康尼格拉食品 (CAG) 2027 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Conagra Brands Q1 fiscal year 27 earnings Q&A conference call.

早安，歡迎參加康尼格拉品牌（Conagra Brands）2027 會計年度第一季（Q1）財報問答電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Please also note, today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Matthew Neisius, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

也請注意，今天的活動將會錄音。此刻，我想把會議交給投資人關係主管 Matthew Neisius。請開始。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Once again, I'm joined this morning by John Brase, our CEO; and Dave Marberger, our CFO. We may be making some forward-looking statements and discussing non-GAAP financial measures during this Q&A session. Please see our earnings release, prepared remarks, presentation materials and filings with the SEC in the Investor Relations section of our website for descriptions of our risk factors, GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations and information on our comparability items.

各位早安，感謝各位加入我們。今天早上再次由我們的執行長 John Brase 與財務長 Dave Marberger 與我一同出席。在本次問答環節中，我們可能會做出某些前瞻性陳述，並討論非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。關於風險因素、GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調節表，以及可比性項目的資訊說明，請參閱我們的財報新聞稿、事先準備的講稿、簡報資料，以及本公司網站投資人關係專區中向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件。

I'll now ask the operator to introduce the first question.

接下來我請接線員介紹第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

Andrew Lazar，巴克萊（Barclays）。

Maybe I want to start out, Conagra is pointing to organic sales in fiscal 2Q to decline 2%, a bit heavier than current consensus. It looks like quarter-to-date, maybe scanner looks to be running maybe closer to flattish. So, I guess, I'm just curious if anything has changed in your 2Q top line outlook and whether it's elasticity or something else that might cause a sequential deceleration or perhaps it's just more prudent planning?

我想先從這裡開始：康尼格拉指出 2027 會計年度第二季（2Q）的有機銷售將下滑 2%，比目前市場共識稍微更弱一些。看起來截至目前為止，或許掃描數據（scanner data）更接近持平。所以我想請教的是，你們對 2Q 營收端的展望是否有任何改變？以及是否是需求彈性或其他因素，可能導致成長動能較前一季放緩？或者這只是更審慎的規劃？

Andrew, let me start, and then I'll turn it over to Dave. But I think in general, the pricing we discussed in the Q4 earnings call is really just hitting the market kind of as we speak. And so I would say in terms of our pricing assumptions, at this point, results are in line with how we planned the year.

Andrew，我先回應，之後再交給 Dave。但我認為整體而言，我們在第四季（Q4）財報電話會議中談到的定價，現在正如你所見，才剛開始真正進入市場。因此，就我們的定價假設而言，目前的結果與我們年初規劃一致。

And I like the word you used, Andrew. I think we've taken a very prudent approach to our elasticity assumptions, and these assumptions remain unchanged, which is really frozen at more of a 2:1 elasticity that we've modeled for the year and Grocery & Snacks at more of a 1:1 elasticity. Now in terms of competitors and followership, I would say we have not assumed any followership in our pricing moves. Obviously, if that happened, there could be some upside to those elasticity assumptions, but we have not modeled that in.

Andrew，我也喜歡你用的那個詞。我認為我們對需求彈性假設採取了非常審慎的做法，而這些假設並未改變；也就是我們全年模型中，冷凍食品（Frozen）採用較偏 2:1 的彈性假設，而雜貨與零食（Grocery & Snacks）則較偏 1:1 的彈性假設。至於競品與跟進（followership），我會說我們並未假設競爭對手會跟進我們的漲價動作。當然，如果真的發生跟進，這些彈性假設可能會有一些上行空間，但我們並未把它納入模型。

And John, just one additional piece of color. So we guided to 2%, down 2% organic for Q2. This contemplates Thanksgiving timing because you have the second-quarter this year versus third-quarter. So we may ship a bit below consumption in the second-quarter because of the seasonal items, may have some more consumption versus shipments. So -- but this -- the 2% is consistent, like John said, with our original planning posture.

John，再補充一點背景。我們對第二季（Q2）的指引是有機成長率下滑 2%。這其中也考量到感恩節時點的影響，因為今年感恩節落在第二季，而去年是在第三季。因此，由於季節性品項的關係，我們第二季的出貨量可能會略低於終端消費量；也就是可能出現消費量高於出貨量的情況。不過，這個 -2% 的假設，如 John 所說，與我們原先的規劃立場一致。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

Peter Galbo，美國銀行（Bank of America）。

Dave, just wanted to touch on the updated inflation guidance for the year, having moved kind of at the higher end of the 5% to 6%. I know you had kind of Q1 inflation in the 5-ish percent range, more towards the low end. But just kind of how you see it pacing over the balance of the year? And maybe just help us think about exit rate. Are we above that 5% to 6% as we get to Q4 and kind of how we might think about it again from a phasing perspective?

Dave，我想談一下你們更新後的全年通膨指引，現在看起來偏向 5% 到 6% 區間的高端。我知道第一季（Q1）的通膨大概在 5% 左右、比較接近區間低端。但想請教你們如何看待今年剩餘期間的通膨節奏？也請協助我們理解一下期末（exit rate）。到第四季（Q4）時是否會高於 5% 到 6%？以及從分期（phasing）的角度，我們應該如何看待？

Yes, Peter, thanks for the question. Let me try to give you a little bit of color here. So as we talked about for Q1, we did have some favorability in proteins relative to our planning. So we're a bit favorable, which drove some of the favorability we saw in Q1. But as we went through Q1, obviously, we've seen an acceleration in inflation around logistics, or transportation costs, really driven by the driver shortage and oil prices as well.

