(CLW) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Clearwater Paper Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 earnings conference call.

女士們先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加 Clearwater Paper 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I will now hand today's call over to Kyle Nagarkar, Investor Relations.

現在，我將把今天的電話會議交給投資者關係部的凱爾·納加卡 (Kyle Nagarkar)。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Clearwater Paper's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 earnings conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加 Clearwater Paper 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Joining me on the call today are Arsen Kitch, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sherri Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Arsen Kitch 和資深副總裁兼財務長 Sherri Baker。

Financial results for the fourth quarter 2023 were released shortly after yesterday's market close.

昨天收盤後不久發布了 2023 年第四季的財務業績。

Along with the filing of our 10-K.

隨著我們 10-K 的提交。

You will find a presentation of supplemental information, including a slide providing the company's current outlook posted on the Investor Relations page of our website at clearwaterpaper.com.

您將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面（clearwaterpaper.com）上找到補充資訊的演示，包括提供公司當前前景的幻燈片。

Additionally, we will be providing certain non-GAAP information in this afternoon's discussion.

此外，我們將在今天下午的討論中提供某些非公認會計準則資訊。

A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release and in the supplemental information provided on our website.

非公認會計原則資訊與可比較公認會計原則資訊的調節包含在新聞稿和我們網站上提供的補充資訊中。

Please note slide 2, of our supplemental information covering forward-looking statements.

請注意投影片 2，其中包含我們涉及前瞻性陳述的補充資訊。

Rather than rereading this slide, we are going to incorporated by reference into our prepared remarks.

我們將透過引用將其納入我們準備好的評論中，而不是重新閱讀這張投影片。

With that, let me turn the call over to Arsen.

現在，讓我把電話轉給阿爾森。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today.

下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

We will begin today's call with a strategic update and the announcement of our pending acquisition of the Augusta, Georgia paperboard manufacturing facility from Graphic Packaging.

我們將在今天的電話會議開始時介紹策略性更新，並宣布我們即將收購 Graphic Packaging 位於喬治亞州奧古斯塔的紙板製造工廠。

On our last call, I mentioned that we've made significant progress over the past few years, improving our operations and becoming a more competitive player in both of our businesses.

在上次電話會議上，我提到我們在過去幾年中取得了重大進展，改善了我們的營運並成為我們兩項業務中更具競爭力的參與者。

I also mentioned that we believe that scale is needed to be able to invest and grow, especially given the capital intensive nature of our industry.

我還提到，我們認為投資和成長需要規模，特別是考慮到我們行業的資本密集性質。

In paperboard, we laid out a goal of building a scaled, high-performing and diversified paperboard business that is well matched to the needs of paperboard converters in North America.

在紙板方面，我們制定了建立規模化、高性能、多元化的紙板業務的目標，該業務非常適合北美紙板加工商的需求。

The Augusta acquisition is an outstanding strategic fit.

收購奧古斯塔是一次出色的策略契合。

It will add significant scale and growth capacity to our paperboard business and strengthen our position as a premier independent supplier of paperboard products to North American converters.

它將顯著增加我們的紙板業務規模和成長能力，並鞏固我們作為北美加工商紙板產品主要獨立供應商的地位。

We have also stated that we believe in the overall attractiveness of the North American paperboard market.

我們也表示，我們相信北美紙板市場的整體吸引力。

It is a robust 10 million ton market that is growing and well positioned to capitalize on sustainable consumer packaging trends while demand softened in 2023 and utilization rates fell.

這是一個強勁的 1000 萬噸市場，正在不斷增長，並且在 2023 年需求疲軟和利用率下降的情況下，能夠充分利用永續消費包裝趨勢。

This is a cyclical industry, and we expect demand to start recovering in the second half of this year and into 2025.

這是一個週期性產業，我們預計需求將在今年下半年至 2025 年開始復甦。

Let me provide you with some additional details regarding the acquisition and synergies.

讓我向您提供有關收購和協同效應的一些其他詳細資訊。

The Augusta site is a well-invested SBS facilities with around 600,000 tons of paperboard capacity and about 700 talented employees with volume upside and cost synergies.

奧古斯塔工廠是一座投資充足的 SBS 工廠，擁有約 60 萬噸紙板產能和約 700 名優秀員工，具有產量上升和成本協同效應。

We believe that Augusta will contribute $140 million to $150 million of adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026.

我們相信，到 2026 年底，奧古斯塔將貢獻 1.4 億至 1.5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

If realized, we're expecting a post-synergy multiple to approach 4.5 times the largest component underlying our expected $40 million to $50 million of annual synergies as volume.

如果實現，我們預期協同後倍數將接近我們預期的 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元年度協同效應最大組成部分的 4.5 倍。

We expect the facility to be about 70% to 80% utilized in 2024.

我們預計到 2024 年該設施的使用率將達到 70% 至 80% 左右。

And assuming a 95% long-term utilization rate, we believe that we have up to 150,000 tons of volume upside.

假設長期利用率為95%，我們認為我們還有高達15萬噸的增量空間。

There are additional cost synergies that we expect to target, including optimizing production across our network, procurement savings and transportation efficiencies.

我們希望實現額外的成本協同效應，包括優化整個網路的生產、節省採購和提高運輸效率。

The acquisition is enabled by our strong balance sheet flexibility resulting from significant deleveraging that we began in 2020.

此次收購得益於我們自 2020 年開始的大幅去槓桿化所帶來的強大資產負債表彈性。

At the end of 2023, our leverage ratio was around 1.5 times, enabling us to pursue this opportunity.

截至 2023 年底，我們的槓桿率約為 1.5 倍，使我們能夠抓住這個機會。

After we complete the acquisition, we expect our leverage ratio to peak between 3.5 and 4 times in the coming quarters.

