Popular Inc (BPOP) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Popular Incorporated fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Elliott, and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions) I'd like to hand over to Paul Cardillo. Please go ahead.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Popular Incorporated 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫艾利歐特,今天我將負責協調您的通話。(操作說明)我把工作交給保羅‧卡迪洛。請繼續。

  • Paul Cardillo - Investor Relations Officer

    Paul Cardillo - Investor Relations Officer

  • Good morning and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today is our President and CEO, Javier Ferrer; our CFO, Jorge Garcia; and our CRO, Lidio Soriano. They will review our results for the full year and fourth quarter and then answer your questions. Other members of our management team will also be available during the Q&A session.

    早安,感謝各位的參與。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Javier Ferrer;我們的財務長 Jorge Garcia;以及我們的首席營收長 Lidio Soriano。他們將審查我們全年和第四季度的業績,然後回答您的問題。管理團隊的其他成員也將在問答環節中出席。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding Popular, such as projections of revenue, earnings, credit quality, expenses, taxes, and capital, as well as statements regarding Popular's plans and objectives.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位,在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會對 Popular 做出一些前瞻性陳述,例如對收入、盈利、信用質量、支出、稅收和資本的預測,以及對 Popular 的計劃和目標的陳述。

  • These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth within today's earnings release and our SEC filings. You may find today's press release and our SEC filings on our webpage at popular.com.

    這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期,但存在風險和不確定性。可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異的因素已在今天的獲利報告和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中列出。您可以在我們的網頁 popular.com 上找到今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

  • I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Javier Ferrer.

    現在我將把電話轉交給我們的總裁兼執行長哈維爾·費雷爾。

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Paul, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 4. In 2025, we delivered results that reflect the strength of our franchise and the continuous stability of the Puerto Rico economy. Our annual net income of $833 million increased by $219 million, or 36% compared to 2024. Our strong fourth quarter loan growth helped bring our total growth for the year to $2.2 billion, an increase of 6%. Banco Popular generated loan growth across most business segments, led by commercial loans. Popular Bank achieved growth in commercial and construction loans. Credit quality generally remained stable throughout 2025, aside from a couple of isolated commercial credit relationships in the third quarter. For the year, net charge-offs decreased by 16 basis points to 52 basis points.

    謝謝你,保羅,大家早安。請翻到第4張投影片。2025年,我們所取得的業績反映了我們特許經營的實力和波多黎各經濟的持續穩定。我們的年度淨收入為 8.33 億美元,比 2024 年增加了 2.19 億美元,增幅達 36%。第四季強勁的貸款成長使我們全年的總成長達到 22 億美元,成長了 6%。Banco Popular 在大多數業務領域都實現了貸款成長,其中商業貸款表現最為突出。Popular Bank在商業貸款和建築貸款方面實現了成長。2025 年全年信貸品質整體維持穩定,僅在第三季出現了一些個別商業信貸關係。本年度淨沖銷額下降 16 個基點至 52 個基點。

  • Our capital levels are strong, ending the year with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 15.7%. Our tangible book value per share of $82.65 increased by 21% year over year, primarily due to lower unrealized losses on investment securities and net income for the year, offsetting part by dividends and our share repurchase activity. We repurchased approximately $500 million in common stock during 2025. Since resuming buybacks in the third quarter of 2024, we have repurchased approximately $720 million worth of common stock. We continue to believe that our shares are attractive at current prices. Additionally, in the fourth quarter, we increased our quarterly common stock dividend by $0.05 to $0.75 per share.

    我們的資本水準強勁,年底普通股一級資本適足率為 15.7%。我們的每股有形帳面價值為 82.65 美元,年增 21%,主要原因是投資證券未實現損失和年度淨收入減少,部分被股息和股票回購活動抵銷。2025年,我們回購了約5億美元的普通股。自 2024 年第三季恢復股票回購以來,我們已回購了價值約 7.2 億美元的普通股。我們仍然認為,以目前的價格來看,我們的股票具有吸引力。此外,在第四季度,我們將季度普通股股息提高了 0.05 美元,達到每股 0.75 美元。

  • Please turn to slide 5, where we share highlights that reflect our strong operating performance in the fourth quarter. We reported net income of $234 million, an EPS of $3.53, an increase of $23 million and $0.38 per share, respectively. Our results were driven by higher net interest income and expanding net interest margin, strong loan growth, and importantly, lower operating expenses. Our credit metrics were stable in the quarter, with lower NPLs and net charge-offs. We are very pleased to have exceeded a 14% ROTCE for the quarter and a 13% ROTCE for the full year. We demonstrated significant progress in our efforts to improve our sustainable returns towards our 14% objective.

    請翻到第 5 頁,我們分享了反映我們第四季強勁營運績效的亮點。我們公佈的淨收入為 2.34 億美元,每股收益為 3.53 美元,分別比上年同期增長 2,300 萬美元和 0.38 美元。我們的業績得益於更高的淨利息收入和不斷擴大的淨利差、強勁的貸款成長,以及更重要的,更低的營運費用。本季我們的信貸指標維持穩定,不良貸款率和淨沖銷額均有所下降。我們非常高興本季 ROTCE 超過 14%,全年 ROTCE 超過 13%。我們在提高可持續回報率方面取得了顯著進展,朝著 14% 的目標邁進。

  • Please turn to slide 6. As of the end of the fourth quarter, business activity in Puerto Rico continued to be solid, as reflected by federal trends in total employment, consumer spending, construction, tourism, and other key economic data.

    請翻到第6張投影片。截至第四季末,波多黎各的商業活動依然穩健,聯邦政府公佈的總就業、消費支出、建築業、旅遊業和其他關鍵經濟數據也反映了這一點。

  • The unemployment rate of 5.7% remains stable, near all-time lows. Consumer spending remains healthy. Combined credit and debit card sales for Banco Popular customers increased by approximately 5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. We also continue to see healthy demand for homes in Puerto Rico. Mortgage balances at Banco Popular increased by $115 million during the quarter.

    失業率維持在5.7%的穩定水平,接近歷史最低水平。消費者支出仍保持健康水準。與 2024 年第四季相比,Banco Popular 客戶的信用卡和金融卡銷售額合計成長了約 5%。我們也看到波多黎各的住房需求依然旺盛。本季度,Banco Popular的抵押貸款餘額增加了1.15億美元。

  • The construction sector continues to show positive momentum, with public and private investment fueling higher employment levels and driving cement sales to the highest level since 2021. We are optimistic that these trends will persist given the backlog of obligated federal disaster recovery funds, publicly announced real estate and tourism development projects, and the renewed focus on reshoring by global manufacturing companies. The tourism and hospitality sector continues to be a source of strength for the local economy.

    建築業持續保持積極勢頭,公共和私人投資推動就業水準上升,水泥銷售量達到 2021 年以來的最高水準。鑑於聯邦政府已撥付的災後重建資金積壓、已公開宣布的房地產和旅遊開發項目,以及全球製造業公司重新關注回流,我們樂觀地認為這些趨勢將會持續下去。旅遊和酒店業一直是當地經濟的強勁動力。

  • In 2025, airport passenger traffic reached a record of 13.6 million, increasing by 3% compared to 2024. During the fourth quarter, passenger traffic remained stable at around 3 million passengers. And according to Discover Puerto Rico, in the fourth quarter, hotel demand reached nearly 250,000 room nights, marking 11% year-over-year growth and driving a 4% increase in total revenue.

    2025年,機場客運量達到創紀錄的1,360萬人次,比2024年成長3%。第四季度,客運量維持穩定,約300萬人次。據波多黎各旅遊局稱,第四季飯店需求達到近 25 萬間夜,年增 11%,推動總收入成長 4%。

  • We are executing on our strategic framework to be the number one bank for our customers by strengthening relationships and providing exceptional service and products to our customers. We're also focused on delivering solutions faster and improving productivity while reducing costs. Ultimately, our goal is to be a top-performing bank. In addition to the rollout of a commercial cash, cash management platform, we also deployed a new consumer credit origination platform in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

    我們正在執行我們的策略框架,透過加強與客戶的關係,並提供卓越的服務和產品,成為客戶首選的銀行。我們也致力於更快提供解決方案,提高生產效率,同時降低成本。最終,我們的目標是成為一家業績頂尖的銀行。除了推出商業現金、現金管理平台外,我們還在波多黎各和維京群島部署了新的消費信貸發放平台。

  • This platform provides a fully digital origination process for personal loans and credit cards. We saw an upward trend in online originations during the fourth quarter and have originated approximately 36 million since launch in the third quarter. We have continued to invest in our physical retail network to blend the speed and convenience of self-service with in-person support. Our branches continue to be an advantage in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

    該平台提供完全數位化的個人貸款和信用卡申請流程。第四季度,我們看到線上貸款發放量呈上升趨勢,自第三季推出以來,已發放約 3,600 萬筆貸款。我們持續投資於實體零售網絡,將自助服務的便利性和速度與面對面的支援相結合。我們在波多黎各和維京群島的分店仍然是一大優勢。

  • As we continue to modernize our channels and platforms, we are creating a more seamless experience to provide our customers with the flexibility to connect with Popular through the channel that best fits their needs without compromising the quality of our service. We're also seeing the results of our focus on being simple and efficient. We have sustained and continued to simplify our commercial credit origination and portfolio risk management.

    隨著我們不斷推進通路和平台的現代化,我們正在創造更無縫的體驗,讓我們的客戶能夠靈活地透過最適合他們需求的管道與 Popular 建立聯繫,同時又不影響我們的服務品質。我們也看到了我們注重簡潔高效所帶來的成果。我們一直堅持並持續簡化商業信貸發放和投資組合風險管理流程。

  • We are seeing faster cycle times, higher banker productivity, a more seamless customer journey, and loan growth in our small and middle market segments. During the year, we also executed a series of sustainable efficiency initiatives, including exiting our mortgage business in the United States, optimizing our mortgage servicing business in Puerto Rico, and transforming our ERP solution to a modern cloud platform that significantly improves agility and performance. Currently, more than 800 of our colleagues are working on these projects, and we are very proud of the progress that we have made.

