Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Krista, and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian National Railway second quarter 2026 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    早安。我叫 Krista,今天將擔任各位的電話會議接線員。歡迎各位參加加拿大國家鐵路公司(Canadian National Railway)2026 年第二季財務業績電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jamie Lockwood, CN's Vice President of Investor Relations and Special Projects. Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Lockwood.

    此刻,我想將電話會議交給 CN 投資人關係與特別專案副總裁 Jamie Lockwood。各位女士先生,Lockwood 先生。

  • Jamie Lockwood - Vice-President, Investor Relations and Special Projects

    Jamie Lockwood - Vice-President, Investor Relations and Special Projects

  • Thank you, Krista. (spoken in foreign language) Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for CN's second quarter 2026 financial and operating results conference call. Joining us today on the call are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Pat Whitehead, our Chief Operations Officer; Janet Drysdale, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Ghislain, our Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你,Krista。(外語發言)歡迎各位。感謝各位參加 CN 2026 年第二季財務與營運成果電話會議。今天與會的還有:我們的總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson;營運長 Pat Whitehead;商務長 Janet Drysdale;以及財務長 Ghislain。

  • You can turn to page 2 of the presentation, which includes our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP definitions for your reference. These forward-looking statements reflect on current information and educated assumptions and include estimates, goals and expectations about the future. These involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ from what we expect.

    請翻到簡報第 2 頁,其中包含前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 定義,供各位參考。這些前瞻性陳述係基於目前資訊與合理假設,並包含對未來的估計、目標與預期。其中涉及風險與不確定性,實際結果可能與我們的預期不同。

  • As a reminder, forward-looking statements are not guarantees and factors such as economic conditions, competition, fuel prices and regulatory changes could impact actual outcomes.

    提醒各位,前瞻性陳述並非保證;經濟狀況、競爭、燃料價格與法規變動等因素,都可能影響實際結果。

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

    接下來很高興把電話會議交給 CN 總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • (spoken in foreign language) Thanks, everyone, for joining our call. I'm pleased to walk you through our second quarter results and some recent developments. This team has delivered another quarter of strong performance. EPS growth of 12% FX adjusted on 5% volume growth. We're staying focused on what we control, and this is driving results.

    (外語發言)謝謝各位參加我們的電話會議。我很高興帶各位回顧我們第二季的業績以及近期的一些進展。這個團隊再度交出強勁表現的一季。在運量成長 5% 的帶動下,經匯率調整後每股盈餘(EPS)成長 12%。我們持續專注於可控事項,而這正推動成果。

  • and we're running the reword well using service to convert customer growth opportunities, driving cost, and capital discipline and continuing to position CN for growth. With this momentum, we are raising our guidance and now expect earnings for the year of mid- to high single digits on the back of low single-digit volumes.

    我們也正以優質服務把握客戶成長機會、推動成本與資本紀律,並持續為 CN 的成長做好布局。在這股動能之下,我們上調財測指引,現在預期今年在低個位數運量成長的支撐下,全年獲利將達中至高個位數成長。

  • The engine is running well. We're executing against our strategy, and we can see the results. Our productivity continues to improve while we're supporting a customer growth across our franchise and at the same time, running a safe, fluid, efficient and reliable railroad. And we're seeing this in fuel efficiency where we delivered record performance in the first half of the year.

    引擎運轉良好。我們正按策略執行,也看得到成果。在支持我們特許經營版圖內的客戶成長同時,我們的生產力持續提升,並且維持一條安全、順暢、高效率且可靠的鐵路。這也反映在燃油效率上:我們在上半年創下了紀錄表現。

  • In labor productivity, where we're moving more volumes with less people and in locomotive productivity. Now our team is always challenging itself to use the assets we already have more efficiently. On the commercial side, our teams are focused on winning business and converting opportunities into growth.

    在人力生產力方面,我們用更少的人力運送更多的運量;在機車生產力方面亦是如此。我們的團隊始終挑戰自己,更有效率地運用既有資產。在商務面,我們的團隊專注於贏得業務,並將機會轉化為成長。

  • Now whether it's metals moving within Canada, energy-related traffic, domestic intermodal or other areas across the portfolio, we are seeing benefits of stronger commercial intensity and a team that is focused on creating value for our customers. It's all about speed and agility.

    無論是加拿大境內的金屬運輸、能源相關貨運、國內聯運(intermodal),或投資組合中的其他領域,我們都看到了更強的商務強度所帶來的效益,以及一個專注為客戶創造價值的團隊。關鍵就在速度與敏捷。

  • Simply put with strong service, disciplined operations and commercial intensity come together, results follow. And that's exactly what we've seen in the first half of the year. Now before I turn the call over to the team to walk you through the quarter in more detail, I'd like to spend a moment on the two agreements with Union Pacific that we announced this past Wednesday.

    簡而言之,當強勁服務、嚴謹營運與商務強度結合在一起,成果自然會跟上。而這正是我們在上半年所看到的。在我把電話交給團隊更詳細說明本季之前,我想先花點時間談談我們在本週三宣布與 Union Pacific 達成的兩項協議。

  • Now these were rigorous negotiations. But Union Pacific when's a great railroad, and they're good partners, and I'm happy with these discussions have branded from both of these agreements are strategic and they bring long-term benefits. Now for CN, they structurally enhance and extend our network by giving us direct and very competitive access to important markets in Kansas City and Mexico.

    這些談判相當嚴謹。不過 Union Pacific 是一家很優秀的鐵路公司,也是很好的合作夥伴;我對這些討論的成果感到滿意,因為這兩項協議都具策略性,並帶來長期效益。對 CN 而言,這些協議在結構上強化並延伸我們的網路,讓我們能直接且具高度競爭力地進入堪薩斯城與墨西哥等重要市場。

  • There will also increase the density in parts of our US network where we have capacity. And the first is a commercial agreement that extends our reach on in Mexico. The grant CN new rights for volumes between Canada and Mexico by Memphis. This gives us the competitively advantaged growth and extends our length of haul from Chicago to Memphis, densifying our Southern network.

    它們也將提升我們美國網路中部分具備產能區段的運量密度。第一項是商業協議,擴大我們在墨西哥的觸及範圍。該協議授予 CN 新權利,可經由孟菲斯(Memphis)承運加拿大與墨西哥之間的運量。這為我們帶來具競爭優勢的成長,並把我們的運輸里程從芝加哥延伸到孟菲斯,提升南部網路的密度。

  • Now in exchange for the Mexico route, we've granted UP rights to additional capacity over the EJ&E for US traffic. This monetizes a variable surplus capacity on the jet while protecting the capacity that CN needs now and into the future. Any additional capacity required to accommodate UP volumes will be funded by them. Now these provisions will be effective as soon as the definitive agreement is in place and are not contingent on the merger.

    作為墨西哥路線的交換,我們授予 UP 在 EJ&E 上針對美國貨運使用額外產能的權利。這使我們得以將 EJ&E 上可變動的剩餘產能變現,同時保障 CN 現在與未來所需的產能。為容納 UP 運量所需的任何額外產能,將由 UP 出資。一旦最終協議到位,這些條款將立即生效,且不以合併案為前提。

  • The second is a settlement agreement, and it is contingent on the STB's approval and closing of the merger. It secures for us competitive access to the Kansas City and the use of UP and ER. This positions us to compete on new business in an important rail market and provides the opportunity to lengthen our haul and traffic currently moving in this quarter.

    第二項是和解協議,須以 STB 核准並完成合併交割為前提。該協議確保我們能以具競爭力的方式進入堪薩斯城,並使用 UP 與 ER。這使我們得以在一個重要的鐵路市場中競逐新業務,並提供機會延長我們的運輸里程,以及承接目前在此走廊運行的貨運。

  • We've also secured remedy productions allowing us to provide competitive options for the two to one and three to two customers, an agreement that provisions granted to others to the FCB process will also be extended to us. Now through this strategic agreement, we have largely addressed the risk of the proposed merger to CN, and we have created new opportunities for us to grow, and we've agreed to not oppose the merger.

    我們也取得補救性條款,使我們能為「二選一」與「三選二」的客戶提供具競爭力的選項;此外,透過 FCB 程序授予其他方的相關條款也將延伸適用於我們。透過這項策略性協議,我們在很大程度上已因應擬議合併案對 CN 的風險,同時為我們創造新的成長機會,並同意不反對該合併案。

  • Overall, the opportunities created through the new strategic commercial agreement with BP and the potential merger-related remedy, improve the position of our railway and create new avenues for growth. These agreements reflect how we operate, staying close to the opportunities in front of us and acting with discipline to create long-term value for our customers and shareholders. CN is very favorably positioned in the long term.

    整體而言,與 UP 的新策略性商業協議所創造的機會,以及潛在的合併相關補救措施,將改善我們鐵路的競爭地位並開闢新的成長途徑。這些協議反映了我們的運作方式:緊貼眼前機會,並以紀律行事,為客戶與股東創造長期價值。從長期來看,CN 的定位非常有利。

  • We can see the impact of our actions in 2026. But what's more exciting to me is the opportunity that is unfolding across 2020 and beyond, supported by unique long-term tailwinds in our economic exposure and a team that is showing can drive results to cycle. So I want to thank our roads across the network for their commitment and execution this quarter. Their efforts continue to make the difference.

    我們在 2026 年已能看到自身行動帶來的影響。但更令我振奮的是,2020 年及其後(原文如此)正在展開的機會;這些機會受到我們經濟曝險所帶來的獨特長期順風支撐,以及一個已展現能在景氣循環中推動成果的團隊所支持。因此,我要感謝我們整個網路上的第一線同仁在本季的投入與執行。他們的努力持續帶來關鍵差異。

  • Now let me pass it to the team who will give you more details on the quarter. Pat, over to you.

    接下來我把時間交給團隊,為各位提供本季更多細節。Pat,交給你。

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Tracy. We entered the quarter with a clear plan centered on fluidity, reliability and productivity. The team executed that plan and the results are showing up throughout the network. I am pleased with our performance, and I want to thank the entire CNP.

    謝謝你,Tracy。我們以一個清晰的計畫進入本季,核心聚焦於順暢度、可靠性與生產力。團隊確實執行了該計畫,成果正遍及整個網路。我對我們的表現感到滿意,也要感謝整個 CNP。

  • As always, it starts with safety. Everything we accomplished starts with our people going home safely at the end of the day. Safety is foundational to our performance, our culture and the way we operate this railroad. While we are encouraged by the progress we made over the last few years, we are never satisfied as we always look for continuous improvement.

    一如既往,一切從安全開始。我們所完成的每一件事,都始於我們的同仁每天結束時能平安回家。安全是我們績效、文化以及營運這條鐵路方式的基石。儘管我們對過去幾年的進展感到鼓舞,但我們從不自滿,始終追求持續改善。

  • This year, we have seen a very active wildfire season in both Northern Ontario and British Columbia. The safety of our employees and of the communities we operate through is our first area of focus. We are monitoring the wildfires closely, both for our own operations and for our customers' operations, and we continue to work closely with local authorities.

