Banco de Chile (BCH) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Banco de Chile's First Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. If you need a copy of the Management Financial Review, it is available on the company's website. With us today we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer; Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations; and Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital.

大家下午好，歡迎參加智利銀行 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。如果您需要管理財務審查的副本，可以在公司網站上找到。今天與我們在一起的有首席經濟學家兼機構關係官羅德里戈·阿拉維納 (Rodrigo Aravena) 先生； Pablo Mejia，投資者關係主管；以及財務控制和資本主管 Daniel Galarce。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議正在錄音，今天討論的資訊可能包括有關公司財務和經營業績的前瞻性陳述。所有預測都存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱本公司新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的詳細說明。

I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將電話轉給羅德里戈·阿拉維納先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for attending this webcast today where we will present the financial results and achievements of Banco de Chile during the first quarter of this year. We are proud of our overall performance during the quarter. Once again, we led the industry in net income and profitability, capitalization, and risk, among other figures, demonstrating our capacity to generate consistent and solid results over time. Following the structure of the previous quarterly call, we will begin our presentation with a brief analysis of the macroeconomic conditions and competitive landscape we faced, then we will present the most relevant achievements in our strategic initiatives, and finalize with a deeper analysis of financial results.

大家下午好。感謝您參加今天的網路廣播，我們將介紹智利銀行今年第一季的財務表現和成就。我們對本季的整體表現感到自豪。我們再次在淨利潤、盈利能力、資本化和風險等方面領先於行業，這證明了我們有能力隨著時間的推移產生一致和堅實的業績。按照上一季電話會議的結構，我們將首先簡要分析我們面臨的宏觀經濟狀況和競爭格局，然後我們將介紹我們戰略舉措中最相關的成就，最後對財務業績進行更深入的分析。

Please go to Slide #3 to begin the macroenvironment discussion. The Chilean economy is growing again. The activity posted a significant cyclical recovery at the beginning of this year after the sharp macroeconomic adjustment, mainly in 2023 when the economy grew only 0.2%, one of the lowest figures in the region. Nevertheless, it's important to be aware of 2 main aspects related to the recession seen last year. First, the subdued growth resulted from the tightening monetary and fiscal policy, especially between 2022 and 2023. This adjustment was necessary to correct the macroeconomic imbalances that occurred during the pandemic, such as increases in inflation, domestic demand, and [external savings], among others. Second, the CPI in 2023 returned to the policy target, the current account deficit declined to pre-pandemic levels and fiscal debt remained below 40% of the GDP. The normalization of these figures provides further reasons to expect a more sustainable recovery for the country.

請到投影片 #3 開始宏觀環境討論。智利經濟再次成長。在宏觀經濟大幅調整後，今年年初經濟活動出現顯著的周期性復甦，主要是在2023年，經濟成長率僅0.2%，是該地區最低的數字之一。儘管如此，重要的是要了解與去年經濟衰退相關的兩個主要方面。首先，成長放緩是貨幣和財政政策緊縮造成的，特別是在2022年至2023年期間。的增加，除其他外。其次，2023年CPI回歸政策目標，經常專案赤字降至疫情前水平，財政債務佔GDP比重維持在40%以下。這些數字的正常化進一步有理由期待該國實現更永續的復甦。

Undoubtedly, the macro scenario looks better today. According to the monthly GDP figures, the economy went up by 2.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, posting the highest expansion since the same period of 2022. This figure followed the 0.6% and 0.4% year-on-year growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2023, respectively. As a consequence of this recovery, the GDP surpassed the level of activity posted in 2021, which was the previous peak, as the chart on the left clearly shows. The breakdown shows that activity was driven by a positive dynamism in mining. It went up by 6.9% year-on-year, and services, which expanded by 2% year-on-year. The trend of these sectors can be seen in the chart on the top right.

毫無疑問，今天的宏觀情況看起來更好。從月GDP數據來看，第一季經濟年增2.5%，創2022年同期以來最高增幅。由於這次復甦，GDP 超過了 2021 年公佈的經濟活動水平，即先前的峰值，如左圖所示。細分顯示，經濟活動是由採礦業的積極活力所推動的。年增6.9%，服務業較去年同期成長2%。這些板塊的趨勢可以在右上角的圖表中看到。

On a sequential basis, the recovery has also been evident. In the first quarter, the seasonally adjusted GDP posted a 2% quarter-on-quarter rise, or 8.2% on an annualized terms. This was due to a substantial monthly rise of 2% in January, a number that was followed by a solid 0.8% increase in February. This better-than-expected expansion has been one of the, if not the most, important reasons behind the upward revisions in GDP forecast for this year. In this environment, the Central Bank raised its official GDP estimate from the range centered at 1.75% in the Monetary Policy Report released in December to 2.5% in the report released in March. Before finalizing this slide, I'd like to highlight the improvement in external accounts. As you can see in the chart on the bottom right, the current account deficit fell from 8.7% of GDP in 2022 to 3.6% at the end of last year, which is sustainable and consistent with the fundamentals of the Chilean economy. As we will see in the next slide, the normalization in overall activity has impacted prices and interest rate.

從環比來看，復甦也很明顯。一季度，經季節調整的GDP季增2%，年化成長8.2%。這是由於 1 月份月度大幅增長 2%，隨後 2 月份也穩步增長 0.8%。這種好於預期的擴張是今年GDP預測上調的最重要原因之一。在此環境下，央行將官方GDP預期從12月發布的貨幣政策報告中的1.75%上調至3月發布的報告中的2.5%。在完成這張投影片之前，我想強調一下外部帳戶的改進。從右下圖可以看到，經常帳赤字從2022年佔GDP的8.7%下降到去年底的3.6%，這是可持續的，也符合智利經濟的基本面。正如我們將在下一張投影片中看到的那樣，整體活動的正常化已經影響了價格和利率。

Please go to Slide #4. As we've discussed, the substantial decline in domestic spending has been a critical driver for the downward trend in local inflation, as the chart on the upper right shows. In 2023, the headline inflation dropped to 3.9% after posting a yearly rise of 12.7% 1 year ago, returning to the tolerance range set by the Central Bank for the first time in almost 2 years. However, there have been higher-than-expected monthly figures at the beginning of this year as the CPI accumulated a 1.6% rise in the first quarter of this year. In the full quarter of 2023, the CPI rose only by 0.6%. Some of the main drivers explaining this trend include the weakening of the Chilean peso, the persistence of a high inflation rate in trade partners, and the acceleration of the economy, as discussed in the previous slide.

請轉到投影片 #4。正如我們所討論的，國內支出的大幅下降是當地通膨下降趨勢的關鍵驅動因素，如右上圖所示。 2023年，整體通膨率在一年前較去年同期成長12.7%後下降至3.9%，近兩年來首次回到央行設定的容忍區間。然而，年初的月度數據卻出現了高於預期的情況，第一季CPI累計上漲1.6%。 2023年全季CPI僅上漲0.6%。正如上一張投影片中所討論的，解釋這一趨勢的一些主要驅動因素包括智利比索的疲軟、貿易夥伴的持續高通膨率以及經濟的加速。

Nevertheless, it's essential to be aware of the higher volatility of local inflation, which has been exacerbated by implementing a new methodology which includes the introduction of a new reference basket. In this environment, the labor market has remained stable. In the first quarter, the unemployment rate was 8.7%, in line with the 8.8% posted 1 year ago. It's worth mentioning that the still high unemployment compared to the pre-pandemic figures has been explained by a greater dynamism in the labor force, which expanded by 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, in line with the expansion observed in total employment, which went up by 3.4% year-on-year in the same period.

儘管如此，必須意識到當地通膨的波動性較高，實施新的方法（包括引入新的參考籃子）加劇了這種波動。在此環境下，勞動力市場保持穩定。第一季失業率為 8.7%，與一年前的 8.8% 持平。值得一提的是，與疫情前相比，失業率仍居高不下，原因是勞動力活力增強，第一季勞動力年增3.2%，與勞動力總量的擴張一致。

As a result of this, the participation rate rose to 62.4%, in line with the levels observed before the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. In this scenario, the Central Bank continued reducing the interest rate following the easing cycle that began in July last year when the rate was 11.25%. Specifically, the Board reduced the interest rate by 100 basis points in January and 75 basis points in April to 6.5% and has maintained an expansionary bias anticipating further cuts during the rest of the year. This policy has been one of the main drivers of the multilateral weakening of Chilean peso, as the chart on the bottom right shows. I'd like to share our baseline scenario for this year with you.

因此，參與率上升至 62.4%，與 COVID-19 危機開始前觀察到的水平一致。在這種情況下，央行在去年7月開始的寬鬆週期後繼續降息，當時利率為11.25%。具體而言，董事會在 1 月將利率降低了 100 個基點，在 4 月降低了 75 個基點至 6.5%，並保持了擴張性傾向，預計今年剩餘時間將進一步降息。如右下圖所示，這項政策是智利比索多邊走弱的主要驅動因素之一。我想與您分享我們今年的基準情境。

Please go to next Slide #5. We have implemented several changes in our baseline scenario. Specifically, we raised our GDP forecast for this year from 1.5% in the previous earnings call held in February to 2.4% now. As seen in the table of this slide, we foresee a recovery in domestic demand, mainly consumption due to lower inflation and interest rates. Nevertheless, we still expect subdued growth in total investment due to the high interest rate and the persistence of uncertainties related to potential factors. Regarding prices, we increased our CPI forecast for this year from 3% to 3.7%, mainly due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso and the higher-than-expected growth in the first quarter of this year. Based on these trends and considering the probable trend in external rates, mainly in the United States, it's likely that the peso will continue to be weak and consequently the CPI will reach the policy target only by 2025. On monetary policy, we now expect an overnight rate at 5% by the end of this year from the 4.5% we forecasted last quarter.

