Popular Inc (BPOP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the Popular Incorporated, first quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Elliot. I'll be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 Popular Incorporated 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我的名字是艾略特。今天我將擔任您的協調員。（操作員指示）

I would now like to hand over to Paul Cardillo, Investor Relations Officer, please go ahead.

現在我想把麥克風交給投資人關係官 Paul Cardillo，請講。

Good morning and thank you for joining us. With us on the call today is our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez; our President and COO, Javier Ferrer; our CFO, Jorge Garcia; and our CRO, Lidio Soriano. They'll review our results for the first quarter and then answer your questions. Other members of our management team will also be available during the Q&A session.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天參加電話會議的有我們的執行長 Ignacio Alvarez、我們的總裁兼營運長 Javier Ferrer、我們的財務長 Jorge Garcia 和我們的財務長 Lidio Soriano。他們將審查我們第一季的業績，然後回答您的問題。我們的管理團隊的其他成員也將參加問答環節。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding Popular, such as projections of revenue, earnings, credit quality, expenses, taxes, and capital structure, as well as statements regarding Popular’s plans and objectives. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會對 Popular 做出前瞻性陳述，例如收入、收益、信用品質、費用、稅收和資本結構的預測，以及有關 Popular 的計劃和目標的陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期，並受風險和不確定性的影響。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth within today's earnings release and our SEC filings. You may find today's press release and our SEC filings on our webpage at popular.com.

可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素已在今天的收益報告和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中列出。您可以在我們的網頁 popular.com 上找到今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件。

I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez.

現在我將電話轉給我們的執行長伊格納西奧·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Ignacio Alvarez)。

Thank you, Paul. Good morning to all. Before I begin, I'd like to apologize. I'm -- probably hearing my voice. I'm not feeling 100% today. I've been don't know the weather, so I've asked Javier to cover the business highlights.

謝謝你，保羅。大家早安。在我開始之前，我想道歉。我——可能聽到了我的聲音。我今天感覺不太好。我一直不知道天氣如何，所以我請哈維爾報道商業亮點。

Before turning over to him, I would like to make some comments regarding the announcement we made in February about my upcoming retirement on June 30 and the Board's appointment of Javier as my successor. Javier is a proven leader and has assumed increasing responsibilities and has demonstrated that he has the experience and vision to lead Popular.

在將權力移交給他之前，我想就我們在二月份宣布的我將於 6 月 30 日退休以及董事會任命哈維爾為我的繼任者一事發表一些評論。哈維爾是一位久經考驗的領導者，他承擔了越來越多的責任，並證明他擁有領導 Popular 的經驗和遠見。

He fosters a collaborative, high performance culture and will infuse new energy while ensuring a smooth transition into the CEO role. I am grateful for his support and friendship which began close to 35 years ago, and I am confident that under his leadership, Popular will continue to thrive. I have spent 15 incredibly rewarding years at Popular, leading this extraordinary organization since 2017 has been a privilege and the opportunity of a lifetime. I'm immensely proud of what we have achieved in recent years, thanks to the dedication and the hard work of our entire team. Well, there's no perfect time to retire, I am confident that the timing is right for this transition. Popular is in a strong position and well prepared for the future.

他培育了一種協作、高績效的文化，並將注入新的活力，同時確保順利過渡到執行長的角色。我感謝他近35年來的支持和友誼，我相信在他的領導下，Popular 將繼續蓬勃發展。我在 Popular 度過了 15 年非常有意義的時光，自 2017 年以來領導這個非凡的組織是我的榮幸，也是一生難得的機會。我對近年來所取得的成就感到無比自豪，這要歸功於我們整個團隊的奉獻和辛勤工作。好吧，退休沒有完美的時間，我相信這個轉變的時機是正確的。Popular 處於強勢地位，並為未來做好了充分準備。

With that, I hand it over to Javier.

說完，我把它交給了哈維爾。

Good morning. Thank you, Ignacio, for those incredible words. It has been one of my lives true privileges and gift to enjoy your company as a mentor, a dear friend and a partner. That said, please turn to slide 3 to discuss highlights of the first quarter.

早安.謝謝你，伊格納西奧，說了這些令人難以置信的話。能夠作為您的導師、摯友和合作夥伴與我相伴，是我一生中真正的榮幸和禮物之一。話雖如此，請翻到投影片 3 討論第一季的亮點。

Our net interest income increased by $15 million and the net interest margin expanded by 5 basis points to 3.4%, mainly driven by lower deposit costs. Loan balances increased by $146 million, primarily driven by the commercial and construction segments in Popular Bank.

我們的淨利息收入增加了 1,500 萬美元，淨利差擴大了 5 個基點，達到 3.4%，這主要得益於存款成本的降低。貸款餘額增加了 1.46 億美元，主要得益於 Popular Bank 的商業和建築部門。

Deposit balances grew by $935 million with both banks contributing to the increase. Credit quality improved led by lower net charge-offs and early delinquency. During the quarter, we repurchased $122 million in shares at an average price of roughly $96 per share. To date, we have repurchased $340 million of our current $500 million authorization.

存款餘額增加了 9.35 億美元，兩家銀行都做出了貢獻。由於淨沖銷額和早期拖欠率下降，信貸品質有所改善。本季度，我們以平均每股約 96 美元的價格回購了價值 1.22 億美元的股票。到目前為止，我們已經回購了目前 5 億美元授權中的 3.4 億美元。

Tangible book value per share increased by nearly $4 to approximately $72 driven by our quarterly net income and lower unrealized losses in our investment portfolio, offset in part by share repurchase activity and dividends in the period. Please turn to slide 4.

受季度淨收入和投資組合中未實現損失減少的推動，每股有形帳面價值增加了近 4 美元，達到約 72 美元，但部分抵消了本期間股票回購活動和股息的影響。請翻到幻燈片 4。

Before commenting on the business activity for the quarter, we would like to address the recent volatility due to tariff uncertainty, which has impacted markets and raised recession concerns. We are closely monitoring the situation and communicating with clients about its potential effects.

在評論本季的業務活動之前，我們想談談近期因關稅不確定性而產生的波動，影響了市場並引發了對經濟衰退的擔憂。我們正在密切關注事態發展並與客戶溝通其潛在影響。

Regardless, our strong balance sheet, diversified business mix and extraordinary team have consistently enabled us to perform well in uncertain times. This is the time to be focused on supporting and serving our clients and to demonstrate the strength of our great institution.

無論如何，我們強勁的資產負債表、多元化的業務組合和出色的團隊始終使我們能夠在不確定的時期表現良好。現在正是我們集中精力支持和服務客戶並展示我們偉大機構實力的時候。

As of the end of the first quarter, business activity in Puerto Rico continued to be solid as reflected in the favorable trends in total employment, consumer spending and other key economic data. The current employment rate of 5.5% continues to hover around the all-time lows. Consumer spending has been resilient and remains healthy.

截至第一季末，波多黎各的商業活動持續保持穩健，這體現在整體就業、消費者支出和其他關鍵經濟數據的良好趨勢。目前就業率為5.5%，繼續徘徊在歷史最低水準。消費者支出一直保持強勁且健康。

Combined credit and debit card sales for Banco Popular customers increased by approximately 6% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Mortgage loan balances at Banco Popular increased by $136 million in the first quarter, driven primarily by home purchase activity. Our auto loan and lease balances increased by $21 million compared to the fourth quarter as demand for new cars continue to be strong in Puerto Rico.

與 2024 年第一季相比，Banco Popular 客戶的信用卡和金融卡總銷售額成長了約 6%。第一季度，Banco Popular 的抵押貸款餘額增加了 1.36 億美元，主要由購房活動推動。由於波多黎各對新車的需求持續強勁，我們的汽車貸款和租賃餘額與第四季度相比增加了 2,100 萬美元。

The tourism and hospitality sector continues to be a source of strength for the local economy. When compared to the same period a year ago, passenger traffic at the San Juan International Airport increased by 11% during the quarter. And as of February, the average daily rate and revenue per available room or RevPAR increased by 10% and 9%, respectively.

