Banco de Chile (BCH) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Banco de Chile's Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. If you need a copy of the management's financial review, it is available on the company's website. With us today, we have: Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer; Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations; and Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control & Capital.

大家下午好，歡迎參加智利銀行 2023 年第三季業績電話會議。如果您需要管理層財務審查的副本，可以在公司網站上找到。今天與我們在一起的有： 首席經濟學家兼機構關係官 Rodrigo Aravena 先生； Pablo Mejia 先生，投資者關係主管；以及財務控制與資本主管 Daniel Galarce。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and that the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties. And actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議正在錄音，今天討論的資訊可能包括有關公司財務和經營業績的前瞻性陳述。所有預測都存在風險和不確定性。實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱本公司新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的詳細說明。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給羅德里戈·阿拉維納先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for joining this conference call. We are pleased to present the performance of our bank during the third quarter, a period where, once again, Banco de Chile demonstrated its unquestionable leadership.

大家下午好。非常感謝您參加本次電話會議。我們很高興地介紹我們銀行第三季的業績，在此期間，智利銀行再次展現了其無可置疑的領導地位。

Some achievements include a solid net income of CLP 260 billion in the quarter, equivalent to an ROE of 21%, remaining the most profitable bank among peers. We also led the industry regarding capital, asset quality and margins and achieved significant accomplishments in other nonfinancial areas. I want to remind you that further details are shown in the management discussion report released this week and available on the bank's web page.

一些成就包括本季淨利潤達 2,600 億智利比索，相當於 21% 的股本回報率，仍然是同業中盈利能力最強的銀行。我們在資本、資產品質和利潤率方面也處於行業領先地位，並在其他非金融領域取得了重大成就。我想提醒您，更多詳細資訊請參閱本週發布的管理層討論報告，並可在該銀行的網頁上查看。

Before moving to our presentation, we are very proud to mention that recently, Banco de Chile completed 130 years of history, offering comprehensive solutions for our customers and promoting the developments of the country and the people. I'd like to begin with an overview of the competitive environment and our forecast for this in the following year.

在開始我們的演講之前，我們非常自豪地提到，最近，智利銀行已經走過了130年的歷程，為我們的客戶提供全面的解決方案，促進國家和人民的發展。我想先概述一下競爭環境以及我們對明年的預測。

Please go to Slide #3. Chile is a small and open economy, highly integrated into the rest of the world, which is why it's critical to monitor the evolution of global drivers that could potentially affect our economy. As the upper left chart shows, we've seen lower dynamism in the global economy, which has been reflected in the downward adjustments in global GDP forecast. As the IMF mentioned in its WEO report, this negative trend is attributable to the weaker-than-expected growth in China, which represents nearly 40% of Chilean exports.

請轉到投影片 #3。智利是一個小型開放經濟體，與世界其他地區高度融合，因此監測可能影響我國經濟的全球驅動因素的演變至關重要。如左上圖所示，我們看到全球經濟活力下降，這反映在全球GDP預測的下調。正如國際貨幣基金組織在《世界經濟展望》報告中所提到的，這種負面趨勢歸因於中國的成長弱於預期，而中國佔智利出口的近40%。

In addition to this, as the chart on the upper right displays, there's been further slowdown in most countries during this year. These trends have affected Chilean economic activity, which has declined annually since second half of the last year, as seen in the chart on the bottom left. This negative trend is explained by several factors, including the partial normalization of the extra liquidity seen last year, the lagged effect of the 1,075 basis point interest rate hikes between 2021 and 2022 and the subdued growth in sovereign partners, as I already mentioned.

除此之外，如右上方的圖表所示，今年大多數國家的經濟進一步放緩。這些趨勢影響了智利的經濟活動，自去年下半年以來，智利的經濟活動逐年下降，如左下圖所示。正如我已經提到的，這種負面趨勢可以由多種因素解釋，包括去年出現的額外流動性部分正常化、2021 年至 2022 年加息 1,075 個基點的滯後效應以及主權合作夥伴增長疲軟。

This recession, however, has contributed to reducing the macroeconomic imbalances that Chile had during the pandemic. One of them is improvement in the current account deficit from 9% in 2022 to 4.2% last 12 months in the second quarter this year due to the trade balance surplus compared to the last year. The adjustment in the local spending has also influenced on the lower inflation and interest rates as we will see in the next slide, #4.

然而，這次衰退有助於減少智利在疫情期間的宏觀經濟失衡。其中之一是，由於貿易平衡順差，今年第二季經常帳赤字從2022年的9%改善至過去12個月的4.2%。當地支出的調整也影響了較低的通貨膨脹和利率，正如我們將在下一張投影片第 4 中看到的那樣。

The annual inflation fell to 5.1% in September from the peak of 14.1% in 2022, posting the lowest figure in over 2 years. The core CPI, which is a measure that excludes food and energy prices, went down to 5.2%, also the lowest since mid-2021. In the same line, the unemployment rate has slightly been increasing, as seen in the chart on the upper right, reflecting the existence of spare capacity in the economy.

年通膨率從2022年的高峰14.1%降至9月份的5.1%，創下兩年多來的最低水準。不包括食品和能源價格的核心CPI下降至5.2%，也是2021年中期以來的最低水準。同時，如右上圖所示，失業率略有上升，反映出經濟體中存在閒置產能。

In this environment, the Central Bank reduced the interest rate by 225 basis points in the meetings held in July, September and October and has signaled further cuts in the near term. It's important to note that in October, the Central Bank dropped the interest rate by 50 basis points when the market was expecting a 75 basis point cut.

在此環境下，央行在7月、9月和10月的會議上降息225個基點，並暗示近期將進一步降息。值得注意的是，10月央行降息50個基點，而市場預期降息75個基點。

In addition, the Central Bank put an end on the FX reserve accumulation program and the gradual reduction of its forward position. This led to a strong drop in the value of the CLP against the dollar. Nevertheless, the Chilean peso continues weak, driven by lower local rates and a stronger global dollar as seen in the chart on the bottom right.

此外，央行結束了外匯存底累積計畫並逐步減少遠期部位。這導致智利比索兌美元匯率大幅下跌。儘管如此，在當地利率下降和全球美元走強的推動下，智利比索仍持續疲軟，如下圖右下圖所示。

I'd like to move to our baseline scenario for this and the next year. Please go to the next slide. Despite the expected positive growth in the fourth quarter, the 2023 GDP will likely fall by nearly 0.2%. For 2024, we expect a recovery towards 1.7%, driven by the positive effect of the lower inflation and a more expansionary monetary policy. However, the deterioration in global conditions will partially offset the impact of these factors.

我想轉向今年和明年的基準情境。請轉到下一張投影片。儘管預計第四季將出現正成長，但 2023 年 GDP 可能會下降近 0.2%。 2024 年，我們預期在較低通膨和更擴張性貨幣政策的正面影響下，經濟將復甦至 1.7%。然而，全球情勢的惡化將部分抵消這些因素的影響。

On prices, the CPI should continue falling from 12.8% last year to 4.2% in 2023 to 3% in 2024. Based on this trend, we see room for further rate cuts. The chart on the right shows our quarterly rate in CPI expectation for the following periods. The evolution of these macro drivers has impacted the bank's bottom line, as we will see in the next slide.

