(BPOP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to today's conference call titled Popular Inc. Q2 2023 Earnings call. My name is Ellen, and I'll be coordinating the call for today. (Operator Instructions). I will now hand over to Paul Cardillo, Investor Relations Officer to begin. Paul, please go ahead. If you are not already.

大家早上好，歡迎參加今天題為“Popular Inc. 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議”的電話會議。我叫艾倫，我將協調今天的通話。 （操作員說明）。我現在將由投資者關係官保羅·卡迪羅 (Paul Cardillo) 開始。保羅，請繼續。如果你還沒有。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With us on the call today is our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez; our CFO, Carlos Vazquez; and our CRO, Lidio Soriano. They will review our results for the second quarter and then answer your questions. Other members of our management team will also be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that on today's call, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth within today's earnings press release and are detailed in our SEC filings. You may find today's press release and our SEC filings on our web page at popular.com. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我們一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席執行官伊格納西奧·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Ignacio Alvarez)；我們的首席財務官卡洛斯·巴斯克斯；還有我們的 CRO Lidio Soriano。他們將審查我們第二季度的業績，然後回答您的問題。我們管理團隊的其他成員也將出席問答環節。在開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議上，我們可能會根據管理層當前的預期做出前瞻性陳述，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素已在今天的收益新聞稿中闡述，並在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細說明。您可以在我們的網頁 popular.com 上找到今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件。我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官伊格納西奧·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Ignacio Alvarez)。

Good morning, and thank you for joining the call. The second quarter was another strong one in which we achieved net income of $151 million, $8 million lower than the first quarter results of $159 million. Net interest income and noninterest income remained strong. The decrease in net income was driven by higher operating expenses, offset in part by a lower provision for credit losses. We grew loan balances by $693 million during the quarter. Banco Popular generated loan growth across all segments, while Popular Bank achieved growth in commercial and construction loans, offset in part by runoff in the mortgage and consumer portfolios. Year-to-date, loan balances have grown by more than approximately $953 million. Our net interest margin increased by 8 basis points to 3.14% in the quarter, primarily driven -- primarily as a result of a 29 basis point increase in deposit costs. This was partially offset by higher loan balances and the repricing of adjustable rate loans in a higher interest rate environment as well as higher balance of money market investments driven by our strong deposit growth. Noninterest income continued to improve. Excluding the $7 million insurance claim reimbursement recorded in the first quarter, fee income was $5 million higher. Revenues related to customer transaction activity were particularly strong, and we also began to see some early results from our various transformation initiatives.

早上好，感謝您加入通話。第二季度又是一個強勁的季度，我們實現了 1.51 億美元的淨利潤，比第一季度的 1.59 億美元減少了 800 萬美元。淨利息收入和非利息收入依然強勁。淨利潤下降是由於營業費用增加造成的，但信貸損失撥備減少部分抵消了淨利潤的下降。本季度我們的貸款餘額增加了 6.93 億美元。大眾銀行在所有領域都實現了貸款增長，而大眾銀行則實現了商業和建築貸款的增長，但部分被抵押貸款和消費者投資組合的流失所抵消。年初至今，貸款餘額已增長超過約 9.53 億美元。本季度我們的淨息差增加了 8 個基點，達到 3.14%，這主要是由於存款成本增加了 29 個基點。這被較高的貸款餘額和在較高利率環境下調整利率貸款的重新定價以及我們強勁的存款增長推動的貨幣市場投資餘額增加所部分抵消。非利息收入繼續改善。不包括第一季度記錄的 700 萬美元保險索賠報銷，費用收入增加了 500 萬美元。與客戶交易活動相關的收入特別強勁，我們也開始看到各種轉型舉措的一些早期成果。

Operating expenses increased by $20 million as we continue to strategically invest in our people in areas such as regulatory compliance and technology and projects related to our transformation. Credit quality trends remain positive. NPLs once again decreased in the period and net charge-offs remain well below pre-pandemic levels. We maintained robust liquidity anchored by our deposit franchise and our high levels of cash reserves and unpledged securities. Overall, deposits were up $3.1 billion in the quarter, and liquidity sources increased by $1.9 billion. We have a well-diversified deposit franchise in Puerto Rico with an average balance of less than $10,000 per retail account. Our total consolidated borrowings remained flat during the quarter. Regulatory capital levels remain strong. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio in the second quarter was 16.9%.

由於我們繼續在監管合規性以及與轉型相關的技術和項目等領域對員工進行戰略性投資，運營費用增加了 2000 萬美元。信貸質量趨勢依然樂觀。不良貸款在此期間再次下降，淨核銷仍遠低於大流行前的水平。我們以存款專營權以及高水平的現金儲備和未質押證券為基礎，保持了強勁的流動性。總體而言，本季度存款增加 31 億美元，流動性來源增加 19 億美元。我們在波多黎各擁有多元化的存款專營權，每個零售賬戶的平均餘額不到 10,000 美元。本季度我們的綜合借款總額保持不變。監管資本水平依然強勁。第二季度我們的普通股一級資本比率為 16.9%。

Additionally, tangible book value per share ended the quarter at $51.37, an increase of $1.22 per share. Earlier this month, we announced that on August 14, we will redeem at par all outstanding 300 million aggregate principal amount of our senior notes that mature in September of 2023. Please turn to Slide 4. Our customer base in Puerto Rico grew by approximately 9,500 during the quarter, reaching nearly 2 million unique customers. Adoption of digital channels among our retail customers remain strong. Active users on our Mi Banco platform exceeded 1.1 million or 56% of our customer base. In addition, we continue to capture more than 60% of our deposits through digital channels. This trend remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating our customers' adoption of this technology. In the second quarter, consumer spending remained healthy with combined credit and debit card sales up 3% compared to the second quarter of 2022.

此外，本季度末每股有形賬面價值為 51.37 美元，每股增加 1.22 美元。本月早些時候，我們宣布將於8 月14 日按面值贖回2023 年9 月到期的優先票據的全部未償還本金總額3 億美元。請參閱幻燈片4。我們在波多黎各的客戶群增加了約9,500 名本季度，其獨立客戶數量接近 200 萬。我們的零售客戶對數字渠道的採用仍然強勁。小米銀行平台的活躍用戶超過 110 萬，佔客戶群的 56%。此外，我們繼續通過數字渠道獲取超過 60% 的存款。這一趨勢仍然顯著高於大流行前的水平，這表明我們的客戶對這項技術的採用。第二季度，消費者支出保持健康，信用卡和借記卡銷售額與 2022 年第二季度相比增長了 3%。

Our auto and lease originations increased by 29% compared to the first quarter, as demand for cars has continued to be strong in Puerto Rico. Mortgage production in Puerto Rico appears to have stabilized in the second quarter. The dollar volume of mortgage originations and Banco Popular increased by 20%, compared to the second quarter of last year, driven primarily by home purchase activity. The Puerto Rico economy performed well during the second quarter. Business activity is solid and remains in good shape as reflected in the continued positive trends in total employment and other economic data. The tourism and hospitality sector continues to be a source of strength for the local economy. Year-to-date, San Juan Airport has seen record levels of passenger traffic.

由於波多黎各對汽車的需求持續強勁，我們的汽車和租賃業務較第一季度增長了 29%。波多黎各的抵押貸款生產似乎在第二季度趨於穩定。與去年第二季度相比，抵押貸款發放和大眾銀行的美元交易量增長了 20%，這主要是由購房活動推動的。波多黎各經濟第二季度表現良好。總就業和其他經濟數據的持續積極趨勢反映了商業活動穩健並保持良好狀態。旅遊和酒店業仍然是當地經濟的力量源泉。今年迄今為止，聖胡安機場的客運量創下了歷史新高。

Hotel demand has also been very strong. Year-to-date, occupancy, average daily rates and RevPAR are all at the highest level seen in nearly a decade. There are still approximately $45 billion of hurricane disaster recovery funds yet to be dispersed. We expect that these funds will support economic activity in many sectors in the coming years. In fact, we are beginning to see these funds being disbursed into local construction projects. Access infrastructure investment in the economy expands, we are well positioned to serve the needs of our customers and benefit from such activity.

