Banco de Chile (BCH) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Banco de Chile's Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. If you need a copy of the management financial review, it is available on the company's website.

大家下午好，歡迎參加智利銀行 2023 年第四季業績電話會議。如果您需要管理層財務審查的副本，可以在公司網站上找到。

With us today, we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer; Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations; Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital; and Natalia Villela Investor Relations.

今天與我們在一起的有首席經濟學家兼機構關係官羅德里戈·阿拉維納 (Rodrigo Aravena) 先生； Pablo Mejia 先生，投資者關係主管； Daniel Galarce，財務控制與資本主管；和納塔利婭·維萊拉投資者關係。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded, and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議正在錄音，今天討論的資訊可能包括有關公司財務和經營業績的前瞻性陳述。所有預測都存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱本公司新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的詳細說明。

I will now turn it over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把它交給羅德里戈·阿拉維納先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for attending this conference call today, where we will present financial results and the main achievements for the fourth quarter and consequently, the full year 2023.

大家下午好。非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議，我們將在會議中介紹第四季以及 2023 年全年的財務表現和主要成就。

Similar to previous presentations, we will share our analysis of the competitive landscape of the period, followed by the progress in our main strategic initiatives. And we will finally present financial results.

與先前的演講類似，我們將分享我們對這段時期競爭格局的分析，然後是我們主要策略舉措的進展。我們最終將公佈財務業績。

But before moving to this slide, I'd like to highlight the most important achievement of our bank during the year. Please go to Slide #2.

但在開始播放這張投影片之前，我想先強調一下我們銀行在這一年中最重要的成就。請轉到投影片 #2。

We are very proud of our successful year. We let the industry and result in several aspects of the business, confirming our proven capacity to continuously add economic value to our shareholders. On this slide, we present a summary of some of the main achievements of the bank during the year.

我們對今年的成功感到非常自豪。我們讓產業和業務在多個方面取得成果，證實了我們持續為股東增加經濟價值的能力。在這張投影片上，我們總結了該銀行在這一年中取得的一些主要成就。

On the financial front, we led the industry once again with a net income of CLP 1.2 trillion, equivalent to an ROE of 25.1%, allowing us to increase the [gap] with our main payers. In fact, in 2023, we represented 27.2% of the total net income posted by the industry.

在財務方面，我們以1.2兆智利比索的淨利潤再次領先產業，相當於25.1%的ROE，使我們能夠拉大與主要付款人的[差距]。事實上，到 2023 年，我們佔該產業總淨利的 27.2%。

It's worth mentioning that these impressive results were achieved despite the existence of headwinds faced in 2023, such as the recession for most of the year, the downward trend in inflation, higher unemployment and increased delinquency, among others.

值得一提的是，儘管2023年面臨經濟衰退、通膨下降、失業率上升和犯罪率上升等不利因素，但仍取得了這些令人印象深刻的成果。

We also led the industry in capital adequacy by holding strong indicators and positive gaps, in relation to internal and regulatory thresholds that enable us to be confident to face business as usual growth, while dealing with potential stressing situations attributable either to the economic cycles or idiosyncratic exposures.

我們在資本充足率方面也處於行業領先地位，在內部和監管門檻方面保持強勁的指標和積極的差距，使我們有信心面對業務照常增長，同時應對經濟週期或特殊情況造成的潛在壓力情況曝光。

Likewise, our capital base enable us to address increased regulatory requirements established as part of the implementation of Basel III regulation in Chile. In addition, we posted the best asset quality indicators, while maintaining the quarter core ratio of the industry of 2.7x, when taking additional provisions into consideration. Similarly, we lead the industry in terms of efficiency and maintain the best customer service in the country.

同樣，我們的資本基礎使我們能夠滿足在智利實施巴塞爾 III 監管過程中製定的日益嚴格的監管要求。此外，在考慮附加準備金的情況下，我們公佈了最好的資產品質指標，同時保持產業2.7倍的季度核心比率。同樣，我們在效率方面處於行業領先地位，並保持全國最好的客戶服務。

On ESG, we achieved further improvements in external ratings, attaining the best evaluation according to Sustainalytics, and we issued social bonds under the sustainability financing framework.

ESG方面，外部評級進一步提升，獲得Sustainalytics最佳評價，並發行可持續融資框架下的社會債券。

In the rest of this presentation, we will present the basis behind these achievements. Let me start with the macro economic environment where we operate. Please move to Slide #4.

在本次演講的其餘部分中，我們將介紹這些成就背後的基礎。我先從我們所處的宏觀經濟環境說起。請移至投影片 #4。

The Chilean economy began to show signs of improvement after 3 quarters of negative year-on-year growth rate. As you can see in the chart on the left, 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter and a value informations from the fourth quarter suggests a modest recovery of 0.2% year-on-year. Given this result, the economy probably didn't grow in 2023. From a demand perspective, two opposite forces explain this result, a negative contribution from the domestic demand, given the fall in private consumption and gross investment. In contrast, the rise in net export due to the (inaudible) decline in imports contributed to the opposite direction. Nevertheless, there are some important factors to consider behind this outcome. First, the recession between late 2022 and mid-2023 resulted from a normalization of the economy after the substantial rise of local spending in the previous year. Specifically, the absence of measures implemented during the pandemic, such as pension fund withdrawal, the adjustment of the fiscal spending in 2022 and 2023 and the contractionary monetary policy led to an important adjustment, especially in domestic consumption. The chart on the other right, shows the decline in commerce, where services have gradually been offsetting this decline. Secondly, it's important to be aware that this adjustment, apart from being temporary, has also contributed to reducing the macroeconomic imbalances. Notably, the current account deficit measured as the accumulated figures of the last 12 months declined from a peak of 10% of the GDP in 2022 to 3.5% in the third quarter, which is the last available figure. As we will see in the next slide, the narrow win in the external deficit an output gap has been reflected in a normalization of several economic figures. Please turn to Slide #5.

智利經濟在連續三個季度同比負增長後開始出現好轉跡象。如左圖所示，第三季年增 0.6%，第四季的價值資訊顯示年比溫和復甦 0.2%。鑑於這一結果，2023年經濟可能不會成長。從需求角度來看，有兩種相反的力量解釋了這一結果，即考慮到私人消費和總投資下降，內需的負貢獻。相較之下，由於進口（聽不清楚）下降而導致的淨出口上升則產生了相反的影響。儘管如此，這項結果背後仍有一些重要因素需要考慮。首先，2022年底至2023年中期的衰退是上一年本地支出大幅成長後經濟正常化的結果。具體來說，疫情期間退休金退出、2022年和2023年財政支出調整以及緊縮貨幣政策等措施的缺失導致了重要調整，尤其是國內消費方面。右邊的圖表顯示了商業的下降，其中服務業逐漸抵消了這種下降。其次，值得注意的是，這種調整不僅是暫時的，而且有助於減少宏觀經濟失衡。值得注意的是，以過去 12 個月的累積資料衡量的經常帳赤字從 2022 年佔 GDP 10% 的峰值下降至第三季的 3.5%，這是最新的數據。正如我們將在下一張投影片中看到的那樣，外部赤字和產出缺口的微弱優勢已反映在一些經濟數據的正常化中。請翻到投影片 #5。

As mentioned, the substantial decline in domestic spending was a key driver for the downward trend in local inflation at the chart on the other left displays. In 2023, the annual inflation rate went down to 3.9%, after posting a yearly rise of 12.7% 1 year ago and a peak of 14% in August of 2022, returning to the tolerance range set by the Central Bank, which is 3% plus or minus 1% for the first time since 2021. All the core measures have been declining, reflecting lower pressures in the economy.

如前所述，國內支出的大幅下降是左圖另一幅圖表中當地通膨下降趨勢的關鍵驅動因素。 2023年，年通膨率在一年前同比增長12.7%、2022年8月達到14%的峰值後，回落至3.9%，回到央行設定的3%的容忍區間2021年以來首次正負1% 。所有核心指標均在下降，反映出經濟壓力減輕。

Apart from its impact on local inflation, the sluggish activity has also affected the evolution of the labor market. The chart in the other right shows the unemployment rate has slightly been increasing. In the fourth quarter, it rose to 8.5%, which is 60 basis points higher than the figure posted 1 year ago. While in 2023, it was 8.7%, being 80 points higher than the unemployment rate of 2022.

除了影響本地通膨外，經濟活動低迷也影響了勞動市場的演變。右圖顯示失業率略有上升。第四季升至8.5%，比一年前高出60個基點。而2023年，這一數字為8.7%，比2022年的失業率高出80個百分點。

Even though higher unemployment is consistent with a weak environment, it is worth mentioning that this trend has mainly been explained by the acceleration of the labor force, rather than a full unemployment.

儘管失業率上升與疲軟的環境一致，但值得一提的是，這一趨勢主要是由勞動力加速成長造成的，而不是完全失業。

In fact, as seen in the chart, on the bottom right, label participation has been recovering the lost ground during the pandemic, suggesting that the higher unemployment is a consequence of the greater labor supply, rather than weaker employment.

