Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Krista, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jamie Lockwood, CN's Vice President of Investor Relations and Special Projects.

    早安。我叫 Krista,今天將由我擔任接線員。(接線員指示)現在,我想把電話交給 CN 投資人關係與特別專案副總裁 Jamie Lockwood。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Lockwood.

    各位女士、先生,Lockwood 先生。

  • Jamie Lockwood - Vice-President, Investor Relations and Special Projects

    Jamie Lockwood - Vice-President, Investor Relations and Special Projects

  • Thank you, Krista. (Event Instructions) Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for CN's Third Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. Joining us on the call today are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Pat Whitehead, our Chief Operations Officer; Janet Drysdale, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你,Krista。(活動指示)歡迎各位。感謝各位參加 CN 2026 年第三季財務與營運成果電話會議。今天與會者包括:我們的總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson;營運長 Pat Whitehead;商務長 Janet Drysdale;以及財務長 Ghislain Houle。

  • You can turn to page 2 of the presentation, which includes our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP definitions for your reference. These forward-looking statements reflect our current information and educated assumptions and include estimates, goals and expectations about the future. These involve risks and uncertainties, and actual lot may differ from what we expect. As a reminder, forward-looking statements are not guarantees and factors such as economic conditions, competition, fuel prices and regulatory changes could impact actual outcomes.

    請翻到簡報第 2 頁,供各位參考,其中包含我們的前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 定義。這些前瞻性陳述反映我們目前掌握的資訊與基於專業判斷的假設,並包含對未來的估計、目標與預期。其中涉及風險與不確定性,實際結果可能與我們的預期不同。提醒各位,前瞻性陳述並非保證,經濟狀況、競爭、燃料價格及法規變動等因素都可能影響實際結果。

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

    現在,我很高興把電話交給 CN 總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • (spoken in foreign language) Thanks, everyone, for joining our call today. Now before I turn to the quarter, I want to take a moment on the announcement that you will have seen come out yesterday. After nearly three decades at CN, Ghislain has decided to retire. Now he's been a very close partner to me over the past five years and to our leadership team, and I know to many of you on this call as well, and the financial discipline that he has built here is a large part of the CN that we are today.

    (以外語發言)感謝各位今天加入我們的電話會議。在我談本季之前,我想先花一點時間談談各位昨天應該已經看到的公告。在 CN 服務將近三十年後,Ghislain 已決定退休。過去五年他一直是我以及我們領導團隊非常緊密的夥伴,我也知道在座許多與會者也很熟悉他;而他在此建立的財務紀律,是造就今日 CN 的重要一環。

  • Now we've not gone yet Ghis continues as CFO through February 1, taking us through our full year results. And after that, he'll remain with CN as an adviser until retirement at the end of March. Jamie Lockwood, who many of you know, will succeed Ghislain as our Chief Financial Officer on February 1. And Jamie has been with CN for nearly 20 years. He's worked across finance, strategy, supply chain and operations.

    我們還沒有到告別的時候,Ghislain 將持續擔任財務長至 2 月 1 日,帶領我們完成全年業績發布。之後,他將以顧問身分留任 CN,直到 3 月底退休。許多各位都認識的 Jamie Lockwood,將於 2 月 1 日接任 Ghislain 擔任財務長。Jamie 在 CN 服務將近 20 年。他曾在財務、策略、供應鏈與營運等領域任職。

  • And he's been part of shaping our financial and our corporate strategy. And we're excited about Jamie moving into the role. And for now, I just want to thank his for his partnership over these last five years and to congratulate both of you as you move into your next role. Now on to the business. This was another solid quarter. We move more freight while maintaining a fluid network and translated that volume growth into higher earnings and free cash flow. EPS grew 18% on 4% volume growth.

    他也參與塑造我們的財務策略與公司策略。我們很期待 Jamie 接任這個職務。目前,我只想感謝他過去五年的合作夥伴關係,並祝賀你們兩位在邁向下一個角色時一切順利。接著談業務。這又是一個穩健的季度。我們在維持網路順暢運行的同時運送了更多貨量,並將運量成長轉化為更高的獲利與自由現金流。在運量成長 4% 的情況下,每股盈餘(EPS)成長 18%。

  • Looking at the balance of the year, we are reaffirming our guidance for mid- to high single-digit EPS growth based on a low single-digit RTM growth.

    就今年剩餘期間而言,我們重申指引:在 RTM(收入噸英里)低個位數成長的基礎上,EPS 將達到中至高個位數成長。

  • And as we sit here today one month into the quarter, I can say we're tracking more towards the upper end of that range. And we remain focused on running the railroad safely and efficiently, converting commercial opportunities driving structural productivity and maintaining financial discipline. This focus is producing results.

    而以今天來看,本季已過一個月,我可以說我們的進度更偏向該區間的上緣。我們仍專注於以安全且高效率的方式營運鐵路,把握商業機會、推動結構性生產力提升,並維持財務紀律。這樣的專注正在產生成果。

  • So let me highlight three key messages from the quarter. But firstly, the team continues to execute well. Now it all starts with safety. We delivered our best third quarter accident and injury performance in the last decade, while handling more volume and maintaining reliable service across the network.

    我來強調本季三個關鍵訊息。首先,團隊持續良好執行。一切都從安全開始。在處理更多運量並維持全網可靠服務的同時,我們交出了過去十年中第三季最佳的事故與傷害表現。

  • We improved the productivity of our people and assets and delivered record third quarter fuel efficiency. And these are structural gains which reflect changes to how size and deploy our resources and run our network. Fast Track has delivered about $120 million year-to-date, and that run rate carries into next year. These results demonstrate the strength of our team and our operating model and the leverage inherent in our network given the capacity investments we've made over the last several years.

    我們提升了人員與資產的生產力,並創下第三季燃油效率新高。這些都是結構性的改善,反映我們在資源規模配置與部署方式,以及網路營運方式上的改變。Fast Track 計畫今年迄今已貢獻約 1.2 億美元,而這樣的運行速率將延續到明年。這些成果展現了我們團隊與營運模式的實力,以及在過去幾年所做的產能投資下,我們網路所具備的內在槓桿。

  • We're well positioned to accommodate additional volume while maintaining our current level of capital intensity. And secondly, our commercial strategy is delivering broad-based growth. Our teams remain focused on opportunities that fit our network and generate value for the railroad and our customers. The close alignment between operations and sales is driving results. Reliable service gives Janet and our team the confidence to pursue new business and price for the value of the service we deliver.

    我們具備良好條件在維持目前資本強度水準的同時承接更多運量。第二,我們的商業策略正在帶來廣泛的成長。我們的團隊持續聚焦於符合我們網路、並能為鐵路與客戶創造價值的機會。營運與銷售之間的緊密協同正在帶動成果。可靠的服務讓 Janet 與我們的團隊有信心爭取新業務,並就我們所提供服務的價值進行定價。

  • The commercial team is moving with speed and agility to convert these opportunities. our boots on the ground efforts have contributed approximately $300 million in new revenues so far this year. And thirdly, we continue to exercise financial discipline. Year-to-date, free cash flow has increased 25%, driven by our strong commercial and operating performance and disciplined capital spending. This, in turn, has allowed greater flexibility with our balance sheet and we continued to execute our share repurchase program to return cash to shareholders.

    商務團隊以快速且靈活的方式推進,將這些機會轉化為成果。我們「深入現場」的努力今年迄今已貢獻約 3 億美元的新營收。第三,我們持續維持財務紀律。今年迄今,自由現金流成長 25%,主要受惠於強勁的商業與營運表現,以及嚴謹的資本支出管理。這也讓我們的資產負債表更具彈性,我們並持續執行庫藏股回購計畫,將現金回饋給股東。

  • So the railroads operating well, service is reliable, productivity continues to improve and we have the capacity and resources in place to support our customers as opportunities develop.

    因此,鐵路營運表現良好、服務可靠、生產力持續提升,而且我們已具備足夠的產能與資源,可在機會出現時支援客戶。

  • Now looking beyond the quarter, we remain excited about CN's long-term prospects. But a year ago, we updated you on some important changes being made at the company around investment spending, productivity drivers and a continued commitment to driving shareholder value. We remain focused on what we control. And over the past year, we've developed enhanced capabilities and culture to drive execution. As we plan for 2027 and beyond, we're pushing further to ensure that we set the agenda for CN, and there's a lot to be excited about.

    再把視野放到本季之外,我們仍對 CN 的長期前景感到振奮。不過在一年前,我們已向各位更新公司在投資支出、生產力驅動因素,以及持續致力於提升股東價值方面所做的一些重要調整。我們仍專注於我們能掌控的事項。而在過去一年,我們已建立更強的能力與文化,以推動執行力。在規劃 2027 年及更長遠的未來時,我們將更進一步,確保由我們來設定 CN 的議程,令人期待的事情很多。

  • The opportunity set ahead of us continues to expand. The positive final investment decisions for Phase 2 of LNG Canada and Coastal GasLink reinforced the long-term outlook for the Montney development supporting additional frac sand and natural gas liquids volumes. And additionally, as soon to be finalized agreement with Union Pacific Railroad to extend CN's reach into Mexico positions us to compete for a larger share of the approximately USD45 billion in annual Canada to Mexico trade, much of which is tied to Eastern Canada.

    我們面前的機會版圖仍在擴大。LNG Canada 第二期與 Coastal GasLink 的最終投資決策(FID)獲得正面結果,強化了 Montney 開發的長期展望,並將支撐更多壓裂砂與天然氣液(NGL)運量。此外,與 Union Pacific Railroad 即將定案的協議,將延伸 CN 進入墨西哥的觸角,使我們得以競逐每年約 450 億美元的加拿大—墨西哥貿易中更大的份額,其中相當一部分與加拿大東部相關。

  • It creates an opportunity to market directly for additional cross-border traffic. Now importantly, these opportunities are supported by network with available capacity. We've completed much of the heavy investment required to support growth. And as additional business comes on to the railroad, we can improve asset utilization, lower unit costs and generate higher earnings and free cash flow without a proportional increase in resources or capital.

    這也創造了直接行銷以爭取更多跨境運輸量的機會。重要的是,這些機會有具備可用產能的網路作為支撐。我們已完成支援成長所需的大部分重大投資。隨著更多業務導入鐵路,我們可以提升資產使用率、降低單位成本,並在不成比例增加資源或資本的情況下,創造更高的獲利與自由現金流。

  • And to be clear, capital intensity is normalized to a range in line with our North American peers and additional volume on the network will continue to drive operating leverage in our model. The railroad is more productive than it was a year ago and the opportunity set in front of us is larger. We are delivering on our commitments and have a network that's built to convert broad-based growth into earnings and free cash flow. With that, I'll turn it to you, Pat.

