Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(video playing) Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to today's Clearwater paper third quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

（影片播放）感謝您的耐心等待。在此，我謹代表 Clearwater Paper 公司歡迎各位參加今天舉行的 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Sloan Bohlen, Investor Relations. Sloan.

（操作員指示）現在我將把電話轉交給投資者關係部的斯隆·博倫。斯隆。

Thank you, Greg. Good afternoon and thank you for joining Clearwater Paper's third quarter of 2025 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Arsen Kitch, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sherri Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Financial results for the third quarter of 2025 were released shortly after today's market close. You will find a presentation of supplemental information, including a slide providing the company's current outlook posted on our Investor Relations page at our website at clearwaterpaper.com.

謝謝你，格雷格。下午好，感謝各位參加 Clearwater Paper 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Arsen Kitch，以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Sherri Baker。2025年第三季財務業績在今天股市收盤後不久發布。您可以在我們網站 clearwaterpaper.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到補充資訊的簡報，其中包括提供公司當前前景的幻燈片。

Additionally, we will be providing certain non-GAAP financial information in this afternoon's discussion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release and in the supplemental information provided on our website. Please note slide two of our supplemental information covering forward-looking statements. Rather than reading the slide, we'll incorporate it by reference into our prepared remarks, and with that, let me turn the call over to Arsen.

此外，我們將在今天下午的討論中提供一些非GAAP財務資訊。新聞稿和我們網站上提供的補充資料中包含了非GAAP財務資訊與可比較GAAP資訊的調節表。請注意我們補充資料中的第二頁幻燈片，其中涵蓋了前瞻性陳述。我們不照著幻燈片念，而是把它融入我們準備好的發言稿中，接下來，讓我把發言權交給阿爾森。

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Let me begin with a summary of our third quarter performance highlights. We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $18 million which is toward the high end of our guidance range of $10 million to $20 million. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations stands at $87 million, up from $26 million during the same period last year. This increase is driven mostly by our efforts to reduce fixed costs and for incremental months of Augusta results included in our P&L.

謝謝大家，下午好。首先，我來總結一下我們第三季的業績亮點。我們實現了1800萬美元的調整後EBITDA，接近我們先前1000萬美元至2000萬美元預期範圍的高端。今年迄今，持續經營業務的調整後EBITDA為8,700萬美元，高於去年同期的2,600萬美元。這一成長主要是由於我們努力降低固定成本，以及奧古斯塔新增月份的業績計入了我們的損益表。

Net sales grew by 2% versus the prior quarter, driven by a 6% increase in shipment volumes, partly offset by lower market driven pricing. We successfully completed all three of our planned major maintenance outages for 2025. The Lewiston outage was completed in August at a direct cost of $24 million. The Augusta outage was completed in October at a direct cost of $16 million.

淨銷售額較上一季成長2%，主要得益於出貨量成長6%，但部分被市價走低所抵銷。我們已成功完成2025年計畫的全部三項重大停機檢修。劉易斯頓停機檢修已於8月完成，直接成本為2,400萬美元。奧古斯塔停機檢修已於10月完成，直接成本為1,600萬美元。

I'm pleased to report that the execution of our planned major maintenance outages was significantly improved versus prior year. This confirms our belief that an annual cadence delivers generally more manageable and predictable outages.

我很高興地報告，我們計劃中的重大維護停機檢修的執行情況較上年有了顯著改善。這證實了我們一直以來的觀點，即年度檢修週期通常能帶來更易於管理和預測的停機檢修。

We've also largely captured the run rate benefits of our fixed cost reduction initiatives. These are now tracking to around $50 million in savings for the year, which would exceed our original estimate of $30 million to $40 million. These savings are helping us offset some of the margin pressure that we're facing during this industry down cycle.

我們已基本實現固定成本削減計劃的年度效益。這些計劃預計全年可節省約 5,000 萬美元，超過我們最初預估的 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元。這些節省下來的成本有助於我們緩解當前行業下行週期中面臨的部分利潤壓力。

Let's now turn to some commentary on the industry and our key strategic initiatives. While the latest third quarter ASMPA report is not yet available, the trends that we saw Q2 have largely persisted into Q3.