事實上，如圖右下角所示，標籤參與度一直在收復疫情期間的失地，這表明失業率上升是勞動力供應增加的結果，而不是就業疲軟的結果。

In this scenario, marked by lower growth and more normalized inflation, the Central Bank began an [nuisance] cycle in the monetary policy in July of last year, when it reduced the rate by 100 basis points to 10.25%. This decision was followed by further reduction during the fourth quarter that led to the reference rate to 8.25% at the end of the last year, with a clear expansionary bias anticipating further cut during this year.

在這種以較低的成長和更正常的通膨為特徵的情況下，央行於去年7月開始了貨幣政策的[滋擾]週期，當時將利率降低了100個基點至10.25%。這項決定之後，第四季進一步下調，導致去年年底參考利率降至 8.25%，明顯的擴張性傾向預計今年將進一步下調。

I'd like to share our best scenario for this year. Please go to the next slide, #6.

我想分享我們今年最好的場景。請轉到下一張投影片#6。

We have a more constructive view of the economy for this year. We expect the economy to retain positive growth rate, probably towards 1.5%, after the [new] expansion in 2023.

我們對今年的經濟抱持更具建設性的看法。我們預計 2023 年經濟擴張後將維持正成長率，可能達到 1.5%。

As seen in the table, we foresee a recovery in domestic demand, mainly in consumption on the ground of both lower inflation and decreasing interest rates. Nevertheless, we expect an expansion still below the long-term capacity of the economy, which is estimated at nearly 2%, due to the lack of investment.

從表中可以看出，由於通膨下降和利率下降，我們預期國內需求（主要是消費）將出現復甦。儘管如此，由於缺乏投資，我們預期經濟擴張仍低於經濟的長期容量（估計接近 2%）。

In prices, the CPI should continue falling from 3.9% in 2023 to 3% this year. In fact, the year-on-year inflation will likely reach the Central Bank target of 3% before midyear. Based on this trend and in line with the guidance provided by the Central Bank in its December monetary policy report, we see room for further rate cuts to 4.5% by the end of this year.

物價方面，CPI應該會繼續從2023年的3.9%下降到今年的3%。事實上，通膨年增率很可能在年中之前達到央行3%的目標。基於此趨勢，並根據央行在 12 月貨幣政策報告中提供的指引，我們認為今年年底前還有進一步降息至 4.5% 的空間。

The chart on the right shows our quarterly rate and CPI expectations for the following periods. We acknowledge the existing of risk, that could potentially affect the macro scenario. From the center front, the evolution of its main three partners of Chile, such as China and the United States are worth paying attention to.

右圖顯示了我們對以下期間的季度率和 CPI 預期。我們承認存在風險，這可能會影響宏觀形勢。從中間面看，中國、美國等智利三大主要夥伴的演變值得關注。

Internally, some aspects related to the discussion of some reforms, including taxes, the pension system and the health care system that could affect the economy or the financial condition of certain sectors.

在內部，一些方面涉及一些改革的討論，包括稅收、退休金制度和醫療保健制度，這些改革可能會影響經濟或某些部門的財務狀況。

As we mentioned in previous conference calls, banks are a good reflection of the economy. Having said that, I'd like to move to the next slide, #7.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中提到的，銀行是經濟的良好反映。話雖如此，我想轉到下一張投影片，#7。

To analyze how the economy impacted results in the financial industry in the fourth quarter and over the year 2023.

分析經濟對第四季和 2023 年金融業績的影響。

Last year, the local banking business was marked by declining loan growth due to weakened economic environment. As you can see in the chart on the other right, commercial and consumer loans suffered the largest decline, while mortgage loans decreased partially due to lower inflation, as this product is indexed to CBI. As a result, the industry total loans grew by 3.2% in nominal terms, but contracted by 1.5% in real terms on an annual basis as of December 2023.

去年，由於經濟環境疲弱，本地銀行業務的貸款成長下降。如右圖所示，商業和消費貸款降幅最大，而抵押貸款下降部分是由於通膨較低，因為該產品與 CBI 掛鉤。因此，截至 2023 年 12 月，該行業貸款總額名義增加 3.2%，但實際年減 1.5%。

In this context, the industry reported a net income for the full quarter of CLP 1.2 trillion and CLP 4.6 trillion for the full year in 2023, equal to an ROE of 15.9% and 15.4%, respectively.

在此背景下，該產業報告2023年全季淨利為1.2兆智利比索，全年淨利為4.6兆智利比索，相當於ROE分別為15.9%和15.4%。

When compared to the prior year, full year net income fell by 16.9%. This decrease was primarily attributes to lower NII as inflation came down, higher operating expenses and temporary behavior of effective credit losses that was a combination of an important rise in core credit charges that was offset by decreasing the establishment of additional provisions.

與上年相比，全年淨利下降16.9%。這一下降主要歸因於通貨膨脹下降導致的NII下降、營業費用的增加以及有效信貸損失的暫時表現，而有效信貸損失是核心信貸費用大幅上升的組合，但通過減少額外準備金的設立而被抵消。

Looking ahead to 2024, we anticipate several key developments. We paid more dynamism in terms of loan growth, driven by improved economic conditions, particularly due to increased consumption that would be partially counterbalanced by a slight contraction in private investment.

展望 2024 年，我們預計將出現幾個關鍵發展。在經濟狀況改善的推動下，我們在貸款成長方面付出了更大的活力，特別是由於消費增加，而私人投資的小幅收縮部分抵消了消費的增加。

Accordingly, we forecast real growth for the industry loan portfolio within the range of 2% to 2.5%, led by consumer and residential mortgage loans.

因此，我們預計行業貸款組合的實際成長將在 2% 至 2.5% 之間，其中消費貸款和住宅抵押貸款將帶動成長。

From a funding perspective, we anticipate a more normal behavior of demand deposits in 2024, where real and expansion aligned with the GDP growth. At the same time, due to decrease in interest rate and lower inflation compensation for customers, we foresee a potential buyers towards long-term funding that should increase in line with loan growth rather than short-term time deposits, resulting in marginal declines in the latter.

從融資角度來看，我們預期 2024 年活期存款行為將更加正常，實際成長和擴張與 GDP 成長一致。同時，由於利率下降和對客戶的通膨補償降低，我們預計潛在買家將傾向於長期融資，而長期融資將隨著貸款增長而不是短期定期存款而增加，從而導致長期融資的邊際下降後者。

In terms of net income, we consider sale factors influencing net interest margin, with expectation of NIM falling within the range of 3.2% to 3.5% for the industry in 2024, depending on the balance sheet structure of each bank.

淨利方面，我們考慮銷售因素影響淨利差，預計2024年產業淨利差將下降在3.2%至3.5%的區間內，取決於各銀行的資產負債表結構。

Credit risk management will remain in the spotlight, with an improved but still constrained economic outlook and implementation of (inaudible) provisioning methodology for consumer loans.

隨著經濟前景有所改善但仍受到限制，以及消費貸款撥備方法（聽不清楚）的實施，信用風險管理仍將成為人們關注的焦點。

Now I'd like to pass the call to Pablo, who will go into more detail about Banco de Chile's strategy and financial performance.

現在我想把電話轉給巴勃羅，他將更詳細地介紹智利銀行的策略和財務表現。

Thank you, Rodrigo. I would like to begin with advances in our main strategic focus. Please go to Slide #9. The solid track record of results that we have consistently achieved has resulted from our permanent focus on 3 strategic pillars: customer centricity, productivity and sustainability. By focusing on these areas and implementing our core initiatives, we have exceeded our midterm targets as shown on the right of the slide.

謝謝你，羅德里戈。我想先談談我們主要戰略重點的進展。請轉到投影片 #9。我們持續取得的良好業績記錄源自於我們對三大策略支柱的長期關注：以客戶為中心、生產力和永續性。透過專注於這些領域並實施我們的核心舉措，我們已經超額完成了中期目標，如幻燈片右側所示。

On the next page, we'll look closer at our main accomplishments in digital transformation, productivity and sustainability. Let me start with digital banking. Please move to the next Slide #10.

在下一頁中，我們將仔細研究我們在數位轉型、生產力和永續性方面的主要成就。讓我從數位銀行開始。請移至下一張投影片 #10。

To be the best bank for our customers, during 2023, we continued focusing on developing innovative solutions and creating a comprehensive digital ecosystem to provide the best experience to our customers. Some of our initiatives were launching a digital onboarding current account in U.S. dollars for individuals and companies and integrating the contactless mobile payment functionality through Apple Pay wallet as soon as it was available in Chile.

為了成為客戶最好的銀行，2023年，我們繼續專注於開發創新解決方案並創建全面的數位生態系統，為客戶提供最佳體驗。我們的一些措施包括為個人和公司推出數位美元活期帳戶​​，並在 Apple Pay 錢包在智利推出後立即透過此功能整合非接觸式行動支付功能。

In addition, we have offered digital accounts for diverse segments, including SMEs and teenagers that registered 1.4 million accounts. Our initiatives were recognized by Praxis Xperience Index, which awarded us -- the bank with the best customer experience in the country.

