(BPOP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to today's Popular Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Bailey, and I will be the moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions).

大家好，歡迎來到今天熱門的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。我叫 Bailey，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）。

I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Paul Cardillo, Investor Relations Officer at Popular. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給我們的主持人，Popular 的投資者關係官 Paul Cardillo。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With us on the call today is our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez; our COO, Javier Ferrer; our CFO, Carlos Vazquez; and our CRO, Lidio Soriano. They will review our results for the full year and fourth quarter and then answer your questions. Other members of our management team will also be available during the Q&A session.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我們通話的是我們的首席執行官 Ignacio Alvarez；我們的首席運營官 Javier Ferrer；我們的首席財務官 Carlos Vazquez；以及我們的首席風險官 Lidio Soriano。他們將審查我們全年和第四季度的業績，然後回答您的問題。我們管理團隊的其他成員也將在問答環節出席。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that on today's call, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth within today's earnings press release and are detailed in our SEC filings. You may find today's press release and our SEC filings on our web page at popular.com. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議上，我們可能會根據管理層當前的預期做出前瞻性陳述，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。今天的收益新聞稿中列出了可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素，並在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了詳細說明。您可以在我們的網頁 popular.com 上找到今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Ignacio Alvarez。

Good morning, and thank you for joining the call. Our results for the quarter and the full year were solid and reflect the strength of our franchise. Our record annual net income of $1.1 billion reflects an increase of $168 million above our 2021 annual net income of $935 million. The increase was largely driven by the benefit of the Evertec transactions and the partial reversal of the DTA valuation allowance.

早上好，感謝您加入電話會議。我們本季度和全年的業績都很穩健，反映了我們特許經營權的實力。我們創紀錄的 11 億美元年度淨收入比 2021 年 9.35 億美元的年度淨收入增加了 1.68 億美元。增長的主要原因是 Evertec 交易的收益和 DTA 估值津貼的部分逆轉。

The results also reflect higher net interest income, partially offset by higher provision expense and higher operating expenses. The 2021 results included a provision benefit of $193 million. During the summer, we completed the acquisition of key customer-facing channels from Evertec and

結果還反映出更高的淨利息收入，部分被更高的撥備費用和更高的運營費用所抵消。 2021 年的業績包括 1.93 億美元的撥備收益。在夏季，我們完成了從 Evertec 和

Also made important changes to our contractual relationship with them.

還對我們與他們的合同關係進行了重要更改。

Leveraging these transactions, we have embarked on a broad-based multiyear technological and business process transformation. The needs and expectation of our clients as well as the competitive landscape have evolved requiring us to make important investments in our technological infrastructure and adopt more agile practices.

利用這些交易，我們開始了基礎廣泛的多年技術和業務流程轉型。客戶的需求和期望以及競爭格局的變化要求我們對技術基礎設施進行重要投資並採用更靈活的做法。

Our technology and business transformation will be a significant priority for the company over the next 3 years and beyond. We believe that there continues to be opportunity for growth in our primary market as well as within our existing customer base, and these efforts will help capitalize upon that opportunity.

我們的技術和業務轉型將是公司未來 3 年及以後的重要優先事項。我們相信，在我們的主要市場以及我們現有的客戶群中繼續存在增長機會，這些努力將有助於利用這一機會。

We are confident that these investments will make us a stronger, more efficient and profitable company. Throughout 2022, we continued to return capital to our shareholders. During the year, we repurchased 8.25 million shares of common stock for $631 million, which surpassed our original expectation of $500 million.

我們相信，這些投資將使我們成為一家更強大、更高效、盈利能力更強的公司。整個 2022 年，我們繼續向股東返還資本。年內，我們以 6.31 億美元回購了 825 萬股普通股，超過了我們原先預期的 5 億美元。

We also increased our quarterly common stock dividend to $0.55 per share, representing nearly $164 million in dividends paid in 2022.

我們還將季度普通股股息提高至每股 0.55 美元，相當於 2022 年支付的股息近 1.64 億美元。

Credit quality remained strong throughout 2022. We are pleased with how our portfolios have continued to perform, particularly with net charge-offs well below historical levels and a lower level of nonperforming loans.

信貸質量在整個 2022 年保持強勁。我們對我們的投資組合的持續表現感到滿意，特別是淨沖銷遠低於歷史水平和不良貸款水平較低。

Our capital levels are strong with year-end common equity Tier 1 ratio of 16.4%. Our tangible book value ended 2022 at $44.97, a 31% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to unrealized losses on investment securities. However, during the fourth quarter, tangible book value increased by 16%.

我們的資本水平強勁，年末普通股一級資本比率為 16.4%。截至 2022 年，我們的有形賬面價值為 44.97 美元，同比下降 31%，這主要是由於投資證券的未實現虧損。然而，在第四季度，有形賬面價值增長了 16%。

Please turn to Slide 4. Our quarterly net income, excluding the partial reversal of the DTA valuation allowance, was $189 million or $7 million lower than the adjusted third quarter net income of $196 million.

請轉到幻燈片 4。我們的季度淨收入（不包括 DTA 估值津貼的部分逆轉）為 1.89 億美元，比調整後的第三季度淨收入 1.96 億美元低 700 萬美元。

Fourth quarter results were impacted by lower net interest income, which reflected higher loan income but was more than offset by the higher cost of public deposits as well as a higher provision for credit losses.

第四季度業績受到較低的淨利息收入的影響，這反映了較高的貸款收入，但被較高的公共存款成本和較高的信貸損失準備金所抵消。

Loan growth was strong and broad-based during the quarter, both geographically and across most loan segments. Total loan balances held in portfolio grew by $560 million. Commercial loan growth in particular was healthy at both banks in the fourth quarter.

本季度貸款增長強勁且基礎廣泛，無論是在地理上還是在大多數貸款領域。投資組合中持有的貸款餘額總額增加了 5.6 億美元。第四季度兩家銀行的商業貸款增長尤為健康。

Our net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points to 3.28% in the quarter. Higher deposit costs particularly in our Puerto Rico public deposit portfolio and at Popular bank impacted the margin. This was offset in part by an improvement in asset mix due to loan growth and a reduction in the investment portfolio.

我們的淨息差在本季度下降了 4 個基點至 3.28%。較高的存款成本，尤其是我們波多黎各公共存款組合和大眾銀行的存款成本影響了利潤率。這部分被貸款增長和投資組合減少導致的資產組合改善所抵消。

Credit quality trends remained favorable during the period. Nonperforming loans decreased in the quarter and net charge-offs have remained well below pre-pandemic levels.

信貸質量趨勢在此期間保持良好。本季度不良貸款有所減少，淨沖銷額仍遠低於大流行前的水平。

Please turn to Slide 5. Our customer base in Puerto Rico grew by approximately 28,000 during the year, reaching 1.98 million unique customers. Adoption of digital channels among our retail customers continues to be strong. Active users on our Mi Banco platform exceeded 1.1 million or 56% of our customer base.

請轉到幻燈片 5。我們在波多黎各的客戶群在這一年中增長了大約 28,000，達到 198 萬獨立客戶。我們的零售客戶對數字渠道的採用繼續保持強勁勢頭。小米銀行平台的活躍用戶超過 110 萬，占我們客戶群的 56%。

Additionally, we continue to capture over 60% of our deposits through digital channels. This trend remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels and well above our island peers. Commercial loan growth was strong. Commercial loan balances at BPPR at Popular Bank increased by $118 million and $255 million, respectively.

此外，我們繼續通過數字渠道獲取超過 60% 的存款。這一趨勢仍然明顯高於大流行前的水平，並且遠高於我們的島嶼同行。商業貸款增長強勁。大眾銀行 BPPR 的商業貸款餘額分別增加了 1.18 億美元和 2.55 億美元。

Credit card and auto loan and lease balances at BPPR increased by $53 million and $31 million, respectively. In the fourth quarter, the dollar value of credit and debit card sales of our customers increased by 11% sequentially and were 6% above the fourth quarter of 2021.

BPPR 的信用卡和汽車貸款及租賃餘額分別增加了 5300 萬美元和 3100 萬美元。第四季度，我們客戶的信用卡和借記卡銷售額的美元價值環比增長 11%，比 2021 年第四季度增長 6%。

As on the mainland, mortgage originations to Puerto Rico have been impacted by rising rates and limited inventory of available properties. The dollar value of mortgage originations at BPPR decreased by 29% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, driven by lower refinance activity due to the interest rate environment. However, loans to finance the purchase of homes decreased only 11% during the same period.

與大陸一樣，波多黎各的抵押貸款發放受到利率上升和可用房產庫存有限的影響。由於利率環境導致再融資活動減少，BPPR 抵押貸款的美元價值與去年第四季度相比下降了 29%。然而，同期用於購房的貸款僅下降了 11%。

The local economy continued to perform well during the fourth quarter and business activity has remained strong. We remain encouraged by solid employment levels. In December, total non-farm employment in Puerto Rico increased slightly from its level in September and was 4% higher than in December of 2021.

本地經濟在第四季度繼續表現良好，商業活動依然強勁。我們仍然對穩固的就業水平感到鼓舞。 12 月，波多黎各的非農就業總人數較 9 月略有增加，比 2021 年 12 月高出 4%。

New auto sales increased by 3% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2021. While auto sales declined by 4% in the year, 2022 was the second highest year of sales since 2006, easily surpassing pre-pandemic levels, evidencing continued robust demand for cars and (inaudible). The industry is forecasting new car sales of 118,000 for 2023, well above pre-pandemic levels.

與 2021 年同期相比，第四季度新車銷量增長 3%。儘管全年汽車銷量下降 4%，但 2022 年是自 2006 年以來銷量第二高的年份，輕鬆超過大流行前的水平，證據仍在繼續對汽車和（聽不清）的強勁需求。該行業預測 2023 年新車銷量為 118,000 輛，遠高於大流行前的水平。

The tourism and hospitality sector continues to be a source of strength for the local economy as Puerto Rico is a popular destination for mainland residents. Airport traffic has remained robust. Year-to-date through December, total passenger traffic increased by 7% compared to 2021.

由於波多黎各是大陸居民的熱門目的地，旅遊業和酒店業繼續成為當地經濟的力量來源。機場交通一直保持強勁。從年初至今到 12 月，總客運量與 2021 年相比增長了 7%。

Wholesale demand has also remained strong. Occupancy rates were up more than 500 basis points in 2022 and the average daily room rate continued to compare favorably to historical results.

批發需求也保持強勁。 2022 年的入住率上升了 500 多個基點，平均每日房價繼續優於歷史結果。

In short, we are pleased with our results for the year, particularly our robust loan growth and continued strength in credit quality. We are mindful of the global economic uncertainty and market volatility, but remain optimistic about the future of Puerto Rico, our primary market, and our ability to manage through any potential challenges that may lay ahead. I now turn the call over to Carlos for more detail on our financial results.

