Carnival PLC (CUK) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to our business update conference call. I'm Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. Today, I'm joined telephonically by our Chairman, Micky Arison; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. We like to thank you all for joining us this morning.

早上好，歡迎來到我們的業務更新電話會議。我是 Carnival Corporation & plc 的總裁兼首席執行官 Arnold Donald。今天，我們的主席 Micky Arison 通過電話與我會面；我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein；貝絲·羅伯茨 (Beth Roberts)，投資者關係高級副總裁。我們要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

Now before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

現在，在我開始之前，請注意我們對本次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。因此，我必須向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。

Prior to getting into the details of the update, I just first want to say my heart goes out to all those affected by the invasion of Ukraine. I know thousands of members of our Carnival family are directly impacted and have loved ones in the area. We, along with the rest of the world, are praying for a peaceful resolution.

在進入更新的細節之前，我首先想說的是，我的心與所有受烏克蘭入侵影響的人同在。我知道我們嘉年華大家庭的數千名成員直接受到影響，並且在該地區有親人。我們和世界其他地方一樣，正在祈禱和平解決。

Now concerning our business. We're well on our way back to full cruise operations with 3/4 of our capacity having resumed guest operations and a plan to return the balance of the fleet for the summer season. And while the conversation around COVID-19 is greatly reduced, we still have to and are successfully actively managing.

現在關於我們的業務。我們正在順利恢復全面郵輪運營，我們 3/4 的運力已恢復客運運營，併計劃在夏季恢復船隊的平衡。雖然圍繞 COVID-19 的討論大大減少，但我們仍然必須並且正在成功地積極管理。

Our enhanced protocols have helped us become among the safest forms of socializing and travel with far lower incident rates than on land. In fact, we have carried more than 2 million since resuming guest operations. Our guests are enjoying great vacations, and we are enjoying historically high guest satisfaction scores.

我們改進的協議幫助我們成為最安全的社交和旅行方式之一，事故率遠低於陸地。事實上，自恢復客運運營以來，我們已經運送了超過 200 萬人次。我們的客人正在享受美好的假期，我們的客人滿意度得分也創歷史新高。

Of course, we have not lost sight of our highest responsibility and therefore our top priority, which is always compliance; environmental protection; and the health, safety and well-being of everyone, our guests, the people and the communities we touch and serve, and of course, our Carnival family, our team members shipboard and shoreside.

當然，我們並沒有忘記我們的最高責任，因此我們的首要任務始終是合規；環境保護；以及每個人、我們的客人、我們接觸和服務的人們和社區的健康、安全和福祉，當然還有我們的嘉年華大家庭、我們船上和岸上的團隊成員。

I'd like to start today by sincerely thanking our Carnival team members for their significant contributions which collectively have gotten us to where we are today despite a multitude of challenges. Through their collective efforts, so far, we successfully returned 64 ships to guest operations; enabled over 70,000 crew members to return to work, happy, healthy and vaccinated through our team's considerable efforts to secure and distribute vaccines; reopened our 8 owned and operated private destinations and port facilities, which about half of our guests have experienced since resuming operations: Princess Cay, Half Moon Cay, Grand Turk, Mahogany Bay, Amber Cove, Cozumel, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Barcelona; and most importantly, delivered 2.2 million joyful vacations and counting.

今天開始，我要真誠地感謝我們的嘉年華團隊成員做出的重大貢獻，儘管面臨諸多挑戰，但正是他們的共同努力使我們取得了今天的成就。通過他們的共同努力，到目前為止，我們已成功將64艘船返還給客人運營；通過我們團隊為確保和分發疫苗所做的巨大努力，使 70,000 多名船員能夠快樂、健康地重返工作崗位並接種疫苗；重新開放了我們擁有和運營的 8 個私人目的地和港口設施，自恢復運營以來我們大約有一半的客人體驗過這些設施：公主礁、半月礁、大特克島、桃花心灣、琥珀灣、科蘇梅爾、聖克魯斯-德特內里費島和巴塞羅那；最重要的是，提供了 220 萬個愉快的假期，並且還在增加。

At the same time, we also managed down operating costs, reducing our monthly adjusted EBITDA losses by 40% since mid-2020; completed a continuous stream of capital raising, exceeding $29 billion; refinanced more than $9 billion of debt, improving interest rates; amended over 100 different lender agreements; and successfully addressed our maturity out through 2024, all of which culminated in a consistent liquidity position exceeding $7 billion, an integral part of reinforcing stakeholder confidence.

與此同時，我們還降低了運營成本，自 2020 年年中以來每月調整後的 EBITDA 損失減少了 40%；完成連續融資，超過 290 億美元；為超過 90 億美元的債務再融資，提高了利率；修訂了 100 多項不同的貸款協議；並成功解決了我們到 2024 年到期的問題，所有這些最終導致流動性頭寸持續超過 70 億美元，這是增強利益相關者信心的一個組成部分。

At our scale, the sheer volume of these accomplishments is no small feat, yet these challenging operational deliverables were achieved while encountering strong headwinds like Delta; Omicron; complex, constraining and constantly changing regulations and protocols; and more recently, the very troubling invasion of Ukraine, all of which undermine consumer confidence and generated greater friction on cross-border travel, labor, supply chain, itinerary planning and more.

就我們的規模而言，這些成就的數量絕非易事，但這些具有挑戰性的運營可交付成果是在遇到像 Delta 這樣的強大逆風時實現的；奧米克戎;複雜、受限且不斷變化的法規和協議；最近，非常令人不安的烏克蘭入侵事件，所有這些都削弱了消費者的信心，並在跨境旅行、勞動力、供應鏈、行程規劃等方面產生了更大的摩擦。

Now concerning the invasion of Ukraine. For the 4.6% of our capacity that was expected to call on Russian ports in the remainder of the year, we have decided to totally withdraw from Russia and have found attractive alternatives. That said, St. Petersburg was a marquee port for us. And while there have been times where we were unable to offer certain high-yielding itineraries, in this instance, the close-in nature of the deployment change does lead to some regional disruption in recent booking patterns. Now while the invasion has added some volatility to our business and does impact consumer confidence, with 50 years under our belt, we have successfully managed through a plethora of headwinds like spikes in fuel prices, the Gulf War, Arab Spring, September 11, Ebola, Zika, SARS, MERS and more. And once again, the mobility of ships continues to be an asset. Time and time again, we have seen guests travel through challenges. In fact, Carnival Cruise Line turned 50 this month and recently enjoyed its 3 best weeks of bookings since resuming operations.

現在關於入侵烏克蘭。對於預計在今年剩餘時間停靠俄羅斯港口的 4.6% 的運力，我們決定完全撤出俄羅斯，並找到了有吸引力的替代方案。也就是說，聖彼得堡對我們來說是一個重要的港口。雖然有時我們無法提供某些高收益的行程，但在這種情況下，部署變化的近距離性質確實導致近期預訂模式出現一些區域性中斷。現在，雖然入侵給我們的業務增加了一些波動並確實影響了消費者信心，但我們已經 50 年了，我們已經成功地克服了燃料價格飆升、海灣戰爭、阿拉伯之春、9 月 11 日、埃博拉病毒等眾多不利因素、寨卡病毒、SARS、MERS 等。再一次，船舶的機動性仍然是一種資產。一次又一次，我們看到客人們經歷了挑戰。事實上，嘉年華郵輪公司本月迎來了 50 歲生日，最近迎來了自恢復運營以來的 3 週最佳預訂。

As we previously disclosed, we had experienced an impact on booking patterns more broadly at the start of our fiscal year due to the Omicron variant. Despite Omicron, guests carried grew by nearly 20% in the first quarter, of course, albeit less than we would have otherwise achieved without the elevated cancellations which occurred, in part, due to a higher incidence of pretravel positive COVID test results as well as the difficulties that many prospective guests experienced obtaining timely tests. Moreover, that was just an overall impact Omicron had on our society over the course of our first quarter.

正如我們之前披露的那樣，由於 Omicron 變體，我們在財政年度開始時對預訂模式產生了更廣泛的影響。儘管有 Omicron，但第一季度的載客量增長了近 20%，當然，儘管這低於我們在沒有取消取消率的情況下本應達到的水平，部分原因是旅行前 COVID 測試結果呈陽性的發生率更高，以及許多潛在客人在獲得及時測試時遇到的困難。此外，這只是 Omicron 在第一季度對我們社會產生的整體影響。

However, we did maintain price as we said we would, and we fully expect an extended wave season. In fact, we're already achieving occupancies in the month of March that are nearing 70% with more than 40 sailings exceeding 100% occupancy, a testament to the underlying demand for cruise and closer-in nature of booking patterns.

然而，我們確實像我們所說的那樣維持價格，我們完全期待一個延長的浪潮季節。事實上，我們已經在 3 月份實現了接近 70% 的入住率，超過 40 次航行的入住率超過 100%，這證明了郵輪的潛在需求和更接近的預訂模式。

Concerning recent fuel prices, it's certainly not the first time we've seen a dramatic spike in fuel prices. Helping to address that, we aggressively manage our consumption, and we are stepping up our efforts to further reduce consumption. Now historically, we have not used fuel derivatives. And while there is an optics benefit of smoothing earnings, over time, prices have gone up, and they've also come down. But there is an economic cost to derivatives. Over the past few years, we're very glad not to have speculated with few derivatives because it would have been a further drain on cash.

