(BLDR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Builders FirstSource Fourth Quarter 2023 and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Builders FirstSource 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約一小時，包括管理層的演講和問答環節。 （操作員說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Heather Kos, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Builders FirstSource. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給 Builders FirstSource 投資者關係高級副總裁 Heather Kos。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. With me on the call are Dave Rush, our CEO; and Peter Jackson, our CFO. The earnings press release and investor presentation are available on our website at investors.bldr.com. We will refer to the investor presentation during our call.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長 Dave Rush；和我們的財務長彼得傑克森。收益新聞稿和投資者簡報可在我們的網站 Investors.bldr.com 上取得。我們將在電話會議期間參考投資者的介紹。

The results discussed today include GAAP and non-GAAP results adjusted for certain items. We provide these non-GAAP results for informational purposes, and they should not be considered in isolation from the most directly comparable GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures where applicable and a discussion of why we believe they can be useful to investors in our earnings press release, SEC filings and presentation.

今天討論的結果包括針對某些項目調整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果。我們提供這些非 GAAP 結果僅供參考，不應將它們與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標分開考慮。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿、SEC 文件和簡報中找到這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與相應 GAAP 衡量標準（如果適用）的協調表，以及我們為何認為這些衡量標準對投資者有用的討論。

Our remarks in the press release, presentation and on this call contain forward-looking and cautionary statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act and projections of our future results. Please refer to the forward-looking statements section in today's press release and in our SEC filings for various factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements and projections.

我們在新聞稿、簡報和本次電話會議中的言論包含《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性和警示性聲明以及對我們未來業績的預測。請參閱今天新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的前瞻性陳述部分，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述和預測有重大差異的各種因素。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫。

Thank you, Heather. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. I'm proud of our full year results, which demonstrate the strength of our broad product portfolio and continued execution by our team members. Despite a challenging operating environment in 2023, which saw significant reduction in single-family starts, we delivered resilient results. As promised, we delivered a double-digit EBITDA margin in the high teens, along with robust free cash flow. We accomplished this through operational rigor and by closely partnering with our customers to help address their pain points through the use of our value-added solutions. Our results in 2023 further validate our strategy to be the easiest to do business with across the industry.

謝謝你，希瑟。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。我對我們的全年業績感到自豪，這證明了我們廣泛的產品組合的實力以及我們團隊成員持續執行的能力。儘管 2023 年的經營環境充滿挑戰，單戶住宅開工量大幅減少，但我們仍取得了富有彈性的業績。正如所承諾的那樣，我們實現了兩位數的 EBITDA 利潤率和強勁的自由現金流。我們透過嚴格的營運以及與客戶的密切合作來實現這一目標，透過使用我們的增值解決方案來幫助解決他們的痛點。我們 2023 年的業績進一步驗證了我們成為全產業最容易開展業務的策略。

I also want to thank everyone who participated both in person and virtually at our Investor Day in December, where we laid out the next leg of our growth journey. We're grateful for your ongoing support.

我還要感謝所有親自和虛擬參與 12 月份投資者日活動的人，我們在會議上規劃了下一步的成長之旅。我們感謝您一直以來的支持。

As we begin 2024, we are excited about the opportunities in front of us. We remain focused on profitable growth by leading with our value-added solutions, deploying our digital platform and expanding in desirable markets through our proven M&A strategy. These initiatives, along with our commitment to efficient operations and disciplined capital deployment will continue to compound long-term shareholder value.

2024 年開始，我們對眼前的機會感到興奮。我們透過領先的增值解決方案、部署我們的數位平台以及透過我們行之有效的併購策略在理想的市場中擴張，繼續專注於獲利成長。這些舉措以及我們對高效營運和嚴格資本部署的承諾將繼續增加長期股東價值。

Our investments in value-added and digital solutions are driving clear market differentiation, delivering greater efficiency and empowering the next generation of homebuilding. By leveraging our scale in value-added products, we are able to help meet our customers' needs, such as reducing cycle times, addressing labor constraints and improving home construction quality.

我們對增值和數位解決方案的投資正在推動明顯的市場差異化，提供更高的效率並為下一代住宅建設提供支援。透過利用我們在增值產品方面的規模，我們能夠幫助滿足客戶的需求，例如縮短週期時間、解決勞動力限制和提高房屋建築品質。

As a proof point of our execution, I'm pleased that our service levels were on time and in full have continued to improve year-over-year. Our on-time delivery was 90% in 2023, while our in full performance was 96%, with our investments in technology and automation, we'll keep working to drive these metrics higher. We remain committed to operational excellence and innovation to increase efficiency and create value. We have a robust set of operational and productivity initiatives and are focused on leveraging our scale and fixed costs while delivering the highest quality products to our customers.

作為我們執行力的證明，我很高興我們的服務水準按時、全面地逐年持續提升。到 2023 年，我們的準時交貨率為 90%，而我們的全面績效為 96%，透過我們在技術和自動化方面的投資，我們將繼續努力提高這些指標。我們仍然致力於卓越營運和創新，以提高效率和創造價值。我們擁有一套強大的營運和生產力計劃，專注於利用我們的規模和固定成本，同時為客戶提供最高品質的產品。

Our continuous improvement mindset employs technology, including our digital solutions, and automation to improve the construction process and drive greater discipline in our operations. As an important pillar of our strategy, we are focused on maintaining a fortress balance sheet. Our strong free cash flow provides financial flexibility and multiple high-returning paths for capital deployment, enabling our clear set of priorities. We continued our robust buyback program in 2023, repurchasing nearly $1.8 billion of shares.

我們持續改進的心態採用技術（包括我們的數位解決方案和自動化）來改善施工流程並推動我們的營運更加嚴格。作為我們策略的重要支柱，我們致力於維持堡壘式的資產負債表。我們強大的自由現金流為資本部署提供了財務靈活性和多種高回報路徑，使我們能夠確定明確的優先事項。 2023 年，我們繼續實施穩健的回購計劃，回購了近 18 億美元的股票。

I'm happy to announce that yesterday, our Board increased our share repurchase authorization to a total of $1 billion. We remain disciplined in our approach to tuck-in acquisitions and still have a long runway of targets in a fragmented market. Our focus areas for M&A include increasing our market position in desirable geographies extending our lead in value-added and specialty solutions and enhancing customer stickiness.

我很高興地宣布，昨天，我們的董事會將股票回購授權增加至 10 億美元。我們在進行收購時仍然保持紀律，並且在分散的市場中仍然有很長的目標。我們併購的重點領域包括提高我們在理想地區的市場地位，擴大我們在增值和專業解決方案方面的領先地位，並增強客戶黏著度。

Let's turn to our full-year highlights on Slide 4. We delivered strong margins in 2023, including a robust 17% adjusted EBITDA margin that underscores our differentiated product portfolio and scale. Our resilient gross margin of more than 35% reflects stronger mix and value-added products, notably in our multifamily business and improved manufacturing efficiencies.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 4 上的全年亮點。我們在 2023 年實現了強勁的利潤率，包括 17% 的強勁調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，突顯了我們差異化的產品組合和規模。我們超過 35% 的彈性毛利率反映了更強大的產品組合和增值產品，尤其是我們的多戶型業務和製造效率的提高。

As we have communicated, we continue to see some normalization in core margins. We are also seeing multifamily normalize and expect it to continue over the course of this year.

正如我們所傳達的，我們繼續看到核心利潤率出現一定程度的正常化。我們也看到多戶家庭的正常化，並預計這種情況將在今年持續下去。

Looking at Slide 5, I want to highlight the over 30% improvement in our recordable incident rate in 2023, which is a remarkable achievement. At BFS, the safety of our team members is always our highest priority, and I am proud of the culture we have created to be a safer company every day. I'm also excited to see the structural improvements we are making to remove excess cost and operate more efficiently. Our strong productivity savings of $175 million for 2023, reflect the hard work we are doing on targeted initiatives, and we expect another $100 million of productivity savings in 2024.

看投影片 5，我想強調 2023 年我們的可記錄事故率提高了 30% 以上，這是一項了不起的成就。在 BFS，團隊成員的安全始終是我們的重中之重，我為我們每天創造的成為更安全的公司的文化感到自豪。我也很高興看到我們正在進行結構性改進，以消除多餘的成本並提高營運效率。到 2023 年，我們在生產力方面將節省 1.75 億美元，這反映了我們在有針對性的舉措上所做的努力，我們預計 2024 年在生產力方面將再節省 1 億美元。

Prudent SG&A expense management also remains a key focus area. This includes the ongoing optimization of our footprint and balancing the need for cost reductions against future capacity demands. We remain disciplined stewards of discretionary spending, and our team has responsibly manage costs in the short term while executing our strategy for the long term.

審慎的銷售、一般行政費用管理也仍然是重點關注領域。這包括不斷優化我們的足跡，並平衡降低成本的需求與未來的容量需求。我們仍然嚴格控制可自由支配支出，我們的團隊在執行長期策略的同時，負責任地管理短期成本。

As expected, we had a strong year in multifamily as prior year acquisitions were supercharged by a strong market. Multifamily remained a tailwind in Q4 as we worked through record backlog. For single family, lower mortgage rates and low existing home inventories have helped us steady activity levels. National builder customers have done a good job of utilizing specs in conjunction with interest rate buydowns to provide homebuyers with affordable options to purchase new homes.

