Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to BBVA's first quarter results presentation. Following yesterday's massive power shortage in Spain, the situation in Madrid is now almost fully restored. So we expect to be able to conduct today's earnings call normally.

早安，歡迎大家參加 BBVA 第一季業績報告。繼昨天西班牙出現大規模停電之後，馬德里的電力供應目前已基本恢復。因此，我們預計今天的收益電話會議將能夠正常進行。

As usual, I'm joined today by our CEO, Onur Genc; and Luisa Gomez Bravo, the Group CFO. After the review of the quarterly figures, we will open the line to receive your questions. Let me remind you that in addition to asking questions live to the conference call operator, you also have the option to submit your questions in writing via the Ask a Question section located just below the video you are watching.

像往常一樣，今天我也與我們的執行長 Onur Genc 和集團財務長 Luisa Gomez Bravo 一起出席了會議。季度資料審核完畢後，我們將開通專線接受大家的提問。讓我提醒您，除了向電話會議接線員現場提問之外，您還可以選擇透過您正在觀看的影片下方的「提問」部分以書面形式提交問題。

This option is available in case you experience any issues with the phone line. Any questions submitted through this channel will be read during the Q&A session and answer accordingly. We apologize for any inconvenience caused by this situation. And sincerely, thank you very much for your understanding and cooperation.

如果您遇到任何電話線路問題，可以使用此選項。透過此管道提交的任何問題都將在問答環節中閱讀並做出相應的回答。對於由此情況造成的不便，我們深表歉意。並真誠感謝您的理解與合作。

Thank you, Patricia. Good morning to everyone, and welcome, and thank you for joining BBVA's First Quarter 2025 earnings webcast. The ones who are connecting from Spain or the ones who have a friends and family in Spain, I hope everyone is safe and sound after yesterday's blackout.

謝謝你，帕特里夏。大家早安，歡迎大家收看，感謝您參加 BBVA 2025 年第一季收益網路廣播。對於那些從西班牙上網的人，或者那些在西班牙有朋友和家人的人，我希望昨天的停電之後每個人都平安無事。

And let's just jump into it. Starting with Slide number 3. In line with our strategic priorities of value creation and profitable growth, I would like to start the presentation today by highlighting the two financial metrics that best reflect these priorities, then you book value growth and profitability.

讓我們開始吧。從投影片 3 開始。依照我們創造價值和獲利成長的策略重點，今天我想先來介紹兩個最能反映這些重點的財務指標，即帳面價值成長和獲利能力。

On the left-hand side of the slide, you can see the strong evolution of tangible book value per share plus dividends, which increased by 14.1% year over year and 3.3% in the quarter in our view, very good figures despite the relatively high currency depreciations that we have experienced in the quarter.

在投影片的左側，您可以看到每股有形帳面價值加上股息的強勁變化，我們認為，該數字同比增長 14.1%，本季度增長 3.3%，儘管本季度我們經歷了相對較高的貨幣貶值，但仍然是非常好的數字。

On the right-hand side, our profitability continues to improve in the first quarter of 2025. We reached an outstanding return on tangible equity of 20.2% and the return on equity of 19.3%. These profitability metrics would most likely place us. Others have not announced yet, but would most likely place us once again as the most profitable European bank among the 15 largest banks of the continent.

右側顯示，2025 年第一季我們的獲利能力持續改善。我們實現了20.2%的有形資產回報率和19.3%的資產淨值回報率。這些獲利指標很可能會讓我們處於這樣的位置。其他銀行尚未宣布，但很有可能再次將我們列為歐洲大陸 15 家最大銀行中獲利能力最強的銀行。

Page number 4 on the left-hand side, you can see our net attributable profit in the quarter, reaching EUR2,698 million, another very strong quarter. This represents, as you can see also on the page, a 23% increase compared to the same quarter last year and also 10.9% higher this number versus the previous quarter. These results are due to the repeated excellent performance in our view of our core business, as can be seen in the growth of our core revenues that I will be explaining in a second.

在左側第 4 頁，您可以看到我們本季的淨利潤達到了 26.98 億歐元，這又是一個非常強勁的季度。正如您在頁面上看到的，這意味著與去年同期相比增長了 23%，與上一季相比增長了 10.9%。這些結果歸功於我們核心業務的持續優異表現，這可以從我們核心收入的成長中看出，我將在稍後解釋。

This profit figure translates into earnings per share of EUR0.45, a 24% increase year over year. And finally, and very importantly, regarding our CET1 fully loaded capital ratio on the right-hand side of the page, it's improved by an exceptional 21 basis points during the quarter, reaching 13.09% obviously, well above our target range and regulatory requirements.

這一獲利數字相當於每股收益 0.45 歐元，年增 24%。最後，非常重要的一點是，關於我們頁面右側的 CET1 滿載資本比率，本季度該比率顯著提高了 21 個基點，明顯達到了 13.09%，遠高於我們的目標範圍和監管要求。

Moving to Page number 5. This page is a summary of the pages to follow. So I will not dwell too much on the page, but just a quick introduction to different highlights of the quarter. First, net interest income grew by 8.5% year-over-year, driven by very strong business activity, up a superb in our view, 15.1% growth in activity. Second, net fees and commissions showed an excellent evolution increasing by 19%. Third, our industry-leading efficiency ratio, it continues to improve, reaching 38.2% this quarter. Fourth, asset quality, it remains solid and is performing better than expected with a cost of risk at 130 basis points. Fifth, our robust capital position, as I just mentioned, and sixth, continued outstanding growth of our underlying business franchise, attracting a record 2.9 million new customers and reaching EUR29 billion in sustainable business in the quarter.

移至第 5 頁。本頁是後續頁面的摘要。因此我不會在頁面上過多地闡述，而只是簡單介紹一下本季度的不同亮點。首先，受非常強勁的商業活動推動，淨利息收入年增 8.5%，我們認為，這一增長非常出色，達到了 15.1%。二是淨手續費及佣金收入呈現良好發展態勢，成長19%。第三，我們在業界領先的效率比率持續提高，本季達到38.2％。第四，資產品質仍穩健，表現優於預期，風險成本為130個基點。第五，正如我剛才提到的，我們的資本狀況強勁；第六，我們的基礎業務特許經營繼續保持出色增長，吸引了創紀錄的 290 萬新客戶，本季度可持續業務達到 290 億歐元。

Slide number 6, as always, the summarized P&L of the quarter. You can find the year-over-year quarterly evolution in the second column from the left in constant. And right next to it, in current terms, the third column from the left. Basically, the P&L continues its impressive evolution, thanks to the strong core revenue growth with a year-over-year increase in gross income of 28% in constant and 13% in current euros and maintaining positive jaws.

投影片 6，一如既往，是本季的損益總結。您可以在左側第二列中找到同比季度變化情況。緊鄰它的，按照現在的說法，就是左邊第三列。基本上，損益表繼續其令人印象深刻的變化，這得益於核心收入的強勁增長，總收入同比增長 28%（以不變歐元計算），增長 13%（以當前歐元計算），並保持正增長。

On this one, regarding the banking tax in Spain, please note that last year, net attributable profit in the first quarter of 2024 had a EUR285 million annual impact recorded in other income and expenses heading. This year, in the first quarter of 2025, we have booked an EUR85 million charge in the income tax heading for the quarterly accrual of the new banking tax because the structure of the tax has changed.

關於這一點，關於西班牙的銀行稅，請注意，去年，2024 年第一季的淨歸屬利潤在其他收入和支出項目中產生了 2.85 億歐元的年度影響。今年，也就是 2025 年第一季度，由於稅收結構發生了變化，我們在所得稅中提列了 8,500 萬歐元的費用，用於新銀行稅的季度應計。

So it's only for the 3 months, EUR85 million under the income tax line versus the EUR285 million in the other income line of last year, the broader messages do not change. But as you compare the figures, the columns, please take into account this set of one-off impacts.

因此，僅就這 3 個月而言，所得稅線下的金額為 8,500 萬歐元，而去年其他收入線下的金額為 2.85 億歐元，更廣泛的資訊並沒有改變。但是當您比較這些數字和列時，請考慮這組一次性影響。

Slide number 7. As usual, let's look into the revenue breakdown. First, net interest income growth remains at very strong levels despite declining rates in our core geographies. NII growing by 8.5% year over year and 1.7% quarter over quarter, again, supported by a very robust activity growth.

投影片編號 7。像往常一樣，讓我們來看看收入明細。首先，儘管我們核心地區的利率下降，但淨利息收入成長仍然保持強勁水準。NII 年成長 8.5%，環比成長 1.7%，這同樣受到非常強勁的活動成長的支持。

Second, net fees and commissions continued their excellent trajectory 19% up versus the same quarter last year. This growth was mainly driven by our payments and asset management businesses compared to the previous quarter, there was a 2.7% decline, but this is completely explained by the seasonal success fees that we record in the fourth quarter in Spain for asset management activity in Spain.

其次，淨費用及佣金持續維持良好成長勢頭，較去年同期成長 19%。這一增長主要得益於我們的支付和資產管理業務，與上一季相比，下降了 2.7%，但這完全可以用我們在西班牙第四季度記錄的資產管理活動季節性成功費用來解釋。

Third, we have had another very strong quarter in net trading income driven by solid performance in Global Markets unit, as many other banks have experienced. And also as a result of all of this, gross income growing by an excellent 28% year-over-year and 3.9% quarter-over-quarter.

第三，正如許多其他銀行所經歷的那樣，受全球市場部門穩健表現的推動，我們本季的淨交易收入再次表現強勁。而且由於所有這些因素，總收入同比增長了 28%，環比增長了 3.9%。

Moving to Slide number 8. Let me now focus on activity and loan growth, which increased, again, very strong 15.1% year-over-year at the group level. This is very encouraging for the coming quarters, especially, as I always say, this growth is delivered profitably. I mean we measure this loan by loan on a marginal basis, through our return on capital framework.

移至幻燈片 8。現在讓我重點談談活動和貸款成長，從集團層級來看，貸款成長再次強勁成長，年增 15.1%。這對於未來幾季來說非常令人鼓舞，尤其是，正如我常說的，這種成長是獲利性的。我的意思是，我們透過資本回報框架，以邊際基礎來衡量這些貸款。

So the profitable growth and the increase in the activity will be helping us in the coming quarters. But in Spain, on the right-hand side of the page, you see the breakdown by the countries. Loan growth in Spain has continued to accelerate, reaching 6.6% year-over-year growth, a growth level, I've foreseen for quite a long time, actually.

因此，獲利成長和活動增加將在未來幾季為我們提供幫助。但在西班牙，在頁面的右側，您可以看到按國家細分的情況。西班牙的貸款成長持續加速，年增率達到6.6％，實際上，我已經預見到這個成長水準很長一段時間了。

And within that, our key segments are performing really well, consumer and credit cards, they grew by 7.5% and aligned with our new strategic priority, lending to enterprises, it grew better than average by 8.5%. In Mexico also, loan growth accelerated significantly, reaching 17.2% year-over-year growth. If you isolate for the FX effect, the (inaudible) currency impact, the growth is still a very strong 14% for Mexico. Consumer and credit cards, they grew by 15.3%, while lending to enterprises, again, a strategic priority for us, a better-than-average remarkable 25%.

