嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2019 earnings conference call.

大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2019 年第四季度財報電話會議。

I'm Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc.

我是 Carnival Corporation & plc 的總裁兼首席執行官 Arnold Donald。

Today, I'm joined by our Chairman, Micky Arison; as well as David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer; and Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

今天，我們的主席 Micky Arison 加入了我的行列；以及我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein；和投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Thank you all for joining us this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

Now before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking.

現在在我開始之前，請注意，我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。

Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

因此，我必須向您介紹今天新聞稿中的警示性聲明。

First, I sincerely thank the 150,000 members of the Carnival family, who collectively work to offset numerous headwinds and still deliver memorable cruise experiences for our 13 million guests as well as another year of record adjusted earnings per share for our shareholders.

首先，我衷心感謝嘉年華大家庭的 150,000 名成員，他們共同努力抵消了眾多不利因素，仍然為我們的 1300 萬客人提供令人難忘的郵輪體驗，並為我們的股東帶來又一年創紀錄的調整後每股收益。

We achieved fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $0.62 per share; that's higher than the midpoint of our guidance by $0.14 per share.

我們實現了第四季度調整後每股收益 0.62 美元；這比我們指導的中點高出每股 0.14 美元。

We ended the year with full year adjusted earnings per share of $4.40, which is a new record for adjusted EPS, 3% better than last year's historical high and broadly in line with our capacity growth, despite a plethora of negative events and circumstances.

儘管有大量負面事件和情況，我們的全年調整後每股收益為 4.40 美元，這是調整後每股收益的新紀錄，比去年的歷史高點高出 3%，與我們的產能增長大致相符。

With that said, we were disappointed not to deliver the level of earnings growth we do plan to achieve over time.

話雖如此，我們對未能實現我們計劃隨著時間的推移實現的收益增長水平感到失望。

We believe our business is inherently capable of and we are working hard to ensure we are, in fact, doing even better.

我們相信我們的業務天生就有能力，並且我們正在努力確保我們實際上做得更好。

After 5 years of very strong adjusted earnings growth for our company, 2019 brought with it more than our fair share of challenges, including the abrupt regulatory change preventing travel to Cuba, geopolitical events in Arabian Gulf, Hurricane Dorian, a costly unscheduled dry dock and multiple shipyard delays, all of which necessitated the cancellation of cruises and in many instances, resulted in shorter booking windows, negatively impacting yields.

在我們公司 5 年非常強勁的調整後收益增長之後，2019 年帶來了超過我們公平份額的挑戰，包括阻止前往古巴旅行的突然監管變化、阿拉伯灣的地緣政治事件、颶風多里安、代價高昂的計劃外幹船塢和多次造船廠延誤，所有這些都需要取消遊輪，在許多情況下，導致預訂窗口縮短，對收益率產生負面影響。

Even though these unusual events were outside our direct control, as always, we go above and beyond to accommodate our guests who are inconvenienced, providing them with generous credits towards their next cruise purchase.

儘管這些不尋常的事件超出了我們的直接控制範圍，但我們一如既往地竭盡全力為不便的客人提供服務，為他們下次購買郵輪提供豐厚的積分。

In total, we estimate these unusual events cost the company approximately $0.23 per share.

總的來說，我們估計這些不尋常事件使公司損失了每股約 0.23 美元。

Now these events do have a tail effect going into 2020.

現在，這些事件確實對 2020 年產生了尾部效應。

And of course, the impact from these events was compounded by an unanticipated decline in consumer attitude, affecting leisure travel broadly in our Continental European source market, especially Germany.

當然，這些事件的影響因消費者態度的意外下降而加劇，影響了我們歐洲大陸客源市場，尤其是德國的休閒旅遊。

While quantifying the impact from macro conditions is always difficult, the decline in revenue yield for our Continental European brands was worth approximately $0.30 per share for fiscal 2019.

雖然量化宏觀條件的影響總是很困難，但我們歐洲大陸品牌的收入收益率下降在 2019 財年約為每股 0.30 美元。

Clearly, without this downturn, we would have achieved double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth, even in the face of the higher number and scale of unusual events.

顯然，如果沒有這種低迷，我們將實現兩位數的調整後每股收益增長，即使面對更多數量和規模的異常事件。

Unfortunately, we do see a continuation of that environment in Continental Europe into 2020.

不幸的是，我們確實看到歐洲大陸的這種環境將持續到 2020 年。

As a global company, with nearly 50% of our guest source from outside the U.S., we are subject to uneven economies around the world.

作為一家全球性公司，我們近 50% 的客人來自美國以外，我們受到世界各地經濟不平衡的影響。

We have a large percentage of our portfolio weighted in regions that are currently challenged, and this will remain a headwind in 2020.

我們的投資組合中有很大一部分權重位於當前面臨挑戰的地區，這在 2020 年仍將是不利因素。

In Germany, we carry more than half of all cruise guests.

在德國，我們運送了一半以上的郵輪客人。

AIDA outperformed overall in that travel market with revenue up mid-teens last year compared to a decline for overall tour operator revenue over the same period.

AIDA 在該旅遊市場的整體表現優於去年，其收入增長了十幾歲，而同期旅遊運營商的整體收入則有所下降。

Looking forward, AIDA is entering a period of slower cruise industry supply growth in Germany, beginning in the second quarter.

展望未來，從第二季度開始，AIDA 正進入德國郵輪業供應增長放緩的時期。

We expect capacity growth for our AIDA brand of just 5% next year, and that's down from 20% in 2019.

我們預計明年我們 AIDA 品牌的產能增長僅為 5%，低於 2019 年的 20%。

That said, we expect yield challenges similar to 2019, given the ongoing headwinds, which are impacting the entire leisure travel category in Germany.

話雖如此，鑑於持續的逆風正在影響德國的整個休閒旅遊類別，我們預計收益挑戰與 2019 年類似。

Despite that difficult environment, AIDA remains among the highest return on invested capital brands in our portfolio, and our team there has done an outstanding job growing demand for cruise, given the environment.

儘管環境艱難，AIDA 仍然是我們投資組合中投資資本品牌回報率最高的之一，鑑於環境，我們的團隊在郵輪需求增長方面做得非常出色。

In Southern Europe, we have 13% capacity growth in the face of what is also a difficult travel environment.

在南歐，面對同樣艱難的旅行環境，我們的運力增長了 13%。

We've already taken actions to adapt to what is proving to be a persistent challenge there.

我們已經採取行動來適應那裡被證明是一個持久的挑戰。

These actions include changes to itineraries to optimize our performance by reducing exotic programs, replacing them with more convenient and affordable cruises closer to home, eliminating the costly air component.

這些行動包括改變行程，通過減少異國情調的項目來優化我們的表現，用更方便、更實惠的離家更近的遊輪取而代之，消除昂貴的航空部分。

As previously announced, we also implemented an action plan to accelerate demand and rightsize capacity sourced from Southern Europe by removing 2 ships from the Costa Europe fleet for fiscal 2020 followed by a third in 2021.

正如之前宣布的那樣，我們還實施了一項行動計劃，通過在 2020 財年從歌詩達歐洲船隊中移除 2 艘船舶，隨後在 2021 年移除三分之一，來加速來自南歐的需求和調整產能。

The capacity of these 3 smaller ships will be somewhat offset by the delivery of the much more efficient Costa Smeralda.

這 3 艘小型船舶的運力將在一定程度上被效率更高的 Costa Smeralda 的交付所抵消。

Smeralda is the first new ship delivered for Costa in Europe in 5 years and has been well received by the market.

Smeralda是5年來為Costa在歐洲交付的第一艘新船，受到了市場的好評。

By accelerating our long-term strategy to replace existing capacity with larger and more-efficient vessels, we can improve return on invested capital for Costa over time.

通過加快我們的長期戰略，用更大、更高效的船舶取代現有運力，我們可以隨著時間的推移提高 Costa 的投資資本回報率。

In the U.K., our brands have also outperformed the overall leisure travel market and have grown revenue yields and profits in 2019 despite the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit.

在英國，儘管英國脫歐仍存在不確定性，但我們的品牌在 2019 年的表現也優於整體休閒旅遊市場，並實現了收入和利潤的增長。

In 2020, we are again experiencing strong demand, particularly for Iona, the first new ship for our U.K. brand in 5 years and the largest ever purpose-built ship for the U.K. Iona continues to book at a significant premium to our other U.K. ships on comparable cruises.

2020 年，我們再次遇到強勁的需求，尤其是對 Iona 的需求，這是我們英國品牌 5 年來的第一艘新船，也是英國有史以來最大的專用船可比的遊輪。

Now this has been somewhat muted in our overall projected 2020 U.K. performance by an increasing overhang from Brexit, the previously announced close-in deployment changes due to the tensions in the Arabian Gulf and the planned but lengthy dry dock for the high-yielding Queen Mary 2.

現在，由於英國脫歐的影響越來越大，由於阿拉伯海灣的緊張局勢以及計劃中但漫長的高產瑪麗皇后號幹船塢，先前宣布的近距離部署變化，這在我們預計的 2020 年英國整體表現中有所減弱2.

Turning to North America.

轉向北美。

We're seeing a continuation of positive trends in 2020.

我們看到 2020 年繼續呈現積極趨勢。

The Caribbean remains strong in occupancy and in yield growth overall for our brands and will be even stronger without the continuing yield drag from future cruise credits and the regulatory change in Cuba.

加勒比地區的入住率和我們品牌的整體收益增長仍然強勁，並且在沒有未來郵輪信貸和古巴監管變化的持續收益拖累的情況下，將更加強勁。

In Alaska, where yields remain high relative to other trades, the industry is in the process of absorbing the 10% capacity increase in 2020 on top of last year's 15% increase.

在阿拉斯加，相對於其他行業而言，產量仍然很高，該行業正在消化 2020 年產能增加的 10%，而去年的增幅為 15%。

While growing and profitable with our scale, Alaska remains a year-to-year yield growth challenge that we are working hard to address.

雖然我們的規模不斷增長並盈利，但阿拉斯加仍然是我們正在努力解決的年度產量增長挑戰。

We continue to focus on creating demand there, including some new approaches with our travel agent partners as well as new consumer communications efforts, specifically targeted for Alaska.

我們將繼續專注於在那裡創造需求，包括與我們的旅行社合作夥伴的一些新方法以及專門針對阿拉斯加的新的消費者溝通工作。

Concerning other trades.

關於其他行業。

Our brands collectively are deploying a number of innovative guest offerings to further stimulate demand.

我們的品牌共同部署了許多創新的賓客產品，以進一步刺激需求。

We've conducted a deep-dive analysis of our marketing activities and spend to drive demand in all the countries and brands we operate.

我們對我們的營銷活動和支出進行了深入分析，以推動我們經營的所有國家和品牌的需求。

Now while we're pleased with our overall combined earned and purchased marketing share of voice, we found pockets of opportunity to increase marketing impressions to generate demand and support future yield growth.

現在，雖然我們對獲得和購買的整體營銷份額感到滿意，但我們發現了一些機會來增加營銷印像以產生需求並支持未來的產量增長。

To that end, beginning in the fourth quarter of 2019, we've increased investments in media spend, leading into and including 2020 wave to support our brands and destinations around the world.

為此，從 2019 年第四季度開始，我們增加了對媒體支出的投資，引領並進入 2020 年浪潮，以支持我們在全球的品牌和目的地。

We've also been successful in increasing our analytical rigor in marketing and in media spend to drive demand generation and to better balance brand support activities with price and promotion efforts.

