Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Dennis, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Clearwater Paper Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。我叫丹尼斯，今天我將擔任您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Clearwater Paper 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Sloan Bohlen, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係部的 Sloan Bohlen。請繼續。

Thank you, Dennis. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Clearwater Paper's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝你，丹尼斯。下午好，感謝您參加 Clearwater Paper 的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。

Joining me on the call today are Arsen Kitch, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Murphy, Chief Financial Officer. Financial results for the third quarter 2022 were released shortly after today's market close along with the filing of our 10-Q. You will find the presentation of supplemental information, including a slide providing the company's current outlook, posted on the Investor Relations page of our website at clearwaterpaper.com.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是總裁兼首席執行官 Arsen Kitch；和首席財務官邁克·墨菲。 2022 年第三季度的財務業績在今天收盤後不久發布，同時我們提交了 10-Q。您將在我們網站 clearwaterpaper.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到補充信息的介紹，包括提供公司當前前景的幻燈片。

Additionally, we will be providing certain non-GAAP information in this afternoon's discussion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release and in the supplemental information provided on our website. Please note Slide 2 of our supplemental information covering forward-looking statements. Rather than rereading this slide, we are going to incorporate it by reference in our prepared remarks.

此外，我們將在今天下午的討論中提供某些非 GAAP 信息。非公認會計原則信息與可比公認會計原則信息的核對包含在新聞稿和我們網站上提供的補充信息中。請注意我們關於前瞻性陳述的補充信息幻燈片 2。與其重讀這張幻燈片，我們將通過引用將其納入我們準備好的評論中。

With that, let me turn the call over to Arsen.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給 Arsen。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. Before reviewing our third quarter earnings, I wanted to wish everyone a safe and enjoyable Halloween.

下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。在回顧我們第三季度的收益之前，我想祝大家萬聖節安全愉快。

Please turn to Slide 3. We had a great third quarter, which exceeded our expectations. On a consolidated basis, we reported net sales of $539 million, which was 20% higher than prior year. Adjusted net income was $31 million and adjusted EBITDA was $77 million.

請轉到幻燈片 3。我們的第三季度表現出色，超出了我們的預期。在綜合基礎上，我們報告的淨銷售額為 5.39 億美元，比上年增長 20%。調整後的淨收入為 3100 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 7700 萬美元。

Let me share a few highlights. Both paperboard and tissue demand were strong with increased pricing in both businesses. Inflation remained a headwind across most of our input costs, particularly in pulp, fiber, chemicals and energy. In addition to price increases, we continue to improve our operating performance to help mitigate the impact of rising costs. We reduced net debt by $6 million in the quarter and $106 million in the first 9 months of the year. We also repurchased $25 million of our outstanding notes due in 2025. And finally, we repurchased 1 million of shares during the quarter for a total of 5 million in the first 9 months of the year. We have 25 million remaining on our buyback authorization.

讓我分享幾個亮點。紙板和生活用紙需求強勁，這兩項業務的價格都上漲了。通貨膨脹仍然是我們大部分投入成本的不利因素，特別是在紙漿、纖維、化學品和能源方面。除了價格上漲外，我們還將繼續改善我們的經營業績，以幫助減輕成本上升的影響。我們在本季度將淨債務減少了 600 萬美元，在今年前 9 個月減少了 1.06 億美元。我們還回購了 2500 萬美元的 2025 年到期的未償票據。最後，我們在本季度回購了 100 萬股股票，今年前 9 個月總共回購了 500 萬股。我們的回購授權還剩 2500 萬。

With that, let's discuss some additional details about both of our businesses. Let's start on Slide 4 with a few comments on our paperboard business. The industry continues to experience strong demand with higher SBS pricing as reported by RISI. Since the beginning of 2021, RISI has reported price increases for the U.S. market that totaled $500 per ton. $250 of increases were reported in 2022, including $20 per ton in September and $30 in October. As a reminder, it typically takes us up to 2 quarters for price changes to be reflected in our financials. It is also worth noting that our portfolio includes additional grades and price mechanisms that are not reflected in RISI's reporting.

有了這個，讓我們討論一些關於我們兩個業務的額外細節。讓我們從幻燈片 4 開始，對我們的紙板業務發表一些評論。 RISI 報告稱，隨著 SBS 定價較高，該行業的需求繼續強勁。自 2021 年初以來，RISI 報告稱美國市場的價格上漲了每噸 500 美元。據報導，2022 年增加了 250 美元，包括 9 月每噸 20 美元和 10 月每噸 30 美元。提醒一下，我們通常需要最多 2 個季度的時間才能將價格變化反映在我們的財務中。還值得注意的是，我們的產品組合包括未反映在 RISI 報告中的其他等級和價格機制。

We're monitoring economic trends, given concerns about a global economic slowdown. Our backlogs remained stable with continued strong demand. Even with the economic uncertainty, we continue to believe that the overall industry demand is robust, as evidenced by RISI's reported price increases a few weeks ago.

鑑於對全球經濟放緩的擔憂，我們正在監測經濟趨勢。我們的積壓訂單保持穩定，需求持續強勁。即使存在經濟不確定性，我們仍然認為整體行業需求強勁，RISI 幾週前報告的價格上漲證明了這一點。

Now please turn to Slide 5 for some additional comments on our tissue business. The underlying operating performance of our tissue business was very strong, and we continue to observe consumers shifting their demand to our private branded tissue products to help offset inflation. Private branded dollar share of the tissue market climbed to over 35% in September, which is an all-time high.

