思科 (CSCO) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2020 財年第一季度財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。如有異議，可斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。女士，您可以開始了。

Thanks, Michelle. Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chairman and CEO; and Kelly Kramer, our CFO.

謝謝，米歇爾。歡迎大家參加思科 2020 財年第一季度季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Chuck Robbins 也加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Kelly Kramer。

By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call.

到目前為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。電話會議後，將在我們網站的“投資者關係”部分提供相應的帶幻燈片的網絡廣播，包括補充信息。

As is customary in Q1, we have made certain reclassifications to prior period amounts to conform to the current period's presentation. Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website.

按照第一季度的慣例，我們對前期金額進行了某些重新分類，以符合本期的列報。損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節信息、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務信息也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的“財務信息”部分找到。

Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders, unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be made on a year-over-year basis.

在整個電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並且我們將討論收入方面的產品結果以及產品訂單方面的地理和客戶結果。在本次電話會議中進行的所有比較都將按年進行。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the second quarter of fiscal 2020. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent report on Form 10-K, which identifies important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2020 財年第二季度提供的指導。它們受制於我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性，特別是關於 10-K 表格的最新報告，該報告確定了可能導致實際結果與報告中包含的結果大不相同的重要風險因素。前瞻性陳述。

With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter, unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

關於指南，另請參閱本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細信息。除非通過明確的公開披露，否則思科不會在本季度對其財務指導發表評論。

In Q2 of fiscal 2019, we completed the sale of our SPVSS business and, accordingly, had no revenue or expense from that business in Q1 fiscal 2020. As such, all of the revenue, non-GAAP and product orders information we will be discussing is normalized to exclude the SPVSS business from our historical results. We have provided historical financial information for the SPVSS business in the slides that accompany this call and on our website to help to understand these impacts.

在 2019 財年第二季度，我們完成了 SPVSS 業務的出售，因此，在 2020 財年第一季度，該業務沒有收入或支出。因此，我們將討論的所有收入、非 GAAP 和產品訂單信息都經過標準化處理，以將 SPVSS 業務排除在我們的歷史業績之外。我們在本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和我們的網站上提供了 SPVSS 業務的歷史財務信息，以幫助了解這些影響。

The guidance we provided during our Q4 earnings call had been normalized in the same way.

我們在第四季度財報電話會議上提供的指導已經以同樣的方式標準化。

I will now turn it over to Chuck.

我現在將把它交給查克。

Thanks, Marilyn. We delivered a solid quarter against a challenging macro environment. While we're pleased with this performance, we're most focused on the environment as we move forward. We'll discuss this more in a moment.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境下，我們實現了穩健的季度業績。雖然我們對這種表現感到滿意，但在我們前進的過程中，我們最關注的是環境。稍後我們將對此進行更多討論。

What's happening inside Cisco, regardless of the macro, is an unrelenting focus on driving innovation, transforming our business and exceeding our customers' expectations. In Q1, as you've seen, we had revenue growth of 2% and double-digit non-GAAP earnings per share growth. We also delivered strong non-GAAP gross margins and non-GAAP operating margins, along with solid operating cash flow. We continue to invest in innovation and expand our market opportunities, while maintaining our commitment to maximizing shareholder return.

無論宏觀環境如何，思科內部正在發生的事情是不懈地專注於推動創新、轉變我們的業務並超越客戶的期望。正如您所見，在第一季度，我們的收入增長了 2%，非 GAAP 每股收益增長了兩位數。我們還實現了強勁的非 GAAP 毛利率和非 GAAP 營業利潤率，以及穩健的經營現金流。我們繼續投資於創新並擴大我們的市場機會，同時保持我們對股東回報最大化的承諾。

Over the last year, many of you have heard me talk about the resilience of the global macro environment. However, on our last earnings call, we indicated that we had begun to see some weakness, and that weakness continued throughout Q1 and was more broad-based. While the main challenges continue to be service provider and emerging markets, this quarter, we also saw relative weakness in enterprise and commercial. Despite these headwinds and because of key decisions we made 4 years ago to change our business model, we remain well positioned to capitalize on the tremendous opportunities across cloud, automation, 5G, Security and Collaboration.

在過去的一年裡，你們中的許多人都聽過我談論全球宏觀環境的彈性。然而，在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們表示我們已經開始看到一些疲軟，而且這種疲軟在整個第一季度持續存在，而且範圍更廣。雖然主要挑戰仍然來自服務提供商和新興市場，但本季度，我們還看到企業和商業領域相對疲軟。儘管存在這些不利因素，並且由於我們 4 年前做出了改變業務模式的關鍵決定，我們仍然處於有利地位，可以利用雲、自動化、5G、安全和協作領域的巨大機遇。

Our transition to software continues to progress, and we are on track with where we said we would be at the end of fiscal year 2020. This transition to software not only aligns to how our customers want to consume our technology but we also believe it will lessen the impact of macroeconomic shifts in the future.

我們向軟件的過渡繼續取得進展，我們正朝著我們所說的 2020 財年末的目標邁進。這種向軟件的轉變不僅符合我們的客戶希望如何使用我們的技術，而且我們相信這將減輕未來宏觀經濟變化的影響。

Despite the current uncertainty, our innovation pipeline remains strong. At our annual partner summit last week, we announced several exciting additions to our portfolio, including network automation and analytics, cloud-based networking, Collaboration as well as new Security capabilities. Over the next couple of months, you will see us deliver even more innovation to help our customers achieve their business objectives.

儘管目前存在不確定性，但我們的創新渠道依然強勁。在上週的年度合作夥伴峰會上，我們宣布了多項激動人心的產品組合新增功能，包括網絡自動化和分析、基於雲的網絡、協作以及新的安全功能。在接下來的幾個月裡，您將看到我們提供更多創新來幫助我們的客戶實現他們的業務目標。

Now I'd like to share some recent highlights across the business. Our Enterprise Networking portfolio continued to grow as customers increasingly adopt our intent-based networking portfolio, spanning our Catalyst 9000 family of switches, Meraki cloud-based platforms and next-generation data center solutions. Our customers today are running applications across multiple cloud environments, and this shift requires a fundamental change in how they build their networks and their security architectures.

現在，我想分享整個行業的一些近期亮點。隨著客戶越來越多地採用我們基於意圖的網絡產品組合，我們的企業網絡產品組合繼續增長，涵蓋我們的 Catalyst 9000 系列交換機、Meraki 基於雲的平台和下一代數據中心解決方案。今天，我們的客戶正在跨多個雲環境運行應用程序，這種轉變需要從根本上改變他們構建網絡和安全架構的方式。

To help them achieve this, we are automating connectivity across any cloud. A good example of this is our recently announced partnership with Microsoft to help our customers improve network connectivity with the highest level of security, from branch offices to cloud-based applications, by integrating Cisco's SD-WAN solution with Azure's virtual WAN.

為了幫助他們實現這一目標，我們正在實現跨任何云的自動化連接。這方面的一個很好的例子是我們最近宣布與微軟建立合作夥伴關係，通過將思科的 SD-WAN 解決方案與 Azure 的虛擬 WAN 集成，幫助我們的客戶以最高級別的安全性改善網絡連接，從分支機構到基於雲的應用程序。

To further extend our enterprise networking leadership, we continue to expand our cloud-managed network and security offerings. Last week, we also announced an expansion of our Meraki portfolio, including continued integration between Meraki's Dashboard and Cisco's Switching portfolio as well as innovative new LTE-based WAN connectivity solutions. We believe our planned acquisition of Acacia will also play a critical role in building upon the strength of our switching, routing and optical networking portfolio. By utilizing our innovations across silicon, software and optics, we are enabling our customers to transform their networks.