酒店需求也非常強勁。今年迄今為止，入住率、平均每日房價和每間可用房收入均處於近十年來的最高水平。仍有約 450 億美元的颶風災難恢復資金尚未分配。我們預計這些資金將在未來幾年支持許多行業的經濟活動。事實上，我們開始看到這些資金被分配到當地的建設項目中。隨著經濟中基礎設施投資的擴大，我們有能力滿足客戶的需求並從此類活動中受益。

In short, we are pleased with our results for the quarter, particularly our strong loan growth in both Puerto Rico and in the U.S. as well as the continued strength of our deposit base, liquidity and credit quality. We are encouraged by the resiliency of the U.S. economy and strong economic activity in Puerto Rico. We remain optimistic about the future of Puerto Rico, our primary market, and our ability to manage and serve the needs of our growing customer base. I'll now turn the call over to Carlos for more details on our financial results.

簡而言之，我們對本季度的業績感到滿意，特別是波多黎各和美國的貸款強勁增長，以及存款基礎、流動性和信貸質量的持續強勁。我們對美國經濟的彈性和波多黎各強勁的經濟活動感到鼓舞。我們對我們的主要市場波多黎各的未來以及我們管理和滿足不斷增長的客戶群需求的能力保持樂觀。我現在將把電話轉給卡洛斯，了解有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Ignacio. Please turn to Slide 5. We reported net income of $151 million compared to $159 million in Q1. Net interest income was $532 million, in-line with Q1. On a taxable equivalent basis, net interest income was $558 million, down $12 million from Q1 due to a higher disallowed interest expense in the calculation of taxes in Puerto Rico. Noninterest income was $160 million, a $2 million decrease from Q1, which included a $7 million insurance claim reimbursement. Excluding the Q1 reimbursement, during the quarter, noninterest income increased by $5 million, driven by customer activity. Service charges and deposit accounts increased by $3 million, mainly due to higher cash management fees on commercial customer accounts.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧。請參閱幻燈片 5。我們報告的淨利潤為 1.51 億美元，而第一季度為 1.59 億美元。淨利息收入為 5.32 億美元，與第一季度持平。在應稅等值基礎上，淨利息收入為 5.58 億美元，比第一季度減少 1,200 萬美元，原因是波多黎各稅收計算中不允許的利息費用較高。非利息收入為 1.6 億美元，比第一季度減少 200 萬美元，其中包括 700 萬美元的保險索賠報銷。不包括第一季度的報銷，在客戶活動的推動下，本季度非利息收入增加了 500 萬美元。服務費和存款賬戶增加了 300 萬美元，主要是由於商業客戶賬戶現金管理費上漲。

Additionally, other service fees increased by $4 million, primarily driven by higher credit and debit card fees due to higher volume of customer transactions. Going forward, we expect non-interest income to be approximately $155 million to $160 million per quarter. The increase from our prior $150 million quarterly guidance is partly due to two transformation-related initiatives that have yielded early results. First, we have enhanced the pricing segmentation in our commercial cash management business in Puerto Rico. And second, last year, we introduced a commercial credit card product for Puerto Rico SME businesses. Both initiatives have contributed additional fee income.

此外，其他服務費用增加了 400 萬美元，主要是由於客戶交易量增加導致信用卡和借記卡費用增加。展望未來，我們預計每季度非利息收入約為 1.55 億至 1.6 億美元。較之前 1.5 億美元的季度指導有所增加的部分原因是兩項與轉型相關的舉措已取得了早期成果。首先，我們加強了波多黎各商業現金管理業務的定價細分。其次，去年我們為波多黎各中小企業推出了商業信用卡產品。這兩項舉措都貢獻了額外的費用收入。

The provision of our credit losses was $37 million compared to $48 million in the first quarter. Total operating expenses were $640 million in Q2, an increase of $20 million from the prior quarter. This increase was primarily driven by higher professional fees by $17 million related to regulatory compliance and cybersecurity initiatives as well as technology and software expenses that increased by $4 million. During Q2, we incurred $7 million of transformation-related expenses compared to $6 million last quarter. We continue to anticipate transformation-related expenses of approximately $50 million in 2023 as these efforts are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.

我們的信貸損失準備金為 3700 萬美元，而第一季度為 4800 萬美元。第二季度總運營費用為 6.4 億美元，比上一季度增加 2000 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於與監管合規和網絡安全計劃相關的專業費用增加了 1700 萬美元，以及技術和軟件費用增加了 400 萬美元。第二季度，我們發生了 700 萬美元的轉型相關費用，而上季度為 600 萬美元。我們繼續預計 2023 年轉型相關費用約為 5000 萬美元，因為這些努力預計將在今年下半年加速。

Other large expense variances were higher business promotion expense by $6 million, mostly related to credit card customer loyalty programs. higher processing and transactional services expenses by $4 million due to retail credit and debit card replacement cost. And finally, lower personnel costs by $7 million, primarily related to lower equity-based compensation expenses. Personnel costs historically exhibited a seasonal decrease in the second quarter, then typically increase for the remaining of the year, in part due to the impact of annual metric increases, which are effective on July 1. Our quarterly expense trajectory has historically ramped up as the year progresses. We anticipate that 2023 will be consistent with our experience and continue to expect expenses for the year of approximately $1.87 billion. We will strive to come in below this expected level of expenses. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 22%. For the full year 2023, we now expect an effective tax rate to be between 22% and 25%. This range is somewhat tighter than the 21% to 26% range provided during our last webcast.

其他較大的費用差異包括業務推廣費用增加了 600 萬美元，主要與信用卡客戶忠誠度計劃有關。由於零售信用卡和借記卡更換成本，處理和交易服務費用增加了 400 萬美元。最後，人員成本降低了 700 萬美元，這主要與股權薪酬費用的降低有關。從歷史上看，人員成本在第二季度呈現季節性下降，然後通常在一年中的剩餘時間裡增加，部分原因是年度指標增長的影響，該增長於7 月1 日生效。我們的季度支出軌跡歷來隨著年進步。我們預計 2023 年將與我們的經驗一致，並繼續預計全年支出約為 18.7 億美元。我們將努力將支出控制在這一預期水平以下。我們本季度的有效稅率為 22%。對於 2023 年全年，我們目前預計有效稅率將在 22% 至 25% 之間。這個範圍比我們上次網絡廣播期間提供的 21% 到 26% 範圍要窄一些。

Please turn to Slide 6. Net interest income was $532 million. On a taxable equivalent basis, it was $558 million, $12 million lower than in the first quarter. Net interest margin decreased by 8 basis points to 3.14% in Q2. On a tactical equivalent basis, NIM was 3.29%, a decrease of 17 basis points versus Q1. The decrease is driven by higher interest expense on deposits, due to the increase in balance cost of public sector deposits as well as growth in high-cost deposit accounts at Popular Bank. This was partially offset by higher loan yields and balances across all major lending categories. At the end of the second quarter, public sector deposits were roughly $18.5 billion, an increase of $3 billion compared to Q1. The increase in Q2 was consistent with historical trends. And as such, by the end of 2023, we still expect deposits -- public deposits to be in the range of $14 billion to $16 billion. It is important to reiterate that by law in Puerto Rico, public deposits must be 100% collateralized, while changes in the level of these deposits may impact profitability, they do not have a significant impact on our liquidity.

