(BPOP) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to today's Popular Inc. 3Q earnings call. My name is Jordan, and I'll be coordinating your call today.

您好，歡迎參加今天的Popular Inc. 第三季財報電話會議。我叫喬丹，今天我將協調您的電話。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'm now going to hand over to Paul Cardillo, Investor Relations Officer of Popular, to begin. Paul, please go ahead.

我現在將把工作交給Popular 投資者關係官Paul Cardillo 開始。保羅，請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With us on the call today is our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez; our CFO, Carlos Vazquez; and our CRO, Lidio Soriano. They will review our results for the third quarter and then answer your questions. Other members of our management team will also be available during the Q&A session.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天參加電話會議的是我們的執行長伊格納西奧·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Ignacio Alvarez)；我們的財務長卡洛斯·巴斯克斯；還有我們的 CRO Lidio Soriano。他們將審查我們第三季的業績，然後回答您的問題。我們管理團隊的其他成員也將出席問答環節。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that on today's call, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth within today's earnings press release and are detailed in our SEC filings. You may find today's press release and our SEC filings on our webpage at popular.com.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議上，我們可能會根據管理層當前的預期做出前瞻性陳述，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素已在今天的收益新聞稿中闡述，並在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細說明。您可以在我們的網頁 popular.com 上找到今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件。

I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的執行長伊格納西奧·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Ignacio Alvarez)。

Good morning, and thank you for joining the call. We are pleased to report another strong quarter. Net income totaled $137 million, which includes the effect of an after-tax goodwill impairment of $16 million in our U.S.-based equipment leasing subsidiary. Excluding this impact, net income would have been $153 million, $2 million more than the previous quarter. The increase in net income was driven by lower operating expenses and higher net interest income, offset in part by a higher provision for credit losses and higher income taxes.

早安，感謝您加入通話。我們很高興地報告又一個強勁的季度。淨利潤總計 1.37 億美元，其中包括美國設備租賃子公司 1,600 萬美元的稅後商譽減損影響。排除這一影響，淨利潤將為 1.53 億美元，比上一季增加 200 萬美元。淨利潤的成長是由營運費用降低和淨利息收入增加所推動的，但信貸損失撥備增加和所得稅增加部分抵消了淨收入的增加。

We grew loan balances by $1 billion during the quarter. BPPR generated loan growth across almost all business segments reflecting the continued strength of the local economy. Popular Bank achieved growth in commercial and construction loans. Year-to-date, loan balances have grown by $2 billion.

本季我們的貸款餘額增加了 10 億美元。 BPPR 幾乎所有業務部門的貸款都出現成長，反映出當地經濟的持續強勁。大眾銀行商業和建築貸款實現成長。今年迄今為止，貸款餘額增加 20 億美元。

Our net interest margin decreased 7 basis points to 3.07% in the quarter, primarily due to a 27-basis point increase in deposit costs. This was partially offset by higher loan balances and the repricing of loans in a higher interest rate environment. Noninterest income remains solid and continues to benefit from steady customer transactional activity.

本季我們的淨利差下降 7 個基點至 3.07%，主要是因為存款成本增加 27 個基點。這被較高的貸款餘額和較高利率環境下的貸款重新定價所部分抵消。非利息收入保持穩健，並繼續受益於穩定的客戶交易活動。

Excluding the goodwill charge, operating expenses decreased $17 million driven by lower professional fees and customer activity-related fees. Credit quality trends generally remain positive. Nonperforming loans decreased once again and net charge-offs remain well below pre-pandemic levels. While we are beginning to see some credit normalization in the Puerto Rico unsecured consumer segments, we are attentive to the evolving credit landscape and have taken action to address these developments.

不計商譽費用，由於專業費用和客戶活動相關費用下降，營運費用減少了 1,700 萬美元。信貸品質趨勢整體保持積極。不良貸款再次減少，淨沖銷仍遠低於疫情前的水平。雖然我們開始看到波多黎各無擔保消費群體的信貸正常化，但我們仍關注不斷變化的信貸格局，並已採取行動應對這些發展。

Deposit balances at quarter end decreased by approximately $700 million, primarily due to a lower level of Puerto Rico public deposits. However, average deposits for the period increased by $1.4 billion, also driven by public deposit activities. Borrowings decreased by approximately $300 million due to the redemption of senior notes during the quarter. Tangible book value per share ended the quarter at $50.20 and a decrease of $1.17 per share as net income for the period was offset by an increase in the unrealized losses in our investment portfolio. Regulatory capital levels remained strong. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio in the third quarter was 16.8%.

季末存款餘額減少約 7 億美元，主要是因為波多黎各公共存款水準較低。然而，在公共存款活動的推動下，該時期的平均存款增加了 14 億美元。由於本季優先票據的贖回，借款減少了約 3 億美元。本季末，每股有形帳面價值為 50.20 美元，每股減少 1.17 美元，因為該期間的淨利潤被我們投資組合中未實現虧損的增加所抵銷。監理資本水準依然強勁。第三季我們的普通股一級資本比率為 16.8%。

Please turn to Slide 4. I'm very pleased to highlight that during the third quarter, we crossed a significant milestone in Puerto Rico and now serve more than 2 million unique customers. Utilization of digital channels among our retail customers also remain strong. Active users on our Mi Banco platform exceeded $1.1 million or 54% of our customer base.

請參閱投影片 4。我很高興地強調，在第三季度，我們在波多黎各跨越了一個重要的里程碑，現在為超過 200 萬唯一客戶提供服務。我們的零售客戶對數位通路的利用也依然強勁。 Mi Banco 平台上的活躍用戶超過 110 萬美元，占我們客戶群的 54%。

In addition, we continue to capture more than 60% of our deposits through digital channel. In the third quarter, consumer spending remained healthy with combined credit and debit card sales up 6% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Our auto and lease loan balances increased by $104 million compared to the second quarter as demand for cars has continued to be strong in Puerto Rico and available inventories have improved.

此外，我們繼續透過數位管道獲取超過 60% 的存款。第三季度，消費者支出保持健康，信用卡和金融卡銷售額與2022 年第三季度相比增長了6%。由於汽車需求持續增長，我們的汽車和租賃貸款餘額比第二季度增加了1.04億美元。波多黎各市場強勁，可用庫存改善。

Mortgage loan balances at BPPR increased by $121 million sequentially in the third quarter, driven primarily by home purchase activity. The Puerto Rico economy performed well during the third quarter. Business activity is solid and remains in good shape as reflected in the continued positive trends in total employment and other economic data. The tourism and hospitality sector continues to be a source of strength for the local economy. There are roughly $51 billion of hurricane disaster recovery, infrastructure and pandemic rate funds that have yet to be dispersed. The pace of disbursement of these funds has accelerated, and we anticipate that these funds will support future economic activity for several years.

第三季度，BPPR 的抵押貸款餘額環比增加了 1.21 億美元，這主要是由購房活動推動的。波多黎各經濟第三季表現良好。總就業和其他經濟數據的持續積極趨勢反映了商業活動穩健並保持良好狀態。旅遊和酒店業仍然是當地經濟的力量來源。大約有 510 億美元的颶風災難復原、基礎設施和流行病防治資金尚未分配。這些資金的支付速度已經加快，我們預計這些資金將在未來幾年內支持未來的經濟活動。

As this infrastructure investment and the economy expands, we are well positioned to serve the needs of our customers and to benefit from such activity. In short, we are pleased with our results for the quarter, particularly our strong loan growth in both Puerto Rico and in the U.S. as well as the continued strength of our deposit base. We are also encouraged by the strong performance of the Puerto Rico economy. We remain optimistic about the future of our primary market and our ability to manage and serve the needs of our growing customer base.

隨著基礎設施投資和經濟的擴張，我們有能力滿足客戶的需求並從此類活動中受益。簡而言之，我們對本季的業績感到滿意，特別是波多黎各和美國的強勁貸款成長以及存款基礎的持續強勁。我們也對波多黎各經濟的強勁表現感到鼓舞。我們對一級市場的未來以及我們管理和滿足不斷增長的客戶群需求的能力保持樂觀。

I'll now turn the call over to Carlos for more details on our financial results.