此外，我們也為不同細分市場提供數位帳戶，包括中小企業和青少年，註冊了 140 萬個帳戶。我們的舉措得到了 Praxis Xperience Index 的認可，該指數授予我們——全國最佳客戶體驗的銀行。

On the efficiency and productivity front, we continued implementing diverse initiatives to build a fast, timely, secure and digital bank.

在效率和生產力方面，我們持續實施多樣化舉措，打造快速、及時、安全的數位化銀行。

A significant achievement has been the comprehensive review of our physical infrastructure, identifying areas for space rationalization and unlocking potential savings while ensuring our infrastructure remains efficient.

一項重大成就是對我們的有形基礎設施進行了全面審查，確定了空間合理化的領域並釋放了潛在的節省空間，同時確保我們的基礎設施保持高效。

Additionally, we enhanced our investment planning process to ensure that our strategic initiatives were in line with our long-term goals, and introduced a new corporate procurement model to optimize resource allocation.

此外，我們加強了投資規劃流程，以確保我們的策略性舉措符合我們的長期目標，並引入了新的企業採購模式以優化資源配置。

Furthermore, we conducted a reengineering of our branch service processes, resulting in an improved service time and customer experience.

此外，我們對分行服務流程進行了重新設計，從而改善了服務時間和客戶體驗。

At the same time, we continued to strengthen our ESG initiatives. Among many actions we have implemented towards sustainability, we'd like to highlight the issuance of our social bonds under the ESG framework to finance enterprises led by women, driving economic empowerment and gender equality.

同時，我們持續強化 ESG 措施。在我們為實現永續發展而採取的眾多行動中，我們要強調的是在 ESG 框架下發行社會債券，為女性領導的企業提供融資，推動經濟賦權和性別平等。

In line with our commitment to promote entrepreneurship, we continued implementing diverse national contest aimed at SMEs and students as well as several volunteering initiatives.

根據我們促進創業的承諾，我們繼續開展針對中小企業和學生的多樣化全國競賽以及多項志願活動。

Our actions on sustainability led us to be the top performer in the local industry in Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating, and to be recognized by several institutions, both locally and abroad.

我們在永續發展方面的行動使我們成為 Sustainalytics ESG 風險評級中當地行業的佼佼者，並得到了國內外多家機構的認可。

Please turn to Slide 12 to go into detail about Banco de Chile's financial performance. 2023 has proven to be another exceptional year of productivity for us, as evidenced on the chart to the left. Every quarter this year, we surpassed our long-term sustainable ROE estimates, and we posted an outstanding 30.2% return on average equity in the fourth quarter. When compared to our peers, our bottom line almost doubled that of our closest competitor.

請參閱投影片 12，詳細了解智利銀行的財務表現。事實證明，2023 年對我們來說又是生產力非凡的一年，如左圖。今年每個季度，我們都超越了長期可持續的 ROE 預期，第四季度的平均股本回報率達到了 30.2%，表現出色。與我們的同行相比，我們的利潤幾乎是最接近的競爭對手的兩倍。

In terms of return on average equity, we posted a strong 25.1% level for the full year. Our competitive advantages, consistent long-term strategy and solid governance practices have enabled us to achieve this positive outcome.

就平均股本回報率而言，我們全年的平均股本回報率高達 25.1%。我們的競爭優勢、一致的長期策略和紮實的治理實踐使我們能夠取得這一積極成果。

We acted consistently during the pandemic by maintaining a long-term view on business decisions that were focused on our core fundamentals. In the end, the strategy translated into the outstanding results that we are seeing today, despite the environment of normalization and the economic factors such as inflation, interest rates and liquidity.

我們在疫情期間始終如一地採取行動，對注重核心基本面的業務決策保持長期看法。最終，儘管存在正常化環境以及通貨膨脹、利率和流動性等經濟因素，但該策略轉化為我們今天看到的出色成果。

Let's move on to Slide 13 on operating revenues, where we'll dig deeper into our figures. Operating revenues increased 7% when we look at the fourth quarter of 2023 versus the same quarter of the prior year, thanks to improved income from loans, enhanced results from financial instruments and higher margins from deposits.

讓我們繼續看關於營業收入的幻燈片 13，我們將在其中更深入地研究我們的數據。 2023 年第四季度，由於貸款收入增加、金融工具業績增強以及存款利潤率提高，營業收入較上年同期增長 7%。

For the full year, operating income decreased by 4% year-on-year, which was mainly due to the normalization of economic factors. Specifically, the drop was due to non-customer income, driven by a sharp reduction of inflation that went from 13.3% in 2022 to 4.8% in 2023, as measured by the variation of the UF. This was, to a great extent, offset by customer income that grew strongly by 11% year-on-year, boosted by a higher contribution of demand deposits and time deposits, as well as a greater income from loans driven both by growth and improved lending spreads in most of our lending products.

全年營業收入較去年同期下降4%，主要受經濟因素正常化影響。具體而言，下降的原因是非客戶收入，其驅動因素是通貨膨脹率急劇下降，從 UF 的變化衡量，通貨膨脹率從 2022 年的 13.3% 降至 2023 年的 4.8%。這在很大程度上被活期存款和定期存款貢獻增加以及增長和改善帶動的貸款收入增加所帶動的客戶收入同比強勁增長11%所抵消。我們大多數貸款產品都有貸款利差。

Additionally, fee income also contributed to compensating this drop in revenues. The annual expansion of fees was supported by rise in insurance brokerage premiums and transactional services, primarily associated to greater credit card transactions and increased fees related to loans.

此外，費用收入也有助於彌補收入的下降。保險經紀保費和交易服務的成長支撐了費用的年度增長，這主要與信用卡交易的增加和貸款相關費用的增加有關。

When compared to our peers, we outperformed them in the main financial indicators such as net interest margin, fee margin and total operating margin as shown on the chart to the right.

與同行相比，我們在淨利差、手續費率和總營業利潤率等主要財務指標上優於同行，如右圖所示。

On the next slide, we'll take a closer look at how our assets and liabilities have advanced. Please turn to Slide 14.

在下一張投影片中，我們將仔細研究我們的資產和負債的成長。請翻到投影片 14。

Total loans grew by 2.5% year-on-year and 2.3% on a sequential basis. Like what occurred at the industry level, this modest growth has been the result of 4 years of subdued economic activity in an environment still marked by uncertainty and higher levels of interest rates and particularly in 2023, the delinquency indicators are returning to normal levels as expected. All these factors have affected supply and demand for loans in Chile.

貸款總額較去年同期成長2.5%，較上季成長2.3%。與產業層面的情況一樣，這種溫和的成長是四年來經濟活動低迷、環境仍然充滿不確定性和利率上升的結果，特別是在 2023 年，拖欠指標正按預期恢復到正常水平。所有這些因素都影響了智利的貸款供需。

Mortgage loans and consumer loans have posted positive growth, but expanding at slower pace than in prepandemic years. Residential mortgage loans grew 7.8% year-on-year in nominal terms. It's important to highlight that mortgages are primarily indexed inflation. So in real terms, growth was around 3% in 2023.

抵押貸款和消費貸款出現正成長，但成長速度低於疫情前幾年。住宅抵押貸款名義年增7.8%。需要強調的是，抵押貸款主要是指數通膨。因此，以實際價值計算，2023 年成長率約為 3%。

As for consumer loans, we have seen slightly lower dynamism versus 2002 (sic) [2022], as some economic factors that benefit consumer lending, such as the reduction in liquidity levels from the pension fund withdrawal and the end of the COVID lockdowns in Chile have ended.

至於消費貸款，我們發現與2002 年（原文如此）[2022] 相比，活力略有下降，因為一些有利於消費貸款的經濟因素，例如退休基金提取導致的流動性水平下降以及智利新冠疫情封鎖的結束已經結束了。

In 2023, demand for consumer loans was more in line with long-term levels, especially when taking into consideration a weak labor market, consumer confidence and sluggish economy.

2023年，消費貸款需求更符合長期水平，特別是考慮到勞動市場疲軟、消費者信心和經濟低迷的情況。

Nevertheless, we managed to grow faster than the market, gaining 70 basis points in market share by deploying targeted campaigns based on both business and risk intelligence models that pursuit to accurately promote installment loans among targeted personal banking segments, and the expansion of the use of credit cards by reinforcing promotions and loyalty programs tailored to our middle and upper segments of the retail customer banking area.

儘管如此，我們仍以比市場更快的速度成長，透過部署基於業務和風險情報模型的有針對性的活動，在目標個人銀行細分市場中準確推廣分期貸款，並擴大使用信用卡，加強針對零售客戶銀行領域中上層客戶的促銷和忠誠度計畫。

As per commercial loans, these continued weakening, dropping 1.5% year-on-year, but recovering 1.9% on a sequential basis.

商業貸款持續疲軟，年減1.5%，但較上季回升1.9%。

Still higher than normal interest rates, reduced private investment and business uncertainty have significantly reduced the demand from the Wholesale Banking segment. Additionally, SMEs during the pandemic were heavily supported through the government guarantee program, which reduced the room to continue penetrating the segment with new originations in 2023.

