嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our business update conference call.

大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的業務更新電話會議。

I'm Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & Plc.

我是 Carnival Corporation & Plc 的總裁兼首席執行官 Arnold Donald。

Today, I'm joined telephonically by our Chairman, Micky Arison; as well as David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer; and Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

今天，我們的主席 Micky Arison 通過電話與我會面；以及我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein；和投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Thank you all for joining us this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

Now before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking.

現在在我開始之前，請注意，我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。

Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statements in today's press release.

因此，我必須向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警示性聲明。

It is hard to believe that it's been just 120 days since we voluntarily paused operations across our global fleet.

很難相信距離我們自願暫停全球機隊的運營僅 120 天。

In that relatively short time, we returned over 260,000 guest homes.

在那相對較短的時間內，我們返回了超過 260,000 間招待所。

We've already repatriated 77,000 crew members and will repatriate over 80,000 in total, hopefully before the month is over.

我們已經遣返了 77,000 名船員，並將總共遣返 80,000 多人，希望在本月結束之前。

We processed billions of dollars, euros and sterling of guest refunds and billions of future cruise credits in those currencies as well.

我們還處理了數十億美元、歐元和英鎊的客人退款以及以這些貨幣計價的數十億未來郵輪信用。

We've moved 53 ships into full pause status, and with the remainder expected to be in a similar position within the next month.

我們已將 53 艘船移至完全暫停狀態，其餘的預計將在下個月處於類似位置。

We've reached agreements for the disposition of 9 vessels while negotiating the delay in delivery of 16 ships on order.

我們已經就9艘船舶的處置達成協議，同時就16艘訂單船舶的延遲交付進行談判。

We secured over $10 billion, $10 billion in new capital while working to extend debt maturity and secure covenant waivers with over 20 lenders and over 40 different agreements.

我們獲得了超過 100 億美元和 100 億美元的新資本，同時努力延長債務期限，並與 20 多家貸方和 40 多項不同的協議簽訂契約豁免。

We've engaged with medical experts and scientists around the world to inform our development of return-to-cruise protocols.

我們與世界各地的醫學專家和科學家合作，為我們制定返回巡航協議提供信息。

And we are now preparing for the imminent return to cruising in Germany.

我們現在正在為即將重返德國的巡航做準備。

So we've come full circle from entering a voluntary pause to planning a staggered resumption.

因此，我們從進入自願暫停到計劃交錯恢復，已經完成了一個完整的循環。

And I couldn't be more proud of how collectively our team has handled this.

我為我們的團隊如何集體處理這件事感到無比自豪。

We looked after our guests, we looked after each other and the more than 700 places we go each year.

我們照顧我們的客人，我們照顧彼此以及我們每年去的 700 多個地方。

We've honored what we stand for as a company, and we are well positioned for our existing shareholders to still experience attractive returns over time.

我們尊重我們作為一家公司所代表的東西，並且我們為現有股東做好了充分的準備，隨著時間的推移仍能獲得可觀的回報。

We will emerge a leaner, more efficient company.

我們將成為一家更精簡、更高效的公司。

So thanks.

那謝謝啦。

Thanks to our crew, who continue to exceed guest expectations through challenging circumstances while taking care of each other, taking care of our ships and protecting the environment.

感謝我們的船員，他們在充滿挑戰的環境中繼續超越客人的期望，同時互相照顧、照顧我們的船隻和保護環境。

Thanks to our shoreside team members for working 24/7 to repatriate first our guests then our crew, all while handling incredible, unprecedented huge volumes of calls and inquiries from guests, ports, vendors, travel professionals and other partners, and while coordinating with the myriad of government authorities and agencies globally, all in the context of a constantly changing and evolving situation.

感謝我們的岸邊團隊成員 24/7 全天候工作，首先遣返我們的客人，然後遣返我們的船員，同時處理來自客人、港口、供應商、旅行專業人士和其他合作夥伴的令人難以置信的、前所未有的大量電話和詢問，同時與全球無數政府當局和機構，所有這些都是在不斷變化和演變的情況下進行的。

Thanks to our travel partners for their support.

感謝我們的旅行夥伴的支持。

And thanks to our guests for the countless number of heartfelt outreaches expressing support and concerns for our crew, our shoreside personnel and the brands they love.

感謝我們的客人無數次發自內心地表達對我們的船員、岸上人員和他們喜愛的品牌的支持和關注。

Thanks to those investors who have expressed their confidence by staying with us.

感謝那些與我們在一起表達信心的投資者。

And thanks to those who have expressed their confidence by becoming new investors.

感謝那些通過成為新投資者來表達信心的人。

Look, these are truly unprecedented times for our industry.

看，這對我們的行業來說確實是前所未有的時代。

They are clearly a trying time for all of travel and tourism, and they are extremely challenging times for the world at large.

對於所有旅行和旅遊業來說，這顯然是一個艱難的時期，對於整個世界來說，它們都是極具挑戰性的時期。

I extend my personal, deepest sympathy to those around the globe who have suffered directly themselves individually or whose loved ones have suffered with the virus.

我向全球那些直接遭受個人痛苦或親人感染病毒的人表示我個人最深切的同情。

For our company, it has been not only challenging, but frankly, at times, it has been painful.

對於我們公司來說，這不僅充滿挑戰，而且坦率地說，有時也很痛苦。

We are aware that so many people depend on us for their livelihood and well-being, not only our own employees but those and many other businesses around the world, both small and large.

我們知道，很多人的生計和福祉都依賴我們，不僅是我們自己的員工，還有世界各地的這些企業和許多其他企業，無論大小。

And we've been on a journey since COVID began to manifest, a journey we've aggressively managed throughout.

自從 COVID 開始顯現以來，我們一直在一段旅程中，我們一直在積極地管理這段旅程。

Our highest responsibility, our highest responsibility and therefore our top priorities are always compliance, environmental protection and the health, safety and well-being of our guests, the communities we touch and our Carnival family, our team members shipboard and shore side.

我們的最高責任，我們的最高責任，因此我們的首要任務始終是合規、環境保護以及我們的客人、我們接觸的社區和我們的嘉年華家庭、我們的團隊成員在船上和岸邊的健康、安全和福祉。

We initiated a voluntary pause in operations in the early days of this global pandemic, including being the first to halt sailings here in the U.S., an action that was taken before shelter in place was implemented in the U.S. and before the CDC no-sail order was issued.

在這場全球大流行的初期，我們開始自願暫停運營，包括率先在美國暫停航行，這是在美國實施避難所之前和 CDC 禁航令之前採取的行動發出。

We recently extended our pause in the U.S. through late September, which, of course, is well beyond the time frame of the current CDC no-sail order expiring July 24.

我們最近將在美國的暫停時間延長至 9 月下旬，當然，這遠遠超出了 7 月 24 日到期的當前 CDC 禁航令的時間範圍。

Again, our teams worked tirelessly to return over 260,000 guests safely home.

再次，我們的團隊孜孜不倦地工作，讓超過 260,000 名客人安全回家。

And then they focused on repatriating our more than 80,000 shipboard team members to their homes in over 130 different countries.

然後他們專注於將我們的 80,000 多名船上團隊成員遣返他們在 130 多個不同國家的家中。

This was a daunting task, given the limited availability of air, the real barrier of closed borders and a fluid, constantly changing context that made planning and even execution extremely challenging.

這是一項艱鉅的任務，因為有限的空氣供應、封閉邊界的真正障礙以及不斷變化的環境，使得規劃甚至執行都極具挑戰性。

In the end, we got the job done through chartering planes, and in many cases, using our own vessels to transport our team safely home.

最後，我們通過包機完成了工作，在許多情況下，我們使用自己的船隻將我們的團隊安全地運送回家。

So far, we sailed 50 ships, that's nearly half our fleet, and over 400,000 nautical miles in this repatriation process.

到目前為止，我們航行了 50 艘船，幾乎是我們船隊的一半，並且在這個遣返過程中航行了超過 40 萬海裡。

We also quickly focused on securing sufficient capital to provide a financial runway to withstand an extended pause.

我們還迅速專注於確保足夠的資金，以提供財務跑道以承受長時間的停頓。

That effort included cash preservation, motivating our guests around deposit retention and the wind down of our fleet.

這項工作包括現金保全、激勵我們的客人保留存款和減少我們的船隊。

Now David and our finance team, with support from our legal team, worked nonstop to secure funding to sustain our path forward in a prolonged cost.

現在，大衛和我們的財務團隊在我們的法律團隊的支持下，不間斷地工作以確保資金以維持我們在長期成本中前進的道路。

We were able to access the capital markets in the early days and, in a meaningful way, initially raising $6.6 billion of capital and doing so at a time when the capital markets were still closed to many.

我們能夠在早期進入資本市場，並且以一種有意義的方式，最初籌集了 66 億美元的資金，並且在資本市場仍然對許多人關閉的時候這樣做。

And while it was certainly financially painful for a company that had always managed to an investment-grade credit rating, bearing the cost of the initial raise was prudent to ensure our long term viability.

儘管對於一家一直設法獲得投資級信用評級的公司來說，這在財務上無疑是痛苦的，但為了確保我們的長期生存能力，承擔最初的加薪成本是謹慎的做法。

Now because of our strong balance sheet, we were able to raise the majority of that $6.6 billion of capital, along with an additional $2.8 billion on a secured basis, minimizing dilution.

現在，由於我們強大的資產負債表，我們能夠籌集到這 66 億美元資本中的大部分，以及有擔保的額外 28 億美元，從而最大限度地減少稀釋。

Historically, as you know, we've managed our strong balance sheet and an investment-grade credit rating.

如您所知，從歷史上看，我們管理著強大的資產負債表和投資級信用評級。

In the current environment, our national brands have been an additional advantage, supplementing our access to liquidity across a number of countries at attractive rates.

在當前環境下，我們的民族品牌是一個額外的優勢，補充了我們以有吸引力的價格在多個國家獲得流動性的機會。

Our success in maintaining a strong balance sheet and the strength of the national brands has been a differentiator, providing a softer landing for our company and our shareholders.

我們成功地保持了強勁的資產負債表和民族品牌的實力，這是一個差異化因素，為我們的公司和我們的股東提供了一個更軟著陸。

In fact, our overall blended interest rate is just 5% despite the recent expansion of debt.

事實上，儘管最近債務增加，我們的整體混合利率僅為 5%。

And we still retain meaningful flexibility going forward to manage further uncertainty.

我們仍然保留有意義的靈活性，以應對進一步的不確定性。

Importantly, we have capacity to issue additional debt.