    我們看到,中小企業市場的貸款審批週期縮短,銀行從業人員效率提高,客戶體驗更加順暢,貸款額也實現了成長。年內,我們也實施了一系列可持續效率提升舉措,包括退出我們在美國的抵押貸款業務、優化我們在波多黎各的抵押貸款服務業務,以及將我們的 ERP 解決方案轉型為現代化的雲端平台,從而顯著提高了敏捷性和效能。目前,我們有 800 多名同事正在參與這些項目,我們為所取得的進展感到非常自豪。

  • I will now turn the call over to Jorge for more details on our financial results. Jorge?

    現在我將把電話轉給豪爾赫,讓他詳細介紹我們的財務表現。豪爾赫?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Javier. Good morning and thank you all for joining the call today. As Javier mentioned, our quarterly net income increased by $23 million to $234 million, and our EPS improved by $0.38 to $3.53. Excluding the partial reversal of the FDIC special assessment, adjusted net income for the quarter was $224 million, an improvement of $13 million from Q3. These results were driven by better NII and lower expenses. As we have mentioned before, our objective is to deliver sustainable financial results. While we benefited from the FDIC reversal, we are pleased to have exceeded 14% ROTCE for the period and 13% ROTCE for the full year.

    謝謝你,哈維爾。早安,感謝各位今天參加電話會議。正如哈維爾所提到的,我們的季度淨收入增加了2300萬美元,達到2.34億美元,每股收益提高了0.38美元,達到3.53美元。在剔除部分聯邦存款保險公司特別評估費的衝回後,本季調整後的淨收入為2.24億美元,比第三季增加了1,300萬美元。這些成果得益於更高的淨利息收入和更低的費用。正如我們之前提到的,我們的目標是實現可持續的財務表現。雖然我們受益於 FDIC 政策的逆轉,但我們很高興該期間的 ROTCE 超過了 14%,全年的 ROTCE 超過了 13%。

  • In 2025, we executed targeted initiatives to improve profitability by growing the top line and capturing sustainable cost efficiencies, both of which are key drivers of the ROTCE numerator. Looking ahead for 2026 and beyond, we will build on this progress and continue to drive improvement in operating leverage and profitability. At the same time, we see capital levels as a meaningful driver to improve ROTCE. Our current objective remains a sustainable 14% ROTCE. We'll continue to use all available levers to position the company as a top-performing bank when compared to mainland peers.

    2025 年,我們實施了有針對性的舉措,透過提高營收和實現可持續的成本效率來提高獲利能力,這兩項都是 ROTCE 分子的關鍵驅動因素。展望 2026 年及以後,我們將在此基礎上繼續努力,不斷提高經營槓桿和獲利能力。同時,我們認為資本水準是提高 ROTCE 的重要驅動因素。我們目前的目標仍然是實現可持續的14%的ROTCE。我們將繼續利用一切可用手段,使公司成為與內地同業相比業績最佳的銀行之一。

  • Please turn to slide 8. Our net interest income of $658 million increased by $11 million and was driven by higher loan balances, fixed-rate asset repricing in our investment portfolio, and lower deposit costs in both of our banks. For the year, NII increased by $259 million, or 11%. During the quarter, our net interest margin expanded by 10 basis points to 3.61% on a GAAP basis.

    請翻到第8張幻燈片。我們的淨利息收入為 6.58 億美元,增加了 1,100 萬美元,這主要得益於貸款餘額增加、投資組合中固定利率資產重新定價以及我們兩家銀行存款成本降低。本年度,淨利息收入增加了 2.59 億美元,增幅達 11%。本季度,我們的淨利差按美國通用會計準則計算成長了 10 個基點,達到 3.61%。

  • Our fully tax-equivalent margin improved by 13 basis points to 4.03%, driven by higher loan balances and lower interest expense, primarily due to lower balances and costs of Puerto Rico public deposits. Loan growth of $641 million in the quarter was strong, with both banks contributing to that increase. At BBPR, we saw loan growth of $497 million, driven primarily by commercial and mortgage lending. At Popular Bank, we saw loan growth of $144 million, mainly driven by commercial lending. For 2026, we expect consolidated loan growth of 3%-4%.

    由於貸款餘額增加和利息支出減少(主要是由於波多黎各公共存款餘額和成本降低),我們的完全稅收等效利潤率提高了 13 個基點,達到 4.03%。本季貸款成長強勁,達到 6.41 億美元,兩家銀行均對此成長做出了貢獻。在BBPR,我們看到貸款增加了4.97億美元,主要由商業貸款和抵押貸款推動。Popular Bank 的貸款成長了 1.44 億美元,主要由商業貸款推動。我們預計 2026 年綜合貸款成長率為 3%-4%。

  • In our investment portfolio, we continued to reinvest proceeds from bond maturities into US Treasury notes and bills. During the quarter, we purchased approximately $900 million of Treasury notes with a duration of 2.1 years and an average yield of around 3.56%. We expect to maintain a two-to-three-year duration in the investment portfolio. Ending deposit balances decreased by $323 million, and average deposit balances decreased by $880 million. This decline was mostly driven by anticipated outflows from Puerto Rico public deposits, which ended the quarter at $19.4 billion, a decrease of $662 million compared to Q3. We continue to expect public deposits to be in the range of $18 billion to $20 billion.

    在我們的投資組合中,我們繼續將債券到期所得收益再投資於美國國債和短期國庫券。本季度,我們購買了約 9 億美元的國債,期限為 2.1 年,平均殖利率約為 3.56%。我們預計投資組合的期限將維持在兩到三年。期末存款餘額減少了 3.23 億美元,平均存款餘額減少了 8.8 億美元。這一下降主要是由於波多黎各公共存款的預期流出造成的,該季度末波多黎各公共存款為 194 億美元,比第三季減少了 6.62 億美元。我們仍然預計公眾存款將在 180 億美元至 200 億美元之間。

  • At BBPR, excluding Puerto Rico public deposits, ending balances increased by $525 million, driven by growth of $430 million in commercial demand deposits. Average deposits increased by $192 million. Total deposit costs decreased by 11 basis points at each bank. At BBPR, the decrease is mostly a result of Puerto Rico public deposits repricing lower by 22 basis points due to recent interest rate cuts by the Fed, while nonpublic customer deposit costs decreased by 1 basis point.

    在BBPR,不包括波多黎各公共存款,期末餘額增加了5.25億美元,這主要得益於商業活期存款增加了4.3億美元。平均存款額增加了1.92億美元。每家銀行的總存款成本下降了 11 個基點。在BBPR,下降的主要原因是受聯準會近期降息的影響,波多黎各公共存款重新定價下調了22個基點,而非公共客戶存款成本下降了1個基點。

  • At PV, the reduction was mainly related to lower online savings deposit costs and repricing of time deposits. We anticipate 2026 NII will increase 5% to 7%, driven by continued reinvestment of lower-yielding securities and loan originations in the current rate environment, as well as lower costs of Puerto Rico public deposits and online deposits at Popular Bank.

    在PV,降幅主要與線上儲蓄存款成本降低和定期存款重新定價有關。我們預計 2026 年淨利息收入將成長 5% 至 7%,這主要得益於當前利率環境下對低收益證券和貸款發放的持續再投資,以及波多黎各公共存款和 Popular Bank 線上存款成本的降低。

  • Please turn to slide 9. Noninterest income was $166 million, a decrease of $5 million compared to Q3 and in line with the high end of our guidance. We continue to see solid performance across most of our fee-generating segments, including robust customer transaction activity during the holiday season. In 2026, we expect quarterly noninterest income to continue to be in a range of $160 million to $165 million.

    請翻到第9頁投影片。非利息收入為 1.66 億美元,比第三季減少了 500 萬美元,符合我們預期的上限。我們的收費業務區大部分持續保持穩健的業績,包括假期期間強勁的客戶交易活動。預計到 2026 年,季度非利息收入將繼續在 1.6 億美元至 1.65 億美元之間。

  • Please turn to slide 10. Total operating expenses were $473 million, a decrease of $22 million when compared to Q3. Excluding the FDIC reversal, operating expenses were $489 million. Aside from the reversal, the largest quarter-over-quarter variance was related to a $13 million noncash goodwill impairment taken in the third quarter.

    請翻到第10張投影片。總營運支出為 4.73 億美元,比第三季減少了 2,200 萬美元。不計入 FDIC 衝回款項,營運支出為 4.89 億美元。除了逆轉之外,最大的季度環比差異與第三季度提列的 1300 萬美元非現金商譽減值有關。

  • For the year, GAAP operating expenses increased by roughly 2.5%, which was below our original 4% guidance, as we executed on a series of sustainable efficiency initiatives and also benefited from the delay of some expenditures that will occur in 2026. In 2026, we expect total full-year GAAP expenses to increase by approximately 3% compared to 2025, as we continue to invest in our people and technology. Our effective tax rate in the fourth quarter was 16%, compared to approximately 15% in Q3. In 2025, our effective tax rate was 17%, compared to 23% last year, driven by a higher proportion of exempt income. In 2026, we expect the effective tax rate for the year to be in a range of 15% to 17%. Please turn to slide 11.

