Beazer Homes USA Inc (BZH) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Beazer Homes earnings conference call for the first quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2024. Today's call is being recorded and a replay will be available on the company's website later today. In addition, PowerPoint slides intended to accompany this call are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.beazer.com. At this point, I will turn the call over to David Goldberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日第一季及財政年度財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音，重播將於今天晚些時候在公司網站上提供。此外，與本次電話會議配對的 PowerPoint 投影片可在本公司網站 www.beazer.com 的投資者關係部分取得。現在，我將把電話轉給資深副總裁兼財務長 David Goldberg。

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to the Beazer Homes conference call discussing our results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Before we begin, you should be aware that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors described in our SEC filings, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 電話會議，討論我們 2025 財年第一季的表現。在我們開始之前，您應該意識到，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性的陳述。此類聲明涉及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素，這可能會導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異。

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date this statement is made. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time and it's simply not possible to predict all such factors.

任何前瞻性陳述僅代表本陳述發布之日的觀點。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務，無論由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。新因素時有出現，根本不可能預測所有這些因素。

Joining me today is Allan Merrill, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. On our call today, Allan will discuss highlights from our first-quarter results, the recent environment for new home sales, actions we're taking to improve performance as it relates to our fiscal year 2025 outlook, and the significant progress we're making towards our multiyear goals. I will then provide detailed guidance for our second-quarter results, an update on our outlook for the full fiscal year, and end with a discussion of our land position, liquidity, and our commitment to generating double-digit returns. Allan will conclude with a wrap-up, after which we will take any questions in the remaining time. I will now turn the call over to Allan.

今天與我一起出席的是我們的董事長兼執行長艾倫·梅里爾 (Allan Merrill)。在今天的電話會議上，艾倫將討論我們第一季業績的亮點、近期新房銷售環境、我們為改善 2025 財年業績而採取的行動，以及我們取得的重大進展實現我們的多年目標。然後，我將為我們第二季度的業績提供詳細指引，更新我們對整個財年的展望，最後討論我們的土地狀況、流動性以及我們對創造兩位數回報的承諾。艾倫將進行總結，之後我們將在剩餘的時間內回答任何問題。現在我將電話轉給艾倫。

Thanks, Dave, and thank you for joining us on our call this afternoon. We had a profitable and productive first quarter that positions us to achieve both our full-year outlook and our multiyear goals. Despite experiencing an uneven sales environment and having to defer the closing of nearly 50 homes in backlog, there are three highlights from the quarter that demonstrate real progress toward our growth and profitability ambitions.

謝謝，戴夫，感謝您今天下午參加我們的電話會議。我們第一季獲利且富有成效，這使我們能夠實現全年預期和多年目標。儘管銷售環境不平衡，且不得不推遲近 50 套積壓房屋的成交，但本季的三大亮點表明我們在實現成長和獲利目標方面取得了真正的進展。

The base of our business is expanding. Our ending community count was up nearly 20% versus the prior year, which allowed us to increase both sales and closings compared to last year. We also grew our active lot position by about 10%, providing visibility into further community count growth, both this year and next.

我們的業務基礎正在擴大。我們的期末社區數量比去年增加了近 20％，這使得我們的銷售額和成交量都比去年增加。我們還將活躍地塊數量增加了約 10%，為今年和明年社區數量的進一步增長提供了可見性。

Our balance sheet is more efficient, and liquidity is improving. 59% of our lot position is now controlled through options, up from 53% last year. This growth in option lots leverages our investment in land, improving returns, and mitigating risk. On the funding side, subsequent to quarter end, we upsized our revolver by more than 20%, providing ample seasonal liquidity to accommodate more communities and more homes under production.

我們的資產負債表更有效率，流動性正在改善。我們現在有 59% 的土地是透過選擇權進行控制的，高於去年的 53%。期權數量的增長有利於提高我們在土地方面的投資，從而提高回報並降低風險。在融資方面，在季度末之後，我們將循環信貸規模增加了 20% 以上，提供了充足的季節性流動資金，以適應更多社區和更多房屋的生產。

Our Zero Energy Ready homes are gaining momentum. These homes represented more than 85% of our sales during the quarter, up from 43% in last year's first quarter. As our sales and closings have ramped up, we've reduced the cost to achieve the DOE standard by several thousand dollars per home. Although homebuyer affordability is likely to remain the key challenge throughout the year, we're optimistic about the longer-term outlook for new home sales and our growth prospects, specifically.

我們的零能耗住宅正在蓬勃發展。這些房屋占我們本季銷售額的 85% 以上，高於去年第一季的 43%。隨著我們的銷售量和成交量的不斷提升，我們將每戶達到 DOE 標準的成本降低了數千美元。儘管購屋者承受能力可能仍是全年的主要挑戰，但我們對新房銷售的長期前景以及我們的成長前景持樂觀態度。

Having noted the highlights, it's important we acknowledge that we missed both our sales and closings guidance for the quarter, something we're not accustomed to doing. I'll tell you what happened and what we're doing about it. On the sales side, the strength we experienced in October, with paces up sharply over the prior year, softened in November and became materially weaker in December. As a result, we sold fewer homes and had to spend more on incentives for the sales we made.

在註意到這些亮點之後，我們必須承認，我們未能達到本季的銷售和收盤預期，這是我們不習慣做的事情。我會告訴你發生了什麼以及我們採取了什麼措施。在銷售方面，10 月我們經歷了強勁成長，與去年同期相比大幅成長，但 11 月有所減弱，12 月則顯著減弱。結果，我們銷售的房屋減少了，並且必須花費更多的錢來激勵銷售。

While our first quarter is our lowest volume quarter of the year, it is also the most difficult to predict because it occurs during many other builders' year-ends. Unsurprisingly, the most challenging markets were in Texas and Florida, where higher inventory levels led to sluggish sales and more aggressive incentives. Our absorption rate in many other markets, including California, Nevada and the Mid-Atlantic, held up much better.

雖然我們的第一季是一年中銷量最低的季度，但也是最難預測的季度，因為它發生在許多其他建築商的年底。毫不奇怪，最具挑戰性的市場是德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州，那裡較高的庫存水平導致銷售疲軟和更激進的激勵措施。我們在加州、內華達州和大西洋中部地區等許多其他市場的吸收率都表現得更好。

Weaker-than-expected sales obviously played a role in our closings miss. But separately, we had to push out 47 closings from the quarter as we dealt with some unique utility issues, labor availability in Houston and meter availability in California. The ASPs and margins on these deferred closings would have really helped first quarter results. The good news is we don't expect these issues to persist and all of these homes are now scheduled to close this spring. That's a summary of what happened.

銷售業績低於預期顯然是導致我們未能達成交易的原因之一。但另外，由於我們要處理一些獨特的公用事業問題、休士頓的勞動力可用性以及加州的電錶可用性，我們不得不推遲本季的 47 個收盤。這些延期收盤的平均售價和利潤率確實對第一季的業績有幫助。好消息是，我們預計這些問題不會持續下去，所有這些房屋都計劃在今年春天關閉。這就是事情經過的概要。

Now let's turn to what we're doing to improve results. I'll share four initiatives that are already well underway. First, we're activating more than 60 new communities before year-end. That's the largest nine-month community launch effort in our recent history. Over the past three fiscal years, we've activated more than 150 communities, and we've gotten better at it over time.

現在讓我們來談談我們正在採取哪些措施來改善結果。我將分享四項已在順利進行中的舉措。首先，我們將在年底前啟動 60 多個新社區。這是我們近期史上規模最大的九個月社區啟動活動。在過去三個財年中，我們已經啟動了 150 多個社區，隨著時間的推移，我們做得越來越好。

By building deep, qualified VIP interest list, updating elevations and floor plans and including the most relevant design features, we expect to generate robust grand opening sales activity in these new communities.