在價格方面，CPI 應該會繼續從去年的 12.8% 下降到 2023 年的 4.2%，再到 2024 年的 3%。基於這一趨勢，我們認為還有進一步降息的空間。右圖顯示了我們對以下期間 CPI 預期的季度率。正如我們將在下一張投影片中看到的那樣，這些宏觀驅動因素的演變影響了銀行的利潤。

The banking industry posted a net income of CLP 949 million, 29% lower than the same period last year, reducing ROE to 12.7% from 20.6% in the third quarter 2022. This is attributable to a combination of factors, such as a significant decrease in inflation, leading to a 57.8% reduction in net interest income for the industry. Additionally, a 10.2% increase in the cost of risk resulted from the normalization of asset quality, as shown on the chart on the bottom left, and a 5.1% rise in operating expenses, slightly surpassing the inflation rate.

銀行業淨利為 9.49 億智利比索，比去年同期下降 29%，ROE 從 2022 年第三季的 20.6% 降至 12.7%。這是由於多種因素綜合作用的，例如通貨膨脹，導致該行業淨利息收入減少57.8%。此外，資產品質正常化導致風險成本上升10.2%（如左下圖），營運費用上升5.1%，略高於通膨率。

The ongoing impact of [a sliding] economic environment is clearly reflected in the chart on the right. Total loan growth decelerated to 2.8% in the current quarter, mainly due to subdued demand for commercial loans and to a lesser degree, to consumer loans. Mortgage loans continued leading loan expansion. Despite these factors, Banco de Chile has been able to post solid figures, surpassing the rest of the industry.

右圖清楚地反映了[滑動]經濟環境的持續影響。本季總貸款成長放緩至 2.8%，主要是由於商業貸款需求疲軟，其次是消費貸款需求疲軟。抵押貸款繼續引領貸款擴張。儘管有這些因素，智利銀行仍能發布可靠的數據，超越業內其他銀行。

Now Pablo Mejia will present the main achievements of our bank during the period.

以下由Pablo Mejia介紹我行這段時期的主要成就。

Thank you, Rodrigo. I would like to begin with advances in our main strategic focus. Please go to Slide #8.

謝謝你，羅德里戈。我想先談談我們主要戰略重點的進展。請轉到幻燈片#8。

Our impressive track record is a result of our consistent long-term strategy that places customers, efficiency and sustainability at the center of everything we do. We've put these pillars into action through six key goals, and we've surpassed all of our mid-term targets, as you can see on the right of this slide. In the upcoming sections, we'll take a closer look at how we've been thriving in digital transformation, productivity and sustainability and how this has translated into posting remarkable financial results.

我們令人印象深刻的業績記錄是我們一貫的長期策略的結果，該策略將客戶、效率和永續發展置於我們所做一切的中心。我們已經透過六個關鍵目標將這些支柱付諸行動，並且我們已經超越了所有中期目標，正如您在這張投影片右側看到的那樣。在接下來的部分中，我們將仔細研究我們如何在數位轉型、生產力和永續發展方面蓬勃發展，以及如何轉化為公佈卓越的財務表現。

Let me start with digital banking. Please move to Slide #9. In terms of digital banking, our initiatives are focused on offering customers an innovative value proposition, simple and tailored to their needs and providing the best experience. To achieve this, we've developed a comprehensive digital ecosystem that includes virtual accounts for diverse segments such as individuals over 18 years old, SMEs and teenagers.

讓我從數位銀行開始。請移至投影片 #9。在數位銀行方面，我們的舉措專注於為客戶提供創新的價值主張，簡單且根據他們的需求量身定制，並提供最佳體驗。為了實現這一目標，我們開發了一個全面的數位生態系統，其中包括針對 18 歲以上個人、中小企業和青少年等不同群體的虛擬帳戶。

This initiative has resulted in over 1.3 million digital accounts and registered solid growth quarter-on-quarter as detailed in this slide. One noteworthy advance we have recently undertaken integration of contactless mobile payment functionality through Apple Pay Wallet.

這項措施已產生了超過 130 萬個數位帳戶，並實現了季度穩健增長，如本幻燈片所示。我們最近透過 Apple Pay 錢包整合了非接觸式行動支付功能，這是一項值得注意的進步。

On the productivity and efficiency front, our efforts are centered on building an agile and modern bank through innovative, effective, automated and secure digital front-to-back processes. This quarter, we have made significant progress in this area, including the enhancement of CapEx budgeting and planning process to ensure a precise alignment of organizational resources with the strategic objectives while optimizing the returns from all our investment projects.

在生產力和效率方面，我們的工作重點是透過創新、有效、自動化和安全的數位化前後流程來建立敏捷的現代化銀行。本季度，我們在這一領域取得了重大進展，包括加強資本支出預算和規劃流程，以確保組織資源與策略目標的精確結合，同時優化所有投資項目的回報。

Concurrently, we also implemented new tools to reduce customer service delivery times. And to further maximize returns, we implemented a new deposit pricing strategy that resulted in improved margins. In summary, we are continuously seeking new ways to improve revenues and optimize costs. We are confident in our ability to maintain our leadership position within the industry.

同時，我們也實施了新工具來縮短客戶服務交付時間。為了進一步最大化回報，我們實施了新的存款定價策略，從而提高了利潤率。總之，我們不斷尋求新的方法來提高收入和優化成本。我們對保持行業領先地位的能力充滿信心。

Finally, as part of our commitment to the development of the country and its people, we continue strengthening our ESG initiatives to create long-term value for our stakeholders. We are proud that our efforts have been recognized by different institutions, including our first place ranking in the National Customer Satisfaction Award.

最後，作為我們對國家及其人民發展承諾的一部分，我們繼續加強 ESG 舉措，為利害關係人創造長期價值。我們很自豪我們的努力得到了不同機構的認可，包括我們在全國客戶滿意獎中排名第一。

Additionally, we've been honored as a leading bank in attracting and retaining talent according to Merco Talento. Among many actions towards sustainability that we have implemented during the quarter, we can highlight that we launched new national entrepreneurship contests and continued volunteering initiatives aimed at reforestation, education and financial literacy.

此外，根據 Merco Talento 的評價，我們被評為在吸引和留住人才方面領先的銀行。在我們本季實施的許多永續發展行動中，我們可以強調的是，我們發起了新的全國創業競賽，並持續開展旨在重新造林、教育和金融知識的志願活動。

Furthermore, we're glad to announce our sustainability and procurement teams are working together in a project that will promote lower carbon emissions and energy savings and will mark an important step in our journey to contribute to society and the environment. All of these actions have taken place in a setting where we remain as the strongest bank in ESG according to Sustainalytics.

此外，我們很高興地宣布，我們的永續發展和採購團隊正在一個專案中合作，該專案將促進低碳排放和節能，並將標誌著我們在為社會和環境做出貢獻的旅程中邁出的重要一步。根據 Sustainalytics 的數據，所有這些行動都是在我們仍然是 ESG 方面最強銀行的背景下進行的。

Please turn to Slide 11 to begin our discussion on our results. We achieved another quarter of strong earnings with a notable ROE of 21%. Our net income of CLP 260 billion was significantly above all of our peers, as shown on the chart in the middle of this slide.

請翻到投影片 11 開始我們對結果的討論。我們又實現了一個季度的強勁盈利，淨資產收益率達到 21%。正如這張投影片中間的圖表所示，我們的淨利潤為 2600 億智利比索，遠高於所有同行。

These accomplishments are a testament to our dedicated team and a superior long-term strategy that emphasizes sustainable growth with a balanced consideration of risk and return as exemplified by our leading positions in capital adequacy and delinquencies. This has firmly established Banco de Chile as the most profitable and sustainable bank in Chile.

這些成就證明了我們的敬業團隊和卓越的長期策略，該策略強調可持續成長，平衡考慮風險和回報，我們在資本充足率和拖欠率方面的領先地位就是例證。這牢牢確立了智利銀行作為智利獲利能力最強、可持續發展的銀行的地位。

Please turn to Slide 12. Despite the weak economic and business environment, our core customer income has continued to steadily recover by growing 8% year-on-year, supporting operating revenues, as you can see on the chart on the bottom left. This growth in core revenues has partially offset the lower revenues from noncustomer income that fell 50% year-on-year, primarily due to the normalization of several market factors, especially the sharp decrease in inflation.

