Carnival PLC (CUK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation & plc's conference call.

您好，歡迎參加嘉年華郵輪公司電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係高級副總裁貝絲·羅伯茨 (Beth Roberts)。

Thank you, Beth.

謝謝你，貝絲。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, and welcome to our first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。

I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison.

今天和我一起參加的是我們的執行長 Josh Weinstein；我們的財務長 David Bernstein；以及我們的董事長 Micky Arison。

Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們在本次電話會議上的一些評論將是前瞻性的。

Therefore, I will refer you to the forward-looking statement in today's press release.

因此，我將請您參閱今天新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明。

All references to ticket prices, yields, and cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，所有提及的票價、收益和不含燃料的遊輪費用均以固定貨幣計算。

References to yields will be on a net basis.

收益率以淨額為基礎。

References to cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, and ROIC will be on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，不含燃料的郵輪成本、EBITDA、淨收入和 ROIC 均以調整後基礎計算。

All of these references are non-GAAP financial measures defined in our earnings press release.

所有這些參考都是我們收益新聞稿中定義的非 GAAP 財務指標。

A reconciliation to the most directly comparable US GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are also contained in our earnings press release and in our investor presentation.

我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹中還包含與最直接可比較的美國 GAAP 財務指標的對帳以及其他相關揭露。

Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.

請造訪我們的公司網站，您可以在那裡找到我們的收益新聞稿和投資者介紹。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給喬希 (Josh)。

Thanks, Beth.

謝謝，貝絲。

Once again, we delivered a fantastic quarter, this time, hitting first-quarter high-water marks for revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA per ALBD, operating income, and customer deposits.

我們再次創造了一個輝煌的季度業績，營收、EBITDA、每 ALBD EBITDA、營業收入和客戶存款均創下第一季新高。

Net income came in more than $170 million better than guidance as we outperformed across the board, led by incredibly strong demand throughout our portfolio.

由於我們整個投資組合的需求異常強勁，我們的整體表現優於預期，淨收入比預期高出 1.7 億美元。

We achieved a robust 7.3% yield increase, smashing our yield guidance on top of last year's 17% yield improvement.

我們的殖利率強勁成長 7.3%，在去年 17% 的殖利率改善基礎上，超越了我們的殖利率預期。

Both ticket and onboard equally outperformed on very strong close-in demand, which speaks to the strength of our consumer.

由於近距離需求非常強勁，票務和機上服務都表現出色，證明了我們消費者的實力。

Unit costs also came in better than expected, mainly due to timing between the quarters.

單位成本也優於預期，主要由於季度之間的時間安排。

This resulted in a near doubling of operating income for the quarter and EBITDA that reached $1.2 billion, approaching a 40% year-over-year increase.

這使得本季的營業收入幾乎翻了一番，EBITDA 達到 12 億美元，比去年同期成長近 40%。

Operating margins and EBITDA margins each improved over 400 basis points year over year, with both of these now surpassing 2019 levels.

營業利潤率和 EBITDA 利潤率分別年增 400 個基點以上，目前均超過了 2019 年的水準。

For the full year, and despite heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility since providing our December guidance, we are taking up yields by 0.5 point to 4.7% based on our strong first-quarter results, while affirming yield expectations for the remainder of the year.

就全年而言，儘管自 12 月發布指引以來宏觀經濟和地緣政治波動加劇，但基於強勁的第一季業績，我們將收益率上調 0.5 個百分點至 4.7%，同時確認今年剩餘時間的收益率預期。

In addition, David and our finance team stepped up our refinancing efforts which will bring another approximately $100 million to the bottom line this year alone.

此外，David 和我們的財務團隊加大了再融資力度，光是今年就將帶來約 1 億美元的利潤。

Combined, this successful execution has enabled us to take up our earnings guidance for the year by $185 million. 2025 remains on track to be another very strong year for our brands, with yield growth far outpacing historical growth rates and nicely exceeding unit cost growth, delivering approximately $600 million incrementally to the bottom line, more than a 30% improvement from 2024.

總的來說，這項成功執行讓我們的年度獲利預期提高了 1.85 億美元。 2025 年仍將是我們的品牌表現非常強勁的一年，收益成長將遠遠超過歷史成長率，並大大超過單位成本成長，為利潤帶來約 6 億美元的增量，比 2024 年成長 30% 以上。

And that is essentially on flat capacity growth.

這基本上與產能成長持平有關。

Achieving our March guidance will also result in reaching both of our 2026 sea change financial targets one year early, with ROIC hitting 12% and EBITDA per ALBD more than 50% higher than just two years ago, taking each of these two metrics to levels not seen in the better part of 20 years.

如果能實現 3 月的預期，我們將提前一年實現 2026 年的兩個重大財務目標，其中，ROIC 將達到 12%，EBITDA 將比兩年前高出 50% 以上，使這兩個指標達到近 20 年來的最高水準。

At the same time, we're also closing in on our 2026 greenhouse gas target, with an over 19% reduction in carbon intensity compared to 2019.

同時，我們也正接近 2026 年溫室氣體目標，碳強度與 2019 年相比降低 19% 以上。

We're generating demand well in excess of our very limited inventory remaining, which has been driving strong pricing for the remainder of the year while also building demand for future years.

我們產生的需求遠遠超過了我們剩餘的非常有限的庫存，這推動了今年剩餘時間的強勁定價，同時也為未來幾年的需求創造了條件。

In fact, we're at historical high prices across all core programs for 2025 and all quarters of the year, while booking volumes for 2026 sailings and beyond taken during the first quarter also reached an all-time high.

事實上，2025 年及全年所有季度的所有核心計劃的價格都達到了歷史最高水平，而第一季 2026 年及以後航行的預訂量也達到了歷史最高水平。

We were very well positioned going into wave this year, and we exited with over 80% of the year on the books at higher prices and with a booking curve that is still the furthest out on record.

我們在今年的浪潮中佔據了非常有利的位置，並且我們以更高的價格完成了全年 80% 以上的預訂，並且預訂曲線仍然是有史以來最高的。

We have no plans to let up anytime soon.

我們近期沒有放鬆的計劃。

As we foreshadowed on the last call, we kicked off new marketing campaigns across all major brands during wave season to fuel more broad-based consideration for cruise travel and keep the strong momentum going.

正如我們在上次電話會議上預示的那樣，我們在旺季期間在所有主要品牌啟動了新的行銷活動，以激發人們對郵輪旅行的更廣泛考慮，並保持強勁勢頭。

Costa ticked up the volume at the Sanremo Music Festival, among Italy's most renowned music events, which was watched by over two-thirds of Italy's television audience, featuring a live performance onboard Costa Toscana.

科斯塔郵輪 (Costa) 在義大利最著名的音樂盛會之一聖雷莫音樂節上大放異彩，超過三分之二的義大利電視觀眾觀賞了音樂節，並在科斯塔托斯卡納號 (Costa Toscana) 上進行了現場表演。

Carnival Cruise Line was also a standout at the Oscars, selected along with a few other household names for a themed promo honoring stunt performers and featuring a daring skydive into a pool onboard Carnival Celebration.

嘉年華郵輪公司也是奧斯卡頒獎典禮上的一大亮點，該公司與其他幾家家喻戶曉的郵輪公司一起被選中製作主題宣傳片，向特技演員致敬，並在嘉年華慶典郵輪上拍攝了大膽的跳傘場景。

Of course, Carnival Cruise Line has clearly amped up the volume around Celebration Key, which was showcased while lighting the iconic New Year's Eve ball drop in Times Square, and continued through the Super Bowl in New Orleans, featuring our celebrity chef partners Emeril Lagasse and Guy Fieri, as well as brand ambassador, Shaquille O'Neal.

當然，嘉年華郵輪顯然加大了「慶典之鑰」的宣傳力度，它在時代廣場跨年夜標誌性的降球儀式上亮相，並一直持續到新奧爾良的超級碗比賽，我們的名廚搭檔埃默里爾·拉加斯 (Emeril Lagasse) 和蓋伊·費裡 (Guy FieriNeal)，以及品牌大使沙奎爾·奧尼爾 (Shaquille) 也出席了品牌大使沙奎爾·奧尼爾 (Shaquille) 品牌大使沙奎爾·奧尼爾 (Shaquille) 。

These two events alone captured over 5 billion impressions across paid, earned, and owned media.

光是這兩場活動就在付費媒體、賺取的媒體和自有媒體上獲得了超過 50 億次的曝光。

And Carnival's adorable wave campaign, Flip, Lost in Paradise, was a hit, getting huge cut through with marketing KPIs up across the board.

嘉年華的迷人波浪活動「翻轉，迷失天堂」大獲成功，取得了巨大的成功，行銷 KPI 全面提升。

If our marketing team managed to get that kind of traction around what is still computer-generated animation, I look forward to four months from now when all five portals built for fun at Celebration Key are open for our guests and can be showcased.

如果我們的行銷團隊能夠在仍然是電腦生成的動畫的領域中獲得這樣的關注，我期待四個月後，Celebration Key 上為樂趣而建造的所有五個門戶都將向我們的客人開放並進行展示。

We're on track for our July opening and executing our ramp-up plan into the fourth quarter, as our team settles into these new operations and focuses on delivering the kind of phenomenal experience our guests have come to expect from our exclusive destinations.

我們計劃於 7 月開業，並執行第四季度的擴張計劃，我們的團隊將適應這些新的運營，並專注於為客人提供他們所期望從我們的獨特目的地獲得的非凡體驗。

RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay is also on schedule for the second half of 2026.

RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay 也計劃於 2026 年下半年投入使用。

We've already begun to increase our marketing around this enhanced and rebranded jewel in the Caribbean.

我們已經開始加大對這顆加勒比海明珠的行銷力道。

And we'll have more to come on our plans to increase awareness and consideration for our brand as we leverage our underexposed portfolio of Caribbean destinations.