透過建立深入、合格的 VIP 興趣名單、更新立面圖和平面圖並納入最相關的設計特色，我們期望在這些新社區中產生強勁的開業銷售活動。

Second, we're making mortgage financing for to-be-built homes more compelling. To-be-built homes let our buyers personalize their home, and they consistently carry higher margins. But short-term mortgage incentives, tied to specs that can close right away, have suppressed demand for homes that won't be available for six months.

其次，我們正在使待建房屋的抵押融資更具吸引力。待建房屋讓我們的買家可以個性化他們的房屋，並且始終帶來更高的利潤。但與可以立即成交的規格掛鉤的短期抵押貸款激勵措施抑制了六個月內無法出售的房屋的需求。

To address this challenge, we've worked with our lenders to offer one-way rate locks with an embedded permanent rate buydown that provide protection from rising rates while allowing our buyers to benefit if rates happen to decline. Combining long-term rate locks with buydowns is an important innovation for us, and I think it will help with to-be-built sales.

為了應對這項挑戰，我們與貸款機構合作，提供單向利率鎖定，並嵌入永久利率買斷，以便在利率上升時提供保護，同時如果利率下降，我們的買家也可以受益。將長期利率鎖定與買斷相結合對我們來說是一項重要的創新，我認為這將有助於即將建成的銷售。

Third, we're improving the profitability of our specs. During the quarter, specs represented nearly 70% of our closings, the highest level in over a decade. While we're working hard to drive that percentage down, we're also focused on improving spec profitability. In fact, the margin profile on our specs should improve organically over the balance of the year as our prior series homes close out. We've also updated feature levels to better align with market conditions. We know we probably can't get spec margins to match to-be-built homes, but we do expect to narrow the gap.

第三，我們正在提高規格的獲利能力。在本季度，規格占我們成交量的近 70%，創十多年來的最高水準。在我們努力降低該百分比的同時，我們也致力於提高規格獲利能力。事實上，隨著我們之前的系列房屋的售罄，我們規格的利潤率狀況應該會在今年餘下時間裡有機改善。我們還更新了功能級別，以更好地適應市場情況。我們知道我們可能無法獲得與即將建造的房屋相匹配的規格利潤率，但我們確實希望縮小差距。

And finally, we're reducing construction costs. We've said many times that we expected to reduce the costs to deliver Zero Energy Ready homes, and we're now doing it. But our cost reduction efforts are broader than that. We're also capturing savings from a more focused SKU lift with our national partners and using our sizable community count growth to rebid local labor and material providers.

最後，我們正在降低建築成本。我們已經多次表示，我們希望降低成本來打造零能耗住宅，現在我們正在這樣做。但我們的降低成本的努力遠不止於此。我們也透過與國家合作夥伴進行更有針對性的 SKU 提升來節省成本，並利用我們龐大的社區數量成長來重新競標當地勞動力和材料供應商。

Since October 1, we've been able to reduce build costs by about $3,000, so far, which will benefit to-be-built and spec homes that deliver later in the year. We are committed to translating these efforts into better sales paces and better margins this year, which is why we still expect our full year performance to fall within the broad ranges we provided in November, even if market conditions and mortgage rates don't improve.

自 10 月 1 日以來，我們迄今已能夠將建築成本降低約 3,000 美元，這將有利於今年稍後交付的待建房屋和樣品屋。我們致力於將這些努力轉化為今年更好的銷售速度和更高的利潤率，這就是為什麼即使市場條件和抵押貸款利率沒有改善，我們仍然預計全年業績將在 11 月份提供的大致範圍內。

Beyond 2025, we continue to have a very positive longer-term outlook for new home sales, and we remain fully committed to achieving our 3 multiyear goals, which include expanding our community count, deleveraging our balance sheet and delivering a demonstrably superior home. We ended the first quarter with 163 communities, up nearly 20% versus the prior year, and we remain on track to end the year with a community count around 180. Our total land position grew about 10%, giving us a clear path to achieving our goal of ending FY '26 with more than 200 communities.

2025 年以後，我們仍然對新房銷售的長期前景持非常樂觀的態度，並且我們仍然全力致力於實現我們的三個多年目標，其中包括擴大社區數量、降低資產負債表中的槓桿率和提供明顯優質的住房。第一季結束時，我們擁有 163 個社區，比上年增長近 20%，我們仍有望在年底時將社區數量增至 180 個左右。我們的總土地持有量增加了約 10%，這為我們實現在 26 財年結束時擁有超過 200 個社區的目標提供了明確的途徑。

We also remain on track to have a net debt-to-net capitalization ratio below 30% by the end of fiscal '26. While our leverage was relatively flat versus the prior year, as we continue to grow our land pipeline, the cumulative profitability and cash flow we anticipate over the next two years will allow us to reach this target. Lastly, we continue to make significant progress towards qualifying 100% of our starts to Zero Energy Ready by the end of the calendar year.

到 26 財年末，我們的淨負債與淨資本比率仍有望達到 30% 以下。雖然我們的槓桿率與去年相比相對持平，但隨著我們繼續增加土地儲備，我們預計未來兩年的累積獲利能力和現金流將使我們實現這一目標。最後，我們將繼續取得重大進展，爭取在今年年底前讓 100% 的專案達到零能耗就緒標準。

In the first quarter, 98% of our starts met the DOE standard. Over the balance of the year, we have fewer than 100 starts remaining in four closeout communities related to our prior series. I know many observers haven't realized how important Zero Energy Ready is yet. But as you may have noticed on the cover slide, we're leaning into this advantage. Our homes are different, and they're better, and we can prove it. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

第一季度，我們 98% 的開工量都符合 DOE 標準。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們在與之前的系列賽相關的四個清倉社區中剩下的首發場次不到 100 場。我知道許多觀察家還沒有意識到零能耗準備有多麼重要。但正如您可能在封面投影片上註意到的那樣，我們正利用這一優勢。我們的家園有所不同，而且更加美好，我們可以證明這一點。說完這些，我會把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Allan. This afternoon, I will concentrate on providing some more specifics on our second quarter guidance and our outlook for the fiscal year. I will conclude my comments with a discussion of our balance sheet, land position and our commitment to generating double-digit returns. We have detailed our first quarter 2025 results in our presentation, our press release and our 10-Q. And of course, we're happy to discuss them during the Q&A portion of this call.

謝謝，艾倫。今天下午，我將集中提供有關我們第二季度指引和財年展望的更多具體資訊。最後，我將討論我們的資產負債表、土地狀況以及我們對創造兩位數回報的承諾。我們在簡報、新聞稿和 10-Q 中詳細介紹了 2025 年第一季的業績。當然，我們很高興在本次電話會議的問答環節討論這些問題。

Let's start with our expectations for the second quarter. We note that our outlook doesn't contemplate an improvement in market conditions. We expect sales to be up about 10% versus the same period last year as our average community count swivel up 15%. We expect to end the second quarter with around 160 communities. We anticipate closing around 1,050 homes with an average ASP of around $515,000.

讓我們從對第二季的預期開始。我們注意到，我們的前景並未考慮到市場狀況的改善。我們預計銷售額將比去年同期成長 10% 左右，因為我們的平均社群數量將增加 15%。我們預計第二季末社區數量將達到 160 個左右。我們預計將成交約 1,050 套房屋，平均售價約為 515,000 美元。

Adjusted gross margin should be up a bit sequentially. Our gross margin will benefit from the delayed closings from our first quarter and the activities Allan described to improve our profitability. SG&A as a percentage of revenue should be less than 13%. We expect our SG&A as a percentage of revenue to decline significantly in the back half of the year as our closings accelerate.