請參閱投影片 12。儘管經濟和商業環境疲軟，我們的核心客戶收入仍持續穩定復甦，年增 8%，支撐了營業收入，如左下圖所示。核心收入的成長部分抵消了非客戶收入年減 50% 的下降，這主要是由於幾個市場因素的正常化，特別是通貨膨脹的急劇下降。

Customer interest income from loans, demand deposits and time deposits rose by 13.4% year-on-year. This was due to an improvement in loan mix. And further enhanced loans with lower lending spreads from the pandemic have been amortized. In fact, loan spread originations have been rising across the majority of product families. These results translated into a robust net interest margin of 4.2% despite the huge drop in inflation during the period.

貸款、活期存款、定期存款客戶利息收入年增13.4%。這是由於貸款組合的改善。因疫情而進一步增加的貸款和較低的貸款利差已被攤提。事實上，大多數產品系列的貸款利差一直在上升。儘管在此期間通膨大幅下降，但這些結果轉化為 4.2% 的強勁淨利差。

Another relevant component of customer income is net fees, which decreased by 3.9% year-on-year. However, it's important to consider that this was attributable to two temporary factors: first, the reclassification of income from collection services for overdue loans, which is currently recognized in other income; and in addition, the impact of foreign exchange rates on our loyalty program provisions.

客戶收入的另一個相關組成部分是淨費用，年減3.9%。然而，重要的是要考慮到這歸因於兩個臨時因素：首先，逾期貸款催收服務收入重新分類，目前已在其他收入中確認；此外，外匯匯率對我們的忠誠度計畫條款的影響。

Nevertheless, the latter effect is hedged through trading positions that are booked as net financial income. Excluding these factors, core fees continued to grow well at 6.4% year-on-year. This was driven by retail fees, including insurance premiums, which grew 20% year-on-year; checking accounts and overdrafts, up 13% in the same period; and site accounts and ATM fees rising 8% year-on-year.

然而，後一種影響是透過記為淨財務收入的交易頭寸來對沖的。排除這些因素，核心費用持續保持良好成長，較去年同期成長6.4%。這是由零售費用推動的，其中包括保險費，年增 20%；支票帳戶及透支，同期成長13%；網站帳戶和ATM手續費較去年同期上漲8%。

In the third quarter, noncustomer income decreased 50% year-on-year, as I mentioned earlier. This was primarily due to the strong reduction in inflation. Specifically, the U.S. variation dropped from 3.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to only 0.3% in the third quarter of 2023, or from 14% to 1.2% if we annualize these numbers.

正如我前面提到的，第三季非客戶營收年減了50%。這主要是由於通貨膨脹的強勁下降。具體而言，美國的差異從 2022 年第三季的 3.5% 降至 2023 年第三季的僅 0.3%，如果我們對這些數字進行年化處理，則從 14% 降至 1.2%。

As a reminder, a change of 100 basis points in inflation is roughly CLP 80 billion in operating income. In fact, when considering our structural U.S. GAAP and directional positions taken by our treasury on U.S.-denominated securities, the change in inflation resulted in lower income by approximately CLP 250 billion year-on-year.

提醒一下，通膨變化 100 個基點大約會帶來 800 億智利比索的營業收入。事實上，考慮到我們的結構性美國公認會計準則和財政部對以美元計價的證券所採取的方向性頭寸，通貨膨脹的變化導致收入同比減少約2500億智利比索。

This amount was partially offset by other than inflation income from both ALM and their investment in trading portfolios that surged by approximately CLP 10 billion on an annual basis as a consequence of both the positive impact of higher-than-normal nominal short-term interest rates on short-term assets and the comparison-based effect related to the sale of AFS securities in the third quarter that accumulated fair value losses by CLP 58 billion.

這筆金額被 ALM 及其交易投資組合的通膨收入以外的收入部分抵消，由於名義短期利率高於正常水平的積極影響，這些收入每年激增約 100 億智利比索短期資產以及與第三季度出售可轉讓證券相關的比較效應導致累計公允價值損失580 億中幣。

Please look at the charts on the right as they demonstrate how our performance is compared to our peers. This quarter, our NIM reached 4.2%, significantly higher than our closest competitors. We also outpaced our peers in fees as well as operating margin.

請查看右側的圖表，它們展示了我們與同行的績效比較。本季度，我們的淨利差達到 4.2%，明顯高於最接近的競爭對手。我們在費用和營業利潤方面也超越了同行。

This exceptional performance is due to our superior business strategy, together with prudent risk management practices, all underpinned by robust corporate governance standards. This prudent approach has allowed us to benefit from the changes in market factors better than our peers on the grounds of structural positions that are a consequence of a consistent business model focused on commercial banking.

這項卓越的業績得益於我們卓越的業務策略以及審慎的風險管理實踐，所有這些都以穩健的公司治理標準為基礎。這種審慎的做法使我們能夠比同業更好地從市場因素的變化中受益，因為我們的結構性地位是專注於商業銀行業務的一致業務模式的結果。

Please turn to Slide 13. We offer financial solutions to clients across all segments in the retail and commercial banking. As illustrated in the chart, 64% of our loans are focused on the retail segment while the remaining 36% serve the wholesale sector. In wholesale, we have a diverse portfolio, as you can see in the chart on the bottom left. This diversity in our total loan book allows us to continue growing even when there are varying economic cycles or challenges affecting different segments, aiming to mitigate, reduce demand or credit risk.

請參閱投影片 13。我們為零售和商業銀行各領域的客戶提供金融解決方案。如圖所示，我們 64% 的貸款集中在零售領域，其餘 36% 服務於批發領域。在批發方面，我們擁有多樣化的產品組合，如左下角圖表所示。我們貸款總額的這種多樣性使我們能夠在不同的經濟週期或影響不同領域的挑戰的情況下繼續成長，旨在減輕、降低需求或信用風險。

During the pandemic, our growth was centered on low-risk and low-margin products. This resulted in a significant transformation in the structure of both our loan portfolio and our balance sheet. However, this has begun to change. And as I mentioned, our spreads are already improving. We anticipate that in the coming periods, we will gradually bring the loan portfolio back to the mix that we had prior to the pandemic.

疫情期間，我們的成長集中在低風險、低利潤的產品。這導致我們的貸款組合和資產負債表結構發生重大轉變。然而，這種情況已經開始改變。正如我所提到的，我們的利差已經在改善。我們預計，在未來一段時間內，我們將逐步將貸款組合恢復到疫情大流行之前的水平。

As you can see in the chart to the right, total loans are growing 1.9% year-on-year. Loans to individuals is driving growth and consumer loans are rising at 9%, followed by mortgage loans, which are expanding at 7.6%. In the case of consumer loans, growth was primarily fueled by credit cards, followed by installment loans. This has been driven by greater use of electronic payments and legacy of the pandemic and on an improved segmentation of customers that has been supported by business intelligence tools while enabling us to maintain credit risk at low levels.

如右圖所示，貸款總額較去年同期成長 1.9%。個人貸款正在推動成長，消費貸款成長 9%，其次是抵押貸款，成長 7.6%。就消費貸款而言，成長主要由信用卡推動，其次是分期貸款。這是由於電子支付的更多使用和大流行的遺留問題以及商業智慧工具支援下的客戶細分的改善，同時使我們能夠將信用風險保持在較低水平。

In turn, mortgage loans expanded by 7.6% during the 12-month period. Despite this figure is still below pre-pandemic levels, loan growth has been driven by both inflation and proactive commercial campaigns focused on specific customer segments that has permitted us to gradually recover market share in the strategic product that allows us to achieve long-term relationships with clients.