好的，Peter，謝謝你的問題。我試著提供一些背景說明。如同我們在第一季所談到的，相較於我們的規劃，蛋白類原料（proteins）確實有一些有利因素。因此我們略為有利，這也帶動了第一季看到的部分有利差異。但在第一季期間，很明顯地，我們看到物流或運輸成本相關的通膨加速，主要是由司機短缺以及油價所驅動。

So as we forecasted inflation, we're still in that 5% to 6% range for the year. We said towards the higher end of the range. And really, what's happening is the favorability that we've seen in proteins, which we would continue to see is a little bit more than offset by the -- basically the doubling of inflation in transportation versus where we planned it for the year. So it's kind of a trade-off there. In terms of the flow of the year, we would expect -- and we usually don't give this much detail, but I think it's important because I think there's some confusion on this inflation.

因此在我們對通膨的預測上，全年仍落在 5% 到 6% 的區間。我們也提到會偏向區間的高端。實際上發生的情況是：蛋白類原料的有利因素（而且我們預期仍會持續）被運輸通膨的上升所抵銷；運輸通膨相較於我們年初規劃幾乎翻倍。所以這是一種取捨。至於全年節奏，我們預期——我們通常不會提供這麼細的資訊，但我認為這很重要，因為我覺得大家對這個通膨有些困惑。

We would expect our inflation rate in Q2 and Q3 to be higher than Q1 and then to be about the same. And then we expect our Q4 inflation rate to actually be lower than Q3. So that's kind of the flow.

我們預期第二季（Q2）與第三季（Q3）的通膨率會高於第一季（Q1），而且兩季大致相近。接著我們預期第四季（Q4）的通膨率會低於第三季。大致就是這樣的走勢。

And as we sit here today, we have no reason to believe that we wouldn't be wrapping on not just the transportation costs that we're seeing this year, but things like edible oils and kind of our corrugated aluminum. We have a lot of areas where we're still seeing high inflation, which we will have all during fiscal '27. I don't see a reason why we couldn't expect that we would wrap on that. So obviously, we'll have to get closer for that. But I feel like Q4 will be lower than Q3, and we should be wrapping on a lot of these higher inflation categories in our materials when we get into fiscal '28.

以我們今天所掌握的情況來看，我們沒有理由認為明年不會出現基期效應（wrap），不僅是今年看到的運輸成本，還包括食用油，以及瓦楞紙與鋁材等。我們在許多領域仍看到高通膨，而這些高通膨將會貫穿 2027 會計年度。我看不出有什麼理由不能預期我們會在這些項目上出現基期效應。當然，我們還需要更接近那個時間點再確認。但我認為第四季會低於第三季，而且當我們進入 2028 會計年度時，在材料端許多高通膨類別應該會出現基期效應。

David Palmer, Evercore.

David Palmer，Evercore。

I wanted to ask you about the pricing, the acceptance at retail, how much is that a factor into what you're thinking there? Or is your price elasticity modeling just basically a price impact to the consumer in a vacuum of competitors not also pricing? And I have a quick follow-up.

我想問一下定價：在零售端的接受度，這在你們的思考中占了多大因素？或者你們的價格彈性模型基本上是假設在競爭對手沒有同步漲價的真空情境下，單純衡量對消費者的價格影響？我還有一個簡短的追問。

Yes. Thanks for the question. I think in terms of pricing, I kind of go back to my opening comments. I'd really say really in line with our expectations. And so we're really past kind of the customer acceptance of that now.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我認為就定價而言，我會回到我一開始的評論。我會說整體表現確實符合我們的預期。因此，我們現在基本上已經度過客戶接受度的那個階段了。

Pricing is effective in market. And I would tell you that customer acceptance, there was no surprises versus our planning posture. And so that's how I think about pricing as we move forward.

定價已在市場端生效。我可以告訴你，客戶接受度方面並沒有出現任何超出我們規劃立場的意外。因此，這就是我對未來定價的看法。

And then I noticed you had some comments about not repeating a promotion from last year on the Sandwich Bros. brand. Is that the kind of thing that you will be -- we will be seeing throughout the year that there'll be promotions that you see -- that you already see that were not effective from a profitability standpoint? And is that baked into your guidance? And I'll pass it on.

然後我注意到你提到一些評論，關於不再重複去年在 Sandwich Bros. 品牌上的某個促銷活動。這是否代表今年全年我們都會看到類似情況：你們會避免再做那些你們已經看到、從獲利角度來看並不有效的促銷？而這些是否已經納入你們的財測指引之中？我就把問題交給你們。

Yes, great question. And again, I think we continue to look at our promotional dollars through a real ROI mindset. And I think we've been really prudent of saying, "Hey, we're not going to repeat promos that have been dilutive to the company." And I think that's what you're seeing in some of this simplification, really focusing on those high-leverage elements that can bring value to not only the consumer, but also to the shareholders. And so we're going to continue to make that a part of how we operate. But I would tell you, again, everything -- all those assumptions have been embedded into the fiscal year forecast.

是的，問得很好。再說一次，我認為我們會持續以真正的投資報酬率（ROI）思維來檢視我們的促銷費用。而且我們一直很審慎地表示：「嘿，我們不會重複那些對公司具有稀釋效應的促銷。」我想這也是你在部分簡化措施中看到的重點：真正聚焦在那些高槓桿要素，能為消費者帶來價值，同時也能為股東帶來價值。因此，我們會持續把這作為我們營運方式的一部分。但我也要告訴你，再次強調，所有這些假設都已經納入本財年的預測之中。

Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.

Tom Palmer，摩根大通（JPMorgan）。

I wanted to maybe just clarify on your second-quarter expectations. You've got this high single-digit operating margin outlook. Incremental pricing is flowing through. There was the SG&A call out. I just want to make sure I kind of have my arms around the gross margin cadence here.

