(CLW) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Clearwater Paper Corporation's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Sloan Bohlen, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Clearwater Paper Corporation 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在將會議轉交給投資者關係部門的 Sloan Bohlen。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Clearwater Paper's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Arsen Kitch, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Murphy, Chief Financial Officer. Financial results for the first quarter of 2023 were released shortly after today's market close, along with the filing of our 10-Q. You will find a presentation of supplemental information, including a slide providing the company's current outlook posted on the Investor Relations page of our website at clearwaterpaper.com.

謝謝你，莎拉。下午好，感謝您參加 Clearwater Paper 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼首席執行官 Arsen Kitch；和首席財務官邁克·墨菲。今天收盤後不久，我們發布了 2023 年第一季度的財務業績以及我們提交的 10 季度財報。您將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面（clearwaterpaper.com）上找到補充信息的演示，包括提供公司當前前景的幻燈片。

Additionally, we will be providing certain non-GAAP information in this afternoon's discussion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release and in the supplemental information provided on our website. Please note Slide 2 of our supplemental information covering forward-looking statements. Rather than rereading this slide, we are going to incorporate it by reference into our prepared remarks.

此外，我們將在今天下午的討論中提供某些非公認會計準則信息。非公認會計原則信息與可比公認會計原則信息的調節包含在新聞稿和我們網站上提供的補充信息中。請注意我們包含前瞻性陳述的補充信息的幻燈片 2。我們不會重新閱讀這張幻燈片，而是將其引用到我們準備好的評論中。

With that, let me turn the call over to Arsen.

現在，讓我把電話轉給阿爾森。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. Now please turn to Slide 3. We had a solid first quarter in 2023 with better results as compared to the first quarter of 2022. We reported net sales of $525 million and adjusted EBITDA of $66 million. Let me share a few highlights. Prices increased in both paperboard and tissue as compared to the first quarter of 2022. Private branded tissue share strengthened as consumers sought to offset inflation. Paperboard demand softened as customers manage down their inventories.

下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。現在請轉向幻燈片 3。與 2022 年第一季度相比，我們在 2023 年第一季度表現強勁，業績更好。我們報告的淨銷售額為 5.25 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 6600 萬美元。讓我分享一些亮點。與 2022 年第一季度相比，紙板和生活用紙的價格均有所上漲。隨著消費者尋求抵消通脹，自有品牌生活用紙的份額有所增強。隨著客戶減少庫存，紙板需求疲軟。

We resolved the operational issues that we experienced in the fourth quarter of last year. Inflation moderated as compared to the fourth quarter, particularly in pulp, energy and transportation. And finally, we repurchased $1.7 million of shares during the quarter and have $23 million remaining on our buyback authorization.

我們解決了去年第四季度遇到的運營問題。與第四季度相比，通貨膨脹有所放緩，特別是在紙漿、能源和運輸領域。最後，我們在本季度回購了 170 萬美元的股票，回購授權剩餘 2300 萬美元。

With that, let's discuss some additional details about both of our businesses. Let's start on Slide 4 with a few comments on our paperboard business. In 2021 and 2022, the industry experienced high operating rates with strong demand. As a result, RISI reported price increases for the U.S. market that totaled $250 per ton in 2022. Based on our previously announced price increases, we expect year-over-year improvements to carry into 2023.

接下來，我們來討論一下有關我們兩家公司的一些其他細節。讓我們從幻燈片 4 開始，對我們的紙板業務進行一些評論。 2021年和2022年，行業開工率高，需求旺盛。因此，RISI 報告稱，2022 年美國市場的價格上漲總計為每噸 250 美元。根據我們之前宣布的價格上漲，我們預計 2023 年將實現同比上漲。

As previously noted, we experienced a softening in paperboard demand late in the fourth quarter. That trend continued in the first quarter of 2023 and into April. We believe that this is due to customers reducing their inventories as well as a slowdown in consumer spending. Based on the most recent AF&PA data, the softening has resulted in lower backlogs and operating rates across the industry. Our backlog also fell, and our inventories increased in the first quarter.

如前所述，我們在第四季度末經歷了紙板需求的疲軟。這一趨勢在 2023 年第一季度持續到 4 月份。我們認為這是由於客戶減少庫存以及消費者支出放緩所致。根據最新的 AF&PA 數據，疲軟導致整個行業的積壓訂單和開工率下降。我們的積壓訂單也有所下降，第一季度的庫存有所增加。

As a result, we reduced production in the second quarter to manage our inventory levels. It is our intent to balance supply and demand for the remainder of the year and normalize inventory levels. While we're experiencing a softening in demand, we continue to believe that paperboard is economically resilient, given the end use of our products. Our portfolio skews more heavily towards consumer applications such as food packaging, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics.