現在請轉到幻燈片 5，了解有關我們衛生紙業務的更多評論。我們的紙巾業務的基本經營業績非常強勁，我們繼續觀察到消費者將他們的需求轉移到我們的自有品牌紙巾產品以幫助抵消通貨膨脹。 9 月份，自有品牌在衛生紙市場的份額攀升至 35% 以上，創下歷史新高。

We shipped 12.6 million cases in the third quarter, matching our second quarter shipments and slightly above the third quarter of last year. We believe that we're well positioned to support our customers and their shoppers during the time of economic uncertainty. We recognize that inflation has outpaced price increases in tissue in 2021 and 2022, and we're diligently working to recover our margins. We're implementing recently announced price increases that will provide additional benefits in 2023 and are working diligently to continuously lower our cost position.

我們在第三季度出貨了 1260 萬箱，與第二季度的出貨量相當，略高於去年第三季度。我們相信，在經濟不確定的時期，我們有能力為我們的客戶及其購物者提供支持。我們認識到 2021 年和 2022 年的通貨膨脹已經超過了衛生紙價格的上漲速度，我們正在努力恢復我們的利潤率。我們正在實施最近宣布的價格上漲，這將在 2023 年提供額外的好處，並正在努力不斷降低我們的成本狀況。

As discussed in previous quarters, both of our businesses continued to see substantial inflation in the third quarter. In addition to price increases, we continued to focus on improving our operating and supply chain performance. Our focus on pricing and productivity is helping to offset the inflationary headwinds that we cannot control.

正如前幾個季度所討論的，我們的兩項業務在第三季度繼續出現大幅通脹。除了價格上漲，我們繼續專注於改善我們的運營和供應鏈績效。我們對定價和生產力的關注有助於抵消我們無法控制的通脹阻力。

I will now ask Mike to discuss our third quarter results in more detail.

我現在將請邁克更詳細地討論我們的第三季度業績。

Thank you, Arsen.

謝謝你，阿爾森。

Please turn to Slide 6. The consolidated company summary income statement shows third quarter for 2022 and 2021. In the third quarter 2022, our net income was $20.6 million. Net income per diluted share was $1.21, and adjusted net income per diluted share was $1.83. We exceeded our third quarter adjusted EBITDA expectations with solid operating performance, strong pricing, lower-than-anticipated natural gas prices and deferred maintenance expenses.

請轉到幻燈片 6。合併後的公司匯總損益表顯示 2022 年和 2021 年第三季度。2022 年第三季度，我們的淨收入為 2060 萬美元。每股攤薄淨收益為 1.21 美元，調整後每股攤薄淨收益為 1.83 美元。我們以穩健的經營業績、強勁的定價、低於預期的天然氣價格和遞延的維護費用超出了第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 預期。

In the third quarter, we effectively settled an open IRS audit which resulted in the reversal of certain net tax credits related to our Lewiston pulp investment from 5 years ago and increasing our taxes by approximately $8 million in the quarter. The corresponding segment results are on Slide 7.

在第三季度，我們有效地解決了一項公開的 IRS 審計，導致與 5 年前我們的 Lewiston 紙漿投資相關的某些淨稅收抵免被撤銷，並在本季度增加了約 800 萬美元的稅收。相應的細分結果在幻燈片 7 上。

Slide 8 is the year-over-year adjusted EBITDA comparison for our pulp and paperboard business in the third quarter. We benefited from our previously announced price increases which were partially offset by higher inflation across most of our spend categories. You will recall in the third quarter of 2021, we took a major maintenance outage that impacted adjusted EBITDA by $5 million. There was no outage in the third quarter of 2022. You can review a comparison of our third quarter 2022 performance relative to our second quarter on Slide 14.

幻燈片 8 是我們第三季度紙漿和紙板業務的同比調整後 EBITDA 比較。我們受益於我們之前宣布的價格上漲，這部分被我們大多數支出類別的較高通脹所抵消。您會記得在 2021 年第三季度，我們進行了一次重大維護中斷，對調整後的 EBITDA 造成了 500 萬美元的影響。 2022 年第三季度沒有中斷。您可以在幻燈片 14 上查看我們 2022 年第三季度與第二季度的業績比較。

Please turn to Slide 9 where we provide a year-over-year comparison for our tissue business in the third quarter. In addition to the implemented price increases, we realized some mix benefit in the quarter. Our production was higher than last year while we were curtailing production to reduce inventory and meet demand, and our sales were modestly higher than last year. These benefits were largely offset by higher costs due to inflationary pressures. You can review a comparison of our third quarter 2022 performance relative to the second quarter on Slide 15.

請轉到幻燈片 9，我們在其中提供了第三季度衛生紙業務的同比比較。除了實施的價格上漲，我們在本季度實現了一些混合收益。我們的產量高於去年，同時我們正在減產以減少庫存和滿足需求，我們的銷售額略高於去年。這些好處在很大程度上被通脹壓力導致的更高成本所抵消。您可以在幻燈片 15 上查看我們 2022 年第三季度與第二季度的業績比較。

Slide 10 outlines our capital structure. Our liquidity was $297 million at the end of the third quarter. We reduced net debt by $6 million with our free cash flows in the quarter. We utilized free cash flows and liquidity to repurchase $25 million of our notes that mature in 2025, reducing that principal amount to $270 million.

幻燈片 10 概述了我們的資本結構。截至第三季度末，我們的流動資金為 2.97 億美元。我們利用本季度的自由現金流將淨債務減少了 600 萬美元。我們利用自由現金流和流動性回購了 2500 萬美元的 2025 年到期的票據，將本金減少到 2.7 億美元。

Additionally, we used approximately $1 million to repurchase 30,000 shares for approximately $34 a share. This increases the total repurchased under our existing stock repurchase program in 2022 to approximately $5 million, with 150,000 shares purchased at an average price just above $33 per share. We have $25 million remaining on the authorization.