請轉到下一張投影片#5。我們對基準場景進行了一些更改。具體來說，我們將今年的 GDP 預測從 2 月舉行的上次財報電話會議的 1.5% 上調至目前的 2.4%。正如這張投影片的表格所示，我們預期國內需求將復甦，主要是由於通膨和利率下降而導致消費復甦。儘管如此，由於利率高企以及潛在因素相關的不確定性持續存在，我們仍預期總投資成長將放緩。價格方面，我們將今年CPI預測從3%上調至3.7%，主要是由於智利比索貶值以及今年第一季增速高於預期。基於這些趨勢，並考慮外部利率（主要是美國）的可能趨勢，比索可能會繼續疲軟，因此 CPI 到 2025 年才會達到政策目標。我們上季預測的4.5% 降至5%。

We acknowledge the existence of risks that could affect the macro scenario. From the external front, the growth in main trade partners of Chile and the evolution of several geopolitical conflicts are worth paying attention to. Internally, apart from the evolution related to the discussion of some reforms such as taxes and pensions, it will be important to analyze the results of municipal elections since they have historically been a solid leading indicator of the Presidential and Congress elections. The table on the right summarizes the key dates and political events to monitor.

我們承認存在可能影響宏觀情勢的風險。從外部來看，智利主要貿易夥伴的成長以及一些地緣政治衝突的演變值得關注。在內部，除了與稅收和退休金等一些改革的討論相關的演變之外，分析市政選舉的結果也很重要，因為它們歷來是總統和國會選舉的可靠領先指標。右表總結了需要監控的關鍵日期和政治事件。

As we mentioned in previous conference calls, banks are a perfect reflection of the economy. Having said that, I'd like to move to the next Slide #5 (sic) [6], to analyze how the economy impacted results in the financial industry in the first quarter of 2024. Total loan volumes remain subdued as they are still posting below trend figures. Loans expanded by 4.1% year-on-year in nominal terms, which is only slightly above inflation due to opposite forces. On the weak side, consumer loans posted a 2.5% year-on-year expansion in nominal terms, remaining in negative territory in real terms. A similar situation is observed in commercial loans as they expanded only 3.2% year-on-year nominal, consistent with the fall observed in total investment during the last quarters. Conversely, mortgage loans continue supporting expansion, increasing by 6.9% year-on-year nominal. Despite these figures, it's essential to be aware that the negative trend in the nominal loan growth, as seen in the chart on the bottom right, has been influenced by the normalization in the annual inflation, which declined from 11.1% in the first quarter of 2023 to 3.7% in the first quarter of this year.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中提到的，銀行是經濟的完美反映。話雖如此，我想轉到下一張投影片#5（原文如此）[6]，分析經濟如何影響 2024 年第一季金融業的業績。 。名目貸款年增 4.1%，由於相反的力量，僅略高於通膨。弱勢方面，消費貸款名目年增2.5%，實質仍處於負值區間。商業貸款也出現類似情況，名義年比僅成長 3.2%，與前幾季總投資的下降情況一致。相反，抵押貸款繼續支持擴張，名義同比增長6.9%。儘管有這些數字，但必須意識到，如右下圖所示，名目貸款成長的負面趨勢受到了年度通膨正常化的影響，年度通膨率從 2019 年第一季的 11.1% 下降。季度成長至3.7%。

Overall, the still low dynamism in loans is consistent with the results from the first quarter loan survey conducted by the Central Bank, which showed weaker demand across most sectors, mainly in personal banking, without changes in supply from banks. Considering this scenario, we expect loans to increase by nearly 6% by the end of this year as long as the economy continues showing a gradual recovery during the next quarters. In this context, the industry reported a net income for the first quarter of CLP 1,172 billion, equal to an ROE of 14.5%. When compared to the prior year, quarterly net income grew by 12%. This was attributed to a 15% increase in operating income and a decrease of 8% in expected credit losses. This was partially offset by an 18% rise in operating expenses. In terms of delinquencies, the weak economic environment has affected NPLs and this continued to rise. The industry reached 2.4% this quarter, up from 1.9% in the same period last year and 2.2% from fourth quarter of 2023. We expect that credit risk will remain as the main concern for the banking industry in the short term until we see further improvement in the economy and the job market.

總體而言，貸款活力仍然較低，這與央行第一季貸款調查的結果一致，該調查顯示大多數行業（主要是個人銀行業務）的需求疲軟，但銀行供應沒有變化。考慮到這種情況，只要經濟在接下來的幾季繼續呈現逐步復甦的勢頭，我們預計到今年年底貸款將增加近6%。在此背景下，該產業第一季淨利潤為11,720億智利比索，相當於14.5%的ROE。與上年同期相比，季度淨利成長12%。這歸因於營業收入成長 15%，預期信貸損失下降 8%。這被營運費用成長 18% 部分抵銷。不良貸款方面，受經濟環境疲弱影響，不良貸款持續上升。本季該產業成長率達2.4%，高於去年同期的1.9%，較2023 年第四季的2.2%有所上升。看到經濟和就業市場的改善。

Now I'd like to pass the call to Pablo who will go into more detail about Banco de Chile's advances and the financial performance.

現在我想將電話轉給巴勃羅，他將更詳細地介紹智利銀行的預付款和財務表現。

Thank you, Rodrigo. I would like to begin with our strategic advances. Please go to Slide #8. The strong results that we are consistently posting are the fruit of a sound strategic plan with pillars based on customer centricity, productivity, and sustainability, which we deploy through 6 core priorities, as listed in the middle of this slide. Through these priorities, we are sure that we can meet our mid-term goals as shown on the right of this slide.

謝謝你，羅德里戈。我想從我們的策略進展開始。請轉到投影片 #8。我們持續發布的強勁成果是健全策略計畫的成果，其支柱基於以客戶為中心、生產力和永續性，我們透過本投影片中間列出的 6 個核心優先事項進行部署。透過這些優先事項，我們確信我們能夠實現如本投影片右側所示的中期目標。

First, we have a Net Promoter Score of 76.4% at March 2024, which is 340 basis points above our goal and our corporate reputation is amongst the top 3 in Chile. These metrics are assessed by reputable external firms that are independent from us. In terms of market share, we aim to be the leader in both commercial and consumer loans as well as demand deposits denominated in local currency. In cost-to-income, we have performed much better than our target, although this has been partly fostered by our solid top line. We should be able to keep on improving our efficiency through the productivity initiatives that we will explain later in the presentation. Lastly, we are confident that we will keep leading the industry in terms of return on average capital and reserves in the long term.

首先，截至 2024 年 3 月，我們的淨推薦值為 76.4%，比我們的目標高出 340 個基點，我們的企業聲譽在智利名列前三名。這些指標由獨立於我們的信譽良好的外部公司評估。就市場佔有率而言，我們的目標是成為商業貸款、消費貸款以及本幣活期存款領域的領導者。在成本收入比方面，我們的表現比我們的目標好得多，儘管這在一定程度上是由我們穩健的營收所推動的。我們應該能夠透過我們將在稍後的演示中解釋的生產力計劃來不斷提高我們的效率。最後，我們有信心在平均資本和儲備回報率方面長期保持行業領先。

In the next slide, we will review some of our main accomplishments in our key strategic areas: digital banking, efficiency, and ESG. Let me start with digital banking. Please move to the next slide. In our commitment to being the best bank for our customers, we continue to make significant strides in digital innovation. This quarter, we launched the new digital savings account FAN Ahorro that allows customers to earn profits from their cash balances, widening the investment alternatives for current and new customers. Furthermore, we have implemented digital tools to improve customer experience at branches, ensuring faster and more efficient service, and we have renewed our mobile app Mi Pass for easier and more secure financial transactions.

在下一張投影片中，我們將回顧我們在關鍵策略領域的一些主要成就：數位銀行、效率和 ESG。讓我從數位銀行開始。請移至下一張投影片。我們致力於成為客戶最好的銀行，我們繼續在數位創新方面取得重大進展。本季度，我們推出了新的數位儲蓄帳戶 FAN Ahorro，讓客戶可以從現金餘額中賺取利潤，從而拓寬了現有和新客戶的投資選擇。此外，我們還實施了數位工具來改善分行的客戶體驗，確保更快、更有效率的服務，並更新了行動應用程式 Mi Pass，以實現更輕鬆、更安全的金融交易。

In addition, we have made significant progress in digitalizing key sales processes in Retail Banking that enhance the sales experience and will, at the same time, foster higher efficiency and productivity levels. The percentage of digital process variants and their adoption has importantly increased in the recent year. Today, more than 80% of digital consumer credit applications and more than 30% in digital current account applications are processed through digital channels, reducing wait time, process application costs, and as a result has increased originations.

