Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Clearwater Paper second-quarter 2025 earnings call.

（音訊進行中）今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Clearwater Paper 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Sloan Bohlen, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

謝謝。現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係部的 Sloan Bohlen。請繼續。

Thank you, Danica, and thank you all for joining Clearwater Paper's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Arsen Kitch, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sherri Baker, senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，丹妮卡，也謝謝大家參加 Clearwater Paper 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Arsen Kitch 和資深副總裁兼財務長 Sherri Baker。

Financial results for the second quarter of 2025 are released shortly after today's market close. You will find a presentation of supplemental information, including a slide providing the company's current outlook posted on the Investor Relations page of our website at clearwaterpaper.com.

2025 年第二季的財務業績將於今天收盤後不久公佈。您可以在我們網站 clearwaterpaper.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到補充資訊的介紹，其中包括一張提供公司當前前景的幻燈片。

Additionally, we will be hosting or we will be providing certain non-GAAP financial information in this afternoon's discussion. Reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release and in the supplemental information provided on our website.

此外，我們將在今天下午的討論中主持或提供某些非 GAAP 財務資訊。非 GAAP 資訊與可比較 GAAP 資訊的對帳包含在新聞稿和我們網站上提供的補充資訊中。

Please note slide 2 of our supplemental information covering forward-looking statements. Rather than reading this slide, we will incorporate it by reference into our prepared remarks.

請注意我們補充資料的第 2 張投影片，其中涵蓋了前瞻性陳述。我們不會閱讀這張投影片，而是將其作為參考納入我們準備好的發言中。

And with that, let me turn the call over to Arsen.

現在，讓我把電話轉給阿森。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. We delivered a strong second quarter that was in line with our expectation. This was driven by higher production volumes, increased shipments, and continued benefits from our fixed cost reduction efforts.

下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我們第二季的業績表現強勁，符合我們的預期。這是由於產量增加、出貨量增加以及我們努力降低固定成本的持續效益。

Let me share a few highlights before diving into industry conditions and our strategic initiatives. We delivered $40 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, which was right in the middle of our guidance range of $35 million to 45 million. Our net sales were at $392 million, up 14% versus prior year, primarily driven by the Augusta acquisition and partly offset by lower market-driven pricing.

在深入探討產業狀況和我們的策略舉措之前，讓我先分享一些亮點。我們第二季的調整後 EBITDA 為 4000 萬美元，正好處於我們 3500 萬至 4500 萬美元的指導範圍的中間。我們的淨銷售額為 3.92 億美元，比上年增長 14%，主要得益於對奧古斯塔的收購，但部分被較低的市場驅動定價所抵消。

Net sales were also up 4% versus the first quarter of this year, primarily driven by increased shipments in our food service business. Pricing remained relatively stable versus the first quarter, but was down approximately 3% versus prior year, reflecting broader market trends.

淨銷售額也比今年第一季成長了 4%，這主要得益於食品服務業務出貨量的增加。與第一季相比，價格保持相對穩定，但與去年同期相比下降了約 3%，反映了更廣泛的市場趨勢。

We successfully completed the planned major maintenance outage at our Cypress Bend, Arkansas mill at a cost of approximately $9 million, which was in line with our estimates. As part of this outage, we completed the installation of a new emissions control device, replacing the original piece of equipment which was installed in the 1970s.

我們成功完成了位於阿肯色州賽普拉斯本德的工廠計劃中的重大維護停工，耗資約 900 萬美元，符合我們的預期。作為此次停運的一部分，我們完成了新排放控制裝置的安裝，以取代 20 世紀 70 年代安裝的原有設備。

This was a large capital project with a total cost of nearly $45 million. We continue to capture benefits from our fixed cost reduction efforts and are on track to deliver a $30 million to $40 million reduction this year versus 2024.