    本年度,GAAP 營運費用成長約 2.5%,低於我們最初 4% 的預期,因為我們實施了一系列可持續效率提升計劃,並且受益於一些將在 2026 年發生的支出被推遲。預計 2026 年全年 GAAP 總支出將比 2025 年增長約 3%,因為我們將繼續投資於我們的人才和技術。第四季我們的實際稅率為 16%,而第三季約為 15%。2025 年,我們的實際稅率為 17%,而去年為 23%,這主要是由於免稅收入比例較高。我們預計 2026 年的實際稅率將在 15% 至 17% 之間。請翻到第11頁。

  • Tangible book value per share at the end of the quarter was $82.65, an increase of $3.53 per share, driven by our net income and lower unrealized losses in our investment portfolio, offset in part by our capital return activity in the quarter. During the fourth quarter, we paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.75 per share, an increase of $0.05 from Q3.

    本季末每股有形帳面價值為 82.65 美元,較上季末增加 3.53 美元,主要得益於淨收入和投資組合中未實現損失的減少,但部分被本季的資本回報活動所抵銷。第四季度,我們派發了每股 0.75 美元的季度普通股股息,比第三季增加了 0.05 美元。

  • As Javier noted earlier, we're pushing our teams to enhance profitability through ongoing incremental revenue initiatives and expense discipline. While we've made progress over the past two years in reducing our CET1 ratio, there's more we can do. In Q4, we repurchased approximately $148 million in common stock. We believe this is a good run rate for the pace of buybacks going forward, subject to market conditions.

    正如 Javier 之前提到的,我們正在推動團隊透過持續的增量收入計劃和成本控制來提高獲利能力。雖然過去兩年我們在降低一級資本充足率方面取得了進展,但我們還有更多可以做的。第四季度,我們回購了約 1.48 億美元的普通股。我們認為,在市場狀況允許的情況下,這是一個適合未來回購步伐的合理速度。

  • As of December 31, we had $281 million remaining on our active share repurchase authorization. In addition to the common stock repurchases, we'll continue to use capital for loan growth, and we also expect to pursue a dividend increase later this year. Finally, we carry less additional Tier 1 capital than peers and see that as another opportunity to optimize our capital structure in the future.

    截至 12 月 31 日,我們還有 2.81 億美元的有效股票回購授權額度。除了回購普通股外,我們將繼續利用資金增加貸款,並且我們還計劃在今年稍後提高股息。最後,我們持有的額外一級資本比同業少,我們認為這是未來優化資本結構的另一個機會。

  • We believe that these actions, which are subject to market conditions and board approval, will help us achieve our long-term stated CET1 goal of having levels consistent with mainland bank peers, plus a buffer for our geographic concentration.

    我們相信,這些措施(需視市場狀況和董事會批准而定)將有助於我們實現既定的長期CET1目標,即達到與中國大陸銀行同行一致的水平,並為我們地域集中度留出緩衝空間。

  • With that, I turn the call over to Lidio.

    於是,我把電話轉給了利迪奧。

  • Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

    Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

  • Thank you, Jorge, and thank you all for being with us. Turning to slide number 12. Credit quality metrics remained stable during the fourth quarter, with lower NPLs and lower net charge-off. Nonperforming assets and loans decreased by $4 million this quarter, mainly due to Popular Bank. US NPLs decreased by $14 million, as a $17 million mortgage relationship returned to accrual status, offset in part by higher commercial NPLs. BPR NPLs increased $5 million, with commercial up $8 million and consumer up $3 million, offset in part by an $8 million decrease in mortgage NPLs.

    謝謝你,豪爾赫,也謝謝大家今天能和我們在一起。翻到第12張投影片。第四季信貸品質指標維持穩定,不良貸款率和淨沖銷額均下降。本季不良資產和貸款減少了 400 萬美元,主要歸功於 Popular Bank。美國不良貸款減少了 1400 萬美元,原因是一筆 1700 萬美元的抵押貸款關係恢復了應計狀態,但部分被更高的商業不良貸款所抵消。BPR 不良貸款增加了 500 萬美元,其中商業不良貸款增加了 800 萬美元,消費不良貸款增加了 300 萬美元,部分被抵押貸款不良貸款減少了 800 萬美元所抵消。

  • Inflows of NPLs declined by $194 million, primarily in BPR, as the previous quarter included inflows from two unrelated commercial relationships, totaling $188 million. The ratio of NPLs to total loans held in portfolio decreased 3 basis points to 1.27%. Turning to slide number 13.

    不良貸款流入減少了 1.94 億美元,主要來自業務流程重組,因為上一季包含了兩個無關商業關係的流入,總計 1.88 億美元。不良貸款佔貸款總額的比例下降了3個基點,至1.27%。翻到第13張幻燈片。

  • Net charge-offs amounted to $50 million or annualized 51 basis points, compared to $58 million or 60 basis points in the prior quarter. This quarter's results include $5 million in recoveries from the sales of previously charged-off auto loans and credit cards. Excluding this, the net charge-off ratio was 57 basis points. The net charge-off in BPR decreased by $7 million, driven by a decrease in commercial net charge-offs, as the prior quarter included a $14 million charge-off related to a single borrower.

    淨沖銷額為 5,000 萬美元,年化率為 51 個基點,而上一季為 5,800 萬美元,年化率為 60 個基點。本季業績包括從先前已註銷的汽車貸款和信用卡銷售中收回的 500 萬美元。排除此項,淨沖銷率為 57 個基點。BPR 的淨沖銷減少了 700 萬美元,這主要得益於商業淨沖銷的減少,因為上一季包含了與單一借款人相關的 1,400 萬美元沖銷。

  • In 2025, net charge-offs were 52 basis points, an improvement of 16 basis points from last year, driven by lower consumer net charge offs. For 2026, based on current trends and macroeconomic outlook, we expect annual net charge-offs of 55 to 70 basis points. The allowance for credit losses increased by $22 million to $108 million, mostly in BBPR, due to higher reserves for the commercial portfolio, driven by higher balances, specific reserves, and loan modifications, coupled with higher reserves for consumer loans due to changes in FICO mix.

    2025 年淨沖銷率為 52 個基點,比前一年改善了 16 個基點,主要原因是消費者淨沖銷率下降。根據目前的趨勢和宏觀經濟前景,我們預計 2026 年的年度淨沖銷額為 55 至 70 個基點。信貸損失準備金增加了 2,200 萬美元,達到 1.08 億美元,主要增加的是商業貸款組合的準備金,這是由於商業貸款組合的餘額增加、特定準備金和貸款修改所致;此外,由於 FICO 組合的變化,消費貸款的準備金也增加了。

  • The coverage ratio of the ACL to loans in the portfolio remains stable at 2.05%, while the ratio of the ACL to NPLs was 162%, compared to 157% in the previous quarter. The provision for loan losses was $71 million, down $3 million from $75 million in the prior quarter. For the BBPR segment, the provision was $72 million, compared to $74 million in the previous quarter.

    資產負債表對貸款組合的覆蓋率保持穩定在 2.05%,而資產負債表對不良貸款的比例為 162%,而上一季為 157%。貸款損失準備金為 7,100 萬美元,比上一季的 7,500 萬美元減少了 300 萬美元。BBPR業務部門的撥備為7,200萬美元,而上一季為7,400萬美元。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Ferrer for his concluding remarks. Thank you.

    接下來,我將把電話交給費雷爾先生,請他作總結發言。謝謝。

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you, Lidio and Jorge, for your updates. Our fourth quarter results closed out the year on a high note. We are very pleased with our financial performance in 2025. We increased revenues, maintained expense discipline, generated strong loan growth, and improved customer deposit trends. I'm urging our teams to remain focused on deposit growth, loan generation, and particularly on our expense discipline. Our strategy is grounded in customer primacy. We are focused on deepening relationships, delivering value across channels, and simplifying how we operate. Most importantly, it is focused on translating these efforts into tangible financial results and generating value for our shareholders.

    謝謝Lidio和Jorge提供的最新消息。我們的第四季業績為這一年畫上了圓滿的句點。我們對2025年的財務表現非常滿意。我們提高了收入,維持了成本控制,實現了強勁的貸款成長,並改善了客戶存款趨勢。我敦促我們的團隊繼續專注於存款成長、貸款發放,尤其要嚴格控制支出。我們的策略以客戶至上為基礎。我們致力於深化客戶關係,透過各種管道創造價值,並簡化營運方式。最重要的是,公司致力於將這些努力轉化為實際的財務成果,並為股東創造價值。

  • In closing, I want to recognize our colleagues and their contribution to our results. I see what they do every day in our branches, call centers, and centralized offices. We are pushing ourselves to deliver more for our clients every day, and I am deeply grateful for their commitment and dedication. We are now ready to answer your questions.

    最後,我要感謝我們的同事們,感謝他們為我們所取得的成果所做的貢獻。我每天都能在我們的分店、呼叫中心和集中辦公地點看到他們的工作內容。我們每天都在努力為客戶提供更多服務,我非常感謝他們的付出和奉獻。我們現在可以回答您的問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Brett Rabatin, Hovde Group.

    (操作員說明)Brett Rabatin,Hovde Group。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. How are you doing?

    嘿,大家早安。你好嗎?

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Brett. Doing well.

    早安,布雷特。一切順利。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • I wanted to start on the guidance and just thinking about the NII guide, and if I'm reading it correctly, it kind of would suggest maybe slightly slower average balance sheet growth during '26 and 5 to 10 basis points of margin expansion. And I know you guys don't like to give explicit margin guidance, but would that be within the realm of what you're looking at? And then just wanted to ask around the ROTCE goal, you know, why with operating leverage, that might not increase a bit from here?

    我想先談談業績指引,就從淨利息收入指引進手。如果我理解正確的話,它似乎表明 2026 年平均資產負債表增長速度可能會略微放緩,利潤率擴張 5 到 10 個基點。我知道你們不太喜歡給出明確的利潤率指導,但這是否在你們的考慮範圍內?然後我想問一下關於 ROTCE 目標的問題,你知道,為什麼經營槓桿率不會從現在開始略有提高呢?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Thank you, Brett. Good morning. First on the NII, first, we were very pleased with the 11% growth this year. The 11% growth in NII was driven by expanding the margin, being able to reinvest fixed rate investments in our portfolio into higher yielding assets, loan growth, and lower cost of deposits. We believe all those three factors will continue into 2026, albeit at a smaller magnitude.