因此，我們在第二季度減少了產量以管理庫存水平。我們的目的是在今年剩餘時間內平衡供需並使庫存水平正常化。雖然我們的需求正在疲軟，但考慮到我們產品的最終用途，我們仍然相信紙板具有經濟彈性。我們的產品組合更傾向於食品包裝、藥品和化妝品等消費應用。

In addition, we expect the shift to paper-based products to continue, and we're optimistic that demand for paperboard will improve in the second half of this year. Operationally, our performance improved in the first quarter, with a major maintenance outage and operational issues experienced in the fourth quarter now behind us.

此外，我們預計向紙質產品的轉變將繼續，並且我們樂觀地認為今年下半年紙板的需求將有所改善。在運營方面，我們的業績在第一季度有所改善，第四季度經歷的重大維護中斷和運營問題現已成為過去。

Please turn to Slide 5 for additional comments on our tissue business. The underlying performance of the business was strong. We continue to see consumers shift their demand to private branded tissue products to help offset the impact of inflation. Private branded share of the market approached 35% in March based on IRI panel data. We shipped 12.7 million cases in the first quarter, which was 700,000 cases higher than the first quarter of 2022 and slightly lower than our fourth quarter shipments of 13 million cases.

請參閱幻燈片 5，了解有關我們的衛生紙業務的更多評論。該業務的基本表現強勁。我們繼續看到消費者將需求轉向自有品牌衛生紙產品，以幫助抵消通貨膨脹的影響。根據 IRI 面板數據，3 月份自有品牌的市場份額接近 35%。我們第一季度的出貨量為 1270 萬箱，比 2022 年第一季度增加了 70 萬箱，略低於第四季度的 1300 萬箱。

As we previously mentioned, cost inflation has outpaced price increases in our tissue business over the past 2 years, leading to margin compression. Our team has focused on recovering margins through cost reduction initiatives and implementing the previously announced price increases. As a result, we saw higher pricing in the first quarter and expect additional sequential price benefits in the second quarter.

正如我們之前提到的，過去兩年我們衛生紙業務的成本上漲速度超過了價格上漲速度，導致利潤率壓縮。我們的團隊致力於通過降低成本舉措和實施之前宣布的提價來恢復利潤。因此，我們在第一季度看到了更高的定價，並預計第二季度會出現額外的連續價格優勢。

With pulp prices and other input costs decreasing, we expect to see further margin recovery in the coming quarters. We are encouraged by the trends and expect a strengthening of our tissue business this year.

隨著紙漿價格和其他投入成本的下降，我們預計未來幾個季度的利潤率將進一步恢復。我們對這一趨勢感到鼓舞，並預計今年我們的衛生紙業務將得到加強。

I will now ask Mike to discuss our first quarter results in more detail.

我現在請邁克更詳細地討論我們第一季度的業績。

Thank you, Arsen. Please turn to Slide 6. The consolidated company summary income statement shows first quarter 2023 and 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, we recorded a net income of $24 million and net income per diluted share was $1.40 and adjusted net income per diluted share was $1.47. The corresponding segment results are on Slide 7. Slide 8 is a year-over-year segment income and adjusted EBITDA comparison for our Pulp and Paperboard business in the first quarter.

謝謝你，阿爾森。請參閱幻燈片 6。合併公司摘要損益表顯示 2023 年第一季度和 2022 年第一季度。2023 年第一季度，我們錄得淨利潤 2400 萬美元，稀釋每股淨利潤為 1.40 美元，調整後每股稀釋淨利潤為1.47 美元。相應的分部業績見幻燈片 7。幻燈片 8 是我們的紙漿和紙板業務第一季度的同比分部收入和調整後 EBITDA 比較。

We benefited from our previously announced price increases, which were partly offset by higher raw material costs, freight and labor inflation. Volumes were lower compared to last year as demand softened. You can also review a comparison of our first quarter 2023 performance relative to the fourth quarter on Slide 14.

