Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining BBVA's fourth quarter results presentation.

歡迎大家，感謝大家參加 BBVA 第四季業績報告。

I'm joined today by our CEO, Onur Genc, and Luisa Gomez Bravo, the Group CFO.

今天與我一起出席的還有我們的執行長 Onur Genc 和集團財務長 Luisa Gomez Bravo。

As in previous quarters, Onur will start discussing the group figures, and then Luisa will go through the business areas.

與前幾季一樣，Onur 將開始討論集團數據，然後 Luisa 將介紹業務領域。

Finally, we will open the line to receive your questions.

最後，我們將開通熱線接收您的提問。

Thank you very much for participating.

非常感謝您的參與。

And now, I turn the call over for -- to Onur.

現在，我將發言權交給奧努爾。

Thank you, Patricia.

謝謝你，帕特里夏。

Good morning to everyone.

大家早安。

Welcome, and thank you for joining BBVA's 2024 full year results audio webcast.

歡迎您，感謝您收聽 BBVA 2024 年全年業績音訊網路廣播。

We have a relatively long presentation today because it's the annual presentation, but we do have a commitment to all of you that we will start the Q&A, which is the most interesting part of this session.

今天的演講相對較長，因為這是年度演講，但我們向所有人承諾，我們將開始問答環節，這是本次會議最有趣的部分。

So I'm going to do some of the pages very quick, but I'll start directly with Page 3.

因此我將快速完成一些頁面，但我將直接從第 3 頁開始。

This is the summary for the coming pages.

這是接下來頁面的摘要。

I'll spend a little bit more time on this one.

我將在這個問題上多花一點時間。

But last year, basically, our focus was on accelerating profitable growth.

但去年，我們基本上專注於加速獲利成長。

And I'm very happy to say that in 2024, we continued delivering on this, on profitable growth, obtaining the best figures over the last decade in growth, in profitability, in strategic metrics, and also in the shareholders distribution.

我很高興地說，到 2024 年，我們將繼續實現這一目標，實現獲利成長，並在成長、獲利、策略指標和股東分配方面取得過去十年來最好的成績。

Following the page, first, at the top, I want to highlight the outstanding value creation and profitability metrics achieved, 17.2% growth of tangible book value per share plus dividends, even in a context of market headwinds, as you all know, and return on tangible equity at 19.7%.

在這一頁之後，首先，在頂部，我想強調一下所實現的突出的價值創造和盈利指標，即使在市場逆風的背景下，每股有形賬面價值加上股息仍增長了 17.2％，有形股本回報率達到 19.7％。

We have also continued with a very positive trend in net attributable profit, passing, for the first time, obviously, the EUR10 billion threshold and growing our earnings per share by 28% in the last year.

我們的淨利潤也繼續保持非常積極的趨勢，顯然首次突破了 100 億歐元的門檻，並且去年每股收益增長了 28%。

Secondly, one of the best ways that we can continue to contribute to our stakeholders and the society is through our activity, our activity of lending and beyond, and basically through growing our business in a way that is profitable.

其次，我們能夠繼續為利害關係人和社會做出貢獻的最佳方式之一是透過我們的活動、我們的貸款活動和其他活動，以及基本上透過以獲利的方式發展我們的業務。

That's why you see the first block that we are delivering on the profitability metrics, but also creating value in this process.

這就是為什麼您會看到我們在獲利指標上交付的第一個區塊，同時也在這個過程中創造了價值。

In that sense, we have increased our loan portfolio by an exceptional 14.3%, and we have acquired a record of 11.4 million new customers, enlargening our client franchise.

從這個意義上講，我們的貸款組合成長了 14.3%，並且創下了 1,140 萬新客戶的記錄，擴大了我們的客戶特許經營權。

Third, the financial results we see today drive from the progress in the execution of our strategy on the strategic metrics. 2024 was also an exceptional year. 75% of our clients interacted with us through our award-winning mobile app.

第三，我們今天看到的財務表現源自於我們在策略指標上執行策略的進展。 2024年也是不平凡的一年。 75% 的客戶透過我們屢獲殊榮的行動應用程式與我們互動。

And we also continue benefiting from being pioneers in sustainability.

作為永續發展領域的先驅者，我們也持續受益。

In 2024, we channeled almost EUR100 billion in sustainable business.

2024年，我們將向永續業務注入近1,000億歐元。

And last but not least, all of this is allowing us to significantly increase distributions to our shareholders for a total amount of EUR5 billion, while at the same time, our CET1 ratio remains comfortably above our target.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，這一切使我們能夠大幅增加對股東的分配，總額達到 50 億歐元，同時，我們的 CET1 比率仍遠高於我們的目標。

The payout of EUR5 billion is equivalent to EUR0.87 per share divided into two parts.

50 億歐元的股利分為兩部分，相當於每股 0.87 歐元。

First, the total cash dividend will be EUR0.70 per share, and the rest amounting to EUR993 million, It will be executed in a new share buyback program.

首先，總現金股利為每股0.70歐元，其餘9.93億歐元將在新的股票回購計畫中執行。

And we have some positive news to share here that the CNMV, the markets authority of Spain, they have lifted the restriction on our share buybacks going forward as they see no impediment in the context of the Sabadell transaction.

我們在這裡分享一些積極的消息，即西班牙市場管理局 CNMV 已取消了對我們未來股票回購的限制，因為他們認為薩瓦德爾交易中不存在任何障礙。

So we will get going on this program as soon as we can.

因此我們將盡快啟動該計劃。

Page number 4, our tangible details now on the -- that I have already highlighted to you in the cover page, but important details.

第 4 頁，我們現在的具體細節——我已經在封面上向您強調過了，但這些細節很重要。

So on Page number 4, our tangible book value per share plus dividends, it continues showing an outstanding evolution.

因此，在第 4 頁上，我們的每股有形帳面價值加上股息，繼續顯示出出色的變化。

Again, despite relatively high currency depreciation, especially in Mexican peso this year, we delivered 17.2% growth in tangible book value.

同樣，儘管今年貨幣貶值幅度相對較大（尤其是墨西哥比索），但我們的有形帳面價值仍成長了 17.2%。

Beyond that, I want to remind you -- yes, beyond the annual figure, I want to remind you of the long-term trend in value creation.

除此之外，我想提醒你——是的，除了年度數據之外，我還想提醒你價值創造的長期趨勢。

Since 2021, our tangible book value per share plus dividends every single year has increased quite nicely, with an average compounded annual growth rate of 18.1% in these -- in this period of four years.

自 2021 年以來，我們每年的每股有形帳面價值加上股息都實現了相當不錯的成長，這四年的平均年複合成長率為 18.1%。

And regarding profitability, we continue to improve our excellent profitability metrics, reaching, again, 19.7% in return on tangible equity and 18.9% in return on equity, again, best figures over the past decade.

至於獲利能力方面，我們持續改善我們優秀的獲利指標，有形資產回報率再次達到19.7%，股本回報率達到18.9%，再次創下過去十年的最佳數字。

Going to slide number 5.

轉到第 5 張投影片。

As I always say, the best measure of our performance is the one that we compare ourselves to competitors.

正如我常說的，衡量我們表現的最佳標準就是將自己與競爭對手進行比較。

In all the key financial metrics, we have done better than our competitors, as you see on the page.

正如您在頁面上看到的，在所有關鍵財務指標上，我們都做得比競爭對手更好。

One more year we remain clearly one of the most value creating, most profitable, and most efficient European banks out there.

再過一年，我們仍然無疑是歐洲最具價值創造能力、獲利能力最強、效率最高的銀行之一。

Then slide number 6.

然後是第 6 張投影片。

Same theme, but I love the cosmetics of this page, at least.

相同的主題，但至少我喜歡這個頁面的外觀。

As in the beginning of the last year, we wanted to put our profile into the picture.

就像去年年初一樣，我們想將我們的形象融入圖片中。

So you see here, basically on Chart 6, on the x-axis, you see the return on tangible equity as a profitability metric and on the y-axis, you show the 2024 loan growth rate in current euros.

因此，您可以在圖 6 中看到，x 軸上顯示的是有形資產回報率作為獲利能力指標，y 軸上顯示的是 2024 年貸款成長率（以當前歐元計算）。

And you do see our unique profile as the page displays.

當頁面顯示時，您就會看到我們獨特的資料。

We stand out in terms of growth, we stand out in terms of profitability, and our clear intention is to continue on this path.

我們在成長方面脫穎而出，在獲利方面脫穎而出，我們的明確意圖是繼續沿著這條道路前進。

Slide number 7.

投影片編號 7。

You can see the very positive trend in our net attributable profit, surpassing the EUR10 billion threshold, which means doubling our results in three years and growing 25% from the previous year.

您可以看到我們的淨利潤呈現非常積極的趨勢，超過了100億歐元的門檻，這意味著我們的業績在三年內翻了一番，比前一年增長了25％。

These results, they bring our earnings per share up to EUR1.68, an increase of 28% year-over-year, higher than the growth of the net attributable profit.

這些結果使我們的每股收益達到 1.68 歐元，年增 28%，高於淨利潤的成長。

Thanks to the share buyback program that we executed in 2024.

感謝我們在 2024 年實施的股票回購計畫。

Slide number 8, the growth of our business through which we create a positive impact on the society.

第 8 張投影片展示了我們的業務成長，我們對社會產生了積極的影響。

We have increased our loan book significantly by 14.3% in the last year.

去年，我們的貸款餘額大幅增加了14.3%。

Again, it sounds like a very high level number, but when you deep dive into it, this implies -- this growth implies that during 2024, we helped more than 160,000 families buy their homes.

再說一次，這聽起來像是一個非常高的數字，但當你深入研究它時，這意味著——這種增長意味著在 2024 年，我們幫助超過 16 萬個家庭購買了房屋。

We supported more than 715,000 SMEs and self-employed individuals, and around 70,000 larger corporates in financing their own growth and establishing new businesses, in the process, some of them were establishing new businesses.

我們支持超過 715,000 家中小企業和自僱人士以及約 70,000 家大型企業為其自身發展和創辦新企業提供融資，其中一些企業正在創辦新企業。

As we grow our activity, we believe we promote investment, employment, and welfare in the society.

隨著我們業務的拓展，我們相信我們將促進社會的投資、就業和福利。

Moving to Page number 9, talking a little bit about our strategic metrics, new customer acquisition.

轉到第 9 頁，稍微討論一下我們的策略指標、新客戶獲取。

As we keep reiterating every single call, expanding our customer base, it will allow us to continue growing our business in a healthy and profitable way, in a healthy way.

隨著我們不斷重申每一個呼籲，擴大我們的客戶群，它將使我們能夠繼續以健康、有利可圖的方式發展我們的業務。

That's the only way that you create growth without creating too much cost of risk.

這是在不產生太多風險成本的情況下實現成長的唯一方法。

And in 2024, we have set a new all-time record of new customer acquisition with 11.4 million gross new customers.

2024 年，我們新增客戶數創下歷史新高，達到 1,140 萬人。

It is impressive to maintain this velocity in our view because year-after-year -- because given the fact that we are already one of the largest banks in the countries that we are in and the pool is lower and lower every year, but we keep maintaining this momentum.

在我們看來，保持這樣的速度令人印象深刻，因為年復一年——因為考慮到我們已經是我們所在國家最大的銀行之一，而且資金池每年都在減少，但我們仍然保持著這種勢頭。

It is important also to follow the depth of the relationship with these new customers.

專注於與這些新客戶的關係深度也很重要。

With a clear focus on cross-selling, especially to this new group of customers, we have now grown to more than 77 million active customers as of end of 2024, compared to 52.6 million customers at the end of 2018.

透過明確專注於交叉銷售，特別是針對這個新客戶群，截至 2024 年底，我們已擁有超過 7,700 萬活躍客戶，而 2018 年底的客戶數量為 5,260 萬。

So we increased our customer franchise by 47% in this period, and this is across the segments.

因此，我們在此期間將客戶特許經營權增加了 47％，並且這一數字涵蓋了各個部門。

You only see here the full numbers for the whole bank, but across segments, you see a very similar profile.

在這裡，您只能看到整個銀行的完整數據，但對於各個部門而言，您會看到非常相似的概況。

And maybe one more thing to highlight in this page, this accomplishment was only possible because of the digital strategy.

也許本頁還有一點要強調，這項成就只有在數位策略的幫助下才有可能實現。

I mean, you see it in the line in the chart, the share of digital customer acquisition, it increased from 21% in 2019 to 66% in 2024.

我的意思是，您可以在圖表中看到，數位客戶獲取的份額從 2019 年的 21% 增加到 2024 年的 66%。

That is our -- in our view, one of our key differences versus most of our competitors out there.

我們認為，這是我們與大多數競爭對手的主要區別之一。

On slide number 10, continuing with our strategic pillars, our digital strategy.

在第 10 張投影片上，繼續討論我們的策略支柱，也就是我們的數位策略。

Complementing our people capacity, it proved to be essential and differential in serving our customer base.

它補充了我們的人員能力，事實證明，它在服務我們的客戶群方面至關重要且與眾不同。

On the left-hand side of the slide, our mobile penetration rate, that is the share of clients that use their phones consistently in their relationship with BBVA, it has increased from 51% to a record high 75% penetration rate.

幻燈片左側表示我們的行動普及率，即在與 BBVA 合作期間持續使用手機的客戶比例，該普及率已從 51% 上升至創紀錄的 75%。

And at the same time, our clients are much more active digitally, as you can see also in the bottom left corner of the page.

同時，我們的客戶在數位領域中更加活躍，正如您在頁面左下角看到的那樣。

Since 2020, we have doubled the amount of logins per month and multiplied by 2.5 times the amount of transactions in our global mobile app.

自 2020 年以來，我們全球行動應用程式的每月登入量增加了一倍，交易量增加了 2.5 倍。

And I say global mobile app because, as practically all of our countries, they now share the same app, reutilize design and certain software components, hence, enabling efficiency.

我之所以說全球行動應用程序，是因為實際上我們所有國家現在都共享相同的應用程序，重複使用設計和某些軟體組件，從而提高了效率。

Investing in our people, coupled with our industry-leading digital capabilities, it translated into, obviously, higher client satisfaction.

對員工的投資，加上我們在業界領先的數位能力，顯然會提高客戶滿意度。

As you can see in the right-hand side of the slide, the customer satisfaction measured by the net promoter score, it improved by 10 percentage points in the last five years, clear leadership positions in our core countries and clear leadership positions across the Board.

正如您在投影片右側看到的，以淨推薦值衡量的客戶滿意度在過去五年中提高了 10 個百分點，我們核心國家的領導地位清晰，整個董事會的領導地位也清晰。

Turning to slide number 11, sustainability, another cornerstone of our strategy.

我們來看第 11 張投影片，永續性，這是我們策略的另一個基石。

As I've said many times in the past, sustainability is an incredible business opportunity, and we are trendsetters in this area.

正如我過去多次說過的，永續發展是一個令人難以置信的商業機會，而我們是這一領域的潮流引領者。

As you can see in this page, we accelerated in mobilizing sustainable business with more than EUR99 billion channeled only in 2024.

