(BLDR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Builders FirstSource Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Michael Neese, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Builders FirstSource. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Builders FirstSource 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括管理層的發言和問答環節。 （操作員說明）我現在想將電話轉給 Builders FirstSource 投資者關係高級副總裁 Michael Neese 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Todd. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2022 earnings call. With me on the call are Dave Flitman, our CEO; and Peter Jackson, our CFO. Today, we will review our third quarter results for 2022. The third quarter press release and investor presentation for today's call are available on our website at investors.bldr.com. We will refer to several slides from the investor presentation during the call.

謝謝你，托德。早上好，歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。與我通話的還有我們的首席執行官戴夫·弗利特曼（Dave Flitman）；和我們的首席財務官彼得傑克遜。今天，我們將回顧我們 2022 年第三季度的業績。今天電話會議的第三季度新聞稿和投資者介紹可在我們的網站 Investors.bldr.com 上查閱。我們將在電話會議期間參考投資者演示文稿中的幾張幻燈片。

The results discussed today include GAAP and non-GAAP results adjusted for certain items. We provide these non-GAAP results for informational purposes, and they should not be considered in isolation from the most directly comparable GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures where applicable and a discussion of why we believe they can be useful to investors in our earnings press release, SEC filings and presentation.

今天討論的結果包括針對某些項目調整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果。我們提供這些非公認會計原則的結果僅供參考，不應將它們與最直接可比的公認會計原則措施分開考慮。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿、美國證券交易委員會文件和演示文稿中找到這些非公認會計原則措施與相應公認會計原則措施的對賬，以及我們為什麼認為它們對投資者有用的討論。

Our remarks in the press release, presentation and on this call contain forward-looking and cautionary statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking statements section in today's press release and in our SEC filings for various factors that could cause our actual results to differ from forward-looking statements and projections.

我們在新聞稿、演示文稿和本次電話會議中的評論包含《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性和警示性聲明以及對未來結果的預測。請查看今天新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的前瞻性陳述部分，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述和預測不同的各種因素。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call.

謝謝，邁克。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。

Our strong third quarter results reflect the fundamental strength of our business, including our value-added products and services that resonate with our customers and our consistent execution. We are winning new business and strengthening existing customer relationships by consistently providing customers tailored solutions and excellent service, which collectively make us a partner of choice.

我們強勁的第三季度業績反映了我們業務的基本實力，包括我們與客戶產生共鳴的增值產品和服務以及我們一貫的執行力。我們通過持續為客戶提供量身定制的解決方案和優質服務來贏得新業務並加強現有客戶關係，這共同使我們成為首選合作夥伴。

In the third quarter, we delivered a 6.9% increase in core organic sales, including nearly 20% growth in our higher margin value-added products. That performance, combined with our investments in core operations, our relentless focus on cost controls and acceleration of productivity helped us produce record adjusted EBITDA.

第三季度，我們的核心有機銷售額增長了 6.9%，其中利潤率較高的增值產品增長了近 20%。這種表現，再加上我們對核心業務的投資，我們對成本控制和生產力加速的不懈關注幫助我們創造了創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA。

On Slide 3, I would like to remind you of our long-term strategic priorities: expanding organically in value-added products and services, driving operational excellence, continuing to build our high-performing culture and growing through strategic tuck-in acquisitions.

在幻燈片 3 上，我想提醒您我們的長期戰略重點：有機地擴展增值產品和服務，推動卓越運營，繼續建立我們的高績效文化，並通過戰略性收購實現增長。

On Slide 4, we outline how we continue to execute against our strategy this quarter. Specifically, we delivered record results in the quarter by increasing our value-added product sales. We leveraged our BFS 1-TEAM operating system, leading to $33 million in productivity savings in the quarter. We deployed additional capital toward tuck-in acquisitions as highlighted by our recent purchases. Since the BMC merger, we have now deployed $2 billion of capital to strategic M&A.

在幻燈片 4 中，我們概述了本季度如何繼續執行我們的戰略。具體來說，我們通過增加我們的增值產品銷售在本季度實現了創紀錄的業績。我們利用了 BFS 1-TEAM 操作系統，在本季度節省了 3300 萬美元的生產力。正如我們最近的收購所強調的那樣，我們將額外的資金用於收購收購。自 BMC 合併以來，我們現已將 20 億美元的資金用於戰略併購。

Through October, we have repurchased $2 billion in common stock this year. We still have slightly more than $500 million remaining on our current $2 billion share repurchase authorization and we will continue to look for favorable opportunities to repurchase shares, considering market dynamics and our ongoing commitment to maximize long-term value creation. Since we launched our buyback program 15 months ago, we have invested approximately $3.8 billion in repurchasing roughly 61 million shares, retiring nearly 30% of our common shares outstanding.

截至 10 月，我們今年已經回購了 20 億美元的普通股。我們目前 20 億美元的股票回購授權仍有略多於 5 億美元，考慮到市場動態和我們對最大化長期價值創造的持續承諾，我們將繼續尋找回購股票的有利機會。自 15 個月前我們啟動回購計劃以來，我們已投資約 38 億美元回購約 6100 萬股股票，淘汰了近 30% 的已發行普通股。

Let's turn to our third quarter results on Slide 5. We delivered approximately $6 billion in net sales. Core organic sales in value-added products grew by nearly 20%, while single-family sales increased almost 2%.

讓我們看看幻燈片 5 上的第三季度業績。我們實現了大約 60 億美元的淨銷售額。增值產品的核心有機銷售額增長了近 20%，而單戶住宅銷售額增長了近 2%。

Repair and Remodel and Other increased over 30% and multi-family increased 16%. R&R and Other growth was mainly attributable to a weaker prior year when supply constraints limited our ability to support growth in this segment. Multi-family was driven by solid organic growth and a strong backlog of projects. Once again, value-added products drove our growth story, further validating that we are well positioned to be the supplier of choice for these products.

維修和改造及其他增長超過 30%，多戶家庭增長 16%。 R&R 和其他增長主要歸因於上一年的疲軟，當時供應限制限制了我們支持該領域增長的能力。多戶家庭是由穩健的有機增長和大量積壓的項目推動的。增值產品再一次推動了我們的增長故事，進一步證明我們有能力成為這些產品的首選供應商。

During the third quarter, we generated $1.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA with a margin of 20.3%. These results were driven by our strong execution, share gains, ongoing productivity initiatives and pricing discipline in a market that has been supply constrained, but is returning to normal.

在第三季度，我們產生了 12 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，利潤率為 20.3%。這些結果是由我們在供應受限但正在恢復正常的市場中強大的執行力、份額收益、持續的生產力計劃和定價紀律推動的。

Turning to M&A on Slide 6. In addition to our focus on profitable core organic growth, we continue to execute tuck-in acquisitions that are aligned with our strategy. Since the start of the quarter, we have completed 4 acquisitions that collectively advance our objective of expanding our geographic footprint in key markets, enhancing our value-added portfolio to better serve our customers and diversifying our end market exposure.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的併購。除了關注盈利性核心有機增長外，我們還將繼續執行與我們的戰略相一致的收購。自本季度開始以來，我們已經完成了 4 次收購，共同推進了我們擴大在主要市場的地理足跡、增強我們的增值產品組合以更好地為我們的客戶服務並多樣化我們的終端市場敞口的目標。

In September, we closed our acquisition of Trussway, which expands our footprint in multifamily trusses, accelerating our growth in the Southwest and Southeast. We also acquired Fulcrum Building Group in September, providing us with pro contractor-focused lumberyards, millwork facilities and additional resources in the high-growth markets of the Gulf Coast. In July, we closed our acquisition of HomCo Lumber and Hardware, which enhanced our footprint in Flagstaff, Arizona. Then in October, we acquired Pima Door & Supply, which provides us with dedicated millwork capabilities in Phoenix.

9 月，我們完成了對 Trussway 的收購，這擴大了我們在多戶桁架領域的足跡，加速了我們在西南和東南部的增長。我們還在 9 月收購了 Fulcrum Building Group，在墨西哥灣沿岸的高增長市場為我們提供了以專業承包商為中心的木材廠、木製品設施和額外資源。 7 月，我們完成了對 HomCo Lumber and Hardware 的收購，這增強了我們在亞利桑那州弗拉格斯塔夫的足跡。然後在 10 月，我們收購了 Pima Door & Supply，這為我們在鳳凰城提供了專門的木製品能力。

These acquisitions represent our ability to acquire high-return assets that will boost our long-term value proposition. We're excited to welcome the HomCo, Trussway, Fulcrum and Pima teams with their long-standing customer relationships and track records of profitable growth to the BFS family.

這些收購代表了我們獲得高回報資產的能力，這將提升我們的長期價值主張。我們很高興歡迎 HomCo、Trussway、Fulcrum 和 Pima 團隊與 BFS 家族的長期客戶關係和盈利增長記錄。

We have spent approximately $630 million on M&A so far this year. The highly fragmented nature of our industry supports our ambition to invest on average $500 million per year for the next several years while deploying capital in a disciplined manner. As we navigate near-term market dynamics, we will continue to be acquisitive where valuations make sense. We remain vigilant stewards of capital to ensure we continue to drive long-term value creation for our shareholders.

今年到目前為止，我們已經在併購上花費了大約 6.3 億美元。我們行業高度分散的性質支持我們在未來幾年平均每年投資 5 億美元的雄心，同時以有紀律的方式部署資本。在我們駕馭近期市場動態時，我們將繼續在估值合理的地方進行收購。我們保持警惕的資本管家，以確保我們繼續為股東推動長期價值創造。

Now let's turn to Slide 7 to discuss our pioneering role in the digital transformation of the homebuilding industry. The end of the third quarter marks just over 1 year since the completion of our Paradigm and Apollo acquisitions. The original Paradigm business continues to perform exceptionally well and we are investing in the long-term growth of that business.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 7，討論我們在住宅建築行業數字化轉型中的先鋒作用。第三季度末標誌著我們完成對 Paradigm 和 Apollo 的收購僅一年多。最初的 Paradigm 業務繼續表現出色，我們正在投資於該業務的長期增長。

On the homebuilder software side, we remain committed to executing our development plan to build out of our digital sales team and integration with BFS operations. As we highlighted last quarter, we successfully integrated our structural design, material takeoff and visualization models into one streamlined process for our pilot customers. We now have 18 new digital sales representatives in place with more than 330 customer meetings held during the third quarter.