關於最近的燃油價格，這當然不是我們第一次看到燃油價格急劇上漲。為了幫助解決這個問題，我們積極管理我們的消費，我們正在加緊努力進一步減少消費。從歷史上看，我們還沒有使用過燃料衍生物。雖然收入平穩有一個光學上的好處，但隨著時間的推移，價格會上漲，也會下跌。但是衍生品有經濟成本。在過去的幾年裡，我們很高興沒有用少數衍生品進行投機，因為這會進一步消耗現金。

With our proactive efforts to reduce our carbon footprint since 2007, we have reduced our unit fuel consumption nearly 30% and carbon intensity nearly 25% through 2019. And thanks to accelerated efforts across the board, upon reaching full fleet operations, we anticipate that we will achieve a further 10% reduction in unit fuel consumption and 9% reduction in carbon intensity as compared to 2019. In fact, we've been working hard to resume operations, not only a strong operating company, but a more sustainable, better, all-around company.

自 2007 年以來，我們積極努力減少碳足跡，到 2019 年，我們的單位油耗降低了近 30%，碳強度降低了近 25%。由於全面加速努力，在實現全面車隊運營後，我們預計我們與2019年相比，將實現單位油耗進一步降低10%，碳強度降低9%。事實上，我們一直在努力恢復運營，不僅是一個強大的運營公司，而且是一個更可持續、更好、全能型公司。

We made further strides towards those efforts again this quarter. During the quarter, we enhanced our fleet optimization efforts, delivering 3 new ships: Costa Toscana, AIDAcosma and Discovery Princess, bringing the total to 9 larger, more efficient ships delivered since 2019.

本季度，我們再次朝著這些努力邁進了一大步。本季度，我們加強了船隊優化工作，交付了 3 艘新船：Costa Toscana、AIDAcosma 和 Discovery Princess，使自 2019 年以來交付的更大、更高效的船舶總數達到 9 艘。

Moreover, we've announced the removal of an additional 3 smaller, less efficient ships, bringing the total to 22 ships to be removed from the fleet also since 2019. The accelerated removal of these less efficient ships has lowered capacity growth to 2.2% compound annually from the previous 4.5% through 2025, which should enable us to capitalize on pent-up demand on intentionally constrained capacity.

此外，我們還宣布拆除另外 3 艘體積較小、效率較低的船舶，使自 2019 年以來從船隊中拆除的船舶總數達到 22 艘。加速拆除這些效率較低的船舶已將運力複合增長率降低至 2.2%從以前的 4.5% 到 2025 年，每年都在增長，這應該使我們能夠利用有意限制產能的被壓抑需求。

The fleet optimization effort will also foster higher revenues through a 7 percentage point increase in premium-priced balcony cabins and an even better platform for onboard revenue opportunities as well as generating a 5% reduction in ship-level unit costs, excluding fuel, going forward, enabling us to deliver more revenue to the bottom line.

船隊優化工作還將通過將高價陽台客艙增加 7 個百分點和更好的船上收入機會平台以及將船舶單位成本（不包括燃料）降低 5% 來促進更高的收入。 ，使我們能夠為底線帶來更多收入。

Upon returning to full operations, nearly 1/4 of our capacity will consist of newly delivered ships, expediting our return to profitability and improving our return on invested capital. Again, we have long since recognize the importance of reducing our carbon footprint, having peaked our absolute carbon emissions more than a decade ago. And we are continuing to innovate to effect change.

恢復全面運營後，我們近 1/4 的運力將由新交付的船舶組成，從而加快我們恢復盈利並提高投資資本回報率。同樣，我們早就認識到減少碳足蹟的重要性，我們的絕對碳排放量在十多年前就已達到頂峰。我們正在繼續創新以實現變革。

AIDAprima will become our first ship to pilot battery power, enabling her to optimize the efficiency of the engines while at sea, reducing emissions. We also signed groundbreaking agreements through our subsidiary, Ecospray, to partner in the production of green bio-LNG generated from waste sources. In addition, we continue to invest to drive energy efficiency, rolling out our fourth in a series of 23 ships with innovative air lubrication system, which reduces drag on the haul and generates nearly 5% reduction in carbon emissions.

AIDAprima 將成為我們第一艘試驗電池動力的船舶，使她能夠在海上優化發動機效率，減少排放。我們還通過我們的子公司 Ecospray 簽署了開創性協議，合作生產從廢物源產生的綠色生物液化天然氣。此外，我們繼續投資以提高能源效率，在 23 艘配備創新空氣潤滑系統的船舶系列中推出了第四艘，該系統減少了運輸阻力，並將碳排放量減少了近 5%。

We've also taken strides to reduce our impact on climate change and mitigate climate risk in our business. We are working toward full adoption of the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, that's TCFD, and have begun by reinforcing our strong governance framework with my assuming the role of Chief Climate Officer and with the formation of our Strategic Risk Evaluation Committee to further support climate-related strategic decision-making and risk management processes.

我們還採取了一些措施來減少我們對氣候變化的影響並減輕我們業務中的氣候風險。我們正在努力全面採納氣候相關財務信息披露工作組的建議，即 TCFD，並已開始加強我們強有力的治理框架，我擔任首席氣候官一職，並組建了我們的戰略風險評估委員會進一步支持與氣候相關的戰略決策和風險管理流程。

Having broadened our commitments to ESG with the introduction of our 2030 sustainability goals and our 2050 aspirations, we are tracking ahead on both our important food waste and single-use plastic reduction efforts. And we are nearing completion on the rollout of more than 600 food waste biodigesters across our fleet, the most advanced technology of its kind.

通過引入我們的 2030 年可持續發展目標和我們的 2050 年願景，我們擴大了對 ESG 的承諾，我們正在跟踪我們重要的食物垃圾和一次性塑料減少工作。我們即將完成在我們的車隊中推出 600 多個食物垃圾生物消化器的工作，這是同類產品中最先進的技術。

We believe we have clearly maximized our return to service, and we have positioned our company well to withstand volatility on our path to profitability. Throughout the pause, we have been proactively managing to resume operations as an even stronger and more efficient operating company to maximize cash generation and to deliver double-digit return on invested capital over time. Again, our cash flow will be the primary driver to return to investment-grade credit over time, creating greater shareholder value.

我們相信，我們顯然已經最大限度地提高了服務回報率，並且我們已經做好了公司的定位，能夠承受盈利之路上的波動。在整個暫停期間，我們一直在積極設法恢復運營，成為一家更強大、更高效的運營公司，以最大限度地產生現金，並隨著時間的推移實現兩位數的投資資本回報率。同樣，隨著時間的推移，我們的現金流將成為恢復投資級信用的主要驅動力，從而創造更大的股東價值。

There have been multiple demonstrations of the resilience of the human spirit and the resilience of our business. It is heartening that our company can be a part of bringing our guests much-needed social enjoyment with family and with friends, along with the excitement of experiencing new destinations and cultures, all dearly missed throughout the pandemic.

人類精神的韌性和我們企業的韌性已經得到了多次證明。令人振奮的是，我們公司可以參與其中，為我們的客人帶來與家人和朋友急需的社交樂趣，以及體驗新目的地和新文化的興奮感，而這一切在整個大流行病期間都是非常懷念的。

I referenced Carnival Cruise Line celebrating 50 years. 50 years, frankly, seems such a short time ago that Ted Arison started Carnival Cruise Line, and along with Micky, built the modern-day cruise industry, bringing joy for millions upon on millions of guests and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs with all that means and creating better quality of life around the world.

我參考了慶祝 50 週年的嘉年華郵輪公司。 50 年，坦率地說，似乎是在不久之前，泰德·阿里森 (Ted Arison) 創辦了嘉年華郵輪公司，並與米奇 (Micky) 一起打造了現代郵輪業，為數百萬遊客帶來歡樂，並創造了數十萬個就業機會這意味著並在全世界創造更好的生活質量。

Of course, it cannot have been done without the overwhelming support from everyone. So once again, thank you to our valued guests. Thank you to our travel agent partners. Thank you to our home port and destination communities. Thank you to our suppliers and other many stakeholders. And of course, thank you to our shareholders, bondholders, banks and the export credit agencies for your continued confidence in us and for your ongoing support. And again, I would like to thank our team members for their dedication, their commitment and their outstanding execution. We are excited to welcome everyone back onboard.

當然，這離不開大家的大力支持。再次感謝我們尊貴的客人。感謝我們的旅行社合作夥伴。感謝我們的母港和目的地社區。感謝我們的供應商和其他許多利益相關者。當然，還要感謝我們的股東、債券持有人、銀行和出口信貸機構，感謝你們對我們的持續信任和持續支持。我要再次感謝我們的團隊成員的奉獻精神、承諾和出色的執行力。我們很高興歡迎大家回到船上。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Arnold. I'll start today with a review of guest cruise operations, along with a summary of our first quarter cash flows, then I'll provide an update on booking trends and finish up with adjusted EBITDA and net income expectations.

謝謝你，阿諾德。今天，我將首先回顧賓客郵輪業務，並總結我們第一季度的現金流量，然後我將提供預訂趨勢的最新信息，並以調整後的 EBITDA 和淨收入預期作為結尾。

Turning to guest cruise operations. During the first quarter 2022, we restarted 10 additional ships, resulting in 60% of our fleet capacity in guest cruise operations for the whole of the first quarter. This was a substantial increase from 47% during the fourth quarter 2021. As of today, 75% of our fleet capacity has resumed guest cruise operations.

轉向客人郵輪業務。在 2022 年第一季度，我們重新啟動了 10 艘額外的船隻，導致整個第一季度我們的船隊容量的 60% 用於遊客郵輪運營。這比 2021 年第四季度的 47% 有了大幅增長。截至今天，我們 75% 的船隊容量已經恢復了郵輪運營。

Agility to continuously adapt to the ever-changing landscape has been one of our greatest strengths during the pandemic. In the first quarter, we continued to demonstrate this scale as we adjusted restart dates to optimize our guest cruise operations. And we now expect each brand's full fleet to be back in guest cruise operations for its respective summer season where we historically generate the largest share of our operating income.