正如您在本頁所看到的，我們加速調動永續業務，光在 2024 年就投入了超過 990 億歐元。

This has allowed us to beat our cumulative 2018-2025 goal of EUR300 billion, One year earlier than expected.

這使我們提前一年超額完成了2018-2025年累計3000億歐元的目標。

And on the right-hand side of the page, we also continue advancing in our portfolio alignment commitments, having reduced by 27% the emissions in our committed portfolios, advancing faster than our target, as you can see in the page.

在頁面的右側，我們也繼續推進我們的投資組合協調承諾，我們承諾的投資組合中的排放量減少了 27%，進展速度比我們的目標要快，正如您在頁面中看到的那樣。

And this is the result of our efforts to walk the decarbonization path together with our clients and, obviously, offering the required advisory in the process.

這是我們與客戶共同努力走脫碳之路的結果，當然，我們也在過程中提供必要的建議。

Slide 12.

幻燈片 12。

From this slide on, I'm going to walk you very quickly through the financials, but -- very quickly.

從這張投影片開始，我將帶大家快速了解財務狀況，但是──非常快。

So let me not spend too much time on this page as it's a summary of the pages to follow, but I will talk to you about revenue, costs, asset quality and capital.

因此，我不會在這個頁面上花費太多時間，因為它是後續頁面的摘要，但我會和你討論收入、成本、資產品質和資本。

So moving to slide 13, the annual P&L.

現在轉到第 13 張投影片，即年度損益表。

I would just like to highlight the excellent evolution of gross and operating income, growing 20% and 24% in current euros, respectively.

我只想強調總收入和營業收入的出色表現，以當前歐元計算，分別成長了 20％ 和 24％。

Slide 14, the P&L for the fourth quarter.

投影片 14，第四季的損益表。

I will not, again, stop [long] here either, but just to remark on the strong quarterly performance with the net attributable profit above the EUR2.4 billion mark, driven by the good performance in core revenues, which is very important to us, great NII performance, even stronger fee income evolution, fees growing 27% in constant year-over-year.

我不會在這裡長篇大論，只是想評論一下強勁的季度業績，淨歸屬利潤超過 24 億歐元，這得益於核心收入的良好表現，這對我們非常重要，NII 表現優異，費用收入增長更為強勁，費用同比增長 27%。

The quarter-over-quarter comparison explained, as you can see also in the page, but lower results in NTI, net trading income, and the increase in the expenses, explained by the higher variable compensation to our employees due to our outstanding results, for which we always do the adjustment in the fourth quarter, as you all know.

正如您在頁面中所看到的，季度環比比較結果有所解釋，但 NTI 的結果、淨交易收入有所下降，而費用有所增加，這是因為我們出色的業績導致員工的浮動薪酬增加，對此我們總是在第四季度進行調整，正如大家所知。

Moving to Slide number 15, also to highlight some positive signals for the future.

轉到投影片 15，也強調了未來的一些正面訊號。

I want to highlight very positive activity dynamics in our two largest markets, Spain and Mexico.

我想強調我們最大的兩個市場西班牙和墨西哥的非常積極的活動動態。

On the left-hand side of the slide, you can see the strong loan growth in both Spain and especially in Mexico.

在幻燈片的左側，您可以看到西班牙和墨西哥的貸款強勁增長。

In the case of Spain, we have wonderful news to share because loan growth has improved compared to last year to an excellent 4.1%, and within our most profitable segments, Consumer and Credit Cards growing at 6.8%, mid-sized companies growing at 6.3%.

就西班牙而言，我們有個好消息要分享，因為貸款成長率與去年相比有所提高，達到了優異的 4.1%，而我們最賺錢的領域中，消費者和信用卡成長率為 6.8%，中型公司成長率為 6.3%。

It's good news because after so many years of deleveraging, we are finally seeing good loan growth in Spain.

這是個好消息，因為經過這麼多年的去槓桿，我們終於看到西班牙的貸款成長良好。

In Mexico, loan growth has also accelerated versus last year to 15.8% year-over-year with high-margin Consumer and Credit Cards, again, growing 15.6%, SMEs growing 19.8%, excellent figures in my view.

在墨西哥，貸款成長也較去年同期加速至 15.8%，其中高利潤的消費者和信用卡貸款再次成長 15.6%，中小企業貸款成長 19.8%，在我看來，這是非常好的數字。

And then on the right-hand side, looking at customer funds in both Spain and Mexico, again, a positive picture, strong growth figures in both countries.

然後在右側，查看西班牙和墨西哥的客戶資金，再次看到積極的景象，兩個國家都呈現強勁的成長數據。

In particular as last quarter, I would like to draw your attention to off-balance sheet funds, which is on the most right-hand side of the page.

特別是在上個季度，我想提請大家注意位於頁面最右側的表外基金。

We are growing even better here.

我們在這裡發展得更好。

In the long-term, as you all know, these funds provide higher customer satisfaction, are much more sticky, they grow faster, leading to strong postings in our fee income line.

從長遠來看，眾所周知，這些基金的客戶滿意度更高，黏性更強，成長速度更快，從而為我們的費用收入帶來了強勁的成長。

Again, this page, in my view, is very good news for the coming quarters as the positive dynamics in activity, that you see on the page, will provide future strength for BBVA.

再次，我認為，這個頁面對於未來幾季來說是個好消息，因為您在頁面上看到的積極活動動態將為 BBVA 提供未來的力量。

Moving to Slide number 16.

移至投影片 16。

Again, regarding our activity growth, it's always good to compare with competitors.

再次，關於我們的活動成長，與競爭對手進行比較總是好的。

So it's not the growth of the industry per se, but it's also the fact that we are outperforming our competitors in activity, which we think is important.

因此，這並不是產業本身的成長，而是我們在活動上勝過競爭對手的事實，我們認為這是很重要的。

And as you see in the bubbled numbers in the page, we have gained market share in loans in practically all of our markets in 2024, and all with quite nice gains.

正如您在頁面上的氣泡數字中所看到的，到 2024 年，我們在幾乎所有市場的貸款市場份額都得到了增長，並且都獲得了相當可觀的收益。

And even more remarkable, in my view, is the trend.

在我看來，更引人注目的是這一趨勢。

When you look into the trend we have followed in the last few years, again, we have leading franchises, and we keep improving on the strength of our franchises.

如果回顧過去幾年我們遵循的趨勢，就會發現我們擁有領先的特許經營權，並且我們不斷提升特許經營權的實力。

Slide 17, on costs.

第 17 張投影片，關於成本。

I would like to highlight the fact once again that as this is part of our DNA, we always look into jaws.

我想再次強調這一事實，由於這是我們 DNA 的一部分，所以我們總是關注下顎。

We end the year with positive jaws.

我們以正面的情緒結束這一年。

Gross income growing 25%, clearly more than costs.

總收入成長25%，明顯超過成本。

Then, on the right-hand side of the slide, our efficiency ratio.

然後，幻燈片的右側是我們的效率比率。

It remains one of the best among our European peers, improving again this year 226 basis points to 40%.

它仍然是歐洲同行中最好的之一，今年再次提高了 226 個基點，達到 40%。

Slide 18, the evolution of our asset quality.

投影片 18，我們的資產品質的演變。

They remain in line with our expectations, in the context of the activity growth in the most profitable segments, clearly within our expectations.

它們仍然符合我們的預期，在最賺錢細分市場活動成長的背景下，這顯然在我們的預期之內。

But on the -- maybe on the cost of risk, on the left-hand side of the slide at the bottom, cost of risk, again, stable at 143 basis points.

但在風險成本方面，在幻燈片底部左側，風險成本再次穩定在 143 個基點。

Then, NPL and coverage ratio, at the right bottom of the slide.

然後，不良貸款和覆蓋率位於幻燈片的右下角。

They improved, underpinned by activity growth.

在活動成長的支撐下，它們取得了進步。

NPL entries decelerating in most geographies, like Spain, Spain mortgages with the help of declining rates, higher recoveries, and we also did some NPL portfolio sales.

在大多數地區，不良貸款的進入都在減少，例如西班牙，在西班牙抵押貸款利率下降、回收率提高的幫助下，我們也進行了一些不良貸款組合銷售。

And the coverage ratio, as you see there, it increased to 80%.

正如您所看到的，覆蓋率增加到了 80%。

Slide 19.

幻燈片 19。

On capital, we have generated 4 basis points CET1 ratio in the quarter, leading to a CET1 ratio of 12.88%.

在資本方面，我們本季的 CET1 比率上升了 4 個基點，使 CET1 比率達到 12.88%。

This is a quarter where we have had significant market impacts, and we had exceptional growth of our loan book, but despite that growth in the CET1 ratio.

本季度，我們受到了重大的市場影響，儘管 CET1 比率有所增長，但我們的貸款帳簿仍實現了異常增長。

But if you follow the waterfall, first, our results, they contribute 64 basis points, then the dividend accrual and AT1 coupons detracting 35 basis points.

但是，如果按照瀑布圖來看，首先，我們的結果貢獻了 64 個基點，然後是股息應計和 AT1 息票扣除了 35 個基點。

Then third in the waterfall, you see minus 18 basis points due to RWA's growth.

然後，在瀑布圖中第三部分，由於 RWA 的成長，您會看到負 18 個基點。

This figure embeds, again, for yet another quarter, our ability to grow.

這個數字再次體現了我們下一個季度的成長能力。

We grew 5.2% growth in loan book quarter-after-quarter in the fourth quarter, a strong quarterly growth.

我們的第四季度貸款餘額環比增長 5.2%，這是一個強勁的季度增長。

But on top of that, this result is the outcome of several management actions undertaken to optimize our capital actions that we have been working on during these past few months, and now we have started implementing in the last quarter, including significant risk transfers, other balance sheet rotation measures.

但除此之外，這一結果是我們過去幾個月致力於優化資本行動而採取的幾項管理行動的結果，現在我們已經在上個季度開始實施，包括重大風險轉移和其他資產負債表輪調措施。

In total, the contribution from these management measures has been close to 20 basis points in the quarter, and half of this was related to SRTs and securitizations.

總體而言，這些管理措施在本季的貢獻接近 20 個基點，其中一半與 SRT 和證券化有關。

And lastly, in the waterfall, you have the (inaudible) others, minus 7 basis points, which mainly comprises the market-related impacts, which have been, again, relatively high this quarter, mainly related to dollar -- the dollar appreciation and the mark-to-market of the held to collect and sell portfolios.

最後，在瀑布圖中，還有（聽不清楚）其他，減去 7 個基點，主要包括與市場相關的影響，本季度這些影響再次相對較高，主要與美元有關——美元升值和持有的收集和出售投資組合的市價。

And this is partially compensated by the credit in OCI that accounting-wise, as you know, neutralizes the deduction in the P&L of the hyperinflationary countries.

這部分地由 OCI 的信用來補償，正如你所知，從會計角度來看，它抵消了惡性通貨膨脹國家損益表中的扣除額。

Lastly, it's not in the page, but we achieved 21 basis points year-over-year increase in the CET1 ratio.

最後，雖然內容沒有寫清楚，但我們的 CET1 比率比去年同期成長了 21 個基點。

This was accomplished in a challenging currency environment, as you all know, and in the context of extraordinary growth in our lending book.

眾所周知，這是在充滿挑戰的貨幣環境中以及我們的貸款業務實現非凡增長的背景下實現的。

I repeat this because it's important that you -- it's in the footnote, I think, but you do see that RWA growth in constant euros, it consumed 156 basis points in 2024, while that same consumption was 132 basis points last year and 101 basis points in 2022.

我重複這一點是因為這很重要——我想是在腳註中，但您確實看到，以不變歐元計算的 RWA 增長在 2024 年消耗了 156 個基點，而去年的消耗為 132 個基點，2022 年為 101 個基點。

It is actually wonderful to have this growth because we make sure that this is profitable growth, which then implies that we are hatching future capital returns already with such use of capital.

要實現這種成長其實是一件非常好的事情，因為我們確保這是獲利性成長，這意味著，透過這樣的資本使用，我們已經在孵化未來的資本回報。

And finally, on the page, there is a bubble at the top.

最後，在頁面頂部有一個氣泡。

You see that one more positive news.

您看這又是一個正面的消息。

It's important to note that the final details of Basel IV basically came out, and we now expect no negative CET1 ratio impact from Basel IV in 2025.

值得注意的是，巴塞爾協議 IV 的最終細節已基本出爐，我們目前預計 2025 年巴塞爾協議 IV 不會對 CET1 比率產生負面影響。

Slide 20, shareholders distributions, in line with our payout policy.

投影片 20，股東分配，符合我們的支付政策。

I'm very happy to announce once again that the proposal to be sent to the governing bodies contemplates the distribution of a total amount of EUR5 billion for 2024, equivalent to 50% payout at the maximum end of our distribution policy.

我很高興再次宣布，即將提交給理事機構的提案考慮在 2024 年分配總計 50 億歐元的資金，相當於我們分配政策最高派息率的 50%。

This is a 25% more payout as compared to last year.

與去年相比，這筆支出增加了 25%。

This payout is equivalent to a total shareholder remuneration of EUR0.87 per share, as I mentioned at the beginning, a total cash dividend of EUR0.70 which is 27% higher than last year, which implies that EUR0.41 per share to be paid in April 2025, complementing the EUR0.29 per share interim cash dividend we did back in October 2024.

此次派息相當於每股 0.87 歐元的股東總薪酬，正如我在開頭提到的那樣，總現金股息為 0.70 歐元，比去年高出 27%，這意味著 2025 年 4 月將支付每股 0.41 歐元，以補充我們在 2024 年 10 月派發的每股 0.29 歐元的中期股息。

In addition to the cash dividend, we will be proposing once again a new share buyback program of EUR993 million, equivalent to 1.6% of BBVA's latest market cap.

除了現金紅利外，我們還將再次提出一項新的 9.93 億歐元的股票回購計劃，相當於 BBVA 最新市值的 1.6%。

And I repeat again, the positive news here that CNMV, the markets authority of Spain, has lifted the restriction on our share buybacks.

我再次重複一遍，這裡的好消息是，西班牙市場管理局 CNMV 已經取消了對我們股票回購的限制。

As such, after the required authorizations from the governing bodies and from ECB, which presumably should not take too long given the fact that this is part of our regular payout, we will be able to start executing this share buyback in the coming weeks.

因此，在獲得管理機構和歐洲央行的必要授權後，我們將能夠在未來幾週內開始執行此次股票回購，考慮到這是我們定期支出的一部分，這應該不會花費太長時間。

Slide 21, and I need to pick up some time.

第 21 張投影片，我需要花點時間。

So very quickly going beyond the annual results, I would like to report back on the final numbers around our long-term 2021-2024 strategic goals.

因此，除了年度業績之外，我還想快速報告我們 2021-2024 年長期策略目標的最終數據。

In short, again, let me not go into details, but I'm very proud of our teams.

簡而言之，我再說一遍，我不想說得太詳細，但我對我們的團隊感到非常自豪。

I'm very happy to say that we clearly outperformed every single one of the originally established goals of the last Investor Day, and as you can see with quite sizable positive beats in every single one of them.

