Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Ciena fiscal first-quarter 2025 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Ciena 2025 財年第一季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Gregg Lampf, the Vice President of Investor relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Gregg Lampf。請繼續。

Thank you, Michael. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2025 fiscal first-quarter conference call. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, Executive Advisor, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝你，麥可。早上好，歡迎參加 Ciena 2025 財年第一季電話會議。今天參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長加里史密斯 (Gary Smith)；以及財務長 Jim Moylan。執行顧問 Scott McFeely 也與我們一起進行問答。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the investor section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our view on current market dynamics and drivers of our business, as well as the discussion of our financial outlook.

除了此次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在我們網站的投資者部分發布了投資者演示文稿，其中反映了此次討論以及本季度的一些重點事項。我們今天的評論談到了我們最近的表現、我們對當前市場動態和業務驅動力的看法，以及對我們財務前景的討論。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

今天的討論包括對 Ciena 經營業績的某些調整後或非 GAAP 衡量指標。今天的新聞稿中包含了這些非 GAAP 指標與我們的 GAAP 結果的對帳。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance, commentary on market dynamics, and discussion of our opportunities and strategy, are based on current expectations, forecasts, and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which includes risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話轉給加里之前，我要提醒您，在這次通話中我們將做出一些前瞻性的陳述。這些聲明，包括我們的季度和年度指導、對市場動態的評論以及對我們的機會和策略的討論，都是基於對公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包括可能導致實際結果與今天討論的聲明存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that we'll post shortly after, are an important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them. Our forward-looking statements should also be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q -- 10-K, excuse me, and our 10-Q, which we expect to file with the SEC by this Thursday.

與我們的展望相關的假設，無論是在本次電話會議中提及的還是包含在我們即將發布的投資者介紹中，都是此類前瞻性陳述的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮這些假設。我們的前瞻性陳述也應結合我們最近的 10-Q（對不起，是 10-K）和 10-Q 中詳述的風險因素來看待，我們預計將於本週四向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交這些文件。

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. They'll ask that you limit yourselves to one question and one follow up. Also, in case there's a slightly longer pause than usual during Q&A, please note that our team is in two different locations for this call.

Ciena 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的資訊的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。像往常一樣，今天我們將盡可能多地進行問答。他們會要求你們只問一個問題並進行一次跟進。此外，如果在問答過程中出現比平常稍長的停頓，請注意我們的團隊在這次通話中位於兩個不同的地點。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給加里。

Thank you, and good morning, everybody.

謝謝大家，早安。

Today, we delivered strong fiscal first quarter results, including revenue of $1.07 billion, adjusted gross margin of 44.7%, and adjusted EPS of $0.64 per share. Positive demand dynamics drove very strong order flow in the quarter. Significantly, direct orders from cloud providers were half of overall orders in Q1, and we've had our strongest back to back quarters of orders from service providers in over two years.

今天，我們公佈了強勁的第一財季業績，包括 10.7 億美元的營收、44.7% 的調整後毛利率和 0.64 美元的調整後每股收益。積極的需求動態推動了本季非常強勁的訂單流。值得注意的是，來自雲端供應商的直接訂單佔第一季總訂單的一半，並且我們連續兩個季度從服務提供者獲得的訂單量創下了兩年多以來的最高紀錄。

This outstanding performance reflects balance, growth and strong momentum across all aspects of our business as we execute our strategy to take full advantage of the growth of cloud and AI traffic. Since speaking with you last in mid-December, we've seen the continuation of the positive demand dynamics that we've been discussing in recent quarters. This is playing out across our primary customer segments and geographies, and in both our foundational business and our market expansion opportunities.

這一出色的表現反映了我們執行策略以充分利用雲端和人工智慧流量成長的過程中，業務各個方面的平衡、成長和強勁勢頭。自從 12 月中旬上次與您交談以來，我們看到了最近幾季一直在討論的積極需求動態的延續。這體現在我們的主要客戶群和地區，以及我們的基礎業務和市場擴張機會。

The rapid expansion and distribution of AI training and influencing infrastructure is driving global investment in ultra scalable, high-performance networks, operated by both service providers and cloud providers. And as the global leader in high-speed connectivity, we are best positioned to partner with them on these critical infrastructure builds to help scale and monetize their networks.

人工智慧訓練和影響基礎設施的快速擴張和分佈正在推動全球對服務提供商和雲端提供商運營的超可擴展、高效能網路的投資。作為高速連接領域的全球領導者，我們最有能力與他們合作建立這些關鍵基礎設施，幫助他們擴大網路規模並獲利。

So, as we continue to execute our strategy and take full advantage of these opportunities, we remain focused on extending our leadership and growing market share in our core businesses, inclusive of [sub-C], long haul, metro DCI, and MOFN opportunities. And growing our addressable market into adjacencies, particularly inside and around the data center over time, as well as in metro routing, all areas where our foundational optical technologies and leadership provide a significant competitive advantage.

因此，隨著我們繼續執行我們的策略並充分利用這些機會，我們仍然專注於擴大我們在核心業務中的領導地位和不斷增長的市場份額，包括[sub-C]、長途、城域DCI和MOFN機會。並且隨著時間的推移，將我們的潛在市場擴展到鄰近領域，特別是資料中心內部和周圍，以及城域路由，所有這些領域中，我們的基礎光學技術和領導地位都提供了顯著的競爭優勢。

To best understand how our investments are fully aligned with these market dynamics and our customers' priorities, we believe that viewing our business through the lens of our major customer segments provides the most insight. So let's start with service providers.

為了最好地了解我們的投資如何與這些市場動態和客戶的優先事項完全一致，我們相信，透過主要客戶群的視角來觀察我們的業務可以提供最深刻的見解。那麼就讓我們從服務提供者開始吧。

The supply and demand dynamics that we experienced in previous periods continued to come into balance, and we believe service provider inventory digestion impacts are largely now complete. Accordingly, we saw ongoing improvement in Q1 in revenue and orders, with North America leading the way and international markets continuing to show positive progress.

我們在前期經歷的供需動態持續保持平衡，我們相信服務提供者庫存消化的影響現在已基本完成。因此，我們看到第一季營收和訂單持續改善，其中北美領先，國際市場繼續呈現積極進展。

Service provider revenue in Q1 increased 14% year over year, comprising approximately 51% of total revenue. Clearly, these customers are once again investing to scale their networks, specifically for the anticipated increase in cloud traffic and new AI workloads, including (inaudible) fun opportunities with the cloud providers. We've now seen a couple of quarters with an improving service provider trend line, and we believe these positive service provider spending dynamics will continue moving forward.

第一季服務提供者營收年增14%，約佔總營收的51%。顯然，這些客戶再次投資擴展他們的網絡，特別是為了應對預期的雲端流量和新的人工智慧工作負載的成長，包括與雲端供應商合作的（聽不清楚）有趣的機會。我們現在已經看到服務提供者趨勢線連續幾季有所改善，我們相信這些積極的服務提供者支出動態將繼續向前發展。

Moving now to cloud providers. We continue to broaden and deepen our relationships with cloud customers. In Q1, total direct cloud revenue comprised 32% of the total revenue, with five cloud providers in our top 10 customers for the quarter. AI is the key driver of scaling and provisioning these high-speed networks to support increased bandwidth demand and enable the monetization of AI today and well into the future.

現在轉向雲端提供者。我們不斷拓寬和深化與雲端客戶的關係。第一季度，直接雲端收入總額佔總收入的 32%，本季我們的前十大客戶中有五家雲端供應商。人工智慧是擴展和配置這些高速網路的關鍵驅動力，以支援不斷增長的頻寬需求並實現當前和未來的人工智慧貨幣化。

We expect these to be large, long-term investment plans over many years to come, as evidenced by the strong CapEx plans and strategic commentary that most cloud providers have recently announced relating to networks.

我們預計這將是未來多年的大型長期投資計劃，大多數雲端供應商最近宣布的與網路相關的強勁資本支出計劃和策略評論就證明了這一點。

Turning to the critical technologies that are required by both our service provider and cloud provider customers, we are seeing broad-based momentum again across our portfolio. WaveLogic 6 Extreme is off to an incredibly strong start in the marketplace, gaining momentum with customers who seek increased capacity and reduced space and power requirements in their networks.

談到我們的服務供應商和雲端供應商客戶所需的關鍵技術，我們再次看到整個產品組合的廣泛發展勢頭。WaveLogic 6 Extreme 在市場上取得了令人難以置信的強勁開局，並獲得了尋求增加網路容量、減​​少網路空間和電力需求的客戶青睞。

In Q1, we added 20 new customers for WaveLogic 6 E. And we continue to ship our WaveLogic 5 solution. In Q1, we reached more than 1,600 WaveLogic modems shipped worldwide, 160,000. Confirming the WaveLogic portfolio is the foundation for world-class network backbones for the AI and cloud economy, both terrestrial and subsea.