其中，我們的主要業務部門表現非常出色，消費者卡和信用卡業務成長了 7.5%，與我們新的策略重點一致，企業貸款業務成長了 8.5%，高於平均水準。墨西哥的貸款成長也顯著加快，年增達 17.2%。如果單獨考慮外匯效應，即（聽不清楚）貨幣影響，墨西哥的成長率仍然非常強勁，達到 14%。消費者卡和信用卡業務成長了 15.3%，而企業貸款（這也是我們的策略重點）成長了 25%，高於平均水準。

Page number 9. Looking forward, obviously, we live in some uncertain times, clearly uncertain times. But given the relatively low leverage levels in our footprint countries, we do believe in the potential of further credit growth without creating too much cost of risk in our core geographies. In the page, you see that. But for example, in Spain, after so many years of deleveraging, we are now less than the average in leverage. And given all the relatively positive macro factors for Spain, we expect the strong loan growth trend to continue.

第 9 頁。展望未來，顯然，我們生活在一個不確定的時代，顯然是不確定的時代。但考慮到我們業務涵蓋的國家的槓桿率相對較低，我們確實相信信貸有進一步增長的潛力，而不會在我們的核心地區造成太大的風險成本。在頁面中，您會看到它。但例如在西班牙，經過這麼多年的去槓桿，我們現在的槓桿率已經低於平均值。鑑於西班牙所有相對積極的宏觀因素，我們預計強勁的貸款成長趨勢將持續下去。

And in the case of Mexico, we discuss it from time to time, we see one of the lowest levels of leverage even in the emerging markets landscape. And with increased bancarization, we do believe that the Mexican financial system is bound to grow healthily in our view going forward.

就我們時常討論的墨西哥而言，即使在新興市場中，它的槓桿率也是最低的之一。隨著銀行化程度的提高，我們相信墨西哥金融體系未來必將健康發展。

Slide number 10, you can see all that positive trend in activity in Spain and Mexico, how it translates into solid core revenue growth in the P&L, even in a declining rate environment. So looking at the charts in the middle, in Spain, NII, it grew by 1.2% year over year despite a decline in the ECB depo rate from March 2024 to March 2025 of 150 basis points.

第 10 張投影片，您可以看到西班牙和墨西哥活動的所有正面趨勢，以及即使在利率下降的環境下，它如何轉化為損益表中穩固的核心收入成長。因此，請查看中間的圖表，在西班牙，儘管歐洲央行存款利率從 2024 年 3 月到 2025 年 3 月下降了 150 個基點，但 NII 同比增長了 1.2%。

In Mexico, NII, it rose by a strong 7.6% year-over-year, once again driven by the robust activity, again, despite a decline in the Central Bank -- Mexican Central Bank rate of 200 basis points in the last year. As you know, over the last two years, we have actively managed our balance sheet sensitivity to rates, both in Spain and Mexico in the context of higher rates.

在墨西哥，NII 年成長 7.6%，這再次受到強勁經濟活動的推動，儘管去年墨西哥中央銀行（墨西哥中央銀行）的利率下降了 200 個基點。如您所知，在過去兩年中，我們積極管理資產負債表對利率的敏感性，無論是在西班牙還是墨西哥，利率都處於較高水平。

We increased the size of our ALCO portfolio and we extended the duration, and we are seeing the benefits of this. We sacrificed some margin, by the way, in the short term in that time when we did that, but we were trying to protect our margin in the future. And again, you are seeing that in the figures. This strategy, combined with the solid growth in the business activity makes us confident in the future NII evolution.

我們增加了 ALCO 投資組合的規模並延長了期限，並且看到了這樣做的好處。順便說一句，我們這樣做在短期內犧牲了一些利潤，但我們試圖在未來保護我們的利潤。再次，您可以從數據中看到這一點。這項策略與業務活動的穩定成長相結合，使我們對未來的 NII 發展充滿信心。

Turning to fee evolution on the page, right-hand side, 6.8% year-over-year increase Spain, 5.8% year-over-year increase in Mexico, mainly driven by asset management. So very good numbers there as well.

翻到頁面右側的費用演變情況，西班牙年增 6.8%，墨西哥年增 5.8%，主要受資產管理推動。所以那裡的數字也非常好。

Slide number 11, left-hand side of the page, we have widened our positive jaws at the group level, driven by a strong performance in gross income. As we said, 28% increase year over year, slower peso growth in costs, 14%. It is also below the group's average inflation rate. As a result, on the right-hand side of the page, you can see our leading efficiency ratio, which has further improved to 38.2%, an improvement of 469 basis points versus last year.

投影片編號 11，頁面左側，受總收入強勁表現的推動，我們在集團層面擴大了積極範圍。正如我們所說，年成長28％，比索成本成長放緩，為14％。這也低於該集團的平均通膨率。因此，在頁面的右側，您可以看到我們的領先效率比率進一步提高至 38.2%，比去年提高了 469 個基點。

Slide number 12. This page shows the positive evolution of our asset quality, asset quality metrics. They are performing ahead of expectations, better than expectations. At the bottom left, you see the cost of risk, it stands at 130 basis points, this improvement is due to better-than-expected performance in most of the business units, but notable improvements in Mexico and Spain. And on the bottom right, both our NPL and coverage ratios are at their best levels for quite some time, standing at 2.9% for NPL and 82% for coverage.

投影片編號 12。本頁顯示了我們的資產品質、資產品質指標的正面變化。他們的表現超乎預期，甚至比預期好。在左下角，您可以看到風險成本，它為 130 個基點，這種改善是由於大多數業務部門的表現優於預期，但墨西哥和西班牙的改善更為顯著。右下角顯示，我們的不良貸款率和覆蓋率都處於相當長一段時間以來的最佳水平，不良貸款率為 2.9%，覆蓋率率為 82%。

Slide number 13. On capital, we have generated an exceptional 21 basis points CET1 in the quarter, bringing our CET1 ratio to 13.09%. And in the waterfall, you see from left to right, our results, 68 basis points. then dividend accrual and AT1, deducting minus 37 basis points. Third, minus 30 basis points due to the RWAs growth, this figure reflects for yet another quarter, our ability to reinvest part of our capital generation into profitable growth.

投影片編號 13。在資本方面，我們在本季度產生了出色的 21 個基點的 CET1，使我們的 CET1 比率達到 13.09%。在瀑布圖中，從左到右可以看到我們的結果，68 個基點，然後是股息應計和 AT1，扣除負 37 個基點。第三，由於風險加權資產成長而減去 30 個基點，這個數字又反映了我們將部分資本創造再投資於獲利成長的能力。

It also includes the result of several risk transfer transactions that we did, which positively contributed 13 basis points to the ratio. So in line with our new strategic framework, which puts even more focus on value and capital creation, with potential users of risk transfers. Our RWAs in the quarter, they are growing much less than our activity.

它還包括我們進行的幾項風險轉移交易的結果，這些交易對該比率產生了 13 個基點的積極貢獻。因此，根據我們的新策略框架，我們更加重視價值和資本創造，並關注風險轉移的潛在用戶。本季我們的風險加權資產增幅遠低於我們的活動增幅。

And you have in the page also a bucket of others, 20 basis points, which comprises, among others. The market-related impacts, which was relatively muted in the quarter and the credit in OC that accounting-wise, it neutralizes the deduction in the P&L bucket due to hyperinflationary accounting.

並且您在頁面上還可以看到其他一些內容，包括 20 個基點等。本季與市場相關的影響相對較小，而 OC 中的信貸從會計角度來看，它抵消了由於惡性通貨膨脹會計而導致的損益表中的扣除額。

Page 14 to show you how we continue growing our franchises through new customer acquisition. And I said it many times before, but we believe that the most healthy way to grow the balance sheet is by expanding our client franchise across all segments.

第 14 頁向您展示我們如何透過獲取新客戶來繼續擴大我們的特許經營權。我之前說過很多次，但我們相信，增加資產負債表的最健康方式是擴大我們所有領域的客戶特許經營權。

In the first 3 months of 2025, we acquired a record 2.9 million new customers, 66% of them joined us through pure digital channels. I mean, populations and the company count in our markets, they don't grow at this pace.

2025 年頭三個月，我們創紀錄地新增了 290 萬客戶，其中 66% 是透過純數位管道加入我們的。我的意思是，在我們的市場中，人口和公司都很重要，它們不會以這種速度成長。

So maintaining such a strong rate of new customer acquisition, it requires a significant and ongoing effort. And thanks to that effort, our active customer base, it has grown from 56 million at the end of March 2020 to more than 78 million as of March 2025, an outstanding increase in our view, over the past 5 years.

因此，要維持如此強勁的新客戶獲取率，需要付出巨大且持續的努力。由於這項努力，我們的活躍客戶群已從 2020 年 3 月底的 5,600 萬增長到 2025 年 3 月的 7,800 多萬，我們認為，在過去 5 年裡，這是一個顯著的增長。

Turning to Slide number 15, sustainability, another strategic priority for us, a key driver of the financial growth. We have set an ambitious goal to channel EUR700 million between 2025 and 2029, more than double the previous target of EUR300 billion set for the 2018 and 2025 period, which we achieved 1 year ahead of schedule, as you know.

轉到第 15 張投影片，永續性是我們的另一個策略重點，也是財務成長的關鍵驅動力。我們制定了一個雄心勃勃的目標，在 2025 年至 2029 年期間投入 7 億歐元，比之前為 2018 年至 2025 年期間設定的 3000 億歐元目標高出一倍多，正如你們所知，我們提前一年實現了這一目標。

And this higher, more ambitious objective will be targeted over a shorter time frame, 5 years instead of 8. So we are determined to push our business through sustainability as well, and we are creating very good numbers. We are -- the results are quite self exponentially, record sustainable finance figure in the first quarter.

而且，這個更高、更雄心勃勃的目標將在更短的時間內實現，即 5 年，而不是 8 年。因此，我們決心透過永續發展來推動我們的業務，並且我們正在創造非常好的業績。我們的業績呈指數級增長，第一季創下了永續財務數字。

And now for the business areas update, I'll turn it to Luisa. Luisa?

現在，關於業務領域的更新，我將交給 Luisa。路易莎？

Thank you very much, Onur, and good morning, everyone. On Slide 17, starting with Spain. Spain delivered yet another impressive set of results, surpassing EUR1 billion net profit in this first quarter of the year, thanks to a strong gross income increasing by more than 6% quarter over quarter.

非常感謝，Onur，大家早安。在第 17 張幻燈片上，從西班牙開始。西班牙再次取得了令人印象深刻的業績，今年第一季淨利潤超過 10 億歐元，這得益於強勁的總收入環比增長超過 6%。

NII has performed remarkably well, growing by 1% quarter-over-quarter despite the lower interest rate environment. This performance is driven by very sound loan growth, particularly in the most profitable segments, as Onur said, consumer and enterprise lending and a higher contribution also from ALCO portfolios.

NII 表現非常出色，儘管利率較低，但環比增長了 1%。這一業績是由非常穩健的貸款成長推動的，特別是在最賺錢的領域，正如 Onur 所說，消費者和企業貸款，以及 ALCO 投資組合的更高貢獻。

Loan growth accelerated during the quarter, reaching 6.6% year-over-year driven by a nearly 20% increase in new loan origination compared to the same period last year. It was also a strong quarter for fees, which grew by 5% on a like-for-like basis with solid growth across all lines. The quarter-on-quarter decline was mainly due to the recognition of asset management success fees in the fourth quarter of last year.

