Beazer Homes USA Inc (BZH) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes Earnings Conference Call for the Fiscal Third Quarter ended June 30, 2023. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website later today. In addition, presentation slides intended to accompany this call are available within the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.beazer.com.

下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的第三財季收益電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音，今天晚些時候將在公司網站上提供重播。此外，本次電話會議的演示幻燈片可在公司網站 www.beazer.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。

At this point, I will turn the call over to David Goldberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在，我將把電話轉給高級副總裁兼首席財務官大衛·戈德伯格。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes conference call discussing our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Beazer Homes 電話會議，討論我們 2023 財年第三季度的業績。

Before we begin, you should be aware that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors described in our SEC filings, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date the statement is made. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is simply not possible to predict all such factors.

在我們開始之前，您應該知道，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。此類聲明涉及我們向 SEC 文件中描述的已知和未知風險、不確定性和其他因素，這可能導致實際結果與我們的預測存在重大差異。任何前瞻性聲明僅代表聲明發布之日的情況。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。新的因素不斷出現，並且根本不可能預測所有這些因素。

Joining me is Allan Merrill, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Today, Allan will discuss highlights from our third quarter, the current environment for new home sales and an update on our strategy and the goals we have for the future. I'll provide details on the third quarter, expectations for future results, updates on our cycle times and cost reduction initiatives and end with a look at our balance sheet. We will conclude with the wrap-up by Allan. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions during the time remaining.

與我一起出席的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官艾倫·梅里爾 (Allan Merrill)。今天，艾倫將討論我們第三季度的亮點、當前新屋銷售環境以及我們的戰略更新和未來目標。我將提供有關第三季度的詳細信息、對未來業績的預期、我們的周期時間和成本削減計劃的最新情況，並最後查看我們的資產負債表。我們將以艾倫的總結結束。在我們準備好發言後，我們將在剩餘時間內回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Allan.

我現在將把電話轉給艾倫。

Thank you, Dave, and thank you for joining us this afternoon. We had a very productive third quarter, highlighted by continued strength in new home orders and further recovery in our construction cycle times. These factors and the great work of our team allowed us to exceed the expectations we outlined in April.

謝謝你，戴夫，也感謝你今天下午加入我們。我們的第三季度非常富有成效，新屋訂單的持續強勁和建築週期的進一步復甦凸顯了這一點。這些因素以及我們團隊的出色工作使我們超出了四月份提出的預期。

On new home orders, we generated a pace of 3.2 homes per community per month, up nearly 30% from the prior year. The resurgence in demand we experienced starting in January continued through the spring with buyers interested in both to-be-built and move-in ready homes.

在新房訂單方面，我們每個社區每月交付 3.2 套住房，比上年增長近 30%。我們從一月份開始經歷的需求復蘇持續到了整個春季，買家對待建房屋和可入住的現成房屋都感興趣。

Closings exceeded our expectations, both from improvements in cycle times and higher-than-anticipated sales of move-in ready homes. Homebuilding gross margins were also better than anticipated as we needed fewer incentives to secure our backlog and to make new sales. Higher closings and gross margins allowed us to generate adjusted EBITDA of nearly $73 million and net income of just under $44 million.

成交量超出了我們的預期，這既是因為周期時間的改善，也是因為入住現成房屋的銷售量高於預期。住宅建築毛利率也好於預期，因為我們需要更少的激勵措施來確保積壓訂單和進行新銷售。較高的成交額和毛利率使我們能夠產生近 7300 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 和略低於 4400 萬美元的淨利潤。

From a balance sheet perspective, we celebrated yet another important milestone with shareholders' equity exceeding $1 billion or nearly $34 per share. Just over a year ago, mortgage rates began to move sharply higher, pushing mortgage payments as a percentage of income, substantially above their long-term average. Predictably, this lack of affordability led to a big drop in new and used home sales that persisted through the end of 2022.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們慶祝了又一個重要的里程碑，股東權益超過 10 億美元，即每股近 34 美元。就在一年多前，抵押貸款利率開始大幅上升，導致抵押貸款付款佔收入的比例大大高於長期平均水平。可以預見的是，這種負擔能力的缺乏導致新房和二手房銷售大幅下降，並持續到 2022 年底。

During this time period, home prices reversed direction and wage growth continued, which slightly improved the picture. Then in January, demand returned to more normal levels, even though affordability was still strained. On a macro level, we attribute this strength to 2 primary factors. First, there are both long-term and short-term housing deficits. In prior calls, we have noted the structural shortage of housing, potentially as great as 4 million homes. I think of this as a long-term deficit and believe it will underpin demand for new homes for many years. But right now, we're seeing a different deficit and that's a shortage of used homes listed for sale. While this is likely more of a short-term issue, homeowners may remain reluctant to list their home for sale until interest rates are substantially lower.

在此期間，房價逆轉，工資持續增長，使情況略有改善。然後到一月份，需求恢復到更正常的水平，儘管負擔能力仍然緊張。在宏觀層面上，我們將這種優勢歸因於兩個主要因素。首先，存在長期和短期住房赤字。在之前的電話會議中，我們注意到住房的結構性短缺，可能多達 400 萬套住房。我認為這是一項長期赤字，並相信它將在多年內支撐新房的需求。但現在，我們看到了不同的赤字，那就是掛牌出售的二手房短缺。雖然這可能更多地是一個短期問題，但房主可能仍然不願意將房屋掛牌出售，直到利率大幅降低。

Second, the overall economy remains quite strong. Unemployment levels remain very low with job growth and wage gains continuing through the quarter. Over time, one of the most reliable indicators of housing demand has been employment and wage conditions. Both are in a pretty good place right now. But we're not just relying on these macro dynamics to address affordability. As a company, we have positioned ourselves to compete in an affordability challenged environment. We are invested in markets with demonstrated new home demand. We have targeted the largest home buyer segments, and we've developed 3 valuable differentiators: mortgage choice, surprising performance and choice plans. Taken together, these efforts allow us to deliver extraordinary value at an affordable price to new homebuyers.