為了進一步擴大我們在企業網絡方面的領導地位，我們繼續擴展我們的雲託管網絡和安全產品。上週，我們還宣布擴展我們的 Meraki 產品組合，包括繼續集成 Meraki 的儀表板和思科的交換產品組合，以及基於 LTE 的創新 WAN 連接解決方案。我們相信，我們計劃收購 Acacia 也將在增強我們交換、路由和光網絡產品組合的實力方面發揮關鍵作用。通過利用我們在矽、軟件和光學領域的創新，我們正在幫助我們的客戶改變他們的網絡。

Now let's turn to Security, which is always at the heart of everything we do. It's deeply integrated into the fabric of our entire portfolio to help secure our customers' data and address their modern application in multi-cloud environments. Cybersecurity continues to be a top concern for our customers as they evolve their enterprise architectures to address the challenges of an ever-changing threat environment.

現在讓我們轉向安全性，它始終是我們所做工作的核心。它已深入集成到我們整個產品組合的結構中，以幫助保護我們客戶的數據並解決他們在多雲環境中的現代應用程序。網絡安全仍然是我們客戶最關心的問題，因為他們不斷發展企業架構以應對不斷變化的威脅環境帶來的挑戰。

We have the most comprehensive integrated cybersecurity platform in the market, designed to enable our customers to securely connect any application running on any cloud and delivered to any device. We have been building an expansive Zero Trust framework for securing access across the workforce, the workplace and the workload. As the leader in Zero Trust, our customers are increasingly turning to us to help them extend simple and trusted access to their users in hybrid and multi-cloud environments.

我們擁有市場上最全面的集成網絡安全平台，旨在使我們的客戶能夠安全地連接在任何云上運行並交付給任何設備的任何應用程序。我們一直在構建一個廣泛的零信任框架，以確保跨員工、工作場所和工作負載的訪問安全。作為零信任領域的領導者，我們的客戶越來越多地求助於我們，以幫助他們在混合雲和多雲環境中擴展對用戶的簡單且可信的訪問。

This is leading to strong uptake of Duo, our identity access management solution, which provides continuous authentication, ensuring the right people are able to access the right applications.

這導致我們的身份訪問管理解決方案 Duo 得到廣泛採用，它提供持續的身份驗證，確保正確的人能夠訪問正確的應用程序。

To further reduce complexity in our customers' environments, we recently announced new enhanced capabilities in our firewall, breach defense, endpoint protection and Talos incident response solutions. These innovations are designed to provide greater threat protection and enhance the benefits of our platform.

為了進一步降低客戶環境的複雜性，我們最近宣布了防火牆、漏洞防禦、端點保護和 Talos 事件響應解決方案的新增強功能。這些創新旨在提供更好的威脅保護並增強我們平台的優勢。

We also continue to leverage AI and ML capabilities through our industry-leading threat intelligence platform, Talos, along with Stealthwatch and Umbrella, to bring our customers simplicity, visibility and insight that no other company can deliver.

我們還通過我們行業領先的威脅情報平台 Talos 以及 Stealthwatch 和 Umbrella 繼續利用 AI 和 ML 功能，為我們的客戶帶來其他公司無法提供的簡單性、可見性和洞察力。

Moving to Applications. We are rapidly becoming the center of our customer strategy for empowering teams and increasing productivity as 95% of the Fortune 500 use our Collaboration portfolio. This is leading to the solid performance in our business as a growing number of customers adopt our unique solutions.

移動到應用程序。隨著 95% 的財富 500 強企業使用我們的協作產品組合，我們正在迅速成為我們增強團隊能力和提高生產力的客戶戰略的中心。隨著越來越多的客戶採用我們獨特的解決方案，這導致我們的業務表現穩健。

During the quarter, we expanded our offerings to empower our customers for the modern workplace, protecting data from ever-increasing cyber threats and delivering highly secure productivity and collaboration solutions. A good example of this is our next-generation WebEx, our cloud-based team collaboration platform, enabling better teamwork while helping users stay secure with integrated end-to-end encryption.

在本季度，我們擴展了我們的產品，為我們的客戶提供現代工作場所的支持，保護數據免受不斷增加的網絡威脅，並提供高度安全的生產力和協作解決方案。這方面的一個很好的例子是我們的下一代 WebEx，這是我們基於雲的團隊協作平台，可實現更好的團隊合作，同時通過集成的端到端加密幫助用戶保持安全。

We also launched single platform, Advantage, delivering all collaboration workloads, including calling, messaging, meeting and contact center from a single platform.

我們還推出了單一平台 Advantage，從單一平台交付所有協作工作負載，包括呼叫、消息傳遞、會議和聯絡中心。

In addition, we announced our new Cisco Webex Edge for devices as well as hardware-as-a-service options for phones, desk and room-based video systems. We are raising the bar for the industry by continuing to drive innovation in our expanding family of cognitive collaboration offers with AI and ML integrated capabilities.

此外，我們還發布了用於設備的新 Cisco Webex Edge，以及用於電話、桌面和基於房間的視頻系統的硬件即服務選項。通過在我們不斷擴大的具有 AI 和 ML 集成功能的認知協作產品系列中繼續推動創新，我們正在提高行業標準。

During the quarter, we acquired CloudCherry, a market-leading customer experience management solution, to augment our contact center portfolio with cloud analytics and AI to increase productivity and enhance user experiences.

本季度，我們收購了市場領先的客戶體驗管理解決方案 CloudCherry，通過雲分析和 AI 增強我們的聯絡中心產品組合，從而提高生產力並增強用戶體驗。

We also achieved a strong quarter in our AppDynamics business with yet another quarter of double-digit growth. Our investments in AppDynamics have made Cisco the leader in application monitoring and analytics. We are helping our customers transform their digital businesses through our comprehensive portfolio of solutions that turns data into actionable real-time insights by linking application performance to business outcomes.

我們的 AppDynamics 業務也取得了強勁的季度業績，又實現了兩位數的增長。我們對 AppDynamics 的投資使思科成為應用程序監控和分析領域的領導者。我們正在通過我們全面的解決方案組合幫助我們的客戶轉變他們的數字業務，這些解決方案通過將應用程序性能與業務成果聯繫起來，將數據轉化為可操作的實時洞察力。

To summarize, while we remain in a challenging macroeconomic environment, I'm proud of our progress, both in our own continued transformation and in how we are empowering customers to drive their own transformation and shift to the cloud. We have a clear vision and strategy and are executing well against it to capture the many opportunities ahead. I feel great about our portfolio, and I believe fully in our customers' commitment to our technology solutions.

總而言之，儘管我們仍處於充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中，但我為我們取得的進步感到自豪，無論是在我們自身的持續轉型中，還是在我們如何幫助客戶推動自身轉型並轉向雲端方面。我們有一個清晰的願景和戰略，並且正在很好地執行它以抓住未來的許多機會。我對我們的產品組合感覺很好，我完全相信我們的客戶對我們技術解決方案的承諾。

We will also continue to invest in organic and inorganic innovation to position Cisco for the long term. We also remain committed to managing our business to ensure we drive the greatest long-term value for our customers, employees, partners and shareholders.