旅遊和酒店業繼續成為當地經濟的強勁來源。與去年同期相比，本季聖胡安國際機場的客運量增加了 11%。截至 2 月份，平均每日房價和每間可用客房收入（RevPAR）分別增加了 10％ 和 9％。

Hotel occupancy exceeded 75%. We continue to expect that the ongoing disbursement of federal disaster recovery funds will support economic activity in Puerto Rico for several years.

飯店入住率超過75%。我們繼續預計，持續撥付的聯邦災難復原資金將在未來幾年支持波多黎各的經濟活動。

And on that note, I turn the call over to Jorge for a more detail -- more details on our financial results.

關於這一點，我將電話轉給 Jorge，以了解更多有關我們財務表現的詳細資訊。

Thank you, Javier. Good morning, and thank you all for joining the call today. Please turn to slide 5. We are very pleased with the quarter's results, particularly with the deposit activity, the NII growth and the expansion of the NIM. Despite all the uncertainty in the economic outlook, we started the year on a strong footing.

謝謝你，哈維爾。早安，感謝大家今天參加電話會議。請翻到投影片 5。我們對本季的業績非常滿意，尤其是存款活動、NII 成長和 NIM 擴張。儘管經濟前景充滿不確定性，但我們今年的開局依然強勁。

Net interest income increased by $15 million, driven by asset repricing in our investment portfolio as well as lower deposit costs in both banks. As anticipated, loan growth in the quarter was slower after a very strong Q4. Loan balances increased by $146 million, led by the US segment.

淨利息收入增加了 1500 萬美元，這得益於我們投資組合中的資產重新定價以及兩家銀行存款成本的降低。正如預期的那樣，繼第四季度表現強勁之後，本季的貸款成長有所放緩。貸款餘額增加了 1.46 億美元，其中美國部分貸款增加最多。

At PB, we saw increases in commercial and construction lending. And at BPPR, we continue to see an increase in mortgage loans. However, as discussed in our Q4 webcast, we received some large commercial loan repayments that impacted the ending balances.

在 PB，我們看到商業和建築貸款增加。在 BPPR，我們看到抵押貸款持續增加。然而，正如我們在第四季度網路廣播中所討論的那樣，我們收到了一些大額商業貸款償還，這影響了期末餘額。

Ending deposit balance has increased by $935 million, while average balances grew by $1.4 billion. At the end of the first quarter, Puerto Rico Public deposits were $19.6 billion, an increase of approximately $160 million when compared to Q4.

期末存款餘額增加了 9.35 億美元，平均餘額增加了 14 億美元。第一季末，波多黎各公共存款為 196 億美元，與第四季相比增加約 1.6 億美元。

We continue to expect public deposits to be in the range of $18 billion to $20 billion. At BPPR, excluding Puerto Rico public deposits, ending in average deposits each grew by approximately $400 million. And at PB, ending deposit balances increased by approximately $250 million, net of intercompany.

我們仍然預計公共存款將在 180 億美元至 200 億美元之間。在 BPPR，不包括波多黎各的公共存款，平均每筆存款增加了約 4 億美元。在 PB，扣除公司間往來後，期末存款餘額增加了約 2.5 億美元。

We're very happy with the successful efforts of our teams and their focus on deposit retention and growth strategies. Our net interest margin expanded by 5 basis points on a GAAP basis and 11 basis points on a tax equivalent basis, driven by lower deposit costs, and a larger balance of tax-exempt investment securities.

我們對團隊的成功努力以及他們對存款保留和成長策略的關注感到非常高興。由於存款成本降低和免稅投資證券餘額增加，我們的淨利差按 GAAP 計算擴大了 5 個基點，按稅收等值計算擴大了 11 個基點。

Noninterest income was $152 million, a decrease of $13 million compared to Q4 and below the low end of our 2025 quarterly guidance. The primary reason for the delta versus our expectations was a $3 million unfavorable variance in the fair value adjustment of our MSRs and lower-than-anticipated income from equity method investments.

非利息收入為 1.52 億美元，與第四季相比減少 1,300 萬美元，低於我們 2025 年季度指引的低端。與我們的預期相比出現差異的主要原因是我們的 MSR 的公允價值調整存在 300 萬美元的不利差異，以及權益法投資的收入低於預期。

We continue to expect quarterly noninterest income to be in the range of $155 million to $160 million during 2025. As Lidio will cover in detail, credit metrics improved across the board during the quarter. Total operating expenses were $471 million, an increase of $3 million when compared to last quarter. The largest expense increase in the quarter was related to higher personnel costs, driven by annual incentive awards and payroll taxes that are normally higher in Q1, offset in part by lower business promotion expenses, which tend to be seasonally higher during the fourth quarter.

我們繼續預計 2025 年季度非利息收入將在 1.55 億美元至 1.6 億美元之間。如 Lidio 所詳細介紹的，本季信貸指標全面改善。總營運費用為 4.71 億美元，與上一季相比增加 300 萬美元。本季最大的費用成長與人員成本增加有關，這主要是由於年度獎勵和工資稅通常在第一季度較高，但業務推廣費用的降低（第四季度業務推廣費用往往季節性較高）部分抵消了這一增長。

We continue to expect full year 2025 expenses to increase by approximately 4% when compared to 2024. Our effective tax rate in the first quarter was 20%, flat with Q4. In 2025, we expect the effective tax rate for the year to be in a range of 19% to 21%. Please turn to slide 6.

我們仍預期 2025 年全年支出將比 2024 年增加約 4%。我們第一季的有效稅率為20%，與第四季持平。2025年，我們預計年度有效稅率將在19%至21%之間。請翻到幻燈片 6。

We continue to reinvest the maturities of our US treasury note portfolio in two and three year treasuries, buying approximately $900 million at an average yield of around 4.2% during the quarter. We expect to continue this strategy to lessen our sensitivity to lower rates while maintaining a similar duration in the investment portfolio.

我們繼續將美國國債投資組合的到期日再投資於兩年期和三年期國債，本季購買了約 9 億美元，平均殖利率約為 4.2%。我們希望繼續這項策略，以降低我們對較低利率的敏感性，同時保持投資組合的相似期限。

In BPPR, deposit costs decreased by 12 basis points to 1.55% mostly due to a 38 basis points reduction in the cost of market-linked public deposits. At Popular Bank, deposit costs decreased by 11 basis points during the quarter. While we have made progress in reducing the cost of our US deposits, we continue to see a lag in the reduction of deposit costs due to the competitive landscape of our US footprint and online deposit space as well as the high proportion of time deposits, which take longer to reprice.

在 BPPR，存款成本下降了 12 個基點至 1.55%，主要是由於與市場掛鉤的公共存款成本降低了 38 個基點。在 Popular Bank，本季存款成本下降了 11 個基點。雖然我們在降低美國存款成本方面取得了進展，但由於我們在美國的業務和線上存款空間的競爭格局以及定期存款的比例很高（重新定價的時間更長），存款成本的降低仍然滯後。

When we provided loan growth guidance in January, we expected the rate of growth to accelerate as the year progressed. Despite growing uncertainty about the economic outlook, demand for credit in Puerto Rico remains strong. In our US market, demand for credit was stable during the first quarter as we continue to benefit from draws from ongoing construction projects and loan growth in our health care and community association lending business.

當我們在一月份提供貸款成長指引時，我們預計隨著時間的推移，成長率將會加快。儘管經濟前景的不確定性日益增加，波多黎各的信貸需求仍然強勁。在我們的美國市場，第一季信貸需求保持穩定，因為我們繼續受益於正在進行的建設項目的提振以及醫療保健和社區協會貸款業務的貸款增長。

While the impact of tariffs on economic activity may affect loan demand, we believe that we can achieve our original loan growth guidance of 3% to 5% for 2025. However, given the overall environment, now we see the lower end of that range as a more likely scenario.