我現在將把電話轉給卡洛斯，以了解有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Ignacio. Please turn to Slide 5. We reported net income of $137 million compared to $151 million in Q2. Quarterly net income includes the effect of a goodwill charge. Excluding the charge, net income was $153 million, $2 million higher than the prior quarter. Net interest income was $534 million, $2 million higher than Q2.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧。請參閱投影片 5。我們報告的淨利潤為 1.37 億美元，而第二季為 1.51 億美元。季度淨利包括商譽費用的影響。不計費用，淨利為 1.53 億美元，比上一季增加 200 萬美元。淨利息收入為 5.34 億美元，比第二季增加 200 萬美元。

On a taxable equivalent basis, net interest income was $564 million, an increase of $5 million from Q2 due to higher volume of tax exempt investment securities, offset in part by higher disallowed interest expenses in Puerto Rico taxes. Noninterest income was $160 million, essentially flat with Q2. The provision for current losses was $45 million compared to $37 million in the second quarter.

在應稅等值基礎上，淨利息收入為 5.64 億美元，比第二季增加 500 萬美元，原因是免稅投資證券數量增加，部分被波多黎各稅收中不允許的利息支出增加所抵消。非利息收入為 1.6 億美元，與第二季基本持平。目前虧損撥備為 4,500 萬美元，而第二季為 3,700 萬美元。

Total operating expenses were $466 million in Q3, an increase of $6 million from the prior quarter. This expense number includes a $23 million pretax and noncash goodwill impairment in our U.S.-based equipment leasing subsidiary. The goodwill impairment results roughly from 2 equal effects. First, a higher discount rate for the projected cash flows resulting from higher rates and equity premiums; and second, a lower projection of future income.

第三季總營運費用為 4.66 億美元，比上一季增加 600 萬美元。這筆費用數字包括我們位於美國的設備租賃子公司的 2,300 萬美元稅前和非現金商譽減損。商譽減損大致由兩個相同的影響所造成。首先，較高的利率和股本溢價導致預期現金流量的折現率較高；其次，對未來收入的預測較低。

Presently, this subsidiary has lease balances of about $113 million and remaining goodwill of $17 million. Excluding this noncash expense, Q3 expenses decreased by $17 million from the prior quarter. The variance in operating expenses was driven by lower professional fees by $12 million in advisory expenses from corporate initiatives, primarily related to regulatory compliance and transformation efforts and an $8 million reversal of an accrual related to regulatory termination fees in BPPR.

目前，該子公司的租賃餘額約為 1.13 億美元，剩餘商譽為 1,700 萬美元。排除此項非現金費用，第三季費用較上一季減少 1,700 萬美元。營運費用差異的原因是專業費用降低，其中包括企業計畫諮詢費用 1,200 萬美元，主要與監管合規和轉型工作相關，以及與 BPPR 監管終止費相關的應計費用沖銷 800 萬美元。

During Q3, we incurred $4 million transformation-related expenses compared to $7 million last quarter. Our transformation effort is progressing as planned. But due to the stage of execution of various major projects, the timing of some of the expenses will be somewhat delayed. Also, the decision to use in-house resources to repurchase previously planned consulting fees into longer-term investment or capitalize all our initiatives has resulted in a lower-than-forecasted expense.

第三季度，我們發生了 400 萬美元的轉型相關費用，而上季為 700 萬美元。我們的轉型工作正在按計劃進行。但由於各重大項目的執行階段，部分費用的時間會有所延遲。此外，決定使用內部資源將先前計劃的諮詢費回購為長期投資或將我們所有的措施資本化，導致費用低於預期。

As a result, we now expect transformation expenses for 2023 to be approximately $30 million, down from our prior guidance of $50 million. We expect Q4 expenses to be approximately $475 million. Normalizing for the $23 million noncash goodwill impairment, total expenses for 2023 would be around $1.82 billion or $50 million better than our original guidance, driven by lower transformation expenses and cost control initiatives undertaken during the year.

因此，我們現在預計 2023 年的轉型費用約為 3000 萬美元，低於我們先前指導的 5,000 萬美元。我們預計第四季支出約為 4.75 億美元。將 2,300 萬美元的非現金商譽減損正常化後，由於轉型費用降低和年內採取的成本控制舉措，2023 年的總費用將比我們最初的指導高出約 18.2 億美元或 5,000 萬美元。

If the proposed FDIC special assessment is implemented as presently drafted, we estimate Popular would incur an additional expense of roughly $66 million. We will provide 2024 expense guidance, including transformation efforts in our January webcast once next year's budget is completed. Our expected tax rate -- effective tax rate for the quarter was 25.1%. The higher Q3 tax rate was attributable to certain tax benefits recorded in the second quarter offset by lower income before tax. For the full year 2023, we continue to expect the effective tax rate to be between 22% and 25%.

如果建議的 FDIC 特別評估按照目前起草的方式實施，我們估計Popular 將產生約 6,600 萬美元的額外費用。一旦明年的預算完成，我們將在 1 月的網路廣播中提供 2024 年的支出指導，包括轉型工作。我們預期的稅率－本季的有效稅率為 25.1%。第三季稅率較高是由於第二季記錄的某些稅收優惠被稅前收入下降所抵銷。對於2023年全年，我們繼續預計有效稅率在22%至25%之間。

Please turn to Slide 6. Net interest margin decreased by 7 basis points to 3.07% in Q3. On a taxable equivalent basis, NIM was 3.24%, a decrease of 5 basis points versus Q2. The decrease is driven by higher interest expense on deposits due to increased cost of public deposits and growth in high-cost deposit accounts at Popular Bank. This was partially offset by higher loan yields and balances across all major lending categories and higher yields in our cash balances and investments.

請參閱投影片 6。第三季淨利差下降 7 個基點至 3.07%。以應稅等值計算，淨利差為 3.24%，較第二季下降 5 個基點。造成這一下降的原因是公共存款成本增加以及大眾銀行高成本存款帳戶的增長導致存款利息支出增加。這被所有主要貸款類別的較高貸款收益率和餘額以及我們現金餘額和投資的較高收益率所部分抵消。

At the end of the third quarter, Puerto Rico public deposits were roughly $17.8 billion, a decrease of roughly $700 million compared to Q2. Decrease in Q3 was consistent with historical trends. However, public deposit balances have remained higher than we had anticipated. As such, by the end of 2023, we now expect public deposits to be in a range of $16 billion to $18 billion compared to our prior expectation of $14 billion to $16 billion.

第三季末，波多黎各公共存款約178億美元，較第二季減少約7億美元。第三季的下降與歷史趨勢一致。然而，公共存款餘額仍高於我們的預期。因此，到 2023 年底，我們現在預計公共存款將在 160 億美元至 180 億美元之間，而我們先前的預期為 140 億美元至 160 億美元。

Excluding Puerto Rico public deposits, customer deposit balances group were up by $46 million, primarily driven by increases in time and savings deposits at Popular Bank, offset somewhat by retail outflows at BPPR. Approximately $300 million of client deposit balances at BPPR were transferred to our broker-dealer during the quarter, searching for higher yields. Ending loan balances increased by $1 billion compared to Q2, driven by growth in almost all loan segments at BPPR and on commercial and construction loans at PB.

不包括波多黎各公共存款，客戶存款餘額增加了 4,600 萬美元，主要是由於大眾銀行的定期存款和儲蓄存款增加，但 BPPR 的零售資金外流在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。本季度，BPPR 大約 3 億美元的客戶存款餘額被轉移到我們的經紀交易商，以尋求更高的收益率。與第二季相比，期末貸款餘額增加了 10 億美元，這得益於 BPPR 幾乎所有貸款領域以及 PB 商業和建築貸款的成長。

Year-to-date, loan balances have increased by $2 billion versus $2.3 billion for the same period a year ago. We are encouraged by the demand for credit at BPPR and PB. We will continue to take advantage of prudent opportunities to extend credit and improve the use and yield of our existing liquidity.

今年迄今為止，貸款餘額增加了 20 億美元，而去年同期為 23 億美元。 BPPR 和 PB 的信貸需求令我們感到鼓舞。我們將繼續利用審慎的機會擴大信貸，提高現有流動性的使用率和收益率。

Our interest rate sensitivity is relatively neutral. We continue to expect the margin to resume an upward trajectory in Q4. The timing results from our forecasted loan and deposit growth and mix, investment portfolio strategy and the pace of repricing of public and incrementally retail and commercial deposits.

