Banco de Chile (BCH) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Banco de Chile's Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. If you need a copy of the management financial review, it is available on the company's website.

    大家下午好,歡迎來到智利銀行 2022 年第四季度業績電話會議。如果您需要管理財務審查的副本,可以在公司網站上找到。

  • Today with us, we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, the Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer; Mr. Paolo Meja, Head of Investor Relations; and Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital; and Natalia Lee, Investor Relations Specialist.

    今天和我們在一起的是首席經濟學家兼機構關係官 Rodrigo Aravena 先生;投資者關係主管Paolo Meja先生;財務控制和資本主管 Daniel Galarce;和投資者關係專家 Natalia Lee。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and that the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All the projections are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead, sir. The floor is yours.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,此電話正在錄音中,今天討論的信息可能包括有關公司財務和經營業績的前瞻性陳述。所有預測都存在風險和不確定性,實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱公司新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的詳細說明。我現在將電話轉給 Rodrigo Aravena 先生。請繼續,先生。地板是你的。

  • Rodrigo Aravena - Chief Economist & Senior VP of Institutional Relations

    Rodrigo Aravena - Chief Economist & Senior VP of Institutional Relations

  • Good afternoon. Thank you very much for attending this conference call, where we will reveal the main accomplishments achieved by our bank during the fourth quarter and the full year of 2022. In this call, we will also share our business analysis and guidance for 2023. Before reviewing the economic environment, I'd like to share with you some of our main achievements during the last year. Please go to Slide #2.

    下午好。非常感謝您參加本次電話會議,屆時我們將公佈我行在 2022 年第四季度和全年取得的主要成就。在本次電話會議中,我們還將分享我們對 2023 年的業務分析和指導。在回顧之前在經濟環境方面,我想與大家分享一下去年我們取得的一些主要成就。請轉到幻燈片#2。

  • 2022 was an outstanding year for Banco de Chile when we undoubtedly reaffirm our leadership in the Chilean banking industry, not only financial performance but also in many other key strategic aspects when compared to our competitors. Even though we will go over our main accomplishments as we review this presentation, I'd like to briefly highlight some of them. On the financial side, we achieved a historical bottom line of CLP 1,409 billion, equivalent to an ROE of 31.4%, well above the industry average. After getting the bottom line by the transitory and non-recurring effect of higher inflation rate in the equity value, ROE, which have been 19%, well above the rest of the peers, but more in line with our historical figures.

    2022 年對智利銀行來說是傑出的一年,我們無疑重申了我們在智利銀行業的領導地位,不僅是財務業績,而且與我們的競爭對手相比,在許多其他關鍵戰略方面也是如此。儘管我們將在回顧本演示文稿時回顧我們的主要成就,但我還是想簡要地強調其中的一些。財務方面,我們取得中電14,090億元的歷史底線,相當於31.4%的股本回報率,遠高於行業平均水平。在通過較高通脹率對股權價值的暫時性和非經常性影響得出底線後,ROE 達到 19%,遠高於其他同行,但更符合我們的歷史數據。

  • Our growth in operating income was accompanied by a historical efficiency ratio of 52% and [indiscernible] figures also positioning us better than our peers. 2022 was also a year where we strengthened our partial position even more, but reach a base ratio of 18% were above both the regulatory Fresca and our main competitors. Moreover, we increased our additional provisions to an unprecedented amount of CLP 700 billion, achieving a coverage ratio of 3.7x our non-performing loans, allowing us to be even more prepared to face negative cycles.

    我們營業收入的增長伴隨著 52% 的歷史效率比,[音頻不清晰] 數據也使我們處於比同行更好的位置。 2022 年也是我們進一步加強部分地位的一年,但達到 18% 的基本比率高於監管 Fresca 和我們的主要競爭對手。此外,我們將額外準備金增加至前所未有的 7,000 億中電,覆蓋率達到 3.7 倍的不良貸款,使我們能夠更好地應對負週期。

  • Additionally, we took important steps in our sustainability pillars. Apart from permanent activity supporting the community, we made numerous environmental, social and governance improvements, which allow us to be the best bank in Entres rating in Chile according to Sustainalytics and received several recognitions. Finally, we made important advances in our digital transformation process, which has been a critical piece to maintaining the best rate of customer service, improving productivity and strongly contributing to promoting financial inclusion in Chile.

    此外,我們在可持續發展支柱方面採取了重要步驟。除了支持社區的長期活動外,我們還進行了許多環境、社會和治理方面的改進,這使我們成為根據 Sustainalytics 評定的智利 Entres 評級中最好的銀行,並獲得了多項認可。最後,我們在數字化轉型過程中取得了重要進展,這對於保持最佳客戶服務率、提高生產力和大力促進智利的金融普惠至關重要。

  • As I mentioned, we will develop these and other activities during this presentation. But before that, I'd like to share our view for the Chilean economy. Please move to Slide #4. The Chilean growth has continued to weaken as the chart on the top left clearly shows. Generally, this trend is attributable to 3 main factors: first, the removal of several temporary indiscernible implemented during the pandemic as the 52% rise in fiscal standing and the withdrawal of more than CLP 50 million from pension funds. Consequently, the absence of further fiscal liquidity measures in 2022 contributed to reducing disposable income and domestic demand. A single factor has been the light of fact of the tightening in the monetary policy rate, which rose by 1,075 basis points between July 2021 and November last year.

    正如我提到的,我們將在本次演示期間開展這些活動和其他活動。但在此之前,我想分享一下我們對智利經濟的看法。請移至幻燈片 #4。正如左上角的圖表清楚地顯示的那樣,智利的增長繼續減弱。總的來說,這一趨勢歸因於 3 個主要因素:首先,由於財政狀況增加了 52% 以及從養老基金中提取了超過 5000 萬菲律賓比索,取消了在大流行期間實施的幾個臨時不可辨認的計劃。因此,2022 年缺乏進一步的財政流動性措施導致可支配收入和國內需求減少。一個因素是貨幣政策利率收緊這一事實,該利率在 2021 年 7 月至去年 11 月期間上升了 1,075 個基點。

  • Finally, some local factors, especially those related to political uncertainty has also reduced economic growth. In this environment, the GDP fell by 1.8% year-on-year in the 4th quarter, posting the first negative annual figure since the 2nd quarter 2020 as the other left chart shows. This slowdown has been explained by the fall in commerce and industry sectors, which fell by 8.4% year-on-year and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively.

    最後,一些當地因素,尤其是與政治不確定性相關的因素,也降低了經濟增長。在此環境下,第四季度 GDP 同比下降 1.8%,如左圖所示,自 2020 年第二季度以來首次出現負年度數據。這種放緩的原因是商業和工業部門的下滑,分別同比下降 8.4% 和 5.5%。

  • Other cyclical sectors such as construction, have also been negatively affected. On the other hand, services have steadily risen in line with greater levels of mobility due to the ease in sanitary condition since last year. On a sequential basis, as can be seen in the chart of the other right, the slowdown has been also evident.

    建築等其他週期性行業也受到負面影響。另一方面,由於去年以來衛生條件的改善,服務隨著流動性的提高而穩步上升。在順序的基礎上,如右圖所示,放緩也很明顯。

  • In fact, the activity levels posted in December of 2022, for instance, was 1% below the figure posted 1 year ago, reflecting that the economy didn't grow last year. The in effect, which is the monthly (inaudible) figures breakdown shows that all sector declined sequentially during the year. Despite the average unemployment rate in 2022 was 7.9%, 130 basis points below the figure posted 1 year ago, it's important to be aware of the degradation in the labour market, for instance.

    事實上,例如,2022 年 12 月公佈的活動水平比一年前公佈的數字低 1%,反映出去年經濟沒有增長。實際上,月度(聽不清)數字細目顯示所有部門在年內連續下降。儘管 2022 年的平均失業率為 7.9%,比一年前的數字低 130 個基點,但重要的是要意識到勞動力市場的惡化。

  • The weak expansion of the labour force has reduced the number of unemployed people. Therefore, the lower unemployment rate when compared to 2021 is a consequence of demographic changes rather than a greater dynamism in the economy. Additionally, real wages continue to fall minus 2.3% year-on-year in November due to the higher growth in CDI compared to the expansion in nominal wages.

    勞動力擴張乏力,減少了失業人數。因此,與 2021 年相比較低的失業率是人口變化的結果,而不是經濟活力增強的結果。此外,由於 CDI 的增長高於名義工資的增長,11 月實際工資繼續同比下降 -2.3%。

  • Finally, the formality wage has remained around 26% above the level of serve some years ago, suggesting a potential deterioration in the quality of jobs. However, the sub-growth is contributing to reducing the macroeconomic imbalances of wide band during the pandemic. Specifically, at the chart of the bottom right displays, the trade balance has been improving, led by higher exports and lower imports, anticipating a lower deficit in the current account in the short term.

    最後,正式工資仍比幾年前的服務水平高出 26% 左右,這表明工作質量可能會惡化。然而,次級增長有助於減少大流行期間宏觀經濟的廣泛失衡。具體來說,在右下角的圖表中,貿易平衡一直在改善,出口增加和進口減少,預計短期內經常賬戶赤字將減少。

  • This trend should anticipate a normalization in external accounts, which is a fundamental pillar for macro-sustainability. This adjustment in the business cycle have been accompanied by changes in different prices as we will see in the next slide, #5.

    這一趨勢應該預示著外部賬戶的正常化,這是宏觀可持續性的基本支柱。商業周期的這種調整伴隨著不同價格的變化,我們將在下一張幻燈片 #5 中看到。

  • Following the global trend, the CPI had an impressive rise last year. Particularly in 2022, the inflation ended the year at 12.8%, achieving the highest figure since 1991. The trend as observed in the chart located on the top left was a consequence of (inaudible) drivers. First, the higher global inflation, a factor that is particularly relevant for a novel of Chile, where tradable goods represent more than 60% of the total CDI basket. A second factor was the depreciation of the Chilean Peso, especially in the first half of last year, as you can see in the bottom right chart.