我很高興地說，我們明顯超越了上一屆投資者日最初設定的每一個目標，而且正如你所看到的，每個目標都取得了相當大的積極進展。

Slide 22.

投影片 22。

For this same period of 2021-2024, I would like to explain the generation and use of capital to you.

對於 2021-2024 年這段時期，我想向大家解釋一下資本的產生與使用。

This page is very important to us.

這個頁面對我們非常重要。

As you know very well, we always have tangible book value, capital creation, value creation in our presentations.

如您所知，我們的簡報中總是有有形帳面價值、資本創造和價值創造。

But more importantly, at the core of our management discipline, because this metric, not just pure profit, this metric shows the real value added to our shareholders.

但更重要的是，這是我們管理紀律的核心，因為這個指標不僅僅是純利潤，這個指標顯示了我們為股東增加的真正價值。

So in that sense, we put this page to show you that in this period of 2021-2024, we have generated a cumulative total of EUR35.6 billion of capital.

因此從這個意義上講，我們設置這個頁面是為了向您展示，在 2021-2024 年期間，我們累計創造了 356 億歐元的資本。

And as you can see in this slide, what did we do with this capital generation?

正如您在這張投影片中看到的，我們用這些資本做了什麼？

First, we have continued investing in the future capital generation capacity of the group, mainly by growing our business, our loan book, in a profitable way, and I underscore profitable once again here, which consumed EUR13.2 billion of capital.

首先，我們繼續投資於集團未來的資本創造能力，主要是透過以盈利的方式發展我們的業務和貸款帳簿，我在這裡再次強調盈利，這消耗了 132 億歐元的資本。

Second, we have been accumulating excess capital, as shown in the increase of our CET1 ratio since 2021, in the amount of EUR4.2 billion.

其次，我們一直在累積過剩資本，這體現在我們的 CET1 比率自 2021 年以來增加了 42 億歐元。

And third, in total, the shareholder distribution would be EUR18.3 billion cumulative since 2021, EUR11.9 billion of that in cash dividends and the rest EUR6.4 billion in share buybacks.

第三，整體來看，自2021年以來，股東分配累計將達183億歐元，其中119億歐元為現金股息，其餘64億歐元為股票回購。

It's a wonderful page in my view, and I remind you that we have actually delivered more capital in four years than the market capitalization of the bank at the beginning of this period.

在我看來，這是一個精彩的頁面，我提醒你們，我們實際上在四年內提供的資本已經超過了該銀行在此期間初期的市值。

In short, I mean, combining it with the previous page, the last strategic cycle for us has been a clear case of successful implementation in our view.

簡而言之，我的意思是，結合上一頁，我們認為上一個策略週期顯然是成功實施的案例。

And now comes the new strategic cycle covering the 2025-2029 period.

現在進入了2025-2029年的新戰略週期。

In that context, I do one final page, and I give it to Luisa.

在這種背景下，我完成了最後一頁，並將其交給了路易莎。

The final page is our new strategic plan.

最後一頁是我們的新策略計劃。

We wanted to give you a first glimpse on the work that we have just finalized regarding our strategic priorities covering the next five years.

我們想讓您初步了解我們剛剛確定的未來五年策略重點的工作。

We based our new strategic priorities, obviously, on the key opportunities presented by the secular trends surrounding our sector, but also some key areas that we want to upgrade our delivery even more, even more.

顯然，我們的新策略重點是基於我們所在產業的長期趨勢所帶來的關鍵機遇，但也是基於我們希望進一步提升交付水準的一些關鍵領域。

In that sense, starting from the left-hand side, we want to elevate our aspiration to incorporate the client perspective in everything that any team member of BBVA does, define an industry-leading customer service and satisfaction standard and deliver every day, in and out, against this golden standard.

從這個意義上講，從左側開始，我們希望提升我們的願望，將客戶視角融入 BBVA 任何團隊成員所做的每一件事中，定義行業領先的客戶服務和滿意度標準，並在每一天中都按照這個黃金標準行事。

I mean, you have seen that we have improved our customer satisfaction levels significantly in the past five years, but we believe we can do more.

我的意思是，您已經看到，我們在過去五年中顯著提高了客戶滿意度，但我們相信我們可以做得更多。

And beyond concepts, very tangible.

並且超越了概念，非常具體。

We have defined clear action areas through which we believe we can deliver more and exceptional client service, so we will work on this.

我們已經確定了明確的行動領域，我們相信透過這些領域我們可以提供更多、更卓越的客戶服務，因此我們將為此努力。

Moving to the center of the page, we will continue to drive profitable growth, first, through leveraging sustainability as a business opportunity; second, we will invest more and increase more the value contribution coming from the enterprise segments; and finally, at the center block, I would highlight this new theme around value and capital creation mindset.

接下來是頁面中心，我們將繼續推動獲利成長，首先，透過利用永續性作為商業機會；第二，我們將加大投入，提升來自企業板塊的價值貢獻。最後，在中心部分，我將重點放在圍繞價值和資本創造思維的新主題。

Big or small, in our daily decisions, I mean, we should further acknowledge that capital is our scarce resource, and we are here to deliver above the cost of that capital.

無論大小，在我們的日常決策中，我的意思是，我們應該進一步認識到資本是我們稀缺的資源，而我們要做的就是提供高於資本成本的服務。

For example, I mean, in every single loan that we give, the acknowledgment at all levels that we are parking aside a certain amount of capital which should then yield a certain level of return, is critical.

舉個例子，我的意思是，在我們提供的每一筆貸款中，各個層面都要確認我們留出了一定數量的資本，這些資本隨後應該產生一定程度的回報，這是至關重要的。

And we are going to elevate the importance of this throughout the organization.

我們將在整個組織內提升此議題的重視程度。

And lastly, on the right side of the page, the enablers-to get it done.

最後，在頁面的右側，是完成任務的推動因素。

We will unlock the strong potential of AI and innovation through improving the availability of data and next gen technologies, and we will continue to invest in our teams, as always, who are, obviously, the real actors to achieve anything, anything in our business.

我們將透過提高數據和下一代技術的可用性來釋放人工智慧和創新的巨大潛力，並且我們將一如既往地繼續投資於我們的團隊，他們顯然是我們業務中實現任何目標的真正參與者。

Now, to be able to explain better the reasons of why we selected these priorities, the details of what they actually mean and our action plans, together, obviously, with the associated financial and strategic goals, we are planning to hold our Investor Day during 2025, and given the Sabadell transaction, we thought it would be better to hold that session later in the year.

現在，為了能夠更好地解釋我們選擇這些優先事項的原因、它們的實際含義和行動計劃的細節，以及顯然相關的財務和戰略目標，我們計劃在 2025 年舉辦投資者日，考慮到薩瓦德爾交易，我們認為最好在今年晚些時候舉行該會議。

So we will be updating you about the dates in due time.

因此我們將及時向您更新日期。

The only thing I will leave you with, as I close this chapter, is that we continue to see positive numbers in our long-term planning.

當我結束本章時，我唯一能留給你們的是，我們在長期規劃中繼續看到正面的數字。

And our favorite metric of tangible book value per share plus dividends under our baseline FX scenarios, it continues to show strong figures around mid-teens.

在我們基準外匯情境下，我們最喜歡的指標是每股有形帳面價值加上股息，它繼續顯示出中十幾歲左右的強勁數字。

So we are also quite positive about the long-term.

因此，我們對長期前景也非常樂觀。

And now for the business areas update, I turn it to Luisa.

現在對於業務領域的更新，我將其交給 Luisa。

Thank you very much, Onur, and good morning, everyone.

非常感謝，Onur，大家早安。

And we start with Spain on slide 24.

我們從幻燈片 24 上的西班牙開始。

And I'm very happy to say that we've seen Spain deliver quarter-on-quarter.

我很高興地說，我們看到西班牙的銷售額環比成長。

We've seen Spain improving guidance throughout the year.

我們看到西班牙全年都在改善指導。

And we're actually seeing Spain delivering yet another amazing quarter and closing an outstanding performance for the year, achieving EUR3.8 billion of net profit.

事實上，我們看到西班牙又一個季度表現驚人，全年業績表現出色，實現淨利 38 億歐元。

As Onur mentioned before, activity levels remain robust with strong momentum across all portfolios, driving solid loan growth for the quarter, increasing by that 4.1% in the last year.

正如 Onur 先前所提到的，活動水準依然強勁，所有投資組合都勢頭強勁，推動本季貸款穩步增長，去年同期增長了 4.1%。

And I would also like to highlight the very sound loan evolution in the quarter itself with that growth of 2.3% quarter-on-quarter.

我還想強調本季貸款發展非常好，季增了 2.3%。

In 2025, the positive momentum in lending is expected to continue, supported by sound economic growth and lower rates.

2025年，在穩健的經濟成長和較低利率的支持下，貸款預計將繼續保持積極的勢頭。

In such a context, we do expect to continue outperforming the market, growing our loan book by low to mid-single digit.

在這樣的背景下，我們確實預期將繼續跑贏市場，讓我們的貸款規模達到低至中個位數的成長。

Turning to the P&L.

轉向損益表。

As you see, quarterly results stand at EUR918 million, one more quarter beating the market expectations.

如您所見，季度業績為 9.18 億歐元，比市場預期又超出一個季度。

Despite the lower rates, NII in the quarter has proven to be resilient, falling roughly by 1% quarter-on-quarter, supported by robust activity growth, especially in the most profitable segments, effective price management, which I think is very relevant, and higher contribution from the ALCO portfolios.

儘管利率較低，但本季的 NII 已證明具有韌性，環比下降約 1%，這得益於強勁的活動增長（尤其是在最賺錢的領域）、有效的價格管理（我認為這非常重要）以及 ALCO 投資組合的更高貢獻。

We have also seen a strong quarter in terms of fees with significant contributions from CIB and asset management.

我們也看到本季費用表現強勁，其中 CIB 和資產管理貢獻顯著。

In this area, we have benefited from increasing net inflows and the recognition in the quarter of the success fees linked to the fund's performance in the year.

在這方面，我們受益於淨流入量的增加，以及與基金當年業績掛鉤的成功費在本季度的認可。

On the expense side, costs were well-contained throughout 2024, evolving in line with our guidance and leading to a significant improvement in our efficiency ratio, which stands at an impressive and remarkable 35.3%.

在費用方面，2024 年全年成本都得到了很好的控制，按照我們的指導方針發展，並顯著提高了我們的效率比率，達到令人印象深刻的 35.3%。

Finally, asset quality metrics remain benign, supported by solid underlying trends.

最後，在穩健的基本趨勢支撐下，資產品質指標依然保持良好。

The NPL ratio declined, while the coverage level increased to close to 60% and the cost of risk has held steady at 38 basis points.

不良貸款率下降，覆蓋率上升至接近60%，風險成本穩定在38個基點。

Now, let me share our guidance for Spain in 2025, which reflects a continuation of the positive momentum we have built.

現在，讓我分享我們對西班牙2025年的指導，這反映了我們已經建立的積極勢頭的延續。

As I mentioned before, we expect loan growth at low to mid-single digit for 2025, outperforming the market.

正如我之前提到的，我們預計 2025 年貸款成長率將達到低至中個位數，優於市場。

In a lower rate environment, we anticipate a slight decline NII, supported by continued activity growth and higher contribution from the ALCO portfolio.

在較低利率環境下，我們預計 NII 將略有下降，這得益於持續的活動成長和 ALCO 投資組合的貢獻增加。

For fees, we foresee low single-digit growth following an exceptional 2024 performance.

對於費用，我們預計在 2024 年表現出色之後將出現低個位數成長。

We expect expenses to slightly grow below average inflation, maintaining our efficiency ratio at around 36%.

我們預計支出成長將略低於平均通膨率，並將我們的效率比率維持在 36% 左右。

Finally, we anticipate the cost of risk to remain stable at or slightly below 38 basis points.

最後，我們預期風險成本將維持穩定在 38 個基點或略低於 38 個基點。

In conclusion, this has been an excellent year for BBVA in Spain.

總而言之，對於 BBVA 西班牙分行來說，這是業績斐然的一年。

Congratulations to all the teams.

祝賀所有隊伍。

Looking ahead, the strength of our franchise and our solid delivery track record make us confident in our ability to maintain attractive profitability levels in Spain going forward.

展望未來，我們特許經營的實力和良好的交付記錄使我們有信心在未來在西班牙保持有吸引力的盈利水平。

Now, let's move to Mexico, as shown on slide 26.

現在，讓我們轉到墨西哥，如幻燈片 26 所示。

Once again, Mexico has delivered exceptional results, and I would like to highlight that in the context of, I think, a very challenging environment throughout the year.

墨西哥再次取得了卓越的成績，我想強調的是，在整個一年中，墨西哥面臨的環境都十分具有挑戰性。

And these results have been driven by robust core revenues growth, highlighting our leadership in this key market.

這些業績是由強勁的核心營收成長所推動的，凸顯了我們在這個關鍵市場的領導地位。

Earnings reached EUR5.4 billion in 2024, growing by close to 6% year-over-year in constant euros.

2024 年收益達 54 億歐元，以歐元不變價格計算年增近 6%。

In terms of activity, lending growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, thanks to stronger growth in wholesale and the continued expansion of retail lending at a solid pace.

從活動方面來看，由於批發業務成長強勁以及零售貸款持續穩定擴張，第四季貸款成長加速。

Total loans increased by an outstanding 16%, leading to notable market share gains across the board, reinforcing our leadership position.

總貸款餘額增加了 16%，導致市佔率全面顯著成長，鞏固了我們的領導地位。

As of November, our loan market share stands at 25.4%, increasing by 87 basis points in the year.

截至11月，我們的貸款市佔率為25.4%，年比增加了87個基點。

In terms of results, net profits approached EUR1.4 billion in the fourth quarter on the back of core revenues, growing above 3% on a quarterly basis.

業績方面，在核心營收的推動下，第四季淨利接近14億歐元，較上季成長3%以上。

Net interest income grew steadily, increasing by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter, supported by solid loan growth and disciplined pricing strategies.

由於穩健的貸款成長和嚴格的定價策略，淨利息收入穩步增長，環比增長 2.7%。

On deposits, we continue to effectively manage the cost, which decreased by 12 basis points in the quarter.

在存款方面，我們繼續有效管理成本，本季成本下降了 12 個基點。

We maintain our competitive advantage, our competitive edge on deposit costs, remaining more than 2 percentage points below our peers.

我們維持了競爭優勢，也就是存款成本的競爭優勢，比同業低2個百分點以上。

Total fees have also performed strongly, driven by solid growth in credit cards and asset management fees, outstanding efficiency keeping the cost-to-income ratio at 30% on the back of high revenue growth.

受信用卡和資產管理費穩健成長的推動，總費用表現強勁，在高收入成長的背景下，效率出色，將成本收入比保持在 30%。

And finally, asset quality trends remained fully aligned with expectations and our profitable growth strategy.

最後，資產品質趨勢與預期和我們的獲利成長策略完全一致。

All in, very positive dynamics that make us very confident also looking forward at our Mexican business.

