Beazer Homes USA Inc (BZH) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended September 30, 2023. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website later today.

下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的第四季度和財年收益電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音，今天晚些時候將在公司網站上提供重播。

In addition, presentation slides intended to accompany this call are available within the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.beazer.com. At this point, I will turn the call over to David Goldberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

此外，本次電話會議的簡報投影片可在本公司網站 www.beazer.com 的投資人關係部分取得。現在，我將把電話轉給資深副總裁兼財務長大衛‧戈德伯格。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes conference call for our fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2023.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 2023 財年第四季和全年電話會議。

Before we begin, you should be aware that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors described in our SEC filings which may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections.

在我們開始之前，您應該知道，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。此類聲明涉及我們向 SEC 文件中描述的已知和未知風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異。

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date the statement is made. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is simply not possible to predict all such factors.

任何前瞻性聲明僅代表聲明發布之日的情況。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。新的因素不斷出現，而且根本不可能預測所有這些因素。

Joining me is Allan Merrill, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Today, Alan will discuss highlights from our fiscal 2023 results, an update on our multiyear goals, how we are navigating the affordability challenges for homebuyers and our growth expectations for fiscal 2024.

與我一起出席的是我們的董事長兼執行長艾倫·梅里爾 (Allan Merrill)。今天，艾倫將討論我們 2023 財年業績的亮點、我們多年目標的最新情況、我們如何應對購房者的負擔能力挑戰以及我們對 2024 財年的增長預期。

I'll then provide details on our fiscal 2023 full year results updates on our cycle time and cost reduction initiatives, additional details on our expectations for the first quarter and full year and end with a look at our balance sheet and book value. We will conclude with a wrap-up by Allan. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions during the remaining time.

然後，我將提供有關我們的2023 財年全年業績更新、週期時間和成本削減計劃的詳細信息、我們對第一季度和全年預期的更多詳細信息，並最後查看我們的資產負債表和帳面價值。我們將以艾倫的總結作為結束。在我們準備好發言後，我們將在剩餘時間內回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Alan.

我現在將把電話轉給艾倫。

Thank you, Dave, and thank you for joining us on our call today. I'm extremely proud of our team's efforts and results for fiscal '23. We overcame an exceptionally difficult sales environment in the first quarter of last year. Which allowed us to make significant progress against our balanced growth and multiyear goals.

謝謝戴夫，也謝謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我對我們團隊在 23 財年的努力和成果感到非常自豪。去年第一季度，我們克服了異常困難的銷售環境。這使我們能夠在平衡成長和多年目標方面取得重大進展。

With a strong finish in the fourth quarter, we delivered both financial and operational results that met or exceeded our expectations.

隨著第四季度的強勁表現，我們的財務和營運業績都達到或超越了我們的預期。

From a financial perspective, we generated more than $150 million of net income, resulting in healthy returns on both assets and equity. We invested almost $600 million in land and land development and at the same time, we strengthened our balance sheet with leverage now below 40% and stockholders' equity above $1 billion.

從財務角度來看，我們產生了超過 1.5 億美元的淨利潤，實現了資產和股權的健康回報。我們在土地和土地開發方面投資了近 6 億美元，同時，我們強化了資產負債表，槓桿率現已低於 40%，股東權益超過 10 億美元。

From an operational perspective, we positioned ourselves for growth by increasing our community count and controlled lot position. We reclaimed more than 2 months of construction cycle time, and we expanded our leadership in energy efficiency.

從營運角度來看，我們透過增加社區數量和控制地段位置來實現成長。我們將施工週期縮短了兩個多月，並擴大了我們在能源效率方面的領先地位。

We were also recognized as a top workplace, reflecting our efforts to sustain an exceptional level of employee engagement. Against a very difficult interest rate and housing backdrop, FY '23 challenged us in many ways, and we came through in very good shape.

我們也被評為頂級工作場所，這反映了我們為維持卓越的員工敬業度所做的努力。在利率和房屋市場非常困難的背景下，23 財年在許多方面給我們帶來了挑戰，但我們的表現非常好。

In the middle of fiscal '23, we laid out 3 multiyear goals intended to define specific targets and timelines as part of our long-standing balanced growth strategy. These targets represent our highest priorities and are centered around community count growth, balance sheet strength and the energy efficiency of our homes.

在 23 財年中期，我們制定了 3 個多年目標，旨在確定具體目標和時間表，作為我們長期平衡成長策略的一部分。這些目標代表了我們的最高優先事項，以社區數量成長、資產負債表實力和家庭能源效率為中心。

As it relates to our growth, we ended the year with 134 active communities, up 9% versus the prior year as we successfully activated 60 new communities. In FY '24, we expect year-over-year growth in our active community count each quarter. Further out, we have excellent visibility to more than 200 active communities by the end of fiscal 2026.

就我們的成長而言，我們在年底擁有 134 個活躍社區，比上年增長 9%，因為我們成功啟動了 60 個新社區。在 24 財年，我們預計每季的活躍社群數量都會年增。此外，到 2026 財年末，我們對 200 多個活躍社區擁有出色的可見度。

As it relates to our balance sheet, we finished the year with our net debt to net capitalization ratio at 36%, representing a 9-point decline versus the prior year. Our profitability expectations for fiscal '24 should allow us to reduce that ratio into the low 30s by the end of this year, putting our multiyear goal of net debt to net cap below 30%, well within reach by the end of fiscal '26.

就我們的資產負債表而言，我們的淨負債與淨資本比率為 36%，比前一年下降了 9 個百分點。我們對 24 財年的獲利預期應使我們能夠在今年年底前將該比率降至 30 左右，從而使我們的淨債務與淨上限的多年目標低於 30%，到 26 財年末完全可以實現。

Finally, as it relates to the homes we built, we remain the only public builder with a commitment to building 100% of our homes to the Department of Energy's Zero Energy Ready standard. In 2023, we greatly expanded our production of these homes with the share of 0 energy-ready starts jumping from 2% in Q1 to 28% in the fourth quarter. By the end of fiscal '24, we expect well over half our starts will meet the DOE standard positioning us to have every home we start 0 energy ready by the end of 2025.