此外，我們用大約 100 萬美元以每股約 34 美元的價格回購了 30,000 股股票。這使我們在 2022 年現有股票回購計劃下的回購總額增加到約 500 萬美元，以略高於每股 33 美元的平均價格購買了 150,000 股股票。我們的授權還剩 2500 萬美元。

We updated our target capital expenditures to $60 million to $70 million per year, absent major projects to reflect the impacts of inflation. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA at the end of the third quarter of 2022 was 2.0x, and net debt was $494 million. Additionally, S&P raised our outlook from stable to positive during the third quarter.

我們將目標資本支出更新為每年 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元，不包括反映通貨膨脹影響的重大項目。截至 2022 年第三季度末，我們與調整後 EBITDA 的淨債務為 2.0 倍，淨債務為 4.94 億美元。此外，標準普爾在第三季度將我們的展望從穩定上調至正面。

Slide 11 provides a perspective on our fourth quarter 2022 outlook and the resulting full year guidance. Our expectations assume that we continue to operate our assets without significant disruptions. We want to reiterate that our price realization and inflation will continue to be difficult to predict. Our current expectation for the fourth quarter is adjusted EBITDA of $38 million to $48 million. The midpoint of that range for the fourth quarter is $34 million lower than the third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $77 million. This is largely due to our planned major maintenance outage. As a reminder, we had no major maintenance outages in paperboard in the third quarter and expect that the fourth quarter outage will impact adjusted EBITDA by $21 million to $25 million. This is modestly higher impact than previous expectations.

幻燈片 11 提供了我們對 2022 年第四季度展望以及由此產生的全年指導的看法。我們的預期假設我們繼續運營我們的資產而不會出現重大中斷。我們想重申，我們的價格實現和通脹將繼續難以預測。我們目前對第四季度的預期是調整後的 EBITDA 為 3800 萬美元至 4800 萬美元。第四季度該範圍的中點比第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 7700 萬美元低 3400 萬美元。這主要是由於我們計劃的重大維護中斷。提醒一下，我們在第三季度沒有發生紙板的重大維護中斷，預計第四季度的中斷將對調整後的 EBITDA 造成 2100 萬至 2500 萬美元的影響。這一影響略高於此前的預期。

Previously announced price increases are expected to positively impact us during the quarter by $5 million to $9 million. We expect inflation, particularly pulp, fiber, chemicals and energy to cost us an additional $7 million to $11 million. We experienced production issues at our paperboard mills in October, reducing both our pulp and paperboard production and impacting EBITDA by approximately $5 million. Additionally, the fourth quarter tends to be seasonally soft for tissue volumes with retailers focusing on holiday items in their stores.

先前宣布的價格上漲預計將在本季度對我們產生 500 萬至 900 萬美元的積極影響。我們預計通貨膨脹，尤其是紙漿、纖維、化學品和能源將使我們額外損失 700 萬至 1100 萬美元。 10 月，我們的紙板廠遇到了生產問題，導致我們的紙漿和紙板產量減少，並影響 EBITDA 約 500 萬美元。此外，由於零售商專注於商店中的假日商品，第四季度的紙巾銷量往往會出現季節性疲軟。

Our adjusted EBITDA for the first 3 quarters of 2022 was $199 million and when combined with our fourth quarter guidance, we expect the full year adjusted EBITDA to be $237 million to $247 million, significantly higher than our adjusted EBITDA of $175 million in 2021.

我們在 2022 年前三個季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.99 億美元，結合我們第四季度的指引，我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.37 億美元至 2.47 億美元，顯著高於我們在 2021 年調整後的 EBITDA 1.75 億美元。

Here are some of those building blocks that compare expected 2022 performance relative to last year. We expect a full year pricing benefit of $274 million to $278 million. This is near the high end of our prior guidance. Commodity cost inflation, including pulp, fiber freight, chemicals and energy is expected to be $187 million to $191 million, which is at the low end of our previous expectations. We expect labor inflation, net of cost mitigation efforts to be approximately $10 million. We expect growth in converted tissue volume. However, the volume benefits will largely be offset by higher supply chain costs. In our paperboard business, planned major maintenance outages are expected to have a slightly higher financial impact.

以下是比較 2022 年預期表現與去年相比的一些組成部分。我們預計全年定價收益為 2.74 億美元至 2.78 億美元。這接近我們先前指導的高端。包括紙漿、纖維運費、化學品和能源在內的大宗商品成本通脹預計為 1.87 億美元至 1.91 億美元，處於我們之前預期的低端。我們預計勞動力通脹（扣除成本緩解措施）約為 1000 萬美元。我們預計轉換後的組織體積會增長。然而，數量優勢將在很大程度上被更高的供應鏈成本所抵消。在我們的紙板業務中，計劃中的重大維護中斷預計會產生略高的財務影響。

We are also anticipating the following for 2022. Interest expense between $34 million and $36 million; depreciation and amortization between $101 million and $104 million; capital expenditures of around $30 million to $40 million. This is lower than our expected target expenditure levels of $60 million to $70 million. Over the last 3 years, we've cumulatively underspent our target by over $60 million. And you should expect that we will spend over the next several years above that targeted $60 million to $70 million range.

我們還預計 2022 年會出現以下情況。利息支出在 3400 萬美元至 3600 萬美元之間；折舊和攤銷在 1.01 億美元至 1.04 億美元之間；資本支出約為 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元。這低於我們預期的 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的目標支出水平。在過去 3 年中，我們累計少用了超過 6000 萬美元的目標。你應該期望我們在接下來的幾年里花費超過 6000 萬到 7000 萬美元的目標。

We expect to update you during the fourth quarter earnings call on the timing of the Lewiston recovery boiler tube replacement project, which is expected to require a capital expense approaching $40 million and an estimated adjusted EBITDA impact of $30 million. We expect to spend $5 million out of the $40 million capital expenditures in 2022.

