Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to Jamie Lockwood, CN's Vice President of Investor Relations and Special Projects.

我今天將擔任接線員。(接線員指示) 此刻，我想把電話會議交給 Jamie Lockwood，他是 CN 的投資人關係與特別專案副總裁。

Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Lockwood.

各位女士、先生，Lockwood 先生。

Thank you, Christa. (spoken in foreign laguage) Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for CN's first-quarter financial and operating results conference call. Joining us today on the call are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Pat Whitehead, our Chief Operations Officer; Janet Drysdale, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Christa。(以外語發言) 歡迎各位。感謝各位參加 CN 第一季財務與營運成果電話會議。今天與會的還有：我們的總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson；營運長 Pat Whitehead；商務長 Janet Drysdale；以及財務長 Ghislain Houle。

You can turn to page 2 of the presentation, which includes our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP definitions for your reference. These forward-looking statements reflect our current information and educated assumptions and include estimates, goals and expectations about the future.

請翻到簡報第 2 頁，供各位參考，其中包含我們的前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 定義。這些前瞻性陳述反映我們目前掌握的資訊與經審慎推估的假設，並包含對未來的估計、目標與預期。

These involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ from what we expect. As a reminder, forward-looking statements are not guarantees and factors such as economic conditions, competition, fuel prices and regulatory changes could impact actual outcomes. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

其中涉及風險與不確定性，實際結果可能與我們的預期不同。提醒各位，前瞻性陳述並非保證，經濟狀況、競爭、燃料價格及法規變動等因素都可能影響實際結果。現在我很高興把電話會議交給 CN 總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson。

Thank you, Jamie. (spoken in foreign laguage) Thanks, everyone, for joining our call. I'm pleased to walk you through our first quarter results. This was a solid quarter where we delivered on plan. This is reflective of our continued focus on execution and performance across the entirety of our operations.

謝謝你，Jamie。(以外語發言) 謝謝各位參加我們的電話會議。我很高興帶各位回顧我們第一季的業績。這是一個穩健的季度，我們按計畫交出成果。這反映出我們持續專注於在整個營運範圍內的執行力與績效表現。

We're doing exactly what we said we would do at the outset of the year, and the results can be seen across the business. We're increasing our commercial intensity, and we saw volume growth in the first quarter. We're executing with urgency, and we're not done.

我們正在做的，正是年初所說會做的事，而成果已在各項業務中展現。我們提升商務強度，並在第一季看到運量成長。我們以緊迫感推動執行，而且我們還沒結束。

As we look at the quarter, our performance is best understood through key commitments we laid out around execution, financial discipline and guidance. Now let me walk you through each of those.

回顧本季，我們的表現最適合用我們在執行、財務紀律與指引方面所提出的關鍵承諾來理解。接下來我將逐一說明。

First, on execution, we committed to pulling every lever we have in the areas we control to deliver regardless of the macro backdrop. We have leaned into workforce productivity, asset utilization and operating efficiency, and the railway is running well. All of our key operating metrics improved year-over-year, and this has contributed to a structurally improved cost base.

第一，在執行方面，我們承諾在我們可控的領域動用所有槓桿，不論總體環境如何都要交付成果。我們著力於人力生產力、資產運用率與營運效率，鐵路營運狀況良好。我們所有關鍵營運指標皆較去年同期改善，並促成結構性改善的成本基礎。

At the same time, we continue to intensify our commercial execution in this environment where every carload counts. The team is delivering by staying nimble, empowered and responsive, capitalizing on our strong service.

同時，在每一車皮裝載量都至關重要的環境下，我們持續加強商務執行。團隊保持靈活、充分授權且反應迅速，善用我們強勁的服務表現來交付成果。

Now second, we committed to strengthening free cash flow and returning excess capital to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet. In the quarter, free cash flow increased by about $275 million. We repurchased 6 million shares and increased leverage to 2.7 times. This reflects our confidence in the underlying earnings power of this business. Expect this focus to continue.

第二，我們承諾在維持強健資產負債表的同時，強化自由現金流並將多餘資本回饋股東。本季自由現金流增加約 2.75 億美元。我們回購了 600 萬股，槓桿倍數提高至 2.7 倍。這反映我們對本業務內在獲利能力的信心。預期我們將持續聚焦於此。

And third, we committed to providing directional guidance tied closely to volume trends rather than precise targets. Now we're encouraged by the start of the year, and our view remains that earnings will grow above volumes on an annual basis. It's too early to change our outlook for the year. But if volumes come in stronger, we're confident we will deliver earnings leverage in the business.

第三，我們承諾提供與運量趨勢緊密連結的方向性指引，而非精確目標。我們對今年開局感到鼓舞，並且仍認為按年度計算，盈餘成長將高於運量成長。現在還太早調整我們對今年的展望。但若運量表現更強，我們有信心在業務中實現盈餘槓桿。

Now as we exit the first quarter, the business is positioned for better financial progression, not just as comparability becomes less demanding through the balance of the year, but in anticipation of the operational leverage that will come through as and when the volume environment improves.

隨著我們走出第一季，公司的定位有利於更佳的財務進展；不僅因為在今年剩餘期間的可比基期將不再那麼嚴苛，也因為我們預期當運量環境改善時，營運槓桿將隨之顯現。

So let's turn to the quarter. We are pleased with how we started the year. I am proud of how the team is performing. It speaks to the strength of the network and to the quality of the operating model we've built. We're handling volumes more efficiently with fewer people and locomotives. And that matters because it positions us to convert growth more effectively and improve financial performance as the year unfolds.

接著談本季。我們對今年的開局感到滿意。我為團隊的表現感到自豪。這說明了我們網路的韌性，以及我們所建立的營運模式品質。我們以更少的人力與機車，更有效率地處理運量。這很重要，因為它讓我們能更有效地轉化成長，並在今年推進過程中提升財務表現。

And from a commercial perspective, volume growth was led by grain, potash, natural gas liquids and intermodal. In fact, we set a new first quarter record for grain movements, and we continue to see our service reliability and commercial intensity creating opportunities for us in the marketplace. Janet will walk you through the key revenue puts and takes in a few minutes.

從商務角度來看，運量成長主要由穀物、鉀肥、天然氣液體以及聯運帶動。事實上，我們創下第一季穀物運輸量的新紀錄；我們也持續看到服務可靠性與商務強度為我們在市場上創造機會。Janet 將在幾分鐘後帶各位了解營收增減的關鍵因素。

Our productivity is a key focus for us, and we're hard at work pulling every lever. Our fast-track initiative, which Pat will speak to in a moment, is progressing as expected as this cross-functional review further drives network efficiency.

生產力是我們的重點，我們正全力以赴動用所有槓桿。我們的快速推進計畫（fast-track initiative），Pat 稍後會提到，正如預期般推進；這項跨職能檢視進一步提升了網路效率。

Q1 was set to be the toughest year-over-year comparison of 2026, and the quarter came in largely as we expected. Now the benefits to EPS from our commercial and operational execution were impacted by a few factors that are not reflective of the underlying performance. Ghislain will provide details on those.

第一季原本就是 2026 年最艱難的年對年比較，而本季結果大致符合我們的預期。目前，我們商務與營運執行對 EPS 的貢獻受到幾項因素影響，而這些因素並不反映基本面表現。Ghislain 將提供相關細節。

In addition, Q1 fuel and FX had a combined $0.07 drag on the earnings in the quarter. The engine is running well, and you will increasingly see the benefits drop to the bottom line as the year progresses. The one area in which we're not satisfied in Q1 is safety. We have consistently improved our safety performance over the last number of years. However, in Q1, we fell short of our expectations.

此外，第一季燃料與匯率合計對本季盈餘造成每股 0.07 美元的拖累。引擎運轉良好，隨著年度推進，各位將愈來愈能看到效益反映到最終獲利。第一季我們唯一不滿意的領域是安全。過去數年我們持續改善安全表現。然而在第一季，我們未達到自身的期望。

We remain fully committed to continue improving our safety outcome, and we're already seeing improvements in both accident and injury rates in April. Pat will speak to our safety performance in more detail.

我們仍完全致力於持續改善安全成果，而且我們已在 4 月看到事故率與受傷率都有所改善。Pat 將更詳細說明我們的安全表現。

Now looking forward to the rest of the year, our priorities remain unchanged: disciplined execution, increased commercial intensity and continued focus on cash flow. Longer term, the opportunity in front of CN remains compelling. Our advantaged network, our extensive port access and the natural resource base uniquely positioned on our network provide us with an incredible opportunity to grow beyond what the broader economy alone can deliver.

展望今年剩餘期間，我們的優先事項維持不變：有紀律的執行、提升商務強度，以及持續聚焦現金流。從更長期來看，CN 面前的機會仍相當具吸引力。我們具優勢的網路、廣泛的港口通達性，以及在我們網路上具獨特定位的自然資源基礎，為我們提供了極佳機會，使我們的成長能超越僅由整體經濟所能帶動的水準。

We remain bullish, especially on agriculture and energy with the potential for increased egress opportunities for Canadian energy to be positive for our NGL business and our frac sand franchise. We're seeing green shoots and potential in these sectors.

我們仍然看多，特別是農業與能源；加拿大能源可能增加外運（egress）機會，這對我們的天然氣液體（NGL）業務與壓裂砂（frac sand）業務都有正面助益。我們在這些領域看到初現的復甦跡象與潛力。

Recent announcement around natural gas projects in Western Canada reinforce that view. The investments we've made position us very well to support our customers in both existing and new markets.

近期關於加拿大西部天然氣專案的公告，進一步強化了這個觀點。我們所做的投資，使我們能以非常有利的條件支持客戶在既有與新市場中的需求。

And as we go forward, we'll remain disciplined, but our focus on execution is working. Q1 has delivered to plan through better service, productivity and asset utilization. We're sharper and faster and the organization is well positioned to deliver going forward for our customers, employees and shareholders.

展望未來，我們將保持紀律，但我們對執行的聚焦正在奏效。第一季透過更佳的服務、生產力與資產運用率，按計畫交付成果。我們更精準、更快速，組織也已做好準備，持續為客戶、員工與股東交付成果。

Over to you, Pat.

交給你了，Pat。

Thank you, Tracy. Once again, this team delivered another disciplined quarter in Q1, building on the consistency we've been driving across the network. That consistency matters because it allows us to handle volume efficiently, make better use of our resources and support better financial performance as the year unfolds.

謝謝你，Tracy。再一次，這個團隊在第一季交出另一個紀律嚴明的季度表現，延續我們在整個網路推動的一致性。這種一致性很重要，因為它讓我們能有效率地處理運量、更好地運用資源，並在全年推進過程中支撐更佳的財務表現。

It's another proof point that the model is working and that this network has durable advantages. I feel very good about where we stand operationally and about the progress the team is making, and I want to thank the entire CN team.

