思科 (CSCO) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2020 財年第二季度財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。如有異議，可斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。女士，您可以開始了。

Thanks, Michelle. Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chairman and CEO; and Kelly Kramer, our CFO.

謝謝，米歇爾。歡迎大家參加思科 2020 財年第二季度季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Chuck Robbins 也加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Kelly Kramer。

By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call. Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website.

到目前為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。電話會議後，將在我們網站的“投資者關係”部分提供相應的帶幻燈片的網絡廣播，包括補充信息。損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節信息、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務信息也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的“財務信息”部分找到。

Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders, unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be made on a year-over-year basis. The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the third quarter of fiscal 2020. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter, unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

在整個電話會議中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並且我們將討論收入方面的產品結果以及產品訂單方面的地理和客戶結果，除非另有說明。在本次電話會議中進行的所有比較都將按年進行。我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2020 財年第三季度提供的指導意見。它們受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性的影響，特別是關於 10-K 和 10-Q 表格的最新報告，其中確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。關於指南，另請參閱本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細信息。除非通過明確的公開披露，否則思科不會在本季度對其財務指導發表評論。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Chuck.

有了這個，我現在把它交給查克。

Thanks, Marilyn, and good afternoon, everyone. As we told you last quarter and still see now, the feedback from our customers is that they remain strongly committed to both our products and services. However, like many in our industry, we are seeing longer decision-making cycles across our customer segments for a variety of reasons, including macro uncertainty as well as unique geographical issues. The good news is, once this uncertainty passes for our customers, we expect to see spending recover as technology continues to be at the heart of all they do. You'll see in our numbers this quarter that we continue to make progress on several key metrics, including our shift to more software and subscriptions, with 72% of our software now being sold as a subscription. While we still have a lot more work to do, I firmly believe we have a tremendous opportunity ahead of us.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮，大家下午好。正如我們在上個季度告訴您並且現在仍然看到的那樣，我們客戶的反饋是他們仍然堅定地致力於我們的產品和服務。然而，與我們行業中的許多人一樣，由於各種原因，包括宏觀不確定性和獨特的地理問題，我們看到我們的客戶群的決策週期更長。好消息是，一旦這種不確定性對我們的客戶來說過去了，我們預計會看到支出恢復，因為技術仍然是他們所做一切的核心。您會在本季度的數字中看到，我們在幾個關鍵指標上繼續取得進展，包括我們轉向更多軟件和訂閱，我們 72% 的軟件現在以訂閱形式出售。雖然我們還有很多工作要做，但我堅信我們面前有巨大的機會。

The long-term secular growth trends of 5G, WiFi 6, 400 gig and the shift to the cloud remain, and we expect to benefit from them. This is a multiyear transformation, and we are managing our business well while staying focused on helping our customers build simpler, more secure and cost-effective networks. The broad adoption of multi-cloud and modern application environments is changing how the world's largest networks are built, operated and secured, and Cisco is at the center of this transition. We have made significant investments in the development of software, silicon and optics, the building blocks for the Internet of the future. We believe this strategy will change the economics of how the Internet will be built to support 5G, 400 gig and the demands of the future while helping our customers innovate and move faster than ever before.

5G、WiFi 6、400 gig 和向雲轉移的長期長期增長趨勢依然存在，我們預計將從中受益。這是一個多年的轉型，我們在管理好我們的業務的同時，繼續專注於幫助我們的客戶構建更簡單、更安全和更具成本效益的網絡。多雲和現代應用程序環境的廣泛採用正在改變世界上最大網絡的構建、運營和保護方式，而思科處於這一轉變的中心。我們在軟件、矽和光學的開發方面進行了大量投資，這些都是未來互聯網的基石。我們相信這一戰略將改變構建互聯網以支持 5G、400 gig 和未來需求的經濟模式，同時幫助我們的客戶以前所未有的速度創新和發展。

In December, we introduced Cisco Silicon One, a first-ever single, unified silicon architecture; and the Cisco 8000 carrier-class router family built on Silicon One; as well as our new IOS XR7 operating system. We also announced new flexible purchasing options that enable customers to consume our technology, however they choose. We also collaborated closely with several of the largest web-scale and SP companies throughout the development process. Their participation in our launch demonstrates their strong support of our strategy as well as our commitment to continued innovation. Our goal is to accelerate the deployment of next-generation Internet infrastructure by offering our customers choices of components, white box or integrated systems in a flexible consumption model.

12 月，我們推出了 Cisco Silicon One，這是有史以來第一個單一的統一芯片架構；以及基於 Silicon One 構建的 Cisco 8000 運營商級路由器系列；以及我們新的 IOS XR7 操作系統。我們還宣布了新的靈活購買選項，使客戶能夠按照他們的選擇使用我們的技術。在整個開發過程中，我們還與幾家最大的網絡規模和 SP 公司密切合作。他們參與我們的發布表明了他們對我們戰略的大力支持以及我們對持續創新的承諾。我們的目標是通過在靈活的消費模式中為客戶提供組件、白盒或集成系統的選擇，加速下一代互聯網基礎設施的部署。

Now let me share a brief update on our businesses, starting with Infrastructure Platforms. As the global leader in networking, we believe we are well positioned with our intent-based networking portfolio given the strategic investments we've been making. Over the past several quarters, we've made tremendous progress integrating automation, analytics and security across our enterprise networking portfolio, while at the same time, shifting to a subscription-based model. A great example of our success is the ongoing strong adoption of our Catalyst 9000 platforms. We continue to extend our secure SD-WAN solutions as customers move more applications to the cloud. To do this, we are actively engaging with web-scale companies to help our customers extend their wide-area networks to the cloud and secure their business applications. Recently, we announced integration with Microsoft Azure Virtual WAN and Office 365, along with a deeper partnership with Amazon Web Services, to deliver highly secure end-to-end connectivity and better application performance.

現在讓我分享一下我們業務的簡要更新，從基礎設施平台開始。作為網絡領域的全球領導者，我們相信，鑑於我們一直在進行的戰略投資，我們在基於意圖的網絡產品組合方面處於有利地位。在過去的幾個季度中，我們在企業網絡產品組合中集成自動化、分析和安全方面取得了巨大進步，同時轉向基於訂閱的模式。我們成功的一個很好的例子是我們 Catalyst 9000 平台的持續廣泛採用。隨著客戶將更多應用程序遷移到雲端，我們將繼續擴展我們的安全 SD-WAN 解決方案。為此，我們積極與網絡規模的公司合作，幫助我們的客戶將他們的廣域網擴展到雲端並保護他們的業務應用程序。最近，我們宣布與 Microsoft Azure Virtual WAN 和 Office 365 集成，並與 Amazon Web Services 建立更深層次的合作夥伴關係，以提供高度安全的端到端連接和更好的應用程序性能。

Now to Security. We had another solid quarter with strength across our advanced threat and cloud-based solutions, including Duo and Umbrella, which are important growth drivers of our business. We continue to see significant opportunity as we execute on our strategy to deliver an integrated security platform. As the market moves to a multi-cloud environment and the need for visibility grows, we're benefiting from our strong position as our customers' most trusted partner.

現在到安全。我們的高級威脅和基於雲的解決方案（包括 Duo 和 Umbrella）是我們業務增長的重要驅動力，我們又迎來了一個穩健的季度。在我們執行交付集成安全平台的戰略時，我們繼續看到重大機遇。隨著市場轉向多雲環境以及對可見性的需求不斷增長，我們正受益於我們作為客戶最值得信賴的合作夥伴的強大地位。

Our differentiated end-to-end approach across the network, cloud and endpoint is winning customers with 100% of the Fortune 100 now using one or more of Cisco security solutions. This quarter, we expanded our security portfolio from the cloud to the edge. We brought to market an integrated IoT architecture, providing enhanced visibility, insights and threat detection across our customers' entire environment. This architecture includes our new software-based security solutions, Cyber Vision; and our Edge Intelligence data collection tool to enable our customers to make better business decisions.