而且，我們將利用加勒比地區目的地的低曝光度組合，制定更多的計劃來提高我們品牌的知名度和關注度。

Turning to Alaska, we just announced an expansion and renovation project to Denali Lodge, one of our nine owned and operated hotel properties, building on this unmatched strategic advantage for Holland America and Princess Cruises.

談到阿拉斯加，我們剛剛宣布了對我們擁有和經營的九家酒店之一德納裡旅館的擴建和翻新項目，這將為荷美郵輪和公主郵輪鞏固這一無與倫比的戰略優勢。

Enhancements will include the addition of 120 new guestrooms and suites, room remodelings, additional food and beverage venues, and improvements to public spaces and nature trails.

改進內容包括新增 120 間新客房和套房、客房改造、增加餐飲場所以及改善公共空間和自然小徑。

Our brand's land-sea packages are a huge draw for new cruise guests and truly the best way to experience the greatness of Alaska.

我們品牌的海陸套裝對新遊輪客人有著巨大的吸引力，也是體驗阿拉斯加美景的最佳方式。

We also just completed the first of seven AIDA ships to undergo our AIDA Evolution program.

我們也剛完成了七艘 AIDA 船舶中的第一艘，這些船舶將接受我們的 AIDA Evolution 計畫。

AIDAdiva is now sailing from Rome, having just returned from a seven-week dry dock with many added features that our German guests have come to love on AIDA's newer vessels.

AIDAdiva 號現在從羅馬起航，剛從為期七週的乾船塢返回，配備了 AIDA 號新船的許多新增功能，我們的德國客人已經愛上了這些功能。

This includes over half a dozen new bar and dining venues, new suites, and equipment upgrades to enhance fuel efficiency.

其中包括六個新的酒吧和餐飲場所、新套房以及旨在提高燃油效率的設備升級。

AIDAluna will start her evolution later this year, followed by AIDAbella and AIDAmar in 2026.

AIDAluna 將於今年稍後開始進化，AIDAbella 和 AIDAmar 將於 2026 年開始進化。

We also further progressed on optimizing our portfolio.

我們在優化投資組合方面也取得了進一步的進展。

Just this month, we completed the sunsetting of our P&O Cruises Australia brand by folding its two remaining ships into Carnival Cruise Line.

就在本月，我們完成了 P&O Cruises Australia 品牌的淘汰，將旗下剩下的兩艘郵輪併入嘉年華郵輪公司。

We also consolidated our Seabourn fleet with the sale of Seabourn Sojourn.

我們也透過出售 Seabourn Sojourn 整合了我們的 Seabourn 船隊。

While we were not actively looking to sell the ship, the offer was in the best interest of our shareholders.

雖然我們並未積極尋求出售這艘船，但該報價符合我們股東的最佳利益。

The sale leaves Seabourn well positioned with a phenomenal fleet of three ultra-luxury ocean vessels and two recently launched ultra-luxury expedition ships, which comprises one of the most modern fleets in the industry at an average age of just over seven years.

此次出售使 Seabourn 擁有了有利的條件，該公司擁有一支由三艘超豪華遠洋船和兩艘新近下水的超豪華探險船組成的強大艦隊，是業內最現代化的艦隊之一，平均船齡略超過七年。

Now turning back to the business, and as you can see from our first-quarter outperformance, onboard spending, and booking levels, we have proven to be incredibly resilient to the volatility around the globe.

現在回顧業務，從我們第一季的優異表現、機上支出和預訂水平可以看出，我們已證明自己具有極強的抵禦全球波動的能力。

Having said that, even with our resilience and strong visibility given that so much of 2025 is already on the books, we aren't taking the current backdrop lightly.

話雖如此，即使我們擁有強大的韌性和可見性，因為 2025 年的大部分時間已經確定，我們也不會輕視當前的背景。

We will be working hard to achieve these results.

我們將努力實現這些成果。

Thankfully, our team is nimble and agile, characteristics, as you know, we honed so well over the first half of this decade, leaving us better positioned to manage through whatever comes our way.

值得慶幸的是，我們的團隊靈活而敏捷，正如你們所知，我們在過去五年中很好地磨練了這些特點，這使我們能夠更好地應對遇到的任何問題。

We have strong well-recognized brands that are number one or two in every major market for cruise often tailored specifically to phenomenal national markets such as the US, Germany, and the UK, markets that are deep and underpenetrated.

我們擁有強大且知名的品牌，這些品牌在每個主要郵輪市場中都位居第一或第二，這些品牌通常專門針對美國、德國和英國等深度且滲透不足的市場而量身定制。

We are delivering amazing vacation experiences every day in a time when people all over the world are placing increasing importance on experiences, particularly those spent with friends and family.

如今，世界各地的人們越來越重視體驗，特別是與朋友和家人一起度過的體驗，我們每天都在為人們提供令人驚嘆的度假體驗。

And on top of that, we are still a ridiculously amazing value compared to land-based alternatives.

最重要的是，與陸基替代品相比，我們的價值仍然令人驚訝。

While we have been chipping away at the price gap to land-based alternatives, the price to experience ratio of cruising versus those other options remains massively disproportionate.

雖然我們一直在縮小與陸上替代方案的價格差距，但巡航與其他選擇相比，其價格與體驗比率仍然嚴重不成比例。

While somewhat frustrating and while still a big opportunity over the coming years, this huge value for money is also truly a strength when people are looking to make their vacation dollars go even further.

雖然有些令人沮喪，並且在未來幾年仍然是一個巨大的機遇，但當人們希望讓他們的度假費用發揮更大的作用時，這種巨大的性價比也確實是一種優勢。

And it's about to get even better with the opening of Celebration Key, our marquee port in the Caribbean, which will give our guests yet another reason to come cruise with us.

隨著我們在加勒比地區的主要港口慶典礁島 (Celebration Key) 的啟用，情況將變得更好，這將為我們的客人提供另一個與我們一起乘船遊覽的理由。

We have been making huge strides on rebuilding our financial fortress as we close in on investment-grade leverage metrics.

隨著我們接近投資等級槓桿指標，我們在重建金融堡壘方面取得了巨大進展。

We have well-managed near-term maturity towers and no new ships for delivery in 2026, which gives us a good amount of headroom to continue paying down debt.

我們管理良好的近期到期債務塔，並且 2026 年沒有新船交付，這為我們繼續償還債務提供了充足的空間。

In fact, we have just three ships on order over the next four years, further supporting our ability to reach investment-grade leverage metrics within 2026.

事實上，未來四年我們只訂購了三艘船，這進一步支持了我們在 2026 年之前達到投資等級槓桿指標的能力。

Simply put, we are well positioned for the future and are pushing forward with intention.

簡而言之，我們已經為未來做好了準備，並正有目的地向前邁進。

I'll end by saying thanks to our travel agent partners, loyal guests, investors, destination partners, and other stakeholders who have contributed greatly to our results.

最後，我要感謝我們的旅行社合作夥伴、忠實的客人、投資者、目的地合作夥伴以及其他為我們的業績做出巨大貢獻的利害關係人。

And of course, a special thank you to each of our team members for driving outperformance once again.

當然，我們也要特別感謝我們團隊的每一位成員，再次推動我們取得優異的表現。

But most important for our long-term success, thank you to each and every team member for delivering unforgettable happiness to our guests by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sail, place we visit, and life we touch.

但對於我們的長期成功而言，最重要的是，感謝每一位團隊成員，為我們的客人提供非凡的郵輪假期，為他們帶來難忘的快樂，同時尊重我們航行的每一片海洋、訪問的每一處地方和接觸到的每一條生命的完整性。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Josh.

謝謝你，喬希。

I'll start today with a summary of our 2025 first-quarter results.

今天，我將首先總結我們的 2025 年第一季業績。

Next, I will provide some color on our improved full-year March guidance.

接下來，我將對我們改進的三月全年預期提供一些說明。

Then I'll finish up with an update of our refinancing and deleveraging efforts.

然後我將介紹我們再融資和去槓桿工作的最新進展。

Turning to the summary of our first-quarter results, net income exceeded December guidance by more than $170 million as we outperformed once again.

回顧我們第一季的業績總結，我們的淨收入超過 12 月的預期 1.7 億美元，再次表現出色。

The outperformance was essentially driven by three things; first, favorability in revenue worth $98 million as yields came in up over 7% compared to the prior year.

這種優異表現主要由三件事推動：首先，收入有利，價值 9800 萬美元，因為收益率與上年相比增長了 7% 以上。

This was 2.7 points better than December guidance driven by both close-in strength in ticket prices and strong onboard spending.

這比 12 月的預期高出 2.7 個百分點，這得益於機票價格的強勁上漲和機上消費的強勁增長。

Second, cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day or ALBD were only up 1% compared to the prior year.

其次，不含燃料的每可用下舖天數或 ALBD 的遊輪成本與前一年相比僅上漲了 1%。

This was 2.4 points better than December guidance and was worth $65 million.

這比 12 月的預期高出 2.4 個百分點，價值 6,500 萬美元。

The favorability in cost was mainly due to the timing of expenses between the quarters.

成本方面的有利因素主要歸因於各季度之間費用發生的時間。

We did find some permanent savings, which flowed through to the full year, which I will touch on later in my remarks.

我們確實發現了一些永久性的節省，這些節省貫穿了全年，我將在後面的演講中談到這一點。

And third, favorability in interest expense of $13 million was driven by our refinancing efforts during the quarter.

第三，本季我們的再融資努力推動了利息支出減少 1,300 萬美元。

Yield improvement in the first quarter versus the prior year was driven by improvements on both sides of the Atlantic from higher ticket prices and improved onboard spending.

與去年同期相比，第一季的收益有所提高，這得益於大西洋兩岸機票價格上漲和機上消費增加。

The improvement in ticket prices was broad-based across all core programs.

所有核心項目的票價都有普遍上漲。

The improvement in onboard spending, which accelerated from last quarter, was also broad-based as all categories of spending were meaningfully higher.

船上支出的改善也具有廣泛性，比上一季加速，所有類別的支出均有顯著成長。

Continuing the trend from last year, our European brands continued to outperform year over year on both price and occupancy.