雖然關稅對經濟活動的影響可能會影響貸款需求，但我們相信我們可以實現我們最初設定的2025年3%至5%的貸款成長預期。然而，考慮到整體環境，我們現在認為該範圍的下限更有可能出現。

We expect NII to increase by 7% to 9% this year and anticipate further NIM expansion, driven by continued reinvestment of maturing lower-yielding securities and loan originations in the current rate environment as well as lower cost of online deposits at Popular Bank. Please turn to slide 7.

我們預計今年 NII 將成長 7% 至 9%，並且預計 NIM 將進一步擴大，這得益於當前利率環境下到期低收益證券和貸款發放的持續再投資，以及 Popular Bank 線上存款成本的降低。請翻到幻燈片 7。

Regulatory capital levels remain strong. Our CET1 ratio of 16.1% increased by 8 basis points from Q4, mainly due to quarterly net income that was somewhat offset by capital actions during the period. Tangible book value per share at the end of the quarter was $72.02, an increase of $3.86 per share from Q4, driven by our net income and lower unrealized losses in our MBS portfolio, offset in part by our capital return activity during the quarter.

監理資本水準依然強勁。我們的 CET1 比率為 16.1%，較第四季度增加了 8 個基點，主要原因是季度淨收入在一定程度上被本期間的資本行動所抵銷。本季末每股有形帳面價值為 72.02 美元，較第四季增加 3.86 美元，這得益於我們的淨收入和 MBS 投資組合中未實現損失的減少，但部分被我們本季度的資本回報活動所抵消。

During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately $122 million in shares at an average price of $96 per share. And as of the end of March, we had $160 million remaining of our existing $500 million authorization. Return on tangible common equity for the quarter was 11.4%, an increase of 14 basis points from last quarter, driven by stable net income and buyback activity. We continue to anticipate at least a 12% roughly in the fourth quarter of this year. Longer term, we remain focused on achieving a sustainable 14% return on tangible common equity.

第一季度，我們以平均每股 96 美元的價格回購了價值約 1.22 億美元的股票。截至 3 月底，我們現有的 5 億美元授權中還剩餘 1.6 億美元。本季有形普通股權益報酬率為 11.4%，較上一季增加 14 個基點，這得益於穩定的淨收入和回購活動。我們繼續預計今年第四季的成長率至少為 12% 左右。長遠來看，我們仍將致力於實現有形普通股權益可持續 14% 的回報率。

With that, I turn over the call to Lidio.

說完，我把電話轉給了 Lidio。

Thank you, Jorge, and good morning. Credit quality metrics improved during the first quarter with lower early delinquencies, NPLs, inflows and net charge-offs. Our mortgage and commercial loan portfolios continue to reflect credit metrics significantly below pre-pandemic levels.

謝謝你，豪爾赫，早安。第一季信貸品質指標有所改善，早期拖欠率、不良貸款率、資金流入量和淨沖銷額均有所下降。我們的抵押貸款和商業貸款組合反映出的信貸指標仍然遠低於疫情前的水平。

As we have discussed in previous calls, we have been encouraged by the performance of our most recent consumer vintages. During the quarter, our consumer portfolio reflected lower delinquencies, NPLs and net charge-offs driven by our auto and personal loan portfolios.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的，我們最近的消費年份的表現令我們感到鼓舞。在本季度，我們的消費者貸款組合反映出較低的拖欠率、不良貸款率和淨沖銷率，這主要得益於我們的汽車和個人貸款組合。

Over the years, we have managed credit under different macroeconomic and operating environments. And more recently, we have taken several credit tightening actions to reduce our exposure to riskier borrowers. We continue to carefully monitor the performance of our book and response to the environment accordingly. We are confident that the improvement in the risk profile of our loan portfolio positions Popular to operate successfully on the more difficult economic conditions.

多年來，我們在不同的宏觀經濟和經營環境下管理信貸。最近，我們採取了多項信貸緊縮措施，以減少對高風險借款人的風險敞口。我們將繼續密切關注我們的圖書表現並相應地對環境做出反應。我們相信，貸款組合風險狀況的改善將使Popular能夠在更困難的經濟條件下成功運作。

Turning to slide number 8. Nonperforming assets and loans decreased during the quarter, driven by BPPR. NPLs in BPPR decreased by $30 million, driven by lower auto, mortgage and commercial loans. Commercial NPLs decrease driven by $9 million single loan payoff during the first quarter of 2025.

翻到第 8 張投影片。在 BPPR 的推動下，本季不良資產和貸款有所減少。由於汽車、抵押貸款和商業貸款減少，BPPR 的不良貸款減少了 3000 萬美元。2025 年第一季度，商業不良貸款減少，原因是單筆貸款還款額為 900 萬美元。

NPLs in Popular Bank decreased by $7 million driven by a single loan sale. OREOs decreased by $5 million driven by sales of residential real estate properties in Puerto Rico. Increase of NPLs decreased by $16 million quarter-over-quarter. In BPPR, total inflows decreased by $11 million, driven by lower mortgage inflows. In Popular Bank, a decrease of $7 million was driven by lower commercial inflows. The ratio of NPLs to total loans held in portfolio decreased 11 basis points to 84 basis points.

受一筆貸款出售的推動，Popular Bank 的不良貸款減少了 700 萬美元。由於波多黎各住宅房地產銷售的推動，奧利奧銷售額下降了 500 萬美元。不良貸款增加額比上一季減少1,600萬美元。在 BPPR，由於抵押貸款流入減少，總流入量減少了 1,100 萬美元。在 Popular Bank，由於商業流入減少，其存款減少了 700 萬美元。不良貸款與貸款組合總額比率下降11個基點至84個基點。

Turning to slide number 9. Net charge-offs amounted to $49 million or annualized 53 basis points compared to $67 million or 74 basis points in the prior quarter. Net charge-off in BPPR decreased by [$16 million], driven by lower consumer by $11 million and lower commercial related to the commercial NPL payoff I mentioned earlier. In Popular Bank, net charge-offs decreased by $3 million.

翻到第 9 張投影片。淨沖銷金額為 4,900 萬美元，折合成年率為 53 個基點，而上一季為 6,700 萬美元，折合成年率為 74 個基點。BPPR 的淨沖銷額減少了 [1,600 萬美元]，因為消費者支出減少了 1,100 萬美元，以及與我之前提到的商業不良貸款償付相關的商業支出減少了。在 Popular Bank，淨沖銷額減少了 300 萬美元。

In our prior webcast, we provided guidance for the 2025 full year net charge-offs estimating a range of between 70 basis points to 90 basis points. Considering the performance of the loan portfolio in the first quarter and short-term outlook, we could lower our guidance. However, given the uncertainty and fluidity of the current environment, we are not changing our estimates at this time.

在我們之前的網路廣播中，我們提供了 2025 年全年淨沖銷的指導，估計範圍在 70 個基點到 90 個基點之間。考慮到第一季貸款組合的表現和短期前景，我們可能會下調我們的預期。然而，鑑於當前環境的不確定性和流動性，我們目前不會改變我們的估計。

Please turn to slide number 10. The allowance for credit losses increased by $16 million to $762 million. The increase in the ACL was driven by changes in the probability weights of economic scenarios, coupled with increases in qualitative reserves, offset in part by improvements in credit quality and changes in portfolio mix.

請翻到第 10 張投影片。信貸損失準備金增加了 1,600 萬美元，達到 7.62 億美元。ACL 的增加是由經濟情境機率權重的變化以及定性儲備的增加所驅動，但部分被信貸品質的提高和投資組合的變化所抵消。

We leverage multiple scenarios to estimate our ACL. In response to the current economic uncertainty, we increased the weight assigned to the pessimistic scenario, causing an $18 million increase in the ACL. In the BPPR, the ACL increased by $6 million, driven by the change in probability weights offsetting in part by improvements in the credit quality of our commercial and consumer portfolio.

