思科 (CSCO) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Fourth Quarter Fiscal and Year 2019 Financial Results Conference Call.

歡迎參加思科 2019 財年第四季度和年度財務業績電話會議。

At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded.

應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

如有異議，可斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始了。

Thanks, Michelle.

謝謝，米歇爾。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎大家參加思科 2019 財年第四季度季度收益電話會議。

This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chairman and CEO; and Kelly Kramer, our CFO.

我是投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Chuck Robbins 也加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Kelly Kramer。

By now you should have seen our earnings press release.

到現在為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。

A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call.

電話會議後，將在我們網站的“投資者關係”部分提供相應的帶幻燈片的網絡廣播，包括補充信息。

Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website.

損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節信息、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務信息也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的“財務信息”部分找到。

Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results and will discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise.

在整個電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並將討論收入方面的產品結果以及產品訂單方面的地理和客戶結果。

All comparisons made throughout this call will be made on a year-over-year basis.

在本次電話會議中進行的所有比較都將按年進行。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the first quarter of fiscal 2020.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2020 財年第一季度提供的指引。

They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

它們受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性的影響，特別是關於 10-K 和 10-Q 表格的最新報告，這些報告確定了可能導致實際結果與實際結果大不相同的重要風險因素包含在前瞻性陳述中的內容。

With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details.

關於指南，另請參閱本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細信息。

Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

除非通過明確的公開披露，否則思科不會在本季度對其財務指導發表評論。

In Q2, on October 28, we completed the sale of our SPVSS business and, accordingly, had no revenue or expense from that business in Q4 fiscal 2019.

在第二季度，即 10 月 28 日，我們完成了 SPVSS 業務的出售，因此，在 2019 財年第四季度該業務沒有收入或支出。

As such, all of the revenue, non-GAAP and product orders information we will be discussing today is normalized to exclude the SPVSS business from our historical results.

因此，我們今天將討論的所有收入、非 GAAP 和產品訂單信息都經過標準化處理，以將 SPVSS 業務排除在我們的歷史業績之外。

We have provided historical financial information for the SPVSS business in the slides that accompany this call and on our website to help understand these impacts.

我們在本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和我們的網站上提供了 SPVSS 業務的歷史財務信息，以幫助了解這些影響。

This guidance we provided during our Q3 earnings call and today's call has been normalized in the same way.

我們在第三季度財報電話會議和今天的電話會議中提供的指導已經以同樣的方式標準化。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Chuck.

有了這個，我現在把它交給查克。

Thank you, Marilyn, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝瑪麗蓮，大家下午好。

Our Q4 results marked a strong end to a great year.

我們第四季度的業績標誌著一個偉大的一年的強勁結束。

Our teams executed well through a very dynamic environment.

我們的團隊在充滿活力的環境中表現出色。

We delivered significant innovation across our entire portfolio, and we continued our business model transition with software subscriptions now at 70% of total software revenue, up 12 points year-over-year.

我們在整個產品組合中實現了重大創新，並繼續我們的業務模式轉型，軟件訂閱現在佔軟件總收入的 70%，同比增長 12 個百分點。

We delivered strong revenue and double-digit non-GAAP earnings per share growth for the full year and in the fourth quarter.

我們在全年和第四季度實現了強勁的收入和兩位數的非 GAAP 每股收益增長。

We also continued to generate healthy margins, cash flow and returns for our shareholders.

我們還繼續為股東創造可觀的利潤率、現金流和回報。

Our technology is fundamentally redefining IT architectures to help our customers manage the complexities of a multicloud world and transform for the future.

我們的技術正在從根本上重新定義 IT 架構，以幫助我們的客戶管理多雲世界的複雜性並為未來進行轉型。

Let me cover some recent highlights across our portfolio.

讓我介紹一下我們投資組合中的一些近期亮點。

Starting with Infrastructure Platforms.

從基礎設施平台開始。

We continue to see strong performance with broad-based growth across the majority of our portfolio led by our next-generation enterprise networking solutions.

在我們的下一代企業網絡解決方案的引領下，我們的大部分產品組合繼續保持強勁的表現和廣泛的增長。

Over the last 2 years, we have built the foundation for intent-based networking by rearchitecting our entire networking portfolio to deliver new capabilities through our automation platform.

在過去的 2 年裡，我們通過重新構建我們的整個網絡產品組合以通過我們的自動化平台提供新功能，為基於意圖的網絡奠定了基礎。

At Cisco Live!, we launched several new technology innovations across networking domains to more effectively secure and manage users and applications across the entire enterprise, from campus networks, in wide area networks to data centers and the IoT Edge.

在 Cisco Live!，我們推出了多項跨網絡領域的新技術創新，以更有效地保護和管理整個企業的用戶和應用程序，從園區網絡、廣域網到數據中心和 IoT Edge。

We also added several AI and ML software capabilities to improve network management through automation.

我們還添加了幾種人工智能和機器學習軟件功能，以通過自動化改進網絡管理。

A great example of this is our new AI network analytics capability, which delivers greater visibility and insights across the entire enterprise network.

一個很好的例子是我們新的 AI 網絡分析功能，它可以在整個企業網絡中提供更高的可見性和洞察力。

In data center, we continue to execute well as we help enable our customers to securely access their applications and their data anywhere from private to public cloud environments as well as at the Edge.

在數據中心，我們繼續表現出色，因為我們幫助客戶在從私有云到公共雲環境以及邊緣的任何地方安全地訪問他們的應用程序和數據。

We are innovating across every facet of our portfolio, integrating AI, automation, security and assurance into our Nexus switching platforms and our 400-gig offerings.

我們正在我們產品組合的各個方面進行創新，將人工智能、自動化、安全和保證集成到我們的 Nexus 交換平台和我們的 400 兆產品中。

This quarter, we delivered data center network insights, providing critical analytics and proactive network management capabilities through automation to increase our customers' ability to troubleshoot and remediate their environments.

本季度，我們提供了數據中心網絡洞察，通過自動化提供關鍵分析和主動網絡管理功能，以提高客戶排除故障和修復其環境的能力。

We also continue to invest in silicon and optics to build the next-generation Internet for our customers.

我們還繼續投資矽和光學，為我們的客戶構建下一代互聯網。

The recently announced intent to acquire Acacia is a good example of how we are enhancing our silicon and optics portfolio to enable web-scale service provider and data center operator customers to meet today's fast-growing consumer demand for data.

最近宣布的收購 Acacia 的意向很好地說明了我們如何增強我們的矽和光學產品組合，以使網絡規模的服務提供商和數據中心運營商客戶能夠滿足當今消費者對數據快速增長的需求。

Now turning to Security, which had an incredible year.

現在轉向安全，它度過了令人難以置信的一年。

Cybersecurity continues to be the top priority for our customers, driving another consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

網絡安全仍然是我們客戶的首要任務，推動了又一個連續季度的兩位數增長。

As the industry leader in networking and cybersecurity, we are investing in and extending our subscription-based security innovations across all networking domains in today's Zero Trust environment.

作為網絡和網絡安全領域的行業領導者，我們正在當今零信任環境中的所有網絡領域投資和擴展我們基於訂閱的安全創新。

By extending our ability to detect threats across public clouds and by protecting the campus, branch, WAN and data center against threats, we are the only company providing an integrated end-to-end security architecture across multicloud environments.

通過擴展我們跨公共雲檢測威脅的能力並保護園區、分支機構、WAN 和數據中心免受威脅，我們是唯一一家提供跨多雲環境的集成端到端安全架構的公司。

Throughout the year, we've expanded our family of cloud security solutions to help secure identity, end points and the network, which has led to accelerating customer adoption as they move or expand to the cloud.

全年，我們擴展了我們的雲安全解決方案系列，以幫助保護身份、端點和網絡，這導致客戶在遷移或擴展到雲時加速採用。

We're also extending this protection from the network to branch offices to roaming users with flexible solutions designed to secure our customers' SD-WAN environments.

我們還通過旨在保護客戶 SD-WAN 環境的靈活解決方案，將這種保護從網絡擴展到分支機構再到漫遊用戶。

During the quarter, we were excited to announce the availability of a full web proxy capability on our global SaaS platform, Umbrella, to complement our on-premise appliances.

在本季度，我們很高興地宣佈在我們的全球 SaaS 平台 Umbrella 上提供完整的 Web 代理功能，以補充我們的內部部署設備。

Trust plays a critical role as customers access their networking applications; and identity plays a critical role in delivering a secure, consistent experience no matter how, when or where they connect.