我們跨網絡、雲和端點的差異化端到端方法正在贏得客戶，100% 的財富 100 強企業現在都在使用一種或多種思科安全解決方案。本季度，我們將安全產品組合從雲端擴展到邊緣。我們將集成的物聯網架構推向市場，在客戶的整個環境中提供增強的可見性、洞察力和威脅檢測。該架構包括我們新的基於軟件的安全解決方案 Cyber Vision；以及我們的 Edge Intelligence 數據收集工具，使我們的客戶能夠做出更好的業務決策。

Finally, Applications. There is no question that customers are undergoing a significant workplace transformation, and they are turning to Cisco to help them with this transition. As a global market leader, we believe we are the only company providing a cognitive, highly secure and analytics-driven collaboration platform, which is the foundation for their workplace transformation. This platform is becoming increasingly critical to how enterprises empower their teams by allowing their employees to work more effectively together. To extend our value proposition, we continue to make strategic investments. For example, we recently brought to market several key WebEx capabilities, which combine context, AI and machine learning to enable our customers and their teams to further enhance their meeting experiences.

最後，應用程序。毫無疑問，客戶正在經歷一場重大的工作場所轉型，他們正在求助於思科來幫助他們完成這一轉型。作為全球市場領導者，我們相信我們是唯一一家提供認知、高度安全和分析驅動的協作平台的公司，這是他們工作場所轉型的基礎。該平台對於企業如何通過讓員工更有效地一起工作來增強團隊能力變得越來越重要。為了擴展我們的價值主張，我們繼續進行戰略投資。例如，我們最近將幾個關鍵的 WebEx 功能推向市場，這些功能結合了上下文、人工智能和機器學習，使我們的客戶及其團隊能夠進一步增強他們的會議體驗。

We achieved another strong quarter of growth with AppDynamics, demonstrating our ability to deliver unique real-time, AI-powered insights from a single pane of glass, providing complete visibility. Our customers are looking to connect application performance monitoring with infrastructure automation to simplify IT and increase productivity. 2 weeks ago, we announced we are bringing together AppDynamics and our Intersight Workload Optimizer to deliver comprehensive visibility of applications and infrastructure, both on-prem and in the cloud, using machine learning and AI to proactively remediate problems and optimize user experiences.

我們通過 AppDynamics 實現了又一個強勁的季度增長，證明了我們有能力從單一管理平台提供獨特的實時、人工智能驅動的洞察力，提供完整的可見性。我們的客戶希望將應用程序性能監控與基礎架構自動化相結合，以簡化 IT 並提高生產力。 2 週前，我們宣布將 AppDynamics 和我們的 Intersight Workload Optimizer 結合在一起，以提供應用程序和基礎設施的全面可見性，包括本地和雲端，使用機器學習和人工智能主動修復問題和優化用戶體驗。

To summarize, I am pleased with our business transformation and with the new innovative platforms we're bringing to market. While we continue to experience some pause in customer spending related to the uncertainty in the global macro environment, our long-term growth opportunities remain unchanged. Going forward, we will continue to focus on developing groundbreaking technologies and building a new Internet for the 5G era that will help our customers innovate faster than ever before. I remain incredibly confident that our execution against our strategy will drive profitable growth and generate strong shareholder returns for the long term.

總而言之，我對我們的業務轉型以及我們推向市場的新創新平台感到滿意。雖然我們繼續經歷與全球宏觀環境不確定性相關的客戶支出暫停，但我們的長期增長機會保持不變。展望未來，我們將繼續專注於開發突破性技術並為 5G 時代構建新互聯網，幫助我們的客戶以前所未有的速度進行創新。我仍然非常有信心，我們對我們戰略的執行將推動盈利增長並產生強勁的長期股東回報。

I will now turn it over to Kelly.

我現在將把它交給凱利。

Thanks, Chuck. I'll start with a summary of our financial results for the quarter, followed by the guidance for Q3. Our overall Q2 results were consistent with our expectations. We executed well with strong margins and EPS growth. Total revenue was down $12 billion -- was at $12 billion, down 4%. Our non-GAAP operating margin rate was 33.7%, up 1.6 points. Non-GAAP net income was $3.3 billion, flat year-over-year; and non-GAAP EPS was $0.77, up 5%.

謝謝，查克。我將從本季度的財務業績摘要開始，然後是第三季度的指導。我們第二季度的整體業績符合我們的預期。我們執行良好，利潤率和每股收益增長強勁。總收入下降了 120 億美元，為 120 億美元，下降了 4%。我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 33.7%，上升 1.6 個百分點。非美國通用會計準則淨收入為 33 億美元，同比持平；非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.77 美元，增長 5%。

Let me provide some more detail on our Q2 revenue. Total product revenue was down 6% to $8.7 billion. Infrastructure Platforms was down 8%. Switching revenue declined in both Campus and Data Center. We did see growth with the continued ramp of our Cat 9K and strength of the Nexus 9K. Routing declined driven by weakness in service provider. Wireless declined overall, but we did see strong growth in Meraki and are starting to see the ramp of our WiFi 6 products. Data Center revenue declined driven by servers, offset by strong growth in HyperFlex. Applications was down 8% driven by a decline in Unified Communications, partially offset by double-digit growth in AppDynamics. Security was 9% with strong performance in identity and access, advanced threat and unified threat management. Service revenue was up 5% driven by software and solution support. We continue to transform our business, delivering more software offerings and driving more subscriptions. Software subscriptions were 72% of total software revenue, up 7 points year-over-year.

讓我提供更多關於我們第二季度收入的細節。產品總收入下降 6% 至 87 億美元。基礎設施平台下降了 8%。園區和數據中心的交換收入均有所下降。隨著 Cat 9K 的持續增長和 Nexus 9K 的實力，我們確實看到了增長。由於服務提供商的疲軟，路由下降。無線業務整體下降，但我們確實看到 Meraki 的強勁增長，並且開始看到我們的 WiFi 6 產品的增長。數據中心收入在服務器的推動下有所下降，但被 HyperFlex 的強勁增長所抵消。由於統一通信的下滑，應用程序下降了 8%，部分被 AppDynamics 的兩位數增長所抵消。安全性為 9%，在身份和訪問、高級威脅和統一威脅管理方面表現出色。在軟件和解決方案支持的推動下，服務收入增長了 5%。我們繼續轉變我們的業務，提供更多的軟件產品並推動更多的訂閱。軟件訂閱佔軟件總收入的 72%，同比增長 7 個百分點。

In terms of orders in Q2, total product orders were down 6%. Looking at our geographies, the Americas was down 8%, EMEA was down 1% and APJC was down 4%. Total emerging markets were down 7%, with the BRICS plus Mexico down 20%. In our customer segments, public sector was flat, while enterprise was down 7%. Commercial was down 4%, and service provider was down 11%. Remaining performance obligations, or RPO, at the end of Q2 were $24.9 billion, up 11%.

在第二季度的訂單方面，產品訂單總量下降了 6%。從我們的地理位置來看，美洲下降了 8%，EMEA 下降了 1%，APJC 下降了 4%。新興市場總量下降了 7%，其中金磚國家和墨西哥下降了 20%。在我們的客戶群中，公共部門持平，而企業下降了 7%。商業下降了 4%，服務提供商下降了 11%。第二季度末剩餘履約義務 (RPO) 為 249 億美元，增長 11%。

From a non-GAAP profitability perspective, total Q2 gross margin was 66.4%, up 2.3 points. Product gross margin was 65.9%, up 3.1 points; and service gross margin was 67.7%, flat year-over-year. In terms of the bottom line, from a GAAP perspective, Q2 net income was $2.9 billion, and EPS was $0.68.

從非美國通用會計準則盈利能力的角度來看，第二季度總毛利率為 66.4%，上升 2.3 個百分點。產品毛利率為65.9%，上升3.1個百分點；服務毛利率為 67.7%，同比持平。底線方面，從 GAAP 角度來看，Q2 淨收入為 29 億美元，EPS 為 0.68 美元。

We ended Q2 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $27.1 billion. Operating cash flow was $3.8 billion, flat year-over-year. From a capital allocation perspective, we returned $2.4 billion to shareholders during the quarter that was comprised of $0.9 billion of share repurchases and $1.5 billion for our quarterly dividend. Today, we announced a $0.01 increase to the quarterly dividend to $0.36 per share, up 3% year-over-year. This represents a yield of approximately 2.9% based on today's closing price. This dividend increase reinforces our commitment to returning capital to our shareholders and our confidence in the strength and stability of our ongoing cash flows.

