(CLW) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

午安.

My name is Brianna, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫布麗安娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Clearwater Paper First Quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 Clearwater Paper 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

所有線路均已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

演講者發言後，將進行問答環節。

If you would like to ask a question during this time and it's as star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

如果您想在這段時間內提出問題，並且電話鍵盤上會出現星號後面跟著數字 1 的問題。

To withdraw your question, please press star one again.

若要撤回您的問題，請再次按星號一。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Sloan Bohlen, Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係部門的斯隆·博倫 (Sloan Bohlen)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Sabrina, and good afternoon, and thank you for joining Clearwater Paper's First Quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

謝謝你，薩布麗娜，下午好，謝謝您參加 Clearwater Paper 的 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

Joining me on the call today are Arsen Cash, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sherri Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, financial results for the first quarter of 2024 were released shortly after today's market closed.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Arsen Cash 和高級副總裁兼財務長 Sherri Baker，2024 年第一季的財務業績在今天收盤後不久發布。

Along with the filing of our 10 Q, you will find a presentation of supplemental information, including a slide providing the company's current outlook posted on the Investor Relations page of our website at Clearwater Paper.com. Additionally, we will be providing certain non-GAAP information in this afternoon's discussion and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release and in the supplemental information provided on our website.

在提交我們的 10 Q 的同時，您還可以找到補充資訊的演示，其中包括一張提供公司當前前景的幻燈片，該幻燈片發佈在我們 Clearwater Paper.com 網站的投資者關係頁面上。此外，我們將在今天下午的討論中提供某些非 GAAP 信息，並且非 GAAP 信息與可比 GAAP 信息的調整將包含在新聞稿和我們網站上提供的補充信息中。

Please note Slide 2 of the supplemental information covering forward-looking statements rather than rereading this slide, we are going to incorporate it by reference into our prepared remarks.

請注意涵蓋前瞻性陳述的補充資訊投影片 2，而不是重新閱讀這張投影片，我們將透過引用將其納入我們準備好的評論中。

With that, let me turn the call over to Arsen.

現在，讓我把電話轉給阿爾森。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today.

下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

And as you saw from our press release, we had a great first quarter, driven by the continued outstanding performance of our tissue business and lower input costs.

正如您從我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，在我們的衛生紙業務持續出色的業績和較低的投入成本的推動下，我們第一季表現出色。

We also generated strong cash flows and reduced our net debt by an additional $33 million during the quarter.

本季我們也產生了強勁的現金流，並額外減少了 3,300 萬美元的淨債務。

This resulted in 1.38 times leverage ratio at the end of the quarter.

這導致季度末的槓桿率為1.38倍。

Slide 3 of our supplemental provides a summary of our consolidated results.

我們補充資料的投影片 3 總結了我們的綜合結果。

We reported net sales of $496 million and adjusted EBITDA of $62 million, which was at the higher end of our expectations.

我們公佈的淨銷售額為 4.96 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 6,200 萬美元，高於我們預期的上限。

Our tissue business drove the improvement by more than doubling its adjusted EBITDA from $19 million in the first quarter of last year to $46 million this year.

我們的衛生紙業務推動了這一改善，調整後的 EBITDA 從去年第一季的 1,900 萬美元增至今年的 4,600 萬美元，增長了一倍多。

Our paperboard business delivered $34 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter at a margin of 14%, even as the business was significantly impacted by severe weather events that disrupted our Lewiston operations in January.

我們的紙板業務在第一季實現了 3,400 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，利潤率為 14%，儘管該業務受到 1 月份擾亂劉易斯頓運營的惡劣天氣事件的嚴重影響。

Let me share a few highlights with you.

讓我與您分享一些亮點。

Tissue demand remained strong and we saw an improvement in customer demand for paperboard with higher order entry and growing backlogs.

生活用紙需求依然強勁，我們看到客戶對紙板的需求有所改善，訂單數量增加，積壓訂單不斷增加。

Pricing for paperboard decreased by 11% as compared to a year ago, which reflects market conditions and pricing trends as reported by RISI, both businesses experienced favorable input costs as compared to the first quarter of 2023, particularly in wood fiber, pulp, energy and freight we estimate that the Lewiston weather event impacted us by $15 million to $17 million during the quarter, primarily in our paperboard business.