延續去年的趨勢，我們的歐洲品牌在價格和入住率的表現持續優於去年。

Customer deposits at the end of the first quarter were up over $300 million versus the prior year, driven by both improved ticket prices and increased pre-cruise onboard sales.

受票價上漲和遊輪旅行前船上銷售增加的推動，第一季末的客戶存款比去年同期增加了 3 億多美元。

Next, I will provide some color on our improved full-year March guidance.

接下來，我將對我們改進的三月全年預期提供一些說明。

March guidance net income of approximately $2.5 billion is $185 million improvement over December guidance.

3 月預期淨收入約 25 億美元，較 12 月預期增加 1.85 億美元。

The improvement was essentially driven by two things.

這種改善主要由兩件事推動。

Our first-quarter favorability in yield flowed through to the full year, improving our full-year yield guidance by 0.5 point to 4.7% versus the prior year.

我們第一季的收益率優勢一直延續到全年，將全年收益率預期較上年提高 0.5 個百分點，至 4.7%。

And our refinancing efforts during the quarter allowed us to lower our full-year interest expense guidance by $100 million.

我們本季的再融資努力使我們能夠將全年利息支出預期降低 1 億美元。

I did want to point out that absolute cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be slightly less than December guidance.

我確實想指出的是，不包括燃料在內的絕對遊輪成本預計將略低於 12 月的指導價格。

As I previously indicated, we did find some permanent savings during the first quarter, which flowed through to the full year.

正如我之前所說，我們確實在第一季發現了一些永久性的節省，這些節省延續到了全年。

However, those savings were partially offset by higher dry-dock costs because of a couple of unplanned drydocks and charter hire costs associated with the sale of one of our vessels during the month of March.

然而，這些節省的部分被更高的乾船塢成本所抵消，因為在三月我們進行了幾次計劃外的干船塢作業，並且因出售我們的一艘船而產生了租船費用。

While charter hire costs increased cruise costs, they are offset by lower depreciation expense.

雖然租船費用增加了郵輪成本，但折舊費用的降低抵消了這個成本。

With absolute cruise costs slightly better, the change in cruise cost without fuel per ALBD is 3.8% for March guidance, which is simply the math of spreading lower cruise costs over the revised ALBDs, which changed from December guidance because of a couple of unplanned dry docks in 2025.

由於絕對郵輪成本略有改善，3 月份指導價中不含燃料的每艘 ALBD 郵輪成本變化為 3.8%，這只是將較低的郵輪成本分攤到修訂後的 ALBD 上的計算結果，由於 2025 年出現了幾次計劃外的干船塢，該成本與 12 月份的指導價不同。

All of this results in $6.7 billion of EBITDA, a nearly 10% improvement over 2024, virtually all of which was driven by same-store revenue growth as our capacity is essentially flat year over year.

所有這些帶來了 67 億美元的 EBITDA，比 2024 年增長了近 10%，這幾乎全部是由同店收入增長推動的，因為我們的產能與去年同期基本持平。

Now I'll finish up with an update of our refinancing and deleveraging efforts.

現在，我將介紹我們再融資和去槓桿工作的最新進展。

During the quarter, we refinanced $5.5 billion of debt, which is 20% of our total debt with three very successful transactions.

本季度，我們透過三筆非常成功的交易，對 55 億美元的債務進行了再融資，占我們總債務的 20%。

These transactions included our highest coupon debt instruments and delivered an incremental $145 million in annualized interest expense savings.

這些交易包括我們票面利率最高的債務工具，帶來了 1.45 億美元的年度利息支出節省。

We have been opportunistically reducing interest expense while simplifying our capital structure and managing our future debt maturities.

我們一直在抓住機會減少利息支出，同時簡化我們的資本結構並管理我們未來的債務到期日。

Today, our average cash interest rate is down significantly at just 4.6%.

今天，我們的平均現金利率大幅下降，僅4.6%。

Over the last 12 months, we reduced our secured and senior priority guaranteed debt by approximately $4 billion with more reductions to come.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們將有擔保債務和優先擔保債務減少了約 40 億美元，未來還會進一步減少。

Our near-term maturity towers are well managed with just $1.1 billion of debt maturities for the remainder of 2025 and $2.7 billion for the full-year 2026.

我們的近期到期債務管理良好，2025 年剩餘時間的到期債務僅為 11 億美元，2026 年全年的到期債務僅為 27 億美元。

During the first quarter, we reduced debt by another $0.5 billion, ending the quarter with $27 billion of total debt.

第一季度，我們又減少了 5 億美元債務，本季末的總債務為 270 億美元。

With the benefit of well-managed near-term maturity towers and improved leverage metrics over the remainder of this year and through 2026, we expect to opportunistically execute the rest of our current refinancing plan, prepaying debt, further simplifying our capital structure, optimizing our future debt maturities, and further reducing our interest expense.

由於管理良好的近期到期債務塔和今年剩餘時間和到 2026 年槓桿率指標的改善，我們預計將抓住機會執行當前再融資計劃的剩餘部分，提前償還債務，進一步簡化資本結構，優化未來債務到期日，並進一步降低利息支出。

For the two-year period of 2025 and 2026, this refinancing plan, combined with our strong and growing cash flow and just one new build being delivered over this time, has the potential to reduce debt by nearly $5 billion from where we ended 2024.

對於 2025 年和 2026 年的兩年期而言，該再融資計劃加上我們強勁且不斷增長的現金流以及在此期間僅交付一座新建築，有可能將債務從 2024 年底的水平減少近 50 億美元。

And let's not forget that we ended 2024 over $8 billion off the January 2023 peak.

請不要忘記，2024 年底，我們比 2023 年 1 月的高峰下降了 80 多億美元。

Looking forward, we expect our leverage metrics to continue to improve as our EBITDA continues to grow and our debt levels continue to shrink, increasing our confidence in achieving investment-grade leverage metrics in the short term as we move further down the road, rebuilding our financial fortress while continuing the process of transferring value from debt holders back to shareholders.

展望未來，隨著我們的 EBITDA 持續成長和債務水準持續縮減，我們預期我們的槓桿指標將繼續改善，這將增強我們在短期內實現投資等級槓桿指標的信心，因為我們將在未來進一步重建我們的財務堡壘，同時繼續將價值從債權人轉移回股東。

Now, operator, let's open the call for questions.

接線員，現在讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Chaiken, Mizuho Securities.

(操作員指示) 瑞穗證券的 Ben Chaiken。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thanks for taking our questions and for all the helpful commentary.

感謝您回答我們的問題並提供所有有益的評論。

I think it would be great if you could provide some more color on maybe how we're trending since the 4Q period.

我認為如果您能提供更多有關我們自第四季度以來的趨勢的詳細資訊就太好了。

Anything notable regarding changes to the consumer demand trends?

消費者需求趨勢有什麼值得注意的改變嗎？

I know that you noted not being immune from the macro, which I guess, shouldn't be a surprise.

我知道您注意到自己無法免受巨集的影響，我想這並不奇怪。

But just maybe some more color on what exactly that means?

但也許能更詳細地解釋一下這到底意味著什麼？

And then one quick follow-up.

然後進行一次快速的跟進。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, Ben.

早安，本。

Thank you for acknowledging we do live on planet Earth.

感謝您承認我們確實生活在地球上。

So look, wave was a success, right?

那你看，wave 成功了，對吧？

I mean, we set a record for bookings for further out-years.

我的意思是，我們創下了未來幾年的預訂記錄。

We came into wave at historic occupancy and price.

我們以歷史入住率和價格進入了浪潮。

We use that to our advantage.

我們利用這一點來發揮我們的優勢。

We took price, and we're well set up for the rest of the year.

我們確定了價格，並為今年剩餘的時間做好了準備。

Hence, not only do we pretty much smashed Q1 on the yields, but we maintained yield guidance for the rest of the year over 4%.

因此，我們不僅大幅突破了第一季的收益率，還將今年剩餘時間的收益率預期維持在 4% 以上。

So I think we feel real good about how we've been tackling things, and our brands are doing a good job.

所以我認為，我們對於我們處理問題的方式感到非常滿意，而且我們的品牌也做得很好。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then just to clarify maybe some of David's comments, you beat the 1Q -- you smashed the 1Q, to your point, by $165 million.

然後，也許只是為了澄清戴維的一些評論，你的第一季業績超過了預期——正如你所說，你的第一季業績超出預期 1.65 億美元。

Raised the guide, at least, from what we can tell by around $100 million.

至少，據我們所知，該指南提高了約 1 億美元。

Our take from your comments is that the net yield outlook for quarters two to four is the same.

根據您的評論，我們得出的結論是第二季至第四季的淨收益前景相同。

I think costs were actually slightly lower per David's comments, but the net cruise cost higher because of lower ALBDs from the dry docks.

我認為根據 David 的評論，成本實際上要稍微低一些，但由於乾船塢的 ALBD 較低，導致淨巡航成本較高。

I guess, what was the ALBD impact, if I got that right?

我想，沒記錯的話，ALBD 的影響是什麼？

And then I hate to be overly granular, but does the $165 million beat in 1Q versus the $100 million flow-through driven entirely by the lower ALBD dry-dock dynamic?

然後我不想太詳細，但第一季的 1.65 億美元銷售額是否超過了 1 億美元的銷售額，而 1 億美元的銷售額完全是由較低的 ALBD 幹船塢動態推動的？

Or is there anything else that you would flag?

或者您還有什麼其他需要指出的嗎？

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

So the flow -- first of all, the flow-through to the year was a combination of two things.

因此，流量——首先，全年的流量是兩件事的結合。

It was the yield that flowed through from the first quarter, which was a $98 million as well as $100 million of interest expense.

這是從第一季流出的收益，即 9,800 萬美元以及 1 億美元的利息支出。

And the total improvement for the year, I think, was $183 million.

我認為，今年的總改善額是 1.83 億美元。

I guess, I was referring to EBITDA -- sorry, the $165 million.

