Beazer Homes USA Inc (BZH) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2024. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website later today. In addition, PowerPoint slides intended to accompany this call are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.beazer.com.

下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的第四季和財年財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音，今天晚些時候將在公司網站上提供重播。此外，本次電話會議隨附的 PowerPoint 投影片可在本公司網站 www.beazer.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

At this point, I will turn the call over to David Goldberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在，我將把電話轉給資深副總裁兼財務長大衛‧戈德伯格。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes conference call discussing our results for the fourth-quarter and full-year of fiscal 2024.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 電話會議，討論我們 2024 財年第四季和全年的表現。

Before we begin, you should be aware that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors described in our SEC filings, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections.

在我們開始之前，您應該知道，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。此類聲明涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性以及我們向 SEC 文件中描述的其他因素，這可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異。

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date the statement is made. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is simply not possible to predict all such factors.

任何前瞻性聲明僅代表聲明發布之日的情況。我們不承擔任何更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。新的因素不斷出現，而且根本不可能預測所有這些因素。

Joining me today is Allan Merrill, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. On our call today, Allan will discuss highlights from our fiscal 2024 results, the recent environment for new home sales, our preliminary outlook for fiscal 2025, and the significant progress we are making towards our multi-year goals.

今天與我一起出席的是我們的董事長兼執行長艾倫·梅里爾 (Allan Merrill)。在今天的電話會議上，艾倫將討論我們 2024 財年業績的要點、近期新屋銷售環境、我們對 2025 財年的初步展望，以及我們在實現多年目標方面取得的重大進展。

I'll then provide detailed guidance for our first-quarter results, additional color on our outlook for the full fiscal year, and end with a discussion of both our balance sheet and our land spend expectations. Allan will conclude with a wrap-up, after which we will take any questions in the remaining time.

然後，我將為我們第一季的業績提供詳細的指導，對整個財年的前景進行補充說明，最後討論我們的資產負債表和土地支出預期。艾倫將進行總結，之後我們將在剩餘時間內回答任何問題。

I will now turn the call over to Allan.

我現在將把電話轉給艾倫。

Thank you, Dave, and thank you for joining us on our call this afternoon. We had a very productive fiscal '24, during which we invested for the future, generated double-digit returns for shareholders and accelerated our adoption of Zero Energy Ready building practices. Each of these results contributed to our progress toward our multiyear goals.

謝謝戴夫，也謝謝您今天下午參加我們的電話會議。我們的 24 財年非常富有成效，在此期間我們為未來進行了投資，為股東創造了兩位數的回報，並加速了我們對零能耗就緒建築實踐的採用。這些成果中的每一項都有助於我們實現多年目標。

I'm particularly encouraged that we were able to achieve these outcomes in a new home sales environment characterized by stretched affordability and stubbornly high mortgage rates. Here are several highlights from the year.

我特別感到鼓舞的是，我們能夠在負擔能力緊張和抵押貸款利率居高不下的新房銷售環境中取得這些成果。以下是今年的幾個亮點。

We invested more than $750 million in land and land development, up nearly 36% from the prior year. This allowed us to end the year with 162 active communities, up about 20% year over year. And we're poised for further community count growth, both this year and next.

我們在土地和土地開發方面的投資超過7.5億美元，比上年增長近36%。這使得我們在年底擁有 162 個活躍社區，較去年同期成長約 20%。我們準備在今年和明年實現社區數量的進一步增長。

We generated $243 million in adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share of $4.53, representing double-digit returns on both capital employed and equity. We dramatically accelerated our adoption of Zero Energy Ready, becoming the single year and all-time leader in delivering homes under the DOE's national single-family program.

我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.43 億美元，每股收益為 4.53 美元，所用資本和股本回報率均達到兩位數。我們大大加速了「零能耗就緒」的採用，成為美國能源部國家單戶計劃下交付房屋的單年和歷史領先者。

And it wasn't just our homes that stood out. During 2024, we reached the top spot for customer experience among homebuilders according to the only verified owner rating site, TrustBuilder. And finally, we maintained our position as an employer of choice in the industry with recognition for culture and employee engagement from multiple third-party organizations.

脫穎而出的不僅僅是我們的家。根據唯一經過驗證的業主評級網站 TrustBuilder，2024 年我們在住宅建築商中的客戶體驗方面名列前茅。最後，我們憑藉多個第三方組織對文化和員工敬業度的認可，維持了業界首選雇主的地位。

In summary, while the macro environment for new home sales was challenging, we stayed on course and made meaningful progress on many fronts. Both the intermediate and longer-term outlook for new home sales remains very positive, characterized by a structural deficit in the housing supply and favorable demand demographics, particularly among the customer segments we target.

總而言之，儘管新房銷售的宏觀環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍堅持前進，並在許多方面取得了有意義的進展。新房銷售的中期和長期前景仍然非常樂觀，其特點是住房供應結構性赤字和有利的需求人口結構，特別是在我們的目標客戶群中。

But the realization of this opportunity was quite uneven in fiscal '24 as our entire industry grappled with strained affordability, declining consumer sentiment and later in the year, anxiety about the election.

但在 24 財年，這一機會的實現情況相當參差不齊，因為我們整個行業都面臨著承受能力緊張、消費者信心下降以及今年晚些時候對選舉的焦慮等問題。

In fact, the sales environment had been quite challenging when we last addressed investors. At that time, it seemed like buyers were anticipating rate cuts at the Fed, bigger year-end discounts from builders or simply more clarity on the direction of the economy.

事實上，當我們上次向投資人發表演說時，銷售環境相當具有挑戰性。當時，買家似乎期待聯準會降息、建商提供更大的年終折扣，或者只是對經濟方向更加明確。

We also noted that we were considering how to modify our sales approach in a handful of markets to improve their sales pace. Ultimately, we did lower prices and lean into incentives in our pace-challenged markets, focused on our specs and closeout communities.

我們也注意到，我們正在考慮如何修改我們在少數市場的銷售方式，以提高他們的銷售速度。最終，我們降低了價格，並在節奏挑戰的市場中採取激勵措施，重點關注我們的規格和清倉社區。

By September, these efforts, together with a modest improvement in consumer sentiment, led to substantially better sales. In October, we saw continued strength in sales momentum across both our spec and higher-margin to-be-built homes even as we began to withdraw the higher incentives. October orders were up over 30% on a community count that was up almost 20% as our sales pace returned to more normal levels.

到 9 月份，這些努力加上消費者信心的小幅改善，導致銷售大幅改善。十月份，即使我們開始撤回更高的激勵措施，我們也看到我們的規格住宅和高利潤待建住宅的銷售勢頭持續強勁。隨著我們的銷售速度恢復到更正常的水平，社群數量增加了近 20%，10 月的訂單數量增加了 30% 以上。

At this early stage in our fiscal year with sales patterns as fluid as they have been, it seems both difficult and unwise to try and provide granular, full year guidance. Having said that, we will share an outlook for the year, informed by our visibility into community count growth and an assessment of how the macro environment is likely to influence our sales mix and pace.

在我們財年的早期階段，銷售模式一直不穩定，嘗試提供細緻的全年指導似乎既困難又不明智。話雖如此，我們將根據我們對社區數量增長的了解以及對宏觀環境可能如何影響我們的銷售組合和節奏的評估，分享對今年的展望。

Our average community count in fiscal '24 was 144. We expect our full year average community count will be up between 18 and 22 communities, which should lead to more than 10% top line growth.

2024 財年我們的平均社區數為 144 個。我們預計全年平均社區數量將增加 18 至 22 個社區，這將帶來超過 10% 的收入成長。

At a macro level, we do not expect significant reductions in mortgage rates over the balance of the fiscal year. This is less optimistic than our view several months ago. But we're taking the movement in the bond market since September as a sign that mortgage rates may remain elevated.

從宏觀層面來看，我們預期本財年剩餘時間抵押貸款利率不會大幅下降。這比我們幾個月前的看法不太樂觀。但我們將 9 月以來債券市場的走勢視為抵押貸款利率可能保持高位的跡象。

Higher rates have typically led to a larger share of spec sales. As such, our outlook contemplates the specs, which carry somewhat lower margins will represent more than 60% of our closings, the highest level in a decade.

較高的利率通常會帶來更大的規格銷售份額。因此，我們的前景考慮了這些規格，其利潤率略低，將占我們成交量的 60% 以上，這是十年來的最高水平。

Despite elevated rates, we remain optimistic about both job and wage growth. The so-called soft landing may have been achieved. And it seems likely that regulatory and tax policies will encourage more growth. Having addressed our most price-sensitive markets, we expect to improve sales paces to something closer to historical levels in a range between 2.5 and 3 sales per community per month.