請參閱幻燈片 6。淨利息收入為 5.32 億美元。按應稅當量計算，為 5.58 億美元，比第一季度減少 1200 萬美元。第二季度淨息差下降8個基點至3.14%。按戰術當量計算，淨息差為 3.29%，較第一季度下降 17 個基點。造成這一下降的原因是公共部門存款餘額成本增加以及大眾銀行高成本存款賬戶的增長，導致存款利息支出增加。這被所有主要貸款類別的貸款收益率和余額增加所部分抵消。第二季度末，公共部門存款約為185億美元，比第一季度增加30億美元。第二季度的增長與歷史趨勢一致。因此，到 2023 年底，我們仍然預計存款——公共存款將在 140 億美元至 160 億美元之間。需要重申的是，根據波多黎各的法律，公共存款必須 100% 抵押，雖然這些存款水平的變化可能會影響盈利能力，但不會對我們的流動性產生重大影響。

Excluding Puerto Rico public deposits, customer deposit balances were essentially unchanged in the quarter. We did, however, see some mix shift as noninterest-bearing deposits decreased by $624 million in the quarter. This was offset by increases in time and saving deposits of Popular bank gathered through a direct online channel. In Q2, we continue to see commercial and high net worth clients pursuing better yields on excess liquidity by moving these funds outside the banking sector. However, we have been able to capture a good portion of these in our broker-dealer, we saw inflows from deposit customers of approximately $350 million in Q2. Our ending loan balances increased by $693 million compared to Q1, driven by growth in all loan segments at BPPR and Bank commercial and construction loans at PB. This growth is net of a transfer to held for sale of a $46 million private label credit card portfolio. That portfolio was sold at our par value in early Q3. We are encouraged by the demand for credit at BPPR and PB. We will continue to take advantage of prudent opportunities to extend credit and improve the use and yield of our existing liquidity. Our interest rate sensitivity continues to be relatively neutral. As this year progresses, we expect the margin to resume an upward trajectory. The timing will depend on our loan and deposit growth and mix, investment portfolio strategy and the pace of repricing of public and incrementally retail and commercial deposits. Deposit betas in the current timing cycle are now above the prior cycle. We have seen a total cumulative deposit beta of 31% to date in this cycle. In BPPR, total deposit costs increased by 34 basis points compared to an increase of 35 basis points in Q1, led by public sector deposits. Excluding the public sector balances, deposit costs in BPPR increased by 14 basis points. In PB, deposit costs increased by 55 basis points versus 67 basis points in Q1, led by retail deposits gathered primarily through our online channel.

不包括波多黎各公共存款，本季度客戶存款餘額基本保持不變。然而，我們確實看到了一些混合變化，因為本季度無息存款減少了 6.24 億美元。這被大眾銀行通過直接在線渠道收集的時間和儲蓄存款的增加所抵消。在第二季度，我們繼續看到商業和高淨值客戶通過將這些資金轉移到銀行業之外來追求過剩流動性的更高收益。然而，我們已經能夠在我們的經紀自營商中獲得其中的很大一部分，我們在第二季度看到來自存款客戶的資金流入約為 3.5 億美元。與第一季度相比，我們的期末貸款餘額增加了 6.93 億美元，這得益於 BPPR 所有貸款部門以及 PB 銀行商業和建築貸款的增長。這一增長扣除了價值 4,600 萬美元的自有品牌信用卡組合轉為持有待售的費用。該投資組合在第三季度初以我們的票面價值出售。 BPPR 和 PB 的信貸需求令我們感到鼓舞。我們將繼續利用審慎的機會擴大信貸，提高現有流動性的利用率和收益率。我們的利率敏感性仍然相對中性。隨著今年的進展，我們預計利潤率將恢復上升軌道。時機將取決於我們的貸款和存款增長和組合、投資組合策略以及公共和增量零售和商業存款重新定價的步伐。當前時間週期的存款貝塔值現在高於前一個週期。迄今為止，本週期中累計存款貝塔係數總計為 31%。在 BPPR 中，總存款成本增加了 34 個基點，而第一季度增加了 35 個基點，其中公共部門存款帶動了這一增長。不包括公共部門餘額，BPPR 的存款成本增加了 14 個基點。在PB中，存款成本增加了55個基點，而第一季度為67個基點，主要是通過我們的在線渠道收集的零售存款帶動的。

In Puerto Rico, our combined retail and commercial deposit betas, cycle-to-date continue to be less than 10%. Given the increase in short-term interest rates, we expect a continued increase in the cost of public sector deposits. The deposit pricing agreement with the Puerto Rico public sector is market linked with the like. This source of funding results in an attractive spread on their market rates. In the second quarter, the cost of public sector deposits increased by 39 basis points compared to our April estimate of 60 basis points. The different (inaudible) in balance fluctuations and the mechanics of the interest expense calculation. We expect the cost of public deposits to increase by approximately 50 basis points in Q3.

在波多黎各，我們的零售和商業存款貝塔係數合計週期迄今仍低於 10%。鑑於短期利率上升，我們預計公共部門存款成本將持續上升。與波多黎各公共部門的存款定價協議與類似的市場掛鉤。這種資金來源導致其市場利率具有有吸引力的價差。第二季度，公共部門存款成本比我們 4 月份預測的 60 個基點增加了 39 個基點。餘額波動和利息費用計算機制的不同（聽不清）。我們預計第三季度公眾存款成本將上升約50個基點。

Please turn to Slide 8. Our investment portfolio is almost entirely comprised of treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, which carry minimal credit risk. Including our cash position, this portfolio has an average duration of approximately 2.3 years. As of the end of the second quarter, the balance of the unrealized loss in our HTM portfolio stood at $746 million, a reduction of $43 million from Q1. We expect this loss will be amortized back into capital throughout the remaining life of that portfolio at a rate of approximately 5% per quarter through 2026.

請參閱幻燈片 8。我們的投資組合幾乎完全由國庫券和機構抵押貸款支持證券組成，這些證券的信用風險很小。包括我們的現金頭寸，該投資組合的平均久期約為 2.3 年。截至第二季度末，我們的 HTM 投資組合未實現虧損餘額為 7.46 億美元，較一季度減少 4300 萬美元。我們預計，到 2026 年，這一損失將在該投資組合的剩餘生命週期內以每季度約 5% 的速度攤銷回資本。

Please turn to Slide 9. Our return on tangible equity was 10.6% in the quarter. Regulatory capital levels remain strong. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio in Q2 of 16.9% increased by 14 basis points from Q1. Tangible book value per share at quarter end was $51.37, an increase of $1.22 per share. Given the continued uncertainty on the outlook for rates, the economy and the potential regulatory response to events in the banking sector, we do not expect to engage in a share repurchase during the remainder of 2023. We do plan, however, to consider a dividend increase later this year. We'll review future capital actions as market conditions evolve. Our long-term outlook on capital return has not changed anchors our strong regulatory capital ratios. Over time, we expect our regulatory capital ratio to gravitate towards the level of our maintenance peers plus Sprint. With that, I turn the call over to Lidio.

請參閱幻燈片 9。本季度我們的有形資產回報率為 10.6%。監管資本水平依然強勁。第二季度我們的普通股一級資本比率為 16.9%，較第一季度上升 14 個基點。季度末每股有形賬面價值為 51.37 美元，每股增加 1.22 美元。鑑於利率、經濟前景以及對銀行業事件的潛在監管反應的持續不確定性，我們預計在 2023 年剩餘時間內不會進行股票回購。不過，我們確實計劃考慮派發股息今年晚些時候會增加。隨著市場狀況的變化，我們將審查未來的資本行動。我們對資本回報的長期前景沒有改變，這是我們強大的監管資本比率的基礎。隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們的監管資本比率將趨向於我們的維護同行加上 Sprint 的水平。說完，我把電話轉給了利迪奧。

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning. Overall, Popular continue to exhibit strong credit quality trends with low levels of net charge-offs and decreasing nonperforming loans. We believe that the improvements over the last few years in the risk profile of the corporation's loan portfolio positions Popular to operate successfully in the current environment. However, we continue to closely monitor changes in our performance and the macroeconomic environment, even inflationary pressures and geopolitical risk. Before discussing the credit metrics for the quarter, I would like to address the risk profile of 3 loan segments: office CRE, credit cards and auto and lease financing portfolio.

謝謝你，卡洛斯，早上好。總體而言，大眾銀行繼續展現出強勁的信貸質量趨勢，淨沖銷水平較低，不良貸款也不斷減少。我們認為，過去幾年公司貸款組合的風險狀況有所改善，在當前環境下成功運營很受歡迎。不過，我們繼續密切關注業績和宏觀經濟環境的變化，甚至通脹壓力和地緣政治風險。在討論本季度的信貸指標之前，我想先討論一下 3 個貸款領域的風險狀況：寫字樓 CRE、信用卡以及汽車和租賃融資組合。

We have also included additional information for this segments in the appendix to today's presentations. The office segment is receiving a lot of attention in the current environment due to the achieved to remote work and higher interest rates. Popular consolidated office CRE exposure is limited representing only 1.8% or $600 million of our total loan portfolio and is mainly comprised of low to mid-rise properties located in suburban areas and is well diversified across payment type with an average loan size of $2 million.