在第一季度，我們為 WaveLogic 6 E 增加了 20 個新客戶。而我們繼續提供 WaveLogic 5 解決方案。第一季度，WaveLogic 數據機的全球出貨量超過 1,600 台，達到 16 萬台。確認 WaveLogic 產品組合是陸地和海底人工智慧和雲端經濟世界級網路主幹的基礎。

And our intelligent line systems, including our RLS photonic platform and wave server wavelength solution, are designed for the type of traffic and applications that are emerging and are the preferred choice for both service providers and cloud customers alike. In fact, we have nearly 100 total customers now for RLS and more than 400 total for wave server.

我們的智慧線路系統，包括我們的 RLS 光子平台和波伺服器波長解決方案，是針對新興的流量和應用類型而設計的，是服務供應商和雲端客戶的首選。事實上，我們現在有近 100 個 RLS 客戶，還有 400 多個 Wave 伺服器客戶。

Importantly, our interconnect portfolio is gaining traction and represents a substantial growth opportunity for us moving forward, particularly in the context of AI within the metro data center campus and in the future inside the data center itself. As a reminder, interconnect is a general industry term to describe the infrastructure technologies that provide the connectivity between and within data centers. It includes both pluggables and component technologies.

重要的是，我們的互連產品組合正在獲得關注，並為我們未來的發展帶來了巨大的成長機會，特別是在城域資料中心園區內的人工智慧領域以及未來資料中心本身的人工智慧領域。提醒一下，互連是一個通用的行業術語，用於描述提供資料中心之間和資料中心內部連接的基礎設施技術。它包括可插入技術和組件技術。

Demand for our high-performing best-in-class pluggables is strong and growing. Q1 was our highest orders quarter yet for pluggables, as we continue to take share in this fast-growing market. We are also on track for general availability of our 800-gig WaveLogic 6 Nano pluggable solution in the first half of this calendar year and expect deployments later in the calendar year for metro DCI use cases.

市場對我們高性能、一流插拔式產品的需求強勁且不斷成長。第一季是我們迄今為止可插拔產品訂單最多的一個季度，我們繼續在這個快速成長的市場中佔據份額。我們也計劃在今年上半年全面推出 800 千兆 WaveLogic 6 Nano 可插拔解決方案，並預計在今年稍後部署用於城域 DCI 用例。

The WaveLogic 6 nanotechnology also supports the industry's first 1.6T coherent light solution for 2 kilometers to 20-kilometer campus applications, which will also be productized for deployment in the 2026 timeframe. In fact, we will also be showing the first live 1.6T coherent light solution demonstration at the upcoming OSC conference in San Francisco in early April. And we will be hosting investor meetings to provide further details about our ongoing R&D efforts in this area.

WaveLogic 6 奈米技術也支援業界首個適用於 2 公里至 20 公里校園應用的 1.6T 相干光解決方案，該解決方案也將在 2026 年實現產品化部署。事實上，我們也將在 4 月初於舊金山舉行的 OSC 會議上展示第一個現場 1.6T 相干光解決方案演示。我們將舉辦投資者會議，提供有關我們在該領域正在進行的研發工作的更多詳細資訊。

Before handing over to Jim, I'd summarize by saying that as the global leader in high-speed connectivity for both systems and the underlying technology, we are incredibly well positioned to partner with customers to address rapidly increasing bandwidth demands driven by cloud connectivity and AI.

在交給吉姆之前，我想總結一下，作為系統和底層技術高速連接的全球領導者，我們完全有能力與客戶合作，滿足由雲端連接和人工智慧驅動的快速增長的頻寬需求。

As a result, we have strong momentum across our business which is driving balanced growth and providing a solid visibility and confidence in our future. Jim, can you now take us through a more detailed readout of our financial performance in Q1, as well as our outlook? Jim?

因此，我們的整個業務都呈現出強勁勢頭，推動著平衡成長，並為我們的未來提供了堅實的可視性和信心。吉姆，您現在能否向我們詳細介紹一下我們第一季的財務表現以及前景？吉姆？

Thanks, Gary. Good morning, everyone. As Gary mentioned, we delivered strong fiscal first quarter financial results. Total revenue in Q1 was $1.07 billion. This included two 10%-plus customers, one cloud provider and one service provider.

謝謝，加里。大家早安。正如加里所提到的，我們第一季的財務業績表現強勁。第一季總營收為 10.7 億美元。其中包括兩家 10% 以上的客戶、一家雲端供應商和一家服務供應商。

Adjusted gross margin was 44.7%, driven by a few non-recurring events including software. Q1 adjusted operating expense was $347 million. With respect to profitability measures in Q1, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 12.3%, adjusted net income of $94 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.64.

調整後的毛利率為44.7%，受軟體等一些非經常性事件的影響。第一季調整後的營業費用為 3.47 億美元。就第一季的獲利指標而言，我們實現的調整後營業利潤率為 12.3%，調整後淨收入為 9,400 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 0.64 美元。

In addition, we generated $104 million in cash from operations. Adjusted EBITDA was $156 million. Finally, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion in cash and investments. We repurchased approximately 1 million shares for $79 million during the first quarter. We continue to target the repurchase of approximately $330 million total in fiscal year '25.

此外，我們還從營運中獲得了 1.04 億美元的現金。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.56 億美元。最後，我們在本季結束時擁有約 13 億美元的現金和投資。我們在第一季以 7900 萬美元回購了約 100 萬股。我們繼續設定目標，在 25 財年回購總額約為 3.3 億美元。

Turning to some additional highlights from the quarter, as Gary mentioned, we had a great quarter in optical. We have 25 total customers for WaveLogic 6 Extreme. Including large service providers like Lumen, Etisalat, Korea Telecom, Southern Cross, and Vocus, as well as several of the major cloud provider customers that are planning to standardize on this technology.

談到本季的一些其他亮點，正如加里所提到的，我們在光學領域度過了一個非常出色的季度。WaveLogic 6 Extreme 共有 25 位客戶。其中包括 Lumen、Etisalat、韓國電信、Southern Cross 和 Vocus 等大型服務供應商，以及計劃標準化該技術的幾家主要雲端供應商客戶。

We remain the only vendor in the market with a 1.6 terabit [RAM] solution and expect to hold that lead in this next generation of optical technology for at least two years. And pluggable momentum was strong in Q1, putting us well on track to at least double our revenue this year from fiscal 2024.

我們仍然是市場上唯一擁有 1.6 太比特 [RAM] 解決方案的供應商，並預計在下一代光學技術領域保持領先地位至少兩年。第一季的可插拔發展勢頭強勁，使我們預計從 2024 財年起將今年的收入至少翻一番。

In routing and switching, Q1 revenue was $93 million up 17% sequentially. The total count for our adaptive IP customers is now 390, including nearly 40 added during the first quarter. And we are winning new customers for our coherent routing solution, including international service providers and enterprise customers.

在路由和交換方面，第一季營收為 9,300 萬美元，季增 17%。我們的自適應 IP 客戶總數現在為 390 個，其中第一季新增了近 40 個。我們正在透過我們的相干路由解決方案贏得新客戶，包括國際服務供應商和企業客戶。

Other portfolio highlights from Q1 include platform software and services, including Navigator, had another good quarter with revenue up 6% year over year. Blue Planet quarterly revenue nearly doubled year over year.

第一季的其他投資組合亮點包括平台軟體和服務，其中 Navigator 又一個季度表現良好，營收年增 6%。藍色星球季度營收比去年同期幾乎翻了一番。

Turning now to guidance. Before I talk about the guide, I will say that we are certainly aware of the potential for disruption in the US and the international economy, given the prospect of additional tariffs and retaliatory actions. However, we firmly believe that bandwidth demand will continue to grow through this period. Given the fluidity and uncertainty surrounding the situation, our guide does not include the effects, if any, of additional tariffs.

現在轉向指導。在談論該指南之前，我想說，考慮到額外關稅和報復行動的前景，我們當然意識到美國和國際經濟可能會受到破壞。然而，我們堅信，在此期間頻寬需求將持續成長。鑑於情勢的流動性和不確定性，我們的指南不包括額外關稅的影響（如果有的話）。

For the fiscal second quarter, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $1.05 billion to $1.13 billion. We expect Q2 adjusted gross margin to be in the low 40% range. And we expect adjusted operating expense to be approximately $355 million.

對於第二財季，我們預計營收將在 10.5 億美元至 11.3 億美元之間。我們預計第二季調整後的毛利率將在 40% 以下。我們預計調整後的營運費用約為 3.55 億美元。

We are very encouraged by the strength in our business and the continuation of positive demand dynamics across all of our segments, and we are very confident in our well established position as the global leader in high-speed connectivity, as both our service provider and cloud provider customers invest at scale and monetize their networks in the AI era.

