(BLDR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Builders FirstSource Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour including remarks by management and a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions).

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Builders FirstSource 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括管理層的演講和問答環節。 （操作員說明）。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Heather Kos, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Builders FirstSource. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給 Builders FirstSource 投資者關係高級副總裁 Heather Kos。請繼續。

Good morning and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. With me on the call are Dave Rush, our CEO; and Peter Jackson, our CFO. The earnings press release and Investor Presentation are available on our website at investors.builders.com. We will refer to several slides from the Investor Presentation during our call.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長 Dave Rush；和我們的財務長彼得傑克森。收益新聞稿和投資者簡報可在我們的網站 Investors.builders.com 上取得。我們將在電話會議期間參考投資者簡報中的幾張投影片。

The results discussed today include GAAP and non-GAAP results adjusted for certain items. We provide these non-GAAP results for informational purposes and they should not be considered in isolation from the most directly comparable GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures where applicable and a discussion of why we believe they can be useful to investors in our earnings press release, SEC filings and presentation.

今天討論的結果包括針對某些項目調整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果。我們提供這些非 GAAP 結果僅供參考，不應將它們與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標分開考慮。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿、SEC 文件和簡報中找到這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與相應 GAAP 衡量標準（如果適用）的調整表，以及我們為何認為這些衡量標準對投資者有用的討論。

Our remarks in the press release, presentation and on this call contain forward-looking and cautionary statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking statements section in today's press release and in our SEC filings for various factors that could cause our actual results to differ from forward-looking statements and projections.

我們在新聞稿、簡報和本次電話會議中的言論包含《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性和警示性聲明以及對未來結果的預測。請查看今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的前瞻性陳述部分，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述和預測不同的各種因素。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫。

Thank you, Heather. Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining our call. Before we begin, I want to formally welcome Heather to the Builders FirstSource team. We are excited to have someone with her deep knowledge and decades of experience leading investor relations, which is a critical function here. Heather, welcome.

謝謝你，希瑟。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。在我們開始之前，我想正式歡迎 Heather 加入 Builders FirstSource 團隊。我們很高興有一位擁有深厚知識和數十年經驗的人來領導投資者關係，這是這裡的關鍵功能。希瑟，歡迎。

Now onto our Q3 performance. Despite industry volatility caused by macroeconomic headwinds, our resilient third quarter results reflect the strength of our value-added portfolio, broad footprint and operational initiatives we have put in place over the past several years. While challenges remain due to inflation and the increasing mortgage rates, we continue to generate healthy margins. This is proof of our attractive product mix and the benefits of our investments in multifamily. We remain confident in our 2023 outlook as we focus on being the best partner for our customers and executing our strategy to drive long-term growth.

現在我們來看看第三季的表現。儘管宏觀經濟逆風造成行業波動，但我們第三季度的強勁業績反映了我們增值投資組合的實力、廣泛的足跡以及我們在過去幾年採取的營運舉措。儘管通貨膨脹和抵押貸款利率上升帶來的挑戰仍然存在，但我們繼續創造健康的利潤率。這證明了我們有吸引力的產品組合以及我們投資多戶住宅的好處。我們對 2023 年的前景仍然充滿信心，因為我們專注於成為客戶的最佳合作夥伴並執行我們的策略以推動長期成長。

We continue to create robust free cash flow and invest in the business to operate more efficiently, increase customer loyalty and expand our footprint. We are committed to operational excellence, including capturing efficiencies in our supply chain as well as investing in automation and process improvements. These efforts are driving productivity savings and helping address our customers' labor challenges now and into the future.

我們繼續創造強勁的自由現金流，並對業務進行投資，以提高營運效率、提高客戶忠誠度並擴大我們的足跡。我們致力於卓越運營，包括提高供應鏈效率以及投資自動化和流程改進。這些努力正在推動生產力的節約，並幫助我們的客戶解決現在和未來的勞動挑戰。

We are helping our customers reduce cycle times, which is highlighted by improving our in full deliveries from 94% last year to 96% during the third quarter. On time and in full deliveries ensure our customers have the right material at the right time, building their loyalty and trust in us.

我們正在幫助客戶縮短週期時間，第三季的全面交付率從去年的 94% 提高到 96%，這凸顯了這一點。按時、足額交貨可確保我們的客戶在正確的時間獲得正確的材料，從而建立他們對我們的忠誠度和信任。

We are continuing our investments in value-added solutions organically and through M&A to help our customers build more efficiently. These accretive acquisitions have enhanced our value-added product coverage and helped us achieve a leading position in desirable markets as we grow share in these higher-margin products we are mix improvement across the business. Our strong free cash flow provides multiple paths for capital deployment, all towards creating shareholder value. Given the long runway of potential tuck-ins, we will remain acquisitive to bolster our growth potential while maintaining a disciplined focus on the highest return opportunities.

我們將透過併購繼續對增值解決方案進行有機投資，以幫助我們的客戶更有效率地建立。這些增值性收購擴大了我們的增值產品覆蓋範圍，並幫助我們在理想市場中取得領先地位，因為我們在這些利潤率較高的產品中的份額不斷增加，我們正在整個業務中進行組合改進。我們強大的自由現金流為資本部署提供了多種途徑，一切都是為了創造股東價值。考慮到潛在的投資機會很長，我們將繼續積極收購，以增強我們的成長潛力，同時保持對最高回報機會的嚴格關注。

Looking at our third quarter highlights on Slide 4. Gross margin was approximately 35% and only down slightly on a sequential basis. Despite normalization in core margins, our overall margins have remained resilient, primarily due to stronger mix and value-added products, including our multifamily business and improved manufacturing efficiencies. Our adjusted EBITDA margin also remains strong, highlighting our ability to manage our operations effectively in a challenging and dynamic environment. This execution is a reflection of our talented and focused field leadership team.

看看幻燈片 4 上我們第三季的亮點。毛利率約為 35%，僅比上一季略有下降。儘管核心利潤率正常化，但我們的整體利潤率仍然保持彈性，這主要是由於更強大的產品組合和增值產品，包括我們的多戶型業務和製造效率的提高。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率也保持強勁，突顯了我們在充滿挑戰和動態的環境中有效管理營運的能力。這種執行力體現了我們才華洋溢、專注的現場領導團隊。

Turning to Slide 5. We generated strong productivity savings of $54 million during the quarter. This reflects the effectiveness of our BFS 1-Team Operating System, which delivers value across the business by building people, excellence and growth. Our recent acquisitions in multifamily contributed an increase of 2% in sales and 4% in EBITDA compared to the prior year quarter. Multifamily remained a tailwind this quarter and we expect this strength to continue for the remainder of 2023 before declining around the second quarter of next year.

轉向投影片 5。本季我們大幅節省了 5,400 萬美元的生產力。這反映了我們 BFS 1-Team 作業系統的有效性，該作業系統透過人才培養、卓越和成長為整個企業創造價值。與去年同期相比，我們最近對多戶住宅的收購使銷售額增長了 2%，稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 增長了 4%。多戶型住宅在本季度仍然是一股推動力，我們預計這種強勁勢頭將在 2023 年剩餘時間內持續下去，然後在明年第二季度左右下降。

Disciplined SG&A expense management remains a key focus area. This includes the ongoing optimization of our footprint and balancing the need for cost reductions against future capacity needs. We are focused on our discretionary spending and our team has responsibly managed costs in the short term while executing our strategy for the long term.

嚴格的 SG&A 費用管理仍然是一個重點領域。這包括不斷優化我們的足跡，並平衡降低成本的需求與未來的容量需求。我們專注於可自由支配的支出，我們的團隊在執行我們的長期策略的同時，負責任地管理了短期成本。

Regarding our industry, the national builders have reported resilient results by providing incentives such as interest rate buydowns to ease affordability challenges and attract prospective buyers. The limited inventory of existing homes for sale is also steering traffic to new construction. As we look forward to 2024, we will maintain our best-in-class customer service, continue our emphasis on expanding our value-added product mix and launch our BFS digital tool to make building process faster, more efficient and more affordable.

關於我們的行業，國家建築商透過提供利率購買等激勵措施來緩解負擔能力挑戰並吸引潛在買家，報告了有彈性的表現。現有待售房屋庫存有限也將流量轉向新建房屋。展望 2024 年，我們將維持一流的客戶服務，繼續專注於擴大加值產品組合，並推出 BFS 數位工具，使建築過程更快、更有效率、更實惠。

Turning to M&A on Slide 6. We continue to target attractive opportunities while remaining financially disciplined. Through the third quarter, we have completed 5 deals with aggregate prior year sales of roughly $350 million. In September, we acquired Frank's Cash & Carry, a leading building material distributor with truss manufacturing in the Florida Panhandle. We are pleased that this acquisition will help us grow with builders in the area. And earlier in the third quarter, we acquired Church's Lumber which expanded our presence in the Detroit market. We're excited to welcome these talented new team members to the BFS family. As shown on Slide 6, our M&A and organic investments have substantially increased our value-added product mix and diversified our end markets. We have seen the fruit of this growth in recent quarters through higher gross margins even in a down housing market.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的併購。我們繼續瞄準有吸引力的機會，同時保持財務紀律。截至第三季度，我們已完成 5 筆交易，去年總銷售額約 3.5 億美元。 9 月，我們收購了 Frank's Cash & Carry，這是一家領先的建築材料分銷商，在佛羅裡達州狹長地帶進行桁架製造。我們很高興這次收購將幫助我們與該地區的建築商共同成長。第三季早些時候，我們收購了 Church's Lumber，擴大了我們在底特律市場的業務。我們很高興歡迎這些才華橫溢的新團隊成員加入 BFS 大家庭。如投影片 6 所示，我們的併購和有機投資大幅增加了我們的加值產品組合，並使我們的終端市場多元化。即使在房地產市場低迷的情況下，我們也透過更高的毛利率看到了近幾個季度成長的成果。

Moving to Slide 7. I would like to provide an update on capital allocation. During the third quarter, we prudently deployed capital in line with our stated priorities. We made 2 tuck-in acquisitions and repurchased over $200 million of shares while maintaining a strong balance sheet. We have cumulatively deployed approximately $5.7 billion since the end of 2021 and remain on track to achieve our 2025 goal of deploying $7 billion to $10 billion of capital as communicated at our Investor Day in December of 2021.