本季貸款成長加速，年增 6.6%，這得益於新貸款發放量與去年同期相比增長了近 20%。本季的費用表現也十分強勁，較去年同期成長 5%，所有業務線均穩健成長。環比下降主要由於去年第四季確認了資產管理成功費。

All in all, strong gross income growth, both in the quarter and year-on-year. This, along with well-contained cost, has brought the efficiency ratio to an exceptional 32%. For its part, risk metrics continued to improve during the quarter, with a further decline in the NPL ratio and an increase in the coverage level, driven by the positive evolution of NPLs. Cost of risk declined 30 basis points better than expected.

整體而言，本季和去年同期的總營收均強勁成長。再加上成本得到有效控制，效率比達到了驚人的 32%。就其本身而言，風險指標在本季度繼續改善，不良貸款率進一步下降，覆蓋率上升，這得益於不良貸款的積極變化。風險成本下降30個基點，優於預期。

Looking ahead, and despite the more uncertain environment, we are maintaining or slightly improving our full year guidance for Spain. In this regard, we are expecting low to mid-single-digit loan growth for the year with a positive bias considering the strong start of the year.

展望未來，儘管環境更加不確定，我們仍維持或略微提高對西班牙的全年預期。在這方面，我們預計今年的貸款成長率將保持在低至中等個位數之間，考慮到今年的強勁開局，預計成長率將呈現正面趨勢。

We reaffirm our guidance for a slight decline in NII even in the context of lower-than-anticipated rates. We remain confident in achieving low single-digit growth in fees subject to market volatility. And finally, we are improving our guidance on cost of risk to around 35 basis points, supported by the solid start of the year.

我們重申，即使在利率低於預期的情況下，NII 仍將略有下降。儘管市場波動，我們仍然有信心實現費用的低個位數成長。最後，由於今年開局良好，我們將風險成本指引提高至約 35 個基點。

Now turning to Mexico. Once again, Mexico delivered exceptional results. with net profit growing by nearly 8% year over year, driven by strong core revenue growth of 7.3% year over year. Net interest income continued to grow robustly, supported by increased lending activity growth.

現在轉向墨西哥。墨西哥再次取得了出色的業績，淨利潤同比增長近 8%，這得益於核心收入同比增長 7.3%。受貸款活動成長推動，淨利息收入持續強勁成長。

Credit demand remains remarkably strong with solid growth across both retail, mainly driven by consumer and SME lending and commercial, where we continue to see healthy dynamics following a very strong fourth quarter, particularly in short-term lending.

信貸需求仍然強勁，零售和商業均實現穩健成長，主要由消費者和中小企業貸款推動，繼第四季度表現強勁之後，我們繼續看到健康的動態，尤其是短期貸款。

In addition, we are seeing an increasing contribution from our ALCO portfolio, which we expect to continue in the coming quarters as rates continue to decline. Fees continued to grow at a healthy pace, increasing by nearly 6% year over year, in addition to strong credit card and payment fees, which represent over 50% of total fees in Mexico, we are seeing an increasing contribution from Asset Management and CIB related fees.

此外，我們看到 ALCO 投資組合的貢獻不斷增加，隨著利率繼續下降，我們預計未來幾季這種貢獻將持續下去。費用繼續以健康的速度成長，年增近 6%，除了強勁的信用卡和支付費用（佔墨西哥總費用的 50% 以上）之外，我們還看到資產管理和 CIB 相關費用的貢獻不斷增加。

Overall, strong revenue growth has allowed us to maintain our efficiency ratio at an impressive 30% despite higher expenses, mainly reflecting the carryover effect from salary reviews and headcount increases particularly related to internalizations and IT profiles during 2024. We expect cost growth to gradually slow down over the course of the year, in line with our high single-digit growth for the year guidance.

總體而言，儘管支出增加，但強勁的收入成長使我們能夠將效率比率維持在令人印象深刻的 30%，這主要反映了薪酬審查和員工人數增加的延續效應，特別是與 2024 年內部化和 IT 概況相關的影響。我們預計成本成長將在年內逐漸放緩，與我們對今年高個位數成長的預期一致。

Finally, asset quality metrics are performing ahead of expectations, impairments declined driven by improved performance in retail portfolios and the cost of risk decreased to 305 basis points in the quarter. All in all, after a very strong start of the year, we remain confident in our ability to continue delivering on our guidance for Mexico throughout the rest of the year. We reaffirm our guidance for loans growth at high single digit and for NII to also grow at high single digit, although below that of activity.

最後，資產品質指標表現超出預期，零售投資組合表現改善推動減損減少，風險成本在本季下降至 305 個基點。總而言之，在經歷了今年非常強勁的開局之後，我們仍然有信心在今年剩餘時間內繼續實現對墨西哥的指導。我們重申貸款成長將保持高個位數，NII 也將保持高個位數成長，儘管低於活動水準。

Despite the expected economic slowdown and the potential impact of provisions from the IFRS 9 macro adjustments, we are maintaining our cost of risk guidance at 350 basis points, supported by the positive evolution of risk metrics at the start of the year.

儘管預計經濟將放緩，且 IFRS 9 宏觀調整的準備金可能會帶來影響，但由於年初風險指標的積極變化，我們仍將風險成本指導維持在 350 個基點。

Going to Slide 19. Turkey reported a net profit of EUR158 million for the first quarter, representing a 10% increase compared to the previous year. Higher revenues and a lower impact from the hyperinflation adjustment more than offset the increase in impairments.

轉到投影片 19。土耳其報告第一季淨利潤為1.58億歐元，比上年增長10%。收入增加和惡性通貨膨脹調整的影響降低足以抵消減損的增加。

As expected, net interest income increased, driven by a significant expansion in the Turkish lira customer spread, up 91 basis points during the quarter. This improvement was largely driven by a decline in Turkish lira deposit costs in the context of declining interest rates.

如預期，受土耳其里拉客戶利差大幅擴大的推動，淨利息收入在本季增加了 91 個基點。這種改善很大程度上是由於利率下降導致土耳其里拉存款成本下降。

Our positive sensitivity to lower rates in Turkey enables us to benefit from a faster downward repricing of our customer deposits. In addition, loan growth continued across both Turkish lira and foreign currency portfolios. We also see strong performance in fees, supported by payment services and higher contributions from asset management and insurance.

我們對土耳其較低利率的積極敏感性使我們能夠從客戶存款的更快向下定價中受益。此外，土耳其里拉和外幣投資組合的貸款均持續成長。我們也看到費用表現強勁，這得益於支付服務以及資產管理和保險的更高貢獻。

On the asset quality front, the cost of risk continued to normalize, standing at 189 basis points in the first quarter, in line with our full year guidance. This reflects higher provisioning needs in the retail segment, consistent with the elevated interest rate environment.

在資產品質方面，風險成本持續正常化，第一季為 189 個基點，與我們的全年指引一致。這反映了零售領域更高的撥備需求，與利率上升的環境一致。

Looking ahead, in the context of temporary monetary tightening to anchor inflation expectations, we expect a progressive but more gradual improvement in the Turkish lira customer spread through 2025. As such, given slightly higher than initially anticipated inflation and interest rates by the year-end, we now expect Garanti BBVA's net profit to close somewhat below EUR1 billion in 2025.

展望未來，在暫時收緊貨幣政策以穩定通膨預期的背景下，我們預計到 2025 年土耳其里拉的客戶利差將出現漸進但更為平緩的改善。因此，鑑於年底通膨率和利率略高於最初預期，我們現在預計 2025 年 Garanti BBVA 的淨利潤將略低於 10 億歐元。

And finally, let's turn to South America. South America continues to deliver a solid earnings contribution to the group with net profit exceeding EUR200 million in the first quarter. Solid results this quarter were supported by revenue growth, lower impairments and a reduced impact from the hyperinflation adjustment in Argentina as the disinflation trend continues.

最後，讓我們把目光轉向南美洲。南美持續為集團帶來穩健的獲利貢獻，第一季淨利超過2億歐元。本季業績穩健，得益於營收成長、減損損失減少以及阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹調整影響的減弱（通貨緊縮趨勢仍在持續）。

Net interest income performed well, driven by loan growth across the most profitable segments and improving customer spreads in Peru and Argentina. Beyond NII, we also saw a positive contribution from fees and stronger net trading income.

淨利息收入表現良好，受利潤最高的部門貸款成長以及秘魯和阿根廷客戶利差改善的推動。除了 NII 之外，我們還看到了費用和更強勁的淨交易收入的積極貢獻。

Additionally, this quarter, we recorded significantly lower impairments in Peru and Colombia, reflecting the improving asset quality trends that we had anticipated, supported by a more favorable economic environment, including lower interest rates and some adjustments to our risk appetite in the most vulnerable portfolios.

此外，本季我們在秘魯和哥倫比亞的減損損失大幅減少，這反映了我們預期的資產品質改善趨勢，並受到更有利的經濟環境的支持，包括較低的利率和對最脆弱投資組合的風險偏好的一些調整。

Overall, the cost of risk for the region stood at 230 basis points below our full year guidance. All in all, the outlook for the region is becoming more positive, supported by an improving economic environment.

總體而言，該地區的風險成本比我們的全年指導低 230 個基點。總而言之，在經濟環境改善的支持下，該地區的前景正變得更加樂觀。

Now back to Onur for the final remarks on the quarterly results.

現在回到 Onur 對季度業績的最後評論。

Thank you, Luisa. And lastly, the last page, Page 21, the main takeaways. Let me not take the time by repeating the key messages, they are already on the page. There are so many positive objectives in the page. But in short, in very short language, we are quite happy, very happy with the performance in the quarter. We continue to focus on creating value, value for our stakeholders.

謝謝你，路易莎。最後，最後一頁，第 21 頁，是主要要點。我不需要花時間重複這些關鍵訊息，它們已經寫在紙上了。該頁面上有很多積極的目標。但簡而言之，用非常簡短的語言來說，我們對本季的表現感到非常高興。我們繼續專注於創造價值，為我們的利害關係人創造價值。

As I just mentioned, we are quite optimistic going forward. Despite all the macro uncertainties, we are quite optimistic. I see very positive dynamics in our businesses, thanks to our diversified model with leading franchises in high-growth markets.

正如我剛才提到的，我們對未來非常樂觀。儘管有種種宏觀不確定性，我們仍然相當樂觀。由於我們在高成長市場中領先特許經營的多元化模式，我看到了我們業務的非常積極的動態。

As such, despite the uncertainty, we maintain our guidance of return on tangible equity of high teens, similar to levels of 2024 that we shared with you in the last quarterly call, we maintained that guidance, but it's an uncertain environment, we see how it evolves, obviously, in the coming weeks and months.

因此，儘管存在不確定性，我們仍維持有形資產回報率達到十幾歲的預期，與我們在上次季度電話會議上與您分享的 2024 年水平相似，我們維持了這一預期，但這是一個不確定的環境，我們顯然會看到它在未來幾周和幾個月內如何發展。

And now back to Patricia for the Q&A. Patricia?

現在回到帕特里夏的問答環節。帕特里夏？

Thank you. Thank you very much, Onur. We are now ready to start with the Q&A. So operator, first question, please.

謝謝。非常感謝，Onur。我們現在準備開始問答環節。接線員，請問第一個問題。

Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A sessions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指示）

Antonio Reale, Bank of America.

安東尼奧·雷亞萊，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning.It's Antonio, Bank of America. Just two questions for me, please. My first one is a follow-up on your guidance on Turkey, is really around NII and cost of risk in the region. We've seen the rate hike, I think, which was late in the quarter.