簡而言之，我們對今年的業績感到滿意，尤其是我們強勁的貸款增長和持續強勁的信貸質量。我們注意到全球經濟的不確定性和市場波動，但對我們的主要市場波多黎各的未來以及我們應對未來可能面臨的任何潛在挑戰的能力保持樂觀。我現在把電話轉給卡洛斯，了解我們財務業績的更多細節。

Thank you, Ignacio, and good morning. Before we turn to fourth quarter results, let me expand on Popular's 2022 full year performance, which is included in the appendix to this presentation and today's press release.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧，早上好。在我們轉向第四季度業績之前，讓我詳細介紹一下 Popular 的 2022 年全年業績，該業績包含在本演示文稿和今天的新聞稿的附錄中。

In 2022, we reported record annual net income of $1.1 billion, $168 million of our 2021 annual net income. The increase was largely driven by the benefit of the Evertec transactions and the partial reversal of the DTA valuation allowance, somewhat offset by provision expense. Our net interest income increased by 11% year-over-year to $2.17 billion due to higher rates, loan growth and the change in the mix of earning assets.

2022 年，我們報告的年度淨收入達到創紀錄的 11 億美元，占我們 2021 年年度淨收入的 1.68 億美元。增長的主要原因是 Evertec 交易的收益和 DTA 估值津貼的部分逆轉，在一定程度上被撥備費用所抵消。由於更高的利率、貸款增長和盈利資產組合的變化，我們的淨利息收入同比增長 11% 至 21.7 億美元。

For the year, we reported an $83 million provision for credit losses, which compares to a provision benefit of $193 million in 2021. Noninterest income increased by $254 million year-over-year, primarily driven by the impact of the Evertec transactions.

今年，我們報告了 8300 萬美元的信貸損失準備金，而 2021 年的準備金收益為 1.93 億美元。非利息收入同比增長 2.54 億美元，主要受 Evertec 交易的影響。

Operating expenses increased 13% in 2022 to $1.75 billion, with higher personnel, technology, professional fees and regulatory costs.

2022 年運營支出增長 13% 至 17.5 億美元，人員、技術、專業費用和監管成本增加。

Please turn to Slide 6. Net income for the fourth quarter was $257 million. This compares to $422 million in Q3. Excluding the impact of the Evertec transactions in Q3 and the DTA reversal in Q4, net income decreased $7 million to $189 million in Q4.

請翻到幻燈片 6。第四季度的淨收入為 2.57 億美元。相比之下，第三季度為 4.22 億美元。排除第三季度 Evertec 交易和第四季度 DTA 逆轉的影響，第四季度淨收入減少 700 萬美元至 1.89 億美元。

Net interest income for the fourth quarter was $560 million, a decrease of $20 million from Q3. Interest income grew by $62 million from loan growth of both banks as well as higher yields on loans and investment securities. This was more than by offset by higher interest expense on deposits resulted from increased deposit rates mainly from Puerto Rico public deposits and to a lesser extent Popular Bank.

第四季度的淨利息收入為 5.6 億美元，比第三季度減少 2000 萬美元。由於兩家銀行的貸款增長以及貸款和投資證券收益率的提高，利息收入增加了 6200 萬美元。這被主要來自波多黎各公共存款和較小程度的大眾銀行的存款利率提高導致的存款利息支出增加所抵消。

Noninterest income was $158 million, a decrease of $268 million from Q3. The results of the third quarter included a $258 million pretax gain on the Evertec transactions adding favorable fair value purchase price adjustment of $9.2 million related to the U.S. equipment finance business we acquired in 2021.

非利息收入為 1.58 億美元，比第三季度減少 2.68 億美元。第三季度的業績包括 Evertec 交易的 2.58 億美元稅前收益，以及與我們在 2021 年收購的美國設備融資業務相關的 920 萬美元的有利公允價值購買價格調整。

Excluding these items, the remaining variance in noninterest income, resulting mainly from lower deposit service fees. The fourth quarter noninterest income results fully embed the changes in over drug policies and the reduction in equity pickup for the sale of our Evertec shares. The results also include an $8.2 million gain on the sale of a previously written-off investments, excluding this gain, the noninterest income for the quarter would have been approximately $150 million.

排除這些項目，非利息收入的剩餘差異主要來自較低的存款服務費。第四季度的非利息收入結果完全體現了過度藥物政策的變化和出售我們 Evertec 股票的股權收購的減少。該結果還包括出售先前註銷的投資獲得的 820 萬美元收益，若不計入該收益，本季度的非利息收入約為 1.5 億美元。

For 2023, we expect noninterest income to continue around this $150 million per quarter run rate or approximately $600 million for the year.

到 2023 年，我們預計非利息收入將繼續保持在每季度 1.5 億美元左右或全年約 6 億美元。

The provision for credit losses in the fourth quarter was $50 million compared to $40 million in the third quarter. Total operating expenses were $462 million in the quarter, a decrease of $14 million from the prior quarter. Q3 included $17 million expenses related to the Evertec transactions and a $9 million goodwill impairment on our U.S. equipment finance business.

第四季度的信貸損失準備金為 5000 萬美元，而第三季度為 4000 萬美元。本季度總運營費用為 4.62 億美元，比上一季度減少 1400 萬美元。第三季度包括與 Evertec 交易相關的 1700 萬美元費用和我們美國設備融資業務的 900 萬美元商譽減值。

Excluding these items, expenses increased by $12 million, mostly resulting from a $10 million increase in technology expenses, seasonally higher business promotion expenses by $4 million, higher other processing intersectional services by $4 million, mainly due to higher network incentives received during the prior quarter and higher professional fees.

不包括這些項目，費用增加了 1200 萬美元，主要是由於技術費用增加了 1000 萬美元，業務推廣費用季節性增加了 400 萬美元，其他處理交叉服務增加了 400 萬美元，這主要是由於上一季度收到的網絡獎勵增加和更高的專業費用。

For 2023, we expect annual expenses of approximately $1.87 billion compared to our expenses of $1.75 billion during 2022. The drivers of the $120 million increase will be: first, continued increase in personnel expenses, driven primarily by the previously announced increase in our minimum hourly wage from $13 to $15, which took effect on January 1. This will add approximately $15 million to expenses in 2023.

到 2023 年，我們預計年度支出約為 18.7 億美元，而 2022 年的支出為 17.5 億美元。增加 1.2 億美元的驅動因素將是：工資從 13 美元漲到 15 美元，於 1 月 1 日生效。這將使 2023 年的開支增加約 1500 萬美元。

Additionally, the market salary adjustments that were made effective on July 1st of last year, will be in effect for the full year 2023. There will also be a 2023 (inaudible) increase that traditionally is granted in the summer. These 2 items will add approximately $24 million to expenses in 2023. These actions are necessary to keep our compensation competitive.

此外，去年 7 月 1 日生效的市場薪資調整將在 2023 年全年生效。傳統上在夏季授予的 2023 年（聽不清）加薪也將生效。這 2 項將使 2023 年的開支增加約 2400 萬美元。這些行動對於保持我們的薪酬具有競爭力是必要的。

Second, we expect that the FDA sees 2 basis points increase in assessment rate to all depository institutions will add $14 million to expenses. Pension and retirement health care expenses will also increase by $19 million.

其次，我們預計 FDA 對所有存款機構的評估率提高 2 個基點將增加 1400 萬美元的支出。養老金和退休醫療保健費用也將增加 1900 萬美元。

Finally, as Ignacio described in his opening remarks, we have undertaken a significant multiyear corporate transformation initiative. As part of this transformation, we need to expand our digital capabilities, modernize our technology platform and to implement agile and efficient business processes across the entire company.

最後，正如 Ignacio 在其開場白中所描述的那樣，我們已經開展了一項重要的多年企業轉型計劃。作為這一轉型的一部分，我們需要擴展我們的數字能力，使我們的技術平台現代化，並在整個公司實施敏捷高效的業務流程。

Since completing the Evertec transactions on July 1, through the end of last year, we invested $24 million towards this effort primarily in professional fees and technology expenses.

自 7 月 1 日完成 Evertec 交易以來，到去年年底，我們為此投入了 2400 萬美元，主要用於支付專業費用和技術費用。

In 2023, we anticipate transformation-related expenses of $50 million. These technological ways of working and operational investments will result in an enhanced data experience from our clients as well as better technology and more efficient processes for our employees. We expect these efforts to contribute to higher earnings and a better efficiency, resulting in a sustainable 14% RoTCE target by the end of 2025. To facilitate the transparency of our progress in some of these efforts we have now separated technology, professional fees and transaction activities as standalone items in our income statement.

到 2023 年，我們預計與轉型相關的費用為 5000 萬美元。這些技術工作方式和運營投資將為我們的客戶帶來更好的數據體驗，並為我們的員工帶來更好的技術和更高效的流程。我們預計這些努力將有助於提高收益和效率，從而實現到 2025 年底可持續的 14% RoTCE 目標。為了提高我們在其中一些努力中取得的進展的透明度，我們現在將技術、專業費用和交易分開在我們的損益表中作為獨立項目的活動。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was a benefit of 24% compared to an expense of 14% in the third quarter. The income tax benefit in Q4 was mainly due to the $68 million partial reversal of the DTA valuation allowance of the U.S. operation. Excluding this impact, the effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 12% compared to 14% in the third quarter.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 24%，而第三季度為 14%。第四季度的所得稅收益主要是由於美國業務的 DTA 估值津貼 6800 萬美元的部分沖銷。排除這一影響，第四季度的有效稅率為 12%，而第三季度為 14%。

This partial reversal was based on our evaluation of the sustained profitability of the U.S. operation over the last 2 years as well as evidence of stable credit metrics while considering the remaining life of the net operating losses. As of December 31, 2022, the DTA related to the U.S. operations was $278 million, net of our valuation allowance of $423 million.

這種部分逆轉是基於我們對美國業務在過去 2 年的持續盈利能力的評估，以及在考慮淨運營虧損的剩餘壽命的情況下穩定的信用指標的證據。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，與美國業務相關的 DTA 為 2.78 億美元，扣除我們的估值備抵 4.23 億美元。

For the full year 2023, we expect the effective tax rate to be in a range of 18% to 22%. Please turn to Slide 7.

對於 2023 年全年，我們預計有效稅率將在 18% 至 22% 之間。請轉到幻燈片 7。

Net interest income was $560 million. On a taxable equivalent basis, it was $622 million, $25 million lower than in the third quarter. Net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points to 3.28% in Q4. On a taxable equivalent basis, NIM was 3.64%, a decrease of 7 basis points.