重要的是，我們有能力發行額外的債務。

Beyond that, we are also evaluating the potential to monetize noncore assets to provide additional liquidity or potentially reduce our debt burden over time.

除此之外，我們還在評估將非核心資產貨幣化的潛力，以提供額外的流動性或隨著時間的推移可能減輕我們的債務負擔。

We are confident that we are prepared for a wide range of scenarios for the next 12 months.

我們有信心為未來 12 個月的各種情況做好準備。

Additional cash conservation efforts, combined with future liquidity measures, will enable us to sustain ourselves beyond 12 months into late next year, even in a 0 revenue scenario.

額外的現金保護工作，再加上未來的流動性措施，即使在收入為零的情況下，我們也能夠在 12 個月後維持到明年年底。

Concerning cash conservation, our workforce reductions, while painful, where necessary to make it through to the other side of the impact of this global pandemic.

關於現金節約，我們的勞動力減少雖然很痛苦，但在必要的情況下，以度過這場全球大流行的影響的另一面。

In the face of no meaningful revenue, we were able to forestall the financial impact on our employees, deferring employee actions beyond the time frame of many others during that period without compromising the interest of our shareholders, honoring our fiscal responsibilities.

面對沒有有意義的收入，我們能夠預防對員工的財務影響，在此期間將員工的行動推遲到許多其他人的時間範圍之外，同時不損害我們股東的利益，履行我們的財務責任。

We also, of course, significantly reduced nonessential capital expenditures in excess of $2 billion, and significantly reduced marketing costs as well.

當然，我們還顯著減少了超過 20 億美元的非必要資本支出，並顯著降低了營銷成本。

And while we continue to expect new ships to provide greater cash generation and higher returns over time once we return to sailing, we have also worked to defer newbuild CapEx given the near term environment.

雖然我們繼續期望新船在我們恢復航行後隨著時間的推移提供更多的現金產生和更高的回報，但鑑於近期環境，我們也努力推遲新建的資本支出。

In fact, we expect to reduce ship deliveries through the end of fiscal 2021 from 9, as originally planned, down to 5, 2 this fiscal year and 3 next, deferring over $3 billion of capital expenditures into fiscal 2022 and beyond.

事實上，我們預計到 2021 財年末的船舶交付量將從最初計劃的 9 艘減少到本財年的 5 艘、2 艘和下一個財年的 3 艘，從而將超過 30 億美元的資本支出推遲到 2022 財年及以後。

To reduce our cash burn and to have a more efficient fleet once we do resume cruising, we have aggressively shed less-efficient ships.

為了減少我們的現金消耗並在我們恢復巡航後擁有一支更高效的船隊，我們積極地淘汰了效率較低的船隻。

A total of 13 ships are expected to leave the fleet, representing a nearly 9% reduction in our current capacity.

預計共有 13 艘船離開船隊，相當於我們目前的運力減少了近 9%。

We are also reorganizing the company to emerge stronger, leaner and more efficient.

我們還在重組公司，以變得更強大、更精簡、更高效。

Even when we return to full-scale operations, we don't expect to return to the same staffing requirements as we are addressing our work streams to work in a more efficient manner.

即使我們恢復全面運營，我們也不希望恢復到與我們正在解決我們的工作流以更有效的方式工作相同的人員配置要求。

At the same time, we are focused on developing new and enhanced protocols.

同時，我們專注於開發新的和增強的協議。

Now we've dealt with many types of viruses in the past.

現在我們過去處理過許多類型的病毒。

Historically, we've had effective protocols in place onboard our ships, including screening measures, medical centers and sanitation procedures, which prevent and reduce the spread once brought on board from land.

從歷史上看，我們在船上製定了有效的協議，包括篩查措施、醫療中心和衛生程序，這些措施可以防止和減少從陸地上船後的傳播。

During this pandemic, we had less than our market share of incidents.

在這次大流行期間，我們發生的事件少於我們的市場份額。

Again, we had less than our market share of incidents.

同樣，我們的事件發生率低於我們的市場份額。

However, as is often the case being the largest in the industry, we had a disproportionate amount of media attention.

然而，作為業內最大的案例，我們經常受到媒體的關注。

Now having said that, as evidenced by the global shutdown, this virus is unique and the world is discovering together how to most effectively address it.

話雖如此，正如全球封鎖所證明的那樣，這種病毒是獨一無二的，全世界正在共同發現如何最有效地應對它。

We're working diligently to determine what enhancements to our existing protocols will best serve the interest of public health.

我們正在努力確定對我們現有協議的哪些改進將最符合公眾健康的利益。

Now our protocols are being informed by global learnings.

現在，我們的協議正受到全球學習的影響。

And to that end, we are engaged with external advisers, which include world-renowned epidemiologists and other medical experts and scientists, utilizing their collective inputs.

為此，我們與包括世界知名流行病學家和其他醫學專家和科學家在內的外部顧問合作，利用他們的集體投入。

Once people are gathering again, which is clearly happening on a country-by-country basis, society will determine the risk it is willing to accept going forward.

一旦人們再次聚集，這顯然是逐個國家發生的，社會將決定它願意接受的未來風險。

And we're working so that our guests will not incur any greater risk versus engaging in similar experiences on land.

我們正在努力使我們的客人不會比在陸地上參與類似體驗而承擔更大的風險。

And of course, we're working to achieve less risk and exposure to similar shoreside activities as we have often achieved in the past with prior health risks, such as, for example, norovirus.

當然，我們正在努力降低風險和接觸類似的岸邊活動，就像我們過去經常在先前的健康風險中實現的那樣，例如諾如病毒。

But to be clear, we will fail when we -- we will sail when we feel we will honor our commitment to operate in the best interest of guests.

但需要明確的是，當我們感到我們將履行我們為客人的最大利益而經營的承諾時，我們將失敗。

In that regard, we're in active discussions around the world with appropriate authorities and agencies.

在這方面，我們正在與世界各地的有關當局和機構進行積極討論。

In addition to Germany, Italy seems to be closest to resuming cruises at this time.

除了德國，此時意大利似乎最接近恢復巡航。

And we're in very active dialogue with them, as well as others, concerning procedures based on the best available science to specifically address the risks associated with COVID-19.

我們正在與他們以及其他人進行非常積極的對話，討論基於現有最佳科學的程序，以專門解決與 COVID-19 相關的風險。

Upon resuming service, we are well positioned to optimize the latent pent-up demand by our leading brands around the world.

恢復服務後，我們有能力優化我們全球領先品牌潛在的被壓抑的需求。

Having national brands as a portion of our portfolio at this moment, as I've already mentioned, is clearly an asset.

正如我已經提到的，目前將民族品牌作為我們投資組合的一部分顯然是一種資產。

As nations reintroduce social gathering, including cruise, they are most likely, initially, to restrict reactivations to their own residents exclusively.

隨著各國重新引入包括郵輪在內的社交聚會，它們最初很可能將重新激活僅限於本國居民。

With brands like AIDA, that is roughly 95% German sourced; P&O U.K., which is 98% British sourced; Costa Europe, which is nearly 80% Continental European source; P&O Australia, which is more than 99% Australian and New Zealand sourced; and Carnival Cruise Line, which is 92% U.S. sourced, we are very well positioned.

對於像 AIDA 這樣的品牌，大約 95% 來自德國； P&O U.K.，98% 來自英國； Costa Europe，近 80% 來自歐洲大陸； P&O Australia，99% 以上來自澳大利亞和新西蘭；嘉年華郵輪公司 92% 來自美國，我們處於非常有利的位置。

Additionally, the fact that these brands are characterized by ready access with drive to markets and a prevalence of shorter duration cruises, strengthens the possibility for success in today's environment.

此外，這些品牌的特點是可以隨時進入市場，並且流行較短的遊輪，這增強了在當今環境中取得成功的可能性。

Clearly, cruise will not come back all at once.

顯然，巡航不會一下子就回來。

As we are demonstrating with AIDA, we intend to resume operations with a small percentage of the fleet, which inherently will make us less reliant on new-to-cruise in the early days.

正如我們向 AIDA 展示的那樣，我們打算恢復一小部分船隊的運營，這本質上將使我們在早期減少對新巡航的依賴。

Now with nearly 2/3 of our guests globally, that's almost 8 million guests, each year repeat cruisers, an active database of nearly 40 million and frequency to repeat amongst cruises every 2-plus years on average, we expect demand to be more than adequate to fill ships in a staggered restart.

現在全球有近 2/3 的客人，即近 800 萬客人，每年重複遊輪，近 4000 萬的活躍數據庫和平均每 2 年以上重複遊輪的頻率，我們預計需求將超過足以在交錯重啟時填滿船隻。

Again, we expect demand to be more than adequate to fill ships in a staggered restart.

同樣，我們預計需求將足以在交錯重啟中填滿船舶。

Our overriding financial objective going forward is to maximize cash generation.

我們未來的首要財務目標是最大限度地產生現金。

At the same time, we're focused on staggering the reintroduction of capacity, which will help to manage yields.

與此同時，我們專注於錯開產能的重新引入，這將有助於管理產量。

Now this is even more relevant since, historically, we've had only 2 levers to pull in the down-cycle, occupancy and rate.

現在這更重要，因為從歷史上看，我們只有兩個槓桿來拉動下行週期、入住率和房價。

In this environment, we will have a third capacity.

在這種環境下，我們將擁有第三種能力。

Capacity will be the third real-time demand lever we can leverage to produce the best short- and long-term outcomes.

產能將是我們可以用來產生最佳短期和長期結果的第三個實時需求槓桿。

Our long-term projects are especially bright given we've moderated our overall capacity.

鑑於我們已經降低了整體產能，我們的長期項目尤其光明。

We shed less-efficient vessels and lowered our overall cost base.

我們淘汰了效率較低的船隻並降低了我們的整體成本基礎。

We've reduced near-term capacity.

我們減少了近期產能。

And going forward, we introduce newer, far more efficient vessels over time, in line with demand generation.

展望未來，隨著時間的推移，我們會根據需求推出更新、效率更高的船舶。

Based on the actions we've taken to date, our fleet will not return to 2020 second quarter capacity levels until 2022 at the earliest and will be inherently more efficient with a roughly 10% larger average berth size and reduced average age.

根據我們迄今為止採取的行動，我們的船隊最早要到 2022 年才能恢復到 2020 年第二季度的運力水平，並且在平均泊位面積增加約 10% 和平均船齡減少的情況下，本質上將更加高效。

In summary, we have appropriately brought down our operating costs by over $7 billion on an annualized basis, and we've reduced capital expenditures by more than $5 billion over the next 18 months.