你好，早安。我是美國銀行的安東尼奧。請問我兩個問題。我的第一個問題是跟進您對土耳其的指導，具體涉及該地區的國家資訊基礎設施和風險成本。我認為，我們已經看到了利率上調，這是在本季末。

So I wonder how would you expect the sequencing of NII to trend in Turkey and your expectations on cost of risk, which was slightly above your full year guidance, which seems to be suggesting in general for the region a stronger second half versus the first half. So if you can share a little bit more color on those two lines and the sequence that would be great.

因此，我想知道您如何預期土耳其的國家資訊基礎設施 (NII) 的排序趨勢以及您對風險成本的預期，這略高於您的全年指導，這似乎總體上表明該地區下半年的表現將強於上半年。因此，如果您可以分享更多關於這兩條線和序列的細節，那就太好了。

My second question is on Spain. We've seen strong activity levels in Q1 on loan growth, you're gaining market share. And even on deposit despite the usual Q1 seasonality, we've seen positive growth in the project. Can you talk a bit more about how this has changed, if any, post tariffs and your expectations for when you would expect to see a trough point in NII in Spain this year? Thank you.

我的第二個問題是關於西班牙的。我們看到第一季貸款成長活躍度強勁，市場佔有率正在擴大。儘管第一季存在常見的季節性因素，但即使在存款方面，我們也看到了專案的積極成長。您能否進一步談談關稅後這一情況有何變化（如果有的話），以及您對今年西班牙國家資訊基礎設施 (NII) 何時會達到最低點的預期？謝謝。

Perfect. Thank you, Antonio. Maybe I'll take Turkey and you take Spain, Luisa. On Turkey, as Luisa has mentioned also in his presentation, we are expecting somewhat lower than the EUR1 billion that we guided you. But if you remember, in the first quarter's call in the end of year quarterly call for in end of January, was it? We did provide a guidance of EUR1 billion, and we were very specific. I remember it very clearly, it's in the documentation as well that this depends on three very important macro parameters. Those three parameters were inflation, interest rates and also the currency level.

完美的。謝謝你，安東尼奧。也許我會選擇土耳其，而你會選擇西班牙，路易莎。關於土耳其，正如路易莎在演講中提到的那樣，我們預計該金額將略低於我們為您指引的 10 億歐元。但是如果您還記得的話，第一季的電話會議是在年底，季度電話會議是在 1 月底召開的，是嗎？我們確實提供了10億歐元的指導，而且非常具體。我記得很清楚，文檔中也說這取決於三個非常重要的巨集參數。這三個參數是通貨膨脹、利率和貨幣水準。

The interest rates that we were planning or that we were foreseeing at that moment was 31%. Now we do think it's going to be 5 -- basically 5 percentage points higher at the end of the year, 36%, 36.5%. Inflation at the time we were expecting we were foreseeing the inflation to be at 26.5%, 26%, 26.5%. Now we are expecting the inflation number to be 31% at the end of the year.

我們當時計劃或預見的利率是 31%。現在我們確實認為到年底這一比例將上升 5 個百分點，即 36%、36.5%。我們當時預期的通貨膨脹率將達到 26.5%、26%、26.5%。現在我們預計年底通膨率將達到 31%。

And then there is also the currency. We were expecting 30% devaluation reaching euro dollar -- euro Turkish lira, reaching 48 at the end of the year. And there might be some also higher -- more devaluation that might be coming along, given all the developments in Turkey.

另外還有貨幣。我們預計歐元兌土耳其里拉貶值 30%，到年底將達到 48。考慮到土耳其的所有事態發展，可能還會有更高——更多的貶值。

So these 3 numbers drive the figure, 1% inflation more the sense -- I'll give you the sensitivity so you can also do the math yourself, Antonio. The 1% inflation has an impact of EUR15 million to EUR20 million in the bottom line profit for BBVA. So 1% inflation, mainly due to hyperinflationary accounting, also it drives many other things indirectly. But EUR15 million to EUR20 million net profit impact.

因此，這 3 個數字決定了 1% 的通貨膨脹率更有意義——我會給你敏感度，這樣你也可以自己計算，安東尼奧。1% 的通貨膨脹將對 BBVA 的底線利潤造成 1500 萬至 2000 萬歐元的影響。因此，1% 的通貨膨脹主要是由於惡性通貨膨脹會計造成的，它也間接推動了許多其他事情。但淨利影響為1500萬歐元至2000萬歐元。

1% more interest rate has EUR25 million to EUR30 million, EUR25 million to EUR30 million negative impact if it's a higher interest rate in the Turkish case. And the valuation, if you have 1% more devaluation, it's EUR5 million to EUR6 million. Again, it has many other indirect impacts. I'm giving you only the change in that respective independent parameters.

在土耳其，每增加 1% 的利率就會產生 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬歐元的損失，如果利率更高，則會產生 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬歐元的負面影響。而估值，如果貶值 1%，價值將達到 500 萬歐元至 600 萬歐元。再次，它還有許多其他間接影響。我只給你對應獨立參數的變化。

Given all these numbers, that's why Luisa has mentioned that the number that we have guided you, EUR1 billion, most likely be. It depends on the macro parameters once again, it depends on these 3 parameters, but would be most slightly lower, somewhat lower than EUR1 billion. But given this, we are also activating some levers, the cost lever, obviously, is something that we are working on. That's why we are saying it's going to be somewhat lower than EUR1 billion.

考慮到所有這些數字，這就是為什麼 Luisa 提到我們指導您的數字 10 億歐元很可能就是這個數字。這再次取決於宏觀參數，取決於這 3 個參數，但最多會略低一些，略低於 10 億歐元。但鑑於此，我們也在啟動一些槓桿，成本槓桿顯然是我們正在努力的。這就是為什麼我們說它將略低於 10 億歐元。

In short, how all of this will be affecting the bottom line? I gave you all the detailed sensitivities, you would see that it's still a very positive figure. It's going to be a growth versus last year, but there's a huge dependency obviously, on the macro parameters. On Spain, Luisa?

簡而言之，這一切將如何影響底線？我向你們提供了所有詳細的敏感度數據，你們會看到它仍然是一個非常正面的數字。與去年相比，這將是一個成長，但顯然這在很大程度上取決於宏觀參數。在西班牙，路易莎？

Yes. Well, I would start by highlighting maybe perhaps the macro environment, as you were mentioning, obviously, with the recent news, we expect a decreasing GDP global environment in general. But I would like to highlight that Spain within the context of the tariffs is one of the countries in Europe that is least affected because it is the services economy, it is driven by exports and services by tourism. It's been enjoying a strong job creation, wage increases, and that has led to actually quite robust growth in the market as a whole.

是的。好吧，我首先要強調一下宏觀環境，正如您所提到的，顯然，根據最近的消息，我們預計全球 GDP 整體環境將會下降。但我想強調的是，在關稅背景下，西班牙是歐洲受影響最小的國家之一，因為它是服務業經濟體，由出口和服務業驅動。它一直在創造大量就業機會，薪資不斷上漲，這實際上帶動了整個市場相當強勁的成長。

And as I was saying, the tariffs in Spain will have less of an impact in other geographies. And within that context, we do expect Spain to continue to be growing the European Union average for this year and going into next year. And within this backdrop, we expect activity trends to be resilient, and we are not seeing in these activity trends even today changes in the pipelines that would indicate that we are not maintaining that guidance in terms of activity growth with that positive bias that we mentioned at the beginning of the call.

正如我所說，西班牙的關稅對其他地區的影響較小。在此背景下，我們確實預期西班牙今年和明年的經濟成長將繼續達到歐盟平均水準。在此背景下，我們預計活動趨勢將具有彈性，即使在今天，我們也沒有看到這些活動趨勢發生變化，這表明我們沒有在活動增長方面保持我們在電話會議開始時提到的積極傾向。

So within that context, with regards to NII, I would highlight several things. The first one is that we have been, as you know, managing the sensitivity of NII to the interest rate environment. We ended last year with circa 5% NII sensitivity. And today, that sensitivity is around 4%, so a slightly lower sensitivity to the rate environment.

因此，在這種背景下，關於 NII，我想強調幾點。第一個是，如你所知，我們一直在管理 NII 對利率環境的敏感度。去年年底，我們的 NII 敏感度約為 5%。如今，這種敏感度約為 4%，因此對利率環境的敏感度略低。

And in that context, we expect that to be gradually heading through the NII line during these quarters. In addition, we have increased our ALCO book by EUR5 billion this quarter, which will also be supportive of the NII. And leading to that, confirming the guidance of a NII slight decline in the year despite a rate outlook that today is slightly more negative or biased to the negative from our 2% terminal rate scenario that we were managing at the beginning of the year. So all in all, a gradual impact decrease and a slight decrease in NII for the year, but again, supported by strong activity dynamics even in the post tariff world and good management, I think, on the ALCO side.

在這種背景下，我們預計本季該數字將逐漸突破 NII 線。此外，本季我們已將 ALCO 帳簿增加了 50 億歐元，這也將為 NII 提供支援。因此，儘管今天的利率前景與我們年初管理的 2% 終端利率情景相比略微更為負面或偏向負面，但仍確認了今年 NII 將略微下降的指導。因此，總而言之，影響逐漸減少，今年的 NII 略有下降，但我認為，即使在後關稅時代，強勁的活動動態和良好的管理也為 ALCO 方面提供了支持。

I'll just add too little data points regarding Spain. We always look into spread in our presentations and so on, which has been and is still is a very critical metric, obviously, but as we have invested in this ALCO strategy that Luisa was talking about, we have to also start looking into NIM. And in the quarter, the NIM of Spain has gone up, up by 7 basis points. So we are seeing the benefit of what we have been doing already in the figures.

我只會添加有關西班牙的太少數據點。我們總是在演示中研究利差等，這顯然過去是、現在仍然是一個非常關鍵的指標，但由於我們已經投資了 Luisa 談到的 ALCO 策略，我們也必須開始研究 NIM。本季，西班牙的淨利差上升，上升了7個基點。因此，我們已經從數據中看到了我們所做工作的好處。

Then regarding the volumes, Antonio, when you look into the market, we are gaining market share. But when you look into the market, the February numbers came out, the March numbers are not out yet from the supervisor. But the new loan production in the first two months of the year versus the last two months -- the first two months of 2024, so year-over-year comparison of the 2-month cumulative, it's up 10% in the market. And we have not seen any decline in that pace in March, in April and so on. So the pipelines are quite strong. So the activity levels continue to be strong, independent of all the uncertainties surrounding the world.

那麼關於銷量，安東尼奧，當你觀察市場時，你會發現我們的市佔率正在增加。但是當你觀察市場時，你會發現二月的數據已經出來了，而主管部門還沒有公佈三月的數據。但今年前兩個月的新增貸款與最後兩個月（2024 年前兩個月）相比，與去年同期相比，兩個月累計新增貸款增加了 10%。3月份、4月份等月份，我們沒有看到這一速度有任何下降。所以管道非常堅固。因此，無論世界範圍內存在何種不確定性，經濟活動水準都將持續保持強勁。

Thank you very much, Antonio. Next question, please.

非常感謝，安東尼奧。請回答下一個問題。

Maksym Mishyn, JB Capital.