調整後的毛利率應比上一季略有上升。我們的毛利率將受益於第一季的延遲收盤和艾倫所描述的提高獲利能力的活動。銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比應低於 13%。我們預計，隨著我們的收尾工作加速，銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比將在今年下半年大幅下降。

We expect to generate more than $30 million in adjusted EBITDA. Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue should be just over 3%, and our effective tax rate to be approximately 11.5%. This should lead to diluted earnings per share of about $0.30.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將超過 3,000 萬美元。攤銷利息佔房屋建築收入的百分比應略高於 3%，我們的有效稅率約為 11.5%。這將導致每股攤薄收益約為 0.30 美元。

Last quarter, we provided a range of potential outcomes on community count, sales pace and gross margin for the fiscal year. First quarter results put some pressure on our full year outlook and, as such, will likely perform toward the lower end of our pace and margin ranges. Our year-end community count should be around 180, up about 10% versus the prior year. Our average community count for the year should be up between 18 and 22 communities, reflecting 12.5% to 15% growth.

上個季度，我們提供了一系列有關財年社區數量、銷售速度和毛利率的可能結果。第一季的業績給我們的全年前景帶來了一些壓力，因此，其表現很可能會接近我們速度和利潤率範圍的低端。我們的年底社區數量應該在 180 個左右，比前一年增加約 10%。我們今年的平均社區數量應該會增加到 18 到 22 個，成長率為 12.5% 到 15%。

Despite the slower sales pace in the first quarter, we remain committed to achieving the sales pace between 2.5 and 3 sales per community per month for the full year, more in line with our historical norms. While we expect our sales pace to be off a little in the first half of the year, we expect substantial improvement in the back half. In part, this pickup is off the easier comparisons, but it also is related to the fact that we have so many new community openings. For the full year, we provided a range of our expected gross margin between 19.5% and 20.5%. Incorporating first quarter results and current conditions, we now expect full year margins around 19.5%.

儘管第一季的銷售速度有所放緩，但我們仍致力於實現全年每個社區每月 2.5 到 3 筆的銷售速度，以更符合我們的歷史常態。雖然我們預計上半年銷售速度會略有下降，但我們預計下半年將會有大幅改善。從某種程度上來說，這種回升與更容易的比較不同，但也與我們擁有如此多的新社區開放有關。對於全年，我們預期毛利率範圍在 19.5% 至 20.5% 之間。結合第一季的業績和當前情況，我們預計全年利潤率約為 19.5%。

As it relates to our ASP and SG&A, our backlog ASP is currently about $540,000, up about 4% versus the prior year and supporting our outlook that our full year ASP should approach $530,000. Further, while we're still investing heavily for growth, our higher community count should lead to revenue growing faster than our overheads in fiscal '25, driving down our SG&A percentage to about 11%.

就我們的 ASP 和 SG&A 而言，我們目前積壓的 ASP 約為 540,000 美元，比上年增長約 4%，並支持我們對全年 ASP 應接近 530,000 美元的預期。此外，雖然我們仍在為成長而進行大量投資，但我們更高的社區數量應該會導致收入成長速度快於我們25 財年的管理費用，從而將我們的銷售、一般和行政費用百分比降至11 % 左右。

Even at the low end of each of the ranges, we expect to generate adjusted EBITDA that would represent another year of double-digit return on capital employed. Since we pivoted to growth in fiscal 2020, our total land position has grown nearly 50% from fewer than 19,000 lots to more than 28,000 lots today, and we've done that exclusively through increasing our option lots, which have gone from 29% of our total to 59%.

即使在每個範圍的低端，我們也預期調整後的 EBITDA 將代表另一年的兩位數資本使用報酬率。自2020 財年轉向成長以來，我們的土地總持有量已從不到19,000 塊增加到今天的28,000 多塊，增長了近50%，而我們完全是透過增加選擇權地塊來實現的，這些地塊佔總持有量的29%達到 59%。

In 2025, we expect land spend to be around $850 million, and our owned and option lot position should exceed $30,000. Our balance sheet remains healthy with total liquidity exceeding $335 million at the end of the quarter, no maturities until October 2027 and more than enough liquidity to fuel our growth plans.

到 2025 年，我們預計土地支出將達到 8.5 億美元左右，我們自有和可選的地塊價值應超過 30,000 美元。我們的資產負債表依然保持健康，本季末的總流動資金超過 3.35 億美元，直到 2027 年 10 月都沒有到期日，並且有足夠的流動資金來推動我們的成長計畫。

Earlier this week, we successfully upsized our revolver to $365 million. We expect to end fiscal 2025 with a net debt to net cap in the mid-30s, and we're on a path to reduce our net debt to net cap below 30% by the end of fiscal 2026 as our improving profitability, cash generation and balance sheet management will sustain our deleveraging.

本週早些時候，我們成功將循環信貸規模增至 3.65 億美元。我們預計，到2025 財年末，淨債務與淨資本之比將達到35% 左右，隨著獲利能力和現金產生能力的提高，我們預計在2026 財年末將淨債務與淨資本之比降至30%以下。

Over the past five years, we've grown book value per share by about 19% on average. We're focused on consistently generating double-digit returns on capital employed and equity. While growth remains our primary priority for capital allocation, we consistently consider strategies that would contribute to sustaining double-digit returns. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Allan.

在過去五年中，我們的每股帳面價值平均成長了約 19%。我們專注於持續創造兩位數的資本使用和股本回報。雖然成長仍然是我們資本配置的首要任務，但我們始終考慮有助於維持兩位數回報的策略。說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給艾倫。

Thank you, Dave. While the first quarter challenged us, we're positioned to drive significant top line growth and generate double-digit returns again this year, even as we invest heavily for the coming years. We're also well on our way to achieving each of our multiyear goals. I'm confident we have the team, the resources and the strategy to create growing and durable value for our stakeholders in the years ahead. And with that, I'll ask the operator to take us into Q&A.

謝謝你，戴夫。儘管第一季給我們帶來了挑戰，但我們仍有望在今年再次實現營收大幅成長並創造兩位數的回報，同時為未來幾年進行了大量投資。我們也正在順利實現每一個多年目標。我相信，我們擁有團隊、資源和策略，能夠在未來幾年為我們的利害關係人創造不斷增長的持久價值。接下來，我將請接線生帶我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Tyler Batory, Oppenheimer.

（操作員指示）泰勒·巴托利（Tyler Batory），奧本海默。

First one for me, just on the demand side of things, so far, in Q2 and in January. Just talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in the field. I'm not sure, any anecdotes or any green shoots in terms of demand out there in your markets?

對我來說，第一個是關於需求方面的問題，到目前為止，是在第二季和一月。請再多談談您在該領域看到的情況。我不確定，你們的市場在需求上有沒有什麼軼事或復甦跡象？

Yes. I've been traveling a fair bit already this year. And I would say, first of all, online traffic stayed pretty strong through December, even if sales were more challenging. And that's usually a very good sign. People are online before they're offline for the most part.

是的。今年我已經旅行過不少次了。我想說，首先，即使銷售面臨更大挑戰，但整個 12 月的線上流量仍然保持強勁。這通常是一個非常好的跡象。大多數情況下，人們在離線之前都是在線上的。

And it's early in the month. I don't have the last week or so of activity. But January feels okay. It's not a blowout, it's not gangbusters, but it has not taken another step down. And arguably, for seasonal reasons, at a minimum, it's a little better than December.

現在才月初。我最近一周左右沒有什麼活動。但一月感覺還好。這不是一個徹底勝利，也不是勢不可擋，但也沒有進一步衰退。並且可以說，出於季節原因，至少比 12 月好一點。

Okay. Great. In terms of incentive levels, can you talk a little bit more about where you were on incentives in Q1, how that compared with Q4? And then talk a little bit more about your expectations for incentive activity for the rest of this fiscal year.

好的。偉大的。在激勵程度方面，您能否詳細談談第一季的激勵情況以及與第四季相比如何？然後稍微談談您對本財年剩餘時間激勵活動的期望。

Yes. So I totally understand the question. I'm going to do the best I can to answer it. The challenge with incentives is that there are a number of components. And they're kind of in different places.

是的。我完全理解這個問題。我將盡力回答這個問題。激勵措施的挑戰在於它涉及多個方面。它們位於不同的地方。

So there's a closing cost amount. There are restrictions in loan programs against maxes that you can do there. There are discounts that may be in the form of design center credits or price reductions. And so when you think about incentives, it's really what are all of those parts and pieces. And then, of course, there's differences between specs and to-be-built.