我們受益於之前宣布的價格上漲，但原材料成本上漲、運費和勞動力通脹部分抵消了價格上漲。由於需求疲軟，銷量低於去年。您還可以在幻燈片 14 上查看 2023 年第一季度與第四季度業績的比較。

Please turn to Slide 9, where we provide a year-over-year comparison for our tissue business in the first quarter. In addition to the implemented price increases, we also realized some mix benefits. Our sales volumes of converted products were higher than last year as well. These benefits were largely offset by higher costs due to inflationary pressures.

請參閱幻燈片 9，其中我們提供了第一季度衛生紙業務的同比比較。除了實施價格上漲之外，我們還實現了一些混合效益。我們的改裝產品銷量也高於去年。這些好處在很大程度上被通脹壓力​​導致的成本上升所抵消。

You can review a comparison of our first quarter 2023 performance relative to the fourth quarter on Slide 15. Slide 10 outlines our capital structure. Liquidity was $288 million at the end of the first quarter, and we did not generate free cash flow during the quarter. This was due to typical large first quarter cash outflows, including semiannual cash interest payments on our bonds and annual incentive payouts as well as payments related to our fourth quarter major maintenance outage.

您可以在幻燈片 15 上查看我們 2023 年第一季度業績與第四季度的比較。幻燈片 10 概述了我們的資本結構。第一季度末的流動性為 2.88 億美元，本季度我們沒有產生自由現金流。這是由於第一季度典型的大量現金流出，包括我們債券的半年度現金利息支付和年度激勵支出以及與第四季度主要維護中斷相關的付款。

Our inventories also increased notably in Paperboard, which negatively impacted cash flows. We intend to manage our inventories by balancing supply with demand and expect net working capital to be a source of cash in the coming quarters by over $10 million. We also repurchased 51,000 shares at an average price of just above $34 per share for a total of $1.7 million in the quarter. We have approximately $23 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization and expect to continue buying back shares during the year.

我們的紙板庫存也顯著增加，這對現金流產生了負面影響。我們打算通過平衡供需來管理我們的庫存，並預計淨營運資本將成為未來幾個季度超過 1000 萬美元的現金來源。我們還以每股略高於 34 美元的平均價格回購了 51,000 股股票，本季度總計 170 萬美元。我們的股票回購授權剩餘約 2300 萬美元，預計年內將繼續回購股票。

Slide 11 provides a perspective on our second quarter 2023 outlook and building blocks for 2023 full year expectations. Our current expectations for the second quarter is adjusted EBITDA of $58 million to $68 million. That midpoint of the range is $63 million and assumes the following relative to the first quarter: margin improvement in tissue from previously announced price increases and lower input costs, lower Paperboard volumes as we balance our supply with demand and address inventory. The following are building blocks for '23 relative to '22. We believe that our operational results will improve by approximately $42 million in 2023, primarily due to lower major maintenance outage expenses and improved operating performance.

幻燈片 11 提供了我們對 2023 年第二季度展望的看法以及 2023 年全年預期的基礎。我們目前對第二季度調整後 EBITDA 的預期為 5800 萬美元至 6800 萬美元。該範圍的中點為 6300 萬美元，並假設相對於第一季度的情況如下：由於之前宣布的價格上漲和投入成本降低，衛生紙的利潤率有所提高，隨著我們平衡供應與需求並解決庫存問題，紙板產量下降。以下是 '23 相對於 '22 的構建塊。我們相信，到 2023 年，我們的運營業績將改善約 4200 萬美元，這主要是由於主要維護停電費用的降低和運營績效的改善。

As anticipated, we are seeing sequential quarterly declines in pulp prices. As a reminder, it takes us approximately 3 months to realize these benefits in our earnings. As a result, these decreases should be more beneficial in the second half of 2023 relative to the first half. Currently, the strength that we're seeing in tissue is mitigating some of the demand softness in paperboard. We expect another strong year overall, and we'll update you on our latest thinking in the coming quarters.

正如預期的那樣，我們看到紙漿價格連續季度下跌。提醒一下，我們大約需要 3 個月的時間才能在我們的收入中實現這些收益。因此，相對於上半年，這些下降在 2023 年下半年應該會更有利。目前，我們在紙巾中看到的強勢正在緩解紙板的部分需求疲軟。我們預計整體上又將是強勁的一年，我們將在未來幾個季度向您通報我們的最新想法。

We're also anticipating the following for 2023: interest expense between $27 million and $29 million, depreciation and amortization between $98 million and $101 million. On capital expenditures, we expect to spend $70 million to $80 million in 2023. Our Lewiston recovery boiler replacement project, which is estimated to require capital expenditure approaching $40 million, is expected to be completed in early 2024, concurrent with our planned major maintenance outage.

