(BLDR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Builders FirstSource Fourth Quarter 2022 and Year-End Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Michael Neese, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Builders FirstSource. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Builders FirstSource 2022 年第四季度和年終收益電話會議。今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括管理層的發言和問答環節。 （操作員說明）我現在想把電話轉給 Builders FirstSource 投資者關係高級副總裁 Michael Neese 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Britney, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. With me on the call are Dave Rush, our recently appointed CEO; and Peter Jackson, our CFO.

謝謝你，布蘭妮，大家早上好。歡迎來到我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財報電話會議。與我通話的是我們最近任命的首席執行官戴夫·拉什 (Dave Rush)；和我們的首席財務官彼得傑克遜。

Today, we will review our fourth quarter and full year results. The earnings press release and investor presentation are available on our website at investors.bldr.com.

今天，我們將回顧我們的第四季度和全年業績。收益新聞稿和投資者介紹可在我們的網站 investors.bldr.com 上獲取。

We will refer to several slides from the investor presentation during our call. The results discussed today include GAAP and non-GAAP results adjusted for certain items. We provide these non-GAAP results for informational purposes and they should not be considered in isolation from the most directly comparable GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures, where applicable and the discussion of why we believe they can be useful to investors in our earnings press release, SEC filings and presentation.

我們將在通話期間參考投資者介紹中的幾張幻燈片。今天討論的結果包括針對某些項目調整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果。我們提供這些非 GAAP 結果僅供參考，不應將它們與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施分開考慮。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿、SEC 備案文件和演示文稿中找到這些非 GAAP 措施與相應 GAAP 措施的協調（如果適用）以及我們認為它們對投資者有用的原因的討論。

Our remarks in the press release, presentation and on this call contain forward-looking and cautionary statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking statements section in today's press release and in our SEC filings for various factors that could cause our actual results to differ from forward-looking statements and projections.

我們在新聞稿、演示文稿和本次電話會議中的評論包含《私人證券訴訟改革法》含義內的前瞻性和警示性陳述以及對未來結果的預測。請查看今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的前瞻性陳述部分，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述和預測不同的各種因素。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給戴夫。

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. Before we get into the results, I'd like to thank the Board of Directors for the opportunity to serve as the CEO of Builders FirstSource and for trusting me to lead this great organization. Also want to thank all of the BFS field leaders and team members for their support, which has been inspiring.

謝謝你，邁克。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。在我們得出結果之前，我要感謝董事會給我機會擔任 Builders FirstSource 的首席執行官，並信任我來領導這個偉大的組織。還要感謝所有 BFS 領域領導和團隊成員的支持，這一直鼓舞人心。

I come from a background in finance, having spent the first 18 years of my career in various financial roles from Controller to CFO. Over my 23 years with BFS, I've been fortunate to have had a variety of operational roles, including region oversight primary responsibility for both the ProBuild and BMC integrations and most recently, leadership of our enterprise-wide initiatives as EVP of our Strategic Management Office.

我有金融背景，在我職業生涯的前 18 年裡擔任過從財務總監到首席財務官的各種財務職務。在 BFS 工作的 23 年裡，我有幸擔任過各種運營角色，包括主要負責 ProBuild 和 BMC 集成的區域監督，以及最近作為戰略管理執行副總裁領導我們的企業範圍計劃辦公室。

I believe my experience and industry knowledge will be a strong basis to build on our success of creating long-term value for shareholders. Now let's turn to the business results. Macroeconomic factors will undoubtedly continue to create headlines this year. However, with our exceptional and seasoned team, strong balance sheet, an industry-leading platform, we are in a great position to win in any environment.

我相信我的經驗和行業知識將成為我們成功為股東創造長期價值的堅實基礎。現在讓我們來看看業務結果。宏觀經濟因素無疑將繼續成為今年的頭條新聞。然而，憑藉我們出色且經驗豐富的團隊、強大的資產負債表和行業領先的平台，我們有能力在任何環境中取勝。

We have a field leadership team with over 30 years average experience in the industry. They have been through similar macroeconomic environments to the ones we are currently facing today, which gives me great confidence in our ability to manage business changes with quick and decisive action as required. We have maintained very low leverage, providing us with maximum flexibility to deal with any scenario, and we continue to leverage our footprint, our scale and our product portfolio to outcompete in the market. Let's turn to our long-term strategic priorities on Slide 4 for a moment.

我們擁有一支在該行業平均擁有超過 30 年經驗的現場領導團隊。他們經歷了與我們今天所面臨的類似的宏觀經濟環境，這讓我對我們根據需要採取快速果斷的行動來管理業務變化的能力充滿信心。我們一直保持非常低的槓桿率，為我們提供最大的靈活性來應對任何情況，我們將繼續利用我們的足跡、我們的規模和我們的產品組合在市場競爭中勝出。讓我們暫時轉向幻燈片 4 上的長期戰略重點。

As we navigate a changing landscape, we see no need to alter our long-term strategy, and we remain focused on expanding organically in value-added products and services, driving operational excellence, continuing to build our high-performing culture and growing through strategic tuck-in acquisitions.

當我們駕馭不斷變化的環境時，我們認為沒有必要改變我們的長期戰略，我們仍然專注於有機地擴展增值產品和服務，推動卓越運營，繼續建立我們的高績效文化並通過戰略發展收購。

On Slide 5, you can see our continued emphasis on the strategic priorities was key to our record full year 2022 net sales of $22.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.4 billion. Top line growth, value-added product mix improvement and disciplined cost management resulted in our adjusted EBITDA margin increasing 390 basis points to 19.3%. The combination of the increased profitability and share buybacks supported 81% growth in full year 2022 adjusted EPS.

在幻燈片 5 上，您可以看到我們對戰略重點的持續重視是我們 2022 年全年淨銷售額創紀錄的 227 億美元和調整後 EBITDA 為 44 億美元的關鍵。收入增長、增值產品組合改善和嚴格的成本管理使我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率增加 390 個基點至 19.3%。盈利能力提高和股票回購相結合，支持 2022 年全年調整後每股收益增長 81%。

On Slide 6, you can see that we delivered a 6.6% increase in core organic sales, including nearly 21% growth in our higher-margin value-added products. We are extremely pleased to deliver $123 million in productivity savings for the year, exceeding our $100 million target as we drive improvement across a variety of projects and leverage our BFS 1-TEAM Operating System.

在幻燈片 6 中，您可以看到我們的核心有機銷售額增長了 6.6%，其中高利潤增值產品增長了近 21%。我們非常高興在今年實現了 1.23 億美元的生產力節約，超過了我們 1 億美元的目標，因為我們推動了各種項目的改進並利用了我們的 BFS 1-TEAM 操作系統。

We remain focused on the importance of controlling SG&A and other expenses. This includes efficiency -- efficient capacity utilization, ongoing optimization of our footprint and balancing the need for variable cost reductions and future capacity. Importantly, we have rationalized over 30 locations during the last year while maintaining coverage and not exiting any markets.

我們仍然關注控制 SG&A 和其他費用的重要性。這包括效率——高效的產能利用、持續優化我們的足跡以及平衡可變成本削減和未來產能的需求。重要的是，我們在去年對 30 多個地點進行了合理化調整，同時保持覆蓋範圍並且沒有退出任何市場。

I'm extremely proud of how we continue to demonstrate our high-performing culture through improved safety by lowering our recordable incident rate by approximately 22% year-over-year, which marks the second consecutive year of improvement. We also continue to invest in training, enhanced DEI initiatives and improved employee benefits to better attract and retain high-performing talent.

我為我們如何通過提高安全性繼續展示我們的高績效文化感到非常自豪，我們將可記錄的事故率同比降低了約 22%，這是連續第二年取得進步。我們還繼續投資於培訓、加強 DEI 計劃和改善員工福利，以更好地吸引和留住高績效人才。

Turning to M&A on Slide 7. In addition to our focus on profitable core organic growth, we continue to execute tuck-in acquisitions aligned with our strategy, completing 6 acquisitions in 2022. Although the M&A pipeline has slowed in the current macro environment, we continue to be acquisitive while remaining disciplined in our approach. We are committed to expanding our geographic footprint in key markets with a particular emphasis on enhancing our value-added portfolio to better serve our customers, diversify our end market exposure and leverage our technological capabilities.

轉到幻燈片 7 上的併購。除了我們專注於盈利的核心有機增長外，我們繼續執行符合我們戰略的收購，在 2022 年完成了 6 項收購。儘管在當前的宏觀環境下併購渠道有所放緩，但我們繼續收購，同時在我們的方法中保持紀律。我們致力於擴大我們在主要市場的地理足跡，特別強調增強我們的增值產品組合，以更好地為我們的客戶服務，分散我們的終端市場風險並利用我們的技術能力。

This is evidenced by our recent acquisitions, including Pima Door and Supply in the fourth quarter, which expands our millwork footprint in the Phoenix area. And earlier this month, we acquired Noltex Truss, a 5-location truss manufacturer providing building components to the single and multifamily markets throughout Texas.

我們最近的收購證明了這一點，包括第四季度的 Pima Door 和 Supply，這擴大了我們在鳳凰城地區的木製品足跡。本月早些時候，我們收購了 Noltex Truss，這是一家擁有 5 個工廠的桁架製造商，為整個德克薩斯州的單戶和多戶市場提供建築組件。

This tuck-in acquisition further extends our leading position in value-added products across the state. We are excited to welcome both Pima and Noltex with their long-standing customer relationships and track record of profitable growth to the BFS family.

此次收購進一步擴大了我們在全州增值產品方面的領先地位。我們很高興地歡迎 Pima 和 Noltex 與他們長期的客戶關係和盈利增長記錄加入 BFS 家族。

The still highly fragmented nature of our industry supports our ambition to invest $500 million in M&A per year on average for the next several years. Moving to Slide 8 and looking at our capital allocation in aggregate for 2022, we deployed approximately $3.5 billion of capital towards organic growth investments tuck-in M&A and share repurchases and remain on track to achieve the goal we established at our 2021 Investor Day of deploying $7 billion to $10 billion from 2022 to 2025. We will continue to closely monitor our customer sentiment, which currently suggests a challenging year ahead.

我們行業仍然高度分散的性質支持我們在未來幾年平均每年投資 5 億美元進行併購的雄心。轉到幻燈片 8，看看我們 2022 年的總體資本配置，我們部署了大約 35 億美元的資本用於有機增長投資，包括併購和股票回購，並繼續按計劃實現我們在 2021 年投資者日部署的目標從 2022 年到 2025 年為 70 億至 100 億美元。我們將繼續密切關注我們的客戶情緒，目前這表明未來一年充滿挑戰。

During the fourth quarter, we saw a slowdown in average daily sales, which has continued into the first quarter. Higher mortgage rates and affordability challenge continue to be headwinds.

在第四季度，我們看到平均每日銷售額放緩，並一直持續到第一季度。更高的抵押貸款利率和承受能力的挑戰仍然是不利因素。

On Slide 9, we outlined the benefits of our flexible business model for dynamic operating environment, such as the one we're currently experiencing. As we have discussed, we are actively managing the business as conditions indicate, and we are acting decisively wherever we see decelerating demand.