這是一個大型資本項目，總成本近 4500 萬美元。我們繼續從降低固定成本的努力中獲益，並有望在今年（與 2024 年相比）實現 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元的削減。

SG&A expenses were down nearly 14% versus last year to 6.7% of net sales within our target range of 6% to 7%. This was driven by our cost reduction initiatives and the completion of the Augusta integration. And finally, we repurchased approximately $4 million of outstanding shares for a total of $15 million since the beginning of this year and $18 million since the new authorization in November of last year.

銷售、一般及行政費用較去年同期下降近 14%，至淨銷售額的 6.7%，處於我們 6% 至 7% 的目標範圍內。這是由我們的成本削減措施和奧古斯塔整合的完成所推動的。最後，我們回購了價值約 400 萬美元的流通股，自今年年初以來共回購 1,500 萬美元，自去年 11 月獲得新授權以來共回購 1,800 萬美元。

Our team is doing a great job navigating challenging industry conditions by focusing on items within our control, namely driving operational execution, reducing cost, and defending our market position. We believe that this discipline will translate to sustained improvements in performance and higher margins upon a recovery in our industry cycle.

我們的團隊透過專注於我們控制範圍內的項目，即推動營運執行、降低成本和捍衛我們的市場地位，出色地應對了充滿挑戰的行業環境。我們相信，隨著產業週期的復甦，這項紀律將轉化為業績的持續改善和更高的利潤率。

Next, I'd like to provide some commentary on broader industry conditions. At a macro level, industry shipments of SBS slowed in Q2, decreasing by 4.6% versus the prior year and by 3.4% versus the first quarter based on AF&PA data.

接下來，我想就更廣泛的行業狀況發表一些評論。從宏觀層面來看，根據 AF&PA 的數據，第二季 SBS 產業出貨量放緩，年減 4.6%，季減 3.4%。

While shipments decreased, backlogs increased by 5% versus prior year and 14.2% versus the first quarter. These mixed demand signals are reflective of broader economic uncertainty that is also impacting other industry segments.

雖然出貨量有所下降，但積壓訂單量較上年同期增加了 5%，較第一季增加了 14.2%。這些混合的需求訊號反映了更廣泛的經濟不確定性，也影響著其他產業領域。

Now let's turn to supply. Industry utilization rates fell to 83.1% in the second quarter versus 84.7% in the first quarter based on the latest AF&PA data. This likely reflects the startup of new capacity in the second quarter by a competitor. We expect SBS industry utilization rates to remain well below historical norms in the coming quarters as this new capacity ramps up. As a reminder, we believe that in a balanced supply and demand environment, utilization rates should be between 90% and 95%.

現在讓我們來談談供應。根據最新的 AF&PA 數據，第二季產業利用率從第一季的 84.7% 下降至 83.1%。這可能反映了競爭對手在第二季啟動了新產能。我們預計，隨著新產能的增加，未來幾季 SBS 產業的利用率仍將遠低於歷史正常水準。提醒一下，我們認為在供需平衡的環境下，利用率應該在 90% 到 95% 之間。

While demand trends are mixed, we believe that we're in an industry down cycle primarily driven by oversupply. It is difficult to predict when and how the industry will return to a mid-cycle utilization level.

雖然需求趨勢好壞參半，但我們認為我們正處於一個主要由供應過剩驅動的產業下行週期。很難預測該行業何時以及如何恢復到中期利用率水準。

We believe that there are a few different ways that industry utilization rates can improve in the medium to long term. First, RISI is projecting that net SBS capacity in the US will decrease by approximately 350,000 tons in 2026 versus 2025, which would drive utilization rates to around 91%. This would move the industry back into a more balanced mid-cycle position.

我們認為，從中長期來看，有幾種不同的方法可以提高產業利用率。首先，RISI 預測，2026 年美國 SBS 淨產能將比 2025 年減少約 35 萬噸，利用率將降至 91% 左右。這將使該行業回到更平衡的中期週期位置。

Second, proposed tariffs, trade investigations, and anti-dumping actions may also impact the viability of imports in our market. We estimate that approximately 700,000 to 800,000 tons of bleached paperboard and finished goods are imported to the US annually. The shift to domestic supply by US customers could improve industry operating rates.