我們在第二季度末的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 271 億美元。經營現金流為 38 億美元，同比持平。從資本配置的角度來看，我們在本季度向股東返還了 24 億美元，其中包括 9 億美元的股票回購和 15 億美元的季度股息。今天，我們宣布將季度股息增加 0.01 美元至每股 0.36 美元，同比增長 3%。根據今天的收盤價，這意味著收益率約為 2.9%。股息的增加加強了我們向股東返還資本的承諾，以及我們對持續現金流量的實力和穩定性的信心。

We continue to invest organically and inorganically in our innovation pipeline. In early Q3, we closed our acquisition of Exablaze, a designer and manufacturer of advanced network devices aimed at reducing latency and improving network performance.

我們繼續對我們的創新管道進行有機和無機投資。在第三季度初，我們完成了對 Exablaze 的收購，Exablaze 是一家旨在減少延遲和提高網絡性能的高級網絡設備的設計商和製造商。

To summarize, we executed well with strong margins and EPS growth. We're seeing the returns on the investments we're making in innovation and driving the shift to more software and subscriptions, delivering long-term growth and shareholder value.

總而言之，我們執行良好，利潤率和每股收益增長強勁。我們正在看到我們在創新和推動向更多軟件和訂閱的轉變方面所做投資的回報，從而實現長期增長和股東價值。

Let me reiterate our guidance for the third quarter of fiscal '20. This guidance includes the type of forward-looking information that Marilyn referred to earlier. We expect revenue to decline in the range of minus 1.5% to minus 3.5% year-over-year. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin rate to be in the range of 64.5% to 65.5%. The non-GAAP operating margin rate is expected to be in the range of 32.5% to 33.5%, and the non-GAAP tax provision rate is expected to be 20%. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.79 to $0.81. Our guidance does not reflect any potential disruptions in our global supply chain that could result from the coronavirus. We will continue to monitor the situation closely.

讓我重申我們對 20 財年第三季度的指導。本指南包括 Marilyn 之前提到的前瞻性信息類型。我們預計收入將同比下降-1.5%至-3.5%。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率將在 64.5% 至 65.5% 的範圍內。非 GAAP 營業利潤率預計在 32.5% 至 33.5% 之間，非 GAAP 稅收撥備率預計為 20%。非 GAAP 每股收益預計在 0.79 美元至 0.81 美元之間。我們的指南並未反映冠狀病毒可能對我們的全球供應鏈造成的任何潛在破壞。我們會繼續密切留意情況。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn, so we can move into Q&A.

現在我將把它轉回瑪麗蓮，這樣我們就可以進入問答環節了。

Thanks, Kelly. Michelle, let's go ahead and open the line for questions.

謝謝，凱利。米歇爾，讓我們開始提問吧。

Tim Long from Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的蒂姆·朗。

Yes. Chuck, maybe if I could just start talking about the macro and the kind of the longer decision process. In your sense, how long do you think this would last, particularly if you maybe put into the context that you mentioned a lot of industry drivers going on in 400 gig and WiFi 6? And obviously, you got some new router and silicon products out. So maybe just talk a little bit about the timing of that recovery and how you think you can maybe outperform it given all the different dynamics you have going across the businesses this year.

是的。查克，也許我可以開始談論宏觀和那種較長的決策過程。在您看來，您認為這會持續多長時間，特別是如果您考慮到您提到了 400 gig 和 WiFi 6 中的許多行業驅動因素？顯然，您推出了一些新的路由器和矽產品。因此，也許只是談談復甦的時機，以及考慮到今年您在各個業務中遇到的所有不同動態，您認為您如何可能超越它。

Yes. Tim, thanks. It's a great question. So I think, first of all, there are many secular growth drivers that are lined up, the 5G transition, the 400-gig transition, WiFi 6, the shift to cloud. And what we're seeing from customers is really just -- it's just pausing, just trying to see what's going on. Now what I'll say is that, clearly, late in the quarter, if you look at some of the issues that had been outstanding that were creating some of the uncertainty, like Brexit, we got closer to resolution. We obviously got a signature late in the quarter on a first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal, and USMCA has now gone through in the U.S. So hopefully, those will give our customers a little more viability. When I speak to the customers, they're still fully planning on moving forward. They're just a little cautious and trying to see what's going on. We obviously have the virus now that we'll see how it plays out. But overall, I don't think it's deep. And we expect that, given some of this uncertainty has now dissipated, notwithstanding what we see, obviously, from the virus, that hopefully we'll see our customers pick up again.

是的。蒂姆，謝謝。這是一個很好的問題。所以我認為，首先，有許多長期的增長驅動力在排隊，5G 過渡、400 兆過渡、WiFi 6、向雲的轉變。我們從客戶那裡看到的只是 - 它只是暫停，只是想看看發生了什麼。現在我要說的是，很明顯，在本季度末，如果你看看一些造成一些不確定性的懸而未決的問題，比如英國退歐，我們離解決更近了。很明顯，我們在本季度末就美中貿易協議的第一階段簽署了協議，而 USMCA 現已在美國通過。因此，希望這些會給我們的客戶帶來更多的可行性。當我與客戶交談時，他們仍在全面計劃前進。他們只是有點謹慎，想看看發生了什麼。我們現在顯然已經感染了病毒，我們將看看它是如何發揮作用的。但總的來說，我認為它不深。我們預計，鑑於這種不確定性現在已經消散了一些，儘管我們顯然從病毒中看到了什麼，但我們希望我們能看到我們的客戶再次回升。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

Tejas Venkatesh from UBS.

來自瑞銀的 Tejas Venkatesh。

I had a big-picture question. With the December routing announcements and the Cat 9K before that, a lot of the Cisco strategy is now around selling incremental automation software to lower customer OpEx. That seems to require a significant change in your organization. So how far along are you in the sales and channel transformation to fit that goal?

我有一個大問題。隨著 12 月的路由公告和之前的 Cat 9K，思科的許多戰略現在都圍繞著銷售增量自動化軟件以降低客戶的運營支出。這似乎需要對您的組織進行重大改變。那麼，為了實現該目標，您在銷售和渠道轉型方面走了多遠？

That's a very good question. Thank you. I -- we have done a lot of work on the transformation of being able to support the software model and the subscription software model, in particular, with the automation. And we have -- if you go back to 2017, when we first launched the Catalyst 9000 and we announced subscription businesses on our enterprise networking portfolio, the second half of this year will have some -- a number of -- a small amount of the early renewals on that. So our team has been working hard to be prepared for those renewals. And then in fiscal '21, we'll see a material number, a reasonably material number associated with that. So I think the sales organization, we've run pilots, and now we've scaled things. We're running other pilots, and we're scaling things. And we've got the customer experience organization that Maria Martina is leading that has been building out their capabilities. So we have more to do, but I feel good about the progress we've made, and I think that we're in a pretty good position right now.

這是一個很好的問題。謝謝。我——我們在能夠支持軟件模型和訂閱軟件模型的轉型方面做了很多工作，特別是在自動化方面。而且我們 - 如果你回到 2017 年，當我們首次推出 Catalyst 9000 並宣布我們的企業網絡產品組合中的訂閱業務時，今年下半年將會有一些 - 一些 - 少量早期的更新。因此，我們的團隊一直在努力為這些續約做好準備。然後在 21 財年，我們將看到一個材料編號，一個與之相關的合理材料編號。所以我認為銷售組織，我們已經進行了試點，現在我們已經擴大了規模。我們正在運行其他試點，我們正在擴大規模。我們擁有 Maria Martina 領導的客戶體驗組織，該組織一直在構建自己的能力。所以我們還有更多工作要做，但我對我們取得的進展感到滿意，我認為我們現在處於一個非常好的位置。

Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

雷蒙·詹姆斯的西蒙·利奧波德。

I'm wondering if maybe you could talk a little bit more about the service provider vertical given it's been a long-running challenge and seems as if, maybe to some extent, it's less of a focus for Cisco given that it's such -- become a smaller part of the business. But I want to see if you can maybe talk about how you see this market eventually recovering, kind of the timing and the drivers, maybe double-clicking beyond just sort of the 5G hand-waving, if we could get a better understanding of what will drive it and when.