正如預期的那樣，我們在多戶住宅領域度過了強勁的一年，因為強勁的市場推動了前一年的收購。隨著我們處理創紀錄的積壓，多戶型住宅在第四季度仍然是一個推動因素。對於單戶家庭來說，較低的抵押貸款利率和較低的現有房屋庫存幫助我們穩定了活動水準。全國建築商客戶在利用規格與利率購買相結合方面做得很好，為購房者提供了負擔得起的購買新房的選擇。

Our focus this year is on being the best partner to our customers by providing the highest quality customer service, driving our robust value-added solutions and launching our BFS digital tools to make the building process faster, more efficient and more affordable.

今年我們的重點是成為客戶的最佳合作夥伴，提供最優質的客戶服務，推動我們強大的增值解決方案，並推出我們的 BFS 數位工具，使建築過程更快、更有效率、更實惠。

Turning to M&A on Slide 6. We continue to target attractive opportunities while remaining financially disciplined. In 2023, we completed 7 deals with aggregate 2022 sales of roughly $540 million. Early in the fourth quarter, we acquired Standale Lumber, which gives us a strong presence in the growing Grand Rapids, Michigan market. Then in December, we acquired Encore Building Products a leading building materials distributor that represents our entry into the Arkansas market and will serve as our platform for future growth in the state.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的併購。我們繼續瞄準有吸引力的機會，同時保持財務紀律。 2023 年，我們完成了 7 筆交易，2022 年總銷售額約 5.4 億美元。第四季初，我們收購了 Standale Lumber，這使我們在不斷增長的密西根州大急流城市場中佔據了強大的地位。然後在 12 月，我們收購了領先的建築材料經銷商 Encore Building Products，這代表我們進入阿肯色州市場，並將作為我們在州內未來發展的平台。

And in early February, we acquired Quality Door and Millwork, a leading distributor of millwork, doors and windows in Southern Idaho. We are excited to welcome these talented new team members to the BFS family. We also show how our M&A and organic investments increased value-added products as a percent of our overall mix by 700 basis points over the past 2 years. Our success with this strategy has been a core component of our improved margin profile through the cycle.

2 月初，我們收購了愛達荷州南部領先的木製品、門窗經銷商 Quality Door and Millwork。我們很高興歡迎這些才華橫溢的新團隊成員加入 BFS 大家庭。我們也展示了我們的併購和有機投資如何在過去 2 年中將增值產品占我們整體產品組合的百分比提高了 700 個基點。我們在這項策略上的成功是我們在整個週期中改善利潤狀況的核心組成部分。

On Slide 7, we provide an update on capital allocation. During the fourth quarter, we made 2 tuck-in acquisitions and repurchased over $200 million of shares while maintaining the strong balance sheet. And for all of 2023, we prudently deployed approximately $2.5 billion, in line with our stated priorities. We have cumulatively deployed approximately $6.1 billion from 2022 through 2023, and we communicated a new goal at our Investor Day this past December to deploy $5.5 billion to $8.5 billion of capital from 2024 to 2026.

在投影片 7 中，我們提供了資本配置的最新情況。第四季度，我們進行了兩次收購併回購了超過 2 億美元的股票，同時維持了強勁的資產負債表。 2023 年全年，我們根據既定優先事項審慎部署了約 25 億美元。從2022 年到2023 年，我們已累計部署了約61 億美元，並且我們在去年12 月的投資者日上傳達了一個新目標，即從2024 年到2026 年部署55 億美元到85 億美元的資本。

Now let's turn to Slides 8 and 9 for an update on our digital strategy. We are establishing a differentiated position as the only provider of an end-to-end digital platform in our space. Combined with our leading operating model and strong relationships, we believe BFS digital tools will be a substantial driver of growth for us and transformative for the industry.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 8 和 9，了解我們數位化策略的最新情況。作為我們領域唯一的端到端數位平台供應商，我們正在建立差異化的地位。結合我們領先的營運模式和牢固的關係，我們相信 BFS 數位工具將成為我們成長的重要推動力，並為產業帶來變革。

Our easy-to-use myBLDR.com portal will seamlessly deliver our full digital capabilities to our customers. It is designed to create efficiencies for our team members and improve service for our customers by offering increased transparency and engagement in the homebuilding process. Combined with our proprietary estimating and configuration tools, our customers will have more control over the entire building process. This will save both time and money for both our customers and their clients while making the homebuilding process more personalized.

我們易於使用的 myBLDR.com 入口網站將無縫地向客戶提供我們完整的數位功能。它旨在透過提高住宅建設過程的透明度和參與度，為我們的團隊成員提高效率並改善為客戶提供的服務。結合我們專有的估算和配置工具，我們的客戶將更好地控制整個建築過程。這將為我們的客戶及其客戶節省時間和金錢，同時使住宅建設過程更加個人化。

We are excited to showcase the full digital product capabilities at the International Builders Show next week. To drive the adoption of these innovative solutions, we have focused on training our sales and operations teams to help our customers leverage these powerful new tools.

我們很高興能在下週的國際建築商展上展示完整的數位產品功能。為了推動這些創新解決方案的採用，我們專注於培訓我們的銷售和營運團隊，以幫助我們的客戶利用這些強大的新工具。

We are confident in our ability to deliver value from our digital solutions and meet our target of $200 million of incremental digital revenue by the end of this year and $1 billion by 2026 as we grow wallet share and then new customers.

我們對透過數位解決方案創造價值的能力充滿信心，並隨著錢包份額和新客戶的增加，實現今年年底增加 2 億美元數位收入和到 2026 年增加 10 億美元數位收入的目標。

Throughout the year, we acknowledge team members that go above and beyond. Rich Rapuzzi, market manager in our Alaska market embodies these values like no other. I had the pleasure of spending time with Rich recently and witnessed the positive impact he has made on his team during his remarkable 50-year career at BFS and Legacy companies. Rich's journey started as a customer service rep in 1974 and is rooted in hands-on experience and continuous learning. Through his career, Rich established vital departments and assumed multiple leadership roles. What truly sets Rich apart is his passion for his community and mentoring others. His colleagues will tell you that he deeply cares about helping people reach their potential. As Rich prepares for retirement later this year, his impact will endure through the lives he has touched. While he'll be greatly missed, his legacy will resonate within our organization for years to come.

全年，我們都會表彰那些超越自我的團隊成員。我們阿拉斯加市場的市場經理 Rich Rapuzzi 獨一無二地體現了這些價值。最近，我很高興與 Rich 共度時光，見證了他在 BFS 和 Legacy 公司 50 年非凡職業生涯中對團隊的積極影響。 Rich 的職業生涯始於 1974 年，擔任客戶服務代表，植根於實務經驗和持續學習。在他的職業生涯中，里奇建立了重要的部門並擔任了多個領導職務。真正讓 Rich 與眾不同的是他對社區和指導他人的熱情。他的同事會告訴您，他非常在意幫助人們發揮潛能。隨著里奇準備在今年晚些時候退休，他的影響將持續到他所接觸過的人們的生活中。雖然我們會非常懷念他，但他的遺產將在未來幾年在我們的組織內引起共鳴。

I'll now turn the call over to Peter to discuss our financial results in greater detail.

我現在將把電話轉給彼得，更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Our results throughout the year demonstrate the effectiveness of our operating model regardless of the macro environment. Our fortress balance sheet, strong cash flow generation and ability to prudently deploy capital to the highest return opportunities, including acquisitions and share repurchases, continues to deliver value and positions us for long-term success. We are leveraging our sustainable competitive advantages and strong financial position to drive future growth and create value for our shareholders.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。無論宏觀環境如何，我們全年的業績都證明了我們營運模式的有效性。我們堡壘般的資產負債表、強勁的現金流產生以及審慎地將資本部署到最高回報機會（包括收購和股票回購）的能力，繼續創造價值，並使我們取得長期成功。我們正在利用我們可持續的競爭優勢和強大的財務狀況來推動未來的成長並為股東創造價值。

I will cover 3 topics with you this morning. First, I'll recap our fourth quarter and full year results. Second, I'll provide an update on capital deployment. And finally, I'll discuss our full year 2024 guidance and related assumptions.

今天早上我將與大家討論 3 個主題。首先，我將回顧我們第四季和全年的業績。其次，我將提供有關資本部署的最新情況。最後，我將討論我們 2024 年的全年指導和相關假設。

Let's begin by reviewing our fourth quarter performance on Slides 10 and 11. We delivered $4.2 billion in net sales, driven by a 1% decline in core organic sales and commodity deflation of 5%, partially offset by growth from acquisitions of roughly 2%. The core organic sales were driven by a single-family decline of 4% amid a weak housing market and share in supply chain normalization.

讓我們先回顧一下幻燈片10 和11 上我們第四季度的業績。我們實現了42 億美元的淨銷售額，這是由核心有機銷售額下降1% 和商品通貨緊縮5% 推動的，但部分被約2% 的收購成長所抵銷。由於房地產市場疲軟和供應鏈正常化，單戶住宅下降 4%，推動了核心有機銷售。

That said, there are signs that the single-family market is starting to pick up. Our early cycle products are beginning to show growth, including high single digits growth in lumber and mid-single digits growth in truss. Multifamily grew by more than 4% driven by our prior year acquisitions as well as favorable margins. R&R and other also grew by over 4% due to increased sales focus and capacity versus 2022.