在房屋建築商軟件方面，我們仍然致力於執行我們的發展計劃，以建立我們的數字銷售團隊並與 BFS 運營整合。正如我們上個季度所強調的那樣，我們成功地將我們的結構設計、材料起飛和可視化模型集成到一個為我們的試點客戶簡化的流程中。我們現在有 18 名新的數字銷售代表，在第三季度舉行了 330 多次客戶會議。

And we are excited to tell you about a new technology that we will be introducing to the marketplace at the beginning of 2023, our new mybldr.com website which will provide our small builder customers easy-to-use digital tools to virtually design and build their next home and engage with key operational functions, including planning, specifying products, ordering materials and budgeting. We believe our launch of this platform will help us grow the BFS brand and build on our momentum as the supplier of choice in the homebuilding industry.

我們很高興向您介紹我們將在 2023 年初向市場推出的一項新技術，即我們的新 mybldr.com 網站，該網站將為我們的小型建築商客戶提供易於使用的數字工具，以虛擬設計和建造他們的下一個家，並參與關鍵的運營職能，包括規劃、指定產品、訂購材料和預算。我們相信，我們推出這個平台將幫助我們發展 BFS 品牌，並鞏固我們作為住宅建築行業首選供應商的勢頭。

Turning to productivity. In addition to the $55 million of carryover synergies, we have delivered $73 million in savings so far in 2022 and we expect to exceed $100 million in productivity savings for the full year as we drive improvement projects and leverage our BFS 1-TEAM operating system.

轉向生產力。除了 5500 萬美元的結轉協同效應外，到 2022 年為止，我們已經節省了 7300 萬美元，隨著我們推動改進項目並利用我們的 BFS 1-TEAM 操作系統，我們預計全年的生產力節省將超過 1 億美元。

Last quarter, we outlined the increased resilience of our business model, and we believe these are important points to reiterate in this current environment of macro uncertainty. In the scenario of a challenged market where housing starts are down significantly, we have many levers to pull, as shown on Slide 8 that will allow us to quickly respond, including effectively managing costs through our variable expense structure to flex expenses with demand, optimizing capacity and further streamlining our footprint, reducing discretionary spend, accelerating productivity projects and taking appropriate workforce actions.

上個季度，我們概述了我們業務模式的增強彈性，我們認為在當前宏觀不確定的環境中，這些是需要重申的重要點。在新屋開工率大幅下降的挑戰市場情景中，我們有很多槓桿可以拉動，如幻燈片 8 所示，這將使我們能夠快速做出反應，包括通過我們的可變費用結構有效管理成本，以根據需求調整費用，優化能力並進一步精簡我們的足跡，減少可自由支配的支出，加快生產力項目並採取適當的勞動力行動。

Our scale, combined with these initiatives, allow us to operate in a much more proactive and effective manner compared to the last recessionary cycle 15 years ago.

與 15 年前的上一個衰退週期相比，我們的規模與這些舉措相結合，使我們能夠以更加積極主動和有效的方式運營。

As we have all seen in the public builder announcements, the commentary has suggested a 30% to 40% decline in order rates on average. While we had very strong third quarter results, we have begun to see a slowdown in average daily sales as higher mortgage rates and declining consumer confidence are weighing on demand and commodity prices.

正如我們在公開的建築商公告中所看到的那樣，評論表明訂單率平均下降了 30% 到 40%。儘管我們的第三季度業績非常強勁，但由於抵押貸款利率上升和消費者信心下降對需求和商品價格造成壓力，我們已經開始看到日均銷售額放緩。

Our September and preliminary October volumes were down low double digits versus a year ago, amid a significant decline in early-stage build products. As such, we quickly pulled a few levers to curb our costs, including bringing our inventory in line with evolving sales levels, putting a moratorium on nonessential travel, reducing headcount and overtime to align with volumes and rationalizing facilities. This work is never easy, and these are difficult decisions with respect to our affected team members, but we must be responsive to the market deceleration and best position the company to navigate this environment. We are proactively managing into the downturn, and we are prepared to act decisively to protect and resize the business as necessary.

由於早期構建產品的顯著下降，我們 9 月和 10 月的初步銷量與一年前相比下降了兩位數的低位。因此，我們迅速採取了一些措施來控製成本，包括使我們的庫存與不斷變化的銷售水平保持一致，暫停不必要的旅行，減少員工人數和加班以適應數量以及合理化設施。這項工作絕非易事，對於我們受影響的團隊成員而言，這些都是艱難的決定，但我們必須對市場減速做出反應，並使公司處於最佳位置，以適應這種環境。我們正在積極應對經濟低迷時期，並準備採取果斷行動，在必要時保護和調整業務規模。

We anticipate that the operating environment will remain challenging for the foreseeable future, but we are committed to strategically accelerating our leading market position, allocating capital towards value-generating organic and inorganic growth opportunities and delivering on our overall value proposition. We are confident that no matter the operating environment, we will continue to execute well, outpace the market and create long-term value for our shareholders.

我們預計，在可預見的未來，經營環境仍將充滿挑戰，但我們致力於戰略性地提升我們在市場上的領先地位，將資本分配給創造價值的有機和無機增長機會，並實現我們的整體價值主張。我們有信心，無論經營環境如何，我們都將繼續保持良好的執行力，超越市場，為股東創造長期價值。

As laser-focused as Builders FirstSource is on making fundamentally sound business decisions that drive value for our shareholders, we are equally devoted to supporting the communities where our team members and customers reside, especially in times of need. The past several weeks have been difficult for many due to the devastation caused by Hurricane Ian. Our hearts go out to all the individuals and families who have been impacted. We were relieved to learn that our team members are safe but saddened that a few of them suffered catastrophic damage to their homes. We stand behind each of them as they work to rebuild.

由於 Builders FirstSource 專注於做出從根本上為股東創造價值的合理業務決策，我們同樣致力於支持我們的團隊成員和客戶所在的社區，尤其是在需要的時候。由於伊恩颶風造成的破壞，過去幾週對許多人來說都很艱難。我們的心與所有受到影響的個人和家庭同在。得知我們的團隊成員安然無恙，我們鬆了一口氣，但對他們中的一些人的家園遭受災難性破壞感到難過。在他們努力重建時，我們支持他們每個人。

In recent weeks, we've donated over $500,000 to humanitarian organizations supporting the Hurricane Ian relief efforts. The organizations Builders FirstSource has made contributions to include the American Red Cross, Samaritans Perse and BFS Cares, the company's emergency assistance program that helps team members who are facing hardship immediately after a natural disaster.

最近幾週，我們向支持伊恩颶風救援工作的人道主義組織捐贈了超過 500,000 美元。 Builders FirstSource 組織為美國紅十字會、Samaritans Perse 和 BFS Cares 做出了貢獻，這是該公司的緊急援助計劃，旨在幫助在自然災害後立即面臨困境的團隊成員。

Moreover, I want to recognize our countless team members who have selflessly gone above and beyond to support those displaced by Hurricane Ian, with special gratitude going to our team members in Wausau, Wisconsin, who partnered with our local community to send a semi-truck filled with supplies and essentials, more than 1,500 miles to Fort Myers, Florida. It's times like these that we be truly humbled to lead such a caring and supportive organization. I extend my heartfelt appreciation to these exceptional team members and to all those individuals and organizations offering support on the ground and assisting with the relief efforts. We stand ready to support these communities and help them rebuild.

此外，我要感謝我們無數的團隊成員，他們無私地支持那些因颶風伊恩而流離失所的人，特別感謝威斯康星州沃索的團隊成員，他們與當地社區合作，派出了一輛半卡車裝滿物資和必需品，距離佛羅里達州邁爾斯堡 1,500 多英里。正是在這樣的時刻，我們才能真正謙卑地領導這樣一個充滿愛心和支持的組織。我衷心感謝這些出色的團隊成員以及所有在實地提供支持並協助救援工作的個人和組織。我們隨時準備支持這些社區並幫助他們重建。

I will now turn the call over to Peter to discuss our third quarter financial results.

我現在將把電話轉給彼得討論我們第三季度的財務業績。

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家早上好。

I'm pleased to report that we delivered strong financial results in the third quarter. We generated a record quarterly free cash flow of $1.4 billion and repurchased $658 million of our common stock during the quarter, all while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Our financial performance reflects consistent execution, disciplined operational management and alignment with our strategic priorities. We are operating with a proactive mindset and have enhanced our already strong expense management processes amid a challenging operating environment. Our fortress balance sheet, low net leverage profile and substantial liquidity provide us with the flexibility to navigate a dynamic but decelerating market. All the while, we are maintaining focus on creating long-term shareholder value.

我很高興地報告，我們在第三季度取得了強勁的財務業績。我們在本季度創造了創紀錄的 14 億美元的季度自由現金流，並回購了 6.58 億美元的普通股，同時保持了強勁的資產負債表。我們的財務業績反映了一致的執行、嚴格的運營管理以及與我們的戰略重點的一致性。我們以積極主動的心態運營，並在充滿挑戰的運營環境中加強了我們已經強大的費用管理流程。我們堅如磐石的資產負債表、低淨槓桿率和充足的流動性為我們提供了駕馭動態但減速市場的靈活性。一直以來，我們一直專注於創造長期股東價值。

I will cover 3 topics with you this morning. First, I'll review our third quarter results. Second, I'll provide an update on capital deployment. And finally, I'll discuss our guidance for full year 2022.