利率仍高於正常水平，私人投資減少和業務不確定性大大減少了批發銀行業務的需求。此外，疫情期間中小企業得到了政府擔保計畫的大力支持，這減少了2023年新產品繼續滲透該領域的空間。

In 2024, we expect that demand for loans to pick up in line with an improved environment. Total loans for us should grow in the range of 5% to 6% in nominal terms, in line with expectations for the long term loan growth to GDP elasticity of around 1.3x plus inflation.

2024年，我們預期貸款需求將隨著環境的改善而回升。以名目價值計算，我們的貸款總額應增加 5% 至 6%，符合長期貸款成長佔 GDP 彈性約 1.3 倍加通膨的預期。

In this baseline scenario, we are anticipating a recovery of commercial loans from negative territory to around 5% and retail loans should expand around 6%. This should permit us to pick up market share in their key strategic areas. Please turn to Slide 15.

在此基準情境下，我們預期商業貸款將從負值恢復至 5% 左右，零售貸款應擴大 6% 左右。這將使我們能夠在他們的關鍵策略領域中獲得市場份額。請翻到投影片 15。

Over the last 4 years, there have been significant changes in our asset and liability structure. Financial instruments have grown substantially, now accounting for almost 20% of our total assets when compared to just 9% in 2019. This increase can be attributed to the significant surge in liquidity within the Chilean economy that resulted in abnormal inflow of demand deposits, as evident in the demand deposit to total loan ratio shown on the table, the right of this slide.

過去四年來，我們的資產和負債結構發生了重大變化。金融工具大幅成長，目前占我們總資產的近 20%，而 2019 年僅為 9%。這一增長可歸因於智利經濟內部流動性大幅增加，導致活期存款異常流入，這張幻燈片右側表格中顯示的活期存款與貸款總額的比率顯而易見。

Additionally, the Chilean Central Bank introduced the FCIC program as a finance facility for banks to promote lending during the pandemic, which expires between March 30 and July 1, 2024.

此外，智利中央銀行推出了 FCIC 計劃，作為銀行在疫情期間促進貸款的融資工具，該計劃於 2024 年 3 月 30 日至 7 月 1 日期間到期。

Both these factors contributed to high levels of liquidity. Due to the important amount of available financing, specifically from total deposits together with a weak lending activity, we increased the volume of financial instruments on our balance sheet.

這兩個因素都導致了高流動性。由於可用融資量很大，特別是存款總額加上貸款活動疲軟，我們增加了資產負債表上的金融工具數量。

The rise in current account deposits reached 68% in 2021, as shown on the chart to the right. This growth in demand deposits allowed us to promptly benefit from the hikes in interest rates, given the contribution of noninterest-bearing deposits to the funding cost. However, as rates and inflation rose, demand deposits gradually normalize, as customers pursued to generate income from these funds.

2021年經常帳戶存款增幅達68%，如右圖所示。鑑於無息存款對融資成本的貢獻，活期存款的成長使我們能夠迅速從利率上漲中受益。然而，隨著利率和通貨膨脹的上升，活期存款逐漸正常化，因為客戶追求從這些資金中賺取收入。

Today, demand deposits as a percentage of total deposits and as a percentage of total loans have returned to levels similar to those we had before these events unfolded.

如今，活期存款佔存款總額的百分比和占貸款總額的百分比已恢復到與這些事件發生之前相似的水平。

Consequently, the reductions in the monetary policy rate have reverted to the norm and their cost of funds is decreasing swiftly on the grounds of the repricing of time deposits that became the main source of funding on the balance sheet.

因此，貨幣政策利率下調已回歸常態，資金成本因定期存款重新定價而迅速下降，而定期存款已成為資產負債表上的主要資金來源。

The downward evolution in our core funding cost is expected to continue in 2024 as long as interest rates decline, which, in conjunction with improved lending spreads and a more positively sloped yield curve, will allow us to partially offset the decline in net interest income coming from the reduction in financial instruments. This is due to the fact that our excess liquidity will begin to gradually decrease in 2024, and we will have to move our fund from financial instruments to fund our loan portfolio.

只要利率下降，我們的核心融資成本預計將在 2024 年繼續下降，再加上貸款利差改善和收益率曲線傾斜更積極，將使我們能夠部分抵消未來淨利息收入的下降來自金融工具的減少。這是因為我們的過剩流動性將在2024年開始逐漸減少，我們將不得不將資金從金融工具轉移到為我們的貸款組合提供資金。

Despite this lower liquidity level, we will remain well above the regulatory limit, ensuring financial stability and the soundness of our bank, as shown on the chart on the bottom left.

儘管流動性水平較低，但我們仍將遠高於監管限額，以確保金融穩定和銀行的穩健性，如左下圖所示。

Regarding our exposure to inflation, our net asset exposure stands at CLP 8 trillion as of December 2023. The increase in the UF GAP has been mainly driven by our assessment of inflationary pressures in the short term, all the while maintaining a balanced risk return profile.

關於我們的通膨風險，截至2023年12月，我們的淨資產風險為8兆智利比索。UF GAP的增加主要是由於我們對短期通膨壓力的評估，同時保持平衡的風險回報狀況。

It's worth noting that approximately CLP 5 trillion of this UF GAP is structural, as it is linked to long-term assets in which we invest our shareholders' equity to keep it hedged from inflation while earning interest rates.

值得注意的是，UF GAP 中大約有 5 兆智利比索是結構性的，因為它與長期資產相關，我們將股東權益投資於長期資產，以在賺取利率的同時對沖通膨。

The remaining part of the UF GAP is related to the directional positions taken by treasury area, to capitalize on short-term shifts in market expectations related to funding rates and inflation.

UF GAP 的其餘部分與財務領域採取的定向頭寸有關，以利用與融資利率和通膨相關的市場預期的短期變化。

Based on this view, our structural UF GAP has a strong business fundamental that has permitted us to profit from long-term asset exposures and reinforce our capital base.

基於這一觀點，我們的結構性 UF GAP 擁有強大的業務基礎，使我們能夠從長期資產風險中獲利並鞏固我們的資本基礎。

Please turn to Slide 16 to discuss our strong capital. We ended the year with a Basel Ratio of 17.5%. Our capital path of our CET1 over the past few years has also clearly outperformed both of our main competitors, as displayed on the chart on the bottom left. This has positioned us as the leading bank to meet and adapt to new regulatory requirements.

請參閱投影片 16 來討論我們雄厚的資本。年底，我們的巴塞爾比率為 17.5%。過去幾年我們的 CET1 資本路徑也明顯優於我們兩個主要的競爭對手，如左下圖所示。這使我們成為滿足和適應新監管要求的領先銀行。

As shown throughout this presentation, we have a unique position of high returns, high net income and high CET1. We have achieved this by focusing on customers' needs and finding the right balance between risk and return. This has enabled us to grow our portfolio and bottom line in a sustainable way.

正如整個簡報所示，我們擁有高回報、高淨利潤和高 CET1 的獨特地位。我們透過專注於客戶的需求並在風險和回報之間找到適當的平衡來實現這一目標。這使我們能夠以可持續的方式擴大我們的投資組合和利潤。

Moreover, we have been able to keep offering a compelling dividend without compromising this leadership position, while keeping the largest margin of capital above the regulatory limits to comply with Basel III regulations.

此外，我們能夠在不損害這一領先地位的情況下繼續提供引人注目的股息，同時將最大資本利潤率保持在監管限制之上，以符合巴塞爾協議 III 的規定。

It's also worth mentioning that in January 2023, the Chilean regulator released a reference rate for additional capital associated with Pillar 2 for 9 local banks, including us. The reference charge is imposed to us was 0.5% of our risk-weighted assets, which should gradually be fulfilled over a period of 4 years, at a 25% rate per year beginning to June 30, 2024.

另外值得一提的是，2023年1月，智利監理機構發布了包括我們在內的9家當地銀行與第二支柱相關的額外資本參考利率。對我們徵收的參考費用是我們風險加權資產的0.5%，應在4年內逐步履行，從2024年6月30日開始，每年以25%的比例履行。

This charge is derived from our exposure to long-term interest rate risk in the banking book as measured with the CMF standard model. It is important to note that our long-term interest rate risk in the banking book is primarily driven by a structural UF GAP, as mentioned earlier, has a robust business fundamental in the long run and has allowed us to benefit from economic dynamics.

此費用源自於我們使用 CMF 標準模型衡量的銀行帳戶長期利率風險敞口。值得注意的是，我們銀行帳簿中的長期利率風險主要是由結構性UF缺口所驅動的，如前所述，從長遠來看，它具有穩健的業務基礎，使我們能夠從經濟動態中受益。

I would like to highlight that we currently have a significant gap over the internal and regulatory thresholds to meet this additional requirement, a countercyclical buffer set by the Central Bank in May 2023 and the increasing limits scheduled as part of the implementation of Basel III. The current limits and the evolution over the next years are presented in the table on the right.

我想強調的是，我們目前在滿足這一額外要求、央行於2023 年5 月設定的反週期緩衝以及作為實施巴塞爾協議III 的一部分而計劃增加的限額方面，在內部和監管門檻方面存在巨大差距。右表列出了目前的限制和未來幾年的演變。

Also, it's important to take into consideration that as part of the guidelines set by our Board on capital (inaudible), we managed internal buffers that reasonably overcome both countercyclical buffer and the Pillar 2 charge, so we feel very confident this doesn't represent a significant issue that could restrict our organic growth in the coming years. Please turn to Slide 17.