我想釐清一下你們對第二季的預期。你們給出的營業利益率展望是高個位數。增量定價正在反映出來。也提到了 SG&A 的因素。我只是想確認我對毛利率走勢的節奏是否掌握正確。

Like, is there a step down expected in gross margin as we move into 2Q? Or is this really about the timing of SG&A that swings the margin lower?

例如，隨著進入第二季，毛利率是否預期會出現下滑？還是說這主要是 SG&A 的時點因素，導致利益率看起來較低？

Yes, Tom, let me take that. There's really three drivers. If you would look at where we landed Q1 operating margin, let me just kind of go there at 11.5% for Q1, we said higher single digits for Q2. There's really three drivers. One, as I just mentioned, we expect higher inflation in Q2 versus Q1.

是的，Tom，我來回答。其實主要有三個驅動因素。如果你看我們第一季的營業利益率落點，我先提一下，第一季是 11.5%，而我們對第二季的說法是高個位數。主要有三個驅動因素。第一，如我剛才提到的，我們預期第二季的通膨會高於第一季。

The second piece is the SG&A favorability that we had in Q1. It was roughly $0.03 of our EPS beat. Half of that was a onetime benefit and half of it was timing where it didn't hit in Q1. It's going to hit in Q2. And then the third piece is accelerating our investment in A&P.

第二個部分是第一季 SG&A 的有利因素。大約貢獻了我們 EPS 超預期的 0.03 美元。其中一半是一次性利益，另一半是時點因素，也就是第一季沒有入帳。它會在第二季入帳。第三個部分是我們正在加速對 A&P 的投資。

So we expect to increase A&P as a percentage of net sales to 3% versus 2.3% as it was in Q1. So they're really the three drivers. So you will see a little bit of impact on gross margin from the higher inflation versus Q1.

因此，我們預期 A&P 佔淨銷售額的比重將提高到 3%，相較第一季的 2.3%。所以主要就是這三個驅動因素。因此，相較第一季，由於通膨較高，你會看到毛利率會受到一些影響。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

Alexia Howard，Bernstein。

Great. Could I ask about leverage? So you've talked about the three times being the long-term target, and I think it increased a little bit this quarter to close to four times. I think you're saying that you'll still probably be at four times by the end of the year or you said through fiscal '27, it will remain at this four times. So how quickly do you expect to start on that deleveraging trajectory? And how quickly do you expect to achieve that goal?

很好。我想問一下槓桿比率。你們提到長期目標是 3 倍，我認為本季略有上升，接近 4 倍。我理解你們的意思是年底可能仍會在 4 倍左右，或是你們說到 2027 財年為止都會維持在這個 4 倍水準。那麼你們預期何時會開始走上去槓桿的軌跡？以及你們預期多快能達成該目標？

Alexia, if you start with this year, yes, we said -- we guided to expecting to finish the year at approximately four times on our leverage. We finished Q1 at 3.99 times. That's actually favorable to where we thought. Usually, what will happen in Q1 and Q2 is our leverage will click up because we're very seasonal with our inventory, right, with our seasonal businesses and things like our tomato operations, we build all the inventory in Q1 and Q2.

Alexia，如果從今年開始看，是的，我們說過——我們的指引是預期今年年底槓桿比率大約會在 4 倍。第一季結束時是 3.99 倍。這其實比我們原先想的更有利。通常第一季和第二季會發生的情況是，我們的槓桿會往上跳一些，因為我們的庫存具有很強的季節性，對吧，像是季節性業務以及番茄作業等，我們會在第一季和第二季建立所有庫存。

So obviously, we use cash in the first half and then we have cash inflow in the second half. So that's very normal. So we're still on track with the approximately four times. That -- we don't get specific with this, but it's implied. We do expect to pay down debt in the year for the full year, approximately $250 million of debt paydown is what we would expect for this year. Our target is three times. We are maniacally focused on getting there as soon as possible.

所以很明顯地，我們在上半年會使用現金，而在下半年會有現金流入。這是非常正常的。因此，我們仍然在「約 4 倍」的軌道上。我們不會對此給出非常具體的細節，但其中已隱含了——我們確實預期今年全年會償還債務；以今年來看，我們預期大約會償還 2.5 億美元的債務。我們的目標是 3 倍。我們非常專注於盡快達成。

As we get into fiscal '28, John talked about it, we're focused on improving margins and profitability of this business. So with improved profitability and the dividend adjustment that we made, we feel like we're going to be able to make great progress in fiscal '28 on getting that leverage down. We're not going to give you that number today, but we want to get to three times as soon as possible.

進入 2028 財年時，John 也談到，我們會聚焦於提升這項業務的毛利率與獲利能力。因此，隨著獲利能力改善，以及我們所做的股利調整，我們認為在 2028 財年能在降低槓桿方面取得很大進展。我們今天不會給你那個數字，但我們希望盡快達到 3 倍。

Christopher Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

Christopher Carey，富國證券（Wells Fargo Securities）。

Chris Carey. I wanted to ask about the Snacks portfolio. Can you just give us a sense of maybe where you are on some of the interventions to improve performance? You talked about, I think, popcorn, Slim Jim, what are the expectations more from a volume standpoint as you look forward and perhaps lap some of the elasticities over the medium term? And then just -- maybe it's not a good clarification, but just curious whether you're seeing or you thought you saw any benefit in your frozen business from Cyclospora-related demand and if that's a factor in how you're viewing the next few quarters in frozen?

