Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to BBAV's quarterly audio webcast. As in previous quarters, I'm joined today by our CEO, Onur Genc; and the Group CFO, Luisa Gomez Bravo.

早安，歡迎大家收聽BBAV的季度音訊網路廣播。與往季一樣，今天我的嘉賓包括執行長Onur Genc和集團財務長Luisa Gomez Bravo。

Today, along with the second quarter results, we are also announcing the group's midterm goals. Accordingly, we will dedicate the first part of the call to reviewing the quarterly figures and then move on to our strategic objectives. Finally, we will open the line for your questions.

今天，除了公佈第二季業績外，我們還將宣布集團的中期目標。因此，電話會議的第一部分將用於回顧季度數據，然後討論我們的策略目標。最後，我們將開放提問環節。

So without further delay, I turn over to Onur.

因此，不再拖延，我現在把麥克風交給 Onur。

Thank you. Thank you, Patricia. Good morning to everyone. Welcome, and thank you for joining BBVA's second quarter 2025 earnings webcast. As Patricia, mentioned, we have two things today, the second quarter results, as always. And we also have medium-term objectives at the end of the presentation.

謝謝。謝謝帕特里夏。大家早安！歡迎大家收看BBVA 2025年第二季財報網路直播。正如派翠西亞所提到的，我們今天有兩件事要講：一如既往地發布第二季業績；在演講最後，我們還會討論中期目標。

So let me start with the second quarter results and starting with slide number 3. You can see in the quarter the strong evolution of tangible book value per share plus dividends on the left-hand page, which increased 14.6% year over year and 2.9% in the quarter, very good figures despite the relatively high currency depreciations in the quarter.

那麼，讓我先從第二季的業績開始，從第三張投影片開始。您可以在左側頁面上看到本季度每股有形賬面價值加上股息的強勁變化，同比增長 14.6%，本季度增長 2.9%，儘管本季度貨幣貶值幅度相對較大，但數據仍然非常好。

On the right-hand side, you see our profitability. Our profitability continues to improve and rises to an outstanding return on tangible equity of 20.4% and the return on equity of 19.5% in the first six months of 2025.

右側是我們的獲利能力。我們的獲利能力持續提升，2025年上半年，有形股東權益回報率（ROE）達20.4%，股東權益回報率（ROE）達19.5%。

On Page number 4 on the left-hand side, another very strong quarter for the net attributable profit reaching EUR2.749 billion, despite the falling rates in our core markets, which obviously negatively impacted our results. And despite the currency hedge, we have managed to sustain our record profit levels.

左側第4頁顯示，儘管核心市場利率下降對我們的業績產生了明顯的負面影響，但我們的季度淨利潤依然強勁，達到27.49億歐元。儘管進行了貨幣對沖，我們仍然保持了創紀錄的利潤水平。

In this profit figure, there are two extraordinary items that I want to make you aware of, which affects the Spanish business unit and the holding -- the corporate center only in different accounting lines. But to be specific, first, in the second quarter, we have closed a tax audit process in Spain, covering fiscal years 2017 to 2020. This tax audit, it resulted in some positive impacts leading to the release of some fiscal provisions affecting the tax rate. So the tax line item is affected from this.

在這個利潤數據中，我想提醒大家注意兩個非經常性項目，它們對西班牙業務部門和控股公司（也就是企業中心）的影響僅在於不同的會計科目。具體來說，首先，在第二季度，我們結束了西班牙的稅務審計流程，涵蓋2017至2020財年。這項稅務審計產生了一些正面影響，導致一些影響稅率的財政條款得以發布。因此，稅務項目受到了影響。

And also a review of VAT, the value-added tax payment calculations. This latter, the VAT topic, it has a positive impact on the operating expenses, operating expenses lines in Spain and then the corporate center. Another extraordinary item to note is the negative NTI impact of US dollar hedges that are in place to many volatility of our CET1 ratio, as you all know. The impact was obviously relatively high this quarter due to US

此外，也要檢討增值稅（VAT）的計算方法。增值稅這個主題對西班牙的營運費用以及公司總部的營運費用產生了積極影響。另一個需要注意的特別事項是，美元對沖對我們CET1比率的許多波動產生了負面的NTI影響，這一點大家都知道。由於美元，本季的影響顯然相對較大。

dollar depreciation against euro. And starting from this quarter, third quarter 2025, the hedges will be accounted for under capital rather than P&L.

美元兌歐元貶值。從本季（2025年第三季）開始，避險將計入資本而非損益。

So the total net attributable profit impact of these two items were approximately positive EUR150 million in the bottom line at net attributable profit level, EUR150 million extraordinary impacts. Also on this page, on the right side of the page, you see our CET1 capital ratio, which improved with an exceptional 25 basis points during the quarter, reaching 13.34%. We have very positive news on capital, which I will explain in detail later on.

因此，這兩個項目對淨利潤的影響總計約為1.5億歐元，以淨利潤水準計算，非經常性收入的影響約為1.5億歐元。此外，在本頁面右側，您可以看到我們的普通一級資本比率，該比率在本季度顯著提升了25個基點，達到13.34%。我們在資本方面取得了非常積極的進展，稍後我將詳細解釋。

Elaborate further on profitability on page 5. Our first half profits continue their upward trends on the left-hand side, reaching EUR5.447 billion in 2025. This represents a 9.1% increase year over year, leading to a new record in our semestrial profits.

在第 5 頁進一步闡述獲利能力。左側顯示，我們上半年的利潤持續呈上升趨勢，到 2025 年達到 54.47 億歐元。這比去年同期成長 9.1%，創下我們上半年利潤的新高。

As compared to our peers on the right, our 20.4% ROTE, return on tangible equity, and this then more important to me is the trend, it remains unmatched. With these figures, we are clearly one of the most profitable banks in the industry.

與右邊的同業相比，我們的有形資產回報率（ROTE）高達20.4%，而且對我來說更重要的是，這一趨勢仍然無與倫比。憑藉這些數據，我們無疑是業界獲利能力最強的銀行之一。

Moving to page number 6. This page is a summary of the pages to follow, where I will talk to you about activity, revenue growth, costs, asset quality, capital, and the execution of our strategy. So please allow me to directly move to the next slide, slide number 7.

翻到第6頁。這一頁是對接下來頁面的總結，我將在後面的內容中與大家討論活動、收入成長、成本、資產品質、資本以及我們策略的執行情況。請容許我直接跳到下一張投影片，也就是第7張。

As always, the summarized P&L of the quarter. I would highlight in this page the robust evolution of the core revenues in constant euros with net interest income and fees growing 11% and 18% year over year, respectively, and 4% each quarter-over-quarter as well.

與往常一樣，本季的損益表已匯總。我想在此頁重點介紹核心收入（以歐元不變價計算）的強勁增長，淨利息收入和手續費收入分別同比增長11%和18%，環比增長4%。

Slide number 8, the summarized P&L of the first half. I would once again highlight the positive core revenues and the gross income evolution, which increases in gross income 20% in constant euros year over year. The strong gross income growth, coupled with the positive jaws and the limited growth in the impairments, it led obviously to an outstanding net attributable profit.

投影片8：上半年損益表摘要。我想再次強調核心收入的正面表現以及總收入的演變，以固定歐元計算，總收入年增20%。強勁的總收入成長，加上積極的利潤分配和有限的減損損失成長，顯然帶來了出色的淨利潤。

Some more light into the revenue breakdown on slide number 9. I'm trying to pick up my speed because we have a second chapter to talk to you. So very quickly on this one. What is important to highlight in this page is not the numbers per se, but it is the consistent quarterly improvement in net interest income and net fees and commissions. And despite the macro context and falling interest rates, as we mentioned before, we have managed to grow our core revenues, which is very important to us.

在第9張投影片上，我想進一步解釋一下收入的組成。我盡量加快速度，因為我們還有第二章要講。所以這一章講得很快。這一頁需要重點強調的不是數字本身，而是淨利息收入和淨手續費及佣金收入的持續季度增長。正如我們之前提到的，儘管宏觀環境和利率都在下降，但我們的核心收入仍然實現了成長，這對我們來說非常重要。

The only trend breaking number in the quarter is the net trading income. As mentioned before, this quarter, we have recorded a negative impact from the mark-to-market of FX hedges, in particular related to the US dollar hedges that are in place to manage the CET1 ratio, as I mentioned, and that comes in the holding in the NTI line. And despite all of this, the gross income, it grows 11.7% year over year and 1.7% quarter-over-quarter.

本季唯一打破趨勢的數字是淨交易收入。如前所述，本季我們記錄了外匯對沖的市價效應所帶來的負面影響，尤其是與為管理CET1比率而實施的美元對沖相關的影響，正如我之前提到的，這體現在淨交易收入（NTI）的持有上。儘管如此，總營收年增11.7%，季增1.7%。

Moving to slide number 10. It more focus on activity and loan growth, which has increased at group level to an impressive 16% year over year. This is in and our standard, it's an exceptional growth figure. It's very good news for the coming quarters in my view since we delivered this growth in a profitable manner, measured by return on capital metric on a loan-by-loan basis in every single country, in every single segment.

轉到第10張投影片。它更專注於活動和貸款成長，集團層級的貸款成長年增了16%，令人印象深刻。這符合我們的標準，是一個卓越的成長數字。在我看來，這對未來幾季來說是個非常好的消息，因為我們以獲利的方式實現了這一成長，以每個國家、每個細分市場中每筆貸款的資本回報率指標來衡量。

In Spain, loan growth remained very strong at 6.3% year over year, while Mexico maintained an excellent double-digit loan growth at 11.7% year over year. These numbers will lead us to improve our guidance on activity today for both geographies. Luisa is going to talk to you about it in a second for both countries.

西班牙的貸款年增率保持強勁，達到6.3%，而墨西哥的貸款年增則維持了兩位數的優異成長，達到11.7%。這些數據將促使我們調整今天對這兩個地區的活動預期。 Luisa 稍後會就這兩個國家的情況與您進行討論。

As you know, although we have been proactively managing it, we are still rate sensitive in both Spain and Mexico. And despite the fact that we have seen significant reduction in market rates lately, our robust activity growth more than compensated for spread compression -- as that is the case, we continued expanding our core revenues with 2.2% year over year increase in Spain and 9.6% increase in Mexico. Similarly, we have beaten expectations and managed to grow our core revenues in both countries in the quarter as well.

如您所知，儘管我們一直在積極應對利率波動，但我們在西班牙和墨西哥仍然對利率非常敏感。儘管近期市場利率大幅下降，但我們業務的強勁增長足以彌補利差壓縮的影響——正因如此，我們的核心收入繼續增長，西班牙同比增長2.2%，墨西哥同比增長9.6%。同樣，本季度，我們這兩個國家的核心收入也超出預期，實現了成長。

Slide number 11. On the left-hand side of the slide, we continue showing positive jaws at the group level, thanks to the good performance of gross income, as I mentioned before, growing almost 20% year over year, while costs are growing at 10% below the group's footprint average inflation, as you see on the page. And on the right side of the slide, you can see our efficiency ratio.

投影片編號 11。在投影片左側，我們繼續在集團層面呈現積極的成長勢頭，這得益於我們之前提到的總收入的良好表現，同比增長近 20%，而成本增長率則低於集團碳足跡平均通脹率 10%，正如您在頁面上看到的。在投影片右側，您可以看到我們的效率比率。

It shows an outstanding improvement to 37.6%. If you exclude the VAT related impact, the extraordinary impact that I talked to you on the results page, if you exclude that VAT impact on costs, the efficiency ratio would have been 38.6, still at a record.

這顯示效率比率顯著提升至37.6%。如果剔除增值稅相關影響，也就是我在績效頁面上提到的非同尋常的影響，如果剔除增值稅對成本的影響，效率比率將達到38.6，仍然創下歷史新高。

Slide number 12. This page shows the positive evolution of our asset quality metrics, which are performing better than expectations in a context of strong activity growth, in the context of growth in the most profitable segment. On the left-hand side of the page at the blue, our cost of risk stands at 132 basis points, quite aligned to last quarter and better than, again, our end of year estimate. Meanwhile, on the right bottom, both our NPL and coverage ratios, they remain close to last quarter levels, so stability.

投影片編號 12。本頁展示了我們資產品質指標的正面變化，在業務活動強勁成長、獲利能力最強的板塊成長的背景下，這些指標的表現優於預期。頁面左側藍色區域顯示，我們的風險成本為 132 個基點，與上一季基本持平，並且再次優於我們年底的預期。同時，頁面右下角顯示，我們的不良貸款率和撥備覆蓋率均接近上一季的水平，保持穩定。

Slide number 13. Important page, in my view. On capital, as I mentioned before, we have some amazing news for this quarter and beyond. First, to get a very strong quarter, as we mentioned, increasing our CET1 ratio by 25 basis points to 13.34%. The ratio was helped by some one-offs, which I will explain in a second, but even at the business as usual level, even in the context of record activity growth, we continue to accumulate capital organically.

幻燈片 13。我認為這一頁很重要。關於資本，正如我之前提到的，我們本季及以後有一些好消息。首先，正如我們之前提到的，我們取得了非常強勁的季度業績，將我們的普通一級資本充足率提高了 25 個基點，達到 13.34%。這一比率得益於一些一次性措施，我稍後會解釋。但即使在業務正常化的情況下，即使在創紀錄的經濟活動成長的背景下，我們仍在持續有機地累積資本。

So following the waterfall on the page, main impact of the quarter are results, 69 basis points. Given the accrual and coupons, 37 basis points reduction. Then 41 basis points due to the RWA's growth. This figure reflects our ability, once again, to -- part of our capital generation into profitable growth. And also, this number includes the result of several risk transfer transactions, SRT, we call it, as you know, which positively contributed in this figure, 10 basis points to the ratio in the quarter.