此外，我們在零售銀行關鍵銷售流程數位化方面取得了重大進展，增強了銷售體驗，同時提高了效率和生產力水準。近年來，數位流程變體的百分比及其採用率顯著增加。如今，超過 80% 的數位消費信貸申請和超過 30% 的數位經常帳戶申請都是透過數位管道處理的，減少了等待時間、處理申請成本，從而增加了發放量。

In terms of efficiency and productivity, we continued to implement several initiatives to optimize our operations this quarter. Thanks to the increased digital adoption, we worked on simplifying functions and roles at our branches and other distribution channels. We also have initiated the implementation of a new system that will automate and centralize procure-to-pay activities. Moreover, we introduced a new process to streamline infrastructure investment flow, ensuring a more efficient use of resources. Also, through the structural optimization, we have improved our synergies with some of our subsidiaries. On the ESG front, our commitment to sustainability and social responsibility remains unwavering. This quarter, we published our 2023 Annual Report, which covers our financial and sustainability performance and makes significant advances to accomplish local and international standards such as SASB and GRI. Furthermore, to better integrate ESG risks and opportunities into our business, we initiated the measurement of our loan portfolio's carbon footprint, the results of which are expected to be released early next year. Additionally, as part of our commitment to Chile, we have held several corporate volunteering activities such as the solidarity campaign in response to the wildfires, waste collection days, financial education courses, scholarships to develop tech talent, and contests to promote entrepreneurship.

在效率和生產力方面，本季我們繼續實施多項措施來優化營運。由於數位化應用的增加，我們致力於簡化分支機構和其他分銷管道的職能和角色。我們也開始實施一個新系統，該系統將自動化和集中化採購到付款活動。此外，我們引入了新流程來簡化基礎設施投資流程，確保更有效地利用資源。此外，透過結構優化，我們也提升了與部分子公司的綜效。在 ESG 方面，我們對永續發展和社會責任的承諾仍然堅定不移。本季度，我們發布了 2023 年年度報告，其中涵蓋了我們的財務和永續發展績效，並在實現 SASB 和 GRI 等本地和國際標準方面取得了重大進展。此外，為了更好地將ESG風險和機會融入我們的業務中，我們啟動了貸款組合的碳足跡測量，測量結果預計將於明年初發布。此外，作為我們對智利承諾的一部分，我們舉辦了多項企業志工活動，例如應對野火的團結運動、垃圾收集日、金融教育課程、培養技術人才的獎學金以及促進創業的競賽。

Please turn to Slide 11 to begin our discussion on our results. Net income once again soared this quarter, posting CLP 298 billion, equal to a return on average equity of 22.6% as shown on the chart on the left, when compared to our peers, we outranked all of them with a huge gap in both net income and return on average equity as illustrated in the charts to the right. Our strong financial results reflect our effective customer-focused strategy over the long term and our commitment to building a sustainable bank, as evidenced by steady growth in customer income. Our long-term ROE target is about 18%, but we foresee that ROE will stay higher than this level in the near term, around 19% in 2024.

請翻到投影片 11 開始我們對結果的討論。本季淨利再次飆升，達到2,980億智利比索，相當於左圖22.6%的平均股本回報率，與同業相比，我們的排名全部領先，淨利潤差距巨大收入和平均股本回報率如右圖所示。我們強勁的財務表現反映了我們以客戶為中心的長期有效策略以及我們對建立永續發展銀行的承諾，客戶收入的穩定成長就證明了這一點。我們的長期 ROE 目標約為 18%，但我們預計近期 ROE 將保持在該水準之上，2024 年約為 19%。

Please turn to Slide 12. Operating revenues grew 11% year-on-year, which is in line with the economic and business recovery that we have been witnessing. More importantly, this expansion was driven by customer income, which rose 14% year-on-year while non-customer income remained relatively flat by expanding 3% year-on-year. Customer income growth was driven by a strong increase in loan margins, higher commercial margins from deposits given our solid position in core demand deposits and active pricing management in time deposits. Regarding income from loans, consumer loans were the main driver of this rise thanks to an expansion in spreads and a 5% increment in average loan volumes.

請看投影片12。更重要的是，這項擴張是由客戶收入推動的，客戶收入年增14%，而非客戶收入則相對持平，較去年同期成長3%。客戶收入成長的推動因素包括貸款利潤率的強勁成長、存款商業利潤率的提高（鑑於我們在活期存款核心地位的穩固以及定期存款的主動定價管理）。在貸款收入方面，由於利差擴大和平均貸款額增加5%，消費貸款是這一成長的主要動力。

Mortgage loans also improved customer income, primarily thanks to an annual increase of over 7% in average loans. On the other hand, commercial loans were a drag on income expansion as average balances decreased year-on-year due to external factors, mainly related to the still high interest rates and economic environment. The charts on the right show how we have performed relative to our competitors. We achieved 4.7% net interest margin this quarter, much higher than any of our peers. We also had a comparable advantage in net fee margins and in our total operating income, as shown on the charts on this slide. Our outstanding performance reflects our consistent business strategy and how we have been able to provide our premium customer base with improved value offerings over time in lending and non-lending products, which has resulted in a solid track record in customer income, regardless of the economic backdrop. Concerning noncustomer income, which was a revenue-generating driver last year, the tempered year-on-year growth had primarily to do with the decrease in inflation in the first quarter of 2024 when compared to a year earlier, effect that was to also some extent by the positive impact of lower short-term interest rates on both our funding through time deposits and revenues from trading activities.

抵押貸款還提高了客戶收入，這主要得益於平均貸款年增長率超過 7%。另一方面，受外部因素影響，商業貸款平均餘額年減，拖累收入擴張，主要與利率仍高企和經濟環境有關。右邊的圖表顯示了我們相對於競爭對手的表現。本季我們實現了 4.7% 的淨息差，遠高於任何同業。正如這張投影片上的圖表所示，我們在淨費用率和總營業收入方面也具有相當的優勢。我們的出色業績反映了我們一貫的業務策略，以及我們如何能夠隨著時間的推移，在貸款和非貸款產品方面為我們的優質客戶群提供更高的價值產品，從而在客戶收入方面取得了良好的記錄，無論經濟狀況如何背景。就非客戶收入而言，這是去年的創收驅動力，同比增長放緩主要與 2024 年第一季通膨較上年同期下降有關，這也對一些企業產生了影響。定期存款融資和交易活動收入所產生的正面影響。

Please turn to Slide #13. As the chart on the left shows, total loans increased by 2.8% year-over-year and 1.3% quarter-over-quarter. The main driver of this year-over-year growth was retail loans. Mortgage loans went up by 7.8% in the 12-month period, mainly due to inflation but also some sustained demand. Consumer loans expanded slowly by rising 4.5% in the same period. We should mention that we are noticing a slight improvement from previous quarters in commercial loan activity, and we anticipate this to persist as the economy improves and interest rates come down.

請轉到投影片 #13。如左圖所示，貸款總額較去年同期成長2.8%，較上季成長1.3%。零售貸款是年成長的主要動力。抵押貸款在過去 12 個月內增長了 7.8%，這主要是由於通貨膨脹，但也有一些持續的需求。消費貸款成長緩慢，同期成長4.5%。值得一提的是，我們注意到商業貸款活動較前幾季略有改善，我們預計隨著經濟改善和利率下降，這種情況將持續下去。

It's important to highlight that one of the strengths of Banco de Chile is its highly diversified loan book as shown in the breakdown in the chart on the top right by product, and in the chart on the bottom right details our commercial loan portfolio by economic sector. Generally, what we have seen in the past is that when 1 part of the economy is weaker, we can partially offset this negative impact by growing another part of our portfolio.

需要強調的是，智利銀行的優勢之一是其高度多元化的貸款帳目，如右上圖表中按產品細分所示，右下圖表詳細介紹了我們按經濟部門劃分的商業貸款組合。一般來說，我們過去看到的是，當經濟的某個部分較弱時，我們可以透過增加投資組合的另一部分來部分抵消這種負面影響。

Today, 64% of loans are concentrated in the retail segment, including SMEs, and the remaining 36% in the wholesale segment. This distribution has not changed much in recent quarters, but during the pandemic, our growth was focused on low-risk and low-margin loans and securities, leading to a significant change in asset mix, affecting our NIMs. However, we expect that our growth in the next periods will continue advancing as we have seen in the first quarter of 2024, from which we should return to the composition seen before the pandemic. That should enable us to achieve similar levels of NIMs as well.

如今，64%的貸款集中在包括中小企業在內的零售領域，其餘36%則集中在批發領域。這種分佈在最近幾季沒有太大變化，但在疫情期間，我們的成長集中在低風險和低利潤的貸款和證券上，導致資產結構發生重大變化，影響了我們的淨利差。然而，我們預計接下來幾個時期的成長將繼續推進，就像我們在 2024 年第一季看到的那樣，我們應該回到大流行之前的組成。這應該使我們能夠達到類似的淨利差水準。

From the perspective of concentration, it's important to mention that our commercial loan portfolio is spread out in a broad range of economic sectors, as shown in the chart on the bottom right. As such, we do not have a high reliance or concentration risk in any industry, which allows us to reduce the possible impacts from economic downturns in certain sectors such as real estate, construction, or the current situation affecting the private health industry, among others. For 2024, we expect total loans to grow slightly above the industry average. As mentioned earlier, the main year-on-year change we foresee is a pickup in commercial loans to grow slightly above inflation, and we expect that consumer loans and mortgage loans will be driving total loan growth.