我想知道你是否可以多談談垂直服務提供商，因為這是一個長期存在的挑戰，而且似乎在某種程度上，它不是思科的重點，因為它是這樣的 - 成為業務的一小部分。但我想看看你是否可以談談你如何看待這個市場最終復甦，時間和驅動因素，也許雙擊不僅僅是 5G 揮手，如果我們能更好地了解什麼什麼時候會開車。

Simon, it's a lot better just to wave hands. Now let me tell you a little bit. I don't think that it's a market that we are ignoring or we -- in fact, if you look at the announcements we made in December, let me give you a little update on that. We have about 5 years of R&D effort in what we announced in December. So that's a lot of commitment to the market. So we do believe that there will be a resurgence. I think that -- I will talk about 5G and 400 gig as well. But just to give you an update on -- in December, as you know, we launched Silicon One, which is at the heart of these new systems called Cisco 8000 that we launched. And we also announced that we would be willing to sell our Silicon to go into a white box or sell it just directly to a customer, if that's how they like to procure it. I will tell you that across the cloud titans there, we're engaged with all of them on variations of those architectures. Several of them were with us at the announcement in December, which shows you their belief in what we're doing. We have taken orders for both from different cloud players, and so we feel good about the acceptance of that launch. The 8000 series will be a fundamental backbone product for 5G networks, and I will tell you that we have early wins on IP infrastructure to support 5G rollouts in over 30 customers around the world. They're early. Some of those are cell site aggregation, backhaul, some core wins. Most of them are in non-stand-alone, which means they're enhancing their current networks, and then they'll look to build stand-alone networks. As we've said, we believe that will start in 2021 where we could begin to see some of that pickup. So we think the 400-gig transition as well as the 5G build-out will be the drivers that we'd be looking for over the next couple of years.

西蒙，揮手就好了。現在讓我告訴你一點。我不認為這是一個我們忽視的市場，或者我們——事實上，如果你看看我們在 12 月份發布的公告，讓我給你一些更新。我們在 12 月宣布的內容中進行了大約 5 年的研發工作。所以這是對市場的很多承諾。因此，我們確實相信會有復蘇。我認為——我也會談論 5G 和 400 gig。但只是為了向您介紹最新情況——如您所知，我們在 12 月推出了 Silicon One，它是我們推出的這些名為 Cisco 8000 的新系統的核心。我們還宣布，如果客戶願意以這種方式採購，我們願意出售我們的矽以放入白盒或直接出售給客戶。我會告訴你，在這些雲巨頭中，我們正在與他們一起研究這些架構的變體。他們中的一些人在 12 月的公告中與我們同在，這表明他們相信我們正在做的事情。我們已經從不同的雲播放器那裡獲得了這兩款產品的訂單，因此我們對該發布的接受度感到滿意。 8000 系列將成為 5G 網絡的基礎骨幹產品，我會告訴你，我們已經在 IP 基礎設施方面取得了早期勝利，以支持全球 30 多家客戶推出 5G。他們來早了。其中一些是蜂窩站點聚合、回程，一些是核心勝利。他們中的大多數都是非獨立的，這意味著他們正在增強他們當前的網絡，然後他們將尋求建立獨立的網絡。正如我們所說，我們相信這將從 2021 年開始，屆時我們可能會開始看到其中的一些回升。因此，我們認為 400-gig 過渡以及 5G 擴建將成為我們在未來幾年尋找的驅動力。

Thanks, Chuck.

謝謝，查克。

Paul Silverstein from Cowen and Company.

來自 Cowen and Company 的 Paul Silverstein。

Sorry, I'm still -- don't know how to use the cellphone. Kelly, your margin structure was particularly strong this quarter, and that represents a long-standing trend, both near term and longer term. I recognize the guidance represents an easing. I assume some of that is due to the backup in DRAM pricing or the pending backup. Can you go back through the drivers and what you expect over the next year or 2 both at gross and the operating level?

抱歉，我仍然——不知道如何使用手機。凱利，本季度您的保證金結構特別強勁，這代表了近期和長期的長期趨勢。我認識到該指導代表了一種寬鬆政策。我假設其中一部分是由於 DRAM 定價的備份或待處理的備份。您能否回顧一下驅動因素以及您對明年或 2 年的總體和運營水平的期望？

Yes, sure. Happy to. And I know we're really happy about where the -- both gross margins and op margins are. But as you know, Paul, it's driven by a few things. This software transformation has been benefiting us through both -- you can see it in the mix of our products when we show you the gross margin walks in our Qs as well as just overall, so we're benefiting from that. I'd say the second big driver is price. We've been very, very disciplined on price, meaning we're taking advantage of raising prices where we have elasticity, for example, on really older products that we want to shift to newer products or where we know we have room to move, we've been doing that, I think, very effectively. We've been managing the decline in the pricing and the server market fairly well, balancing that with the DRAM prices that are going down dramatically.

是的，當然。高興。而且我知道我們對毛利率和營業利潤率在哪裡感到非常高興。但正如你所知，保羅，它是由幾件事驅動的。這種軟件轉型使我們受益匪淺——當我們向您展示 Qs 中的毛利率以及整體情況時，您可以在我們的產品組合中看到它，因此我們從中受益。我想說第二大驅動因素是價格。我們在價格上一直非常非常嚴格，這意味著我們在有彈性的地方利用提高價格的機會，例如，在我們想要轉移到新產品的真正老產品上，或者我們知道我們有移動空間的地方，我認為，我們一直在這樣做，非常有效。我們一直在很好地管理價格和服務器市場的下降，平衡它與急劇下降的 DRAM 價格。

So what you're going to see in the reporting this quarter, Paul, and I know you always ask, you'll see our pricing. I mentioned in the last quarter's call that pricing was at an all-time lowest level of impact, meaning the most beneficial it's been. We're right back at 1.1 points on our year-over-year gross margin walk, so it's still very, very good for us and more in line of what it was, I'd say, a couple of quarters before Q1. So that's going well. DRAM is benefiting us this quarter for sure. And as you know, that's becoming less and less of a benefit to us now as we're starting to see the DRAM prices tick back up. But we've, again, managed that pricing and DRAM cost equation very well. So just in general, I think you can expect a little bit more pressure from DRAM pricing, the year-over-year compares getting less, which is why I guided what I guided. But overall, you're still going to see the goodness coming through from the continued increase of our business being software driven.

所以你將在本季度的報告中看到什麼，保羅，我知道你總是問，你會看到我們的定價。我在上個季度的電話會議中提到，定價的影響處於歷史最低水平，這意味著它是最有利的。我們的毛利率同比增長回到了 1.1 個百分點，所以這對我們來說仍然非常非常好，而且更符合第一季度前幾個季度的情況。所以一切順利。 DRAM 本季度肯定讓我們受益。正如你所知，隨著我們開始看到 DRAM 價格回升，這對我們的好處越來越少。但我們再次很好地管理了定價和 DRAM 成本等式。所以總的來說，我認為你可以預期 DRAM 定價會帶來更多壓力，與去年同期相比，壓力會越來越小，這就是為什麼我指導我指導的原因。但總的來說，您仍然會看到軟件驅動業務的持續增長帶來的好處。

Kelly, if I could just quickly follow up. Looking beyond the quarter, looking beyond April, given the ongoing shift to software, is there any reason why margins should continue to head up, putting aside quarterly volatility?

凱利，如果我能快速跟進就好了。展望本季度之後，展望 4 月份以後，考慮到持續向軟件的轉變，撇開季度波動不談，是否有任何理由說明利潤率應該繼續上升？

Yes. I mean, again, I would say yes because what we're doing on the portfolio is more and more software content. So by definition, it will be good for us. We will always have the potential for large swings for things like component costs like DRAM, plus or minus. But as always, we'll let you know when those are happening. But yes, I mean, if you go back and look 3 years back from where we were there to where we are now, it is long term, just the shift of the overall portfolio that we've been driving.