我們預計在第四季度財報電話會議上向您通報劉易斯頓回收鍋爐管更換項目的時間安排，該項目預計需要接近 4000 萬美元的資本支出，估計調整後的 EBITDA 影響為 3000 萬美元。我們預計 2022 年將花費 4000 萬美元的資本支出中的 500 萬美元。

Our effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be 34% versus the typical rate of 26% to 27%. That rate is being impacted by the reversal of net tax credits taken in 2017 through 2019.

我們全年的有效稅率預計為 34%，而典型稅率為 26% 至 27%。該稅率受到 2017 年至 2019 年淨稅收抵免逆轉的影響。

Additionally, our current cash expectations for future years assumes that cash taxes will exceed our statutory taxes as we benefited from accelerated depreciation related to the Shelby expansion and Lewiston pulp optimization projects.

此外，我們目前對未來幾年的現金預期假設現金稅將超過我們的法定稅，因為我們受益於與謝爾比擴建和劉易斯頓紙漿優化項目相關的加速折舊。

Let me turn the call back over to Arsen.

讓我把電話轉回給 Arsen。

Thanks, Mike. I want to spend a few minutes discussing our key priorities for shareholder value creation.

謝謝，邁克。我想花幾分鐘討論我們為股東創造價值的關鍵優先事項。

Since becoming CEO in 2020, we are focused on generating free cash flow, deleveraging our balance sheet and improving financial flexibility. We have recently achieved our leverage target and believe that now is a good time to share our capital allocation framework. This framework has been shaped by investor and analyst input, together with a robust dialogue with our Board.

自 2020 年成為首席執行官以來，我們專注於產生自由現金流、去槓桿化我們的資產負債表和提高財務靈活性。我們最近實現了我們的槓桿目標，並相信現在是分享我們的資本配置框架的好時機。該框架是由投資者和分析師的意見以及與我們董事會的有力對話形成的。

Slide 12 offers a visual depiction of our framework, which is prioritized from top to bottom. Our first priority is to sustain our asset base, which we believe requires an average of $60 million to $70 million of capital expenditures annually, excluding large projects. We expect to invest above that target level in the near to medium term.

幻燈片 12 提供了我們框架的可視化描述，從上到下優先排序。我們的首要任務是維持我們的資產基礎，我們認為這需要平均每年 6000 萬至 7000 萬美元的資本支出，不包括大型項目。我們預計在中短期內將投資於該目標水平之上。

Second, we intend to maintain a balance sheet that provides us with financial flexibility. While we believe that a long-term leverage ratio of 2.5 is appropriate, we may continue to deleverage further to create greater financial flexibility to take advantage of investment opportunities that will create shareholder value in a potential down cycle.

其次，我們打算維持一個為我們提供財務靈活性的資產負債表。雖然我們認為 2.5 的長期槓桿率是合適的，但我們可能會繼續進一步去槓桿化，以創造更大的財務靈活性，以利用投資機會，在潛在的下行週期中創造股東價值。

Third, we will evaluate value-accretive internal and external investments. These investments should be strategic in nature and clearly add value by realizing near-term cash flow benefits. Given the current business environment, we're likely to prioritize incremental cost reduction projects and add-on acquisitions versus large greenfield or brownfield capacity expansions.

第三，我們將評估增值的內部和外部投資。這些投資在本質上應該是戰略性的，並且通過實現近期現金流收益明顯增加價值。鑑於當前的商業環境，我們可能會優先考慮增量成本降低項目和附加收購，而不是大型綠地或棕地產能擴張。

Fourth, we expect to buy back shares to mitigate the impact of dilution from share grants to our employees. We will also be opportunistic with additional share repurchases depending on our share price levels. I would like to emphasize that we will continue to be disciplined allocators of capital, and we'll seek out the right opportunities to create value across both of our businesses.

第四，我們預計回購股份以減輕股份授予對員工的稀釋影響。我們還將根據我們的股價水平進行額外的股票回購。我想強調的是，我們將繼續成為有紀律的資本分配者，我們將尋找合適的機會在我們的兩個業務中創造價值。

In closing, I would like to thank our people for all that they do to keep our operations running safely and efficiently and for servicing our customers. I also want to thank our shareholders for their continued support and our customers for placing their trust in us.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工為保持我們的運營安全和高效運行以及為客戶提供服務所做的一切。我還要感謝我們的股東一直以來的支持以及我們的客戶對我們的信任。

With that, we will end our prepared remarks and take your questions.

至此，我們將結束我們準備好的評論並回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Adam Josephson with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Adam Josephson。

Congratulations on another really good quarter. Arsen or Mike, just on the third -- your third quarter performance, obviously, you topped your EBITDA guidance. I assume that was mostly or entirely related to higher paperboard prices and demand and I assume the same goes for the implied full year guidance going up by, call it, $10-ish million. Am I right in thinking that? Or if not, what were the sources of upside relative to your EBITDA guidance in the quarter?

祝賀另一個非常好的季度。阿爾森或邁克，就在第三季度——顯然，你的第三季度業績超過了 EBITDA 指導。我認為這主要或完全與更高的紙板價格和需求有關，而且我認為隱含的全年指導也是如此，它會上升 10 萬美元左右。我這樣想對嗎？或者，如果不是，那麼與您在本季度的 EBITDA 指導相關的上行來源是什麼？

So it was a range of things, Adam. First and foremost, we had really good operational performance relative to our expectations. Tissue performed very well from a production standpoint and paperboard did as well. So I'd say that was the biggest lever relative to guidance. Pricing across the portfolio was probably the second biggest lever for the outperformance. Third one was natural gas prices, which has been pretty difficult to predict. 3 months ago, the forward curves look pretty ugly. That came down since then. That would have been the third lever. And then we also noted that we deferred some of our planned maintenance expenses in the quarter to the future. Those would be the 4 primary buckets, Adam, of where we'd be relative to our guidance.