    好的。謝謝你,布雷特。早安.首先,就淨利息收入而言,我們對今年11%的成長非常滿意。淨利息收入成長 11% 的驅動因素包括:利潤率擴大、能夠將投資組合中的固定利率投資再投資於收益更高的資產、貸款成長以及存款成本降低。我們認為這三個因素將持續到 2026 年,儘管程度會減弱。

  • We will see a slowdown, for example, of the yield uptake that we will get on the reinvestment of the portfolio. But we're very comfortable with that 5% to 7% guide. We are expecting margin to continue to expand throughout 2026. I think when you look at that range, if you're looking at, you know, what drives one for the other, really always revolves around low cost deposit levels and our ability to reduce deposits in the US market.

    例如,我們將看到投資組合再投資所獲得的收益成長放緩。但我們對 5% 到 7% 這個參考範圍非常滿意。我們預計利潤率將在2026年繼續擴大。我認為,當你審視這個範圍時,如果你要探究是什麼驅動著一個,那麼實際上總是圍繞著低成本存款水平以及我們降低美國市場存款的能力。

  • In terms of the ROTCE, you know, we've talked in the past, you know, that we want ROTCE to be driven by the improvement in performance and net income, right? And again, we are very pleased with the results this year. We have a lot of momentum going into 2026. We expect that momentum to continue. We want that, you know, above 14% to be sustainable. There's enough uncertainty in the world, and we want to make sure that we are absorbing any ups and downs through the cycle. So we're not quite there yet.

    就 ROTCE 而言,我們過去也討論過,我們希望 ROTCE 由業績和淨收入的改善所驅動,對吧?再次重申,我們對今年的成績非常滿意。進入2026年,我們勢頭強勁。我們預計這種勢頭將會持續下去。我們希望高於 14% 的比例能夠持續下去。世界充滿了不確定性,我們希望確保能夠承受週期中的任何起伏。所以我們還沒完全達到目標。

  • We do feel that we have a lot of momentum and like, you know, the starting point and where we're at, but that is something that we, we want to continue to focus on. I think this year we try to be more intent or deliberate in how we're managing capital levels as well. And you know, as I discussed in my, in my prepared remarks.

    我們確實感覺我們現在勢頭強勁,就像,你知道,我們已經走到了起點,但我們想繼續專注於此。我認為今年我們在管理資本水準方面也會更有意識、更謹慎。你知道,正如我在準備好的演講稿中所討論的那樣。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Okay. And then the other question I had was just around, you know, loan growth, which was better than I expected and pretty strong in commercial. You know, when I think about that guidance for the coming year, I mean, you've had 6%-ish growth the past two years, 4Q was 7%. You know, is the slowness or slower level anticipated in 2026, you know, is that just conservatism around consumer or any thoughts around that? And then as it relates to onshoring, you guys seen any opportunities related to that?

    好的。然後,我的另一個問題是關於貸款成長的,結果比我預期的要好,商業貸款成長相當強勁。你知道,當我想到來年的業績預期時,我的意思是,過去兩年你們的成長率約為 6%,第四季為 7%。你知道,預計到 2026 年經濟成長速度會放緩嗎?這只是消費者的保守態度,還是你對此有什麼看法?那麼,關於本土化生產,你們有沒有看到相關的機會呢?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. So let's start first on the loan growth. You know, as you said, we have seen loan growth around 6% for the last couple of years, led by growth in Puerto Rico. That growth in Puerto Rico was across all of our portfolio, right? You know, commercial, mortgage, and consumer.

    好的。那我們先從貸款成長情況說起。正如你所說,過去幾年我們看到貸款成長率約為 6%,其中波多黎各的成長尤其顯著。我們在波多黎各的成長是遍及我們所有投資組合的,對嗎?你知道,商業貸款、抵押貸款和消費貸款。

  • As we look into 2026, we expect to continue to see commercial to lead the way and mortgage in Puerto Rico. But we do see a softening on the consumer, particularly around auto. So that is one part of the guide. The other growth engine for us has been in the US. You know, we are in good markets in the US. We like those markets, but we want to make sure that we are pricing for relationships and for profitable loan growth.

    展望 2026 年,我們預計波多黎各的商業貸款和抵押貸款將繼續引領市場。但我們確實看到消費者的需求軟化,尤其是在汽車領域。這是指南的一部分。我們另一個成長引擎來自美國。你知道,我們在美國市場發展得很好。我們喜歡這些市場,但我們希望確保我們的定價能夠建立在客戶關係和實現獲利性貸款成長的基礎上。

  • There's some of that embedded. As well as Brent, as you can imagine, you know, there's always timing as loan transactions are focused on some larger clients. When those things close in terms of funding that you advance or when things slow down on expected payoffs, that has an impact on those kind of year over year kind of changes. But we, we're confident on the 3% to 4% guide and the momentum that we've had over the last couple of years in both Puerto Rico and our US markets.

    其中包含一些這樣的內容。正如你所想,除了布倫特之外,貸款交易總是會考慮時機,因為貸款交易主要面向一些較大的客戶。當那些你所推動的資金項目關閉,或是預期收益放緩時,就會對那些年復一年的變化產生影響。但是,我們對 3% 到 4% 的成長目標以及過去幾年我們在波多黎各和美國市場的成長勢頭充滿信心。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. Congrats on a strong year, guys.

    好的。那很有幫助。恭喜各位,這一年過得非常精彩!

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jared Shaw, Barclays.

    Jared Shaw,巴克萊銀行。

  • Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

    Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning.

    嘿,早安。

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

    Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe, I guess just sticking to the theme of growth outlook. When you look at fees, where do you see potential softness, I guess, in fees and that growth rate? You've had some pretty good trends during the course of the year.

    或許吧,我猜還是繼續討論成長前景這個主題吧。從費用角度來看,您認為費用和成長率方面哪些方面可能存在疲軟空間?今年以來,你們出現了一些相當不錯的趨勢。

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, remember, Jared, one of the things that the '25 results included, you know, roughly $10 million of kind of unusual items, you know, the recovery for prior periods of a tenant, and then we also had some refunds of federal taxes that were recognized in fee income. So that $10 million, really, if you look at the guide, you're making up for that $10 million next year. So there's a little bit more growth embedded in that guide than probably, you know, jumps out at you.

    是的,賈里德,你還記得嗎? 2025 年的業績中包括大約 1000 萬美元的特殊項目,你知道,那是之前租戶欠款的追回款項,此外,我們還收到了一些聯邦稅款的退款,這些稅款已計入費用收入。所以,如果你看看這份指南,你會發現,你明年就能彌補這1000萬美元的損失。所以,這份指南中蘊含著比你一眼就能看出來的更多的成長建議。

  • Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

    Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then on capital, nice to see the buyback and the commentary around, you know, sort of the willingness to bring capital ratios down. How should we think about M&A with that backdrop? And, you know, you certainly have the capital and the growth to do something, I guess, you know, in terms of, you know, potential sizes or anything like that. Any thoughts you could share with us?

    好的。至於資本方面,很高興看到回購以及圍繞降低資本比率的意願的評論。在這種背景下,我們該如何看待併購?而且,你知道,你肯定有足夠的資金和成長空間去做一些事情,我想,例如,在潛在規模或其他類似方面。有什麼想法可以跟我們分享嗎?

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. This is Javier. Well, our primary focus continues to be our transformation program. That said, in the US, we're always open to opportunities to add on profitable niche businesses, teams, and assets. So whole bank M&A is not a priority. However, it would be responsible for us to say that we would not evaluate opportunities to enhance shareholder value over the long term.

    當然。這是哈維爾。嗯,我們目前的首要任務仍然是轉型計畫。也就是說,在美國,我們始終對收購有利可圖的小眾企業、團隊和資產的機會持開放態度。因此,整個銀行的併購並非優先事項。但是,如果我們說我們不會評估提升股東長期價值的機會,那也是不負責任的。

  • I think we said this before, there is a high threshold for any transaction that we may consider, and we'll evaluate opportunities to grow inorganically as long as they meet the following criteria to complement our US business. First, it needs to be compelling enough for us to consider reallocating resources away from our transformation initiatives. We have a little bit over 800 employees who are currently focused on these efforts that we would need to reallocate to whatever, you know, effort related to an M&A, you know, due diligence, integration, conversion.

    我想我們之前說過,我們對任何可能考慮的交易都有很高的門檻,只要符合以下標準,能夠補充我們在美國的業務,我們就會評估非有機成長的機會。首先,它必須足夠有說服力,才能讓我們考慮將資源從轉型計畫中重新分配。我們有 800 多名員工目前專注於這些工作,我們需要將他們重新分配到與併購相關的任何工作中,例如盡職調查、整合、轉換等。

  • Number two, core deposits. Any transaction, we need to strengthen our deposit franchise and lower cost cost deposits with lower cost deposits. Number three, it needs to be commercial-led, which is our key strategy in the United States. It needs to enhance our commercial-led and niche business strategy, and also provide some CRE diversification.

    第二,核心礦藏。任何交易,我們都需要加強存款業務,並透過降低存款成本來降低存款成本。第三,它需要以商業為主導,這是我們在美國的關鍵策略。需要加強我們以商業為主導和細分市場業務策略,並提供一些商業房地產多元化。

  • Four, it needs to be geographically consistent. So create greater market penetration in our existing footprint, increasing opportunities for value creation through cost synergies, or need to extend presence to adjacent markets or geographies. And I think, also it needs to have the scale -- in terms of scale, it needs to be right size for our US business. I have a preference for not for --

    第四,它需要在地理位置上保持一致。因此,我們需要在現有市場範圍內實現更大的市場滲透率,透過成本綜效增加創造價值的機會,或需要將業務擴展到鄰近市場或地區。而且我認為,它還需要具備規模——就規模而言,它需要適合我們在美國的業務。我更喜歡不…--

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • MOE.