我們還在今天演示文稿的附錄中提供了有關此部分的更多信息。由於遠程工作的實現和更高的利率，辦公領域在當前環境下受到廣泛關注。受歡迎的綜合寫字樓CRE 風險敞口有限，僅占我們總貸款組合的1.8% 或6 億美元，主要由位於郊區的中低層房產組成，並且在支付類型上多元化，平均貸款規模為200 萬美元。

We have no exposure to large office tenant CRE in the mainland urban city centers. The portfolio has a favorable credit risk profile with low levels of NPLs and classified loans. In terms of our credit card and auto and lease portfolios, the credit risk profile of these portfolios is anchored on the strength of the job market economic activity in Puerto Rico, coupled with the credit quality of our originations over the last few years. In terms of credit cards, 30-plus delinquency is at 2.8% compared to an average of 3.7% in the 2011 - 2019 pre-pandemic period. And year-to-date, net charge-offs are at 2.4% compared to an average of 3.7% in the pre-pandemic period.

我們沒有接觸過位於內地城市中心的大型寫字樓租戶CRE。該投資組合具有良好的信用風險狀況，不良貸款和分類貸款水平較低。就我們的信用卡、汽車和租賃投資組合而言，這些投資組合的信用風險狀況取決於波多黎各就業市場經濟活動的強度，以及過去幾年我們起源的信用質量。就信用卡而言，30 歲以上人群的拖欠率為 2.8%，而 2011 年至 2019 年疫情爆發前的平均拖欠率為 3.7%。今年迄今為止，淨沖銷率為 2.4%，而大流行前時期的平均沖銷率為 3.7%。

In terms of auto loans, 30-plus delinquency is at 3.7% compared to an average of 6.2% in the 2011 - 2019 period, and year-to-date net charge-offs are at 60 basis points compared to an average of 1.9% in the pre-pandemic period. For lease financing, 30-plus delinquency is at 1.3% compared to an average of 2.1% in the 2011 - 2019 period, and year-to-date net charge-offs are at 20 basis points compared to an average of [70] basis points in the pre-pandemic period.

就汽車貸款而言，30歲以上的貸款拖欠率為3.7%，而2011年至2019年期間的平均比率為6.2%，年初至今的淨沖銷率為60個基點，而平均比率為1.9%在大流行前期。對於租賃融資，30 歲以上的拖欠率為 1.3%，而 2011 年至 2019 年期間的平均率為 2.1%，年初至今的淨沖銷率為 20 個基點，而平均水平為 [70] 個基點疫情爆發前的時間點。

Turning to Slide #10. Nonperforming assets decreased by $32 million to $472 million this quarter, driven by an NPL decrease in Puerto Rico of $27 million due to lower mortgage NPLs by $30 million, offset in part by higher construction NPLs due to a single $9 million relationship. Overall balances also decreased by $6 million. NPL inflows decreased by $10 million quarter-over-quarter, driven by lower commercial NPLs in Puerto Rico by $13 million and lower mortgage NPLs in Puerto Rico by $7 million, offset in part by the previously mentioned construction NPL relationship. Inflows in the U.S. remained flat quarter-over-quarter. At the end of the quarter, the ratio of NPLs to total loans held in portfolio decreased to 1.2% from 1.3% in the previous quarter.

轉向幻燈片 #10。本季度不良資產減少3,200 萬美元，至4.72 億美元，原因是波多黎各的不良貸款減少了2,700 萬美元，原因是抵押貸款不良貸款減少了3,000 萬美元，但部分被單一900 萬美元關係造成的建築業不良貸款增加所抵消。總餘額也減少了 600 萬美元。不良貸款流入環比減少 1,000 萬美元，原因是波多黎各商業不良貸款減少 1,300 萬美元，波多黎各抵押貸款不良貸款減少 700 萬美元，部分被前面提到的建築不良貸款關係所抵消。美國的資金流入環比持平。截至季末，不良貸款佔組合貸款總額的比率由上季度的1.3%下降至1.2%。

Turning to Slide 11. Net charge-offs amounted to $24 million or annualized to a 9 basis point of average loans held in portfolio compared to $33 million or 41 basis points in the prior quarter. The quarter-over-quarter improvement was driven by a $10.5 million line of credit charge-off in the prior quarter.

轉向幻燈片 11。淨沖銷額為 2,400 萬美元，或按年化計算為投資組合中持有的平均貸款的 9 個基點，而上一季度為 3,300 萬美元，或 41 個基點。環比改善是由上一季度 1,050 萬美元的信貸額度沖銷推動的。

Please turn to Slide #12. At June 30, 2023, the ACL increased by $11 million to $700 million, driven by portfolio changes due to higher specific reserves, higher volume and changing the FICO mix of consumer portfolios. Changes in the macroeconomic scenario caused the ACL to increase by $8 million, which were offset in part by a change in the mix in the probability weight of macroeconomic scenarios by $6 million. During the second quarter, we lowered the probability weights assigned to the pessimistic scenario and increase the priority of weight assigned to the baseline scenario. Changes to qualitative reserve reduced the ACL by $5 million. The provision for credit losses was $37 million compared to $48 million in the prior quarter. In Puerto Rico, the provision was $28 million compared to $45 million in the prior quarter while the provision for the U.S. was $7 million compared to $2 million. The corporation ratio of ACL to loan servicing portfolio remained flat at 2.1%, while the ratio of ACL to NPL stood at 182% compared to 167% in the previous quarter.

請翻到幻燈片 #12。截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日，ACL 增加了 1100 萬美元，達到 7 億美元，這是由於特定準備金增加、交易量增加以及消費者投資組合的 FICO 組合變化導致的投資組合變化。宏觀經濟情景的變化導致 ACL 增加了 800 萬美元，但宏觀經濟情景概率權重組合變化 600 萬美元部分抵消了這一增加。在第二季度，我們降低了分配給悲觀場景的概率權重，並增加了分配給基準場景的權重優先級。質量儲備的變化使 ACL 減少了 500 萬美元。信貸損失準備金為 3700 萬美元，而上一季度為 4800 萬美元。在波多黎各，撥備金額為 2800 萬美元，而上一季度為 4500 萬美元；在美國，撥備金額為 700 萬美元，而上一季度為 200 萬美元。 ACL 與貸款服務組合的公司比率保持在 2.1%，而 ACL 與不良貸款的比率為 182%，而上一季度為 167%。

To summarize, our loan portfolio continues to exhibit strong credit quality trends in the second quarter with low net charge-offs and decrease in nonperforming loans. We remain attentive to the evolving environment, we remain encouraged by the post-pandemic performance of our loan book. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Ignacio for his concluding remarks. Thank you.

總而言之，我們的貸款組合在第二季度繼續表現出強勁的信貸質量趨勢，淨沖銷率較低，不良貸款也有所減少。我們仍然關注不斷變化的環境，我們仍然對大流行後貸款簿的表現感到鼓舞。至此，我想將電話轉給伊格納西奧，讓他作總結髮言。謝謝。

Thank you, Lidio and Carlos, for your updates. Our results for the first half of 2023 were strong, driven by solid earnings, robust loan growth, positive credit quality and continued customer growth. Our diversified business model, robust levels of capital and most importantly, the talent and dedication of our people position us well to support and meet the evolving needs of our growing customer base. We're optimistic about the opportunities that lie ahead. Economic trends in Puerto Rico continue to be positive, a considerable amount of recovery funds yet to be disbursed are expected to support increased economic activity in the coming years.

謝謝 Lidio 和 Carlos 的最新消息。在穩健的盈利、強勁的貸款增長、良好的信貸質量和持續的客戶增長的推動下，我們 2023 年上半年的業績強勁。我們多元化的業務模式、穩健的資本水平以及最重要的是我們員工的才華和奉獻精神使我們能夠很好地支持和滿足不斷增長的客戶群不斷變化的需求。我們對未來的機遇感到樂觀。波多黎各的經濟趨勢繼續向好，大量尚未支付的複蘇資金預計將支持未來幾年經濟活動的增長。

We made progress in our transformation initiatives during the quarter, which, over time, will drive more customer connectivity, operational efficiencies and greater potential for profitable growth and sustained return on capital. In June, we released our annual corporate sustainability report. We continue to focus on providing opportunity for progress for taking the environment and promoting leadership. We are mindful of the responsibility we have to Puerto Rico as the leading banking institution and to all the communities that we proudly serve. We are now ready to answer your questions.