在幻燈片 9 上，我們概述了我們靈活的業務模型對動態操作環境的好處，例如我們目前正在體驗的環境。正如我們所討論的那樣，我們正在根據情況積極管理業務，並且在我們發現需求減速時採取果斷行動。

Our focus is on effectively managing costs through our variable expense structure to match cost with volumes. We are optimizing capacity and reducing discretionary spend without impairing our ability to maximize the recovery when this turns the corner.

我們的重點是通過我們的可變費用結構有效地管理成本，使成本與數量相匹配。我們正在優化產能並減少可自由支配的支出，同時不會削弱我們在疫情轉危為安時最大限度地實現復甦的能力。

Stepping back, we realized affordability has been an increasing concern over the past several years as home prices and rates have increased significantly. We are working on making housing more attainable by investing in value-added products, productivity and digital capabilities to reduce cycle times and make home building more efficient.

退後一步，我們意識到在過去幾年中，隨著房價和利率大幅上漲，負擔能力越來越受到關注。我們正致力於通過投資增值產品、生產力和數字功能來縮短週期時間並提高住宅建設效率，從而使住房更容易實現。

For example, in 2022. We invested approximately $125 million in CapEx supporting our value-added product growth and digital strategy. Going forward, we will continue to prioritize our investments in our fleet value-added technology and digital innovations. Together, these initiatives will help lower total cost improve affordability and allow more people to buy homes.

例如，在 2022 年。我們在資本支出上投資了大約 1.25 億美元，以支持我們的增值產品增長和數字戰略。展望未來，我們將繼續優先投資於我們的車隊增值技術和數字創新。總之，這些舉措將有助於降低總成本，提高負擔能力，讓更多人買房。

We are committed to strategically accelerate our leading market position and deliver on our overall value proposition. -- and we will continue to execute while keeping our focus on providing the best possible service to our customers.

我們致力於從戰略上加快我們領先的市場地位，並實現我們的整體價值主張。 -- 我們將繼續執行，同時繼續專注於為我們的客戶提供最好的服務。

Now let's turn to Slide 10 to discuss our primary role in the digital transformation of the homebuilding industry.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 10，討論我們在住宅建築行業數字化轉型中的主要作用。

We have a long-term commitment to investing in digital innovations and technologies that we believe will drive greater efficiency across homebuilding and enhance our product offerings. On the homebuilder software side, we are executing our development plan and integrating that with our BFS operations through our digital sales teams.

我們長期致力於投資數字創新和技術，我們相信這將提高整個住宅建築的效率並增強我們的產品供應。在住宅建築商軟件方面，我們正在執行我們的開發計劃，並通過我們的數字銷售團隊將其與我們的 BFS 運營相結合。

We're excited to have reached a significant milestone in launching the pilot of our new bldr.com platform. This platform will introduce our homebuilder customers to easy-to-use digital tools to virtually design and build their homes. These include key capabilities such as planned intake and markup, home configuration, conflict identification material estimating and ordering and job site scheduling.

我們很高興在啟動我們新的 bldr.com 平台試點方面達到了一個重要的里程碑。該平台將向我們的房屋建築商客戶介紹易於使用的數字工具，以虛擬方式設計和建造他們的房屋。這些包括關鍵功能，例如計劃攝入量和標記、家庭配置、衝突識別材料估計和訂購以及工作現場調度。

In January, we began communicating this release to add both our BFS National Event and the International Builder Show. At both events, we received overwhelmingly positive feedback affirming the need for this innovative technology in our industry.

一月份，我們開始傳達此版本以添加我們的 BFS 國家活動和國際建築展。在這兩次活動中，我們都收到了壓倒性的積極反饋，肯定了我們行業對這種創新技術的需求。

We are launching the current mybldr.com capabilities to 40 pilot customers across 4 markets. This will allow us to assess, collaborate with and provide new solutions to our customers in a way that aligns our BFS sales and operations teams. We will add new features with monthly releases throughout 2023, as we build and scale our end-to-end digital homebuilding platform.

我們正在向 4 個市場的 40 個試點客戶推出當前的 mybldr.com 功能。這將使我們能夠以與我們的 BFS 銷售和運營團隊保持一致的方式評估、合作並為我們的客戶提供新的解決方案。隨著我們構建和擴展端到端數字住宅建設平台，我們將在整個 2023 年每月發布新功能。

The overall digital strategy remains on schedule, and we are on track to gain an incremental $1 billion in sales by 2026. Last month, at our national event, we announced our inaugural BFS Hall of Fame Class for 2022, the culmination of our annual employee recognition program and a highlight of our people-first culture. These distinguished individuals represent the best of our frontline team members, but there is 1 person I would like to highlight today, Frank Loria.

整體數字戰略如期進行，我們有望在 2026 年之前實現 10 億美元的銷售額增量。上個月，在我們的全國活動中，我們宣布了 2022 年首屆 BFS 名人堂課程，這是我們年度員工的巔峰之作表彰計劃和我們以人為本的文化的亮點。這些傑出人士代表了我們一線團隊成員中最優秀的，但今天我要強調一個人，弗蘭克·洛里亞 (Frank Loria)。

Frank is a fleet and compliance manager out of Southern California, who's been with the company and its predecessors for an impressive 45 years. He oversees our fleet and machinery across 11 locations. Frank takes great pride in keeping everything running consistently and with minimal downtime.

Frank 是南加州的一名車隊和合規經理，他在公司及其前身工作了令人印象深刻的 45 年。他負責監督我們在 11 個地點的車隊和機器。 Frank 非常自豪能夠讓一切始終如一地運行並且停機時間最少。

As manager emphasized, "Frank's knowledge of everything mechanical is simply unrivaled." on behalf of the leadership team, I want to thank Frank and the other Hall of Fame inductees for their tremendous contribution.

正如經理強調的那樣，“弗蘭克對所有機械知識的了解簡直無與倫比。”我代表領導團隊，感謝弗蘭克和其他名人堂成員所做的巨大貢獻。

I will conclude by saying that we have the best team to win in a challenging environment. I am confident in our strategies and our ability to deliver long-term results for our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Peter to discuss our fourth quarter financial results in greater detail.

最後我要說的是，我們擁有在充滿挑戰的環境中取勝的最佳團隊。我對我們的戰略和為股東帶來長期成果的能力充滿信心。我現在將電話轉給彼得，更詳細地討論我們第四季度的財務業績。

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. I want to congratulate Dave on his appointment as our new CEO. I've worked with him for many years and couldn't be happier for him and for this company. I know he will lead us to continued growth and success. I also want to join Dave in thanking our team members for delivering a record year of performance. We sincerely appreciate your hard work and dedication to delivering excellent service to our customers day in and day out.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家早上好。我要祝賀戴夫被任命為我們的新任首席執行官。我和他一起工作了很多年，我為他和這家公司感到無比高興。我知道他會帶領我們不斷成長並取得成功。我還想和 Dave 一起感謝我們的團隊成員創造了創紀錄的年度業績。我們衷心感謝您日復一日地為我們的客戶提供優質服務的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

I'm proud to report that we delivered solid financial results in the fourth quarter to cap off a record year for the business. We continue to manage through the complex operating environment with a proactive mindset and a disciplined approach. We expect that the structural enhancements we have made in our business over the past decade will help us mitigate the impact of softer housing demand and inflationary headwinds.

我很自豪地報告，我們在第四季度取得了穩健的財務業績，為該業務創紀錄的一年畫上了句號。我們繼續以積極主動的心態和紀律嚴明的方法應對複雜的運營環境。我們預計，過去十年我們在業務中所做的結構性改進將幫助我們減輕住房需求疲軟和通脹逆風的影響。

Our ample liquidity, low leverage and disciplined cost management, provides significant financial firepower to continue to strategically and opportunistically grow our business. I will cover 3 topics with you this morning.

我們充足的流動性、低杠桿率和嚴格的成本管理，提供了強大的財務火力，以繼續戰略性和機會性地發展我們的業務。今天早上我將與您討論 3 個主題。

First, I'll recap our fourth quarter results. Second, I'll provide an update on capital deployment. And finally, I'll discuss our first quarter guidance and lay out illustrative full year scenarios. Let's begin by reviewing our fourth quarter performance on Slide 12.

首先，我將回顧一下我們第四季度的業績。其次，我將提供有關資本部署的最新信息。最後，我將討論我們的第一季度指導並列出說明性的全年情景。讓我們首先回顧一下我們在幻燈片 12 上的第四季度業績。

We delivered $4.4 billion in net sales. Core organic growth decreased by 8%, attributable to a nearly 14% decline in single family at slowing demand compared to strong fourth quarter 2021 led to difficult comps. Both multifamily and repair/remodel and other increased by almost 15%.

我們實現了 44 億美元的淨銷售額。核心有機增長下降了 8%，原因是與強勁的 2021 年第四季度相比，需求放緩導致單個家庭下降了近 14%，導致競爭困難。多戶住宅和維修/改造以及其他都增加了近 15%。

Multifamily was driven by a strong rental market and resulting backlog. R&R and other growth was mainly attributable to increased sales focus and capacity versus prior year. 2 fewer selling days had an unfavorable impact of roughly 3% on net sales. The cumulative effect of our acquisitions over the past year contributed approximately 8 percentage points of growth to net sales.

多戶住宅是由強勁的租賃市場和由此產生的積壓推動的。 R&R 和其他增長主要歸因於與上一年相比增加的銷售重點和產能。減少 2 個銷售日對淨銷售額產生了大約 3% 的不利影響。我們過去一年收購的累積效應為淨銷售額貢獻了約 8 個百分點的增長。

Value-added products saw another quarter of growth. Compared to total fourth quarter starts, which decreased by 16%, core organic sales in the category increased by 0.6% and reflecting the macro trend of value-added product adoption and our success in the category. I'm very happy to highlight value-added products represented over half of our revenue in the quarter, a great proof point of success towards our goal of being the supplier of choice for these valuable high-growth products.

增值產品又出現一個季度的增長。與第四季度總開工量下降 16% 相比，該類別的核心有機銷售額增長了 0.6%，反映了增值產品採用的宏觀趨勢以及我們在該類別中的成功。我很高興強調增值產品占我們本季度收入的一半以上，這是我們成功實現成為這些有價值的高增長產品的首選供應商的目標的一個很好的證明。

During the fourth quarter, gross profit was $1.5 billion, or roughly comparable to the prior year period. Gross margin increased 200 basis points to 34.1%, mainly due to the increased mix of value-added products. SG&A grew 11% to $958.7 million, mainly due to additional operating expenses from companies acquired in the last year, inflation and other costs.

第四季度，毛利潤為 15 億美元，與去年同期大致相當。毛利率增長 200 個基點至 34.1%，主要是由於增值產品組合的增加。 SG&A 增長 11% 至 9.587 億美元，這主要是由於去年收購的公司的額外運營費用、通貨膨脹和其他成本。

Acquisitions represented over 60% of the increase in SG&A. As a percentage of net sales, total SG&A increased by 340 basis points to 22%. We remain focused on disciplined cost management and are taking appropriate actions in response to volume dynamics on a market-by-market basis. These actions include footprint rationalization, discretionary spending reductions and cutting headcount and overtime.