我們還成功地提高了我們在營銷和媒體支出方面的分析嚴謹性，以推動需求的產生，並更好地平衡品牌支持活動與價格和促銷活動。

On the guest experience side, we continue to deliver.

在客戶體驗方面，我們繼續提供服務。

Both our guest experience scores and our net promoter scores are towards the top end of prior ranges with many hitting new highs.

我們的客戶體驗得分和我們的淨推薦人得分都接近之前範圍的高端，其中許多都創下了新高。

We're stepping up investments in the guest experience even further through the new build schedule, which peaks this year in 2020, with 6 new ships entering service across 6 distinct markets: The aforementioned Costa Smeralda of Continental Europe and P&O Iona in the U.K. as well as Carnival Panorama, the first new ship homeported year-round for the Carnival brand on the West Coast in nearly 25 years, and Enchanted Princess, the second new ship delivered with Ocean Medallion.

我們正在通過新的建造計劃進一步加大對賓客體驗的投資，該計劃將於今年 2020 年達到頂峰，有 6 艘新船在 6 個不同的市場投入服務：前面提到的歐洲大陸的 Costa Smeralda 和英國的 P&O Iona。以及嘉年華品牌近 25 年來在西海岸全年停靠的第一艘新船 Carnival Panorama，以及第二艘以 Ocean Medallion 交付的新船 Enchanted Princess。

Towards the end of fiscal 2020, we will welcome Mardi Gras to Carnival Cruise Lines on the East Coast and Costa Firenze to Costa Asia.

在 2020 財年末，我們將歡迎 Mardi Gras 加入東海岸的 Carnival Cruise Lines 和 Costa Firenze 到 Costa Asia。

We continue to roll out our most popular features on our existing fleet with significant reimaginations like the recently introduced Carnival Sunrise to be joined by Carnival Radiance in mid-2020.

我們將繼續在現有機隊上推出最受歡迎的功能，並進行重大重新構想，例如最近推出的嘉年華日出，嘉年華光輝將於 2020 年年中加入。

In the Princess fleet, the Ocean Medallion rollout continues with 5 ships already completed and 6 more to be completed in 2020.

在公主船隊中，海洋勳章的推出仍在繼續，5 艘船已經完工，另外 6 艘將在 2020 年完工。

And to facilitate onboard revenue growth, the expansion of app-based technology across our other brands continues, including pre cruise purchases.

為了促進船上收入增長，我們繼續在其他品牌中擴展基於應用程序的技術，包括郵輪前購買。

Concerning destination development, we have 2 major developments underway on Grand Bahama Island and a second destination on Half Moon Cay, complementing the 6 destinations we had already developed and are operating in the Caribbean.

在目的地開發方面，我們在大巴哈馬島正在進行 2 個主要開發項目，在半月礁進行第二個目的地開發，以補充我們已經開發並在加勒比地區運營的 6 個目的地。

Importantly, we are elevating the guest experience without dramatically increasing operating costs.

重要的是，我們在不顯著增加運營成本的情況下提升客戶體驗。

In fact, we achieved over $125 million of cost savings in 2019 through global sourcing, bringing the cumulative total to over $480 million.

事實上，我們在 2019 年通過全球採購節省了超過 1.25 億美元的成本，累計總額超過 4.8 億美元。

These efforts will continue in 2020.

這些努力將在 2020 年繼續。

And of course, our highest responsibility and, therefore, top priorities are excellence in safety, environmental protection and compliance.

當然，我們的最高責任，因此也是首要任務是在安全、環境保護和合規方面的卓越表現。

On the sustainability front, we achieved a 4% reduction in per unit fuel consumption in 2019, and we expect another 4% in 2020, which will bring the cumulative reduction in fuel consumption per ALBD to 35%.

在可持續發展方面，我們在 2019 年實現了單位燃料消耗量減少 4%，我們預計 2020 年將再減少 4%，這將使每 ALBD 的燃料消耗量累計減少 35%。

We continue to lead the industry in the development of environmentally friendly fuel solutions.

我們在開發環保燃料解決方案方面繼續引領行業。

We joined The Getting to Zero Coalition, an alliance of organizations across the maritime, energy, infrastructure and finance sectors, committed to accelerating the decarbonization of the international shipping industry.

我們加入了海事、能源、基礎設施和金融領域的組織聯盟 The Getting to Zero Coalition，致力於加速國際航運業的脫碳。

Just this year, we delivered the first cruise ship to be solely powered by LNG, the most environmentally friendly fossil fuel.

就在今年，我們交付了第一艘完全由液化天然氣（最環保的化石燃料）提供動力的遊輪。

And just this month, delivered the second of the 11 LNG ships we ordered.

就在本月，我們訂購了 11 艘液化天然氣船中的第二艘。

We're also making significant investment in fuel cell technology and electrical energy storage capabilities.

我們還在燃料電池技術和電能存儲能力方面進行了大量投資。

We announced the groundbreaking pilot on AIDAperla, the first lithium-ion battery storage system to power, albeit for a limited period of time, a cruise ship's propulsion and operation.

我們宣布了 AIDAperla 的開創性試點，這是第一個為遊輪的推進和操作提供動力的鋰離子電池存儲系統，儘管時間有限。

And as early as 2021, AIDA cruises will be the world's first cruise company to test the use of fuel cells on a large passenger ship.

而早在2021年，AIDA Cruises將成為全球首家在大型客船上測試燃料電池使用的郵輪公司。

The fuel cells will be powered by hydrogen derived from ethanol.

燃料電池將由來自乙醇的氫提供動力。

Now these will complement other industry-leading technology we have already deployed to reduce emissions, including cold ironing, that shore power which we have the capability for on over 40% of our fleet, and advance their quality systems already deployed on nearly 80% of our fleet.

現在，這些將補充我們已經部署的其他行業領先技術以減少排放，包括冷熨，我們有能力為我們超過 40% 的船隊提供的岸電，並推進他們已經部署在近 80% 的船隊的質量系統我們的艦隊。

The investments we've made in advanced air quality systems also helps to mitigate increased costs, and we get benefit from any increase in spread and fuel types in the wake of IMO 2020.

我們在先進的空氣質量系統方面的投資也有助於降低成本的增加，並且在 IMO 2020 之後，我們可以從擴散和燃料類型的任何增加中受益。

Beyond carbon, we are focused on other areas concerning the environment, with the rollout of additional advanced wastewater treatment systems and food biodigesters.

除了碳之外，我們還專注於與環境有關的其他領域，推出更多先進的廢水處理系統和食品生物消化器。

In addition, we're making considerable progress on our goal to significantly reduce single-use plastics.

此外，我們在大幅減少一次性塑料的目標上取得了長足的進步。

Moreover, as part of our environmental efforts, we have also partnered with Jean-Michel Cousteau, an ocean future society.

此外，作為我們環保工作的一部分，我們還與海洋未來社會讓-米歇爾·庫斯托（Jean-Michel Cousteau）合作。

Of course, we have much more work to do and our sustainability efforts remain at the forefront of our strategic goals.

當然，我們還有很多工作要做，我們的可持續發展努力仍然是我們戰略目標的首要任務。

So in summary, we fully appreciate that the supply growth in Continental Europe is not well timed, given the macro environment that has unfolded.

因此，總而言之，我們充分認識到，鑑於已經展開的宏觀環境，歐洲大陸的供應增長時機不佳。

We build 30-year assets, and we take decisions many years in advance fully aware that we can't time the economic cycle that we deliver them into.

我們建立了 30 年的資產，並且我們提前多年做出決策，充分意識到我們無法確定將它們交付到的經濟周期的時間。

Accordingly, we assume every ship will see more than 1 recession in its 30-year life.

因此，我們假設每艘船在其 30 年的使用壽命中都會經歷一次以上的衰退。

I'd like to again acknowledge the successful efforts of our dedicated team members.

我想再次感謝我們敬業的團隊成員的成功努力。

For a consumer company with a meaningful portion of its business exposed to significant macro headwinds, to deliver record adjusted earnings is a strong accomplishment, and I'm very proud of our team members and the phenomenal guest experiences they deliver every day.

對於一家有相當一部分業務面臨重大宏觀逆風的消費品公司來說，實現創紀錄的調整後收益是一項巨大的成就，我為我們的團隊成員以及他們每天提供的非凡客戶體驗感到非常自豪。

And importantly, over time, we are focused on measured capacity growth.

重要的是，隨著時間的推移，我們將重點放在衡量的容量增長上。

After peaking at 6.6% in 2020, capacity growth flows to just under 5% in 2021.

在 2020 年達到 6.6% 的峰值後，到 2021 年運力增長將降至略低於 5%。

We've been accelerating ship sales with 2 more announced just this month, bringing the cumulative total to 30 ships in 14 years.

我們一直在加速船舶銷售，本月又宣布了 2 艘，使 14 年內累計船舶總數達到 30 艘。

In addition, we're working with the shipyard towards moderating the timing of new builds and at the same time, mitigate the risk of further delays in shipbuilding.

此外，我們正在與造船廠合作，以緩和新造船的時間，同時降低造船進一步延誤的風險。

We're continuing to work to improve our performance in fiscal 2020 and beyond to make progress towards double-digit earnings growth.

我們將繼續努力改善我們在 2020 財年及以後的業績，以實現兩位數的收益增長。

However, our adjusted earnings per share guidance of $4.30 to $4.60 today reflect that it will likely take beyond 2020 to achieve that level of earnings growth, given the current environment in Europe and the relative weighting of European sourcing in our portfolio.

然而，我們今天調整後的每股收益指引為 4.30 美元至 4.60 美元，這表明考慮到歐洲當前的環境以及歐洲採購在我們投資組合中的相對權重，可能需要 2020 年以後才能實現這一水平的收益增長。

As we've shown in the past, we believe our cruise brands will continue to be recession-resilient, given the low penetration levels of crews, attractive value proposition and high satisfaction levels relative to land-based vacation alternatives.

正如我們過去所展示的，我們相信我們的郵輪品牌將繼續具有抵禦衰退的能力，因為船員的滲透率較低、價值主張具有吸引力以及相對於陸上度假選擇的滿意度較高。

Although there are multiple external impacts outside of our control, we are aggressively managing those levers we do control or at least can strongly influence: demand, supply and controlling costs.

儘管存在我們無法控制的多種外部影響，但我們正在積極管理我們控製或至少可以強烈影響的那些槓桿：需求、供應和控製成本。

We're investing to stimulate demand through advertising, marketing and public relations efforts to maintain price discipline.

我們正在投資以通過廣告、營銷和公共關係來刺激需求，以維持價格紀律。

For supply, we're working to moderate capacity additions and at the same time, accelerate less-efficient capacity leaving the fleet.

在供應方面，我們正在努力減少產能增加，同時加快效率較低的產能離開車隊。

And we are leveraging our scale to achieve efficiencies and the fund investments without a significant net increase in cost.

我們正在利用我們的規模來實現效率和基金投資，而不會顯著增加成本。

In the best interest of long-term shareholders, we are making disciplined decisions to optimize our performance in the short term, while leaving us best positioned to capture the full benefit of global travel and tourism growth over the long term.