Chris Carey。我想問一下零食（Snacks）產品組合。你能否讓我們了解一下，你們在一些改善績效的介入措施上目前進展到哪裡？你們提到爆米花、Slim Jim；從銷量角度看，往前看、以及在中期逐步消化（lap）部分需求彈性影響後，你們的預期是什麼？另外——也許這不是很好的釐清方式，但我也好奇，你們是否在冷凍業務中看到、或曾以為看到任何與 Cyclospora 相關需求帶來的好處？以及這是否會影響你們對未來幾季冷凍業務的看法？

Great. I'll take both of those. As you think about Snacking, let's start with the positives. Really, our Sweet Treats portfolio continues to perform really, really well and had a very strong quarter Q1, and that's really behind both Snack Pack and Swiss Miss continue to really be performing very well in the market. I think permissible snacking, as you said, is really where -- we're not where we want to be there.

好的。這兩個我都來回答。談到零食業務，我們先從正面開始。我們的甜點零食（Sweet Treats）產品組合持續表現非常、非常好，第一季表現很強勁；這主要是因為 Snack Pack 和 Swiss Miss 在市場上持續表現非常出色。至於你提到的「較健康／可接受的零食」（permissible snacking），那確實是——我們目前還沒有達到我們希望的水準。

And I think a couple of points of drivers there. The first is, obviously, we're very overdeveloped in our meat snacks and our seeds business in the convenience channel, which has been really challenged lately with the higher gas prices. But I think aside that, there's work to do from my standpoint in terms of from an execution and a channel lens, we need to do a better job of participating where the growth is really coming from, specifically in the meat snacks category.

我認為其中有幾個驅動因素。第一，顯然我們在便利通路對肉類零食與瓜子／種子業務的布局過度集中，而近期因油價上升，便利通路受到很大挑戰。但除此之外，從我的角度來看，在執行面與通路策略面仍有工作要做；我們需要更好地參與成長真正來自的地方，特別是在肉類零食品類。

As you take a step back and you think about meat snacks and popcorn and seeds, these are fantastic categories, and we are the market leader. And so, it's our responsibility to, kind of, drive these categories forward. And so I think what you're going to see, and you're already seeing as we go into Q2, a significant step-up in our brand building and marketing, specifically pinpointed at meat snacks and popcorn specifically there. But then also innovation, a major step-up in innovation. We think those are the two critical levers to, kind of, get us back to a growth trajectory in those important businesses.

當你退一步思考肉類零食、爆米花和種子這些品類時，這些都是非常出色的品類，而我們是市場領導者。因此，某種程度上，推動這些品類向前發展是我們的責任。所以我認為你將會看到——而且你在進入第二季時已經看到——我們在品牌建設與行銷上的顯著加碼，特別是精準聚焦在肉類零食以及爆米花上。但同時也包括創新，在創新方面也會有大幅提升。我們認為，這兩個關鍵槓桿能讓我們在這些重要業務上回到成長軌道。

On Cyclospora, just a quick one there. We did see some benefit, but I would tell you, nothing material as we think about Q1. And we also actually saw some offsets from Cyclospora as you think about like our Wish-Bone salad dressing as an example. So again, nothing material there. But I think more than the onetime benefit, I think what's really important is this is a reflection of consumers coming to a brand they know and trust with Birds Eye, and we did a great job of delivering for them.

關於環孢子蟲（Cyclospora），簡單說一下。我們確實看到一些助益，但我會告訴你，就第一季來看並不具實質性影響。而且實際上，當你想到例如我們的 Wish-Bone 沙拉醬時，環孢子蟲也帶來了一些抵銷影響。所以同樣地，沒有什麼實質性影響。但我認為，比起一次性的助益，更重要的是，這反映出消費者轉向他們熟悉且信任的品牌 Birds Eye，而我們也做得很好，成功滿足了他們的需求。

And so, I think, as you think about that brand, we've got such an opportunity to drive better -- more trial and more engagement with consumers. We deliver great taste, great convenience and honestly, reliability that they're looking for in their vegetables. So we think a great opportunity to continue to drive Birds Eye.

因此，當你思考這個品牌時，我們有很大的機會去推動更好的——更多的試用與更高的消費者互動。我們提供絕佳的口味、便利性，以及坦白說，他們在蔬菜產品上所尋求的可靠性。所以我們認為，持續推動 Birds Eye 有很好的機會。

Max Gumport, BNP.

Max Gumport，法國巴黎銀行（BNP）。

Just coming back to the 1Q beat and your reaffirmed outlook for the year. Obviously, it was a sizable EPS beat versus consensus, I think versus your expectations, too. You did get some help from inflation. There was some SG&A timing benefit as well and your inflation outlook for the remainder of the year has ticked up. So I'm curious to what degree the reaffirmed outlook maybe has embedded additional conservatism in it, especially with regard to Ardent Mills as well, given the wheat price volatility.

回到第一季的優於預期表現，以及你們對全年展望的重申。顯然，EPS 相對於市場共識有相當幅度的超預期，我想相對於你們自己的預期也是如此。你們確實從通膨中得到一些助益。另外也有一些 SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）的時點性利益，而你們對今年剩餘期間的通膨展望也上調了。所以我想了解的是，重申的展望在多大程度上可能內含了額外的保守性，尤其是就 Ardent Mills 而言，考量到小麥價格波動。

Yes, Max, let me take that. Starting with Q1, you, kind of, hit it. We had a beat to our expectations really driven by, I think, four things. Our SG&A, which was the timing and then the onetime. We had the Ardent Mills benefit. We had the inflation lower than our internal forecast.