收購佔 SG&A 增長的 60% 以上。作為淨銷售額的百分比，SG&A 總額增加了 340 個基點，達到 22%。我們仍然專注於嚴格的成本管理，並在逐個市場的基礎上採取適當的行動來應對數量動態。這些行動包括足跡合理化、減少可自由支配的支出以及裁員和加班。

As we have stated in the past, approximately 70% of SG&A expense is variable. Within that 70%, roughly 20% of sales is driven by volume-based formulas is like commissions and bonuses. The remaining 50% of sales is where we are actively managing our operations. We are striking the right balance between resizing operations based on changes in volume and protecting capacity for future growth.

正如我們過去所說，大約 70% 的 SG&A 費用是可變的。在這 70% 中，大約 20% 的銷售額是由基於數量的公式驅動的，例如佣金和獎金。其餘 50% 的銷售額是我們積極管理運營的地方。我們正在根據數量變化調整運營規模和保護未來增長的容量之間取得適當的平衡。

Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $700 million, a decline of $97 million, primarily due to declines in core organic sales and commodities, partially offset by M&A. Importantly, adjusted EBITDA margin was 16%. This represents the second best fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin in our history, reflecting our focused execution and expense control.

調整後的 EBITDA 約為 7 億美元，減少了 9700 萬美元，這主要是由於核心有機銷售額和商品的下降，部分被併購所抵消。重要的是，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 16%。這是我們歷史上第二好的第四季度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，反映了我們專注的執行和費用控制。

Adjusted net income was $470.8 million, down from an adjusted net income of $532.4 million in the prior year quarter, attributable to a decrease in net sales and higher SG&A expense. Adjusted earnings per diluted share was $3.21 compared to $2.78 in the prior year period. The increase reflects our more than $650 million in accretive share repurchases investments during the quarter.

調整後的淨收入為 4.708 億美元，低於去年同期的調整後淨收入 5.324 億美元，原因是淨銷售額下降和 SG&A 費用增加。調整後每股攤薄收益為 3.21 美元，上年同期為 2.78 美元。這一增長反映了我們在本季度增加了超過 6.5 億美元的股票回購投資。

To put this in perspective, the repurchase equates to $0.21 or nearly half of the $0.43 change. Now let's turn to our cash flow, balance sheet and liquidity on Slide 14. Our fourth quarter operating cash flow was approximately $971 million, mainly attributable to increased profitability due to effective pricing and cost management as well as disciplined working capital management.

從這個角度來看，回購相當於 0.21 美元或幾乎是 0.43 美元變化的一半。現在讓我們看看幻燈片 14 上的現金流量、資產負債表和流動性。我們第四季度的運營現金流量約為 9.71 億美元，這主要歸因於有效定價和成本管理以及嚴格的營運資金管理帶來的盈利能力提高。

Generally, we see working capital as an incremental or decrement of approximately 10% of sales. Capital expenditures were $131 million. All in, we delivered robust free cash flow of approximately $840 million. For the year, we generated record free cash flow of approximately $3.3 billion, representing a free cash flow yield of 30.6%. Operating cash flow return on invested capital was 41.1% for the year ended December 31.

通常，我們將營運資金視為銷售額的大約 10% 的增量或減量。資本支出為 1.31 億美元。總而言之，我們交付了約 8.4 億美元的強勁自由現金流。這一年，我們產生了創紀錄的約 33 億美元的自由現金流，相當於 30.6% 的自由現金流收益率。截至 12 月 31 日止年度，投資資本的營運現金流回報率為 41.1%。

Our 2022 net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 0.7x and approximately 1.3x our estimated 2022 base business EBITDA, well within our stated target of 1 to 2x. Excluding our ABL, we have no long-term debt maturities until 2030.

我們 2022 年淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率約為 0.7 倍，約為我們估計的 2022 年基本業務 EBITDA 的 1.3 倍，完全在我們既定的 1 至 2 倍目標範圍內。不包括我們的 ABL，我們在 2030 年之前沒有長期債務到期。

At quarter end, our total liquidity was $1.5 billion, consisting of $1.4 billion in net borrowing availability under the revolving credit facility and approximately $100 million of cash on hand.

截至季度末，我們的流動資金總額為 15 億美元，包括循環信貸額度下的 14 億美元淨借款和大約 1 億美元的手頭現金。

Moving to capital deployment. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 10.2 million shares for $651 million at an average stock price of $64.17 per share.

轉向資本部署。第四季度，我們以每股 64.17 美元的平均股價回購了約 1020 萬股股票，價值 6.51 億美元。

In addition, we have repurchased approximately 900,000 shares so far in the first quarter of 2023 for $61 million at an average stock price of $65.94 During 2022, we repurchased almost 42 million shares for $2.6 billion, and we have more than $900 million remaining in our authorization.

此外，我們在 2023 年第一季度以 65.94 美元的平均股價回購了約 900,000 股股票，價格為 6,100 萬美元。在 2022 年，我們以 26 億美元的價格回購了近 4,200 萬股股票，我們的剩餘資產超過 9 億美元。授權。

In total, we have repurchased more than 1/3 of our outstanding shares in the last 18 months. We remain disciplined stewards of capital, and we'll continue to look for inorganic growth opportunities and to repurchase shares at an attractive value. We maintain a fortress balance sheet, which will help us withstand a slower housing environment and keep us well positioned for long-term growth.

在過去的 18 個月裡，我們總共回購了超過 1/3 的流通股。我們仍然是紀律嚴明的資本管家，我們將繼續尋找無機增長機會並以有吸引力的價值回購股票。我們保持著穩固的資產負債表，這將幫助我們抵禦放緩的住房環境，並讓我們為長期增長做好準備。

Turning to Slide 15. We continue to believe it is important to assess our results using a base business methodology. During 2022, base business revenue grew 13% while base business adjusted EBITDA increased 28% year-over-year. This approach showcases the underlying strength and profitability of our company by normalizing commodity volatility.

轉到幻燈片 15。我們仍然認為使用基本業務方法評估我們的結果很重要。 2022 年，基礎業務收入增長 13%，基礎業務調整後 EBITDA 同比增長 28%。這種方法通過使商品波動正常化來展示我們公司的潛在實力和盈利能力。

As a reminder, our base business definition assumes normalized commodity margins and static commodity prices at $400 per 1,000 board feet. Overall, I'm proud that we delivered solid results in the fourth quarter despite slowing housing starts. Additionally, our record results for the full year reflect our differentiated platform, talented team members and intense focus on execution. I'm confident that through our leading footprint, investments in value-added products and ongoing efficiency initiatives that we can continue to gain share, grow our value-added products and deploy capital.

提醒一下，我們的基本業務定義假設標準化商品利潤率和靜態商品價格為每 1,000 板英尺 400 美元。總的來說，儘管房屋開工放緩，但我很自豪我們在第四季度取得了可觀的業績。此外，我們全年創紀錄的業績反映了我們差異化的平台、才華橫溢的團隊成員和對執行的高度關注。我相信，通過我們領先的足跡、對增值產品的投資和持續的效率舉措，我們可以繼續獲得市場份額、發展我們的增值產品並部署資本。

Now I would like to discuss our guidance on Slide 16. Given the current challenging conditions in the housing market amid elevated mortgage rates and general uncertainty in economic conditions, we are amending our guidance disclosures at this time to align with our public customers. Customers of all types and sizes have expressed their uncertainty about starts in the year ahead.

現在，我想討論我們對幻燈片 16 的指導。鑑於抵押貸款利率高企和經濟狀況普遍存在不確定性，房地產市場目前面臨挑戰，我們此時正在修改我們的指導披露，以與我們的公眾客戶保持一致。各種類型和規模的客戶都表達了他們對來年開工的不確定性。

As a result, we have decided to only provide guidance for the first quarter of 2023, as shown on Slide 16. We will reassess full year guidance for actual and base business as the year progresses.

因此，我們決定僅提供 2023 年第一季度的指導，如幻燈片 16 所示。隨著時間的推移，我們將重新評估實際和基礎業務的全年指導。

For the first quarter, we expect net sales to be in the range of $3.4 billion to $3.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $400 million to $440 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 11.7% to 11.9%. I would also note that the first quarter guide assumes gross margins to be in the 30% to 32% range.

對於第一季度，我們預計淨銷售額將在 34 億美元至 37 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 將在 4 億美元至 4.4 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 11.7% 至 11.9% 之間。我還要指出，第一季度指南假設毛利率在 30% 至 32% 的範圍內。

In addition, given the 2022 starts profile, we expect comparisons to prior year will be most difficult in the first 2 quarters. Our guidance includes the following full year assumptions, which are also outlined in the earnings release and on Slide 17.

此外，鑑於 2022 年的開工情況，我們預計前兩個季度與上一年的比較將是最困難的。我們的指導包括以下全年假設，這些假設也在收益發布和幻燈片 17 中概述。

We expect total capital expenditures in the range of $300 million to $350 million. This includes continued investments in value-added products. And we continue to invest in our technology and infrastructure, and we will migrate to one integrated ERP platform in the coming years.

我們預計總資本支出在 3 億至 3.5 億美元之間。這包括對增值產品的持續投資。我們繼續投資於我們的技術和基礎設施，我們將在未來幾年遷移到一個集成的 ERP 平台。

I'll remind you that the related increases in CapEx and OpEx are included in our guidance and our 2025 financial projections from our December 2021 Investor Day. We expect interest expense in the range of $150 million to $170 million, an effective tax rate between 23% and 25%, depreciation and amortization expenses in the range of $525 million to $550 million. No change in the number of selling days, and we expect to deliver between $90 million and $110 million in productivity savings.

我會提醒您，我們在 2021 年 12 月投資者日發布的指南和 2025 年財務預測中包含了資本支出和運營支出的相關增長。我們預計利息支出在 1.5 億美元至 1.7 億美元之間，有效稅率在 23% 至 25% 之間，折舊和攤銷費用在 5.25 億美元至 5.5 億美元之間。銷售天數沒有變化，我們預計將節省 9000 萬至 1.1 億美元的生產力。

We recognize that it's important to think about potential outcomes for the full year. So on Slide 18, we provide a scenario analysis to demonstrate how we are positioned to generate resilient financial performance across a range of potential housing market and commodity conditions.

我們認識到考慮全年的潛在結果很重要。因此，在幻燈片 18 中，我們提供了一個情景分析，以展示我們如何定位以在一系列潛在的住房市場和商品條件下產生具有彈性的財務業績。

I will reiterate that we are not providing full year guidance, but this scenario analysis should help clarify our range of performance expectations and demonstrate the capability of our business to achieve strong adjusted EBITDA margins in 2023.

我要重申，我們不會提供全年指導，但這種情景分析應該有助於闡明我們的業績預期範圍，並證明我們的業務有能力在 2023 年實現強勁的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

To summarize, we are exceptionally well positioned to withstand a slowdown in house while continuing to drive our strategic goals. We have a strong balance sheet and no long-term debt maturities until 2030. We are operating in a proactive fashion and are taking the necessary steps to manage through this downturn with a relentless focus on execution. I'm confident our best-in-class operating platform will continue to generate solid free cash flow, which provides further financial flexibility. We will also diligently deploy capital and work to maximize long-term shareholder value.