此外，重要的是要考慮到，作為董事會制定的資本指導方針的一部分（聽不清），我們管理的內部緩衝合理地克服了反週期緩衝和第二支柱費用，因此我們非常有信心這並不代表這是一個可能限制我們未來幾年有機成長的重大問題。請翻到投影片 17。

Core expected credit losses are in the process of normalization. This quarter, credit losses reached CLP 128 billion, CLP 5 billion above 1 year ago, without establishing additional provisions in the fourth quarter of 2023.

核心預期信用損失正在正常化。本季信貸損失達 1,280 億智利比索，較一年前增加 50 億智利比索，且未在 2023 年第四季制定額外撥備。

For the full year, we posted CLP 361 billion of credit expenses, down 17% from a year ago. However, when we exclude additional provisions, the normalization of our portfolio is very clear when compared to the low levels of core provisions in 2022, attributable to a period of high liquidity that maintain risk indicators unsustainably low.

全年，我們公佈的信貸支出為 3,610 億中幣，比去年同期下降 17%。然而，當我們排除額外準備金時，與2022 年核心準備金的低水平相比，我們的投資組合的正常化非常明顯，這是由於一段時期的高流動性導致風險指標維持在不可持續的低水平。

Specifically, this rise has mostly been related to the lower payment capacity among retail banking customers and some specific wholesale banking clients for which we have seen a worsened financial condition. Nevertheless, the increase in credit risk expenses was significantly lower than those posted by our main peers, thanks to our superior credit risk management and a higher quality portfolio.

具體來說，這一成長主要與零售銀行客戶和一些特定批發銀行客戶的支付能力較低有關，我們發現這些客戶的財務狀況惡化。儘管如此，由於我們卓越的信用風險管理和更高品質的投資組合，信用風險費用的增幅明顯低於主要同業。

The charts on this slide show how our portfolio and our risk management culture stands out from their peers. We have the best portfolio quality, the highest coverage ratio of 2.7x, when taking into account additional provisions that totaled CLP 700 billion, as the charts to the right show. This puts us in a better position than our peers, if the economy does not keep improving.

這張投影片上的圖表顯示了我們的投資組合和風險管理文化如何在同行中脫穎而出。如右圖所示，考慮到總額為 7,000 億智利比索的額外撥備，我們擁有最佳的投資組合品質和最高的 2.7 倍覆蓋率。如果經濟不持續改善，這將使我們比同行處於更好的地位。

Finally, we need to emphasize how important our risk management practices are for our profitability. This is a crucial area where we have outperformed our competitors in the past, as you can see in the chart on the bottom right. And we expect to continue doing so in the future.

最後，我們需要強調風險管理實踐對於我們的獲利能力有多重要。正如右下角的圖表所示，這是我們過去表現優於競爭對手的關鍵領域。我們預計未來將繼續這樣做。

We have increased our leadership over our peers since 2021, even though we have a much higher coverage ratio, showing our outstanding ability to run our business.

自2021年以來，儘管我們的覆蓋率要高得多，但我們相對於同行的領先地位有所提高，顯示出我們卓越的業務經營能力。

Also, I would like to stress that noncredit-related risks, we are very consistent with no material exposures or volatile behavior and managing exposures to derivatives or debt securities in the trading or in the banking book. Likewise, we are one of the soundest banks in terms of liquidity management. Please turn to Slide 18.

另外，我想強調，對於非信用相關風險，我們非常一致地認為沒有重大風險敞口或波動行為，並在交易或銀行帳戶中管理衍生性商品或債務證券的風險敞口。同樣，我們是流動性管理最健全的銀行之一。請翻到幻燈片 18。

Our expenses increased 12% year-on-year. This increase is mainly due to the high inflation that we experienced in 2022 of 13% and still high inflation of 4.8% in 2023, affecting our cost base. It's important to highlight that most of the expense line items, including salaries are tied to CPI.

我們的費用年增12%。這一增長主要是由於我們在 2022 年經歷了 13% 的高通膨，並且 2023 年仍處於 4.8% 的高通膨，影響了我們的成本基礎。需要強調的是，包括薪資在內的大多數費用項目都與消費者物價指數掛鉤。

We also incurred greater severance payments and higher costs related to the acceleration of deferred costs associated with the former collective bargain agreements, due to the negotiation of a new agreement before the expiration of the prior one. As for the rest, the greater expenses are mainly tied to a rise in IT expenses related to software licensing, data processing services and the amortization of intangible assets.

由於在上一份協議到期之前就新協議進行談判，我們還支付了更多的遣散費和與前集體談判協議相關的遞延成本加速相關的更高成本。至於其餘費用，支出增加主要與軟體授權、資料處理服務和無形資產攤銷相關的IT費用增加有關。

In addition, we incurred higher expenses resulting from the relocation of part of our ATM network as we entered into a new alliance with a local retailer, which coupled with higher expenses that stemmed up from the implementation o VAT in services starting January 23, according to the last tax reform.

此外，由於我們與當地零售商建立了新的聯盟，我們的部分 ATM 網路搬遷，再加上 1 月 23 日起實施服務增值稅而導致費用增加，因此產生了更高的費用。最後的稅制改革。

In terms of efficiencies, we reached a cost-to-income ratio of 37% in the fourth quarter when compared to our peers. We continue to lead and have widened the gap in efficiency, as shown on the chart to the right. Our strong emphasis on enhancing cost controls, increasing productivity and applying technology to improve our business management should keep enabling us to achieve excellent results in terms of efficiency.

在效率方面，與同業相比，我們第四季的成本收入比達到了 37%。我們繼續領先並擴大了效率差距，如右圖所示。我們對加強成本控制、提高生產力和應用技術改善業務管理的高度重視，應該使我們能夠在效率方面持續取得優異的成績。

However, we acknowledge that our present level of efficiency has largely been influenced by the impact of market factors that temporarily boosted our top line. Nonetheless, we are confident that we will maintain sustainable levels below 42% in the medium term. And for 2024, we expect a cost-to-income ratio of around 40%. Please turn to Slide 19.

然而，我們承認，我們目前的效率水準在很大程度上受到暫時提高我們收入的市場因素的影響。儘管如此，我們有信心在中期內將永續水準維持在 42% 以下。到 2024 年，我們預計成本收入比將達到 40% 左右。請翻到投影片 19。

The Chilean economy is poised for a rebound in 2024, moving out of a period of stagnation in to one of growth. With an expected growth of 1.5% alongside a projected stabilization of the CPI and interest rates at 3% and 4.5%, respectively.

智利經濟預計在 2024 年反彈，擺脫停滯期，進入成長期。預計將成長 1.5%，同時 CPI 和利率預計分別穩定在 3% 和 4.5%。

In this context, the Chilean financial sector has a promising outlook of business and consumer confidence rebound, thanks to lower risks.

在此背景下，由於風險較低，智利金融業的商業和消費者信心反彈前景看好。

With respect to Banco de Chile, we have successfully addressed these challenging times, not just maintaining their leadership position, but by also excelling across key metrics such as profitability, operating revenues, asset quality, efficiency and capitalization. Our robust risk management and our commitment to ESG have also distinguished us in the [Lion] American banking landscape.

就智利銀行而言，我們成功應對了這些充滿挑戰的時期，不僅保持了其領導地位，而且在盈利能力、營業收入、資產品質、效率和資本化等關鍵指標上也表現出色。我們穩健的風險管理和對 ESG 的承諾也使我們在美國銀行業中脫穎而出。

Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, Banco de Chile is well positioned to capitalize on the economic upturn, especially with our superior capital position. We aim to further enhance our operational efficiencies and to seize new opportunities that align with our strategic goals.

展望 2024 年及以後，智利銀行處於有利地位，可以利用經濟好轉的機會，尤其是憑藉我們優越的資本地位。我們的目標是進一步提高營運效率並抓住符合我們策略目標的新機會。

With a focus on sustainable growth, we are aiming for a long-term ROE of approximately 18%, reflecting the confidence in our continued success and leadership in the industry.

著眼於永續成長，我們的目標是實現約 18% 的長期 ROE，反映了我們對持續成功和產業領導地位的信心。

Thank you for listening. And if you have any questions, we would be happy to answer them.

感謝您的聆聽。如果您有任何疑問，我們很樂意回答。

Thank you very much for the presentation. I will now be moving to the Q&A part of the call. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mr. Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

非常感謝您的介紹。我現在將進入電話會議的問答部分。 （操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的Tito Labarta先生。

Pablo, Rodrigo, I guess, on the long-term ROE of 18%, just given the capital that you have, does that assume that the capital ratio will remain around the current levels? Do you see room to pay additional dividends from here? Just what's the right level of capital to consider with that 18% ROE?