最後，由於涉及我們建造的房屋，我們仍然是唯一一家承諾以能源部零能耗標準建造 100% 房屋的公共建築商。 2023 年，我們大幅擴大了這些住宅的產量，0 能源就緒型住宅的份額從第一季的 2% 躍升至第四季度的 28%。到 24 財年末，我們預計超過一半的開工項目將達到美國能源部標準，到 2025 年底，我們開工的每個家庭都將實現零能耗。

We remain confident in the longer-term supply and demand dynamics that underpin our strategy and our industry. But affordability has been is and is likely to remain the central challenge for new home sales.

我們對支撐我們策略和行業的長期供需動態仍然充滿信心。但負擔能力一直是而且很可能仍然是新房銷售的核心挑戰。

Part of the challenge is consumer psychology. with buyers daunted by monthly payments larger than they're accustomed to. But the other part is math. Many prospects simply don't have the income to afford the payments for the home or the location they desire. To help combat this, we structure -- we have structured our incentives to allow customers to direct dollars between home price discounts and closing costs, which often include buy-downs. This allows different buyers to make different choices.

部分挑戰來自消費者心理。買家因每月付款額高於他們習慣的金額而感到畏懼。但另一部分是數學。許多潛在客戶根本沒有足夠的收入來支付他們想要的房屋或地點的費用。為了幫助解決這個問題，我們制定了激勵措施，讓客戶在房價折扣和成交成本（通常包括買斷成本）之間直接使用美元。這使得不同的買家可以做出不同的選擇。

In a rising rate environment, builder financing incentives typically increase, at least initially, and our experience confirms this. As the 30-year mortgage rate moved from about 7% at the end of June, to just over 8% in October. Our contribution towards closing costs increased about 1 point on new sales. As part of our mortgage choice program, our lenders also contribute to closing costs and rate buy-downs, which leverages our contributions.

在利率上升的環境下，建築商的融資激勵措施通常會增加，至少在初期是如此，我們的經驗也證實了這一點。 30 年期抵押貸款利率從 6 月底的 7% 左右升至 10 月的 8% 多一點。我們對新銷售額的結帳成本貢獻增加了約 1 個百分點。作為我們抵押貸款選擇計劃的一部分，我們的貸方也為結帳成本和利率下調做出了貢獻，這充分利用了我們的貢獻。

Of course, our mortgage strategy is about more than just buy downs. It's about choice. We have multiple choice lenders available to provide loan estimates to every buyer which incentivizes our lenders to compete on loan programs, closing costs, buy-downs and service levels in addition to rates.

當然，我們的抵押貸款策略不僅僅是購買首付。這是關於選擇。我們有多種選擇的貸款機構可以為每個買家提供貸款估算，這激勵我們的貸款機構在貸款計劃、成交成本、購買和服務水平以及利率方面進行競爭。

We have two other differentiators for homebuyers, both of which directly target affordability concerns. Surprising performance encompasses our construction quality and energy efficiency efforts with measurable monthly savings on utility bills for our buyers. Choice plans enables buyers of to-be-built homes to select floor plan elements to match their lifestyle at no additional cost. We are laser focused on affordability and believe we have created a differentiated strategy to address it.

我們為購屋者提供了另外兩個差異化因素，這兩個因素都直接針對負擔能力問題。令人驚訝的業績包括我們在建築品質和能源效率方面所做的努力，以及每月為買家節省可觀的水電費。選擇計劃使待建房屋的買家能夠選擇與其生活方式相符的平面圖元素，而無需支付額外費用。我們高度關注可負擔性，並相信我們已經制定了差異化策略來解決這個問題。

While the year ahead undoubtedly holds both opportunities and challenges, we continue to expect growth on many fronts. Our larger community count provides the basis for our expectations for more closings leading to higher revenue and profitability in 2024 as we aggressively pursue our multiyear goals.

儘管未來的一年無疑機會與挑戰並存，但我們仍然期望在許多方面實現成長。隨著我們積極追求多年目標，我們更大的社區數量為我們期望在 2024 年實現更多關閉帶來更高的收入和盈利能力奠定了基礎。

Overall, I'm very pleased with what we were able to accomplish in fiscal '23 and remain excited about where we're going in fiscal '24 and beyond.

總的來說，我對我們在 23 財年取得的成就感到非常滿意，並對我們在 24 財年及以後的發展仍然感到興奮。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Dave.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Allan. I'm going to focus my comments this afternoon on our annual results. You can find our detailed fourth quarter performance in our press release.

謝謝，艾倫。今天下午我的評論重點是我們的年度業績。您可以在我們的新聞稿中找到我們第四季度業績的詳細資訊。

For the full year, we generated an average pace of 2.6 sales per community per month with a cancellation rate of 20%. Homebuilding revenue was $2.2 billion, down about 5% as the benefit from higher ASPs largely offset a decline in closings.

全年，每個社區每月平均銷售額為 2.6 筆，取消率為 20%。住宅建築收入為 22 億美元，下降約 5%，因為平均售價上漲帶來的收益在很大程度上抵消了成交量的下降。

Gross margin, excluding amortized interest, impairments and abandonments, was 23.1%. This was the second highest annual gross margin over the last 10 years. SG&A as a percentage of total revenue was 11.5% as we continued to invest in our growth. This all led to adjusted EBITDA of $272 million.

毛利率（不包括攤銷利息、減損和廢棄）為 23.1%。這是過去 10 年來第二高的年度毛利率。隨著我們繼續投資於成長，SG&A 佔總營收的百分比為 11.5%。這一切導致調整後 EBITDA 達到 2.72 億美元。

Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue was 3.1%, flat compared to the prior year. Our GAAP effective tax rate was 13.1% as we benefited from energy efficiency tax credits. This led to net income of $159 million or $5.16 of earnings per share.

利息攤銷佔住宅建築收入的百分比為 3.1%，與前一年持平。由於我們受益於能源效率稅收抵免，我們的 GAAP 有效稅率為 13.1%。這導致淨利潤達到 1.59 億美元，即每股收益 5.16 美元。

Land and land development spending accelerated in the fourth quarter allowing us to grow our controlled lot position both sequentially and year-over-year, while also increasing our percentage of lots controlled under option.