紙板價格較去年同期下降 11%，這反映了 RISI 報告的市場狀況和定價趨勢，與 2023 年第一季相比，兩家企業的投入成本都有利，特別是在木纖維、紙漿、能源和貨運我們估計劉易斯頓天氣事件在本季對我們造成了1500 萬至1700 萬美元的影響，主要是我們的紙板業務。

We repurchased $1 million of our stock with a goal of offsetting shareholder dilution due to employee stock grants.

我們回購了 100 萬美元的股票，目的是抵銷員工股票授予造成的股東稀釋。

Finally, we have made significant progress on our planned acquisition of the Augusta, Georgia paperboard manufacturing facility from Graphic Packaging.

最後，我們計劃從 Graphic Packaging 收購喬治亞州奧古斯塔紙板製造工廠，並取得了重大進展。

We believe that we've cleared regulatory hurdles and expect to complete the acquisition shortly.

我們相信我們已經清除了監管障礙並預計很快完成收購。

We're looking forward to welcoming the Augusta team to Clearwater Paper and building a scaled, high-performing and diversified paperboard business that is well-matched to the needs of paperboard converters in North America.

我們期待奧古斯塔團隊加入克利爾沃特紙業，並建立一個規模化、高性能和多元化的紙板業務，該業務非常適合北美紙板加工商的需求。

With that, let's review each of our segments and provide some additional details.

接下來，讓我們回顧一下每個部分並提供一些額外的詳細資訊。

Let's begin with our paperboard business on Slide 4 of our supplemental materials, the most recent AF&PA data has shipments up 7.1% and production production up 10.5% in the first quarter of this year versus the fourth quarter of last year.

讓我們從補充資料投影片 4 上的紙板業務開始，最新的 AF&PA 數據顯示，與去年第四季相比，今年第一季的出貨量成長了 7.1%，產量增加了 10.5%。

Operating rates also rose to 88.3% in the first quarter versus 79.3% in the fourth quarter.

第一季的營運率也升至 88.3%，而第四季為 79.3%。

This aligns with our view that customer demand is improving and that inventory destocking is now largely behind us.

這與我們的觀點一致，即客戶需求正在改善，庫存去庫存現已基本成為過去。

In terms of pricing recently reported, the $40 per ton decrease in February for a total of $120 per ton since the middle of last year.

從最近公佈的價格來看，2 月每噸下跌了 40 美元，自去年中期以來總計每噸下跌了 120 美元。

This also aligns with our experienced a softening demand, drove prices lower in 2023.

這也與我們經歷的需求疲軟一致，導致 2023 年價格下降。

Our volume was mostly flat in the first quarter of this year compared to the first and fourth quarters of last year.

與去年第一季和第四季相比，我們今年第一季的銷售量基本持平。

While customer orders and backlogs grew our volumes were negatively impacted by lost production during the January weather event in the Williston.

雖然客戶訂單和積壓訂單有所增長，但我們的銷售量受到威利斯頓 1 月天氣事件期間生產損失的負面影響。

As I mentioned previously, we have strong conviction about the long-term prospects for our paperboard business and maintain our outlook for a gradual improvement in demand in 2024 and 2025.

正如我之前提到的，我們對紙板業務的長期前景充滿信心，並維持 2024 年和 2025 年需求逐步改善的前景。

Sherry will provide additional details for our second quarter outlook later in our prepared remarks.

雪莉稍後將在我們準備好的評論中提供有關第二季度前景的更多詳細資訊。

But we expect roughly $35 million to $40 million in additional maintenance costs in Q2 versus Q1 due to the planned major maintenance outage in Lewiston as well as additional scheduled maintenance work at our other sites.

但由於劉易斯頓計劃的重大維護停電以及我們其他站點的額外定期維護工作，我們預計第二季度與第一季相比將增加約 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元的維護成本。

In addition to the normal outage work being completed in Lewiston, we will also be replacing the recovery boiler tubes in the lower furnace, which is a $40 million capital project, of which approximately $28 million is being spent this year.