當客戶訪問他們的網絡應用程序時，信任起著至關重要的作用；身份在提供安全、一致的體驗方面起著至關重要的作用，無論他們以何種方式、何時何地連接。

This market dynamic was central to our Duo Security acquisition, and we continue to see customer momentum, reflecting the power of Duo's differentiated, market-leading SaaS platform.

這種市場動態是我們收購 Duo Security 的核心，我們繼續看到客戶的增長勢頭，反映出 Duo 差異化、市場領先的 SaaS 平台的力量。

Moving to applications.

轉向應用程序。

Our collaboration business continues to perform well as we execute against our strategy to accelerate the future of work, communications and collaboration.

我們的協作業務繼續表現良好，因為我們執行我們的戰略以加速工作、通信和協作的未來。

Earlier this year, we shared our vision for cognitive collaboration, which we believe is quickly becoming the foundation to deliver massively personalized experiences and transform how we work.

今年早些時候，我們分享了我們對認知協作的願景，我們相信它正在迅速成為提供大規模個性化體驗和改變我們工作方式的基礎。

We are leading the market in integrating AI and ML into our enterprise collaboration portfolio, bringing intelligence and context to help our customers work smarter and increase productivity.

我們在將 AI 和 ML 集成到我們的企業協作產品組合方面處於市場領先地位，帶來智能和上下文來幫助我們的客戶更智能地工作並提高生產力。

Through our AI-driven innovations like people insights, facial recognition and WebEx Assistant, we're driving expanded collaboration experiences on any device integrated with our customers' business process workflows.

通過我們的 AI 驅動創新，如人員洞察、面部識別和 WebEx 助手，我們正在與客戶的業務流程工作流程集成的任何設備上推動擴展協作體驗。

Building on these cognitive innovations, we announced our intent to acquire Voicea, a market-leading provider of voice-based artificial intelligence solutions.

基於這些認知創新，我們宣布了收購市場領先的基於語音的人工智能解決方案提供商 Voicea 的意向。

With Voicea's technology, we will enhance our entire WebEx portfolio with a powerful transcription service combining AI and automated speech recognition to enable more actionable meetings, improved productivity and enhanced experiences.

借助 Voicea 的技術，我們將通過結合人工智能和自動語音識別的強大轉錄服務來增強我們的整個 WebEx 產品組合，以實現更具操作性的會議、提高生產力和增強體驗。

We also achieved another outstanding quarter of growth with our AppDynamics, demonstrating rapid customer adoption of our differentiated end-to-end visibility and analytics platform from the end user to the network to the application.

我們還通過 AppDynamics 實現了又一個出色的季度增長，表明客戶迅速採用我們差異化的端到端可見性和分析平台，從最終用戶到網絡再到應用程序。

In summary, we had a great quarter and finish to fiscal year 2019, and I'm proud of what our teams have accomplished.

總而言之，我們在 2019 財年度過了一個偉大的季度，我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到自豪。

We are executing well in a time of uncertainty, delivering differentiated innovation across our portfolio and extending our market leadership in enterprise networking applications and security.

我們在不確定的時期表現良好，在我們的產品組合中提供差異化創新，並擴大我們在企業網絡應用程序和安全方面的市場領導地位。

Our performance reflects our relevance as well as the ongoing value we're providing our customers as they transform for the future.

我們的業績反映了我們的相關性以及我們在客戶為未來轉型時為他們提供的持續價值。

We are as committed as ever to providing them with the right innovation to drive greater impact and success.

我們一如既往地致力於為他們提供正確的創新，以推動更大的影響和成功。

As I look ahead, I could not be more confident about our unique position in the market and the tremendous opportunity in front of us.

展望未來，我對我們在市場上的獨特地位和擺在我們面前的巨大機遇充滿信心。

Kelly, I'll now turn it over to you.

凱利，我現在把它交給你。

Thanks, Chuck.

謝謝，查克。

I'll start with a summary of our financial results for the quarter then cover the full fiscal year followed by the guidance for Q1.

我將從本季度的財務業績摘要開始，然後涵蓋整個財政年度，然後是第一季度的指導。

Q4 was a great quarter across the business.

第四季度是整個業務的一個很好的季度。

We executed well with strong revenue growth, margins, net income and EPS.

我們在收入增長、利潤率、淨收入和每股收益方面表現良好。

Total revenue was $13.4 billion, up 6%.

總收入為 134 億美元，增長 6%。

Our non-GAAP operating margin rate was 32.6%, up 1.4 points.

我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 32.6%，上升 1.4 個百分點。

Non-GAAP net income was $3.6 billion, up 9%.

非 GAAP 淨收入為 36 億美元，增長 9%。

And non-GAAP EPS was $0.83, up 19%.

非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.83 美元，增長 19%。

Let me provide some more detail on our Q4 revenue.

讓我提供更多關於我們第四季度收入的細節。

Total product revenue was up 7% to $10.1 billion.

產品總收入增長 7% 至 101 億美元。

Infrastructure Platforms grew 6%.

基礎設施平台增長 6%。

All of the businesses were up with the exception of routing.

除路由外，所有業務均正常運行。

Switching had a great quarter with double-digit growth driven by both campus and data center with the continued ramp of the Cat 9K and strength of the Nexus 9K.

隨著 Cat 9K 的持續增長和 Nexus 9K 的實力，交換機在園區和數據中心的推動下取得了兩位數的增長。

We saw solid growth in wireless across the portfolio.

我們看到整個產品組合的無線業務穩步增長。

Data center was up with growth in both HyperFlex and servers.

數據中心隨著 HyperFlex 和服務器的增長而增長。

Routing declined due to weakness in service provider.

由於服務提供商的疲軟，路由下降。

Applications was up 11% with Collaboration, AppDynamics and IoT software all up double digits.

應用程序增長了 11%，其中 Collaboration、AppDynamics 和 IoT 軟件均增長了兩位數。

Security was up 14% with strong performance in identity and access, advanced threat, unified threat and web security.

安全性增長了 14%，在身份和訪問、高級威脅、統一威脅和 Web 安全方面表現強勁。

Service revenue was up 4% driven by software and solution support.

在軟件和解決方案支持的推動下，服務收入增長了 4%。

We continue to transform our business, delivering more software offerings and driving more subscriptions.

我們繼續轉變我們的業務，提供更多的軟件產品並推動更多的訂閱。

Software subscriptions were 70% of total software revenue, up 12 points year-over-year.

軟件訂閱佔軟件總收入的 70%，同比增長 12 個百分點。

When we look at the impact of acquisitions on our Q4 results year-over-year, there was a 60 basis point positive impact on revenue.

當我們查看收購對我們第四季度業績的同比影響時，對收入產生了 60 個基點的積極影響。

In terms of orders in Q4, total product orders growth was flat.

四季度訂單方面，產品訂單總量增速持平。

Looking at our geographies, Americas was up 1%, EMEA was up 4% and APJC was down 8%.

從我們的地理位置來看，美洲上漲了 1%，歐洲、中東和非洲上漲了 4%，亞太及日本地區下跌了 8%。

Total emerging markets was down 8% with the BRICS plus Mexico down 20%.

新興市場總量下降了 8%，其中金磚國家和墨西哥下降了 20%。

In our customer segments, enterprise was down 2%, commercial grew 7%, public sector was up 13% and service provider was down 21%.

在我們的客戶群中，企業下降了 2%，商業增長了 7%，公共部門增長了 13%，服務提供商下降了 21%。

Remaining performance obligations, or RPO, at the end of Q4 was $25.3 billion.

第四季度末的剩餘履約義務或 RPO 為 253 億美元。

RPO is our deferred revenue plus unbilled deferred and represents total committed, noncancelable future revenue.

RPO 是我們的遞延收入加上未開票的遞延收入，代表承諾的、不可取消的未來總收入。

From a non-GAAP profitability perspective, total Q4 gross margin was 65.5%, up 2.3 points.

從非美國通用會計準則盈利能力的角度來看，第四季度總毛利率為 65.5%，上升 2.3 個百分點。

Product gross margin was 64.7%, up 2.8 points.

產品毛利率為64.7%，上升2.8個百分點。

And service gross margin was 67.9%, up 0.7 points.

服務毛利率為67.9%，上升0.7個百分點。

In terms of the bottom line from a GAAP perspective, Q4 net income was $2.2 billion, and EPS was $0.51.

從 GAAP 的角度來看，第四季度淨收入為 22 億美元，每股收益為 0.51 美元。

The GAAP results include a charge of approximately $900 million, which is a reversal of a tax benefit recorded in Q4 fiscal year '18, which relates to new U.S. treasury regulations issued during the quarter related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

GAAP 結果包括約 9 億美元的費用，這是 18 財年第四季度記錄的稅收優惠的逆轉，這與本季度發布的與《減稅和就業法》相關的美國財政部新法規有關。

We ended Q4 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $33.4 billion.

