Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to BBVA's second quarter results conference call.

早安，歡迎參加 BBVA 第二季業績電話會議。

I'm joined today by Onur Genc, our CEO; and Luisa Gomez Bravo, the Group CFO.

今天我們的執行長 Onur Genc 也加入了我的行列。以及集團財務長 Luisa Gomez Bravo。

As in previous quarters, Onur will start reviewing the group figures, followed by Luisa, who will go through the business areas results.

與前幾季一樣，奧努爾將開始審查集團數據，隨後路易莎將審查業務領域的業績。

Then, Onur will give a brief update on the offer to Sabadell shareholders, and finally, we will open the live to receive your questions.

然後，Onur 將向 Sabadell 股東簡要介紹要約的最新情況，最後，我們將開始直播以接受您的提問。

Thank you very much for participating, and now I turn the call over to Onur.

非常感謝您的參與，現在我將電話轉給 Onur。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Patricia.

謝謝你，帕特里夏。

Good morning to everyone.

大家早安。

Welcome and thank you for joining BBVA's second quarter 2024 earnings webcast.

歡迎並感謝您加入 BBVA 2024 年第二季財報網路廣播。

Let's jump into the presentation as always, starting with slide number 3.

讓我們像往常一樣開始演示，從第 3 張幻燈片開始。

On the left-hand side of this page, you can see our net attributable profit in the quarter reaching EUR2,794 million showing obviously another quarter of record results.

在本頁左側，您可以看到我們本季的淨利潤達到 27.94 億歐元，這顯然是另一個季度創紀錄的業績。

This figure is 38% above the results of the same quarter of last year and 27% above last quarter results.

這一數字比去年同季度的業績高出38%，比上一季的業績高出27%。

Our results, they represent EUR0.47 earnings per share, 28% quarter-over-quarter, and 42% year-over-year growth, both higher growth rates than the ones of the net attributable profit due to, obviously, to the positive impact of the share buyback programs that we executed.

我們的業績代表每股收益 0.47 歐元，環比增長 28%，同比增長 42%，這兩個增長率均高於歸屬淨利潤的增長率，顯然是由於積極的我們執行的股票回購計劃的影響。

And then the graph on the right-hand side of the slide, it shows the excellent tangible book value per share plus dividends growth.

然後投影片右側的圖表顯示了出色的每股有形帳面價值加上股息成長。

We had 20% increase year-over-year and the 2.4% growth in the quarter.

我們的年增 20%，本季成長 2.4%。

We always highlight the importance of this figure to all of you.

我們始終強調這個數字對大家的重要性。

We are very happy to see a solid number in the quarter, the 2.4%, despite all the market impacts, especially the upper movement of the interest rate curves and the Mexican peso depreciation in the quarter.

我們很高興看到本季實現了 2.4% 的穩定數字，儘管受到所有市場影響，特別是本季利率曲線的上移和墨西哥比索貶值。

On page number 4, our CET1 capital ratio at 12.75%, reflecting a 7 basis points decrease in the quarter, impacted by the market impacts, as I just mentioned in the previous page, but also due to a very positive development in our view of very strong lending growth, in our core markets, leading to market share gains.

在第4 頁，我們的CET1 資本比率為12.75%，反映出本季度下降了7 個基點，這是受到市場影響的影響，正如我在上一頁中提到的，但也是由於我們認為非常積極的發展我們核心市場的貸款成長非常強勁，導致市場佔有率增加。

I'm sure we can discuss that in the Q&A as well.

我相信我們也可以在問答中討論這個問題。

The 12.75% CET1 ratio obviously is much above our target range and regulatory requirements.

12.75%的CET1比率顯然遠高於我們的目標範圍和監管要求。

Regarding profitability, on the left-hand side -- on the right-hand side, sorry, on the page.

關於盈利能力，在左側 - 在右側，抱歉，在頁面上。

We continue to improve our metrics, reaching an outstanding 20% in return on tangible equity and 19.1% in return on equity in the first six months of 2024.

我們不斷改進指標，2024 年前 6 個月的有形股本回報率達到 20%，股本回報率達到 19.1%。

We have been truly looking forward to this day of reaching the 20% threshold on return on tangible equity for so many years, and it makes us really happy getting to 20%.

多年來，我們一直真誠地期待著有形股本回報率達到 20% 門檻的這一天，達到 20% 讓我們感到非常高興。

On page number 5, more important than in our view the 20%, the consistency of how we got there and the comparison with our competitors, which obviously to us is the most important measure of success.

在第 5 頁上，比我們認為的 20% 更重要的是我們實現目標的一致性以及與競爭對手的比較，這對我們來說顯然是衡量成功的最重要標準。

I do think we are doing really well.

我確實認為我們做得很好。

On the left-hand side, you see the evolution of our first half profits in current euros.

在左側，您可以看到以現價歐元計算的上半年利潤的演變。

Not only did we achieve almost, again, the mark of EUR5 billion of net reputable profit in the first six months of this year.

今年前六個月，我們不僅再次實現了幾乎 50 億歐元的淨利大關。

We managed to do it by increasing our six-month profits by nearly EUR1 billion in a consistent manner every year, every year.

我們透過每年持續將六個月的利潤增加近 10 億歐元來實現這一目標。

And then on the right side of the page, we wanted to compare our return on tangible equity evolution to that of our European and Spanish peers.

然後在頁面的右側，我們想要將我們的有形股權演變回報與歐洲和西班牙同行的回報進行比較。

As you can see, our 20% ROTE and its positive evolution, it clearly stands out.

正如您所看到的，我們的 20% ROTE 及其積極的演變，它顯然脫穎而出。

With these figures, we are clearly one of the most profitable banks out there.

從這些數字來看，我們顯然是最賺錢的銀行之一。

Moving to slide number 6.

轉到第 6 張投影片。

This page is a summary of the pages to follow where I will talk to you about the activity, the P&L, the revenue growth, costs, asset quality.

本頁是後續頁面的摘要，我將與您討論活動、損益表、收入成長、成本、資產品質。

So allow me to directly move to the next slide to talk to details in the respective pages.

因此，請允許我直接轉到下一張投影片，討論各個頁面中的詳細資訊。

So slide 7, as always, the summarized P&L of the quarter.

投影片 7 一如既往地總結了本季的損益表。

You can find the year-over-year quarterly evolution in the second column from the left in constant.

您可以在左起第二列中找到同比季度演變情況，保持不變。

And right next to it, in current terms, the third column from the left.

就在它旁邊，用目前的術語來說，是左起第三列。

Basically, the P&L continues its impressive evolution, thanks to the strong revenue growth, with an increase in gross income of 31% in constant and 28% in current euros, and obviously maintaining positive jaws.

基本上，由於強勁的收入增長，損益表繼續令人印象深刻的發展，按不變匯率計算的總收入增長了31%，按現值歐元計算增長了28%，並且明顯保持了正值。

And as a result of all of this, net attributable profit at the last line item, net attributable profit grows 37% in constant and 38% in current euros.

由於所有這一切，最後一項的淨利潤增長了 37%（以不變匯率計算）和 38%（以現價歐元計算）。

Slide number 8.

投影片編號 8。

The summarized P&L of the first half, I would once again highlight the very positive gross income evolution, which increases 31% in constant euros and 23% in current euros.

總結上半年的損益表，我將再次強調非常積極的總收入演變，以不變歐元計算成長 31％，以現值歐元計算成長 23％。

And then the strong gross income growth, coupled with the positive jaws, as is true for the quarter, it led to an outstanding recurrent net attributable profit of almost EUR5 billion, implying 37% growth in constant and 29% in current.

然後，強勁的總收入成長，加上本季的積極業績，帶來了近 50 億歐元的經常性淨利潤，這意味著不變成長 37%，經常成長 29%。

Slide number 9.

投影片編號 9。

Some light into the revenue breakdown and the quarterly evolution.

對收入細目和季度演變的一些了解。

In this page, we show that the excellent trend in revenues continues.

在本頁中，我們顯示收入的良好趨勢仍在繼續。

Showing the strength of our revenue generation capacity quarter-after-quarter.

逐季展現我們創造收入能力的實力。

First, our net interest income.

首先，我們的淨利息收入。

It keeps increasing, 17% versus last year and 1% compared to last quarter, driven by strong activity growth, especially in the last part of the quarter, and good customer spread management.

在強勁的活動成長（尤其是在本季度最後一段時間）以及良好的客戶傳播管理的推動下，該數字持續增長，與去年相比增長了 17%，與上季度相比增長了 1%。

Second, outstanding evolution of net fees and commissions, increasing 35% year-on-year and 4.4% versus last quarter, levered mainly on payments and asset management.

二是淨手續費及佣金變動突出，較去年同期成長35%，較上季成長4.4%，主要體現在支付和資產管理槓桿。

Third, very strong quarter in the net trading income heading, benefiting from a good quarter in the global markets unit and also from the positive mark-to-market of the FX hedges of the Mexican peso in the corporate center.

第三，淨交易收入的季度表現非常強勁，這得益於全球市場部門的良好季度表現以及企業中心墨西哥比索外匯對沖的積極按市價計價。

All-in-all, excellent growth in gross income.

總而言之，總收入大幅成長。

Again, 31% year-over-year and 13.9% quarter-over-quarter.

同樣，年增 31%，季增 13.9%。

Moving to slide number 10.

轉到第 10 號投影片。

In this page, we also wanted to provide you with the breakdown of that gross income by geography in current euros.

在此頁面中，我們還想向您提供按地區劃分的總收入明細（以現價歐元計算）。

In current euros, important, and gross income is growing year-over-year at double digits in all of our markets, 29% growth in Spain, 14% growth in Mexico, 47% growth in Turkey, and 16% growth in South America.

以當前歐元計算，我們所有市場的重要收入和總收入均以兩位數的速度逐年增長，西班牙增長 29%，墨西哥增長 14%，土耳其增長 47%，南美增長 16% 。

When you look into the quarterly trends, you see the continued strength of revenues in Spain, posting another record, basically.

當您查看季度趨勢時，您會發現西班牙的收入持續強勁，基本上創下了新紀錄。

And then despite a relatively large depreciation in Mexican peso, 8% depreciation in the quarter, it is important to register the fact that in current euros, we managed to keep the revenues stable.

儘管墨西哥比索貶值相對較大，本季貶值 8%，但重要的是要認識到，以當前歐元計算，我們設法保持收入穩定。

Thanks to a very robust activity, again, that came towards the end of the quarter.

再次感謝本季末的強勁活動。

You also see clear, clear recuperation recovery trends in this page for Turkey and South America.

您還可以在此頁面中看到土耳其和南美洲清晰可見的恢復趨勢。

In both cases, we are posting the best quarterly figures in current euros of the last few quarters, also implying better prospects looking into the future.

在這兩種情況下，我們都發布了過去幾季以歐元計算的最佳季度數據，這也意味著未來的前景更好。

And talking about the future, slide number 11.

並談論未來，第 11 號幻燈片。

Let me focus a bit more on activity and growth in loans, which has increased at group level to 10.7% year-over-year in June.

讓我更專注於貸款的活動和成長，6 月集團層級的貸款年增至 10.7%。

So great activity in the quarter.

本季的活動非常活躍。

Obviously, this is very good news for the coming quarters, also considering the fact that we deliver this growth in a profitable manner.

顯然，這對於未來幾季來說是一個非常好的消息，同時考慮到我們以盈利的方式實現了這一增長。

We measure this through return on capital metric, loan-by-loan, individually, and on a marginal basis to make sure that the growth comes with profitability.

我們透過資本回報率指標、逐筆貸款、單獨和邊際基礎來衡量這一點，以確保成長伴隨著獲利能力。

In the case of Spain, in the middle of the page, as we have been anticipating in previous quarters, loan growth has improved to 2.4%.

就西班牙而言，正如我們在前幾個季度所預期的那樣，在頁面中間，貸款成長率已提高至 2.4%。

And with our most profitable segments, consumer and credit cards, growing 8.3%, mid-sized companies, growing 5.5%.

我們最賺錢的領域是消費者和信用卡，成長了 8.3%，中型企業成長了 5.5%。

And the Mexico, loan growth has accelerated to 12.6% year-over-year, with consumer and credit cards growing 16.6% and SMEs growing 17.4%.

墨西哥的貸款年增速加快至 12.6%，其中消費者和信用卡成長 16.6%，中小企業成長 17.4%。

So in short, very good prospects for the future.

簡而言之，未來前景非常好。

Moving to slide number 12.

轉到第 12 號投影片。

On the left-hand side of the slide, we continue showing positive jaws at the group level, thanks to the good performance of gross income, as I mentioned before, and then costs are growing 19.5% below the group's average inflation.

在投影片的左側，我們繼續在集團層級表現出積極的態度，這要歸功於總收入的良好表現，正如我之前提到的，然後成本的成長速度低於集團平均通膨率 19.5%。

On the right side of the slide, you can see our efficiency ratio, which shows an outstanding improvement to 39.3%, breaking the 40% barrier.

在投影片右側，您可以看到我們的效率比，顯著提高至 39.3%，突破了 40% 的大關。

Again, we have been looking forward to this date for so many years, 362 basis points lower than last year.

再次強調，我們多年來一直期待這個日期，比去年低了 362 個基點。

We clearly remain with this number, clearly as the most efficient European bank.

我們顯然仍然維持這個數字，顯然是效率最高的歐洲銀行。

Slide number 13.

投影片編號 13。

On asset quality, they remain in line with our expectations and shows relative stability in a context of strong activity growth in the most profitable segments, as I was mentioning.

正如我所提到的，在資產品質方面，它們仍然符合我們的預期，並且在最有利可圖的細分市場活動強勁成長的背景下表現出相對穩定性。

On the left-hand side of the slide at the bottom of the page, our cost of risk slightly increased quarter-over-quarter to 142 basis points.