    今年,我們在安大略省北部與卑詩省都經歷了非常活躍的野火季。員工與我們營運所經過社區的安全,是我們首要的關注重點。我們正密切監控野火情勢,無論是對我們自身營運或客戶的營運影響,並持續與地方主管機關緊密合作。

  • We have a comprehensive extreme weather, fire risk mitigation plan to reduce risk and increase prevention, monitoring and response to wildfires with our firefighting fleet deployed in strategic locations. Our mainline through Northern Ontario is open at this point, and we currently do not expect a significant impact to our business.

    我們已制定一套全面的極端天氣與火災風險緩解計畫,以降低風險並加強對野火的預防、監測與應對;我們的消防機隊已部署於策略性地點。目前我們在安大略省北部的主幹線仍保持通行,且我們目前預期對業務不會造成重大影響。

  • Now turning to operations. Productivity improvements continue to be strong. We moved 3% more gross ton miles using existing assets and capacity more efficiently. We improved crew utilization. We ran longer trains and reduced nonvalue-added activities. Locomotive productivity improved approximately 6% in the quarter.

    接著談營運。生產力改善持續強勁。我們在更有效運用既有資產與產能的情況下,總噸英里(gross ton miles)提升了3%。我們改善了乘務員(crew)利用率。我們開行更長的列車並減少非增值活動。本季機車生產力約提升6%。

  • Employee productivity improved approximately 9%. If you look only at train and engine employees, productivity improved approximately 13%. And our train length increased approximately 1%. These are important proof points because productivity is not just an operating statistic. Those improvements translate directly into our -- into stronger financial results and the gains we are delivering are structural and enduring supporting value creation well beyond the quarter.

    員工生產力約提升9%。若僅看列車與機車相關員工,生產力約提升13%。而我們的列車長度約增加1%。這些都是重要的佐證,因為生產力不只是營運統計數字。這些改善會直接轉化為——轉化為更強勁的財務成果,而我們帶來的增益具有結構性且可持續,支持在本季之外更長期的價值創造。

  • Another example is fuel efficiency. We're seeing it's already leading the industry and continues to improve. We delivered the best Q2 and first half fuel efficiency performance in our history, driving direct operating savings. The team continues to identify opportunities through train handling locomotive utilization and operating practices that reduce consumption while maintaining transit time performance.

    另一個例子是燃油效率。我們看到它已領先同業且持續改善。我們創下公司史上最佳的第二季及上半年燃油效率表現,帶來直接的營運節省。團隊持續透過列車操控、機車利用率與營運作業方式找出機會,在維持運輸時效表現的同時降低油耗。

  • Now let me provide an update on Fast Track. Our cross-functional efforts focused on continuous improvement throughout the network. It is about challenging how we work, eliminating waste, improving terminal productivity and making the railroad more efficient. We have essentially completed the review across the initial list of major terminals. We continue to work across intermodal terminals and our network operation centers while performing a look-back process of the completed terminals.

    接下來我更新一下 Fast Track。我們的跨部門努力聚焦於全網路的持續改善。這是要挑戰我們的工作方式、消除浪費、提升場站(terminal)生產力,並讓鐵路營運更有效率。我們基本上已完成對最初列出的主要場站清單之檢視。我們持續在聯運場站與網路營運中心推進,同時對已完成的場站進行回顧(look-back)流程。

  • So far this year, we have close to $100 million in realized benefits. Importantly, these improvements have been achieved while maintaining strong service performance. Fast Track is a part of how we operate this railroad. The mindset is continuous improvement, and we believe there are additional opportunities ahead as the work continues.

    截至今年目前為止,我們已實現接近1億美元的效益。重要的是,這些改善是在維持強勁服務表現的同時達成的。Fast Track 已成為我們營運這條鐵路的一部分。其核心心態是持續改善,我們相信隨著工作持續推進,未來仍有更多機會。

  • Turning to the next slide. The network is running well. Car velocity and network train speed were largely flat year over year while handling stronger volumes and maintaining solid customer service. And these metrics as well as dwell improved during the quarter after still being impacted by the tail end of winter in April. We are seeing strong first and last mile execution in the type of operating performance that creates opportunities for Janet and her came to win additional business.

    接著看下一張投影片。整體網路運行良好。在處理更強勁的運量並維持穩健客戶服務的同時,車輛周轉速度(car velocity)與網路列車速度(network train speed)年對年大致持平。而這些指標以及停留時間(dwell)在本季也有所改善;4月仍受到冬季尾聲影響。我們看到首末哩(first and last mile)執行強勁,這種營運表現為 Janet 和她的團隊創造了贏得更多業務的機會。

  • Let me spend a moment on the Western region because it is a good proof point of what this network is capable of doing. The West handled record grain volumes during the quarter as well as higher year over year refined petroleum products, potash, NGLs and other commodities.

    我想花點時間談西部地區,因為這是這個網路能力的良好佐證。本季西部處理了創紀錄的穀物運量,同時精煉石油產品、鉀肥、天然氣液(NGLs)及其他商品的運量也較去年同期增加。

  • At the same time, car velocity, train speed and dwell improved roughly 3%. That combination matters. It demonstrates that the capacity investments we have made disciplined train planning and strong execution are allowing us to absorb growth while improving overall fluidity, moving more freight with solid service and improving asset utilization.

    同時,車輛周轉速度、列車速度與停留時間(dwell)約改善3%。這種組合很重要。它顯示我們所做的產能投資、嚴謹的列車計畫以及強而有力的執行,使我們能在提升整體流動性的同時吸收成長,以穩健服務運送更多貨物並提升資產利用率。

  • The team has done a solid job this quarter, and I'm proud of the progress we've made. The railroad is performing well. The productivity initiatives are gaining traction. The benefits from Fast Track are becoming increasingly visible. We are pleased with the progress and just like safety performance, we're never satisfied.

    團隊本季表現扎實,我為我們取得的進展感到自豪。鐵路營運表現良好。生產力計畫正逐步見效。Fast Track 帶來的效益愈來愈明顯。我們對進展感到滿意,但就像安全表現一樣,我們永遠不會自滿。

  • Lastly, our team is excited around the new opportunities announced in the MOUs with Union Pacific. I'm working closely with Eric and the Union Pacific team to operationalize the agreement. Together, we are hammering out details on the connections between our two railroads.

    最後,我們的團隊對與 Union Pacific 簽署之諒解備忘錄(MOU)所宣布的新機會感到振奮。我正與 Eric 及 Union Pacific 團隊密切合作,將協議落地並付諸營運。我們正共同敲定兩家鐵路之間銜接(connections)的細節。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Janet.

    接下來我把時間交給 Janet。

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Pat, and good morning, everyone. As you've just heard, the railroad is running really well, and that's translating into strong service for our customers. Revenues were up 11% year over year on 5% RTM growth. The close alignment between operations and sales and our strong service levels are driving success across the network. Underpinning that is how effectively we are working with our customers.

    謝謝你,Pat,各位早安。正如各位剛才聽到的,鐵路運行得非常好,並轉化為對客戶的強勁服務。在 RTM 成長5%的帶動下,營收年對年成長11%。營運與銷售之間的緊密協同,以及我們強勁的服務水準,正推動全網路的成功。其基礎在於我們與客戶合作的效率。

  • Let me give you a few quick examples. Our metals volumes were up 11% in the second quarter despite the significant tariffs on steel and aluminum as we work with our customers to create new supply chain. We improved our commercial speed and agility to capitalize on market changes, converting spot opportunities in a number of segments, including butane and plastics.

    我快速舉幾個例子。儘管鋼鐵與鋁材面臨顯著關稅,我們仍與客戶合作打造新的供應鏈,使第二季金屬運量年對年成長11%。我們提升了商務速度與敏捷性以掌握市場變化,在多個領域將現貨機會轉化為業務,包括丁烷與塑膠。

  • And we continue to collaborate for longer-term growth. Our partnership with Keyera and AltaGas is a great example of how we're working strategically with our customers to efficiently get their products to global markets.

    我們也持續合作以推動更長期的成長。我們與 Keyera 及 AltaGas 的合作夥伴關係,就是我們如何以策略方式與客戶合作、有效率地將其產品送往全球市場的絕佳例子。

  • Our broad boots-on-the-ground effort also continues, building on the momentum we established over the last few quarters and across a range of commodities. Same-store pricing remains ahead of our rail cost inflation. However, in the quarter, it was partly offset by mix.

    我們廣泛的第一線(boots-on-the-ground)拓展工作也在持續推進,延續過去幾季建立的動能,並涵蓋多種商品。同店定價(same-store pricing)仍領先於我們的鐵路成本通膨。不過,本季部分被產品組合(mix)所抵銷。

  • Let me walk you through the key second quarter highlights. We delivered another exceptional quarter in grain, continuing to set records for volumes of Western Canadian grain and our US grain performance was strong across the board: corn, soybeans, and ethanol.

    我帶各位看一下第二季的重點亮點。我們在穀物業務再度交出卓越的一季,持續刷新加拿大西部穀物運量紀錄;而我們在美國的穀物表現也全面強勁:玉米、大豆與乙醇。

  • We also delivered a record second quarter for potash shipments with solid service enabling us to capitalize on strong demand, both domestic and exports. Petroleum & Chemicals RTMs were up 11%. In refined products, we increased long-haul shipments from Western to Eastern Canada, and we continue to grow our volumes into the GTA fuel terminal, growing RTMs in this segment by nearly 30%. We grew NGL RTMs by over 15%, demonstrating the value of our Prince Rupert export supply chain as well as the team's ability to convert on a number of spot butane opportunities.

    我們的鉀肥出貨也創下第二季紀錄;穩健的服務使我們得以掌握強勁需求,包含國內與出口。石油與化學品 RTM 年對年成長11%。在精煉產品方面,我們增加了從加拿大西部到東部的長途運輸出貨,並持續提升進入大多倫多地區(GTA)燃料終端的運量,使該領域 RTM 成長近30%。我們的天然氣液(NGL)RTM 成長超過15%,展現 Prince Rupert 出口供應鏈的價值,以及團隊在多個丁烷現貨機會上的轉化能力。

  • Domestic Intermodal outperformed with solid growth into Canada. In Overseas Intermodal, volumes were up sequentially, but lower year over year, reflecting tough comps due to last year's pull forward of volumes on tariff uncertainty. In automotive, growth reflected share gains as well as a shift in traffic flows toward longer haul movements driving the stronger RTM versus carload performance.