反過來，抵押貸款在 12 個月期間增加了 7.6%。儘管這一數字仍低於疫情前的水平，但貸款成長是由通貨膨脹和專注於特定客戶群的積極商業活動所推動的，這使我們能夠逐步恢復戰略產品的市場份額，從而使我們能夠建立長期合作關係與客戶。

In this regard, it's worth mentioning that origination of residential mortgage loans has significantly increased from last year as depicted by a 73% annual growth of September 2023 when compared to the same period last year, which demonstrates the effectiveness of our campaigns and competitive funding costs.

在這方面，值得一提的是，住宅抵押貸款的發放量較去年大幅增加，截至 2023 年 9 月的年增長率為 73%，這表明我們活動的有效性和具有競爭力的融資成本。

Commercial loans, on the other hand, decreased 3% year-on-year. High interest rates, together with a weak economy and high uncertainty is taking a toll on this segment. In the case of SMEs, higher debt levels from the quick penetration of these customers in the pandemic has further reduced the possibility of recording stronger expansion levels.

另一方面，商業貸款較去年同期下降3%。高利率、經濟疲軟和高度不確定性正在對該領域造成影響。就中小企業而言，疫情期間這些客戶的快速滲透導致債務水準上升，進一步降低了實現更強勁擴張水準的可能性。

Currently, originations are only offsetting amortization of these loans. But on a positive note, loan origination is contributing with higher lending spreads than the stock that is being amortized. Thus, we are seeing a gradual normalization in spreads that should continue in the coming quarters. Also, we're confident that as long as some source of uncertainties begin to fade, total commercial loans will continue to return to a positive growth level.

目前，發放僅抵銷這些貸款的攤銷。但從正面的角度來看，貸款發放帶來的貸款利差高於攤銷的股票。因此，我們看到利差逐漸正常化，這種情況應該會在未來幾季持續下去。此外，我們相信，只要一些不確定因素開始消退，商業貸款總額將繼續恢復正成長水準。

Please turn to Slide 14 to discuss our strong balance sheet structure. Our asset and liability structure exhibits robust diversification as illustrated in the upper left chart. Our core focus remains on commercial banking, where loans constitute the primary revenue driver, representing 67% of our total assets as of September 2023.

請參閱投影片 14 來討論我們強大的資產負債表結構。如左上圖所示，我們的資產和負債結構呈現出強勁的多元化。我們的核心重點仍然是商業銀行業務，其中貸款構成主要收入驅動力，截至 2023 年 9 月占我們總資產的 67%。

It's also noteworthy that before the pandemic, total loans typically accounted for a range closer to 80% of our total assets. The most likely scenario is that we should return to these figures once the FCIC funding is totally paid off by mid-2024 as our extra liquidity will quickly decrease from the extremely high levels we currently have, as shown on the chart to the right. Nevertheless, we will continue to have much higher liquidity ratios than the established limits.

另外值得注意的是，在疫情爆發之前，貸款總額通常占我們總資產的80%左右。最有可能的情況是，一旦 FCIC 的資金到 2024 年中期全部還清，我們就應該回到這些數字，因為我們的額外流動性將從目前的極高水平迅速減少，如右圖所示。儘管如此，我們的流動性比率將繼續遠高於既定限制。

Additionally, we have managed our balance sheet positions appropriately for the economic cycle. This has provided stability in our results with the lower sensitivity to changes in market interest rates. We've also managed our U.S. position appropriately to optimize margins, as you can see in the chart on the bottom right.

此外，我們根據經濟週期適當管理了我們的資產負債表頭寸。這使我們的業績保持穩定，對市場利率變化的敏感度較低。我們還適當地管理了我們在美國的頭寸，以優化利潤率，正如您在右下角的圖表中看到的那樣。

Please turn to Slide 15. Banco de Chile is by far the most capitalized bank amongst peers. We have a total capital ratio of 17.7%, well above all of our peers and fully loaded Basel III requirement. CET1 stands at an impressive 13.5%. That allows us to easily comply with the requirements of this new regulation.

請參閱投影片 15。智利銀行是迄今為止同業中資本最多的銀行。我們的總資本比率為 17.7%，遠高於所有同業並滿足巴塞爾協議 III 的要求。 CET1 達到令人印象深刻的 13.5%。這使我們能夠輕鬆遵守這項新法規的要求。

The phase-in period is shown on the table to the right. Recently, the regulator defined a countercyclical buffer of 0.5% and is in the process of determining the need to establish Pillar 2 capital charges, if any, depending on each bank's capital position and risk management framework.

分階段實施期如右表所示。最近，監管機構定義了 0.5% 的反週期緩衝，並且正在根據每家銀行的資本狀況和風險管理框架確定是否需要建立第二支柱資本要求（如果有）。

Our long-term strategy and prudent approach to managing market risk and credit risk has played a pivotal role in progressing through this economic cycle, setting us apart from other banks in both revenue generation and the quality of our balance sheet in terms of market and credit risk.

我們管理市場風險和信用風險的長期策略和審慎方法在本次經濟週期中發揮了關鍵作用，使我們在收入創造以及市場和信用方面的資產負債表品質方面與其他銀行區分開來風險。

Please turn to Slide 16. Expected credit losses remained low by posting only CLP 60 billion this quarter, representing a 43% reduction compared to the same period last year. The decline is mainly due to the CLP 35 billion of additional provisions established in the third quarter of 2022 compared to this quarter, where we did not set any additional provisions.

請參閱投影片 16。本季預期信貸損失僅 600 億智利比索，預期信貸損失仍較低，比去年同期減少 43%。下降的主要原因是，與本季相比，我們在 2022 年第三季額外設立了 350 億中電撥備，而本季我們沒有設立任何額外撥備。

This, coupled with a reduction of credit risk expenses coming from provisioning models, given better-than-expected credit behavior and improved financial condition of wholesale customers participating in industries that faced uncertainty last year. Specifically, commercial loans posted lower provisions due to slowed loan growth and the release of allowances related to FOGAPE loans, partially offset by a gradual return to more normal levels of cost of risk in the mortgage and consumer loans.

再加上撥備模型帶來的信用風險費用減少，因為信用行為優於預期，參與去年面臨不確定性產業的批發客戶的財務狀況有所改善。具體而言，由於貸款成長放緩以及與 FOGAPE 貸款相關的準備金發放，商業貸款撥備減少，但部分被抵押貸款和消費貸款風險成本逐漸恢復到正常水平所抵消。

The latter is in line with a rise to more normal levels of delinquencies in the loan portfolio, as shown in the chart on the bottom left. We have full confidence that our top-tier coverage ratio, in combination with the highest level of additional provisions that remains at CLP 700 billion, offers sufficient protection to deal with a longer-than-expected economic downturn. If the level of these additional provisions proves unnecessary, our intention is to subsequently reverse a portion of them at some point in the future.

後者與貸款組合中的拖欠率上升到更正常的水平一致，如左下圖所示。我們完全有信心，我們的頂級覆蓋率，加上仍保持在 7,000 億智利比索的最高水平額外撥備，能夠提供足夠的保障來應對比預期更長的經濟衰退。如果這些額外條款的水平被證明是不必要的，我們的目的是在未來的某個時候撤銷其中的一部分。

Furthermore, we are proud to have an exceptionally healthy loan portfolio as depicted in the lower left chart, showcasing a low nonperforming loan rate of 1.35%, outperforming our peers. This accomplishment is in line with our long-term expectations and reflects our diligent risk management practices and commitment to a sustainable growth strategy.