我想，我指的是 EBITDA——抱歉，是 1.65 億美元。

Yeah.

是的。

So the EBITDA is just basically the net income less the interest.

因此，EBITDA 基本上就是淨收入減去利息。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, Ben, the short answer is the yield flowed through for the year.

我的意思是，本，簡短的回答是全年的收益流轉。

The cost was mostly timing, which is why you don't see the full amount from Q1 going into the full year.

成本主要是時間成本，這就是為什麼你看不到第一季的全部金額進入全年。

We did reduce our absolute cost in a couple of ways, a few tens of millions of dollars.

我們確實透過幾種方法降低了絕對成本，幾千萬美元。

But because of the reduction in ALBDs because of the extra dry docks, it basically covers it up.

但由於額外的乾船塢導致 ALBD 減少，它基本上掩蓋了這一點。

Okay, got it.

好的，明白了。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thanks for clarifying.

謝謝澄清。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

瑞銀的羅賓法利（Robin Farley）。

Great, thanks very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Obviously, a lot of concern among investors because of some airline commentary and last night, a hotel data point.

顯然，一些航空公司的評論以及昨晚的酒店數據引起了投資者的擔憂。

So great news to raise guidance mostly by the Q1 beat when we look at the yield.

因此，當我們看收益率時，上調預期是一個好消息，主要是因為第一季的業績超出預期。

And just given how you talked about the close-in being strong and onboard being strong, does that suggest that you're not raising the next three quarters' yield because you want to be cautious, obviously, given the environment?

鑑於您剛才談到近端強勁和在岸強勁，這是否意味著您不會提高未來三個季度的收益率，因為考慮到當前的環境，您顯然想要謹慎行事？

But there would be that potential if your expectations for the close-in and onboard are still what they were three months ago, that there's potential upside to that guide?

但是，如果您對近距離和船上的期望仍然與三個月前相同，那麼該指南是否具有潛在的上升空間？

Is that the way to think about the rest of the year?

這就是思考今年剩餘時間的方式嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Look, I mean, the strength of Q1 was pretty fantastic.

你看，我的意思是，Q1 的實力相當出色。

And that was driven by both the close-in demand on the ticket and just tremendous onboard spending.

這是由機票的緊俏需求和巨額的機上消費共同推動的。

We're talking about 10% growth year over year for the first quarter, which is actually an acceleration of onboard spend trends versus year-over-year growth from the fourth quarter.

我們談論的是第一季同比增長 10%，這實際上是與第四季度同比增長相比船上支出趨勢的加速。

And frankly, the onboard spend that we've seen in the first couple of weeks of March, hasn't slowed down.

坦白說，我們在三月前幾週看到的船上消費並沒有放緩。

So we do feel good about the strength of our consumer.

所以我們對我們的消費者實力確實感到很滿意。

I mean, clearly, I just want to recognize that there's just a lot of volatility in the backdrop, right?

我的意思是，顯然，我只是想認識到背景中存在很大的波動，對嗎？

And with new cycles comes volatility.

新周期也帶來波動。

We feel good about our guidance.

我們對我們的指導感到滿意。

We feel good about our ability to deliver it.

我們對自己實現這目標的能力感到很滿意。

We always want to outperform, and brands work on that day in and day out.

我們始終希望能超越他人，品牌也日復一日地為此而努力。

I certainly don't promise anything other than we're going to do our best.

我當然不會承諾任何事情，除了我們會盡力而為。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then maybe just as a quick follow-up.

然後可能只是作為一個快速的後續行動。

Just if there's a way to maybe quantify with the expense.

如果有辦法可以量化費用的話。

Obviously, you said some of it was because of the ALBD.

顯然，您說部分原因是 ALBD。

Is there a way to think about either the dollar amount of sort of ongoing structural net cruise cost expense reduction and also excluding from that, the higher charter costs from the Seabourn ship, right?

有沒有辦法考慮持續的結構性淨郵輪成本費用削減的金額，並且同時排除 Seabourn 郵輪的較高租船費用，對嗎？

Because that's just sort of shifting from depreciation sort of temporarily and not really structural costs.

因為這只是暫時的折舊轉移，並不是真正的結構性成本。

So what -- how should we think about sort of additional dollar amount of structural cost, excluding that and excluding -- if we think of the aggregate dollar amount, then the ALBDs in the denominator won't matter?

那麼——我們應該如何考慮結構成本的額外美元金額，排除這一點並排除——如果我們考慮總美元金額，那麼分母中的 ALBD 就無關緊要了？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So the $65 million of cost in the first quarter, we said most of it was timing, but probably about a third of it was permanent cost savings.

因此，我們說第一季的 6,500 萬美元成本大部分是時間問題，但大概三分之一是永久性成本節省。

And we're always looking for ongoing cost savings.

我們始終致力於持續節約成本。

We do have the lowest -- the best cost structure in the industry, but that -- we don't stop there.

我們確實擁有業界最低、最好的成本結構，但是，我們並不止步於此。

We keep on finding ways to improve over time.

我們不斷尋找不斷改進的方法。

And we'll do that this year and next year and beyond.

今年、明年及以後我們都會這樣做。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

That was totally clear.

這是非常清楚的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

史蒂費爾公司的史蒂夫‧維辛斯基 (Steve Wieczynski)。

Hey, guys.

嘿，大家好。

Good morning, and congrats on the first quarter.

早安，恭喜第一季取得佳績。

So, Josh, I want to ask about bookings that you're taking in right now for 2026.

那麼，喬希，我想問一下你目前正在接受的 2026 年預訂情況。

And I know it's still a little bit early on, but just wondering if you're seeing any, what we would call, kind of material differences in bookings for '26 by brand.

我知道現在還為時過早，但我只是想知道您是否看到我們所說的 26 年品牌預訂量有實質差異。

Or maybe if you're seeing customers book, but maybe they're not prebooking onboard as much, or they're taking lower cabin categories.

或者也許您看到有顧客預訂，但也許他們沒有在機上預訂那麼多，或者他們選擇較低的艙等等級。

Just -- I mean, just trying to make sure there isn't anything you're seeing right now as we look further out that would be concerning to you, guys.

只是——我的意思是，只是想確保當我們進一步觀察時，你們現在看到的東西不會讓你們擔心。

Yeah, of course.

是的，當然。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Thanks for the compliment.

謝謝你的誇獎。

No -- I mean, I guess, the short answer is no.

不——我的意思是，我想，簡短的回答是「不」。

There's nothing that I'd say on a brand-by-brand basis was raised -- anything of interest to talk about.

我沒有針對每個品牌提出任何有趣的話題。

I love the fact that we can say that we can walk and chew gum at the same time and finish out '25, and still ground ourselves with a good foundation for '26.

我很高興我們可以邊走路邊嚼口香糖，完成 25 年，同時為 26 年打下良好的基礎。

And I think with a record book position at higher prices, that's exactly what the teams are doing.

我認為，憑藉更高價格的記錄排名，這些球隊正在做的事情正是如此。

Okay.

好的。

Got you.

明白了。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

And then the second question, it's going to be kind of somewhat the same question that Robin asked.

第二個問題與羅賓問的問題有點相似。

I just want to ask it a little bit differently.

我只是想換個方式問這個問題。

But you beat the first quarter by -- I think it was 270 basis points on the yield side of things.

但從殖利率來看，你們的收益比第一季高出了 270 個基點。

So I guess, as we think about the -- and we can see your second-quarter guidance now.

所以我想，當我們思考的時候——我們現在就可以看到你的第二季指引。

So if we think about the back half of the year, if the consumer stays status quo, there's no change in onboard, close-in remains strong, I'm guessing there's probably upside to your back-half guidance?

因此，如果我們考慮下半年的情況，如果消費者保持現狀，車上消費沒有變化，近距離消費保持強勁，我猜你的下半年預期可能會有上行空間？

I'm just trying to ask that question maybe a little bit differently or maybe

我只是想以不同的方式問這個問題，或者

--?

--？

Just to be clear, if our onboard remains real strong and our close-in demand remains real strong, then yeah, I think you're right.

需要明確的是，如果我們的船運量仍然強勁，並且近距離需求仍然強勁，那麼是的，我認為你是對的。

Okay.

好的。

That's all I needed to hear.

這正是我想要聽到的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

And I'll echo the congratulations on the first quarter and raising the full-year guide.

我也將對第一季和提高全年業績指引表示祝賀。

My question is a permutation of something you may have already gotten, I hope not.

我的問題是您可能已經得到的東西的排列，我希望不是。

But, Josh, you guys see a lot of different consumers.

但是，喬希，你們看到了很多不同的消費者。

And you see a lot of different areas of the world and how the behavior that those consumers can evolve with the current macro backdrop we're in.

你可以看到世界上許多不同地區，以及這些消費者的行為如何隨著我們所處的宏觀背景而演變。

I'm curious if you're seeing any sort of relative differences between onboard and consumer booking behavior between Europe and America, as well as between drive to and fly to?

我很好奇，您是否發現歐洲和美國的機上預訂行為和消費者預訂行為，以及駕車前往和飛行前往之間存在任何相對差異？

Got it.

知道了。

So -- good morning, Brandt.

那麼 —— 早上好，布蘭特。

So we've been talking for a long time about the strength of the portfolio and the portfolio approach that we have.

因此，我們一直在談論投資組合的實力以及我們的投資組合方法。

And going to sound like a broken record, but as I've been saying, probably, for the last six quarters now, Europe has been driving things forward real nicely.

這聽起來像是老生常談，但正如我一直在說的那樣，在過去的六個季度裡，歐洲一直在順利推動著事態的發展。

And that has continued.

這種情況一直持續著。

That's not a surprise for us because of the whole structural way that we were amping up everything since a couple of years ago.

這對我們來說並不奇怪，因為從幾年前我們就已經開始從整體結構上加強了一切。

So that's remained consistent, which doesn't mean that North America is not performing.