第四季土地和土地開發支出加速，使我們能夠連續和同比增加我們的控制地塊頭寸，同時也增加了我們透過選擇權控制地塊的百分比。

In the beginning of fiscal 2023, we set forth cycle time and cost reduction objectives as we targeted regaining ground lost during COVID. I'm happy to report -- I'm happy to report we made significant gains on both fronts during the year.

在 2023 財年伊始，我們制定了周期時間和成本削減目標，旨在收復新冠疫情期間失去的陣地。我很高興地報告——我很高興地報告這一年我們在這兩方面都取得了重大進展。

In the fourth quarter, cycle times on closings were down more than 2 months versus the prior year. In fiscal year '24, we expect further improvements as we drive cycle times closer to prepandemic levels.

第四季度，成交週期比去年同期縮短了 2 個多月。在 24 財年，隨著我們將週期時間推向大流行前的水平，我們預計會進一步改善。

Turning to cost reductions. We are pleased with our ability to recognize significant savings in the back half of the year primarily through lower lumber costs. This contributed to gross margins increasing sequentially from Q2 through Q4 on an average sales price that was declining primarily due to product and feature changes implemented to address affordability.

轉向降低成本。我們很高興能夠在今年下半年主要透過降低木材成本實現大幅節省。這使得毛利率從第二季到第四季連續增加，而平均銷售價格則下降，這主要是由於為解決負擔能力而實施的產品和功能變化。

Looking forward to the fiscal first quarter. Quarter-to-date sales are up year-over-year, but were more sluggish when mortgage rates reach 8%. Although we are encouraged by the recent move down in rates, our guidance today does not assume this will translate into a meaningful improvement in sales pace this quarter. We are currently expecting at least 650 sales, which will be up more than 30% of last year's very low base.

期待第一財季。本季至今的銷售額年增，但當抵押貸款利率達到 8% 時，銷售額更加低迷。儘管我們對最近的利率下降感到鼓舞，但我們今天的指導方針並不認為這會轉化為本季銷售速度的有意義的改善。我們目前預計銷量至少為 650 輛，比去年的極低基數成長 30% 以上。

Our ending active community count should be flat sequentially and up 10% year-over-year. On the income statement, transformer issues are likely to adversely impact our conversion rate as we anticipate having about 50 finished homes awaiting power at quarter end. We still expect a backlog conversion ratio above 45% as we benefit from improved cycle times, resulting in year-over-year revenue growth. Our ASP should be around $510,000. We expect adjusted homebuilding gross margin to be 23% or higher.

我們的期末活躍社群數量應該與上一季持平，但年增 10%。在損益表上，變壓器問題可能會對我們的轉換率產生不利影響，因為我們預計到季度末將有約 50 套成品房屋等待通電。我們仍然預計積壓訂單轉換率將超過 45%，因為我們受益於週期時間的改善，從而實現收入同比增長。我們的平均售價應該在 51 萬美元左右。我們預計調整後的住宅建築毛利率將達到 23% 或更高。

Our absolute dollars spent on SG&A should be up approximately $2 million versus the same quarter last year. We expect this to result in adjusted EBITDA around $40 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue should be in the low 3s, and our effective tax rate to be approximately 11% as we continue to benefit from energy efficiency tax credits. This should lead to diluted earnings per share around $0.70.

與去年同期相比，我們在 SG&A 上花費的絕對金額應增加約 200 萬美元。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 約為 4000 萬美元。利息攤銷佔住宅建築收入的百分比應在 3 左右，我們的有效稅率約為 11%，因為我們繼續受益於能源效率稅收抵免。這將導致每股攤薄收益約為 0.70 美元。

Turning to our full year. Our expectations assume the economy, housing conditions and mortgage rates remain relatively stable. In this environment, we expect to spend at least $700 million on land acquisition and development as we position for future growth. We are targeting double-digit growth in community count by year-end.

轉向我們的全年。我們的預期假設經濟、住房條件和抵押貸款利率保持相對穩定。在這種環境下，我們預計將花費至少 7 億美元用於土地收購和開發，為未來的成長做好準備。我們的目標是到年底社區數量達到兩位數成長。

Revenue growth will be a result of higher community count and year-over-year gains in backlog conversions. This should more than offset a decline in our ASP, which we anticipate to average $500,000 for the full year. We expect to generate adjusted homebuilding gross margins in the range of 22% to 23% with a large share of new communities in our mix.

收入成長將歸因於社區數量的增加和積壓轉換的同比增長。這應該足以抵消我們平均售價的下降，我們預計全年平均售價為 50 萬美元。我們預計調整後的住宅建築毛利率將在 22% 至 23% 之間，其中新社區佔很大比例。

Our effective tax rate to be near the midpoint of the 15% to 20% range we provided during last quarter's call. Taken together, we expect to generate double-digit returns and continue to grow book value significantly.

我們的有效稅率接近我們在上個季度電話會議中提供的 15% 至 20% 範圍的中點。總的來說，我們預計將產生兩位數的回報，並繼續大幅成長帳面價值。

Achieving our target for double-digit returns will lead our book value per share over $40 by the end of the fiscal year. The chart on Slide 15 shows the progress we've made thus far in growing our stockholders' equity, having more than doubled our book value since the end of fiscal year '19. At the same time, the quality of our book has improved, as our DTA as a percentage of book has gone from about 40% 3 years ago to nearly 10% at the end of this year and will continue to decline.

實現兩位數回報目標將使我們的每股帳面價值在本財年結束時超過 40 美元。投影片 15 上的圖表顯示了我們迄今為止在增加股東權益方面所取得的進展，自 19 財年末以來，我們的帳面價值增加了一倍多。同時，我們的圖書品質也有所提高，我們的DTA佔圖書的比例​​已從3年前的40%左右下降到今年年底的近10%，並且還會繼續下降。

On to the balance sheet. Total liquidity at the end of the year was over $610 million comprised of $346 million of unrestricted cash and $265 million available on our fully undrawn revolver. Reducing our net debt to net cap translated into net debt to LTM adjusted EBITDA of 2.3x.