為了長期股東的最大利益，我們正在做出嚴格的決策，以優化我們的短期業績，同時讓我們處於最佳位置，以從長期內獲取全球旅行和旅遊業增長的全部利益。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Arnold.

謝謝你，阿諾德。

Before I begin, please note all of my references to revenue, ticket prices and cost metrics will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated.

在開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，否則我對收入、票價和成本指標的所有引用都將採用不變貨幣。

I'll start today with a summary of our 2019 fourth quarter and full year results, then I'll provide an update on our full year 2020 booking trends and finish up with some color on our 2020 December guidance.

我將從今天開始總結我們 2019 年第四季度和全年的業績，然後我將提供有關我們 2020 年全年預訂趨勢的最新信息，並在我們的 2020 年 12 月指南中添加一些顏色。

As Arnold indicated, our adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.62.

正如阿諾德所說，我們第四季度的調整後每股收益為 0.62 美元。

This was $0.14 above the midpoint of our September guidance.

這比我們 9 月指導的中點高出 0.14 美元。

The improvement was driven by 3 things: first, increased net ticket yields benefited from stronger pricing on close-in bookings on both sides of the Atlantic were $0.03; second, favorability in net cruise cost without fuel was worth $0.07, driven by cost improvements realized during the quarter and the timing of expenses between the quarters; and third, we benefited by $0.05 from the net impact of fuel price and currency.

這種改善是由三件事推動的：首先，由於大西洋兩岸近距離預訂價格上漲，淨票收益增加了 0.03 美元；其次，由於本季度實現的成本改善和季度之間的支出時間安排，不含燃料的淨巡航成本有利值為 0.07 美元；第三，我們從燃料價格和貨幣的淨影響中受益 0.05 美元。

Lower fuel prices were worth $0.04, while favorable currency movements were worth $0.01.

較低的燃料價格價值 0.04 美元，而有利的貨幣走勢價值 0.01 美元。

Now let's look at our fourth quarter operating results versus the prior year.

現在讓我們看看我們第四季度的經營業績與上一年的對比。

Our capacity increased 2.4%.

我們的產能增加了 2.4%。

Our North America and Australia segment, more commonly known as our NAA brands, were essentially flat, while our Europe and Asia segment, more commonly known as our EA brands, were up almost 7%.

我們的北美和澳大利亞部分，通常稱為我們的 NAA 品牌，基本持平，而我們的歐洲和亞洲部分，通常稱為我們的 EA 品牌，增長了近 7%。

Our total net revenue yields were down 1.8%.

我們的總淨收入收益率下降了 1.8%。

Now let's break apart the 2 components of net revenue yield.

現在讓我們分解淨收入收益率的兩個組成部分。

Net ticket yields were down 3.3% normalized for a small accounting update.

小幅會計更新正常化後，淨票收益率下降了 3.3%。

Our NAA brands were down 1.4%, also normalized driven by yield declines in late season Alaska and European programs, which were partially offset by improvements in the Caribbean, which were tempered by the redemption of future cruise credits, more commonly known as FCCs, which were issued earlier in the year, while our EA brands were down 4.4% as a result of the previously discussed economic challenges our Continental European brands are facing.

我們的 NAA 品牌下降了 1.4%，這也受到阿拉斯加和歐洲項目後期產量下降的推動，這部分被加勒比地區的改善所抵消，這些改善被未來的郵輪信用額度（通常稱為 FCC）的贖回所緩和。在今年早些時候發行，而我們的 EA 品牌由於之前討論的我們的歐洲大陸品牌面臨的經濟挑戰而下降了 4.4%。

Net onboard and other yields increased almost 2%, also normalized for the same accounting update, with increases on both sides of the Atlantic.

船上淨收益率和其他收益率增長了近 2%，在同一會計更新中也正常化，大西洋兩岸都有增長。

Net cruise costs per ALBD, excluding fuel, were up 2.6%, mainly due to higher advertising expense and higher dry dock days in the quarter.

每艘 ALBD 的淨遊輪成本（不包括燃料）增長 2.6%，主要是由於本季度廣告費用增加和乾船塢天數增加。

While the fourth quarter was up, let's not forget the full year 2019 costs were down 0.3%.

雖然第四季度有所上升，但我們不要忘記 2019 年全年成本下降了 0.3%。

In summary, our fourth quarter adjusted EPS was $0.08 less than last year, as a result of lower net revenue yields, which cost us $0.10 and higher net cruise cost per ALBD, excluding fuel, which cost us $0.08, both of which were partially offset by the net benefit of fuel price and currency worth $0.11.

總而言之，我們第四季度調整後的每股收益比去年減少了 0.08 美元，這是由於淨收入收益率下降（成本為 0.10 美元）和每艘 ALBD 的淨巡航成本增加（不包括燃油成本為 0.08 美元），這兩者都被部分抵消了燃油價格和價值 0.11 美元的貨幣的淨收益。

Lower fuel prices were worth $0.14 while unfavorable currency movements cost us $0.03.

較低的燃料價格價值 0.14 美元，而不利的貨幣變動使我們損失了 0.03 美元。

Had it not been for the voyage disruptions due to weather, a ship delayed delivery and the previously announced U.S. government's policy change on travel to Cuba, which costs us approximately $0.08, our fourth quarter adjusted EPS would have been in line with last year.

如果不是由於天氣造成的航程中斷、一艘船延遲交付以及之前宣布的美國政府對古巴旅行的政策變化，我們的成本約為 0.08 美元，我們第四季度調整後的每股收益將與去年持平。

Looking back at the full year 2019.

回顧2019年全年。

We grew our earnings 3.3%, with adjusted EPS rising to $4.40 versus $4.26 for the prior year.

我們的收益增長了 3.3%，調整後的每股收益從去年的 4.26 美元上升到 4.40 美元。

Our capacity increased 4.2%.

我們的產能增加了 4.2%。

Our NAA brands were up 1.8%, while our EA brands were up 8.6%.

我們的 NAA 品牌增長了 1.8%，而我們的 EA 品牌增長了 8.6%。

Our total net revenue yields were down 0.2%.

我們的總淨收入收益率下降了 0.2%。

Again, let's break apart the 2 components of net revenue yield.

再次，讓我們分解淨收入收益率的兩個組成部分。

Net ticket yields were down 1%.

門票淨收益率下降 1%。

Our NAA brands were up 0.7%, driven by yield increases in the Caribbean, which were partially offset by declines in our Alaska program.

在加勒比地區產量增長的推動下，我們的 NAA 品牌增長了 0.7%，這部分被我們阿拉斯加計劃的下降所抵消。

As we previously indicated, we had an 8% increase in our Alaska capacity during 2019, while the industry capacity increased 15%.

正如我們之前指出的，我們在 2019 年的阿拉斯加產能增加了 8%，而行業產能增加了 15%。

Our EA brands were down 2.7% as a result of the previously discussed economic challenges our Continental European brands are facing.

由於之前討論的我們的歐洲大陸品牌面臨的經濟挑戰，我們的 EA 品牌下降了 2.7%。

As Arnold indicated, we did see yield increases at our U.K. brands, despite the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit.

正如阿諾德所說，儘管英國脫歐仍存在不確定性，但我們確實看到我們英國品牌的產量有所增加。

Net onboard and other yields increased 2% with increases on both sides of the Atlantic.

隨著大西洋兩岸的增加，船上淨產量和其他產量增加了 2%。

During 2019, we had to navigate a long list of challenges and unusual events that Arnold summarized.

在 2019 年，我們必須應對阿諾德總結的一長串挑戰和不尋常事件。

We estimate that the unusual events in 2019 cost the company approximately $0.23.

我們估計 2019 年的不尋常事件使公司損失了大約 0.23 美元。

These events unfavorably impacted both net revenue yields and net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD by about 0.4.

這些事件對每 ALBD 的淨收入收益率和不帶燃料的淨巡航成本產生了不利影響，大約降低了 0.4。

During 2019, we also benefited from the gross accretive impact of the share repurchase program worth $0.12.

在 2019 年，我們還受益於價值 0.12 美元的股票回購計劃的總增值影響。

Fuel prices and currency each had significant year-over-year individual impacts.

燃料價格和貨幣每年都有顯著的個人影響。

However, the net impact only cost us $0.01.

然而，淨影響僅花費了我們 0.01 美元。

Lower fuel prices contributed $0.17, while the stronger dollar cost us $0.18.

較低的燃料價格貢獻了 0.17 美元，而美元走強則花費了 0.18 美元。

Turning to our cash flows for 2019.

轉向我們2019年的現金流。

Cash provided by operations was $5.5 billion.

運營提供的現金為 55 億美元。

As a result of our strong cash flows during the year, we were able to return almost $2 billion to our shareholders via the regular quarterly dividend and the share repurchases of almost $600 million.

由於我們在這一年的強勁現金流，我們能夠通過定期的季度股息和近 6 億美元的股票回購向股東返還近 20 億美元。

Now turning to 2020 booking trends.

現在轉向 2020 年的預訂趨勢。

We are entering fiscal year 2020 with a record booked occupancy position.

我們正以創紀錄的入住人數進入 2020 財年。

At this point in time, our cumulative advanced bookings for the full year 2020 are slightly ahead of the prior year on occupancy with a 6.6% capacity increase at prices that are slightly lower than last year on a comparable basis, which does not include the net revenue yield mix headwind of approximately 0.5 for the full year 2020.

目前，我們 2020 年全年累計提前預訂的入住率略高於上年，容量增長 6.6%，價格略低於去年可比價格，其中不包括淨2020 年全年的收入收益率組合逆風約為 0.5。

Now let's drill down into the cumulative booked position.

現在讓我們深入了解累計預訂頭寸。

Cumulative advanced bookings for our NAA brands are higher than the prior year on occupancy and in line on price.

我們 NAA 品牌的累計提前預訂量高於去年的入住率和價格。

Higher prices in the Caribbean, which were tempered by the redemption of FCCs issued during 2019, are offset by lower pricing in Alaska, while for our EA brands, cumulative advanced bookings are in line with the prior year on occupancy at lower prices.

加勒比地區的較高價格因 2019 年發行的 FCC 的贖回而有所緩和，但被阿拉斯加較低的價格所抵消，而對於我們的 EA 品牌，由於較低的入住率，累計提前預訂與上一年持平。

Finally, I want to provide you with some color on 2020.

最後，我想為您提供2020年的一些色彩。

Based on current booking trends, we expect 2020 net cruise revenues to be up approximately 5%, with capacity growth of 6.6%, while net revenue yields are expected to decline approximately 1.5%.

根據目前的預訂趨勢，我們預計 2020 年郵輪淨收入將增長約 5%，運力增長 6.6%，而淨收入收益率預計將下降約 1.5%。

Similar to 2019, the 2020 net revenue yield decline is driven by the challenging economic environment facing our Continental European brand.

與 2019 年類似，2020 年淨收入收益率下降是由我們的歐洲大陸品牌面臨的充滿挑戰的經濟環境推動的。

The forecasted capacity increase of 6.6% is broken down by quarter as follows: first quarter is 6%; second quarter is also 6%; while the third quarter is 5.7%; and the fourth quarter is 8.9%.

預計產能增長 6.6%，按季度細分如下：第一季度為 6%；第二季度也是6%；而第三季度為5.7%；第四季度為8.9%。

Given the 2020 capacity increase by brand, we will have a mix headwind, which will impact our reported net revenue yields by approximately 0.5 for the full year.