因此，這種情況保持一致，但這並不意味著北美沒有表現。

It just means that our European brands are outperforming the outperformance we got on this side.

這只是意味著我們的歐洲品牌的表現優於我們在這方面的表現。

So I feel pretty good about that.

所以我對此感覺很好。

I'd say consumers, whether you are low end, middle of the road, high end, luxury, every person is different, right?

我想說消費者，無論你是低端、中端、高端還是奢侈品，每個人都是不同的，對嗎？

And every person is going to internalize the backdrop of what they're dealing with differently and make their choices.

每個人都會以不同的方式內化他們所面對的不同事情的背景並做出自己的選擇。

And our portfolio approach works incredibly well against that backdrop.

在這樣的背景下，我們的投資組合方法發揮了非常好的作用。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

And then just a quick follow-up.

然後只是快速的跟進。

If -- let's say that -- no one has a crystal ball.

如果 — — 可以這麼說 — — 沒有人擁有水晶球。

Let's say the consumer slows further.

假設消費者進一步放慢速度。

And if there's a slowdown in bookings industry-wide or let's just even say, away from you, how do you perceive the industry's current willingness to sort of hold price or act more rationally than it has in the past?

如果整個行業的預訂量都出現放緩，或者說，如果您不了解情況，您如何看待該行業目前維持價格或比過去採取更理性行動的意願？

Look, I'll speak for myself.

瞧，我會為自己說話。

I won't -- I would not speak for the industry, other than to say, I think the industry overall is on good, solid ground.

我不會——我不會代表這個行業發言，我只能說，我認為這個行業總體上是良好、穩固的。

We've got great leaders at those operations that are doing real good things for the industry as well as their brands.

我們在這些營運中擁有出色的領導者，他們為行業及其品牌做出了真正的貢獻。

And we're increasing consideration, increasing demand, which is a great thing for everybody.

我們正在增加考慮，增加需求，這對每個人來說都是一件好事。

With respect to us, we're executing on the things that we've been talking about for years.

就我們而言，我們正在執行多年來一直在談論的事情。

It's resulted right now in us being better booked than pretty much we've ever been.

因此，現在我們的預訂情況比以前任何時候都好。

We have great visibility, not that much to go in this year; onboard spends, we pull forward, which has enhanced visibility versus prior periods.

我們的前景看好，今年要做的準備不多；我們將船上支出向前推進，與前期相比，其可見度有所提高。

So -- and we, in particular, we have no capacity growth, right?

所以—特別是我們，我們的產能沒有成長，對嗎？

So we are in a fairly enviable position, I think, that even newbuilds are great, but we can do a lot with what we've got.

因此，我認為，我們處於一個相當令人羨慕的地位，即使是新建的船隻也很棒，但我們可以利用現有的資源做很多事情。

And having only one ship coming this year, none in 2026, one in '27, I mean, that, for us, that's a fantastic road map for success.

今年只有一艘船即將到來，2026年沒有，2027年只有一艘，我的意思是，對我們來說，這是完美的成功路線圖。

So we're looking forward to it.

所以我們對此充滿期待。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Congrats again on the quarter.

再次恭喜本季取得佳績。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Hardiman, Citigroup.

花旗集團的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

Yeah.

是的。

With the -- I guess, tying this all up, outside of bookings and onboard spend, which you've talked about, are there any other forward indicators that you think might be a good indicator of your consumer sentiment or whether -- how they are with respect to making payments for their trips, or how many you're buying travel or insurance or any -- what are any of those indicators are showing?

我想，除了您談到的預訂和機上消費之外，還有其他前瞻性指標可以很好地反映您的消費者情緒嗎？

James, you're going deep.

詹姆斯，你走得太深了。

No, nothing out of the ordinary that would trigger flags.

不，沒有任何異常情況會觸發標誌。

Cancellations are fairly consistent.

取消的情況相當一致。

So there's really nothing else that we'd probably put on the table to talk about as anything of significance.

因此，我們實際上可能沒有其他重要的事情可以討論。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And with the 12% ROIC in sight, can you give us any indication of what you think the long-term opportunity is there, specifically kind of how you guys think about the return profile for Celebration Key and the other sort of non-ship investments?

在 12% 的 ROIC 即將實現的情況下，您能否告訴我們其中的長期機會是什麼，特別是您如何看待 Celebration Key 和其他非船舶投資的回報狀況？

Are there any other investments that we should be thinking about that are significantly ahead of your corporate average?

我們還應該考慮其他哪些投資，而這些投資明顯高於貴公司的平均？

Well, I think, overall, we feel really good about the progress we've been making on the returns that we're generating.

嗯，我認為，總的來說，我們對所取得的回報進展感到非常滿意。

I certainly don't view and never did view 12% as an ending point.

我絕對不認為、也從未將 12% 視為終點。

So mid-teens is certainly realistic and certainly what we'll be shooting for.

因此，十幾歲的年紀肯定是現實的，也是我們努力的目標。

The things that are going to drive it are really the continuation of doing our jobs better across the brands in the commercial space, watching the costs like we always do as a low-cost industry leader, and being able to lean into the investments that we're making around Celebration Key, RelaxAway, and doing some other things with positioning of some of the destinations that we currently own, which are phenomenal.

真正推動這一進程的是我們繼續在商業領域的各個品牌中更好地完成工作，像我們作為低成本行業領導者一樣關注成本，並能夠依靠我們在 Celebration Key 和 RelaxAway 周圍進行的投資，以及對我們目前擁有的一些目的地進行定位等一些其他事情，這些事情非常了不起。

And on top of that, aside from the moderate -- I'd say, modest capacity growth we have, we are investing in ourselves in other ways.

除此之外，除了適度（我想說，適度的）產能成長之外，我們還在以其他方式進行投資。

We've talked about AIDA Evolution, for example -- I think I said it in my prepared remarks -- which you take one of the most successful brands in the world, and you reinvest in them in their existing capacity to add revenue opportunities, cabins.

例如，我們討論過 AIDA Evolution — — 我想我在準備好的發言中說過 — — 它選取世界上最成功的品牌之一，並在其現有產能基礎上進行再投資，以增加收入機會和客艙。

That's going to serve us incredibly well as is the investments we're making in Alaska, to delight our guests and really cement our strategic advantage even further on our land-sea packages and what we have to offer in Alaska.

這將為我們帶來極大的好處，就像我們在阿拉斯加的投資一樣，它將讓我們的客人感到滿意，並進一步鞏固我們在陸海套餐和我們在阿拉斯加所提供的服務方面的戰略優勢。

So I think that we're in a pretty strong place.

所以我認為我們處於相當有利的地位。

I guess, just really quick off of that, delivering your target so early, any indication when we might get new long-term outlook?

我想，很快，您這麼早就實現了目標，有什麼跡象表明我們何時可以獲得新的長期前景？

Man, I love that you're even asking that.

哥們，我很高興你問了這個問題。

So I think we've got to get to the targets, not just forecast them.

所以我認為我們必須實現目標，而不僅僅是預測目標。

So my expectation would be, we'll be talking about our next set, hopefully, in early 2026.

因此我的期望是，我們能夠在 2026 年初討論下一組產品。

But that's -- we've got to deliver.

但那是──我們必須實現的。

All right.

好的。

Thanks a lot, guys.

非常感謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I want to follow up on the comment in here, in the press release about not being completely immune from the heightened economic political volatility since giving your guidance in December.

我想跟進一下新聞稿中的評論，關於自去年 12 月您提供指導以來，您並未完全免受日益加劇的經濟政治波動的影響。

Regarding that volatility, have you actually seen the volatility have any impact on booking pace as the quarter progressed?

關於這種波動，您是否實際看到波動隨著季度的發展對預訂速度產生了任何影響？

Yeah.

是的。

Well, we -- look, we certainly saw ups and downs.

嗯，我們——看，我們確實看到了起起落落。

I mean, we see ups and downs every year.

我的意思是，我們每年都會經歷起起落落。

So that's not terribly surprising.

所以這並不太令人驚訝。

It all came out to the bookings we were able to make at the pricing that we wanted to make and sets us up, as we talked about, in a really good position.

總而言之，我們能夠以我們想要的價格進行預訂，正如我們所討論的那樣，這為我們帶來了非常有利的地位。

And at the end of the day, people just need to be getting used to the new normal, which is exactly what's happening.

最終，人們只需要適應新常態，而這正是正在發生的事情。

As a matter of fact, last week, bookings nicely ahead year over year.

事實上，上週的預訂量較去年同期大幅成長。

And not everything is the end all be all for year over year, but it's what we talked about publicly.

雖然並非所有事情都會年復一年地結束，但這就是我們公開談論的內容。

And particularly to the point people were asking about close-in, our close-in bookings last week for the second quarter for literally sailing in the second quarter -- we don't have that much to go -- and the booking volume and pricing was just off the charts.

特別是人們詢問的近距離預訂情況，我們上週第二季度的近距離預訂實際上是在第二季度航行——我們沒有那麼多的預訂——預訂量和價格都超出了預期。

So we've just got to let the world progress.

所以我們必須讓世界進步。

We'll take what we want to take as we go and carry out the year.

我們將採取一切我們想採取的措施來度過這一年。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Jaime Katz, Morningstar.

晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

I want to talk a little bit about the cadence of costs over the rest of the year.

我想稍微談談今年剩餘時間的成本節奏。

I think there were set to be higher dry docks in both Q2 and Q3 this year.

我認為今年第二季和第三季的乾船塢數量都會增加。

And so as we think about the arc of expenses, can you help us sort of flow through whether those are more equal or if maybe that is more weighted to Q2, those dry docks?

因此，當我們考慮費用曲線時，您能否幫助我們理清這些費用是否更加平等，或者是否可能更偏向第二季度的乾船塢費用？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So as I had indicated on the December call, we had expected that both the second-quarter and third-quarter costs would be up a little bit more than the full year and that the fourth quarter would be up a little bit less than the full year.