這再次證明我們的模式正在奏效，而且這個網路具備持久的優勢。我對我們目前的營運狀況以及團隊所取得的進展感到非常有信心，也要感謝整個 CN 團隊。

Turning to the next slide, let's look at some of the key operating measures. Compared to Q1 2025, we improved network fluidity through solid execution, driving car velocity up 6%, dwell down by 4% and train speed up 6%.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來看看一些關鍵的營運衡量指標。與 2025 年第一季相比，我們透過扎實的執行提升了網路流動性，使車輛周轉速度提升 6%、停留時間下降 4%，列車速度提升 6%。

We maintained good customer service with local service commitment up 1%. We ran longer and heavier trains by 2% and overall, we moved 3% more GTMs. While winter conditions were less severe overall, our performance reflects continuous improvements in the elements under our control, supported by sound decisions and deliberate investments we have made over the last few years.

我們維持良好的客戶服務，本地服務承諾提升 1%。我們讓列車更長、更重，提升 2%，整體而言，我們運送的 GTM 增加 3%。雖然整體冬季狀況較不嚴峻，但我們的表現反映出在可控要素上的持續改善，並受到我們過去幾年所做的健全決策與審慎投資所支持。

Capacity investments have structurally improved the resilience of our network, allowing for faster recovery from cold stretches. At the same time, our unique air car fleet enhances asset utilization by optimizing the size of our trains and redeploying locomotives in the right trains.

產能投資在結構上提升了我們網路的韌性，使我們能在寒冷時段後更快復原。同時，我們獨特的 air car 車隊透過最佳化列車編組規模，並將機車重新配置到合適的列車上，提升資產使用效率。

The key point is the better operating performance and more consistent service are creating opportunities for Janet and her team to go win business. Janet will touch on some in a minute. The operations and commercial teams are tightly aligned. We jointly evaluate incremental opportunities and determine where it makes sense to pursue them.

重點是，更佳的營運表現與更一致的服務，正在為 Janet 與她的團隊創造贏得業務的機會。Janet 稍後會談到其中一些。營運與商務團隊緊密對齊。我們共同評估增量機會，並判斷在哪些情況下值得去爭取。

Looking ahead, we use forecasted volumes to anticipate our needs, including how many people, locomotives and railcars we require. This allows us to plan proactively and ensure everything operates efficiently across the network.

展望未來，我們使用預測運量來預先判斷需求，包括需要多少人力、機車與貨車。這讓我們能主動規劃，並確保整個網路的運作效率。

What this process leads to, and you can see it on the next slide, is improved asset utilization. Looking at it year-over-year, our T&E productivity is up 12% and more importantly, T&E labor costs per GTM is down 7%. Our locomotive productivity is up 8% with locomotive availability remaining at 91%. Locomotive fuel productivity improved 3% with our best ever Q1 on record. These results and the ones of the last few quarters reinforce our ability to grow volumes without a proportional increase in cost, and they are not accidental.

這個流程帶來的結果——你可以在下一張投影片看到——是資產使用效率的提升。以年對年來看，我們的 T&E 生產力提升 12%，更重要的是，每 GTM 的 T&E 人力成本下降 7%。我們的機車生產力提升 8%，機車可用率仍維持在 91%。機車燃油生產力提升 3%，創下我們有紀錄以來最佳的第一季表現。這些結果以及過去幾季的表現，強化了我們在不按比例增加成本的情況下成長運量的能力，而且這並非偶然。

They reflect a predictable approach to operations and disciplined management of our people and assets. And we're still early in the journey with a clear line of sight to further efficiency and value creation. Our cross-functional reviews, fast track are helping us further improve both our operations and resourcing. This is a progression of our scheduled operating model, highly focused on matching demand with our existing assets, running lean and staying nimble.

這反映出我們可預期的營運方法，以及對人力與資產的紀律化管理。而且我們仍處於旅程的早期階段，對進一步提升效率與創造價值有清晰的可見度。我們的跨職能檢討與 fast track 正協助我們進一步改善營運與資源配置。這是我們排程式營運模式的演進，核心聚焦於以既有資產匹配需求、精實運作並保持敏捷。

The resource management metrics we just discussed are early proof points of that work. We are approximately a-third of the way complete of the major terminals on our network and remain on track to complete the work through the summer.

我們剛才討論的資源管理指標，是這項工作的早期佐證。我們已完成網路主要終端站工程約三分之一，並仍按計畫在夏季前完成。

Finally, one area where we were not where we wanted to be in Q1 was safety. Safety performance in Q1 fell short of the high standards we set for ourselves and that demands our full attention. Accidents were up year-over-year. And while this comes in comparison to last year's exceptionally low levels, no incident or accident is acceptable. We take this very seriously and are actively addressing it.

最後，第一季有一個領域未達到我們期望的水準，那就是安全。第一季的安全表現未達我們為自己設定的高標準，這需要我們全力關注。事故年對年增加。雖然這是與去年異常偏低的水準相比，但任何事件或事故都不可接受。我們非常嚴肅看待此事，並正積極處理。

One important finding so far is that there is no single underlying cause driving this increase. Some incidents relate to wheels, some to track conditions and in one instance, a land slide impacted a train. We have taken targeted and concrete actions to ensure that the learnings from each of these incidents are fully understood and translated into safer outcomes in the quarters ahead.

目前一項重要發現是，並沒有單一根本原因導致這次增加。有些事件與車輪有關，有些與軌道狀況有關，另有一次則是山崩影響列車。我們已採取具針對性且具體的行動，確保從每起事件中汲取的經驗教訓被充分理解，並在未來幾季轉化為更安全的結果。

Taken together, this quarter reinforces my confidence that a scheduled operating model, disciplined execution and accountable leadership will continue to deliver strong, reliable, and durable performance.

綜合來看，本季進一步強化了我的信心：排程式營運模式、紀律化執行與可問責的領導，將持續帶來強勁、可靠且具持久性的表現。

With that, Janet, you're up.

接下來，Janet，交給你。

Thanks, Pat, and good morning. Overall, Q1 finished on solid footing. Volumes were slightly ahead of our expectations, supported by strong execution across the network. Revenues were down 1% year-over-year. They were up 2% when adjusted for foreign exchange, and they were up 3% when adjusted for foreign exchange, fuel surcharge and the Canadian carbon tax.

謝謝，Pat，大家早安。整體而言，第一季以穩健的態勢收官。在全網路強力執行的支持下，運量略高於我們的預期。營收年對年下降 1%。若調整匯率因素，營收年對年成長 2%；若再調整匯率、燃油附加費與加拿大碳稅，則年對年成長 3%。

Revenue ton miles increased 3% and carloads increased 2%. Mix was a headwind that offset same-store price. Now on pricing, our strategy remains consistent: price for the value of our service, sell into our capacity and price ahead of our rail cost inflation.

收入噸英里（Revenue ton miles）增加 3%，車皮裝載量（carloads）增加 2%。產品組合（mix）形成逆風，抵銷了同店價格的貢獻。在定價方面，我們的策略仍然一致：依據服務價值定價、在我們的產能範圍內銷售，並讓定價走在鐵路成本通膨之前。

This reflects continued pricing discipline as we grow volume. Now as I've said before, in this environment, every carload counts, and the team is bringing it home. I am extremely pleased and proud of the team's agility and the tight alignment between operations and sales, which enabled us to seize new opportunities. We have converted about $100 million in revenues in Q1 from our boots on the ground pipeline.

這反映出我們在運量成長同時，仍持續維持定價紀律。如我先前所說，在這樣的環境下，每一車皮都很重要，而團隊確實做到了。我對團隊的敏捷度，以及營運與銷售之間的高度對齊感到非常滿意並引以為傲，這讓我們能把握新的機會。第一季我們透過第一線開發管線（boots on the ground pipeline）轉化了約 1 億美元的營收。

Our wins have been across commodity segments, including, for example, plastics, asphalt, fertilizers, aggregates, scrap steel and steel billets. Our service in Q1 also supported incremental volumes of international intermodal and potash as well as record shipments of Western Canadian grain. I'll briefly walk through how the performance showed up across the portfolio.

我們的勝利遍及各商品類別，例如塑膠、瀝青、肥料、骨材、廢鋼與鋼胚。我們第一季的服務也支撐了國際聯運與鉀肥的增量運量，以及西加拿大穀物的創紀錄出貨。我將簡要說明這些表現如何反映在各業務組合中。

We delivered an excellent quarter on grain. Canadian grain benefited from robust demand and strong service, including grain car cycle times that were 15% better than the prior year. We also benefited from the reduction of Chinese tariffs on canola.

我們在穀物業務交出非常出色的一季。加拿大穀物受惠於強勁需求與優異服務，包括穀物車循環時間較前一年改善 15%。我們也受惠於中國降低對芥花籽（canola）的關稅。

In the US, growth was driven by a strong soybean program following the agreement between the U.S. and China. Potash was above our expectations on resilient operational execution and aided by favorable year-over-year comparisons related to last year's terminal outage in Eastern Canada.

在美國，成長主要來自美中達成協議後強勁的大豆專案。鉀肥表現高於我們預期，得益於具韌性的營運執行，並受惠於與去年東加拿大終端停運相關的有利年對年比較基期。

In petroleum products, volumes increased across the portfolio. We delivered a 16% increase in NGL RTMs, driven by weather-related demand for propane, strong exports to Prince Rupert and our ability to capitalize on spot butane shipments. Refined products benefited from increased gas and diesel into the Greater Toronto area, including our first unit train into the Phase 2 expansion of the Toronto fuel terminal.

在石油產品方面，運量在整個組合中均有所增加。我們的 NGL RTMs 成長 16%，主要由天氣帶動的丙烷需求、對魯珀特王子港（Prince Rupert）的強勁出口，以及我們把握丁烷現貨出貨的能力所驅動。成品油受惠於流向大多倫多地區的汽油與柴油增加，其中包括我們首列單元列車運入多倫多燃料終端第二期擴建設施。

Intermodal delivered a solid quarter, driven by the Gemini service at Prince Rupert and service-related gains in domestic. Results were more challenged in metals and minerals as reduced gas drilling in Western Canada impacted frac sand demand.

聯運業務交出穩健的一季，主要由魯珀特王子港的 Gemini 服務，以及國內業務因服務改善帶來的增量所驅動。金屬與礦物的結果較具挑戰，因西加拿大天然氣鑽探減少影響了壓裂砂（frac sand）需求。

Steel and aluminum continued to be affected by tariffs, but we were able to partly offset the impact with new long-haul shipments of steel intra-Canada and new moves of scrap steel. Q1 was the final quarter impacted by last year's closure of an iron ore facility. Forest products continues to face a difficult environment, driven by weak demand for lumber and the ongoing impact of tariffs and duties. Finally, coal volumes declined due to unfavorable market conditions for thermal exports.

鋼鐵與鋁仍持續受到關稅影響，但我們透過加拿大境內新增的長途鋼材運輸，以及新增的廢鋼運輸，部分抵銷了衝擊。第一季是最後一個仍受去年某鐵礦設施關閉影響的季度。林產品仍面臨艱困環境，主要由木材需求疲弱，以及關稅與稅費的持續影響所致。最後，由於動力煤出口市場條件不利，煤炭運量下滑。

Turning to slide 10 and looking ahead to the balance of the year, we remain appropriately cautious. Visibility is still limited this early in the year, and the geopolitical environment remains volatile. By segment, grain remains very constructive. We do expect that our record Q1 performance included some pull forward. We continue to be bullish on energy-related commodities and global energy disruptions are expected to drive sustained long-term demand for Canadian products.