淨利息收入為 5.6 億美元。按應稅等值計算，為 6.22 億美元，比第三季度減少 2500 萬美元。第四季度淨息差下降 4 個基點至 3.28%。按應稅等值計算，淨息差為 3.64%，下降 7 個基點。

The decrease is driven by higher interest expense on deposits due to a significant, though anticipated, 159 basis point increase in the cost of public deposits. This was partially offset by higher loan balances and yields caused an improved mix of earning assets. At the end of the fourth quarter, public deposits were roughly $15.2 billion, a decrease of $2.2 billion from Q3.

減少的原因是存款利息支出增加，這是由於公共存款成本顯著（儘管是預期的）增加 159 個基點。這部分被較高的貸款餘額和收益率所抵消，導致盈利資產的組合有所改善。第四季度末，公共存款約為 152 億美元，比第三季度減少 22 億美元。

We expect public deposits to be in a range of $13 billion to $15 billion during 2023. Over the next couple of quarters, the balance of our deposits should increase during the cyclical nature of tax collections. However, the balances should decrease during the second half of 2023.

我們預計 2023 年公共存款將在 130 億美元至 150 億美元之間。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們的存款餘額應該會隨著稅收的周期性增加。但是，餘額在 2023 年下半年應該會減少。

Excluding Puerto Rico public deposits, deposit balances declined by $1.4 billion in the quarter, mainly from excess cash balances of corporate clients. These declines are reflective of clients pursuing better yields on excess liquidity.

剔除波多黎各公共存款，本季度存款餘額減少 14 億美元，主要來自企業客戶的過剩現金餘額。這些下降反映出客戶在流動性過剩的情況下追求更高的收益率。

Popular continues to have a strong relationship with these clients. Our Puerto Rico commercial deposit balances remain $5 billion higher than they were in December of 2019. We will continue to actively manage the cost of commercial deposits, taking into consideration the overall client relationship and our liquidity position. Retail deposit balances remain stable.

Popular 繼續與這些客戶保持著牢固的關係。我們的波多黎各商業存款餘額仍比 2019 年 12 月高出 50 億美元。我們將繼續積極管理商業存款成本，同時考慮到整體客戶關係和我們的流動性狀況。零售存款結餘保持穩定。

Our ending loan balances increased by $560 million or almost 2% compared to Q3 and are up by $2.8 billion or just under 10% year-to-date. Commercial loan growth was particularly strong, and all other loan segments were higher in the quarter, except for construction.

與第三季度相比，我們的期末貸款餘額增加了 5.6 億美元或近 2%，今年迄今增加了 28 億美元或略低於 10%。商業貸款增長特別強勁，本季度所有其他貸款類別均有所增加，建築除外。

We are encouraged by credit demand at BPPR and PB. We will continue to take advantage of opportunities to extend credit, thereby improving the use and yield of our existing liquidity. While we expect to see continued strong loan growth in 2023, we do not anticipate it will replicate 2022's exceptional growth rate.

我們對 BPPR 和 PB 的信貸需求感到鼓舞。我們將繼續利用機會擴大信貸，從而改善我們現有流動資金的使用和收益。雖然我們預計 2023 年貸款將持續強勁增長，但我們預計它不會復制 2022 年的超常增長率。

Please turn to Slide 8. Year-to-date, our retail deposit franchise, particularly Puerto Rico, has continued to track below the historical beta. Commercial deposit betas have remained low, but are now tracking slightly above to prior cycle. Combined, retail and commercial, deposits represent a lower proportion of total deposits compared to the last rate cycle due to the increase in public deposits.

請轉到幻燈片 8。年初至今，我們的零售存款專營權，尤其是波多黎各，繼續低於歷史貝塔。商業存款貝塔係數一直很低，但現在略高於前一個週期。由於公共存款的增加，與上一個利率週期相比，零售和商業存款佔總存款的比例較低。

As we discussed last quarter, during the rapid shift up to higher interest -- short-term interest rates, we expect that a significant increase in the cost of public deposits. In the fourth quarter, the cost increased by 159 basis points. We expect the magnitude of the increase in cost of public deposits to moderate in Q1 to approximately 120 basis points.

正如我們上個季度討論的那樣，在快速轉向更高利率的過程中——短期利率，我們預計公共存款成本將大幅增加。第四季度，成本增加了159個基點。我們預計第一季度公共存款成本的增長幅度將放緩至約 120 個基點。

As we have described in the past, the deposit pricing agreement with Puerto Rico public sector clients is market linked with a lag. This source of funding results in an attractive spread under market rates.

正如我們過去所描述的那樣，與波多黎各公共部門客戶的存款定價協議與市場掛鉤，存在滯後性。這種資金來源導致市場利率下有吸引力的價差。

Please turn to Slide 9. In 2022, we reported a decrease in fair value of the investment portfolio that we expect to be temporary. Our investment portfolio is almost entirely comprised of treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities which carry minimal credit risk.

請轉到幻燈片 9。2022 年，我們報告了投資組合的公允價值下降，我們預計這是暫時的。我們的投資組合幾乎完全由信用風險極小的國債和機構抵押貸款支持證券組成。

The [bank] portfolio has an average duration of approximately 2.8 years. As the position roll down the yield curve, their fair value will convert to par and the mark will go down to 0. As discussed in our last webcast, given the rapid increase in interest rates in 2022 as well as the uncertain outlook for interest rates, in October, we transferred to held to maturity $6.5 billion of U.S. treasuries in the 4- to 6-year term, thereby reducing the future impact of rates on tangible book value.

[銀行]投資組合的平均久期約為 2.8 年。隨著頭寸沿著收益率曲線向下滾動，其公允價值將轉換為面值，馬克將降至 0。正如我們在上次網絡廣播中所討論的那樣，鑑於 2022 年利率的快速上升以及利率前景的不確定性10 月，我們將 65 億美元的 4 至 6 年期美國國債轉為持有至到期，從而降低未來利率對有形賬面價值的影響。

At the time, this action reduced AOCI exposure to interest rates by about 1/3. When transferred to HTM, these positions had a pretax unrealized loss of $873 million which will be amortized back into capital throughout the life of the transferred positions.

當時，此舉將 AOCI 的利率風險降低了約 1/3。當轉移到 HTM 時，這些頭寸有 8.73 億美元的稅前未實現虧損，將在轉移頭寸的整個生命週期內攤銷回資本。

As of the end of the fourth quarter, the balance of the unrealized loss stood at $832 million, a reduction of $42 million. We expect a similar quarterly amortization through 2026.

截至四季度末，未實現虧損餘額8.32億美元，減少0.42億美元。我們預計到 2026 年會有類似的季度攤銷。

The yield on transfer securities remains the same and no losses were recognized as a result of this move. This transfer doesn't have a material effect on our liquidity as we continue to maintain a large available-for-sale portfolio in short-term treasuries and cash at the Fed.

轉讓證券的收益率保持不變，並且沒有因這一舉措而確認損失。這種轉移不會對我們的流動性產生重大影響，因為我們繼續在美聯儲維持大量可供出售的短期國債和現金投資組合。

The changes in unrealized gains and losses in AOCI have an impact on the corporation's annual capital ratios as well as those of our wholly owned banking subsidiaries, but they do not impact regulatory capital ratios.

AOCI 未實現損益的變化對公司的年度資本比率以及我們全資銀行子公司的年度資本比率有影響，但不影響監管資本比率。

Please turn to Slide 10. Our return on tangible equity was 19.2% in the quarter. Regulatory capital levels remain strong. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio increased by 35 basis points in Q4 to 16.4%.

請轉到幻燈片 10。本季度我們的有形資產回報率為 19.2%。監管資本水平依然強勁。我們的普通股一級資本比率在第四季度增加了 35 個基點，達到 16.4%。

In December, we completed our previously announced $231 million ASR, repurchasing approximately 3.2 million shares at an average purchase price of $72.66.

12 月，我們完成了之前宣布的 2.31 億美元 ASR，以 72.66 美元的平均購買價回購了約 320 萬股股票。

To summarize our capital actions last year, we repurchased $631 million common stock or 8.25 million shares via 2 separate ASRs and increased our quarterly dividend by $0.10 per share to $0.55 per share.

總結我們去年的資本行動，我們通過 2 個獨立的 ASR 回購了 6.31 億美元的普通股或 825 萬股，並將我們的季度股息每股增加 0.10 美元至每股 0.55 美元。

Annual book value at quarter end was $44.97 per share, an increase of $6.28 per share from Q3, driven mostly by quarterly net income of $257 million and a favorable variance of $183 million in unrealized losses on security loan for sale. This is partially offset by dividends of $40 million declared in the quarter. Our outlook on capital return has not changed, anchored in our strong regulatory capital ratios. Over time, we expect our regulatory capital ratios to gravitate towards the levels of our mainland peers plus a spread. Given the continued economic uncertainty, we still plan to revisit our future capital actions in the second half of 2023, once we have more clarity around the outlook for interest rate and the economy. With that, I'll turn the call over to Lidio.

季度末的年度賬面價值為每股 44.97 美元，比第三季度每股增加 6.28 美元，這主要是由於季度淨收入 2.57 億美元和待售擔保貸款未實現虧損 1.83 億美元的有利差異。這被本季度宣布的 4000 萬美元股息部分抵消。基於我們強大的監管資本比率，我們對資本回報的展望沒有改變。隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們的監管資本比率將趨向於內地同行的水平加上利差。鑑於經濟持續存在不確定性，一旦我們對利率和經濟前景更加明朗，我們仍計劃在 2023 年下半年重新審視我們未來的資本行動。有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Lidio。

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning. Overall, Popular continues to reflect stable credit quality trends with low levels of net charge-offs and decreasing nonperforming loans. We remain encouraged by the performance of our loan book post-pandemic, specifically, early delinquency, net charge-offs and nonperforming loan formation continue to trend significantly below pre-pandemic levels.

謝謝卡洛斯，早上好。總體而言，Popular 繼續反映穩定的信貸質量趨勢，淨沖銷水平較低，不良貸款減少。我們仍然對大流行後貸款賬簿的表現感到鼓舞，具體而言，提前拖欠、淨註銷和不良貸款形成繼續顯著低於大流行前水平。

We also believe that the improvement in the risk profile of the corporation's loan portfolio positions Popular to operate successfully under difficult economic conditions. We remain vigilant and continue to closely monitor changes in [our] performance and the macroeconomic environment, given potential economic headwinds rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties.

我們還認為，公司貸款組合頭寸風險狀況的改善很受歡迎，可以在困難的經濟條件下成功運營。考慮到潛在的經濟逆風、利率上升和地緣政治不確定性，我們保持警惕並繼續密切關注 [我們] 業績和宏觀經濟環境的變化。

Turning to Slide #11. Nonperforming assets decreased by $18 million to $520 million this quarter, driven by an NPL decrease of $14 million, coupled with an OREO decrease of $4 million. In Puerto Rico, NPLs decreased by $8 million driven by lower mortgage NPLs of $10 million and lower commercial NPLs by $5 million, in part offset by higher auto NPLs by $7 million.