二是經濟總體保持強勁。失業率水平仍然很低，整個季度就業增長和工資持續增長。隨著時間的推移，住房需求最可靠的指標之一是就業和工資條件。兩者現在都處於一個非常好的位置。但我們不僅僅依靠這些宏觀動態來解決負擔能力問題。作為一家公司，我們已將自己定位為在承受能力面臨挑戰的環境中競爭。我們投資於具有明顯新房需求的市場。我們瞄準了最大的購房者群體，並開發了 3 個有價值的差異化因素：抵押貸款選擇、令人驚訝的表現和選擇計劃。總而言之，這些努力使我們能夠以實惠的價格為新購房者提供非凡的價值。

For shareholders, we remain committed to a long-term strategy we call balanced growth. It is characterized by growing profitability, improving balance sheet efficiency and generating returns above our cost of capital. We're proud of the progress we've made so far, and we expect to do even more in the years ahead.

對於股東而言，我們仍然致力於所謂平衡增長的長期戰略。它的特點是盈利能力不斷提高，資產負債表效率提高，並產生高於資本成本的回報。我們對迄今為止所取得的進展感到自豪，並期望在未來幾年取得更多進展。

Last quarter, we provided a road map for our longer-term goals, specifically those related to growth, leverage and the energy efficiency of our homes. As it relates to our growth, we expect to have more than 200 active communities by the end of 2026, with excellent visibility into year-over-year growth in each quarter for at least the next 18 months. As it relates to our balance sheet, we expect to reduce our net debt to net cap ratio to below 30% over the next 3 years, a measured pace that will allow us plenty of flexibility to invest in our business. And finally, as it relates to the homes we built, by the end of 2025, we expect that every home we start will meet the Department of Energy's Zero Energy Ready standard. In December of 2020, we became the first and still today the only public builder to commit to achieve that standard. In Q3, 11% of our starts were Zero Energy Ready and included homes in every one of our divisions. Overall, I'm very proud of what we were able to accomplish in the third quarter, and I'm excited about where we're going.

上季度，我們為長期目標提供了路線圖，特別是與增長、槓桿率和家庭能源效率相關的目標。由於這與我們的增長相關，我們預計到 2026 年底將擁有超過 200 個活躍社區，並且至少在未來 18 個月內每個季度的同比增長都具有良好的可見性。由於這與我們的資產負債表相關，我們預計在未來 3 年內將淨債務與淨上限比率降至 30% 以下，這一謹慎的步伐將使我們能夠靈活地投資於我們的業務。最後，由於這與我們建造的房屋有關，到 2025 年底，我們預計我們建造的每棟房屋都將符合能源部的零能耗標準。 2020 年 12 月，我們成為第一家、至今仍然是唯一一家致力於實現該標準的公共建築商。在第三季度，我們的開工項目中有 11% 是零能耗就緒的，其中包括我們每個部門的住宅。總的來說，我對我們在第三季度取得的成就感到非常自豪，並且對我們的目標感到興奮。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Allan. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2023, we closed 1,117 new homes, generating homebuilding revenue of $570 million with an average sales price of about $511,000. Gross margin, excluding amortized interest, impairments and abandonments, was 23.4%. As Allan mentioned, our margin came in higher than anticipated, which was the result of lower construction costs and better-than-anticipated profitability on homes we sold and closed during the quarter.

謝謝，艾倫。 2023 財年第三季度，我們關閉了 1,117 套新房，住宅建築收入為 5.7 億美元，平均售價約為 511,000 美元。毛利率（不包括攤銷利息、減值和廢棄）為 23.4%。正如艾倫提到的，我們的利潤率高於預期，這是由於建築成本較低以及我們在本季度出售和關閉的房屋的盈利能力好於預期的結果。

SG&A as a percentage of total revenue was 11.5% for the quarter, down 30 basis points year-over-year as we benefited from improved leverage. Taken together, higher closings and improved margin led to adjusted EBITDA of $72.8 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue was 3.1%. Our GAAP tax expense was $6.2 million for an effective tax rate of 12.5%, as we realized approximately $5.7 million of energy efficiency tax credits related to closings in both the current quarter and from prior years. Net income was $43.8 million or $1.42 per share.

本季度 SG&A 佔總收入的百分比為 11.5%，同比下降 30 個基點，因為我們受益於槓桿率的改善。總而言之，較高的成交額和提高的利潤率使調整後的 EBITDA 達到 7,280 萬美元。利息攤銷佔住宅建築收入的百分比為 3.1%。我們的 GAAP 稅收支出為 620 萬美元，有效稅率為 12.5%，因為我們實現了與本季度和往年結賬相關的約 570 萬美元的能源效率稅收抵免。淨利潤為 4,380 萬美元，即每股 1.42 美元。

Looking forward to the fiscal fourth quarter, we're providing the following expectations. We anticipate our sales pace to be approximately 2.7 homes per community per month or up about 40% compared to the prior year. Ending active community count is expected to be up about 10% year-over-year. We expect to close roughly 1,200 homes, reflecting a backlog conversion ratio exceeding 60%, up more than 8 points versus the same period last year. Our average sales price should be around $520,000. We expect gross margin, excluding interest, to be roughly 23%.