我們的利率敏感度相對中性。我們繼續預計第四季利潤率將恢復上升軌道。這一時機取決於我們預測的貸款和存款成長和組合、投資組合策略以及公共和增量零售和商業存款的重新定價步伐。

Please turn to Slide 7. Deposit betas in the current tightening cycle are now above the prior cycle. We have seen a total cumulative deposit beta of 34% to date but the rate of increase of deposit costs continues to slow down. In BPPR, total deposit costs increased by 24 basis points compared to an increase of 26 basis points in Q2, led by public deposits. Excluding the public deposit balances, total deposit costs were 55 basis points compared to 50 basis points the prior quarter for a cumulative beta of 7%.

請參閱投影片 7。目前緊縮週期中的存款貝他係數現在高於上一個週期。到目前為止，我們看到總累計存款貝塔值為 34%，但存款成本的成長率持續放緩。在 BPPR 中，總存款成本增加了 24 個基點，而第二季則增加了 26 個基點，其中公共存款的漲幅最大。不包括公共存款餘額，總存款成本為 55 個基點，而上一季為 50 個基點，累積貝塔值為 7%。

In the third quarter, the cost of public deposits increased by 47 basis points compared to our July estimate of 50 basis points. We expect the cost of public deposits to increase by approximately 10 basis points in Q4. The deposit pricing agreement with the Puerto Rico public sector is market linked with a lag. This source of funding results in an attractive spread under market rates. At Popular Bank, the deposit cost increased by 29 basis points compared to an increase of 54 basis points in Q2, led by retail deposits gathered primarily to our online channel.

第三季度，公共存款成本比我們 7 月預測的 50 個基點增加了 47 個基點。我們預計第四季公眾存款成本將上升約10個基點。與波多黎各公共部門的存款定價協議與市場掛鉤，存在滯後性。這種資金來源導致市場利率下具有吸引力的利差。在大眾銀行，存款成本增加了 29 個基點，而第二季度則增加了 54 個基點，其中零售存款主要集中在我們的線上管道。

Please turn to Slide 8. Our investment portfolio is almost entirely comprised of treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, which carry minimal credit risk. Including our cash position, this portfolio has an average duration of approximately 2.2 years. In Q3, the unrealized loss of the AFS portfolio increased by $231 million, driven by an increase of $274 million in the Agency MBS portfolio, offset in part by a reduction of $44 million in the U.S. Treasury portfolio.

請參閱投影片 8。我們的投資組合幾乎完全由國庫券和機構抵押貸款擔保證券組成，這些證券的信用風險很小。包括我們的現金頭寸，投資組合的平均期限約為 2.2 年。第三季度，AFS 投資組合的未實現損失增加了 2.31 億美元，因為機構 MBS 投資組合增加了 2.74 億美元，但美國國債投資組合減少了 4,400 萬美元，部分抵消了損失。

At the end of the third quarter, the balance of unrealized loss in AOCI of our HTM portfolio stood at $702 million, a reduction of $44 million from Q2. We expect this loss will be amortized back into capital throughout the remaining life of that portfolio at a rate of approximately 5% per quarter through 2026.

截至第三季末，我們的 HTM 投資組合 AOCI 未實現虧損餘額為 7.02 億美元，較第二季減少 4,400 萬美元。我們預計，到 2026 年，這一損失將在該投資組合的剩餘生命週期內以每季約 5% 的速度攤銷回資本。

Please turn to Slide 9. Our return on tangible equity was 9.4% in the quarter. We continue to target a sustainable 14% ROTCE by the end of 2025, driven primarily by higher net income. Regulatory capital levels remain strong. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio in Q3 of 16.8% decreased by 6 basis points from Q2. Tangible book value per share at quarter end was $50.20, an increase of $1.17 per share, mostly resulting from increased AOCI -- sorry, a decrease of $1.17 per share.

請參閱投影片 9。本季我們的有形資產報酬率為 9.4%。我們的目標是到 2025 年底將 ROTCE 實現可持續的 14%，這主要是由更高的淨利潤推動的。監理資本水準依然強勁。第三季我們的普通股一級資本比率為 16.8%，較第二季下降 6 個基點。季度末每股有形帳面價值為 50.20 美元，每股增加 1.17 美元，主要是由於 AOCI 增加——抱歉，每股減少 1.17 美元。

Given the continued uncertainty on the outlook for rates, the economy and the proposed regulatory response to advance in the banking sector, we will not engage in share repurchase during 2023. We do plan, however, to consider a dividend increase this year. We will review future capital actions as market conditions evolve. Our long-term outlook on capital return has not changed, anchored on our strong regulatory capital ratios. Over time, we expect our regulatory capital ratios to gravitate towards the levels of our mainland peers plus a buffer.

鑑於利率、經濟前景以及針對銀行業發展提出的監管對策的持續不確定性，我們不會在 2023 年進行股票回購。不過，我們確實計劃考慮今年增加股息。我們將隨著市場狀況的變化來審查未來的資本行動。我們對資本回報的長期前景沒有改變，這是基於我們嚴格的監管資本比率。隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們的監管資本比率將趨向於內地同業的水平並帶有緩衝。

With that, I turn the call over to Lidio.

說完，我把電話轉給了利迪奧。

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning. Overall, Popular continue to exhibit stable credit quality trends with low levels of net charge-offs and decreasing nonperforming loans. Consumer portfolio, however, reflected increased delinquencies and net charge-offs, primarily due to the expected credit normalization. We continue to closely monitor changes in the macroeconomic environment and on borrowing performance even higher interest rates and inflationary pressures. We believe that the improvements over recent years in risk management practices and the risk profile of the corporation's loan portfolio positions Popular to continue to operate successfully under the current environment.

謝謝你，卡洛斯，早安。總體而言，大眾銀行持續表現出穩定的信貸品質趨勢，淨沖銷水平較低，不良貸款也在減少。然而，消費者投資組合反映出拖欠和淨沖銷增加，這主要是由於預期的信貸正常化。我們繼續密切關注宏觀經濟環境的變化以及借貸表現、利率上升和通膨壓力。我們相信，近年來風險管理實踐和公司貸款組合頭寸風險狀況的改善將在當前環境下繼續成功運作。

Before discussing the credit metrics for the quarter, I would like to address the risk profile of our office commercial real estate exposure and consumer portfolios. We have included additional information for these segments in the appendix to today's presentation. Popular consolidated office CRE exposures limited representing only 1.9% or $634 million of our total loan portfolio. It is mainly comprised of low to mid-rise properties located in suburban areas and is well diversified across tenant type with an average loan size of $2.1 million. The portfolio has a favorable credit risk profile with low levels of NPLs and classified loans.

在討論本季的信貸指標之前，我想先討論一下我們的辦公商業房地產曝險和消費者投資組合的風險狀況。我們在今天的簡報的附錄中提供了這些部分的更多資訊。受歡迎的綜合辦公室 CRE 風險敞口有限，僅占我們貸款組合總額的 1.9%，即 6.34 億美元。它主要由位於郊區的中低層物業組成，租戶類型多元化，平均貸款規模為 210 萬美元。此投資組合具有良好的信用風險狀況，不良貸款和分類貸款水準較低。

In terms of our consumer portfolios, these have begun to normalize as expected, reflecting increased delinquencies and net charge-offs. The credit card, auto loan and lease portfolios continue to exhibit delinquencies and net charge-offs that are below pre-dynamic levels, although gradually increasing. In the case of unsecured personal loans, however, the year-to-date net charge-off ratio is 3.4%, which is above the 2.5% average for the 2011-2019 period. We're closely monitoring the performance of our consumer portfolio and have made changes to our underwriting criteria to decrease exposure to higher-risk segments.

就我們的消費者投資組合而言，這些已開始如預期般正常化，反映出拖欠和淨沖銷的增加。信用卡、汽車貸款和租賃組合的拖欠和淨沖銷仍低於動態前的水平，儘管逐漸增加。然而，就無擔保個人貸款而言，年初至今的淨沖銷率為 3.4%，高於 2011-2019 年期間 2.5% 的平均值。我們正在密切監控消費者投資組合的表現，並對我們的承保標準進行了更改，以減少對高風險細分市場的曝險。

Turning to Slide #10. Nonperforming assets and nonperforming loans continued to decrease, driven by the commercial and mortgage portfolios. The decrease in the Puerto Rico commercial portfolio was aided by the payoff of an $11 million relationship. NPL inflows also decreased, driven by lower commercial inflows in Puerto Rico and lower commercial inflows in the U.S., offset in part by higher mortgage inflows in Puerto Rico. At the end of the quarter, the ratio of NPLs to total loans held in portfolio decreased to 1.1% from 1.2% in the previous quarter.

