Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hey, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Ivy, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

    各位好,歡迎參加 Citizens Financial Group 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Ivy,今天將由我擔任接線員。(接線員指示)提醒各位,本活動將被錄音。

  • Now, I will turn the call over to Kristen Silverberg, Head of Investor Relations. Kristen, you may begin.

    現在我將把電話交給投資人關係主管 Kristen Silverberg。Kristen,請開始。

  • Kristin Silberberg - Head, Investor Relations

    Kristin Silberberg - Head, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Ivy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, Aunoy Banerjee, will provide an overview of our first quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, President; and Ted Swimmer, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color. We will be referencing our first quarter presentation located on our Investor Relations website.

    謝謝你,Ivy。各位早安,感謝各位加入我們。首先,今天早上我們的董事長暨執行長 Bruce Van Saun,以及財務長 Aunoy Banerjee,將概述第一季業績。總裁 Brendan Coughlin 與商業銀行主管 Ted Swimmer 也在場,將提供更多補充說明。我們將參考投資人關係網站上的第一季簡報。

  • After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review in the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results in the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix.

    簡報結束後,我們很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包含前瞻性陳述,相關陳述受風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。相關內容已在簡報中列示供各位查閱。我們也會引用非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,因此請務必一併檢視簡報中的 GAAP 結果,以及附錄中的調節表。

  • And with that, I will hand it over to Bruce.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Bruce。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Thanks, Kristin, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. We're pleased to start the year off strong, notwithstanding geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the macro environment. We delivered good financial performance in a seasonally soft quarter with year over year EPS growth of 47%, positive operating leverage of 7% and NIM expansion of 24 basis points.

    好的。謝謝你,Kristin,各位早安。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。儘管地緣政治緊張與宏觀環境不確定性仍在,我們很高興以強勁表現展開新的一年。在季節性偏弱的一季中,我們仍交出良好的財務表現:每股盈餘(EPS)年增 47%,正向營運槓桿 7%,以及淨利差(NIM)擴張 24 個基點。

  • Our balance sheet position continues to be robust with CET1 at 10.5% and our allowance for loan losses at 1.52%. Credit trends continue to be favorable across our portfolios, and we continue our loan mix shift towards deeper relationships with lower credit risk. Execution on our strategic initiatives continues to track well.

    我們的資產負債表狀況依然穩健,普通股權一級資本比率(CET1)為 10.5%,貸款損失準備金比率為 1.52%。各投資組合的信用趨勢持續良好,我們也持續調整貸款組合,轉向更深度的客戶關係與較低的信用風險。我們在策略性計畫上的執行進度也持續符合預期。

  • The Private Bank and Wealth business showed further growth in customers, balance sheet and profitability, now accounting for roughly 10% of our pretax income while delivering an ROE in excess of 25%. During the quarter, we opened three more PBOs, bringing the total to nine.

    私人銀行與財富管理業務在客戶數、資產負債表規模與獲利能力方面持續成長,目前約占我們稅前盈餘的 10%,同時股東權益報酬率(ROE)超過 25%。本季我們再新增開設 3 個 PBO,使總數達到 9 個。

  • Reimagine the bank is off to a solid start, and we reaffirm our $450 million P&L target by the end of 2028. We estimate about $100 million in 2026 exit run rate benefits at this point. Our positioning with private capital continues to be excellent.

    「重塑銀行(Reimagine the bank)」計畫開局穩健,我們重申到 2028 年底達成 4.5 億美元損益(P&L)目標。以目前進度估計,2026 年退出(exit)年化運行率效益約為 1 億美元。我們在私募資本領域的布局仍然非常出色。

  • We anticipate a strong year for private equity sponsor activity, which should provide a balance sheet and fee opportunities for us. We've reviewed all of our lending to private credit vehicles at a granular level and we feel good about our credit exposure.

    我們預期私募股權贊助商活動將迎來強勁的一年,這將為我們帶來資產負債表與手續費方面的機會。我們已對所有對私募信貸載體(private credit vehicles)的放款進行細緻的逐筆檢視,對我們的信用曝險狀況感到放心。

  • The New York City Metro initiative also continues to show further progress. We are growing across retail, small business and middle market. We are in the process of analyzing Citizens' existing branch footprint for net new investment and optimization with New York City likely to see growth in branches in coming years.

    紐約市都會區(New York City Metro)計畫也持續取得進展。我們在零售、小型企業與中型市場(middle market)領域均持續成長。我們正分析 Citizens 既有分行據點,以進行淨新增投資與最佳化;未來幾年紐約市的分行數量很可能會增加。

  • We should have more details to share with you on this midyear. We're also focused on an initiative we call One Citizens, which is systematically finding ways to work across the enterprise to deliver valuable solutions to our customers.

    我們應可在年中與各位分享更多細節。我們也聚焦於一項稱為「One Citizens」的計畫,系統性地尋找跨企業協作方式,為客戶提供更有價值的解決方案。

  • Now that we have stood up the private bank and continued the build-out of our corporate bank, we have the capacity to provide both personal and corporate services to successful business owners investors and entrepreneurs. We will report more on this as the year progresses, but we're already gaining real traction.

    在我們建立私人銀行並持續擴建企業銀行之後,我們已具備能力,能同時為成功的企業主、投資人與創業家提供個人與企業服務。我們將在今年進展過程中提供更多說明,但目前已經取得實質進展。

  • As we look ahead to the second quarter and the full year, we remain cautiously optimistic that we'll be able to navigate through external challenges and still deliver the strong results we projected coming into this year. So far, markets have behaved rationally despite the war with equity markets holding in and credit spreads only slightly wider. We intend to stay on our investment plan for the year unless the macro takes a meaningful turn for the worst.

    展望第二季與全年,我們仍保持審慎樂觀,相信能在外部挑戰下穩健前行,並仍可交出我們在今年初所預期的強勁成果。截至目前,市場在戰爭背景下仍表現理性:股市維持韌性,信用利差僅小幅走寬。除非宏觀環境出現明顯惡化,我們打算維持今年的投資計畫。

  • We're pleased with the regulatory changes we see coming from Washington DC, and we look forward to the upcoming CCAR stress test results, which we're hopeful will give a more accurate result for citizens than what we've seen in the past. So to sum up, a good start, well positioned with a great strategy and a great team and optimistic for a strong 2026.

    我們對華盛頓特區即將推出的監管變革感到振奮,也期待即將公布的 CCAR 壓力測試結果;我們希望這次能比過去更準確地反映 Citizens 的狀況。總結而言:開局良好、策略與團隊都很強、定位也很到位,我們對 2026 年的強勁表現保持樂觀。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Aunoy for the financial details. Aunoy?

    接下來,我把時間交給 Aunoy 說明財務細節。Aunoy?

  • Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Bruce. Good morning, everyone. As Bruce mentioned, Citizens has started the year well. Referencing slides 3 and 4, we delivered EPS of $1.13 for the first quarter with ROTCE of 12.2%. Results were paced by strong NII, reflecting both continued net interest margin expansion and solid loan growth.

    謝謝你,Bruce。各位早安。如 Bruce 所提,Citizens 今年開局表現良好。參考第 3 與第 4 張投影片,我們第一季每股盈餘(EPS)為 1.13 美元,普通股有形權益報酬率(ROTCE)為 12.2%。業績主要由強勁的淨利息收入(NII)帶動,反映淨利差持續擴張以及穩健的貸款成長。

  • We also deferred our best-ever first quarter fee result, led by strong performance in our commercial bank. With solid revenue performance and expense discipline drove more than 700 basis points of positive operating leverage year over year notwithstanding continued investment in the private bank and our other strategic priorities, along with ramping up our reimagine bank program. The Private Bank continued to grow its profitability, contributing $0.11 to EPS, up from $0.10 in the prior quarter as the business delivered another very strong quarter of deposit growth.

    我們也創下歷來最佳的第一季手續費表現,主要由商業銀行的強勁表現帶動。在營收表現穩健與費用紀律之下,儘管我們仍持續投資私人銀行與其他策略重點,並加速推進重塑銀行計畫,我們的年對年正向營運槓桿仍超過 700 個基點。私人銀行持續提升獲利能力,對 EPS 貢獻 0.11 美元,高於前一季的 0.10 美元;該業務本季存款成長再度非常強勁。

  • Now let me walk through the first quarter results in more detail, starting with net interest income on slide 5. Net interest income was up 1.6% linked quarter, driven by the benefit of an expanded net interest margin and higher interest-earning assets, including strong loan growth which more than offset the day count impact of about $22 million.

    接下來我將更詳細說明第一季業績,先從第 5 張投影片的淨利息收入開始。淨利息收入較前一季成長 1.6%,主要受惠於淨利差擴張以及生息資產增加,其中強勁的貸款成長足以抵銷約 2,200 萬美元的天數(day count)影響。

  • As you see from the NIM back at the bottom of the slide, our margin improved 7 basis points to 3.14%, driven primarily by the benefits of the reduced drag from terminated swaps and noncore runoff with a 5 basis point of combined impact. The fixed rate asset repricing benefit of 1 basis point.

    如投影片底部的 NIM 所示,我們的利差提升 7 個基點至 3.14%,主要來自已終止交換(terminated swaps)與非核心資產縮減(noncore runoff)所造成拖累降低的效益,合計影響 5 個基點。固定利率資產重訂價帶來 1 個基點的效益。

  • And lastly, the net impact of 1 basis point related to improved funding cost and mix, largely offset by lower acetyls. We continue to do a good job optimizing deposits in a competitive environment. Our interest-bearing deposit costs were down 16 basis points and total deposit costs were down 12 basis points.

    最後,與資金成本與結構改善相關的淨影響為 1 個基點,但大致被較低的資產收益率(asset yields)所抵銷。在競爭激烈的環境中,我們持續做好存款最佳化。我們的計息存款成本下降 16 個基點,總存款成本下降 12 個基點。

  • The cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta improved to 50% as we benefited from the repricing after the last rate cut. Even with the Fed now expected to hold steady in '26, we are still projecting a high 40s beta for the cycle.

    累計計息存款 beta 改善至 50%,受惠於上一次降息後的重訂價效應。即使目前預期聯準會在 2026 年將維持利率不變,我們仍預估本輪循環的 beta 將落在接近 40% 後段(high 40s)。

  • Moving to slide 6. Noninterest income is up 11% year over year but down 2% linked quarter. As I mentioned, this was our strongest first quarter fee result ever, notwithstanding heightened geopolitical tensions and an increase in market volatility.

    接著看第6頁投影片。非利息收入年增11%,但較前一季(連續季)下降2%。如我先前提到,儘管地緣政治緊張升高且市場波動加劇,這仍是我們有史以來最強勁的第一季手續費表現。

  • Capital markets performance demonstrated the strength and diversity of the franchise with fees up 34% year over year and down 4% compared with the strong fourth quarter. M&A delivered a good result in the quarter with our pipeline is strong and continues to build. Bond underwriting was up nicely from the prior quarter. Our equity underwriting performance was stable linked quarter and up significantly year over year. Loan syndications were lower given the market volatility.

    資本市場表現展現了本行平台的實力與多元性,手續費年增34%,但相較於強勁的第四季下降4%。本季併購(M&A)繳出不錯的成績,我們的案源管線強勁且持續累積。債券承銷較前一季明顯成長。股票承銷表現較前一季持平,且年增幅度顯著。由於市場波動,貸款聯貸業務較為疲弱。

  • We continue to maintain strong market share ranking fourth in the middle market sponsors book runner deals by volume. This is for both the first quarter and over the last 12 months. Our deal pipelines across M&A, debt and equity capital markets continue to build notwithstanding the unsettled environment. Our Global Markets business was up $10 million linked quarter with increased client hedging activity in interest rate products and energy-related commodities. Our wealth business continues to build with progress in the private bank and strength in our retail network.

    我們持續維持強勁的市占表現,在中型市場贊助商(sponsors)簿記管理人(book runner)交易量方面排名第4。此排名同時適用於第一季以及過去12個月。儘管環境仍不穩定,我們在併購、債務與股權資本市場的交易管線仍持續累積。我們的全球市場(Global Markets)業務較前一季增加1,000萬美元,主要受惠於客戶在利率產品與能源相關商品的避險活動增加。我們的財富管理業務持續擴張,私人銀行進展順利,零售通路亦展現強勁動能。

  • Wealth fees are up 2% linked quarter and 23% year over year. These results reflect higher advisory fees with continued positive momentum in fee-based AUM growth year over year. The fourth quarter results reflect positive net inflows partially offset by market impacts on AUM. Mortgage was down 19% linked quarter given a lower MSR valuation, partially offset by slightly higher production and servicing fees.

    財富管理手續費較前一季上升2%,年增23%。這些結果反映顧問費提高,且以手續費為基礎的資產管理規模(AUM)年增持續呈現正向動能。第四季的結果反映淨流入為正,但部分被市場對AUM的影響所抵銷。房貸業務較前一季下降19%,主因MSR估值較低,但部分被略高的放款量以及服務費收入所抵銷。

  • On slide 7, expenses were managed tightly, up 2.6% linked quarter, largely reflecting the usual seasonality in salaries and benefits as well as about $6 million of implementation costs to ramp up the reimagined the bank program.

    在第7頁投影片,費用控管嚴謹,較前一季上升2.6%,主要反映薪資與福利的季節性因素,以及約600萬美元用於推動「重塑銀行(reimagined the bank)」計畫的導入成本。

  • On slide 8, average and period-end loans were up 1% linked quarter. We saw solid loan growth across each of the businesses. Commercial loans, excluding the private bank, were up 1% on a spot basis. This was driven by net new money originations at higher commercial line utilization. This was partially offset by CRE paydowns.