    教育部。

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • MOE. You know, I don't think highly of those, not that they can't work, but that's just my bias.

    教育部。你知道,我不太看好那些方法,並不是說它們不能奏效,只是我個人的偏見。

  • And I think the last item would be cultural fit, and it's last, but it's really top of mind. Whatever target needs to align to our culture of performance and employee wellbeing.

    我認為最後一點是文化契合度,雖然它排在最後,但卻是我最關心的問題。任何目標都必須與我們注重績效和員工福祉的企業文化相契合。

  • So, we are very mindful that not all customer demographics will make sense as a part of Popular. So I think, you know, very specifically, that's how we think today about M&A.

    因此,我們非常清楚,並非所有客戶群都適合成為 Popular 的一部分。所以我覺得,具體來說,這就是我們今天對併購的看法。

  • Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

    Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, thanks. That's great insight. Just maybe finally for me, do you just have the spot, deposit costs, and asset yields at the end of the year?

    好的,謝謝。真是精闢的見解。最後,對我來說,你們是否只考慮年底的現貨價格、存款成本和資產收益率?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • We don't usually provide, you know, the spot rates, Jared.

    賈里德,你知道,我們通常不提供即期匯率。

  • Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

    Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. All right, thanks.

    好的。好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

    本‧格林格,花旗銀行。

  • Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

    Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I was wondering --

    您好,早安。我想知道--

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning, Ben.

    早安,本。

  • Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

    Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

  • Based on expenses. Good morning. So on the expense guide, I know you guys always give a GAAP basis, so that's inclusive of investments and things like that. I know that last year you were also investing, and this year I'm assuming '27 marks will or are going to, because it's, you know, your size investment is almost like a core.

    按支出計算。早安.所以關於費用指南,我知道你們總是按照 GAAP 準則編制,所以其中包含了投資之類的項目。我知道去年你也在投資,今年我估計 '27 marks 也會或將會繼續投資,因為你知道,你的投資規模幾乎就像核心投資一樣。

  • So I'm just kind of curious, is this year on an investment basis, kind of smaller or larger or anything you could frame it in terms of timing and any expectations on that relative to kind of what we've seen previously or potentially starting new projects that are multi-year in nature?

    所以我很好奇,今年的投資規模是比往年還小還是大?或者說,您能否從時間安排的角度來談談今年的投資規模和預期,以及與之前相比,是否有可能啟動一些多年期的新項目?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I think the run rate that we're going is not changing much. It gets to a point then where we only have so much capacity and resources to be able to do so much at once. I think, certainly in 2025, we were running at that capacity level. As things roll off and we go live, you know, for example, Javier talked about that we went live on a new ERP in January first. That releases some resources, but then a lot of those resources get reallocated to the next big project and the next thing going on.

    是的,我認為我們目前的運行速度不會有太大變化。到後來,我們的能力和資源就有限了,一次只能做這麼多事。我認為,到 2025 年,我們肯定已經達到了那個產能水準。隨著各項工作逐步推進並正式上線,例如,Javier 談到我們在 1 月率先上線了一個新的 ERP 系統。這樣可以釋放一些資源,但隨後許多資源又會被重新分配給下一個大專案和下一個正在進行的事情。

  • You know, so I think we all feel fairly comfortable with the level and focus of the teams. You know, we can always certainly do more, but there is a reality that you can only have so much, you know, resource and management focus on these implementations.

    所以我覺得我們都對各隊的水平和專注度感到相當滿意。你知道,我們當然可以做得更多,但現實是,你能夠投入這些實施工作的資源和管理精力是有限的。

  • Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

    Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

  • Gotcha. That's helpful. I know we've talked about the pace of loan growth and then also the reinvestment of the securities higher. But just kind of looking at, like, just the average earning asset mix, where it is today, and obviously if you could get securities into a loan, it's probably the best case scenario. But I'm just kind of curious, is today's mix within kind of the guardrails that you want? Could you potentially see more loans down the road? Just kind of curious on just how you think about average earning asset mix down two or three, four, five years from now, given that you also have the public deposits.

    明白了。那很有幫助。我知道我們已經討論過貸款成長速度,以及證券再投資的上漲。但就目前的平均收益資產組合而言,顯然,如果能將證券轉換為貸款,那可能是最好的情況。但我有點好奇,今天的混音是否在你想要的範圍內?未來是否有可能獲得更多貸款?我很好奇,考慮到公眾存款,您如何看待未來兩三年、四、五年內平均收益資產組合的情況。

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I mean, certainly, we would prefer to make loans, not so much necessarily on a yield perspective, but we'd rather have those relationships, right? And we feel that, you know, we can have a deeper profit base with a lending relationship than we can just buying, you know, portfolio assets. But there is a reality that we have around 30% of our deposits in Puerto Rico that require to be collateralized, and that will keep us in the portfolio business of buying investment securities. So, as we go forward, we would like to see a lower loan to -- sorry, higher loan to deposit ratio. But it will depend on the composition of our balance sheet.

    是的,我的意思是,當然,我們更願意發放貸款,不一定是出於收益方面的考慮,而是我們更願意建立這種關係,對吧?我們認為,透過貸款關係,我們可以獲得比直接購買投資組合資產更深厚的利潤基礎。但現實情況是,我們在波多黎各的存款約有 30% 需要抵押,這將使我們繼續從事購買投資證券的投資組合業務。所以,展望未來,我們希望看到更低的貸款存款比率——抱歉,是更高的貸款存款比率。但這取決於我們的資產負債表組成。

  • But as I said before, we do expect NIM to continue to grow and expand this year. And even as we go forward and we start combining maturities between our recent purchases and more legacy pre-2023 investments, we still have a good upside for pickup of yield in that investment portfolio. At current rates, the more recent purchases don't reset very far to where we bought them versus the uptake that we get in the more legacy portfolio. So, we still see that as a strong tailwind going forward.

    但正如我之前所說,我們預計 NIM 今年將繼續成長和擴張。即使我們繼續前進,開始將近期購買的資產與 2023 年之前更多遺留的投資合併,該投資組合的收益率仍有很大的提升空間。以目前的速度,最近購買的資產價格與我們購買時的價格相比,並沒有大幅回落,而老牌投資組合的價格回落速度則更快。所以,我們仍然認為這將是未來發展的一大利好因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kelly Motta, KBW.

    Kelly Motta,KBW。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. Maybe, maybe --

    嘿,早安。謝謝你的提問。也許,也許--

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning, Kelly.

    早上好,凱莉。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Turning back to capital, I want to make sure. Good morning. I wanted to make sure I heard you correctly. It seems like you alluded to maybe additional Tier 1 being lower than peers. Wondering if from a high level you can discuss, you know, it seems like maybe then leverage would be your guiding ratio, how you're thinking about that, as we move ahead, given that the importance of capital return to the profitability improvement story. Thank you.

    回到資金問題上,我想確認一下。早安.我想確認一下我是否聽清楚了。你似乎暗示了額外的 Tier 1 等級可能低於同等級。我想知道您能否從宏觀層面探討一下,您認為槓桿率或許會成為您的指導比率,鑑於資本回報對盈利能力提升的重要性,您是如何看待這個問題的?謝謝。

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Thank you, Kelly. So we often talked with you all about CET1 and a lot of focus on CET1, and we talked about, you know, our goal of getting that lower plus a buffer. One of the things that we don't very often talk about is that, you know, we have somewhat an efficient capital stack and that we really have very little additional Tier 1, right? We have, you know, around 5 basis points. And when we look at peers, they have anywhere between 50 and 100 basis points of additional Tier 1. So we look at this as another lever, that's an opportunity that we're evaluating and looking at.

    當然。謝謝你,凱莉。所以我們經常和大家談論 CET1,非常關注 CET1,我們也談到了我們的目標,那就是降低 CET1 並留出緩衝空間。我們很少談到的一點是,我們的資本結構相對高效,而且我們實際上並沒有太多額外的1級資本,對吧?你知道,我們大概有 5 個基點。當我們觀察同行時,會發現他們的一級資本比同行多出 50 到 100 個基點。所以我們把這看作是另一個槓桿,一個我們正在評估和研究的機會。

  • Perhaps there's an opportunity for, for something that's accretive, without necessarily impacting the total Tier 1 or total regulatory capital and being able to balance lowering CET1 with management and board's intent to be more, you know, deliberate in reducing that capital over a prolonged period of time.

    或許存在這樣的機會,可以做一些有增值作用的事情,而不必影響一級資本總額或監管資本總額,並且能夠在降低 CET1 的同時,兼顧管理層和董事會希望在較長一段時間內更加謹慎地降低該資本的意圖。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. Fair enough. And maybe I, I think we've hit on, on this a bit, but turning to, loans and yields, I was surprised your loan yields have held in really nicely, even with the rate cuts. Can you remind us how much of your book floats and, and I, I don't believe you usually provide it, but I'll try. Any new production rates would be really helpful here. Thank you.

    好的。好的。很公平。或許,我想我們已經稍微談到了這一點,但說到貸款和收益率,我很驚訝你們的貸款收益率即使在降息的情況下也保持得非常好。你可以提醒我們一下你的書有多少部分是漂浮的嗎?還有,我不認為你通常會提供這部分內容,但我會盡力。任何新的生產力都將非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So a couple of things on loan yields. We're still seeing loan growth in Puerto Rico on the consumer side to be, you know, flat or above, and with the exception of credit cards. But in the quarter, we still saw an improvement in auto yield, and flat in personnel -- I'm sorry, in personal loans. And we've talked about in the past that we just have the low beta on the way of, we didn't pass through all the increases in the loan pricing, and we're seeing kind of the benefits, a little bit of the opposite behavior that we see in our deposit base in Puerto Rico.