因此，正如我在 12 月電話會議上所指出的那樣，我們預計第二季和第三季的成本都會比全年略高，而第四季的成本會比全年略低。

So -- and nothing has changed since then.

所以——從那時起什麼都沒有改變。

Okay.

好的。

And then as we think about the lengthening of the booking curve, I'm just trying to triangulate what the visibility looks like now relative to the past.

然後，當我們考慮預訂曲線的延長時，我只是試圖三角測量現在相對於過去的可見性。

I think, historically, it used to be that you guys were booked maybe like 50% to 70% out for 2Q and then maybe 30% to 50% out for Q3.

我認為，從歷史上看，你們第二季的預訂量可能為 50% 到 70%，而第三季的預訂量可能為 30% 到 50%。

Has that decoupled a little bit and moved a little bit higher, just so we could have more certainty on what the rest of the year looks like?

這是否已經稍微脫鉤並且稍微走高了一點，只是為了讓我們對今年剩餘時間的情況有更確定的了解？

Yeah.

是的。

All of those numbers that I used to give for the next -- the current quarter and the next three, we are above the top end of all of those ranges.

我過去給出的當前季度和未來三個季度的所有數字均高於所有這些範圍的最高值。

And so as a result, as Josh said, we're about 80% booked for the remainder of this year.

因此，正如喬希所說，我們今年剩餘時間的預訂率約為 80%。

If you took the top end of all the ranges, you'd be -- you would get an average of 70% for the rest of the year.

如果您取所有範圍的最高值，那麼您將獲得當年剩餘時間的平均值 70%。

So we're at the top end of -- over the top end of all the ranges.

因此，我們處於所有範圍的最高端。

Excellent, that's really helpful.

非常好，這真的很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安（Conor Cunningham），Melius Research。

Hi, everyone.

大家好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You've been super clear on the strength of bookings.

您已經非常清楚預訂的力道了。

But I wanted to just maybe come back to the levers that you have if things did weaken.

但如果情況確實惡化，也許我只想回到現有的槓桿上。

You talked about how you would work to achieve a lot of these results that are kind of flowing through.

您談到了您將如何努力實現這些正在產生的成果。

And again, that doesn't seem like it's a demand problem.

而且，這看起來不像是需求問題。

But like at the end of the day, if things were to weaken, what cost levers do you think you have right now that could be low-hanging fruit if things were to deteriorate on some level?

但最終，如果情況變得糟糕，您認為現在有哪些成本槓桿可以輕易實現，以防情況在某種程度上惡化？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well -- good morning.

嗯--早安。

The best lever we probably have is, if the world takes a turn, we don't hedge.

我們可能擁有的最好的槓桿是，如果世界發生變化，我們不會迴避。

And because we don't hedge on commodities -- generally speaking, commodities turn with that world.

而且由於我們不會對商品進行對沖——一般而言，商品會隨著世界的變化而改變。

And so there's a natural hedge in our business by the basis of how we run it.

因此，根據我們經營業務的基礎，我們的業務中存在著一種自然的對沖。

Look, we clearly can do a lot of things if we really choose or need to do that.

看，如果我們真的選擇或需要這樣做，我們顯然可以做很多事情。

Our first goal is to deliver the results that we want to deliver because we think that's the right thing for the business, right, the guest experience that we want to give, the investments that we want to make for the long term, not just for the short term.

我們的首要目標是實現我們想要實現的結果，因為我們認為這對企業來說是正確的事情，對的，我們想要提供的客戶體驗，我們想要為長期而非短期進行的投資。

But everything is always looked at pretty critically to decide what makes sense in the current environment because the world does change.

但由於世界確實在變化，所以一切事物總是會被非常批判地看待，以決定在當前環境下什麼才是有意義的。

And we've clearly got room, should we need to, to make a lot of changes depending on what that circumstance could be.

而且，如果需要的話，我們顯然有足夠的空間根據具體情況做出許多改變。

Okay.

好的。

And then I think a big part of the plan this year and over the next couple of years as supply is a little bit limited for you guys, has been to push marketing spend and to drive like improved revenue quality and so on.

然後我認為，由於你們的供應有點有限，今年和未來幾年的計劃很大一部分就是推動行銷支出並提高收入品質等等。

So could you just talk a little bit about how that strategy is playing out right now?

那麼能否稍微談談該策略目前的實施情況？

It seems like it's working.

看起來它正在起作用。

But I just -- the two levers that I think from a revenue management standpoint are just like inventory and marketing.

但我只是 — — 我認為從收入管理的角度來看，兩個槓桿就像庫存和行銷。

So if you could just talk about the balance of those two going forward, that would be helpful.

因此，如果您能談談未來這兩者之間的平衡，那將會很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, no, thanks very much.

是的，不，非常感謝。

We've talked about it.

我們已經討論過了。

We've strategically been changing our investment approach when it comes to things like advertising.

在廣告等領域，我們一直在策略性地改變我們的投資方式。

We're spending much more on a per unit basis than we did back five, six years ago, and still a good amount less than many others in the vacation and leisure space.

我們單位支出比五、六年前多得多，但比度假休閒領域的許多其他公司還是少很多。

We think we're getting the balance right.

我們認為我們已經取得了正確的平衡。

As far as, is it working, look, first quarter just ended.

至於它是否有效，看看，第一季剛結束。

Our yields over the last two years are up 24%.

我們的收益率在過去兩年上漲了24%。

I think that's probably a pretty good indication that it is working and also that you don't need new builds to drive that demand because the vast majority of our brands don't have any.

我認為這可能是一個很好的跡象，表明它正在發揮作用，並且你不需要新建築來推動這種需求，因為我們的絕大多數品牌都沒有新建建築。

So that same-ship sales, if you will, and that goes to how we manage the curve on the yields.

所以如果你願意的話，同船銷售就是我們如何管理殖利率曲​​線。

The advertising that we do, both the creative, top-of-funnel type of things, and then the digital performance, our relationships with the trade and then delivering on board.

我們所做的廣告，包括創意的、漏斗頂端類型的廣告，還有數位表現、我們與貿易的關係以及隨後的交付。

And I think the brands are doing an incredible amount of work to make that happen.

我認為各品牌正在付出大量努力來實現這一目標。

And I do think advertising helps unlock that, and so we have unleashed it while maintaining the cost structure that we think is appropriate.

我確實認為廣告有助於實現這一目標，因此我們在保持我們認為合適的成本結構的同時釋放了這一潛力。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Katz, Jefferies.

傑富瑞（Jefferies）的戴維·卡茨（David Katz）。

Hi, good morning, and well done all around.

大家早安，大家表現都很好。

I wanted to just bring forth a debate that we have a lot.

我只是想提出一個我們有很多爭論的問題。

And is there any evidence that is shareable around any of the bookings from consumers trading down, right?

有沒有可以分享的證據來顯示消費者的預訂量下降了？

We assume that there is some trading down to the value of a cruise versus the much more expensive hotels, particularly domestically and potentially, some that are may be priced out of a cruise, that may be at a different end of the spectrum.

我們假設，與價格昂貴得多的酒店（尤其是國內酒店）相比，郵輪旅行的價值會有所降低，而且有些酒店的價格可能超出了郵輪旅行的價格，這可能處於價格範圍的另一個極端。

Is there anything that we can discuss or unpack there?

有什麼事情我們可以討論或解決嗎？

So I think that's two separate questions.

所以我認為這是兩個獨立的問題。

So first, the concept of, quote, trading down to a cruise, I'd look at it differently.

因此，首先，對於「交易降級為遊輪」這個概念，我會以不同的方式看待。

I'd say that we have a tremendous price-to-experience ratio compared to land.

我想說，與陸地相比，我們擁有極高的價格與體驗比。

And people recognize that value more and more if they're looking to make the dollar go further.

如果人們希望美元進一步升值，他們就會越來越認識到美元的價值。

And even though it pisses me off when we look at the price gap because there's so much opportunity for us that I'm excited about.

儘管當我們看到價格差距時我會感到很生氣，但這對我們來說有太多讓我興奮的機會了。

In those types of times, that is a huge strength that we have because we can outperform the experience we give for the price that we charge compared to land.

在那種時候，這是我們擁有的一個巨大的優勢，因為我們可以以與土地相比收取的價格提供超越我們所提供的體驗。

As far as -- and the fact that we're carrying more new-to-cruise than we ever have -- new to cruise, the growth rate for Q1 alone was significantly multiple times higher than the growth rate on the capacity.

事實上，我們搭載的新郵輪數量比以往任何時候都多，光是第一季的成長率就比運力成長率高出數倍。

So it's working.

所以它正在發揮作用。

As far as trading down within cruise, there's nothing that we see because our brands have a pretty good mix within themselves to be able to cater to people at lots of different price points.

至於郵輪產業的降價現象，我們並沒有看到，因為我們的品牌本身就具有相當好的產品組合，能夠滿足不同價位的顧客的需求。

We talk about Carnival a lot, and people have concerns about Carnival because of X, Y, Z, and consumer.

我們經常談論嘉年華，人們因為 X、Y、Z 和消費者而對嘉年華有所擔憂。

Keep in mind, Carnival's got suites on eight days, which are very different from inside cabins on three nighters.

請記住，嘉年華在八天期間提供套房，這與在三晚期間提供的內艙有很大不同。

So we have a lot of product to be able to source lots of folks brand by brand up and down the price points.

因此，我們擁有大量產品，能夠為眾多消費者以價格高低逐個品牌提供產品。

I'll apologize for the word choice about trading down.

我對於選擇降級交易的措辭表示歉意。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

My quick follow-up is that the sale of the Seabourn ship at a gain, can you just elaborate on the reasoning behind that and the timing of it?

我的後續問題是，Seabourn 郵輪以盈利的方式出售，您能詳細解釋一下背後的原因和時機嗎？

Just a little insight.

只是一點見解。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, yeah.

是啊是啊。

I mean, it's actually pretty simple.