從集中度的角度來看，值得一提的是，我們的商業貸款組合分佈在廣泛的經濟領域，如右下圖所示。因此，我們在任何行業中都不存在高度依賴或集中的風險，這使我們能夠減少房地產、建築等某些行業經濟衰退可能產生的影響，或影響私人醫療行業等的當前形勢。 2024 年，我們預計貸款總額成長將略高於產業平均。如前所述，我們預期的主要年比變化是商業貸款成長略高於通膨，我們預期消費貸款和抵押貸款將推動貸款總額成長。

Please turn to slide #14 to discuss our superior balance sheet structure. As shown on the charts on the top left, our asset and liability structure is robust. Our business strategy is concentrated on commercial banking, and our main revenue stream comes from loans, which accounted for 67% of our total assets as of March 2024. However, it's important to note that starting from April, the density of loans will increase as we will use part of our debt securities portfolio to repay 2/3 of the FCIC obligation. Specifically, our portfolio of financial instruments has changed since December 2023, as we have reinvested proceeds from the scheduled maturity of PDBC and CDs issued by local banks and longer-term bonds issued by both the Chilean Central Bank and the Chilean Government in the Liquidity Deposit Program, or PDL, provided by the Central Bank to facilitate the repayment of the FCIC. The PDLs are booked as financial instruments measured at amortized cost and earn the monetary policy rate while held in the portfolio. By using these funds, we paid the first tranche of the FCIC on April 1, 2024. The rest of the FCIC is coming due on July 1, 2024. This will lead to a reduction of our balance sheet and financial instruments.

請前往投影片 #14 來討論我們優越的資產負債表結構。如左上方圖表所示，我們的資產和負債結構穩健。我們的商業策略集中於商業銀行，我們的主要收入來源來自貸款，截至2024年3月，貸款占我們總資產的67%。使用部分債務證券投資組合來償還FCIC 義務的2/3。具體來說，我們的金融工具組合自2023 年12 月以來發生了變化，因為我們將當地銀行發行的PDBC 和CD 的預定到期收益以及智利中央銀行和智利政府發行的長期債券的收益再投資於流動性存款計劃（PDL），由中央銀行提供，以促進 FCIC 的償還。 PDL 被記為以攤餘成本計量的金融工具，並在投資組合中持有時賺取貨幣政策利率。透過使用這些資金，我們於 2024 年 4 月 1 日支付了第一筆 FCIC。

On the liabilities side, deposits are the main source of funding, representing approximately 51% of our assets. Within deposits, time deposits are the most relevant financing source on our balance sheet, as you can see on the chart to the right. During the pandemic, demand deposits took a more important role in funding, but this has returned to normal, in line with long-term levels. This is especially important because we are recording lower cost of funds due to the sharp drop in the monetary policy rate.

在負債方面，存款是我們主要的資金來源，約占我們資產的51%。在存款中，定期存款是我們資產負債表上最相關的融資來源，如右圖所示。疫情期間，活期存款在融資中發揮了更為重要的作用，但目前已恢復正常，符合長期水準。這一點尤其重要，因為由於貨幣政策利率大幅下降，我們的資金成本正在下降。

Bonds are the next most important liability, representing 17%. We use these to mainly finance our mortgage loan portfolio, which reduces both liquidity risk and repricing risk, and they are more similar from the perspective of term and currency gapping. We expect that bond issuances will rise when mortgage loan growth resumes to long-term growth rates. Currently, new bond offerings are mostly used to repay scheduled amortizations.

債券是第二重要的負債，佔 17%。我們用這些主要為我們的抵押貸款組合提供資金，這不僅降低了流動性風險，也降低了重新定價風險，而且從期限和貨幣缺口的角度來看，它們更加相似。我們預計，當抵押貸款成長恢復至長期成長率時，債券發行量將會上升。目前，新發債券主要用於償還預定攤銷。

As you can see on the table on the bottom left, we keep a high level of liquidity that largely exceeds the limits set by the regulator. Our liquidity coverage ratio reached 237% as of March 2024, 137 basis points higher than the regulatory limit, and the net stable funding ratio attained a level of 125%, 45 basis points higher than the limit during the same period. This is the consequence of both proactive management of asset and liability term mismatches and also a sound liquidity buffer that remained above CLP 6.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2024. More importantly, these figures already reflect the repayment of the FCIC tranche, the first tranche. So, as we have mentioned before, our liquidity position will not be significantly affected by the maturity of this funding source. Finally, our UF GAP for the period was CLP 8 trillion, meaning our sensitivity to inflation is about CLP 80 billion for a 1% change in inflation.

正如您在左下角的表格中看到的，我們保持著高水準的流動性，很大程度上超出了監管機構設定的限制。截至2024年3月，流動性覆蓋率達237%，較監理限額高出137個基點；淨穩定資金比率達125%，較同期限額高出45個基點。這是積極管理資產和負債期限錯配的結果，也是2024年第一季維持在6.5兆智利比索以上的良好流動性緩衝的結果。的償還情況。因此，正如我們先前所提到的，我們的流動性狀況不會受到該資金來源期限的重大影響。最後，我們這段時期的 UF GAP 為 8 兆智利比索，這意味著對於通貨膨脹 1% 的變化，我們對通膨的敏感度約為 800 億智利比索。

Please turn to Slide 15. Banco de Chile is the best capitalized bank amongst peers in the industry. As of March 2024, our Basel III ratio was 16.9%, well above the fully loaded limit of 12.75% that applies to us, as shown in the table on the right. Regarding CET1, we reached 13.3% this quarter, 40 basis points lower than December 2023. This decrease is mainly explained by a dividend distribution that was higher than the dividend provisioned in equity, as our shareholders agreed to distribute 80% of net distributable earnings for the full year 2023 instead of the 60% already provisioned. Nonetheless, our CET1 trend over the last few years has significantly outperformed both our main competitors, as shown in the chart on the bottom left and well above the limit established by the regulator. With these levels of capital, we are easily compliant with both phase-in and fully loaded Basel III requirements, while feeling confident to address the pending steps in the implementation of Basel III.

請參閱投影片 15。截至 2024 年 3 月，我們的巴塞爾 III 比率為 16.9%，遠高於適用於我們的滿載限制 12.75%，如右表所示。就CET1 而言，本季我們達到13.3%，比2023 年12 月低40 個基點。 % 分配給2023 年全年，而不是已經撥備的 60%。儘管如此，我們過去幾年的 CET1 趨勢明顯優於我們的主要競爭對手，如左下圖所示，遠高於監管機構設定的限制。憑藉這些資本水平，我們可以輕鬆滿足分階段實施和滿載巴塞爾協議 III 的要求，同時有信心解決實施巴塞爾協議 III 中懸而未決的步驟。

Please turn to Slide 16. In the first quarter of this year, expected credit losses reached CLP 113 billion, 7% higher than the same period last year and 12% lower when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Cost of risk for the period was the same level as our long-term rate of 1.2%, mostly generated, as you can see on the chart on the bottom left, by the Wholesale Banking segment. As we mentioned in prior calls, delinquencies have been gradually increasing since 2021 from a low level of 0.9% to 1.5% in this quarter, but significantly below the levels of our main peers, as shown on the chart on the top right. This increment is mainly due to the normalization of the abnormally low levels recorded during the pandemic. Also, most of our rise has been due to some specific wholesale customers that have defaulted, although exposures to them are collateralized. This has translated into a rise in NPLs, but only a slight rise in the cost of risk, as you can see on the chart in the middle right. However, we expect that NPLs will gradually decrease with the expected improvement in the economy and job market this year. It's also important to note that consumer loan NPLs are at similar levels we recorded prior to the pandemic.

請參閱投影片 16。水平，正如您在左下角圖表中看到的那樣，主要是由批發銀行業務部門產生的。正如我們在先前的電話會議中提到的，自2021 年以來，拖欠率一直在逐漸增加，從0.9% 的低水平上升到本季度的1.5%，但明顯低於我們主要同行的水平，如右上角的圖表所示。這一增量主要是由於大流行期間記錄的異常低水平正常化。此外，我們的上漲大部分是由於一些特定的批發客戶違約，儘管對他們的風險敞口是有抵押的。這轉化為不良貸款的增加，但風險成本僅略有上升，如右中圖表所示。但我們預計，隨著今年經濟和就業市場的預期改善，不良貸款將逐漸下降。同樣重要的是要注意，消費貸款不良貸款與我們在大流行之前記錄的水平相似。

Finally, the chart on the bottom right indicates that we have the best loan portfolio quality and the highest coverage ratio at 2.6x, including additional provisions of CLP 700 billion, compared to our peers. This puts us in a favorable position for handling unexpected risk deterioration. In line with this, I should also mention that the CMF's standard model for provisioning consumer loans must be implemented by January 2025. As a reminder, this model establishes a new methodology to calculate the probability of default and loss given default. Likewise, we've decided to use part of our additional provisions to address the impact, which is expected to be in the range of CLP 60 billion to CLP 65 billion.