完成收購後，我們預計未來幾季的槓桿率將達到 3.5 至 4 倍。

Our top priority will be deleveraging the business toward our normalized goal of 2.5 times through the cycle, and we're confident in our ability to do so given our track record of cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation.

我們的首要任務是對業務進行去槓桿化，以實現整個週期 2.5 倍的正常目標，鑑於我們在現金流產生和嚴格資本配置方面的記錄，我們對實現這一目標充滿信心。

On the tissue side, we have a well-run business with an outstanding team that has a strong track record of performance improvement.

在衛生紙方面，我們擁有運作良好的業務和優秀的團隊，在績效改善方面擁有良好的記錄。

The business generated more than $1 billion in sales and $150 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2023.

2023 年，該業務的銷售額超過 10 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.5 億美元。

Just like in paperboard, our tissue business needs scale to invest and grow with our customers.

就像紙板一樣，我們的生活用紙業務需要規模化才能投資並與客戶一起成長。

Given the consolidated customer landscape and the fragmented supplier base, we continue to believe that consolidation is needed to build scaled tissue manufacturers that can make sizable long-term investments in capacity to keep up with the growth of these large retailers.

鑑於整合的客戶格局和分散的供應商基礎，我們仍然認為，需要進行整合來建立規模化的衛生紙製造商，以便能夠對產能進行大量長期投資，以跟上這些大型零售商的成長。

Given that industry landscape and our investment in paperboard growth, we will evaluate strategic options for our tissue business.

鑑於產業格局和我們對紙板成長的投資，我們將評估我們的生活用紙業務的策略選擇。

Regardless of the direction that we take, we will remain focused on what's best for our company overall, including our shareholders, customers and our people.

無論我們採取什麼方向，我們都將繼續專注於對我們公司整體（包括我們的股東、客戶和員工）最有利的事情。

We expect and look forward to completing the Augusta acquisition in the second quarter of this year.

我們預計並期待在今年第二季完成對奧古斯塔的收購。

The completion of the transaction and timing are subject to regulatory approvals.

交易的完成和時間表尚待監管部門批准。

We will update you on our progress in the coming months.

我們將在未來幾個月向您通報我們的最新進展。

Let's shift our focus to our Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 results.

讓我們將注意力轉向 2023 年第四季和全年業績。

Please turn to slide 6.

請翻到幻燈片 6。

As you saw in our press release, we had a great year, driven by strong operational execution, lower input costs and continued strength in our tissue business.

正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，在強大的營運執行力、較低的投入成本和衛生紙業務持續強勁的推動下，我們度過了美好的一年。

We maintain our focus on cash flow generation and reduced our net debt by almost $90 million during 2023.

我們繼續關注現金流生成，並在 2023 年將淨債務減少了近 9,000 萬美元。

Slide 6, provides a summary of our consolidated results.

投影片 6 總結了我們的綜合結果。

We reported net sales of $513 million and adjusted EBITDA of $63 million in the quarter, which is within our range and significantly higher than the fourth quarter of last year when we completed our major maintenance at our Lewiston paperboard mill.

我們報告本季淨銷售額為 5.13 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 6300 萬美元，這在我們的範圍內，並且顯著高於去年第四季度我們完成劉易斯頓紙板廠主要維護時的情況。

Our tissue business drove the improvement by more than doubling its adjusted EBITDA from $18 million in the fourth quarter of last year to $46 million this year.

我們的衛生紙業務推動了這一改善，調整後的 EBITDA 從去年第四季的 1,800 萬美元增至今年的 4,600 萬美元，成長了一倍多。

Our paperboard business delivered $37 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter with continued soft demand and a natural gas disruption to significantly curtailed operations at our Lewiston facility.

由於需求持續疲軟以及天然氣供應中斷導致劉易斯頓工廠的營運大幅縮減，我們的紙板業務在第四季度實現了 3,700 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Let me share a few highlights with you.

讓我與您分享一些亮點。

Prices increase in our tissue business as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and decreased in paperboard, which reflects market trends as reported by RISI.

與 2022 年第四季相比，我們的生活用紙業務價格有所上漲，而紙板業務的價格則有所下降，這反映了 RISI 報告的市場趨勢。

Lower input costs benefited both of our businesses as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, particularly in fiber, energy and freight.

與 2022 年第四季相比，投入成本的降低使我們的兩家業務受益，特別是在纖維、能源和貨運方面。

We had good operational performance across both businesses as we balance supply and demand to manage our inventories.

透過平衡供需來管理庫存，我們的兩項業務都取得了良好的營運績效。

Tissue demand continued to be strong, while paperboard remained soft, we reduced net debt by $32 million in the quarter for a total of almost $450 million since 2020.

由於衛生紙需求持續強勁，而紙板仍然疲軟，我們在本季減少了 3,200 萬美元的淨債務，自 2020 年以來債務總額接近 4.5 億美元。

We repurchased $3 million of shares during the quarter for a total of $23 million since 2022 with $7 million remaining on our buyback authorization.

我們在本季回購了 300 萬美元的股票，自 2022 年以來總計回購了 2,300 萬美元，其中回購授權剩餘 700 萬美元。

With that overview, let me turn to each of our segments and provide some additional details.

有了這個概述，讓我轉向我們的每個部分並提供一些額外的細節。

Let's begin with our paperboard business on slide 8, of our supplemental materials.

讓我們從幻燈片 8（補充資料）中的紙板業務開始。

Let's start by focusing on broader industry trends.

讓我們先關注更廣泛的行業趨勢。

Based on AF&PA data, shipments were down about 16% full year 2023 versus 2022 and down 15% in the fourth quarter.

