Banco de Chile (BCH) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Banco de Chile's first-quarter 2025 results conference call. If you need a copy of the financial management review, it is available on the company's website.

下午好，歡迎參加智利銀行 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。如果您需要財務管理評估的副本，可以在公司的網站上找到。

Today with us, we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer; Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations; and Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control & Capital.

今天與我們一起出席的有首席經濟學家兼機構關係官 Rodrigo Aravena 先生；投資者關係主管 Pablo Mejia 先生；以及財務控制與資本主管 Daniel Galarce。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded, and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次通話正在錄音，今天討論的資訊可能包括有關公司財務和經營業績的前瞻性陳述。所有預測都存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱本公司新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的詳細說明。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉給羅德里戈·阿拉維納先生。請繼續。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for joining this conference call. As usual, today, we will review the main results and advances in our strategic project during the first quarter of this year. Once again, our bank has affirmed its strong position in the Chilean banking industry, reaffirming its leadership in different areas.

大家下午好。非常感謝您參加本次電話會議。和往常一樣，今天我們將回顧今年第一季策略專案的主要成果和進展。我行再次確立了在智利銀行業中的強勢地位，重申了在不同領域的領導地位。

In the quarter, the net income was CLP329 billion, surpassing our peers and achieving an ROAE of 23%. As we will see later in this conference call, these outstanding results were explained by strong margins, improved asset quality, and enhanced efficiency levels. This performance becomes particularly important given the increased uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment due to the revised foreign trade approach adopted by the US administration, which could likely reduce the global and even local economic growth in the future.

本季淨收入為3,290億智利比索，超過同行，ROAE達23%。正如我們將在本次電話會議稍後看到的，這些出色的業績得益於強勁的利潤率、改善的資產品質和提高的效率水準。由於美國政府修改了對外貿易政策，導致宏觀經濟環境的不確定性增加，這一表現尤其重要，這可能會降低未來全球乃至當地的經濟成長。

Therefore, our solid fundamentals such as asset quality, large amount of strong provisions and a strong capital base are undoubtedly aspects that generate even greater differentiation for us, not only in Chile but also at the regional level. Before discussing in detail, the financial results of our bank, I'd like to share with you our analysis of the current macro environment.

因此，我們堅實的基本面，例如資產品質、大量強勁的撥備和強大的資本基礎，無疑是我們在智利乃至整個地區層面產生更大差異化的因素。在詳細討論我們銀行的財務表現之前，我想先與大家分享我們對當前宏觀環境的分析。

Please go to Slide number 3. The Chilean economy has shown recovery in recent quarters. As can be seen in the graph on the left of this slide, that Chile posted an important increase in the second half of 2024 with a peak in the fourth quarter when the economy grew by 4%.

請翻到幻燈片 3。近幾個季度，智利經濟呈現復甦跡象。從這張投影片左側的圖表可以看出，智利在 2024 年下半年實現了重要成長，並在第四季達到峰值，經濟成長了 4%。

As a result, the country achieved an above expectation expansion of 2.6% for the year. The breakdown of the fee as seen in the top right chart shows that domestic demand, reflecting a strong rise in the commerce sector was one of the main drivers of greater dynamism. Different factors contributed to this such as the lagged effect of interest rate cuts, the recovery of wage, employment and the temporary effect of foreign purchases in Chile.

結果，該國全年實現了高於預期的2.6%的經濟成長。右上圖的費用明細顯示，國內需求反映了商業部門的強勁成長，這是推動經濟活力增強的主要動力之一。造成這現象的因素有很多，例如降息的滯後效應、工資和就業的復甦以及外國購買智利的暫時性影響。

In addition to these figures, several leading indicators such as imports of capital and consumer goods shown in the bottom right chart are consistent with existing of favorable expectation regarding domestic demand, at least in the short term, if external risks are set aside.

除了這些數據之外，右下圖所示的資本和消費品進口等幾項領先指標也表明，如果排除外部風險，至少在短期內，國內需求存在良好的預期。

Please go to Slide 4 to analyze the evolution of inflation and interest rate. Inflation has remained above the Central Bank target of 3% since late 2020 as shown in the graph on the left. In March, annual inflation was 4.9%, a figure that although higher than the 4.5% recorded at the end of last year and the 3.7% seen a year ago, it's important to consider the figure posted this year was affected by some temporary factors.

請到投影片4分析通貨膨脹和利率的演變。如左圖所示，自 2020 年底以來，通膨率一直高於央行 3% 的目標。3月份，年通膨率為4.9%，雖然高於去年底的4.5%和去年同期的3.7%，但必須考慮到今年公佈的數據受到一些暫時性因素的影響。

Among them, the rise in energy prices which posted a 14.2% year-on-year increase with according to Central Bank estimate has contributed almost 130 basis points to annual inflation. Additionally, inflation of tradable goods went up by 5.2% year-on-year, influenced by the weakening of the Chilean pesos in 2024. Sequentially, inflation rose by 2% in the first quarter of the year.

其中，能源價格上漲，據央行估計年增14.2%，對全年通膨率貢獻了近130個基點。此外，受2024年智利比索貶值的影響，貿易商品通膨率年增5.2%。今年第一季通貨膨脹率季增2%。

However, as shown in the chart, the CPI variation, excluding volatile, is below the change in the headline measure, reflecting the existence of more moderate pressures at the core level. This reaffirms the fact that inflation has been driven by specific factors, particularly over the last quarters.

然而，如圖所示，剔除波動性因素後，CPI變化低於整體指數變化，反映出核心層面上有較溫和的壓力。這再次證實了通貨膨脹是由特定因素推動的，尤其是在過去幾個季度。

Although the recent evolution of inflation has led the Central Bank to keep the reference rate at 5% in the first quarter, it's important to consider the Chilean overnight rate has dropped the most globally from the peak of 11.25% in 2023 to the current figure, which, however, remains above neutral levels between 4% and 4.5%.

儘管近期通膨情勢的變化導致智利央行在第一季將參考利率維持在 5% 的水平，但值得注意的是，智利隔夜利率已從 2023 年 11.25% 的峰值降至目前水平，是全球降幅最大的國家，但仍高於 4% 至 4.5% 之間的中性水平。

The path followed by the reference rate has resulted in a steepened yield curve as shown in the bottom right chart, measured as the difference between the 10-year sovereign rate and the overnight rate in Chilean pesos, which should have a positive effect on banking results as bank liabilities typically reprice faster than assets due to the duration gap.

參考利率的走勢導致殖利率曲線變陡，如右下圖所示，以10年期主權利率與智利比索隔夜利率之間的差額來衡量，這應該會對銀行業績產生積極影響，因為由於期限差距，銀行負債的重新定價速度通常比資產更快。

In this regard, the yield curve is expected to become more positively sloped as the monetary policy rate converts to neutral levels by the end of this year. Notwithstanding the positive trends seen in the Chilean economy over the last quarter, the recent abrupt change in global trade conditions is something we must take into consideration, especially given the high integration of the Chilean economy with the rest of the world.

在這方面，隨著今年年底貨幣政策利率轉為中性水平，殖利率曲線預計將變得更加正向傾斜。儘管上個季度智利經濟出現了正面趨勢，但我們必須考慮到近期全球貿易狀況的突然變化，特別是考慮到智利經濟與世界其他地區的高度整合。

However, despite external risk, Chile has some differentiating strengths that could partially mitigate the potential impact of constrained global trade. Please go to Slide number 5 to analyze them. Although Chile is one of the most open economies in the region, it has a well-diversified export basket in terms of destination.

然而，儘管存在外部風險，智利仍具有一些差異化優勢，可以部分減輕全球貿易受限的潛在影響。請到投影片 5 進行分析。儘管智利是該地區最開放的經濟體之一，但其出口產品市場非常多樣化。

As can be seen in the top right chart, still has significant integration with China, a country that represents around 40% of the country's total shipments. If other Asian countries are considered, this region represents in total around 60% of Chilean exports. The US economy in turn, represents 16% of Chile total export.

從右上圖可以看出，印度仍與中國保持著密切的聯繫，中國約佔印度總出貨量的 40%。如果考慮其他亞洲國家，該地區總計佔智利出口的 60% 左右。反過來，美國經濟佔智利出口總額的16%。

It was important to mention exemptions for some relevant Chilean products, such as copper as well as lithium and good derivatives as shown in the right graph. Thus, the effective tariff rate on Chilean export is lower than the 10% rate recently imposed by the US administration. Another aspect to consider is the room to implement countercyclical measures in event of a recession.

值得一提的是，一些相關的智利產品獲得了豁免，例如銅、鋰及其良好衍生物，如右圖所示。因此，智利出口的實際關稅稅率低於美國政府近期徵收的10%的關稅稅率。另一個需要考慮的面向是，在經濟衰退的情況下實施逆週期措施的空間。

Along with the normalization of inflation, which has allowed interest rate cuts by the Central Bank, Chile has also greater capacity than other countries in the region to implement fiscal policy measures based on lower debt levels and interest rate burdens as shown in the bottom right chart. The existence of better fundamentals has been recognized globally.

隨著通貨膨脹的正常化，央行得以降低利率，智利也比該地區其他國家更有能力實施基於較低債務水準和利率負擔的財政政策措施，如右下圖所示。更好的基本面的存在已得到全球認可。

As such, the value of risky financial assets has been less affected in Chile when compared to other comparable countries. Likewise, it's worth highlighting, for instance, that the value of the peso has been less affected than other currency as the bottom left chart shows. Now I'd like to present our baseline scenario for the year 2025.

因此，與其他類似國家相比，智利風險金融資產的價值受到的影響較小。同樣，值得強調的是，例如，如左下圖所示，比索的價值受到的影響小於其他貨幣。現在我想介紹一下我們對 2025 年的基準情境。

Please go to Slide 6. We expect GDP to expand by 2% in '25. This figure has several elements to consider. First, it represents less dynamism than in 2024, partly due to the expected slowdown in the global economy, and further deceleration of some of Chile trading partners.