我們還將繼續投資於有機和無機創新，以長期定位思科。我們還繼續致力於管理我們的業務，以確保我們為我們的客戶、員工、合作夥伴和股東創造最大的長期價值。

Now let me turn it over to Kelly.

現在讓我把它交給凱利。

Thanks, Chuck. I'll start with a summary of our financial results for the quarter, followed by the guidance for Q2.

謝謝，查克。我將從本季度的財務業績摘要開始，然後是第二季度的指導。

Our overall Q1 results were solid. We executed well with revenue growth and strong margins, net income and EPS. Total revenue was $13.2 billion, up 2%. Our non-GAAP operating margin rate was 33.6%, up 1.3 points. Non-GAAP net income was $3.6 billion, up 5%. And non-GAAP EPS was $0.84, up 12%.

我們第一季度的整體業績是穩健的。我們在收入增長和強勁的利潤率、淨收入和每股收益方面表現良好。總收入為 132 億美元，增長 2%。我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 33.6%，上升 1.3 個百分點。非 GAAP 淨收入為 36 億美元，增長 5%。非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.84 美元，增長 12%。

Let me provide some more detail on our Q1 revenue. Total product revenue was up 1% to $9.9 billion. Infrastructure Platforms was down 1%. All of the businesses were up except for routing. Switching had growth in both campus and data center with the continued ramp of the Cat 9K and strength of the Nexus 9K. Wireless grew, driven by Meraki. Data center had solid growth, led by HyperFlex. Routing declined due to weakness in service provider.

讓我提供更多關於我們第一季度收入的細節。產品總收入增長 1% 至 99 億美元。基礎設施平台下跌 1%。除了路由之外，所有業務都正常運行。隨著 Cat 9K 的持續增長和 Nexus 9K 的強大，交換在園區和數據中心都有增長。在 Meraki 的推動下，無線業務發展壯大。在 HyperFlex 的帶動下，數據中心實現了穩健增長。由於服務提供商的疲軟，路由下降。

Applications was up 6%, with growth across all the businesses, including double-digit growth in AppDynamics. Security was up 22% with strong performance in identity and access, advanced threat, unified threat and web security.

應用程序增長了 6%，所有業務都有增長，包括 AppDynamics 的兩位數增長。安全性增長了 22%，在身份和訪問、高級威脅、統一威脅和 Web 安全方面表現強勁。

Service revenue was up 4%, driven by software and solution support. And we continue to transform our business, delivering more software offerings and driving more subscriptions. Software subscriptions were 71% of total software revenue, up 12 points year-over-year.

在軟件和解決方案支持的推動下，服務收入增長了 4%。我們繼續轉變我們的業務，提供更多的軟件產品並推動更多的訂閱。軟件訂閱佔軟件總收入的 71%，同比增長 12 個百分點。

When we look at the impact of acquisitions on our Q1 results year-over-year, there was a 50 basis point positive impact on revenue. In terms of orders in Q1, total products orders were down 4%. Looking at the geographies, Americas and EMEA were each down 3%, and APJC was down 5%. Total emerging markets were down 13%, with the BRICS plus Mexico down 26%. In our customer segments, public sector was up 6%, enterprise and commercial were each down 5%, and service provider was down 13%. Remaining performance obligations, or RPO, at the end of Q1 were $24.9 billion, up 11%. RPO is our total deferred revenue plus unbilled deferred and represents total committed noncancelable future revenue.

當我們查看收購對我們第一季度業績的同比影響時，對收入產生了 50 個基點的積極影響。在第一季度的訂單方面，產品訂單總量下降了 4%。從地區來看，美洲和 EMEA 各下降 3%，APJC 下降 5%。新興市場總量下降了 13%，其中金磚國家和墨西哥下降了 26%。在我們的客戶群中，公共部門增長 6%，企業和商業各下降 5%，服務提供商下降 13%。第一季度末剩餘履約義務 (RPO) 為 249 億美元，增長 11%。RPO 是我們的總遞延收入加上未開票的遞延收入，代表承諾的不可取消的未來總收入。

From a non-GAAP profitability perspective, total Q1 gross margin was 65.9%, up 1.7 points; product gross margin was 66.1%, up 2.5 points; and service gross margin was 65.4%, down 0.4 points.

從非美國通用會計準則盈利能力來看，Q1總毛利率為65.9%，上升1.7個百分點；產品毛利率為66.1%，上升2.5個百分點；服務毛利率為65.4%，下降0.4個百分點。

In terms of the bottom line from a GAAP perspective, Q1 net income was $2.9 billion and EPS was $0.68.

從 GAAP 的角度來看，第一季度淨收入為 29 億美元，每股收益為 0.68 美元。

We ended Q1 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $28 billion. Operating cash flow was $3.6 billion, down 5%. Normalized for the $400 million legal settlement we received from Arista in Q1 of fiscal '19, operating cash flow was up 7%.

第一季度末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 280 億美元。經營現金流為 36 億美元，下降 5%。對於我們在 19 財年第一季度從 Arista 收到的 4 億美元法律和解，正常化後，運營現金流增長了 7%。

From a capital allocation perspective, we returned $2.3 billion to shareholders during the quarter that was comprised of $0.8 billion of share repurchases and $1.5 billion for our quarterly dividend.

從資本配置的角度來看，我們在本季度向股東返還了 23 億美元，其中包括 8 億美元的股票回購和 15 億美元的季度股息。

We continue to invest organically and inorganically in our innovation pipeline. During Q1, we closed 4 acquisitions, all in the Applications area. These moves are consistent with our strategy of increasing investment in innovation and R&D for our growth areas.

我們繼續對我們的創新管道進行有機和無機投資。在第一季度，我們完成了 4 次收購，全部在應用領域。這些舉措符合我們增加對增長領域創新和研發投資的戰略。

To summarize, we had a solid Q1. We executed well with top line growth and strong profitability. We're seeing the returns on the investments we're making in innovation and driving the shift to more software and subscriptions, delivering long-term growth and shareholder value.

總而言之，我們有一個可靠的第一季度。我們在營收增長和強勁的盈利能力方面表現出色。我們正在看到我們在創新和推動向更多軟件和訂閱的轉變方面所做投資的回報，從而實現長期增長和股東價值。

Let me reiterate our guidance for the second quarter of fiscal '20. This guidance includes the type of forward-looking information that Marilyn referred to earlier. We expect revenue to decline in the range of minus 3% to minus 5% year-over-year. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin rate to be in the range of 64.5% to 65.5%. The non-GAAP operating margin rate is expected to be in the range of 32.5% to 33.5%, and the non-GAAP tax provision rate is expected to be 20%. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.75 to $0.77.

讓我重申我們對 20 財年第二季度的指導。本指南包括 Marilyn 之前提到的前瞻性信息類型。我們預計收入將同比下降 3% 至 5%。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率將在 64.5% 至 65.5% 的範圍內。非 GAAP 營業利潤率預計在 32.5% 至 33.5% 之間，非 GAAP 稅收撥備率預計為 20%。非 GAAP 每股收益預計在 0.75 美元至 0.77 美元之間。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

我現在將把它轉回瑪麗蓮，這樣我們就可以進入問答環節了。

Thanks, Kelly. Michelle, let's go ahead and open the line for questions. (Operator Instructions) Michelle, I'll turn it over to you.