除了劉易斯頓正在完成的正常停電工作外，我們還將更換下部爐膛的回收鍋爐管道，這是一個耗資 4000 萬美元的資本項目，今年將花費約 2800 萬美元。

Our team has done a great job preparing for this extended outage to complete all the necessary work as well as to continue servicing our customers.

我們的團隊為這次延長的停電做好了出色的準備，以完成所有必要的工作並繼續為我們的客戶提供服務。

Please turn to slide 5 and let me provide you with a brief update on our tissue business.

請翻到投影片 5，讓我向您簡要介紹我們的紙巾業務。

Let's start with some broader industry trends.

讓我們從一些更廣泛的行業趨勢開始。

Private branded market share held steady at 36% according to the latest forecast of panel data.

根據最新面板資料預測，自有品牌市佔率穩定在36%。

As we've noted in the past, consumers are continuing to embrace private brands due to economic uncertainty and inflation.

正如我們過去所指出的，由於經濟不確定性和通貨膨脹，消費者繼續接受自有品牌。

Industry utilization rates rose to around 96% in January and February according to RISI, which we believe reflects strong market conditions as we mentioned previously, more than 200,000 tons of met capacity were removed between 2021 and 2023, which is driving the high industry utilization rates.

根據RISI 的數據，1 月和2 月行業利用率升至96% 左右，我們認為這反映了強勁的市場狀況，正如我們之前提到的，2021 年至2023 年間，超過20 萬噸的冶金產能被拆除，這推動了行業的高利用率。

Looking forward approximately 370,000 tons of capacity have been announced to be added between 2024 and 2026.

預計2024年至2026年間將新增約37萬噸產能。

And we believe that normal demand growth will absorb these additional tonnes, and we continue to expect industry tissue industry conditions to remain positive in the near to medium term.

我們相信，正常的需求成長將吸收這些額外的噸數，我們繼續預期衛生紙產業狀況在中短期內將保持樂觀。

Let's turn to our performance.

讓我們轉向我們的表現。

In the quarter.

在本季度。

Revenues grew by 2% year over year and adjusted EBITDA more than doubled.

營收年增 2%，調整後 EBITDA 成長了一倍以上。

Our adjusted EBITDA margin was at 18% compared to 8% in the first quarter of 2023.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 18%，而 2023 年第一季為 8%。

This was driven by strong operating performance, lower input costs and continued robust demand.

這是由強勁的經營業績、較低的投入成本和持續強勁的需求所推動的。

We expect to continue the strong levels of operating performance as we move through 2024.

我們預計 2024 年將持續維持強勁的經營業績水準。

With that I'll turn the call over to Sherri to cover our financial results.

接下來，我會將電話轉給雪莉，介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's cover our financial performance in the first quarter.

讓我們來介紹一下我們第一季的財務表現。

By turning to slide 6, the summary income statement shows our first quarter results for 2024 and 2023.

翻到投影片 6，損益表摘要顯示了我們 2024 年和 2023 年第一季的業績。

In the quarter, we earned net income of $17 million, net income per diluted share of $1.02 and adjusted net income per diluted share of $1.43, as Arson noted for the quarter was negatively impacted by the January weather event at our Idaho paperboard facility.

本季度，我們的淨利潤為1700 萬美元，攤薄後每股淨利潤為1.02 美元，調整後每股攤薄淨利潤為1.43 美元，正如Arson 指出的那樣，該季度受到我們愛達荷州紙板工廠1月份天氣事件的負面影響。

Despite that headwind, our consolidated results came in at the higher end of our expectations for the quarter, and we believe we are well positioned for a strong 2024.

儘管存在這些不利因素，我們的綜合業績仍超出了我們對本季預期的較高水平，我們相信我們已做好充分準備，迎接 2024 年的強勁增長。

Our corresponding segment results can be seen on Slide 7.

我們對應的分段結果可以在投影片 7 中看到。

As noted, our consolidated adjusted EBITDA came in at the higher end of our guidance range, but slightly below last year and the previous quarter.