因此，按照頁面上的瀑布圖來看，本季的主要影響是業績，即69個基點。考慮到應計費用和息票，減少了37個基點。然後，由於風險加權資產的成長，又減少了41個基點。這個數字再次反映了我們將部分資本創造轉化為獲利成長的能力。此外，這個數字還包括幾筆風險轉移交易（SRT）的結果，正如您所知，我們稱之為SRT，這對本季度的比率產生了10個基點的積極貢獻。

Then we have a bucket of others, 17 basis points. As always, two things here, the market-related impacts and the credit in OS for hyperinflationary countries. And lastly, in the water, you have a one-off bucket of 70 basis points, which includes two components.

然後我們還有另一桶，17個基點。一如既往，這裡有兩件事：市場相關影響和惡性通膨國家的OS信用。最後，在水中，我們有一個70個基點的一次性桶，其中包含兩個組成部分。

First, we recognized the positive impact related to Basel IV implementation basically after some pending clarifications in certain regulatory, technical standards that were clarified this quarter, okay? Second, in the number, in the one-off, you also have the negative impact of the tax credits, which helps us on P&L, obviously, as we discussed, but which creates a negative impact on capital.

首先，我們認識到巴塞爾協議 IV 實施帶來的正面影響，基本上是在本季對某些監管、技術標準進行了一些待澄清之後，對嗎？其次，從數量上看，一次性稅收抵免也帶來了負面影響，正如我們所討論的，這顯然有助於我們的損益，但也會對資本產生負面影響。

On capital, on this page, I also would like to point your attention to the bubble at the top right-hand corner. And it’s part of our efforts to simplify our IRB regulatory model landscape and in alignment with ECB's simplification drive. We have submitted an exhaustive plan to the supervisor at the beginning of this year around the simplification of our models.

關於資本，在本頁，我還想請大家注意右上角的氣泡。這是我們簡化內部評級法 (IRB) 監管模型環境的努力的一部分，並與歐洲央行的簡化措施保持一致。我們已於今年年初向監管機構提交了一份關於簡化模型的詳盡計劃。

We just received in July the authorization for that work, which will come into effect in the fourth quarter of 2025, also incorporating some pending model review of impacts. We now expect all combined to release an additional 40 to 50 basis points of CET1 in the remainder of 2025. I mean, on this one, from time to time, I talked to you about our RWA densities and mentioned that our RWA density is 50%. And the average RWA density of our peers is 29%. And there are multiple reasons to explain this difference.

我們剛剛在7月獲得了這項工作的授權，該授權將於2025年第四季生效，其中還包含一些待完成的影響模型審查。我們目前預計，在2025年剩餘時間內，所有項目將額外釋放40至50個基點的普通股一級資本淨額。關於這一點，我時不時地和大家討論我們的風險加權資產密度，並提到我們的風險加權資產密度是50%。而我們同業的平均風險加權資產密度是29%。有多個原因可以解釋這種差異。

But after the implementation of Basel IV through the use of SRTs, which would benefit BBVA much more than our peers, and through the simplification of our IRB model landscape that we just talked about, we expect this RWA density gap with our competitors to reduce going forward.

但在透過使用 SRT 實施巴塞爾協議 IV 之後，BBVA 的受益將遠遠超過我們的同行，並且透過簡化我們剛才談到的 IRB 模型環境，我們預計與競爭對手的 RWA 密度差距將會縮小。

And it's also worth to highlight that this IRB model simplification and so on, the reduced risk weights would not only create obviously a positive one-off impact, as you saw on the page. But also it's very important, it will help us on a continuous basis for the new loan origination.

值得強調的是，內部評級法（IRB）模型的簡化以及風險權重的降低，不僅會產生明顯的一次性正面影響（正如您在頁面上看到的），而且非常重要的是，它將持續幫助我們發放新的貸款。

Moving to page number 4 and our strategic progress, new customer acquisition on the pay -- on this page, let me pick up speed, so 5.7 million new customer, record digital competitive advantage for BBVA.

轉到第 4 頁，我們的策略進展，付費新客戶的獲取——在這一頁，讓我加快速度，570 萬新客戶，為 BBVA 創下了數位競爭優勢。

Slide number 15, another pillar of our growth strategy, sustainability, another record EUR63 billion of sustainable finance channeling in the first six months of the year. We are clearly on our path to channel EUR700 billion in sustainable finance until 2029. So all good.

第15張投影片展示了我們成長策略的另一個支柱—永續性。今年上半年，我們永續融資的流入量再創紀錄，達到630億歐元。我們顯然正朝著2029年實現7,000億歐元永續融資的目標邁進。一切都很好。

For the business areas, Luisa.

對於商業領域，Luisa。

Thank you very much, Onur, and good morning, everyone. Starting with Spain, and on slide 17, it has continued its impressive momentum in the second quarter, delivering outstanding results in the first half of the year. Net profit reached EUR1.1 billion in the quarter, supported by ongoing cost dynamics in NII, even in a lower rate environment, sound fees and lower operating expenses.

非常感謝Onur，大家早安。首先從西班牙開始，也就是第17張幻燈片，西班牙銀行在第二季度延續了令人印象深刻的勢頭，在上半年取得了出色的業績。本季淨利達到11億歐元，這得益於NII持續的成本動態，即使在較低的利率環境下，合理的費用以及較低的營運費用也起到了支撐作用。

NII continued to grow by 1% quarter on quarter, even in the context of declining rates. This was mainly supported by strong loan growth, up to 2% quarter on quarter, particularly in consumer lending and SMEs, the areas that we've been focusing on in the past as well. We also benefited from an improved deposit mix and a higher contribution from the ALCO portfolio.

即使在利率下降的背景下，淨利息收入（NII）仍較上季成長1%。這主要得益於強勁的貸款成長，季增高達2%，尤其是在消費貸款和中小企業領域，而這些領域也是我們過去一直關注的。此外，存款結構改善以及ALCO投資組合貢獻率上升也為我們帶來了收益。

On expenses, as Onur mentioned, we had a positive one-off impact coming from the revision of our VAT payment calculations. Excluding this effect, expenses remained well contained, growing by just 1.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year.

關於支出，正如Onur所提到的，增值稅納稅計算方法的修訂給我們帶來了一次性的正面影響。剔除此影響，支出仍保持良好控制，上半年年比僅成長1.3%。

Efficiency continued to improve, supported by sound gross income growth and lower cost. Our cost-to-income ratio stands at 31.3% in the first half of the year or 33% if we exclude the above-mentioned one-offs. Risk metrics also remained solid. Cost of risk came in at 32 basis points for the first half, better than expected.

在穩健的總收入成長和成本下降的支撐下，效率持續提升。上半年我們的成本收入比為31.3%，若扣除上述一次性費用則為33%。風險指標也保持穩健。上半年風險成本為32個基點，優於預期。

Finally, given the very strong results and positive future projections of the Spanish business unit, we have activated some DTAs, some deferred tax assets this quarter. It is worth highlighting that the Spanish business unit delivers in line with our expectations in the coming years, more DTA activations can be executed beyond this year.

最後，鑑於西班牙業務部門強勁的業績和積極的未來預測，我們本季已啟動部分DTA和遞延所得稅資產。值得強調的是，西班牙業務部門未來幾年的業績符合我們的預期，今年之後可望啟動更多DTA。

Based on this solid performance, we are pleased to announce that we are improving our full year guidance across all key lines. We now expect loan growth to accelerate to mid-single digit, NII to show slight growth, fees to increase by low to mid-single digits and expenses to decline by low single digits. As a result, we are targeting a 33% cost-to-income ratio for the full year.

基於這項穩健的業績，我們欣然宣布，我們將上調所有關鍵業務線的全年業績指引。我們目前預期貸款成長將加速至中個位數，淨利息收入（NII）將略有成長，費用將成長低至中個位數，支出將降低個位數。因此，我們設定全年成本收入比目標為33%。

On the asset quality side, we expect cumulative cost of risk to remain below 35 basis points for the year. In conclusion, an exceptional performance of BBVA Spain in the first half of this year.

資產品質方面，我們預期今年累計風險成本將維持在35個基點以下。總而言之，西班牙對外銀行西班牙分行今年上半年表現優異。

Moving on now to Mexico on slide 18. Once again, BBVA Mexico delivered also a strong set of results in a still uncertain macro environment. Net profit reached nearly EUR1.3 billion, supported by a solid operating income growth of over 2% quarter on quarter, driven by NII growing by more than 2% quarter-over-quarter, primarily supported by strong lending activity across both retail and commercial segments.

現在就來看第18張投影片上的墨西哥。在依然不確定的宏觀環境下，BBVA墨西哥銀行再次取得了強勁的業績。淨利潤達到近13億歐元，這得益於營業收入環比增長超過2%的強勁增長，而這主要得益於零售和商業領域強勁的貸款活動，淨利息收入環比增長超過2%。

In addition to the solid lending momentum, we also observed more favorable deposit trends with an improved deposit mix and lower deposit costs, which further contributed to the positive NII performance this quarter. The customer spread remained stable, which is particularly noteworthy in a declining interest rate environment. Recall the Banxico cut rates by 200 basis point since the beginning of the year.

除了穩健的貸款成長動能外，我們還觀察到存款趨勢更加良好，存款結構得到改善，存款成本下降，這進一步推動了本季度NII的正面表現。客戶利差保持穩定，這在利率下降的環境下尤其顯著。回想一下，墨西哥央行自年初以來已將利率下調了200個基點。

On the cost front, we recorded a slight quarterly decrease, reflecting the early impact of efficiency initiatives launched earlier this year. All in, our efficiency ratio remains at an exceptional 30.6%. On the asset quality side, we saw an increase in impairments this quarter, mainly driven by the IFRS 9 macro adjustment following the updated macroeconomic scenario. That said, underlying trends remained solid with cost of risk standing at 324 basis point for the first half of the year.

在成本方面，我們錄得季度小幅下降，這反映了今年早些時候推出的效率舉措的早期影響。整體而言，我們的效率比率維持在30.6%的優異水準。在資產品質方面，本季減損準備增加，這主要是由於根據最新的宏觀經濟情境進行的IFRS 9宏觀調整。即便如此，基本趨勢依然穩健，上半年風險成本維持在324個基點。

All in all, the solid dynamics observed so far in BBVA Mexico have led us to revise the full year guidance upwards for both activity growth and cost of risk. We now expect loan growth to be close to 10% by year-end and cost of risk has come below 350 basis points.

總而言之，迄今為止，BBVA墨西哥業務的穩健成長勢頭促使我們上調了全年業務成長和風險成本的預期。我們目前預計，到年底貸款成長率將接近10%，風險成本已降至350個基點以下。

Moving now to Turkey on slide 19. Garanti BBVA reported a net profit of EUR412 million, increasing by more than 17% year over year. This solid performance was driven by higher core revenues and lower impact from the hyperinflationary readjustment, which more than offset the expected increase in impairments.

現在來看第19張幻燈片上的土耳其。 Garanti BBVA報告其淨利潤為4.12億歐元，年成長超過17%。這一穩健業績得益於核心收入的成長以及惡性通膨調整的影響降低，這些因素抵消了預期的減損損失增加。

NII growth was strongly driven by a significant improvement in the Turkish lira customer spread, up by more than 150 basis points in the first half of the year as compared to the same period in 2024. This was driven by both higher yield on loans and lower deposit costs. At the same time, loan growth continued across both Turkish lira and foreign currency portfolios.

土耳其里拉客戶利差顯著改善，有力推動了國民保險資訊收入 (NII) 的成長。與 2024 年同期相比，今年上半年利差上漲了 150 多個基點。這得益於貸款收益率上升和存款成本下降。同時，土耳其里拉和外幣投資組合的貸款均持續成長。

Fees remain a strong contributor to revenue growth, driven by higher commissions from payment systems as well as positive performance in both asset management and the insurance businesses. The impact of hyperinflation continued to decline in line with the continued disinflationary trend in the country.

手續費收入仍然是收入成長的重要貢獻因素，這得益於支付系統佣金的增加以及資產管理和保險業務的良好表現。隨著國內持續的通貨緊縮趨勢，惡性通膨的影響持續下降。

Impairments increased year-on-year, reflecting a normalization of the cost of risk amid the ongoing macro rebalancing. For the first half of the year, the cumulative cost of risk stands at 164 basis points ahead of expectations. Going forward, we expect it to close at around 180 basis points, as provisioning needs in the retail portfolios remain high.

減損損失年增率，反映出在持續的宏觀經濟再平衡背景下風險成本的正常化。上半年累計風險成本比預期高出164個基點。展望未來，我們預計該水準將收於180個基點左右，因為零售投資組合的撥備需求仍然很高。

All in all, positive underlying trends, combined with the resumption of the monitoring easing cycle by the CBRT reinforce our confidence in the full year net profit guidance, which we expect to close somewhat below EUR1 billion in 2025. Let me remind you that Garanti BBVA's balance sheet shows negative sensitivity to lower rates.

總而言之，積極的潛在趨勢，加上央行恢復監控寬鬆週期，增強了我們對全年淨利潤指引的信心，我們預計 2025 年全年淨利潤將略低於 10 億歐元。需要提醒您的是，Garanti BBVA 的資產負債表對較低利率表現出負面敏感性。

And finally, let's turn to South America. The region continued to deliver a strong earnings contribution to the group, achieving a net profit of EUR421 million in the first half of the year, representing a 33% year on year increase. This quarter's solid performance across geographies was further supported by sound lending trends and improved deposit mix and disciplined price management. Despite a lower interest environment, it is noteworthy that the customer spread improved in the quarter in Colombia, while it remains stable in Peru.