接下來，我們來談談產業現況和我們的關鍵策略措施。雖然ASMPA最新的第三季報告尚未發布，但我們在第二季觀察到的趨勢在第三季基本上得以延續。

We believe a competitor is continuing to ramp new SBS capacity, which may add up to 10% of additional supply to the industry. Without other changes, this level of new capacity would result in utilization rates in the low 80% range by year end. This would be well below the normalized cross cycle average of 90% to 95% and would result in supply exceeding demand by more than 500,000 tons.

我們認為，一家競爭對手正在持續擴大SBS產能，這可能會為該產業增加高達10%的額外供應量。如果沒有其他變化，如此規模的新增產能將導致年底產能利用率僅約80%。這將遠低於90%至95%的正常週期平均利用率，並導致供應量超過需求量50萬噸以上。

These low utilization rates have led to margin pressure resulting in returns that can't support investments into our capital-intensive industry. This is simply not a sustainable position to be in for the industry, which is why we believe that the industry will rebalance supply with demand in the medium to long-term.

低利用率導致利潤率承壓，使得收益無法支撐對我們這個資本密集產業的投資。這種狀況對產業而言是不可持續的，因此我們相信，中長期內，產業的供需關係將會重新平衡。

As we previously discussed. There are several potential paths to this recovery. First, RISI is forecasting an approximately 350,000-ton net capacity reduction in the first half of 2026 which would drive utilization rates to above 90%.

正如我們之前討論過的。要實現這一目標有幾種可能的途徑。首先，RISI 預測 2026 年上半年淨產能將減少約 35 萬噸，這將使利用率達到 90% 以上。

Second, tariffs and a weakening dollar may put pressure on the price of some of the more than 700,000 tons of imports into the US. Encouraging customers to seek domestic suppliers. And lastly, industry participants may choose to swing capacity to other grades such as CUK, white top or other non-bleached applications. This could help absorb excess SBS capacity.

其次，關稅和美元走弱可能會對美國進口的70多萬噸商品中的部分價格帶來壓力。鼓勵客戶尋找國內供應商。最後，業內人士可能會選擇將產能轉向其他等級的棉布，例如CUK、白頂棉或其他非漂白用途。這有助於消化過剩的SBS產能。

Without a combination of these supply changes, we believe that it will take more than 5 years of demand growth to fully absorb the excess capacity that exists today. While the current industry oversupply is primarily limited to SBS, we believe that it is having an impact on the other two paperboard substrates.

如果沒有這些供應方面的調整，我們認為需要超過五年的需求成長才能完全消化目前存在的過剩產能。雖然目前產業產能過剩主要集中在SBS紙板上，但我們認為這也會對其他兩種紙板基材產生影響。

Each substrate has its own strengths and applications, but there's meaningful overlap between them, presenting substitution opportunities to customers. This is why we believe that pricing has been historically correlated between SBS, CUK, and CRB. Today, CUK is priced $50 per ton higher than SBS according RISI.

每種基材都有其自身的優勢和應用，但它們之間存在顯著的重疊，為客戶提供了替代選擇的機會。因此，我們認為SBS、CUK和CRB的價格歷來具有相關性。根據RISI的數據，目前CUK的價格比SBS高出每噸50美元。

Which is not intuitive given SBS's superior print quality and higher bleaching costs. If you look at the 30-year history of this market, it is only in recent years that CUK pricing has exceeded SBS. CRB today is priced at $120 per ton lower than SBS according to RISI, which is a narrower GAAP than we've seen historically.

考慮到SBS優異的印刷品質和更高的漂白成本，這一點並不合乎直覺。回顧過去30年的市場歷史，CUK的價格直到近幾年才超過SBS。根據RISI的數據，目前CRB的價格比SBS低120美元/噸，比我們以往看到的GAAP標準更為嚴格。

SBS has superior performance characteristics versus CRB with a higher production cost of more than $200 per ton due to the due to the use of virgin fiber and bleaching. Buying decisions and packaging are driven by several factors including performance, cost, and sustainability. Most importantly, customers buy paperboard by area or square feet and not tons.

與CRB紙板相比，SBS紙板具有更優異的性能，但由於使用原生纖維和漂白工藝，其生產成本更高，每噸超過200美元。購買決策和包裝受多種因素驅動，包括性能、成本和永續性。最重要的是，客戶購買紙板時以面積（平方英尺）而非噸數計算。

To match the strength performance characteristics of SBS, a customer would need to use a heavier weight of CRB, resulting in a price that we estimate to be equal to or higher on a per square foot basis than SBS in today's market.