因此有一個成交成本金額。貸款計劃對您可以進行的貸款上限有所限制。折扣可能以設計中心的信用或降價形式提供。因此，當您考慮激勵措施時，它實際上就是所有這些部分和片段。當然，規格和實際建造之間存在差異。

What we actually saw, and this was a bit of a concern for me, is that incentives on to-be-builts were going down into our first quarter, but we weren't selling enough of them. And that's really what led to unpacking this creating a financing mechanism that was more compelling for buyers, where they felt like there was an opportunity to lock a long rate below current market rates. And I think that will help, and it's well within the structure of incentives that we otherwise provide on the closing cost side.

我們實際看到的情況是，這讓我有點擔心，第一季對待建造房屋的激勵措施正在減少，但我們銷售的數量卻不夠。這才是真正導致這個問題的原因，即創造一種對買家更具​​吸引力的融資機制，讓他們覺得有機會將長期利率鎖定在當前市場利率以下。我認為這會有所幫助，而且這完全符合我們在成交成本方面提供的激勵結構。

On the spec side, there's no question. In November and then really accelerating into December, the combination of price discounts and incentives that we had to offer spiked. And it differed, of course, by market. But I would tell you, it took a point or 2 out of sales that we sold and closed just between the middle of November and the end of December. We have not extended that into January. That was kind of keeping up with the Joneses. And I feel a little better about not doing that so far this year.

從規格方面來說，毫無疑問。從 11 月開始，到 12 月，我們提供的價格折扣和激勵措施的組合數量急劇增加。當然，不同市場的情況也不同。但我要告訴你，我們在 11 月中旬到 12 月底之間銷售並完成的訂單減少了 1 到 2 個百分點。我們並沒有將該期限延長至一月。這有點像是與瓊斯一家人攀比。今年到目前為止還沒有做過這樣的事，現在我感覺好多了。

The other thing, Tyler, is rates moved about 50 basis points after our last earnings call before the end of the year. It was 42, but they moved about 50 basis points. For buyers that were in backlog, one of the things that we saw was, gosh, there were some very aggressive rate promos out there. We're in backlog with you, but we'd like a little help against this rate that may have moved. And so anytime you get an upward spike like that in a short period of time, you can see some movement in incentive. It wasn't huge, but there was some effect there.

泰勒，另一件事是，在我們年底前的最後一次財報電話會議之後，利率變動了約 50 個基點。實際利率為 42，但它們變動了約 50 個基點。對於積壓的買家，我們看到的事情之一是，天哪，有一些非常激進的價格促銷。我們的訂單積壓了您，但我們希望得到一些幫助來應對可能發生的變化。因此，只要您在短時間內獲得這樣的上升勢頭，您就能看到激勵的某種變動。雖然影響不大，但還是有一定影響的。

Now I'd take all that together, it's hard for me to give you an exact percentage because we're constantly changing base prices and included features. And then, of course, you've got the closing cost. But I think if you tried to -- if you had perfect information, you'd see there's been about a point of pressure over the last, call it, 4 months that has developed. As rates have started to move up being part of it and then that year-end selling that a lot of our peers were doing in their fourth quarter, a combination of those 2 things, I would put roughly in that bucket of about 1 point.

現在我將所有這些考慮在一起，我很難給你一個確切的百分比，因為我們不斷改變基本價格和包含的功能。然後，當然，你還需要支付成交成本。但我認為，如果你嘗試——如果你擁有完美的訊息，你會發現在過去的 4 個月裡已經出現了壓力點。由於利率開始上升，加上許多同業在第四季進行年底拋售，加上這兩件事的綜合作用，我大致將這一比例放在了 1 點左右。

Frankly, Tyler, just to add to that, we talked about last quarter being 19.5% to 20.5% on the gross margin. We talked about this quarter being closer to that 19.5% number, and that's kind of what Allan is talking about. That's the impact of it, and part also by the new communities coming online, but you can kind of see there's a lot of moving pieces.

坦白說，泰勒，補充一下，我們談到上個季度的毛利率為 19.5％ 至 20.5％。我們談到本季更接近 19.5% 這個數字，這正是艾倫所說的。這就是它的影響，部分也是由上線的新社區造成的，但你可以看到有很多活動的部分。

Okay. That's good.

好的。那挺好的。

I don't know if we made it better or worse, Tyler.

泰勒，我不知道我們是讓情況變得更好了還是更糟了。

No, no, that was very good. Very good detail. Very good detail. I appreciate that. And kind of a segue to my last question, just on the gross margin guide.

不，不，那非常好。細節非常好。細節非常好。我很感激。這與我的最後一個問題有關，即關於毛利率指南。

And it implies a pretty significant ramp, I think, in the back half of the year. So maybe talk a little bit first about what's driving the sequential progression into Q2? And then talk a little bit more about just the inflection, if you will, in the second half of the year, too?

我認為，這意味著今年下半年將出現相當顯著的成長。因此，能否先談談推動第二季連續發展的因素是什麼？然後如果您願意的話，可以再多談談今年下半年的變化嗎？

Sure. So relative to the first quarter moving into the second quarter, and we said it will be up a bit. Really, there are a few things going on there. But we will get the benefit of those homes that pushed out of the first quarter, which is nice because they had terrific margins. Our mix of specs in our closing count is going to be a little lower.

當然。因此，相對於第一季進入第二季度，我們說它會略有上升。確實，那裡發生了一些事情。但我們將獲得第一季推出的那些房屋的利益，這是件好事，因為它們的利潤很高。我們的收盤價中的規格組合將會稍微低一些。

A lower percentage of the specs that closed are from the prior series, and we're starting to see just the very first homes closing with lower construction costs. So you're going to get little bits from all four of those, which is why we expect sequentially a little bit of improvement.

成交的規格中較低比例來自先前的系列，我們開始看到只有第一批房屋以較低的建築成本成交。所以你會從這四個方面得到一點點收穫，這就是為什麼我們期望逐步取得一點進步。

When you play that out over the balance of the year, of course, the pushouts that was kind of a discrete activity, but the other three are all in place. We do expect to have a lower mix of specs over the balance of the year. And heck, if it just moves from 70 to 60, that's a big difference in our reported margin because of the 3- to 5-point differential between to-be-builts and specs. Not having the prior series homes, and I don't remember which month will close or last of those or when it gets down to such a de minimis number, but it was still a meaningful share of the Q1 closings. It won't be by Q4 of this year.

當然，當你在全年的剩餘時間完成這項工作時，推廣活動是一種獨立的活動，但其他三項活動都已到位。我們確實預計，今年餘下的時間內，規格組合將會減少。而且，如果它從 70 降到 60，那麼我們報告的利潤率就會有很大差異，因為待建產品和規格產品之間存在 3 到 5 個百分點的差異。沒有之前的系列房屋，我不記得哪個月會關閉或持續，或者什麼時候會降到如此最低限度的數字，但它仍然佔第一季度關閉量的很大一部分。今年第四季還不會實現。

And while I'm happy about the $3,000 we've been able to take out of our direct so far, our plans are larger than that. And a larger share of our homes, as we move through the year, will get the benefit. So as Dave said, and I think I said, we're not expecting more robust conditions or lower mortgage rates. It's really those discrete items that give us the confidence that we're going to be able to have a progression through the year and have a back half, from a margin perspective, that looks better than the first half.

雖然我很高興我們迄今為止已經能夠直接獲得 3,000 美元，但我們的計劃遠不止於此。隨著時間的推移，我們越來越多的住房將受益。因此正如戴夫所說，我想我也說過，我們並不期待更強勁的情況或更低的抵押貸款利率。正是這些離散項目讓我們有信心在全年取得進展，並且從利潤率的角度來看，下半年會比上半年更好。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納（Alan Ratner），澤爾曼及合夥人公司。

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for all the detail, as always. I guess, first question on the order pace through the quarter. You gave the guidance roughly midway through. And I certainly understand the closings shortfall and the impact that, that had on margin. I guess, I want to focus a little bit more on the order side in terms of what transpired there.