    在第8頁投影片,平均與期末貸款較前一季上升1%。我們在各項業務均看到穩健的放款成長。商業貸款(不含私人銀行)以期末基準計較前一季上升1%。主要由新增資金放款帶動,且商業授信額度動用率提高。部分被商用不動產(CRE)還款所抵銷。

  • We continue to reduce commercial banking CRE balances, which were down about 4% this quarter and 16% year over year. The Private Bank delivered good loan growth again this quarter with period-end lows up about $600 million, driven by growth in multifamily and residential mortgage. Growth in retail loans ex noncore on a spot basis was about $300 million, led by real estate secured categories. This was offset by noncore auto portfolio run-up of roughly $500 million for the quarter.

    我們持續降低商業銀行的商用不動產(CRE)餘額,本季下降約4%,年減16%。私人銀行本季再次繳出良好的放款成長,期末貸款增加約6億美元,主要由多戶住宅與自用住宅房貸成長帶動。零售貸款(不含非核心)以期末基準計約增加3億美元,主要由不動產擔保類別帶動。但本季非核心汽車貸款組合約增加5億美元,抵銷了部分成長。

  • Next, on slides 9 and 10, we continue to do a good job on deposits with average deposits up 1% or $1.5 billion quarter on quarter, primarily driven by the growth in the Private Bank, which reached $16.6 billion at the end of the quarter. This was partially offset by seasonal impacts in commercial. Year over year, average balances are up $8.6 billion or 5%, reflecting combined growth in the Private Bank and commercial of $11.2 billion, partially offset by roughly $2 billion of reduction in higher-cost treasury brokered deposits.

    接著看第9與第10頁投影片,我們在存款方面持續表現良好,平均存款較前一季增加1%或15億美元,主要由私人銀行成長帶動,期末達166億美元。部分被商業端的季節性因素所抵銷。年比年,平均餘額增加86億美元或5%,反映私人銀行與商業合計成長112億美元,但部分被約20億美元較高成本的財資經紀存款(treasury brokered deposits)下降所抵銷。

  • On a spot basis, noninterest-bearing balances are up $1.3 billion or 3% quarter on quarter and up $4.1 billion or 11% year over year, improving the overall mix to 23% of the book. Our total noninterest-bearing and low-cost deposit mix was steady at 43%, and our consumer deposits are 64% of our total deposits. This compares to a peer average of about 56%.

    以期末基準計,無息存款餘額較前一季增加13億美元或3%,年增41億美元或11%,使整體結構改善至占存款組合的23%。我們的無息與低成本存款合計占比維持在43%,而消費者存款占總存款的64%。相較之下,同業平均約為56%。

  • Moving to slide 11. Credit continues to trend favorably with net charge-offs coming in at 39 basis points, down from 43 basis points in the prior quarter. Nonaccrual loans are down modestly linked quarter, reflecting a decrease in commercial, largely driven by C&I, which was partially offset by an increase in market.

    接著看第11頁投影片。信用狀況持續朝有利方向發展,淨沖銷(net charge-offs)為39個基點,較前一季的43個基點下降。不計息貸款(nonaccrual loans)較前一季小幅下降,反映商業端減少,主要由C&I帶動,但部分被市場相關項目增加所抵銷。

  • Turning to slide 12. The allowance was essentially stable this quarter with ACL coverage ratios of 1.52%. This reflects the continued improvement in our portfolio mix with noncore runoff, the reduction in CRE and strong originations of lower loss content C&I, residential real estate secured and private loans. The economic forecast supporting the allowance contemplates a mild recession with a slight deterioration compared with the last quarter, reflecting the potential impact of higher energy prices. As we look broadly across the portfolio, the credit outlook remains positive though we continue to carefully monitor the macroeconomic environment.

    接著看第12頁投影片。本季備抵損失(allowance)基本持平,ACL覆蓋率為1.52%。這反映我們投資組合結構持續改善,包括非核心資產縮減、CRE降低,以及低損失內容的C&I、住宅不動產擔保與私人貸款強勁承作。用以支持備抵的經濟預測假設為溫和衰退,較上季略為惡化,反映能源價格上升的潛在影響。整體而言,我們對投資組合的信用展望仍然正向,但仍會審慎監控總體經濟環境。

  • Moving to slide 13. We maintained excellent balance sheet strength, ending the quarter with CET1 at 10.5%. We returned about $500 million to shareholders in the first quarter with $198 million in common dividends and $300 million of share repurchases.

    接著看第13頁投影片。我們維持優異的資產負債表強度,季末CET1為10.5%。第一季我們回饋股東約5億美元,包括1.98億美元普通股股利與3億美元庫藏股回購。

  • Moving to slide 14. The Private Bank continues to make excellent progress. The Private Bank delivered strong deposit growth again, ending the quarter at $16.6 billion. Importantly, the overall deposit mix and cost continues to be very attractive. We also delivered solid loan growth in the quarter, adding about $600 million of loan at a healthy spread of 4% over deposit costs to end the quarter at $7.7 billion of loans.

    接著看第14頁投影片。私人銀行持續取得卓越進展。私人銀行再次實現強勁的存款成長,季末達166億美元。重要的是,整體存款結構與成本仍非常具吸引力。本季我們也達成穩健的放款成長,新增約6億美元貸款,且利差健康,較存款成本高出4%,使季末貸款餘額達77億美元。

  • We ended the quarter with $10.1 billion of total client assets with modest net inflows partially offset by market impacts. We have more runway here as we plan to continue adding top quality teams in key geographies. We opened offices in Malmo Park and Laurel Village in the first quarter, and we expect to open at least two more offices this year in Weston Beach, Florida and Greenwich, Connecticut.

    季末總客戶資產為101億美元,淨流入小幅為正,但部分被市場影響所抵銷。我們仍有很大的成長空間,並計畫持續在關鍵地區延攬頂尖團隊。第一季我們在Malmo Park與Laurel Village開設辦公室,並預期今年至少再開設兩個辦公室,分別位於佛羅里達州Weston Beach與康乃狄克州Greenwich。

  • Moving to slide 15. Our reimagined the bank program is off to a great start. The objective is to position Citizens for long-term success by embracing a host of new innovative technologies across the bank and simplifying our business model. which will reshape our customer experience and drive a meaningful improvement in productivity and efficiency. The program is well underway with work commencing on several key work streams.

    接著看第15頁投影片。我們的「重塑銀行(reimagined the bank)」計畫開局非常順利。目標是透過在全行導入多項創新科技並簡化商業模式,讓Citizens具備長期成功的定位;此舉將重塑客戶體驗,並推動生產力與效率的顯著提升。該計畫已全面展開,數個關鍵工作主軸已開始推進。

  • For example, on the technology front, we are leveraging AI to assist in writing code and expect to have material productivity improvements in software development, cutting down cycle times. We are also using AI to improve our interactions with customers, which we expect will materially cut call volumes and improve the overall customer experience. We expect to exist 2026 with an annualized run rate of about $100 million of pretax benefit.

    例如在科技面,我們正運用AI協助撰寫程式碼,並預期軟體開發將出現實質的生產力提升,縮短開發週期時間。我們也運用AI改善與客戶的互動,預期將大幅降低來電量並提升整體客戶體驗。我們預期在2026年達到約1億美元的稅前效益年化運行率(annualized run rate)。

  • Now moving to slide 16. We provide our outlook for the second quarter. We expect net interest income to be up in the range of 3% to 4%, driven by continued expansion in net interest margin and earning asset growth. Noninterest income is expected to be up 3% to 5%, led by capital markets with some risk if market volatility moves higher.

    現在轉到第16頁投影片。我們提供對第二季的展望。我們預期淨利息收入將成長約3%至4%,主要受惠於淨利差持續擴大以及生息資產成長。非利息收入預期成長3%至5%,由資本市場業務帶動,但若市場波動加劇,仍存在一定風險。

  • Other fee categories such as FX and derivatives, wealth and card should also provide lift for the quarter. We are projecting expenses to be stable to up 1%, incorporating a step-up in implementation costs associated with reimagine the Bank and continued investment in other key business initiatives. We expect expense saves from reimagine the bank to benefit second half expenses.

    其他手續費類別如外匯與衍生性商品、財富管理與信用卡,也應可在本季帶來助益。我們預估費用將持平至增加1%,其中納入與「重塑銀行」相關的導入成本上升,以及對其他關鍵業務計畫的持續投資。我們預期「重塑銀行」帶來的費用節省將在下半年反映於費用表現。

  • The charge-off level is expected to be stable to down slightly. And we should end the second quarter with CET1 in the range of 10.5% to 10.6%, including share repurchases of about $225 million. In addition, our full year outlook remains broadly in line with the guide we provided in January, which contemplated a pickup in business activity over the course of the year.

    預期核銷水準將持平或小幅下降。我們預期第二季末的CET1將落在10.5%至10.6%區間,並包含約2.25億美元的庫藏股回購。此外,我們的全年展望仍大致符合1月提供的指引,該指引假設全年業務活動將逐步回升。

  • Looking out further, we see a clear path to achieving our 16% to 18% ROTCE target by the end of '27, expanding our net interest margin is an important driver, and we continue to project NIM to be in the range of 322% to 328% in 4Q '26. And in the range of 330% to 350% in 4Q '27.

    再往後看,我們清楚看到在2027年底前達成16%至18% ROTCE目標的路徑;擴大淨利差是重要驅動因素,我們仍預估2026年第四季NIM將落在322%至328%區間。而2027年第四季則在330%至350%區間。

  • Slide 17 provides incremental details on our net interest margin progression to the end of '27. This combined with the impact of successful execution of our strategic initiatives and normalizing credit should drive ROI to our target range.

    第17頁投影片提供我們淨利差推進至2027年底的更多細節。這再加上我們成功執行策略性計畫的影響,以及信用狀況正常化,應可推動投資報酬率(ROI)達到我們的目標區間。

  • To wrap up, we're off to a good start to '26, with results highlighted by strong growth, net interest income and good fee results in a seasonally soft quarter. Our balance sheet is strong and we continue to drive forward our strategic initiatives with strong momentum in growing the Private Bank and in our reimagine the bank program.

    總結來說,我們在2026年有個良好開局;在一個季節性偏淡的季度中,成果亮點包括強勁成長、淨利息收入,以及良好的手續費表現。我們的資產負債表穩健,並持續以強勁動能推進策略性計畫,包括私人銀行的成長,以及「重塑銀行」計畫。

  • With that, I will hand it back over to Bruce.

    接下來我把時間交回給Bruce。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Thank you, Aunoy. Operator, let's open it up for Q&A.

    好的。謝謝你,Aunoy。接線員,我們開始進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    Scott Siefers,Piper Sandler。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Let's see. Maybe I was hoping you could maybe start by speaking to kind of the capital markets dynamics. Obviously, I see the numbers in the first quarter, but curious how you thought the first quarter actually performed given that you had sort of the interplay between one, the environment played out a lot differently than we all figured it might.

    各位早安。謝謝你們回答問題。我想一下。也許我希望你們先談談資本市場的動態。顯然我看到第一季的數字,但我好奇在第一季實際表現方面,你們怎麼看,因為你們面臨某種交互影響:第一,整體環境的發展與我們原先預期的差異很大。

  • But two, I know you all had some deals that were pushed from the fourth quarter into the first quarter. So maybe just sort of results versus expectations then if you could speak to the forward look, things like pipelines, confidence and pull-through, et cetera.

    第二,我知道你們有一些交易從第四季延後到第一季。所以如果可以的話,請談談結果相對於預期的情況;以及對未來的看法,例如案源管線(pipeline)、信心與成交轉化率(pull-through)等等。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Scott, let me, it's Bruce. I'll take it first and then hand over to Ted to provide more color. But I would say all things considered, we're pleased with the performance of the capital markets franchise in an environment that had increased volatility and lots of uncertainty, particularly in March once the war kicked in.

    好的。Scott,我先回答,我是Bruce。我先講,之後再交給Ted補充更多細節。但我會說,綜合各項因素,我們對資本市場業務在波動加劇、且不確定性很高的環境下仍能有這樣的表現感到滿意,特別是3月戰事爆發後。

  • But we have good diversification across our different services in capital markets. So we have M&A, we have bond underwriting, equity underwriting and syndicated loans. I think that diversity helped us print a good quarter. There was some leakage, I would say, from March that's geared up to go in April, which now that we have more optimistic tone to the market. We're actually starting to see that come through.

    不過我們在資本市場不同服務線上具備良好的多元化。我們有併購(M&A)、債券承銷、股票承銷以及聯貸。我認為這種多元性幫助我們交出一個不錯的季度。我會說3月有一些業務「外溢」到4月才會落地;而現在市場情緒更為樂觀,我們其實開始看到這些業務逐步反映出來。

  • So we may be in a situation where our pipelines are very well. We're very optimistic given kind of the strength of the franchise, the likelihood that people want to transact. But if there's this external volatility ebbs and flows, you could see people pull to the sidelines, wait for the opportune time, for example, to go to market. And hopefully that cleans up. We're certainly not taking our numbers down for the year. In fact, we feel quite good about that given the level of activity that we see and the pipeline strength that we have.