其次，擬議的關稅、貿易調查和反傾銷行動也可能影響我們市場進口的可行性。我們估計美國每年進口約70萬至80萬噸漂白紙板和成品。美國客戶轉向國內供應可能提高行業開工率。

We also believe that there's some swing SBS capacity in North America that can move to other grades, which could further alleviate the oversupply position that our industry is facing. A combination of these three variables would help return the industry to more sustainable operating rates and lead to a margin recovery.

我們也認為，北美的一些 SBS 產能可以轉向其他等級，這可以進一步緩解我們行業面臨的供應過剩狀況。這三個變數的結合將有助於產業恢復更永續的營運率並實現利潤率的回升。

Finally, we believe that current demand softness is temporary and not a permanent or secular decline. As a reminder, we're targeting 13% to 14% adjusted EBITDA margins across the cycle, which assumes that industry utilization rates recover to 90% to 95%. This would result in more than 1.3 million tons of paperboard volume, which we estimate would translate into approximately $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion of revenue, around $250 million of adjusted EBITDA, and more than $100 million of free cash flow per year.

最後，我們認為當前的需求疲軟是暫時的，而不是永久性或長期性的下降。提醒一下，我們的目標是整個週期內調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 13% 至 14%，這假設產業利用率恢復到 90% 至 95%。這將產生超過 130 萬噸的紙板產量，我們估計這將轉化為約 18 億至 19 億美元的收入、約 2.5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 以及每年超過 1 億美元的自由現金流。

Let me take a moment to illustrate the operating and price leverage that exists in our system. 100,000-ton increase in sales and production volumes would result in more than $150 million of adjusted contribution margin with improved cost absorption. A modest $50 per ton upward price movement would result in more than $60 million of additional adjusted EBITDA.

讓我花一點時間來說明我們系統中存在的營運和價格槓桿。銷售量和產量增加 10 萬噸將帶來超過 1.5 億美元的調整後貢獻利潤，同時成本吸收也會改善。每噸價格小幅上漲 50 美元將帶來超過 6,000 萬美元的額外調整後 EBITDA。

Let's shift gears and discuss our strategic initiatives and potential next steps. As we mentioned previously, we're focused on expanding our product offering to better serve our converter customers. Our goal is to continue to build on our position as a premier independent supplier of paperboard packaging products in North America.

讓我們換個話題，討論一下我們的策略舉措和潛在的後續步驟。正如我們之前提到的，我們專注於擴大我們的產品範圍，以便更好地服務我們的轉換器客戶。我們的目標是繼續鞏固我們作為北美首屈一指的紙板包裝產品獨立供應商的地位。

Today, we are the third largest producer of paperboard in North America, representing approximately 14% of a 10-million-ton market. We are focused on SBS, or bleach paper board, which makes up approximately half of the total paperboard market.

如今，我們是北美第三大紙板生產商，佔 1,000 萬噸市場的約 14%。我們專注於 SBS 或漂白紙板，它約佔整個紙板市場的一半。

We are looking at opportunities to expand into CUK or unbleached paperboard and CRB or recycled paperboard. We believe that today, independent converters are underserved in these substrates by the large integrated players. We have an opening to participate in one share in these parts of the market due to our lack of channel conflict and our history of prioritizing independent converters.

我們正在尋找機會擴展到 CUK 或未漂白紙板和 CRB 或再生紙板。我們認為，目前，大型綜合企​​業在這些基板方面對獨立轉換器的服務不足。由於我們不存在通路衝突，並且我們歷來優先考慮獨立轉換器，因此我們有機會參與這些市場的份額。

Let me get a bit more specific on the work that we're doing. We're nearing completion of market and engineering studies on the potential entry into CUK. I expect for us to make a decision regarding this potential investment by year end. At this stage, we're focused on creating CUK capability on one of our existing SBS machines and not expanding our overall capacity.