    國內聯運表現優於預期,對加拿大的運量穩健成長。在海外聯運方面,運量較前一季增加,但年對年下降,反映去年因關稅不確定性而提前拉貨所造成的高基期。汽車業務的成長反映市占提升,以及運輸流向轉向更長距離運輸,使 RTM 的增幅高於車皮量(carload)表現。

  • In Metals & Minerals, I have to say the team has done an outstanding job working with our customers to mitigate the impact of the tariffs, growing domestic and cross-border scrap shipments and shifting steel towards longer-haul domestic Canadian lanes. We had a notable mix and -- mix shift in frac sand with less long-haul shipments into Alberta and an increase in shorter haul shipments within the US.

    在金屬與礦產方面,我必須說團隊與客戶合作以緩解關稅影響的表現非常出色:提升國內與跨境廢鋼出貨,並將鋼材轉向加拿大境內更長距離的運輸走廊。壓裂砂(frac sand)的產品組合出現明顯變化——長途運往亞伯達省的出貨減少,而美國境內較短途的出貨增加。

  • In Forest Products, we increased our shipments in packaging products and helped our customers to diversify their export markets for wood pulp. Lumber shipments also increased this quarter, some of which is an easier year-over-year comp, and there is likely some pull forward there. Coal RGMs were flat for the quarter as increased US thermal coal exports were offset by production challenges affecting Canadian West Coast volumes.

    在林產品方面,我們增加了包裝產品的出貨,並協助客戶分散木漿的出口市場。木材出貨本季也增加,其中一部分是因年對年比較基期較容易,且可能也有部分提前出貨。煤炭 RGM 本季持平;美國動力煤出口增加,被影響加拿大西岸運量的生產挑戰所抵銷。

  • Moving now to slide 10 and turning to the second half of the year. We expect strength in grain to be the key driver of our TAM growth in the third quarter. Q4 year-over-year comparables for grain will be more challenging, though, as we lap the record crop and CN's record performance.

    現在轉到第10頁,並聚焦於下半年。我們預期穀物的強勁表現將成為第三季推動我們TAM成長的關鍵驅動因素。不過,第四季穀物的年對年比較將更具挑戰,因為我們將面對去年創紀錄的收成以及CN的創紀錄表現所形成的高基期。

  • Our energy franchise continues to be a real bright spot. We expect ongoing strength in refined products, new crude business and additional fractionation capacity supporting long-term growth in NGL exports via Prince Rupert.

    我們的能源業務版圖持續是一大亮點。我們預期成品油的持續強勁、新增原油業務,以及額外的分餾產能,將支持透過魯珀特王子港(Prince Rupert)進行NGL出口的長期成長。

  • Domestic Intermodal is expected to remain strong, reflecting sustained momentum from recent gains. Overseas Intermodal is expected to be weak in the second half, in part related to the demarketing of certain low profitability shipments through the Port of Vancouver.

    國內聯運預期將維持強勁,反映近期增量所帶來的動能持續。海外聯運預期在下半年將偏弱,部分原因與我們在溫哥華港對某些低獲利貨運進行去行銷(demarketing)有關。

  • In automotive, share gains and strong offshore imports into Canada are offsetting overall flat production.

    在汽車業務方面,市占提升以及加拿大強勁的海外進口,正在抵銷整體持平的產量。

  • In Metals & Minerals, we see a steady run rate for steel and aluminum and growth in frac sand shipments to Northeast BC, partly offset by lower iron ore.

    在金屬與礦物方面,我們看到鋼鐵與鋁維持穩定的運行水準,且運往卑詩省東北部的壓裂砂(frac sand)出貨成長,部分被鐵礦石下滑所抵銷。

  • In forest products, well, no sign yet that housing starts will improve. With respect to coal, demand remains supportive for US exports, Canadian coal shipments will depend on mine level production and operational conditions.

    在林產品方面,嗯,目前仍看不到新屋開工將改善的跡象。至於煤炭,美國出口需求仍具支撐;加拿大煤炭出貨則將取決於礦場層級的產量與營運狀況。

  • Now a quick word on the commercial agreements that we've reached with UP. The team is very excited about the opportunity to extend our length of haul, and we're even more excited that we've secured for the long term, a shorter and faster route to Mexico and direct access to Fairfax. For sure, more to come on that.

    接著簡要談一下我們與UP達成的商業協議。團隊對於延長我們運輸里程(length of haul)的機會感到非常振奮,而更令人興奮的是,我們已為長期取得一條更短、更快通往墨西哥的路線,並可直接連接Fairfax。這部分後續肯定還會有更多更新。

  • So putting all of that together, our strategy is delivering. We are growing volumes that we can serve as well and maintaining our pricing discipline.

    綜合以上,我們的策略正在奏效。我們在擴大我們能夠良好服務的運量,同時維持我們的定價紀律。

  • And looking beyond 2026, we remain excited about the multiyear, multi-commodity growth prospects across our franchise, especially in energy and ag and with our new connection to Mexico. And I am confident in and very proud of the commercial team's continued commitment to find new opportunities and to capture the volumes that best fit our network. They are staying close to our customers and moving with urgency and agility.

    展望2026年之後,我們仍對我們業務版圖在多年期、跨多種商品的成長前景感到振奮,尤其是在能源與農業,以及我們新增的墨西哥連結方面。我也對商務團隊持續致力於尋找新機會、並爭取最適合我們網路的運量,充滿信心且深感自豪。他們緊貼客戶需求,並以緊迫感與敏捷性推進。

  • We're also working closely with our short line partners who are driving economy plus growth, continuing to leverage our business and industrial development team to attract new facilities onto rail and facilitate expansion and we're staying very close to the opportunities being created by Canada's trade diversification agenda.

    我們也正與推動Economy Plus成長的短線鐵路夥伴密切合作,持續運用我們的業務與產業開發團隊,吸引新設施改採鐵路運輸並促進擴建,同時也緊密關注加拿大貿易多元化議程所創造的機會。

  • CN's network is uniquely situated to connect new sources of resource production with domestic and global markets. And with the capacity and network investments already in place, CN is well positioned to deliver on that growth at low incremental cost.

    CN的網路具備獨特的地理優勢,可將新的資源生產來源連結至國內與全球市場。而在既有的產能與網路投資已到位的情況下,CN具備良好條件以低增量成本實現該成長。

  • Ghislain, over to you.

    Ghislain,交給你。

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • (spoken in foreign language) I'll begin with a review of our second quarter performance before turning to our updated outlook for the balance of the year. Starting on slide 12, our results came in ahead of our initial expectations and reflect the strong operational and commercial execution highlighted by Pat and Janet.

    (以外語發言)我將先回顧我們第二季的表現,接著說明我們對今年剩餘期間的最新展望。從第12頁開始,我們的結果優於最初預期,反映Pat與Janet所強調的強勁營運與商務執行力。

  • Second quarter reported diluted EPS was $2.06, and up 10% from last year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $2.08, up 11% from last year or $2.09, 12% higher on an exchange adjusted basis. These results reflect an adjustment of $17 million in advisor fees related to industry consolidation. As Tracy mentioned, the engine is running well.

    第二季公告稀釋後每股盈餘(EPS)為2.06美元,較去年成長10%;調整後稀釋EPS為2.08美元,較去年成長11%,或在匯率調整基礎下為2.09美元、年增12%。這些結果反映了與產業整併相關的顧問費用調整項目1,700萬美元。如Tracy所提到的,引擎運轉良好。

  • Our network is fluid. Our service is reliable, and we're converting volume growth to the bottom line. The solid performance from Pat and the operating team allowed us to deliver an adjusted operating ratio of 62.2%, a 50 basis point increase versus last year's operating ratio of 61.7% and impacted by higher year over year fuel prices in the quarter, which had a diluted impact on the operating ratio of 210 basis points.

    我們的網路運行順暢。我們的服務可靠,且我們正將運量成長轉化為獲利。Pat與營運團隊的穩健表現,使我們交出調整後營業比率62.2%,較去年61.7%上升50個基點;其中亦受到本季燃料價格年對年上升的影響,對營業比率造成210個基點的稀釋性影響。

  • Year-to-date, free cash flow is up approximately 20% or roughly $300 million driven by stronger earnings, disciplined capital spending and continued attention on working capital partially offset by higher required tax payments. Leverage at the end of Q2 was 2.6 times, and we will continue to be opportunistic on our current share buyback program. We continue to maintain a 2.7 times adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA target for 2026.

    年初至今,自由現金流約成長20%,約增加3億美元,主要由更強勁的獲利、嚴謹的資本支出,以及持續關注營運資金所帶動,但部分被較高的必要稅款支付所抵銷。第二季末槓桿倍數為2.6倍,我們將持續在現行庫藏股回購計畫上把握機會、視情況而定。我們仍維持2026年調整後負債對調整後EBITDA為2.7倍的目標。

  • Turning to slide 13. Let me walk you through a few key operating expense categories for the quarter on an exchange-adjusted basis. Labor was 3% higher driven by general wage increases and approximately $40 million increase in year-over-year incentive compensation which were partially offset by 5% lower average head count and strong labor productivity.

    接著看第13頁。我將以匯率調整基礎,帶大家看幾個本季主要營運費用類別。人事成本年增3%,主要受一般薪資調升以及年對年約4,000萬美元的激勵薪酬增加所帶動,但部分被平均人力編制下降5%以及強勁的勞動生產力所抵銷。

  • Fuel expense was about $250 million higher than in the same period last year due to higher fuel prices with the impact of higher volumes offset by record fuel efficiency. With a sharp increase in oil prices in March and the decrease in oil prices in June, fuel did not impact EPS in the quarter. However, as noted, it had a 210 basis point unfavorable impact to the operating ratio.

    燃料費用較去年同期增加約2.5億美元,原因是燃料價格較高;運量增加的影響則被創紀錄的燃油效率所抵銷。由於3月油價大幅上升、6月油價下跌,燃料在本季對EPS沒有造成影響。然而,如前所述,其對營業比率造成210個基點的不利影響。

  • Purchase services and material was up 11%, driven by advisory costs higher trucking and vessel costs, mostly due to stronger volumes. Other expenses were largely flat year over year.

    外購服務與材料費用上升11%,主要由顧問成本增加、卡車與船舶成本上升所帶動,且多數與運量更強勁有關。其他費用年對年大致持平。

  • Moving to slide 14, let me provide some visibility into 2026. The strong execution of our team, combined with stronger volumes through the first half, gives us increased confidence in the year. As a result, we are raising our full year outlook. As Tracy mentioned, we now assume low single-digit RTM growth for 2026 versus our original assumption of flattish volumes for the year. So we now expect mid- to high single-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth for the year.