是的。我的意思是，再一次，我會說是的，因為我們在產品組合上所做的是越來越多的軟件內容。所以根據定義，這對我們有好處。我們將始終有可能在 DRAM 等組件成本方面出現大幅波動，無論是正負。但一如既往，我們會在這些情況發生時通知您。但是，是的，我的意思是，如果你回頭看看 3 年前從我們現在的位置到現在的位置，這是長期的，只是我們一直在推動的整體投資組合的轉變。

Jim Suva from Citigroup Investment Research.

花旗集團投資研究部的 Jim Suva。

Thank you very much for the clarity so far. And I had one question that's kind of more broad. I don't know if it's -- for which of you. But on product orders, I was just kind of looking and thinking about the product orders. It looks like the enterprise product orders got incrementally a little more challenged. Public sector got a little more challenged. Service provider marginally improved compared to last quarter year-over-year. So can you maybe just give us some color on product orders? It looks like maybe enterprise, a little difficult year-over-year comps. Was it last year, a big product cycle in enterprise? Or why are we actually seeing enterprise kind of decline incrementally a little bit worse?

非常感謝您到目前為止的清晰度。我有一個更廣泛的問題。我不知道它是否——適合你們中的哪一個。但在產品訂單上，我只是在觀察和思考產品訂單。看起來企業產品訂單越來越受到挑戰。公共部門面臨的挑戰更大一些。與上一季度相比，服務提供商略有改善。那麼你能不能給我們一些關於產品訂單的顏色？看起來可能是企業，有點困難的年度比較。去年是企業的大產品週期嗎？或者為什麼我們實際上看到企業在逐漸下降，甚至更糟？

Yes. Jim, good question, and let me take a crack at it. So when I look at the segment, it's -- if I focus on enterprise, a lot of it is the Q2 '19 really, really strong product cycle ramps we had. So if I go back to Q2 '19, it was a record for the Campus switching for -- as well as for Collaboration back in Q2 '19. No excuse, but that's what that was.

是的。吉姆，好問題，讓我試一試。因此，當我看這個細分市場時，它是——如果我專注於企業，其中很多是 19 年第二季度我們擁有的非常、非常強大的產品週期斜坡。因此，如果我回到 19 年第二季度，這是 Campus 切換的記錄——以及 19 年第二季度的協作記錄。沒有任何藉口，但事實就是如此。

I would say beyond that, if I would isolate overall kind of our regions from a bookings point of view, the Americas was down 8%. And if I look at that, the U.S. itself was slightly better but in that range, and I'd say it was driven by 2 areas. It was driven by the routing portfolio, largely SP segment. That was the biggest driver. And the second biggest driver was the decline we're seeing in the server market. And again, that's directly related to the decline of DRAM prices flowing through the entire market, and we saw that last quarter as well. So that drove the Americas. Europe was at minus 1%, basically flat. But that -- the biggest driver when I look at Europe was really the U.K. We are seeing a slowdown because of Brexit, and we did see it in the public sector significantly, which is always a big growth driver for the U.K. for us. So U.K., both enterprise and public sector slowed down for us, which drove Europe. Europe would have been up 2 points without the U.K. And then for APJC, it continues to be the rapid decline of China. China, as I've talked about, and the BRICS plus Mexico being down. China was down again over 30%. It's still only about 2% of our total business, but it still hurts the overall. I mean Asia Pac, excluding China, would have been up a couple of points as well, 3 points.

除此之外，如果我從預訂的角度來看我們地區的整體類型，美洲下降了 8%。如果我看一下，美國本身稍微好一點，但在那個範圍內，我想說它是由兩個領域驅動的。它是由路由組合驅動的，主要是 SP 部分。這是最大的驅動力。第二大驅動因素是我們在服務器市場看到的下滑。同樣，這與流經整個市場的 DRAM 價格下降直接相關，我們在上個季度也看到了這一點。所以這推動了美洲。歐洲為-1%，基本持平。但是，當我觀察歐洲時，最大的推動力實際上是英國。由於英國脫歐，我們看到經濟放緩，我們確實在公共部門看到了顯著增長，這對我們來說一直是英國的一個重要增長動力。因此，英國企業和公共部門對我們來說都放緩了，這推動了歐洲。如果沒有英國，歐洲會上升 2 個百分點。然後對於 APJC，它繼續是中國的快速下降。正如我所說的，中國、金磚國家和墨西哥都處於低迷狀態。中國再次下跌超過 30%。它仍然只占我們總業務的 2% 左右，但它仍然損害了整體。我的意思是亞太地區，不包括中國，也會上升幾個點，3 個點。

So from a geography, those are the key drivers. And again, to your point, we are going off against some tough compares in enterprise for both the Catalyst 9K ramp a year ago, and Collab just had a record quarter.

因此，從地理位置來看，這些是關鍵驅動因素。再一次，就你的觀點而言，我們將在一年前對企業中的 Catalyst 9K ramp 進行一些艱難的比較，而 Collab 剛剛創下了創紀錄的季度。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

Ittai Kidron from Oppenheimer & Company.

來自 Oppenheimer & Company 的 Ittai Kidron。

Chuck, I wanted to dig into Applications, down 8% on a year-over-year basis. And I understand the pressure on the Unified Communications business, and it's good to see APPD is still growing. But you haven't talked WebEx. Am I to assume that WebEx is not growing, stuck in the middle here? Help me think about the transformation Amy has been doing over there, where we are in that transformation and how should I think about the growth and competitiveness of that platform going forward?

Chuck，我想深入研究應用程序，同比下降 8%。我理解統一通信業務的壓力，很高興看到 APPD 仍在增長。但您還沒有談過 WebEx。我是否假設 WebEx 沒有增長，卡在中間？幫助我思考 Amy 在那裡所做的轉型，我們在轉型中所處的位置，以及我應該如何考慮該平台未來的增長和競爭力？

Yes. I think the -- first of all, they have re-architected all those platforms, integrated the back ends and have a very modern set of solutions to take to market. And we're currently working -- I was talking to the team yesterday. I think there's 11 workshops with major customers in the next 30 days to work on plans to get them to the modern portfolio because some customers have been running variations of the stuff that we've had out there for 10 to 15 years, so we're in good shape. In fact, there was a great analyst report that was written just a couple of days ago about -- industry analyst about the portfolio and how far it's come and how effective it is right now. So I feel good about what they're doing. I think if you look back a year ago, flat out -- Collab was up 24%. I mean -- and it's a huge business to be up that much. So they had a very tough year to compare against, but I'm pleased with where they are. There is competition. Obviously, there's some good competition in the space which frankly should just keep making us better. But the team is doing, I think, a really good job. Kelly, do you want to comment on...

是的。我認為 - 首先，他們已經重新設計了所有這些平台，集成了後端並擁有一套非常現代的解決方案可以推向市場。我們目前正在工作——我昨天和團隊談過。我認為在接下來的 30 天內將有 11 個研討會與主要客戶一起制定計劃，讓他們進入現代產品組合，因為一些客戶一直在運行我們已經使用了 10 到 15 年的東西的變體，所以我們'身體狀況良好。事實上，就在幾天前，有一份很棒的分析師報告——關於投資組合的行業分析師，它已經走了多遠，以及它現在的效果如何。所以我對他們正在做的事情感覺很好。我想如果你回顧一年前，就會發現——Collab 上漲了 24%。我的意思是 - 這是一項巨大的業務。因此，與他們相比，他們度過了非常艱難的一年，但我對他們的處境感到滿意。有競爭。顯然，這個領域有一些很好的競爭，坦率地說，這應該會讓我們變得更好。但我認為，團隊做得非常好。凱利，你想評論...

Yes. I mean I'll just give you the -- I'd say the largest driver was the UC business and the revenue being down, the huge majority, followed by a bit on the endpoints on the TP. And conferencing was down marginally, hardly anything. So the biggest driver was, for sure, the -- on the Unified Communications side.