謝謝，凱利。米歇爾，讓我們開始提問吧。（操作員說明）米歇爾，我會把它交給你。

Ittai Kidron from Oppenheimer.

來自奧本海默的 Ittai Kidron。

Chuck, maybe I'll -- you can kind of walk us through a little bit, kind of how the quarter evolved as far as the demand pattern. You've talked about weakness became, first of all, more broad-based, but also started into the enterprise and commercial. Any more color you could give us there, either from a product or regional standpoint?

查克，也許我會——你可以稍微介紹一下這個季度是如何隨著需求模式而演變的。你談到的弱點首先變得更廣泛，但也開始進入企業和商業領域。從產品或區域的角度來看，你能給我們更多的顏色嗎？

And with regards to your working assumptions into the next quarter, into the January quarter, is it your assumption that the intensity of the softness you're seeing right now will just take as is or getting worse? Help us think about the framework you have in mind when you give the guidance.

關於您對下一季度、一月份季度的工作假設，您是否假設您現在看到的疲軟強度將保持原樣或變得更糟？幫助我們思考您在提供指導時所考慮的框架。

Okay. Thanks, Ittai. So yes, what we -- if you recall on the last earnings call, I did say that we began to see some early signs of some macro impact towards the end of Q4. And then we just basically saw that continue throughout the quarter. And as obviously, the entire quarter was worse than we had expected when we began. And it was fairly broad-based. It was -- I mean, Kelly just read the regional numbers off from an orders perspective. So you saw negative 3, negative 3, negative 5 from Americas, EMEA and Asia.

好的。謝謝，一泰。所以是的，我們 - 如果你還記得上次財報電話會議，我確實說過我們開始看到一些宏觀影響的早期跡像到第四季度末。然後我們基本上看到整個季度都在繼續。很明顯，整個季度都比我們開始時預期的要糟糕。它的基礎相當廣泛。這是——我的意思是，凱利只是從訂單的角度閱讀了區域數字。所以你看到了來自美洲、EMEA 和亞洲的負面 3、負面 3、負面 5。

I'd say, across the technology areas, it was pretty broad-based. The segments that we saw, public sector continued to be strong, but the rest were -- enterprise commercial did weaken. Service provider in emerging markets, which were stressed last quarter, were about the same. We had shown the ability to offset that with strength in these -- in commercial and enterprise and public sector. And when those weakened, obviously, this quarter, that impacted our ability to offset them.

我想說，在技術領域，它的基礎非常廣泛。我們看到的部分，公共部門繼續保持強勁，但其餘部分 - 企業商業確實疲軟。上個季度受到壓力的新興市場服務提供商大致相同。我們已經展示了在商業、企業和公共部門中用實力抵消這種影響的能力。當這些減弱時，顯然，在本季度，這影響了我們抵消它們的能力。

And while I won't let my team make this excuse, it also had to happen in a quarter where we did have incredibly tough compares. So this is the worst quarter it could have occurred for us. So -- but that's really what we saw.

雖然我不會讓我的團隊找這個藉口，但它也必鬚髮生在我們確實進行了非常艱難的比較的一個季度。所以這是我們可能遇到的最糟糕的季度。所以——但這確實是我們所看到的。

As far as what we've modeled going forward, we're -- we've effectively assumed that it will stay as is. I don't think -- we haven't modeled any material further deterioration or improvement, I think, in what we put forward today. Kelly, is it fair?

就我們對未來的建模而言，我們 - 我們已經有效地假設它將保持原樣。我不認為 - 我們沒有模擬任何材料進一步惡化或改善，我認為，在我們今天提出的內容中。凱利，這公平嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

Chuck, thanks for the detail on the last question. I just wanted to get a sense of what you're hearing from your customers in terms of, are you hearing that if some of the trade aspects of -- that are depressing the macro get resolved, do you expect some of them to come back in terms of spending? What are you hearing from your customers? And if you can give us an update on the order trends in China as well, that would be helpful.

Chuck，感謝您提供關於最後一個問題的詳細信息。我只是想了解一下您從客戶那裡聽到的情況，您是否聽說過，如果一些貿易方面的問題——抑制宏觀經濟的問題得到解決，您是否期望其中一些會回來在支出方面？您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？如果您也可以向我們提供有關中國訂單趨勢的最新信息，那將會很有幫助。

Samik, thanks for the question. So from the customers, it feels like there's not a broad-based loud noise out there. It feels like there's a bit of a pause. We saw things like conversion rates on our pipeline were lower than normal, which says that things didn't close the way we would have historically seen it. We didn't see any incremental loss ratios. It was really just stuff slipping. We saw some large deals get done but got done smaller. Kelly and I were involved in a couple personally that we saw that when we began talking to the customers about the transactions, and by the time they got done, they were smaller than when we had begun. So that happened. And then we just saw deals that slipped. And so we saw a little bit of all that.

Samik，謝謝你的提問。因此，從客戶的角度來看，感覺那裡沒有廣泛的噪音。感覺有點停頓。我們看到管道上的轉化率低於正常水平，這表明事情並沒有像我們以往看到的那樣結束。我們沒有看到任何增量損失率。這真的只是東西滑倒了。我們看到一些大交易已經完成，但規模較小。凱利和我親自參與了一對夫婦，我們看到當我們開始與客戶談論交易時，當他們完成時，他們比我們開始時要小。事情就這樣發生了。然後我們就看到交易下滑了。所以我們看到了所有這些。

But it's not -- I'd say we also had our teams telling us that the approval process in several customers across a different number of industries were changing, which is usually indicative of, hey, let's add another signature requirement because we want to just put another set of eyes on every expenditure right now.

但這不是——我想說我們的團隊也告訴我們，不同行業的幾個客戶的審批流程正在發生變化，這通常表明，嘿，讓我們添加另一個簽名要求，因為我們只想現在用另一雙眼睛審視每一筆支出。

So those are the things we've seen. And unfortunately, I've done this long enough that I've seen it before, so you recognize it when you see it, and that's really effectively what we saw during the quarter.

所以這些就是我們所看到的。不幸的是，我已經做了足夠長的時間，以至於我以前見過它，所以當你看到它時你就會認出它，這就是我們在本季度看到的非常有效的情況。

And China, Kelly, was -- exact number.

凱利，中國是——確切的數字。

China continues its decline. It was down 31% versus last quarter. It was down 26%. So the momentum is continuing to just accelerate the decline in China.

中國繼續衰落。與上一季度相比下降了 31%。它下降了 26%。因此，這種勢頭正在繼續加速中國的衰落。

Paul Silverstein from Cowen.

來自 Cowen 的 Paul Silverstein。

Kelly, if you could tell us the pricing. I know we're going to see it in the Q, but if you could tell us the rate of price erosion, if there was any change?

凱利，如果你能告訴我們定價。我知道我們會在 Q 中看到它，但如果你能告訴我們價格下降的速度，是否有任何變化？

And then, if I did the math correctly on OpEx, it looks like your guidance would suggest around $3.8 billion for the January quarter. That would be down $400 million sequentially and $150 million year-over-year. Do I have that right? Is that the way you're thinking about it?