我們還預計 2023 年的情況如下：利息支出在 2700 萬美元到 2900 萬美元之間，折舊和攤銷在 9800 萬美元到 1.01 億美元之間。在資本支出方面，我們預計到 2023 年將花費 7000 萬至 8000 萬美元。我們的 Lewiston 回收鍋爐更換項目預計需要接近 4000 萬美元的資本支出，預計將於 2024 年初完成，與我們計劃的重大維護停運同時進行。

We spent $4 million in 2022 and expect to spend an additional $8 million of the estimated costs in 2023 on this project. In addition to the Lewiston project, we are also expecting to spend a total of approximately $45 million in capital on a planned precipitated replacement project to be installed at our Cypress Bend mill in 2025. This is an important emissions control device that is approaching the end of its useful life. Approximately $8 million of that spend is expected this year and is included in our total 2023 capital expectations.

2022 年，我們在該項目上花費了 400 萬美元，預計 2023 年將額外花費 800 萬美元。除了Lewiston項目外，我們還預計將花費總計約4500萬美元的資金用於計劃於2025年在我們的Cypress Bend工廠安裝的沉澱替代項目。這是一個重要的排放控制裝置，已接近尾聲其使用壽命。今年預計支出約 800 萬美元，並包含在我們 2023 年的總資本預期中。

Our effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be 25% to 26%. Based on current expectations for 2023, our cash tax payments are expected to be slightly higher than our effective tax estimates. This assumes that we will utilize our current rebates and refunds to largely offset some timing differences between book and tax depreciation, which is expected to cause our future cash tax rate to modestly exceed our effective tax rate.

我們全年的有效稅率預計為25%至26%。根據目前對 2023 年的預期，我們的現金納稅預計將略高於我們的有效稅收估計。假設我們將利用當前的回扣和退款來很大程度上抵消賬面折舊和稅收折舊之間的一些時間差異，這預計將導致我們未來的現金稅率略高於我們的有效稅率。

Let me turn the call back over to Arsen.

讓我把電話轉回給阿森。

Thanks, Mike. I want to spend a few minutes discussing our key priorities for shareholder value creation. As shown on Page 12, we have prioritized our capital allocation as follows. Our top priority is to sustain the competitiveness of our asset base. We believe this requires an average of $60 million to $70 million of capital expenditures annually, excluding large projects. We expect to invest above that target level in the near to medium term in projects such as the recovery boiler tube replacement in Lewiston and the precipitator replacement in Cypress Bend.

謝謝，邁克。我想花幾分鐘時間討論我們創造股東價值的關鍵優先事項。如第 12 頁所示，我們的資本配置優先順序如下。我們的首要任務是維持我們資產基礎的競爭力。我們認為，這每年平均需要 6000 萬至 7000 萬美元的資本支出，不包括大型項目。我們預計在中短期內對劉易斯頓回收鍋爐管道更換和賽普拉斯本德除塵器更換等項目的投資將高於目標水平。

Second, we intend to maintain a balance sheet that provides us with financial flexibility. While we have a target long-term leverage ratio around 2.5x, we may continue to deleverage further to create greater financial flexibility. A strong balance sheet provides us with the ability to take advantage of investment opportunities, including in a potential down cycle.

其次，我們打算維持一個為我們提供財務靈活性的資產負債表。雖然我們的長期槓桿率目標約為 2.5 倍，但我們可能會繼續進一步去槓桿化，以創造更大的財務靈活性。強大的資產負債表使我們能夠利用投資機會，包括在潛在的下行週期中。

Third, we will look at various opportunities to create value through investments and opportunistically returning capital to shareholders. We will evaluate value-accretive internal and external investments. Given the current business environment, we're likely to prioritize incremental cost reduction projects and add-on acquisitions versus large greenfield or brownfield capacity expansions. We will compare these potential investments relative to opportunistically returning capital to shareholders based upon our share price.