    因此我們可能處於一種情況:我們的案源管線非常強。基於我們特許經營的實力,以及客戶確實有交易意願,我們相當樂觀。但如果外部波動起伏不定,你可能會看到人們先退到場邊,等待更合適的時點,例如選擇何時進入市場。希望這些情況能逐步改善。我們當然沒有下修今年的數字。事實上,考量我們看到的活動水準與管線強度,我們對此相當有信心。

  • So Ted, over to you.

    Ted,交給你。

  • Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

    Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

  • Building on what Bruce just said, we've seen, we took a couple of transactions in March that we would have launched into the market and pushed them into April, just given the volatility in the overall markets. But during that whole period of time, we continue to sign up new transactions. And I think what's really exciting about the transactions that we're signing up based on the investments we made in Corporate Finance and industry specialization, we now are doing more complex transactions and getting signed up on more complex transactions than we ever had before and feel very good about what that pipe, what those transactions are and how the pipeline is building.

    延續Bruce剛才的說法,我們在3月有幾筆交易原本會推向市場,但因整體市場波動而延後到4月。但在那段期間,我們仍持續簽下新的交易。我認為真正令人振奮的是,基於我們在企業融資(Corporate Finance)與產業專精方面的投資,我們現在能承作比以往更複雜的交易,也更常在更複雜的交易中取得委任;我們對這些交易內容以及管線的累積情況都感到非常有信心。

  • And to more to what Bruce just said, the deals that got postponed in March, especially this week, we've seen them back into the market. We are launching several transactions and part of several transactions that were postponed in March that are getting very good recession now in April.

    另外也呼應Bruce剛才提到的,3月延後的案子,特別是本週,我們看到它們重新回到市場。我們正在啟動數筆交易,也參與數筆在3月延後的交易,而這些交易在4月獲得非常好的市場反應。

  • So we continue to feel very optimistic about the pipeline, especially on the M&A side. And during this whole period of turmoil, we really actually saw a pickup in new mandates, especially on the M&A side of the business.

    因此我們對案源管線仍非常樂觀,尤其是在併購(M&A)方面。而在這段動盪期間,我們其實看到新的委任案有所增加,特別是在併購業務端。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And I'd just close by saying it was a record first quarter for us in capital markets fees, that shouldn't go unnoted.

    是的。我最後補充一句:我們第一季的資本市場手續費創下紀錄,這點不應被忽略。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Yeah. Totally agree. Okay. Perfect. Thank you. That's very helpful. And then I was hoping you all would maybe speak to the private credit portfolio as well. I know there's a lot of good detail in the appendix. Just curious sort of not only for an update on credit quality dynamics, but also given your build-out of the team over many years, I know it's been a focus area and just sort of your appetite to continue to grow the portfolio given sort of certain current sort of industry circumstances?

    是的。完全同意。好的。太好了。謝謝。這非常有幫助。接著我也希望你們談談私人信貸(private credit)投資組合。我知道附錄裡有很多很好的細節。我想了解的不只是信用品質動態的最新情況,也包括你們多年來擴建團隊、把這塊作為重點領域之後,在目前產業環境下,你們是否仍有意願持續擴大該投資組合?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I'll start again and flip to Ted. But I would say we've been very disciplined in terms of the kind of counterparties that we select usually they're often a private equity sponsor that's migrated to a broader kind of business model that picks up private credit, and they're moving to be more of an alternative asset manager.

    我先開始,然後再交給Ted。但我會說,我們在選擇交易對手方面一直非常自律;通常他們多半是私募股權贊助方,並已逐步轉向更廣泛的商業模式,將私人信貸納入其中,且正朝向更偏替代資產管理人的方向發展。

  • And so we've helped them grow and get into this business and provide leverage to many of those names. So client selection is always key and then making sure we have the right structures in place so that we're structurally protected from any issues that could arise in the portfolios.

    因此,我們協助他們成長並進入這項業務,並為其中許多機構名稱提供槓桿。所以客戶篩選始終是關鍵,接著要確保我們具備正確的架構安排,使我們在結構上能夠受到保護,避免投資組合中可能出現的任何問題。

  • And so we've gone through and looked at kind of our exposure and kind of the broad portfolio, looking at all the underlying factors who has liquidity gates for retail investors who's got software exposure at the end of the day, feel very, very confident that we're structurally well protected from a credit loss standpoint.

    因此,我們已經逐一檢視我們的曝險以及整體投資組合,查看所有底層因素:哪些有針對零售投資人的流動性閘門、哪些在最終層面有軟體曝險;我們對於從信用損失角度而言,我們在結構上受到良好保護這件事,感到非常、非常有信心。

  • And I think even though this is in the headlines and there's concerns about private credit, the asset class, if you want to call it that, is here to stay, and they provide a certain amount of leverage and deal structures that exceeds what banks have historically been willing to play, and there's certainly a lot of institutional demand folks or private credit managers are continuing to raise new money.

    我認為,即使這件事登上新聞頭條、外界對私募信貸有所擔憂,這個資產類別(如果你要這麼稱呼它)仍將長期存在;它們提供一定程度的槓桿與交易結構,超過銀行過去歷來願意承作的範圍,而且機構端需求確實很強,私募信貸管理人也持續在募集新資金。

  • So I think we'll just grow selectively with the market as we have in the past, but we don't see this turning around and being something that starts to shrink. It's just going to grow. And I think every player in the market will be more selective, and we'll continue to be selective, but we would expect this to be an area that we stay committed to.

    所以我認為,我們會像過去一樣,隨著市場有選擇性地成長,但我們不認為這會反轉成為開始萎縮的事情。它只會持續成長。我認為市場上的每一位參與者都會更具選擇性,而我們也會持續保持選擇性,但我們預期這會是我們持續投入、保持承諾的領域。

  • Ted?

    Ted?

  • Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

    Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

  • Just adding on to what Bruce said in a number of conversations we've had with private credit since this, the noise has really started. We really haven't seen a decrease in appetite. In fact, in a lot of the conversations and the deals we're getting ready to launch. We're getting inbound calls from the private credit side of the business. So technology and software is certainly something that they're not all that interested in investing in right now. But for the most part, the majority of their portfolio, they're still very hungry and there's a lot of demand out there.

    補充 Bruce 所說的:自從這些雜音真正開始出現以來,我們與私募信貸進行了多次對話。我們其實沒有看到胃納下降。事實上,在許多對話以及我們準備啟動的交易中,我們收到來自私募信貸業務端的主動來電。所以科技與軟體確實是他們目前不太有興趣投資的領域。但就整體而言,他們投資組合中的大多數部分仍然非常積極,市場上的需求也很強。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Perfect. All right. Thank you all very much.

    很好。好。非常感謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manan Gosaila, Morgan Stanley.

    Manan Gosaila,摩根士丹利。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Maybe to start on NII. I know you broadly reiterated the guide for the year, including the NII guide and the exit NIM. But you have noted that Citizens SKU is slightly asset sensitive. In a scenario where rates stay higher for longer, we don't get any rate cuts until the end of the year. Where do you think the NII and NIM is trending? And what's the most likely outcome here?

    嗨,早安。也許先從 NII 談起。我知道你們大致上重申了今年的指引,包括 NII 指引以及期末 NIM。但你們也提到 Citizens 的 SKU 略偏資產敏感。在利率維持更高更久、直到年底才降息的情境下,你們認為 NII 與 NIM 的趨勢會如何?最可能的結果是什麼?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So we feel really good about our ability to deliver the kind of NII and the NIM that we gave in the beginning of the year guide. So, but as you say, the environment is going to have an impact to some degree and a bit of a pause by the Fed. So a little higher rate scenario that we came into the year given asset sensitivity is modestly positive for us. And then a little slightly steeper yield curve, we had assumed 425 to 450 is the 10-year, and we're kind of in that zone.

    是的。我們對於能夠達成我們在年初指引中所給出的 NII 與 NIM 水準感到非常有把握。不過如你所說,環境在某種程度上會帶來影響,以及聯準會暫停動作。因此,相較於我們年初假設的情境,利率略高一些,考量到資產敏感度,對我們是溫和正面的。另外,殖利率曲線稍微更陡,我們原先假設 10 年期在 4.25% 到 4.50%,目前大致就在這個區間。

  • But, to the extent there's, that moves up and there's a little more steepening, that's also potentially positive to the outlook. But I wouldn't say it's a game changer. These are kind of marginal benefits that give us even more conviction that we can deliver to the numbers or slightly ahead of the numbers.

    但如果利率再往上、曲線再多一些陡峭化,這也可能對展望有正面幫助。不過我不會說這會改變遊戲規則。這些屬於邊際效益,讓我們更有信心能達成這些數字,或略微超出這些數字。

  • With that, Aunoy, I'll turn it over to you if you want to add any color?

    在這點上,Aunoy,如果你想補充一些說明,我把問題交給你?

  • Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I think Manan, to Bruce's point, we are very confident on getting to the NIM and the NII outlook that we gave. I think on the NIM side of it, as you saw from our walk in 1Q, a lot of the benefit is coming from the terminated swaps and the noncore runoffs, which is not rate dependent, and that's another 12 basis points for the rest of the year.

    好的。Manan,我認同 Bruce 的觀點,我們對於達成我們所給出的 NIM 與 NII 展望非常有信心。在 NIM 方面,如你從我們第一季的拆解所看到的,很多效益來自已終止的交換合約以及非核心資產的自然到期/縮減,這些並不依賴利率,且今年剩餘期間還有另外 12 個基點的貢獻。

  • The front bank, bank book book dynamic as Bruce strategies would be helpful in this environment. So we remain confident on getting there. And as you saw, we have some good loan growth, we have good traction and pipeline on that. So we feel confident of getting there.

    前台銀行(front bank)與銀行簿(bank book)的動態,如 Bruce 所提到的策略,在這樣的環境下會有幫助。因此我們仍然有信心達成目標。而且如你所見,我們的放款成長不錯,在這方面也有良好的動能與案源管線。所以我們對達成目標很有信心。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Perfect. And then maybe to pivot over to capital, given the new proposals that we got a few weeks ago, if you could give us your initial thoughts on what the magnitude of the benefit is for risk-weighted assets given your specific business mix? And maybe if you have any thoughts on whether Citizens would adopt the ERPA.

    很好。接著也許轉到資本面:鑑於幾週前公布的新提案,能否請你們分享初步看法,依你們特定的業務組合,對風險加權資產(RWA)帶來的效益幅度大概是多少?另外,你們是否會採用 ERPA,也想聽聽你們的想法。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Sure. So it's still early days, and we're going through a comment period. But based on what we see now, this could deliver kind of a 10%-ish reduction in risk-weighted assets, which would translate to in excess of 100 basis points, call it, 110 basis points or so of CET1 improvement.

    好的。當然。目前仍在早期階段,且正處於徵詢意見期。但就我們目前看到的內容,這可能帶來約 10% 左右的風險加權資產下降,換算成 CET1 的改善會超過 100 個基點,大約可說是 110 個基點左右。

  • The AOCI phase-in, if it happened right today, it would basically mitigate that. But as it phases in over time, some of that drag will dissipate. And so we would expect to be kind of at least 30 basis points to the good net-net, even with AOCI, maybe as much as 50. So we'll just have to see how the rate curve plays out from here.

    AOCI 的分階段納入,如果今天就立即發生,基本上會抵銷上述改善。但隨著時間逐步納入,其中部分拖累會消退。因此我們預期,即使考量 AOCI,整體淨額仍至少有約 30 個基點的正面效果,甚至可能達到 50 個基點。所以我們還得觀察接下來利率曲線如何演變。

  • But anyway, it's a good problem to have, and it's probably early days to say kind of what we'll plan to do with that. There'll be a lot of considerations, what is stakeholders' expectations, the market, the rating agencies, the regulators, et cetera. But anyway, it's a good issue for us to think about.

    不過無論如何,這是個好問題,也可能還太早去說我們會如何規劃運用。需要考量的因素很多,包括利害關係人的期待、市場、信評機構、監管機關等等。但總之,這對我們而言是個值得思考的好議題。

  • The other thing is on this ERBA. There's a modest improvement even over the revised standard approach but there's a lot of work that goes into that. So you'd have to step back and decide do you want to do it? One of the things that sticks out as a difference between the two approaches is kind of the lesser risk weights under ERBA for investment-grade credit.

    另外一點是關於這個 ERBA。相較於修訂後的標準法,它有小幅改善,但需要投入大量工作。因此你必須退一步思考:你是否要做?兩種方法之間一個顯著差異在於:在 ERBA 下,投資等級信用的風險權數較低。

  • And we'll have to see if that gets imported into the revised standard approach, so there's no difference or whether there is a difference that might pull you towards wanting to move over and do ERBA approach.

    而我們也要看這是否會被納入修訂後的標準法,使兩者沒有差異;或是仍存在差異,進而讓你更傾向於轉而採用 ERBA 方法。

  • So Aunoy, anything to add?

    所以 Aunoy,有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I think as Bruce said, Manan, we are going through all the advocacy on some of these things that Bruce mentioned. We are also looking at all the work that needs to be done on ERBA versus standardized for what's there and now with a lot of new technology, things could be really different in some ways. So there's a lot to do here still. But we are, as Bruce said, we are, it's in the right direction, and we feel good about it.

    有的。Manan,如 Bruce 所說,我們正在就他提到的部分進行各項倡議與溝通。我們也在評估 ERBA 相較於標準法所需完成的工作;而且現在有許多新技術,在某些方面可能會帶來很不一樣的做法。所以這裡仍有很多工作要做。但如 Bruce 所說,方向是正確的,我們對此感到樂觀。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • I appreciate all the color. Thanks, Bruce. Thanks, Aunoy.