我們對我們的業務實力和所有部門持續的積極需求動態感到非常鼓舞，並且我們對我們作為高速連接全球領導者的既定地位非常有信心，因為我們的服務提供商和雲端供應商客戶都在人工智慧時代進行大規模投資並將其網路貨幣化。

With that momentum, though it's still early in the year, we are increasingly confident that we can deliver revenue growth toward the high end of our 8% to 11% guidance range for fiscal 2025. Also, for the year, we continue, as we said last quarter, to expect adjusted gross margin to be in the 42% to 44% range for the year and adjusted operating expense to average $350 million to $360 million per quarter.

憑藉這一勢頭，儘管現在還處於年初階段，但我們越來越有信心，我們可以實現 2025 財年收入增長達到 8% 至 11% 的指導範圍的高端。此外，正如我們上個季度所說，我們預計今年調整後的毛利率將在 42% 至 44% 之間，調整後的營運費用平均每季為 3.5 億美元至 3.6 億美元。

In closing, I'll say that the strength of orders across all our market segments and verticals indicates that our position in the market continues to improve.

最後，我想說，我們所有細分市場和垂直市場的訂單強勁表明我們在市場上的地位持續提高。

Our lead in technology, which we believe is sustainable, coupled with the depth and breadth of our customer relationships, sets Ciena up nicely for long-term growth.

我們相信，我們在技術上的領先地位是可持續的，再加上我們與客戶建立的深度和廣度，為 Ciena 的長期發展奠定了良好的基礎。

Michael, we'll now take questions from the sell-side analysts.

邁克爾，我們現在來回答賣方分析師的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Atif Malik, Citi.

（操作員指示）花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Hi, it's Adrienne Colby for Atif. Thank you for taking our question. I was hoping we could talk a little bit about the dynamics you were seeing in the cloud service provider segment. I'm interested in what the linearity of the order trends were in the quarter, if you saw any kind of a pause or a shift or signs that cloud customers are rethinking some of their strategy for the year.

大家好，我是 Atif 的 Adrienne Colby。感謝您回答我們的問題。我希望我們可以稍微談談您在雲端服務供應商領域看到的動態。我感興趣的是本季訂單趨勢的線性情況，您是否看到任何形式的停頓或轉變，或者有跡象表明雲端客戶正在重新考慮今年的一些策略。

If you want to, I'd take that. We've seen very solid order growth really around accelerating demand across multiple cloud players. We saw no linearity at all around that. In fact, we're probably seeing an increase in demand, which has actually continued right now into Q2. We've actually started Q2.

如果你願意的話，我會接受的。我們看到訂單量非常穩健地成長，這實際上源自於多個雲端運算參與者的需求加速成長。我們根本沒有看到任何線性關係。事實上，我們可能看到需求的成長，這種趨勢實際上已經持續到第二季​​。我們實際上已經開始了第二季。

Another way of addressing your question here is saying, Q2 we've started super strong with cloud providers, and we expect that to continue. And the fundamentals around that dynamics are driven by a multitude of things. One is machine to machine learning, we see expansion opportunities there, particularly in North America, where there's a need to basically, they can't get all the power and compute in one space.

回答你的問題的另一種方式是說，第二季度我們與雲端供應商的合作開始變得非常強勁，我們預計這種勢頭將持續下去。這種動態的基本面受到多種因素的驅動。一是機器對機器學習，我們看到了那裡的擴展機會，特別是在北美，那裡基本上有需求，他們無法在一個空間內獲得所有的能力和計算能力。

Therefore, it has to link up to multiple data centers, requiring low latency, high bandwidth solutions. And then globally, just the increase in cloud traffic and a move to inference, to link up all of these data centers requires a very large scale up and build of submarine systems, metro across the global landscape. We have seen absolutely no yielding in that at all.

因此，它必須連接到多個資料中心，需要低延遲、高頻寬的解決方案。然後在全球範圍內，僅是雲端流量的增加和推理的轉變，要連接所有這些資料中心就需要在全球範圍內大規模地擴大和建造海底系統和城域網路。我們根本沒有看到任何讓步。

In fact, I'd describe it as an acceleration, and when you think about it, they need to connect these data centers if they're going to monetize any of this. And in fact, the -- if we get more proliferation of reasoning models, that's just going to drive more traffic, frankly.

事實上，我將其描述為一種加速，當你考慮它時，如果他們要將其中的任何一個貨幣化，他們需要連接這些資料中心。事實上，坦白說，如果我們的推理模型更加多樣化，那隻會帶來更多的流量。

One thing I'd add to that, Gary, is that in a more general sense, our orders for the quarter were more than double over the last year during the same quarter and well above our revenue, and about half of those orders were cloud, so just accentuates the comments that Gary made.

加里，我想補充一點，從更普遍的意義上講，我們本季度的訂單量比去年同期增加了一倍多，遠高於我們的收入，其中大約一半的訂單是雲，所以這更加強調了加里的評論。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Meta Marshall, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

Maybe to start with just in terms of -- following up on the previous question but just how do you see seasonality of cloud customers, obviously, it's kind of down quarter over quarter, but you noted very strong order activities, so just what you're seeing in terms of seasonality.

也許首先從 - 繼續上一個問題，但您如何看待雲端客戶的季節性，顯然，它逐季度下降，但您注意到訂單活動非常強勁，所以您看到的是季節性。

And then maybe as a second question. You noted no further tariffs contemplated, but just what are you assuming for tariffs as announced and just how are you looking to mitigate those either through price or moving kind of distribution?

然後也許是第二個問題。您提到沒有考慮進一步徵收關稅，但您對已宣布的關稅有何假設？您打算如何透過價格或轉移分銷方式來降低關稅？

Why don't I take the first part of that and then Jim can take the second. On the cloud side, we're not -- given the scale up and the nature of it, when -- I think we're not really susceptible to seasonality. You can have some ebbs and flows, based on the end of the calendar year and shipments and things. But I -- on the whole, I don't think you're going to see a lot of seasonality here. I think it's largely up into the right, with a few variables quarter by quarter.

為什麼我不先做第一部分，然後吉姆再做第二部分？在雲端，考慮到規模和性質，我認為我們並不會真正受到季節性的影響。根據日曆年末、出貨情況等，您可能會遇到一些起伏。但總的來說，我認為你不會在這裡看到太多的季節性。我認為它基本上在右邊，每個季度都會有一些變數。

I think there's an increasing demand to make sure that they've got the right kind of scaled infrastructure and connectivity to be able to take advantage of this, because this traffic is now really -- another way to simply think about it is this stuff is now beginning to come outside of the data center, both in terms of training and in terms of inference and just the general growth in cloud traffic, and I think, that's going to be a very consistent over, I think, the next few years.

我認為，越來越需要確保他們擁有正確規模的基礎設施和連接，以便能夠利用這一點，因為這種流量現在真的——另一種簡單的思考方式是，這些東西現在開始出現在數據中心之外，無論是在訓練方面，還是在推理方面，以及雲流量的總體增長方面，我認為，在未來幾年，這將是非常一致的。

And on the tariff situation, Meta, as you can appreciate, it is very fluid and dynamic. There have been lots of changes and decisions -- lots of changes to decisions made on tariffs over the last few weeks. We've certainly been very busy looking at how we will mitigate the tariffs, if and when they come into play. And we do have a resilient supply chain that allows for this kind of mitigation depending upon the shape of the ultimate tariffs. We'll work with our customers for reimbursement of tariffs, so we just didn't put it in there. We'll give you a view of that when and if we have certainty.

關於關稅情況，Meta，正如你所了解的，它非常不穩定且動態。過去幾週，關稅方面的決定發生了許多變化和變化——很多變化。我們確實一直在忙於研究如何在關稅生效時減輕其影響。我們確實擁有一條有彈性的供應鏈，可以根據最終關稅的形式來實現這種緩解。我們將與客戶合作退還關稅，所以我們沒有把它放在那裡。當我們有確定性時，我們會向您提供相關觀點。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Amit Daryanani, Evercore.

阿米特·達亞納尼 (Amit Daryanani)，Evercore。

Thanks for taking my question. I guess maybe just to start on gross margins, Jim, you sort of mentioned there was some one-time benefits in the Jan quarter you folks had. So could you just talk about very strong performance and gross margins in the Jan quarter, sort of what drove that upside and what were the things that were perhaps non-reoccurring that were not sustained in [out] quarters.

感謝您回答我的問題。我想也許只是從毛利率開始，吉姆，你提到你們在一月份季度有一些一次性收益。那麼，您能否談談一月份季度的強勁業績和毛利率，是什麼推動了這一增長，以及哪些因素可能不會再發生，而在本季度沒有持續下去。

Yes, I think you can appreciate from past quarters that gross margin is difficult for us to call precisely because there are any number of things that can happen during a quarter that can -- that are unexpected. In this most recent quarter, we had several unexpected one-time events, including some software events that drove it up.