總的來說，非常積極的勢頭讓我們對墨西哥業務充滿信心，也充滿期待。

And again, congratulations to the Mexican team as well.

再次恭喜墨西哥隊。

More specifically, our guidance for 2025 is as follows.

更具體地說，我們對 2025 年的指導如下。

We expect solid lending momentum to continue, leading to high single-digit loan growth next year -- well, this year, sorry, '25.

我們預計強勁的貸款勢頭將持續下去，從而導致明年——嗯，是今年，抱歉，是25年——的貸款實現高個位數增長。

Based on this sound loan growth and our proven capacity to preserve spreads, we expect NII to grow slightly below activity growth, expenses to grow slightly below 2024, maintaining the efficiency ratio at the current levels of 30%.

基於穩健的貸款成長和我們已證實的利差維持能力，我們預計 NII 的成長將略低於活動的成長，支出的成長將略低於 2024 年，並將效率比率維持在目前 30% 的水平。

On asset quality, we expect a moderate increase of cost of risk to around 300 basis points in 2025, on the back of higher growth in the Retail segment, as has been our strategy in the past year.

在資產品質方面，我們預計，在零售業務更高成長的推動下，風險成本到 2025 年將適度增加至 300 個基點左右，這也正是我們過去一年的策略。

Moving now to Turkey on slide 27.

現在轉到幻燈片 27 上的土耳其。

Garanti BBVA achieved a net profit of EUR611 million, a 16% increase compared to the previous year, also within a very challenging macroprudential year.

今年是宏觀審慎監管非常具有挑戰性的一年，Garanti BBVA 實現淨利潤 6.11 億歐元，比上年增長 16%。

As expected, the bottom line improved in the fourth quarter with the Turkish lira customer spreads starting to recover and turning positive levels in the fourth quarter.

正如預期的那樣，第四季度的底線有所改善，土耳其里拉客戶利差開始回升並在第四季度轉為正水平。

This was supported by the ongoing de-dollarization trend and the start of the easing cycle.

這得益於持續的去美元化趨勢和寬鬆週期的開始。

Recall that we have positive NII sensitivity to lower rates in Turkey, so we will benefit from a faster downward repricing of customer deposits.

回想一下，我們對土耳其較低利率具有積極的 NII 敏感性，因此我們將受益於客戶存款更快的向下定價。

The improvement in inflation trends throughout 2024 also had a positive impact.

2024年全年通膨趨勢的改善也產生了正面影響。

The cost of risk increased to 127 basis points after what was an abnormally low level in 2023, and this is mainly due to higher provisioning needs in retail, consistent with the cycle.

風險成本在 2023 年處於異常低水準之後升至 127 個基點，這主要是由於零售業撥備需求增加，與週期一致。

Our franchise has a proven track record of delivering results, outperforming its peers in all key financial metrics with across-the-board market share gains in TL lending in 2024.

我們的特許經營權有著良好的業績記錄，在所有關鍵財務指標上均超越同行，並在 2024 年 TL 貸款領域全面擴大市場份額。

It delivered the highest ROE among private peers in the first nine months of the year, driven by a material better NIM that is explained by higher share of customer-driven assets.

今年前九個月，該公司在私人銀行中實現了最高的 ROE，這得益於淨利差的大幅改善，而這得益於客戶驅動資產佔比的提高。

Looking ahead, we are confident about the performance of the franchise and a growing contribution from Garanti BBVA.

展望未來，我們對特許經營的表現和 Garanti BBVA 不斷增長的貢獻充滿信心。

Based on our expectations of inflation, interest rates and currency evolution, we anticipate a net profit close to EUR1 billion in 2025 with a better second half of the year.

根據我們對通貨膨脹、利率和貨幣演變的預期，我們預計 2025 年的淨利潤將接近 10 億歐元，下半年的表現會更好。

This positive outlook is on the back of a gradual improvement in the customer spread for Turkish lira in the context of declining rates, a lower hyperinflation adjustment compared to 2024 as the [disinflation] trend persists, partially offset by a higher cost of risk to stand at around 180 basis points in 2025 with a better second half of the year.

這種積極的前景是基於以下因素：在利率下降的背景下，土耳其里拉的客戶利差逐漸改善；由於[通貨緊縮]趨勢持續，與 2024 年相比，惡性通貨膨脹的調整幅度較低；但風險成本上升將部分抵消這一影響，到 2025 年，風險成本將達到 180 個基點左右，下半年形勢將更好。

In summary, as Turkey continues on its path towards economic normalization, our franchise is already showing encouraging signs of recovery, and is best positioned to increase its contribution to the group.

總而言之，隨著土耳其繼續走向經濟正常化，我們的特許經營權已經顯示出令人鼓舞的復甦跡象，並且最有能力增加對集團的貢獻。

And finally, let's move to South America on slide 28.

最後，我們來看看第 28 張投影片上的南美洲。

The region delivered more than EUR600 million net profit in 2024, a substantial figure that underscores the strength and resilience of our franchise across the region, even in challenging environments.

2024 年，該地區實現了超過 6 億歐元的淨利潤，這一可觀的數字凸顯了我們在整個地區的特許經營權的實力和韌性，即使在充滿挑戰的環境中也是如此。

Solid earnings in the year supported by revenues growth, sound NII performance in the context of loan growth across most profitable segments and improving customer spreads across countries, strong performance of fees and higher NTI.

由於營收成長、最賺錢部門貸款成長、跨國客戶利差改善、費用表現強勁以及 NTI 上升，本年度獲利穩健。

However, this is weighed down by a higher hyperinflation adjustment in Argentina and increasing costs as inflation continues to exert some pressure on expenses in the region.

然而，由於阿根廷的惡性通貨膨脹調整幅度加大，以及通貨膨脹繼續對該地區的支出造成一定壓力，導致成本增加，從而拖累了這一增長。

Asset quality trends improved along the year, I would highlight particularly in Peru, and incipiently in Colombia, driven by a more favorable macroeconomic environment and some adjustments to our risk appetite and retail portfolios starting to show through.

資產品質趨勢在一年內有所改善，我想特別指出的是秘魯和哥倫比亞的資產品質有所改善，這得益於更為有利的宏觀經濟環境以及我們的風險偏好和零售投資組合的一些調整開始顯現。

Looking ahead to 2025, we are optimistic about the region.

展望2025年，我們對該地區充滿信心。

We expect loan growth above 2024 with continued market share gains in our main markets and lower cost of risk below 270 basis points in the year, supported by improving underlying trends in Peru and Colombia.

我們預計，2024 年貸款成長率將超過預期，主要市場的市佔率將持續成長，年內風險成本將降至 270 個基點以下，並受到秘魯和哥倫比亞基本趨勢改善的支持。

Overall, the outlook for South America is turning more positive, and we anticipate a higher contribution to the group's results in the coming years.

總體而言，南美的前景變得更加樂觀，我們預計未來幾年將為集團的表現做出更大的貢獻。

And back to you, Onur.

現在回到你身邊，奧努爾。

So we are four minutes late.

所以我們遲到了四分鐘。

Allow me to basically not cover fully the last 2 pages.

請允許我基本上不完全涵蓋最後兩頁。

The takeaway page, we have already gone through them.

外送頁面，我們已經瀏覽過了。

The only thing I would say to you is that it's a bit tough for us.

我唯一想說的是，這對我們來說有點困難。

When we are doing these presentations, we use all these adjectives which are like amazing adjectives, this and that, but really, I think, in 2024, we had an exceptional year.

當我們做這些演示時，我們會使用所有這些形容詞，例如令人驚嘆的形容詞，這個和那個，但實際上，我認為，2024 年是我們度過的特殊一年。

That's the summary of takeaways.

以上就是要點的總結。

And on 2025, Luisa has already given you all the details by country, which then makes up the overall group.

到了 2025 年，Luisa 已經為您提供了按國家/地區列出的所有詳細信息，這些信息構成了整個群組。

But the only thing I would highlight here is that for the group overall, based again on all the guidance that we are giving to you, we are positive.

但我在這裡要強調的唯一一點是，對於整個集團而言，基於我們提供的所有指導，我們是持正面態度的。

We are quite positive actually.

事實上我們非常積極。

And we expect to maintain our return on tangible equity at high-teens, similar to 2024 levels, as we said before.

正如我們之前所說，我們預計有形資產回報率將保持在高十幾個百分點，與 2024 年的水平相似。

And on efficiency, we expect to be around 40%, again, repeating the impressive figure that we have had in 2024.

在效率方面，我們預計效率將達到 40% 左右，再次重複我們在 2024 年取得的令人印象深刻的數字。

Let me not take more time, and let's just jump into Q&A.

我不想佔用太多時間，讓我們直接進入問答環節。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you very much, Onur.

非常感謝，Onur。

We are ready now to start with the Q&A session.

我們現在準備開始問答環節。

So the first question, please.

請問第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

本傑明·湯姆斯（Benjamin Toms），加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

A good set of results, but I'm just wrestling with BBVA's CET1 ratio.

這是一組不錯的結果，但我仍在努力提高 BBVA 的 CET1 比率。

It's 12.88% versus a soft target of 12%.

該數字為 12.88%，而軟目標為 12%。

The Sabadell transaction is worth about 30 basis points, I think, and you generate more than enough capital to fund RWA growth.

我認為，薩瓦德爾交易價值約為 30 個基點，並且產生的資本足以資助 RWA 成長。

Why are you holding on to 60 basis points or EUR2 billion of excess capital?

為什麼要持有60個基點或20億歐元的過剩資本？

And what do you plan to use this for?

您打算用它做什麼？

I know that you've already ruled out using it to boost your offer for Sabadell.

我知道您已經排除了用它來提高對薩瓦德爾的報價的可能性。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very good, to the point question, Benjamin.

非常好，問題切中要點，本傑明。

I mean, we said it multiple times in all the calls before that we are committed to profitable growth.

我的意思是，我們之前在所有電話會議中都多次表示，我們致力於實現獲利成長。

We want to grow our business in a very profitable way.

我們希望以一種非常有利可圖的方式發展我們的業務。

And whatever the excess is, we will distribute it back.

無論有多少剩餘，我們都會將其分配回去。

And as you say, we do have the excess.

正如您所說，我們確實有餘裕。

But again, as you have followed the previous quarterly calls, we were restricted since May to do share buybacks, and CNMV has just recently lifted that restriction.

但是，正如您所關注的之前的季度電話會議一樣，我們自 5 月以來就被限制回購股票，而 CNMV 最近剛剛取消了這一限制。

So we are starting, as part of our regular payout, to do the share buyback.

因此，我們開始將股票回購作為定期派息的一部分。

So we will do the share buybacks.

因此我們將進行股票回購。

It will take some time to complete this one.

完成這項工作需要一些時間。

Then, the Sabadell transaction is there, and we are still committed to go back to that 12%.

然後，薩瓦德爾交易就在那裡，我們仍然致力於回到那 12%。

That's our target.

這就是我們的目標。

And we will go back to the upper end of that range, 12% in due time.

我們將在適當的時候回到該範圍的上限，即 12%。

So we can do more share buybacks in the future, obviously, but at the moment, we are already launching one.

因此，顯然，我們將來可以進行更多的股票回購，但目前，我們已經啟動了一次股票回購。

As I told you today, the restriction on the share buybacks are lifted by CNMV.

正如我今天告訴你的，CNMV 取消了對股票回購的限制。

That's why we're going to be starting this EUR993 million worth of share buyback as soon as possible.

這就是為什麼我們要盡快開始價值9.93億歐元的股票回購。

And then we will follow.

然後我們就會跟隨。

Our commitment is there.

我們的承諾就在那裡。

It's your money.

這是你的錢。

It's the money of the shareholders.

這是股東的錢。

Thank you very much, Benjamin.

非常感謝，本傑明。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Francisco Riquel, Alantra.

弗朗西斯科·里克爾，阿蘭特拉。

Thank you.

謝謝。

First question is on Mexico.

第一個問題是關於墨西哥的。

I have seen growth in demand deposits slowing down from 10% in Q3 to 4% in Q4.

我看到活期存款的成長從第三季的 10% 放緩到第四季的 4%。

I'm looking at year-on-year to leave seasonality aside.

我觀察的是同比數據，將季節性因素放在一邊。

So I wonder if you have seen more competition there from the likes of [neo] bank or open bank this Q4?

所以我想知道，今年第四季度，您是否看到來自新銀行或開放銀行等的更激烈的競爭？

And how do you see the cost of deposits in '25, if you think you can maintain this edge versus the peers?

如果您認為您能夠保持與同行相比的優勢，那麼您如何看待 25 年的存款成本？

And also connected with this, the -- with the rising loan-to-deposit ratio north of 100% in Mexico, if you see any implication in '25 in terms of limiting either loan growth or the migration of customer funds off the balance sheet, which AUMs are growing fast above 20%?

與此相關的是，隨著墨西哥的貸存比上升至 100% 以上，如果您認為在 25 年限制貸款成長或客戶資金從資產負債表轉移方面有任何影響，那麼哪些 AUM 的成長率會超過 20%？

And then I have a second question for Spain.

然後我還有第二個問題想問西班牙。

You are guiding for a slight decline in NII in '25, only a slight decline, so I understand.

您預計 25 年 NII 會略有下降，只是略有下降，所以我理解。

NII is supported by your active hedging strategy.

NII 受到您的主動對沖策略的支持。

So if you can give more color on these hedges, duration, fixed rate loans assets?

那麼，您能否對這些對沖、期限、固定利率貸款資產進行更詳細的說明？

So I'm trying to assess if there could be a cliff in NII at some point in '26 or '27 when those hedges roll off?

所以我想評估一下，當這些對沖措施取消時，在 26 年或 27 年的某個時候，NII 是否會出現斷崖？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very good.

非常好。

Luisa, do you want to start with the first one on Mexico, cost of deposits?

路易莎，你想先談談墨西哥的存款成本嗎？

Maybe you start and I can complement a bit more and then -- you do hedges.

也許你先開始，然後我可以再補充一點，然後──你做對沖。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Yes.

是的。

I think that we've seen the quarter-on-quarter evolution of deposits in Mexico improve the mix.

我認為我們已經看到墨西哥存款逐季變化的情況改善了結構。

Actually, it's been -- it typically is a good quarter in Mexico at the end of the year because of the extra pays at the end of the year benefiting -- and then we benefit especially because we have over 40% payroll market share in the country.

事實上，墨西哥年底的季度業績通常都不錯，因為年底的額外工資會讓我們受益匪淺，尤其是因為我們在該國的工資市場份額超過 40%。

So demand deposits actually accelerated in the quarter-on-quarter numbers to that 5.5%, and time deposits growth actually decelerated compared to other quarters.

因此，活期存款的季度環比增長實際上加速至 5.5%，而定期存款的增長與其他季度相比實際上有所放緩。

So I think we've been managing cost of deposits quite well in the fourth quarter with the cost of deposit declining also.

因此，我認為我們在第四季度很好地管理了存款成本，並且存款成本也在下降。

I think what's that -- overall, I think the broader picture here is what we've been saying consistently about the way we manage our cost of deposits.