總而言之，我們每年適當地降低了超過 70 億美元的運營成本，並且我們在未來 18 個月內減少了超過 50 億美元的資本支出。

We transitioned the fleet into a prolonged pause, and we rightsized our shoreside operations and we'll continue to do so.

我們將船隊轉變為長時間的停頓，我們調整了岸上業務的規模，我們將繼續這樣做。

We are aggressively shedding assets while actively deferring new ship deliveries.

我們在積極推遲新船交付的同時積極剝離資產。

We have secured over $10 billion of additional liquidity to withstand another full year in a 0 revenue scenario.

我們已經獲得了超過 100 億美元的額外流動性，以在收入為零的情況下再過一整年。

We are working aggressively on protocols with Germany set to resume cruising.

我們正在積極制定協議，德國將恢復巡航。

We will emerge a leaner, more efficient company to optimize cash generation, pay down debt and position us to return to a strong investment-grade credit rating overtime.

我們將成為一家更精簡、更高效的公司，以優化現金產生、償還債務並使我們能夠加班恢復到強大的投資級信用評級。

We're working hard to resume guest operations, and we are working hard to ensure when we do resume guest operations, we do so in a way that serves the best interest of public health.

我們正在努力恢復客人的運營，並且我們正在努力確保當我們恢復客人的運營時，我們這樣做的方式符合公眾健康的最大利益。

In time, we expect to continue to deliver extraordinary vacation experiences to our guests, and over time, strong returns to our shareholders.

隨著時間的推移，我們希望繼續為我們的客人提供非凡的假期體驗，並隨著時間的推移為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Arnold.

謝謝你，阿諾德。

As Arnold said, it is hard to believe it has been just 120 days since we paused our guest cruise operations across the globe.

正如阿諾德所說，很難相信距離我們在全球範圍內暫停客輪運營僅 120 天。

We quickly recognized the situation and took swift action to protect our company and all of its stakeholders.

我們很快意識到了這種情況，並迅速採取行動保護我們公司及其所有利益相關者。

Our financial action plan has had 2 main paths: cash preservation by reducing our monthly cash burn rate and improving our overall liquidity position.

我們的財務行動計劃有兩條主要途徑：通過降低我們的每月現金消耗率和改善我們的整體流動性狀況來保存現金。

I'll start today with an update on our full year 2021 booking trends, then I'll provide a summary of our reduced monthly average cash burn rate for the second half of 2020 and finish up with some insights into our improved liquidity position.

我將從今天開始介紹我們 2021 年全年預訂趨勢的最新情況，然後我將總結我們在 2020 年下半年降低的月平均現金消耗率，最後對我們改善的流動性狀況提出一些見解。

Turning to our 2021 booking trends.

談談我們 2021 年的預訂趨勢。

At this point in time, our cumulative advanced bookings for the full year 2021 remain within historical ranges at prices that are down in the low- to mid-single-digit range, including the negative yield impact of FCCs and onboard credit supplies.

目前，我們 2021 年全年的累計提前預訂仍處於歷史範圍內，價格處於中低個位數範圍內，包括 FCC 和船上信貸供應的負面收益率影響。

Our booked position is encouraging given that we have essentially suspended all advertising and promotional activity.

鑑於我們基本上暫停了所有廣告和促銷活動，我們的預訂位置令人鼓舞。

It is particularly reassuring to see that approximately 45% of the 2021 booked position are guests that are new to brand, with the remaining 55% of guests being brand loyalist, which is just a little higher than the norm.

尤其令人欣慰的是，2021 年預訂的職位中約有 45% 是新加入品牌的客人，其餘 55% 的客人是品牌忠誠者，這僅略高於正常水平。

And it's also promising to see that 55% of the 2021 booking volume during the last 2 months were new bookings, with the remainder being FCCs rebookings.

而且還有望看到過去 2 個月 2021 年預訂量的 55% 是新預訂，其餘的是 FCC 的重新預訂。

Now let's look at our monthly average cash burn rate.

現在讓我們看看我們每月的平均現金消耗率。

During the pause in our guest operations, our monthly average cash burn rate for the second half of 2020 is estimated to be $650 million per month.

在我們的客戶業務暫停期間，我們 2020 年下半年的月平均現金消耗率估計為每月 6.5 億美元。

If the pause in guest operations were to continue into 2021, we believe that there are opportunities to further lower the monthly rate.

如果客戶運營的暫停持續到 2021 年，我們認為有機會進一步降低月費率。

A monthly cash burn rate includes 4 items.

每月現金消耗率包括 4 項。

First, $250 million per month of ongoing ship operating and administrative expenses.

首先，每月 2.5 億美元的持續船舶運營和管理費用。

This monthly estimate is much lower than the second quarter actuals, which included returning guests to their homes and a significant portion of the cost of shipboard team member repatriation.

這個月度估計值遠低於第二季度的實際值，其中包括讓客人返回家園以及船上團隊成員遣返費用的很大一部分。

In addition, the second half monthly estimate benefits from the fact that we expect substantially all of our ships to reach their full pause status during the third quarter.

此外，下半年的月度估計受益於我們預計我們幾乎所有的船舶將在第三季度達到完全暫停狀態。

Furthermore, the second half will be lower than the second quarter because of the combination of layoffs, furloughs, reduced work weeks and salary reductions generally implemented late in the second quarter or early in the third quarter across the company.

此外，由於裁員、休假、工作週數減少以及公司普遍在第二季度末或第三季度初實施的減薪措施，下半年將低於第二季度。

Finally, the monthly estimate will be further reduced as additional ships leave our fleet.

最後，隨著更多船隻離開我們的船隊，月度估算值將進一步降低。

Second, interest expense is expected to be approximately $85 million per month.

其次，利息支出預計約為每月 8500 萬美元。

Third, capital expenditures are forecasted to be approximately $115 million per month net of export credit financings, and this includes an expectation of 2 ship deliveries and the receipt of other capital commitments contracted for prior to the pause in our guest operations.

第三，資本支出預計在扣除出口信貸融資後每月約為 1.15 億美元，其中包括預計交付 2 艘船舶以及收到在我們的客戶業務暫停之前簽訂的其他資本承諾。

The fourth and final component is an unusually high item due to the timing of guest refund payments flowing through accounts payable.

第四個也是最後一個組成部分是一個異常高的項目，因為客人退款付款流經應付賬款的時間。

It is expected to be approximately $200 million per month.

預計每月約為 2 億美元。

In fact, the increase in accounts payable has already completely reversed itself in the month of June.

事實上，應付賬款的增加在6月份已經完全逆轉。

At this point, I would like to apologize to those guests who had to wait for their refunds.

在這一點上，我想向那些不得不等待退款的客人道歉。

We had to address several hurdles to normal business operations, which included an unprecedented number of guests impacted by canceled voyages, a shift to work at home for call center employees and need to reprogram systems to handle the volume, and the need to develop new procedures to ensure accurate processing for our guests.

我們必須解決正常業務運營的幾個障礙，其中包括受取消航次影響的客人數量空前，呼叫中心員工轉為在家工作，需要重新編程系統以處理數量，以及開發新程序的需要以確保為我們的客人提供準確的處理。

We have worked very hard at all of our brands around the globe to expedite our refund processing, and with limited exceptions, we are back to pre-COVID service levels.

我們在全球所有品牌都非常努力，以加快我們的退款處理，除少數例外情況外，我們已恢復到 COVID 之前的服務水平。

Now I'll provide some insight on our overall liquidity position.

現在，我將對我們的整體流動性狀況提供一些見解。

Our available liquidity at the end of the second quarter was $7.6 billion, which includes $6.9 billion of cash and $700 million from the government commercial paper program we qualified for in the U.K. We added to that liquidity position by completing the offering of a first priority senior secured term loan on June 30, with net proceeds of approximately $2.6 billion.

我們在第二季度末的可用流動性為 76 億美元，其中包括 69 億美元的現金和來自我們在英國有資格獲得的政府商業票據計劃的 7 億美元。我們通過完成優先級優先股的發行增加了流動性頭寸6 月 30 日獲得定期貸款，淨收益約為 26 億美元。

Looking ahead, our European brands will continue to work on government-backed financing in both Germany and Italy that we hope to complete over the coming months.

展望未來，我們的歐洲品牌將繼續在德國和意大利開展政府支持的融資，我們希望在未來幾個月內完成。

Looking beyond that, we will continue to work on extending 2021 maturities.

除此之外，我們將繼續努力延長 2021 年的期限。

In addition, over time, we will opportunistically look to further enhance our liquidity position.

此外，隨著時間的推移，我們將機會主義地尋求進一步提高我們的流動性狀況。

In recent weeks, our liquidity focus has begun to change.

最近幾週，我們的流動性重點開始發生變化。

Back in March and April, our thought process was to obtain enough liquidity to sustain the company during the pause in our guest operations and get to the other side.

早在 3 月和 4 月，我們的思考過程是獲得足夠的流動性，以在我們的客戶業務暫停期間維持公司並到達另一邊。

Now that AIDA announced the resumption of guest cruise operations, we are looking at a variety of financial models where we resume guest operations in a phased manner, with specific brands and ships returning to service over time to provide our guests with enjoyable vacation experiences and our company with positive cash flow and additional liquidity.

現在 AIDA 宣布恢復客輪運營，我們正在研究多種財務模式，分階段恢復客輪運營，特定品牌和船舶隨著時間的推移恢復服務，為我們的客人提供愉快的假期體驗和我們的擁有正現金流和額外流動性的公司。

So with plenty of available liquidity in hand to withstand the impact of no sailings or no revenues well into 2021, our focus has now shifted to projecting the additional liquidity that the resumption of our guest operations will provide.

因此，由於手頭有大量可用的流動性來抵禦 2021 年沒有航行或沒有收入的影響，我們現在的重點已經轉移到預測恢復我們的客戶運營將提供的額外流動性。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Arnold.

現在我將把電話轉回給阿諾德。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Operator, please open the line now for questions.

接線員，請立即打開電話以提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So I guess a bigger picture question here.

所以我想這裡有一個更大的問題。

I guess if we look out a couple of years down the road, whenever the business gets back to a so-called normal operating level, how do you think about the free cash flow potential of the business moving forward given the ongoing CapEx needs plus the much higher debt levels you guys will be carrying moving forward?