儘管如此，有跡象顯示單戶住宅市場正在開始回升。我們的早期週期產品開始出現成長，包括木材的高個位數成長和桁架的中個位數成長。在我們上一年的收購以及有利的利潤率的推動下，多戶住宅成長了 4% 以上。與 2022 年相比，由於銷售重點和產能增加，R&R 和其他業務也成長了 4% 以上。

Importantly, value-added products represented 52% of our net sales during the fourth quarter, reflecting our position as the supplier of choice for these higher-margin products. During the fourth quarter, gross profit was $1.5 billion, a decrease of approximately 1% compared to the prior year period. Gross margins were 35.3%, increasing 120 basis points mainly due to productivity and a tailwind from multifamily, partially offset by core organic margin normalization.

重要的是，增值產品占我們第四季淨銷售額的 52%，反映了我們作為這些高利潤產品首選供應商的地位。第四季毛利為15億美元，比去年同期下降約1%。毛利率為 35.3%，成長 120 個基點，主要是由於生產力和多戶住宅的推動，但部分被核心有機利潤率正常化所抵消。

SG&A increased by $16 million to $974 million, mainly due to higher variable compensation, acquired operations and inflation, partially offset by lower customer reserve expenses. As a percentage of net sales, total SG&A increased 150 basis points to 23.5%, primarily attributable to decreased fixed cost leverage from lower sales.

SG&A 增加了 1,600 萬美元，達到 9.74 億美元，主要是由於可變薪酬、收購業務和通貨膨脹的增加，部分被客戶儲備費用的減少所抵消。 SG&A 總額佔淨銷售額的百分比增加了 150 個基點，達到 23.5%，這主要是由於銷售額下降導致固定成本槓桿下降。

Adjusted EBITDA was $686 million, down approximately 2%, primarily driven by lower net sales due to a weak housing market and commodity deflation. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.5%, up 50 basis points from the prior year as we continue to execute and drive improved productivity across the business. Adjusted net income of $439 million was down $32 million from the prior year due to lower net sales. Adjusted earnings per diluted share was $3.55, an increase of 11% compared to the prior year. On a year-over-year basis, share repurchases added roughly $0.55 per share for the fourth quarter.

調整後 EBITDA 為 6.86 億美元，下降約 2%，主要是由於房地產市場疲軟和大宗商品通貨緊縮導致淨銷售額下降。隨著我們繼續執行並推動整個業務生產力的提高，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 16.5%，比上年增長 50 個基點。由於淨銷售額下降，調整後淨利潤為 4.39 億美元，比上年減少 3,200 萬美元。調整後每股攤薄收益為 3.55 美元，較上年增長 11%。與去年同期相比，第四季股票回購增加了每股約 0.55 美元。

Now let's turn to our cash flow, balance sheet and liquidity on Slide 12. Our 2023 operating cash flow was approximately $2.3 billion, down $1.3 billion compared to the prior year period, mainly attributable to commodity deflation and a shrinking housing market. Capital expenditures for the year were $430 million, all in, we delivered healthy free cash flow of approximately $1.9 billion. For the year, our free cash flow yield was approximately 13% while operating cash flow return on invested capital was 28%.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片12 上的現金流、資產負債表和流動性。我們2023 年的營運現金流約為23 億美元，比上年同期減少13 億美元，主要歸因於大宗商品通貨緊縮和房地產市場萎縮。今年的資本支出為 4.3 億美元，總而言之，我們實現了約 19 億美元的健康自由現金流。今年，我們的自由現金流收益率約為 13%，而投資資本的營運現金流收益率為 28%。

Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 1.1x, while base business leverage was 1.4x. Excluding our ABL, we have no long-term debt maturities until 2030. At quarter end, our total liquidity was approximately $1.3 billion consisting of $1.27 billion and net borrowing availability under the revolving credit facility and $70 million of cash on hand.

我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率約為 1.1 倍，而基本業務槓桿率為 1.4 倍。不包括我們的ABL，我們在2030 年之前沒有長期債務到期。截至季度末，我們的總流動性約為13 億美元，其中包括12.7 億美元和循環信貸安排下的可用淨借款以及7000 萬美元的手頭現金。

Moving to capital deployment. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.6 million shares for $209 million at an average stock price of $131.74 per share. For the full year of 2023, we repurchased nearly $1.8 billion of shares at an average price of $100.49 per share. As Dave mentioned, the Board approved the repurchase of up to $1 billion of common stock, inclusive of the approximately $200 million remaining on the prior share repurchase plan authorized in April of 2023.

轉向資本部署。第四季度，我們以 2.09 億美元的價格回購了約 160 萬股股票，平均股價為每股 131.74 美元。 2023年全年，我們以每股100.49美元的平均價格回購了近18億美元的股票。正如戴夫所提到的，董事會批准了最多 10 億美元的普通股回購，其中包括 2023 年 4 月授權的先前股票回購計畫中剩餘的約 2 億美元。

We remain disciplined stewards of capital and have multiple paths for value creation to approve an ability to deploy capital and deliver high returns.

我們仍然是嚴格的資本管理者，並擁有多種價值創造途徑，以認可部署資本和提供高回報的能力。

Now let's turn to our outlook on Slide 13. For full year 2024, we expect total company net sales to be $17.5 million to $18.5 billion. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be $2.4 billion to $2.8 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin is forecasted to be 14% to 15%, and we are guiding gross margins to a range of 30% to 33%. Our recent above normal margins reflect a greater mix of value-added products, along with the disciplined pricing required to offset increased operating costs. As we move through the year, we expect both our gross margins and the multifamily business to continue to normalize. We expect full year 2024 free cash flow of $1 billion to $1.2 billion. The change from 2023 is primarily due to an expected $500 million year-over-year decrease due to working capital as we move from shrinking to growing sales.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 13 的展望。對於 2024 年全年，我們預計公司總淨銷售額為 1750 萬美元至 185 億美元。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 為 24 億至 28 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計為 14% 至 15%，我們將毛利率指導為 30% 至 33%。我們最近高於正常水準的利潤率反映出更多的增值產品組合，以及抵銷增加的營運成本所需的嚴格定價。隨著這一年的推移，我們預計我們的毛利率和多戶型業務將繼續正常化。我們預計 2024 年全年自由現金流為 10 億至 12 億美元。與 2023 年相比，這項變更主要是由於隨著我們的銷售額從萎縮轉向成長，營運資金預計將年減 5 億美元。

The free cash flow forecast assumes average commodity prices in the range of $400 to $440 per thousand board foot. Our 2024 outlook is based on several assumptions. Please refer to our earnings release and Slide 14 of the investor presentation for a list of these key assumptions.

自由現金流預測假設平均商品價格在每千板英尺 400 至 440 美元之間。我們的 2024 年展望是基於多項假設。請參閱我們的收益報告和投資者簡報的幻燈片 14，以了解這些關鍵假設的清單。

As you all know, we do not typically give quarterly guidance, but we wanted to provide directional color for Q1. On a year-over-year basis, we expect Q1 net sales to be flat to down low single digits. As we have lost roughly 2 days of sales due to inclement weather conditions at the start of the year. Year-over-year adjusted EBITDA is expected to be down high teens to low 20s in Q1 given the impact of extreme weather and continued margin and share normalization. We expect our sales to rebound as the severe weather conditions subside. Regardless, we remain optimistic for a healthy housing market in 2024.

眾所周知，我們通常不會提供季度指導，但我們希望為第一季提供方向性色彩。與去年同期相比，我們預計第一季淨銷售額將持平或降低個位數。由於年初的惡劣天氣條件，我們損失了大約兩天的銷售額。鑑於極端天氣的影響以及持續的利潤率和份額正常化，第一季調整後的 EBITDA 年比預計將下降 10 多歲至 20 多歲。我們預計，隨著惡劣天氣的消退，我們的銷售額將會反彈。無論如何，我們對 2024 年房地產市場的健康發展仍持樂觀態度。

Turning to Slides 15 and 16. As a reminder, our base business approach showcases the underlying strength and profitability of our company by normalizing sales and margins for commodity volatility. This helps to clearly assess the core aspects of the business where we have focused our attention to drive sustainable outperformance.

轉向投影片 15 和 16。提醒一下，我們的基本業務方法透過使商品波動的銷售和利潤正常化來展示我們公司的潛在實力和盈利能力。這有助於清楚地評估我們重點關注的業務核心方面，以推動可持續的卓越績效。

Our base business guide on net sales for 2024 is approximately $17.6 billion. Our base business adjusted EBITDA guide is approximately $2.4 billion at a margin of 13.5%.

我們的 2024 年淨銷售額基本業務指南約為 176 億美元。我們的基本業務調整後 EBITDA 指南約為 24 億美元，利潤率為 13.5%。

As I wrap up, I want to reiterate that we are confident in the near-term outlook, our exceptional positioning to execute our strategic goals and our ability to create shareholder value in any environment to support profitable growth.

在結束演講時，我想重申，我們對近期前景、執行戰略目標的卓越定位以及在任何環境下創造股東價值以支持盈利增長的能力充滿信心。

With that, let me turn the call back over to Dave for some final thoughts.