我認為那是什麼——總的來說，我認為更廣泛的情況是我們一直在談論的關於我們管理存款成本的方式。

And we've always been very -- I think, very transparent in saying that this is a key competitive advantage for us.

而且我們一直都非常——我認為，非常透明地說這是我們的關鍵競爭優勢。

We want to be and we are in the transactionality of our clients.

我們希望並且我們也參與客戶的交易。

We have, as I mentioned, a very high market share in payrolls.

正如我所提到的，我們在薪資領域佔有非常高的市場份額。

We have very high market share in transactionality of our enterprise clients.

我們在企業客戶交易領域擁有非常高的市場佔有率。

And we want to protect those competitive advantages that you see through the cost of deposits, that competitive advantage versus the peers where we have 2.9% of cost of deposits versus the peers at 5.3%.

我們希望保護透過存款成本看到的競爭優勢，與同業相比，我們的存款成本為 2.9%，而同行為 5.3%。

So the strategy going forward is to maintain that competitive advantage.

因此，未來的策略是保持競爭優勢。

We believe that in a declining interest rate environment, this is also going to be supportive for decreasing cost of deposits going into next year -- into this year.

我們相信，在利率下降的環境下，這也將有利於明年和今年存款成本的降低。

And in addition, I would also add that we have seen a very strong performance of our customer funds growth, as you've seen, growing in the year 11.6%, which is something that, overall, when you look at total customer funds in the year, we're growing 3.3% in the quarter as well.

此外，我還要補充一點，我們的客戶資金成長表現非常強勁，正如您所看到的，今年增長了 11.6%，總體而言，當您查看全年的客戶資金總額時，我們本季度也增長了 3.3%。

So what I would lastly say with regards to your loan-to-deposit question is that we ended the year at around 104%, very consistent I think throughout the year.

所以關於您的貸款與存款比率問題，我最後要說的是，我們年底的比率約為 104%，我認為全年都非常穩定。

And this is the level that we see also going into 2025.

我們認為 2025 年也將達到這個水準。

We see that level at around 105% being there, and that will still allow us to fulfill our guidance and continue to have a very profitable franchise in Mexico.

我們認為該水準約為 105%，這仍將使我們能夠實現我們的指導目標，並繼續在墨西哥擁有非常有利可圖的特許經營權。

Very good.

非常好。

I will add on top -- on this question, on the LTV part.

關於這個問題，關於 LTV 部分，我將進行補充。

Paco, the loan-to-deposit ratio in Mexico at the moment is 104%, as you said.

帕科，正如您所說，目前墨西哥的貸款與存款比率為 104%。

And you implied that it might be getting squeezed and so on.

您暗示它可能會受到擠壓等等。

In 2019, five years, six years ago, that same ratio was 107%, 107%.

五年、六年前的 2019 年，這一比例分別為 107%、107%。

And we are watching this number very, very closely, obviously.

顯然，我們正在非常密切地關注這個數字。

At that time and today when you look into the breakdown of that deposit base, you do see that roughly 1/3, slightly more than actually, 1/3 of that deposit base is amounts less than EUR30,000, very small ticket amount of deposits.

當時和今天，當您查看該存款基數的細目時，您會看到大約 1/3，實際上略多於 1/3，該存款基數的金額低於 30,000 歐元，是小額存款。

And that's the power of our Mexican franchise.

這就是我們墨西哥特許經營的力量。

I keep talking to you about this in every single call, more than 40% market share that we have in payroll.

我在每次通話中都跟您談論這個問題，我們在薪資領域佔有超過 40% 的市場份額。

The reason that I'm giving you this number is that -- the reason that loan-to-deposit ratio of 104% is not preoccupying us, because -- some of you have raised this question to us also in the past -- is because that marginal deposit that comes at a very high rate, we can do it either through deposits or through wholesale funding.

我之所以給你們這個數字，是因為——104%的貸存比並沒有讓我們擔心，因為——你們中的一些人過去也向我們提出過這個問題——是因為邊際存款的利率非常高，我們可以透過存款或批發融資來獲取。

It doesn't matter to us.

這對我們來說無所謂。

What really matters to us is that, that small ticket deposit base, the transactional deposit base, the percentage of that, is it coming down or not?

對我們來說真正重要的是，小額存款基數、交易存款基數的百分比是否會下降？

And what I'm telling you is that even in the period of 2019 when we have had 107% and today, that percentage is not coming down at all.

我要告訴你們的是，即使在 2019 年，我們的這一比例曾經達到 107%，而今天，這一比例根本沒有下降。

We are growing that base as well.

我們也正在擴大這個基礎。

We acquired 5 million new customers in Mexico in 2024.

2024 年，我們在墨西哥獲得了 500 萬新客戶。

With new customers, new payroll accounts, we are maintaining the hard core, really advantageous part of the deposit base.

透過新客戶、新薪資帳戶，我們維持了存款基礎中核心的、真正有利的部分。

That is why we have 2 percentage points -- more than 2 percentage points difference in cost of deposits versus the rest of the competition.

這就是為什麼我們的存款成本比其他競爭對手高出 2 個百分點——超過 2 個百分點。

To cut the long story short, I'm telling you that this 104%, if we like, we can make that number 100%.

長話短說，我告訴你，如果我們願意，這個 104% 可以變成 100%。

It doesn't matter because that's the marginal deposit that we are putting on top.

沒關係，因為這是我們存入的邊際存款。

We have to keep growing that very sticky, very low ticket deposit base to be able to fund our growth.

我們必須繼續擴大這個非常黏性、非常低的票價存款基礎，以便能夠為我們的成長提供資金。

In that sense, we are very confident that loan-to-deposit ratio is not going to create a major issue on BBVA.

從這個意義上來說，我們非常有信心貸存比不會對 BBVA 造成重大問題。

Some of you are writing this in your reports and saying that this will be lowering the margins.

你們中的一些人在報告中寫到了這一點，並說這會降低利潤率。

No, no.

不，不。

We have been living through this for the last decade.

過去十年來，我們一直經歷著這種狀況。

It's more the strength of the franchise and the strength of the deposit base that makes this difference.

造成這種差異的更多的是特許經營權的實力和存款基礎的實力。

Regarding the hedges, you already have the ALCO figures in the details of the presentation.

關於對沖，您已經在演示的詳細資訊中獲得了 ALCO 數據。

You already see the details of duration and everything else.

您已經看到了持續時間和其他所有資訊的詳細資訊。

On top of that, which is not reported in those pages, we made it public before, we also have mortgage hedges, as we call them, very short-term hedges on top of the ALCO.

除此之外，這些頁面中沒有報導過，我們之前已經公開過，我們還有所謂的抵押貸款對沖，這是在 ALCO 之上的非常短期的對沖。

That also helps us in 2025.

這也對我們在 2025 年的發展有幫助。

For the year of 2025, we have an average EUR15 billion mortgage hedge also which is covering more than 1/3 of our floating rate mortgages.

到 2025 年，我們的平均抵押貸款對沖規模為 150 億歐元，涵蓋了我們浮動利率抵押貸款的三分之一以上。

So you should add that additional hedging position that we have on top of the ALCO.

因此，您應該在 ALCO 之上添加我們的額外對沖頭寸。

When you sum them all up, it is protecting our NII in 2025 in Spain.

總結起來，就是在 2025 年保護西班牙的國家資訊基礎架構。

Thank you very much (inaudible) Next question, please.

非常感謝（聽不清楚）請問下一個問題。

Antonio Reale, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安東尼奧·雷亞萊 (Antonio Reale)。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

It's Antony from Bank of America.

我是美國銀行的安東尼。

I have two, if I may.

如果可以的話，我有兩個。

The first one is on Mexico, and you've guided to further cost control at the group level.

第一個是關於墨西哥的，您已經指導在集團層面進一步控製成本。

Can you maybe give us a bit more of a sense of flexibility that you retain when it comes to managing the cost base in Mexico, particularly should revenues disappoint?

您能否向我們透露一下，在管理墨西哥成本基礎方面，尤其是在收入令人失望的情況下，您能保留更多的彈性嗎？

Last year, you've been investing in IT and SME bankers.

去年，您一直在投資 IT 和中小企業銀行家。

Can you provide us a little bit more color around what percentage of your cost base in Mexico is fixed, and where you have the flexibility to defend operating jaws in the region?

您能否向我們提供更多有關您在墨西哥的成本基礎中固定百分比的信息，以及您在哪些方面可以靈活地保護該地區的運營利潤？

And then if I may, very quickly, on to Turkey, which is becoming a lot more than just optionality at this point.

然後，如果可以的話，我很快地談談土耳其，現在它已經不僅僅是一個可選項了。

Inflation is coming down nicely.

通貨膨脹正在穩步下降。

The policy rates have started to follow, which seems to be a great setup for your net interest margin to grow in 2025.

政策利率已開始跟隨，這似乎為您的 2025 年淨利差增長提供了良好的基礎。

Can you just help us better understand the duration mismatch between assets and liabilities and the trajectory of that net interest margin over the next few quarters?

您能否幫助我們更了解資產和負債之間的期限錯配以及未來幾季淨利差的走勢？

Do you want to take the Mexican cost question?

您想回答墨西哥成本問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, in terms of expenses, expenses in the year have grown 8.8%, and we continue to invest in the franchise as we've been seeing positive jaws throughout the year.

嗯，就費用而言，今年的費用增長了 8.8%，而且我們繼續對特許經營權進行投資，因為我們全年都看到了積極的結果。

I think what is relevant is that we want to continue to invest in the country, and we have been laying the foundations with these investments for profitable growth in the future.

我認為重要的是我們希望繼續在該國投資，並且我們一直透過這些投資為未來的獲利成長奠定基礎。

And with the -- when you look at the breakdown of expenses, personnel expenses have grown, and this is linked very much to activity momentum.

當您查看費用明細時，您會發現人事費用有所增長，這與活動勢頭密切相關。

We've -- Obviously, we have sales force incentives.

顯然，我們有銷售人員激勵措施。

We have salary reviews.

我們有薪資評估。

And we have had headcount increase as well, primarily in IT profiles throughout the year, but also some branch headcount increases as well, supporting growth, especially on our commercial business.

我們的員工數量也有所增加，主要是全年 IT 部門的員工數量增加，但一些分支機構的員工數量也有所增加，以支持增長，特別是我們的商業業務的增長。

And the admin expenses have increased less than the personnel expenses, and these have been driven primarily by IT expenses, especially data processing expenses.

管理費用的增幅低於人事費用，主要受到IT費用，尤其是數據處理費用的推動。

I think throughout the year, Mexico has been doing a very solid exercise of efficiency gains throughout the year.

我認為，墨西哥全年都在紮實努力提高效率。

And this will also continue into 2025.

而這種情況還將持續到2025年。

And of course, as mentioned, we have the levers that if we don't see the activity growth coming, obviously, we have the different levers regarding headcount, personnel and investments to tackle, so -- and feel very comfortable that those levers are there.

當然，正如前面提到的，如果我們沒有看到活動增長，我們顯然有關於員工人數、人員和投資的不同槓桿來應對，所以 - 並且感到非常放心這些槓桿的存在。

Just to add two things.

只需補充兩件事。

I mean, if you look into our cost base, Mexican cost base is one of the most variable compensation or variable structure that we have, because a good part of our salespeople, a good part of their compensation is variable.

我的意思是，如果你看看我們的成本基礎，墨西哥成本基礎是我們最不穩定的薪酬或可變結構之一，因為我們的大部分銷售人員，他們的很大一部分薪酬都是可變的。

So if the results are not there that will be automatically adjusting.

所以如果結果沒有出來的話就會自動調整。

And as you said, IT projects, software development, we do have a large percentage of external FTE usage in there, so we can also adjust that as well.

正如您所說，IT 專案、軟體開發中我們確實有很大比例的外部 FTE 使用，因此我們也可以對此進行調整。

But that's not our base case scenario at all, Antonio.

但這根本不是我們的基本情況，安東尼奧。

I mean, beyond what we are sharing with you today, I see the pipelines in Mexico every single day -- and the pipelines are very strong, very strong.

我的意思是，除了我們今天與你們分享的內容之外，我每天都會看到墨西哥的管道——這些管道非常非常堅固。

And so our base case is a very nice growth and nice year in Mexico.

因此，我們的基本預測是墨西哥將迎來非常好的成長和豐收的一年。

On the Turkish case, you quoted very clearly, beyond the inflation and currency, obviously, the key driver of the Turkish P&L this year will be interest rates.

關於土耳其的案例，您引用得非常清楚，除了通貨膨脹和貨幣之外，顯然，今年土耳其損益的關鍵驅動因素將是利率。

If interest rates come down, we will be delivering a very nice value and profit in Turkey.

如果利率下降，我們將在土耳其實現非常好的價值和利潤。

Our duration gap at the beginning of last year, 2024, it was around two months.

我們去年年初（2024 年）的期限差距約為兩個月。

And throughout the year, we increased this duration gap to around five months.

而全年我們將這個時間差距增加到五個月左右。

So we have a duration gap of five months.

因此，我們的持續時間差距為五個月。

We extended the duration hoping that the interest rates will come down, and they started coming down.

我們延長了期限，希望利率會下降，結果利率確實開始下降。

So as you know, 2x or 250 basis points decline they have done.

如您所知，他們已經下降了 2 倍或 250 個基點。

Our expectation for end of 2025 is 30% interest rate, 30%, 31%, and today, it's 45%.

我們對 2025 年底的預期是利率為 30%、30%、31%，而今天則是 45%。

If that happens, the number that Luisa guided you with, is a relatively easy number to get.

如果發生這種情況，Luisa 指導您的數字是一個相對容易獲得的數字。

Thank you very much, Antonio.

非常感謝，安東尼奧。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Maksym Mishyn, JB Capital.

Maksym Mishyn，JB Capital。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you very much for the presentation and taking our question.

非常感謝您的演講和回答我們的提問。

My first question is on loan book in Spain.

我的第一個問題是關於西班牙的貸款帳簿。

Your guidance is to outperform the market.

您的指導是超越市場。

Could you just remind us of the reason why you are outperforming your peers, and which segments you see more attractive for 2025?

您能否提醒我們您優於同業的原因，以及您認為 2025 年哪些領域更具吸引力？

And then a small follow-up on capital.

然後對資本進行一些小小的後續追蹤。

Thanks for the details on RWA consumption.

感謝您提供有關 RWA 消費的詳細資訊。

I was wondering if we should expect more management actions in the coming quarters to reduce consumption of RWAs?

我想知道我們是否應該在未來幾季採取更多管理措施來減少 RWA 的消耗？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very good.

非常好。

On which segments in Spain, basically, across the board, but by definition, mortgages will grow less than others.

在西班牙的各個領域，基本上都是如此，但根據定義，抵押貸款的成長速度將低於其他領域。

But why are we growing more than others?

但為什麼我們的成長速度比其他人更快呢？

Because in certain segments, we have a very strong appetite to growth, and in certain segments that grow better than the market, like consumer, consumer is growing in general, better than the market average, we have a better position.