轉向投影片 #10。在商業和抵押貸款組合的推動下，不良資產和不良貸款繼續減少。波多黎各商業投資組合的減少得益於 1,100 萬美元關係的回報。由於波多黎各商業流入減少和美國商業流入減少，不良貸款流入也有所下降，但波多黎各抵押貸款流入增加部分抵消了這種影響。截至季末，不良貸款佔組合貸款總額的比率由上季的1.2%下降至1.1%。

Turning to Slide #11. Net charge-offs increased from the prior quarter to $33 million or annualized 39 basis points of average loans held in portfolio. The increase was driven by higher consumer net charge-off in Puerto Rico, mainly in the auto and personal loans portfolio. This increase was in part offset by $11 million recovery from a commercial loan payoff.

轉向投影片 #11。淨沖銷較上一季增加至 3,300 萬美元，投資組合中持有的平均貸款年化增加 39 個基點。這一增長是由於波多黎各消費者淨沖銷增加所致，主要是汽車和個人貸款組合。這一增長部分被商業貸款還款中收回的 1,100 萬美元所抵消。

Please turn to Slide #12. The allowance for credit losses increased by $11 million to $711 million driven by reserve build up in the Puerto Rico auto and personal loans portfolio, changes in macroeconomic scenarios and loan growth. In the U.S., allowance for credit losses decreased by $18 million due to the implementation of a more granular model for the U.S. commercial real estate portfolio. The provision for credit losses was $44 million compared to $36 million in the prior quarter. The corporation ratios of allowance for credit losses to total loans remained flat at 2.1%, while the ratio of ACL to NPL stood at 197%, up 15 percentage points from the previous quarter.

請翻到投影片 #12。由於波多黎各汽車和個人貸款組合儲備金的增加、宏觀經濟狀況的變化和貸款成長，信貸損失準備金增加了 1,100 萬美元，達到 7.11 億美元。在美國，由於美國商業房地產投資組合實施了更精細的模型，信貸損失準備金減少了 1,800 萬美元。信貸損失準備金為 4,400 萬美元，而上一季為 3,600 萬美元。法人信用損失準備金佔貸款總額的比率維持在2.1%，持平，不良貸款與不良貸款的比率為197%，較上季上升15個百分點。

To summarize, our loan portfolio continues to exhibit strong credit quality trends in the third quarter with low net charge-offs and decreasing nonperforming loans. Consumer portfolios, however, reflected increased delinquencies and net charge-offs due to credit normalization. We remain attentive to the evolving environment but remain encouraged by the performance of our loan book.

總而言之，我們的貸款組合在第三季持續展現強勁的信貸品質趨勢，淨沖銷率較低，不良貸款也有所減少。然而，消費者投資組合反映出由於信貸正常化導致的拖欠和淨沖銷增加。我們仍然關注不斷變化的環境，但我們的貸款帳簿表現仍然令人鼓舞。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Ignacio for his concluding remarks. Thank you.

至此，我想將電話轉給伊格納西奧，讓他作總結發言。謝謝。

Thank you, Lidio and Carlos, for your updates. Our results for the quarter and year-to-date have been strong, driven by solid earnings, robust loan growth, stable credit quality and continued customer growth. It is an honor to serve over 2 million customers in Puerto Rico, providing a wide variety of products, services and channels, and we value immensely the trust that take place in us.

謝謝 Lidio 和 Carlos 的最新消息。在穩健的獲利、強勁的貸款成長、穩定的信貸品質和持續的客戶成長的推動下，我們本季和今年迄今的業績表現強勁。我們很榮幸為波多黎各超過 200 萬客戶提供服務，提供各種各樣的產品、服務和管道，我們非常重視您對我們的信任。

Earlier this month, we celebrated Popular's 130th anniversary. Since 1893, we have successfully adapted and led throughout changing conditions, and we are proud of our history and the legacy that has made Popular what it is today, a strong, vibrant organization with deep rooted values. I have the privilege of visiting many of our colleagues during the anniversary and was inspired by their passion and dedication. We are encouraged with the progress of our transformation that position us well for the future.

本月早些時候，我們慶祝了《Popular》成立 130 週年。自1893 年以來，我們成功地適應並領導了不斷變化的環境，我們對我們的歷史和遺產感到自豪，正是這些歷史和遺產使Popular成為今天的樣子，成為一個強大、充滿活力、具有根深蒂固價值觀的組織。我有幸在周年紀念日期間拜訪了我們的許多同事，並受到他們的熱情和奉獻精神的啟發。我們對轉型的進展感到鼓舞，這為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

We are optimistic about the opportunities that lie ahead. Economic trends in Puerto Rico continue to be positive and a considerable amount of recovery funds yet to be disbursed are expected to support increased economic activity for the coming years. Our diversified business model, robust levels of capital and most importantly, the talent and dedication of our people position us well to support and meet the evolving needs of our growing customer base.

我們對未來的機會感到樂觀。波多黎各的經濟趨勢持續向好，大量尚未支付的復甦資金預計將支持未來幾年經濟活動的成長。我們多元化的業務模式、穩健的資本水平以及最重要的是我們員工的才華和奉獻精神使我們能夠很好地支持和滿足不斷增長的客戶群不斷變化的需求。

We're now ready to answer your questions.

我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Timur Braziler of Wells Fargo Securities.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Timur Braziler。

How much -- I'm wondering how much of the delayed transformation expenses occur in '24. And I guess the total amount of transformation costs, is that now lower? Or is that expense just pushed out?

我想知道有多少延遲轉型費用發生在 24 年。我猜轉型成本的總金額現在是不是更低了？還是這筆費用只是被延後了？

Yes. I mean some of the expenses have been recharacterized, Timur. So for example, as we mentioned, some expenses that we expected to be external consultants were brought in-house. And some of those may end up being capitalized as part of the project. Others have been delayed because the projects have taken a bit longer to get going or whatever the case may be. So it will be a combination of some pushed into '24 and others that will not happen anymore.

是的。我的意思是，一些費用已經被重新描述，帖木兒。例如，正如我們所提到的，我們預期外部顧問的一些費用被納入內部。其中一些最終可能會作為專案的一部分被資本化。其他項目則被推遲，因為項目需要更長的時間才能啟動或無論什麼情況。因此，這將是一些被推入 24 年的組合，而另一些則不會再發生。

We will -- that -- what that combination might be, will be clear when we complete our project plan for '24, and we complete our budget for '24, and we will provide the guidance on expenses in January, as we normally do, including both overall expenses and transformation expenses.

當我們完成 24 年的專案計劃和 24 年的預算時，我們將清楚這種組合可能是什麼，我們將像往常一樣在一月份提供費用指導，包括總體費用和轉型費用。

Okay. And then I guess, looking at funding costs. To what extent are interest rates now done pressuring deposits and the pressure now comes from mix shift?

好的。然後我想，看看融資成本。現在利率在多大程度上對存款施加了壓力，而現在的壓力來自於混合轉變？

Well, I mean, to the extent that you think the Fed is done, we will continue to have an effect because of the 1 quarter lag of the effect of public sector deposit costs in Puerto Rico. But most of the rest will probably be a result of shift as opposed to base rates changing. With the sole exception of the Puerto Rico public sector, again, will have the lag of the third quarter increases into the fourth quarter.

嗯，我的意思是，就你認為聯準會已經完成的程度而言，我們將繼續發揮作用，因為波多黎各公共部門存款成本的影響存在一季度的滯後。但其餘大部分可能是變動的結果，而不是基本利率變動的結果。除波多黎各公共部門外，第三季的成長同樣會落後於第四季。

Okay. But those balances -- just looking at period end, over average and then seasonal expected outflows in the fourth quarter those balances of public fund deposits should be materially lower on an average standpoint in 4Q. Is that correct?