所以這是一系列的事情，亞當。首先，相對於我們的預期，我們的運營表現非常好。從生產的角度來看，紙巾的表現非常好，紙板也一樣。所以我會說這是相對於指導的最大槓桿。整個投資組合的定價可能是表現優異的第二大槓桿。第三個是天然氣價格，這很難預測。 3 個月前，前向曲線看起來很醜。從那以後就下降了。那將是第三個槓桿。然後我們還注意到，我們將本季度的一些計劃維護費用推遲到了未來。這將是我們相對於我們的指導的 4 個主要桶，亞當。

I appreciate that. The production issues in October you mentioned of pulp and paperboard, can you be any more specific as to what that was? And I assume that you're not expecting those to persist into November.

我很感激。您在 10 月份提到了紙漿和紙板的生產問題，您能具體說明一下嗎？而且我假設您不會期望這些會持續到 11 月。

Yes. We're not going to get into the details, but they impacted both mills, pulp production at one of the mills and paperboard production at the other mill. We're still, frankly, working through those issues. So $5 million is an impact that we expect across the quarter, although we think the majority of that impact happened in the month of October. We're working through them. It's something we'll get through and we'll get back on track. But we thought it was important to call it out here early as it is having an impact on our quarter.

是的。我們不打算詳細介紹，但它們影響了兩家工廠、一家工廠的紙漿生產和另一家工廠的紙板生產。坦率地說，我們仍在努力解決這些問題。因此，500 萬美元是我們預計整個季度的影響，儘管我們認為大部分影響發生在 10 月份。我們正在處理它們。這是我們會克服的事情，我們會回到正軌。但我們認為儘早在這裡提出這一點很重要，因為它會對我們的季度產生影響。

I appreciate that, Arsen. Just a couple more from me. One is towards the end, you mentioned you're not inclined toward any large greenfield capacity additions as part of your capital allocation strategy which begs the obvious question, you're pretty much at capacity in your paperboard business. I mean, you're producing 800,000 tons a year, which is precisely what your paperboard capacity is. If you're not going to invest in new capacity, how would you be able to grow? I mean where -- do you have the capability to grow in your paperboard business? Or are you at capacity? How do you think about growing that business in the future absent any major capacity additions?

我很感激，阿爾森。就我幾個。一個是接近尾聲，您提到您不傾向於將任何大型新建產能增加作為您的資本配置策略的一部分，這引出了一個明顯的問題，您的紙板業務幾乎處於產能狀態。我的意思是，你每年生產 800,000 噸，這正是你的紙板產能。如果您不打算投資新產能，您將如何發展？我的意思是——你有能力發展你的紙板業務嗎？還是你有能力？您如何看待未來在沒有任何重大產能增加的情況下發展該業務？

So Adam, you're right. We've been at capacity, and we've been operating full for a while. Two ways to do that in paperboard. I think the first one is making, I would say, medium-sized investments in the mills to improve throughput and increase production. That's not any paper machine. That's incremental production to drive some growth. And then we'd be looking externally for acquisition opportunities. And we're not going to get into a lot of details of what those could look like, but we certainly see potential and some options on the horizon for us to pursue growth through acquisitions.

所以亞當，你是對的。我們已經滿負荷運轉了一段時間。有兩種方法可以在紙板中做到這一點。我認為第一個是對工廠進行中等規模的投資，以提高產量和增加產量。那不是任何造紙機。這是推動一些增長的增量生產。然後我們會在外部尋找收購機會。我們不會詳細介紹這些可能是什麼樣子，但我們肯定會看到潛力和一些選擇，讓我們通過收購來追求增長。

I appreciate that. And just one last related one, which is that there's been a lot of talk about all the FBB capacity additions that have been announced in Asia and Europe and in the U.S. for that matter, and even some of the U.S. producers are running FBB trials. How are you thinking about the growth in FBB imports, the FBB capacity additions that have been announced and what long-term impact that might have on your domestic SBS business?

我很感激。只有最後一個相關的，那就是關於亞洲、歐洲和美國已經宣布的所有 FBB 產能增加的討論很多，甚至一些美國生產商也在進行 FBB 試驗。您如何看待 FBB 進口的增長、已宣布的 FBB 產能增加以及可能對您的國內 SBS 業務產生的長期影響？

There has been a lot of discussions about FBB recently. So FBB has been in this market for many years. We believe there's about 0.5 million tons of imports and that's been relatively stable for some period of time. I think through this last couple of years, a lot of our customers recognize the benefits of having a domestic supply chain. So I think that's part of the answer. And the second part is, this is still predominantly an SBS market. And FBB applications require different type -- require different converting processes and for converters to change their or run their operation.

最近有很多關於FBB的討論。所以FBB在這個市場上已經很多年了。我們認為進口量約為 50 萬噸，並且在一段時間內相對穩定。我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們的很多客戶都認識到擁有國內供應鏈的好處。所以我認為這是答案的一部分。第二部分是，這仍然主要是一個 SBS 市場。 FBB 應用程序需要不同的類型——需要不同的轉換過程，並且轉換器需要改變它們或運行它們的操作。

So at least I think in the near to medium term -- don't know exactly how those, how the capacity additions will impact imports into the U.S., but they've been around for a while. I think domestic FBB production potentially offset some of those imports. But we're working through various scenarios and planning for how we would react and what we would do.

所以至少我認為在中短期內——不知道這些，產能增加將如何影響對美國的進口，但它們已經存在了一段時間。我認為國內 FBB 生產可能會抵消部分進口。但我們正在研究各種方案，併計劃我們將如何反應以及我們將做什麼。

Your next question is from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Paul Quinn。

Just wondering about in terms of your Q4 guidance, have you got -- are you assuming that price increases that you're seeing on both the paperboard and the tissue side are going to offset the cost inflation you're seeing?