前往投影片 7。我想提供有關資本配置的最新資訊。第三季度，我們依照既定的重點，審慎部署資本。我們進行了兩次收購併回購了價值超過 2 億美元的股票，同時維持了強勁的資產負債表。自 2021 年底以來，我們已累積部署了約 57 億美元，並將繼續實現 2025 年部署 70 億至 100 億美元資本的目標，正如 2021 年 12 月投資者日所傳達的那樣。

Now let's turn to Slide 8 and 9 for an update on our digital strategy. We are steadfast in our commitment to leading the digital evolution in our industry and generating new innovations to drive greater efficiency across homebuilding and enhance our product and service offerings. As we look forward to our full product launch in Q1, we have made it a priority to drive digital adoption across our operations. myBLDR.com is designed to create efficiencies for both our team members and customers by offering improved transparency and engagement in the homebuilding process. Taken with our proprietary estimating and configuration tools, this gives our customers more control over the entire building process, saving both time and money for our customers and their clients while making the homebuilding process more personalized.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 8 和 9，以了解我們數位策略的最新情況。我們堅定不移地致力於引領產業的數位化發展並產生新的創新，以提高整個住宅建築的效率並增強我們的產品和服務。當我們期待在第一季推出完整產品時，我們將推動整個營運的數位化採用作為首要任務。 myBLDR.com 旨在透過提高住宅建設流程的透明度和參與度，為我們的團隊成員和客戶提高效率。借助我們專有的估算和配置工具，我們的客戶可以更好地控制整個建築過程，為我們的客戶及其客戶節省時間和金錢，同時使住宅建築過程更加個人化。

In the third quarter, we continued our product development and adoption efforts as we prepare for the upcoming full product launch. These are important milestones in our journey to reshape the industry and extend our lead as the partner of choice in the market and attain our goal of $1 billion in incremental sales by 2026. We look forward to sharing more information with you at our Investor Day next month.

在第三季度，我們繼續進行產品開發和採用工作，為即將推出的全面產品做準備。這些是我們重塑產業、擴大我們作為市場首選合作夥伴的領先地位以及實現到 2026 年銷售額增加 10 億美元的目標過程中的重要里程碑。我們期待在下一次投資者日與您分享更多資訊月。

At BFS, we pride ourselves on helping our people achieve their career goals. A team member who has taken full advantage of every growth opportunity presented to her is Sue Dean, the General Manager of our Florence, South Carolina location. Through the various roles she's held over her more than 40 years with BFS, she's earned the nickname, [Sue Dini], for her ability to solve problems and make magic happen. Since being promoted as general manager, Sue has led her location to achieve exceptional results by recognizing her team members' potential and empowering them. In stories like Sue's that made me excited to see all the different ways, our team members can grow here at BFS.

在 BFS，我們為幫助員工實現職業目標而感到自豪。 Sue Dean 是南卡羅來納州佛羅倫薩工廠的總經理，她充分利用了每一個成長機會。 40 多年來，她在 BFS 擔任過各種角色，因其解決問題和創造奇蹟的能力而贏得了綽號 [Sue Dini]。自從晉升為總經理以來，Sue 透過認識團隊成員的潛力並賦予他們權力，帶領她的團隊取得了卓越的表現。在像 Sue 這樣的故事中，我很高興看到我們的團隊成員可以在 BFS 成長。

I'll now turn the call over to Peter to discuss our third quarter financial results in greater detail.

我現在將把電話轉給彼得，更詳細地討論我們第三季的財務表現。

Thank you, Dave and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results demonstrate the effectiveness of our operating model in the face of macro volatility. We are maintaining a healthy balance sheet and prudently deploying capital to the highest return opportunities, which included share repurchases during the quarter. We are leveraging our sustainable competitive advantages and strong financial position to drive future growth and value creation for our shareholders.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。我們第三季的業績證明了我們的營運模式在面對宏觀波動時的有效性。我們正在保持健康的資產負債表，並謹慎地將資本部署到最高回報的機會，其中包括本季的股票回購。我們正在利用我們可持續的競爭優勢和強大的財務狀況來推動股東的未來成長和價值創造。

I will cover 3 topics with you this morning. First, I'll recap our third quarter results. Second, I'll provide an update on capital deployment. And finally, I'll discuss our full year '23 guidance and 2024 scenarios.

今天早上我將與大家討論 3 個主題。首先，我將回顧我們第三季的業績。其次，我將提供有關資本部署的最新情況。最後，我將討論我們的 23 年全年指導和 2024 年情境。

Let's begin by reviewing our third quarter performance on Slides 10 and 11. We delivered $4.5 billion in net sales. Core organic sales decreased by 14%, driven by a 19% decline in single family due to slower demand over the prior year, supply chain normalization and commodity deflation of approximately 9%. Multifamily grew by over 6% driven by our recent acquisitions as well as favorable margins, largely attributable to the longer lead time for this end market. R&R and Other grew by over 1% amid increased sales focus and capacity versus the prior year.

讓我們先回顧一下幻燈片 10 和 11 上的第三季業績。我們實現了 45 億美元的淨銷售額。由於需求較前一年放緩、供應鏈正常化以及商品通貨緊縮約 9%，單一家庭銷售額下降 19%，導致核心有機銷售額下降 14%。在我們最近的收購以及有利的利潤率的推動下，多戶住宅增加了 6% 以上，這主要歸因於該終端市場的交貨時間較長。由於銷售重點和產能較前一年增加，R&R 和其他成長超過 1%。

The cumulative effect of our acquisitions over the past year contributed approximately 3 percentage points of growth to net sales. Importantly, value-added products represented 51% of our net sales this quarter, increasing 6 percentage points since Investor Day in Q4 2021. This reflects our position as the supplier of choice for these higher-margin products.

去年我們收購的累積效應為淨銷售額成長貢獻了約 3 個百分點。重要的是，增值產品占我們本季淨銷售額的 51%，自 2021 年第四季投資者日以來增加了 6 個百分點。這反映了我們作為這些高利潤產品首選供應商的地位。

During the third quarter, gross profit was $1.6 billion, a decrease of approximately 22% compared to the prior year period. Gross margins were 34.9%, decreasing 10 basis points due to normalization in core organic gross margins, offset by roughly 125 basis points of our previously discussed multifamily overearning. SG&A decreased $61 million to $940 million, mainly due to lower variable compensation, partially offset by additional expenses from operations acquired in the last year and inflation. Acquisitions increased SG&A by $34 million in the quarter. As a percentage of net sales, total SG&A increased by 330 basis points to 20.7%, primarily attributable to decreased fixed cost leverage from lower sales. We remain focused on operating efficiently, containing costs and effectively integrating acquisitions.

第三季毛利為16億美元，比去年同期下降約22%。毛利率為 34.9%，由於核心有機毛利率正常化而下降 10 個基點，被我們先前討論的多戶家庭超額收益約 125 個基點所抵銷。 SG&A 減少 6,100 萬美元至 9.4 億美元，主要是由於可變薪酬減少，部分被去年收購的業務的額外費用和通貨膨脹所抵消。本季的收購使 SG&A 增加了 3,400 萬美元。 SG&A 總額佔淨銷售額的百分比增加了 330 個基點，達到 20.7%，這主要是由於銷售額下降導致固定成本槓桿下降。我們仍專注於高效營運、控製成本和有效整合收購。

Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $813 million, down 31%, primarily driven by lower net sales due to a weaker housing market and commodity deflation. Adjusted EBITDA margin remained a robust 17.9%, up 90 basis points sequentially as we continue to execute and drive improved productivity across the business. Adjusted net income of $534 million was down $280 million from the prior year quarter. The 34% decrease was largely due to lower net sales. Adjusted earnings per diluted share was $4.24, down 19% compared to $5.20 in the prior year period. On a year-over-year basis, share repurchases added roughly $0.83 per share.

調整後 EBITDA 約為 8.13 億美元，下降 31%，主要是由於房地產市場疲軟和大宗商品通貨緊縮導致淨銷售額下降。隨著我們繼續執行並推動整個業務生產力的提高，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率仍保持在 17.9% 的強勁水平，比上一季成長 90 個基點。調整後淨利為 5.34 億美元，比去年同期減少 2.8 億美元。 34% 的下降主要是由於淨銷售額下降。調整後每股攤薄收益為 4.24 美元，比去年同期的 5.20 美元下降 19%。與去年同期相比，股票回購增加了每股約 0.83 美元。

Now let's turn to our cash flow, balance sheet and liquidity on Slide 12. Our third quarter operating cash flow was approximately $665 million, down $835 compared to the prior year period, mainly attributable to commodity deflation and a weaker housing market. Capital expenditures were $128 million. All in, we delivered healthy free cash flow of approximately $538 million. For the trailing 12 months ended September 30, our free cash flow yield was 14.1%, while operating cash flow return on invested capital was 32%.

現在讓我們轉向投影片12 上的現金流、資產負債表和流動性。我們第三季的營運現金流約為6.65 億美元，比去年同期減少835 美元，主要歸因於大宗商品通貨緊縮和房地產市場疲軟。資本支出為 1.28 億美元。總而言之，我們實現了約 5.38 億美元的健康自由現金流。截至 9 月 30 日的過去 12 個月，我們的自由現金流收益率為 14.1%，而投資資本的營運現金流回報率為 32%。

Our net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 1.1x while base business leverage was 1.5x. Excluding our ABL, we have no long-term debt maturities until 2030. At quarter end, our total liquidity was approximately $1.1 billion, consisting of $1 billion in net borrowing availability under the revolving credit facility and $100 million of cash on hand.

我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率約為 1.1 倍，而基本業務槓桿率為 1.5 倍。不包括我們的ABL，我們在2030 年之前沒有長期債務到期。截至季度末，我們的總流動性約為11 億美元，其中包括循環信貸安排下的10 億美元淨借款和手頭1 億美元現金。

Moving to capital deployment. During the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.7 million shares for $224 million at an average stock price of $136.22 per share. Year-to-date, we have repurchased nearly $1.6 billion of shares at an average price of $97.43 per share. We have approximately $400 million remaining on our most recent $1 billion share repurchase program approved in April of 2023. We remain disciplined stewards of capital and have multiple paths for value creation through a proven ability to deploy capital and deliver high returns.