本季度我們的轉型計劃取得了進展，隨著時間的推移，這將推動更多的客戶連接、運營效率以及更大的盈利增長和持續資本回報潛力。六月，我們發布了年度企業可持續發展報告。我們繼續致力於為保護環境和提升領導力提供進步機會。我們牢記作為領先的銀行機構對波多黎各以及我們自豪地服務的所有社區所承擔的責任。我們現在準備回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions). We'll take our first question from Timur Braziler from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）。我們將回答來自富國銀行的 Timur Braziler 的第一個問題。

Maybe starting on the loan growth, that's remained quite strong now for many consecutive quarters. I'm just wondering, as you look ahead, is this kind of where we're at for the foreseeable future? Or just given the remaining idiosyncratic tailwinds for the island, does loan growth actually accelerate as some of these construction projects you referenced come online?

也許從貸款增長開始，現在已經連續多個季度保持相當強勁。我只是想知道，當你展望未來時，我們在可預見的未來是否會面臨這種情況？或者考慮到該島剩餘的特殊推動力，隨著您提到的一些建設項目上線，貸款增長實際上會加速嗎？

Well, this is Ignacio. As in the past, it's always hard to project and forecast loan growth in Puerto Rico is coming and it's very lumpy, especially the larger loans that drive some of the growth but what I can say is that we continue to have good pipelines, good demand from our customers. We're not seeing that decrease so again, I don't want to put a percentage level on it, but we have strong loan demand both in Puerto Rico and the U.S. So I wouldn't put a number on it, but we certainly don't see it decelerating at this point.

嗯，這是伊格納西奧。與過去一樣，總是很難預測和預測波多黎各即將到來的貸款增長，而且非常不穩定，尤其是推動部分增長的較大貸款，但我可以說的是，我們仍然擁有良好的渠道和良好的需求來自我們的客戶。我們沒有看到這種下降，所以我不想給出一個百分比水平，但我們在波多黎各和美國都有強勁的貸款需求，所以我不會給出一個數字，但我們當然目前還沒有看到它減速。

Okay. And then as far as appetite for mainland credit, the growth in construction I'm assuming that's contractual in loans funding up and then just maybe speak more broadly about appetite and growing the mainland portfolio in the face of what's expected to be an uncertain credit environment at the back end of the year.

好的。然後就對大陸信貸的興趣而言，我假設建築業的增長是貸款融資的合同增長，然後可能會更廣泛地談論興趣和麵對預計不確定的信貸環境而增長的大陸投資組合在今年年底。

Yes. Let you, could add more to that. But I want to point out that we've always been a construction lender, especially in the New York metro area but we are not very involved in the office sector. So we're mostly -- most of our construction is around multifamily. So I think we're continuing to be prudent and lending to existing clients. But I don't see us pulling back from our traditional markets that we serve. Again, we're not in the office sector. I don't know, Lid, if you want to add anything.

是的。讓你，可以添加更多。但我想指出的是，我們一直是一家建築貸款機構，尤其是在紐約都會區，但我們並不太涉足辦公領域。所以我們的大部分建設都是圍繞多戶住宅進行的。因此，我認為我們將繼續保持謹慎態度，向現有客戶提供貸款。但我不認為我們會從我們所服務的傳統市場撤退。再說一次，我們不是在辦公領域。我不知道，Lid，你是否想補充什麼。

Thats perfect.

那很完美。

Okay. And then maybe switching to the funding of this loan growth, just given the seasonal trends in public funds and those coming down in the back end of the year, coupled with the loan-to-deposit ratio that still has plenty of room to move higher. Is there a wantingness to fund the upcoming loan growth through incremental deposits? Or are you okay borrowing at this level in funding the new growth?

好的。然後，考慮到公共資金的季節性趨勢和年底的下降，加上貸存比仍有很大的上升空間，可能會轉向為貸款增長提供資金。是否願意通過增量存款來為即將到來的貸款增長提供資金？或者您是否可以以這個水平借款來為新的增長提供資金？

Hi Tim, it's Carlos. At this point in time, we do have a very strong liquidity position. So everything else being equal, our first quarter call would be our cash to fund on loan growth. We are very lucky that the yields on our loan book are quite attractive. So they're even more attractive than the yields we can achieve in some of our investment portfolio. So that will be first call. At this point in time, I don't envision as having significant margins to fund on growth.

嗨蒂姆，我是卡洛斯。目前，我們的流動性狀況確實非常強勁。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們第一季度的呼籲將是用現金為貸款增長提供資金。我們很幸運，我們的貸款簿上的收益率相當有吸引力。因此，它們比我們在某些投資組合中可以獲得的收益率更具吸引力。這將是第一個電話。目前，我並不認為有足夠的利潤來為增長提供資金。

Okay. That's helpful. And then last for me, just on the expenses. Any color you can provide on the profit sharing component pretty big quarter relative to Street expectations. And I know Street is kind of the proxy that you have used in the past for determining whether or not we're going to have profit sharing contribution. But your comments on hoping to come in better than that $1.87 million. I'm just wondering what the outlook is for profit sharing in relation to that comment.

好的。這很有幫助。最後對我來說，只是費用。相對於華爾街的預期，你可以在利潤分享部分提供相當大的季度的任何顏色。我知道 Street 是您過去用來確定我們是否將進行利潤分享貢獻的代理。但你的評論是希望能獲得比那 187 萬美元更好的收入。我只是想知道與該評論相關的利潤分享前景如何。

At this point in time, there is no consideration of profit sharing in our numbers.

目前，我們的數字中沒有考慮利潤分享。

Our next question comes from Brode Preston from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅德·普雷斯頓。

I wanted just to ask on the FTE adjustment, I guess I was a little bit perplexed this quarter, the FTE adjustment keeps moving a bit lower, but the tax rate was kind of flattish and it looks like you kind of narrowed the guidance range a little bit. I guess, can you maybe explain again, the dynamics between what's happening with the FTE adjustment and the tax rate at this point?

我只是想問一下 FTE 調整，我想這個季度我有點困惑，FTE 調整一直在降低，但稅率有點持平，看起來你們縮小了指導範圍一點。我想，您能否再次解釋一下目前 FTE 調整與稅率之間的動態關係？

This is Jorge Garcia. It is a complicated question. I don't blame you. The first thing I would say is that the disallowance of our interest expense, which is really what drives the FTE adjustment is increasing given that the cost of deposits are increasing. So that's the first impact that you're seeing. Essentially, our tax-free income is becoming less. Your other question is why isn't -- why are we seeing a change necessarily in our effective tax rate. And that has to do with GAAP accounting where you try to anticipate changes in that effective tax rate throughout the year and you make adjustments for that on a quarter-by-quarter basis. So you normalize it.

這是豪爾赫·加西亞。這是一個複雜的問題。我不怪你。我要說的第一件事是，鑑於存款成本不斷增加，我們對利息費用的禁止（這實際上是 FTE 調整的推動因素）正在增加。這就是您看到的第一個影響。本質上，我們的免稅收入正在減少。你的另一個問題是為什麼不——為什麼我們看到我們的有效稅率必然發生變化。這與公認會計準則會計有關，您試圖預測全年有效稅率的變化，並按季度進行調整。所以你將其標準化。

Okay. Okay. Maybe just shifting to deposit costs. I think you provided the betas, the cumulative betas for the interest-bearing portions cycle to date for the retail, commercial and public deposits. I know the public is going to be 100% with a lag. But just on the commercial and retail side. Just wanted to get your thoughts, if you have any on where you thought those betas would end the year by the fourth quarter of this year.