是的。我的意思是我會給你 - 我會說最大的驅動因素是 UC 業務，收入下降，絕大多數，其次是 TP 端點上的一些。會議略有下降，幾乎沒有下降。因此，最大的驅動因素肯定是——在統一通信方面。

Jeff Kvaal from Nomura.

來自野村證券的 Jeff Kvaal。

Yes. I was hoping that you could unpack sort of -- a bit of a bigger downtick maybe in IP than we were expecting a balanced by -- or better performance on the services line. Can you sort of help us understand what the dynamics are and some of that maybe accounting for where the software goes? I'd love to understand that a little bit better, please.

是的。我希望你能解開一些——IP 方面的下降幅度可能比我們預期的要平衡——或者在服務線上有更好的表現。您能否幫助我們了解動態是什麼，其中一些可能會影響軟件的發展方向？我很想更好地理解這一點，拜託。

Yes. I would say -- I've talked about this. On the service increase, it has -- there's been no change on the accounting side for how we account for software. Service improvement, we've been really driving that. Maria Martinez, the lead CX for customer experience, has been really focused on driving renewal rates and adoption. And you've seen our services business from a revenue perspective tick up over the last 4 quarters. So I'd say that 5% growth you saw in services is just continued performance by that team to do that.

是的。我會說——我已經談過這個了。在服務增加方面，我們對軟件的會計方式在會計方面沒有變化。服務改進，我們一直在真正推動它。 Maria Martinez 是負責客戶體驗的首席客戶體驗，她一直專注於推動續訂率和採用率。從收入的角度來看，您已經看到我們的服務業務在過去 4 個季度中有所增長。所以我想說你在服務方面看到的 5% 的增長只是該團隊在這方面的持續表現。

I'd say on the infrastructure platform side, it does go back to, again, just very, very -- we were peak -- not peak, but we were very, very high, ramping of Campus switching last year that -- so that's a tougher compare. I mean it's still growing like crazy, but that's a big driver. Routing is still down, driven by the SP segment. And then in terms of the last piece from a year, again, we talk about, and you saw that Applications was up 24%, again, which was all Collab basically a year ago as well.

我要說的是，在基礎設施平台方面，它確實又回到了非常、非常——我們處於高峰期——不是高峰期，但我們去年校園交換的增長非常非常高——所以這是一個更艱難的比較。我的意思是它仍在瘋狂增長，但這是一個很大的推動力。路由仍在下跌，受SP板塊帶動。然後就一年的最後一篇文章而言，我們再次討論，你看到應用程序再次增長了 24%，這基本上也是一年前的 Collab。

So it's nothing more than those things, I would say. Combined with just the data center server market is -- we're starting to feel that you can see what's happening in the market there.

所以我想說的就是這些。結合數據中心服務器市場——我們開始覺得您可以看到那里市場正在發生的事情。

Does that imply, Kelly, that, that 5% services growth rate is a durable number? Or should we be thinking it will fluctuate between that and the sort of low single-digit growth that we've seen?

凱利，這是否意味著 5% 的服務增長率是一個持久的數字？或者我們是否應該認為它會在那個和我們看到的那種低個位數增長之間波動？

Well, we certainly -- we're certainly trying to make that a sustainable kind of range. We have no desire to have that slow down. But again, it's -- the team is doing everything they can. They're offering new solutions, not just -- they're trying to find more ways to drive incremental growth versus just being tied to the maintenance, to the product orders. And they're driving much more solutions along software and everything else, so they're working a lot of plays in the services area.

好吧，我們當然 - 我們當然正在努力使它成為一種可持續的範圍。我們不希望放慢速度。但同樣，它是——團隊正在盡其所能。他們正在提供新的解決方案，而不僅僅是——他們正在努力尋找更多的方法來推動增量增長，而不是僅僅與維護、產品訂單聯繫在一起。他們正在推動更多軟件和其他方面的解決方案，因此他們在服務領域開展了大量工作。

Obviously, they are. Congratulations.

顯然，他們是。恭喜。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rod Hall from Goldman Sachs.

來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

Yes. I just had a quick question, trying to juxtapose the guidance with the order rates. If you look at the total product orders, the rate, they're down 6%; after, down 4%. So that deteriorated. And yes, your revenue guidance for the midpoint at least, your revenue decline is a little better than the quarter you just printed. So you printed down 3.5%; and the guide, down 2.5%. So kind of tailing on Jeff's question there, is the services making that up? And what should we be expecting for product revenue in the guided quarter?

是的。我只是有一個快速的問題，試圖將指導與訂單率並列。如果你看一下總產品訂單率，它們下降了 6%；之後，下降了 4%。所以情況惡化了。是的，至少你的中點收入指導，你的收入下降比你剛剛打印的季度好一點。所以你打印了 3.5%；和指南，下降 2.5%。有點拖延 Jeff 的問題，是服務彌補了這一點嗎？我們應該對指導季度的產品收入有何期待？

And then I also -- I'm hoping, Chuck, maybe you'll make a comment on this whole 5G investment commentary coming out of the press and maybe the government. What do you think about -- how interested is Cisco in potentially helping deploy U.S. wireless infrastructure, not the stuff you do today, but actual base stations and things like that? Could you just comment on how you see some of those -- that commentary, how you think that might develop?

然後我也——我希望，查克，也許你會對媒體和政府發表的整個 5G 投資評論發表評論。你怎麼看 - 思科對潛在幫助部署美國無線基礎設施有多大興趣，而不是你今天所做的事情，而是實際的基站和類似的東西？您能否評論一下您如何看待其中的一些 - 評論，您認為這可能會如何發展？

You want to go first?

你想先走？

Yes. I can go first. Yes. Your question is a good question, Rod, but I would say, really the -- where we ended up at the minus 6% was not a surprise. That's kind of when I gave guidance for the Q2, kind of what the expectation was. I would say, as you know, when we roll up the guide as we go for Q3, we just -- it's the same process, and we know exactly what's coming off the balance sheet. We have -- we know exactly what's in backlog. We know exactly what we expect for orders coming in, and it's just pure math. I think, again, back to a lot of the decline in the order rate was there's a bit of compares. But the rest, when you do the math and add it all up to what you expect to come through for the next quarter, it gives you the number I guided, the midpoint. If you look at that, it's very consistent with what our normal Q3 to Q2 sequentials are.

是的。我可以先走是的。羅德，你的問題是個好問題，但我要說的是，我們最終以負 6% 的成績結束並不令人意外。那是我為第二季度提供指導的時候，有點像預期的那樣。我會說，正如你所知，當我們在第三季度推出指南時，我們只是 - 這是相同的過程，我們確切地知道資產負債表上有什麼。我們有——我們確切地知道積壓的是什麼。我們確切地知道我們對收到的訂單的期望，這只是純數學。我認為，再次回到訂單率下降的很多方面，這是有一些比較的。但其餘的，當你進行數學運算並將其全部加到你期望下個季度實現的結果時，它會給出我指導的數字，即中點。如果你看一下，它與我們正常的 Q3 到 Q2 順序非常一致。

And, Rod, on the question around the 5G discussions in Washington, I mean, obviously, they're very interested in having U.S. companies participating in 5G and frankly lead in 5G. And so we have spent a lot of time educating different folks in Washington about what technologies actually constitute an entire 5G network. So you rightly said not the stuff we have, but the radio, which is pretty much what we don't have. But I think that -- I think the U.S. is in really good shape. I think we have packet core. We've got cell site and radio backhaul. We got the IP routing core. We got security, and we have -- obviously, there's a couple of companies in Europe, one in South Korea that provide the radio technology. There's also software players that are out there right now that are building disaggregated open RAN solutions that can be used in the future. And so we're spending a lot of time helping them understand that and working to just make sure that there's a recognition that there's a lot of technology that's been built and being built here in the United States that is leading in these 5G infrastructures. And I actually think the U.S. is in fine shape. I think, both from a carrier deployment perspective, I think we're in great shape, and I think we're in good position with the technology. I don't think the U.S. government should make investments in these companies, but we are certainly working with lots of industry peers, again, on both education and then trying to just make sure that the U.S. does have solutions with combining these European players with a lot of our technologies to make sure that everyone's comfortable with those solutions.