第四季度末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 334 億美元。

Operating cash flow was $3.9 billion, down 4%.

經營現金流為 39 億美元，下降 4%。

From a capital allocation perspective, we returned $6 billion to shareholders during the quarter that was comprised of $4.5 billion of share repurchases and $1.5 billion for our quarterly dividend.

從資本配置的角度來看，我們在本季度向股東返還了 60 億美元，其中包括 45 億美元的股票回購和 15 億美元的季度股息。

In our Q2 fiscal '18 earnings call, we said we would return $31 billion through share repurchases over the following 18 to 24 months.

在我們的 18 財年第二季度財報電話會議上，我們表示我們將在接下來的 18 到 24 個月內通過股票回購返還 310 億美元。

As of Q4 fiscal '19, we completed that commitment with share repurchases of $32.6 billion.

截至 19 財年第四季度，我們完成了該承諾，回購了 326 億美元的股票。

Going forward, we will return to our capital allocation strategy of returning a minimum of 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders annually through share repurchases and dividends.

展望未來，我們將回歸我們的資本配置策略，即每年通過股票回購和派息向股東返還至少 50% 的自由現金流。

We continue to invest organically and inorganically in our innovation pipeline.

我們繼續對我們的創新管道進行有機和無機投資。

During Q4, we announced our intent to acquire Acacia, an existing supplier that is focused on optical interconnect technologies.

在第四季度，我們宣布了收購專注於光互連技術的現有供應商 Acacia 的意向。

This move is consistent with our strategy of increasing investment in innovation and R&D for our growth areas.

此舉符合我們增加對增長領域創新和研發投資的戰略。

I'll now cover the full fiscal year results.

我現在將介紹整個財政年度的結果。

We delivered strong revenue growth, margins, net income, EPS and operating cash flow.

我們實現了強勁的收入增長、利潤率、淨收入、每股收益和經營現金流。

Revenue was $51.7 billion, up 7%.

收入為 517 億美元，增長 7%。

Total non-GAAP gross margin was 64.6%, up 0.3 points.

非美國通用會計準則總毛利率為 64.6%，上升 0.3 個百分點。

And our non-GAAP operating margin rate was 32.3%, up 0.7 points.

我們的非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 32.3%，上升 0.7 個百分點。

From a bottom line perspective, non-GAAP net income was $13.8 billion, up 9%.

從底線來看，非美國通用會計準則淨收入為 138 億美元，增長 9%。

And non-GAAP EPS was $3.10, up 20%.

非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.10 美元，增長 20%。

GAAP net income was $11.6 billion, and GAAP EPS was $2.61.

GAAP 淨收入為 116 億美元，GAAP 每股收益為 2.61 美元。

We delivered operating cash flow of $15.8 billion, up 16%.

我們交付了 158 億美元的運營現金流，增長了 16%。

Normalized for the tax payments related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in each fiscal year and the cash received in Q1 fiscal '19 related to the legal settlement with Arista, operating cash flow was up 8%.

將每個財政年度與《減稅和就業法》相關的納稅以及 19 財年第一季度與 Arista 的法律和解相關的現金收入標準化後，運營現金流增長了 8%。

To summarize, we had a strong Q4 and fiscal year.

總而言之，我們有一個強勁的第四季度和財政年度。

We executed well with strong top line growth and profitability, and we're seeing the returns in the investments we're making in innovation and driving the shift to more software and subscriptions, delivering long-term growth and shareholder value.

我們在強勁的收入增長和盈利能力方面表現出色，我們看到了我們在創新和推動向更多軟件和訂閱的轉變方面所做的投資的回報，實現了長期增長和股東價值。

Let me reiterate our guidance for the first quarter of fiscal '20.

讓我重申我們對 20 財年第一季度的指導。

This guidance includes the type of forward-looking information that Marilyn referred to earlier.

本指南包括 Marilyn 之前提到的前瞻性信息類型。

Note that we have normalized our first quarter guidance to exclude the SPVSS business for Q1 fiscal '19, which we divested on October 28, 2018.

請注意，我們已將第一季度指導規範化，以排除我們於 2018 年 10 月 28 日剝離的 19 財年第一季度的 SPVSS 業務。

We have provided historical financial information for the SPVSS business in the slides that accompany this call.

我們在本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片中提供了 SPVSS 業務的歷史財務信息。

We expect revenue growth in the range of 0% to 2% year-over-year.

我們預計收入同比增長 0% 至 2%。

We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin rate to be in the range of 64% to 65%.

我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將在 64% 至 65% 的範圍內。

The non-GAAP operating margin rate is expected to be in the range of 32% to 33%, and non-GAAP tax provision rate is expected to be 20%.

非 GAAP 營業利潤率預計在 32% 至 33% 之間，非 GAAP 稅收撥備率預計為 20%。

The 1% increase in tax rate over fiscal '19 is primarily due to a forecasted decrease in tax benefits from foreign income.

與 19 財年相比稅率增加 1% 主要是由於預計來自國外收入的稅收優惠減少。

Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.80 to $0.82.

非 GAAP 每股收益預計在 0.80 美元至 0.82 美元之間。

I'll turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

我會把它轉回 Marilyn，這樣我們就可以進入問答環節。

Thanks, Kelly.

謝謝，凱利。

Michelle, let's go ahead and open the line for questions.

米歇爾，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Rod Hall from Goldman Sachs.

來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

I guess I'm going to ask the obvious one and then maybe -- perhaps a little bit of detailed color, if I can get it.

我想我會問明顯的問題，然後也許——如果我能得到的話，也許會問一些詳細的顏色。

The guidance says weaker than, I think, we had anticipated.

我認為，指導意見比我們預期的要弱。

We know it's a tough macro environment.

我們知道這是一個艱難的宏觀環境。

So just hoping, Chuck, that you would maybe comment on that.

所以只是希望，查克，你可能會對此發表評論。

And maybe juxtapose the change in trend in enterprise orders, which did weaken quite a bit with commercial, which seems to be holding up fine and kind of why that is going on.

也許將企業訂單趨勢的變化與商業訂單的趨勢變化並列，商業訂單確實減弱了很多，而商業訂單似乎表現良好，這就是為什麼會這樣。

And then Kelly, if you could comment on backlog as well.

然後是 Kelly，如果你也可以對積壓發表評論。

I know you guys usually give it in the K, so it'd be great to get that number as well.

我知道你們通常在 K 中給出它，所以也能得到那個數字會很棒。

Rod, thanks for the question.

羅德，謝謝你的提問。

So let me start by saying, first of all, the strategy and the work that we've done on our portfolio and the engagement with our customers is absolutely going in the right direction.

所以讓我首先說，首先，我們在投資組合上所做的戰略和工作以及與客戶的接觸絕對是在朝著正確的方向發展。

And we continue to make progress, and the strategy is working.

我們繼續取得進展，該戰略正在奏效。

So we're quite happy with what our teams have accomplished and where we are right now in that space.

因此，我們對我們的團隊所取得的成就以及我們目前在該領域所處的位置感到非常滿意。

There's a couple of things that we saw in the quarter, and I'll outline these and I'll answer, Rod, your question about the enterprise.

我們在本季度看到了幾件事，我將概述這些，然後我會回答羅德，你關於企業的問題。

First is we had continued challenges in service provider, and I'll double click on that in just a moment, as you saw in the order growth that Kelly talked about.

首先是我們在服務提供商方面持續面臨挑戰，我稍後會雙擊它，正如你在凱利談到的訂單增長中看到的那樣。

And then we did see in July some slight early indications of some macro shifts that we didn't see in the prior quarter.

然後我們在 7 月份確實看到了一些我們在上一季度沒有看到的一些宏觀變化的早期跡象。

So those are the 2 things that happened.

這就是發生的兩件事。

Let me double click on service provider just a bit.

讓我雙擊服務提供商。

The Americas was generally the same from an order perspective from the prior quarter, so no real shift, positive or negative.

從訂單的角度來看，美洲與上一季度基本相同，因此沒有真正的轉變，無論是積極的還是消極的。

Europe was actually positive in the SP space.

歐洲在 SP 領域實際上是積極的。

And Asia, we saw continued weakening in our China service provider business.

在亞洲，我們看到中國服務提供商業務持續疲軟。

And we had 2 massive build-outs in India a year ago that just didn't replicate this year with the 2 major players there.