轉到幻燈片 #11。本季度不良資產減少 1800 萬美元至 5.2 億美元，主要受不良貸款減少 1400 萬美元以及奧利奧減少 400 萬美元的推動。在波多黎各，由於抵押貸款不良貸款減少 1000 萬美元和商業不良貸款減少 500 萬美元，不良貸款減少了 800 萬美元，部分被汽車不良貸款增加 700 萬美元所抵消。

In the U.S., NPLs decreased by $6 million, mainly due to a $9 million charge-off on a previously reserved commercial borrower in the health care industry. Compared to the third quarter, NPL inflows, excluding consumer loans, decreased by $3 million, driven by the U.S. health care relationship mentioned previously that was placed in nonaccrual in the prior quarter, offset in part by higher mortgage inflows in Puerto Rico.

在美國，不良貸款減少了 600 萬美元，這主要是由於之前保留的醫療保健行業商業借款人沖銷了 900 萬美元。與第三季度相比，不包括消費貸款在內的不良貸款流入減少了 300 萬美元，這是由於之前提到的美國醫療保健關係在上一季度被置於非應計項目中，部分被波多黎各較高的抵押貸款流入所抵消。

At the end of the quarter, the ratio of NPLs to total loans held in portfolio remained flat at 1.4% compared to the previous quarter.

季末，不良貸款佔組合貸款總額的比例與上一季度持平，為1.4%。

Turning to Slide #12. Net charge-offs amounted to $31 million or an annualized 39 basis points of average loans held in portfolio compared to $18 million or 24 basis points in the prior quarter. The results for the quarter were impacted by the $9 million charge-off on the previously reserved health care relationship in the U.S. Excluding this item, net charge-off ratio was comparable to last quarter at 28 basis points.

轉到幻燈片 #12。淨沖銷額為 3100 萬美元或投資組合中持有的平均貸款的年化 39 個基點，而上一季度為 1800 萬美元或 24 個基點。本季度的業績受到之前在美國保留的醫療保健關係的 900 萬美元沖銷的影響。不包括該項目，淨沖銷比率與上一季度相當，為 28 個基點。

In Puerto Rico, net charge-offs remained stable, increasing by 1.5% quarter-over-quarter mainly driven by higher consumer net charge-offs by $5.5 million, mostly due to the auto portfolio, in part offset by lower mortgage net charge-offs by $4 million. The corporation allowance for credit losses increased by $17 million or 2.5% to $720 million, driven by changes in macroeconomic scenarios, higher loan volumes and changes in credit quality.

在波多黎各，淨沖銷保持穩定，環比增長 1.5%，主要是由於消費者淨沖銷增加了 550 萬美元，主要是由於汽車投資組合，部分被較低的抵押貸款淨沖銷所抵消增加 400 萬美元。受宏觀經濟形勢變化、貸款量增加和信貸質量變化的推動，公司信貸損失準備金增加了 1700 萬美元或 2.5%，達到 7.2 億美元。

The ratio of allowance for credit losses to loans held in portfolio remained stable at 2.25% compared to 2.23% in the previous quarter. The ratio of allowance for credit losses to NPLs held in portfolio was 164% compared to 155% in the prior quarter.

信貸損失準備金與投資組合中持有的貸款的比率穩定在 2.25%，而上一季度為 2.23%。信貸損失撥備與投資組合中持有的不良貸款的比率為 164%，而上一季度為 155%。

The provision for credit losses was an expense of $48 million compared to $40 million in the previous quarter, reflecting the changes in allowance for credit losses and the net charge-off activity. In Puerto Rico, the provision for credit losses was $44 million compared to $29 million in the prior quarter. And in the U.S., the provision was $44 million compared to $11 million in the prior quarter.

信貸損失準備金為 4800 萬美元，而上一季度為 4000 萬美元，反映了信貸損失準備金的變化和淨沖銷活動。在波多黎各，信貸損失準備金為 4400 萬美元，而上一季度為 2900 萬美元。在美國，準備金為 4400 萬美元，而上一季度為 1100 萬美元。

Please turn to Slide #13. As discussed in prior webcast, we leverage Moody's analytics for the U.S. and Puerto Rico economic forecast. Notwithstanding general economic uncertainty, Moody's baseline outlook remains for the U.S. economy to continue recession free. Moody's fourth quarter forecast, however, reflects a slowdown in the economy with lower 2023 GDP growth for both Puerto Rico and the U.S.

請轉到幻燈片 #13。正如之前的網絡廣播中所討論的，我們利用穆迪的分析來預測美國和波多黎各的經濟。儘管總體經濟存在不確定性，但穆迪的基線展望仍然是美國經濟將繼續擺脫衰退。然而，穆迪的第四季度預測反映出經濟放緩，波多黎各和美國 2023 年的 GDP 增長都將放緩。

The baseline scenarios assume a 2023 annualized GDP growth for Puerto Rico and the U.S. of 1.3% and 0.7%, respectively, compared to 2.2% and 1.5% in the previous quarter. The reduction is due to the expected slowdown in the economy as a result of tight monetary policy.

基線情景假設波多黎各和美國 2023 年的年化 GDP 增長率分別為 1.3% 和 0.7%，而上一季度為 2.2% 和 1.5%。減少是由於緊縮的貨幣政策導致經濟放緩。

The 2023 average unemployment rate remained consistent quarter-over-quarter. Our framework for the allowance incorporates multiple economic scenarios. In the fourth quarter, we assigned the highest probability to the baseline scenario, followed closely by the more pessimistic recession scenario, S3. The quarter-over-quarter difference in the allowance for credit losses was driven by the macroeconomic scenarios and portfolio changes, which includes loan growth and changes in credit quality.

2023 年的平均失業率環比保持一致。我們的津貼框架包含多種經濟情景。在第四季度，我們將最高概率分配給基線情景，緊隨其後的是更悲觀的衰退情景 S3。信貸損失準備金的環比差異是由宏觀經濟情景和投資組合變化驅動的，其中包括貸款增長和信貸質量變化。

To summarize, our loan portfolio continues to exhibit strong credit quality metrics in the fourth quarter with low net charge-offs and decreasing nonperforming loans. We remain attentive to the evolving environment but remain encouraged by the post-pandemic performance of our loan book. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Ignacio for his concluding remarks. Thank you.

總而言之，我們的貸款組合在第四季度繼續表現出強勁的信貸質量指標，淨沖銷率低，不良貸款減少。我們仍然關注不斷變化的環境，但仍對我們貸款簿在大流行後的表現感到鼓舞。有了這個，我想把電話轉給伊格納西奧，讓他發表總結性意見。謝謝你。

Thank you, Lidio and Carlos, for your updates. 2022 was an outstanding year for Popular. In addition to record earnings, we achieved strong credit quality, continued customer growth, closed the Evertec transactions, launched our transformation and successfully executed on our capital actions.

謝謝 Lidio 和 Carlos 的更新。 2022 年對 Popular 來說是傑出的一年。除了創紀錄的收益外，我們還實現了良好的信用質量、持續的客戶增長、完成了 Evertec 交易、啟動了轉型並成功執行了我們的資本行動。

Our franchise provides a powerful platform to go beyond serving our customers. It also affords us the opportunity to possibly impact the lives of our colleagues and communities and create value for our shareholders. In 2022, we reached key milestones including participating in the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index issuing our ninth corporate sustainability report. Also following Hurricane Fiona, we provided immediate relief to affected communities and clients and assisted impacted employees.

我們的特許經營權提供了一個強大的平台，可以超越為我們的客戶提供服務。它還使我們有機會影響我們同事和社區的生活，並為我們的股東創造價值。 2022 年，我們實現了重要里程碑，包括參與彭博性別平等指數發布了我們的第九份企業可持續發展報告。同樣在颶風菲奧娜之後，我們立即向受影響的社區和客戶提供救濟，並幫助受影響的員工。

Looking ahead, I am optimistic about the economic outlook in Puerto Rico, our primary market. While we are aware of the macroeconomic headwinds related to inflation and geopolitical risk, we are confident that given the amount of similar support from federal funds, Puerto Rico will continue its growth path, albeit perhaps at a slower pace. 2023 marked Popular's 130th anniversary. Since 1893, we have successfully adopted and led through changing conditions, and we are proud of our history and the legacy that made Popular what it is today, a strong, vibrant organization with deeper rooted values.

展望未來，我對我們的主要市場波多黎各的經濟前景持樂觀態度。雖然我們意識到與通貨膨脹和地緣政治風險相關的宏觀經濟逆風，但我們相信，鑑於聯邦基金提供的類似支持，波多黎各將繼續其增長道路，儘管速度可能會放緩。 2023 年標誌著 Popular 成立 130 週年。自 1893 年以來，我們成功地採用並引領了不斷變化的條件，我們為我們的歷史和遺產感到自豪，正是這些歷史和遺產造就了今天的 Popular，這是一個強大、充滿活力的組織，具有根深蒂固的價值觀。

Leveraging these strengths, we will continue to transform our organization to ensure success for many years to come. This entails meeting the rapidly changing needs of our customers providing our colleagues at workplace where they can thrive, promoting progress in the communities we serve and generate sustainable value for our shareholders. The team is energizing -- is energized and looking forward to another strong year. We are now ready to answer your questions.

利用這些優勢，我們將繼續改造我們的組織，以確保在未來許多年取得成功。這需要滿足客戶快速變化的需求，為我們的同事提供可以茁壯成長的工作場所，促進我們所服務社區的進步，並為我們的股東創造可持續的價值。團隊充滿活力 - 充滿活力並期待著又一個強勁的一年。我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question today comes from the line of Timur Braziler from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）。我們今天的第一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Timur Braziler 系列。

Maybe starting on expenses and the technology and business process transformation that has been laid out, I guess on the back end of that, how should we think about Popular? Is this investment in kind of standing up Evertec and getting that investment kind of up to where you expect it to be? Or is this getting Popular more broadly on pace with the broader group? Or do you expect the back end of '25 for Popular to be an industry leader when it comes to tech and innovation?

也許從費用和已經佈局的技術和業務流程轉型開始，我想在後端，我們應該如何考慮 Popular？這項投資是為了讓 Evertec 站起來並讓投資達到您期望的水平嗎？或者這是否隨著更廣泛的群體而更廣泛地流行？或者，您是否期望 Popular 在技術和創新方面成為行業領導者的 25 世紀後端？

Yes. I think -- this is Ignacio. I think -- thank you for the question. I think Evertec was the initial phase. It's more than just Evertec. Obviously, Evertec has positioned ourselves to be able to begin to transform our technological foundation. So it's more than just taking over the services Evertec was providing for us. That was an essential step. But obviously, our goal is to be able to compete with the different entities that are coming to the market, especially in terms of giving digital options to our clients.