在頁面底部投影片的左側，我們的風險成本較上季略有上升，達到 142 個基點。

And the increase is mainly explained by two factors.

成長主要由兩個因素解釋。

First, the aforementioned activity growth in highly profitable but high cost of risk retail segments and emerging market geographies.

首先，上述活動在高利潤但高風險成本的零售領域和新興市場地區的成長。

In other words, the mixed impact.

換句話說，影響是混合的。

And second, Turkey that continued its gradual, but completely expected increase after abnormally low levels of cost of risk in 2023.

其次，土耳其在 2023 年風險成本異常低水準之後，持續逐步但完全符合預期的成長。

Then NPL ratio on the right bottom slightly improved to 3.3%, and our coverage ratio is also broadly stable at 75%, affected partially by some portfolio sales.

然後右下的不良貸款率略有改善至3.3%，我們的覆蓋率也大致穩定在75%，部分受到一些組合銷售的影響。

Slide 14.

幻燈片 14。

On capital, the CET1 ratio remains well above our target range despite decreasing by 7 basis points quarter-over-quarter in a quarter, largely constrained by, again quite a significant market-related impact, and as mentioned, marked positively by a very strong growth in lending activity.

在資本方面，儘管一個季度環比下降了7 個基點，但CET1 比率仍遠高於我們的目標範圍，這在很大程度上受到相當大的市場相關影響的限制，並且如上所述，其積極特徵是非常強勁的貸款活動的成長。

That lending activity brings us more capital, organic capital, more profits in the coming quarters.

貸款活動在未來幾季為我們帶來了更多的資本、有機資本和更多的利潤。

But obviously you get the hit in the quarter that you have that growth.

但顯然，你會在本季感受到成長帶來的衝擊。

But following the waterfall in the page, main drivers of the quarterly evolution.

但依照頁面中的瀑布圖，季度演變的主要驅動力。

The first, strong results generation, 73 basis points.

首先，強勁的業績產生，73 個基點。

Second, dividend accrual and AT1 coupons, minus 39 basis points.

其次，應計股利和AT1息票，負39個基點。

Third, minus 40 basis points due to the [RWAs] growth.

第三，由於 [RWA] 成長，負 40 個基點。

Again, a quarter in which this impact is higher than a typical one, given everything that I talked to you about, about the lending growth, which is, again, very positive for us.

考慮到我與你們談論的一切，關於貸款成長的一切，這一季度的這種影響高於典型的影響，這對我們來說再次非常積極。

And last, a bucket of others of minus 1 basis points -- minus 1 basis point, which comprises, among others, the hyperinflationary accounting credit in OCI because of the hyperinflationary accounting geographies, and the market-related impact, totaling minus 23 basis points.

最後，一系列其他負1個基點－負1個基點，其中包括OCI中由於惡性通貨膨脹會計地理而產生的惡性通貨膨脹會計信用，以及與市場相關的影響，總計負23個基點。

Again, also higher than usual, mainly due to depreciation of the Mexican peso in the quarter.

同樣也高於平常，主要是由於本季墨西哥比索貶值。

It is worth to say in this page, though, there is a bubble at the top.

不過，值得一提的是，在這個頁面中，頂部有一個氣泡。

It's important to highlight that our it's still very preliminary because we need to see many of the details coming out in the coming quarters.

需要強調的是，我們的計劃仍處於初步階段，因為我們需要在未來幾季看到許多細節。

But the Basel IV impact, it reduces from our previously guided stated below minus 40 basis points to below minus 15 basis points.

但巴塞爾 IV 的影響，它從我們先前指導的低於負 40 個基點降至低於負 15 個基點。

And looking ahead, let me emphasize that both our ability to keep generating capital and to continue reinvesting in growth at very attractive return on tangible equity levels, it remains intact.

展望未來，我要強調的是，我們繼續創造資本和繼續以非常有吸引力的有形股本水平回報率再投資於增長的能力都保持完好。

And we clearly maintain our 40% to 50% payout distribution policy and fully committed we are to distribute any excess capital above 12% CET1 ratio.

我們明確維持 40% 至 50% 的派息分配政策，並完全致力於分配高於 12% CET1 比率的任何超額資本。

Slide 15.

幻燈片 15。

Our strategic progress, new customer acquisition on this page.

我們的策略進展、新客戶獲取在此頁面。

Many times before I said it, but the most healthy way of growing the balance sheet is in our view, growing the franchise of clients.

我之前已經說過很多次了，但我們認為，擴大資產負債表最健康的方式是擴大客戶的特許經營權。

And in that sense, we acquired 5.6 million new customers in the first half, continuing our upward trend.

從這個意義上說，我們上半年獲得了 560 萬新客戶，繼續保持上升趨勢。

And I particularly would like to highlight again the digital share here, 67% of these customers, they came from pure digital acquisition channels.

我特別想再次強調這裡的數位份額，其中 67% 的客戶來自純數位獲取管道。

Slide 16.

幻燈片 16。

Another pillar of our strategy, sustainability.

我們策略的另一個支柱是永續發展。

It's an incredible business opportunity where we continue to deliver quarter-after-quarter, even above our expectations.

這是一個令人難以置信的商業機會，我們將繼續每季交付成果，甚至超越我們的預期。

In the first six months of 2024, we have channeled EUR46 billion in sustainable business and the total of EUR252 billion since 2018.

2024 年前六個月，我們已投入 460 億歐元用於永續業務，自 2018 年以來總計投入 2,520 億歐元。

We remain very committed to accompany our clients in their decarbonization path, and as such, this quarter, it's in the bottom of the page, but this quarter, we have also set decarbonization targets for 2030 in two new sectors, aluminum at a global level and real estate in Spain, which is the core of our portfolio, that add to the other eight sectors where we already have clear portfolio decarbonization targets.

我們仍然非常致力於陪伴我們的客戶走上脫碳之路，因此，本季度，它位於頁面底部，但本季度，我們還在兩個新行業（全球範圍內的鋁業）設定了2030 年的脫碳目標西班牙的房地產是我們投資組合的核心，這增加了我們已經制定了明確的投資組合脫碳目標的其他八個行業。

Slide number 17.

投影片編號 17。

I also would like to highlight our positive impact on the society, as always, as a result of our activity, in the first half of this year, we have helped 75,000 families buy their homes.

我還想強調我們對社會的正面影響，一如既往，由於我們的活動，今年上半年我們已經幫助 75,000 個家庭購買了房屋。

We have awarded more than 340,000 new loans to SMEs and self-employed individuals, and we continue to finance around 70,000 larger corporates in their growth.

我們已向中小企業和自營商發放了超過 34 萬筆新貸款，並繼續為約 7 萬家大型企業的發展提供融資。

We also mobilized EUR11 billion in financing for inclusive growth, like social housing, like infrastructure, social infrastructure, hospitals, in the first six months of this year.

今年前六個月，我們還動員了 110 億歐元的融資用於包容性成長，例如社會住宅、基礎設施、社會基礎設施、醫院。

As we grow our activity, it's a simple message but an important one, we promote employment, we promote investment, we promote welfare in the society.

隨著我們活動的開展，這是一個簡單但重要的訊息，我們促進就業，我們促進投資，我們促進社會福利。

And finally, slide number 18.

最後是第 18 號投影片。

In this chapter regarding our 2021, 2024 goals announced on the Investor Day.

本章內容涉及我們在投資者日宣布的 2021 年、2024 年目標。

As always, I will choose to not go into each one of them for time purposes, but all the metrics -- on all the metrics, we are clearly, clearly on a path of significant overperformance versus originally established goals.

像往常一樣，出於時間考慮，我將選擇不逐一討論其中的每一個指標，而是討論所有指標——在所有指標上，我們顯然正在走上一條與最初設定的目標相比顯著超額績效的道路。

And now for the business areas update, I turn it to Luisa.

現在，關於業務領域的最新情況，我將其交給路易莎。

Luisa?

路易莎？

Thank you very much, Onur, and good morning, everyone.

非常感謝奧努爾，大家早安。

We're starting with Spain on slide number 20.

我們從第 20 號幻燈片上的西班牙開始。

As you can see in the slide, Spain has delivered outstanding record results in the second quarter of 2024, exceeding the EUR1 billion in the quarter, which is an amazing milestone driven by an outstanding performance in all P&L headings on the back of strong commercial momentum.

正如您在幻燈片中所看到的，西班牙在2024 年第二季度取得了出色的創紀錄業績，該季度超過10 億歐元，這是一個令人驚嘆的里程碑，得益於強勁的商業勢頭，所有損益表的優異表現。

The sound activity trends already observed in the first quarter of the year have been confirmed in the second quarter.

今年第一季已經觀察到的良好活動趨勢在第二季得到了證實。

New loan production has increased by 12% in the first six months of the year, leading to a 2.4% loan book growth, above the system average.

今年前 6 個月，新貸款產量增加了 12%，導致貸款帳簿成長 2.4%，高於系統平均。

In such a context, we are reviewing upwards our loan growth expectations for 2024.

在此背景下，我們正在上調 2024 年的貸款成長預期。

We now expect the loan book to grow at low single digit in 2024 and to continue gaining market share.

我們現在預計 2024 年貸款帳簿將以低個位數成長，並繼續擴大市場份額。

This is clearly reflected in the P&L, which shows impressive year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, driven by strong core revenue increases.

這清楚地反映在損益表中，在核心收入強勁增長的推動下，損益表顯示出令人印象深刻的同比和環比增長。

NII continues to grow on a quarterly basis, levered on activity growth and effective price management.

由於活動成長和有效的價格管理，NII 繼續按季度增長。

As you can see on this slide, the customer spread has remained flat in the quarter, despite declining rates.

正如您在這張投影片中所看到的，儘管費率有所下降，但本季的客戶利差仍保持穩定。

Fees have also showed another very positive performance in the quarter, mainly explained by the strong contribution coming from asset management and credit cards.

本季的費用也表現出非常積極的表現，這主要是由於資產管理和信用卡的強勁貢獻。

Expenses have remained flat quarter-on-quarter, and efficiency has continued to improve to an outstanding 35.4% cost-to-income ratio in the first half of the year.

費用較上月持平，效率持續提高，上半年成本收入比達 35.4%，表現優異。

Finally, on asset quality, really no major developments, trends remain solid cost of risk at 38 basis points, fairly in line with our guidance.

最後，在資產品質方面，確實沒有重大進展，風險成本趨勢仍然穩定在 38 個基點，與我們的指導相當一致。

All in, these very solid underlying trends have led us to also improve our P&L guidance for the year.

總而言之，這些非常堅實的基本趨勢也促使我們改善了今年的損益指引。

We now expect NII to grow at low teens.

我們現在預計 NII 將以十幾歲以下的速度成長。

Remember, we had double-digit growth before.

請記住，我們之前曾實現過兩位數的成長。

Now we are expecting to grow at low teens on NII on the back of strong activity growth and higher than expected rates by the end of the year.

現在，由於活動成長強勁且年底成長率高於預期，我們預計 NII 將以低十幾歲的速度成長。

But we are also reviewing upward our fees.

但我們也在審查上調我們的費用。

Fees are expected to grow at mid-single-digit, where we had a slight growth of positive bias before.

費用預計將以中個位數成長，之前我們的正面偏見略有增長。

We are going to be growing fees at mid-single-digit in 2024, and expenses are also expected to increase below 5%, maintaining the efficiency ratio at current levels.

到 2024 年，我們的費用將以中個位數成長，預計支出增幅也將低於 5%，從而將效率比維持在當前水準。

In conclusion, we're extremely happy with the results of Spain this quarter and in the half year, and with the improved outlook for the P&L as well.

總之，我們對西班牙本季和半年的業績以及損益表前景的改善感到非常滿意。

Moving on to Mexico in slide 21.

繼續幻燈片 21 中的墨西哥。

One more quarter of very strong earnings coming from Mexico reaching the EUR2.9 billion in the first half of the year on the back of sound activity dynamics and effective price managing.

在良好的經濟活動動態和有效的價格管理的支持下，墨西哥的收入在上半年又成長了四分之一，達到 29 億歐元。

Looking specifically at the quarter, I would like to highlight the strong business dynamics in terms of new lending flows.

具體來看本季度，我想強調新貸款流量方面強勁的業務動態。

New flows have grown by 13% quarter-on-quarter with very favorable trends across the board.

新流量較上季成長 13%，整體趨勢非常有利。

As we anticipated in the last quarter, this quarter loan growth has accelerated in wholesale portfolios, while the positive performance in retail lending has remained.

正如我們在上個季度所預期的那樣，本季批發投資組合的貸款成長加速，而零售貸款的正面表現仍然存在。

This led to a more balanced loan growth between these segments, leading to a total loan growth of close to 13% year-on-year.

這使得這些細分市場之間的貸款成長更加平衡，導致總貸款年增率接近13%。

This sound lending momentum continues to drive NII growth close to 7% year-on-year, while customer spread is roughly stable in the quarter.

這種良好的貸款動能持續推動NII年成長接近7%，而本季客戶利差大致穩定。

Managing the cost of deposits continues to be a key priority for BBVA Mexico, considering our large deposit base.

考慮到我們龐大的存款基礎，管理存款成本仍然是 BBVA Mexico 的首要任務。

In fact, this strategy is what partially explains NII being broadly in flat in the quarter.

事實上，這一策略部分解釋了本季度 NII 基本持平的原因。

In a context of accelerated loan growth, we have relied to a greater extent on market financing to fund activity growth, leading to a higher wholesale funding costs.

在貸款加速成長的背景下，我們更依賴市場融資來為活動成長提供資金，導致批發融資成本更高。

Having said that, as you can see in the slide, around we have sound underlying trends in core drivers for Mexico NII, which remains strong activity and wide customer spread.