展望第四財季，我們提出以下預期。我們預計每個社區每月的銷售速度約為 2.7 套，比上一年增長約 40%。最終活躍社區數量預計將同比增長約 10%。我們預計將關閉約 1,200 套房屋，積壓轉化率超過 60%，比去年同期上升 8 個百分點以上。我們的平均售價應該在 520,000 美元左右。我們預計扣除利息後的毛利率約為 23%。

Our absolute dollars spent on SG&A should be relatively flat versus the same quarter last year. We expect this to result in adjusted EBITDA of approximately $75 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue should be in the low 3s and our effective tax rate should be below 14% as we continue to benefit from our energy efficiency tax credits. This should lead to diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.25 to $1.50. Finally, we expect land spend to be up sequentially and year-over-year.

我們在銷售、管理和行政費用上的絕對金額與去年同期相比應該相對持平。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 約為 7500 萬美元。隨著我們繼續受益於能源效率稅收抵免，利息攤銷佔住宅建築收入的百分比應在 3 左右，我們的有效稅率應低於 14%。這將導致每股攤薄收益在 1.25 美元至 1.50 美元之間。最後，我們預計土地支出將環比和同比增長。

With our performance in the fiscal third quarter, we now expect to generate more than $250 million of EBITDA and diluted earnings per share in excess of $4.60 for fiscal year 2023. Our book value should top $35 a share, and our net debt to net capitalization is likely to fall below 40%.

根據我們第三財季的業績，我們現在預計 2023 財年的 EBITDA 將超過 2.5 億美元，攤薄後每股收益將超過 4.60 美元。我們的每股賬面價值將超過 35 美元，我們的淨債務與淨資本之比將超過很可能會跌破40%。

While we don't plan to provide specific metrics for our fiscal year 2024 expectations until next quarter, we can share some directional visibility at this time. In FY '24, we expect healthy community count growth to lead to increases in closings, revenue, profitability and book value per share, even as we anticipate full year ASPs to be around $500,000 from a more affordable mix of communities.

雖然我們不打算在下個季度之前提供 2024 財年預期的具體指標，但我們此時可以分享一些方向性的信息。在 24 財年，我們預計健康的社區數量增長將導致成交量、收入、盈利能力和每股賬面價值的增加，儘管我們預計全年平均售價將來自更實惠的社區組合，約為 500,000 美元。

Relative to our other multiyear goals, we expect improvement in our leverage ratio and a sizable increase in the percentage of our starts that meet the Zero Energy Ready standard.

相對於我們的其他多年目標，我們預計槓桿率將有所改善，並且滿足零能耗就緒標準的啟動百分比將大幅增加。

As we enter the final quarter of our fiscal year, I want to update you on the operational objectives we set forth back in October. In prior calls, we've highlighted the improvements we've generated in cycle times on new starts, which has allowed us to consistently push our cutoff date for homes that can close within the fiscal year. In the third quarter, these improvements materialized in the cycle times of our closings which were down about 40 days versus last quarter. Looking forward, we remain focused on getting cycle times back to where they were before COVID disruptions.

隨著我們進入本財年的最後一個季度，我想向您介紹我們在 10 月份制定的運營目標的最新情況。在之前的電話會議中，我們強調了我們在新開工週期時間方面取得的進步，這使我們能夠持續推遲可在本財年內關閉的房屋的截止日期。在第三季度，這些改進在我們的結賬週期中實現，與上季度相比縮短了約 40 天。展望未來，我們仍然致力於將周期時間恢復到新冠疫情干擾之前的水平。

On the cost savings side, it is more of a mixed picture. While we've been pleased with the reduction in lumber costs, our expectations for significant savings from other categories have been tempered somewhat. That's because the stronger sales and pricing environment has caused housing starts to bounce back this spring. The good news is that some of the most constrained product categories, like appliances and garage doors, are back to normal delivery times which removes some of the cost risk we faced over the past several years.

在節省成本方面，情況更是喜憂參半。雖然我們對木材成本的降低感到滿意，但我們對其他類別大幅節省的預期有所減弱。這是因為更強勁的銷售和定價環境導致今年春季新屋開工量反彈。好消息是，一些最受限的產品類別（例如電器和車庫門）已恢復正常交貨時間，這消除了我們過去幾年面臨的一些成本風險。

We have heard from investors that they don't fully understand our tax position, and that's understandable because things like deferred tax assets and energy efficiency tax credits are not intuitive. So today, we're going to provide a framework that we believe will simplify estimating our future GAAP and cash taxes. Because the homes we build meet stringent energy efficiency criteria, we are eligible to claim energy efficiency tax credits. These credits reduce our GAAP tax rate in the period they are claimed even if they are not used from a cash perspective in that year.

我們從投資者那裡聽說，他們並不完全了解我們的稅收狀況，這是可以理解的，因為遞延稅資產和能源效率稅收抵免等事情並不直觀。因此，今天，我們將提供一個框架，我們相信該框架將簡化對未來 GAAP 和現金稅的估計。由於我們建造的房屋符合嚴格的能源效率標準，因此我們有資格申請能源效率稅收抵免。這些抵免額會降低我們在申請期間的 GAAP 稅率，即使當年沒有從現金角度使用它們。

Today, all of our homes meet the ENERGY STAR standard and a growing percentage meet the Zero Energy Ready standard. Based on our expectations for claiming credits from prior years as well as credits earned from homes that closed this year, we expect our effective annual GAAP tax rate to be below 15% in fiscal year 2023. This will rise to somewhere between 15% and 20% moving forward once we have fully claimed the credits related to prior years.