最後，讓我們來看看南美洲地區。該地區持續為集團帶來強勁的獲利貢獻，上半年淨利4.21億歐元，較去年同期成長33%。良好的貸款趨勢、改善的存款結構以及嚴格的價格管理進一步支撐了本季各地區穩健的表現。儘管利率環境較低，但值得注意的是，哥倫比亞的客戶利差在本季有所改善，而秘魯的客戶利差則保持穩定。

On the asset quality side, the cost of risk remains well under control in both Peru and Colombia, reflecting improving asset quality trends within what we had anticipated, supported by a more favorable economic environment and the adjustment to our risk appetite in the most vulnerable retail portfolios. These positive dynamics and the risk metrics have led us to review downwards our full year cost of risk guidance for the region, which we now expect to stand below 150 basis points.

在資產品質方面，秘魯和哥倫比亞的風險成本均保持良好可控，反映出資產品質趨勢在我們預期範圍內改善，這得益於更有利的經濟環境以及我們對最脆弱零售投資組合風險偏好的調整。這些積極的動態和風險指標促使我們下調了該地區全年風險成本預期，目前我們預計將低於150個基點。

Finally, in Argentina, we continue to observe a reduced impact on the hyperinflation adjustment, driven by easing inflationary pressures. And now back to Onur for the final remarks in the quarter.

最後，在阿根廷，我們繼續觀察到惡性通膨調整的影響減弱，這得益於通膨壓力的緩解。現在請奧努爾就本季做最後的總結。

Thank you. Thank you, Luisa. So regarding 2025 and the guidance on this page number 21, you have the full list of metrics, we have provided you guidance for the beginning of the year. And as Luisa has just explained, today, we are upgrading our guidance for the full year in the majority of the metrics, as you can see on the page, including the group metrics.

謝謝。謝謝路易莎。關於2025年，以及第21頁的指引，您已經查看了完整的指標列表，我們已經提供了年初的指引。正如路易莎剛才解釋的那樣，今天，我們將上調全年大部分指標的指引，包括集團指標，正如您在頁面上看到的。

And you also see at the bottom of the page, it's worth highlighting here that including the nearly EUR1 billion of share buyback pending to be executed, potentially, more than EUR5 billion as regular payout from 2025 results. And given the expected end of year 2025 excess capital to be accumulated in total, around EUR13 billion are expected to be available for distribution in the short term.

您還可以在頁面底部看到，值得一提的是，包括即將執行的近10億歐元股票回購，2025年業績中可能將有超過50億歐元的定期股息。考慮到預計2025年底將累積的過剩資本，預計短期內可供分配的資金約為130億歐元。

And lastly, for the main takeaways of the quarterly results, we are all excited to go to the second chapter. So I'm not to take time repeating the key messages here. But in short, we are very happy, very happy with the performance in the quarter.

最後，關於季度業績的主要內容，我們都很期待進入第二篇章。所以我就不在這裡重複關鍵訊息了。總而言之，我們對本季的表現非常非常滿意。

Now the second chapter in the document is about medium-term strategic objectives. As you know, at last, the final meters of the voluntary tender offer process with Banco Sabadell, such for investors to better understand BBVA's intrinsic is standalone value, we want to disclose our objectives for 2025, 2028 associated with the strategic plan that we have launched at the beginning of this year.

現在，文件的第二章是關於中期戰略目標的。如大家所知，與薩瓦德爾銀行的自願要約收購程序已進入最後階段，為了讓投資者更了解西班牙對外銀行的內在獨立價值，我們希望揭露與今年年初發布的戰略規劃相關的2025年和2028年目標。

We'll try to be brief on the next pages, but as I'm sure you have already reviewed the messages and the figures and very eager to move to the Q&A. So on page number 24, we open the page also. As you know, again, we communicated our new strategic priorities that will help us strengthen our leadership position in the coming years. But a quickly recap on this page of the strategic levers.

接下來的幾頁我們會盡量簡短，但我相信各位已經看過了這些資訊和數據，並且非常渴望進入問答環節。因此，我們也在第24頁開啟了這一頁。正如各位所知，我們再次傳達了新的策略重點，這將有助於我們在未來幾年鞏固領導地位。不過，我們還是在這一頁快速回顧一下戰略槓桿。

First strategic priority is to embed radical client perspective in all we do. We want to set an industry-leading customer service and satisfaction standards and deliver every day in and out against this golden standard.

首要策略重點是將徹底的客戶視角融入我們所做的一切工作中。我們希望樹立業界領先的客戶服務和滿意度標準，並在日常工作中始終秉持此黃金標準。

Our second and third priority, they refer to our growth levers with sustainability and enterprises, having a prominent position in this growth drive, we will invest more and increase the value contribution coming from these areas of sustainability and enterprises.

我們的第二和第三個優先事項是指我們的永續發展和企業成長槓桿，在這一成長動力中佔據突出地位，我們將加大投資，增加來自永續發展和企業領域的價值貢獻。

Fourth, our value and capital creation mindset, this priority reflects very clearly that the capital is our cost resource, and we are here to deliver about the cost of that capital at the macro and at the micro; level as well for every single loan that we gave. Lastly, our fifth and sixth priorities, our enablers. We will unlock the strong potential of AI and innovation, and we will continue to invest in our teams who are the real actors to achieve anything in our business.

第四，我們的價值和資本創造理念。這項優先事項清楚地體現了資本是我們的成本資源，我們致力於在宏觀和微觀層面，以及我們發放的每一筆貸款中，實現資本成本的合理化。最後，我們的第五和第六個優先事項是我們的賦能因素。我們將釋放人工智慧和創新的巨大潛力，並將繼續投資於我們的團隊，他們是推動我們業務實現任何目標的真正力量。

Moving to page number 25. Before explaining the main figures of our strategic plan, in this page, we include the main macro assumptions underlying the figures. So from a global perspective, in short, we expect relative stability around economic growth and inflation. Nominal credit growth is expected to stay slightly above GDP growth.

翻到第25頁。在解釋我們戰略計劃的主要數據之前，我們先在此頁列出這些數字背後的主要宏觀假設。簡而言之，從全球角度來看，我們預期經濟成長和通膨將相對穩定。名目信貸成長預計將略高於GDP成長。

In lower-inflation geographies like in Spain, Mexico, Peru, we expect interest rates to reach bottom in 2025 or 2026. We also expect depreciation of currencies to moderate a bit in alignment with inflation directly correlated with inflation.

在西班牙、墨西哥、秘魯等通膨較低的地區，我們預期利率將在 2025 年或 2026 年觸底。我們也預期貨幣貶值將隨著與通貨膨脹直接相關的通貨膨脹而略有緩和。

On top of this, in Spain, economic growth, it comes down slightly in the period but remains sound, leading to solid activity growth as well. In Mexico, annual GDP growth, our expectation at the end of June was a reduction, was a decline in Mexico in 2025. With yesterday's numbers, now this can change, but it was a negative figure in our forecast. In this plan, we are expecting it to recover but still staying below 2% growth every year in 2026 to 2028.

此外，西班牙的經濟成長在此期間略有下降，但依然穩健，也帶來了穩健的經濟活動成長。墨西哥的年度GDP成長率，我們在6月底的預測是下降，到2025年將出現下降。根據昨天公佈的數據，現在情況可能會有所變化，但我們的預測是負數。在本計畫中，我們預期墨西哥的GDP成長率將在2026年至2028年期間回升，但每年仍將維持在2%以下。

And finally, in Turkey and Argentina, we estimate a gradual decline of inflation and interest rates throughout the period, and both are expected to exhibit hyperinflationary accounting in 2028. The highlights are in this page, but I do think they are very important pages. In the appendix of this document, you have the full details of these macro assumptions per country. So you can find them in the appendix of the document.

最後，我們估計土耳其和阿根廷的通膨率和利率將在整個時期逐漸下降，預計這兩個國家將在2028年出現惡性通膨核算。重點內容在本頁，但我認為這些頁面非常重要。本文檔的附錄提供了每個國家/地區宏觀假設的完整詳細資訊。您可以在文件的附錄中找到它們。

On page 26, what should be highlighted in this new strategic cycle? Or maybe set in a different manner, what are the implications or the qualitative goals of the plan? First, we plan to grow slightly above market, gaining market share by continuing to increase our customer base, with a particular focus on the enterprise segment, as we discussed before. I believe in terms of market share gains and so on. We have proven our worth here over and over again every quarter.

在第26頁，新的戰略週期該強調什麼？或者換一種說法，該計劃的含義或定性目標是什麼？首先，我們計劃略高於市場成長，透過繼續擴大客戶群來提升市場份額，尤其要關注企業客戶，正如我們之前討論過的。我相信市場佔有率的成長等等。我們每個季度都一次又一次地證明了我們的價值。

And the record customer acquisition we have seen in the past few years and also in this presentation today, those customers that we acquired recently, it will ensure the continuity of the market share gain going forward.

我們在過去幾年中看到的創紀錄的客戶獲取量以及今天的演示中我們最近獲取的那些客戶，將確保未來市場份額的持續增長。

Second, we expect our core countries to improve their already high profitability levels, slightly but still improving, helped by strong activity growth and slightly lower cost of risk. It is very important to underscore here the dynamic. The expected dynamics, very important. That's one of the crucial points of this plan.

其次，我們預期核心國家將進一步提升其本已較高的獲利水平，雖然略有改善，但仍在持續，這得益於強勁的經濟活動成長和略低的風險成本。強調這一動態非常重要。預期的動態非常重要。這是本計劃的關鍵點之一。

In the past few quarters, all the activity growth we have realized was basically absorbing the spread compression happening due to decline in rates. As we mentioned in the previous page, we expect some rate stability in the coming years. With that rate stability, our expectation is that margin compression will stop. And as a result, activity growth will flow naturally to the bottom line profits.

過去幾個季度，我們實現的所有業務成長基本上都是為了吸收利率下降帶來的利差壓縮。正如我們在上一頁提到的，我們預計未來幾年利率將保持穩定。隨著利率穩定，我們預期利潤率壓縮將會停止。因此，業務成長將自然而然地轉化為利潤。

Third, on this page, regarding the countries under hyperinflation in our footprint, namely Turkey and Argentina, we expect them to improve, especially in the second part of the cycle.

第三，在此頁面上，關於我們所關注的處於惡性通貨膨脹中的國家，即土耳其和阿根廷，我們預計它們的情況會有所改善，特別是在周期的第二部分。

Fourth, the contribution from enterprise and CIB segments, it will be significantly larger during this period, as we will focus on leveraging cross-borders, leveraging sustainability, where we clearly do have a competitive advantage. For example, in this plan, we are expecting to double our gross income coming from CIB until 2028.

第四，企業和商業銀行業務的貢獻在此期間將顯著增加，因為我們將專注於利用跨國業務和永續性，而這些領域我們顯然具有競爭優勢。例如，在該計劃中，我們預計到2028年，來自商業銀行業務的總收入將翻倍。

And fifth, we will focus even more on fee-generating businesses with low capital consumption, especially insurance, asset management and transactional products.

第五，我們將更重視收費業務和低資本消耗業務，特別是保險、資產管理和交易產品。

Lastly, as described on the bottom of the page, we will be actively rotating our balance sheet to boost value creation. And we will be seizing opportunities presented by new technologies, AI to gain a competitive edge and also to improve productivity. And our focus on costs and efficiency will be maintained in full force in this new strategic cycle.

最後，如本頁底部所述，我們將積極調整資產負債表，以促進價值創造。我們將抓住新科技、人工智慧帶來的機遇，增強競爭優勢，並提高生產力。在新的策略週期中，我們將全力以赴地專注於成本和效率。

With all of this, page number 27, my favorite page, our goals for the 2025, 2028 period at the group level, we expect return on tangible equity to be around 22% on average in the 2025, 2028 period average ROTE. Tangible book value growth, including dividends to be at mid-teens compounded annual growth rate. Efficiency ratio to further improve and be around 35% in 2028. And the cumulative net attributable profit of EUR48 million in this four-year period.

綜上所述，我最喜歡的第27頁，我們集團層級2025年和2028年的目標如下：我們預計2025年和2028年期間的有形資產回報率（ROTE）平均約為22%。包括股息在內的有形帳面價值成長將達到15%左右的複合年增長率。效率比率將進一步提高，2028年將達到35%左右。這四年累計淨利將達4,800萬歐元。

On the details of -- around the countries, Luisa,, can you help us on the page on the countries?

關於各個國家的詳細信息，路易莎，您能幫助我們了解各個國家的頁面嗎？

Yes. Thank you, Onur. On page 28, bear with me. I know there's a lot of information on this slide, but I'll try and go through it as fast as possible. Starting with Spain, we see sustained momentum in client activity.

是的。謝謝，Onur。請耐心看完第28頁。我知道這張投影片資訊量很大，但我會盡量快速瀏覽一遍。從西班牙開始，我們看到客戶活動持續成長。

Loans are expected to grow at mid-single digit annual growth rate through 2028. Growth will be selectively focused on the highest risk-adjusted return segments, commercial and consumer, as you've heard me mention before, where we also anticipate measurable market share gains.

預計到 2028 年，貸款年增率將達到中等個位數。正如您之前聽到我提到的，成長將有選擇地集中在風險調整後回報率最高的領域，即商業和消費者領域，我們預計這些領域的市場份額也將顯著增長。

This surge in lending activity will support our net interest income expansion, with spreads expected to remain almost flat during the period. Beyond this, and consistent with our strategic plan, we aim to -- the contribution of fee-generating businesses, such as asset management and insurance. Therefore, we expect total revenues in Spain to increase by low to mid-single digits on CAGR.

貸款活動的激增將支持我們的淨利息收入成長，預計在此期間利差將基本持平。除此之外，根據我們的策略計劃，我們的目標是－增加資產管理和保險等收費業務的貢獻。因此，我們預期西班牙的總收入複合年增長率將達到低至中等個位數。

On costs, strict discipline, and productivity gains from AI crystallizing at the latter part of the period will lead our cost-to-income ratio to remain at low 30s by 2028. Coupled with an average cost of risk of around 30 basis points, this translates into an expected return on risk-weighted assets approaching 4% by 2028 versus 3.56% in the first half of '25.