一年前，我們在印度進行了 2 次大規模擴建，但今年沒有與那裡的 2 家主要參與者一起復制。

That's the net of the service provider situation.

這是服務提供商情況的淨值。

It's not more complicated than that.

沒有比這更複雜的了。

If you look at our overall business, our orders outside of service provider grew mid-single digits.

如果你看看我們的整體業務，我們在服務提供商之外的訂單增長了中個位數。

So we feel good in this environment about the rest of the portfolio and the work that we're doing with those customers.

因此，在這種環境下，我們對投資組合的其餘部分以及我們與這些客戶所做的工作感覺良好。

As it relates to commercial enterprise and public sector, and I'm going to probably give you a little more granularity than normal just so you understand what we believe went on, you can see that the portfolio that is being sold into all 3 of those segments is obviously being well received.

由於它涉及商業企業和公共部門，我可能會給你比平時更詳細的信息，以便你了解我們相信發生了什麼，你可以看到正在出售的投資組合全部 3細分市場顯然很受歡迎。

Our public sector business on a global basis was up 13%, so we continue to see success.

我們在全球範圍內的公共部門業務增長了 13%，因此我們繼續取得成功。

And as you mentioned, Rod, global commercial was up 7%.

正如你提到的，Rod，全球商業廣告增長了 7%。

The enterprise business was really -- we saw weakness in China, which was -- contributed to it.

企業業務確實——我們看到了中國的弱點，這是——促成了它。

We saw some weakness in the U.K. in enterprise.

我們看到英國在企業方面存在一些弱點。

And then candidly, in the U.S., as much as I don't want to use compares for an excuse, we had 2 major software deals a year ago that were tough to compare against.

然後坦率地說，在美國，儘管我不想以比較為藉口，但一年前我們有 2 項主要的軟件交易很難與之比較。

So that's really it.

就是這樣。

The rest of the business and everything that we see is still very positive, and we feel good about where we are.

其餘的業務和我們看到的一切仍然非常積極，我們對自己的處境感到滿意。

Yes.

是的。

And Rod, on your backlog question.

羅德，關於你的積壓問題。

So we have -- since we adopted ASC 606, we've been disclosing our RPO, which is a more meaningful metric of our future revenue because, again, the problem with our backlog, it didn't include our subscription businesses.

所以我們 - 自從我們採用 ASC 606 以來，我們一直在披露我們的 RPO，這是我們未來收入的一個更有意義的指標，因為我們積壓的問題再次出現，它不包括我們的訂閱業務。

So it didn't include anything on Collaboration or Security.

所以它不包括任何關於協作或安全的內容。

So RPO has everything.

所以 RPO 擁有一切。

It has the deferred revenue, the unbilled deferred and any committed future revenue.

它有遞延收入、未開票的遞延收入和任何承諾的未來收入。

And like we've disclosed in our Qs, we expect -- of that $25.3 billion, we expect about 56% of that to be recognized over the next 12 months.

就像我們在 Qs 中披露的那樣，我們預計 - 在這 253 億美元中，我們預計其中約 56% 將在未來 12 個月內得到確認。

Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

保羅西爾弗斯坦和考恩。

Just to follow up on Rod's question, Chuck, a clarification.

只是為了跟進 Rod 的問題，Chuck，澄清一下。

I thought China was now down or have been down for a while still well less than 3% of revenue.

我認為中國現在或已經下降了一段時間，但仍遠低於收入的 3%。

And I guess it's not 0, so you still have exposure.

而且我猜它不是 0，所以你仍然有曝光。

But I'm surprised it impacted you to the extent you suggested.

但我很驚訝它對你的影響達到了你所建議的程度。

And then I want to ask Kelly about the pricing environment.

然後我想問凱利關於定價環境的問題。

I assume there's been a change in what we should expect for margins throughout the year.

我假設我們對全年利潤率的預期發生了變化。

I assume they're going up on both the gross and the operating line given DRAM and given the shift to -- ongoing shift to software while in a benign pricing environment.

我假設他們在考慮到 DRAM 的毛線和運營線上都在上升，並考慮到在良性定價環境中不斷轉向軟件。

But if you could comment on that.

但如果你能對此發表評論。

Yes.

是的。

Let me just comment on the China situation.

我簡單評論一下中國的情況。

I mean you're right.

我的意思是你是對的。

It's down below 3%.

它下降到 3% 以下。

It's a small part of our business.

這是我們業務的一小部分。

But obviously, when it falls very dramatically, it can still have some impact because it is greater than 0. But long term, it's not a concern that I worry about much at this point.

但很明顯，當它大幅下降時，它仍然會產生一些影響，因為它大於 0。但從長遠來看，這不是我目前非常擔心的問題。

And so that's really the extent of what we saw there.

這就是我們在那裡看到的真正程度。

I mean the China reduction contributed to a point of the issue in all of enterprise for us, so it was that significant.

我的意思是，中國的減少對我們所有企業的問題都起到了推動作用，所以它非常重要。

And we definitely saw significant impact on our business in China as it relates to what's going on with trade war right now.

我們確實看到了對我們在中國的業務的重大影響，因為它與目前正在發生的貿易戰有關。

Yes.

是的。

And then Paul, on your margin question.

然後是 Paul，關於保證金問題。

So yes, pricing, the environment stays good.

所以是的，定價，環境保持良好。

Actually, we had a very good quarter on pricing.

實際上，我們在定價方面有一個非常好的季度。

It was less than 1 point that you'll see when we give you the Q. So that's been very good.

當我們給你 Q 時，你會看到不到 1 分。所以這非常好。

And again, you can see we are benefiting in our gross margins and OMs from the tailwind from DRAM as we expected.

再一次，你可以看到我們正從 DRAM 的順風中受益，正如我們預期的那樣。

And you're seeing that in not only the results but also as we've been guiding on the margin.

你不僅在結果中看到了這一點，而且在我們一直在邊際上的指導中也看到了這一點。

Tejas Venkatesh from UBS.

來自瑞銀的 Tejas Venkatesh。

You obviously give us year-over-year order growth number every quarter, but I wonder if you could give us a sense of what the sequentials look like versus historical seasonality.

您顯然每個季度都會給我們提供同比訂單增長數字，但我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解順序與歷史季節性的對比情況。

If I have my math right, sequential order growth looks somewhat in line with seasonality, but your revenue guide is a tad below where you've grown sequentially in recent years.

如果我的數學沒問題的話，連續的訂單增長看起來有點符合季節性，但你的收入指南略低於你近年來連續增長的水平。

So I just want to confirm that's right.

所以我只想確認這是正確的。

And then secondly, you're coming off a strong year of 7% revenue growth.

其次，你將迎來 7% 的收入增長強勁的一年。

I know you don't guide for the year, but investor expectations were somewhat high, and I wonder if you could comment even qualitatively on how to think about full year revenue growth.

我知道你沒有為這一年提供指導，但投資者的期望有些高，我想知道你是否可以就如何考慮全年收入增長做出定性評論。

Tejas, so yes, you're right on our sequentials on orders.

Tejas，所以是的，你對我們的訂單順序是正確的。

I mean we've had this phenomena -- it's not a phenomena, but our Q4 always has a double-digit growth, and Q4 is our largest quarter from a dollar perspective on orders growth for us.

我的意思是我們有過這種現象——這不是一種現象，但我們的第四季度總是有兩位數的增長，從訂單增長的美元角度來看，第四季度是我們最大的季度。

So that happens.

所以會發生這種情況。

And again, in Q1, it's a double-digit down.

同樣，在第一季度，它下降了兩位數。

So this -- the sequential isn't a change from historical, and again, the year-over-year takes into account the kind of the phenomenon we're seeing now.

所以這個 - 順序不是歷史的變化，而且，年復一年考慮了我們現在看到的那種現象。

In terms of the long-term guide, again, we don't give more than 1 quarter.

同樣，就長期指南而言，我們給出的時間不超過 1 個季度。

I would say, to Chuck's earlier point, in terms of how we feel about the portfolio and the margins and the update, we feel good about that.

我想說，對於查克之前的觀點，就我們對投資組合、利潤率和更新的看法而言，我們對此感覺很好。

The macro and the certain segment issues like in SP, I mean I think that -- I don't foresee that -- I'm not planning on that changing in the near term.

宏觀和某些細分市場問題，比如 SP，我的意思是我認為——我沒有預見到——我不打算在短期內改變這種情況。

Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的 Sami Badri。

I was hoping you could kind of just give us an update on the campus switching refresh and then perhaps maybe your view on where we'll be next year as you see the campus switching cycle playing out and maybe even potentially more consistent data center switching deployments play out, especially since we're going through some transitions in the industry.