    感謝你提供這麼多細節。謝謝你,Bruce。謝謝你,Aunoy。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

    Ryan Nash,高盛。

  • Ryan Nash - Analyst

    Ryan Nash - Analyst

  • Good morning, Bruce. Good morning, Aunoy. So Bruce, you've had 4 straight quarters of sequential loan growth. If I look at the drivers of growth, clearly, private capital call, private credit have all been contributors. So maybe you could just talk about your confidence in loan growth here and what you see as the key drivers. And then second, I know you referenced higher utilization. What's driving that? I know you're expecting to see more of this. Thank you.

    早安,Bruce。早安,Aunoy。所以,Bruce,你已經連續4個季度貸款呈現逐季成長。如果我看成長的驅動因素,顯然,私募資本的資金催繳額度(capital call)、私募信貸都一直是貢獻來源。所以也許你可以談談你對目前貸款成長的信心,以及你認為的關鍵驅動因素是什麼。第二,你也提到使用率提高。是什麼在推動這件事?我知道你預期會看到更多這種情況。謝謝。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I'd say that the really impressive thing, Ryan, is that we're getting the growth in each of the three main business areas. So Private Bank being kind of that start-up phase is growing their book nicely and consistently. And I think that leans a little bit more on the consumer side and multifamily side, that should continue. We had actually low line utilization with their client base, which should bounce back. And so we see private bank contributing.

    是的,我會說,Ryan,真正令人印象深刻的是,我們在三大主要業務領域都取得成長。因此,私人銀行仍處於某種「起步」階段,但其資產組合(book)正在良好且持續地成長。我認為這更偏向消費端與多戶住宅端,這應該會延續。我們先前在其客戶基礎上的授信額度使用率其實偏低,這應該會回升。因此我們看到私人銀行正在貢獻成長。

  • I think in commercial as well, we have the growth in NBFI, but also starting to see a little deal activity pick up across the corporate book, and we have our expansion markets, don't forget. So we brought banking teams into Florida and California and beefed up our New York Metro team. So that's contributing a bit. And then in the consumer bank, we've been kind of a rock star and HELOCs and also consistent growth in mortgage. So it's nice to see it's pretty broad-based.

    我想在商業銀行方面也是如此,我們在NBFI(非銀行金融機構)有成長,同時也開始看到企業客群(corporate book)整體的交易活動略有回升,而且別忘了我們的擴張市場。我們把銀行團隊帶進佛羅里達與加州,並強化了紐約都會區團隊。所以這也帶來一些貢獻。另外在消費金融銀行方面,我們在HELOC(房屋淨值信用額度)表現非常突出,房貸也持續成長。所以很高興看到成長相當廣泛。

  • And then some of the drags of the things that we've had in the past, such as kind of the rundown of noncore, some of the commercial BSO thin relationship exits and things like that, the CRE kind of getting back to par where we want to be on commercial CRE after the investors acquisition, all that is starting to abate a little bit, which allows the inherent growth to shine through.

    此外,過去一些拖累因素,例如非核心資產的逐步縮減、部分商業BSO(銀行策略性外包/業務來源)薄弱關係的退出等,以及在收購Investors之後,商用CRE(商用不動產)回到我們希望的商用CRE目標水位,這些情況都開始稍微緩解,讓內生性成長得以更清楚地展現。

  • I think I'll ask maybe go to Brendan first for some color on Consumer and Private Bank. And then Ted, I'll ask you for some color on commercial.

    我想我先請Brendan就消費金融與私人銀行補充一些細節。然後Ted,我再請你就商業銀行補充一些說明。

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • Yeah. Thanks, Bruce. Thanks, Ryan. Adding on Bruce, just give you a little more color and data on the retail side of the business. We're up about 4% year on year on core loans, heavily driven by HELOC and mortgage Bruce mentioned, you just got the league tables in from 2025.

    好的。謝謝,Bruce。謝謝,Ryan。延續Bruce的說法,我再就零售端業務提供更多細節與數據。我們核心貸款年增約4%,主要由Bruce提到的HELOC與房貸所帶動;你也剛收到2025年的排行榜資料。

  • We're the number one originator in the United States at home equity lending with an incredibly strong risk profile, low LTVs, strong FICO scores, all depository relationship customers. So we're very proud about that, and we expect that to continue. Mortgage originations in this rate environment has obviously been challenged, but prepay speeds slowed too.

    我們是美國房屋淨值貸款(home equity lending)承作量第一名,且風險輪廓非常強健:LTV(貸款成數)低、FICO分數高,且全部都是存款往來關係客戶。所以我們對此非常自豪,也預期會持續。在目前利率環境下,房貸承作量顯然面臨挑戰,但提前還款速度(prepay speeds)也放緩了。

  • So we're seeing net positive growth in mortgage and the balance sheet rotating into higher relationship-based lending fueled by the private bank and the retail bank. With our launch of a new credit card products, we're seeing a 50%-plus growth in new credit card originations.

    因此我們看到房貸呈現淨正成長,而資產負債表也在私人銀行與零售銀行的帶動下,輪轉至更高、以關係為基礎的放款。隨著我們推出新的信用卡產品,我們看到新信用卡核發/承作量成長超過50%。

  • It takes a little bit of time for that to translate into the balance sheet as pain activity gets through, but we should see some modest script in credit card as we hit the back half of the year, too. So broadly in retail, we expect the the growth rate that we're seeing to project forward with a lot of confidence and the mixing of the balance is to get strong with higher return and deeper relationships.

    這需要一些時間才會隨著刷卡/交易活動反映到資產負債表上,但我們也應該會在下半年看到信用卡業務出現一些溫和的增量。因此整體而言,在零售端,我們對目前看到的成長率能夠延續相當有信心,而資產組合的結構也會朝向更高報酬、更深度關係而強化。

  • The Private banking side, we've generally been in the range of about $1 billion in net growth each quarter. We were a little bit lighter than that this quarter with some lower utilization rates on the private equity side. But we that to be temporal.

    在私人銀行方面,我們通常每季淨成長約10億美元左右。本季略低於該水準,原因是私募股權端的使用率較低。但我們認為這是暫時性的。

  • And the underlying originations activity is quite strong. We're very confident we'll end the year in the range that we gave of $11 billion to $13 billion, which projects back to about that $1 billion in that growth per quarter returning in the Private Bank. So both retail and private banking, I would just broadly describe as continued steady momentum with what you've seen over the last few quarters. Ted?

    而且基礎的承作動能相當強。我們非常有信心全年會落在我們給出的110億至130億美元區間,換算回來大致就是私人銀行每季約10億美元的成長將會回到常態。所以無論是零售或私人銀行,我會概括形容為:延續過去幾季所見的穩健動能。Ted?

  • Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

    Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

  • Yeah. Thanks, Brendan and Bruce. On the middle market side, we have seen a pickup in utilization over the last three months. I think customers are getting, our customers are getting more comfortable in the economy and overall spending money on CapEx, which has led to a slight increase there on the mid-corporate, adding on that, what we built out in Florida, New York and California, we're starting to see some real success there with some increased loan demand and some increased customer count, which has resulted in higher growth there.

    好的。謝謝,Brendan和Bruce。在中型市場(middle market)方面,過去三個月我們確實看到使用率回升。我認為客戶、我們的客戶對經濟更有信心,整體在資本支出(CapEx)上的花費增加,因而帶來中型企業端的些微提升;此外,我們在佛羅里達、紐約與加州的布局開始看到實質成果,貸款需求增加、客戶數增加,因而帶來更高的成長。

  • On the mid-corporate side, we've reorganized the division a little bit to be more industry focused, less geographic focus. That has resulted in a nice pickup of new opportunities for us on the mid-corporate side of the business, and that was really (inaudible) in the first quarter for us with significant growth there. NDFI continues to grow somewhere in the range of 5% a year. There's still good opportunities both on the capital call line, the securitization business and on the lending to the direct funds, and we expect that to continue to go around 5%.

    在中型企業(mid-corporate)方面,我們對該部門做了一些重整,使其更聚焦於產業、較少以地理區域為主。這讓我們在中型企業業務端出現不錯的新機會增量,而這在第一季對我們而言確實帶來了顯著成長(聽不清)。NDFI持續以約每年5%的幅度成長。無論是在資金催繳額度(capital call line)、證券化業務,或對直投基金(direct funds)的放款方面,仍有不錯的機會,我們預期將持續維持約5%的成長。

  • And then finally, we have really not seen much pickup in the private equity side of the business. The sponsor business has still been, I would say, flattish year over year. So most of our growth has been the traditional mid-corporate and middle market space.

    最後,我們在私募股權端的業務並沒有看到太多回升。贊助商(sponsor)業務我會說年對年仍大致持平。因此我們的大部分成長仍來自傳統的中型企業與中型市場領域。

  • Ryan Nash - Analyst

    Ryan Nash - Analyst

  • Got it. And maybe just as my follow-up, Bruce. In the slides, you highlighted some of the things that you're doing with reimagine the bank, including corporate and the LLMs and a handful of things on AI. I guess, given the pace of change we're seeing in the markets in areas like AI, are there opportunities to accelerate any of these initiatives or adjust the timing given, again, just the rapid pace of change that we're seeing? Thanks.

    了解。那作為追問,Bruce。在投影片中,你強調了你們在「重新想像銀行(reimagine the bank)」方面正在做的一些事情,包括企業端、LLM(大型語言模型)以及一些AI相關事項。我想問的是,考量到我們在AI等領域看到的市場變化速度,是否有機會加速其中任何計畫,或因應我們看到的快速變化而調整時程?謝謝。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I'll start and put it to Brendan who's sponsoring and leading that program. But I think that's a really good call out, Ryan, is that the adoption curve, the innovation curve that we're seeing in AI is really, it's almost mind boggling. It's very significant. And so I think what we did when we set up the program was we took a very systematic approach to say, like here's how we do things today, how would we like to do them in the future, embracing the technology as we have it today, recognizing though that over a two- to three-year time frame, there's going to be a lot more innovation and a lot of chance to embrace even better tools.

    是的。我先開頭,然後交給負責贊助並主導該計畫的Brendan。但我認為你點得很好,Ryan:我們在AI上看到的採用曲線、創新曲線,真的幾乎令人難以置信。幅度非常大。因此我想,我們在建立這個計畫時採取了非常系統化的方法:例如,我們今天是怎麼做事的、未來希望怎麼做,並在擁抱現有技術的同時,也認知到在兩到三年的時間範圍內,還會有更多創新,以及更多機會去採用更好的工具。

  • And so maybe that creates a higher level of benefit, maybe that creates an acceleration and maybe it just creates new work streams that we haven't even thought or possible. So it's really a living, breathing program it's dynamic. It will incorporate. We'll have our telescope out looking at all the new things that are coming down the pike and figuring out how we can incorporate those in.

    因此,也許那會帶來更高層次的效益,也許會帶來加速,也許只是創造出我們甚至尚未想到或尚未意識到其可能性的全新工作流程。所以這真的是一個有生命、會呼吸的計畫,它是動態的。它會納入。我們會把望遠鏡架好,觀察所有即將到來的新事物,並思考我們如何把它們納入其中。

  • But I'd say one thing to leave you with, though, is that we've been, we've demonstrated over the years an ability to take innovation and take new approaches to how we're running the bank and put them into a program and deliver real financial benefits. So we won't create a lot of science fair projects and kind of use some of this new technology in ways that actually don't deliver real benefits. That's kind of our mindset as we go through this.

    但我想留給你的一點是:多年來我們已經證明,我們有能力把創新與銀行營運的新方法納入一個計畫中,並交付實質的財務效益。因此,我們不會做出一堆像科展作品那樣的專案,然後以一些其實無法帶來真正效益的方式去使用這些新技術。這就是我們推進這件事時的思維模式。

  • So Brendan?

    所以,Brendan?

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • Yeah. Thanks, Ryan. Your question is principally AI, but one point on the non-AI front, you saw from us in the quarter, the remagine bank initiative was principally self-funded by quick wins that were non-AI based. And so we've already got over $30 million in projected vendor saves for the year in the box with an expectation that, that number goes up.

    是的。謝謝,Ryan。你的問題主要是關於 AI,但先補充一點非 AI 的部分:你在本季看到,我們的 reimagine bank(重塑銀行)倡議主要是靠非 AI 的快速勝利來自籌資金。因此,我們今年在供應商節省方面,已經有超過 3,000 萬美元的預估節省額入帳,而且預期這個數字還會上升。

  • We've closed 19 corporate facilities, smaller facilities that's driving savings. So that has offset the investment already. So you're seeing real tangible impact in the program already this early in the year. On the AI front, to say two things. One is, you're right to point out the risk of speed of execution also is the speed of obsolescence as we put these in place, the idea that the best answer could be different in a quarter is very much front of our mind.

    我們已關閉 19 處企業設施(較小型的據點),這正在帶動節省。因此,這已經抵銷了相關投資。所以你會看到,今年才剛開始,這個計畫就已經產生非常具體、可衡量的影響。在 AI 方面,我想說兩點。第一,你指出執行速度的風險同時也是「汰舊速度」的風險:當我們把這些方案落地後,最佳答案可能在一季之內就不同了,這點我們非常放在心上。

  • So we're architecting all the things that we're building to be even more nimble than you might expect from a tech standpoint in the past. So as new models come up, we can easily plug and play and make sure we're taking advantage of the latest and greatest. So that's very much front of our mind. We very much have real AI use cases in market today. So in the call center, as an example, we've told you we expect to get 50% of the calls out by the end of the period.

