Beazer Homes USA Inc (BZH) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes earnings conference call for the third fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2025. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website later today. In addition, PowerPoint slides intended to accompany this call are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.beazer.com.

下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的第三財季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音，重播將於今天晚些時候在公司網站上提供。此外，本次電話會議的 PowerPoint 投影片可在本公司網站 www.beazer.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

At this point, I will turn the call over to David Goldberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在，我將把電話轉給資深副總裁兼財務長 David Goldberg。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes conference call discussing our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 電話會議，討論我們 2025 財年第三季的表現。

Before we begin, you should be aware that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors described in our SEC filings, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date this statement is made. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is simply not possible to predict all such factors.

在我們開始之前，您應該知道，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性的陳述。此類聲明涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的其他因素，這可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異。任何前瞻性陳述僅代表本陳述作出之日的觀點。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。新因素時有出現，而且根本不可能預測所有這些因素。

Joining me today is Allan Merrill, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. On our call today, Allan will discuss highlights from our third quarter; the current operating environment, including a discussion about our product differentiation strategy; an update on our asset alignment efforts, including the two communities we impaired in the quarter; and end with the status of our multiyear goals.

今天與我一起出席的是我們的董事長兼執行長艾倫·梅里爾 (Allan Merrill)。在今天的電話會議上，艾倫將討論我們第三季度的亮點；當前的營運環境，包括討論我們的產品差異化策略；我們的資產調整工作的最新情況，包括我們在本季度受損的兩個社區；最後介紹我們的多年目標的現狀。

I will then provide an overview of our operational response to a weaker sales environment, detailed guidance for our fourth-quarter results, and finish with updates on our balance sheet and liquidity including our outlook for land spending and share repurchases.

然後，我將概述我們對疲軟銷售環境的營運反應、對我們第四季度業績的詳細指導，最後更新我們的資產負債表和流動性，包括我們對土地支出和股票回購的展望。

Allan will conclude with a wrap up, after which we will take any questions in the remaining time.

艾倫將進行總結，之後我們將在剩餘時間內回答任何問題。

Before turning the call over, I'd like to share that we've added a new Vice President of Investor Relations, [Mark Chekanow], who's in the room with us today. Mark just joined us about a month ago, and we're very pleased to have him on the team.

在轉交電話會議之前，我想告訴大家，我們新增了一位投資者關係副總裁 [Mark Chekanow]，他今天也和我們在一起。馬克大約一個月前剛加入我們，我們很高興他能加入團隊。

I will now turn the call over to Allan.

我現在將電話轉給艾倫。

Thank you, Dave, and thank you for joining us on our call this afternoon. Despite a particularly challenging sales environment in the third quarter, we were pleased with our progress towards our multiyear goals and the resilience of our gross margin. Relative to our goals, we grew our average community count 15% to 167, successfully activating 19 communities, and we grew book value per share to over $41 as we repurchased another $12.5 million in stock. We also generated an adjusted homebuilding gross margin of 18.4%, up slightly versus Q2. And as margins on our newer homes overcame higher incentives and an elevated spec mix.

謝謝你，戴夫，謝謝你今天下午參加我們的電話會議。儘管第三季的銷售環境特別具有挑戰性，但我們對實現多年目標的進展和毛利率的彈性感到滿意。相對於我們的目標，我們的平均社區數量增長了 15%，達到 167 個，成功激活了 19 個社區，並且由於我們回購了價值 1250 萬美元的股票，每股賬面價值增長至 41 美元以上。我們還實現了 18.4% 的調整後住宅建築毛利率，較第二季略有上升。而且，我們新房的利潤率克服了更高的激勵措施和更高的規格組合。

Weighing against these accomplishments were several headwinds that impacted our sales results. At a macro level, affordability concerns and rising new and used home inventories impacted both traffic and sales conversion. While it's possible for us to know if or when mortgage rates may decline, we believe new home inventories will gradually be absorbed over the next several quarters because builders have already reduced start activity. Longer term, the structural housing shortage supports demand for new homes in our markets.

與這些成就相反的是，一些不利因素影響了我們的銷售表現。從宏觀層面來看，對負擔能力的擔憂以及新舊房屋庫存的增加都影響了客流量和銷售轉換率。雖然我們有可能知道抵押貸款利率是否會下降或何時下降，但我們相信，由於建築商已經減少了開工活動，新房庫存將在未來幾季逐漸被吸收。從長遠來看，結構性住房短缺支撐了我們市場對新房屋的需求。

Within our business, sales paces during the quarter vary greatly. In Texas, which represents approximately 40% of our active communities, our pace was disappointing at 1.3 sales per community per month, well below our recent third-quarter absorption rates for the state, which have ranged from 1.9 to 3.1. These are among the markets that experienced the largest buildup of new home inventories during the spring.

在我們的業務中，季度內的銷售速度差異很大。在德州（約占我們活躍社區的40%），我們的銷售速度令人失望，每個社區每月僅售出1.3套房屋，遠低於我們近期該州第三季度的吸收率（該州的吸收率在1.9套至3.1套之間）。這些市場是春季新房庫存累積最多的市場之一。

Despite near-term traffic and sales challenges in Texas, we remain bullish on the state. Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio are growing and economically vibrant, and we've got experienced teams and well-located communities in each city. And we're making product feature and incentive changes, which are showing early signs of success.

儘管德州近期面臨交通和銷售挑戰，但我們仍然看好該州。達拉斯、休士頓和聖安東尼奧正在發展並且經濟活躍，我們在每個城市都有經驗豐富的團隊和地理位置優越的社區。我們正在進行產品功能和激勵措施的變革，這些變革已初顯成效。

Sales paces in our other markets were largely in line with our expectations for the quarter. we acknowledge that builders who have reduced home sizes, feature levels, or performance standards to be able to offer lower home prices have exceeded our sales paces this year. So I'd like to discuss the rationale for our commitment to a differentiated product and customer experience strategy.

我們其他市場的銷售速度基本上符合我們對本季的預期。我們承認，今年那些為了提供更低房價而縮小房屋面積、功能水平或性能標準的建築商的銷售速度超過了我們的銷售速度。因此，我想討論我們致力於差異化產品和客戶體驗策略的理由。

Today, we are both the number one energy efficient homebuilder in the country and the highest-rated national homebuilder for customer service according to TrustBuilder. Attaining these positions has taken time and commitment, but we believe they will lead to substantial returns to shareholders over time.

如今，我們不僅是全國排名第一的節能住宅建築商，而且根據 TrustBuilder 的評價，我們是全國客戶服務評級最高的住宅建築商。獲得這些地位需要時間和承諾，但我們相信，隨著時間的推移，它們將為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

Let's dig a little deeper into how we are building a unique energy efficiency position. First, we identified a pervasive consumer pain point around utility bills, namely their size and rate of growth. Then we had to create a solution.

讓我們更深入地了解我們如何建立獨特的能源效率地位。首先，我們發現了消費者普遍存在的水電費痛點，也就是水電費的金額和成長率。然後我們必須創建一個解決方案。

Committing to ENERGY STAR and then Zero Energy Ready across all product types and all climate zones in specifying different materials and construction processes. From slab insulation to 2x6 framing, to enhanced insulation and house wrap systems to HVAC equipment with advanced heat pumps and proprietary inverters.