接下來，讓我將電話轉回給戴夫，以徵求一些最後的想法。

Thanks, Peter. Let me close by saying that we are focused on executing our strategic pillars. This focus, along with our close partnership with our customers to address their pain points is a competitive differentiator in our industry. We are the unquestioned leader in value-added solutions, which we believe are the most effective way to address labor and cycle time challenges. Our industry-leading digital innovations are bringing greater efficiency to homebuilding and will win us new customers and grow wallet share along the way. Our robust free cash flow generation is funding a disciplined capital deployment strategy that will compound long-term shareholder value. While 2023 was an exciting year, we are just getting started.

謝謝，彼得。最後我要說的是，我們專注於執行我們的策略支柱。這種專注，以及我們與客戶密切合作以解決他們的痛點，是我們行業的競爭優勢。我們是增值解決方案領域無可爭議的領導者，我們相信這是解決勞動力和週期時間挑戰的最有效方法。我們領先業界的數位創新正在為住宅建設帶來更高的效率，並將為我們贏得新客戶並一路增加錢包份額。我們強勁的自由現金流產生正在為嚴格的資本部署策略提供資金，從而實現長期股東價值的複合。雖然 2023 年是激動人心的一年，但我們才剛開始。

Thank you again for joining us today. Operator, let's please open the call now for questions.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。接線員，我們現在請打開電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

（操作員指示）我們先去找巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

So to start off with on the gross margin, of course, exiting '23 over 35%. I hear you. There is still some multifamily normalizing to come. But it looks like you're guiding to volume growth, of course, in your single-family business this year, and I assume there's some operating leverage there in your manufacturing. I think I heard Dave say that there's another $100 million in productivity this year. And I don't know if you're assuming value-add mix would continue to rise, and that's on top of everything you've done around automation and consolidating the industry and so forth in recent years.

首先是毛利率，23 年退出時的毛利率超過 35%。我聽到了。多戶家庭的正常化仍有待到來。但看起來你們今年的單一家族企業當然正在引導銷售成長，而且我認為你們的製造業有一些營運槓桿。我想我聽 Dave 說過今年的生產力還有 1 億美元。我不知道您是否認為增值組合會繼續上升，這是您近年來在自動化和行業整合等方面所做的一切的基礎。

So my point is it seems like you've got a lot of tailwinds this year. I guess, where am I being too optimistic? And what's kind of the cadence, timing of gross margins normalizing back to below 33%?

所以我的觀點是，今年似乎有很多順風車。我想，我哪裡太樂觀了？毛利率恢復到 33% 以下的節奏和時間是怎麼樣的？

Thanks, Matt. Your points are all accurate. I think that we've done a really nice job in the value-add sector. I think we've managed pricing in a disciplined way. We certainly have done a good job on productivity and continuing to execute in that category. And certainly, a portion of that hits gross margins, not all of it. What I think is continuing to happen, and I know this is a consistent theme from us, but we want to continue to be candid with investors. There is a normalization that we're seeing in the core and there's a normalization or maybe a recognition of a cycle in multifamily. Those are the 2 really big components driving the ongoing normalization that we expect in 2024.

謝謝，馬特。你的觀點都是準確的。我認為我們在增值領域做得非常好。我認為我們以嚴格的方式管理定價。當然，我們在生產力方面做得很好，並繼續在該類別中執行。當然，其中一部分會影響毛利率，而不是全部。我認為正在繼續發生的事情，我知道這是我們一貫的主題，但我們希望繼續對投資者坦誠。我們在核心中看到了一種正常化，並且存在一種正常化，或者可能是對多家庭循環的認識。這些是推動我們預計 2024 年將持續正常化的兩個真正重要組成部分。

So multifamily, as we look at it, certainly a dynamic market, but there's been a pullback, right? A lot of multifamily units were put in the ground over the last few years, the backlog has been very full, very healthy, and we've done very, very well. There are clear signals both in the broader market and in our numbers that multifamily is normalizing. It's pulling back, and it's going to pull back pretty aggressively. We expect we'll start seeing that in sort of Q1 based on the latest information, and it will hit us all year. So certainly, multifamily is a good business, but there's a headwind there associated with that business shrinking.

因此，正如我們所看到的，多戶住宅無疑是一個充滿活力的市場，但也出現了回落，對嗎？在過去的幾年裡，許多多戶單位被投入使用，積壓的訂單非常充足，非常健康，我們做得非常非常好。從更廣泛的市場和我們的數據來看，都有明確的訊號表明多戶住宅正在正常化。它正在回落，而且回落得相當猛烈。我們預計，根據最新消息，我們將在第一季開始看到這一點，並且它將全年影響我們。當然，多戶住宅是一項不錯的業務，但這項業務的萎縮也帶來了阻力。

And we continue to see in pockets around the country, the normalization of margins in a competitive environment, right? We're well below what we would consider to be normal starts -- normal single-family starts in this industry. So it's competitive out there. And there are certain markets where we've had to get aggressive, and we'll continue to do that to protect our position and to win in the market and to be the customer of choice. We don't think it's putting us outside of that communicated range for gross margin, but certainly expect that to continue to erode as the year progresses.

我們繼續在全國各地看到競爭環境中利潤率的正常化，對嗎？我們的開工率遠低於我們所認為的正常開工率——該行業的正常單戶開工率。所以它是有競爭力的。在某些市場上，我們必須積極進取，我們將繼續這樣做，以保護我們的地位，贏得市場並成為客戶的首選。我們認為這不會使我們超出所傳達的毛利率範圍，但當然預計隨著時間的推移，毛利率將繼續下降。

Second one, I guess, sticking with the guidance, I think your end market growth kind of blends to maybe very low single digits and you're speaking to base business growth of, I think, 7% this year, and I know there's a couple of extra selling days in the second half. But my question is on your growth compared to the market. Sounds like you should start to get some of the digital sales to kick in later this year. But just -- could you kind of bridge us from where the market is expected this year to your -- sort of several hundred basis points of market outgrowth? And obviously, of course, how does the value-add growth kind of play into that?

第二個，我想，堅持指導，我認為你的終端市場成長可能會達到非常低的個位數，你所說的是今年的基本業務成長，我認為是 7%，我知道有一個下半年有幾個額外的銷售天。但我的問題是你與市場相比的成長。聽起來你應該在今年晚些時候開始進行一些數位銷售。但是，您能否將今年的市場預期與您的市場成長數百個基點連結起來？當然，顯然增值成長對此有何影響？

Thanks, Matt. You're right. We are anticipating a fairly modest market tailwind this year, which obviously is appreciated, and we'll put to good use. But we are challenging ourselves as an organization in a couple of key areas. A big one that we talked a lot about is digital. We're really excited about what this product is going to do for us in terms of attracting and enhancing our relationships with customers, we think there's real value there. So we're putting that in our number.

謝謝，馬特。你說得對。我們預計今年的市場順風將相當溫和，這顯然是值得讚賞的，我們將充分利用這一點。但作為一個組織，我們正在幾個關鍵領域挑戰自己。我們經常談論的一大問題是數位化。我們對這款產品在吸引和增強我們與客戶的關係方面為我們所做的事情感到非常興奮，我們認為它具有真正的價值。所以我們把它放在我們的號碼中。

We also are continuing to invest as you see in value add. So we've got new capacity in the ground. We've got new equipment. We've got a new ability this year that we didn't have last year to provide those types of high-value impactful products to our customers. So we expect growth from that. And we're certainly confident in our team. We've got -- we need to be the best team in the industry, and we think we can win in the market. So those 3 things really kind of combined to give us the confidence to put out a number there that really represents share growth ultimately.

正如您所看到的那樣，我們還將繼續投資增值。所以我們已經有了新的產能。我們有新設備了。今年我們獲得了去年沒有的新能力，可以為客戶提供此類高價值、有影響力的產品。所以我們預計會從中成長。我們對我們的團隊當然充滿信心。我們需要成為行業中最好的團隊，並且我們認為我們能夠贏得市場。因此，這三件事確實結合在一起，讓我們有信心最終給出一個真正代表份額成長的數字。

I would just add, Matt, that conversations with customers are almost uniformly optimistic for the year. There are differences in when they believe that timing of that rebound will start, and that's all obviously driven by the macro environment to a degree. And the digital -- the digital add that we'll experience during the year will be more like a hockey stick. It will be weighted to the back half of the year as we continue to drive adoption and training throughout the organization and with our customers. But we're excited about the year as a whole. It's a little more difficult to pinpoint the exact point in time when we start seeing it in real time. But the long-term demand still is very, very encouraging.

馬特，我想補充一點，與客戶的對話對今年幾乎一致持樂觀態度。他們認為反彈何時開始的時間存在差異，這在一定程度上顯然是由宏觀環境所驅動的。而數位化——我們今年將體驗到的數位化附加物將更像曲棍球棒。隨著我們繼續推動整個組織和客戶的採用和培訓，它將重點放在今年下半年。但我們對整個一年感到興奮。當我們開始即時看到它時，要確定確切的時間點就有點困難了。但長期需求仍非常非常令人鼓舞。

We'll turn now to Mike Dahl with RBC Capital.

現在我們請來加拿大皇家銀行資本公司的 Mike Dahl。

Just a question on free cash flow. I appreciate your articulation of kind of some of those timing differences and the swings in working cap. And so I think as we move beyond 2024 because this represents kind of a lower-than-normal conversion rate for you. So can you just talk to -- is it kind of timing through the year that -- of how working cap has the ramp -- has growth ramps? And then once we get to '25, you still expect to get back to a higher, more normal conversion rate or any other moving pieces there? I think, would be helpful.