    因此,我們在架構所有正在建置的東西時,會讓它們在技術面比你過去可能預期的更敏捷。這樣當新模型出現時,我們可以很容易地即插即用,確保能利用最新、最好的技術。所以這確實是我們非常關注的重點。我們目前在市場上已經有實際的 AI 使用案例。例如在客服中心,我們曾告訴各位,我們預期在該期間結束前把 50% 的來電移出(由非人工處理)。

  • It's already in pilot. In fact, we expect inside of this calendar year, by the end of the year, we should have 25% of our calls answered by non-humans with the expectation that will ramp in 27% to 50%. That really should hit in the summer and into the early fall. So this is very real. This isn't a back-loaded program all coming in 2028.

    它已經在試點中。事實上,我們預期在這個曆年內、到年底時,應該會有 25% 的來電由非人員來回答,並預期在 27% 到 50% 的區間持續爬升。這應該會在夏季到初秋真正顯現。所以這非常真實。這不是一個把所有成果都延後到 2028 年才出現的計畫。

  • And the tech space, as an example, we've deployed cloud to our engineers. We're already seeing a very material productivity improvement and leverage we're getting on our capital investment and deployment ranging from 30% improvement in productivity that in some tests we've done, it's been a 5 times to 10 times improvement in productivity. So now we're working on scaling it and engineering it for real scale. So we are moving very, very fast. We're keeping up with the pace and it's live and in production and our confidence is building.

    再以科技領域為例,我們已把雲端工具部署給工程師。我們已經看到非常顯著的生產力提升,以及在資本投資與部署上的槓桿效益;生產力提升約 30%,而在我們做的一些測試中,甚至達到 5 倍到 10 倍的生產力提升。所以現在我們正在推動擴大規模,並把它工程化以支援真正的大規模落地。因此我們推進得非常、非常快。我們跟得上節奏,而且已經上線並投入生產環境,我們的信心也在提升。

  • Ryan Nash - Analyst

    Ryan Nash - Analyst

  • Awesome. Thanks for all the color.

    太棒了。謝謝你提供這麼多細節。

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    Erika Najarian,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Just a few follow-up questions for me, please. So given everything that you've said about a record first quarter in cap markets and very full pipelines, picking up new mandates while some of these deals were pushed into closing in the second quarter or launching in the second quarter, it sounds like we should still subscribe to the 6% to 8% fee outlook growth for '26?

    嗨,早安。我這邊有幾個追問,麻煩了。所以,考量你們提到資本市場第一季創紀錄、管線非常飽滿,且在一些交易延後到第二季完成或在第二季啟動的同時仍取得新委任,看起來我們仍應該維持對 2026 年費用收入成長 6% 到 8% 的展望?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. We're not coming off any of those ranges the full year guide at this point, Erika.

    是的。Erika,就目前而言,我們不會調整全年指引的那些區間。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Perfect. And then my follow-up question is, thank you for the expansive answer on NIM and NII relative to the current forward curve. I guess this is a two-part question. First is, I think, Aunoy, you talked about the noninterest-bearing growth in a seasonally tough quarter for that, maybe where that noninterest-bearing growth is coming from? And to that end, if we do have a scenario where we have no rate cuts, can Citizens keep deposit costs stable in light of more robust growth from you guys on both the consumer and corporate.

    太好了。接著我的追問是:謝謝你們就 NIM 與 NII 相對於目前遠期曲線所做的詳盡回答。我想這是一個兩段式問題。第一個是,我想 Aunoy 你提到在一個季節性較不利的季度中,無息存款仍有成長,想請問這個無息存款成長主要來自哪裡?另外,在沒有降息的情境下,考量你們在消費與企業端都呈現較強勁的成長,Citizens 是否仍能維持存款成本穩定?

  • Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Erika, it's Aunoy here. We were quite pleased with our deposit performance this quarter. And as we saw actually good noninterest-bearing deposit growth Obviously, we have a couple of strategic initiatives. One is being the Private Bank where you saw the good DDA growth that the DDA percentage in the private bank is 30%. So we continue to see that coming.

    Erika,我是 Aunoy。我們對本季的存款表現相當滿意。而且我們確實看到無息存款有不錯的成長。當然,我們有幾項策略性倡議。其中之一是私人銀行(Private Bank),你也看到 DDA 成長良好,私人銀行的 DDA 佔比是 30%。所以我們持續看到這部分的動能。

  • And as you saw the balanced growth, we are seeing the DDAs grow along with it. So that's the, that's one thing that's really driving the DDA growth. But even as Brendan mentioned, even on the consumer side, there is a lot of growth that we are seeing in the low-cost [NTT] as we really build the relationships with our clients. So we are seeing a lot of good traction there.

    而且如你所見,在均衡成長之下,我們也看到 DDA 隨之成長。所以這是推動 DDA 成長的一個重點因素。但即使如 Brendan 所提到,即便在消費端,隨著我們真正建立與客戶的關係,我們也在低成本 [NTT] 看到大量成長。因此我們在那裡看到很好的進展。

  • And to your second question about where we go deposits from here. Obviously, deposit volume is going to depend on the overall economy, how the GDP goes, how the loan formation goes in the economy. But with some of the strategic initiatives, we believe that we can maintain in the competitive range about where deposits are going to go from here. And as you saw, our deposit betas our 50% this quarter and we have, we expect it to be in the high 40s, which is in line with the competition.

    至於你第二個問題,關於從現在起存款會往哪裡走。很明顯,存款量將取決於整體經濟狀況、GDP 走勢,以及經濟中的貸款形成(loan formation)情況。但憑藉一些策略性倡議,我們相信我們可以在具競爭力的區間內,維持存款接下來的走勢。而且如你所見,我們本季的存款 beta 是 50%,我們預期會落在高 40% 的區間,這與同業一致。

  • With that, maybe, Brendan, I'll pass it on to you to see if you have any comments.

    基於這些,也許,Brendan,我把問題交給你,看看你是否有任何補充。

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • I'll add a little color on each consumer and private, but out of the $118 billion or so of deposits that sit in the Consumer Bank, 52% of them are what we call low cost, which is either DDA or checking with interest. And in the retail bank checking with interest is sort of a sub-10 basis point type of cost. So for all intents and purposes, it's very similar to DDA. The COVID period of all those operating balances reducing is firmly behind us, and we're now seeing net growth. So we're up 130 basis points year over year and our low-cost deposit categories that's versus a peer average of about 50 basis points.

    我會就消費端與私人銀行端各補充一些細節:在消費銀行約 1,180 億美元左右的存款中,有 52% 是我們所稱的低成本存款,也就是 DDA 或計息支票存款。而在零售銀行,計息支票存款的成本大概是不到 10 個基點的水準。所以就各種實際目的而言,它與 DDA 非常相近。COVID 期間那些營運性餘額下降的情況已經明確成為過去式,而我們現在看到的是淨成長。因此,我們的低成本存款類別年增 130 個基點,而同業平均大約是 50 個基點。

  • So we are very firmly in the top quartile in terms of low-cost growth for the consumer bank, and we project that to continue with confidence in the outlook, which will really help control interest-bearing, your total cost of deposits when you include the interest-bearing side.

    因此,就消費者銀行的低成本成長而言,我們非常穩固地位於前四分位數;而且我們有信心預期這種趨勢將在展望期內持續,這將真正有助於控制計息部分——也就是把計息端納入後——您的存款總成本。

  • And then Aunoy pointed this up, in the Private Bank, we ended the quarter with very strong spot numbers. It's actually 40% DDA over 50% when you add in the checking with interest in the Private Bank itself as well. So we're expecting that to be in that sort of range in the same range that we've seen in the past. So we're getting this really strong growth in the Private Bank without breaking the quality metrics and this far in, that's a real positive to see. And broadly, we expect that to continue looking forward.

    接著 Aunoy 也特別指出,在私人銀行方面,我們在本季末的即期數據非常強勁。實際上,若把私人銀行本身的計息支票存款也納入,DDA 佔比是 40%,加總後超過 50%。因此,我們預期它會維持在這樣的區間,也就是與過去所見相同的範圍。所以我們在不犧牲品質指標的情況下,於私人銀行取得非常強勁的成長;走到目前這一步,看到這點是很大的正面訊號。整體而言,我們預期未來也會持續如此。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Pancari, Evercore ISS.

    John Pancari,Evercore ISS。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Good morning. Just on the Private Bank side, just what, see if you can give us just a bit more color in terms of what are you seeing in terms of the mix of loan growth? How much momentum are you seeing on the mortgage side versus the commercial capital call type of loan generation. And then if you could maybe give us breakout of like where new money yields are that you're bringing on loans in the Private Bank, maybe on the mortgage side as well as on the other type of lending capital calls included.

    早安。就私人銀行這邊,想請你再多補充一些細節:你們看到的放款成長組合是什麼樣子?房貸端的動能相較於商業資本催繳(capital call)類型的放款生成,你們分別看到多少動能?另外,如果可以的話,能否拆分一下你們在私人銀行新承作放款的收益率大概落在哪裡——例如房貸端,以及其他類型的放款(包含資本催繳)?

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • Yeah. On the loan side, it has, the longer-term trend line, it's been pretty evenly mixed between mortgage, multifamily, commercial real estate and private equity capital call lines the utilization rates this quarter on the PE lines were down a little bit, so it sort of artificially suppressed the linked quarter growth was more driven by mortgage and multifamily CRE, which is pretty evenly split between those categories. both of those asset classes where we use the balance sheet comes with deep, deep relationship-based banking.

    好的。在放款端,從較長期的趨勢線來看,組合相當平均地分布在房貸、多戶住宅、商用不動產,以及私募股權資本催繳額度(capital call lines)。本季 PE 額度的動用率略有下降,因此在某種程度上「人為」壓抑了與前一季相比的成長;本季的連續季成長更多是由房貸與多戶住宅 CRE 所帶動,而這兩個類別之間也大致各半。這兩類資產中,我們使用資產負債表承作,並伴隨非常、非常深的關係型銀行業務。

  • And so the net returns on the customers are actually quite high. When you look at our overall loan yields versus our deposit costs, we remain in the range of north of 400, 425 basis points of net spread between our loan yields and our deposit costs, and that has been consistent since we launched.

    因此,客戶的淨回報其實相當高。當你看我們整體放款收益率相對於存款成本時,我們仍維持在放款收益率與存款成本之間超過 400 到 425 個基點的淨利差區間,而且自我們推出以來一直都很一致。

  • And so the growth that we're seeing is actually deep relationship based, but even just asset asset yields minus deposit costs, it's net accretive to our NIM position. So the return profile of the business overall remains in the mid-20s because of that with high profitability on the balance sheet, and we see nothing that will take us off that trajectory.

    所以我們看到的成長確實是深度關係型的;但即便只看資產收益率減去存款成本,對我們的 NIM(淨利息收益率)部位也是淨增益。因此,整體業務的報酬輪廓仍維持在 20% 中段,原因就在於資產負債表端的高獲利性;而我們看不到任何會讓我們偏離這條軌跡的因素。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks, Brendan. And then on the capital front, Bruce, maybe if you could kind of I think you talked about your capital allocation priorities from organic versus buyback and then maybe on the M&A interest side. I know you've been historically uninterested in whole bank M&A. Just curious if that's changed for any reason at this point. Thanks.

    了解。謝謝你,Brendan。另外在資本方面,Bruce,也許你可以談談——我想你提到過資本配置的優先順序:內生成長相對於庫藏股回購,以及在併購(M&A)意願方面。我知道你們過去一向對整體銀行的併購不太感興趣。想請教目前是否因任何原因而有所改變?謝謝。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks. I would say the capital and priorities are really unchanged. They've been stable. So we always look to make sure that we have a good dividend on the stock and that we can raise our dividend as earnings grow, which will be an objective for this year.

    是的。謝謝。我會說資本與優先順序基本上沒有改變。一直都很穩定。因此,我們一向會先確保股票有良好的股利,並且隨著盈餘成長能夠提高股利,這也會是今年的目標。

  • The second place objective is to make sure we have capital supporting our clients and supporting the growth of the bank. So organic growth is kind of next up. And then the residual, you can look to do potentially some selective acquisitions. For example, in the first quarter, we bought very small but high-quality M&A boutique to, as Ted indicated, we go deeper into these industry verticals. Do we have everything we need to really serve those clients well.

    第二個目標是確保我們有資本來支持客戶並支持銀行成長。所以內生成長算是下一個優先項。然後剩餘的部分,我們可能會考慮做一些選擇性的收購。例如第一季,我們收購了一家規模很小但品質很高的併購精品投行;如 Ted 所說,這能讓我們在這些產業垂直領域更深入。我們是否具備真正把這些客戶服務好的所有要素。

  • And in some instances, rather than hire people. It's faster just to go out and buy an M&A boutique that doesn't use a lot of capital, but we'll certainly look for things like that or maybe some things in the payment space that can accelerate our growth a little bit, but these are generally going to be small.

    而在某些情況下,相較於自行招募人才,直接出去收購一家不需要動用太多資本的併購精品投行會更快;但我們當然也會尋找這類機會,或是支付領域中一些能稍微加速我們成長的項目,不過這些通常都會是小型的。

  • And then whatever we have as the residual, really goes to buying back our stock. And I still think the stock is very attractive here, as you would expect me to say. But in any case, we're, we bought a lot of stock in, in the first quarter, $300 million.