羅德，關於華盛頓 5G 討論的問題，我的意思是，很明顯，他們對讓美國公司參與 5G 非常感興趣，並坦率地領導 5G。因此，我們花了很多時間對華盛頓的不同人士進行教育，讓他們了解哪些技術實際上構成了整個 5G 網絡。所以你說得對，不是我們擁有的東西，而是收音機，這幾乎是我們所沒有的。但我認為——我認為美國的狀況非常好。我認為我們有數據包核心。我們有蜂窩基站和無線電回程。我們得到了 IP 路由核心。我們有安全保障，而且我們有——顯然，歐洲有幾家公司，韓國有一家提供無線電技術。現在還有一些軟件玩家正在構建可在未來使用的分解開放式 RAN 解決方案。因此，我們花了很多時間幫助他們理解這一點，並努力確保人們認識到，在這些 5G 基礎設施中，美國已經建立和正在建立的許多技術處於領先地位。我實際上認為美國狀況良好。我認為，從運營商部署的角度來看，我認為我們的狀態很好，而且我認為我們在技術方面處於有利地位。我認為美國政府不應該對這些公司進行投資，但我們肯定會再次與許多行業同行合作，在教育方面，然後努力確保美國確實有解決方案，將這些歐洲公司與我們的許多技術可確保每個人都對這些解決方案感到滿意。

Thanks, Chuck.

謝謝，查克。

Sami Badri from Crédit Suisse.

瑞士信貸銀行的 Sami Badri。

I would like to ask about the SP orders that were down 11% in the quarter. And looking forward to the back half of this year and any kind of forward-looking indicator trajectory commentary would be helpful. If we look at 2 scenarios, one scenario assuming a recent telecom consolidation, right, that we've all heard about in the last 2 days; and then the scenario where no consolidation actually happens for the rest of the year, should we expect service provider orders to inflect positively in one of those scenarios or in both of those scenarios as we look at the back half and maybe kind of mid- to back half of 2020?

我想問一下本季度下降 11% 的 SP 訂單。展望今年下半年以及任何一種前瞻性指標軌跡評論都會有所幫助。如果我們看兩種情況，一種假設最近的電信整合，對，我們在過去兩天都聽說過；然後是今年餘下時間實際上沒有合併的情況，我們是否應該期望服務提供商訂單在其中一種情況下或在這兩種情況下都出現積極變化，因為我們看後半部分，也許是中到2020 年後半？

That's a tough question to answer. We've been dealing with challenges in this segment for a long time. I think the -- history would tell you that when we see consolidation, it creates a slowing. I'm not sure that this particular one represents that because I think they are going to be in investment mode and is triggering investment with other players as well. And I think the 5G build-out that all of them are working on will probably fuel investment. I think, for us, it just depends on how quickly they do that and how soon they decide to build a stand-alone 5G network for enterprises. I think most of them are looking at their consumer networks and believing they can accommodate them on their existing backbones with perhaps some minor upgrades, but I think that will determine it. So I think it's more connected to how fast they move on that than it has to do with any of the consolidation or no consolidation right now.

這是一個很難回答的問題。長期以來，我們一直在應對這一領域的挑戰。我認為 - 歷史會告訴你，當我們看到整合時，它會導致放緩。我不確定這個特定的代表是否代表了這一點，因為我認為他們將處於投資模式並且也會引發與其他參與者的投資。而且我認為他們所有人都在努力的 5G 建設可能會推動投資。我認為，對我們來說，這僅取決於他們這樣做的速度以及他們決定為企業構建獨立的 5G 網絡的速度。我認為他們中的大多數人都在關注他們的消費者網絡，並相信他們可以通過一些小的升級將它們容納在現有的骨幹網中，但我認為這將決定它。所以我認為這與他們前進的速度有關，而不是與現在的任何整合或沒有整合有關。

Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I just wanted to see if we can drill down a bit more on the Cat 9k product portfolio. You mentioned already a couple of times on the call that the product -- the revenue momentum there is quite strong. I was just wondering if you can kind of talk about the impact on the growth rate that you've kind of seen directionally through this kind of broader landscape of slowing enterprise spending and if the growth rate there is kind of still substantially different from what you're seeing for the rest of the portfolio. Is it -- do you think it's more a reflection of the subscription kind of model that you're going with on that portfolio or more kind of the refresh that's driving that difference and kind of what you're seeing related to the rest of the portfolio?

我只是想看看我們是否可以深入了解 Cat 9k 產品組合。您已經在電話中多次提到該產品 - 那裡的收入勢頭非常強勁。我只是想知道你是否可以通過這種企業支出放緩的更廣泛前景來談談你所看到的對增長率的影響，以及那裡的增長率是否仍然與你的有很大不同看到投資組合的其餘部分。是嗎——你認為它更多地反映了你在該投資組合上使用的訂閱模式，還是更多的更新推動了這種差異，以及你所看到的與其餘部分相關的類型文件夾？

Yes. I'll just say the growth rate of the Cat 9K is unbelievable still. I mean it is a very high double-digit number. I would say there's no -- we haven't heard issues. I'd say for maybe some of the smaller DCEs, there's a question about the subscription, but we've managed through that. But I would say those -- the new products from the 9200 through the 9600 that isn't slowing, and the growth rates are very, very strong. Obviously, the legacy products that they have replaced are falling off, as you would expect. But we have not seen any slow on the transition. It's the fast -- and again, we mentioned this in the early ramp of the Cat 9K. But at this point, the percentage of what the Cat 9K as of total Campus switching is the fastest ramp of any transition we've done.

是的。我只想說 Cat 9K 的增長率仍然令人難以置信。我的意思是這是一個非常高的兩位數。我會說沒有——我們沒有聽到任何問題。我想說，對於一些較小的 DCE，可能存在關於訂閱的問題，但我們已經解決了這個問題。但我會說那些 - 從 9200 到 9600 的新產品並沒有放緩，而且增長率非常非常強勁。顯然，正如您所預料的那樣，他們所取代的舊產品正在減少。但我們沒有看到過渡有任何緩慢。它的速度很快——而且，我們在 Cat 9K 的早期斜坡上再次提到了這一點。但在這一點上，Cat 9K 佔 Campus 總切換的百分比是我們完成的任何過渡中最快的。

And if you look at the -- what Kelly talked about earlier with WiFi 6 beginning to ramp, that's a subscription model. Our Meraki business is a subscription model which is still growing very well. So I don't think the subscription model has anything to do with it. I just think in certain cases, some of our larger customers who are watching some of the things going on just decided to just take a pause and take a look at what's happening, and then I think they'll kick back in.

如果你看看——凱利之前談到的 WiFi 6 開始增加的情況，那就是訂閱模式。我們的 Meraki 業務是一種訂閱模式，該模式仍在快速增長。所以我認為訂閱模式與它沒有任何關係。我只是認為在某些情況下，我們的一些正在觀看正在發生的事情的大客戶只是決定暫停一下，看看發生了什麼，然後我認為他們會回來。

Tal Liani from Bank of America Securities.

美國銀行證券的 Tal Liani。

Yes. I want to ask you a broader question, and I will call it secular versus cyclical. Switching had a small cycle, short cycle with a new switch. There was growth acceleration. Now we see a decline overall in switching, and there's probably substitution between new and old. And routing is also declining. And the question I'm asking is, of the trends you see today, data center switching, Campus switching, routing, service providers, what is cyclical and what is secular, meaning when are we going to see a reversal -- or not when in terms of timing. What's going to drive, I should say -- what's going to drive a reversal of the trends in routing? What could drive a reversal in data centers and campuses? What are the things that could drive at least a cyclical growth from here or even secular growth kind of longer term?