嘿，大家好。午安.一如既往，感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。我想，第一個問題是關於本季的訂單速度。您大約在中途給出了指導。我當然了解收盤價不足以及對利潤的影響。我想，我想更多地關註一下那裡發生的事情的秩序方面。

As you look at kind of results in the back half of the quarter, obviously, December wasn't a great month. But is there something you could put your finger on specifically that you feel like really contributed to that shortfall, at least in your results? Like was it your competitors got more aggressive than you did on incentives? Were there specific markets that really drove that shortfall? Any color you can kind of give there would be helpful.

當你查看本季後半段的業績時，顯然 12 月不是一個好月份。但是，您能具體指出是什麼原因導致了這種不足，至少在您的結果上是如此嗎？例如，您的競爭對手在激勵措施方面是否比您更積極？是否存在特定市場真正造成了這種短缺？無論你提供什麼顏色都會有幫助。

Absolutely, Alan. Look, I understand, we had just come off in October where we had a big pace of improvement year over year, and online activity was good. We felt pretty confident about pace improvements in November and December. We didn't have it in November. And November can be a little bit of a funky month. You get Thanksgiving and travel and weather. So you don't really know what that means.

當然，艾倫。看，我知道，我們十月剛過去，同比去年我們有了很大的進步，線上活動也很好。我們對 11 月和 12 月的步伐改善非常有信心。11 月我們還沒有這個活動。十一月可能會是個有點奇怪的月份。你會得到感恩節、旅行和天氣。所以你其實不知道那是什麼意思。

It was really in December where we saw, particularly in Texas and a little bit in Florida, although our business there is pretty small, but we really saw what I would call shucking off on pricing and incentives. And we participated to some extent, but maybe not fully. It's always a challenge to decide how much of that to engage in, but you're aware of where the inventory numbers are in all of the markets in Texas that we participate.

實際上是在 12 月份，我們看到了，特別是在德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州，雖然我們的業務規模很小，但我們確實看到了我所說的定價和激勵措施的下降。我們參與了某個程度，但可能沒有完全參與。決定參與多少始終是一個挑戰，但您知道我們參與的德克薩斯州所有市場的庫存數量。

And I think we were -- I was surprised, I won't blame anybody else. I think I was surprised by how deep folks went to move finished inventory. And here's the thing. When those incentives are floating around, I mean, I don't ever attribute to our peers that they'd do anything that's illogical or not financially astute. They may advertise, call it, a 2.99% rate. And that rate applies to these three homes that can close within this time period. But that rate is now in the market. So everybody they see, everybody we see says, gosh, that would be a great rate.

我想我們——我感到很驚訝，我不會責怪任何人。我想我對人們轉賣成品庫存的力度之大感到驚訝。事情是這樣的。當這些激勵措施四處流傳時，我的意思是，我從來不會責怪我們的同行會做任何不合邏輯或不精明的財務行為。他們可能會宣傳，利率為 2.99%。此利率適用於三棟可在此時間內成交的房屋。但該利率目前已在市場上存在。所以他們見到的每個人，我們看到的每個人，都說，天哪，那將是一個很好的利率。

Well, there's no path necessarily for every home to that rate. And so what do those buyers do? They hold out and say, well, we'll check back with you in January. Now I will say, I think a lot of folks could have made great deals in December that are finding it generally more difficult to make those deals in January, but there was definitely a promotion that spiked up, and for us, particularly in Texas, is where I observed it.

嗯，並不是每個家庭都能達到這個水準。那麼這些買家會怎麼做呢？他們堅持說，好吧，我們將在一月份再與您聯繫。現在我要說的是，我認為很多人本來可以在12 月達成很好的交易，但他們發現1 月份達成這些交易通常更加困難，但促銷活動肯定大幅增加，對於我們來說，特別是在德克薩斯州，是我觀察到的地方。

Got it. No, that's helpful additional color there. Second question, just on kind of the energy efficiency strategy and kind of the benefits you've seen on the tax rate side. I'm just curious, from an economic standpoint, I know you've kind of touted, obviously, you feel like you can get a premium for this product in the market, but there's also this benefit on the tax line as well.

知道了。不，那是很有幫助的附加顏色。第二個問題，只是關於能源效率策略以及您在稅率方面看到的益處。我只是好奇，從經濟角度來看，我知道你有點吹噓，顯然，你覺得你可以在市場上為這種產品獲得溢價，但在稅收方面也有這種好處。

As you think about the new administration and kind of the seeming deemphasis on a lot of the energy efficiency side of things, are you rethinking some of the moves and the investments you're making in this category under the possibility that perhaps it's less beneficial going forward if there is tax reform there? Or are you kind of full steam ahead still on this move?

當你想到新政府似乎不再強調能源效率方面的事情時，你是否會重新考慮你在這方面採取的一些舉措和投資，因為這樣做可能不太有利那裡是否會進行稅制改革？或者說您仍全力以赴地推進這項舉措？

The short answer is we're full steam ahead, and I'd like to take just another minute or two. When we committed to ENERGY STAR in 2011, which coincided with me having this opportunity, it was not about tax arbitrage, it was about building a better, more efficient home. And we've been on a consistent path for 15 years to make our homes better than they had to be as a part of what makes us different.

簡短的回答是，我們已經全速前進，我只想再花一兩分鐘。當我們在 2011 年致力於能源之星時，恰逢我擁有這個機會，這不是為了稅收套利，而是為了建立一個更好、更有效率的家園。15 年來，我們始終不渝地致力於讓我們的家園變得比原來更好，這也是我們與眾不同之處。

As you know, five years ago, we committed to Zero Energy Ready. And to date, we are the only ones that have. We made that commitment knowing the building science and not on the basis of any expectation for tax credits. In fact, the tax credit associated with Zero Energy Ready arose more than a year, I think, two years after we committed to Zero Energy Ready. So I have to tell you that it was nice. It's appropriate. It certainly provides some financial incentive. But our reason for doing it was different.

正如你們所知，五年前，我們就致力於實現零能耗準備。到目前為止，我們是唯一一家做到這一點的公司。我們是根據建築科學知識做出這項承諾的，而不是基於對稅收抵免的期望。事實上，與零能耗準備相關的稅收抵免是在我們承諾零能耗準備一年多之後出現的，我想是兩年後。所以我必須告訴你，這很棒。很合適。它確實提供了一些經濟誘因。但我們這樣做的原因不同。

I don't know anyone on any side of the political aisle that would say they should pay more for energy than they have to, and we build a home that you can pay a lot less. I don't know anyone who doesn't want a home that is comfortable in every room and still is super inexpensive to operate. And for many people, most importantly, I don't know anyone who doesn't want the cleanest possible indoor air. So when you stack those up, I do think that, between the savings, the comfort and, frankly, the health benefits of having indoor air that we are able to provide, I can't imagine going backwards.

我不知道任何政界人士會說他們應該為能源支付比實際更多的錢，我們建造的房屋可以讓你支付更少的錢。我不知道有誰不想要一個每個房間都舒適而且使用成本極其低廉的家。對許多人來說，最重要的是，我不知道有誰不想要盡可能潔淨的室內空氣。因此，當你把這些加在一起時，我確實認為，在我們能夠提供的節省、舒適以及坦率地說室內空氣帶來的健康益處之間，我無法想像會出現倒退的情況。

Now I don't know what the administration is going to do. They may attack this issue along with others, they may not. It sort of preceded IRA, where parts of the 45L code preceded the IRA. So I don't know if they're going to leave it in place or not. I can tell you, I don't think our industry is going to move backwards.

現在我不知道政府將會做什麼。他們可能會和其他人一起解決這個問題，也可能不會。它在某種程度上早於 IRA，而 45L 法典的部分內容又早於 IRA。所以我不知道他們是否會保留它。我可以告訴你，我認為我們的產業不會倒退。

I like the competitive advantage that we have. Like you don't have to talk to very many buyers about those 3 things to realize it makes a difference. And I'm frankly excited to be able to be the leader in that category.