我們利用多種場景來估計我們的 ACL。為了因應當前的經濟不確定性，我們增加了悲觀情景的權重，導致 ACL 增加了 1800 萬美元。在 BPPR 中，ACL 增加了 600 萬美元，這是由於機率權重的變化所致，但部分抵消了我們商業和消費者投資組合信用品質的提高。

In Popular Bank, the ACL increased by $11 million, driven by the change in probability weight and higher qualitative resource for the CRE portfolio. The corporation ratio of the ACL to loans held in portfolio was 205 basis points compared to 201 basis points in the prior quarter, while the ratio of the ACL to NPL was 243% compared to 213% in the previous quarter.

在 Popular Bank，ACL 增加了 1,100 萬美元，這得益於機率權重的變化以及 CRE 投資組合定性資源的提高。ACL 與投資組合所持貸款的公司比率為 205 個基點，而上一季為 201 個基點，而 ACL 與 NPL 的比率為 243%，而上一季為 213%。

The provision for credit losses was $64 million compared to $66 million in the prior quarter, and BPPR, the provision was $53 million compared to $67 million, while in Popular Bank, the provision was $13 million compared to $2 million in the prior quarter. The combined provision to net charge-off ratio for the quarter was 132%.

信貸損失準備金為 6,400 萬美元，而上一季為 6,600 萬美元；BPPR 的信貸損失準備金為 5,300 萬美元，而上一季為 6,600 萬美元；而 Popular Bank 的信貸損失準備金為 1,300 萬美元，而上一季為 200 萬美元。本季綜合撥備與淨沖銷比率為 132%。

To summarize, credit quality metrics improved during the first quarter. We're attentive to the evolving environment, we are confident that the improvement in the risk profile of our loans portfolio will allow us to operate successfully under more difficult economic conditions.

總而言之，第一季信貸品質指標有所改善。我們關注不斷變化的環境，我們相信，貸款組合風險狀況的改善將使我們能夠在更困難的經濟條件下成功運作。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Ignacio for his concluding remarks. Ignacio?

最後，我想請伊格納西奧做最後發言。伊格納西奧？

Thank you, Lidio, and thank Javier, Lidio and Jorge for their updates. We are extremely pleased with our strong financial performance in the first quarter, we increased our net interest income, grew loans and deposits and maintained strong credit metrics. We also expanded our customer base and continued making progress on our transformation program. I want to express my sincere gratitude to our employees for hard work and support during my tenure.

謝謝你，Lidio，也感謝 Javier、Lidio 和 Jorge 的更新。我們對第一季強勁的財務業績感到非常滿意，我們的淨利息收入增加了，貸款和存款增加了，並且保持了強勁的信貸指標。我們也擴大了客戶群，並持續推動轉型計畫。我要向各位員工在我任職期間的辛勤工作和支持表示最誠摯的感謝。

I am grateful for our achievements as well as the challenges we face and conquered together. I wish Javier great success in a new role for which I believe he is more than ready. I'm confident that Javier and the team will take Popular to even greater heights. It has been an honor and a privilege to serve as CEO in the last 8 years, and I look forward to celebrating Popular's successes, albeit from a different vantage point for many years to come. We are now ready to answer your questions.

我感謝我們所取得的成就以及我們共同面對和克服的挑戰。我祝哈維爾在新職位上取得巨大成功，我相信他已經做好了充分的準備。我相信哈維爾和他的團隊將帶領 Popular 走向更高的高度。在過去的 8 年裡，我很榮幸能夠擔任首席執行官，我期待在未來的許多年裡從不同的角度慶祝 Popular 的成功。我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler.

弗蘭克·席拉爾迪，派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning Frank.

早安，弗蘭克。

First -- yeah, congrats to both of you, probably Javier and Ignacio. I wanted to start with kind of a broader question. You mentioned the macro uncertainty, the tariffs. Obviously, the news flow seems to change every day. But there's some obvious concerns there. There's also talks of potential benefits for the island and specifically, you hear about the comparative advantage in pharmaceuticals.

首先 —— 是的，祝賀你們兩位，可能是哈維爾和伊格納西奧。我想從一個更廣泛的問題開始。您提到了宏觀不確定性、關稅。顯然，新聞流似乎每天都在變化。但其中也存在一些明顯的擔憂。還有關於島上潛在利益的討論，特別是關於製藥業的比較優勢。

Obviously, it's still early days to try to figure all this out. But -- and again, things are changing quickly. But just wondering what you guys are hearing, seeing on the ground from clients in terms of talk of new investment on the island and how significant a headwind are things like the issues with the power grid.

顯然，現在弄清楚這一切還為時過早。但是——情況又在快速變化。但我只是想知道你們從客戶那裡聽到了什麼，看到了什麼，關於島上新投資的討論，以及電網問題等阻力有多大。

The power grid is -- I hate to answer it this way, but the power grid is not that significant issue because Puerto Rico has over time become very resilient to power outages. I was going to the airport the other day and I was shocked during the outage on how much light there was.

電網是——我不想這樣回答，但電網並不是一個重大問題，因為波多黎各隨著時間的推移已經變得非常能夠抵禦停電。前幾天我正要去機場，停電期間燈光的亮度讓我震驚。

So I don't think it's going to meet up for the industries that are here. It may be something that people have to think about when they decide to invest in Puerto Rico. But many people are in Puerto Rico, especially in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors are doing their own CHPs and power plants. So I think that's a relative cost on that for the benefit is small. So I don't think we've seen new pharmaceutical yet, Jorge, you were talking to someone from the industry the other day, right?

所以我不認為這會滿足這裡的產業需求。當人們決定在波多黎各投資時，這可能是必須考慮的事情。但波多黎各的許多人，尤其是製藥和醫療器材產業的人們，都在建立自己的熱電聯產和發電廠。所以我認為相對而言成本較小，收益也較小。所以我認為我們還沒有看到新的藥物，豪爾赫，前幾天你正在和業內人士交談，對嗎？

Right? Yeah, So there's definitely -- I mean, this is a priority for the government and for the team of that task bringing in investment to Puerto Rico. This is an area where we believe Puerto Rico stands out in that it's a known entity for companies considering reshoring. We have the proven skilled talent pool in Puerto Rico, and the financial incentives are still more attractive than any state side option. Remember, Puerto Rico, depending on how you measure it, it's either the number one or number two exporter of pharma products in the United States.

正確的？是的，所以肯定有——我的意思是，這是政府和為波多黎各引入投資的任務團隊的首要任務。我們認為，波多黎各在這方面表現突出，因為對於考慮回流的企業來說，它是一個知名的實體。我們在波多黎各擁有經過驗證的技術人才庫，而且財務激勵措施仍然比任何美國方面的選擇更具吸引力。請記住，波多黎各，取決於你如何衡量它，它要么是美國第一大或第二大醫藥產品出口國。

So there's definitely a robust industry. We still have capacity both from existing companies in Puerto Rico and for plants that were here before that may be kind of white box at this point. There's also CMO organizations in Puerto Rico that can ramp up to do third-party manufacturing.

因此，這肯定是一個強勁的行業。我們仍然擁有來自波多黎各現有公司的產能，以及之前在這裡的工廠的產能，這些工廠目前可能還是一種白盒子。波多黎各也有 CMO 組織可以開展第三方製造業務。

So it is an area that could be highlighted. I'd love to give you some example of a big win, but all we can talk right now is the strength of the industry and the anecdotal focus of the government and the teams that are hopes that have to bring this to Puerto Rico.

因此這是一個值得強調的領域。我很樂意給你舉一些重大勝利的例子，但我們現在所能談論的只是行業的實力、政府的軼事關注以及希望將其帶到波多黎各的團隊。

Got you. Okay. No, that's helpful. And then -- just switching gears as a follow-up. Just Jorge, I wonder if you could update us on your broad thoughts on deposit flows.

明白了。好的。不，這很有幫助。然後——只是轉換話題作為後續行動。只是 Jorge，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您對存款流動的整體看法。

I mean obviously, you had the outflows in the third quarter of last year, I think it was, you talked about the $600 million to $800 million additional at risk. Where are we now on that? You've had a couple of positive quarters on deposits. How seasonal is the growth in 1Q? And just your thoughts on flows through the year here?