鑑於 2020 年各品牌的產能增加，我們將面臨混合阻力，這將影響我們報告的全年淨收入收益率約 0.5。

Now turning to costs.

現在轉向成本。

Net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD is expected to be flat for 2020 versus 2019.

預計 2020 年與 2019 年相比，每 ALBD 的淨巡航成本將持平。

Broadly speaking, there are 3 main drivers of the cost change: First, our forecast is for an average 2 points of inflation across all cost categories globally; second, we are able to more than offset this inflation from the economies of scale we achieved by taking delivery of larger, more efficient ships, while disposing of less efficient ships as well as the cost savings from further leveraging our global sourcing scale; the third and final point relates to investments we will make in our 2020 deployment, advertising, our recently formed ethics and compliance department as well as other small investments in IT and other areas of the business.

從廣義上講，成本變化有 3 個主要驅動因素：首先，我們的預測是全球所有成本類別的平均通脹率為 2 個百分點；其次，我們能夠通過交付更大、更高效的船舶，同時處置效率較低的船舶，以及通過進一步利用我們的全球採購規模來節省成本，從而大大抵消了規模經濟帶來的通脹；第三點也是最後一點涉及我們將在 2020 年的部署、廣告、我們最近成立的道德與合規部門以及對 IT 和其他業務領域的其他小額投資進行的投資。

For full year 2020, earnings is estimated to include $0.12 to $0.17 incremental impact from prior year events and previously announced 2020 voyage disruptions, including ship delivery delays.

對於 2020 年全年，收益預計將包括 0.12 美元至 0.17 美元的增量影響，包括上一年事件和先前宣布的 2020 年航行中斷，包括船舶交付延誤。

These events are expected to unfavorably impact net revenue yield by almost 0.5.

預計這些事件將對淨收入收益率產生近 0.5 的不利影響。

On the cost side, these events plus an accounting difference are expected to unfavorably impact net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD by 0.7.

在成本方面，這些事件加上會計差異預計將對每 ALBD 無燃料的淨巡航成本產生 0.7 的不利影響。

Net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD guidance would have been down 0.7 instead of flat.

根據 ALBD 指南，不含燃料的淨巡航成本將下降 0.7 而不是持平。

We currently expect depreciation to be around $2.41 billion for 2020 versus $2.16 billion for 2019.

我們目前預計 2020 年折舊約為 24.1 億美元，而 2019 年為 21.6 億美元。

For net interest expense, our current expectation for 2020 is around $220 million versus $183 million for 2019.

對於淨利息支出，我們目前對 2020 年的預期約為 2.2 億美元，而 2019 年為 1.83 億美元。

The net impact of fuel price, currency and fuel mix is expected to favorably impact 2020 by $0.17 to $0.24.

燃料價格、貨幣和燃料組合的淨影響預計將對 2020 年產生 0.17 美元至 0.24 美元的有利影響。

Fuel expense for 2020 is now forecasted to be $1.42 billion for the full year versus $1.56 billion for 2019.

現在預計 2020 年全年的燃料費用為 14.2 億美元，而 2019 年為 15.6 億美元。

Putting all these factors together, our adjusted EPS guidance for 2020 is $4.30 to $4.60 versus $4.40 for 2019.

綜合所有這些因素，我們調整後的 2020 年每股收益指引為 4.30 美元至 4.60 美元，而 2019 年為 4.40 美元。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Arnold.

現在我將把電話轉回給阿諾德。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Operator, please open the line for questions.

接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Felicia Hendrix。

So you guys gave us a lot of really good color on the call, which is always very helpful.

所以你們在電話會議上給了我們很多非常好的顏色，這總是非常有幫助的。

And it sounds like while issues are continuing in Europe and Alaska, you're starting programs to mitigate those challenges.

聽起來，雖然歐洲和阿拉斯加的問題仍在繼續，但您正在啟動旨在緩解這些挑戰的計劃。

And Arnold, you touched on this a bit in your prepared remarks, but besides moving ships out of the region in Europe, what else can you do to stimulate demand there?

阿諾德，你在準備好的發言中談到了這一點，但除了將船隻移出歐洲地區之外，你還能做些什麼來刺激那裡的需求？

So basically, what I'm trying to get to is that some investors have been concerned that you would use price discounting to stimulate demand versus tactical marketing and promotions.

因此，基本上，我想要了解的是，一些投資者一直擔心你會使用價格折扣來刺激需求，而不是戰術營銷和促銷。

So I'm just hoping that you could remind us of your corporate philosophy in terms of yield management and what your typical strategic response would be if demand doesn't change after some of the structural changes you are making are set in place.

所以我只是希望你能提醒我們你在收益管理方面的企業理念，以及如果在你所做的一些結構性改變到位後需求沒有改變，你的典型戰略反應是什麼。

Thanks, Felicia.

謝謝，費利西亞。

Yes.

是的。

Definitely, we have a bias towards discipline in pricing.

毫無疑問，我們在定價方面偏向於紀律。

And in Europe, again, I can't emphasize enough what a great job our team has done in Germany, given the environment that they have and how cost is responding as well to the persistent challenges they've had.

在歐洲，我再一次強調我們的團隊在德國所做的出色工作，考慮到他們所擁有的環境以及成本如何應對他們所面臨的持續挑戰。

So with all the moves we made with regards to itinerary planning and capacity movement, obviously, the teams are also doing quite a bit with the trade, and with marketing and using digital marketing and other things more effectively and refining our model with YODA, which is the revenue management tool.

因此，隨著我們在行程規劃和容量移動方面採取的所有舉措，顯然，團隊也在貿易、營銷和更有效地使用數字營銷等方面做了大量工作，並與 YODA 一起改進了我們的模型，是收益管理工具。

We have AIDAs adopting YODA and particularly to that Costa as we put additional revenue management talent on that.

我們有 AIDA 採用 YODA，尤其是那個 Costa，因為我們在上面增加了額外的收入管理人才。

And so from a combination of things, again, they fill the ships, it's robust given the nature of the market there in terms of actual demand, we do have record bookings at peak capacity.

因此，從綜合來看，它們再次填滿了船隻，考慮到實際需求方面的市場性質，它是強勁的，我們確實在峰值容量時有創紀錄的預訂量。

And so in that regard, it is strong.

所以在這方面，它很強大。

And in Alaska, what's sort of strategic things could you do there to stimulate demand, given all the supply?

在阿拉斯加，考慮到所有供應，你能做些什麼來刺激需求？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, we said on the call, there is, what some people would probably call, a temporary overconcentration of supply in Alaska.

是的，我們在電話會議上說，有些人可能會說，阿拉斯加的供應暫時過度集中。

But Alaska is premium price to Caribbean.

但阿拉斯加比加勒比海要高價。

So it is very profitable for us.

所以這對我們來說是非常有利可圖的。

And obviously, for others, which is why they're there.

顯然，對於其他人來說，這就是他們在那裡的原因。

And we have also a little bit of a mix challenge because as we grow capacity, we can't grow the land portion as well, which naturally gives us a kind of a yield drag because, obviously, the excursion portion helps our overall yield performance in Alaska.

而且我們也有一點混合挑戰，因為隨著產能的增加，我們不能同時增加土地部分，這自然給我們帶來了一種產量拖累，因為顯然，偏移部分有助於我們的整體產量表現在阿拉斯加。

But we've got very good initiatives in the key brands that are serving Alaska.

但我們在服務於阿拉斯加的主要品牌中採取了非常好的舉措。

We'll have to see how they play out.

我們將不得不看看他們的表現如何。

We're right before wave, but they have some tools and some great marketing techniques.

我們就在浪潮之前，但他們有一些工具和一些很棒的營銷技巧。

We've revisit the digital aspect of our marketing and enhanced that already dramatically.

我們重新審視了我們營銷的數字方面，並已經顯著增強了這一點。

We've seen some early results from that.

我們已經看到了一些早期的結果。

So those are the things we're doing, but I don't want to make it sound like Alaska is a bad market, it's a great market.

所以這些就是我們正在做的事情，但我不想讓人覺得阿拉斯加是一個糟糕的市場，它是一個偉大的市場。

We make really good money there.

我們在那裡賺了很多錢。

The reason why capacity is going in is because it is a strong market with a lot of demand from guests.

產能進入的原因是因為它是一個強大的市場，有很多客人的需求。

And we're doing everything to put us in position over time, grow yield there, along with growing the capacity.

隨著時間的推移，我們正在盡一切努力使我們處於適當的位置，在那裡增加產量，同時增加產能。

And then for David or Beth, I was just wondering if you could help us understand the yield in NCC ex fuel cadence for the quarters?

然後對於大衛或貝絲，我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們了解 NCC 前燃料節奏的產量季度？

I mean, obviously, you've given us the first quarter and the full year, but maybe if you could help us understand better how those would kind of -- just the cadence.

我的意思是，很明顯，你已經給了我們第一季度和全年，但也許你能幫助我們更好地了解這些情況——只是節奏。

And then also, D&A and interest guidance for the first quarter and the full year.

然後還有第一季度和全年的 D&A 和利息指導。

Sure.

當然。

So on costs, we did say that net cruise cost would be flat for the full year and the first quarter is down 2% to 3%.

所以在成本方面，我們確實說過全年淨郵輪成本將持平，第一季度下降 2% 至 3%。

So obviously, the remaining 3 quarters have to average up each quarter, something close to 1%, just to get back to flat.

所以很明顯，剩下的 3 個季度每個季度都必須平均上漲，接近 1%，才能回到平穩狀態。

I'm reluctant to give guidance by quarter because of all the seasonalization and it's very difficult.

由於所有季節性因素，我不願意按季度提供指導，這非常困難。

But I will say that in terms of dry dock days, which does, to some extent, drive some of the net cruise costs, I had mentioned dry dock days were down in the first quarter, and that's why it was driving the cost down.

但我會說，就乾船塢天數而言，這在一定程度上推動了一些淨遊輪成本，我曾提到第一季度幹船塢天數有所下降，這就是它推動成本下降的原因。

You will see higher dry dock days in the second and lower dry dock days in the fall, which will, to some extent, impact that average 1%.

您會看到第二個乾船塢天數增加，秋季幹船塢天數減少，這在一定程度上會影響平均 1%。

But that's not guidance, I'm just giving you the math to get to the flat.

但這不是指導，我只是給你算術讓你去公寓。

And, Beth, do you have...

還有，貝絲，你有沒有...

Okay.

好的。

On the -- just on the yield side.

在 - 只是在收益方面。

So in the first quarter, if you're down 1% to 2% and the full year, you're down 1.5%, I mean, just cadence, what I'm not asking for guidance, but just -- would it kind of be even through the year?

所以在第一季度，如果你下降 1% 到 2%，全年下降 1.5%，我的意思是，只是節奏，我不是在尋求指導，而是——甚至通過一年？

Do you think the first half will be worse than the second half?

你覺得上半年會比下半年差嗎？

That kind of color.

那種顏色。

It's very early.

現在很早。

Wave hasn't started.

波還沒有開始。

There's a lot left to go.

還有很多事情要做。

We're doing a lot of marketing and advertising activities that Arnold mentioned to shape the number in the end.

我們正在做很多阿諾德提到的營銷和廣告活動，以最終塑造這個數字。

And so I'd be reluctant to give you quarterly guidance.

所以我不願意給你季度指導。

But obviously, the full year is similar to the first quarter.