我喜歡我們所擁有的競爭優勢。就像您不需要與許多買家談論這三件事就能意識到它會產生影響。坦白說，我很高興能夠成為該領域的領導者。

All right. Well said, and I appreciate the conviction there. If I can add one more, possibly. Just if I look at your current margins today, obviously, you expect improvement in the back half of the year. But right now, the operating margin is pretty thin in terms of cushion overall, which leads to me to believe there's at least some communities, maybe even divisions, that are kind of hovering closer to breakeven for the time being.

好的。說得好，我很欣賞這種信念。如果我可以再增加一個的話，可能吧。僅從今天的利潤率來看，顯然您預計今年下半年會有所改善。但目前，從整體的緩衝角度來看，營業利潤率相當薄弱，這使我相信，至少有一些社區，甚至一些部門，目前都徘徊在收支平衡點附近。

Can you give us any framework to think about, impairment risk or abandonment risk on any land deals or markets where the margins might be thinner than company average?

您能否為我們提供任何思考框架，例如土地交易或利潤率可能低於公司平均水平的市場中的減損風險或放棄風險？

Alan, it's Dave. A couple of things. One, we gave a pretty fulsome discussion of our impairment evaluation process in the Q. It's on page 11 of the Q. You'll note, you've been reading our Qs for a long time, nothing's changed in many, many years.

艾倫，我是戴夫。有幾件事。首先，我們在 Q 中對我們的損害評估流程進行了相當詳盡的討論。

So the methodology is exactly the same. I'd tell you a couple of other things. We don't disclose a watch list number, but I can tell you, from what we see, really don't have any expectations for material changes. Still room and still feel real comfortable, where the land position is.

因此方法論是完全相同的。我還想告訴你另外幾件事。我們不會透露觀察名單的數量，但我可以告訴你，從我們所看到的情況來看，我們確實不期望發生任何重大變化。仍有空間，仍然感覺真正舒適，土地位置也在那裡。

And I'd add a couple of other thoughts. One, when we look at the John Burn's data, you can kind of see what's happening for land in the market today. Look, I think what we're paying for land is very much in line with what our competitors are paying. We're very much in the fairway of where land prices are. And yes, margins are in a little bit of pressure right now. We expect some improvement as we go through the year, but really don't think we overpaid for land, quite frankly.

我還要補充一些其他的想法。首先，當我們查看約翰·伯恩的數據時，你就能看到目前土地市場的狀況。看，我認為我們為土地支付的價格與我們的競爭對手支付的價格非常一致。我們對土地價格的了解非常公平。是的，利潤率現在確實有點壓力。我們預計今年的情況會有所改善，但坦白說，我們真的不認為我們為土地支付了過高的價格。

And then the last thing I would tell you is, we get kind of a check on this on a pretty regular basis, right? If we have a community that's not really performing or maybe the way we underwrote it, the keys changed a little bit, and we go out and sell land, we have a pretty good idea of what we paid versus where the market is, and we feel we're right on the market. So I can't go too much further in the detail than I don't have any expectations for material changes from where we are now, given current market conditions.

我要告訴你的最後一件事是，我們會定期對此進行檢查，對嗎？如果我們有一個社區表現不佳，或者我們承保的方式發生了一些變化，那麼當我們出去出售土地時，我們很清楚我們支付的價格與市場價格相比如何，我們感覺我們正處於市場之中。因此，我無法透露太多細節，鑑於目前的市場狀況，我不認為會發生任何實質的變化。

Well, Alan, I'm not going to rebut anything Dave said, that would be silly, but I want to add something. I think a growing company will have abandonment charges as a part of the regular diligence. And ironically, I think one of the things that was most challenging for us as a company as we pivoted to growing community count, something we didn't do for a decade, was allowing ourselves the idea that pre-underwriting could result in walking away. And we went a decade without taking impairments on things that we bought. There were some previous land-held assets that got impaired.

好吧，艾倫，我不會反駁戴夫說的任何話，那很愚蠢，但我想補充一點。我認為，一家成長中的公司會將放棄費用作為常規盡職調查的一部分。諷刺的是，我認為，當我們轉向增加社區數量時，對我們公司來說最具挑戰性的事情之一就是允許自己認為預先承保可能會導致放棄，這是我們十年來從未做過的事情。我們十年來從未對所購買的物品進行減損。之前持有的一些土地資產已經減損。

But honestly, I don't want to take abandonment charges. But part of being in the market, that is a part of doing business. I do think about that as being very modest and infrequent and completely differently from impairments. But because you said abandonments, I didn't want to leave you with a misimpression. I think it is a healthy part of growing a business that there will, from time to time, be modest abandonment charges.

但說實話，我不想承擔遺棄指控。但這是市場運作的一部分，也是做生意的一部分。我確實認為這是非常溫和、不常見的，而且與損傷完全不同。但是因為你說了放棄，所以我不想給你留下錯誤的印象。我認為，在業務成長過程中，偶爾出現適度的放棄費用是一種健康現象。

(Operator Instructions) Julio Romero, Sidoti & Company.

（操作員指示）Julio Romero，Sidoti & Company。

Sorry, I was on mute there. I guess, maybe starting on, can you maybe expand on the two factors that kind of led to a little bit of sales softness in the first quarter. I think you talked about in the prepared remarks about labor availability in Texas and meter availability in California, if you could give a little more context on those 2 issues? And then also, what kind of gives you the comfort that those issues kind of won't persist?

抱歉，我剛才靜音了。我想，也許首先，您能否詳細說明一下導致第一季銷售疲軟的兩個因素。我覺得您在準備好的發言中談到了德克薩斯州的勞動力可用性和加利福尼亞州的電錶可用性，您能否就這兩個問題提供更多背景信息？而且，有什麼能讓您確信這些問題不會持續存在？

Right. So that related between them, the 47 homes, which happen to be pretty high ASP and pretty good margins, and that related to closings, not sales. Those were homes in backlog that, sitting in mid-November, we had every anticipation that they were going to close in the first quarter, and they didn't. I think 34 or 35 of them were in Houston, and they were delayed for, I would say, a good reason, and that is that the utility companies prioritize service repair over hooking up new builds.

正確的。因此，這 47 套房屋之間存在關聯，這些房屋的平均售價相當高，利潤率也相當不錯，而且這與成交量有關，而非銷售額。這些都是積壓的房屋，截至 11 月中旬，我們原本預計它們將在第一季完成交易，但事實並非如此。我認為其中有 34 或 35 個項目位於休士頓，而它們的延遲是因為我認為有充分理由，那就是公用事業公司優先考慮維修服務，而不是連接新建築。

And in October and November, there were a number of storms that led to dislocation of power in a particular part of the Greater Houston Metro area. And the power company, frankly, reallocated their resources or hooking up existing customers and repairing lines rather than doing new build work. Hard for me to find fault with that. I understand that it was disadvantageous for those buyers in backlog and for us, but temporarily.

10月和11月，大休士頓都會區部分地區遭遇多起風暴攻擊，導致斷電。坦白說，電力公司重新分配了資源，要么連接現有客戶，要么修復線路，而不是進行新建工作。我很難找出這一點的毛病。我明白，這對那些積壓的買家和我們來說都是不利的，但只是暫時的。

So that was a unique circumstance with the reallocation of labor in one part of Houston. In the other instance, it was just over a dozen homes, where there are still occasionally little gremlins in the supply chain. And we had some gas and electric meter availability from the utilities that we do business with, where they looked at us in the early part of December and said, yes, we're not getting any more before the end of December. And we said, well, fellas, we've been working on this, and it's ordinary course. And they said, yes, we'll see in January with the meters. It was a little random, but that's what happened that related to the 47 homes.