只是想知道你的第四季度指導，你有沒有 - 你是否假設你在紙板和紙巾方面看到的價格上漲將抵消你看到的成本膨脹？

No, I think we have a little bit of a timing issue, Paul. So it's a good question. Our price increases are going to be just below what we think our raw material cost inflation is going to be. So pricing -- give you a range and this is sequential, up $5 million to $9 million. And then from our raw material and freight inputs, that's going to be up $7 million to $11 million. So a mild margin compression that we're going to see from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.

不，我認為我們有一點時間問題，保羅。所以這是一個很好的問題。我們的價格漲幅將略低於我們認為的原材料成本通脹水平。所以定價——給你一個範圍，這是連續的，從 500 萬美元到 900 萬美元。然後從我們的原材料和貨運投入來看，這將增加 700 萬美元至 1100 萬美元。因此，我們將從第三季度到第四季度看到輕微的利潤率壓縮。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the costs themselves, are you seeing any relief on freight yet?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就成本本身而言，您是否看到運費有所減輕？

Freight, yes. We saw that a little bit in the third quarter heading into the fourth quarter. So I think that's one area that we're seeing a positive comparison at least on a sequential basis.

貨運，是的。我們在第三季度進入第四季度時看到了一點點。所以我認為這是我們至少在連續的基礎上看到積極比較的一個領域。

And I'd expect, you're starting to see something on pulp, but nothing on energy yet?

我預計，你開始看到紙漿上的一些東西，但還沒有看到能量上的東西？

Yes. I think on pulp, it's a tough one because it's -- we saw a little bit of easing on softwood, very minor here into October. Eucalyptus is holding pretty firm. I think if you look back at the forecast into the second half of this year, the forecasts were indicating an easing in pulp prices. We obviously haven't seen that. If you look at the forecasts into '23, I think most of them are assuming decreases in pulp pricing. But at this point, I think we've been wrong for several years. But we're -- at least it's good to see some easing on softwood. We're hoping we're at peak, and we'll see some relief in the coming quarters.

是的。我認為在紙漿方面，這是一個艱難的時期，因為它是 - 我們看到軟木有所放鬆，到 10 月為止非常輕微。桉樹持有相當穩固。我認為，如果您回顧今年下半年的預測，則預測表明紙漿價格將放緩。我們顯然沒有看到這一點。如果您查看 23 年的預測，我認為其中大多數都假設紙漿價格會下降。但在這一點上，我認為我們錯了好幾年。但我們 - 至少看到軟木有所放鬆是件好事。我們希望我們處於巔峰狀態，我們會在接下來的幾個季度看到一些緩解。

Okay. And then just on major maintenance, I mean I see that sort of that slide at the end, saying $35 million to $40 million in '23, but it could also be postponed to '24? Or how do you think about '24? Or are we due for another zero major maintenance year?

好的。然後就大維護而言，我的意思是我在最後看到了那種幻燈片，說 23 年 3500 萬到 4000 萬美元，但也可以推遲到 24 年？或者你如何看待'24？還是我們要迎來另一個零大維護年？

Sure. Good question, Paul. So Slide 20, just to clarify, there's 2 separate potential outages in 2023. So we've called out one that's in the fourth quarter, that's about a $5 million outage. The other one, this is related to Lewiston, and this is the screen tube replacement project. And on this one, Paul, we need to get into our outage in Lewiston for the fourth quarter here of 2022, which is going to commence in about a week.

當然。好問題，保羅。所以幻燈片 20，只是為了澄清一下，2023 年有 2 次單獨的潛在中斷。所以我們已經調出了第四季度的一次，大約 500 萬美元的中斷。另一個，這個跟Lewiston有關，這個就是篩管更換項目。在這一點上，保羅，我們需要在 2022 年第四季度開始在劉易斯頓停電，這將在大約一周後開始。

And as we finish up that outage, we'll be in a much better position to choose which time frame we're going to take, the 2023 or '24 outage. So this is either late in 2023 or early in 2024, depending upon both the state of the screen tubes, the availability of contractors and the availability of materials.

隨著我們完成停電，我們將處於一個更好的位置來選擇我們要採取的時間框架，即 2023 年或 24 年的停電。因此，這要么是 2023 年末，要么是 2024 年初，這取決於篩管的狀態、承包商的可用性和材料的可用性。

Okay. That's great. So assuming that you're going to push through to the -- do the screen tubes in '23. What does the preliminary '24 look like? Does that cover off Lewiston for a year and then you're back just basically on [segregate] then?

好的。那太棒了。因此，假設您要推進到 23 年的篩選管。 '24 初選是什麼樣的？這是否涵蓋了劉易斯頓一年，然後你基本上回到[隔離]？

Too early to speculate, Paul, but we will anticipate your question when we're ready to give you guidance on the next outage at Lewiston once we get through this one here in November.

保羅，現在推測還為時過早，但當我們準備好在 11 月在這裡完成這次停電後，我們準備為您提供有關劉易斯頓下一次停電的指導時，我們會預料到您的問題。

Your next question is from the line of Mark Wilde with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mark Wilde。

Just kind of a detailed question. The -- on Slide #11, you've got a major maintenance outage at Lewiston listed as $19 million to $23 million. I think during the commentary, I heard that number go up by a couple of million bucks. Can you just -- can you help us with that?

只是一個詳細的問題。 - 在幻燈片 #11 上，Lewiston 的一次重大維護中斷被列為 1900 萬到 2300 萬美元。我想在評論中，我聽說這個數字增加了幾百萬美元。你能 - 你能幫助我們嗎？

Yes. Good question there. I'd have it at the higher end, they're closer to that $23 million for the major maintenance outage.

是的。好問題。我會把它放在更高端的，它們接近 2300 萬美元的主要維護中斷。

Okay. All right. And then I think you've already talked about sort of what we should expect in pricing in terms of kind of $5 million to $9 million quarter-to-quarter. Is that correct across both of the businesses?