請轉至投影片 6。我們預計25年GDP將成長2%。這個數字有幾個因素需要考慮。首先，與2024年相比，智利的經濟成長動力減弱，部分原因是全球經濟預計放緩，以及智利一些貿易夥伴的經濟進一步減速。

The recovery in domestic demand would be the driver for GDP growth this year, which would offset a slowdown in exports. This situation would result in a slight decline in headline inflation that would end up the year below 4%. However, the forecast assumes neither a significant rebound in external inflation nor exchange rate depreciation for the rest of the year.

國內需求復甦將成為今年GDP成長的動力，抵銷出口放緩的影響。這種情況將導致整體通膨率略有下降，最終使今年的通膨率降至4%以下。不過，該預測並不認為今年剩餘時間內外部通膨會大幅反彈，匯率也不會貶值。

Under these circumstances, the Central Bank would reduce the interest rate to a neutral level of around 4.25%. Finally, it's important to take into consideration the higher uncertainty we face as well as the downside risk in terms of growth mainly due to global factors. Locally, a source of attention will be the upcoming presidential and parliamentary election in November this year.

在此情況下，央行將把利率下調至4.25%左右的中性水準。最後，重要的是要考慮到我們面臨的更高不確定性以及主要由於全球因素導致的成長下行風險。在當地，今年 11 月即將舉行的總統和國會選舉將受到關注。

Before analyzing the bank's results in detail, I'd like to share a brief analysis of trends in the banking industry. Please go to Slide 7 to discuss it. This quarter, return on average equity for the Chilean banking system was 16.5%, which is slightly higher than both previous quarter and the last year as displayed in the top left graph.

在詳細分析該銀行的業績之前，我想先對銀行業的趨勢做一個簡要的分析。請前往投影片 7 進行討論。本季度，智利銀行體系的平均股本回報率為 16.5%，如左上圖所示，略高於上一季和去年同期。

This consistent profitability can be attributed to several factors, including effective cost control, diversified income streams and stabilizing market conditions. Despite global economic challenges, financial institutions have demonstrated resilience and adaptability in a dynamic landscape. Furthermore, technological and digital advancements are optimizing operations, cutting costs and enhancing customer experience, thereby positively impacting overall financial performance.

這種持續的獲利能力可以歸因於多種因素，包括有效的成本控制、多樣化的收入來源和穩定的市場條件。儘管面臨全球經濟挑戰，金融機構在動態環境中仍展現出韌性和適應性。此外，技術和數位進步正在優化營運、降低成本並增強客戶體驗，從而對整體財務表現產生積極影響。

Regarding business volumes, as shown by the chart on the right, Chile's improved economic performance has not resulted in significant loan growth. Loans increased by 2.6% year-on-year. Mortgage were the primary contributor to this growth, rising by 6.3% year-on-year, while consumer loans increased by 5.1% during the same period. Commercially, commercial loans did not experience any growth in nominal terms.

從業務量來看，如右圖所示，智利經濟表現的改善並未帶來貸款的大幅成長。貸款年增2.6%。抵押貸款是這一增長的主要貢獻者，年增 6.3%，而同期消費貸款增長了 5.1%。從商業角度來看，商業貸款名義上沒有成長。

Weak growth in commercial loans has resulted in a change in the portfolio composition compared to prepandemic level. Currently, as shown in the chart on the bottom left, mortgage contributes 36% of total loans, up from 29% in 2019.

商業貸款成長疲軟導致投資組合構成與疫情前水準相比發生了變化。目前，如左下角圖所示，抵押貸款佔總貸款的 36%，高於 2019 年的 29%。

During the same period, commercial loans have reduced from 56% in to 52%, and the consumer portfolio has decreased from 15% to 12%. This shift in mix due to weak demand for consumer and commercial loans led bank to maintain lower risk portfolio, preventing a significant rise in NPLs as shown in the chart on the bottom right.

同期，商業貸款從56%降至52%，消費貸款從15%降至12%。由於消費者和商業貸款需求疲軟，這種組合變化使得銀行維持較低風險組合，從而防止不良貸款大幅增加，如右下圖所示。

Next, Pablo will share information regarding Banco de Chile development and financial results.

接下來，Pablo將分享智利銀行的發展和財務表現。

Thank you, Rodrigo. Let's begin by turning to Slide number 9, which provides a comprehensive view of our strategic framework and midterm targets. Together, they define our road map for sustainable value creation. On the left side of the slide is our strategy, structured around three key components: our strategic plan, our strategic pillars and our purpose.

謝謝你，羅德里戈。讓我們先翻到第 9 張投影片，它全面介紹了我們的策略架構和中期目標。它們共同定義了我們永續價值創造的路線圖。投影片左側是我們的策略，圍繞著三個關鍵組成部分：我們的策略計畫、我們的策略支柱和我們的目標。

Our strategic plan is built on six areas aimed at transforming the way we operate and serve our customers. These initiatives are interconnected and designed to make us more agile, competitive and responsive to the evolving needs of our clients. Supporting this plan are our strategic pillars, which guide us on how we execute our strategy with efficiency and productivity through collaboration and always with a customer-first mindset.

我們的策略計劃基於六個領域，旨在改變我們的營運和服務客戶的方式。這些措施相互關聯，旨在讓我們更有彈性、更具競爭力，並更能滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。支撐這項計畫的是我們的策略支柱，它指導我們如何透過協作並始終以客戶至上的心態高效、有效率地執行我們的策略。

These pillars ensure that our operations, culture and decision-making processes remain aligned with performance and innovation. And finally, at the center of our strategic plan and pillars is our purpose. We aim to support Chile's growth and its citizens and businesses, enhancing our competitive advantages through long-term trust and strong relationships.

這些支柱確保我們的營運、文化和決策過程與績效和創新保持一致。最後，我們的策略計畫和支柱的核心是我們的宗旨。我們的目標是支持智利的發展及其公民和企業，透過長期信任和牢固的關係來增強我們的競爭優勢。

On the right side of the slide are our midterm targets, show our strategic goals and commitment to measurable results. Return on average capital and reserves, we aim to be the leading bank among peers. Cost-to-income ratio, we're targeting the ratio below 42%, and we're currently operating at 36.1% outperforming expectations. This result not only is from a strong revenue generation but also disciplined cost management and strong operating income.

投影片的右邊是我們的中期目標，展現了我們的策略目標和對可衡量成果的承諾。平均資本及儲備回報率，我們的目標是成為同業領先銀行。成本收入比，我們的目標是低於 42%，目前的營運率為 36.1%，超出預期。這一結果不僅來自強勁的收入創造，還來自嚴格的成本管理和強勁的營業收入。

Market share, our objective is clear, to lead in commercial loans, consumer loans and demand deposits in local currency. Currently, we are the leaders in demand deposits and hold second place in both commercial and consumer lending. I'd like to emphasize that we aim to reach the targets by growing responsibly in terms of credit risk.

市場份額，我們的目標很明確，在當地貨幣商業貸款、消費貸款和活期存款方面佔據領先地位。目前，我們在活期存款領域處於領先地位，在商業和消費貸款領域均位居第二。我想強調的是，我們的目標是透過在信用風險方面負責任地發展來實現目標。

Net Promoter Score, we've exceeded our target of 73%, reaching 75.8% in March 2025. This reflects sustained efforts in improving customer experience through employee training, digital enhancements and better service models. Corporate reputation, according to 2024 Merco Ranking, we've reached top 2 amongst all companies in Chile, including banks surpassing our goal of being in the top 3.

淨推薦值方面，我們已超越 73% 的目標，到 2025 年 3 月將達到 75.8%。這體現了我們透過員工培訓、數位增強和更好的服務模式持續努力改善客戶體驗。企業聲譽，根據2024年Merco排名，我們在智利所有公司中排名前2，其中銀行也超越了我們進入前3的目標。

This recognition is driven by our broad engagement and social impact initiatives, including education, entrepreneurship and volunteerism along with our commitment to ethical and responsible business practices. In summary, we're executing a strategy that is ambitious and disciplined with a focus on efficiency, customer satisfaction and sustainability. Our progress is measurable, our foundations are strong, and we are confident in our ability to generate long-term value for our stakeholders.

這項認可源自於我們廣泛的參與和社會影響力舉措，包括教育、創業和志願服務，以及我們對道德和負責任的商業實踐的承諾。總之，我們正在執行一項雄心勃勃、嚴謹的策略，重點是效率、客戶滿意度和永續性。我們的進步是可衡量的，我們的基礎是強大的，我們有信心為利害關係人創造長期價值。

Please move to Slide 10, where we will go over our key business advances in the first quarter of 2025. We have continued advancing in initiatives to drive productivity across the entire organization. Functions from our subsidiaries are being centralized to the bank and some organizational structure is being continually refined. Additionally, we have sustained our efforts to streamline technology expenses in the areas including data centers, cloud and telecommunications.

請移至投影片 10，我們將在此介紹 2025 年第一季的主要業務進度。我們不斷推動舉措，提高整個組織的生產力。我們子公司的職能正在向銀行集中，一些組織結構正在不斷改進。此外，我們也持續努力精簡資料中心、雲端和電信等領域的技術開支。

These measures are expected not only to optimize costs but also to enhance our technological capabilities and support our long-term growth objectives. On the digital transformation front, we made advances -- many advances this quarter. First, we are proud to be strategically using AI tools. In fact, we've made available AI Copilot Chat across the entire organization. This important step forward in using AI is making our workdays more productive, secure and insightful. We also introduced new products and enhance existing ones.

預計這些措施不僅可以優化成本，還可以增強我們的技術能力並支持我們的長期成長目標。在數位轉型方面，我們本季取得了許多進展。首先，我們很自豪能夠策略性地使用人工智慧工具。事實上，我們已經在整個組織內推出了 AI Copilot Chat。人工智慧應用的這一重要進步將使我們的工作更有效率、安全、富有洞察力。我們也推出了新產品並改進了現有產品。

To name a few, we launched a new credit card and micro lending product for FAN customers as well as making changes to the Digital Student Plan to reach a broader university student audience. These and other advances have driven the expansion of our digital accounts achieving a 21% year-on-year growth in our FAN customer base. It's also important to note that this has not only expanded our presence in these segments, but it has also been relevant for increasing our financial inclusion in Banco de Chile.