是的。我想——這是 Ignacio。我想——謝謝你的提問。我認為 Evertec 是初始階段。它不僅僅是 Evertec。顯然，Evertec 已將自己定位為能夠開始轉變我們的技術基礎。因此，這不僅僅是接管 Evertec 為我們提供的服務。這是必不可少的一步。但顯然，我們的目標是能夠與進入市場的不同實體競爭，尤其是在為我們的客戶提供數字選擇方面。

So yes, we aspire to be not best-in-class, top quartile in terms of the services and the products we can offer our clients. And Popular has traditionally been a leader in technology in Puerto Rico, and given what's happening now, I think it's more important than ever that we take this initiative on.

所以，是的，我們渴望在我們可以為客戶提供的服務和產品方面成為一流的、一流的四分之一。 Popular 傳統上一直是波多黎各技術的領導者，鑑於現在發生的事情，我認為我們採取這一主動行動比以往任何時候都更加重要。

Okay. And then in terms of investing into this initiative, is the expectation kind of $50 million per year through '25? Or does that ramp higher as you get closer to completion?

好的。然後，就對該計劃的投資而言，到 25 年的預期是每年 5000 萬美元嗎？或者隨著你接近完成，這個斜坡會更高嗎？

Yes. I'm not sure we been able to nail that down at this point in time, Timur, I think the -- what we expect will happen over time is that the expense will shift from the present expense, which is more weighted towards professional services and consultants and people that are trying to help us stand up and set up what we want to do and where we want to go, it will shift to execution.

是的。我不確定我們現在是否能夠及時確定這一點，Timur，我認為 - 我們預計隨著時間的推移會發生的是費用將從目前的費用轉移，這更傾向於專業服務以及顧問和試圖幫助我們站起來並建立我們想做的事情和我們想去的地方的人，它將轉向執行。

So again, we haven't nailed down the number looking forward in the composition of the expense will change into execution and putting in place the systems and the technology that we're designing and selecting right now.

因此，我們還沒有確定預期的費用構成中的數字，這些費用將轉變為執行和實施我們正在設計和選擇的系統和技術。

Okay. Great. And then maybe moving to NII and NIM. It looks like the inflection point happened here in the fourth quarter. Just maybe an outlook for the magnitude of the remaining inflection as those public funds continue to lag already happened in interest rate hikes. And then more importantly, kind of once that lag is complete, what's the outlook for NII and NIM growth from there?

好的。偉大的。然後可能轉向 NII 和 NIM。拐點似乎發生在第四季度。由於這些公共資金繼續滯後，加息已經發生了剩餘拐點幅度的前景。然後更重要的是，一旦這種滯後完成，NII 和 NIM 增長的前景如何？

Yes. The components that led to our margin coming down this quarter, those pressures still exist for the first quarter. And moving forward, you described them properly that the most important one being the increase in cost of public deposits. We -- as we said last quarter, we expect NIM to retake an upward trend in 2023. Exactly when in '23, it happens will depend on the interaction of the drivers. And you know what the drivers are, the rate of loan growth, the rate of change in interest rates and deposit balances are the biggest 3 drivers. And the interaction between those 3 will -- this take exactly what happens in the year, but we do expect NIM to retake an upward trend in the year '23.

是的。導致我們本季度利潤率下降的因素，這些壓力在第一季度仍然存在。展望未來，您正確地描述了它們，最重要的是公共存款成本的增加。我們 - 正如我們上個季度所說，我們預計 NIM 將在 2023 年重新呈現上升趨勢。確切地說，在 23 年，這將取決於驅動因素的相互作用。你知道驅動因素是什麼，貸款增長率、利率變化率和存款餘額是最大的 3 個驅動因素。這三者之間的相互作用將——這正是今年發生的事情，但我們確實預計 NIM 將在 23 年重新呈現上升趨勢。

Okay. Then maybe one last one for me, if I can. Just circling back on fee income, the guide for around [$150] a quarter. I'm just wondering when does that inflect? And when do we start seeing some of the positive attributes from the combination with Evertec and getting those [assets] back in-house?

好的。如果可以的話，也許最後一張給我。只是繞回收費收入，指南每季度約 [150 美元]。我只是想知道什麼時候會發生變化？我們什麼時候開始看到與 Evertec 合併的一些積極屬性並將這些 [資產] 帶回內部？

Well, the biggest driver of the move down from our prior guidance to this '23 guidance is the change in the fact that we don't own the shares in Evertec anymore, number one, and number two, the change in overdraft policies and number three, the change on our practice of setting mortgages that we are not selling anymore. So those are the biggest drivers of that shift down to [$150] per quarter roughly. Obviously, remember, there's always some seasonality in that number. So it goes up and down for different things during the year, but that is the right range.

嗯，從我們之前的指導下調到這個 23 指導的最大驅動力是我們不再擁有 Evertec 的股份這一事實的變化，第一和第二，透支政策和數量的變化第三，改變我們不再出售的抵押貸款的做法。因此，這些是這種轉變的最大驅動力，大約每季度下降到 [150 美元]。顯然，請記住，這個數字總是有一些季節性的。所以它在一年中會因不同的事情而上下波動，但這是正確的範圍。

We continue initiatives on our business initiatives to try to continue to move rates up in different fronts. So hopefully, as those initiatives succeed, we can start moving rates up from the $150 . And some of those are already being designed and implemented if everything works well, we may start seeing some of that in '23. But our best guess right now is $150 per quarter.

我們繼續對我們的業務計劃採取舉措，以嘗試繼續在不同方面提高利率。因此，希望隨著這些舉措的成功，我們可以開始將利率從 150 美元上調。如果一切順利，其中一些已經在設計和實施中，我們可能會在 23 年開始看到其中的一些。但我們現在最好的猜測是每季度 150 美元。

Our next question today comes from the line of Alex Twerdahl from Pipe Sandler.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Pipe Sandler 的 Alex Twerdahl。

I just want to ask some of the questions the team, I just asked a little bit differently. I'm just -- I'm curious, when you put out a target for 2025 why 2025, does that represent sort of an inflection point or an end point in some of these initiatives? Or how can you pick that date for that year?

我只想問團隊的一些問題，我只是問了一些不同的問題。我只是 - 我很好奇，當你提出 2025 年的目標時，為什麼 2025 年是其中一些舉措的轉折點或終點？或者您如何選擇那一年的日期？

This is Ignacio. Basically, we pick that year. The transformation initiative is going to be an ongoing effort. It's the way -- it's going to change the way we work. But obviously, to sort of measure our success, we wanted to take an initial 3-year period, where we see where we're going to be at the 3-year period. And basically, that's how we reached '25. It was kind of arbitrary, but we felt 3 years gave us enough time to implement the measures that we're doing to give them time to bear fruit. So that's how you picked it. But obviously, this is all going -- and obviously, we expect all these efforts to be sustainable, not only sustainable, so it's not like we're going to reach that and stop but keep growing incrementally over time.

這是伊格納西奧。基本上，我們選擇那一年。轉型計劃將是一項持續的努力。這就是方式——它將改變我們的工作方式。但很明顯，為了衡量我們的成功，我們希望採用最初的 3 年期，看看我們將在 3 年期達到的水平。基本上，這就是我們達到 25 歲的方式。這有點武斷，但我們覺得 3 年給了我們足夠的時間來實施我們正在採取的措施，讓他們有時間見效。所以這就是你選擇它的方式。但很明顯，這一切都在進行——而且很明顯，我們希望所有這些努力都是可持續的，不僅是可持續的，所以我們不會達到那個目標然後停下來，而是隨著時間的推移不斷增長。

Right. And then is Popular a leaner institution at that point? Or like what's going to be different? I mean, obviously, every bank is investing in technology meaningfully, but does it allow you to operate with a reduced branch count or sort of what -- like what would we see that would be different at that point?

正確的。那麼 Popular 在那個時候是一個更精簡的機構嗎？或者喜歡什麼會有所不同？我的意思是，很明顯，每家銀行都在有意義地投資於技術，但它是否允許您在減少分支機構數量或類似的情況下運營——就像我們在那個時候看到的會有什麼不同？

I'm not sure branch count is the thing you expect to see the most. I mean that will depend on traffic. We can talk about branches separately. But I think, obviously, we're aiming to do a lot more things digitally, and we're also aiming to do a lot more things self-service. So for example, making our underwriting more automatic, so you don't have to have as much manual intervention, this is across, especially our businesses, but it will apply to everything. But hopefully, we will do -- it will help us with our compliance.

我不確定分支數是您最希望看到的東西。我的意思是這將取決於交通。我們可以單獨談談分支。但我認為，很明顯，我們的目標是以數字方式做更多的事情，我們也打算做更多的自助服務。因此，例如，使我們的承保更加自動化，這樣您就不必進行太多的人工干預，這很普遍，尤其是我們的業務，但它將適用於所有事情。但希望我們會這樣做——這將有助於我們的合規性。

We're investing also in technology, which is very manual today, very people-oriented, so really, I can't give you a specific date, but definitely over time, we should see a lot less manual intervention in many of our processes, be the underwriting, be there compliance, be there everything. So I think that's the goal. The goal is to be more digital, more -- have more self-servers for our clients. And hopefully, over time, that's going to impact us favorably.

我們也在技術上投資，這在今天是非常手動的，非常以人為本，所以真的，我不能給你一個具體的日期，但隨著時間的推移，我們應該會看到我們的許多流程中的人工干預要少得多，成為承銷商，成為合規者，成為一切。所以我認為這就是目標。我們的目標是更加數字化，更多——為我們的客戶提供更多的自助服務器。希望隨著時間的推移，這會對我們產生有利影響。

Okay. Are there any sort of chunks of the initiative that might hit at any certain point in time, you mentioned that a lot of the fees right now are being conducted towards the planning phase, and then there's going to be implementation phase, which maybe is more of a 2024 thing. But are there segments that you kind of -- we can sort of look at over the next couple of -- maybe even more in the near term to sort of get a good sense for how to track the progress.

好的。是否有任何類型的計劃可能會在任何特定時間點發生，你提到現在很多費用都在規劃階段進行，然後是實施階段，這可能更多2024年的事情。但是，您是否有一些細分市場——我們可以在接下來的幾個時間段內進行觀察——也許在短期內甚至更多，以便對如何跟踪進展有一個很好的了解。

Well, I'm not sure within the near term, but one of the things that we obviously are going to want to be able to report to you is what percentage of our loan applications will be digitally enhanced -- and obviously, that we will be able to give you numbers on that. We'll be tracking that. And obviously, that will reflect on efficiencies. We've already implemented some things that are less technology oriented because again, this is more than just technology, it's also process improvement. In terms of how do we make sure that our pricing strategy for products and services, including cash management are coherent across the organization. We expect that to bear fruit pretty much immediately. It honestly would be a game changer, but that will bear fruit immediately.