在成本方面，嚴格的紀律以及後期人工智慧帶來的生產力提升將使我們的成本收入比到 2028 年保持在 30% 的低點。再加上平均風險成本約為 30 個基點，這意味著風險加權資產的預期回報率到 2028 年將接近 4%，而 2025 年上半年為 3.56%。

In Mexico, in the context of low GDP growth, we forecast high single-digit annual growth in lending volumes, levered on increasing banking penetration, again, led by the consumer and commercial books. As in Spain, this activity growth will be a key lever behind our NII growth. This, together with the improved performance of our capital-light businesses and particularly insurance in the case of Mexico, will drive an annual revenue growth of high single digit over the period.

在墨西哥，在GDP低成長的背景下，我們預測貸款額將實現高個位數年增長率，這得益於銀行滲透率的提高，而銀行滲透率的提高同樣以消費者和商業帳戶為主導。與西班牙一樣，這類業務的成長將成為我們國民保險費（NII）成長的關鍵槓桿。此外，加上我們輕資本業務（尤其是墨西哥的保險業務）的業績改善，將推動本季年收入實現高個位數成長。

Operational excellence remains a priority. We expect our efficiency ratio to remain around 30% in '28, reflecting good cost control while continuing investing in the country. Meanwhile, an average cost of risk of 330 basis points will also support a robust RoRWA of roughly 6.5% in 2028 versus 5.87% in the first half of '25.

卓越營運仍是我們的首要任務。我們預計2028年的效率比率將維持在30%左右，這反映了我們在持續投資於該國市場的同時，良好的成本控制。同時，330個基點的平均風險成本也將支撐我們在2028年實現約6.5%的穩健風險加權資產收益率（RoRWA），而2025年上半年為5.87%。

The Turkish franchise is expected to continue with its recovery path. Net interest income is expected to strengthen driven by an above inflation activity growth and spread expansion due to a lower cost of deposits as interest rates decreased. In 2028, as Onur has mentioned, Turkey is expected to exit hyperinflationary accounting, losing revenues, which are expected to grow at high teens through '28 in current euros.

土耳其業務預計將持續復甦。受高於通膨水準的活動成長以及利率下降導致存款成本下降導致利差擴大的推動，淨利息收入預計將有所增長。正如Onur所提到的，土耳其預計將在2028年擺脫惡性通貨膨脹的會計模式，從而導致收入損失。預計到2028年，土耳其的收入將以當前歐元匯率計算，以10%左右的速度成長。

This revenue expansion, together with the declining inflation, will drive our efficiency ratio down to the low 30s in 2028. All this, together with an average cost of risk of around 200 basis points, will significantly improve Turkey's profitability from a return on risk-weighted assets of 1.60% now to a return on risk-weighted assets of above 3.5% by 2028.

收入的成長，加上通貨膨脹的下降，將使我們的效率比率在 2028 年降至 30% 以下。所有這些，加上約 200 個基點的平均風險成本，將顯著提高土耳其的盈利能力，從現在的風險加權資產回報率 1.60% 提高到 2028 年的風險加權資產回報率 3.5% 以上。

Across South America, we expect a favorable operating environment with revenues growing at high single digit in current euros, boosted by a sound activity growth, including market share gains and Argentina exiting hyperinflation also in 2028. In a lower inflation environment, the efficiency ratio will improve to below 40% in 2028. We expect an average cost of risk of around 230 basis points, resulting in a return on risk-weighted assets of around 3% in 2028. In summary, profitability is expected to increase in LatAm and particularly in Argentina as macro conditions normalize.

在整個南美洲，我們預計經營環境良好，收入將以當前歐元計算實現高個位數增長，這得益於良好的業務增長，包括市場份額增加以及阿根廷在 2028 年擺脫惡性通貨膨脹。在較低的通膨環境下，效率比率將在 2028 年提高到 40% 以下。我們預期平均風險成本約為 230 個基點，導致 2028 年風險加權資產的報酬率約為 3%。總之，隨著宏觀經濟條件正常化，拉丁美洲，尤其是阿根廷的獲利能力預計將提高。

As for rest of business, let me remind you that this area includes the CAD business in the US, Europe, and Asia as well as the digital banks in Europe, Italy, and Germany. For this area, prospects are also very positive, driven by our CIB operations, which is one of our key priorities in the new strategic plan.

至於其他業務，我想提醒大家的是，該領域包括美國、歐洲和亞洲的CAD業務，以及歐洲、義大利和德國的數位銀行。受CIB業務的推動，該領域的前景也非常樂觀，而CIB業務是我們新策略規劃中的重點業務之一。

We project a compound annual growth rate in the high teens and a revenue growth of close to 20% through 2028, driven by fees and NTI, making it a significant growth engine for the group. Efficiency will improve with the cost-to-income ratio under 50% by 2028 but still impacted by the OpEx related to the strategic wealth plans.

我們預計，到2028年，集團的複合年增長率將達到15%左右，營收成長率將接近20%，這主要得益於費用和淨收入（NTI），使其成為集團重要的成長引擎。 2028年，集團的效率將會提升，成本收入比將低於50%，但仍將受到策略性財富計畫相關營運支出的影響。

Cost of risk is expected to remain at low levels, around 20 basis points. All this supports an expected profitability improvement with a return on risk-weighted assets of about 2% versus 1.62% now. Overall, all the units are positioned to deliver sustainable capital generated growth, while maintaining best-in-class cost and risk discipline through the plan, leading to an improved profitability of all the units.

風險成本預計將維持在低水平，約20個基點。所有這些都支持獲利能力的預期提升，風險加權資產回報率約為2%，而目前為1.62%。總體而言，所有部門都有望實現可持續的資本增長，同時透過該計劃保持一流的成本和風險管控，從而提高所有部門的盈利能力。

Thank you, Luisa. On the country, so on page 29 and the final page, the most important page in my view, so I change my favorite to this one, I want to shed light on the generation and uses of our CET1 capital.

謝謝你，路易莎。關於國家，也就是第29頁，也就是最後一頁，在我看來是最重要的一頁，所以我把我最喜歡的一頁改成了這一頁，我想闡明我們CET1資本的產生和用途。

So during this 2025, 2028 period and including our excess capital at the beginning of the period, we believe we would be able to make available EUR49 billion of core capital. Although, we expect to reinvest EUR13 billion in the business, growing our business in a profitable way, leaving EUR36 million available for distributions. This amount, the EUR36 billion is, in our view, the key anchor of our strategic plan.

因此，在2025年至2028年期間，包括期初的剩餘資本，我們相信我們將能夠提供490億歐元的核心資本。儘管如此，我們預計將再投資130億歐元用於業務，以盈利的方式發展業務，並留下3600萬歐元可用於分配。我們認為，這360億歐元是我們策略計畫的關鍵支柱。

The EUR36 billion of capital available for distribution will obviously our payout policy. And as a result, maximum EUR24 billion will be distributed to shareholders through our maximum 50% regular payout, basically 50% of the EUR48 billion that we are putting as a net attributable profit goal. Then this leaves the remainder amount, EUR12 billion, as excess capital that can complement the distributions.

可供分配的360億歐元資本顯然將用於我們的派息政策。因此，最多240億歐元將透過我們最高50%的定期派息分配給股東，這基本上相當於我們設定的480億歐元淨利潤目標的50%。剩餘的120億歐元將作為剩餘資本，用於補充分配。

So in short, actually, we are two minutes late than our regular commitment that we will finish by the hour, but I think it was justified. But in short, in short, we are very positive for our present and for our future. We believe we are uniquely positioned as a bank who delivers exceptional growth and exceptional profitability at the same time.

所以簡而言之，實際上，我們比通常承諾的時間完成的時間晚了兩分鐘，但我認為這是合理的。總而言之，我們對現在和未來都非常樂觀。我們相信，作為一家能夠同時實現卓越成長和卓越獲利能力的銀行，我們擁有獨特的優勢。

As such, we are relatively unique in the European banking landscape, combining these two things. And as a result, we have been delivering consistently above our goals of the previous strategic plan, and we are determined and confident that we will do that again in this new strategic cycle.

因此，我們在歐洲銀行業中相對獨特，將這兩點完美結合。正因如此，我們始終如一地超越了上一戰略規劃的目標，我們有決心也有信心在新的戰略週期中再次實現這一目標。

And now back to Patricia for the Q&A. Patricia?

現在回到帕特里夏的問答環節。帕特里夏？

Yes. Thank you. Thank you very much, Onur. We are ready now for the Q&A. So operator, please, the first question.

是的，謝謝。非常感謝，Onur。現在我們準備好進行問答環節了。請接線生提問第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Benjamin Toms, RBC.

（操作員指示） Benjamin Toms，RBC。

You set out your strategic objectives on slide 20 and 29. And clearly, the message here is about growth, best-in-class sustainable returns, and that leads to outsized shareholder distributions. But what would your RoTE and CET1 available for distribution look like using current forward FX rates rather than using a constant currency basis? Because I think that will be an important driver of the delta between your objectives and what sits in most analyst model.

您在第20張和第29張投影片上列出了您的策略目標。顯然，這裡傳達的訊息是關於成長、一流的可持續回報，以及這將帶來豐厚的股東分配。但是，如果使用目前的遠期外匯匯率，而不是固定匯率制，您的RoTE和可供分配的CET1會是什麼樣子呢？因為我認為這將是您的目標與大多數分析師模型中的結果之間差異的一個重要驅動因素。

And secondly, in relation to the 40 to 50 basis points benefit from capital from the simplification models, any color -- additional color would be useful? And can you clarify, has the regulator already signed off on this number? Or could they revise it down? I just had the feeling we being a bit too good to be true at the moment.

其次，關於簡化模型帶來的40到50個基點的資本收益，任何細節——額外的細節都會有用嗎？您能否澄清一下，監管機構已經批准了這個數字嗎？或者他們可能會下調這個數字嗎？我只是覺得我們現在的情況有點好得令人難以置信。

Very good. Thank you, Benjamin. On the first question, we are actually using forward rates in every single country, except for Turkey, because in the case of Turkey, the forward rate for the next five years, they are not really readily available. Turkey is a relatively complicated country. As such, as such, that's why I pointed you to the appendix of this presentation, you will see every single country, the depreciation of the currencies.

非常好。謝謝你，班傑明。關於第一個問題，我們實際上在每個國家都使用了遠期利率，除了土耳其，因為就土耳其而言，未來五年的遠期利率並不容易獲得。土耳其是一個相對複雜的國家。因此，我建議你參考這份簡報的附錄，你會看到每個國家貨幣的貶值情況。

You will see that in every single country, we are following the forward. In the case of Turkey, given the uncertainty, we actually put a range, a range of different depreciations, one, quite aggressive. And what we are seeing is even in that aggressive depreciation scenario, these are the numbers we commit. But I encourage you to look into the appendix basically.

你會發現，在每個國家，我們都在關注未來。就土耳其而言，考慮到不確定性，我們實際上設定了一個範圍，一系列不同的貶值幅度，其中一個相當激進。我們看到的是，即使在這種激進的貶值情境下，這些也是我們承諾的數字。但我鼓勵你看一下附錄。

I would add, Onur, that Argentina as well, it doesn't have forwards because the hyper countries. And there, you know that we've always been using our research estimates, which include a quite strong depreciation as if it's appointed in the annex as well as the presentation.

我想補充一下，奧努爾，阿根廷也沒有遠期匯率，因為其他國家都是超額利率國家。您知道，我們一直在使用我們的研究估算，其中包括相當強勁的貶值，就像附件和簡報中提到的那樣。

Very good. 40, 50 basis points, more color on this one? And can it be reversed? You are saying if it could have been reversed, we wouldn't have put it in the presentation, Benjamin. It's a clear written formal approval coming from ECB. But more color on this.

很好。 40、50個基點，這事兒說得更詳細吧？能逆轉嗎？班傑明，你是說如果能逆轉的話，我們就不會把它寫進報告裡了。這是歐洲央行明確的書面正式批准。不過，這事兒說得更詳細。

Again, I mentioned it before, our RWA density at the end of the second quarter was 50% when the average of the European peers is 29%. There is a reason for this. We have different portfolios in different geographies and so on. And some of them were in advanced model, and they were actually producing -- they were producing higher risk WAs than otherwise.

我之前也提到過，我們第二季末的風險加權資產密度為50%，而歐洲同業的平均為29%。這是有原因的。我們在不同的地區有不同的投資組合等等。其中一些投資組合採用的是高級模型，它們實際上產生了——它們產生的風險加權資產密度比其他投資組合更高。

So in -- specifically, let me be more specific on this, in two-- it was an exhaustive work of going through every single model that we have and the dialogue with the supervisor on this. And in two areas, we have received approval basically to simplify. One of them is Mexico credit cards. So we're going to go back to standard rather than having an advanced model on Mexico credit cards. And the second one is basically the wholesale portfolios in Spain and Mexico.

具體來說，讓我更具體一點，在兩個方面——我們徹底檢查了我們現有的每一個模型，並與主管就此進行了溝通。在兩個領域，我們已獲得基本簡化的批准。其一是墨西哥信用卡。因此，我們將恢復墨西哥信用卡的標準模型，而不是採用高級模型。其二是西班牙和墨西哥的批發業務組合。

Wholesale portfolios in Spain and Mexico on that one, we will continue to have advanced models, but we will only -- we will go to foundation. Basically, we will use the models for PD, but not for LGD and CCF.

就西班牙和墨西哥的批發投資組合而言，我們將繼續使用進階模型，但只會轉向基礎模型。基本上，我們會使用違約機率（PD）模型，但不會使用違約損失率（LGD）和信用風險敞口（CCF）模型。

In that context, the positive impact that you have in that 40 to 50 basis points, the gross positive impact is basically evenly split, more, or less half-half, between those two portfolios, Mexico credit cards, wholesale portfolios in Spain and Mexico.