舉例來說，我們為 FAN 客戶推出了新的信用卡和小額貸款產品，並對數位學生計劃進行了修改，以覆蓋更廣泛的大學生受眾。這些以及其他進步推動了我們的數位帳戶的擴張，使我們的 FAN 客戶群同比增長了 21%。值得注意的是，這不僅擴大了我們在這些領域的影響力，而且對於提高智利銀行的金融包容性也具有重要意義。

In addition to our progress in the FAN product, we advanced in improving other digital initiatives that are focused on internal processes. These changes have resulted in boosting our productivity by a staggering 35% year-on-year in current account originations. In line with our commercial initiatives, we launched new accounts for companies of Yuan, Yen and British pounds.

除了在 FAN 產品方面取得的進展之外，我們還在改進其他專注於內部流程的數位化計畫方面取得了進展。這些變化使我們的經常帳戶發放效率比去年同期提高了驚人的 35%。按照我們的商業舉措，我們為人民幣、日圓和英鎊的公司推出了新的帳戶。

These accounts offer diverse functionalities, including foreign exchange transactions, financing options for customers operating internationally. We also upgraded our personal banking credit products by introducing new preapproved credit lines and credit card limits, resulting in a 25% increase in the average number of these operations. New installment options were released for credit card balances, providing customers with more flexibility to pay their debts.

這些帳戶提供多種功能，包括外匯交易、為國際客戶提供融資選擇。我們還透過引入新的預先批准的信用額度和信用卡限額升級了個人銀行信貸產品，導致此類操作的平均數量增加了 25%。推出了新的信用卡分期付款選項，為客戶提供更靈活的還款方式。

Our constant innovation and commercial initiatives enabled us to offer customers a wider range of product options, strengthening our relationship and enhancing our ability to meet their financial needs. In terms of ESG reporting, this quarter, we published our 2024 annual report, which covers our financial and sustainability performance and marked significant advances in meeting local and international standards, such as SASB and GRI.

我們不斷的創新和商業舉措使我們能夠為客戶提供更廣泛的產品選擇，加強我們的關係並提高我們滿足其財務需求的能力。在 ESG 報告方面，本季度我們發布了 2024 年度報告，涵蓋了我們的財務和永續發展績效，並在滿足 SASB 和 GRI 等本地和國際標準方面取得了重大進展。

All of these initiatives position us to maintain our leadership in the banking industry and prepare us confidently to navigate future opportunities and challenges. Please turn to Slide 12 to begin our discussion on our results. We started 2025 with solid results of CLP329 billion this quarter, equal to a return on average equity of 23.3% as shown on the chart to the left. When compared to our peers, we outranked all of them in both market share and return on average assets, as shown on the chart to the right.

所有這些舉措都使我們保持在銀行業的領先地位，並讓我們充滿信心地應對未來的機會和挑戰。請翻到投影片 12 開始討論我們的結果。我們以 3,290 億智利比索的穩健業績開啟了 2025 年，相當於平均股本回報率為 23.3%，如左圖所示。與同行相比，我們的市場份額和平均資產回報率均超過所有同行，如右圖所示。

Specifically, in market share, we achieved a 22.8% participation in net income and in return on average assets we reached 2.5%. Our robust financial performance underscores our enduring customer-centric approach and commitment to establishing a sustainable bank as evidenced by consistent increases in customer revenue, risk management and positive advances in cost control. In line with this expansion, our aspiration is to be the industry leader in profitability.

具體來說，在市佔率方面，我們的淨收入參與度達到了22.8%，平均資產報酬率達到了2.5%。我們強勁的財務表現凸顯了我們堅持以客戶為中心的理念以及致力於建立可持續發展銀行的承諾，客戶收入、風險管理的持續增長以及成本控制的積極進展就是明證。隨著這一擴張，我們的目標是成為行業盈利能力的領導者。

Let's take a closer look at our operating income performance on the next slide, 13. We continue to demonstrate the strongest operating revenues in the industry, thanks to our superior business model and its clear resilience through market cycles. On the chart on the left, we see a consistent operating revenue growth quarter-over-quarter despite subdued business dynamism by totaling CLP779 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

讓我們仔細看看下一張投影片 13 的營業收入表現。由於我們卓越的商業模式及其在市場週期中的明顯韌性，我們持續展現出業界最強勁的營業收入。在左側的圖表中，我們看到儘管業務活力低迷，但營業收入仍保持環比持續增長，2025 年第一季的營業收入總額達到 7,790 億智利比索。

This was composed of strong customer income amounting to CLP617 billion, up 4.3% year-on-year and noncustomer income that reached CLP162 billion below the CLP188 billion recorded a year earlier. The decrease in noncustomer income was mainly caused by the maturity of FCIC funding from the Central Bank in the first half of 2025 which explains CLP75 billion in higher revenues in the first quarter of 2024 when compared to the same period of 2025.

這其中包括強勁的客戶收入，達 6,170 億智利比索，年成長 4.3%，而非客戶收入達到 1,620 億智利比索，低於去年同期的 1,880 億智利比索。非客戶收入的減少主要是由於中央銀行的 FCIC 資金於 2025 年上半年到期，這解釋了 2024 年第一季的收入與 2025 年同期相比增加了 750 億智利比索。

This was partly offset by higher revenues from directional inflation index positions. This decline was partially offset by an annual rise of CLP20 billion in the contribution of our structural UF index net asset exposure that hedges our equity against inflation due to higher inflation that increased from 0.8% in the first quarter of '24 to 1.2% in the first quarter of '25 as well as larger UF GAP on the balance sheet.

這部分被定向通膨指數部位的較高收入所抵銷。這一下降被我們結構性 UF 指數淨資產敞口貢獻的年度增長 200 億智利比索所部分抵消，該敞口可對沖我們的股權免受通貨膨脹的影響，因為通貨膨脹率從 24 年第一季度的 0.8% 上升到 25 年第一季度的 1.2%，以及資產負債表上的 UF GAP 擴大。

In terms of customer revenue, growth was driven by income from loans and fees that were up 7.2% and 14% year-on-year, respectively. The consumer loan book contributed to the most of the loan revenue, which increased by adding CLP9.8 billion due to higher lending spreads and 3.5% annual rise in average loan balances. The remaining increase was fostered by improved lending spreads in both the commercial book and the residential mortgages, which resulted in further income by CLP4.6 billion and CLP2.4 billion, respectively.

在客戶收入方面，成長主要得益於貸款收入和費用收入，分別較去年同期成長7.2%和14%。消費貸款是貸款收入的主要來源，由於貸款利差增加以及平均貸款餘額年增長 3.5%，消費貸款收入增加了 98 億智利比索。剩餘的成長得益於商業貸款和住宅抵押貸款利差的擴大，分別帶來了 46 億智利比索和 24 億智利比索的額外收入。

It's also worth noting that most of the growth in the commercial loan book was from SME loans and the lending spreads in the business unit are gradually returning to normal as FOGAPE loans continue to mature. Likewise, the SME banking unit managed to grow above 8% year-on-year and -- other than FOGAPE loans. As a result, our net interest margin reached 5% this quarter, significantly outperforming our peers.

另外值得注意的是，商業貸款帳簿的大部分成長來自中小企業貸款，隨著 FOGAPE 貸款不斷到期，該業務部門的貸款利差正在逐步恢復正常。同樣，中小企業銀行部門的年成長率也超過了 8%——FOGAPE 貸款除外。因此，本季我們的淨利差達5%，大幅優於同業。

In turn, the increase in fee income was primarily conducted by transactional services and mutual fund management. Transactional services experienced a rise of CLP12 billion, partly driven by a favorable exchange rate impact on fee expenses related to our credit card loyalty program due to the Chilean peso appreciating 4% against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2025 compared to depreciation of 12.3% in the first quarter of 2024.

反過來，費用收入的成長主要來自交易服務和共同基金管理。交易服務收入增加了 120 億智利比索，部分原因是由於 2025 年第一季智利比索兌美元升值 4%，而 2024 年第一季則貶值 12.3%，這對我們信用卡忠誠度計畫相關的費用支出產生了有利的匯率影響。

The remaining increase was due to a rise in credit and debit card transactions of 9.7% and 7.8%, respectively. Fees from mutual funds and investment funds management grew by 22.8% year-on-year. This growth was driven by an 18.4% increase in average balances of assets under management. And furthermore, stock brokerage and investment banking also posted increases in the year-on-year performance fueled by a rebound in the local stock market over the last months and particularly M&A transactions carried out in the market -- in the local market.

其餘成長則是由於信用卡和金融卡交易量分別成長了 9.7% 和 7.8%。共同基金及投資基金管理費用較去年同期成長22.8%。這一增長是由管理資產平均餘額增長 18.4% 所推動的。此外，由於過去幾個月當地股市反彈，特別是在當地市場進行的併購交易，股票經紀和投資銀行業務的表現也較去年同期成長。

In terms of our fee margin over average interest earning assets, we are posting strong levels, as shown on the right side of the slide, with a 1.4% ratio as of the first quarter of '25, also above our peers. Our remarkable operating revenue performance is responsible for an impressive operating margin of 6.7% this quarter. This achievement is proof of our consistent business strategy and our ability to deliver enhanced value offerings to our premium customer base over time in both lending and nonlending products.

就我們的費用利潤率與平均生息資產的比率而言，我們處於強勁水平，如幻燈片右側所示，截至 25 年第一季度，該比率為 1.4%，也高於我們的同行。我們出色的營業收入表現使得本季的營業利潤率達到了驚人的 6.7%。這項成就證明了我們始終如一的經營策略，以及我們透過貸款和非貸款產品為優質客戶群提供增值服務的能力。

As a result, we have established a solid track record in customer income regardless of economic additions. Please turn to Slide 14 to take a deeper look at our loan portfolio performance for the first quarter of 2025. As shown on the left, total loans reached CLP39 trillion, marking a 1.1% increase compared to the previous quarter and a 3.2% increase year-over-year. We expect this pace of growth to transition in the coming quarters to more normalized levels in line with the better economic figures that we are seeing.