最後，右下圖顯示，與同業相比，我們擁有最好的貸款組合品質和最高的覆蓋率（2.6倍），其中包括7,000億智利比索的額外撥備。這使我們處於應對意外風險惡化的有利位置。與此一致的是，我還應該提到，CMF撥備消費貸款的標準模型必須在2025年1月之前實施。損失。同樣，我們決定使用部分附加條款來應對影響，預計影響範圍為 600 億至 650 億智利比索。

Please turn to Slide 17. This quarter, expenses amounted to CLP 284 billion, which is 8% more than the same period last year and 11% less than the fourth quarter of 2023. The main reason for the yearly increase is inflation that reached 4.3% year over year, which affects most expense items such as salaries, rent, external services, among others. It is also worth noting that the significant improvements in efficiency that we have made recently have enabled us to cover the most important increases in operating expenses aimed at implementing the progress in digitalization, IT infrastructure, and cybersecurity that are required to deal with the deep transformation process that the banking business is facing.

請參閱投影片 17。支出項目，如薪資、租金、外部服務等。還值得注意的是，我們最近在效率方面取得的顯著提高使我們能夠承擔最重要的營運支出成長，這些支出旨在實現應對深度轉型所需的數位化、IT基礎設施和網路安全方面的進展。銀行業務面臨的流程。

The chart on the top right is a more detailed breakdown of expense growth. Personnel costs increased 5.5% year over year because of a rise in salaries, mainly due to inflation adjustments on wages. Employees have their salaries indexed to inflation at least twice a year and, to a lesser degree, a rise in wages and benefits as a result of the collective bargaining process carried out during the fourth quarter of 2023 with the banks' unions. In addition, administrative expenses rose by 10% during the same period, driven by an increase in IT expenses related to software licenses updates and technological infrastructure services, as well as higher expenses in maintenance of fixed assets, primarily related to improvements focused on facing the challenges of self-service and digitalization in branches. Depreciation, amortization, and other expenses also rose during the period, primarily as a result of higher operational risk write-offs related to external fraud and payment channels.

右上角的圖表是費用成長的更詳細細分。人員成本年增5.5%，原因是薪資上漲，主要是由於通貨膨脹對薪資的調整。員工的薪資每年至少兩次與通貨膨脹掛鉤，由於 2023 年第四季與銀行工會進行的集體談判過程，薪資和福利有所上漲。此外，由於與軟體許可證更新和技術基礎設施服務相關的 IT 費用增加，以及固定資產維護費用增加（主要與專注於面向客戶的改進相關），管理費用在同一時期增長了 10%。數位化的挑戰。折舊、攤銷和其他費用在此期間也有所增加，主要是由於與外部詐欺和支付管道相關的操作風險沖銷增加。

Regarding the efficiency ratio, calculated as total operating expenses to total operating income, achieved 36.4% in the first quarter of 2024. When compared to competitors, we continued to lead with a wide gap in efficiency, as shown in the chart on the bottom right. We believe by controlling our costs, improving our productivity, and employing technology, that we will maintain our strong efficiency levels in 2024 at a level close to 40% and in the long term under 42%.

效率方面，以總營業費用佔總營業收入計算，2024年第一季達到36.4%。我們相信，透過控製成本、提高生產力和採用技術，我們將在 2024 年將強勁的效率水平保持在接近 40% 的水平，並長期保持在 42% 以下。

Please turn to Slide 18. Before we go into the Q&A session, I want to briefly recap the main points. We raised our GDP and CPI forecast for 2024 to 2.4% and 3.7%, respectively, based on actual information for the start of the year. We also think that the Central Bank will slow down the pace of rate cuts to 5% by the end of the year. Our outstanding long-term strategy, together with strong management of market and credit risk, is the basis of our success. This has enabled us to be the leaders in the industry consistently in profitability, operational income, asset quality, productivity, and capital adequacy. We are confident that we'll continue to provide the best performance amongst our peers in Chile with a long-term ROE of 18%.

請參閱投影片 18。根據年初的實際信息，我們將 2024 年 GDP 和 CPI 預測分別上調至 2.4%和 3.7%。我們也認為央行將在年底前將降息步伐放緩至5%。我們出色的長期策略以及對市場和信用風險的強有力管理是我們成功的基礎。這使我們在獲利能力、營業收入、資產品質、生產力和資本充足率方面始終處於行業領先地位。我們有信心，我們將繼續以 18% 的長期 ROE 提供智利同行中最好的業績。

Thanks for listening. If you have any questions, we'd be happy to answer them.

感謝收聽。如果您有任何疑問，我們很樂意回答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mr. Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的Ernesto Gabilondo 先生。

Congrats on your results. My first question will be on your reserve coverage ratio. So, you will be expanding the loan book above the industry levels, will be growing again in consumer loans, and then you will have to recognize this new credit reserve requirements methodology next year. So, just wondering, where should we think about the reserve coverage ratio in the medium term? And then my second question is on market-related revenue. So, this line has been very volatile. So, what should we expect for this line? If we consider this [FDIC] payment, would that be impacting this line? Or what should be the net impact in Chilean pesos of these FDIC payments overall? And then my last question is on FAN. We have seen it has been growing nicely in terms of digital deposits, but how much are you doing in terms of digital loans with FAN?

恭喜你的結果。我的第一個問題是關於你們的準備金覆蓋率。因此，您將把貸款規模擴大到行業水平之上，消費貸款將再次增長，然後您明年將必須認識到這種新的信貸準備金要求方法。那麼，我想知道，中期來看，我們應該在哪裡考慮準備金覆蓋率？我的第二個問題是與市場相關的收入。所以，這條線一直都非常不穩定。那麼，我們對這條線應該有什麼期待呢？如果我們考慮這筆 [FDIC] 付款，這會影響這條線嗎？或者，這些 FDIC 支付的智利比索總體淨影響是多少？我的最後一個問題是關於 FAN 的。我們看到它在數位存款方面增長良好，但您在 FAN 的數位貸款方面做了多少？

In terms of the coverage ratio, today we have a higher coverage ratio than we've had in the past because of the additional provisions that we've maintained on the balance sheet. In the long term, we should consider that the levels of coverage ratio, considering everything that is going on and considering an improvement in the economy, et cetera, should tend to return to the levels that we had prior to the pandemic, which is around the 2x, maybe slightly lower, but around the long term levels that we had prior to the pandemic. We don't think that we should have what we had during the peaks of the pandemic, 3x, 3.5x, because that's very high. We should return to those levels. In terms of the market revenues, I'll pass the call to Daniel Galarce.

就覆蓋率而言，由於我們在資產負債表上保留了額外撥備，今天我們的覆蓋率比過去更高。從長遠來看，我們應該考慮到，考慮到正在發生的一切以及經濟的改善等因素，覆蓋率水平應該會恢復到大流行之前的水平，即大約2 倍，可能略低，但大約是大流行之前的長期水平。我們認為我們不應該擁有大流行高峰期間的3倍、3.5倍，因為那非常高。我們應該回到這些水平。就市場收入而言，我會將電話轉給 Daniel Galarce。

Yes. In terms of the market revenues, you have to consider that there are some line items in the P&L that you should consider jointly. For instance, the effects of exchange rate that you can see in our P&L are also very related with the effects that you are seeing in trading derivatives, for instance, since trading derivatives have an effects exposure as well. So, when you look at the core business in terms of the FX, you shouldn't see a very important volatility. Actually, we are seeing some more midterm figures in terms of FX spot, for instance, and also the management of our intraday and overnight position as well. So, there is no issue related the market revenues. And in terms of the FSIC, the guidance that we provided in our press release is already considering the effect of the repayment of the FSIC. And actually, the FSIC, of course, will translate into lower revenues, however, considering the FSIC standalone. But you have to consider that we are also benefiting from the decrease and the expected decrease in short-term interest rates on the funding of our position and our asset positions. In addition, the net interest margin in loans, basically lending spread, should also increase a little bit considering that some of the former loans are maturing as well and with lower spreads. So, all in all, we are going to have an effect in our P&L from the FSIC, but it's basically offsetting some other effects that will benefit our NIM as well.