    接著,剩餘的部分基本上就會用來回購我們的股票。我仍然認為目前這檔股票非常有吸引力——你也會預期我會這麼說。但無論如何,我們在第一季回購了很多股票,金額是 3 億美元。

  • And we gave in our guide that we're looking to buy $225 million here in the second quarter. So we'll have, if we keep growing our overall results and our earnings will have lots of flexibility to both grow the bank organically plus buyback stock.

    而且我們在指引中也提到,第二季我們預計回購 2.25 億美元。因此,如果我們持續推升整體業績與盈餘,我們將有很大的彈性,同時推動銀行的內生成長並回購股票。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Got it. All right. Thanks, Bruce.

    了解。好。謝謝你,Bruce。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Rochester, Cantor.

    David Rochester,Cantor。

  • Dave Rochester - Analyst

    Dave Rochester - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, guys.

    各位早安。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安。

  • Dave Rochester - Analyst

    Dave Rochester - Analyst

  • Back on capital, you mentioned the stress tests coming up and the potential to get some relief there. your buffer is 4.5%, it seems like you could see some pretty significant relief this time around. And if you do, does that at all come into play with how you think about the 10.5% level for CET1, especially in the context of seeing some of the larger banks moving their CET1 ratios lower recently? Thanks.

    回到資本議題,你提到即將到來的壓力測試,以及可能在那裡獲得一些緩解。你們的緩衝是 4.5%,看起來這次可能會看到相當顯著的緩解。如果真的如此,這是否會影響你們對 CET1 10.5% 水準的看法——尤其是在看到一些大型銀行最近把 CET1 比率下調的背景下?謝謝。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So what I would say on that is that we've managed the capital kind of where we think it's appropriate given the environment and stakeholder expectations. And so we've been at the high side of our range of 10% to 10.5% or slightly over the 10.5% for the last several quarters. The SCB has not really been a binding constraint. And I've said in the past, it's to me, more of a scarlet letter I can't believe that we're getting that high of an SCB, which is completely outsized relative to peers.

    是的。我會這麼說:我們一直把資本管理在我們認為合適的水準,考量的是環境以及利害關係人的期待。因此,過去幾季我們都處在 10% 到 10.5% 區間的高端,或是略高於 10.5%。SCB(壓力資本緩衝)其實並沒有真正成為具約束力的限制。而我過去也說過,對我而言,它更像是一個「紅字標記」:我很難相信我們的 SCB 會高到那種程度,與同業相比完全不成比例。

  • I do think that the Fed is now kind of taking a hard look at why are there some of these inaccuracies that take place. And so we'll see the models aren't really going into this round, but there's other things that I think the progression coming out of where we were in '23 to the strong balance sheet and jump-off point we have today, higher revenue levels.

    我確實認為聯準會現在正在更嚴格地檢視:為什麼會出現這些不精確之處。因此我們拭目以待——模型在這一輪不會納入,但我認為從 2023 年的狀況一路走到今天,我們有更強的資產負債表與起始點、更高的營收水準等其他因素,會帶來一些進展。

  • And then the scenario was particularly severe in the last cycle that is better this cycle. So we would expect to see the notional equivalent SCB even though it won't go into effect, we would expect to see that hopefully quite a bit lower and more in line with peers even before we see some of the model changes like the model changes of not picking up this benefit of swaps was really a big miss. But even without fixing things like that, I think we'll see improvement.

    此外,上一次循環的情境特別嚴苛,而這一次的情境較為溫和。因此,我們預期名目等值的 SCB(即便不會生效)應該會明顯降低,並且更貼近同業——甚至在我們看到一些模型變更之前;例如模型沒有捕捉到交換(swaps)的效益,確實是很大的遺漏。但即使不修正這類問題,我也認為我們會看到改善。

  • So I would say, we'll wait and see like how the environment shapes up. Right now, we're in a war with a lot of uncertainty and profitability is still increasing. So I think carrying a little extra capital through the course of 2026 makes sense. But certainly, there'll be opportunities to reassess that if we get a positive outcome to the war and the market conditions improve, and we continue to deliver a higher level of earnings it might be possible to start to ratchet that down, but probably that would be a '27 event and not something that you'd see us do in '26.

    所以我會說,我們會先觀望,看看環境會如何發展。目前我們正處於一場充滿不確定性的戰爭之中,而獲利能力仍在提升。因此我認為在 2026 年期間多持有一些額外資本是合理的。但當然,如果戰爭出現正面結果、市場狀況改善,而且我們持續交出更高水準的獲利,那就會有機會重新評估,可能可以開始逐步下調,但大概會是 '27 年的事件,而不是你們會在 '26 年看到我們做的事。

  • Dave Rochester - Analyst

    Dave Rochester - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you for that. And then just switching to the Private Bank. You had some great deposit growth this quarter, and you mentioned some of the spread details on that incremental business, which sounded great, 400 to 425 spread. I was just curious what what the rough cost of those deposits were in terms of the growth coming in this quarter? And if you could just give an update on the talent pipeline in that business, that would be great. Thanks.

    好的,謝謝你的說明。接著切換到私人銀行。你們本季存款成長很不錯,而且你提到新增業務的利差細節,聽起來很棒,利差有 400 到 425 個基點。我只是好奇,本季新增的這些存款,其成長流入的存款大概成本是多少?另外如果你能更新一下該業務的人才管道狀況,那就太好了。謝謝。

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • Yeah. The deposit cost, looking at now to carts 220-ish basis points is the total deposit cost when you blend in the interest-bearing plus (multiple speakers) that.

    是的。存款成本方面,現在看起來大概是 220 個基點左右,這是把計息存款加上(多位發言者)那部分混合後的總存款成本。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So it's going to be somewhere is going to be lower than our commercial deposit funding costs but higher than pure retail is one way to think about that.

    對。所以可以這樣理解:它會低於我們商業存款的資金成本,但會高於純零售存款。

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • And remember, the interest-bearing side is mostly still front book. So you've got a heavy piece of DDA and then the interest-bearing side is front book. So the portfolio is somewhat barbelled. Over time, we can smooth that out as the business builds.

    另外請記得,計息那一端大多仍是前簿(front book)。所以你有很大一塊是活期存款(DDA),而計息那一端是前簿。因此整體組合有點呈現兩端偏重(barbelled)。隨著業務發展,時間久了我們可以把它平滑化。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And the other thing that I would say is we opened three PBO offices this quarter, and we have two more geared up, one this quarter and one later in the year. that will bring us up. I think we're at 9. That brings us to 11 by the end of the year.

    對。另外我想說的是,我們本季開了三個 PBO 辦公室,還有兩個已經準備就緒,一個在本季、另一個在今年稍晚。這會讓我們達到……我想我們現在是 9 個。到年底會到 11 個。

  • So that's an important part of the deposit gathering strategy to have an ability to go out to successful people and walk into, we call them two-legged customers in addition to some of the corporate relationships that we have and we get billboard value from having those new locations opened. I would say over the next three, four years, we could see that PBO count get up to 25% to 30%, if you recall, I think First Republic had maybe 80%.

    所以這是存款募集策略的重要一環:我們能夠接觸成功人士並走進去——我們稱之為「雙腿客戶」(two-legged customers)——此外也包括我們既有的一些企業關係;而且新據點開設也能帶來招牌效益(billboard value)。我會說在接下來三、四年,我們可能會看到 PBO 數量提升到 25% 到 30%;如果你還記得,我想 First Republic 可能有到 80%。

  • I don't think we're going to go near there. But I think we can get into the key markets and kind of have 25 to 30, which will also kind of keep that deposit machine cranking along. In terms of talent, the main needs we've taken the business from about 150 people at launch up to close to 600 today, including all the support dedicated support people.

    我不認為我們會接近那個水準。但我認為我們可以在關鍵市場做到大概 25 到 30 個,這也會讓那台存款機器持續運轉。就人才而言,主要需求是:我們把這項業務從啟動時約 150 人,擴張到今天接近 600 人,包含所有支援、專職支援人員。

  • I think the plan for this year is to kind of continue to build out Florida is one of the things on the PB side, but then continue with the wealth lift-outs. And so we have a pretty good pipeline on private wealth lift-outs. None of them hit in the first quarter. We hopefully will catch up here where we want to be in the second quarter, but that's also a real focal point to make sure that we have the wealth professionals co-located with our private bankers so we can deliver kind of total solutions to the customer.

    我想今年的計畫是在私人銀行端持續擴建佛羅里達,這是其中一項;同時也會持續進行財富團隊挖角(wealth lift-outs)。因此我們在私人財富挖角方面有相當不錯的管道。第一季沒有任何一個到位。我們希望第二季能追上我們想要的進度;但這也是一個真正的重點,確保財富專業人員與私人銀行家同地辦公,讓我們能為客戶提供整體解決方案。

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • The only thing I would add is our talent pipeline is really robust and attracting talent to this platform. It's not been a problem we, over the course of the last few years. held ourselves back candidly a little bit for two reasons. One is our commitment to the market to deliver the profitability and the results we committed and then just making sure the platform is ready. We've had a lot of investment we had to make to connect all of our products and deliver the service.

    我唯一要補充的是,我們的人才管道非常強,這個平台吸引人才並不是問題;在過去幾年裡,我們坦白說因為兩個原因稍微放慢了腳步。(其一)是我們對市場的承諾:要交出我們承諾的獲利能力與成果;(其二)是要確保平台已準備就緒。我們做了很多投資,必須把所有產品串接起來並提供服務。我們的投資很多。

  • Our NPS has gone up from 70 to 76. And growth is obviously really, really strong and we're feeling good about the foundation of the platform. So we're starting to think about how we play some more offense on bringing talent in selectively. We want to maintain a really high bar that's really important to us both on the wealth side and the banking side, we're searching for a talent and a talent only. And so that's what we're bringing in. (multiple speakers)

    我們的 NPS 從 70 提升到 76。而成長顯然非常、非常強勁,我們對平台基礎感到很有信心。所以我們開始思考,如何在選擇性引進人才方面更積極一些。我們希望維持非常高的門檻,這對我們在財富端與銀行端都很重要;我們在找的是人才,而且只找人才。所以這就是我們要引進的人。(多位發言者)

  • Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • On the deposit side, I would just add that we are also bringing good quality deposits, the lendability of these deposits are good. So just so that we can use it in the broader franchise (inaudible)

    在存款端,我只想補充,我們也在引進高品質存款,這些存款的可放貸性(lendability)很好。因此我們可以在更廣泛的特許經營體系中使用它(聽不清楚)

  • Dave Rochester - Analyst

    Dave Rochester - Analyst

  • So ton of great detail, guys. Appreciate it.

    各位提供了非常多很棒的細節。感謝。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    Ebrahim Poonawala,美國銀行。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Thank you. Just two quick follow-ups. Maybe, Bruce, in your prepared remarks, you talked about looking at New York brand strategy, I guess you plan to open more branches in New York. Just talk to us, is that more Private Bank related? Or do you see an opportunity to just open more branches in New York and just the size of kind of what you're thinking there?

    謝謝。兩個簡短追問。也許,Bruce,在你準備好的發言中,你提到在檢視紐約的品牌策略,我猜你們計畫在紐約開更多分行。請跟我們談談:這比較偏私人銀行相關嗎?或者你們看到在紐約開更多分行的機會?以及你們大概在想的規模有多大?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, sure. I'll start and flip it to Brendan. But I think I referenced this on a prior call is that we see a real opportunity to kind of double down on our footprint. Some of our peer banks are okay, taking the view that our footprint is pretty saturated and we need to go outside footprint to different regions of the country to get more growth.

    好的,當然。我先說,然後交給 Brendan。但我想我在之前的電話會議提過:我們看到一個很大的機會,可以在我們的既有版圖上加碼。我們的一些同業銀行認為,我們的版圖已經相當飽和,需要走出版圖、到全國不同地區去取得更多成長。

  • That's not our strategy that we're arriving at its where we're already well known, we can make some investment in the branch system to really optimize locations, optimize the mix between in-store and stand-alone branches and try to pick up the growth rate of deposits just in our footprint.

    那不是我們正在形成的策略;我們的策略是:在我們已經很有知名度的地方,對分行系統做一些投資,真正去優化據點、優化店中型(in-store)與獨立型(stand-alone)分行的組合,並嘗試在我們的版圖內提升存款成長率。

  • And then we don't, we avoid all that top of funnel spend advertising in a different region where nobody knows who we are. People already know who we are. So we think that makes sense. My hope is that when we get to the end and we kind of unveil this program that we'll be spending some incremental dollars on the branch network but we'll pick up that growth rate in deposits maybe by 200, 300 basis points over what the normal GDP growth rate was, and if you look at that over a 10-year period, that's another $20 billion to $30 billion of deposits and deposits, obviously the lifeblood of a strong bank. So this is really important to us.

    然後我們就能避免在一個沒人認識我們的地區,去做那些漏斗頂端(top of funnel)的廣告支出。大家已經認識我們。所以我們認為這樣做是合理的。我希望當我們走到最後、並揭露這個計畫時,我們會在分行網路上增加一些額外支出,但我們能把存款成長率提高,可能比正常 GDP 成長率高出 200、300 個基點;如果你把這放到 10 年期間來看,那就是額外 200 億到 300 億美元的存款,而存款顯然是強健銀行的命脈。所以這對我們非常重要。

  • Stay tuned for more details probably at the middle of the year, but New York is clearly an area where proof of concept, we got in on the back of combining two franchises that, frankly, were from a retail standpoint in need of some TLC. We put our best people down there and brought our version of banking into a highly competitive market, and we're having great success. It is our fastest-growing region in terms of households and deposits. But we're still not at the full scale with where we would need to be to really penetrate that opportunity.