然後，如果我對 OpEx 進行了正確的數學計算，看起來你的指導建議 1 月季度約為 38 億美元。這將比上一季度減少 4 億美元，同比減少 1.5 億美元。我有這個權利嗎？你是這麼想的嗎？

And related to that, how should we think about OpEx going forward throughout the year? How do you plan to manage expenses given the less-than-expected revenue outlook?

與此相關的是，我們應該如何看待全年的運營支出？鑑於收入前景低於預期，您打算如何管理費用？

Yes. So let me take those. So on price, we had a really very, very good quarter on price. It is the lowest in some time in terms of the least amount of price erosion. So from an impact on our product gross margin rate, Paul, which is I know the metric you're looking at, it was only 40 basis points.

是的。所以讓我拿走那些。所以在價格上，我們有一個非常非常好的價格季度。就最少的價格侵蝕而言，它是一段時間以來最低的。因此，從對我們產品毛利率的影響來看，保羅，我知道你正在看的指標，它只有 40 個基點。

Now I will say that's great. And I think we've done a lot of great things on our pricing. For example, we've been selectively -- where we have price elasticity, we'll raise prices and we've been effective on driving some product transitions and we've been realizing that benefit. I will say, we are starting to see -- we didn't feel the impact of it this quarter, but we are starting to see pricing pressure in the server market that we expect to accelerate next quarter, but that's, of course, included in the guide. But for Q1, it was a very, very strong pricing quarter, which has been fantastic.

現在我會說那太好了。而且我認為我們在定價方面做了很多很棒的事情。例如，我們一直有選擇地——在我們有價格彈性的地方，我們會提高價格，我們在推動一些產品轉型方面一直很有效，而且我們已經意識到了這一好處。我會說，我們開始看到 - 本季度我們沒有感受到它的影響，但我們開始看到服務器市場的定價壓力，我們預計下個季度會加速，但這當然包括在內在指南中。但對於第一季度，這是一個非常非常強勁的定價季度，這非常棒。

From an OpEx perspective, if you play down the ranges I just gave you, it does show that OpEx will be down on how you're thinking about it. And yes, we are managing it like we always do, which is balancing the investments we're making, plus driving trade-off and cost out. So you're looking at it correctly, and that's what we're driving it to.

從 OpEx 的角度來看，如果你淡化我剛剛給你的範圍，它確實表明 OpEx 會降低你的想法。是的，我們像往常一樣管理它，平衡我們正在進行的投資，以及推動權衡和成本。所以你正在正確地看待它，這就是我們正在推動它的方向。

Kelly, the real question, can operating margin go up with revenue being slightly down? Can you drive higher operating margin?

凱利，真正的問題是，營業利潤率能否在收入略有下降的情況下上升？你能推動更高的營業利潤率嗎？

So let me break down the margins overall because I think that is the key question. I would say our margins are -- there's positives certainly driving the margin increase that you're seeing, and you're seeing that in the guide. On the positive side, we are definitely feeling the positive impact of the software mix on our margins. So that is driving benefit to us, just purely on the increased software content that we have and what we're selling. So that's helping tremendously.

因此，讓我分解一下總體利潤率，因為我認為這是關鍵問題。我會說我們的利潤率是 - 肯定有積極因素推動您看到的利潤率增長，並且您在指南中看到了這一點。從積極的方面來看，我們確實感受到了軟件組合對我們利潤率的積極影響。因此，這給我們帶來了好處，純粹是因為我們擁有的軟件內容和銷售的軟件內容有所增加。所以這有很大幫助。

I do think we're going to see some more pricing erosion as we go forward for some of the things that are specific, like, of course, the server market's going to get tougher now that the DRAM prices are going down. So that will be a little bit of a negative next quarter, but that's okay. And then, of course, we are still benefiting from the DRAM price decrease related to the server market that we started to feel the benefit of a couple of quarters ago. It's a very large impact this quarter, favorable to us. That will -- I expect to continue next quarter. But after that, as you recall, we started seeing the benefit in Q3 of '19. So that will become less of a year-over-year favorability for us. And then we'll see what happens to pricing there.

我確實認為，隨著某些特定事物的發展，我們將看到更多的價格侵蝕，例如，當然，由於 DRAM 價格下降，服務器市場將變得更加艱難。所以下個季度會有一點負面影響，但這沒關係。然後，當然，我們仍然受益於與服務器市場相關的 DRAM 價格下降，我們在幾個季度前開始感受到這種好處。這個季度的影響非常大，對我們有利。這將 - 我希望下個季度繼續。但在那之後，正如您所記得的，我們開始看到 19 年第三季度的好處。因此，這對我們來說將變得不那麼受歡迎。然後我們將看看那裡的定價會發生什麼。

So net-net to your question, I don't think it will stay at this OM rate that we delivered in Q1, which is the highest it's been, because of those key things, but the underlying trends are all going in the right direction with software that's benefiting it and driving the favorable mix and then the real strong product management we're doing around managing price elasticity.

所以對於你的問題，我不認為它會保持在我們在第一季度交付的這個 OM 率，這是它一直以來的最高水平，因為這些關鍵因素，但潛在趨勢都在朝著正確的方向發展使用使它受益並推動有利組合的軟件，然後我們圍繞管理價格彈性進行真正強大的產品管理。

James Faucette from Morgan Stanley Investment Research.

摩根士丹利投資研究部的 James Faucette。

I'm wondering, Chuck or Kelly, or maybe both of you, if you can talk a little bit about the order growth versus your current expectations for economic development. Clearly, Chuck, as you pointed out, and Kelly, the -- we saw weakness kind of across the board in orders. But if we think about kind of a relatively flat environment from here going forward, as you said you're forecasting on, how long does it take us to start to get to more of a flattish and then even recovering order book in that kind of scenario and environment?

我想知道，Chuck 或 Kelly，或者你們兩個，是否可以談談訂單增長與您當前對經濟發展的預期。很明顯，查克，正如你所指出的，凱利，我們在訂單中看到了全面的弱點。但是，如果我們考慮從現在開始的一種相對平坦的環境，正如你所說的你預測的那樣，我們需要多長時間才能開始變得更加平坦，然後甚至在那種情況下恢復訂單場景和環境？

Kelly, I'll let you handle that.

凱利，我會讓你處理的。

Thanks, boss. James, that's a tough question, right? I mean, I'd say, certainly, these headwinds we have right now are going to be with us, I think, in the short term, right? And again, whether it's just -- I don't see any catalyst to change the momentum right now with the uncertainty and business confidence in the macro, like talk -- like Chuck talked about. I do think, from a portfolio perspective, obviously, we feel good about the portfolio. And you're seeing still, regardless of the macro, the improvement we're making on the software metrics. That continues regardless.

謝謝老闆。詹姆斯，這是一個棘手的問題，對吧？我的意思是，我想說，當然，我們現在遇到的這些不利因素將在短期內與我們同在，對嗎？再一次，無論是——我看不出有任何催化劑可以改變這種勢頭，因為不確定性和商業對宏觀的信心，比如談話——就像查克所說的那樣。我確實認為，從投資組合的角度來看，顯然我們對投資組合感覺良好。而且你仍然看到，無論宏觀如何，我們在軟件指標上所做的改進。無論如何，這種情況仍在繼續。

Going forward, we do have easier compares as the second half comes around, not that that's a big victory, but that is the reality. And I think we're just going to keep executing through whatever the macro is. I don't know what you want to add, Chuck?