接著看第10頁並展望今年剩餘時間，我們仍保持適度審慎。在年初這麼早的時點，可見度仍然有限，而地緣政治環境依舊動盪。就各業務分部而言，穀物仍呈現非常建設性的態勢。我們確實預期，我們創紀錄的第一季表現包含了一些提前拉貨。我們持續看好能源相關大宗商品，且預期全球能源供應中斷將推動對加拿大產品的長期且持續需求。

CN is extremely well positioned to serve this market. We have several projects and expansions that are scheduled to come online later this year, and we're very excited about our future prospects. Rising thermal coal prices driven by the Middle East conflict could support improved export demand for thermal coal. Year-over-year comps get tougher for international intermodal volumes in the second quarter, but should improve in the second half.

CN 在服務此市場方面具備極佳的有利位置。我們有數個專案與擴建計畫預計在今年稍晚投入營運，我們對未來前景感到非常振奮。由中東衝突推升的動力煤價格上漲，可能支撐動力煤出口需求改善。第二季國際聯運（intermodal）量的年對年比較基期將更具挑戰，但下半年應會改善。

Consumer demand bears close watching, but CN's service reliability remains a key differentiator. In automotive, near-term demand remains pressured, but we are encouraged by recent share gains that position us well for the back half of the year.

消費需求值得密切關注，但 CN 的服務可靠性仍是關鍵差異化優勢。在汽車業務方面，短期需求仍承壓，但我們對近期市占提升感到鼓舞，這使我們在今年下半年具備良好布局。

For metals and minerals, we expect demand to continue to be bumpy. We have strong conviction in our frac sand franchise, and we will benefit from the new unit train receiving terminals that have come online in Northeast BC.

在金屬與礦物方面，我們預期需求將持續呈現顛簸波動。我們對壓裂砂（frac sand）業務版圖深具信心，且將受惠於已在卑詩省東北部（Northeast BC）啟用的新整列列車（unit train）接收終端。

More recently, we are also seeing higher demand for US frac sand shipments. We are expecting increased intra-Canada and intra-US steel moves along with higher shipments of scrap metal. Cross-border shipments of steel remain challenged.

近期我們也看到美國壓裂砂運輸需求更高。我們預期加拿大境內與美國境內的鋼材運輸將增加，同時廢金屬出貨量也會提高。跨境鋼材運輸仍面臨挑戰。

In forest products, it's difficult to foresee improvement in the near term given muted housing activity in addition to the dampening effects of tariffs and duties.

在林產品方面，鑑於住宅市場活動低迷，加上關稅與稅費的抑制效果，短期內很難預見改善。

So let me wrap up. Our strategy is consistent, stay close to our customers, grow volumes that fit our network and maintain our pricing discipline. CN is very well positioned to deliver strong incremental margins when the demand environment improves.

我做個總結。我們的策略一以貫之：貼近客戶、成長符合我們網路特性的運量，並維持定價紀律。當需求環境改善時，CN 具備非常有利的位置以實現強勁的增量利潤率。

Ghislain, over to you.

Ghislain，交給你。

(spoken in foreign language) Starting on slide 12, we began the year on solid footing. We delivered financial performance that was in line with plan through our continued focus on asset and labor productivity. First quarter reported diluted EPS was $1.87, up 1% from last year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $1.80, down 3% from last year or $1.83, 1% lower on an exchange-adjusted basis. These results reflect two notable adjustments: a $66 million pretax gain tied to the sale of our new market subdivision and a $17 million in adviser fees related to industry consolidation.

（以外語發言）從第12頁開始，我們以穩健的態勢展開今年。透過持續聚焦資產與勞動生產力，我們交出符合計畫的財務表現。第一季公告稀釋每股盈餘（EPS）為1.87美元，較去年增加1%；調整後稀釋EPS為1.80美元，較去年下降3%，或在匯率調整基礎下為1.83美元，下降1%。這些結果反映兩項值得注意的調整：與出售我們的新市場支線（new market subdivision）相關的6,600萬美元稅前收益，以及與產業整併相關的1,700萬美元顧問費用。

There are also some year-over-year factors that are not reflective of the underlying performance. That includes a higher effective tax rate this quarter as well as last year's remeasurement of CN's investment in Iowa Northern. These factors negatively impacted year-over-year adjusted EPS by $0.06. And as Tracy mentioned, fuel and FX were an additional $0.07 of drag in the quarter.

此外，還有一些年對年因素並不反映基本面表現。包括本季較高的有效稅率，以及去年對 CN 在 Iowa Northern 投資的重新衡量。這些因素使年對年調整後EPS減少0.06美元。正如 Tracy 提到的，燃油與匯率（FX）在本季也額外造成0.07美元的拖累。

As Tracy said, the story of the quarter is free cash flow. We generated around $900 million in Q1, approximately $275 million or 44% higher than last year. This was mainly driven by lower capital expenditures, the proceeds from the disposal of our new market subdivision and higher net cash from operating activities.

如 Tracy 所說，本季的重點是自由現金流。我們在第一季產生約9億美元的自由現金流，約較去年增加2.75億美元或44%。這主要由較低的資本支出、出售新市場支線的處分收入，以及營運活動帶來較高的淨現金所驅動。

As we outlined in January, we have taken advantage of our strong free cash flow generation to increase returns back to shareholders. Across our current share repurchase program, which runs from February 1, 2026, to January 31, 2027, and the previous NCIB, we repurchased a total of 6 million shares for $870 million in the first three months of the year.

如同我們在1月所說，我們已善用強勁的自由現金流創造能力，提高回饋股東的力度。在我們目前的庫藏股回購計畫（自2026年2月1日至2027年1月31日）以及先前的 NCIB 之下，我們在今年前三個月合計回購600萬股，金額為8.70億美元。

Our leverage ratio increased to around 2.7 times at the end of the first quarter. Given the current macroeconomic environment, we expect the leverage ratio to stay at this level through 2026 before coming back to 2.5 times in 2027.

我們的槓桿比率在第一季末上升至約2.7倍。鑑於目前的總體經濟環境，我們預期槓桿比率將在2026年維持在此水準，並於2027年回落至2.5倍。

Turning to slide 13. Let me walk you through a few key operating expense categories for the quarter on an exchange-adjusted basis. Labor was 1% higher, driven by general wage increases, which were largely offset by 4% lower headcount and strong labor productivity.

接著看第13頁。我將以匯率調整基礎，帶各位快速檢視本季幾個主要營運費用類別。人力成本增加1%，主要由整體薪資調升所帶動，但大致被人數減少4%以及強勁的勞動生產力所抵銷。

Fuel expense was more than $10 million lower than in the same period last year with the positive impact of the removal of the carbon tax in Canada, partly offset by higher fuel prices and record fuel efficiency essentially offsetting the impact of higher volumes.

燃油費用較去年同期減少逾1,000萬美元，受惠於加拿大取消碳稅的正面影響，但部分被較高的燃油價格所抵銷；而創紀錄的燃油效率基本上抵銷了運量增加的影響。

We are monitoring fuel prices very closely. With the sharp increase in oil prices in March, fuel negatively impacted EPS by $0.04 in the quarter and had an 80 basis points unfavorable impact to the operating ratio. Purchased services and material was up 9%, driven by higher snow removal costs as a result of harsh winter storms across much of the network, advisory costs and higher material trucking and transload costs.

我們正非常密切地監控燃油價格。隨著3月油價大幅上升，燃油在本季使EPS減少0.04美元，並對營運比率造成80個基點的不利影響。外購服務與材料成本上升9%，主要由於嚴冬風暴席捲網路多數區域導致除雪成本增加、顧問成本，以及材料卡車運輸與轉運（transload）成本上升。

Other expenses were up approximately $50 million with over $30 million of that driven by higher-than-expected incident costs.

其他費用增加約5,000萬美元，其中超過3,000萬美元來自高於預期的事故相關成本。

Moving to slide 15. Let me provide some visibility to 2026. We are tightly managing costs in this uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, controlling what we can control. If anything, the uncertainty has heightened since our last January call. We have updated our view of WTI from USD60 to USD70 per barrel to $80 to $110, with a wider range driven by higher fuel volatility.

接著看第15頁。我提供一些對2026年的能見度。在這個不確定的地緣政治與總體經濟環境下，我們正嚴格管理成本，掌控我們能掌控的部分。若有的話，自我們上次1月電話會議以來，不確定性反而加劇。我們已將對 WTI 的看法從每桶60美元調整為70美元，並更新為每桶80至110美元的更寬區間，反映燃油波動性提高。

We have also updated our FX assumption from $0.715 to the current spot rate of $0.73 for the balance of the year. Our effective tax rate continues to be in the range of 25% to 26%. With that context, we are maintaining our directional guidance of flattish volumes with earnings slightly exceeding volume growth for 2026.

我們也將匯率假設從0.715更新為今年剩餘期間的現貨匯率0.73。我們的有效稅率仍維持在25%至26%的區間。在此背景下，我們維持2026年指引方向：運量大致持平，而獲利成長將略高於運量成長。

So in conclusion, let me reiterate a few points. We continue to deliver strong operating and financial performance. We have a renewed commercial intensity. Our customers continue to benefit from our excellent service and strong operating performance. We are very pleased with our Q1 results, a solid start to the year and the footing to deliver on our guidance.

最後總結，我再重申幾點。我們持續交出強勁的營運與財務表現。我們的商業動能與投入度已再度提升。客戶持續受惠於我們卓越的服務與強勁的營運表現。我們對第一季結果非常滿意，這是今年穩健的開局，也為我們達成指引奠定基礎。

Let me pass it back to Tracy.

我把時間交回給 Tracy。

Thank you. Christa, we will go to questions.

謝謝。Christa，我們進入問答。

(Operator Instructions) Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

（接線員指示）RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

I think you touched very nicely on the operating leverage, which was the key question here, Tracy. So maybe if I turn over to capacity, obviously, you saw some excellent improvement in your Edson Subdivision, removing that as a pretty elevated pinch point.

Tracy，我想你已很清楚地談到營運槓桿，這也是這裡的關鍵問題。那我或許轉到產能面來問：很明顯你們在 Edson 支線看到非常出色的改善，將其作為一個相當嚴重的瓶頸點移除。

It also gave you some service opportunities. I'm curious, you've got two more meaningful projects going on Zanardi Bridge and Glen Valley Abrahamson projects. When those come out, are those causing a big pinch point right now?

這也帶來了一些服務機會。我很好奇，你們還有兩個更具規模的專案正在進行：Zanardi Bridge 與 Glen Valley Abrahamson 專案。在這些專案完成之前，它們目前是否正造成很大的瓶頸？

And really my question is when those are completed in 2027, are you expecting to see a nice pickup in service and fluidity there? And as a result of that, also, would you see another step down in CapEx in 2027 when those are completed? Or do you have other projects that would likely fill in that CapEx envelope?