為了達到 SBS 的強度性能，客戶需要使用更重的 CRB，因此我們估計，以每平方英尺計算，其價格將等於或高於當今市場上的 SBS。

If these trends persist, we believe that CPG and retail customers will look closely at substitutions, which would support higher SBS demand, put a ceiling on CUK and CRB, and return to historical pricing correlations between the three substrates.

如果這些趨勢持續下去，我們認為消費品和零售客戶將密切關注替代品，這將支持更高的 SBS 需求，限制 CUK 和 CRB 的價格，並恢復這三種基材之間的歷史價格相關性。

Let me now shift to some comments on a potential CUK investment that we previously discussed. As a reminder, we're exploring adding CUK's swing capability to one of our SBS machines.

現在我想就我們之前討論過的CUK潛在投資項目發表一些看法。再次提醒大家，我們正在考慮將 CUK 的擺動功能添加到我們的 SBS 機器中。

We have nearly completed the engineering work, and now I can share some additional details on the project. The estimated capital required for the investment is approximately $50 million. With a 12-month to18 month led time to complete. At today's prices, the project return is estimated to be more than 20%, largely based on trading up lower end SBS volume to CUK.

工程工作已接近尾聲，現在我可以分享一些專案細節。該項目預計投資額約5,000萬美元，工期為12至18個月。以目前價格計算，專案回報率預計超過20%，主要基於將低階SBS產品升級為CUK產品。

The returns would be considerably higher if we assume that we're filling up open SBS capacity. Our mill and Cypress Bend, Arkansas best position for this project, given its proximity to customers and access to low-cost softwood fiber required for CUK. We estimate that open market demand for CUK is around 300,000 tons to 400,000 tons, with potential upside of independent converters and reliable domestic supply.

如果我們假設充分利用了所有閒置的SBS產能，那麼回報將會更高。鑑於我們工廠靠近客戶，且能夠獲取CUK所需的低成本軟木纖維，因此位於阿肯色州賽普拉斯本德的工廠是該項目的最佳選擇。我們估計CUK的公開市場需求量約為30萬至40萬噸，而獨立加工商和可靠的國內供應還有潛在的成長空間。

Our goal would be to capture around 100,000 tons of this volume, utilizing about one-third of Cypress Bend's capacity. The remaining two-thirds of the capacity would remain in SBS.

我們的目標是利用賽普拉斯本德水庫約三分之一的產能，捕獲其中約10萬噸的廢棄物。剩餘的三分之二產能將保留在SBS水庫。

We see two upsides to this project. First, there's a strategic benefit to expanding our product portfolio to better serve our converter customers. Second, it would enable us to more fully utilize our network capacity during an SBS industry downturn.

我們認為這個項目有兩個優點。首先，擴大我們的產品組合，更好地服務我們的加工商客戶，具有戰略意義。其次，這將使我們能夠在 SBS 產業低迷時期更充分地利用我們的網路容量。

We may conclude in the future that this is a good investment, but we're putting a final decision on hold at this time. We remain focused on running all three of our SBS mills, vigorously defending our SBS market share, and preserving the strength of our balance sheet.

未來我們或許會認為這是一項不錯的投資，但目前我們暫不做出最終決定。我們將繼續專注於營運旗下三家SBS工廠，全力捍衛我們的SBS市場份額，並維持穩健的資產負債表。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Sherri to discuss our quarter three financial results in more detail, as well as provide an outlook for Q4 and some additional thoughts and some initial thoughts on 2026.

接下來，我將把電話交給 Sherri，讓她更詳細地討論我們第三季度的財務業績，並展望第四季度以及對 2026 年的一些其他想法和初步想法。

Thank you, Arsen. Let's start by reviewing our financial performance in the third quarter in more detail. Net sales were at $399 million up 1% year over year, driven by a 3% increase in paper board shipment volumes partially offset by lower market pricing.

謝謝，阿森。我們先來詳細回顧一下第三季的財務表現。淨銷售額為3.99億美元，年增1%，主要得益於紙板出貨量成長3%，但部分被市價下跌所抵銷。

Net loss from continuing operations with $54 million or $3.34 per diluted share, primarily due to a $48 million non-cash impairment of goodwill. This non-cash impairment represents all of our remaining goodwill. Most of this goodwill was accumulated through the acquisition of Manchester Industries in 2016.