這是休士頓某地區勞動力重新分配的一個特殊情況。在另一個例子中，只有十幾個家庭，其供應鏈中偶爾仍會出現一些小問題。我們從與我們開展業務的公用事業公司獲得了一些天然氣和電錶可用性信息，他們在 12 月初查看了我們的情況並表示，是的，在 12 月底之前我們將不會再得到任何信息。我們說，好吧，夥計們，我們一直在努力解決這個問題，這是正常的進程。他們說，是的，我們將在一月份看到儀表的情況。這有點隨機，但這就是與這 47 個家庭有關的事情。

Got you. Very helpful context. So I guess no broader effect that you guys are seeing from either kind of like immigration issues or wildfires or anything of that nature?

明白了。非常有用的內容。所以我猜你們沒有看到諸如移民問題、野火或類似問題之類的更廣泛的影響？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

No, it was not related to that. They were two anomalies. And frankly, if we had, had the sales environment that we had hoped for and kind of expected, I think it probably wouldn't have been noticed. But the combination of not quite getting the gross sales that we expected and to lose that roughly 50 closings, that was not what you would call a happy daily double.

不，與此無關。他們是兩個異常現象。坦白說，如果我們擁有所希望和預期的銷售環境，我想可能不會引起注意。但是，我們並沒有獲得預期的總銷售額，而且還損失了大約 50 筆交易，這並不是所謂的快樂的每日雙倍銷售額。

Understood. And then it sounds like you're very much on track for your community count goals this year. You said you're activating more than 60 new communities before year-end. Can you maybe just touch on how does the cadence of closeouts kind of affect your expectations for the year?

明白了。那麼聽起來您今年的社區數數目標已經非常順利了。您說過，年底前將啟動 60 多個新社區。您能否簡單談談清倉節奏對您對今年的預期有何影響？

Well, sure. I mean if you -- just simple math, we're about 160. We're going to end up around 180. So if we're adding 60 plus, we're going to drop 40, right? That's the math.

嗯，當然了。我的意思是，如果你 — — 只需進行簡單的數學計算，我們大約有 160 個。我們最終會達到 180 左右。因此，如果我們增加 60 多個，我們就會減少 40，對嗎？這就是數學。

The net adds will be about 20. But that 60 in 9 months, they're not perfectly evenly distributed, but you're talking about more than one a week, right? I mean it's a lot more than that, but it's six, seven a month. So that's kind of the cadence of the startups.

淨增人數約20人。但 9 個月內有 60 次，它們並不是完全均勻分佈的，但你說的是每週不只一次，對嗎？我的意思是遠不止這些，但一個月也有六、七次。這就是新創企業的節奏。

Now -- and we've got that well controlled, like most of them will be March, April, May, June as we really have the benefit of capturing the stronger part of the so-called selling season. The closeouts will happen based on the pace of sales in those communities. So they'd probably happen on a somewhat less easily programmed cadence.

現在 - 我們已經很好地控制了這一點，就像其中大部分將是三月，四月，五月，六月一樣，因為我們真正受益於抓住所謂的銷售季節的強勁部分。清倉將根據這些社區的銷售速度進行。因此它們可能會以一種不太容易編程的節奏發生。

Very helpful. And then last one for me is just taking a broader view. Obviously, affordability is going to be a big challenge in fiscal '25. But maybe looking at a little broader than that, just talk about your ability, how you're positioned to improve margin and profitability once the broader market would improve?

非常有幫助。對我來說最後一個就是採取更廣闊的視野。顯然，負擔能力將成為25財年的一大挑戰。但也許從更廣泛的角度來看，只談論你的能力，一旦大盤好轉，你如何提高利潤率和獲利能力？

Look, I think, well, all industry participants would benefit enormously from a reduction in rates. I think we're all spending a very large share of our incentives to get to a monthly payment for the buyers that are out there. But the things that we're uniquely doing, I mean, we've absorbed all of the costs. It's been in our overhead. It's been in our gross margin.

我認為，所有行業參與者都會因降低利率而受益匪淺。我認為我們都花費了很大一部分的激勵措施來讓現有買家獲得每月的付款。但對於我們獨特做的事情，我的意思是，我們已經承擔了所有成本。它已經在我們的開銷之中了。這已經包含在我們的毛利率中了。

It's in our cost of goods sold to build a home that is fundamentally different from everybody else's. We're excited about that. And honestly, our ability to explain that, get paid for that, that is where I think we have an alpha opportunity that literally none of our competitors have.

我們建造房屋所銷售的商品成本與其他人的房屋有著根本的不同。我們對此感到非常興奮。老實說，我們有能力解釋這一點，並因此獲得報酬，我認為這就是我們擁有的阿爾法機會，而我們的競爭對手實際上都沒有。

Now if we start gaining traction in markets or in communities, I know they're going to come for us. So we've got ideas about where we need to go next. But I can tell you, for the next several years, we have a significant head start. Anyone with health issues, anyone with utility bill phobia, anyone who really is into advanced construction science, we are their builder. They may not know it yet.

現在，如果我們開始在市場或社區中獲得關注，我知道他們就會來找我們。所以我們已經知道下一步要去哪裡了。但我可以告訴你們，在接下來的幾年裡，我們已經有了顯著的領先優勢。任何有健康問題的人、任何有水電費恐懼症的人、任何真正熱衷於先進建築科學的人，我們都是他們的建造者。他們可能還不知道。

And our job is to make sure they come to know that before they buy their next home, but that's our opportunity.

我們的工作是確保他們在購買下一棟房子之前了解這一點，但這是我們的機會。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊麥坎利斯，韋德布希。

I got a few of them. So we'll just -- we'll go rattle them off as quick as I can. I guess the first one on the deportation, the immigration issues, are you all seeing any impact of that in the field yet or hearing any impact on that from your subs?

我得到了其中的幾個。因此我們會——我們會盡可能快地解決它們。我想第一個問題是關於驅逐出境、移民問題，你們是否已經看到這個問題在實地產生的影響，或者是否已經從你們的下屬那裡聽到這個問題的影響？

Jay, honestly, I have not. And we check in regularly. We've got a hotline set up internally to sort of anything, and I have not heard any news on that. I won't be surprised if there is some in markets that we do business and in the industry. But so far, I have not heard of any.

傑伊，說實話，我沒有。我們會定期檢查。我們內部設立了熱線電話，以處理各種問題，但我還沒有聽到有關這方面的任何消息。如果在我們開展業務的市場和行業中存在一些問題，我不會感到驚訝。但至今我還沒聽過。

Okay. And then could you talk about where your gross margins are on the average spec right now versus dirt starts?

好的。然後您能談談目前您的毛利率與平均值相比如何嗎？

Yes. I mean the differential is between three and five points, depending on the market. So there -- with the two and the dirts, and they're three to five points below that on the specs. So 70% of the lower number is what is leading to the current margin profile. I mean it's just the weighted average of those two numbers.

是的。我的意思是差異在三到五個百分點之間，取決於市場。因此 — — 有了這兩個和污垢，它們在規格上就低了三到五個點。因此，較低數字的 70% 是導致當前利潤率狀況的原因。我的意思是它只是這兩個數字的加權平均值。

So the math for us is simple, change the spec percentage to be a lower percentage and improve the margins on our specs. And I think there are good reasons for us to believe we can do both of those things.

因此，對我們來說，數學很簡單，將規格百分比改為較低的百分比，並提高規格的利潤率。我認為我們有充分的理由相信我們能夠做到這兩件事。

And what do you think the long-term goal should be for that (inaudible)?

你認為長期目標應該是什麼（聽不清楚）？

It's a great question. It's a little different, honestly, Jay, than I would have told you four or five years ago. I think it's a little bit higher to the spec side. If you had asked me five years ago, I would have told you 70-30 to-be-built felt really comfortable I think it's probably more like 60-40. And in some of our markets, it may be 50-50.