如前所述，我們的綜合調整後 EBITDA 處於指導範圍的高端，但略低於去年和上一季。

Adjusted EBITDA margins remained stable at around 12%.

調整後 EBITDA 利潤率穩定在 12% 左右。

As we turn to slide 8, we can see the year-over-year comparison of adjusted EBITDA for our paperboard business, the segment produced $34 million of adjusted EBITDA at a margin of 14% on a year-over-year basis.

當我們翻到幻燈片 8 時，我們可以看到紙板業務調整後 EBITDA 的同比比較，該部門產生了 3400 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，同比利潤率為 14%。

Lower sales prices negatively impacted results, which was partially offset by lower input costs.

銷售價格下降對業績產生了負面影響，但投入成本下降部分抵消了這種影響。

The impact of volume between periods was heavily influenced by the downtime caused by the severe weather event in January.

期間間成交量的影響很大程度上受到一月份惡劣天氣事件造成的停機影響。

Slide 13 in the appendix shows a sequential comparison of the first quarter of this year to the fourth quarter of last year.

附錄中的幻燈片 13 顯示了今年第一季與去年第四季的連續比較。

It reflects a negative price and mix impact, relatively stable volumes and lower costs.

它反映了價格和組合的負面影響、相對穩定的銷售量和較低的成本。

On Slide 9, we bridge the year-over-year comparison of adjusted EBITDA for our tissue business, we saw some price erosion due to index pricing mechanisms tied to pull in the first quarter of 2024 versus 2023.

在投影片 9 中，我們對衛生紙業務調整後 EBITDA 的同比比較進行了比較，我們發現由於 2024 年第一季與 2023 年第一季拉動相關的指數定價機制導致價格出現一些侵蝕。

We continue to benefit from lower input cost as well as high levels of capacity utilization, but we expect higher pulp prices to negatively impact us in upcoming quarters.

我們繼續受益於較低的投入成本以及高水準的產能利用率，但我們預期紙漿價格上漲將在未來幾季對我們產生負面影響。

Even with higher pulp prices, we expect to maintain much of the margin improvement that we achieved in 2023.

即使紙漿價格上漲，我們預計仍能維持 2023 年實現的利潤率改善。

Turning to our capital structure on slide 10, our balance sheet continued to strengthen, driven by strong profitability and cash efficiency.

轉向投影片 10 中我們的資本結構，在強勁的獲利能力和現金效率的推動下，我們的資產負債表持續增強。

Our liquidity currently stands at $312 million in the quarter.

目前本季我們的流動性為 3.12 億美元。

We generated $41 million of free cash flow and reduced our net debt by an additional $33 million.

我們產生了 4,100 萬美元的自由現金流，並額外減少了 3,300 萬美元的淨債務。

We also repurchased about $1 million in stock to offset dilution of our employee stock plans with approximately $6 million left under our authorization.

我們還回購了約 100 萬美元的股票，以抵消我們的員工股票計劃的稀釋，我們的授權還剩約 600 萬美元。

Lastly, please turn to our outlook for the second quarter on Slide 11.

最後，請看投影片 11 對第二季的展望。

As Arthur mentioned, we are starting to see recovery in our paperboard demand and continue to see strong demand in tissue.

正如阿瑟所提到的，我們開始看到紙板需求的復甦，並繼續看到衛生紙的強勁需求。

Paperboard pricing will be impacted by the decrease as reported by RISI.

紙板價格將受到 RISI 報告的下降的影響。

As a reminder, 35% to 40% of our paperboard volume is tied to movement in the receipt price index.

提醒一下，我們 35% 到 40% 的紙板銷量與收據價格指數的變動有關。

We are also expecting some headwinds from higher pulp prices impacting our tissue business.

我們也預期紙漿價格上漲會帶來一些阻力，影響我們的生活用紙業務。

We are projecting an additional $35 million to $40 million in higher planned maintenance expenses in the quarter, primarily driven by the planned major maintenance outage at our Lewiston facility, as well as additional maintenance at other sites we also expect to realize some insurance recovery related to the severe weather event from Q1.