    請持續關注,更多細節可能會在年中左右公布;但紐約顯然是一個概念驗證(proof of concept)的區域。我們之所以能切入,是因為把兩個特許經營(franchises)結合起來,而坦白說,從零售角度看它們都需要一些細心照料(TLC)。我們把最優秀的人才派到那裡,把我們的銀行模式帶進一個競爭非常激烈的市場,而且我們取得了很大的成功。就家庭戶數與存款而言,那是我們成長最快的區域。但就我們要真正深入滲透那個機會而言,我們的規模仍未達到所需的完整水準。

  • So as part of that broader effort, you would expect us to open more retail branches in Manhattan in surrounding environments, and we're pretty excited by that opportunity. We probably will open another one or two PB locations in Manhattan, for example. But the focus here really is to optimize what we're going to do on the retail side.

    因此,作為更廣泛努力的一部分,你會預期我們會在曼哈頓及其周邊環境開設更多零售分行,我們對這個機會感到相當興奮。例如,我們可能會在曼哈頓再開一到兩個私人銀行(PB)據點。但這裡的重點其實是要把我們在零售端要做的事情最佳化。

  • Brendan, anything to add.

    Brendan,你有什麼要補充的嗎。

  • Brendan Coughlin - President

    Brendan Coughlin - President

  • I guess a sign of an incredibly aligned leadership team you took almost every word out of my mouth. The only thing I would add is just give you a piece of color in New York and then on the rest of the markets. But in a world post-COVID, it's, there are a lot of questions on the future of retail branches and the importance of them, but it's still very much truth, if you want outsized operating leverage in retail banking, you need 4% plus share of branch density and despite all of our incredible successes in New York, we're still at sort of, call it, 2.25%, 2.5% branch density. So we do think we can build on our momentum by densifying a little bit. And we'll do that thoughtfully over time.

    我想這正顯示我們的領導團隊高度一致,你幾乎把我想說的每一句話都說完了。我唯一要補充的是,提供一些關於紐約以及其他市場的背景說明。在後疫情(post-COVID)的世界裡,大家對零售分行的未來與其重要性有很多疑問,但有一點仍然非常真實:如果你想在零售銀行業務取得超額的營運槓桿(outsized operating leverage),你需要分行密度市占達到 4% 以上;儘管我們在紐約取得了許多令人驚豔的成功,我們目前大概只有 2.25%、2.5% 的分行密度。因此我們確實認為,可以透過稍微提高密度來延續我們的動能。而且我們會隨時間推移、審慎地去做。

  • As Bruce mentioned, we'll give you more details as we get towards the middle part of the year. We also have some self-funding dynamics that still exist in the rest of the franchise. We still have lot of in-store branches that we'll be able to reposition a bit to traditional branches in the non-New York parts of the footprint that will free up some expense and capital to densify in New York.

    如同 Bruce 提到的,等接近年中時我們會提供更多細節。我們在其他特許經營版圖(franchise)的其餘部分,仍然存在一些自我挹注(self-funding)的動態。我們仍有許多店內分行(in-store branches),可以在非紐約的據點範圍內,稍作重新配置為傳統分行,這將釋放一些費用與資本,好讓我們在紐約提高密度。

  • So we'll bring everybody through the plan here in short order. But really, as Bruce pointed out, the goal really is to drive sustainable market share gains and outsized deposit growth in retail to fund the rest of the franchise.

    所以我們很快就會帶大家完整走過這個計畫。但如同 Bruce 指出的,目標其實是推動可持續的市占提升,以及零售端超額的存款成長,來支撐整個特許經營版圖的其他業務。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • That's good color. Thank you. And just a quick follow-up, Bruce, for you on the capital plans, like SCB should benefit Citizens once that gets mark-to-market. When we look at the benefit from the capital proposals, it's something we've begun to think about, do you think the tangible common equity ratio then becomes something that you're more mindful for in a world where the RWA density is coming down?

    這些背景很有幫助。謝謝。另外一個快速追問,Bruce,關於資本規劃:像 SCB 一旦按市價重估(mark-to-market),應該會讓 Citizens 受益。當我們看資本提案帶來的好處時,這是我們已開始思考的事情;在風險加權資產(RWA)密度下降的情境下,你是否會更在意有形普通股權比率(tangible common equity ratio)?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. That's a really thoughtful question. So I do think while that's not a regulatory ratio, it is something that bank investors have focused on over time. And so as I said, we're going to have to triage when this good news comes in, you have the triage as to what our market expectations, what are regulatory expectations, what are rating agencies' expectations. But yes, I think that could happen. I think that TCE ratio could be something that analysts and investors move up in prominence.

    是的。這是一個非常周到的問題。所以我確實認為,雖然那不是一個監管比率,但長期以來一直是銀行投資人關注的指標。因此如我所說,當這些好消息到來時,我們必須做取捨(triage):市場的期待是什麼、監管的期待是什麼、以及信評機構的期待是什麼。但沒錯,我認為那是可能發生的。我認為 TCE 比率可能會在分析師與投資人心中的重要性提升。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thank you.

    很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

    RBC Capital Markets 的 Gerard Cassidy。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Hi, Bruce. Hi, Aunoy. You guys have done a good job of expanding the commercial banking business. You talked about it on the call already. Can you share with us when you go into a new market like Florida or California, now clearly, you're building your national brand, but it's I don't think it's yet at Bank of America level in terms of recognition. So how do you balance when you go into these markets that could provide growth on the commercial side, how do you balance the risk with growth?

    嗨,Bruce。嗨,Aunoy。你們在擴展商業銀行業務方面做得很好。你們在電話會議上也已經談過。你們能否分享一下,當你們進入像佛羅里達或加州這樣的新市場時,顯然你們正在打造全國性品牌,但我認為在辨識度上還沒到美國銀行(Bank of America)那個等級。那麼當你們進入這些可能在商業端帶來成長的市場時,你們如何在風險與成長之間取得平衡?

  • And then second, are you leading with your balance sheet? Or are you building out treasury products first and then lending to those customers? How do you guys approach that?

    第二,你們是以資產負債表(balance sheet)為先來切入嗎?還是先建立財資(treasury)產品,然後再對這些客戶放款?你們是怎麼做的?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me start and I'll flip right to Ted. But I would say we have tried to lever an expanded presence in these new markets where we brought a private banking operation or private wealth operations and then kind of magnify that by also bringing in kind of the corporate banking teams. And what we aspire to is to bring very experienced, high-quality bankers onto the platform who kind of have a growth ambition and who are good team players.

    我先說,然後我會馬上交給 Ted。但我會說,我們嘗試在這些新市場中,利用我們已擴大的據點存在感:先帶入私人銀行或私人財富(private wealth)業務,然後再透過引入企業銀行團隊把它放大。我們的目標是把非常資深、品質很高、具備成長企圖心、而且擅長團隊合作的銀行家帶到這個平台上。

  • And so one of the reasons that we're successful overall in the Corporate Bank is, we worked very collaboratively with a coverage banker who has product partners that they work together to come up with good ideas. We call it thought leadership.

    因此,我們在企業銀行整體能成功的原因之一,是我們與負責覆蓋的客戶經理(coverage banker)非常協作;他們與產品夥伴一起合作,提出好的想法。我們稱之為思想領導(thought leadership)。

  • But at every touch point with the client, we're showing up. We understand your business. We want to get to know you. We have some ideas about how you can be more successful. And that really resonates with customers.

    但在與客戶的每一個接觸點,我們都會到位。我們了解你的業務。我們想更認識你。我們也有一些想法,能幫助你更成功。而這點確實能引起客戶共鳴。

  • So I think there's always room for market participants who do that well. So it's really a combination of the visibility of already being in the market. And now we have like 400 people in California over 400 people. And that kind of works together to raise our visibility and our presence and then staying committed to really high-quality people and staying committed to that one Citizens collaborative model where we can deliver solutions to the customer. Ted?

    所以我認為,市場上永遠有空間留給能把這件事做得好的參與者。因此,這其實是多種因素的結合:我們已經在市場中的能見度,而且現在我們在加州有大約 400 多人、超過 400 人。這些因素共同提升了我們的能見度與存在感;同時我們也持續承諾用高品質的人才,並堅持 Citizens 的單一協作模式(one Citizens collaborative model),讓我們能為客戶提供解決方案。Ted?

  • Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

    Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

  • Yeah. Bruce, the one Citizens model that we've implemented throughout our bank has really gone to differentiate ourselves as we expand into these new regions. So to your question, Gerard we don't necessarily lead with treasury, don't necessarily lead with credit, but we try to lead with his ideas to our customers and where we differentiate ourselves is as we pick what customers we're going to attract we really look at where do we differentiate ourselves versus our competitors.

    是的。Bruce,我們在全行推行的「一個 Citizens」模式,確實讓我們在擴展到這些新區域時形成差異化。所以回到你的問題,Gerard,我們不一定先從財資切入,也不一定先從授信切入;我們會嘗試先以對客戶有價值的想法切入。而我們的差異化在於:當我們選擇要吸引哪些客戶時,我們會非常重視我們相對競爭對手的差異化優勢在哪裡。

  • So is it an industry that we have a specialization, is it sponsor, a private equity group that we know better. We are trying to, and then how do we bring all the parts of the bank together to give the customer an experience that they wouldn't necessarily get from somebody else.

    例如:是不是我們有專長的產業?是不是我們更了解的贊助方(sponsor)、也就是某個私募股權(private equity)團體?我們在努力思考的是:如何把銀行的所有部分整合起來,讓客戶獲得一種不一定能從其他人那裡得到的體驗。

  • And when you have the Private Bank and all the great people and all the relationships that they have and the ability to interact with people that we normally, if we were just showing up with a balance sheet, we wouldn't have the ability to address those customers, bringing the private banking and combining all those together has really been what we try to achieve as we've been building out in these markets.

    而當你擁有私人銀行,以及那些優秀的人才、他們所建立的關係,並且能與一些人互動——如果我們只是帶著資產負債表去拜訪,通常是無法觸及那些客戶的——把私人銀行帶進來並把所有這些整合在一起,正是我們在這些市場建置過程中努力想達成的目標。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And I would say that, look, kind of companies in the regions we're targeting or the industries we're targeting are very receptive to have a new player with a really strong approach that they're not exactly, some of the bigger players aren't covering themselves in glory when it comes to how they cover middle market and mid-corporate companies. And so it feels like we're pushing on an open door to some extent when we go into these markets.

    我會說,你看,我們鎖定的區域或我們鎖定的產業裡的這類公司,對於有一個採取非常強勢作法的新進者其實非常願意接受;因為在服務中型市場與中型企業客群方面,一些大型同業並沒有把自己做得多出色。所以當我們進入這些市場時,在某種程度上感覺像是在推一扇已經半開的門。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Very helpful. I appreciate it. And then pivoting over to AI, Brendan touched on it a moment ago, Bruce, and maybe it's for Brendan as well. When do you think we get to the point where you folks and your peers probably as well are able to go out and tell investors, we just spent x millions of dollars on AI, and this is bottom line impact. Earnings per share improved 2% or the ROTCE number went up 50 basis points because of the x millions of dollars we just spent on AI. Do you think we can never get to something like that down the road? Or is that just too optimistic?

    非常有幫助。謝謝你。接著把話題轉到 AI,Brendan 剛剛提到了一點,Bruce,也許 Brendan 也可以回答。你覺得什麼時候會到一個程度,你們以及可能你們的同業也一樣,能夠對投資人說:我們在 AI 上花了 x 百萬美元,而這就是對最終盈餘的影響。例如每股盈餘提升了 2%,或是 ROTCE 因為我們剛在 AI 上投入的 x 百萬美元而上升了 50 個基點。你覺得未來我們永遠不可能做到那樣的量化連結嗎?還是那只是太過樂觀?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think it's going to be hard. It's going to be a very dynamic process, and there's a lot of cross currents that go through the P&L. I think we'll try to do that with reimagine the bank. We're not kind of detailing any notable items for what the cost is of restructuring and investment and consultants and all of that.

    是的。我認為那會很難。這會是一個非常動態的過程,損益表(P&L)裡會有很多交互影響的因素。我想我們會嘗試在「重新想像銀行(reimagine the bank)」這個計畫上做到某種程度的揭露。我們目前並沒有把重整、投資、顧問費等相關成本的任何顯著項目逐一細列。

  • But I think will certainly delineate it so that you understand what we're expanding. And so just within that program when we get to the $450 million run rate, that's going to be a very good return on what it took to stand that up. So that might be one way that you can kind of get a sniff of how much are they spending and what benefits are resulting.

    但我認為我們當然會把它劃分清楚,讓你了解我們正在擴張的是什麼。因此,就在這個計畫內,當我們達到 4.5 億美元的年化(run rate)時,這將會對建立這套體系所投入的成本帶來非常好的報酬。所以這可能是一種方式,讓你大致嗅到他們花了多少錢、以及帶來了哪些效益。

  • But I do think it's a dynamic process and a lot of things, there'll be a lot of cross currents in the economy and other things. And so you might not have the cleanliness of connection that you're talking about that you're aspiring to.

    但我確實認為這是一個動態的過程,而且有很多事情——經濟以及其他因素都會帶來許多交互影響。因此,你可能無法得到你所說、你所期望的那種乾淨俐落的因果連結。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Appreciate that. Thank you, Bruce.

    了解,謝謝。謝謝你,Bruce。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Houston, Autonomous Research.