此外，我們很自豪擁有異常健康的貸款組合，如左下圖所示，不良貸款率低至 1.35%，優於同業。這項成就符合我們的長期預期，反映了我們勤勉的風險管理實踐和對永續成長策略的承諾。

Through the risk assessment and mitigation, we aim to uphold the strength and resilience of our loan portfolio, resulting in a consistent performance and the continued trust of our stakeholders. These results are shown on the lower right chart on the slide, demonstrating our leadership and widening gap with our competitors in operating margin, net of risk, which reached an impressive 5.2% by the end of the third quarter of 2023.

透過風險評估和緩解，我們的目標是維護貸款組合的實力和彈性，從而實現一致的績效和利害關係人的持續信任。這些結果顯示在幻燈片右下角的圖表中，展示了我們的領先地位，以及在扣除風險後的營業利潤率方面與競爭對手的差距不斷擴大，到2023 年第三季度末，營業利潤率達到了令人印象深刻的5.2%。

Please turn to Slide #17. Expenses totaled CLP 270 billion in the third quarter of 2023, increasing 4.3% from the previous year. This rise primarily stems from disbursements intended to enhance our digital capabilities while fortifying our IT infrastructure. It's worth noting that a significant part of our expenses is linked to inflation in the U.S. dollar, further contributing to this annual increase.

請轉到投影片 #17。 2023年第三季費用總額為2,700億智利比索，較上年增加4.3%。這一成長主要源自於旨在增強我們的數位能力、同時強化我們的 IT 基礎架構的支出。值得注意的是，我們的支出很大一部分與美元通膨有關，進一步推動了年度成長。

Furthermore, the implementation of VAT on services this year also contributed to the increase in the cost base. It's also noteworthy that through our diverse initiatives, we generate efficiency gains that have helped to fund the necessary investments in digitalization, IT infrastructure and cybersecurity that are crucial to address the transformative changes in the banking industry.

此外，今年服務業增值稅的實施也導致了成本基礎的增加。另外值得注意的是，透過我們的多元化舉措，我們提高了效率，有助於為數位化、IT 基礎設施和網路安全方面的必要投資提供資金，這些投資對於應對銀行業的變革至關重要。

In terms of efficiency ratio, we reached 39.6% this quarter, well below our peers, as shown in the chart on the bottom. Our strong cost control is thanks to our robust productivity plan and continuous focus on searching for new savings and synergy opportunities. We are confident that the progress we have made will allow us to post long-term efficiency levels below 42% when inflation stabilizes.

就效率而言，本季我們達到了 39.6%，遠低於同行，如下圖所示。我們強大的成本控制得益於我們強大的生產力計劃和持續關注尋找新的節省和協同機會。我們相信，我們所取得的進展將使我們能夠在通膨穩定時將長期效率水準保持在 42% 以下。

Please turn to Slide 18. Before we move on to the question-and-answer session, I'd like to share a summary about our key takeaways and provide some guidance. After a period of strong growth and record levels of inflation in 2022, the Chilean economy is gradually adjusting to more normal levels of activity.

請參閱投影片 18。在我們進入問答環節之前，我想分享我們的關鍵要點的摘要並提供一些指導。在經歷了 2022 年的強勁成長和創紀錄的通膨水準之後，智利經濟正在逐步調整至更正常的活動水準。

We expect that GDP will return to positive year-on-year growth rates in the fourth quarter of this year, and we also see a slight recovery in 2024. Accordingly, we are estimating a GDP contraction of about 0.2% for 2023 and the recovery of around 1.7% for next year. However, we recognize the existence of some downward risks in these forecasts.

我們預計今年第四季GDP將恢復年比正成長，2024年也將出現小幅復甦。據此，我們預計2023年GDP將收縮0.2%左右，而2024年GDP將出現小幅復甦。明年的成長率約為1.7 %。然而，我們認識到這些預測中存在一些下行風險。

In this environment, we are confident that our bank will distinguish itself from our peers. Our prudent and consistent strategy, together with our strong management team, has positioned us as a leader in the industry in profitability, capital, risk and efficiency.

在這種環境下，我們有信心我們的銀行將在同業中脫穎而出。我們審慎一致的策略，加上強大的管理團隊，使我們在獲利能力、資本、風險和效率方面處於行業領先地位。

In terms of the main indicators for 2023, we expect the cost of risk of around 0.9% with an efficiency ratio of around 38% and ROE of 23%. Regarding capital levels, we're the best capitalized bank amongst peers with a CET1 of 13.5% as of September 2023. Towards the long term, we remain strongly convinced of our capabilities to sustain levels of ROE of around 18%.

就2023年主要指標而言，我們預期風險成本約0.9%左右，效率約38%左右，ROE約23%。就資本水準而言，我們是同業中資本最好的銀行，截至 2023 年 9 月，CET1 為 13.5%。從長遠來看，我們仍然堅信我們有能力將 ROE 水準維持在 18% 左右。

Thank you for listening. And if you have any questions, we would be happy to answer them.

感謝您的聆聽。如果您有任何疑問，我們很樂意回答。

Thank you very much for the presentation. We will now be moving to the Q&A part of the call. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mr. Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

非常感謝您的介紹。我們現在將進入電話會議的問答部分。 （操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的Tito Labarta先生。

I guess, my question is on sort of the evolution of ROE. I know you said 23% for this year and sustained, 18%. But just sort of over the next year or so, you have excess capital, you mentioned you also have excess provisions and with more normalized levels of inflation rates coming down.

我想，我的問題是關於 ROE 的演變。我知道你說今年是 23%，而且持續是 18%。但在接下來的一年左右的時間裡，你會有過剩的資本，你提到你也有過剩的準備金，而且通膨率會更加正常化水準下降。

How do you think that ROE sort of evolves from the 23% to 18% over the next year or 2? And kind of related to that, with that core Tier 1 at 13.5%, you mentioned you're well above peers, you're well above requirements. Is there room to return capital there? And what is the normalized sort of core Tier 1 that you should operate with?

您認為 ROE 在未來一兩年內如何從 23% 發展到 18%？與此相關的是，核心一級為 13.5%，您提到您遠高於同行，您遠高於要求。那裡還有資本回流的空間嗎？您應該使用哪種標準化的核心第 1 層類型？

Sorry, so as I was mentioning -- or I was trying to mention, so there's a lot of factors that work for and against revenues in this moment. Due to the pandemic and situations, we have a loan book, which I mentioned is more focused on lower income, lower margin products, lower risk. But we should start to see a normalization. Plus we have other things unwinding in both in the assets and the liability side.

抱歉，正如我剛才提到的，或者我試圖提到的，目前有很多因素對收入有利或不利。由於疫情和情況的原因，我們有一個貸款簿，我提到它更側重於較低收入、較低利潤率的產品、較低風險。但我們應該開始看到正常化。另外，我們在資產和負債方面還有其他事情正在展開。

So we think for the next year and the following years that these areas, these factors should continue unwinding. And we should begin to move gradually to a level closer of 18% of ROE. We think that 18% is our long-term level of ROE. And with a normalization in key economic figures, we think that this is very doable in the next couple of years. So it will be a gradual return to that level.

因此，我們認為在明年和接下來的幾年裡，這些領域、這些因素應該會繼續緩解。我們應該開始逐步向 ROE 18% 的水平邁進。我們認為18%是我們長期的ROE水準。隨著關鍵經濟數據的正常化，我們認為這在未來幾年是非常可行的。因此，這將逐漸回歸到那個水平。

Tito, this is Rodrigo Aravena. I'd like to add some -- just a couple of additional ideas. We're expecting a different contribution from the main macro drivers towards the future. Because on the one hand, we are aware of the lower potential capacity growth of Chile, so probably, we are going to see next year, an economic growth of around 1.5%, 1.7% something like that.