好的。好的。也許只是轉移到存款成本。我認為您提供了貝塔值，即迄今為止零售、商業和公共存款的計息部分的累積貝塔值。我知道公眾會 100% 有滯後。但僅限於商業和零售方面。只是想了解一下您的想法，如果您認為這些測試版將在今年第四季度結束。

Yes. Well, it depends in part on what the Fed does today and what the Fed does the rest of the year, frankly. I think the trends are trends that can be expected to continue, meaning that our betas in Puerto Rico will continue to be lower in our retail and commercial businesses. Commercial slightly higher and retail a lot lower than the market betas. And then we'll have a betas that slightly higher or closer to market averages in our bank in the U.S. So I think those trends will probably continue. So to the extent that the Fed is done, this afternoon then -- that will affect how it looks for the rest of the year.

是的。坦率地說，這部分取決於美聯儲今天的行動以及今年剩餘時間的行動。我認為這些趨勢預計會持續下去，這意味著我們在波多黎各的零售和商業業務的貝塔值將繼續較低。商業貝塔值略高於市場貝塔值，零售貝塔值則遠低於市場貝塔值。然後我們的貝塔值將略高於或接近我們美國銀行的市場平均水平，所以我認為這些趨勢可能會持續下去。因此，就美聯儲今天下午的決定而言，這將影響今年剩餘時間的表現。

Okay. And then just last one for me for right now is just on the securities book. I'm sorry if you already touched on it and I missed it. Just wanted to get your thoughts on how that's going to ebb and flow and uses of securities cash flows at this point for the remainder of the year. You had negative growth in the first 2 quarters of this year. Just wondering if we're going to continue to use that as a source of liquidity going forward?

好的。對我來說，現在的最後一項就在證券賬簿上。如果你已經觸及它而我錯過了，我很抱歉。只是想了解一下您對今年剩餘時間裡證券現金流將如何潮起潮落以及如何使用的想法。今年前兩個季度出現負增長。只是想知道我們是否會繼續使用它作為未來的流動性來源？

Yes. I -- we've been cautious with and actually have been building cash because of the uncertainty on the last couple of quarters, Brode, I think we feel a lot better than a lot of that is behind us now. So what you should see starting this quarter is that we'll start to redeploy some of the cash. We will probably end up with lower credit balances, hopefully because we have a lot of loans first. But even without that, we'll start to redeploy some of that cash it may not change the profile of the investment portfolio too much because some of that redeployment will probably be in T-bills where the yield is going to be similar, and the liquidity will be basically cash like but it will provide us a tax benefit. So...

是的。我——由於過去幾個季度的不確定性，我們一直保持謹慎態度，實際上一直在積累現金，布羅德，我認為我們感覺比現在已經過去的很多事情要好得多。因此，從本季度開始，您應該看到我們將開始重新部署一些現金。我們最終可能會得到較低的信貸餘額，希望是因為我們首先擁有大量貸款。但即使沒有這一點，我們將開始重新部署一些現金，它可能不會太大地改變投資組合的狀況，因為其中一些重新部署可能會出現在收益率相似的國債中，並且流動性基本上類似於現金，但它將為我們提供稅收優惠。所以...

Our next question comes from Alex Twerdahl from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Alex Twerdahl。

Just keeping on that last question on the tax rate on the T-bills. Does the tax range that you've provided, the 22%, 25% does that anticipate any additional investment into T-bills as the year progresses?

繼續討論關於國庫券稅率的最後一個問題。您提供的稅收範圍（22%、25%）是否預計隨著時間的推移會對國庫券進行任何額外投資？

Yes. That range incorporates our best guess of what we're going to do with the balance sheet the rest of the year, yes.

是的。是的，這個範圍包含了我們對今年剩餘時間將如何處理資產負債表的最佳猜測。

Okay. And then I got to dig into just the comments on the buyback a little bit. Can you just sort of -- I know there's obviously a lot of uncertainty in the banking environment, but is it specifically uncertain around new capital rules for CCAR banks? Is it specifically around waiting to see credit develops? Or kind of what are the trigger points? And then maybe just remind us how the process works. If you do go through and raise the dividend? Is it a similar process to your normal capital plans? Or is it different in any way from what you normally go through each year?

好的。然後我深入研究了有關回購的評論。我知道銀行環境顯然存在很多不確定性，但 CCAR 銀行的新資本規則尤其不確定嗎？是專門為了等待信貸發展嗎？或者觸發點是什麼？然後也許只是提醒我們這個過程是如何運作的。如果你真的通過並提高股息？這與您正常的資本計劃類似嗎？或者它與你每年通常經歷的事情有什麼不同嗎？

Okay. Let me kind of walk through some thoughts on capital to -- I think we'll can address a lot of your questions, Alex, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we expect to consider a dividend increase in 2023, probably late in the third quarter of this year. And at this time, no buyback is planned for the rest of this year. Obviously, the final decision of any dividend increase especially with our Board of Directors. So they'll have the final call on that. We described some of our thinking process in the past that as we look at capital action, it depends on us getting -- we're looking for 3 things to inform our actions; number one, clarity on the path of interest rates; number two, clarity on the path for the economy; and lastly, clarity on the path for regulation. Those are sort of the inputs that help us to make decisions. Now it is still uncertain. I mean we're getting some information from the Fed tomorrow on capital, which will be a nice first step to start adding some clarity to the process.

好的。讓我來談談關於資本的一些想法——亞歷克斯，我想我們可以解決你的很多問題，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們預計會在2023 年考慮增加股息，可能是在2023 年晚些時候。今年第三季度。目前，今年剩餘時間沒有回購計劃。顯然，任何增加股息的最終決定，尤其是我們的董事會。所以他們將對此做出最後決定。我們過去描述了我們的一些思維過程，當我們考慮資本行動時，這取決於我們——我們正在尋找三件事來指導我們的行動；第一，利率路徑的明確性；第二，經濟道路的明確性；最後，明確監管路徑。這些是幫助我們做出決策的輸入。現在還不確定。我的意思是，明天我們將從美聯儲獲得一些有關資本的信息，這將是開始使流程更加清晰的第一步。

By the way, we're getting information on capital. We still not getting any -- we're having gotten anything on one liquidity framework that may change, which is also pretty important as we think this through. But we'll start getting some information from -- on that front, at least hopefully, tomorrow, and they'll start informing some of the uncertainty here. Now, so it's clear exactly when we get clarity in this matter, but those are the inputs that we're looking for.

順便說一句，我們正在獲取有關資本的信息。我們仍然沒有得到任何東西——我們在一個可能改變的流動性框架上得到了任何東西，當我們仔細考慮這一點時，這也非常重要。但我們將開始從這方面獲取一些信息，至少希望明天，他們將開始告知一些不確定性。現在，我們什麼時候弄清楚這個問題就很清楚了，但這些正是我們正在尋找的輸入。

Additionally, while it's not a required regulatory ratio, TCE and therefore, ACI are considerations in our decision-making process. So that is the consideration. What I can say today, as far as the process, which is the second part of your question, is that presently, we do not plan to return to our historical cadence of a yearly capital actions announcement in January. Instead, while still not decided, moving forward, we will probably shift to capital management process that is closer to what most other banks do, where we will periodically announce stock repurchase authorization that may be executed from time to time. So this is -- so we can tell you so far and the process, we always advise the regulators and anything we're doing with regards to capital. It will be no different this time. And hopefully, get back to you late in the third quarter with a decision on the dividend.

此外，雖然 TCE 和 ACI 不是必需的監管比率，但它是我們決策過程中的考慮因素。所以這就是考慮。今天我能說的是，就程序而言，也就是你問題的第二部分，我們目前不打算回到一月份宣布年度資本行動的歷史節奏。相反，雖然尚未決定，但展望未來，我們可能會轉向更接近大多數其他銀行所做的資本管理流程，我們將定期宣布可能不時執行的股票回購授權。所以，到目前為止，我們可以告訴你整個過程，我們總是向監管機構以及我們在資本方面所做的任何事情提供建議。這次也不會有什麼不同。希望我們能在第三季度末回复您，並就股息做出決定。

Okay. That's good information. I mean just in terms of that process, like suppose we got some clarity on rates as early as today and some clarity on regulation tomorrow and economy we're never going to get clarity on. But how long would it take you to actually go through that like the whole process with the Fed. Is that something that is a pretty quick thing. I remember when you guys did the Evertec thing. This seems like the approval happened basically almost overnight. I'm just curious if that's evolved and gotten any easier over the years.