今天早上我將與您討論 3 個主題。首先，我將回顧我們第三季度的業績。其次，我將提供有關資本部署的最新信息。最後，我將討論我們對 2022 年全年的指導。

Let's begin by reviewing our third quarter performance on Slide 9. We generated net sales of $5.8 billion for the quarter, which increased 4.6% compared to the prior year period. Core organic sales in the value-added products category grew by 19.9%, reflecting our work to enhance our product mix and meet customer needs. Gross profit was $2 billion, a 17.6% increase year-over-year. Gross margin increased 390 basis points to 35% as we increased sales in our value-added product categories and continued pricing discipline in what has been a supply-constrained market, but is returning to normal.

讓我們首先回顧一下幻燈片 9 上的第三季度業績。我們本季度的淨銷售額為 58 億美元，與去年同期相比增長了 4.6%。增值產品類別的核心有機銷售額增長了 19.9%，反映了我們加強產品組合和滿足客戶需求的工作。毛利潤為 20 億美元，同比增長 17.6%。毛利率增加 390 個基點至 35%，原因是我們增加了增值產品類別的銷售額，並在供應受限的市場繼續保持定價紀律，但正在恢復正常。

SG&A grew 14.3% to $1 billion, with about half of that increase driven by 2 factors: additional operating expenses from locations acquired within the last 12 months and higher wages and variable compensation costs as a result of increased net sales and profitability. The remainder of the increase was driven by fuel-related expenses and strategic initiatives such as IT, productivity and digital investments. As a percentage of net sales, total SG&A increased by 150 basis points to 17.4%.

SG&A 增長 14.3% 至 10 億美元，其中約一半的增長由兩個因素驅動：過去 12 個月內收購地點的額外運營費用以及由於淨銷售額和盈利能力增加而導致的更高工資和可變薪酬成本。其餘的增長是由與燃料相關的費用和戰略舉措（如 IT、生產力和數字投資）推動的。作為淨銷售額的百分比，SG&A 總額增加了 150 個基點，達到 17.4%。

We remain focused on the importance of controlling expenses and driving EBITDA improvement. We executed successfully during the third quarter as adjusted EBITDA increased 20.1% primarily driven by net sales growth, a higher mix of sales from value-added product categories and disciplined price. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved 260 basis points from the prior year period to 20.3%.

我們仍然專注於控制費用和推動 EBITDA 改善的重要性。我們在第三季度成功執行，調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 20.1%，主要受淨銷售額增長、增值產品類別的銷售組合增加和價格合理的推動。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較去年同期提高 260 個基點至 20.3%。

Adjusted net income was $814 million or $5.20 of adjusted EPS compared to adjusted net income of $697 million or $3.39 of adjusted EPS in the prior year period. The 16.8% increase in adjusted net income was primarily driven by an increase in net sales and gross margin, partially offset by higher income tax and SG&A expense.

調整後淨收入為 8.14 億美元或調整後每股收益 5.20 美元，而去年同期調整後淨收入為 6.97 億美元或調整後每股收益 3.39 美元。調整後的淨收入增長 16.8% 主要是由於淨銷售額和毛利率的增加，部分被更高的所得稅和 SG&A 費用所抵消。

Now let's turn to our strong balance sheet and liquidity on Slide 11. Our third quarter cash provided by operating activities was $1.5 billion, while capital expenditures were $84 million. We generated robust free cash flow of approximately $1.4 billion, primarily driven by core organic sales growth, increased profitability due to effective pricing and cost management and disciplined working capital management. Free cash flow yield was 33.3%, while operating cash flow return on invested capital was 39.8% for the trailing 12 months ended September 30.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 11 上強勁的資產負債表和流動性。我們第三季度由經營活動提供的現金為 15 億美元，而資本支出為 8400 萬美元。我們產生了約 14 億美元的強勁自由現金流，主要受核心有機銷售增長、有效定價和成本管理帶來的盈利能力提高以及嚴格的營運資金管理推動。截至 9 月 30 日的過去 12 個月，自由現金流收益率為 33.3%，而投資資本的運營現金流回報率為 39.8%。

Moving to capital deployment. As Dave mentioned, this year, we have put approximately $630 million to work through 6 acquisitions. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 11.2 million shares for $658 million at an average stock price of $58.57. To put this in perspective, the repurchase equates to $1.24, nearly 70% of the $1.81 adjusted EPS change. In addition, we have repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares so far in Q4 for $112 million at an average stock price of $61.54. We are committed to prudent capital deployment, and we will continue to look for favorable opportunities to repurchase shares.

轉向資本部署。正如 Dave 提到的，今年，我們已經投入了大約 6.3 億美元來完成 6 次收購。本季度，我們以 58.57 美元的平均股價以 6.58 億美元的價格回購了約 1120 萬股股票。從這個角度來看，回購相當於 1.24 美元，接近 1.81 美元調整後每股收益變化的 70%。此外，到目前為止，我們已經在第四季度以 1.12 億美元回購了大約 180 萬股股票，平均股價為 61.54 美元。我們致力於審慎的資本配置，我們將繼續尋找回購股份的有利機會。

Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio as of September 30 was approximately 0.7x, our last 12 months adjusted EBITDA and approximately 1.4x our estimated 2022 base business EBITDA, well within our stated target of 1 to 2x. Excluding our ABL, we have no long-term debt maturities until 2030. At quarter end, our total liquidity was $1.3 billion, consisting of $1.2 billion in borrowing availability under the revolving credit facility and approximately $100 million of cash on hand.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率約為 0.7 倍，是我們過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA 和我們估計的 2022 年基本業務 EBITDA 的約 1.4 倍，完全符合我們規定的 1 至 2 倍的目標。不包括我們的 ABL，我們在 2030 年之前沒有長期債務到期。在季度末，我們的總流動資金為 13 億美元，其中包括循環信貸額度下的 12 億美元借款和大約 1 億美元的手頭現金。

We had a fantastic quarter. We achieved strong metrics across the board, deployed capital and enhanced our overall leadership in our industry. I want to thank our entire team for their skill and dedication.

我們有一個很棒的季度。我們全面實現了強大的指標，部署了資本並增強了我們在行業中的整體領導地位。我要感謝我們整個團隊的技能和奉獻精神。

Turning to Slide 12. We continue to believe it is important to assess our results using a base business methodology. This approach showcases the underlying strength and profitability of our company by normalizing commodity volatility. As a reminder, our base business definition assumes normalized margins and static commodity prices at $400 per thousand board feet. We are maintaining our full year guidance on our base business sales and adjusted EBITDA.

轉到幻燈片 12。我們仍然認為使用基本業務方法評估我們的結果很重要。這種方法通過使商品波動正常化來展示我們公司的潛在實力和盈利能力。提醒一下，我們的基本業務定義假設標準化利潤率和靜態商品價格為每千板英尺 400 美元。我們維持對基礎業務銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 的全年指導。

Turning to Slide 13. I would like to discuss our full year base business and total company outlook as we enter the final months of 2022. We expect results to decelerate over the balance of the fourth quarter amid higher rates, normal seasonality, declining commodity prices and the cooling housing market. While we are seeing slower single-family starts, we expect our results through the end of the year to be supported by the substantial backlog of homes under construction. Our base business guide on net sales remains unchanged at 8% to 12% or $17.2 billion at the midpoint. Our base business EBITDA guide also remains unchanged. We continue to expect growth of 18% to 22% or $2.2 billion at the midpoint.

轉到幻燈片 13。隨著我們進入 2022 年的最後幾個月，我想討論我們的全年基礎業務和公司總體前景。由於利率上升、季節性正常、商品價格下跌，我們預計第四季度剩餘時間的業績將減速以及降溫的房地產市場。雖然我們看到單戶住宅開工速度較慢，但我們預計到年底的業績將得到大量在建房屋積壓的支持。我們關於淨銷售額的基本業務指南保持不變，中點為 8% 至 12% 或 172 億美元。我們的基礎業務 EBITDA 指南也保持不變。我們繼續預計中點增長 18% 至 22% 或 22 億美元。

Given we have less than 2 months left in the year, today, we are also providing guidance for the full year 2022 including total net sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin. This will provide you with our anticipated full year total company performance. We expect full year total company net sales to be $22.5 billion to $23 billion or approximately 13% to 16% over our 2021 net sales of $19.9 billion. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion or approximately 35% to 42% over our 2021 adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin is forecast to be 18.5% to 19.5% or approximately 310 to 410 basis points over the 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%.

鑑於今年還剩不到 2 個月，今天，我們還提供了 2022 年全年的指導，包括總淨銷售額、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率。這將為您提供我們預期的全年公司業績。我們預計全年公司淨銷售額將達到 225 億美元至 230 億美元，比我們 2021 年 199 億美元的淨銷售額增長約 13% 至 16%。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 42 億美元至 44 億美元，比我們 2021 年調整後的 EBITDA 31 億美元高出約 35% 至 42%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計為 18.5% 至 19.5%，或比 2021 年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率 15.4% 高出約 310 至 410 個基點。

We now expect full year 2022 free cash flow of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion, an increase from our prior range of $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion. The improved free cash flow forecast is based on our higher profit outlook on total results and the timing of commodity price fluctuations.

我們現在預計 2022 年全年自由現金流為 31 億美元至 33 億美元，高於我們之前的 25 億美元至 30 億美元。改進的自由現金流預測是基於我們對總業績和商品價格波動時間的更高利潤展望。

Our 2022 outlook is based on several assumptions, which are outlined in the earnings release and presentation. Given inflation, higher mortgage rates and cancellation rates in the double digits, we expect full year single-family starts across our geographies to be down low double digits. We continue to expect multifamily starts to be up in the low double digits and R&R to be up in the low to mid-single digits. Regarding near-term demand, multifamily is gaining momentum and will improve diversification of our mix in coming quarters.

我們的 2022 年展望基於幾個假設，這些假設在收益發布和演示文稿中進行了概述。考慮到通貨膨脹、更高的抵押貸款利率和兩位數的取消率，我們預計我們地區全年的單戶家庭開工率將下降兩位數。我們繼續預計多戶家庭將開始以兩位數的低位增長，而 R&R 將以中低個位數增長。關於近期需求，多戶家庭正在獲得動力，並將在未來幾個季度改善我們組合的多樣化。

CapEx guidance for 2022 is $275 million at the midpoint versus our prior estimate of $300 million due to continued supply chain delays. As we begin to close the books on 2022 and are in the midst of finalizing next year's budget, we thought it might be helpful to provide a reminder of our ability to weather a challenging operating environment.