展望未來，隨著下半場的到來，我們確實有更容易的比較，這並不是一場巨大的勝利，但這就是現實。而且我認為無論宏是什麼，我們都將繼續執行。我不知道你想補充什麼，查克？

Yes, James, I would say that if you just go around the world right now and you look at what's happening in Hong Kong, and you look at the China-U. S. trade situation, you look at what's going on in D.C., you've got Brexit, you've got uncertainty in Latin America, I mean, I think it's -- and any of those that are big issues, if they get resolved, then you could see some of the uncertainty removed, and I think that's what -- business confidence just suffers when there's lack of clarity. And there's been lack of clarity for so long that I think it finally just came into play.

是的，詹姆斯，我想說，如果你現在環遊世界，看看香港發生的事情，看看中美關係。美國貿易形勢，你看看華盛頓正在發生的事情，你有英國退歐，你在拉丁美洲有不確定性，我的意思是，我認為這是 - 任何一個大問題，如果他們得到解決，然後你可以看到一些不確定性被消除了，我認為這就是 - 當缺乏清晰度時，商業信心就會受到影響。長期以來一直缺乏清晰度，我認為它終於開始發揮作用了。

So I think you're probably able to guess that as well as we are based on some of these bigger issues sort of coming to some level of conclusion. And then obviously, we have the elections coming in next year that we'll have to see how they work.

所以我認為你可能會猜到，我們是基於其中一些更大的問題得出某種程度的結論。然後很明顯，明年我們將舉行選舉，我們必須看看它們是如何運作的。

But I will reiterate what Kelly said, despite the order growth rate, this software transition that we've been embarking on is going exactly as we planned. It continued this quarter. We had solid results in our software portfolio again this quarter. And we put up some numbers at our analyst conference that we said we would hit by the end of 2020. We're on track to get there. So we feel good about that, and we're going to keep on executing. I think the teams have done a phenomenal job of getting our portfolio in the position that it's at. And that's why I said I have full confidence that our customers are committed to these technologies. Just because they pause and we see a slowdown in 1 quarter, I think for the long term, we're in good shape, and I feel good about where we are.

但我要重申凱利所說的話，儘管訂單增長率很高，但我們一直在著手進行的軟件轉型正按照我們的計劃進行。本季度繼續如此。本季度我們的軟件產品組合再次取得了不錯的成績。我們在我們的分析師會議上提出了一些數字，我們說我們將在 2020 年底達到這些數字。我們正在按計劃實現目標。所以我們對此感覺很好，我們將繼續執行。我認為團隊在使我們的投資組合處於當前位置方面做得非常出色。這就是為什麼我說我完全相信我們的客戶致力於這些技術。只是因為他們暫停了，我們看到 1 個季度放緩，我認為從長遠來看，我們的狀況良好，我對我們所處的位置感覺良好。

Rod Hall from Goldman Sachs.

來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

I wanted to ask about the commercial order rate deterioration. I think last quarter, you guys hadn't really seen much deterioration at that at the end of the quarter. And then I'm assuming through this quarter, it's been getting worse. But wondering if you could just comment on what you're seeing there in that particular market?

我想問一下商業訂單率下降的情況。我認為上個季度，你們在本季度末並沒有真正看到情況惡化。然後我假設在本季度，情況會變得更糟。但是想知道你是否可以評論你在那個特定市場上看到的東西？

And regionally, are you seeing -- is it mainly in the U.S. where you see that weakness? Do you see the weakness all over the place? Just any further color you could give there would be helpful.

在區域方面，您是否看到 - 主要是在您看到這種弱點的美國嗎？你看到到處都是弱點了嗎？您可以提供的任何其他顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. Rod, that was one of the big -- it's a good question. That was one of the big signals to us that this thing is -- that there's definitely something going on because the commercial business is usually fairly resilient. And it was broad-based across the globe in each of the regions. I think all 3 were negative, right, Kelly?

是的。羅德，這是一個大問題——這是一個很好的問題。這是向我們發出的一個重要信號，即這件事是——肯定有事情發生，因為商業業務通常具有相當大的彈性。它在全球每個地區都有廣泛的基礎。我認為所有 3 個都是負面的，對吧，凱利？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So it was broad-based. But I think that will also be one of the first to bounce back when we start seeing that come back. That's a good sign.

是的。所以它具有廣泛的基礎。但我認為，當我們開始看到它回來時，這也將是第一個反彈的人。這是一個好兆頭。

Tejas Venkatesh from UBS.

來自瑞銀的 Tejas Venkatesh。

I wonder if you could provide more color on what you're seeing in the U.S. Service Provider business? And also more broadly, how you're thinking about the Service Provider vertical going forward? Obviously, it's been weak for a while, but assuming that environment stays that way, are there product refreshes and so forthcoming down the pipe that can better the year-over-year trends?

我想知道您是否可以提供更多有關您在美國服務提供商業務中看到的內容的顏色？更廣泛地說，您如何看待服務提供商的垂直發展？顯然，它已經疲軟了一段時間，但假設環境保持這種狀態，是否有產品更新等即將推出的產品可以改善同比趨勢？

Yes, Tejas, it's a good question. So in the U.S., I think it's pretty clear, if you just follow what's going on with the major players here, is -- and we talked about this on the last call, that they're currently focused on building out their trials and then their broader consumer-based 5G services. And that's an area that they'll -- frankly, they'll run most of that traffic across their existing networks.

是的，Tejas，這是個好問題。所以在美國，我認為很明顯，如果你只關注這裡的主要參與者正在發生的事情，那就是——我們在上次電話會議上談到了這一點，他們目前專注於建立他們的試驗，然後他們更廣泛的基於消費者的 5G 服務。這就是他們將要進行的領域——坦率地說，他們將在現有網絡中運行大部分流量。

We've said that when they begin to build out the broad-based enterprise service delivery 5G networks, that that's where we would really come into play on helping reengineer backbones for higher throughput and more traffic. And I would suspect that we'll see them start to do some of that maybe in the second half of 2020. We'll have to see how fast they get moving. And we have some announcements coming over the next couple of months that I think line up with what they're trying to accomplish. And so we'll see how it moves. But we -- that's the transition that we would be looking for that could help get this business to a little better position. It was -- and on a global basis, I'll tell you it was weak. It was -- it got much weaker in Europe. It was about the same in the U.S., I think. And we had some pockets of strength in Asia, outside of China. We had some strength in -- particularly in Japan. So as we've always said about this business, it's so big deal driven. But right now, I think that's the story of what we see.