我的意思是，顯然，去年第三季出現了資金流出，我想，你談到了 6 億到 8 億美元的額外風險。我們現在進展到哪一步了？你們的存款業務已經連續幾季呈現良好成長動能。第一季的成長有怎樣的季節性？您對全年的流量有什麼看法？

Sure. So first of all, happy with the efforts of the teams and their focus on deposit gathering. So teams have reacted as they usually do, and we're very happy with those results. There's a lot of momentum. During the first quarter, as you know, we do have historically some seasonality related to tax refunds.

當然。首先，我對團隊的努力及其對存款收集的關注感到高興。因此各支球隊都像往常一樣做出了反應，我們對這些結果非常滿意。勢頭強勁。如您所知，在第一季度，我們確實存在與退稅相關的一些季節性因素。

So we did see that in our retail business. We're running around $200 million ahead of last year in terms of tax refunds in our client accounts. We continue to expect more tax refunds in April and maybe a little bit into May. In terms of the deposits, when we look at our balances today, we're about 35% higher on average balance when compared to pre-pandemic. You may remember that the peak was 50%. And that was in 2022 when our clients were benefiting from a lot of federal stimulus.

我們確實在零售業務中看到了這一點。我們客戶帳戶的退稅金額比去年增加了約 2 億美元。我們預計 4 月退稅會更多，5 月退稅可能還會更多。就存款而言，當我們查看今天的餘額時，我們發現與疫情前相比，平均餘額高出了約 35%。您可能還記得高峰是 50%。那是在 2022 年，當時我們的客戶受益於大量聯邦刺激措施。

One of the interesting things that we see is that when we compare the inflows into our clients' accounts that have continued after 2022, our clients are actually getting more inflows today than they were in 2022, and that's driven by the higher earnings and higher wages higher economic activity that's ongoing in Puerto Rico.

我們發現的一個有趣的現像是，當我們比較 2022 年後持續流入客戶帳戶的資金時，我們發現客戶今天獲得的資金流入實際上比 2022 年更多，這是由波多黎各持續更高的收入、更高的工資和更高的經濟活動所推動的。

So that gives us some confidence that the baseline is tracking to where we think it would be. When we look at retail clients getting tax refunds, we do expect some of them to spend some of those refunds like they did last year. So we'll see how the trends, whether they repeat and to what magnitude in the second or third quarter. But also given the uncertainty in the environment right now, we would also expect some clients to counteract that with maintaining higher balances or perhaps curtailing some of their spend activity.

因此，這給了我們一些信心，基線正在追蹤到我們認為的位置。當我們看到零售客戶獲得退稅時，我們確實預計他們中的一些人會像去年一樣花掉部分退稅。因此，我們將觀察趨勢如何，它們是否會在第二季或第三季重複，以及重複程度如何。但考慮到目前環境的不確定性，我們也預期一些客戶會透過維持更高的餘額或減少部分支出活動來抵銷這種影響。

So I think the bottom line, we are outpacing where we thought we would be in deposits at this time of the year, very happy with the efforts and our team's focus. And we'll see where we turn out in the second and third quarter, but glad to be starting from this point forward.

因此，我認為最重要的是，我們的存款成長速度超出了我們預期，我們對團隊的努力和專注感到非常滿意。我們將看看第二季和第三季的結果，但很高興從現在開始。

Great. And then just thinking about the seasonality, again, is it still fair to think that 3Q is probably the trough from a seasonality standpoint for deposits?

偉大的。然後再考慮季節性，從季節性的角度來看，認為第三季可能是存款的低谷是否仍然公平？

That's what we saw in 2024, we'll have to see how it goes. We would expect continued tax refunds, like I said, through early May. Last year, we did begin to see some of the spend occur in the second quarter. So it will just depend on the speed and magnitude. But again, we think the point of baseline should trend higher.

這就是我們在 2024 年看到的，我們必須看看它如何發展。正如我所說，我們預計退稅將持續到五月初。去年，我們確實開始看到一些支出發生在第二季。所以這只取決於速度和幅度。但我們再次認為基線點應該呈現上升趨勢。

Got you. Okay, I appreciate the color. Thanks.

明白了。好的，我很欣賞這個顏色。謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you. Ignacio, congratulations on your retirement, and Javier, congratulations on taking over the new role. With that, Javier -- you're welcome. Javier, can you share with us your view of where you see Popular under your leadership? Will it differ at all from the last three or four years? What do you see for Popular in a big picture?

謝謝。伊格納西奧，祝賀你退休；哈維爾，祝賀你擔任新職務。就這樣，哈維爾——不用客氣。哈維爾，您能否與我們分享您對在您的領導下 Popular 的看法？它與過去三、四年有什麼不同嗎？從總體上看，您如何看待“流行”？

Well, I continue to see Popular as the preeminent financial institution in Puerto Rico. I think we're only getting stronger. Our transformation efforts continue to show results and accelerate. I see us becoming stronger in certain areas such as payments or money movement. I see us strengthening our market-leading omnichannel experience for our customers and executing our strategy.

嗯，我仍然認為 Popular 是波多黎各最傑出的金融機構。我認為我們只會變得更強大。我們的轉型努力不斷取得成效並加速推進。我看到我們在某些​​領域變得更加強大，例如支付或資金流動。我看到我們正在為客戶加強市場領先的全通路體驗並執行我們的策略。

I don't -- I think it's going to be about execution, building on what the team has done under Ignacio's great leadership. So steady as it goes with those sort of nuanced areas that I just described. And of course, we're going for that 12% at the end of this year, ROTCE as Ignacio and Jorge have said before, with a view to get to the 14% ROTCE on a sustainable basis. So that's what I see.

我不這麼認為——我認為這將與執行有關，在伊格納西奧的出色領導下，團隊已經取得了進展。因此，它與我剛才描述的那些細微領域保持穩定。當然，正如 Ignacio 和 Jorge 之前所說，我們的目標是在今年年底將 ROTCE 提高到 12%，並希望以可持續的方式達到 14% 的 ROTCE。這就是我所看到的。

Very good. And I know on these calls in the past, discussions about capital levels always come up and share repurchases. You announced $122 million in buybacks this quarter. The authorization continues, of course, into the remainder of 2025. In view of it appears from the US regulatory standpoint that the regulators are going to maybe loosen the corset around the banking industry to ease up on maybe some of the capital requirements, do you guys see for you folks, your CET1 ratio even with the buyback when higher this quarter. Any way of kind of projecting for us what's a comfortable level above your peers?

非常好。我知道，在過去的電話會議上，總是會討論資本水準和股票回購的問題。本季你們宣布回購 1.22 億美元。當然，授權將持續到 2025 年剩餘時間。鑑於從美國監管角度來看，監管機構可能會放鬆對銀行業的限制，以減輕部分資本要求，你們是否認為，即使本季度進行了回購，你們的 CET1 比率也會更高？有什麼方法可以預測一下，在同儕中，什麼樣的水平才是舒適的？

So I know there is the Puerto Rico kind of premium or excess that you need to carry, but it seems like your capital levels are so strong or too strong that you could lower them maybe more optimally with a stronger buyback over the next 12 to 18 months?

所以我知道您需要承擔波多黎各式的溢價或超額，但似乎您的資本水平如此強勁或太強勁，以至於您可以通過在未來 12 到 18 個月內進行更強勁的回購來降低它們，也許效果更佳？

Gerard, good morning. It's Jorge. We share in your perspective in that we have robust capital and certainly our -- we've spoken in the past about having a cushion or a spread against peer averages given our geographic concentration in Puerto Rico. We don't believe that it needs to be 500 basis points or 600 basis points, depending on how you measure it today.

杰拉德，早安。是豪爾赫。我們與您有著相同的觀點，即我們擁有雄厚的資本，而且我們過去曾談到，鑑於我們在波多黎各的地理集中度，我們相對於同行平均水平具有緩衝或利差。我們認為它不需要達到 500 個基點或 600 個基點，這取決於你今天如何衡量它。

However, on the other hand, we have also said that we will be measured in our reduction of capital and doing over time. We do have an active authorization and will correct. The authorization is open-ended. It does not expire in 2025. our intent to make sure that we are always working with some level of open authorization that we can execute upon and have the flexibility to do that.