讓我更具體地介紹一下我們正在做的工作。我們即將完成有關進入 CUK 的市場和工程研究。我希望我們能在年底前就這項潛在投資做出決定。在這個階段，我們專注於在我們現有的一台 SBS 機器上創建 CUK 能力，而不是擴大我們的整體產能。

This would enable us to swing production between high-quality SBS and CUK on an existing machine based on market demand. This capability would also allow us to better serve our customers' needs, optimize our network, and improve utilization across all our assets. While capital estimates have not been finalized, we expect this investment would be in the $50 million range and take around 18 months to complete.

這將使我們能夠根據市場需求在現有機器上在高品質 SBS 和 CUK 之間切換生產。這種能力也能讓我們更能滿足客戶的需求，優化我們的網絡，並提高所有資產的使用率。雖然資本估算尚未最終確定，但我們預計這項投資將在 5,000 萬美元左右，大約需要 18 個月才能完成。

In addition to adding CUK capabilities to an existing asset, we're also considering additional options to broaden our product offering, including entry to CRV. This would likely require an acquisition, either of existing CRB capacity or of a good candidate for a conversion.

除了將 CUK 功能添加到現有資產之外，我們還在考慮其他選項來擴大我們的產品範圍，包括進入 CRV。這可能需要收購現有的 CRB 產能或適合轉換的候選產能。

In addition to our focus on these additional substrates, we're continuing to make progress on developing compostable and lightweight products. We received a BPI compostable certification at our Lewiston and Cypress Bend mills that cover most of our folding carton and food service grades.

除了關注這些額外的基質之外，我們還在繼續開發可堆肥和輕質產品方面取得進展。我們在劉易斯頓和賽普拉斯本德的工廠獲得了 BPI 可堆肥認證，涵蓋了我們的大部分折疊紙盒和食品服務等級。

In addition, we expect to have a lightweight offering in the market by 2026. We remain optimistic on the long-term prospects of paperboard packaging and our position as a premier supplier of these products to North American converters.

此外，我們預計到 2026 年將在市場上推出輕量級產品。我們對紙板包裝的長期前景以及我們作為北美加工商主要產品供應商的地位仍然持樂觀態度。

With that, let me turn the call over to Sherri to review our results in more detail.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給謝裡，讓她更詳細地回顧我們的結果。

Thank you, Arsen. As we mentioned, we had a strong quarter with consolidated net income from continuing operations of $4 million or $0.22 per diluted share. At the top line, we achieved net sales of $392 million for the quarter, which represents a 4% increase compared to the first quarter of this year and a 14% increase compared to the second quarter of last year. This was driven by contributions from our Augusta acquisition, growth with existing and new customers, partly offset by lower market-driven SBS pricing.

謝謝你，阿森。正如我們所提到的，我們本季業績表現強勁，持續經營綜合淨收入為 400 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.22 美元。本季我們的淨銷售額達到 3.92 億美元，比今年第一季成長 4%，比去年第二季成長 14%。這是由我們對奧古斯塔的收購、現有客戶和新客戶的成長所推動的，但部分被市場驅動的 SBS 定價降低所抵消。

As to Augusta, this will be the last quarter where year-over-year comparisons are impacted by the timing of our acquisition. As a reminder, we completed the Augusta acquisition on May 1, 2024.

對奧古斯塔來說，這將是我們收購時機對年比影響的最後一季。提醒一下，我們在 2024 年 5 月 1 日完成了對奧古斯塔的收購。

Moving to adjusted EBITDA, we delivered $40 million, which was at the midpoint of our guidance range of $35 million to $45 million. This was up substantially compared to a negative $8.6 million of adjusted EBITDA last year. The resulting adjusted EBITDA margin was 10.2% in the quarter. Improved cost performance and lower major maintenance expenses more than offset lower pricing and higher input cost.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 4000 萬美元，處於我們 3500 萬美元至 4500 萬美元指導範圍的中間值。與去年調整後的 EBITDA 負 860 萬美元相比，這一數字大幅上升。本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 10.2%。成本績效的提高和主要維護費用的降低足以抵消較低的定價和較高的投入成本。

We are well on track to deliver the $30 million to $40 million of cost savings in 2025 as outlined earlier this year. As part of those efforts, we reduced our Q2 SG&A as a percent of net sales to 6.7% compared to 8.8% a year ago. We maintain our view that these efforts are sustainable and can produce annualized savings in the range of $40 million to $50 million. These efforts, along with the cost and price leverage that exists in our business, drive our conviction and our long-term adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow outlook.