我的意思是，它實際上非常簡單。

We've got a cash offer that, when I looked at that offer versus what I thought the impact would be for that ship over an appropriate amount of time and what the impact would be on the rest of that fleet and its ability to manage its yields, it was the decision that was in the best interest of the shareholders.

我們收到了一份現金報價，當我將該報價與我認為在適當的時間內對該船的影響以及對該船隊其餘部分及其管理收益的能力的影響進行比較時，這個決定是最符合股東利益的。

It's as simple as that.

就這麼簡單。

Nothing's for sale.

沒有東西可賣。

We don't have a for-sale sign up.

我們沒有待售標誌。

But if people are approaching us unsolicited for offers, I'll listen.

但如果有人主動向我們提出報價，我會聽取。

And if it's the right thing to do for the shareholders, then we'll do it.

如果這對股東來說是正確的事情，那麼我們就會這麼做。

And that was -- doesn't happen very often, but that was one of these cases.

這種情況並不常見，但確實存在這種情況。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Yeah.

是的。

I'll just say Seabourn is a phenomenal brand.

我只想說 Seabourn 是一個非凡的品牌。

We are talking about one of the youngest fleets around the world, ultra-luxury.

我們正在談論的是世界上最年輕的船隊之一，超級豪華。

And they are going gangbusters.

他們正大獲成功。

So the yields are up nicely.

因此收益率大幅上升。

Like, there's nothing wrong, other than the fact that somebody made us an offer that we couldn't refuse.

就好像，沒有什麼不對，只是有人給我們提出了一個無法拒絕的提議。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的馬修‧博斯 (Matthew Boss)。

Great, thanks.

非常好，謝謝。

So, Josh, close-in demand off the charts, no slowdown in onboard spend in the last few weeks.

因此，喬希 (Josh)，近來需求超出預期，過去幾週船上支出沒有放緩。

It seems like the near term is crystal clear.

看來近期的情況已經非常明朗。

So maybe multi-year, could you elaborate on new customer acquisition that you're seeing across the portfolio, maybe tied to the new marketing that you cited and walked through; and just structural improvement opportunities that you see across your brands, given the portfolio approach that you have?

所以也許是多年的，您能否詳細說明您在整個投資組合中看到的新客戶獲取情況，也許與您引用和經歷的新行銷有關？考慮到您採用的投資組合方法，您在品牌中看到了哪些結構性改善機會？

Yeah.

是的。

So with respect to guest composition, we're -- it's actually a pretty interesting place now, right?

所以就嘉賓組成而言，我們——現在實際上是一個非常有趣的地方，對吧？

Because effectively, with no growth on the horizon, every brand has the same capacity that they have year over year, which means it's -- we're not trying to fill new capacity and cast a net wider for purposes of just needing more bodies.

因為實際上，在沒有成長前景的情況下，每個品牌的產能與去年同期相比都是一樣的，這意味著——我們不會為了需要更多的員工而試圖填補新的產能並擴大規模。

And so the idea of first-time cruisers, brand switchers, and loyalists, it really becomes a dynamic of who's willing to pay the most to get on the ship.

因此，首次乘船遊客、品牌轉換者和忠誠遊客之間的差異實際上體現在誰願意支付最高價登上遊輪的問題上。

And so, yes, we have been ramping up first timers, which I think is a testament to the brand's strength and the marketing that they've been doing and the experiences that they give.

所以，是的，我們一直在增加首次參觀者的人數，我認為這證明了品牌的實力以及他們所做的行銷和他們提供的體驗。

Ultimately, though -- ultimately, it's going to really be a matter of getting that optimal mix based on the price points and what generates the most revenue.

但歸根結底，這實際上還是基於價格點以及產生最多收入的因素來獲得最佳組合的問題。

I think it's also useful over the next couple of years.

我認為它在接下來的幾年裡也會有用。

It's extreme slowdown for us in capacity growth.

我們的產能成長極為放緩。

But the industry overall is slowing its growth rate.

但整個產業的成長速度正在放緩。

So I think that there's -- that certainly doesn't hurt us.

所以我認為這肯定不會對我們造成傷害。

It helps us.

它對我們有幫助。

With respect to your second question, could you just elaborate a little bit more on what you were thinking?

關於您的第二個問題，能否進一步詳細說明您的想法？

Yeah.

是的。

Just with the new marketing, what you're seeing in terms of new customers as well as brands that maybe haven't returned to 2019 metrics.

透過新的行銷，您會看到新客戶以及可能尚未恢復到 2019 年指標的品牌。

Just the next leg of opportunity that you have relative to maybe others in the industry if we remain at robust levels.

如果我們保持強勁的水平，相對於業內其他人而言，您就擁有下一個機會。

Yeah.

是的。

Our brands are on a spectrum from having recovered past '19 levels to not yet there.

我們的品牌目前的情況是，從已恢復到 19 世紀的水平到尚未恢復。

Some of that has to do, as you've heard me say in the past, is what their '19 levels were to begin with.

其中有些與他們的 19 個級別一開始的情況有關，正如您過去聽我說過的那樣。

And so we're not patting ourselves on the back in some cases because they exceeded 2019 levels, because they should have been higher than and they are now, with plenty of runway.

因此，在某些情況下，我們不會因為它們超過了 2019 年的水平而自我表揚，因為它們應該更高，而且現在也有足夠的空間。

I would say the vast majority of our brands have -- if we boil it down to ROIC, the vast majority of our brands have multiple points in the medium term that they're going to be able to take advantage of.

我想說，如果我們將其歸結為投資資本回報率 (ROIC)，那麼我們絕大多數的品牌在中期都擁有多個可以利用的點。

And primarily, that's going to be due to continuation on the improvement we've been making on the revenue side.

這主要歸功於我們在收入方面的持續進步。

And that's what the trajectory is for those brands.

這就是這些品牌的發展軌跡。

They are making jumps by leaps and bounds, and they've got a lot more to go.

他們正在突飛猛進，但還有很長的路要走。

And I am excited about that.

我對此感到很興奮。

Great.

偉大的。

And then, David, maybe just to switch gears, on your goal to return to the fortress balance sheet, how are you thinking about capital allocation priorities beyond debt paydown as you approach investment-grade metrics?

然後，大衛，也許只是為了換個話題，關於你回到堡壘資產負債表的目標，當你接近投資等級指標時，除了償還債務之外，你是如何考慮資本配置優先事項的？

So as Josh said before, the immediate debt paydown is priority one, two, and three.

因此，正如喬希之前所說，立即償還債務是第一、第二和第三要務。

But as I had indicated in my remarks, we're talking about potentially a $5 billion additional paydown.

但正如我在發言中指出的那樣，我們討論的是可能的 50 億美元的額外償還。

And when you start thinking about 2026, we should be beyond investment-grade metric leverage.

當你開始思考2026年時，我們應該超越投資等級指標槓桿。

And so as a result of that, we'll be -- not only are we investing in ourselves and all the examples that Josh gave.

因此，我們不僅會投資自己，還會投資喬希舉的所有例子。

But we will be considering other priorities.

但我們會考慮其他優先事項。

And we'll be talking about that as we move forward into 2026 and beyond.

我們將在 2026 年及以後討論這個問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Congrats on the continued momentum.

恭喜您繼續保持良好勢頭。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的莉齊‧多夫 (Lizzie Dove)。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks so much for taking the question, and congrats on a great Q1.

非常感謝您回答這個問題，並祝賀您取得了出色的第一問題回答。

I guess, going back to luxury for a second, you have Seabourn and you have Cunard.

我想，讓我們再回到奢侈品的話題上，我們有 Seabourn 和 Cunard。

Obviously, the last few weeks, we've had mixed commentary from other cruise companies about luxury.

顯然，在過去幾週，我們從其他遊輪公司聽到了關於奢華的不同評價。

Curious just to zoom in on that.

我很好奇，想放大看一下。

Anything you would kind of flag there and what you're seeing on the luxury trend specifically?

您想指出什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

Morning, Lizzie.

早安，莉齊。

Nothing interesting to talk about, I don't think.

我認為，沒有什麼有趣的事可談。

As you heard me say, Seabourn has been making great progress year over year as is Cunard.

正如您所聽到的，Seabourn 和 Cunard 每年都在取得巨大進步。

So yeah, I'm sorry.

是的，我很抱歉。

I guess, the answer is no.

我想，答案是否定的。

Short and sweet.

簡短而甜蜜。

That's great to hear.

我很高興聽到這個消息。

And I guess, totally switching gears for a second, I'll ask about Celebration Key.

我想，完全換個話題，我會問關於慶典鑰匙 (Celebration Key) 的問題。

I mean, you're now through most of wave season.

我的意思是，你現在已經度過了大部分海浪季節。

Curious just what you've been seeing there, how much the kind of consumer reception has been to the marketing you put around that, whether you're still on track to kind of open right at the end of summer.

我很好奇您在那裡看到了什麼，消費者對您所進行的行銷活動的反應如何，您是否仍計劃在夏末開業。

Just any updates you can give around that, would be helpful.

只要您提供與此相關的任何更新信息，就會很有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Yeah, no, first of all, from an operational standpoint, everything is proceeding exactly on track.

是的，首先，從營運的角度來看，一切都在按計劃進行。

And the teams are doing a phenomenal job, not only in the finishing up of the construction but in the massive undertaking, that is training and getting ready on the land-based operations themselves to be able to deliver the experiences that we want to deliver.

這些團隊做得非常出色，不僅完成了建設工作，還完成了大規模的任務，即在陸上作業中進行培訓和準備，以便能夠提供我們想要提供的體驗。

We are seeing the premiums that we expected to see when we started this project a long time ago.

我們看到了很久以前啟動該專案時就預期看到的溢價。

And so things are progressing exactly -- I mean, honestly, exactly as planned, which is a shout out to the teams for doing all the right things.

所以事情的進展完全按照計劃進行——我的意思是，老實說，完全按照計劃進行，這是對團隊所做的所有正確事情的讚揚。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thanks, Liz.

謝謝，莉茲。

Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research.