第三，我們將尋找各種機會，通過投資創造價值，並擇機向股東返還資本。我們將評估增值的內部和外部投資。鑑於當前的商業環境，我們可能會優先考慮增量成本削減項目和附加收購，而不是大型綠地或棕地產能擴張。我們將根據我們的股價，將這些潛在投資與機會主義地向股東返還資本進行比較。

We also expect to buy back shares to mitigate the impact of dilution from share grants to our employees. We were active again in the first quarter buying back shares. I would like to emphasize that we will continue to be disciplined allocators of capital, and we'll seek out the right opportunities to create value across both of our businesses. The team is focused on delivering strong free cash flows in 2023 despite a slower start in the first quarter.

我們還希望回購股票，以減輕向員工授予股票所帶來的稀釋影響。我們在第一季度再次積極回購股票。我想強調的是，我們將繼續成為有紀律的資本配置者，我們將尋找合適的機會在我們的業務中創造價值。儘管第一季度開局較慢，但該團隊的重點是在 2023 年提供強勁的自由現金流。

In closing, I would like to thank our people for all that they do to keep our operations running safely and efficiently and for servicing our customers. I also want to thank our shareholders for their continued support and our customers for placing their trust in us.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工為確保我們的運營安全高效地運行以及為客戶提供服務所做的一切。我還要感謝股東的持續支持以及客戶對我們的信任。

With that, we will end our prepared remarks and take your questions.

至此，我們將結束準備好的發言並回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Paul Quinn。

Just maybe start on the pulp side. The 3-month delay in sort of realizing lower pulp pricing, can you remind us how much you're buying in pulp? Is it 100% on the hardwood side? And did you see any benefit to that in Q1?

也許可以從紙漿一側開始。延遲了 3 個月才實現較低的紙漿價格，您能提醒我們您購買了多少紙漿嗎？是 100% 硬木面嗎？您在第一季度看到這有什麼好處嗎？

So Paul, we buy almost 300,000 tons a year of pulp on the open market. The vast majority of that is hardwood based. And we have seen a little bit of a downtick in the P&L of late, but I think we're going to see more pronounced benefits both in the second quarter and more importantly, the third quarter. So as you saw prices drop in pulp in February or March time frame, that kicks in a little bit at the end of the second quarter, but really will positively impact us in the third quarter.

保羅，我們每年在公開市場上購買近 30 萬噸紙漿。其中絕大多數是以硬木為基礎的。我們最近看到損益表略有下降，但我認為我們將在第二季度，更重要的是第三季度看到更明顯的收益。因此，正如您在二月或三月期間看到紙漿價格下跌一樣，這在第二季度末會有所下降，但確實會對我們在第三季度產生積極影響。

Paul, to add to that, pulp prices were increasing throughout last year. So if you look at, for example, eucalyptus went from $1,245 to $1,610 between January and December, and it started falling here in -- largely in Q1. So we expect to start seeing these benefits play themselves out here later in the year.

保羅補充說，去年紙漿價格一直在上漲。例如，如果你看一下，桉樹在 1 月到 12 月期間從 1,245 美元漲到 1,610 美元，然後開始下跌——主要是在第一季度。因此，我們預計這些好處將在今年晚些時候開始發揮作用。

Yes. No, I expect that as well. So if we were trying to look at a benchmark hardwood grade for you, is that eucalyptus? Do you buy a lot more eucalyptus than you'd buy North American hardwood?

是的。不，我也希望如此。因此，如果我們試圖為您尋找一個基準硬木等級，那就是桉樹嗎？您購買的桉樹數量是否比購買的北美硬木多得多？

I think that's the right way to think about it. We do use a North American hardwood as well, but eucalyptus has been great. That's primarily used in the tissue market for BEK primarily.

我認為這是正確的思考方式。我們也使用北美硬木，但桉樹非常棒。這主要用於 BEK 的衛生紙市場。

And Paul, to add to that, there's a list price and a spot price. I think no secret on the list price, most buyers buy the substantial discount to the list price. The spot price might be closer to maybe where the "market" is. So as you're looking at the changes, I think a little bit more towards that spot price versus the list price.

保羅，補充一點，還有標價和現貨價格。我認為標價不是什麼秘密，大多數買家都會在標價的大幅折扣下購買。現貨價格可能更接近“市場”價格。因此，當您看到這些變化時，我認為現貨價格與標價相比會更偏向一點。

Yes. I think I figured that out over the last 30 years. So yes, I think that's been settled. Maybe just the paperboard downtime that you've taken in Q2 here, how material is that? And what have you sort of baked into your Q2 guidance?