因此，無論經濟增加多少，我們都在客戶收入方面建立了良好的記錄。請翻到投影片 14，深入了解我們 2025 年第一季的貸款組合表現。如左圖所示，貸款總額達39兆智利比索，較上一季成長1.1%，比去年同期成長3.2%。我們預計，隨著我們所看到的更好的經濟數據，這一成長速度將在未來幾季過渡到更正常的水平。

Generally, there's a lag of a few quarters when we start to see positive figures in the economy to translate into loan growth. In this regard, although loan growth multipliers to GDP will probably remain below average levels seen in the past decade, we believe the rebound foreseen in private investment this year and enhanced household consumption should drive more dynamism in commercial and consumer lending in coming quarters.

一般來說，需要幾個季度的時間，我們才會開始看到經濟中的正面數據轉化為貸款成長。在這方面，儘管貸款成長乘數與GDP之比可能仍將低於過去十年的平均水平，但我們認為，今年私人投資的反彈和家庭消費的增強，將在未來幾季推動商業和消費貸款更加活躍。

In terms of composition, personal banking to commercial loan mix continues increasing. The retail portfolio drove loan growth. This book is comprised of individuals and SMEs, representing 65% of total loans expanded 5.6%, while wholesale lending remained basically flat year-on-year. Specifically, mortgage loans led the rise up 8.1% year-on-year, reaching CLP13.5 trillion, despite higher than pre-COVID interest rates, the segment has proven resilient with originations for new loans rising 12% year-on-year.

從結構來看，個人銀行貸款與商業銀行貸款結構持續上升。零售組合推動了貸款成長。該帳簿由個人和中小企業組成，佔貸款總額的 65%，增加了 5.6%，而批發貸款則是年比基本持平。具體而言，抵押貸款年增 8.1%，達到 13.5 兆比索，儘管利率高於新冠疫情之前的水平，但該領域表現出韌性，新貸款發放量同比增長 12%。

Industry-wide, residential mortgage loans grew 6.3% year-on-year, allowing us to post market share gains rising from 15.3% to 15.6%. Consumer loans increased by 3.9% year-on-year to CLP5.5 trillion. Although this growth is below historical levels, due to high interest rates and persistent unemployment, a gradual improvement is anticipated if the trade war does not escalate and affects the local economy.

全行業住宅抵押貸款年增6.3%，市佔率從15.3%上升至15.6%。消費貸款年增3.9%，達5.5兆智利比索。儘管由於高利率和持續的失業，這一增長低於歷史水平，但如果貿易戰不升級並影響當地經濟，預計將逐步改善。

Commercial loans to SMEs reached CLP5.2 trillion, up 3.7% year-on-year. This expansion has been negatively impacted by significant growth in prior periods in FOGAPE government guaranteed loans that are amortizing at a high rate, offset by FOGAPE loans that have expanded a rate of 8.2% year-on-year. On the other hand, commercial loans in the Wholesale Banking segment remained flat year-on-year. Originations in this segment offset the negative impact of exchange rates on foreign trade loans and lower demand for this product.

中小企業商業貸款達5.2兆智利比索，年增3.7%。這一擴張受到了前期 FOGAPE 政府擔保貸款大幅增長且攤銷率較高的負面影響，但被 FOGAPE 貸款同比增長 8.2% 所抵消。另一方面，企業銀行業務的商業貸款較去年同期持平。該部門的貸款發放抵消了匯率對外貿貸款和該產品需求下降的負面影響。

When setting aside the potential effects of the trade war on both global and the local economy, we expect the segment to grow throughout the years on the grounds of expected reactivation in the private investment regardless of the lag between economic figures and demand for loans. Please turn to Slide 15 to discuss our competitive balance sheet structure.

撇開貿易戰對全球和本地經濟的潛在影響，我們預計該領域將在未來幾年內保持成長，因為無論經濟數據和貸款需求之間存在滯後，私人投資都有望重新活躍。請翻到投影片 15 來討論我們具有競爭力的資產負債表結構。

As depicted in the chart on the top left, our assets and liability structure is solid. Our business strategy is primarily focused on commercial banking with loans constituting 73% of total assets as of March 2025, while financial instruments represent only 10%. Also, I want to highlight that our held-to-maturity portfolio represents less than 2% of total assets. This is relevant because during the pandemic, we and most of our peers increased the level of these financial instruments which generally yield significantly lower than the current market rate, thus affecting net interest margins.

如左上圖所示，我們的資產負債結構穩健。我們的業務策略主要集中在商業銀行業務，截至 2025 年 3 月，貸款佔總資產的 73%，而金融工具僅佔 10%。另外，我想強調的是，我們的持有至到期投資組合佔總資產的不到 2%。這很重要，因為在疫情期間，我們和大多數同業都提高了這些金融工具的水平，這些工具的收益率通常遠低於當前市場利率，從而影響了淨利差。

On the liability side, deposits are the main source of funding, representing 56% of our assets. Within deposits, time deposits are the most relevant financing source on our balance sheet, followed by demand deposits, one of the most important competitive advantages that we have. As you can see on the chart to the right, zero interest-bearing demand deposits funded 37% of our loans, significantly higher ratio than our peers and one of the drivers of our net interest margin advantage.

在負債方面，存款是主要資金來源，占我們資產的56%。在存款中，定期存款是我們資產負債表上最相關的融資來源，其次是活期存款，這是我們最重要的競爭優勢之一。正如您在右側圖表中看到的，零息活期存款為我們提供了 37% 的貸款，這一比例遠高於我們的同行，也是我們淨利差優勢的驅動因素之一。

Also, as shown on the table on the bottom left, we have a high level of liquidity that largely exceeds the limits set by the regulator. Our liquidity coverage ratio reached 186% as of March 2025, 86 percentage points higher than the regulatory limit and the net stable funding ratio reached a level of 119%, 29 percentage points higher than the limit during the same period.

另外，如左下角的表格所示，我們的流動性水準很高，大大超過了監管機構設定的限額。截至2025年3月，本行流動性覆蓋率達186%，高出監理限額86個百分點；淨穩定資金率達119%，高出同期限額29個百分點。

In addition, it's worth noting that our UF asset GAP was CLP9.7 trillion by the end of March 2025. Meaning that our sensitivity to 1% inflation is about CLP97 billion in net interest income. It's important to mention that this GAP is composed of two parts. First, we have a UF position that's structural, which is related to hedge of capital gains inflation.

此外，值得注意的是，截至 2025 年 3 月底，我們的 UF 資產缺口為 9.7 兆智利比索。這意味著我們對 1% 通膨的敏感度是淨利息收入約為 970 億智利比索。值得一提的是，這個GAP由兩個部分組成。首先，我們有一個結構性的 UF 頭寸，它與對沖資本利通膨有關。

Second, we have a directional UF positions that are managed by treasury that -- to profit from the differential between the Chilean peso and UF rates in the short term. given recent inflation trends, which have remained above the Central Bank's target range and the treasury's expectations on how inflation will evolve going forward, we have temporarily increased our UF position overall.

其次，我們擁有由財務部門管理的方向性 UF 頭寸，以便在短期內從智利比索和 UF 匯率之間的差異中獲利。鑑於近期通膨趨勢仍高於央行目標區間，以及財政部對未來通膨走勢的預期，我們暫時提高了整體 UF 部位。

The income obtained from the strategy has clearly offset the risk taken, which is well controlled by the solid corporate governance we have in these matters. Please turn to the next slide, 16, to discuss sound capital base. Banco de Chile is the best capitalized bank among its peers in the industry. As of March 2025, our Basel III ratio stood at 17.4%, significantly surpassing our fully loaded requirement of 12.4% as indicated on the accompanying table.

該策略所獲得的收入顯然抵消了所承擔的風險，而我們在這些事務中穩健的公司治理很好地控制了這一風險。請翻到下一張投影片 16，討論良好的資本基礎。智利銀行是同業中資本實力最強的銀行。截至 2025 年 3 月，我們的巴塞爾協議 III 比率為 17.4%，大大超過了附表所示的 12.4% 的滿載要求。

Our CET1 ratio shows a decline this quarter due to effective payout in dividends, they exceeded the 60% amount provisioned as of December 31, 2024, following our shareholders decision to distribute 100% of the distributable earnings from 2024. Despite this reduction, our CET1 trend over the past few years has significantly outperformed both our main competitors as illustrated in the chart on the bottom left and remains well above the regulatory limit.

由於股息的有效支付，我們的 CET1 比率本季有所下降，由於我們的股東決定從 2024 年起分配 100% 的可分配收益，股息超過了截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 60% 的撥備金額。儘管有所減少，但如左下角的圖表所示，過去幾年我們的 CET1 趨勢明顯優於我們的主要競爭對手，並且仍然遠高於監管限度。

Based on the strong capital levels, we are comfortably meeting our phase-in Basel III requirements while remaining confident in addressing the final steps in Basel III implementation. More importantly, given this scenario, we possess the necessary capital to pursue growth opportunities should market conditions permit.

基於強大的資本水平，我們可以輕鬆地滿足巴塞爾協議 III 的分階段實施要求，同時對完成巴塞爾協議 III 實施的最後步驟充滿信心。更重要的是，在這種情況下，如果市場條件允許，我們擁有尋求成長機會所需的資本。

Please turn to Slide 17. In the first quarter of this year, expected credit losses reached CLP90 billion, 20% lower than the same period last year and 13% lower when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Cost of risk for the period dropped only 0.93% below our long-term expectations. As discussed in previous earnings calls, delinquencies have shown signs of stabilization as illustrated in the accompanying charts.