儘管利率上升，我們仍然對就業和薪資成長持樂觀態度。所謂的軟著陸或許已經實現了。監管和稅收政策似乎可能鼓勵更多成長。在解決了對價格最敏感的市場後，我們預計將銷售速度提高到更接近歷史水平，即每個社區每月 2.5 至 3 筆銷售。

Taken together, our full year outlook contemplates significant revenue growth, leading to a level of profitability that generates a double-digit return on our capital employed. For a company in the midst of a meaningful growth phase, we think that's pretty compelling. Beyond our expectations for revenue and profitability in fiscal '25, we also expect to make further progress on our multiyear goals.

總而言之，我們的全年展望預計收入將大幅增長，從而實現盈利水平，為我們所使用的資本帶來兩位數的回報。對於一家正處於有意義的成長階段的公司來說，我們認為這是相當引人注目的。除了我們對 25 財年收入和獲利能力的預期之外，我們還希望在實現多年目標方面取得進一步進展。

We have a clear path to ending fiscal '26 with more than 200 communities. We're on track to end this fiscal year with a community count around 180 and we have a land pipeline sufficient to ensure double-digit growth next year.

我們有一條明確的道路可以在 26 財年結束時與 200 多個社區合作。我們預計在本財年結束時擁有約 180 個社區，並且我們擁有足夠的土地儲備來確保明年實現兩位數的成長。

We also remain on track to have a net debt to net capitalization ratio below 30% by the end of fiscal '26. We allowed this ratio to increase a little bit in fiscal '24 as we remain committed to our growth trajectory even in the face of lower closing volumes.

我們也預計在 2026 財年末將淨債務與淨資本比率控制在 30% 以下。我們允許這一比率在 24 財年略有增加，因為即使面對成交量下降，我們仍然致力於我們的成長軌跡。

The cumulative profitability and cash flow we anticipate over the next two years will allow us to reach this target even as we sustain higher land spending. Lastly, we continue to make significant progress toward our goal to have 100% of our homes Zero Energy ready.

我們預計未來兩年的累積獲利能力和現金流將使我們能夠在維持更高的土地支出的情況下實現這一目標。最後，我們將繼續朝著讓 100% 的家庭實現零能耗的目標取得重大進展。

In the second half of FY24, 92% of our starts meant the DOE standard. While we'll still have a few starts from prior series in our closeout communities, by this time next year, we will be 100% Zero Energy Ready.

2024 財年下半年，我們 92% 的開工都符合 DOE 標準。雖然我們的清倉社區中仍將有一些先前系列的開始，但到明年這個時候，我們將實現 100% 零能耗就緒。

Before I turn the call over to Dave, I want to spend a couple of minutes explaining why our commitment to Zero Energy Ready homes is so important for shareholders. In fact, there are many benefits to having a demonstrably better product for customers. including having access to new land opportunities in some of the country's preeminent master planned communities and attracting high-end talent to our company.

在將電話轉給戴夫之前，我想花幾分鐘解釋為什麼我們對零能耗住宅的承諾對股東如此重要。事實上，為客戶提供明顯更好的產品有許多好處。包括獲得該國一些傑出總體規劃社區的新土地機會以及吸引高端人才加入我們公司。

But for today, we can focus on the economics because they are very attractive. When we look at our backlog, the margins on Zero Energy Ready homes are already more than 1 point higher than our prior series homes, whether they're specs or to-be-builts.

但今天，我們可以關注經濟學，因為它們非常有吸引力。當我們查看積壓訂單時，零能耗住宅的利潤率已經比我們之前系列住宅高出 1 個百分點以上，無論是規格還是待建住宅。

And this is before recognizing the $5,000 federal tax benefit for Zero Energy Ready Homes buried in our effective tax rate. That's almost a point of margin versus other builders homes. And we're still in the very early innings.

這是在認識到我們的有效稅率中隱藏的零能耗住宅 5,000 美元聯邦稅收優惠之前的情況。與其他建築商的房屋相比，這幾乎是一個利潤點。我們仍處於早期階段。

We believe our sales pace, our build costs and our realized pricing will all benefit as we refine and improve our production and sales efforts. That's why Zero Energy Ready is important for shareholders. These homes position us for even better profitability moving forward.

我們相信，隨著我們完善和改進我們的生產和銷售工作，我們的銷售速度、我們的建造成本和我們實現的定價都將受益。這就是為什麼零能源就緒對股東來說很重要。這些房屋使我們能夠在未來獲得更好的獲利能力。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Allan. This afternoon, I will concentrate on providing some more specifics on our first quarter guidance and our outlook for the fiscal year. I will conclude my comments with a discussion of our balance sheet and our land position. We have detailed our fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2024 results in our presentation, our press release, and our 10-K. And of course, we're happy to discuss them during the Q&A portion of our call.

謝謝，艾倫。今天下午，我將集中提供有關我們第一季指導和本財年展望的更多細節。我將透過討論我們的資產負債表和土地狀況來結束我的評論。我們在簡報、新聞稿和 10-K 中詳細介紹了第四季度和 2024 年整個財年的業績。當然，我們很樂意在電話問答部分討論這些問題。

Let's start with our expectations for the first quarter of fiscal 2025.

讓我們從我們對 2025 財年第一季的預期開始。

Period-end community count should be up about 20% versus the same period last year as we benefit from our increased land spending over the past few years. Our sales pace should accelerate versus the prior year by about 10%. More communities and higher pace should generate year-over-year sales growth of around 30%. We anticipate closing more than 925 homes with an average ASP of around $515,000.

期末社區數量應比去年同期增加約 20%，因為我們受益於過去幾年土地支出的增加。我們的銷售速度應比前一年加快 10% 左右。更多的社區和更快的步伐應該會帶來 30% 左右的同比銷售成長。我們預計將成交超過 925 間房屋，平均售價約為 51.5 萬美元。

Adjusted gross margin should be around 19%. The sequential reduction in gross margin from the fourth quarter is a function of two related factors. First, specs increase as a percentage of our total sales in the back half of 2024 and have typically carried margins 2 to 3 points below to-be-builts.

調整後的毛利率應該在19%左右。第四季毛利率的連續下降是兩個相關因素的作用。首先，2024 年下半年，規格占我們總銷售額的百分比會增加，利潤率通常比待建產品低 2 到 3 個百分點。

Second, we lean pretty heavily into incentives in a handful of markets in the fourth quarter, particularly on our spec homes to stimulate sales pace. Even though we've since reduced these incentives or in some cases, sold out of the communities, margins will be impacted in the first quarter. The first quarter should represent a trough for our gross margin for the fiscal year.

其次，我們在第四季非常依賴少數市場的激勵措施，特別是我們的規格住宅，以刺激銷售速度。儘管我們後來減少了這些激勵措施，或者在某些情況下，將社區售空，但第一季的利潤率仍將受到影響。第一季應該是我們本財年毛利率的低谷。

SG&A as a percentage of revenue should be around 13%, about 1 point lower than the same time last year, helping to support our operating margin. We expect to generate about $30 million in adjusted EBITDA. Interest amortized as a percent of homebuilding revenue should be just over 3%, and our effective tax rate to be approximately 15%.

SG&A 佔營收的百分比應在 13% 左右，比去年同期低約 1 個百分點，有助於支撐我們的營業利潤率。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 約為 3000 萬美元。利息攤銷佔住宅建築收入的百分比應略高於 3%，而我們的有效稅率約為 15%。

The higher tax rate versus 2024 is in line with our expectations as we won't have the benefit of harvesting tax credits generated in prior years in 2025. This should lead to diluted earnings per share of about $0.30. I want to pick up where Allan left off on our full year outlook and give you a perspective on how we're thinking about the range of potential outcomes on community count, sales pace, and gross margin.

與 2024 年相比較高的稅率符合我們的預期，因為我們將無法在 2025 年獲得前幾年產生的稅收抵免的好處。這將導致每股攤薄收益約為 0.30 美元。我想繼續艾倫對我們全年展望的看法，並讓您了解我們如何考慮社區數量、銷售速度和毛利率方面的潛在結果範圍。

Predicting community count with precision is pretty challenging, given variability in land development timing, weather and closeouts. With this caution, we expect to add 18 to 22 communities to our average community count reflecting 12.5% to 15% growth.

考慮到土地開發時間、天氣和收尾的變化，精確預測社區數量相當具有挑戰性。出於這種謹慎的考慮，我們預計平均社區數量將增加 18 至 22 個，成長率為 12.5% 至 15%。

We note our activations are weighted more to the back half of the year and our community count could be flat or down sequentially in the second quarter depending on the timing of closeouts. We are committed to achieving a sales pace between 2.5 and 3 sales per community per month for the full year, more in line with our historical norms and an improvement of fiscal 2024.