由於供應鏈持續延遲，2022 年的資本支出指導為中點 2.75 億美元，而我們先前估計為 3 億美元。當我們開始關閉 2022 年的賬簿並正在敲定明年的預算時，我們認為提醒我們有能力度過充滿挑戰的運營環境可能會有所幫助。

We will provide our full 2023 demand outlook during our Q4 call in February. However, in the spirit of transparency and to give you a high-level sense of what our business is capable of, I'd like to provide you an illustrative example of single-family starts declining 20% to $800,000 next year from approximately $1 million in 2022. In that example, we believe we can sustain a double-digit EBITDA margin and deliver solid cash flow of over $1 billion, given our differentiated platform, consistent execution and disciplined operational management.

我們將在 2 月份的第四季度電話會議上提供 2023 年的完整需求展望。然而，本著透明的精神，為了讓您對我們的業務能力有一個高層次的認識，我想為您提供一個說明性的例子，說明明年單戶家庭的收入從大約 100 萬美元下降 20% 至 800,000 美元在 2022 年。在那個例子中，我們相信我們可以維持兩位數的 EBITDA 利潤率並提供超過 10 億美元的穩健現金流，因為我們有差異化的平台、一致的執行和嚴格的運營管理。

We are operating with a proactive mindset and have enhanced our already strong expense management processes to tightly control costs. Our premier positioning and robust operating platform have provided us with line of sight to more than $3 billion in free cash flow this year, a fortress balance sheet with no long-term debt maturities until 2030. And over $1.3 billion of liquidity to outperform into 2023 and beyond.

我們以積極主動的心態運營，並加強了我們已經強大的費用管理流程，以嚴格控製成本。我們卓越的定位和強大的運營平台為我們提供了今年超過 30 億美元的自由現金流、到 2030 年沒有長期債務到期的堡壘資產負債表。以及超過 13 億美元的流動性，以超越 2023 年的表現超越。

With that, let me turn the call back over to Dave for his closing remarks.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉回戴夫的閉幕詞。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

I want to close by reiterating the underlying strengths of our business that will enable us to gain share in any environment. We are the market leader in a highly fragmented industry. We have a growing portfolio of value-added products and solutions that resonate with our customers, making us a partner of choice. We have a diversified revenue stream and are constantly optimizing our capacity and operations for long-term growth.

最後，我想重申我們業務的潛在優勢，這將使我們能夠在任何環境中獲得份額。我們是高度分散的行業的市場領導者。我們擁有不斷增長的增值產品和解決方案組合，這些產品和解決方案與我們的客戶產生共鳴，使我們成為首選合作夥伴。我們擁有多元化的收入來源，並不斷優化我們的產能和運營以實現長期增長。

We are laser-focused on operational excellence, which adds to our competitive advantage. We take a disciplined approach to organic and inorganic growth with a long-term focus. We generate significant free cash flow which enables financial optionality in times of uncertainty, and we consistently generate solid returns while executing our long-term strategy.

我們專注於卓越運營，這增加了我們的競爭優勢。我們對長期關注的有機和無機增長採取嚴格的方法。我們產生大量自由現金流，在不確定時期實現財務選擇權，並且在執行長期戰略的同時，我們始終如一地產生可觀的回報。

Our industry is clearly experiencing deceleration versus the prior year, but we are not discouraged. We are confident in our ability to navigate through any market environment and we will remain proactive in implementing our downturn playbook to streamline costs and stay close to our customers and supply partners. We will continue to execute through near-term market volatility while keeping our sights on our long-term goals, our core values and our operating principles as our guidepost. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we have a very strong, seasoned and highly experienced leadership team that has succeeded through many prior cycles and knows how to deliver compounded shareholder value over the long term.

與前一年相比，我們的行業顯然正在經歷減速，但我們並不氣餒。我們對我們在任何市場環境中駕馭的能力充滿信心，我們將繼續積極實施我們的低迷劇本，以簡化成本並與我們的客戶和供應合作夥伴保持密切聯繫。我們將繼續在短期市場波動中執行，同時將我們的長期目標、核心價值觀和經營原則作為我們的指導方針。最後，也許也是最重要的一點，我們擁有一支非常強大、經驗豐富且經驗豐富的領導團隊，他們在之前的許多周期中都取得了成功，並且知道如何長期為股東創造複合價值。

Thank you again for joining us today. Todd, let's please open the call now for questions.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。托德，讓我們現在打開電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Matthew Bouley of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們將向巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley 提出第一個問題。

Congrats on the results. So the comments you made at the end there about sustaining a double-digit EBITDA margin in a scenario of 800,000 single-family starts. If I look at the Q4 guide, for example, I think you're implying something like a 70% decremental margin on EBITDA. I know we're kind of in that period of commodity normalization and loosening supply chain. But how does that decremental for Q4 kind of breakout between commodity and non-commodity? And then just kind of give us some comfort around what that decremental could look like in 2023 that sort of allows you to sustain that double-digit EBITDA margin?

祝賀結果。因此，您最後發表的評論是關於在 800,000 個單戶家庭開工的情況下維持兩位數的 EBITDA 利潤率。例如，如果我查看第四季度指南，我認為您的意思是 EBITDA 的利潤率下降了 70%。我知道我們正處於商品正常化和供應鏈放鬆的時期。但是，對於第四季度商品和非商品之間的突破，這種遞減是如何產生的呢？然後只是讓我們對 2023 年的遞減可能會是什麼樣子感到安慰，這讓您能夠維持兩位數的 EBITDA 利潤率？

Sure. Yes. No, that's a good question. I think what you're highlighting there is what we're seeing in the market in terms of a confluence of numbers happening at the same time. So if we think about what Q4 normally is just in a traditional year, it's a decelerating time for us due to seasonality.

當然。是的。不，這是個好問題。我認為你所強調的是我們在市場上看到的同時發生的數字彙合。因此，如果我們考慮第四季度通常只是在傳統年份，由於季節性，這對我們來說是一個減速時間。

We generally see a decline in commodity prices in those fall periods. And overall, the business is sort of buckling down for the win.

我們通常會看到商品價格在這些下跌期間下跌。總體而言，該業務有點為勝利而屈服。

This year, you overlay the market environment where you see a slowing market, you see a lot of the supply chain returning to normal and you see commodities decelerating into that as well as the seasonal decline. And so the trend, if you compare it to last year, obviously, is in the opposite direction in all of those categories. So what we're anticipating in that slower market is that decline in commodities, the decline in sales, some retrenching of the gross margins. We talked about that, I think, extensively over the last or so in terms of a return to normal over time.

今年，您將看到市場放緩的市場環境，您看到許多供應鏈恢復正常，您看到商品減速到這種情況以及季節性下降。因此，如果將其與去年進行比較，顯然，所有這些類別的趨勢都是相反的。因此，我們在這個放緩的市場中預期的是商品的下降，銷售額的下降，毛利率的一些縮減。我認為，我們在過去左右廣泛討論了這一點，隨著時間的推移恢復正常。

We're beginning to see all of those things play out. So that's really the dynamic in the fourth quarter. We've considered all of that in our discussion about where we think we would be at with 800,000 starts. We think that the normalized commodity prices, our ability to manage through the market as well as the strength of our business and our mix really will put us in a position to still be in that double-digit EBITDA space, considering all those factors.

我們開始看到所有這些事情都在發揮作用。所以這確實是第四季度的動態。我們在討論我們認為我們將在 800,000 次開始時的位置時考慮了所有這些。考慮到所有這些因素，我們認為標準化的商品價格、我們通過市場管理的能力以及我們的業務實力和我們的組合確實將使我們處於兩位數的 EBITDA 空間中。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then secondly, I wanted to ask about pricing. You guys mentioned a couple of times at the top that there has been pricing discipline in a supply-constrained market, but that market is now returning to less supply-constrained. I think if I play with your implied Q4 guide, I take what you said at the top around volumes tracking down low double digits. I could be wrong, but it seems like you might be implying that core pricing might also be negative in Q4. And please correct me if I'm wrong there. But just how are you guys thinking about price deflation on noncommodity products? And are you starting to feel more pushback from homebuilder customers there?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。其次，我想問一下定價。你們在頂部提到了幾次，在供應受限的市場中一直存在定價紀律，但該市場現在正在恢復供應受限的程度。我認為，如果我使用您隱含的第四季度指南，我會採用您在頂部所說的圍繞低兩位數追踪的交易量。我可能是錯的，但您似乎暗示第四季度的核心定價也可能為負。如果我錯了，請糾正我。但是你們如何看待非商品產品的價格通縮？您是否開始感受到來自那裡的房屋建築商客戶的更多阻力？

Well, I'm going to give my customers plenty of credit. We always see pushback, right? I think that the dynamic in terms of the margins and the way that we're seeing margins flow through as a result of supply is, as you'd expect, right? As more supply becomes available, becomes more competitive, and that's what we've baked in. We do think there will be a bit of gross margin progressing back towards normal.

好吧，我要給我的客戶足夠的信任。我們總是看到阻力，對吧？我認為，正如您所料，利潤率的動態以及我們看到利潤率因供應而流動的方式是，對吧？隨著更多的供應變得可用，變得更具競爭力，這就是我們所堅持的。我們確實認為會有一些毛利率恢復正常。

We won't get there in the fourth quarter. But certainly, heading that direction. Competition is increasing, as you would expect, and we're ready for that. We're ready for the battle as part of kind of who we are and what we do. I'm not sure that there's a lot of detail that I can provide you, now a lot of pullback from vendors in terms of their pricing pass-through. It slowed down a bit in terms of increases, but we haven't seen cuts in any material way, but that could happen.