因為在某些領域，我們對成長有非常強烈的渴望，而且在某些成長優於市場的領域，例如消費者領域，消費者的整體成長優於市場平均水平，我們擁有更好的地位。

I mean, if you look into our transactionality market share in Spain, like credit cards or debit cards, spending through cards, we have 16% market share.

我的意思是，如果你看看我們在西班牙的交易市場份額，例如信用卡或金融卡，透過卡片消費，我們的市場份額為 16%。

Our retail bank, relatively speaking, is much more stronger in Spain.

相對而言，我們的零售銀行在西班牙更加強大。

And being retail focused a bit more than other segments, it helps us, because that segment is growing very nicely.

與其他領域相比，我們更關注零售業，這對我們很有幫助，因為零售業發展得很好。

If you look into the labor market, if you look into the -- by the decrease of inflation, the capacity of people to do -- to borrow and to do stuff, the retail segment is quite positive.

如果你觀察勞動市場，如果你觀察通貨膨脹的下降、人們藉貸和做事的能力，你會發現零售業表現相當正面。

So we are going to be -- because of our mix of business, we will be positively affected.

因此，由於我們的業務組合，我們將受到積極的影響。

And then the second, you see it in the page, I love, in that page of Spain, that we grew 6.3% in mid-sized companies in the year, 7% in corporate and CIB.

然後第二個，您可以在我喜歡的頁面中看到，在西班牙的頁面上，我們今年的中型公司增長了 6.3％，企業和 CIB 增長了 7％。

We are putting a lot of focus on the enterprise segments.

我們非常重視企業領域。

We are relatively underrepresented in that area.

我們在該地區的代表性相對不足。

And it's a focus and push kind of a thing.

這是一種焦點和推動的事情。

When you sum them up, we are going to continue to increase our market share.

總結一下，我們將繼續增加我們的市場份額。

I mean, in consumer, in the last -- since 2021, we have gained 280 basis points market share.

我的意思是，在消費者領域，自 2021 年以來，我們的市佔率已經成長了 280 個基點。

In companies segment, we have gained 180 basis points market share.

在公司領域，我們的市佔率已獲得 180 個基點。

If we have been doing it in the last 4 years, we are -- we have the intention to do it this year as well.

如果我們在過去四年一直這樣做，那麼我們今年也打算這樣做。

Regarding the capital and the more management actions, exactly, that's our plan.

關於資本和更多的管理行動，這正是我們的計畫。

As I mentioned throughout the presentation, in the fourth quarter of this year, there was an impact 20 basis points positive coming from the management actions.

正如我在整個演講中提到的那樣，在今年第四季度，管理措施產生了 20 個基點的正面影響。

Half of that, roughly half of that was what we call significant risk transfers, mainly synthetic securitizations.

其中大約一半是我們所謂的重大風險轉移，主要是合成證券化。

We do think it's a good tool to leverage, and we started engaging in this more again in the fourth quarter.

我們確實認為這是一個很好的工具，並且我們在第四季度開始更多地參與其中。

Our intention is to keep doing it throughout 2025.

我們的目標是在 2025 年繼續這樣做。

Thank you very much, Max.

非常感謝，馬克斯。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Can I squeeze two questions?

我可以擠出兩個問題嗎？

One is on Mexico.

一個是關於墨西哥。

Obviously, there's some uncertainties there.

顯然，其中存在一些不確定性。

So maybe, Onur, I can press you to -- you've guided to high single-digit loan growth.

所以也許，奧努爾，我可以敦促你——你已經引導貸款實現高個位數成長。

Can you maybe walk us through a range, what do you have in mind in terms of policies from the US and general environment if things don't go as well as forecasted?

您能否為我們介紹一下，如果事情的發展不如預測的那樣，您對美國的政策和整體環境有何看法？

What would it look like?

它會是什麼樣子？

And similarly, if nothing happens over the weekend and we move on and it's much more normalized, the relationship, what could we look forward to on the upside?

同樣，如果週末沒有發生什麼事，我們繼續前進，關係更加正常化，那麼我們能期待什麼好處呢？

And the second question is on capital.

第二個問題是關於資本的。

You mentioned no Basel IV impact in 2025.

您提到 2025 年不會受到巴塞爾協議 IV 的影響。

Question is, what's left?

問題是，還剩下什麼？

And again, here, with in mind that we -- it looks like we're in a deregulation trend and Basel Endgame in the US has been pushed out.

再一次，考慮到我們似乎正處於放鬆管制的趨勢中，而美國的巴塞爾協議終局已經被推遲。

Is there elements of FRTB that can be -- that you think could be cancelled or pushed out?

您認為 FRTB 中有哪些元素可以被取消或延遲？

What are the impacts that are remaining?

還剩下哪些影響？

And could we look forward to a scenario where those impacts don't happen?

我們是否可以期待這些影響不會發生的情景？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Alvaro.

謝謝你，阿爾瓦羅。

As always, very good questions.

一如既往，非常好的問題。

The -- what happens on the weekend and something happens on the weekend and so on, Alvaro.

週末會發生什麼事，週末又會發生一些事，等等，阿爾瓦羅。

We have been going through this in the last, I don't know, eight months.

在過去的八個月裡，我們一直在經歷這件事。

One day, there's 0 tariff.

有一天，關稅為0。

The second day, 10%.

第二天，10%。

The third day, 25%.

第三天，25%。

Universal tariffs, certain sectors, gradual, this is happening.

普遍關稅，針對特定領域，是逐步實施的，這種情況正在發生。

This has been the case.

事實確實如此。

And whatever happens this weekend or next weekend, it just doesn't change the power of Mexico.

無論本週末或下週末發生什麼，都不會改變墨西哥的實力。

Obviously, there will be impacts.

顯然，會產生影響。

There will be impacts in currency and this and that.

這會對貨幣和其他方面產生影響。

But we discussed this before in the previous quarterly calls, Mexico has certain structural advantages, structural advantages, that will help Mexico going forward.

但我們在先前的季度電話會議上討論過這個問題，墨西哥具有某些結構性優勢，結構性優勢，這將有助於墨西哥未來的發展。

And we mentioned it before, I repeat it once again.

我們之前提到過，我再重複一次。

We redid that analysis, the unit manufacturing cost in Mexico versus USA.

我們重新進行了分析，比較了墨西哥和美國的單位製造成本。

And we took a relatively low-cost state within USA.

我們選擇在美國境內一個相對低成本的州。

On average -- and it changes sector by sector, but on average, the latest number is 1/7.

平均而言——它會逐個扇區地變化，但平均而言，最新數字是 1/7。

So 7 times larger manufacturing cost in the US versus Mexico, okay?

那麼美國的製造成本是墨西哥的 7 倍，好嗎？

If you -- On top of that, you add the internal dynamics, internal macro dynamics of Mexico.

如果你——在此基礎上，再加上墨西哥的內部動態、內部宏觀動態。

We again talk about this in these calls, but it is important.

我們在這些電話中再次討論了這一點，但這很重要。

This point about leverage is very important.

關於槓桿的這一點非常重要。

If I learned one thing in my career in banking, is you should pay attention to leverage, which is the banking debt over GDP.

如果我在銀行業生涯中學到了一件事，那就是你應該專注於槓桿率，即銀行債務與 GDP 的比率。

It is 33% in Mexico as compared to 72% in Brazil, 110% in Chile, 200% in developed economies.

墨西哥為 33%，巴西為 72%，智利為 110%，已開發經濟體為 200%。

It's lower than Colombia, lower than Peru.

它比哥倫比亞還低，也比秘魯還低。

It is a very lowly leveraged country.

這是一個槓桿率很低的國家。

You have room in leverage to push the growth, internal growth, over time, over time, in a proper way without creating too much risk in the society, in the macroenvironment.

你可以利用槓桿作用來推動成長，隨著時間的推移，以適當的方式推動內部成長，而不會在社會和宏觀環境中造成太大風險。

If you put some of these structural factors, and I can go on and on, there are clear structural factors in our view that would help Mexico.

如果你把其中一些結構性因素考慮進來，我還可以繼續說下去，我們認為有一些明顯的結構性因素將有助於墨西哥。

And beyond that you are asking a very short-term question, though, this year, about the growth.

除此之外，您問的還是一個非常短期的問題，關於今年的成長。

I mean we told high single-digit, we'll stick by it.

我的意思是，我們說的是高個位數，我們會堅持下去。

And what I can tell you is what I just told in the previous answer, we are seeing very positive dynamics at the moment.

我可以告訴你的是我剛才在回答中提到的，我們目前看到了非常積極的動態。

We are already seeing, already seeing, the next three months in terms of production of loans, and we are seeing a very positive pipeline.

我們已經看到了未來三個月的貸款產出情況，我們看到了非常積極的前景。

We are seeing a very dynamic also consumer environment.

我們看到消費環境也非常活躍。

So the retail lending is also going to behave quite well in our view.

因此，我們認為零售貸款也將表現良好。

In short, we are quite positive.

簡而言之，我們非常積極。

The only way that we can show this to you is in the next quarterly call, you will see it.

我們向您展示這一點的唯一方法是在下一次季度電話會議上，您將看到它。

But don't push me to tell you a specific number.

但不要逼我告訴你一個具體的數字。

The only thing I can give you is a very high confidence that -- as it stands now, again, there are many uncertainties, we all know about that.

我唯一能給你的是非常高的信心——就目前情況而言，仍然存在著許多不確定性，我們都知道這一點。

But as it stands now, I can give you a very high confidence that loan growth will be delivered.

但就目前情況而言，我可以非常有信心地保證貸款將實現成長。

Then the Basel impact, we don't expect also no impact from Basel in 2026 and 2027 also.

然後是巴塞爾的影響，我們預計 2026 年和 2027 年巴塞爾也不會產生影響。

The only thing that we are now looking into, which is not finalized, so the final technical standards and the final judgment on this is there might be a bit more, not much, but a bit more in 2028 coming from operational risk.

我們現在正在研究的唯一一件事還沒有最終確定，因此最終的技術標準和對此的最終判斷是，2028 年來自營運風險的金額可能會多一些，雖然不是很多，但會多一些。

But it turned out that, given the fact that we don't face an output floor topic, because as you all know, we keep saying this to you all the time, our RWA density is 51%.

但事實證明，鑑於我們不面臨產出底線問題，因為眾所周知，我們一直在對你們說這一點，我們的 RWA 密度為 51%。

The average RWA density of the European banking system is 28%.

歐洲銀行體系的平均RWA密度為28%。

As such, we are not affected from output floor, and the impact on Basel for BBVA is going to be marginal this year and in the coming years to come.

因此，我們不會受到產出底線的影響，今年以及未來幾年，巴塞爾對 BBVA 的影響也將是微不足道的。

Thank you very much, Alvaro.

非常感謝，阿爾瓦羅。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Ignacio Ulargui。

Thaks very much for the presentation.

非常感謝您的演講。

I'm going to stick to one.

我將堅持一個。

Looking a bit to the outlook for growth in Spain, where do you see bigger competition?

稍微展望一下西班牙的成長前景，您認為哪裡的競爭更激烈？

Which segments you think are going to be the most competitive ones overall?

您認為整體而言哪些細分市場的競爭將會最激烈？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Ignacio.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧。

I mean the key competition which is affected mainly by price is mortgages, obviously.

我的意思是，主要受價格影響的關鍵競爭顯然是抵押貸款。

As always, it's a very price-sensitive product because typically, consumers buy a mortgage once, twice, maybe maximum 3 times a year, but that's it.

像往常一樣，這是對價格非常敏感的產品，因為通常消費者每年購買一次、兩次、最多三次抵押貸款，但僅此而已。

So they shop around and so on.

因此他們貨比三家等等。

And on that one, we are quite cautious.

在這一點上，我們非常謹慎。

You might have seen us very aggressive in mortgages in late 2023, beginning of 2024, but you might see us less -- having less appetite given where the prices are at the moment.

您可能已經看到我們在 2023 年末、2024 年初非常積極地發放抵押貸款，但考慮到目前的價格水平，您可能會看到我們的興趣減少。

So that's the only piece that might be affecting our loan growth expectations.

因此，這是唯一可能影響我們貸款成長預期的因素。

But beyond that, again, in the case of consumer, we have grown once again 280 basis points in the last four years in market share because we are growing our customer count.

但除此之外，就消費者而言，由於客戶數量的增加，我們的市場份額在過去四年中再次增長了 280 個基點。

This year we are again, again adding 1 million new customers to the Spanish client franchise.

今年我們再次為西班牙客戶特許經營增添了 100 萬新客戶。

Again, a big part of this, 1/3 in 6 months bring their payroll to us.

同樣，其中很大一部分是，三分之一的人在 6 個月內將工資單交給我們。

All of that is creating a larger retail franchise.

所有這些都在創造更大的零售特許經營權。

So consumer is going to be very good for us, I believe.

因此我相信消費者對我們來說會非常有利。

Enterprises, as I said, this is the segment that we want to go for.

企業，正如我所說，這是我們想要涉足的領域。

We are relatively underrepresented in our market shares.

我們的市佔率相對不足。

So that's also going to be really robust.

所以這也會非常強大。

And also the pipelines in Spain for that book is also very good.

而且這本書在西班牙的頻道也非常好。

I'm very happy to see the start of the year has been very strong.

我很高興看到今年的開局如此強勁。

So the only competitive and might miss part might be in mortgages versus our plan.

因此，唯一有競爭力且可能錯過的部分可能是與我們的計劃相比的抵押貸款。

And it depends on pricing.

這取決於定價。

If you give the price, you can also have very good market share gains and everything else in mortgage.

如果你給出價格，你也可以獲得非常好的市場份額收益以及抵押貸款中的其他一切。

That's what I would say, Ignacio.

這就是我要說的，伊格納西奧。

Thank you, Igna cio.

謝謝你，Igna cio。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Carlos Peixoto, CaixaBank.

卡洛斯‧佩索托 (Carlos Peixoto)，CaixaBank。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

A couple of questions from my side as well.

我也有幾個問題。

The first one would be on capital.

第一個問題是關於資本。

So I was wondering -- well, I believe you mentioned 20 basis points positive impact from management actions in the fourth quarter, half of which, meaning 10 basis points from SRTs.

所以我想知道 - 嗯，我相信您提到了第四季度管理行動帶來的 20 個基點的積極影響，其中一半意味著來自 SRT 的 10 個基點。

Do you have any expectation on how much capital could you free up either from SRTs or other management actions during 2025?

您是否預期 2025 年可以透過 SRT 或其他管理措施釋放多少資本？

Or to what extent this could help to curtail RWA growth?

或者這在多大程度上有助於抑制 RWA 成長？

Then still on capital, if you could detail the impacts or break down the impact from FX mark-to-market in the net monetary position, hyperinflation impact on -- in the first Q on CET1, it would be helpful.

然後仍然是資本問題，如果您可以詳細說明或分解外匯按市價計價對淨貨幣頭寸的影響，以及第一季惡性通貨膨脹對 CET1 的影響，這將會很有幫助。

And then on the Spanish banks tax, just wondering if you have already an estimate on how much it will be the levy to be paid over 2024 exercise?