持續經營業務淨虧損5,400萬美元，即每股攤薄虧損3.34美元，主因是商譽非現金減損4,800萬美元。此非現金減損涵蓋了我們剩餘的全部商譽。這些商譽大部分是透過 2016 年收購曼徹斯特工業公司累積起來的。

The impairment was driven by the decline in our market capitalization as compared to the increase in our book value, which was driven by the gain from divestiture of our tissue business late last year. Adjusted EBITDA was at $18 million towards the higher end of our guidance range of $10 million to $20 million.

減損主要源自於公司市值下降，而帳面價值上升則得益於去年底剝離紙巾業務所獲得的收益。調整後 EBITDA 為 1800 萬美元，接近我們先前預期的 1000 萬美元至 2000 萬美元區間的上限。

We saw improved cost performance due to our fixed cost reduction initiative which more than offset lower pricing and higher input costs. SG&A as a percent of sales was at 6.2% at the lower end of our targeted range of 6% to 7% of net sales. We believe that this is at the lower end of our industry benchmarks, demonstrating our commitment to running a lean, cost effective company.

由於我們實施了固定成本削減計劃，成本效益顯著提升，足以抵消價格下調和投入成本上升帶來的影響。銷售、管理及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比為6.2%，處於我們設定的6%至7%目標區間的下限。我們認為這處於行業基準的較低水平，這體現了我們致力於打造精簡高效、成本效益高的公司的決心。

Let's now turn to our balance sheet and capital allocation.

現在讓我們來看看資產負債表和資本配置。

We generated $34 million in cash from operations during the quarter and approximately $3.5 million in free cash flows. Our net leverage ratio is at 2.7 times, and we have ample available liquidity of $455 million. While our leverage ratio has increased due to the current industry down cycle, our aggregate debt level has remained stable as we continue our focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet.

本季我們從經營活動中獲得了 3,400 萬美元的現金，自由現金流約 350 萬美元。我們的淨槓桿率為 2.7 倍，並且我們有 4.55 億美元的充足可用流動資金。儘管由於當前行業下行週期，我們的槓桿率有所上升，但由於我們繼續專注於維持強勁的資產負債表，因此我們的總債務水準保持穩定。

We also repurchased $2 million of shares, bringing our total to $20 million against our $100 million dollar authorization. We will consider additional share repurchases when we have a line of sights to free cash flow generation in the near to medium term.

我們也回購了價值 200 萬美元的股票，使我們的回購總額達到 2,000 萬美元，超過了 1 億美元的授權額度。當近期或中期內自由現金流前景明朗時，我們將考慮追加股票回購。

Turning now to our outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $13 million to $23 million. We expect slightly lower paper board shipments versus the third quarter due to seasonality. We expect 3% to 4% lower production volume, driving less cost absorption than during the prior quarter.

現在來看我們對第四季的展望。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 為 1300 萬美元至 2300 萬美元。受季節性因素影響，我們預計紙板出貨量將略低於第三季。我們預計產量將下降3%至4%，導致成本吸收能力低於上一季。

We have largely captured the benefits from our fixed cost reduction efforts in previous quarters, and while we will maintain those savings, we do not expect significant additional savings between the third and fourth quarters.

我們在前幾個季度已經基本實現了固定成本削減措施的效益，雖然我們將繼續保持這些節省，但我們預計第三季和第四季之間不會有顯著的額外節省。

We expect other input costs to remain relatively stable, and our guidance includes $16 million of major maintenance outage cost at our Augusta mill, which was completed in October.

我們預計其他投入成本將保持相對穩定，我們的預期包括奧古斯塔工廠 1,600 萬美元的重大維護停機成本，該成本已於 10 月完成。

And lastly, let me provide you with some of our initial assumptions for 2026. We expect revenue of around $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion and a capacity utilization rate in the mid 80% range. We are also assuming that we'll see the carryover impact from 2025 market-driven price changes into 2026.

最後，讓我來向大家介紹我們對 2026 年的一些初步假設。我們預計營收約為 14.5 億美元至 15.5 億美元，產能利用率約 80%。我們也假設 2025 年市場驅動的價格變動的影響會延續到 2026 年。

We expect to generate enough productivity and cost reductions to offset 2% to 3% of cost inflation.