但另一方面，我們也說過，我們會適度減少資本，逐漸增加。我們確實擁有有效的授權並且將會修正。授權是無限期的。它不會在 2025 年到期。我們的目的是確保我們始終在一定程度的開放授權下工作，我們可以執行這些授權，並且具有這樣做的靈活性。

I read you and we hear it from many of our investors trying to have a target of CET1 out there. I think when we can share that along with the path and a plan to get to those targets, I think that will be the right time for us to kind of stick that flag with a level of confidence and a path to get there. But in the meantime, focus on return on the level of capital that we have focused on executing and making sure that we are active and returning capital to our shareholders, both in organic growth and in capital returns through dividends and repurchases.

我讀了您的文章，也聽到許多投資者試圖實現 CET1 目標。我認為，當我們能夠分享實現這些目標的路徑和計劃時，我認為這將是我們以一定的信心和實現目標的路徑堅持這一目標的最佳時機。但同時，我們重點關注的是資本水準的回報，我們專注於執行並確保我們積極地向股東返還資本，包括有機成長和透過股息和回購實現的資本回報。

Very good, Jorge. And just as a quick follow-up on your comment about the open authorization, once you've satisfied the $500 million that you were authorized from, I think, the third or fourth quarter of last year, once you satisfy that amount, what's the procedure to increase the authorization further?

非常好，豪爾赫。關於您關於公開授權的評論，我想問一下，一旦您滿足了去年第三季或第四季授權的 5 億美元，那麼進一步增加授權的程序是什麼？

So for us, we have a process that we run, it's not this much different than we used to, right, it's heavily based on our internal stress test, based on the Fed scenarios and obviously adjusted for Puerto Rico. Talking to our Board, looking at our organic growth brands, looking at our strategic plans and making sure that we consider the overall environment and going to our Board and communicating with our regulators of our plans.

所以對我們來說，我們有一個正在運行的流程，它與我們以前沒有太大的不同，對吧，它很大程度上基於我們的內部壓力測試，基於美聯儲的情景，並且顯然針對波多黎各進行了調整。與我們的董事會交談，審視我們的有機成長品牌，審視我們的策略計劃，確保我們考慮整體環境，並與我們的董事會和監管機構溝通我們的計劃。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

You're welcome, Gerard.

別客氣，傑拉德。

Timur Braziler, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Timur Braziler。

Hi, good morning. Starting on NII, impressive start to the year, just looking at first quarter performance versus guidance and your thoughts around maybe upper versus lower levels of the guide? And what would you actually need to see for the pace of the top line growth to flow into that kind of lower end range?

嗨，早安。從 NII 開始，今年的開局令人印象深刻，只需看一下第一季的表現與指導，以及您對指導的上限和下限的看法？那麼，您實際上需要看到什麼才能使營業收入成長速度進入這種較低範圍？

I mean I think certainly, we have some tailwinds in the reinvestment of our investment portfolio. Certainly, in addition to that, loan originations, the demand for loans, adds to that NII growth. But ultimately, the deposit mix and the deposit costs are a big driver, Timur. So as I said, we're very happy with the levels of deposits. We'll see kind of client behavior and the efforts or continued efforts of our teams. But certainly, that mix cost and levels will have an impact on where we end up in that 7% to 9% range.

我的意思是，我認為我們的投資組合再投資確實有一些順風。當然，除此之外，貸款發放、貸款需求也促進了 NII 的成長。但最終，存款組合和存款成本是一個重要的驅動因素，Timur。正如我所說，我們對存款水準非常滿意。我們將看到客戶的行為以及我們團隊的努力或持續的努力。但可以肯定的是，混合成本和水準將對我們最終達到 7% 到 9% 的範圍產生影響。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess just on deposits. Looking at DDAs and specific, just end of period versus the average discrepancy is the expectation that some of that build towards quarter-end exits in 2Q? And then just as you think about this mass affluent strategy, can you kind of ring fence the portion of DDA that might be at risk of migrating it to higher cost categories as the strategy plays out?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我猜只是關於存款。查看 DDA 和具體情況，僅查看期末與平均差異，是否預計其中一些差異會在第二季的季末退出時形成？然後，正如您考慮這個大眾富裕策略一樣，隨著策略的實施，您是否可以對可能面臨遷移到更高成本類別風險的 DDA 部分進行隔離？

Yeah. One thing I want to remind you is that in the fourth quarter, we launched a new product targeted to our mass affluent client base. And we have reclassified, I think it's around $600 million from demand -- noninterest-bearing demand deposits to a low-cost, interest-bearing transaction account. So that's why you're seeing kind of the discrepancy where you see a significant reduction in average balances of the demand, but you don't see it in ending balances because that had already been embedded in the year-end numbers.

是的。我想提醒大家的一件事是，在第四季度，我們推出了一款針對大眾富裕客戶群的新產品。我們已經重新分類，我認為大約有 6 億美元從需求（無息活期存款）轉移到低成本、有息交易帳戶。所以這就是為什麼你會看到這種差異：你看到需求的平均餘額顯著減少，但在期末餘額中卻看不到它，因為這已經嵌入在年終數字中了。

So -- that is to say that I wouldn't expect that trend to repeat organically, right. So in terms of the cannibalization of people moving to higher cost deposits. We haven't really seen that in Puerto Rico. We do see it in the US that's more prevalent in our US business, not in Puerto Rico. And part of that is driven by average balances, the levels of average balances in Puerto Rico are commercial and corporate clients working capital requirements, et cetera, so.

所以——也就是說，我不會期望這種趨勢自然而然地重複，對吧。因此，就人們轉向更高成本存款的蠶食而言。我們在波多黎各還沒有真正見過這種情況。我們確實在美國看到了這種情況，這種情況在我們的美國業務中更為普遍，而不是在波多黎各。其中一部分是由平均餘額驅動的，波多黎各的平均餘額水準是商業和企業客戶的營運資金需求等等。

Okay. And then just last for me, a follow-up on the buyback. Popular was one of the more conservative banks when rates started hiking and pausing the buyback, level of uncertainty is higher today. Does this rise to that same kind of level or maybe you guys would pause and take a step back and gauge what's going on in the macro? Or is the comfort level internally enough where the buyback resumes here despite some of the near-term uncertainty?

好的。最後，我要跟進回購事宜。當利率開始調漲並暫停回購時，Popular 是較保守的銀行之一，如今不確定性水準更高。這是否會上升到同樣的水平，或者也許你們會停下來，退後一步，評估一下宏觀發生了什麼？或者，儘管存在一些近期的不確定性，但內部的舒適度是否足夠高，以至於可以恢復回購？

This is Ignacio. These are discussions we have on a constant basis with our Board. I don't see anything today that would cause us to do that. Well, obviously, we're very vigilant.

這是伊格納西奧。這些都是我們與董事會經常進行的討論。我今天沒有看到任何會促使我們這樣做的事情。嗯，顯然我們非常警惕。

If something really bad happens, we would take action.

如果真的發生了糟糕的事情，我們就會採取行動。

Great, thank you and congratulations both Ignacio and Javier.

太好了，謝謝你，恭喜 Ignacio 和 Javier。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jared Shaw, Barclays Capital.

巴克萊資本的賈里德·肖 (Jared Shaw)。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the questions. And just to echo everybody's congratulations as well for me. And Ignacio, good luck with your next steps.

嘿，早安。感謝您的提問。也請大家向我表示祝賀。伊格納西奧，祝你下一步一切順利。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I think maybe looking at the potential opportunity for onshoring in Puerto Rico, is there anything else, any other incentives the government is offering to apart from the pharma industries? Is there an opportunity to attract new industry?

我認為，也許看看波多黎各在岸生產的潛在機會，除了製藥業之外，政府還提供了其他什麼激勵措施？是否有機會吸引新興產業？

Or is it really most of the efforts focused around pharmaceuticals?