但顯然，全年與第一季度相似。

So on average, included in that is something similar for all 3 quarters.

因此，平均而言，所有 3 個季度都包含在其中。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then the D&A and interest?

然後是 D&A 和興趣？

Let me get back to you on that.

讓我回复你。

I just -- I don't have the...

我只是——我沒有...

D&A for the quarter is $580 million to $590 million and interest for the quarter is $55 million to $60 million.

本季度的 D&A 為 5.8 億美元至 5.9 億美元，本季度的利息為 5500 萬美元至 6000 萬美元。

And then for the year?

然後是一年？

$2.4 billion -- $2.41 billion for the year and $220 million for the -- for interest.

24 億美元——年度 24.1 億美元，利息 2.2 億美元。

$2.41 billion for D&A and $220 million for interest.

D&A 24.1 億美元，利息 2.2 億美元。

Thank you, Felicia.

謝謝你，費利西亞。

Happy holidays to you.

祝你節日快樂。

The next question comes from the line of Greg Badishkanian with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Greg Badishkanian。

Great.

偉大的。

In first quarter of '20 and full year 2020, net yield guidance is roughly the same.

在 20 年第一季度和 2020 年全年，淨收益率指引大致相同。

It's around 1.5 points, if you look at the midterm -- that midpoint of the guidance.

如果你看中期——指導的中點，它大約是 1.5 點。

What's the cumulative booked position in pricing for Q1?

第 1 季度定價中的累計預訂頭寸是多少？

You had talked about slightly higher bookings, with slightly higher pricing for the full year.

您曾談到預訂量略高，全年定價略高。

Is it pretty similar for Q1?

Q1 是不是很相似？

So we just gave the booked position, but we always talk about the fact that our booked position for the first quarter is typically 80% to 90% booked, and we're at the higher end of the range.

所以我們只是給出了預定的位置，但我們總是談論這樣一個事實，即我們第一季度的預定位置通常是預定的 80% 到 90%，我們處於該範圍的高端。

We've been at the higher end of the range all year, for the last couple of quarters.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們全年都處於該範圍的高端。

And that -- at this point in time, that's about as -- for competitive reasons, that's about as much information as we want to disclose.

而且 - 在這個時間點，這大約是 - 出於競爭原因，這就是我們想要披露的盡可能多的信息。

Okay, okay.

好吧好吧。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And just looking at -- if you look at U.K., you mentioned that you're seeing an increasing overhang from Brexit.

看看 - 如果你看看英國，你提到你看到英國退歐的影響越來越大。

Can you talk about what's just driving that?

你能談談是什麼推動了這一點嗎？

I would think that with greater certainty around Brexit happening, maybe that you'd see an improvement in trends over the coming months, maybe nothing is concluded, but it does look like it's more likely to happen with the regional elections there.

我認為，隨著英國退歐的發生更加確定，也許你會看到未來幾個月的趨勢有所改善，也許沒有任何結論，但看起來它更有可能發生在那裡的地區選舉。

Anything we would say now would be pure speculation and it just happened, and we'll just have to monitor consumer attitudes.

我們現在所說的任何事情都是純粹的猜測，而且它剛剛發生，我們只需要監控消費者的態度。

What we do know historically is uncertainty definitely creates cautiousness.

從歷史上我們所知道的是，不確定性肯定會產生謹慎。

The greater the certainty, the less cautious they'll be.

確定性越大，他們就越不謹慎。

But having said that, it would be too early for us to make any additional comments.

但話雖如此，我們現在發表任何其他評論還為時過早。

The next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

Going back to your yield guidance for 2020, the minus 1.5%.

回到 2020 年的收益率指導，負 1.5%。

Have you tried to account for any negative effect from the election or maybe even any positive contribution from some of the additional marketing spend that you have for this year going into next year?

您是否試圖解釋選舉的任何負面影響，或者甚至可能來自今年到明年的一些額外營銷支出的任何積極貢獻？

And then you called out some booking improvement in the last 8 weeks.

然後您在過去 8 週內提出了一些預訂改進。

Can you just talk about what's changed in the environment over that time period?

你能談談這段時間裡環境發生了什麼變化嗎？

Is that comment of improved bookings more specific to the Caribbean and Bahamas, post Dorian or more broad-based?

改進預訂的評論是否更具體到加勒比和巴哈馬，多利安之後或更廣泛？

You bet.

你打賭。

And concerning [yield], it is pre wave.

而關於[產量]，它是前波。

We have a number of initiatives in our guidance.

我們的指導中有許多舉措。

We have not factored in dramatic shifts in consumer attitude, positive or negative.

我們沒有考慮到消費者態度的巨大變化，無論是積極的還是消極的。

And that relates also to election time.

這也與選舉時間有關。

We do know historically, elections can create uncertainty.

從歷史上看，我們確實知道，選舉會產生不確定性。

And so in our guidance right now, we've just taken an approach that things will trend the way they are.

因此，在我們現在的指導中，我們剛剛採取了一種方法，事情會按照它們的方式發展。

But hopefully, with the investments we've made, perhaps, we've obviously made them intending to drive some change, but it's too early.

但希望通過我們所做的投資，我們顯然已經讓他們打算推動一些改變，但現在還為時過早。

Concerning, yes, bookings...

關於，是的，預訂...

And -- yes, concerning bookings, just keep in mind, we pointed out the last 8 weeks because we also mentioned that the beginning of the quarter, booking trends were impacted by the hurricane.

而且 - 是的，關於預訂，請記住，我們指出了過去 8 週，因為我們還提到本季度初，預訂趨勢受到颶風的影響。

And so as a result of that, I think we've said many times, we do see a little bit of a blip when something like that happens and then it bounces right back.

因此，我想我們已經說過很多次了，當類似的事情發生時，我們確實看到了一點點信號，然後它馬上反彈回來。

And that's basically what happened during the fourth quarter.

這基本上就是第四季度發生的事情。

Okay.

好的。

So is that primarily Caribbean Bahamas that's driving that improved bookings?

那麼主要是加勒比巴哈馬推動預訂量的增加嗎？

Or would you view that as more broad-based?

或者你會認為這是更廣泛的基礎嗎？

In terms of volumes, we did see volumes during that 8-week period up in a number of areas, but the big driver was the Caribbean.

就銷量而言，我們確實在這 8 週期間看到許多地區的銷量有所上升，但最大的推動力是加勒比地區。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just as I look at your guidance for next year, you're implying minimal earnings growth into next year with a fairly sizable amount of CapEx.

然後，正如我查看您對明年的指導一樣，您暗示明年的收入增長很小，資本支出相當可觀。

I think the implication would be that ROIC is going to contract in 2020.

我認為這意味著ROIC將在2020年收縮。

That would seem to be driven by the older hardware.

這似乎是由舊硬件驅動的。

I think obviously, the newer hardware is getting better returns that's coming online, presumably.

我認為顯然，較新的硬件正在獲得更好的回報，大概是上線了。

So my question is, are all the ships in your fleet, particularly the older ones, are they earning your cost of capital right now?

所以我的問題是，你們船隊中的所有船隻，尤其是老船，現在都在賺取您的資本成本嗎？

And what do you view your cost of capital to be?

你認為你的資本成本是多少？

I would say, of all the ships that we have in the fleet are earning and those that are not are either about to be exited of their plans.

我想說，在我們艦隊中的所有船隻中，我們正在賺取收入，而那些沒有收入的船隻要么即將退出他們的計劃。

And so the bulk of the fleet earns well.

因此，大部分機隊的收入都不錯。

And -- go ahead, David.

並且 - 繼續，大衛。

So generally speaking, if you do a mathematical calculation, our weighted average cost of capital is probably about 8.5%.

所以一般來說，如果你做一個數學計算，我們的加權平均資本成本大概是8.5%左右。

But we look at it very differently because our expectation is for double-digit return on invested capital over time and elevated ROIC.

但我們對它的看法非常不同，因為我們的預期是隨著時間的推移，投資資本的兩位數回報和更高的投資回報率。

So when we look at investments, we're looking at hurdle rates significantly higher than our weighted average cost of capital.

因此，當我們查看投資時，我們看到的障礙率明顯高於我們的加權平均資本成本。

I think with regard to return on invested capital, the primary driver is the source market, so the brand itself in the source market.

我認為在投資回報率方面，主要的驅動力是客源市場，所以品牌本身在客源市場。

Secondarily, would probably be itinerary and the third might be age, if I had to weight them.

其次，可能是行程，第三可能是年齡，如果我必須權衡它們的話。

Yes, age is a big driver.

是的，年齡是一個很大的驅動因素。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Just one quick housekeeping.

只需一個快速的家政服務。

What date did you mark your fuel guidance?

您在哪一天標記了燃油指南？

Yes.

是的。

As we indicated in the press release, it was December 6.

正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，那是 12 月 6 日。

The next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Great.

偉大的。

You guys have been very clear about the challenge really coming from Continental Europe.

你們非常清楚真正來自歐洲大陸的挑戰。

And I know that you historically don't give guidance for yields by brand or by region.

而且我知道您歷來不會按品牌或地區為產量提供指導。

But I wonder if -- just to -- for -- to make it easier for investors to compare sort of across the industry, can you give us a little bit more insight into what your North American yield expectations are?

但我想知道是否 - 只是為了 - 為了 - 為了讓投資者更容易比較整個行業，你能否讓我們更深入地了解你的北美收益率預期是什麼？

Just because I think we probably see some positive underlying yield performance there that maybe we can't see with the Continental European drag, and it just might be helpful if you can put some color around that.

僅僅因為我認為我們可能會在那裡看到一些積極的潛在收益率表現，而這可能是我們在歐洲大陸拖累時看不到的，如果你能在它周圍加上一些顏色可能會有所幫助。

Robin, nice try.

羅賓，不錯的嘗試。

But as you know, we don't give guidance going forward at this time.

但如您所知，我們目前不提供指導。

And we're pre wave, et cetera, and we just don't do it.

我們是前波，等等，我們只是不這樣做。

Yes.

是的。

I mean it's fair to say that we do expect the NAA brands to do better than the EA brands.

我的意思是公平地說，我們確實希望 NAA 品牌比 EA 品牌做得更好。

Right.

正確的。

For 2019, the actuals, as you could see, it was 0.8% increase for NAA and EA was down 1.7%.

如您所見，2019 年的實際情況是，NAA 增長了 0.8%，EA 下降了 1.7%。

Okay.

好的。

And I guess maybe just -- I mean, mathematically, we missed the color that you gave on the last 8 weeks with volume being higher and price flat.

我想也許只是 - 我的意思是，從數學上講，我們錯過了你在過去 8 週給出的顏色，因為數量更高而價格持平。

Unless there's some change in the environment from the last 8 weeks that would suggest that things are trending positively in terms of how bookings are coming in now, last 8 weeks and sort of where we are now that directionally if your volume is up and your prices in line, it seems like there would be positive yield following that, tempered by the fact that you obviously had bookings on there from before the last 8 weeks and the future cruise credits that you talked about and the continental issues that were in what's on the books already.

除非過去 8 週的環境發生了一些變化，這表明事情在現在的預訂情況方面呈積極趨勢，過去 8 週以及我們現在所處的位置，如果您的數量和價格都在上升的話順理成章，這之後似乎會有積極的收益，但由於您顯然在過去 8 週之前在那裡進行了預訂，以及您談到的未來郵輪積分以及大陸問題，這一事實有所緩和。書已經。

But I mean, directionally, last 8 weeks and forward, it sounds like what's coming in is in positive territory.