是的，我想您可以從過去幾季中看出，我們很難準確預測毛利率，因為在一個季度中可能會發生很多意想不到的事情。在最近這個季度，我們遇到了幾起意外的一次性事件，包括一些推動其發展的軟體事件。

We also had a good performance on the supply chain in terms of overheads. So all of those things were good, and we did greatly exceed the number we put out for you. This quarter, we don't expect those effects to occur to recur in Q2. We are returning to our guide of low 40s for Q2. Remember, we said at the beginning of the year, the first half of the year was going to be in the low 40s; second half of the year was going to be toward the mid-40s, and we'd end up the year at 42% to 43%.

我們在供應鏈管理費用方面也表現良好。所以所有這些都很好，而且我們確實大大超出了我們為您提供的數量。本季度，我們預計這些影響不會在第二季度再次出現。我們將恢復第二季 40 出頭的指導價。記住，我們在年初就說過，今年上半年的氣溫將在 40 華氏度以下；預計下半年增長率將達到 45% 左右，全年增長率將達到 42% 至 43%。

We still believe that to be true. Over the long term, we're hopeful that margins will improve.

我們仍然相信這是事實。長遠來看，我們希望利潤率能夠提高。

Fair enough. And then, if I kind of step back and think about your commentary around auto growth and the cloud demand, it all seems like up into the right. I was wondering if you kind of stack that up against your April quarter guide, which I think is calling for revenue growth of low-single digits 2% sequentially.

很公平。然後，如果我退一步思考您對汽車成長和雲端需求的評論，一切似乎都是正確的。我想知道您是否將其與 4 月份季度指南進行比較，我認為該指南預計收入將環比增長 2% 左右。

I think, historically, it tends to be up more like 67% mid- to high-single digits. So maybe talk about the guide for April seems to be a little bit lower than normal seasonality despite some very positive commentary on audit and cloud from your side.

我認為，從歷史上看，它的漲幅往往更接近 67% 左右的中高個位數。因此，儘管您對審計和雲端運算給出了一些非常積極的評價，但 4 月的指南似乎比正常季節性略低。

I'd respond to that this way, Ahmit. We used to have a reasonably predictable seasonality in our order and revenue flow when our business was service providers. Now our business is roughly half driven by cloud providers, and their order flow and the resulting revenue is more a function of what projects they're working on at any point in time as opposed to annual seasonality.

我會這樣回答，阿米特。當我們的業務是服務提供者時，我們的訂單和收入流具有相當可預測的季節性。現在，我們的業務大約有一半是由雲端提供者推動的，他們的訂單流和由此產生的收入更多地取決於他們在任何時間點正在進行的項目，而不是年度季節性。

So my own feeling is that you shouldn't compare year over year here that much in terms of overall revenue. You should look at the trend. And as you know, we're calling 8% to 11% for this year and actually we're going to put 10% toward the higher end of the quarter for the year.

因此我個人的感覺是，你不應該在總體收入方面進行那麼多的逐年比較。你應該看看這個趨勢。如您所知，我們預計今年的成長率為 8% 至 11%，實際上，我們將在本季末將成長率設定為 10%。

The other thing I'd say I made is, obviously we had -- we've said we've had strong order flows, obviously greater than one, much greater than one, and our backlog continues to increase. So I think we're setting up for a strong second half as well. And just to clarify one point, the guide for the year on the gross margin is 42% to 44% in total.

我想說的另一件事是，顯然我們有 - 我們說過我們有強勁的訂單流，顯然大於一個，遠遠大於一個，而且我們的積壓訂單還在繼續增加。所以我認為我們也為強勁的下半年做好了準備。需要澄清一點，今年的毛利率預期整體為 42% 至 44%。

Thank you, Gary. I'm misspoke.

謝謝你，加里。我說錯了。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

Thanks for the question. This is Joe Cardoso on for Samik. I guess first one from my end, as you're thinking about the updated full year outlook for revenue, I guess is there any change in terms of how you're thinking about the composition between the customer verticals that you serve? And maybe more specifically, in terms of guiding or raising the guide here, is there a specific customer vertical that is tracking ahead of your plans relative to 90 days ago, or is this more broad-based in terms of what you're seeing across the verticals and the trends you're seeing? And then I have a quick follow up.

謝謝你的提問。這是喬·卡多索 (Joe Cardoso) 代替薩米克 (Samik)。我想首先從我的角度來說，當您考慮更新後的全年收入前景時，我想您對所服務的客戶垂直行業的組成的看法是否有任何變化？也許更具體地說，就指導或提高指導而言，是否有一個特定的客戶垂直領域相對於 90 天前領先於您的計劃，或者就您在垂直領域和趨勢方面所看到的情況而言，這是否更為廣泛？然後我有一個快速的跟進。

Yeah, let me take that first and then Jim may add. I would say, what's driving the increase for the year, I would say that's two things. One, I think increasing confidence around the service provider recovery. We've seen multiple data points around that and it's quite broad, but I think rather -- in terms of getting to the upside, that's largely all cloud. That's largely cloud.

是的，讓我先回答這個問題，然後吉姆可能會補充。我想說，推動今年成長的因素有兩點。首先，我認為對服務提供者復甦的信心正在增強。我們已經看到了圍繞該問題的多個數據點，而且它相當廣泛，但我認為，就上行而言，這基本上都是雲。這主要是雲。

I mean, we've got increasing confidence the service providers are going to do what we thought they'd do in terms of the recovery, which is pretty broad-based, and I think the additional piece that would take it closer to our higher end of our range is really driven by cloud.

我的意思是，我們越來越有信心，服務提供者將會像我們想像的那樣，在復甦方面做得相當廣泛，而且我認為，使它更接近我們產品範圍高端的附加部分實際上是由雲端驅動的。

No, got it, thank you. And then for my follow up, I'm just curious if we can get an update on how you're seeing the pluggable opportunity unfold for the year. It's -- anecdotally it kind of sounds like you guys are more confident around revenues here at least doubling for the year. So just curious, is that fair in terms of seeing a better demand in terms of 90 days ago? And then as you think about the expectations for the year anyway, just kind of size the contribution between how much is coming from Nano 5 versus 6 in terms of what you're embedding into the outlook.

不，明白了，謝謝。然後，對於我的後續問題，我只是好奇我們是否可以了解您如何看待今年可插拔機會的發展。從傳聞來看，你們似乎對今年的收入至少翻倍更有信心。所以只是好奇，從 90 天前的需求更好的角度來看，這是否公平？然後，當您考慮今年的預期時，只需根據嵌入到展望中的內容，估算 Nano 5 與 6 的貢獻大小。

I think, Jim -- I think, well, I mentioned it in the comments where we had record order flows for pluggables in the quarter, and I think we're increasingly seeing as pluggables move towards more higher speeds. That really plays into our portfolio. So I think we've said, we expect it to double for the year, and we're absolutely well on well on track to doing that. Scott, is there any other -- anything else you'd add there?

我認為，吉姆 - 我認為，好吧，我在評論中提到過，我們在本季度的可插拔設備訂單流創下了紀錄，而且我認為我們越來越多地看到可插拔設備朝著更高的速度發展。這確實對我們的投資組合產生了影響。所以我想我們已經說過，我們預計今年的銷售額將翻一番，而且我們絕對有望實現這一目標。史考特，還有其他——您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah, a couple of things. First of all, I think, we're seeing growing momentum, and we expect that momentum to accelerate as the demand for higher speed pluggables becomes the reality with the introduction of our WaveLogic 6 and 800-gig per plug, and beyond that 1.6 terabits. So we're pretty bullish about that and our ability to gain share in that space. And a reminder that that is incremental opportunity for us as a company.

是的，有幾件事。首先，我認為，我們看到了不斷增長的勢頭，隨著我們推出 WaveLogic 6 和每插頭 800 千兆位元以及超過 1.6 太比特的更高速度可插拔設備的需求成為現實，我們預計這種勢頭將會加速。因此，我們對此以及我們在該領域獲得份額的能力非常樂觀。提醒一下，這對我們公司來說是一個增量機會。

And then, following on from that, we do see a continued march of coherent technologies being the preferred option in different parts of the network. We've seen it in the [WAN] for many years. We've seen it now in metro DCI for the last couple of seasons, and we firmly believe we're going to see that in the [campus], the 2- to 20-kilometer space, over the next couple of years, and, being the leaders in coherent, that sets us up well for that.