轉向資本部署。第三季度，我們以 2.24 億美元的價格回購了約 170 萬股股票，平均股價為每股 136.22 美元。今年迄今為止，我們已以每股 97.43 美元的平均價格回購了近 16 億美元的股票。我們最近在2023 年4 月批准的10 億美元股票回購計畫還剩約4 億美元。我們仍然是嚴格的資本管理者，並透過經過驗證的部署資本和提供高回報的能力，擁有多種創造值的途徑。

Now let's turn to our outlook on Slide 13. Given the affordability headwinds, our Q3 sales were a little softer than expected. However, the October sales trend was seasonally healthy. And our focus -- our continued focus and execution gives us confidence that we will achieve our full year base business and total company EBITDA guidance for 2023 that we outlined in our second quarter earnings call. For full year 2023, we expect total company net sales to be $16.8 billion to $17.1 billion. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin is forecasted to be 15.8% to 16.7% and we are guiding gross margins to a range of 34% to 35%.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 13 的展望。考慮到承受能力的阻力，我們第三季的銷售略低於預期。然而，十月的銷售趨勢是季節性健康的。我們的重點－我們持續的關注和執行讓我們有信心，我們將實現我們在第二季財報電話會議中概述的 2023 年全年基本業務和公司 EBITDA 整體指引。 2023 年全年，我們預計公司總淨銷售額為 168 億美元至 171 億美元。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 為 27 億至 28 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計為 15.8% 至 16.7%，我們將毛利率指導為 34% 至 35%。

Our recent above normal margins reflect a greater mix of value-added products, along with disciplined pricing required to offset increased operating costs. As we move through the end of the year, we expect both our gross margins and the multifamily business to continue to normalize. We expect full year 2023 free cash flow of $1.8 billion to $2 billion. The free cash flow forecast assumes average commodity prices in the range of $400 to $425. Our 2023 outlook is based on several assumptions. Please refer to our earnings release and Slide 14 of the Investor Presentation for a full list of these assumptions.

我們最近高於正常水準的利潤率反映出更多的增值產品組合，以及抵銷增加的營運成本所需的嚴格定價。隨著年底的到來，我們預計我們的毛利率和多戶型業務將繼續正常化。我們預計 2023 年全年自由現金流為 18 億美元至 20 億美元。自由現金流預測假設平均商品價格在 400 美元至 425 美元之間。我們的 2023 年展望是基於多項假設。請參閱我們的收益報告和投資者簡報的幻燈片 14，以了解這些假設的完整清單。

Turning to Slides 15 and 16. As a reminder, our base business approach showcases the underlying strength and profitability of our company by normalizing sales and margins for commodity volatility. This helps to clearly assess the core aspects of the business where we have focused our attention to drive sustainable outperformance. Our base business guide on net sales is $16.4 billion. Our base business EBITDA guide is $2.2 billion at a margin of 13.5%.

轉向投影片 15 和 16。提醒一下，我們的基本業務方法透過使商品波動的銷售和利潤正常化來展示我們公司的潛在實力和盈利能力。這有助於清楚地評估我們重點關注的業務核心方面，以推動可持續的卓越績效。我們的淨銷售額基本業務指南為 164 億美元。我們的基本業務 EBITDA 指南為 22 億美元，利潤率為 13.5%。

Moving to Slide 17. We recognize that 2024 is coming into focus as we approach year-end. Like we did earlier this year, we have laid out a scenario analysis to demonstrate how we are positioned to generate resilient financial performance across a range of potential housing market and commodity conditions. I want to emphasize that this is not full year guidance for 2024. But these scenarios should help clarify our range of performance expectations for 2024 and demonstrate the strength of our best-in-class operating platform.

轉向幻燈片 17。我們認識到，隨著年底的臨近，2024 年將成為人們關注的焦點。就像我們今年稍早所做的那樣，我們制定了情境分析，以展示我們如何在一系列潛在的房地產市場和大宗商品條件下實現有彈性的財務表現。我想強調的是，這不是 2024 年的全年指引。但這些情景應該有助於明確我們對 2024 年的業績預期範圍，並展示我們一流營運平台的實力。

As a wrap up, I want to reiterate that we are confident in the near-term outlook, our exceptional positioning to execute our strategic goals and our ability to create value in any environment to support profitable growth.

作為總結，我想重申，我們對近期前景、執行策略目標的卓越定位以及在任何環境下創造價值以支持獲利成長的能力充滿信心。

With that, let me turn the call back over to Dave for some final thoughts.

接下來，讓我將電話轉回給戴夫，以徵求一些最後的想法。

Thanks, Peter. Let me close by saying that we're executing on our strategic pillars to deliver long-term value creation. Our tireless team effort has resulted in a differentiated platform, setting us up for above-market growth and exceptional profitability for years to come. I continue to be proud of our operational excellence, which is driving increased safety, productivity and profitability despite market headwinds. We are in a great position today. And as end markets further stabilize, we are positioned for an even stronger future.

謝謝，彼得。最後我要說的是，我們正在執行我們的策略支柱，以實現長期價值創造。我們團隊的不懈努力打造了一個差異化的平台，為我們在未來幾年實現高於市場的成長和卓越的獲利能力奠定了基礎。我仍然為我們的卓越營運感到自豪，儘管市場存在阻力，但我們的卓越營運仍在推動安全性、生產力和獲利能力的提高。今天我們處於有利地位。隨著終端市場進一步穩定，我們將迎來更美好的未來。

We'll remain at the forefront of technology with our BFS digital tools, as I'm confident will be a game changer for the industry. We are exceptionally well positioned in the marketplace to navigate complex operating environments due to our value-added solutions, fortress balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation.

我們將透過 BFS 數位工具保持技術前沿，因為我相信這將改變產業的遊戲規則。憑藉我們的增值解決方案、堡壘般的資產負債表和強大的自由現金流產生能力，我們在市場中處於非常有利的地位，能夠應對複雜的營運環境。

We're excited to share more details about our long-term vision at our upcoming Investor Day on December 5 in Atlanta and look forward to seeing you there. Thank you again for joining us today.

我們很高興能在即將於 12 月 5 日在亞特蘭大舉行的投資者日分享更多有關我們長期願景的細節，並期待在那裡見到您。再次感謝您今天加入我們。

Operator, let's please open the call now for questions.

接線員，我們現在請打開電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

I think it's very helpful that you outlined those '24 framework assumptions here, especially as you look ahead to the Investor Day, perhaps precluding some of that line of questioning, so you can focus a bit more on the longer term. So my questions will focus on that. I think I see in the footnote that you are making assumptions about multifamily and R&R into '24. I think Dave, earlier you made a very specific comment that multifamily could turn in the second quarter of next year. So my question is, how is multifamily contemplated from both a growth and margin perspective in that 2024 framework?

我認為您在這裡概述了 24 小時框架假設非常有幫助，尤其是當您展望投資者日時，也許可以排除一些此類質疑，因此您可以更多地關注長期目標。所以我的問題將集中於此。我想我在腳註中看到你正在對 24 年的多戶家庭和 R&R 做出假設。我認為戴夫，您早些時候發表了非常具體的評論，稱多戶住宅可能會在明年第二季度轉變。所以我的問題是，在 2024 年框架中如何從成長和利潤的角度考慮多戶住宅？

Yes. Thanks, Matt. Appreciate the question. As you know, the multifamily projects have a longer life cycle, tend to be 19 to 18 months. So what we're seeing in the backlog right now is healthy and will carry us through the first quarter of next year. What's changing -- the dynamic that's changing a bit is the projects, the new projects are slower to come to market. We believe there's going to be a pause in some of the multifamily as the market digests what's coming -- what's completing throughout this year. And as they figure out the right balance between cost of capital and rents and what return they can get on the rents, we just think there's going to be a temporary pause and then things will start up again at the tail end of 2024. But again, because there's such a long cycle for those projects to get into the ground, we won't necessarily see that effect in '24. So we're forecasting for multifamily to be off in '24 as a result.

是的。謝謝，馬特。感謝這個問題。如您所知，多戶住宅專案的生命週期較長，往往為 19 至 18 個月。因此，我們現在看到的積壓情況是健康的，並將支撐我們度過明年第一季。正在改變的是項目，新項目進入市場的速度較慢。我們相信，隨著市場消化即將發生的事情（今年將完成的事情），一些多戶住宅將會暫停。當他們在資本成本和租金之間找到適當的平衡，以及他們可以從租金中獲得什麼回報時，我們只是認為將會有暫時的停頓，然後事情會在 2024 年底再次開始。 ，因為這些項目落地的週期很長，我們不一定會在24 年看到這種效果。因此，我們預測多戶住宅將在 24 年消失。

Yes, just to add to it, I think it's the theme of normalization. We've seen such displacement in the industry over the last couple of years, multifamily included, you're going to see that theme, I think, in a lot of what we're talking about. Things are going well but certainly normalizing back from some of that displacement.

是的，補充一下，我認為這是一個正常化的主題。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經看到了這個行業的這種轉變，包括多戶住宅，我想，你會在我們談論的許多內容中看到這個主題。事情進展順利，但肯定會從一些位移中恢復正常。

Got it. Okay. Very helpful. And then second one, the, I'm sticking on the framework here. On the single-family side, I guess, it's a 2 parter. #1, the low end of a down 4%, just given where interest rates are and a lot of the questions out there, my question is effectively, why not outline a lower end? And in that scenario of a lower, lower end would you be able to kind of push any harder on cost out? So that's kind of part 1 of the question. And then part 2, is just, given the sort of mid-teens EBITDA margin you're guiding to, I guess, what is the sort of implied gross margin in that? I know there's a lot in there.

知道了。好的。很有幫助。然後是第二個，我堅持這裡的框架。在單戶家庭方面，我想，這是一個兩人家庭。 #1，下降 4% 的低端，只要考慮到利率水平和很多問題，我的問題實際上是，為什麼不概述一個低端？在這種越來越低端的情況下，您是否能夠更努力地降低成本？這就是問題的第一部分。然後第二部分就是，考慮到你所指導的 EBITDA 利潤率是十幾歲左右，我想，其中隱含的毛利率是多少？我知道裡面有很多東西。

Yes. So I think there are a couple of factors. The first is that we've harvested the feedback from the economists. That's generally what we lean on just like everybody else, when it comes to the expectations for next year. We certainly try and temper it a little bit by, let's say, eliminating, as statisticians do, the high end, the low end or the ones that look ridiculous and sort of in terms of trying to come up with a real number. Up until very recently, I would tell you that the sense was that we would see some nice growth next year.