致力於符合能源之星標準，然後在所有產品類型和所有氣候區中指定不同的材料和施工工藝，實現零能耗。從板坯絕緣到 2x6 框架，再到增強絕緣和房屋包裹系統，再到配備先進熱泵和專有逆變器的 HVAC 設備。

Our peers simply don't do these things, so we had to create a different supply chain and recruit a more technically advanced trade base to build these homes. Now, our efforts are focused on demonstrating to homebuyers and realtors that our homes are different, they're better, and we can prove it.

我們的同行根本不做這些事情，所以我們必須創建不同的供應鏈並招募技術更先進的貿易基礎來建造這些房屋。現在，我們的努力集中在向購屋者和房地產經紀人證明我們的房屋與眾不同、品質更佳，而且我們可以證明這一點。

I was in one of our model homes in Indianapolis recently. And our team showed me a display of two movable wall sections demonstrating to buyers completely different construction methods. A picture is shown on the slide. One side is code built and the other is Beazer built.

我最近參觀了我們在印第安納波利斯的其中一棟樣品屋。我們的團隊向我展示了兩個可移動牆體部分，向買家展示了完全不同的施工方法。投影片上顯示了一張圖片。一側是代碼構建的，另一側是 Beazer 構建的。

The sensation of swinging open each of these panels by hand and feeling the difference in the weight of our materials was kind of amazing. I'm convinced that anyone who feels that difference will intuitively understand that we're building something radically different and obviously better.

用手打開每一塊面板並感受到材料重量的差異，這種感覺真是令人驚訝。我相信，任何感受到這種差異的人都會直觀地明白，我們正在建立一些完全不同且明顯更好的東西。

Of course, to generate shareholder returns from our efforts, we must get paid for building a better home. And on that score, there's still room for improvement. So far, we've lowered the average construction cost premium to around $8,500 per home or roughly $55 a month if we pass that entire cost on to buyers. But here's the thing. Our homes cost a lot less to operate, often by hundreds of dollars per month. That means these investments pay for themselves immediately before attributing any value to our homes comfort, durability, and health benefits.

當然，為了從我們的努力中獲得股東回報，我們必須因建立更美好的家園而獲得報酬。從這一點來看，仍有改進的空間。到目前為止，我們已將平均建築成本溢價降低至每套房屋約 8,500 美元，或者如果我們將全部成本轉嫁給買家，則約為每月 55 美元。但事情是這樣的。我們的房屋營運成本要低得多，通常每月可以節省數百美元。這意味著這些投資在為我們的家居舒適度、耐用性和健康益處帶來任何價值之前就已經立即收回成本。

Unlike a race to the bottom on features and prices, super low utility bills is a unique market position, and one that we are positioned to own. As we further reduced the cost to build these homes and continue to refine our sales process, we believe our profitability has a lot of upside.

與功能和價格的競相壓價不同，超低水電費是獨特的市場地位，也是我們有能力擁有的。隨著我們進一步降低建造這些房屋的成本並繼續完善我們的銷售流程，我們相信我們的盈利能力將有很大的上升空間。

We've been clear about our intention to improve returns while we grow, which requires attention to both profitability and capital efficiency. We think about capital efficiency in terms of both the structure and the position of each community.

我們明確表示，我們希望在發展的同時提高回報，這需要同時關注獲利能力和資本效率。我們從每個社區的結構和地位兩個角度來考慮資本效率。

We've had a lot of success on the structuring side, doubling our option lot percentage to 60% over the past five years. This improvement has allowed us to increase our active controlled lots by more than 55%, which will continue to fuel community count growth, even as we've reduced our owned lots.

我們在結構方面取得了巨大成功，過去五年來我們的期權份額百分比翻了一番，達到 60%。這項改進使我們能夠將活躍控制地塊的數量增加 55% 以上，即使我們減少了自有地塊的數量，這也將繼續推動社區數量的增長。

We're also improving the positioning of our communities to drive returns. This can mean selling excess lots, adjusting product types or features or changing pricing strategies. We own or control more than $3 billion of land, and we remain convinced we couldn't replace it on our cost basis. Still, actively manage the portfolio to improve returns.

我們也正在改善社區的定位以推動回報。這可能意味著出售多餘的批次、調整產品類型或功能或改變定價策略。我們擁有或控制價值超過 30 億美元的土地，我們仍然相信，以我們的成本基礎，我們無法取代它。儘管如此，仍要積極管理投資組合以提高回報。

Over the past 12 months, we've sold $45 million of land that was not core to our strategy, generating about $8 million in gross profit. In other cases, we've changed plans, elevations, or features to better fit customer needs.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們出售了價值 4,500 萬美元的非核心戰略土地，產生了約 800 萬美元的毛利。在其他情況下，我們改變了計劃、立面或功能，以便更好地滿足客戶的需求。

And of course, sometimes we change our intentions based on market conditions. Two such cases arose during the third quarter, resulting in modest impairments. The first is a community in the Maricopa submarket of Phoenix, which has become increasingly price-sensitive since our initial investment. As such, we decided to aggressively reprice our remaining homes and sell the balance of our finished lots. We have no other investments in Maricopa.

當然，有時我們會根據市場狀況改變我們的意圖。第三季發生了兩起此類案件，造成了輕微的損失。第一個是鳳凰城馬里科帕子市場的一個社區，自從我們最初投資以來，該社區對價格的敏感度越來越高。因此，我們決定積極重新定價我們剩餘的房屋並出售剩餘的已完成地塊。我們在馬里科帕沒有其他投資。

The second is a condo community in Orlando. The condo market in Florida has become quite challenging, largely due to rising insurance and HOA costs for homeowners. During the quarter, we decided these conditions were likely to persist indefinitely, so we adjusted pricing to accelerate our return of capital. We have no other active or planned condo communities in Florida.

第二個是奧蘭多的一個公寓社區。佛羅裡達州的公寓市場變得相當具有挑戰性，主要是由於房主的保險和 HOA 成本不斷上漲。在本季度，我們認為這些情況可能會無限期地持續下去，因此我們調整了定價以加快資本回報。我們在佛羅裡達州沒有其他活躍或計劃中的公寓社區。

We conduct a robust review of the entire portfolio every quarter with a consistent methodology that we detail in our 10-Qs and 10-Ks. While these two instances led to impairment, our review process this quarter did not identify any material risk of further impairments.

我們每季都會對整個投資組合進行嚴格的審查，並採用一致的方法，詳述於我們的 10-Q 和 10-K 中。雖然這兩起事件導致了減值，但我們本季的審查過程並未發現任何進一步減損的重大風險。

Shifting now to our multiyear goals. We remain on track to achieve each of these objectives. Reaching our goal of exceeding 200 communities by the end of fiscal 2027 would result in a double-digit five-year compound annual growth rate in community count, creating a platform for significant top- and bottom-line growth. With 167 active communities and nearly 27,000 active lots under control, we have a clear path to reaching this goal over the next two years.