    轉到第14頁,我提供一些對2026年的能見度。團隊的強勁執行力,加上上半年更強的運量,使我們對今年更有信心。因此,我們上調全年展望。如Tracy所提到,我們目前假設2026年RTM將呈現低個位數成長,而非原先假設的全年運量持平。因此,我們現在預期全年調整後稀釋EPS將呈現中到高個位數成長。

  • Our updated outlook assumes a constructive demand environment in the second half of the year with year-over-year comparisons becoming more challenging, particularly as we move into the fourth quarter. We continue to see uncertainty related to fuel and foreign exchange and broader macroeconomic volatility remains present, including potential changes in trade and policy discussions.

    我們更新後的展望假設下半年需求環境具建設性,但年對年比較將更具挑戰,尤其進入第四季時。我們仍看到燃料與外匯相關的不確定性,且更廣泛的總體經濟波動仍然存在,包括貿易與政策討論可能出現的變化。

  • We are encouraged by the momentum we are seeing year-to-date and remain grounded in our assumptions for the balance of the year. Accordingly, we continue to assume that WTI will be in the range of USD80 to USD110 per barrel. However, we have updated our FX assumption from $0.73 to the current spot rate of $0.71 for the balance of the year. Our effective tax rate continues to be in the range of 25% to 26%.

    我們對年初至今所見的動能感到鼓舞,同時對今年剩餘期間的假設仍保持務實。因此,我們仍假設WTI將落在每桶80至110美元的區間。不過,我們已將全年剩餘期間的匯率假設,從0.73更新為目前即期匯率0.71。我們的有效稅率仍維持在25%至26%的區間。

  • To wrap up, we are pleased with our performance in the quarter and first half. The team has executed well volumes have trended ahead of our expectations. Free cash flow remains strong, and the network is demonstrating the earnings leverage we've been working to build.

    最後總結,我們對本季及上半年的表現感到滿意。團隊執行到位,運量走勢優於我們的預期。自由現金流依然強勁,而網路正展現我們一直致力打造的獲利槓桿。

  • Let me pass it back to Tracy.

    我把時間交回給Tracy。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ghis. Thank you all. Now as you can tell, we've got great momentum, and we're excited about the future. And with that, Krista, we're ready to take questions.

    謝謝,Ghis。也謝謝各位。如各位所見,我們動能非常強,並對未來感到振奮。那麼,Krista,我們準備開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

    Walter Spracklin,RBC資本市場。

  • Walter Spracklin - Analyst

    Walter Spracklin - Analyst

  • Congratulations on a good quarter here. I was wondering if you could go into the MOU, look at the and give us an indication of the total addressable market that you're looking at in that -- on that route. In particular, what markets do you are you planning on focusing on?

    恭喜本季表現不錯。我想請你們談談這份MOU,並就該路線所對應的總可服務市場(TAM)規模給我們一些指引。特別是,你們計畫聚焦哪些市場?

  • And more importantly, how can -- how are you planning to assess -- and how will you be communicating the assessment of how well you're doing in terms of ramping up any new customer wins or volume that you're getting on that -- on those -- on that new route.

    更重要的是,你們打算如何評估——你們計畫如何評估——以及你們將如何溝通你們在提升任何新客戶得標或在那條——那些——那條新路線上所取得的量方面,做得有多好之評估結果。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Walter, listen, thanks for the question. There's two agreements, as you know, the first agreement is the commercial one. And that will start as soon as we get the definitive agreement in place. And so we will have immediate access directly to Ferro mix in Mexico through the Memphis Gateway. And so it does a couple of things for us for volumes that are already moving that extends our halt from what is essentially Chicago down to Memphis, which is a benefit but it also allows us to more directly market with FXE in Mexico for sell-on volumes and northbound volume.

    Walter,聽著,謝謝你的提問。如你所知,有兩項協議,第一項是商業協議。一旦我們把最終協議敲定,它就會開始生效。因此,我們將可透過孟菲斯樞紐(Memphis Gateway)立即直接取得墨西哥的 Ferro mix。這對我們有幾個作用:對於已在運行的貨量而言,等於把我們的運輸延伸段從基本上是芝加哥一路延伸到孟菲斯,這是好處;同時也讓我們能在墨西哥與 FXE 更直接地行銷,以爭取轉售貨量以及北向貨量。

  • So we will be going after all markets including those that are moving on rail right now as well as what we all know is a pretty expansive truck market between Mexico and Canada. I think it's in the area of $3 billion. So we're getting organized on what that push is going to look like. What this does is gives that market another competitive option. We know those that have gone after the truck-to-rail conversion, most haven't met the targets that they put in place this is tough, but we're going to -- we've got a great corridor here, an advantage corridor.

    因此,我們會鎖定所有市場,包括目前已透過鐵路運輸的市場,以及我們都知道在墨西哥與加拿大之間相當龐大的卡車運輸市場。我認為規模大約在 30 億美元左右。所以我們正在就這波推進行動會長什麼樣子進行組織與規劃。這件事的意義在於,為該市場提供另一個具競爭力的選項。我們知道,過去嘗試推動「卡轉鐵」(truck-to-rail)轉換的業者,多數並未達成他們原先設定的目標,這很難,但我們將——我們在這裡有一條很棒的走廊,一條具優勢的走廊。

  • We're going to put a shoulder into it and we're putting those plans in place right now. The other agreement, of course, gives us access into Kansas City, which is another great marketplace, but we don't get that, of course, that one is contingent upon the merger being successful and being put in place. And so that will be in the future, we don't have access to that market right now.

    我們會全力以赴,我們也正在把這些計畫落地。當然,另一項協議讓我們得以進入堪薩斯城,這也是另一個很棒的市場,但我們目前當然還拿不到;那一項取決於併購是否成功並完成落實。因此那會是在未來,我們現在尚未進入該市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Cowen.

    Cherilyn Radbourne,TD Cowen。

  • Cherilyn Radbourne - Equity Analyst

    Cherilyn Radbourne - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to use my one to ask Janet, if she could give some more color on the year-to-date growth of the energy business. Anything you can share about expected growth next year and the extent to which visibility to 2027 and beyond has improved given the events over the last six months.

    我想把我這一題用來問 Janet,是否能就能源業務年初至今的成長提供更多細節。你能否分享一下明年預期的成長,以及鑑於過去六個月發生的事件,對 2027 年及更長期的能見度提升到什麼程度。

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Cherilyn. I appreciate the question. I think what we're seeing is a lot of strength in the refined products. So that's mainly gasoline and diesel. And of course, that's associated with our new GTA fuel terminal we did start ramping up phase two of that terminal, roughly in April of this year.

    謝謝你,Cherilyn。我很感謝這個問題。我認為我們看到的是成品油(refined products)非常強勁。主要是汽油與柴油。當然,這與我們新的 GTA 燃料終端有關;我們大約在今年 4 月開始推升該終端的第二期產能。

  • So certainly, we are seeing those volumes continue to grow, and we'll have some full year effect of that benefit as well in 2027. But that's a really solid piece of the market, I think, that we've captured here in Ontario, and it's going to continue to grow, but maybe more slowly than the initial ramp-up phase.

    因此,我們確實看到這些貨量持續成長,而在 2027 年我們也會享受到該效益的全年貢獻。但我認為,這是我們在安大略省所掌握的一塊非常扎實的市場,未來仍會持續成長,只是可能會比初期爬坡階段更為緩慢。

  • On the NGLs, of course, we have expansion continuing at the Port of Prince Rupert. And we have the backup of the product that's being drilled and made available, including through the new fractionation capacity that I mentioned that will be coming online in the second half year.

    至於 NGL(天然氣液體),我們在魯珀特王子港(Port of Prince Rupert)的擴建仍在持續。而供給端也有產品的支撐,來自持續鑽探並可供出貨的產量,其中也包括我提到、將在下半年上線的新分餾(fractionation)產能。

  • So I think -- when we think about the energy franchise, this is a multi-commodity within energy, multi-commodity as well as a multiyear opportunity. And of course, I continue to make reference to the agreement that we've struck in regards to the ACE terminal. So that's something that we're going to see probably in the 2028 or so time frame.

    所以我認為——當我們思考能源版圖(energy franchise)時,這是在能源之內的多品項(multi-commodity),同時也是一個跨多年的機會。當然,我也持續提到我們就 ACE 終端所達成的協議。因此,那大概會在 2028 年左右的時間框架內看到成果。

  • So a great growth story on energy. Thanks for the question.

    所以能源是一個很棒的成長故事。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

    Ken Hoexter,美國銀行。

  • Ken Hoexter - Analyst

    Ken Hoexter - Analyst

  • So maybe just continuing on some yield thoughts, right, up 6% in the quarter on revenue per RTM. Maybe just break down fuel and thoughts on core underlying pricing and thoughts into the second half. And -- and I think I heard Pat toss in there's no impact to the wildfire to results. I just want to make sure I heard that. And then given you don't oppose the merger, do you see that as raising the odds of getting it past the finish line?

    那也許就延續一些關於收益率(yield)的想法,對吧,本季每 RTM 收入(revenue per RTM)成長 6%。也許請拆解一下燃油因素,以及對核心、基礎定價的看法,還有對下半年的想法。另外——我想我聽到 Pat 提到野火對結果沒有影響。我只是想確認我有沒有聽對。然後,既然你們不反對這項併購,你是否認為這提高了讓它順利過關的機率?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Ken. That's a lot of questions in one question. Let me see if I can start this. So Janet, do you want to say a couple on pricing and then Ghis on the fuel impact, if you could reiterate it. And then I think, Pat, you've pretty much covered welfares I'll close on it.

    Ken。你把很多問題塞在同一個問題裡。我看看我能不能先開個頭。Janet,你要不要先談幾句定價,然後 Ghis 請你重申一下燃油影響。至於最後那個,我想 Pat 你基本上已經涵蓋了相關內容,我會做個收尾。

  • So Ken, I mean, kind of simple terms, we continue to price ahead of our rail cost inflation. For sure, the fuel was a benefit to us as it was to all of the industry in the quarter, bumping up the revenue per RTM revenue per carload. We did have by segment, some changes in hole that also would have factored into some of those changes. I expect that pattern to continue certainly into the third quarter. But the underlying point I want to make is the pricing ahead of our rail cost inflation.

    Ken,用比較簡單的說法,我們持續讓定價走在鐵路成本通膨之前。確實,燃油在本季對我們有利,對整個產業也一樣,推升了每 RTM 收入與每車皮收入(revenue per carload)。我們在分部別上也有一些組合(mix)變化,這也會影響其中部分變動。我預期這種型態至少會延續到第三季。但我想強調的核心點是:定價走在我們的鐵路成本通膨之前。

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay. Maybe just, Ken, some visibility on fuel. As I said in my opening remarks, fuel in the second quarter did not have any impact on EPS but did have a dilutive impact on OR by 210 basis points.