根據 AF&PA 數據，2023 年全年出貨量較 2022 年下降約 16%，第四季下降 15%。

Operating rates dipped to under 80% in the fourth quarter and were at about 84% for the year.

第四季的營運率降至 80% 以下，全年約為 84%。

Reflecting these trends, recent reported price decreases of $80 per ton in the second half of last year and another $40 per ton in February of this year.

最近報道的價格在去年下半年每噸下跌了 80 美元，在今年 2 月又下跌了 40 美元，這反映了這些趨勢。

While our demand remained soft, we did outperform industry averages with shipments down 9% for the year and flat in Q4 of 2023 versus Q4 of 2022.

儘管我們的需求依然疲軟，但我們的表現確實優於行業平均水平，全年出貨量下降了 9%，2023 年第四季的出貨量與 2022 年第四季持平。

We took approximately 15% downtime on our paper machines during the quarter to balance supply and demand.

本季我們的造紙機停機了大約 15%，以平衡供需。

In addition, we also experienced unplanned downtime during the quarter due to a disruption in natural gas supplies to our Lewiston facility in November.

此外，由於 11 月劉易斯頓工廠的天然氣供應中斷，我們在本季也經歷了計劃外停機。

That event negatively impacted us by approximately $1 million.

這事件對我們造成了約 100 萬美元的負面影響。

As I mentioned earlier in my remarks, we remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for paperboard, we're forecasting a gradual sequential improvement in demand starting in the first quarter of this year.

正如我之前在演講中提到的，我們對紙板的長期前景保持樂觀，我們預測從今年第一季開始需求將逐步環比改善。

We expect a more meaningful recovery in the second half of 2024 and next year.

我們預計 2024 年下半年和明年將出現更有意義的復甦。

Please turn to slide 9, for additional comments on tissue.

請參閱投影片 9，以了解有關組織的更多評論。

Let's start with some broader industry trends.

讓我們從一些更廣泛的行業趨勢開始。

Private brand market share remained and at a nearly all-time high of 36% based on Circana panel data.

根據 Circana 面板數據，自有品牌的市佔率仍保持在 36% 的歷史最高水準。

Consumers are continuing to shift to private brands due to economic uncertainty and inflation.

由於經濟不確定性和通貨膨脹，消費者繼續轉向自有品牌。

Utilization rates were at about 94% in Q4 as reported by RISI, which we believe represents a healthy supply and demand balance.

根據 RISI 的報告，第四季的使用率約為 94%，我們認為這代表了健康的供需平衡。

As we've discussed previously, more than 180,000 tons of capacity were removed between 2021 and 2023, while more than 350,000 tons of capacity have been announced to be added between 2024 and 2026.

正如我們先前所討論的，2021年至2023年期間將取消超過18萬噸產能，而2024年至2026年期間宣布將新增超過35萬噸產能。

All this data supports our view that the tissue industry conditions remain stable.

所有這些數據都支持我們的觀點，即衛生紙產業狀況保持穩定。

Let's turn to our performance in the quarter.

讓我們看看本季的業績。

Our business remained very strong, with revenue growing by 3% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA more than doubling.

我們的業務仍然非常強勁，營收年增 3%，調整後 EBITDA 成長了一倍以上。

Our adjusted EBITDA margin was nearly 17%, driven by higher pricing, lower input costs and strong operational execution by our team.

由於更高的定價、更低的投入成本以及我們團隊強大的營運執行力，我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率接近 17%。

We remain optimistic that we can retain much of that margin improvement as we head into 2024.

我們仍然樂觀地認為，進入 2024 年，我們可以保持大部分利潤率的提高。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Sherri to cover our financial results.

這樣，我會將電話轉給雪莉，介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Arsen.

謝謝你，阿爾森。

Let's cover our financial performance in the fourth quarter by turning to slide 10.

讓我們轉向投影片 10 來介紹我們第四季的財務表現。

The consolidated summary income statement shows results for the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2022.

合併總損益表顯示了 2023 年和 2022 年第四季的業績。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, we reported net income of $17.6 million, net income per diluted share of $1.04 and adjusted net income per diluted share of $1.35. For the full year, we reported net income of $107.7 million.

2023 年第四季度，我們報告淨利潤為 1760 萬美元，稀釋每股淨利潤為 1.04 美元，調整後每股稀釋淨利潤為 1.35 美元。我們報告全年淨利潤為 1.077 億美元。

Net income per diluted income per share of $6.30 and adjusted net income of $6.69 per share.

稀釋後每股淨利為 6.30 美元，調整後每股淨利為 6.69 美元。

The corresponding segment results are on slide 11.

對應的分段結果位於投影片 11 上。

The business performed very well on a consolidated basis with lower input costs and strong operating performance, driving a healthy improvement in profitability.

業務綜合表現良好，投入成本較低，經營業績強勁，帶動獲利能力健康提升。

Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 12.3% in the quarter as compared to 5.3% in the fourth quarter of last year or about 10% if we exclude the impact of the major outage.

本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率升至 12.3%，而去年第四季為 5.3%，若排除重大停電的影響，則約為 10%。

Slide 12, is a year-over-year comparison of adjusted EBITDA for our paperboard business.

投影片 12 是我們紙板業務調整後 EBITDA 的年比比較。

The business delivered $37 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter with a 15% margin.

該業務本季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,700 萬美元，利潤率為 15%。

On a year-over-year basis, lower sales price and mix negatively impacted results, which was more than offset by lower input costs.

與去年同期相比，較低的銷售價格和產品組合對業績產生了負面影響，但投入成本的降低足以抵消這種影響。

The impact of volume between periods was negligible as we took market related downtime in the fourth quarter of 2023 and had our planned major outage in Lewiston in the fourth quarter of 2022.

