Beazer Homes USA Inc (BZH) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes earnings conference call for the third quarter ended June 30, 2024 today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website later today. In addition, PowerPoint slides intended to accompany this call are available in the Investor Relations section of the Company's website at www.beazer.com.

下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的第三季財報電話會議，今天的電話會議正在錄音，今天晚些時候將在公司網站上提供重播。此外，本次電話會議隨附的 PowerPoint 投影片可在本公司網站 www.beazer.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

At this point, I will turn the call over to David Goldberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在，我將把電話轉給資深副總裁兼財務長大衛‧戈德伯格。

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to the Beazer Homes conference call discussing our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Before we begin, you should be aware that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors described in our SEC filings, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. Any forward-looking statements speaks only as of the date the statement is made.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 電話會議，討論我們 2024 財年第三季的表現。在我們開始之前，您應該知道，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述涉及我們向 SEC 文件中描述的已知和未知風險、不確定性和其他因素，這可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異。任何前瞻性陳述僅代表截至該陳述發表之日的情況。

We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is simply not possible to predict all such factors.

我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。新的因素不斷出現，根本不可能預測所有這些因素。

Joining me today is Allan Merrill, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. On our call today, Allan will discuss highlights from our third quarter, the current environment for new home sales, our longer-term outlook on the market, and conclude with an overview of our progress towards our multiyear goals.

今天與我一起出席的是我們的董事長兼執行長艾倫·梅里爾 (Allan Merrill)。在今天的電話會議上，艾倫將討論我們第三季的亮點、當前新屋銷售環境、我們對市場的長期前景，並概述我們實現多年目標的進展。

I'll then provide details on our third quarter results. Expectations for our fourth quarter and full year results, the basis for our confidence in profitability growth next year, our review of our land activity followed by a quick discussion of our balance sheet and book value growth. We will conclude with a wrap-up by Allan. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions in the time remaining.

然後我將提供有關我們第三季業績的詳細資訊。對我們第四季度和全年業績的預期，我們對明年盈利增長信心的基礎，我們對土地活動的審查，然後對我們的資產負債表和賬面價值增長進行了快速討論。我們將以艾倫的總結作為結束。在我們準備好發言後，我們將在剩餘時間內回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Allan.

我現在將把電話轉給艾倫。

Thank you, Dave, and thank you for joining us on our call this afternoon. Despite the continuing challenges presented by an affordability constrained markets. Our third quarter reflected profitability in line with our expectations and significant progress toward our multi-year goals.

謝謝戴夫，也謝謝您今天下午參加我們的電話會議。儘管承受能力有限的市場帶來了持續的挑戰。我們第三季的獲利能力符合我們的預期，並且在實現我們的多年目標方面取得了重大進展。

While our new home orders were softer than we had anticipated, reflecting both macro and market-specific factors that I'll address in a moment. Our long-term confidence in the broader new home market and Visa's positioning in particular, remains very strong. In terms of third quarter profitability, closings and revenue matched our expectations and adjusted gross margin came in slightly higher than anticipated. This led to adjusted EBITDA of $53.5 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.88. In turn, book value grew to more than $38 per share.

雖然我們的新房訂單比我們預期的要軟，但反映了我稍後將討論的宏觀和市場特定因素。我們對更廣泛的新國內市場，特別是 Visa 的定位的長期信心仍然非常強勁。就第三季獲利能力而言，成交量和收入符合我們的預期，調整後的毛利率略高於預期。這導致調整後 EBITDA 為 5,350 萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為 0.88 美元。隨後，每股帳面價值成長至 38 美元以上。

I'd also like to call out two operational highlights. First, we substantially grew our total lot pipeline. We now have more than 28,000 lots, have 25% from last year, providing excellent visibility into our growing community count and second, we reached a major energy efficiency milestone this quarter, as we have now closed more homes to the DOE's single-family zero energy ready requirements than any other homebuilder in the country.

我還想指出兩個操作亮點。首先，我們大幅增加了總批次管道。我們現在擁有超過28,000 個地塊，比去年增加了25%，這為我們不斷增長的社區數量提供了良好的可視性；其次，我們在本季度達到了一個重要的能源效率里程碑，因為我們現在已經關閉了更多住宅，使其符合美國能源部的單戶零標準能源就緒要求高於該國任何其他住宅建築商。

Although we generated strong financial results in the quarter, the sales environment proved quite challenging. Our pace of 2.4 sales per community per month was below our expectations from a macro perspective, we had many prospective buyers struggled to qualify for a mortgage and others who chose to defer their purchase based on expectations of lower mortgage rates later this year.

儘管我們在本季取得了強勁的財務業績，但銷售環境卻充滿挑戰。從宏觀角度來看，我們每個社區每月2.4 的銷售額低於我們的預期，我們有許多潛在買家難以獲得抵押貸款資格，而其他人則基於今年晚些時候抵押貸款利率下降的預期而選擇推遲購買。

And weather events in Texas were quite disruptive. These dynamics impacted all builders to some extent. But for us, there were a couple of specific markets where additional factors played an even bigger role. In particular, weak sales in Houston and San Antonio weighed on our results. Excluding these markets, which represent about a quarter of our community count, our sales pace would have been around 2.8 sales per community per month, closer to both normal seasonal patterns and our expectations.

德州的天氣事件相當具有破壞性。這些動態在一定程度上影響了所有建築商。但對我們來說，在一些特定市場中，其他因素發揮了更大的作用。特別是休士頓和聖安東尼奧的銷售疲軟影響了我們的業績。排除這些市場（約占我們社區數量的四分之一），我們的銷售速度約為每個社區每月 2.8 筆銷售，更接近正常的季節性模式和我們的預期。

Houston and San Antonio are among the most affordable housing markets. We serve, which is why we remain confident in their near and long-term prospects during the quarter. Both markets saw particularly strong demand at price points, well below our offerings. While we might have achieved higher sales with more aggressive incentives, this quarter, we chose not to chase volume in either market.