我想如果我們展望未來幾年，每當業務恢復到所謂的正常運營水平時，鑑於持續的資本支出需求加上你們將繼續承擔更高的債務水平嗎？

And can you help us think about the excess free cash flow potential of the business and what it looks like down the road and maybe the path to get back to investment grade?

您能否幫助我們考慮一下該業務的超額自由現金流潛力，以及未來的情況以及恢復投資級別的路徑？

Good morning, Steve, and thanks for your question.

早上好，史蒂夫，感謝您的提問。

What I'm going to do is kind of play quarterback because we're all in different locations, even though we're all on the phone together.

我要做的是扮演四分衛的角色，因為我們都在不同的地方，即使我們都在一起打電話。

And I'll just refer the questions as they come up.

我會在問題出現時提及它們。

So David, you might want to go ahead and address the cash flow.

所以大衛，你可能想繼續解決現金流問題。

Sure.

當然。

So Steve, our business has tremendous cash flow generation potential, as you know.

所以史蒂夫，如你所知，我們的業務具有巨大的現金流產生潛力。

I mean, in 2019, we generated $5.5 billion of cash flow.

我的意思是，在 2019 年，我們產生了 55 億美元的現金流。

And one of the things that Arnold mentioned was the fact that we were -- had some ship deliveries delayed.

Arnold 提到的一件事是我們 - 一些船舶交付延遲。

And so over time, when you start looking at the next few years, our ship deliveries have been evened out.

因此，隨著時間的推移，當您開始展望未來幾年時，我們的船舶交付已經趨於平衡。

You're talk -- we talked 2 this year, 3 next year, 3 the year after.

你在說話——我們今年談了 2 次，明年談了 3 次，後年談了 3 次。

And so with 2 to 3 ships delivery per year -- and by the way, I'm -- when I'm doing this, I'm thinking about the fact that there are a couple of ships delivered in the last few weeks of the year and I'm sort of counting them in next year's delivery.

因此，每年有 2 到 3 艘船交付——順便說一下，我是——當我這樣做時，我正在考慮在過去幾週交付了幾艘船的事實那一年，我把它們算在明年的交付中。

So with 2 to 3 ships a year over time and significant cash flow generation, we do -- we should have excess cash flow that can go to pay down the debt.

因此，隨著時間的推移，每年有 2 到 3 艘船並產生大量現金流，我們確實這樣做了——我們應該有多餘的現金流來償還債務。

And it may take a number of years, but as Arnold said, our target is to get back to investment-grade credit rating.

這可能需要數年時間，但正如阿諾德所說，我們的目標是恢復投資級信用評級。

Okay.

好的。

Got you.

得到你。

And then second question would be around the booking patterns for next year.

然後第二個問題是關於明年的預訂模式。

And I don't know if you can do this, but maybe if you could break those bookings down a little bit.

我不知道你能不能做到這一點，但也許你能把這些預訂減少一點。

And I guess what I'm trying to get here is, are people booking across all brands?

而且我想我想要到達這裡的是，人們是否預訂了所有品牌？

Any insight there, I think, could be pretty helpful.

我認為，那裡的任何見解都可能會很有幫助。

And obviously, some of your brands encountered significant negative press earlier in the year.

顯然，您的一些品牌在今年早些時候遇到了重大的負面新聞。

Just for example, like Princess.

舉個例子，比如公主。

I'm just trying to figure out if a brand like that is getting -- is booked as well as the rest of your fleet.

我只是想弄清楚這樣的品牌是否與您的其他車隊一樣被預訂了。

And hopefully, that makes sense.

希望這是有道理的。

Well, I'll start, and then I'll let David give more detail on the volume.

好吧，我先開始，然後讓大衛詳細介紹這本書。

First of all, we're very encouraged by the booking patterns we see right now.

首先，我們對我們現在看到的預訂模式感到非常鼓舞。

I mean very encouraged.

我的意思是非常鼓勵。

We have not only, obviously, a number of future cruise credits where people had their itineraries canceled, but they chose instead of a cash refund, to book with us again.

顯然，我們不僅有許多未來的郵輪積分，人們取消了他們的行程，而且他們選擇再次與我們預訂而不是現金退款。

But we have substantial new bookings and we even have new-to-cruise bookings, which, given the current state of the environment in the world, is really a good testament to how strong a vacation experience and value cruising really is.

但是我們有大量的新預訂，甚至還有新的遊輪預訂，考慮到當前世界環境狀況，這確實很好地證明了假期體驗和遊輪價值的強大程度。

And then even with AIDA, we had 1 day so far as we prepare for an August resumption.

然後即使有了 AIDA，我們也有 1 天的時間來準備 8 月的恢復。

And the bookings in that 1 day, we got over 1,000 bookings taking up a significant portion of the first sailing on a very short notice period.

在那一天的預訂中，我們收到了超過 1,000 份預訂，在很短的通知期內佔據了第一次航行的很大一部分。

So there's a lot of pent-up demand.

所以有很多被壓抑的需求。

Your referenced to Princess, and particularly Princess, actually at this point in time, is trending with all the other brands in the industry and not disproportionately.

你提到的公主，特別是公主，實際上在這個時間點，與業內所有其他品牌一起流行，而且不成比例。

So in terms of consumer preference or attitude.

所以就消費者的偏好或態度而言。

And none of the brands in the industry have reached the trough that was reached back in 2012, 2013 when there was a plethora of incidents that made the media with the industry, a number of which were related to voyages in some of our brands.

行業中的品牌都沒有達到2012年、2013年的低谷，當時有太多的事件讓媒體對行業產生了誤解，其中一些事件與我們一些品牌的航行有關。

And so none of the brands in the industry, none of ours or others, have gone to the low levels that we experienced at that time.

因此，行業中的品牌，無論是我們的品牌還是其他品牌，都沒有達到我們當時所經歷的低水平。

So the trough in this period has been higher than the trough in that period.

所以這個時期的低谷一直高於那個時期的低谷。

So there's a lot of pent-up demand, a lot of latent demand.

所以有很多被壓抑的需求，很多潛在的需求。

That doesn't mean that we don't have work to do.

這並不意味著我們沒有工作要做。

Once we start cruising with much larger volumes of capacity to attract new-to-cruise, of course, we're going to have work to do.

一旦我們以更大的容量開始巡航以吸引新的巡航，當然，我們將有工作要做。

But right now, the brands are strong, the bookings are encouraging.

但現在，品牌很強大，預訂量令人鼓舞。

And with the staggered start we're going to have to resumption of cruising, there should be plenty of pent-up latent demand with previous cruise course to fill the ships.

隨著錯開開始，我們將不得不恢復巡航，之前的巡航路線應該有大量被壓抑的潛在需求來填補船隻。

But David, you might want to add a little additional color.

但是大衛，你可能想要添加一些額外的顏色。

Yes.

是的。

The only additional color, in looking across the brands, which you were trying to get at, the only things that I would comment on is that probably AIDA and Costa Europe are probably a little bit ahead of some of the other brands on a relative basis, but that probably has a lot to do with the current situation in Europe and the potential resumption of cruising.

唯一的額外顏色，在查看您試圖了解的品牌時，我唯一要評論的是，AIDA 和 Costa Europe 可能在相對基礎上領先於其他一些品牌，但這可能與歐洲目前的局勢以及可能恢復巡航有很大關係。

I mean we've already announced it in Germany.

我的意思是我們已經在德國宣布了它。

And as Arnold had mentioned, we're close in Italy.

正如阿諾德所說，我們在意大利很近。

The only other brand I'll call out is maybe Costa Asia, and that's because of the last minute booking trends.

我唯一要提到的其他品牌可能是歌詩達亞洲，這是因為最後一刻的預訂趨勢。

It's a very close short in booking cycle in China.

在中國的預訂週期非常短。

That typically is in the last few weeks.

這通常是在最後幾週。

So they -- once we resume cruising in China, I'm sure we'll see those bookings.

所以他們——一旦我們在中國恢復巡航，我相信我們會看到這些預訂。

But Europe is ahead and China is probably a little bit behind.

但歐洲領先，中國可能稍稍落後。

Everybody else is in a similar booked position.

其他所有人都處於類似的預定位置。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Great.

偉大的。

You commented that '21 bookings are in line with historical percentages, and you used the phrase of capacity that's available for sale.

您評論說 '21 預訂符合歷史百分比，並且您使用了可出售容量的短語。

So I just wanted to clarify, is that everything except those ships that are going to be sold?

所以我只是想澄清一下，除了那些將要出售的船之外，所有東西都是這樣嗎？

Or is there -- are you holding back capacity for sale?

或者是否存在 - 您是否在抑制銷售能力？

So just trying to think about that percent booked for next year.

所以只是想想想明年預訂的百分比。

Go ahead, David.

去吧，大衛。

Yes.

是的。

So it wasn't the exception of the ships being sold because those, in most cases, haven't been announced yet, except for 2. And so that will occur very shortly.

因此，出售的船隻也不例外，因為在大多數情況下，除了 2 艘之外，這些船隻尚未公佈。所以這將很快發生。

But the currently available for sale just referred to a few cruises that we had because of itinerary changes -- I'll give you a great example.

但是目前可售的只是指我們因為行程變化而進行的一些遊輪——我給你舉個很好的例子。

The Majestic Princess, given its itinerary change, it wasn't currently available for sale in the system.

至尊公主號，因行程變更，目前無法在系統內發售。

And you probably saw the recent announcement where Majestic Princess would be going to Alaska.

你可能已經看到了最近公佈的 Majestic Princess 要去阿拉斯加的消息。

So there's a few nuances.

所以有一些細微差別。

So of course, the lawyers had us put that in to make sure everybody completely understood.

所以當然，律師讓我們把它放進去，以確保每個人都完全理解。

But it's really just a nuance.

但這真的只是一個細微差別。

So wait, so you're talking about 90-plus ships are included in that what's available?

所以等等，所以你說的是 90 多艘船都包含在其中有什麼可用的？

Oh, yes.

哦是的。

Okay.

好的。

No, that's just...

不，那隻是...

Yes, it's a small amount.

是的，數量很少。

I wasn't sure if that was some very limited amount.

我不確定這是否是非常有限的數量。

But no, that's helpful.

但是不，這很有幫助。

No, no, no.

不不不。

And then my other question is I know you talked a lot in the beginning about discussions with various countries.

然後我的另一個問題是，我知道你在開始時談了很多關於與不同國家的討論。

The EU has already put out some very clear guidelines and suggestions.

歐盟已經提出了一些非常明確的指導方針和建議。

Are your discussions with the CDC along similar lines what the EU is suggesting?