然後關於西班牙銀行稅，我只是想知道您是否已經估算出 2024 年需要繳納的稅額是多少？

And also if you have an estimate on how much do you see as the bump up or the increase in the levy that results -- that will result from the acquisition of Sabadell given that the levy has a progressive nature?

另外，您是否可以估計一下，鑑於稅費具有累進性質，收購薩瓦德爾將導致稅費上漲多少？

So the total amount should be -- would be higher than it would be for Sabadell and BBVA standalone, and whether that could somewhat limitate or change your views regarding the offer?

因此總金額應該高於 Sabadell 和 BBVA 單獨的金額，這是否會在一定程度上限製或改變您對該報價的看法？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Very good, Carlos.

非常好，卡洛斯。

Maybe I'll start with the last one very quickly, with the second question and then maybe on the first one.

也許我很快就會從最後一個問題開始，然後再問第二個問題，然後再問第一個問題。

You are the architect, Luisa, why don't you talk about the SRTs?

你是建築師，路易莎，為什麼不談 SRT 呢？

But on the Sabadell thing, that tax topic is, it changes nothing about the strategic and also financial rationale of the topic.

但就薩瓦德爾事件而言，該稅務問題並沒有改變該主題的策略和財務原理。

So it doesn't affect our thinking about the transaction.

所以這不會影響我們對交易的思考。

So on the SRTs, what is the expectation for 2025 was the question.

因此，對於 SRT 來說，問題在於對 2025 年的期望是什麼。

Well, we generated all in, in the year close to 15 basis points through SRTs, and we expect to have a higher number for 2025.

我們今年透過 SRT 創造了接近 15 個基點的收入，我們預計 2025 年的數字會更高。

I think that's what we can say.

我想這就是我們可以說的。

We are, obviously, very active here, and we expect to generate more capital this year than what we did this -- the last year from the SRT dynamics.

顯然，我們在這裡非常活躍，我們預計今年將比去年從 SRT 動態中創造更多的資本。

Very good.

非常好。

Then you asked about the hyperinflation impacts.

然後你問惡性通貨膨脹的影響。

The full impact, it's Turkey and Argentina basically, the sum was 11 basis points in the fourth quarter.

整體影響基本上是土耳其和阿根廷，第四季總計為 11 個基點。

And for the year 2024, in total, it was 76 basis points.

到 2024 年，總計將達到 76 個基點。

As inflation comes down, obviously, that impact gets minimized, which then improves the P&L.

隨著通貨膨脹的下降，顯然這種影響會被最小化，從而改善損益表。

But for capital, as you know, this is neutral.

但對於資本來說，如你所知，這是中性的。

And there was a third question?

還有第三個問題？

Did I miss anyone?

我有沒有漏掉什麼人？

The Spanish -- the levy.

西班牙人——徵稅。

The banking tax.

銀行稅。

The banking tax, okay.

銀行稅，好的。

We did it.

我們做到了。

Okay.

好的。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you, Carlos.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。

Yes.

是的。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Britta Schmidt, Autonomous Research.

布里塔‧施密特 (Britta Schmidt)，自主研究。

Yes.

是的。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Just a couple of follow-ups.

只需幾個後續行動。

Just on the Mexican loan growth debate, I mean, your numbers already imply a very strong loan growth deceleration from 16% to, say, 8%.

僅就墨西哥貸款成長論點而言，我的意思是，您的數字已經表明貸款成長將大幅減速，從 16% 降至 8%。

Is that congruent with the current GDP outlook, or is this already a relatively cautious number?

這是否與當前的GDP前景一致，或者這已經是一個相對謹慎的數字？

And then secondly, am I right in assuming that if I put the numbers together, you're guiding to around low to mid-single-digit constant currency net profit growth in Mexico?

其次，我是否可以正確地假設，如果我把這些數字放在一起，您預測墨西哥的淨利潤將達到大約低到中等個位數的恆定匯率增長？

And just lastly, a clarification on capital.

最後，澄清一下資本。

With your loan growth, profit forecast and capital management measures, what sort of capital generation and basis points would you expect for 2025?

根據您的貸款成長、利潤預測和資本管理措施，您預計 2025 年將產生什麼樣的資本和基點？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very good questions, as always, Britta, again.

像往常一樣，布里塔，又一次提出了非常好的問題。

The -- Our numbers are based on a macro scenario of 1 percentage point growth in GDP, in Mexico in 2025.

我們的數據是基於 2025 年墨西哥 GDP 成長 1 個百分點的宏觀情境。

So completely aligned with a relatively pessimistic macro scenario that we are still -- because of the uncertainties that we are seeing.

因此，這與我們仍然處於相對悲觀的宏觀情景完全一致——因為我們看到了不確定性。

But despite that, we are seeing high single-digit growth in loans because that has always been the case.

但儘管如此，我們仍然看到貸款保持高個位數成長，因為情況一直如此。

You should take the nominal GDP growth in Mexico times, typically, the correlation is such that you go 1.4 times for BBVA and based on that -- let me ask you the other way around.

您應該將墨西哥的名目 GDP 成長率乘以，通常，BBVA 的相關性是 1.4 倍，基於此——讓我反過來問您。

This year, in Mexico, we grew 15.8%, okay?

今年，在墨西哥，我們的成長了 15.8%，好嗎？

If you take out completely the FX impact out of this, it's 12.6%, so 13%.

如果完全去除外匯影響，則為 12.6%，即 13%。

Would you have said that whatever we have lived in Mexico, in 2024, we would have produced -- isolating for the FX impact, we would have produced 13% growth?

您是否會說，無論我們在墨西哥過著怎樣的生活，到 2024 年，如果排除外匯影響，我們將實現 13% 的成長？

I go back to the same topic, Britta, of the leverage, of the leverage.

我回到同一個主題，布里塔，關於槓桿，關於槓桿。

It's such an underleveraged economy.

這是一個槓桿率過低的經濟。

It goes back to, again, Tequila Crisis.

這又回到了龍舌蘭危機。

It's such an underleveraged economy that we can grow comfortably without creating too much cost of risk because of that fact.

這是一個低槓桿的經濟，因此我們可以輕鬆地成長，而不會產生太多的風險成本。

You should know that -- I mean, we have a wonderful, for example, credit card franchise in Mexico, wonderful franchise.

您應該知道——我的意思是，我們在墨西哥擁有出色的信用卡特許經營權，出色的特許經營權。

It's like a dream portfolio that you can have.

這就像是一個你可以擁有的夢想投資組合。

Do you know how many credit cards we have in Mexico?

你知道墨西哥有多少張信用卡嗎？

8 million.

800萬。

Mexico is hundreds and -- millions of people.

墨西哥有數億人口。

Why we only have 8 million?

為什麼我們只有800萬？

Because it's an underleveraged economy.

因為這是一個低槓桿的經濟。

So do we -- in this context of 1% macro growth, do we still expect high single-digit?

那麼，在宏觀成長 1% 的背景下，我們是否仍預期高個位數成長？

For sure.

一定。

And as I said, the signals in the beginning of the year, they are very positive.

正如我所說，今年年初的信號非常積極。

So we are quite confident with that guidance.

因此，我們對該指導非常有信心。

I actually would hypothesize, and Luisa is looking into me not to say this, but I would hypothesize that we would upgrade that number in the first quarter.

我實際上會假設，而且路易莎正在調查我不要這麼說，但我會假設我們會在第一季提高這個數字。

Then on capital growth for 2025, this is also something that we obviously plan for, and this is the key number that we go after.

關於 2025 年的資本成長，這顯然也是我們計畫的事情，這是我們追求的關鍵數字。

On this one, Britta, I mentioned it very quickly as I was going through the pages.

關於這一點，布里塔，我在翻閱這些頁面時很快就提到了這一點。

It depends a bit on the growth.

這有點取決於生長。

We did tell you, we give you numbers and we deliver.

我們確實告訴過你，我們會給你數字，並且我們會兌現。

I hope you see our credibility in whatever we tell you in the guidance -- in every single call that I do, I tell you that we delivered the guidance, we delivered the guidance.

我希望你們能夠相信我們在指引中告訴你們的一切，無論我打了多少電話，我都會告訴你們，我們已經傳達了指引，我們已經傳達了指引。

It wasn't the guidance, but we were telling you that we would create -- on top of the regular payout, we would be creating around 50, maybe 60 basis points of capital on top, and it didn't happen this year.

這不是指導，但我們告訴過你，我們將在定期支出的基礎上，創造大約 50 個或 60 個基點的資本，但今年並沒有發生。

It was 21 basis points, for a very good reason, for a very good reason.

這是 21 個基點，有非常充分的理由。

We have put 156 basis points to growth, organic growth.

我們已將 156 個基點用於成長、有機成長。

That 156 basis points, it was 132 basis points in 2023, a year ago.

這是 156 個基點，而一年前，即 2023 年，這一數字為 132 個基點。

So if you take out that additional growth, we are growing our lending book 14% constant, 9%, 9.4% current.

因此，如果去掉這些額外的成長，我們的貸款帳簿將會成長 14%（固定）、9%（目前）、9.4%。

We are growing very nicely and profitably.

我們發展得非常好，利潤也很高。

And that takes more capital.

而這需要更多的資本。

Again, that same number, 156 was 132 in 2023, 101 or 102 in 2022.

同樣，這個數字 156 在 2023 年變成 132，在 2022 年變成 101 或 102。

So it's 50 basis points more in 2024 versus two years ago, because we are growing very nicely, very nicely.

因此，到 2024 年，與兩年前相比，成長率將增加 50 個基點，因為我們的成長非常好。

So when you ask me, what is the capital addition that you would have, it depends on growth, and we prioritize that growth because we do that profitably.

所以當你問我，你會增加多少資本時，這取決於成長，我們優先考慮成長，因為我們這樣做是有利潤的。

That's the future capital generation capacity of the bank.

這就是銀行未來的資本產生能力。

So this 50 basis points, 60 basis points that we told you, we were not expecting that we would have grown this much.

因此，我們告訴您的這個 50 個基點、60 個基點，我們沒有想到會成長這麼多。

And it's a wonderful news that we are growing this much because, again, it's profitable.

我們能夠實現如此大的成長真是個好消息，因為我們能獲利。

So we would hesitate to tell you that from now on, this is the number because you would see it in the figures in any case, depending on growth.

因此，我們不太願意告訴您從現在起這個數字，因為無論如何您都會在數字中看到它，這取決於增長情況。

The market impact, obviously, is important.

顯然，市場影響力很重要。

This year, we also had a very large, relatively large market impact.

今年我們的市場衝擊也非常大，比較大。

The market impact in 2024 was 47 basis points.

2024年的市場影響為47個基點。

In 2023, it was 31 basis points.

2023年為31個基點。

It depends on the market.

這取決於市場。

It depends on the growth.

這取決於成長。

The only thing that I will tell you is that the tangible book value growth that you see, 17% this year, average 18% in the last four years, that number, based on our planning, based on what we see at the moment, is going to be there.

我唯一要告訴你的是，你看到的有形賬面價值增長率是今年 17%，過去四年的平均增長率是 18%，根據我們的計劃，根據我們目前看到的情況，這個數字是會保持的。

Then depending on the growth, we can give that back to the shareholders or we put that into growth.

然後，根據成長情況，我們可以將其返還給股東或用於成長。

Thank you very much, Britta.

非常感謝，布里塔。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Andrea Filtri, Mediobanca.

安德烈亞·菲爾特里（Andrea Filtri），Mediobanca。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Just detailed questions on your assumptions behind your guidance, please.

請詳細詢問您指導背後的假設。

Can you please share your assumptions on the NII guidance with regards to interest rates, the shape of the yield curve, deposit beta, volume growth, and ALCO contribution?

您能否分享您對 NII 指引中有關利率、收益率曲線形狀、存款貝塔係數、交易量成長和 ALCO 貢獻的假設？

The same for Turkey on interest rates, inflation, loan growth, and the linkers contribution?

土耳其的利率、通貨膨脹、貸款成長和連結器貢獻也是如此嗎？

And what is Argentina's net profit contribution in your 2025 guidance?

您在 2025 年的預期中，阿根廷的淨利貢獻是多少？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Do you want to -- guidance, Luisa -- it's a very tough day.

你想要──指導一下，路易莎──這是非常艱難的一天。

Luisa is very sick.

路易莎病得很重。

I'm very sick.

我病得很嚴重。

We have Patricia in between, which is going to be definitely sick after today.

我們中間還有帕特里夏，今天之後她一定會生病。

But although you are sick, you are the expert.

但雖然你病了，你卻是專家。

Do you want to take the guidance?

您想接受指導嗎？

I would just highlight -- I mean I think that's very detailed guidance and questions that we shouldn't be providing in this call.

我只想強調一下——我的意思是，我認為這是非常詳細的指導和問題，我們不應該在這次電話會議中提供。

We can give you some feedback afterwards with the teams.

我們隨後可以透過團隊為您提供一些回饋。

But I would just say that, with regards to the view that we have in NII, our rate scenario in Spain is one that has terminal rates at 2% in -- by June.

但我只想說，就我們對 NII 的看法而言，我們對西班牙的利率情境是，到 6 月終端利率將達到 2%。

So that's the main assumption that underscores the guidance that we have with that NII sensitivity that we're managing towards that circa 5% number that we've already mentioned.

因此，這是主要的假設，它強調了我們對 NII 敏感度的指導，我們正在管理我們已經提到的約 5% 的數字。

So I would say that, that's the point.

所以我想說，這就是重點。

With regard to (inaudible) of the curves, we need to see.

關於曲線的（聽不清楚），我們需要觀察。

But I think the main relevant guidance is that 5% NII sensitivity that we manage through our ALCO portfolio.

但我認為主要的相關指引是我們透過 ALCO 投資組合管理的 5% NII 敏感度。

The questions regarding hyperinflation economies, I would just say that, here, -- having a view is that Turkey, as we expect, will be finalizing inflation around 26%, is the guidance that we have, 26.5%, with rates coming down by the end of the period at 31%.

關於惡性通膨經濟體的問題，我在這裡只想說，我們的觀點是，正如我們預期的那樣，土耳其的最終通膨率將達到 26% 左右，這是我們的指導值，即 26.5%，而到本期末通膨率將降至 31%。

So those are main assumptions.

這些是主要假設。

And with regards to the currency, I would just say that, typically, when we're looking at the year, we tend to use forward rates for our guidance numbers and for our outlooks.

關於貨幣，我只想說，通常，當我們回顧一年時，我們傾向於使用遠期利率作為我們的指導數字和展望。

So -- and that's across the board, I would say, except Argentina, where what we're using is our own internal research estimates of the currency, and we're -- there we're estimating a currency devaluation this year of around 28%.

所以 — — 我想說，這是全面的，除了阿根廷，我們使用的是我們自己內部的貨幣研究估計，我們 — — 我們估計今年阿根廷的貨幣貶值幅度將達到 28% 左右。

So I think that's the main -- most of the main topics that you were asking for.