是的。所以我認為有幾個因素。首先，我們已經收集了經濟學家的回饋。當談到明年的期望時，這通常是我們和其他人一樣所依賴的。我們當然會嘗試對其進行一點調整，就像統計學家所做的那樣，消除高端、低端或那些看起來很荒謬的數據，並試圖得出一個真實的數字。直到最近，我會告訴你，我們明年會看到一些不錯的成長。

Admittedly, some of the more recent revisions from the economists have pulled it back but I still think it's fairly favorable. So what will play out? Sure, that's a fair, it's a fair comment, really the reason why we gave the range that we did is, we think there are a number of scenarios that could play out.

誠然，經濟學家最近的一些修正已經將其拉回，但我仍然認為這是相當有利的。那麼會發生什麼事呢？當然，這是一個公平的評論，我們給出這個範圍的真正原因是，我們認為有很多情況可以發生。

If you want to go below the low end of this, I love the question because I think what you didn't ask as informative as anything and that's -- nobody is challenging our double-digit margins even when the market isn't down anymore. And that's because we've demonstrated an ability to maintain those margins to see healthy profitability, to benefit from the mix of our business and we expect to continue to be able to do that.

如果你想低於這個低端，我喜歡這個問題，因為我認為你沒有問什麼資訊那麼豐富，那就是——即使市場不再下跌，也沒有人挑戰我們的兩位數利潤率。這是因為我們已經證明有能力維持這些利潤，以實現健康的盈利能力，從我們的業務組合中受益，並且我們希望繼續能夠做到這一點。

Now we'll certainly retain our discipline around costs. We'll continue to resize facilities and markets depending on what the starts numbers and what the business looks like. But I think our theme around here is really about consistent performance and operational excellence and not really seeing a huge need to do something unwise for the business but just keep doing what we are doing because we're seeing great results.

現在，我們肯定會保留有關成本的紀律。我們將繼續根據開工數量和業務狀況調整設施和市場規模。但我認為我們的主題實際上是關於一致的績效和卓越的運營，並沒有真正看到為業務做一些不明智的事情的巨大需要，而是繼續做我們正在做的事情，因為我們看到了很好的結果。

And just to add, Matt, it's continuing to drive costs out of the business that don't add value. The benefit of our platform and the fact that we've done the hard work in the last 2 years to integrate these companies, we have a 30-year average experience with our field leadership group. They know what to do, when to do it and how to manage those costs effectively to maximize whatever is presented to us. And we've identified a lot of opportunities to continue to focus on productivity. And where we are now is, we don't have to keep reinventing those opportunities because our scale allows us to push that across the platform. And we have plenty of runway to take existing ideas into markets that we haven't been able to push those ideas yet just because of our scale and find -- keep finding dollars to save.

馬特還要補充一點，它正在繼續降低不增加價值的業務成本。由於我們平台的優勢以及過去 2 年我們為整合這些公司所做的艱苦努力，我們的現場領導團隊平均擁有 30 年的經驗。他們知道該做什麼、何時做以及如何有效地管理這些成本，以最大限度地提高我們所面臨的一切。我們已經發現了許多繼續關註生產力的機會。我們現在所處的位置是，我們不必不斷重新創造這些機會，因為我們的規模使我們能夠在整個平台上推動這些機會。我們有足夠的空間將現有的想法帶入市場，而我們還無法將這些想法推向市場，只是因為我們的規模和發現——不斷尋找可以節省的資金。

Got it. That's super helpful. And my question, did you have anything around the gross margin expectation within that mid-teens EBITDA guide?

知道了。這非常有幫助。我的問題是，您對 EBITDA 指南中的毛利率預期有任何了解嗎？

We don't give anything specific but I think it's fair to say we do expect to see normalization into 2024, that, that pullback, the reversal of the multifamily, in particular. But overall, that normalization theme, I think, applies to margins as well.

我們沒有給出任何具體信息，但我認為可以公平地說，我們確實期望看到 2024 年實現正常化，尤其是多戶型住宅的回調、逆轉。但總的來說，我認為這種正常化主題也適用於利潤率。

Got it. I appreciate the very comprehensive answers, guys. See you in Atlanta in a month.

知道了。我很欣賞你們非常全面的答案，夥計們。一個月後在亞特蘭大見。

And we have our next question from Trey Grooms with Stephens.

特雷·格魯姆斯和史蒂芬斯提出了下一個問題。

So first question, Peter, you mentioned that October trends were -- I think you used the word healthy. Can you go through maybe some more detail on 4Q, kind of what you're seeing thus far? And maybe what -- kind of looking into your single-family assumption that you're baking in here for the 4Q guide?

所以第一個問題，彼得，你提到十月的趨勢是－－我認為你使用了「健康」這個詞。您能否詳細介紹一下 4Q 的更多細節，例如您迄今為止所看到的情況？也許什麼——調查一下你在這裡烘焙第四季度指南的單戶假設？

Sure. I can get started. I'm sure Dave will commentary as well. But the year has been a good year, right? We had that big reset at the beginning when the builders decided where their new rates would be and it's been very stable. I think we did expect there would be a little bit more volume in the third quarter. We thought there'd be a little bit of a push. Certainly, the commentary from the large nationals was very strong. And for a variety of reasons, whether it be tone or weather or whatever the factors were, it just wasn't as good as we expected. Our performance was still quite good. We're certainly pleased with our profitability. But as we look at the way the year has played out into the fourth quarter, it's still healthy. The strength of the business continues and we're pleased with that ability to continue to see good flow-through on the sales side despite some of the headlines that sort of have gotten everybody so concerned.

當然。我可以開始了。我相信戴夫也會發表評論。但這一年是美好的一年，對嗎？當建築商決定他們的新費率時，我們一開始就進行了重大重置，並且非常穩定。我認為我們確實預計第三季的銷量會增加。我們認為會有一點推動力。當然，來自大國民的評論非常強烈。由於各種原因，無論是語氣、天氣或其他因素，它並沒有我們預期的那麼好。我們的表現還是相當不錯的。我們對我們的獲利能力當然感到滿意。但當我們看看今年第四季的情況時，它仍然很健康。業務的實力仍在繼續，我們很高興能夠繼續看到銷售方面良好的流通，儘管有些頭條新聞讓每個人都如此擔心。

Yes. The only thing I'd add is the national builders continue to be stable, right? I'm not saying that they're expecting substantial robust growth but they're definitely still going forward with the plans that they've communicated to us. Their ability to use interest rate buydowns and get a prospective buyer into a monthly payment they can afford is working. They're basically using that methodology to get the payment and then go from the payment to a selection of house based on that payment and that's working. So that's encouraging for the fourth quarter, at least to stay at a stable rate and really only be affected by seasonality.

是的。我唯一要補充的是國家建設者繼續保持穩定，對嗎？我並不是說他們期望大幅強勁成長，但他們肯定仍在推進他們向我們傳達的計劃。他們利用利率買斷並讓潛在買家按他們能負擔得起的每月付款的能力正在發揮作用。他們基本上使用這種方法來獲得付款，然後根據付款選擇房子，這很有效。因此，這對第四季度來說是令人鼓舞的，至少保持穩定的速度，並且實際上只受到季節性的影響。

Yes. Okay. Got it. And then the full digital rollout coming up soon. Any color on how that plays into your scenario analysis for next year that you rolled out?

是的。好的。知道了。然後全面的數位化即將推出。您對明年推出的情境分析有何看法？

It's pretty modest in the first year. It's in the hundreds of millions sales but we've certainly got a lot of focus in the organization on the initial adoption, the communication and getting it into the hands of both our side of our salespeople and leadership as well as our customers. But so far, the feedback has been great. We're really pleased with the tools and the development successes. We're meeting milestones and feeling really good about the product that we're going to have to show the market and we're excited that the market is going to be able to benefit from the tools to improve efficiency and take costs out.

第一年的情況相當溫和。它的銷售額達到數億美元，但我們在組織中確實非常關注最初的採用、溝通以及將其交到我們銷售人員和領導層以及客戶的手中。但到目前為止，反饋非常好。我們對這些工具和開發成功感到非常滿意。我們正在實現里程碑，並對我們將要向市場展示的產品感到非常滿意，我們很高興市場將能夠從這些工具中受益，以提高效率並降低成本。

Yes. The development is right on track. We had a preview this week. In fact, of some of the features, and I continue to be wowed by our development team. But it's changed. It's not only a change for the customers we're going to introduce it to but it's changed for our people. And we want to make sure we do this the right way, the prudent way, methodically, making sure the adoption goes the way we want because we really only get one bite at this apple and we want to sure that what we do is the best way for us to ensure success. But what we're showing people, you're going to be impressed by. I can't wait for you guys to see it when we get to rollout.

是的。發展正步入正軌。本週我們進行了預覽。事實上，對於其中的一些功能，我們的開發團隊仍然讓我驚嘆不已。但它已經改變了。這不僅是我們要向其介紹的客戶的改變，也是我們員工的改變。我們希望確保我們以正確的方式、謹慎的方式、有條不紊地做到這一點，確保採用的方式按照我們想要的方式進行，因為我們實際上只咬了一口這個蘋果，我們希望確保我們所做的是最好的我們確保成功的方法。但我們向人們展示的東西一定會讓您留下深刻的印象。當我們推出時，我迫不及待地想讓你們看到它。

And we have our next question from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer 提出了下一個問題。

Quickly on the '24 scenarios. I was just wondering if you could add some context on the revenue assumptions here because if you take the single-family starts numbers and kind of take that on your business revenue, your output on sales would be much higher than that and I get there's other things in there. And given the commodity assumptions, though and I don't think M&A is that significant carryover into next year and you're talking about multifamily down.

快速了解 '24 情境。我只是想知道您是否可以在此處添加一些有關收入假設的背景信息，因為如果您採用單戶家庭的開工數據並將其計入您的業務收入，那麼您的銷售產出將遠高於此，而且我知道還有其他裡面的東西。不過，考慮到大宗商品的假設，我認為併購不會對明年產生重大影響，而且你談論的是多戶住宅的下降。

So what I guess I'm getting to is, there seems to be sort of like a mid-single-digit type outperformance to the starts volume. Wondering if you could just touch on whether you think that's actual price or if you're baking in some outperformance versus that volume.

所以我想我要說的是，與起始量相比，似乎有一種中等個位數的表現。想知道您是否可以簡單談談您認為這是否是實際價格，或者您是否正在烘焙一些優於該數量的表現。

Yes. Yes, I guess the short answer is we are expecting some outperformance. But if I just could re-baseline on the key components, single family, multifamily down on the normalization, the 2 big drivers there, obviously, is continued normalization in the, in both the sales and the margins in those displaced areas, multifamily, those categories where we saw some out earning, that's certainly happening. But we are confident in our ability to take share and see growth based on what we've been able to deliver and the investments we've made.