    順應全球趨勢,去年CPI漲幅可觀。特別是在 2022 年,通貨膨脹率為 12.8%,達到 1991 年以來的最高水平。左上角圖表中觀察到的趨勢是(聽不清)驅動因素的結果。首先,全球通貨膨脹率上升,這是一個與智利小說特別相關的因素,可貿易商品佔 CDI 總籃子的 60% 以上。第二個因素是智利比索貶值,尤其是在去年上半年,如右下圖所示。

  • Finally, the substantial increase in domestic demand due to the (inaudible) implemented during the pandemic played a critical role in non-tradable pressures. Additionally, it's also important to be aware of the high indexation in Chile since several prices are set in U.S. which could have further persistence to the CDI. Downward trend in domestic prices led to an important adjustment in local interest rates, especially during the first half of the year. Part of the explanation behind the trend was the material adjustment in the overhead rate, which rose from only 3.5% in July 2021 to a regular figure of 11.25% November last year as the (inaudible) reflects. In fact, the monetary policy in Chile has been one of the most tightened in the world in the cycle. Nevertheless, the long-term rate has been falling, anticipating a weaker growth this year as well as a potential (inaudible) cycle in monetary policy over the next quarters.

    最後,由於大流行期間實施的(聽不清)導致國內需求大幅增加,在非貿易壓力中發揮了關鍵作用。此外,了解智利的高指數化也很重要,因為美國設定了多個價格,這可能會進一步影響 CDI。國內物價的下行趨勢導致當地利率出現重大調整,尤其是在上半年。這一趨勢背後的部分解釋是間接費用率的重大調整,從 2021 年 7 月的僅 3.5% 上升到去年 11 月 11.25% 的常規數字(聽不清)。事實上,智利的貨幣政策一直是周期中全球最緊縮的貨幣政策之一。儘管如此,長期利率一直在下降,預計今年增長將放緩,以及未來幾個季度可能出現(聽不清)貨幣政策週期。

  • Despite the weaker cycle, The Chilean Peso has strengthened during the last month. Some of the external factors such as better copper prices and the weakening of dollar globally in addition to local factors such as the slight improvement in sundries have contributed to strengthening the Chilean Peso. Among the factors that have reduced uncertainty is the mechanism defined for the incoming contributional process to be held this year, which will consider the participation of both elected people and constitutional efforts in elaborating the proposal. This mechanism, coupled with some borders defined for the discussions such as (inaudible) towers to review the possibility of institutional weakening in the country. It is well known that an applicated design of counterweight can make the difference in the long term.

    儘管週期較弱,但智利比索在上個月有所走強。一些外部因素,如銅價上漲和全球美元疲軟,以及本地因素,如雜項略有改善,都有助於加強智利比索。減少不確定性的因素之一是為今年即將舉行的貢獻進程定義的機制,該機制將考慮當選人的參與和憲法在製定提案方面的努力。這種機制,加上為討論定義的一些邊界,例如(聽不清)塔,以審查該國體制削弱的可能性。眾所周知,配重的應用設計可以長期發揮作用。

  • Now I'd like to move to our forecast for this year. Please move to Slide #6. We expect the (inaudible) this year to fall by 1.4% after a 2.7% expansion in 2022. These figures were sold from a U-shaped trend in activity with negative annual expansion rate between 4th quarter 2022 and second quarter of this year as a result of the normalization of temporary factors that increased the growth, as I mentioned previously. This forecast consequently is consistent with a gradual recovery in activity since the second half of this year. This slowdown and the recent strengthening of the currency should contribute to reducing pressures on prices.

    現在我想談談我們對今年的預測。請移至幻燈片#6。我們預計今年(聽不清)在 2022 年增長 2.7% 之後將下降 1.4%。這些數字是從 2022 年第四季度到今年第二季度之間年增長率為負的 U 形活動趨勢中得出的正如我之前提到的,增加增長的臨時因素正常化的結果。因此,這一預測與今年下半年以來經濟活動的逐步復甦是一致的。這種放緩和最近的貨幣走強應該有助於減輕價格壓力。

  • In our baseline scenario, the overall inflation will fall from 12.8% last year to 4.8% this year with a potential convergence to the 3% quality target only by 2024. Given these figures, we see room for lower monetary policy interest rate in the near future. Despite the neutral buyer that the Central Bank has adopted in the last monetary policy meeting, we believe that the conjunction of lower growth and inflation will leave room to reduce the interest rate to nearly 6% by the end of this year.

    在我們的基線情景中,總體通脹將從去年的 12.8% 下降到今年的 4.8%,並可能在 2024 年之前趨同於 3% 的質量目標。鑑於這些數據,我們認為短期內有降低貨幣政策利率的空間未來。儘管央行在上次貨幣政策會議上採取了中性買家的態度,但我們認為,較低的增長和通脹的結合將為今年年底將利率降至近 6% 留下空間。

  • All these forecasts are subject to risk. In addition to global uncertainties where Chinese dynamism is a key driver for Chile and geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe could produce some noises in international prices, we have to pay attention to the evolution of some local factors as well, especially those related to political and institutional aspects. Some of them include the evolution of some reforms that are currently under discussion in Chile, such as the tax and pension bills as well as the ongoing constitutional process. The evolution of these factors will be critical to the length and deepness of the recession that we currently face.

    所有這些預測都存在風險。除了中國活力是智利的主要驅動力的全球不確定性以及東歐地緣政治衝突可能在國際價格中產生一些噪音外,我們還必須關註一些當地因素的演變,尤其是那些與政治和製度相關的因素方面。其中一些包括智利目前正在討論的一些改革的演變,例如稅收和養老金法案以及正在進行的憲法程序。這些因素的演變對於我們目前面臨的衰退的持續時間和深度至關重要。

  • Before moving to Banco de Chile's discussion, I'd like to briefly discuss the evolution of local banking industry. Please flip to Slide #7. 2022 was a profitable period for the banking industry, posting stronger nominal results than the prior year. However, inflation was the main driver for this result. And as you will see later in the presentation, the true profitability adjusted by the loss of purchasing power due to the high level of CDI, which Chile has experienced is substantially lower than the 21% for the banking industry in 2022.

    在進入智利銀行的討論之前,我想簡要討論一下當地銀行業的演變。請翻到幻燈片#7。 2022 年是銀行業的盈利時期,名義業績強於上年。然而,通貨膨脹是這一結果的主要驅動因素。正如您稍後將在演示文稿中看到的那樣,智利經歷的高 CDI 導致購買力損失調整後的真實盈利能力遠低於 2022 年銀行業的 21%。

  • The cost of higher CDI is also reflected in asset quality, where for the last 2 quarters in a row, the industry has seen an upward trend in loan loss provisions, as shown on the chart on the bottom right. Loan growth in real term has also weakened, as shown by the chart on the bottom left, inflation in several sources of uncertainty have impacted demand. For 2023, we expect a weak real growth of around 1%, driven by mortgage and consoles. Now I'd like to pass the call to Pablo, who will go into more detail about Banco de Chile's strategy and financial performance.

    較高的 CDI 成本也反映在資產質量上,過去兩個季度,該行業的貸款損失準備金呈上升趨勢,如右下圖所示。實際貸款增長也有所減弱,如左下圖所示,多個不確定性來源的通脹影響了需求。對於 2023 年,我們預計在抵押貸款和遊戲機的推動下,實際增長將疲軟,約為 1%。現在我想將電話轉給 Pablo,他將更詳細地介紹智利銀行的戰略和財務業績。

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Rodrigo. Please go to Slide #9. The strong results that we have consistently, have been the product of our sound strategic pillars based on customer centricity, productivity and sustainability. To reach our midterm targets, we have established 6 core priorities.

    謝謝,羅德里戈。請轉到幻燈片#9。我們始終如一的強勁業績是我們基於以客戶為中心、生產力和可持續性的健全戰略支柱的產物。為了實現我們的中期目標,我們制定了 6 個核心優先事項。

  • In the next slide, we will review some of these advances that we have been making. Please move to Slide #10, where I'll highlight some of our digital bank's investments. Our strategic ambition at Banco de Chile is to deliver the best customer experience and to provide the best digital banking platforms to clients in Chile. During 2022, we strengthened existing platforms and continued implementing innovative digital solutions.

    在下一張幻燈片中,我們將回顧我們已經取得的一些進展。請轉到幻燈片 #10,我將在其中重點介紹我們數字銀行的一些投資。我們在 Banco de Chile 的戰略目標是提供最佳的客戶體驗,並為智利的客戶提供最佳的數字銀行平台。 2022 年,我們加強了現有平台並繼續實施創新的數字解決方案。

  • We are proud to highlight that Quentin account has reached over 1 million clients as of December 31, 2022, by adding approximately 350,000 customers in this period. Another relevant aspect is that despite the quick growth of this product, we grew our customers by almost 50% this year without affecting our customer satisfaction levels. Among our other advances in 2022, we launched 3 new digital products to promote customer onboarding and financial inclusion, digital current account, (inaudible)

    我們很自豪地強調,截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日,Quentin 賬戶的客戶已超過 100 萬,在此期間增加了約 350,000 名客戶。另一個相關方面是,儘管該產品增長迅速,但我們今年的客戶增長了近 50%,而沒有影響我們的客戶滿意度。在我們 2022 年的其他進步中,我們推出了 3 種新的數字產品,以促進客戶入職和普惠金融、數字活期賬戶、(聽不清)

  • The new digital current account was launched in the first half of the year and there's a full bank account with the possibility to open other products such as lines of credit and credit cards. Fund (inaudible) is a fully digital account for teenagers between 14 and 17 years old with the purpose to build strong relationships, early in the customers' life cycle. And (inaudible) is a digital account for SMEs that has no entrance or maintenance fees and gives access to exclusive benefits for small businesses.