但我的意思是，從方向上講，過去 8 週及以後，這聽起來像是在積極的領域。

Is that mathematically fair to conclude?

從數學上得出這樣的結論是否公平？

That's mathematically fair, but I will say, it's 52 weeks in a year, that's 8 weeks, and there's a lot left to go and wave season hasn't even started.

這在數學上是公平的，但我會說，一年有 52 週，也就是 8 週，還有很多事情要做，而且波浪季節還沒有開始。

So I just caution you, we'll take every positive, but I just caution you, we got a lot left to go, and we're working very hard with all the initiatives that Arnold mentioned to impact the results.

所以我只是提醒你，我們會採取一切積極措施，但我只是提醒你，我們還有很多工作要做，我們正在努力實施阿諾德提到的所有舉措以影響結果。

Positive.

積極的。

The next question comes from line of Harry Curtis with Instinet.

下一個問題來自 Harry Curtis 與 Instinet 的對話。

Two quick questions.

兩個快速的問題。

So for the year, your -- in 2019, your SG&A was up 1.2%.

因此，在 2019 年，您的 SG&A 增長了 1.2%。

How do you see that trending for next year?

您如何看待明年的趨勢？

It sounds like that focus on marketing is going to lift that percentage increase somewhat, and I'm trying to get a sense of -- a better sense of what that might look like.

聽起來，對營銷的關注將在一定程度上提高該百分比的增長，我試圖了解 - 更好地了解這可能會是什麼樣子。

I'll have David give you the actual percentage.

我會讓大衛給你實際的百分比。

Yes.

是的。

While they look it up real quickly, what we've done is that we have the sourcing savings that we generate, and we choose to either pass something to bottom line and invest others.

雖然他們很快就查到了，但我們所做的是我們擁有我們產生的採購節省，我們選擇要么將某些東西傳遞給底線，然後再投資其他人。

And we just, as I mentioned in my call notes, we've been very rigorous and getting more efficient, whether it's media spend, whether it's the digital buys, et cetera.

正如我在電話會議記錄中提到的那樣，我們一直非常嚴格並且越來越高效，無論是媒體支出，還是數字購買等等。

So we've actually been able to increase our share of voice and without a direct correlated increase in costs.

因此，我們實際上已經能夠增加我們的發言權份額，而沒有直接相關的成本增加。

But yes, we are spending more.

但是，是的，我們正在花費更多。

Yes.

是的。

And I know you're probably looking at the as-reported P&L when you give that percentages.

而且我知道當您給出百分比時，您可能正在查看報告的損益表。

Remember, those are in current dollars, not constant currency.

請記住，這些是當前美元，而不是固定貨幣。

But to answer your question on advertising from '18 to '19, advertising was up double digits in constant currency.

但是要回答您關於 18 年到 19 年廣告的問題，按固定匯率計算，廣告增長了兩位數。

All right.

好的。

And you would expect that as well in 2020?

你會期望在 2020 年也是如此嗎？

We're not giving detailed guidance on advertising alone, just that the net cruise cost per ALBD is flat.

我們並沒有單獨提供關於廣告的詳細指導，只是每個 ALBD 的淨巡航成本是持平的。

And then moving on to your CapEx.

然後轉向您的資本支出。

I just wanted to check, are you still for 2020 and '21 looking at about $5.5 billion each year?

我只是想檢查一下，您是否還在 2020 年和 21 年每年查看約 55 億美元？

Yes.

是的。

Well, there was a shift in the timing of the delivery schedule.

嗯，交貨時間表的時間發生了變化。

So as a result of that, we had originally talked about CapEx in 2019 being over $6 billion, but that came down to 5.4% because of the late delivery of the Costa Smeralda.

因此，我們最初談到 2019 年的資本支出超過 60 億美元，但由於 Costa Smeralda 交付較晚，這一數字下降到 5.4%。

So now what we're looking at for 2020 is $7 billion, and for 2021, $5.7 billion and 2022, $5.2 billion.

所以現在我們正在尋找 2020 年的 70 億美元，2021 年為 57 億美元，2022 年為 52 億美元。

Okay.

好的。

And can you give us a sense of how much of that is renovation CapEx and maintenance CapEx?

您能否告訴我們其中有多少是翻新資本支出和維護資本支出？

So it's -- all of the non-new-build CapEx is roughly $2 billion, give or take.

所以它 - 所有非新建資本支出大約是 20 億美元，給予或接受。

That includes renovation, shore side, ports, destination development and everything.

這包括翻新、岸邊、港口、目的地開發和一切。

Okay.

好的。

And that'll be fairly constant looking ahead to '20 and '21?

展望 20 年和 21 年，這將是相當穩定的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The next question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Steve Wieczynski 和 Stifel 的台詞。

So if I -- if we strip out the 0.5% impacts that you guys are talking about for hardware mix and then delays with some of your ships as well, obviously, that's kind of on a like-for-like basis, you're kind of guiding down about 0.5%.

所以如果我——如果我們去掉你們談論的硬件組合的 0.5% 影響，然後你們的一些船也有延遲，顯然，這是在類似的基礎上，你是引導下跌約0.5%。

Am I thinking about -- and maybe I'm going crazy here, but I think you guys have talked about that you've embedded typically at the start of each year something in your guidance for other things to go wrong.

我是否在考慮——也許我在這裡要瘋了，但我想你們已經談到，你們通常在每年年初的時候在指導中嵌入了一些東西，以防其他事情出錯。

Is that fair for this year as well?

今年也公平嗎？

Meaning, that like-for-like down 5% yield guidance, do you have some cushion there for other potential events?

意思是，類似下降 5% 的收益率指導，您是否為其他潛在事件提供了一些緩衝？

I wouldn't call it cushion, but yes, we do include in our guidance for things that go wrong.

我不會稱之為緩衝，但是是的，我們確實在我們的指導中包含了出錯的事情。

And as you can see already this year, we're like barely a month into it, and a number of things have.

正如你今年已經看到的那樣，我們才剛剛進入一個月，而且很多事情已經完成。

So we always included in our guidance an expectation for unusual events.

所以我們總是在我們的指導中包含對不尋常事件的期望。

In '19, we had it included as well.

在 19 年，我們也將其包括在內。

And as you can see from all the results in '19 with the extraordinary number of unusual events and the heavy hit from Europe, which was unexpected, we missed original guidance net of currency by only $0.10, and so we do factor in because things happen.

正如您從 19 年的所有結果中所看到的那樣，異常事件的數量異常多，並且來自歐洲的沉重打擊，這是出乎意料的，我們錯過了最初的淨貨幣指導僅 0.10 美元，所以我們確實考慮了，因為事情發生了.

Okay.

好的。

Got you.

得到你。

And then I want to ask about your fuel guidance for this year.

然後我想問一下你們今年的燃料指導。

And it looks like there's around a $300 million delta in your fuel guidance today versus when you gave kind of soft guidance back in September.

與您在 9 月份給出的軟性指導相比，您今天的燃油指導似乎有大約 3 億美元的增量。

I just want to understand what changed so much there over the last 3 months?

我只是想了解在過去 3 個月裡發生瞭如此大的變化？

So back in September, we used the current prices for HFO and -- as well as MGO and everything else.

因此，早在 9 月份，我們就使用了 HFO 和 - 以及 MGO 和其他所有產品的當前價格。

But as we talked back in September, a lot of people were pointing out that the forward curve for HFO was a lot lower than the current price.

但正如我們在 9 月份的談話中，很多人指出 HFO 的遠期曲線遠低於當前價格。

And we did not, at that time, speculate that, that would happen, but it has, in fact, happened.

我們當時並沒有推測這會發生，但事實上它已經發生了。

HFO has come down considerably, and that is now reflected in our current fuel guidance.

HFO 已經大幅下降，這現在反映在我們當前的燃料指南中。

And that represents 50% to 55% of our consumption.

這占我們消費量的 50% 到 55%。

Okay.

好的。

Got you.

得到你。

And then one other thing we get a lot of questions about or gotten a lot of questions about recently is just as we kind of go into 2020 with the scrubber technology and stuff like that.

然後另一件事我們最近收到很多問題或收到很多問題，就像我們進入 2020 年使用洗滌器技術和類似的東西一樣。

And I just want to make sure you guys feel like you're in a pretty good spot at this point as we head into next year.

我只是想確保你們覺得在我們進入明年的這一點上你們處於一個相當不錯的位置。

And I think one of the concerns out there is obviously around kind of this open versus closed-loop type of technology.

我認為其中一個問題顯然是圍繞這種開環與閉環類型的技術。

I just want to make sure you guys feel pretty comfortable that your open-loop technology at some point won't be a headwind moving forward.

我只是想確保你們覺得你們的開環技術在某些時候不會成為前進的逆風。

Yes.

是的。

First of all, just with open loop to put things in context, that's in port, you're talking 10% of what we use.

首先，只需使用開環將事物置於上下文中，即在端口中，您所說的是我們使用的 10%。

And even with that, only a few ports have taken a hard position against open loop.

即便如此，只有少數端口對開環採取了強硬立場。

So at this point, those positions are immaterial in terms of our earnings results.

因此，在這一點上，就我們的盈利結果而言，這些職位並不重要。

But more importantly than that, we feel strongly open loop is a real plus from an environmental standpoint as an advanced air quality system technology.

但更重要的是，我們強烈認為開環作為一種先進的空氣質量系統技術，從環境角度來看是一個真正的優勢。

And so we're doing the work to ensure that we educate ports around the world.

因此，我們正在努力確保我們對世界各地的港口進行教育。

So open loop is available for use.

所以開環可以使用。

Even if it wasn't, which is not going to happen, but even if it wasn't, you're talking about 10% of the fuel use.

即使不是，這也不會發生，但即使不是，你說的是 10% 的燃料使用。

And there are many ports that already have bought into the fact that open loop is excellent advance air quality approach.

許多港口已經接受了這樣一個事實，即開環是一種出色的先進空氣質量方法。

The next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 James Hardiman。

So wanted to circle back to this idea that you had about 100 basis points of headwinds between the brand mix and some of the ship delays.

所以想回到這個想法，你在品牌組合和一些船舶延誤之間有大約 100 個基點的阻力。

So if I think about that underlying 50 basis points, can you maybe walk me through how to think about that over the course of the year?

因此，如果我考慮一下潛在的 50 個基點，您能否指導我在一年中如何考慮這一點？

I would assume that the Mardi Gras impact is a late year sort of an impact to yield.

我認為狂歡節的影響是對產量的一種影響。

I'm guessing that, that would also be the case with respect to brand.

我猜想，在品牌方面也是如此。

I guess what I'm trying to get at is, if I think about that underlying growth number with respect to yields, is that actually accelerating over the course of the year based on the way you're guiding?

我想我想要得到的是，如果我考慮與收益率相關的潛在增長數字，那麼根據你的指導方式，這實際上是否會在一年中加速？

So it varies by quarter.

因此，它因季度而異。

So for the first quarter, which I happen to have the numbers in detail because we gave guidance, the impact of the unusual events is probably a little bit less than half, but the mix impact, the brand mix impact is a little bit greater than 1/2 and it still turns out to be, in total, about 1% for the first quarter as it is 1% for the full year.