正如今年稍早所概述的，我們預計在 2025 年實現 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元的成本節約目標。作為這些努力的一部分，我們將第二季銷售、一般及行政費用佔淨銷售額的百分比從一年前的 8.8% 降至 6.7%。我們仍然認為，這些努力是可持續的，並且可以產生每年 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的節省。這些努力，加上我們業務中存在的成本和價格槓桿，推動了我們的信念以及長期調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流前景。

Shifting now to our balance sheet and capital allocation. Excluding our cash tax payment of $57 million related to 2024, in Q2, we drove approximately $30 million in operating cash flow, which was largely offset by capital spend as part of our projected $80 million to $90 million annual CapEx guidance.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表和資本配置。不包括與 2024 年相關的 5700 萬美元現金稅款，在第二季度，我們實現了約 3000 萬美元的經營現金流，但這很大程度上被資本支出所抵消，這是我們預計的 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元年度資本支出指導的一部分。

In the quarter, we continue to execute against our share buyback authorization of $100 million. We repurchased $4 million of shares in Q2 and have repurchased $18 million to date against the full authorization. We view share buybacks as a sound opportunistic investment at times when we believe our shares are undervalued and we are generating sufficient free cash flows. We do not plan to use debt to fund these buybacks because maintaining a strong balance sheet continues to be a top priority.

本季度，我們繼續執行 1 億美元的股票回購授權。我們在第二季回購了價值 400 萬美元的股票，迄今已按全部授權回購了 1,800 萬美元。當我們認為我們的股票被低估並且我們正在產生足夠的自由現金流時，我們將股票回購視為合理的機會投資。我們不打算使用債務來為這些回購提供資金，因為維持強勁的資產負債表仍然是首要任務。

Given the nearly $40 million of planned major maintenance costs that we are anticipating in the second half of this year, continued investments into our assets, it is unlikely that we will generate sufficient free cash flows to fund material share repurchases for the balance of the year.

鑑於我們預計今年下半年將有近 4000 萬美元的計劃重大維護成本，以及對我們資產的持續投資，我們不太可能產生足夠的自由現金流來為今年餘下時間的重大股票回購提供資金。

I will close my remarks with an update on our view for 2025, including our forecast assumptions for the third quarter. We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $10 million to $20 million based on the following assumptions. First, we expect flat paperboard shipments as compared to the second quarter of 2025. Second, we expect that our Lewiston major maintenance outage will have a direct cost impact of $23 million to $25 million.

最後，我將介紹我們對 2025 年的看法，包括我們對第三季的預測假設。根據以下假設，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 1000 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間。首先，我們預期紙板出貨量與 2025 年第二季相比持平。其次，我們預期劉易斯頓重大維修停工將造成 2,300 萬至 2,500 萬美元的直接成本影響。

In addition, due to the outage, we will see approximately 5% lower product production volumes versus the first quarter resulting in lower cost absorption. We expect to see similar benefits from our cost reduction spend that we saw in Q2.

此外，由於停電，我們的產品產量將比第一季下降約 5%，從而導致成本吸收下降。我們預計，從成本削減支出中獲得的收益將與第二季類似。

For the full year 2025, our key assumptions remain largely unchanged. We believe that our demand will be stable and recovering, but utilization rates will continue to be in the mid 80% range. We expect revenue to be in the $1.5 million to $1.6 billion range. We are executing well against our fixed cost reduction plans and expect to deliver $30 million to $40 million of savings in 2025, resulting in a $40 million to $50 million annual run rate benefit.