好的，Max，我來回答。先從第一季開始，你大致說中了。我們的表現優於我們的預期，我認為主要由四個因素驅動。我們的 SG&A，包含時點因素以及一次性因素。我們有 Ardent Mills 的助益。通膨也低於我們內部的預測。

And then we did get a bit of benefit on the tariff refunds that we got in the quarter, which was close to $0.01. When you look for the full year, SG&A, we talked about it, the onetime to onetime and then you have the timing, but that's pretty much on track. The big impact is the acceleration of transportation inflation. It's double the rate that we -- and we had assumed inflation for transportation, and it's double the rate. The good news is that we have some other areas in materials where we're favorable to that. So there's a lot of puts and takes there.

另外，我們在本季也收到一些關稅退稅的助益，約接近 0.01 美元。就全年來看，SG&A 我們談過了，一次性對一次性，然後還有時點因素，但整體基本上符合進度。最大的影響是運輸通膨加速。其增幅是我們——我們原先假設的運輸通膨——的兩倍。好消息是，在材料的其他領域，我們的表現對此是有利的。所以其中有很多相互抵銷的因素。

The other dynamic is we're just starting with our frozen pricing. And so we really need to see how this plays out. We've been very clear on how we've modeled elasticities. There could be a scenario where maybe that winds up being conservative, maybe not. So we just need to see how that plays out.

另一個動態是，我們才剛開始進行冷凍品類的定價調整。因此我們確實需要觀察後續會如何發展。我們已非常清楚說明我們如何建模需求彈性。可能會出現某種情境：最後結果也許顯得我們的假設偏保守，也可能不是。所以我們需要看看實際情況如何演變。

And then Ardent Mills, we were favorable about $0.03 in the quarter to our expectations for Ardent Mills. Wheat prices have been extremely volatile, right? If you just, kind of, look from May to now, they're up significantly, but they've been up and down.

至於 Ardent Mills，本季相較於我們對 Ardent Mills 的預期，有約 0.03 美元的有利差異。小麥價格波動非常劇烈，對吧？如果你大致看從 5 月到現在，價格顯著上升，但期間也上下震盪。

And so that creates trading opportunities for the commodity side of the Ardent business. And so the thing with that is that it's a little bit more difficult to forecast that with precision for the full year. So we thought it was prudent to hold the year. It's one quarter, and then we'll update at the half. And if things continue as they do in Q1, then maybe we have some upside there, but we want to wait a little longer to see.

因此，這為 Ardent 業務中大宗商品端帶來交易機會。但問題在於，要對全年做精準預測會更困難一些。所以我們認為維持全年展望不變是審慎的作法。這才一個季度，我們會在半年時更新。如果情況持續像第一季那樣發展，那麼也許會有一些上行空間，但我們想再多等一段時間觀察。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

Robert Moskow，TD Cowen。

I don't know if I saw, kind of, a firm guide on gross margin for the year. Three months ago, I think the guide was, kind of, flattish, but now you have the higher cost. And the other element that I wanted to ask about, Dave, is in the Frozen & Refrigerated division, the volumes are going to be down like 10%. And at the same time, you were also increasing capacity, particularly in frozen chicken. So I'm just wondering if there's -- how are you managing through the leverage consequences of that? Is that a drag? Have you already put into your numbers a drag from that dynamic?

我不確定我是否看到你們對全年毛利率有一個明確的指引。三個月前，我記得指引大致是持平，但現在你們面臨更高的成本。另外一點我想問的是，Dave，在冷凍與冷藏事業部，銷量將下滑約 10%。同時，你們也在擴增產能，特別是在冷凍雞肉方面。所以我想知道——你們如何管理因此帶來的槓桿（固定成本吸收）後果？這是否會造成拖累？你們是否已經在數字中納入了這種動態帶來的拖累？

Yes, Rob, good questions. On the first one, we've held our guidance for operating margin for the year. So obviously, gross margin is a big part of that. We've had puts and takes in the cost. And so we're still where we were before, which is relatively flat to the prior year in terms of gross margin.

是的，Rob，問題很好。第一點，我們維持了全年營業利益率的指引。所以很明顯，毛利率是其中很大的一部分。成本端有一些相互抵銷的因素。因此我們仍維持在先前的水準，也就是就毛利率而言，相對於去年大致持平。

To your second question, yes, obviously, we have modeled the pricing and the elasticity impacts, and there's volume impacts where we have decreases in volume in our frozen business. We've modeled that. We've taken into account the absorption impact. So all of that is included in the guidance that we provided, and we'll just see how that plays out.

至於你的第二個問題，是的，很明顯我們已經把定價與需求彈性影響納入模型，也納入了冷凍業務銷量下滑所帶來的影響。我們已經建模了。我們也把產能利用率／固定成本吸收的影響考慮進去。所以這些都已包含在我們提供的指引中，接下來就看實際情況如何發展。

Rob Dickerson, US Bancorp.

Rob Dickerson，美國合眾銀行（US Bancorp）。

John, I just want to ask you about the simplification process, kind of, how you're thinking about SKU rationalization and then maybe even brand rationalization, right? I realize you said last quarter, prepared remarks this quarter, again, kind of looking at everything. But there was -- it was noted in those prepared remarks that I guess you exited Celeste Pizza.

John，我想問你們的簡化流程，你們如何思考 SKU 精簡，甚至可能的品牌精簡，對吧？我知道你上季說過，而這一季的事先準備講稿也再次提到，你們在某種程度上是在檢視所有事情。但在那些準備講稿中提到，我想你們已退出 Celeste Pizza。

And I'm just curious, I mean, clearly, when you exit that, that rationalized the SKUs. So like are there parts of the portfolio such that you could simplify by just kind of stepping away from certain brands that are on lines that you have? And then, I guess, secondly, just kind of broadly, like how are you thinking at this point about the manufacturing footprint?