現在轉向我們的多年目標。我們仍在按計劃實現上述每個目標。如果我們能在 2027 財年末實現社區數量超過 200 個的目標，那麼社區數量五年複合年增長率將達到兩位數，從而為顯著的收入和利潤增長創造平台。我們已控制了 167 個活躍社區和近 27,000 個活躍地段，我們有明確的途徑在未來兩年內實現這一目標。

While additional investments could enhance this growth, given current market conditions, we're deliberately slowing land spend so that we can allocate more capital toward our two other goals.

雖然額外的投資可以促進這一成長，但考慮到當前的市場狀況，我們有意放緩土地支出，以便我們可以為另外兩個目標分配更多的資金。

Our leverage goal remains to reach a net debt to net capitalization ratio in the low 30% range by the end of fiscal 2027. An increase in community count and slowing land spend should contribute to an accelerated rate of deleveraging in fiscal 2026.

我們的槓桿目標仍是在 2027 財政年度結束時將淨負債與淨資本化比率控制在 30% 以下。社區數量的增加和土地支出的放緩應該會加速 2026 財年的去槓桿速度。

Our final goal is to generate a double-digit compound annual growth rate in book value per share through the end of fiscal 2027. This would equate to a book value in the mid-50s. We expect to achieve this goal through a combination of profitability and share repurchases. We've been actively repurchasing our shares at a discount to book in recent quarters with a year-to-date spend of $33 million at an average price just over $22. With $87 million remaining on our authorization, we have ample capacity to continue our buyback.

我們的最終目標是在 2027 財年末實現每股帳面價值的兩位數複合年增長率。這相當於 50 年代中期的帳面價值。我們希望透過獲利和股票回購相結合的方式來實現這一目標。最近幾季，我們一直以低於帳面價值的價格積極回購股票，年初至今的支出為 3,300 萬美元，平均價格略高於 22 美元。我們的授權金額還剩下 8700 萬美元，我們有足夠的能力繼續回購。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Allan. We have detailed our third-quarter 2025 results in our presentation, our press release, and our 10-Q. And of course, we're happy to discuss them during the Q&A portion of this call.

謝謝，艾倫。我們在簡報、新聞稿和 10-Q 中詳細介紹了 2025 年第三季的業績。當然，我們很高興在本次電話會議的問答環節討論這些問題。

There's no question the sales environment has been weaker than we anticipated. While we remain highly optimistic about our strategy and prospects, we are aggressively responding to current conditions. These actions include renegotiating the pricing and terms on land contracts and rebidding land development and vertical construction trade and material agreements. While these actions will only slightly benefit our fourth quarter, they should contribute to a much more profitable fiscal 2026.

毫無疑問，銷售環境比我們預期的要弱。雖然我們對我們的策略和前景仍然非常樂觀，但我們正在積極應對當前的情況。這些行動包括重新談判土地合約的價格和條款，以及重新招標土地開發和垂直建築貿易和材料協議。雖然這些舉措只會為我們的第四季帶來輕微的收益，但它們應該有助於我們實現 2026 財年的更大利潤。

With that said, let's start with our expectations for the fourth quarter. We note that our outlook contemplates conditions remaining relatively consistent to what we're seeing now in the market. We expect sales to be relatively flat versus the same period last year as a higher community count offsets a slower pace.

話雖如此，讓我們先來談談對第四季的預期。我們注意到，我們的展望考慮到條件與我們目前在市場上看到的情況保持相對一致。我們預計銷售額將與去年同期相比持平，因為社區數量的增加抵消了成長速度的放緩。

We expect to end the fourth quarter with around 175 communities, up about 8% year over year. We anticipate closing between 1,200 and 1,300 homes in the quarter with an ASP around $535,000. The sequential increase in ASP is a function of product and community mix shift. Adjusted gross margins should remain around 18% as specs continue to represent an elevated share of our closings.

我們預計第四季末社區數量將達到 175 個左右，年增約 8%。我們預計本季將售出 1,200 至 1,300 套房屋，平均售價約為 535,000 美元。平均售價的連續成長是產品和社區結構轉變的結果。由於規格在我們成交量中繼續佔較高份額，調整後的毛利率應保持在 18% 左右。

SG&A should be around 11.5% of total revenue. We remain focused on adjusting our overhead to be in line with current conditions and expect improved SG&A leverage in fiscal 2026. We expect land sale revenue to be above prior periods and to contribute to profitability as we manage our portfolio to enhance returns. All in, this should generate about $50 million in adjusted EBITDA.

銷售、一般及行政費用應佔總收入的 11.5% 左右。我們將繼續專注於調整管理費用以適應當前情況，並預計 2026 財年的銷售、一般和行政費用槓桿率將有所提高。我們預計土地出售收入將高於前期，並在我們管理投資組合以提高回報的同時，為盈利做出貢獻。總體而言，這將產生約 5000 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue should be just over 3%. Given our expectations for energy efficiency tax credits and our pretax income, we are anticipating generating a net tax benefit of several million dollars in the quarter. This should all lead to diluted earnings per share of just above $0.80.

利息攤銷佔房屋建築收入的百分比應略高於 3%。考慮到我們對能源效率稅收抵免的預期和我們的稅前收入，我們預計本季將產生數百萬美元的淨稅收收益。這一切將使每股攤薄收益略高於 0.80 美元。

Our balance sheet remains healthy with total liquidity at the end of the third quarter exceeding $290 million. We expect to end the fiscal year with total liquidity around where we ended fiscal 2024 and with nothing drawn against our revolver and no maturities until October 2027. We view our current valuation is compelling and have the flexibility to allocate additional capital to share repurchases.

我們的資產負債表保持健康，第三季末的總流動資金超過 2.9 億美元。我們預計本財年結束時的總流動性將與 2024 財年結束時的水平大致相同，並且不會從我們的循環信貸中提取任何資金，並且在 2027 年 10 月之前不會到期。我們認為我們目前的估值很有吸引力，並且可以靈活地分配額外資本用於股票回購。

So far this year, we've repurchased about 1.5 million shares or about 5% of the company. We anticipate continued share repurchases as part of our capital allocation strategy, though the magnitude will vary quarter to quarter based on our share price, profitability, and land spend.

今年到目前為止，我們已經回購了約 150 萬股，約占公司股份的 5%。作為資本配置策略的一部分，我們預期股票回購將繼續進行，但回購規模將根據我們的股價、獲利能力和土地支出而逐季度變化。

During the third quarter, we spent $154 million on land acquisition and development, reflecting our decision to slow land spending. For the full year, we now expect to total land spend to be between $700 million and $750 million with an option percentage above 60%. This should result in an active controlled lot position similar to the end of last year, utilizing more option contracts improve asset turns and will accelerate growth and boost returns when sales paces normalize.

第三季度，我們在土地收購和開發上花費了 1.54 億美元，這反映出我們決定放緩土地支出。就全年而言，我們目前預計土地總支出將在 7 億至 7.5 億美元之間，選擇權比例將超過 60%。這應該會導致與去年年底類似的活躍受控地段頭寸，利用更多的期權合約改善資產週轉率，並在銷售速度正常化時加速增長並提高回報。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Allan.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給艾倫。

Thanks, Dave. The simplest summary I can provide to this. We're responding to the current environment while still strengthening our differentiated market position.