只是一個關於自由現金流的問題。我很欣賞你對其中一些時間差異和工作上限波動的闡述。所以我認為，當我們跨過 2024 年時，因為這對您來說意味著轉換率低於正常水平。那麼，您能否談談——今年的時間安排——工作上限是如何增長的——增長是如何增長的？然後，一旦我們進入 25 年，您仍然希望恢復到更高、更正常的轉換率或任何其他移動部分嗎？我想，會有幫助的。

Absolutely. So you're right, Mike. This is a light year for us. The way that the numbers show, the comp looked obviously pretty dramatic on a year-over-year basis. We're down a little bit on the EBITDA number due to that multifamily step down. But the change going from a business that's shrinking. And as you know, we spent off a tremendous amount of cash as the business shrinks to turn to an increasing sales environment. And we use working capital when we grow, that sort of turn for us showed large in the numbers. But that headwind that we would expect to see related to growth is generally going to be a little bit smaller in a normal growth year than in a turn year. The turn year is always a big number when it goes from one to the other. So we do anticipate it to be a little bit higher in a normal year. And as we laid out in our Investor Day, there's a cumulative benefit that we expect to deliver on, and that commitment hasn't changed.

絕對地。所以你是對的，麥克。這對我們來說是光年。從數據顯示的情況來看，與去年同期相比，這一對比顯然非常引人注目。由於多戶家庭的減少，我們的 EBITDA 數字略有下降。但這種改變來自於不斷萎縮的業務。如您所知，隨著業務萎縮，我們花費了大量現金轉向不斷增長的銷售環境。當我們成長時，我們會使用營運資金，這種轉變對我們來說表現得很大。但我們預計在正常成長年中看到的與成長相關的阻力通常會比轉年小。當從一個年份轉到另一個年份時，轉年總是一個很大的數字。因此，我們確實預期正常年份的價格會稍微高一些。正如我們在投資者日所闡述的那樣，我們期望實現累積效益，而這項承諾並沒有改變。

We'll turn now to Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

現在我們請德意志銀行的喬‧阿勒斯邁爾 (Joe Ahlersmeyer) 發言。

Congrats on the results. So is it right to think that if we've got the headwind from weather in 1Q, we're going to be probably pushing those sales more into 2Q. I'm just trying to think about the phasing of sales for the remainder of the year.

祝賀結果。因此，如果我們在第一季受到天氣的不利影響，我們可能會將這些銷售更多地推到第二季度，這樣的想法是否正確？我只是想考慮今年剩餘時間的銷售階段。

I think that's a fair assessment, Joe. Typically, what we see is it's not an immediate snapback but a gradual snapback in the future quarters as they catch up. They don't catch up all at once. But at the end of the day, we actually do feel like what we lost in the first quarter due to weather will ultimately pick up in the back 3 quarters of the year.

我認為這是一個公平的評估，喬。通常情況下，我們看到的不是立即回升，而是在未來幾季趕上時逐漸回升。他們不會一下子趕上。但歸根結底，我們確實覺得第一季因天氣原因造成的損失最終將在今年後三個季度有所回升。

And then looking at your guidance for the all-in business and the base business, is it right to think about the commodity element of this as a full normalization of the multifamily? Are we getting sort of all of both the commodity normalization and market normalization in these '24 numbers? And then maybe if you could just talk about going forward, the opportunity within multifamily kind of between the 5 and below units versus the much larger projects?

然後看看您對綜合業務和基礎業務的指導，將其商品元素視為多戶型住宅的完全正常化是否正確？我們是否在這 24 個數字中得到了商品正常化和市場正常化的全部內容？然後，也許您可以談談未來的發展，5 個及以下單元之間的多戶住宅與更大的項目之間的機會？

That's right, Joe. These business reconciliation of those 2 components you mentioned is the last of the multifamily and the last of a little bit of the core, not much left, which is nice, but that's certainly a piece of it.

沒錯，喬。您提到的這兩個組件的業務協調是多系列的最後一個，也是核心的最後一個，所剩無幾，這很好，但這肯定是其中的一部分。

And I would tell you, you're exactly right. Our sales teams that have focused on the larger projects partly because their customers are also looking for opportunities in the smaller projects that still qualified technically as multifamily or light commercial. We're all focused on those opportunities and those will help us bridge that headwind a little easier for the rest of the year. But it still takes a little bit of time for those projects to get out of the ground. And the timing of that makes it a little difficult, but [we'll definitely] only focused on that opportunity.

我會告訴你，你是完全正確的。我們的銷售團隊專注於大型項目，部分原因是他們的客戶也在小型項目中尋找機會，這些項目在技術上仍符合多戶型或輕型商業的資格。我們都專注於這些機會，這些機會將幫助我們在今年剩餘時間更輕鬆地應對逆風。但這些項目還需要一點時間才能落地。這個時機有點困難，但[我們肯定會]只關注這個機會。

We'll turn now to Trey Grooms with Stephens.

現在我們將轉向特雷·格魯姆斯和史蒂芬斯。

Peter, you mentioned that there's -- you're seeing some evidence of residential starting to turn around. And I think you noted seeing high single-digit growth in lumber and low single-digit growth in truss. I guess what's the timing you're referring to there? Is that since January? just some color on the time frame there?

彼得，你提到，你看到了一些住宅區開始好轉的證據。我認為您注意到木材的高個位數增長和桁架的低個位數增長。我猜你說的時間是什麼時候？是從一月開始的嗎？只是時間範圍上的一些顏色嗎？

And then secondly, is there any reason why truss would be trending slower than lumber? I mean I didn't know if there would be anything going there from a mix standpoint or something? I would just assume value add would at least stay in pace with lumber or maybe outpace, just any color there.

其次，是否有任何原因導致桁架的發展速度比木材慢？我的意思是我不知道從混音的角度來看是否會有什麼東西發生？我只是假設增值至少會與木材保持同步，或者可能超過任何顏色。

Yes. No -- thanks for the question, Trey. So the time frame we're talking about was 4Q. So it was a fourth quarter dynamic. I think the storyline here, and we talked about it a bit in the past, but for those maybe who haven't heard it, what we sell goes into a start at a wide range of time lines, right? So lumber is generally very, very early. It's not unusual to frame the first floor and then have maybe the trusses delivered. There is a very close correlation between framing and truss. No argument there. I think that in general, it's indicative of the beginning of the turn. What's also true is some of the later products, you go through windows and you got out to doors and trim, that's later in the build process. And those are the products that you notice we didn't talk about as being turned and (inaudible) position.

是的。不——謝謝你的提問，特雷。所以我們討論的時間範圍是第四季。這是第四季的動態。我認為這裡的故事情節，我們過去討論過它，但對於那些可能沒有聽說過的人來說，我們銷售的東西會在一個廣泛的時間線開始，對吧？所以木材通常是非常非常早的。框架一樓然後交付桁架的情況並不罕見。框架和桁架之間有非常密切的相關性。沒有爭論。我認為總的來說，這表明了轉向的開始。一些後來的產品也是如此，你穿過窗戶，走到門上並進行裝飾，這是在建造過程的後期。您會注意到，這些產品我們沒有談論旋轉和（聽不清楚）位置。

It's very reflectable last year. At the end of '22, you saw lumber and truss go down really hard. Lumber down a lot more than truss. So on a comparison basis, that's part of the answer as well that lumber was down aggressively if you go back to the numbers for the fourth quarter of last year. So on a comp basis, it's up a little bit more, but really because it was down a little bit.

去年的情況非常值得反思。 22 年底，您看到木材和桁架的下降非常嚴重。木材比桁架多得多。因此，在比較的基礎上，如果你回顧去年第四季的數據，這也是答案的一部分，木材價格大幅下降。因此，在比較基礎上，它上漲了一點，但實際上是因為它下降了一點。

I mean, lumber and truss go hand-in-hand together, but value-added is more than truss. I think that's the thing you have to keep in mind. So value-added is later in the process.

我的意思是，木材和桁架齊頭並進，但附加價值比桁架更高。我認為這是你必須牢記的事情。所以增值是在這個過程的後期。

We'll turn now to Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

現在我們請美國銀行的拉夫‧亞德羅西奇 (Rafe Jadrosich) 發言。

Last quarter, you provided a scenario framework for 2024 on different macro assumptions and then what that would mean for your earnings? Are you -- should we still sort of be comfortable with that. So it starts to track in that 8% to 14% range on the single-family side and lumber is at [4.25% to 4.75%]. Would you still be looking for $2.7 billion to $3.1 billion in EBITDA? Or has something else changed in the market where we should be thinking about upside or downside to those scenarios?

上個季度，您根據不同的宏觀假設提供了 2024 年的情境框架，這對您的收益意味著什麼？你是——我們仍然應該對此感到滿意嗎？因此，單戶住宅的比例開始在 8% 到 14% 的範圍內，而木材則在 [4.25% 到 4.75%]。您是否還在尋找 27 億至 31 億美元的 EBITDA？或者市場上是否發生了其他變化，我們應該考慮這些情況的上行或下行？

I think it's fair to say that directionally, those scenarios are still indicative of how we think of the business. There haven't been any real structural changes in any of the variables. It's always subjective up to a degree because the ending point for 2023 was a bit different. But generally, yes. No, I think that's a fair way to look at it.