由於我們在 2023 年第四季度進行了與市場相關的停機，併計劃於 2022 年第四季度在劉易斯頓進行了重大停機，因此各時段之間的交易量影響可以忽略不計。

Slide 20, in the appendix shows a sequential comparison of the fourth quarter to the third quarter of this year.

附錄中的幻燈片 20 顯示了今年第四季與第三季的連續比較。

It reflects a lower sales price and mix, lower volumes and higher costs.

它反映了較低的銷售價格和產品組合、較低的產量和較高的成本。

Slide 13, is a full year comparison of adjusted EBITDA for our paperboard business.

投影片 13 是我們紙板業務調整後 EBITDA 的全年比較。

The business delivered $206 million of adjusted EBITDA for the year with a 19% margin on a full year basis.

該業務全年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.06 億美元，全年利潤率為 19%。

Higher pricing on paperboard was offset by unfavorable mix and reduced operating schedules to match supply and demand.

紙板的較高價格被不利的組合和減少的營運計劃所抵消，以適應供需。

These were partially offset by favorable cost inputs, primarily due to freight and energy.

這些被有利的成本投入（主要是貨運和能源）所部分抵銷。

Slide 14, as a year-over-year comparison of adjusted EBITDA for our tissue business.

投影片 14，我們的衛生紙業務調整後 EBITDA 的年比比較。

As Arsen discussed, we are benefiting from previously announced price increases and lower input costs.

正如阿森所討論的，我們受益於先前宣布的價格上漲和投入成本降低。

The business delivered $46 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter with a 17% margin.

該業務本季調整後 EBITDA 為 4,600 萬美元，利潤率為 17%。

As noted on this slide, in the fourth quarter, we saw the benefit from lower pulp prices as those flowed through to our income statement.

正如這張投影片所指出的，在第四季度，我們看到了紙漿價格下降的好處，因為這些價格已計入我們的損益表。

Slide 15, is a full year comparison of adjusted EBITDA for our tissue business, the business delivered $151 million of adjusted EBITDA for the year with a 15% margin, which is double that of the prior year.

投影片 15 是我們衛生紙業務調整後 EBITDA 的全年比較，該業務當年的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.51 億美元，利潤率為 15%，是前一年的兩倍。

On a full year basis, increasing pricing shipments and production along with lower freight costs, all positively impacted our results.

從全年來看，定價出貨量和產量的增加以及貨運成本的降低都對我們的業績產生了積極影響。

Slide 21, shows a sequential comparison of the fourth quarter to the third quarter of this year.

投影片 21 顯示了今年第四季與第三季的連續比較。

It reflects the benefits that we are seeing from lower input costs, particularly in pulp, freight and energy.

它反映了我們從較低的投入成本中看到的好處，特別是在紙漿、貨運和能源方面。

Slide 16, outlines our capital structure.

投影片 16 概述了我們的資本結構。

Our balance sheet remains very strong and our liquidity improved quarter-over-quarter now totaling $277 million.

我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁，流動性較上季改善，目前總計 2.77 億美元。

During the fourth quarter, we generated $40 million in free cash flow and reduced our net debt by an additional $32 million.

第四季度，我們產生了 4,000 萬美元的自由現金流，並額外減少了 3,200 萬美元的淨債務。

On a year to date basis, we generated $117 million in free cash flow.

年初至今，我們產生了 1.17 億美元的自由現金流。

Since 2020, we have reduced our net debt by almost $450 million.

自 2020 年以來，我們的淨債務減少了近 4.5 億美元。

At the end of the fourth quarter, our net debt to EBITDA ratio was approximately 1.5 times.

截至第四季末，我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率約為 1.5 倍。

We use free cash flows to repurchase $3 million of our stock during the quarter.

本季我們使用自由現金流回購了 300 萬美元的股票。

That translated into almost 79,000 shares repurchased at an average price of $35.69 per share.

這相當於以每股 35.69 美元的平均價格回購了近 79,000 股股票。

We have roughly $7 million left on our share repurchase authorization.

我們的股票回購授權還剩約 700 萬美元。

We expect to continue to buy back shares to mitigate the impact of dilution from share grants to our employees.

我們預計將繼續回購股票，以減輕向員工授予股票所帶來的稀釋影響。

We intend to fund the acquisition of the Augusta facility with $490 million of new secured debt, additional draws on our existing ABL and term loan facilities and cash on hand.

我們打算透過 4.9 億美元的新擔保債務、現有 ABL 和定期貸款融資以及手頭現金的額外提取來為收購奧古斯塔融資提供資金。

Let's now move to slide 17, for an outlook on the first quarter of 2024, as well as some updates to our full year expectations.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 17，了解 2024 年第一季的展望以及我們全年預期的一些更新。

We experienced a severe weather event at our Lewiston mill in January that had an estimated $13 million negative impact.

一月份，我們的劉易斯頓工廠經歷了一場惡劣的天氣事件，造成了估計 1,300 萬美元的負面影響。

That impact is being partially offset by increasing paperboard demand and production.

這種影響被紙板需求和產量的增加部分抵消。

We are expecting continued strong performance in tissue.

我們預計衛生紙業務將持續保持強勁表現。

With those variables.

有了這些變數。

We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $53 million to $63 million in the first quarter.

我們預計第一季調整後 EBITDA 在 5,300 萬美元至 6,300 萬美元之間。

For the full year 2024, we expect to maintain strong margins in tissue with stable volumes.

2024 年全年，我們預計衛生紙業務將維持強勁的利潤率和穩定的銷售量。

We also expect a rebound in paperboard demand in the second half of 2024.