    好的。Ken,補充一些燃油的能見度。如我在開場談到的,第二季燃油對 EPS 沒有任何影響,但對 OR(營運比率)有 210 個基點的稀釋影響。

  • Fuel moves, as you know, a lot day in, day out. If fuel prices remain where they are and the correlation between OHD and WTI remains essentially where it is, then we think that fuel in the third quarter could be a tailwind by close to $0.15 and a tailwind of about 100 basis points in the third quarter. And then in the fourth quarter, would be a little less would be a tailwind of around $0.10 and a tailwind on OR of about 30 basis points.

    如你所知,燃油每天都在波動。如果燃油價格維持在目前水準,且 OHD 與 WTI 之間的相關性基本維持現狀,那麼我們認為第三季燃油可能帶來接近 0.15 美元的順風,並使第三季 OR 約有 100 個基點的順風。而第四季會少一些,大約是 0.10 美元的順風,OR 的順風約 30 個基點。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Pat, wildfires?

    Pat,野火呢?

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So we are monitoring wildfires in Northern Ontario and in British Columbia. We are operational in both locations and minimal impact to the railroad as far as it relates to infrastructure. We did see some bunching clearly of traffic as we shut down in Northern Ontario and continue to work our way through that. So minimal impact.

    我們正在監控安大略省北部與卑詩省的野火。我們在兩地都維持營運,就基礎設施而言,對鐵路的影響很小。我們確實看到一些運量明顯出現擁塞(bunching),因為我們在安大略省北部曾停運並正持續把積壓消化掉。所以影響很小。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And as far as the -- our agreement on the merger, the settlement agreement, Ken, the -- as we thought about this, as you know, we've been pro competition, and we've been talking a lot about the need for more competition. And we had some concerns around how the merger would impact our network, our business, our customers.

    至於——我們對併購的協議,也就是和解協議,Ken——當我們思考這件事時,如你所知,我們一直支持競爭,也一直在談需要更多競爭。而我們先前對併購將如何影響我們的路網、業務與客戶有一些疑慮。

  • And so as we've come to this agreement, we are satisfied that we've mitigated much of that concern. But we've also created the opportunity that we've always said we wanted to do, which was extend our reach into broader markets. And we've done that with the Kansas City expansion with the two to one and three to twos.

    因此,隨著我們達成這項協議,我們認為已經緩解了多數疑慮。同時,我們也創造了我們一直說想做的機會,也就是把觸角延伸到更廣的市場。我們透過堪薩斯城的擴張,以及「二對一」與「三對二」的安排做到了這點。

  • And so this is largely taking care of what are our concerns. Now the merger is broader, and I know that it will go through what I expect will be a very thoughtful and rigorous process by the STB. They'll do a great job of that. And we'll watch that play out starting with what I heard Jim say yesterday was the submission of the next level of materials next week.

    所以這在很大程度上解決了我們的疑慮。不過併購本身牽涉更廣,我知道它將進入我預期 STB 會非常審慎且嚴謹的審查流程。他們會把這件事做得很好。而我們也會持續關注進展;我昨天聽 Jim 說,下週將提交下一階段的資料。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

    Fadi Chamoun,BMO 資本市場。

  • Fadi Chamoun - Equity Analyst

    Fadi Chamoun - Equity Analyst

  • Yes, on I want to circle back first just a follow-up on some of these questions on the MOUs. Can you talk about how many to the ones we do to customers, you're going to be having access to, provided this whole MOU kind of go through.

    是的,我想先回到先前關於這些 MOU 問題的一個追問。你能談談我們與客戶簽的那些 MOU 裡,有多少項在整個 MOU 流程若順利推進後,你們將能取得(相關)接觸/使用權嗎?

  • And on the first agreement in terms of getting that overhead rights to Eagle Pass. Is this for Canadian originated carload only it just feels like some of the press releases were we're focused on this being kind of covering only Canadian originated carload. I just want to clarify that.

    另外,關於第一份協議,也就是取得通往 Eagle Pass 的通行權。這是否僅限於加拿大起運的整車(carload)貨量?因為我感覺有些新聞稿似乎聚焦在這只涵蓋加拿大起運的整車貨量。我想釐清一下。

  • And my main question is maybe to Pat. How are you thinking about the network capacity as we start looking into 2027? I think you guys did a good job this year in improving cash flow conversion, I just want to understand whether we have a CapEx need as we go into 2027. How do you think about the bottlenecks of the capacity to handle the volume as we go into next year?

    而我主要的問題可能是問 Pat。當我們開始展望 2027 年時,你們如何看待網路運能?我認為你們今年在改善現金流轉換方面做得很好,我想了解當我們進入 2027 年時,是否會有資本支出(CapEx)的需求。當我們進入明年、要承接這些貨量時,你們如何看待運能瓶頸?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me start with that, Fadi. And I'll turn it over to Pat first on the capacity piece, but let me tell you what I've been impressed about what we've been able to do. We went through an investment cycle, as you know, where we got our locomotive fleet and our fleets in the right place, and we lifted our capacity in the [Edson] sub by 25%.

    Fadi,我先從這題開始。我會先把運能的部分交給 Pat,但先說說我對我們能做到的事情印象很深。如你所知,我們經歷了一個投資週期,把我們的機車車隊與各類車隊配置到位,並且把 [Edson] 分區的運能提升了 25%。

  • And so we were prepared for all the volume, whether it was the grain or the energy products that have been strong in the second quarter. But what has impressed me so much is that we moved that grain largely without incremental fleet.

    因此我們已為所有貨量做好準備,不論是穀物,或是第二季表現強勁的能源產品。但讓我印象最深的是,我們在運送這些穀物時,基本上沒有增加額外車隊。

  • So we improved our cycle times on green by 15%. So these guys are not be idle there pushing from an asset perspective. And from a people perspective, we're pushing pretty hard on what we get for every inch of asset base. I would expect he's going to tell you that we've got the capacity to do a whole lot more.

    所以我們把穀物的週轉時間改善了 15%。所以從資產角度來看,這些人不是在那裡閒置,我們在推動資產效率。而從人力角度來看,我們也非常努力地榨出每一寸資產基礎的效益。我預期他會告訴你,我們還有能力做更多。

  • But Pat, over to you, and I'll answer his other questions.

    但 Pat,交給你,我也會回答他其他問題。

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay. Thanks, Tracy. Yes, I would say that from a network capacity perspective, I feel really good about where we are. I would say if you look back to the presentation and to my comments, what we demonstrated in the West is with volumes surging the capacity that we spent over the last three investment cycles, as Tracy pointed out, we demonstrated that we can take on that volume. And in fact, we got faster. We got more fluid capacity.

    好的。謝謝,Tracy。是的,我會說就網路運能而言,我對我們目前的狀況感覺非常好。如果你回頭看簡報以及我剛才的評論,我們在西部展示的是:在貨量激增時,正如 Tracy 指出的,我們在過去三個投資週期所投入的運能,證明我們可以承接那樣的貨量。而且事實上,我們變得更快。我們的流動性更好、運能更順暢。

  • We said it before, we have additional capacity available both in the East and in the South, and we continue to work towards growing into those. We think that this expansion of this agreement with Union Pacific will help us fill up some of that capacity in the South, while protecting our capacity and any additional capacity for UP would be funded by UP.

    我們之前也說過,東部與南部都有額外可用的運能,我們也持續努力把成長導入那些區域。我們認為,與 Union Pacific 擴大這項協議,將有助於填補我們南部的一部分運能;同時也能保護我們的運能,而 UP 若需要任何額外運能,將由 UP 出資。

  • I will say to the question of investments, we will continue to spend on basic capital to keep the railroad safe and fluid and call out the two projects we continue to point to as far as larger capital projects, which is in Northern and Southern BC, both an art Bridge outside of Rupert and outside of the Vancouver terminal, the Glen Valley and Abrahamson, double-track project. Those are the big call-outs on growth capacity.

    至於投資的問題,我要說我們會持續投入基本資本支出,以維持鐵路的安全與順暢;並點出我們一直提到的兩個較大型資本專案,分別位於卑詩省北部與南部:一個是在 Rupert 附近、以及在溫哥華碼頭附近的橋梁工程;另一個是 Glen Valley 與 Abrahamson 的雙線化(double-track)專案。這些是提升成長運能的主要重點。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • As to the settlement agreement, Fadi, the two to ones, I think that we've identified five, UP has as well. There will be some more 322 out there, and we'll see how that evolves. But what this essentially does is it says that where we can -- we have operationally, we can get close to it. And commercially, we're a feasible kind of solution to that is that we would be the partner of choice for those. So that's how that piece works.

    至於和解協議,Fadi,所謂的 two-to-ones,我認為我們已辨識出五個,UP 也同樣辨識出來。外面可能還會有更多 322,我們會看它如何演變。但這基本上是在說:在我們能夠——從營運面我們可以接近(達成)的地方,而從商業面我們是一個可行的解決方案時,我們將會是那些案子的首選合作夥伴。這部分就是這樣運作的。

  • On Eagle Pass on the kind of Memphis Eagle Pass road -- yes, this is for traffic that can move the market between Canada and Mexico, southbound and northbound. It's a considerable marketplace. We've sized it out over time with Fernando and his team at -- this gives us direct access to get added over Memphis, which we can be very fast. We're really excited about that.

    至於 Eagle Pass、也就是所謂 Memphis–Eagle Pass 這條路徑——是的,這適用於能在加拿大與墨西哥之間移動的貨流,包含南下與北上。這是一個相當可觀的市場。我們過去一段時間已和 Fernando 及其團隊一起做過規模評估——這讓我們能透過 Memphis 取得直接進入(Eagle Pass)的通道,而且我們可以做得非常快。我們對此非常興奮。

  • Also on the EJ&E deal with the Union Pacific, that applies only to US business origins and destinations as well. I hope that, that is helpful.

    另外,關於與 Union Pacific 的 EJ&E 交易,那也僅適用於美國境內的起運與目的地業務。希望這些說明有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

    Brandon Oglenski,Barclays。

  • Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

    Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

  • Tracy, I guess, you did address that you think this resolves the competitive issues you had with the deal specifically within your network. But more broadly, how do you think if this deal goes through, it's going to impact broader industry competition, especially longer term?

    Tracy,我想你確實提到你認為這能解決你們在交易上、特別是在你們網路內所面臨的競爭問題。但更廣泛來看,如果這筆交易通過,你認為它會如何影響整個產業的競爭態勢,尤其是長期而言?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Brandon. Listen, I think we've all been -- we've all had a question about that. And at CN, as we've talked about this, we've said we're not opposed to mergers. We are very favorable on competition. So the big question on this on a broader basis on the merger is what it does to competition.

    謝謝,Brandon。聽著,我想我們大家——我們都對此有疑問。在 CN,當我們討論這件事時,我們說過我們不反對併購。我們非常支持競爭。所以就這個併購案更廣泛的層面來說,最大的問題是它對競爭會造成什麼影響。

  • We can't speak to the broader deal, but we've spoken to what is the impact from our network perspective. But we'll see, we're going to launch into a process that will -- we've already launched into a process that's going to be very thoughtful.