我們預計透過提高生產效率和降低成本，可以抵銷 2% 到 3% 的成本通膨。

We expect capital expenditures of $65 million to $75 million to generate incremental cash flow, we will target more than $20 million in working capital improvements, primarily in inventory. And lastly, given newly enacted tax legislation, we do not expect to be a net cash taxpayer next year. The biggest variable that is difficult for us to predict is price changes in 2026.

我們預計 6,500 萬至 7,500 萬美元的資本支出將產生增量現金流，我們將以超過 2,000 萬美元的營運資本改善為目標，主要用於庫存。最後，鑑於新頒布的稅法，我們預計明年不會成為淨現金納稅人。我們難以預測的最大變數是2026年的價格變動。

Currently, RISI is forecasting an increase in SBS folding carton price of $30 per ton and cup stock of $40 per ton in the first half of next year. This corresponds to their assumption that utilization rates will improve to over 90% with a net industry capacity reduction of approximately 350,000 tons. Regardless of industry conditions. We remain focused on operating effectively, reducing our cost, and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

目前，RISI 預測明年上半年 SBS 折疊紙盒價格將上漲每噸 30 美元，杯子價格將上漲每噸 40 美元。這與他們的假設相符，即利用率將提高到 90% 以上，而產業淨產能將減少約 35 萬噸。無論行業狀況如何。我們將繼續專注於高效營運、降低成本和維持穩健的資產負債表。

I'll now turn the call back to Arsen for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給阿爾森，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Sherri. While we're navigating a challenging industry environment, we remain confident in the long-term fundamentals of the paper board market and our ability to generate strong returns. We have high-quality assets that are geographically well positioned to serve independent customers, and we intend to maintain our market share.

謝謝雪莉。儘管我們正面臨充滿挑戰的產業環境，但我們對紙板市場的長期基本面以及我們創造豐厚回報的能力仍然充滿信心。我們擁有優質的資產，地理位置優越，能夠更好地服務獨立客戶，我們也決心保持目前的市場份額。

We believe that paperboard packaging is strong demand fundamentals as consumers and customers continue to seek sustainable and renewable packaging solutions. We have a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and more than $450 million in liquidity, positioning us to weather this current downturn.

我們相信，隨著消費者和客戶不斷尋求永續和再生包裝解決方案，紙板包裝的需求仍然強勁。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表，債務水準可控，流動資金超過4.5億美元，這使我們能夠抵禦當前的經濟低迷。

In an environment where utilization rates return to 90% to 95%, we expect to achieve cross-cycle adjusted EBITDA margins of 13% to 14%. Resulting in free cash flow conversion of 40% to 50% or over $100 million in free cash flow per year, assuming $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion in net sales.

在產能利用率恢復到 90% 至 95% 的環境下，我們預計跨週期調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將達到 13% 至 14%。假設淨銷售額為 18 億至 19 億美元，則自由現金流轉換率將達到 40% 至 50%，即每年自由現金流超過 1 億美元。

Let me conclude my remarks by thanking our people for their efforts to remain focused on operating safely and providing excellent service to our customers.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工，感謝他們為確保安全營運和為客戶提供優質服務所付出的努力。

I would also like to thank our customers for putting their trust in us and our shareholders for their continued interest. With that, we'll open it up to your questions.

我還要感謝我們的客戶對我們的信任，以及股東們一直以來對我們的關注。接下來，我們將開放問答環節。

Great, thanks, Arsen. (Operator Instructions)

太好了，謝謝，阿森。 （操作說明）

Sean Stewart, TD Cowen.

Sean Stewart，TD Cowen。

Thanks, good afternoon, everyone. Arsen, I want to start with the decision to hold the CUK swing capacity project, I gather given a pretty strong return profile for that project, this is more around wanting to hit balance sheet targets, assuming that's correct, can you give us a sense of where you would like to see Leverage ratios get to, or you know free cash flow profile for the overall company approved to before you would green light that project.

謝謝大家，下午好。 Arsen，我想先談談暫停CUK產能擴張計畫的決定。我了解到，鑑於該專案的報酬率相當可觀，此舉更多是為了實現資產負債表目標。假設我的理解正確，您能否簡單說明您希望達到的目標？槓桿率，或者說，你知道，在批准該專案之前，需要獲得公司整體的自由現金流狀況批准。

Yeah, good question. So, you're right. I think it's a good, it's likely a good project, but we're putting that decision on hold. It would take more than two years for us to deliver cash flow from this from this project, which means we'd have to finance it through that.