我認為可以公平地說，從方向上講，這些場景仍然表明了我們對業務的看法。任何變數都沒有發生任何真正的結構性變化。這在某種程度上總是主觀的，因為 2023 年的終點有點不同。但一般來說，是的。不，我認為這是一種公平的看法。

That's really helpful. And then just as you look at the gross margin guidance for this year, is it 30% to 33%. And it's really in line with your long-term target despite single-family starts that are tracking below. I think the long-term assumption is $1.1 million. As we look forward here, if you have years where the starts are below that target, do you think you'll be able to do gross margin kind of above 30%? Or is there something unique to '24 that's keeping it higher? Is that just because you still have some multifamily that's flowing through?

這真的很有幫助。然後就像你看今年的毛利率指引一樣，是30%到33%嗎？儘管單戶住宅開工率低於預期，但它確實符合您的長期目標。我認為長期假設是 110 萬美元。正如我們在此展望的那樣，如果您有幾年的開工率低於該目標，您認為您的毛利率能夠達到 30% 以上嗎？還是 '24 有什麼獨特之處可以讓它保持更高的水平？這僅僅是因為您還有一些多戶住宅正在流經嗎？

It's a really good question. I think confidence -- our confidence this year comes from that normalization component. We still have some above what we consider to be normal margins in multifamily and in a couple of product categories in a few pockets around the country. We're continuing to see that normalization. We're continuing to see some of that compete back to what we consider to be a likely normal. That said, we're obviously very good. It's very strong, and we're feeling very confident about our ability to manage it in the long term.

這是一個非常好的問題。我認為信心——我們今年的信心來自正常化部分。在全國一些地區的多戶住宅和一些產品類別中，我們的利潤率仍然高於我們認為的正常水平。我們將繼續看到這種正常化。我們繼續看到其中一些競爭回到了我們認為可能正常的水平。也就是說，我們顯然非常好。它非常強大，我們對長期管理它的能力非常有信心。

At this stage, I think it's hard to say that it's an exact point of starts that correlates to an exact point in gross margins. I think we're most comfortable talking about it in sort of ranges around normal. It feels like a range around margins. But right now, a lot of confidence that we can hold in that normal range based on everything we're seeing.

在現階段，我認為很難說這是一個與毛利率的確切點相關的確切起始點。我認為我們在正常範圍內談論它是最舒服的。感覺就像是圍繞邊距的範圍。但現在，根據我們所看到的一切，我們對可以保持在正常範圍內充滿信心。

And what I would add is our belief in the resilience of that range and the fact that we can hold within that range is our belief in our value-added product portfolio and solutions. Those are the products that are more valuable to our customers and as a result, more -- have a better margin opportunity for us. And as we continue to grow that as a percentage of our overall sales is always going to help that gross margin number be more resilient.

我要補充的是，我們相信該範圍的彈性，而事實上，我們能夠保持在該範圍內，是因為我們相信我們的增值產品組合和解決方案。這些產品對我們的客戶來說更有價值，因此為我們帶來更好的利潤機會。隨著我們不斷成長，它占我們整體銷售額的百分比總是會幫助毛利率數字更具彈性。

We will now turn to Keith Hughes with Truist.

現在我們將轉向 Truist 的 Keith Hughes。

I don't think your projection here is aligned with what's thought in the market, just specific to Builders FirstSource, when do you think this is going to really start impacting your business? And if you talk about the unit loss versus margin loss that's been such a positive for '23, that would be helpful.

我認為您的預測與市場的想法不一致，只是針對 Builders FirstSource，您認為這什麼時候會真正開始影響您的業務？如果你談論單位損失與利潤損失，這對 23 年來說是積極的，那會很有幫助。

I mean, timing is a tough thing to predict, as you know, Keith. I think based on what we're seeing and hearing, the market is healthy. We've certainly seen some positive signs early in the year. It would be nice if the Fed helped, can't lie based on everything that's kind of out there in the public markets, it feels like a second half dynamic. When we call out the numbers around core organic, there's certainly a big component of it. It's primarily price volume mix driven, like we give you the days, we give you the commodities in the price/volume mix space that normalization -- talking about in margins is certainly an important part, a driver in terms of the normalization of gross margins, it's less of an impact on sales.

我的意思是，正如你所知，基思，時機是很難預測的。我認為根據我們所看到和聽到的情況，市場是健康的。我們在今年年初確實看到了一些積極的跡象。如果聯準會能夠提供幫助，那就太好了，不能根據公開市場上的一切情況撒謊，感覺就像是下半年的動態。當我們列出核心有機的數字時，其中肯定有一個很大的組成部分。這主要是價格數量組合驅動的，就像我們給你時間一樣，我們給你價格/數量組合空間中的商品，正常化——談論利潤率肯定是一個重要的部分，是毛利率正常化的一個驅動因素，對銷量影響較小。

So the driver this year really has to be unit volumes turning and starting to accelerate again. And -- that's our expectation, and that's what we're starting to see. So there's certainly a lot of optimism, I would say, at this point, it really becomes a question of timing.

因此，今年的驅動因素確實是單位銷售的轉變並開始再次加速。這是我們的期望，也是我們開始看到的。因此，我想說，目前確實存在著許多樂觀情緒，這確實成為一個時機問題。

We'll turn now to Collin Verron with Jefferies.

現在我們請科林·維隆和傑弗里斯發言。

I just want to dive into the multifamily, a little bit more in your assumption around that 20% to 30% decline in multifamily starts. I guess, any help in thinking about your sales performance versus that start to decline for the full year, just given the backlog of projects that's still under construction according to the Census Bureau data, and maybe the lag that you would normally see from a start to your sales?

我只想深入了解多戶型住宅，多一點假設，多戶型住宅開工率會下降 20% 到 30%。我想，根據人口普查局的數據，考慮到仍在建設中的項目積壓，以及您通常從一開始就會看到的滯後，任何有助於思考全年銷售業績與開始下降的業績的幫助對你的銷售？

And then I guess, second on that, can you just help us think about the cadence of the multifamily starts maybe on a quarterly basis throughout the year to kind of get to that sales performance?

然後我想，其次，您能否幫助我們考慮一下多戶住宅的開工節奏，可能是全年按季度開工，以達到銷售業績？

Yes, I mean -- I would say, if you're thinking about our multifamily business, you do have to go back in the rearview mirror a bit, right, in the turn around what we build, and this is the problem in terms of everybody being able to use the sort of publicly available information. It's a little bit more specific both to markets and what we're building. However, I think what we're seeing right now is that the expected downturn throughout 2024, kind of thought it might hit late in 2023, didn't. I think people were pretty aggressive at trying to get the multifamily projects completed. So we actually saw a nice pull-through a little better than we thought of that business in the fourth quarter, but definitely seeing it turn down starting in Q1 in every quarter during the year, you'll see for the multifamily business. Meaningful declines in both sales and margins as the year progresses. Still a really good business. It's just not sort of performing at those 2 standard deviations above normal levels anymore.

是的，我的意思是 - 我想說，如果你正在考慮我們的多戶型業務，你確實必須回顧一下後視鏡，對吧，在我們建造的東西的轉變過程中，這就是問題所在每個人都能夠使用此類公開資訊。它對於市場和我們正在建立的產品來說都更加具體。然而，我認為我們現在看到的情況是，預期的 2024 年經濟低迷可能會在 2023 年底出現，但事實並非如此。我認為人們非常積極地試圖完成多戶住宅計畫。因此，我們實際上看到了第四季度該業務的良好復甦，比我們想像的要好一些，但肯定會看到它從第一季度開始在一年中的每個季度都在下降，你會看到多戶型業務。隨著時間的推移，銷售額和利潤率均大幅下降。仍然是一個非常好的生意。它的表現不再比正常水準高出 2 個標準差。

I would just add, remember, it's only 13% of our overall business. The other thing I would add is we were at the Harvard Housing Conference, and there were multifamily players there. And it's a cost of capital challenge in addition to all of the multifamily that had been constructed over the last 12 to 18 months is coming to market all at the same time.

我想補充一點，請記住，這只占我們整體業務的 13%。我要補充的另一件事是我們參加了哈佛住房會議，那裡有多戶家庭參與者。此外，過去 12 至 18 個月建造的所有多戶住宅將同時上市，這也是資本成本的挑戰。

So there's a little bit of a digestion of that in addition to solving the capital cost equation. But again, just like in single-family, the long-term outlook for multifamily is very positive when you look at the demand curve and what people need housing and what multifamily satisfies for that population. So long term, we're still very positive on the business. And we do know we'll have to manage some of the cost -- the capital challenges that are there today. But again, 13% of our business.

因此，除了求解資本成本方程式之外，還需要對此進行一些消化。但同樣，就像單戶住宅一樣，當你觀察需求曲線以及人們需要什麼住房以及多戶住宅滿足該人群的需求時，多戶住宅的長期前景非常樂觀。從長遠來看，我們對這項業務仍然非常樂觀。我們確實知道我們必須管理一些成本——當今存在的資本挑戰。但同樣，我們業務的 13%。

And then I just wanted to touch on productivity, which continues to be a pretty meaningful tailwind for you guys. Can you just talk about the projects you're looking to benefit from in 2024 and maybe the size of the project pipeline beyond 2024?