Maksym Mishyn，JB Capital。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the presentation and taking our questions. I have two on Mexico and one on the special tax. So on Mexico, was just wondering what's the reason you are not improving the guidance for loan book growth given the 17% increase in the first quarter? And then was there any specific reason for the cost of risk to be lower in the first quarter than what you're guiding for the full year? And then on the special tax, I was just wondering if you apply any deduction related to the 25% threshold of net taxes paid in Spain on the special tax calculation? Thank you.

嗨，早安。感謝您的演講和回答我們的問題。我有兩份關於墨西哥的報告，還有一份關於特別稅的報告。那麼關於墨西哥，我只是想知道，鑑於第一季貸款增加了 17%，為什麼你們沒有提高貸款帳簿成長預期？那麼，第一季的風險成本低於您預測的全年風險成本有什麼具體原因嗎？然後關於特別稅，我只是想知道您是否在特別稅計算中應用了與在西班牙繳納的淨稅 25% 門檻相關的任何扣除？謝謝。

Luisa, maybe we take the tax topic. On Mexico, Maks, the two questions, the loan book growth why aren't we revising our guidance, because we are in this uncertain world that was triggered by these tariff discussions and so on in Mexico is obviously at the core of it. As you do know, relatively speaking, if the tariffs stays as is, Mexico, relatively speaking, will be benefiting from this, but there is too much uncertainty.

路易莎，也許我們可以討論一下稅務話題。關於墨西哥，馬克斯，有兩個問題，貸款帳簿增長，為什麼我們不修改我們的指導方針，因為我們處在這個由這些關稅討論等引發的不確定的世界，墨西哥顯然是其核心。如你所知，相對而言，如果關稅保持不變，墨西哥相對而言將從中受益，但存在太多不確定性。

And we do see that in the growth of the loan book. The 17% growth that you have seen in the first quarter is mainly short-term loans. We have seen some decline in the long-term part of the loan growth. As a result, we have to be cautious and we have to be careful.

我們確實從貸款帳簿的成長中看到了這一點。您在第一季看到17%的成長主要是短期貸款。我們看到長期貸款成長有所下降。因此，我們必須謹慎，必須小心。

In a normal environment, if I had seen the 17% growth versus our high single-digit guidance that we have for the loan growth for the year for Mexico, in a normal environment, we would have upgraded our guidance, but we need to be cautious, and we need to see how things pan out in the coming weeks and months before we can certainly say that it will be a higher figure. So we have some positive dynamics. The pipelines are quite strong. The April numbers are quite strong, but it's -- let's be cautious and let's see what -- how things turn out.

在正常環境下，如果我看到墨西哥今年的貸款成長率達到 17%，而我們對墨西哥今年的貸款成長率的預期僅為個位數，那麼在正常環境下，我們就會上調預期，但我們需要謹慎，我們需要觀察未來幾周和幾個月的情況，然後才能肯定地說成長率會更高。因此我們有一些正面的動力。這些管道非常堅固。四月份的數據相當強勁，但是，讓我們保持謹慎，看看事情會如何發展。

Then on cost of risk, the underlying fundamentals are quite strong, and we are not, again, upgrading the guidance for the same reason. We have to see how things pan out in the coming weeks and months. You have to see the impact of all these tariff discussions in the US, which is going to be reflected also in the activity -- the economic activity of Mexico, we don't see a very clear direct impact from the tariffs.

然後就風險成本而言，基本面相當強勁，基於同樣的原因，我們不會再次上調指引。我們必須看看未來幾週和幾個月的情況如何。你必須看到美國所有這些關稅討論的影響，這也將反映在墨西哥的經濟活動中，我們沒有看到關稅產生的非常明顯的直接影響。

But if US slows down, it all the time, obviously hurts Mexico. So we have to see all those dynamics coming out. I will repeat what I say for both. We would have upgraded our guidance in a normal environment, but we have to see how all this uncertainty come out before we definitely change the guidance. On the tax, Luisa?

但如果美國經濟放緩，這顯然會損害墨西哥的利益。因此我們必須看到所有這些動態的出現。我將重複我對兩者所說的話。在正常環境下，我們會上調我們的指導方針，但在我們明確改變指導方針之前，我們必須看看所有這些不確定性是如何出現的。關於稅收，路易莎？

It's a very short answer. Yes, we are applying the deductions that are established in the law that was and came into effect at the beginning of January.

這是一個非常簡短的回答。是的，我們正在應用 1 月初生效的法律所規定的扣除額。

Thank you very much, Maks. So next question, please.

非常感謝，馬克斯。請問下一個問題。

Marta Sanchez Romero, Citi.

花旗銀行的瑪塔‧桑切斯‧羅梅羅 (Marta Sanchez Romero)。

Thank you very much. My first question is on capital optimization. Onur, you've said 13 bps in the quarter. How much do you expect to generate going forward? And what kind of impact on the P&L we should expect from that? And then my second question is on the cost of deposits in Spain and Mexico. We've seen a very good performance in Spain.

非常感謝。我的第一個問題是關於資本優化。Onur，您說本季成長了 13 個基點。您預計未來能產生多少收益？我們應該預期這會對損益表產生什麼樣的影響？我的第二個問題是關於西班牙和墨西哥的存款成本。我們在西班牙看到了非常出色的表現。

So you've managed to bring it down to 66 bps in the quarter? Where do you see it going forward? And in Mexico, we've seen a bit of something different. So the cost of deposits actually increased despite lower rates. It's true that your loan-to-deposit ratio has increased -- has improved as well to 103. So can you explain what to expect there and the balance of loan growth and deposit growth. Thank you.

那麼，您在本季成功將其降至 66 個基點了嗎？您認為它未來會如何發展？在墨西哥，我們看到了一些不同的事情。因此，儘管利率較低，但存款成本實際上卻增加了。確實，你的貸款與存款比率已經增加——也改善了 103。那麼，您能否解釋一下預期情況以及貸款成長和存款成長的平衡？謝謝。

Thank you, Marta. On the capital topic, the architect is is Luisa. So Luisa, do you want to take it? It will be an objective for you for the year as also.

謝謝你，瑪爾塔。關於首都話題，建築師是 Luisa。那麼，路易莎，你想接受它嗎？這也將成為您今年的目標。

Yes, I realize that, yes. No, I mean I think that definitely, this is, as I mentioned, I think, before, an ongoing dynamic and ongoing process, we will be obviously doing more SRTs going forward. It's difficult to pinpoint a specific number because these deals take quite a lot of time to come to market. They need to be reviewed by the regulator. But I would say that definitely, there's going to be a good pace of SRT contributions on a quarter-on-quarter basis throughout the year.

是的，我意識到了，是的。不，我的意思是，我認為這肯定是，正如我之前提到的，我認為，一個持續的動態和持續的過程，我們顯然會在未來開展更多的 SRT。很難確定一個具體的數字，因為這些交易需要相當長的時間才能進入市場。它們需要接受監管機構的審查。但我肯定會說，全年 SRT 貢獻的環比增長速度將保持良好。

Very good. Regarding the cost of deposits, you asked for the 66, it obviously depends on the ECB rate profile. Marta, you quoted very, very correctly for both cases. But as I said, we should focus more a bit on NIM going forward in both cases, in both Spain and Mexico. And in the context of NIM, we see a slight decline in the NIM in the coming quarters, but a very slight decline, whereas in the customer spread, you would see the number coming down.

非常好。關於存款成本，您要求的是 66，這顯然取決於歐洲央行的利率狀況。瑪爾塔，你對這兩個案例的引用非常非常正確。但正如我所說，我們應該更關注西班牙和墨西哥兩國的 NIM 情況。從淨利息收益率 (NIM) 來看，我們預計未來幾季的淨利息收益率 (NIM) 會略有下降，但下降幅度非常小，而從客戶利差來看，你會看到這個數字下降。

The cost of deposits will be coming down along with that as well. But the spread to me, is less relevant in the coming quarters. It's more the NIM. And what I can tell you is like 2, 3 basis points in the coming -- every quarter, but not much more than that. So the NIM number is a very positive figure.

存款成本也將隨之下降。但對我而言，未來幾季的利差並不那麼重要。它更像是 NIM。我可以告訴你的是，未來每季的增幅大概是 2 到 3 個基點，但不會超過這個數字。因此，NIM 數字是一個非常積極的數字。

Regarding Mexico, again, you caught it very correctly in your question, we did take in some institutional large corporate and public sector deposits in the quarter. That's why the growth in the deposit is very robust, but that obviously comes with a higher cost of deposit, which has been then increasing or influencing the figure that you have seen the cost of deposits going up to 268.

關於墨西哥，您再次在問題中非常正確地指出，我們在本季確實吸收了一些機構大型企業和公共部門的存款。這就是為什麼存款成長非常強勁，但這顯然伴隨著更高的存款成本，這一直在增加或影響你所看到的存款成本上升到 268 的數字。

Once again, the key number to look into is NIM. And in the case of Mexico, in the quarter, NIM has increased, I repeat, increased by 6 basis points. And going forward, we do expect this NIM levels to remain more or less constant, more or less constant. This ALCO strategies -- these ALCO strategies that we have been talking to you about in the past few years obviously is helping in this current context.

再次強調，需要研究的關鍵數字是 NIM。就墨西哥而言，本季度，淨利差增加，我再說一遍，增加了 6 個基點。展望未來，我們確實預期 NIM 水準將基本保持不變。ALCO 策略—我們在過去幾年中一直與您討論的 ALCO 策略顯然在當前情況下有所幫助。

Thank you very much, Marta. Next question, please.

非常感謝，瑪爾塔。請回答下一個問題。

Francisco Riquel, Alantra.

弗朗西斯科·里克爾，阿蘭特拉。

Yes, thank you. Yes. So my first question is a follow-up previous question is the loan growth in Spain, which has been accelerating, meaning that you are widening market share gains that you have -- you were reporting in previous quarters. So I wonder if you can comment on what is the profitability of the new lending, given the tough competition in the sector in Spain.

是的，謝謝。是的。因此，我的第一個問題是與上一個問題相繼的，即西班牙的貸款成長一直在加速，這意味著你們的市場份額正在擴大——你們在前幾個季度報告中已經提到過。因此，我想知道您是否可以評論一下，考慮到西班牙該行業的激烈競爭，新貸款的盈利能力如何。

I also see the quarter-on-quarter growth in loans is mostly geared towards CIB and public sector, which are typically with lower margins. So what is the profitability of the new lending in Spain. And then also in Spain, the costs are flat year-on-year with lower admin costs. So you can explain what are you changing here to reduce the cost base? And if you can update your guidance for the cost for the year? Thank you.

我還發現貸款的季度環比成長主要面向 CIB 和公共部門，這些部門的利潤率通常較低。那麼西班牙新增貸款的獲利能力如何？在西班牙，成本與去年同期持平，管理成本較低。那麼您可以解釋一下您在這裡做了哪些改變來降低成本基礎嗎？您能否更新一下今年的成本指引？謝謝。

Okay, so very quickly on both questions on the, on the profitability of the new lending, as we discussed many times before, we have this loan by loan, and I repeat loan by loan, profitability framework. So every single loan has to pass a certain threshold of return on capital.

好的，關於新貸款盈利能力的兩個問題，我們很快就能回答了，正如我們之前多次討論過的，我們有逐筆貸款的盈利能力框架，我再重複一遍，每筆貸款都有盈利能力框架。因此，每筆貸款都必須達到一定的資本回報率門檻。

In that context, what you see is, as you said, the 10% growth in corporate and CIB, but you are also seeing not 10% in in mid-size companies, mid-size companies also, which comes with very high rock, but independent of the segment, those 10%, they have to deliver the cost of equity. If they don't, they cannot be admitted.