休士頓和聖安東尼奧是最實惠的房屋市場之一。我們服務，這就是為什麼我們對他們本季的近期和長期前景充滿信心。這兩個市場的價格需求都特別強勁，遠低於我們的產品。雖然我們可能透過更積極的激勵措施實現了更高的銷售額，但本季我們選擇不追逐這兩個市場的銷售量。

That's because we believe it is important to demonstrate the value of our highly differentiated and newly introduced Ready series homes. Given a short period to adapt, we believe these homes and our team can more than hold their own competitively, and we expect Houston and San Antonio to be among our most productive markets.

這是因為我們認為展示我們高度差異化的新推出的 Ready 系列住宅的價值非常重要。鑑於適應期很短，我們相信這些房屋和我們的團隊不僅可以保持自己的競爭力，而且我們預計休士頓和聖安東尼奧將成為我們最俱生產力的市場之一。

Looking out to 2025 and beyond, we continue to be quite optimistic on new home sales, a decade of underbuilding has left the country undersupplied for housing and continuing employment and wage growth should underpin demand while stretched affordability and growth in for-sale inventories likely means that sales patterns will remain volatile in individual markets, we have not seen anything that changes our longer-term bullish thesis. And eventually, we expect lower rates to improve affordability for homebuyers.

展望 2025 年及以後，我們對新屋銷售仍然相當樂觀，十年的建設不足導致該國住房供應不足，持續的就業和工資增長應會支撐需求，而負擔能力緊張和待售庫存的增長可能意味著儘管個別市場的銷售模式仍將波動，但我們沒有看到任何改變我們長期看漲觀點的事情。最終，我們預計較低的利率將提高購屋者的負擔能力。

With this positive longer-term outlook, we remain fully committed to our three multi-year goals, which include expanding our community count, deleveraging our balance sheet and delivering a demonstrably superior home. We ended the quarter with 146 active communities up about 17% year over year and up slightly on a sequential basis by the end of fiscal '24, we expect our active community count to exceed 155, representing annual growth of about 15%. With similar growth expected in FY25, we have a clear path toward achieving our goal of having more than 200 communities by the end of fiscal year 2026.

憑藉這種積極的長期前景，我們仍然完全致力於我們的三個多年目標，其中包括擴大我們的社區數量、去槓桿化我們的資產負債表以及提供一個明顯優越的住宅。截至本季末，我們的活躍社群數量為 146 個，年增約 17%，到 24 財年末較上季略有成長，我們預計我們的活躍社群數量將超過 155 個，年成長率約為 15%。鑑於 2025 財年預計將出現類似的成長，我們有明確的道路可以實現到 2026 財年年底擁有 200 多個社區的目標。

As or as it relates to deleveraging our balance sheet, we expect to end FY24 with a net debt to net cap ratio in the mid-30s, even as we invest in the growth of our business. And importantly, we're on track to achieve our target of having net debt to net cap below 30% by the end of FY26.

與資產負債表去槓桿化相關，即使我們投資於業務成長，我們預計到 2024 財年結束時，淨債務與淨上限比率將在 30 多歲左右。重要的是，我們預計將實現到 2026 財年末淨債務與淨上限低於 30% 的目標。

Finally, as it relates to our goal, that 100% of our starts will be Zero Energy Ready by the end of calendar 2025. We continue to make significant progress during the third quarter. Just over 90% of our starts were ready Series homes. This rapid progress has simplified our construction process, so we can now focus on reducing our Zero Energy Ready costs.

最後，與我們的目標相關的是，到 2025 年底，我們 100% 的啟動將實現零能耗就緒。我們在第三季繼續取得重大進展。我們剛開工的 90% 以上都是現成的系列住宅。這項快速進展簡化了我們的施工流程，因此我們現在可以專注於降低零能源就緒成本。

On the sales side, I remain enthusiastic about our potential to drive value from a product position that is truly unique within our industry. We remain confident in the long-term demand for new homes and believe the achievement of our multiyear goals will position us to create significant shareholder value.

在銷售方面，我仍然對我們從行業內真正獨特的產品定位中推動價值的潛力充滿熱情。我們對新房的長期需求仍然充滿信心，並相信多年目標的實現將使我們能夠創造顯著的股東價值。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, AlIan. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, we generated 1,070 new orders, reflecting a pace of 2.4 sales per community per month. As mentioned previously, we closed 1,167 homes generating homebuilding revenue of $589.6 million with an average sales price of about $505,000.

謝謝，艾倫。2024 財年第三季度，我們產生了 1,070 個新訂單，反映出每個社區每月 2.4 筆銷售額的速度。如前所述，我們關閉了 1,167 套房屋，產生了 5.896 億美元的住宅建築收入，平均售價約為 505,000 美元。

Adjusted gross margin, excluding amortized interest impairments and abandonments was 20.3%. SG&A was 11.9% of total revenue as we prepare for near term growth in community count, adjusted EBITDA was $53.5 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue was 2.9%.

調整後毛利率（不包括攤銷利息減損和放棄）為 20.3%。SG&A 佔總收入的 11.9%，因為我們為社區數量的近期成長做好準備，調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,350 萬美元。利息攤銷佔住宅建築收入的百分比為 2.9%。

Our GAAP tax expense was $2.5 million for an effective tax rate of 8.3%. Net income was $27.2 million or $0.88 per share. Finally, during the quarter, we repurchased more than 450,000 shares, representing about 1.5% of the company at an average price just above $28.