對於 2025 年全年，我們的主要假設基本上保持不變。我們相信我們的需求將會穩定並復甦，但利用率將繼續保持在 80% 左右的範圍內。我們預計收入將在 150 萬美元至 16 億美元之間。我們正在順利執行固定成本削減計劃，預計到 2025 年將節省 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元，從而帶來 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的年運行率效益。

These cost savings will help to partly offset the expected price and cost inflation headwinds. We currently expect full-year tariff-related impact across our direct and indirect spend of approximately $1 million to $2 million.

這些成本節省將有助於部分抵銷預期的價格和成本通膨阻力。我們目前預計全年關稅相關影響將對我們的直接和間接支出產生約 100 萬至 200 萬美元的影響。

Our full-year expectation for capital expenditures (technical difficulty) which we have incurred $56 million year to date. Recall this year's CapEx program is approximately $10 million higher than normal due to carryover spend from large projects being completed this year. Lastly, as I detailed earlier, we expect $45 million to $50 million in direct major maintenance costs across our three-mill network.

我們全年的資本支出（技術難度）預期是，今年迄今為止我們已經花了 5,600 萬美元。回想一下，由於今年完成的大型專案的結轉支出，今年的資本支出計畫比正常水準高出約 1,000 萬美元。最後，正如我之前詳細說明的那樣，我們預計整個三個工廠網路的直接主要維護成本將達到 4500 萬至 5000 萬美元。

Let me now turn the call back over to Arsen for closing remarks.

現在，請允許我將電話轉回給阿森，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, Sherri. I'll summarize where we are today. We transformed Clearwater into a paperboard-focused company with two major strategic actions in 2024. We're now focused on strengthening our position as an independent supplier of paperboard packaging products to North American converters.

謝謝你，謝裡。我將總結我們今天的進展。2024 年，我們透過兩項重大策略行動將 Clearwater 轉型為專注於紙板的公司。我們現在致力於加強我們作為北美加工商紙板包裝產品獨立供應商的地位。

We're looking at opportunities to expand our product portfolio, which may include new applications for our existing paperboard as well as new substrates. We have a well-invested acid base and a strong balance sheet that will help us persevere through this part of the industry cycle. We remain optimistic about the medium- to long-term prospects for our industry and our company. And as a result, we expect strong margins and cash flows through the cycle and aim to strategically deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value.

我們正在尋找機會擴大我們的產品組合，其中可能包括我們現有紙板的新應用以及新的基材。我們擁有投資良好的基礎和強大的資產負債表，這將有助於我們度過產業週期的這個階段。我們對我們的行業和公司的中長期前景仍然持樂觀態度。因此，我們預計整個週期內利潤率和現金流將保持強勁，並致力於策略性地部署資本以創造長期股東價值。

Finally, I'd like to thank our people for their efforts to remain focused on operating safely and providing excellent service to our customers. I would also like to thank our customers for putting their trust in us and our shareholders for their continued interest.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工為安全營運和為客戶提供優質服務所做的努力。我還要感謝客戶對我們的信任以及股東對我們的持續關注。

With that, we'll open it up to your questions.

這樣，我們就可以回答您的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示） Matthew McKellar，RBC Capital Markets。

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions.

嗨，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。

Good afternoon, Matt.

下午好，馬特。

Just first here, it looks like you're expecting modest growth at an industry level in 2025, which I guess would imply a better back half for demand. Are you seeing that year-over-year improvement in demand in the market today and is the uptick in unmade NPS orders a signal of that?

首先，您似乎預計 2025 年行業水準將出現溫和成長，我猜這意味著下半年需求會更好。您是否看到當今市場需求年增，而未完成的 NPS 訂單的增加是否表明了這一點？

And then I guess more broadly, I guess the demand outlook has softened a little bit, your expectations around net imports seems to soften a little bit as well. Could you just walk us through what's changed around your outlook at an industry level since your last update? Thanks.