好的。但這些餘額——僅考慮期末、平均水平以及第四季度的季節性預期流出，從第四季度的平均角度來看，公共基金存款餘額應該會大幅降低。那是對的嗎？

Well, it depends. We've updated our range for year-end as you heard from [14 to 16] to [16 to 18], if the balances end up at the high end of that range, then the average for the fourth quarter will be not very different. They will be a bit lower than the average for the third quarter but not too much difference. So it will depend on where we end up in Q4.

這得看情況。我們已經更新了年底的範圍，正如您所聽到的，從 [14 到 16] 到 [16 到 18]，如果餘額最終達到該範圍的高端，那麼第四季度的平均值將不會非常高不同的。它們將略低於第三季的平均水平，但差異不會太大。因此，這將取決於我們在第四季度的最終結果。

Great. And then just last for me on the credit normalization, the unsecured PR consumer book. The comment about limiting exposure to higher-risk segments. Can you just maybe talk through what's been the greatest source of stress in that portfolio? And which segment you're referring to in that comment?

偉大的。最後我要講的是信用正常化，也就是無擔保的公關消費者書籍。關於限制高風險領域敞口的評論。您能否談談該投資組合中最大的壓力來源是什麼？您在該評論中指的是哪一段？

I would say, lower FICOs and the auto portfolio of used card lower FICO segments.

我想說的是，較低的 FICO 和二手卡的汽車投資組合較低的 FICO 細分市場。

Our next question comes from Brett Rabatin of Hovde Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Hovde Group 的 Brett Rabatin。

I wanted to start on the -- back on the expenses in the third quarter and see if -- and get a little more color, if I could, on, I didn't quite understand the noise around lower regulatory costs. Most are having higher. Can you maybe talk a little bit more about the items that reduced expenses in 3Q and then how that might change you think in the fourth quarter, relative to the $475 million guidance?

我想從第三季的支出開始，看看是否能獲得更多的色彩，如果可以的話，我不太理解圍繞著降低監管成本的噪音。大多數人都有更高的。您能否多談談第三季減少開支的項目，以及相對於 4.75 億美元的指導，這可能會如何改變您對第四季的看法？

Yes. I mean it's mostly professional fees, Brett. Now these are professional fees that we hired consultants to assist us in a whole bunch of different things. And the reduction in the quarter was mostly related to some assistance we get on regulatory matters or our transformation and things of that sort. But this was normally -- this number goes up and down. It's just that the professional fees number tends to be a lot more stable as opposed to coming down. So you noticed the change.

是的。我的意思是這主要是專業費用，布雷特。現在，這些是我們聘請顧問來協助我們處理各種不同事情的專業費用。本季的減少主要與我們在監管事務或轉型等方面獲得的一些援助有關。但這是正常的——這個數字會上下波動。只是專業費用數字往往比較穩定，而不是下降。所以你注意到了這個變化。

But in any given quarter, the expense in those professional fees can gravitate from advice on regulation, to advice on transformation, to advice on something else. So it's just a bit more notable this quarter but it is mostly professional fees. The other thing is we do have a reversal of an accrual for regulatory expenses that we had accrued -- over accrued in that, and that's an $8 million this quarter, which obviously also helped the expense number.

但在任何特定季度，這些專業費用的支出可能會從監管建議轉向轉型建議或其他建議。因此，本季比較引人注目，但主要是專業費用。另一件事是，我們確實扭轉了我們應計的監管費用——超額應計費用，本季度為 800 萬美元，這顯然也有助於減少費用。

I think it's also fair to say that we are challenging our teams to make sure to (inaudible) as much as possible in-house versus consulting or using our consultants more intelligently. So it's not that regulatory costs are necessarily going down but the professional fees and consulting fees are going down.

我認為公平地說，我們正在挑戰我們的團隊，以確保（聽不清楚）盡可能在內部進行，而不是更明智地進行諮詢或使用我們的顧問。因此，並不是說監理成本一定會下降，而是專業費用和諮詢費會下降。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the margin, as we think about '24, assuming the Fed has stopped, would seem like the margin would start moving higher with the government deposits not repricing every lag 3 months. Any thoughts on your willingness or ability to invest maybe some of the cash flow in the securities portfolio into higher rates and just how you see the NII dollars playing out over the coming year?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，就邊際而言，正如我們對 24 年的看法，假設聯準會停止行動，隨著政府存款不會每隔 3 個月重新定價一次，邊際似乎會開始走高。您是否願意或有能力將證券投資組合中的部分現金流投資於更高的利率，以及您如何看待 NII 美元在未來一年的表現？

Yes. The -- probably the colloquial answer to your question is we have -- we hope we will have to have the decision on the investor portfolio extension because we have enough loan demand that we can put the maturities into loans. That will be our preferred outcome that are obviously the best use of our liquidity in terms of margin. You're correct. I mean to the extent that Fed is done and the pressure on the funding side should be less. We are still originating loans at a higher rate level.

是的。對您的問題的通俗回答可能是我們希望我們必須就投資者投資組合延期做出決定，因為我們有足夠的貸款需求，我們可以將到期日轉入貸款。這將是我們首選的結果，這顯然是在保證金方面對我們流動性的最佳利用。你是對的。我的意思是，只要聯準會完成了任務，資金面的壓力應該會更小。我們仍在以較高的利率水準發放貸款。

So that should be helpful to margin. And the same is true of the investment portfolio. Whatever is coming due tends to be old treasuries or older investments that were at lower rates, so this -- so that should be helpful as well. So the -- those are the variables there. And the math will be whatever the math is.

所以這應該有助於保證金。投資組合也是如此。無論到期的是什麼，往往都是舊國債或利率較低的舊投資，所以這應該也會有所幫助。這些就是那裡的變數。數學將是無論數學是什麼。

Okay. And then just lastly for me, the 14% ROTCE target by 2025. It seems like it's possible but that might be shaped a little bit earlier if things line up relative to rates and loan growth. Any thoughts on timing of that target?

好的。最後，對我來說，到 2025 年，ROTCE 目標將達到 14%。這似乎是可能的，但如果情況與利率和貸款成長相關，這一目標可能會提前形成。關於該目標的時間安排有什麼想法嗎？

Well, the timing, we were very specific in our timing. It was not the end of 2025 and this target is not an easy target. So we're working very hard to make sure we get there. God bless you and hope you're right that we can get there earlier. But at this point in time, for us, it looks like the end of 2025.

嗯，時間安排，我們的時間安排非常具體。現在還不到2025年底，這個目標並不是一個容易實現的目標。因此，我們正在非常努力地確保我們能夠實現這一目標。上帝保佑你，希望你是對的，我們可以早點到達那裡。但此時此刻，對我們來說，看起來已經是 2025 年底了。

Our next question comes from Alex Twerdahl of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Alex Twerdahl。

Just to expand upon that last question on the ROTCE target. When you guys initially set that out, I think it was back in January, and one could have assumed or maybe you guys assumed that buybacks to be part of the story this year, which they're not. I'm just curious when you say it's unchanged, is it just basically saying that you're reiterating what you said back in -- back in January? Or is there an update to the assumptions on capital levels incorporated into the reiterated guidance as well?

只是為了擴展關於 ROTCE 目標的最後一個問題。當你們最初提出這一點時，我認為那是在一月份，人們可能假設或你們可能假設回購是今年故事的一部分，但事實並非如此。我只是很好奇，當你說它沒有改變時，這基本上是說你在重申你在一月份所說的話嗎？或者，重申的指導方針中的資本水準假設是否也有更新？

It's unchanged.

它沒有改變。

Okay. So you're not making any changes to your thought around capital levels. You're just from when you initially set the target out in January?

好的。因此，您不會對資本水準的想法做出任何改變。您剛從一月最初設定目標開始嗎？

There obviously are assumptions in that number, and we -- the assumptions were not made public and we're not making them public now.

顯然，這個數字中有一些假設，而我們——這些假設沒有公開，我們現在也不會公開它們。

But they're unchanged.

但它們沒有改變。

They're unchanged, yes.

它們沒有改變，是的。

I want to ask the government deposit question slightly different -- differently. Obviously, we're very focused on the impact to your guys' balance sheet. But looking at them a different way, it seems like there's almost $18 billion of government deposits now that is basically cash that the Puerto Rico government has to eventually put to work into the economy, into various programs, into things that should continue to help the Puerto Rico picture. Is that accurate thinking? .