我希望您能向我們介紹一下校園交換更新的最新情況，然後也許您可以看到校園交換週期結束，甚至可能更一致的數據中心交換部署，您對我們明年的看法發揮作用，特別是因為我們正在經歷行業的一些轉變。

So I guess what I really just want to understand is where we are in the cycle.

所以我想我真正只想了解的是我們在周期中所處的位置。

Where -- are we in like the fifth, maybe sixth, maybe even first or second inning the way you see it?

在哪裡——我們是在第五局，也許是第六局，甚至可能是你看到的第一局或第二局？

And then maybe the equivalent of where we see that for data center switching for your customers.

然後可能相當於我們為您的客戶看到的數據中心交換。

Sami, thanks.

薩米，謝謝。

It's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

So in the last 120 to 180 days, I mean we completed the full refresh of our portfolio across switching, routing and wireless in the enterprise, and we're now in a position where all of those have mandatory subscriptions.

所以在過去的 120 到 180 天裡，我的意思是我們完成了對企業中交換、路由和無線產品組合的全面更新，我們現在處於所有這些都有強制訂閱的位置。

So we've made that transition from a product development perspective, and now those are all out in the marketplace with our customers.

所以我們已經從產品開發的角度進行了這種轉變，現在這些都與我們的客戶一起出現在市場上。

On the Catalyst 9000, Q4 was the -- we added more customers in Q4 for the Catalyst 9000 than in any quarter prior.

在 Catalyst 9000 上，第四季度是——我們在第四季度為 Catalyst 9000 增加了比之前任何一個季度都多的客戶。

So that continues to move forward favorably.

因此，這將繼續有利地向前發展。

In the campus, what I would suggest to you is that we're -- I'd say maybe we're in the second inning at this point of this transition that we see from our customers.

在校園裡，我建議你的是——我想說也許我們正處於我們從客戶那裡看到的這種轉變的第二局。

As you know, they're all rearchitecting their entire enterprise infrastructure to accommodate these traffic flows that are presented from the massive number of cloud applications that they're running.

如您所知，他們都在重新構建整個企業基礎設施，以適應這些來自他們正在運行的大量雲應用程序的流量。

And so it requires a completely different architecture, which is what this portfolio is built for.

因此，它需要一個完全不同的架構，而這正是構建此產品組合的目的。

As it relates to data center, I think that next year, you'll probably begin to see some upgrades transitions when the pure 400-gig optics are available.

由於它與數據中心有關，我認為明年，當純 400-gig 光學器件可用時，您可能會開始看到一些升級過渡。

And one of the things that we believe is a big differentiator for us is that we're extending this policy management out of the data center into the campus, from a campus into the wide area, from the wide area into the cloud security portfolio.

我們認為對我們來說最大的區別之一是我們正在將這種策略管理從數據中心擴展到校園，從校園擴展到廣域，從廣域擴展到雲安全組合。

So we think being able to enable our customers to deliver policy from the data center all the way across the campus to the branch into the cloud is a very unique differentiator for us, and we think we'll begin to see customers adopting and deploying that sometime in the next year as well.

因此，我們認為能夠使我們的客戶能夠從數據中心一直到校園到分支機構再到雲端提供策略對我們來說是一個非常獨特的差異化因素，我們認為我們將開始看到客戶採用和部署它明年的某個時候也是如此。

So that's how we see it playing out.

這就是我們如何看待它的結果。

Tal Liani from Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Tal Liani。

If you look at the growth this quarter, it's about 1%.

如果你看一下本季度的增長，大約是 1%。

And then a few quarters ago, you were...

然後幾個季度前，你是...

Tal, can you speak up just a little bit?

塔爾，你能說一點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

That's better.

那更好。

I'll pick it up.

我去撿

Here you go.

幹得好。

Now it's better.

現在好多了。

This quarter -- you're guiding for 1% growth.

本季度——你指導 1% 的增長。

A few quarters ago, you reported 8%, but you had roughly organically growing -- you were growing about 4% to 4.5%.

幾個季度前，你報告了 8%，但你的增長大致是有機增長——你增長了大約 4% 到 4.5%。

Can you take the 1% that you have now and then build on top of it all the things that you're seeing today to see what's the growth environment now that is more sustainable going forward?

你能否利用你現在擁有的 1%，然後在此基礎上構建你今天看到的所有東西，看看現在更可持續的增長環境是什麼？

I'm trying -- I have difficulties to go from 4%, 4.5% to 1% within like 3 quarters.

我正在嘗試——我很難在大約 3 個季度內從 4%、4.5% 上升到 1%。

And if it's not a major deceleration in the growth environment, what could it be?

如果這不是增長環境的重大減速，那會是什麼？

So you mentioned China.

所以你提到了中國。

What are the other things that are happening today that are unique to Q1 that are bringing the growth down so much from the levels we have seen just a few quarters ago?

今天發生的其他什麼事情是第一季度獨有的，使增長從幾個季度前的水平下降了這麼多？

Tal, I'll take a crack at it.

塔爾，我會嘗試一下的。

I mean at the end of the day, when we are guiding, it's based on what we're seeing with the orders alone, the pipeline and everything else.

我的意思是，歸根結底，當我們進行指導時，它是基於我們所看到的單獨的訂單、管道和其他一切。

And the biggest driver of the guide where it is, is the massive decline we've seen in service provider over the last 2 quarters.

該指南的最大推動力是我們在過去兩個季度中看到的服務提供商的大幅下滑。

So that is the biggest driver.

所以這是最大的驅動因素。

Again, like Chuck said, we feel good about the rest of the portfolio from an orders perspective growing in the mid-single digits.

再次，就像查克說的那樣，從訂單的角度來看，我們對其餘產品組合的增長感到滿意。

But -- China is part of it, but again, like we said, it's small in comparison.

但是——中國是其中的一部分，但正如我們所說，相比之下它還是很小的。

But SP is still a large part of the business, and that's driving this outlook that you're seeing.

但 SP 仍然是業務的很大一部分，這推動了你所看到的前景。

So what's the -- can you quantify this?

那是什麼——你能量化這個嗎？

Can you quantify what is the decline in the growth related to service providers?

您能否量化與服務提供商相關的增長下降情況？

And I think you mentioned 1 point is related to China, am I correct?

我認為你提到的 1 點與中國有關，對嗎？

What we're talking about for that is for the orders rate that we just had -- the orders rate for enterprise being down 2 points, 1 point of that at the global level was attributed just to China alone.

我們所談論的是我們剛剛獲得的訂單率——企業訂單率下降了 2 個百分點，其中全球水平的 1 個百分點僅歸因於中國。

China overall was down over 25% this quarter for us.

對我們而言，本季度中國整體下跌超過 25%。

Got it.

知道了。

And if I can just have a follow-up on China.

如果我可以對中國進行跟進。

We always felt that you're not selling much in China, that it's hard to compete in China.

我們總覺得你們在中國賣得不多，在中國很難競爭。

Where are you -- where did you have position in China?

你在哪裡——你在中國的什麼地方有職位？

I know you were selling some routers to service providers.

我知道您正在向服務提供商出售一些路由器。

But where are you selling in China?

但是你在中國哪裡賣？

And what's being impacted in China?

什麼在中國受到影響？

What are the types of products that you're selling into the Chinese market?

你們在中國市場銷售的產品類型是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Let me just give you color and then Kelly can give you some numbers.

讓我給你顏色，然后凱利可以給你一些數字。

I mean Tal, the overall Chinese market, as I said earlier, is certainly not a major play for us, but it has just dropped precipitously in light of the trade discussions.

我的意思是 Tal，整個中國市場，正如我之前所說，對我們來說當然不是一個重要的市場，但鑑於貿易討論，它剛剛急劇下降。

So it has a short-term impact.

所以它有一個短期的影響。

And where we are selling, for years, we've sold infrastructure to the large carriers in China, which has just -- it's been slowly declining, and we saw it even decline more rapidly last quarter.

在我們銷售的地方，多年來，我們向中國的大型運營商出售了基礎設施，而中國的基礎設施一直在緩慢下降，上個季度我們甚至看到它下降得更快。

And then what we've seen is in the state-owned enterprises anymore, we're just being -- we're being uninvited to bid.

然後我們看到的是國有企業，我們只是——我們不被邀請參加投標。

We're not being allowed to even participate anymore.

我們甚至不再被允許參與。

So those are the enterprises.

這些就是企業。

That's where the large impact was this past quarter.

這就是上個季度產生巨大影響的地方。

So it was just a much faster decline of what we candidly expected.