是的。就市場收入而言，您必須考慮損益表中有一些項目需要共同考慮。例如，您在損益表中看到的匯率影響也與您在衍生性商品交易中看到的影響非常相關，因為衍生性商品交易也具有影響風險。因此，當您從外匯角度審視核心業務時，您不應該看到非常重要的波動。事實上，我們看到了更多外匯現貨的中期數據，以及我們的日內和隔夜部位的管理。因此，不存在與市場收入相關的問題。就 FSIC 而言，我們在新聞稿中提供的指引已經考慮了 FSIC 償還的影響。事實上，考慮到 FSIC 的獨立性，FSIC 當然會轉化為較低的收入。但你必須考慮到，我們也受益於我們部位和資產部位融資的短期利率的下降和預期下降。此外，考慮到一些先前的貸款也即將到期且利差較低，貸款的淨利差（主要是貸款利差）也應該會略有增加。因此，總而言之，我們的 FSIC 將對我們的損益產生影響，但它基本上抵消了一些其他對我們的淨利差也有利的影響。

And in terms of our strategy and overall strategy for growth in Banco de Chile, we're a universal bank that's in all segments of the economy. One of those areas obviously is consumer loans, and we've been growing quite strongly over the past few years. We've been gaining market share in this area. Today we have a market share of almost 19%, and we expect to continue growing in this segment because it's a very attractive segment for us. It's a segment that we want to be in, a segment in the middle and upper income individuals, and we're using the FAN account to continue expanding our customer base. So, by using this strategy, this focus in this area, we have, maybe I can say, 4 pillars to obtain the success of continuing to grow. So, the adopting of digital solutions in order to improve customer service and for customers to receive their products quicker, also more intelligence and commercial campaigns, and accurate business analytics in order to provide the customers with the products and services that they want through the channels that they need and understand their needs. We're also very active in preapproved loans. And we've been implementing controls and procedures in order to improve the commercial discipline across the entire bank. So, that's really been helping in order to drive sales within the bank originations of consumer loans and is one of the reasons why you can see that we continue to grow in consumer loans. But we've maintained a very good NPL ratio during this time. We haven't grown the NPLs of this product significantly over the past year. It's pretty much the same. And I think it's worthy to mention that we have a fantastic loyalty program in the credit cards. So, customers using our credit cards receive fantastic benefits, and this has been driving the usage of our cards, especially in this time of higher digital use of more digital channels rather than cash.

就我們的策略和智利銀行的整體成長策略而言，我們是一家涉足經濟各個領域的全能銀行。這些領域之一顯然是消費貸款，過去幾年我們的成長相當強勁。我們一直在這個領域獲得市場份額。如今，我們的市佔率接近 19%，我們預計該細分市場將繼續成長，因為它對我們來說是一個非常有吸引力的細分市場。這是我們想要進入的一個細分市場，一個中高收入人群，我們正在使用 FAN 帳戶來繼續擴大我們的客戶群。因此，透過使用這項策略，重點關注這一領域，也許我可以說，我們擁有四大支柱來獲得持續成長的成功。因此，採用數位解決方案來改善客戶服務，讓客戶更快地收到產品，同時採取更多的情報和商業活動以及準確的業務分析，以便透過管道為客戶提供他們想要的產品和服務他們需要並了解他們的需求。我們在預先批准的貸款方面也非常積極。我們一直在實施控制和程序，以改善整個銀行的商業紀律。因此，這確實有助於推動消費貸款銀行發放的銷售，也是您可以看到我們消費貸款持續成長的原因之一。但在此期間我們保持了非常好的不良貸款率。去年我們該產品的不良貸款並沒有大幅增加。幾乎是一樣的。我認為值得一提的是，我們在信用卡方面擁有出色的忠誠度計劃。因此，使用我們信用卡的客戶可以獲得巨大的好處，這一直在推動我們信用卡的使用，特別是在這個數位化程度更高、使用更多數位管道而不是現金的時代。

Just a follow up in FAN. So, as you mentioned, you are using a lot of these digital savings accounts from FAN to leverage that on the consumer portfolio. But just wanted to understand if those loans are digital or are they traditional ones. So, just wanted to understand how much is going on digital loans.

只是 FAN 的後續行動。因此，正如您所提到的，您正在使用 FAN 的大量數位儲蓄帳戶來利用消費者投資組合。但只是想了解這些貸款是數位貸款還是傳統貸款。所以，我只是想了解數位貸款的金額。

You have to take into consideration after the pandemic, most customers are very active in using digital channels. So, even before the pandemic, more than half, if I'm not mistaken, were originated online, and that continues. That's by far the case today. Most of consumer loans are originated online. And through these new digital channels, it provides us with a new customer base to increase the level of customers. So, if we look at, for example, the digital consumer credit loans, 84% is being done online. If we look 1 year ago, we had 66%. We look at time deposits, for example, which is a product that customers are using more actively today because they understand the benefits that they receive and because of the higher interest rates, it was 75% were being done online 1 year ago, and today it's 81%. So, this is not only better for customers, but it's also better for efficiency and productivity. It's one of the areas that we've been focusing on our productivity in the bank to continue improving our savings.

你必須考慮到疫情之後，大多數客戶都非常積極地使用數位管道。因此，即使在大流行之前，如果我沒記錯的話，超過一半的內容都是源自在線，而且這種情況仍在繼續。今天的情況就是這樣。大多數消費貸款都是在線上發放的。而透過這些新的數位管道，它為我們提供了新的客戶群，從而提高客戶的水平。例如，如果我們看一下數位消費信用​​貸款，84% 是在網路上完成的。如果我們看看 1 年前，我們有 66%。例如，我們專注於定期存款，這是一種客戶現在更積極使用的產品，因為他們了解自己可以獲得的好處，而且由於利率較高，1 年前有 75% 是在網上完成的，而今天是81 %。因此，這不僅對客戶更好，而且對效率和生產力也更好。這是我們一直關注銀行生產力以持續提高儲蓄的領域之一。

Our next question comes from Mr. Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Tito Labarta 先生。

Two questions. And I saw you increased a little bit the ROE guidance for the year. But with inflation running a little bit higher, the economy is doing relatively well, do you think there could be some upside to that? Your ROE this quarter was still well above 20%. Do you think that ROE could maybe remain above the 20% maybe a bit longer than expected given the inflation is still a little bit higher in general? And then the second question, in terms of your capital ratio, as you show, you're better capitalized than your peers, you have high ROE, loan growth still in the mid-single digits. Is there room to increase the payout even more? Or what's the right capital ratio? Why do you feel you need to have more capital than your peers?

兩個問題。我看到你們增加了一點今年的淨資產回報率指導。但隨著通膨略高，經濟表現相對較好，您認為這可能會有一些好處嗎？本季的 ROE 仍遠高於 20%。鑑於整體通膨仍然略高，您認為 ROE 可能會比預期保持在 20% 以上的時間更長一些嗎？然後第二個問題，就你的資本比率而言，正如你所表明的，你的資本比你的同行更好，你的股本回報率很高，貸款增長仍然在中等個位數。是否有進一步增加支出的空間？或什麼是合適的資本比率？為什麼你覺得你需要比同儕擁有更多的資本？

So, I think in our baseline scenario for ROE is -- Daniel Galarce touched base a little bit in terms of the main drivers there is what's occurring in terms of our interest earning assets and how this is evolving. So, what we're seeing is a reduction in the second half, or actually beginning now in April in our balance sheet because of a reduction in our liquidity on our balance sheet through the payment of FCIC. So, since this is reducing, we're generating less net interest income. So, the ROE should trend down in the second half of the year because of this reduction. And inflation, actually, it's a little bit up, but it's also a negative impact if we compare year on year. Our estimates for the end of the year is around 3.6%, 3.7% for the variation of the UF, which is negative when considering last year around 4.7%, 4.8%. But we have some positive factors, so we have the reduction of the overnight rate also affects us positively in terms of funding. We're being more proactive in terms of the commercial activities in order to manage the time deposit pricing better as well. And we're seeing improvement in all the families of products in terms of spreads and repricing as older loans are repricing to higher interest rates.

因此，我認為，在我們的淨資產收益率基準情景中，丹尼爾·加拉塞（Daniel Galarce）在主要驅動因素方面做了一些基礎工作，我們的生息資產正在發生什麼以及它是如何演變的。因此，我們看到的是下半年，或者實際上從四月開始，我們的資產負債表出現了減少，因為透過支付 FCIC，我們的資產負債表上的流動性減少了。因此，由於這種情況正在減少，我們產生的淨利息收入也減少了。因此，由於這一下降，下半年 ROE 應該會呈現下降趨勢。通貨膨脹實際上是有點上升，但如果我們與去年同期相比，這也是一個負面影響。我們對年底的 UF 變化估計約為 3.6%、3.7%，考慮到去年的 4.7%、4.8% 左右，這是負數。但我們有一些正面的因素，所以我們隔夜利率的降低也對我們的資金方面產生了正面的影響。我們在商業活動方面更加積極主動，以便更好地管理定期存款定價。我們看到所有產品系列在利差和重新定價方面都有所改善，因為舊貸款正在重新定價以適應更高的利率。

So, there's some negative factors as well. Fees, we don't see fees growing that strongly. It's low single digits. Cost of risk, we expect the economy to be improving, but generally there's a lag between the economy improving and when we see that pass through cost of risk, so around 1.2% is reasonable in terms of our long-term level. And costs, we expect to be around that mid-single-digit range. So, you could argue that maybe with change in inflation or a little bit stronger economy, maybe we can grow stronger. But in our baseline scenario, it's what we mentioned in the call, slightly higher growth than the industry in terms of consumer loans and mortgage loans, and overall loans growing slightly above as well, but less so in larger corporates. In terms of capital, I'll pass the call to Daniel Galarce.