在這種情況下，40 到 50 個基點所帶來的正面影響，整體正面影響基本上是在這兩個投資組合（墨西哥信用卡、西班牙和墨西哥的批發投資組合）之間平均分配的，或多或少各佔一半。

Thank you, Benjamin. Next question, please.

謝謝本傑明。請問下一個問題。

Carlos Peixoto, Caxia Bank.

卡洛斯‧佩索托 (Carlos Peixoto)，卡西亞銀行。

A couple of questions from my side as well. The first one would actually be focused on the second Q. So particularly on the one-offs, if you could help us quantify a bit on how much were the VAT gross impacts, both in Spain and at the corporate center. And then also on the one-offs, you mentioned some DTAs recognition. If you could also quantify how much that meant in the P&L and whether -- and if there is a split between the corporate center and Spain -- the Spanish unit.

我也有幾個問題。第一個問題其實集中在第二個問題上。特別是關於一次性支出，您能否幫助我們量化增值稅在西班牙和公司總部的整體影響。然後，關於一次性支出，您提到了一些避免雙重課稅協定的確認。您是否可以量化一下這對損益表的影響，以及公司總部和西班牙部門之間是否有分割？

Then the second question would be on the capital distribution, the EUR36 billion figure that you mentioned. So the first part of the question is basically, what -- is the intention to distribute all of this or a good part of the -- of those EUR12 billion of excess capital be withheld? So just to make it clear.

那麼第二個問題是關於資本分配，也就是您提到的360億歐元的數字。所以問題的第一部分基本上是，您打算把這120億歐元的超額資本全部或大部分都扣留嗎？我只是想澄清一下。

And then the second part of the question is basically this distribution does not account for the capital impacts from Sabadell integration. How do you expect that figure to move and once we factor in the impact on CET1 from Sabadell's integration and also the additional earnings generation that you will be having out of the deal as well?

問題的第二部分是，這個分佈基本上沒有考慮薩瓦德爾整合所帶來的資本影響。您預計，一旦我們將薩瓦德爾整合對普通股一級資本的影響以及交易帶來的額外收益納入考量，這個數字會如何變化？

Very good. Thank you, Carlos, for the questions. On the first one, and maybe you take the DTAs one, Luisa. On the first one, the one-offs that you mentioned, I think it was Page 4 on the profits for the quarter, basically, two things. Again, VAT and tax rate adjustments based on the results of the tax audit.

非常好。卡洛斯，謝謝你的提問。關於第一個問題，路易莎，也許你可以回答關於避免雙重課稅協定的問題。關於第一個問題，也就是你提到的一次性支出，我記得是在第四頁的季度利潤報告中，基本上就是兩件事。再次強調，增值稅和稅率的調整是基於稅務審計的結果。

Why not provide some transparency on the whole thing?

為什麼不讓整件事情透明一點呢？

These two impacts was basically around EUR250 million, both of them. And I can give you the rule of basically half. Half of this is VAT. The other half is tax rate impact. And half of each one of them is basically, roughly speaking -- and half of each is basically Spain and corporate center.

這兩項影響基本上都在2.5億歐元左右。我可以給你一個大概一半的規則。一半是增值稅，另一半是稅率影響。粗略地說，每項影響的一半基本上都來自西班牙和企業中心。

So you can divide the number of EUR250 million along these line items and along these business units. The $250 million, I mentioned to you, EUR150 million, the negative impact coming from US dollar hedges was at a profit level, at the bottom line profit level was minus EUR100 million. That is why in the presentation, I mentioned to you that the extraordinary impact was EUR150 million. EUR250 million from the tax and minus EUR100 million from US dollar hedges.

所以，你可以把這2.5億歐元依照這些項目和業務部門來劃分。我之前提到的2.5億歐元，也就是1.5億歐元，是美元對沖帶來的負面影響，對利潤水準產生了影響，最終利潤水準是-1億歐元。這就是為什麼我在演示中提到非經常性影響是1.5億歐元。其中2.5億歐元來自稅收，1億歐元來自美元對沖。

I mentioned it in the presentation, but I'm not sure that was registered. The reason that we also categorize dollar hedges as extraordinary in this quarter is starting from this quarter, starting from third quarter 2025, we will be accounting that item because it was for CET1 hedges to manage the volatility of the CET1. We will be accounting for this under capital rather than P&L as well this quarter.

我在簡報中提到過，但我不確定是否已記錄。我們在本季度將美元對沖歸類為非常規項目的原因在於，從本季度開始，也就是從2025年第三季度開始，我們將核算該項目，因為它是用於普通股權一級資本對沖以管理普通股權一級資本的波動性的。本季，我們也將把這部分資金計入資本項目，而不是損益項目。

On the DTAs, Luisa?

關於 DTA，路易莎？

Yes. Well, we did -- we estimate the tax rate for the end of the year, including the activation of EUR150 million of DTAs. We do expect that with the improved visibility that we have on the Spanish profitability, we will be, as I mentioned before, going forward, to continue to include activation of DTAs.

是的。我們確實估算了年底的稅率，其中包括啟動1.5億歐元的避免雙重課稅協定 (DTA)。我們確實預計，隨著我們對西班牙盈利能力的了解不斷提高，正如我之前提到的，我們未來將繼續啟動DTA。

In this case, in our case, we have close to EUR1 billion of DTAs that are readily available, I would say, to be able to activate depending on the visibility that we have going forward of, as I mentioned, the profits of Spain. So that's -- this what I would add.

就我們的情況而言，我們有近10億歐元的租稅協定隨時可用，我想說，這些協定可以根據我們對未來西班牙利潤的預期來啟動。這就是我想補充的。

Carlos, this was back to the 2014, 2015 acquisition of Catalunya Caixa and Unnim and so on. There were some tax assets that we have gained, but they would put them in the balance sheet because we didn't think the Spanish business unit would be doing as good as it is doing at the moment. So that, as Luisa mentioned EUR900 million to EUR1 billion DTA assets. In the next five years, they will be coming in our view, into the P&L, pouring through the P&L.

卡洛斯，這要追溯到2014年和2015年收購加泰隆尼亞儲蓄銀行（Catalunya Caixa）和Unnim銀行等公司。我們獲得了一些稅務資產，但他們會把它們計入資產負債表，因為我們當時認為西班牙業務部門的表現不會像現在這麼好。所以，正如路易莎所提到的，我們獲得了9億到10億歐元的DTA資產。我們認為，在未來五年內，這些資產將進入損益表，並透過損益表不斷湧現。

The last one about the capital distribution, you asked about EUR36 billion. Would you distribute all of this? Carlos, there's a big footnote at the bottom of that presentation, but that's the capital available. That's our intention. Actually, our capital stack -- or our capital deployment priorities are very clear.

最後關於資本分配的問題，您問到大約360億歐元。您會全部分配嗎？卡洛斯，簡報底部有一個很大的腳註，但這就是可用資本。這就是我們的意圖。實際上，我們的資本結構——或者說我們的資本部署優先順序非常明確。

As you see on page 29, we are going to be creating, generating, or liberating in total EUR49 billion CET1 capital. And we are saying EUR13 billion, 1-3, of this is for growth and EUR36 billion is for distribution. I would actually love that EUR13 billion is a higher figure because it's profitable growth. We are creating further capital with that growth, okay?

正如您在第29頁所見，我們將創造、產生或釋放總計490億歐元的普通一級資本。其中，130億歐元（1-3%）用於成長，360億歐元用於分配。我實際上希望130億歐元這個數字更高，因為這是獲利性成長。我們正在利用這筆成長創造更多資本，對嗎？

But as you have -- as we have mentioned to you for the plan, we are gaining slight market share already in the plan already. So the maximum that we thought we can deploy for growth is EUR13 billion. As such, the remainder, EUR36 million, is available for distribution.

但正如您——我們之前就計劃向您提到的——我們已經在計劃中獲得了少量市場份額。因此，我們認為可以用於增長的最高金額是130億歐元。因此，剩餘的3600萬歐元可供分配。

EUR24 billion is regular payout. It's basically 40% to 50%. In the EUR24 billion, we assumed the maximum 50% times the EUR48 billion of profits that we would be generating, EUR24 billion is the regular payout and the EUR12 billion is the excess capital.

240億歐元是定期派息，比例基本上是40%到50%。在這240億歐元中，我們假設最高比例是50%，乘以我們將產生的480億歐元利潤，其中240億歐元是定期派息，120億歐元是超額資本。

If we can grow profitably with more, we can channel a bit of this into the growth. But I don't think that's going to be the case, and this EUR36 billion will be available for distribution. And then the last one, capital impacts from the Sabadell integration. Do these include Sabadell? This is a spend alone plan that we are presenting today. Nothing of Sabadell is in this number. We wanted to make sure that our stand-alone intrinsic value is totally captured in these figures.

如果我們能夠透過增加投入來實現獲利成長，我們可以將其中一部分用於成長。但我認為情況並非如此，這360億歐元將用於分配。最後一個問題是薩瓦德爾整合帶來的資本影響。這包括薩瓦德爾嗎？我們今天介紹的是一項單獨支出計劃。薩瓦德爾的任何數據都不包含在內。我們希望確保我們獨立的內在價值能夠完全體現在這些數字中。

If the Sabadell transaction doesn't happen, these are the numbers that we will be delivering. And you asked about the impact from the Sabadell integration on the Sabadell topic, as you know, it's very likely we expect the expectation period and also the publishment -- the publishing of the prospectus will be done at the beginning of September.

如果薩瓦德爾交易未能完成，這些就是我們將要公佈的數據。您問到薩瓦德爾整合對薩瓦德爾業務的影響，正如您所知，我們預計預期期限以及招股說明書的發佈時間很可能在9月初。

Once that happens, we will have a full session on the numbers around Sabadell and so on at that time. Today, it's the stand-alone intrinsic valuation of BBVA.

一旦發生這種情況，我們將在那時就薩瓦德爾等地的數據進行全面討論。今天，討論的是西班牙對外銀行（BBVA）的獨立內在估值。

Thank you very much, Carlos. Next question, please.

非常感謝，卡洛斯。請問下一個問題。

Cecilia Romero, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的塞西莉亞·羅梅羅。

I wanted to ask the first one on the transaction. Following the government's announcement of the remedies, what visibility do you have on the phasing of synergies? Even if it's a qualitative assessment, it would be good to have your thoughts. We heard from Sabadell on these during results.

我想問第一個關於交易的問題。在政府宣布補救措施後，您對協同效應的分階段實施有何展望？即使是定性評估，也希望您能提出自己的想法。我們在業績發表會上聽取了薩瓦德爾能源公司對這些問題的意見。

And also my other question is Turkey appears to be progressing well, perhaps a bit slower that you initially expected. Given its importance to unlocking more value for BBVA, how do you see that profit development over the course of the plan?

另外，我的另一個問題是，土耳其的進展似乎不錯，可能比您最初預期的要慢。鑑於土耳其對BBVA釋放更多價值的重要性，您如何看待該計畫實施過程中的利潤成長？

Thank you, Cecilia, as always, for the questions. On the first one, phasing of the synergies, as I mentioned in September, once we have the prospectus available, you will have all the numbers there, and we will have a dedicated call to discuss about those numbers.

一如既往，謝謝Cecilia的提問。關於第一個問題，關於協同效應的分階段實施，正如我9月份提到的，一旦我們拿到招股說明書，裡面就會有所有數據，我們會專門召開電話會議討論這些數據。

On -- but on transaction, the only thing I can tell you is that it is a delayed merger scenario, delayed merger scenario. So we will be delaying the deal, but the synergies, again, in detail, we will discuss in September.

關於交易，我唯一能告訴你的是，這是一個延遲合併的情況。所以我們會推遲這筆交易，但關於協同效應，我們會在9月詳細討論。

Regarding Turkey, it is moving a bit slower than expected. You have, again, the full assumptions on macro, which is very important for the piece of Turkey within the plan, macro effects too much or as obviously, it is driven by inflation and interest rates. You will see all the details in the appendix for Turkey on different macro parameters growth, interest rates, inflation and so on.

關於土耳其，其發展速度略低於預期。再次強調，宏觀經濟假設對土耳其在計畫中的地位至關重要，宏觀經濟影響過大，或者說，顯而易見，它受通膨和利率驅動。附錄將詳細介紹土耳其在各種宏觀參數方面的情況，包括經濟成長、利率、通膨等。

The only thing that I can tell you is that in the plan, the EUR48 billion, which is another anchor for us for the strategic plan, EUR48 billion accumulated profits in 4 years. Turkey, in that number represents around 10% -- 10% to 12% basically.

我唯一能告訴你的是，在該計畫中，480億歐元是我們策略規劃的另一個支柱，480億歐元在四年內累積了利潤。土耳其在這個數字中佔大約10%——基本上是10%到12%。

Thank you so much, Cecilia. Next question, please.

非常感謝，Cecilia。請問下一個問題。

Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Ignacio Ulargui。

I have two questions. The first one is on capital distribution and the EUR13 billion that you have readily available for distribution. Is there a chance that you can start the buyback before launching the offer for Sabadell or that will have to come after everything has been cleared out? First question.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於資本分配，以及你們目前可供分配的130億歐元資金。你們有可能在啟動對薩瓦德爾的收購要約之前就開始回購股票嗎？還是必須在所有資金清空之後再進行？第一個問題。

And the second one is on Mexico. I mean, you flagged that during your presentation, the Mexican economy has been very strong in 2Q, and that was largely driven by investments. Please elaborate a bit on what will be the prospects of lending growth. If I just look local currency, loan growth was a bit soft in the quarter. Obviously, it was a very uncertain quarter.

第二個問題是關於墨西哥的。您在演講中提到，墨西哥經濟在第二季非常強勁，這主要得益於投資。請您詳細闡述貸款成長的前景。如果僅以當地貨幣計算，本季的貸款成長略顯疲軟。顯然，這是一個充滿不確定性的季度。

I mean, how should we think about this high single-digit growth in revenues and in activity? Is it going to be largely driven by corporate investments or it's more bank and consumer lending and retail lending?