謝謝，戴夫。我能提供的最簡單的總結就是如此。我們正在應對當前環境，同時仍在加強我們差異化的市場地位。

In addition to moderating our land spend, we're evaluating our existing lot positions and managing our portfolio to maximize returns on each asset. We're also in the midst of a broad effort to renegotiate contracts and agreements for land, labor, and materials. These steps should boost near-term profitability and cash flow.

除了控制土地支出外，我們還在評估現有的地塊狀況並管理投資組合，以最大化每項資產的回報。我們也正在大力重新談判土地、勞力和材料的合約和協議。這些措施應該會提高近期的獲利能力和現金流。

At the same time, we remain focused on executing our differentiated strategy, including delivering the most energy-efficient homes and providing a best-in-class customer experience. Taken together, we believe succeeding in these areas will enable us to drive long-term shareholder returns.

同時，我們仍然專注於執行我們的差異化策略，包括提供最節能的住宅和提供一流的客戶體驗。總之，我們相信在這些領域取得成功將使我們能夠推動長期股東回報。

We have the strategy and the resources to achieve our goals, and I'm proud of the entire Beazer team for their dedication to our customers, our partners, our communities, and to each other.

我們擁有實現目標的策略和資源，我為整個 Beazer 團隊對我們的客戶、合作夥伴、社區以及彼此的奉獻精神感到自豪。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to take us into Q&A.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給接線生，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Tyler Batory, Oppenheimer.

（操作員指示）泰勒·巴托里，奧本海默。

Good afternoon. Thank you. Allan, I appreciate the detail you gave on sales pace. But I just wanted to start there and dig a little deeper. It sounds like it was mostly a Texas issue, but can you talk a little bit more broadly in terms of how you're balancing pace and price talk a little bit more too about if there's potentially a lower bound that you're willing to accept on the pace side of things.

午安.謝謝。艾倫，我很欣賞你提供的有關銷售速度的詳細資訊。但我只是想從那裡開始並深入挖掘一下。聽起來這主要是德克薩斯州的問題，但您能否更廣泛地談談您如何平衡速度和價格，再多談談是否存在一個您願意接受的速度方面的下限。

And you also talk a little bit about demand too. I think one of the trends of earnings season so far as the demand fairly inelastic out there. So just wanted to get a perspective on what you're seeing in the market.

您也談了一點需求問題。我認為，迄今為止收益季的趨勢之一是需求相當缺乏彈性。所以只是想了解你在市場上看到的情況。

Sure. We're kind of -- two or three questions in there. I do think that your comment about the elasticity or lack of elasticity in demand is pretty accurate. You can't fix confidence with price, and that's definitely one of the phenomena that we see out there. And there are lots of things that can erode confidence, whether it's more inventory or income and security or other things. So we didn't see a big opportunity to get really dramatic with pricing to chase volume.

當然。我們有點——這裡有兩三個問題。我確實認為您關於需求彈性或缺乏彈性的評論非常準確。你不能用價格來改變信心，這絕對是我們看到的現象之一。有許多因素都會削弱信心，無論是庫存增加、收入增加、安全增加或其他因素。因此，我們並沒有看到透過大幅調價來追逐銷量的巨大機會。

Having said that, there's no question, and I said it pretty clearly. I was disappointed with, in the aggregate, how we did in Texas. I don't expect that we'll have another quarter like that in Texas. Our communities are better than that. And I just think we got caught a little bit with blow up in inventory in the market and just didn't push hard enough, so we will.

話雖如此，毫無疑問，而且我說得很清楚。總的來說，我對我們在德克薩斯州的表現感到失望。我預計德克薩斯州不會再出現這樣的情況。我們的社區比那更好。我只是覺得，我們陷入了市場庫存激增的困境，而且沒有採取足夠的措施，所以我們會採取進一步的措施。

We've made a lot of adjustments to product, to our strategies there from a marketing standpoint. And as I said in the comments, I feel a little better about where we are as we exited the quarter and enter the fourth quarter.

從行銷角度來看，我們對產品和策略做了許多調整。正如我在評論中所說的那樣，當我們結束本季並進入第四季度時，我對我們所處的位置感覺好一些。

But I also made the point that outside of Texas, really broadly, the results were in line with expectations. And there were -- it was interesting. There were highlights in different parts of the country. I know that it's always better if we can just hit a single theme. It's easier to digest.

但我也指出，在德州以外的地區，整體而言，結果符合預期。而且——這很有趣。全國各地都有精彩的活動。我知道如果我們能圍繞著一個主題，效果會更好。它更容易消化。

But just to give you an example, we saw strength in Virginia. I think that had something to do with the return to office that's happening in DC. We also saw strength in Myrtle Beach, which is really a retirement in the second home market. And our Southern California business performed really well in the third quarter. It's just chronically undersupplied. So really different demographics and drivers in different parts of the country.

舉個例子，我們看到了維吉尼亞州的實力。我認為這與華盛頓特區正在發生的復工潮有關。我們也看到了默特爾比奇的強勁表現，那裡實際上是一個適合退休人士的第二套房市場。我們的南加州業務在第三季表現非常好。只是長期供應不足。因此，全國各地的人口結構和驅動因素確實存在差異。

So the opportunity to try and fit all of the demand and pace and margin stuff into a simple soundbite is awfully tough. I think that outside of Texas, we competed pretty well. Inside Texas, we needed to compete a little harder and we will.

因此，嘗試將所有需求、節奏和利潤等內容融入一個簡單的聲音片段中是非常困難的。我認為在德州以外，我們的競爭相當激烈。在德克薩斯州，我們需要更加努力地競爭，我們會的。

Okay, very good detail there. Thank you. On the cost side of the equation, Obviously, you build a little bit of a different home compared with some of the other homebuilders out there. So you're interested in what you're seeing. On the labor front, there's been some more availability out there, how you're handling material costs as well, which is kind of how all of those factors are working for you given that you do build a limit of a different home than some of the peers?

好的，細節非常好。謝謝。從成本角度來看，顯然，與其他一些房屋建築商相比，您建造的房屋略有不同。所以你對所看到的東西很感興趣。在勞動力方面，那裡有更多的可用性，您如何處理材料成本，考慮到您建造的房屋與一些同行有所不同，所有這些因素對您有何影響？

Hey, Tyler, it's Dave. I hope you well, Tyler. A couple of things to think about. Certainly, we get a lot of questions on tariffs. We haven't seen much impact from tariffs on our material costs. But I think there's probably a more important story there for us.

嘿，泰勒，我是戴夫。我希望你一切都好，泰勒。有幾件事需要考慮。當然，我們收到了很多有關關稅的問題。我們沒有看到關稅對我們的材料成本產生太大影響。但我認為這裡可能還有一個對我們來說更重要的故事。

And Allan talked about it in his remarks in the script. We're making some really good progress on our -- both in the cost and zero energy writing, and then our costs more broadly. And we've been driving down our direct costs, quite frankly, and we think we're going to see a lot of that benefit as we move into 2026, the benefit from the cost savings that we're generating.

艾倫在劇本的發言中也談到了這一點。我們在成本和零能耗寫作方面以及更廣泛的成本方面都取得了一些非常好的進展。坦白說，我們一直在降低直接成本，我們認為，到 2026 年，我們將會看到很多好處，也就是我們所節省的成本帶來的好處。

So from a cost perspective, I think you'll see more. I think we've had some opportunities to take some costs out.