是的。是的，我想簡短的回答是我們期待一些出色的表現。但如果我能夠重新設定關鍵組成部分的基準，單戶、多戶住宅的正常化水平下降，那麼顯然，兩個主要驅動因素是這些流離失所地區的銷售和利潤率的持續正常化，多戶住宅，在那些我們看到一些盈利的類別中，這種情況肯定正在發生。但我們對根據我們已經提供的服務和所做的投資來獲取份額和實現成長的能力充滿信心。

That's great. Very encouraging. And then you mentioned sort of getting these ranges from economists' discussions. What about your discussions for with the large builders and even small and regional builders? And then just wondering if you could touch on any differences in outlook between those 2 groups into next year.

那太棒了。非常鼓舞人心。然後你提到從經濟學家的討論中獲得這些範圍。您與大型建築商甚至小型和區域建築商的討論怎麼樣？然後想知道您是否可以談談這兩組人對明年的前景有何差異。

Well, the smaller builders don't have the access to rate buydowns that the larger builders have had and that's really the main differentiating factor. Interestingly enough, it's a small percentage of the total market but there are -- there's a market increase in cash buyers, which is a big part of what's going to keep the smaller guys going as well.

嗯，較小的建築商無法獲得較大建築商所擁有的利率購買，這確實是主要的差異化因素。有趣的是，它只佔整個市場的一小部分，但現金買家的市場增加，這也是讓小型企業繼續發展的重要原因。

I think it's still -- the word I would use is stable. Again, I don't think it will be robust from a standpoint of the every -- all the macroeconomic uncertainty get resolved but the demand is clearly there. I mean I think that's what's carried us through with all the headwinds that we faced as an industry in the last 6 months. I think it's been a ultimate proof point that the long-term demand is there. So as far -- as long as we can keep that affordability equation in check, I think that it will be a stable environment. And that's what we're hearing from our larger customers.

我認為它仍然是——我會用的詞是穩定。再說一次，我認為從每個人的角度來看，這不會是強勁的——所有宏觀經濟不確定性都得到了解決，但需求顯然是存在的。我的意思是，我認為這就是我們在過去 6 個月帶領我們這個行業克服所有逆風的原因。我認為這是長期需求存在的最終證明。到目前為止，只要我們能夠控制負擔能力方程，我認為這將是一個穩定的環境。這就是我們從大客戶那裡聽到的。

And we have our next question from Keith Hughes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題是 Keith Hughes 和 Truist 提出的。

Got a question on the actual quarter. The value-added products saw pressure as the rest of the market, didn't really outperform the company average as much as normal. I just, if you're talking about specifically in the quarter, what was going on there and what the next couple of quarters you think looks like in those products.

有關於實際季度的問題。加值產品面臨壓力，而市場其他產品的表現並沒有像正常情況那樣真正超過公司平均水平。我只是，如果你具體談論本季度，那裡發生了什麼，以及你認為這些產品在接下來的幾個季度會是什麼樣子。

Yes. No, that's a good question, Keith. One of the things that obviously drew my attention was that number this quarter and making sure that we understood exactly what was going on in the business. I'll start by saying, we feel very good about the number. It has performed better than expected versus the starts over the last year and it's given us confidence that both the volume and the margins are real and sustainable.

是的。不，這是一個好問題，基斯。顯然引起我注意的一件事是本季的數字，並確保我們準確地了解業務中正在發生的事情。首先我要說的是，我們對這個數字感覺非常好。與去年的開工相比，它的表現優於預期，這讓我們相信銷售和利潤率都是真實且可持續的。

What you're seeing in the comps, though, is that last year, when the thing -- when the market, when single-family starts really started to turn down, we saw a massive and meaningful impact on the lumber and lumber sheet goods, right, the core commodity component of our business. That turned down quick. But at the same time, we were still seeing growth in our value-added categories, the manufactured product, windows stores and millwork, all still growing as we were working through all that backlog, right, the extended cycle times by the builders, the lack of product by the vendors that was clearing. So that was the dynamic last year. This year, we're lapping that.

不過，你在比較中看到的是，去年，當市場、單戶住宅開始真正開始下滑時，我們看到了對木材和板材商品的巨大而有意義的影響，對，我們業務的核心商品組成部分。那很快就被拒絕了。但同時，我們仍然看到增值類別、製成品、櫥窗商店和木製品的增長，所有這些仍在增長，因為我們正在處理所有積壓的訂單，對吧，建築商延長了周期時間，正在清算的供應商缺乏產品。這就是去年的動態。今年，我們正在努力做到這一點。

And so what we've seen is that while statistically or on a percentage basis, a bit weaker than some of the other categories and looking worse on average, it's actually in line, is just a little bit of timing in terms of the year-over-year. So still feel good about it, still investing, still seeing the benefits both on the profitability and the revenue line but a little bit of comp issue.

所以我們看到的是，雖然從統計數據或百分比來看，比其他一些類別要弱一些，而且平均看起來更差，但它實際上是一致的，只是就年份而言有點時機——超過一年。因此，仍然對此感覺良好，仍在投資，仍然看到盈利能力和收入線方面的好處，但有一點補償問題。

I would just add that the thing I pay attention to is what's the average backlog in our plants today, very healthy 3- to 4-week backlog, that's kind of where we want to be because we want be at that level of customer service as well. And we're seeing that still stay steady and healthy.

我想補充一點，我關注的是我們工廠今天的平均積壓量是多少，非常健康的 3 到 4 週積壓量，這就是我們想要達到的目標，因為我們希望達到這樣的客戶服務水平出色地。我們看到它仍然保持穩定和健康。

Okay. One other question on the price deflation in the quarter. Is that all lumber? Or are there any other products where you're seeing prices deflating year-over-year?

好的。關於本季價格通貨緊縮的另一個問題。都是木頭嗎？或者您發現其他產品的價格逐年下降？

I'd say in general, it's across the board. We've talked a lot about inflation and some of the impacts there. Some of that has pulled back. We've seen certain categories pull back. We've seen the competition increase and some of those margins erode. Clearly, the bulk of it, the vast majority of it is on the commodity components. But we've seen a little bit elsewhere. Probably value add, no, not probably. Value-add but at least in terms of margin normalization. But across the board, I think it's fair to say.

我想說的是，總的來說，這是全面的。我們已經討論了很多關於通貨膨脹及其影響的問題。其中一些已經回落。我們已經看到某些類別的回落。我們看到競爭加劇，其中一些利潤被侵蝕。顯然，其中大部分、絕大多數是在商品組件上。但我們在其他地方也看到了一些。可能會增值，不，不太可能。增值，但至少在利潤正常化方面。但總的來說，我認為這是公平的。

Keith, were you asking about price or our cost from vendors?

基思，您是向供應商詢問價格還是我們的成本嗎？

I was -- well, really both. I mean just in general, between, both coming in and out of the warehouse, besides lumber, are there any specific products that you would call out that's seeing more deflation than another.

我——嗯，確實兩者都是。我的意思是，一般來說，在進出倉庫之間，除了木材之外，是否有任何特定產品比其他產品出現更多的通貨緊縮。

Well, I think we've talked about it in prior quarters. There are a couple of categories that we've seen make some moves, probably the most obvious example is -- after commodities is engineered lumber. They had some pretty substantial price increases and have given a portion of that back. I would say, in general, though, it's been fairly modest.

嗯，我想我們在前幾個季度已經討論過這個問題。我們看到有幾個類別發生了一些變化，最明顯的例子可能是——在大宗商品是工程木材之後。他們的價格上漲了相當大的幅度，並回饋了其中的一部分。但我想說，總的來說，這是相當溫和的。

The good news is, in cost increases for the most part, that's leveled out more back to a regular normal increase for cost of inflation and that's it.

好消息是，在大部分成本成長中，通膨成本已趨於正常成長，僅此而已。

And we have our next question from Collin Verron with Jefferies.

我們有科林·維隆和傑弗里斯提出的下一個問題。

I appreciate the color on single-family and multifamily. I was just hoping you can walk us through how you're thinking about the R&R end market and the potential 2024 scenarios, kind of what informs your assumptions around those markets and maybe how the R&R business stacks up from a margin or product mix perspective.

我喜歡單戶住宅和多戶住宅的顏色。我只是希望您能向我們介紹一下您如何看待 R&R 終端市場和 2024 年潛在的情景，是什麼影響了您對這些市場的假設，以及 R&R 業務如何從利潤或產品組合的角度進行疊加。

Yes. R&R is fairly small for us, as you know. In that 20% of the business range, it's inclusive of our retail and commercial categories, so that's -- there's a lot in there.

是的。如您所知，R&R 對我們來說相當小。在這 20% 的業務範圍中，它包括我們的零售和商業類別，所以，裡面有很多東西。

In general, what we've seen is that we've had a bit more capacity available as the overall market has slowed and that's allowed us to focus in and we've had some success. So while there's -- there have been and we see it as well, some headlines out of the economists that the investment side on the R&R might be pressured, we're feeling pretty good about what we've seen so far in our ability to fill available capacity by just offering our better services and product portfolio and expertise to the categories of customers who want it but haven't been able to get access to it.

總的來說，我們看到的是，隨著整體市場放緩，我們擁有了更多的可用產能，這使我們能夠集中精力，並且取得了一些成功。因此，雖然經濟學家也看到了一些頭條新聞，稱 R&R 的投資方面可能會面臨壓力，但我們對迄今為止所看到的能力感到非常滿意。只需向需要但無法獲得的客戶類別提供更多好的服務、產品組合和專業知識，即可填補可用容量。

Great. That's helpful color. And then on the gross margin side, I think in the quarter it held up better than I think your previous guide would have implied. Can you just walk us through why margins were more resilient this quarter than you had anticipated? And then maybe help us think about the step-down in the margins and how quickly you think that, that could happen to get to that longer term guide that you pointed out there?

偉大的。這是有用的顏色。然後在毛利率方面，我認為本季的表現比我認為您之前的指南所暗示的要好。您能否向我們介紹為什麼本季的利潤率比您預期的更有彈性？然後也許可以幫助我們考慮利潤率的下降，以及您認為這可能會以多快的速度達到您指出的長期指南？

Yes. No, that's a million dollar question, Collin. You're absolutely right. We continue to wrestle with this. We continue to see the trends of that normalization, right? The share that we took, that we took a lot of and given back a little bit of it, the price that we took, that we took a lot of and given back a little bit of it, it has played out but I think it's fair to say it's been slower than we've anticipated.