而我真正的問題是，當這些在 2027 年完成時，您是否預期那裡的服務水準與運行順暢度會有明顯提升？此外，基於此，當這些在 2027 年完成時，您是否也會看到 2027 年的資本支出（CapEx）再下一個台階？或者您是否還有其他專案，可能會把這個 CapEx 額度填滿？

Walter, the operating -- I am very happy with the operating leverage that this team is producing. You saw us do it through last year. We had a great quarter in the fourth quarter, and this is a continuation of this that the railroad is running extremely well.

Walter，就營運——我對這個團隊所展現的營運槓桿非常滿意。你看到我們去年就做到了。我們第四季表現非常出色，而這只是延續；鐵路目前運行得非常好。

To your question, we, as you know, came to not the end, but the end of a piece of our big investment program in the middle of last year. Edson sub now is, what, two-third double tracked. We have seven incremental trainloads of capacity there that we can sell into. And what remains, as you say, is the Zanardi Bridge in Rupert and a siding just outside of Vancouver.

回到你的問題，我們如你所知，在去年年中並不是到終點，但完成了我們大型投資計畫中的一個階段。Edson 分線現在是——大概有三分之二已完成雙線化。我們在那裡新增了七列車次的運能，可以拿去銷售。而剩下的，如你所說，是 Rupert 的 Zanardi 橋，以及溫哥華外圍的一段會車線（siding）。

So as we complete those at the end of 2027, what the benefit that we're gaining is largely in Rupert, it's going to facilitate the ongoing volume expansion that Janet is driving -- for the volumes Janet is driving into Rupert. It's going to be critical for us in that last mile at Rupert. So it's more of a -- it's going to allow the capacity -- volume growth.

因此，當我們在 2027 年底完成這些時，我們獲得的效益主要是在 Rupert；它將促進 Janet 正在推動的——把貨量導入 Rupert 的持續擴張。這對我們在 Rupert 的最後一哩路至關重要。所以這更像是——它將使運能——支撐貨量成長。

In Vancouver, this is an investment that's going to continue to allow us to get the next increment of both volume and productivity or velocity through Vancouver. Vancouver is very tight, as you know. And I think you probably have seen this through your tours of Vancouver. So that -- those are both kind of no regret projects, and we're looking forward to their completion at the end of 2027.

在溫哥華，這項投資將持續讓我們在溫哥華取得下一個增量的貨量，以及生產力或速度（velocity）的提升。如你所知，溫哥華非常吃緊。而我想你在參觀溫哥華時可能也看到了。所以——這兩個基本上都是不會後悔的專案（no regret projects），我們也期待它們在 2027 年底完工。

As we go from there, I mean, Janet and team are out selling pretty hard and looking to put trains into that capacity. As we go into there, we'll see where we are from a capacity expansion perspective. We are looking at across the network, always where our pinch points are. I'm not expecting to find the next ones from a network perspective in the next few years. But we do have -- we will be spending a little bit on technology.

從那之後，我是說，Janet 和團隊正在非常積極地銷售，並希望把列車放進這些運能裡。當我們走到那一步時，我們會從運能擴張的角度看看我們所處的位置。我們一直在全網路範圍內檢視瓶頸點在哪裡。我不預期在未來幾年會從網路角度找到下一批瓶頸。但我們確實會——在科技方面投入一些資金。

There's some great opportunities there on the next generation of productivity. And so as we go forward, we'll see what that holds, but I'm not expecting a dramatic increase or decrease in capital expenditures as we go forward.

那裡有一些很好的機會，關於下一代的生產力提升。因此，往前看，我們會觀察會帶來什麼，但我不預期未來資本支出會出現大幅增加或大幅下降。

Pat, did you want to add any comments on that just before we go on?

Pat，在我們繼續之前，你想就這點補充幾句嗎？

I would add -- I would say, Walter, as you saw on the tour, first of all, no, neither of those points where we are investing neither Zanardi nor Glen Valley-Abrahamson are currently a pinch point. And I would say what you can see in our performance is the work we have done on the Edson sub has had a significant impact, positive impact on train speed and velocity in the Western region.

我補充——我會說，Walter，正如你在參觀時看到的，首先，不，無論是我們投資的 Zanardi 或 Glen Valley-Abrahamson，這兩個點目前都不是瓶頸。而我會說，你從我們的表現中可以看到，我們在 Edson 分線所做的工作，已對西部地區的列車速度與運行效率（velocity）帶來顯著且正面的影響。

The work we did around the Thornton Yard to get around the yard and kind of hit that and thread the needle of that gauntlet to landing at the customers. Those coupled together have really helped that throughput through Vancouver.

我們在 Thornton 編組場周邊所做的工作，讓列車能繞過編組場，並且某種程度上攻克那段、在狹窄通道中穿針引線，最後把車送到客戶端。這些結合在一起，確實幫助了溫哥華的整體通行量（throughput）。

Again, neither of these are creating a pinch point currently. But as we see volumes uptick and really the value of Glen Valley Abrahamson is as you get out of the DRZ with CPKC, it is the last section of single track, and we will fill in that, create that double track, and we will be able to get all of those trains closer to navigating those final few miles as we land at the customer.

再次強調，這兩個目前都沒有造成瓶頸。但當我們看到貨量上升時，Glen Valley Abrahamson 的價值在於：當你從與 CPKC 的 DRZ 出來後，那是最後一段單線區間；我們會把它補齊、建成雙線，讓所有這些列車更接近能順利通過最後幾英里，並在抵達客戶端時完成交付。

So very excited about those projects. But no, not creating a pinch point and what we've already seen with the Edson sub and the uptick in speed, we would expect to see the same impact from these projects.

所以我們對這些專案非常興奮。但不，這些並未造成瓶頸；而且就我們已經在 Edson 分線看到的速度提升，我們預期這些專案也會帶來同樣的影響。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Cowen.

Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Cowen。

Janet, I was hoping that you could elaborate a little bit more on some of the short-term opportunities from higher energy prices. But more importantly, if we are in a higher for longer energy price environment, what kind of growth opportunities might that open up?

Janet，我希望你能再多談一點高能源價格帶來的一些短期機會。但更重要的是，如果我們處在「高價維持更久」（higher for longer）的能源價格環境，這可能會開啟哪些成長機會？

Cherilyn, I'm going to start off by just giving Janet and her team a little bit of kudos. Janet has unleashed her sales force into the marketplace, and they're doing a great job of capitalizing on what is some really strong service when it comes -- you see that in share, you see that in some of the opportunities that Janet will talk to you about.

Cherilyn，我先從給 Janet 和她的團隊一些肯定開始。Janet 已經把她的銷售團隊全面投入市場，他們在把握我們目前非常強勁的服務表現方面做得很出色——你可以在市占上看到，也可以在 Janet 將要跟你談的一些機會上看到。

But they're also creating their own opportunities. That presence in front of our customers, the boots on the ground, you heard talk about what we're accomplishing on that is creating opportunities.

但他們也在創造自己的機會。在客戶面前的存在感、第一線的落地執行，你也聽到我們談到在這方面的成果，正在創造機會。

Janet, do you want to -- ?

Janet，你要不要——？

Yes, happy to. Thanks for the question, Cherilyn. So we are seeing some near-term benefit across a number of segments related to the higher prices. So we've seen an increase in the NGLs getting pushed into Prince Rupert and the comments that we just made on the capacity are really important because we see a long-term play at Prince Rupert for continued NGL export growth. We've got a little bit more crude that's moving.

好的，很樂意。謝謝你的問題，Cherilyn。所以我們確實看到，較高價格在多個業務區塊帶來一些短期效益。例如，我們看到更多 NGL（天然氣液）被推送到 Prince Rupert；而我們剛才對運能的評論非常重要，因為我們看到 Prince Rupert 在長期上仍有持續的 NGL 出口成長布局。我們也有多一些原油在運輸。

We've got some customers that have brought on some additional sets. We've got strength in refined products. We have maybe a little bit more at the margin in terms of domestic potash as nitrogen-based fertilizers have increased because of the Middle East disruption, we see a little bit more farmers switching to more potash applications. So we'll see how that plays out.

有些客戶新增了一些額外的編組（sets）。成品油（refined products）也很強勁。在邊際上，國內鉀肥（potash）可能也多了一點；由於中東擾動使氮肥價格上升，我們看到有些農民轉而增加鉀肥施用。所以我們會看看後續如何發展。

It's also been positive at the margin in terms of sulfur. That's another segment where Canada is just so well positioned to meet the changing global demand. Now I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know how long higher prices are going to last and what the broader impact may be on the macro. And I think that's why we're remaining appropriately cautious. But near term, we've actually seen some nice segments with some benefits that we're certainly capitalizing on. Thanks for the question.

在邊際上，硫磺（sulfur）也帶來正面影響。這也是加拿大在滿足全球需求變化方面具備很強優勢的另一個領域。我沒有水晶球，所以我不知道高價格會持續多久，以及對整體宏觀環境可能造成什麼更廣泛的影響。我想這也是我們保持適度謹慎的原因。但就短期而言，我們確實看到一些不錯的業務區塊受惠，我們也正在把握這些機會。謝謝你的問題。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

So it sounds like Tracy, had a bunch of safety call-outs, not used to hearing that much from CN. But you've averaged about a 330 basis points improvement in the operating ratio from first quarter to second quarter last few years. So maybe given Janet's thoughts on the volumes, some tougher comps coming up on some of the volumes, anything that would let you to underperform or outperform that historical average? I don't know if there's accident carry forward costs or anything else that you want to walk through, but just give us an idea of kind of what we can expect to go forward on the cost side.

所以聽起來 Tracy 提到了很多安全方面的重點，對 CN 來說不太習慣聽到這麼多。但過去幾年你們從第一季到第二季，營運比率平均改善約 330 個基點。所以也許考量 Janet 對貨量的看法、接下來某些貨量面臨較艱難的比較基期，有沒有什麼因素會讓你們低於或高於這個歷史平均？我不知道是否有事故延續成本或其他你想帶我們梳理的項目，但請給我們一些概念，讓我們了解未來在成本端大概可以期待什麼。

Ken, let me say this, and then I'm going to ask Ghislain to comment on the numbers. The engine and the underlying business model performed really well in Q1, right? And we did know that we'd have -- it will be the kind of the toughest quarter on a year-over-year earnings compare because some of the specific prior year benefits, and we've had the incidents that Pat talked about.

Ken，我先說這點，接著我會請 Ghislain 針對數字做評論。第一季我們的引擎與底層商業模式表現得非常好，對吧？而且我們也知道——由於前一年某些特定的一次性利多，加上 Pat 提到的那些事件，這一季在年對年獲利比較上會是最艱難的一季。

Here's what makes me happy as we look forward in Q2 and beyond. Network fluidity, asset and labor productivity, commercial execution, all improved, and they're continuing to improve. So the underlying engine is performing well. In Q2, the year-over-year comparable is less of an issue. And what we expect for the balance of the year is an acceleration in driving the bottom line results.

展望第二季及之後，讓我感到高興的是這些：網路流動性、資產與勞動生產力、商業執行力都改善了，而且還在持續改善。所以底層引擎運作良好。到了第二季，年對年可比性的問題就沒那麼大。而我們對今年剩餘期間的預期，是推動盈餘結果加速成長。

But Ghislain, do you want to comment on Q2?