    明確來說,我們的資本強度已常態化至與北美同業一致的區間,而網路上的額外運量將持續推動我們模式中的營運槓桿。相較一年前,鐵路的生產力更高,而我們面前的機會集合也更大。我們正在兌現承諾,並擁有一個能將廣泛成長轉化為獲利與自由現金流的網路。接下來我把時間交給 Pat。

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Tracy. The team delivered another solid quarter, safely moving more freight while maintaining a fluid and reliable network. I want to thank our entire team of professional railroaders across the system for their continued focus, discipline and commitment to our customers. As always, it starts with safety. Safety is the foundation of everything we do.

    謝謝你,Tracy。團隊在本季再度交出穩健的成績,在維持網路順暢且可靠的同時,安全地運送更多貨物。我要感謝全系統所有專業鐵路同仁,持續專注、嚴謹自律,並致力於服務我們的客戶。一如既往,一切都從安全開始。安全是我們所做一切的基礎。

  • We remain focused on reinforcing our operating discipline and ensuring the trains run safely and that every member of our team goes home safely at the end of the day.

    我們仍專注於強化營運紀律,確保列車安全運行,並確保團隊每一位成員在一天結束時都能平安回家。

  • I'm pleased to report that we have had the best third quarter accident and injury ratios in the last 10 years. This is encouraging progress but we are never satisfied, and we will continue to push to improve. Now turning to operations. We entered the quarter with a clear plan centered on network fluidity, service reliability and productivity. The team executed that plan and the results continue to demonstrate the strength of our team, our operating model and the capacity available across the network.

    我很高興報告,我們在過去10年中創下最佳的第三季事故與傷害比率。這是令人鼓舞的進展,但我們從不自滿,將持續推動改善。接著談營運。我們在本季開始時就有一套清晰計畫,聚焦於網路流動性、服務可靠性與生產力。團隊落實執行該計畫,成果持續展現我們團隊、營運模式以及全網可用運能的實力。

  • We handled 4% more volume in the quarter while maintaining strong operating metrics. That combination is important. It shows that we can absorb growth, protect service and make better use of our existing assets and resources. Locomotive productivity improved 5% in the quarter, employee productivity improved 7%. This is the seventh consecutive quarter with year-over-year improvement.

    本季我們處理的運量增加4%,同時維持強勁的營運指標。這樣的組合很重要。它顯示我們能吸收成長、守住服務,並更有效運用既有資產與資源。機車生產力本季提升5%,員工生產力提升7%。這是連續第七個季度年對年改善。

  • These are not simply operating statistics. They translate directly into the cost structure by allowing us to move more freight without a proportional increase in locomotives or employees.

    這些不只是營運統計數字。它們能直接反映在成本結構上,讓我們在不按比例增加機車或員工的情況下運送更多貨物。

  • Fuel efficiency is another area where the team continues to raise the bar. We achieved record third quarter fuel efficiency, including our best month ever in September, further reinforcing CN's position as the industry leader. We are the most fuel-efficient railroad in the industry, and we are setting new records every quarter, beating ourselves. This performance reflects disciplined train handling, improved locomotive utilization and the continued refinement of our operating practices.

    燃油效率是團隊持續拉高標準的另一個領域。我們創下第三季燃油效率新紀錄,其中9月更是史上最佳單月表現,進一步鞏固CN作為產業領導者的地位。我們是業界燃油效率最高的鐵路公司,而且每一季都在刷新紀錄、超越自己。這項表現反映了嚴謹的列車操控、機車使用率提升,以及我們營運作法的持續精進。

  • Together, these efforts generated $15 million in fuel savings during the quarter. Focusing on our Western region. Gross ton miles increased 4%, while car velocity improved 3%. We moved record volumes of grain while also moving more refined products metals, NGLs, automotives and improving service metrics, and we have capacity in place to do more. We currently have over 200 stored locomotives, and we have available network capacity, including in the West.

    綜合這些努力,本季帶來1,500萬美元的燃油節省。接著聚焦我們的西部地區。總噸英里增加4%,同時車輛速度提升3%。我們在運送創紀錄的穀物量之餘,也運送更多精煉產品、金屬、NGL(天然氣液)、汽車,並改善服務指標,而且我們具備進一步提升的運能。目前我們有超過200台封存機車,且網路仍有可用運能,包括西部地區。

  • This gives us the ability to respond as additional business comes on to the network without adding resources at the same rate as volume. As we grow into that capacity, we improve asset utilization, lower our unit costs and create operating leverage.

    這讓我們能在新增業務進入網路時做出回應,而不必以與運量相同的速度增加資源。當我們逐步把成長導入這些運能時,就能提升資產使用效率、降低單位成本,並創造營運槓桿。

  • Fast Track remains an important part of how we run this railroad. We have now realized approximately $120 million in benefits, up $20 million from last quarter. The work began with our major yards and terminals, but the mindset extends well beyond those locations. We continue to challenge how we use our facilities, vehicle fleet and other assets. and how we manage processes and purchase services across the operation.

    Fast Track 仍是我們經營這條鐵路的重要一環。我們目前已實現約1.2億美元的效益,較上季增加2,000萬美元。這項工作從主要編組場與終端站開始,但這種思維早已延伸到遠超過那些地點。我們持續挑戰如何使用我們的設施、車隊與其他資產,以及如何在整體營運中管理流程並採購各項服務。

  • Fast Track is not a onetime initiative. It is a continuous improvement discipline built into our scheduled operating model.

    Fast Track 不是一次性的倡議。它是一套持續改善的紀律,已內建於我們的排程式營運模式之中。

  • We are pleased with the progress, and we are not done. The takeaway from the quarter is straightforward. We remain committed to safety as the foundation upon which we build this organization. The network is running well. We handled more volume maintain strong fluidity and service and improve the productivity of our assets and workforce.

    我們對進展感到滿意,但我們還沒完成。本季的重點很明確。我們仍致力於以安全作為打造這個組織的基礎。網路運行良好。我們處理了更多運量、維持強勁的流動性與服務,並提升資產與人力的生產力。

  • We have the capacity and resources to accommodate additional growth efficiently and the team remains focused on executing the plan. And what is under our control. Janet, over to you.

    我們具備運能與資源,可有效率地承接進一步成長,團隊也持續專注於執行計畫,以及我們可控的事項。Janet,交給你。

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone. I am extremely pleased with our performance in the third quarter, which highlights the growth opportunities enabled by unique network reach and the resiliency that comes from our diversified portfolio. Revenues were up 15% in Q3, revenue ton miles increased 4%. The Same-store pricing continues to come in ahead of our rail cost inflation. However, in the quarter, it was partly offset by mix and lower pricing on regulated grain.

    謝謝你,Pat,各位早安。我對我們第三季的表現感到非常滿意,這凸顯了我們獨特的網路覆蓋所帶來的成長機會,以及多元化組合所帶來的韌性。第三季營收年增15%,收入噸英里(RTM)增加4%。同店定價持續領先於我們的鐵路成本通膨。不過,本季部分被產品組合影響以及受管制穀物較低的定價所抵銷。

  • Our Boots on the Ground efforts, business development work and our pipeline of CN-specific growth initiatives continues to produce. In Q3, we increased NGL exports through Prince Rupert, moved the first cars from the new Wolf Midstream fractionator, continued the ramp-up of Phase 2 of our GTA fuel terminal, brought on additional canola crush capacity, shipped the first unit train from a newly expanded grain elevator in Illinois, and we celebrated the opening of the CanExport Transload Facility at Prince Rupert.

    我們的「Boots on the Ground」行動、業務開發工作,以及CN專屬成長倡議的專案儲備,持續產生成果。在第三季,我們提高了經由魯珀特王子港(Prince Rupert)的NGL出口量,從新的Wolf Midstream 分餾廠運出首批車皮,持續推進我們GTA燃料終端第二期的爬坡,新增芥花籽壓榨產能,從伊利諾州一座新擴建的穀物升降機發出首列整列列車(unit train),並慶祝魯珀特王子港CanExport轉運(Transload)設施正式啟用。

  • We are also continuing to leverage transload capabilities. We shipped the first cars into a new facility in New Brunswick, broke ground on a facility expansion in Nova Scotia and increased transload capacity in Wisconsin. These are great examples of our BD efforts and Boots on the Ground.

    我們也持續運用轉運(transload)能力。我們將首批車皮運入新不倫瑞克省的一座新設施,在新斯科細亞省一項設施擴建案動土,並提升威斯康辛州的轉運產能。這些都是我們業務開發(BD)與「Boots on the Ground」的絕佳例子。

  • Now near term, energy continues to be a key growth driver. Over the medium and longer term, we expect growth between Mexico and Canada, and between Canada and the world. Our agreement with UP provides CN with direct access to Mexico's high-growth manufacturing corridor, complementing our existing access to Central and Southern Mexico via the CG Rail Ferry. We are also very well positioned to benefit from increasing investment in Canadian industrial and resource projects including the recently announced $2 billion of federal and provincial level investment to develop Ontario's critical minerals in the vast Rinafire.

    就近期而言,能源仍是關鍵成長動能。在中期與更長期,我們預期墨西哥與加拿大之間、以及加拿大與全球之間的成長。我們與UP的協議讓CN可直接進入墨西哥高成長的製造業走廊,並補強我們既有透過CG鐵路渡輪(CG Rail Ferry)通往墨西哥中部與南部的通道。我們也具備非常有利的位置,可受惠於加拿大工業與資源專案投資增加,包括近期宣布聯邦與省級合計20億美元的投資,用於在廣大的Rinafire開發安大略省的關鍵礦物。

  • The progress we are seeing across the portfolio gives us confidence in our ability to continue to create value for many years to come. Now let me walk you through the key Q3 highlights. Grain and Fertilizer RTMs were up 12%, supported by record crop production and robust export demand. Petroleum & Chemicals RTMs were up 5%, driven by continued growth in shipments of refined products, mainly gasoline and diesel as well as increased crude shipments to the Gulf Coast.

    我們在各項業務組合中看到的進展,讓我們對未來多年持續創造價值的能力充滿信心。接下來我帶各位回顧第三季的重點亮點。穀物與肥料的收入噸英里(RTM)年增12%,受創紀錄作物產量與強勁出口需求支撐。石油與化學品的RTM年增5%,主要由精煉產品出貨持續成長所帶動,尤其是汽油與柴油,並且原油運往墨西哥灣沿岸的出貨增加。

  • In Metals & Minerals, growth was driven by strong long-haul field movements within Canada as well as higher scrap iron and aluminum shipments. Frac sand reflected a mix change as growth in shipments to Northeast DC and within the US replaced volumes destined for Alberta. The positive automotive results reflect continued share gains and a shift towards longer haul import traffic. Coal RTMs declined in the quarter due to production challenges impacting West Coast volume.