    是的。關於貸款收益率,有幾點需要說明。我們仍然看到波多黎各消費貸款的成長將保持穩定或略有成長,信用卡貸款除外。但本季度,我們仍然看到汽車貸款收益率有所提高,而人員貸款收益率——抱歉,是個人貸款收益率——則持平。我們過去曾討論過,我們目前的低β值尚未完全反映在貸款定價中,因此我們看到了一些好處,這與我們在波多黎各的存款基礎呈現出略微相反的趨勢。

  • I don't -- I think last quarter we talked about where I don't know how long that's going to continue, where, as I said in talking about loan growth, we do see a softening in consumer demand, particularly around auto. So it would seem logical to me that we start seeing some lower pricing there, as people compete for the production.

    我不——我認為上個季度我們討論過,我不知道這種情況會持續多久,正如我在談到貸款增長時所說,我們確實看到消費者需求有所疲軟,尤其是在汽車方面。因此,在我看來,隨著人們競相生產,價格開始下降是合乎邏輯的。

  • In terms of variable, it's around 25% of our total loans are variable or floating. Most of that is commercial loans. I think both portfolios, around 40% of commercial loans are floating. And then remember, we do have the credit card. We have the construction portfolio, that float. And in terms of new yields, we don't provide that.

    就浮動利率而言,我們總貸款中約有 25% 是浮動利率或變額利率貸款。其中大部分是商業貸款。我認為這兩個投資組合中,大約 40% 的商業貸款都是浮動利率貸款。而且別忘了,我們還有信用卡。我們擁有可觀的建築投資組合。至於新增收益,我們無法提供。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. Last one, if I can slip it in. I apologize if this was addressed already, but we've with the charge-off, 55 to 75 basis points is certainly lower than historically what we've seen in Puerto Rico, but a step-up from 2025. I would imagine that's mostly on the consumer side. But can you kind of piece together the outlook here of what you're seeing and how you came to that 55 to 75 basis point range. Any movement between now and what gets you to that higher range in '26.

    好的。很公平。最後一個,如果可以的話。如果這個問題之前已經討論過了,我深感抱歉。但是,就沖銷而言,55 到 75 個基點肯定比我們在波多黎各歷史上看到的要低,但比 2025 年的情況要好。我想這主要還是消費者方面的問題。但是,您能否大致分析一下您目前看到的情況,以及您是如何得出 55 到 75 個基點範圍的?從現在到 2026 年達到更高水準的任何變動。

  • Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

    Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

  • Yeah. Small correction, Kelly. I mean, we provided for 55 to 70 basis points, so the high end was a little bit lower than 55 --

    是的。稍作更正,凱莉。我的意思是,我們預留了55到70個基點,所以上限略低於55個基點——

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • My bad.

    我的錯。

  • Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

    Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

  • 70 basis points. Yes. I mean, generally, before going into the details, I mean, we see -- we have a very stable outlook. We think the Puerto Rico economy continue to be stable with moderate growth, and that's the outlook that we have for next year.

    70個基點。是的。我的意思是,總的來說,在深入細節之前,我的意思是,我們看到——我們的前景非常穩定。我們認為波多黎各經濟將繼續保持穩定,實現溫和成長,這也是我們對明年的展望。

  • Under that context, we believe that generally, our consumer portfolio will continue to -- we continue to behave as they have in 2025. We do are accounting for potentially some charge-off of some of larger commercial relationship that we have reserved for. So that is embedded in the range that we have provided to you. So that explains a little bit our rationale.

    在此背景下,我們認為,總體而言,我們的消費者組合將在 2025 年繼續保持其以往的營運模式。我們正在考慮將一些較大的商業關係損失計入核銷額度,這些損失是我們已預留的。所以,這已經包含在我們為您提供的產品系列中了。這就稍微解釋了我們的理由。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arren Cyganovich, Truist.

    Arren Cyganovich,Truist。

  • Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

    Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

  • Maybe you could talk a little bit about whether or not you're seeing any kind of deposit competition in Puerto Rico and your expectations for deposit growth in the year?

    您能否談談您在波多黎各是否看到任何存款競爭,以及您對今年存款成長的預期?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, I think clearly, there is competition in the market. You can see from our numbers that we've grown deposit balances, and we expect to do the same this year. But there are a few banks in the market and also credit unions.

    很明顯,市場上存在競爭。從我們的數據可以看出,我們的存款餘額有所成長,我們預計今年也會如此。但市場上也有一些銀行和信用合作社。

  • So -- but we are not seeing any irrationality in the pricing. So on this cycle. So I would say that it's pretty steady and we will not, however, we said it before, we won't lose good clients to pricing on deposit pricing. So again, we're going to be -- we're going to defend our position and particularly good relationships in all segments, but hopefully not do anything that's crazy.

    所以——但我們並沒有看到定價方面有任何不合理之處。所以,在這個週期裡。所以我覺得情況相當穩定,而且我們不會,但是,正如我們之前所說,我們不會因為定金定價而失去優質客戶。所以,我們再次重申——我們將捍衛我們的立場,尤其是在各個領域建立的良好關係,但希望不會做出任何瘋狂的事情。

  • Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

    Arren Cyganovich - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just kind of thinking broader picture, the US has really stepped-up military in the Caribbean. And wondering if you're seeing any increasing the presence and whether or not that's a positive from an economic standpoint to Puerto Rico?

    好的。那很有幫助。從更宏觀的角度來看,美國確實加強了在加勒比地區的軍事部署。想知道您是否看到這種現象增加,以及從經濟角度來看,這對波多黎各來說是否是一件好事?

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I would say that it's a net positive. We -- it's -- we have seen some increased activity, but it's mostly -- I wouldn't say in our branches I'm going to say it's in geographies adjacent to military bases or installations we've seen customers that are benefiting from relationships with the military throughout Puerto Rico, and we're seeing there are reports of the military entering into lease agreements for you may imagine, ports and airports.

    總的來說,我認為這是一件好事。我們看到一些業務活動有所增加,但主要是——我不會說是在我們的分支機構,而是在靠近軍事基地或設施的地區——我們看到客戶從與波多黎各各地軍方的關係中受益,而且我們看到有報道稱軍方正在簽訂租賃協議,您可以想像,比如港口和機場。

  • And again, no of customers, clients of ours that smaller or middle market clients that have entered into contracts with the military. So that's why we believe it's net positive. Obviously, we're monitoring it. if you were to -- if military presence were to grow, that can only increase. So that's why I started by saying that it's a net positive, we'll see because it's dependent on, as you know, geopolitical and forces and decisions out of the White House.

    再次強調,我們的客戶中沒有中小市場客戶與軍方簽訂合約。所以這就是我們認為它總體上是積極的原因。顯然,我們正在密切關注此事。如果軍事存在擴大,這種情況只會愈演愈烈。所以,我一開始就說這是利大於弊,我們拭目以待,因為如你所知,這取決於地緣政治因素、白宮的決策以及各方力量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

    (操作員說明)Gerard Cassidy,RBC。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Good morning, Jorge. Good morning, Javier.

    早安,豪爾赫。早安,哈維爾。

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Jared.

    早上好,賈里德。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Good morning. At the risk of being called a curmudgeon again, as I was on a call with one of your peers, I have asked the question. I mean the outlook for you folks and your peers is quite good for 2026.

    早安.冒著再次被稱為老頑固的風險,因為我當時正在和你們的一位同行通話,所以我問了這個問題。我的意思是,對於你們和你們的同行來說,2026 年的前景相當不錯。

  • The economy is healthy, credit, as you guys pointed out, is resilient. We have a steeper positive slope yield curve, maybe it gets even more positive slope. We've got loan growth, as you pointed out as well.

    經濟狀況良好,信貸也像你們指出的那樣具有韌性。我們現在的殖利率曲線斜率更陡,而且斜率可能會更大。正如您所指出的,我們的貸款金額也有所增長。

  • When you look around corners, aside from the geopolitical risk that we're all aware of, when you guys have to look around corners, what are you watching out for so that we don't get a surprise this year that nobody is obviously expecting?

    除了我們都知道的地緣政治風險之外,當你們需要關註一些事情時,你們在關注什麼,才能避免今年出現一些出乎所有人意料的意外?

  • Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

    Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

  • Well, that's a very good question. And of course, we think about it all the time. I think that one of the themes that's in the States as important to Puerto Rico is affordability, right? I mean we think about that and how it may impact certain segments of our clients, right? And it's something that obviously impacts home creation, let's say, and it may impact our customers if inflation would escalate. So that's something that we think about.

    嗯,這是一個很好的問題。當然,我們一直都在思考這個問題。我認為,對波多黎各來說,美國同樣重視的一個主題是生活成本可負擔性,對吧?我的意思是,我們會考慮這一點,以及它可能對我們某些客戶群產生的影響,對吧?顯然,這會對房屋建造產生影響,如果通貨膨脹加劇,可能會對我們的客戶產生影響。所以這是我們需要考慮的問題。

  • And the other item that we can control, but it obviously has an impact to our economy is the PREPA situation. The fact that the electric power authority bankruptcy is still pending. So anything having to do with generation of electricity is a concern because it's essentially a tax on economic growth.

    另一個我們可以控制但顯然會對我們的經濟產生影響的因素是波多黎各電力局 (PREPA) 的情況。電力局破產案仍在審理中。因此,任何與發電有關的事情都令人擔憂,因為它本質上是對經濟成長的一種稅。

  • Now we're also benefiting from the fact that gasoline is at very good levels. So we're benefiting from that. But I think those would be the two items that are they're kind of lurking and may bite us. But we're hoping that this is a year where the PREPA bankruptcy gets dealt with. And clearly, everybody recognizes that developing the grid and fixing this is critical for Puerto Rico's future. So we think that clear heads will prevail, and we'll get to a resolution that's rational for all the parties involved.