好的。好的。然後我想你已經談到了我們應該期望的按季度定價 500 萬到 900 萬美元的定價。這對兩家企業都是正確的嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And is there anything, Mike, outstanding right now, Mike or Arsen, in terms of any contract renewals that you're working on?

好的。邁克，邁克或阿爾森，在你正在進行的任何續約方面，有什麼突出的嗎？

I think we've got through the material ones in '22. I think as you look at -- as we look at '23, it's a more normal year for us, so the normal risk that we have going into any year, and frankly, we feel pretty good about next year. I think we have opportunities to both optimize and grow our business in tissue.

我認為我們已經通過了 22 年的材料問題。我認為，當你看到 - 當我們看到 23 年時，這對我們來說是更正常的一年，所以我們面臨任何一年的正常風險，坦率地說，我們對明年感覺很好。我認為我們有機會優化和發展我們的衛生紙業務。

Okay. And Arsen, over the last couple of years, you've been quite clear about sort of the need for kind of change in the tissue market and potentially some consolidation. What's your read on the situation right now?

好的。 Arsen，在過去的幾年裡，你非常清楚衛生紙市場需要進行某種變革，並可能進行一些整合。你對現在的情況有什麼看法？

I still stand by those comments. I think we still -- consolidation still needed to improve scale and cost and returns. From our standpoint, we want to make sure we have a strong balance sheet so we can play whatever role we need to play in that consolidation. Right now, margins are depressed in the tissue business and capital markets are somewhat turbulent. But I think we're well positioned to play a role in that consolidation on both sides.

我仍然支持這些評論。我認為我們仍然需要整合以提高規模、成本和回報。從我們的角度來看，我們希望確保我們擁有強大的資產負債表，以便我們可以在整合中發揮我們需要發揮的任何作用。目前，衛生紙業務的利潤率低迷，資本市場有些動盪。但我認為我們有能力在雙方的整合中發揮作用。

Okay. All right, and then last one for me, just when you talked about sort of investing kind of incrementally on the 2 sides of your business. How do you think about sort of tissue versus packaging? And then in packaging, you've historically been not integrated in that business. Maybe just any thoughts about investing downstream in packaging.

好的。好吧，然後是我的最後一個，就在您談到在您的業務的兩個方面進行漸進式投資時。你如何看待紙巾與包裝的區別？然後在包裝方面，您歷來沒有融入該業務。也許只是關於在包裝下游投資的任何想法。

So the first part of your question, I think we'll be driven by value creation, and we'll be opportunistic. So I think we're willing to invest in both sides of our business if we can create value. In terms of packaging, you're right, we've been independent, and that's part of our value proposition to our customers is that we are focused on them through the ups and downs of the paperboard market. .

所以你問題的第一部分，我認為我們將受到價值創造的驅動，我們將是機會主義的。所以我認為，如果我們能夠創造價值，我們願意投資於我們業務的雙方。在包裝方面，您是對的，我們一直是獨立的，這是我們對客戶價值主張的一部分，即我們在紙板市場的起伏中專注於他們。 .

We're going to -- we have and will continue to evaluate if that's still the right strategy in the long run. But that's a strategy that we've had now for since we've become a public company in 2008, and that's part of our value proposition. But certainly, we'll be looking at all options in the coming years to make sure that all of our strategies still makes sense.

我們將——我們已經並將繼續評估從長遠來看這是否仍然是正確的策略。但這是我們自 2008 年成為上市公司以來一直採用的戰略，也是我們價值主張的一部分。但可以肯定的是，我們將在未來幾年考慮所有選項，以確保我們所有的策略仍然有意義。

Okay. And just finally, you talked about the potential look at kind of medium-sized moves on the mill side in SBS. Would it be fair to assume that, that could involve sort of mills that are -- could undergo conversions or might be kind of in the midst of conversions?

好的。就在最後，您談到了 SBS 工廠方面的中型舉措的潛在前景。是否可以公平地假設，這可能涉及某種工廠——可以進行轉換，或者可能正在轉換中？

No, I think we'll be open-minded and we'll look at opportunities where we think we can strategically make sense for us, the quality of the asset is there or has the potential to be there. And the third part is creating optionality for us down the line to create a -- I would say, a more scaled and a better paperboard business that's more relevant to our customers.

不，我認為我們會保持開放的心態，我們會尋找我們認為對我們具有戰略意義的機會，資產的質量存在或有可能存在。第三部分是為我們創造選擇性，以創建一個 - 我會說，一個與我們的客戶更相關的規模更大、更好的紙板業務。

Today's final question is a follow-up from the line of Adam Josephson with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

今天的最後一個問題是來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Adam Josephson 的後續問題。

Just to follow up on one of Mark's questions about in which segment you'd be more inclined to invest in the years to come. I mean I understand looking at value, Arsen, but all else equal, would you be more inclined to invest in paperboard just given the superior market structure or not necessarily for any number of reasons?

只是為了跟進馬克的一個問題，即您在未來幾年更傾向於投資哪個細分市場。我的意思是我理解看價值，Arsen，但在其他條件相同的情況下，鑑於優越的市場結構，您會更傾向於投資紙板，還是不一定出於任何原因？

So Adam, it's a good question. I think there's a number of factors involved. I mean the first obvious one is value creation potential, right? And then looking at strategic fit, looking at quality of assets. So it's hard to say that we can find more opportunities on one side of the business or the other. I think it's going to be siting specific as we look at the potential for growth. You're absolutely right. We've enjoyed a great -- we've enjoyed good paperboard margins over the years, and tissue is more challenged. But I think each situation is going to be unique. So I think we'll continue to be opportunistic and we'll look at both sides of the business.