話雖如此，正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們在墨西哥 NII 的核心驅動因素方面擁有良好的潛在趨勢，該驅動力仍然保持強勁的活動和廣泛的客戶分佈。

As such, we expect NII to continue growing over the coming quarters.

因此，我們預計 NII 在未來幾季將繼續成長。

Fees remained at very high levels, supported by robust activity and transactionality and an increasing contribution from asset management and CIB business, while expense growth has decelerated in the quarter.

在強勁的活動和交易以及資產管理和 CIB 業務貢獻不斷增加的支撐下，費用仍保持在非常高的水平，而本季度費用增長有所放緩。

All-in-all, strong revenue growth drives efficiency ratios to a remarkable 30.4%, lower than the last quarter and the first -- and a very outstanding mark for the first half of the year.

總而言之，強勁的營收成長將效率比率推至引人注目的 30.4%，低於上一季和第一季度，這也是今年上半年的一個非常出色的成績。

Finally, on asset quality, the increase in impairments is consistent with the economic cycle and our growth strategy focused on retail segments.

最後，在資產品質方面，減損的增加與經濟週期以及我們專注於零售領域的成長策略一致。

In a context of higher rates than previously anticipated for the rest of the year, we now expect the cost of risk to stand at around current levels in 2024.

鑑於今年剩餘時間的利率高於先前的預期，我們現在預計 2024 年的風險成本將維持在目前水準附近。

With these results, we remain confident on our capacity to deliver on the guidance that we committed to the market at the beginning of the year for Mexico.

有了這些結果，我們對實現年初向墨西哥市場承諾的指導的能力仍然充滿信心。

Going to slide 22.

轉到投影片 22。

In Turkey, the franchise has reported a net profit of EUR351 million in the first half of the year.

在土耳其，該特許經營公司上半年淨利為 3.51 億歐元。

This has been supported by higher NII, benefiting from nominal activity growth, and an improved customer spread in Turkish lira, favored by higher lending yields.

這得益於名目活動成長帶來的較高的NII，以及受益於較高貸款收益率的土耳其里拉客戶利差的改善。

Higher fees, mainly from payment services, brokerage, and asset management, while trading income remains at a very strong level despite the quarterly decline.

費用上漲，主要來自支付服務、經紀和資產管理，而交易收入儘管季度下降，但仍保持在非常強勁的水平。

And very significant lower hyperinflation adjustment, thanks to the deceleration of the quarterly inflation, which you see there on the footnote, the quarterly inflation has gone down to 8.4% in the second quarter versus 15.1% in the first quarter.

惡性通貨膨脹調整非常顯著，由於季度通貨膨脹的減速，您可以在腳註中看到，第二季度的季度通貨膨脹率已降至 8.4%，而第一季為 15.1%。

We see a normalization in cost of risk due to the ongoing macro rebalancing, which is in any case expected to be manageable and within the guidance that we have given to the market.

由於正在進行的宏觀再平衡，我們看到風險成本正常化，無論如何，預計這都是可控的，並且在我們向市場提供的指導範圍內。

The cost of risk increased to 84 basis points in the first half after what we've always maintained was an abnormally low level in 2023, mainly due to higher provisioning needs today in retail.

在我們一直維持的 2023 年異常低水準之後，上半年風險成本上升至 84 個基點，這主要是由於當今零售業的撥備需求增加。

After the strong performance of the franchise in the first half of 2024, we now expect net income for the second half of 2024 to be in line with a slightly higher or slightly higher than the first half of the year under a continued normalization of regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.

經過2024年上半年特許經營的強勁表現，我們現在預計在監管和監管持續常態化的情況下，2024年下半年的淨利潤將與上半年持平或略高於上半年。

So improved guidance and outlook for Turkey as well.

因此，土耳其的指導和前景也得到了改善。

Going to South America on slide 23.

第 23 張幻燈片上的《前往南美洲》。

The region has shown sound earnings contributions well during the first half of 2024 by achieving a net profit of EUR317 million, paving the way for a gradual recovery.

該地區在2024年上半年表現出了良好的獲利貢獻，實現淨利潤3.17億歐元，為逐步復甦鋪平了道路。

During the first half of the year, revenues showed a positive trend, sound NII performance driven by loan growth focus in the most profitable segments and an improving customer spread across the countries, and strong evolution of fees and higher NTI.

上半年，收入呈現出積極的趨勢，由於貸款成長集中在最有利可圖的細分市場和各國客戶分佈的改善，以及費用和更高的 NTI 的強勁發展，推動了良好的 NII 表現。

These trends were somewhat offset by a higher hyperinflation adjustment in Argentina due to a higher inflation rate in the first half of 2024 compared to the last year.

由於 2024 年上半年通膨率高於去年，阿根廷惡性通膨調整幅度加大，在一定程度上抵銷了這些趨勢。

But with a positive quarterly trend, which has been significant because, as you see also in the footnote, it means that the second quarter inflation has come down to 19% versus the first quarter one, which was 52%.

但季度趨勢呈現正面趨勢，這一點非常重要，因為正如您在腳註中看到的那樣，這意味著第二季通膨率已降至 19%，而第一季通膨率為 52%。

Expense growth has continued to be pressured by inflation, but it is important to highlight that on a quarterly basis, cost growth has slowed down, mainly in Peru and Colombia.

費用增長繼續受到通貨膨脹的壓力，但必須強調的是，按季度來看，成本增長已經放緩，主要是在秘魯和哥倫比亞。

Finally, cost of risk has remained stable at 312 basis points, in line with the macroeconomic expectations for the region.

最後，風險成本穩定在 312 個基點，符合該地區的宏觀經濟預期。

In this regard, we expect the cost of risk for the year to stand below current levels but slightly above than our previous guidance of around 280 basis points.

在這方面，我們預計今年的風險成本將低於當前水平，但略高於我們之前約 280 個基點的指導。

And now, back to Onur for the final remarks and on the quarterly results and the update on the

現在，回到奧努爾，聽聽最後的評論、季度業績和最新情況

[OPA].

[OPA]。

Thank you, Luisa.

謝謝你，路易莎。

So for the main takeaways from the presentation of the results on page 24, let me not take time by repeating, because we always have this commitment that we will be finishing by the hour, but let me not take time repeating the messages.

因此，對於第 24 頁結果介紹的主要要點，請允許我不要花時間重複，因為我們始終有這樣的承諾，即我們將按小時完成，但請允許我不要花時間重複這些資訊。

But in our view, it was a quarter that made us really happy, as Luisa was also saying, reaching elusive milestones that we thought we were unreachable some years ago.

但在我們看來，正如路易莎所說，這是一個讓我們真正感到高興的季度，達到了幾年前我們認為無法實現的難以捉摸的里程碑。

I mean, you have it in that little box on the right-hand side, delivering 20% in ROTE, return on tangible equity, a growth of 20% in tangible book value per share, plus dividends.

我的意思是，你把它放在右手邊的那個小盒子裡，提供 20% 的 ROTE、有形股本回報率、每股有形賬面價值增長 20% 以及股息。

And breaking the 40% barrier in efficiency.

並突破了40%的效率障礙。

In our view, amazing numbers in that sense.

我們認為，從這個意義上來說，這是一個驚人的數字。

I know that many of my colleagues from BBVA are listening to this call.

我知道 BBVA 的許多同事都在聆聽這個呼籲。

A shout-out to our people of BBVA, you are doing an amazing job.

向我們的 BBVA 員工致敬，你們的工作非常出色。

You should be very proud of yourselves.

你應該為自己感到非常驕傲。

Then, slide number 25 and forward, it's basically the update on the OPA.

然後，從第 25 張投影片開始，基本上就是 OPA 的更新。

Given the interest that you have shown on the matter, which is understandable, we would like to update you on the latest regarding the takeover bid process.

鑑於您對此事表現出的興趣（這是可以理解的），我們想向您通報有關收購要約流程的最新資訊。

So slide number 26.

所以投影片 26。

Basically, where we left you off and where we are.

基本上，我們離開你的地方以及我們現在的位置。

First, this is about creating a stronger and more profitable franchise with an increased lending capacity to families and businesses estimated at EUR5 billion per year.

首先，這是為了創建一個更強大、更有利可圖的特許經營權，增加向家庭和企業提供的貸款能力，估計每年可達 50 億歐元。

Second, the transaction shows our strategic appetite for gaining scale in our core markets and particularly a strategic push for the SME segment in Spain.

其次，此交易顯示了我們在核心市場擴大規模的策略意願，特別是對西班牙中小企業領域的策略性推動。

Third, given especially the ever-increasing need we have been experiencing to invest in technology and the associated large, fixed costs, there are substantial synergies in the combination.

第三，特別是考慮到我們對技術投資的需求不斷增長以及相關的大量固定成本，這種組合會產生巨大的協同效應。

And fourth, due to these significant synergies, we decided to present an extremely attractive offer to Banco Sabadell shareholders, while at the same time preserving the value creation for BBVA shareholders.

第四，由於這些顯著的綜效，我們決定向 Banco Sabadell 股東提出極具吸引力的要約，同時保留為 BBVA 股東創造的價值。

And lastly, as an update, the takeover process is progressing positively in full accordance with the plan, as we will show you later in detail.

最後，作為更新，接管過程正在完全按照計劃積極進展，我們稍後將向您詳細介紹。

On page 27, I would like to give you some additional details on synergies and earnings accretion.

在第 27 頁，我想向您提供一些有關協同效應和收益成長的其他詳細資訊。

On the left-hand side of the page, we are now able to give you some more color on the breakdown of the already announced EUR850 million synergies.

在頁面左側，我們現在可以為您提供有關已宣布的 8.5 億歐元協同效應細目的更多資訊。

The split that we have put in May into our regulatory filings initially, and we are making it transparent to you today.

我們最初在五月將這一拆分納入了監管文件中，今天我們將向您公開這一情況。

First, the breakdown of the EUR850 million. EUR450

首先，8.5億歐元的細目。 450歐元

million coming from administrative and technology savings, as we have been explaining since the beginning of this process, technology is one of the largest and growing expense headings for both banks and such line items offer the most clear scale advantages, therefore representing the largest part of the synergies.

百萬來自行政和技術節省，正如我們自該流程開始以來一直在解釋的那樣，技術是兩家銀行最大且不斷增長的支出項目之一，此類項目提供了最明顯的規模優勢，因此代表了銀行最大部分的協同作用。

Then EUR300 million in personnel savings.

然後節省 3 億歐元的人員成本。

Third, EUR100 million on financing savings coming from a larger and more diversified group being reflected in the reduction of larger Sabadell risk spreads to BBVA ones.

第三，來自規模更大、更多元化的集團的 1 億歐元融資節省體現在薩瓦德爾與 BBVA 風險利差的降低。

It's basically equalizing the spread, Sabadell had a larger spread.

基本上是平分差，薩瓦德爾的差價更大。

Now, we are equalizing it for the wholesale funding tranches as such fundings expire well throughout the time.

現在，我們將其用於批發融資部分，因為此類資金在整個時間內都會到期。

As you would see, compared to some other integrations you might have seen, the percentage of personnel savings is lower than usual, and more value is attributed to administrative and technology savings.

正如您所看到的，與您可能見過的其他一些整合相比，人員節省的百分比低於平常，更多的價值歸因於管理和技術節省。

This is, in our view, very fair, given the different restructurings in both banks we have been executing in the past few years.

我們認為，考慮到過去幾年我們在兩家銀行進行的不同重組，這是非常公平的。

This transaction is about keeping and growing the franchise of Sabadell, especially the SME franchise in Spain.

這項交易旨在保留和發展薩瓦德爾的特許經營權，特別是西班牙的中小企業特許經營權。

In that context, I want to highlight that our estimates for the rationalization of the branch network in Spain has been limited to less than 10% of the combined network, equivalent to, as you see on the page, 300 branches of the approximately 870 branch offices identified in the combined group with a proximity of less than 500 meters.

在這方面，我想強調的是，我們對西班牙分行網絡合理化的估計僅限於合併網絡的 10% 以下，相當於您在頁面上看到的約 870 個分行中的 300 個分行合併組中確定的辦公室距離小於500 公尺。

So we have 870 branches within 500 meters, from that perimeter, we are basically saving 300 branches.

所以我們在500公尺內有870個樹枝，從這個週長來看，我們基本上省了300個樹枝。

This whole breakdown obviously is also the key driver of the restructuring costs that we have announced.

整個細分顯然也是我們宣布的重組成本的關鍵驅動因素。

As you can imagine, if cost synergies mostly come from network restructuring, branch closures, redundancy of -- especially younger personnel, which are typically our colleagues in the branches, then the multiple of restructuring costs to synergies, it goes up.

正如你可以想像的那樣，如果成本協同效應主要來自網路重組、分支機構關閉、裁員——尤其是年輕員工（通常是我們分支機構的同事），那麼重組成本與協同效應的倍數就會上升。

But this is not the case in this envisioned transaction.

但在本次設想的交易中，情況並非如此。

Hence, that has been in the analyst community as well.

因此，這也存在於分析師群體中。

There was some dialogue on this and so on.

對此等進行了一些對話。

We reconfirm our comfort in the numbers that we have been sharing with you.

我們再次確認我們對與您分享的數字感到滿意。

Then on the right-hand side of this page, given these substantial synergies, the fact that we will serve the same market, optimizing our costs, our IT systems, our administrative costs, this deal would then create value.

然後在本頁的右側，考慮到這些巨大的協同效應，事實上我們將服務於同一市場，優化我們的成本、IT 系統和管理成本，這筆交易將創造價值。

It would create value for both BBVA shareholders and also for Sabadell shareholders.

它將為 BBVA 股東和 Sabadell 股東創造價值。

This is a win-win for both.

這對雙方來說都是雙贏的。

We create value and we share it.

我們創造價值並分享它。

That is why you see the EPS accretions in this page are positive for both banks.