好的。這是個好信息。我的意思是就這個過程而言，假設我們早在今天就對利率有了一些明確的了解，並且對明天的監管和經濟有了一些明確的了解，而我們永遠不會弄清楚。但你需要多長時間才能真正完成與美聯儲的整個過程。這是一件非常快的事情嗎？我記得你們做 Evertec 的時候。看起來批准幾乎是在一夜之間發生的。我只是好奇這些年來這是否有所發展並變得更加容易。

I mean, the Fed always has the option to decide everything on their timetable. But the fact is that we've been working very effectively with our regulators over the last few years. Frankly, you've seen it and what you mentioned on the approval in Evertec is a reflection of it that we try to work closely with them. We're trying to never surprise them. They are always informed of what we're trying to do. And if they have to be involved they have been very responsive in working with us if we have a timetable that we're trying to meet. So our relationship is very good and over the years, they've gotten better understanding what we're doing. We're getting better of asking the right questions.

我的意思是，美聯儲總是可以選擇決定其時間表上的一切。但事實是，過去幾年我們一直與監管機構非常有效地合作。坦率地說，你已經看到了，你提到的 Evertec 的批准反映了我們試圖與他們密切合作。我們盡量不讓他們感到驚訝。他們總是知道我們正在嘗試做什麼。如果他們必須參與，如果我們有一個我們想要滿足的時間表，他們會非常積極地與我們合作。所以我們的關係非常好，多年來，他們對我們所做的事情有了更好的理解。我們越來越善於提出正確的問題。

Got it. And then one final question for me. I wanted to just to sort of dig into a conversation we haven't talked about in probably a couple of conference calls, but M&A in the North American franchise. And it just seems to me like we're hearing anecdotally and seeing more announcements of loan sales. Some of them related to specific asset classes that you may or may not want to be into, some of them related to rates. But it seems like there's going to be potentially a bunch of loan sales coming up, even some from the FDIC that are going to be potentially coming at pretty big discounts. I'm curious, you guys have tons of capital in North America. If you have appetite to do some loan purchases? And if so, what the criteria might be?

知道了。最後還有一個問題要問我。我只是想深入探討一下我們可能在幾次電話會議中沒有討論過的話題，但北美特許經營權的併購。在我看來，我們似乎聽到了軼事並看到了更多貸款銷售的公告。其中一些與您可能想要或不想進入的特定資產類別有關，其中一些與利率有關。但似乎可能會出現大量貸款銷售，甚至一些來自 FDIC 的貸款可能會以相當大的折扣出售。我很好奇，你們在北美擁有大量資本。您是否有興趣貸款購買？如果是這樣，標準可能是什麼？

Yes. This is Ignacio. I think we've said it before, we view ourselves as opportunistic buyers of assets. So there's pools of assets that interest us, we will definitely go there. I think the assets that would interest us would be mostly those things that we are -- we feel we have a certain level of expertise in. So we have a certain level of expertise in CRE, our healthcare financing, the kind of mini association financing, those are things that would be of interest to us. So we're not going to buy office portfolios at a discount, that kind of thing, even if it's a very attractive price, we're not going to do something because that's not something that we have a particular level of expertise. I don't think we'd probably go after mortgage assets either. So I think it will be more in the commercial area. But if there are attractive assets in those areas that we feel we know well, we would be interested to look at them, sure.

是的。這是伊格納西奧。我想我們之前已經說過，我們將自己視為資產的機會主義買家。所以有一些我們感興趣的資產池，我們一定會去那裡。我認為我們感興趣的資產主要是我們本身的資產——我們認為我們在這方面擁有一定程度的專業知識。因此，我們在商業地產、我們的醫療保健融資、小型協會融資方面擁有一定水平的專業知識，這些都是我們感興趣的事情。因此，我們不會以折扣價購買辦公組合，即使價格非常有吸引力，我們也不會做某事，因為這不是我們擁有特定專業知識水平的事情。我認為我們也不會追求抵押資產。所以我認為會更多地在商業領域。但如果我們認為自己熟悉的那些領域存在有吸引力的資產，我們當然會有興趣關注它們。

(Operator Instructions). Our next question comes from Kelly Motta from KBW.

（操作員說明）。我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Kelly Motta。

I thought I would just close the loop on the capital discussion. I appreciate the commentary that you're reviewing the dividend now. Can you remind us what you guys can sort of target in terms of your dividend payout ratio? And how we should be thinking about that as we review the dividend here?

我想我應該結束資本討論的循環。我很欣賞您現在正在審查股息的評論。您能否提醒我們，你們的股息支付率可以達到什麼目標？當我們審查這裡的股息時，我們應該如何考慮這一點？

Yes. There is -- what we target is what we hear from regulators, which seems to be something ordering around 30% of income. So that's what we're trying to target. A couple of recent announcements have taken banks slightly above that. So we are attentive to that. We also don't know what their forecasts are. So they may end up at 30% depending on what they have -- how they're looking at the year. But that's the broad guide is what we understand to be the regulatory preference that dividends be around that level.

是的。我們的目標是從監管機構那裡聽到的，這似乎是收入的 30% 左右。這就是我們努力的目標。最近的幾項公告使銀行的股價略高於這一水平。所以我們對此很關注。我們也不知道他們的預測是什麼。因此，他們最終可能會獲得 30%，這取決於他們擁有什麼——以及他們對這一年的看法。但這是我們所理解的廣泛指導，即股息在該水平附近的監管偏好。

Yes. And this is Ignacio. We try to make the dividends to a little bit every year. so that we don't have a big ramp up in 1 year. So we try to do it incrementally. And I think we've been very successful in the past in doing that.

是的。這是伊格納西奧。我們努力每年派發一點點股息。這樣我們就不會在一年內出現大幅增長。所以我們嘗試逐步進行。我認為我們過去在這方面非常成功。

Understood. Appreciate the color. I did want to flip to the deposit base specifically the core deposit base, excluding the government deposits. It looks like there, most of the growth came from the U.S. Can you kind of walk us through your strategies there? And any deposit campaigns are running. And as we look ahead with excess liquidity, Puerto Rico is still high, but -- and really money coming in. But obviously, where we are in the cycle, just kind of outlook for how much higher liquidity balances or whatever you want to call it, is left and what we should be thinking about the deposit outlook putting that -- those dynamics together?

明白了。欣賞顏色。我確實想轉向存款基礎，特別是核心存款基礎，不包括政府存款。看起來大部分增長來自美國。您能向我們介紹一下您在那裡的策略嗎？任何存款活動都在進行。當我們展望未來的流動性過剩時，波多黎各的流動性仍然很高，但是——而且確實有資金進來。但顯然，我們處於週期的哪個位置，只是流動性餘額增加多少或你想稱之為的任何東西的前景剩下的就是我們應該如何考慮存款前景，將這些動態放在一起？

Yes. The -- as I mentioned in the earlier question, I think it's fair to assume that our cash balances will be coming down in the rest of the year from where they are today. The biggest part of the deposit increase this quarter was still public sector deposits in Puerto Rico and then there is a good chunk at Popular Bank. We continue to try to strengthen the deposit business of Popular Bank. So that is a focus of the company. The efforts actually -- the most obvious efforts are the increase in deposits through our online channel because that reacts quickly but there's another -- a bunch of other business efforts intended to actually improve the deposit business of Popular Bank as well. The problem with those is that they are less visible because they move slower. So that is not the only tool we have to improve the deposit business, which is our goal. We are moving different levers. This lever happens to be the most obvious one obvious because it's the one that moves the quickest.

是的。正如我在前面的問題中提到的，我認為可以公平地假設我們的現金餘額在今年剩餘時間內將比今天的水平有所下降。本季度存款增長的最大部分仍然是波多黎各公共部門的存款，其中很大一部分來自大眾銀行。我們繼續努力加強大眾銀行的存款業務。所以這是公司的重點。實際上，最明顯的努力是通過我們的在線渠道增加存款，因為反應很快，但還有其他一些努力，旨在實際改善大眾銀行的存款業務。它們的問題是它們不太明顯，因為它們移動得較慢。因此，這並不是我們改善存款業務的唯一工具，這才是我們的目標。我們正在移動不同的槓桿。這個槓桿恰好是最明顯的一個，因為它移動得最快。

Yes. In terms of Puerto Rico, while deposits have gone down somewhat. The average balances of our retail and small business clients, especially are still way above pre-pandemic levels. So we don't -- I don't think we view the necessity of starting aggressive marketing campaigns in Puerto Rico at this point given our deposit levels.