我們注意到，我們的激活活動更集中在下半年，我們的社區數量可能會在第二季度持平或連續下降，具體取決於關閉的時間。我們致力於全年實現每個社區每月 2.5 至 3 筆銷售額的銷售速度，更符合我們的歷史標準並在 2024 財年有所改善。

The margin in our backlog at 9/30 is about 20.5%, including most of the lower-margin homes will close in the first quarter. This implies the balance of the backlog has much higher margins. Nonetheless, for the full year, we anticipate gross margin will be between 19.5% and 20.5% because we expect spec sales and closings to remain elevated through the year. The high end of the range is attainable if we're able to sell a greater share of to-be-builts in the spring or we can drive further reductions in incentives.

截至 9/30，我們的積壓訂單利潤率約為 20.5%，其中大多數利潤率較低的房屋將在第一季關閉。這意味著積壓的餘額具有更高的利潤。儘管如此，我們預計全年毛利率將在 19.5% 至 20.5% 之間，因為我們預計全年規格銷量和成交量將保持在較高水平。如果我們能夠在春季銷售更多的待建項目，或者我們可以推動進一步減少激勵措施，那麼該範圍的高端是可以實現的。

ASP and SG&A are less subject to market fluctuation, and as such, we have better visibility into our expectations for the year. Given our ASP and backlog near $540,000 and the mix of community openings and closings, we believe our ASP should be over $530,000.

ASP 和 SG&A 受市場波動的影響較小，因此，我們可以更了解今年的預期。考慮到我們的平均售價和積壓訂單接近 54 萬美元，以及社區開幕和關閉的情況，我們相信我們的平均售價應該超過 53 萬美元。

Further, while we're still investing heavily for growth, our higher community count should lead to revenue growing faster than our overheads in fiscal year 2025, driving our SG&A percentage to be about 11%. Here's the key point. Even at the low end of each of the ranges, we expect to generate EBITDA that would represent another year of double-digit return on capital employed.

此外，雖然我們仍在大力投資以促進成長，但我們的社區數量增加應該會導致 2025 財年的營收成長快於我們的管理費用，從而推動我們的 SG&A 百分比達到約 11%。這是關鍵點。即使在每個範圍的低端，我們預計產生的 EBITDA 也將代表另一年的所用資本回報率達到兩位數。

Any improvement in our metrics above the low end of our ranges will drive EBITDA growth and even better returns. Our balance sheet remains healthy with total liquidity exceeding $500 million at the end of the fiscal year, no maturities until October 2027 and more than enough liquidity to fuel our growth aspirations.

我們的指標高於範圍低端的任何改善都將推動 EBITDA 成長，甚至更好的回報。我們的資產負債表保持健康，本財年末的流動性總額超過 5 億美元，直到 2027 年 10 月才到期，流動性足以滿足我們的成長願望。

We expect to end fiscal 2025 with a net debt to net cap in the low to mid-30s, and we're on a path to get our net debt to net cap below 30% by the end of fiscal 2026 as our improving profitability and cash generation will delever the balance sheet.

我們預計到2025 財年結束時，淨債務與淨上限將在30 多歲左右，並且隨著我們的盈利能力和盈利能力的提高，到2026 財年末，我們的淨債務與淨上限將達到30%以下。

Over the last five years, we've been able to sustain a double-digit return on capital and have grown our book value at a 19% compounded annual growth rate even as we've increased our land investment. Our capital allocation and execution has increased the quality of our book value and positions us for another year of growth in fiscal 2025.

在過去的五年裡，即使我們增加了土地投資，我們仍然能夠維持兩位數的資本回報率，並且帳面價值以 19% 的複合年增長率增長。我們的資本配置和執行提高了我們的帳面價值質量，並為我們在 2025 財年實現另一個成長做好了準備。

Since fiscal 2020, we've run our total owned and option land position from fewer than 17,000 lots to nearly 28,000 lots. And we've done that primarily through increase in our option lots, which have gone from 35% of our total to nearly 60%. In 2025, we expect land spend to grow to around $850 million, and our owned and option lot position to exceed 30,000.

自 2020 財年以來，我們的自有土地和選擇權土地部位已從不到 17,000 塊增加到近 28,000 塊。我們主要透過增加選擇權手數來做到這一點，選擇權手數已從佔總數的 35% 增加到近 60%。到 2025 年，我們預計土地支出將成長至 8.5 億美元左右，我們的自有地塊和選擇權地塊將超過 30,000 個。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Allan.

這樣，我現在將把電話轉回給艾倫。

Thank you, Dave. In summary, 2024 was a successful year for the company as we executed our growth strategy and generated double-digit returns. We're entering 2025 with a growing community count, a differentiated product strategy and a healthy balance sheet, positioning us to make real progress on our multiyear goals. Finally, I remain convinced we have the team and the strategy to create growing and durable value our stakeholders in the years ahead.

謝謝你，戴夫。總之，2024 年對公司來說是成功的一年，我們執行了成長策略並創造了兩位數的回報。進入 2025 年，我們的社區數量不斷增長，差異化的產品策略和健康的資產負債表使我們能夠在多年目標上取得真正的進展。最後，我仍然堅信，我們擁有團隊和策略，可以在未來幾年為我們的利害關係人創造不斷增長和持久的價值。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to take us into Q&A.

這樣，我會將電話轉給接線員，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Julio Romero, Sidoti & Company.

（操作員說明）Julio Romero，Sidoti & Company。

Hello. This is Alex Hantman on for Julio. Thanks for taking questions.

你好。我是亞歷克斯漢特曼 (Alex Hantman) 替胡里奧 (Julio) 發言。感謝您提出問題。

Alex. How you doing?

亞歷克斯.你好嗎？

Good. How are you?

好的。你好嗎？

Good.

好的。

Great. Well, thank you very much for sharing the guide. And maybe we could talk a little bit about the community count ramp. I would love to hear how you're thinking about your confidence in the ramp you've outlined in that path for growth?

偉大的。嗯，非常感謝您分享該指南。也許我們可以談談社區數量的成長。我很想聽聽您對您在這條增長道路上概述的斜坡的信心如何？

Well, look, I would tell you, Alex, we feel pretty confident about the ramp. Obviously, with the growth in the land position that we've had and the visibility that we have on communities coming online, we feel real good about the growth that we talked about the 18 to 22 net new communities and ending the year around 180.

好吧，聽著，我告訴你，亞歷克斯，我們對坡道非常有信心。顯然，隨著我們所擁有的土地地位的增長以及我們對上線社區的知名度，我們對我們談到的 18 至 22 個淨新社區以及年底約 180 個社區的增長感到非常滿意。

Thank you. And maybe just touching on sales pacing. Could you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in October, maybe some improvement relative to September?

謝謝。也許只是觸及銷售節奏。您能否談談您在 10 月看到的情況，也許相對於 9 月有所改善？

Yeah, Alex, it's Allan. Things got better in September. And as rates started to back up a little bit, I was concerned that we might see that slowdown. But frankly, October looked a lot like September. And I was encouraged because we peeled away some of the heavier incentives that we had offered to clear out some older inventory, and we saw a nice pickup in to-be-built sales. So it wasn't just around more heavily discounted specs.

是的，亞歷克斯，是艾倫。九月情況有所好轉。隨著利率開始略有回升，我擔心我們可能會看到經濟放緩。但坦白說，十月看起來很像九月。我很受鼓舞，因為我們取消了為清理一些舊庫存而提供的一些較重的激勵措施，並且我們看到待建銷售的良好回升。因此，這不僅僅是圍繞更大幅度折扣的規格。

Great. Thank you for the context. Will hop back in queue.

偉大的。謝謝你的背景。將跳回到佇列中。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Hey guys, good afternoon. Thanks as always for all the helpful details so far. So I know it's tough to give any full year guidance at this point. It's a pretty rapidly changing environment. But one of the data points I wanted to just drill in a little bit more on is your outlook for absorptions for the year, given the range of 2.5, I guess, at the low end to 3 at the high end. Your absorption pace this year was just under 2.5 per month. And obviously, the year ended challengingly, but it was generally a pretty solid year, especially in the spring.

嘿夥計們，下午好。一如既往地感謝迄今為止所有有用的細節。所以我知道目前很難給出任何全年指導。這是一個快速變化的環境。但我想稍微深入研究的一個數據點是您對今年吸收量的展望，我猜，考慮到範圍從低端 2.5 到高端 3。今年您的吸收速度每月略低於 2.5。顯然，這一年結束時充滿挑戰，但總體來說是相當充實的一年，尤其是在春季。

So I'm curious if you could just talk through a little bit more of your expectations there because it doesn't seem like you're anticipating any meaningful improvement in the macro as far as mortgage rates or the economy.

所以我很好奇你是否可以多談談你的預期，因為就抵押貸款利率或經濟而言，你似乎並不預期宏觀經濟會出現任何有意義的改善。

It seems like you've pulled back a little bit on those incentives that drove some of the momentum in October. What gives you the confidence that even at the low end of your guidance range that they'll come in with a better absorption rate in '25 versus '24.