然後，由此可見，相干技術將繼續成為網路不同部分的首選方案。我們已經在 [WAN] 中看到它很多年了。過去幾個季度，我們已經在 DCI 大都會區看到了這種情況，我們堅信，未來幾年，我們將在 [校園] 2 至 20 公里的空間內看到這種情況，作為連貫性的領導者，這為我們做好了準備。

Your question on WaveLogic 5 versus WaveLogic 6, look, we've done this many generations over in terms of coherent technologies. It always takes a couple of years for the latest and greatest technology coming out of the machine to become the dominant volume contributor. So we would expect WaveLogic 5 to be the volume dominant contributor through 2025.

您關於 WaveLogic 5 與 WaveLogic 6 的問題，請看，就相干技術而言，我們已經做了很多世代了。最新、最偉大的機器技術總是需要幾年的時間才能成為主要的銷售貢獻者。因此，我們預期 WaveLogic 5 將在 2025 年成為銷售的主要貢獻者。

We do, however, those new technologies are the vehicle that we use to compete for new business, so it's incredibly important in terms of opening new footprint. It just takes a while for it to become the volume contributor.

然而，這些新技術是我們用來爭取新業務的工具，因此對於開闢新業務而言非常重要。它只是需要一段時間才能成為銷售貢獻者。

No, understood, and then I appreciate all the color, guys. Thank you.

不，明白了，然後我很欣賞所有的色彩，夥計們。謝謝。

Simon Leopold, Raymond James.

西蒙李奧波德、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Thanks for taking the question. Look, I understand the tariffs are very fluid and change by the minute some days, but I guess what I'm trying to get a better understanding of, I feel like your supply chain and contract manufacturer relationships have been re-engineered somewhat and changing apart from tariffs. So if you could help us in understanding maybe what exposure to Mexico and how you envision this changing because I believe you're moving more into Southeast Asia. So any way to sort of quantify the risk if the tariffs stick as they are today and what else is going on in your supply chain reengineering?

感謝您回答這個問題。聽著，我知道關稅非常不穩定，有時每分鐘都在變化，但我想我試圖更好地理解的是，我覺得你的供應鏈和合約製造商關係已經進行了某種程度的重新設計，並且除了關稅之外還在發生變化。因此，如果您能幫助我們了解墨西哥的曝光度以及您對這種變化的設想，因為我相信您正在更多地進入東南亞。那麼，如果關稅維持現狀，有什麼方法可以量化風險嗎？你們的供應鏈重組還有哪些進展？

We've designed our supply chain for resilience, so we have the capability to manufacture in a lot of different places, just about all of our products. Our supply chain comes from Mexico, Thailand, Canada, India. I think that lists them all for now. And we do have a concentration today in Mexico and Thailand, but we do have the capability to move that around depending upon what the shape of the ultimate tariffs are.

我們設計的供應鏈具有彈性，因此我們有能力在許多不同的地方生產幾乎所有的產品。我們的供應鏈來自墨西哥、泰國、加拿大、印度。我認為現在這些都已經列出了。目前，我們的重點是墨西哥和泰國，但我們有能力根據最終關稅的形式來調整這項策略。

(multiple speakers) A couple things to note, Simon, on the -- just to follow on from Jim, a couple things to note in terms of the architecture of the supply chain and we've taken steps over the last couple of years to take -- direct control over our component and feed into that supply chain so that we have the flexibility to direct it to different locations and contract manufacturers around the world to take advantage of the resilience that Jim talked about.

（多位發言者）西蒙，在吉姆的發言之後，有幾點需要注意，就供應鏈架構而言，我們在過去幾年中已採取措施直接控制我們的組件並將其輸入到供應鏈中，以便我們能夠靈活地將其引導到世界各地的不同地點和合同製造商，以利用吉姆談到的彈性。

And just a reminder, I think many of you know because we had the conversation in the past, but our architecture, we own all the test assets, so we have the ability to invoke that flexibility over time and move the production around the world. Obviously it's shorter time intervals where we have existing capacity for a given product. And that -- the time intervals will lengthen if we have to go to a new location, but we do have that capability.

提醒一下，我想你們很多人都知道，因為我們過去進行過討論，但是我們的架構，我們擁有所有的測試資產，所以我們有能力隨著時間的推移調用這種靈活性並將生產轉移到世界各地。顯然，我們針對特定產品擁有現有產能的時間間隔較短。如果我們必須前往一個新的地點，時間間隔就會延長，但我們確實有這種能力。

Yeah, thank you --

是的，謝謝--

Simon, it wouldn't be (multiple speakers) --

西蒙，不會的（多位發言者）——

I was going to say, Simon, it wouldn't be useful for us to quantify these exposures because it's very dynamic and we have the ability to move things around. So, as I said, when we have certainty about the effects of these tariffs, we will update you as appropriate.

我想說的是，西蒙，量化這些風險對我們來說是沒有用的，因為它非常動態，我們有能力改變事物。因此，正如我所說，當我們確定這些關稅的影響時，我們會適時向您通報最新情況。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Tal Liani, Bank of America.

塔爾·利亞尼（Tal Liani），美國銀行。

I have a few small questions kind of. What are the applications for WaveLogic? Why is it growing and, where do you see it in the network? And the second question is about pluggables. Can you, same question kind of, is it because -- is the growth because of the launch of 800GB or is it in 400GB and are you taking share from Cisco? The market share data shows that Cisco was very strong in 400GB. So can you give us a little bit more on pluggables? And I have one little question at the end.

我有幾個小問題。WaveLogic 有哪些應用？它為什麼會成長？您在網路的什麼位置看到它？第二個問題是關於可插入式的。您能否問同樣的問題，是因為——成長是因為推出了 800GB 還是因為推出了 400GB，並且您是否從思科手中奪取了份額？市佔率數據顯示思科在400GB領域實力非常強大。那麼，能否向我們詳細介紹一下可插拔產品呢？最後我還有一個小問題。

Yes, certainly, Tal. So first of all, starting with our traditional core strength in our business and long haul submarine, metro regional networks, we're seeing tremendous demand for increased traffic on those networks driven by all the cloud and AI dynamics that we've talked about on the call. We see it coming at us in terms of demand for wavelengths in various different forms, whether it be pluggables or embedded in our systems. And we see it in tremendous demand for lighting new fibers with our line systems and in particular our next generation one RLS. So that's the first place where we're seeing it from an application set perspective.

是的，當然，塔爾。首先，從我們業務中的傳統核心優勢以及長途海底、城域區域網路開始，我們看到，在我們在電話會議上討論的所有雲端和人工智慧動態的推動下，這些網路的流量成長有著巨大的需求。我們看到，對於各種不同形式的波長的需求正在湧現，無論是可插入的還是嵌入到我們的系統中的。我們發現，使用我們的線路系統（尤其是下一代 RLS）來照明新光纖的需求龐大。這是我們第一次從應用程式集的角度看到它。

Second place for us is around the metro DCI space, and remember, that wasn't -- if you go back four or five years, that wasn't really the domain of coherent technologies. It's become the de facto way to deliver it. That's where the pluggable opportunity has really -- pluggable coherent opportunity has really been over the last couple of seasons. We serve that with our WaveLogic 5 and we weren't first to market with that technology, but we have had a growing share and if you look at the Q4 reports, you see our share substantially growing, and we think that's going to grow substantially in 2025 and we'll continue to grow as the data rates go from 400GB to, as you mentioned, 800GB or 1.6GB eventually there as well.

對我們來說，第二位是城域 DCI 領域，請記住，那不是——如果你回顧四、五年前，那實際上並不是相干技術的領域。它已成為事實上的交付方式。這就是可插拔機會真正存在的地方——過去幾個賽季可插拔連貫機會確實存在的地方。我們透過 WaveLogic 5 來實現這一點，我們並不是第一個將這項技術推向市場的公司，但我們的份額一直在增長，如果你看一下第四季度報告，你會發現我們的份額大幅增長，我們認為到 2025 年我們的份額還會大幅增長，而且隨著數據速率從 400GB 增加到你提到的 1.60GB

So that's here now. That is really mostly net new business for us because we never really had exposure in the past to that metro DCI use case. Looking more into the future, we do see that continued march of coherent being relevant to their high-speed data interconnect. The next place that's going to hit, we've been saying this for a while, but no others in the industry have joined us in saying it is in the 2- to 20-kilometer campus data center interconnect, which has not been coherent in the past.

現在就在這裡。對我們來說，這實際上主要是淨新業務，因為我們過去從未真正接觸過城域 DCI 用例。展望未來，我們確實看到相干技術與高速資料互連的持續發展。下一個要衝擊的地方，我們已經說了一段時間了，但是業內沒有其他人加入我們的說法，它是在 2 到 20 公里的校園數據中心互連中，這在過去是不連貫的。

We would expect to start seeing revenue in our business in 2026 on that use case, and those all of that is included in our three-year guide. We have a further belief system beyond that, that march of coherent is not going to stop at the walls of the data center that is going to bleed into the data center as bandwidth rates increase and the technical challenge of servicing those bandwidth rates gets larger.