所以我認為這就是您所詢問的主要內容——大部分主要主題。

You asked about the CPI linkers.

您詢問的是 CPI 連結器。

For you to know, Andrea, the CPI linker portfolio at the moment is EUR3.4 billion.

安德里亞，您要知道，目前的 CPI 掛鉤投資組合為 34 億歐元。

It is a natural hedge, as you know, against the net monetary position for the P&L purposes.

如您所知，它是針對損益表中的淨貨幣頭寸的自然對沖。

The net monetary position was EUR4.9 billion.

淨貨幣狀況為49億歐元。

Again, repeating, EUR4.9 billion is the net monetary position, EUR3.4 billion is the CPI linkers.

再重複，49 億歐元是淨貨幣頭寸，34 億歐元是 CPI 掛鉤貨幣。

So whatever CPI percentage that you take, you apply that to the EUR3.4 billion to get that natural hedge in place.

因此，無論您採用何種 CPI 百分比，您都可以將其應用到 34 億歐元中，以實現自然對沖。

You asked about Argentina's contribution in bottom line and so on.

您詢問了阿根廷在底線方面的貢獻等等。

We don't break it down, but the Argentina, as you can see from the presentation, the profit for 2024 was EUR182 million, relatively marginal in the context of the grandeur -- bigger BBVA.

我們沒有進行細分，但正如您從報告中看到的那樣，阿根廷 2024 年的利潤為 1.82 億歐元，與規模更大的 BBVA 相比，這個利潤相對較小。

It's going to be around that range.

它將在這個範圍內。

So it's not going to be -- we have to see this year passing in Argentina to be able to see better figures in the future.

所以，我們必須看到阿根廷今年的表現，才能在未來看到更好的數據。

But for this year, we are not planning a major hike or anything in the Argentinian figures.

但今年，我們沒有計劃大幅提高阿根廷的稅收數字，或做出任何改變。

We are quite positive, by the way, on Argentina, quite positive.

順便說一句，我們對阿根廷持非常積極的態度。

I think it is an option value.

我認為這是一個選擇價值。

We have had 2 relatively important, in our view, option values.

在我們看來，我們有 2 個相對重要的選擇價值。

Obviously, one of them was much larger, the Turkish option.

顯然，其中一個選項更大，即土耳其選項。

And that situation, we see very positive signals there.

在那種情況下，我們看到了非常正面的訊號。

We see also positive signals in Argentina, although a smaller option, and maybe will be -- become valuable maybe a bit longer timeframe.

我們也看到了阿根廷的正面訊號，儘管選擇範圍較小，但也許需要更長的時間才會變得有價值。

But in both countries, we are seeing very positive dynamics.

但在這兩個國家，我們都看到了非常正面的動態。

But at the moment, they are marginal in the context of the bigger BBVA.

但目前，與更大的 BBVA 相比，它們還只是邊緣銀行。

Thank you very much, Andrea.

非常感謝，安德里亞。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Hugo Cruz, KBW.

雨果·克魯茲，KBW。

Hi.

你好。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I just had a question around the cost of risk guidance for Mexico.

我只是想問墨西哥風險指導成本。

I think you [implied] some deterioration versus the second half '24.

我認為你暗示的情況與 2024 年下半年相比有所惡化。

Is that mix, or is it you actually being cautious in seeing some deterioration because of Trump?

這是混合情況嗎，還是你實際上對川普導致的情況惡化持謹慎態度？

Thank you.

謝謝。

It's mainly mix, Hugo.

主要是混合，Hugo。

Very good catch, and it's mainly mix, because we are growing more in retail than otherwise.

非常好的收穫，而且主要是混合，因為我們在零售方面的成長比其他方面更快。

Thank you, Hugo.

謝謝你，雨果。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Cecilia Romero, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的塞西莉亞·羅梅羅。

Thank you very much for taking my question.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

I have two.

我有兩個。

My first one is, could you remind us of your latest FX hedging strategy?

我的第一個問題是，您能否提醒我們您最新的外匯對沖策略？

Any updates on how you're managing your currency exposure?

關於您如何管理貨幣風險，有什麼最新進展嗎？

And my second one is, there has been rumours in the press that HSBC may be looking to exit Mexico, which could give one of your competitors the opportunity to engage in M&A and grow meaningfully in scale.

第二個問題是，有媒體傳言稱，匯豐銀行可能正在考慮退出墨西哥，這可能會給你們的競爭對手之一提供進行併購並實現規模顯著增長的機會。

How do you think this could impact the competitive environment?

您認為這會對競爭環境產生什麼影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Do you want to take the FX hedging, Luisa?

路易莎，你想進行外匯對沖嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, with the current FX hedging strategy, I remind you that we have in place hedges both for capital and for P&L.

好吧，根據當前的外匯對沖策略，我提醒您，我們已經針對資本和損益進行了對沖。

With regards to the capital hedging strategy, it hasn't really changed that much.

就資本對沖策略而言，實際上並沒有太大的改變。

We are still hedging around 62% of the excess capital in Mexico.

我們仍在對墨西哥約62%的過剩資本進行對沖。

That means that we have a sensitivity to a 10% depreciation, which is 9 basis points, and the cost of hedge is around 1 basis points per month.

這意味著我們對 10% 的貶值敏感度為 9 個基點，而對沖成本約為每月 1 個基點。

In Turkey, we're also actively managing the hedging strategy here.

在土耳其，我們也積極管理對沖策略。

We are reducing our excess capital hedge.

我們正在減少過剩資本對沖。

We see -- Again, we are constructive in the currency with regards to the forward, at least at the beginning of the year.

我們看到──至少在年初，我們對遠期貨幣持建設性態度。

So we are having around 5 basis points sensitivity to a 10% Turkish lira depreciation, with around -- a cost of hedge of around 0.5 basis points per month.

因此，我們對土耳其里拉貶值 10% 的敏感度約為 5 個基點，對沖成本約為每月 0.5 個基點。

I would also like to say that the Argentinian sensitivity is as was in the past, 2 basis points per 10% depreciation.

我還想說，阿根廷的敏感度與過去一樣，每貶值 10%，就會損失 2 個基點。

With regards to the P&L, I would like to say that, in general, our policy is to hedge around 40% to 50% of 12-month forward-looking results.

關於損益表，我想說，一般來說，我們的政策是對 12 個月前瞻性結果的 40% 到 50% 左右進行避險。

In the case of Mexico, we are currently hedging 60% of the expected 12-month forward.

就墨西哥而言，我們目前正在對沖預計 12 個月遠期匯率的 60%。

And here, we do have an option strategy that in the case of a tail risk evaluation would increase our hedges up to 80%.

在這裡，我們確實有一個選擇策略，在尾部風險評估的情況下，我們的對沖將增加至 80%。

And with regards to the rest of the geographies, Peru, Colombia, we are hedging around 30% of the 12-month forward, and in Turkey, around 20% of the 12-month forward.

對於其他地區，在秘魯和哥倫比亞，我們對 12 個月遠期債券的避險率約為 30%，在土耳其，我們對 12 個月遠期債券的避險率約為 20%。

And regarding the HSBC's potential exit, you said on Mexico -- we obviously don't comment on rumours and obviously, on others around these topics.

關於匯豐銀行可能退出墨西哥，您說過，我們顯然不會對謠言以及其他與這些主題相關的消息發表評論。

So I will not comment on anything, obviously, on that one.

因此，顯然我不會對此發表任何評論。

The only thing I would say is that -- I mean really, I've seen many banks in my career, and we have wonderful banks within BBVA, really wonderful banks.

我唯一想說的是——我的意思是，在我的職業生涯中我見過很多銀行，而 BBVA 內部就有很多很棒的銀行，真的很棒的銀行。

But what we have in Mexico is really unique, and we will continue to compete whatever happens.

但我們在墨西哥所擁有的確實是獨一無二的，無論發生什麼，我們都會繼續競爭。

Whatever happens, we will continue to compete.

無論發生什麼，我們都會繼續比賽。

I mean In general, the NPS in banking sector in different countries is around 30s, 40s NPS is the customer satisfaction score, 30s, 40s.

我的意思是一般來說，不同國家銀行業的NPS大概在30到40左右，NPS是客戶滿意度得分，30到40左右。

In some other geographies like in Spain, the industry is even lower and so on.

在西班牙等其他地區，該行業的發展水平甚至更低等等。

In Mexico, our bank has a customer satisfaction score of 70, 70, the second best from the traditional banks is like half of that and so on.

在墨西哥，我們銀行的客戶滿意度得分為 70，傳統銀行的第二名得分只有我們的一半等等。

So we have an amazing franchise in Mexico.

因此我們在墨西哥擁有令人驚嘆的特許經營權。

We have 25% market share.

我們擁有25％的市佔率。

You -- I hope you have seen that in the presentation, we have gained 87 basis points market share in the year.

我希望您已經在演示中看到，我們今年的市場份額增加了 87 個基點。

By the way, this is November numbers because the December numbers are not published yet.

順便說一句，這是 11 月的數據，因為 12 月的數據尚未公佈。

Our expectation is, we will be doing even better for the full year.

我們的期望是，我們全年的表現將會更好。

So it's going to be around 100 basis points.

所以它將在100個基點左右。

We have 25.4% market share at the end of November.

截至11月底，我們的市佔率為25.4％。

This is a wonderful franchise, the client franchise that we have, the fact that we are in the transactionality of the clients.

這是一個非常棒的特許經營權，我們擁有的客戶特許經營權，事實上我們處於客戶的交易之中。

We will compete, in short.

簡而言之，我們將會競爭。

That will not take more time.

這不會花費更多時間。

We will compete whatever happens.

無論發生什麼，我們都會參加比賽。

Thank you very much, Cecilia.

非常感謝，塞西莉亞。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Ignacio Cerezo, UBS.

瑞銀的 Ignacio Cerezo。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So it's around the customer spread in Mexico.

因此，它的客戶分佈在墨西哥。

We have seen more than 30 basis points reduction through the year, around 20 basis points only in the fourth quarter.

我們看到全年降息幅度超過 30 個基點，光是第四季就降息了 20 個基點左右。

Assuming that rates go down from the current 10% to levels of around 8%, if you can give us a view, basically, where do you think the spread is going to land, under that rate environment?

假設利率從目前的 10% 降至 8% 左右的水平，您能否給我們一個看法，基本上，您認為在這種利率環境下，利差將會下降到多少？

Thank you.

謝謝。

We don't guide quarterly spreads, Ignacio, but we have the NII sensitivity.

伊格納西奧，我們不指導季度利差，但我們有 NII 敏感度。

As you know, we gave the NII sensitivity 2.4%. 1.3% of that is to Mexican peso.

如您所知，我們給出的 NII 敏感度為 2.4%。其中 1.3% 為墨西哥比索。

We give the combined ratio.

我們給出綜合比率。

So we assume 100 basis points decline in the curve, both in Mexican peso and US dollar because a part of the balance sheet in Mexico is in US dollar. 2.4% is the impact of both.

因此，我們假設墨西哥比索和美元的曲線都會下降 100 個基點，因為墨西哥資產負債表的一部分是以美元計算的。 2.4%是兩者的影響。

If -- 2.4%, again, the breakdown is 1.3% plus 1.1% for dollar curve.

如果是 2.4%，那麼細分就是 1.3% 加上美元曲線的 1.1%。

If the curve comes down 100 basis points in Mexico, again, the sensitivity that you should keep in mind is 1.3%.

如果墨西哥的曲線下降 100 個基點，那麼你應該記住的敏感度是 1.3%。

Anything else?

還要別的嗎？

I think we are done, no?

我想我們已經完成了，不是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Maybe the only final thing I would add, because it wasn't asked, but I think it was -- we look into it at the beginning of the year even more on why are we so different from the analysts?

也許這是我最後想補充的一點，因為沒有人問過，但我認為——我們在年初就進一步研究了為什麼我們與分析師有如此大的不同？

I mean why are we -- are we subjectively positive and so on?

我的意思是為什麼我們——我們主觀上是正面的嗎？

The only thing I would say to you is that, when we look into the numbers -- and I've seen every single one of them, and the team analyses them day in and day out, to Patricia and the team -- what we see is that in Spain, in general, in general, the analyst community, you are undervaluing what we would be doing in our view in 2025.

我唯一想對你說的是，當我們研究這些數字時——我看過每一個數字，團隊也日復一日地對它們進行分析，對帕特里夏和團隊來說——我們看到的是，在西班牙，總體而言，分析師群體低估了我們在 2025 年會做的事情。

There's a clear difference in Spain.

西班牙的情況明顯不同。

Depending on the market, obviously, and we have given you our assumptions, which is 26.5% inflation, 30% interest rate at the end of the period and the forward in terms of the currency.

顯然，這取決於市場，我們已經給出了我們的假設，即通貨膨脹率為 26.5%，期末利率為 30%，貨幣遠期利率為 30%。

With those assumptions, we are clearly seeing a higher potential in Turkey versus what you are thinking.

透過這些假設，我們顯然看到土耳其的潛力比您想像的要大。

And then there is one important concept.

然後有一個重要的概念。

Given the uncertainty in Mexico, the currency obviously is important.

鑑於墨西哥的不確定性，貨幣顯然很重要。

And there will be, as I said, long-term and -- in terms of activity, in terms of the banking business, it's not going to change too much in my view, but the current uncertainty with the US and this and that, it might have an effect on currency.

正如我所說，從長期來看，就銀行業務活動而言，我認為不會發生太大變化，但目前美國的不確定性等可能會對貨幣產生影響。

Depending on what currency that you take, you are either undervaluing what Mexico would do or what the corporate center would do, because we are hedging some of those results.

根據您採取的貨幣，您要么低估了墨西哥會採取的行動，要么低估了企業中心會採取的行動，因為我們正在對沖其中一些結果。

If there's a huge devaluation in Mexico, the corporate center, we'll be delivering positive results.

如果企業中心墨西哥的貨幣大幅貶值，我們將獲得正面的結果。

So when I look into your numbers, the corporate center or Mexico, one of them is wrong.

因此，當我查看你們的數字、公司中心或墨西哥的數字時，發現其中一個是錯誤的。

When you sum those three things up, Spain, Turkey and Mexico and/or corporate center, that's the gap that we see.

當你把這三個因素加起來，西班牙、土耳其和墨西哥和/或企業中心，這就是我們看到的差距。

And our job is to deliver and to tell you that our numbers are the right ones.

我們的工作是傳達並告訴您我們的數字是正確的。

But it requires a lot of delivery, a lot of focus, and we'll keep doing it.

但這需要大量的交付和大量的關注，我們會繼續這樣做。

So we close here.

我們就到此結束。

The only other thing I would tell you is that -- again, Luisa, you are very sick, but you end up being here, so thank you for being here.

我唯一想告訴你的是——再說一次，路易莎，你病得很重，但你最終還是來到了這裡，所以感謝你來到這裡。

And see you next time.

下次再見。

See you next time.

下次再見。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, everyone, for participating.

感謝大家的參與。

And let me remind you that the entire IR team is available for any further questions you may have.

我要提醒您，整個 IR 團隊都願意回答您的任何其他問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。