如今，我們所有的房屋都符合能源之星標準，並且越來越多的房屋符合零能耗標準。根據我們對前幾年申請抵免以及從今年關閉的房屋獲得的抵免的預期，我們預計 2023 財年的有效年度 GAAP 稅率將低於 15%。這一數字將升至 15% 至 20% 之間一旦我們完全索取了與往年相關的積分，就繼續前進％。

From a cash perspective, we don't expect to pay cash taxes for fiscal '23, fiscal '24 and a portion of fiscal '25 as we utilize our NOLs, which are included in our deferred tax assets, and then apply the energy efficiency tax credits we have accumulated from prior years, which are also included in our deferred tax assets. As we move into fiscal 2026 and beyond, our cash tax rate should align with our GAAP rate as newly earned energy efficiency tax credits are utilized in the year they are generated.

從現金角度來看，我們預計不會為 23 財年、24 財年和 25 財年的一部分支付現金稅，因為我們利用 NOL（包含在我們的遞延稅資產中），然後應用能源效率我們從往年積累的稅收抵免也包含在我們的遞延稅資產中。隨著我們進入 2026 財年及以後，我們的現金稅率應與我們的 GAAP 稅率保持一致，因為新獲得的能源效率稅收抵免將在產生當年使用。

On to the balance sheet. Total liquidity at the end of the quarter was $541 million, comprised of $276 million of unrestricted cash and $265 million available on our fully undrawn revolver. Our net debt to net cap decreased to 40.3% and our net debt to LTM adjusted EBITDA was 2.2x. Our 2025 senior notes represent our nearest maturity and we anticipate using a combination of repayment and refinancing to address it. While we have no immediate plans to be in the market, we do expect to renew our shelf registration statement in the next couple of weeks.

到資產負債表上。本季度末的流動資金總額為 5.41 億美元，其中包括 2.76 億美元的非限制性現金和 2.65 億美元的未提取左輪手槍可用資金。我們的淨債務與淨上限之比下降至 40.3%，淨債務與 LTM 調整後 EBITDA 之比為 2.2 倍。我們的 2025 年優先票據代表了我們最近的到期日，我們預計將採用償還和再融資相結合的方式來解決這個問題。雖然我們沒有立即進入市場的計劃，但我們確實希望在未來幾週內更新我們的貨架註冊聲明。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Allan.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給艾倫。

Thank you, Dave. The third quarter was highly successful on 2 fronts. Financially, we generated excellent results driven by a strong sales pace and improvements in backlog conversion. And operationally, we made demonstrable progress toward our multiyear growth, balance sheet and energy efficiency goals. With a dedicated operating team, a growing community count and a more efficient and less leveraged balance sheet, we have the team, the land and the financial resources to create durable value for our stakeholders in the years ahead.

謝謝你，戴夫。第三季度在兩個方面都非常成功。在財務方面，由於強勁的銷售速度和積壓訂單轉化率的提高，我們取得了出色的業績。在運營方面，我們在實現多年增長、資產負債表和能源效率目標方面取得了明顯進展。憑藉專業的運營團隊、不斷增長的社區數量以及更高效、槓桿率更低的資產負債表，我們擁有團隊、土地和財務資源，可以在未來幾年為利益相關者創造持久價值。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to take us into Q&A.

這樣，我會將電話轉給接線員，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Congrats on all the great progress this year so far. First question on the gross margin and, I guess, the inputs that go into that. So nice upside this quarter. The guidance for 4Q implies kind of flattish, maybe even down a touch and that could be rounding, but it seems like from your comments, Allan, like you're pulling back a bit on incentives. You might have a little bit of pricing power. The cost environment seems pretty stable at this point. It could certainly reinflect higher again if the trades get stretched. But I guess my question is why at least for the near term wouldn't margins be on an upward trajectory, given the flow-through of, I would imagine, lower incentives coming through?

祝賀今年迄今為止取得的所有巨大進步。第一個問題是關於毛利率，我想是關於毛利率的投入。本季度的上漲空間非常好。第四季度的指導意味著有點平坦，甚至可能有所下降，並且可能會四捨五入，但從你的評論來看，艾倫，你似乎在激勵方面有所回撤。您可能有一點定價權。目前成本環境似乎相當穩定。如果交易變得緊張，它肯定會再次走高。但我想我的問題是，考慮到我想像的較低激勵措施的流入，為什麼至少在短期內利潤率不會呈上升趨勢？

Yes. I mean the mix of closings in the fourth quarter is going to continue to be heavily weighted toward homes that were sold early in the calendar year. So it really -- the sales activity in the third quarter really won't be in the fourth quarter results to any great extent. So it's mix and it's, frankly, just a little bit of uncertainty, Alan. But I think you characterized it as very flattish. But I think as we've looked at what's in backlog and when it was sold, a lot of that, as we pointed out, was sold at the end of last year, beginning of this year from a calendar perspective, that's where it falls.