    現在我們也受益於汽油價格處於非常有利的水平。所以我們從中受益。但我認為這兩項就像潛伏著的毒瘤,可能會為我們帶來麻煩。但我們希望今年波多黎各電力局的破產問題能夠解決。顯然,大家都意識到,發展電網並解決這個問題對波多黎各的未來至關重要。所以我們相信,冷靜的頭腦最終會戰勝一切,我們會找到一個對各方都合理的解決方案。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Very good. And then as a follow-up, stepping back for a moment, you guys touched on some of the economic statistics for Puerto Rico. Can you remind us and give us some color, the onshoring of America and the building of manufacturing plants that's taking place on the mainland, I believe Puerto Rico is seeing some of those benefits as well.

    非常好。然後,作為後續討論,我們先回顧一下,你們談到了波多黎各的一些經濟統計數據。您能否提醒我們並詳細說明一下,隨著美國本土製造業的回流和工廠的建設,我相信波多黎各也從中受益。

  • Can you give us some color on what you're seeing on the ground? Is there progress being made there and what that future might look like for the economy for Puerto Rico?

    可以詳細描述一下你現場看到的情況嗎?波多黎各在這方面取得了進展嗎?波多黎各的經濟未來前景如何?

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Well, we are -- we can comment on what's public and maybe provide -- offer some like thoughts on maybe stuff that we're listening to the grapevine. But you're absolutely right. Global manufacturers are increasingly prioritizing reshoring initiatives and Puerto Rico is very well positioned to benefit from this trend.

    是的。嗯,我們可以對公開的資訊發表評論,也可以就一些我們聽到的傳聞提供一些想法。但你說得完全正確。全球製造商越來越重視製造業回流計劃,而波多黎各完全有能力從這一趨勢中受益。

  • So during last year, multiple companies announced new investments or expansions in Puerto Rico, of all sizes. And that's representing about $2.2 billion in total capital investment and the creation of more than yes, 2,512 -- well, actually, I thought is 4,600 jobs.

    因此,去年有多家公司宣佈在波多黎各進行新的投資或擴張,規模大小不一。這代表著約 22 億美元的總資本投資,並創造了超過 2512 個——嗯,實際上,我認為是 4,600 個就業機會。

  • So -- and I think the -- we called it the wail. I mean, there's, again, all sizes, but the well we call the Eli Lily's announcement which is a $ 1.2 billion commitment to modernize and expand its pharma manufacturing facilities in Carolina, and that's close to 1,000 -- 1,200 jobs -- new jobs. And Amgen's $650 million investment to expand its biopharm operations in Juncos, and that's another 750.

    所以——我想——我們稱之為哀號。我的意思是,規模大小不一,但我們稱之為禮來公司宣布的這項投資,即承諾投資 12 億美元對其位於卡羅來納州的製藥生產設施進行現代化改造和擴建,這將創造近 1000 至 1200 個新的就業崗位。安進公司投資 6.5 億美元擴大在 Juncos 的生物製藥業務,這又增加了 7.5 億美元。

  • Now that said, we expect -- and this is a rate on now. That's what happened last year. And it's close to 17 nits that announced new investments in Puerto Rico through the onshoring or reshoring. But the grapevine tells us that we ought to expect more announcements in 2026 and a few will be large. So -- but that just grapevine. So we think that, that trend will continue.

    話雖如此,我們預計——而且這是目前的利率。去年就是這種情況。已有近 17 家公司宣布透過回流或遷回的方式在波多黎各進行新的投資。但坊間傳聞,2026 年將會有更多公告發布,其中一些將會是重磅消息。所以——但這只是傳聞而已。所以我們認為,這種趨勢將會持續下去。

  • And of course, that will fuel our economy. It's not only the direct job, but as you know, this has a multiplier effect and any such investment will generate 3 times what it typically generates indirect investments. So looking forward to more announcements from the government in '26. And of course, once that happens, you'll know right away.

    當然,這將促進我們的經濟發展。這不僅是直接投資,而且如你所知,這會產生乘數效應,任何此類投資產生的收益將是間接投資的三倍。期待政府在2026年發布更多公告。當然,一旦這種情況發生,你就會立刻知道。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Very good. And will there be any benefits from the half-time show at the Super Bowl?

    非常好。超級盃中場秀會帶來什麼好處嗎?

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • We'll see.

    我們拭目以待。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • More record sales.

    唱片銷售再創新高。

  • Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

    Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

  • Well, next week, we'll talk about it.

    下週我們再討論這個問題。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

    Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

  • Yeah, it's interesting. I don't know if you've seen the ads. The ads are fantastic. Yeah, the ads are, are fantastic.

    是啊,挺有意思的。我不知道你有沒有看過那些廣告。這些廣告太棒了。是的,這些廣告太棒了。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Good.

    好的。

  • Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

    Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

  • But we'll see.

    但我們拭目以待。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • That's good for Puerto Rico. Okay, thank you.

    這對波多黎各來說是件好事。好的,謝謝。

  • Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

    Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

  • Yep, absolutely. Thank you, Gerard.

    是的,絕對的。謝謝你,傑拉德。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manuel Navas, Piper Sandler.

    曼努埃爾·納瓦斯,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Manuel Navas - Equity Analyst

    Manuel Navas - Equity Analyst

  • Most of my questions have been asked, but I just wanted to check in on what are the market conditions that would impact your buyback? Just is that valuation, pricing? Are you targeting some sort of total return target? Just any kind of color more on the buyback pace, please?

    我的大部分問題都已經被問過了,但我只是想了解哪些市場狀況會影響你們的回購計劃?那究竟是估值還是定價?您是否設定了某種總報酬目標?任何顏色都可以,請加快回購速度好嗎?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • First, Manuel, I just want to welcome you to the call and thank you for picking up coverage for all the banks in Puerto Rico and supporting our island. So I appreciate it.

    首先,曼努埃爾,我只想歡迎你參加這次電話會議,並感謝你為波多黎各所有銀行提供保障,支持我們的島嶼。所以我很感激。

  • In terms of market conditions, I mean, we tend to do these on 10b5-1 plans. So certainly, changes in market prices that could impact the grids that we use. So that's certainly something unexpected, could be an accelerator or decelerator from the target number. But also global political, macroeconomic environment, and these are all things that impact our perception of what's happening and how quickly we want to execute on the repurchases.

    就市場狀況而言,我的意思是,我們傾向於按照 10b5-1 計劃來做這些。因此,市場價格的變化肯定會影響我們使用的電網。所以這確實是意料之外的事情,可能會加速或減緩目標數字的達成。但全球政治、宏觀經濟環境也會影響我們對正在發生的事情的看法,以及我們希望多快執行回購作業。

  • I will reiterate what Javier said, we believe that we find that our current share price are very attractive.

    我重申一下哈維爾的說法,我們認為我們目前的股價非常有吸引力。

  • Manuel Navas - Equity Analyst

    Manuel Navas - Equity Analyst

  • And the current share number in this quarter was nice and you like that pace, correct?

    本季目前的股價表現不錯,你也喜歡這樣的成長速度,對嗎?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • We like the total volume -- total dollar that we spent to be a good baseline.

    我們認為總交易額(即總支出金額)是一個很好的基準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Timur Braziler, Wells Fargo.

    蒂穆爾·布拉齊勒,富國銀行。

  • Timur Braziler - Analyst

    Timur Braziler - Analyst

  • Trying to put a finer point on auto expectations, can you just give us a little bit of color here as to what current demand looks like. And as you start looking out throughout the course of 2026, do you see this being a tough comp year kind of throughout the year? Or do trends start getting better, maybe post April once you kind of lapse through some of the pull forward when tariffs first got announced last year?

    為了更準確地闡述汽車市場的預期,您能否簡單介紹一下目前的需求?展望 2026 年,你認為這將是競爭激烈的一年嗎?或者,趨勢是否會在 4 月之後開始好轉,屆時去年關稅首次宣佈時帶來的一些影響將會消退?

  • Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

    Lidio Soriano - Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Corporate Risk Management Group

  • I'll give you a little bit -- this is Lidio. I'll give you a little bit of perspective in terms of the auto industry and maybe a little bit of perspective in terms of the outlook for 2026.

    我給你透露一點——這是利迪奧。我將從汽車產業的角度提供一些見解,或許還可以從 2026 年的前景角度提供一些見解給大家。

  • I mean if you look historically, prior to COVID, I mean new auto sales in Puerto Rico when you had a year above $100,000, that was a great year for the industry. over the recent years after COVID, numbers have been higher than that. I mean we had years of 120,000 was the record year for the industry.

    我的意思是,如果你回顧歷史,在新冠疫情之前,波多黎各的新車銷量如果一年超過10萬美元,那對整個產業來說就是非常好的一年。而新冠疫情之後的幾年裡,銷售數字都高於這個水準。我的意思是,我們曾經有過年銷量達到 12 萬輛的記錄,那是該行業的最高紀錄。

  • This year, we are ending up the year around 111,000, which were 9% down from the previous year. And the expectation for the industry is to be slightly down 5% and the numbers that we have. But I will say, still, I mean, a year that it is above 110,000 or close to 110,000, but it's a great year for the industry in Puerto Rico.

    今年年底,我們的總人數約為 111,000 人,比前一年下降了 9%。產業預期將略微下降 5%,而我們目前掌握的數據也印證了這一點。但我仍然要說,我的意思是,如果這一年超過 11 萬輛或接近 11 萬輛,那麼對於波多黎各的旅遊業來說,這將是豐收的一年。

  • Timur Braziler - Analyst

    Timur Braziler - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then maybe asking the expense question a different way. I think historically, you've broken it down kind of into three different phases. With the first phase being to kind of change the mindset of the employee base and focusing on the customer, phase two being simplify the franchise, improve efficiency and then finally becoming a top-performing bank.