嗯，問得好。所以，你說得對。我認為這是一個好項目，很可能是一個好項目，但我們暫緩做出這個決定。從這個專案產生現金流需要兩年多的時間，這意味著我們必須透過融資來實現這一目標。

And right now we need to prioritize maintaining a strong a strong balance sheet and focusing on running our SBS mills and defending our market share, we said previously we're targeting leverage ratio in the 1% to 2% range.

而現在，我們需要優先維持強勁的資產負債表，專注於營運我們的SBS工廠並捍衛我們的市場份額。我們之前說過，我們的目標是將槓桿率控制在1%到2%的範圍內。

EBITDA margins cross cycle 13% to14%. So, we'll revisit this decision later in today's market environment, at today's prices, it is a very attractive return, but we have to revisit it. In the future and see what those conditions look like and see if we need to update our assumptions.

EBITDA利潤率跨週期為13%至14%。所以，我們會在今天的市場環境下，以今天的價格來看，重新思考這個決定。這是一個非常有吸引力的回報，但我們必須重新考慮。未來我們會觀察這些情況的發展，看看是否需要更新我們的假設。

Okay, understood on that front and then with respect to your view on the market outlook for SBS, I gather a lot of this is based on what RISI forecasting in terms of forthcoming capacity closures.

好的，這方面我明白了。至於您對SBS市場前景的看法，我了解到很多觀點都基於RISI對即將發生的產能關閉的預測。

According to their forecast, we would need to see those announcements soon. I guess I'm wondering on your perspective of Industry willingness to make these to take these initiatives to rebalance the market.

根據他們的預測，我們很快就會看到這些公告。我想了解您對業界是否願意採取這些舉措來重新平衡市場的看法。

And the extent to which you're seeing any import relief at this point is as tariffs take hold and if that's helping at the margin at all.

目前來看，進口緩解的程度取決於關稅是否生效，以及關稅是否能起到任何一定的作用。

Yeah, listen, we're not going to comment on what our competitors may or may not do. You're right, RISI is forecasting a first half net capacity reduction of 350,000 tons, so they're assuming a turn in the market.

是啊，聽著，我們不會對競爭對手可能採取或不採取的行動發表評論。你說得對，RISI預測上半年淨產能將減少35萬噸，所以他們假設市場會出現轉機。

We're certainly hoping for that, but we're planning for tomorrow looking like today.

我們當然希望如此，但我們計劃明天的情況和今天一樣。

From an import perspective, it's still a bit early to tell, but as we look at European imports July year-to-date, they're down I believe approximately 10%. So I think you're starting to see some cracks in the import balance into North America, between a 15% tariff and a weakening dollar.

從進口角度來看，現在下結論還為時過早，但就今年7月至今的歐洲進口量而言，我認為下降了約10%。所以我認為，由於 15% 的關稅和美元走弱，北美進口平衡開始出現一些裂痕。

Absorbing 20% or 30% of additional costs for a for an importer into North America, I think is getting harder and harder. And for domestic customers, I think they're looking for more reliable, stable domestic supply. So we're optimistic that this will be a tail one for us as we head into 2026.

我認為，對於北美進口商來說，承擔 20% 或 30% 的額外成本越來越困難了。而對於國內用戶來說，我認為他們正在尋找更可靠、更穩定的國內供電。因此，我們樂觀地認為，在進入 2026 年之際，這將是我們遇到的最後一個難關。

Okay. Just one last one, maybe for Sherri at, you went through a bunch of 2026 metrics that you're targeting at, do you have, an initial view on what the maintenance schedule is going to look like, and I appreciate you, you're smoothing this out now with a more regular schedule across the mail platform.

好的。最後一個問題，也許是問Sherri的，你之前討論過很多2026年的目標指標，你對維護計畫有初步的規劃嗎？我很感謝你，你現在正在努力讓郵件平台的維護工作更標準化。

Can you give us perspective on the cadence of anticipated closures in 2026 and are we safe to assume that the overall expense that you're targeting would be similar to 2025 levels?