不過 Ghislain，你要不要針對第二季評論一下？

Yes. Thanks, Tracy. Ken, listen, you're right. Typically, on a seasonality standpoint, the OR in Q2 is typically better than Q1. The dark cloud I'm seeing right now in Q2 is fuel. I mean, if fuel prices remain where they are and for the rest of the quarter, that could be a hit on the OR north of 200 basis points and a small hit on EPS of about a couple of pennies. So that's the cloud that I can see.

好的。謝謝，Tracy。Ken，你說得對。一般從季節性來看，第二季的 OR（營運比率）通常會比第一季更好。我目前在第二季看到的烏雲是燃油。我的意思是，如果燃油價格維持在目前水準並持續到本季剩餘時間，OR 可能會受到超過 200 個基點的衝擊，而 EPS 也可能小幅受影響，大約幾分錢。所以這就是我看到的那片烏雲。

And obviously, we don't control fuel prices. So -- and that's timing, by the way, because if I look at fuel and if fuel remains the same for the rest of the year, then it would be a tailwind in the second half of the year. So we'll see, but that's the dark cloud.

而且很明顯，我們無法控制燃油價格。所以——順帶一提，這也跟時間點有關；因為如果我看燃油，假設燃油在今年剩餘時間都維持不變，那麼在下半年反而會成為順風。所以我們再觀察，但這就是那片烏雲。

But you're right, from an engine standpoint, we're very -- we're quite confident in the way we're going to deliver in Q2. Thanks for the question.

不過你說得對，就引擎運作而言，我們對第二季的交付方式非常——我們相當有信心。謝謝你的提問。

Fadi Chamoun, BMO.

Fadi Chamoun，BMO。

So four months into the year and your RTMs are up like in that 3% range, which is a pretty good outcome from a growth perspective, obviously. And it sounds that you kind of -- you sound more positive on the volume picture today.

今年過了四個月，你們的 RTMs 大概成長在 3% 左右，從成長角度來看這顯然是相當不錯的結果。而且聽起來，你們現在對運量的情況也更正面一些。

And correct me if I'm wrong reading you on that. So is there still a path to improve operating ratio this year if we continue to see this volume trajectory? And I think looking at your four-week moving average in volume, you probably are tracking in that same range for the rest of this quarter potentially.

如果我解讀錯了請糾正我。所以，如果我們持續看到這樣的運量走勢，今年是否仍有改善營運比率的路徑？而且我想，從你們運量的四週移動平均來看，本季剩餘時間可能也會維持在相近的區間。

And my second question is just on the commercial intensity. I think it was mentioned several times. Maybe if Janet can give us a little bit of insight how exactly have you changed or are you changing how you approach commercial strategy for CN?

我的第二個問題是關於商業強度。我想這被提到好幾次了。也許 Janet 可以給我們一些洞見：你們究竟如何改變、或正在改變 CN 的商業策略做法？

So I'll start with that, Fadi. We are really happy with how the year started. But as we sit here, we have officially one quarter. We're coming up to four months, as you know, behind us. Our expectations of our commercial team remain very high. And I think that Janet and the team are performing to that out in the marketplace. I'll let her make some comments in a moment.

Fadi，我先回答這個。我們對今年的開局非常滿意。但就目前而言，我們正式走完了一個季度。如你所知，我們即將滿四個月。我們對商務團隊的期待仍然非常高。我認為 Janet 和團隊在市場上的表現也符合這些期待。我稍後會讓她補充一些評論。

The prudent thing for us to do right now is just given the extent of uncertainty out there, just to see how the next few months unfold before we take a different view. I'll tell you this, however, Pat has this operation running really well. And it's more productive as every quarter passes. We've talked about Janet and the team being focused on securing every available opportunity.

就目前來說，基於外部不確定性之大，我們最審慎的做法，是先觀察接下來幾個月的發展，再採取不同的看法。不過我可以告訴你，Pat 把營運管理得非常好。而且每過一個季度，生產力都更高。我們也談到 Janet 和團隊專注於把每一個可得的機會都拿下來。

But -- and that, I think, on the back of service, and that is on volume and on price. But the entire organization is leaning into driving value to the bottom line. And so we are leaning in very hard. We are being cautious given how much uncertainty is out there. We've experienced this. Things can change pretty quickly. We'll be ready for that. We're placing a high value on being nimble.

而且——我認為這是以服務為基礎，並體現在運量與價格上。但整個組織都在努力把價值導向最終獲利。因此我們非常積極投入。在外部不確定性這麼高的情況下，我們也保持謹慎。我們經歷過這種狀況。事情可能變得非常快。我們會為此做好準備。我們高度重視保持敏捷。

Janet, do you want to make some comments on what you're doing differently?

Janet，你要不要就你們有哪些不同做法談幾點？

Yes, I'm happy to. Thanks for the question, Fadi. So I think commercial intensity, what we really mean by that is speed of decision-making. And so what we've done is we've tried to really drive down decision-making to the front line so that when the account manager is sitting across the table from the customer, they feel empowered to figure out what that customer needs, how it fits on our network, how we price it appropriately and how we service it appropriately. And so that has been extremely helpful.

好的，我很樂意。謝謝你的問題，Fadi。我想所謂的商業強度，我們真正指的是決策速度。因此我們所做的是，盡可能把決策下放到第一線，讓客戶經理坐在客戶對面時，能夠有權限去判斷客戶需要什麼、如何在我們的網路上承接、如何適當定價，以及如何適當提供服務。這對我們非常有幫助。

We have implemented a new sales incentive plan for our regional sales team that is really focused on getting hunters out there in the marketplace and the boots on the ground and the knocking on the doors. We've also -- I think there's a couple of things I want to point to in terms of the quarter.

我們也為區域銷售團隊導入了新的銷售獎酬計畫，重點是讓「獵人型」業務走到市場上、腳踏實地、挨家挨戶敲門開發。另外——我想就本季還有幾點我想特別指出。

We had some really big benefits from the strong quality of our service, okay? So we had big wins, and those are some of the things that we talked about in the context of grain, and I'm going to take a little minute to brag on grain.

我們從服務品質的強勁表現中獲得了非常大的效益，好嗎？所以我們拿下了幾個重大勝利，這些也是我們在談穀物時提到的內容；我也想花一點時間稱讚一下穀物業務。

My team sent me out this morning to let me know that April, even though we still have two days left, will be another record month for Canadian grain shipments. Seven out of the last eight months have been all-time records. January was our second best. So that's a hell of a performance. I got to credit Pat and his team.

我的團隊今天早上告訴我，四月即使還剩兩天，也將再度成為加拿大穀物出貨的創紀錄月份。過去八個月中有七個月創下歷史新高。一月是我們史上第二好的月份。所以這真的是非常出色的表現。我必須把功勞歸於 Pat 和他的團隊。

I mentioned it in my formal remarks that the grain car cycle times were 15% better than last year. Now the crop is a crop. So do I think that some of this is maybe pulled forward? Possibly. But we also had some resolution around the Chinese tariffs on canola, and that's helping.

我在正式發言中提到，穀物車輛的週轉時間比去年改善了 15%。當然，作物就是作物。所以我是否認為其中一部分可能是提前出貨？有可能。但我們也看到中國對菜籽（canola）的關稅問題有所解決，這也在提供助力。

And I got to say, when you service performs that well, you get more business on your railroad. We had a little bit of incremental business as well that was service related in the context of potash and even some international intermodal up at Prince Rupert. So all of that performed very well. Some of it was related to that service benefit in Q1.

我得說，當你的服務表現如此出色時，你的鐵路就會獲得更多生意。我們也有一些增量業務同樣與服務相關，包括鉀肥（potash），甚至在魯珀特王子港（Prince Rupert）的一些國際聯運（intermodal）業務。所以這些表現都非常好。其中一部分與第一季的服務紅利有關。

Now where I'm really, really pleased is just those base hits. And it's the team out there, every carload counts, getting a hit, getting a hit here and there. I gave you, I think, six examples in my remarks. I had a list of about 12 and then the IR team told me that was maybe too long of a list. But it is broad-based.

而我真正、真正感到滿意的是那些「基本安打」。就是外面的團隊，每一車皮都很重要，在各處一點一滴地拿下一筆、再拿下一筆。我想我在發言中給了你大概六個例子。我原本列了大約 12 個，但 IR 團隊告訴我那可能太長了。但這是全面性的、廣泛分布的。

I think that's the key message I want you to take away that the team is out there getting wins. We really understand well the capacity that we have in our network. And so we're being really smart about selling into that capacity, getting those 5, 10 extra cars on the merchandise trains. So we're moving business at a low incremental cost.

我認為這是我希望你帶走的關鍵訊息：團隊正在外面不斷取得勝利。我們非常清楚了解我們網路中的可用運能。因此，我們在把業務賣進這些運能時非常精明，在商品列車上多增加那5到10輛車。所以我們能以很低的增量成本推動業務。

And even on the intermodal side, we've been really strategic about filling out the trains that are moving on non-peak days. So we know where we have capacity and we can sell into that, both in intermodal and carload at a low cost.

即使在聯運方面，我們也一直非常有策略地把非尖峰日運行的列車填滿。所以我們知道哪裡有運能，並且能以低成本把業務賣進去，無論是聯運還是整車運輸。

So Fadi, the team is super energized. Like Tracy said, we've been unleashed, and we're out there doing everything that we can, and we want to make sure that maybe Pat will give you some capacity pinch points in the future. So with that, I think we -- did we want to address the OR part of Fadi's question?

所以，Fadi，團隊非常振奮。就像Tracy說的，我們被放手去做了，我們在外面竭盡所能地推進一切；我們也希望或許Pat未來會向你說明一些運能的瓶頸點。因此，接下來我想我們——我們要不要回應Fadi問題中關於OR的部分？

I think OR follows volume. When you watch what we are seeing on the productivity side, there's no barriers there. And really, as you all know, OR is an outcome of some volume growth and some tight management of costs and a little pricing action. So I think we'll see it follow.

我認為OR會隨著運量變動。從我們在生產力端看到的情況來看，沒有任何障礙。而且如各位所知，OR是一些運量成長、嚴格的成本管理，以及一點點定價動作所共同帶來的結果。所以我認為我們會看到它跟著走。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

Konark Gupta，豐業銀行（Scotiabank）。

Ghislain, do you have any updated view on the full year EPS impact from fuel and FX based on your revised assumptions? And I just really wanted to ask one question from Pat and team on your capacity, I guess. I mean, do you need to relook at your capacity investments and CapEx as these new opportunities that Janet was talking about, they come to fruition over the next few years?

Ghislain，基於你修訂後的假設，你對燃油與匯率（FX）對全年EPS影響是否有更新的看法？另外我也想就運能向Pat和團隊問一個問題。我的意思是，隨著Janet提到的這些新機會在未來幾年逐步落地，你們是否需要重新檢視運能投資與資本支出（CapEx）？

Yes. Thanks, Konark. So on fuel, as we said in my opening remarks, there was a headwind of about $0.04 or 80 basis points on the OR negative in Q1. As I said, in Q2, if fuel prices remain where they are, would be a headwind of a couple of pennies on EPS, and it would be an OR of over 200 basis points negative impact. Now as I said, in the second half of the year, if the prices stay where they are, it will be a tailwind.