您與 CDC 的討論是否與歐盟的建議類似？

Or are you seeing a big difference there?

或者你看到那裡有很大的不同？

At this point, the conversations with the CDC have all been around the current pause and the handling of the ships during the pause, which has exclusively crew onboard the ships.

在這一點上，與 CDC 的對話都圍繞著當前的暫停和暫停期間船舶的處理，船上只有船員。

We have not actually gotten to the point of serious resumption of cruise discussions with the CDC.

我們實際上還沒有到與疾病預防控制中心認真恢復郵輪討論的地步。

But of course, that's coming.

但當然，那即將到來。

So in terms of the EU, while there is a EU kind of general thing that's out there, each nation is going to do what it thinks it needs to do.

所以就歐盟而言，雖然有一種歐盟通用的東西，但每個國家都會做它認為需要做的事情。

And so there, you have to go country-by-country as well.

所以在那裡，你也必須逐個國家去。

And that's why, in our case, we not only had to do in Germany, the German authorities, but because the ships -- some of the ships were -- frankly, with Italy, we have to deal with Italy even for the German situation.

這就是為什麼，在我們的案例中，我們不僅必須在德國，德國當局，而且因為這些船隻——其中一些船隻——坦率地說，對於意大利，我們必須與意大利打交道，即使是在德國的情況下.

And so that's just the nature of the business.

這就是業務的本質。

So we'll have to deal and are dealing with various authorities everywhere.

因此，我們將不得不與各地的各種當局打交道。

And even with the CDC, you have individual communities and individual ports.

即使有 CDC，你也有單獨的社區和單獨的港口。

And the way this is going to work is port cities and destination cities all have to be aligned.

這將起作用的方式是港口城市和目的地城市都必須保持一致。

That's number one.

那是第一名。

Number two, they will be informed by or influenced by CDC and other relevant authorities depending where those destination cities are around the world and so on.

第二，他們將受到 CDC 和其他相關當局的通知或影響，具體取決於這些目的地城市在世界各地的位置等等。

And then it's going to be informed by our own degree of confidence that we're acting in the best interest of public health.

然後我們會根據我們自己的信心程度來判斷，我們的行為是為了公共衛生的最佳利益。

And that's why we've engaged a plethora of medical experts and scientists around the world that informed us what we're about to do with AIDA, for example, which we feel very good about the protocols there and that have all been worked out, again, with the ports there and the overall governing authorities in Germany.

這就是為什麼我們聘請了世界各地的眾多醫學專家和科學家，他們告訴我們我們將如何處理 AIDA，例如，我們對那裡的協議感覺非常好，並且所有這些都已經制定出來，再次，那裡的港口和德國的整體管理機構。

And that's the process.

這就是過程。

So it's a very involved process.

所以這是一個非常複雜的過程。

A lot of detail.

很多細節。

A lot of different constituencies.

很多不同的選區。

But yes, we are in conversations with the CDC as the entire industry.

但是，是的，我們正在與整個行業的 CDC 進行對話。

The industry is in conversations with each other, because no one wants to compete on health or safety or environment or anything like that.

該行業正在相互對話，因為沒有人願意在健康、安全或環境或類似的事情上競爭。

And we're all working collectively.

我們都在共同努力。

And I think the most important thing, Robin, is the first determinant is society's willingness to gather.

我認為最重要的是，羅賓，第一個決定因素是社會的聚集意願。

So it's social gathering.

所以這是社交聚會。

And so what you're seeing, for example, in Germany, where the community spread has become relatively low on an incident level basis, society is willing to socially gather.

所以你所看到的，例如，在德國，社區傳播在事件級別的基礎上變得相對較低，社會願意進行社交聚會。

And that lays the foundation for us to be able to do things.

這為我們能夠做事奠定了基礎。

And there's, with more information about the virus, better understanding of what to do and what not to do.

而且，隨著有關病毒的更多信息，可以更好地了解該做什麼和不該做什麼。

And so all of that together makes it possible and with confidence begin to sail again.

因此，所有這一切共同使之成為可能，並充滿信心地再次開始航行。

But we're not quite at that point, obviously, here in the U.S. where there's still surges in different portions of the country in terms of incidents and so on.

但顯然，我們還沒有到那個地步，在美國這裡，就事件等而言，該國不同地區的事件仍然激增。

But we're working on it and -- along with the rest of the industry.

但我們正在努力，並且 - 與行業的其他人一起。

Great.

偉大的。

I wonder if I could squeeze in just one tiny clarification, David.

大衛，我想知道我是否可以只做一個小小的澄清。

Sure, Robin.

當然，羅賓。

David, do you -- in your remarks, you used the expression, like, I think about accounts payable reversing itself.

大衛，你是不是——在你的評論中，你使用了這個表達，比如，我認為應付賬款會自行沖銷。

I guess I just want to clarify.

我想我只是想澄清一下。

Are you saying then that as of now, or over the course of June into now, that you are now bringing in more new deposits than what you are refunding in the last month?

您是說從現在開始，還是從 6 月到現在，您現在帶來的新存款比上個月退還的還多？

Is that what that referred to?

是指的那個嗎？

No, that's not exactly what that referred to.

不，這不完全是指的。

But I will answer the second part of what your question is there.

但我會回答你的問題的第二部分。

So what I was referring to is once we process the customer deposits -- and I'll give you a high level answer.

所以我指的是一旦我們處理了客戶存款——我會給你一個高水平的答案。

So customer deposits went down roughly $2 billion in the second quarter, but all the cash didn't go out the door.

因此，第二季度客戶存款減少了大約 20 億美元，但所有現金並未流出。

We actually paid about $1 billion and the other $1 billion wound up at the end of the quarter in AP because it's no longer a customer deposit.

我們實際上支付了大約 10 億美元，另外 10 億美元在 AP 的季度末結束，因為它不再是客戶存款。

And then we were able to process that $1 billion in the month of June, so AP came down.

然後我們能夠在 6 月份處理這 10 億美元，所以 AP 下來了。

But to answer your question relative to customer deposits, I think we had said in an 8-K we filed about a month ago that we did expect to see a decline in customer deposits during the third quarter, but that it was -- or actually, we said the back half of the year, but we expected it all to occur in the third quarter, and that the decline in the third quarter would be significantly less than the decline in the second quarter.

但要回答您關於客戶存款的問題，我認為我們在大約一個月前提交的 8-K 中說過，我們確實預計第三季度客戶存款會下降，但它是 - 或者實際上是，我們說的是下半年，但我們預計這一切都會發生在第三季度，並且第三季度的跌幅將明顯小於第二季度的跌幅。

So probably by the time we get to the end of the third quarter, we should be in a balanced position.

所以可能到第三季度末，我們應該處於平衡狀態。

Exactly what day of the week or month that occurs is somewhat dependent a little bit on the timing of extending the pause if and when that occurs as we move forward.

確切地發生在一周或一個月中的哪一天在某種程度上取決於在我們前進時延長暫停的時間和時間。

Our next question comes from Jamie Katz with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星的 Jamie Katz。

I have a question on the AIDA launch.

我有一個關於 AIDA 發布的問題。

It looks like in yesterday's press release, the original launch of the cruises will have an adjusted passenger capacity.

看起來在昨天的新聞稿中，最初推出的遊輪將有一個調整後的載客量。

And some of your competitors were quoted in the Financial Times yesterday saying that constrained capacity would really put a crimp on profitability.

昨天英國《金融時報》援引你們的一些競爭對手的話說，產能受限確實會影響盈利能力。

So I'm curious what that restrained capacity looks like kicking off and how you're thinking about that across the fleet.

所以我很好奇這種受限制的容量是什麼樣子的，以及你是如何考慮整個艦隊的。

Yes.

是的。

So first of all, the important aspect of this to focus on is proper social distancing within what the particular country society has determined at this point in time for them is what they are comfortable with, and then the social distancing that occurs in the public venues on the ship.

因此，首先，要關注的重要方面是在特定國家社會在此時為他們確定的範圍內適當的社會距離是他們感到舒適的，然後是在公共場所發生的社會距離在船上。

If you're in your cabin, you're naturally socially distanced from the other cabins.

如果你在你的小屋裡，你自然會與其他小屋保持社交距離。

So it's actually the public venues, the restaurants, the theaters, the -- et cetera.

所以它實際上是公共場所、餐館、劇院等等。

And there's also a lot of outdoor spaces on our ships, which again requires a slightly different understanding of social distancing than in closed places like certain restaurants.

而且我們的船上還有很多戶外空間，這再次需要對社交距離的理解與某些餐廳等封閉場所略有不同。

So that's the context and the framework to begin with.

這就是開始的背景和框架。

Given that, we're looking at different ways to manage the flow, which we do all the time on the ships, to ensure that we don't have congregations that would compromise the social distancing requirements at the time or -- and it's not even requirements, it's more preferences.

鑑於此，我們正在尋找不同的方法來管理人流，我們一直在船上這樣做，以確保我們沒有會影響當時社會距離要求的會眾，或者 - 它不是就算是要求，也是更多的喜好。

Right now, it's 1.5 meters in Germany, for example, okay?

例如，現在在德國是 1.5 米，好嗎？

And so that can then drive -- depending on how you plan to manage the flow in the ship, that can drive what you ultimately might do with occupancy.

所以這可以驅動——取決於你計劃如何管理船上的流量，這可以驅動你最終可能對入住率做的事情。

Along with the fact that you want to reserve an area on the ship in the event anyone has COVID or there are cases of COVID, that you can isolate those individuals in a comfortable situation so that you can mitigate any possible spread on the ship.

除了您希望在船上預留一個區域以防有人感染新冠病毒或出現新冠病毒病例外，您還可以將這些人隔離在舒適的環境中，從而減輕船上任何可能的傳播。

So that -- those are the dynamics involved.

所以 - 這些是所涉及的動態。

So then the straight answer to your question is we're going to start slow, of course, because we're starting out.

那麼，你的問題的直接答案是我們將開始緩慢，當然，因為我們正在開始。

We have to -- our people have to be trained.

我們必須——我們的員工必須接受培訓。

We have to see how people's behaviors really are.

我們必須看看人們的行為到底是怎樣的。

We've got lots of ways to set up the social distancing and so on.

我們有很多方法來設置社交距離等等。

So we're going to start with lower occupancy, but then we'll ramp up to higher occupancy as long as what we're doing is proven to be working.

因此，我們將從較低的入住率開始，但只要我們正在做的事情被證明有效，我們就會提高到更高的入住率。

And so that's kind of the flow.