我們預計本季的計劃維護費用將增加 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元，這主要是由於劉易斯頓工廠計劃的重大維護中斷以及其他站點的額外維護，我們還預計將實現一些與以下相關的保險賠償：第一季的惡劣天氣事件。

With all those variables, we expect adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter in a range of $23 million to $33 million for the full year.

考慮到所有這些變量，我們預計第二季全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 2,300 萬美元至 3,300 萬美元之間。

Our key operational assumptions remain largely the same.

我們的關鍵營運假設基本上保持不變。

We expect improvements in paperboard volumes, stability and tissue, lower input costs with offsets in higher major maintenance expenses and lower pricing.

我們預計紙板產量、穩定性和衛生紙會有所改善，投入成本會降低，並抵消主要維護費用的增加和定價的降低。

Our cash flow assumptions also largely remain the same with $90 million to $100 million of capital expense, driven by major repair and maintenance projects at our paperboard facilities.

我們的現金流假設也基本上保持不變，資本支出為 9,000 萬至 1 億美元，這是由我們紙板工廠的主要維修和維護項目推動的。

The detailed list of these assumptions can be found on page 11 of our supplemental.

這些假設的詳細清單可以在我們的補充資料的第 11 頁找到。

Please note that these assumptions do not include any impact from the planned Augusta acquisition.

請注意，這些假設不包括計劃收購奧古斯塔的任何影響。

As we have previously stated, the book of business that we are acquiring from Graphic Packaging delivered approximately $100 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2023, we expect that run rate to be impacted by lower pricing carrying into 2024, with offsets in increasing volumes and improved operating rates at the facility.

正如我們之前所說，我們從Graphic Packaging 收購的業務在2023 年實現了約1 億美元的調整後EBITDA，我們預計運行率將受到2024 年較低定價的影響，但銷售增加和營運改善將抵消這一影響。

We expect to provide additional commentary about the financial performance of Augusta and upfront coming quarters as we begin to operate the site as part of the Clearwater Paper network.

當我們開始作為 Clearwater Paper 網路的一部分來經營網站時，我們預計將提供有關奧古斯塔和未來幾個季度的財務表現的更多評論。

Let me now turn the call back over to RC Century.

現在讓我將電話轉回 RC Century。

I'm pleased with our first quarter performance and remain optimistic about our prospects for the full year as we see signs of recovery in paperboard market conditions and continued strength in tissue from also looking forward to completing the Augusta acquisition and welcoming the Augusta team to Clearwater Paper.

我對我們第一季的業績感到滿意，並對我們全年的前景保持樂觀，因為我們看到紙板市場狀況復甦的跡象，以及生活用紙持續走強的跡象，我們也期待完成對奧古斯塔的收購，並歡迎奧古斯塔團隊來到克利爾沃特紙。

As I mentioned on our last call, our long-term objective is to build a scaled and diversified paperboard business that meets the needs of our converter customers.

正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們的長期目標是建立規模化、多元化的紙板業務，以滿足加工商客戶的需求。

The Augusta acquisition is a big strategic step for Clearwater Paper, and we intend to continue to opportunistically look at other people's assets as we execute our strategy.

對奧古斯塔的收購是 Clearwater Paper 的一個重大策略步驟，我們打算在執行我們的策略時繼續機會主義地關注其他人的資產。

We will also continue to evaluate the feasibility of investing in our existing assets to broaden our product offering.

我們也將繼續評估投資現有資產以擴大我們的產品範圍的可行性。

While we look at additional opportunities in the long run, our near term focus is on capturing value from the guest acquisition, generating cash flows and deleveraging our balance sheet.

雖然我們著眼於長期的其他機會，但我們近期的重點是從客源獲取中獲取價值、產生現金流和去槓桿化我們的資產負債表。

We have a proven track record of deleveraging and expect to be back to our cross-cycle target of 2.5 times by the end of 2026.