這就是為什麼您會看到本頁的每股收益成長對兩家銀行都是正面的。

But I would like to draw your particular focus to the number at the bottom right for Sabadell EPS accretion.

但我想請您特別關注右下角薩瓦德爾 EPS 成長的數字。

This number, interestingly, did not receive much attention from you so far, but based on your own estimates, independently assessed end of April market consensus figures.

有趣的是，到目前為止，這個數字並沒有引起您的太多關注，而是根據您自己的估計，獨立評估了 4 月底的市場共識數據。

Our numbers are even better, but let's go with the market consensus, and looking into the earnings, the source of cash flow for a Sabadell shareholder, standalone versus being part of BBVA, earnings per share go up by 27%.

我們的數字甚至更好，但讓我們遵循市場共識，研究收入，Sabadell 股東的現金流來源，獨立與成為 BBVA 的一部分相比，每股收益增長了 27%。

I mean, the economic rationale, as you all know, is all about cash flow.

我的意思是，眾所周知，經濟原理完全與現金流有關。

And the 27% increase in earnings per share, it implies 27% more in cash flow through dividends, through sustained dividends along the time for Sabadell shareholders.

每股收益成長 27%，意味著透過股息、持續為 Sabadell 股東派發股息帶來的現金流增加 27%。

Market consensus, obviously, it keeps changing since April, but this number since then has stayed around 30%.

顯然，市場共識自4月以來一直在變化，但此後這個數字一直保持在30%左右。

And we have a lot of sensitivity on this.

我們對此非常敏感。

It remains around that number.

它仍然保持在這個數字附近。

It all goes back to the 50% premium we are offering to Sabadell shareholders on top of the last three-month average share price that premium is so extraordinary that it gives you these very clear cashflow related EPS accretion figures.

這一切都可以追溯到我們在過去三個月的平均股價之上向Sabadell 股東提供50% 的溢價，該溢價是如此之大，以至於它為您提供了這些與現金流相關的每股收益增長數據。

In short, let me not take more time here, but we reiterate our clear conviction that this is an extraordinarily attractive offer for Sabadell shareholders.

簡而言之，我不想在這裡花更多時間，但我們重申我們明確的信念，即這對 Sabadell 股東來說是一個極具吸引力的要約。

Moving to page number 29, and I only have one minute, so a summary of the calendar of the transaction.

轉到第 29 頁，我只有一分鐘的時間來總結交易日曆。

Basically, the process is advancing positively according to our initial plan and it's fully on track.

基本上，這個過程正在按照我們最初的計劃積極推進，完全步入正軌。

We filed all the relevant applications to regulators, and we have already received approvals from competition authorities in several countries.

我們向監管機構提交了所有相關申請，並且已經獲得了多個國家競爭主管機關的批准。

Also, we received, as you know, overwhelming support from BBVA shareholders in the extraordinary general meeting where the capital increased for the share exchange.

此外，如您所知，我們在臨時股東大會上獲得了 BBVA 股東的大力支持，此次股東大會為換股增資。

It was approved with an overwhelming 96% support.

該法案以 96% 的壓倒性支持獲得批准。

And now 09:59, I go back to Patricia for Q&A.

現在 09:59，我回到派翠西亞進行問答。

Thank you, Onur.

謝謝你，奧努爾。

We are ready now to start with the live Q&A session.

我們現在準備好開始現場問答環節。

So first question, please.

那麼第一個問題，請。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Maksym Mishyn, JB Capital.

Maksym Mishyn，JB Capital。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you very much for the presentation and taking our question.

非常感謝您的介紹並回答我們的問題。

So my one question would be on the cost of deposits in Spain.

所以我的一個問題是西班牙的存款成本。

I was wondering why they declined and how were you able to move part of term deposits back into site because their weight has reduced in a quarter as well?

我想知道他們為什麼拒絕，以及你如何能夠將部分定期存款移回現場，因為它們的重量在一個季度內也減少了？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mishyn, thank you for the question.

米辛，謝謝你的提問。

It's coming down because the curve is coming down a little bit.

它正在下降，因為曲線下降了一點。

And some of the large corporate and even public sector clients that we have, it's basically more or less automatically linked to the curve.

我們擁有的一些大型企業甚至公共部門客戶，基本上或多或少自動與曲線相關聯。

And given that large segment clients reducing the cost of deposits for that segment, the reflection of the weighted average is in that 91 basis points coming down to 87 basis points.

鑑於大型細分客戶降低了該細分市場的存款成本，加權平均值的反映是 91 個基點降至 87 個基點。

Thank you, Mishyn.

謝謝你，米辛。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

Francisco Riquel, Alantra.

弗朗西斯科·里克爾，阿蘭特拉。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

So my first question is on Mexico.

我的第一個問題是關於墨西哥的。

The NII is flattish in the quarter despite the 6% growth in loans.

儘管貸款成長了 6%，但本季的 NII 仍持平。

So you mentioned that you have resorted more to wholesale funding.

所以你提到你更多地求助於批發資金。

So I wonder what is the profitability of the new lending now that the loan-to-deposit is above 100% that you have to resort to wholesale funding.

所以我想知道現在貸存比超過100%，你必須求助於批發融資，新貸款的獲利能力是多少。

If you are front-loading these issuances or not.

您是否預先載入這些發行。

So if you can please elaborate on what's the NII trajectory going forward now that the loan-to-deposit is above 100%?

那麼，既然貸存比高於 100%，您能否詳細說明 NII 的未來軌跡是什麼？

On the Sabadell bit, I wonder if you can comment on the condition that you set regarding the antitrust approval.

關於薩瓦德爾問題，我不知道你能否評論一下你在反壟斷審批方面設定的條件。

I wonder if you will go ahead with the tender offer regardless of any outcome that may come from the antitrust authorities if you would agree if the CNMV were to wait for the antitrust approval before authorizing the tender offer.

我想知道，如果您同意 CNMV 在授權要約收購之前等待反壟斷批准，那麼無論反壟斷機構可能得出任何結果，您是否都會繼續進行要約收購。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Do you want to take the Mexico one, Luisa?

路易莎，你想買墨西哥的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, in the quarter, we managed the deposit base in Mexico in terms of wholesale deposits and wholesale funding, depending on where the pricing is.

嗯，在本季度，我們根據批發存款和批發融資管理墨西哥的存款基礎，具體取決於定價。

Sometimes we rely more on -- more costly deposits, which feed through the spread, and sometimes we rely more on wholesale funding.

有時我們更依賴成本更高的存款，這些存款透過利差產生，有時我們更依賴批發資金。

What happened this quarter is, as you mentioned, activity growth is higher, has increased significantly, especially on the wholesale side.

正如您所提到的，本季發生的情況是，活動成長更高，顯著增加，特別是在批發方面。

And we've gone to the wholesale financing, but at the same time managing the cost of deposits, decreasing some of the more expensive cost of deposits as well.

我們進行了批發融資，但同時管理存款成本，也降低了一些較昂貴的存款成本。

I think going forward, we're very comfortable with the profitability that we have, and we'll continue to manage the funding gap in this context.

我認為，展望未來，我們對現有的獲利能力感到非常滿意，我們將繼續管理這方面的資金缺口。

We do expect, however, for the second half of the year to grow in our, the customer deposit base because of seasonality.

然而，我們確實預計，由於季節性原因，今年下半年我們的客戶存款基礎將會成長。

When you look at the results in Mexico, typically the first half of the year in terms of retail and customer funds is slower in terms of growth than the second half, and we do expect that the credit gap in the following months will be maintained at the levels that they are, and we expect to be finishing with an LCR ratio, which is more or less the same one that we have today.

當你看墨西哥的結果時，通常上半年零售和客戶資金的成長速度慢於下半年，我們預計接下來幾個月的信貸缺口將維持在我們預期最終的 LCR 比率與我們今天的水平大致相同。

So we do expect customer deposits to increase and to continue managing the pricing of the deposits and the funding on the wholesale side accordingly.

因此，我們確實預期客戶存款會增加，並繼續相應地管理存款的定價和批發方面的資金。

Maybe just a quick addition on this one, because Paco, you were asking about the marginal profitability and marginal return on capital.

也許只是對此進行快速補充，因為帕科，您問的是邊際盈利能力和邊際資本回報率。

This is how we function as a bank.

這就是我們作為銀行的運作方式。

Every single loan given at the marginal level, meaning the additional funding needed for that loan, the marginal funding that is needed for that loan, is it justified with the loan prices that we have.

在邊際水平上提供的每筆貸款，意味著該貸款所需的額外資金，該貸款所需的邊際資金，是否與我們現有的貸款價格相符。

That's how we look into this.

我們就是這樣看待這個問題的。

But at a very high level.

但處於非常高的水平。

So you have to look into it at a granular level.

所以你必須仔細地研究它。

But at a very high level, the yield on loans you see it in the page as well, the Mexico, it's 14.4%, okay?

但在非常高的水平上，你在頁面上也看到了貸款收益率，墨西哥，是 14.4%，好嗎？

14.4%.

14.4%。

Our return on equity, in Mexico is 27%.

我們在墨西哥的股本回報率為 27%。

So wholesale funding at the marginal level, I can guarantee you that is very profitable and otherwise we wouldn't have been lending that number, okay?

因此，在邊際層面上進行批發融資，我可以向您保證，這是非常有利可圖的，否則我們就不會借出這麼多資金，好嗎？

Then your second question is on the antitrust topic for the Sabadell transaction.

那麼你的第二個問題是關於薩瓦德爾交易的反壟斷話題。

You asked about the content of this and also the process as I understand.

你問的是這個內容，還有我了解的過程。

So on both of them, on the content and on the process, the CNMC, the authority here for competition matters.

因此，在這兩個方面，在內容和過程上，CNMC，這裡競爭事務的權威。

As you all know, it's a highly regarded independent institution.

眾所周知，它是一個備受推崇的獨立機構。

It's up to them, and we have full respect for their decisions, and we have to wait for their decisions, for sure.

這取決於他們，我們完全尊重他們的決定，當然我們必須等待他們的決定。

But you have seen us in the different dialogues relatively confident on the competition-related aspects of this transaction for a few reasons.

但你在不同的對話中看到我們對這筆交易的競爭相關方面相對有信心，原因有幾個。

Number one, there is a clear methodology and there are clear precedents in this case.

第一，本案有明確的方法論和明確的先例。

And this is also being raised by the institution itself, saying that we have a clear methodology on this.

而機構本身也提出了這個問題，說我們對此有明確的方法論。

Because we have seen very recently some transactions in Spain where that methodology was applied, and CNMC has reiterated multiple times that they would use the same methodology.

因為我們最近在西班牙看到一些交易採用了這種方法，而中國有色集團也多次重申他們將使用相同的方法。

And there are clear precedents here.

這裡有明確的先例。

Looking into those precedents, we feel comfortable, number one.

回顧這些先例，我們感到很舒服，這是第一名。

Number two, again, based on the precedence and based on where we are today, after this transaction, BBVA will not be the largest player in Spain, will not be.

第二，同樣，根據優先順序和我們今天的情況，在這筆交易之後，BBVA 將不會成為西班牙最大的參與者，不會。

And even if you look into -- at a regional level, in certain segments, certain regions today, and in the recent transactions that were approved.

即使你在區域層級、某些細分市場、某些地區以及最近批准的交易中進行調查。

There were situations where there were larger players in certain regions, in certain segments, and so on.

在某些情況下，某些地區、某些細分市場等領域存在較大的參與者。

So if you look into the current market position of different players, I repeat once again, we are not the largest player.

因此，如果你看看不同參與者目前的市場地位，我再說一遍，我們不是最大的參與者。

We will not be the largest player after this transaction.

這次交易後我們將不再是最大的參與者。

And also, at different because it's a national market, the market functions and the market functions perfectly in terms of competition, as is, which does have some of those topics that some of you have been raising to us.

而且，不同的是，因為這是一個全國市場，市場在競爭方面發揮著完美的作用，這確實有你們中的一些人向我們提出的一些話題。

And then the third point I would put on the table is the triggers.

然後我要提出的第三點是觸發器。

I mean, it's based on European Commission, European Regulations, and so on.

我的意思是，它是基於歐盟委員會、歐洲法規等。

But there are certain triggers which trigger a much detailed and much more closer look in these type of transactions, which is when the combined entity has more than 25% market share, and when the integrated entity has more than 10% market share, then it requires next round of detailing and so on.

但在此類交易中，有一些觸發因素會引發更詳細、更仔細的審查，即當合併後的實體擁有超過25% 的市場份額時，以及當合併後的實體擁有超過10% 的市場份額時，則需要下一輪的細節設計等等。

In this case, as you know the numbers very well, we don't trigger any of those two triggers.

在這種情況下，正如您非常了解這些數字一樣，我們不會觸發這兩個觸發器中的任何一個。

And the final thing I would say to you is that because we do discuss about competition and we do live through it every single day, we are in this market, we have 13.8% of the market share.

我要對你們說的最後一件事是，因為我們確實討論競爭，並且我們每天都經歷競爭，所以我們在這個市場中，擁有 13.8% 的市場份額。

We see it every single day, competition is very fierce in Spain.

我們每天都會看到這樣的情況，西班牙的競爭非常激烈。

When you look into all the loan prices, loan prices for mortgages, loan prices for SMEs, loan prices for companies, we are, for example, much lower than average of Europe.

例如，當你查看所有貸款價格、抵押貸款價格、中小企業貸款價格、公司貸款價格時，我們遠低於歐洲平均水平。

We are much lower than Germany, where we have many more players.

我們的水平比德國低得多，而德國的球員則多得多。

So we have to look into the facts.

所以我們必須要調查事實。

We keep raising many opinions, but when we look into the facts, we do feel that there is a case here, and we feel comfortable on the fact that the competition authority will give us the green light.