是的。我的意思是，第四季度的成交量將繼續嚴重偏向於年初出售的房屋。所以，第三季度的銷售活動確實不會在很大程度上影響第四季度的業績。所以這是一個混合體，坦率地說，只是有點不確定性，艾倫。但我認為你把它形容為非常扁平。但我認為，當我們查看積壓訂單以及何時出售時，正如我們指出的那樣，從日曆的角度來看，其中很多是在去年年底、今年年初出售的，這就是它的落腳點。

Got it. Okay. I appreciate that. Second, on the community count ramp that you guys expect over the next handful of years, and I apologize if you've kind of given this detail. When I look at your lot count, it's been fairly steady over the last handful of years and yet going from 125 up to 200 communities is a very significant ramp. So just curious how much land -- how much lot growth do we need to see over, call it, the next 12 months to support that type of ramp? And I guess more broadly, how are you feeling about the land market these days in terms of pricing and availability, et cetera?

知道了。好的。我很感激。其次，關於你們預計在未來幾年內社區數量的增長，如果你們提供了這個細節，我深表歉意。當我查看你們的地塊數量時，發現過去幾年相當穩定，但從 125 個社區增加到 200 個社區是一個非常顯著的增長。所以我很好奇，未來 12 個月我們需要看到多少土地——我們需要看到多少土地增長來支持這種類型的坡道？我想更廣泛地說，您對目前土地市場的定價和可用性等有何看法？

Well, Alan, I would have you look back a little bit. We had a pretty significant growth in the land position over the last 3 or 4 years, which is what's really fueling the growth in community count that you're seeing. We were in the 18,000 lot range, and now we're up obviously in the 22,000 lots. So it's taken some time to go through LD on those lots, especially during COVID, given some of the disruptions we've had. But it's really that increase that you've seen that's really driving the community count growth that we're going to see in '24.

好吧，艾倫，我想讓你回顧一下。在過去的三四年裡，我們的土地位置有了相當顯著的增長，這才是真正推動了你所看到的社區數量增長的原因。我們之前在 18,000 手範圍內，現在我們明顯在 22,000 手範圍內。因此，考慮到我們遇到的一些干擾，對這些地塊進行 LD 需要一些時間，尤其是在新冠疫情期間。但您所看到的這種增長確實推動了我們將在 24 年看到的社區數量增長。

As to the second part of your question, look, we kind of mentioned during the script that we have good visibility in community count growth for the next 18 months. And as we go forward and as we kind of go quarter-to-quarter, we'll continue to update what we see from a community count perspective. But we have our eyes on getting over 200 by the end of 2026, that's the guidance. And we're finding land deals, frankly, that pencil and pencil well for us to go out and grow the community count.

至於你問題的第二部分，我們在腳本中提到，我們對未來 18 個月的社區數量增長有良好的了解。隨著我們的前進以及每季度的進展，我們將繼續更新我們從社區計數角度看到的情況。但我們的目標是到 2026 年底達到 200 多個，這是指導方針。坦率地說，我們正在尋找土地交易，這對我們走出去並增加社區數量來說非常有利。

Alan, I'll add a comment on the land market, and it's something I'm sure you're familiar with because I know you pay a lot of attention to the private builders. What's happened in the financing market with bank finance has changed the equation a little bit for builders that were, let's just say, project or revolver based. And so there's still plenty of competition for land deals, but there are a group of builders that are a little less, let's just say, expansive than they used to be, and that's been constructive.

艾倫，我將添加對土地市場的評論，我相信您對此很熟悉，因為我知道您非常關注私人建築商。銀行融資融資市場上發生的事情稍微改變了基於項目或左輪手槍的建築商的情況。因此，土地交易的競爭仍然很激烈，但有一群建築商的規模比以前要小一些，可以這麼說，這是建設性的。

Understood. I appreciate that. And Dave, just to kind of circle back, I appreciate the ramp over the last few years. I guess what I was looking at just in terms of the numbers. If I go back to, say, 2018, your lot count at that time was pretty similar to where it is today, just in absolute terms. And you never really got close to 200 communities. I know that number tailed off, obviously. So it's probably apples and oranges to some extent. But I think you probably peaked out at somewhere around 160, 170 communities. That's really what I was getting at. Like how much higher does that lot count need to go to kind of support a ramp of 200?

明白了。我很感激。戴夫，我想回顧一下，我很欣賞過去幾年的進步。我想我只是從數字來看我所看到的。如果我回到 2018 年，當時的抽籤數量與今天的數量非常相似，只是從絕對值來看。而且你從來沒有真正接近過 200 個社區。我知道這個數字顯然在減少。所以在某種程度上可能是蘋果和橙子。但我認為您可能在 160、170 個社區左右達到頂峰。這正是我的意思。比如需要多少手數才能支持 200 的增長？

You should expect our lot count over the next couple of years will get to 30,000 and beyond. And in fact, I think we'll be up in the fourth quarter year-over-year, which is going to put it above 25% this year. So that's not a big stretch. Remember, in some of those older periods or those long ago days, a lot of that lot count was land held for future development. And those were some big chunky assets that they counted as lots. They were lots. They eventually became closings, but there were some 300, 400, 500, 600 lot positions mixed in there that weren't terribly efficient in terms of generating community count.

您應該預計未來幾年我們的批次數量將達到 30,000 甚至更多。事實上，我認為我們第四季度的增長率將同比增長，今年將超過 25%。所以這並不是一個很大的延伸。請記住，在某些較早的時期或很久以前，很多地塊都是為未來開發而持有的土地。這些都是一些大而厚實的資產，他們算作很多。他們有很多。它們最終變成了關閉，但其中混合了大約 300、400、500、600 個地塊，在產生社區數量方面並不是非常有效。

Next, we'll go to the line of Alex Rygiel from B. Riley Securities.