所以對於第一季度，我碰巧有詳細的數字，因為我們給出了指導，異常事件的影響可能略低於一半，但組合影響，品牌組合影響略大於1/2，但總體而言，第一季度仍然約為 1%，因為全年為 1%。

I don't happen to have the 2 through 4Q numbers handy.

我碰巧手邊沒有 2 到 4Q 的數字。

But if you get back to Beth, she can give you more detail.

但如果你回到貝絲那裡，她可以給你更多細節。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then the commentary on working shipyards to moderate some of the ships you have planned.

然後是關於工作造船廠以緩和您計劃的一些船隻的評論。

Maybe -- I was hoping you could get into a little bit more depth there.

也許——我希望你能更深入一點。

What can realistically be done?

實際可以做什麼？

And how quickly can it be done?

並且可以多快完成？

So we're obviously in conversations with the yard, but when you have prototypes like we have with Smeralda, the situation is that historically, we've had occasional delays with prototypes.

因此，我們顯然正在與船廠進行對話，但是當您擁有像我們與 Smeralda 一樣的原型時，歷史上的情況是，我們偶爾會延遲原型。

But we're with the yard, working with the yard and are in the process of negotiating what we need to do to ensure their future deliveries on time.

但我們與船廠合作，與船廠合作，並正在協商我們需要做的事情，以確保他們未來的交貨準時。

No, I guess I was speaking more towards the slowing of ships being built.

不，我想我更多地是在談論正在建造的船隻的放緩。

Is that not sort of what you're aiming to do just given the environment?

考慮到環境，這不是你想要做的嗎？

Or did I read that wrong?

還是我讀錯了？

Not so much the slowing of ships being built.

與其說是建造船舶的速度放緩。

We do have capacity plans over time, that are going to be less capacity.

隨著時間的推移，我們確實有容量計劃，但容量會減少。

But we are a -- we're currently in a lot of discussions with the shipyards.

但我們是——我們目前正在與造船廠進行大量討論。

So let us continue those discussions and let us get back to you when we have more announcements.

因此，讓我們繼續這些討論，並在有更多公告時回复您。

We should get this done by the end.

我們應該在最後完成這件事。

We hopefully -- yes, we'll get it done by the end of January.

我們希望 - 是的，我們將在 1 月底之前完成它。

Okay.

好的。

And then just lastly for me.

最後對我來說。

I think, as we think about the European consumer being the primary headwind here, can you quantify your exposure to that consumer?

我認為，當我們認為歐洲消費者是這裡的主要不利因素時，你能量化你對那個消費者的影響嗎？

I think you talked about a 30% number-ish for 2019.

我認為您談到了 2019 年 30% 的數字。

Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts for 2020.

顯然，2020 年有很多活動的部分。

That number is still about 30%?

這個數字仍然是 30% 左右？

Or is the movement of costs, does that bring that down a little bit?

或者是成本的變動，這會降低一點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's -- I don't actually, for '19, have the numbers handy.

這是 - 實際上，對於 19 年，我沒有手邊的數字。

I think sourcing-wise, in terms of sourcing guests across all of our brands, I think it's about 50% source from...

我認為採購方面，就我們所有品牌的客戶採購而言，我認為大約 50% 來自……

Outside the U.S.

美國以外

Outside the U.S., right.

在美國以外，對。

Yes.

是的。

Europe is about low 30s.

歐洲大約是 30 多歲。

Yes.

是的。

And that hasn't changed, 2020 versus 2019?

這並沒有改變，2020 年與 2019 年？

Correct.

正確的。

But I'm actually talking, when I say 30%, it's more revenue-wise and guests.

但我實際上是在說，當我說 30% 時，它更多的是收入和客人。

Yes.

是的。

That's revenue.

那就是收入。

That's not -- yes.

那不是——是的。

I was...

我曾是...

Okay.

好的。

But the revenue is -- what the exposure is the revenue rise.

但是收入是——收入增加的風險是什麼。

Right.

正確的。

The next question comes from the line of Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

下一個問題來自 Infinity Research 的 Assia Georgieva。

I wondered whether if we look towards Q3 and Q4, having the seasonal markets, and hopefully, Europe -- Continental Europe coming better than it has in 2019, should we see, again, the cadence of yield slightly increase relative to what we're looking at in Q1?

我想知道如果我們展望第三季度和第四季度，擁有季節性市場，並希望歐洲——歐洲大陸的情況比 2019 年更好，我們是否應該再次看到收益率相對於我們的情況略有增加看Q1？

So I guess, your big assumption there is that Continental Europe coming back and doing better.

所以我想，你的主要假設是歐洲大陸回來並做得更好。

We are not necessarily assuming.

我們不一定假設。

We're just assuming a continuation of the current trends in Continental Europe.

我們只是假設歐洲大陸當前趨勢的延續。

And Arnold talked about the overconcentration of supply in Alaska and the capacity increase in the third quarter and -- for us in the industry.

阿諾德談到了阿拉斯加供應的過度集中和第三季度的產能增加，以及——對於我們這個行業的人來說。

And as a result of that, we...

因此，我們...

And David, that is why I didn't mention Alaska.

大衛，這就是為什麼我沒有提到阿拉斯加。

Yes.

是的。

We guess, as you could see, as I said before, yield guidance for the rest of the year is similar to the first quarter and the full year, in total for the 3 quarters.

正如我之前所說，我們猜想，今年剩餘時間的收益率指導與第一季度和全年相似，總共三個季度。

Now with that said, we're working hard.

話雖如此，我們正在努力工作。

We have a lot of programs in place.

我們有很多計劃。

And remember that fourth quarter is also hurricane season.

請記住，第四季度也是颶風季節。

I do know that, given that we experience it every 2 years.

我確實知道這一點，因為我們每兩年都會經歷一次。

In terms of Q4, this was a perfect segue.

就第四季度而言，這是一個完美的轉場。

Mardi Gras being delayed and now being 2021 new build the capacity addition, and Arnold, I kind of suspect Q4 having something to do with the name of the ship.

狂歡節被推遲，現在是 2021 年新增產能，而阿諾德，我有點懷疑 Q4 與船名有關。

Wouldn't the shipyards provide compensation both for Smeralda and the Mardi Gras delay where they can offset some of the lost revenue and additional costs that you have incurred?

難道造船廠不會為 Smeralda 和 Mardi Gras 的延誤提供補償，以抵消您所產生的一些收入損失和額外成本嗎？

Generally speaking, there is settlements with the yard.

一般來說，院子裡都有定居點。

Unfortunately, those go into our balance sheet, whatever they are, and so they don't show up in the income statement.

不幸的是，無論它們是什麼，它們都會進入我們的資產負債表，因此它們不會出現在損益表中。

So from a shareholder's standpoint, we're often able to balance the operating income hit through the overall value of the firm, but it doesn't show up in the income statement.

因此，從股東的角度來看，我們通常能夠通過公司的整體價值來平衡營業收入，但它不會出現在損益表中。

The next question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Stephen Grambling。

One quick follow-up.

快速跟進。

What are the expected proceeds from the 2 asset sales?

2 資產出售的預期收益是多少？

Do you expect a gain on these?

您期望在這些方面有所收穫嗎？

And were they cash flow positive?

他們的現金流是正數嗎？

When you say -- you talk about the 2 ships we just announced, the sale in 2020?

當你說 - 你談論我們剛剛宣布的 2 艘船，2020 年的銷售？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, those will be announced over time, but you're talking -- I mean you're not talking about -- with a company that's got $5.5 billion to $6 billion of cash flow, that's not going to significantly move the needle if we sell 2 ships.

我的意思是，這些將隨著時間的推移而公佈，但你說的是——我的意思是你不是在說——一家擁有 55 億到 60 億美元現金流的公司，如果我們賣 2 艘船。

It's a small gain.

這是一個小小的收穫。

It's a small gain.

這是一個小小的收穫。

Yes.

是的。

And will those effectively go into noncompeting markets?

這些會有效地進入非競爭市場嗎？

Are they going out of service?

他們會停止服務嗎？

No.

不。

They're not going out of service.

他們不會停止服務。

We sold them to another cruise company.

我們把它們賣給了另一家郵輪公司。

But generally speaking, when we sell ships, they go to tour operators and other operators that don't have our brands and are selling to different source markets and different types of product.

但一般來說，當我們賣船時，他們會去旅遊經營者和其他沒有我們品牌的經營者，並銷售到不同的客源市場和不同類型的產品。

So our belief is, hopefully, they continue to expand and grow the market with their capacity as we do with our new builds.

因此，我們的信念是，希望他們能夠繼續擴大和發展市場，就像我們對新建築所做的那樣。

The next question comes from the line of Tim Conder with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的蒂姆康德。

Wanted to circle back, Arnold.

想繞回來，阿諾德。

I know, again, the capacity -- the rate of capacity growth that you all had in Germany and then the rate of capacity growth that some other competitors are doing predominantly in the Med, that has been a challenge, but you can still grow earnings yet the pricing headwinds.

我再次知道產能——你們所有人在德國的產能增長率，以及其他一些競爭對手主要在地中海地區的產能增長率，這是一個挑戰，但你仍然可以增加收入然而，定價逆風。

Any -- I know this is a difficult question to answer, but when do you see the ability to maybe stabilize pricing in Europe?

任何——我知道這是一個很難回答的問題，但你什麼時候能看到穩定歐洲定價的能力？

Then, I guess, kind of taking a little derivative of that in Alaska.

然後，我想，在阿拉斯加有點衍生。

It appeared that you all ceded price, your competitors largely gained price.

看起來你們都放棄了價格，你的競爭對手在很大程度上獲得了價格。

And yet you have, as you mentioned, and David's mentioned before also, you have a very great asset on the land side.

然而，正如你所提到的，大衛之前也提到過，你在土地方面擁有非常大的資產。

What kind of -- should we anticipate over the next couple of years the ability to grow that as that would help your yield mix?

什麼樣的——我們應該在接下來的幾年裡預測增長的能力，因為這將有助於你的收益組合？

And that's kind of, I guess, been a little bit of a headwind both in '18 and '19.

我猜，這在 18 和 19 年都有點逆風。

Yes.

是的。

I'll give you an answer directly to your question, and then I think we want to just talk you through the capacity plans going forward for the next few years.

我將直接回答您的問題，然後我想我們只想與您討論未來幾年的容量計劃。

I'll let David do that.

我會讓大衛這樣做。

But in general, we focus on earnings growth and return on invested capital.

但總的來說，我們關注收益增長和投資資本回報。

And so generally speaking, for us collectively as the corporation to get that, ultimately, we'll need a little yield growth given the capital we're employing to build these new ships.

所以一般來說，對於我們作為公司的集體來說，最終，考慮到我們用來建造這些新船的資金，我們需要一點收益增長。

And so we don't necessarily need a lot of yield growth, but we do need yield growth to get to the level of earnings growth we'd like to have and to get the elevated return on invested capital that we know is inherently capable in our business model.

因此，我們不一定需要大量的收益率增長，但我們確實需要收益率增長才能達到我們想要的收益增長水平，並獲得我們所知道的固有的投資資本回報率我們的商業模式。

So with that in mind, if you look at Europe, again, what we've done in the guidance is simply projected the trends to continue.