    新的數字活期賬戶於今年上半年推出,有一個完整的銀行賬戶,可以開立其他產品,如信用額度和信用卡。 Fund(聽不清)是一個面向 14 至 17 歲青少年的全數字賬戶,目的是在客戶生命週期的早期建立牢固的關係。並且(聽不清)是一個面向中小企業的數字賬戶,沒有入會費或維護費,並為小企業提供獨家優惠。

  • All of these products are in line with our aspirations of growing our clients and also promoting financial inclusion. Furthermore, among other initiatives, we released several upgrades and innovations in our apps. As shown on the right side of this slide, we launched an improved investment that allows our clients to invest easily worldwide, and we made an alliance with other important institutions to facilitate the monetary transactions between clients of these 2 banks using telephone numbers and QR codes. In addition, we made important upgrades in our (inaudible) MiBanco, such as withdrawing funds from ATMs without the need of a physical card, providing online loan simulations and also approving these consumer loans online.

    所有這些產品都符合我們發展客戶和促進普惠金融的願望。此外,除其他舉措外,我們還在應用程序中發布了多項升級和創新。如本幻燈片右側所示,我們推出了一項改進的投資,使我們的客戶可以在全球範圍內輕鬆投資,我們與其他重要機構結成聯盟,以促進這兩家銀行的客戶之間使用電話號碼和二維碼進行貨幣交易.此外,我們對我們的(聽不清)MiBanco 進行了重要升級,例如無需實體卡即可從 ATM 取款、提供在線貸款模擬以及在線批准這些消費貸款。

  • Likewise, we added new functionalities in our app for enterprises called (inaudible). Finally, we are honoured by our advances in digital banking, together with our permanent focus on providing the best customer experience led us to be recognized by the European as the most innovative digital bank in Chile and by the digital newspaper focused on the financial industry and Chilean consumers called (inaudible) as having the best digital banking solution in the country. Please move to Slide 11.

    同樣,我們在名為(聽不清)的企業應用程序中添加了新功能。最後,我們為自己在數字銀行業務方面的進步感到榮幸,加上我們始終專注於提供最佳客戶體驗,這使我們被歐洲認可為智利最具創新性的數字銀行,並被專注於金融行業的數字報紙和智利消費者稱(聽不清)擁有該國最好的數字銀行解決方案。請移至幻燈片 11。

  • We continued implementing changes and initiatives to reduce expenses and improve our operations in line with our efficiency and productivity objectives. We introduced a new purchase model, which uses an electronic auction and tender processes to increase competition among potential providers while ensuring transparency and cycle times. Additionally, we've made several negotiations to fulfil all banking functions proactively through the annual purchase plan, which generated savings of approximately $20 million. And finally, regarding our cost reduction process, we have developed optimization projects that cover diverse aspects such as our branch footprint analysis, savings and energy costs while optimizing consolidating service purchases at the corporate level.

    我們繼續實施變革和舉措,以根據我們的效率和生產力目標減少開支並改善我們的運營。我們引入了一種新的採購模式,該模式使用電子拍賣和招標流程來增加潛在供應商之間的競爭,同時確保透明度和周期時間。此外,我們還進行了多次談判,以通過年度採購計劃主動履行所有銀行職能,從而節省了大約 2000 萬美元。最後,關於我們的成本降低流程,我們開發了涵蓋多個方面的優化項目,例如我們的分支機構足跡分析、節約和能源成本,同時優化公司層面的整合服務採購。

  • On the productivity side, due to the retail sales excellence time, we increased consumer credit loan originations by 45% year-on-year, while maintaining our account managers headcount flat. This impressive figure was a fruit of a set of improvements such as the standardization of commercial processes, the digitalization of sales and refocusing intelligence of commercial campaigns.

    在生產力方面,由於零售銷售表現出色,我們的消費信貸發放同比增加了 45%,同時客戶經理人數保持不變。這個令人印象深刻的數字是一系列改進的成果,例如商業流程的標準化、銷售數字化和商業活動的重新聚焦智能化。

  • Due to the successful implementation of the productivity projects on our retail business, the bank decided to extend and adopt these initiatives to the SME banking segment that partly achieved good results as the increase of 25% in originations per account manager. Thanks to these and other actions previously implemented, we ended the year with the best efficiency ratio amongst our peers in Chile.

    由於在我們的零售業務中成功實施了生產力項目,該銀行決定將這些舉措擴展並採用到中小企業銀行業務部門,這在一定程度上取得了良好的效果,每位客戶經理的發起業務增加了 25%。由於採取了這些措施以及之前實施的其他措施,我們以智利同行中效率比最高的成績結束了這一年。

  • We also accomplished important advances in ESG, as we'll discuss in the next Slide #12. During 2022, we had taken important steps towards strengthening our sustainability strategy. We have proactively been reinforcing the development of social, environmental and governance initiatives, some of which are presented on this slide. We developed a sustainability financing framework to issue ESG-related bonds and to finance projects with positive impacts. In addition, we created a sustainability committee led by the CEO to boost our ESG strategy and launched the Blue Commitment Program to promote our green products.

    我們還在 ESG 方面取得了重要進展,我們將在下一張幻燈片 #12 中討論。 2022 年,我們採取了重要步驟來加強我們的可持續發展戰略。我們一直在積極加強社會、環境和治理舉措的發展,其中一些舉措已在本幻燈片中介紹。我們制定了可持續發展融資框架,以發行與 ESG 相關的債券並為具有積極影響的項目提供資金。此外,我們成立了一個由首席執行官領導的可持續發展委員會,以推進我們的 ESG 戰略,並啟動了藍色承諾計劃以推廣我們的綠色產品。

  • Last year, we also continued boosting our social and environmental initiatives such as our financial education courses, tournaments to promote entrepreneurship, volunteering programs to support social organizations, carrying support (inaudible) Those programs directly benefit over 44,000 people. It's also worth mentioning that we have the largest corporate volume (inaudible) program in Chile, in which almost 10,000 employees participated as volunteers at the (inaudible) event in 2022.

    去年,我們還繼續推進我們的社會和環境舉措,例如我們的金融教育課程、促進創業的錦標賽、支持社會組織的志願服務計劃、攜帶支持(聽不清)這些計劃直接使 44,000 多人受益。還值得一提的是,我們在智利擁有最大的企業規模(聽不清)計劃,其中近 10,000 名員工作為志願者參加了 2022 年的(聽不清)活動。

  • Finally, our permanent focus on improving diverse ESG aspects of our business, we were recognized as the best bank for financial inclusion by the European and the third best company in ESG in Chile according to the Corporate Reputation Business monitoring company called Medco based in Spain, among other recognitions.

    最後,我們始終專注於改善我們業務的不同 ESG 方面,根據總部位於西班牙的名為 Medco 的企業聲譽業務監測公司,我們被歐洲公認為金融包容性最佳銀行和智利 ESG 最佳公司第三名,除其他認可外。

  • In addition, we are very proud to have received tremendous upgrade in our ESG risk ratings by (inaudible) that went from a medium risk to a low risk, placed us first amongst banks in Chile. This recognition demonstrates that we are advanced in the right direction as a responsible institution that contributes to the development of the country and its people.

    此外,我們非常自豪地獲得了 ESG 風險評級的大幅提升(聽不清),從中等風險升至低風險,使我們在智利的銀行中排名第一。這一認可表明我們作為一個負責任的機構正朝著正確的方向前進,為國家和人民的發展做出貢獻。

  • Please turn to Slide 14 to go into detail about Banco de Chile's financial performance. 2022 has proven exceptionally profitable for the banking industry in nominal terms, as evidenced by the chart to the left, where we led the sector with over 30% nominal ROE. Our competitive advantages, consistent strategy of strong governance practices have been key for our success. Accordingly, we took the proper actions during the pandemic and that translated into record results we are witnessing today in this environment of high inflation, interest rates and liquidity. However, it's important to be aware of the transitory impact generated by the high level of inflation on profitability. Since 2009, the nominal effect of inflation and the Chilean gap similar to IFRS does not take into consideration the full impact of inflation on income or the balance sheet.

    請轉到幻燈片 14 詳細了解 Banco de Chile 的財務業績。事實證明,2022 年銀行業在名義上非常有利可圖,如左圖所示,我們以超過 30% 的名義股本回報率領先該行業。我們的競爭優勢、強有力的治理實踐的一貫戰略是我們成功的關鍵。因此,我們在大流行期間採取了適當的行動,並轉化為我們今天在高通脹、高利率和高流動性環境中目睹的創紀錄成果。然而,重要的是要意識到高水平的通貨膨脹對盈利能力產生的暫時影響。自 2009 年以來,通貨膨脹的名義影響與智利的差距類似,IFRS 並未考慮通貨膨脹對收入或資產負債表的全面影響。

  • When we consider the effective inflation on equity to recognize the loss in purchasing power, profitability becomes much more aligned with our long-term figures. The chart on the right demonstrates the inflation adjusted ROE from the main Chilean bank, considering the impact of inflation on equity by deducting the effective price level restatement of capital in the income statement. In our view, this measure provides a clear perspective of real profitability as it shows the full economic value that is generated by maintaining the real value of equity after considering the negative impact of inflation on its nominal value.

    當我們考慮股權的有效通貨膨脹來確認購買力的損失時,盈利能力與我們的長期數據更加一致。右圖顯示了智利主要銀行的通貨膨脹調整後淨資產收益率,考慮了通貨膨脹對權益的影響,扣除了損益表中資本的有效價格水平重述。我們認為,該指標提供了一個清晰的實際盈利能力視角,因為它顯示了在考慮通貨膨脹對其名義價值的負面影響後,通過維持股權實際價值所產生的全部經濟價值。

  • Even after this approach, our adjusted return (inaudible) was far greater than those of our competitors and surpassed our pre-pandemic track record showing an impressive competitive with edge and consistent long-term strategy. Please turn to Slide 15. Our financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2022 and over the course of the entire year was exceptional. As shown on the chart to the left, net income reached CLP 347 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, 21% higher than the same period last year. And for the full year, we grew 78% over 2021.

    即使採用這種方法,我們調整後的回報(聽不清)也遠遠高於我們的競爭對手,並超過了我們在大流行前的記錄,顯示出令人印象深刻的競爭優勢和一致的長期戰略。請轉到幻燈片 15。我們在 2022 年第四季度和全年的財務表現非常出色。如左圖所示,2022 年第四季度的淨收入達到 3470 億菲律賓比索,比去年同期增長 21%。就全年而言,我們比 2021 年增長了 78%。

  • This bottom line surpassed all of our main competitors in both absolute figures as well as growth, as shown on the chart on the right. The strong bottom line was composed of both temporary and core factors driven by our sound and consistent strategy. Our balance sheet positioning and superior competitive advantages permitted us to greatly benefit from the non-recurring rise and inflation as a result of our U.S. GAAP position.