我的意思是，我們應該如何看待這種收入和業務的高個位數成長？它主要由企業投資驅動，還是更由銀行、消費者貸款和零售貸款驅動？

Very good. Maybe on Mexico, Lisa, you can help. On the share buyback that you ask, not sure. We will start the share buyback after the completion of the expectation period.

非常好。麗莎，也許墨西哥的事你能幫忙。至於你問到的股票回購，我不太確定。我們將在預期期結束後開始股票回購。

On Mexico?

在墨西哥？

Yes. So on Mexico, the evolution of the portfolio of the loan grown in Mexico, actually, I think, has remained quite solid because it's grown 0.7% quarter on quarter, but if you exclude the FX impact, it really has grown 2% quarter on quarter. We still have seen solid performance in retail growing 2.9%, and this is underpinned by the growth that we've been focusing on, which has been consumer, but especially SMEs, credit cards.

是的。關於墨西哥，我認為墨西哥貸款組合的成長實際上保持了相當穩健的勢頭，因為環比增長了0.7%。但如果剔除匯率影響，環比成長其實是2%。我們仍然看到零售業務表現穩健，成長了2.9%，這得益於我們一直關注的成長，即消費者信用卡，尤其是中小企業信用卡。

And I would highlight a -- credit cards because in these two areas, we continue to gain market share, especially, I think in SMEs, it is quite sound where we already have achieved a 33% market share. So this momentum is quite resilient despite, as we were mentioning, a softer macro scenario.

我想強調的是信用卡業務，因為在這兩個領域，我們的市佔率持續成長，尤其是在中小企業領域，我們的表現相當穩健，目前我們已經佔據了33%的市場。因此，儘管正如我們之前提到的，宏觀經濟形勢較為疲軟，但這一成長勢頭仍然相當強勁。

In the corporate lending side, we decreased 1.7% quarter on quarter. But again, excluding FX, it really was an increase of 1%, and that was supported by growth in enterprise loans across the board, the high corporate and the lower enterprises. So I think in general, the outlook continues to be supportive.

企業貸款方面，我們季減了1.7%。但扣除外匯因素，實際成長了1%，這得益於企業貸款的全面成長，包括貸款額較高的企業貸款和貸款額較低的企業貸款。因此，我認為總體而言，前景仍然樂觀。

We did raise our guidance for activity growth this year. In terms of the way it trickles into the P&L, I would say that, as we've mentioned, we do still see spreads being compressed. We do expect Banxico to continue to decrease rates. We are expecting a 7% rate from Banxico at the end of the year, and that will continue to pressure the evolution of the NII. But still, I think, in a better way than what we've seen at the beginning of the year.

我們確實上調了今年活動成長的預期。至於其對損益表的影響，正如我們之前提到的，我認為利差仍在縮小。我們預計墨西哥央行將繼續下調利率。我們預計墨西哥央行年底的利率將達到7%，這將繼續對國家資訊基礎指數（NII）的演變施加壓力。但我認為，這比年初的情況好。

So all in, I think that we are quite comfortable with the guidance that we've given in the high single-digit growth in revenues. Going forward, I would just say that the plan basically for the 2024, 2028 numbers assumes that the profile of growth in Mexico is going to be quite consistent, i.e., we're going to still be seeing growth in retail and in corporate lending more or less in the same dynamics that we've seen so far.

總而言之，我認為我們對我們給出的高個位數收入成長預期非常滿意。展望未來，我想說的是，2024年和2028年的計畫基本上假設墨西哥的成長模式將保持相當穩定，也就是說，我們仍將看到零售和企業貸款的成長態勢與目前大致相同。

I will highlight one thing that Luisa said, Ignacio, which is, again, if you look into like 2, 2.5 years ago, the maximum rate that we have seen in Mexico, let me say the other way around, was [11 25] in this last cycle, [11 25]. Today, we are at eight, okay? So we have seen a reduction of 325 basis points in Mexico.

我要強調路易莎·伊格納西奧說過的一點，那就是，如果你回顧一下兩年半前，墨西哥的最高利率，反過來說，在上一個週期裡是[11月25日]，[11月25日]。而今天，我們已經降到了8個基點，對吧？所以，我們看到墨西哥的利率下降了325個基點。

And in Mexico, the rate variability effect, meaning the wholesale loans, and it's a very quick repricing, the reset of the interest rate happens very quickly, okay? So we have already incorporated 325 basis points into our core revenues, into our NII.

在墨西哥，利率變動效應，也就是批發貸款，是一個非常快速的重新定價，利率的重置發生得非常快，對吧？所以我們已經將 325 個基點納入了我們的核心收入，納入了我們的 NII。

What you are assuming in the plan, and again, you can see that in the macro assumptions in the appendix that interest rates would continue to come down a bit more, but they will stabilize at 6.5%. Given the inflation in the country, again, inflation expectations and so on, that 6.5%, we think, is a very fair assumption. This is also where the market is, by the way.

您在計劃中假設的是，如附錄中的宏觀假設所示，利率將繼續小幅下降，但最終將穩定在6.5%。考慮到國內的通膨情況、通膨預期等等，我們認為6.5%的假設非常合理。順便說一句，這也是市場目前的水平。

What happens then? If the interest rates stop decline, I mentioned this also briefly in the call, if interest rates stopped declining, and again, we have today at 8%, expectation is that it will stabilize at 6.5%, the margin compression because of this, there are many other things that we are doing to help on the margin. But because of this, the margin compression will be moderating and will be stopping.

那麼會發生什麼事？如果利率停止下降，我在電話會議上也簡要提到了這一點，如果利率停止下降，我們今天的利率是8%，預計它會穩定在6.5%，利潤率因此受到壓縮，我們正在採取許多其他措施來幫助提高利潤率。但正因為如此，利潤率的壓縮將會減緩，最終停止。

What does that mean? The activity growth that you can achieve, unless, again, there is more decline in the interest rates, will flow to the bottom line. Activity growth will become part of -- a very important part of core revenue increase and will then increase the bottom line. There is the assumption here.

這是什麼意思？除非利率進一步下降，否則你所能實現的活動成長將轉化為利潤。活動成長將成為核心收入成長的重要部分，進而增加利潤。這是假設。

Regarding the growth and the breakdown of the growth, we can tell you is that the growth is relatively balanced. But as you know, we have 30% market share in retail in Mexico, but only 23% market share in enterprises. And that 23% market share, we want to increase. So the market share gains will come more from the enterprise side. But the growth, and I have it in front of me, portfolio by portfolio, it will be balanced.

關於成長及其細分，我們可以告訴大家，成長相對均衡。但如大家所知，我們在墨西哥零售市場佔有30%的份額，但在企業市場只有23%。我們希望提升這23%的市佔率。因此，市場份額的成長將更多來自企業市場。但就我目前所看到的，每個投資組合的成長都將保持均衡。

Thank you very much, Ignacio. Next question, please.

非常感謝，Ignacio。請問下一個問題。

Maks Mishyn, JB Capital.

Maks Mishyn，JB Capital。

The first one is on the efficiency targets for 2028. I was wondering if it includes any restructuring and potential additional investments in between. And the second question is on the Sabadell deal. Apologies for this, but with such ambitious targets, just want to understand why you still want to pursue the Sabadell deal, especially considering the moratoria on the merger. They've just presented a plan with RoTE of 16% -- you are a minute much higher spend -- your thoughts on this would be super helpful.

第一個問題是關於2028年的效率目標。我想知道這其中是否包括任何重組以及在此期間潛在的額外投資。第二個問題是關於薩瓦德爾交易的。抱歉，但鑑於目標如此雄心勃勃，我只是想了解一下，為什麼您仍然想繼續推進薩瓦德爾交易，尤其是在合併暫停的情況下。他們剛剛提出了一項計劃，其淨資產收益率（RoTE）為16%——你們的支出要高出一個百分點——你們對此的看法將非常有幫助。

Do you want to take the efficiency goal?

您想實現效率目標嗎？

Yes, for sure. I mean, we do have embedded in the plan, especially in the last part of the cycle, in the last two years, productivity plan is included relating primarily to our efforts in productivity coming from engineering and ops affected also about what's going on in terms of AI, data availability and technology. And we do think that the plan will start to be an effect primarily more in '28 than in '27 and going actually on going forward.

是的，當然。我的意思是，我們的計劃中確實包含了生產力計劃，尤其是在周期的最後階段，也就是過去兩年，這主要與我們在工程和營運方面努力提高生產力有關，也與人工智慧、數據可用性和技術方面的情況有關。我們確實認為，該計劃將在2028年比2027年更能產生效果，並且會持續下去。

This is the timeline that we are expecting right now, and it will affect primarily the engineering and ops where we do see that there's a lot of potential. We're already looking, even today, at some very interesting dynamics going on with the way we're using agents and bots, and what we're developing. We're seeing, in certain cases, even when we're developing very simple programs from software development efficiencies in terms of time development of around even 70% of very simple things.

這是我們目前預期的時間表，它將主要影響工程和營運領域，我們確實看到了巨大的潛力。即使在今天，我們也已經在關注代理商和機器人的使用方式以及我們正在開發的內容中發生的一些非常有趣的動態。在某些情況下，即使是開發非常簡單的程序，我們也發現軟體開發效率的提升，就開發時間而言，大約70%的非常簡單的專案。

Highlighting also, and even in the way we're using the agent in our apps, in blue and in Mexico, it's already handling 37 million calls that we used to have in IDR, which improves the performance and the experience with customers significantly by 65% in terms of time and attendance.

還要強調的是，即使我們在應用程式中使用代理的方式（藍色和墨西哥），它已經處理了我們以前在 IDR 中的 3700 萬個呼叫，這在時間和出勤率方面顯著提高了 65% 的性能和客戶體驗。

So all these little things that we're seeing give us hope with a very structured priority, as you've seen, it is a strategic priority for us, as we highlighted in the beginning of the slide. We do feel that by '27, '28 and onwards, we will see productivity gains. And I was mentioning before, primarily driven in engineering and ops, but also in business networks and other areas. So we do expect those numbers to come in through '28, and that's why you see improved cost to income in that year.

所以，我們看到的所有這些小變化都給了我們希望，因為我們有一個非常結構化的優先事項，正如您所看到的，這是我們的戰略重點，正如我們在幻燈片開頭所強調的那樣。我們確實認為，到2027年、2028年及以後，我們的生產力將會提高。我之前提到過，這主要體現在工程和營運方面，但也體現在業務網絡和其他領域。因此，我們確實預計這些數字將在2028年達到峰值，這也是您看到2028年成本收入比有所改善的原因。

Okay. And then the second question marks, which is -- so you have a very strong plan, why do you want to still pursue the Sabadell deal? Maks, the deal is a great deal for everyone. We said it multiple times before. I don't want to repeat myself.

好的。接下來是第二個問題，也就是說——既然你有一個非常強大的計劃，為什麼你仍然想繼續推進薩瓦德爾的交易？馬克斯，這筆交易對雙方來說都是一筆好交易。我們之前已經說過很多次了。我不想重複。

But financial sector, banking sector globally, especially in Europe, we need scale. We need scale. And I don't need to again repeat the numbers of the previous calls but only in Spain, only in Spain, BBVA spends EUR1.1 billion in technology every year. This was the number of 2024. It keeps increasing.

但全球金融業、銀行業，尤其是在歐洲，我們需要規模。我們需要規模。我不需要重複先前電話會議中的數字，光是在西班牙，西班牙對外銀行（BBVA）每年在技術方面的投入就高達11億歐元。這是2024年的數字，而且還在持續成長。

Globally, we are spending nearly EUR4 billion in technology. And big banks, small banks, in our view, it doesn't matter, especially banks, which operate in mass banking, which have branches, which have all the channels and so on, they cannot compete unless they find a way to consolidate. Because even the small banks, they have to spend these hundreds of millions of euros or billions of euros in technology.

我們在全球範圍內投入了近40億歐元用於技術開發。我們認為，無論是大銀行還是小銀行，尤其是那些經營大眾銀行業務、擁有分行、擁有所有管道等等的銀行，除非找到整合的途徑，否則都無法參與競爭。因為即使是小型銀行，也必須在技術開發上投入數億歐元甚至數十億歐元。

You have to invest in AI. You have to invest in cybersecurity. You have to invest in -- which is the new regulation about the resilience of IT systems and this and that. Most of these costs are fixed costs. So it makes sense for two banks to come together.

你必須投資人工智慧。你必須投資網路安全。你必須投資──也就是關於IT系統彈性的新法規等等。這些成本大部分都是固定成本。因此，兩家銀行合併是合理的。

It's -- I called it once a textbook transaction. Why? Because you have to optimize the cost. It just doesn't make sense that two banks in Spain paying hundreds of millions of euros to external IT providers to develop our IT systems. It doesn't make sense.

我曾經稱之為教科書式的交易。為什麼？因為你必須優化成本。西班牙的兩家銀行向外部IT供應商支付數億歐元來開發我們的IT系統，根本說不通。這太不合理了。

So it's a great deal for both. But as you just said, we have a great plan ahead of us. And if the deal doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. It's completely fine. We move on. We said it multiple times. I'm repeating it with full force today. It doesn't happen. If it doesn't happen, we move on. We move on.

所以這對雙方來說都是一筆好交易。但正如你剛才所說，我們有一個很棒的計劃。如果交易沒有達成，那就不達成。完全沒問題。我們繼續前進。我們已經說過很多次了。今天我再次強調。這不會發生。如果沒發生，我們就繼續前進。我們繼續前進。

I mean, I understand the curiosity or the inquiry around this, but as you just saw, we presented a plan of EUR48 billion. It can lead to profit in 4 years, average EUR12 billion in profits. You can only hear positive things from us about Sabadell. They are an amazing bank. They are a great bank, but they presented their plan last week.