我們的 GAAP 稅金為 250 萬美元，有效稅率為 8.3%。淨利潤為 2720 萬美元，即每股 0.88 美元。最後，在本季度，我們以略高於 28 美元的平均價格回購了超過 45 萬股股票，約占公司股份的 1.5%。

Our guidance for the fourth quarter contemplates no improvement in the macro or company-specific environment. With this backdrop, we expect the sales pace similar to our third quarter and ending community count above 155. This would lead to about 1,100 orders for the quarter up versus the prior year, we expect to close about 1,500 homes, up more than 20% compared to the prior year period. ASP should be about $520,000. We expect adjusted gross margin roughly in line with the third quarter at approximately 20%, reflecting no change in sales incentives.

我們對第四季度的指導預計宏觀或公司特定環境不會改善。在此背景下，我們預計銷售速度與第三季相似，最終社區數量將超過 155 個。這將導致本季的訂單量比去年同期增加約 1,100 份，我們預計將關閉約 1,500 套房屋，比去年同期增加 20% 以上。平均售價應該約為 52 萬美元。我們預期調整後的毛利率與第三季大致一致，約 20%，反映出銷售誘因沒有改變。

SG&A as a percentage of total revenue should be about 10% down both sequentially and year over year. We expect this to result in adjusted EBITDA above $80 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue should be about 3%. And our effective tax rate should be about 12% as we continue to benefit from energy efficiency tax credits. That should all lead two diluted earnings per share, about $1.35.

SG&A 佔總收入的百分比應較上季和年減 10% 左右。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將超過 8000 萬美元。利息攤銷佔住宅建築收入的百分比應約為 3%。隨著我們繼續受益於能源效率稅收抵免，我們的有效稅率應該約為 12%。這應該會導致每股攤薄收益增加 2 倍，約為 1.35 美元。

Our Q4 guidance implies that we now expect full year adjusted EBITDA of about $230 million. We know that this is down from our guidance last quarter reflecting the impact of weaker sales. Finding the right balance between volume and margin is always tricky. But in light of our differentiated product, our substantial growth in community count and our positive longer-term view of the market we believe not chasing volume is appropriate for now and context is important.

我們第四季的指引意味著我們現在預計全年調整後 EBITDA 約為 2.3 億美元。我們知道，這低於我們上季度的指導，反映了銷售疲軟的影響。在數量和利潤之間找到適當的平衡總是很棘手的。但鑑於我們的差異化產品、社區數量的大幅增長以及我們對市場的長期積極看法，我們認為目前不追逐數量是合適的，背景也很重要。

Even at the sales pace, we expect to generate $4.20 of diluted earnings per share, representing a double digit return on equity and healthy book value accretion. While conditions in fiscal 2024 have been even choppier than anticipated, we remain optimistic about our ability to grow profitability in fiscal 2025.

即使以銷售速度，我們預計每股攤薄收益將達到 4.20 美元，相當於兩位數的股本回報率和健康的帳面價值增長。儘管 2024 財年的情況比預期更加不穩定，但我們對 2025 財年獲利能力的成長仍持樂觀態度。

Let's start with the top line revenue. We expect to generate full year revenue growth of about 20% next fiscal year. Now many of you will note that our fourth quarter guidance implies backlog entering fiscal year '25 will be down year over year, and it's true that most years backlog entering the fiscal year is a pretty good signal for full year closing.

讓我們從頂線收入開始。我們預計下一財年全年營收將成長約 20%。現在，你們中的許多人會注意到，我們的第四季度指導意味著進入25 財年的積壓訂單將同比下降，而且確實，進入本財年的大多數年份的積壓訂單對於全年結帳來說是一個非常好的訊號。

This year, however, there are some other dynamics to consider. First, as Allan laid out in his update to our multiyear goals. We expect to end 2024 with at least 15% community count growth, followed by another 15% growth in 2025 to support this growth. Our units under production are increasing faster than sales as we start homes in our newer communities.

然而，今年還有一些其他動態需要考慮。首先，正如艾倫在我們的多年目標更新中所闡述的那樣。我們預計到 2024 年底，社區數量將增加至少 15%，隨後在 2025 年再增加 15%，以支持這一增長。隨著我們在新社區開設住宅，我們的生產單位成長速度快於銷售成長速度。

So regardless of our year-end backlog, we expect homes under production going into fiscal year 2025 will be up at least 10% over the 2,400 units under production we had to begin fiscal 2024. Second, we've seen continuing cycle-time improvement, which translates into additional weeks in the spring where we'll be able to start homes that can close within the fiscal year.

因此，無論我們年底的積壓情況如何，我們預計進入 2025 財年的在建房屋數量將比 2024 財年開始的 2,400 套在建房屋增加至少 10%。其次，我們看到週期時間持續改善，這意味著在春季我們將能夠啟動可在本財年內關閉的房屋的額外幾週。

Third, we expect to generate a modest improvement in sales pace. Our fourth quarter guidance would result in the lowest full year sales pace in fiscal year '24 that we've experienced in the last 10 years. We don't think this is the new normal. Any improvement will have a meaningful impact given our expanding community count.

第三，我們預計銷售速度將略有改善。我們的第四季指引將導致 24 財年的全年銷售速度達到過去 10 年來的最低水準。我們認為這不是新常態。鑑於我們不斷擴大的社區數量，任何改進都會產生有意義的影響。

Finally, we expect our average sales price to be about $520,000 consistent with our guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 and up year over year. Taken together, these factors should allow us to generate revenue growth of about 20%. And even without improvement in our operating margin, this growth should translate into robust profitability expansion.