請翻到投影片 17。今年第一季度，預期信貸損失達 900 億智利比索，比去年同期下降 20%，比 2024 年第四季下降 13%。該期間的風險成本僅比我們的長期預期低 0.93%。正如先前的收益電話會議中所討論的那樣，拖欠情況已顯示出穩定的跡象，如附圖所示。

The top right chart demonstrates our performance relative to our peers. Notably, we reported nonperforming loans of only 1.5% this quarter, which is significantly lower than that of our peers. The bottom-right chart provides a breakdown of this figure indicating that NPLs have started to stabilize by product and have even improved for consumer loans. We believe that if the economy continues to strengthen and uncertainties decrease, we could observe a moderate improvement in NPLs across products.

右上角的圖表顯示了我們相對於同行的表現。值得注意的是，本季我們的不良貸款率僅 1.5%，遠低於同業。右下角的圖表提供了該數據的細分，表明不良貸款已開始按產品趨於穩定，消費貸款甚至有所改善。我們相信，如果經濟持續走強且不確定性減少，我們可能會看到各類產品的不良貸款情況出現適度改善。

And the chart on the bottom left indicates that our loan portfolio has a coverage ratio of 2.6 times, including additional provisions amounting to CLP631 billion, which is the highest amount in the local banking industry while positioning us favorably for managing unexpected credit risk deterioration. These additional provisions are particularly valuable in uncertain times as they provide a robust buffer against potential negative economic scenarios that could arise in the global economy.

左下角的圖表顯示，我們的貸款組合覆蓋率為 2.6 倍，其中包括 6,310 億智利比索的額外撥備，這是當地銀行業中最高的數額，同時也為我們管理意外信用風險惡化提供了有利條件。這些額外準備金在不確定的時期尤其有價值，因為它們為應對全球經濟可能出現的潛在負面經濟狀況提供了強有力的緩衝。

It's also important to note that the CMS standardized provisioning model for consumer loans went into effect in January 2025. To mitigate the CLP69 billion expected impact on risk expenses for 2025, we released additional provisions as anticipated in previous calls. Please turn to Slide 18. This quarter, expenses amounted to CLP281 billion, 1% lower than the same period last year and 7% less in the fourth quarter of 2024.

值得注意的是，CMS 消費貸款標準化撥備模式將於 2025 年 1 月生效。為了減輕預計對 2025 年風險支出造成的 690 億智利比索的影響，我們按照先前的電話會議預測發布了額外撥備。請翻到幻燈片 18。本季支出為 2,810 億智利比索，比去年同期下降 1%，比 2024 年第四季下降 7%。

This decrease is even more significant when adjusted for inflation as most costs items are linked to CPI variation, which reached 4.9% over the past 12 months. These figures reaffirm our commitment to productivity and efficiency, which is supported by our digital strategy that has demonstrated to be effective and strict cost control initiatives. In more detail, as shown in the chart on the top right, the annual contraction was mainly explained by lower admin and personnel expenses, the CLP2.1 billion decrease in admin expenses was primarily driven by reduced fixed assets, maintenance costs and IT expenses.

由於大多數成本項目與 CPI 變化相關，經通貨膨脹調整後，此降幅更為顯著，而 CPI 變化在過去 12 個月達到了 4.9%。這些數字再次證明了我們對生產力和效率的承諾，這得益於我們已被證明有效且嚴格的成本控制措施的數位策略。更詳細地說，如右上圖所示，年度收縮主要是由於管理和人事費用下降，管理費用減少 21 億智利比索主要是由於固定資產、維護成本和 IT 費用減少。

Regarding personnel expenses, the CLP494 million decrease was mainly explained by lower total salaries in line with the annual decline of approximately 7% in headcount. This was a result of efficiency initiatives we have deployed over the past years aimed at increasing our productivity with a comprehensive approach. These factors were partially offset by an increase in severance payments related to organizational restructuring as certain functions have been centralized and optimized.

就人事費用而言，減少 4.94 億智利比索主要是因為員工人數每年下降約 7%，導致總薪資下降。這是我們過去幾年來採取的效率措施的結果，旨在透過綜合方法提高生產力。由於某些職能的集中和優化，組織重組相關的遣散費增加部分抵消了這些因素。

In terms of our efficiency ratio during the first quarter of '25, we achieved a 36.1% level, which is comparable to the ratio recorded in the first quarter of 2024 which is noteworthy as revenues continue to normalize. The chart on the bottom right shows our consistent track record of efficiency and how we've been able to reach lower levels than prior to the pandemic. We are confident that through effective cost management, enhanced productivity and strategic use of technology, we will sustain our strong efficiency levels aiming for approximately 39% in 2025 and maintaining below the 42% in the long term.

就 2025 年第一季的效率比率而言，我們達到了 36.1% 的水平，與 2024 年第一季的效率比率相當，這一點值得注意，因為收入正在繼續正常化。右下角的圖表顯示了我們一貫的效率記錄，以及我們如何能夠達到比疫情之前更低的水平。我們相信，透過有效的成本管理、提高生產力和策略性地使用技術，我們將保持強勁的效率水平，目標是到 2025 年達到約 39%，並在長期內保持在 42% 以下。

Please turn to Slide 19. Before moving to questions, I want to go over some key takeaways. Despite the several risks and significant global uncertainties affecting our GDP forecast of 2% for this year, Chile's strong economic fundamentals and our ability to implement countercyclical measures will be crucial in mitigating potential negative impacts. Banco de Chile is uniquely positioned to address these challenges due to our exceptional customer base, superior asset mix and quality as well as having the highest coverage ratio among peers.

請翻到投影片 19。在回答問題之前，我想先回顧一些關鍵要點。儘管若干風險和重大的全球不確定性影響我們對今年 GDP 成長 2% 的預測，但智利強勁的經濟基本面和我們實施逆週期措施的能力對於減輕潛在的負面影響至關重要。智利銀行擁有卓越的客戶基礎、優越的資產組合和質量，以及同業中最高的覆蓋率，因此在應對這些挑戰方面具有獨特的優勢。

We remain confident in our ability to sustain our status as Chile's most profitable bank over the long term. our commitment to innovation, customer satisfaction and prudent risk management will continue to drive our success and ensure sustainable growth. By adapting to market changes and prioritizing our customer needs, we aim to maintain our industry-leading position for years to come.

我們仍然有信心，我們有能力長期維持智利最賺錢銀行的地位。我們對創新、客戶滿意度和審慎風險管理的承諾將繼續推動我們的成功並確保永續成長。透過適應市場變化並優先考慮客戶需求，我們的目標是在未來幾年保持行業領先地位。

Thank you. And if you have any questions, we'd be happy to answer them.

謝謝。如果您有任何疑問，我們很樂意為您解答。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Yuri Fernandes, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的尤里費南德斯。

So, I would like to ask maybe to Pablo regarding capital here for Banco de Chile. As you explained in the presentation in the slide, you have a lot of capital, right? You just paid dividends, but you are well above peers. I think CMS had some discussions on adjustments on marketing related capital Tier 2 pillars. My question is the following, Pablo, with more visibility, let's say, we start to have more visibility, how Banco de Chile will deploy this excess capital, right?

因此，我想向 Pablo 詢問有關智利銀行資本的問題。正如您在幻燈片演示中解釋的那樣，您擁有大量資本，對嗎？你剛剛支付了股息，但你遠遠高於同業。我認為 CMS 已經就與行銷相關的第二層資本支柱的調整進行了一些討論。我的問題是，巴勃羅，隨著可見度的提高，假設我們開始擁有更多的可見度，智利銀行將如何部署這些過剩資本，對嗎？

Should we expect at some point -- I know this is a recurring question for you, but should we expect more dividend payout for you? Should we see M&A? Should we see more growth? Just trying to understand, and if you can provide some numbers, I remember in the past, I think you used to say that 200 bps, 250 bps above the minimal requirement was somewhat the goal. So just checking if that continues to be the case.

我們是否應該期待在某個時候——我知道這對您來說是一個反覆出現的問題，但是我們是否應該期待您獲得更多的股息支付？我們應該看到併購嗎？我們應該看到更多的成長嗎？只是想了解一下，如果您可以提供一些數字，我記得過去，我想您曾經說過，高於最低要求 200 bps、250 bps 在某種程度上是目標。因此，只需檢查情況是否繼續如此。

Yuri, I'm here with Daniel Galarce, who will take this question, one second.

尤里，我和丹尼爾·加拉爾斯在這裡，他來回答這個問題，等一下。

Yuri, this is Daniel Galarce. As we have discussed in the previous calls, we are aware that our current positive gaps in terms of capital adequacy and also our position in terms of capital adequacy as well in the local industry. Of course, our Tier 1 ratio, for instance, is 3% or 4% above the regulatory limit. And you have to consider that in March that ratio decreased approximately 1% due to the dividend payment.

尤里，這是丹尼爾·加拉爾斯。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所討論的那樣，我們意識到我們目前在資本充足率方面存在著積極的差距，並且在資本充足率方面我們在當地行業中的地位也存在著積極的差距。當然，我們的一級資本充足率比監管限額高出 3% 或 4%。你必須考慮到，由於股息支付，3 月下降了約 1%。

As we have emphasized in previous calls, we aim to keep this favorable capital buffers in order to support either future organic growth or also inorganic growth if some opportunities can arise in the future. So in this regard, part of our current capital position has to do with both, subdued loan growth, of course, and also the profitability we have observed over the last five years, we have been -- which has been very nonrecurring, of course, due to different market factors.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中所強調的那樣，我們的目標是保持這種有利的資本緩衝，以支持未來的有機成長或無機成長（如果未來出現一些機會）。因此，在這方面，我們目前的資本狀況部分與貸款成長放緩有關，當然，也與我們過去五年觀察到的獲利能力有關——當然，由於不同的市場因素，這種獲利能力一直很不穩定。

In addition, I would say that with our current capital buffers, we also need to face and we have to face the final phase of Basel III transition. Of course, there are some pending regulations in the local market like Pillar II regulation, which is still pending from the CMS side. And this can translate into further capital requirements for banks, including us. It's important to take into account that also the Chilean Central Bank has announced that probably the countercyclical buffer will convert to an neutral level as well of around 1%.