    在金屬與礦物方面,成長來自加拿大境內強勁的長途場站運輸,以及廢鐵與鋁材出貨增加。壓裂砂(frac sand)反映產品組合變化:運往東北部DC及美國境內的出貨成長,取代了原本目的地為阿爾伯塔省的運量。汽車業務的正面成果反映市占持續提升,以及進口貨源轉向更長運距。煤炭RTM本季下滑,原因是生產挑戰影響西岸運量。

  • In forest products volumes were impacted by ongoing market challenges. In Intermodal, domestic volumes were impacted by wildfire-related disruptions, while we received performance reflected the demarketing of certain shipments and weather-related disruptions in Asia affecting customer supply chains.

    林產品運量受到持續的市場挑戰影響。在聯運(Intermodal)方面,國內運量受到野火相關中斷影響;而我們收到的表現反映了對部分貨運的去行銷(demarketing),以及亞洲天候相關中斷影響客戶供應鏈。

  • Moving now to slide 9 and turning to the fourth quarter. Petroleum & Chemicals is expected to benefit from new crude business, including the expansion of Strat Kona's Moda facility, fractionator expansion by Pembina and Wolf and continued growth in NGLs and refined products. In coal, we expect steady demand for US exports. Canadian coal shipments will depend on mine level production as well as operational conditions, including at Prince Rupert, where labor disruption of the terminal continues to impact volume throughput.

    現在請看第9頁投影片,並轉到第四季展望。石油與化學品預期將受惠於新增原油業務,包括Strat Kona的Moda設施擴建、Pembina與Wolf的分餾設備擴建,以及NGL與精煉產品的持續成長。在煤炭方面,我們預期美國出口需求將維持穩定。加拿大煤炭出貨將取決於礦場層級的產量以及營運條件,包括魯珀特王子港在內;該港口碼頭的勞資中斷仍持續影響運量吞吐。

  • In Metals & Minerals, demand for steel and aluminum remain constructive through the remainder of the year as does demand for frac sand in Northeast BC. In Grain and Fertilizers, growth is expected to moderate as we lap last year's record performance. There's no change to our Forest product outlook. Turning to Intermodal. We expect domestic performance to strengthen in Q4 supported by recent commercial gains and additional opportunities for truck to rail conversion.

    在金屬與礦產方面,鋼鐵與鋁的需求在今年剩餘期間仍維持穩健,同時卑詩省東北部的壓裂砂需求亦然。在穀物與化肥方面,隨著我們進入與去年創紀錄表現的比較基期,預期成長將趨於溫和。

  • In overseas, we expect volumes to be weaker than prior year levels but we're encouraged by CMA CGM's Inomec service expansion to Halifax. The first vessel expected to arrive late November, enhances coverage between Canada and the Mediterranean and India. In automotive, we expect to trend towards higher offshore imports to continue.

    在海外方面,我們預期運量將較去年同期偏弱,但我們對 CMA CGM 將其 Inomec 服務擴展至哈利法克斯感到鼓舞。預計首艘船將於 11 月下旬抵達,將強化加拿大與地中海及印度之間的航線覆蓋。在汽車方面,我們預期離岸進口將持續朝更高水準發展。

  • So, let me wrap up. Our third quarter results demonstrate both the strength of our franchise today and the opportunity that lies ahead. Our foundation is solid. We have a great franchise, available capacity, and we're delivering operational and service excellence. We are built for growth.

    那麼,讓我做個總結。我們第三季的業績同時展現了我們當前特許經營的實力,以及未來的成長機會。我們的基礎很穩固。我們擁有優質的特許經營、可用產能,並且正提供卓越的營運與服務。我們為成長而打造。

  • With multiyear multi-commodity growth prospects across our network, a new connection to Mexico and increasing investment in Canadian industrial and resource projects, I remain confident in and very proud of the commercial team's commitment to find new opportunities, capture the volumes that best fit our network and maintain our pricing discipline. Ghislain Houle.

    隨著我們網路在未來多年、跨多種商品的成長前景,加上新增連結墨西哥,以及加拿大工業與資源專案投資持續增加,我仍對商務團隊致力於尋找新機會、爭取最符合我們網路的運量並維持定價紀律,深具信心且感到非常自豪。Ghislain Houle。

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • (spoken in foreign language) Third quarter reported diluted EPS was $2, up 9% from last year, which included a onetime expense of $118 million in asset impairments and $14 million in advisor fees related to industry consolidation. The impairment is a noncash charge and is related to the discontinued development of portions of certain technology projects before completion. It does not change our commitment to using technology where it improves safety, customer service, productivity or the efficiency of the railroad.

    (以外語發言)第三季申報的稀釋每股盈餘為 2 美元,較去年成長 9%;去年包含一次性費用:資產減損 1.18 億美元,以及與產業整併相關的顧問費 1,400 萬美元。該減損為非現金費用,與在完成前停止開發部分特定科技專案有關。這不會改變我們在能提升安全、客戶服務、生產力或鐵路營運效率之處採用科技的承諾。

  • Therefore, adjusted diluted EPS was $2.16, up 18% from last year or $2.14, 17% higher on an exchange adjusted basis. This strong performance was driven by solid volume growth, continued pricing discipline and the productivity improvement that Pat talked about. We delivered an adjusted operating ratio of 61%, a 40 basis point improvement. The quarter was impacted by higher year-over-year fuel prices, which had a diluted impact on operating ratio of 60 basis points.

    因此,調整後稀釋每股盈餘為 2.16 美元,較去年成長 18%;若以匯率調整基礎計算則為 2.14 美元,成長 17%。這項強勁表現主要由穩健的運量成長、持續的定價紀律,以及 Pat 所提到的生產力提升所帶動。我們交出調整後營業比率(OR)為 61%,改善 40 個基點。本季受到燃料價格年增的影響,使營業比率稀釋 60 個基點。

  • Excluding the impact of fuel, our adjusted OR would have been 60.4%. This demonstrates the value of the productivity initiatives across the business and our ability to generate operating leverage as volumes grow. Free cash flow for the first nine months was $2.9 billion, an increase of 25% compared with the same period last year. The improvement reflects disciplined capital expenditures partially offset by higher cash tax payments.

    若排除燃料影響,我們的調整後 OR 將為 60.4%。這顯示全公司生產力措施的價值,以及在運量成長時我們創造營運槓桿的能力。前九個月自由現金流為 29 億美元,較去年同期增加 25%。改善主要反映資本支出紀律,部分被較高的現金稅款支付所抵銷。

  • Free cash flow conversion is now 80% year-to-date at the end of Q3. during the quarter, we repurchased close to 4 million shares for approximately $675 million. Our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was about 2.6 times at the end of the quarter -- and with strong operating performance for this year, we now expect the leverage ratio to come back to around 2.5 times by the end of the year instead of in 2027. We will continue repurchasing shares through the end of the current program consistent with our capital allocation framework.

    截至第三季末,今年迄今自由現金流轉換率已達 80%。本季我們回購接近 400 萬股,金額約 6.75 億美元。本季末我們的調整後負債對調整後 EBITDA 比率約為 2.6 倍——在今年強勁的營運表現下,我們現在預期槓桿比率將在年底回到約 2.5 倍,而非原先預期的 2027 年。我們將依照資本配置架構,在本次回購計畫結束前持續回購股份。

  • Turning to slide 12, let me review the quarter's key operating expense categories adjusted for foreign exchange. Labor increased by 6% driven by general wage increases and an approximately $35 million increase in incentive compensation versus last year, which were partially offset by 3% lower average head count and strong labor productivity. Purchased services and material was up 11%, driven by higher trucking and vessel costs, mostly due to stronger volumes and higher material and advisory costs.

    接著看第 12 頁,讓我回顧本季按匯率調整後的主要營運費用類別。人力成本增加 6%,主要由整體薪資調升以及相較去年約 3,500 萬美元的激勵獎酬增加所帶動;部分被平均人數下降 3%及強勁的勞動生產力所抵銷。外購服務與材料成本上升 11%,主要因卡車與船舶成本較高,多數來自運量走強,以及材料與顧問成本上升。

  • Reduced capital credit from our lower capital program had an approximately $15 million impact on operating expenses, mainly affecting Virtus services and material and labor expenses. Fuel expense was about $235 million higher on a year-over-year due to higher fuel prices, with the impact of higher volumes, offset by record fuel efficiency. Fuel prices had a positive impact of $0.14 on EPS in the quarter. However, as noted, it had 60 basis point dilutive impact on operating ratio.

    由於我們較低的資本計畫使資本抵減(capital credit)減少,對營運費用造成約 1,500 萬美元影響,主要反映在 Virtus 的服務與材料以及人力費用。燃料費用年增約 2.35 億美元,主因燃料價格上升;運量增加的影響則被創紀錄的燃油效率所抵銷。燃料價格在本季對每股盈餘帶來 0.14 美元的正面影響。然而,如前所述,其對營業比率造成 60 個基點的稀釋影響。

  • For Q4, if fuel prices remain at current spot rates, we expect an EPS tailwind of approximately $0.10 with a 100 to 150 basis point headwind to the operating ratio. Other expenses were largely flat year-over-year.

    就第四季而言,若燃料價格維持目前即期水準,我們預期每股盈餘將有約 0.10 美元的順風,但營業比率將面臨 100 至 150 個基點的逆風。其他費用整體上與去年同期大致持平。

  • Moving to slide 13, let me provide some visibility for the balance of the year. Supported by our third quarter performance, we are reaffirming our guidance for mid- to high single-digit growth in adjusted diluted EPS and based on the low single digit RTM growth, and we are currently tracking more towards the upper end of that range. As a reminder, we will be lapping stronger year-over-year comparison in the fourth quarter, which is reflected in our outlook.

    接著看第 13 頁,讓我就今年剩餘期間提供一些能見度。在第三季表現支撐下,我們重申指引:調整後稀釋每股盈餘將呈現中到高個位數成長;並基於 RTM 低個位數成長的假設,目前我們的追蹤結果更偏向該區間的上緣。提醒一下,第四季我們將面臨較強的年對年比較基期,這已反映在我們的展望之中。

  • We also continue to expect approximately $2.8 billion of capital investment in 2026, net of customer reimbursements. We entered the fourth quarter in a solid position. The railroad is operating well. Service remains strong. We are staying closely connected to our customers, and we have capacity available across the network.

    我們也仍預期 2026 年資本投資約 28 億美元(扣除客戶補償後)。我們以穩健的狀態進入第四季。鐵路營運表現良好。服務維持強勁。我們與客戶保持緊密連結,且全網路仍有可用產能。

  • We will continue to match resources to demand and maintain our focus on productivity pricing discipline and cost control. To summarize, Q3 was another solid quarter.