在大流行期間，不斷適應不斷變化的環境的敏捷性一直是我們最大的優勢之一。在第一季度，我們繼續展示這種規模，因為我們調整了重啟日期以優化我們的郵輪運營。現在，我們預計每個品牌的全部船隊都將在各自的夏季恢復遊客郵輪運營，而我們歷來創造了最大的營業收入份額。

I am happy to report that just last week, we announced plans for our Australia restart, commencing at the end of May after the government advised that cruising would be permitted beginning in April. For the first quarter, occupancy was 54% across the ships in service. We never expected to achieve our historical 100-plus percent occupancies for the first quarter since many of these sailings were confirmed just a number of months before departure which resulted in less than the normal booking lead time. However, we had anticipated first quarter occupancy would exceed the 58% achieved in the fourth quarter of 2021.

我很高興地報告，就在上週，我們宣布了澳大利亞重啟計劃，該計劃將於 5 月底開始，此前政府建議從 4 月開始允許巡航。第一季度，在役船舶的入住率為 54%。我們從未期望在第一季度實現歷史上超過 100% 的入住率，因為其中許多航班在出發前幾個月才得到確認，導致比正常預訂提前期短。然而，我們曾預計第一季度的入住率將超過 2021 年第四季度達到的 58%。

We started the quarter with over 55% cabin occupancy booked for the first quarter and expected to improve upon that during the quarter. However, during the first quarter 2022, as a result of the Omicron variant, we experienced an impact on bookings for near-term sailings, including higher cancellations resulting from an increase in pretravel positive test results, challenges in the availability of timely pretravel tests and the disruption that Omicron caused on society during this time. All of this inhibited our ability to build on our cabin occupancy book position for the first quarter 2022 during the first quarter, resulting in occupancy for the first quarter 2022 at 54% being lower than the 58% occupancy we achieved in the fourth quarter of 2021.

本季度開始時，我們第一季度預訂的機艙入住率超過 55%，預計本季度將有所改善。然而，在 2022 年第一季度，由於 Omicron 變體，我們對近期航行的預訂產生了影響，包括由於旅行前陽性測試結果的增加導致更多取消、及時旅行前測試可用性方面的挑戰以及Omicron 在此期間對社會造成的破壞。所有這些都阻礙了我們在第一季度鞏固 2022 年第一季度客艙入住率的能力，導致 2022 年第一季度的入住率為 54%，低於我們在 2021 年第四季度實現的 58% 的入住率.

Despite all that, during the first quarter, we carried over 1 million guests, which was nearly a 20% increase from the fourth quarter 2021. Once again, our brands executed extremely well with Net Promoter Scores continuing at elevated levels compared to pre-COVID scores.

儘管如此，在第一季度，我們接待了超過 100 萬名客人，比 2021 年第四季度增長了近 20%。我們的品牌再次表現出色，與 COVID 之前相比，淨推薦值繼續保持較高水平分數。

Revenue per passenger day for the first quarter 2022 increased approximately 7.5% compared to a strong 2019 despite our lucrative world cruises and exotic voyages being shelved this year. Our revenue management teams held on price when we experienced an impact on bookings for near-term sailings, optimizing our longer-term prospects for future revenue and pricing.

儘管今年我們擱置了利潤豐厚的世界郵輪和異國航行，但與強勁的 2019 年相比，2022 年第一季度每乘客日收入增長了約 7.5%。當我們的近期航行預訂受到影響時，我們的收入管理團隊堅持價格，優化我們未來收入和定價的長期前景。

Once again, our onboard and other revenue per diems were up significantly in the first quarter 2022 versus the first quarter 2019, in part, due to the bundle packages as well as onboard credits utilized by guests from cruises canceled during the pause. We had great growth in onboard and other per diems on both sides of the Atlantic. Increases in bar, casino, shops, spa and Internet led the way onboard. Over the past 2.5 years, we have offered and our guests have chosen more and more bundled package options. In the end, we will see the benefit of these bundled packages in onboard and other revenue.

與 2019 年第一季度相比，我們在 2022 年第一季度的船上和其他每日津貼收入再次顯著增加，部分原因是捆綁套餐以及客人在暫停期間取消的遊輪使用的船上積分。我們在大西洋兩岸的船上和其他每日津貼都有很大的增長。酒吧、賭場、商店、水療中心和互聯網的增長引領了船上的潮流。在過去的 2.5 年裡，我們提供了越來越多的捆綁套餐選項，而我們的客人也選擇了越來越多的套餐選項。最後，我們將看到這些捆綁包在船上和其他收入中的好處。

As a result of these bundled packages, the line between passenger ticket and onboard revenue is blurred. For accounting purposes, we allocate the total price paid by the guests between the 2 categories. Therefore, the best way to judge our performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics.

由於這些捆綁包，客票和船上收入之間的界限變得模糊。出於會計目的，我們將客人支付的總價分配給這兩個類別。因此，判斷我們表現的最佳方式是參考我們的郵輪總收入指標。

On the costs side, our adjusted cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day, or ALBD as it is more commonly called, for the first quarter 2022 was up 25%. I did say adjusted cruise costs and not net cruise costs, a term we had previously used. The calculation of adjusted cruise costs and net cruise costs are the same. However, we felt the new name more appropriately lined up with our other non-GAAP measures of adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA, which are also referenced in our business update press release issued earlier this morning.

在成本方面，我們在 2022 年第一季度調整後的遊輪成本（不包括每個可用下泊位日的燃料）或更常見的 ALBD 上漲了 25%。我確實說過調整後的遊輪成本，而不是淨遊輪成本，這是我們以前使用過的術語。調整後的遊輪成本和淨遊輪成本的計算是相同的。然而，我們認為新名稱更符合我們其他非 GAAP 調整後淨收入和調整後 EBITDA 指標，今天上午早些時候發布的業務更新新聞稿中也提到了這些指標。

The increase in adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD is driven essentially by 5 things: first, the cost of a portion of the fleet being in pause status; second, restart-related expenses; third, 15 ships being in dry dock during the quarter, which resulted in nearly double the number of dry-dock days during the first quarter versus the first quarter 2019; fourth, the cost of maintaining enhanced health and safety protocols; and finally, inflation. Remember, that because a portion of the fleet was in pause status during the first quarter and the higher number of dry-dock days, we spread costs over less ALBDs.

每個 ALBD 不帶燃料的調整後巡航成本的增加主要由 5 件事驅動：首先，部分船隊處於暫停狀態的成本；二、重啟相關費用；第三，本季度有 15 艘船在幹船塢，與 2019 年第一季度相比，第一季度的干船塢天數幾乎翻了一番；第四，維持強化健康和安全規程的成本；最後，通貨膨脹。請記住，由於部分船隊在第一季度處於停工狀態並且幹船塢天數較多，我們將成本分攤到較少的 ALBD 上。

I did want to point out that in the second quarter of 2022, we expect a further 24 ships to enter dry dock as part of our resumption of cruising ramp-up, optimizing our dry-dock schedule while the ships are not in service and ensuring that the ships look great when they welcome their first guests back onboard. This will again result in a doubling of the dry-dock days during the quarter compared to 2019 which will impact adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD during the second quarter. We anticipate that many of these costs and expenses driving adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD higher will end during 2022 and will not reoccur in 2023.

我確實想指出，在 2022 年第二季度，我們預計將有另外 24 艘船進入乾船塢，作為我們恢復巡航加速的一部分，優化我們的干船塢時間表，同時船舶不在服務中，並確保當他們歡迎第一批客人回到船上時，這些船看起來很棒。與 2019 年相比，這將再次導致本季度的干船塢天數增加一倍，這將影響第二季度每個 ALBD 調整後的不含燃料的郵輪成本。我們預計，許多這些成本和支出推動調整後的巡航成本，每 ALBD 沒有燃料更高，將在 2022 年結束，並且不會在 2023 年再次發生。

As a result of all of the above, we expect to see a significant improvement in adjusted cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD, from the first half of 2022 to the second half of 2022 with a low double-digit increase expected for the full year 2022 compared to 2019.

由於上述所有原因，我們預計從 2022 年上半年到 2022 年下半年調整後的郵輪成本（不包括每 ALBD 的燃料）將有顯著改善，預計全年將有兩位數的低增長2022 年與 2019 年相比。

Next, I'll provide a summary of our first quarter cash flows. We ended the first quarter 2022 with $7.2 billion in liquidity versus $9.4 million at the end of the fourth quarter. Looking forward, we believe we remain well positioned given our liquidity. The change in liquidity during the quarter was driven essentially by 4 things: first, an improved negative adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion due to our ongoing resumption of guest cruise operations despite the impact of the Omicron variant. We had thought adjusted EBITDA was going to improve more. But as I said before, the Omicron variant inhibited our ability to grow occupancy during the quarter which limited the improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Second, our investment of $400 million in capital expenditures, net of export credits. Third, $500 million of debt principal payments; and fourth, $400 million of interest expense during the quarter.

接下來，我將提供我們第一季度現金流量的摘要。截至 2022 年第一季度末，我們的流動資金為 72 億美元，而第四季度末的流動資金為 940 萬美元。展望未來，我們相信，鑑於我們的流動性，我們仍然處於有利地位。本季度流動性的變化主要由 4 個因素驅動：首先，儘管受到 Omicron 變體的影響，但由於我們持續恢復遊客遊輪運營，調整後的 EBITDA 負值改善為 10 億美元。我們原以為調整後的 EBITDA 會改善更多。但正如我之前所說，Omicron 變體抑制了我們在本季度增加入住率的能力，從而限制了調整後 EBITDA 的改善。其次，我們在扣除出口信貸後的 4 億美元資本支出投資。第三，5億美元的債務本金支付；第四，本季度的利息支出為 4 億美元。

Now let's look at booking trends. Since the middle of January, we have seen an improving trend in booking volumes for future sailings. Recent weekly booking volumes have been higher than at any point since the restart of guest cruise operations. During the first quarter, we increased our booked occupancy position for the second half of 2022, albeit not at the same pace as a typical wave season due to the Omicron variant. As a result, the cumulative advanced book position for the second half of 2022 is at the lower end of the historical range.