最後，我們預計平均銷售價格約為 52 萬美元，與我們對 2024 財年第四季的指導一致，且同比有所增長。綜合起來，這些因素應該能讓我們達到 20% 左右的營收成長。即使我們的營業利潤率沒有改善，這種成長也應該轉化為強勁的獲利能力擴張。

Now let's talk about margins. Our operating margin has been compressing over the last couple of years for two distinct reasons. First, we've been investing in our product and supply chain to develop and establish a differentiated home. It hasn't been easy and it hasn't been inexpensive, but with 93% of our zero of our starts Zero Energy Ready, those costs are now built-in.

現在我們來談談利潤。由於兩個不同的原因，我們的營業利潤率在過去幾年中一直在壓縮。首先，我們一直在投資我們的產品和供應鏈，以開發和建立差異化的家居。這並不容易，也不便宜，但隨著我們 93% 的零啟動零能耗就緒，這些成本現在已經是內建的。

Now we have the near-term opportunity to reduce them. Second, we've increased overheads to support our rapidly growing community count. With these communities coming online, we expect to grow revenue faster than overheads next year. Taken together in fiscal year 2025, we're optimistic we can generate operating leverage from our revenue growth. Ultimately, any improvement in our operating margin would only enhance our profitability.

現在我們有近期機會減少它們。其次，我們增加了管理費用，以支持快速成長的社群數量。隨著這些社區上線，我們預計明年收入的成長速度將快於管理費用的成長。總的來說，我們對 2025 財年能夠從營收成長中產生營運槓桿感到樂觀。最終，我們營業利潤率的任何改善只會提高我們的獲利能力。

We realize that these comments don't amount to precise guidance but we hope they help you understand our optimism for profitability growth next year. Pivoting to our land, our investment in land. During the quarter, we spent approximately $200 million as we grew our land position to greater than 28,000 lots, our highest total lot position in a decade.

我們意識到這些評論並不構成精確的指導，但我們希望它們能幫助您理解我們對明年獲利成長的樂觀態度。重點關注我們的土地，我們對土地的投資。本季度，我們花費了約 2 億美元，將土地持倉量增加到超過 28,000 塊，這是我們十年來最高的總持倉量。

Importantly, the majority of our incremental lot growth came through options as such, our option percentage was nearly 55% up sequentially, and we expect to drive this percentage higher over time. For the full year, we are expecting land spend of at least $750 million.

重要的是，我們增量批次的成長大部分來自於選擇權本身，我們的選擇權百分比比上一季成長了近 55%，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這一百分比會更高。我們預計全年土地支出至少為 7.5 億美元。

Now turning to the balance sheet. At June 30, 2024, we had total liquidity of $328 million. We expect to end the year with a net debt to net cap in the mid-30s, relatively flat versus the prior year with nothing drawn on the revolver. This will support our growth aspirations and give us flexibility to adjust to future market conditions. And as a reminder, we have no maturities until fiscal 2027.

現在轉向資產負債表。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，我們的流動資金總額為 3.28 億美元。我們預計今年年底的淨債務與淨上限將在 30 多歲左右，與前一年相比相對持平，且沒有任何左輪手槍動用。這將支持我們的成長願望，並使我們能夠靈活地適應未來的市場狀況。提醒一下，我們在 2027 財政年度之前沒有到期日。

On the equity side, based on the earnings guidance, we gave, we expect book value per share to be around $40 by the end of the fiscal year, with further growth expected in fiscal year '25. We've made enormous progress in growing our shareholders' equity, having more than doubled our book value since fiscal year 2020, but note that we still trade at a discount to book. We remain confident that our focus on delivering both earnings growth and deleveraging will close this gap.

在股票方面，根據我們給出的獲利指引，我們預計到本財年末每股帳面價值將達到 40 美元左右，預計 25 財年將進一步成長。我們在增加股東權益方面取得了巨大進展，自 2020 財年以來，我們的帳面價值增加了一倍多，但請注意，我們的交易價格仍低於帳面價值。我們仍然相信，我們對實現獲利成長和去槓桿化的關注將縮小這一差距。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Allen.

這樣，我會將電話轉回艾倫。

Thank you, Dave, and I apologize for my cold. Despite the challenges posed by affordability and consumer sentiment, we delivered solid third quarter financial results. Just as importantly, we continued to make progress toward our multiyear goals as we prepare for fiscal '25. I'm encouraged by our position. We have the strategy to land the financial resources and most importantly, the team to create significant value in the year ahead.

謝謝你，戴夫，我為我的感冒道歉。儘管面臨承受能力和消費者信心帶來的挑戰，我們第三季的財務表現依然強勁。同樣重要的是，在為 25 財年做準備時，我們繼續在實現多年目標方面取得進展。我對我們的立場感到鼓舞。我們制定了獲得財務資源的策略，最重要的是，我們擁有在未來一年創造重大價值的團隊。

With that I'll turn the call over to the operator to take us into Q&A.

之後，我會將電話轉給接線員，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

（操作員說明）Alan Ratner，Zelman & Associates。

Good afternoon. Thanks for the comments in detail so far. Appreciate it. I'd love to first drill in a little bit to the pace and price kind of decision that I'm sure ongoing here. So in the last quarter, you did kind of signaled some temporary pressure on margins because you made a decision to kind of burned through some of the legacy product and some some spec inventory, and we saw that in 3Q and the margin.