或者說大部分努力確實集中在藥品上？

The incentives are not directed only to the pharmaceuticals. They are across different industries the government is trying to promote. However, because of the huge amount of money that they make, it's much more attractive for the pharmaceutical company. So two other areas that have been gaining traction. One is the medical device. And again, they have a good profit margin and recently aerospace. And aerospace has a different incentive because much of what the aerospace industry produces in Puerto Rico for the US military. And by law, it has to be made in the US. So that's an advantage we have there.

這些激勵措施並非只針對藥品。他們來自政府試圖推動的不同產業。然而，由於他們賺取的巨額金錢，這對製藥公司來說更具吸引力。另外兩個領域也正在獲得關注。一是醫療器材。而且，他們的利潤率很高，最近又涉足航空航太領域。而航空航太業則有著不同的激勵機制，因為航空航太業的大部分產品都是在波多黎各為美國軍方生產的。根據法律規定，它必須在美國製造。這就是我們的一個優勢。

And more recently, too, we have seen some technology focused organizations coming to Puerto Rico, given that some of the R&D credits apply to software development, and that is attractive to some of those folks, particularly in AI and kind of those unique areas.

最近，我們也看到一些專注於技術的組織來到波多黎各，因為一些研發信貸適用於軟體開發，這對其中一些人來說很有吸引力，特別是在人工智慧和那些獨特領域。

Great, thanks. And then maybe just a little more detail on the expectations around construction growth. Is that something we should be thinking continues to sort of grow at an accelerated pace here?

太好了，謝謝。然後也許可以更詳細地介紹一下有關建築業成長的預期。我們是否應該認為它會繼續以加速的速度成長？

So I think there's a couple of things there. One, we are seeing our clients and most of the construction portfolio is focused in New York, and it's a start to multifamily development projects. We are seeing behavior where -- because the pipelines are slower or less so, developers are able to dedicate more people to accelerate the construction efforts. They're doing this to try to reduce the impact of the higher rates, borrowing rates, mitigate their increasing cost of development, et cetera. .

所以我認為這裡有幾件事。首先，我們正在會見客戶，大部分建築組合都集中在紐約，這是多戶型開發案的開始。我們看到的情況是——由於管道速度較慢或較少，開發人員能夠投入更多人力來加快建設進度。他們這樣做是為了試圖減少更高利率、借貸利率的影響，減輕不斷增加的開發成本等等。。

So we are, at some point, expecting to see, but we'll see some payoffs and there won't be the pipeline to kind of continue the level of growth that we have seen when that happens, yet to be determined, right? There's obviously a lot of different projects that are ongoing at the same time. Meanwhile, our teams are going out and continue to develop business. So hopefully, we get enough runway that it becomes a little transparent. But there is that nature.

因此，在某個時候，我們期望看到，但我們會看到一些回報，並且不會有管道來繼續我們所看到的成長水平，當這種情況發生時，還有待確定，對嗎？顯然有很多不同的項目正在同時進行。與此同時，我們的團隊正在走出去，繼續拓展業務。因此希望我們能夠獲得足夠的跑道，使其變得透明一些。但有這種性質。

Remember, while we may compete in some of the takeout loans, they're not -- we're not -- our construction loans are not contingent on the take-out loans. Sometimes, we don't want to take out loans. So it's not certain that you would end up moving from construction to CRE, for example or multi-family.

請記住，雖然我們可能在一些外賣貸款方面有競爭力，但它們不是——我們不是——我們的建築貸款並不依賴外賣貸款。有時候，我們不想貸款。因此，不確定你最終是否會從建築業轉向商業房地產（CRE）或多戶住宅。

I'll also add that in Puerto Rico, we expect at some point in time to see the benefit from some of the -- funds that are being allotted to construction of low housing in Puerto Rico -- low income housing in Puerto Rico. The timing is a little bit difficult to say, but we think that that is going to happen this year or next year. .

我還要補充一點，在波多黎各，我們期望在某個時候看到分配給波多黎各低收入住房建設的部分資金帶來的好處。時間有點難說，但我們認為這將在今年或明年發生。。

And 1 other area where we're seeing demand in the US is in our community and condo association lending, particularly in South Florida, but there are some legislative requirements for condo boards to address maintenance on any building that's higher than three floors and 30 years old. And there's a lot of activity in that area. That shows up more in our C&I portfolio rather than the construction given the nature of the collateral and the way those loans are made.

我們在美國看到需求的另一個領域是社區和公寓協會貸款，特別是在南佛羅裡達州，但有一些立法要求公寓委員會解決任何高於三層和 30 年的建築的維護問題。該地區有很多活動。考慮到抵押品的性質和貸款的發放方式，這更多地體現在我們的商業和工業投資組合中，而不是建築中。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Benjamin Gerlinger, Citi.

花旗銀行的本傑明‧格林格 (Benjamin Gerlinger)。

Hi. Good morning.

你好。早安.

Hi, Ben, good morning.

嗨，本，早安。

Everything we kind of talked to here of loan growth in the longer term seems to be pretty positive. But in your commentary, you're kind of towards the lower end of the guidance range. I'm just kind of curious, is it more so just being prudent, maybe conservative? Or is it just like elevated payoffs or people not utilizing lines at they paid to. I think -- I'm just kind of trying to marry the two and like positive lower loan growth?

我們在這裡談論的有關長期貸款增長的一切似乎都相當積極。但在您的評論中，您有點接近指導範圍的下限。我只是有點好奇，這是否只是謹慎，也許是保守？或者它就像增加了回報或人們沒有使用他們支付的線路。我認為——我只是想將兩者結合起來，並實現積極的較低的貸款成長？

Yeah. I mean, I mean I think, first, there's payoffs in our kind of runway that we see. So obviously, that's money that needs to be replaced. We've said it in the past, for example, our auto portfolio, our run rate is somewhere in the $400 million in originations, stay running in place. So it's -- we talk a lot about growth, but the machinery that has to support that growth is extensive as well.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，首先，我們看到了我們的跑道帶來的回報。顯然，這些錢是需要補充的。例如，我們過去曾說過，我們的汽車投資組合的運行率在 4 億美元左右，保持原狀。所以，我們談了很多關於成長的話題，但支持這種成長的機制也很廣泛。

I think when we talk about our low end of the range, it is driven by not only visibility to our pipeline conversation with our clients. Most of our clients are confident with the projects that are ongoing, but the uncertainty certainly gives pause for people.

我認為，當我們談論我們的低端產品範圍時，它不僅僅是由我們與客戶的通路對話的可見性所驅動。我們的大多數客戶對正在進行的專案充滿信心，但不確定性肯定會讓人們猶豫不決。

I mean the -- continuously, we hear people saying, it's a fluid environment, very dynamic changes every day. That uncertainty gives people pause, particularly with projects that are longer term, people just want to understand what it is that they're building into committing into buying into, et cetera.

我的意思是──我們不斷聽到人們說，這是一個流動的環境，每天都在發生巨大的變化。這種不確定性讓人們猶豫不決，特別是對於長期項目，人們只是想了解他們正在建造、承諾購買的是什麼，等等。

Okay. That is helpful. And then I think in the kind of previous discussions, you talked through federal refund taxes and returns and just the overall deposit flow that you normally see is getting a little bit better -- or better than it had been over the past couple of years. When you kind of look at the credit trends, you guys seem to have been a little bit more proactive on kind of the retail portion across those lines of business. Are you seeing those refund charge go directly to paying off delinquent loans?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我認為在之前的討論中，您談到了聯邦退稅和退稅，而且您通常看到的整體存款流量正在變得更好一些 - 或者比過去幾年更好。當你觀察信貸趨勢時，你會發現你們似乎對這些業務線的零售部分採取了更積極主動的態度。您是否看到這些退款費用直接用於償還拖欠的貸款？

Or is it kind of two different ships passing in that -- both are positive, I'm just trying to see if one hand is going right to the other.