現在讓我們看看預訂趨勢。自 1 月中旬以來，我們看到未來航行的預訂量呈上升趨勢。自客輪運營重啟以來，最近每週的預訂量都高於以往任何時候。在第一季度，我們增加了 2022 年下半年的預訂入住率，儘管由於 Omicron 的變體，與典型的波浪季節的增長速度不同。因此，2022 年下半年的累計超前賬面持倉處於歷史區間的下限。

However, we believe we are well situated with our current second half 2022 book position given the recent improvement in booking volumes, coupled with closer-in booking patterns and our expectation for an extended wave season. We continue to expect that occupancy will build throughout 2022 and return to historical levels in 2023. And importantly, I am happy to report that prices on these bookings for the second half of 2022 continue to be higher with or without future cruise credits, or more commonly called FCCs, normalized for bundled packages as compared to 2019 sailings.

然而，鑑於最近預訂量的改善、更近的預訂模式以及我們對延長的浪潮季節的預期，我們相信我們目前的 2022 年下半年預訂狀況很好。我們繼續預計入住率將在整個 2022 年增加，並在 2023 年恢復到歷史水平。重要的是，我很高興地報告，無論是否有未來郵輪積分，2022 年下半年這些預訂的價格將繼續上漲，或更多通常稱為 FCC，與 2019 年航行相比，針對捆綁包裹進行了標準化。

Our cumulative advanced book position for the first half of 2023 continues to be at the higher end of the historical range, also at higher prices with or without FCCs normalized for bundled packages as compared to 2019 sailings. This is a great achievement given pricing on bookings for 2019 sailings is a tough comparison as that was a high watermark for historical yields.

我們 2023 年上半年的累計預購訂單繼續處於歷史範圍的較高端，與 2019 年的航行相比，無論有無 FCC 對捆綁包裹進行標準化，價格也更高。這是一個偉大的成就，因為 2019 年航行的預訂定價是一個艱難的比較，因為這是歷史收益率的高水位線。

I will finish up with our adjusted EBITDA and net income expectations. We all know that booking trends are a leading indicator of the health of our business. With improved recent booking trends leading the way, driving customer deposits higher, positive adjusted EBITDA is clearly within our sights. Over the next few months, we expect ship-level cash contribution to grow as more ships return to service and as we build on our occupancy percentages.

我將完成我們調整後的 EBITDA 和淨收入預期。我們都知道預訂趨勢是我們業務健康狀況的領先指標。隨著近期預訂趨勢的改善，推動客戶存款增加，積極的調整後 EBITDA 顯然在我們的視線之內。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們預計隨著更多船舶恢復服務以及我們在入住率基礎上的提高，船舶層面的現金貢獻將會增長。

However, as I've already said, adjusted EBITDA over the first half of 2022 has been or will be impacted by the restart-related spending and dry dock expenses as 39 ships, over 40% of our fleet, will have been in dry dock during the first half of fiscal 2022. Given all these factors combined, we expect monthly adjusted EBITDA to continue to improve and turn consistently positive at the beginning of our summer season.

然而，正如我已經說過的，2022 年上半年調整後的 EBITDA 已經或將受到與重啟相關的支出和乾船塢費用的影響，因為 39 艘船（占我們船隊的 40% 以上）將停在幹船塢在 2022 財年上半年。考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計每月調整後的 EBITDA 將繼續改善並在夏季開始時持續轉為正值。

We continue to expect a net loss for the second quarter of 2022 on both a U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis. However, we expect a profit for the third quarter of 2022. For the full year, we do expect a net loss. Looking to brighter days ahead in 2023, with the full fleet back in service all year, 8% more capacity than 2019 and improved fleet profile with nearly 1/4 of our capacity consisting of newly delivered ships, continuing momentum on our outstanding Net Promoter Scores and occupancy returning to historical levels, we are looking forward to providing memorable vacation experiences to nearly 14 million guests and generating potentially greater adjusted EBITDA than 2019.

我們繼續預計 2022 年第二季度在美國公認會計原則和調整後的基礎上都會出現淨虧損。但是，我們預計 2022 年第三季度將實現盈利。對於全年，我們確實預計會出現淨虧損。展望 2023 年更美好的日子，整個船隊全年恢復服務，運力比 2019 年增加 8%，船隊概況得到改善，近 1/4 的運力由新交付的船舶組成，我們出色的淨推薦值繼續保持增長勢頭和入住率恢復到歷史水平，我們期待為近 1400 萬客人提供難忘的假期體驗，並產生比 2019 年更高的調整後 EBITDA。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Arnold.

現在我會把電話轉回給阿諾德。

Thank you, David. Operator, please open the call for questions.

謝謝你，大衛。接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll proceed with our first question on the line from Robin Farley with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們將繼續回答 Robin Farley 與 UBS 在線提出的第一個問題。

Great. I have one revenue and one expense question. For expenses, you talked about it being up -- this is the nonfuel expense, up 25% in Q1 and sort of up low double digits for the year. So if that's kind of up 11% or 12% for the year, it sounds like it would be close to flat with 2019 by the end of this year. So I wanted to make sure we're thinking about those numbers right. And your comments included the idea that with the ship sales, you'll have a 5% reduction in operating expense, ex fuel, in 2023 versus '19. So I know you're not sort of giving full guidance for '23, but is that the way to think about nonfuel expense being kind of flat by the end of this year and then kind of down 5% next year? That's the expense question.

偉大的。我有一個收入問題和一個支出問題。對於費用，你談到它正在上升——這是非燃料費用，第一季度增長了 25%，全年增長了兩位數。因此，如果今年增長 11% 或 12%，那麼到今年年底，這聽起來將與 2019 年持平。所以我想確保我們正確地考慮了這些數字。你的評論包括這樣的想法，即通過船舶銷售，與 19 年相比，2023 年運營費用（不包括燃料）將減少 5%。所以我知道你並沒有為 23 年提供全面的指導，但這是考慮到今年年底非燃料費用持平然後明年下降 5% 的方式嗎？那就是費用問題。

And then on the revenue side, obviously, lots of positive news about the incremental volume build. I wonder if you could comment a little bit more specifically on sort of European itineraries versus the rest which -- just to think about how price may be holding up outside of Europe and then also how the incremental European cruises -- you might have a lot at high prices from kind of the last 12 months that had been shifted there for the summer but maybe how that incremental European demand is looking in terms of price impact.

然後在收入方面，很明顯，有很多關於增量構建的積極消息。我想知道你是否可以更具體地評論一下歐洲行程與其他行程的區別——想想歐洲以外的價格可能會如何上漲，然後歐洲遊輪的增量如何——你可能會有很多過去 12 個月的高價已經轉移到夏季，但也許歐洲需求的增加在價格影響方面的表現如何。

Robin, I'll have David comment a little bit on both. But directionally, on the cost question, as he articulated, we had a lot of capacity out in dry dock, et cetera. So we're doing stuff over a smaller number of birds in terms of looking at the cost increases, and we had lots of onetime costs and so on. So we're not giving guidance for next year. But as he indicated, as you look through the second half of the year and see how the cost increases will be softer, we're pointing in the right direction. And we've done a lot of things going forward, including with the change in the fleet with a significant part of our capacity 25% being new ships which are inherently more efficient but also all the active management, things we've done with the existing fleet, the pre-existing fleet, exiting less efficient ships and so on and then shoreside as well. We're doing a number of things to offset inflation and to just make ourselves a better company from a cost infrastructure standpoint.

羅賓，我會讓大衛對兩者發表一些評論。但在方向上，正如他所闡述的那樣，在成本問題上，我們在幹船塢等方面有很多能力。因此，就成本增加而言，我們正在對較少數量的鳥類進行研究，而且我們有很多一次性成本等等。所以我們不會為明年提供指導。但正如他所指出的那樣，當你回顧今年下半年並看到成本增長將如何放緩時，我們正指向正確的方向。我們在未來做了很多事情，包括改變船隊，我們有很大一部分運力 25% 是新船，它們本質上更有效率，但也有所有積極的管理，我們已經完成的事情現有船隊、現有船隊、退出效率較低的船舶等等，然後是岸上。我們正在做很多事情來抵消通貨膨脹，並從成本基礎設施的角度讓我們自己成為一家更好的公司。

So David, I'll let you comment on the cost, and we can get back to the revenue. David, go ahead.

所以大衛，我會讓你對成本發表評論，我們可以重新獲得收入。大衛，繼續。

Yes. So directionally, Robin, your math is correct, I mean, overall speaking. To get back to a low double digit for the year, you do have to sort of get directionally towards that flattish area by the end of the year.

是的。所以在方向上，羅賓，你的數學是正確的，我的意思是，總體而言。要回到今年的低兩位數，你必須在年底前定向到那個平坦的區域。

But let's -- I'll remind you of one thing that I've said many times before. Costs do vary by quarter because of a variety of things: dry dock, advertising, et cetera. So as Arnold said, we're not giving guidance for 2023. And overall, he mentioned all of the, I guess, tailwinds that help us achieve improved operating costs and adjusted cruise costs for 2023.