然後我想從更廣泛的角度來看，我認為需求前景已經減弱，你對淨進口的預期似乎也略有減弱。您能否向我們介紹一下自上次更新以來，您在產業層面的展望發生了哪些變化？謝謝。

That's a great question, Matt. So, I think we're getting mixed demand signals in Q2. So if you look at our data, our shipments, we're up by about 5% versus Q1 and our backlogs are stable. Industry shipments were down sequentially, and they were down year over year and they're down year to date, but backlogs are up 14% versus the first quarter. So a lot of mixed signals.

這是一個很好的問題，馬特。所以，我認為我們在第二季收到了混合的需求訊號。因此，如果您查看我們的數據，我們的出貨量與第一季相比成長了約 5%，而且我們的積壓訂單保持穩定。產業出貨量較上季下降，年減，年初至今也一直在下降，但積壓訂單量與第一季相比成長了 14%。因此有很多混合訊號。

What we are hearing from our customers is that there's there really isn't a serious demand issue. There's just some near-term economic uncertainty that's really hard to decipher.

我們從客戶那裡聽到的是，確實不存在嚴重的需求問題。只是近期存在一些難以解讀的經濟不確定性。

We're comfortable with where we are. I know some of the industry forecasts have come down a bit this year from, call it, maybe mid-single digits to low single digits, maybe even below 1%. But it's hard for me to point to a specific driver of these forecast changes.

我們對現狀感到滿意。我知道今年一些行業的預測有所下降，可能是從中等個位數下降到低個位數，甚至可能低於 1%。但我很難指出這些預測變化的具體驅動因素。

From an import perspective, as we mentioned before, our industry imports about 500,000 or 600,000 tons of bleach paperboard and probably another couple of hundred tons of finished goods and exports over 800,000 tons.

從進口角度來看，正如我們之前提到的，我們的產業進口約50萬或60萬噸漂白紙板，可能還進口幾百噸成品，出口超過80萬噸。

I think there is a scenario where these tariffs and trade investigations and anti-dumping duties could impact that those imports -- could impact those 700,000 or 800,000 tons of imports and could drive up domestic capacity utilization.

我認為，這些關稅、貿易調查和反傾銷稅可能會影響這些進口——可能會影響 70 萬或 80 萬噸的進口，並可能推高國內產能利用率。

Are you at all surprised that imports haven't dropped a little further just given how much change in FX we've seen over the past while here, probably in particular?

考慮到我們過去看到的外匯變化有多大，您是否對進口量沒有進一步下降感到驚訝？

So that's -- so tariffs and exchanges. So it's hard to tell what's happening in those markets. It represents, call it, 10%, and we're just talking bleached paperboard imports. It's hard to know what the importers are thinking and what their plans are. But I do think between tariffs and an exchange rate and unfavorable exchange rate for them, I'd be surprised if there's no impact.

這就是——關稅和匯率。因此很難判斷這些市場正在發生什麼。它代表了 10%，我們談論的是漂白紙板的進口。很難知道進口商在想什麼以及他們的計劃是什麼。但我確實認為，關稅和匯率以及對他們不利的匯率之間沒有影響，我會感到驚訝。

Thanks, that's fair. I guess next for me, just thinking sequentially, you did $40 million in Q2 for EBITDA, maintenance costs at Lewiston, maybe $25 million, call it. That bridges you to the midpoint of the range. You, of course, would have had -- I think it was $9 million you called out maintenance costs at Cypress Bend in Q2. I guess they would have thought you'd have a little bit more benefit from cost reduction efforts to the Q3 as well.

謝謝，這很公平。我想接下來，按順序想想，你在第二季的 EBITDA 為 4000 萬美元，而劉易斯頓的維護成本大概是 2500 萬美元。這將幫助您達到範圍的中間點。當然，你會有——我認為你在第二季度宣布的 Cypress Bend 的維護成本是 900 萬美元。我想他們也會認為你從第三季的成本削減努力中獲得更多的好處。

So just thinking about that Q3 guide, are there other moving parts here just that lower production and fixed cost absorption issue you called out that are in the $23 million to $25 million of costs quoted for Lewiston? Or what are the other kind of incremental pressures here on either price or cost that is sort of embedded in your outlook? Thanks.