到資產負債表上。截至年底，流動性總額超過 6.1 億美元，其中 3.46 億美元為非限制性現金，2.65 億美元可用於我們完全未提取的左輪手槍。將我們的淨債務減少至淨上限，將淨債務轉化為 LTM 調整後 EBITDA 的 2.3 倍。

Our 2025 senior notes represent our nearest maturity, and we anticipate using a combination of repayment and refinancing to address it.

我們的 2025 年優先票據代表了我們最近的到期日，我們預計將採用償還和再融資相結合的方式來解決這個問題。

Subsequent to the end of the quarter, there were three noteworthy developments. First, we expanded our revolver equipments to $300 million. Second, Moody's Investor Services increased our rating from B2 to B1. And finally, we repurchased $4 million of our 2025 senior notes, bringing the total outstanding principal below $200 million.

本季末出現了三項值得注意的進展。首先，我們將左輪手槍設備擴大到 3 億美元。其次，穆迪投資者服務公司將我們的評級從 B2 提高到 B1。最後，我們回購了 400 萬美元的 2025 年優先票據，使未償還本金總額低於 2 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Allan.

這樣，我會將電話轉回艾倫。

Thank you, Dave. 2023 was a highly successful year for the company. We overcame the challenges associated with much higher mortgage rates and delivered excellent financial and operational results. Equally important, we entered FY '24 with a differentiated strategy and attractive geographic footprint and expectations for growth across most financial metrics.

謝謝你，戴夫。 2023 年對公司來說是非常成功的一年。我們克服了抵押貸款利率大幅上漲帶來的挑戰，並取得了出色的財務和營運表現。同樣重要的是，我們在進入 24 財年時採取了差異化策略、有吸引力的地理足跡以及大多數財務指標的成長預期。

Looking beyond this year, we have provided investors with 3 specific multiyear goals to track our progress, growing our community count, strengthening our balance sheet and extending our leadership in building energy-efficient homes. I'm confident that we have the team and the resources to create growing and durable value for our stakeholders in the years ahead.

展望今年，我們為投資者提供了 3 個具體的多年目標，以追蹤我們的進展、增加社區數量、加強我們的資產負債表以及擴大我們在建造節能住宅方面的領導地位。我相信，我們擁有團隊和資源，可以在未來幾年為我們的利害關係人創造不斷增長和持久的價值。

And with that I will turn the call over to the operator to take us into Q&A.

然後我會將電話轉給接線員，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Julio Romero from Sidoti & Company.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Sidoti & Company 的 Julio Romero。

Thanks. Good afternoon, Alan and David. So it was impressive to see that 42% year-over-year jump in land investment in the fourth quarter. You talked about the full year expectation, I believe, about $700 million. Just how do you expect that to trend from a cadence perspective throughout the year? And how much does the reduced construction cycle times you've achieved to free up some free cash flow for that increased land spend?

謝謝。下午好，艾倫和大衛。因此，第四季土地投資年增 42% 令人印象深刻。我相信您談到全年預期約為 7 億美元。從節奏的角度來看，您預計全年的趨勢如何？您所實現的施工週期時間縮短了多少，從而為增加的土地支出釋放了一些自由現金流？

Julio, I think we'll probably avoid talking about the cadence on land spend at this point in the year. It's still a little bit early. Obviously, we've got our pipeline in front of us, and we talked about kind of what we expect to spend for the full year. I would tell you the increase in the cash flow, frankly, does help, but we have plenty of liquidity on the balance sheet. You can see we ended the year with more than $600 million of liquidity.

胡里奧，我認為我們可能會避免在今年這個時候談論土地支出的節奏。現在還有點早。顯然，我們已經有了我們的管道，我們討論了我們預計全年支出的情況。坦白說，我想告訴你，現金流的增加確實有幫助，但我們的資產負債表上有充足的流動性。您可以看到我們年底的流動資金超過 6 億美元。

So I think the other thing, Julio, we're looking at now, and you can kind of look at what we did in 2023, the spend in '23 was relatively backloaded to the fourth quarter. And we talked about that on previous calls. We spent time early in Q1 renegotiating land deals. And the impact of that was better terms and better deals in many cases, but it also pushed land spend largely into Q4, and you can see the acceleration that we had that shouldn't frankly be the case in 2024. We should have land spend more evenly distributed quarter-to-quarter. But I don't want to get too far into the details of that until we kind of go through the year.

所以我認為，胡里奧，我們現在正在考慮另一件事，你可以看看我們在 2023 年做了什麼，23 年的支出相對推遲到了第四季度。我們在之前的電話會議中討論過這一點。我們在第一季初期就花了時間重新談判土地交易。在許多情況下，其影響是更好的條款和更好的交易，但它也將土地支出很大程度上推到了第四季度，你可以看到我們的加速，坦白說，2024 年不應該出現這種情況。我們應該有土地支出各季度分佈更加均勻。但在我們度過這一年之前，我不想深入討論這方面的細節。

That's fair. And I appreciate the color you gave there for sure. And then just maybe if you could speak to -- you obviously have your expectation for community count ramp-up. Maybe can you speak to the confidence in that community count ramp you've outlined in that path for growth? And while certainly, mortgage rates will have an effect. Maybe just talk about how Beazer might be on a relative basis a little bit less affected than others?

這還算公平。我當然很欣賞你在那裡給的顏色。然後也許您可以談談 - 您顯然對社區數量的增加有期望。也許您能談談您對您在這條增長道路上概述的社區數量增長的信心嗎？當然，抵押貸款利率也會產生影響。也許只是談談 Beazer 如何在相對基礎上比其他人受到的影響要小一些？

Well, sure. I'll take a stab at it, and then Dave will fix it up, Julio. I think that during '24, we feel very confident about the ramp. Those are deals that are locked and loaded under development, and they're going to get to the market this year kind of regardless of where rates are. A lot of '25 is in a similar category. Clearly, we've got some discretion. If we decided that things were really tough we could slow up a little bit, but we've got the owned and controlled lot position to have multiple years of community count growth. So what we committed to last year, we're still on that track.