我理解大家對此的好奇或詢問，但正如你剛才看到的，我們提出了一個480億歐元的計劃。該計劃可以在4年內帶來獲利，平均利潤120億歐元。你從我們這裡聽到的都是關於薩瓦德爾銀行的正面評價。他們是一家很棒的銀行，一家很棒的銀行，但他們上周公布了他們的計劃。

The expectation, annual profit that they are projecting is EUR1.6 billion, okay? EUR12 billion, EUR1.6 billion. We understand the curiosity around this. But if the deal doesn't happen, we move on. We have EUR12 billion to deliver.

他們預計的年利潤是16億歐元，對吧？ 120億歐元，16億歐元。我們理解大家對此的好奇。但如果交易沒有達成，我們就會繼續前進。我們還有120億歐元要交貨。

EUR1.6 billion can help because of the synergies that I mentioned and so on. But if it doesn't happen, we move on, and we execute our amazing plan, and that's why we presented our plan today.

16億歐元可以提供幫助，因為我之前提到的協同效應等等。但如果沒有實現，我們將繼續前進，執行我們出色的計劃，這就是我們今天提出計劃的原因。

Thank you very much, Maks. Next question, please.

非常感謝，Maks。請問下一個問題。

Francisco Riquel, Alantra.

弗朗西斯科·里克爾，阿蘭特拉。

Yes. So my first question, if I understand well, the slide 29, the presentation, you plan to generate in EUR12 billion of excess capital in the plan. But you already have over EUR5 billion today. EUR5 billion more will come from SRTs, and EUR2 billion will come from the regulatory impacts that you expect in the second half.

是的。所以我的第一個問題，如果我理解正確的話，在簡報的第29張投影片中，您計劃在計劃中產生120億歐元的超額資本。但目前您已經有超過50億歐元了。另外50億歐元將來自SRT，20億歐元將來自您預計下半年的監管影響。

So I understand this plan is about loan growth, very capital intensive, but there is no excess capital generation organically from the -- just to see whether I have the math well or not.

所以我明白這個計劃是關於貸款成長的，非常資本密集，但沒有有機地產生多餘的資本——只是為了看看我的數學計算是否好。

And second, in this context, it is key to assess the profitability of the capital that you will generate. So first of all, organically, do you plan to invest EUR13 billion in growth? So that's equivalent to EUR108 billion in RWAs. That's 27% growth in your RWA base. So will you increase profits by 27% as well over the same period?

其次，在這種情況下，評估您將產生的資本的獲利能力至關重要。首先，您計劃在有機成長方面投資130億歐元嗎？這相當於1080億歐元的風險加權資產（RWA）。這意味著您的風險加權資產基數成長了27%。那麼，您的利潤在同一時期也會成長27%嗎？

And how much will it come from Turkey and Argentina? And then inorganically, with 22% ROTE, such a great prospect to standalone. What is the return that you would require from any M&A investment?

土耳其和阿根廷的貢獻有多少？此外，由於其22%的ROTE，獨立營運的前景非常好。您要求從任何併購投資中獲得多少回報？

Very good, So Paco, on the first question, obviously, you don't have all the details, but some of the assumptions that you are making is not what we have in the plan. For example, regulatory impacts, we have talked to you about regulatory impacts for this year. But for the four-year period that we are projecting here, we are expecting some negative regulatory impacts to come along as well.

非常好，帕科，關於第一個問題，顯然你並不了解所有細節，但你做出的一些假設與我們計劃中的內容並不相符。例如，監管影響，我們已經和你討論過今年的監管影響。但就我們目前預測的四年期而言，我們預計也會出現一些負面的監管影響。

For example, in 2028, you'll try to manage it and so on, but there is this operational risk as a topic that will be coming along next year, most likely now in 2027, being incorporated here FRTB negative impact coming from those. So the regulatory impact number that you are putting is not true.

例如，在2028年，你會嘗試管理它等等，但營運風險這個話題明年才會出現，很可能在2027年，並會納入由此產生的FRTB負面影響。所以你提供的監管影響數字是不真實的。

The number that you are looking for, though, it's a good way to look into this, I fully agree, the organic capital accumulation, capital generation number that we have is on average around 40 basis points. So on top of everything that you see, we will do the SRTs, we will grow, we will absorb the regulatory impacts, understand that. Every year, we are expecting on top of what we have to create 40 basis points of excess capital. That's the number that you should be looking into.

不過，您正在尋找的數字，這是一個很好的觀察方法，我完全同意。我們目前的有機資本累積和資本產生率平均約為40個基點。所以，除了您看到的所有情況之外，我們還會進行SRT，我們會發展壯大，我們會吸收監管的影響，並明白這一點。每年，我們都預期在現有基礎上創造40個基點的超額資本。這就是您應該關注的數字。

Then the second question I didn't fully get it. Maybe, Luisa, you jump in. The only thing I would say is that we already answered the Turkey one, but the Turkish number here is 10% to 12% because we are expecting them to improve only in 2027 a bit and 2028, but not earlier. So 10% to 12% of the total cumulative profit that you see here will be coming from Turkey. And for Argentina, much, much less, around 2% basically.

然後第二個問題我沒完全理解。路易莎，你也許想插嘴一下。我只想說，我們已經回答了關於土耳其的問題，但這裡土耳其的利潤率是10%到12%，因為我們預計他們只會在2027年和2028年有所改善，但不會更早。所以你在這裡看到的累計利潤總額的10%到12%將來自土耳其。而阿根廷的利潤率則低得多，基本上在2%左右。

Anything else you want to add on that?

您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I would just add that the evolution that we have, the CAGR of the bottom line of net attributable profit per year in the period is around 9%, and that is affected by obviously a slower CAGR at the beginning of the -- or slower numbers of growth at the beginning of the year. Also, again, increasing towards the end of the period, primarily also, again, with the hyperinflationary economies coming out of hyperinflation in 28. But on average, it's 9% CAGR growth of the bottom line.

不。我只想補充一點，我們目前的進展情況是，本期淨利潤的年複合成長率約為9%，這顯然受到了年初複合成長率放緩的影響——或者說，年初成長放緩的影響。此外，在期末，成長率有所上升，這主要也是因為惡性通貨膨脹的經濟體在2028年擺脫了惡性通貨膨脹。但平均而言，本期淨利的年複合成長率為9%。

Then you asked about our threshold for M&A investments. Paco, on this one, as you know, and as I just mentioned, our capital deployment priorities are clear. If we can grow at a profitable level, first, we will grow organically. Then we will look into the excess capital, and the threshold there is the threshold of alternatives. You have to look into what different alternatives exist to deploy that capital.

然後你問我們併購投資的門檻。帕科，關於這一點，正如你所知，正如我剛才提到的，我們的資本配置重點很明確。如果我們能夠實現獲利成長，首先，我們會進行有機成長。然後，我們會研究過剩資本，而這個門檻就是替代方案的門檻。你必須研究有哪些不同的替代方案來部署這些資本。

And we always will look into what is the return of the share buyback and how that return of share buyback compares with any other potential M&A opportunities.

我們將始終研究股票回購的回報是多少，以及股票回購的回報與任何其他潛在的併購機會相比如何。

But as you can imagine, we have said it many times before, we see -- as we have done in Sabadell, we see M&A only makes sense if you can create a lot of synergies. That's why we always said we are only interested in domestic consolidation, and we don't see too many opportunities in that sense going forward.

但正如你所想像的，我們之前已經多次說過，正如我們在薩瓦德爾所做的那樣，我們認為併購只有在能夠創造大量協同效應的情況下才有意義。這就是為什麼我們一直說我們只對國內整合感興趣，我們認為未來在這方面不會有太多機會。

So you will compare with the share buyback, if there is an opportunity. And if the share buyback beats, you don't do the deal. If the share buyback is lower, you do the deal. That's what I'll be looking to it.

所以，如果有機會，你會與股票回購進行比較。如果股票回購價格高於預期，你就不會做這筆交易。如果股票回購價格低於預期，你就做這筆交易。這就是我關注的重點。

Thank you very much, Paco. Next question, please.

非常感謝，Paco。請問下一個問題。

Britta Schmidt, Autonomous Research.

布里塔‧施密特 (Britta Schmidt)，自主研究。

My first one would be on the capital and the excess capital calculation, which is based on the upper end of your 11% to 12% hurdle. The 12% ratio would still seem relatively low versus where we expect peers to be. How confident do you think that this is a realistic number that doesn't impact the implied cost of equity of the bank?

我首先想問的是資本和超額資本的計算，這是基於你設定的11%到12%的上限。與我們預期的同業相比，12%的比例似乎仍然相對較低。你有多大把握認為這是一個現實的數字，不會影響銀行的隱含股本成本？

The second one would be on the cost growth in the plan. Maybe you can give us a little bit of an idea how the cost CAGR would compare to the inflation assumptions that you've used on a goal level. And then actually just a clarification, would I be right in assuming that you're aiming for around EUR10.5 billion profit this year? And then you're guiding towards a slower increase in the near term and a little bit of a -- towards 2028, given hyperinflation changes and also the impact of rates declined that could still impact '26, 27?

第二個問題是關於計劃中的成本成長。您能否稍微介紹一下，成本複合年增長率與您在目標水準上採用的通膨假設相比如何？然後，實際上需要澄清一下，我假設您今年的目標是實現約105億歐元的利潤，對嗎？考慮到惡性通膨的變化以及利率下降的影響（這仍然可能影響2026年和2027年），您預計短期內利潤成長會放緩，到2028年會略有回升。

Thank you, Britta, as always. So on the 11%, 12% and the target and so on, Britta, I think you mentioned it also before in the previous calls. But I have a table in front of me that I look into quite frequently, which is the requirement from the supervisor and the target. Let's take the upper end of our target, 12% as the target for this analysis versus our CET1 requirement. Our gap, our buffer is 288 basis points, okay, 288.

一如既往，謝謝你，布里塔。布里塔，關於11%、12%以及目標等等，我想你在之前的電話會議中也提到過。我面前有一張我經常查看的表格，上面列出了主管的要求和目標。我們以目標的上限，也就是12%作為本次分析的目標，並與我們的普通股一級（CET1）要求進行比較。我們的差距，也就是緩衝，是288個基點，好的，288個基點。

You have our peer group in all of our presentations. In the footnotes, we indicate the largest banks as our peer group. The 10 largest banks in Europe within that peer group that you see in the presentation, what is the buffer that they have? They have 231. So we have 57 basis points more buffer than they do.

我們所有的簡報中都有我們的同儕組。在腳註中，我們將最大的銀行列為我們的同行組。您在簡報中看到的同業組中，歐洲最大的10家銀行的緩衝是多少？他們有231個基點。所以我們的緩衝比他們高出57個基點。

So we always compare or look into the -- let me discuss the management target. We look into the absolute number, but we -- shouldn't we also look into the requirement? Because that requirement is driven by the capability of you delivering organic capital accumulation. The stability of that, your position in the stress test, all of that is factored in into a number, which is the requirement.

所以我們總是會比較或研究——讓我來討論一下管理目標。我們會研究絕對數字，但我們──難道我們不應該也研究一下要求嗎？因為這個要求是由你實現有機資本累積的能力所驅動的。這種能力的穩定性，你在壓力測試中的表現，所有這些都會被計入一個數字中，這個數字就是要求。

So as compared to our requirements, actually among in -- including the 10, including us, 11 banks, we are number two in that list, in that list. And maybe you have seen it, but there will be some adjustments to requirements as well going forward for us, positively speaking. Yesterday, Banco -- Bank of Spain has published the new -- buffers and so on. So we don't expect independent of that change, though, which is going to be helping on the requirement. We are not planning to change our management target.

因此，與我們的要求相比，實際上在包括我們在內的10家銀行中，我們在這份名單中排名第二。也許您已經看到了，但從積極的方面來看，未來我們的要求也會有一些調整。昨天，西班牙銀行公佈了新的緩衝措施等等。因此，我們並不指望這些變化會獨立於要求之外，但這將有助於滿足要求。我們不打算改變我們的管理目標。

And we have numbers clearly in front of us, which talks about the sufficiency of that number. On the cost, Lisa, do you want to take that?

我們面前有清晰的數字，說明這些數字是否足夠。麗莎，關於成本，你願意接受嗎？

Well, I would just say that since you have the cost-to-income ratio there, I would highlight that the CAGR, the cost-to-income ratio is pretty similar to the actual target of the cost-to-income ratio. And you have the revenue growth. You can see that the cost growth is quite -- do it, I would say, in the period and well below the inflation targets.

嗯，我想說的是，既然你提到了成本收入比，我想強調一下，複合年增長率（CAGR），也就是成本收入比，與實際成本收入比目標值非常接近。而且你還看到了營收成長。你可以看到，成本成長相當——我想說，在這段時間內，遠低於通膨目標。

We expect positive jaws in all the geographies as well. So again, as we mentioned before, quite a strong cost discipline throughout the program, coupled with those productivity plans coming in at the latter part of the period.

我們預期所有地區的業績都會呈現正面態勢。正如我們之前提到的，整個專案期間的成本控制相當嚴格，再加上後期推出的生產力計畫。

Very good. I mean, the team is here, is warning me on Paco's question, by the way. On the share buyback threshold or the share buyback return; as a threshold for M&A decisions, obviously, I was assuming that we are not going to be -- if we have excess capital, we can do share buyback or we can give it back to the shareholders in terms of cash, depending on the share buyback returns and so on.

非常好。順便說一下，團隊在這裡，就帕科的問題提醒了我。關於股票回購門檻或股票回購回報；作為併購決策的門檻，顯然，我假設我們不會…如果我們有剩餘資本，我們可以進行股票回購，或以現金形式返還給股東，這取決於股票回購回報等等。

Obviously, there's a threshold, but we are not going to disclose that threshold, Paco. Regarding the last question, Britta, on the EUR10 billion and the hockey stick, actually, there is not a huge hockey stick here at all.