但是讓我們——我會提醒你我之前說過很多次的一件事。由於各種因素，成本確實會因季度而異：幹船塢、廣告等。因此，正如阿諾德所說，我們沒有給出 2023 年的指導。總的來說，我想他提到了所有有助於我們在 2023 年實現運營成本改善和調整郵輪成本的順風因素。

I will also mention that we have 8% more capacity, so we get leverage versus 2019. We also get some shoreside SG&A leverage. But I will remind you, it is 4 years of inflation that is the headwind. So that is a challenge, and so we will do everything we can to properly manage the cost for 2023. But it is a little bit premature for us to give guidance at this point.

我還要提到的是，我們的產能增加了 8%，因此與 2019 年相比，我們獲得了槓桿作用。我們還獲得了一些岸邊 SG&A 槓桿作用。但我會提醒你，逆風是 4 年的通貨膨脹。所以這是一個挑戰，所以我們將盡一切努力妥善管理 2023 年的成本。但我們現在給出指導還為時過早。

Thanks, David. Do you want to start on the revenue, David? And I can wrap up. Go ahead.

謝謝，大衛。你想從收入開始嗎，戴維？我可以結束了。前進。

Yes. So on the revenue side, what's interesting, when you look at all of the different itineraries, we had mentioned the uptick in recent booking volumes. And we're actually seeing that uptick across all the different itineraries, whether it be in the Caribbean, in the Med and also even parts of Northern Europe. The exception, of course, is we did have, as Arnold said in his notes, I guess, 4.6% of our capacity for the remainder of the year. That's actually 3.8% for the whole year, touched on -- went to St. Petersburg. And we did, I guess, changed -- we moved 2 ships, and we changed the attractive itineraries for the remaining ships that are in the Baltic to go to other ports. So we have seen the bookings for those ships impacted. But remember, it's early days, and we just made the changes to those itineraries. So we've got to get the message out.

是的。因此，在收入方面，有趣的是，當您查看所有不同的行程時，我們提到了最近預訂量的上升。事實上，我們看到所有不同的行程都在增加，無論是在加勒比海、地中海，甚至是北歐的部分地區。當然，例外情況是，正如阿諾德在他的筆記中所說，我猜我們在今年剩餘時間裡確實擁有 4.6% 的產能。這實際上是全年的 3.8%，觸及 - 去了聖彼得堡。我猜，我們確實改變了——我們移動了 2 艘船，我們改變了有吸引力的路線，讓波羅的海的其餘船隻前往其他港口。因此，我們已經看到這些船舶的預訂受到影響。但請記住，現在還處於早期階段，我們只是對這些行程進行了更改。所以我們必須把消息傳達出去。

But for all of the rest of the itineraries, across the board, whether they be in the Med, East, West Med, Caribbean and other parts of the world, we are seeing good solid booking trends at good solid pricing. We mentioned that our revenue management teams are holding pricing, and we are seeing good volume. I will point out that for the second -- bookings for the second quarter, we've even seen volumes that exceeded the 2019 levels, which I guess is not surprising from the perspective that we have more inventory to sell for the second quarter than we did for 2019. But it's great that the demand is there, and we are seeing the volume. And as Arnold indicated in his notes, in the month of March, we are seeing occupancies approach 70%. And we even had I think he said 40 voyages where occupancy exceeded 100% or expect to exceed 100%.

但對於所有其他行程，無論是在地中海、東部、西部地中海、加勒比海還是世界其他地區，我們都看到了穩定的預訂趨勢和穩定的價格。我們提到我們的收入管理團隊正在保持定價，並且我們看到了良好的銷量。我要指出的是，對於第二季度的預訂，我們甚至看到了超過 2019 年水平的數量，從我們第二季度要售出的庫存多於我們的角度來看，我想這並不奇怪為 2019 年做了。但很高興有需求，而且我們看到了數量。正如阿諾德在他的筆記中指出的那樣，在 3 月份，我們看到入住率接近 70%。我認為他說我們甚至有 40 次航行，其中入住率超過 100% 或預計超過 100%。

So I think we are well positioned around the globe. And we'll also work very hard to get those remaining itineraries booking again now that we readjusted them with other attractive ports.

所以我認為我們在全球處於有利地位。既然我們重新調整了其他有吸引力的港口，我們也會非常努力地讓那些剩餘的行程再次預訂。

No, that's great. I think that commentary addresses so much of what investors have been concerned about. And then just to clarify, did I mishear when -- I thought I heard you say 5% reduction in operating expense, ex fuel, by 2023 versus '19? Did I -- was that 5%?

不，那太好了。我認為評論解決了投資者一直關注的很多問題。然後澄清一下，我是不是聽錯了——我以為我聽到你說到 2023 年與 19 年相比，運營費用（不包括燃料）減少 5%？我是——那是 5% 嗎？

Yes. So Arnold had indicated that 5% was in ship operating expenses, and that's on an apples-to-apples basis, putting everything else aside as a result of the fleet optimization, just looking at a comparison to 2019. Of course, there's changes in itinerary. There's also -- which impact that. There's inflation which impacts that. There's other cost savings that we're working hard. That was just the fleet optimization portion, and that was obviously a great tailwind to help us reduce costs as we go into 2023.

是的。所以 Arnold 曾表示 5% 是船舶運營費用，這是在同類基礎上，由於船隊優化而將其他一切放在一邊，只看與 2019 年的比較。當然，有變化行程。還有 - 這會產生影響。通貨膨脹會影響這一點。我們正在努力節省其他成本。那隻是機隊優化部分，這顯然是一個很好的順風，可以幫助我們在進入 2023 年時降低成本。

And we'll proceed to our next question on the line from Steve Wieczynski from Stifel.

我們將繼續 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski 的下一個問題。

So I want to ask about onboard revenues, and I think there's a fear now that consumers might start pulling back on spending given -- whether it's higher fuel prices or other economic headwinds that might be out there. So given you guys have real-time data in terms of onboard spend, have you guys seen anything over the last couple of weeks that would make you believe the consumer might be starting to slow down once they come onboard? And I guess is there -- have you seen any difference in spending patterns across your different geographies?

所以我想問一下船上收入，我認為現在人們擔心消費者可能會開始縮減支出——無論是燃油價格上漲還是其他可能出現的經濟逆風。因此，鑑於你們在船上消費方面擁有實時數據，你們在過去幾週內是否看到任何讓您相信消費者一旦上船後可能會開始放緩的事情？我想是不是——你有沒有發現不同地區的消費模式有什麼不同？

Haven't seen any particular slowdown or anything like that in terms of onboard spend. It's been very strong, has continued to be healthy around the world. It has been up everywhere, so I don't see major distinctions from one geography to the next.

在船上支出方面，還沒有看到任何特別的放緩或類似的情況。它非常強大，在世界範圍內繼續保持健康。它無處不在，所以我看不出一個地區與另一個地區之間的重大區別。

As we get to full occupancy and we carry more kids in the summer, that kind of thing, you can see the kind of per diems maybe will change a little bit. But overall, the spending is significantly up and has continued to be so far.

隨著我們完全入住並且我們在夏天帶著更多的孩子，那種事情，你可以看到每日津貼的種類可能會有所改變。但總體而言，支出顯著增加，並且一直持續至今。

Okay. Got you. And then second question would be around the liquidity position, and It looks like you burned around $700 million a month in the first quarter. And I guess with some disruptions around Omicron and now the war and fuel, just maybe wondering at what level of liquidity you would start to get, I don't know if I'd use the word, uneasy. And I guess a better way to ask that question might be, do you see anything on the horizon that would make you believe that you might need to increase your liquidity base moving forward?

好的。明白了然後第二個問題是關於流動性狀況，看起來你在第一季度每月消耗了大約 7 億美元。而且我猜想隨著 Omicron 周圍的一些中斷以及現在的戰爭和燃料，可能只是想知道你會開始獲得什麼水平的流動性，我不知道我是否會使用這個詞，不安。我想問這個問題的更好方法可能是，你是否看到地平線上的任何事情會讓你相信你可能需要增加你的流動性基礎？

We've had good liquidity through this period. We will obviously continue to monitor. But as we move ahead and get more of our ships sailing and are able to generate obviously more revenue and more customer deposits, et cetera, at this stage, we feel we're in good shape on liquidity and see that going forward. If something changes, of course, obviously, we'll report at that time. But right now, we feel good about our liquidity position. David? Go ahead, David.

在此期間，我們擁有良好的流動性。我們顯然會繼續監控。但隨著我們繼續前進，讓更多的船隻航行，並且能夠產生明顯更多的收入和更多的客戶存款，等等，在這個階段，我們覺得我們的流動性狀況良好，並看到這一點向前發展。如果有什麼變化，當然，很明顯，我們會在那個時候報告。但現在，我們對我們的流動性狀況感覺良好。大衛？去吧，大衛。

Can I just say, first of all, the one thing on the onboard revenue, the only thing I want to add that Arnold didn't mention is we have been raising price onboard. There's been -- there is strong demand. And obviously, with the environment being what it is, there's been an opportunity to raise price, and we've been capturing that opportunity.

我可以說，首先，關於船上收入的一件事，我唯一想補充的是阿諾德沒有提到的是我們一直在提高船上的價格。一直有 - 需求強勁。顯然，隨著環境的發展，有機會提高價格，我們一直在抓住這個機會。

And as far as the liquidity, I guess, the 2 things that we continue to think about, in addition to what Arnold mentioned, is we think about refinancing our 2L notes which are still out there. And of course, we have $3 billion of maturities in 2023 that we think about what is the optimal time to refinance that. But other than that, I just want to add those concepts as we think through those in the ensuing months and quarters ahead.