嗯，當然。我會嘗試一下，然後戴夫會修復它，胡里奧。我認為在 24 年期間，我們對坡道非常有信心。這些交易已鎖定並正在開發中，無論利率如何，它們都將在今年進入市場。 25 世紀的許多人屬於類似的類別。顯然，我們有一定的自由裁量權。如果我們認為事情真的很困難，我們可以放慢一點，但我們擁有擁有和控制的地段位置，可以實現多年的社區數量增長。因此，我們去年的承諾仍然在這條軌道上。

In terms of being in a little different position and look, sales this week, this month, this quarter, this 6 months has an influence on land activity, but you know there's a 2-year or so latency between buying a deal and activating a deal. And so those things are always going to be a little bit asynchronous.

就處於稍微不同的位置和外觀而言，本週、本月、本季、這 6 個月的銷售對土地活動有影響，但你知道購買交易和激活土地之間有 2 年左右的延遲。交易。所以這些事情總是會有點異步。

From a sales perspective, our view is pretty clearly that having mortgage choice and surprising performance and choice plans gives us ways of meeting the customer where they are from an affordability standpoint and trying to find ways that they can get into the home of their dreams as opposed to having to compromise. But that's a little different context than the cadence of community count growth because the community count growth for '24 decisions we made in '21, '22 and '23.

從銷售的角度來看，我們的觀點非常清楚，擁有抵押貸款選擇以及令人驚訝的表現和選擇計劃，使我們能夠從負擔能力的角度滿足客戶的需求，並試圖找到讓他們進入夢想之家的方法反對必須妥協。但這與社區計數成長的節奏略有不同，因為我們在 21 年、22 年和 23 年做出的 24 年決策的社區計數增長。

Next, we'll go to the line of Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

接下來，我們將介紹來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Congrats on all the progress this year would love to drill in first on just kind of some of the more recent commentary you had, which I appreciate the color there. So if I look at the guidance, and I fully appreciate you're extrapolating out maybe a tougher few weeks here. But 650 orders would be down about 35% sequentially. That's much more severe than you guys typically see in your fiscal first quarter.

恭喜今年取得的所有進展，我很想先深入了解您最近的一些評論，我很欣賞那裡的顏色。因此，如果我查看了該指南，我完全感謝您的推斷，這幾週可能會更加艱難。但 650 份訂單將比上一季減少約 35%。這比你們通常在第一財季看到的情況要嚴重得多。

And you mentioned the 100 basis point increase, I believe, in incentives for October. We've heard things from other builders kind of similar trajectory there. So how are you thinking about that interplay between kind of the current incentive environment, maybe what some of your competitors are doing versus the order side because that seems like it's a pretty significant drop-off. And my interpretation is maybe you guys are taking a bit of a backseat towards the calendar year-end companies that might be a bit more aggressive in the near term.

我相信您提到 10 月的激勵措施增加了 100 個基點。我們從其他建築商那裡聽到了類似的發展軌跡。那麼，您如何考慮當前激勵環境之間的相互作用，也許您的一些競爭對手相對於訂單方面正在做的事情，因為這似乎是一個相當顯著的下降。我的解釋是，也許你們對那些在短期內可能會更加激進的年終公司採取了一些退居二線的做法。

Well, there's a lot in that question, Alan. And you're right on just about every front. For sure, this is a strange time of year. Dealing with November and December year-end companies that have big spec positions, and they're trying to make not just sales but closings in a relatively compressed period of time. And we typically lay a little bit lower during what is our fiscal first quarter and try not to get caught up in it. So that is the case, but that's the case every year. It is the case this year.

嗯，這個問題有很多內容，艾倫。你幾乎在每個方面都是正確的。當然，這是一年中的一個奇怪的時刻。與擁有大量規格頭寸的 11 月和 12 月年末公司打交道，他們不僅試圖在相對壓縮的時間內完成銷售，而且還試圖完成結帳。我們通常會在第一財季降低一點利率，並盡量不陷入其中。事實就是如此，但每年都是如此。今年就是這樣。

I think it's also true that there's just been so much volatility in mortgage rates in the last 60 days, I mean that run up to 8 and then the easing, there's no question that run up to 8 affected traffic and it affected sales. I mena October into the early part of November wasn't great.

我認為過去 60 天抵押貸款利率的波動確實如此之大，我的意思是上升到 8，然後寬鬆，毫無疑問，上升到 8 影響了流量，也影響了銷售。我認為十月到十一月初的情況不太好。

But it's also true that what's happened in the last 10 days has definitely stimulated a level of activity that we weren't seeing 3 or 4 weeks ago. So we find ourselves at sort of an awkward point for the earnings call because I could feel really good about 7 days where I could look at the last month or 2 and say, well, it's sort of mixed or as you did, you can look at it over years and look at, well, what's the normal sort of progression. So I think we've given a fairly cautious estimate of where sales may land in the first quarter.

但過去 10 天發生的事情確實刺激了我們 3、4 週前沒有看到的活動量。因此，我們發現自己在財報電話會議上處於一個尷尬的境地，因為我可以在7 天的時間裡感覺非常好，我可以查看上個月或兩個月的情況，然後說，好吧，這有點好壞參半，或者就像你所做的那樣，你可以看看多年來，看看什麼是正常的進展。因此，我認為我們對第一季的銷售情況進行了相當謹慎的估計。

And it's influenced a little bit by what you said. I don't think we're in a place where we feel like we have to go chase unit activity right now. We've got compressing cycle times working in our favor. We've got a rock-solid balance sheet. We've got a lot of runway left in the fiscal year. So this just doesn't feel like a window where we needed to win the day, win the week, in order to set ourselves up for the year.

而且有點受你所說的影響。我不認為我們現在必須去追逐單位活動。壓縮週期時間對我們有利。我們擁有堅如磐石的資產負債表。本財年我們還有很長的路要走。因此，這感覺不像是我們需要贏得這一天、贏得一週的機會，以便為今年做好準備。

So I've touched on 3 or 4 different ideas there, but I mean each of them sort of come back to definitely not giving a guide on orders at super ambitious. We're giving a guide that's very rooted in some of the tougher weeks of the last 2 months.