在這種情況下，正如您所說，您看到的是企業和 CIB 的增長率為 10%，但您也看到的是中型公司的增長率不止 10%，中型公司的增長率也很高，但無論其細分市場如何，這 10% 都必須支付股權成本。如果他們不這樣做，他們就不能被錄取。

We are very strict on this. We have a very clear micro capital planning framework around this. Even I personally can see every single loan. That are granted in any part of the world and what is the respective worth the return on capital that comes with it it's all profitable. That's why you also see.

我們對此非常嚴格。我們圍繞這一點有一個非常清晰的微型資本規劃框架。甚至我自己也可以看到每一筆貸款。在世界任何地方都可以獲得這些權利，相應的資本回報是多少，這些都是有利可圖的。這就是為什麼你也看到了。

That's why you also see in Spain the mortgage, the growth is 1.7% and the quarter of growth is, I think 0.3%. We are not growing in mortgage at the moment because the the rote, the return on capital for those loans in our view are less than justified. It doesn't deliver the cost of equity, but in all the other areas you would see a very high return on capital, and that return on capital, if it's not there, we would not be giving that loan in any case.

這就是為什麼你還會看到西班牙的抵押貸款成長率為 1.7%，而季度成長率我認為是 0.3%。目前，我們沒有增加抵押貸款，因為我們認為這些貸款的資本回報率並不合理。它不產生股權成本，但在所有其他領域，你會看到非常高的資本回報率，如果沒有資本回報率，我們無論如何都不會提供這筆貸款。

Then costs in Spain there was a a a relatively small but one off in those numbers in the general there's like 16 million if I'm not mistaken related to VATs and so on. If you add back that 16, the number will be around 2%. 2% growth is the quarterly growth number which is what we have guided you already. So the real number or the without the one-off number is exactly in line with what we have been telling you.

那麼西班牙的成本相對較小，但如果我沒記錯的話，總體而言，與增值稅等相關的成本約為 1600 萬。如果加上那 16 個，這個數字將會在 2% 左右。 2% 的成長是季度成長數字，這也是我們已經指導過的數字。因此，實際數字或不包括一次性數字的數字與我們一直告訴您的完全一致。

Thank very much, Paco. Next question, please.

非常感謝，帕科。請回答下一個問題。

Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Ignacio Ulargui。

Hi, and thanks for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have just one question. I'm trying to get a bit of a sense of the corporate loan book growth that you see in Mexico the other commercial and SME performance, if you could give us a bit of a sense of what is that growth coming if it's more CapEx or if it's OpEx, it's working capital or more longer-term lending just to get a sense of what is driving the growth there? Thank you.

你好，謝謝你的演講和回答我的問題。我只有一個問題。我想了解一下您在墨西哥看到的企業貸款帳簿增長情況以及其他商業和中小企業的表現，您能否給我們講一下這種增長的來源，是更多的資本支出還是運營支出、營運資本還是更多的長期貸款，以便了解推動那裡增長的因素是什麼？謝謝。

There is obviously some long-term natural growth in that as well. But as I mentioned previously, it's mainly as compared to before, profile is changing and the profile is much more short-term working capital now. This is basically upfronting the tariff discussion. Many of our clients, basically, they -- they have been working really hard, building up inventory and sending the inventory, the working capital needs in Mexico. It has -- they have gone up. And as a result, the short-term lending has gone up. So it's most the short-term lending.

顯然，這也會帶來一些長期的自然成長。但正如我之前提到的，主要是與以前相比，情況正在發生變化，現在的狀況是更多的是短期營運資金。這基本上是提前討論關稅問題。我們的許多客戶基本上都在努力工作，建立庫存並發送庫存，滿足墨西哥的營運資金需求。它們已經上漲了。結果導致短期貸款增加。所以大部分都是短期貸款。

Thank you very much, Ignacio. Next question please.

非常感謝，伊格納西奧。請問下一個問題。

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

班傑明‧湯姆斯（Benjamin Toms），加拿大皇家銀行。

Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, just given the ongoing volatility in global trade wars, can you just talk a little bit about how hard you have to stress your financial plan in order for you to not achieve a higher teen RoTE over the next couple of years? And then secondly, on capital, you can tend to trend higher relative to the 15 -- relative to 11.5% to 12% target range. Can you just provide us with the latest expected capital impact from the Sabadell transaction? And can you just reconfirm for us there's no intention in the short term to increase your capital target range? Thank you.

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，鑑於全球貿易戰的持續波動，您能否簡單談談，為了避免在未來幾年內實現更高的青少年 RoTE，您必須如何努力強調您的財務計劃？其次，就資本而言，相對於 15（相對於 11.5% 至 12% 的目標範圍），趨勢可能會更高。您能否提供我們一下薩瓦德爾交易預計帶來的最新資本影響？您能否再次確認一下，短期內您沒有增加資本目標範圍的打算？謝謝。

Very good. On the first question, I hope I got it, but you're asking in this current context, what do we do with the goals and so on. We have guided in the last quarterly call that our mid- to long-term goal in the new strategic plan, 2025, 2029, strategic plan is to deliver mid-teens tangible book value per share plus dividends growth, mid-teens.

非常好。關於第一個問題，我希望我理解了，但您問的是，在當前背景下，我們該如何實現這些目標等等。我們在上一季電話會議上指出，新策略計畫（2025 年、2029 年）的中長期目標是實現每股中等有形帳面價值加上中等股息成長。

As it stands now, it's too early to tell how all this will be panning out once again. But we stick with that guidance. We are already delivering the 14% this quarter, independent of the fact that there was a huge currency devaluation, especially in Turkey, and there was a currency impact in that number. So we stick by that number. As long as we deliver, as we have been delivering today in the last quarter, nothing changes.

就目前情況而言，判斷這一切將如何再次發生還為時過早。但我們堅持這項指導方針。本季我們已經實現了 14% 的成長率，儘管貨幣大幅貶值，特別是土耳其的貨幣貶值，也對這一數字產生了影響。所以我們堅持這個數字。只要我們能夠兌現承諾，就像我們上個季度所做的那樣，什麼都不會改變。

Regarding the capital, the two topics, the only numbers that we can provide you is what was made public in the F4, the SEC reporting you would see that last year, when we started the deal a year ago, it was 30 basis points the impact. Then we updated that number to 38, and the latest number that you will see there is 51.

關於資本，這兩個主題，我們唯一能提供的數字是 F4 中公佈的數字，您會看到，去年，當我們一年前開始這筆交易時，影響是 30 個基點。然後我們將該數字更新為 38，您看到的最新數字是 51。

All this change is because of the dividends that we pay, because when we pay our dividends based on the transaction detail, we also reserve a piece of that dividend to be paid to Sabadell shareholders when we join forces and that dividend impact is the key reason.

所有這些變化都是因為我們支付的股息，因為當我們根據交易細節支付股息時，我們也會保留一部分股息，在我們合併時支付給 Sabadell 股東，而股息影響是關鍵原因。

The 30 has become now 51 basis points in the latest public disclosure. When the numbers are updated just before the transaction, obviously, we will give you more details on the final figures, but the latest public figure, as I mentioned, is 51%. Obviously, this is 100%, 100% takeover.

在最新的公開揭露中，30個基點已變為51個基點。當交易前更新數字時，顯然我們會向您提供有關最終數據的更多詳細信息，但正如我所提到的，最新的公開數據是 51%。顯然，這是100%、100%的收購。

If it's 50% takeover, then the number of changes, it goes up to 60, because there are some minority inefficiencies in that process. But again, we will update you on these figures once we get to the transaction, the expectation period stage.

如果是 50% 的接管，那麼變更的數量就會上升到 60，因為在這個過程中存在一些少數股東的效率低下。但是，一旦我們進入交易、預期期階段，我們將再次向您更新這些資料。

You were asking about the capital requirement. Are we going to be increasing our capital requirement? The answer is no. We have said it many times before, rather than looking at the absolute figure, in our view, we should look into the difference between the requirements and our target.

您詢問的是資本要求。我們要增加資本要求嗎？答案是否定的。我們之前已經多次說過，我們認為，我們不應該看絕對數字，而應該看要求和目標之間的差異。

We have a target at the upper end of our target is 12%, our requirement, regulatory requirement is 9.13%. The difference is 287 basis points. So we have a buffer -- in our management target, we have a buffer of 287 basis points with the latest requirement that we have from the regulators.

我們的目標上限是 12%，我們的要求，監管要求是 9.13%。差異為287個基點。因此，我們有一個緩衝——在我們的管理目標中，我們有一個 287 個基點的緩衝，以滿足監管機構的最新要求。

What is that same number, 287 basis points? What is that same number for the rest of the European banking sector? Our peer group is the largest 15 European banks. The EU banks in that group is -- there are 10. The average of that 10 is 219 basis points.

那個相同的數字是多少，287 個基點？歐洲其他銀行業的數字是多少？我們的同業是歐洲最大的 15 家銀行。該集團內的歐盟銀行有 10 家。這 10 個的平均值為 219 個基點。

So when you look into the absolute figure, you would see other banks with potentially higher requirements and potentially higher management references, but the requirement is much higher. So in this gap, we have a very nice buffer in our view. As such, we will maintain our 12% guidance, 12% target.

因此，當您查看絕對數字時，您會看到其他銀行的要求可能更高，管理參考可能更高，但要求要高得多。因此，我們認為，在這個差距中有一個非常好的緩衝。因此，我們將維持 12% 的指導和 12% 的目標。

Thank you very much, Benjamin. Next question, please.

非常感謝，本傑明。請回答下一個問題。

Carlos Peixoto, CaixaBank.

卡洛斯·佩索托（Carlos Peixoto），CaixaBank。

Hello, good morning. A couple of questions from my side as well. The first one being on Spain. So basically, you have fee income going up by 7% this year. However, you're sticking to a low single-digit growth guidance for the year. I was wondering here is this just being conservative or whether there are rational for this growth in fees to slow down and a bit the same rationale on the cost of risk. So you had a 45% guidance -- 45 basis points guidance for the full year, 30 basis points in the first Q, is this because you're expecting the inputs macro updates or something like that to drive a bit further the cost of risk? Or it's more of a conservative stance I'm just trying to understand the rationale there.

你好早安。我也有幾個問題。第一個是關於西班牙的。所以基本上，今年的費用收入將上漲 7%。然而，您仍堅持今年的低個位數成長預期。我想知道這是否只是保守的做法，或者費用成長放緩是否有道理，風險成本也有同樣的道理。所以您有 45% 的指導 - 全年 45 個基點的指導，第一季 30 個基點，這是因為您預計輸入宏觀更新或類似的東西會進一步推高風險成本嗎？或者這更像是一種保守的立場，我只是想了解其中的理由。

And then a second question on Turkey. Just a clarification, actually. You mentioned now net profit should be below EUR1 billion. But are you maintaining the 100 basis points cost of risk indication for the unit? Thank you.

然後是關於土耳其的第二個問題。實際上，只是澄清一下。您現在提到淨利潤應該低於10億歐元。但您是否維持該單位 100 個基點的風險成本指示？謝謝。

Thank you Carlos on the Spanish guidance, Luisa.