所以亞當，這是一個很好的問題。我認為這涉及到很多因素。我的意思是第一個明顯的是價值創造潛力，對吧？然後看戰略契合度，看資產質量。所以很難說我們可以在業務的一側或另一側找到更多的機會。我認為當我們看到增長潛力時，它將是特定的選址。你是絕對正確的。我們很享受——多年來，我們一直享受著不錯的紙板利潤，而紙巾面臨的挑戰更大。但我認為每種情況都是獨一無二的。因此，我認為我們將繼續投機取巧，我們將著眼於業務的雙方。

No, I appreciate that. Mike, in terms of the CapEx, you mentioned that in the next few years, you'll be spending above that $60 million to $70 million, just given the degree to which you've underspent in recent years. Can you give me some order of magnitude, rough expectations over the next 2, 3, 4 years, whatever you might be thinking along those lines?

不，我很感激。邁克，就資本支出而言，您提到在接下來的幾年中，您的支出將超過 6000 萬美元到 7000 萬美元，這只是考慮到您近年來支出不足的程度。你能給我一些數量級的粗略預期，對接下來的 2、3、4 年，無論你是怎麼想的？

I think the right way to model it, Adam, is just on average to be in that $60 million to $70 million of code. So if you took the underspend over the last few years, you project that forward as something that will be a bit higher. And when you look at a company like ours, we're rather small, and so things become a little more episodic. So as an example, the recovery boiler #5 at Lewiston and that project, that's going to add to that regular rate capital expenditures that we have, and that's something that you should incorporate into your models here for the next couple of years.

我認為建模它的正確方法，Adam，平均而言是在 6000 萬到 7000 萬美元的代碼中。因此，如果您在過去幾年中支出不足，您會將其預測為會更高一些的東西。而且，當您查看像我們這樣的公司時，我們的規模很小，因此事情變得更加偶然。舉個例子，Lewiston 的 5 號回收鍋爐和那個項目，這將增加我們擁有的常規費率資本支出，這是你應該在未來幾年內將其納入你的模型中的東西。

Yes. No, I appreciate that, Mike. And just thinking about next year, obviously, we don't know the timing of the major maintenance next year, whether it will be all next year or in 2024. That aside, is there anything that we ought to be aware of as we're thinking about '23 versus '22 at this admittedly early stage?

是的。不，我很感激，邁克。只是考慮明年，顯然，我們不知道明年大維護的時間，是明年還是 2024 年。除此之外，還有什麼我們應該注意的事情嗎？在這個公認的早期階段重新考慮'23與'22？

So we want to shy away from giving guidance for 2023. I think what we'll look to do on the year-end earnings call in February is start giving you those building blocks like we've customarily done. But we'll hold off until then.

因此，我們希望避免提供 2023 年的指導。我認為我們希望在 2 月份的年終收益電話會議上開始像我們通常所做的那樣為您提供那些構建模塊。但我們會等到那時。

Yes. No, fair. And just one last point of clarification on the price/mix guidance for the year, the increase of -- I think it went up by $11 million. Was that all paperboard? And was that all the September, October SBS increase? Or was that also partly related to previous price increases?

是的。不，公平。最後一點澄清了今年的價格/組合指導，我認為它增加了 1100 萬美元。那都是紙板嗎？這就是整個 9 月、10 月 SBS 的增長嗎？還是這也與之前的價格上漲部分有關？

So it's both businesses. We're implementing previously announced price increases in both tissue and paperboard. And I think we mentioned on the call, we'll see benefits from the tissue price increases going into next year. I think if you look at the average selling price on tissue, that has been on an upswing. So we are -- we're optimistic in our ability to recover those margins from inflation in tissue, although we still have a ways to go.

所以兩者都是生意。我們正在實施先前宣布的紙巾和紙板價格上漲。我認為我們在電話會議上提到，我們將看到明年紙巾價格上漲帶來的好處。我認為，如果你看一下紙巾的平均售價，就會發現它一直在上漲。因此，我們對從紙巾通脹中恢復這些利潤的能力持樂觀態度，儘管我們還有很長的路要走。

Yes. And Arsen, actually one last one before I let you go. You mentioned private brand market share is now above 35%, and obviously, consumer buying behavior is being affected. Can you just give us a little more insight into what you see happening and how high perhaps that private brand market share could go given the pressure that some consumers are under?

是的。還有阿森，實際上是我放你走之前的最後一個。你提到現在自有品牌的市場份額已經超過35%，很明顯，消費者的購買行為正在受到影響。您能否讓我們更深入地了解您所看到的情況，以及考慮到一些消費者所承受的壓力，自有品牌的市場份額可能會有多高？

Yes. So we've seen -- so Adam, we've seen private brands gain share even when the economy was in really good shape. And so -- but we do think there's an acceleration that's happening here with inflation and the economic uncertainty. And what we've said previously, if you look at some European markets, private branded shares north of 50%. And there are categories in the North American markets and on the grocery aisles that are north of 50% as well.

是的。所以我們已經看到 - 所以亞當，即使經濟狀況非常好，我們也看到自有品牌獲得份額。所以——但我們確實認為通貨膨脹和經濟不確定性正在加速。我們之前說過，如果你看看一些歐洲市場，自有品牌的份額超過 50%。北美市場和雜貨店貨架上也有超過 50% 的類別。

So do I think we'll get to 50% here in the near term, that's probably a bit of a stretch. But I think there's still plenty of runway to gain for private brands to gain share. We have also noticed consumers gravitating towards lower-cost items, smaller pack sizes. So some of that is happening. But I think that remains to be seen exactly how consumers behave in -- heading into next year.

所以我認為我們會在短期內達到 50%，這可能有點牽強。但我認為自有品牌仍有很多空間可以贏得份額。我們還注意到消費者傾向於購買成本更低、包裝更小的產品。所以其中一些正在發生。但我認為，消費者的行為方式還有待觀察——進入明年。

Thank you all for joining. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝大家的加入。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。