因此，我在那裡談到了 3 或 4 個不同的想法，但我的意思是，它們中的每一個都肯定不會為超級雄心勃勃的訂單提供指導。我們提供的指南非常植根於過去兩個月中最艱難的幾週。

You answered every part of my multipart question, Allan. Second -- second topic would love to discuss our mortgage rate buy-downs. You've talked a lot about the mortgage choice program that you guys have. there's a lot of focus being spent on mortgage rate buy-downs right now across the industry, there are other homebuilders devoted a lot of time on their calls talking to their national programs. They're offering what the exact rate is. And I know your situation is different. So is there any way for you to give us a little bit of data or insight into kind of what the average rate your buyer actually is getting based on the incentives you're providing or what percentage of your buyers actually are choosing to put the dollars into a rate buydown just to kind of give us a little bit of a comparison point to where you guys stack up versus the rest of the industry?

你回答了我的多部分問題的每個部分，艾倫。第二－第二個主題很想討論我們的房貸利率下調。你們已經談論了很多你們的抵押貸款選擇計劃。目前整個行業都在關注抵押貸款利率的下調，還有其他房屋建築商花了很多時間在電話中討論他們的國家計劃。他們提供的是確切的價格。我知道你的情況有所不同。那麼，您是否可以透過任何方式向我們提供一些數據或深入了解您的買家根據您提供的激勵措施實際獲得的平均費率，或者您的買家實際選擇投入資金的比例是多少進行利率下調只是為了給我們一些比較點，讓我們看看你們與業界其他公司的情況如何？

Yes. I can give you a little bit of color. I can't give you the same granular data because obviously, we don't have a mortgage company. But couple of interesting things, I think.

是的。我可以給你一點顏色。我無法向您提供相同的詳細數據，因為顯然我們沒有抵押貸款公司。但我認為有一些有趣的事情。

First of all, we are obviously well aware that many competitors offer on a finite number of home for a short period of time, a specific incentive in their mortgage rate. We tend to operate a little bit differently, which is the community in the home. Now let's talk to 2 or 3 of our choice lenders. And what's fascinating is talking to our sales consultants and actually personally talking to some of our buyers, they go through a fairly elaborate and it's maybe an elongated sales cycle, but they go through a long process of really thinking about, "Hey, do I want the 321, do I want a permanent buy down? How do I feel about where rates are going to be in the future? Importantly, can I qualify at the fully indexed rate. So a temporary buydown is really the focus, and I want to save the cash or am I more interested in the permanent?"

首先，我們顯然很清楚，許多競爭對手在短時間內提供有限數量的房屋，這是他們抵押貸款利率的具體激勵措施。我們的運作方式往往略有不同，這就是家庭中的社區。現在讓我們與我們選擇的兩到三個貸款人交談。有趣的是與我們的銷售顧問交談，實際上是親自與我們的一些買家交談，他們經歷了一個相當複雜的過程，這可能是一個漫長的銷售週期，但他們經歷了一個漫長的過程，真正思考，「嘿，我可以嗎？」想要321，我想要永久買進嗎？我對未來利率的感覺如何？重要的是，我是否有資格獲得完全指數化利率。所以暫時買進確實是焦點，我想要是為了省錢還是我對永久更感興趣？”

And I think seeing different programs and different offerings from different lenders, and each lender knows that other lenders are also talking to that buyer, it's interesting. It isn't as simple as, hey, we have an X percent rate on this home for that price. It is more dynamic than that. But what ends up happening as a result is I think we get customers feeling a little bit more comfortable that they're not getting jammed and they're not missing something. It's not like, gosh, there was an obvious trick to the whole thing that we didn't understand because they're getting that transparency across multiple lenders.

我認為看到不同的貸款人提供不同的計劃和不同的產品，並且每個貸款人都知道其他貸款人也在與該買家交談，這很有趣。這並不簡單，嘿，我們對這個價格的房子有 X% 的利率。它比那更有活力。但最終發生的結果是，我認為我們讓客戶感覺更舒服一點，他們不會被堵塞，也不會錯過任何東西。這並不是說，天哪，整個事情有一個我們不理解的明顯技巧，因為他們在多個貸方之間獲得了透明度。

I can tell you that more of our buyers opt for permanent buy-downs than temporary buy-downs a larger share due. But I can also tell you that in that October time period as rates pushed up 2 and through 8, we actually saw that start to move more towards the temporary buy-downs from which I can surmise that buyers had a more higher degree of confidence that this is a little bit of a -- if not a top, it's a high watermark or a higher watermark and there's a higher probability. I'm going to be able to refinance this rate. And so the temporary makes more sense than the permanent buy-down.

我可以告訴你，更多的買家選擇永久買斷，而不是臨時買斷更大的份額。但我也可以告訴你，在 10 月期間，隨著利率上漲 2 至 8，我們實際上看到開始更多地轉向臨時買入，從中我可以推測買家對這有點像——如果不是頂部，那就是高水位線或更高的水位線，機率更高。我將能夠以這個利率進行再融資。因此，暫時的購買比永久的購買更有意義。

But I mean that's kind of the type of thing I can tell you, getting into specific rates. I mean, for sure, I mean, we can -- we've got rate sheets from all of our vendors and we can talk about what a quarter point on a permanent buy-down relates to. But then what's the credit characteristic of that buyer, what's the loan to value and there's just too many variables to get into it at that granular level.

但我的意思是，這就是我可以告訴你的事情，進入具體的利率。我的意思是，當然，我的意思是，我們可以——我們已經得到了所有供應商的價目表，我們可以討論永久購買的四分之一個百分點的相關性。但是，該買家的信用特徵是什麼，貸款價值是多少，而且有太多的變數無法在這個粒度級別上進行研究。

I will just tell you, I'm so happy every day to know that every one of our buyers is seeing multiple proposals and they go back and forth. "hey, show me your 321s. " All right, show me your 1 by 3. Show me your 1 by 2s, Show me what your permanent would be. Well, hey, I got a better permanent over here. Can you match this permanent? That dynamic is awesome in an environment like this.

我只想告訴你，我每天都很高興知道我們的每一位買家都看到了多個提案並且他們來來回回。 「嘿，給我看看你的 321。」 好吧，給我看看你的 1 x 3。給我看看你的 1 x 2，讓我看看你的永久物是什麼。嗯，嘿，我在這裡得到了更好的永久頭髮。你能匹配這個永久嗎？在這樣的環境中，這種動力非常棒。

Next, we'll go to the line of Alex Rygiel from B. Riley.