因此，考慮到這一點，如果你再看看歐洲，我們在指南中所做的只是預測趨勢將繼續下去。

Now we're doing everything we can from a marketing standpoint, from a management standpoint, to try to deliver against that kind of an environment.

現在，從營銷的角度，從管理的角度來看，我們正在盡我們所能，試圖在這種環境下提供服務。

If that environment changes, then clearly, it's a tailwind.

如果環境發生變化，那麼顯然，這是順風。

If the environment worsens, obviously, would be a headwind to state the obvious.

如果環境惡化，顯然，這將是一個明顯的不利因素。

But I think over time, it's going to be a combination because there are cycles, as you know, that's going to be a combination of the macro environment and our continued ability, and for example, in the case of Costa, to replace the less-efficient capacity, which is what we're in the process of doing, and we have now accelerated that with much more efficient capacity, which in the case of Costa Smeralda, for example.

但我認為隨著時間的推移，這將是一個組合，因為有一些週期，正如你所知，這將是宏觀環境和我們持續能力的組合，例如，在科斯塔的情況下，替換較少的- 高效產能，這是我們正在做的事情，我們現在已經通過更高效的產能加速了這一進程，例如在翡翠海岸的情況下。

And so that's the plan.

這就是計劃。

We're accelerating that process for Costa, and we believe that's going to give us elevated over time return on invested capital and earnings growth.

我們正在為 Costa 加快這一進程，我們相信這將使我們隨著時間的推移提高投資資本回報率和收益增長。

In the case of AIDA, which is in a very strong market, it's already one of the highest return brands we have and have been able to absorb a substantial amount of capacity in what otherwise would be a down overall travel market, we feel very confident about AIDA's ability to perform in terms of growing earnings and ultimately growing return on invested capital, although they have a very high return on invested capital now.

以 AIDA 為例，它處於非常強勁的市場，它已經是我們擁有的回報率最高的品牌之一，並且能夠在整體旅遊市場低迷的情況下吸收大量容量，我們感到非常有信心關於 AIDA 在收入增長和最終投資資本回報率增長方面的表現，儘管他們現在的投資資本回報率非常高。

David, you might want to give the forward capacity comments?

大衛，你可能想給前鋒能力評論？

Sure.

當然。

Yes, so just looking at our total capacity increase next year is 6.6%.

是的，所以看看我們明年的總產能增加了 6.6%。

If you break that out by segment, the EA segment is up 8.4% and the NAA segment is up 5.5%.

如果按細分市場細分，EA 細分市場上漲 8.4%，NAA 細分市場上漲 5.5%。

If you look at it by program, the Caribbean is kind of flattish.

如果你按程序來看，加勒比地區有點平淡。

It's only up by like 1%.

它僅上漲了1％左右。

Europe is up double digits.

歐洲上漲了兩位數。

Alaska is up almost 9% and all the other markets are up double digits.

阿拉斯加上漲了近 9%，所有其他市場都上漲了兩位數。

So -- and that gets back to the 6.6%.

所以 - 這又回到了 6.6%。

Yes.

是的。

And then with Alaska, also I just want to point out that over time, we've had periods in other markets where we've had a very overconcentration of supply.

然後關於阿拉斯加，我也只想指出，隨著時間的推移，我們在其他市場有過供應過度集中的時期。

Banged against the wall, we'll settle out there.

撞在牆上，我們會在那里安頓下來。

And as I said, we're growing profitably there.

正如我所說，我們在那裡盈利增長。

And we expect that to continue.

我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

And eventually, you'll probably see a little yield lift over time.

最終，隨著時間的推移，您可能會看到收益率略有提升。

On the Alaska side, should we also anticipate -- again, you may be bulking up a little on the land tour side, given your dominance there, and how that should help the mix?

在阿拉斯加方面，我們是否也應該預料到 - 再次，鑑於您在那裡的主導地位，您可能會在陸地旅遊方面增加一點，這應該如何幫助混合？

We continue to invest in our properties there.

我們繼續在那裡投資我們的房產。

We're limited in total expansion just because of the nature of Alaska.

由於阿拉斯加的性質，我們的總體擴張受到限制。

But we are very happy.

但是我們非常高興。

We have our joint venture with -- in Skagway, for example, with the railroad.

我們與 - 例如在史凱威與鐵路建立了合資企業。

So we look for ways to expand our offerings that would overall help drive yield and additional profits.

因此，我們尋找方法來擴展我們的產品，從而總體上有助於提高產量和額外利潤。

But it won't be able to grow at the rate that we've grown overall capacity there.

但它無法以我們在那裡增加整體容量的速度增長。

Okay.

好的。

And then on fuel, 2 last questions here on fuel.

然後關於燃料，最後兩個關於燃料的問題。

The -- in the third quarter call, you mentioned that, that mix of MGO would gravitate up from the anticipated 33%, 35% area to 40% in 2020, given IMO.

你在第三季度的電話會議中提到，鑑於 IMO，MGO 的組合將從 2020 年預期的 33%、35% 區域上升到 40%。

And then today, you're saying 40% to 45%.

然後今天，你說的是 40% 到 45%。

What's driving those changes?

是什麼推動了這些變化？

Is it maybe some delays in getting scrubbers on, the timing of delivery of some of the LNG ships?

是否可能會延遲啟動洗滌器，交付一些液化天然氣船的時間？

Is it the -- those 10% of ports that are focused only on the closed-loop?

是不是——那 10% 的端口只關注閉環？

Just a little more color on that.

只是多一點顏色。

Yes.

是的。

It's itinerary plan.

是行程計劃。

It's definitely not the 10% of ports or whatever, it's definitely not that.

絕對不是 10% 的端口之類的，絕對不是。

It's simply refining that itinerary plan.

它只是在完善該行程計劃。

Okay.

好的。

And then lastly, David, on leverage, just maybe any changes or just remind us of your targeted comfort leverage range?

最後，大衛，在槓桿方面，也許有任何變化，或者只是提醒我們你的目標舒適槓桿範圍？

So we finished the year at 2.11% in the debt-to-EBITDA ratio, but that's a bit lower than I probably quoted on an earlier conference call, but that had a lot to do with the delayed delivery of the Costa Smeralda.

因此，我們今年的債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.11%，但這比我在早些時候的電話會議上可能引用的要低一些，但這與 Costa Smeralda 的延遲交付有很大關係。

And so with the ship delay, you also had the debt fall into the -- being drawn in the first quarter.

因此，隨著船舶延誤，您的債務也落入了第一季度的債務中。

And at the end of -- and given the midpoint of our guidance, we would be at 2.34% debt-to-EBITDA leverage in the range of what our target is, is 2x to 2.5x.

最後，考慮到我們指導的中點，我們的債務對 EBITDA 的槓桿率為 2.34%，在我們的目標範圍內，即 2 倍至 2.5 倍。

The next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brandt Montour。

So just one more on Europe, and I just want to sort of dig into how we should kind of think about or how you guys kind of think about the demand side of the local European economies.

所以再談歐洲，我只是想深入探討一下我們應該如何思考，或者你們如何思考當地歐洲經濟體的需求方面。

And a lot of people are looking for reasons.

很多人都在尋找原因。

I've seen some reasons to be more positive on those economies into 2020 and later in 2020.

我已經看到一些理由讓這些經濟體在 2020 年和 2020 年晚些時候更加積極。

And I guess, from your experience and just looking back at history, when we see sort of a troughing and a rebound in those particular economies, how long do you think it usually takes to start seeing some of that impact in your bookings?

我猜，根據您的經驗和回顧歷史，當我們看到這些特定經濟體出現某種低谷和反彈時，您認為通常需要多長時間才能開始看到對您的預訂產生的一些影響？

I wouldn't speculate -- every situation is different.

我不會推測——每種情況都不同。

But what I would tell you is that over time, obviously, we're in the travel business.

但我要告訴你的是，隨著時間的推移，很明顯，我們從事的是旅遊業務。

And we expect travel over time to continue to grow.

我們預計隨著時間的推移旅行將繼續增長。

At any point in time, there could be pockets of consumer confidence, crisis or decline in travel, et cetera, and that happens periodically.

在任何時間點，都可能出現消費者信心不足、危機或旅行下降等情況，而且這種情況會定期發生。

And as I said on the notes, we plan ahead.

正如我在筆記上所說，我們提前計劃。

In this particular case, we planned ahead, and we walked right into a sudden turn in the market that have been robust for many, many years.

在這種特殊情況下，我們提前做好了計劃，然後我們就進入了多年來一直強勁的市場的突然轉變。

And it's still a robust travel market.

它仍然是一個強勁的旅遊市場。

It's just that a decline versus continuing to grow as an overall travel market.

這只是作為一個整體旅遊市場的下降與繼續增長。

It will pass through at some point.

它會在某個時候通過。

Meanwhile, we have to adapt.

同時，我們必須適應。

And again, I just can't say enough about our people in terms of their ability to continue to produce results in that environment.

再說一次，就我們的員工在那種環境中繼續產生成果的能力而言，我不能說太多。

And so we wouldn't speculate on when it will turn in, in our guidance.

因此，在我們的指導下，我們不會推測它何時會出現。

We just assume the trends will continue.

我們只是假設趨勢將繼續下去。

And I just want to point out the obvious.

我只想指出顯而易見的。

When it does start turning in the booking trends because of the -- we're booked well ahead, there is that delayed impact in the actual revenue in the P&L.

當它確實開始轉變預訂趨勢時，因為我們提前預訂了，這會對損益表中的實際收入產生延遲影響。

On the other hand, when it does turn, we're well positioned to take advantage of it.

另一方面，當它確實轉動時，我們可以很好地利用它。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just -- we haven't talked about China at all.

然後只是 - 我們根本沒有談論過中國。

I was curious, your game plan for 2020, if it's going to change at all next year?

我很好奇，你 2020 年的比賽計劃，明年是否會改變？

And maybe just an update on your -- on the charter model and your sort of -- and sort of your mix from your -- from a distribution standpoint there would be helpful.

也許只是更新你的 - 關於包機模型和你的類型 - 以及你的組合 - 從分發的角度來看會有幫助。

Once again, for us, China is a very small percent of our capacity today.

再一次，對我們來說，中國在我們今天的產能中只佔很小的百分比。

We're really focused on our joint venture.

我們真正專注於我們的合資企業。

We're very pleased with our partners there and the progress with that and are looking forward to the first new build in China in 2023.

我們對那裡的合作夥伴及其取得的進展感到非常滿意，並期待 2023 年在中國建造第一座新建築。

But in terms of the market itself, we had a good year in China this year.

但就市場本身而言，今年我們在中國過得很好。

The team's done a great job.

團隊做得很好。

The Costa Venezia is performing very well with all the other ships there.

歌詩達威尼斯號與那裡的所有其他船隻一起表現得非常好。

And so we're looking for a good year in China next year.

所以我們期待明年在中國有一個好年頭。

In terms of the charter model and all that, we continue to get more and more so-called kind of direct business and -- but we are very pleased also with our charter partners in China.

就包機模式和所有這些而言，我們繼續獲得越來越多的所謂直接業務 - 但我們也對我們在中國的包機合作夥伴感到非常滿意。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Happy holidays.

節日快樂。

Very much appreciate your continued interest in the company.

非常感謝您對公司的持續關注。

And be assured that we're looking forward to working hard to continuously elevate our performance.

請放心，我們期待著努力工作以不斷提升我們的業績。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

That does conclude the conference call for today.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。

We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。