我想問的政府存款問題略有不同——不同。顯然，我們非常關注對你們資產負債表的影響。但從不同的角度來看，現在似乎有近180 億美元的政府存款，基本上都是現金，波多黎各政府最終必須將其投入經濟中，投入到各種計劃中，投入到那些應該繼續幫助經濟發展的事情中。波多黎各圖片。這樣的想法準確嗎？ 。

It is. But keep in mind that it's a very diverse group of depositors. It's -- I think we estimate over 140 different deposit clients that have clients ranging from the Puerto Rico Treasury Department to small municipalities. Most of the agencies have much more money available now that they did. Now some of this money is specifically earmarked for program so they can't use it as they want. But definitely, things are happening, not only the Puerto Rico central government but the municipalities are deleveraging, which not only means that they have money to spend, which means in the future, in the economy as they have more room to borrow and to do other capital projects if they are good projects.

這是。但請記住，這是一個非常多元化的儲戶群體。我認為我們估計有 140 多個不同的存款客戶，他們的客戶從波多黎各財政部到小城市。大多數機構現在擁有更多可用的資金。現在，其中一些資金專門用於項目，因此他們無法隨心所欲地使用它。但可以肯定的是，事情正在發生，不僅是波多黎各中央政府，而且各市政府都在去槓桿化，這不僅意味著他們有錢可以花，這意味著在未來的經濟中，他們有更多的借貸空間和做事的空間其他資本項目（如果是好項目）。

So yes, that should be a similar effect. But again, it's 140 agencies with many different programs, some that are specifically earmarked. So we definitely -- it's obviously good for the economy. It's good for the economy that the government across the board is deleveraging, which is -- I think is important.

所以是的，這應該是類似的效果。但同樣，140 個機構擁有許多不同的項目，其中一些是專門指定的。所以我們肯定——這顯然對經濟有利。政府全面去槓桿化對經濟有利，我認為這很重要。

Yes. When you talk about the earmarks, are there any like big ones out there that you kind of have line of sight on hitting in the next couple of months or years, I guess, years is too far. But next couple of quarters that would make that number change dramatically one way or another?

是的。當你談論專案撥款時，是否有類似的大項目，你可以在接下來的幾個月或幾年內實現，我想，幾年太遠了。但接下來的幾個季度，這個數字會以某種方式發生巨大變化嗎？

No. But as we said in the prepared remarks, we have seen the pace of disbursement of federal funds increase during the year. So at this point in the year through -- I think through August (inaudible) I saw about $2.8 billion had been dispersed. That compares to $1.7 billion last year. So the pace is picking up.

不會。但正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們看到今年聯邦資金的支付速度有所加快。因此，在今年的這個時候——我認為整個 8 月（聽不清楚）我看到大約 28 億美元已經被分散。相比之下，去年為 17 億美元。因此，步伐正在加快。

We do see a lot of the infrastructure projects will continue to pick up pace. There's a lot of products in the energy sector, a lot on the water sectors, a lot of projects -- there is a lot of highway projects going on. A lot of that is still in the planning, in the permitting, in the planning, that process. We do expect one area will pick up next year will be the CDBG-DR funds for housing. There's a number of projects that have been awarded and those are projects where private developers build a series of houses, and the government will buy those houses from the developer and then later give it to people with vouchers for up like $230,000.

我們確實看到許多基礎設施項目將繼續加快步伐。能源領域有很多產品，水務領域有很多產品，還有很多項目——還有很多高速公路項目正在進行中。其中許多仍處於規劃、許可、規劃過程中。我們確實預計明年 CDBG-DR 住房基金將會回升。有許多項目已經獲得批准，這些項目是私人開發商建造一系列房屋的項目，政府將從開發商那裡購買這些房屋，然後以高達 23 萬美元的價格將其交給持有優惠券的人。

But there's a number of those projects that has been awarded this year. We're involved in 11 of those. So we should see that activity pick up next year. Again, it takes permitting whatever but those projects have not been awarded. So I think you're going to continue to see the basic infrastructure, energy, highway, water. And I think you're going to begin to see housing pickup next year.

但今年有很多這樣的項目已經獲獎。我們參與了其中 11 個。因此，我們應該會看到明年的活動增加。同樣，這需要任何許可，但這些項目尚未獲得批准。所以我認為你會繼續看到基本的基礎設施、能源、高速公路、水。我認為明年住房市場將開始回升。

Keep in mind, Alex, that probably more than half of this balance is the actual operating accounts of those 100 plus or almost 200 clients. So there's always going to be a given balance there that a normal course of business will never go away. So there is that, which is what we'll always see there there's the amounts that are earmarked to different projects. There are a whole bunch of different things in different accounts for different purposes. So it is positive that the government has more cash on hand. But it will probably be understatement to think it's anywhere close to $18 billion. It's a fraction of that.

請記住，Alex，該餘額的一半以上可能是這 100 多個或近 200 個客戶的實際營運帳戶。因此，總是會存在一定的平衡，正常的業務過程永遠不會消失。因此，我們總是會看到指定用於不同項目的金額。不同的帳戶中有很多不同的東西，用於不同的目的。因此，政府手頭上有更多現金是積極的。但如果認為其價值接近 180 億美元，可能還有些輕描淡寫。這只是其中的一小部分。

Okay. That's great. And then just expanding on the 11 projects and some of the other things that Ignacio, you're just mentioning, does that result in a larger level of construction disbursements for Popular next year that could help to drive loan ounces higher?

好的。那太棒了。然後，擴大 11 個項目以及伊格納西奧（Ignacio）您剛剛提到的其他一些項目，這是否會導致明年大眾項目的建設支出水平更高，從而有助於推高貸款盎司？

Yes. definitely, I think there should be the residential construction, which has been kind of limited that should -- there should be a pickup on that from those projects. Again, it begins -- it depends when actually great ground and they start disbursement. Again, those products unfortunately, for -- will not last for long on our balance sheet because the way it happens is the developer builds the homes and the government takes them out. So instead of the takeout coming from individual buyers, the government takes them out. But yes, in the short run, there should be an increase, especially in the residential construction.

是的。當然，我認為應該有住宅建設，雖然住宅建設一直受到限制，但這些項目應該會回升。再次，它開始了——這取決於什麼時候真正有足夠的基礎並且他們開始付款。同樣，不幸的是，這些產品不會在我們的資產負債表上持續很長時間，因為它的發生方式是開發商建造房屋，政府將其拆除。因此，不是來自個人買家的外賣，而是政府將他們帶走。但是，是的，從短期來看，應該會有所增長，特別是在住宅建設方面。

Again, apart from the government P.R. We're seeing low-income tax credits also stimulating certain developments for elderly, especially in Puerto Rico and for [all local] income housing. So it's not only P.R. There's a number of projects that are gaining momentum. And I think we should see some of that next year.

同樣，除了政府的公關之外，我們還看到低收入稅收抵免也刺激了老年人的某些發展，特別是在波多黎各和[所有當地]收入住房。因此，不僅是公關，還有許多項目正在蓬勃發展。我認為明年我們應該會看到一些這樣的情況。

Great. And then is it fair to assume that mortgage that's been growing for a couple of quarters, is that expected to continue? Just given that obviously, where rates are?

偉大的。那麼，假設抵押貸款已經連續幾季成長，預計這種情況會持續下去，是否公平？顯然，利率在哪裡？

Yes. Well, that's a question I ask, obviously. We've seen some pickup in the purchase activity but you're right. I mean I think we've got to expect that the higher interest rates will have some impact on that. I mean that's just basic logic. So a lot of the activity as we said in the prepared remarks, is purchase activity. So that's going to have to be impacted.

是的。嗯，這顯然是我問的問題。我們看到購買活動有所回升，但你是對的。我的意思是，我認為我們必須預期更高的利率會對此產生一些影響。我的意思是這只是基本邏輯。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，許多活動都是購買活動。所以這肯定會受到影響。

And then final question on loan growth. Are you guys willing to disclose how much of the highway loan you guys will take down?

然後是關於貸款成長的最後一個問題。你們願意透露你們將承擔多少高速公路貸款嗎？

Yes, I think we are good. It's been saying out that -- we are -- I can tell you this, the highway deal is a very important deal to look at from various perspectives. One, I think it shows a lot of confidence in Puerto Rico in the sense that you're talking about a 40-year concession. And you had a -- this is the largest project that Abertis, the Spanish company has done in the last 15 years, and the second largest project they've done in the history of the company.