是的。謝謝你，Konark。關於燃油，如我在開場致詞所說，第一季有大約0.04美元的逆風，或對OR造成約80個基點的負面影響。如我所說，第二季若燃油價格維持在目前水準，對EPS會有幾美分的逆風，且對OR會有超過200個基點的負面影響。而如我所說，在下半年，如果價格維持在目前水準，將會轉為順風。

I would tell you it's about $0.15 of tailwind in the second half of the year. So when you put that all together, it could be a tailwind of about $0.10 of EPS, but it would be negative to the OR by about 20 basis points because as you know, fuel surcharge and expenses, you're adding it at 100% OR. So even if it's a tailwind on EPS, it could be a headwind on OR. So that's the impact.

我會告訴你，下半年大約有0.15美元的順風。把這些加總起來，EPS可能約有0.10美元的順風，但OR大約會負面20個基點，因為如你所知，燃油附加費與燃油費用是以100% OR計入的。所以即使對EPS是順風，對OR也可能是逆風。這就是影響。

Now as you know, fuel is extremely volatile. Like I mean, a couple of days ago, it wasn't -- WTI was in the $90 range. today is up over 100. So it's moving. And this is why in our guidance that we maintain, we're not assuming that tailwind of the second half of the year.

如你所知，燃油非常波動。例如幾天前，WTI還在90美元區間；今天已經上到100以上。所以它在變動。這也是為什麼在我們維持的指引中，我們並沒有假設下半年會有那個順風。

We're being conservative because we don't know where it's going to go. So we're assuming that we would -- that the price would go back to what we assumed in the plan. I hope that answers your question, Konark.

我們採取保守作法，因為我們不知道它會走向哪裡。所以我們假設價格會回到我們在計畫中所假設的水準。希望這回答了你的問題，Konark。

Okay. Pat, comments on the capacity.

好的。Pat，請談談運能。

Yes. I would say, touché, Janet, I certainly hope that capacity is challenged over the next few years because that's where railroaders demonstrate their greatness is when you are up against the capacity, you show just how well you can handle that volume.

是的。我會說，說得好（touché），Janet。我當然希望未來幾年運能會面臨挑戰，因為鐵路人展現卓越之處，正是在你逼近運能上限時，你會展現自己能把這些運量處理得多好。

But let me say this, the volume that we -- the heavy investment cycle we had in the last few years has significantly improved our capacity in the West. You can see it in the metrics, the positive uptick in speed. We are poised for that growth, ready for it. We have those projects that we've outlined, both going into Vancouver and Prince Rupert that we will complete over the next couple of years. And we're ready for the growth. We want to see it come on.

但我想說的是，我們在過去幾年的大量投資循環，已顯著提升了我們在西部的運能。你可以從指標中看到，速度有正向的提升。我們已為成長做好準備，蓄勢待發。我們也有已經對外說明的那些專案，包括通往溫哥華與魯珀特王子港（Prince Rupert）的專案，將在未來幾年完成。而我們已準備好迎接成長。我們希望看到它到來。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

Chris Wetherbee，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）。

I guess, we're about a-third of the way through the year. RTMs are still positive. I know you're talking about flattish for the full year. So maybe, Janet, if you could give us a little bit of perspective on how you think the shape of the rest of the year plays out? I guess there's maybe sounds like there's maybe a little bit of grain that was pulled forward into this really strong performance we've seen over the last couple of months. So maybe that's one area. I know there obviously is some trade and other dynamics playing out.

我想，今年大概已經過了三分之一。RTM仍然是正成長。我知道你們談到全年可能持平。所以Janet，也許你可以給我們一些觀點，說明你認為今年剩餘時間的走勢會如何發展？我想聽起來可能有一些穀物運量被提前到我們過去幾個月看到的這段非常強勁的表現中。所以那可能是一個面向。我知道顯然也有一些貿易與其他動態正在發生。

And then sort of along with that, I guess, as we think about the moving parts in yields or cents per RTM, obviously, negative with some obvious headwinds in the first quarter. How do we think that plays? Because obviously, that's going to be very key in terms of getting that revenue growth up and that operating leverage dropping through. So just some thoughts on volume and yield going forward.

另外，延伸來看，當我們思考單位收益的變動因素（以每RTM的美分計），第一季在一些明顯逆風下呈現負向。我們該如何看待後續走勢？因為顯然，這將是推升營收成長、並讓營運槓桿得以落到獲利上的關鍵。所以想請教對未來運量與單位收益的一些看法。

Yes. Thanks, Chris, for the question. So there are a lot of moving pieces here. And we kind of give you the art and science of the chart in the slides. What I would say is when I look at Q2 and I look at the half two, there are a couple of headwinds that we're watching in the second quarter.

是的。謝謝你，Chris，謝謝你的問題。這裡有很多變動因素。我們在簡報投影片的圖表中，某種程度上提供了其中的「藝術與科學」。我想說的是，當我看第二季以及下半年時，第二季有幾個我們正在關注的逆風。

So we have potash, for example, where in Q1, we had a bit of an easier year-over-year comp because we had a terminal in the East Coast that was shut down in the first quarter. They're going to take a similar shutdown, but this time, it's in the second quarter. So I'm mindful of that.

例如鉀肥（potash），在第一季我們的年對年比較基期稍微容易一些，因為第一季東岸有一座碼頭關閉。他們會進行類似的停工，但這次是在第二季。所以我對此保持留意。

The frac sand volumes were weak to start the year, which is unusual, but the natural gas prices in Canada had been low, and there was a slower ramp-up than I think we thought for the egress of LNG and of the West Coast that kind of impacted drilling.

壓裂砂（frac sand）運量在年初偏弱，這並不尋常；但加拿大天然氣價格一直偏低，而且液化天然氣（LNG）從西岸外運的爬坡速度比我們原先想的更慢，某種程度上影響了鑽探活動。

What I'm seeing more recently is actually an uptick in frac sand volumes in the US. We've significantly increased the number of trains that we're moving on the US side into the Marcellus Shale region, likely another benefit related to the Middle East. As I mentioned, grain has been strong, but I feel like that's pulled forward.

我最近看到的是，美國的壓裂砂運量其實有所回升。我們已大幅增加在美國端開行、前往馬塞勒斯頁岩（Marcellus Shale）地區的列車數量，這很可能也是與中東相關的另一項受益。如我提到的，穀物表現一直很強，但我覺得那是被提前拉動了。

What I'm telling you is we just don't have a whole lot of visibility on the second half. You called out trade, and Tracy may want to make some comments on that. If you can give me a high confidence level about how long the Middle East situation is going to last and how long oil prices are going to be high, I might be able to give you a better sense of volume. That's where we're still kind of being mindful of that macro environment.

我想告訴你的是，我們對下半年其實沒有太多能見度。你提到了貿易，Tracy 可能想就此補充幾點。如果你能很有把握地告訴我中東局勢會持續多久、油價會維持高檔多久，我或許就能更清楚地判斷運量。這也是我們仍在留意整體總體環境的原因。

But I'm pleased, really pleased with the way the volumes have come in so far. And like I said, some of its these big wins in Q1 and a lot of its these base hits. Q2 may be a little bit more challenged. I'll call out another segment, international intermodal, where remember last year, we had a tougher winter. And so we had some ground count to work through in the second quarter.

不過我很滿意，真的很滿意目前為止的運量表現。而且如我所說，其中一部分來自第一季的幾個大單，另外很大一部分則是這些穩健的小幅增長。第二季可能會稍微更具挑戰。我再點出另一個業務區塊：國際聯運（intermodal）。還記得去年我們遇到較嚴峻的冬季。因此第二季我們還需要消化一些基期因素。

And then we had pull forward of the tariffs. We actually had record shipments in the second quarter last year to Toronto. So that will be another segment where the year-over-year comp is a little bit tougher. And then, of course, we have in Q2 still the higher tariffs hitting our metals and minerals segment. Those tariffs were applied last year at the beginning of June. And so I've still got to work through a little bit of that noise level.

另外還有關稅提前拉貨的影響。事實上，去年第二季我們運往多倫多的出貨量創下紀錄。因此這也會是另一個年對年比較較為吃力的區塊。當然，第二季我們的金屬與礦物業務仍會受到較高關稅的衝擊。這些關稅是在去年六月初開始適用。所以我仍需要再消化一些這類雜訊。

I am encouraged, again, cautiously optimistic around aluminum coming back into the US. We've seen some shifts there where it was going offshore and some of those shipments into the US have resumed again. So it's a lot of moving pieces. I've been in this business 30 years. I don't think I've ever seen so many moving pieces.

我仍受到鼓舞，對鋁材重新回流美國市場抱持審慎樂觀。我們看到一些變化：先前有部分外移到海外，而現在部分運往美國的出貨又開始恢復。所以變動因素很多。我在這個行業做了 30 年。我想我從沒看過有這麼多變動因素同時在發生。

But Tracy, maybe you want to comment on the trade.

不過 Tracy，也許你想就貿易議題補充一下。

Yes. I would say, Chris, as we put our plan together for this year, it's impossible to predict where the whole discussions on the USMCA or the trade flows, even on the broader tariffs outlook will land. So we've assumed and continue to assume as we look forward that nothing will change on that front because it's -- I think it's the only thing we can assume.

好的。我會說，Chris，當我們制定今年的計畫時，無論是美墨加協定（USMCA）的整體討論走向、貿易流向，甚至更廣泛的關稅前景，最終會落在哪裡都不可能預測。因此我們的假設是、也會持續假設：在這方面不會有任何改變，因為——我認為這是我們唯一能做的假設。

But I would tell you this, over the last year, in conversations with the administrations on both sides of the -- in Canada and the United States, it is clear to me that in both administrations, this agreement is important and that a constructive path forward would be positive for all. And you can see some of the jockeying in the press as we go forward.

但我可以告訴你，過去一年裡，透過與加拿大與美國雙方政府的交流，我很清楚地感受到：在兩邊政府眼中，這項協議都很重要，而且建設性的前進方向對各方都會是正面的。而且你也能從媒體報導中看到，隨著進展會有一些角力。

But I think that although the time line isn't yet clear, those conversations will take place. And we're going to remain close both to the process and what's going on as well as to our customers as they respond and make or adjust their plans. I know Janet is sitting next to them on all of that. So as we go forward, it is one of the things that could have a positive outcome, could have a more problematic outcome, but we'll be ready to manage it. Thanks, Chris.

不過我認為，雖然時間表尚未明朗，這些對話終究會發生。我們會持續緊密關注流程與進展，同時也會貼近我們的客戶，因為他們會因應情勢做出或調整其計畫。我知道 Janet 在這方面一直與他們並肩合作。因此往前看，這件事可能帶來正面結果，也可能帶來較棘手的結果，但我們會做好準備來管理它。謝謝你，Chris。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

So Janet, I think last year, you called out about $350 million of revenue hit from tariffs. I'm just wondering if there's a way you could help us think about what that tariff impact is going to be on a '26 basis year-over-year? Is it getting better? Is it getting worse? And then in the metal side, this offer to the Trump administration has made to exchange tariff relief for commitments to move production. If you could comment at all on how that's resonating with customer base and kind of what that could mean going forward, I'd appreciate it.