    如右圖所示,這一底線在絕對數字和增長方面都超過了我們所有的主要競爭對手。強大的底線由我們穩健一致的戰略驅動的臨時因素和核心因素組成。我們的資產負債表定位和卓越的競爭優勢使我們能夠從非經常性增長和通貨膨脹中受益匪淺,因為我們的美國公認會計原則的地位。

  • Higher nominal interest rates also played a major role in this result due to the higher contribution of demand deposits. Other core factors that supported the bottom line came from higher loan originations and the dynamic (inaudible) business; all being boosted even more by the persistent strong level of asset quality. Please turn to Slide 16 on operating revenues, where we will go into more details.

    由於活期存款貢獻較大,較高的名義利率也在這一結果中發揮了重要作用。支持底線的其他核心因素來自更高的貸款發放和動態(聽不清)業務;持續強勁的資產質量水平進一步推動了這一切。請轉到有關營業收入的幻燈片 16,我們將在其中詳細介紹。

  • Our operating revenues experienced a rise of 15% when comparing the fourth quarter to the same period last year and grew 42% year-on-year. The latter grew 74% in non-customer income and 28% in customer income. In terms of non-customer income, we generated greater revenues from our U.S. structural GAAP position due to the high level of inflation we experienced this year and to a lesser extent, higher income from our management of our trading and debt securities portfolio, given the positive changes in both interest rates and inflation.

    與去年同期相比,第四季度我們的營業收入增長了 15%,同比增長了 42%。後者的非客戶收入增長了 74%,客戶收入增長了 28%。在非客戶收入方面,由於我們今年經歷了高水平的通貨膨脹,我們從我們的美國結構性 GAAP 頭寸中獲得了更多收入,並且在較小程度上,我們管理我們的交易和債務證券組合的收入增加了,因為利率和通貨膨脹的積極變化。

  • The rise in customer income was the result of stronger demand deposit contribution given a scenario of high local and foreign interest rates and to a lower degree by a moderate increase in average balances. Likewise, lower liquidity among individuals also resulted in the reactivation of higher-margin lending products such as consumer loans.

    客戶收入的增加是由於在本地和外國利率較高的情況下活期存款貢獻增加以及平均餘額適度增加的程度較低。同樣,個人之間較低的流動性也導致消費貸款等利潤率較高的貸款產品重新啟動。

  • Putting aside the temporary revenues that we generated in 2022, the charts to the right show how our overall operating income compared to our competitors. As you can see on the right of this slide, we have outperformed our peers in net interest margin, fees and total operating margin. We believe that part of this better performance responds to our consistent approach to risk, which is supported by prudent corporate governance standards.

    撇開我們在 2022 年產生的臨時收入不談,右圖顯示了我們與競爭對手相比的整體營業收入。正如您在這張幻燈片右側看到的那樣,我們在淨息差、費用和總營業利潤率方面優於我們的同行。我們認為,這種更好的業績部分歸因於我們一貫的風險管理方法,而審慎的公司治理標準為這種方法提供了支持。

  • Please turn to Slide 17. Total loans grew by 7.2% as compared to the previous year and 1.7% versus the third quarter of 2022. A large portion of this expansion is attributable to market factors as inflation had a significant uptick this year, particularly at since 100% of mortgage and 37% of commercial loans are denominated in U.S. The difference in nominal versus real growth becomes clear in the chart to the right.

    請轉到幻燈片 17。貸款總額與上一年相比增長 7.2%,與 2022 年第三季度相比增長 1.7%。這一擴張在很大程度上歸因於市場因素,因為今年通脹顯著上升,尤其是在因為 100% 的抵押貸款和 37% 的商業貸款以美國計價。名義增長與實際增長的差異在右圖中變得清晰可見。

  • Nevertheless, consumer loans continued to exhibit higher dynamism by growing 17.5% year-on-year and an impressive 6% quarter-over-quarter. This positive outcome is primarily due to strong loan origination figures, which were driven by effective marketing strategies and solid value propositions. We have also seen an important improvement in originations by account manager as a consequence of our successful retail banking sales excellence program. This has been implementing best practices across the organization, boosting productivity levels through 4 key pillars.

    儘管如此,消費貸款繼續表現出更高的活力,同比增長 17.5%,環比增長 6%,令人印象深刻。這一積極成果主要歸功於強勁的貸款發放數據,這是由有效的營銷策略和可靠的價值主張推動的。由於我們成功的零售銀行銷售卓越計劃,我們還看到客戶經理在發起方面的重大改進。這一直在整個組織實施最佳實踐,通過 4 個關鍵支柱提高生產力水平。

  • First, improving the effectiveness of risk models to increase pre-approved loans and adjusting risk attribution at the branch level to boost efficiency. Second, we're leveraging digital tools to enhance analytics; third, expanding our business intelligence and building new propensity model, which is a set of approaches to building predictive models to forecast behaviour of a target audience by analysing their past behaviours. And finally, developing (inaudible) discipline through the implementation of management and training procedures branch per branch.

    一是提高風險模型有效性,增加預批貸款,在分行層面調整風險歸因,提高效率。其次,我們正在利用數字工具來增強分析;第三,擴展我們的商業智能並建立新的傾向模型,這是一套建立預測模型的方法,通過分析目標受眾過去的行為來預測他們的行為。最後,通過在每個分支機構實施管理和培訓程序分支機構來製定(聽不清)紀律。

  • Through this program, we have been able to increase not only our originations of consumer loans that grew 45% year-on-year, but also our market share in this product that grew 76 basis points to reach 17.4%. A similar program is being implemented in the SME segment and we are already seeing strong improvements in originations with a rise of 25% this quarter when compared to the same quarter in 2021.

    通過該計劃,我們不僅能夠增加同比增長 45% 的消費貸款發放,而且我們在該產品中的市場份額也增長了 76 個基點,達到 17.4%。中小企業部門正在實施類似的計劃,與 2021 年同季度相比,本季度我們已經看到發起活動有了很大改善,增長了 25%。

  • For 2023, we expect that loans in the industry should grow in line with expectations for inflation and that loan growth should be driven by consumer and mortgage loans. We expect that commercial loans will continue growing below inflation due to the low business confidence, political uncertainties and the recession we are currently experiencing. As for our loan portfolio, this should follow a similar trend of moderate growth.

    到 2023 年,我們預計該行業的貸款增長應與通脹預期一致,並且貸款增長應由消費貸款和抵押貸款推動。由於商業信心低下、政治不確定性和我們目前正在經歷的經濟衰退,我們預計商業貸款的增長將繼續低於通脹。至於我們的貸款組合,這應該遵循類似的溫和增長趨勢。

  • Please turn to Slide 18. We have adjusted our balance sheet structure accordingly for the changes we are expecting with regards to falling interest rates and inflation. Consequently, this led to a change in our funding strategy by proactively placing U.S. funds in the local market and increasing the source of funding 8% year-on-year and 5% in the quarter. This increase in the duration of our liabilities to reduce the price risk in the banking book by decreasing our exposure to inflation as shown on the chart on the bottom right, and refinance scheduled amortization of outstanding bonds.

    請轉到幻燈片 18。我們已根據我們預期的利率下降和通貨膨脹方面的變化相應地調整了資產負債表結構。因此,這導致我們的融資策略發生變化,主動將美國資金投放本地市場,並將資金來源同比增加 8%,本季度增加 5%。如右下圖所示,我們的負債期限增加是為了通過降低我們的通脹風險敞口來降低銀行賬簿中的價格風險,並為未償還債券的定期攤銷進行再融資。

  • The timing of (inaudible) was especially relevant given the expectations that the local bond market may become very active in debt places in light of the financing needs from the scheduled amortization of the FCIC financing beginning 2024 and the expected behaviour of demand deposits, among others. With regards to demand deposits, we continued to see normalization this quarter in terms of the source of funding decreasing by 6.4% during this quarter and 27% year-on-year from the unsustainably high levels of 2021 due to the pension fund withdrawals and relief programs.

    考慮到 2024 年開始的 FCIC 融資計劃攤銷的融資需求以及活期存款的預期行為等,當地債券市場可能會在債務領域變得非常活躍,因此(聽不清)的時機尤其重要.在活期存款方面,我們繼續看到本季度資金來源正常化,本季度資金來源下降 6.4%,與 2021 年不可持續的高水平相比同比下降 27%,原因是養老基金的提取和救濟程式。

  • As can be seen on the chart on the upper right, the relationship of demand deposits to time deposits has been moving quickly to a more normal level, given the extraordinarily high levels of short-term interest rates implemented to control inflation and normalized liquidity level in the economy.

    從右上圖可以看出,活期存款與定期存款的關係已迅速移至更正常的水平,因為為控制通貨膨脹而實施的短期利率水平非常高,流動性水平正常化經濟。

  • Nevertheless, we expect that our current level of demand deposits equal to 36.5% of total loans is relatively in line with our long-term levels from this source of funding. We expect that DDAs will remain relatively flat throughout 2023 when compared to 2022. We are also confident that our premium customer base should continue to support our strong funding mix.

    儘管如此,我們預計我們目前的活期存款水平相當於總貸款的 36.5%,與我們從這一資金來源獲得的長期水平相對一致。與 2022 年相比,我們預計 DDA 在整個 2023 年將保持相對平穩。我們也相信,我們的優質客戶群將繼續支持我們強大的資金組合。

  • Additionally, during 2023, we'll keep on assessing funding alternatives depending on the market dynamics, evolution of time deposits and demand deposits and loan growth. Likewise, we can't rule out that we'll continue to reduce price risk exposures in the banking book. For instance, in terms of the inflation gap, all of which will determine the steps we will take to finance our balance sheet.