我們不斷提出很多意見，但當我們審視事實時，我們確實覺得這是有道理的，我們對競爭主管機關會給我們綠燈感到放心。

Having said all of this, I go back to the first line, which is it's a -- the institutional strength of Spain in general is very high.

說完所有這些，我回到第一行，那就是西班牙的製度實力總體上非常高。

And this is a very respected institution in Spain.

這是西班牙非常受尊敬的機構。

And we will wait and see what they say in terms of content and process.

我們將拭目以待，看看他們在內容和過程上有何說法。

Thank you, Paco.

謝謝你，帕可。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Antonio Reale, Bank of America.

安東尼奧·雷亞萊，美國銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

Antonio Reale from Bank of America.

美國銀行的安東尼奧·雷亞萊。

My one question is a follow-up on your outlook for NII growth in Spain.

我的一個問題是關於西班牙國家資訊基礎設施成長前景的後續問題。

You guided to low-teens NII for this year.

您今年引導了低青少年 NII。

You've talked about better 2025 trends for the group.

您談到了該集團 2025 年更好的趨勢。

Can you tell us directionally how you would expect NII to perform in Spain in 2025, also in light of your commentary on better loan growth, which I guess will affect average balances?

您能否直接告訴我們您預計 NII 在 2025 年在西班牙的表現如何，同時考慮到您對更好的貸款增長的評論（我認為這將影響平均餘額）？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's go back to the activity growth.

讓我們回到活動成長。

As we discussed before, this is not new maybe to most of you, but the spreads will be coming down because the rate curve will be coming down.

正如我們之前討論的，這對你們大多數人來說可能並不新鮮，但利差將會下降，因為利率曲線將會下降。

ECB will be reducing rates in our view.

我們認為歐洲央行將降息。

But we have said to you that decline we would more or less compensate with two things.

但我們已經告訴你，我們或多或少會用兩件事來彌補這個下降。

Number one, activity growth.

第一，活動成長。

Number two, the asset quality.

第二，資產品質。

On the activity growth, BBVA Research our independent research entity they are basically still seeing for the market a decline in the lending balances for the market in 2023 of minus 0.5%.

關於活動成長，我們的獨立研究實體 BBVA Research 基本上仍認為 2023 年市場貸款餘額將下降 -0.5%。

They are foreseeing in 2025 that, after so many years, that the market will increase by around 1.5%, the lending volumes.

他們預計，經過這麼多年，到 2025 年，市場貸款量將增加 1.5% 左右。

Why?

為什麼？

Because the rates will come down, it will trigger more volumes and so on.

因為利率會下降，所以會引發更多的交易量等等。

As you have seen, until May, the Spanish market has declined by minus 2% until May this year, minus 2%, and we have grown this quarter, year-over-year, and so on.

正如你所看到的，直到5月份，西班牙市場下降了-2%，直到今年5月份，下降了-2%，而我們這個季度同比增長了，等等。

We are growing above the market.

我們的發展速度高於市場。

If what we are expecting in terms of market growth is realized, I can tell you that the activity growth and the loan volume growth for BBVA will be compensating very nicely the spread decline that we would be seeing.

如果我們對市場成長的預期得以實現，我可以告訴您，BBVA 的活動成長和貸款量成長將很好地補償我們將看到的利差下降。

And then there is the asset quality.

然後是資產品質。

We are guiding to around 40 basis points, as you know.

如您所知，我們的指導價約為 40 個基點。

Around 40 basis points for BBVA is relatively high, and we do expect that number two also, in the coming years, we'll see -- I mean, we will see, but in the coming years, to come back down to normalized levels a bit.

BBVA 大約 40 個基點相對較高，我們確實預計，在未來幾年，我們會看到第二個基點 - 我的意思是，我們會看到，但在未來幾年，會回到正常水平一點。

To cut the long story short, one other point that I would highlight, and then I cut the long story short.

長話短說，我要強調的另一點，然後我長話短說。

The other point that I would put on the table is the ALCO book.

我要提出的另一點是 ALCO 書。

In the appendix, you have that detail, but you would see that in the quarter, in the euro balance sheet in Spain, we have increased our ALCO book by EUR7 billion.

在附錄中，您可以看到該詳細信息，但您會看到本季度西班牙的歐元資產負債表中，我們的 ALCO 帳簿增加了 70 億歐元。

We did think that when the rate curve was relatively high, that it was a good opportunity to do some more hedging.

我們確實認為，當利率曲線相對較高時，這是進行更多對沖的好機會。

And as a result of this, the sensitivity guidance that we have been sharing with you, 5% decline in NII, for 100 basis points, step function, decline in interest rates, that 5% is now 4%.

因此，我們一直與大家分享的敏感度指導，NII 下降 5%，對於 100 個基點，階躍函數，利率下降，5% 現在是 4%。

So we have been managing further the sensitivity of the spreads NII and NIM to rate declines.

因此，我們一直在進一步管理 NII 和 NIM 利差對利率下降的敏感度。

All combined, we are quite positive, Antonio, you are asking me 2025 in a very specific way.

總而言之，我們非常積極，安東尼奧，你以非常具體的方式問我 2025 年。

I can see it from your question.

從你的問題我可以看出。

The only thing I can tell you is we are very positive.

我唯一可以告訴你的是我們非常積極。

And we will provide you full guidance, as we always do, for the countries in February, in January, when we do the end-of-year results presentation.

我們將像往常一樣，在 2 月、1 月公佈年終業績時為各個國家/地區提供全面的指導。

Thank you, Antonio.

謝謝你，安東尼奧。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas Exane.

伊格納西奧‧烏拉吉 (Ignacio Ulargui)，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for the presentation and for taking my question.

感謝您的介紹並回答我的問題。

I have one, if I may.

如果可以的話，我有一個。

How do you see lending and deposit growth evolving in Mexico, linked to this, I wanted to get your thoughts a bit on how the competition is behaving, particularly in deposits?

您如何看待墨西哥貸款和存款成長的演變，與此相關，我想了解您對競爭行為的看法，特別是在存款方面？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I mean, Luisa, you already mentioned it, but very quickly, [Nacho], you see a small decline in cost of deposits, as you see in the quarter for us.

我的意思是，路易莎，你已經提到過這一點，但很快，[納喬]，你看到存款成本略有下降，正如你在本季度看到的那樣。

We said it multiple times before, but it's a bit of a repetition, but it is important.

我們之前已經說過很多次了，雖然有點重複，但很重要。

As you know, 75% of our deposits are retail and SME, as you see in the page, 85% of our deposits are demand deposits.

如您所知，我們75%的存款是零售和中小企業，正如您在頁面中看到的，我們85%的存款是活期存款。

And even more impressive number in my view is 57% of our deposits are below the threshold of insurance scheme in Mexico, which is a very low threshold, which means it's very, very small granular transactional deposits.

在我看來，更令人印象深刻的數字是，我們 57% 的存款低於墨西哥保險計劃的門檻，這是一個非常低的門檻，這意味著它是非常非常小的顆粒交易存款。

In that context, we have been defending our cost of deposits.

在這種情況下，我們一直在捍衛我們的存款成本。

We are basically half of the larger players in Mexico, and we still see it positively.

我們基本上是墨西哥較大企業的一半，而且我們仍然積極看待這一點。

But you're asking NII in general.

但你問的是一般性的NII。

And again, I think Luisa has mentioned it already.

再說一遍，我認為路易莎已經提到過這一點。

But we can only tell you that we are quite positive.

但我們只能告訴你，我們非常積極。

We are quite positive going forward in NII overall for the coming quarters.

我們對未來幾季的 NII 整體發展持非常積極的態度。

You see the 12.6% growth in lending.

您會看到貸款增加了 12.6%。

As I did mention in my presentation, most of that growth came towards the end of the quarter, which means it's going to be reflected in the coming quarters even more.

正如我在演講中提到的，大部分成長出現在本季度末，這意味著它將更多地反映在未來幾季中。

So if you have 12.6% growth in loan volumes, the spread might be around these levels or slightly declining, but we are quite positive.

因此，如果貸款量增加 12.6%，利差可能會在這些水平附近或略有下降，但我們相當樂觀。

I would expect NII to continue to increase in the coming quarters -- quarter-over-quarter, because of that activity growth.

由於活動的成長，我預計 NII 將在未來幾季繼續成長——逐季成長。

Thank you...

謝謝...

Maybe I can add, because I think Nacho was also mentioning about the competition from, I would understand, new players in the market on deposits and the evolution there.

也許我可以補充一下，因為我認為納喬也提到了來自存款​​市場新參與者的競爭以及那裡的演變，我可以理解。

I think we have been very consistent in saying that obviously we respect the entry of these players into the market, they've not only obviously the most renowned one, but actually there are other very strong entities coming in.

我認為我們一直非常一致地表示，顯然我們尊重這些參與者進入市場，他們不僅顯然是最著名的，而且實際上還有其他非常強大的實體進入。

But I think that we have been managing both on the lending and the deposit side very actively as well, competing front to front with them.

但我認為我們在貸款和存款方面的管理也非常積極，與他們正面競爭。

I think that we are, as we've mentioned, the largest and best fintech bank in Mexico in this regard.

我認為，正如我們所提到的，在這方面我們是墨西哥最大、最好的金融科技銀行。

What we have been seeing on the lending side is obviously a pick-up in, I think, issuance of cards from these players.

我認為，我們在貸款方面看到的情況顯然是這些玩家發卡的數量增加。

Their market share has been growing in the first part of the year.

今年上半年，他們的市佔率一直在成長。

But when you look at the revolving rates of balances, the market share there is still below their peak at the beginning of 2022.

但如果你看看餘額循環率，你會發現那裡的市佔率仍低於 2022 年初的高峰。

It's around 9.6%.

大約是9.6%。

So it's growing, not as much as the issuance of cards.

所以它在成長，但沒有發卡那麼多。

And in this regard, I think, as you know, we remain the largest player in the credit card market.

在這方面，我認為，如您所知，我們仍然是信用卡市場上最大的參與者。

We have a market share of above 31%, and we are very comfortable in competing with the players, not only in terms of the balances, but especially in functionality and delivering value to our clients.

我們的市佔率超過 31%，我們非常樂意與玩家競爭，不僅是在平衡方面，尤其是在功能和為客戶提供價值方面。

Today, our MPS stands the highest in the market above these players as well.

如今，我們的 MPS 也高於這些廠商，在市場上處於最高水準。

On the deposit side, what I would say is that we have been very much allowing our customers to have alternatives to the rates that we offer on the deposit side.

在存款方面，我想說的是，我們一直非常允許我們的客戶有我們在存款方面提供的利率之外的其他選擇。

As Onur was mentioning, our deposit rates are 2.88% in cost of deposits compared to above 5% in the market.

正如 Onur 所提到的，我們的存款利率為 2.88%（以存款成本計算），而市場利率則高於 5%。

This is -- I think, a very clear competitive advantage of ours.

我認為這是我們非常明顯的競爭優勢。

But that doesn't mean that we haven't been offering alternatives to our clients, especially on the asset management side, which have grown significantly year-on-year, above 25% growth.

但這並不意味著我們沒有為客戶提供替代方案，尤其是在資產管理方面，其年增率顯著，成長超過25%。

And we are the leading player there as well in terms of market share.

就市場佔有率而言，我們也是該領域的領導者。

And we will continue to offer the best products available in terms of returns to our clients while maintaining the competitive advantage on the cost of deposit side.

我們將持續為客戶提供回報方面最好的產品，同時保持存款成本的競爭優勢。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

So thank you, Nacho.

謝謝你，納喬。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

Carlos Peixoto, CaixaBank.

卡洛斯·佩肖托 (Carlos Peixoto)，Caixa 銀行。

Yes, hi, good morning.

是的，嗨，早安。

Sorry, so one of my questions would actually be on deposit costs in Spain, and it's a bit of a follow-up from [Marks] questions.

抱歉，我的問題之一實際上是關於西班牙的存款成本，這是[Marks]問題的後續內容。

So my doubt here is, looking forward, should we expect the same behavior or the same pattern of behavior of deposit costs moving more or less in tandem with market rates, given the and basically.

因此，我的疑問是，展望未來，鑑於 和 基本上，我們是否應該預期存款成本或多或少與市場利率同步變化的相同行為或相同模式。

If you could give some color on how much of the deposit base is pegged to market rates?

您能否詳細說明有多少存款基礎與市場利率掛鉤？

And then just on the overall group outlook, and pardon me if I missed out on something during the presentation, but basically, given that you have some upgrades in outlook, particularly in Spain, in NII, as you mentioned, do you see this still within the guidance that was provided for the group as a whole?

然後只是關於整體集團的前景，如果我在演示過程中錯過了一些東西，請原諒我，但基本上，考慮到您的前景有一些升級，特別是在西班牙，在NII，正如您提到的，您是否仍然看到這一點在為整個集團提供的指導範圍內？

Or do you see it applied to the guidance you provided in the previous quarters for the group, I mean?

或者我的意思是，您是否認為它適用於您在前幾個季度為該集團提供的指導？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Carlos, for both questions.

謝謝卡洛斯提出的兩個問題。

Very quickly on cost of deposits.

存款成本很快。

It will come -- yes, with the curve, it will continue to come down, the cost of deposits.

它將到​​來——是的，隨著曲線的推移，存款成本將繼續下降。

But what matters is obviously the spread.

但重要的顯然是傳播。

The spread at the moment is

目前的價差是

[344].

[344]。

We are expecting for the rest of the year slightly below, not much difference, slightly below, because the decline in the lending yields will be compensated by the cost of deposits decline.

我們預計今年剩餘時間會小幅下跌，差異不大，小幅下跌，因為貸款收益率的下降將被存款成本的下降所補償。

On the guidance for the group, as Luisa has mentioned very clearly, we are upgrading basically everything in Spain.