然後我只想談談生產力，這對你們來說仍然是一個非常有意義的推動力。您能否談談您希望在 2024 年受益的專案以及 2024 年之後專案管道的規模？

Yes. The productivity initiatives are in 2 kind of camps. One is how can we improve our productivity through automation and technology and then how can we do it through best practices. The benefit of our scale, our 570-plus locations, is the ability to take a best practice across the enterprise and get little chunks of productivity in every single location.

是的。生產力舉措分為兩個陣營。一是我們如何透過自動化和技術提高生產力，然後如何透過最佳實踐來做到這一點。我們擁有 570 多個分支機構，規模龐大，其優勢在於能夠在整個企業內採用最佳實踐，並在每個分支機構中提高生產力。

So it falls in those 2 camps. A lot of the automation and technology is around improving customer service, improving truck turnaround times also in the manufacturing environment using automation to get more throughput per labor hour. But that would outline the things we're working on for 2020.

所以它屬於這兩個陣營。許多自動化和技術都是圍繞著改善客戶服務、改善卡車週轉時間以及在製造環境中使用自動化來提高每工時的吞吐量。但這將概述我們 2020 年要做的事情。

We'll go next to Adam Baumgarten with Zelman.

我們將和澤爾曼一起去亞當·鮑姆加滕旁邊。

If we look at the market for manufactured products like truss, are you seeing your competitors ramp up capacity as well?

如果我們觀察桁架等製成品的市場，您是否看到您的競爭對手也在提高產能？

Sure, a little. But I mean scale-wise, we're 5x, 10x, 20x their size. So if they're adding 1 or 2 plants in certain markets, we know how to deal with it.

當然，有一點。但我的意思是從規模來看，我們的規模是他們的 5 倍、10 倍、20 倍。因此，如果他們在某些市場增加 1 或 2 家工廠，我們知道如何應對。

I would tell you the other differentiation we have is not just adding locations, it's actually improving the throughput of the locations we already own. We've invested over $100 million in existing plants. Over 65% of our tables have some level of automation. Every plant has some level of automation. So there's a lot of different ways we can extend our lead without building physical plant to do so, and we're focused on that as well.

我想告訴您，我們的另一個差異化不僅僅是增加地點，它實際上提高了我們已有地點的吞吐量。我們已在現有工廠投資超過 1 億美元。我們超過 65% 的桌子都具有一定程度的自動化。每個工廠都有一定程度的自動化。因此，我們可以透過許多不同的方式來擴大我們的領先優勢，而無需建造實體工廠來實現這一目標，我們也專注於此。

And then just thinking about the M&A environment, are you seeing more willingness by acquisition targets to sell at this point given the improved outlook?

然後考慮併購環境，鑑於前景改善，您是否認為收購目標此時更願意出售？

Yes, it's gotten a little better. I think one of the things that was holding back the M&A environment was just uncertainty around the direction of the market and people not knowing where the bottom was and not having sort of kind of a valuation to step off of. And that created disagreements between buyers and sellers. I think that's calmed down a bit. So we're a little bit more optimistic for this year, but deals are unique. Each one is a unicorn. I would say the one thing that's also improved the farther away we've gotten to the unusual commodity impact on numbers. People are now more easily or readily accepting of a base business kind of valuation for the -- for what they have going forward, and that makes the conversations easier.

是的，情況已經好一點了。我認為阻礙併購環境的因素之一就是市場方向的不確定性，人們不知道底部在哪裡，也沒有某種估值可以退出。這造成了買家和賣家之間的分歧。我想這已經平靜了一些。因此，我們對今年更加樂觀，但交易是獨一無二的。每一個都是獨角獸。我想說的一件事是，隨著商品對數字的不同尋常的影響，我們已經得到了進一步的改善。現在人們更容易或更願意接受對他們未來發展的基本業務評估，這使得對話變得更容易。

We'll go now to Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

現在我們將與 BMO 資本市場一起前往 Ketan Mamtora。

I was curious if you can talk a little bit about sort of what you're seeing in Q1. I mean you talked about weather being a challenge. But sales -- you're pointing to kind of flat to down, but EBITDA is down quite a bit more. Peter, is there any way to sort of think about how much of it is weather-driven versus margin normalization?

我很好奇你是否能談談你在第一季看到的情況。我的意思是你談到天氣是一個挑戰。但銷售額——你指的是持平甚至下降，但 EBITDA 下降幅度更大。彼得，有什麼辦法可以考慮其中有多少是天氣驅動的，還是利潤正常化的？

Yes. The weather is modest. I think it's 2 to 3 days in terms of what we are anticipating in terms of a headwind. So that's not a huge deal. In general with the exception of that component, you've got pretty healthy business, both on a year-over-year basis and on a trending basis. So I think that's a positive. What you are seeing, though, and I think it's fair to point it out is the year-over-year lapping of what we've been talking about.

是的。天氣溫和。我認為就我們預期的逆風而言，這需要 2 到 3 天的時間。所以這沒什麼大不了的。總的來說，除了該部分之外，無論是同比還是趨勢，您的業務都相當健康。所以我認為這是積極的。不過，你所看到的，我認為可以公平地指出，這是我們一直在談論的逐年研磨。

I think you've heard me, Ketan, talk about that normalization of margins. And I've been pretty adamant that behind the scenes, regardless of this multifamily [obscuring] it, we have seen business getting back to normal in terms of the supply chain normalizing and are negotiating in the competitive environment, things just settling back down to a more normal level. And you're seeing a little bit of that in terms of the year-over-year. Again, still a very good number, still a very strong performance for the business, but more in line with what we would expect going forward.

Ketan，我想你已經聽過我談論利潤率的正常化。我一直非常堅定地認為，在幕後，不管這個多戶家庭[掩蓋]它，我們已經看到業務在供應鏈正常化方面恢復正常，並且正在競爭環境中進行談判，事情只是穩定下來比較正常的水平。與去年同期相比，你會看到一些這樣的情況。同樣，這仍然是一個非常好的數字，仍然是非常強勁的業務表現，但更符合我們對未來的預期。

I would just add from a customer sentiment perspective, the national builder customers are seeing increased foot traffic. And more importantly, the foot traffic that they are seeing are more apt to actually buy a home. So the percentage of closings to people looking, I feel like is gaining traction and their ability to match up available inventory and monthly mortgage payment to demand is -- they've done a great job with that.

我想從客戶情緒的角度補充一下，全國建築商客戶的人流正在增加。更重要的是，他們看到的人流更有可能真正買房。因此，我覺得人們關注的成交比例正在獲得關注，他們將可用庫存和每月抵押​​貸款支付與需求相匹配的能力是——他們在這方面做得很好。

Now where we need a little help from the Fed mortgage rates would be to get the nonnational builder customer into an arena where the cost of the mortgage is helping to drive that demand to them. So that less so, but we expect that to be what is the first off the sidelines when we get that movement, but the national builders have done a good job in the existing environment.

現在，我們需要聯準會抵押貸款利率的一點幫助，那就是讓非本國建築商客戶進入一個抵押貸款成本有助於推動他們需求的舞台。因此，情況不太如此，但我們預計，當我們採取這項行動時，這將是第一個在場外的事情，但國家建設者在現有環境中做得很好。

(Operator Instructions) We'll move next to Dave Manthey with Baird.

（操作員指示）我們將與貝爾德一起移至戴夫·曼蒂 (Dave Manthey) 旁邊。

I'm thinking broadly on a product basis. Is the margin differential between commodity and value-added product different than it was 5 to 7 years ago? I assume both categories have moved up. But as we normalize out here and go forward the next 3 to 5, can you just discuss the delta between those 2?

我在產品的基礎上進行廣泛的思考。大宗商品和加值產品之間的利潤差異與 5 至 7 年前相比是否有所不同？我認為這兩個類別都已經上升。但是當我們在這裡進行標準化並繼續接下來的 3 到 5 個時，您能討論一下這 2 個之間的增量嗎？

Yes, that's fair to say. You're right. We've seen improvements across the Board in terms of margins. Some of that very simply to cover the inflation and the incremental cost, but we have certainly seen an increase and I would also point to our productivity as a driver for why value add has extended its differentiation from commodity. Those -- Dave referred to $100-plus million worth of investment and the efforts we've put around our team to improve our internal board per foot per man hour, our doors per man hour type of productivity metrics has contributed to a bigger differential between value add on average and commodity.

是的，可以這麼說。你說得對。我們看到利潤率全面改善。其中一些只是為了彌補通膨和增量成本，但我們確實看到了成長，我還要指出我們的生產力是增值擴大其與商品的差異的驅動因素。這些——戴夫提到了價值1 億多美元的投資，以及我們為團隊所做的努力，以改善每英尺每工時的內部板，我們每工時門類型的生產力指標，導致了之間的更大差異平均附加價值和商品附加價值。

We'll go next to Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

接下來我們將與韋德布希一起前往傑伊·麥坎利斯。

So my question is on the outlook for R&R. I think, up low single digits probably a little bit better, I'd say, than what some of the other national forecasters are expecting. Is that acquisitions driving that? Or do you feel like in those specific markets, you can actually see growth above what people are expecting?