所以，也存在一些負面因素。費用，我們沒有看到費用成長那麼強勁。這是低個位數。風險成本，我們預期經濟將會改善，但一般來說，經濟改善與我們看到風險成本轉嫁之間存在滯後，因此就我們的長期水平而言，1.2%左右是合理的。我們預計成本將在中個位數範圍左右。因此，你可能會說，也許隨著通貨膨脹的變化或經濟的稍微走強，也許我們可以變得更強大。但在我們的基準情境中，正如我們在電話會議中提到的那樣，消費貸款和抵押貸款的成長略高於行業，整體貸款的成長也略高於行業，但大型企業的成長要慢一些。在資金方面，我會將電話轉給 Daniel Galarce。

Yes. In terms of capital, as we have mentioned in the previous calls, we feel comfortable with the positive gap we have today with respect to the regulatory limits. And regarding the payout ratio, notwithstanding this positive gap, we believe that this is a regulatory framework that is still evolving. So, we will have fully-loaded limits and thresholds by 2027, something like that. So, we believe that at this point, we don't want to change dramatically what we have done in the past. So basically, in terms of the payout ratio, we are assuming the normal level of payout that we have paid over the last decade, I would say, and the last 2 years have been a little bit special in that sense. So, we believe that we are going to return to our midterm levels in the short run, probably.

是的。就資本而言，正如我們在先前的電話會議中提到的，我們對目前與監管限額之間的正差距感到滿意。至於派息率，儘管存在這種正差距，但我們認為這是一個仍在不斷發展的監管框架。因此，到 2027 年，我們將擁有滿載的限制和閾值，類似的事情。所以，我們認為，在這一點上，我們不想大幅改變我們過去所做的事情。因此，基本上，就派息率而言，我們假設過去十年我們支付的派息處於正常水平，我想說，從這個意義上說，過去兩年有點特殊。因此，我們相信短期內我們可能會回到中期水準。

Next question comes from Mr. Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的尤里‧費爾南德斯先生。

Congrats on the good quarter. I have a follow up on the FSIC and sorry for coming back to this topic. I know it has been almost 2 years discussing the end of FSIC and we still have questions on this topic. But I was trying to estimate the impact for your ROE of this payment. And with some information you gave us, I guess it may be possible. So, basically you paid CLP 3.1 trillion now on your total CLP 4.5 trillion, CLP 4.6 trillion exposure. And you also mentioned, if I'm not mistaken, during the presentation, that given you should pay the second tranche in July, that this is mostly cash, right? So it should be yielding closer to the benchmark rates around 6.5%. And if you have to pay the 0.5% cost on the FSIC line, we are talking more or less about a 6% spread. When we apply this spread on the balance, the CLP 4.5 trillion, CLP 4.6 trillion, this is about a 4% ROE on an annualized base. But you are not going to have this for entire year, right? You just paid 1 trance now, you pay a second trance in July. So, I'm getting here something a little bit around 2% of ROE headwind going forward, like 2025 versus 2024. I know your guidance for this year already include the FSIC, like maybe moving parts, but I'm trying to get here what would be the normalized ROE for you in 2025 without this [design]. So, just checking if my math like it's a long question. I'm trying just to get your color of how relevant should be the payment of this line for the next year, the adjustment. And then I can ask a second question after this one.

恭喜季度表現良好。我對 FSIC 進行了跟進，很抱歉又回到這個主題。我知道討論 FSIC 的結束已經近兩年了，我們對此主題仍然有疑問。但我試圖估計這筆付款對您的淨值收益率的影響。根據您向我們提供的一些信息，我想這是可能的。所以，基本上你現在為你的 4.5 兆 CLP 和 4.6 兆 CLP 曝險總額支付了 3.1 兆 CLP 。如果我沒記錯的話，您在演示期間還提到，考慮到您應該在 7 月支付第二筆款項，這主要是現金，對吧？因此，它的收益率應該更接近 6.5% 左右的基準利率。如果您必須在 FSIC 行支付 0.5% 的費用，我們或多或少在談論的是 6% 的利差。當我們將這個利差應用到餘額上時，4.5 兆智利比索，4.6 兆智利比索，這相當於年化基礎上 4% 的 ROE。但你不會一整年都這樣，對吧？您現在剛剛支付了 1 次 trance，您將在 7 月支付第二次 trance。所以，我得到的結果是未來 ROE 的逆風約為 2%，例如 2025 年與 2024 年。種[設計]，2025 年您的標準化ROE 會是多少。所以，只是檢查我的數學是否是一個很長的問題。我只是想讓您了解下一年的調整付款與此行的相關性如何。然後我可以問第二個問題。

This is Daniel Galarce again. As we mentioned earlier, of course, the FSIC will have an impact on our P&L. That is pretty clear. But you also have other effects that are upsetting, importantly, this negative effect. As Pablo mentioned earlier, the overnight rate is expected to continue to decrease. The effect of lower revenues from the FSIC will be offset by the lower cost of funds, particularly in terms of our time deposits. So, basically you will finally have a net-net that probably will be a little bit negative. However, that is already incorporated in the guidance we are giving you in our press release for our NIM and also for our ROE. So, in terms of the math that you can do, you're right. However, you have to consider everything together and not only the effect in isolation to the other effect we are going to see in our balance sheet.

我又是丹尼爾·加拉斯。正如我們之前提到的，FSIC 當然會對我們的損益產生影響。這很清楚。但也有其他令人不安的影響，重要的是這種負面影響。正如巴勃羅之前提到的，隔夜利率預計將繼續下降。 FSIC 收入下降的影響將被資金成本下降所抵消，特別是在我們的定期存款方面。所以，基本上你最終會得到一個可能會有點負的淨值。然而，這已經納入我們在 NIM 和 ROE 新聞稿中為您提供的指導中。所以，就你可以做的數學而言，你是對的。然而，你必須綜合考慮所有因素，而不僅僅是孤立地考慮我們將在資產負債表中看到的其他影響。

No, super clear. And ROE, I understand, it is also related to your excess capital, right? This could be higher or lower depending (inaudible) dividends or not. ROE is also management of how much capital is allocated to the business.

不，超清晰。還有ROE，我了解，也跟你的資本過剩有關吧？這可能會更高或更低，這取決於（聽不清楚）股息與否。 ROE 也是對分配給企業的資本數量的管理。

Our forecast for ROE is considering our normal scenario in terms of dividend payout. And our normal scenario in the past has been 60% of our net distributable earnings.

我們對股本回報率的預測考慮了我們在股息支付方面的正常情況。我們過去的正常情況是可分配淨收益的 60%。

No, super clear. If I may, a second question on fees, especially on fee expenses. We had an implementation in Chile of the interchange caps, right? And I was reading some news articles talking about banks potentially cutting loyalty programs, reducing the points of credit cards and things like that. So, if you can share what has Banco de Chile been doing in that regard? If you're also cutting a little bit the expenses to offset the pressure on the revenue side, that would be great. So, what you are doing and how important those measures can be?

不，超清晰。如果可以的話，我想問第二個問題，關於費用，特別是費用支出。我們在智利實施了互換上限，對吧？我正在閱讀一些新聞文章，談論銀行可能會削減忠誠度計劃、減少信用卡積分等。那麼，您能否分享一下智利銀行在這方面做了哪些工作？如果你還削減一點開支來抵銷收入方面的壓力，那就太好了。那麼，您正在做什麼以及這些措施有多重要？

I think, in general, if you look in the past and what the industry has done with changes in regulations and making, for example, the credit card business, you have to think of the credit card business or any part of any product as a whole. So, for example, the credit card business, you have to take into consideration all the revenues it generates and how this is being used. In the past, the clear example of adjusting the loyalty programs is when, for example, the banks would offer up to 24 months no interest minimum payment. And because of changes, reduction in interest rate cap in Chile made the product less profitable, a lot of these programs started to cease to exist. So, most banks only offer 3 months, a couple 6 months, some don't offer anything. And this is what you can expect from this adjustment in the acquiring business, in the interchange business. So, we don't have anything set as of yet, strong adjustments in terms of cost savings for the loyalty program. This is still being analyzed and being analyzed on how we'll be implementing these changes, but it's something that we're taking into consideration, and we'll give an update when we have that implemented.

我認為，總的來說，如果你回顧過去，看看該行業在法規和製定方面所做的改變，例如信用卡業務，你必須將信用卡業務或任何產品的任何部分視為所有的。因此，例如信用卡業務，您必須考慮它產生的所有收入以及如何使用這些收入。過去，調整忠誠度計畫的明顯例子是銀行提供長達 24 個月的無息最低還款額。由於變化，智利利率上限的降低使得該產品的利潤減少，許多此類計劃開始不復存在。因此，大多數銀行只提供 3 個月的期限，少數銀行提供 6 個月的期限，有些則不提供任何服務。這就是您可以從收單業務、交換業務的調整中預期的結果。因此，我們目前還沒有在忠誠度計畫的成本節約方面做出任何強而有力的調整。我們仍在分析這一點，並分析我們將如何實施這些更改，但這是我們正在考慮的事情，我們將在實施後提供更新。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Ms. Neha Agarwala from HSBC Global Research.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行全球研究部的 Neha Agarwala 女士。

Congratulations on the results. Just a quick one in terms of your digital initiative. All the banks are trying to put out their digital initiatives and offering more and more features on their app. Where do you think Banco de Chile stands versus peers? What are the strengths versus your competition? What are you doing better and where do you think are the gaps in terms of your digital offerings, which you would like to implement in the coming months?