接下來，我們將請來 B. Riley Securities 的 Alex Rygiel。

Gentlemen, very nice quarter. As it relates to G&A, is there a need to add overhead given the meaningful growth in community count just so you might lose a little bit of leverage?

先生們，非常好的季度。由於它與 G&A 相關，考慮到社區數量的顯著增長，是否需要增加管理費用，這樣您可能會失去一點影響力？

Well, I wouldn't say, Alex, that we're going to lose leverage. I think we're running a little bit higher on the overhead side now because we're planning for the community count growth that we have visibility into. Look, I think we've done a real good job over the last 4 or 5 years, really managing the absolute level of G&A from a dollar perspective. But we lost a little bit of leverage kind of this year as we've kind of been thinking about how we're going to grow and getting ready for the community count growth. So I don't necessarily think there's negative leverage in the future, but we're probably not in a number today that we would be as we're kind of setting up for the community count growth.

好吧，亞歷克斯，我不會說我們會失去影響力。我認為我們現在的管理費用有點高，因為我們正在計劃我們可以看到的社區數量增長。聽著，我認為我們在過去四五年裡做得非常好，真正從美元的角度管理了一般行政費用的絕對水平。但今年我們失去了一點影響力，因為我們一直在思考我們將如何發展並為社區數量的增長做好準備。因此，我不一定認為未來會出現負槓桿，但我們可能不會達到今天的數字，因為我們正在為社區數量的增長做好準備。

Very helpful. And then could you also talk to the higher backlog conversion year-over-year and where this trend could go several quarters out?

很有幫助。然後您能否談談同比較高的積壓訂單轉化率以及這種趨勢可能會持續幾個季度？

Look, I don't want to pontificate or make estimates, well, what's going to happen several quarters out. But the real key is, and we've talked about this, Alex, we've picked up about 3 months of cycle time on starts. We're starting to see that flow through on our closings. We talked about getting 40 days back. And clearly, the goal for us is to go out and get 30 days more and really work our way from there back towards where we were before pre-COVID disruption. So that's driving higher conversion rates, right, because cycle times are coming down and the idea is to continue to go claw back what we've lost. And we've made really good progress on starts, and that should come through on closings over time.

聽著，我不想武斷或做出估計，好吧，幾個季度後會發生什麼。但真正的關鍵是，我們已經討論過這一點，Alex，我們已經獲得了大約 3 個月的啟動週期時間。我們開始看到這種情況在我們的關閉中得到體現。我們討論了 40 天后的情況。顯然，我們的目標是再爭取 30 天的時間，並真正努力回到新冠疫情爆發之前的狀態。因此，這推動了更高的轉化率，對吧，因為周期時間正在縮短，我們的想法是繼續追回我們失去的東西。我們在啟動方面取得了非常好的進展，隨著時間的推移，這應該會在結束時實現。

Next, we'll go to the line of Jay McCanless from Wedbush.

接下來，我們將轉到韋德布什的傑伊·麥卡利斯 (Jay McCanless) 線路。

Dave, I wanted to follow on what you were saying for fiscal '24, with a $500,000 ASP. I mean it's not that much different from what you printed this quarter, but is it going to be a fast ramp down? Or is it something you get to by the end of the year where maybe you have a [fore handle] on that price by the end of the year? Is it going to be pretty flat you think?

Dave，我想按照您所說的 24 財年的平均售價為 500,000 美元。我的意思是，這與您本季度打印的內容沒有太大不同，但它會快速下降嗎？或者是你在年底之前會達到的目標，也許你在年底之前就可以掌握這個價格了？你認為它會很平坦嗎？

It is a ramp down, Jay. We haven't given specifics about 24%, but it is a bit of a ramp down. And it's just like we said in the prepared remarks, there's some mix in that from a community perspective. So as you get some of our more affordable communities coming online as we move through the year and you get some closings from those communities, you'll see that gradually go down.

這是一個下坡道，傑伊。我們沒有給出 24% 的具體情況，但這個數字有點下降。就像我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，從社區的角度來看，其中存在一些混合。因此，當我們在這一年中看到一些更實惠的社區上線，並且這些社區關閉時，您會發現這種情況逐漸下降。

And Jay, just one point, you'll see in our Q4 guidance that we talked about, something like $520,000. And we're a little concerned. That's a mix issue. It relates, as I told the prior question or answered in the prior question, it relates to homes that were sold 6 or 9 months ago. We didn't want folks trending off that $520,000 into next year. So I think it will trend down. But we expect the average for the full year, we'll be right around that $500,000 level.

Jay，只有一點，你會在我們討論過的第四季度指導中看到，大約是 520,000 美元。我們有點擔心。這是一個混合問題。正如我在上一個問題中所說或回答的那樣，它與 6 或 9 個月前出售的房屋有關。我們不希望人們把這 520,000 美元花到明年。所以我認為它會呈下降趨勢。但我們預計全年的平均水平將在 500,000 美元左右。

Got it. And then could you talk about pricing power during the third quarter, whether percentage or areas you were able to take price? Any color you could give us on that?

知道了。然後您能否談談第三季度的定價能力，無論是您能夠定價的百分比還是領域？你能給我們什麼顏色嗎？

Yes. I mean I look at incentives and between discounts and closing cost contributions and those kinds of things. And I think on sales that we were making, which was not very many of the closings that we had, there was the benefit of a couple of points. Now I always get a little nervous talking about this, not because I'm giving away some state secret. But if you change your base price by the dollar amount that you previously provided as an incentive, it's sometimes hard to see that when you look over time, right? You could say, "Well, gee, we didn't give any incentives." Well, yes, because your base prices were a lot lower.