因此，這只是我們坦率預期的下降速度要快得多。

Yes.

是的。

And I would just add to that.

我只想補充一點。

So again, we talked about the big impact.

所以，我們再次談到了巨大的影響。

Enterprise had a -- it was the second largest -- was down in service provider, which is part of our overall service provider being down.

企業有一個——它是第二大——服務提供商倒閉了，這是我們整體服務提供商倒閉的一部分。

But from a product perspective, we sell everything there, from switches, routers, all the way down through security and Meraki products.

但從產品的角度來看，我們在那裡銷售所有產品，從交換機、路由器一直到安全和 Meraki 產品。

So we sell everything including cloud in China, and everything is being impacted.

所以我們在中國銷售包括雲在內的所有東西，一切都受到影響。

Jim Suva from Citigroup Investment Research.

花旗集團投資研究部的 Jim Suva。

Chuck and Kelly, you've been very clear about the softness in revenues when -- for the outlook.

查克和凱利，對於前景，你們已經非常清楚收入的疲軟。

When you think about the outlook, and a lot of it seems to be service provider, a softness, that has not been a new theme.

當您考慮前景時，其中很多似乎是服務提供商，一種軟性，這並不是一個新主題。

You've talked about it for the past several quarters.

在過去的幾個季度裡，你一直在談論它。

So where we sit today looking out, is there a lot of risk that it could get worse?

那麼，我們今天所處的位置向外看，情況是否有可能變得更糟？

Or are you kind of looking at this saying we're kind of near a bottom for service provider trends because it's been chugging along pretty low and they're starting to sweat their assets potentially?

或者你是不是在看這句話，我們有點接近服務提供商趨勢的底部，因為它一直在低位徘徊，他們可能開始耗盡他們的資產？

Or is there still some risk that you have there?

或者你那裡還有一些風險嗎？

Just kind of thinking about the service provider headwinds of could it get worse or is it you looking at it and saying, "Hey, we're calling for a bottom."

只是想一想服務提供商的逆風，它會變得更糟，還是你看著它說，“嘿，我們正在呼喚底部。”

Look, I think that when you get into this area, there's certainly pressure in the business models across all different types of service providers.

看，我認為當你進入這個領域時，所有不同類型的服務提供商的商業模式肯定會面臨壓力。

I think that if you look at the early 5G build-outs, most of the telco customers we have, particularly in Americas, they're focused on the consumer 5G trials today.

我認為，如果你看看早期的 5G 建設，我們擁有的大多數電信客戶，特別是在美洲，他們今天都專注於消費者 5G 試驗。

They're not -- I mean that is the primary focus and then getting their 5G consumer networks built out.

他們不是——我的意思是這是主要關注點，然後是建立他們的 5G 消費者網絡。

But they also don't, I would say, don't anticipate that being a huge profit driver off of the 5G transition.

但我想說，他們也不會期望這會成為 5G 過渡的巨大利潤驅動因素。

That's going to come when they build a more robust, broader 5G infrastructure where they'll deliver enterprise services.

當他們構建更強大、更廣泛的 5G 基礎設施以提供企業服務時，這種情況就會到來。

And that's going to come after they do the consumer side.

這將在他們完成消費者方面之後出現。

So it's a bit unclear when that will take place.

所以它什麼時候會發生有點不清楚。

I'd say we are not modeling and don't anticipate any significant improvement in this business in the very near term.

我想說我們不是建模，並且預計該業務在短期內不會有任何重大改善。

And we're just going to have to wait and see.

我們只需要拭目以待。

It's been a tough business for us for years.

多年來，這對我們來說一直是一項艱難的業務。

And it's now -- it obviously represents a much smaller percentage of our business than it did 5 years ago.

而現在——與 5 年前相比，它在我們業務中所佔的比例顯然要小得多。

But it clearly was a major point of weakness for us in the last quarter.

但這顯然是我們上個季度的一個主要弱點。

Do you want add anything to that, Kelly?

你想補充什麼嗎，凱利？

I think you got it.

我想你明白了。

James Faucette from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

Great.

偉大的。

I just had a couple of questions, one related to gross margins and one to the deferred revenue.

我只是有幾個問題，一個與毛利率有關，一個與遞延收入有關。

On gross margins, Kelly, it looks like even though the August -- I'm sorry, the July quarter was very good is that you're guiding for -- on both to be -- gross margins to be flat to down a little bit.

關於毛利率，凱利，看起來即使 8 月份——對不起，7 月份的季度非常好，你正在指導——兩者都是——毛利率持平或略有下降少量。

And sequentially, historically, we've seen at least some improvements.

從歷史上看，我們至少看到了一些改進。

So I'm wondering if you can help parse a little bit what's maybe going on there.

所以我想知道你是否可以幫助分析一下那裡可能發生的事情。

And my second question is deferred revenue actually looks quite good.

我的第二個問題是遞延收入實際上看起來相當不錯。

So can you give us some insight into how much of that may be ELAs or software or other aspects so we can get a little bit more color on what's driving the deferred revenue?

那麼，您能否讓我們深入了解其中有多少可能是 ELA、軟件或其他方面，以便我們能夠對推動遞延收入的因素有更多了解？

Sure.

當然。

So on the margin, yes, I mean I'd say the margins are going great.

所以在利潤率上，是的，我的意思是我會說利潤率很高。

We feel good about it.

我們對此感覺很好。

I kept the range in that 64% to 65% to take into account the cutting in of List 4 of the tariffs.

我將範圍保持在 64% 到 65% 之間，以考慮削減清單 4 的關稅。

Again, we're going to run the same play that we have for all the other tariffs, and we'll be -- again, we continue to mitigate, we continue to do everything we can do.

再一次，我們將對所有其他關稅採取同樣的行動，我們將——再一次，我們繼續減輕，我們繼續盡我們所能。

But we see that in that range, which I think is pretty good.

但我們在那個範圍內看到了這一點，我認為這非常好。

And as you look -- as that falls down through OM, we're actually doing well and have actually raised a little bit on the OM guide.

正如您所看到的那樣——隨著 OM 的下降，我們實際上做得很好，並且實際上在 OM 指南上提高了一點。

So again, I think we're able to offset the headwinds from tariffs with, again, continued benefit from the software, which leads to your point on the deferred revenue.

因此，我認為我們能夠再次從軟件中繼續受益，從而抵消關稅帶來的不利影響，這導致了你對遞延收入的看法。

Yes.

是的。

I mean again, we continue to add to deferred revenue, which again is why I think -- look at that RPO as a key metric, which has both the deferred revenue as well as unbilled deferred.

我的意思是，我們繼續增加遞延收入，這也是我認為的原因——將 RPO 視為一個關鍵指標，它既有遞延收入，也有未開票的遞延收入。

When you have month-to-month contracts, it shows the progress we've made.

當您有月度合同時，它會顯示我們取得的進展。

Just to remind you guys, when we adopted ASC 606 at the beginning of the fiscal year, we wrote off $2.8 billion from our deferred revenue balance for the new accounting rules.

提醒大家，當我們在本財年開始時採用 ASC 606 時，我們為新會計規則從遞延收入餘額中註銷了 28 億美元。

And again, you're seeing just big sequential increases.

再一次，你看到的只是大的連續增長。

Since then, as we discontinue to ramp the portfolio with like, for example, the entire enterprise portfolio, that all has subscriptions.

從那時起，當我們停止增加產品組合時，例如，整個企業產品組合都有訂閱。

So it's broad-based.

所以它的基礎很廣。

We continue to have great adoption of the new products, all the subscriptions, we have great adoption of the ELAs.

我們繼續大量採用新產品、所有訂閱，我們大量採用 ELA。

We had really strong performance of software in ELAs in Q4.

在第四季度，我們在 ELA 中的軟件表現非常出色。

So it's all going in the right direction, which is -- again, that's why we're still -- despite any macro environment, why we're still bullish on the overall strategy of the company on what we're doing on the transformation.

所以這一切都在朝著正確的方向發展，這就是——再一次，這就是為什麼我們仍然——儘管有任何宏觀環境，為什麼我們仍然看好公司在轉型方面所做的整體戰略.

Yes.

是的。

James, if I might add to that.

詹姆斯，如果我可以補充一點。

I know -- like 3 years ago, I think I made a comment on one of the earnings calls that I felt like we had figured out how we could drive our subscription business on top of networking products.

我知道——大約 3 年前，我想我在一次財報電話會議上發表了評論，我覺得我們已經弄清楚瞭如何在網絡產品之上推動我們的訂閱業務。

And now here we are, and we've got every product in our portfolio in the enterprise network now that has mandatory subscription.