總而言之，我們處於非常有利的地位，可以在繼續推動我們的戰略目標的同時承受內部放緩。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表，並且在 2030 年之前沒有到期的長期債務。我們正在以積極主動的方式運營，並正在採取必要的措施來應對這次經濟低迷，同時不懈地關注執行力。我相信我們一流的運營平台將繼續產生穩定的自由現金流，從而提供進一步的財務靈活性。我們還將努力配置資本，努力實現股東長期價值最大化。

With that, let me turn the call back over to Dave for his closing remarks.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉回給戴夫，聽取他的結束語。

Thanks, Peter. Let me provide a few final thoughts. Having spent the greater part of my career with BFS, I firmly believe in our differentiated platform, which is the strongest it's ever been and will enable us to outperform in any environment. We have a clear strategy that we're continuing to execute. We generate strong cash flow, and we have significant opportunities to invest that cash to expand our value-added products and solutions, execute strategic acquisitions and return capital to shareholders.

謝謝，彼得。讓我提供一些最後的想法。在 BFS 度過了我職業生涯的大部分時間後，我堅信我們差異化的平台，這是有史以來最強大的平台，將使我們能夠在任何環境中表現出色。我們有一個明確的戰略，我們將繼續執行。我們產生強勁的現金流，我們有大量機會投資這些現金來擴展我們的增值產品和解決方案，執行戰略收購併向股東返還資本。

Through it all, we remain focused on operational excellence to continue to drive increased safety, productivity and profitability. 2023 will be a challenging year for our industry, but I'm confident in our talented team members who have clearly demonstrated their ability to execute and win in any market.

通過這一切，我們仍然專注於卓越運營，以繼續推動提高安全性、生產力和盈利能力。 2023 年對我們的行業來說將是充滿挑戰的一年，但我對我們才華橫溢的團隊成員充滿信心，他們已經清楚地展示了他們在任何市場上的執行能力和取勝能力。

Thank you again for joining us today. Operator, let's open the call now for questions.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。接線員，讓我們現在打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Trey Grooms with Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們將與斯蒂芬斯一起接受 Trey Grooms 的第一個問題。

Dave, congrats on your new role. Look forward to working with you.

戴夫，祝賀你擔任新角色。期待與您合作。

Thanks, Trey.

謝謝，特雷。

Sure. So I guess, first, multifamily and R&R, very strong in the quarter. Can you talk about how these 2 segments, the multifamily and R&R, are trending through 1Q and how you're thinking about these business lines kind of as we progress through '23?

當然。所以我想，首先，多戶家庭和 R&R 在本季度非常強勁。你能談談這兩個部分，多戶型和 R&R，在第一季度的趨勢如何，以及你如何看待這些業務線，就像我們在 23 年取得進展一樣？

Thanks, Trey. That's a great question. I'll start with R&R. R&R expanded in the current year primarily because we had capacity constraints in 2021 and '22, just taking care of our existing business. Once those capacity constraints waned, our ability to focus on that segment again allowed us to go after new customers and try to generate more R&R business.

謝謝，特雷。這是一個很好的問題。我將從 R&R 開始。 R&R 在本年度擴大主要是因為我們在 2021 年和 22 年的產能受到限制，只能照顧我們現有的業務。一旦這些產能限制消失，我們再次專注於該細分市場的能力使我們能夠追求新客戶並嘗試產生更多的 R&R 業務。

With multifamily, it's been primarily through acquisition. We did the Truss way acquisition. And even recently with Noltex, they have a good multifamily segment as well as panel truss from the prior year. That has allowed us to grow in that segment at a time when multifamily is actually experiencing one of their stronger years. So it's a very nice complement to the offset of single family having a little bit of headwinds right now. So that's primarily how we grew in both those segments.

對於多戶家庭，它主要是通過收購來實現的。我們進行了 Truss 方式採集。甚至最近與 Noltex 一起，他們也有一個很好的多戶家庭細分市場以及前一年的面板桁架。這使我們能夠在多戶家庭實際上正在經歷他們最強大的一年的時候在這一領域取得增長。因此，這是對目前有一點逆風的單身家庭抵消的一個很好的補充。所以這主要是我們在這兩個領域的增長方式。

Perfect. And I guess my next question, you laid out, Peter, you laid out expectations for over $1 billion in free cash flow if memory serves me right. And I think that was in kind of this 800,000 single-family start environment. First off, is that still the expectation? And then how does free cash flow or how do you expect free cash flow to move relative to that sensitivity table you gave us in the deck?

完美的。我想我的下一個問題是，彼得，如果我沒記錯的話，你提出了超過 10 億美元的自由現金流的預期。我認為這就是這種 800,000 單戶家庭的啟動環境。首先，這仍然是期望嗎？然後自由現金流如何或您期望自由現金流如何相對於您在甲板上給我們的敏感度表移動？

Yes. Thanks, Trey. So that's a good question. There's a lot going on in the market, and so we've stayed away from the cash flow including it in the full year scenarios.

是的。謝謝，特雷。所以這是一個很好的問題。市場上發生了很多事情，所以我們一直遠離現金流，包括全年情景中的現金流。

But yes, the short answer to your question is we still think it's north of $1 billion in free cash flow, assuming about a 20% starts down scenario and a reasonably steady commodity environment. As you know, those -- both of those things can move our working capital quite a bit. Generally speaking, we still believe that, that roughly 10% incremental or decremental working capital, the sales is a good way to think about us. So given the dynamics around what commodities are doing, kind of what starts are doing as well as the core underlying business's ability to generate cash. We do think that north of $1 billion number is still right.

但是，是的，對你的問題的簡短回答是，我們仍然認為它的自由現金流超過 10 億美元，假設大約 20% 的啟動下降情況和相當穩定的商品環境。如您所知，這些 - 這兩件事都可以大大增加我們的營運資金。一般來說，我們仍然認為，大約 10% 的增量或減量營運資金，銷售額是考慮我們的好方法。因此，考慮到商品正在做什麼的動態、開始做什麼以及核心基礎業務產生現金的能力。我們確實認為 10 億美元以上的數字仍然是正確的。

Got it. Okay. Perfect. That's good and encouraging. If I could sneak one last one in. The value-added piece, now over half your sales in the quarter, that's super impressive. As the single-family business likely slows further in the coming quarters, how would you expect the value-added mix to change? Would there be or would you expect there to be more or less appetite from homebuilders to utilize these products?

知道了。好的。完美的。這很好，也很鼓舞人心。如果我能偷偷最後一個。增值部分，現在超過你本季度銷售額的一半，這非常令人印象深刻。由於單一家族企業在未來幾個季度可能會進一步放緩，您預計增值組合將如何變化？房屋建築商是否或多或少有興趣使用這些產品？

Yes, Trey. I appreciate that question, and it makes sense for you to ask it. The value-added has shown incredible resiliency even as we've had headwinds and starts and the market has turned a little bit at least especially on the component side, they're just such a nice offset to the labor challenge. And the labor challenge is going to be consistent even in the current housing environment we're in.

是的，特雷。我很欣賞這個問題，你問這個問題是有道理的。即使我們遇到逆風和開始，市場已經出現了一點變化，尤其是在組件方面，增值也顯示出令人難以置信的彈性，它們只是對勞動力挑戰的一個很好的抵消。即使在我們目前所處的住房環境中，勞動力挑戰也將持續存在。

So we haven't seen people move away from components even as their starts have gone down. We have achieved over 50% of our sales in total value added in Q4, which has been a nice belie to our overall sales mix. And we think through growing through our recent acquisitions, that we're going to be able to continue to maintain that pace.

因此，我們還沒有看到人們在開始下降時就放棄組件。我們在第四季度的總附加值中實現了超過 50% 的銷售額，這很好地證明了我們的整體銷售組合。我們認為，通過最近的收購實現增長，我們將能夠繼續保持這種步伐。

The only thing I'd throw in there, Trey, is that it does correlate to some degree, the starts, right? I mean, yes, they're still using it, and they're not going away from it like Dave was saying, but we don't want to somehow argue that truss is going to maintain its volumes when starts are down. There is a correlation there, but we are seeing growth. We're seeing secular growth.

Trey，我唯一要說的是，它確實在某種程度上與開始相關，對吧？我的意思是，是的，他們仍在使用它，並且他們不會像 Dave 所說的那樣離開它，但我們不想以某種方式爭辯說當開始下降時桁架將保持其體積。那裡存在相關性，但我們看到了增長。我們看到了長期增長。

And so that's certainly a strong area for us. And I think you heard it in my comments, right? So fourth quarter value-add, we were still favorable even though starts were down more than 16%.

所以這對我們來說肯定是一個強大的領域。我想你在我的評論中聽到了，對吧？因此，第四季度的增值，即使開工率下降超過 16%，我們仍然看好。

We will take our next question from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

我們將從巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley 那裡回答下一個問題。

Welcome, Dave, to the earnings call. So first question on still kind of seeing that gross margin above 30% for the Q1 guide. When we look at the midpoint of your scenarios of that kind of 10% to 11% in EBITDA margin for the year, what does that imply about the gross margin beyond Q1?

戴夫，歡迎來到財報電話會議。所以第一個問題仍然是看到第一季度指南的毛利率超過 30%。當我們查看您當年 EBITDA 利潤率為 10% 至 11% 的情景的中點時，這對第一季度以後的毛利率意味著什麼？

How quickly does it normalize? And any color on sort of commodity versus non-commodity gross margins as well would be helpful.

它恢復正常的速度有多快？商品與非商品毛利率的任何顏色也會有所幫助。

Thanks, Matt. The storyline for that gross margin number continues to be 1 of good progress, pleased with what we've seen so far, but certainly an open question in terms of where it gets to. So as you highlighted, things have stayed strong in the gross margin line. It is beginning to retrace like we've discussed in the past, right, beginning to normalize as the supply chain normalizes.

謝謝，馬特。該毛利率數字的故事情節仍然是一個良好的進展，對我們迄今為止所看到的感到滿意，但就它的發展方向而言肯定是一個懸而未決的問題。因此，正如您強調的那樣，毛利率一直保持強勁。它開始像我們過去討論過的那樣回溯，正確的，隨著供應鏈的正常化開始正常化。

We certainly have performed well. I mean, our 30% to 32% gross margin guide for Q1 is certainly well north of what we said historically is our normalized roughly 27% plus gross margin. We're continuing to see really nice performance and mix up from the value-add component of our business, which we hope for and which we're expecting. But as the year progresses, we do anticipate that continuing to trend back towards a normalized level we're pretty optimistic about what that looks like. But for now, not ready to provide any real guidance in terms of the full year.

我們當然表現得很好。我的意思是，我們第一季度 30% 至 32% 的毛利率指南肯定遠高於我們歷史上所說的正常化的大約 27% 以上的毛利率。我們將繼續看到非常好的表現，並將我們業務的增值部分混為一談，這是我們希望和期待的。但隨著時間的推移，我們確實預計會繼續回到正常水平，我們對此非常樂觀。但就目前而言，還沒有準備好提供任何全年的實際指導。

Yes. The only other thing I'd add, Matt, is part of how we've managed margin is actually through some of our cost improvement initiatives around manufacturing. We've actually improved our board foot per man hour by 22% since the merger. That productivity and trust allows us and will allow us to compete effectively for share even in a challenging environment. So we're kind of going at it from all angles and trying to maintain the margin the best we can.

是的。馬特，我要補充的唯一一件事是我們管理利潤率的一部分實際上是通過我們圍繞製造的一些成本改進計劃。自合併以來，我們實際上已經將每工時板尺提高了 22%。這種生產力和信任使我們能夠並將使我們即使在充滿挑戰的環境中也能有效地爭奪份額。因此，我們正在從各個角度進行研究，並儘力保持利潤率。

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. That makes sense. Second one, on the value-add, you had the 16% decline in manufacturing products over the quarter. Clearly, that's more tied to the front end of construction. I think you have the windows, doors and millwork growing 22%, reflecting completions.