關於團體的指導，正如路易莎非常明確地提到的，我們基本上正在升級西班牙的一切。

We are confirming the revenue guidance that we have been giving to you for Mexico, very clearly confirming what we have in Mexico.

我們正在確認我們向您提供的墨西哥收入指導，非常明確地確認了我們在墨西哥的收入。

We are upgrading Turkey, South America is relatively stable.

我們正在升級土耳其，南美相對穩定。

If you sum them all up, it's a really good picture for the group as well.

如果你把它們全部總結起來，這對這個團體來說也是一個非常好的畫面。

But I think it was Britta who asked it last time.

但我認為上次問的是布麗塔。

But what exactly is double digit.

但兩位數到底是多少。

Because our guidance to you at the moment is double digit.

因為我們目前給您的指導是兩位數。

We maintain that guidance of double digit, but double digit is a lot of numbers.

我們維持兩位數的指導，但兩位數是很多數字。

The only thing I can tell you is that looking into the dynamics, we are very positive.

我唯一可以告訴你的是，從動態來看，我們非常積極。

I see no reason that we would not be able to replicate what we have done in the first half in the second half.

我認為我們沒有理由不能在下半場複製上半場所做的事情。

If all the dimensions, all the guidance that we have been giving to you for different countries holds true, which we have full conviction that they would be, then you would see a very good second half as well.

如果我們為不同國家提供給你們的所有維度、所有指導都是正確的，我們完全相信它們會如此，那麼你們也會看到一個非常好的下半年。

Thank you, Carlos.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Sofie Peterzens, JPMorgan.

蘇菲彼得森斯，摩根大通。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

This is Sofie from JPMorgan.

這是摩根大通的蘇菲。

Could you just remind us of your hedging policy?

您能提醒我們一下您的避險政策嗎？

How much of profits are hedged in the various different countries.

有多少利潤在不同的國家進行對沖。

And also, how much of capital is hedged.

還有，有多少資本被對沖。

And also related to this, one of your peers did a quite big FX adjustment for Argentina.

與此相關的是，您的一位同行對阿根廷進行了相當大的匯率調整。

How do you think about the FX in Argentina?

您如何看待阿根廷的外匯？

And should we think about any FX adjustments in Argentina going forward?

我們是否應該考慮阿根廷未來的任何匯率調整？

And then if I may, could you just briefly comment on your digital bank expansion into Germany?

如果可以的話，您能否簡要評論一下您在德國的數位銀行擴張？

And also, maybe briefly how the Italian digital bank expansion is going?

另外，或許可以簡單介紹一下義大利數位銀行的擴張進展如何？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Perfect.

完美的。

Maybe, Luisa, you take the Argentina question.

路易莎，也許你會回答阿根廷問題。

You are the expert for Argentina.

您是阿根廷的專家。

But on hedging, Sofie, as you know, we have two types of hedges.

但在對沖方面，蘇菲，正如你所知，我們有兩種類型的對沖。

We hedge capital and we hedge P&L.

我們對沖資本和對沖損益。

Capital, we hedge the excess capital so that the capital -- the CET1 variability is managed.

資本，我們對沖多餘的資本，以便管理資本－CET1 的波動性。

So we only look into the excess capital above the group's CET1 ratio.

因此我們只考察高於集團CET1比率的超額資本。

What is the excess capital in every single currency, and then we do hedge that.

每種貨幣的過剩資本是多少，然後我們對其進行對沖。

Our policy is that we hedge 50% to 70% of the excess capital for capital, the cost, the benefit, everything of that also goes through capital.

我們的政策是，我們將多餘資本的50%到70%對沖為資本，成本、收益，所有這些也都透過資本進行。

Then for P&L, next 12-month profits, we typically hedge 40% to 50% of that.

然後對於損益表，即接下來 12 個月的利潤，我們通常會對其進行 40% 到 50% 的對沖。

And depending on the cost of carry, depending on the currency expectations that we have, we can be within or slightly beyond these ranges, but we typically have this range.

根據持有成本，根據我們對貨幣的預期，我們可以在這些範圍之內或稍微超出這些範圍，但我們通常有這個範圍。

At the moment, the most relevant one is the Mexican peso hedge.

目前，最相關的是墨西哥比索對沖。

We do have 54% of the excess capital for Mexican peso is hedged, and we have 52% of the P&L is already hedged.

我們確實有 54% 的墨西哥比索超額資本被對沖，我們有 52% 的損益已經被對沖。

That's why you have seen in the corporate center some positive impact in this quarter.

這就是為什麼您在本季看到企業中心產生了一些正面影響。

Argentina Luisa?

阿根廷 路易莎?

Yes.

是的。

Well, we are not applying a different exchange rate to our Argentinian accounts other than the official exchange rate.

嗯，除了官方匯率之外，我們不會對我們的阿根廷帳戶應用不同的匯率。

We'd rather use the official rate for now versus estimating a new one.

我們寧願暫時使用官方匯率，而不是估計新的匯率。

As you know, the IAS21 guidelines, which came out in August of last year, allow entities to change and use a different exchanger if they believe the current official exchanger is not exchangeable into other currencies.

如您所知，去年 8 月發布的 IAS21 指南允許實體在認為目前官方兌換商不可兌換為其他貨幣的情況下更改和使用不同的兌換商。

What we've been seeing is, and what we saw last year, is a strong depreciation of the official rate.

我們去年看到的情況是官方匯率大幅貶值。

That's why last year, when the gap between the CCL rate, which or the parallel, whichever one, versus the official rate was significant, the gap was above 150% back in September.

這就是為什麼去年，當 CCL 利率（或平行利率，無論哪一個）與官方利率之間的差距很大時，9 月的差距就超過了 150%。

We didn't take the opportunity of applying IAS21 because we did firmly believe that if the Milei government or Milei won the elections, which is what happened, there would be a strong depreciation of the peso, which is what happened.

我們沒有利用應用IAS21的機會，因為我們確實堅信，如果米雷政府或米雷贏得選舉（事實就是如此），比索就會大幅貶值，事實就是如此。

And therefore, the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel ones for the CCL one was narrowed.

因此，CCL官方匯率與平行匯率之間的差距縮小了。

This year, what has happened this year?

今年，這一年發生了什麼事？

This gap has been fairly stable, I would say, during the first quarter, but it has started to increase as of April.

我想說，這一差距在第一季相當穩定，但從四月開始擴大。

It was around 24% of April right now, I think in July, last time I checked, it was around 50%, 52%.

現在是 4 月份的 24% 左右，我想在 7 月份，我上次檢查時，大約是 50%、52%。

And why is this the case?

而為什麼會出現這樣的情況呢？

Because I think that there is a demand from the market to have clarification on the Argentinian government regarding to the crawling peg and obviously the exchange rate mechanisms going forward.

因為我認為市場要求阿根廷政府就爬行釘住匯率制以及未來的匯率機製做出澄清。

In this regard and the context that we have today, we are monitoring the situation.

在這方面以及我們今天的背景下，我們正在監測局勢。

We do expect a strong devaluation of the peso in the second half of the year.

我們確實預計今年下半年比索將大幅貶值。

The estimates that we have from our research teams are that the currency could go to

我們的研究團隊估計該貨幣可能會走向

[ARS1,200 per dollar].

[每美元 1,200 盧比]。

Under that consideration, the gap, again, will narrow and we'll be feeling more comfortable than today.

考慮到這一點，差距將再次縮小，我們會感覺比今天更舒服。

So therefore, we are not going to be making any adjustments now.

因此，我們現在不會做出任何調整。

We will continue to monitor the situation.

我們將繼續關注事態發展。

What I can say is that -- with that currency rate, we would have an impact of around 6 basis points in CET1.

我能說的是——按照這個匯率，我們將對 CET1 產生約 6 個基點的影響。

And if we were applying today the CCL exchange rate, which is at [ARS1,350 to the dollar], the impact on CET1 would be around 8 basis points, and the impact to our net attributable income in the first half of the year would be around EUR30 million lower.

如果我們今天應用 CCL 匯率，即 [1,350 阿根廷比索兌美元]，對 CET1 的影響將在 8 個基點左右，對我們上半年的淨歸屬收入的影響將是減少約 3000 萬歐元。

So I think it's very manageable.

所以我認為這是非常容易管理的。

And as I was saying, we will wait and see.

正如我所說，我們將拭​​目以待。

And to the news that we expect in the third quarter with regards to the exchange rate mechanisms in

我們預計第三季有關匯率機制的消息

(multiple speakers).

（多個發言者）。

Very good.

非常好。

Maybe let's provide the sensitivity and that will also help you for the future, Sofie. 10% depreciation in Argentina implies 2.5 basis points in capital.

也許讓我們提供敏感性，這也會對你的未來有所幫助，蘇菲。阿根廷 10% 的貶值意味著資本下降 2.5 個基點。

Okay?

好的？

10% depreciation, 2.5 basis points.

貶值10%，2.5個基點。

Digital banks, Italy and Germany, given the fact that we are so happy with what has been happening in Italy, and I don't think we have provided that number, but we can provide it.

義大利和德國的數位銀行，鑑於我們對義大利所發生的事情非常滿意，我認為我們沒有提供這個數字，但我們可以提供。

We just passed 500,000 customers in Italy, and we just passed, or we are getting very close, actually.

我們剛剛在義大利超過了 50 萬名客戶，而且實際上我們剛剛超過，或者說我們已經非常接近了。

It was yesterday, basically a few millions less, but EUR5 billion in deposits, and I do think it's moving really nicely.

這是昨天的事，基本上少了幾百萬，但存款卻有 50 億歐元，我確實認為進展非常順利。

As a result, we said we will take it to another country, which is Germany, we have taken that decision and the expectation is that in June, July period so mid next year 2025 we will launch in Germany as well.

因此，我們說我們將把它帶到另一個國家，那就是德國，我們已經做出了這個決定，預計在 6 月、7 月期間，即明年 2025 年中期，我們也將在德國推出。

Thank you, Sofie.

謝謝你，蘇菲。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Pablo de la Torre, RBC.

巴勃羅·德拉托雷，RBC。

Two, if I may.

如果可以的話，兩個。

One (technical difficulty) distributions and on guidance.

一份（技術難度）分佈與指導。

Firstly, you have reiterated your intention to distribute excess capital above 12%.

首先，您重申了將超額資本分配至12%以上的意圖。

Could you please elaborate on the specific timing of that ambition, both if the takeover of Sabadell is successful, but also if the takeover does not materialize?

您能否詳細說明這項雄心壯志的具體時間安排，無論是薩瓦德爾的收購成功還是沒有實現？

And then the second question was on next year's ROTE guidance might be here a bit early, but you have reported 20% ROTE in the first half.

然後第二個問題是關於明年的 ROTE 指導可能有點早，但您在上半年報告了 20% 的 ROTE。

You've guided to a higher than 17% in 2024.

您預計 2024 年這一比例將高於 17%。

Consensus has ROTE falling to around 16% in 2025.

市場普遍認為 ROTE 到 2025 年將下降至 16% 左右。

Could you just provide us with any indication of where you see the biggest upside to consensus here?

您能否向我們提供一些信息，說明您認為達成共識的最大好處在哪裡？

I know it's early again, but how do you expect revenue to grow in constant currency more or less into next year?

我知道現在還為時過早，但您預計明年以固定匯率計算收入會或多或少成長嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Pablo, you say it's too early, and then you are asking for the number.

巴勃羅，你說現在還太早，然後你又要電話號碼。

So the only thing I can tell you is that it's too early, really.

所以我唯一能告訴你的是，現在還為時過早。

The only thing is we are very positive.

唯一的事情是我們非常積極。

We said it in the last call.

我們在上次通話中已經說過了。

Looking into the fundamentals of the business, the activity growth that we see in Mexico.

看看業務的基本面，我們在墨西哥看到的活動成長。

And we are very positive of Mexico, as always.

我們一如既往地對墨西哥非常樂觀。

But we are very positive because we have an amazing franchise.

但我們非常積極，因為我們擁有令人驚嘆的特許經營權。

And also, the new administration that we are seeing in Mexico.

還有，我們在墨西哥看到的新政府。

We have seen the new President talk about Mexico and the things that she highlighted, and I looked into everything that she has been saying, and the key things that come out is investments, private investments, nearshoring, growth, energy and infrastructure policy.

我們看到新總統談論墨西哥和她強調的事情，我研究了她所說的一切，得出的關鍵內容是投資、私人投資、近岸外包、成長、能源和基礎設施政策。

We have to grow Mexico much more it's amazing.

我們必須進一步發展墨西哥，這真是太棒了。

And even the track record that she has as the governor of Mexico City, we are very positive on Mexico.

甚至她作為墨西哥城州長的記錄，我們對墨西哥也非常樂觀。

Spain, as I told you, the spreads might come down. 4% is now the new reduced sensitivity to the interest rates.

西班牙，正如我告訴你的，利差可能會下降。 4%現在是新的降低的利率敏感度。

But we are seeing some clear pickup in activity.

但我們看到活動出現明顯回升。

And we are still quite positive on the growth of Spain in general in GDP in the next year.

我們對明年西班牙國內生產毛額的整體成長仍然相當樂觀。

So Spain should be relatively well-situated.

所以西班牙的處境應該是比較有利的。

Then as you have seen today in the presentation, both Turkey and South America they are coming back up.

然後，正如您今天在演示中看到的那樣，土耳其和南美都將回歸。

Especially, Turkey, if inflation continues on this path, you might remember this last year this month, we had 9% monthly inflation in Turkey.

尤其是土耳其，如果通膨繼續沿著這條道路發展，你可能還記得去年這個月，土耳其的月通膨率為 9%。

Last month in June we had 1.6%, if this inflation trend is maintained, we have a huge option value, huge upside, big upside, let's not say huge, but big upside in Turkey.