蒂托，這是羅德里戈·阿拉維納。我想補充一些——只是一些額外的想法。我們預計主要宏觀驅動因素對未來將做出不同的貢獻。因為一方面，我們意識到智利的潛在產能成長率較低，所以明年我們可能會看到1.5%、1.7%左右的經濟成長。

And from beyond that, probably the economic growth will be around 2%, something like that. We are aware that this number is lower than the number of around 3% to 5% as we used to see in the past. But on the other hand, probably we're going to have higher levels -- structural higher level of interest rate in Chile. We think that the neutral level of interest rate in Chile is higher than before.

除此之外，經濟成長率可能會在 2% 左右。我們知道這個數字低於我們過去看到的 3% 到 5% 左右的數字。但另一方面，智利的利率水準可能會更高——結構性更高。我們認為智利的中性利率水準高於之前。

In our baseline scenario in the long term, the interest rate in Chile will be around 4.5% or 5%, which is higher than the level of 3% that we're used to seeing just a couple of years ago. So that's why we are trying to say that we are going to have opposite forces between the real activity compared to the positive contribution from high inflation and higher level of interest rates. So that's why we have maintained our long-term guidance of ROE at 18%.

在我們的長期基準情境中，智利的利率將在 4.5% 或 5% 左右，這高於我們幾年前所習慣的 3% 的水平。因此，這就是為什麼我們試圖說，與高通膨和較高利率水準的積極貢獻相比，實際活動之間將產生相反的力量。這就是為什麼我們將 ROE 的長期指導維持在 18%。

Okay. And just following up on the question on core Tier 1 and what the right level should be?

好的。接下來就核心第一層的問題以及正確的等級應該是多少？

So in terms of core Tier 1, there's a lot of factors as well that we have to take into consideration. So we have a prudent, consistent strategy in the long term. So our decisions are always based on having a good risk and return level and preserving the economic value of Banco de Chile.

因此，就核心第一層而言，我們還必須考慮許多因素。因此，我們有一個審慎、一致的長期策略。因此，我們的決策始終基於良好的風險和回報水平以及維護智利銀行的經濟價值。

So that's why we've placed, prior to the pandemic, a dividend policy that's closer -- that's around 60% of distributable net income. And in the last 2 years, because of different factors and the evolution of the economy, we paid 100% of distributable net income. But the proposal of the dividend is reviewed and defined each year by these factors, economic factors, the capital needs to sustain growth in the environment.

這就是為什麼我們在大流行之前製定了更接近的股息政策——約為可分配淨利潤的 60%。在過去的兩年裡，由於不同的因素和經濟的演變，我們支付了100%的可分配淨利。但股息的提議每年都會根據這些因素、經濟因素、維持成長所需的資本環境進行審查和定義。

So in 2022, we saw an economy of political uncertainty, which reduced the expectations of growth for the following years or the following year. So we had a higher dividend policy than our -- higher dividend payout than our policy. So if we take into consideration all of this, it's important to mention that there's still a lot of factors that we have to see being implemented, for example, Basel III requirements, including Pillar 2.

所以在2022年，我們看到了政治不確定性的經濟，這降低了接下來幾年或後一年的成長預期。因此，我們的股利政策比我們的政策更高——比我們的政策更高的股利支付。因此，如果我們考慮到所有這些，值得一提的是，我們仍然需要看到很多因素得到實施，例如巴塞爾協議 III 的要求，包括第二支柱。

So for today, the policy of our dividend payout is 60%. And the moment that the annual dividend is decided is in January of every year and proposed by the Board of Directors. So in this environment of low growth, we have rolled out that future dividends would be different from the historical distributions and that we have to use our capital efficiency efficiently for risk and return. But the proposal, as I mentioned, is in January.

所以今天我們的股利支付政策是60%。年度股利決定的時間是每年一月，由董事會提議。因此，在這種低成長的環境下，我們推出了未來的股利將與歷史分配不同的政策，我們必須有效地利用我們的資本效率來應對風險和回報。但正如我所提到的，該提案是在一月份提出的。

Okay. I guess, does that mean for now that we should expect the core Tier 1 to remain around that 13.5%? I'm not clear if there is some target or it depends on several different factors, I guess, as you mentioned.

好的。我想，這是否意味著我們現在應該預期核心一級將保持在 13.5% 左右？我不清楚是否有某個目標，或者正如您所提到的，我想這取決於幾個不同的因素。

It should be around those levels.

應該在這些水平左右。

Our next question comes from Mr. Daniel Mora Ardila from CrediCorp Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 CrediCorp Capital 的 Daniel Mora Ardila 先生。

I have a couple of questions. The first one is a follow-up on ROE. I would like to understand if 2024 should be considered a transition year for Banco de Chile, considering that we continue to observe profitability figures above 20%, but the long-term target is around 18%. So do you still believe that ROE could be between 18%, 20% in the next year? Or should we see already normal figures close to the 18% for 2024? That will be my first question.

我有一些問題。第一個是 ROE 的後續。我想了解，考慮到我們繼續觀察到高於 20% 的獲利數據，但長期目標是 18% 左右，2024 年是否應該被視為智利銀行的過渡年。那麼您還相信明年ROE會在18%、20%之間嗎？或者我們應該看到 2024 年已經接近 18% 的正常數字？這是我的第一個問題。

And the second question is regarding margins. Considering the new guidance of inflation, interest rates and the fact that Banco de Chile is rebuilding the loan mix similar to the one that you have before the pandemic, what will be the path or the performance of margins from this quarter going forward in 2024?

第二個問題是關於利潤率的。考慮到新的通膨、利率指引，以及智利銀行正在重建類似於疫情前的貸款組合這一事實，從本季度到 2024 年，利潤率的走勢或表現將如何？

Thanks. Yes, so in terms of ROE, we should see a normalization. So today, we have -- and today and last year, we had very strong ROE figures of well above our long-term historical levels, last year, over 30%, this year, we're over -- well over 20%. And we should expect for the year-end, in line with the guidance, as you can see in our press release, is we're expecting around 23% for ROEs.

謝謝。是的，所以就股本回報率而言，我們應該看到正常化。所以今天，今天和去年，我們的 ROE 數據都非常強勁，遠高於我們的長期歷史水平，去年超過 30%，今年我們就超過了——遠超過 20%。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們預計年底的 ROE 約為 23%，與指引一致。

For next year, we see a year with lower overnight rate, changes in the assets and liabilities structures, which some are in favor and some are against, have an impact in terms of margins. And this should have a reduction in terms of operating income, which is normal because what we're seeing today is unsustainably high levels of revenue generation of -- they are generating this level of above 20% ROE. So it's reasonable to expect that next year, we should be closer already to the 18% level, which is our long-term level.

明年，我們認為隔夜利率較低，資產和負債結構的變化（有人贊成，有人反對）對利潤率產生影響。這應該會導致營業收入減少，這是正常的，因為我們今天看到的是不可持續的高收入水平——他們正在產生超過 20% 的 ROE。因此，我們有理由預計明年我們應該更接近 18% 的水平，這是我們的長期水平。

In terms of margins, we have -- what we're expecting is a normalization of the economic figures, which assist in these levels of margins. So this should -- this is a factor that will push down the net interest margin. But at the same time, we're continuing to see growth in the originations that we're having today are offsetting -- or the originations are offsetting the amortizations in different family of products. And what we're seeing is an improvement in spreads. So we have factors again that's in favor and against.