巴布羅、羅德里戈，我想，在 18% 的長期 ROE 上，只要考慮到你們擁有的資本，這是否假設資本比率將保持在當前水準附近？您認為這裡還有支付額外股息的空間嗎？對於 18% 的股本回報率，需要考慮多少資本水準是合適的？

Thanks, Tito. Well, the ROE, as we've mentioned in the past, we think is around -- in the baseline scenario for the economy of 3% inflation rates at the long-term level of around 3.75%, so it's the Central Bank and Chile growing at around the 1.5% to 2% level.

謝謝，蒂托。嗯，正如我們過去提到的，我們認為 ROE 大約是在 3% 經濟通膨率的基準情境中，長期水準約為 3.75%，所以是央行和智利成長率約為 1.5% 至 2%。

In the long term should generate a good level or a decent level of growth of loans. And this should all translate into a bottom line of around 18%, we believe. Some years, it could be a little bit higher, others it could be lower depending on market factors in the economy, but we think with this level of capital, we're comfortable and we can have achieved this level of 18% ROE.

從長遠來看，應該會產生良好水平或體面水平的貸款成長。我們相信，這一切都應該轉化為 18% 左右的底線。有些年份，它可能會高一點，有些年份可能會低一點，這取決於經濟中的市場因素，但我們認為，有了這個水準的資本，我們就可以達到 18% 的 ROE 水準。

Next question comes from Mr. Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ernesto Gabilondo 先生。

Rodrigo and Pablo, my first question is on loan growth. So given that the economy is gradually recovering, and we are starting to see the possibility for the consumer lending activity to start picking up, we're seeing lower rates, lower inflation, no longer having excess of liquidity. So just wondering if there could be upside risk for loan growth and especially for the consumer segment?

羅德里戈和巴勃羅，我的第一個問題是關於貸款成長。因此，考慮到經濟正在逐漸復甦，我們開始看到消費貸款活動開始回升的可能性，我們看到利率下降、通膨下降，流動性不再過剩。因此，我想知道貸款成長是否有上行風險，特別是對於消費領域？

My second question is on your dividend payout ratio. So we saw that you are proposing a dividend payout ratio of 66%. So we continue to see that Banco de Chile has a very strong capital ratio. So just wondering why you didn't pay again the 80% as of last year? I don't know if it was to be conservative because of the new capital buffer. Any insight will be very helpful.

我的第二個問題是關於你們的股利支付率。所以我們看到你們提議的股利支付率為66%。因此，我們繼續看到智利銀行擁有非常強大的資本比率。所以只是想知道為什麼你不再支付去年的80%？我不知道是否因為新的資本緩衝而變得保守。任何見解都會非常有幫助。

And for my last question is on the payment of the FDIC credit line. How should we think about the impact after paying the credit line? I think this could imply a lower investment yield by the reduction of the securities. And also, how should we think about this impact taking place? Should it be on net interest income or in financial results? Any insight also will be very helpful.

我的最後一個問題是關於 FDIC 信貸額度的支付。我們該如何看待支付信用額度後的影響？我認為這可能意味著證券減少導致投資收益率下降。另外，我們該如何看待這種影響的發生？應該是淨利息收入還是財務表現？任何見解也將非常有幫助。

Thanks, Ernesto. In terms of your first question, in 2023, as you know, we grew around 2.5% year-on-year, and this was driven mainly by the retail sector, right? Our retail segments, consumer loans growing a little bit above 7%, mortgage loans, almost 8%. But the commercial loan area growing below minus 1.5% around there.

謝謝，埃內斯托。關於你的第一個問題，如你所知，2023年我們比去年同期成長了2.5%左右，這主要是由零售業推動的，對吧？我們的零售領域，消費貸款成長略高於 7%，抵押貸款成長近 8%。但商業貸款面積成長低於-1.5%。

So it really depends for the next 2 years or the next year, the confidence from consumers and businesses and how this level of growth will be. What we've seen is a weak demand today from our customers, and that's translated into this weaker loan growth, especially in commercial loans.

因此，這實際上取決於未來兩年或明年消費者和企業的信心以及這種成長水平將如何。我們看到，今天客戶的需求疲軟，轉化為貸款成長疲軟，尤其是商業貸款。

If we look at what we're expecting in our baseline scenario, we see Chile growing around the 1.5% for next year -- sorry, for this year, 2024. And in terms of growth, it's around the 5%, 6% level for us in nominal terms. And what's driving that loan growth, we're seeing the areas of, again, the retail segments, which are growing closer to that 6% level, while the commercial loan segment is growing probably below the 5% level, with the recovery in SME lending, which has been very penetrated in the recent period because of all of these government guaranteed loans.

如果我們看看我們在基準情境中的預期，我們會看到智利明年的成長率約為 1.5%——抱歉，今年是 2024 年。就成長率而言，約為 5%、6% 的水平對於我們來說名義上的。推動貸款成長的因素是，我們再次看到零售領域的成長接近 6% 的水平，而隨著中小企業的復甦，商業貸款領域的成長可能低於 5% 的水平由於所有這些政府擔保貸款，貸款在最近一段時間已經非常滲透。

So there's an upside risk that this could improve. It will really depend on the cycle of economic situation, if there's any surprises in terms of better job creation, economic activity, investment, FDI, that could be a possibility. But those are our numbers in their baseline scenario.

因此，這種情況存在改善的上行風險。這實際上取決於經濟狀況的周期，如果在創造更好的就業機會、經濟活動、投資、外國直接投資方面出現任何意外，那可能是可能的。但這些是我們在基準情境下的數字。

For the FCIC and basically NIM, what we see is that the NIM, there's different positive and negative pressures for us. For 2023, we ended the year at almost 4.5%. What drove that was obviously a higher level of liquidity, especially from different types of funding deposits, this FCIC funding. And because we had this higher level of liquidity that we couldn't lend out because what I mentioned about the demand, the extra deposits that we had on hand, was invested in financial instruments.

對於 FCIC 和基本上 NIM 來說，我們看到 NIM 對我們來說有不同的正面和負面壓力。 2023 年，我們的年增率接近 4.5%。推動這一趨勢的顯然是更高的流動性，特別是來自不同類型的資金存款，即 FCIC 資金。因為我們擁有更高水準的流動性，所以我們無法放貸，因為我提到的需求，我們手頭上的額外存款被投資於金融工具。

So in 2024, when this comes due, the lending from the Central Bank, we have to figure out a way on how to pay that, and that way will be with the reduction of our financial instruments to pay or to fund -- the low-end of the FCIC was funding.

因此，到 2024 年，當中央銀行的貸款到期時，我們必須找到一種支付方式，而這種方式將減少我們用於支付或融資的金融工具——低利率- FCIC 的資金結束。

So this will have a negative impact in terms of -- this is a negative factor in terms of NIM, but this is -- it's more important to mention the positive factors that are occurring in 2024, which is an improvement in the lending spreads of the bank as well as an improvement in the reduction of the cost of funds of time deposits as well as a continued good activity in terms of demand deposits, which are funding our loans.

因此，這將產生負面影響——就淨利差而言，這是一個負面因素，但更重要的是要提及 2024 年出現的積極因素，即貸款利差的改善。銀行的改善以及定期存款資金成本降低的改善，以及為我們的貸款提供資金的活期存款的持續良好活動。

So net-net, what we're seeing for the net interest margin for 2024 is something around 10 basis point drop year-on-year because we have all these other positive factors. And not to mention that we also have the positive factors that financial instruments are coming due, and these are being repriced at a higher level as well.

因此，淨利率來看，我們看到 2024 年的淨利差年減約 10 個基點，因為我們有所有其他正面因素。更不用說我們還有金融工具即將到期的積極因素，而這些工具也正在以更高的水平重新定價。

And for the capital, I'll hand it over to Daniel Galarce.

至於首都，我會把它交給丹尼爾·加拉斯。

Yes. Regarding dividend payout ratios, the effective dividend payout that is proposed to the shareholders' meeting or to ordinary shareholders in March, is actually 66%. We have to consider that Basel III is still being implemented. There are some room or gap regarding how the models for measuring diverse risk will be implemented and will be accepted by the CMF. So basically, it is a kind of buffer that we can have in the future in order to continue bolstering our capital base.

是的。就股息支付率而言，3月向股東大會或普通股股東提議的有效股息支付率實際上為66%。我們必須考慮到巴塞爾協議III仍在實施中。關於衡量多樣化風險的模型如何實施以及如何被 CMF 接受，也存在一些空間或差距。所以基本上，這是我們未來可以擁有的一種緩衝，以便繼續增強我們的資本基礎。

Our next question comes from Mr. Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的尤里‧費爾南德斯先生。

I had a question regarding operating expenses. It was a little bit high this quarter, right? Up 20% year-over-over. And you mentioned like some collective agreements, some severance package. Can you provide more color on this and how this should track? Because the impression I had is that you are potentially, I don't know, front-loading some expenses in '23. So this may -- these are tailwind for '24. So just would like to hear more details on expenses.

我有一個關於營運費用的問題。這個季度有點高，對吧？較去年同期成長20%。你提到了一些集體協議、一些遣散費。您能否對此提供更多說明以及如何追蹤？因為我的印像是，我不知道，你有可能在 23 年提前支付一些費用。所以這可能是 24 年的順風車。所以只是想聽聽更多有關費用的細節。

Thanks. So in terms of expenses for 2023, what we've seen is an expense growth, which grew in the full year around 12%, a little bit higher than 12%, and this was largely due to some key factors, which was inflation and IT expenses.