Janet，我記得去年你提到關稅造成約 3.5 億美元的營收衝擊。我想請問，你是否能協助我們思考：以 2026 年為基準、年對年來看，關稅影響會是什麼樣子？是在改善嗎？還是在惡化？另外在金屬方面，針對川普政府提出以關稅減免交換移轉產能承諾的提案。如果你能評論一下這在客戶群中的反應，以及未來可能意味著什麼，我會很感謝。

So I think on the actual financial impact of the tariffs, as I mentioned, we're kind of coming into the second quarter where after the second quarter, we'll be lapping the worst of the tariffs. So I think you should think about it in that context. I would also say that we're particularly pleased -- I'm particularly pleased with the way the commercial team has worked so closely with our customers to mitigate the impacts and to find new trade flows.

關於關稅的實際財務影響，如我提到的，我們正進入第二季；而在第二季之後，我們就會開始與關稅衝擊最嚴重的期間形成「基期對照」（lapping）。所以我認為你應該在這個脈絡下來看待。我也想說，我們特別滿意——我個人特別滿意——商務團隊與客戶緊密合作，以降低影響並尋找新的貿易流向。

So we found new business, steel, for example, moving within Canada. We've got more business of scrap US to US. So we're finding the way. Water finds its way. The team has been able to work with customers to help them mitigate a lot of that.

例如，我們找到了新的業務：鋼材在加拿大境內移動。我們也增加了更多美國境內（US to US）的廢鋼業務。所以我們正在找到方法。水總會找到出路。團隊能與客戶合作，協助他們在很大程度上緩解這些影響。

So I would say the tariff impact from that sense is lessening because we're figuring out how to work around it, how to find new markets, how to do different things. In the context of the latest commentary around trade negotiations and trade-off of tariff relief and production, it's a bit early to comment on that. I think we'll take more of a wait-and-see approach. Thanks for the question.

因此我會說，從這個角度看，關稅影響正在減弱，因為我們正在摸索如何繞開它、如何找到新市場、如何採取不同做法。至於近期關於貿易談判、以及以關稅減免換取產能承諾的最新評論，目前要評論還太早。我想我們會採取較多觀望的態度。謝謝你的提問。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

JPMorgan 的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Obviously, we'll have the updated merger application from UP and NS tomorrow. So maybe Tracy, you can give us a little bit of thoughts and maybe some background of the things you've been posting on your website to kind of call out some of the analysis and some issues that you found with that. Do you think that's going to get more or less resolved here when we get an updated document with perhaps some new information?

很明顯，明天我們會看到 UP 和 NS 更新後的合併申請。所以 Tracy，也許你可以分享一些想法，並補充一下你在網站上發布的內容背景，主要是指出你們所做的一些分析以及你們發現的一些問題。你認為當我們拿到更新文件、可能包含一些新資訊時，這些問題會在這裡得到更多或更少的解決嗎？

And maybe just secondly, what are the key things you're looking at when we get that updated document tomorrow as the review really starts to kick off with a fresh start, I would assume, with a bunch of new documents and information. So any thoughts there would be helpful.

第二點，當明天拿到更新文件、審查程序真正開始重新啟動——我想應該會有一批新文件與資訊——你們最關注的關鍵事項是什麼？如果能分享一些看法會很有幫助。

Yes, Brian, it's an interesting topic, isn't it? We are eager to see the application when it comes out tomorrow. And I think Jim recently confirmed that it would be tomorrow. Our position on the concept of the merger hasn't really changed. We believe strongly in competition.

是的，Brian，這確實是個有意思的議題，不是嗎？我們很期待看到明天公布的申請文件。我想 Jim 最近也確認會在明天。我們對合併概念的立場其實沒有改變。我們堅信競爭的重要性。

And the merger proposal to be accepted needs to demonstrate, as you know, it's in the public interest and that it enhances rail competition. Now it's a high bar, granted it's as yet undefined, but it's a pretty high bar.

而且如你所知，要讓合併提案被接受，必須證明它符合公共利益，並且能提升鐵路競爭。這門檻很高，雖然目前尚未被明確定義，但確實是相當高的門檻。

And the first application, in our view, fell really far short of demonstrating that the merger would achieve this. And so -- and it also had -- and this is what we were pointing out in our submissions that it had a number of issues in the data and the approach used in the analysis, not in the model that they use, but just in the quality of the data, which can impact things like the sufficiency of the operating plan and the environmental assessment, those types of things.

而在我們看來，第一份申請文件距離證明合併能達成這些目標還差得很遠。此外——這也是我們在提交意見中指出的——其在數據與分析方法上存在多項問題；不是他們使用的模型本身，而是數據品質的問題，這會影響例如營運計畫的充分性與環境評估等事項，諸如此類。

So we're looking forward to seeing the revised application. Our interest is to make sure that this is fact-based. -- high-quality facts and that it is a rigorous review. We do believe that remedies will be required and considerable remedies. But we also believe that if this is to go forward, there's a meaningful opportunity to use our network in a manner that would introduce further competition, benefit the global economy, our customers and our business.

因此我們期待看到修訂後的申請。我們關注的是確保這一切以事實為基礎——高品質的事實——並且接受嚴謹的審查。我們確實相信需要補救措施，而且是相當多的補救措施。但我們也相信，如果此案要往前推進，將有一個重要機會以某種方式運用我們的網路，進一步引入競爭，讓全球經濟、我們的客戶以及我們的業務受益。

So we'll be watching this very closely. I think our guys have a big weekend ahead of them as they get the merger and go through it and look for what adjustments have been made. This is the most consequential thing that's happened in our industry in the last 20 years, and it's something that we're paying very close attention to and will be actively engaged in. Looking forward to seeing what it holds. Thanks, Brian.

所以我們會非常密切地關注這件事。我認為我們的團隊這個週末會很忙，他們會拿到合併案並加以研讀，看看做了哪些調整。這是過去20年來我們產業中最具重大影響的一件事，我們正非常密切地關注，並將積極參與其中。期待看看它會帶來什麼。謝謝你，Brian。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

Maybe just on that point, Tracy, like on remedies, do you think there's a path to negotiated remedies? Or is this about waiting for the STB to prescribe remedies? I don't know if you have any thoughts or color there? And then, Janet, I just wanted -- like you keep saying like we're going to -- every carload counts. At the same time, you keep talking about pricing discipline.

也許就這一點，Tracy，關於補救措施，你認為有沒有透過協商達成補救措施的路徑？還是說這就是在等 STB 規定補救措施？不確定你是否有任何想法或補充說明？另外，Janet，我只是想問——你一直說我們會——每一車皮都很重要。同時，你又一直在談定價紀律。

Like how do you balance wanting incremental volume, but wanting to be price disciplined because while, yes, the comment OR follows volume, I would think OR even more so follows price. So yes, just thoughts on those two things.

你要如何在想要增量運量、但又要維持定價紀律之間取得平衡？因為雖然，是的，你的評論是 OR 會跟著運量走，但我會認為 OR 更是跟著價格走。所以，是的，想聽聽你對這兩點的看法。

Okay. Scott, thanks. I'll start and then Janet, I'll give you -- you can take the second half of the question. Listen, I think we've got a long path to go, a negotiated outcome. it requires two interested parties and two parties that are willing to negotiate.

好的。Scott，謝謝。我先回答，然後 Janet，我把問題的後半段交給你。聽著，我認為要走到協商的結果還有很長的路；這需要兩個有意願的當事方，也需要兩方都願意談判。

And so far, I don't think that, that has happened, but we'll see how that unfolds. It is a very long put to imagine the concessions or the remedies that would have to be in place in order to have this merger application reach the hurdle that we believe is contained in the new rule.

到目前為止，我不認為那已經發生，但我們看看後續如何發展。要想像必須做出哪些讓步或設置哪些補救措施，才能讓這份合併申請跨過我們認為新規則所設定的門檻，這是一個非常長的推演。

So with that, I have full confidence in the STB and the rigor of their assessment. And I do think that there's going to be lots that come out of that part of the process as well. I'll leave it at that, and we'll see what comes out in the application tomorrow. Janet?

因此，我對 STB 以及其評估的嚴謹性充滿信心。我也確實認為，這個流程的那一部分也會產生很多結果。我就先說到這裡，明天看看申請文件會寫些什麼。Janet？

Thanks for the question, Scott. So for me, what counts the most is contribution dollars. And there's a way to get contribution dollars from pricing, and there's a way to get it from volume. And what I'm asking my team is to use both levers smartly, strategically and get it from both so that we grow contribution, and that's what will help OR. Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的問題，Scott。對我來說，最重要的是貢獻毛利（contribution dollars）。貢獻毛利可以透過定價取得，也可以透過運量取得。我要求我的團隊要聰明且有策略地同時運用這兩個槓桿，從兩邊都去取得，讓我們的貢獻成長，而這才會幫助 OR。謝謝你的問題。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley 的 Ravi Shanker。

Tracy, just a follow-up on your initial thoughts on USMCA. Can you help us bracket what the bull case and the bear case here might be to your understanding kind of when you think about the potential kind of opportunities here, what kind of volume growth are you trying to size for and that the network can carry? At the same time, what are the potential kind of negative outcomes here? And how quickly can you adjust for that?

Tracy，針對你一開始對 USMCA 的看法，我想追問一下。你能否幫我們界定一下你理解中的多頭情境與空頭情境可能是什麼？也就是當你思考這裡潛在的機會時，你們試圖估算的運量成長大概會是多少、而網路能承載多少？同時，潛在的負面結果可能有哪些？以及你們能多快做出調整？

That's a big question. So we are -- as we've gone through all of the analysis on what can happen on this front over the last year, I would tell you there's a very wide range. But what we've also come to understand is how important the trade between the three countries involved in the USMCA is to each of those countries. And as we increasingly get into a world where the geopolitics are more uncertain and higher tens. I think that it just reinforces the importance of what we can do as North America.

這是一個很大的問題。所以我們——在過去一年針對這方面可能發生的情況做了所有分析之後，我會告訴你，範圍非常廣。但我們也逐漸理解到，USMCA 涉及的三個國家之間的貿易，對各自國家有多麼重要。而且當我們愈來愈進入一個地緣政治更不確定、緊張程度更高的世界時，我認為這更強化了北美能夠共同做到的事情的重要性。

Having said that, I think that there's lots of discussions ahead before we arrive at what the actual outcome is going to be. We are spending a lot of time -- I spend a lot of time with the administration. Janet spends a lot of time with our customers. We're deep in kind of what the options are. The government in Canada, of course, is very focused not only on the USMCA, but on establishing trades or increasing global trade, diversifying into increased global trade, not less North American trade, but in addition, increased global trade. We are really well and uniquely positioned to capitalize on that given where our network is across North America, sitting on top of natural resources that the world of the globe, that North America and the globe needs.