上個月6月我們的通膨率為1.6%，如果這種通膨趨勢得以維持，我們將擁有巨大的選擇權價值，巨大的上漲空間，巨大的上漲空間，我們不是說巨大，而是土耳其的巨大上漲空間。

It's a process still, they still need to continue on this path for the next two, three years.

這仍然是一個過程，他們仍然需要在接下來的兩三年繼續沿著這條路走下去。

But we are quite positive on Turkey and South America.

但我們對土耳其和南美相當樂觀。

If you put the two pieces together, we are positive.

如果你把這兩部分放在一起，我們是正面的。

But exact number, and you're asking constant revenue, let's do that as we always do at the beginning of next year with full details of every single country.

但是確切的數字，並且您要求穩定的收入，讓我們像明年初所做的那樣，提供每個國家/地區的完整詳細資訊。

Then regarding the distributions, you give me -- some of you give me very nice and relatively direct feedback, which I fully take, that I should not complain about the market and so on.

然後關於發行版，你們給了我——你們中的一些人給了我非常好的和相對直接的回饋，我完全接受，我不應該抱怨市場等等。

But today, we are posting EUR5 billion in profit for the six months.

但今天，我們公佈這六個月的利潤為 50 億歐元。

We are posting 20% return on tangible equity.

我們公佈的有形股本回報率為 20%。

We are posting 20% tangible book value per share plus dividends growth, which is the most important number in everything, in my view.

我們公佈的每股有形帳面價值加上股息成長為 20%，在我看來，這是最重要的數字。

And despite this, today we are trading at [5.7] price to earnings.

儘管如此，今天我們的本益比仍為 [5.7]。

We are trading around book and 20% return on tangible equity in the US.

我們在美國的帳面回報率和有形股本回報率為 20% 左右進行交易。

What the multiple -- I'm sure you know, but we do think that we are still not able to convince the market on how great our bank BBVA is.

我相信您知道倍數是多少，但我們確實認為我們仍然無法讓市場相信我們的銀行 BBVA 有多麼出色。

As such, you talked about the distribution policy.

因此，您談到了分配政策。

Because of the OPA, we are restricted to continue with the share buybacks, and obviously it's the Board's decision.

由於 OPA，我們被限制繼續進行股票回購，顯然這是董事會的決定。

But I can clearly tell you that the day that the OPA finishes, if we are where we are depends obviously on the market how it evolves and so on, but you will see us immediately starting the share buyback programs.

但我可以明確地告訴你，OPA 結束的那一天，我們是否處於現在的位置，顯然取決於市場如何發展等等，但你會看到我們立即開始股票回購計劃。

That's I can tell you clearly.

這就是我可以明確告訴你的。

It just doesn't make sense 20% tangible value per share growth year-over-year, and we are trading at [5.5, 5.7] price to earnings around book.

每股有形價值年增 20% 是沒有意義的，而且我們的本益比約為帳面收益 [5.5, 5.7]。

In any case, I got enough feedback from you on this, so let me not continue on this.

無論如何，我從你那裡得到了足夠的回饋，所以讓我不再繼續這個。

We are very committed to 40% to 50% payout, and we will immediately start the share buybacks after the OPA process is ended.

我們非常致力於 40% 到 50% 的支付，並且我們將在 OPA 流程結束後立即開始股票回購。

Thank you, Pablo.

謝謝你，巴布羅。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Cecilia Romero Reyes, Barclays.

塞西莉亞·羅梅羅·雷耶斯，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, thank you so much for taking my question.

你好，非常感謝你回答我的問題。

You have just commented on it briefly, but I would be interested to hear your views on whether you see any catalysts that could improve sentiment on Mexico, or whether you think the results of the election could have any impact on your operational performance in the country, beyond obviously FX?

您剛剛對此進行了簡要評論，但我很想聽聽您的看法，即您是否看到任何可以改善墨西哥情緒的催化劑，或者您認為選舉結果是否會對您在該國的運營績效產生任何影響，顯然超出了FX？

And then I have another question related to Mexico, in terms of what are the rate assumptions that you have on the guidance that you just reiterated?

然後我還有另一個與墨西哥相關的問題，即您對剛才重申的指導意見的利率假設是什麼？

Obviously, because of the political outcome, some economies have been delaying rate cuts.

顯然，由於政治結果，一些經濟體一直在推遲降息。

So what is the impact that you've seen higher for longer in Mexico who have involved volumes and cost of risk?

那麼，您在墨西哥看到的影響量和風險成本較高、持續時間較長的影響是什麼？

And finally, one clarification on the comment that you just made about the antitrust process on the Sabadell situation.

最後，對您剛才就薩瓦德爾事件的反壟斷程序發表的評論進行澄清。

You mentioned that a combined market share of around 25%, and I believe, and I just wanted to clarify, you mean total loans will mean a higher scrutiny?

您提到合併市場佔有率約為 25%，我相信，我只是想澄清一下，您的意思是貸款總額將意味著更嚴格的審查？

If we look at it per segment and SMEs and corporates per what you publish on your analyst presentation, you get to that 25% of loans combined.

如果我們按照您在分析師簡報中發布的內容按細分市場、中小企業和企業來查看，您將獲得總貸款的 25%。

So I just wanted to make sure that you mean the additional scrutiny is a total loan level and not per segment?

所以我只是想確保您的意思是額外的審查是整個貸款水平而不是每個細分市場？

Thank you.

謝謝。

The first one I couldn't get.

第一個我沒搶到。

Did you get it, Luisa?

你明白了嗎，路易莎？

I think the question was something on the sentiment of Mexico because

我認為這個問題與墨西哥的情緒有關，因為

--

--

I was just wondering whether there is any catalyst that you see where the rhetoric will improve on Mexico, where you think the risk perception on the country may improve, maybe perhaps after September.

我只是想知道是否存在任何催化劑，您認為墨西哥的言論會得到改善，您認為對該國的風險認知可能會改善，也許在 9 月之後。

Thank you, Cecilia.

謝謝你，塞西莉亞。

Very good.

非常好。

Now I understand.

現在我明白了。

Thank you so much for the clarification.

非常感謝您的澄清。

The rhetoric and what can happen to improve the sentiment, I do think it's partially happening.

我確實認為，言論以及可能發生的改善情緒的事情正在部分發生。

And you have seen that since the elections, it's the actions and the statements of the government.

你們已經看到，自從選舉以來，政府的行動和聲明都是如此。

And I did mention it before, we are seeing very positive messaging from the government.

我之前確實提到過，我們看到政府發出了非常積極的訊息。

And we have a clear track record of the President in her previous role.

我們對總統之前的職務有清楚的記錄。

So it just needs a bit more time, in our view, a bit more time.

所以我們認為，只是需要多一點時間。

Then on the higher for longer, for Mexico, I think you were asking, but we do have the sensitivities also in the appendix.

然後在更長的時間裡，對於墨西哥，我想你是在問，但我們確實在附錄中也有敏感性。

It's relatively symmetric, changes slightly, but not that much.

比較對稱，變化不大，但變化不大。

You do see that every 100 basis points, plus, minus 100 basis points, has a 2.3% plus minus improvement or deterioration in NII.

你確實看到，每 100 個基點加減 100 個基點，NII 就會有 2.3% 加減的改善或惡化。

So if it's higher rate for longer, it's good for us because we are asset sensitive.

因此，如果利率持續較長時間，這對我們有利，因為我們對資產敏感。

If rates are high in Mexico, in Spain, in Peru, we take benefit out of it.

如果墨西哥、西班牙、秘魯的利率很高，我們就會從中受益。

In the case of Mexico, there is the clear that asset sensitivity.

就墨西哥而言，資產敏感性很明顯。

So if it's higher rate for longer, good for us in Mexico.

因此，如果利率持續時間較高，對我們墨西哥有好處。

Then on the third one, the antitrust and the 25%, it is basically based on, if you take lending, branches, people, in any metric, we don't reach the 25%.

第三個，反壟斷和 25%，它基本上是基於，如果你以貸款、分行、人員為衡量標準，我們都達不到 25%。

We don't.

我們不這樣做。

In the lending, 13.8%, -- 8% -- 22%.

在貸款中，13.8%，-- 8%-- 22%。

And I would repeat once again, we would not be the largest player in Spain, which was recently approved to become the largest one.

我要再次重申，我們不會成為西班牙最大的參與者，西班牙最近被批准成為最大的參與者。

But we don't trigger the 25% in any sense.

但我們不會在任何意義上觸發 25%。

You are asking about a certain segment in a certain region, you might be passing 25%.

你問的是某個地區的某個細分市場，你可能會通過 25%。

I can give you today, I have it in front of me, in Balearic Islands, in Galicia, in Pais Pasco, in Basque region, there are players who are above what you might be quoting or thinking about BBVA in a certain region in this transaction.

我今天可以告訴你，我就在我面前，在巴利阿里群島、在加利西亞、在帕斯科、在巴斯克地區，有些球員的水平超出了你在這個地區的某個地區可能引用或思考的BBVA 的水平。

The market is a national market.

該市場是全國市場。

We compete in the national market.

我們在全國市場上競爭。

In that sense, we don't pass the 25% in short, and the regional perspective on this, there are many precedents out there, which are even higher than the numbers that you might be quoting.

從這個意義上說，我們不會簡單地通過25%，從區域角度來看，有很多先例，甚至比你可能引用的數字還要高。

Did I miss anything on Mexico?

我錯過了墨西哥的什麼嗎？

Luisa?

路易莎？

No.

不。

The only thing I think that I would add is that in terms of the expectations on policy -- monetary policy.

我想我唯一要補充的是，就政策──貨幣政策──的預期而言。

What does higher for longer mean for us we were expecting the rates to come down at the beginning of the year 9%, then the first quarter we're expecting them to come down to 9.25%.

長期走高對我們意味著什麼？

Today, we're expecting rates to come down to 10.5%.

今天，我們預計利率將降至 10.5%。

And that is the main assumption that drives also the view that we have on the NII --

這也是我們對國家資訊基礎建設觀點的主要假設—

And that's good for us.

這對我們有好處。

Yeah.

是的。

Exactly.

確切地。

And that's also on the back of the cost of risk analysis.

這也是基於風險分析成本的。

And that's also the main assumption within that.

這也是其中的主要假設。

In Mexico, I mean, Luisa always warns me on this one, which is true.

我的意思是，在墨西哥，路易莎總是就這一點警告我，這是真的。

There will be volatility in Mexico because there will be September, the period of the new government taking there is going to be -- there are going to be US elections in November.

墨西哥將會出現波動，因為九月將是新政府上任的時期——十一月將舉行美國大選。

There will be volatility.

會有波動。

But the fundamentals of Mexico and our strength in Mexico as a bank.

但墨西哥的基本面和我們在墨西哥作為銀行的實力。

Fundamentals of Mexico, I will only give you one number.

墨西哥的基本面，我只會給你一個數字。

We sometimes quote this, but I think it's super important.

我們有時會引用這一點，但我認為它非常重要。

The labor costs in Mexico versus US, it depends from sector to sector, but it is 1/10 or 1/10 of the US, and it is now better than China.

墨西哥與美國的勞動成本，這取決於產業，但它是美國的1/10或1/10，現在比中國更好。

Cost of manufacturing in Mexico is better than China, is 1/5, 1/10 of US, you cannot stop this trend in our view.

墨西哥的製造成本比中國好，是美國的1/5、1/10，我們認為你無法阻止這個趨勢。

So we are positive on Mexico for the future.

因此，我們對墨西哥的未來持樂觀態度。

Thank you, Cecilia.

謝謝你，塞西莉亞。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Marta Sanchez Romero, Citi.

瑪塔·桑切斯·羅梅羅，花旗銀行。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Good morning.

早安.

So thank you for providing the breakdown of your cost synergies.

感謝您提供成本協同效應的詳細資訊。

But it seems that you are only closing just about a third of the overlapped branch network, so those 300 branches.

但看來您只關閉了大約三分之一的重疊分支機構網絡，即 300 個分支機構。

Why are you not being more ambitious?

為什麼你不更有野心呢？

We've seen the Caixa Bankia transaction ended up with Bankia being completely shut down or the equivalent of Bankia being shut down.

我們已經看到 Caixa Bankia 交易最終導致 Bankia 完全關閉或相當於 Bankia 關閉。

So I wanted to hear your thoughts there.

所以我想聽聽你的想法。

And just sorry if I sneak in one, quick one.

如果我偷偷溜進去一個，快點，抱歉。

Are you reiterating your high single digit NII growth guidance for Mexico?

您是否重申對墨西哥高個位數的國家投資基礎設施成長指引？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very quick answers to two quick questions.

非常快速地回答了兩個簡單的問題。

Thank you, Marta. 300 overlapping branches, why lower than other transactions like Caixa.

謝謝你，瑪爾塔。 300 個重疊分支機構，為什麼低於 Caixa 等其他交易。

Because the two entities, both us and Sabadell, we have done very recent restructurings of our networks, and as a result, the potential to do more is lower.

因為我們和薩瓦德爾這兩個實體最近都對我們的網路進行了重組，因此，做更多事情的潛力較低。

Then on the reiterating the high single digit, the guidance, yes.

然後重申高個位數的指導，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Marta.

謝謝你，瑪爾塔。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

Britta Schmidt, Autonomous Research.

布麗塔·施密特，自主研究。

Yeah, hi, there.

是的，嗨，在那裡。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I would like to challenge you a bit on Mexico.

我想在墨西哥問題上向你提出一些挑戰。

I mean, GDP growth disappointed in the last quarter.

我的意思是，上個季度的 GDP 成長令人失望。

We're seeing higher rates and there's also a bit of a shift on the retail lending side to more unsecured personal loans versus payroll loans.