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。這就說得通了。第二，在附加值方面，本季度製造業產品下降了 16%。顯然，這更多地與建築的前端聯繫在一起。我認為您的窗戶、門和木製品增長了 22%，反映了完工情況。

My question is how should we think about the timing of those converging Kind of at what point do you see this sort of tail of completions beginning to more closely resemble what we've seen in starts?

我的問題是，我們應該如何考慮這些匯聚的時間？您在什麼時候看到這種完成的尾巴開始與我們在開始時看到的更相似？

Yes, Matt, that's a good question. I think we've pretty much already seen that convergence as we get further into the quarter. Our door and millwork sales have somewhat normalized. But we still believe in the value-added segment as a positive for the overall business. And the truss component, as I said, has been really resilient. We haven't seen people move away from truss granted because there's fewer starts, we're going to have fewer sales in truss, but the fact that we can maintain that percentage of our overall business is very encouraging to us, and we believe it will continue.

是的，馬特，這是個好問題。我認為隨著我們進入本季度，我們幾乎已經看到了這種融合。我們的門和木製品銷售有所正常化。但我們仍然相信增值部分對整體業務有利。正如我所說，桁架組件非常有彈性。我們還沒有看到人們放棄 truss granted，因為開始較少，我們的 truss 銷售額將會減少，但我們能夠保持整體業務的這一比例這一事實對我們來說非常鼓舞人心，我們相信這一點將繼續。

We'll take our next question from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

我們將接受 BMO Capital Markets 的 Ketan Mamtora 的下一個問題。

First question, recognizing that there is still a lot of uncertainty around. Can you give us some sense of how you guys are thinking about the multifamily business and R&R, it seems like that is becoming the equator focus area for you all.

第一個問題，認識到周圍仍然存在很多不確定性。你能告訴我們你們是如何看待多戶家庭業務和 R&R 的嗎，這似乎正在成為你們所有人關注的赤道重點領域。

Yes, Ketan. Appreciate the question. Multifamily will certainly be a buoy for us in 2023. We are not quite sure how 2024 is going to play out. I was at the Harvard Housing Conference, and there was some concern that multifamily in '24 may start seeing some headwinds. First, what we're seeing in the amount of bid activity for 2024 has not tremendously weighed those. So we're still slightly optimistic there.

是的，科坦。感謝這個問題。多戶住宅在 2023 年肯定會成為我們的浮標。我們不太確定 2024 年會如何發展。我在哈佛住房會議上，有人擔心 24 世紀的多戶家庭可能會開始遇到一些不利因素。首先，我們在 2024 年的投標活動數量中看到的並沒有極大地權衡這些。所以我們在那裡仍然略微樂觀。

On the R&R front, again, the thing that made that difficult for us in prior years was capacity and the supply chain constraints that we were facing. It was hard to fully explore that opportunity and go after new business. when we were having struggles with supply chain taking care of the existing customers. So we will rededicate at our focus on growing that share now that those kind of conditions have lessened.

在 R&R 方面，前幾年給我們帶來困難的是產能和我們面臨的供應鏈限制。很難充分探索這個機會並追求新業務。當我們在供應鏈照顧現有客戶時遇到困難。因此，既然這種情況已經減輕，我們將重新專注於增加這一份額。

Got it. That's helpful. And then my second question, either Dave or Peter. It seems like there is some investor concern about your probability to hold on to price gains on the manufactured component side with engineered wood pricing also starting to fall quite sharply, obviously, single family is down. Can you talk at a high level sort of at least philosophically, how you approach that?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題，Dave 或 Peter。似乎有一些投資者擔心你在製造部件方面保持價格上漲的可能性，而工程木材價格也開始大幅下跌，顯然，單戶價格下降。您能否至少在哲學上進行高層次的討論，您是如何處理的？

Yes. That's a great question. I think for us, we did invest significantly, almost $100 million, in our ability to gain productivity through automation in all our plants. That has created a cost advantage for us in the marketplace. We believe we're the low-cost provider for trust in the marketplace. That gives you a little bit of flexibility to go after share where that's the answer and to be able to hold on to a little bit of margin for a little longer time where that's available. Anything you want to add there, Peter?

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我認為對我們來說，我們確實投入了大量資金，將近 1 億美元，以提高我們通過所有工廠的自動化來提高生產力的能力。這為我們在市場上創造了成本優勢。我們相信我們是市場信任的低成本供應商。這給了你一點靈活性，讓你可以在答案所在的地方進行分享，並能夠在可用的情況下保持一點點保證金更長的時間。彼得，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. And I think we've talked a lot about the amount of investment. We've made in pricing management and pricing rigor and pricing discipline that's certainly an important part about how we expect to manage this business on a go-forward basis. And combined with Dave's point about how efficient we are, we think that puts us in a great position to offer a total cost benefit to our customer. while at the same time, getting a fair margin and being able to hold on to what we work so hard for.

是的。我想我們已經談了很多關於投資額的問題。我們在定價管理和定價嚴謹性和定價紀律方面取得了進展，這無疑是我們期望如何在前進的基礎上管理這項業務的重要組成部分。結合戴夫關於我們效率的觀點，我們認為這使我們處於為客戶提供總成本效益的有利位置。同時，獲得公平的利潤並能夠堅持我們如此努力工作的目標。

So we're certainly optimistic right now, especially as you see each quarter's numbers come through.

所以我們現在當然很樂觀，尤其是當你看到每個季度的數字都通過時。

I do believe Norman margins for product that the margin ran up simply based on supply and demand dynamics, that will normalize first, and we're already seeing that. You're definitely seeing it, for example, with Lumber and Sheet Goods as an example. There are other products in our industry won't respond as quickly and as deeply as Lumber and Sheet Good have, but we should see some of that. But as far as what we can control, I think what we're going to try to do is when by providing better customer service, better -- reduce cycle times for our customers, allow them to win on cycle time costs and then we'll be able to hold on to some of the margin that we've tried to create.

我確實相信諾曼的產品利潤率僅僅基於供需動態而上升，這將首先正常化，我們已經看到了這一點。您肯定會看到它，例如，以木材和板材為例。我們行業中的其他產品不會像 Lumber 和 Sheet Good 那樣快速和深入地響應，但我們應該看到其中的一些。但就我們可以控制的範圍而言，我認為我們要做的是通過提供更好的客戶服務，更好地——為我們的客戶減少週期時間，讓他們在周期時間成本上取勝，然後我們”將能夠保持我們試圖創造的一些利潤。

We'll take our next question from David Manthey with Barclays -- I apologize with Baird.

我們將從巴克萊銀行的 David Manthey 那裡回答我們的下一個問題——我向 Baird 道歉。

Yes. And my congratulations to you, Dave. First question, could you discuss your comfort level with the debt in the downside 2023 scenario? I assume you delever a lot the balance sheet unwinding. But is there any change in your views at all on M&A or share repurchase as we move through this downturn yet or potentially in the future?

是的。我向你表示祝賀，戴夫。第一個問題，您能否談談在 2023 年下行情景中您對債務的滿意程度？我假設你在資產負債表平倉時減少了很多槓桿。但是，隨著我們度過這次低迷時期或未來可能，您對併購或股票回購的看法是否有任何改變？

Yes. Thanks, Dave. That's a great question. So the short answer is we feel really good about the balance sheet. And we think that our priorities around capital allocation are still the right ones and we're going to lean in on it.

是的。謝謝，戴夫。這是一個很好的問題。所以簡短的回答是我們對資產負債表感覺非常好。我們認為我們圍繞資本配置的優先事項仍然是正確的，我們將依靠它。

We've got no related on structured debt until 2030. The ABL is -- we just reran that one from a timeline perspective. So we've got a new maturity start, plenty of liquidity. We feel very good about the strength of the balance sheet.

在 2030 年之前，我們與結構性債務沒有任何關係。ABL 是——我們只是從時間表的角度重新運行了那個。所以我們有一個新的到期開始，流動性充足。我們對資產負債表的實力感到非常滿意。

You layer on the fact that, as you noted, we would expect to release some working capital in the event of a further sort of slowing in the market. So that will be a nice tailwind in terms of available cash. The business is still generating creating cash, so we feel good about that even in some of these more aggressive downside scenarios. And then the overlay of all that is we do expect there to be opportunities, right?

正如您所指出的，您強調的事實是，如果市場進一步放緩，我們預計會釋放一些營運資金。因此，就可用現金而言，這將是一個很好的順風。該業務仍在創造現金，因此即使在某些更嚴重的下行情況下，我們也對此感到滿意。然後我們確實希望有機會，對嗎？

While M&A has certainly been a source of growth for us, and it has we're going to continue to execute those. So where as we stated disciplined, we think there's really going to be -- there are going to be nice opportunities for us to continue to do that. And as we've demonstrated up through now. We think there's real intrinsic value in the repurchase of shares. So to the extent we're not seeing good targets on M&A or we don't have the capacity internally to do more M&A. We'll continue to leverage that as well.

雖然併購無疑是我們增長的源泉，但我們將繼續執行這些。因此，正如我們所說的紀律嚴明，我們認為真的會有 - 我們將有很好的機會繼續這樣做。正如我們到目前為止所展示的那樣。我們認為回購股票具有真正的內在價值。因此，在某種程度上，我們沒有看到好的併購目標，或者我們沒有內部能力進行更多的併購。我們也將繼續利用這一點。

The only thing I'd add on the M&A front is we are still at or above our plan that we laid out on Investor Day of $500 million per year dedicated M&A. So even as it slows now over the long term, we don't have any concern over hitting that target.

在併購方面，我唯一要補充的是，我們仍然達到或高於我們在投資者日制定的每年 5 億美元的專門併購計劃。因此，即使從長遠來看現在它正在放緩，我們也不擔心達到該目標。

And second, maybe we could just get an update on Ready-Frame specifically, if you talk about revenues, number of locations and anything in terms of the capital outlook or growth expectations, not just this year, but over, say, the next 1 to 3 years?

其次，也許我們可以專門了解 Ready-Frame 的最新情況，如果你談論收入、地點數量以及資本前景或增長預期方面的任何事情，不僅是今年，而是明年 1到 3 年？

Yes. So Ready-Frame is a valuable part of our value-added product portfolio. Certainly not one of the bigger components, but an important area that we think allows people to enter into the use of the offsite fabrication ideas, concepts -- we think it dovetails really nicely with what we're doing in digital in terms of the precision that we are able to deliver out of that Digital Solution, then integrating really nicely into all the value-added products, but that Ready-Frame offering in particular. We've looked at it post merger at opportunities to expand. We continue to put it into new markets, making sure we have capacity, making sure we're managing it. The growth is still positive, and we feel good about it in the long term.

是的。因此 Ready-Frame 是我們增值產品組合的重要組成部分。當然不是更大的組成部分之一，而是我們認為的一個重要領域，它允許人們使用異地製造的想法和概念——我們認為它在精度方面與我們在數字領域所做的事情非常吻合我們能夠從該數字解決方案中交付，然後很好地集成到所有增值產品中，尤其是 Ready-Frame 產品。我們已經研究了合併後的擴張機會。我們繼續將其投入新市場，確保我們有能力，確保我們正在管理它。增長仍然是積極的，從長遠來看，我們對此感覺良好。

We will take our next question from Keith Hughes with Truist.