    我們無法評論更廣泛的交易,但我們已說明從我們網路角度的影響。不過我們會看後續發展;我們將進入一個——其實我們已經啟動了一個——會非常審慎的流程。

  • And I know, knowing Patrick ops and the Board of the FCB will be very thorough to ask and answer all of the very important questions to this merger. So that's all ahead of us. And what happens beyond that, I think we'll wait to see first before we comment on what happens on this part of it.

    而且我知道,了解 Patrick 的營運團隊以及 FCB 董事會,他們會非常徹底地提出並回答這次併購案所有非常重要的問題。所以這些都還在前面。至於之後會發生什麼,我想我們會先觀察再評論這部分會如何發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

    Chris Wetherbee,Wells Fargo。

  • Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

    Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

  • I guess maybe I wanted to ask a little bit on the guidance. We talked a lot about the merger. So kind of curious about the guidance. I think previously, sort of flattish RTMs and EPS growth a little bit above that. or kind of the spread between RTN and EPS and the guide is a little wider.

    我想我可能想問一下關於指引(guidance)。我們談了很多關於併購。所以我對指引有點好奇。我記得先前大概是 RTMs 持平、EPS 成長略高於此;或者說 RTM 與 EPS 之間的差距,而現在指引中的差距似乎更大一些。

  • So I was hoping you could kind of expand a bit on that. Obviously, just land, I think you talked about fuel potentially being a good guide for you from an earnings perspective, at least in the third quarter. But how do you think about sort of the operating leverage of the business now. As we see RTMs kind of go through the rest of the year, can we assume that, that sort of decent spread of operating leverage and performance to the bottom line can continue? Just want to get a rough sense of what's changed from the earlier outlook relative to where we are now?

    所以我希望你能就此多談一點。顯然,另外我想你提到燃油可能會在獲利面成為你們的有利因素,至少在第三季。但你如何看待目前業務的營運槓桿?當我們看到 RTMs 在今年剩餘時間的走勢時,我們是否可以假設這種不錯的營運槓桿、以及對淨利端的表現差距可以持續?我只是想大致了解,相較於先前展望,現在的看法有哪些改變?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We've had a really strong first half. I'm really proud of what the team has done on it. The operation has been very strong fluid. You've heard Pat talk about the productivity that we've been able to drive. Janet has done a great job of being able to use that service to convert a whole bunch of opportunities not only to take advantage of what's there, but to increase our share of market and to be nimble with our customers, and you've heard us talk about our boots on the ground program. So we're out there with some intensity.

    我們上半年表現非常強勁。我對團隊所做的一切感到非常自豪。營運一直非常強健且順暢。你也聽到 Pat 談到我們能推動的生產力提升。Janet 也做得非常好,能運用這樣的服務水準把大量機會轉化,不僅把握既有需求,也提升我們的市占,並且能靈活地與客戶合作;你也聽我們談到「boots on the ground」計畫。所以我們在市場端投入了相當的強度。

  • So all of that, which we are in control of it's gone very well. I would say overall, volumes are much stronger than we anticipated at the beginning of the year that they will be this year. I'm not expecting that will change as we go, you're seeing our volumes in the second quarter. We do have a pretty tough comp on Q4. Last year in Q4, we hit a record in grain and operationally, we exceeded all of our own expectations. And so we'll have a tougher comp in Q4 as we look forward.

    因此,所有這些我們能掌控的部分都進展得非常順利。我會說整體而言,運量比我們在年初預期今年會達到的水準強勁得多。我不預期這會在接下來有所改變,你們也看到了我們第二季的運量。我們在第四季確實會面臨相當艱難的比較基期。去年第四季,我們在穀物方面創下紀錄,營運上也超越了我們自身所有的預期。因此,展望未來,我們在第四季的比較基期會更具挑戰。

  • I think the question marks as we look at the remainder of the year are more around those things that are moving around outside of it. It's more around kind of more fuel will go, the impact of that. maybe a little bit of currency. We have a little bit of tariff action that's moving around.

    我認為,當我們看今年剩餘時間時,較多的不確定性是在那些我們無法掌控、在外部變動的因素上。主要是燃油走勢及其影響,可能還有一些匯率因素。我們也有一些關稅動作在變動。

  • So we'll see where all that goes. But we think that we want to be disciplined as we think about guidance, and we're comfortable with where we put the peg at this point.

    所以我們會看看這些因素最後會如何發展。但我們認為在思考財測指引時要保持紀律,而就目前我們所設定的水準而言,我們感到安心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

    Ravi Shanker,摩根士丹利。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow up on your previous response. I think you've said in the past that you haven't had the confidence even with a lot of promise on the volume side. It seems like that confidence is building. Can you share your conversations with your customers, particularly around -- again, we've had some kind of catalyst on USMCA pass. It looks like we know what the next generation of tariffs look like.

    我想就你剛才的回覆追問一下。我記得你們過去曾說,即使運量端看起來很有希望,你們仍缺乏信心。但現在看起來那份信心正在建立。你能分享一下你們與客戶的對話嗎,特別是關於——再次提到,我們在 USMCA 通過上似乎有一些催化因素。看起來我們也大致知道下一代關稅會是什麼樣子。

  • Do you feel like there was any pull forward into the first half of the year? Do you feel like there's any pent-up demand past these catalysts -- or kind of what are your customers telling you about their inventory resulting plans?

    你覺得上半年是否有任何需求提前拉貨(pull forward)?在這些催化因素之後,你覺得是否存在任何被壓抑的需求(pent-up demand)——或者說,你們的客戶對其庫存與後續規劃是怎麼說的?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll start with that, but then I'm going to turn it over to Janet to talk more specifically. We've watched this tariff the global, the trade, the tariff, all the impacts from some of the geopolitical events and the impact that has either on the volume that we move or the corridors that we move it in.

    我先回答這部分,然後我會把問題交給 Janet,請她更具體地說明。我們一直在觀察全球貿易、關稅,以及一些地緣政治事件所帶來的各種影響,這些影響要嘛反映在我們運送的運量上,要嘛反映在我們運送的走廊路徑上。

  • And I'm really proud of the work that Janet and her team has done to be out there with customers and respond. You heard us say that our metals business, for example, despite the difficulties in the metals marketplace. Our metals business has -- we've been able to mitigate most of that impact.

    我也非常以 Janet 和她的團隊為傲,他們一直在前線與客戶接觸並做出回應。你們也聽到我們提到,例如我們的金屬業務,儘管金屬市場環境艱難。我們的金屬業務——我們已經能夠緩解其中大部分的影響。

  • Forest products is still feeling if they could use housing starts to lift. As we look at tariffs, from where we are now, certainly, we're all reading in the newspaper around what's happening on that front. We remain hopeful that we will come to a productive constructive positive agreement for all three countries. And what we've embedded in our guidance as we look forward is a tariff level that looks a lot like what it is right now, Janet?

    林產品仍然感受到壓力,如果住宅開工能回升就會有幫助。至於關稅,從我們目前所處的位置來看,當然大家都在報紙上讀到這方面正在發生的事。我們仍然希望三個國家能達成一個具生產力、建設性且正面的協議。而我們在前瞻指引中所納入的假設,是一個看起來很像目前水準的關稅水準,對吧,Janet?

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I would say, Ravi, we might have had a little bit of pull forward. I think I referenced that on lumber. That probably has more to do with just kind of fuel surcharges and building up some inventories. We saw in the US, some more significant pull forward in the context of intermodal that wanted to come into the United States ahead of this tariff regime change over, I'll call it.

    是的。我會說,Ravi,我們可能有一點點提前拉貨。我想我在木材(lumber)上提過這點。那可能更多是因為燃油附加費,以及建立一些庫存。我們在美國看到,在聯運(intermodal)的脈絡下,有較明顯的提前拉貨,想在我稱之為這次關稅制度切換之前把貨運進美國。

  • That was certainly less impactful from a CN perspective. So broadly speaking, no, I don't think we've had a whole lot of pull forward. And I think to Tracy's point, our customers have become very adept at managing the situation, and we've been there to support them along the way as they've changed some of their supply chains. Thanks for the question.

    從 CN 的角度來看,那個影響明顯較小。所以整體而言,不,我不認為我們有出現大量的提前拉貨。而且如 Tracy 所說,我們的客戶已經非常擅長管理這種情況;在他們調整部分供應鏈的過程中,我們也一路提供支援。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

    Konark Gupta,加拿大豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。

  • Konark Gupta - Analyst

    Konark Gupta - Analyst

  • Tracy, I understand you people will be responsible for any investments needed at the J to support their volume growth if needed. But as you firm move the MOU with them, how are you tackling the risk mitigation around potential congestion issues that may arise in and around Chicago, if UPN are driving a lot of volumes through the J?

    Tracy,我理解如果需要的話,你們將負責在 J 上為支援其運量成長所需的任何投資。但隨著你們與他們的 MOU 逐步落實,你們如何因應並降低潛在的壅塞風險——尤其是在芝加哥周邊,如果 UPN 透過 J 推動大量運量的話?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Listen, we spend a lot of time, and Pat has spent some time with Eric on how this whole thing will work, and we remain in control of the J. we've got surplus capacity right now on various parts, different on different parts of the J. So we'll control how that volume comes on. And our agreement says that if we see any strain, so they will not get in the way of our traffic. If there is any constraint or any strain on volume and the capacity needs to be expanded, that we will trigger that, and they will fund the expansion.

    聽著,我們花了很多時間,Pat 也和 Eric 花了一些時間討論整件事將如何運作,而我們仍然掌控 J。我們目前在 J 的不同區段有剩餘容量,各區段情況不一,所以我們會控制那些運量如何導入。而我們的協議也寫明,如果我們看到任何壓力——也就是他們不會妨礙我們的運輸流量。

  • Of course, we may do the expansion, they will fund the expansion. -- and we're locked on that approach.

    當然,我們可能會負責執行擴建,但他們會出資——而我們在這個做法上已經鎖定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Vernon, Bernstein. David? Your line is now open. Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    David Vernon,Bernstein。David?你的線路現在已開通。Scott Group,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • So just two quick things. One, as the STB process plays out going forward, just Practically speaking, does this just mean that you don't participate like no more filings if there's hearings you don't participate? Is that like how we should think about your role going forward here?

    我有兩個很快的問題。第一,隨著 STB 的程序接下來持續推進,從實務角度來看,這是否意味著你們不再參與——例如不再提交文件、如果有聽證也不參與?我們是否應該用這樣的方式來理解你們接下來在這件事上的角色?

  • And then just laying on the fuel side, like clearly going to help this year now. Like anything you can do to like protect yourself on the way down for fuel. I know a few years ago, it was an issue. Is this just naturally how it's going to work? Or is there anything that can be done to protect yourself?