    我們將持續依需求配置資源,並維持對生產力、定價紀律與成本控制的專注。總結來說,第三季又是一個穩健的季度。

  • We continue to demonstrate the operating leverage and cash generation potential of the business when we combine profitable growth with strong execution and financial discipline. With that, I will turn it back to Tracy.

    當我們將獲利性成長與強勁執行力及財務紀律結合時,我們持續展現這項業務的營運槓桿與現金創造潛力。接下來我把時間交回給 Tracy。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks. So if you heard today, this was another strong quarter and a clear demonstration of what this team can deliver. So operator, over to you, we're ready to take questions.

    謝謝。所以如同你們今天所聽到的,這又是一個強勁的季度,也清楚展現了這個團隊能交付的成果。那麼接線生,交給你了,我們準備開始回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Brian Ossenbeck, JP Morgan.

    (接線生指示)Brian Ossenbeck,摩根大通。

  • Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

    Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

  • Congrats on the retirement. And Jamie, congrats on your motion as well. Maybe just couple of quick things to start. It's great to get the update on the fast track from Pat. Maybe a little bit more details if that's $120 million run rate so far if it's actually realized in net or if that's a gross number. So a little bit more clarity on that.

    恭喜退休。Jamie,也恭喜你升任。先從幾個小問題開始。很高興聽到 Pat 對 Fast Track 的更新。能否再多一些細節:目前所說的 1.2 億美元年化運行率(run rate)是已在淨額層面實現,還是只是毛額數字?希望能更清楚一些。

  • And then just from a competitive dynamic, we saw the headlines of the Elk Valley Coal agreement. So I just wanted to hear how that would affect the rest of the year, if anything? And if there's any sort of operational changes that you need to make on that front when it starts to transition.

    另外從競爭動態來看,我們看到 Elk Valley Coal 協議的新聞標題。我想了解這對今年剩餘時間是否會有任何影響?以及在開始轉換時,你們是否需要在營運面做任何調整?

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay. And I'll start with the Fast Track and that is $120 million realized. And to be clear, I want to make sure this is clear. Fast Track is not a onetime initiative. This is how we run the place.

    好的。我先談 Fast Track,那 1.2 億美元是已實現的。而且為了說清楚,我想確保這點很明確。Fast Track 不是一次性的倡議。這就是我們經營這個地方的方式。

  • And it's about bringing the discipline and the urgency to execution. This is about challenging how we work and making continuous improvement in the day-to-day operations. So we're excited about this. We're excited about what we've accomplished in 2026 and how we take that momentum into 2027. Janet, over to you.

    它的重點是把紀律與緊迫感帶到執行上。這是要挑戰我們的工作方式,並在日常營運中持續改善。所以我們對此感到振奮。我們對 2026 年所完成的成果感到振奮,也期待把這股動能帶進 2027 年。Janet,交給你。

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Pat, and thanks, Brian, for the question. I think the topic was discussed earlier this week, but I do appreciate the opportunity to take a minute and share my perspective. So under the existing contract, EBR traffic to Neptune moves on CPK from the mines in Southern BC to the Camlin interchange at which point CN will then take the train and move it into the terminal.

    謝謝你,Pat,也謝謝你,Brian,提出這個問題。我想這個主題本週稍早已經討論過,但我也很感謝有機會花一點時間分享我的觀點。因此,在現行合約下,EBR 前往 Neptune 的貨運會由 CPK 承運,從卑詩省南部的礦區運至 Camlin 交接點,之後 CN 會接手列車並將其運入碼頭。

  • Starting on January 1, about half of the volumes will continue in that manner. The other half of the volumes will move, I would say, a little bit further down the rail line before interchanging with CN, and we will, again, complete the delivery of the train into the terminal. So one hand off under the current operating model and one hand off under the future operating model. I will quantify it for all of you. The impact of this is about $0.03 of EPS to us in 2027.

    自 1 月 1 日起,大約一半的運量將會以同樣方式持續。另一半的運量則會在與 CN 交接前,沿著鐵路線再往下游多走一段;而我們也將再次完成把列車送入碼頭的交付。因此,在現行營運模式下有一次交接,在未來營運模式下也有一次交接。我會為各位量化說明。這項變動對我們在 2027 年的影響約為每股盈餘(EPS)0.03 美元。

  • But I want to assure you that the commercial team is laser-focused on backfilling those contribution dollars with other opportunities, and I have full confidence in the team. We're going to tackle that challenge head on in the same way that we've overcome the $350 million of tariff headwinds from last year. More broadly, we're going to continue to focus on selling the value of our service and pricing ahead of our rail cost inflation.

    但我想向各位保證,商務團隊正高度聚焦,會透過其他機會來補回這些貢獻美元,我對團隊充滿信心。我們會正面迎戰這個挑戰,就像我們去年克服 3.5 億美元關稅逆風一樣。更廣泛來看,我們將持續專注於銷售我們服務的價值,並讓定價走在鐵路成本通膨之前。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

    Fadi Chamoun,BMO 資本市場。

  • Fadi Chamoun - Analyst

    Fadi Chamoun - Analyst

  • Houle, Jamie, congrats both on the retirement and promotion. Ghis you for all the good conversation over the years. I appreciate that -- it's appreciated. Janet, maybe kind of just following up on the volume question, I guess, on the coal question. Your RTM are probably tracking year-to-date, if I exclude grain and for category, somewhere in that 1% range. But it seems from your commentary, you highlighted a lot of kind of opportunities on the energy side and maybe metals and sand.

    Houle、Jamie,恭喜你們一位退休、一位升遷。多年來與你們的良好交流,謝謝你們。我很感激——真的很感謝。Janet,或許接續剛才的運量問題,我想問煤炭的部分。你們的 RTM(收入噸英里)年初至今若排除穀物、按類別來看,大概在 1% 左右。但從你的評論看,你提到能源端有不少機會,可能還有金屬與砂石。

  • I just wanted to kind of get your perspective, like as we go into '27, does this nongrain business accelerate? What are the kind of the key driver of what you see potentially accelerating your growth there, right? But I know grain will have a bit of a tough comp. Maybe there's an opportunity on the potash later in the year. But -- just trying to get some perspective on that non-brain business and some of the opportunities that you're talking about as we go to '27.

    我想請教你的看法:當我們走向 2027 年時,這些非穀物業務會加速嗎?你看到可能推動那邊成長加速的關鍵驅動因素是什麼?不過我知道穀物的比較基期會比較艱難。也許今年稍晚在鉀肥上會有機會。但——我只是想更了解一下,隨著我們走向 2027 年,你所談到的非穀物業務以及一些機會的輪廓。

  • If we see an acceleration from the level you're at today or.

    我們是否會看到相較於你們目前水準的加速,或是……

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • So that's a creative waste side of trying to get me into the detail. I'll give you a little bit of high level on that one. We've been talking a lot about energy. I hope folks have been listening. This is a great multi-commodity multiyear opportunity for us. And so when we look ahead to '27, we see continued strength in the refined products into our GTA fuel terminal we see growth of NGLs going into Prince Rupert, and that's backed up by new fractionation capacity with Pembina Wolf coming online.

    你這是很有創意地想把我帶進細節裡。我先給你一些高層次的說法。我們一直在談能源。希望大家都有在聽。這對我們而言是一個很棒的、多商品、跨多年的機會。因此,當我們展望 2027 年時,我們看到精煉產品進入我們 GTA 燃料碼頭仍將維持強勁;我們也看到進入魯珀特王子港(Prince Rupert)的 NGL(天然氣液)成長,而這背後有 Pembina Wolf 新增分餾(fractionation)產能即將上線作為支撐。

  • We have incremental crude business that's coming online -- we see strength in plastics. So that overall kind of energy franchise under our petroleum and chemicals banner, we see a lot of good growth. We see continued growth in automotive. We have two plants that had been down for retooling, one in Canada and one in the US, and those are coming back online. So one of them has started up already. The other one is more kind of an end of March time line, but that's going to support continued growth in automotive.

    我們還有增量的原油業務即將上線——我們也看到塑膠需求強勁。因此,整體而言,在我們「石油與化學品」旗幟下的能源版圖,我們看到很多良好的成長。我們也看到汽車業務持續成長。有兩座工廠先前因改造而停工,一座在加拿大、一座在美國,現在都將陸續恢復運作。其中一座已經重新啟動。另一座的時程大概在 3 月底左右,但這將支撐汽車業務的持續成長。

  • I think at this point, Forest products has kind of lapped the worst of its issues. So while we don't see growth there, we don't see significant risk either. We're excited about the BHP facility coming online in the second half of the year. And we think our boots on the ground effort that kind of every one carload count, carloads that we can service well on our network, that has been producing pretty close to $100 million a quarter, as Tracy referred to.

    我認為目前林產品已經度過最糟的問題期。因此,雖然我們不預期那邊會有成長,但也不認為存在顯著風險。我們對 BHP 設施在下半年上線感到興奮。而且我們認為,我們「深入現場」的努力——也就是每一車皮都要算、只要能在我們網路上把車皮服務好——正如 Tracy 所提到的,已經帶來每季接近 1 億美元的成果。

  • And so we're going to keep the team focused on growing. And of course, we also have this new Mexican opportunity. And maybe it's worth I'd take a minute or 2 more on that one. We're pretty excited about it. Tracy kind of gave you a high-level sense of kind of the trade between Canada and Mexico, over $45 million US and trade that moves between those 2 countries. And the majority of that is actually moving towards Eastern Canada. So we think we're really well positioned there.

    因此,我們會讓團隊持續聚焦在成長上。當然,我們也有這個新的墨西哥機會。也許值得我再多花一到兩分鐘談談。我們對此相當興奮。Tracy 已經在高層次上向你說明加拿大與墨西哥之間的貿易規模,兩國之間流動的貿易額超過 450 億美元。而其中大多數實際上是流向加拿大東部。所以我們認為我們在那裡的布局非常到位。

  • I would think about that opportunity may be in three buckets. There is an immediate opportunity to extend our length of haul with the new Memphis gateway. And so we capture incremental revenue on those movements. Second, we see an opportunity to compete for rail traffic already moving, and we're confident in our ability to offer customers a compelling service. And third, there's a longer-term opportunity there to convert truck to rail.

    我會把這個機會分成三個面向來看。第一,透過新的孟菲斯(Memphis)門戶,我們有立即的機會延長我們的運輸里程(length of haul)。因此,我們能在這些運輸上取得增量營收。第二,我們看到一個機會去競爭目前已在移動的鐵路貨運量,而且我們有信心能為客戶提供具吸引力的服務。第三,長期而言,還有把卡車貨源轉換為鐵路的機會。

  • And I think as you all know, there's a pretty substantial truck market between Mexico and Canada. We believe our network together with Vera gives us a really great platform to pursue this business. So what I really love about this deal is allows us to extend our reach by leveraging our existing network while partnering with a really strong Mexican rail operator. So we have the network. We've got the customer relationships, and we're excited to drive that growth. Hopefully, that gives you a bit of context for next year.