我們將接受 Keith Hughes 和 Truist 的下一個問題。

On the guidance for the first quarter, can you give us any kind of breakout how much revenue decline is from commodity deflation versus units and the kind of value-added comment that, that would be nice as well?

關於第一季度的指導，你能給我們任何類型的突破是商品通貨緊縮與單位收入下降多少以及那種增值評論，這也很好嗎？

Well, I mean in terms of the breakdown, the commodity prices have pretty well, I would say, leveled out based on what we're looking at, been pretty stable. So the decline year-over-year in commodities is meaningful, it will get that trend down. On a year-over-year comp basis, that trend down started probably Q3, Q4 last year, probably the best way to describe it. So comps will be most difficult in Q1 and Q2 and get a little easier.

好吧，我的意思是，就細分而言，我想說，根據我們所看到的情況，商品價格已經相當穩定，非常穩定。因此，大宗商品的同比下降是有意義的，它將使這種趨勢下降。在同比比較的基礎上，這種下降趨勢可能是去年第三季度、第四季度開始的，這可能是描述它的最佳方式。所以 comp 將在 Q1 和 Q2 中最困難，並且會變得更容易一些。

Yes, that's directionally looking for. And I guess a question on cash flow. You've laid out some M&A targets with the stock where it is now, would you consider buying in excess of free cash flow and other borrowing as we go through this downturn on shares? Or are you going to be limiting yourself on share repurchase to what cash you're generating?

對，就是定向尋找。我想是關於現金流的問題。你已經用現在的股票制定了一些併購目標，你會考慮在我們經歷這次股票低迷時購買超過自由現金流和其他借款的股票嗎？或者您是否會將自己的股票回購限制在您產生的現金範圍內？

Well, I mean, I think the way we think about deploying capital broadly, right, is that we have an appropriate balance sheet, well structured as long as we're in kind of our range of 1 to 2x base business, we're extremely comfortable. Certainly not intimidated by the idea of being a little below or a little above for a window of time. I think that's just good management.

好吧，我的意思是，我認為我們考慮廣泛部署資本的方式是，我們有一個適當的資產負債表，只要我們處於 1 到 2 倍基礎業務的範圍內，我們的結構就很好，我們是非常舒服。當然不會被在一段時間內低於或高於一點的想法所嚇倒。我認為這是很好的管理。

But we certainly are committed to continuing to deploy capital. I think it's a responsibility of management. We think responsible thing to do. We think it's good for shareholders. So we're going to continue to stay committed, and we'll look for opportunistic moments, right, where in each one of those categories, we think there'll be times when it might make sense to lean in, but we're never going to put ourselves in a position where we put ourselves at risk. We've got a lot of confidence in our ability to sort of see what the business is capable of and manage that liquidity, and we're confident we can work well in that range.

但我們當然致力於繼續部署資本。我認為這是管理層的責任。我們認為負責任的事情要做。我們認為這對股東有利。因此，我們將繼續保持承諾，我們將尋找機會主義時刻，對，在這些類別中的每一個類別中，我們認為有時可能需要向前邁進，但我們永遠不會讓自己處於讓自己處於危險之中的境地。我們對了解業務能力和管理流動性的能力充滿信心，我們相信我們可以在這個範圍內運作良好。

We will take our next question from Adam Baumgarten with Zelman.

我們將與 Zelman 一起接受 Adam Baumgarten 的下一個問題。

Just a question on the mix of business. Is there any meaningful impact on margins, either positive or negative, from a higher mix of multifamily and R&R revenue?

只是關於業務組合的問題。多戶型和 R&R 收入的更高組合是否對利潤率有任何有意義的影響，無論是積極的還是消極的？

Yes, Adam, that's a good question. In 2023, multifamily will be a tailwind for our margins. It only creates a little bit of a tailwind. It's still only about 15% of our overall business. R&R traditionally has been a higher-margin products as well. And we expect a favorable result from our R&R margin maintenance. It will help us hold on to margin. Again, the combination of those 2 products is a smaller percentage of our overall business. And generally, our margin profile follows single family, but they will be helpful in us maintaining as we normalize in other areas.

是的，亞當，這是個好問題。到 2023 年，多戶住宅將成為我們利潤率的助推器。它只會產生一點順風。它仍然只占我們整體業務的 15% 左右。 R&R 傳統上也是利潤率較高的產品。我們預計我們的 R&R 保證金維持會帶來有利的結果。這將幫助我們保持保證金。同樣，這兩種產品的組合在我們整體業務中所佔的比例較小。通常，我們的保證金概況遵循單一家庭，但隨著我們在其他領域的正常化，它們將有助於我們維持。

Okay. Got it. And then just on Digital Solutions. You guys said you're on track to deliver $1 billion in revenue by 2026. Can you maybe give us an update on where you ended in 2022?

好的。知道了。然後就在數字解決方案上。你們說你們有望在 2026 年之前實現 10 億美元的收入。你們能否向我們介紹一下你們在 2022 年結束時的最新情況？

Yes. I'd love to talk about our digital milestones. So 2022 is a year of development. We really weren't trying to monetize the concept in 2022. And actually, even through 2023, it will only be a marginal revenue opportunity. We're playing an in game here with the Digital Solution.

是的。我很想談談我們的數字里程碑。所以2022年是發展的一年。我們真的沒有試圖在 2022 年將這個概念貨幣化。實際上，即使到 2023 年，這也只是一個邊際收入機會。我們在這裡玩數字解決方案的遊戲。

What we're focused on in 2023 is the full development of the platform. And we believe by the end of the year, we will have achieved all the development milestones. We're piloting it in 40 -- with 40 customers across 4 markets. We're going to learn a lot from that. We're going to go back. We're going to refigure, we're going to redevelop, we're going to change what we need to. Because at the end of the day, the full recognition of value in this solution is through pull-through sales by making us easier to do business with. We believe fully in that concept still we believe we're light-years ahead of any of our competition as it relates to where we stand in the development process. And we still believe in our goal of $1 billion of incremental sales by 2026, primarily through pull-through business. Anything you want to add there, Peter?

我們在 2023 年關注的是平台的全面發展。我們相信到今年年底，我們將實現所有的發展里程碑。我們正在 40 年內進行試點——在 4 個市場中有 40 個客戶。我們將從中學到很多東西。我們要回去了。我們要重構，我們要重新開發，我們要改變我們需要的東西。因為歸根結底，這個解決方案的價值是通過拉動銷售讓我們更容易做生意而得到的充分認可。我們完全相信這個概念，我們仍然相信我們比任何競爭對手都領先光年，因為它與我們在開發過程中所處的位置有關。我們仍然相信我們的目標是到 2026 年實現 10 億美元的增量銷售額，主要是通過直通式業務。彼得，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

You nailed it.

你成功了。

We will take our next question from Steven Ramsey with Thompson Group.

Thompson Group 的 Steven Ramsey 將回答我們的下一個問題。

Maybe just to start with on CapEx. The last couple of years, it seems like there, the delay of deliveries has caused some push-out on CapEx spend. Supply chain and labor is a little bit better than now. Do you feel like you can deliver on all the CapEx this year or more likely to deliver than prior years? And is there any delay embedded in this current guidance?

也許只是從資本支出開始。在過去的幾年裡，交付的延遲似乎已經導致資本支出支出有所減少。供應鍊和勞動力比現在好一點。您是否覺得今年可以交付所有資本支出，或者比往年更有可能交付？當前指南中是否有任何延遲？

Yes. No, thanks, Steve. You're right. We've struggled to get what we wanted. It's gotten a little better. There has not been the early the relief in things like rolling stock that there have been in certain other categories. .

是的。不，謝謝，史蒂夫。你說得對。我們一直在努力得到我們想要的。情況好一點了。機車車輛等某些其他類別的產品並沒有出現早期的緩解。 .

So that's still a source of, I would say, strain. It's getting better. So my sense is this year's CapEx will be more achievable than last year. There's certainly a lot we want to do, and we're still optimistic that, that will continue to free up as the year progresses.

所以我想說，這仍然是壓力的來源。它越來越好。所以我的感覺是今年的資本支出將比去年更容易實現。我們當然有很多想做的事情，而且我們仍然樂觀地認為，隨著時間的推移，這將繼續釋放出來。

Okay. Helpful. And then another question somewhat related to CapEx and labor as you plan for a downturn but also want to be prepared for taking advantage of longer-term strength in housing. How do you think about holding on to labor for the long term and building out capacity even if it's not fully soaked up in the next 12 or so months?

好的。有幫助。然後另一個問題與資本支出和勞動力有關，因為您計劃經濟低迷，但也希望為利用房地產的長期優勢做好準備。即使在接下來的 12 個月左右的時間裡還沒有完全吸收，您如何看待長期堅持勞動力和建設產能？

Yes. So the capacity question is a good one, but we firmly believe in investing in the long term. So we aren't changing our priorities as it relates to investments in capacity, specifically around value-added products. And in fact, we're trying to address kind of labor concerns a little bit through some of these investments. We have fully robotic lines in Georgia and Texas that we are still working through and trying to make sure and having some success with. And I think we have 6 to 7 more on the books that we're going to add over the next 2 to 3 years.

是的。所以能力問題是一個很好的問題，但我們堅信要進行長期投資。因此，我們不會改變我們的優先事項，因為它與產能投資有關，特別是圍繞增值產品。事實上，我們正試圖通過其中一些投資來解決一些勞工問題。我們在佐治亞州和得克薩斯州擁有完全自動化的生產線，我們仍在努力，並試圖確保並取得一些成功。我認為在接下來的 2 到 3 年內，我們還會增加 6 到 7 本書。

So we're seeing investments in technology and investments in automation as a way to really address both labor concerns we have today and in the future. So that will definitely not stop. As it relates to the core business, we've been really diligent about protecting our A and B players out in the marketplace, and that's not going to change either because we see that as what we're experiencing now is somewhat of a short-term scenario and over the long term we want to come out of this guns and blazing on the other side with our best people. So that's kind of how we're approaching it right now.

因此，我們將技術投資和自動化投資視為真正解決我們今天和未來的勞工問題的一種方式。所以那是絕對不會停下來的。由於它與核心業務相關，我們一直非常努力地保護我們在市場上的 A 和 B 參與者，這也不會改變，因為我們認為我們現在所經歷的有點短暫 -長期來看，從長遠來看，我們希望擺脫這種槍戰，與我們最優秀的人才一起在另一邊燃燒。所以這就是我們現在處理它的方式。

We will take our next question from Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

我們將與 Wedbush 一起接受 Jay McCanless 的下一個問題。

Congrats, Dave.

恭喜，戴夫。

Thank you, Jay.

謝謝你，傑伊。

Yes, you bet. So Slide 18, kudos on this new EBITDA presentations very useful. But when you talk to your single family builder customers, where do you think they're falling right now on these 3 ranges, negative 15% to negative 25% seems to be what we hear from a lot of people, but would love to hear what feedback you've been getting from your single family customers on where they think 23 falls out.