謝謝。因此，就 2023 年的支出而言，我們看到的是支出成長，全年成長約 12%，略高於 12%，這主要是由於一些關鍵因素，即通貨膨脹和資訊科技費用。

In the fourth quarter, there were some additional expenses like the agreement with the unions to agree before the end of this contract. So what was left had the pass-through income because this is accrued on a monthly basis with the length of the contract. So this was an additional expense. We had some additional bonuses and some other items there.

第四季還有一些額外的費用，例如在合約結束前與工會達成的協議。所以剩下的就是轉嫁收入，因為這是依照合約期限按月累積的。所以這是一筆額外的費用。我們在那裡有一些額外的獎金和一些其他物品。

But if we look more so on the medium term, what's happening in our view is inflation, which is very important for our cost base. The high inflation of 2022, the still high level of 2023 affected 2023, but this is normalized in 2024. So this shouldn't be such an important impact for next year as well.

但如果我們更著眼於中期，我們認為正在發生的是通貨膨脹，這對我們的成本基礎非常重要。 2022年的高通膨，2023年仍然較高的水平影響了2023年，但這種情況在2024年已經正常化。所以這對明年應該不會有如此重要的影響。

We have many different projects in the pipeline, which we're improving in terms of productivity efficiency. So the incremental improvement of all these projects should continue to bear fruit and maintain our cost base under control. And what we're seeing is for 2024, an efficiency ratio of 40%, costs growing more or less in line with inflation. And in the long term, what we expect with a normalized operating income and normalized level of cost, an efficiency ratio that should be less than 42%.

我們有許多不同的專案正在進行中，我們正在提高生產力效率。因此，所有這些專案的漸進式改進應該會繼續取得成果，並保持我們的成本基礎受到控制。我們看到的是，到 2024 年，效率將達到 40%，成本的成長或多或少與通貨膨脹一致。從長遠來看，我們預期在營業收入和成本水準正常化的情況下，效率比率應低於 42%。

Pablo, so basically cost in '24 inflation like? And just the first Q, coming back to this, because I think you mentioned CLP 22 billion on one-off kind of like onetime events. Isn't this like anticipating expenses for '23? Sorry, '24 and '23?

巴勃羅，那麼 24 年通貨膨脹的成本基本上是怎麼樣的？回到第一個問題，因為我認為您在一次性事件中提到了 220 億智利比索。這不是像預測23年的費用嗎？抱歉，'24 和 '23？

Well, for example, the expenses for the contract, the bonus for the unions, it's accrued on a monthly basis. So if we sign off on earlier, we have to pass that through income, all the months have to come due. So it's -- for example, that would be something that's not accrued. It would be a double accrual.

嗯，比如說合約的費用，工會的獎金，都是按月累積的。因此，如果我們提前簽字，我們必須透過收入來傳遞，所有月份都必須到期。因此，例如，這將是不會累積的東西。這將是雙重應計。

Our next question comes from Ms. Neha Agarwala from HSBC.

我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Neha Agarwala 女士。

Congratulations on the results. A quick question on the impact from the interchange cap for '24 and '25. I'm not sure if you mentioned that and apologies if I missed it. So if you could reiterate that.

祝賀結果。關於 24 和 25 年互換上限影響的簡單問題。我不確定你是否提到過這一點，如果我錯過了，我深表歉意。如果你能重申一下的話。

And my second question would be on -- we recently had one of the Chilean banks, the AT1 issuance, is that something on the radar for the Banco de Chile? Could we see that in the coming months?

我的第二個問題是──我們最近發行了一家智利銀行 AT1，這是智利銀行關注的事情嗎？我們能在未來幾個月看到這一點嗎？

And lastly, on asset quality, is there any trend that you would like to highlight in terms of asset quality performance for 2024?

最後，關於資產質量，您想強調一下2024年資產品質表現的趨勢嗎？

In terms of the fee growth and the interchange related to the fee growth. In 2023, we had fees, if we were to adjust for reclassifications on the balance sheet. Fees grew around 6% year-on-year. In terms of the drivers of this, we have insurance, transactional product services, including credit cards, which grew substantially. We had a strong improvement in credit cards despite a slight reduction in the interchange fee at the end of the year, because of a rise in transactions of 14% because of individuals changing their preferences to paying with cash to use more digital and noncash payment methods.

就費用增長以及與費用增長相關的交換而言。 2023 年，如果我們要根據資產負債表上的重新分類進行調整，我們將收取費用。費用較去年同期成長約6%。就其驅動因素而言，我們的保險、包括信用卡在內的交易產品服務大幅成長。儘管年底交換費略有下降，但我們的信用卡業務仍取得了強勁的進步，因為個人改變了現金支付偏好，轉而使用更多數字和非現金支付方式，交易量增長了 14% 。

So this is very important when looking at the interchange, because not only is there is a reduction in the fees coming up or already implemented one more at the end of the year. But at the same time, what we're seeing is a strong growth in terms of transactions, which that will partially offset the reduction in the fees.

因此，在考慮交換時，這一點非常重要，因為不僅即將到來的費用會減少，或者已經在年底再次實施了費用。但同時，我們看到交易量強勁成長，這將部分抵銷費用的減少。

So an update on the fees. Debit cards go from 0.6%, in October, they went down to 0.5% interchange fees, and in October of 2024, they dropped to 0.35%. In credit cards, it grows from 1.48% to 1.14% in October 2023, and in October 2024 to 0.8%.

所以更新一下費用。簽帳卡的兌換費從 0.6% 降至 10 月的 0.5%，到 2024 年 10 月又降至 0.35%。信用卡方面，2023 年 10 月從 1.48% 成長至 1.14%，2024 年 10 月成長至 0.8%。

So this has an impact in terms of fees. But what is important to mention that these are partially offset by an improvement of our growth in the number of transactions. And at the same time, adjustments on another expenses related to loyalty programs, et cetera, that reduces the net cost of this change.

所以這會對費用產生影響。但值得一提的是，這些都被我們交易數量成長的改善所部分抵消。同時，對與忠誠度計劃等相關的其他費用進行調整，從而降低了這項變化的淨成本。

The other question in terms of asset quality is -- what we're seeing in terms of asset quality is a normalization from the very low rates that we've had in the past few years. So if we look at this 2023 versus 2022, and we exclude additional provisions, we see a normalization, reaching a cost of risk of almost 1% and NPLs of 1.4%, which is very good considering the cycle and the high inflation that we've had during the period, which has affected the purchasing power of consumers and also of businesses areas that we're looking at, and we're monitoring is obviously the typical ones. That's a green in Chile. We have the construction area, the real estate, not really the construction, more of the real estate. We have also SMEs, which is always an area that's a little bit more cyclical, and individuals, especially those in the middle and the more susceptible to inflation.

資產品質方面的另一個問題是——我們在資產品質方面看到的是過去幾年的極低利率的正常化。因此，如果我們對比 2023 年和 2022 年，排除額外準備金，我們會看到正常化，風險成本接近 1%，不良貸款達到 1.4%，考慮到我們的週期和高通膨，這是非常好的。在此期間，這影響了消費者的購買力，也影響了我們正在關注的商業領域，我們正在監控的顯然是典型的。這是智利的綠色。我們有建築面積，房地產，不是真正的建築，更多的是房地產。我們還有中小企業，它總是一個更具週期性的領域，還有個人，特別是那些處於中等水平且更容易受到通貨膨脹影響的個人。

What we've seen is nothing that we're too concerned of. We think that we're in a level more or less -- this level of 1.4% is reasonable, move up or down a little bit in the next months. We have to see how the economy evolves. And in terms of the guidance for the for this year of around reaching at most around 1.2%, it could be lower depending on the evolution of the economy of the baseline scenario unemployment, how this year will evolve. And in the long term, with a similar mix of loan portfolio that we had prior to the pandemic level of around 1.2% to reasonable.

我們所看到的並不是我們太擔心的。我們認為我們或多或少處於一個水平——1.4%的水平是合理的，在接下來的幾個月裡會略有上升或下降。我們必須看看經濟如何發展。就今年的指導而言，最高可達 1.2% 左右，具體數字可能會更低，具體取決於基準情境失業率的經濟發展以及今年將如何發展。從長期來看，我們的貸款組合組合與疫情爆發前的水準類似，約為 1.2%，屬於合理水準。

And the third question, I don't remember what it was.

第三個問題，我不記得是什麼了。

AT1.

AT1。

I'll pass that to Daniel Galarce.

我會轉達給 Daniel Galarce。

Yes. Well, we haven't issued any AT1 instrument yet. Basically, we are seeing some possibilities here in Chile and also abroad but, to be honest, given our very strong CET1, we don't believe it's necessary yet. And in addition, we have a lot of room with respect to regulatory limits. So we are not yet considering an specific issuance even in Chile or overseas.