祝賀結果。只是簡單介紹一下您的數位計劃。所有銀行都在嘗試推出他們的數位計劃，並在他們的應用程式上提供越來越多的功能。您認為智利銀行與同業相比處於什麼位置？與競爭對手相比，您的優勢是什麼？您在哪些方面做得更好？

Neha, I think the banking industry in Chile has a strong digital presence and has strong digital products. It's not a nice-to-have, it's something that you must have, and it's a continuing evolution of advances in these products. We are of the large banks, one of the later banks to come out with our digital product, which was the Cuenta FAN. We've come up with a couple of new initiatives for digital products, the current account, FAN for teenagers, FAN for SMEs. So, we've been very proactive in terms of growing this digital base. In terms of comparisons with other banks, I think today it's not a nice-to-have. You have to be very proactive and have a very good quality product that provides the customers with services and products that they want through the channels that they demand, and today that's the digital product. So, I would say the large banks are very competitive in their products. We have a high-quality product. This will continue to evolve as things change, but I think we're doing a very good job today, and I can't pinpoint 1 area that needs strong improvement or anything like that. I think we can always continue to adjust and provide a better product, but today we have a very high-quality product. And the Cuenta FAN, for example, has a better Net Promoter Score than the overall of the bank. So, the bank has a very high Net Promoter Score of over 75%. Cuenta FAN has even higher number. So, we're very happy with the levels of digitalization that we have today.

Neha，我認為智利的銀行業擁有強大的數位化實力並擁有強大的數位產品。它不是錦上添花，而是您必須擁有的東西，並且是這些產品進步的持續發展。我們是大型銀行之一，也是較晚推出數位產品（Cuenta FAN）的銀行之一。我們針對數位產品、經常帳、青少年 FAN、中小企業 FAN 提出了一些新措施。因此，我們在發展這個數位基礎方面一直非常積極。與其他銀行相比，我認為今天它不是一個可有可無的銀行。你必須非常積極主動，擁有非常優質的產品，透過客戶所需的管道為客戶提供他們想要的服務和產品，今天這就是數位產品。所以，我想說大型銀行的產品非常有競爭力。我們有高品質的產品。隨著情況的變化，這種情況將繼續發展，但我認為我們今天做得非常好，我無法指出需要大力改進的領域或類似的領域。我認為我們總是可以繼續調整並提供更好的產品，但今天我們擁有非常高品質的產品。例如，Cuenta FAN 的淨推薦值高於銀行整體。因此，該銀行的淨推薦值非常高，超過 75%。 Cuenta FAN 的數量甚至更高。因此，我們對今天的數位化水準非常滿意。

Our final question comes from Mr. Andres Soto from Santander.

我們的最後一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的安德烈斯·索托先生。

This is related to asset quality in your mortgage portfolio. You mentioned you provide a very interesting breakdown in your provisions, what pertains to mortgages. And doing simple math, we can see that the cost of risk of the mortgage portfolio, it is now at 1.2%. It used to be 0.7% just 1 year ago. So, that's just a rapid deterioration. Do you see room for additional deterioration in this segment? And what is really needed for this to start to improve? And when are you expecting this improvement to happen?

這與您的抵押貸款組合中的資產品質有關。您提到您提供了與抵押貸款有關的規定的非常有趣的細目。透過簡單的計算，我們可以看到抵押貸款組合的風險成本現在為 1.2%。僅僅一年前，這個數字還只有0.7%。所以，這只是快速惡化。您認為該細分市場還有進一步惡化的空間嗎？真正需要什麼才能開始改善？您預計什麼時候會出現這種改善？

In terms of NPLs and cost of risk, what we can see is that what's important to mention is that we're coming out of a negative cycle. We see some improvements, but generally there's a lag between the improvements and what we see in the loan book in terms of demand and also in terms of credit quality. So, as you mentioned, there has been, and it's something that we've seen in other banks as well, a rise in NPLs in different segments. And why has this happened? This has happened because households have less disposable income because of the rise of cost of living, because of weaker employment opportunities. We think that this is something that should trend down as long as the economy improves. It has a high coverage ratio, these mortgage loans. So, we don't see an issue there, but it is a little bit more difficult situation for individuals today in Chile because of the high inflation that we've had over the past few years and the weak economic scenario.

就不良貸款和風險成本而言，我們可以看到，值得一提的是，我們正在走出負循環。我們看到了一些改進，但總的來說，在需求和信貸品質方面，這些改進與我們在貸款簿中看到的情況之間存在滯後。因此，正如您所提到的，我們在其他銀行也看到了不同領域不良貸款的增加。為什麼會發生這種情況？之所以會發生這種情況，是因為生活成本上升、就業機會減少，導致家庭可支配所得減少。我們認為，只要經濟好轉，這種趨勢就會下降。這些抵押貸款的覆蓋率很高。因此，我們認為那裡沒有問題，但由於過去幾年的高通膨和疲軟的經濟形勢，對於智利的個人來說，現在的情況有點困難。

Andres, this is Rodrigo Aravena. I'd like to highlight that today for the first time in several quarters, today, we are raising our GDP forecast for the future. So, basically, we are aware about improvement of expected macroeconomic conditions for the future. But still the economy is facing some challenges, some pressures. For example, it's very important to keep in mind that the interest rate today at 6.5% remains in more negative territory, more contractionary for the economy, the same for inflation. Today we have an inflation rate which is close to 4%, which is still above the more normalized level for Chile, which is around 3%. So, my point here is that we're expecting for the future improvement in terms of economic conditions, especially those that are relevant for disposable income for the people. But the economy today is still under some pressures. There are some uncertainties for this year. For example, on the political side, there's going to be important elections to monitor by October this year, the municipal election, some reforms are discussed today as well. So, that's why, given that in our baseline scenario, the economic conditions will be better in the future. That's why we're expecting normalization and an improvement in terms of asset quality indicators, NPLs, et cetera. But in an environment where today the economy is under pressure with below trend growth, with still higher unemployment rate. So, it's important to analyze how fast the economy will convert to the more normalized conditions.

安德烈斯，這是羅德里戈·阿拉維納。我想強調的是，今天，我們幾個季度以來首次上調了對未來的 GDP 預測。因此，基本上，我們意識到未來預期宏觀經濟狀況的改善。但經濟仍面臨一些挑戰、一些壓力。例如，重要的是要記住，目前 6.5% 的利率仍處於更負的區域，對經濟來說更加緊縮，對通貨膨脹也是如此。今天我們的通貨膨脹率接近 4%，仍然高於智利 3% 左右的更正常。因此，我的觀點是，我們預期未來經濟狀況會有所改善，特別是與人民可支配所得相關的經濟狀況。但當前經濟仍面臨一定壓力。今年存在一些不確定因素。例如，在政治方面，今年10月將有重要的選舉需要監督，市政選舉，今天也會討論一些改革。因此，這就是為什麼，考慮到在我們的基準情境下，未來的經濟狀況會更好。這就是為什麼我們期待資產品質指標、不良貸款等方面的正常化和改善。但當今經濟面臨成長低於趨勢水準的壓力，失業率仍較高。因此，分析經濟將多快轉變為更正常化的狀況非常重要。

Rodrigo, do you have any timeline -- do you expect this deterioration to get worse before it gets better? And when will you be forecasting a turning point for NPLs in Chile?

羅德里戈，你有什麼時間表嗎？您預測智利不良貸款何時會出現轉捩點？

It's reasonable to expect second half with better figures compared to the first half. But again, it's very important to analyze the evolution, for example, the monetary policy and also investment, because there's going to be important events to monitor in Chile. But in our baseline scenario, when we consider that in the second half the interest rate will be lower, the inflation rate will be lower as well with a better economic growth, all these conditions are consistent with better asset quality in that time. So, that's why, given the current information, I would say that it's reasonable to expect improvement since the second half of this year. Probably today we are in the turning point, an inflection point in terms of NPLs and asset quality indicators during this first half of the year.

與上半年相比，預計下半年的數據會更好，這是合理的。但同樣，分析貨幣政策和投資等演變非常重要，因為智利將發生重要事件需要監控。但在我們的基準情境中，當我們認為下半年利率會更低，通膨率也會更低，經濟成長也會更好時，所有這些條件都與當時更好的資產品質是一致的。因此，鑑於目前的信息，我認為自今年下半年以來有所改善是合理的。也許今天我們正處於一個轉捩點，是今年上半年不良貸款和資產品質指標的轉捩點。

Congratulations on the results.

祝賀結果。

Thank you very much. It looks like we have no further questions. I'll pass the line back to the team for the concluding remarks.

非常感謝。看來我們沒有其他問題了。我會將這條線傳回給團隊進行總結發言。

Thank you for listening, and we hope to have you with us for our next conference call results.

感謝您的聆聽，我們希望您能與我們一起了解我們的下一次電話會議結果。

Thank you very much. This concludes today's conference call. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you and goodbye.

非常感謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們現在將關閉所有線路。謝謝，再見。