我們預計在 2026 年我們的業務將從該用例開始獲得收入，所有這些都包含在我們的三年指南中。除此之外，我們還有一個更深的信念體系，那就是一致性的進程不會止步於資料中心的牆壁，隨著頻寬速率的增加和服務這些頻寬速率的技術挑戰變得越來越大，一致性的進程將滲透到資料中心。

That's a little bit further out in the future. We do believe that that is going to happen and we, being the leader is incoherent, that'll benefit us, but from a timing perspective, it's a little bit beyond what our three-year guide was. So hopefully that helps you in terms of --

這還只是稍微遙遠的未來。我們確實相信這將會發生，而且我們作為領導者是語無倫次的，這將使我們受益，但從時間角度來看，這有點超出了我們的三年指導範圍。希望這能對你有幫助--

Perfect. Thanks for the elaborated answer.

完美的。感謝您詳細的回答。

Services. Last year was a big year, like a big quarter -- same quarter last year was a big quarter for service growth. This quarter it grew 2.5%, and I see that the growth kind of decelerated throughout the year, 12%, then 5%, then 3.5%, 2.5% now. What are the trends in services?

服務。去年是重要的一年，就像一個重要的季度——去年同一季度是服務成長的重要季度。本季成長了 2.5%，我發現全年的成長速度有所放緩，先是 12%，然後是 5%，然後是 3.5%，現在是 2.5%。服務業的趨勢是什麼？

Generally speaking, our services business has grown, and it's grown roughly correlative to the optical growth. I would say that we've had a lot of opportunities to help our cloud providers, most recently in building up their networks because they don't necessarily have all the resources to do all the building and implementation that they need in order to get their networks right. So we're very happy with our services business, and we think it's going to grow for the future. All of the sequential movements are basically just noise.

整體來說，我們的服務業務有所成長，並且與光學業務的成長大致同步。我想說，我們有很多機會幫助我們的雲端供應商，最近一次是建立他們的網絡，因為他們不一定擁有所有資源來完成他們所需的所有建設和實施，以使他們網絡正確。因此，我們對我們的服務業務非常滿意，我們認為它未來會繼續成長。所有連續的動作基本上都只是噪音。

One thing I -- sorry Tal, one thing I'd just add to that is we are seeing an uptick and it hasn't flowed through the revenues yet, probably, but in installation services both as Jim said, for the cloud players and also the service providers, so it is a bit of a sort of a proxy for the consumption and increase of the -- and build out of the networks is that the ramp in our installation services.

抱歉，塔爾，我想補充一點，我們看到了成長，但可能還沒有體現在收入上，而是體現在安裝服務上，就像吉姆說的，對於雲端運算供應商和服務供應商來說都是如此，所以它有點像是網路消費和建置成長的一種代表，而網路建置的成長就是我們安裝服務的成長。

So, Jim, the range for year-over-year growth in the last four quarters was very big from 2% to 12%. What's a good assumption for us for kind of steady-state growth, ignoring all the mountains and valleys? What's a good assumption for services growth annual growth?

吉姆，過去四個季度的同比增長幅度很大，從 2% 到 12%。對我們來說，忽略所有的高山和低谷，對於穩定成長的一個好的假設是什麼？對於服務業年增率，一個好的假設是什麼？

I wouldn't use any particular quarter. What I would use is, generally speaking, our services revenue is going to grow approximately as our optical business grows over time. It might in any given quarter grow faster or slower given what's going on with particular projects, but I don't think it's a bad proxy. Whatever your assumption is about optical growth, to use the same for services growth.

我不會使用任何特定的季度。一般來說，隨著我們的光學業務隨著時間的推移而成長，我們的服務收入也會隨之成長。根據特定專案的進展情況，它在任何一個季度的成長速度可能會更快或更慢，但我不認為這是一個糟糕的指標。無論您對光學成長的假設是什麼，都可以將其用於服務成長。

Got it. Okay.

知道了。好的。

Tim Long, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

This is Alyssa Shreves on for Tim Long. I just had a quick question on the service provider business. Now with the kind of gradual recovery you've seen in service provider, can you talk about the MOFN opportunities there? Should we still expect this to be kind of around 10% to 15% of telco? Just trying to get any color there. And then just a quick question on India, how are you guys viewing India recovery this year upside there?

我是 Alyssa Shreves，為 Tim Long 主持節目。我只是想問一個關於服務提供者業務的簡單問題。現在，您看到服務提供者正在逐步復甦，您能談談那裡的 MOFN 機會嗎？我們是否仍應預期這一比例將達到電信公司的 10% 到 15% 左右？只是想在那裡得到任何顏色。然後我想問關於印度的一個簡單的問題，你們如何看待印度今年的復甦？

Well, we're going to take the -- the MOFN, we've generally said, certainly in the last sort of 12, 18 months, it's probably about 10%-plus of our Service Provider business. I think that's going to increase over the next year the 18 months. We're seeing a real expansion in opportunity around the globe for these buildouts, which is very consistent with the cloud players wanting to build out their global network capabilities, and that's encompassing submarine. It's encompassing a lot of geographies around the world, Europe, Middle East, Asia, India.

好吧，我們將採取 - MOFN，我們通常會說，當然在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，它可能占我們服務提供者業務的 10％ 以上。我認為在接下來的 18 個月裡這個數字還會增加。我們看到，在全球範圍內，這些建設的機會正在真正擴大，這與雲端運算參與者希望建立其全球網路能力（包括潛艇）非常一致。它涵蓋了世界各地的許多地區，歐洲、中東、亞洲、印度。

So I would expect that to increase over time. You said 10% to 15%, I would even, potentially say over the next 18 months or so could be as high as, 10% to 20% given the activity that we're that that we're seeing, and they want to participate in the ecosystem build out of this. And there are large parts of the world where, for various reasons, the cloud players don't want to have the regulatory challenges of a license and they need to provide the right kind of capacity to enable their business and their connectivity to data center around our consumers. And so, I think this is a multi-year, expansion on MOFN.

因此我預計這一數字會隨著時間的推移而增加。您說的是 10% 到 15%，我甚至可能會說，在未來 18 個月左右，考慮到我們所看到的活動，這個比例可能會高達 10% 到 20%，而且他們希望參與由此構建的生態系統。在世界上的大部分地區，由於各種原因，雲端運算服務供應商不想面臨許可證的監管挑戰，他們需要提供適當的容量來支援他們的業務並與消費者周圍的資料中心建立連接。所以，我認為這是 MOFN 的多年擴展。

And on India, as you say, it's been a couple of years of kind of digestion where they moved to 5G. I think we're now seeing an improving pipeline there of build out. Some of that, again, to your earlier question is driven by MOFN, a lot of cloud activity in India, fastest growing internet market in the world. And so, we feel pretty bullish around India, and we'd expect it to be up for the year by the time we come out of Q4.

正如您所說，印度經過了幾年的消化過程才轉向 5G。我認為我們現在看到那裡的建設管道正在不斷改善。再次回答您先前的問題，其中一些是由 MOFN 推動的，印度是世界上成長最快的網路市場，有大量的雲端活動。因此，我們對印度市場非常看好，我們預計到第四季結束時，印度市場全年的銷售量將會上漲。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

I'd just add that we have great positions with all of the three or four major operators in India, and I think that'll be a real source of growth for us for the next few years.

我想補充一點，我們與印度所有三、四家主要營運商都保持著良好的合作關係，我認為這將成為我們未來幾年真正的成長來源。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ruben Roy, Stifel.

魯本·羅伊（Ruben Roy），Stifel。

Gary, maybe to stick with the international service providers team, I'm wondering if you have some updated thoughts for us on the Huawei -- potential for Huawei replacement across various geographies now that inventories have normalized and supply chains have normalized. Any updates there, it sounds like there might be some movement, so just wondering if that's at all -- if there are any assumptions with that replacement cycle for your next three-year outlook.

加里，也許是為了繼續與國際服務提供者團隊合作，我想知道您是否對華為有一些最新的想法——現在庫存和供應鏈已經正常化，華為在各個地區都有可能被取代。有任何更新嗎？聽起來好像可能會有一些動靜，所以只是想知道是否有任何關於未來三年更換週期的假設。

Okay. Now, I think we've always said this, the greatest opportunity really is in Europe, and that remains the case. It is a multi-year opportunity. This is sort of -- they have a lot of infrastructure here. It's integrated into their back office. And there's not the obvious sort of free cash flows immediate to be able to rip all that stuff out. So you've got operational issues, you've got capital issues. And that's what's taken -- taking a long time. And I think just by its very nature.