此外，我想說，以我們現有的資本緩衝，我們還需要面對、也必須面對巴塞爾協議三過渡的最後階段。當然，當地市場還有一些尚未推出的法規，例如第二支柱法規，從CMS方面來看，該法規仍有待推出。這可能意味著對包括我們在內的銀行有進一步的資本要求。值得注意的是，智利央行也宣布逆週期緩衝可能也將轉換為約 1% 的中性水平。

So it's important to note that in terms of our capital composition, we are facing Tier 1 capital needs only with CT1 capital. So given that and due to the lack of a deep local capital markets in terms of AT1 and also the cost involved in AT1 issuances in foreign markets, we are assessing the possibility of optimizing our capital base in the future. But so far, we will face capital requirements of Tier 1 only with CT1.

因此，值得注意的是，就我們的資本組成而言，我們僅面臨 CT1 資本的一級資本需求。因此，鑑於這一點以及由於 AT1 方面缺乏深度的本地資本市場以及在國外市場發行 AT1 所涉及的成本，我們正在評估未來優化資本基礎的可能性。但到目前為止，我們僅會面臨 CT1 的一級資本要求。

So due to that, the 60% dividend payout ratio is our baseline scenario for the future. And accordingly, extra dividends or a payout ratio higher than 60% would be only possible under certain circumstances, basically loan growth below what we are expecting now and/or results above what we are expecting as well. So if that -- if this doesn't occur, probably we will maintain our 60% dividend policy over the next years.

因此，60% 的股息支付率是我們對未來的基準預測。因此，只有在某些情況下才有可能獲得額外的股息或高於 60% 的派息率，基本上就是貸款成長低於我們現在的預期和/或績效高於我們的預期。因此，如果這種情況沒有發生，我們可能會在未來幾年維持 60% 的股息政策。

No, no. Super clear. This is a good problem to have. If I may, just a related question on this topic of good problems for Banco de Chile. The other common one we discussed is your higher allowances to loans when we add up the additional provisions, right? And this has been coming down gradually. So just checking the box here, if there's a number that you go for these, like if you feel comfortable of this returning below 200% at some point?

不，不。超級清晰。這是一個好問題。如果可以的話，我只想就智利銀行的好問題這個主題提出一個相關問題。我們討論的另一個常見問題是，當我們加上額外的準備金時，您的貸款準備金會更高，對嗎？而這一數字正在逐漸下降。因此，只需在此處選取複選框，如果您選擇某個數字，例如，如果您覺得某個數字在某個點返回到 200% 以下會很舒服？

Well, as you know, the additional provisions -- this is Pablo speaking. As you know, the additional provisions that we accumulated were during the pandemic when the level of delinquencies didn't make sense in an economic cycle that we were having. And we began accumulating these additional provisions. One part of this -- a portion of this was used to implement the new consumer loan model, that went into effect in January of 2025, so CLP69 billion, and we still have the rest on the books.

嗯，正如你所知，關於附加條款——我是巴勃羅。如您所知，我們累積的額外準備金是在疫情期間累積的，當時的拖欠率在我們所處的經濟週期中是不合理的。我們開始累積這些額外的物資。其中一部分——一部分用於實施新的消費貸款模式，該模式於 2025 年 1 月生效，即 690 億智利比索，其餘部分仍在帳上。

So the coverage ratio, sure, has been coming down, but it's been coming down based on NPLs. So how the NPLs have evolved is NPLs and mortgage loans has increased industry-wide. We're significantly below the average in the industry. And we've seen slowing down or actually reversals in the -- if we look at year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter in terms of commercial loans and consumer loans. Commercial loans are relatively flat NPLs and consumer loans coming down a little bit.

因此，覆蓋率確實一直在下降，但下降是基於不良貸款的。不良貸款的演變情況是，整個行業的不良貸款和抵押貸款都在增加。我們遠低於行業平均。如果我們從商業貸款和消費貸款的同比或環比來看，我們發現成長正在放緩，甚至出現逆轉。商業貸款不良貸款相對持平，消費貸款略有下降。

So since it's a relationship between NPLs and total allowances for loan losses, the number has come down because there's a little bit higher NPLs, but there's a lot of guarantees in those NPLs, right? So as we continue to improve if the economy improves, if everything goes a little bit back to normal, we'll probably start to see a change in NPLs coming down and maybe the ratio will be higher.

因此，由於不良貸款和貸款損失準備金總額之間存在關係，所以這個數字下降了，因為不良貸款略高，但這些不良貸款中有很多擔保，對嗎？因此，如果經濟持續好轉，如果一切都恢復正常，我們可能會開始看到不良貸款的變化，不良貸款率可能會下降，也許比率會更高。

But it's also important to mention that in the case of these additional provisions is that we're in a cycle of a lot of uncertainty right now, especially with everything that's going on globally. So this is very important for us to maintain in these more negative cycles that we can use this if something is affected, not that we're seeing something today, but if something could be affected in economic sector, customer base, et cetera, we have those additional provisions.

但同樣值得一提的是，就這些附加條款而言，我們目前正處於一個充滿不確定性的循環中，尤其是考慮到全球正在發生的一切。因此，這對我們在這些更負面的循環中保持這一點非常重要，如果某些東西受到影響，我們可以使用它，雖然不是我們今天看到的某些東西，但如果某些東西可能在經濟部門，客戶群等方面受到影響，我們就會使用那些額外的規定。

So in the long term, it make sense or the medium term, it makes sense that we return to those levels that either we use them, there's a use for these additional provisions, we maintain them or there's a reversal, as we've mentioned in other calls but there's no clear timeline when that will occur. And today, there's more uncertainties than there were six months ago. So it's something that we're comfortable with today.

因此，從長遠來看，這是有意義的，或者從中期來看，我們回到那些水平是有意義的，要么我們使用它們，這些額外的規定是有用的，我們維持它們，要么出現逆轉，正如我們在其他電話會議中提到的那樣，但沒有明確的時間表何時會發生這種情況。如今，不確定性比六個月前更多。所以這是我們今天感到滿意的事情。

No. Thank you, Pablo. But there is no number, right? Because this was closer to 400% back in the day. It's [250], as you said, just because of NPLs like your drop in nominal additional provision was very minimal, right? It went up from CLP700 billion to CLP630 billion, it's fine, like but some of your peers, they increased this by 1/4, 1/3, by 1/2, right? So is there a number that you believe like 200% additional coverage, that's fine? Like is there a number that we should believe on this number going forward or not really?

不。謝謝你，巴布羅。但沒有數字，對嗎？因為這個數字在過去接近 400%。正如您所說，它是 [250]，只是因為不良貸款，例如您的名義額外撥備下降非常小，對嗎？它從 7000 億智利比索上漲到了 6300 億智利比索，這很好，但是你們的一些同行，他們將其增加了 1/4、1/3、1/2，對嗎？那麼，您認為像 200% 的額外覆蓋率這樣的數字可以嗎？例如，我們是否應該相信這個數字？

If we look at the averages before the pandemic, we had numbers around 200%, but it was with a different level of additional provisions and NPLs.

如果我們看疫情之前的平均水平，我們的數字約為 200%，但額外撥備和不良貸款的水平不同。

Beatriz de Abreu, Goldman Sachs.

比阿特麗斯·德·阿布魯，高盛。

My first one is regarding margins. So we saw that you increased the margin guidance to around 4.7, which is now closer to the top of the range that you had previously, even though you now expect a lower level of policy rate at the end of 2025. So if you could give us some color on what made you increase your margin expectations there?

我的第一個問題與利潤有關。因此，我們看到您將保證金指引提高到了 4.7 左右，現在更接近您先前設定的範圍上限，儘管您現在預計 2025 年底的政策利率會降低。那麼，您能否向我們解釋一下是什麼促使您提高利潤預期？

Are you now more confident regarding any mix changes? And my second question is regarding loan growth. So I would like to know what are your current expectations for loan growth by segment? And what do you think that needs to happen for loan growth to accelerate above the mid-single-digit levels?

您現在對於任何混合變化是否更有信心？我的第二個問題是關於貸款成長。所以我想知道您目前對各部分貸款成長的期望是什麼？您認為需要怎麼做才能使貸款成長加速到中等個位數水準以上？

In terms of net interest margins, we did have a first quarter that was quite strong in terms of inflation and throughout the rest of the year, we're expecting that there should be as long as the global economy has impacted materially in Chile, an improvement in terms of mix and the types of loans that we're growing. So there should be an improvement in terms of mix.

就淨利差而言，我們第一季的通膨表現確實相當強勁，而在今年剩餘時間內，我們預計只要全球經濟對智利產生重大影響，我們的貸款組合和貸款類型就會有所改善。因此，混合方面應該會有所改善。

We've been benefiting from the decrease since last year to this year in terms of spreads and the overnight rate, which has decreased, reducing the cost of our time deposits. So this has been translating into a slight change. But in general, the change in terms of our NIM guidance is more or less in line with what we had in the prior conference call, just slight adjustments considering the evolution of the first quarter and expectations for the rest of the year.

從去年到今年，利差和隔夜利率一直在下降，這讓我們受益匪淺，降低了定期存款的成本。因此這已經轉化為一個微小的變化。但總體而言，我們的 NIM 指引的變化與上次電話會議中的內容基本一致，只是根據第一季的發展和今年剩餘時間的預期進行了輕微調整。

In terms of, as I mentioned, mix, and there's a little bit of reduction in terms of the guidance of the overnight rate. So we're seeing in the beginning in the year, Rodrigo can go into that, an overnight rate that was a little bit different from what we're expecting today. Rodrigo?

正如我所提到的，就組合而言，隔夜利率指導價略有降低。因此，我們看到，在今年年初，羅德里戈可以了解到，隔夜利率與我們今天預期的略有不同。羅德里戈？

Beatriz, thank you very much for the question. Yes. Let me add just a couple of ideas. Today, we have more uncertainty in terms of the evolution of key market drivers for profitability, for margin, especially in terms of inflation and interest rates. Even though in our baseline scenario, we are expecting an inflation rate of around 3.8%, probably 4% by the end of the year, which would be consistent with an interest rate of around 4.25% by the end of this year.