看來你已經稍微取消了那些推動 10 月發展動能的誘因。是什麼讓您有信心，即使在指導範圍的低端，他們在 25 年的吸收率也會比 24 年的吸收率更好。

It's a great question, Alan. Look, 2.4 was lowest absorption rate we've had in a long time, and it was disappointing. -- it was characterized by an 8% mortgage rate in the first quarter last year that made the October and November months really challenging. And as I told you and others on the call in August, I feel like we got punched in the mouth by our competitors in May, June, and it took us a minute to find our footing.

這是一個很好的問題，艾倫。看，2.4 是我們很長一段時間以來的最低吸收率，這令人失望。 ——去年第一季抵押貸款利率為 8%，這使得 10 月和 11 月變得非常具有挑戰性。正如我在 8 月的電話會議上告訴你們和其他人的那樣，我覺得我們在 5 月、6 月被競爭對手打了一拳，我們花了一分鐘才找到立足點。

I think we had over specked or overspecified the spec homes that we had started, and we were a little bit out of position. And we addressed that. And I think the combination of getting better dialed in and accepting a somewhat larger share of specs as a part of our sales mix and not being in an 8% mortgage rate environment, which is obviously how we started last year, I think those two things together give us confidence we will be back in the range that we've historically been in.

我認為我們已經過度指定或過度指定了我們已經開始的規格房屋，而且我們有點不合適。我們解決了這個問題。我認為，更好地撥入並接受更大份額的規格作為我們銷售組合的一部分，而不是處於 8% 抵押貸款利率環境中，這顯然是我們去年開始的方式，我認為這兩件事共同給我們信心，我們將回到我們歷史上所處的範圍。

Now exactly where in that range, I obviously don't know at this point, but we are going to be up in sales pace next year this year. Sorry I do that, too. I get confused between September and December. When I said next year, I meant 2025 our fiscal year.

現在我顯然不知道這個範圍的確切位置，但今年我們明年的銷售速度將會加快。抱歉我也這麼做。我對九月和十二月感到困惑。當我說明年時，我指的是 2025 年我們的財政年度。

No, understood. I appreciate that, Allan. Second question, if I look at your 1Q margin guide 19% adjusted, that would be -- I think if our model is right, the lowest margin you've generated in over a decade. And I know you're expecting that to ramp through the year, and I think your explanation makes sense to me.

不，明白了。我很感激，艾倫。第二個問題，如果我看看你們的第一季利潤率指南調整後的 19%，我認為如果我們的模型正確的話，這將是你們十多年來產生的最低利潤率。我知道您預計這種情況將在這一年中持續增長，並且我認為您的解釋對我來說是有道理的。

But we're starting to hear a little bit of chatter from some land sellers and developers that not necessarily Beazer specific, but some builders are attempting to maybe renegotiate some option terms and take down prices just given the fact that rates have clearly stayed higher than many had expected.

但我們開始聽到一些土地賣家和開發商的一些討論，這些討論不一定是 Beazer 特有的，但考慮到利率明顯高於許多人都預料到了。

Incentives have remained more elevated. So as you look at where your margin is today and a relatively thinner margin than perhaps some of your peers and maybe where you had expected, are you in the process of maybe trying to take some of your more recent land buys and renegotiate them given the changing macro environment? Or do you feel like as those deals come to market, even with the choppier environment that you'll still generate margins better than you're generating today?

激勵措施仍然較高。因此，當您查看您今天的利潤率，以及比您的一些同行相對薄弱的利潤率以及您的預期時，您是否正在嘗試購買一些最近購買的土地並重新談判它們，因為宏觀環境變化？或者，您是否認為，當這些交易進入市場時，即使環境更加動盪，您仍然會產生比今天更好的利潤？

I mean, because they're, I mean, literally nearly 100 transactions in flight between LOIs and under contract or just closed. Obviously, answering that is a little tricky because I could cherry pick and answer it one way or I could cherry pick and answer it a different way.

我的意思是，因為我的意思是，LOI 之間有近 100 筆交易正在按合約進行或剛剛結束。顯然，回答這個問題有點棘手，因為我可以選擇一種方式來回答它，也可以選擇不同的方式來回答它。

I think we did re-underwrite a bunch of deals through the summer as we were struggling in the sales pace. We walked away from one that I can think of right off the top of my head, and I think we had in the third quarter, $1 million write-off associated with it.

我認為我們整個夏天確實重新承銷了很多交易，因為我們在銷售速度上舉步維艱。我們放棄了我能立即想到的一個，我認為我們在第三季度沖銷了 100 萬美元。

We have renegotiated pricing on a handful of deals. We've gotten tougher on our underwriting for new deals. But our '25 and frankly, our '26 is largely in place at this point. So I wouldn't say that there is some wholesale reset that's available. I think one of the ways to think about it, and I think a little bit about this, what is our finished lot cost as a percentage of our ASP. And I think it's back to a level where it was in 2000.

我們已經重新協商了一些交易的定價。我們對新交易的承保變得更加嚴格。但我們的 25 號，坦白說，我們的 26 號現在基本上已經到位。所以我不會說有一些可用的批量重置。我認為思考這個問題的方法之一是，我們的成品批量成本占我們的平均售價的百分比是多少。我認為它又回到了 2000 年的水平。

We had the benefit '21, '22, '23. And I mean, frankly, everybody did. There was more HPA on top of a historical cost base and that inflated margins. I think land prices are a little bit elevated relative to ASPs. But as I look back to that pre-COVID period, they're not substantially different than they were then.

我們在「21」、「22」、「23」獲得了福利。坦白說，我的意思是，每個人都這麼做了。在歷史成本基礎之上還有更多的 HPA，導致利潤率上漲。我認為土地價格相對於平均售價略高一些。但當我回顧新冠疫情之前的時期時，我發現它們與當時並沒有太大不同。

Great. I appreciate the thoughts. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。我很欣賞這些想法。多謝。

Tyler Batory, Oppenheimer.

泰勒·巴托里，奧本海默。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple for me. And I want to start, Allan, in your prepared comments, you talked about the Zero Energy Ready homes in the benefits that you're seeing. You alluded to a point of margin higher than the prior series.

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。給我一對。我想首先，艾倫，在您準備好的評論中，您談到了零能耗住宅的好處，您所看到的好處。您提到了比之前系列更高的利潤點。

Can you just unpack that a little bit more, explain what drives that higher margin. And then when you look at the sales process when you look at construction as well, how much low-hanging fruit is there to improve those and to drive the margin even higher?

您能否稍微解釋一下，解釋一下是什麼推動了更高的利潤率。然後，當你審視銷售流程和建築流程時，有多少容易實現的目標可以改善這些流程並進一步提高利潤率？

Well, let me take the second part first because I can't give you basis points and answers. But directionally, you've touched on something that's hugely important to us. I am incredibly confident we can reduce the cost of delivering Zero Energy Ready.

好吧，讓我先看第二部分，因為我無法給你基點和答案。但從方向上來說，你觸及了對我們來說非常重要的事。我非常有信心我們能夠降低實現零能耗就緒的成本。

I mean we are literally the first builder at scale in multiple markets and multiple climate zones to be committed to it. And it has been an enormous effort to retrain trades to set up and strengthen supply chains for the products that are necessary to build these homes.

我的意思是，我們確實是第一個在多個市場和多個氣候區大規模致力於此的建築商。為了建立和加強建造這些房屋所需產品的供應鏈，我們付出了巨大的努力來重新培訓產業。

We have internally some pretty ambitious goals about continuing to improve the quality of our homes, but I think we can deliver a lower cost to get to Zero Energy Ready. The second part of that is on the sales side. And I think we have a tremendous professional sales force.

我們內部有一些相當雄心勃勃的目標，即繼續提高我們的房屋質量，但我認為我們可以提供更低的成本來實現零能源就緒。第二部分是銷售方面。我認為我們擁有一支強大的專業銷售團隊。

But they are selling something that hasn't been available before and figuring out the science of what it is that we've done in the home, is terrific. But I got to be honest, most of our buyers don't care about ACHs and HERS scores.

但他們正在銷售一些以前從未有過的東西，並且弄清楚我們在家裡所做的事情的科學性，真是太棒了。但說實話，我們的大多數買家並不關心 ACH 和 HERS 分數。

So we've really -- we've trained the sales team. I think by and large, they know the science. They know the statistics, they know the materials, they know the philosophy that goes into building these homes. The trick is, how do I relate that to each individual that I have a chance to talk to? Is this someone for whom air quality or comfort or really monthly savings is going to resonate better.

所以我們確實對銷售團隊進行了訓練。我認為總的來說，他們了解科學。他們了解統計數據，了解材料，並了解建造這些房屋的概念。關鍵是，我如何將其與我有機會交談的每個人聯繫起來？對於這個人來說，空氣品質、舒適度或每月節省的錢會更好地引起共鳴。

And honestly, it's a little bit like batting practice. I think we just need practice.