是的。嗯，我們還沒有發行任何 AT1 儀器。基本上，我們在智利和國外看到了一些可能性，但說實話，鑑於我們非常強大的 CET1，我們認為目前還沒有必要。此外，我們在監管限制方面還有很大的空間。因此，我們還沒有考慮在智利或海外進行具體發行。

Our final question comes from Mr. Andres Soto from Santander.

我們的最後一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的安德烈斯·索托先生。

My question is related to the consumer lending outlook. When we look at Chile, over the past few years, this has been an area where we have seen continued weakness in terms of loan growth. And now with lower interest rates, lower inflation, you will have imagined the [issue] have translated into a pickup in consumer loans, but your guidance is still relatively timid. So I would like to understand what prevents you from having a more aggressive guidance in terms of consumer lending?

我的問題與消費者貸款前景有關。當我們看到智利時，在過去幾年中，我們發現該地區的貸款成長持續疲軟。現在，隨著利率降低、通膨降低，你會想像這個[問題]已經轉化為消費貸款的增加，但你的指導仍然相對謹慎。所以我想了解是什麼阻礙了你們在消費貸款方面提供更積極的指導？

Well, in terms of consumer lending, our retail lending as a whole, still we have a variety of areas that is affecting loan growth. So we have unemployment level, which still is relatively high. We don't think that there is a drop destruction, but the creation is weak. We see also investment in Chile is weaker, so that's affecting retail lending as well because of the job creation. And we have a more normalized -- a normalized level of inflation, which has also obviously had an impact in the prior years, especially in terms of mortgage loans, which made those products more costly.

就消費貸款而言，我們的零售貸款作為一個整體，仍然有許多領域正在影響貸款成長。所以我們的失業率仍然相對較高。我們不認為有掉落破壞，而是創造較弱。我們也看到智利的投資疲軟，因此由於創造就業機會，這也影響了零售貸款。我們有一個更正常化的通膨水平，這在前幾年也明顯產生了影響，特別是在抵押貸款方面，這使得這些產品的成本更高。

So in general, households have less room to continue getting into that, and that's affected the demand for growth, plus the weak environment and confidence from the consumer is affecting the demand.

因此，總的來說，家庭繼續參與其中的空間較小，這影響了成長的需求，再加上疲弱的環境和消費者的信心正在影響需求。

So it's more of a demand issue than a supply issue. I would say. And what could be a driver for the future to see an improvement there and improved level of the economy, reductions of the interest rate as well, is very important, which has affected loan growth as a whole. And I would say, more or less an overall better outlook in the economy will drive the consumer loan growth.

所以這更多的是需求問題而不是供給問題。我會說。未來經濟改善、經濟水準提高以及利率降低的驅動因素非常重要，這影響了整體貸款成長。我想說，整體上更好的經濟前景或多或少將推動消費貸款的成長。

Andres, this is Rodrigo Aravena . Just let me add just a couple of things. It's very important to be aware that this recession in Chile in 2023 was a bit different compared to other crisis that we have in the country. Because this time, we had a very strong decline in domestic demand, particularly in durable consumption and other consumption areas.

安德烈斯，這是羅德里戈·阿拉維納。讓我補充幾件事。重要的是要意識到，2023 年智利的這次經濟衰退與該國其他危機有所不同。因為這一次，我們的內需下降非常厲害，特別是耐用消費和其他消費領域。

For this year, particularly in this quarter, we are expecting like a turning point in the economic cycle, since, as I said before in the presentation, today, we have a more constructive view, a much more positive view on the economy. Since we're expecting different positive factors affecting the private consumption, including, of course, the positive impact and the potential positive impact in consumer loans.

對於今年，特別是在本季度，我們預計經濟週期將出現一個轉折點，因為正如我之前在演講中所說，今天我們對經濟有更建設性、更積極的看法。因為我們預期會有不同的正面因素影響私人消費，當然包括消費貸款的正面影響和潛在的正面影響。

It's very important to remember, for example, that we are expecting a positive growth for GDP for this year and also low inflation rates, an important decline in the automate rate, higher growth and then probably a normalization as well in terms of the labor market.

例如，重要的是要記住，我們預計今年 GDP 將實現正成長，通貨膨脹率也將較低，自動化率將顯著下降，經濟成長將加快，然後勞動力市場也可能正常化。

Because when we analyze today, during the last quarters, for example, the Chilean economy had an inflation rate above the long-term level, still contractionary interest rates below trend economic growth. So that's why the main reason behind the turning point of the economics related with consumption, especially with the private consumption, we are not very optimistic about private investment. So I think that it's very important to highlight that one of the key drivers for the potential, the cyclical recovery in Chile this year is related with the total consumption, the private consumption. So that's why or where this is one of our main basis of that's why we are more positive for the year in terms of consumer loans as well.

因為當我們今天分析時，例如在最後幾個季度，智利經濟的通膨率高於長期水平，但緊縮利率仍低於趨勢經濟成長。所以這就是為什麼消費相關的經濟出現轉折點的主要原因，特別是私人消費，我們對私人投資不是很樂觀。因此，我認為非常重要的是要強調，智利今年週期性復甦潛力的關鍵驅動力之一與總消費（即私人消費）有關。這就是為什麼這是我們的主要基礎之一，這就是為什麼我們今年在消費貸款方面也更加積極。

Rodrigo, that's very helpful. And an additional question that I had was related to the additional reserves that you guys still have in the balance sheet. How should investors think about those at some point they are going to become part of your capital? Or are you still considering the possibility that they could be returned to shareholders? And under which circumstances that will be the possibility for those reserves to be an extraordinary dividend?

羅德里戈，這非常有幫助。我的另一個問題與你們資產負債表中仍然擁有的額外準備金有關。投資者應該如何看待那些在某個時候他們將成為你資本的一部分的人？或者您還在考慮將其返還給股東的可能性嗎？在什麼情況下，這些準備金有可能成為特別股利？

Thanks. Well, we have -- as you know, during the pandemic, we accumulated up to CLP 700 billion in additional provisions. So with a coverage ratio of about 2.7x. Today, we still have these additional provisions on the balance sheet. We did implement any of dividend provision, any more additional provisions in 2023.

謝謝。嗯，正如你所知，在大流行期間，我們積累了高達 7000 億智利比索的額外準備金。因此覆蓋率約為 2.7 倍。今天，我們的資產負債表上仍然有這些額外的準備金。我們確實在 2023 年實施了任何股利規定和任何其他附加規定。

Now there's no direct time line or trigger that we can mention of releasing these provisions, but what's been mentioned in the past, and it's true today is that if we don't need to do traditional provisions, a portion of these may be reversed and may be used for different purposes, but there's no clear guideline on when this will occur or the factors that would have to be occurred?

現在沒有直接的時間表或觸發器可以提到發布這些條款，但過去提到過，今天也是如此，如果我們不需要執行傳統條款，其中一部分可能會被逆轉，可能用於不同的目的，但對於何時發生這種情況或必須發生的因素沒有明確的指導方針？

Rodrigo?

羅德里戈？

Yes. So important to be aware of the still existence of source -- of uncertainty that we have in Chile today. We have different uncertainties from the rest of the world. We will know that [kind], for example, is our main 3 partner, there are some uncertainties related to the economic growth for this country for this next year.

是的。意識到今天智利仍然存在的不確定性來源非常重要。我們面臨著與世界其他地區不同的不確定性。例如，我們知道[kind]是我們的主要3個合作夥伴，該國明年的經濟成長存在一些不確定性。

Internally, we have different discussions in Chile. Probably, there's going to be discussions about taxes, pension funds. This year also there will be elections for municipal elections as well. So even though the improvement in the economic cycle, in the private consumption, in the GDP, still we have some uncertainty. So it's very important to have more visibility on that uncertainty, the potential impact in the long term of the key long-term figures that affect the banking system, in order to have a more specific time line for the potential decision to reverse some additional provisions.

在內部，我們在智利有不同的討論。可能會討論有關稅收、退休基金的問題。今年還將舉行市政選舉。因此，儘管經濟週期、私人消費、GDP有所改善，但我們仍存在一些不確定性。因此，更深入地了解這種不確定性以及影響銀行體系的關鍵長期數據的長期潛在影響非常重要，以便為撤銷某些附加條款的潛在決定制定更具體的時間表。

So today, we have a lot of uncertainty that we have to pay attention to. The main thing where we have more visibility today is that there's going to be an important improvement in the economic cycle for this year, but still with important uncertainties.

所以今天，我們有很多不確定性需要關注。今天我們更清楚的是，今年的經濟週期將出現重大改善，但仍有重要的不確定性。

Absolutely. Congratulations on the results.

絕對地。祝賀結果。

Okay. Thank you very much. We see no further questions at this point. I'll pass the line back to Banco de Chile team to conclude the call.

好的。非常感謝。目前我們沒有看到更多問題。我會將電話轉回智利銀行團隊以結束通話。

Well, thank you for joining our conference call, and we're looking forward to speaking with you for the first quarter results of 2024. Bye.

好的，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，我們期待與您討論 2024 年第一季的業績。再見。

Thank you very much. This concludes today's conference call. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you, and goodbye.

非常感謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們現在將關閉所有線路。謝謝，再見。