比阿特麗斯，非常感謝您的提問。是的。讓我補充幾點想法。今天，我們在獲利能力、利潤率的關鍵市場驅動因素的演變方面面臨更多的不確定性，尤其是在通貨膨脹和利率方面。儘管在我們的基準情境中，我們預期通膨率將在 3.8% 左右，到今年年底可能達到 4%，這與今年年底 4.25% 左右的利率一致。

These assumptions are consistent with the absence of a higher inflation in the rest of the world. And also these assumptions are based on an exchange rate hovering about the current FX, which is around CLP940, CLP950, something like that. So -- but we are aware about the uncertainty because we are facing a supply shock, where we have lower global growth but some pressures on inflation. So it's not clear what's going to be the final equilibrium.

這些假設與世界其他地區沒有出現高通膨的情況一致。而這些假設都是基於當前外匯匯率徘徊在 940 智利比索、950 智利比索左右的水平。所以——但我們意識到了不確定性，因為我們正面臨供給衝擊，全球經濟成長放緩，但通膨面臨一些壓力。因此，最終的平衡點是什麼還不清楚。

But at least for now, we think that it's reasonable to expect some adjustment, minor adjustment, I would say, in the interest rate in Chile probably 75 basis points from now to the end of the year. We continue expecting a neutral interest rate in Chile of a number between 4% and 4.5%, and inflation will be lower in the future, converging probably by the end of this year towards 3.8%.

但至少就目前而言，我們認為預期智利利率會進行一些調整，小幅調整是合理的，我想說，從現在到年底，智利利率可能會調整 75 個基點。我們繼續預期智利的中性利率將在 4% 至 4.5% 之間，未來通膨率將會降低，可能在今年底趨於 3.8%。

And probably in 2026, the inflation rate will be -- only in 2026, the inflation rate will be around 3%, but again, today, our main source of uncertainty in terms of the key factors affecting margin and profitability are related with macro factors, especially in terms of GDP, interest rates and inflation in the short term.

可能到 2026 年，通貨膨脹率將達到 3% 左右，但今天，影響利潤率和盈利能力的關鍵因素方面，我們的主要不確定性來源與宏觀因素有關，尤其是 GDP、利率和短期通貨膨脹。

Going into your second question and tying it into the first one. In terms of where we're growing and what's changed, we're seeing the economy or -- in Chile, the economy dropped as well. We're seeing loan growth for the industry dropping a little bit. So the guidance came down there and probably what we should see is more uncertainty from businesses. So maybe recovery of businesses could be slightly slower.

進入你的第二個問題並將其與第一個問題聯繫起來。就我們的成長點和變化而言，我們看到智利的經濟也在下滑。我們發現該行業的貸款成長略有下降。因此，指導意見已經出台，我們可能應該看到的是來自企業的更多不確定性。因此，企業的復甦可能會稍微慢一些。

So where we could see probably a little bit better activity is in retail products. So consumer loans is important there. So the mix is slightly different from what we were expecting from the beginning of the year, which would be positive for the net interest margin, slightly less in terms of total loan growth. So what we're expecting is slightly above the levels of the industry, which the industry GDP expectation -- sorry, loan growth expectations are around 4%.

因此，我們可能會看到零售產品領域的活動稍微好一點。因此消費貸款在那裡很重要。因此，這種組合與我們年初的預期略有不同，這對淨利差來說是有利的，但對總貸款成長來說則略有不利。因此，我們的預期略高於行業水平，即行業 GDP 預期——抱歉，貸款增長預期約為 4%。

For us slightly above that, and that will be driven by consumer loans and mortgage loans. And we should probably see commercial loans slightly below the expectations that we had earlier in the year. And within the commercial loans, probably a little bit more activity from SMEs than from large companies in general.

對我們來說，略高於這個數字，這將由消費貸款和抵押貸款推動。我們可能應該會看到商業貸款略低於今年稍早的預期。在商業貸款中，中小企業的活動可能比大公司整體上要多一些。

Neha Agarwal, HSBC

Neha Agarwal，匯豐銀行

Just a quick one. What are the main concerns that you have from a macro standpoint for the year? There was -- earlier in the year, there was also a discussion about higher taxes, but I guess that's off the table for now. Is there a risk for that to come back? And my second question is on inflation. Like this year inflation, at least so far has been running higher than expected.

只是快速的一次。從宏觀角度來看，您對今年的主要擔憂是什麼？今年早些時候，也曾討論過提高稅收的問題，但我想現在這個話題已經不再討論了。這種情況有再次發生的風險嗎？我的第二個問題是關於通貨膨脹。就像今年的通貨膨脹，至少到目前為止一直高於預期。

How do you see it in 2026? I believe if there's a steeper decline in inflation that could put more pressure on margins for next year. So how are you protecting yourselves in view of that? And how much of that is being managed by the UF GAP that you mentioned during your opening remarks?

您如何看待 2026 年的情況？我相信，如果通貨膨脹率大幅下降，可能會對明年的利潤率造成更大壓力。那麼，有鑑於此，你們該如何保護自己呢？其中有多少是由您在開場白中提到的 UF GAP 管理的？

Thanks, Neha. This is Rodrigo Aravena. Thank you very much for your question. In terms of our concerns or our balance of risk that we have today, our main concern for this year is related with the global economy, okay? It's very important to keep in mind, to be aware that Chile is -- according to some measures, Chile is one of the most open economies in Latin America. Our total trade volume, for example, is around 55% of the GDP.

謝謝，Neha。這是羅德里戈·阿拉維納。非常感謝您的提問。就我們今天的擔憂或風險平衡而言，我們今年的主要擔憂與全球經濟有關，好嗎？我們必須牢記，根據一些衡量標準，智利是拉丁美洲最開放的經濟體之一。例如，我們的貿易總額約佔GDP的55％。

We have free trade agreements with more than 85%, around 90% of the global economy. So that's why the evolution of the global growth, especially in our main trade partners, even though the larger trade partner in Chile is China with 40% of the total export, the second largest trade partner is the United States with nearly 16% by the end of the last year.

我們與全球85%以上、約90%的經濟體簽訂了自由貿易協定。這就是全球經濟成長的演變，特別是在我們的主要貿易夥伴中，儘管智利最大的貿易夥伴是中國，佔其出口總額的 40%，但第二大貿易夥伴是美國，截至去年年底佔接近 16%。

So the evolution of the trade policy, the new measures that could be adopted by the US authorities, the potential impact in terms of economic growth of China is, at least for this year, our main concern in terms of the impact on growth for -- at least for this year. Locally, probably the most important event to monitor this year is related with the elections. We're going to have presidential election in November this year. There will be a Congress election as well with a total change in the lower house, they have the Senate.

因此，貿易政策的演變、美國當局可能採取的新措施以及對中國經濟成長的潛在影響，至少在今年是我們主要關注的因素。在當地，今年最值得關注的事件可能與選舉有關。我們將於今年十一月舉行總統選舉。也將舉行國會選舉，眾議院將發生徹底變革，參議院也將改變。

So that's why we have to pay attention to the evolution of the discussion, the proposals, et cetera. Today, we knew, for example, that a very important survey was released this morning from [CEP, Centro de Estudios Pablicos] in Spanish, the name of the company, which showed that nearly 50%, 52% of people, they haven't decided their preference for the candidate to -- their candidate for this year. So we have some uncertainty in terms of who's going to be the President, the composition of the Congress, et cetera.

所以我們必須關注討論、提案等的進展。例如，今天我們知道，西班牙語的「公共研究中心」（CEP，Centro de Estudios Pablicos）今天早上發布了一項非常重要的調查，調查顯示，近 50% 到 52% 的人還沒有決定今年的大選候選人。因此，我們對誰將擔任總統、國會的組成等問題有些不確定性。

In terms of taxes, we haven't seen any proposal that puts the possibility to paying taxes. In fact, there are some proposals on the other direction, considering, for example, some reduction in the corporate tax rate. But again, we have to see how the discussion will evolve in the future. In terms of other figures, for example, employment or internal demand, we are not very concerned. Again, is the global economy and the result of election the key factor to monitor this year.

在稅收方面，我們還沒有看到任何提出納稅可能性的提案。事實上，也有一些相反方向的提議，例如考慮降低企業稅率。但我們必須再次觀察未來討論將如何發展。至於其他數據，例如就業或內部需求，我們並不太擔心。再一次，全球經濟和選舉結果是今年需要關注的關鍵因素。

In terms of inflation, a key factor to monitor is the evolution of the FX because the pass-through in Chile is a number between 10% and 15%, which means that if the exchange rate depreciate, for example, by CLP90 today, it could have a potential impact on inflation of around 100, 150 basis points over the next 12 to 18 months.

在通貨膨脹方面，需要監測的一個關鍵因素是外匯的演變，因為智利的傳導率在 10% 到 15% 之間，這意味著，如果匯率今天貶值，例如貶值 90 智利比索，可能會對未來 12 到 18 個月的通貨膨脹產生約 100 到 150 個基點的潛在影響。

So we think that the evolution of the exchange rate will be a key factor to monitor. But if we assume an economic growth of around 2% for this and the next year, a relatively stable level of FX, it could be consistent with an inflation rate of around 3.8% and 3% for this and the next year, respectively. In terms of the final part, Pablo is going to take the final part of the question.

因此我們認為匯率的演變將是一個需要監控的關鍵因素。但如果我們假設今年和明年的經濟成長率都在 2% 左右，外匯水準相對穩定，那麼今年和明年的通貨膨脹率可能分別在 3.8% 和 3% 左右。至於最後一部分，Pablo 將回答這個問題的最後一部分。

So in terms of how we've been funding the bank, it's changed over the years, especially that our -- if you look at as an amount in terms of the UF GAP on the balance sheet, we're a larger bank. And then there's two parts to this. One is the structural part and one is the positions taken by the treasury. So the structural part is somewhere around the CLP5 billion, CLP6 billion and which means we have more assets than liabilities in UF, and there's a structural part from the capital, structural part from the demand deposits, which are in pesos.