因此從成本角度來看，我認為你會看到更多。我認為我們有一些機會來降低一些成本。

And certainly, you mentioned labor. I think there are some opportunities there. And it's not just going to be on the cost side in terms of renegotiating with trades. I think there's some benefit on the cycle time and picking up some days on the cycle time as we move into '26. So I think there's some good opportunity for us. And obviously, we're always changing kind of features and included futures to make sure we have the right cost to hit affordability.

當然，您提到了勞動力。我認為那裡有一些機會。就重新談判貿易而言，這不僅僅是成本方面的問題。我認為，隨著我們進入 26 年，週期時間會有一些好處，週期時間會縮短幾天。所以我認為對我們來說這是一個好機會。顯然，我們一直在改變各種功能和未來內容，以確保我們擁有合適的成本來達到可負擔的價格。

Okay. And the last question, maybe a little bit more housekeeping. What percentage of orders or closings in the quarter were spec? Where are you thinking in terms of that number for the full year? And I know it's a little bit elevated versus where it's been in the past. How much of a headwind is that in terms of gross margin this year given that mix?

好的。最後一個問題，可能有點複雜。本季訂單或成交量中有多少百分比是規格訂單？您認為全年的數字是多少？我知道與過去相比，現在的情況有所上升。考慮到這種組合，這對今年的毛利率來說有多大的阻力？

Yeah. So -- absolutely, Tyler. So -- we've been talking about the SG&A, the spec count as a percentage being around high-60s. I'm not going to give a specific fourth quarter number but certainly, we expect it to remain elevated around that level. And then based on where we are in that closing kind of range that we gave, that will be determined of what the spec count looks like.

是的。所以——絕對的，泰勒。所以——我們一直在談論銷售、一般和行政費用，規格計數的百分比約為 60% 以上。我不會給出具體的第四季度數字，但我們預計它將保持在該水平附近。然後，根據我們給出的收盤範圍，確定規格數量。

I think the other thing that's important to think about, you mentioned gross margin, they're certainly -- we baked into our guidance a little bit of increased closing costs as we moved into Q4, and that caused some of the gross margin pressures you've seen. Look, we're really happy. We feel good in the [18s]. We've been able to be resilient in the 18s but sequentially and just kind of quarter to quarter, it's probably up a little bit.

我認為需要考慮的另一件重要的事情是，您提到了毛利率，它們當然是——隨著我們進入第四季度，我們在指導中考慮了一點增加的成交成本，這導致了您所看到的一些毛利率壓力。瞧，我們真的很高興。我們感覺很好[18秒]。我們在 18 歲以下兒童中表現出了韌性，但按季度來看，可能還會略有上升。

Okay, awesome. I'll leave it there. That's all for me. Thank you.

好的，太棒了。我就把它留在那裡。對我來說就這些了。謝謝。

Julio Romero, Sidoti & Company.

胡里奧·羅梅羅，西多蒂公司。

Great thanks. Hey, good afternoon everyone. Staying on the gross margin topic for a bit. Can you maybe just talk about this quarter and rank what are the drivers of how you were able to meet the homebuilder gross margin guidance that you gave last quarter despite what looks like lower ASPs in a tougher demand environment than what was already expected.

非常感謝。嘿，大家下午好。繼續討論一下毛利率話題。您能否簡單談談本季度的情況，並分析一下，儘管在比預期更為嚴峻的需求環境下，平均售價似乎有所下降，但您仍然能夠達到上個季度給出的房屋建築商毛利率指導的驅動因素是什麼？

I know you called out some spec profitability improvements, some Zero Energy Ready homes comprising a greater part of the mix, but if you could just help us think about these drivers in the quarter.

我知道您提到了一些規格盈利能力的提高，一些零能耗住宅佔了很大一部分，但您是否能幫助我們思考一下本季度的這些驅動因素？

Sure. Julio, it's Dave. Look, I think Allan started in his comments, and I think it's exactly right. We're really happy with the resilience of our gross margin. And that's honestly newer homes and our efforts to bring down those energy rate costs I was talking about before with standing kind of higher incentives and frankly, that higher mix of specs that we're seeing.

當然。胡里歐，我是戴夫。瞧，我認為艾倫在他的評論中已經開始這樣做了，我認為這是完全正確的。我們對毛利率的彈性感到非常滿意。老實說，這就是較新的房屋，也是我們為降低能源成本所做的努力，我之前談到過，我們採取了更高的激勵措施，坦白說，我們看到了更高的規格組合。

So I would tell you that's the biggest kind of driver when you think about the gross margin, it's really the resilience that we're seeing in gross margin. And so it's newer homes in newer communities and frankly, our efforts to help reduce costs.

所以我想告訴你，當你考慮毛利率時，這是最大的驅動因素，這確實是我們在毛利率中看到的彈性。因此，這是新社區中的新房屋，坦白說，我們努力幫助降低成本。

Excellent. Very helpful. And then thinking a little bit about your differentiated energy-efficient homes. Can you speak a little bit about the strategy to communicate that differentiation to the consumer? That kind of reliant on word of mouth, or are there more structured education or the marketing initiatives in the works?

出色的。非常有幫助。然後再稍微思考一下您的差異化節能住宅。您能否簡單談談向消費者傳達這種差異化的策略？是那種依賴口耳相傳，還是有更多結構化的教育或行銷舉措正在進行中？

It's a little bit of everything except the Super Bowl ad. There is some brand marketing. But really, it's about the experience that our prospects and the realtors have when they visit a community. It's why I was so excited. And I mean, I realize it was a little unusual to put it in the earnings script, but I was still excited when I was India a couple of weeks ago, and the team showed me something that they came up with because we challenged all of our divisions to think about how do we show tell what we're doing that it's different.

除了超級盃廣告之外，其他都有點意思。有一些品牌行銷。但實際上，這與我們的潛在客戶和房地產經紀人訪問社區時的體驗有關。這就是我如此興奮的原因。我的意思是，我意識到把它放在收益腳本中有點不尋常，但幾週前我在印度時仍然很興奮，團隊向我展示了他們想出的東西，因為我們挑戰我們所有的部門思考如何展示我們正在做的事情是不同的。

You can show her scores or ACH scores, you can show utility bills. But how do you create that visceral sense that this is just really different. And I thought it was absolutely genius that they just were able to mount these two wall panels and pivot them and they're easily movable, but one is way heavier than the other.

您可以向她展示分數或 ACH 分數，也可以顯示水電費帳單。但是你要如何才能創造出這種發自內心的感覺，讓人們覺得這真的很不一樣呢？我認為他們能夠將這兩塊牆板安裝起來並旋轉，而且可以輕鬆移動，這真是太天才了，但其中一塊比另一塊重得多。

And I just felt like that was one of those aha moments where we found something we found mechanism to tell a story. The old adage, if a picture is worth a thousand words, a movable wall panel is probably worth 5,000 words.

我只是覺得那是一個頓悟的時刻，我們發現了一些東西，找到了講述故事的機制。俗話說，如果一張圖片勝過千言萬語，那麼一塊可移動的牆板可能就勝過五千個字。

And look, we're definitely trying to innovate like building this home is different. So telling the story is different. And it's an all-out effort across every division to find ways to connect.