老實說，這有點像是擊球練習。我認為我們只需要練習。

I spent a lot of time in the field, and I talked to our new home counselors a lot about this. So I am very confident we can do both of those things that we can establish the value in a way that is very resonant with different buyers and we can reduce the cost. I don't know how high high it is, but it is certainly a better margin profile than we have right now.

我在現場花了很多時間，並與我們的新家庭輔導員談論了很多關於這個問題。因此，我非常有信心我們可以做這兩件事，我們可以以一種與不同買家非常共鳴的方式建立價值，並且可以降低成本。我不知道它有多高，但它的利潤率肯定比我們現在的好。

The first part of your question, I think, was about unpacking what the real value of Zero Energy Ready is. And I would refer you to one of the slides in our deck that talks about the indoor air quality and the quality and the comfort.

我認為，你問題的第一部分是關於了解零能耗就緒的真正價值是什麼。我會向您推薦我們甲板上的一張幻燈片，其中討論了室內空氣品質以及品質和舒適度。

But let me do a little math with you. I was up in Maryland last I don't know, two weeks ago at one of our communities. We were hosting an event with a bunch of regulators and others because it's a big deal. We are now the all-time leader in the clubhouse for having delivered Zero Energy Ready homes. And the annual leader, like we're the expert in this now, and people are paying attention.

但讓我和你一起做一些數學題。我不知道最後一次我是在馬裡蘭州，那是兩週前在我們的一個社區。我們與一群監管者和其他人一起舉辦了一次活動，因為這是一件大事。我們現在是俱樂部會所中交付零能耗住宅的歷史領導者。年度領導者，就像我們現在是這方面的專家一樣，人們正在關注。

And so I was standing in front of the home, I was making the point that the energy cost on the home in our model is nearly $500 a month lower than a similarly sized home that was for sale across the street, a 20-year-old home. Think about $500 a month in savings. I mean we're talking $6,000 or $5,500, I think it was $470. So I think it was $5,500 of annual savings.

所以我站在房子前面，我想說的是，我們模型中的房子每月的能源成本比街對面出售的類似大小的房子低近 500 美元，這是一個 20 年-老家。想想每月可以省 500 美元。我的意思是我們談論的是 6,000 美元或 5,500 美元，我認為是 470 美元。所以我認為每年可以省下 5,500 美元。

So I asked my sales team, I said, okay, so $5,000 a month or a year is a lot of money. How much would the mortgage rate have to drop on this home to create a $5,000 savings? And they weren't all supercomputers. They had to go crunch a few numbers to come back with the answer.

所以我問我的銷售團隊，我說，好吧，所以每月或每年 5,000 美元是很多錢。這套房子的抵押貸款利率需要下降多少才能節省 5,000 美元？而且它們並不都是超級電腦。他們必須處理一些數字才能得出答案。

And the answer was mortgage rate would have to drop by more than 1 point on that home in order to realize a similar savings. And it was -- I mean, in that moment, it was a little bit of a light bulb boom. And I think for the sales team as we were talking they realize, gosh, this home is effectively equivalent to having a whole point less in your mortgage rate forever because of how energy efficient it is.

答案是該房屋的抵押貸款利率必須下降 1 個百分點以上才能實現類似的節省。我的意思是，在那一刻，有點像燈泡繁榮。我認為對於銷售團隊來說，正如我們所說的，他們意識到，天哪，這套房子實際上相當於你的抵押貸款利率永遠降低了一個百分點，因為它的能源效率很高。

So when we talk about what's really important to a customer for a lot of our customers, that makes a big difference.

因此，當我們談論什麼對客戶真正重要時，對於我們的許多客戶來說，這會產生很大的不同。

Okay. Excellent detail. A follow-up question on the incentives. You sound like you ramped up incentives and you pulled back. I guess, which markets did you lean in a little bit more?

好的。優秀的細節。關於激勵措施的後續問題。聽起來你加大了激勵措施，然後又撤回了。我想，您更傾向哪些市場？

Are those the same markets where you've been able to pull back? And then when you look ahead to fiscal '25 it sounds like lower incentives are part of that gross margin improvement. Just talk a little bit more about your confidence in that, your expectations for incentives next year? And maybe just for the industry overall.

這些市場是您能夠撤回的市場嗎？然後，當您展望 25 財年時，聽起來激勵措施的降低是毛利率改善的一部分。請多談談您對此的信心，以及您對明年激勵措施的期望嗎？也許只是針對整個產業。

I mean it does appear like the competitive environment is pretty robust. There are lots of builders out there that are getting pretty aggressive in terms of what they're offering. I mean what needs to happen for that to change? I mean, do you think these incentive levels are just here to stay? Is it in a mortgage rate scenario. I'd just be curious your thoughts on all those topics.

我的意思是，競爭環境確實看起來相當強勁。有很多建築商在他們提供的產品方面變得非常激進。我的意思是需要做什麼才能改變這種情況？我的意思是，您認為這些激勵水平會持續下去嗎？是在抵押貸款利率場景下嗎？我只是好奇你對所有這些主題的想法。

All right. Well, gosh, there's a lot there. How about I'll take a piece of it, I'm going to hand the baton to Dave and let him take a piece of it. But let me talk for just a second about the incentives in the markets. I'm not trying to be a smart aleck, but last quarter, I singled out a couple of markets and said, hey, our sales pace is just not good here, and we've got to fix it.

好的。好吧，天哪，那裡有很多東西。我拿一塊怎麼樣，我要把接力棒交給戴夫，要他拿一塊。但讓我談談市場的誘因。我並不是想自作聰明，但上個季度，我挑出了幾個市場並說，嘿，我們的銷售速度在這裡不好，我們必須解決這個問題。

And when I did that, I did it intentionally. It was accurate. But I got to tell you, I made my team in those markets, and I feel very good.

當我這樣做時，我是故意的。這是準確的。但我必須告訴你，我在這些市場組建了自己的團隊，我感覺非常好。

They know who they are. I am happy to say that those are exactly the places we did the things that we said we were going to do. We fixed our spec strategy in terms of what's the level of specification. But we also reallocated closing costs, price reductions and we lowered prices to be more competitive. So we did all of these things and it led directly in those markets to a dramatic improvement in sales pace.

他們知道自己是誰。我很高興地說，這些正是我們做我們說過要做的事情的地方。我們根據規格等級確定了規格策略。但我們也重新分配了結帳成本，降低了價格，並降低了價格以更具競爭力。因此，我們做了所有這些事情，並直接導致這些市場的銷售速度顯著提高。

In fact, I will give a little shout out to Houston because I called on them last quarter. I think between August and September, and I -- this number is approximately right.

事實上，我會​​向休士頓大聲喊叫，因為我上個季度拜訪了他們。我認為在八月到九月之間，這個數字大致上是正確的。

I know we more than doubled our monthly sales. I know that, that sales pace in October stayed quite elevated even as they were withdrawing the sales incentive. So I feel pretty good about we diagnosed the problem, and I think we applied an appropriate and short-term solution. The good news is it allowed us to sell out of some communities and submarkets and at price points that's really not our wheelhouse.

我知道我們的月銷售額增加了一倍以上。我知道，即使他們取消了銷售激勵措施，十月的銷售速度仍然相當高。因此，我對我們診斷出問題感到非常滿意，我認為我們採用了適當的短期解決方案。好消息是，它允許我們出售一些社區和子市場，而且價格點確實不是我們的駕駛室。

And so I don't think that, that has a long-term lingering effect. And that is certainly part of our margin guide that Q1 has got some stuff in it that's not in Q2, Q3, or Q4. Now for the full year, I think we said something really important. We expect specs to be 60% of our closings. In my tenure, we've never had a year where closings were 60% specs.

所以我認為這不會產生長期的揮之不去的影響。這當然是我們利潤指南的一部分，第一季有一些第二季、第三季或第四季沒有的東西。現在，對於全年來說，我認為我們說了一些非常重要的事情。我們預計規格將占我們成交量的 60%。在我的任期內，我們從來沒有遇到過成交率達到 60% 的年份。

And definitely, they have consistently had well for two years in the middle of COVID, they've consistently had margins at 2 to 3 points lower than our to-be builts. So that's predicated or our guide or our outlook is predicated on that. We are accepting that we are in a higher rate environment that's going to carry a larger spec percentage, and we have reflected in what we've shared today, that outcome in our margins.

當然，在新冠疫情期間的兩年裡，他們一直表現得很好，他們的利潤率一直比我們未來的產品低 2 到 3 個百分點。所以這是有前提的，或者我們的指南或我們的前景是以此為前提的。我們承認我們正處於一個更高的利率環境中，該環境將帶來更大的規格百分比，並且我們已經在我們今天分享的內容中反映了這一結果在我們的利潤中。

Now if we get a robust spring selling season where we're able to, between now really and April, sell a bunch of to-be-builts, our full year margins are going to be better than the low end of that range for sure because that's really the biggest driver. And then secondarily, if we see any rate relief, there will be some reduction in incentives, and that would flow through as well, but we are not betting on any of that.