就利潤率而言，我們所期望的是經濟數據的正常化，這有助於提高利潤率水準。所以這應該是會壓低淨利差的因素。但與此同時，我們繼續看到我們今天所擁有的起源的增長正在抵消——或者說起源正在抵消不同產品系列的攤銷。我們看到的是利差的改善。所以我們又有贊成和反對的因素。

So today, what we're expecting for 2023 is a net interest margin close to 4.4% for this year, for the end of the year we're estimating, with the baseline scenarios you can see in the presentation. And for next year, it's reasonable to expect a slight decrease in those figures, but taking into consideration that there are factors again that are unwinding. So we have to take into consideration all of these factors that are in favor, higher spreads of different products, normalizations of overnight rates, et cetera, et cetera.

因此，今天，我們對 2023 年的預期是，今年年底的淨利差接近 4.4%，您可以在簡報中看到基準情境。對於明年，預計這些數字會略有下降是合理的，但考慮到再次出現一些因素。因此，我們必須考慮所有這些有利的因素，不同產品的更高的利差，隔夜利率的正常化等等。

And that will allow us to have a net interest margins of maybe 20 basis points lower than what we're expecting this year. So it's a normalization. In the long term, we expect net interest margins obviously, taking into consideration competition, et cetera, the long-term overnight rate expectations, something similar to what we had prior to the pandemic.

這將使我們的淨利差比我們今年的預期低 20 個基點。所以這是一種常態化。從長期來看，考慮到競爭等因素，我們預期淨利差明顯，長期隔夜利率預期與我們在大流行之前的情況類似。

Next question comes from Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的尤里·費爾南德斯。

I have a first question for Rodrigo, just his view on the constitution process, if this can be a catalyst or not, if this is not approved, if we will keep discussing a new constitution in Chile for a while or if the story will be over, so just his take on this new constitution process 2.0.

我有第一個問題要問羅德里戈，他對制憲進程的看法，這是否可以成為催化劑，如果沒有獲得批准，我們是否會繼續在智利討論新憲法一段時間，或者這個故事是否會成為現實。結束了，這是他對新憲法流程 2.0 的看法。

And I have a question for Pablo, I guess, on loan growth. What is the outlook. The industry is growing very little. Banco de Chile are also around the industry, 2% year-over-year. But in the past years, you lost some market share, right? Like Banco de Chile used to have 19%, 20% share 10 years ago. And now the bank is running at 16%, 17% share.

我想問巴勃羅一個關於貸款成長的問題。前景如何。該行業成長甚微。智利銀行 (Banco de Chile) 也處於該行業附近，年增 2%。但在過去的幾年裡，你們失去了一些市場份額，對吧？就像10年前智利銀行曾經有19%、20%的份額。現在銀行的份額為 16%、17%。

So my question is why not accelerate more the growth for 2024, regain some market share or know the scenario is too uncertain? Because you have more capital than peers. You have more coverage than peers. So why not get a little bit more aggressive on loan growth here?

所以我的問題是，為什麼不加快 2024 年的成長，重新獲得一些市場份額，或者知道情況太不確定？因為你比同齡人有更多的資本。您比同齡人擁有更多的覆蓋範圍。那麼，為什麼不在貸款成長方面更加積極一點呢？

Yuri, this is Rodrigo Aravena. Thank you very much for your question. So we have to consider several things. We are aware about the existence of different source of uncertainty on the political side in Chile, one of them is related with the constitution, as you mentioned before. It's too early to anticipate one specific impact from the constitutional process. According to different surveys, the different options for or against the votes are narrowing. But still you know that there are some differences. But we have to see how it will evolve in the future.

尤里，這是羅德里戈·阿拉維納。非常感謝您的提問。所以我們必須考慮幾件事。我們知道智利政治方面存在不同來源的不確定性，其中之一與憲法有關，正如您之前提到的。現在預測憲法程序的具體影響還為時過早。根據不同的調查，支持或反對選票的不同選項正在縮小。但您仍然知道存在一些差異。但我們必須看看它未來會如何發展。

But despite that situation, we have to put also a special attention to the evolution of some reforms in Chile. One of them, for example, is related with taxes. This year, there was a proposal from the government, which was rejected in the early stage in the Congress. Probably, we are going to have some discussion on taxes next year. Also, Chile is discussing some changes in the pension system. Today, what is on the table today is an increase on the mandatory savings rate by, say, like additional [54] points.

但儘管如此，我們還是必須特別關注智利一些改革的進展。例如，其中之一與稅收有關。今年政府有一個提案，在國會初期就被否決了。明年我們可能會就稅務問題進行一些討論。此外，智利正在討論退休金制度的一些改革。今天，擺在桌面上的是強制儲蓄率的增加，例如額外的[54]點。

But note here how will the distribution from that savings oriented to the personal savings against more a solidarity dealer. And also, we have to identify different discussions related to the political seat in the constitution, et cetera. But when we consider all these aspects, we are aware that the political -- some sources of political uncertainty are reducing our expectations for investment for the next year. So that's why we're expecting 1.7% of economic growth for the next year with a negative contribution for investments.

但請注意這裡將如何從針對更多團結經銷商的儲蓄到個人儲蓄的分配。此外，我們還必須確定與憲法中的政治席位等相關的不同討論。但當我們考慮所有這些方面時，我們意識到政治不確定性的一些來源正在降低我們對明年投資的預期。這就是為什麼我們預計明年經濟成長 1.7%，但投資貢獻為負。

On the other hand, we are more positive for consumption. But all in all, the political uncertainty is one of the reasons that's why we are still expecting a below-trend economic growth for the next year. But it's too early to anticipate any more accurate impact from the constitutional process, even though this is one of the two or three more relevant factors for the -- related with our expectation for the next year.

另一方面，我們對消費更加積極。但總而言之，政治不確定性是我們仍然預期明年經濟成長低於趨勢的原因之一。但現在預測憲法程序的任何更準確的影響還為時過早，儘管這是與我們明年的預期相關的兩三個更相關的因素之一。

And in terms of loan growth, so today, we've been growing quite well in terms of the areas where we're focused on growing but always taking in considerations a good relationship between risk and return. So we want to grow responsibly, so not only in market share. So where we have grown, which is where we are interested in, is in retail loans. And in retail loans, you can see that we have been actually growing market share, picking up market share this year in consumer loans, for example, we have close to 60 basis points higher market share. And this is an area that we're very interested in growing.

就貸款成長而言，今天，我們在重點發展的領域成長得相當好，但始終考慮到風險與回報之間的良好關係。因此，我們希望以負責任的方式實現成長，而不僅僅是市場份額。因此，我們成長的領域，也是我們感興趣的領域，是零售貸款。在零售貸款方面，你可以看到我們的市佔率實際上一直在成長，今年在消費貸款方面的市佔率有所上升，例如，我們的市佔率提高了近60個基點。這是我們非常有興趣發展的領域。

So if we look at our key focus areas is the retail segment, which includes SMEs. SMEs and consumer loans are the most profitable and the areas that we want to continue growing. In terms of areas that we've had lower dynamism in the past has been corporate loans. It's an area that we would like to continue being there. That's an area that will continue growing. The demand today isn't there.

因此，如果我們看看我們的重點領域是零售領域，其中包括中小企業。中小企業和消費貸款是最賺錢的領域，也是我們希望繼續成長的領域。就我們過去活力較低的領域而言，是企業貸款。我們希望繼續留在這個領域。這是一個將繼續成長的領域。今天的需求不存在。

So what we've seen is a much lower demand in this area. But we think that we can return to growing in this product. If we think of next year expectations of loan growth for the industry and us, the industry, we're expecting somewhere around the 6%, 7% nominal. And our intention is to grow above that in terms of market share responsibly. And we should continue growing in this key area that we're focused on, which is the retail segment, especially in consumer and SME loans.