話雖如此，我認為在我們得出實際結果之前，還會有很多討論。我們投入了很多時間——我花很多時間與政府當局交流。Janet 花很多時間與我們的客戶交流。我們深入研究各種選項。當然，加拿大政府不僅非常關注 USMCA，也著重於建立貿易或提升全球貿易，將貿易多元化、增加全球貿易；不是減少北美貿易，而是在此之外增加全球貿易。考量到我們在北美的網路布局、且位於北美及全球所需的天然資源之上，我們確實具備非常良好且獨特的定位來把握這些機會。

And so we're involved in a lot of discussions around the capacity at Rupert, the capacity of Vancouver, in Montreal, in Halifax and beyond as well as in the Gulf Coast. And so that's very encouraging to us. As we think about the impact of what's going on in the Middle East, the whole question around the importance of energy, the sources of energy globally has intensified, I think, across the globe. That over the longer term, as Janet says, presents significant opportunities for us.

因此，我們參與了許多討論，包含 Rupert 的產能、溫哥華的產能、蒙特婁、哈利法克斯及其他地區，以及墨西哥灣沿岸的相關產能。這讓我們非常受到鼓舞。當我們思考中東局勢的影響、以及能源重要性的整體議題時，全球對能源及其來源的重要性，我認為已經更加升溫。從更長期來看，正如 Janet 所說，這為我們帶來顯著的機會。

So I think that the question around the immediate review and renewal of the USMCA is important. I think on a broader basis, what's happening across the globe that will drive trade patterns is even more important. And there is without a doubt, some risk there but there is also, I would say, significant opportunity, and we're excited about that.

所以我認為，關於 USMCA 的即時審查與續約問題很重要。但從更宏觀的角度來看，全球正在發生、並將驅動貿易型態的事情更為重要。毫無疑問，這裡存在一些風險，但我也會說，機會同樣相當可觀，我們對此感到興奮。

What is going to be a premium through all of this is our ability to be nimble, be close to our customers to be able to respond. That's why Pat is so focused on the fluidity and the velocity of the operation because we need to be -- and unlocking our pinch point so that we have capacity no matter where our customers need to adjust. And we've made that a priority for the last few years, and we're capitalizing on that now. So we're excited as we look forward.

在這一切之中，最關鍵的是我們保持敏捷、貼近客戶並能夠回應的能力。這也是為什麼 Pat 如此專注於營運的流動性與速度，因為我們需要——並且要解除我們的瓶頸點，讓我們無論客戶需要如何調整，都能有產能。過去幾年我們已把這當作優先事項，而現在正在從中受益。因此，展望未來我們感到很振奮。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

UBS 的 Tom Wadewitz。

I wanted to ask, I think, probably for Ghislain, two questions on the cost side. So the casualty and other was pretty elevated in 1Q. I know there tends to be volatility related to weather and accents and things. But how should we think about that line going forward? Is that kind of a run rate that we should continue?

我想問，我認為可能是問 Ghislain 的，關於成本端的兩個問題。所以傷亡及其他（casualty and other）在第一季相當偏高。我知道這通常會因天氣、事故等因素而波動。但我們應該如何看待這個科目未來的走勢？這會是我們應該持續預期的常態水準（run rate）嗎？

Or is that -- and I know there's seasonality, too, but is that something where you'd say, hey, that's kind of unusual. It's going to come down?

還是說——我也知道有季節性——但你會說，嘿，這其實有點不尋常，之後會下降？

And then I guess the second on the cost one is just like there was some commentary about terminal work and a third of it is done now, two-third over the summer, the remaining two-third. How do we think about framing the potential cost benefit from that? Is that like, hey, that's always doing good things, that's $5 million to $10 million benefit? Or is it like a bigger impact?

然後我想第二個成本問題是：有些評論提到場站作業（terminal work）目前已完成三分之一，剩下的三分之二會在夏季完成。我們應該如何框架化其可能帶來的成本效益？這是像，嘿，這一直都會帶來好處，大概是 500 萬到 1,000 萬美元的效益？還是影響會更大？

Tom, thanks for the question. I missed the first part of your question. Can you repeat the first part of your question, please?

Tom，謝謝你的提問。我漏聽了你問題的第一部分。請你重複一下問題的第一部分，好嗎？

Yes, on casualty and casualty costs in the quarter in 1Q is elevated. So how do we think about that line going forward?

是的，關於本季第一季的意外傷害（casualty）以及意外傷害成本，確實偏高。那我們該如何看待這個科目未來的走勢？

Yes. I mean, as you know, the -- I called out in the prepared remarks that incident costs were higher by over $30 million. The overall variance is over $50 million. In there, there's always -- there's also some IT costs as we continue to migrate into cloud computing. So those are the big variances.

是的。我的意思是，如你所知——我在事先準備的發言中提到，事故成本增加了超過3,000萬美元。整體差異超過5,000萬美元。其中一向也會——另外還有一些IT成本，因為我們持續遷移到雲端運算。所以這些是主要的差異來源。

As we move forward, as you heard Pat, and I'll transfer it to him, so he can talk about fast tracking. But we're all over safety. We're all over our incident costs. I'm hoping and I'm very confident that this will come down coming forward. Like -- and typically, from a seasonality standpoint, Q1 is always a bit tougher on safety because of the snow and because of the ice and so on and so forth. But I would assume that this -- I'm very confident that this will come down going forward in Q2 and the rest of the year.

往後看，正如你聽到Pat所說，我也會把問題交給他，讓他談談fast tracking。但我們對安全非常重視。我們也非常關注事故成本。我希望、也非常有信心，未來這會下降。而且——通常從季節性角度來看，第一季在安全方面總是比較艱難，因為有雪、結冰等等。但我會假設——我非常有信心，第二季以及今年剩餘時間這會往下走。

But Pat, I'll turn it over to you for fast tracking.

但Pat，關於fast tracking我把時間交給你。

Yes. Let me start and just address the accident cost and say this. Safety is our number one priority. It is the foundation that we build our entire operation on. I want to make that clear.

好的。我先開始，先回應事故成本並說明一下。安全是我們的第一優先。這是我們建立整個營運的基礎。我想把這點講清楚。

Further, I would say this, I was raised in this business over the past three plus decades to believe and to lead my team from the front on the premise that all incidents and accidents can and must be eliminated. So let me say that first and foremost. Our safety critical maintenance remains fully funded. We're fully resourced from a people perspective. And in fact, we are -- we continue to do -- to in-source more of our capital work with CN people.

另外我想說的是，過去三十多年我在這個行業成長，我一直相信並且帶領團隊以身作則，基於一個前提：所有事件與事故都可以、也必須被消除。所以我首先要強調這一點。我們的安全關鍵維修（safety critical maintenance）仍然獲得充分資金支持。從人力角度來看，我們的資源也完全到位。而且事實上，我們——我們持續用CN自有人員把更多資本性工作內製化（in-source）。

Now as we transition over to fast track, let me say this, I have very high expectations for this project for fast track and the team is delivering. We've already captured $40 million in run rate savings, and we're about a third complete. Now let me say that as with any project, we started with the largest terminals first. The upside, the savings from this initiative are coming from better and higher terminal productivity, the lower dwell within the terminals and frankly, just all around tighter operating discipline.

現在轉到fast track，我想說的是：我對這個fast track專案有非常高的期待，而團隊也正在交付成果。我們已經取得4,000萬美元的年化（run rate）節省，而且目前大約完成了三分之一。另外我也要說，和任何專案一樣，我們先從最大的場站（terminals）開始。這項計畫的上行空間與節省，來自更好、更高的場站生產力、場站內更低的停留時間（dwell），坦白說，也來自整體更嚴謹的營運紀律。

While we do this work, we also evaluate all of our facilities, our rubber tire fleet to drive further utilization and cost improvements. As we continue to roll through the remaining sites, we do see a clear path to unleashing more savings and better service reliability. So I am very excited about fast track, and we are delivering with this initiative.

在推動這些工作時，我們也評估所有設施與我們的橡膠輪胎車隊（rubber tire fleet），以提升使用率並進一步改善成本。隨著我們持續推進其餘據點，我們確實看到一條清晰路徑，可以釋放更多節省並提升服務可靠性。所以我對fast track非常振奮，而我們也正在透過這項計畫交付成果。

We have time for one more question. Benoit Poirier, Desjardins.

我們還有時間再問一題。Desjardins的Benoit Poirier。

My question is for Janet. You've been successful with $100 million of revenue conversion this quarter. Could you talk maybe about your bidding pipeline? What do you foresee this year and whether you see a pickup in intermodal discussion given the fuel dynamics and tighter truck market? I know it's a much longer length of all at CN versus some of your US peers, but just curious to get your perspective on this.

我的問題要問Janet。你們本季成功完成了1億美元的營收轉換（revenue conversion）。你能否談談你們的投標管線（bidding pipeline）？你對今年的展望如何？以及在燃油動態與卡車市場更吃緊的情況下，你是否看到聯運（intermodal）討論升溫？我知道相較於你們一些美國同業，CN的運距長很多，但我想聽聽你的看法。

Benoit, thank you for the question. So a couple of things. On the visibility around this kind of boots on the ground growth pipeline, this is a dynamic list, okay? I get updated every week. We look at it. I've got almost 200 initiatives at the moment that are sitting on that list. And I have good line of sight on about $100 million again for next quarter.

Benoit，謝謝你的提問。我說幾點。關於這種「前線落地」的成長管線（boots on the ground growth pipeline）的能見度，這是一份動態清單，好嗎？我每週都會收到更新。我們會檢視它。目前清單上大概有將近200個計畫。而且我對下個季度大約1億美元的機會也有很清楚的掌握度。

As I said, the second half, well, we'll see when we get there. In terms of truck pricing, you're right, we are a little less exposed in our Canadian franchise from a trucking perspective. We have very long lengths of haul in our domestic intermodal business, probably upwards of 1,600 miles.

如我所說，下半年嘛，我們到時候再看。就卡車運價而言，你說得對，從卡車角度來看，我們在加拿大業務版圖的曝險相對較小。我們在國內聯運業務的運距非常長，可能高達1,600英里以上。

That being said, we are seeing the capacity tighten in truck markets, both in the US and in Canada, and that is supportive of pricing. So we're pleased to see that. Thanks for the question.

即便如此，我們確實看到美國與加拿大的卡車市場運能正在收緊，而這有利於定價。所以我們很樂見這樣的情況。謝謝你的提問。

So let me just make a couple of comments as we close today. We are very happy with the quarter that we just delivered. We are delivering on plan. I want to thank every member of this team for continuing to lean in. Our railroad is running very well. We continue to get more productive. The commercial team is creating opportunities, capitalizing on strong customer service and our focus on free cash flow is generating results.

那麼在今天結束前，我再補充幾點。我們對剛交出的這一季表現非常滿意。我們正按計畫推進。我要感謝團隊每一位成員持續投入。我們的鐵路營運狀況非常好。我們持續提升生產力。商務團隊正在創造機會，憑藉強勁的客戶服務把握機會，而我們對自由現金流的聚焦也正在產生成果。

So this engine is running well, and it -- and we are poised to capitalize on a stronger demand environment and some considerable operating leverage if and as the economy recovers. Thank you all for joining us today.

所以這具引擎運轉良好，而且——而我們也已準備好在需求環境轉強時把握機會；若經濟復甦，我們也將具備相當可觀的營運槓桿。感謝各位今天加入我們。

This concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與，現在可以掛線。