我們在去槓桿方面擁有良好的記錄，預計到 2026 年底將回到 2.5 倍的跨週期目標。

Let me wrap by thanking our people for a strong start to 2024.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工為 2024 年帶來了良好的開端。

We delivered a strong quarter even as we manage through some very difficult operating conditions caused by the weather event at our Lewiston facility during the quarter.

儘管我們在本季劉易斯頓工廠的天氣事件造成的一些非常困難的營運條件下進行了管理，但我們仍實現了強勁的季度業績。

And as always, I would also like to thank our customers and shareholders for their continued support and for placing their trust in us.

像往常一樣，我還要感謝我們的客戶和股東的持續支持和對我們的信任。

With that we will end our prepared remarks and take your questions.

至此，我們將結束準備好的發言並回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions) If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue.

（操作員說明）如果您想提問，請按電話鍵盤上的星號一舉手並加入隊列。

To withdraw your question, simply press star one again, if you are called upon to ask your question and are listening via loud speaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not unmute when asking your question.

要撤回您的問題，只需再次按星號一，如果您被要求提問並且正在透過裝置上的揚聲器收聽，請拿起您的聽筒並確保您的手機在提問時沒有取消靜音。

Your first question comes from Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Market.

你的第一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Matthew McKellar。

Very good afternoon.

午安.

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

To start some just asking a couple of questions around your guidance I know you spoke that supports the idea that you'd provide more information in coming quarters, but can you give us a sense of how we should expect that maintenance CapEx at Augusta sort of trends on a run rate basis?

首先，就您的指導提出幾個問題，我知道您的發言支持您將在未來幾季提供更多資訊的想法，但是您能否讓我們了解我們應該如何預期奧古斯塔的維護資本支出以運轉率為基礎的趨勢？

And then any degree you could quantify the partial insurance recovery for at the event at Lewiston?

那麼您可以在任何程度上量化劉易斯頓活動的部分保險賠償嗎？

That would also be helpful.

這也會有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

But let me let me start with the with the Augusta question and then Sherry Sherry will take the insurance question.

但讓我從奧古斯塔問題開始，然後雪莉雪莉將回答保險問題。

So at this point, at this point, we are looking forward to closing here very shortly.

所以在這一點上，在這一點上，我們期待很快地在這裡結束。

And once once we get in there, we'll have a much better idea of how this fits into Clearwater and the financials.

一旦我們進入那裡，我們就會更好地了解它如何適應克利爾沃特和財務狀況。

So it's a little premature for us to be providing any kind of guidance for balance of the year around adjusted.

因此，我們現在就調整後的年度餘額提供任何形式的指導還為時過早。

But I think we'll we'll provide more information in upcoming quarters, Sherry and take the insurance question?

但我想我們會在接下來的幾個季度提供更多信息，雪莉，並回答保險問題？

Sure, though not at the $15 million to $17 million.

當然可以，儘管不是 1500 萬到 1700 萬美元。

That was the full impact that we saw in Q1.

這就是我們在第一季看到的全部影響。

And that is the full amount of the claim.

這就是索賠的全額。

We do have a $4 million deductible, and we expect to see some partial recovery in the second quarter.

我們確實有 400 萬美元的免賠額，我們預計第二季會出現部分復甦。

So that process is still ongoing with the insurance carrier, but we do expect to see some funds flow within the second quarter.

因此，保險公司仍在繼續這一過程，但我們確實預計第二季度將看到一些資金流動。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for that.

感謝那。

And the shifting over next to tissue pricing, it looks like prices slipped a bit quarter over quarter.

隨著衛生紙定價的轉變，價格似乎逐季下滑。

Can you just clarify at all whether that was a mix issue or if you saw some compression on a like-for-like basis?

您能否澄清一下這是否是混合問題，或者您是否看到了類似的壓縮？

And then how are you expecting pricing to trend?

那麼您預期定價趨勢如何？

I guess as we go forward here, given that our operating rates seem pretty solid and that we have rising pulp prices, which could maybe support take some price as well.

我想，當我們繼續前進時，考慮到我們的開工率似乎相當穩定，而且紙漿價格不斷上漲，這也可能支撐一些價格。

Yes.

是的。

So listen, we'll avoid commenting on future on future pricing.