我們不會在第四季度到達那裡。但可以肯定的是，朝著這個方向前進。正如您所料，競爭正在加劇，我們已為此做好準備。作為我們是誰和我們做什麼的一部分，我們已經為戰鬥做好了準備。我不確定我可以為您提供很多細節，現在供應商在定價傳遞方面有很多回調。它在增長方面有所放緩，但我們還沒有看到任何實質性的削減，但這可能會發生。

Yes. I think that last point is an important one there, Matt. I think the volumes, the allocations that we saw for the last couple of years have pretty much gone away. But to Peter's point, outside of the commodities, we have not seen price concessions from our suppliers to this point.

是的。我認為最後一點很重要，馬特。我認為我們在過去幾年看到的數量和分配已經幾乎消失了。但就彼得而言，在商品之外，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到供應商的價格讓步。

Our next question comes from Trey Grooms of Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Trey Grooms。

And I have to also say congrats on the great performance in the quarter.

我還必須祝賀本季度的出色表現。

Thanks, Trey.

謝謝，特雷。

So kind of just circling back for a little bit more clarity on that double-digit EBITDA margin you're referring to in that kind of single-family housing start around 800,000, Peter. And then also kind of going back to your long-term gross margin guide, 27%. I mean, you've talked about kind of margins progressing towards normal. Is that 27 kind of the -- if we kind of triangulate into that double digit, it seems like that's kind of the number you're pointing to in that environment. Am I off there? Or in that environment, is there a difference? And how should we think about that long-term number?

因此，彼得，您在那種單戶住宅中所指的兩位數 EBITDA 利潤率約為 800,000然後有點回到你的長期毛利率指導，27%。我的意思是，您已經談到了向正常發展的利潤率。是不是 27 種——如果我們對那個兩位數進行三角剖分，看起來這就是你在那個環境中指向的那種數字。我在那兒嗎？還是在那種環境下，有區別嗎？我們應該如何看待這個長期數字？

So the 2 pieces. The 800 is just an example. We want to give you a sense of where we think that double-digit EBITDA can be defended. This is all forecast. I don't want anybody writing this on stone tablets or anything, but it's what we think. I think we've got a good business. We know we've looked at our numbers 6 ways from Sunday, and we feel good about where we think we'll be even into a modestly down market.

所以2件。 800 只是一個例子。我們想讓您了解我們認為兩位數的 EBITDA 可以在哪裡得到保護。這都是預測。我不希望任何人在石碑或任何東西上寫下這個，但這是我們的想法。我認為我們的生意很好。我們知道我們已經從周日開始以 6 種方式查看了我們的數字，我們對我們認為我們甚至會進入一個適度下跌的市場感到滿意。

When it comes to the gross margins, we talked about 27% plus, somewhere north of 27% of normalized gross margin that we feel good about spending. There's a lot of question marks still about where things will settle out with margins given the dynamics in the marketplace. Certainly, it will be more challenging than it has been over the last year or 2 just because of the increased competition and the slower starts, but there's still reason to believe that improved discipline in the market, improved work within our organization about how we think about pricing will allow us to maintain a level north of 27%.

談到毛利率，我們談到了 27% 以上，高於我們對支出感覺良好的正常毛利率的 27% 以上。鑑於市場的動態，關於利潤將在哪裡得到解決，仍有很多問號。當然，由於競爭加劇和起步較慢，這將比過去一兩年更具挑戰性，但仍有理由相信市場紀律的改善，我們組織內部關於我們如何思考的工作關於定價將使我們保持在 27% 以上的水平。

Certainly not ready to give kind of refined guidance there. But a movement back from 35 towards that 27 is what we continue to point to and what we expect to see, both in Q4 but also in that sort of down 20% start, single-family starts metric that we threw out there.

當然還沒有準備好在那裡提供精緻的指導。但是，從 35 到 27 的運動是我們繼續指出的，也是我們期望看到的，無論是在第四季度，還是在我們拋出的那種下降 20% 的開局、單戶家庭開工指標中。

I would just add, just on the double-digit EBITDA margin, I think you'll recall that neither legacy company had double-digit EBITDA margins at those sort of start levels. And I think we've been talking a lot since the merger about the strength of the platform that we've built and the differentiation that we have, and we're confident that we will see that play out through the cycle.

我只想補充一點，就兩位數的 EBITDA 利潤率而言，我想你會記得，兩家傳統公司在這種起始水平上都沒有兩位數的 EBITDA 利潤率。而且我認為，自從合併以來，我們一直在談論我們建立的平台的實力和我們所擁有的差異化，我們相信我們將在整個週期中看到這一點。

Yes. No, that's -- I got that very loud and clear, and you guys are executing well with all of that. So hats off there. And on that, I guess the $100 million in productivity savings that you're talking about for the full year, how volume- or sales-dependent is that? And I guess how much of that would be sustainable in a year where if we were looking at that kind of housing start environment?

是的。不，那是 - 我的聲音非常響亮，而且你們在所有這些方面都表現得很好。所以脫掉帽子。關於這一點，我猜你所說的全年節省了 1 億美元的生產力，這對數量或銷售量有多大影響？而且我猜如果我們正在研究那種房屋開工環境，那麼在一年中，其中有多少是可持續的？

I'll start, and then I'll flip it over to Peter. When we outlined our forward projections and our financial plan at the Investor Day a year ago, we said importantly that we were targeting over the long term, 3% to 5% in fixed cost productivity. And what you're starting to see as that play out, and we started slowly through the integration of the merger and we put those synergies behind us, and we've stepped on the gas on operational excellence, and we continue to build momentum.

我會開始，然後我會把它交給彼得。一年前，當我們在投資者日概述我們的前瞻性預測和財務計劃時，我們重要地表示，我們的長期目標是固定成本生產率提高 3% 到 5%。你開始看到的結果是，我們通過合併的整合慢慢開始，我們把這些協同效應放在我們身後，我們已經踩到了卓越運營的動力，我們繼續建立動力。

So the clearest answer that I can give you is we believe we are building fundamental strengths in that area of the business. There's lots of opportunity to continue to optimize what we do and get more efficient, and we're confident that we're going to move towards that long-term target over time.

因此，我能給你的最明確的答案是，我們相信我們正在該業務領域建立基本優勢。有很多機會可以繼續優化我們的工作並提高效率，我們有信心隨著時間的推移朝著這個長期目標邁進。

Yes. And I guess all I would add there, Trey, is that while there will certainly be volume adjustments to certain items that are volume-driven, these are operational changes, right? We're tracking them as a finance organization to ensure that there's real P&L impact and things that have changed before and after. We're not just tracing volume improvements and telling you the leverage number. These are changes in operations, process, staffing expenses that you contract because we've done things differently to get rid of waste and improve our efficiency.

是的。我想我要補充的只是，Trey，雖然肯定會對某些由數量驅動的項目進行數量調整，但這些都是運營變化，對吧？我們將他們作為財務組織進行跟踪，以確保產生真正的損益影響以及前後發生的變化。我們不只是追踪交易量的改善並告訴您槓桿數字。這些是您簽約的運營、流程、人員費用方面的變化，因為我們採取了不同的做法來消除浪費並提高我們的效率。

We'll take our next question from Mike Dahl of RBC Capital Markets.

我們將向 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl 提出下一個問題。

So Peter, thanks for the additional color so far. One more follow-up on the '23 sensitivity. I appreciate it's a very high level at this point. If I think about, as you acknowledge, builder orders down 30% to 40% in recent months. The lag that, that hits you with in a starts environment of 800,000 or down 20 next year, it's possible that the lagged impact to you as potentially even worse. And so does that sensitivity contemplate that?

所以彼得，感謝到目前為止的額外顏色。關於 '23 敏感性的另一項後續行動。我很欣賞在這一點上這是一個非常高的水平。如果我考慮一下，正如你承認的那樣，最近幾個月建築商的訂單下降了 30% 到 40%。在 800,000 或明年下降 20 的啟動環境中對您造成的滯後影響，對您的滯後影響可能會更糟。那麼這種敏感性是否考慮到了這一點？

Or I guess, maybe ask the somewhat different way. That's the level. It sounds like you're comfortable saying you can defend double-digit margins. What type of decline would it take in your sensitivity to drive margins below double digits?

或者我猜，也許問一些不同的方式。就是這個水平。聽起來你很自在地說你可以捍衛兩位數的利潤率。將利潤率推低至兩位數以下，您的敏感度會出現何種下降？

Yes. I think it's a little early for us to dig in, Mike, on 2023. We certainly -- we're in the midst of our budgeting process here. We'll finish that up before the end of the year, as you'd expect. We certainly don't want to get ahead of our customers on any projections. As you know, it's a challenging market, and it's changing day by day. And we just gave that example as illustrative in the confidence. And as I said on the last question, we're in a different realm of capabilities in this organization and this company we've built than we were anytime in the past. So that was really illustrative and really didn't mean to opine on what starts may be next year. It's too early to tell.

是的。邁克，我認為我們在 2023 年開始研究還為時過早。我們當然 - 我們正處於我們的預算過程中。正如您所料，我們將在年底前完成這項工作。我們當然不想在任何預測上領先於我們的客戶。如您所知，這是一個充滿挑戰的市場，而且每天都在變化。我們只是舉了這個例子來說明信心。正如我在最後一個問題上所說的那樣，我們在這個組織和我們建立的這家公司的能力領域與過去任何時候都不同。所以這確實是說明性的，並不意味著對明年的開始情況發表意見。現在說還為時過早。

Got it. Okay. My second question, just on the capital allocation. Obviously, you've got free cash flow to support your goals this year and really nice buyback activity. You have leverage on the base business ticking up a bit. If you're looking out to next year and anticipating some core declines in the business, while you may throw off some strong free cash flow, it seems like it's possible that leverage could keep ticking up towards the upper end of your 1 to 2x range.

知道了。好的。我的第二個問題，只是關於資本配置。顯然，你有自由現金流來支持你今年的目標和非常好的回購活動。您對基礎業務的影響力有所上升。如果您展望明年並預計業務會出現一些核心下滑，而您可能會甩掉一些強勁的自由現金流，那麼槓桿似乎有可能會繼續上升到您的 1 到 2 倍範圍的上限.

So how are you thinking about the relative aggressiveness of your buyback program? You've got funding earmarked for M&A. You've been really aggressive on the buyback. Is it time to toggle that back a little bit? Or any thoughts on how you're looking at the buyback going forward?