瞧，我們確實在嘗試創新，例如建造這棟與眾不同的房子。所以講故事的方式是不同的。每個部門都在竭盡全力尋找聯繫。

And I'll just add one degree of difficulty, for those first-time buyers who are coming out of an apartment or for that empty nester buyer who is downsizing, the way that we connect this is slightly different. Now, what they have in common is a much lower utility bill. But for that first-time buyer, it's about accessing the opportunity to have home ownership because they're all-in costs are within a zone that they can afford.

我只想補充一點難度，對於那些剛從公寓搬出的首次購房者或正在縮小規模的空巢購房者來說，我們處理這個問題的方式略有不同。現在，他們的共同點是水電費要低得多。但對於首次購屋者來說，這意味著他們有機會擁有自己的房子，因為他們的所有成本都在他們所能負擔的範圍內。

For that move down or for that empty nester home buyer, it's about connecting with look, your income isn't going up. It's probably fixed, having certainty around your utility bills and having a better built home that you've earned after all the years that you've worked, like that's just a different kind of conversation.

對於搬家者或空巢購屋者來說，重要的是要看清事實，你的收入不會增加。這可能是固定的，你的水電費帳單是確定的，而且你經過多年的工作，擁有了一個更好的房子，就像這只是一種不同的談話。

And so seminars and teach-ins and flyers. But yeah, it's all of those things. But what it's really about is finding the opportunity to connect the value with each type of buyer that we see. And I'd say the learning curve is steep, but it's exciting, like it's better every quarter.

還有研討會、示威遊行和傳單。但確實，這些都是事實。但真正的重點是找到機會將價值與我們看到的每種類型的買家聯繫起來。我想說學習曲線很陡峭，但很令人興奮，好像每季都會變得更好。

Thanks so much for the color. I'll pass it on.

非常感謝這個顏色。我會傳達的。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，澤爾曼與合夥人公司。

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for all the details so far. I'm hoping you can help clarify the guidance a little bit for me. I'm having a hard time understanding a little bit of it. So specifically on the orders, your guidance for flat orders year on year, that would imply a pretty healthy sequential ramp in orders about 20%. And I'm looking at your business historically, I've only seen one year in the last 30, where your fourth-quarter orders were higher than 3Q. And I understand this quarter was disappointing, but I look at your margin guide, it's pretty flat quarter over quarter. So it doesn't seem like you're drastically changing the incentive strategy or the pricing strategy. And I didn't hear much commentary that the markets meaningfully improved over the last handful of weeks. So can you just help explain a little bit the optimism why orders are going to be up by that magnitude over the third quarter?

嘿，大家好。午安.感謝您提供迄今為止的所有詳細資訊。我希望您能幫我稍微澄清一下指導。我有點難以理解其中的一點。因此，具體到訂單方面，您預計訂單量將與去年同期持平，這意味著訂單量將環比健康增長 20% 左右。我從歷史角度回顧了你們的業務，在過去 30 年裡，只有一年你們第四季的訂單量高於第三季。我知道這個季度令人失望，但我看了你的利潤指南，它與上一季相比相當平穩。因此看起來您並沒有大幅改變激勵策略或定價策略。我沒有聽到太多關於過去幾週市場明顯改善的評論。那麼，您能否稍微解釋一下為什麼第三季訂單量會出現如此大幅度的上漲？

Well, look, I've got to look, Alan, because we have a little bit of different numbers and I got to look at your model, but frankly, we talked about relatively flat. And we talked about 8% community count growth. And so when you kind of look at the year-over-year change in pace, I think it implies a pace that we're pretty comfortable getting to. It is a little bit better sequentially. That's absolutely true but we do tend to have a little better quarters -- months, excuse me, as we get into the end of the year. So we feel pretty comfortable, and Allan talked about some improvements in taxes and things that we're doing. We feel pretty comfortable with the pace that we guided to.

好吧，你看，我得看看，艾倫，因為我們有一點不同的數字，而且我必須看看你的模型，但坦白說，我們談論的是相對平坦的。我們討論了 8% 的社區數量成長。因此，當你觀察逐年變化的速度時，我認為這意味著我們相當樂意達到的速度。順序上來說會好一點。這絕對是事實，但隨著我們進入年底，我們的季度——對不起，是月份——確實會變得更好一些。所以我們感覺很舒服，艾倫談到了稅收方面的一些改進以及我們正在做的事情。我們對於所引導的步伐感到非常滿意。

Look, I think the big thing is, and I don't have the community count chart, but there were a lot of years in the last, however many you've looked at or the community count goes down. So it's kind of working against the headwind of the declining community count between Q4 and Q3. We have the benefit of the tailwind of the bigger community count leaning into the fourth quarter. So that's part of it. and we're simply not going to have a 1.3 in Texas again.

聽著，我認為最重要的是，我沒有社群計數圖表，但在過去的許多年裡，無論你看過多少年，社群數量都會下降。因此，這在某種程度上是在對抗第四季和第三季之間社區數量下降的不利因素。進入第四季度，我們將受益於社區數量增加帶來的順風。這就是其中的一部分。我們不會再在德州出現 1.3 的降幅。

So I guess on that point, Alan, you're not going to have 1.3%, what specifically is changing to improve that because your margin is flat. So if you -- I would imagine if you're getting more aggressive on pricing there, it is 40% of your business, I would think that would have a negative impact on your margins. So I'm just trying to -- I'm struggling to square the two pieces there.

所以我想在這一點上，艾倫，你不會有 1.3%，具體需要做什麼改變來改善這一點，因為你的利潤率是持平的。因此，如果你——我可以想像，如果你在定價方面採取更激進的策略，這佔你業務的 40%，我認為這會對你的利潤產生負面影響。所以我只是在嘗試——我正在努力將這兩部分協調起來。

I think the (inaudible) is that these newer homes have higher margins. And so even though we are going to be working hard in Texas and that may increase incentives, we've contemplated that as a part of the guide.

我認為（聽不清楚）這些新房的利潤率更高。因此，儘管我們將在德克薩斯州努力工作，這可能會增加激勵措施，但我們已將其作為指南的一部分進行考慮。

I think we had talked all year about a pretty good lift in the fourth quarter from margins because we kind of were building a to-be-built backlog on the Zero Energy Ready homes that was pretty exciting. That's still there. That's still in backlog. It's been weighed down by a higher share of specs. So I wish that the guide was to a higher margin level in the fourth quarter. But what's really going on is we are contemplating some, particularly in Texas, some improvement in our performance, some increase in incentive weighing against that built-in margin that we've got in the backlog on our to-be-built homes.

我認為我們全年都在談論第四季度利潤率的大幅提升，因為我們正在為零能耗住宅建立待建訂單，這非常令人興奮。它仍然在那裡。這仍處於積壓狀態。它因更高的規格份額而受到拖累。因此我希望第四季的利潤率水準能夠更高。但實際情況是，我們正在考慮一些措施，特別是在德州，來改善我們的業績，增加一些激勵措施，以抵消我們在待建房屋積壓訂單中所獲得的內在利潤。

Got it. Okay. I appreciate that. On the community count growth, obviously, impressive growth numbers there. And I know it's generally consistent with the plan and the expectations. If you think about the markets where absorptions have really fallen off a bit, I'm sure maybe communities are closing out at a slightly slower rate than maybe you would have thought a few quarters ago. Are there any markets where as you open up new communities, there's any potential cannibalization of existing communities, meaning like these new projects are located pretty close to existing ones and the fact that they haven't closed out is making it more difficult to sell through them?