現在，如果我們有一個強勁的春季銷售季節，從現在到四月份，我們能夠銷售大量待建房屋，那麼我們的全年利潤率肯定會好於該範圍的低端因為這確實是最大的驅動力。其次，如果我們看到任何利率下調，激勵措施也會有所減少，這也會隨之減少，但我們不會押注其中任何一項。

Yeah. Look, the only thing I would tell you, Tyler, is Allan talked about some costs on Zero Energy Ready. I think that's another opportunity to drive some margin that frankly is not in that low end of our range that we've given. But look, I would tell you the 19.5% low end assumes that, that spec margin goes back down to that 2%, 3% differential that we've talked about, but not dramatically better than that.

是的。聽著，泰勒，我唯一要告訴你的是艾倫談到了零能源就緒的一些成本。我認為這是另一個提高利潤率的機會，坦白說，這個利潤率並不在我們給出的範圍的低端。但看，我會告訴你 19.5% 的低端假設，規格利潤率會回落到我們討論過的 2%、3% 的差異，但不會比這好得多。

Okay. Great. So last question for me, and I don't want to put you too much on the spot here. I appreciate all the detail for 2025, sometimes updating a model real time can be a little bit treacherous. But just based on the -- if I used the low end of your guide, I mean, it sounds like EBITDA should be growing next year.

好的。偉大的。這是我的最後一個問題，我不想讓你太難受。我很欣賞 2025 年的所有細節，有時即時更新模型可能有點危險。但僅僅基於——如果我使用你的指南的低端，我的意思是，聽起來 EBITDA 明年應該會增長。

Do you think you can see EPS growth next year? Or perhaps there's a tax rate issue that's impacting the just the different growth rates there on a year-over-year basis.

您認為明年每股收益能成長嗎？或者也許存在稅率問題，僅影響了同比增長率的不同。

Yeah. So let's start, Tyler, with the tax situation. So in 2024, we were still benefiting from harvesting energy efficiency credits from previous years. So the tax rate is going to be a little bit higher than what we saw as we looked at -- as we look forward into 2021, and we gave Q1 guidance on being around 15% that will affect the comparability.

是的。泰勒，讓我們從稅收情況開始。因此，到 2024 年，我們仍然受益於前幾年所獲得的能源效率積分。因此，當我們展望 2021 年時，稅率將比我們看到的要高一些，我們給出的第一季指引為 15% 左右，這將影響可比性。

What I would tell you from a return on capital, and we made it pretty clear in our comments, we're expecting to generate a double-digit return on capital employed. Now this year, we were in 11s, we'd be pretty disappointed if our ROCE was lower than it was this year. But again, we've expressed that we expect it to be 10 or better, right?

我想從資本回報率告訴您，我們在評論中已經明確表示，我們預計所用資本回報率將達到兩位數。今年，我們的 ROCE 為 11，如果我們的 ROCE 低於今年，我們會非常失望。但我們再次表示，我們希望它達到 10 或更好，對嗎？

Okay. Alright, I'll leave it there. I appreciate all the detail. Thank you.

好的。好吧，我就把它留在那裡。我很欣賞所有的細節。謝謝。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊·麥卡利斯，韋德布希。

Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. I just wanted to clarify on the fiscal '25 guidance, that is adjusted gross margin you're forecasting to, correct?

嘿。大家下午好。我只是想澄清一下 25 財年的指導，即您預測的調整後毛利率，對嗎？

That is adjusted gross margin, Jay.

這是調整後的毛利率，傑伊。

Okay. And then I guess the next question I have, I guess, could you guys reconcile -- and I know you said the community count is going to grow, but there may be some pickups along the way. I guess why try to push on absorptions and get back to a more normal level in the guidance when it doesn't -- it sounds like you've got confidence that the count is going to grow, but you're not sure exactly how quickly it's going to grow. So I guess, why go aggressive on the guidance given maybe some pitfalls along the way with community count?

好的。然後我想我的下一個問題是，你們能調和嗎？我想為什麼要在指南中嘗試推動吸收並恢復到更正常的水平，而事實並非如此——聽起來你有信心計數會增加，但你不確定具體如何增長很快它就會增長。所以我想，鑑於社區數數過程中可能存在一些陷阱，為什麼要積極推行指導呢？

Well, there are two different things, right, Jay? I mean, community count and pace left-hand right hand. So on the pace side, simply we've done better in October. I expect that we're going to do better than November than a pretty easy comp. And I want us and we expect to sustain better paces.

嗯，有兩件事不同，對吧，傑伊？我的意思是，社區計數和步調左手右手。因此，在速度方面，我們十月做得更好。我預計我們會比 11 月做得更好，而不是一個相當簡單的比賽。我希望我們並且我們期望保持更好的步伐。

I don't think we'll have the problem next summer that we had this summer. So I think on balance, we ought to be up year over year on pace, and that's what we've guided to.

我認為明年夏天我們不會再遇到今年夏天遇到的問題。因此，我認為總的來說，我們的步伐應該逐年加快，這就是我們的指導方針。

Separate and apart from that, I mean it's related clearly, but a different point is we're entering the year with a bunch more communities. We're up 20%, so it's more than 20%. The timing of the new communities coming on and the timing of closeouts, boy, you can miss by a month and slip from one quarter into the other quarter, either because you sold a little faster in that community or a little slower or you had a two-week delay before you were able to grand open because the DOT didn't get the turn lane put in, those kinds of things can happen.

除此之外，我的意思是它是明確相關的，但不同的一點是我們將進入更多社區的一年。我們上漲了 20%，所以已經超過 20%。新社區出現的時間和清倉的時間，孩子，你可能會錯過一個月，從一個季度滑到另一個季度，要么是因為你在那個社區的銷售速度快了一點，要么慢了一點，或者你有一個因為交通部沒有設置轉彎車道，所以要延遲兩週才能開業，這樣的事情可能會發生。

So what we've said is we're going to be up in average community count between 18 and 22 communities. -- get to about 180 at the end of the year. That math all fits. What Dave said, though, is that between the first and the second quarter, I don't know, we don't know for sure whether we will be sequentially up from Q1 to Q2.

所以我們說過，我們的平均社區數量將增加到 18 到 22 個社區。 ——年底達到180左右。這個數學完全符合。不過，戴夫說的是，在第一季和第二季之間，我不知道，我們不確定我們是否會從第一季連續上升到第二季。

But Q2 will be up double digits over Q2 a year ago, and Q3 will be up double digits over Q3 a year ago and Q4 will be up double digits over Q4 a year ago. So I think we were just trying to provide some clarity that the sequential move may be a little uneven, but the year-over-year growth is locked in for '25.

但第二季將比一年前第二季成長兩位數，第三季將比一年前第三季成長兩位數，第四季將比一年前第四季成長兩位數。因此，我認為我們只是試圖澄清這一點：連續走勢可能有點不平衡，但同比增長已鎖定在 25 年。

Yeah, Jay, the only thing I would tell you is -- and I understand the question, I would tell you that 1 of the reasons we gave ranges and really focused on words like outlook. There's a lot of them certainly now. And I don't think we're being aggressive. I think we're trying to give you a low end of what we think could happen.

是的，傑伊，我唯一要告訴你的是——我理解這個問題，我會告訴你，我們給出範圍並真正關注像前景這樣的詞的原因之一。現在肯定有很多。我不認為我們有侵略性。我認為我們正在努力向您提供我們認為可能發生的情況的低端資訊。

And if things get better, as Alan said mentioned in a number of scenarios where things could get better, then yes, we'd expect to be toward the high end of the range.

如果情況變得更好，正如艾倫在許多情況可能會變得更好的情況下提到的那樣，那麼是的，我們預計會達到該範圍的高端。

Okay. And then just the last question I had, with what you guys are going to open on community count and given what seems to be better demand across the industry for move-up, whether it's first or second move-up homes, do you have any flexibility to change some of this product up to go from -- to bring that 60% spec down, which I'm assuming most of that's going to be entry level, bringing some of that down and put it out there as to-be-built? Or is your mix that's 60% pretty locked in with what you're opening on the community front this year?

好的。然後是我的最後一個問題，你們打算在社區數量上開放什麼，考慮到整個行業對搬遷的需求似乎更好，無論是第一套還是第二套搬遷房屋，你們有什麼靈活地更改該產品的某些部分，以降低60% 的規格，我假設其中大部分將是入門級，降低其中一些並將其作為未來的產品-建造？還是你的組合 60% 與你今年在社群方面開放的內容相當一致？

So Jay, I really appreciate this question. But respectfully, I want to disconnect something for you. When we say specs and you left to that's entry level. I wouldn't think about it that way in the case of Beazer. I mean in any given community, if we're going to sell, let's say, 50 homes in a year, maybe 30 of them are specs in that community, 20 of them are to to-be-builts or some other ratio, but it's not like the specs or other communities.