    Ken Houston,Autonomous Research。

  • Ken Houston - Analyst

    Ken Houston - Analyst

  • Thanks. Just one here on expenses. So the first quarter and then the second quarter guide kind of get us to that 4.5%-ish, 5% year over year cost growth. I know a lot of the reimagined the bank benefit comes in the second half as long, as well as some of the spending. So can you just help us just understand the cadence of expense growth as we kind of see that benefit. And as you balance performance related and investments against that as we move through the second half? And should we just be kind of thinking about that 4.5% overall guide that you gave us in January. Thanks.

    謝謝。我這邊只有一個關於費用的問題。第一季以及你們對第二季的指引,大致讓我們看到年增約 4.5% 左右、到 5% 的成本成長。我知道「重新想像銀行」的效益多半在下半年才會顯現,同時也會有一些支出。所以你能否協助我們理解費用成長的節奏,當我們開始看到那些效益時會是怎樣。以及當你們在下半年在績效相關支出與投資之間做平衡時,會如何呈現?我們是否應該就以你們一月給的整體約 4.5% 指引來思考?謝謝。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Ken, so we're not coming off the 4.5%, and there is a seasonal pattern of expense recognition that the first quarter has the FICA and associated payroll items that go with the bonus, paying the bonus. And then the second quarter tends to be where we would bring in people. And after they get bonus. And so any net adds that we want to have, it's a big period for the net adds.

    是的。Ken,我們沒有偏離 4.5%,而且費用認列有季節性:第一季會有 FICA(社會保險稅)以及與發放獎金相關的薪資項目。第二季通常是我們會招募進人的時點。在他們領完獎金之後。所以任何我們想要的淨增員,第二季是一個淨增員很大的期間。

  • So overlay some reimagine the bank onetime costs in the first half of the year, you're going to kind of peak, I would say, in the upward pressures and your merit happens in the second quarter early, second quarter. So you're kind of peaking in the first half of the year and then it wouldn't be as much net investment spending on ads in the second half of the year and then some of the benefits coming in from reimagine the bank will flow through in the second half of the year.

    再加上上半年「重新想像銀行」的一次性成本,你會看到上行壓力大概會在上半年達到高峰;而年度調薪(merit)也會在第二季初發生。所以你在上半年會處於高峰,到了下半年,新增人力等淨投資支出就不會那麼多,同時「重新想像銀行」的一些效益也會在下半年反映出來。

  • So you could actually see expenses start to dip a bit in the second half. So we'll obviously give you that guidance as we get to the second quarter, we'll tell you what we think in the third quarter. But just to preview it we're still holding to the 4.5% for the year, and it's kind of, the build is more front-loaded and then kind of levels off or even declines a little. Yeah.

    因此你其實可能會看到下半年的費用開始略為下滑。當然,我們到第二季時會給你指引,並告訴你我們對第三季的看法。但先預告一下,我們仍維持全年 4.5% 的目標;費用的增加比較偏向前置,之後就趨於持平,甚至可能小幅下降。是的。

  • Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And Ken, I would just add, we are pleased with the expense discipline that we had in the first quarter. Really the growth quarter on quarter was all of our, the seasonality that Bruce mentioned. And as Brendan mentioned, we have good line of sight to some of the savings that are coming. So we mentioned the vendor sales as well as some of the property closures. And so we feel very good about some of the some of the downtick that we will see and the benefit that's come there.

    Ken,我再補充一下,我們對第一季的費用紀律感到滿意。實際上,季對季的成長全部都是 Bruce 提到的季節性因素。而且如 Brendan 所說,我們對即將到來的一些節省有很清楚的能見度。我們也提到了供應商的議價/節省,以及一些物業據點的關閉。因此我們對接下來會看到的一些下滑,以及由此帶來的效益,感覺非常好。

  • And we have very disciplined returns objective on the Private Bank, et cetera. And I would just add, like if you should remember the 500 basis points of positive operating leverage for the year and we delivered 700 basis points this quarter. So that still remains very much true for this. Yeah.

    另外,我們在私人銀行等業務上也有非常嚴謹的報酬目標。我也補充一下,你應該記得我們全年目標是 500 個基點的正向營運槓桿,而本季我們交出了 700 個基點。所以這一點仍然非常成立。是的。

  • Ken Houston - Analyst

    Ken Houston - Analyst

  • Thank you, guys.

    謝謝各位。

  • Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris McGratty, KBW.

    Chris McGratty,KBW。

  • Christopher McGratty - Equity Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks. Bruce, you expressed confidence getting into the the 16% to 18% range for the ROTCE by the end of next year. I guess, number one, what could make it perhaps a little sooner get into the range and maybe the factors that might push it out a little bit?

    謝謝。Bruce,你表達了信心,認為到明年年底 ROTCE 可以進入 16% 到 18% 的區間。我想第一個問題是:有哪些因素可能讓它更早進入這個區間?以及有哪些因素可能讓它稍微往後延?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think it's hard to pull it forward a whole lot. We have some of the time-based benefits of those legacy swaps running off, which is a driver of kind of moving higher in NII and overall kind of revenue. But if we got into kind of piece dividend from the resolution of the (inaudible) war. And then there's a lot of activity in the capital markets.

    是的。我認為要大幅提前其實很難。我們有一些與時間相關的效益,例如那些存量(legacy)利率交換合約到期退出,這會推動淨利息收入(NII)以及整體營收往上。但如果我們能從(聽不清)戰爭的解決中得到某種「和平紅利」,同時資本市場活動也變得非常活躍。

  • I think we're as well positioned as anyone certainly amongst our peers, maybe better positioned to really capture that upside if that happens. So I think that's one driver that can maybe hope to get us there a little faster.

    我認為我們的定位不比任何人差,至少在同業之中,我們的定位可能更好,能夠在那種情況發生時真正抓住上行空間。所以我認為那是一個可能讓我們更快達標的驅動因素。

  • And I'd say, in the Private Bank, they're on a steady as she goes by design kind of trajectory. If we did start to see more revenues, maybe we could force feed a little more investment there. And we talked a little bit about the potential for pull forward of RTB benefits if some of the new technologies kick in.

    另外我會說,在私人銀行方面,我們是刻意採取穩健、按部就班的軌跡。如果我們開始看到更多收入,也許我們可以在那裡加大一些投資力度。而且我們也稍微談到,如果一些新技術開始發揮作用,RTB 的效益可能有提前實現的潛力。

  • So there is a case to make that potentially in a perfect scenario, you can pull it in a little bit, but I'm not promising that. And I'm really just focused on making sure we hit that by kind of the end of '27. And then I guess the converse is true, too. If the kind of environment stays volatile and the war doesn't get resolved quickly and energy prices go up and the economy slows down a bit, there's possibilities that, that could extend a little bit. But a lot of this is actually baked in.

    所以可以說,在理想情境下,可能可以把時程稍微拉近一點,但我不做這樣的承諾。我真正專注的是確保我們大概在 27 年底前達成。然後我想反過來也成立。如果整體環境仍然波動、戰爭無法快速解決、能源價格上升、經濟放緩一些,那也有可能會讓時程稍微延長。但其中很多其實都已經反映在內了。

  • So to get kind of from 12 to 15 is really these time-based benefits and some of the trajectory we see on the NIM and then kind of getting all the way there is execution of kind of some of the rest of the initiatives, the normalization of credit cost back to the mid-30s. We had a 39 basis point this quarter. I think we're firmly on that trajectory, again, absent something happening in the economy. And then we'll just continue to buy back our stock fairly aggressively as well.

    所以從 12 到 15 的提升,主要來自這些時間推移帶來的效益,以及我們在淨利差(NIM)上看到的一些走勢;而要完全達到目標,則取決於其餘一些措施的執行,以及信貸成本回歸到 30 多個基點中段的正常化水準。我們本季是 39 個基點。我認為我們確實正穩步走在那條軌道上,當然前提是經濟沒有發生什麼狀況。另外,我們也會持續相當積極地回購自家股票。

  • Christopher McGratty - Equity Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Chiavarini, Jefferies.

    David Chiavarini,Jefferies。

  • David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst

    David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks for taking my question. So I wanted to ask about loan pricing, commercial loan growth has been increasing nicely across the industry. So I was curious about how loan spreads are holding up in a competitive environment.

    嗨。謝謝讓我提問。我想問一下貸款定價;整個產業的商業貸款成長都在不錯地加速。所以我很好奇,在競爭環境下,貸款利差的表現如何。

  • Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Aunoy Banerjee - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Let me start, David, and then I'll pass it on to Ted. As you saw that we had a diversified loan growth and even in the commercial bank, we had in the mid-corporate space, we were little bit on the subscription lines as well. And we expect, as you think about the spreads, like it definitely came down as the rates came down, but we are well within the pack.

    是的。David,我先回答,然後再交給 Ted 補充。如你所見,我們的貸款成長相當多元;即使在商業銀行這邊,在中型企業領域,我們也在訂閱授信(subscription lines)方面有一些布局。至於利差,你可以這樣看:利率下來時利差確實也會下來,但我們仍然大致處於同業區間之內。

  • And the one thing I would talk about loan growth is, and Ted mentioned this, this is not only just a credit relationships. It's a more holistic relationship. So we look at the returns of this loan on a holistic basis to think about what else are we getting, whether it's the deposit relationship or the business, other business activities, fees, et cetera, that we are getting. So there's a very disciplined process in Ted's business that we go through to ensure that we are just not looking at the spreads.

    另外我想談談貸款成長的一點,Ted 也提到過:這不只是單純的授信關係。而是一個更全面的關係。因此我們會以整體角度來看這筆貸款的回報,思考我們還能獲得什麼,例如存款關係或其他業務活動、手續費等。在 Ted 的業務中,我們有一套非常嚴謹的流程,確保我們不只是看利差。

  • Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

    Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

  • Just to build on what Aunoy said. Overall, in the markets in the beginning of the first quarter, we saw more on the institutional side. And on the bond side, we saw some tightening of spreads that obviously widen back out with what's going on in March. As we get specific to Citizens, we are now, we look at the relationship holistically. So we try to figure out when we make a loan, what are the ancillary business, and this was all part of our BSO that we really completed through the end of last year.

    補充 Aunoy 剛才說的。整體市場在第一季初,我們在機構端看到比較多的活動。在債券端,我們看到利差有些收斂,但隨著 3 月發生的事情,利差又明顯擴大。就 Citizens 而言,我們現在是以整體關係來看。所以當我們放款時,會評估可帶來哪些附帶業務;這也是我們 BSO 的一部分,而我們在去年底前已基本完成。

  • We now feel like we have a very good discipline in place that we do not stretch on loans where we do not get an overall suitable return for our customers. As such, we really haven't seen much of a decline in spreads in the last couple of, in the last quarter.

    我們現在覺得已建立非常好的紀律:對於無法為我們帶來整體上合適回報的客戶,我們不會在貸款條件上過度讓步。因此,我們在最近幾個——在上一季其實沒有看到利差有太多下滑。

  • David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst

    David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks for that. And then shifting over to private credit and NDFI. To what extent are you contemplating leaning in as other banks pull back? Or are you comfortable with your existing exposure?

    好的,謝謝說明。接著想轉到私募信貸與 NDFI。當其他銀行收縮時,你們在多大程度上會考慮加大投入?或者你們對目前的曝險水位感到滿意?

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I would say, it's Bruce, and I'll let Ted add color. But we've grown that, as I mentioned earlier, that book by very, in a very disciplined manner, call it, 5% a year, being very selective about who we want to bank and the type of vehicles that we bank and making sure we have the right structure. So I don't really see us veering off of that. That served us well to where we're positioned today.

    是的。我是 Bruce,我也會請 Ted 補充一些細節。但如我先前提到,我們以非常、非常有紀律的方式來成長那個投放組合,大概每年 5% 左右;我們會非常審慎地挑選想要往來的對象、往來的載體類型,並確保結構設計正確。所以我不太認為我們會偏離這個方向。這也讓我們在今天的位置上表現得很好。

  • And I think that's the strategy that we'll have going forward, even if some people step back and there's opportunities to do more we'll see. But our baseline assumption is that we kind of keep to that mid-single-digit growth rate. Ted?

    我想這也會是我們未來的策略;即使有些人退一步、出現更多機會,我們會再觀察。但我們的基準假設是維持在中個位數的成長率。Ted?

  • Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

    Theodore Swimmer - Head of Commercial Banking

  • Yeah. We're going to continue to support our customers. We look at these relationships, not just on the NDFI side, but on the private equity side, on the subscription side and then what their portfolio companies are doing. So, and if some of our customers are the winners and the survivors, we think that they're not survivors, but the winners and make acquisitions, maybe grow with them, sure, but we're not going to specifically grow NDFI. We're going to just continue to go with where our customers go.

    是的。我們會持續支持我們的客戶。我們看待這些關係,不只是在 NDFI 端,也包括私募股權端、訂閱授信端,以及他們投資組合公司在做什麼。所以,如果我們的一些客戶是贏家、能夠脫穎而出——我不是說只是存活者,而是贏家——並進行併購、我們可能會跟著他們一起成長,當然可以;但我們不會特別去刻意擴張 NDFI。我們會持續跟著客戶的走向前進。

  • David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst

    David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst

  • Very helpful. Thank you.

    非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Bruce Van Saun - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. All right. I think that gets to the end of the question queue. So I really appreciate your interest in citizens. Thanks for dialing in today.

    好的。好。我想這就到了提問隊列的尾聲。非常感謝各位對 Citizens 的關注。謝謝今天撥入參與。

  • Have a great day.

    祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

    今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與,現在可以斷線。