那麼，您如何看待回購計劃的相對激進性？你已經獲得了專門用於併購的資金。你在回購方面非常激進。是時候稍微切換一下了嗎？或者對你如何看待未來的回購有任何想法？

Sure. Thanks for the question. So look, our capital allocation priorities have not and will not change through the downturn. We'll invest first in the future growth of the company, inside the company. We'll look at M&A next and we'll return capital to shareholders as our third priority. However, even in the M&A front, our pipeline is still very strong, valuations have to make sense, and the same thing around share repurchases.

當然。謝謝你的問題。所以看，我們的資本配置重點沒有也不會在經濟低迷時期改變。我們將首先投資於公司內部的未來發展。接下來我們將研究併購，並將資本返還給股東作為我們的第三要務。然而，即使在併購方面，我們的管道仍然非常強勁，估值必須合理，股票回購也是如此。

So we, to this point, Mike, have been very disciplined stewards of capital. We will be disciplined stewards of capital through the cycle. We've got a bulletproof balance sheet. We're very comfortable with that. Sure, to your point, our leverage may tick up some. We believe our cash flow will remain strong, and we're going to do the right things with our cash.

所以，到目前為止，邁克，我們一直是非常有紀律的資本管家。在整個週期中，我們將成為紀律嚴明的資本管家。我們有一個防彈的資產負債表。我們對此非常滿意。當然，就您的觀點而言，我們的槓桿可能會增加一些。我們相信我們的現金流將保持強勁，我們將用我們的現金做正確的事情。

We'll take our next question from Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets.

我們將向 BMO Capital Markets 的 Ketan Mamtora 提出下一個問題。

And congrats on a strong quarter. Peter, coming back to the example that you gave and whatever starts drop we may see next year, whether it is 10, 15, 20, whatever that number may be, but I'm just curious kind of how does that impact your base business EBITDA of $2.2 billion. It's not the margin, but just the absolute EBITDA. Should we think about it, with single-family as 3/4 of your total business, should we think about it as a similar drop in the base business EBITDA, should be greater, should be less? Any sort of high-level perspective on that will be helpful.

並祝賀一個強勁的季度。彼得，回到你給出的例子，明年我們可能會看到什麼開始下降，無論是 10、15、20，無論這個數字是多少，但我只是好奇這對你的基礎業務有何影響EBITDA 為 22 億美元。這不是利潤，而只是絕對 EBITDA。我們是否應該考慮一下，單戶家庭佔您總業務的 3/4，我們是否應該將其視為基本業務 EBITDA 的類似下降，應該更大，應該更少？任何對此的高級觀點都會有所幫助。

Sure. Yes. No, that's a great question. If you think about our base business, it really is representative of the core of our operations and how it is functioning at the combined entity post merger, but more importantly, through the cycle. So it is fair to expect we would see sales on the base business move based on starts. It's the best predictor of our business in the long run. Single-family starts, multi-family starts representing probably a combined 80% roughly of our overall sales.

當然。是的。不，這是一個很好的問題。如果您考慮我們的基礎業務，它確實代表了我們運營的核心以及它在合併後的實體中的運作方式，但更重要的是，它貫穿整個週期。因此，可以公平地預期我們會看到基礎業務的銷售額基於開工率而變化。從長遠來看，它是我們業務的最佳預測指標。單戶住宅開始，多戶住宅開始大概占我們總銷售額的 80%。

As you think about the dynamics within the space more broadly, there has also been, and we've talked about this a lot, a pretty significant impact on gross margins due to the supply chain issues. So certainly, we would expect gross margins to normalize a bit. If you think about the -- if you implement, as you described, a number of scenarios around single-family starts or all starts declining and you account for gross margins, there is some delevering that is going to happen in the overall business.

當您更廣泛地考慮該領域內的動態時，供應鏈問題也對毛利率產生了相當大的影響，而且我們已經對此進行了很多討論。所以當然，我們預計毛利率會稍微正常化。如果您考慮 - 如果您實施，如您所描述的，圍繞單戶家庭開始或全部開始下降的一些場景並且您考慮毛利率，那麼整個業務將會發生一些去槓桿化。

That's the nature of the math, right? We'll still be healthy. We'll still be very strong. but there is going to be a smaller amount of EBITDA to be gained on a smaller business with more competitive gross margins. So that's broadly how I would describe it. What I would say are the counterpoints to that is the increased investments we're making in value add, the share that we're gaining and the productivity improvements we're making in the business just to be better at what we do. So there's a balance there. That's what we're working through right now and are planning for '23 to be able to give you better dialed-in numbers.

這就是數學的本質，對吧？我們仍然會很健康。我們仍然會很強大。但在毛利率更具競爭力的小型企業中，EBITDA 將減少。這就是我對它的大致描述。我要說的是與此相反的是我們在增值方面的投資增加，我們獲得的份額以及我們在業務中所做的生產力改進只是為了更好地完成我們的工作。所以那裡有一個平衡。這就是我們目前正在解決的問題，併計劃在 23 年為您提供更好的撥入號碼。

No, this is great. Very helpful. And then one other follow-up question. So obviously, we are starting to see cancellation rates tick up, starts come down. But I'm just curious, how long do you think it will take for builders to work through sort of the current backlog of homes that are there? Is it sort of a 1- to 2-quarter event or less or more?

不，這很棒。非常有幫助。然後是另一個後續問題。所以很明顯，我們開始看到取消率上升，開始下降。但我只是好奇，你認為建築商需要多長時間才能完成目前積壓的房屋？它是 1 到 2 季度的活動還是更少或更多？

That's a great question. I really wish I knew the answer to that. On one hand, I think we've seen really nice trends in terms of those numbers of units. Those homes under construction in total stay quite high, which indicates there's some cushion there. The counterpoint is a little bit what we alluded to in the script today, we have seen a bigger decline in the early products. So say that another way, if you think about the construction cycle of a home, you're going to start with your framing lumber, you move to trusses, then windows and doors, we're seeing bigger declines on the earlier products which would indicate that we're starting to build through some of that unit under construction backlog. Timing of it, tough to say. I think the most common forecast that I've heard would be Q4, Q1, we would burn through the bulk of it, but I think it's just too early to say.

這是一個很好的問題。我真希望我知道答案。一方面，我認為就這些單位數量而言，我們已經看到了非常好的趨勢。那些在建的房屋總數保持在相當高的水平，這表明那裡有一些緩衝。對位就是我們今天在劇本中提到的一點點，我們已經看到早期產品的下降幅度更大。換一種說法，如果您考慮房屋的建造週期，您將從框架木材開始，然後移至桁架，然後是門窗，我們看到早期產品的降幅更大，這將表明我們正在開始建造一些正在建設中的積壓單元。時間到了，很難說。我認為我聽到的最常見的預測是第四季度、第一季度，我們會燒掉大部分，但我認為現在說還為時過早。

We'll take our next question from Adam Baumgarten of Zelman & Associates.

我們將向 Zelman & Associates 的 Adam Baumgarten 提出下一個問題。

Just going back to the September and October volume trends, maybe give us a sense for how the value-add business performed? Did it continue to outperform the overall business in a down environment?

回到 9 月和 10 月的銷量趨勢，或許能讓我們了解增值業務的表現如何？在低迷的環境中，它是否繼續跑贏整體業務？

It did. It did. There's a few reasons for that. I mean, obviously, we've invested in the value-add part of our business over the last year. So both in the form of internal investments, new capacity, better facilities, better automation, better productivity, but also in the inorganic side with the acquisitions we paid. Both of those have done well and then you layer on the other components, right, windows, doors and millwork, that's an area we've made a lot of investments in over the past really decade and that has yielded some really nice performance and ability to compete.

它做了。它做了。有幾個原因。我的意思是，很明顯，我們在去年投資了我們業務的增值部分。因此，無論是內部投資、新產能、更好的設施、更好的自動化、更高的生產力，還是我們支付的收購的無機方面。這兩個都做得很好，然後你在其他組件上分層，對，窗戶，門和木製品，這是我們在過去十年中進行了大量投資的領域，並且產生了一些非常好的性能和能力競爭。

So our focus in those areas is paying off. We think it will continue to do that. Now that isn't to say that we won't still face challenges in a market where there's fewer starts, but we think we're very, very well positioned to compete to win in that environment.

因此，我們在這些領域的關注正在取得成效。我們認為它將繼續這樣做。現在這並不是說我們不會在一個起步較少的市場中仍然面臨挑戰，但我們認為我們非常非常有能力在這種環境中競爭取勝。

Got it. And then maybe just some additional color on mybldr.com that launch that's coming up. It sounds like it's targeted towards smaller builders. Is that an incremental opportunity to the $1 billion that you guys have sized over time? And then maybe just maybe the market opportunity for that launch just in and of itself would be helpful.

知道了。然後可能只是 mybldr.com 上即將推出的一些額外顏色。聽起來它是針對小型建築商的。隨著時間的推移，這對你們已經確定的 10 億美元來說是一個增量機會嗎？然後，也許該發布本身的市場機會會有所幫助。

Yes. Very good question. And no, it's not incremental to the $1 billion. As we said, we bought a platform that was -- we were very excited about with Paradigm, but it was very narrowly focused again on window and door manufacturers in the retail side of the business. And as we said, we've been investing heavily in the development of that platform to build it out to be able to handle the whole house design and configuration.

是的。非常好的問題。不，這不是 10 億美元的增量。正如我們所說，我們購買了一個平台，我們對 Paradigm 感到非常興奮，但它再次非常狹隘地專注於零售業務的門窗製造商。正如我們所說，我們一直在對該平台的開發進行大量投資，以使其能夠處理整個房屋的設計和配置。

We're hitting a major milestone with that launch. And as we've said from the beginning, we are targeting this at the small builders first. So consistent with what we said, we're excited about that milestone. And there will be more to come over time. But 15, 16 months in, with the heavy lifting we have and continue to have on the development side, and we're excited to bring that forward.