我只是好奇，顯然當你們退出那個品牌時，就精簡了 SKU。所以例如在產品組合中，是否有一些部分可以透過某種程度上退出某些你們現有產線上的品牌來達到簡化？然後第二點，更廣泛地說，你們目前如何思考製造據點（製造版圖／產能配置）？

Rob, thanks for the question. And if you guys will indulge me, I'm going to go a bit long on this one because I think it really is important for you to kind of understand how we're thinking about this. I am incredibly excited about the opportunity we have to really reduce complexity across the enterprise. And I will tell you, SKU optimization is definitely one of those areas. As we've discussed before, we have an extremely long tail of SKUs that we are getting after.

Rob，謝謝你的提問。如果各位容我多說一點，我會把這題講得稍微長一些，因為我認為這對你們理解我們的思考方式非常重要。我對於我們能在整個企業範圍內大幅降低複雜度的機會感到非常興奮。我可以告訴你，SKU 最佳化絕對是其中一個領域。如同我們先前討論過的，我們有非常長尾的 SKU，需要加以處理。

Right now, we did -- we stood up an internal work stream that's really looking to significantly reduce SKU count. And I'd put this work into two buckets. The smaller bucket, which you just alluded to is there are certain brands and categories where we simply just don't see a future. And it just makes sense to exit those small and really unprofitable brands or low-profit brands as soon as possible.

目前，我們已經建立了一個內部工作流程，專注於大幅降低 SKU 數量。我會把這項工作分成兩個面向。較小的一個面向，正如你剛才提到的，是在某些品牌與品類上，我們確實看不到未來。因此，盡快退出那些規模小且實際上不獲利、或低獲利的品牌，是合理的。

And so we made the decision, as you saw with Celeste Pizza, which had a minor impact on net sales for Q1, about a 15 bps impact, but it was actually profit accretive to the enterprise. And I think we'll continue to look for more of those small opportunities that we do see in front of us. I think the larger opportunity, though, is what I'm really calling the simplification of our core platforms. And I want to use an example here that I think will bring this to life, single-serve meals.

因此我們做出了決定，如你們在 Celeste Pizza 上所看到的，這對第一季淨銷售有些微影響，大約 15 個基點，但實際上對整個企業是增益獲利的。我想我們也會持續尋找更多我們眼前看到的這類小型機會。不過我認為更大的機會，是我所稱的核心平台簡化。我想用一個例子來讓這件事更具體：單人份餐點。

We've got over 400 single-serve meal SKUs. And I believe there's a future where we can have a much simpler, more productive assortment. That doesn't mean for a second that we don't believe in the category, that we have any plans to cede distribution or that we're going to stop innovating. I would say just the opposite. We want to double down in this business, and we think an optimized assortment can help drive velocity on our most impactful SKUs.

我們有超過 400 個單人份餐點 SKU。我相信未來我們可以擁有更簡單、效率更高的產品組合。這並不代表我們不看好這個品類，也不代表我們有任何打算放棄通路覆蓋，或停止創新。我會說恰恰相反。我們希望在這個業務上加碼投入，而我們認為最佳化的產品組合能提升最具影響力 SKU 的銷售速度。

And so that -- in terms of SKU complexity, that's one component. But I would also tell you, we're looking to optimize our formats and formulations. We just have to do a better job of eliminating non-value-added complexity that the consumer, quite frankly, isn't willing to pay for. So as we're looking at this, we're not just looking at SKUs, we're looking at formats and formulation as well. And I think as you fast forward, this is going to do several things for us.

因此——就 SKU 複雜度而言，這是一個面向。但我也要說，我們也在尋求最佳化我們的規格形式與配方。坦白說，我們必須更努力消除那些不增加價值、而消費者也不願意為之付費的複雜度。所以在檢視這件事時，我們不只看 SKU，也同時看規格形式與配方。而我認為，往前看，這將為我們帶來幾件事。

It's going to drive stronger operational efficiency. It's going to drive procurement savings as we're procuring fewer items, but with greater scale. It's going to help us drive improved focus, which I think is so important. When we get focused on something, we execute with excellence. We need to focus our organization a bit more, and this will do that.

這將帶來更強的營運效率。當我們採購的品項更少、但規模更大時，也會帶來採購節省。這也會幫助我們提升聚焦度，我認為這非常重要。當我們聚焦在某件事上，我們就能以卓越的方式執行。我們需要讓組織更聚焦一些，而這將做到這一點。

And then finally, improved velocity on shelf, which is good for us, good for our customers. And so the last thing I'd say here is, we're going to take a real measured approach in how we roll out the SKU simplification. We really need to coordinate this with our customer reset timing and look at inventory impacts. So I would see the majority of this benefit from this work to happen more in fiscal '28, but the decisions are happening right now.

最後，是提升貨架上的銷售速度，這對我們有利、對客戶也有利。因此我最後想說的是，我們在推動 SKU 簡化的落地方式上，會採取非常審慎、循序漸進的方法。我們確實需要與客戶的品項重置時程協調，並評估庫存影響。所以我預期這項工作的多數效益會更多體現在 2028 財年，但相關決策正在此刻發生。

Scott Marks, Jefferies.

Scott Marks，Jefferies。

I wanted to just ask a little bit about the consumer. You made some comments in the prepared remarks talking about the consumer just being thoughtful about where they're spending their dollars, obviously, managing through a volatile environment. Any updates you can share with us in terms of what you're seeing? Have things improved, gotten worse? Just any changes that you've seen recently?