現在我們到了，現在我們在企業網絡中的產品組合中的每一種產品都具有強制訂閱。

And we really started selling that 2 years ago.

我們真正在 2 年前開始銷售它。

So the first renewal window was really still a year away.

所以第一個續約窗口實際上還有一年的時間。

So the team has done a great job.

所以團隊做得很好。

That transition has been good.

這種轉變很好。

We're on track with what we told everyone in the Financial Analyst Conference, where we'd be relative to our software.

我們正在按照我們在金融分析師會議上告訴大家的內容走上正軌，在那裡我們將與我們的軟件相關聯。

And I think that's what you're seeing show up in the RPO metrics as well.

我認為這也是您在 RPO 指標中看到的。

Tim Long from Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的蒂姆·朗。

Yes.

是的。

Just to follow up on another question, if I could.

如果可以的話，只是跟進另一個問題。

Chuck, you mentioned a little bit of the weakness was also related to some macro shifts in the month of July.

查克，你提到的一點點疲軟也與 7 月份的一些宏觀變化有關。

Could you talk a little bit about that, kind of what we're seeing?

你能談談我們所看到的嗎？

Was the deals pushing out, scaling down, more competition, anything like that?

交易是否被推遲、縮減規模、競爭加劇，諸如此類？

And then you also mentioned the move to 400-gig upgrades next year.

然後你還提到了明年將升級到 400-gig。

Can you talk a little bit about how you think Cisco will fare in these data center deals as we move to 400 gig?

當我們轉向 400 gig 時，您能談談您認為思科在這些數據中心交易中的表現如何嗎？

And the strategy to take in-house and develop more optics internally, do you think that helps as early as that 400-gig transition?

以及在內部採用並在內部開發更多光學器件的策略，您認為這對 400 千兆過渡有幫助嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

So basically, we just felt a slight difference in July, I mean relative to the close rates and just -- it just wasn't as strong a finish as we would normally expect, particularly in Q4.

所以基本上，我們在 7 月份感覺略有不同，我的意思是相對於收盤價，只是 - 它沒有我們通常預期的那樣強勁，特別是在第四季度。

And I think that's what kind of set off the flags for Kelly and I. I met with 17 customers in the last 5, 6 business days, and nothing's changed about how they're thinking about the role of technology and what we do and how we're playing there.

我認為這就是我和凱利的標誌。在過去的 5、6 個工作日里，我會見了 17 位客戶，他們對技術的作用以及我們所做的事情和方式的思考方式沒有任何改變我們在那裡玩。

So we're monitoring this.

所以我們正在監視這個。

We're watching it.

我們正在看著它。

We'll see.

我們拭目以待。

Obviously, I think what we've seen in the markets in the last few weeks and what we hear from some of the other players would indicate that others have seen similar things, some a lot worse.

顯然，我認為過去幾週我們在市場上看到的情況以及我們從其他一些參與者那裡聽到的情況表明，其他人也看到了類似的情況，有些情況更糟。

And I do feel very good about our position and where we are and the level of criticality that we are playing with our customers now versus 5, 6 years ago.

我確實對我們的地位、我們所處的位置以及我們現在與客戶打交道的關鍵程度與 5、6 年前相比感到非常滿意。

And I think that -- so I feel good about that piece.

我認為 - 所以我對那篇文章感覺很好。

But that's really what we felt, and we'll just have to see how it plays out and whether we get any resolution on some of these major geopolitical issues that are sort of lingering out there.

但這確實是我們的感受，我們只需要看看它是如何發揮作用的，以及我們是否能就一些揮之不去的重大地緣政治問題達成任何解決方案。

I've said for like 18 months that I've been amazed at the resilience of the economy.

大約 18 個月以來，我一直對經濟的彈性感到驚訝。

And hopefully, it can bounce back pretty quick if we get to some -- get more clarity on some of these issues, which I think people are just -- I think they're just hedging their bets relative to some resolution on some of the stuff.

希望它可以很快反彈，如果我們得到一些 - 更清楚地了解其中一些問題，我認為人們只是 - 我認為他們只是相對於某些解決方案對沖他們的賭注東西。

And then the second question was around the 400 gig and our own -- yes, I'll tell you, we have -- I feel good about it, number one.

然後第二個問題是關於 400 場演出和我們自己的——是的，我會告訴你，我們有——我感覺很好，第一。

We're in the game.

我們在遊戲中。

We have our technology road maps mapped out.

我們制定了技術路線圖。

Our teams have made these acquisitions, which allows us to have good control of our components that go into these products.

我們的團隊進行了這些收購，這使我們能夠很好地控制這些產品中的組件。

We've talked to lots of customers, including the web-scale providers who are very supportive of where we're headed and what we're doing.

我們已經與很多客戶進行了交談，包括網絡規模的供應商，他們非常支持我們的發展方向和我們正在做的事情。

They're supportive of the strategy.

他們支持該戰略。

They like the acquisitions.

他們喜歡收購。

And so we feel good that we'll be in a good place -- in a much better position to compete in this transition than we were last time around.

因此，我們感覺很好，我們將處於一個好的位置——比我們上次在這個過渡中處於更好的競爭地位。

So I feel good about where we are.

所以我對我們所處的位置感覺很好。

Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

雷蒙·詹姆斯的西蒙·利奧波德。

I know you don't want to guide beyond the quarter, but maybe if you could help us sort of level set how to think about the year given that I think you're facing a pretty tough comparison in October, and so guiding 0% to 2% seems to set a new level.

我知道你不想在本季度之後提供指導，但也許你可以幫助我們確定如何考慮這一年，因為我認為你在 10 月份面臨著相當艱難的比較，因此指導 0%到 2% 似乎設定了一個新的水平。

But if I just apply normal seasonality through the balance of the year, it would look like the year-over-year growth rate should come back somewhat in the January through July quarters.

但是，如果我只是在今年餘下時間應用正常的季節性因素，那麼在 1 月至 7 月的季度中，同比增長率應該會有所回升。

I just want to see how we should think about, really, the full fiscal year trending.

我只想看看我們應該如何考慮整個財政年度的趨勢。

Yes.

是的。

Simon, I think the way you're looking at -- I mean again, we don't guide, and again, there's a lot of unknown out there.

西蒙，我認為你的看法——我的意思是，我們不提供指導，而且，那裡有很多未知數。

But I'll say the way you're thinking about it is probably the right way.

但我會說你考慮它的方式可能是正確的方式。

I think the way you're thinking about the second half -- certainly, you get more normalized, compares on that in the second half.

我認為你對下半場的看法——當然，與下半場相比，你變得更加正常化。

But I think the way you're looking at it is very rational.

但我認為你看待它的方式是非常理性的。

And just a quick -- do you have a metric for percent of revenue that's recurring?

快點說——你有一個衡量經常性收入百分比的指標嗎？

I think you've given it in the past.

我想你過去已經給過了。

And now with the fiscal year over, hope you maybe have that number.

現在隨著財政年度的結束，希望你可能有這個數字。

Yes.

是的。

Simon, we stopped -- when we -- we stopped this fiscal year on that when we adopted 606 because a lot of our recurring subscriptions like, for example, DNA with the Cat 9K, because of the accounting, it changes how we have to recognize it.

西蒙，我們停止了——當我們——我們在採用 606 時停止了這個財政年度，因為我們的很多經常性訂閱，例如，帶有 Cat 9K 的 DNA，因為會計，它改變了我們必須認識它。

So that's why, really, the metric that we talk about now is how much of our software revenue is subscription-based.

所以這就是為什麼，實際上，我們現在談論的指標是我們的軟件收入中有多少是基於訂閱的。

So recurring isn't that meaningful.

所以重複是沒有意義的。

Jeff Kvaal from Nomura Instinet.

來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Jeff Kvaal。

Kelly, you had mentioned a little earlier that you're taking the operating margin up a shade.

凱利，你之前提到過你正在降低營業利潤率。

I'm wondering if you could comment about how you are making the magic happen there in light of a little bit of a lower revenue trajectory than we all might have hoped for a few months ago.

我想知道你是否可以評論一下你是如何在收入軌跡低於我們幾個月前所希望的情況下在那裡實現奇蹟的。

And then just to clarify, your capital return plan sounds like it's going to be mostly about the dividends here rather than buybacks going forward.

然後澄清一下，你的資本回報計劃聽起來主要是關於這裡的股息，而不是未來的回購。

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

So on the probability, on OM, I think it's not magic, right?