所以聽著，我們將避免對未來的定價發表評論。

But in terms of just sequential, the slight slight drop that we saw, it's really largely around that about a quarter of our volume.

但就連續而言，我們看到的輕微下降，實際上很大程度上約為我們銷量的四分之一左右。

Pam has a, um, is under contract.

帕姆有一個，嗯，正在簽約。

That's that's tied to a partially tied to Rishi pulp index.

這與 Rishi 紙漿指數部分相關。

And I know pulp prices are going up, but just the way it's measured at full prices were coming down through through most of last year.

我知道紙漿價格正在上漲，但去年大部分時間裡，以全價衡量的紙漿價格一直在下降。

So I think the bulk of that of that price decrease that we're seeing is related is related to that.

因此，我認為我們看到的價格下降大部分與此有關。

I think the rest can be chalked up to some to some mixed mix issues.

我認為其餘的可以歸結為一些混合問題。

I think tissue market conditions remain remain strong.

我認為衛生紙市場狀況依然強勁。

Utilization rates are high.

使用率高。

We're operating and really, really well.

我們運作得非常非常好。

And I think you saw that in our in our quarterly EBITDA results.

我想您在我們的季度 EBITDA 業績中看到了這一點。

Great.

偉大的。

That makes sense.

這就說得通了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And maybe sticking with pulp prices, can you just remind us, is it still fair to think of there as being about a three month lag in terms of how that flows through to your results?

也許堅持紙漿價格，您能否提醒我們，考慮到您的結果存在大約三個月的滯後是否仍然公平？

And then given that rising trend, is it still fair to think that you're expecting leverage to peak out at 3.5 to 4 times following the Augusta acquisition?

然後考慮到這種上升趨勢，您認為收購奧古斯塔後槓桿率將達到 3.5 至 4 倍的峰值是否仍然公平？

Yes, I think 90 days is three months is a good rule of thumb kind of give or it could give or take just the way pulp moves through our manufacturing process and inventory.

是的，我認為 90 天等於三個月是一個很好的經驗法則，或者它可以按照紙漿在我們的製造過程和庫存中移動的方式進行調整。

And so if you look at if you look at pulp pulp prices, they have increased sequentially quarter over quarter.

因此，如果你看看紙漿價格，你會發現它們逐季上漲。

I mean, they just I think just now if you just look at the indices, have have some are right to where they were on average in 2023.

我的意思是，我認為，如果你看看指數，你會發現一些指數與 2023 年的平均值是正確的。

So there's there's some interesting timing trends as pulp prices were falling through 2023.

因此，隨著 2023 年紙漿價格的下跌，出現了一些有趣的時間趨勢。

I think they hit their bottom somewhere in that two, three time range, and then they started slowly creeping back up and and obviously the greater impact here in the first and the first quarter of pulp.

我認為他們在兩到三個時間範圍內的某個地方觸底，然後他們開始慢慢回升，顯然在紙漿的第一和第一季產生了更大的影響。

If you look at softwood versus hardwood?

如果你看看軟木和硬木？

You know this, Matthew, there have been a number of closures and softwood in North America.

你知道這一點，馬修，北美已經有許多關閉和軟木的情況。

I think that's tightening up capacity.

我認為這正在收緊能力。

I think in the long run.

我認為從長遠來看。

If you look at hardwood and you look at the forecasts that are and that are out there beyond the next couple of quarters, they have they indicate a lower hardwood especially eucalyptus pulp prices as capacity comes online and globally.

如果你看看硬木，看看對未來幾季的預測，你會發現，隨著產能上線和全球範圍內，硬木尤其是桉樹漿的價格將會下降。

And then on your second piece, Matt, that the expectation is still that there would be at peak leverage between that 3.5 to 4 times, that is still correct.

然後，關於你的第二篇文章，馬特，預期槓桿率仍然會達到峰值 3.5 到 4 倍，這仍然是正確的。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And maybe one on your cost of fiber more generally, we've seen a few softwood lumber mill closures in Montana over the past few months here, do you expect any impact to your cost of residuals for Lewiston?