我們已經說過，當他們開始構建基礎廣泛的企業服務交付 5G 網絡時，這就是我們真正發揮作用的地方，幫助重新設計骨幹網以獲得更高的吞吐量和更多的流量。我懷疑我們可能會在 2020 年下半年看到他們開始做一些這樣的事情。我們得看看他們移動的速度有多快。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將發布一些公告，我認為這些公告與他們正在努力實現的目標一致。所以我們將看看它是如何移動的。但是我們 - 這就是我們正在尋找的過渡，可以幫助使這項業務處於更好的位置。它是 - 在全球範圍內，我會告訴你它很弱。它是 - 它在歐洲變得更弱了。我認為在美國也差不多。我們在中國以外的亞洲也有一些優勢。我們有一些實力——尤其是在日本。因此，正如我們一直對這項業務所說的那樣，它是如此重要。但現在，我認為這就是我們所看到的故事。

Tal Liani with Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Tal Liani。

So if I take a 5-quarter view, 6-quarter view on your results, not just this quarter or the guidance, I see constant deterioration in the growth rate. Organically, from about 4.5%, now we're getting to minus 5%, or I have to look exactly at the guidance where we are. And the question I have is not about the environment, but rather, about the portfolio.

因此，如果我從 5 個季度、6 個季度的結果來看，而不僅僅是本季度或指導，我會看到增長率不斷惡化。有機地，從大約 4.5%，現在我們達到負 5%，或者我必須準確地查看我們所處的指導。我的問題不是關於環境，而是關於投資組合。

If you ignore the environment as much as we can, what can you do with the portfolio in order to change the trend line and reaccelerate the growth? Maybe even start with, can you identify what are the weak areas versus what are the strong areas? And then what's in your power to change versus something that may take longer?

如果你盡可能地忽視環境，你可以用投資組合做什麼來改變趨勢線並重新加速增長？甚至可以開始，你能確定哪些是薄弱領域，哪些是強項領域嗎？那麼與可能需要更長時間的事情相比，您有什麼能力可以改變？

Yes, Tal, it's a good question. That's actually what we spend every day doing. I will tell you that we saw strength -- continued strength in the campus refresh in the portfolio that we brought forward there, which, obviously, if you think about what we've been doing over the last couple of years, and I made a comment in my opening remarks about this, is we have now transitioned our entire enterprise networking portfolio to a mandatory subscription model. And those products and that -- those areas -- those new products are still -- they're growing very strongly right now as customers continue to deploy.

是的，塔爾，這是個好問題。這實際上就是我們每天都在做的事情。我會告訴你，我們看到了力量——我們在那裡提出的投資組合在校園更新方面的持續力量，很明顯，如果你想想過去幾年我們一直在做的事情，我做了一個在我的開場白中評論一下，我們現在已經將整個企業網絡產品組合轉變為強制訂閱模式。而那些產品和那些 - 那些領域 - 那些新產品仍然 - 隨著客戶繼續部署，它們現在正在非常強勁地增長。

So one of the big things we want to do is continue to transition towards this software model. We had 30 years of a net 30 CapEx model. So it's -- we're in the midst of that transition. We're making progress on the time line that we expected. That's the biggest strategic thing I think we can do.

因此，我們要做的一件大事就是繼續向這種軟件模型過渡。我們有 30 年的淨 30 資本支出模型。所以它 - 我們正處於過渡之中。我們正在按照預期的時間表取得進展。這是我認為我們可以做的最重要的戰略事情。

From a portfolio perspective, I think you have -- if you go across the portfolio, we made a lot of new announcements last week. We've got new announcements coming up. And I think that, clearly, we have a lot of customers that are still buying a lot of stuff. So while there's a slowdown, I think there's still meaningful value that our customers are seeing with our technology, and we'll continue to do everything we can to try to find those areas that resonate the most right now. I think you see it with security, given the importance of that technology to them. And we're working on some other things that we haven't announced yet. So we're going to continue to do all the things that you described.

從投資組合的角度來看，我認為你有 - 如果你瀏覽整個投資組合，我們上週發布了很多新公告。我們即將發布新公告。而且我認為，很明顯，我們有很多客戶仍在購買很多東西。因此，雖然經濟放緩，但我認為我們的客戶仍然可以通過我們的技術看到有意義的價值，我們將繼續盡我們所能，試圖找到那些目前最能引起共鳴的領域。考慮到該技術對他們的重要性，我認為您會看到它的安全性。我們正在研究一些我們尚未宣布的其他事情。所以我們將繼續做你描述的所有事情。

Jim Suva from Citigroup Global Markets.

花旗集團全球市場部的 Jim Suva。

Obviously, you laid out a lot of the details about the challenges. When we look back historically over Cisco, their history, the last time we kind of saw such negative trends were kind of July 2017. It was kind of about a 4-quarter pause before recovery. Is there anything different about it this time? And some people will say, well, white box is starting to hurt you a lot. Is it white box? Is it generally macro? Or why wouldn't it be like 4 quarters, like what we saw last year in 2017?

顯然，您列出了很多有關挑戰的細節。當我們回顧思科的歷史時，他們的歷史，我們最後一次看到這種負面趨勢是在 2017 年 7 月。在恢復之前大約有 4 個季度的暫停。這次有什麼不一樣嗎？有些人會說，好吧，白盒開始對你造成很大傷害。是白盒子嗎？一般是宏觀的嗎？或者為什麼不像我們去年在 2017 年看到的那樣是 4 個季度？

Yes. I -- first of all, I think that given the broad-based and the rapid change that we saw, I don't believe it's anything like white box or anything like that. It's broad across the portfolio. It's broad across geographies. And we're -- as Kelly said, obviously, in the second half, we don't like to talk about comps, but the math is different in the second half of the year. But we also have all the things that I just talked about with Tal. We also have this Wi-Fi 6 transition. At some point, we will have some spending going on around the 5G backbone transitions. We got 400-gig coming next year. So there are a lot of things. And I also believe that our customers, they will pause for a while, but technology is so absolutely core to their fundamental strategies that it just seems to me that the time that they're going to be able to pause is going to be shorter than what you would have seen in the past. I mean they worry about their competitors' investments. They worry about falling behind. So I think they'll hit the pause button because of all the uncertainty. I think we have to just see how long it lasts in today's world given the strategic value of all the technology. And frankly, everything that we're building is incredibly important to them as they deal with this new cloud world and rearchitecting their traffic flows and their security architecture, and there's only so long they're going to be able to pause on doing that. But we'll see how it turns out.

是的。我 - 首先，我認為鑑於我們所看到的基礎廣泛且迅速的變化，我不認為它是白盒之類的東西。它在整個投資組合中都很廣泛。它的地域範圍很廣。我們 - 正如凱利所說，顯然，在下半年，我們不喜歡談論補償，但下半年的數學情況有所不同。但我們也有我剛剛與 Tal 談到的所有事情。我們也有此 Wi-Fi 6 過渡。在某個時候，我們將圍繞 5G 骨幹網過渡進行一些支出。明年我們將有 400 場演出。所以有很多東西。而且我也相信我們的客戶，他們會暫停一段時間，但技術絕對是他們基本策略的核心，在我看來，他們能夠暫停的時間會比你過去會看到什麼。我的意思是他們擔心競爭對手的投資。他們擔心落後。所以我認為他們會因為所有的不確定性而按下暫停鍵。鑑於所有技術的戰略價值，我認為我們必須看看它在當今世界能持續多久。坦率地說，我們正在構建的一切對他們來說都非常重要，因為他們要應對這個新的雲世界並重新設計他們的流量和安全架構，而且他們只能在很長一段時間內停下來做這件事。但我們會看到結果如何。

Aaron Rakers from Wells Fargo.