    此外,在 2023 年期間,我們將根據市場動態、定期存款和活期存款的演變以及貸款增長,繼續評估融資方案。同樣,我們不能排除我們將繼續減少銀行賬戶中的價格風險敞口。例如,就通脹缺口而言,所有這些都將決定我們為資產負債表融資所採取的步驟。

  • Please turn to Slide 19 to discuss our superior capital levels versus our peers. As shown on the slide, our profitability track record has consistently outperformed our peers, including return on average equity despite our larger capital base. We finished the year with a Basel ratio of 18%, significantly higher than our peers, as shown on the chart on the top left and the positive direction of our CET1 ratio over the past few years has meaningfully surpassed both of our main competitors, as shown on the chart on the bottom left.

    請轉到幻燈片 19 討論我們優於同行的資本水平。如幻燈片所示,儘管我們的資本基礎更大,但我們的盈利記錄一直優於同行,包括平均股本回報率。我們以 18% 的巴塞爾比率結束了這一年,顯著高於我們的同行,如左上圖所示,並且我們的 CET1 比率在過去幾年中的積極方向明顯超過了我們的兩個主要競爭對手,因為顯示在左下方的圖表中。

  • This position of high returns, high net income and high CET1 is truly unique, as shown on the chart to the right. We have achieved this through our customer-centric business strategy and the appropriate balance between risk and return. This has allowed us to grow our portfolio and bottom line sustainably. Additionally, we have been able to continue providing an attractive dividend without affecting this leadership position, all the while maintaining the largest gap of our capital over the regulatory limit to easily comply with Basel III regulations.

    這種高回報、高淨收入和高 CET1 的地位確實是獨一無二的,如右圖所示。我們通過以客戶為中心的業務戰略和風險與回報之間的適當平衡實現了這一目標。這使我們能夠可持續地增加我們的投資組合和利潤。此外,我們能夠在不影響這一領導地位的情況下繼續提供有吸引力的股息,同時保持我們的資本超過監管限額的最大缺口,以輕鬆遵守巴塞爾協議 III 的規定。

  • Please turn to Slide 20. Undoubtedly, core expected credit losses are in the process of normalization. This quarter, expected credit losses reached CLP 123 billion, down from CLP 138 billion posted 1 year ago with a lower amount of additional provision established. For the full year, we recorded CLP 435 billion of expected credit losses, up 22% from 1 year ago. This rise is attributable to the normalization of asset quality after a period of high liquidity that maintained risk indicators transitorily low.

    請翻到幻燈片20。毫無疑問,核心預期信用損失正處於正常化過程中。本季度,預期信貸損失達到 1230 億智利比索,低於 1 年前公佈的 1380 億智利比索,額外撥備金額較低。全年,我們記錄了 4350 億中電的預期信貸損失,比一年前增長 22%。這一上升歸因於資產質量在經歷了一段使風險指標暫時處於低位的高流動性之後恢復正常。

  • As shown on the chart on the bottom left, NPLs rose from a very low level of 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a still lower than pre-pandemic level of 1.08% this quarter, a rise that was significantly lower than those posted by our main peers. Excluding the decrease of CLP 65 billion of additional provisions, the Retail Banking segment contributed the most expected credit losses with an annual increase of CLP 31 billion, while the Wholesale Banking segment rose CLP 13 billion due to the high inflation and weaker economy that is affecting individuals and businesses alike.

    如左下圖所示,不良貸款率從 2021 年第四季度的 0.5% 的極低水平上升至本季度仍低於大流行前水平的 1.08%,這一增幅明顯低於公佈的水平由我們的主要同行。不包括減少的 650 億智利比索額外準備金,零售銀行業務貢獻了最大的預期信貸損失,每年增加 310 億智利比索,而由於高通脹和影響經濟疲軟的影響,批發銀行業務部門增加了 130 億智利比索個人和企業都一樣。

  • Nevertheless, the quality of our portfolio and the risk management culture is evident when we compare to our peers, as you can see on the chart on this slide. Not only do we have the soundest portfolio, we also have the highest coverage ratio of 3.7x and the most additional provisions amounting to CLP 700 billion as shown on the chart to the right.

    儘管如此,當我們與同行進行比較時,我們的投資組合和風險管理文化的質量是顯而易見的,正如您在這張幻燈片的圖表中看到的那樣。如右圖所示,我們不僅擁有最穩健的投資組合,還擁有最高的 3.7 倍覆蓋率和最多的額外準備金,達 7000 億中電。

  • This clearly positions us better than our peers if the economy worsens beyond our baseline scenario. Lastly, it's important to stress the relevance that controlling risk has on their bottom line. This is truly a competitive advantage where we have demonstrated a superior track record to our peers, as shown on the chart on the bottom right. Since 2021, we have continued to widen the gap with our peers despite our significantly larger coverage ratio, demonstrating our excellence in managing our business.

    如果經濟惡化超出我們的基線情景,這顯然使我們處於比同行更好的位置。最後,重要的是要強調控制風險與其底線的相關性。這確實是一種競爭優勢,我們已經向同行展示了卓越的業績記錄,如右下角的圖表所示。 2021年以來,我們在覆蓋率大幅提升的情況下,繼續拉大與同行的差距,顯示我們在管理業務方面的卓越表現。

  • Please turn to Slide 21. Expenses have grown this quarter 19% nominal over the same period last year and 14% nominal in 2022 over 2021. This rise is primarily due to the high inflation that reached 12.8%, which has an impact on most of expense line items, including salary, advisory services and IT expenses that are indexed to CPI. We also recorded higher variable compensation due to the strong results during 2022. Nevertheless, the annual rise in real terms reduced significantly to only 2.8% as a consequence of our cost control efforts bearing fruit.

    請轉到幻燈片 21。本季度的費用名義上比去年同期增長 19%,2022 年比 2021 年名義上增長 14%。這一增長主要是由於高達 12.8% 的高通脹,這對大部分企業產生了影響費用項目,包括與 CPI 掛鉤的工資、諮詢服務和 IT 費用。由於 2022 年的強勁業績,我們還記錄了更高的可變薪酬。然而,由於我們的成本控制努力取得成果,實際年增長率大幅下降至僅 2.8%。

  • In terms of efficiency ratio, we reached a ratio of 33.1% this quarter and 31.9% for the full year, both significantly below the levels recorded in 2021. When compared to our peers, we continue to lead and widen the gap in efficiency as shown on the chart to the right.

    在效率方面,我們本季度達到 33.1%,全年達到 31.9%,均顯著低於 2021 年的水平。與同行相比,我們繼續領先並擴大效率差距,如圖所示在右邊的圖表上。

  • We are confident that through our firm focus of strengthening cost controls, boosting productivity and using technology to improve how we manage our business should continue to allow us to post strong normalized efficiency levels that are better than what we recorded in the past. Nevertheless, it's fair to mention that our current level of efficiency has clearly been driven by market factors such as inflation and interest rates, but transitorily increased operating revenues. However, we are confident that we will continue to reach sustainable levels below 45% in the medium term.

    我們有信心,通過我們堅定地專注於加強成本控制、提高生產力和使用技術來改善我們管理業務的方式,應該可以繼續讓我們實現比過去更好的標準化效率水平。儘管如此,公平地說,我們目前的效率水平顯然是由通貨膨脹和利率等市場因素驅動的,但暫時增加了營業收入。但是,我們有信心在中期內繼續達到低於 45% 的可持續水平。

  • Please turn to Slide 22. The last few years have been turbulent. Despite this, we have managed the bank well throughout this cycle posting historic results in 2022, that are well above all of our competition. We outperformed in total profitability measured by ROE and ROA and at the same time in capitalization. We posted the highest net interest margin, the highest fee margin and the highest operating margin. We recorded the best asset quality indicators and set the highest level of coverage to face possible uncertainties that could have occurred or that may lay ahead.

    請翻到幻燈片 22。過去幾年動盪不安。儘管如此,我們在整個週期中都很好地管理了銀行,並在 2022 年取得了歷史性的成績,遠遠超過了我們所有的競爭對手。我們在以 ROE 和 ROA 衡量的總盈利能力以及資本化方面表現出色。我們公佈了最高的淨息差、最高的手續費利潤率和最高的營業利潤率。我們記錄了最好的資產質量指標,並設置了最高的覆蓋水平,以應對可能已經發生或可能存在的不確定性。

  • Not only that, we also posted the best efficiency ratio in the industry, taking away this recognition that has historically been held by our main competitor. Overall, we believe that through a superior customer-centric strategy, together with our uncompromising approach to manage risks are the main pillars of our solid track record. This is especially relevant as we are currently in a recession. We expect that the recovery should begin in the second half of 2023, and we are well positioned to take greater advantage of this environment than our peers. Our short-term guidance is NIM decreasing from the unsustainably high rates to a level of around 4.3%.

    不僅如此,我們還取得了業界最佳的效率比,奪走了這一歷來由我們的主要競爭對手佔據的認可度。總的來說,我們相信,通過卓越的以客戶為中心的戰略,以及我們毫不妥協的風險管理方法,是我們良好業績記錄的主要支柱。這一點尤其重要,因為我們目前正處於經濟衰退之中。我們預計復甦應在 2023 年下半年開始,我們有能力比同行更好地利用這種環境。我們的短期指導是 NIM 從不可持續的高利率下降到 4.3% 左右的水平。

  • Cost of risk should normalize this year to around 1.2% and efficiency should reach a level of around 40%. As per ROE, we should converge to range around 18%, while also maintaining a solid capital base. Thank you for listening. If you have any questions, we would be happy to answer them.

    風險成本今年應正常化至 1.2% 左右,效率應達到 40% 左右的水平。根據 ROE,我們應該收斂到 18% 左右的範圍,同時保持穩固的資本基礎。謝謝你的聆聽。如果您有任何問題,我們很樂意回答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much for the presentation. We will now be moving to the Q&A part of the call. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mr. Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

    非常感謝您的介紹。我們現在將進入電話會議的問答部分。 (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Tito Labarta 先生。

  • Daer Labarta - VP

    Daer Labarta - VP

  • A couple of questions. I guess just on your expense outlook, efficiency deteriorating a bit as margins kind of normalize but how do you think about expense growth from here? I know inflation has been high as inflation comes down, but you're still growing a bit above inflation. Is that what we should expect slightly above inflation? Or is there to room where you can improve efficiency on the cost side? And then a second question on your capital ratio, very strong at 13.7%; just help us, what do you think is the right level of capital where you feel comfortable operating? And what could that mean for your dividend pay-out?