所以這就是一種流動。

In terms of profitability, we can be less than 50% occupancy and still generate significant positive cash flow.

就盈利能力而言，我們的入住率可以低於 50%，但仍能產生可觀的正現金流。

Initially, we'll probably start at less than 50% occupancy as we work out the details and see where the choke points are and so on and so forth and get experience with it.

最初，我們可能會以低於 50% 的入住率開始，因為我們會計算出細節並查看阻塞點在哪裡等等等等，並從中獲得經驗。

But then we'll ramp up above that level of occupancy, hopefully, in a relatively short period of time, but we'll have to see how it goes.

但隨後我們將有望在相對較短的時間內超過該入住率水平，但我們必須看看情況如何。

But even at less than 50% occupancy, we can generate, on the ships that AIDA are putting into service right now, substantial positive cash flow.

但即使入住率低於 50%，我們也可以在 AIDA 目前投入使用的船舶上產生大量的正現金流。

And then to frame...

然後去構圖...

Okay.

好的。

And then -- go ahead.

然後——繼續。

I was just going to add a little bit to...

我只是想補充一點...

Go ahead, David.

去吧，大衛。

Just to kind of frame the overall picture.

只是為了勾勒整體畫面。

Generally speaking, the breakeven point in terms of occupancy for cash flow generation at the ship level is probably somewhere in the 30% to 50% range depending on the size of the ship.

一般來說，根據船舶的大小，在船舶層面產生現金流的佔用率的盈虧平衡點可能在 30% 到 50% 的範圍內。

So as Arnold said, if we start a little below 50% as we work our way up, those initial ships are probably at the lower end of that scale, and we will be generating positive cash flow.

因此，正如阿諾德所說，如果我們在逐步上升的過程中起步略低於 50%，那麼這些初始船舶可能處於該規模的低端，我們將產生正現金流。

But I want to try to give you a little bit of an example of the power of the cash flow generation of our business.

但我想給你舉一個例子，說明我們業務產生現金流的力量。

And -- but I don't have a forecast for 2020, and I can't provide you guidance.

而且——但我沒有對 2020 年的預測，也無法為您提供指導。

Let me try to use the 2019 actuals to kind of help you understand what -- the situation we're in.

讓我嘗試使用 2019 年的實際情況來幫助您了解我們所處的情況。

So if I look at the 2019 actuals and I say how many ships would we have had to operate to have a cash flow breakeven, the number is about 15 ships.

因此，如果我查看 2019 年的實際情況，並說我們必須運營多少艘船才能實現現金流盈虧平衡，那麼這個數字大約是 15 艘。

The top 15 ships probably generate about 30%, 31% of our cash flow.

排名前 15 位的船舶可能會產生大約 30%、31% 的現金流。

And of course, I guess, if I have to account for the fact that we have ships -- the rest of the ships would be in pause status, maybe I've got to operate 25 of the ships in our fleet to generate a little over 40% of our cash flow in order to cover the pause costs for the rest of the fleet and all of our shoreside SG&A, and we would still be cash flow breakeven.

當然，我想，如果我必須考慮到我們有船的事實——其餘的船將處於暫停狀態，也許我必須操作我們艦隊中的 25 艘船才能產生一點超過 40% 的現金流，以支付其餘船隊和我們所有岸上 SG&A 的暫停成本，我們仍將實現現金流盈虧平衡。

And by the way, if we're only operating 25 ships, I don't think we'd be spending as much as we did in 2019 on SG&A.

順便說一句，如果我們只運營 25 艘船，我認為我們在 SG&A 上的花費不會像 2019 年那樣多。

And when I did these calculations, I just assumed the 2019 SG&A was flat.

當我進行這些計算時，我只是假設 2019 年的 SG&A 持平。

So it gives you a bit of context of the power of cash flow generation in our business.

因此，它為您提供了一些關於我們業務中產生現金流的力量的背景。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

I think the other thing that might get you back to that is that Asia seems to be recovering a lot faster, and I believe Genting is going to start sailing at the end of the month.

我認為另一件可能會讓你回到過去的事情是亞洲似乎恢復得更快，我相信雲頂將在月底開始航行。

And so is there any time line that you guys have sort of outlined to get back into the region that you'd be willing to share?

那麼你們有沒有什麼時間表可以讓你們回到你們願意分享的地區？

You bet.

你打賭。

We never try to predict regulatory, because you kind of you can't.

我們從不試圖預測監管，因為你有點做不到。

And so obviously, we are working closely, especially with our JV partners in China, to see when we can start sailing again.

很明顯，我們正在密切合作，特別是與我們在中國的合資夥伴，看看我們什麼時候可以重新開始航行。

But at this point, we don't have a date certain or even probable for that.

但在這一點上，我們沒有確定甚至可能的日期。

But like you said, this virus has moved from east to west.

但就像你說的，這種病毒已經從東向西傳播。

And so like you, we're cautiously optimistic that we will, in due time here, be in a position to reintroduce cruising in the Asian market as well.

因此，和您一樣，我們謹慎樂觀地認為，在適當的時候，我們也將能夠在亞洲市場重新引入巡航。

Our next question comes from Tim Conder with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Tim Conder。

I wanted to continue, David, on your example that you just went through.

大衛，我想繼續你剛剛經歷的例子。

Benchmarking off of '19, given the ships that you're divesting and given you said there'll be -- or Arnold, you all referred to that there'll be cost, obviously, that will not come back into the equation shoreside and so forth.

以 19 年為基準，考慮到你正在剝離的船隻，並且你說會有 - 或者阿諾德，你們都提到顯然會有成本，這不會回到等式岸邊和等等。

What would be a rough guesstimate at this point where your cost per ALBD ex fuel should be relative to '19?

在這一點上，您的每 ALBD ex 燃料成本應該相對於 19 年的粗略估計是多少？

Just any color you could give us there.

你可以給我們任何顏色。

Go ahead, David.

去吧，大衛。

Yes, Tim, that's really very difficult at this point.

是的，蒂姆，在這一點上真的很難。

Keep in mind, as Arnold and I both said, it's been 120 days and that long list of things that we've done, so it's very difficult.

請記住，正如阿諾德和我都說過的那樣，已經 120 天了，我們已經完成了一長串的事情，所以這非常困難。

We're going to have -- we have a lot of work to do.

我們將有 - 我們有很多工作要做。

We've started that work on the initial AIDA cruises, but I'd be hesitant to extrapolate that across the whole fleet at this point, so -- and that would be providing some sort of guidance.

我們已經在最初的 AIDA 巡航中開始了這項工作，但我現在不願在整個艦隊中推斷這一點，所以 - 這將提供某種指導。

So as Arnold said, we're going to come back leaner and more efficient.

所以正如阿諾德所說，我們會變得更精簡、更有效率。

So I would expect some cost efficiencies versus prior year numbers, but that's the best I can do at this point given the short period of time we've had.

因此，我預計與前一年的數字相比會有一些成本效率，但鑑於我們所擁有的時間很短，這是我目前能做的最好的事情。

Okay.

好的。

And on...

並且在...

And we have -- there's so many variables with how quickly we ramp up back, which ships come in, which itineraries are they on, on and on and on.

而且我們有 - 有很多變數，我們以多快的速度回升，哪些船進來，他們在哪些行程上，一直在繼續。

And so there's a gazillion variables there.

所以那裡有無數的變量。

But what we do know is we're going to be back leaner.

但我們所知道的是，我們會變得更瘦。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And on the ships that you're divesting, any commentary that you can give to us as to whether the ultimate buyer -- will the majority of those be outright scrapped?

在您剝離的船舶上，您可以向我們提供任何關於最終買家是否——其中大多數會被徹底報廢的評論嗎？

Or will some of those ships stay in the global industry fleet?

或者其中一些船舶會留在全球工業船隊中嗎？

Well, first of all, we don't scrap ships, we recycle them.

嗯，首先，我們不報廢船舶，我們回收它們。

So the first comment would be, any ships that aren't sold into a market that doesn't directly interfere with our existing markets, which is what we would do, our sales are basically into uses that are different than our uses for the ships in the markets that we're in, then yes, those would go for recycling.

因此，第一條評論是，任何未出售到不直接干擾我們現有市場的市場的船舶，這就是我們會做的，我們的銷售基本上是用於與我們對船舶的用途不同的用途在我們所在的市場中，是的，這些將用於回收利用。

David, I don't know if you want to add any additional color.

大衛，我不知道你是否想添加任何額外的顏色。

Go ahead.

前進。

Yes.

是的。

Of the 13, it's just a few that are recycled.

在這 13 個中，只有少數被回收。

The majority are -- the intention, we're told, is to use them for a variety of purposes.

大多數是——我們被告知，目的是將它們用於各種目的。

Just a few recycled at this point.

在這一點上只有一些被回收。

So on recycled, just to be clear, should we view it as -- let me rephrase it, maybe those that would transport customers for cruise-related services or hotel-related services versus washing machines?

因此，在回收方面，為了清楚起見，我們是否應該將其視為 - 讓我換個說法，也許是那些將運送客戶進行郵輪相關服務或酒店相關服務而不是洗衣機的服務？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then lastly, if I may.

最後，如果可以的話。

When you're referring to historical bookings and pricing, just the definition of historical, are we talking in the last 3 years, 5 years?

當您提到歷史預訂和定價時，只是歷史的定義，我們是在談論過去 3 年還是 5 年？

Just to make sure we're thinking about the definition correctly there.

只是為了確保我們在那裡正確地考慮定義。

I think we're...

我想我們是...

We're primarily talking pre-COVID versus now.

我們主要是在談論 COVID 之前與現在的情況。

But go ahead, David.

但請繼續，大衛。

Yes.

是的。

What were you -- Tim, I'm assuming you're referring to the historical range on bookings when you said what range, I think we went back to like 2011 on that.

你是什麼——蒂姆，當你說什麼範圍時，我假設你指的是預訂的歷史範圍，我認為我們回到了 2011 年。

Our next question comes from Jamie Rollo with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Jamie Rollo。

Yes.

是的。

My first question is just on the order book, please.

我的第一個問題只是在訂單簿上，拜託。

It doesn't sound like it, but are you planning any cancellations of what sort of order?

聽起來不像，但您是否計劃取消什麼樣的訂單？

Or is it just a delay to your order book?

還是只是延遲了您的訂單？

I didn't quite hear the question.

我沒有完全聽到這個問題。

David, if you did, please go ahead.

大衛，如果你這樣做了，請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

It sounded like I cut out.