至於流動性，我想，除了阿諾德提到的之外，我們繼續考慮的兩件事是我們考慮為仍然存在的 2L 票據再融資。當然，我們有 2023 年到期的 30 億美元，我們會考慮再融資的最佳時間。但除此之外，我只想在我們在接下來的幾個月和幾個季度中考慮這些概念時添加這些概念。

And we'll get to our next question on the line from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

我們將從 James Hardiman 與 Citi 的線上開始我們的下一個問題。

A couple of my questions on the pricing front. So you guys spoke to revenue per passenger cruise day being up 7.5%. I think that number for the November quarter was plus 4%, which is obviously encouraging, right? I think the concern was that pricing benefited from the fact that these cruise ships weren't full and that the last, whatever, 20% to 30% of the rooms would come in at a discount, and so we couldn't really take that pricing strength to the bank. But this is a sample of 2, obviously. That pricing actually accelerated as the ships got more full from 4Q to 1Q. So maybe speak to how we should contextualize these pricing numbers. Is there any reason to think that those will come in a bit as we get the last, call it, 30% of occupancy? Or is there the opportunity for that to continue to accelerate?

我在定價方面的幾個問題。所以你們談到每個乘客遊輪日的收入增長了 7.5%。我認為 11 月季度的數字增長了 4%，這顯然令人鼓舞，對吧？我認為令人擔憂的是定價受益於這些遊輪沒有滿員的事實，而且最後 20% 到 30% 的房間會打折，所以我們真的不能接受對銀行的定價實力。但這顯然是 2 的樣本。隨著船舶從 4Q 到 1Q 變得更加滿載，定價實際上加速了。所以也許可以談談我們應該如何將這些定價數字背景化。有沒有理由認為這些會在我們得到最後一個（稱為 30% 的入住率）時出現？還是有機會繼續加速？

We're certainly -- thanks for your question, first of all. We're certainly going to continue to work hard to make certain that prices hold and accelerate, and we'll have to see in the end we're managing yield. And so we want to optimize occupancy and price. Right now, there's lots of demand. We obviously will be ramping up our advertising and promotional efforts as time goes on. We have increased already, but it's still well below where we were in 2019. We've gotten smarter and more efficient in how we do that. And so we want to create more demand and keep it going. But as you've heard from what we reported so far, pricing is strong, and we've been able to maintain price. David, I don't know if you want to add any more color.

我們當然 - 首先感謝您的問題。我們當然會繼續努力確保價格保持穩定並加速上漲，我們最終必須看到我們正在管理收益率。因此，我們希望優化入住率和價格。現在，有很多需求。隨著時間的推移，我們顯然會加大廣告和促銷力度。我們已經有所增加，但仍遠低於 2019 年的水平。我們在這方面變得更聰明、更高效。所以我們想創造更多的需求並保持下去。但正如您從我們到目前為止的報導中所聽到的那樣，定價很強勁，而且我們能夠維持價格。大衛，我不知道你是否想添加更多顏色。

Yes. The only thing I wanted to add to what Arnold said is, James, you really need to think about it a little bit differently because you're sort of saying, well, when the last 30% comes in, it doesn't -- the last 30% isn't going to come in at the last second. Remember that for the last few quarters, the booking window has been much shorter. And so when we think about the future, we said we don't expect to get to historical occupancy levels until 2023. But we do expect to see an improving level of occupancy every quarter as we go forward.

是的。對於 Arnold 所說的，我唯一想補充的是，James，你真的需要稍微不同地考慮一下，因為你有點說，好吧，當最後 30% 出現時，它並沒有——最後 30% 不會在最後一秒出現。請記住，在過去幾個季度中，預訂窗口要短得多。因此，當我們考慮未來時，我們說我們預計要到 2023 年才能達到歷史入住率水平。但我們確實希望在未來每個季度都能看到入住率水平的提高。

And one of the reasons is because, for 2023, looking out today, we've got a much fuller booking curve. We'll manage pricing the way Arnold described along that booking curve, and we'll get to our historical occupancy levels. And we're being very careful in the short term where the booking curve is shorter to manage that appropriately. We're driving demand, as Arnold mentioned, with the advertising. Although advertising these days seems to be -- the mix of advertising has changed tremendously and will continue to evolve. So think of it in terms of booking curve. And with the longer booking curve towards next year, we can get to those occupancy levels because there's a lot of demand out there. People want to cruise. We have a great product. We're still a good value compared to land-based alternatives, although we're trying to make it a bit less of a value as we move forward and to raise price, as Arnold indicated.

原因之一是，從今天來看，到 2023 年，我們的預訂曲線會更加完整。我們將按照阿諾德描述的預訂曲線來管理定價，我們將達到歷史入住率水平。我們在短期內非常小心，因為預訂曲線較短，以適當地管理它。正如阿諾德所說，我們正在通過廣告推動需求。儘管現在的廣告似乎——廣告的組合已經發生了巨大的變化，並將繼續發展。所以從預訂曲線的角度來考慮它。隨著明年的預訂曲線變長，我們可以達到這些入住率，因為那裡有很多需求。人們想乘船遊覽。我們有很棒的產品。與基於陸地的替代品相比，我們仍然是一個很好的價值，儘管我們正試圖在我們前進和提高價格的過程中降低它的價值，正如阿諾德所指出的那樣。

That's really helpful. And then along those same lines, everybody wants to compare sort of your pricing strength to your competitors as we look versus 2019. Are there any sort of major differences you would call out that make those comparisons not really apples to apples? Obviously, you have, I guess, a, more of a global consumer base, right? And I don't know if there are any major differences between sort of the U.S. customers and sort of worldwide. And then the other piece is just maybe a bit more of a mass market customer. And so how do we think about the potential for growth out of those contingents?

這真的很有幫助。然後沿著同樣的思路，每個人都想將你的定價實力與你的競爭對手進行比較，就像我們看到的那樣與 2019 年相比。你會說有什麼重大差異使這些比較不是真正的蘋果對蘋果嗎？顯然，我猜你有更多的全球消費者基礎，對吧？而且我不知道美國客戶和全球客戶之間是否存在重大差異。然後另一部分可能只是更多的大眾市場客戶。那麼我們如何看待這些特遣隊的增長潛力？

First of all, your understandings are right. It is apples and oranges. There are a number of differences, not the least of which is we're on different fiscal quarters and so even the month by month. You have timing. Then you also, obviously, in addition to that, is cabin mix. It's itinerary mix, as you mentioned, composition of the European itineraries. And right now, you have big itinerary changes because a lot of our lucrative itineraries which would be similar for some of the others perhaps, too, but we may have more of it in terms of world cruises and more exotic cruises and so on and so forth.

首先，你的理解是對的。它是蘋果和橙子。存在許多差異，其中最重要的是我們處於不同的財政季度，甚至是逐月。你有時間。那麼，顯然，除此之外，您還需要機艙組合。正如您提到的，這是歐洲行程的行程組合。現在，你有很大的行程變化，因為我們的很多有利可圖的行程可能與其他一些行程相似，但我們可能有更多的世界遊輪和更多異國情調的遊輪等等向前。

But anyway, all those things are different. When we try our best to kind of normalize all that, which is extremely difficult to do, and try to match up month-by-month, when we've done that, we see that we're doing as well of, and in some cases, better than the others. In the recent times, one has done better on price. But at the same time, they've not done as well in occupancy. And so in the end, we don't see a big performance difference on that when we try to match up. But it is apples and oranges. David, I don't know if you want to add anything else.

但無論如何，所有這些都是不同的。當我們盡最大努力使所有這些都正常化時，這很難做到，並嘗試逐月匹配，當我們做到這一點時，我們會發現我們正在做同樣的事情，並且在在某些情況下，比其他情況更好。最近，有人在價格上做得更好。但與此同時，他們在入住率方面表現不佳。所以最後，當我們嘗試匹配時，我們看不到很大的性能差異。但它是蘋果和橘子。大衛，我不知道你是否還想補充什麼。

Let me add some clarity to that. So remember, one of our competitors had a lot less occupancy than us during their fourth quarter period, which probably leads to more balconies, cabins and at a higher price as part of the overall mix. And also some of our competitors, one of them was not carrying any kids because of the vaccine requirements, and kids are at a lower price. So as a result of that, too, that affects the overall position.

讓我澄清一下。所以請記住，我們的一個競爭對手在第四季度的入住率比我們低得多，這可能導致更多的陽台、小木屋和更高的價格作為整體組合的一部分。還有我們的一些競爭對手，由於疫苗要求，其中一個沒有帶任何孩子，而且孩子的價格更低。因此，這也影響了整體立場。

Arnold mentioned the itinerary differences. But what we did do is we lined up the months, October, November and December, and we can do that internally for ourselves compared to our competition. And so we try to also balance. Remember, occupancy, there's 2 sides to the equation. There's price and occupancy. And the best way to balance that out is to look at the gross revenue per ALBD as opposed to the gross revenue per PCD. Because I will tell you, if all I did was sell one penthouse suite on one ship and didn't sell anything else, my per PCD would be incredibly high. But when you balance it all out, the revenue per ALBD reduction because, of course, the occupancy was down in all 3 companies, we're the same, within 2 percentage points. So the reduction in revenue per ALBD was a 2 percentage point difference between all 3 companies. And so I think we are, as Arnold said, we're doing better than some. And we're well positioned and looking forward to, as I said, 2023 and providing 14 million memorable vacation experiences to people around the globe.