所以我們看到這個領域的需求要低得多。但我們認為我們可以恢復該產品的成長。如果我們考慮明年該行業和我們行業的貸款成長預期，我們預計名目成長率約為 6%、7%。我們的目的是負責任地提高市場佔有率。我們應該在我們關注的關鍵領域繼續成長，即零售領域，特別是消費者和中小企業貸款。

Super good. Pablo, anything special you are doing in retail? Like we see some peers with partnerships with retailers, like we have retail banks in Chile also growing in certain areas of retail, right, on credit cards. Are you doing something in particular? I don't know, like on SME, do you have any special approach? What are you doing to grow on the retail side of things?

超好。 Pablo，您在零售業做了什麼特別的事嗎？就像我們看到一些同業與零售商建立了合作夥伴關係一樣，就像我們在智利的零售銀行也在某些零售領域不斷發展一樣，對吧，信用卡。你在做某件事嗎？不知道對於中小企業，你們有什麼特別的做法嗎？您正在採取哪些措施來發展零售業務？

We're implementing different commercial strategies in order to improve the relationships with customers and offer different products and services through the channels that the customers are demanding and having the appropriate marketing campaigns that are directed to each one of the customer segments.

我們正在實施不同的商業策略，以改善與客戶的關係，透過客戶所需的管道提供不同的產品和服務，並針對每個客戶群進行適當的行銷活動。

And what we've seen by implementing this strategy is stronger growth levels and originations across our -- the retail product segments. For example, mortgage loans had a very strong growth in terms of originations versus last year, thanks to this approach of these proactive strategies in order to try and grow in certain segments that we're interested in.

透過實施這項策略，我們看到零售產品領域的成長水準和起源都更加強勁。例如，抵押貸款的發放量與去年相比有了非常強勁的成長，這要歸功於這些積極主動的策略，以便嘗試在我們感興趣的某些細分市場中實現成長。

So it's a lot of internal changes in order to improve the commercial strategies, implement the best practices across all the branches and employees in order to drive growth at the customer level and to use the digital accounts to continue increasing the customers available that we can cross-sell to other products and services. So the digital accounts are very important for us as well. And we've seen a very high cross-sell ratio and growth in terms of other products and services from these customers into the bank.

因此，為了改善商業策略，在所有分支機構和員工中實施最佳實踐，以推動客戶層面的成長，並使用數位帳戶繼續增加我們可以跨越的可用客戶，需要進行大量內部變革。 - 出售給其他產品和服務。因此，數位帳戶對我們也非常重要。我們看到這些客戶向銀行提供的其他產品和服務具有非常高的交叉銷售率和成長。

Our next question comes from Mr. Ernesto Gabilondo.

我們的下一個問題來自埃內斯托·加比隆多先生。

My first question is on your reserve coverage ratio. So can you remind us how much additional provisions does Banco de Chile continue to have? And when do you expect to have a more normalized level in your reserve coverage ratio? My second question is on asset quality. So you are guiding a cost of risk of 0.9% for '23. So how should we think about this ratio for 2024? And my last question is on your effective tax rate. How should we consider it under lower inflation levels?

我的第一個問題是關於你們的準備金覆蓋率。那麼您能否提醒我們智利銀行還有多少額外準備？您預計準備金覆蓋率何時會達到更正常化的水平？我的第二個問題是關於資產品質。因此，您為 23 年指導的風險成本為 0.9%。那我們該如何看待2024年的這個比率呢？我的最後一個問題是關於你們的有效稅率。在較低的通膨水準下我們該如何看待？

So the coverage ratio that we have today is close to 3x. Long-term levels is closer to 2x. What's driving this higher level or higher than peers' coverage ratio is we have a large -- we have the leading level of additional provisions in the industry. You can see this on Slide 16. And this amounts to CLP 700 billion. So it's reasonable to expect in the long term or the medium term that we should probably return to levels similar to what we've had in the past, which is closer to the 2x. The second question, can you repeat the second question, please?

所以我們今天的覆蓋率接近 3 倍。長期水準接近 2 倍。推動這一更高水平或高於同行的覆蓋率的原因是我們擁有大量的——我們擁有行業領先水平的附加條款。您可以在幻燈片 16 上看到這一點。這相當於 7000 億智利比索。因此，有理由預期，從長期或中期來看，我們可能會回到與過去類似的水平，即更接近 2 倍。第二個問題，你能重複第二個問題嗎？

Yes, of course. Second question was on your cost of risk. So for this year, it's 0.9%. How should we think for 2024?

是的當然。第二個問題是關於你的風險成本。所以今年是 0.9%。 2024年我們該如何思考？

So cost of risk, we have to continue to see in how the pandemic and customer behaviors affect the long-term behaviors in terms of repayment and -- or payment behaviors and as well as how the evolution of the economy continues. So if we look at the baseline scenario that we're expecting is below trend growth, I would say, below 2%, as you saw in the presentation.

因此，就風險成本而言，我們必須持續觀察疫情和客戶行為如何影響還款和支付行為的長期行為，以及經濟如何持續發展。因此，如果我們看看我們預期低於趨勢成長的基線情景，我會說，低於 2%，正如您在演示中看到的那樣。

And this should translate into a level that should slowly be returning to the long-term levels that we've seen in the past, which is around 1.1%, 1.2% for cost of risk. So we're -- we think that's a reasonable level. But we always have to take into consideration that we have to see the permanent impacts of the pandemic and customer behaviors and the evolution of the economy in that figure.

這應該會慢慢恢復到我們過去看到的長期水平，即風險成本約為 1.1%、1.2% 左右。所以我們認為這是一個合理的水平。但我們始終必須考慮到，我們必須在該數字中看到流行病和客戶行為以及經濟演變的永久影響。

Okay, understood, so 1.1%, 1.2%. And if you release provisions, could it be more at 1% or that 1.1%?

好的，明白了，所以 1.1%、1.2%。如果發放準備金，會是 1% 還是 1.1%？

The 1% -- I would say the 1.2% would be -- it would be closer to the 1.1% than the 1.2%. Normalization would be throughout the remainder of next -- throughout next year is reasonable. And in terms of provisions, it's something that's decided at the Board level based on different economic factors of viewpoint. There is CLP 700 billion there, so it could be varied, the relationship between cost of risk and the release of those provisions if that were to occur at some point in time in the future. And the effective tax rate is -- with inflation of around 3%, the effective tax rate should be around 23% for Banco de Chile.

1%——我想說的是 1.2%——它比 1.2% 更接近 1.1%。正常化將在明年剩餘時間內進行——整個明年都是合理的。就規定而言，這是董事會層級根據不同經濟因素的觀點決定的。那裡有 7000 億智利比索，因此如果在未來某個時間發生這種情況，風險成本與這些準備金的釋放之間的關係可能​​會有所不同。有效稅率是－在通貨膨脹率約為 3% 的情況下，智利銀行的有效稅率應為 23% 左右。

Okay, thank you very much. It looks like we have no further questions at this point. I'll pass the line back to the team for the concluding remarks.

好的，非常感謝。目前看來我們沒有其他問題了。我會將這條線傳回給團隊進行總結發言。

Thank you for listening, and we look forward to having our next conference call with you. Bye.

感謝您的聆聽，我們期待與您舉行下一次電話會議。再見。

Thank you very much. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

非常感謝。我們現在將關閉所有線路。非常感謝，再見。