我們也預計 2024 年下半年紙板需求將會反彈。

Our planned major maintenance at Lewiston is expected to negatively impact adjusted EBITDA by $30 million to $35 million.

我們計劃在劉易斯頓進行的重大維護預計將對調整後 EBITDA 產生 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元的負面影響。

And we do expect price and cost to negatively impact us by an additional $40 million to $50 million.

我們確實預期價格和成本將對我們產生額外 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的負面影響。

Finally, our other key assumptions for the full year remain unchanged and do not take into account.

最後，我們對全年的其他關鍵假設保持不變，不予考慮。

Our announced Augusta acquisition.

我們宣布收購奧古斯塔。

Interest expense should be in the $28 million to 30 million range.

利息支出應在 2800 萬至 3000 萬美元範圍內。

Depreciation and amortization expense should be $97 million to $100 million.

折舊和攤提費用應為 9,700 萬至 1 億美元。

Capital expenditures should be between $90 million and $100 million, which includes $26 million for the Lewiston recover recovery boiler tube replacement project and $28 million for the precipitator replacement in Arkansas.

資本支出應在 9000 萬至 1 億美元之間，其中包括用於 Lewiston 回收鍋爐管道更換項目的 2600 萬美元和用於阿肯色州除塵器更換的 2800 萬美元。

As a reminder, the recovery boiler project will require approximately $40 million of total spend.

需要提醒的是，回收鍋爐項目將需要約 4000 萬美元的總支出。

While the precipitator is projected to require $45 million.

而除塵器預計需要 4500 萬美元。

And finally, our tax rate should be in the mid 20% range.

最後，我們的稅率應該在 20% 左右。

Let me now turn the call back over to Arsen.

現在讓我把電話轉回給阿森。

Thanks Sherri.

謝謝雪莉。

The expected Augusta acquisition is a big strategic step for Clearwater Paper.

預期中的奧古斯塔收購是 Clearwater Paper 的一個重大策略步驟。

Upon the expected completion of the transaction, we will welcome the very talented Augusta team to Clearwater Paper.

交易如預期完成後，我們將歡迎非常有才華的奧古斯塔團隊加入克利爾沃特紙業。

We will focus on successful integration and delivering against our value creation expectations.

我們將專注於成功整合並實現我們的價值創造期望。

Our goal is to bring together the best of Augusta and our existing mills to build a stronger paperboard business.

我們的目標是匯集奧古斯塔和我們現有工廠的精華，打造更強大的紙板業務。

Our long-term objective is to build a scaled and diversified paperboard business that meets the needs of our converter customers.

我們的長期目標是建立規模化、多元化的紙板業務，以滿足加工商客戶的需求。

We intend to continue to opportunistically look at paperboard assets across multiple substrates.

我們打算繼續機會主義地關注多種基材的紙板資產。

We will also continue to evaluate the feasibility of investing in our existing assets to expand our product offering.

我們也將繼續評估投資現有資產以擴大我們的產品供應的可行性。

While we look at additional opportunities in the long run in the near to medium term, we're going to focus on generating cash flows and deleveraging our balance sheet.

雖然我們在中短期內著眼於其他長期機會，但我們將專注於產生現金流和去槓桿化資產負債表。

We have a proven track record of doing just that and expect to be back to our cross-cycle target of 2.5 times by the end of 2026.

我們在這方面擁有良好的記錄，預計到 2026 年底將恢復到 2.5 倍的跨週期目標。

When you wrap up by thanking our people for a strong 2023, we delivered outstanding financial results, navigated through challenging market conditions and continued to prioritize our customers.

最後，當您感謝我們的員工在 2023 年取得了強勁的業績時，我們實現了出色的財務業績，克服了充滿挑戰的市場條件，並繼續優先考慮我們的客戶。

I would also like to thank our customers for placing their trust in us and our shareholders for their continued support.

我還要感謝客戶對我們的信任以及股東的持續支持。

With that, we will end our prepared remarks and take your questions.

至此，我們將結束準備好的發言並回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew McKellar, RBC Capitals.

（操作員說明）Matthew McKellar，RBC Capitals。

Hi, Arsen and Sherri, thanks a lot for taking my call and congrats on the transaction.

嗨，Arsen 和 Sherri，非常感謝您接聽我的電話，並祝賀這筆交易。

Maybe to start off, we've seen pricing move a little bit lower for SBS here.

也許首先，我們看到 SBS 的定價略有下降。

Are you able to get a sense of what the run rate annual EBITDA generation for the Augusta facility would be like based on where SBS prices are today and the utilization rates you're expecting for '24?

根據今天的 SBS 價格以及您對 24 年的預期利用率，您是否能夠了解奧古斯塔工廠的年度 EBITDA 產生率是多少？

Assuming that we believe that there was $100 million in EBITDA in 2023.

假設我們認為 2023 年 EBITDA 為 1 億美元。

That was, of course, at 2023 prices and volume, we are expecting a lower carryover and that pricing that you're referring to, but we're expecting a recovery in volume.

當然，以 2023 年的價格和銷售量計算，我們預期結轉量和您所指的定價會較低，但我們預期銷售量會有所回升。

So the two in the long run should offset each other.

所以從長遠來看兩者應該是互相抵消的。

I think once we complete the transaction, we'll be able to give a better idea of what 2024 it looks like at Augusta.

我認為一旦我們完成交易，我們將能夠更好地了解 2024 年奧古斯塔的情況。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

And then can you give us a bit more color maybe on the cost synergies you expect to achieve on the acquisition by the end of '26, including the cadence of when you'd expect those synergies to be achieved?