午安.感謝您到目前為止的詳細評論。欣賞它。我想先深入了解我確信這裡正在進行的速度和價格決策。因此，在上個季度，您確實暗示了利潤率面臨一些暫時的壓力，因為您決定燒掉一些遺留產品和一些規格庫存，我們在第三季度和利潤率中看到了這一點。

And I think at the time you expected it to be temporary. The fourth quarter guidance seems to imply pretty steady margins at these levels. So I'm curious if you did have to increase incentives even to generate these types of sales in the quarter and because your comments seem to imply that you're not going too hard on the incentives right now, but I guess more broadly, at what point does it make sense to get more aggressive? Is there a certain absorption target that you're thinking about?

我想當時你預計這只是暫時的。第四季的指導似乎意味著在這些水準上利潤率相當穩定。因此，我很好奇，即使為了在本季度產生這些類型的銷售額，您是否確實必須增加激勵措施，因為您的評論似乎暗示您現在不會在激勵措施上太過努力，但我想更廣泛地說，在變得更加激進有什麼意義？您正在考慮某個特定的吸收目標嗎？

Or is it more just a timing thing that it doesn't make sense to do that into a seasonally softer period and you would wait more for the spring to do that.

或者這只是一個時機問題，在季節性疲軟的時期這樣做是沒有意義的，你會等待更多的春天來這樣做。

Hey, Alan, and I apologize again for a heck of a little bit fighting through a summer cold here. Couple of responses. I mean, it's a there's a lot to that question. As I think about what's really different from 90 days ago, we were intentional about moving through non-Ready series specs.

嘿，艾倫，我再次為在夏天的寒冷中掙扎而道歉。幾個回應。我的意思是，這個問題有很多內容。當我思考與 90 天前的真正不同時，我們有意改變非 Ready 系列規格。

What decision we made in the June quarter was in some of the communities, specifically in Houston, where we have introduced Zero Energy Ready, and we saw a fairly significant shift in demand to that $300,000-ish price band. It just didn't feel like the time to say, okay, we want to get back to our 2.5%, 3% or 3-ish absorption rates and try and play in that sandbox.

我們在六月季度做出的決定是在一些社區，特別是在休士頓，我們在那裡推出了零能源就緒，我們看到需求向 30 萬美元左右的價格範圍發生了相當大的轉變。只是感覺現在不是時候說，好吧，我們想回到 2.5%、3% 或 3% 左右的吸收率並嘗試在沙盒中玩。

And it really wasn't in Houston for us a mix issue between Zero Energy Ready and prior series. It was these are new communities, new products and we need to give it a little bit of a chance and we can acknowledge that, hey, on the one hand, a lot of activity below $300,000.

對我們來說，在休士頓，這確實不是零能源就緒和之前系列之間的混合問題。這些是新社區、新產品，我們需要給它一點機會，我們可以承認，嘿，一方面，有很多低於 30 萬美元的活動。

And on the other, frankly, take us out and you can look at all of the public and private that compete in the higher price points. Their paces in Houston in the quarter were in the ones. And that's kind of where we were and we decided not to trying to bend that curve.

另一方面，坦白說，把我們拿出來，你可以看到所有在更高價位上競爭的公共和私人公司。他們本季在休士頓的步伐處於領先地位。這就是我們所處的情況，我們決定不嘗試改變這條曲線。

And I don't think that's forever. I'm probably not going to give it more than six months before we start pulling levers in different ways. But that just felt like in the some in the middle of this and especially because we were hearing from a lot of folks, Gosh, if rates were just a little lower, we'd be we'd be able to pull the trigger. I've got just the last three weeks, we've seen almost 40 basis points of movement in the 10-year. And I feel like we might have a little bit of tailwind coming there.

我認為這不會是永遠的。在我們開始以不同方式拉動槓桿之前，我可能不會給予超過六個月的時間。但這只是感覺就像在這中間的一些人，特別是因為我們聽到很多人的聲音，天哪，如果利率稍微低一點，我們就能夠扣動扳機。就在過去三週，我們已經看到了 10 年中近 40 個基點的變動。我覺得我們可能會有一點順風。

So like I might be wrong than we may have to adjust this in 30 or 60 days. But in particular, in these newly launched community with Zero Energy Ready, we've been kind of cautious. And in the meantime, we are trying to move through all of that non Zero Energy Ready product, both the to-be-builts and the specs.

所以我可能是錯的，我們可能必須在 30 或 60 天內對此進行調整。但特別是，在這些新推出的零能耗社群中，我們一直保持謹慎態度。同時，我們正在努力完善所有非零能耗就緒產品，包括即將建造的產品和規格。

And I'd say we're very competitive with that, but we didn't make any big shift to our incentive approach to achieve these results. And as I said, if you take Houston and San Antonio out, I mean, 28 was a little light to where we wanted to be I think we did find the market slightly tougher, but we would have been within a reasonable distance of our expectations. But for really a set of conscious decisions in Houston and San Antonio.

我想說，我們在這方面非常有競爭力，但我們沒有對激勵方法做出任何重大轉變來實現這些結果。正如我所說，如果你把休士頓和聖安東尼奧排除在外，我的意思是，28 歲對我們想要的目標來說有點輕，我認為我們確實發現市場稍微困難一些，但我們與我們的預期的距離在合理的範圍內。但休士頓和聖安東尼奧確實做出了一系列有意識的決定。

And look I don't want to whine about weather, but I will say and I haven't read all of the transcripts from all of our peers. Houston kind of went through it. We had our division office closed for a week. We had about 60 employees without power for time periods ranging from two to five weeks. I think it was just a pretty tough quarter in Houston.

聽著，我不想抱怨天氣，但我會說，我還沒有閱讀所有同行的所有記錄。休斯頓經歷過這樣的事。我們的部門辦公室關閉了一個星期。我們有大約 60 名員工停電兩到五週不等。我認為這是休士頓一個非常艱難的季度。

Got it. And I appreciate that. And yes, certainly I can understand the challenges there with the weather. I guess, you know, hearing your comments about affordability in the $300,000 and the demand there. It's hard to say whether that's a function of that buyer being more constrained. We are hearing more and more anecdotes about softening on the edges among consumers and in the job market. As we saw in the data today.