接下來，我們將進入 B. Riley 的 Alex Rygiel 系列。

Your ASPs have been trending right around this 510 level. I appreciate the thoughts about the first quarter. But as we look beyond that, is there any thoughts or commentary that you can add to directionally where that ASP could go a little bit further out based upon the new communities that you're bringing on and whether or not there could be a mix shift there?

你們的 ASP 一直在 510 水平附近發展。我很欣賞對第一季的想法。但是，當我們超越這一點時，您是否可以根據您引入的新社區以及是否可能發生混合轉變，在 ASP 可以進一步發展的方向上添加任何想法或評論那裡？

Alex, it's Dave. I don't really want to go beyond 2024 and the kind of initial conversation that we've had on that. But I remind you, in the prepared remarks, we talked about kind of a full year ASP. And frankly, that's down from where it is right now, around $500,000. Really, a lot of that is kind of choices we're making, right? It's what we're offering, it's community choice, it's product choice. It's included features. So it's not [a safe] assumption as you would imagine, on price declines or lower prices, but rather choices we're making to address affordability and still keep value high for the buyer.

亞歷克斯，這是戴夫。我真的不想超越 2024 年以及我們就此進行的初步對話。但我提醒您，在準備好的發言中，我們討論了全年的 ASP。坦白說，這比現在的水平有所下降，約為 50 萬美元。真的，很多都是我們正在做出的選擇，對吧？這就是我們所提供的，這是社區的選擇，這是產品的選擇。它所包含的功能。因此，這並不是您想像的關於價格下跌或更低價格的[安全]假設，而是我們為解決負擔能力而做出的選擇，同時仍然為買家保持高價值。

That's very helpful. And then you talked about in the past some certain geographies that maybe you had an interest in accelerating growth in. I think Florida might have been one of the states. Can you give us a little bit of an update there?

這非常有幫助。然後你過去談到了一些你可能對加速成長感興趣的某些地區。我認為佛羅裡達州可能是其中之一。您能為我們提供一些最新情況嗎？

Sure. First of all, we love our footprint. We can grow in every single market that we're in. I don't think people love it when I say dumb taxes, but I say it anyway. We paid them in a number of places. And so now it's the point to benefit from the learnings that we've had along the way. And there's no question. We want to be where the jobs are. jobs are in Florida, jobs are in Atlanta, jobs are in the Carolina, jobs are in Nashville, jobs are in Indie. I mean, those are places that we see great growth opportunities.

當然。首先，我們熱愛我們的足跡。我們可以在我們所處的每個市場中成長。我認為人們不喜歡我說愚蠢的稅收，但我還是這麼說。我們在很多地方向他們付款。因此，現在的重點是從我們一路走來的經驗教訓中受益。毫無疑問。我們希望成為有工作機會的地方。工作在佛羅裡達州，工作在亞特蘭大，工作在卡羅來納州，工作在納什維爾，工作在獨立。我的意思是，我們在這些地方看到了巨大的成長機會。

And then, of course, the West has been very good to us. Phoenix is obviously a little bit more challenging. It's a tough land market. There are water issues. I don't think that's going to be a big growth engine. I do think our business will become a bit bigger there. But I think the larger amount of growth for us is going to be in Texas, our recently acquired San Antonio business will play a big role in that, Florida and up the East Coast.

當然，西方對我們也很好。鳳凰城顯然更具挑戰性。這是一個艱難的土地市場。有水的問題。我認為這不會成為一個巨大的成長引擎。我確實認為我們的業務在那裡會變得更大一些。但我認為我們最大的成長將在德克薩斯州，我們最近收購的聖安東尼奧業務將在佛羅裡達州和東海岸發揮重要作用。

(Operator Instructions) And currently, our last question in queue is from Jay McCanless from Wedbush.

（操作員說明）目前，我們隊列中的最後一個問題來自 Wedbush 的 Jay McCanless。

So when I look at the fiscal '24 guidance on Page 14, it looks like the adjusted gross margin range, what we're thinking it's going to be down anywhere from 50 to 110 basis points versus what you put up in fiscal '23. I guess, could you talk about, one, what type of mortgage rate assumptions are built into that? And then maybe two, is that a function of some of the discounting and price cuts that we're seeing from some of your competitors right now?

因此，當我查看第 14 頁的 24 財年指引時，我們認為調整後的毛利率範圍與 23 財年的預期相比將下降 50 到 110 個基點。我想，您能談談其中包含哪種類型的抵押貸款利率假設嗎？然後也許有兩個，這是我們現在從你們的一些競爭對手那裡看到的一些折扣和降價的結果嗎？

So a few things going on there, Jay, and I think Dave and I both have things to say. The first thing is it assumes -- and in Dave's comments made this point, we assume that rates are roughly in the range where they are now, call it, 0.25% point, 0.38% of a point either way. We don't assume that they're following. We don't assume that they're going to be sustainably over 8%. So that's kind of the framing for how we thought about our full year guidance.

傑伊，這裡發生了一些事情，我想戴夫和我都有話要說。首先，它假設——在戴夫的評論中提出了這一點，我們假設利率大致在現在的範圍內，無論哪種方式，都可以稱之為 0.25% 點或 0.38% 點。我們不認為他們正在跟隨。我們認為他們不會持續超過 8%。這就是我們如何思考全年指導的框架。

If you think about the margin, it's actually got less to do with discounting and it has more to do with mix shift. I think either Dave or I said in our comments, we opened 60 communities in 2023. We're going to open a bunch of communities in '24. So the mix of communities that we have generating closings in '24 is going to be tilted to a very young vintage. And it's been our experience, and I think you can channel check this across the industry.