所以我的問題是關於 R&R 的前景。我認為，低個位數的成長可能比其他一些國家預測者的預期要好一些。是收購推動了這一點嗎？或者您覺得在這些特定市場中，您實際上可以看到超出人們預期的成長？

Jay, thanks for the question. For us, R&R kind of falls into 2 camps. There's R&R DIY and Retail. And then there's kind of pro-remodel R&R. And I think with us, too, it's market specific. We don't do it everywhere. So that's why there's a little difference in what we believe is going to happen for us, possibly versus some of the national guys and a lot of what I think is a headwind for them are big ticket items that we have never sold and don't sell like appliances, et cetera.

傑伊，謝謝你的提問。對我們來說，R&R 分為兩個陣營。有 R&R DIY 和零售。然後還有一種支持改造的 R&R。我認為對我們來說，這也是針對特定市場的。我們並不是在所有地方都這樣做。因此，這就是為什麼我們認為我們會發生的事情有一點不同，可能與一些國家隊的人相比，而且我認為對他們來說有很多不利因素是我們從未出售過、也不出售的大件商品。像電器等銷售。

So the fact that we have kind of a different product offering to that group a different kind of customer focus and in different parts of the country is why we -- why I believe we might have a little different expectation.

因此，事實上，我們為該群體提供了不同的產品，並在全國不同地區提供了不同的客戶關注點，這就是為什麼我們 - 為什麼我相信我們可能會有一些不同的期望。

Also, I think, taken advantage of capacity availability to lean into it as well, and that's a different component than others might have.

另外，我認為，也利用了可用的容量來傾斜它，這是與其他人可能擁有的不同的組成部分。

We're such a small player in that overall market segment, it's a little easier for us to kind of grow that if we just focus on it a little bit. And we have the ability to do that in this current environment.

我們在整個細分市場中是一個很小的參與者，如果我們稍微專註一點，我們就更容易成長一點。在當前的環境下，我們有能力做到這一點。

And just one other quick question. I think the $200 million you called out, Dave, in terms of incremental digital sales this year. Maybe talk a little bit more about that, what that's going to look like and why you all feel like -- I think this is new guidance for you guys, just kind of why you wanted to talk about that now and what those incremental sales would look like, please?

還有一個簡單的問題。戴夫，我認為今年數位銷售額的增量是 2 億美元。也許多談談這個問題，它會是什麼樣子，以及為什麼你們都會有這樣的感覺——我認為這對你們來說是新的指導，這就是為什麼你們現在想談論這個問題以及這些增量銷售會帶來什麼。請問看起來像嗎？

Perfect. Thank you for teeing that up for me, Jay. Next week, at IBS, we're doing a full product launch. Then we'll be rolling our digital tools out market by market. There's a lot of preparation in training our sales team to then know how to intelligently explain it to our customers and show the benefits to our customers. And that just takes time. And we're doing it market by market. We're making sure we do it right the first time. And as we get momentum, it will -- you'll see the efforts paying off in the later part of the year. And that's why I said more like a hockey stick probably in 2024. But we're really excited about it, and it all starts next week with the IBS product launch.

完美的。謝謝你為我準備好了，傑伊。下週，在 IBS，我們將推出完整的產品。然後我們將逐個市場推出我們的數位工具。我們在培訓我們的銷售團隊方面做了很多準備，然後知道如何明智地向我們的客戶解釋並向我們的客戶展示其好處。這只是需要時間。我們正在逐一市場地進行。我們確保第一次就做對。當我們獲得動力時，你會看到我們的努力在今年下半年得到回報。這就是為什麼我說可能會在 2024 年更像曲棍球棒。但我們對此感到非常興奮，這一切都將從下週 IBS 產品的發布開始。

We'll go next to Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson.

我們將和 D.A. 一起去庫爾特英格 (Kurt Yiner) 旁邊。戴維森。

I just wanted to stick with the digital tools and the rollout there. I was hoping you could talk about -- maybe the cost impact in 2024 and recognizing that the sales are back half weighted, and it's kind of the first year that you're fully rolling these. How should we think about kind of the incremental margins attached to those sales?

我只是想堅持使用數位工具並在那裡推廣。我希望你能談談——也許是 2024 年的成本影響，並認識到銷售額已回升一半，而這是你全面滾動這些的第一年。我們應該如何考慮這些銷售帶來的增量利潤？

Yes. Kurt, thanks for the question. So the short answer is we expect the sales pull-through to be pretty consistent with what we're already selling. The costs associated with the digital tools and the development, the rollout and even largely the support is included in the numbers. It's really been spent over the past few years. So there's no -- there's no other material that you're going to see in terms of deltas.

是的。庫爾特，謝謝你的提問。因此，簡短的回答是，我們預期銷售量將與我們已經銷售的產品非常一致。與數位工具以及開發、推出甚至大部分支援相關的成本都包含在數字中。這幾年真的是花光了。因此，您不會看到任何其他關於增量的資料。

The thing we're going to keep a close eye on is what is the support infrastructure necessary to make sure we have the right level of customer experience. We think we have an eye on it, but that's probably the only one that could potentially increase if this really picks up quickly. Again, I don't think it will be big enough to really hit the radar for anybody, even if that were to happen, just based on the service model that we've built out. It's really all about that incremental sales being pulled through from incremental share of wallet and new customers that really like being able to utilize these modern digital tools.

我們要密切關注的是確保我們擁有適當水準的客戶體驗所需的支援基礎設施。我們認為我們正在關注這個問題，但如果這種情況真的迅速好轉，這可能是唯一可能增加的問題。再說一次，我認為它不會大到足以真正引起任何人的關注，即使這種情況發生，僅基於我們建立的服務模型。這實際上是透過增加錢包份額和真正喜歡利用這些現代數位工具的新客戶來實現增量銷售的。

We'll move now to Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group.

現在我們將轉向湯普森研究小組的史蒂文拉姆齊。

Wanted to hold in on the installation sales, which at the Investor Day, you estimated at 15% of 2023 sales. I guess, first, is that about where it landed last year? and then thinking for 2024, is there an expectation that installation sales can grow on an absolute basis and where that lands as a percent of the total base business?

希望保持安裝銷售，在投資者日，您估計安裝銷售佔 2023 年銷售額的 15%。我想，首先，這是去年的情況嗎？然後考慮到 2024 年，安裝銷售是否可以實現絕對成長，以及佔基礎業務總量的百分比是多少？

Thanks for the question. Installation is definitely a focus point for our strategy for 2024 as it fits very nicely into solving our customers' pain points. We do it successfully in a lot of markets today. We did $2.5 billion of material labor sales in related installation last year. So our focus is to grow both organically and inorganically. The low-hanging fruit is the markets that we are already doing some level of installation expanding the products that we install in those markets. But we're also looking at new markets that have not done installation in the past. To do that effectively, we put our best people together and we developed an installation playbook that people can access and utilize to grow that business in their markets.

謝謝你的提問。安裝絕對是我們 2024 年策略的重點，因為它非常適合解決客戶的痛點。如今，我們在許多市場都取得了成功。去年我們在相關安裝方面完成了 25 億美元的材料勞務銷售。因此，我們的重點是有機和無機成長。唾手可得的成果是我們已經在進行一定程度的安裝的市場，擴展了我們在這些市場安裝的產品。但我們也在尋找過去尚未完成安裝的新市場。為了有效地做到這一點，我們將最優秀的人才聚集在一起，並開發了一份安裝手冊，人們可以存取和利用該手冊來在其市場中發展業務。

And we're always looking for people who are already doing it well today that could fit into our profile through M&A. So we're going to pull all of those levers during the year, but it will be starting in Q2 and then going from there for the most part. And it will be focused on the things we're already good at today.

我們一直在尋找那些今天已經做得很好、可以透過併購融入我們的人才。因此，我們將在今年拉動所有這些槓桿，但將從第二季開始，然後大部分時間從那裡開始。它將專注於我們今天已經擅長的事情。

We'll go next to Jeffrey Stevenson with Loop Capital.

接下來我們將討論 Loop Capital 的 Jeffrey Stevenson。

Are you expecting any price deflation this year in categories such as EWP and Millwork, which benefited from supply-driven pricing gains the last several years?

您預計 EWP 和 Millwork 等品類今年會出現價格通貨緊縮嗎？這些品類受益於過去幾年供應驅動的定價上漲？

Well, we already saw that in the last part of the year for EWP. I don't know that we'd see too much more of that going forward. And I would call it more supply chain normalization than I would -- significant deflation. I think they're still challenged with a lot of inflationary operating costs that we all are. So I don't expect that they're going to be able to significantly reduce price. I think it's more holding than where it is right now that we're expecting and hoping for. But quite frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if inflation causes even price increases going into the year.

嗯，我們在今年下半年的 EWP 中已經看到了這一點。我不知道未來我們會看到更多這樣的事。我更願意稱之為供應鏈正常化——顯著通貨緊縮。我認為他們仍然面臨著我們所有人都面臨的大量通膨營運成本的挑戰。所以我不認為他們能夠大幅降低價格。我認為它比我們現在所期待和希望的情況更有支撐力。但坦白說，如果通貨膨脹甚至導致今年的價格上漲，我不會感到驚訝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's question-and-answer session as well as today's event. We want to thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節和今天的活動就到此結束。我們要感謝您的參與。此時您可能會斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。