是的，我認為我們很好。人們一直在說——我們是——我可以告訴你，高速公路協議是一項非常重要的協議，需要從各個角度來看。第一，我認為這顯示了對波多黎各的極大信心，因為你正在談論 40 年的讓步。這是西班牙公司 Abertis 在過去 15 年中完成的最大項目，也是該公司歷史上完成的第二大項目。

The syndicated banks that came in was a syndicate international banks, including major Japanese banks will have invested in Puerto Rico projects, I think, in a while. We took the -- we shared the top lead bank role with one of those large Japanese banks. And we will be disbursing -- closing approximately $240 million and there's another commitment for $60 million going forward for capital improvement and working capital in the future. So our total commitment is around $300 million but at closing, we'll be discussing $240 million.

我認為，進來的銀團銀行是國際銀團，包括主要的日本銀行，不久後將投資波多黎各專案。我們與日本大型銀行之一共同擔任最高牽頭銀行的角色。我們將支付約 2.4 億美元，並承諾未來將提供 6,000 萬美元用於資本改善和營運資金。因此，我們的總承諾約為 3 億美元，但在交易結束時，我們將討論 2.4 億美元。

Our next question comes from Brody Preston of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

I wanted to ask just a follow-up on the government deposits. Did I hear you right, Carlos, do you say you expect those -- the cost of those to increase by 10 basis points in the fourth quarter?

我想問一下政府存款的後續狀況。我沒聽錯吧，卡洛斯，你是說你預計第四季這些成本會增加 10 個基點嗎？

You heard me right. That's our estimate, yes.

你沒聽錯。這是我們的估計，是的。

Okay. Great. And so what is the extra $2 billion of balances sticking around do in terms of NII enhancements relative to -- if that -- if the $2 billion was not -- if the additional $2 billion is not going to be sticking around? Like what's the extra NII dollars you get from that?

好的。偉大的。那麼，就 NII 增強而言，額外的 20 億美元餘額有何作用——如果是這樣的話——如果 20 億美元不是——如果額外的 20 億美元不會繼續存在的話？例如您從中獲得的額外 NII 美元是多少？

Well, we will disclose that formula, Brody, you got to have to go with your estimate of what the margin on that business is, I want to buy like $2 billion because we -- as you know, we never disclose a specific (inaudible) of the margin in that business. But it should be -- if in fact, the balances end up at the high end of our updated range it should contribute to NII, yes.

好吧，我們會披露這個公式，布羅迪，你必須按照你對該業務利潤率的估計，我想購買20 億美元左右，因為我們——如你所知，我們從不披露具體的（聽不清） ) 該業務的利潤。但它應該是——如果事實上，餘額最終達到我們更新範圍的高端，它應該對 NII 做出貢獻，是的。

All right. You're too quick. I was trying to catch on your feet. I did notice that the commercial beta ticked down on the chart that you disclosed, and it looks like it was driven by the U.S. business with that beta taking down from 45% cycle to date to 36% cycle to date as of 3Q. And I wanted to ask if there was something specific that drove that like a higher balance kind of account leaving that was maybe costly, just looking for some color there?

好的。你太快了。我正試圖抓住你的腳。我確實注意到，商業貝塔值在您披露的圖表上有所下降，看起來它是由美國業務推動的，截至第三季度，貝塔值從迄今為止的 4​​5% 週期下降到迄今為止的 36%。我想問是否有一些特定的因素推動了這種情況，例如更高的餘額類型的帳戶留下的成本可能很高，只是在那裡尋找一些顏色？

I mean there was some balanced distortion of an account that -- larger high-cost account that left but that wasn't in this particular quarter. This quarter, what you just had -- you just saw costs being relatively flat and then therefore, the kind of the last bump in rates that we saw was not kind of pass-through, so you got a little inching down and cumulative beta due to that.

我的意思是，帳戶存在一些平衡扭曲——較大的高成本帳戶離開，但不是在這個特定季度。這個季度，你剛剛看到的成本相對持平，因此，我們看到的最後一次利率上漲並不是一種傳遞，所以你得到了一點點下降，累積貝塔值到期了對此。

So do you think that the commercial beta -- do you think that it can continue to kind of level off? Or do you think that, that can -- whatever happens with rates going forward, do you think you've kind of peaks on the rate offering there and that beta can continue to add lower?

那麼您認為商業測試版會繼續趨於平穩嗎？或者你認為，無論未來利率發生什麼，你是否認為利率已經達到高峰並且貝塔值可以繼續降低？

Yes. I mean I think what we call is more of a stabilization. I think that intense pressure that was in deposit costs, especially following kind of the many banking crisis that we saw at the beginning of the year, some of those pressures have leveled off and the fact that the rate of increase in Fed funds rates again has slowed down. So I think all of these things help reduce the pressure on that and specifically on the commercial. The area where it continues to be a bit more sensitive is kind of like the higher cost retail deposits. There's still a fair amount of competition both in our branches and our national online gathering platform.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們所說的更多的是穩定。我認為，存款成本方面的巨大壓力，特別是在我們年初看到的許多銀行業危機之後，其中一些壓力已經趨於平穩，而且聯邦基金利率的增長率再次下降了。慢下來。所以我認為所有這些事情都有助於減輕壓力，特別是商業壓力。它仍然更加敏感的領域有點像成本較高的零售存款。我們的分支機構和全國線上聚會平台仍然存在相當多的競爭。

Got it. Okay. I also wanted to ask on the nonowner-occupied CRE growth that you had this quarter. Was that a result of prior commitments kind of funding up? Or was that kind of new originations? And if so, can you kind of speak to the geographic location of it? Was it on the island? Was it on the mainland? I just wanted some more color there.

知道了。好的。我還想詢問本季非業主自用商業房地產的成長情況。這是之前承諾資金增加的結果嗎？或者說這是一種新的起源？如果是這樣，您能談談它的地理位置嗎？是在島上嗎？是在大陸嗎？我只是想要更多的顏色。

I would say it's a combination of both. I mean, we had some growth in terms of our construction portfolio in New York. And we also have growth, (inaudible) growth both in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Puerto Rico, more in the retail space and the U.S., more in the shelter, health care sectors.

我想說這是兩者的結合。我的意思是，我們在紐約的建築投資組合取得了一些成長。我們在波多黎各和美國波多黎各也有成長，（聽不清楚）成長，更多的是零售領域和美國，更多的是住房和醫療保健領域。

Got it. Okay. And then just my last one. So I guess I understand that you guys are being cautious around uses of capital. But when I step back and kind of do the math on securities restructures, you guys, in particular, it's pretty attractive. And it's a pretty -- you kind of quickly accrete CET1 on the back end of it. And so within a couple of years, you're kind of back to an extremely robust CET1 ratio. But you've reduced earnings meaningfully, which could be beneficial to the stock price. How do you kind of think about securities restructuring and using capital at this point?

知道了。好的。然後就是我的最後一個。所以我想我理解你們對資本的使用持謹慎態度。但當我退後一步，對證券重組進行數學計算時，尤其是你們，這非常有吸引力。這是一個很好的——你可以在它的後端快速累積 CET1。因此，幾年之內，您就會恢復到極其強勁的 CET1 比率。但你已經大幅減少了收益，這可能有利於股價。您目前對證券重組和資金運用有何看法？

We are aware. We've done the numbers. We -- it's something that we review periodically one of the non-immaterial considerations when we're thinking of these things is the fact that if nothing changes and we do nothing we get roughly 1/3 of AOCI by the end of next year. So that starts -- when you start comparing, not taking execution risk, not taking market rate, not taking a number of other things, and having that outcome, it gets difficult to sometimes do alternative things. But we have looked at it. We continue to look at it. We have not decided that it makes sense for us for the moment.

我們知道。我們已經做好數字了。當我們考慮這些事情時，我們會定期審查一個非無形的考慮因素，即如果沒有任何改變並且我們什麼也不做，到明年年底我們將獲得大約 1/3 的 AOCI。所以這就開始了——當你開始比較，不承擔執行風險，不採取市場利率，不採取其他一些事情，並得到這樣的結果時，有時很難做其他事情。但我們已經研究過了。我們繼續關注。我們暫時還沒有決定這對我們是否有意義。

Our next question comes from Kelly Motta of KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Kelly Motta。

Carlos, to your last point, I want to -- I want to make sure I got that right. So 1/3 of AOCI comes back by the end of next year, if no change in rates?