好吧，我不確定在短期內，但我們顯然希望能夠向您報告的一件事是我們的貸款申請中有多少百分比將被數字化增強——顯然，我們將能夠給你數字。我們會跟踪的。顯然，這將反映在效率上。我們已經實施了一些不太以技術為導向的東西，因為這不僅僅是技術，還是流程改進。就我們如何確保我們的產品和服務定價策略（包括現金管理）在整個組織內保持一致而言。我們預計這會立即見效。老實說，這會改變遊戲規則，但會立即見效。

So we'll be watching very carefully that in terms of revenues that we're getting from cash management. We're going to make important investments in that area. Now the technological area in cash management will take us a few years. I mean when you change your system for cash management, that will be a couple of year process. But we're very hopeful that will derive benefits for us. But again, we will be following and closely tracking that and think about digitally enhanced applications, self-service applications. So those are things that we will be tracking.

因此，我們將非常仔細地觀察我們從現金管理中獲得的收入。我們將在該領域進行重要投資。現在現金管理的技術領域將花費我們幾年的時間。我的意思是，當您更改現金管理系統時，這將是幾年的過程。但我們非常希望這能為我們帶來好處。但是，我們將再次關注並密切跟踪這一點，並考慮數字增強應用程序、自助服務應用程序。所以這些是我們將要跟踪的事情。

Yes. I mean, Alex, one of the things that -- we have a very strong belief that there is still a lot -- a big opportunity for growth in Puerto Rico -- with -- by deepening the relationships we have with our existing clients. So a lot of the effort that's going into transformation is for us to execute on that belief meaning that we will be in a position to provide clients quicker, better service to offer them products that fit their needs in a more efficient way.

是的。我的意思是，亞歷克斯，其中一件事——我們堅信，波多黎各仍然有很多——通過加深我們與現有客戶的關係來實現增長的巨大機會。因此，轉型的很多努力都是為了讓我們執行這種信念，這意味著我們將能夠為客戶提供更快、更好的服務，以更有效的方式為他們提供滿足他們需求的產品。

And with that, we increased the satisfaction of our clients, and that means we have more happy clients, we have more employees that can actually execute with excellence, what we're trying to do as far as client service and all those things add up to positive outcomes as far as the contribution of all those clients to the bank. As Ignacio said, these are incremental efforts. Some small things will start happening in a few months. Other things will start happening next year. So the bigger things are technology-dependent, will probably be sort of a bit back-ended, because we have to maintain investment and implement the systems to achieve what we want to achieve, but we expect that there will be some quick wins starting soon.

有了這些，我們提高了客戶的滿意度，這意味著我們有更多滿意的客戶，我們有更多實際上可以卓越執行的員工，我們在客戶服務方面正在努力做的事情，所有這些加起來就所有這些客戶對銀行的貢獻而言，取得積極成果。正如 Ignacio 所說，這些都是漸進式的努力。幾個月後會開始發生一些小事。其他事情將在明年開始發生。所以更大的事情是依賴於技術的，可能會有點落後，因為我們必須保持投資和實施系統來實現我們想要實現的目標，但我們預計很快就會有一些速效.

Yes. Add to what Carlos was saying, I mean one of the big initiatives is designed at what we call personalization and segmentation. And therefore -- and that involves a lot of investment in our data abilities also. But the idea is that we'll be able to offer our clients products that they need faster. As you know, we have, by far, the largest client base in Puerto Rico, both retail and commercial. And if we can just penetrate that market, the cost of -- our cost of acquisition will be much below any possible competitors. So we are going to put a lot of effort to the personalization and segmentation.

是的。補充卡洛斯所說的，我的意思是其中一項重大舉措是針對我們所說的個性化和細分而設計的。因此——這也涉及對我們數據能力的大量投資。但我們的想法是，我們將能夠更快地為客戶提供他們需要的產品。如您所知，到目前為止，我們在波多黎各擁有最大的零售和商業客戶群。如果我們能夠進入那個市場，我們的收購成本將遠低於任何可能的競爭對手。因此，我們將在個性化和細分方面投入大量精力。

And the last comment for you to get a sense of what we're talking about, I believe we think we have to build the best digital banking offering in Puerto Rico already. But what we're seeking is to be able to provide more products and services to our clients through that offering and to allow us to roll out new offerings a lot faster than we can do it now. So we're changing the architecture of what is a market-leading digital offering so that we can be a lot more effective in providing more and new services quicker to our clients than we are today. So the client will never see the change in back-end architecture, but they will see the more efficient and bigger offering once we've done that.

最後讓您了解我們在談論什麼的評論，我相信我們認為我們已經在波多黎各建立了最好的數字銀行產品。但我們正在尋求的是能夠通過該產品為我們的客戶提供更多的產品和服務，並允許我們比現在更快地推出新產品。因此，我們正在改變市場領先的數字產品的架構，以便我們能夠比現在更有效地為客戶提供更多新服務。因此，客戶永遠不會看到後端架構的變化，但一旦我們做到了，他們就會看到更高效、更大的產品。

Okay. And then with the 14% RoTCE, obviously, there's a lot of pieces to that, and it could mean a lot of different things. So can you give us some of the assumptions on capital levels, or like anything else to kind of help us really figure out what it actually means for profitability?

好的。然後是 14% 的 RoTCE，顯然，其中有很多部分，它可能意味著很多不同的東西。那麼你能給我們一些關於資本水平的假設，或者像其他任何東西一樣幫助我們真正弄清楚它對盈利能力的實際意義嗎？

No. At this point in time, we've chosen that one because it's sort of encompasses the result of everything, Alex. And there -- you are correct, there's a lot of pieces that compose that. We are not in a position to talk about the pieces specifically yet or right now. But again, we think this is the most comprehensive nature of everything that we do. So we've chosen to hang our head on that one for the moment. But at this point in time, we haven't disclosed the components that we'll gather there. There's a lot of things that probably can change and underweight as well.

不，此時此刻，我們選擇了那個，因為它包含了一切的結果，亞歷克斯。在那裡 - 你是對的，有很多作品組成了它。我們還不能或現在無法具體談論這些作品。但同樣，我們認為這是我們所做的一切中最全面的性質。所以我們選擇暫時擱置這一點。但此時此刻，我們還沒有透露我們將在那裡收集的組件。有很多事情可能會改變，也可能會減重。

Okay. And then just one final one for me before I get back in the queue. You gave us the increase in the government deposits in the first quarter of 120 basis point assuming we get 2 more hikes, where do those peak out? I mean can you just spell it out for us?

好的。然後在我回到隊列中之前給我最後一個。假設我們再加息 2 次，你給了我們政府存款在第一季度增加 120 個基點，這些會在哪里達到峰值？我的意思是你能為我們拼寫出來嗎？

I'm afraid, where they peak out, you'll have to ask the Fed. If it's true that they go down to more 25 basis points-- and that's it. And then they sit tight, then a quarter after that, you'll see [government] passes off 50 basis points more expenses. But it really is market-linked, so depend on the Fed. Again, our best guess of the Fed increases will give us 120 basis points. Again, roughly, if it's still more 25 basis points, that will end up being about 50 basis points higher a quarter after that. And once if the rates start moving in the other direction, then we'll see that we start seeing the benefit of the quarter after that. So I would love to be able to answer your question, but I can't read the mind of the Fed very well.

恐怕，他們在哪里達到頂峰，你得問問美聯儲。如果它們真的降到了 25 個基點以上——就是這樣。然後他們坐穩了，然後在那之後的一個季度，你會看到 [政府] 減少了 50 個基點的開支。但它確實與市場掛鉤，因此取決於美聯儲。同樣，我們對美聯儲加息的最佳猜測將為我們提供 120 個基點。同樣，粗略地說，如果它仍然超過 25 個基點，那麼在那之後的一個季度最終將高出約 50 個基點。一旦利率開始朝另一個方向移動，那麼我們就會看到我們在那之後的那個季度開始看到好處。所以我很想回答你的問題，但我不能很好地讀懂美聯儲的想法。

But they do peak out below, I mean, last time they peaked at 125 basis points, but below where the Fed peaked out. Is that a reasonable assumption for this tightening cycle?

但它們確實低於峰值，我的意思是，上次它們達到 125 個基點的峰值，但低於美聯儲的峰值。對於這個緊縮週期，這是一個合理的假設嗎？

It is timing. I mean we -- ultimately, the question you're asking is what's the spread that we make on the deposit. We have never answered that question purposely, and we're not going to start today. But obviously, we do make a positive spread on these deposits.

這是時機。我的意思是我們 - 最終，你要問的問題是我們在存款上的利差是多少。我們從來沒有特意回答過這個問題，我們今天也不會開始。但顯然，我們確實對這些存款產生了正利差。

(Operator Instructions) Next question today comes from the line of Kelly Motta from KBW.

（操作員說明）今天的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Kelly Motta。

I may be asking the government deposits question a little bit differently. I appreciate the color around margin and how you expect that to -- I believe, it start to inflect at some point this year. Does that commentary there require a certain amount of roll-off of the government deposits? Or is that irrespective of levels? Just trying to get a sense of how much that may be a driver of that inflecting NIM you speak of?

我問政府存款的問題可能有點不同。我很欣賞保證金周圍的顏色以及你對它的期望——我相信，它會在今年的某個時候開始發生變化。那裡的評論是否需要滾存一定數量的政府存款？還是不分等級？只是想了解一下這在多大程度上可能是您所說的 NIM 的驅動因素？

No. That commentary incorporates the outlook we expressed on the balance of the current deposits that they will remain between $13 million and $15 million for the year. Again, it's not a constant $13 million to $15 million. They're probably going to be slightly higher than that in the first half of the year and then maybe slightly lower than that in the second half of the year. But that is what is incorporated in the components of that commentary.

沒有。該評論包含了我們對活期存款餘額的展望，即今年它們將保持在 1300 萬美元至 1500 萬美元之間。同樣，這不是恆定的 1300 萬到 1500 萬美元。他們可能會比今年上半年略高，然後可能會略低於下半年。但這正是該評論的組成部分所包含的內容。

Appreciate it. And just a point of clarification on your expense guidance that $1.87 billion that you gave, I just want to confirm that includes the innovation stuff that you're doing and that $50 million is on top of that $1.87 billion.

欣賞它。只是澄清一下您提供的 18.7 億美元的費用指導，我只想確認這包括您正在做的創新工作，並且 5000 萬美元是在 18.7 億美元之上。

That number includes the $50 million.

這個數字包括 5000 萬美元。

Yes, definitely incorporated within it.