是的，你打賭。所以幻燈片 18，這個新的 EBITDA 演示文稿非常有用。但是，當您與單身家庭建築商客戶交談時，您認為他們現在處於這 3 個範圍內的哪個位置，負 15% 到負 25% 似乎是我們從很多人那裡聽到的，但很想听到你從你的單身家庭客戶那裡得到了什麼反饋，他們認為 23 歲的孩子在哪裡不合適。

Yes, I'll start on that one, and Dave can jump on. So the short answer is they're all over the place. There's a lot of differential depending on what market you're in, the type of house you're selling, your exposure to customer versus spec. We talked a lot about East to West, how much harder this market has been, how rapid the downturn has been in certain markets. So it really is all across the board with people quite pessimistic and quite optimistic being, I would say, equally common.

是的，我將從那個開始，Dave 可以繼續。所以簡短的回答是它們無處不在。根據您所處的市場、您銷售的房屋類型、您接觸的客戶與規格的不同，會有很多差異。我們從東到西談了很多，這個市場有多艱難，某些市場的衰退有多快。所以這真的是全面的，人們非常悲觀和非常樂觀，我想說，同樣普遍。

So what we tried to do is account for a few of those scenarios playing out, trying to think about what they balance out in our numbers to give you some sense of if we lead one way or lead the other, right? And Powell got leaning one way or leaning the other, what might potentially play out. So it's -- as you can imagine, that's been a tough one for us.

所以我們試圖做的是解釋其中的一些場景，試圖思考它們在我們的數字中平衡了什麼，讓你了解我們是領先還是領先其他，對吧？鮑威爾要么傾向於一種方式，要么傾向於另一種方式，這可能會發生什麼。所以它 - 正如你可以想像的那樣，這對我們來說是一個艱難的過程。

Yes. I mean it's the reason you have 3 different scenarios that are to pick from, right? The -- you saw it as recently as coming out of the year in December, most builders were really pessimistic. Mortgage rates get down a couple, 20, 40 basis points and all of a sudden, the light turned on and everybody started showing up again. So it was really hard to just try to narrow it down to 1 narrow range, and that's why we gave you the different scenarios.

是的。我的意思是這就是您有 3 種不同場景可供選擇的原因，對吧？ -- 你最近看到它是在 12 月份出來的，大多數建築商真的很悲觀。抵押貸款利率下降了幾個、20、40 個基點，突然間，燈亮了，每個人又開始出現了。因此，僅嘗試將其縮小到 1 個狹窄範圍真的很難，這就是我們為您提供不同場景的原因。

But the good thing is we do know underlying demand remains strong. evidenced by how quickly people return to the marketplace once they realize mortgage rates were at a rate that they felt like they could execute on the home purchase that they were after. So it was just additional proof that over the long term underlying home demands there. We just got to make sure that we balance that affordability against that demand.

但好消息是我們知道潛在需求依然強勁。一旦人們意識到抵押貸款利率處於他們認為可以執行他們所追求的房屋購買的利率時，人們就會以多快的速度返回市場，這證明了這一點。因此，這只是額外的證明，從長遠來看，潛在的家庭需求在那裡。我們只需要確保我們在可負擔性和需求之間取得平衡。

Got it. And then my second question, in terms of M&A activity slowing down a little bit, kind of surprised by that because we've been hearing that the banks have been tightening up on land lending and tightening up generally on anything related to housing. Or are you just -- or the potential targets you're looking at, are they not feeling that pinch right now? Or did everyone have such a good 2 or 3 years that they can hold off for a little bit? Maybe a little more depth on that.

知道了。然後是我的第二個問題，關於併購活動略有放緩，對此感到有點驚訝，因為我們一直聽說銀行一直在收緊土地貸款，並普遍收緊與住房有關的任何事情。或者你只是 - 或者你正在尋找的潛在目標，他們現在沒有感受到那種壓力嗎？還是大家都有這麼好的2、3年，可以稍微拖延一下？也許更深入一點。

I think it's more of what you just said, the latter part. I think they had a good couple of years run they're looking at a fairly uncertain environment now, and they're just not ready to get off the fence. I think as the year plays out. And as we see more certainty as the year plays out around interest rates and mortgage rates and people can evaluate what the next 12 to 18 months look like. I think they'll jump back in. And of course, we're looking continuously throughout the time that we're there.

我覺得更多的是你剛才說的，後半部分。我認為他們已經運行了好幾年，他們現在正在尋找一個相當不確定的環境，而且他們還沒有準備好擺脫困境。我認為隨著這一年的結束。隨著今年圍繞利率和抵押貸款利率展開，我們看到更多的確定性，人們可以評估未來 12 到 18 個月的情況。我認為他們會跳回來。當然，我們在那裡的整個時間裡都在不斷地尋找。

Okay. Great. And then the last one I had, just if you think about whatever metric you will use bid activity, quote requests, et cetera, because we did see kind of a tale of two cities of mortgage rates in January and February. Can you talk about how business was in January, what February looked like compared to January, just given the spike hire that we did see in rates?

好的。偉大的。然後是我的最後一個，如果你考慮你將使用投標活動、報價請求等的任何指標，因為我們確實看到了 1 月和 2 月兩個城市抵押貸款利率的故事。你能談談 1 月份的業務情況嗎？2 月份與 1 月份相比情況如何？考慮到我們確實看到的僱傭率飆升？

What you described is accurate. It has been erratic ups and downs. I don't know that there's a trend there broadly other than to say it's lower than last year, and it's certainly a market that's trying to find its own. Yes. I think breaking it down at this point is going to help anybody. But it's certainly a market we're staying very close to operationally to ensure we're responding correctly to whatever is there.

你描述的是準確的。一直起伏不定。我不知道那裡是否存在廣泛的趨勢，只能說它低於去年，而且肯定是一個試圖找到自己的市場。是的。我認為在這一點上分解它會幫助任何人。但它肯定是一個我們在運營上非常接近的市場，以確保我們對那裡的任何事物做出正確的反應。

Yes. The only thing I'd add is this is not a 2008, 2009 scenario, right? Demand over the long term still extremely positive, and that demand is not speculative. It's for houses that they want to live in. So over the long haul, we still feel pretty good even though it's going to be a little choppy until we get our footing.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，這不是 2008 年、2009 年的情景，對吧？從長遠來看，需求仍然非常積極，而且這種需求不是投機性的。這是為他們想住的房子準備的。所以從長遠來看，我們仍然感覺很好，儘管在我們站穩腳跟之前會有點起伏不定。

We will take our next question from Reuben Garner with the Benchmark Company.

Benchmark Company 的魯本·加納 (Reuben Garner) 將提出下一個問題。

Congrats, Dave, on the new role. So I had some technical difficulties, so I'm just going to ask 1 question, so I don't repeat anything. And hopefully, this one is not repetitive. But the reiteration of the $7 billion to $10 billion in deployable capital from the Investor Day, I think starts are probably likely off in the 30% range. And I kind of looked at that deployable capital is kind of a free cash flow equivalent and maybe that's wrong. But I just wanted to, I guess, clarify if that $7 billion to $10 billion is kind of the cash generation of the business? And if so, what kind of -- what is the biggest thing that gives you confidence that you can still do that even though the starts environment has clearly moved against in such a big way.

恭喜戴夫擔任新角色。所以我遇到了一些技術困難，所以我只想問 1 個問題，所以我不會重複任何內容。希望這不是重複的。但重申投資者日的 70 億美元至 100 億美元可部署資金，我認為啟動可能會在 30% 的範圍內。我有點認為可部署資本是一種自由現金流等價物，也許這是錯誤的。但我想，我只是想澄清一下，這 70 億到 100 億美元是否屬於業務的現金產生？如果是這樣，什麼樣的 - 什麼是最重要的事情讓你有信心你仍然可以做到這一點，即使開始環境顯然已經發生瞭如此大的變化。

Yes. Now, that's a good question. So 2021 guide, for those of you who don't remember was $7 billion to $10 billion of deployable capital. And the way that was -- think about that is $7 billion was at a onetime leverage at the end and $10 billion was at a 2x leverage at the end. So that's 1 to 2x the base business EBITDA from a leverage perspective. The short answer is we've talked about this a lot, and I'm not sure everybody gets it. But commodities for us is an important part of our business, but we make money regardless, we make a lot more money when the price is very high.

是的。現在，這是個好問題。因此，對於那些不記得的人來說，2021 年指南是 70 億至 100 億美元的可部署資本。事情就是這樣——想想看，70 億美元最終是一次性槓桿，而 100 億美元最終是 2 倍槓桿。所以從槓桿的角度來看，這是基本業務 EBITDA 的 1 到 2 倍。簡短的回答是我們已經討論了很多次，但我不確定每個人都明白。但對我們來說，大宗商品是我們業務的重要組成部分，但無論如何我們都會賺錢，當價格非常高時，我們會賺更多的錢。

So it becomes a bit of an option where you have a high future price, you get a lot more cash flow into the business. And that's exactly what we experienced in year 1 of our execution against our Investor Day targets. We had an incremental amount of cash that has put us far ahead of the pace necessary to make our number.

因此，如果您的未來價格很高，它就會成為一種選擇，您會為企業帶來更多的現金流。這正是我們在執行投資者日目標的第一年所經歷的。我們擁有大量現金，這使我們遠遠領先於實現這一目標所需的步伐。

Even though you're right, currently, the forecast of where '23 is going to be for starts is well below what we have built into our forecast. We talked about low single growth is being -- low single-digit single family starts growth is being embedded into the model, but we're certainly in a very strong position with the start that we've had to be able to deliver on that regardless. And as I mentioned, we still expect to see healthy free cash flow delivery throughout the remaining years on top of that nice strong head start.

儘管你是對的，但目前，對 23 年開工時間的預測遠低於我們預測中的預測。我們談到了低個位數的單一家庭開始增長正在被嵌入到模型中，但我們肯定處於非常有利的地位，因為我們必須能夠實現這一目標不管。正如我所提到的，我們仍然希望在接下來的幾年中看到健康的自由現金流交付，在此良好的開端之上。

And we will take our next question with Collin Verron with Jefferies.

我們將與 Collin Verron 和 Jefferies 一起回答下一個問題。

I just wanted to start at the fiscal year '23 scenario, single family starts down 15% to 25%. The sales range there is $15 billion to $17 billion, which is only about a 10% decline in sales versus the 2022 base business sales of $17.7 billion you reported. Can you just talk about the factors there that would get you to that outperformance versus your largest end market?

我只想從 23 財年的情景開始，單戶家庭開始下降 15% 到 25%。那裡的銷售額在 150 億美元到 170 億美元之間，與您報告的 2022 年基礎業務銷售額 177 億美元相比，銷售額僅下降了 10% 左右。你能談談那些能讓你與最大的終端市場相比表現出色的因素嗎？

Yes. Yes. So I think that's -- I'm glad you're asking the question that way. I think it's the right way to think about it. The variables, obviously, starts in single family being the biggest impact on us. The other being the impact of M&A, right? We've been acquisitive and the year-over-year growth from those acquisitions are certainly impactful in terms of how we're performing versus the prior year numbers.

是的。是的。所以我認為那是——我很高興你以這種方式問這個問題。我認為這是正確的思考方式。顯然，變量始於對我們影響最大的單一家庭。另一個是併購的影響，對吧？我們一直在收購，這些收購的同比增長肯定會影響我們與去年相比的表現。

There's a bit of gross margin in there. The normalization will be a bit of a headwind, but we are also seeing some share growth that we've embedded in that as well. So that's an offset.