阿諾德提到了行程差異。但我們所做的是將 10 月、11 月和 12 月排成一行，與我們的競爭對手相比，我們可以在內部為自己做這件事。所以我們也嘗試平衡。記住，入住率，等式有兩個方面。有價格和入住率。平衡這一點的最佳方法是查看每個 ALBD 的總收入，而不是每個 PCD 的總收入。因為我會告訴你，如果我所做的只是賣掉一艘船上的一套頂層套房而不賣其他任何東西，我的每 PCD 會高得令人難以置信。但是當你平衡這一切時，每個 ALBD 減少的收入當然是因為所有 3 家公司的入住率都下降了，我們是一樣的，在 2 個百分點以內。因此，每 ALBD 的收入減少在所有 3 家公司之間相差 2 個百分點。所以我認為，正如阿諾德所說，我們比某些人做得更好。正如我所說，我們已經做好準備，期待 2023 年為全球人們提供 1400 萬次難忘的假期體驗。

And we'll proceed to our next question on the line from the line of Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

我們將從 Infinity Research 的 Assia Georgieva 線上繼續我們的下一個問題。

It's mind-boggling how many refinancings you guys did. So David, a question to you. How should we model interest expense going forward? I think you probably have hit the lowest-lying fruit at this point. Do you expect that there could be further significant savings on interest expense into the back half of the year and possibly 2023?

你們做了多少再融資，真是令人難以置信。大衛，有一個問題要問你。我們應該如何模擬未來的利息支出？我認為此時您可能已經觸及了最低點。您是否預計今年下半年甚至 2023 年的利息支出可能會進一步大幅節省？

Yes. So in terms of interest expense, we did give a forecast in the business update, which was $1.5 billion, and it was the same interest expense forecast we gave back in December. So that is our forecast for the full year 2022. We do have the opportunity, as I mentioned before, to refinance the 2L notes at some point in the future. And we'll carefully look at that opportunity, and that might provide some interest savings over time.

是的。因此，在利息支出方面，我們確實在業務更新中給出了 15 億美元的預測，這與我們在 12 月份給出的利息支出預測相同。這就是我們對 2022 年全年的預測。正如我之前提到的，我們確實有機會在未來某個時候為 2L 票據再融資。我們會仔細研究這個機會，隨著時間的推移，這可能會節省一些利息。

But on the flip side, we're all watching the fed, and there is the possibility for rates to move up. So at this point, it is a little premature to forecast 2023. If you know exactly what the fed is going to do and all, let me know, but it is difficult. But it's going to be in that neighborhood, plus or minus, as you think it through in 2023.

但另一方面，我們都在關注美聯儲，利率有可能上調。所以在這一點上，預測 2023 年還為時過早。如果你確切知道美聯儲將要做什麼，請告訴我，但這很難。但正如您在 2023 年所想的那樣，它會在那個街區，正負。

The fed hasn't called me today, so I don't know what the latest thinking is. Can I ask a couple of -- one question, revenue and itinerary related. It's great news that Australia is opening up. And obviously, that will be more helpful during the winter season 2022, 2023. Given that Spirit will be permanently based in the U.S., are you thinking of adding another Carnival ship so that you have a little bit more scale as opposed to just one ship? And do you think that China is an opportunity that might come online within the current fiscal year?

美聯儲今天沒有給我打電話，所以我不知道最新的想法是什麼。我可以問幾個問題——一個問題，與收入和行程有關。澳大利亞正在開放，這是個好消息。顯然，這在 2022 年和 2023 年的冬季會更有幫助。鑑於 Spirit 將永久駐紮在美國，您是否正在考慮增加另一艘嘉年華船，這樣您的規模會更大一些，而不是只有一艘船？您認為中國是本財年可能出現的機會嗎？

Well, first of all, we're delighted to see that the Australian government is not extending the ban on cruises beyond the April 17 date. And we've already announced, as you are aware, P&O Australia is going to start selling late May in Australia. And so we're happy to be bringing joyful cruise vacations to Australians again and giving people who want to cruise in Australia an opportunity to do so. So we're excited about that.

好吧，首先，我們很高興看到澳大利亞政府沒有將郵輪禁令延長至 4 月 17 日之後。正如您所知，我們已經宣布，P&O Australia 將於 5 月下旬在澳大利亞開始銷售。因此，我們很高興再次為澳大利亞人帶來歡樂的郵輪假期，並為想要在澳大利亞郵輪旅行的人們提供這樣做的機會。所以我們對此感到興奮。

China, we'll have to see how things pan out there. Right now, it's still not practical. And as we've always said with China, when we're able to do it profitably, we'll do it. And when we can't, we won't. And so we continue to work with the authorities there and other places that are still not yet quite open to eventually get it open for cruise in a way that makes sense for everyone. So that's that.

中國，我們必須看看那裡的情況如何。現在，它仍然不實用。正如我們一直對中國說的那樣，當我們能夠盈利時，我們就會去做。當我們不能時，我們不會。因此，我們繼續與那里和其他尚未完全開放的地方的當局合作，最終以對每個人都有意義的方式開放遊輪。就是這樣。

The fed hasn't called me today either, by the way. But I would say, overall, things are really looking good. I mean, we're -- 75% of the ships are now sailing. Whether we'll put another ship into Australia for the Carnival brand, that's a decision to be made over time. But almost certainly, given the demand in Australia historically for the various brands, it would not be illogical to think at some point, once things are up and going again, Carnival would have an even greater presence. So but at this point, we don't have any specific plans. Right now, we'll see how things pan out.

順便說一句，美聯儲今天也沒有給我打電話。但我會說，總的來說，事情看起來真的很好。我的意思是，我們 - 75% 的船隻現在正在航行。我們是否會為嘉年華品牌派另一艘船進入澳大利亞，這是一個需要時間做出的決定。但幾乎可以肯定的是，考慮到澳大利亞歷史上對各種品牌的需求，在某個時候思考並不是不合邏輯的，一旦事情重新開始，嘉年華將會有更大的影響力。所以但在這一點上，我們沒有任何具體計劃。現在，我們將看看結果如何。

The only thing I just wanted to remind everybody is that remember, Carnival Cruise Lines moved out 6 ships so -- during the pause in guest cruise operations. And so as a result of that, as Arnold said, we'll relook at it. But everything needs to be reexamined to make sure we optimize the cash flow and profitability of Carnival Cruise Lines.

我只想提醒大家的唯一一件事是，請記住，嘉年華郵輪公司在賓客郵輪運營暫停期間搬出了 6 艘船。因此，正如阿諾德所說，我們將重新審視它。但一切都需要重新審視，以確保我們優化嘉年華郵輪公司的現金流和盈利能力。

And by the way...

順便說一下...

So we have some time before their season, right? So there's still a few months to go?

所以我們在他們的賽季之前還有一些時間，對吧？所以還有幾個月的時間？

Yes. And Carnival is doing so well. I mean, it's led the way period in terms of occupancy, has been strong yields. We've had unbelievable bookings the past few weeks, wave-level bookings in the Carnival brand in the last few weeks here and is super positive for the brand and a good, hopefully, leading indicator for the overall industry.

是的。嘉年華做得很好。我的意思是，它在入住率方面處於領先地位，收益率一直很高。過去幾週我們的預訂量令人難以置信，過去幾周嘉年華品牌的預訂量達到了驚人的水平，這對該品牌來說是非常積極的，並且有望成為整個行業的領先指標。

It does seem that wave season is being extended, and I imagine it's not just the pause or the slowdown because of Omicron but also because people have been cooped up for 2 years and might be taking a little bit longer to make those decisions given uncertainty, COVID or geopolitical. So hopefully, we'll continue to see a great booking volume stream over the next weeks.

波浪季節似乎確實在延長，我想這不僅僅是因為 Omicron 導致的暫停或放緩，還因為人們已經被困了 2 年，並且在不確定的情況下可能需要更長的時間來做出這些決定， COVID 或地緣政治。因此，希望在接下來的幾週內，我們將繼續看到大量的預訂量。

Absolutely. Yes, there's no question, consumer confidence, uncertainty driven by all the various dynamics, COVID, the invasion in Ukraine and all that. But clearly, there's momentum.

絕對地。是的，毫無疑問，消費者信心、各種動態驅動的不確定性、COVID、入侵烏克蘭等等。但很明顯，有動力。

And we'll go to our next question on the line from the line of Stuart Gordon with Berenberg.

我們將從 Stuart Gordon 和 Berenberg 的線上開始我們的下一個問題。

Yes. Just a couple of points I'd be interested. The first one is on the dry-dock days. Could you just give some color on sort of the number of days that you're expecting in the first half of '22 versus '19, perhaps also a full year if you have it? And then how that should shape up for '23. I'm assuming you're putting through a lot of dry-dock days that will therefore not be required next year.

是的。只有幾點我會感興趣。第一個是在幹船塢的日子裡。你能不能給出一些顏色來說明你在 22 年上半年和 19 年上半年的預期天數，如果有的話，也許還有一整年？然後應該如何塑造'23。我假設您要度過很多幹船塢日，因此明年就不需要了。

And just the second is on the Omicron impact. What was the damaged occupancy from cancellations due to Omicron, if you could give us some flavor on that?

第二個是對 Omicron 的影響。如果您能給我們介紹一下，由於 Omicron 而導致的取消造成的入住率受損是多少？

Yes. I'll take the second part and let David tell you about the dry-dock days. In terms of Omicron, as we said in the opening comments, it clearly had an effect on consumer confidence, and it caused disruption. People either were testing positive, so they couldn't cruise or they weren't able to get timely tests. And then there was just the overall guest impact on society and uncertainty and uneasiness that Omicron created. It's tough to quantify it and isolate it to say this was all Omicron, and this was something else. But the bottom line is it had an impact. It had an impact on wave and which is why we feel -- partly why we feel now we have an extended wave season and are seeing that rebound now. But we did get through it. We got through it and just as we got through Delta. And now, there's lots of momentum and things are clearly pointed in the right direction.