或者是兩艘不同的船相遇了——兩艘船都是正的，我只是想看看一隻手是否正好指向另一隻手。

Yeah. I will say that that will be a natural tendency for it to occur, we will become more liquid. They use some of that liquidity to deleverage themselves. But I think what we have seen this quarter is a function of -- some of the actions that we took back in 2023 related to tightening some of our riskier borrowers and management effort that we have put forth in collections has really paid off this quarter.

是的。我想說，這將是自然趨勢，我們的流動性將增強。他們利用部分流動性來降低自身槓桿率。但我認為，我們本季看到的情況是——我們在 2023 年採取的一些行動，包括收緊一些風險較高的借款人，以及我們在收款方面付出的管理努力，在本季度確實獲得了回報。

And when we look at the delta of balances in the first quarter this year versus last year versus the increase in taxes, those things to be consistent. So whatever behavior we're seeing, it is not out of sync with what we have seen traditionally. So people are using -- to pay and become current, we're still seeing the deposit balances grow. So that -- you're getting two positives there, I guess, it's a better way of saying it.

當我們觀察今年第一季與去年第一季的餘額差異以及稅收成長時，我們發現這些情況是一致的。因此，無論我們看到什麼行為，它都與我們傳統上看到的行為並不同步。因此人們正在使用——來支付和變得通暢，我們仍然看到存款餘額正在增長。所以 — — 你得到了兩個正面因素，我想，這是更好的說法。

Got you. That's helpful. I appreciate the timing. Also slide 17, it looks great. Thank you, Paul.

明白了。這很有幫助。我很感激這個時機。還有第 17 張幻燈片，看起來很棒。謝謝你，保羅。

Kelly Motta, KBW.

凱利·莫塔（Kelly Motta），KBW。

Hi, good morning. I just wanted to echo everybody's congratulations to you, Ignacio, on your retirement. It's been such a pleasure working with you and Javier, congrats on the new gig coming up. So let's see. I would like to talk a bit -- I know it seems like the credit is holding in a lot better than, perhaps, you may have expected a quarter or two ago. And one thing we've been talking about in the past several quarters has been this normalization of the consumer.

嗨，早安。我只是想和大家一起祝賀伊格納西奧退休。與您和哈維爾合作非常愉快，並祝賀你們即將開始新的工作。讓我們看看。我想談談——我知道看起來信貸狀況比你一兩個季度前預期的要好得多。過去幾季我們一直在談論的一件事就是消費者的正常化。

Can you just -- it sounds like there's the potential of net charge-offs maybe dropping below the end of the range depending on how this goes. I'm just wondering where we stand on that normalization of the consumer and life cycle there. Is there still the potential of some of those losses ticking higher? Or has that addressing the FICO scores on that kind of contained that back more towards the normal end of the range?

您能否—聽起來，根據情況的進展，淨沖銷額可能會降至範圍的末端以下。我只是想知道我們在消費者和生命週期正常化方面處於什麼位置。這些損失是否仍有可能進一步增加？或者說，解決 FICO 分數問題是否能將其控制在更正常的範圍之內？

Just trying to kind of frame where we are in what we've been talking about in the past several quarters.

只是想大致概括一下我們過去幾季所討論的內容。

I think as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're very pleased and very happy with the performance of our loan book this quarter. We also mentioned that given the performance in the first quarter, and the outlook, the short-term outlook for our book, we could be in a position to lower the range. However, given the operating environment, the fluidity uncertainty that we're not changing our estimates. So we echo your positivism in terms of what we see in terms of results for the quarter and outlook for the rest of the year. However, given the uncertainty, we're holding off from changing the estimate at this time.

我想，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們對本季貸款帳簿的表現感到非常高興和滿意。我們也提到，鑑於第一季的表現以及前景，我們的帳面短期前景，我們可能會降低範圍。然而，考慮到經營環境、流動性的不確定性，我們不會改變我們的估計。因此，就本季業績和今年剩餘時間的前景而言，我們贊同您的積極態度。然而，考慮到不確定性，我們目前暫時不會改變估計。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Then maybe stepping back, I think I caught that you reiterated your intermediate term outlook for eventually getting to that 14% ROTCE. In order to get there, can you help frame -- would that take a more substantial return on capital beyond these opportunistic share repurchases you have here?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後也許退一步來說，我想我發現你重申了最終達到 14% ROTCE 的中期前景。為了實現這一目標，您能否幫助制定框架——除了您在這裡進行的這些機會性股票回購之外，這是否需要更大的資本回報？

I'm just trying to square the 11.5%, call it, ROTCE, you're at here versus the improvement you would need to see. Is that fair to say that you would need something a bit beyond just the normal share repurchases and kind of at a high level, what would it take to get there?

我只是想將你現在所處的 11.5%（我們稱之為 ROTCE）與你需要看到的改進進行比較。這樣說是否公平呢？你需要一些超出正常股票回購範圍的措施，從高層次來看，你需要做些什麼才能實現這一目標？

Yeah. I mean I think that part of the reason of extending and not making that a target, right, and not giving the timeline to that target, it is -- that it requires us to execute across the entire, let's call it, P&L and balance sheet, right? It will require us to maintain our focus on deposit growth, our mix of deposits, our expanded NIM expense control, strategic decisions including our capital stack. So it's really all of the above, Kelly, and it just goes to the nature of the effort and focus that our management team has to have is active participants in making sure that we make decisions towards that goal.

是的。我的意思是，我認為延長期限而不將其作為目標，並且不給出該目標的時間表的部分原因是 - 它要求我們執行整個，我們稱之為損益表和資產負債表，對嗎？這將要求我們繼續關注存款成長、存款組合、擴大的淨利差費用控制以及包括資本結構在內的策略決策。所以凱利，以上所有因素都是如此，這只是我們管理團隊必須付出的努力和關注的本質，即積極參與，確保我們朝著這個目標做出決策。

Great, I'll step back. Thank you very much.

太好了，我退後一步。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

(inaudible) [Post] Group

（聽不清楚）[貼文] 小組

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Good Morning.

早安.

Just a question, talking about your fee income. Do you expect your total fee income to rebound from here after the slight decrease this quarter and have the mortgage banking income uptick again.

只是一個問題，談論您的費用收入。您是否預計您的總費用收入在本季度略有下降之後會從這裡反彈，並且抵押銀行收入會再次上升？

Yeah, We do -- as we said in the guidance, expect to finish the year between [$155 million to $160 million] per quarter when we look at year-end. So that would signify as you say, a pickup. There is some seasonality in some of those fee lines, for example, transactional accounts, credit cards, we would expect higher activity as the year goes by the our equity method investments, we would expect there to add to that increase going forward. And then there's also other cyclical fees from our insurance company that get paid some in the second quarter and others in the fourth quarter.

是的，正如我們在指引中所說，預計到年底每季的營業額將在 [1.55 億美元至 1.6 億美元] 之間。所以這就意味著，正如你所說，一個接送。某些費用項目具有一定的季節性，例如交易帳戶、信用卡，我們預期隨著時間的推移，權益法投資的活動會增加，我們預計未來還會繼續增加。此外，我們的保險公司也會收取其他週期性費用，一部分在第二季支付，一部分在第四季支付。

So when you put that all together, there are levers in our business mix that should help take that up to the levels that we're guiding to.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們的業務組合中就有一些槓桿，可以幫助將其提升到我們指導的水平。

Perfect. Well, thank you so much.

完美的。嗯，非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

This concludes our Q&A. I'll now hand back to Ignacio Alvarez, CEO, for any final remarks.

我們的問答到此結束。現在我將把發言權交還給執行長 Ignacio Alvarez，請他做最後的評論。

Once again, thank you. It's been a pleasure working with you, and we appreciate the interest that you have in our company. And while we may not always agree, we always listen. So thank you, and I look forward to listening to the next webcast. Take care.

再次感謝您。與您合作非常愉快，我們感謝您對我們公司的關注。儘管我們並不總是意見一致，但我們總是傾聽。所以謝謝你，我期待收聽下一次網路廣播。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。