這聽起來像我切斷了。

But Jamie, you were talking about any cancellations on the order book versus delay?

但是傑米，您是在談論訂單簿上的任何取消與延遲？

There were no cancellations.

沒有取消。

What we were just talking about for the -- each ship was a delay.

我們剛剛談論的是——每艘船都是延遲。

On average, you're probably talking about 5-month delay for each of the 14 ships plus the 2 Seabourn expedition ships that are on order.

平均而言，您可能會談論 14 艘船和 2 艘訂購的 Seabourn 遠征船中的每艘的延遲 5 個月。

I think the most thing I'm saying there is going down to 5 versus 9 between now and '22, though.

不過，我認為我要說的最多的是從現在到 22 年之間的 5 比 9。

But go ahead.

但是繼續。

You had a follow-on, Jamie.

你有一個後續，傑米。

Go ahead.

前進。

Well, it was the same question really.

嗯，這確實是同一個問題。

Just wondering if you're planning any cancellations.

只是想知道您是否計劃取消。

I mean nothing so far, but are you in discussions with the yards about canceling any of those ships?

到目前為止，我的意思是什麼，但是您是否正在與船廠討論取消其中任何一艘船？

No, we're not in discussions about canceling ships.

不，我們不是在討論取消船隻。

We're in discussions with the yards about timing of deliveries and whatnot but not in canceling ships.

我們正在與船廠討論交貨時間等問題，但沒有取消船舶。

Again, we're far enough out with what we've talked about already that, hopefully, by then, we're planning to be directionally back at the capacity that we would have available at that point in time, actually being deployed globally.

同樣，我們已經談論的內容已經足夠遠了，希望到那時，我們計劃有方向地回到我們當時可用的容量，實際上是在全球範圍內部署。

And at that point, again, the new ships are just far more efficient.

在這一點上，再一次，新船的效率要高得多。

We would regulate what -- with demand by, again, disposing of less-efficient ships rather than trying to avoid bringing on the new ships.

我們將通過處理效率較低的船舶而不是試圖避免引進新船舶來規範需求。

The timing of that is important to us, but we would like to have the new ships.

時機對我們很重要，但我們希望擁有新船。

Yes.

是的。

And Jamie, in terms of timing, building to what Arnold was saying, essentially, I think Arnold had indicated in his prepared remarks that given the ships that were leaving the fleet as well as the newbuild schedule, it would be 2022 before we got back to the capacity that we had in the second quarter of 2020.

傑米，就時間而言，按照阿諾德所說的建造，基本上，我認為阿諾德在他準備好的評論中已經指出，鑑於離開艦隊的船隻以及新建造的時間表，我們要等到 2022 年才能回來達到我們在 2020 年第二季度的產能。

At the earliest.

在最早。

At the earliest.

在最早。

Correct.

正確的。

And then the other question is just on leverage.

然後另一個問題只是關於槓桿作用。

I think, David, you said you expect to return to investment-grade at some point.

我想，大衛，你說過你希望在某個時候回到投資級別。

And I think market expectations was for debt to get to about $20 billion or a bit more over the next 6 to 9 months.

我認為市場預期在未來 6 到 9 個月內債務將達到約 200 億美元或更多。

I mean at what point is that sort of too much debt and you might need to raise equity to bring that number down?

我的意思是在什麼時候債務過多，你可能需要籌集股本來降低這個數字？

So I would just venture to say that going back to some of my other remarks that our cash flow generation is tremendous.

所以我敢說，回到我的其他一些言論，我們的現金流產生是巨大的。

And with the newbuild schedule stretched out, we have the ability to pay down debt over time.

隨著新造船計劃的延長，我們有能力隨著時間的推移償還債務。

I will point out that $2 billion of that debt is converts.

我要指出，其中 20 億美元的債務是轉換債務。

And I do hope that those converts over time convert to equity since the conversion price is only $10 a share.

而且我確實希望這些轉換隨著時間的推移轉換為股權，因為轉換價格僅為每股 10 美元。

So we constantly take a look at our position.

因此，我們不斷審視自己的立場。

Our debt-to-cap ratio at the end of the second quarter was 50%.

我們在第二季度末的債務與上限比率為 50%。

Even if I add in the $2.6 billion we raised in June, that only puts us at 53%.

即使我加上我們在 6 月份籌集的 26 億美元，也只有 53%。

So I think we're in a reasonably good position.

所以我認為我們處於相當好的位置。

And with great cash flow generation, my expectation is we'll pay down the debt over time.

隨著現金流的產生，我的期望是我們會隨著時間的推移償還債務。

Can I just clarify what you said to an earlier question?

我可以澄清一下您對先前問題所說的話嗎？

I think you said that you need about 25% of the ships to break even, including the losses for the ships in cold layup.

我想你說你需要大約 25% 的船隻才能收支平衡，包括冷擱置船隻的損失。

Is that based on any low occupancy or yield number based on 2019?

這是基於 2019 年的任何低入住率或產量數字嗎？

Or is that just on the 2019 level of profitability?

或者這只是在 2019 年的盈利水平上？

I guess the number might be a bit different if you bake in a lower load factor.

我猜如果你在較低的負載因子下烘烤，這個數字可能會有點不同。

Agreed.

同意。

I was just giving -- because instead of giving you guidance, I was giving you 20 -- it wasn't 25%, it was 25 ships, which, I guess, in our case is close to 25%.

我只是給——因為我沒有給你指導，而是給你 20——不是 25%，而是 25 艘船，我猜在我們的例子中接近 25%。

But I was just using the 2019 actuals as they exist by ship and for the whole company to give you some framework to do your modeling.

但我只是在使用 2019 年的實際數據，因為它們存在於船舶上，並讓整個公司為您提供一些框架來進行建模。

And yes, obviously, those ships did sail at 100% occupancy.

是的，很明顯，這些船確實以 100% 的佔用率航行。

But also keep in mind, when I did this math, I didn't adjust the SG&A either which would be considerably lower for 25 ships than for a fleet of over 100 ships.

但也要記住，當我做這個數學時，我也沒有調整 SG&A，這對於 25 艘船來說比超過 100 艘船的船隊要低得多。

So again, it was just to provide you information to help you model, not to provide any guidance.

同樣，它只是為您提供信息以幫助您建模，而不是提供任何指導。

And in that theoretical modeling, 25 ships would be at full occupancy.

在該理論模型中，25 艘船將滿員。

We've got plenty of demand to fill that level of volume once things are resumed.

一旦事情恢復，我們就有足夠的需求來填補這一水平的交易量。

And so that's not going to be a major issue at that level for certain.

因此，這肯定不會成為那個級別的主要問題。

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brandt Montour。

So ticket prices have held up better than other industries in hospitality and travel.

因此，門票價格在酒店和旅遊方面的表現優於其他行業。

And I was just wondering what kind of dynamics you expect to play out as operations start to resume and marketing engines start back up at the industry level?

我只是想知道隨著運營開始恢復和營銷引擎在行業層面重新啟動，您希望發揮什麼樣的動態？

Well, we'll have to see.

好吧，我們得看看。

But again, because of the nature, and as I said in the remarks that we have the third lever of capacity, just the nature of the restart is going to almost be country by country and destination by destination.

但同樣，由於性質，正如我在評論中所說，我們擁有第三個產能槓桿，重啟的性質幾乎將是逐個國家和逐個目的地。

There's going to be pent-up demand that we will not, as an industry, be able to service in the early going.

將有被壓抑的需求，作為一個行業，我們將無法在早期提供服務。

And so that obviously creates a positive environment for yield with excess demand over the supply available.

因此，這顯然為產量創造了一個積極的環境，需求超過了可用供應。

There's a good chance that will persist for some time as the world kind of comes back into, as I said, on the shoreside, social gathering, because that's the critical thing for us to even begin to talk about cruising again, as is the case that's already happened in Germany and looks like it may happen in Italy soon.

正如我所說，隨著世界重新回到岸邊，社交聚會，很有可能會持續一段時間，因為這是我們甚至開始再次談論巡航的關鍵，就像情況一樣這已經在德國發生了，看起來它可能很快就會在意大利發生。

So with those dynamics, it's a good environment field.

因此，有了這些動態，這是一個很好的環境領域。

And of course, we're going to be paying close attention.

當然，我們將密切關注。

Obviously, our #1 financial consideration is generating cash and positive cash flow.

顯然，我們的第一大財務考慮是產生現金和正現金流。

But we think we have the opportunity with the environment that should exist at the time to -- and the fact that we can direct the capacity and manage the capacity introduction that we can keep it in line with demand, where we have a good yield environment as well.

但我們認為我們有機會在當時應該存在的環境中 - 我們可以指導產能並管理產能引入，我們可以使其與需求保持一致，我們擁有良好的收益環境也是。

David, any additional color you want to add to that?

大衛，你想添加任何其他顏色嗎？

No, I think that pretty well covers it.

不，我認為這很好地涵蓋了它。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful, guys.

這很有幫助，伙計們。

And then just a question on your bookings commentary, and it's great to see that you're seeing new cruisers booking.

然後只是關於您的預訂評論的問題，很高興看到您看到新的巡洋艦預訂。

But just since you're seeing most of your brands booking in similar ranges, that might imply you're not seeing demand differences between older versus younger cruisers.

但是，由於您看到大多數品牌的預訂範圍相似，這可能意味著您沒有看到舊巡洋艦與年輕巡洋艦之間的需求差異。

So just wondering if you could maybe cut the data by age cohort for us if you're seeing differentiation there?

所以只是想知道如果你看到那裡的差異，你是否可以為我們削減年齡組的數據？

Yes.

是的。

We're actually not seeing a big differentiation there, except for one general trend, which is longer cruisers.

我們實際上並沒有看到那裡有很大的差異，除了一個總體趨勢，即更長的巡洋艦。

So obviously, world cruises, 21-day cruises, that's a -- that is not booking as well, obviously, as shorter cruises given the environment at the time.

很明顯，世界巡遊，21 天的巡遊，這不是預訂，很明顯，考慮到當時的環境，作為更短的巡遊。

Those cruises go to lots of different places, where essentially people will say, well, what's the problem there, am I going to be able to go to all those places given the current situation with community spread, et cetera.

這些遊輪去很多不同的地方，基本上人們會說，嗯，那裡有什麼問題，考慮到目前社區傳播的情況，我是否能夠去所有這些地方等等。

And so -- and that's the difference.