感謝卡洛斯 (Carlos) 的西班牙語指導，路易莎 (Luisa)。

Well, with regards to the fee income, I think we do maintain the low single-digit growth, and especially, I think, in this context, as you know, about 40% of our fees in Spain come from asset management. Asset management has been growing significantly year-on-year. But we do see that, obviously, the mark-to-market has an impact also potentially on growth going forward. And that's why we feel comfortable in maintaining those single-digit growth fee guidance for the year, again, subject to market volatility.

嗯，關於費用收入，我認為我們確實保持了低個位數成長，特別是，我認為，在這種背景下，如你所知，我們在西班牙約 40​​% 的費用來自資產管理。資產管理規模逐年大幅成長。但我們確實看到，顯然，以市價計價也可能對未來的成長產生影響。這就是為什麼我們放心維持今年個位數的成長費用指引，但同樣要受到市場波動的影響。

The underlying dynamics on the fees, as you were mentioning, are quite positive, aside from the asset management, also on the banking services, payments and insurance, particularly, I would highlight that the insurance fees are also growing quite nicely. But I think the guidance captures all of that positive growth going forward.

正如您所說，除了資產管理之外，費用的基本動態也相當積極，銀行服務、支付和保險也是如此，特別是我想強調的是，保險費用也在相當好地增長。但我認為該指引涵蓋了未來所有的正面成長。

And with regards to the cost of risk number, we are guiding for a lower cost of risk number this year. We're going to move our cost of risk guidance at the beginning of the year. You may remember, was at or slightly below 38 basis points. The underlying dynamics of the quarter have come in significantly stronger than what we were anticipating. And I think that has allowed us that even despite the uncertainty in general, we feel comfortable in lowering the guidance of cost of risk to around 35 basis points in Spain for the year.

關於風險成本數字，我們預計今年的風險成本數字將會降低。我們將在年初調整風險成本指引。您可能還記得，利率處於或略低於 38 個基點。本季的潛在動力明顯強於我們的預期。我認為，儘管總體上存在不確定性，我們仍然可以放心地將西班牙今年的風險成本指導價下調至 35 個基點左右。

And then regarding Turkey, Carlos, I just realized that I didn't answer one of the previous questions also on this. So the cost of risk in the quarter was 189 basis points in Turkey. Our guidance was actually 180 basis points. So the guidance that we provided in the last quarter was 180. It's not that different from our guidance. We stick to our guidance.

然後關於土耳其，卡洛斯，我剛剛意識到我還沒有回答之前的一個問題。因此，土耳其本季的風險成本為 189 個基點。我們的指導其實是 180 個基點。因此，我們在上個季度提供的指導是 180。這與我們的指導並沒有什麼不同。我們堅持我們的指導方針。

But as I just mentioned, Turkey, the macro parameters, they have moved and they might move even more. Even the profit figure that they are guiding today. I gave you, that's why the full sensitivity on the independent variables that drive that number. So we have to see how things again also develop in Turkey as it stands, we stick with our guidance of 180 basis points.

但正如我剛才提到的，土耳其的宏觀參數已經發生了變化，而且可能會變化得更大。甚至他們今天指導的利潤數字。我給你了，這就是為什麼對驅動該數字的獨立變數有充分的敏感性。因此，我們必須觀察土耳其的情況如何發展，我們堅持 180 個基點的指導方針。

Thank you very much. Next question please.

非常感謝。請問下一個問題。

Sofie Peterzens, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的索菲·彼得森斯（Sofie Peterzens）。

Yes, hi, thanks for taking my question. My first question would be, we've seen quite a lot of FX productivity in the recent months. Can you just remind us of how much hedging you have done both on the capital side, but also on the P&L side, especially of Mexico and Turkey?

是的，你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是，近幾個月來我們看到外匯生產力大幅提高。您能否提醒我們您在資本方面以及損益方面進行了多少對沖，特別是針對墨西哥和土耳其？

And then my second question would be, we have seen a quite strong performance once again in risk businesses with reasonably big beat versus consensus estimates. Could you kind of give us a little bit more detail around the rest of this is the stake? Are we going to get some additional details on Italy soon and how should we think about this bucket? Thank you.

我的第二個問題是，我們再次看到風險業務表現相當強勁，並且超越普遍預期。您能否向我們詳細介紹其餘部分？我們是否很快就會得到有關意大利的更多詳細信息以及我們應該如何看待這個問題？謝謝。

Very good. Thank you, Sofie. On the hedging, as you know, we do two sets of hedges by currency, but one of them is to protect against capital to protect against currency for capital. We hedge excess capital. Our policy is that we usually hedge 60% to 70% of the excess capital.

非常好。謝謝你，索菲。關於對沖，如您所知，我們根據貨幣進行兩套對沖，但其中一套是對沖資本，以防範貨幣對沖資本。我們對沖過剩資本。我們的政策是，通常對沖60%至70%的超額資本。

The piece that is not naturally hedged because we also have in the denominator, as you know, the respective currency loan book and so on. So the excess capital, 60% to 70% in that context. In Mexico, at the moment, we are hedging 56% of the excess capital. And in Turkey, we are hedging 24% of the excess capital.

這部分不是自然對沖的，因為如你所知，分母中還有相應的貨幣貸款帳簿等等。因此，在這種情況下，過剩資本佔60％到70％。在墨西哥，目前，我們正在對沖56％的過剩資本。在土耳其，我們對 24% 的過剩資本進行了對沖。

Then we have another set of hedges for P&L and the P&L hedges go look into the next 12 months profit expectation, and we hedge 40% to 50% as a policy in general. And we changed that policy depending on cost of hedging, depending on the environment and so on. But typically, 40% to 50% of the next 12-month profit is also hedged. And in that context, at the moment, we have 62% hedges for Mexican peso, and we have 30% hedges in Peru, Colombia and Turkey.

然後，我們還有另一套損益對沖，損益對沖會考慮未來 12 個月的利潤預期，我們一般將對沖率定為 40% 到 50%。我們根據對沖成本、環境等因素改變政策。但通常情況下，未來 12 個月利潤的 40% 到 50% 也會被對沖。在此背景下，目前，我們對墨西哥比索的對沖率為 62%，對秘魯、哥倫比亞和土耳其的對沖率為 30%。

You will see that in the Turkish numbers are a bit below the typical policy that we have mainly for the cost of hedging. I mean as you know, the interest rate and the forward curve and so on, it entails a very high cost to do the hedging. As such, we are slightly lower than our usual policy for Turkey. And we are slightly above in Mexico for the Mexican peso. There is also a dollar sensitivity that the bank has for you to know.

您會發現，土耳其的數字略低於我們主要為對沖成本而製定的典型政策。我的意思是，如你所知，利率和遠期曲線等，進行對沖需要非常高的成本。因此，我們對土耳其的政策略低於通常的政策。而墨西哥比索的匯率則略高於墨西哥。您還需要了解銀行對美元的敏感度。

And in this current context, it's very important because we do have in dollars, some are WAs and we don't have equity in dollar too much. That's why we also -- for the capital consideration, we also do a dollar hedging. The hedging of that goes through P&L because accounting rules tell us that it has to go through P&L. So that is the US dollar euro hedging that we do also in the policy. And then rest of our business.

在當前情況下，這一點非常重要，因為我們確實擁有美元，有些是 WA，而且我們沒有太多的美元股權。這就是為什麼我們出於資本考慮，也進行美元對沖。對此進行避險需要透過損益表進行，因為會計規則告訴我們，它必須透過損益表進行。這就是我們在政策中採取的美元歐元對沖措施。然後是我們其餘的業務。

Yes. Well, as you know, the rest of the business area includes primarily the CIB business that is carried out in the branches that we have in CIB primarily the European, UK, Asia and New York, where the, I would say, the more relevant activity comes from CIB Europe and CIB, the US on the back of the strategic initiatives that took place already a few years ago of increasing our presence in CIB.

是的。嗯，如您所知，其餘業務領域主要包括 CIB 業務，該業務在我們位於歐洲、英國、亞洲和紐約的 CIB 分支機構開展，其中，我想說，更相關的活動來自 C​​IB 歐洲和 CIB 美國，這是在幾年前已經採取的增加我們在 CIB 業務的戰略舉措的支持下開展的。

And this result of rest of business is quite consistent with the enterprise segment and particularly the CIB business being a core part of our strategic road map going forward. And so what you're seeing here is a strong growth year-on-year on activity. Loans have been growing around 23% year-on-year, boosted as I said, by CIB, primarily -- well, I would say, across the board, and it's been in investment banking and finance, project finance, corporate lending, basically accompanying our clients to these footprints where they want to work, and we're basically going with them in this sense.

其餘業務的結果與企業部門的結果非常一致，特別是 CIB 業務是我們未來策略路線圖的核心部分。因此，您在這裡看到的是活動量同比強勁增長。貸款年增約 23%，正如我所說，這主要得益於 CIB 的推動——我想說，是全方位的，包括投資銀行和金融、專案融資、企業貸款，基本上陪伴我們的客戶到達他們想要工作的地點，從這個意義上來說，我們基本上是與他們同行。

In this regard, aside from a PLM perspective, aside from the strong growth in activity, coming from the development of our strategic initiatives and growth. We have seen NII being a good driver of the rest of business year-on-year, supported by activity, but also price management, the activity and the profitability is Onur mentioned of the CIB business is quite high. Fees have also had a remarkable increase year-on-year also quarter-on-quarter arising by extraordinary results in investment banking and finance, relevant deals across the different geographies, the typical activity that you would expect.

在這方面，除了從 PLM 角度來看，除了活動的強勁成長之外，還來自於我們的策略舉措和成長的發展。我們看到，NII 成為其他業務逐年增長的良好推動力，這得益於活動以及價格管理，Onur 提到的 CIB 業務的活動和盈利能力相當高。由於投資銀行和金融業務的出色業績、不同地區的相關交易以及人們所期望的典型活動，費用同比和環比均有顯著增長。

And NTI has been quite remarkable also from Global Markets perspective across the different activities. I would highlight that this is more and more driven by recurring client activity, not by one of transactions. So all in, I think the gross revenues are highlighting the investments that we've been doing in the business. And we expect that the contribution of rest of business going forward will continue to increase as these new strategic initiatives are deployed.

從全球市場角度來看，NTI 在各項活動中的表現也相當出色。我想強調的是，這越來越多是由經常性客戶活動所驅動的，而不是由某筆交易驅動的。總而言之，我認為總收入凸顯了我們在業務上所做的投資。我們預計，隨著這些新策略措施的實施，未來其他業務的貢獻將持續增加。

Very good. Sofie, one final thing. In terms of -- I gave you all the percentages, but the final impact of all of this is the sensitivity in capital sensitivity of capital to the currency devaluations. And you have that page in Page 43. I think in the back up, there is a clear page which says after all of this, after all the hedgings that I just talked to you about, the sensitivity of the Mexican peso is 9 basis points. So if there is a devaluation in 10% devaluation in Mexican peso, our CET1 would be reducing by 9 basis points. And the same number is 4 basis points for Turkish lira and the other way around, plus 17 basis points for dollar. You have it in the details, okay?

非常好。蘇菲，最後一件事。就——我給了你們所有的百分比，但所有這些的最終影響是資本對貨幣貶值的敏感度。該頁面位於第 43 頁。我認為在備份中，有一個明確的頁面，上面寫著在所有這些之後，在我剛才和你談到的所有對沖之後，墨西哥比索的敏感度是 9 個基點。因此，如果墨西哥比索貶值 10%，我們的 CET1 將減少 9 個基點。而土耳其里拉的匯率是 4 個基點，反之亦然，再加上美元的匯率 17 個基點。你已經知道詳細資料了，好嗎？

Thank you, Sofie. Next question, please.