知道了。好的。我很感激。就社區數量的成長而言，顯然成長數字令人印象深刻。我知道這總體上與計劃和預期一致。如果你考慮一下那些吸收量確實有所下降的市場，我敢肯定，社區關閉的速度可能比你幾個季度前想像的要慢一些。是否存在這樣的市場：隨著新社區的開放，現有社區可能會受到蠶食，這意味著這些新項目與現有項目非常接近，而且由於它們尚未關閉，通過它們進行銷售變得更加困難？

I'd be making it up if I said, I know for sure, that doesn't resonate as an issue that we've really dealt with. There might be an exception to that. But I don't think cannibalization has really been an issue because a lot of the new communities, I mean, there -- they were intentionally in submarkets that we knew and that we desired and we contemplated somebody who was going to be on that site, whether it was us or somebody else. So I don't think we put ourselves in a position where one community is robbing Peter to pay Paul, so to speak. There's probably an example to the contrary, though, Alan, I'll be honest. I can't think of one.

如果我說“我確信這不是我們真正處理過的問題”，那我就是在編造。可能存在例外。但我並不認為蠶食是一個真正的問題，因為很多新社區，我的意思是，它們有意位於我們了解和渴望的子市場中，並且我們考慮過讓某個人進入該網站，無論是我們還是其他人。因此，我認為我們不應該讓自己陷入一個社區拆東牆補西牆的境地。不過，艾倫，說實話，可能有一個相反的例子。我想不出一個。

I appreciate that. Just trying to square the absorption declines year-on-year relative to your expectations coming into the quarter.

我很感激。只是想將吸收量年減與本季的預期進行平衡。

Yes. No, it's definitely -- and Dave said it. I own it. For the full year, absorption rates have been lower. It's a little gratuitous, but your cost and conservatism six and nine months ago has proven closer to what's played out than what the fall and the early spring look like.

是的。不，絕對是──戴夫也這麼說。我擁有它。全年來看，吸收率一直較低。這有點多餘，但事實證明，六個月和九個月前的成本和保守主義更接近實際情況，而不是秋季和早春的情況。

I mean, February and March were awfully good. And obviously, April and then May into June didn't sustain that. But look, we're in a very good spot. We've got a growing community count. We've got a differentiated product, and we're not in the same rate that everybody else is in. That's actually a pretty good spot to be.

我的意思是，二月和三月非常好。顯然，四月、五月和六月都沒有維持這種狀態。但你看，我們處在一個非常好的位置。我們的社區數量正在不斷增長。我們擁有差異化的產品，我們的價格與其他所有人的價格不同。這確實是一個非常好的地方。

Yeah. Absolutely. All right, thanks a lot appreciate it.

是的。絕對地。好的，非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions) Alex Rygiel, Texas Capital Securities.

（操作員指示）德州資本證券公司的 Alex Rygiel。

Thank you very much. Dave, could you talk a little bit about your cancellation rate in how we should think about it in light of maybe some of your peers and how they disclosed it or calculated and whether or not there's something to do there from a bigger company standpoint to capture more retention that could drive greater closings?

非常感謝。戴夫，您能否談談您的取消率，以及我們應該如何根據您的一些同行來考慮這個問題，他們是如何披露或計算的，以及從更大的公司角度來看，是否可以採取一些措施來獲得更多的保留率，從而推動更大的成交量？

Alex, I would be a little bit careful in talking about other people's cancellation rates and how other builders can calculate them. I would tell you in our business, cancellation rates as a percent of gross sales typically are between 15% and 20%. They're on the high end of that, but really nothing to see there. It's pretty normal in our business especially given some of the issues we've talked about around consumer confidence. It's not surprising that we're a little bit on the higher end of that. But honestly, really nothing unusual.

亞歷克斯，在談論其他人的取消率以及其他建築商如何計算這些取消率時，我會更加謹慎。我想告訴你，在我們的業務中，取消率佔總銷售額的百分比通常在 15% 到 20% 之間。他們處於高端，但實際上沒有什麼可看的。這在我們的業務中很正常，特別是考慮到我們討論過的一些有關消費者信心的問題。我們處於這個數字的較高端，這並不奇怪。但說實話，真的沒什麼不尋常的。

And then as it relates to your closings ASP guidance for the fourth quarter, is that a good baseline to consider for 2026?

那麼，就您對第四季度的收盤 ASP 指導而言，這是否是 2026 年值得考慮的一個良好基準？

I want to be real careful on giving any kind of 2026 guidance. We'll be talking about it as we kind of move into next quarter. Obviously, there's a bunch of new communities coming online where the ASP will be a little bit different. So I prefer to not get into '26 guidance right now.

我希望在給予任何 2026 年指導時都非常謹慎。我們將在進入下個季度時討論這個問題。顯然，有大量新社群上線，其 ASP 會略有不同。所以我現在不想進入 26 年指導。

Fair enough. Thank you.

很公平。謝謝。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊麥坎利斯，韋德布希。

Hey. Great. Thanks for taking my questions. I know this has been asked, so I'm going to ask it again. If we look at the gross margin, the adjusted gross margin decline sequentially from 3Q to 4Q, I guess, what is in that sales mix? Is there a lot of discounted homes that you talked about the two impaired properties? Is it clearing out some specs? I guess just kind of give us a sense of what you think is going to close in the quarter.

嘿。偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。我知道這個問題已經有人問過了，所以我要再問一次。如果我們看一下毛利率，調整後的毛利率從第三季到第四季連續下降，我想，銷售組合是什麼樣的？您說的那兩處受損房產是不是有很多打折的房子？它正在清除一些規格嗎？我想請您讓我們大致了解一下您認為本季將會完成什麼。

We've got a pretty good backlog at June 30 that includes a bunch of the to-be-bulits that I talked about just a minute ago. There will be a higher share of specs in the fourth quarter, not a lot higher. We've been in the high-60s. I think it may be a little bit higher than that. And we've contemplated that, which is why I don't think we're going to get the lift in gross margin that we otherwise would have gotten.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們已經有相當多的積壓工作，其中包括我剛才談到的一大堆待建項目。第四季的規格佔比會更高，但不會高很多。我們已經達到 60 多歲了。我認為可能比這還要高一點。我們已經考慮過這一點，這就是為什麼我認為我們不會獲得原本可以獲得的毛利率提升。

Okay. And then was glad to see you guys call out the new home inventory that some other builders have tried to shy away from. But I guess what are you hearing from the field? Have we seen the worst of it from a competitive new home inventory perspective, or do you guys expect it's going to get worse for at least the next three months while one of your larger competitors tried to clear out ahead of their year-end?

好的。然後很高興看到你們公佈了其他一些建築商試圖迴避的新房屋庫存。但我想你從現場聽到了什麼？從競爭激烈的新房庫存角度來看，我們是否已經看到了最糟糕的情況？或者你們是否預計至少在接下來的三個月裡情況會變得更糟，而你們的一個較大的競爭對手正試圖在年底前清倉？

Well, I know that start activity in the markets that we're paying really close attention to is almost in every instance down year over year. So I do think that there was some we were not alone in being somewhat optimistic last fall, thinking about starts for the spring, for the spring selling season.