好的。現在，我想我們一直在說，最大的機會確實在歐洲，而且情況仍然如此。這是一個多年的機會。這有點像——他們在這裡有很多基礎設施。它已整合到他們的後台辦公室。並且沒有明顯的立即的自由現金流來將所有這些東西清除掉。所以你遇到了營運問題，遇到了資本問題。這就是所花費的時間——很長。我認為這只是它的本質。

So I think, you've still got a multi-year opportunity in front of us around the Huawei replacement. You are seeing it happen. We are winning those deals, more than our fair share of that, particularly in Europe, and I think that's going to be a tailwind for us, as the service providers recover over the next one to three years.

因此我認為，在華為替代產品方面，我們仍然擁有多年的機會。你正在目睹它的發生。我們贏得的交易比我們應得的份額還要多，特別是在歐洲，我認為這對我們來說將是一個順風，因為服務提供者將在未來一到三年內復甦。

Thank you, Gary, and I had a follow up for Scott, I think. And Scott, kind of considering some of your commentary on longer-term potential opportunities inside the data center, there's been a lot of chatter in recent weeks and months around CPO, and I assume we're going to hear more about that over the next several weeks.

謝謝你，加里，我想我已經跟進了斯科特的情況。斯科特，考慮到您對資料中心內部長期潛在機會的一些評論，最近幾周和幾個月來圍繞 CPO 有很多討論，我想我們將在接下來的幾週內聽到更多關於這方面的討論。

What are your thoughts there, again thinking through sort of longer-term prospects for Ciena either with you know transceivers or ingredients that make up transceivers inside the data center. CPO, an opportunity, a threat, or neutral?

您對此有何看法？再次思考 Ciena 的長期前景，無論是收發器還是構成資料中心內收發器的元件。CPO，是機會、威脅，還是中性？

Thanks for the question. Yeah. So, if you take a step back, think of whether it's CPO or various other different packaged optics, LPOs, that all speaks to the industry trying to innovate around solving the challenge of continued increase in demand for scale. And that's scale and compute but also scale in terms of the high speed, data interconnects. And clearly, our -- at Ciena we're more interested in the high-speed data interconnect piece of that.

謝謝你的提問。是的。因此，如果你退一步思考，想想無論是 CPO 還是其他各種不同的封裝光學元件、LPO，它們都表明該行業正在努力創新，以解決規模需求持續成長的挑戰。這就是規模和運算，也是高速資料互連方面的規模。顯然，在 Ciena，我們對高速資料互連部分更感興趣。

All the applications I talked about coherent sort of having an expanded market perspective, I don't think the CPO conversation has any impact at all on those. The CPO -- we've never said, by the way, given that -- even given the march of coherent becoming more and more relevant up to the walls of the data center and inside the data center, we never said IMDD or [directed] tech was going to go away.

我談到的所有應用程式都具有擴大的市場視角，我認為 CPO 對話對這些不會產生任何影響。順便說一句，我們從來沒有說過 CPO，即使考慮到連貫性在資料中心牆壁和資料中心內部變得越來越重要，我們也從來沒有說過 IMDD 或 [定向] 技術將會消失。

CPO and the other different flavors of it is at a really high level is a repackaging of that IMDD technology to solve for the scale issue. We think there are going to be other challenges there as well, and we think, some of the component technology that we've had to solve for inside of coherent may have a play as people Try to figure that out as well. So we see an opportunity to play both sides of the street.

CPO 及其它不同風格處於非常高的水平，是對 IMDD 技術的重新包裝，以解決規模問題。我們認為那裡還會有其他挑戰，我們認為，我們必須在連貫性中解決的一些組件技術可能會發揮作用，因為人們也在嘗試解決這個問題。因此，我們看到了在兩邊都開展合作的機會。

Coherent as it comes inside the data center and then as they try to solve some of these scale problems in the IMDD world, we have some value there as well. Those are conversations that are ongoing, none of that inside the data center stuff that is in our numbers right now.

當它在資料中心內部出現時，當他們試圖解決 IMDD 世界中的一些規模問題時，我們在那裡也具有一定的價值。這些都是正在進行的對話，目前我們的資料中還不存在資料中心內部的內容。

Right. Thanks a lot for the details, Scott.

正確的。非常感謝你的詳細信息，斯科特。

Tim Savageaux, Northland Capital Markets.

北國資本市場 (Northland Capital Markets) 的 Tim Savageaux 說道。

A couple of questions. I guess the first one on the competitive front, I'd just love to get an update on given the closing of the Nokia-Infinera deal, are you seeing anything changing competitively either on the cloud side or the service providers side of the market? And then I'll follow up.

有幾個問題。我想第一個問題是關於競爭方面的，我很想了解諾基亞與英飛朗交易結束後的最新情況，您是否看到雲端運算或服務供應商方面的競爭發生了任何變化？然後我會跟進。

Tim, I would say that we've obviously competed with them separately and we've done extremely well with that. And I think we're -- we think we're incredibly well positioned with competitive advantage and a multi-year technology advantage on both modems, line systems, and microservices the main manager. So I don't think anything changes from that point of view.

提姆，我想說，我們顯然已經與他們單獨競爭過，而且我們做得非常好。我認為我們——我們認為我們在調製解調器、線路系統和微服務主要管理方面擁有極其有利的競爭優勢和多年的技術優勢。所以我認為從這個角度來看沒有任何改變。

Obviously they've got the challenge of rationalizing the portfolio, so I think that's an opportunity for us as they try and figure out their portfolio. So I think in the short term, that's a good opportunity for us.

顯然，他們面臨著合理化投資組合的挑戰，所以我認為這對我們來說是一個機會，因為他們試圖弄清楚他們的投資組合。所以我認為從短期來看，這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。

Great, thanks. And I think, Gary, you mentioned that in terms of upside drivers for the year, you felt them. The cloud was really driving it. But if you look at the dynamic in Q1, where you've got service provider of double digits and cloud down a little bit, as you look at fiscal '25 and look at that kind of low double-digit growth that you seem to be targeting. I mean, is it possible that most of that comes from service provider this year given the dynamics, or do we -- are we expecting to see a big rampant cloud later in the year? Looks like your orders might be out a little bit.

太好了，謝謝。加里，我認為，就今年的上行驅動因素而言，你已經感受到了。雲端運算才是真正推動這項進程的因素。但如果你看一下第一季的動態，你會發現服務供應商的成長達到了兩位數，而雲端運算的成長略有下降，而當你回顧 25 財年時，你會發現你所瞄準的那種低兩位數的成長。我的意思是，考慮到目前的動態，今年大部分雲端服務是否可能來自服務供應商，或者我們是否預計今年稍後會出現大規模的雲端服務氾濫？看起來您的訂單可能有點超出了。

I would expect to see a big ramp in cloud. I mean, I think, so what were the assumptions going in, kind of midpoint of that original guide with the service providers, sustained recovery, and I think we're very confident about that now. So tech, that's one of the big assumptions, I think, touched. And I think the upside to the range was always really around cloud.

我希望看到雲層中出現一個巨大的斜坡。我的意思是，我認為，那麼最初的指南的中點是服務提供者，持續復甦，我認為我們現在對此非常有信心。所以，我認為，技術是觸及的重大假設之一。我認為該系列的優勢始終與雲端有關。

And I think given the order flows and pipeline and activity that we're seeing, both on MOFN and on direct, I mean, the order flows in Q1, half-hour orders directly were from cloud. So we're getting good visibility into that as they plan these global buildouts. So I would expect that to that to come on strong in the next few quarters from a revenue point of view. It absolutely will, and I think it'll form the main elements around driving us to the high end of the of the range.

我認為，鑑於我們在 MOFN 和直接交易中看到的訂單流、管道和活動，我的意思是，第一季的訂單流、半小時訂單直接來自雲端。因此，當他們規劃這些全球擴張時，我們對此有了很好的了解。因此，從營收的角度來看，我預計未來幾季這數字將會強勁成長。絕對會的，而且我認為它將成為推動我們走向高端產品的主要因素。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Ryan Koontz, Needham.

瑞安·孔茨，尼德姆。

Great, thanks for the question. We could double click for a minute on the strength out of North America SP which really sounds like it got off to a strong kind of unseasonally robust start here, is that driven by just purely an improved spending environment or maybe are there specific programs or share gains that are driving that uptake?

太好了，謝謝你的提問。我們可以花一點時間來仔細觀察一下北美 SP 的實力，這聽起來確實像是有了一種反常的強勁開局，這僅僅是由改善的支出環境推動的，還是有特定的計劃或份額增長推動了這種增長？

Yeah, Ryan, I think we've had a number of design wins over the last couple of years that are now beginning to come to fruition with the major service providers in North America, so that is particular to us. I think, secondly, you've seen this dynamic, around getting inventory in balance.