卡洛斯，對於你的最後一點，我想——我想確保我做對了。那麼，如果利率沒有變動的話，到明年年底 AOCI 的 1/3 會回來嗎？

Yes. That's what -- that's our best estimate, yes. That number is consistent with what we've been discussing for the last quarter or so when we did the calculation. It's roughly -- probably what I think it's going to be.

是的。是的，這就是我們的最佳估計。這個數字與我們在上個季度左右進行計算時所討論的數字一致。大概就是我認為的那樣。

Pretty fast tangible book value accretion. Can you remind us what the cash flows are of the securities portfolio? And where you're prioritizing that money, whether it's just sticky and in cash yielding higher rates versus loan growth versus paying down some of the higher cost borrowings that you have?

有形帳面價值成長相當快。您能提醒我們證券投資組合的現金流量是多少嗎？你優先考慮這筆錢的地方是，它是否只是黏性的、現金形式，與貸款成長相比，會產生更高的利率，還是償還你所擁有的一些成本較高的借款？

Yes. It's about $1 billion a quarter still that matures in the bond portfolio. And I think, this quarter is a nice example where we did everything you mentioned essentially because we mostly funded loan growth, which is our preference. And then some of the cash also went to repayment of the senior notes. Now we don't have an immense amount of high-cost debt in our balance sheet. So that option is not huge. But the preference would be to fund client activity to the extent we can, and hopefully, the demand will be there for that to occur.

是的。債券投資組合中每季仍有約 10 億美元到期。我認為，本季是一個很好的例子，我們基本上做了你提到的所有事情，因為我們主要為貸款成長提供資金，這是我們的偏好。然後部分現金也用於償還優先票據。現在我們的資產負債表中沒有大量高成本債務。所以這個選擇並不大。但我們更傾向於在力所能及的範圍內為客戶活動提供資金，並且希望這種需求能夠實現。

No, in addition to that, this is (inaudible). And you could see it on the presentation on Page 8. We have around $1 billion worth of like treasury notes and MBS that prepay any given quarter, that's being then reinvested at market rates in T-bills. So you kind of see about $1 billion going off of [HTM] portfolio and going into short-term T-bills, which currently have very attractive yields and especially that are exempt for Puerto Rico tax purposes as well. So you get that incremental push every quarter.

不，除此之外，這是（聽不清楚）。您可以在第 8 頁的簡報中看到這一點。我們有價值約 10 億美元的國庫券和 MBS，可在任何特定季度進行預付款，然後按市場利率再投資於國庫券。因此，您將看到大約 10 億美元從 [HTM] 投資組合中轉入短期國庫券，這些國庫券目前的收益率非常有吸引力，尤其是波多黎各的稅收豁免。所以你每季都會得到增量推動。

Got it. That's super helpful. I was hoping I know portfolio -- loan portfolio purchases or something you've got in the past as things that you're looking at. Just wondering if there's any update there, any appetite or potentially -- potential changes in what you're seeing in opportunities to add through some of those strategic purchases?

知道了。這非常有幫助。我希望我知道投資組合——貸款投資組合購買或你過去擁有的東西作為你正在尋找的東西。只是想知道是否有任何更新，任何興趣或潛在的潛在變化，您所看到的透過一些策略採購來增加的機會？

There's nothing to update. I mean our appetite remains the same. If we get shown portfolios of assets that are within our wheelhouse, in other geographies and segments that we like. And we think the opportunity will take a very close look at them. But we do have anything to report. We are looking and people bring us opportunities all the time. Sometimes they're outside our credit box or outside our geographies. But yes, we're open and we will continue to be opportunistic if the right opportunity comes our way.

沒什麼好更新的了我的意思是我們的胃口保持不變。如果我們看到的是我們的駕駛室內、我們喜歡的其他地區和細分市場的資產組合。我們認為有機會仔細觀察它們。但我們確實有什麼要報告的。我們一直在尋找，人們一直為我們帶來機會。有時它們超出了我們的信用範圍或超出了我們的地理位置。但是，是的，我們持開放態度，如果合適的機會出現，我們將繼續抓住機會。

Got it. Last question for me and then I'll step back. I think on prior calls, you said on the fee income side, about $155 million to $160 million a quarter was a good run rate. And this quarter was really strong if you back out the MSR gain, you're right in the middle of that. Just wondering if you could provide an update on what you're seeing on the fee side, any give or take there?

知道了。問我最後一個問題，然後我會退後一步。我認為在之前的電話會議中，您說過在費用收入方面，每季約 1.55 億至 1.6 億美元是一個不錯的運行率。如果你取消 MSR 的收益，這個季度的表現真的很強勁，那麼你就處於其中。只是想知道您是否可以提供您在費用方面所看到的最新情況，以及那裡的任何給予或接受？

Yes. I mean we still think that's the right range, Kelly, $155 million to $160 million. As you know, the -- one of the reasons we like to talk about that range is that any given line in our fees will be up and down every quarter. But the summation is actually less volatile than the individual lines. So I think that range is still the right range in any given quarter. The fees in credit cards may come down and fees in something else will go up, and that may be the opposite in the following quarter. So they move around a lot but the summation actually is a pretty steady stream of business. So $155 million to $160 million still looks like the right range for us.

是的。我的意思是，我們仍然認為這個範圍是正確的，凱利，1.55 億美元到 1.6 億美元。如您所知，我們喜歡談論該範圍的原因之一是我們費用中的任何給定額度每個季度都會上下波動。但總和實際上比單線的波動性小。所以我認為這個範圍在任何特定季度仍然是正確的範圍。信用卡的費用可能會下降，而其他費用可能會上升，而下個季度可能會出現相反的情況。所以他們經常流動，但總和實際上是相當穩定的業務流。因此，1.55 億至 1.6 億美元對我們來說仍然是合適的範圍。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Gerard Cassidy of RBC.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Hello? Gerard, are you there?

你好？杰拉德，你在嗎？

Our next question comes -- it's a follow-up from Alex Twerdahl of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來了——這是 Piper Sandler 的 Alex Twerdahl 的後續問題。

Just a couple of follow-ups. Just back on the fee comment there, are you able to disclose the level or your level of interchange fees in any given quarter?

只是幾個後續行動。回到那裡的費用評論，您是否能夠透露任何特定季度的交換費水平？

Yes, we do. If the reason for your question is the newly announced proposed changes on interchange debit fees. The proposal is implemented as it stands, would probably mean something in the neighborhood of $3 million a quarter to us in reduced income.

是的，我們願意。如果您提出問題的原因是新宣布的交換借記費擬議變更。該提案按目前的情況實施，可能意味著每季我們的收入減少約 300 萬美元。

You nailed it. That's exactly what I was asking. And then I wanted to ask a follow-up on the loan purchase question as well. I think a lot of us are paying attention to these FDIC -- the loans of the FDIC selling and a number of them come in kind of unique structures, these JV structures. Is that something that you'd be willing to take a look at? Or would you only really consider cash purchases?

你成功了。這正是我要問的。然後我也想問一下關於貸款購買問題的後續問題。我認為我們很多人都在關注這些 FDIC——FDIC 出售的貸款，其中許多人以獨特的結構出現，這些合資結構。您願意看一下嗎？或者您真的只考慮現金購買嗎？

No. We'll look at everything. I mean, the JV structures might produce fee income if it makes sense. So we'll look at everything. We're a little bit shy about the sharing losses with the FDIC given our prior experience. But we'll look at everything. I mean if the deal is right, and if price is right, we'll take a look at.

不，我們會考慮一切。我的意思是，如果合理的話，合資結構可能會產生費用收入。所以我們會看看一切。鑑於我們之前的經驗，我們對與 FDIC 分擔損失有點害羞。但我們會看看一切。我的意思是，如果交易合適，價格合適，我們會考慮一下。

We have no further questions on the phone line. So I'll hand back to Ignacio Alvarez.

我們在電話線上沒有其他問題。那麼我將把任務交還給伊格納西奧·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Ignacio Alvarez)。

Thanks again for joining us today and for your questions. We look forward to updating you on our full year results in January, and a happy weekend to all of you. Thank you very much.

再次感謝您今天加入我們並提出問題。我們期待向您通報一月全年業績的最新情況，並祝大家週末愉快。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。