知道了。我很欣賞這一點。是的，我當然可以理解天氣帶來的挑戰。我想，聽到您對 30 萬美元的承受能力以及那裡的需求的評論，您就知道了。很難說這是否是買家受到更多限制的結果。我們聽到越來越多關於消費者和就業市場邊緣軟化的軼事。正如我們今天在數據中看到的那樣。

You guys are in a fairly unique position because you're opening up a lot of communities over the next 18 months. And yes, I'm sure to a large extent in at least the near term openings that are kind of fully baked as far as product offerings and things like that. Given kind of what you're seeing on the consumer front, is there any thought or ability to maybe flex some of the product or floor plans or what product types to cater more towards that, that kind of high $300,000, low $400,000 price point, if that's kind of where the depth of demand seems to be today?

你們處於一個相當獨特的位置，因為你們將在未來 18 個月內開放許多社區。是的，我確信在很大程度上至少在近期的空缺中，就產品供應和類似的事情而言，這些空缺已經完全成熟。鑑於您在消費者方面所看到的情況，是否有任何想法或能力可以調整某些產品或平面圖或哪些產品類型來更多地迎合這種需求，即高 300,000 美元、低 400,000 美元的價格點，這是否就是今天的需求深度？

Yes. And again, every market is a little bit different, but let's stay in Houston for a minute. I think you pull up our website and see we have a bunch of communities that have base prices in the high threes. So we're not that far removed from where there was real enthusiasm in this quarter.

是的。再說一次，每個市場都有點不同，但讓我們在休士頓停留一會兒。我想你打開我們的網站，會發現我們有很多社區的基本價格都很高。因此，我們距離本季真正熱情的地方並不遙遠。

And in fact, our product mix, and this is now not a Houston comments. I don't have it at my fingertips, but across our portfolio, our deliveries in the quarter were down what 80 square feet -- about 3% year over year. So we have had a little bit of a twist, if you will, in the portfolio Alan, where we are focused on slightly smaller four brand plans is one of the many strategies to deal with this affordability challenge, but we are selling a different home.

而事實上，我們的產品組合，這現在不是休士頓的評論。我手頭上沒有這個數據，但在我們的投資組合中，本季的交付量減少了 80 平方英尺，比去年同期下降了約 3%。因此，如果你願意的話，我們在艾倫的投資組合中發生了一些變化，我們專注於規模較小的四個品牌計劃，這是應對這一負擔能力挑戰的眾多策略之一，但我們正在銷售不同的房屋。

And that's the thing that whether it's 2,100 square feet or 2,200 square feet or some other number on either side of that we've chosen to take on standing out by offering the home that others can't or won't builds. And I think we need to just keep pressing that into the market.

這就是無論是 2,100 平方英尺還是 2,200 平方英尺或任何其他數字，我們都選擇透過提供其他人無法或不會建造的房屋來脫穎而出。我認為我們需要繼續將其推向市場。

And it's with consumers. It's with realtors. I'm really optimistic when people see it when they understand it it's kind of like how can I live without this. But if they're doing a screen on a price per square foot basis, I don't think there's anything we can do. That's going to flip our product that's going to drop us down into that tier where what I would call the price oriented builders are really competing, and I'm kind of glad about that because I don't think that's even if we wanted to do that, we'd be terribly well equipped to do so.

這與消費者有關。是和房地產經紀人一起的。當人們看到它並理解它時，我真的很樂觀，就像沒有它我該如何生活一樣。但如果他們按照每平方英尺的價格製作螢幕，我認為我們無能為力。這將顛覆我們的產品，使我們陷入一個我所說的以價格為導向的建築商真正競爭的水平，我對此感到很高興，因為我認為即使我們願意這樣做也不會發生這種情況我們完全有能力做到這一點。

Understood. Appreciate the thoughts. Thanks a lot.

明白了。欣賞這些想法。多謝。

Julio Romero, Sidoti & Company.

胡里奧·羅梅羅，西多蒂公司。

Thanks. Hey, good afternoon, Alan and David. On you guys talked a little bit about about Texas and the weakness you saw there. Tom, can you maybe give us a quick state of the union on what you're seeing in your other geographic markets at the moment?

謝謝。嘿，下午好，艾倫和大衛。你們談論了一些關於德克薩斯州的事情以及你在那裡看到的弱點。湯姆，您能否向我們簡單介紹一下您目前在其他地區市場所看到的情況？

Yes. I will tell you that outside of those two markets, as I said, kind of 2.8%, there was strength by coastally. Felt pretty good about our Mid-Atlantic business. Virginia, in particular, showed some strength. Southern Cal and Las Vegas were pretty strong. Nashville in the middle of the country or not on either coast was pretty strong.

是的。我會告訴你，除了這兩個市場之外，正如我所說，大約 2.8%，沿海地區也表現強勁。對我們的大西洋中部業務感覺非常好。尤其是維吉尼亞州，展現了一定的實力。南加州和拉斯維加斯的表現相當強勁。納許維爾在該國中部或不在任何海岸都相當強大。

So I would say that there wasn't a theme that I can really say strength versus weakness other than what we really saw is a fairly significant shift in the total number of transactions in that sub $300,000 price point in those two texas markets, which differed frankly, from what we had seen in prior quarters.