然後您能否給我們更多的信息，也許是關於您期望在 26 年底之前透過收購實現的成本協同效應，包括您期望何時實現這些協同效應的節奏？

And whether any CapEx or price increases would be associated with how we bridge that ''26 number?

任何資本支出或物價上漲是否與我們如何彌合「26」數字有關？

Let me start with this, the bulk of the synergies we're expecting are really coming from volume.

首先，我們預期的大部分協同效應實際上來自數量。

So we believe the mill is going to be 70% to 80% utilized in 2024.

因此，我們相信到 2024 年，工廠的利用率將達到 70% 至 80%。

In the long run, we should expect to see 95% utilization, which is back to historical run rates.

從長遠來看，我們預計利用率將達到 95%，回到歷史運行率。

And so that would imply about 150,000 tons of volume upside that we have at Augusta.

因此，這意味著奧古斯塔的產量增加了約 15 萬噸。

So the bulk of those synergies should come from that volume left.

因此，大部分協同效應應該來自剩餘的銷售量。

And if you look at historical Clearwater Paper Board EBITDA per ton.

如果您查看歷史上的克利爾沃特紙板每噸 EBITDA。

It's probably in that $200 to $300 range, depending on where you are in the cycle.

它可能在 200 美元到 300 美元的範圍內，具體取決於您所處的周期。

And so the bulk of the synergies I think are going to come from this volume lift.

因此，我認為大部分協同效應將來自銷售的提升。

There is more modest synergies and things like network optimization, procurement and transportation, but that I think is secondary to our focus on the commercial side.

還有更適度的協同效應以及網路優化、採購和運輸等事情，但我認為這對於我們對商業方面的關注來說是次要的。

We expect to get these synergies by the end of 2026.

我們預計到 2026 年底將獲得這些綜效。

We're not prepared to talk about the cadence of what happens in '25, '26.

我們不准備談論 25 年、26 年發生的事情的節奏。

I think some of that is going to be dependent on the market recovery that we're expecting.

我認為其中一些將取決於我們預期的市場復甦。

But we'll have more to say as we progress through the acquisition.

但隨著收購的進展，我們會有更多話要說。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for that.

感謝那。

And then just thinking through the utilization projection events, where you talked about 70% to 80% in '24, I mean, yes, that would be a little bit softer than what you've seen across your own paperboard portfolio, although I think you've outperformed the market recently.

然後想想利用率預測事件，你在 24 年談到了 70% 到 80%，我的意思是，是的，這會比你在自己的紙板產品組合中看到的要軟一些，儘管我認為你最近跑贏了市場。

But just for completeness, could you give us a bit of color on what's behind those assumptions, whether there is anything around the relative health of folding carton versus carbon plates or where you'd expect to concentrate any economic downtime given the level of demand you expect in the market or other factors?

但為了完整起見，您能否給我們一些關於這些假設背後的信息，折疊紙盒與碳板的相對健康狀況是否存在任何問題，或者考慮到您的需求水平，您預計經濟停機時間會集中在哪裡？市場預期還是其他因素？

Yes, that's a great.

是的，那太棒了。

It's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

I think it mostly refers to the book of business that we're acquiring with the mill.

我認為它主要指的是我們與工廠收購的業務簿。

So that's so we believe that book of business will fill the mill up 70% to 80% comment at the time that we complete the acquisition and into 2024.

因此，我們相信，在我們完成收購時直至 2024 年，工廠的業務量將增加 70% 至 80%。

So really that upside is us capturing additional volume and having some additional wins in the market.

因此，真正的好處是我們獲得了額外的交易量並在市場上獲得了一些額外的勝利。

So it's really more indicative of how the mill is going to be loaded and the book of business that we're hoping to retain as part of the acquisition.

因此，它實際上更能說明工廠將如何裝載以及我們希望作為收購的一部分保留的業務記錄。

Sure.

當然。

That makes sense.

這就說得通了。

Maybe sticking with Augusta, I know you talked about looking at some additional substrates and paperboard that could add to your customer value proposition.

也許堅持使用奧古斯塔，我知道您談到了尋找一些可以增加您的客戶價值主張的額外基材和紙板。

I know graphic had done some work historically evaluating the production of folding boxboard at that facility.

我知道圖形曾經做過一些評估該工廠折疊紙板生產歷史的工作。

Is that something you'd be at all interested in?

這是你感興趣的事嗎？

And then I guess just more broadly, can you give us a sense of which substrates you might find attractive are most complementary to your existing portfolio.

然後我想更廣泛地說，您能否讓我們了解您可能認為哪些基材對您現有的產品組合最有吸引力。

And so that's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

I think we're going to focus on as well.

我想我們也會關注。

What do the -- what are the converters and North America what is it that they need?

轉換器是什麼？北美他們需要什麼？

And what is it that they're looking for?

他們在尋找什麼？

In the long run.

從長遠來看。

We do believe that there will be a place in the market for lighter paperboard.

我們確實相信較輕的紙板將在市場上佔有一席之地。

So we're going to explore those options.

所以我們將探索這些選項。

Will also explore other products complementary to SBS that our customers may need or want in the future.

也將探索我們的客戶將來可能需要或想要的與 SBS 互補的其他產品。

Beyond SBS.

超越SBS。

Our customers purchase other substrates as well.

我們的客戶也購買其他基材。

So we will look at potential acquisitions that make sense with the other substrates of paperboard.

因此，我們將研究對其他紙板基材有意義的潛在收購。

But at this point, we are really going to be focusing on on cash flow generation and deleveraging to get us back into a position where we can take advantage of those opportunities.