是的。我的意思是，我會考慮激勵措施以及折扣和結賬成本貢獻之類的事情。我認為，就我們正在進行的銷售而言，我們的成交量並不多，但有幾點好處。現在談論這個我總是有點緊張，並不是因為我洩露了一些國家機密。但是，如果您按照之前作為激勵措施提供的美元金額來更改基本價格，那麼當您觀察一段時間後，有時很難發現這一點，對嗎？你可以說，“哎呀，我們沒有給予任何獎勵。”嗯，是的，因為你們的基本價格低得多。

So I just caution you, Jay, as you think about that picking up a couple of percentage points on incentives is terrific, and I believe it was, but there's also this ongoing dialogue about what are the included features and what is the base price that really best competes in the marketplace. And I do think it's an area that on the external side is not super well understood. There's a lot of, I think, undue confidence in measuring incentives given the number of moving parts that are both related to price and features. So I would say there was a little bit of pricing power, not a ton, and we saw it in those different levers. And I know that's not a super helpful answer. I'm not trying to be evasive. It's just -- it doesn't really lend itself to it was 3 points. It was 1 point because there are these other components to that equation.

所以我只是提醒你，傑伊，當你認為在激勵措施上提高幾個百分點是很棒的，我相信它是，但也有關於包含的功能和基本價格的持續對話真正在市場上最具競爭力。我確實認為這是一個從外部角度來說還沒有被很好理解的領域。我認為，考慮到與價格和功能相關的移動部件的數量，人們在衡量激勵措施方面存在很多不適當的信心。所以我想說，定價權是一點點，而不是很多，我們在這些不同的槓桿中看到了它。我知道這不是一個非常有幫助的答案。我並不是想迴避。只是——這並不真正適合 3 分。得 1 分是因為該方程還有其他組成部分。

Okay. Got it. And then the last question I had, I guess, the -- it was going to be another incentive question, but I'll ask something different.

好的。知道了。然後我想，最後一個問題——這將是另一個激勵問題，但我會問一些不同的問題。

I'm sorry. I wore you out.

對不起。我把你累壞了。

It's all right. No, no. So the move higher that we've seen in cash lumber over the last 8 or 9 weeks, when -- if this continues, when do you think this will show up in your gross margins like mid-'24? Or when should we expect to see maybe a little headwind from higher lumber in addition to higher everything else?

沒關係。不，不。因此，我們在過去 8 或 9 週內看到現金木材價格上漲，如果這種情況持續下去，您認為這種情況何時會像 24 年中期那樣出現在您的毛利率中？或者我們什麼時候應該看到木材價格上漲以及其他所有因素上漲帶來的一些阻力？

Yes. It is sometime in '24. It's hard for me to say. I mean we're -- we've been pretty effective this spring having 90 and 120 days and a couple of 180-day a lot that I'm aware of. So we have some resiliency. If rates -- if lumber moves higher and stays higher, we'll certainly feel that, but we won't feel it for a couple of quarters at this point.

是的。這是24年的某個時候。我很難說。我的意思是，據我所知，今年春天我們的工作非常有效，有 90 天和 120 天，還有幾個 180 天。所以我們有一定的彈性。如果利率上升——如果木材價格上漲並保持在較高水平，我們肯定會感覺到這一點，但目前我們在幾個季度內不會有這種感覺。

(Operator Instructions) Next, we'll go to the line of Julio Romero from Sidoti.

（操作員說明） 接下來，我們將前往來自 Sidoti 的 Julio Romero 線路。

Wanted to ask a little bit more about the directional visibility for fiscal '24. You talked about ASPs being around $500,000 due to the more affordable mix. I was just hoping you could expand on that. Do you expect maybe the geographies to change? Do you expect maybe smaller homes or lesser amenities? Just anything more you can give us on the mix would be helpful.

想更多地了解 24 財年的方向可見性。您談到由於更實惠的組合，平均售價約為 500,000 美元。我只是希望你能對此進行擴展。您預計地理位置會發生變化嗎？您是否期望較小的房屋或較少的設施？只要您能向我們提供有關混音的更多信息，就會很有幫助。

So Julio, what's happened in the course, you know this, last fall, last summer as rates were moving higher, we and everybody else were looking at what are the features that can be removed from homes to help address affordability, what's the right way to approach pricing versus incentives. But many of those effects for us didn't really affect our fiscal '23 because so much of fiscal '23's closings was carried into the fiscal year from 2022. So the very largest component of what you're seeing is the effect of adjustments that we've made in the last year that we'll have really -- that will be in the mix growth for the full year. And that's probably the lion's share.

胡里奧，課程中發生了什麼，你知道，去年秋天，去年夏天，隨著利率走高，我們和其他人都在研究哪些功能可以從家庭中刪除，以幫助解決負擔能力問題，什麼是正確的方法比較定價與激勵措施。但對我們來說，其中許多影響並沒有真正影響我們的 23 財年，因為 23 財年的大部分結賬都轉入 2022 年起的財年。因此，您看到的最大組成部分是調整的影響我們在去年取得了真正的成果——這將體現在全年的混合增長中。這可能是最大的份額。

The rest of it is at the edge is changing, the plan lineup in a community. If we had a 2,200, a 2,400 to 2,800 in a 3,200-foot plan, we may have eliminated the 3,200-foot plan. And that's easy to do. Taking a 2,400-foot home and downsizing it by 90 square feet, that's really hard to do. So the plan lineup is an area where we got after it. And frankly, we do have some townhome communities joining the community count in 2024. Not a hugely higher percentage, but there will be a slightly higher percentage of attached product for us which, again, has been part of a multiyear strategy to make sure we stay affordable. So those are the bigger buckets. Is that helpful?