    而且我想各位都知道,墨西哥與加拿大之間有相當可觀的卡車市場。我們相信,我們的網路加上 Vera 的合作,為我們追求這項業務提供了非常好的平台。所以我非常喜歡這筆交易的一點是:它讓我們在槓桿運用既有網路的同時,透過與一家非常強的墨西哥鐵路營運商合作,擴大我們的觸及範圍。我們有網路。我們有客戶關係,而我們也很期待推動這項成長。希望這能讓你對明年的情況多一些脈絡。

  • I appreciate the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

    Ravi Shanker,摩根士丹利。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • Jamie, congratulations as well. Tracy, a big picture question for you. It's been a year since your reset of store on the guidance in the communications. You said in the topic of your remarks that the focus is producing results. The machine is working well.

    Jamie,也恭喜你。Tracy,我有一個宏觀層面的問題。距離你在指引與對外溝通上「重設基準」已經一年了。你在開場談話中提到,重點是產出成果。這台機器運作得很好。

  • You have your team in place. What's the next leg of the story here beyond just waiting for the up cycle? And have you considered maybe having an Investor Day in 2027 or something to tell us what the next 7 years look like?

    你的團隊也已就位。除了等待景氣上行週期之外,接下來故事的下一段是什麼?你是否考慮過在 2027 年舉辦投資人日之類的活動,向我們說明接下來 7 年會是什麼樣子?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Ravi, yes, we've gone through -- as we've discussed before, there was an early evolution where it was obvious that we needed to make some investments in the network and in our locomotive fleet to get us where we needed to go. And so we went through that. To your point, we got to a point last year, middle of the year, where we brought that down to a more, what we would call a more industry level or a sustainable level. But it gave us the capacity that we need largely in the West and local fleet for Pat to respond to the opportunities that Janet is creating.

    Ravi,是的——正如我們之前討論過的,我們經歷了一個早期的演進階段,當時很明顯我們需要在路網以及機車車隊上進行一些投資,才能讓我們達到所需的狀態。因此我們完成了那一段。如你所說,我們在去年年中達到了一個點,把投入降到我們所稱的更接近產業水準、或更可持續的水準。但這也為我們提供了所需的產能,主要是在西部以及本地車隊方面,讓 Pat 能夠回應 Janet 正在創造的機會。

  • Since then, the focus has been to lean in on quarter-over-quarter, more efficiently running the operation and lean into that. We've kind of named as Fast Track, but as he said, it's just the way that we're going to operate this business, and you're going to see more of that. And we are now executing that well, and you're seeing the results from the execution of that. We also as we put Janet on this job about now how long we go Janet, a year and a bit year -- it was a renewed focus, boots on the ground, get in front of our customers that was at a time when is a pretty volatile environment with -- especially on the Canadian side with the impact of tariffs.

    自那之後,我們的重點一直是更聚焦於逐季(QoQ)的改善,以更高效率來營運並持續精實化。我們大致把它命名為「Fast Track」,但如他所說,這其實就是我們未來經營這門業務的方式,你們會看到更多這方面的作為。而我們現在也確實執行得很好,你們正看到這些執行所帶來的成果。另外,當我們讓Janet接下這個職務——現在算起來多久了,Janet?一年多一點——當時是重新聚焦:深入第一線、走到現場、直接面對客戶;那正值相當動盪的環境——尤其在加拿大端,關稅衝擊的影響很大。

  • She was very successful through that process. And not only providing solutions for our customers but also in replacing that $350 million of tariff impact. We've largely cycled through that. So we've got now the network that we need, that we've got the extension into Mexico, we're finalizing, we've got the capacity that we need, and we're continuing to invest in bits and pieces on that. So yes, we're turning our attention to growth.

    她在那個過程中非常成功。不僅為我們的客戶提供解決方案,也成功彌補了3.5億美元的關稅影響。我們基本上已經度過了那段影響期。所以我們現在已具備所需的網路布局,也已延伸到墨西哥,正在完成最後定案;我們也有需要的產能,並持續在其中一些環節進行投資。因此,是的,我們正把注意力轉向成長。

  • And as a railroad, without a doubt, we rise and fall a little bit on the strength of the economy, and we'll operate in whatever economy kind of presents itself. But we have some kind of unique asymmetric growth opportunities. Janet took you through them. We have the benefit of being the railroad of the North up in the energy sector and the benefit of having new access to Mexico, but we also are the beneficiary of a renewed Canadian administration focused on getting natural resources and other kind of industries ramped up.

    作為一家鐵路公司,毫無疑問,我們的表現會在一定程度上隨著經濟強弱而起伏,而我們也會在任何呈現出來的經濟環境下運作。但我們也有一些獨特、非對稱的成長機會。Janet已帶各位看過這些機會。我們受惠於在能源產業中作為北方鐵路的地位,也受惠於新取得的墨西哥通路;同時,我們也將受惠於加拿大新一屆政府重新聚焦於推動天然資源及其他產業加速發展。

  • So the Carmen administration has leaned into creating a more positive environment for investment, whether it be the tax changes that they've made, whether it be the permitting changes they announced a couple of months ago on the one project, one permit, one year and some of the regulatory changes that they're making. So this is a very constructive environment, and it's focused on getting Canada's natural resources, which are in high demand to markets across the continent around the world.

    因此,Carmen政府正致力於打造更有利於投資的環境,不論是他們所做的稅制調整,或是幾個月前針對某個專案宣布的許可制度改革——一個專案、一張許可、一年內完成——以及他們正在推動的一些監管變革。所以這是一個非常具建設性的環境,目標是把加拿大需求旺盛的天然資源推向整個大陸乃至全球各地的市場。

  • And CN is uniquely positioned for that, both with our connections into North America and our partnerships with the other railroads as well as with a pretty unparalleled port access into global markets on both the western and the eastern side of the country. So, we see, as we look forward, it will take some time for some of this to manifest. Janet took you through some of the near-term things we see in 2027. But there's -- she's also involved in a tremendous number of dialogues with industry around other plants as this environment gets better and better.

    而CN在這方面具備獨特優勢:一方面我們在北美的連結,以及與其他鐵路公司的合作夥伴關係;另一方面,我們在全球市場的港口通達性幾乎無可匹敵,無論是在國家的西岸或東岸皆然。因此,展望未來,我們認為其中一些效益需要時間才會逐步顯現。Janet也帶各位看過我們在2027年看到的一些近期事項。但同時——隨著環境愈來愈好——她也正與產業界就其他工廠/設施展開大量對話。

  • So we do think we'll ride and fall with the economy, we're really well positioned to do that. We've been delivering the productivity that it takes to kind of handle the ups and downs in that and the commercial flexibility, but we'll also be looking to capitalize on those unique opportunities at this network and this time kind of presents us. We are thinking through when we do the next Investor Day, I think we'll -- we're thinking through whether it will be next year shortly.

    所以我們確實認為會隨經濟起落而波動,而我們也非常有條件去因應。我們一直在交付所需的生產力,以應對這種上下波動,並具備商業上的彈性;同時,我們也會把握這個網路與這個時點所帶來的獨特機會。我們也在思考下一次投資人日的時點;我想我們——正在評估是否會在明年不久後舉行。

  • After we'll want a couple of things to sell maybe a little more clarity on the final stages of the tariff kind of environment that we may be in and the impact of that, we'll see where the merger kind of discussion settles out, but it won't be too long, ready.

    在那之前,我們希望有幾件事能更明朗一些:例如我們可能面臨的關稅環境在最後階段會如何發展及其影響;我們也會看看併購相關討論最終會落在什麼結果;但不會太久,我們就會準備好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Cowen.

    Cherilyn Radbourne,TD Cowen。

  • Cherilyn Radbourne - Equity Analyst

    Cherilyn Radbourne - Equity Analyst

  • I also wanted to start just by extending congratulations to Ghislain and Jamie. My question is whether you could give us some perspective on your sense of the state of US-Canada trade negotiations. Talk about some of the shifting trade patterns you've seen as a result of the tariff regime -- and whether you think some of those would stick even once we get a resolution.

    我也想先向Ghislain和Jamie致上恭喜。我的問題是,你們能否分享一下你們對美加貿易談判現況的看法。也請談談在關稅制度下你們觀察到的一些貿易流向變化——以及你們是否認為即使最終達成解決方案,其中一些變化仍會持續。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Cherilyn. Listen, it's been a journey, hasn't it. And I don't think that journey is over. We saw a very kind of volatile year last year with the tariffs of big tariff announcements. I think we've all managed that particularly well.

    謝謝你,Cherilyn。聽著,這一路走來確實是一段旅程,不是嗎?而我不認為這段旅程已經結束。去年我們看到非常動盪的一年,關稅方面有一些重大宣布。我想我們都把它管理得相當好。

  • There are some -- this is a sectoral story. So I think 85% of the goods, I think that's the case. Maybe it's fallen a little bit with the 338 of the goods between Canada and US travel across the border with no tariff. But there are some sectors that are disproportionately and uniquely impacted.

    這裡面有一些——這是一個按產業別來看的故事。所以我認為有85%的貨物——我想是這個比例。也許隨著那338項貨品的變動,比例略有下降——加拿大與美國之間跨境流通的貨物仍是免關稅的。但確實有一些產業受到不成比例且特別明顯的影響。

  • And we've been -- Janet has been working with our steel customers with their automotive customers with their forest parks customers. And there are some adjustments that have been made there around the kinds of markets that they're shipping into. And the question is, if we get a resolution, how much of that continues or do we revert back to the US, we'll be nimble in working with our customers on that as well.

    而我們一直——Janet一直在與我們的鋼鐵客戶、他們的汽車客戶、以及他們的林產品客戶合作。在他們出貨的市場類型方面,已經做出了一些調整。問題在於:如果我們達成解決方案,其中有多少會延續、或是否會回到以美國為主;我們也會靈活地與客戶合作因應。

  • It appears that there are some dialogues going on again after there was a near miss in August on a USMCA extension or a deal. So we'll see where that takes us. But without a doubt, this has driven two things: a level in kind of resilience and nimbleness on our company and how we manage through the volatility that things like this bring us.

    看起來在8月USMCA延長或協議一度差點擦身而過之後,現在又重新出現一些對話。所以我們會看看接下來會走向何處。但毫無疑問,這帶來了兩件事:第一,是提升了我們公司在面對這類波動時的韌性與敏捷度,以及我們如何管理這些波動所帶來的影響。

  • And secondly, and as I just mentioned, the renewed focus in Canada make to create the conditions under which industry and natural resources growth takes place and we are very supportive of that, as I said, and I think uniquely positioned to both help that and benefit from it.