    第二個是燃油方面:很明顯今年現在會有幫助。那在燃油下行時,你們有什麼方式可以保護自己嗎?我知道幾年前這曾是個問題。這只是自然會這樣運作嗎?還是有任何事情可以做來保護自己?

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Scott, I'll start on the first one. So we've agreed not to oppose. So yes, we won't have a large voice in the merger consideration as we go forward. However, if there are questions, we'll obviously be involved in anything related to the agreement that we have, either explaining or defending or whatever the action may be. But yes, largely, that our considerations, our worries have been taken care of. So you won't hear speak a voice.

    Scott,我先回答第一個。我們已同意不反對。所以是的,接下來在併購審議中,我們不會有很大的發言權。不過,如果有任何問題,我們當然會參與所有與我們協議相關的事項,不論是說明、辯護或任何可能的行動。但總的來說,我們的考量與擔憂已經被處理好了。所以你不會聽到我們再發聲。

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Scott, on the fuel side, as you know, fuel surcharge is a hedge. It's working well, but because there's a lag because there's a two-month lag, then on the short-term basis, it does create noise and -- and as you know, and you've been around this business for quite a while, I've been around that business for quite a while as well. There's a lot of movements and volatility around fuel prices, especially with what's happening in the Middle East.

    是的。Scott,燃油方面,如你所知,燃油附加費是一種避險工具。它運作得很好,但因為存在滯後——有兩個月的滯後——所以在短期內確實會造成一些雜訊;而且如你所知,你在這個產業也很久了,我也在這個產業很久了。燃油價格的波動與變動很大,尤其是中東正在發生的事情。

  • So it does create more noise. But I mean, it's just what it is and you know the formula, and we just slip with it. We try to provide visibility on it every quarter and what's coming up. We'll see what it does. Now it looks like it's positive for the second half of the year, but that could turn very quickly.

    所以它確實會帶來更多雜訊。但我的意思是,事情就是如此;你也知道公式,我們就照著它走。我們會嘗試每一季提供相關的能見度,以及接下來可能的走勢。我們會看看它會怎麼發展。目前看起來對下半年是正面的,但情況也可能很快反轉。

  • So we'll see. But there's nothing much we can do on the downside. But as I said, it's a hedge and it's working quite well. to hedge ourselves against ups and downs of fuel prices.

    所以我們再看看。但在下行方面,我們能做的不多。不過如我所說,這是一種避險,而且運作得相當好,用來對沖燃油價格上下波動對我們的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Vernon, Bernstein.

    David Vernon,Bernstein。

  • David Vernon - Analyst

    David Vernon - Analyst

  • Thanks for coming back to me. So coming back to the MOU for a second. I want to talk a little bit about magnitude. As you think about the agreement on the E and then the access down to Eagle Pass, the amount of capacity that you have on haulage from the border is going to matter. And obviously, how many trains can be run through there.

    感謝你回覆我。那我們再回到這份MOU談一下。我想稍微談談規模。當你們思考在E線的協議,以及通往Eagle Pass的通行權時,從邊境開始的牽引(haulage)運能規模會很重要。而且顯然,能有多少列車可以在那裡通行。

  • Is there any way you can kind of quantify commercially, Janet, like is this going to start to impact numbers next year? Is it going to be noticeable. And then as you think about implementing the second part of the agreement, the contingent trackage rights to Kansas City. Is there additional investments you're going to need to make to operationalize that? I think when you guys were going after KCS as a business a long time ago, there was some discussion around of investment in extending your line capacity there.

    Janet,有沒有辦法從商業角度稍微量化一下:這是否會在明年開始影響數字?會不會很明顯?另外,當你們考慮落實協議的第二部分,也就是通往堪薩斯城的或有(contingent)路權(trackage rights)時,你們是否需要額外投資來讓它能夠運作?我記得你們很久以前在追求KCS這門生意時,曾討論過要投資擴增那邊的線路容量。

  • I'm just wondering if there's additional capital or operating resources you're going to need to put into operationalizing that Kansas City Link.

    我只是想知道,為了讓這條堪薩斯城連結(Kansas City Link)能夠運作,你們是否需要額外的資本或營運資源投入。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So let's -- hey, David, I'm glad you're back. Let me start on that. So as we think about it as we've long looked at our network -- like we really like the positioning of our network with where we sit across the natural resource base in North America, our access to ports, our ability to get down into the Gulf Coast. What we've always aspired is how do we extend our network, and these agreements do it in a meaningful way in getting it into Mexico and ultimately contingent on the merger into Kansas City.

    那我們——嘿,David,很高興你回來。我先從這點開始。我們長期以來看待我們的網路——我們非常喜歡我們網路的定位:我們橫跨北美的天然資源帶、能夠進出港口、也能一路延伸到墨西哥灣沿岸。我們一直以來的目標是:如何延伸我們的網路,而這些協議以很有意義的方式做到這點,把網路延伸到墨西哥,並且最終在合併案獲准的前提下延伸到堪薩斯城。

  • And so as we've talked with Jim and the Union Pacific about how this would work, we start in the case of Mexico at a haulage arrangement. But as volumes grow, we can trigger trackage rights. And there's not a lot of concerns along that route right now on when we hit any capacity. But if we do hit capacity constraints and similar to the reverse on the J we would be funding whatever expansion would be cured, then we don't anticipate that, that's likely in the near term, and we have largely the capacity we need to make that work right now. So you're going to see haulage start very quickly.

    因此,當我們與Jim以及Union Pacific討論這將如何運作時,在墨西哥的案例中,我們會先從牽引(haulage)安排開始。但隨著運量成長,我們可以觸發路權(trackage rights)。而就目前來看,那條路線在我們碰到任何容量瓶頸之前,並沒有太多疑慮。但如果我們真的遇到容量限制,且類似於J線反向的情況,我們將會出資進行必要的擴建以解除瓶頸;不過我們不預期短期內會發生,而且我們目前基本上已具備讓它運作所需的容量。所以你們會很快看到牽引(haulage)開始。

  • On the Kansas, I'll talk about the Kansas City side, and then, Janet, I'll turn it over to you, and Pat, any comments you want to add to it.

    至於堪薩斯那邊,我先談堪薩斯城的部分,然後,Janet,我再交給你;Pat,如果你有任何想補充的也請加入。

  • On the Kansas City side, should the merger be approved. We come on to the line of Tuscola, but I'll let Pat comment. We do need to build a bit of a connection there that would be funded by us. On the lending side, we have an agreement with Union Pacific to utilize their net yard in Kansas City. So we've got a landing spot all of the commodities that we would move through that quarter.

    在堪薩斯城這邊,若合併案獲准,我們會在Tuscola接上那條線,但我讓Pat來說明。我們確實需要在那裡建一小段連接線,費用由我們負擔。在落地(landing)方面,我們與Union Pacific有協議,可使用他們在堪薩斯城的Neff Yard。因此,對於我們會透過該走廊運輸的所有貨種,我們都有一個落地點。

  • Do you want to talk about the connection to this goal and then Janet will go to you.

    你要談談連接到Tuscola的部分嗎?然後Janet我再交給你。

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I do. Thank you. And I would say, think about these differently. So different than the KCS application, some of the wording there, that was capacity that would need to be built to access Springfield, Illinois, where we have existing trackage rights with Union Pacific. That is not our core main line.

    我想談。謝謝。我會說,要用不同角度看待這些。不同於KCS申請案中某些措辭,那裡提到的是為了進入伊利諾州Springfield而需要建設的容量;我們在那裡已經與Union Pacific有既有的路權(trackage rights)。那不是我們的核心主幹線。

  • Tuscola is off of our core main line between Chicago and Memphis. It is our fastest route to get south and this will be a new connecting track, just a connecting track to connect to Union Pacific where there's a diamond in Tuscola, and we'll access St. Louis and eventually Kansas City via that connection. So very different than what we put in the application and you saw needed to be invested to get to Springfield. This will be one connection track and then the Neff Yard discussions that will be ongoing.

    Tuscola位於我們芝加哥到孟菲斯之間的核心主幹線之外。它是我們往南最快的路徑,而這將是一段新的連接線——只是一段連接線,用來在Tuscola的菱形交叉(diamond)處連接到Union Pacific;我們將透過這段連接進入聖路易斯,並最終前往堪薩斯城。所以這與我們在申請案中提出、以及你們看到為了到達Springfield所需投資的內容非常不同。這只會是一段連接線,然後Neff Yard的討論也會持續進行。

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. From a revenue perspective, let me just give you a sense of sequencing when we're the current movements that we have today from Canada into Mexico, the immediate benefit to us is going to be the extended length of haul as we move the interchange cells into Memphis.

    是的。謝謝你的問題。從營收角度來看,我先讓你了解一下時程順序:就我們目前從加拿大進入墨西哥的既有運輸而言,對我們的立即好處將是運距延長(extended length of haul),因為我們會把交接點(interchange)移到孟菲斯。

  • So that happens as soon as we kind of get the definitive agreement in place and we'll see some of that flowing in this year. And then the team is very, very focused on the addressable market and what we can do to provide a great service to the customers that want to move their goods between Mexico and Canada. So more to come on that. Thanks for the question.

    因此,一旦我們把最終協議(definitive agreement)敲定,我們就會開始發生這件事,而且今年就會看到部分流量開始導入。同時,團隊也非常、非常專注於可觸及市場(addressable market),以及我們能做些什麼來為希望在墨西哥與加拿大之間運輸貨物的客戶提供優質服務。後續還會有更多資訊。謝謝你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

    Brian Ossenbeck,JPMorgan。

  • Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

    Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

  • One first quick follow-up just to make sure I heard correctly, but if there's any other decisions or concessions that are done through the merger review process, the agreements here seems like they don't exclude you from participating in those. So just that's the first clarification.

    第一個快速追問,只是確認我是否聽對:如果在合併審查流程中還有任何其他決定或讓步,這些協議看起來並不會排除你們參與其中。所以這是第一個釐清。

  • And then for Janet, maybe you can go into more details on some of the marketing, it sounds like you're doing in Vancouver, maybe the relative scope and size, assuming that's international intermodal, but I would like to hear a little bit more about that.

    另外給Janet,也許你可以更詳細談談你們在溫哥華似乎正在做的一些行銷;我想了解相對的範圍與規模。假設那是國際聯運(international intermodal),但我希望多聽一些細節。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Brian, I'll start. So our agreement with Union Pacific is that we will not opposed. If there are interventions that we need to make in response to questions from the STB or to support the agreement that we have, with the Union Pacific then we will participate in that. I hope that answers that portion of your question. Janet?

    Brian,我先回答。我們與Union Pacific的協議是:我們不會反對。如果我們需要針對STB的提問作出回應,或為了支持我們與Union Pacific之間的協議而進行任何介入(interventions),那我們會參與其中。希望這能回答你問題的那一部分。Janet?