克里夫蘭研究公司的文斯·西皮爾（Vince Ciepiel）

Thanks.

謝謝。

I wanted to lean a little bit more into the land there.

我想更多地了解那裡的土地。

What would you expect the Celebration Key to kind of be peak noticeability in your bookings surge in light of how that Carnival product books, the opening and awareness of the island?

考慮到嘉年華產品的預訂情況、島嶼的開放和知名度，您認為慶典之鑰在預訂量激增的過程中會達到什麼樣的高峰？

And then additionally, I know this is the new part of your land portfolio, but you have quite a sizable footprint already.

此外，我知道這是您土地投資組合的新部分，但您的足跡已經相當大了。

I know there's expansion with -- I think it's Half Moon Cay pier, an investment into the Alaska, part of the portfolio.

我知道有擴建計畫——我認為是半月礁碼頭，這是對阿拉斯加的投資，也是投資組合的一部分。

Just how are you thinking about your opportunity in the land stuff in years ahead?

您如何看待未來幾年在土地領域的機會？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Vince.

謝謝，文斯。

So a bunch of questions there.

這裡有很多問題。

So as far as the impact of Celebration Key, I think it's pretty fascinating.

就慶典之鑰的影響而言，我認為它非常有趣。

We're still in make-believe land, right?

我們仍然處於虛構的世界中，對嗎？

So everything we're putting out in -- on the marketing side, really, is in the imagination.

所以，我們在行銷方面投入的一切其實都存在於想像之中。

And I think that, coupled with, as you said, the primary tenant there is going to be Carnival Cruise Line, a huge amount of which is short cruises, three, four, five nighters, that have a much shorter window than booking on the sevens and eigths; means that we haven't seen the -- by any stretch of the imagination, we haven't seen the full impact -- Carnival hasn't seen the full impact on the benefits.

而且我認為，正如您所說，那裡的主要租戶將是嘉年華郵輪公司，其中大量的是短途遊輪，三天、四天或五晚，比七天和八天的預訂時間要短得多；意味著我們還沒有看到——無論如何，我們還沒有看到全部影響——嘉年華還沒有看到對收益的全部影響。

And I do think the ability to leverage it in operations and generate content and guest experience with our guests with the trade is going to be a springboard forward, which is a great thing for Celebration Key.

我確實認為，在營運中利用它並為我們的客人創造內容和體驗的能力將成為前進的跳板，這對 Celebration Key 來說是一件好事。

We easily see a path where, by the end of the decade, what was about 6.5 million guests going through our Caribbean footprint in 2024 could be upwards of 11 million, which is a phenomenal thing.

我們很容易就能看到這樣的趨勢：到 2020 年，到加勒比海地區遊玩的遊客人數將從 2024 年的 650 萬人增加到 1,100 萬人，這是一個了不起的數字。

And I think the thing that we're learning, which we haven't really benefited from in full, is how we position -- how we brand and position our destinations themselves to make them part of the consideration set of the consumer.

我認為我們正在學習但尚未完全受益的東西是如何定位——如何建立我們的目的地品牌並進行定位，以使其成為消費者考慮的一部分。

Because historically, it's very much been about just the crews and the brand, and then delight them when they're in our destination.

因為從歷史上看，這很大程度上只是關乎機組人員和品牌，然後當他們到達目的地時讓他們感到高興。

But we have the ability to make it a driver for taking the cruise to begin with.

但我們有能力讓它成為搭乘遊輪的動力。

And so we're starting to lean into that, obviously, with Celebration Key.

因此，顯然，我們開始透過 Celebration Key 來傾向這一點。

And we're going to do more of that.

我們將會做更多這樣的事。

And Celebration Key is something that, when we open, that's just phase one.

當我們打開慶典鑰匙時，這只是第一階段。

And we've got plans that will take us through the end of the decade to be able to significantly increase that throughput, which, as I mentioned, helps us drive that guest count up to about 11 million.

我們制定了計劃，到 2020 年，我們將能夠大幅提高吞吐量，正如我所提到的那樣，這將幫助我們將客人數量提高到約 1100 萬。

With respect to Alaska, look, we -- if you haven't been there, I strongly suggest you've got to do it by cruise.

關於阿拉斯加，看，我們 - 如果你還沒有去過那裡，我強烈建議你乘遊輪去。

And if you do it, you have to do a cruise land-sea package because that is the greatest way to see the great state.

如果您要這樣做，您必須購買遊輪海陸套餐，因為這是遊覽這個偉大州的最佳方式。

And it is a strategic advantage that we do have, given the scope of our operations in Alaska.

考慮到我們在阿拉斯加的業務範圍，這確實是一個戰略優勢。

And we're going to continue to lean into that because it is one of the most popular itineraries and programs that we have in the whole portfolio.

我們將繼續傾向於此，因為這是我們整個產品組合中最受歡迎的行程和項目之一。

Great.

偉大的。

I wanted to sneak one more in.

我想再偷偷溜進去一次。

You mentioned a little bit earlier on the European business.

您之前提到了歐洲業務。

In the travel industry more broadly right now, there's a lot of talk on inbound-outbound for the US.

目前，在更廣泛的旅遊業中，人們對美國入境和出境旅遊的討論很多。

And I know that you source a fair amount of your European brands in Europe.

我知道你們從歐洲採購了相當一部分歐洲品牌。

And I would imagine a lot of the North American brands heavily over-index to North American guests.

我可以想像許多北美品牌對北美客人的吸引力過大。

But anything that you've seen in your data on any shift in flow of inbound interest to the US and if that, at all, is a big part of your business?

但是，您是否從數據中看出，美國入境遊客興趣有任何變化？

Well, I guess, I'll answer in reverse.

嗯，我想，我會反過來回答。

Is it a big part of our business?

這是我們業務的重要組成部分嗎？

It's not a huge part of our business.

這不是我們業務的很大一部分。

We strategically try to put our ships where our guest base is.

我們策略性地嘗試將我們的船隻停靠在客人聚集的地方。

I think in the volatility that we talked about in the first quarter, certainly, Canada was swept up in that.

我認為，我們在第一季談到的波動中，加拿大肯定受到了影響。

Now for us, that's 3% to 4% of our business, just to put it into context.

現在對我們來說，這只是我們業務的 3% 到 4%，這只是一個大致情況。

But clearly, we read -- everybody reads the news, and we're not immune from that dynamic.

但顯然，我們——每個人都讀新聞，我們也無法免於這種動態的影響。

But going back to the strategy, by being able to target specific countries with specific brands that cater to their needs and preferences and position them where people can get to drive if they want to, it's a recipe for success for us in this environment.

但回到策略上，透過能夠針對特定國家推出滿足其需求和偏好的特定品牌，並將其定位在人們願意駕駛的地方，這是我們在這種環境下取得成功的秘訣。

Great. thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。

Operator, we have time for one more.

接線員，我們還有時間再做一次。

[Chris Stathopoulos, SIG].

[Chris Stathopoulos，SIG]。

Good morning, Josh, David, team.

早安，喬希、大衛、團隊。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So I'm going to close it out -- I'll keep it to one and hopefully try to, I guess, consolidate here the questions around demand.

所以我要結束這個主題了——我會只問一個問題，並且希望能在這裡整合有關需求的問題。

Because I think it's the question I'm getting here.

因為我認為這就是我在這裡要問的問題。

Investors are trying to tease out the health of the consumer and whether any weakness at this point is localized to a specific consumer demographic or regions.

投資者試圖弄清楚消費者的健康狀況，以及此時的任何弱點是否局限於特定的消費者群體或地區。

So if we use the airlines here as a proxy -- there was a comment earlier on the call -- last week, US domestic basic economy, close-in weakness, exact opposite of what you're seeing here.

因此，如果我們以航空公司作為代理商——早些時候在電話會議上有評論——上週，美國國內基本經濟接近疲軟，與您在這裡看到的情況完全相反。

What is similar -- it sounds like premium international demand is similar.

相似之處在於——聽起來國際高端需求是相似的。

So as we look across your brand scale from contemporary, premium, luxury, and we adjust for mix shifts, the earlier question on regional source travelers, is there anything that is different or unique with the pace of bookings or onboard spend at this point?

因此，當我們從現代、高端、豪華的角度審視您的品牌規模並進行組合調整時，我們之前關於區域客源地的問題，目前的預訂速度或機上消費是否有什麼不同或獨特之處？

So I guess, consolidated question, the short answer is no.

所以我想，對於合併後的問題，簡短的回答是否定的。

Just keep in mind, airlines come out with a lot of commentary.

請記住，航空公司會發表很多評論。

We are different from airlines and even different from hotels.

我們和航空公司不同，甚至和飯店也不同。

We don't rely on business. business travel is not part of our portfolio.

我們不依賴商業。商務旅行不屬於我們的業務範圍。

So it is about the consumer.

所以這跟消費者有關。

And good times and bad times, people take vacations.

無論是順境還是逆境，人們都會休假。

The unemployment rate in this country and the developed countries that we really source from are fantastically low.

這個國家以及我們真正來源的已開發國家的失業率都非常低。

So does it mean that people want to think hard about how they spend their vacation dollar?

那麼，這是否意味著人們需要認真思考如何花掉他們的假期費用？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Is it more important when times are stressful that they get away and take a vacation?

當他們感到壓力很大的時候，離開家去度假是否更重要？

Does it mean more to them?

這對他們來說更有意義嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

And I think we've learned that, since the turn of this decade, how much importance people place on it.

我想我們已經了解到，自本世紀初以來，人們對此有多麼重視。

So I think we are resilient, and we'll continue to work hard to deliver.

所以我認為我們具有韌性，我們會繼續努力實現目標。

So since you say it was one question, thank you for doing what I asked.

所以既然你說這是一個問題，謝謝你照我要求的方式去做。

I think we'll end it there.

我想我們就到此為止了。

So thanks, everybody, and talk to you next quarter.

所以謝謝大家，我們下個季度再聊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

現在您可以斷開您的線路。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。