謝謝你，索菲。請回答下一個問題。

Hugo Cruz, KBW.

雨果·克魯茲，KBW。

Hi, thank you. I just wanted to ask you about Eurozone NII in Spain. Should we start thinking about yield curve steepness, I think people are still thinking a lot about rates are going to go down. So therefore, your NII goes down. But we have a steep real curve, which we haven't had for many years. So as we go a little bit further 2, 3 years out, could we actually see higher NII than we have this year, given that steepness. If you could give us any guidance, that would be very helpful. Thank you.

你好，謝謝。我只是想問您有關西班牙歐元區國家資訊基礎設施 (NII) 的問題。我們是否應該開始考慮殖利率曲線的陡度，我認為人們仍在考慮利率將會下降。因此，您的 NII 就會下降。但我們的實際曲線卻很陡峭，這是我們多年來從未有過的。因此，考慮到這種陡度，如果我們再往後推 2、3 年，我們實際上是否可以看到比今年更高的 NII。如果您能給我們任何指導，那將會非常有幫助。謝謝。

The steepness would help, Hugo, but the level -- the short-term level is also very important. For a single reason, we do all the hedging and so on that we talked to you about from time to time. But most of the lending book that we have in Spain, the reference rate for the repricing of that loan book is short term. Basically, all the corporate and mid-corporate lending book, the reference is EURIBOR 3 months.

陡度會有所幫助，雨果，但水平——短期水平也很重要。出於一個原因，我們會進行所有我們不時與您談論的對沖等工作。但我們在西班牙的大多數貸款中，重新定價的參考利率都是短期的。基本上，所有企業和中型企業貸款帳簿，參考的都是 3 個月的 EURIBOR。

And for the mortgage book, the reference is EURIBOR 12 months independent of the -- we price it properly. We price it based on the duration of the product, but the reference itself is the short term. So your question of would the NII go up in 2, 3 years? My question back to you is what is the forecast of the -- not only the curve, but also the different parts of the curve. The steepness helps you might have seen in this, in the quarter, we have increased our ALCO book by EUR5 billion in Spain.

對於抵押貸款帳簿，參考的是 12 個月的 EURIBOR，與之無關——我們對其進行了適當的定價。我們根據產品的持續時間來定價，但參考本身是短期的。所以你的問題是 NII 會在 2 到 3 年後上升嗎？我的問題是，曲線的預測是什麼？對曲線的不同部分也是一樣。您可能已經看到了其中的陡度幫助，在本季度，我們在西班牙的 ALCO 帳簿增加了 50 億歐元。

There was a period, I think it was the beginning of March, at the beginning of March when the yields have picked up in the long end and we benefited from that, and we increased the ALCO book. So the steepness helps, and we take some certain strategies out of this. But given the nature of the lending book and the references for the lending book, I wouldn't discard also the level of the short-term rates in the NII calculation.

有一段時間，我想應該是三月初，三月初，長期收益率有所回升，我們從中受益，並增加了 ALCO 帳簿。因此陡度是有幫助的，我們從中採取了一些特定的策略。但考慮到貸款帳簿的性質和貸款帳簿的參考資料，我不會在 NII 計算中放棄短期利率的水平。

Thank you very much, Hugo. Next question, please.

非常感謝，雨果。請回答下一個問題。

Britta Schmidt, Autonomous Research.

布里塔‧施密特 (Britta Schmidt)，自主研究。

Yes, hi there. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got a couple on Mexico. You commented on the Mexican loan growth being primarily short-term lending. How should we think about that in the context of the net interest margin? Or should we assume that this lending still meets your profitability hurdles? I think you also had some severance payments in Mexico. Could you tell us how much that was?

是的，你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我有一些關於墨西哥的事情。您評論說墨西哥的貸款成長主要是短期貸款。我們該如何從淨利差的角度來思考這個問題？或者我們應該假設這些貸款仍然符合你的獲利目標？我想您在墨西哥也獲得了一些遣散費。你能告訴我們那是多少嗎？

And is that an indication maybe of you trying to manage the profitability with a weaker outlook? And then just two clarifications, what is your expectation on the recognition of the Spanish bank tax for 2024 that hasn't been booked yet? What are the discussions there? And maybe just an update on the Sabadell deal and whether or not you've had any recent questions with the government on this situation. Thank you.

這是否表明您試圖以較弱的前景來管理盈利能力？然後只需澄清兩點，您對尚未入帳的 2024 年西班牙銀行稅的確認有何期望？那裡討論的是什麼？也許只是想了解薩瓦德爾交易的最新情況，以及您最近是否就此事向政府提出任何疑問。謝謝。

Very good. The second one, I couldn't get -- it's about payments. Did you get it Luisa?

非常好。第二個，我無法得到——它是關於付款的。路易莎，你收到了嗎？

Severance payments.

遣散費。

Severance payments Okay. So you have it wrong to do that. On the profitability of the loan book and the short term, whether we can take it for the coming quarters. Britta once again, independent of the duration of the loan, short term, long term, the product, it doesn't matter, every single product, every single loan, depending also on the currency has a threshold to pass. Don't take me wrong. We also invest in clients. We call it exception pools.

遣散費 好的。所以你這樣做是錯的。關於貸款帳簿的獲利能力以及短期內我們是否可以在未來幾季內實現這一目標。布里塔再次強調，無論貸款期限是短期或長期，產品是什麼，每一種產品、每筆貸款，都取決於貨幣，都有一個門檻。別誤會我的意思。我們也對客戶進行投資。我們稱之為異常池。

So you can be below the threshold for a certain period of time, but it has to be a scarce resource that exception pool, and then you invest in a client in a certain period of time, you still need to get to profitability. Otherwise, that clients will be there forever in that exception pool. I'm giving you the details of how we manage this.

因此，你可以在一定時期內低於閾值，但它必須是例外池中的稀缺資源，然後你在一定時期內投資客戶，你仍然需要獲得獲利。否則，客戶端將永遠存在於該異常池中。我將向您詳細介紹我們如何處理此事。

What I can tell you is that independent of short or long term, we are making sure that this growth is profitable. Otherwise, it would be then otherwise coming into the exception pool. It would be over passing the exception for limits and so on, quite profitable.

我可以告訴你的是，無論短期或長期，我們都確保這種成長是有利可圖的。否則，它就會進入異常池。這將超越限制等例外情況，相當有利可圖。

The thing that we are not upgrading our activity or NII and maintaining our guidance is, once again, we don't know how sustainable this growth will be in the coming quarters. And the short term has been really good. And by the way, it continues to be good. And the pipelines are very strong. April numbers are quite strong. But there is a big uncertainty that the circles us, all of us. And we have to see how things pan out once again, I'm repeating myself, but it's important that you understand that uncertainty.

我們沒有升級我們的活動或NII並維持我們的指導，因為我們再次不知道這種成長在未來幾季的可持續性。短期來看，效果確實不錯。順便說一句，情況一直很好。而且管道非常堅固。四月份的數據相當強勁。但我們所有人周圍都存在著很大的不確定性。我們必須再次看看事情如何發展，我再說一遍，但重要的是你要理解這種不確定性。

Regarding the severance payments, you didn't ask it, nobody asked it before. But in the cost number of Mexico, you see a slight jump in the quarterly growth in the year-over-year growth also for one single reason.

關於遣散費，你沒有問，以前也沒人問過。但在墨西哥的成本數字中，你會看到季度成長和年成長略有成長，這也是出於一個原因。

We have been increasing our employee base, as you know quite well, in the last 3 years, there were a lot of competitive discontinuities in the market, and we wanted to benefit from the fact that we can gain clients, gain market share, gain profitable business when there is that competitive discontinuity.

我們一直在擴大員工隊伍，正如您所知，在過去 3 年裡，市場上出現了很多競爭不連續性，我們希望從中受益，因為在競爭不連續性存在的情況下，我們可以獲得客戶、獲得市場份額、獲得盈利業務。

And from time to time, we really look into that growth and we do programs. In the first quarter of this year, we have done a program of redundancy or severance, 5% of our employees in Mexico have been affected from this.

有時，我們會認真研究這種增長並製定計劃。今年第一季度，我們實施了裁員或遣散計劃，墨西哥有5%的員工受到了影響。

It was a very normal process. It wasn't like suddenly, there is a huge program, no, based on a periodical review, we do this from time to time, but you do see that in the employee figures in Mexico. It affected around 2,500 people and so on.

這是一個非常正常的過程。這不是突然出現的一個龐大的計劃，不，是基於定期審查，我們會不時地這樣做，但你確實在墨西哥的員工數據中看到了這一點。約有 2,500 人受到影響。

As a result of that restructuring program, the severance indemnifications as the cost came into that figure. So this 11-point -- if I'm not mistaken, 11.7% that you see in the cost growth of Mexico year-over-year, around 3% of that is driven by that one-off indemnification payments for the severance, and that is -- that has led to this figure. Spanish banking tax, Luisa 2024.

由於此重組計劃，遣散費補償金作為成本計入了該數字。所以這個 11 點——如果我沒記錯的話，墨西哥的成本同比增長是 11.7%，其中約 3% 是由一次性遣散費補償金造成的，這就是這個數字。西班牙銀行稅，Luisa 2024。

Well, we are waiting to have clarity on the legislation to be applied for the 2024 number, and how that will be translated into the definition of the tax, the accounting of the tax and the payment of the tax. So basically, it's more wait and see, I think, at the moment.

好吧，我們正在等待有關適用於 2024 年數字的立法的明確規定，以及這將如何轉化為稅收的定義、稅收的會計和稅收的繳納。所以基本上，我認為目前更多的是觀望。

More wait and see. On the Sabadell deal, you were asking for the process. The process, we are at the final stages as we understand all the CNMC, the competition authority of Spain is taking their final decision on the topic. Once that decision is taken, then there is a process of the government, and it continues, as we have discussed many times before. There's 15 working days plus -- potentially 15 days and potentially 30 days of the government after the decision of the CNMC, then the expectation period will start. But we are in the final stages of the CNMC, we are waiting for the decision to come in the coming days, basically.

還是拭目以待吧。關於薩瓦德爾交易，您要求的是流程。據我們了解，該進程已進入最後階段，西班牙競爭管理機構 CNMC 正在就此問題做出最終決定。一旦做出決定，政府就會啟動一個流程，並繼續進行，正如我們之前多次討論過的那樣。在 CNMC 做出決定後，政府可能需要 15 個工作日，甚至可能是 15 天或 30 天，然後才能開始預期期。但我們正處於 CNMC 的最後階段，基本上我們正在等待未來幾天做出的決定。

Thank you very much, Britta. Next question, please.

非常感謝，布里塔。請回答下一個問題。

There are no further questions, so I'll now hand back to the management team.

沒有其他問題了，我現在將主題交還給管理團隊。

So well, that was the last question. Thank you very much for joining the call and for your questions. What -- we keep in touch. So we are at your disposal for any further questions you may have.

好吧，這是最後一個問題。非常感謝您參加電話會議並提出問題。什麼——我們保持聯繫。因此，如果您還有任何疑問，我們隨時為您解答。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you. Thank you very much.

謝謝。非常感謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining everyone. You may now disconnect your line.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。