是的。不，這是一個價值百萬美元的問題，科林。你是絕對正確的。我們將繼續努力解決這個問題。我們繼續看到這種正常化的趨勢，對吧？我們拿走的份額，我們拿走了很多，並回饋了一點，我們拿走了的價格，我們拿走了很多，回饋了一點，它已經發揮了作用，但我認為這是公平地說，它比我們預期的慢。

This quarter, we did see a fair amount of what we expected. I think where the beat came, at least in my mind, was some of the timing around some of the rebates, some of the productivity, some of the favorable tailwinds and some of the product mix, just a little better than expected, not massive but it accumulated into a number that was a healthy beat on the margin line than what we would have originally, to your point, expected.

本季度，我們確實看到了相當多的預期。我認為至少在我看來，節拍的出現是圍繞著一些回扣、一些生產力、一些有利的順風和一些產品組合的一些時機，只是比預期好一點，而不是巨大但它累積成的數字在利潤線上比我們最初預期的要健康。

The only thing I'd add is, we have a focus on using our scale to leverage our supply chain opportunities better, get a lower lending cost, more direct sourcing. And those come in little bits. We get a bite here on a product, a bite there on a product. But over time, they start adding up. That, along with the investments we've made in the manufacturing automation and the efficiencies gained there, again, a little bit at a time but when you look back in 6 months of doing it and it's actually a meaningful number. Those things we're starting to be able to track and see actually help.

我唯一要補充的是，我們專注於利用我們的規模來更好地利用我們的供應鏈機會，獲得更低的貸款成本，更直接的採購。這些都是一點點的。我們在這裡咬一口產品，在那裡咬一口產品。但隨著時間的推移，它們開始增加。再加上我們在製造自動化方面進行的投資以及在那裡獲得的效率，同樣，一次一點點，但當你回顧 6 個月的做法時，這實際上是一個有意義的數字。我們開始能夠追蹤和看到的那些東西確實有幫助。

And we have our next question from Adam Baumgarten with Zelman.

亞當·鮑姆加滕 (Adam Baumgarten) 和澤爾曼 (Zelman) 提出了下一個問題。

You mentioned the multifamily declines that you're expecting in the second quarter of next year. Do you expect that business to normalize from a margin perspective in 2024 at this point? I know it's been a bit of a tailwind.

您提到了您預計明年第二季多戶住宅數量將會下降。您預計該業務在 2024 年的利潤率方面會正常化嗎？我知道這有點順風順水。

We do. We think those things are kind of hand in glove, both the volumes and then the margin -- the resulting margins, as the competition levels a little bit.

我們的確是。我們認為這些事情是密切相關的，包括銷售和利潤——隨著競爭的加劇而產生的利潤。

And our next question comes from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kurt Yiner。戴維森。

I just wanted to stick on the gross margin line. And I guess if you were to kind of peel back some of the multifamily benefits, I mean, how would you kind of characterize where that core gross margin stands versus where you would expect normalized to be? And what stage of that normalization process are we in? Because we talked about in a long time, it seems like, over the last several quarters, it started to materialize. But the tail of how that stretches into next year also seems pretty long. So I'd just love to hear your thoughts there.

我只是想堅持毛利率。我想如果你要剝離一些多戶家庭福利，我的意思是，你會如何描述核心毛利率與你期望的標準化水準的關係？我們正處於正常化進程的哪個階段？因為我們討論了很長時間，似乎在過去幾個季度裡，它開始實現。但這種情況如何延續到明年似乎也很長。所以我很想聽聽你的想法。

Yes. So there's a couple of different pieces, right? If you stipulate, which I think you have, that we've set multifamily aside for all the reasons we've already talked about. I think the storyline on single family is that we've seen the bulk of the margin normalization in the core products. There's more to go but I think we've seen the bulk of it.

是的。所以有幾個不同的部分，對嗎？如果你規定（我認為你已經規定了），我們已經出於我們已經討論過的所有原因將多戶家庭放在一邊。我認為單一家庭的故事情節是我們已經看到核心產品的大部分利潤正常化。還有更多的事情要做，但我想我們已經看到了其中的大部分。

If you look at subcategories quarter-over-quarter, so Q3 '23 to Q3 '22, you're talking mid-single digits percentages of margin that we've given back in the commodity space. We've given back price and margin in everyone of the categories. So that normalization that we've been talking about, we've been digesting it and we've been processing it. I don't think we're done. I think when we look at the numbers, we see the trends in certain categories and markets. There's probably another leg there but it's far smaller than first leg. So we're in the sixth, seventh inning here. We're not in the second inning.

如果你按季度查看子類別，那麼從 23 年第三季度到 22 年第三季度，你所說的是我們在商品領域回饋的中個位數百分比的利潤。我們回饋了所有類別的價格和利潤。因此，我們一直在談論的標準化，我們一直在消化它，我們一直在處理它。我不認為我們已經完成了。我認為當我們查看這些數字時，我們會看到某些類別和市場的趨勢。那裡可能還有另一條腿，但它比第一條腿小得多。現在我們已經進入第六、第七局了。我們還沒有進入第二局。

That said, there's certainly, every quarter, timing and things that come through in terms of like Dave said, when we see benefits, when we see the timing of certain rebates, that sort of thing. And multifamily is not to be minimized, right? It's been a big deal for us this year and we do think it will normalize into next year.

也就是說，每個季度肯定會有一些時間和事情發生，就像戴夫所說的那樣，當我們看到好處時，當我們看到某些回扣的時間時，諸如此類的事情。多戶住宅不應被最小化，對嗎？今年這對我們來說是一件大事，我們確實認為明年它會正常化。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then just on the technology front, I'm curious with some of the pilots that you've had. What are kind of some of the most promising offerings within that where you've seen particular traction? And maybe some of the big learnings that you've taken away from these programs that you'll look to implement or change kind of on the full-scale launch early next year?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後就技術而言，我對你們的一些試點感到好奇。您認為其中最有前景的產品有哪些？也許您從這些計劃中學到的一些重要經驗將在明年初全面啟動時實施或改變？

Yes. That's a great question.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。

I would tell you, understand the pilots are not for learning how to implement, it's for learning how to develop. So what we've used the pilots for is, get the product where we want it to get. Having said that, one of the favorite modules of the folks that are engaged is the one that you can take and put all the plans for HVAC, framing, plumbing, all into a module and it shows where those trades potentially would collide with each other and resolve that collision in -- before it goes live into the field. And that is the one that particularly builders think gives them the biggest and quickest return from savings because it minimizes the mistakes that you would have to learn on the fly in the field and you get ahead of them. So that's probably the one that we get the most positive feedback on. But what we're really trying to do is get everything resolved from a customer perspective on the front end. So when we go to a full product launch, that we've already have solved the problems that they're counting on us, solving for them.

我告訴你，要明白試點不是為了學習如何實施，而是為了學習如何發展。因此，我們使用試點的目的是，將產品帶到我們想要的地方。話雖如此，參與其中的人們最喜歡的模組之一是您可以將 HVAC、框架、管道的所有計劃全部放入一個模組中，並且它顯示這些交易可能會相互衝突的地方並在其投入現場之前解決該衝突。尤其是建築商認為，這可以為他們帶來最大、最快的節省回報，因為它可以最大限度地減少你必須在現場快速學習的錯誤，並且領先於他們。所以這可能是我們得到最正面回饋的一個。但我們真正想做的是從前端客戶的角度解決所有問題。因此，當我們進行完整的產品發佈時，我們已經解決了他們指望我們解決的問題。

Maybe the best example of that, that Dave was just referring to is the shoppable digital twin. So that has been a core aspect of this, right? You're taking the plan, you're putting it into that 3-dimensional environment and the real bang for the buck is the shopability. They want to be able to pick a siding or a roofing or whatever and see it on the rendering, have it deimpacted with the real design, be able to quote it and shop it and buy it. In that entire experience, as you might imagine, is quite complex, right? It's challenging both technically and from a UI/UX user interface, user experience type of dynamic.

也許戴夫剛才提到的最好的例子就是可購物的數位孿生。所以這是這個的核心面，對吧？您正在製定計劃，將其放入 3 維環境中，真正物有所值的是可購買性。他們希望能夠選擇壁板或屋頂或其他任何東西，並在渲染上看到它，使其與真實設計無關，能夠報價並購買它。正如您可能想的那樣，整個經歷非常複雜，對吧？無論從技術上或從 UI/UX 使用者介面、動態使用者體驗類型來看，這都具有挑戰性。

So what we've been really focused on this summer is putting our product in front of them, right, as it stands, getting the feedback of how it works, how they're actually going to transact and interact with that tool and making the tweaks behind the scenes to really drive the technology and the functionality to meet that need state head-on. And so when Dave talks about development and using the feedback from customers on development, that's a really big one for us and super excited about what the teams are coming up with. We got to see some pilot stuff recently or some demo stuff recently, it's -- I agree with Dave, you're all going to like it.

因此，今年夏天我們真正關注的是將我們的產品放在他們面前，就目前而言，獲得關於它如何工作的反饋，他們實際上將如何與該工具進行交易和交互，並製作在幕後進行調整，以真正推動技術和功能的發展，以滿足正面的需求。因此，當 Dave 談論開發以及使用客戶的開發回饋時，這對我們來說非常重要，並且對團隊的成果感到非常興奮。我們最近看到了一些試點內容或最近的一些演示內容，我同意戴夫的觀點，你們都會喜歡它。

And our next question comes from Quinn Fredrickson with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Quinn Fredrickson 和 Baird。

Just curious on the fiscal '24 scenarios in terms of the high-end versus the low end, the swing factor there, just really rates or anything else we should be thinking about there?

只是對 24 財年的高端與低端情景、波動因素、利率或其他我們應該考慮的因素感到好奇？

No question, affordability rates in particular are in focus for us in terms of trying to predict that starts number. It's an interesting balance though. We've continued to see very healthy, very stable, as Dave referred to, both sales and production through the industry. But that question of, is there a magic number of mortgage rates that really puts a step-down type of impact on this industry, is in everybody's minds. So far, no but we're certainly keeping a close eye on it. And really what you're seeing here that we were trying to highlight a little bit before, these are different ranges that we've seen from economists. We think this encompasses what we saw from all the economists that we were gathering in the last month or 2. So certainly, we'll continue to dial this in, we'll continue to update it based on what we're seeing but that's kind that, the context in which came up with.