    幾個問題。我想就您的費用前景而言,隨著利潤率的正常化,效率會有所下降,但是您如何看待這裡的費用增長?我知道隨著通貨膨脹率的下降,通貨膨脹率一直很高,但你的增長速度仍然略高於通貨膨脹率。這是我們應該預期的略高於通貨膨脹率的情況嗎?或者在成本方面是否還有提高效率的餘地?然後是關於您的資本比率的第二個問題,非常高,達到 13.7%;請幫助我們,您認為您認為適合運營的資本水平是多少?這對您的股息支付意味著什麼?

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • So yes, so in terms of efficiency, what we're seeing is that the strong growth of 2022 inflation has an important effect in terms of the variation of costs in 2023. So, it will probably start seeing a level of around a couple of points above inflation in terms of cost because most of our costs are indexed inflation, right? So, we have some things that we've been doing throughout the year and prior years, like digital transformation. We've been improving everything related to our digital products, the services and tools that we provide online, the onboarding that we're giving customers. We had a reduction in a branch level. We optimized the branches across Chile. Today, we have 266 branches. Half of those branches are located in Santiago and the other half are located in regions outside of Santiago. In regions outside of Santiago, there's only 1 or 2 branches in those cities and towns, so there's not much room for improvement there or improvement in the footprint.

    所以是的,就效率而言,我們看到的是 2022 年通脹的強勁增長對 2023 年的成本變化產生了重要影響。因此,它可能會開始出現大約幾個水平就成本而言高於通貨膨脹點,因為我們的大部分成本都是指數化通貨膨脹,對嗎?因此,我們在過去一年和前幾年一直在做一些事情,比如數字化轉型。我們一直在改進與我們的數字產品、我們在線提供的服務和工具以及我們為客戶提供的入職培訓相關的一切。我們降低了分支級別。我們優化了智利的分支機構。今天,我們有 266 家分行。這些分支機構中有一半位於聖地亞哥,另一半位於聖地亞哥以外的地區。在聖地亞哥以外的地區,那些城鎮只有 1 或 2 個分支機構,因此那裡沒有太大的改進空間或改善足跡。

  • In Santiago all depend on the evolution in terms of growth and how many customers use the branches. But today, the level that we have in the branch network; we feel is optimal as of today. And we've also been implementing improvements in efficiency through our efficiency program, where we've seen different improvements across the company in terms of how we purchased goods within the bank, implementing new tools and to option of purchases to get better deals and also on how we're doing training within the branches in order to improve productivity and increase the originations per account manager.

    在聖地亞哥,一切都取決於增長方面的演變以及有多少客戶使用分支機構。但是今天,我們在分支網絡中擁有的水平;我們覺得今天是最佳的。我們也一直在通過我們的效率計劃來提高效率,我們看到整個公司在如何在銀行內購買商品、實施新工具以及選擇購買以獲得更好的交易方面都有不同的改進,而且關於我們如何在分支機構內進行培訓以提高生產力並增加每個客戶經理的發起。

  • So basically, in summary, for 2023, One of the main drivers for us is the effect of inflation through 2022, which is affecting the comparison base. So, in the medium term, we should think that Banco de Chile will grow in line or slightly below inflation but for 2023, the main driver is 2022 inflation. And for (inaudible), Daniel Galarce will respond to your question.

    所以基本上,總而言之,對於 2023 年,我們的主要驅動因素之一是通貨膨脹的影響到 2022 年,這正在影響比較基數。因此,從中期來看,我們應該認為智利銀行的增長將與通脹保持一致或略低於通脹,但對於 2023 年,主要驅動因素是 2022 年的通脹。對於(聽不清),Daniel Galarce 將回答你的問題。

  • Daniel Ignacio Galarce Toro - Head of Financial Control

    Daniel Ignacio Galarce Toro - Head of Financial Control

  • Hi, everybody. Well, we (inaudible) in fact, we're still fairly confident with and pretty comfortable with the level we have today, particularly in terms of CET1. And in terms of the dividend pay-out, as you probably know, the board has decided to propose 100% pay-out ratio for 2023 over the net distributable income, which, in fact, is an effective pay-out ratio of 68% approximately.

    大家好。好吧,我們(聽不清)事實上,我們對今天的水平仍然相當有信心並且非常滿意,特別是在 CET1 方面。在股息支付方面,您可能知道,董事會已決定提議 2023 年的派息率超過可分配淨收入的 100%,這實際上是 68% 的有效派息率大約。

  • It's important to consider that as every year, we retain the effect of inflation on the shareholder (inaudible), of course. So, we normally distribute over the rest of the earnings in this case, is distributable earnings. So basically, we will continue to reinforce our capital base and, in the future, we'll probably come back to the same (inaudible) that we normally have every year, which is approximately 60% of the net distributable income. Just a correction, the effective pay-out ratio is 62% of our net distributable over the total net income. The last year, 2022 was 68%.

    當然,重要的是要考慮到每年,我們都會保留通貨膨脹對股東的影響(聽不清)。所以,我們通常在這種情況下分配剩餘的收益,是可分配收益。所以基本上,我們將繼續加強我們的資本基礎,並且在未來,我們可能會回到我們通常每年擁有的相同(聽不清),這大約是可分配淨收入的 60%。只是一個更正,有效支付比率是我們可分配淨額占淨收入總額的 62%。去年,2022 年是 68%。

  • Daer Labarta - VP

    Daer Labarta - VP

  • Great. And just in terms of like what the optimal level of capital is where we think you should be operating?

    偉大的。就我們認為您應該運營的最佳資本水平而言?

  • Daniel Ignacio Galarce Toro - Head of Financial Control

    Daniel Ignacio Galarce Toro - Head of Financial Control

  • Yes. It will depend on the balance sheet growth, of course but we feel pretty comfortable with the level we have today. Probably, we will use some capital over the next 3 years but basically, will depend on how the (inaudible) will expand in the midterm. Today, we have room to grow in terms of the balance sheet, of course, and probably levels of CET1 of 12.5% is something that is reasonable for us.

    是的。當然,這將取決於資產負債表的增長,但我們對今天的水平感到非常滿意。我們可能會在未來 3 年內使用一些資金,但基本上,這將取決於(聽不清)在中期將如何擴張。今天,我們在資產負債表方面有增長的空間,當然,12.5% 的 CET1 水平對我們來說可能是合理的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mr. Andres Soto from Santander.

    我們的下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的安德烈斯·索托先生。

  • Andres Soto - Head of Andean Research

    Andres Soto - Head of Andean Research

  • Basically, I would like to understand your updated sensitivity to interest rates and margins.

    基本上,我想了解您對利率和利潤率的最新敏感度。

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • Okay So in terms of net interest margins, what we're seeing today is the level of that goes somewhere around 4.3% for 2023. And the main driver there is really for us the evolution of inflation. So, depending on the evolution of inflation will be the main driver in the short term for where that level finishes for the end of the year. What we're seeing some other drivers, but less of an impact is, however, growing the retail base loans. So, the evolution of the growth in loans that we're seeing, we see that retail is a little bit healthier than the wholesale, but still, it's not significant as inflation. So, for every 100-basis point change of inflation, it's about the CLP 60 billion change in net interest income or more or less in NIM around 13 basis points with the gap that we have on the balance sheet today.

    好吧,就淨息差而言,我們今天看到的是 2023 年的水平約為 4.3%。對我們來說,主要驅動力實際上是通貨膨脹的演變。因此,取決於通脹的演變將成為短期內該水平在年底結束時的主要驅動因素。然而,我們看到了一些其他驅動因素,但影響較小的是零售基礎貸款的增長。因此,我們看到的貸款增長的演變,我們看到零售比批發稍微健康一點,但仍然不如通貨膨脹那麼重要。因此,對於每 100 個基點的通貨膨脹變化,淨利息收入或多或少的淨利息收入變化大約為 600 億中電,與我們今天資產負債表上的差距約為 13 個基點。

  • And if we look at the sensitivity to the overnight rate, once everything reprices after 3 years, 100 basis point change in the overnight rate is about a 30-basis point change in net interest margins. So that would be the main driver for 2023. The net interest margin is inflation. And there's some positive effects on growth in terms of loans but what we're seeing is what is relatively flat in total with a slightly higher growth in terms of retail loans above inflation.

    如果我們看一下對隔夜利率的敏感性,一旦一切在 3 年後重新定價,隔夜利率變化 100 個基點大約是淨息差變化 30 個基點。因此,這將是 2023 年的主要驅動力。淨息差是通貨膨脹。貸款方面的增長有一些積極影響,但我們看到的是整體相對持平,零售貸款增長略高於通脹。

  • Andres Soto - Head of Andean Research

    Andres Soto - Head of Andean Research

  • And regarding your additional provisions, is connecting this with the (inaudible) model for provisioning in consumer loans, do you have any updated estimates of how much of your excess provisions are going to be used for this bigger model? And if I assume it's not a full amount, will you consider to release some of those provisions in case the cost of risk this year at some point, exceeds the 1.2% that you are forecasting now?

    關於您的額外準備金,將其與消費貸款準備金的(聽不清)模型聯繫起來,您是否有關於您的超額準備金中有多少將用於這個更大模型的最新估計?如果我假設這不是全部金額,您是否會考慮釋放其中一些準備金,以防今年某個時候的風險成本超過您現在預測的 1.2%?

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • Well, today, we have the highest level of additional provisions, which is CLP 700 billion. It gives us a very strong coverage ratio of 3.7x. And if you see in the presentation, in the last quarters, the provisions have been flowing through the income statement is more based on models and additional provisions. So, we only set CLP 15 billion of additional provisions in the last quarter.