那麼，僅考慮一下第三季度指南，這裡是否還有其他變動因素，例如您提到的產量降低和固定成本吸收問題，而這些問題都包含在劉易斯頓報價的 2300 萬至 2500 萬美元成本中？或者，您認為價格或成本方面還有哪些其他增量壓力？謝謝。

Yeah, that's -- you've got it exactly right. So you've got roughly, call it, $15 million of sequential increase in outage expense. We did not call out the absorption impact, but we expect to see about 5% lower production volume. So that would be the other piece that you would have to factor in. And then the third piece is a modest amount of tariff impact. So those would be the three big pieces.

是的，你說得完全正確。因此，停電費用大約連續增加了 1500 萬美元。我們沒有透露吸收的影響，但我們預計產量將下降約 5%。所以這是你必須考慮的另一個因素。第三部分是適度的關稅影響。這就是三大塊。

Okay. And aside from tariffs, really nothing else around kind of incremental pressure on price or other kind of costs that's worth calling out here?

好的。除了關稅之外，真的沒有其他值得一提的價格或其他成本的增量壓力嗎？

Yeah, from a price from a price perspective, we saw stable Q1 to Q2 price. We tend not to comment on future-looking prices.

是的，從價格角度來看，我們看到第一季至第二季的價格穩定。我們傾向於不對未來的價格發表評論。

Okay. How do you think about the most important swing factors that could either take you to the top or bottom end of that range? Is that mostly Lewiston startup, or are there other factors that you'd be looking to there?

好的。您如何看待可能將您帶入該範圍頂端或底端的最重要的波動因素？這主要是劉易斯頓的初創企業嗎，還是還有其他因素需要考慮？

I think the Lewiston outage startup, this is a large outage that frankly last year cost us more than we expected. So there's a lot of focus on executing that outage well and starting up well. Demand, where we're counting on demand being stable, there's -- I don't see any reason why that would not be the case. And of course we're still watching the impact of the new capacity coming online from a competitor.

我認為劉易斯頓停電事件是大規模停電，坦白說，去年的損失超出了我們的預期。因此，我們非常重視如何順利執行停電和啟動。需求，我們指望需求保持穩定，我看不出有任何理由會不這樣。當然，我們仍在關注競爭對手新產能的影響。

Great. And then last for me, you're guiding the flat shipment sequentially, but still capacity utilization of around 85% for 2025. I guess based on year-to-date results in that guide, is it fair for us to assume the shipments could be up a little bit sequentially in Q4?

偉大的。最後，您預計出貨量將保持平穩，但 2025 年的產能利用率仍將在 85% 左右。我想，根據該指南中年初至今的結果，我們是否可以合理地假設第四季度的出貨量可能會較上季略有上升？

Yes. I think if you look at our capacity utilization, we have two major outages in Q3 and Q4, so I think that drives down capacity utilization. We built some inventories, as you can tell from our balance sheet, in preparation for the Lewiston outage.

是的。我認為，如果你看一下我們的產能利用率，我們會發現我們在第三季和第四季發生了兩次重大停電，所以我認為這會降低產能利用率。從我們的資產負債表中可以看出，我們建立了一些庫存，為劉易斯頓停電做好準備。

So Q2 to Q3, we're expecting flat. Q4, sometimes there's some seasonality impact, maybe slightly lower shipments, but that's varied over the years.

因此，我們預計第二季至第三季將持平。Q4，有時會受到一些季節性影響，出貨量可能會略有下降，但多年來情況有所不同。

Okay, thanks very much for all the color. I'll turn it back.

好的，非常感謝你提供的所有顏色。我會把它轉回去。

Thank you, Matt.

謝謝你，馬特。

Thank you, everyone. That concludes our Q&A. I appreciate you all joining. You may now disconnect.

謝謝大家。我們的問答到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。