傑伊，我真的很感激這個問題。但恕我直言，我想為你斷開一些連結。當我們說到規格時，您只停留在入門級。對於 Beazer 來說，我不會這麼想。我的意思是，在任何給定的社區中，如果我們要一年出售 50 套房屋，也許其中 30 套是該社區的規格，其中 20 套是待建房屋或其他比例，但是它與規範或其他社區不同。

You follow me. So we don't have to position different communities. It's just the mix within the communities that we have. And clearly, we are not the price leader in the market.

你跟著我。所以我們不必定位不同的社區。這只是我們社區內的混合。顯然，我們不是市場上的價格領導者。

So I don't know that I call us a move-up builder, but there are -- in every market we're in, there is a builder with a home with a lower price. Absolutely, when you're building Zero Energy Ready, that is not the least expensive home. It's a better home. Now it may be 2,000 square feet, it may be 3,000 square feet. It may cost $400,000, it may cost $1 million in a given market.

所以我不知道我稱我們為升級建築商，但在我們所處的每個市場中，都有一家建築商的房屋價格較低。當然，當您建造零能耗住宅時，這並不是最便宜的房屋。這是一個更好的家。現在可能是2000平方英尺，也可能是3000平方英尺。它可能花費 40 萬美元，在特定市場可能花費 100 萬美元。

And for us, the average as David said, is going to be about 530. But it's not -- our specs are not entry-level product. We really don't do that.

對我們來說，正如 David 所說，平均值約為 530。但事實並非如此——我們的規格不是入門級產品。我們真的不這樣做。

Look, I would tell you, Jay, the commitment to get to 100% Zero Energy Ready is exactly the monster of it, right? All the homes we build specs are to-be-builts are very, very high quality.

聽著，我想告訴你，Jay，實現 100% 零能耗就緒的承諾正是它的怪物，對吧？我們建造的所有待建房屋的規格都非常非常高。

Okay. Got it. Great. Thanks.

好的。知道了。偉大的。謝謝。

You got it, buddy.

你明白了，夥計。

(Operator Instructions) Alex Rygiel, B. Riley.

（操作說明）Alex Rygiel、B. Riley。

Thank you. Nice quarter, gentlemen. Are -- any chance you could go around the country and talk to us a little bit about some of the strengths and weaknesses across the different geographies?

謝謝。先生們，美好的季度。您是否有機會走遍全國並與我們談談不同地區的一些優勢和劣勢？

Yeah, I'd be happy to tell you that. I have to offer you, though, my traditional surgeon general health warning, which is when we see a market perform really well, maybe it's because we're awesome. We did great. And maybe it's because the market did great. And I'll try and differentiate that.

是的，我很樂意告訴你這一點。不過，我必須向您提供我傳統的外科醫生一般健康警告，即當我們看到市場表現非常好的時候，也許是因為我們很棒。我們做得很好。也許是因為市場表現出色。我會嘗試區分這一點。

We had an interesting mix of -- in the fourth quarter, in particular. We had an interesting mix of markets in very disparate locations and price points that did pretty well. I mean I would highlight our Virginia team did a nice job, our Myrtle Beach team. That's a very different buyer that we see in Myrtle Beach than what we see in the closer in suburbs of D.C. and Virginia, Atlanta was pretty good.

我們有一個有趣的組合——特別是在第四季度。我們在不同的地點和價位上有一個有趣的市場組合，表現都很好。我的意思是我要強調我們的維吉尼亞團隊做得很好，我們的默特爾比奇團隊。我們在默特爾比奇看到的買家與我們在華盛頓特區和維吉尼亞州近郊看到的買家非常不同，亞特蘭大的買家相當不錯。

And then out West for us, Las Vegas and Northern California really showed up. And I think in those markets, they were generally healthy conditions. So part of it's got to be us, but I think part of it was probably the market. where we struggled in the third quarter was in Texas. And I think a lot of it was us, candidly, and I think we've addressed that, and I feel pretty good about where we are in Texas.

然後在我們的西部，拉斯維加斯和北加州真的出現了。我認為在這些市場中，它們的狀況總體上是健康的。所以部分原因是我們，但我認為部分原因可能是市場。我們第三季陷入困境的地方是德州。坦白說，我認為很大程度上是我們造成的，我認為我們已經解決了這個問題，我對我們在德克薩斯州的處境感到非常滿意。

We're just not very big in some of the other major markets. And so I just feel like our experience good or bad is a little bit more idiosyncratic. And I'd be reluctant to comment on them because I don't want to make a comment. For example, about a Phoenix, level because, Gosh, there are seven or eight builders there that are doing 5 times to 10 times the volume we are, they can probably give you a better read on the market. And I can only tell you how our handful of communities there did.

我們只是在其他一些主要市場上規模不是很大。所以我只是覺得我們的經驗無論好壞都有點特別。我不願意對他們發表評論，因為我不想發表評論。例如，關於鳳凰城，水平，因為，天哪，那裡有七八個建築商，他們的產量是我們的 5 倍到 10 倍，他們可能可以讓你更好地了解市場。我只能告訴你我們那裡的少數社區是如何做到的。

Very helpful. And then it sounded like in September and October, dirt builds actually picked up a little bit. But yet your messaging is for the next 12 months to expect the mix shift towards more spec builds. So if you could maybe reconcile those two.

非常有幫助。然後聽起來好像在九月和十月，泥土的堆積實際上有所增加。但您的資訊是在接下來的 12 個月內預計混合將轉向更多規格構建。所以如果你能調和這兩者的話。

Yeah. It's coming off of a crazy high number. I mean August was 70-ish percent of specs and September was a little bit lower than that and October was lower than that. So trend is definitely in the right direction in terms of a little bit more strength in the to-be-builts. But candidly, it was still a majority of specs.

是的。這是一個瘋狂的高數字。我的意思是 8 月是規格的 70% 左右，9 月略低於該規格，10 月則低於該規格。因此，就待建工程的實力稍強一點而言，趨勢絕對是正確的。但坦白說，這仍然是大部分規格。

It just wasn't as exaggerated a majority as we experienced in July and August. So the 60% reflects a higher level than normal for us, but certainly better than where we were in August and September.

只是不像我們在七月和八月所經歷的那樣誇張。因此，60% 反映了我們高於正常水平的水平，但肯定比 8 月和 9 月的水平要好。

Super helpful. Thank you.

超有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks, Al.

謝謝，艾爾。

Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

亞歷克斯·巴倫，住房研究中心。

Hey, guys. Thank you and I appreciate all the details. I was hoping you could elaborate what changed in the example you gave of Houston where the sales doubled if you could give more specifics on what's driving the confidence in the increase in sales pace you guys are expecting this year?

嘿，夥計們。謝謝你，我很欣賞所有的細節。我希望您能詳細說明您舉的休斯敦示例中發生了什麼變化，其中銷售額翻了一番，如果您能提供更多具體信息，說明是什麼推動了您對今年銷售速度增長的信心？

Well, I think in the specs in particular, in Houston, some of the things that we did, and let me be clear, we took some lower margins like that helped. But I think we had overspec'd the specs, the flooring, the cabinet, the countertops, I think we aimed a little high and we found ourselves out of the market.

嗯，我認為特別是在休士頓的規格方面，我們所做的一些事情，讓我明確一點，我們採取了一些較低的利潤，這有幫助。但我認為我們對規格、地板、櫥櫃、檯面的規格過高，我認為我們的目標有點高，結果我們發現自己被排除在市場之外。

And I think a very detailed review of that spec level proved that we were put money in the home that we weren't getting paid for. And so we had to get over ourselves, fix it, and the next spec start didn't have it.

我認為對該規格水平的非常詳細的審查證明我們在房子裡投入了錢，而我們卻沒有得到報酬。所以我們必須克服自己，修復它，而下一個規範開始時卻沒有它。

But we did other things. We took our closing costs away and moved it into a price reduction, or we substantially reallocated the incentive to price reductions. Sometimes it's a simple, honestly, is geography. If you're advertising [419] with $40,000 incentive, you might be better off advertising [379]. And I think it was some things like that, that we did.

但我們還做了其他事情。我們取消了結帳成本，並將其轉化為降價，或者我​​們大幅重新分配了降價激勵。有時這很簡單，老實說，就是地理。如果您以 40,000 美元的獎勵做廣告 [419]，那麼您最好做廣告[379]。我認為我們做了類似的事情。

Now in fact, there were some margin consequences we were very scalpel-like as it related to specs and closeout communities.

事實上，我們非常像手術刀一樣產生了一些利潤後果，因為它與規格和清倉社區有關。

And I think it was a combination of getting those communities working and then just dialing in a little bit our strategy with specs and to-be-built pricing that has helped us sustain a heavier or a healthier level of activity.