但目前，我們確實將重點放在現金流產生和去槓桿化，以使我們回到可以利用這些機會的位置。

And Matthew, this is what we've been saying for the last several years is the goal of deleveraging is to put us in the spot to where we can make a transformational acquisition and our intent is to get us back into that spot that we can continue to grow.

馬修，這就是我們過去幾年一直在說的，去槓桿化的目標是讓我們能夠進行轉型性收購，我們的目的是讓我們回到我們可以做到的地方繼續成長。

Great.

偉大的。

That makes sense.

這就說得通了。

Maybe just zooming out and sticking to your outlook for paperboard more broadly it sounds like you've seen a little bit of a pickup in Q1 sequentially here.

也許只是縮小範圍並更廣泛地堅持您對紙板的展望，聽起來您已經看到第一季連續有所回升。

Are there any end markets you call out as being stronger or weaker meaningfully versus Q4 and then maybe -- can you talk just to what's informing your view that we'll see improved demand in the second half of the year and whether you'd expect imports of folding boxboard to be a material factor for how you expect '24 to play?

您認為與第四季度相比，是否有任何終端市場明顯走強或走弱，然後您能否僅談談您的觀點，即我們將在今年下半年看到需求的改善以及您是否期望進口折疊箱板將成為您期望“24”如何發揮的重要因素？

Okay.

好的。

I think there's three questions there.

我認為這裡有三個問題。

So I'll tried to tackle all three of them.

所以我會盡力解決這三個問題。

If I miss one, let me know.

如果我錯過了，請告訴我。

So I think the first one is around which portions of the market are holding up better than others.

所以我認為第一個問題是市場的哪些部分比其他部分錶現得更好。

I would say we've seen in '23 is foodservice has held up better than that in folding carton, that makes sense folding carton.

我想說的是，我們在 23 年看到，餐飲服務比折疊紙盒的表現更好，這對折疊紙盒來說是有道理的。

As you know, SBS is used more in higher end applications and I think those have had some softness in 2023.

如您所知，SBS 更多用於高端應用，我認為這些應用在 2023 年會出現一些疲軟。

In terms of a demand recovery.

從需求復甦來看。

When we say demand we refer to either consumer demand or our customer converter demand, I think that inventory build that we saw in 2022 and into -- 2022 was really substantial and as I have discussions with our customers.

當我們說需求時，我們指的是消費者需求或客戶轉換器需求，我認為我們在 2022 年和 2022 年看到的庫存建設確實非常可觀，正如我與客戶進行的討論一樣。

They still had a hangover of inventory at the end of 2023, but they're working their way through it.

到 2023 年底，他們仍然面臨庫存的困擾，但他們正在努力解決這個問題。

And so what we are expecting to happen is a more normalized ordering pattern from our customers as we progress through 2024.

因此，隨著 2024 年的進展，我們預期客戶的訂購模式將會更加標準化。

We're hoping for some strengthening in consumer demand as well for those higher end applications of paperboard.

我們希望消費者對紙板的高端應用的需求也有所增強。

So those are the two things that I think will drive driver recovery.

所以我認為這兩件事將推動驅動程式的恢復。

I think it's going to be gradual and in the next couple of quarters and strengthening into at the end of '24 and into 2025.

我認為這將是漸進的，在接下來的幾個季度中，並在 24 年底和 2025 年加強。

Great.

偉大的。

And I know there's a multipart question there I think the last part was just I mean, are folding boxboard imports on a pretty material factor for your outlook in '24.

我知道有一個由多部分組成的問題，我認為最後一部分只是我的意思，折疊紙板進口對於您 24 年的前景來說是一個相當重要的因素。

What are you seeing on that?

你對此有何看法？

Thanks for reminding me.

謝謝你提醒我。

So listen, if you look at the data of imports in '23 were actually down versus 2022.

所以聽著，如果你看一下 23 年的進口數據，實際上與 2022 年相比是下降的。

If you look at recent data, they were down by almost 20%, 25% year-over-year.

如果你看一下最近的數據，它們比去年同期下降了近 20%、25%。

They're projecting that they maybe bump up by 10% or about 50,000, 60,000 tons in '24 and being flat in '25 and right around 500,000, 600,000 tons.

他們預計，24 年產量可能會增加 10%，即 50,000、60,000 噸左右，而 25 年則持平，大約 500,000、600,000 噸左右。

I mean, those are historical averages that we've seen.

我的意思是，這些是我們看到的歷史平均值。

And so I know there's been some commentary out there about imports.

所以我知道有一些關於進口的評論。

But from what we're seeing, certainly, they're here, they've been here for many years, and the rate of imports is about what we'd expect at this time.

但從我們所看到的情況來看，當然，它們已經在這裡了，它們已經在這裡很多年了，而且進口率與我們目前的預期差不多。

So I don't think this is important driven.

所以我認為這並不重要。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And last one on paperboard.

最後一張是紙板上的。

We should we understand I guess your announcement yesterday is essentially confirming that you intend to remain an independent supplier of paperboard.

我們應該明白，我想你們昨天的聲明本質上是確認你們打算繼續作為獨立的紙板供應商。

And by that, I mean, you don't see yourself growing into converting operations in a substantial way.

我的意思是，您不會看到自己以實質方式發展到轉換業務。

Is that strategic option pretty firmly off the table at this point?

此時此刻，這項戰略選擇是否已完全排除在外？

I think in the near to medium term, that's absolutely right.

我認為從近期到中期來看，這是絕對正確的。

I think we're committed to the independent converters and where the independent supplier.

我認為我們致力於獨立轉換器和獨立供應商。

I think we think it's a great set of customers, and we think we have plenty of room to grow and that's been been our sweet spot in our value proposition for many years.

我認為我們認為這是一群很棒的客戶，我們認為我們有足夠的成長空間，多年來這一直是我們價值主張的最佳點。

So we're going to play to our strengths and we think we can be there.