這是一個很好的問題。說實話，傑伊，這與我四、五年前告訴你的有些不同。我認為它的規格有點高。如果你五年前問我，我會告訴你 70% 的待建率和 30% 的建設率感覺真的很舒服，我認為可能更像是 60% 的待建率和 40% 的建設率。在我們的某些市場，這一比例可能是 50-50。

But I would like to see us get back to, and I think we can, being a majority to-be-built versus spec.

但我希望看到我們回到大多數是建設項目而非規格項目的狀態，我認為我們可以做到。

I do think sort of slaying the dragon here on the financing side is a part of it. Because you can appreciate where something is being heavily incentivized and promoted, that quick move-in home with a rate teaser, if there isn't anything that's comparable on the long-term side, it makes it harder. And that's why we put so much work into this program with our lenders to make sure that we've got an opportunity for those buyers who do want that to be built.

我確實認為，在融資方面消滅惡龍是其中的一部分。因為你可以體會到某些東西被大力激勵和推廣，例如帶有利率誘惑的快速入住房屋，如果從長期來看沒有任何可比的東西，那麼事情就會變得更加困難。這就是為什麼我們與貸款機構在這個項目上投入瞭如此多的努力，以確保我們為那些確實想要建造這座房子的買家提供機會。

And actually, could you touch on that for a second? Because I guess, from a cost differential or gross margin differential, are you giving up some of that advantage in the to-be-built by using that longer-term rate lock? And I guess -- I don't even know if you've already done this yet, but like what would the gross margin difference will be versus a spec that closes in two months versus the to-be-built that closes at seven months using that rate lock?

實際上，您能稍微談談這個問題嗎？因為我猜，從成本差異或毛利率差異來看，您是否會透過使用長期利率鎖定而放棄一些待建項目的優勢？我猜——我什至不知道你是否已經這樣做了，但是，與兩個月內完成的規格相比，與七個月內完成的待建項目相比，毛利率差異會是多少？鎖定嗎？

The way I think about it is, we are allocating incentive dollars that we generally provide to to-be-built homes in a different way. Instead of more dollars in a design center, we can use a larger share on this new structured program. And one of the things -- and I can't help myself, but one of the things that I like about our Mortgage Choice program is we really believe in choice. I mean, we insist on it, in fact. So any time we roll out a program, like the one I described today, there is more than one lender offering it.

我的想法是，我們正在以不同的方式分配通常提供給待建房屋的獎勵資金。我們不需要向設計中心投入更多資金，而是可以將更大的份額投入這個新的結構化項目。其中一件事——我情不自禁地，但是我喜歡我們的抵押貸款選擇計劃的一件事是，我們真的相信選擇。我的意思是，事實上，我們堅持要這樣做。因此，每當我們推出一個項目，例如我今天所描述的項目，就會有多家貸款機構提供該項目。

And we're never going to put the customer in a position where you can have like the Henry T Ford Model T, you can have any color as long as it's black. We have multiple lenders making those offers available. There is nothing that keeps the pencil sharp and the wits alert. We're pricing competitive than having multiple lenders competing for that buyer's business. So I think we've mitigated kind of the economic cost of that.

我們永遠不會把客戶置於這樣的境地：像亨利·T·福特 T 型車那樣，你可以選擇任何顏色，只要它是黑色。我們有多個貸款機構提供這些優惠。沒有什麼可以讓鉛筆保持鋒利並保持頭腦清醒。我們的定價比多家貸款機構爭取同一買家的業務更具競爭力。所以我認為我們已經減輕了這方面的經濟成本。

But what we're really doing, frankly, is allocating incentive dollars to rates. And that's what spec homes have been doing for the last year or two is directing their incentive dollars toward rates, and we now have a way to do that on to-be-built.

但坦白說，我們實際上正在做的是將獎勵資金分配給利率。這就是樣品屋在過去一兩年所做的事情，即將激勵資金用於提高利率，現在我們有辦法在待建房屋上做到這一點。

Okay. And then on the fiscal '25 guide, it looks like it's the same as what you all had in the fourth quarter slides, except you guys are pointing to the low end of the gross margin range. Is that -- I think that's only real change I heard in the prepared comments.

好的。然後在財政'25指南上，它看起來與你們在第四季度幻燈片中的內容相同，只是你們指向的是毛利率範圍的低端。是的——我認為這是我在準備好的評論中聽到的唯一真正的變化。

That's right. That's right, Jay. We talked about the potential that the pace will be a little bit closer to the lower side. But yes, the gross margin is really only the difference towards the 19.5%.

這是正確的。沒錯，傑伊。我們討論了步速稍微接近較低水平的可能性。但是，毛利率確實只與 19.5% 有差異。

And then if you look at the West, you guys had a decent order growth there, I think, 10%, 11%, which, based on what you said about Texas, would imply, I think, that California, Arizona, et cetera, probably we're up 30%, 40% in orders and then Texas was down. I guess, do you have the community count coming online in California and Arizona to keep that up or should we expect the West to slow down a little bit after such a robust quarter?

然後如果你看看西部，你們那裡的訂單增長不錯，我想是 10%、11%，根據你對德克薩斯州的介紹，我認為這意味著加利福尼亞州、亞利桑那州等，我們的訂單可能增加了30%、40%，而德州的訂單卻下降了。我想，您是否有加州和亞利桑那州的社區統計數據來保持這一水平，或者我們是否應該預計西部在如此強勁的季度之後會有所放緩？

Yes, I would expect that. Because what's really going on is, it has been outside of California, easier to activate communities in the West than in many of our Eastern or the Midwestern markets, just -- either because land development is simpler, the entitlement process is a little bit faster. So our community count has been able to grow in that West segment a bit faster, and that's been one of the things that has driven that.

是的，我希望如此。因為實際情況是，在加州以外，激活西部社區比在我們東部或中西部的許多市場更容易，只是因為土地開發更簡單，授權過程更快一些。因此，我們的社區數量在西部地區能夠成長得更快一些，這是推動我們成就的因素之一。

But of course, having strong sales in California and Nevada, in particular, was helpful. And I don't see reasons to think that, that's going to change anytime soon. But I do think our non-Western markets are likely to grow community count here over the next 12 months faster than our Western markets.

但當然，加州和內華達州的強勁銷售業績尤其有幫助。我不認為有理由認為這種情況會很快改變。但我確實認為，未來 12 個月，我們非西方市場的社群數量可能會比西方市場成長得更快。

I think, too, Jay, we've talked about a pace between 2.5 and 3 sales per community per month for the year, that is not in any way an elevated pace for us, right? That's kind of below what we've done historically. The business tends to run between 2.8 and 3.2. So when you think about longer-term pace, I don't think we're really in danger of getting to the point we'll see a big fall-off, to your question.

傑伊，我也認為，我們討論的是全年每個社區每月銷售 2.5 到 3 件商品的速度，這對我們來說絕對不是一個較高的速度，對嗎？這有點低於我們歷史上的水平。業務通常在 2.8 至 3.2 之間運作。因此，當你考慮長期步伐時，我認為我們不會真正面臨大幅下滑的危險，這也是你提出的問題。

And the last one I had, just knowing that you called out the $3,000 savings there. I guess, could you talk about what that $3,000 represents as a percentage of the average build -- the build cost on the home?

最後一個我剛剛知道你提到了那裡的 3,000 美元儲蓄。我想，您能談談這 3,000 美元佔平均建築成本（房屋建築成本）的百分比是多少嗎？

Yes. I mean it's about 1 point. It's a little over 1 point, actually. I mean it's 60 basis points against our ASP, and so it's a little bit more than 1% of the build cost of the home.

是的。我的意思是大約是 1 分。事實上，它略高於 1 分。我的意思是，它比我們的平均售價高出 60 個基點，所以它略高於房屋建造成本的 1%。

Thank you. At this time, we have no further questions.

謝謝。目前，我們沒有其他問題。

Okay. I want to thank everybody for joining us on our call this quarter, and we look forward to talking to you on our second quarter call. This concludes today's call. Thank you.

好的。我要感謝大家參加我們本季的電話會議，我們期待在第二季的電話會議上與您交談。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time. Thank you, and have a good day.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。