我想稍微問一下關於消費者的情況。你在事先準備的發言中提到，消費者在支出上更為審慎，顯然是在波動的環境中進行管理。就你們觀察到的情況，有沒有任何更新可以分享？情況有改善、還是變差？最近你們看到的任何變化都可以。

Yes. Thanks for the question. And I think I would describe the macro environment as dynamic. That's probably an understatement. But in terms of the consumer, I would tend to say the word that I would use is muted and it continues to be kind of bifurcated by income, no doubt about it. But having said that, we really haven't seen any material step change in consumer behavior.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我會把總體環境形容為動態。這可能還算是輕描淡寫。但就消費者而言，我傾向用「偏弱」這個詞，而且毫無疑問，仍然呈現按收入分化的狀態。不過即便如此，我們確實沒有看到消費者行為出現任何重大的階段性變化。

There's pockets, C-store as an example, that's been a bit more pressured in recent months because of the gas prices. But overall, I would say the consumer has been relatively stable and resilient. And our job is to continue to stay incredibly close to the consumer. And we've got to evolve alongside how they're evolving and delivering the food they want, where they want it, but also importantly, at the right value. And this is what I love about our portfolio.

有些區塊，例如便利商店（C-store），近幾個月因為油價而承受較大壓力。但整體而言，我會說消費者相對穩定且具韌性。而我們的工作是持續非常貼近消費者。我們必須隨著他們的變化而演進，提供他們想要的食品、在他們想要的地方，同時也很重要的是，以合適的價值提供。這也是我喜歡我們產品組合的原因。

We've got brands that compete all across the value spectrum, value brands like Banquet all the way up to more premium offerings like Healthy Choice. And so we've got a portfolio that can meet this dynamic consumer wherever they are.

我們擁有能在整個價值光譜上競爭的品牌，從像 Banquet 這樣的價值型品牌，一直到像 Healthy Choice 這樣更高端的產品。因此，我們的產品組合能在這個動態的消費者環境中，於任何位置滿足他們的需求。

Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

Leah Jordan，Goldman Sachs。

Just see if you could provide more detail on the changes in your approach for the step-up in the A&P spend. It sounds like you've had some early traction. Just curious what's been working? How are you measuring that return? And where are you allocating the step-up in spend you're planning to do in 2Q?

想請你更詳細說明一下，你們在提高 A&P 支出方面的做法有哪些改變。聽起來你們已經有一些初步成效。我想了解哪些做法奏效了？你們如何衡量那個回報？以及你們計畫在第二季增加的支出，會配置到哪些地方？

Yes. As you think about A&P, this is a big one for me. We have so many great brands. But if I'm being truthful, we haven't consistently invested behind them at the levels that are required to drive that brand affinity and awareness. And so we have a tremendous opportunity to communicate more with consumers to ensure they understand we've got great value propositions out there, and our job is to make sure they fully understand it.

是的。談到 A&P，這對我來說是很重要的一塊。我們有非常多優秀的品牌。但坦白說，我們過去並沒有持續以足以推動品牌好感度與知名度所需的水準，穩定地在這些品牌背後投入。因此，我們有很大的機會與消費者進行更多溝通，確保他們理解我們提供了很好的價值主張，而我們的工作就是確保他們充分理解這一點。

And so as you think about the investments, I'm really pleased in two fronts. One, we're investing more; and two, we're getting that money to work a lot harder for us. And this is kind of this new modern marketing machine that we're building internally that I think can become a real competitive advantage. And so as you think about where we're focusing these investments, it's really in three places, single-serve meals, meat snacks and popcorn.

因此，談到這些投資，我在兩個方面感到非常滿意。第一，我們投資更多；第二，我們讓這筆錢為我們更有效率地發揮作用。這就是我們正在內部打造的全新現代化行銷機器，我認為它能成為真正的競爭優勢。因此，談到我們把這些投資聚焦在哪裡，主要是在三個領域：單人份餐點、肉類零食與爆米花。

We're going to be very, very targeted in those important growth ambitions -- and your last point is a good one, too. We're already seeing some really positive results in terms of improved reach and engagement from some of the changes that we're doing. We've gotten a lot more targeted in who we're going after, how we're going after them, and our messaging is just sharper and more compelling. And so I think this is a tremendous opportunity to use this increased focus on brand building to help kind of return us to growth and drive brand relevance.

我們會在那些重要的成長企圖上非常、非常有針對性——而你最後一點也說得很好。就我們正在推動的一些變革而言，我們已經在擴大觸及與提升互動方面看到一些非常正面的成果。我們在鎖定目標對象、接觸方式上變得更精準，而我們的訊息也更犀利、更具說服力。因此我認為，這是一個絕佳的機會，運用對品牌建設更聚焦的投入，協助我們回到成長軌道並提升品牌相關性。

That's very helpful. And then my follow-up was just on interest expense. I thought it was reiterated for the year. We've had to move higher in rates here recently. I think you're mostly fixed exposure, but I did think you had a little bit of floating.

這非常有幫助。接著我想追問的是利息費用。我以為公司已重申全年指引。最近利率不得不往上調。我認為你們大多是固定利率曝險，但我也以為你們有一小部分是浮動利率。

So just kind of catch up -- remind us where your exposure is there. And then I also thought you may have some refinancing needs in the relative near term. So just how are you thinking about that in this interest rate environment as well?

所以想請你們更新一下——提醒我們目前在這方面的曝險狀況。另外我也以為你們在相對不久的將來可能有一些再融資需求。那麼在目前這樣的利率環境下，你們也如何看待這件事？

Leah, let me take that the first one. We're pretty much 100% fixed right now. The only variable debt that we have is our commercial paper. And so we use that as sort of our working capital needs. So we're very high percentage fixed, so we're really not exposed to the interest rate environment now. Yes, we do have two bonds coming due this month.