您能否為我們介紹一下 2026 年預計的關店節奏？我們是否可以假設您設定的總支出目標將與 2025 年的水準相似？

So I'll answer the second part first. You should expect the cost to look very similar to what we see in '25, so I would start there. We're still finalizing the schedules for next year, so we'll be able to come out and tell you exactly which facilities in which quarters, probably by our February call, and then we'll highlight if there's any overlap inconsistencies if we change the quarters.

那我先回答第二部分。預計成本將與 2025 年的成本非常相似，所以我建議從那裡開始。我們仍在敲定明年的日程安排，所以我們將在二月份的電話會議上告訴大家具體哪些設施將在哪些季度使用，然後我們會重點說明如果更改季度安排是否存在任何重疊或不一致的情況。

Sean, maybe one more comment on that. We had our Lewiston outage in late Q2, so it was with Augusta and In October, doing an outage in the middle of summer is pretty challenging from just a heat perspective. So we are looking at potentially moving up that outage into earlier in the summer, maybe late.

肖恩，或許你還有一點要補充。我們在第二季末經歷了劉易斯頓的停電，所以和奧古斯塔一起在十月份停電，在盛夏進行停電，從高溫的角度來看，是非常具有挑戰性的。因此，我們正在考慮將停電時間提前到夏季早些時候，甚至可能提前到夏季晚些時候。

Late Q2 just to make it a safer, more manageable outage. So, we're still finalizing those details, but that is the potential for us to have the Lewiston outage a bit earlier in the year, which would mean that we would have two Lewiston outages within a 12-month period potentially, but we'll share that with you in February.

安排在第二季末，目的是讓停機維護更安全、更易於管理。所以，我們仍在敲定這些細節，但這意味著劉易斯頓停電可能會在今年早些時候發生，這意味著在 12 個月內可能會發生兩次劉易斯頓停電，但我們會在 2 月與您分享這一消息。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, that's all I have for now. Thanks very much.

好了，我目前就只有這些。非常感謝。

Matthew McKellar, RBC.

Matthew McKellar，RBC。

Hi, thanks very much for taking my questions. First, shipments in a quarter were solidly ahead of where you sort of guided to. Looks like food service sales are pretty healthy, but could you provide some additional perspective on where you saw the incremental strength versus your expectations as of late July and if you could provide any other broader commentary around relative strength and weakness, you're seeing conditions across, liquid packaging, folding carton, food service, that'd be great. Thanks.

您好，非常感謝您回答我的問題。首先，本季的出貨量遠超過您先前的預期。看起來食品服務銷售情況相當不錯，但您能否從另一個角度分析一下，截至7月底，您認為哪些方面實現了增長，以及與您預期相比有何不同？如果您還能就液體包裝、折疊紙盒、食品服務等各個領域的相對強弱情況提供更廣泛的評論，那就太好了。謝謝。

I think summertime is normal seasonality uptick for food service. We certainly saw some nice strength in food service, and our team is doing a really nice job of competing vigorously in the market and filling out our capacity. I think we've had some optimism from folks from some of our food service customers. I think you may be seeing some Import relief helping on things like on paper plates, that is helping some of our paper plate customers see stronger demand. So, I think those are some of the variables that came into play in Q3.

我認為夏季是餐飲服務業正常的季節性成長期。我們確實看到了餐飲服務業的強勁成長勢頭，我們的團隊在市場上積極競爭，並充分利用了產能，表現出色。我認為我們的一些餐飲服務客戶也對前景持樂觀態度。我認為進口方面的一些紓困措施可能對紙盤等產品有所幫助，這有助於我們的一些紙盤客戶看到更強的需求。所以，我認為這些是第三季發揮作用的一些變數。

Okay, that's great. And I guess just following up with the second part about any other comments around kind of weakness you see need the Q4 or or strength relatively between those kind of product categories.

好的，太好了。我想接著第二部分，關於您認為第四季度產品類別中存在的弱點或相對優勢，您還有什麼其他看法嗎？

I think Q4 is seasonally a little weaker than Q3, and it's typically in food service, just the season the summer season is over, so we're expecting a little bit of seasonality decline as we head into Q4, and I think as Sherry mentioned, we'll also see a few percentage points less of production as we head into Q4 versus Q3 that that will have some absorption.