嗯，我知道，我們密切關注的市場啟動活動幾乎在每次都比去年同期下降。所以我確實認為，去年秋天，我們並不是唯一一個對春季開工、春季銷售旺季感到樂觀的人。

The spring selling season was a little bit of a dead. And I think that led to higher levels of inventory and the industry has reacted to that by slowing start activity and frankly, going back to trades, looking for different pricing. So I see both of those things happening in nearly every market.

春季銷售季有點冷清。我認為這導致庫存水平上升，而行業對此的反應是放慢開工活動，坦率地說，回到交易中，尋求不同的定價。我發現這兩種情況幾乎在每個市場都會發生。

We'll have seasonality start to play with the starts numbers here as we get towards the end of the summer and into the fall. And the next real tail will be in at October/November time period, where we see the animal spirits back and are people excited about the spring selling season or is there a little bit more caution. But I think over the next few months, we're going to see the new home inventories compress a little bit. We will and others will work through what we build up, and we're starting fewer.

隨著夏季結束和秋季的臨近，我們將開始考慮季節性因素，並開始計算開工數量。下一個真正的尾聲將出現在十月/十一月期間，屆時我們將看到動物精神的回歸，人們是否對春季銷售季節感到興奮，還是會更加謹慎。但我認為在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將看到新房庫存略有壓縮。我們和其他人都會利用我們所累積的經驗來開展工作，但我們開始的工作越來越少。

And then the last one for me. We've heard from some of the government officials, trade department, et cetera, that the inbound import lumber duty rates for Canadian imports have already gone up and potentially we're going to see a further increase of that on August 8. I guess, what are you hearing from your lumber suppliers? Are they talking about passing through a price increase as a result of these higher Canadian softwood lumber -- this Canadian softwood lumber agreement?

對我來說這是最後一個。我們從一些政府官員、貿易部門等獲悉，加拿大進口木材的進口關稅稅率已經上調，並且有可能在 8 月 8 日進一步上調。我猜，您從木材供應商那裡聽到了什麼消息？他們是否談論的是，由於加拿大軟木材價格上漲——這項加拿大軟木材協議——而導致價格上漲？

I have not heard that, Jay. I think there's a lot of fear on the lumber side about the starts number coming down. And I think holding price is what they're focused on, whether they're going to be able to do that or not.

我沒有聽說過，傑伊。我認為木材行業對於開工數量下降感到非常擔憂。我認為他們關注的是保持價格，不管他們是否能夠做到這一點。

Okay. That's great. Thanks, guys.

好的。那太棒了。謝謝大家。

Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫。

Yeah. Hi, guys. I was just wondering what is your current average build time? And was there any improvement versus last quarter and a year ago? And are there any initiatives that you think could bring it down further?

是的。嗨，大家好。我只是想知道您目前的平均建置時間是多少？與上一季和去年同期相比，有什麼改善嗎？您認為有什麼措施可以進一步降低這個數字嗎？

Yeah. I would say that we have certainly in the last couple of years, picked up some cycle time, especially off the peak that we saw in COVID. And the gains, I would say that we're getting days and maybe a week back here, but it slowed down a little bit.

是的。我想說的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們確實加快了一些週期時間，特別是在 COVID 高峰期之後。至於收益，我想說我們在這裡恢復了幾天甚至一周的時間，但速度稍微慢了一點。

I would tell you, as we look to 2026, and Allan mentioned some slowness and the impact on the lumber side, I would tell you broadly for our labor, I think there's some time -- some opportunity to pick up some more cycle time and frankly drive it back towards pre-COVID levels. I think that's certainly what we're targeting. We think there's a good opportunity to drive some cycle line improvements.

我想告訴你，當我們展望 2026 年時，艾倫提到了一些緩慢的跡像以及對木材方面的影響，我想大致告訴你，對於我們的勞動力而言，我認為還有一些時間 — — 一些機會來縮短一些週期時間，坦率地說，將其推回到 COVID 之前的水平。我認為這肯定是我們的目標。我們認為這是一個推動循環線路改進的好機會。

And roughly what -- how many days is that right now?

大概是──現在是多少天了？

So I'm going to be careful. We don't give out the numbers, Alex. We don't report the numbers, so I'll be kind of careful on that. But like I said, we're about two or three months lighter than we were at the peak, and we're getting back towards pre-COVID level. We're a couple of weeks away back away from being back to where we were in 2019. And I appreciate Dave trying to be careful here about the exact day count. But I think there's still an opportunity set of about two weeks.

所以我會小心的。我們不會透露數字，亞歷克斯。我們不報告這些數字，所以我會對此保持謹慎。但就像我說的，我們的病例比高峰期減少了大約兩三個月，我們正在恢復到疫情前的水平。再過幾週我們就能回到 2019 年的狀態了。我很感謝戴夫在這裡謹慎地計算確切的天數。但我認為仍然有大約兩週的機會。

And I would say a part of that is going to be related to the fact that our trades have learned how to build these homes which are different and they have some different products in them and a little more availability of labor. I think a combination of those. I don't think we'll get all two weeks back, and we may. But I think as Dave said, as we get into '26, I think they're another three to five days for sure, that we can get back and maybe a couple more.

我想說，部分原因在於我們的行業已經學會瞭如何建造這些不同的房屋，並且它們包含一些不同的產品，並且擁有更多的勞動力。我認為是這些的結合。我認為我們不可能把兩週的時間全部拿回來，但也許可以。但我認為，正如戴夫所說，當我們進入 26 歲時，我認為我們肯定還有三到五天的時間可以回來，甚至更多。

Got it. What about the spec to build-to-order mix? Like what percentage of each are you guys doing right now?

知道了。依訂單生產的組合規格怎麼樣？例如你們現在分別完成了多少比例？

We talked about before, Alex, the number is kind of in the high-60s. We are typically -- that specs to to-be-built 65 -- between 65% and 70% specs. Our business, as you know, is typically the opposite. We tend to be kind of a 50/50, even more oriented to to-be-builts. But the market is clearly preferring specs, and we're a little bit higher than we have been historically. And frankly, we expect that to continue into the fourth quarter.

我們之前討論過，亞歷克斯，這個數字大概在 60 多歲。我們通常將規格與待建 65 進行比較，介於 65% 到 70% 之間。如您所知，我們的業務通常恰恰相反。我們傾向於採取 50/50 的比例，甚至更重視待建工程。但市場顯然更傾向於規格，而且我們的水平比歷史上高一點。坦白說，我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季度。

Okay, best of luck, guys. Thank you.

好的，祝大家好運。謝謝。

At this time, we have no further questions.

目前我們沒有其他問題。

I want to thank everybody for joining our third-quarter call, and we look forward to speaking to you on our fourth-quarter call. This concludes today's call.

我要感謝大家參加我們的第三季電話會議，我們期待在第四季電話會議上與您交談。今天的電話會議到此結束。

Again, thank you, all, for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect at this time. Thank you, and have a good day.

再次感謝大家參加今天的會議。您現在可以斷開連線。謝謝，祝您有美好的一天。