是的，絕對包含在其中。

Okay. Excellent. Maybe last one for me. I appreciate the time. It is on capital. I know you reiterated that you plan to revisit your capital plans in the second half of this year. Wondering if that -- kind of your decision to do that is there's a certain level of TCE where you would feel comfortable stepping back in. Is there any sort of parameters around that you'd be willing to share? And -- that's part one.

好的。出色的。也許最後一個適合我。我很感激時間。這是在資本上。我知道你重申你計劃在今年下半年重新審視你的資本計劃。想知道您是否決定這樣做是因為有一定級別的 TCE，您會感到很舒服地重新加入。是否有任何類型的參數您願意分享？而且 - 這是第一部分。

And then part 2 of the question is, by second half of the year? Do you think maybe by sometime in July, given the accretion back on AOCI, is that kind of the timing we're looking at here?

然後問題的第 2 部分是，到今年下半年？考慮到 AOCI 的回升，您是否認為可能在 7 月的某個時候，我們在這裡看到的就是這種時機？

Yes. So we try answer both questions. Okay, there is no TCE target that would trigger us to do something or not do something. What -- I think, if anything, what will be more important on how we think about this is, again, getting a more clear consensus of what's happening with the economy and what's going to happen with interest rates moving forward.

是的。所以我們試著回答這兩個問題。好的，沒有 TCE 目標會觸發我們做某事或不做某事。什麼 - 我認為，如果有的話，對於我們如何看待這個問題更重要的是，再次對經濟正在發生的事情以及利率向前發展將會發生什麼達成更明確的共識。

So I think those 2 components are probably more important. There's -- again, there's no magic number of TCE that will get us there, as Ignacio said last quarter. Our best guess is that we'll get that clarity we're looking for in the summer, and that's where our comment comes from the second half of the year. But if that clarity comes in May, then we're a couple of months ahead, if that clarity comes in September, we may be a couple of months behind. But no specific target, the outlook and there being consensus outlook on the economy and interest rates are probably the 2 most important inputs into the timing of our revisiting of the capital plan. Again, the overall view of capital is unchanged. We are only slightly adjusting the timing here and when we execute, not our intent of what we want to do.

所以我認為這兩個組成部分可能更重要。正如 Ignacio 上個季度所說，再一次，沒有神奇的 TCE 數量可以讓我們到達那裡。我們最好的猜測是，我們將在夏季獲得我們正在尋找的清晰度，而這正是我們下半年發表評論的地方。但是，如果這種情況在 5 月份出現，那麼我們就會提前幾個月，如果這種情況在 9 月份出現，我們可能會落後幾個月。但沒有具體目標、前景以及對經濟和利率的共識前景可能是我們重新審視資本計劃的兩個最重要的輸入。再次，資本的整體看法沒有改變。我們只是稍微調整了執行時間和執行時間，而不是我們想要做的事情的意圖。

The next question today comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

今天的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Carlos, on the OCI or AOCI, I should say. When you look at it, you had in the available-for-sale portfolio, about $1.8 billion of unrealized losses. Can you share with us what kind of interest rate environment would we need to see for that number to fall materially from here.

卡洛斯，關於 OCI 或 AOCI，我應該說。當你看它時，你在可供出售的投資組合中有大約 18 億美元的未實現損失。您能否與我們分享我們需要看到什麼樣的利率環境才能使該數字從這里大幅下降。

Lower.

降低。

I agree with that.

我同意這一點。

No. I mean the portfolio has about a 2.8-year duration. So that can give you some sensitivity on the entire piece, right? So you could probably run some calculations based on the duration and the size of the portfolio should give you an idea of, roughly speaking, where the unrealized could move.

不，我的意思是投資組合的期限約為 2.8 年。這樣可以讓你對整件作品有一些敏感度，對吧？因此，您可能可以根據投資組合的持續時間和規模進行一些計算，粗略地說，您應該可以了解未實現的可能移動的位置。

Yes. The -- obviously, the as (inaudible) said, the portfolio is [so] on the short end. So we're the biggest bang for the buck. You'll probably get short-end rates -- and intermediate rates moved lower. I think (inaudible) only happy if the 30 year comes down, but the 30 year does not have big effect on our AOCI as the shorter and into medium terms too.

是的。 - 顯然，正如（聽不清）所說，投資組合是 [so] 在短期內。所以我們是性價比最高的。你可能會得到短期利率——中間利率走低。我認為（聽不清）只有 30 年結束時才會高興，但 30 年對我們的 AOCI 沒有太大影響，因為短期和中期也是如此。

Yes. The other thing is there's a significant amount of bonds that mature every quarter. So the portfolio is laddered out all the way up to 6 years. In fact, we probably have about $1 billion or so that mature every given quarter. So that also shows the duration as time passes.

是的。另一件事是每個季度都有大量債券到期。因此，投資組合一直延伸到 6 年。事實上，每個給定季度我們可能有大約 10 億美元左右的資金到期。所以這也顯示了隨著時間流逝的持續時間。

Got it. And even though -- I'm sorry, go ahead.

知道了。即使 - 對不起，請繼續。

And those get reinvested at current rates.

那些以當前利率進行再投資。

Right, right. No. The reason I asked is that I noticed that the agency portion of the portfolio, which has the largest unrealized loss has a maturity of 7.5 years. And even though I know the total AFS is under 3, I didn't know if that meant that part of the portfolio, the longer end of the curve is something we're going to watch.

是的是的。不，我問的原因是我注意到投資組合中未實現損失最大的代理部分的期限為 7.5 年。儘管我知道總 AFS 低於 3，但我不知道這是否意味著投資組合的那一部分，曲線的較長端是我們要關注的。

Yes. That piece -- that portion of the portfolio is mostly agency pass-throughs. So we put the weighted average life of the instruments. It's a mix of 15-year and 30-year mortgage-backed securities. That has a slightly different basis than treasury. So that will be a function of where intermediate rates move as well as where the mortgage back to treasury basis moves as well. So we had some relief for that in the fourth quarter. If those trends continue, that would be a positive news for that. But again, it will all be subject to where the market sees the risks.

是的。那部分——投資組合的那部分主要是代理傳遞。所以我們把儀器的加權平均壽命。它是 15 年期和 30 年期抵押貸款支持證券的組合。這與財政部的基礎略有不同。因此，這將取決於中間利率的走勢以及抵押貸款回到國債基礎的走勢。因此，我們在第四季度對此有所緩解。如果這些趨勢繼續下去，那將是一個好消息。但同樣，這一切都將取決於市場對風險的看法。

Very good. And then following up on the technology commentary that you guys gave us, Ignacio, I think you said in your prepared remarks or actually in response to a question that Popular has traditionally been a leader in technology in Puerto Rico. So it's somewhat surprising that this overhaul is coming, but be it as it is, were you guys seeing -- or are you seeing evidence that other entrants are making headway against your core customers and you're starting to lose some of these customers? Or what was the real -- or is that part of the reason for the big spend that's coming?

非常好。然後跟進你們給我們的技術評論，伊格納西奧，我想你在準備好的發言中說過，或者實際上是在回答一個問題，即 Popular 傳統上一直是波多黎各技術的領導者。因此，這次大修即將到來有點令人驚訝，但不管怎樣，你們是否看到了——或者你們是否看到其他進入者正在對你們的核心客戶取得進展而你們開始失去其中一些客戶的證據？或者什麼是真實的 - 或者這是即將到來的大筆支出的部分原因？

No, I think that when I say we are a traditional been a leader in the technology, that's true, but we feel the world is changing much faster. And we may have been a little bit behind where we normally would be on this kind of a curve.

不，我認為當我說我們是傳統的技術領導者時，這是真的，但我們覺得世界變化得更快。而且我們可能已經落後於通常處於這種曲線上的位置。

We haven't lost customers yet, but we're not going to wait to lose customers. We are seeing -- there are certain areas where you see more U.S. entrants, for example, credit cards, where you see more of the U.S. issuers coming in with features and different things that we may be a little bit behind, but really, we want to get ahead of this. We don't want to leave ourselves open to future digital entrants taking away our clients.

我們還沒有失去客戶，但我們不會等著失去客戶。我們看到 - 在某些領域你會看到更多的美國進入者，例如信用卡，你會看到更多的美國發行人進入我們可能有點落後的功能和不同的東西，但實際上，我們想要領先於此。我們不想讓未來的數字進入者搶走我們的客戶。

So basically, we think -- we really think that if we offer a top-notch digital experience and you combine that with our branch network, and you combine that with the diverse services we offer our client that we have an unbeatable solution. If we fall in any of those areas, then we could become vulnerable, and we're not about to let that happen. So yes, we know that technology is a tough game and we may not be able to match the investments of some of the bigger, huge banks. But we have to stay at least given our clients what they expect in today's world. And our clients in Puerto Rico are just like anywhere else. They expect a better digital experience, and they expect a more personalized digital experience. And we're going to work hard to give them that.

所以基本上，我們認為 - 我們真的認為，如果我們提供一流的數字體驗，並將其與我們的分支網絡相結合，並將其與我們為客戶提供的多樣化服務相結合，我們將擁有無與倫比的解決方案。如果我們落入這些領域中的任何一個，那麼我們可能會變得脆弱，我們不會讓這種情況發生。所以是的，我們知道技術是一場艱難的遊戲，我們可能無法與一些更大、更大的銀行的投資相匹敵。但我們必須至少滿足客戶對當今世界的期望。我們在波多黎各的客戶與其他任何地方一樣。他們期待更好的數字體驗，他們期待更個性化的數字體驗。我們將努力為他們提供這些。

To give some more color on Ignacio's comment, Gerard, when I talked about our data offered to our clients, I said it was market-leading, which it is and I spoke about the back end, the architecture of it. We find ourselves wanting to roll out more things at a faster speed than our present architecture allows us to do. So again, what we're doing is doing a lot of work in the back end. The client will never even knew this was happening, but it will -- the client will feel it because the speed at which we'll be able to offer new things and more things will go up, so that is the kind of thing we're talking about. It is improving the core of our technology. And again, the client may not see that in their phone app but they'll see it in our capacity to offer them more personalized offerings, more personalized services and new services faster than we can do today.

為了給伊格納西奧的評論增添更多色彩，杰拉德，當我談到我們提供給客戶的數據時，我說它是市場領先的，它是，我談到了後端，它的架構。我們發現自己想要以比當前架構允許的更快的速度推出更多的東西。因此，我們正在做的是在後端做大量工作。客戶甚至永遠不會知道這正在發生，但它會 - 客戶會感覺到它，因為我們能夠提供新事物和更多事物的速度將會上升，所以這就是我們的那種事情'重新談論。它正在改進我們的技術核心。再一次，客戶可能不會在他們的手機應用程序中看到這一點，但他們會在我們的能力中看到它，以比我們今天更快的速度為他們提供更個性化的產品、更個性化的服務和新服務。

Very good. And then, Lidio, you mentioned you gave us some insights into credit and credit obviously, has been strong for you folks and your peers. Two questions. One, you gave us some of the assumptions, I think, in the Moody's outlook on real GDP growth. What kind of unemployment rates are you factoring in? I think you said they're constant, but what are those numbers?