如果你考慮一下利潤，它實際上與折扣關係不大，而與混合轉變關係更大。我想戴夫或我在評論中說過，我們在 2023 年開設了 60 個社區。我們將在 24 年開設一堆社區。因此，我們在 24 年關閉的社區組合將傾向於非常年輕的年份。這是我們的經驗，我認為你可以在整個行業中進行通路檢查。

You're typically not getting your highest gross margins out of the community in the first 3, 6, 9 months. So I think that's a significant factor in the margin guide. It does reflect a little bit of the increase that we've had since June in the financing cost, but it's not like we've leaned into that and assume that, that gets worse. It's more kind of a normalized at the current level of mortgage rate and it's a mix issue are really driven by that mix of new communities.

您通常不會在前 3、6、9 個月內從社區中獲得最高的毛利率。所以我認為這是保證金指南中的一個重要因素。它確實反映了自 6 月以來我們的融資成本有所增加，但我們並沒有傾向於這一點並假設情況會變得更糟。在當前的抵押貸款利率水平上，這更像是一種正常化，這是一個混合問題，實際上是由新社區的混合驅動的。

And I have to say, I'm really excited to have a bunch of new communities that were tied up, renegotiated, brought to the market in a much different interest rate environment than when they were originally envisioned, able to generate margins that are above our 10-year average. Like that's a pretty good place to be.

我必須說，我真的很高興有一群新的社區被捆綁起來，重新談判，在與最初設想的利率環境截然不同的環境中進入市場，能夠產生高於預期的利潤率我們10 年的平均水平。好像那是一個非常好的地方。

Absolutely. I guess the second question I had, for homes that you're selling now that still need to get finished or even just a straight up to be built. I guess what's the range of delivery times that you're giving out now? And I know you said cycle times are down 2 months in the fourth quarter, I guess, from what you're selling now, where do those cycle times compared to where they were pre-COVID?

絕對地。我想我的第二個問題是，對於你現在出售的房屋，仍然需要完工，甚至只是直接建造。我想你們現在給的交貨時間範圍是多少？我知道你說過第四季度的周期時間縮短了 2 個月，我猜，從你現在銷售的產品來看，這些週期時間與新冠疫情之前相比在哪裡？

We're still probably 30 days wide of the pre-COVID, and I'd like to get about half of that back this year. I don't know that we'll get it all back because I think there's some structural delays built into the municipal processes. They haven't staffed back up. The flip side is there's not a lot of multifamily or commercial start activity.

距離新冠疫情爆發前的時間可能還剩 30 天，我希望今年能恢復到一半左右。我不知道我們能否全部收回，因為我認為市政流程中存在一些結構性延誤。他們還沒有補充人員。另一方面是沒有太多的多戶住宅或商業啟動活動。

So I think on the trade side, number of crews, quality of crews, I think that's where the opportunity is. But targeting to get back at least a couple of weeks this year.

所以我認為在貿易方面，船員的數量、船員的質量，我認為這就是機會所在。但今年的目標是至少回歸幾週。

And our final question in queue comes from Alex Barron from Housing Research Center.

我們隊列中的最後一個問題來自住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫（Alex Barron）。

Yes, I wanted to ask about the DTA and expected tax rate. Maybe Dave, do you still expect it will take a few more years before you completely use this up? In other words, I'm trying to figure out if the tax rate is going to stay low for another 2, 3 years before it resets back up.

是的，我想詢問有關 DTA 和預期稅率的資訊。也許戴夫，你還認為你還需要幾年的時間才能完全用完它嗎？換句話說，我想弄清楚稅率是否會再維持低水準2、3年，然後才會重新恢復。

Alex, good question. We do have a slide in the presentation in the appendix that kind of go over GAAP tax expectations and cash tax payments for some detail. But I would tell you yes, we think we're going to be using our tax benefits for '24, '25 and potentially into '26. And then what you'll see as you get into we'll start to use the tax benefits that we're generating for energy efficiency tax credits as we're closing the home. So it will be much more simultaneous like most builders.

亞歷克斯，好問題。我們在附錄的簡報中確實有一張幻燈片，其中介紹了 GAAP 稅收預期和現金稅支付的一些細節。但我想告訴你，是的，我們認為我們將在 24 年、25 年以及可能在 26 年利用我們的稅收優惠。然後，當您進入時，您將看到我們將開始使用我們在關閉房屋時為能源效率稅收抵免而產生的稅收優惠。所以它會像大多數建築商一樣同時進行。

So yes, I think we'll have a lower tax rate. We talked about the midpoint of the 15% to 20% range in '24. And quite frankly, I think from a statutory perspective on an ongoing basis, we'll be below kind of normal factory levels because we're generating tax credits and using them in '26 kind of real time.

所以是的，我認為我們的稅率會更低。我們討論過 24 年 15% 到 20% 範圍的中點。坦白說，我認為從持續的法定角度來看，我們將低於正常工廠水平，因為我們正在產生稅收抵免並以“26”實時方式使用它們。

Got it. And then I was hoping you could comment on thoughts around share buybacks given your stock is still trading below 1x book.

知道了。然後，鑑於您的股票交易價格仍低於帳面價值的 1 倍，我希望您能評論一下有關股票回購的想法。

Absolutely, Jay. I would tell you, and we've kind of talked about this before, we're confident in our balanced growth strategy and the ability to generate sufficient liquidity to really support our growth aspirations and continue to delever our balance sheet. As it relates to share repurchase, I would tell you, share repurchases are clearly an attractive use of capital depending on share price. But right now, our highest priority is clearly growth and debt repurchasing.

絕對是，傑伊。我想告訴你，我們之前已經討論過這一點，我們對我們的平衡成長策略以及產生足夠流動性的能力充滿信心，以真正支持我們的成長願望並繼續去槓桿化我們的資產負債表。由於它與股票回購有關，我想告訴你，股票回購顯然是一種有吸引力的資本用途，這取決於股價。但目前，我們的首要任務顯然是成長和債務回購。

And currently, I'm showing no other questions in queue.

目前，我在隊列中沒有顯示其他問題。

Okay. I want to thank everybody for joining us on our fiscal fourth quarter call, and look forward to talking to everybody in 3 months on our first quarter call. Thank you very much for your time this evening.

好的。我要感謝大家參加我們的第四財季電話會議，並期待在 3 個月後的第一季電話會議上與大家交談。非常感謝您今晚抽出時間。

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect your line, and enjoy the rest of your day.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。您可以斷開線路，享受剩下的一天。