來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

I want to go back to kind of the comments earlier made around kind of the software expansion and kind of progressing to what you had laid out at past analyst days. If I recall, it seemed to kind of map out that you would have about 20% of your total kind of revenue being -- product revenue being contributed from software. As we think about the product portfolio and the push to subscription, is that the right trajectory to think about? And as we look even beyond that, could you see an even higher mix of kind of just recurring nature of your business. I'm just trying to understand what more is left to kind of build out the product portfolio around this kind of subscription motion for the company?

我想回到之前關於軟件擴展的評論，以及你在過去分析師日提出的進展。如果我記得的話，它似乎有點映射出你將有大約 20% 的總收入——產品收入來自軟件。當我們考慮產品組合和推動訂閱時，這是值得思考的正確軌跡嗎？當我們超越這一點時，您能看到更高的業務組合嗎？我只是想了解還剩下什麼可以圍繞公司的這種訂閱動議構建產品組合？

Yes, I'll take that one. I'd say what we laid out is, we said, by the end of '20, we should have 30% of our revenue be software, and software and services be 50%. So that's the metric that we are pacing towards. And your 20% number, we are already past. So we are driving to be at that 30% by the end of this year.

是的，我會拿那個。我想說我們的計劃是，我們說過，到 20 世紀末，我們應該有 30% 的收入來自軟件，軟件和服務應該佔 50%。這就是我們正在邁向的指標。而你的 20% 的數字，我們已經過去了。因此，我們正在努力在今年年底前達到 30%。

So like Chuck mentioned, we are pacing well with that. This transition that we're driving has greatly increased the amount of software we are selling with our system. So that is all going well.

所以就像查克提到的那樣，我們在這方面進展順利。我們正在推動的這種轉變大大增加了我們隨系統銷售的軟件數量。所以這一切都很順利。

Yes, I think if you just think what Kelly said, by the end of 2020, our target was to be at 30% of our revenue coming from software. And if you also correlate the metric we shared today, which is in Q1, 71% of our software was coming from subscription and SaaS, which 4 years ago, that number was probably 1/3 or less. So that's the nature of the success of the transition that we've been driving so far.

是的，我想如果你只是想想凱利所說的，到 2020 年底，我們的目標是將 30% 的收入來自軟件。如果您還關聯我們今天在第一季度分享的指標，我們 71% 的軟件來自訂閱和 SaaS，而在 4 年前，這個數字可能只有 1/3 或更少。這就是我們迄今為止一直在推動的轉型成功的本質。

Yes, it's a good point. Actually, the target for the end of '20 for that was to be 66%. So we've passed that metric already.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點。實際上，20 年底的目標是 66%。所以我們已經通過了該指標。

Yes, that too.

是的，那也是。

Yes.

是的。

James Fish from Piper Jaffray.

來自 Piper Jaffray 的 James Fish。

I was just hoping to get more color on sort of the campus switching cycle with the Cat 9K and just kind of where you think we are, especially with large enterprises as that really drives, it seems like, more of the growth of the business anyways. And just trying to understand that.

我只是希望通過 Cat 9K 獲得更多有關校園切換週期的顏色，以及您認為我們所處的位置，尤其是對於大型企業，因為這似乎確實推動了業務的更多增長.只是想了解這一點。

And then just to make sure that we're thinking about it correct, when you're talking subscription within this business line, you're talking more of a term license than kind of recurring monthly, correct?

然後只是為了確保我們考慮的是正確的，當你在這個業務線中談論訂閱時，你談論的更多是定期許可而不是每月重複的，對嗎？

Yes, on that one, subscription, meaning, yes, so if I sell a Catalyst 9K switch now, it's sold with a subscription that gets renewed 3 or 5 years, depending on the term from now. So that's what we're talking about. So of all the software we're selling, is it based on a term-based value that gets renewed.

是的，在那個訂閱上，意思是，是的，所以如果我現在出售 Catalyst 9K 交換機，它會與訂閱一起出售，訂閱會續訂 3 或 5 年，具體取決於從現在起的期限。這就是我們所說的。因此，在我們銷售的所有軟件中，它是否基於更新的基於期限的價值。

Yes. And Jim, just to give you a little sense of where we are, I mean, we're still -- we're seeing very strong growth year-over-year in those platforms. The transition's happening from the old to the new, just like we would have expected. And we were actually talking about yesterday how we would answer the question relative to where we are in this. Because I think I said last time, we were in the second inning, and we joked that maybe we're in the bottom of the second inning now. But we're still very early in this transition and it's going very well. And we now have the entire enterprise networking portfolio in refresh mode with Wi-Fi 6 access points with the new Catalyst 9000. And then one of the things we announced last week was the ability to manage the Cat 9K, one of the products in the Cat 9K, onto the Meraki platform, so customers could take advantage of it. And we'll continue to extend that across the other portfolio of products. So it's going very well, and it's still early.

是的。吉姆，只是為了讓你了解我們所處的位置，我的意思是，我們仍然——我們在這些平台上看到了非常強勁的同比增長。正如我們所預料的那樣，從舊到新的轉變正在發生。我們昨天實際上在談論我們將如何回答與我們在其中所處位置相關的問題。因為我想我上次說過，我們在第二局，我們開玩笑說我們現在可能在第二局的底部。但我們在這個轉變中還處於早期階段，而且進展順利。現在，我們的整個企業網絡產品組合都處於刷新模式，帶有 Wi-Fi 6 接入點和新的 Catalyst 9000。然後，我們上周宣布的其中一件事是能夠在 Meraki 平台上管理 Cat 9K（Cat 9K 中的產品之一），以便客戶可以利用它。我們將繼續將其擴展到其他產品組合。所以一切進展順利，而且還早。

So let me just wrap up and say that, obviously, it's a complicated world right now, and we certainly felt the continuing impact that we talked about at the end of our last quarter. That being said, I have great confidence in where we are with the portfolio. We shared some metrics today on the software transition that I think is going incredibly well. And notwithstanding the short-term challenges, we feel really good about the future.

所以讓我總結一下，很明顯，現在是一個複雜的世界，我們當然感受到了我們在上個季度末談到的持續影響。話雖這麼說，我對我們在投資組合中所處的位置充滿信心。我們今天分享了一些關於軟件過渡的指標，我認為這些指標進展得非常順利。儘管存在短期挑戰，但我們對未來感到非常滿意。

And so thank you all for being with us today. And I'll kick it back to you, Marilyn.

所以感謝大家今天和我們在一起。我會把它還給你，瑪麗蓮。

Thanks, Chuck. Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal 2020 second quarter results, will be on Wednesday, February 12, 2020, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

謝謝，查克。思科的下一個季度收益電話會議將於 2020 年 2 月 12 日星期三下午 1:30 召開，這將反映我們 2020 財年第二季度的業績。太平洋時間下午 4:30東部時間。

Again, I'd like to remind the audience that in light of regulation FD, Cisco's policy is not to comment on its financial guidance during the quarter, unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

再次，我想提醒聽眾，根據 FD 法規，思科的政策是不評論其本季度的財務指導，除非通過明確的公開披露來完成。

We now plan to close the call. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact the Cisco Investor Relations department, and we thank you very much for joining the call today.

我們現在計劃結束通話。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科投資者關係部門，我們非常感謝您今天加入電話會議。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (800) 835-4610. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-3352. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話，可以致電 (800) 835-4610。對於來自美國境外的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-3352。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連接。