我認為第四季在季節性上比第三季略弱，而且通常來說，餐飲服務業的夏季旺季已經結束，所以我們預計進入第四季後季節性下滑會比較明顯。而且我認為，正如雪莉所提到的，第四季的產量也會比第三季減少幾個百分點，但這部分缺口將會被市場消化。

Absorption impact and Matt, as we as we stated in the last earnings call, absorption is a meaningful component of our P&L and you know if you do the math, it could be upwards of $500 a ton of absorption with production changes. So I think that's part of that's part of the reason why Q4 is flat versus Q3 is I think it's we'll see some impact of absorption.

吸收影響，馬特，正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所說，吸收是我們損益表的重要組成部分，你知道，如果你計算一下，隨著生產的變化，每噸吸收成本可能高達 500 美元。所以我認為這是第四季業績與第三季相比持平的部分原因，我認為我們會看到吸收效應的影響。

Okay, and just kind of pulling on that string, it's a fairly large range for guidance on Q4, considering you're through the maintenance. Is it mostly seasonality of demand and maybe energy costs that would take you to the top of the bottom of that range? Maybe even see any risks around, I guess the government shutdown and the supplemental nutrition assistance program. What else would you be watching for in terms of variability within that range?

好的，我們不妨就此展開討論，考慮到你們已經完成了維護工作，第四季度的業績指引範圍相當大。這主要是由於需求季節性波動以及能源成本變化所導致的嗎？或許也可以關註一下政府停擺和補充營養援助計畫等方面的風險。除此之外，您還會關注哪些其他可能影響該範圍的因素？

I think energy's right. We did take in some energy into Q4 versus Q3, but it's very much weather dependent, and some of our one of our mills at least is more susceptible to bigger swings in energy prices than the other mills just due to its location.

我認為能源的說法是對的。與第三季相比，我們第四季確實增加了一些能源消耗，但這很大程度上取決於天氣，而且至少我們的一家工廠由於地理位置的原因，比其他工廠更容易受到能源價格大幅波動的影響。

So I think part of it is energy, part of it is just production, 1,000 tons of production is worth upwards of $500,000. And for those folks that spend time in paper mills know that 1,000 tons plus or minus in a given in a given week or given month is a rounding error, but it has a pretty substantial impact on our earnings. So I think it's the nature of being a paper board focused business with three mills.

所以我認為一部分是能源，一部分是生產，1000噸的產量價值超過50萬美元。那些在造紙廠工作過的人都知道，在特定的一周或一個月內，1000噸的產量誤差只是四捨五入的誤差，但它對我們的收入卻有著相當大的影響。所以我認為這是擁有三家造紙廠、專注於紙板生產的企業的必然結果。

Okay, fair enough. And last for me, just the, working capital improvements of $20 million to $26 million, can you just share a little bit more about how you plan to achieve that? It sounds like it's mostly inventory, but also, the timing of when you'd expect to reach that target. Thanks.

好吧，這說得有道理。最後，關於2000萬至2600萬美元的營運資金改善計劃，您能否詳細介紹一下您計劃如何實現這一目標？聽起來主要涉及庫存，但也包括預計何時達到目標的時間。謝謝。

Yeah, it will be primarily an inventory. I think you'll see a start to work those pieces down in the second half of next year, so that would be the timing of when I would be looking to achieve those estimates.

是的，主要目的是清點庫存。我認為明年下半年就會開始著手解決這些問題，所以那也是我預計要達成這些預估目標的時間。

And I think back-to-back to the production comment, this year I think we probably built a little bit of inventory and we'll be reducing inventory next year to free up some working capital so there will be a tradeoff between fixed cost absorption and just cash coming off the balance sheet. So, there'll be some trade off as we head into next year. We'll provide a bit more context on this in the coming quarters.

我認為，就生產方面而言，今年我們可能累積了一些庫存，明年我們將減少庫存以釋放一些營運資金，因此在固定成本吸收和資產負債表上的現金流之間將存在權衡。所以，進入明年，我們將面臨一些權衡取捨。我們將在接下來的幾個季度中提供更多相關背景資訊。

Okay, thanks very much for the help. I'll turn it back.

好的，非常感謝您的幫忙。我會把它轉回去。

Alright, thanks Matt. (Operator Instructions)

好的，謝謝馬特。 （操作說明）

All right, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's call. Thank you so much for joining us today, and you may now disconnect. (video playing)

好了，女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝各位的參與，現在可以掛斷電話了。 （影片播放）