毫無疑問，在試圖預測開工數量時，負擔能力尤​​其是我們關注的焦點。不過，這是一個有趣的平衡。正如戴夫所說，我們繼續看到整個行業的銷售和生產都非常健康、非常穩定。但每個人都在想這樣的問題：是否存在一個神奇的抵押貸款利率數字，真正對這個行業產生逐步下降的影響。到目前為止，還沒有，但我們肯定會密切關注它。實際上，您在這裡看到的我們之前試圖強調的一點是，這些是我們從經濟學家那裡看到的不同範圍。我們認為這涵蓋了我們從上個月或上兩個月聚集的所有經濟學家那裡看到的情況。所以當然，我們將繼續對此進行調整，我們將根據我們所看到的情況繼續更新它，但那就是那種情況，是在什麼背景下提出的。

Yes. The only thing I'd add is, keep in mind, we're talking about the full year, right? We're not sure, we might have some more macro headwinds in the beginning of the year and it eases as the year goes on. But who knows? And what we hear more often than not, though, is the back half would probably be slightly better than the front half in that scenario.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，請記住，我們正在談論全年，對吧？我們不確定，今年年初我們可能會遇到更多宏觀阻力，但隨著時間的推移，這種情況會有所緩解。但誰知道呢？不過，我們經常聽到的是，在這種情況下，後半部可能會比前半部稍好。

We're ready regardless. And I think that's, that's kind of our outline here with the scenarios, is we've got a high-performing business. We're going to deliver really favorable positive numbers regardless of which way this goes. So we didn't want to hesitate to put this out there for people to contemplate because sometimes the skepticism or the fear in the market plus can become a little more than what's appropriate.

無論如何，我們已經準備好了。我認為，這就是我們這裡的場景概述，我們擁有高性能的業務。無論進展如何，我們都將提供非常有利的正數。因此，我們不想猶豫地將其放在那裡供人們思考，因為有時市場上的懷疑或恐懼可能會變得有點超出適當的範圍。

Okay. And then, on the productivity side, is there a certain target baked into these scenarios? Or is it kind of the typical 3% to 5% kind of productivity savings that you talked about at the Investor Day?

好的。那麼，在生產力方面，這些場景中是否有特定的目標？還是您在投資者日談到的那種典型的 3% 到 5% 的生產力節省？

Yes. So I'm glad you asked that question because I do want to differentiate between a couple of things. First of all, the 3% to 5% is our goal internally. So please do not ever load that into your numbers because I don't want to steer you in the wrong direction.

是的。所以我很高興你問這個問題，因為我確實想區分幾件事。首先，3%到5%是我們內部的目標。因此，請不要將其加載到您的數字中，因為我不想引導您走向錯誤的方向。

In terms of what we've been able to do, it certainly gets harder, right? I mean, we talked about it being the first couple of years of being -- harvesting the low-hanging fruit. We have a tremendous opportunity to continue to deliver productivity savings. But I think those savings become a bit more challenging, a bit more programmatic over time. So I think a moderating of the annual number is appropriate but we intend to continue to deliver on that over time. And that will be an important part of our discussion in December as well.

就我們已經能夠做的事情而言，它肯定會變得更加困難，對嗎？我的意思是，我們談到這是頭幾年——收穫唾手可得的果實。我們有巨大的機會繼續提高生產力。但我認為，隨著時間的推移，這些節省會變得更具挑戰性，也更具程序性。因此，我認為減少年度數字是適當的，但我們打算隨著時間的推移繼續實現這一目標。這也將是我們 12 月討論的重要部分。

Well, what I can say definitively, it's embedded in our culture now. I mean we have everybody in the field at all points. We offer incentives for any employee to come up with an idea and submit it. And if it's an idea that we can use to cultivate savings from, we reward that employee for that idea. So it is embedded in our culture. We have leaders from the field come together every year to set targets, set goals and try to identify initiatives that will be the primary focus. And what I'm proud about is our ability to consistently deliver savings each year.

嗯，我可以肯定地說，它現在已經融入我們的文化了。我的意思是，我們每個人都在現場。我們為任何提出想法並提交的員工提供激勵措施。如果我們可以利用這個想法來節省開支，我們就會獎勵該想法的員工。因此它已融入我們的文化中。我們每年都會邀請來自該領域的領導者齊聚一堂，制定目標並努力確定將成為主要焦點的舉措。我感到自豪的是我們每年都能持續實現節約。

And we have our next question from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Mike Dahl 提出了下一個問題。

Dave and Peter, I want to stick with multifamily and, I guess, kind of challenge the phasing and framing of a pause that then is resolved by the end of next year. I think the industry participants we talk to are starting to talk about numbers that are significantly greater declines of 30%, 40% in starts next year and no rebound and potentially even further declines in 2025. So what specifically are you embedding for multifamily? And who are you talking to? Is this kind of high-level economists like you've alluded to or industry participants in multifamily informing that view? That's kind of part 1 and part 2 has been maybe as a follow-up, just remind us how much of your business in multifamily is more tied to starts versus maybe mid- to later in the construction cycle there?

戴夫和彼得，我想堅持多戶家庭，我想，對暫停的階段和框架提出挑戰，然後在明年年底解決。我認為我們採訪的行業參與者開始談論明年開工率大幅下降 30%、40% 的數字，並且沒有反彈，甚至可能在 2025 年進一步下降。那麼，您具體為多戶型住宅嵌入了什麼？你在跟誰說話？是像您提到的這種高級經濟學家還是多戶家庭的行業參與者傳達了這種觀點？這就是第 1 部分，第 2 部分可能是後續部分，請提醒我們，您在多戶住宅中的業務有多少與開工相關，而不是在施工週期的中後期？

Well, the only thing, I guess, I want to clarify, pause. Pause means from a standpoint of even planning for and bidding now and trying to get a project underway, it doesn't necessarily translate to when we would see sales from a new project because of the 19 to 18 months of duration but -- so we're definitely anticipating a slowdown in multifamily. Peter?

好吧，我想，我想澄清的唯一一件事是，暫停。暫停意味著從現在規劃和投標以及試圖啟動專案的角度來看，它並不一定意味著我們何時會看到新專案的銷售，因為持續時間為 19 到 18 個月，但是 - 所以我們我們肯定預計多戶住宅的發展將會放緩。彼得？

Yes, yes. So I guess the comments I'd make, when we talked about a bounce back in a couple of different scenarios, Dave did refer to it, on multifamily and talked a little bit about on single family. So wanted to make sure we separate those 2 for starters.

是的是的。所以我想我會發表評論，當我們談論幾種不同情況下的反彈時，戴夫確實提到了多戶家庭，並談到了一些單戶家庭。所以想確保我們先將這兩個分開。

Multifamily, we don't know when the pause is. There's no question in our mind that, that's coming, right? We can see that because we're selling into the middle of next year already and we're seeing the declines in quotes and bids and so on.

多戶家庭，我們不知道什麼時候暫停。我們心中毫無疑問，那將會到來，對嗎？我們可以看到這一點，因為我們的銷售已經到明年年中，我們看到報價和出價等都在下降。

Now the one thing I also want to be real careful of is, we don't sell into high-rises or some of the other urban environment. That's not really our play for the most part, right? We're 5 storey and below, wood frame, multifamily structures, which we do think is going to be a bit more responsive to the housing needs that we see in the U.S. market in this day and age and some of the other dynamics that we think are favorable to that.

現在我還想真正小心的一件事是，我們不會出售高層建築或其他一些城市環境。這在很大程度上並不是我們真正的玩法，對吧？我們是 5 層及以下的木結構多戶結構建築，我們確實認為這將更能滿足當今美國市場的住房需求以及我們所關注的其他一些動態。認為對此有利。

But your comments are accurate in terms of what we were seeing. There is certainly pessimism, the higher rates have made deals and projects more difficult to pencil out and we did -- have seen a downturn. I would say at this stage, we're not seeing the numbers you've been seeing out there. Is it possible? I'm not sure. Wouldn't rule out it going anywhere. For us, though, I think our ability to do a couple of things. One is to scale our facilities, change shifts. But also the second thing is to rebalance where we put our load from a value-added products perspective. We can certainly move single-family to multifamily and vice versa, which we've been doing recently. So we'll continue to do that and ensure that we're protecting this franchise because we absolutely believe in multifamily in the long run, even if there's some cyclicality in the near term.

但就我們所看到的情況而言，您的評論是準確的。當然存在悲觀情緒，較高的利率使交易和項目更加難以完成，而我們確實看到了經濟低迷。我想說，在現階段，我們還沒有看到您所看到的數字。是否可以？我不知道。不排除它去任何地方。不過，對我們來說，我認為我們有能力做幾件事。一是擴大我們的設施，改變班次。第二件事是從增值產品的角度重新平衡我們的負載。我們當然可以將單戶住宅遷至多戶住宅，反之亦然，這是我們最近一直在做的事情。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，並確保我們保護這個特許經營權，因為從長遠來看，我們絕對相信多戶住宅，即使短期內存在一些週期性。

To your second question, which is the ratio of that multifamily business and what it's weighted towards, I would say that it's probably kind of 80% weighted towards the start and more 20% weighted towards the completion just directionally and that's because the bulk of it is trust in up-front product with a bit of it being related to millwork, which is a little closer to the completion, not at the completion, little bit closer to completion.

對於你的第二個問題，即多戶型企業的比例及其權重，我想說的是，它可能有 80% 的權重偏向於開始，超過 20% 的權重偏向於完成，這是因為其中大部分是對前期產品的信任，其中一些與木製品有關，這有點接近完成，而不是在完成時，有點接近完成。

The only thing I'd add is and why I used the term pause versus stop is, just the underlying housing demand need. I mean if they can't get into single family because of affordability concerns, multifamily is the next best option. And I think it will be relatively quick for the rent factor to be figured out where we get to a rental number that's cheaper than a mortgage, maybe more than we wanted to pay. But at the end of the day, it's the best chance I've got to get my own place. So maybe pause is too optimistic but it's something that I hold because of the overall demand that we see out there.