是的。我想我在過去 30 年裡已經明白了這一點。所以是的，我認為這已經解決了。也許只是您在第二季度所經歷的紙板停機時間，這有多重要？您在第二季度指導中融入了哪些內容？

We haven't -- I don't think we're prepared to share what that downtime is. I think what we said in our comments is it's our intent to balance supply and demand here for the balance of the year. There is -- we're also going to manage inventories. And I think what we said is we have a -- we grew our inventories, and we expect for net working capital to be a source of cash for the balance of the year. But I think we're going to stay away from commenting on specific tons.

我們還沒有——我認為我們還沒有準備好分享停機時間是什麼。我認為我們在評論中所說的是我們打算在今年剩餘時間里平衡供需。我們還將管理庫存。我認為我們所說的是我們增加了庫存，我們預計淨營運資本將成為今年剩餘時間的現金來源。但我認為我們不會對具體數量進行評論。

Okay. So maybe you can comment on just your expectation there. What's the confidence behind your expectation that paperboard will really improve in the second half?

好的。所以也許你可以只評論你的期望。您對紙板下半年真正好轉的預期有什麼信心？

Yes. I think -- here's what we think is happening. There's a few pieces moving around. So I think the first one is customers are managing their inventories as supply has become more available. And that's what we're hearing in the market as inventories are -- were quite high heading into the end of last year, and they remained high and customers are managing those inventories down. I think that's the first piece.

是的。我認為——這就是我們認為正在發生的事情。有幾塊在移動。因此，我認為第一個是隨著供應變得更加可用，客戶正在管理他們的庫存。這就是我們在市場上聽到的情況，因為庫存在去年年底相當高，而且仍然很高，客戶正在管理這些庫存。我認為這是第一部分。

The second piece is there is some softening in consumer spending happening. That's probably having an impact. And we're also seeing pockets of increased import activity and penetration in our markets, and that's probably due to some of the supply constraints that we saw last year and customers seeking out alternative sources of supply.

第二個問題是消費者支出出現了一些疲軟。這可能有影響。我們還看到進口活動和市場滲透率有所增加，這可能是由於我們去年看到的一些供應限制以及客戶尋求替代供應來源所致。

So from where we stand today, we think those 3 pieces will sort themselves out. And we believe we'll have a -- demand will start recovering in the second half. But certainly, we've seen softness here in Q1 as well as in April.

因此，從我們今天的立場來看，我們認為這三部分將會自行解決。我們相信需求將在下半年開始復蘇。但當然，我們在第一季度和四月份都看到了疲軟。

Okay. And then just on Consumer Products, I noticed that price is up kind of almost 12% year-over-year from Q1 this year to Q1 last year. But you're now, given sort of where pulp prices are falling to, your costs are coming down. How much of that increase that you got over the last year do you expect to give up? Or do you expect to give up any going forward here?

好的。然後就消費品而言，我注意到從今年第一季度到去年第一季度，價格同比上漲了近 12%。但現在，鑑於紙漿價格下跌，您的成本也在下降。您預計會放棄去年獲得的增長量中的多少？或者你打算放棄這裡的任何進展嗎？

I think we'll start with this. In both markets, including tissue, I think supply and demand will ultimately drive that price. So as you saw here over the last couple of years, we were not able to pass through the cost increases into price in tissue, and our margins were compressed. So we're in the process of recovering margins to more healthy levels.

我想我們就從這個開始吧。在這兩個市場，包括衛生紙，我認為供需最終將推動價格。因此，正如您在過去幾年中看到的那樣，我們無法將成本上漲轉嫁給衛生紙的價格，並且我們的利潤受到壓縮。因此，我們正在將利潤率恢復到更健康的水平。

So I don't think it's a direct correlation between price going up -- or price going down on pulp and price falling in the market. I think ultimately, it's going to be supply and demand driven. And we think demand is strong. And if you look at RISI data, supply additions have slowed. And so it's -- I think operating rates are going up in tissue, and we are approaching some of our constraints in our tissue production as well.

因此，我認為紙漿價格上漲或價格下跌與市場價格下跌之間沒有直接關係。我認為最終，這將是供需驅動的。我們認為需求強勁。如果你看一下 RISI 數據，就會發現供應增加已經放緩。所以我認為衛生紙的開工率正在上升，而且我們也正在接近衛生紙生產的一些限制。

So Paul, if you don't have any follow-up questions, I think that will conclude our call.

保羅，如果您沒有任何後續問題，我想我們的通話就到此結束。

Thank you, everyone, for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。