是的。我想問你一個更廣泛的問題，我稱之為長期與週期性的問題。切換過一個小周期，短週期用一個新的切換。增長加速。現在我們看到整體轉換率下降，新舊之間可能存在替代。路由也在下降。我要問的問題是，在您今天看到的趨勢中，數據中心交換、園區交換、路由、服務提供商，什麼是周期性的，什麼是長期的，這意味著我們什麼時候會看到逆轉——或者什麼時候不會在時間方面。什麼會推動，我應該說 - 什麼會推動路由趨勢的逆轉？什麼可以推動數據中心和園區的逆轉？有哪些因素至少可以推動週期性增長，甚至是更長期的長期增長？

So Tal, it's great question. I think in the routing space simply it's the 5G backbone build-out that we've been talking about for a few years. Once that starts, I think -- given the percentage of our routing business that is attributed to service providers, I think that's the key as well as us winning these Cisco 8000 insertions that we have proof of concepts going on today with many of the large customers, both service provider and web-scale players. So I think that's that one.

所以塔爾，這是個很好的問題。我認為在路由領域，我們已經討論了幾年的 5G 骨幹網建設。一旦開始，我認為——考慮到我們路由業務的百分比歸因於服務提供商，我認為這是我們贏得這些 Cisco 8000 插入的關鍵，我們今天有許多大型的概念證明。客戶，包括服務提供商和網絡規模的參與者。所以我認為就是那個。

And I think on the Campus side, I just think that's a -- that's just a timing issue. I think that the growth we're seeing in the Catalyst 9000 is tremendous. And I think that customers that began to build out their refresh, given where we are as a percentage of the installed base that we have replaced, it's got a long road ahead of it. I think that the only reason that we saw a little slowdown is just because customers just decided to pause the deployments a bit. But I think that, that will come back when this uncertainty and the capital spending frees up.

我認為在校園方面，我只是認為這只是一個時間問題。我認為我們在 Catalyst 9000 中看到的增長是巨大的。而且我認為，考慮到我們在已更換的已安裝基礎中所佔的百分比，開始建立更新的客戶還有很長的路要走。我認為我們看到稍微放緩的唯一原因只是因為客戶只是決定稍微暫停部署。但我認為，當這種不確定性和資本支出釋放時，這種情況會回來。

And routing?

和路由？

Routing, I answered first with the SP, with the 5G backbone stuff because of how big a percentage service provider represents in our routing portfolio.

路由，我首先用 SP 和 5G 骨幹網的東西回答，因為服務提供商在我們的路由產品組合中所佔的比例很大。

Thanks, Tal.

謝謝，塔爾。

Meta Marshall from Morgan Stanley.

來自摩根士丹利的元馬歇爾。

Great. With subscriptions being 72% of software revenue, which you stated, I wondered if you kind of had an update as to how much of a headwind that kind of business model transition is. In the past, you kind of said a couple of hundred basis points. But just any -- directionally if that's still about right would be helpful.

偉大的。正如你所說，訂閱佔軟件收入的 72%，我想知道你是否有關於這種商業模式轉型的逆風有多大的更新。過去，你說的是幾百個基點。但是，如果這仍然是正確的，那麼任何方向性的都會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean, again, I think back a few years ago before we adopted the new revenue standards, it was a bigger impact. It was up to like 250 or 300 basis points with ASC 606. It's come back down to that 100 basis points. But at this point, we don't even talk about it that way because we've been ramping so quickly the entire portfolio to that. But at max, it would be, I'd say, 100 bps or so.

是的。我的意思是，再一次，我回想起幾年前我們採用新的收入標準之前，它的影響更大。 ASC 606 高達 250 或 300 個基點。現在又回到了 100 個基點。但在這一點上，我們甚至沒有那樣談論它，因為我們一直在如此迅速地提升整個投資組合。但最多，我會說，100 個基點左右。

Jim Fish from Piper Sandler.

來自 Piper Sandler 的 Jim Fish。

One part that we haven't talked about here today is on the security side. We have RSA coming up at the end of the month. So just wondering if we could double-click on where we are with Duo and Umbrella together as it seems like they're the biggest drivers of the business? Can you guys talk a little bit more about the contribution of these 2 specifically to the portfolio and how Umbrella specifically is impacting your adoption of secure SD-WAN versus some of the other vendors that are out there?

我們今天在這裡沒有討論的一部分是安全方面的。我們將在月底推出 RSA。所以只是想知道我們是否可以雙擊我們與 Duo 和 Umbrella 在一起的位置，因為它們似乎是業務的最大驅動力？你們能多談談這 2 個具體對產品組合的貢獻，以及 Umbrella 與其他一些供應商相比如何具體影響您採用安全 SD-WAN 嗎？

Yes. So I'll give you the sort of the qualitative answer, and Kelly can give you something on the data. But I think the secure SD-WAN is the solution that our customers are looking for. I mean they want the integration with their cloud gateways from their branches, and so it is a key differentiator for us. Our teams are working hard on continuing to build that out. And I think over the next couple of years, it will continue to -- it will be even more of a differentiator as we continue to get more and more integration between those 2 portfolios. Kelly?

是的。所以我會給你那種定性的答案，凱利可以給你一些關於數據的信息。但我認為安全的 SD-WAN 是我們的客戶正在尋找的解決方案。我的意思是他們希望從他們的分支機構集成他們的云網關，因此這對我們來說是一個關鍵的差異化因素。我們的團隊正在努力繼續構建它。而且我認為在接下來的幾年裡，它將繼續 - 隨著我們繼續在這兩個投資組合之間獲得越來越多的整合，它將變得更加與眾不同。凱莉？

Yes. No. I'd say that's absolutely right. And in terms of how important Umbrella and Duo are, they absolutely are the key growth drivers for us, the whole cloud security space for us and will continue to be so. And I'd say we recently launched our Security in a great way, which is just starting, and that will be all part of our cloud security portfolio as well, and we expect that to be a huge growth driver as well.

是的。不，我會說那是絕對正確的。就 Umbrella 和 Duo 的重要性而言，它們絕對是我們的主要增長動力，對我們來說是整個雲安全空間，並將繼續如此。我想說我們最近以一種很棒的方式推出了我們的安全性，這才剛剛開始，這也將成為我們雲安全產品組合的一部分，我們預計這也將成為一個巨大的增長動力。

All right. Well, let me just thank everyone for joining us today, and I'll just recap by saying that while we have seen a bit of a pause, we actually feel really good. The conversations I have with our customers, I mean, all of the things they're trying to do, I believe, our technology is at the heart of. Whether it's rebuilding their applications, whether securing their data, transforming their infrastructure in this new era or changing their user experience as well as the way they interface with their customers, I think that we're in a very good position to help them do that, and we feel good about where we are.

好的。好吧，讓我感謝大家今天加入我們，我想回顧一下，雖然我們看到了一些停頓，但實際上我們感覺非常好。我與客戶的對話，我的意思是，他們試圖做的所有事情，我相信，我們的技術是核心。無論是重建他們的應用程序，保護他們的數據，在這個新時代改造他們的基礎設施，還是改變他們的用戶體驗以及他們與客戶互動的方式，我認為我們都能夠很好地幫助他們做到這一點，我們對自己的處境感覺良好。

So thank you all for joining us today, and we'll look forward to catching up with you next quarter.

因此，感謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待下個季度與您見面。

Thanks, Chuck. Just to wrap the call, Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal 2020 third quarter results, will be on Wednesday, May 13, 2020, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

謝謝，查克。最後，思科將於美國東部時間 2020 年 5 月 13 日星期三下午 1:30 召開下一次季度收益電話會議，該電話會議將反映我們 2020 財年第三季度的業績。太平洋時間下午 4:30東部時間。

Again, I'd like to remind the audience that in light of Regulation FD, Cisco's policy is not to comment on its financial guidance during the quarter, unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

再次，我想提醒聽眾，根據 FD 法規，思科的政策是不評論其本季度的財務指導，除非通過明確的公開披露來完成。

We now plan to close the call. If there are any further questions, feel free to contact Cisco's Investor Relations group, and we thank you very much for joining today's call.

我們現在計劃結束通話。如果還有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科的投資者關係小組，我們非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (800) 839-1160. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (402) 998-0925. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話，可以撥打 (800) 839-1160。對於來自美國境外的參與者，請撥打 (402) 998-0925。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連接。