因此，就我們為銀行提供資金的方式而言，這些年來已經發生了變化，特別是——如果你從資產負債表上的 UF GAP 金額來看，我們是一家規模更大的銀行。這又分為兩個部分。一個是結構部分，一個是財政部所持的立場。因此，結構部分大約在 50 億智利比索、60 億智利比索左右，這意味著我們在 UF 的資產多於負債，並且還有來自資本的結構部分，來自活期存款的結構部分，以比索為單位。

And that would be the structural CLP5 billion to CLP6 billion that we have on the balance sheet. And the rest of this position is a treasury position, which is based on the expectations of our treasury on the evolution of inflation, if rates -- interest rates in the different currencies make sense for what they're expecting and how they should fund the bank. So the expectations of the treasury department have led to an increase -- a temporary increase in terms of the gap on the balance sheet, and that's what we saw at the close of this first quarter.

這就是我們資產負債表上結構性的 50 億至 60 億智利比索。該頭寸的其餘部分是財政頭寸，它基於我們財政部對通貨膨脹演變的預期，以及不同貨幣的利率是否符合他們的預期以及他們應該如何為銀行提供資金。因此，財政部的預期導致了資產負債表缺口的暫時增加，這就是我們在第一季末看到的情況。

So how that will evolve in the future will really depend on the evolution of the expectations of our treasury department. But as of today, it's been very successful in generating a greater return in terms of this source of revenues. So the structural gap around CLP5 billion or CLP6 billion. The rest is around -- is a treasury position, and that's based on expectations and temporary factors.

因此，未來如何發展實際上取決於我們財政部的期望的演變。但截至今天，它已經非常成功地在這個收入來源上產生了更大的回報。因此結構性缺口約 50 億智利比索或 60 億智利比索。其餘的是財務狀況，這是基於預期和暫時因素的。

Could you please repeat the sensitivity that you mentioned earlier --

您能否重複一下您之前提到的敏感性--

The sensitivity of 1% change in the UF GAP. Today, we have a UF -- or at the end of the quarter, we had a UF GAP of CLP9.7 trillion, so 1% change in inflation is CLP97 billion in net interest income.

UF GAP 的靈敏度為 1% 變化。今天，我們有一個 UF——或者在本季末，我們的 UF 缺口為 9.7 兆智利比索，因此通貨膨脹率 1% 的變化意味著淨利息收入為 970 億智利比索。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Andres Soto, Santander.

安德烈斯·索托，桑坦德。

My question is regarding your medium-term ROE target. I see on your presentation on Slide number 9 that your medium-term target is to be top one versus top two right now, you're trailing your main competitor. So I would like to understand how are you seeing ROE evolving in the medium term given that you continue to deliver above average levels of ROE and considering your structural changes in terms of loan growth -- sorry, in terms of loan composition and in terms of expenses, also considering a significant drop in headcount that we have seen since the pandemic.

我的問題是關於您的中期 ROE 目標。我在第 9 張投影片的簡報中看到，您的中期目標是成為前兩名，而現在，您落後於主要競爭對手。因此，我想了解一下，鑑於貴行繼續提供高於平均水平的 ROE，並且考慮到貴行在貸款增長方面的結構性變化（抱歉，是在貸款構成和支出方面），同時考慮到自疫情爆發以來員工人數的大幅下降，您認為中期 ROE 將如何變化。

So I would like to understand if Banco de Chile is expecting to be able to deliver, let's say, around 20% or even above 20% ROE over the medium term considering that, that's sort of the expectation that your main competitor has been stating.

因此，我想了解智利銀行是否預計能夠在中期內實現約 20% 甚至更高的 ROE，因為這正是你們主要競爭對手所表達的預期。

Thank you, Andres. So in terms of our ambition, our ambition is to be the most profitable bank in Chile in all cycles. Obviously, it depends on the cycle and what the expectations of each bank is for that cycle and return to growth of the economy. So that's our long-term expectation. Ambition is the most profitable bank. So we have the robust capital base in order to navigate the potential regulatory changes and to hopefully take on growth when growth comes back.

謝謝你，安德烈斯。因此，就我們的目標而言，我們的目標是成為智利在所有周期中盈利能力最強的銀行。顯然，這取決於週期以及每家銀行對該週期和經濟恢復成長的預期。這就是我們的長期期望。野心是最賺錢的銀行。因此，我們擁有強大的資本基礎，能夠應對潛在的監管變化，並有望在經濟恢復成長時實現成長。

So it's very important to mention that we have the capital to grow if we need to. And that will obviously promote an attractive ROE for us in the future. So I think that would be the most important to mention is that our ambition or long-term ambition with everything that we're doing is to be the most profitable bank in Chile. For this year, we've revised our ROE forecast up or ROAC forecast up to around 20% from the previous levels because of everything that we mentioned in the presentation.

因此，值得一提的是，如果需要的話，我們有足夠的資本來發展。這顯然會在未來為我們帶來有吸引力的 ROE。因此，我認為最重要的是，我們所做的一切的目標或長期目標是成為智利最賺錢的銀行。對於今年，由於我們在演示中提到的所有內容，我們將 ROE 預測或 ROAC 預測從先前的水平上調至 20% 左右。

And the cost of risk today is around -- we're expecting around 1.1% which should be somewhere similar to those levels, 1.1%, 1.2%. If we go back to the same mix that we had in the past. So the position of the bank today allows us to continue to grow in an important manner in the future, if that's available, and that will allow us to continue posting attractive returns.

今天的風險成本大約是——我們預計在 1.1% 左右，應該與那些水準相似，1.1%、1.2%。如果我們回到過去的相同組合。因此，如果可能的話，銀行目前的地位使我們能夠在未來繼續以重要的方式成長，並且這將使我們能夠繼續獲得可觀的回報。

And regarding the loan growth comments that you are making, what will be a reasonable number for loan growth over the medium term or even in 2026. 2025, you say it's going to be a lag between recovering private investment and that to be translated in terms of loan growth. But for 2026, can we expect high single-digit level of loan growth? Or what is the multiplier that you are seeing to loan growth once those factors abate?

關於您對貸款成長的評論，中期甚至 2026 年貸款成長的合理數字是多少？您說 2025 年私人投資復甦和貸款成長之間會存在一個滯後。但到 2026 年，我們能預期貸款成長率將達到個位數的高水準嗎？或者，一旦這些因素消失，您認為貸款成長的乘數是多少？

I think there's uncertainties because of everything that's happening, much more today than there were three months ago or six months ago. And what we would expect is that there's a lot of piped up demand in the pipeline. So this could increase maybe higher than the levels of GDP/loan elasticity than we've had in the last period. And maybe Rodrigo can go into a little bit more detail in terms of the macro scenarios on how that could occur.

我認為，由於正在發生的一切，存在著不確定性，今天的不確定性比三個月前或六個月前要多得多。我們預計，管道中將有大量的需求。因此，此增幅可能高於上一時期的 GDP/貸款彈性水準。也許羅德里戈可以從宏觀角度更詳細地闡述這種情況如何發生。

Yes. Andres, thank you for the question. So I think it's important to analyze some structural trends that we've seen in Chile in terms of loans, especially during the last year. So for example, today, the ratio between loans to GDP, it's around 75% around that, but it was before the pension fund withdrawal, before the pandemic that number was between 85% and even 90%.

是的。安德烈斯，謝謝你的提問。因此，我認為分析智利貸款方面的一些結構性趨勢非常重要，尤其是去年的趨勢。例如，今天貸款與 GDP 比率約為 75%，但在退休金提取之前，在疫情爆發之前，這個數字在 85% 甚至 90% 之間。

So we've seen an important delay in terms of the loan cycle compared to the cycle of the GDP. So when we adjust by any long-term measure, we would see that given the level of the GDP of Chile, given the GDP expectations as well, the level of loans should be higher than the level that we have today. We've seen an important delay, for example, in terms of commercial loans because of the lack of investment in Chile, a similar situation we have in terms of consumer loans, we have to understand as well that still the interest rate is in a contractionary level.

因此，我們發現貸款週期與 GDP 週期相比有顯著延遲。因此，當我們根據任何長期指標進行調整時，我們都會發現，考慮到智利的 GDP 水準以及 GDP 預期，貸款水準應該高於我們今天的水準。例如，由於智利缺乏投資，商業貸款出現了嚴重的延遲，消費貸款也出現了類似的情況，我們也必須明白，利率仍然處於收縮水平。

So it's reasonable to expect a recovery of loans in the future. In terms of multiplier of elasticity, despite -- in the past, we used to see levels of around 2 times, but today the scenario is different. But it's reasonable to expect numbers higher than 1 time, probably 1.4 times, 1.5 times. We don't know it depends what's going to happen in the future.

因此，預期未來貸款將會復甦是合理的。就彈性乘數而言，儘管——過去我們常常看到2倍左右的水平，但今天的情況有所不同。但預期數字高於 1 倍是合理的，可能是 1.4 倍、1.5 倍。我們不知道這取決於未來會發生什麼。

But if we assume that the economy could grow between 2% and 2.5% for the next year, plus an inflation rate between 3% and 3.5%, something like that, plus the elasticity -- a more normalized elasticity of loans to GDP, it would be reasonable to expect loans for the system growing in high single digits over the next years.

但是，如果我們假設明年經濟能夠成長 2% 至 2.5% 之間，加上通貨膨脹率在 3% 至 3.5% 之間，再加上彈性——貸款與 GDP 的更正常化的彈性，那麼可以合理地預期，未來幾年該系統的貸款將以高個位數增長。

Thank you very much. I will now hand it to Pablo and Rodrigo for the closing remarks.

非常感謝。現在我將把發言權交給 Pablo 和 Rodrigo，請他們致閉幕詞。

Thanks for listening, and we look forward to speak with you on our next quarterly results. Bye.

感謝您的聆聽，我們期待與您討論下一季的業績。再見。

This concludes the call. Thank you, and have a nice day.

通話到此結束。謝謝，祝您有愉快的一天。