那裡有一點毛利率。正常化會有點不利，但我們也看到了一些我們已經嵌入其中的份額增長。所以這是一個抵消。

So across the board, being able to offset a share or a portion of that single family decline through the strength of our core business and the differentiated model is a healthy thing for us, and we're certainly quite proud of it.

因此，從整體上看，能夠通過我們的核心業務和差異化模式的優勢抵消單個家族的一部分或一部分下降對我們來說是一件健康的事情，我們當然為此感到自豪。

Great. That's helpful color. And I guess my last question here is just on the productivity savings you guys are expecting, that $90 million to $110 million. Can you just give some examples of those productivity improvements that you're executing on here in 2023? And just how achievable those are in the different volume type environments?

偉大的。這是有用的顏色。我想我在這裡的最後一個問題只是關於你們期望的生產力節省，即 9000 萬到 1.1 億美元。您能否舉例說明您在 2023 年在這裡執行的那些生產力改進？在不同的捲類型環境中實現這些目標的可能性如何？

It actually, it goes hand in hand with what we need to do from a standpoint of competitiveness related to slower housing starts and increasing our customer service, reducing cycle times. So a lot of it is around synergies that we realized from new M&A we've done over the last 18 months. Some other is related to payroll productivity, getting more for less, specifically within our delivery initiatives and some of our truck turnaround initiatives some are around manufacturing productivity, as I mentioned, since the merger, board foot per man-hour has gone up 22%.

實際上，從與較慢的房屋開工和增加我們的客戶服務、縮短週期時間相關的競爭力的角度來看，它與我們需要做的事情密切相關。因此，很多都是圍繞我們在過去 18 個月中完成的新併購中實現的協同效應。其他一些與工資生產率有關，以更少的成本獲得更多，特別是在我們的交付計劃和我們的一些卡車周轉計劃中，有些與製造生產率有關，正如我提到的，自合併以來，每工時板英尺增加了 22% .

That is a combination of best practices across plants as we continue to acquire value-added plants from other parts of the country and integrate them into the BFS way of doing things, there's productivity savings there.

這是跨工廠最佳實踐的結合，因為我們繼續從該國其他地區收購增值工廠並將它們整合到 BFS 做事方式中，那裡可以節省生產力。

We're always constantly reviewing our indirect spend. There's opportunities there. So we probably got 6 to 8 different initiatives that will fund that $90 million to $110 million, and we're very confident in our ability to get there.

我們一直在不斷審查我們的間接支出。那裡有機會。因此，我們可能有 6 到 8 個不同的計劃來資助 9000 萬到 1.1 億美元，我們對我們實現目標的能力非常有信心。

We will take our next question from Michael Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將接受來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Michael Dahl 的下一個問題。

Dave, congrats on the new role. A couple of follow-ups. On the first quarter guide, the slide has a comment saying -- there's a bullet point saying that sales and adjusted EBITDA include the expected benefit of price come the margin impact for the quarter. I think, Peter, as you articulated earlier, there is a sharper commodity headwind from a top line standpoint in 1Q. So can you just elaborate maybe a little bit on what that comment means? And if it's possible to then split out, if there is still some benefit on margins, what your base business for 1Q would be estimated at versus that $400 million to $440 million total?

戴夫，祝賀你擔任新角色。一些後續行動。在第一季度指南中，幻燈片有一條評論說——有一個要點說銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA 包括預期的價格收益以及對本季度的利潤率影響。我認為，彼得，正如你之前所說的那樣，從第一季度的頂線角度來看，大宗商品的逆風更大。那麼，您能否詳細說明一下該評論的含義？如果可以拆分，如果利潤率仍有一些好處，那麼第一季度的基本業務估計與 4 億至 4.4 億美元的總額相比是多少？

Yes. So I think probably the biggest challenge in this is that there is no base business at a quarterly level. That's not a -- it doesn't actually exist. So I'm not holding out on you in terms of talking about that number. You're right. There is a lot going on in the year-over-year comps and the ability to break out those pieces, unfortunately, is generally driven by some detailed analytics. We have some top side assumptions, but I don't think they're particularly helpful to you in terms of insight. A lot of the year-over-year comparison from a commodities perspective, is negative in the first half or far more negative in the first half than the second.

是的。所以我認為這其中最大的挑戰可能是沒有季度層面的基礎業務。那不是——它實際上並不存在。所以我不會在談論這個數字方面對你有所保留。你說得對。年復一年的比較中發生了很多事情，不幸的是，分解這些部分的能力通常是由一些詳細的分析驅動的。我們有一些頂面假設，但我認為它們在洞察力方面對您沒有特別幫助。從大宗商品的角度來看，很多同比比較在上半年都是負面的，或者上半年比下半年更為負面。

Unfortunately, just from the ability to break those pieces apart, so starts comp. So I think that our guide or our comments when we were giving the guide saying that the first half is going to be harder from a comparisons perspective, Unfortunately, it's probably my best insight to offer for the numbers this year.

不幸的是，僅僅因為能夠將這些部分分開，所以開始 comp。因此，我認為我們的指南或我們在提供指南時的評論說，從比較的角度來看，上半年會更難，不幸的是，這可能是我對今年的數字提供的最佳見解。

Yes. Okay. Yes, I guess it was just -- since that comment, there's still benefits in there, but maybe that speaks to the margins haven't quite normalized yet in 1Q scenarios.

是的。好的。是的，我想這只是 - 自那條評論以來，那裡仍然有好處，但也許這說明利潤率在 1Q 場景中還沒有完全正常化。

It's really just trying to say it's all in. That was all.

它真的只是想說一切都在裡面。僅此而已。

Okay. And so my second question is kind of somewhat related, but just a 2-parter on the full year scenarios. And so as a point clarification, when you say commodity price, my sense has been that a blend of lumber in OSB. But can you correct me if I'm wrong on there and put the starting point? Okay. So then just for a frame of reference, if we're looking at a blended price year-to-date, it seems like that's kind of in the mid-300, maybe oscillating between mid-300s and high-300s. Is that a fair characterization of where you're at year-to-date on that blend.?

好的。所以我的第二個問題有點相關，但只是關於全年情景的 2 部分。因此，作為一點澄清，當你說商品價格時，我的感覺是 OSB 中木材的混合物。但是如果我在那裡錯了，你能糾正我嗎？好的。因此，僅作為參考框架，如果我們查看年初至今的混合價格，它似乎在 300 美元左右，可能在 300 美元左右和 300 美元左右之間波動。這是對你今年迄今為止在這種混合中所處位置的公平描述嗎？

Yes. I mean if I just talk to (inaudible), I think that's right, between 350 and 400 million is the range, a little bit below our base business assumption in terms of how the year has started, but it's early.

是的。我的意思是，如果我只是與（聽不清）交談，我認為這是正確的，範圍在 350 到 4 億之間，就今年的開始方式而言，略低於我們的基本業務假設，但現在還早。

A lot of changes on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis. Okay. And then so when we think about the range of scenarios. Obviously, you've spoken to the gross margin dynamics a bit and SG&A is going to flex up or down a decent amount and depending on if you're like down 10% versus down 30%, right? But when you think about putting this range together here in terms of how you get down to the ultimate EBITDA number, which part is the bigger swing factor in your models? Is the gross margin line pretty steady normalizing down and the swing factor in the EBITDA margin is mostly SG&A flexing? Or is there a different mix as you get kind of progressively lower on the scale of these scenarios?

每週或每天都有很多變化。好的。然後，當我們考慮場景的範圍時。顯然，您已經談到了毛利率動態，SG&A 將大幅上升或下降，這取決於您是下降 10% 還是下降 30%，對嗎？但是，當你考慮將這個範圍放在一起以得出最終的 EBITDA 數字時，哪一部分是你模型中更大的擺動因素？毛利率線是否相當穩定地正常化下降，EBITDA 利潤率的波動因素主要是 SG&A 彈性？或者隨著這些場景的規模逐漸降低，是否有不同的組合？

That's a really good question. If we're in the mid-20s -- or sorry, low 20s for SG&A as a percent of sales, and it's about 70% variable. You're talking about 6% that's in that fixed bucket if I think about the impact of margins, obviously, that falls like price all the way through the bottom line, so that's very impactful, I guess, off the top of my head, they seem pretty comparable.

這真是個好問題。如果我們處於 20 多歲——或者抱歉，SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比低 20 多歲，大約有 70% 的可變性。如果我考慮利潤率的影響，你說的是那個固定桶中的 6%，顯然，它像價格一樣一直下降到底線，所以我想這是非常有影響力的，從我的腦海中，他們看起來很有可比性。

I actually don't have a hard answer for you on that. But I think you're right, those are 2 of the major components. What happens when sales decline and how much the deleverage can we offset with rescaling the business and then how does pricing fall through the more aggressive any potential downturn might end up being, we do expect it to be harder on both margins and commodity prices.

實際上，我對此沒有硬性回答。但我認為你是對的，這是兩個主要組成部分。當銷售額下降時會發生什麼，我們可以通過重新調整業務規模來抵消多少去槓桿化，然後定價如何通過更激進的任何潛在衰退最終可能下降，我們確實預計利潤率和商品價格都會更加困難。

And we will take our last question from Alex Rygiel with B. Riley.

我們將與 B. Riley 一起接受 Alex Rygiel 的最後一個問題。

You referenced a slowdown in average daily sales sort of in December and January. Can you quantify that?

您提到了 12 月和 1 月平均每日銷售額的放緩。你能量化嗎？

Well, I mean, there's 2 pieces to it. One of them is the normal seasonality. We do see, generally speaking, about 20% less sales in the depth of winter than we do in the peak of summer. It's a lot more than that, obviously, in the seasonal markets. But we're also seeing the down trend of sort of orders generating starts generating sales for us on new houses. So that decline has been pretty consistent. As one might expect, we would expect to lap the peak probably Q2 to.

嗯，我的意思是，它有 2 件。其中之一是正常的季節性。我們確實看到，一般來說，深冬的銷售額比盛夏的銷售額低約 20%。顯然，在季節性市場中，情況遠不止於此。但我們也看到訂單生成的下降趨勢開始為我們在新房上產生銷售。所以這種下降是相當一致的。正如人們可能預料的那樣，我們預計可能會在第二季度達到峰值。

And then excluding commodity products, are you seeing suppliers reduce their prices yet?

然後排除商品，你看到供應商降價了嗎？

More rumors than actions, but there are a couple of categories where there it looks like it's probably going to happen and we'll stick. For the most part, though, it's been less increases or no increases.

謠言多於行動，但有幾個類別看起來可能會發生，我們會堅持下去。不過，在大多數情況下，增長較少或沒有增長。

Yes. I would add the they're still struggling as well with labor and what they're having to pay for a cost of labor. But at the end of the day, the normal dynamics around supply and demand are going to wipe out and people are going to go after share, they're going to do it with whatever availability they have. It just hasn't been widespread at this point.

是的。我要補充的是，他們仍在為勞動力以及他們必須支付的勞動力成本而苦苦掙扎。但最終，圍繞供需的正常動態將消失，人們將追求份額，他們將利用他們擁有的任何可用性來做到這一點。它只是在這一點上還沒有廣泛傳播。

This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。