我唯一要補充的是，為什麼我使用「暫停」與「停止」這個詞，只是因為潛在的住房需求需求。我的意思是，如果他們因為負擔能力問題而無法進入單戶家庭，那麼多戶家庭是下一個最佳選擇。我認為租金因素的計算會相對較快，我們可以得到比抵押貸款更便宜的租金，甚至可能比我們想要支付的還要多。但歸根結底，這是我獲得自己位置的最佳機會。因此，也許暫停過於樂觀，但我之所以堅持這一點，是因為我們看到了整體需求。

Okay. Yes. I mean, now that last point, we simply agree with. I think it's just a question of kind of the financing mechanics and other things in terms of what's going to dictate kind of (inaudible) duration there and then the 5 storey and below is probably an important distinction too.

好的。是的。我的意思是，現在我們完全同意最後一點。我認為這只是融資機制和其他因素的問題，決定了那裡的（聽不清楚）持續時間，然後 5 層及以下可能也是一個重要的區別。

My second question or follow-up, which is also related on the margin side. So setting aside the overearning that you've covered kind of ad nauseam on multifamily and just thinking about kind of the core multifamily margin and mix, if we were to see your multifamily business, which is currently about 13% of sales, go to, say, 8%, 9%, 10% of sales, can you help us understand or quantify the margin impact to the total company from that type of a change in mix, again, setting aside the current overearning dynamics and just kind of that being a better-than-average core margin?

我的第二個問題或後續問題，也與保證金方面有關。因此，請拋開您在多戶型住宅上令人作嘔的超額收益，只考慮核心多戶型利潤率和組合，如果我們要查看您的多戶型業務（目前約佔銷售額的 13%），請訪問，比方說銷售額的8%、9%、10%，您能否幫助我們理解或量化這種組合變化對整個公司的利潤率影響，再次拋開當前的超額收益動態等等核心利潤率高於平均水平？

So I want to be careful here. I totally understand your question. It's a good question. I don't want to start getting into guidance for 2024. So I'll comment directionally based on some of the things we've said throughout this year. I hope it's helpful to you. I think if you go through and look at the margins that we've talked about overearnings, it's been different by quarter. You kind of average them together and you're kind of in that 150-ish range-ish, so I think that's a starting point for what we described as overearning.

所以我想在這裡小心一點。我完全理解你的問題。這是一個好問題。我不想開始討論 2024 年的指導。因此，我將根據我們今年所說的一些事情進行定向評論。我希望它對你有幫助。我認為，如果你仔細看看我們討論過的超額利潤的利潤率，你會發現每個季度都有所不同。你把它們加在一起平均，你就在 150 左右的範圍內，所以我認為這是我們所說的超額收益的起點。

Now if you see some of the numbers you're describing and a big downturn, that adds another layer of challenge to the market and capacity and competition, so that kind of -- I'll say all bets are off. That's a different model than what I'm referring to. I'm talking about this year and what we think has been unusual in terms of the overearning. But both of those will play together.

現在，如果你看到你所描述的一些數字和大幅下滑，這會為市場、產能和競爭帶來另一層挑戰，所以我會說所有的賭注都失敗了。這與我所指的模型不同。我說的是今年以及我們認為在超額收益方面不同尋常的情況。但兩者都會一起玩。

And our next question comes from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ketan Mamtora。

I was just curious, can you talk a little bit about how some of the regions are doing thus far in October. We talked about some of the product categories. But in terms of your key regions, are you seeing sort of any noticeable change in terms of one being either stronger or weaker versus the other?

我只是很好奇，您能談談一些地區 10 月迄今為止的表現嗎？我們討論了一些產品類別。但就您的關鍵區域而言，您是否看到任何明顯的變化，其中一個區域相對於另一個區域更強或更弱？

Yes, it's -- beginning of the year, definitely. As we came into this, we saw a lot sort of west to east, the markets got stronger, right? West was the worst.

是的，肯定是今年年初。當我們進入這個階段時，我們看到了很多東西從西到東，市場變得更強，對吧？西方是最糟糕的。

That changed a little bit as the year progressed. I'd say, West bottomed out and bounced a little bit. Central struggled a little longer. I think we've seen certain parts of the, especially the South Central sort of drag longer than we expected. Again, not horrible but if I'm comparing the year-over-year sales trends, they probably trailed the other markets. I don't know that there's anything meaningful in terms of differences. At this point, I think they're all pretty comparable.

隨著時間的推移，情況發生了一些變化。我想說的是，韋斯特觸底反彈了一點。中央又掙扎了一會兒。我認為我們已經看到某些地區，特別是中南部地區的拖累時間比我們預期的要長。同樣，這並不可怕，但如果我比較同比銷售趨勢，他們可能會落後於其他市場。我不知道差異有什麼意義。在這一點上，我認為它們都具有可比性。

Yes. I would say that West relatively has shown a little bit more of a balance. That's for sure. I'd say parts of Texas are flat and for sure.

是的。我想說韋斯特相對錶現出了更多的平衡。這是肯定的。我想說德克薩斯州的部分地區是平坦的，這是肯定的。

I think we're seeing a nice uptick, relative uptick in the North Central in some of those markets. But we're at the beginning of the year, the discrepancy between great and not so great was wider. It's -- yes, that has closed. It's more stable across all markets at this point from a perspective of year-over-year comparison.

我認為我們在中北部的一些市場中看到了良好的上升，相對上升。但我們正處於今年年初，優秀與不優秀之間的差距更大。是的，它已經關閉了。從同比角度來看，目前所有市場都更加穩定。

And our final question comes from Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group.

我們的最後一個問題來自湯普森研究小組的史蒂文拉姆齊。

On the 2024 market outperformance perspective, can you -- are you thinking about how to get that outperformance if it's new accounts or bigger penetration of existing accounts? Just any color on the outperformance.

從 2024 年市場優異表現的角度來看，您是否可以考慮如何在新帳戶或現有帳戶的更大滲透率下獲得優異表現？只要任何顏色就表現出色。

Yes. I mean there's a couple of key categories that we continue to run the same play. Like in football, if they can't stop the run, we're going to keep running. We're going to keep investing in and taking advantage of the need for value-added products and services in this industry.

是的。我的意思是，有幾個關鍵類別我們繼續運行相同的遊戲。就像足球比賽一樣，如果他們無法停止奔跑，我們就會繼續奔跑。我們將繼續投資並利用該行業對增值產品和服務的需求。

Builders continue to wrestle with the labor availability problems. They continue to wrestle with on-site efficiency and effectiveness. They continue to wrestle with the cost of capital for the cycle times of building a home. That's what we're good at. So we're going to continue to invest. We've got multiple plants coming online. We've got more capacity coming online in markets where we think it's really going to be taken up quickly. So that's an important piece.

建築商繼續努力解決勞動力供應問題。他們繼續努力解決現場效率和效果。他們繼續與建造房屋週期的資金成本作鬥爭。這就是我們所擅長的。所以我們將繼續投資。我們有多家工廠即將上線。我們已經在市場上投入了更多的產能，我們認為這些產能確實會很快被佔用。所以這是一個重要的部分。

The other big important piece for us is digital. We think that we already have a lead. We think we're already the easiest to do business with. We're the most efficient, we've got the best technology and we're about to take a big leap in that space that we think is going to be both hugely beneficial to our customers but also make us even more the supplier of choice and the partner of choice in this industry.

對我們來說另一個重要的部分是數位化。我們認為我們已經領先了。我們認為我們已經是最容易開展業務的了。我們是最高效的，我們擁有最好的技術，我們即將在這個領域實現巨大飛躍，我們認為這不僅會給我們的客戶帶來巨大好處，而且也會使我們成為首選的供應商以及該行業的首選合作夥伴。

The only thing I'd emphasize, is what Peter said at the very beginning. We're looking at the industry. We're seeing where our customers' pain points are and we identify those as opportunities for us. So we're trying -- and we're focusing on how we can help solve labor challenges for our customers and create opportunity for ourselves. We've got core base operations in our major markets that do that today. We're looking to expand that into additional products. There's ways we can do what we're already good at and expand that and now grow share.

我唯一要強調的是彼得一開始所說的話。我們正在關注這個行業。我們了解客戶的痛點，並將其視為我們的機會。因此，我們正在努力，我們專注於如何幫助客戶解決勞動力挑戰並為我們自己創造機會。今天，我們在主要市場的核心基地運作可以做到這一點。我們希望將其擴展到其他產品。我們可以透過多種方式做我們已經擅長的事情，並擴展它，現在增加份額。

The other thing I would add, as we have, the last couple of years been in somewhat of a maintenance mode because we have had to. We've had sales guys that were covered up and just handling the business they already had. We're going to also make a concerted effort to invest in the sales force to go out and be more hunters than we are gatherers. So those 2 things we think are realistic initiatives that will help us grab share.

我要補充的另一件事是，過去幾年我們一直處於某種維護模式，因為我們不得不這樣做。我們的銷售人員被掩蓋起來，只處理他們已有的業務。我們也將共同努力投資於銷售隊伍，讓他們更成為獵人而不是採集者。因此，我們認為這兩件事是現實的舉措，將幫助我們搶佔份額。

Okay. Helpful. And then on the 2024 scenarios, looks like the free cash flow midpoint is down about $500 million from the midpoint of the 2023 guide. What are the factors that drive the midpoint difference there between EBITDA, working capital and CapEx?

好的。有幫助。然後，在 2024 年的情境中，自由現金流中點看起來比 2023 年指南的中點下降了約 5 億美元。哪些因素導致 EBITDA、營運資本和資本支出之間存在中點差異？

Yes, you're right. The midpoint is down. Really straightforward answer on that. And hopefully, it's consistent with everything you guys know about us. And that's that, when we shrink this business, we released a tremendous amount of working capital. And when the business is stable, it's sort of flat. And when it's growing, we're going to use some working capital. We generally use a rule of thumb of about 10% incrementals and decrementals to sales as a good proxy for what happens in our working capital.

你是對的。中點向下。對此的回答非常簡單。希望這與你們所了解的關於我們的一切是一致的。就是這樣，當我們收縮這項業務時，我們釋放了大量的營運資金。當業務穩定時，它就會持平。當它成長時，我們將使用一些營運資金。我們通常使用銷售額約 10% 增量和減量的經驗法則作為我們營運資金發生的良好代表。

Obviously, you've got some puts and takes there. We've done some good work on managing through some issues that we've been talking about over the past couple of years. But the primary answer is just the working capital flex with the size of the top line.

顯然，你在那裡有一些看跌期權和看跌期權。在解決過去幾年我們一直在討論的一些問題方面，我們做了一些很好的工作。但主要的答案只是營運資金隨營收規模的變化。

And it looks like we have reached our allotted time for our Q&A session. This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

看起來我們已經達到問答環節的指定時間了。今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。