所以關於概率，關於 OM，我認為這不是魔術，對吧？

It is -- we're working the gross margins hard with -- like we talked earlier.

這是——我們正在努力提高毛利率——就像我們之前談過的那樣。

And then we're also working the OpEx side hard as always as well.

然後我們也一如既往地在 OpEx 方面努力工作。

Our engineering teams do a really good job of rebalancing their portfolios and making sure they're investing in the right stuff, and we are constantly driving for efficiency.

我們的工程團隊在重新平衡他們的投資組合併確保他們投資於正確的東西方面做得非常好，而且我們一直在努力提高效率。

So it's good old-fashioned running the business and executing well despite the top line.

因此，儘管有頂線，但老式的經營業務和執行良好是很好的。

So that's how that's happening.

所以事情就是這樣發生的。

And then on the capital allocation, yes, so if you go back to when we did tax reform back in Q2 of '18 and we announced the big buyback, we had a $31 billion authorization then and we said we'd use that $31 billion.

然後關於資本配置，是的，所以如果你回到我們在 18 年第二季度進行稅制改革並宣布大規模回購的時候，我們當時獲得了 310 億美元的授權，我們說我們將使用這 310 億美元.

We did effectively use that up through the -- up till now, the 18 months.

到目前為止，我們確實有效地使用了 18 個月。

And so now since we've really gotten our balance sheet where we want it in terms of we reduced our debt, we've brought our cash balance from $74 billion back then now to $33 billion, we've reduced our debt from $35 billion down to $25 billion, we're going to get back to our normal strategy, which is being very opportunistic when our stock's down like on days like today and buying, but really balancing between both the dividends and the buyback to be at least 50% of our free cash flow.

所以現在，由於我們的資產負債表真正達到了我們減少債務的目的，我們的現金餘額從當時的 740 億美元增加到現在的 330 億美元，我們的債務從 350 億美元減少了降至 250 億美元，我們將回到我們的正常策略，當我們的股票像今天這樣的日子下跌並買入時，這是非常機會主義的，但真正平衡股息和回購至少 50%我們的自由現金流。

Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I just wanted to follow up on the guidance that you guys mentioned, the service provider weakness is kind of what's driving the weakness in the guide, although there seems to be a broader concern here from investors related to a slowdown in the enterprise spending.

我只是想跟進你們提到的指導，服務提供商的弱點是導致指南弱點的原因，儘管投資者似乎對企業支出放緩有更廣泛的擔憂。

So just wanted to get your thoughts, particularly given the change in the business towards kind of higher software subscription mix, how should we think about levers you can pull to drive growth even if enterprise spending does kind of see a slowdown next year?

所以只是想听聽你的想法，特別是考慮到業務向更高軟件訂閱組合的變化，即使明年企業支出確實有所放緩，我們應該如何考慮你可以拉動增長的槓桿？

And just a quick follow-up.

并快速跟進。

At Cisco Live!, the team had talked about a major refresh of the Collaboration portfolio.

在 Cisco Live! 上，團隊討論了協作產品組合的重大更新。

So I just wanted to see what the early response to that refresh has been.

所以我只是想看看對這次更新的早期反應是什麼。

Yes.

是的。

I think one thing that is, I think, important to look at is when we talk about enterprise spending and when many companies talk about enterprise spending, that would be, in some cases, a combination at a minimum of our enterprise and commercial business.

我認為，我認為重要的一件事是，當我們談論企業支出時，當許多公司談論企業支出時，在某些情況下，這至少是我們企業和商業業務的結合。

And in some cases, people would just include public sector in there, in that sort of a view.

在某些情況下，從那種觀點來看，人們只會將公共部門包括在內。

And that -- when you put it all together, it was actually quite healthy.

而且 - 當你把它們放在一起時，它實際上非常健康。

The orders were quite healthy.

訂單非常健康。

We just had a little bit in July of a feel that -- we just didn't close as strong as we would like.

我們只是在 7 月有一點感覺——我們只是沒有像我們希望的那樣強大。

And so we felt like there was even more that we could have done, and it just didn't feel like a normal Q4 finish.

所以我們覺得我們可以做更多的事情，而且感覺不像正常的第四季度結束。

And it felt a little bit like some of the macro issues may be manifesting themselves.

感覺有點像一些宏觀問題可能正在顯現出來。

So that's really what we saw there.

這就是我們在那裡看到的。

And then Kelly, you want to talk about the software and the...

然後 Kelly，你想談談軟件和...

Yes.

是的。

I mean again, just on the software, I think, again because more and more -- and again, even despite, like I talked about, the write-off of deferred revenue -- the adoption of 606, even despite that, the amount of revenue -- software revenue coming off the balance sheet continues just to grow as we put more on the balance sheet.

我的意思是再次，我認為，只是在軟件上，因為越來越多——而且，儘管，就像我談到的，遞延收入的註銷——606 的採用，儘管如此，數量收入——資產負債表上的軟件收入繼續增長，因為我們在資產負債表上增加了收入。

So that helps buffer when you do go through any tough macro issues.

因此，當您遇到任何棘手的宏觀問題時，這有助於緩衝。

So I think we'll continue to add to that, and it'll continue to help soften whenever there is any kind of macro slowdowns.

所以我認為我們會繼續增加這一點，並且只要出現任何宏觀經濟放緩，它就會繼續幫助軟化。

But it's helping maintain kind of the growth that we do see as well as margins.

但它有助於維持我們確實看到的某種增長以及利潤率。

Sorry, anything about on the Collaboration portfolio?

抱歉，關於 Collaboration 投資組合的任何信息？

Sorry.

對不起。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Yes.

是的。

I think that what Amy and the team have been doing is really -- they've been refreshing new elements of the portfolio with end units, end points.

我認為艾米和團隊一直在做的是——他們一直在用終端單元、端點來更新投資組合的新元素。

They've been -- they've consolidated the -- to a single-user interface.

他們已經 - 他們已經將 - 整合到一個單一用戶界面。

We've got new refreshed versions of WebEx out there.

我們已經推出了更新版的 WebEx。

They're bringing the cognitive capabilities in.

他們正在引入認知能力。

There's a lot of new technology that they've been bringing.

他們帶來了很多新技術。

So I think they're in the midst of delivering on that right now.

所以我認為他們現在正在實現這一目標。

And the results in that business would suggest that our customers are viewing it favorably because it continues to perform really well for a decent-sized business.

該業務的結果表明我們的客戶對它的看法是有利的，因為它對於一家體面規模的企業來說繼續表現得非常好。

So I just want to thank everybody for joining us today.

所以我只想感謝大家今天加入我們。

Look, we're 4 years in, and I'm really proud of what our teams have accomplished.

看，我們已經 4 年了，我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。

I mean we've come a long way in 4 years, and I don't actually judge where we are based on this quarter, I think -- or the quarterly guidance.

我的意思是我們在 4 年裡取得了長足的進步，我認為我實際上並沒有根據本季度或季度指導來判斷我們的位置。

I think that what we've built in the portfolio and the innovation and the value that we're bring to our customers is sustaining, and we'll continue to do that with our customers going forward.

我認為我們在產品組合中建立的內容以及我們為客戶帶來的創新和價值是可持續的，我們將繼續與我們的客戶一起前進。

We have a strong record of our execution.

我們有很好的執行記錄。

I have high conviction in the portfolio, and I think we're well positioned for long-term growth opportunities.

我對投資組合充滿信心，我認為我們已為長期增長機會做好準備。

So thanks all of you for spending time with us today, and thanks for the questions.

感謝大家今天花時間和我們在一起，也感謝大家提出問題。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Chuck.

謝謝，查克。

So Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal 2020 first quarter results, will be on Wednesday, November 13, 2019, at 1:30 p.m.

因此，思科將於 2019 年 11 月 13 日星期三下午 1 點 30 分召開反映我們 2020 財年第一季度業績的下一次季度收益電話會議。

Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m.

太平洋時間下午 4:30

Eastern Time.

東部時間。

Again, I'd like to remind the audience that in light of Regulation FD, Cisco's policy is not to comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

再次，我想提醒聽眾，根據 FD 條例，思科的政策是不評論其本季度的財務指導，除非通過明確的公開披露來完成。

We now plan to close the call.

我們現在計劃結束通話。

If you have any further questions, feel free to contact the Cisco Investor Relations group, and we thank you very much for joining today.

如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科投資者關係小組，我們非常感謝您今天加入。

And thank you for participating on today's conference call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (866) 463-4969.

如果您想完整收聽電話會議，可以致電 (866) 463-4969。

For participants dialing outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-1404.

對於撥打美國境外電話的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-1404。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連接。