是的，瑞安，我認為我們在過去幾年中取得了許多設計勝利，現在這些勝利開始與北美的主要服務提供者一起取得成果，所以這對我們來說很特別。其次，我認為您已經看到了這種圍繞平衡庫存的動態。

I think over the last few quarters, that's cleaned itself up. And so, you're now -- we're able to recognize revenues and new orders, and I think that's sort of all in balance. And I think the third dynamic is, they just haven't invested as much in infrastructure over the last few years, and I think part of that is they've been focused on 5G, and that, both in the US and globally, is now petering down, and so they're now returning to look at their overall infrastructure, automation of the networks, and how do they sort of scale that to meet the demands of things like MOFN and cloud expansion.

我認為在過去幾個季度裡，這個問題已經解決。所以，現在——我們能夠確認收入和新訂單，我認為一切都平衡了。我認為第三個動態是，過去幾年他們在基礎設施方面的投資沒有那麼多，我認為部分原因是他們一直專注於 5G，而無論在美國還是全球，5G 的投入都在逐漸減少，所以他們現在重新審視他們的整體基礎設施、網路自動化，以及如何擴大規模以滿足 MOFN 和雲端擴展等方面的需求。

So it's a multitude of dynamics that we're seeing, some of which are just industry based. Some of which are particular to Ciena of some of the design wins that we've got. And we pretty much now are the preferred partner in all of the major Tier 1 carriers in North America, and that's also playing into the strength.

因此，我們看到了多種動態，其中一些只是基於行業。其中一些是 Ciena 特有的，是我們獲得的一些設計勝利。現在我們幾乎是北美所有主要一級營運商的首選合作夥伴，這也發揮了我們的優勢。

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for that. And with respect to your broad exposure in cloud, which sounds like it's poised to see some strong sequential growth through this year, would you attribute that coming, primarily from kind of the top four classic players or, historically, more recently you've talked about, strength out of the next Tier 2s that are growing rapidly. How would you characterize your growth there and exposure?

這很有道理。謝謝。關於您在雲端運算領域的廣泛投資，聽起來它今年將會出現一些強勁的連續增長，您是否認為這主要來自前四大經典玩家，或者從歷史上看，也就是您最近談到的，來自快速增長的下一個二級市場的實力？您如何描述您在那裡的成長和曝光？

Yeah, I mean, it's tough to think about these as Tier 2s as well, the size of some of their business. I think it --it's sort of their -- now sort of pivot towards the network part of it, which they've not been focused on before. So, I think a telling statistic which folks might have missed is we've now got five cloud providers in our top 10 customers for Q1, and I think that kind of illustrates the sort of point that you're making around.

是的，我的意思是，考慮到他們的部分業務規模，很難將這些視為二級市場。我認為，這是他們的重點，現在他們正轉向網路部分，而之前他們並沒有關注過這個部分。因此，我認為大家可能忽略了一個很有說服力的統計數據，那就是我們第一季的前 10 位客戶中現在有 5 位是雲端供應商，我認為這說明了您所提出的觀點。

It's broadening out the amount of players that are investing and realizing that for them to optimize their position around AI and cloud that they've got to actually focus on the network from a delivery point of view and a monetization, and you're seeing we've had a number of wins in these newer -- they're certainly well-established large companies.

它正在擴大投資的參與者數量，並意識到為了優化他們在人工智慧和雲端運算領域的地位，他們必須從交付和貨幣化的角度真正關注網絡，而且你會看到我們在這些較新的公司中取得了許多勝利——他們肯定是成熟的大公司。

But these newer wins that are focused on the network and so you've got an expanding group of players, and we've also got deepening relationships with the major existing players as well. You think about the relationships we have, it's submarine, it's metro, it's long haul, it's pluggables, it's into the campus now with some of the pluggables. It's -- the services aspect of it, we're increasing our engagement around all of that, so it's both broader and deeper in the cloud market.

但這些較新的勝利集中在網路上，因此你擁有一個不斷擴大的玩家群體，而且我們與現有主要玩家的關係也日益加深。你想想我們之間的關係，它是海底的，它是城域的，它是長途的，它是可插拔的，它現在已經進入校園，有一些可插拔的。這是服務方面，我們正在加大對這方面的參與，因此在雲端市場上它會更加廣泛和深入。

Makes a lot of sense, Gary. Thanks for that.

非常有道理，加里。謝謝。

David Vogt, UBS.

瑞銀的戴維·沃格特。

Thank you. It's Andrew for David. I wanted to ask a higher level gross margin question. I think you've said you expected to move higher over time, and I think, I expect it to move maybe 100, 200 bps higher to get to your three-year plan. And for your margins.

謝謝。大衛的名字是安德魯 (Andrew)。我想問一個更高層次的毛利率問題。我想您已經說過，您預計利率會隨著時間的推移而上升，而且我認為，我預計利率可能會上升 100 到 200 個基點，以實現您的三年計劃。以及你的利潤。

And what I'm thinking about is I'm wondering, can I model and think about your gross margins moving higher over time as revenue scales and you get typical scale benefits, or should I think about it more as something that kind of goes sideways for a while and then inflects as your revenue shifts away from line systems, and so maybe the gross margin ramp in the three-year model is more back half loaded. I'm trying to think through that.

我在想的是，我是否可以建模並考慮您的毛利率會隨著收入規模的擴大和您獲得典型的規模效益而隨著時間的推移而上升，或者我是否應該更多地將其視為一種橫向波動一段時間然後隨著您的收入從線路系統轉移而發生變化的情況，因此也許三年模型中的毛利率上升幅度會回到半載。我正在努力思考這個問題。

Yeah, I'll answer that. Notwithstanding the fact that we had some unexpected one-time effects in this most recent quarter, our gross margin is most heavily influenced by mix, and typically, we have a somewhat razor blade. Structure of pricing and gross margins as we put out the original line systems and photonics, that's at a lower gross margin as we add capacity to the lines, it's at a higher gross margin and that's the way our business has worked for a long, long time.

是的，我會回答這個問題。儘管我們在最近這個季度遇到了一些意外的一次性影響，但我們的毛利率受產品組合的影響最大，而且通常情況下，我們的毛利率有點​​像剃刀刀片。當我們推出原始生產線系統和光子學時，定價和毛利率的結構是較低的，當我們增加生產線容量時，毛利率會更高，這就是我們業務長期以來的運作方式。

It happens to be the fact that our RLS line system, which is the NextGen line system, it's becoming an industry standard, is really doing extremely well in the marketplace. Essentially, all of the cloud providers are buying that. Most of the service providers are or will buy it. And so we have a very heavy percentage of RLS in our mix.

事實上，我們的 RLS 線路系統（即 NextGen 線路系統）正在成為行業標準，在市場上表現非常出色。本質上，所有雲端提供者都在購買它。大多數服務提供者都已經或將會購買它。因此，我們的產品組合中 RLS 所佔比例非常大。

We also are beginning to sell plugs, and these are 400ZR plugs. They're at a higher cost point than they will be going forward as we get production to scale and as we cost reduce those products. So we are experiencing a period of lower than trend gross margins, which will trend up over time. I do expect that it will trend up from what we're calling for Q2.

我們也開始銷售插頭，這些是 400ZR 插頭。隨著我們擴大生產規模並降低這些產品的成本，它們的成本將比未來更高。因此，我們正經歷一段毛利率低於趨勢水準的時期，但隨著時間的推移，毛利率將呈現上升趨勢。我確實預計它會比我們對第二季度的預測呈上升趨勢。

And I think as we move through time, we're going to get back to a more traditional balance between line systems and capacity, which will naturally move our margins up. So as you said, I think it's reasonable to expect something in the mid-40s over the next couple of years. It's not going to happen this year, probably not going to happen next year, but I think by the time you get up to '27, we should be in that range, and where it goes from there, who knows? We'd like to get back to the mid-40s and then we'll work on it to improve it.

我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將恢復生產線系統和產能之間更傳統的平衡，這自然會提高我們的利潤率。所以正如你所說，我認為在未來幾年內預期 40 年代中期的水平是合理的。今年不會發生這種情況，明年可能也不會發生，但我認為到 27 歲時，我們應該處於這個範圍內，至於以後會怎樣，誰知道呢？我們希望回到 40 年代中期，然後我們會努力改進它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you everyone with the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Gregg Lampf for any closing remarks.

感謝大家參與問答環節。我想將會議交還給 Gregg Lampf 來做結束語。

Thanks, Michael. Thank you everyone for joining us today. We do look forward to seeing everyone at OFC. We will be hosting, as Gary mentioned, a number of investor meetings through that conference, and we look forward to seeing you also at an event we're planning that Tuesday at 4:45 Pacific. Thanks, and we will speak to you all soon.

謝謝，麥可。感謝大家今天的參與。我們非常期待在 OFC 見到大家。正如加里所提到的，我們將透過該會議主辦多場投資者會議，我們也期待在我們計劃於太平洋時間週二 4:45 舉行的活動中見到您。謝謝，我們很快會與你們聯絡。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。