    第二,如我剛才提到的,加拿大重新聚焦於創造產業與天然資源成長得以發生的條件;我們非常支持這一點,正如我所說,我也認為我們在協助推動並從中受益方面具備獨特的定位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Hoexter, BofA Securities.

    Ken Hoexter,BofA Securities。

  • Ken Hoexter - Analyst

    Ken Hoexter - Analyst

  • Congrats, Ghislain, on your retirement. It's been a great decade working with you. Appreciate all the help and discussions over time. And Jamie, certainly congrats on the new role, been a great start working with you in your prior role, so looking forward to it.

    恭喜你退休,Ghislain。過去十年能與你合作非常愉快。也感謝你一路以來的協助與交流討論。另外,Jamie,也恭喜你接下新職務;在你先前的職務上與你合作有個很好的開始,期待未來。

  • Janet, I guess I'll jump over to intermodal, right? This is the rails and CN cyclical opportunity to take share but you mentioned international demarketing lanes congestion in Asia, the impact of Rupert's labor disruption. The West Coast US ports are posting some of the best levels ever, and domestic, you noted some wildfires.

    Janet,我想我先跳到聯運(intermodal),對吧?這是鐵路與CN在景氣循環中爭取市占的機會,但你提到國際航線的去行銷(demarketing)、亞洲的壅塞、以及Rupert的勞資中斷事件的影響。美國西岸港口的表現正創下歷史最佳水準之一,而在國內方面,你也提到一些野火。

  • Maybe talk a bit about the opportunity for a rebound, talk about the win back and backfill and the time frame for that. And then just a side note, race, I don't know if you want to mention what tech projects were canceled, that was a large charge.

    能否談談反彈回升的機會、談談贏回(win back)與補缺(backfill),以及大概的時間框架。另外補充一點,Race,我不知道你是否想提一下哪些科技專案被取消了,那是一筆很大的費用。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Ken, I'll try and take it kind of one at a time there. Just for clarification, the Prince Rupert labor disruption is related to a coal terminal. So that has -- there's no issue there currently in terms of container side. The wildfires did disrupt us a little bit and that impacted mainly domestic, but it also impacted a little bit on the overseas side. We're past that now. We -- Pat and his team, frankly, did a phenomenal job kind of delivering the service recovery on that.

    好的。Ken,我會盡量一次一點地回答。先澄清一下,Prince Rupert的勞資中斷是與一座煤炭碼頭有關。所以就貨櫃這一端而言,目前沒有任何問題。野火確實對我們造成了一些干擾,主要影響國內業務,但也對海外業務有一點影響。我們現在已經度過那段影響。我們——坦白說,Pat和他的團隊在服務復原方面做得非常出色。

  • And prior to that, we had a really solid kind of run rate performance on domestic growth, and I fully expect that to continue. And so it's not quite as robust, I would say. The kind of truck market in Canada as it is in the US So we haven't had as much of the capacity reductions on the Canadian side, and that's where we're more exposed on the domestic side. But certainly, the service that Pat and his team are providing is enabling us to get more of that truck to rail conversion to get more market share wins, and that is something we see continuing in the fourth quarter and certainly into next year.

    而在那之前,我們在國內成長方面的績效跑速其實非常穩健,我完全預期這種態勢會延續。所以我會說,這並沒有那麼強勁。加拿大的卡車市場不像美國那樣,因此我們在加拿大端並沒有出現那麼多的運能縮減,而我們在國內端的曝險也比較集中在那裡。但可以肯定的是,Pat 和他的團隊所提供的服務,正讓我們能夠推動更多由卡車轉鐵路的轉換、取得更多市占率的勝利;我們看到這在第四季會持續,並且肯定會延續到明年。

  • On the international side, I guess I would say we're going to sell to the value of our service first and foremost. We have some opportunities that we're chasing down there across a number of the port terminals. We believe in the value of Prince Rupert. We're excited about the incremental value that we have at Prince Rupert with the can export facility opening.

    在國際業務方面,我想我會說,我們首先、最重要的是要以我們服務的價值來爭取客戶。我們在多個港口碼頭都有一些正在追逐的機會。我們相信魯珀特王子港(Prince Rupert)的價值。隨著魯珀特王子港的罐裝出口設施啟用,我們對於那裡所帶來的增量價值感到振奮。

  • We went up there and celebrated that opening in August, and we have Intermodeat's actually coming on, and that brings new capability for import transloading and that's going to support, I think, more stickiness with the customers. So stay tuned on that one, but we're optimistic about intermodal over the near term, maybe just not in the first half of next year. I hope that gives you a bit more color.

    我們在八月上去那裡慶祝啟用儀式,而 Intermodeat 也確實將加入,這會帶來進口轉運裝載(transloading)的新能力,我認為這將有助於提升客戶黏著度。所以請持續關注,但我們對短期內的聯運(intermodal)仍然樂觀,只是可能不會在明年上半年就反映出來。希望這能讓你更清楚一些。

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • On the IT systems, let me just take your second question there. Listen, I got to tell you that I and this team find this completely unacceptable that we would find ourselves in a position where we're taking this action, but it was a necessary one. There was a couple of systems that between us and the vendors that we have chosen, we have sofas, one with the dispatch system with PDS and that was just -- so we've regrouped on that.

    關於 IT 系統,我先回答你的第二個問題。坦白說,我和這個團隊都覺得,我們竟然會走到必須採取這個行動的地步,完全無法接受,但這是必要之舉。有幾個系統在我們與所選供應商之間出了問題;其中一個是與 PDS 的派車(dispatch)系統,我們在那件事上碰壁了——所以我們已經重新整隊處理。

  • We're being careful about our vendor selection as we go forward. And I'll talk a little bit more about the governance on this as we go forward. The second was a reorientation of our SAP 4 HANA as it hit a couple of the operating areas we originally undertaking a greenfield approach. We've reverted back to a brownfield approach. We think that that's appropriate, which meant a small portion of that work needed to be set aside.

    接下來我們會更審慎地進行供應商選擇。我也會再多談一些我們後續在治理(governance)上的作法。第二個是我們的 SAP S/4HANA 在推進到幾個營運領域時的重新定位;我們原本採取綠地(greenfield)方式。我們已改回棕地(brownfield)方式。我們認為這樣更合適,這也意味著其中一小部分工作需要先擱置。

  • So this is -- we take our capital -- our capital execution very, very seriously in this organization, and this has caused us to relook at our governance right up to me and the ELT level to reconsider our vendor selection and how we manage vendors and our internal processes. So as we refocus on these areas, you'll see different outcomes as we go forward. I'll leave it at that, Ghislain, unless you want to add anything.

    所以——我們在這個組織裡非常、非常重視資本——資本執行,而這件事促使我們重新檢視治理架構,一路到我本人與 ELT(高階領導團隊)層級,重新思考供應商選擇、我們如何管理供應商,以及內部流程。因此,當我們把焦點重新放回這些領域時,你們會在未來看到不同的結果。我就先說到這裡,Ghislain,除非你想補充。

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No, I think you covered it very well.

    不,我想你已經講得很完整了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

    RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

  • Walter Spracklin - Analyst

    Walter Spracklin - Analyst

  • Yes. Thanks very much, operator. And again, yes, congrats to Jamie and Ghislain; on your retirement, Ghislain; on your promotion, Jamie. That's great. question for Janet here.

    是的。非常感謝,接線員。再一次,恭喜 Jamie 和 Ghislain;Ghislain,恭喜你退休;Jamie,恭喜你升任。太好了。我有個問題想請教 Janet。

  • I have been speaking to your customers in the last few weeks, quite a few of your customers. I know you love that, Janet. So I'll -- my question though is on the potential headwind we might see next year from the success you had this year, and I guess, call it, market share normalization.

    過去幾週我一直在和你們的客戶交流,而且是相當多的客戶。我知道你很喜歡這樣,Janet。所以——不過我的問題是,關於明年我們可能會看到的逆風,這個逆風可能來自你們今年的成功,我想可以稱之為市占率正常化(market share normalization)。

  • A bunch of your customers are telling me that in '26, you had opened up a lot of good capacity and that allowed you to take volume that CP either ceded to you or diverted to you. So my question is for how much of that gain in '26, you see is sticky and will not revert back -- or conversely, how much of that is at risk of going back to CP and therefore, a headwind in '27?

    你們有一批客戶告訴我,在 2026 年,你們釋出了很多不錯的運能,這讓你們得以承接一些 CP 要嘛讓出的、要嘛轉給你們的貨量。所以我的問題是:你們認為 2026 年這些增量中,有多少是具黏著性、不會回流的——反過來說,又有多少存在回到 CP 的風險,因而在 2027 年形成逆風?

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • So I'm going to give you a short answer, Walter, to a bit of a long question. We have gained business this year because we have provided a great service. And I'm looking at Pat across the table here, and I feel very confident that he's going to continue to provide our customers a great service into next year. And that's the short answer. Thank you.

    Walter,我會用簡短的回答來回應你這個有點長的問題。我們今年之所以能拿到更多業務,是因為我們提供了很棒的服務。我看著桌子對面的 Pat,我非常有信心他明年也會持續為客戶提供很棒的服務。以上就是簡短的回答。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Vernon, Bernstein.

    Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

  • David Vernon - Analyst

    David Vernon - Analyst

  • And I'll echo congratulations to the team. So Tracy, the BiC39 seems like it's a bit of a mixed bag for me. There's some good stuff in there around labor and investment. There's some potential headwinds in there around interest switching. Can you tell us kind of what you're thinking about in the bill and what could move and more importantly, maybe frame if it were to go forward within or switching, what kind of headwind that might be for 2027?

    我也要再次向團隊致上恭喜。Tracy,對我來說,BiC39 似乎有點好壞參半。裡面有一些關於勞工與投資的正面內容。也有一些可能的逆風,像是關於區間轉運(interswitching)。你能談談你們對這項法案的看法、哪些部分可能會變動;更重要的是,如果它真的推進並納入(區間轉運)或擴大適用,對 2027 年可能造成多大的逆風?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, David. Yes, you're paying attention to Canadian legislation that's fantastic. We built C39 was introduced and the government is working -- is working its way through a government and they intend to bring into law by the end of the year is the current target. And it contains, as you say, quite a number of provisions, one of them on permitting. So this is the one permit, one approval, one year, which is a dramatic improvement in the kind of industrial policy in Canada and has caught the attention of many of our resource customers and industries across the country.