    好的。知道了。然後或許可以換個方式詢問費用問題。我認為從歷史上看,你可以把它大致分成三個不同的階段。第一階段是改變員工的思維方式,專注於客戶;第二階段是簡化特許經營,提高效率;最終成為業績頂尖的銀行。

  • I'm guessing between -- or I'm questioning, I guess, between phase one and phase two, the cost kind of associated with those, are they similar and your comment that you had to delay some technology expenditures and '25 that are running in; '26. Like are those costs similar as well? Or is one of those phases implicitly more expensive maybe than some of these other?

    我猜想——或者我質疑,我猜想,在第一階段和第二階段之間,與這些相關的成本是否相似,以及您提到的不得不推遲一些技術支出和 '25 正在運行;'26。這些成本也差不多嗎?或者說,其中某個階段的成本可能比其他階段更高?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I think the one thing that I would encourage us to think differently, there's no really phase driven I mean this is an arms race every day, whether it is other banks, fintechs, other competitors that are competing, everybody is competing for a user experience, a very unique and omnichannel, et cetera, we can come up with all the different buzzwords.

    我認為我想鼓勵大家換個角度思考,這並非一個階段性的,我的意思是,這是一場每天都在上演的軍備競賽,無論是與其他銀行、金融科技公司還是其他競爭對手,每個人都在爭奪用戶體驗,追求獨特且全渠道的體驗等等,我們可以列舉各種各樣的流行語。

  • We're happy with the level of investment that we're at. We know that there's more to do. And we're going to wake up tomorrow and have another new challenge that we'll have to evaluate and put on the queue for something else. I think that what's important is that we're very much focused on it. We have a strong investment discipline in terms of the projects that we're green lighting with our customer in mind, but also our employees. I think it's a combination that creates the operating leverage that we're looking for.

    我們對目前的投資水準感到滿意。我們知道還有更多工作要做。明天醒來,我們又將面臨新的挑戰,我們需要評估它,並將其列入其他事項的待辦事項清單。我認為重要的是我們非常專注於此。我們在選擇專案時秉持嚴格的投資紀律,不僅要考慮客戶,也要考慮員工。我認為正是這種組合創造了我們所尋求的經營槓桿。

  • But I think we need to really kind of think of this as a steady state and how do we focus and shift to adding value from our decisions. But Tim, there's a lot of things here that just become table stakes that we've got to do or risk falling behind. of things here that just become table stakes that we've got to do or risk falling behind.

    但我認為我們需要認真思考一下,這是一個穩定狀態,我們應該如何集中精力,轉變思路,從我們的決策中創造價值。但是提姆,這裡有很多事情都成了基本要求,我們必須做,否則就有落後的風險。

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And I don't -- that I don't see it as phases. I see it as a strategic framework which would help us, to Jorge's point, do our job, our jobs every day better, faster and quicker to tackle competition, which is not going to let down. As you know, everything is going quicker, faster. So we have a great position in Puerto Rico. We need to defend it but also grow it. And that's exactly what we're trying to do every day.

    是的。而且我不認為——我不把它看作是階段性的。我認為這是一個策略框架,正如豪爾赫所說,它將幫助我們更好、更快地完成我們每天的工作,以應對不會讓我們失望的競爭。如你所知,一切都在加速發展。因此,我們在波多黎各擁有非常有利的地位。我們需要捍衛它,也需要發展它。而這正是我們每天都在努力做的事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Berman, Bank of America.

    布蘭登·伯曼,美國銀行。

  • Brandon Berman - Analyst

    Brandon Berman - Analyst

  • Very nice quarter. I just wanted to build off of the last question on expenses. If we pull out the profit sharing incurred last year. It implies a little bit faster of a growth rate. And I was just hoping you'd be able to dissect the drivers of that. Is it the planned investments that were delayed that's causing the 100 basis point difference in the growth rate? Or is it something else? Any breakdown would be helpful.

    非常好的街區。我只是想就上一個關於費用的問題再補充一些內容。如果我們扣除去年產生的利潤分成。這意味著成長速度會稍快一些。我只是希望你能分析背後的驅動因素。是那些被延後的計畫投資導致了成長率100個基點的差異嗎?還是另有隱情?任何詳細的分析都將有所幫助。

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Brandon. Thanks for the question. First, I think if you look at where we ended up 2025 versus our original guide and even our guidance in the third quarter call, we did, I think, outpace or overperform in 2025. The teams have done a really good job to be focused on efficiency. We've done and implemented a lot of opportunities that are sustainable, and we'll continue to generate savings, but we also had some wins that resulted in maybe a benefit that we see in '25 that we won't see repeat in '26 or we'll see a lower level in '26 versus '25.

    是的。謝謝你,布蘭登。謝謝你的提問。首先,我認為,如果你看看我們 2025 年的最終目標與我們最初的指導,甚至是我們在第三季電話會議上的指導,我認為我們在 2025 年確實超越了預期。各隊在提高效率方面做得非常出色。我們已經做了很多可持續的事情,我們將繼續節省開支,但我們也取得了一些成功,這些成功可能在 2025 年帶來了一些好處,但在 2026 年我們可能不會再看到這些好處,或者 2026 年的收益水平會低於 2025 年。

  • And then when you add that to the continued investments in technology, I think we've talked in the past how as projects go near live, you start doubling up on expenses as you're supporting two platforms and kind of incurring the cost of licensing on the old platform and the cost of development in the new platform, et cetera, that tends to have some peaks and valleys, and that's part of kind of the noise that you're seeing in comparing the run rate.

    再加上對技術的持續投資,我想我們過去也討論過,隨著項目接近上線,由於要支持兩個平台,支出就會翻倍,既要承擔舊平台的許可成本,又要承擔新平台的開發成本等等,這往往會出現一些高峰和低谷,這也是你在比較運行率時看到的噪音的一部分。

  • But we will continue to invest in technology and continue to invest in our people and making sure that we are attracting talent. And those are the two biggest drivers when we look at year-over-year and our expectation of expense growth.

    但我們會繼續投資於技術,繼續投資我們的員工,並確保我們能夠吸引人才。當我們審視同比數據以及對支出成長的預期時,這兩個因素是最大的驅動因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kelly Motta, KBW.

    Kelly Motta,KBW。

  • Kelly Motta - Analyst

    Kelly Motta - Analyst

  • Thanks for letting me circle back. I apologize. I forgot there are so many people on this call. Just to dig down a bit into the NII guide and parsing that with your commentary for margin expansion. Thinking through the funding side, mainly deposits, you had some declines in brokered, you gave the range for government.

    謝謝您讓我有機會再補充。我道歉。我忘了這次通話有這麼多人。只是想深入研究 NII 指南,並結合你的評論來分析邊距擴展。從資金方面來看,主要是存款,經紀業務出現了一些下滑,你給了政府債券的發行範圍。

  • Embedded in your NII guide, do you have any thoughts around or, I guess, opportunity run off some higher cost funding, given the strong cash flows you're generating off the securities portfolio and overall outlook for core deposits in Puerto Rico here.

    在您的 NII 指南中,您是否考慮過利用一些成本更高的資金,考慮到您從證券投資組合中產生的強勁現金流以及波多黎各核心存款的整體前景?

  • Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Jorge Garcia - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Of course, our objective is not only to retain client deposits but also increase them, right? So we have been seeing good momentum in our retail network across all segments, affluent, mass affluent and mass. We've seen strong deposit growth in commercial, really led by corporate and small business. So we expect some of those trends to continue.

    當然,我們的目標不僅是留住客戶的存款,還要增加存款,對吧?因此,我們看到零售網路在所有細分市場(富裕客戶、大眾富裕客戶和大眾客戶)都呈現出良好的發展勢頭。我們看到商業存款實現了強勁成長,這主要得益於企業和小型企業的存款成長。因此,我們預計其中一些趨勢將會持續下去。

  • I think the opportunity on that NII is can we reduce the cost of the US deposits, and those are driven both by the competitive nature of online direct deposit, which are an important funding source for our US business. but we're also seeing strong competition in New York and the Florida markets.

    我認為淨利息收入的機會在於我們能否降低美國存款成本,這不僅受到線上直接存款競爭的驅動(線上直接存款是我們美國業務的重要資金來源),也受到紐約和佛羅裡達市場激烈競爭的影響。

  • The reality is that kind of for that incremental money and clients that are more rate sensitive, it's still very competitive out there. And it's our team's goal that we're very much focused on relationship growth. And if that begins to the loan relationship in the US, making sure that, that translates into deposit relationships that maybe impacts our loan growth guidance as we want our team to be more focused on those relationships and that profitability.

    現實情況是,對於那些對利率更敏感的客戶和增加的額外收入而言,市場競爭仍然非常激烈。我們團隊的目標是非常注重關係發展。如果這一切始於美國的貸款關係,那麼確保這能轉化為存款關係,這可能會影響我們的貸款成長預期,因為我們希望我們的團隊更專注於這些關係和獲利能力。

  • But at the end, no secret in banking that the deposits and low-cost transactional accounts and primacy with those clients are going to be the driver of that guide. And when we look at the outperformance this year, it was really driven by the growth in deposits in both of our markets.

    但歸根結底,銀行業眾所周知,存款、低成本的交易帳戶以及與這些客戶的密切關係才是該指南的驅動力。當我們回顧今年的優異表現時,會發現這實際上是由我們兩個市場存款的成長所推動的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our Q&A. I'll now hand back to Javier Ferrer for any final remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言權交還給哈維爾·費雷爾,請他作最後的總結發言。

  • Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Javier Ferrer - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thanks again for joining us and for your questions. We look forward to updating you on our first quarter results in April. Have a good day.

    再次感謝各位的參與與提問。我們期待在四月向您報告第一季業績。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。