是的。就波多黎各而言，存款有所下降。尤其是我們的零售和小型企業客戶的平均餘額仍遠高於大流行前的水平。因此，考慮到我們的存款水平，我認為我們認為目前沒有必要在波多黎各開展積極的營銷活動。

I appreciate the color. That was my follow-up. I'll step back then.

我很欣賞它的顏色。這是我的後續行動。那我就退後一步。

Our final question comes from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital.

我們的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本公司的杰拉德·卡西迪。

Can you guys give us some color? Obviously, Puerto Rico over the years has had a healthy manufacturing component to your economy. I know in your prepared remarks, that you talked about tourism and how well that's going. In the state side, there is clear evidence of the onshoring of manufacturing coming back to Ohio or Indiana, et cetera. Are you guys seeing any evidence of the benefit of that possibly coming to Puerto Rico?

你們能給我們一些顏色嗎？顯然，多年來波多黎各的製造業對經濟有著健康的影響。我知道您在準備好的發言中談到了旅遊業以及旅遊業的進展情況。在州方面，有明顯的證據表明製造業回流到俄亥俄州或印第安納州等地。你們有看到任何證據表明這可能會給波多黎各帶來好處嗎？

The manufacturing sector, based on the economic activity index is relatively healthy in Puerto Rico. It's been growing. Sometimes it goes up for a few quarters and then it goes down a bit. But frankly, it's been mostly in our traditional sectors. The medical device sector, which has been very strong in Puerto Rico, also the aerodynamic area, the technology relating to airplanes and motors and that kind of things is very popular on the West Coast. I haven't seen to date many brand-new -- at the beginning of last year, we saw a couple of foreign firms come in an Indian company, I believe, a Mexican company. So we've seen some foreign people -- foreign firms that don't have perhaps any presence in the U.S. using Puerto Rico as their initial point, especially in the pharmaceutical, the generic pharmaceutical side. But to be honest, I haven't seen a big impact from the onshore in yet. We had a big promise for that, but it's been mostly the dynamism has been in and there are traditional sectors that have been growing.

根據經濟活動指數，波多黎各的製造業相對健康。它一直在增長。有時它會上升幾個季度，然後又下降一點。但坦率地說，這主要發生在我們的傳統行業。波多黎各的醫療器械行業非常強大，空氣動力學領域、與飛機和發動機相關的技術等在西海岸也很受歡迎。到目前為止，我還沒有看到很多全新的公司——去年年初，我們看到幾家外國公司進來了一家印度公司，我相信還有一家墨西哥公司。因此，我們看到一些外國人——可能在美國沒有任何業務的外國公司以波多黎各為起點，特別是在製藥、仿製藥方面。但說實話，我還沒有看到陸上帶來的巨大影響。我們對此做出了很大的承諾，但主要是充滿活力，並且傳統行業一直在增長。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, I believe the PREPA bankruptcy schedule was suspended in June. Do you guys have any updates on what's going on there with the bankruptcy of PREPA resolution that is?

非常好。接下來，我相信 PREPA 破產計劃已於 6 月暫停。你們有關於 PREPA 決議破產的最新情況嗎？

Not really. We don't know really more than we read in the press. I mean, we're optimistic that the most recent proposal will get approved. Obviously, it means they're cutting the debt down more and the rates will obviously have to go up less than on the prior plan. So we're optimistic that we can get this behind us. But really, we don't have a lot of inside baseball on what's going on there behind the scenes.

並不真地。我們所知道的並不比我們在媒體上讀到的更多。我的意思是，我們對最新提案獲得批准感到樂觀。顯然，這意味著他們將進一步削減債務，並且利率的上升幅度顯然必須低於之前的計劃。因此，我們樂觀地認為我們可以解決這個問題。但實際上，我們並沒有太多關於棒球內部幕後發生的事情的信息。

Got it. And I apologize if you addressed this, I came late on to the call. But did you guys, Carlos, give us the burn-down rate for the next couple of years of the bond portfolio? What percentage of it will pay off and by now and the end of 2024.

知道了。如果您解決了這個問題，我深表歉意，因為我遲到了。但是卡洛斯，你們給我們提供了未來幾年債券投資組合的燃盡率嗎？從現在到 2024 年底，其中的多少百分比將得到回報。

Yes. I mean it's on Page 8 of the deck, Gerard. So that kind of gives you an idea, so I mean it's some pretty aggressive roll down in the treasury portfolio for the next 2 years. MBS is they'll be kind of present there. They're paying very slowly. So that's something that, as Carlos mentioned, if you have a rate reversal and prepayment fees start to pick up again, you could see some acceleration there, but we're not necessarily forecasting that. You have about $8 billion or so that has -- that's an AFS and treasuries that has an average life of around 1.5 years. So I'll kind of give you an idea of how that rolls in. As Carlos mentioned, just complementing that, we'd probably be at least for now reinvesting some of those proceeds and T-bills, treasury curves inverted. So actually picking up yield a bit doing that and maintaining a relatively shorter portfolio as well.

是的。我的意思是它在套牌的第 8 頁上，杰拉德。這給了你一個想法，所以我的意思是，未來兩年國庫券投資組合將進行相當激進的縮減。 MBS 是他們會出現在那裡。他們付款速度非常慢。因此，正如卡洛斯提到的那樣，如果利率逆轉並且預付款費用開始再次上升，您可能會看到一些加速，但我們不一定會預測到這一點。大約有 80 億美元左右——這是 AFS 和國債，平均壽命約為 1.5 年。所以我會告訴你這是如何發生的。正如卡洛斯提到的，只是補充一下，我們可能至少現在會再投資其中一些收益和國庫券，國庫曲線倒轉。因此，這樣做實際上會提高收益率，並保持相對較短的投資組合。

Very good. And then just lastly, the way the balance sheet is positioned today, when we're on this call a year from now, let's say, next July, what kind of interest rate environment would be ideal for a Popular over the next 12 months, both long and short end of the curve?

非常好。最後，今天的資產負債表定位方式，當我們一年後召開電話會議時，比方說，明年 7 月，什麼樣的利率環境對於未來 12 個月的民眾來說是理想的，曲線的長端和短端？

I guess I can answer that. You basically, if you have like a reduction in short-term rates, that's going to reduce the -- what we pay on the public sector deposits, as Carlos mentioned as well, it's a market linked with a lag. So you'd see some pressure coming down from our cost of deposits from that standpoint and a steepening. So any kind of intermediate-level assets kind of repricing at a higher spread to short-term rates is naturally what typically a bank likes. Our positioning is relatively neutral right now. So we're not really expecting major swings due to interest rates, at least in our current balance sheet positioning.

我想我可以回答這個問題。基本上，如果你想降低短期利率，那就會減少我們為公共部門存款支付的費用，正如卡洛斯也提到的那樣，這是一個與滯後相關的市場。因此，從這個角度來看，我們的存款成本會帶來一些壓力，並且會變得陡峭。因此，任何類型的中等水平資產以較高的短期利率利差重新定價，自然是銀行通常喜歡的。目前我們的定位相對中立。因此，我們並不真正預計利率會造成重大波動，至少在我們目前的資產負債表定位中是這樣。

Like most banks, there are a normal yield curve at a lower short-term level tends to be good for the business.

與大多數銀行一樣，正常的收益率曲線處於較低的短期水平往往對業務有利。

Very good. I appreciate the color. Thank you...

非常好。我很欣賞它的顏色。謝謝...

There are no further questions on the line. So at this time, I would like to hand back to Ignacio, who will add for any closing comments.

線路上沒有其他問題。因此，現在我想將時間交還給伊格納西奧，他將補充任何結束語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your questions. We look forward to updating you on our progress in October. Have a great day.

謝謝大家今天加入我們並提出問題。我們期待向您通報十月份的最新進展。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference for everybody very. Thank you very much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great rest of your day.

今天的會議就為大家結束了。非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。祝您度過愉快的一天。