非常好。然後，Lidio，你提到你給了我們一些關於信用和信用的見解，顯然，對你們和你的同齡人來說很重要。兩個問題。第一，你給了我們穆迪對實際 GDP 增長前景的一些假設。你考慮了什麼樣的失業率？我想你說過它們是恆定的，但這些數字是多少？

And two, are there any sectors within the portfolio that you're currently spending more time really focusing on just to make sure nothing gets tripped up if we go into some sort of shallow recession.

第二，投資組合中是否有您目前花費更多時間真正關注的領域，以確保在我們進入某種淺度衰退時不會被絆倒。

We have on a yearly basis, you have on Page 13 of the deck, the assumptions for unemployment rates both for Puerto Rico and the U.S. under the baseline, stronger growth and recession scenarios. So I will leave you to look at those as to what's the second part of the question? I'm sorry, Gerard?

我們每年都有，你在甲板的第 13 頁上，假設波多黎各和美國的失業率在基線、更強勁的增長和衰退情景下。所以我會讓你看看問題的第二部分是什麼？對不起，杰拉德？

That's okay. And -- and just what parts of the portfolio are you guys really focused on to make sure that if we do go into a shallow recession, you're prepared to handle it.

沒關係。而且——你們真正關注的是投資組合的哪些部分，以確保如果我們真的陷入淺度衰退，你們已經準備好應對。

I would say small business lending is an area of focus. I mean we continue to be pleased how the Popular has continued to behave post-pandemic or is an area where increasing interest rating, inflationary pressures, increases in energy prices could have a potential higher impact than other sectors. I think it's important to highlight that one area where we see a lot of press in the U.S. in terms of office space, we don't have any significant exposure to the office space in Puerto Rico to the U.S.

我想說小企業貸款是一個重點領域。我的意思是，我們繼續感到高興的是，大眾在大流行後的表現如何，或者是一個利率上升、通脹壓力、能源價格上漲可能比其他行業產生更大影響的領域。我認為重要的是要強調我們在美國看到很多關於辦公空間的媒體報導的一個領域，我們在波多黎各的辦公空間對美國沒有任何重大影響。

The next question today is a follow-up from Alex Twerdahl from Piper Sandler.

今天的下一個問題是來自 Piper Sandler 的 Alex Twerdahl 的跟進。

I just wanted to ask for the loan growth that you guys are seeing, what kind of yields new production is coming on in the various categories?

我只是想問問你們看到的貸款增長，各種類別的新產品產生什麼樣的收益？

Yes. I don't have that number right now, Alex. We can try to dig it out, but I don't have that off the top of my head or in my notes, my apologies. You can see that the overall yield of loans -- the overall loan yield of our book did go up 31 basis points several days in the quarter. So obviously, we are originating our new vintages (inaudible) at higher rate, but I don't have the answer to your question. We'll get back.

是的。我現在沒有那個號碼，亞歷克斯。我們可以試著把它挖出來，但我沒有把它放在我的頭頂或我的筆記中，我很抱歉。你可以看到貸款的總收益率——我們賬簿的總貸款收益率在本季度的幾天裡確實上升了 31 個基點。很明顯，我們正在以更高的速度生產新年份（聽不清），但我無法回答您的問題。我們會回來的。

Okay. Are you able to give us a little bit more color, like if you look at the commercial growth, sort of the percentage or just a rough breakdown of what might be the larger corporate customer that's based off of sulfur and we saw some press releases this quarter on sort of pricing that maybe we could apply to that in Puerto Rico versus what might be more tied to prime?

好的。你能給我們更多的顏色嗎，比如你看看商業增長，某種百分比，或者只是粗略地細分一下可能是基於硫磺的更大的企業客戶，我們看到了一些新聞稿四分之一的定價，也許我們可以應用於波多黎各的定價，而不是可能與 prime 更相關的定價？

Yes, the -- and Lidio, maybe able to correct me, the take-up of sulfur in Puerto Rico has been pretty slow. So I think big picture assumptions for the moment, Alex, is that whatever part of our book is slowing, it's still linked to the old floating rates. Again, the pickup of sulfur has been slow so far.

是的，Lidio，也許可以糾正我的錯誤，波多黎各的硫吸收速度非常緩慢。所以我認為目前的大局假設是，亞歷克斯，無論我們書中的任何部分正在放緩，它仍然與舊的浮動利率有關。同樣，到目前為止，硫的吸收一直很緩慢。

Okay. And then I just wanted to clarify your comments on the timing for capital return. It sounded like you guys go through this process every year where you engage the Fed and then a quarter later or 4 months later, you wind up actually telling us what you guys have all decided for the capital return. Is it the second half of this year that you gave the Fed? Or do you intend to have an announcement in the second half of the year.

好的。然後我只想澄清你對資本回報時間的評論。聽起來你們每年都要經歷這個過程，你與美聯儲接觸，然後在一個季度或 4 個月後，你最終實際上告訴我們你們都為資本回報做出了什麼決定。你給美聯儲的是今年下半年嗎？或者你打算在下半年有一個公告。

Yes. I think our plan would be to do both, we would engage the Fed at some point, but the announcement, I think when we talk about second half of the year would be an announcement.

是的。我認為我們的計劃是兩者都做，我們會在某個時候與美聯儲接觸，但我認為當我們談論今年下半年時，這將是一個公告。

Okay. So you engage the Fed at some point in the next couple of months. And realistically, July, we can still expect a capital update.

好的。所以你在接下來幾個月的某個時候與美聯儲接觸。實際上，7 月，我們仍然可以期待資本更新。

What we -- we will make the decision of what we want to do once we have clarity on the outlook for interest rates and the economy, Alex. So that is the starting point. So again, our guess is that, that point in time will come in the summer and that we ended up talking about the second half of the year. So that's the starting point. And from there, we would do our modeling and discuss the opportunities on the alternatives with our regulator, we would have to decide how we want to execute anything we want to execute.

亞歷克斯，一旦我們對利率和經濟前景有了清晰的認識，我們就會決定我們想做什麼。這就是起點。所以，我們的猜測是，那個時間點會在夏天到來，我們最終談論的是下半年。這就是起點。從那裡開始，我們將進行建模並與我們的監管機構討論替代方案的機會，我們將不得不決定我們要如何執行我們想要執行的任何事情。

We want to revisit what has been our practice in the past of having very structured every January, we have an announcement, we may choose to change that moving forward. So we're going to -- again, the underlying thing we want to do that has not changed, which is to move in the direction of our mainland peers as a buffer, but exactly how we execute that will be revalued and we may decide to execute in a different path than we did in the past, okay?

我們想重新審視過去每年一月的結構化做法，我們有一個公告，我們可能會選擇改變這種做法。所以我們要 - 再次強調，我們想要做的基本事情沒有改變，那就是朝著我們大陸同行的方向移動作為緩衝，但我們將重新評估我們如何執行它，我們可能會決定以與過去不同的方式執行，好嗎？

So don't assume we'll be back to the (inaudible) announcement and that's it for the year. Again, we may choose to manage our capital return to slightly different moving forward. If and when we choose to make a change, obviously, we'll discuss over the market.

所以不要假設我們會回到（聽不清）公告，今年就是這樣。同樣，我們可能會選擇將我們的資本回報管理為略有不同的向前發展。如果以及何時我們選擇做出改變，顯然，我們將在市場上進行討論。

Okay. But it is the same process that you've gone through. There's nothing changing about how often are the regularity that you would engage the Fed to include in this. And I guess the question that I got from a lot of investors after last quarter is why not go through the process as normal last year and then get approval but just say we're not going to implement it as quickly. Maybe we'll wait and not do an ASR. But we have it and the Fed is comfortable with our capital levels and all these things that seem exceedingly healthy from the surface.

好的。但這是你經歷過的相同過程。您要求美聯儲將其納入其中的規律性沒有任何變化。我想我在上個季度後從很多投資者那裡得到的問題是，為什麼去年不像往常一樣完成這個過程然後獲得批准，只是說我們不會盡快實施它。也許我們會等待而不做 ASR。但我們擁有它，美聯儲對我們的資本水平和所有這些表面上看起來非常健康的事情感到滿意。

You are describing some of the alternatives that we are considering as we revisit how we want to do this. I always caution everybody, when we speak about this, the Fed does not give conditional approvals to anything. They will only approve things when you request an approval and they will not approve things as long as things work out in the future this way.

當我們重新審視我們想要如何做到這一點時，您正在描述我們正在考慮的一些替代方案。我總是提醒大家，當我們談論這個時，美聯儲不會對任何事情給予有條件的批准。你要批了他才批，以後只要這樣他就不批。

So again, we try to manage the Fed, the best way we can. I think over the last 4 or 5 years, we've been pretty effective in our dealing with the Fed, and we'll try to continue that. But some banks manage it differently. Some banks have quarterly capital plans. I discussed with the Fed instead of a yearly capital plan, which has been our practice in the past. Again, we want to go and revisit all those alternatives, Alex, to be frank with you. So we'll be doing that when we reengage.

因此，我們再次嘗試以最好的方式管理美聯儲。我認為在過去的 4 或 5 年裡，我們在與美聯儲打交道方面一直非常有效，我們將努力繼續這樣做。但有些銀行的管理方式不同。一些銀行有季度資本計劃。我與美聯儲討論，而不是年度資本計劃，這是我們過去的做法。再次，我們想重新審視所有這些備選方案，亞歷克斯，坦率地說。因此，當我們重新參與時，我們將這樣做。

Again, we think what we did in the past has been pretty successful for us as far as dealing with the Fed. We will analyze if there is a path that is even better for us and for our shareholders moving forward.

同樣，我們認為就與美聯儲打交道而言，我們過去所做的對我們來說非常成功。我們將分析是否有一條對我們和我們的股東更好的前進道路。

The final question today is a follow-up question from Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

今天的最後一個問題是來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy 的後續問題。

Actually, I didn't pull myself out of the queue. I didn't understand the instructions. I'm all set, Thank you Carlos.

實際上，我並沒有讓自己退出隊列。我不明白指示。我已經準備好了，謝謝卡洛斯。

Thank you, Gerard.

謝謝你，杰拉德。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. So I'd like to pass the conference over to Ignacio Alvarez for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

今天的問答環節到此結束。因此，我想將會議轉交給 Ignacio Alvarez，聽取任何閉幕詞。請繼續。

Okay. Thank you for joining us today and for your questions. We look forward to updating you on our progress in April. Thank you.

好的。感謝您今天加入我們並提出問題。我們期待在 4 月份向您通報我們的進展情況。謝謝你。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。