    那麼今天我們有最高額度的額外撥備,就是7000億中電。它為我們提供了 3.7 倍的非常高的覆蓋率。如果你在演示文稿中看到,在最後幾個季度,流經損益表的準備金更多地基於模型和額外準備金。因此,我們在上個季度只設定了 150 億中電的額外準備金。

  • Now with respect to why we place these provisions or why we have these additional provisions, therefore, the evolution of the economy and how that can affect our portfolio, but not for model changes. What we're expecting is somewhere around 1.2% for cost of risk for the next year, and that's in line with our base scenario. Now, we haven't mentioned the effect of the new provisioning model but for us, it's not so material, but there's not a clear guideline on how this will be implemented or also the rule of the provisioning model will end up in at the end because it just finished in a consultation period, and we still need to find the final draft.

    現在關於我們為什麼放置這些條款或為什麼我們有這些額外的條款,因此,經濟的發展以及它如何影響我們的投資組合,但不是為了模型變化。我們預計明年的風險成本約為 1.2%,這與我們的基本情景一致。現在,我們還沒有提到新供應模型的影響,但對我們來說,它不是那麼重要,但沒有明確的指導方針來說明如何實施,或者供應模型的規則將在最後結束因為它剛剛在諮詢期完成,我們還需要找到最終草案。

  • Rodrigo Aravena - Chief Economist & Senior VP of Institutional Relations

    Rodrigo Aravena - Chief Economist & Senior VP of Institutional Relations

  • So it's very important to keep in mind that there are some sources of uncertainty that still remains for the country for Chile. It's not clear, for example, what will be the long-term impact from the different measures that were adopted during the last year, for example, the long-term impact from the withdraw from pension funds, the lower saving rates, et cetera.

    因此,重要的是要記住,智利仍然存在一些不確定性來源。例如,目前尚不清楚去年採取的不同措施的長期影響是什麼,例如,退出養老基金、降低儲蓄率等的長期影響。

  • So, there are some doubts related to the long-term GDP growth for Chile is not clear how will be, for example, the long-term level of the monetary policy right as well. So, at the end of the day, it's very important, especially this year, to be aware of different source of uncertainty, especially considering some discussions that we're going to have 2023, including, for example, different discussions from the taxes, the pension reform, the constitutional close to that it will be held this year as well.

    因此,存在一些與智利長期 GDP 增長相關的疑問尚不清楚,例如,貨幣政策的長期水平是否正確。因此,歸根結底,了解不同的不確定性來源非常重要,尤其是今年,尤其是考慮到我們將在 2023 年進行的一些討論,例如,與稅收的不同討論,養老金改革、憲法接近於今年也將舉行。

  • So, the evolution of these sources of rates are very important in terms of the provisions in the future. And also, it's extremely important to pay attention to the evolution of the exchange rate in Chile because it has a critical impact in terms of inflation. You have to have an (inaudible) 10% change in the same rate. It changed the overall inflation in 1 year of around 150 basis points. So that's why there are some sources of uncertainty that is very important to pay special attention to this year.

    因此,就未來的規定而言,這些利率來源的演變非常重要。而且,關注智利匯率的演變非常重要,因為它對通貨膨脹有關鍵影響。相同的比率必須有(聽不清)10% 的變化。它改變了 1 年內約 150 個基點的整體通貨膨脹率。所以這就是為什麼今年有一些非常重要的不確定性來源需要特別注意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jason Mollin from Scotiabank.

    我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Jason Mollin。

  • Jason Barrett Mollin - MD of LatAm Financial Services

    Jason Barrett Mollin - MD of LatAm Financial Services

  • Congratulations on the strong results. My question is related to the guidance, and I wanted to understand what's the upside risk that you see, what are the main sources for upside risk to your guidance? And what would be the main ones for the downside risks as well?

    祝賀你取得了優異的成績。我的問題與指南有關,我想了解您看到的上行風險是什麼,您的指南上行風險的主要來源是什麼?下行風險的主要風險是什麼?

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • So I think the main upside risks that we're seeing today is in recent economic figures is better-than-expected results of the economy and maybe how that will transfer into 2023 with a stronger GDP growth, that would be positive. Also the evolution of unemployment rate is also a positive factor that can continue benefiting different line items in the balance sheet, for example, stronger growth in the portfolio and higher-margin products.

    所以我認為我們今天看到的主要上行風險是最近的經濟數據好於預期的經濟結果,也許這將如何轉移到 2023 年,GDP 增長會更強勁,這將是積極的。此外,失業率的演變也是一個積極因素,可以繼續使資產負債表中的不同項目受益,例如,投資組合的強勁增長和利潤率更高的產品。

  • We also have the benefits of lower cost of risk than could be expected if the economy is stronger, and we continue to see a very good payment behaviour from our customers. I think those are the main upside. But the main downside also falls in the same line, I would say. As long if the economy grows slower, there's more uncertainty, the business confidence levels are weaker, that can have an effect in the balance sheet in terms of growth of the portfolio and also in the evolution of risk but it's important also to mention that we have a huge amount of additional provisions.

    如果經濟走強,我們的風險成本也比預期的要低,而且我們繼續看到客戶的良好支付行為。我認為這些是主要的好處。但主要的缺點也屬於同一條線,我會說。只要經濟增長放緩,不確定性就會增加,商業信心水平就會下降,這就會對資產負債表產生影響,包括投資組合的增長以及風險的演變,但同樣重要的是要提到我們有大量的附加條款。

  • So, if something escapes, it's a little bit more higher NPLs in a baseline scenario or it gets very difficult in 2023, we still have a large amount of additional provisions which the Board takes into consideration on a monthly basis on the revision of those provisions and how they should be used.

    因此,如果有什麼事情逃脫了,在基準情景中不良貸款會更高一點,或者在 2023 年變得非常困難,我們仍然有大量額外準備金,董事會每月都會在修訂這些準備金時考慮這些準備金以及它們應該如何使用。

  • Rodrigo Aravena - Chief Economist & Senior VP of Institutional Relations

    Rodrigo Aravena - Chief Economist & Senior VP of Institutional Relations

  • Yes, so in a word, the key sources of potential changes in our bottom line are related with macro drivers. So, we're not especially concerned, for example, any figures or special factor related to the industry sector or especially for Bank of Chile. So, at the end of the day, the asset risk or downward risk related to the bottom line, mainly are related with economic growth, with the evolution of interest rate, CPI, as Pablo mentioned, the unemployment rate, especially considering the material impact in risk. So, the potential gap between our guidance today, the final results for the end of this year will be closely related with the evolution of macro factors rather than specific aspects of our banks of the financial industry.

    是的,總之,我們底線潛在變化的關鍵來源與宏觀驅動因素有關。因此,我們並不特別關注與行業相關的任何數據或特殊因素,尤其是智利銀行。所以,歸根結底,與底線相關的資產風險或下行風險,主要與經濟增長有關,隨著利率的演變,CPI,正如 Pablo 提到的,失業率,特別是考慮到物質影響處於危險之中。因此,我們今天的指導與今年年底的最終結果之間的潛在差距將與宏觀因素的演變密切相關,而不是我們銀行金融業的具體方面。

  • Jason Barrett Mollin - MD of LatAm Financial Services

    Jason Barrett Mollin - MD of LatAm Financial Services

  • Understood. So, the changes in interest rates wouldn't have a direct impact on your guidance, you will be more indirect through economic growth expectations and inflation. Would that be correct?

    明白了。因此,利率的變化不會對您的指導產生直接影響,您將通過經濟增長預期和通貨膨脹來間接影響。那是正確的嗎?

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • Our baseline scenario for interest rates is that they're relatively on average, similar 2022 and 2023. If the evolution of that changes or the evolution of inflation changes, that would have an effect on our net interest margins.

    我們的利率基準情景是它們相對平均,類似於 2022 年和 2023 年。如果這種變化或通貨膨脹的演變發生變化,那將對我們的淨息差產生影響。

  • Rodrigo Aravena - Chief Economist & Senior VP of Institutional Relations

    Rodrigo Aravena - Chief Economist & Senior VP of Institutional Relations

  • So, at the end of the day, the key figures to monitor this year is the inflation, the evolution of CPI because that is the variable where we have more uncertainty. In fact, we know it some downward risk today in the evolution of the CDI. Just to have an idea, for instance, our forecast 4.8 % inflation for this year is consistent with an exchange rate of around 850. So, if the churn rate (inaudible) for example in the current level, there would be a potential downward risk in terms of the inflation and consequently in the bottom line. So, at the end of the day, the most relevant figure for this year in terms of the evolution of the bottom line will be inflation.

    因此,歸根結底,今年要監測的關鍵數據是通貨膨脹,即 CPI 的演變,因為這是我們具有更多不確定性的變量。事實上,我們知道今天 CDI 的演變存在一些下行風險。舉個例子,我們預測今年 4.8% 的通貨膨脹率與 850 左右的匯率一致。因此,如果流失率(聽不清)處於當前水平,則存在潛在的下行風險在通貨膨脹方面,因此在底線方面。因此,歸根結底,就底線的演變而言,今年最相關的數字將是通貨膨脹。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mr. Yuri Fernandes from JP Morgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的尤里費爾南德斯先生。

  • Yuri R. Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri R. Fernandes - Analyst

  • Pablo, congrats on this incredible year. I have a question regarding fees. If you can provide some outlook. I guess this year was growing like 9-10%. And with low inflation (inaudible) at should be slightly weaker in 2023? Or if all those new initiatives, we should see more supportive fee growth for 2020? And also, regarding the NPLs, you have in the guidance 1.23%. That is some 20-bps increase versus 2022. But earlier you mentioned that maybe during the year, you could see some peak on like higher NPLs during the year. What do you mean by that? Like are you waiting for some kind of corporate cases? It's just like a more cautious macro-environment by half of the year? And as you charge off, or any cloud comes down. So basically, to understand the curve of NPL, right? Like should we start to see the peak in June 3rd Q and then gradually improving the 4th Q? What is the message here?