因此，我想說的是，除了我們真正看到的是這兩個德克薩斯市場300,000 美元以下價格點的交易總數發生相當顯著的變化之外，沒有一個主題可以真正說強與弱，這兩個市場有所不同坦白說，從我們前幾季的情況來看。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I kind of the for the fourth quarter ASP. guidance is a nice step up from prior quarters. Is that just, -- is that?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我對第四季度的平均售價進行了預測。與前幾季相比，指導是一個很好的進步。這只是——是嗎？

Yes. You're starting to see some Zero Energy homes start to come through and those were sold as to-be-built.

是的。您開始看到一些零能源房屋開始建成，並且這些房屋作為待建房屋出售。

Yes. And then did you guys mention your land spend year-to-date and what you're expecting for the year?

是的。然後你們有沒有提到你們今年迄今為止的土地支出以及今年的預期？

We talked about for the full year, Julio, we'd be at about $750 million. You can just back up what we've done full year what we've done year-to-date to get the fourth quarter estimates.

Julio，我們談到全年的收入約為 7.5 億美元。您只需支持我們全年所做的工作和年初至今所做的工作即可獲得第四季度的估計值。

Okay, perfect. That's it for now. Thanks very much.

好的，完美。現在就這樣。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions) Alex Barrón, Housing Research Center.

（操作員說明）Alex Barrón，住房研究中心。

So I heard you talk about some weather issues in Texas, but what happened in the southeast orders, seem to be a bit low there?

所以我聽到你談論德克薩斯州的一些天氣問題，但是東南部訂單發生了什麼，那裡的訂單似乎有點低？

Yes. We it's funny we found ourselves in one of our bigger markets, Atlanta, between community count, we had a dip in community count. We closed out earlier in the year. We weren't able to pull forward the activations in the new communities, we had kind of a troughing in community count that was among the bigger factors.

是的。有趣的是，我們發現自己身處更大的市場之一，亞特蘭大，在社區數量之間，我們的社區數量有所下降。我們在今年早些時候關閉了。我們無法推進新社區的激活，社區數量出現了低谷，這是一個更大的因素。

Got it. Yes, because we survey your community counts, and it looked like it jumped up. So maybe it's just recent openings, I guess.

知道了。是的，因為我們調查了你們的社區數量，看起來它正在增加。所以我想也許這只是最近的空缺。

Yes, there's always a timing thing. Like the within a quarter, it can be a little bit misleading. If you are open on I'll just pick random dates, if you're open April 1, but you're sold out by April 15, well, you had it at the beginning. If your next community opens the last week of June, you have but you lost 70 days in between. There is not a demand pattern or a positioning issue.

是的，總是有一個時間問題。就像四分之一之內一樣，它可能有點誤導。如果你在 4 月 1 日開門，但到 4 月 15 日就賣完了，那麼我會隨機選擇日期。如果您的下一個社區在 6 月最後一周開放，那麼您已經浪費了 70 天的時間。不存在需求模式或定位問題。

I'm pretty comfortable with our sales paces, and this community count is broad-based that is coming, what we've already had and what's in front of us. It's really distributed across our footprint. So I mean, there'll be quarterly anomalies in the data, but there really isn't a southeast message, I don't believe

我對我們的銷售節奏感到非常滿意，而且這個社區數量是基礎廣泛的，即將到來的、我們已經擁有的以及我們面前的。它確實分佈在我們的足跡中。所以我的意思是，數據中會有季度異常，但確實沒有東南消息，我不相信

And assuming the Fed does start to lower interest rates soon and that leads to lower mortgage rates, do you guys anticipate to kind of sticking with your same incentives or decreasing them? Or what's sort of the thought process as rates start to come down?

假設聯準會確實很快就開始降低利率，從而導致抵押貸款利率下降，你們預計會堅持相同的激勵措施還是減少激勵措施？或者當利率開始下降時，思考過程是什麼樣的？

Well, the thing about incentives is the market really tells us where they need to be and what's the market? On the market's buyers, but it's also buyers who are influenced by what other people do right? We don't exist in a vacuum. So I am hopeful that lower rates could lead to an environment where we'd see lower incentives. And I think that seems pretty likely. I can't predict what everybody else is going to do.

好吧，關於激勵措施的問題是，市場確實告訴我們他們需要在哪裡以及市場是什麼？在市場上的買家中，但也是受其他人的行為影響的買家嗎？我們並不存在於真空中。因此，我希望較低的利率能帶來一個激勵措施減少的環境。我認為這似乎很有可能。我無法預測其他人會做什麼。

And kind of back to my questioning with Alan at the beginning, we're not going to sit back and not compete for sales, right, be too proud to incent. So we will always compete. It's just sometimes you've got to pick your windows. We made that choice. I think if rates start to come down, we and other builders will definitely benefit.

回到我一開始對艾倫的提問，我們不會袖手旁觀，不爭奪銷售，對吧，太驕傲而無法激勵。所以我們會一直競爭。只是有時你必須選擇你的窗戶。我們做出了這樣的選擇。我認為如果利率開始下降，我們和其他建築商肯定會受益。

Got it. And on high to ask one more, I was happy to see you're starting to buy back shares. Is that more of an opportunistic thing? Or do you think it's more of an ongoing shift in strategy?

知道了。再次問一個問題，我很高興看到你開始回購股票。這是否更像是一種機會主義的行為？或者您認為這更多的是策略上的持續轉變？

Slight shift in strategy, but it's Dave. But I would tell you is we have a very consistent model we use for capital allocation and we consider we look at excess capital in the business returns and risks amongst share repurchases, debt repurchases and incremental land spend.

策略略有轉變，但這是戴夫。但我想告訴你的是，我們有一個非常一致的資本配置模型，我們認為我們會考慮業務回報中的過剩資本以及股票回購、債務回購和增量土地支出中的風險。

We did as you mentioned, buy back 1.5% of the company about that in the quarter and will always be good capital allocators and focus on our models. And again, the model hasn't changed. So not much more to say than that, but it's a consistent model for excess capital.