我們正在通過這次發布達到一個重要的里程碑。正如我們從一開始就說過的，我們首先針對的是小型建築商。與我們所說的一致，我們對這個里程碑感到興奮。隨著時間的推移，還會有更多。但是 15 個月、16 個月後，我們在開發方面已經並繼續承擔著繁重的工作，我們很高興能將其向前推進。

We'll take our next question from Collin Verron of Jefferies.

我們將向 Jefferies 的 Collin Verron 提出下一個問題。

I just wanted to start back with your illustrative 20% decline in starts environment. Can you just provide some more color about the organic sales declines and the decremental margin assumptions that go into that? I ask just because you're taking share, especially from the value-add products, there could be some changes in core pricing. So there seems to be a lot of moving pieces here and beyond just the single-family starts. So any color there would be helpful.

我只是想從您說明性的啟動環境下降 20% 開始。您能否就有機銷售下降和其中的遞減利潤率假設提供更多顏色？我問只是因為你正在分享，特別是從增值產品中，核心定價可能會有一些變化。所以這裡似乎有很多動人的部分，而不僅僅是單戶家庭的開始。所以那裡的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Collin. Yes, I mean, to be honest, the goal wasn't to try and get into the dissection of the sub numbers. I think that my comments that -- to Ketan a little while ago are certainly applicable here and that we do anticipate there to be declines on a number of different areas. We think starts will go down. We think commodities will continue to revert back to that long-term average. And we think there'll be some regression to the historical norms in margins. Beginning to see that in the third and fourth quarters and certainly expect that to play out through the year.

科林。是的，我的意思是，老實說，我們的目標不是嘗試剖析子編號。我認為我剛才對 Ketan 的評論肯定適用於此，並且我們確實預計在許多不同領域都會出現下降。我們認為開工率會下降。我們認為大宗商品將繼續回到長期平均水平。而且我們認為利潤率的歷史標準會有一些倒退。在第三和第四季度開始看到這一點，並且當然希望它會在全年發揮作用。

But it's an environment where even with those pretty significant slowdown estimates included in the metric, we're still at double-digit margins. We're still in a position where we've got a market-leading platform where we've got investments in value-add and digital and improvements internally and our productivity is helping to lead us through a very difficult time with a very profitable business. So it's certainly inclusive of those factors. You're right, and we'll have a lot more detail for you as we get into the February announcement where we give the guide on '23.

但在這種環境下，即使指標中包含了那些相當顯著的放緩估計，我們仍然處於兩位數的利潤率。我們仍處於擁有市場領先平台的位置，在該平台上，我們在增值和數字化以及內部改進方面進行了投資，我們的生產力正在幫助我們度過非常困難的時期，並擁有非常有利可圖的業務.所以它肯定包含這些因素。您是對的，當我們進入 2 月份的公告時，我們將為您提供更多詳細信息，我們將在 23 年提供指南。

Okay. And then can you just touch on the M&A pipeline and your strategy here just given the weakening macro environment, what kind of purchase multiples you're seeing in the market and maybe how that's different from history?

好的。然後，鑑於宏觀環境的疲軟，您在市場上看到什麼樣的購買倍數，也許這與歷史有什麼不同，您能否在這裡談談併購渠道和您的策略？

Well, we've still got a very strong pipeline as we said for a while now. Valuation becomes the issue at times like this, right? And we've executed so far, 13 acquisitions since the merger, all we believe with high level of discipline on valuation. And we will continue to do that through the downturn. I expect that things may slow down a bit here for a while. And dependent upon the length and the severity of the downturn, the pipeline may get more active through the course of time. But again, I just want you to hear and understand we have been and will remain disciplined on valuations.

好吧，正如我們剛才所說的那樣，我們仍然擁有非常強大的管道。在這種情況下，估值成為問題，對吧？到目前為止，我們已經執行了 13 次收購，自合併以來，我們相信所有這些都具有高度的估值紀律。我們將在經濟低迷時期繼續這樣做。我預計事情可能會在這裡放慢一段時間。並且取決於經濟衰退的長度和嚴重程度，管道可能會隨著時間的推移變得更加活躍。但同樣，我只是想讓你聽到並理解我們在估值方面一直並將繼續保持紀律。

We'll take our next question from Reuben Garner of The Benchmark Company.

我們將向 Benchmark Company 的 Reuben Garner 提出下一個問題。

Congrats on the results in the quarter. So the value add versus the commodity or non-value-added businesses, can you talk about what you're seeing on the margin front so far in this quarter or towards the end of the last quarter? Have the value-added margins kind of held in better and commodities kind of already returned to "normal" or have they kind of progressed in a similar manner?

祝賀本季度的結果。因此，增值業務與商品或非增值業務的對比，您能否談談您在本季度或上一季度末的利潤率方面所看到的情況？增值利潤率是否保持得更好，大宗商品是否已經恢復“正常”，或者它們是否以類似的方式發展？

Yes. So good question. The margins have, as you did maybe expect, begun to return to normal, but led more by the commodity side than by the value-add side, right? Historically speaking, value-add, prices and margins are a bit stickier and commodities are just -- they move more quickly. They respond more quickly just given the volatility of that cost category in general. We would expect that to continue, right? We would expect it over time to normalize quicker. We just haven't gotten all the way yet. We've got a little bit of it.

是的。這麼好的問題。正如您所預料的那樣，利潤率已經開始恢復正常，但更多的是商品方面而不是增值方面，對吧？從歷史上看，增值、價格和利潤有點粘性，而商品只是——它們移動得更快。考慮到一般成本類別的波動性，他們的反應更快。我們希望這種情況繼續下去，對吧？我們預計隨著時間的推移它會更快地正常化。我們只是還沒有走到盡頭。我們有一點。

Got it. And then for the scenario that you provided for next year as well, I guess you mentioned facility rationalization. Any more detail that you can go into there? Is that mothballing of manufacturing capabilities? Is that just consolidation of distribution footprint? Is it none of those? And what kind of, I guess, savings are embedded in that outlook? You mentioned making some cost cuts to kind of weather the storm. Is there any kind of dollar amount that you could throw out there?

知道了。然後對於你為明年提供的場景，我猜你提到了設施合理化。還有更多細節可以介紹嗎？這是製造能力的封存嗎？這只是分銷足蹟的整合嗎？這些都不是嗎？我猜，什麼樣的儲蓄包含在這種前景中？你提到要削減一些成本以應對風暴。有沒有可以扔掉的美元金額？

Yes. I would just say that to this point, from the peak, we've taken out about 2,600 of our headcount and that peak being really at the end of the second quarter, early in the third quarter. We have rationalized or in the process of rationalizing 17 facilities. And to your question, I just want to be clear, we are not taking out manufacturing capacity.

是的。我只想說，到目前為止，從高峰開始，我們已經裁掉了大約 2,600 名員工，而這個高峰實際上是在第二季度末，第三季度初。我們已經合理化或正在合理化 17 個設施。對於你的問題，我只想說清楚，我們並沒有取消製造能力。

This is more consolidation primarily in some of the smaller markets where we may have redundant assets that given the last 2 years and the strength of the market, we have not needed to shut those facilities down. In fact, we've needed all that capacity that we've had, but times are different now. And so I really don't want to quantify any of that at this point. But as I said on the call, we will be proactive and decisive in actions given what happens in the marketplace.

這是更多的整合，主要是在一些較小的市場中，我們可能擁有多餘的資產，鑑於過去 2 年和市場的實力，我們不需要關閉這些設施。事實上，我們需要我們擁有的所有能力，但現在時代不同了。所以我現在真的不想量化這些。但正如我在電話會議上所說，鑑於市場上發生的情況，我們將採取積極主動和果斷的行動。

Our next question comes from Keith Hughes of Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Keith Hughes。

A question on multifamilies. Continues to be strong as you discussed in your guidance. I guess how long of a backlog or how long of a view do you have a multifamily continuing in anywhere near this kind of level?

關於多家庭的問題。正如您在指導中討論的那樣，繼續保持強大。我猜你有多長時間的積壓或多長時間的視圖在接近這種水平的任何地方繼續存在多戶家庭？

Keith, yes, thank you. Multifamily is a bright spot. I mean, as we've talked about, there is a need for housing people need a place to be, and it would appear that with the slowdown in single-family starts, multifamily is certainly staying strong. And we have a great franchise in that space. The ability to invest is something that we've stayed committed to our existing multifamily business on Truss and millwork we added to that with both Panel Truss and Trussway this year with acquisitions.

基思，是的，謝謝。多戶型是一個亮點。我的意思是，正如我們已經談到的，人們需要住房，而且隨著單戶住宅開工放緩，多戶住宅肯定會保持強勁勢頭。我們在該領域擁有出色的特許經營權。投資能力是我們一直致力於我們現有的桁架和木製品多家庭業務的東西，我們今年通過收購增加了面板桁架和桁架。

And right now, we've got over of $1 billion, $2 billion, $1.3 billion of backlog in that space that we know we're going to be able to meet throughout the year. Certainly feel good about the strength and the profitability of that business and as we bring the teams together and integrate them into a consolidated Builders FirstSource team, we're excited about what they're able to deliver. So we're certainly very optimistic in that space.

現在，我們知道我們將能夠在全年滿足的該領域的積壓訂單超過 10 億美元、20 億美元、13 億美元。當然，我們對該業務的實力和盈利能力感到滿意，當我們將團隊聚集在一起並將他們整合到一個整合的 Builders FirstSource 團隊中時，我們對他們能夠提供的東西感到興奮。所以我們在這個領域當然非常樂觀。

And on multifamily, activity planning and start activity slows down. What's kind of -- how long it take to show up in your numbers?

在多戶家庭中，活動計劃和開始活動會減慢。什麼樣的 - 出現在您的號碼中需要多長時間？

Generally, you're talking about multifamily being a substantially longer lead time. We usually say around 9 months. Yes, it's usually around 9 months versus 30 to 60 days probably on the single-family side. It does vary a bit, but that's a good average.