    謝謝你,David。是的,你有在關注加拿大立法,這很棒。C39 法案已提出,而政府正在——正在推進其立法程序;目前的目標是打算在年底前完成入法。如你所說,它包含相當多的條款,其中之一是關於許可審批(permitting)。也就是「一個許可、一個核准、一年內完成」,這對加拿大的產業政策而言是非常重大的改善,也引起了我們許多資源類客戶以及全國各產業的關注。

  • And I think you're going to see an uptick in behavior coming out of that and confidence. And and it will feed some of what Prime Minister Carmen's aspirations and targets on around investments and around getting the economy going. So that, I think, is very, very positive. It does also have a strong labor focus, and I think it kind of characterizes what we all believe, which is collective bargaining is one of our core values, and it's critical to -- the way that we think about our relationships with labor, we support that strongly.

    我認為你會看到由此帶來的行為變化與信心提升。而且這也會支撐卡門總理(Prime Minister Carmen)在投資以及推動經濟運轉方面的一些願景與目標。所以我認為這是非常、非常正面的。它也確實高度聚焦勞工議題,我想這也反映了我們共同的信念:集體協商(collective bargaining)是我們的核心價值之一,並且對——我們思考與勞工關係的方式至關重要;我們強力支持。

  • It did also recognizes the critical importance of labor in supporting the economic strength and growth and the reliability of Canada's supply chain. And so we think that the discussions going on that are particularly important. And I think you had a third one, David, that you want me to comment on? Was there a third piece in there? If not generally the interswitching -- thank you. Yes, the interswitching is just an extension of what the government has put in place before on an extended interswitching.

    它也承認勞工在支撐經濟實力與成長、以及加拿大供應鏈可靠性方面的關鍵重要性。因此,我們認為目前正在進行的相關討論特別重要。David,我想你還有第三點希望我評論?裡面還有第三個部分嗎?如果沒有的話,就一般性談談區間轉運(interswitching)——謝謝。是的,區間轉運基本上只是政府先前已推行之延伸區間轉運措施的延長。

  • We're not keen on this one, but I would tell you that we've had two pilots on it so far. -- and we haven't had any business move any differently because of it. So we disagree with the principle of it, of course, but it has not had a real impact on the volumes nor do I expect it to have an impact on the volumes going forward. If you service your customers well, then these kinds of provisions are not really impactful.

    我們並不樂見這一項,但我可以告訴你,到目前為止我們已經有兩次試點(pilot)。——而且因為這件事,並沒有任何業務出現不同的移轉。所以我們當然不同意其原則,但它對貨量並沒有造成實質影響,我也不預期未來會對貨量造成影響。如果你把客戶服務做好,這類條款其實不太會產生影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

    Konark Gupta,豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。

  • Konark Gupta - Analyst

    Konark Gupta - Analyst

  • Ecovias to Boris and Jamie and just thanks for your support you provided your street. And Jamie, welcome to the new role. Maybe first question on capacity. I mean, Tracy, Pat, the team, you guys mentioned about how much capacity you have built over the years and you're not looking to invest a lot more. I'm just wondering like how much growth can you bring to the current network before evaluating more investment opportunities down the road?

    Ecovias,致Boris和Jamie,也謝謝你們所提供的支持,你們提供了你們的街。另外,Jamie,恭喜你就任新職。也許第一個問題關於運能。我是說,Tracy、Pat、團隊,你們提到多年來建立了多少運能,而且你們不打算再投入太多。我只是想了解,在未來評估更多投資機會之前,現有網路大概還能帶來多少成長?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So let me answer that one at a high level, and I'm going to give it to Pat, who can get into the details. So we look at on the forward-looking view, we look at the volume growth that we think we can generate here. And then we size our capacity and our resources and able to accommodate that growth. The effort that we undertook over three years was largely focused on, a, the locomotive fleet and the reliability will mostly to do what we needed to do; and b, on the expansion of the Western corridor.

    我先從較高層次回答這個問題,然後交給Pat補充細節。我們以前瞻性的角度來看,會評估我們認為在這裡能帶動的運量成長。接著我們會配置相應的運能與資源,以便能夠承接這些成長。我們過去三年所做的工作,主要聚焦在:a,機車車隊以及可靠性,確保大致能完成我們需要做的事;以及b,西部走廊的擴建。

  • So we lifted the capacity of the Western Corridor by, in effect, 25% and have got two-thirds of the Ipsen sub double track, which is, we believe, no regret capital given the growth that's going on in the western part of the network. As to when we hit the next capacity limits, it's going to depend on what growth and where it comes on in the network. But I would look forward to the time when we're starting to hit up against some of the capacity that's at has put in place. Pat, do you want to make any comments on that?

    因此,我們實際上把西部走廊的運能提升了25%,並完成了Ipsen支線雙線化工程的三分之二;我們相信,考量到網路西部正在發生的成長,這屬於不會後悔的資本投入。至於何時會觸及下一個運能上限,將取決於成長的幅度以及它在網路中的發生位置。但我期待看到我們開始逐步逼近目前已建置的部分運能上限的那個時點。Pat,你要不要補充幾點?

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I would say that we've talked about it many times, the East and the South have plenty of capacity. We're looking to Janet to help us fill that up. We're excited to fill that capacity. I would say this about our Western quarter, we've been asked the question before, is there enough capacity in the West.

    是的。我會說,我們談過很多次,東部和南部都有充足的運能。我們期待Janet協助我們把那部分運能填滿。我們很期待把那個運能用滿。至於我們的西部區域,我們之前也被問過:西部是否有足夠的運能。

  • It's a historic pinch point. If you go back to 2017, 2018, the crude boom. I would say this, our investment strategy of focusing on the Western Corridor eds and sub specifically west of Edmonton, to Tracy's point, we built 25% capacity. And the story is proving itself.

    那裡歷來就是一個瓶頸點。如果回到2017、2018年的原油繁榮期。我會這麼說:我們的投資策略聚焦在西部走廊的端點與支線,特別是Edmonton以西;如Tracy所說,我們建立了25%的運能。而且這個策略正在被證明是對的。

  • We moved record grain in the Western corridor with improved service metrics, both speed, velocity. We have fewer locomotives. We have over 220 locomotives stored. We still have employees furloughed. So we are handling more volume in the Western Corridor with more capacity to grow, and we are moving faster than we have in the past.

    我們在西部走廊運送了創紀錄的穀物,同時服務指標也改善了,包括速度、周轉效率。我們使用更少的機車。我們有超過220台機車處於封存狀態。我們仍有員工處於暫時停工(furlough)狀態。所以我們在西部走廊以更高的運能處理了更多運量,而且仍有成長空間,同時我們的運行速度也比過去更快。

  • So I think the investment strategy has proved itself and it's paying dividends.

    所以我認為這個投資策略已經證明有效,而且正在帶來回報。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And let me just add one thing. We are -- like I don't want to lead you believe we're not investing anymore. Within our current capital framework, we're still investing. Pat's work underway outside Vancouver, up at Rupert. And so it's just we've come out of the big investment cycle. As we look forward, we believe that our growth is manageable within a more industry normalized level of capital.

    我再補充一點。我們——我不希望讓你以為我們不再投資了。在我們目前的資本框架內,我們仍在投資。Pat在溫哥華外圍、以及Rupert那邊都有正在進行的工作。只是我們已經走出了那一輪大型投資週期。展望未來,我們相信在更符合產業常態的資本水準下,我們的成長是可管理的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

    Brandon Oglenski,巴克萊(Barclays)。

  • Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

    Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

  • Congrats to Jamie and Ghislain as well; and Ghislain, enjoy some time on the golf course. And maybe I'll just follow up on the capital question there. Pat, you did say Fast Track you have more to come on incremental efficiencies, how contingent is that on getting volume growth within the network, especially as Janet is telling you, we need incremental service to keep winning incremental share?

    也恭喜Jamie和Ghislain;Ghislain,也祝你能在高爾夫球場上多享受一些時間。我想就資本問題再追問一下。Pat,你確實提到Fast Track在增量效率方面還會有更多成果;這在多大程度上取決於網路內的運量成長,特別是當Janet告訴你們,我們需要增量服務才能持續贏得增量市占?

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I would say this, we're going to challenge everything that we do. We're -- my job is to make sure that we're rightsizing resources to volume. So regardless of that volume, we're going to -- volume is our North Star, and we will continue to be more productive -- we are seven quarters in a row with year-over-year productivity improvement. Our cost per GTM this year is down 3%.

    我會這麼說:我們會挑戰我們所做的每一件事。我們——我的工作是確保資源配置與運量相匹配。所以不論運量如何,我們都會——運量是我們的北極星,我們會持續提升生產力——我們已連續七個季度實現年對年生產力改善。我們今年每GTM成本下降了3%。

  • Look, it's my job and this operations team job to ring out cost and waste, and we're going to continue to focus on productivity and right size all of our resources to the volume that presents itself.

    你看,擠出成本與浪費是我以及營運團隊的工作;我們會持續聚焦在生產力,並讓所有資源配置與所呈現的運量相匹配。

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • And it's my job to make sure he's well challenged in that regard.

    而我的工作就是確保他在這方面受到充分的挑戰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christian Wetherbee, Wells Fargo Securities.

    Christian Wetherbee,富國證券(Wells Fargo Securities)。

  • Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

    Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

  • Congrats Ghislain and Jamie. I guess I want to -- maybe we can pull it all together, there's some really optimistic stuff happening on the revenue side, which is exciting, and it sounds that like you got a lot of productivity kind of building here. comps are going to be a little bit challenging, I think. And obviously, there's fuel that you need to sort of see how it works out.

    恭喜Ghislain和Jamie。我想——也許我們可以把這些串起來:營收端有一些非常樂觀的進展,這很令人振奮;而且聽起來你們也在累積很多生產力動能。我認為可比基期(comps)會有點具挑戰性。當然,燃油因素也需要再觀察最後會如何發展。

  • But I guess when we pull this together, thinking either '27 or bigger picture beyond that, it sort of seem like the setup to return to double-digit EPS growth as kind of on the horizon here. I just want to get a sense, obviously, the last couple of quarters has been very good and in line with that, I want to get a sense of how sustainable you think that is as we look out to '27 or maybe sort of bigger picture?

    但我想把這些整合起來看,無論是思考到2027年或更長期的角度,似乎都在為回到每股盈餘(EPS)雙位數成長做鋪陳,彷彿已在地平線上。我想了解的是,顯然過去幾個季度表現非常好,也符合這個方向;我想請教你們認為這種表現的可持續性如何,當我們展望到2027年或更長期的情境?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Listen, what we've been focusing on is getting really good at the things that we control. And I think we've got a lot of great building blocks in place for that. We took care of the capacity constraints that we had -- we're continuing to work away on that. We've got a new kind of very focused boots-on-the-ground approach to the marketplace that has us in a position to be nimble and to provide solutions to our customers in any economic environment. And Pat, as he said, is leaned in pretty heavily on the productivity side, we're getting more out of our resources every quarter and every day.