Leah，我先回答第一個問題。我們目前幾乎是100%固定利率。我們唯一的浮動利率債務是商業本票。我們把它作為營運資金需求的一部分。因此我們固定利率的占比非常高，基本上目前不太會暴露在利率環境的影響之下。是的，我們這個月有兩筆債券到期。

We have a $500 million note and a $260 million note. We actually went into the market in July and financed ahead. And so we issued a $500 million note. The rate came in at 5.4%. The timing was actually pretty good there, given what rates have done since then. So between the -- from the proceeds of that and just our normal kind of borrowing capacity, we're very comfortable refinancing these notes this month.

一筆是5億美元票據，另一筆是2.6億美元票據。我們其實在7月就進入市場提前融資。因此我們發行了一筆5億美元票據。利率落在5.4%。考量到之後利率的走勢，當時的時點其實相當不錯。因此，透過那次發行的資金以及我們一貫的借款能力，我們對於在本月為這些票據再融資感到非常有把握。

Carla Casella, JPMorgan.

Carla Casella，摩根大通。

Somewhat on that last question as well as Alexia's earlier question on leverage. Have you had conversations with the agencies? Because we've seen, in some cases, other peers that have cut their dividend and focused on deleveraging, but still gotten downgraded. Do you think they're kind of changing their view at all on your business?

某種程度上延續剛才那個問題，也呼應Alexia先前關於槓桿的提問。你們有和評級機構進行過對話嗎？因為我們看到在某些情況下，其他同業削減股利並專注於去槓桿，但仍然被調降評級。你認為他們是否在某種程度上改變了對你們業務的看法？

Yes, Carla, we talk to the agencies all the time. And so they're very clear on our financial policy, our priority of using our discretionary cash flow to pay down our debt as quickly as possible. So we're always working and talking to the agencies. They obviously looked at our cut of the dividend as a positive in terms of our credit rating and our position.

是的，Carla，我們一直都在和評級機構溝通。因此他們非常清楚我們的財務政策，也清楚我們的優先事項是運用可自由支配的現金流，盡可能快速地償還債務。所以我們一直在與評級機構合作並保持對話。他們顯然將我們削減股利視為對信用評級與我們信用狀況的正面因素。

So they know where we're going. They know what our priorities are. So now it's a matter of just continuing to get that leverage down. We know the markers for levels where if you -- the leverage exceeds certain levels, you may be putting investment grade at risk. We're not near those levels.

所以他們知道我們要往哪裡走。他們知道我們的優先事項是什麼。接下來就是持續把槓桿降下來。我們知道一些門檻指標：如果——槓桿超過某些水準，可能會讓投資級評等面臨風險。我們離那些水準還很遠。

And we're moving in the right direction, which is down with our leverage, and they know that. So that's our strategy. That's our focus, and they're very aligned with that.

而且我們正朝正確方向前進，也就是槓桿持續下降，他們也知道這一點。所以這就是我們的策略。這就是我們的重點，而他們與我們在這方面非常一致。

Okay. That's great. And then just one follow-up on Ardent Mills. How do we think about the volatility in wheat and how that flows through the numbers? I know it's a benefit for this quarter, but how should we think about that going forward?

好的。太好了。接著再追問一個關於Ardent Mills的問題。我們應該如何看待小麥價格波動，以及它如何反映在財務數字上？我知道這一季是有利因素，但往後我們應該如何思考？

Yes. So think of Ardent Mills as really two different businesses. They have a business where they mill flour and they sell flour at a margin, and they're selling flour to the Domino's Pizzas of the world and everything. So they're dealing with the same volume dynamics that the entire food industry is, but they do an amazing job of providing great customer service that's a competitive advantage for them. But that business is more stable and more flattish.

是的。可以把Ardent Mills視為兩個不同的業務。他們有一塊業務是研磨麵粉並以利潤率銷售麵粉，客戶包括像Domino's Pizza這類公司等等。因此他們面對的是整個食品產業共同的同樣的量的動態，但他們在提供優質客戶服務方面做得非常出色，這是他們的競爭優勢。不過那塊業務相對更穩定、也比較持平。

If you look at the other part of their business, it's what we call commodity revenue, and that's the trading opportunities they create when you have volatility in the wheat markets. And so that's what we saw in Q1. And the hard part there is when that comes, it's a little bit difficult to forecast with precision. But generally, with more volatility, Ardent Mills will benefit from that volatility with their commodity trading business. And so -- and the good news for us is, we're very aligned from a capital allocation perspective.

如果看他們業務的另一部分，我們稱之為大宗商品收入，也就是當小麥市場出現波動時，他們所創造的交易機會。這就是我們在第一季看到的情況。而困難之處在於，當這種情況出現時，要精準預測會有點不容易。但一般而言，波動越大，Ardent Mills就越能透過其大宗商品交易業務從這種波動中受益。因此——對我們而言的好消息是，從資本配置的角度來看，我們彼此非常一致。

So in terms of profit, we have a minimum of 80% cash flow conversion on that profit, and we're very aligned with Ardent and our partners on that philosophy.

因此就利潤而言，我們要求該利潤至少有80%的現金流轉換率，而我們與Ardent以及合作夥伴在這個理念上高度一致。

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll be ending today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Matthew Neisius for closing remarks.

各位女士先生，現在我們將結束今天的問答環節。我想把時間交回給Matthew Neisius作結語。

Thank you, Jamie, and thank you all for joining us today. Feel free to reach out to Investor Relations with any additional questions. Have a good day.

謝謝你，Jamie，也謝謝各位今天加入我們。如有任何其他問題，歡迎與投資人關係部門聯繫。祝各位有美好的一天。

And with that, we'll conclude today's Q&A session and conference call. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

至此，我們將結束今天的問答環節與電話會議。非常感謝各位的參與。各位現在可以掛線。