我認為這是讓這些社區發揮作用，然後稍微調整我們的策略與規格和即將建立的定價的結合，這幫助我們維持了更重或更健康的活動水平。

Got it. Yeah. No, it makes a ton of sense, I think, taking a little bit less margin if you can double your sales or 30% increase in your sales makes a ton of sense. Now that you guys are building more specs, are you by the same notion, offering either forward commitment or a share -- sorry, rate buydown or something that causes people to absorb those before they get to completion?

知道了。是的。不，我認為，如果你的銷售額能夠翻倍或銷售額增加 30%，那麼減少一點利潤就很有意義。既然你們正在製定更多的規格，你們是否也遵循同樣的理念，提供遠期承諾或份額——抱歉，利率購買或導致人們在完成之前吸收這些規格的東西？

Well, I mean we've always had a temporary and permanent buy-down set of options for our customers. I feel like our mortgage choice program gives us a great lineup. We get multiple lenders bidding effectively for that customer's business. And if a short-term buy down to conserve some cash is important, they can do that. a permanent buy-down so that they can qualify is important.

嗯，我的意思是，我們一直為客戶提供臨時和永久的購買選項。我覺得我們的抵押貸款選擇計劃為我們提供了一個很棒的陣容。我們讓多家貸方對該客戶的業務進行有效競標。如果短期買入以節省一些現金很重要，他們可以這樣做。永久買斷以使他們能夠獲得資格很重要。

We get proposals or our customers get proposals for that. So yeah, we've got the full arsenal of mortgage tools. And I would argue really more than most because literally every customer in order to get our closing cost incentive, one of our policies is you have to get more than one loan proposal. So we know our customers are getting the benefit of choice.

我們收到建議，或我們的客戶收到建議。是的，我們擁有全套抵押貸款工具。我比大多數人更願意爭論，因為實際上每個客戶為了獲得我們的結帳成本激勵，我們的政策之一是您必須獲得不止一份貸款提案。所以我們知道我們的客戶正在獲得選擇的好處。

Got it. And if I could ask one last one, any thoughts on share buybacks, given your stock is still below one-time book?

知道了。如果我可以問最後一個問題，鑑於您的股票仍低於一次性帳面價值，對股票回購有什麼想法嗎？

No, Jay, I would -- Alex, excuse me, I would tell you, we always think about this the same way. We think about excess capital and excess liquidity in the business. And we think about risk-adjusted returns. And so while we're not certainly opposed if it's the highest risk invested return with our excess capital, we certainly think about it and it's an arrow in the quiver. That said, the primary focus as it has been for a while has been land spend growth and that's not going to change.

不，傑伊，我會——亞歷克斯，對不起，我會告訴你，我們總是以同樣的方式思考這個問題。我們考慮企業中的過剩資本和過剩流動性。我們會考慮風險調整後的報酬。因此，雖然我們不一定反對，如果這是我們多餘資本的最高風險投資回報，但我們當然會考慮這一點，這是箭袋中的一支箭。也就是說，一段時間以來的主要關注點一直是土地支出成長，這一點不會改變。

Okay. Best of luck, guys. Thank you.

好的。祝你好運，夥計們。謝謝。

Thanks, sir.

謝謝，先生。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Oh, am I in trouble now, Alan?

哦，我現在遇到麻煩了嗎，艾倫？

No. Thank you for squeezing me in again. Well, I'm not sure it's a softball, but I'm curious.

不。謝謝你再次把我拉進來。嗯，我不確定這是壘球，但我很好奇。

I know you too well to expect a softball, my friend. So I'm ready.

我太了解你了，我的朋友，你不會期待壘球。所以我準備好了。

Absolutely. Well, I'm surprised it didn't come up, which is why I hop back in. So we're a week post election and obviously, still a few months away from the administration change. But just curious, as you think about all the proposals and discussions that have been thrown out there up to this point related to a whole host of issues, any thoughts about how -- what impact, if any, like the discussion about, for example, mass deportation, does that concern you at all as far as labor availability, anything about GSE reform? Just a jump ball here, but curious if you've given any thoughts to the upcoming administration change.

絕對地。好吧，我很驚訝它沒有出現，這就是我跳回來的原因。現在距離大選已經一週了，顯然距離政府更迭還有幾個月的時間。但只是好奇，當你思考迄今為止提出的與一系列問題相關的所有提案和討論時，任何關於如何影響（如果有的話）的想法，例如討論、大規模驅逐出境，就勞動力供應而言，您是否擔心這一點，或關於GSE 改革？只是在這裡跳球，但很好奇您是否對即將到來的政府變動有任何想法。

Well, I'm going to dodge GSE reform because, as you know, I'm on the board at one of the GSEs. But I would say, as we talk about other issues, I think there puts and takes so far, little cast in stone, as you point out. I would tell you it's fairly significant.

好吧，我要迴避 GSE 改革，因為如你所知，我是其中一家 GSE 的董事會成員。但我想說，當我們談論其他問題時，我認為到目前為止，正如你所指出的，投入和支出還沒有什麼是一成不變的。我會告訴你這是相當重要的。

One of the three lines in our comments this quarter is a a realization that it is more likely than not that rates stay elevated compared, frankly, to what I thought 90 days ago. I mean we were on a pretty good rate of decline in mortgage rates through July, August and the beginning part of September.

我們本季評論中的三句話之一是認識到，坦白說，與我 90 天前的想法相比，利率很可能會保持在較高水平。我的意思是，整個 7 月、8 月和 9 月初，抵押貸款利率的下降速度相當不錯。

And that's all gone away. In fact, I think rates are 50 basis points higher today than they were the last time we talked.

而這一切都消失了。事實上，我認為今天的利率比我們上次談話時高了 50 個基點。

I think we have accepted that whether it's reduction in taxes or more spending or some combination thereof, there is some realistic chance that mortgage rates, notwithstanding Fed action, could stay elevated. So that's one thing that we've internalized and we could be wrong.

我認為我們已經接受這樣的事實：無論是減稅還是增加支出，還是兩者的某種結合，儘管聯準會採取了行動，但抵押貸款利率仍有可能保持在高位。所以這是我們已經內化的一件事，我們可能是錯的。

But that's and assumption that we've made that's different. As I think about the growth side, I do feel like when you start talking about and actually doing some level of deregulation and creating clarity on tax cuts or tax levels and there's less fear of adverse changes. I think that will be pretty helpful from an enthusiasm in the economy standpoint.

但這與我們所做的假設不同。當我想到成長方面時，我確實覺得當你開始談論並實際進行一定程度的放鬆管制並明確減稅或稅收水平時，人們就不會那麼擔心不利的變化。我認為從經濟角度來看這將非常有幫助。

Now the third leg, and you mentioned it, is around immigration policy, and I'm -- it's a super tricky issue. Like the level of undocumented and other than entirely legal immigration that took place is clearly had all sorts of impacts on our society. I don't think that they are broadly employed in the housing sector.

現在，你提到的第三條腿是圍繞移民政策，這是一個非常棘手的問題。就像發生的無證移民和非完全合法移民的程度一樣，顯然對我們的社會產生了各種各樣的影響。我不認為他們在住房部門廣泛就業。

The policies that we have that we require our trades to have would suggest that they're not direct beneficiaries. But of course, if a number of people are withdrawn from the country who are doing other jobs, does that create some competition for labor that changes the dynamic, that could certainly happen.

我們要求我們的行業遵守的政策表明他們不是直接受益者。但當然，如果一些從事其他工作的人從該國撤出，這是否會產生一些勞動力競爭，從而改變動態，這種情況肯定會發生。

I think as ambitious as that mandate is. I think the details of it are far from clear. The timing of it is far from clear. So I've got my eye on it, but I can't make any an intelligent projection about what exact effect it will have. The two we felt pretty good about.

我認為這項任務同樣雄心勃勃。我認為它的細節還遠遠不清楚。其時機尚不清楚。所以我已經關注了它，但我無法對它會產生什麼確切效果做出任何明智的預測。兩個人我們都覺得都挺好的。

I do think there's going to be a little more confidence with rates and tax rates and regulations. And I think we're likely going to pay for it in the form of higher mortgage rates.

我確實認為人們對利率、稅率和法規會有更多的信心。我認為我們可能會以更高的抵押貸款利率的形式來支付它。

Very helpful. Thanks, again.

非常有幫助。再次感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Thank you. And we are showing no further questions at this time.

謝謝。目前我們沒有提出任何進一步的問題。

All right. I want to thank everyone for joining us on our fiscal fourth quarter call and we look forward to talking to everybody next quarter. Thank you so much. This ends today's call.

好的。我要感謝大家參加我們的第四財季電話會議，我們期待下個季度與大家交談。太感謝了。今天的通話到此結束。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。