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So Brian, our approach to pricing has been very, very consistent. Baseline is we want to price ahead of rail cost inflation. We also want to price to the value of our service. And as you know well, our corridor between Vancouver and all the way into Chicago, Montreal, Toronto has a lot of traffic, and it's an important piece of our network.

    是的。Brian,我們的定價方法一直非常、非常一致。基本原則是:我們希望定價能跑贏鐵路成本通膨。我們也希望依據我們服務的價值來定價。而如你所知,我們從溫哥華一路到芝加哥、蒙特婁、多倫多的走廊有大量運量,這也是我們網路中很重要的一部分。

  • So yes, the piece of business we do marketed is in the overseas intermodal, and I think enough said on that one. Thanks for the question.

    所以是的,我們所行銷的那部分業務是在海外聯運(overseas intermodal),我想這點說到這裡就夠了。謝謝你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Benoit Poirier, Desjardins.

    Benoit Poirier,Desjardins。

  • Benoit Poirier - Analyst

    Benoit Poirier - Analyst

  • Yes. (spoken in foreign language) Congratulations for the results. Could you thought maybe about the opportunities to convert trucks on the rails, given the high spot rates we see these days and kind of what you see in terms of discussion with some customers -- and what could evolve in terms of intermodal opportunities?

    是的。(以外語發言) 恭喜這次的業績。你們是否有思考把卡車貨量轉到鐵路上的機會?考量到我們最近看到的即期運價(spot rates)很高,以及你們與一些客戶的討論情況——還有在聯運機會方面可能會如何演變?

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • So we are seeing, Benoit, some truck to rail conversion. When we look at our own domestic intermodal franchise though for CN, it is more skewed to Canada. And our average length of haul was in the 1,700 to 1,800 mile range. So we have a pretty high market share already, I would say, of the long-haul trucking business in Canada.

    Benoit,我們確實看到一些從卡車轉到鐵路的轉換。不過,當我們看CN自身的國內聯運業務時,它更偏向加拿大市場。而我們的平均運距大約在1,700到1,800英里。所以我會說,我們在加拿大的長途卡車運輸市場,已經有相當高的市占率。

  • So I think -- the short answer is, yes, there's some opportunities, probably not as much as what we're seeing in the US truck capacity there is tightening more significantly than what we're seeing in Canada. But we're encouraged by what's happening so far. And of course, any tightening of capacity is also supported from a rate perspective. Thanks for your questions.

    所以我想——簡短回答是:是的,有一些機會,但可能不像我們在美國看到的那麼多,因為美國的卡車運能收緊得更明顯,相較之下加拿大沒有那麼嚴重。但我們對目前的進展感到鼓舞。當然,任何運能收緊也會在運價面提供支撐。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

    Tom Wadewitz,瑞銀。

  • Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

  • I know you've gotten a lot on the UP agreements, but I want to ask you kind of two elements on that. And congratulations on the agreement. It seemed like a really nice strategic move. So -- the -- let's see, on the Kansas City element, I guess, is there a way? Because I think UP has implied 21.3% to 2% is something a little less than 40 shippers. Can you give us a little more color? Are there some large shippers there? Or is it kind of relatively small carload shippers just a little more perspective so we can kind of maybe think about sizing it.

    我知道你們已經談了很多關於 UP 協議的內容,但我想就其中兩個面向請教一下。也恭喜你們達成協議。看起來是一個非常好的策略性舉措。所以——那個——讓我想想,關於堪薩斯城這一塊,我想問的是,有沒有辦法?因為我認為 UP 暗示 21.3% 到 2% 這部分大概是不到 40 個託運人。你們能否提供更多細節?那裡是否有一些大型託運人?或者主要是相對較小的零散車皮託運人?希望能多給一點脈絡,讓我們可以大概思考一下規模。

  • And then on the Canada to Mexico, is there any other information to contemplate the type of commodities you think would be opportunity is a lot of it auto and Intermodal is a lot of it bulk? Or just how you think about that market and where you would see the growth on that Canada to Mexico.

    另外,關於加拿大到墨西哥,是否還有其他資訊可用來思考你們認為有哪些商品類別會是機會?很大一部分是汽車與聯運嗎?還是很大一部分是散裝?或者你們如何看待那個市場,以及你們認為加拿大到墨西哥這條線的成長會出現在哪些地方。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Tom, thanks for the question. On the two to ones, I think we're all aligned with, there's probably about five of those. Some of those are very meaningful accounts. some are smaller. Harder to say on the three to twos, that will be a broader group, and I'm sure some of that will be contested.

    Tom,謝謝你的提問。關於「二對一」的部分,我想我們的看法一致,大概有五個左右。其中有些是非常重要的客戶,有些則較小。至於「三對二」就比較難說,會是一個更大的群體,我也確定其中一部分會有競爭。

  • So we'll see how that plays out as we go forward. We've quantified it, and we don't think it's the biggest piece of this merger based on our broad estimates by any stretch, the bigger than most impactful parts of this, of course, are the extension of our network into Kansas City with the settlement agreement. We're really excited about that.

    所以我們會看看接下來進展如何。我們已經量化過了,依我們的整體估算,這並不是這次合併中最大的部分,怎麼看都不是;而最重要、影響最大的部分,當然是透過和解協議把我們的網路延伸到堪薩斯城。我們對此非常興奮。

  • On the Canada and Mexico, let me start on this. This is all commodities, and we've been working -- and it's not just self-bound, it's northbound as well. We've been working for some time on railroad haul on this. The two-railroad call gives us a much better -- a much more direct kind of marketing campaign, and they -- we think a better route tremendous faster. But it's all commodities.

    關於加拿大與墨西哥,我先從這裡開始。這涵蓋所有商品,而且我們一直在推動——不只是南向,北向也是。我們在這方面的鐵路運輸(haul)已經努力了一段時間。兩家鐵路的一次性服務(two-railroad call)讓我們能做更好——更直接的行銷推廣,而且我們認為路線更好、速度也快很多。但這是涵蓋所有商品。

  • We've been working on all commodities. But I'm going to let Janet give you a little -- so Janet, do you want to add a little bit?

    我們一直在推動所有商品。不過我讓 Janet 再補充一點——Janet,你要不要再加幾句?

  • Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I can take it a little further. I think for sure, Tracy's point as well said, it's northbound it's self-bound. -- it's all commodities. When we think about the contour of the different business segments, for sure, Automotive is a heavy hitter.

    好的。我可以再延伸說明一下。我想 Tracy 的重點也說得很清楚,北向、南向——涵蓋所有商品。當我們看不同業務區塊的輪廓時,汽車業務確實是主力。

  • We're already been tackling the intermodal. We continue to believe that there's really good opportunities for truck to rail conversion. Not easy, but we just heard. You just heard me say that truck capacity is tightening in the US, and this is one area where it is quite supportive for us and for that product. ag, energy, petroleum and chemicals of all sorts.

    我們也已經在推動聯運業務。我們仍然相信,從卡車轉到鐵路(truck to rail conversion)有非常好的機會。不容易,但我們剛剛也聽到了。你剛剛也聽我說,美國的卡車運能正在收緊,而這一點對我們以及該產品相當有利。農業、能源、石油以及各類化學品。

  • So it is a broad-based opportunity that we see between Mexico and Canada. Thanks for the question.

    因此,我們看到墨西哥與加拿大之間是一個廣泛的機會。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

    Jonathan Chappell,Evercore ISI。

  • Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

    Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

  • Pat, you gave us an update on the Fast Track work that you've been doing, and you've done with a review of most of the major terminals. You also highlighted $100 million of cost savings that you've identified this year. trying to understand, if that $100 million, have we seen any of that thus far in the first half? Or if this is what you've identified thus far and you start to see that savings really start to shake out in the second half of the year?

    Pat,你向我們更新了你們正在做的 Fast Track 工作,而且你們已經完成對大多數主要場站的檢視。你也提到今年已辨識出 1 億美元的成本節省。想請教的是,這 1 億美元,我們在上半年是否已經看到其中任何部分?或者這是你們目前辨識出的金額,而節省會在下半年才真正開始顯現?

  • And then also, you mentioned still looking at some intermodal terminals and facilities. Is there a chance that, that $100 million becomes something greater as we think about run rate into $27 million?

    另外,你提到仍在檢視一些聯運場站與設施。那麼,當我們思考到 2,700 萬美元的年化水準(run rate)時,這 1 億美元是否有可能變得更高?

  • Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Whitehead - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you for the question. And I'll say this, the $100 million that is the savings we have realized. And let me say it this way, Fast Track is part of how we run this railroad now -- and I would say the work we're moving as we've looked at the major terminals. We've moved on to intermodal terminals, nonrail operations. We have had a thorough review of our retired fleet.

    謝謝你的提問。我會這麼說:這 1 億美元是我們已經實現的節省。我換個方式說,Fast Track 現在已經成為我們經營這條鐵路的方式之一——而且我會說,當我們檢視完主要場站後,我們的工作正在往前推進。我們已經轉向聯運場站、非鐵路營運。我們也對已退役車隊做了徹底檢視。

  • We will continue to double-click into purchased services and I would -- and facilities. We called that out as well. And I will say this is a muscle we will continue to exercise. We feel good about the additional opportunities, and we're going to chase every dollar.

    我們會持續深入檢視外購服務(purchased services),以及——還有設施。我們也特別點出了這一點。我想說的是,這是一項我們會持續鍛鍊的能力。我們對額外的機會感到樂觀,而且我們會追逐每一塊錢的節省。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you all. Listen, we appreciate your time today. Let me just say this as we close. This team has always been excited about our prospects. We love our franchise.

    謝謝各位。各位,感謝你們今天撥冗參與。在結束前我想說幾句。這個團隊一直對我們的前景感到興奮。我們熱愛我們的事業版圖。

  • We've got great access North American markets, great access to global markets. We've got investment in natural resources and whether it be ag, be energy, be mining, that's continuing on. Our customers are investing.

    我們能很好地觸及北美市場,也能很好地觸及全球市場。我們在天然資源方面有投資,不論是農業、能源或採礦,這些都在持續進行。我們的客戶也在投資。

  • There's not often in a railroad career though, that you get to meaningfully expand extended network. And so we're really -- we're even more excited now about the prospects what we can do with this network, how we can bring more to our customers into the industries that we serve.

    不過在鐵路職涯中,並不常有機會能夠實質性地擴大、延伸網路。因此,我們現在對於這個網路能帶來的前景更加興奮:我們能如何為客戶帶來更多價值,並深入我們所服務的各個產業。

  • Thank you for your interest in it, and we'll talk to you soon.

    謝謝你們對此的關注,我們很快再聊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

    各位女士、先生,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與,現在可以掛線。