正如您所提到的，我們在本季度回購了該公司 1.5% 的股份，並將永遠是良好的資本配置者，並專注於我們的模型。再說一次，模型沒有改變。因此，沒什麼好說的，但這是過剩資本的一致模型。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊·麥卡利斯，韋德布希。

You may go ahead for your especially more questions. So I'm just trying to catch up and figure out the what you gave on absorptions day because if you're going from 146 communities at the end of 3Q to over 155. I mean, are all of those back half weighted? Or was there some timing issues as to why just through the numbers getting bigger that you wouldn't see a little bit higher absorption, especially with what Allan was talking about it in Atlanta and some timing issues there.

您可以繼續提出您特別更多的問題。因此，我只是想了解您在吸收日提供的內容，因為如果您要從第三季末的 146 個社區增加到超過 155 個社區。我的意思是，這一切都是半配重嗎？或者是否存在一些時間問題，為什麼僅僅通過數字變大，你就看不到更高的吸收率，特別是艾倫在亞特蘭大談論的內容以及那裡的一些時間問題。

Well, I would tell you, Jay, we've assumed the absorption pace in the environment really doesn't change much quarter-to-quarter. I'm happy to take it offline on the math with you, but we kind of assume things look pretty similar to the way they look throughout the third quarter and the fourth quarter.

好吧，我想告訴你，傑伊，我們假設環境中的吸收速度實際上每季都沒有太大變化。我很高興與您一起離線進行數學計算，但我們假設事情看起來與第三季和第四季的情況非常相似。

I'm not sure if there's a math you want to kind of go through, but we can do it offline, if you'd like.

我不確定您是否想要進行數學運算，但如果您願意，我們可以離線進行。

I mean, it is that if you were going to hit that 155 in the last month of the quarter, something like that -- would guess that would make sense in terms of gas not getting any better absorption.

我的意思是，如果你要在本季度的最後一個月達到 155，類似的事情 - 會猜測，就氣體沒有得到任何更好的吸收而言，這是有意義的。

That's right. I mean the communities come online, as you would imagine, throughout the quarter, and there is some coming on in the latter part of the quarter.

這是正確的。我的意思是，正如您所想像的那樣，整個季度社區都會上線，並且在本季度後半段還會出現一些社區。

Yes. We will definitely have some September activations. And so the average community count will I don't know if it will be the exact arithmetic average of the beginning of the period. The end of the period. If anything, it might be slightly weighted to the back half. But you take a number in the middle and use the same absorption rate, and that's kind of where our sales guide came from.

是的。我們肯定會在 9 月進行一些激活活動。因此，我不知道平均社區數量是否是該時期開始時的精確算術平均值。期末。如果有的話，它可能會稍微加重到後半部。但是你在中間取一個數字並使用相同的吸收率，這就是我們的銷售指南的來源。

And Jay, I think we start to see some rate cutting. I'd like us to do, and I'm hopeful we're planning to do better. But honestly, our from a guide perspective, we wanted to be pretty direct about if nothing changed in the environment, here's what here's what the math is, and that's where the 1,100 came from.

傑伊，我認為我們開始看到一些降息。我希望我們能夠做到，並且我希望我們計劃做得更好。但老實說，從指南的角度來看，我們希望非常直接地了解環境是否有任何變化，這就是數學的內容，這就是 1,100 的來源。

Okay. So is it too much of a stretch to assume that sales activity from June to July didn't get much better? And any color you can give us on what happened in July?

好的。那麼，假設 6 月至 7 月的銷售活動沒有太大改善是否太過牽強？您能為我們介紹一下 7 月發生的事情嗎？

The first part of July looked a lot like June. The last weeks been better. But one week doesn't create a foundation for a quarterly or an annual guidance but I would definitely tell you the last week in particular has felt quite a bit better. But we trying not to get too enthused about one week or or too discouraged by one week. But I would say the back half of July has trended better than the front half.

七月上旬看起來很像六月。過去幾週好多了。但一周並不能為季度或年度指導奠定基礎，但我肯定會告訴你，特別是上週感覺好多了。但我們盡量不要對某一週過於興奮，或對某一週過於沮喪。但我想說，七月後半段的趨勢比前半段好。

And then the only other question I had in terms of specs, it looks like your finished specs were up a little sequentially, but up a lot year-on-year. I'm assuming there's you guys are going to try and blow through some of that. And that's why there is some conservatism around gross margin for the fourth quarter.

然後，我在規格方面遇到的唯一一個問題是，看起來您的成品規格依次上升了一點，但比去年同期上升了很多。我假設你們會嘗試打破其中的一些。這就是為什麼人們對第四季的毛利率持保守態度。

I think your assessment is right, Jay, your assessment is correct, Jay. I wouldn't say blow through, but certainly, there's some any year, especially on non-Zero Energy Ready specs, which we talked about last quarter. We don't want to end the year with too many QMI, quick move-in homes so.

我認為你的評估是正確的，傑伊，你的評估是正確的，傑伊。我不會說突破，但當然，每年都會有一些，特別是在我們上個季度討論過的非零能源就緒規格上。我們不想在今年結束時有太多的 QMI，所以要快速入住。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And that was our last question. I will turn it back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

這是我們的最後一個問題。我會將其轉回給發言者以供結束發言。

I want to thank everyone for tuning into our third quarter call. We look forward to talking to you next quarter on our fiscal year-end. Thank you very much, and that concludes today's call.

我要感謝大家收聽我們的第三季電話會議。我們期待在下個季度的財政年度結束時與您交談。非常感謝大家，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。