所以我們將發揮我們的優勢，我們認為我們可以做到這一點。

And for those customers for those customers in the long run.

從長遠來看，對於這些客戶來說，對於這些客戶來說。

So yes, our focus is to be that independent supplier to the North American converters.

所以，是的，我們的重點是成為北美轉換器的獨立供應商。

Great, thanks for that.

太好了，謝謝你。

Maybe next, just switching over to tissue, I'd just like to ask about your process of exploring options there.

也許接下來，只是切換到紙巾，我想問您探索那裡的選擇的過程。

I think you've previously been pretty candid in reviewing your options for both businesses be able to share at this point, how advanced any process might be for exploring your options for the tissue business even give an indication of what your expectations might be for time line or value?

我認為您之前非常坦率地審查了兩家企業的選擇，現在可以分享，探索紙巾業務選擇的任何流程可能有多先進，甚至可以表明您對時間的期望線還是值？

And then any color you could provide on how a sale would work for the Lewiston site in particular, given that mill produces both products?

然後，考慮到該工廠生產這兩種產品，您可以提供任何顏色來說明銷售如何在劉易斯頓工廠進行嗎？

Yeah, I think it's a little premature to be jumping to timelines or expectations.

是的，我認為現在就跳到時間表或期望還為時過早。

I mean, if we step back, we talked about our focus on paperboard growth, we have a fantastic tissue business.

我的意思是，如果我們退一步，我們談論了對紙板成長的關注，我們擁有出色的生活紙業務。

We operate that business really well.

我們將該業務經營得非常好。

And but as I've said before, that the business does need scale and the industry does need consolidation, given the supply and demand landscape.

但正如我之前所說，考慮到供需情勢，業務確實需要規模，產業也確實需要整合。

We'll look at all options and one of those options.

我們將研究所有選項以及其中一個選項。

It may very well be operating the business.

它很可能正在經營這項業務。

So we'll do the right thing for our shareholders.

因此，我們將為股東做正確的事。

We'll do the right thing for our customers.

我們將為我們的客戶做正確的事。

And our people.

還有我們的人民。

Have said I've said before, yes, Lewiston.

我之前說過，是的，劉易斯頓。

Lewiston has multiple product categories in there.

劉易斯頓有多種產品類別。

It's a great site.

這是一個很棒的網站。

It's our biggest site, the largest producing site.

這是我們最大的基地，最大的生產基地。

That site is critical to Clearwater Paper.

該網站對 Clearwater Paper 至關重要。

And so we're obviously thinking about any implications there.

因此，我們顯然正在考慮其中的任何影響。

But I think it's premature to be talking about any specific paths.

但我認為現在談論任何具體路徑還為時過早。

Sure, okay.

當然可以。

Yeah.

是的。

That's fair enough.

這很公平。

But one last one for me.

但對我來說最後一張。

I just want to confirm that I heard correctly that the impact from the extreme cold weather events in January was $13 million for the Q1 number.

我只是想確認一下，我沒聽錯，1 月份極端寒冷天氣事件對第一季的影響為 1,300 萬美元。

Just want to understand, I guess what maybe is embedded in that it will what exactly occurred and whether you might have any business interruption insurance could be applied against that in time?

只是想了解，我想這其中可能包含著什麼，到底發生了什麼，以及您是否可以及時申請任何業務中斷保險？

So let me start with what's embedded and then Sherri can grab the financial piece.

因此，讓我從嵌入的內容開始，然後雪莉就可以抓住財務部分。

So it's there's a combination of two things.

所以這是兩件事的結合。

One is equipment damage.

一是設備損壞。

So when the freeze happened, it was very cold in Lewiston for an extended period of time when the mill goes down in that kind of cold.

因此，當冰凍發生時，劉易斯頓在很長一段時間內非常寒冷，當工廠在這種寒冷中停機時。

It causes extensive damage.

它會造成廣泛的損害。

So part of it is just equipment damage and repairing equipment.

所以其中一部分只是設備損壞和設備修理。

The other part was downtime that we had to take to get the mill back up and running.

另一部分是我們必須花費的停機時間才能使工廠恢復正常運作。

So together, that was $13 million.

總共是 1300 萬美元。

And Sherri will you take the insurance question?

雪莉，你願意回答保險問題嗎？

So we would have a deductible of $4 million that we would have to offset.

因此，我們需要抵銷 400 萬美元的免賠額。

And we have not assumed any recovery in the numbers that we included.

我們並沒有假設我們所統計的數字會出現任何復甦。

So any recovery that we would be able to achieve would be an offset to the guidance that we provided.

因此，我們能夠實現的任何復甦都將抵消我們提供的指導。

And that's we've obviously we're working with our insurance companies.

顯然我們正在與保險公司合作。

So I don't want to imply that.

所以我不想暗示這一點。

I mean now it's $13 million minus $4 million is the recovery that we'll see.

我的意思是，現在我們將看到 1300 萬美元減 400 萬美元的復甦。

So we'll have to work through with our insurance company and figure out what that recovery, what would look like.

因此，我們必須與保險公司合作，弄清楚恢復情況，會是什麼樣子。

There's both an asset equipment portion of insurance as well as business interruption.

保險既有資產設備部分，也有業務中斷部分。

So that's what we have to work through.

這就是我們必須解決的問題。

Okay.

好的。

That's make sense.

這是有道理。

Thanks very much for that color.

非常感謝那種顏色。

That's help for me, I will turn the back.

這對我來說是有幫助的，我會回頭的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, there are no further questions.

（操作員說明） 此時，沒有進一步的問題。

Thank you for joining today's call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。