顯然，有一個門檻，但我們不會透露這個門檻，帕科。關於最後一個問題，布里塔，關於100億歐元和曲棍球棒，實際上，這裡根本沒有什麼巨大的曲棍球棒。

Again, it goes back to what I said also during the presentation. If you go back to that page in the appendix and if you assume that the interest rates in Europe, as you see in Europe, it's 1.75%. We are expecting it at the end of this year, but then it doesn't go down any further. Or in the case of Mexico, if you see 6.5% is the stability level of the interest rate.

再一次，這又回到我在演講中提到的內容。如果你回到附錄的那一頁，假設歐洲的利率，正如你所看到的，是1.75%。我們預計今年底利率會達到1.75%，但之後不會再下降了。或者就墨西哥而言，6.5%是利率的穩定水準。

If you assume those, that is what affects the numbers much more in a pronounced rate than the -- and I gave you the Turkish number as well. The hockey stick can only come from hyperinflation, but the total number of Turkey is 10% to 12% of the total accumulated profits.

如果你假設這些，那麼這些因素對數字的影響會比——我也給了你土耳其的數字——更大。曲棍球棒效應只能來自惡性通貨膨脹，但土耳其的總數佔累計利潤總額的10%到12%。

So it's a broader thing. Obviously, there is some improvement over the years, but I wouldn't categorize it as a hockey stick.

所以這是一個更廣泛的問題。顯然，這些年來確實有一些改進，但我不會把它歸類為曲棍球棒。

Thank you very much, Britta. Next question, please.

非常感謝，布里塔。請問下一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Hugo Cruz, KBW.

（操作員指示）Hugo Cruz，KBW。

I have a few questions. So first of all, you have the EUR48 billion cumulative profit target and the EUR39 billion of CET1 generation. Can you explain what's the delta between the 2? I can see the EUR1 billion of DTAs. There will be some AT1 coupons, I imagine, EUR4.5 billion, EUR5 billion. So what's the rest? Is it FX headwinds? So that's my first question.

我有幾個問題。首先，您設定了480億歐元的累積利潤目標和390億歐元的普通股本收益（CET1）。您能解釋一下這兩者之間的差額嗎？我可以看到10億歐元的DTA（未償稅協議）。我猜應該會有一些AT1票，大概是45億歐元、50億歐元。那麼剩下的呢？是外匯逆風嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Second, you have -- you've talked about EUR13 billion of capital distribution available in the near term. If you could kind of give us a timing for that. And I guess, related to that, some of that might be from the SRT. You have EUR5 billion of SRT contribution in the plan. So perhaps, that's included. So again, if you could give us the timing of those SRTs. That's it.

第二，您提到了近期130億歐元的資本分配。能否請您給我們一個具體時間？我想，與此相關的是，其中一部分可能來自SRT。您的計劃中有50億歐元的SRT貢獻。所以，這筆資金可能已經包含在內了。所以，能否請您再告訴我們這些SRT的具體時間？就是這樣。

Thank you, Hugo. On the SRTs, maybe, what we expect in the plan maybe also and also this year, maybe talk about it, Luisa. But on the EUR39 billion, it's a very good point, Hugo. The EUR39 billion that we put in the page, page 29, of CET1 generation, why is it different from EUR48 billion? Because of FX.

謝謝，Hugo。關於SRT，也許，我們在計畫中預期的內容，以及今年的情況，或許可以談談，Luisa。但關於390億歐元，Hugo，你提的非常好。我們在第29頁，關於CET1生成，提到的390億歐元，為什麼它與480億歐元不同？因為外匯。

If you look into the -- again, the depreciation impact in the appendix of the currencies that we are putting in there, net of hyper impact, it's going to be that deduction basically, EUR48 billion to EUR39 billion is that FX impact.

如果您再看一下——我們附錄中貨幣的貶值影響，扣除超級影響後，基本上就是扣除額，480 億歐元到 390 億歐元就是外匯影響。

Capital distribution, the EUR13 billion, what is the plan around that? As we said, we are waiting for the Sabadell transaction to conclude before we start the pending EUR1 billion, to be specific EUR993 million, of share buyback already approved, already deducted from capital. We're going to start that immediately after the period. And the rest, given the fact that we are accumulating capital, as you see in the document, there will be a continuous flow of distributions back to the shareholders in both forms, depending on where we are. On the SRTs?

資本分配，也就是130億歐元，具體計畫是什麼？正如我們所說，我們正在等待薩瓦德爾交易完成後，再啟動尚未完成的10億歐元（具體來說是9.93億歐元）的股份回購。這筆資金已經獲得批准，已從資本中扣除。我們將在這段時間結束後立即啟動。其餘部分，鑑於我們正在累積資本，正如您在文件中看到的，我們將根據我們目前的狀況，以兩種形式持續向股東分配。關於股東權益信託（SRT）？

Yes. Well, on the SRTs, we expect for the period to be delivering between 30 to 40 basis points of SRT CET1 capital to be generated. So it will depend obviously on the different timings of the deals, but I think that's more or less the run rate that we have expected, pretty much similar to what we've done this year as well.

是的。就SRT而言，我們預計在此期間將產生30至40個基點的SRT CET1資本。因此，這顯然取決於交易的不同時間，但我認為這或多或少是我們預期的運行率，與我們今年的運行率大致相同。

Thank you very much, Hugo. Next question, please.

非常感謝，Hugo。請問下一個問題。

Ignacio Cerezo, UBS.

瑞銀的 Ignacio Cerezo。

One is on the plan, if you can -- there is no basically whether the ROTE you're calculating implied the distribution of the EUR36 billion or you're just distributing the ordinary part of it?

一個是關於計劃的，如果可以的話——基本上沒有，您計算的 ROTE 是否意味著 360 億歐元的分配，或者您只是分配了其中的普通部分？

And the second one is unrelated basically to the plan and the targets. If you can give us your view about the impact that receiving the banking license by no bank actually can have on your Mexican business, specifically on the cost of deposits?

第二個問題基本上與計劃和目標無關。您能否談談，無銀行取得銀行牌照實際上會對您的墨西哥業務，特別是存款成本產生什麼影響？

Very good. On the first one, yes, and we do it at the end of every year, starting from 2026, to be precise, not sure. At the end of every year, starting 2026, we take back the capital level to 12 through distributions of that amount that you mentioned.

非常好。關於第一個問題，是的，我們每年年底都會這樣做，確切地說是從2026年開始，我不確定。從2026年開始，每年年底，我們都會透過您提到的金額分配，將資本水準恢復到12%。

The impact of receiving banking license in New Bank, New Bank is already very active on all dimensions in Mexico. We respect them fully. An amazing competitor, a very good competitor But we have our plans to compete. And so far, in my view, we have been doing really well. I mean, at the moment, they are 1.5% of deposits. They can accumulate deposits. Even today, they have very aggressive offers in the market.

新銀行獲得銀行牌照的影響在於，新銀行在墨西哥的各個領域都非常活躍。我們非常尊重他們。他們是一個了不起的競爭對手，一個非常好的競爭對手。但我們有自己的競爭計劃。到目前為止，在我看來，我們做得非常好。我的意思是，目前他們的存款佔比是1.5%。他們可以累積存款。即使在今天，他們在市場上的報價也非常激進。

The thing that would highlight to you is that that's a competitive advantage of pure price in the deposit game. In our view, it will diminish when rates come down. I mean, they used to pay a year ago 14% to deposits, except this -- which is a specific product, which has a lot of conditions. But in general, they used to pay 14%. And today, except that specific product up to MXP 25,000. If you take that one out, they are now paying 8%.

需要強調的是，這是存款領域純價格的競爭優勢。我們認為，利率下降後，這種優勢會減弱。我的意思是，一年前，他們的存款利率是14%，但這個除外——這是一個特定產品，附帶很多條件。但一般來說，他們以前支付的利率是14%。而今天，除了最高25,000墨西哥比索的特定產品外，如果扣除這個產品，他們現在支付的利率是8%。

And I do think even in the context of we were facing 14% deposits, we have done really well. I keep mentioning this over and over again every call, but about 1/3 of our deposits, 1/3 of our deposits is less than EUR30,000 with an average -- for that bucket with an average deposit size of EUR780, less than EUR1,000. That's the average. We have 44% market share in payrolls in Mexico. As long as we have that advantage, I do think we will be able to compete.

我確實認為，即使在我們面臨14%存款的情況下，我們也做得很好。我每次打電話都會反覆提到這一點，但我們大約三分之一的存款，也就是三分之一的存款低於3萬歐元，平均而言——對於平均存款額為780歐元的群體來說，低於1000歐元。這是平均值。我們在墨西哥的薪資市場佔有44%的份額。只要我們保持這一優勢，我認為我們就有能力競爭。

Thank you very much, Ignacio. Next question, please.

非常感謝，Ignacio。請問下一個問題。

Fernando Gil de Santivanes, Intesa Sanpaolo.

費爾南多·吉爾·德桑蒂瓦內斯，聯合聖保羅銀行。

So the first one is on the assumptions in Spain and rates. I'd see in 2028, the 2.5% rate assumption as a base case. Can you please provide what is the bear case scenario for that rates? And what would be the delta for the -- in the unit?

第一個問題是關於西班牙的利率假設。我認為2028年的利率假設是2.5%，作為基準情況。您能否提供一下該利率的悲觀情景？單位的Delta值是多少？

And the second one is again on Spain. What market share is DBA targeting in terms of products, mortgage business and consumer? And what is the mix in the new production for mortgages between fixed and variable production?

第二個問題同樣是關於西班牙的。 DBA在產品、抵押貸款業務和消費者方面瞄準的市場份額是多少？在新的抵押貸款產品中，固定生產和可變生產的比例是怎樣的？

Fernando, you're asking for the plan of this breakdown for the second half -- this year?

費南多，您問的是今年下半年的具體計畫嗎？

Yes, the plan, sorry, The plan.

是的，計劃，對不起，計劃。

Very good. Should we start with the interest rate, Luisa?

很好。路易莎，我們先從利率開始吧？

Yes. Well, the -- this is actually the base case, as you mentioned, with an expectation of rates, as you see in the annex. We do think that this is going to be the more probable case, maybe the average -- instead of the 2.5, maybe at 2.3. In any case, what I think is more relevant for the question is that we expect the NII sensitivity for the period to be roughly at where we have it now, circa 4%.

是的。嗯，正如您所提到的，這實際上是基準情景，並考慮了利率預期，如附件所示。我們確實認為這將是更可能的情況，也許是平均值——而不是2.5，也許是2.3。無論如何，我認為與這個問題更相關的是，我們預計該時期的NII敏感度將大致與目前的水平持平，約為4%。

So we haven't changed the assumption. And as you know, depending on where actually we see the rates coming, the -- will also position the book for the different scenarios, but the assumption underlying the revenues is circa 4% sensitivity to NII, so through the period.

所以我們沒有改變假設。如你所知，根據我們實際預測的利率走向，也會根據不同的情境調整帳簿，但收入對NII的敏感度假設是在整個期間約為4%。

So if you have a different curve in your mind, once again, Fernando, 100 basis points of a decline in rate. For the next 12 months, step function change in the interest rates would lead to a 4% decline in the NII, and that's the sensitivity that we keep for the period as well.

所以，費爾南多，如果你心裡想的是一條不同的曲線，利率下降100個基點，那麼在接下來的12個月裡，利率的階躍函數變化將導致國民保險資訊收入下降4%，這也是我們在此期間保持的敏感度。

Regarding the products and the growth, the key area of -- the key areas that we have highlighted for growth for us is once again enterprises. Similar to Mexico that I mentioned before, we have an underrepresentation in terms of market share in the enterprise segment. Especially this midsize companies and SMEs, we have room to go on that one. So we are expecting higher growth in the plan, especially in that area and consumer always, which is important to us.

關於產品和成長，我們強調的關鍵成長領域仍然是企業市場。與我之前提到的墨西哥類似，我們在企業市場的佔有率偏低。尤其是在中型企業和中小企業市場，我們還有提升空間。因此，我們預計未來計劃將實現更高的成長，尤其是在企業市場和消費者市場，這對我們來說至關重要。

We have 17% market share, for example, in acquiring, 16.1% market share in cards. All of that has to flow a bit more to our consumer lending book. The only thing that I would say is, as we are seeing this year, if you look into this year, the only product that we are losing market share is mortgages. And in the plan, we assume that softness to continue because it's a very competitive product in terms of price.

例如，我們在收單業務中擁有17%的市場份額，在信用卡業務中擁有16.1%的市場份額。所有這些都會更多地流向我們的消費貸款業務。我唯一想說的是，正如我們今年所看到的，如果你回顧今年的情況，你會發現我們唯一一個市場份額正在下降的產品是抵押貸款。在計劃中，我們假設這種疲軟態勢將持續下去，因為抵押貸款在價格方面非常具有競爭力。

And at these price levels, as you have seen again this year so far, we don't see the reason to grow too much in that area. So we are only losing market share in mortgages. Everywhere else, we are gaining market share, and we expect that trend to continue also throughout the plan period.

就目前的價格水平而言，正如大家今年迄今為止再次看到的，我們認為該領域沒有理由大幅增長。因此，我們只在抵押貸款領域失去了市場份額。在其他領域，我們的市場份額正在成長，我們預計這一趨勢在整個計劃期間都將持續下去。

So thank you very much, Fernando. There are no further questions in the line. So thank you, everyone, for joining this audio webcast. Just a reminder that the IR team is at your disposal for any questions. I hope you have a great summer, and enjoy your holidays. Thank you.

非常感謝費爾南多。目前沒有其他問題了。感謝大家收聽本次音訊網路直播。提醒一下，IR 團隊隨時準備好解答您的任何問題。祝大家有個愉快的夏天，享受美好的假期。謝謝。