    巴勃羅,祝賀這不可思議的一年。我有一個關於費用的問題。如果你能提供一些展望。我猜今年增長了 9-10%。在低通脹(聽不清)的情況下,2023 年應該會略微走弱?或者,如果所有這些新舉措,我們應該在 2020 年看到更多支持性的費用增長?而且,關於不良貸款,您在指導中有 1.23%。與 2022 年相比,增長了約 20 個基點。但您之前提到,也許在這一年中,您可能會看到年內較高的不良貸款率達到峰值。你是什麼意思?就像您在等待某種公司案例嗎?就好像下半年宏觀環境更加謹慎?當你衝鋒時,或任何云落下。所以基本上,了解不良貸款的曲線,對嗎?比如我們是否應該在 6 月 3 日開始看到高峰,然後逐漸改善第 4 個 Q?這裡的信息是什麼?

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • So thanks for the question. So, in terms of our expectations for fees, the main driver of fees is customer growth. So, if we look at the last 10, last 5 years, customers, depending on how you calculate it, if you look at current account customers, we're growing on average over those periods, similar around 6- 7% in the last period that we look in a short time frame slightly above that because of all these new products that we've been implementing, where we've been growing very strongly in terms of new current account openings, all these digital onboarding platforms. So, one of the main drivers is customer growth, the sustainable drivers. Obviously, inflation has an effect on fees because most fees are indexed inflation. But in the long term, expecting a level of 3%, 3.5% for inflation, we should think that plus customer growth in current accounts, 7% somewhere around there, maybe hovering around there.

    所以謝謝你的問題。因此,就我們對費用的預期而言,費用的主要驅動力是客戶增長。所以,如果我們看看過去 10 年、過去 5 年的客戶,這取決於你如何計算,如果你看看經常賬戶客戶,我們在這些時期平均增長,與過去的 6-7% 相似由於我們一直在實施的所有這些新產品,我們在短時間內看到的時間略高於這一時期,我們在新的經常賬戶開戶方面一直在非常強勁地增長,所有這些數字入職平台。因此,主要驅動力之一是客戶增長,這是可持續的驅動力。顯然,通貨膨脹對費用有影響,因為大多數費用都是指數化的通貨膨脹。但從長遠來看,預計通貨膨脹率為 3%、3.5%,加上經常賬戶的客戶增長,我們應該認為 7% 左右,可能徘徊在附近。

  • That's the average more or less the average in the past. We should get to the high single-digit level of fee growth. There's cross-sell in there and for 2023, the main drivers that we're seeing is we have a very good ATM business place in very good locations that have a very high usage rate. That's a good driver, credit cards, mutual fund, the mutual fund business as well, current accounts administration fees. All those are the main drivers for 2023.

    這是過去或多或少的平均值。我們應該達到高個位數的費用增長水平。那裡有交叉銷售,到 2023 年,我們看到的主要驅動因素是我們在非常好的位置擁有非常好的 ATM 業務場所,使用率非常高。這是一個很好的驅動程序,信用卡、共同基金、共同基金業務以及經常賬戶管理費。所有這些都是 2023 年的主要驅動力。

  • In terms of the question of NPLs, I think I mentioned it should have around 9% or high single digits for 2023 and beyond, it's a reasonable level to expect. Those fees are generated from the retail segment and transactions. In terms of NPLs, the NPLs should be around these levels. But if we look at by segment, we see NPLs in the corporate book, relatively similar to what we've had in the past. But if we look in terms of the mortgage or more retail NPLs from the retail book, there's still a little bit of change that can occur there. We're still seeing very good payment behaviour, a very high-quality book, and we think that this should continue normalize and in line with the normalizing of liquidity. So, during 2023, the evolution of that really will be more macro. So how the evolution of unemployment and how that passes through into the retail book could occur and also the activity in terms of the wholesale.

    關於不良貸款問題,我想我提到過 2023 年及以後應該有 9% 左右或高個位數,這是一個合理的預期水平。這些費用來自零售部門和交易。在不良貸款方面,不良貸款應該在這些水平附近。但如果我們按部門來看,我們會在公司帳簿中看到不良貸款,這與我們過去的情況相對相似。但是,如果我們從零售賬簿中看抵押貸款或更多零售不良貸款,那裡仍然會發生一些變化。我們仍然看到非常好的支付行為,一本非常高質量的書,我們認為這應該繼續正常化並與流動性正常化保持一致。因此,在 2023 年期間,這種演變確實會更加宏觀。那麼失業率的演變以及它如何進入零售賬簿可能會發生,以及批發方面的活動。

  • Today we have a very high-quality book in all sectors. If we look at the real estate companies, they're strong. We haven't had material problems there. If we look at the retail sector, we're a bank that's focused on more upper-income individuals. So, we've had a good payment behaviour across the board, but it's still normalized in the loans that we have today overall are still lower than a normal level. So, changes are more macro.

    今天,我們在所有領域都有一本非常高質量的書。如果我們看一下房地產公司,它們很強大。我們在那裡沒有遇到物質問題。如果我們看看零售業,我們是一家專注於更多高收入人群的銀行。因此,我們在各方面都有良好的支付行為,但在我們今天擁有的貸款中仍然正常化,總體上仍低於正常水平。因此,變化更為宏觀。

  • Yuri R. Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri R. Fernandes - Analyst

  • And just to correct, myself. I guess you grew at like 40%, 50% in year it's not (technical difficulty).

    只是為了糾正,我自己。我猜你增長了大約 40%,50% 而不是(技術難度)。

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • Yes. So those fees is all customer growth, but one of the important factor there is inflation.

    是的。所以這些費用都是客戶增長,但其中一個重要因素是通貨膨脹。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question today comes from Mr. Carlos Gomez from HSBC.

    我們今天的最後一個問題來自匯豐銀行的Carlos Gomez 先生。

  • Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials

    Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials

  • I have a question also on fees, and you referred to (inaudible) regulation, you don't refer to competition. Do you think that with the new open banking environment and more competition from digital banks you might have pressure in the future? Or do you think it will not monumentally change the structure of the market? And then going forward, in terms of the group you still see yourself strictly constrained to Chile? Or would you consider international opportunities or perhaps going into the pension fund business, if that opens up?

    我還有一個關於費用的問題,你提到了(聽不清)監管,你沒有提到競爭。您認為隨著新的開放銀行環境和來自數字銀行的更多競爭,您是否會在未來面臨壓力?還是您認為它不會顯著改變市場結構?然後展望未來,就小組而言,您仍然認為自己嚴格限制在智利嗎?或者你會考慮國際機會或者可能進入養老基金業務,如果開放的話?

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • So I think in Chile, in general, the banking industry is a highly competitive environment. We have 18 banks in Chile that operate here in local banks and international banks. And there's a lot of regulations that have been set, which maintains these laws. So, for example, no current account, if you pay anything for your current account as a customer, includes all the fees regarding transactions, for example, all transfers, electronic transfers have no fees. You can transfer $0.50 equivalent or $100 equivalent, the note associated to that.

    所以我認為在智利,總的來說,銀行業是一個競爭激烈的環境。我們在智利有 18 家銀行,它們在本地銀行和國際銀行中開展業務。並且已經制定了許多法規來維護這些法律。因此,例如,沒有活期賬戶,如果您作為客戶為活期賬戶支付任何費用,則包括所有有關交易的費用,例如所有轉賬,電子轉賬都沒有費用。您可以轉賬等值 0.50 美元或等值 100 美元,以及與之相關的票據。

  • If we look at the ATMs, customers don't get charged to use other banking, other bank ATMs. So, there's less customer loyalty to your ATMs. The banks charge each other. So, there's a lot of fees are very low already. There are areas like what we've seen through competition have been decreasing. For example, the mutual fund administration fees, those have come down over the years, but significant changes in the fee structure; we don't see a relative change to what we've seen in the past, we see a lot of competition from all of these banks, I mentioned the local and international banks. In terms of the second question on the international realization of Banco Chile.

    如果我們看一下自動取款機,客戶無需支付使用其他銀行、其他銀行自動取款機的費用。因此,客戶對您的 ATM 的忠誠度較低。銀行互相收費。所以,有很多費用已經很低了。我們在競爭中看到的一些領域一直在減少。例如,共同基金的管理費用,這些年來有所下降,但費用結構發生了重大變化;我們沒有看到我們過去看到的相對變化,我們看到所有這些銀行的競爭激烈,我提到了本地和國際銀行。關於第二個問題,關於智利銀行的國際實現。

  • So, for Banco de Chile, we're a bank that's focused in Chile. Obviously, any new deals or business opportunities are all evaluated. But today, the focus has been to be in Chile and to continue to operate and to and grow with our customers and help Chile grow. There's no news today of any changes of that. But obviously, if there's any opportunities that appear it would be something that we would evaluate at that time.

    因此,對於 Banco de Chile,我們是一家專注於智利的銀行。顯然,任何新的交易或商機都經過評估。但今天,重點一直放在智利,繼續經營,與我們的客戶一起成長,幫助智利成長。今天沒有任何關於這方面變化的消息。但顯然,如果有任何機會出現,那將是我們當時會評估的事情。

  • Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials

    Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials

  • And the pension funds, if that opens up?

    如果開放的話,養老基金呢?

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • It's also something that would be evaluated. If any deals occur, pension funds, anything related to the financial institution that we can operate in. It would be something that would be evaluated at that point in time and if it's an interesting and appropriate business and the cost structure makes sense, it would be evaluated at the Board level to see how we would enter or not into that opportunity. Always taking care of having a good relationship between risk and return.

    這也是需要評估的東西。如果發生任何交易,養老基金,任何與我們可以經營的金融機構相關的事情。這將是在那個時間點進行評估的事情,如果它是一個有趣且合適的業務並且成本結構有意義,它會在董事會層面進行評估,以了解我們將如何進入或不進入該機會。始終注意在風險和回報之間建立良好的關係。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Looks like we don't have any further questions. I'll pass the line back to Banco de Chile team for concluding remarks.

    看來我們沒有其他問題了。我會把電話轉回給智利銀行團隊,讓他們發表總結性意見。

  • Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

    Pablo Mejia Ricci - Head of IR

  • Thank you for listening, and we look forward to speaking with you on our first quarter results for 2023. Thank you very much. This concludes today's call. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you very much. Goodbye.

    感謝您的收聽,我們期待與您就我們 2023 年第一季度的業績進行交流。非常感謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們現在將關閉所有線路。非常感謝。再見。