是的。我會講第二部分，讓大衛告訴你幹船塢的日子。就 Omicron 而言，正如我們在開場評論中所說，它顯然對消費者信心產生了影響，並造成了混亂。人們要么測試呈陽性，因此他們無法巡航，要么無法及時進行測試。然後就是客人對社會的總體影響以及 Omicron 造成的不確定性和不安。很難對其進行量化和隔離，很難說這都是 Omicron，而這是另外一回事。但最重要的是它產生了影響。它對波浪產生了影響，這就是我們感覺的原因——部分原因是我們現在有一個延長的波浪季節並且現在正在看到反彈。但我們確實挺過去了。我們挺過來了，就像我們挺過了達美航空一樣。而現在，勢頭強勁，事情顯然指向了正確的方向。

So go ahead, David, on the dry-dock days.

所以，大衛，在幹船塢的日子裡繼續吧。

Yes. So the dry-dock days, in the first quarter, we have 273 days versus 141 in 2019. In the second quarter, there's 399 days versus 184 days in 2019. For the full year, this year, right now, the plan is 802 dry-dock days. We have some additional dry docks in the fourth quarter. I only have at the moment the first half of 2023. By the way, most -- many of the dry docks are usually either the first half or the fourth quarter. But the first half is down to, in '23, 272 days. There'll probably be some more in the fourth quarter, but you can see the number of dry-dock days will be significantly less. 802 is an unusually large number. I don't think we've ever exceeded. I think something in the range of 550 was probably the largest number we ever had.

是的。所以第一季度的干船塢天數是 273 天，而 2019 年是 141 天。第二季度是 399 天，而 2019 年是 184 天。全年，今年，現在，計劃是 802幹船塢的日子。我們在第四季度有一些額外的干船塢。我目前只有 2023 年上半年。順便說一句，大多數 - 許多幹船塢通常是上半年或第四季度。但是上半場已經減少到 23 年的 272 天。第四季度可能會有更多，但你可以看到干船塢天數會明顯減少。 802 是一個異常大的數字。我認為我們從未超過。我認為 550 左右的數量可能是我們曾經擁有的最大數量。

But as I mentioned in my notes, we're bringing back the ships. We're optimizing it. The ships are not in service, and we want to make sure the ships look great when the guests get back onboard. And of course, we are cleaning the hull. Because I will tell you, you get those hulls clean, and it is incredibly much more efficient from a fuel perspective. So we are optimizing the situation.

但正如我在筆記中提到的，我們正在帶回船隻。我們正在優化它。這些船隻不在服役，我們希望確保客人返回船上時船隻看起來很棒。當然，我們正在清潔船體。因為我會告訴你，你把那些船體弄乾淨了，從燃料的角度來看，它的效率要高得多。所以我們正在優化情況。

I don't have the full year 2019 at my fingertips. I do apologize, but perhaps Beth can get back to you on that one.

我手邊沒有 2019 年全年。我很抱歉，但也許 Beth 可以在那個問題上回复你。

No, that was very helpful. Could I just circle back to the first question? I mean, would it be fair to say that if we were to see another variant, each iteration of the variant, Delta to Omicron, you're, a, recovering faster; but b, also seeing less of an impact because I think human nature is we're getting more used to it? Would that be a fair observation at least?

不，那很有幫助。我可以回到第一個問題嗎？我的意思是，公平地說，如果我們要看到另一個變體，變體的每次迭代，從 Delta 到 Omicron，你，a，恢復得更快；但是 b，也看到了較小的影響，因為我認為人性是我們越來越習慣了？這至少是一個公平的觀察嗎？

I think we'll have to see what happens with the variants. But clearly, society is better prepared. There's better understanding of transmission, of epidemiology, of everything. More people are vaccinated. That's the biggie, of course. And people -- and fewer and fewer people are getting really sick from, whether it's Omicron or the B variant of Omicron or whatever. And so the focus is shifting more to where it should be, which is hospitalizations, or worse -- long-term effects are worse. And as long as I think society doesn't see a huge ramp-up in that from some variants, then you're absolutely right. People are learning how to live with it and live with it safely and comfortably.

我認為我們必須看看這些變體會發生什麼。但顯然，社會已經做好了更充分的準備。人們對傳播、流行病學和一切都有更好的了解。更多人接種疫苗。那當然是大人物。還有人——越來越少的人真的生病了，無論是 Omicron 還是 Omicron 的 B 變體或其他什麼。因此，重點更多地轉移到它應該在的地方，即住院治療，或者更糟——長期影響更糟。只要我認為社會沒有看到某些變體在這方面的巨大增長，那麼你就絕對正確。人們正在學習如何與之共處，安全舒適地生活。

And of course, our protocols have been -- have served us very well. On the ships, we are far better than the equivalent incidents on land, partly because of the testing, the vaccinations, all the other protocols we have in place. And so we're amongst the safest forms of socialization there is, and we've learned a lot about how to manage. And so through Delta, through Omicron, through all those, we have had much lower incidents than what you would find on land and have gotten pretty adept at serving the best interest of public health and dealing with it.

當然，我們的規程已經——為我們提供了很好的服務。在船上，我們比陸地上的同等事件要好得多，部分原因是測試、疫苗接種以及我們制定的所有其他協議。因此，我們屬於最安全的社交形式之一，並且我們已經學到了很多關於如何管理的知識。因此，通過 Delta，通過 Omicron，通過所有這些，我們發生的事件比你在陸地上發現的要少得多，並且非常善於為公共衛生的最大利益服務並處理它。

But overall, society is getting used to it. And as long as hospitalizations don't ramp up or worse, then you would think the trend you're seeing today would continue.

但總的來說，社會正在習慣它。只要住院人數不增加或更糟，您就會認為今天看到的趨勢會持續下去。

And remember, with tests much more available, that will be very helpful as well. Because in the first quarter, that was a big issue for us, on the testing availability.

請記住，有了更多可用的測試，這也會非常有幫助。因為在第一季度，這對我們來說是一個關於測試可用性的大問題。

So we'll proceed with our final question from the line from Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

因此，我們將繼續處理 Fred Wightman 與 Wolfe Research 的最後一個問題。

I was hoping you could give a little bit more detail on the sailings where you are seeing occupancy over 100%. It sounds like that might be mostly concentrated in the Carnival brand, but are those largely South Florida departures? Are you seeing pretty broad-based strength in terms of where those are located or home porting? Anything else to add would be great.

我希望你能提供更多關於你看到入住率超過 100% 的航行的細節。聽起來這可能主要集中在嘉年華品牌，但這些主要是南佛羅里達州的出發點嗎？在這些位置或家庭移植方面，您是否看到了相當廣泛的優勢？任何其他添加都會很棒。

Definitely more North American oriented, not only the Carnival brand. I think the better characterization would be kind of traditional itineraries that people have been used to. And so in a number of cases, of course, we've had alter itineraries because destinations weren't available or they had protocols, et cetera, that made it difficult to take guests there and what have you.

絕對更面向北美，而不僅僅是嘉年華品牌。我認為更好的表徵是人們已經習慣的那種傳統行程。因此，在許多情況下，當然，我們已經改變了行程，因為目的地不可用或者他們有協議等等，這使得很難將客人帶到那里以及你有什麼。

But overall, I think the most important aspect of that is you're talking a lot of sailings at 100%, which is showing that things are definitely coming back and that we have the ability to sell at 100% with protocols and still serve -- still in the best interest of public health with really good outcomes from a health and safety standpoint. So that's how I would characterize it. There's still a lot of destinations elsewhere that have restrictions. There's additional protocols, the regulatory of 9 brands all over the world. There's all kinds of regulations and protocols, not just in home markets, but in destination markets that we have to deal with. And all of that creates challenge. But it's becoming less. And we are moving towards full occupancies over time and having all of the ship sail.

但總的來說，我認為最重要的方面是你在談論很多 100% 的航次，這表明事情肯定會回來，我們有能力按照協議以 100% 的價格出售並且仍然服務 - - 從健康和安全的角度來看，這仍然符合公眾健康的最大利益，並取得了非常好的結果。這就是我描述它的方式。其他地方仍有很多目的地有限制。還有附加協議，全球 9 個品牌的監管。有各種各樣的法規和協議，不僅在國內市場，而且在我們必須處理的目的地市場。所有這些都帶來了挑戰。但是越來越少了。隨著時間的推移，我們正朝著滿員的方向發展，並讓所有的船都航行。

Makes sense. And a housekeeping question. When you guys were making comments about forward earnings commentary for the back half of this year and then into '23, are you just assuming the current spot fuel price? Or are you looking at the forward curve there? I'm assuming that, that...

說得通。還有一個家政問題。當你們對今年下半年和 23 年的遠期收益評論發表評論時，你們是否只是假設當前的現貨燃油價格？或者你在看那裡的遠期曲線？我假設，那...

Yes. So our commentary was very broad. I do assume that fuel will be better than the current spot price, but the commentary is pretty broad. And we're not giving specific guidance. So while fuel price matters to the bottom line, it's still -- depending on the price, it's -- there's a wide range where we're still within the guidance we gave of a profit and loss.

是的。所以我們的評論非常廣泛。我確實認為燃料價格會好於當前的現貨價格，但評論範圍很廣。我們沒有給出具體的指導。因此，儘管燃油價格對底線很重要，但它仍然——取決於價格——我們仍然在我們給出的損益指導範圍內。

Thank you all. Operator, thank you very much. But everyone, thank you. We appreciate your interest in us. We're very excited about welcoming people back onboard. Again, our heart goes out to all of those impacted by the Ukraine invasion, and -- but we're looking forward to peace there and brighter days ahead. Thank you.

謝謝你們。接線員，非常感謝。但是大家，謝謝。感謝您對我們的關注。我們很高興歡迎人們回到船上。再一次，我們向所有受烏克蘭入侵影響的人表示慰問，而且——但我們期待那裡的和平和未來更美好的日子。謝謝你。

Thank you very much. That does conclude the call for today. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines. Have a good day, everyone.

非常感謝。這確實結束了今天的呼籲。我們感謝您的參與。您可以斷開線路。祝大家有美好的一天。