也許更廣泛地說，關於纖維成本，過去幾個月我們看到蒙大拿州有幾家軟木材工廠關閉，您預計對劉易斯頓的剩餘成本有什麼影響嗎？

I would expect that's probably outside your procurement radius, but I just wanted to confirm.

我預計這可能超出了您的採購範圍，但我只是想確認一下。

You know, I don't have those numbers at the tip of my fingers, but generally speaking, I think you're right, so that in the Northwest in the Northwest it's largely a residual market where higher operating rates at the lumber mills are beneficial to us in the Southeast.

你知道，我手邊沒有這些數字，但總的來說，我認為你是對的，所以在西北地區，很大程度上是一個剩餘市場，木材廠的開工率較高。

It's a it's a whole log.

這是一個完整的日誌。

It's a whole log market.

這是一個完整的原木市場。

So I don't have specific information around some of the some of the impact of some of the closures that we've seen.

因此，我沒有關於我們所看到的一些關閉的一些影響的具體信息。

But just overall, I think we expect in total across the Company.

但總的來說，我認為我們對整個公司的整體期望是這樣的。

We expect wood to be a net positive this year versus versus last year, especially in the first half of this year versus the first half of last year.

我們預計今年木材與去年相比將呈現淨正值，特別是今年上半年與去年上半年相比。

So that's across Arkansas and Idaho, we expect I forgot to be a good guy.

因此，在阿肯色州和愛達荷州，我們希望我忘記成為一個好人。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And maybe just focusing in on the paperboard market a little bit.

也許只是稍微關注紙板市場。

Sounds like that market is firming up and you're seeing better trends there.

聽起來這個市場正在變得堅挺，你會看到更好的趨勢。

And can you talk about what you may be seeing to start Q2 and then maybe call it any pockets of strength and weakness by end market that you might be seeing.

您能否談談您在第二季開始時可能會看到的情況，然後將其稱為您可能會看到的終端市場的優勢和劣勢。

And no specific comments on end markets, I think we're seeing a nice a nice recovery happening.

對於終端市場沒有具體評論，我認為我們正在看到良好的復甦正在發生。

And you saw in the AF&PA data utilization rates were up, shipments shipments were up in Q2 in Q1 versus versus Q4.

您可以在 AF&PA 數據中看到，利用率有所上升，第一季的出貨量與第四季相比有所上升。

So we're seeing we're seeing those same trends and customers have to have positive outlooks here for the balance of 2024.

因此，我們看到了同樣的趨勢，客戶必須對 2024 年的剩餘時間抱持正面的前景。

We're expecting at this point from where we sit to be running for the balance of the year.

從目前的情況來看，我們預計今年剩下的時間都會繼續運作。

We do have a major outage, which will have some impact on our production.

我們確實發生了一次大停電，這會對我們的生產產生一些影響。

But outside of that, our expectation is to run is to run full for this year for the remainder for the remainder of the year.

但除此之外，我們的期望是在今年剩餘時間裡滿載運轉。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

And maybe last one for me and please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think your collective bargaining agreement at Cypress Bend for hourly employees would expire in July.

也許是我的最後一個，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我認為你們在 Cypress Bend 的小時工集體談判協議將於 7 月到期。

Can you talk about that events and some of the discussions you've been having so far and maybe what we should expect just given the sort of general inflationary environment for labor.

您能否談談這些事件以及您迄今為止進行的一些討論，以及考慮到勞動力的整體通膨環境，我們應該期待什麼。

I think I'll stay away from commenting on expectations that in generally speaking, we have we had very good our relationship with our unions, and I think we're looking forward to good constructive, constructive dialogue as we have had historically in Arkansas.

我想我不會評論期望，一般來說，我們與工會有著非常好的關係，我認為我們期待著良好的建設性對話，就像我們在阿肯色州歷史上進行的那樣。

Great.

偉大的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

That's all for me.

這就是我的全部。

I'll turn it back.

我會把它轉回來。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Seeing no further questions at this time.

目前看不到進一步的問題。

This will conclude today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you all for your participation.

感謝大家的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。