其餘的部分正在改變，計劃陣容在社區中。如果我們在 3,200 英尺的計劃中有 2,200、2,400 到 2,800，我們可能會取消 3,200 英尺的計劃。這很容易做到。把2400尺的房子縮小90尺，確實很難做到。所以計劃陣容是我們追求的一個領域。坦率地說，我們確實有一些聯排別墅社區將在 2024 年加入社區計數。比例並不是很高，但我們的附屬產品比例會稍高，這也是我們多年戰略的一部分，以確保我們保持實惠。所以這些是更大的桶。有幫助嗎？

It is. I appreciate that. And then my second question would be, I guess -- so one thing that isn't changing is obviously your plan to be Net Zero Energy Ready. Do you have a target for maybe the percentage of starts next year that you're looking to have Net Zero Energy Ready?

這是。我很感激。然後我的第二個問題是，我想 - 所以沒有改變的一件事顯然是你的淨零能源準備計劃。您是否有一個目標，即明年您希望實現淨零能耗就緒的啟動百分比？

Nice try. I don't blame you for asking. It's an upward -- like I was -- I really -- we spent a lot of time looking at that chart. We're going to get to 100% by the end of fiscal '25. We will make a significant jump in '24. I want to be a little careful, but boy, we went from 2% two quarters ago to 11% this quarter. It is going to be a much higher percentage in the coming quarters.

不錯的嘗試。我不怪你問這個問題。這是一個向上的 - 就像我一樣 - 我真的 - 我們花了很多時間看那個圖表。我們將在 25 財年末達到 100%。我們將在 24 年實現重大飛躍。我想小心一點，但是天哪，我們從兩個季度前的 2% 上升到本季度的 11%。未來幾個季度這一比例將會更高。

And our final question showing in queue is from Alex Barrón from Housing Research Center.

我們隊列中顯示的最後一個問題來自住房研究中心的 Alex Barrón。

Yes. I noticed the $5 million debt repurchase. I was curious, is there -- are you constrained as to how much you're able to do? And also, is there any update on thoughts around share buyback, given you're still trading below book value?

是的。我注意到 500 萬美元的債務回購。我很好奇，你的能力是否受到限制？另外，鑑於您的交易價格仍低於賬面價值，有關股票回購的想法是否有任何更新？

Yes. So let's start, Alex, with the bonds. There is no limitation. And look, we mentioned in the script that we expect to deal up to '25 with the combination of refinancing and repayment. But we have the liquidity and the capacity to go pay off the maturity if we wanted to completely. We believe there's -- the market conditions are going to give us an ability to do some of that refinancing to do the mix that we talked about, but what we won't do is really get kind of put in a position where we have to do a financing at a price or at a yield that we're not happy with. So we have a lot of flexibility, certainly from a covenant perspective and what we can do perspective and from a liquidity perspective. Really no issue there at all.

是的。亞歷克斯，讓我們從債券開始吧。沒有限制。看，我們在劇本中提到，我們預計將再融資和還款相結合，處理到 25 年。但如果我們願意的話，我們有流動性和能力償還到期債務。我們相信，市場狀況將使我們有能力進行一些再融資，以實現我們談到的混合，但我們不會做的是真正處於我們必須這樣做的境地以我們不滿意的價格或收益率進行融資。因此，我們有很大的靈活性，當然是從契約的角度、我們能做什麼的角度以及流動性的角度來看。確實沒有任何問題。

In terms of share repurchases, I would tell you right now, given our growth aspirations, it's kind of a low priority for us. It is something that we do think about, and there are times for it. But right now, we have aspirations to grow the business. And that's the highest risk-adjusted return for us to go out and invest in land right now.

在股票回購方面，我現在就告訴你，考慮到我們的增長願望，這對我們來說並不是一個優先事項。這是我們確實思考的事情，而且有時也會思考。但現在，我們有發展業務的願望。這是我們目前出去投資土地的最高風險調整回報。

Okay. And sorry if I missed it, but I keep -- maybe you mentioned it. Did you guys comment anything on guidance for what kind of closings do you think you'll be able to do for the year or next quarter?

好的。如果我錯過了，抱歉，但我保留了——也許你提到過。你們對今年或下個季度能夠完成什麼樣的交易的指導意見發表過評論嗎？

We gave closings of 1,200 closings next quarter, Alex, and then you can kind of sum to the year from there.

Alex，我們給出了下季度 1,200 筆交易的成交量，然後你可以從那裡算出全年的總和。

Got it. All right, guys. Thanks, and good luck and great job.

知道了。好吧，伙計們。謝謝，祝你好運，工作順利。

And we have no further questions at this time.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。

Okay. I want to thank everybody for joining us on our third quarter conference call. We'll be back in a quarter to wrap up the year. We appreciate your interest in Beazer and we will talk soon.

好的。我要感謝大家參加我們的第三季度電話會議。我們將在一個季度後回來總結這一年。我們感謝您對 Beazer 的興趣，我們很快就會討論。

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect your line, and enjoy the rest of your day.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。您可以斷開線路，享受剩下的一天。