一般來說，您所說的多戶家庭的交貨時間要長得多。我們通常說9個月左右。是的，這通常是 9 個月左右，而單戶家庭可能需要 30 到 60 天。它確實有所不同，但這是一個很好的平均值。

Our next question comes from Stanley Elliott of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stanley Elliott。

Quick question on the Slide 8. You talked about some of the downside actions you guys are taking. With the double-digit EBITDA margin framework that you've laid out, is that saying that you basically need to complete all of these downside actions? Or can you hit those targets where you are? And I was thinking more just from a leverage standpoint into next year, should things decelerate from here?

關於幻燈片 8 的快速問題。您談到了你們正在採取的一些不利行動。使用您制定的兩位數 EBITDA 利潤率框架，是否意味著您基本上需要完成所有這些下行操作？或者你能擊中你所在的目標嗎？而且我更多地從槓桿的角度考慮到明年，事情應該從這裡減速嗎？

We didn't lead those actions directly to those double-digit EBITDA margin. That was more illustrative and given you an indication of the levers that we have to pull, depending upon how severe the downturn gets. And [Harvey Balls] there just show you that we're fairly early into acting on all that capability. So I wouldn't think about those as directly linked. But certainly, where the downturn gets severe, we will pull more and more leverage as time goes on.

我們沒有將這些行動直接導致兩位數的 EBITDA 利潤率。這更具說明性，並為您提供了我們必須拉動的槓桿的指示，具體取決於經濟衰退的嚴重程度。並且 [Harvey Balls] 只是向您展示了我們在所有這些能力上採取行動的時間相當早。所以我不會認為這些是直接相關的。但可以肯定的是，在經濟衰退變得嚴重的情況下，隨著時間的推移，我們將拉動越來越多的槓桿。

And I guess switching gears on the automation side. You talked about some high-return CapEx projects. Could you help us kind of where you are? I mean I saw the CapEx guide come down modestly. What are expectations for some of those projects? And how should we think about them at next year?

我猜想在自動化方面切換齒輪。您談到了一些高回報的資本支出項目。你能幫我們看看你在哪裡嗎？我的意思是我看到資本支出指南適度下降。對其中一些項目有什麼期望？明年我們應該如何看待它們？

Well, as we have been, we continue to invest heavily in automating our manufacturing facilities. We think that's the right long-term play. We think labor is going to be constrained in this industry and particularly skilled labor, which we need in our manufacturing facilities for a long time to come. We talked about our first fully automated fortress line that we started up in Georgia last quarter.

好吧，就像我們一樣，我們繼續大力投資於自動化我們的製造設施。我們認為這是正確的長期策略。我們認為，該行業的勞動力將受到限制，尤其是熟練的勞動力，我們的製造設施在未來很長一段時間內都需要這些勞動力。我們談到了我們上個季度在佐治亞州啟動的第一條全自動堡壘線。

And at that time, we said we had 8 more coming over the next couple of years, and we are fully committed to that and looking to future automation potential across our facilities. That's the right long-term play in any market. We will continue outside of maintenance of our facilities and refreshing our rolling stock. That is the single biggest area we'll deploy capital into the company going forward.

那時，我們說在接下來的幾年裡我們還會有 8 台，我們將全力以赴，並期待我們設施的未來自動化潛力。在任何市場上，這都是正確的長期策略。我們將繼續維護我們的設施和更新我們的機車車輛。這是我們未來將向公司投入資金的最大領域。

And sadly, given the strength of our balance sheet, we have the ability to do that even in a slower market. And I think taking advantage of those windows where we can actually get access to some of this equipment that we need, it is the right way to manage for the long term, right? We haven't been able to get all the trucks, we haven't been able to get all the equipment we need, but we do have the ability to continue to refresh the fleet and do what we need to, to have that equipment when we need it even right now when things are slowing down.

可悲的是，鑑於我們資產負債表的實力，即使在市場放緩的情況下，我們也有能力做到這一點。而且我認為利用那些我們實際上可以訪問我們需要的一些設備的窗口，這是長期管理的正確方法，對嗎？我們無法獲得所有卡車，我們無法獲得所需的所有設備，但我們確實有能力繼續更新車隊並做我們需要做的事情，以便在何時擁有這些設備即使現在事情正在放緩，我們也需要它。

Our next question comes from Kurt Yinger of D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kurt Yinger。戴維森。

First on the gross margin front, has the speed at which you've seen that start to normalize, I guess, in the latter part of Q3 and into Q4 surprised you at all? And then is that 27% kind of dependent upon a certain start assumption?

首先在毛利率方面，你看到的開始正常化的速度，我猜，在第三季度後期到第四季度，你是否感到驚訝？那麼這 27% 是否取決於某個起始假設？

Thank you for the question. So I think that the 27% is in a band of starts. I don't know if it's a specific number. And honestly, the 27% plus is unfortunately, at this stage, a bit hypothetical. We're going to have to watch the market and see how it pans out with the combined entity and the starts that we grapple with. Still feel good about it by what we've seen so far. I would tell you if I'm surprised on the gross margin side, just from a forecasting perspective. I would tell you I'm surprised it stayed as strong just as long as it has. It's done quite well. It's migrating down, but in a very measured way.

感謝你的提問。所以我認為 27% 處於起步階段。不知道是不是具體數字。老實說，不幸的是，在這個階段，27% 的增長有點假設。我們將不得不觀察市場，看看它如何與合併後的實體以及我們努力應對的開端相提並論。到目前為止，我們仍然對此感到滿意。如果我對毛利率方面感到驚訝，我會告訴你，只是從預測的角度來看。我會告訴你，我很驚訝它一直保持如此強大。它做得很好。它正在向下遷移，但是以一種非常有節制的方式。

Right. Okay. That's helpful. And then just lastly, I mean, as builders start to kind of zero in on the cost side with the loss of some pricing power and maybe trade availability becoming incrementally better, how do you think about that impacting the value proposition of some of the value-added offerings?

正確的。好的。這很有幫助。最後，我的意思是，隨著建築商在成本方面開始趨於零，失去了一些定價能力，而且貿易可用性可能會變得越來越好，你如何看待這會影響一些價值的價值主張-添加產品？

Yes. We're excited about the long-term potential of those value-added offerings in any market. You think about it, labor may be more readily available. But even in a downturn, efficiency at the job site matters for our customers. They're going to be doing a lot with a lot less people. They're going to take some of the same actions that we described that we're taking here.

是的。我們對這些增值產品在任何市場的長期潛力感到興奮。你想一想，勞動力可能更容易獲得。但即使在經濟低迷時期，工作現場的效率對我們的客戶來說也很重要。他們會用更少的人做很多事情。他們將採取一些與我們在這裡描述的相同的行動。

And any way that we can make their work more efficient, we believe we'll continue to get traction and continue to drive growth in those products. And to Peter's earlier comments, we haven't seen any slowdown in our value add on a relative basis compared to the rest of the business. We think our penetration will continue.

並且我們可以通過任何方式提高他們的工作效率，我們相信我們將繼續獲得牽引力並繼續推動這些產品的增長。根據彼得之前的評論，與其他業務相比，我們的增值相對而言沒有任何放緩。我們認為我們的滲透將繼續。

Our next question comes from Alex Rygiel with B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alex Rygiel 和 B. Riley。

Can you talk a bit about your inventory level, your comfort with it, how it compares to historical levels? And any other sort of inventory that could be sort of out in the channel, understanding that you are most of the channel?

你能談談你的庫存水平，你對它的舒適度，它與歷史水平相比如何？以及任何其他可能在渠道中出現的庫存，了解您是渠道的大部分？

Thanks, Alex. Yes. So inventory has been a real focus for us as we've observed the market, trying to make sure that we're we have the right amount on hand, right? We generally manage it on a days basis in the field ensuring that we're able to support the dynamics in the market. So that requires us to stay close to it up in -- during up and down moment.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。是的。因此，當我們觀察市場時，庫存一直是我們真正關注的焦點，試圖確保我們手頭有正確的數量，對嗎？我們通常在現場按天進行管理，以確保我們能夠支持市場動態。所以這需要我們在上下時刻保持接近它。

That said, I think we're in the right position. I think we've repositioned and cleared the decks on what we needed to. We talked a little bit about windows being an overhang. Certainly, we've made progress on that. A little bit more to go. But from a company -- total company perspective, it's pretty immaterial. So we're feeling pretty good. Certainly, there's always improvement, we can always optimize but certainly well within the band of where we'd like to be.

也就是說，我認為我們處於正確的位置。我認為我們已經重新定位並清理了我們需要的甲板。我們談了一點關於窗戶是懸垂的事情。當然，我們在這方面取得了進展。還有一點要走。但從一家公司——整個公司的角度來看，這並不重要。所以我們感覺很好。當然，總會有改進，我們總是可以優化，但肯定在我們想要的範圍內。

And then secondly, on Slide 17, that shows your estimated base business on certain commodity prices. It would appear that you didn't change it since the second quarter despite a number of acquisitions. Is there a sort of 2 or 3 simple explanations for them?

其次，在幻燈片 17 上，它顯示了您對某些商品價格的估計基礎業務。儘管進行了多次收購，但您似乎從第二季度開始就沒有改變它。對它們有 2 或 3 個簡單的解釋嗎？

Yes. We don't full year adjust the new acquisitions. It's just the part years. We're trying to keep it linked to the current look and then applying the normalized margins and the lumber prices. We've talked about a couple of different ways to update that sensitivity. We think we're going to have something that might be a little more helpful to folks when we do our Q4 announcement. But it has stayed the same. It has not moved materially primarily because it's just the part year additions for any M&A.

是的。我們不會全年調整新的收購。這只是部分年份。我們試圖將其與當前外觀聯繫起來，然後應用標準化的利潤率和木材價格。我們已經討論了幾種不同的方法來更新這種敏感性。我們認為，當我們發布第四季度公告時，我們可能會有一些對人們更有幫助的東西。但它一直保持不變。它沒有發生實質性的變化，主要是因為它只是任何併購的部分年度增加。

It appears we have no further questions at this time. This will conclude today's third quarter earnings call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

看來我們目前沒有進一步的問題。這將結束今天的第三季度財報電話會議。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。