    聽著,我們一直專注在把我們能控制的事情做到非常好。我認為我們已經建立了很多很好的基礎。我們處理了先前的運能限制——而且我們仍在持續改善。我們在市場端採取了一種新的、非常聚焦的一線(boots-on-the-ground)方法,讓我們能夠靈活應對,並在任何經濟環境下為客戶提供解決方案。而Pat如他所說,在生產力方面投入很深;我們每一季、每天都能從資源中榨出更多效益。

  • And this kind of we're focused on executing, and that has, as you say, been translating into results and that productivity creates the room for us to grow. It creates operating leverage in the business, and it creates a growing free cash profile. And we're very happy with that momentum. As we look forward, none of that changes. It's all going to continue.

    而我們的重點就是執行;正如你所說,這已轉化為成果,而生產力也為我們的成長創造空間。它為業務帶來營運槓桿,也帶來不斷成長的自由現金流輪廓。我們對這股動能非常滿意。展望未來,這些都不會改變。一切都會持續下去。

  • We have some headwinds as we look into 2027 from a growth perspective, just lapping the big grain crop. We had a record grain movement to almost all of the last green cycle. But those are the things that come and go and change, we can't control that.

    從成長角度看,展望到2027年我們會有一些逆風,主要是因為要與上一個大型穀物收成週期的高基期相比。在上一個穀物週期的幾乎整段期間,我們的穀物運輸量都創下紀錄。但這些因素會來來去去、也會改變,我們無法控制。

  • What we can control is where we have those idiosyncratic growth opportunities and leveraging our network to go get them. I think we've done a good deal process of clothing. -- with the UP on Mexico that does 2 things. It mitigates the risk of the merger to our network and our business, but it also creates opportunities. We've got a unique opportunity in the natural resource space up here in the north.

    我們能控制的是:在哪些地方存在那些特定的(idiosyncratic)成長機會,並運用我們的網路去把它們拿下。我認為我們已經做了一筆很不錯的——clothing的流程。——與UP在墨西哥的合作帶來兩件事。它降低了併購對我們網路與業務的風險,但也創造了機會。在北方這裡的天然資源領域,我們有一個獨特的機會。

  • And so we'll be looking to leverage those. So if you look through cycles, what we're looking to do is to build resilience in our business such that we can produce in any economic cycle, the kinds of results that you and we would expect in the high single-digit low double-digit kind of EPS growth over time.

    因此,我們將尋求善用這些優勢。所以如果你回顧各個景氣循環,我們要做的是提升業務韌性,使我們在任何經濟循環中都能交出你我所期望的成果,也就是隨時間推進,EPS 維持高個位數到低雙位數的成長。

  • We are getting better and better at reacting to what's happening around it, and we're getting really disciplined about pulling the levers internally on what we can control. So we're very optimistic about the future. Lots going on out there. It's still a volatile environment, but we're focused and we're going to stay disciplined.

    我們在因應周遭正在發生的事情方面做得越來越好,也在更有紀律地運用內部可控的槓桿。因此我們對未來非常樂觀。外部有很多事情正在發生。環境仍然波動,但我們會保持專注並維持紀律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Benoit Poirier, Desjardins.

    Benoit Poirier,Desjardins。

  • Benoit Poirier - Analyst

    Benoit Poirier - Analyst

  • Congratulations, Ghislain and Jamie for your new roles. Yes. Just looking on energy, Janet, you mentioned quite a lot of great opportunities going forward with respect to LNG, fracs and even some potential crude by rail opportunities longer term. Just wondering whether Petroleum and Chemicals RTM growth could be kind and could we see a double-digit volume growth for 2027.

    恭喜 Ghislain 和 Jamie 擔任新職務。是的。就能源方面,Janet,你提到未來在 LNG、壓裂砂(fracs),甚至更長期可能的原油鐵路運輸方面有不少很好的機會。想請教一下,石油與化學品(P&C)的 RTM 成長是否可能更有利?我們是否可能在 2027 年看到雙位數的運量成長?

  • And maybe, Tracy, if you could share an update on the discussion with the TCRC as the labor agreement is maturing in December 2026. If you could talk about some potential outcomes or mitigation factor you might consider. That would be great.

    另外,Tracy,如果可以的話,能否分享一下與 TCRC 的討論最新進展,因為勞動協議將於 2026 年 12 月到期。如果你能談談一些可能的結果或你們可能考慮的緩解措施。那就太好了。

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Benoit, for the question. I love the pointed net of it and the desire to extract a little more detailed information. I think we've talked a lot about energy. It's a multiyear, multi-commodity opportunity. I think we're going to see the kind of steady pace of growth. What's exciting to me is more kind of a ratable, steady growth through this year through '27.

    謝謝你,Benoit,這個問題問得很好。我喜歡你切中要點,也希望能挖到更細的資訊。我想我們已經談了很多能源。這是一個跨多年、跨多種商品的機會。我認為我們會看到穩健的成長步伐。讓我感到興奮的是,今年一路到 2027 年會是更可預期、穩定的成長。

  • When we get into mid-2028 we've got the ACE terminal coming online. When we get into late 2029, we have the Dow path to 0 project coming online. So I'm pretty happy with the way I see that growth coming on, our ability to handle the growth. And I love that it's kind of a range of commodities under the big energy umbrella. So doesn't quite get to your specific answer, but that's all I'm going to say at this point.

    到了 2028 年年中,我們的 ACE 終端將投入營運。到了 2029 年下半年,我們的 Dow「通往 0」專案將投入營運。所以我對這樣的成長節奏、以及我們承接成長的能力感到相當滿意。而且我也很喜歡在「大能源」這個範疇下涵蓋多種商品。所以這沒有完全回答你很具體的問題,但我目前就先說到這裡。

  • Tracy, I'll pass it back to you.

    Tracy,我把問題交回給你。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Benoit, on our -- on the labor front, listen, we believe in the process of collective bargaining. And we think it's an important process with our employees. It's important for our company, obviously, important for our customers and for Canada when it comes to the TCRC. So -- we're very focused on what we'd like to do and that is to get a very constructive and productive agreement at the table.

    Benoit,關於勞資方面,聽著,我們相信集體談判的程序。我們認為這是與員工之間很重要的流程。這對公司當然重要,對客戶也重要,而就 TCRC 而言,對加拿大也很重要。所以——我們非常專注於我們想做的事,也就是在談判桌上達成一份非常具建設性且富有成效的協議。

  • As you noted, this selective agreement that we're under now expires at the end of the year. We are engaged with the TCRC now, and we have discussions underway. Obviously, our focus is on is getting a deal across the line. And so I'll leave it at that for now, but it is one of our key priorities.

    如你所提到的,我們目前所適用的這份選擇性協議將於年底到期。我們目前已與 TCRC 展開接觸,相關討論也正在進行中。顯然,我們的重點是把協議談成。所以目前我就先說到這裡,但這確實是我們的關鍵優先事項之一。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

    Kevin Chiang,CIBC。

  • Kevin Chiang - Analyst

    Kevin Chiang - Analyst

  • Again, congrats Ghislain and Jamie. Maybe, John, just to clarify, so it sounds like just the Trigon terminal, you're referencing in terms of some of the I guess, the coal headwinds out in Prince Rupert. It seems like there's some concerns this could impact propane volumes as well, just given I guess, what AltaGas said this week. Just wondering how that might impact your near-term P&C outlook as you close out 2026?

    再次恭喜 Ghislain 和 Jamie。John,想確認一下,聽起來你提到的、我想是 Prince Rupert 那邊煤炭逆風,主要是指 Trigon 終端。看起來也有人擔心這可能會影響丙烷運量,尤其考量到 AltaGas 本週的說法。想請問這可能如何影響你們在 2026 年收官時石油與化學品(P&C)的短期展望?

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So maybe it's worth taking a minute to go a little higher level on this side. And let me start by saying that the federal government has been very seized with this issue. I think fully recognizing the broader issue of labor stability is really a fundamental tenet of Canada's ambitions around trade growth and trade diversification. So their support is really important in how this plays out.

    是的。所以也許值得花一點時間從更高層次來談這件事。我先說,聯邦政府對這個議題非常重視。我想他們充分認知到,勞動穩定這個更廣泛的議題,是加拿大推動貿易成長與貿易多元化雄心的基本要素。因此,他們的支持對事情如何發展非常重要。

  • To your point, from a CN perspective, you've seen the impact in the weekly volume numbers, mainly around coal and petroleum coke. There has been a small impact so far on the NGL. Some of that can be diverted to another terminal. So that's helped to mitigate some of the impact. We'll see how this plays out, the duration of how it plays out, and how resources get deployed between moving coal and moving NGLs. So that's something that may evolve if this continues in the coming days and weeks.

    就你提到的點,從 CN 的角度,你已經在每週運量數據中看到影響,主要集中在煤炭與石油焦。到目前為止,對 NGL(天然氣液)也有一些小幅影響。其中一部分可以改分流到另一個終端。因此這有助於緩解部分影響。我們會觀察事情如何發展、影響會持續多久,以及資源在運煤與運送 NGL 之間如何調度。所以如果接下來幾天到幾週情況持續,這可能會有所演變。

  • We have taken these impacts into consideration when we kind of reiterated our expectation for full year low single-digit RTM growth. And of course, as it relates to the full year guidance. So this is a short-term issue. The future on this is very bright. We're very excited about the opening of the REIT facility, which we expect towards the end of the first quarter next year.

    在我們重申全年 RTM 低個位數成長的預期時,我們已將這些影響納入考量。當然也包括與全年指引相關的部分。所以這是一個短期議題。就未來而言,前景非常光明。我們對 REIT 設施的啟用感到非常興奮,預期會在明年第一季末左右。

  • So again, a little bit of a near-term transient issue, if you will, and continue to be really excited about energy overall going forward. Thanks for your question.

    所以再說一次,這算是短期的、暫時性的影響,同時我們仍對未來整體能源業務感到非常振奮。謝謝你的提問。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Thank you all. Listen, we appreciate your time this morning. Let me just say this as we close -- as I look about the momentum we have, how the railroad is performing, I'm really proud of this team. I know we all are and how we're executing, and I remain excited about our prospects. I look forward to talking to you all more.

    好的。謝謝各位。我們很感謝大家今天早上的時間。在結束前我想說——當我看到我們目前的動能、鐵路營運表現,我對這個團隊感到非常自豪。我知道我們大家都是如此;我們的執行力也很到位,我對我們的前景仍然感到興奮。期待之後再和各位多交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference call has now ended. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect your lines.

    本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與,現在可以掛斷電話線。