所以——這就是區別。

But most of our brands on average were -- for the bulk of the brands, we had about a 45 age median age kind of -- or average age demand, especially Carnival, Costa, AIDA, those brands.

但我們的大多數品牌平均而言——對於大部分品牌來說，我們有大約 45 歲的中位年齡或平均年齡需求，尤其是嘉年華、歌詩達、AIDA 等品牌。

And so -- and then even with the others, we haven't seen a booking pattern change between those 65 and older or those under 65, except for the dynamic of the longer cruisers, which appropriately are not booking at the same rate at this point in time.

因此 - 即使是其他人，我們也沒有看到 65 歲及以上或 65 歲以下的人之間的預訂模式發生變化，除了更長的巡洋艦的動態，它們適當地沒有以相同的速度預訂時間點。

Hopefully, that answers your question.

希望這能回答你的問題。

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Patrick Scholes。

Quick question.

快速提問。

Let's say hypothetically, the CDC this afternoon said you're free to sail out of Miami.

假設說，CDC 今天下午說你可以自由地離開邁阿密。

Realistically, how many weeks do you think it would take for you to set your first ship out at that point in time?

實際上，您認為在那個時間點將您的第一艘船裝好需要多少週？

I think, again, it depends when that happens.

我認為，再次，這取決於何時發生。

But generally speaking, I'd say, within 30 days, we would be able to sail.

但一般來說，我會說，在 30 天內，我們將能夠航行。

Again, we -- there's a bunch of dynamics here and there are a lot of other countries involved.

同樣，我們 - 這裡有很多動態，還有很多其他國家參與其中。

So we have -- right now, we're going to minimum manning on the ships in terms of crew, the key for our ongoing costs now.

所以我們 - 現在，我們將在船員方面盡量減少船上的人員配備，這是我們現在持續成本的關鍵。

We have to keep the ships operating there in what we call warm layup.

我們必須讓船隻在我們所謂的暖擱置狀態下在那裡作業。

We have to keep operating, but it's with a minimum crew.

我們必須繼續運作，但它的工作人員最少。

So we have to get crew back.

所以我們必須讓船員回來。

Depending on the circumstances and what the protocols are, that could be a shorter or longer period of time if we're quarantining crew for a period of time before they go back on board, which could be the case, et cetera, that requires more time.

根據情況和協議是什麼，如果我們在船員返回船上之前將他們隔離一段時間，這可能是更短或更長的時間，這可能是這種情況，等等，這需要更多時間。

But I would say a lot of different scenarios within 30 days of knowing when we could cruise, we would be in a position to be prepared to.

但我想說的是，在我們知道什麼時候可以巡航的 30 天內，有很多不同的場景，我們會做好準備。

Just a kind of thumbnail kind of thing.

只是一種縮略圖之類的東西。

Our next question comes from Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Felicia Hendrix。

First, I did want to thank you all for the tremendous color and detail on this call, both in the Q&A and in the prepared remarks.

首先，我確實要感謝大家在這次電話會議中的精彩色彩和細節，無論是在問答環節還是在準備好的評論中。

It's been super helpful in a very cloudy time.

在非常多雲的時候，它非常有幫助。

So -- and with that as a theme, Arnold, I know at this point, it's probably really difficult for you to opine if you can actually sail in the U.S. as of mid-September, so I'm not going to ask you that.

所以 - 以這個為主題，阿諾德，我知道在這一點上，如果你真的能在 9 月中旬之前在美國航行，你可能真的很難發表意見，所以我不會問你.

But I am just wondering, at what point in time do delays in starting up start to affect the 2021 booking curve?

但我只是想知道，啟動延遲何時開始影響 2021 年的預訂曲線？

And just on the booking curve, just the language in your release seems to have changed a tad.

就預訂曲線而言，只是您發布的語言似乎發生了一點變化。

So I'm just wondering if I'm reading too much into this.

所以我只是想知道我是否對此閱讀過多。

Before you were saying that about almost 2/3 of the bookings for 2021 were cash bookings, and now that language is saying that it's almost 60%.

在您說 2021 年大約 2/3 的預訂是現金預訂之前，現在這種語言說它幾乎是 60%。

Okay.

好的。

I'll let David add some details to it.

我會讓大衛添加一些細節。

But just in general, again, we are encouraged by the bookings.

但總的來說，我們對預訂感到鼓舞。

But the '21 booking curve has already been impacted with just the circumstances.

但是 21 年的預訂曲線已經受到了這種情況的影響。

Obviously, at this point in time this year, if there have been no COVID, we'd be talking about different kinds of booking numbers.

顯然，在今年的這個時間點，如果沒有 COVID，我們將談論不同類型的預訂數字。

But David, you might want to more directly address the question.

但是大衛，你可能想更直接地解決這個問題。

Yes.

是的。

So it is just different time periods.

所以只是不同的時間段。

And so there was a time period, I remember the 2/3 distinctly.

所以有一個時間段，我清楚地記得 2/3。

I -- excuse me, I don't remember the exact time period it referred to, but the 60% was more current and -- as opposed to the 2/3.

我 - 對不起，我不記得它所指的確切時間段，但 60% 是最新的，而且 - 與 2/3 不同。

One of the things to keep in mind when you think about all this, in terms of -- it's not shocking that this is going to change over time because as people get their FCCs, many of them are not turning around and immediately rebooking.

當您考慮所有這些時要記住的一件事是 - 這會隨著時間的推移而改變並不令人震驚，因為隨著人們獲得他們的 FCC，他們中的許多人並沒有轉身並立即重新預訂。

We have quite a number of FCCs that are still yet applied.

我們有相當多的 FCC 尚未應用。

And the reason for that, if you think about it, if your cruise was canceled in April, May or June, you still have to like reorganize with your family, you have to plan vacation and do a lot of different things before you rebook your cruise.

原因，如果你想一想，如果你的遊輪在四月、五月或六月被取消，你仍然需要和家人一起重組，你必須在重新預訂之前計劃假期並做很多不同的事情巡航。

So logically, over time, we'll see the remainder of those FCCs booked.

因此，從邏輯上講，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到其餘的 FCC 被預訂。

And we do have quite a few.

我們確實有很多。

In fact, the majority -- the overwhelming majority have yet to rebook, and that is not in the booking statistics that we have provided.

事實上，大多數——絕大多數尚未重新預訂，這不在我們提供的預訂統計數據中。

Yes.

是的。

That makes a lot of sense.

這很有意義。

And then just -- and that kind of gets me on your customer deposits for '21.

然後只是 - 這讓我得到了 21 年的客戶存款。

You've given us a lot of good color there with cadence for '20.

你在 20 年的節奏中給了我們很多很好的色彩。

Have you -- can you give us the complexion of your '21 deposits?

你有沒有 - 你能告訴我們你的'21存款的膚色嗎？

What is the cadence of cancellations, if any, have been there?

如果有的話，取消的節奏是什麼？

And David, also, while I have you, it's just housekeeping, just wondering if you can issue more secured debt?

還有大衛，雖然我有你，但只是做家務，只是想知道你是否可以發行更多有擔保的債務？

Sure.

當然。

So '21 deposits, so the overwhelming majority -- I think we had indicated that there was about $500 million of deposits, so $475 million relating to cruises in the back half of 2020.

所以 21 年的存款，所以絕大多數——我想我們已經表明有大約 5 億美元的存款，所以 4.75 億美元與 2020 年下半年的遊輪有關。

And so the overwhelming majority of the $2.9 billion was '21 deposits.

因此，這 29 億美元中的絕大多數是 21 年的存款。

Generally speaking, I mean, occasionally, we get -- somebody calls and does a cancellation for a '21 deposit, but those are pretty normal.

一般來說，我的意思是，我們偶爾會接到——有人打電話取消 21 年的存款，但這些都是很正常的。

People occasionally get sick, plans change, things happen.

人們偶爾會生病，計劃改變，事情發生。

That's in the normal course, and we haven't seen any dramatic changes in that environment.

這是正常的過程，我們還沒有看到那個環境有任何戲劇性的變化。

And as far as the additional secured debt, we do have some additional capacity on a second lien basis to do additional secured debt.

至於額外的擔保債務，我們確實有一些額外的能力在第二留置權的基礎上做額外的擔保債務。

All right.

好的。

Everyone, Robin, you asked early on the question, but all of you, I'd like to invite all of you, July 28.

大家，羅賓，你提早提出了這個問題，但是你們所有人，我想邀請你們所有人，7 月 28 日。

You can go to the following site to register, it's CovidScienceSummit.com, CovidScienceSummit.com.

您可以到以下網站註冊，它是 CovidScienceSummit.com, CovidScienceSummit.com。

We're producing for the WTTC, that's the World Travel and Tourism Council, a gathering of well-renowned scientists to give the current state of understanding and knowledge about COVID-19, everything from the epidemiology to transmission to detection, prevention, treatment.

我們正在為 WTTC（即世界旅行和旅遊理事會）製作作品，該理事會匯集了知名科學家，旨在提供對 COVID-19 的當前理解和知識，從流行病學到傳播，再到檢測、預防和治療。

And practically, given where society is today, what seems to be the best knowledge around how society can effectively manage through the virus.

實際上，鑑於當今社會所處的位置，關於社會如何有效應對病毒的最佳知識似乎是什麼。

So to be -- as you know, this information is constantly changing in terms of knowledge around COVID-19, but it will be at that point in time, some of the best minds in the world sharing their perspective.

因此，如您所知，這些信息在圍繞 COVID-19 的知識方面不斷變化，但到那時，世界上一些最優秀的人才會分享他們的觀點。

So you're all welcome to attend.

所以歡迎大家參加。

It's free and open to the public, and it's jointly hosted by ourselves at Carnival Corporation and WTTC.

它免費向公眾開放，由嘉年華公司和WTTC共同主辦。

With that, I thank you for your time today.

有了這個，我感謝你今天的時間。

We really appreciate your interest and the questions.

我們非常感謝您的興趣和問題。

We're very much looking forward to resuming in Germany and eventually everywhere around the world.

我們非常期待在德國以及最終在世界各地恢復。

And again, I couldn't be more proud of our entire team managing through what has been a very challenging time but also a time that we're using to get leaner and stronger and come out even more powerful than we were before.

再一次，我為我們整個團隊管理度過了一個非常具有挑戰性的時期感到無比自豪，但同時也是我們用來變得更瘦、更強壯、比以前更強大的時期。

So thank you all for your attention.

所以謝謝大家的關注。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線員。

That does conclude the conference call for today.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。

We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。

Have a great day, everyone.

祝大家有個美好的一天。