我們看到利率上升，而且零售貸款方面也有一些轉變，轉向更多無擔保個人貸款而不是工資貸款。

Could you give us your opinion on what impact you think this will have on loan growth, as well as on the cost of risk going forward?

您能否告訴我們您認為這將對貸款成長以及未來風險成本產生什麼影響？

And maybe related to that, also with regards to the Mexican peso devaluation, do you still think that if you were to print double-digit earnings growth this year, that it is possible to grow on this number in 2025, as you indicated earlier?

也許與此相關，也與墨西哥比索貶值有關，您是否仍然認為，如果您今年要實現兩位數的盈利增長，那麼到 2025 年有可能實現這一數字的增長，正如您之前指出的那樣？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Britta.

謝謝你，布麗塔。

Britta, I have the quarterly forecasts for Mexico and the 2025 forecast, but as we mentioned, we cannot share this early those numbers with you.

Britta，我有墨西哥的季度預測和 2025 年的預測，但正如我們所提到的，我們無法提前與您分享這些數字。

And as I mentioned, we are positive.

正如我所提到的，我們持正面態度。

We are positive on the first topic you are challenging a bit, the long growth.

我們對您面臨的第一個挑戰——長期成長——持積極態度。

On that one, we feel very comfortable that long growth is going to be there.

在這一點上，我們對長期成長將會存在感到非常滿意。

Why?

為什麼？

Just look at the history.

只要看看歷史就知道了。

The history is the average last 15-years, average GDP growth of Mexico is 2.1%.

歷史上最近15年的平均值，墨西哥的GDP平均成長率為2.1%。

Okay?

好的？

In that context of 2.1% GDP growth, Mexican banking sector, our numbers, let me give you our numbers, we always grew every year, but on average, double digit.

在 GDP 成長 2.1% 的背景下，墨西哥銀行業，我們的數據，讓我給你我們的數據，我們每年都在成長，但平均是兩位數。

Double digit?

兩位數？

How come in an environment of 2% GDP growth, we are growing double digit?

為什麼在GDP成長2%的環境下，我們的成長卻是兩位數？

It goes back the number that we have been quoting to you many times, but it is important, the banking debt over GDP in Mexico is one of the lowest in emerging markets landscape.

這可以追溯到我們多次向大家引用的數字，但重要的是，墨西哥的銀行業債務與 GDP 比率是新興市場中最低的之一。

It's 33% now, the latest number, which is half of Brazil, one-third of Chile.

現在是33%，最新的數字，是巴西的一半，智利的三分之一。

So there's leverage, given all these tequila crisis that we had in Mexico many years ago, the country is still not having the leverage.

因此，考慮到多年前在墨西哥發生的龍舌蘭危機，該國仍然沒有槓桿作用。

So we are able to grow double digit without creating too much cost of risk in a profitable way because there's room for leverage.

因此，我們能夠實現兩位數的成長，而不會以獲利的方式創造太多的風險成本，因為還有槓桿空間。

And if you look into the underlying details of this, you also do see that in Mexico, you do have a very vibrant, because of the remittances, because of the linkage with the US, you do see very vibrant consumer sector and Pemex and Empresas, the company segment.

如果你研究一下這背後的細節，你也會發現，在墨西哥，你確實有一個非常充滿活力的國家，因為匯款，因為與美國的聯繫，你確實看到了非常充滿活力的消費部門以及墨西哥國家石油公司和巴西國家石油公司，公司部門。

So we are quite confident on the fact that, that double digit lending growth will come as it has come every year in the past 10, 15-years.

因此，我們非常有信心，過去 10 年、15 年每年都會出現兩位數的貸款成長。

Then the devaluation topic, that one we cannot control, obviously that our confidence on the currency is obviously lower.

然後是貶值話題，這是我們無法控制的，顯然我們對貨幣的信心明顯較低。

But what I can tell you on that one also, is if inflation in Mexico is 4.6% now, and interest rate at the moment is 11%, the carry in Mexican peso, has been one of the supporting factors of the currency in the past few quarters, years actually.

但我還可以告訴你的是，如果墨西哥現在的通貨膨脹率為4.6%，而目前的利率為11%，那麼墨西哥比索的利差在過去一直是該貨幣的支撐因素之一實際上是幾個季度，幾年。

If the inflation fixation of the Banco Banxico, the Central Bank of Mexico is there, if the government -- if the society cares a lot about what is the currency exchange, we do feel that even on that one, the risks are relatively muted.

如果墨西哥央行（Banco Banxico）對通貨膨脹的關注存在，如果政府——如果社會非常關心貨幣兌換是什麼，我們確實認為即使在貨幣兌換方面，風險也相對較小。

But we have to see, it depends on many other things in the macro, in the elections, in the US, and so on, but we feel quite confident.

但我們必須看到，這取決於宏觀、選舉、美國等許多其他因素，但我們感到相當有信心。

The other thing I would reiterate and then I would finish.

我會重申另一件事，然後我會結束。

The thing that I said, please look into the fundamentals.

我說的這些，請看一下基本面。

This is economy.

這就是經濟。

The value flows to the core, to the fountain, to the source.

價值流向核心、流向源頭、流向源頭。

If you have manufacturing costs, 1/5 to 1/10 of US, this nearshoring trend with the policies that the new government, the new president is explaining is going to help Mexico big time.

如果你的製造成本是美國的 1/5 到 1/10，這種近岸趨勢以及新政府、新總統正在解釋的政策將對墨西哥大有幫助。

Thank you very much, Britta.

非常感謝你，布麗塔。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

Ignacio Cerezo, UBS.

伊格納西奧·塞雷佐，瑞銀集團。

Yeah, hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions.

是的，嗨，早安，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I've got two as well.

我也有兩個。

The first one is on Turkey, which feels to me is the place where there might be a big amount of upside versus straight expectations.

第一個是關於土耳其，在我看來，與直接預期相比，土耳其可能存在很大的上行空間。

So excluding any hyperinflation and currency discussions, which are slightly outside your control on the local P&L and the underlying P&L.

因此，排除任何惡性通貨膨脹和貨幣討論，這些討論稍微超出您對當地損益和基礎損益的控制範圍。

I mean, feels like NII margins are probably depressed, feels like fees actually and costs will probably be linked to inflation.

我的意思是，感覺 NII 利潤率可能會下降，感覺費用實際上和成本可能與通貨膨脹有關。

So I'm trying to understand if there is a negative offsetting factor against the margin expansion trend that we should be expecting things like trading income, for example, being too high or cost of risk being too low.

因此，我試圖了解是否存在與保證金擴張趨勢相反的負面抵銷因素，我們應該預期交易收入過高或風險成本過低等情況。

So framing the discussion a little bit on Turkey.

因此，我們的討論主要圍繞在土耳其。

And then the second one, I'm sorry if I missed the explanation.

然後是第二個，如果我錯過了解釋，我很抱歉。

The decline of Basel IV impact from 40 to 15 basis points, what drives that?

巴塞爾 IV 影響力從 40 個基點下降到 15 個基點，是什麼推動了這個趨勢？

And if the 15 basis points is a new fully loaded number and that we need to take into consideration or there are some phased out basically impacting '25, '26.

如果 15 個基點是一個新的滿載數字，我們需要考慮這一點，或者有一些逐步取消的基本點會影響 25 年、26 年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very good, Nacho, thank you for the questions on Turkey.

很好，納喬，謝謝你關於土耳其的問題。

Well, the upside will come from net interest income.

嗯，上行空間將來自淨利息收入。

The rest, net fees and commissions, net trading income, they will continue to behave as they have been behaving.

其餘的，淨費用和佣金，淨交易收入，他們將繼續像以前一樣表現。

So we don't see something really negative that might be coming along those lines.

因此，我們並沒有看到任何可能出現的真正負面的情況。

The negative might come from cost of risk.

負面影響可能來自風險成本。

We guided you 110 basis points, if you remember, for this year.

如果您還記得的話，今年我們指導您的利率為 110 個基點。

We are still at 85 or 84 basis points to be specific.

具體來說，我們仍處於 85 或 84 個基點。

So 110 basis points was our expectation.

因此我們的預期是 110 個基點。

It's coming a bit better.

情況會好一點。

But in an environment of interest rates being at 50%, which it has to be, otherwise the economic correction might not happen, that might have an implication of cost of risk.

但在利率必須達到 50% 的環境下，否則經濟調整可能不會發生，這可能會帶來風險成本。

So if you are asking me what can be the negative in Turkey, maybe in the future cost of risk, we don't know if the rates stay too high.

因此，如果你問我土耳其的負面影響是什麼，也許是未來的風險成本，我們不知道利率是否仍然太高。

But the upside is clearly there.

但好處顯然是存在的。

Upside is clearly there for two reasons.

顯然存在上升空間有兩個原因。

NII will improve.

NII將會改善。

The spread that you see which is slightly negative.

您看到的價差略為負值。

We are seeing it, even in July, that it is picking up.

即使在七月，我們也看到它正在回升。

And if rates come down -- we are very sensitive to rates, but if rates coming down, we have a huge potential upside there as well.

如果利率下降——我們對利率非常敏感，但如果利率下降，我們也有巨大的潛在上漲空間。

So in our view, NII will be improving in the coming quarters.

因此，我們認為，NII 將在未來幾季有所改善。

And the second thing is we do hyperinflationary accounting, as you know, in Turkey.

第二件事是，如你所知，我們在土耳其進行惡性通貨膨脹會計。

If inflation comes down, you do have a major upside also.

如果通貨膨脹下降，你也確實有一個重大的好處。

And inflation, as I said, the June number was 1.6% monthly inflation.

至於通貨膨脹，正如我所說，6 月的月度通貨膨脹率為 1.6%。

It used to be 9% last summer.

去年夏天曾經是9%。

Then it came down 6%, 3%, 1.6%.

然後下降了6%、3%、1.6%。

In July and August, it might be slightly higher because of the seasonality.

7月和8月，由於季節性原因，可能會稍微高一些。

But if Turkey maintains this monthly inflation pace of 1%, 2%.

但如果土耳其維持每月1%、2%的通膨率。

First of all, the environment will improve, and it will help in every single line item and especially NII, but then it will help us also in the hyperinflationary impact.

首先，環境將會改善，這將對每個項目都有幫助，尤其是NII，但隨後它也有助於我們應對惡性通貨膨脹的影響。

On that one, maybe I give you just one number on the sensitivity. 10% inflation with 10% devaluation has a bottom line, including CPIs and everything.

就這一點而言，也許我只給你一個關於靈敏度的數字。 10%的通膨加上10%的貶值是有底線的，包括CPI什麼的。

Has a bottom-line profit implication of around EUR150 million.

利潤影響約 1.5 億歐元。

So if rather than 45%, it's 25% -- 20% decline in inflation, just the pure hyperinflation impact would be EUR300 million, bottom line.

因此，如果通膨下降 25% 至 20%，而不是 45%，那麼純粹的惡性通膨影響將達到 3 億歐元。

So we have a clear upside in Turkey in my view.

因此，我認為土耳其有明顯的優勢。

Regarding the Basel?

關於巴塞爾？

Well, as we mentioned during the presentation, Onur, these numbers are still very preliminary, obviously, because you know that there are still RTSs that are expected by the end of the year and going into next year.

嗯，正如我們在演示中提到的那樣，Onur，這些數字顯然仍然是非常初步的，因為您知道預計到今年年底並進入明年仍然會有 RTS。

And I think that there are still uncertainties around the final calculations of the impacts of Basel IV.

我認為巴塞爾IV影響的最終計算仍然存在不確定性。

I think the main aspect in the reduced guidance, which again is still preliminary versus the previous one, is due to the review of some criteria, particularly under the new regulation affecting trade finance guarantees, some operational risk.

我認為減少指導的主要方面（與先前的指導相比仍然是初步的）是由於對一些標準的審查，特別是在影響貿易融資擔保的新法規下，以及一些操作風險。

So overall, I think we can expect a lower impact, a much lower impact than the industry average, mainly as well as, because we expect no impact from the output floor.

因此，總的來說，我認為我們可以預期影響會較低，比行業平均水平低得多，主要是因為我們預計產量不會受到影響。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Andrea Filtri, Mediobanca.

安德里亞·菲爾特里，Mediobanca。

Hi.

你好。

Two clarifications for me, please.

請向我澄清兩點。

First, if you could elaborate a bit more and give some color on the positives in the others component of slide 14, what is compensating the large negative market impact?

首先，如果您可以對幻燈片 14 的其他部分中的積極因素進行更多闡述並給出一些顏色，那麼什麼是補償巨大的負面市場影響？

And second, a follow-up from Nacho's question on Basel IV, is the below 15 basis points new guidance a day one impact or fully loaded?

其次，納喬關於巴塞爾 IV 的問題的後續內容是，每日低於 15 個基點的新指引是影響還是滿載？

Can you provide both please and what is the FRTB component you put in that?

您能否提供一下您放入其中的 FRTB 組件是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

What is the -- what component, Andrea?

什麼是－－什麼組件，安德里亞？

FRTB.

FRTB。

On the first question, the page number 14, what is in other?

關於第一個問題，第14頁，其他是什麼？

The positive ones, hyperinflationary impact.

正面的影響是惡性通貨膨脹的影響。

You do know that in hyperinflationary accounting, you deduct the hyperinflation impact from the P&L, but it's not a capital item.

您確實知道，在惡性通貨膨脹會計中，您從損益表中扣除了惡性通貨膨脹的影響，但這不是資本項目。

So you add it back to capital, number one.

所以你把它加回資本，第一。

And then minority interests and the other category, which is around plus 8, plus 9 basis points.

然後是少數股東權益和其他類別，大約加8、加9個基點。

So those are the three things.

這就是三件事。

Minorities, others, which is deductions, basically, and then the hyperinflationary impact.

少數族裔，其他人，基本上是扣除，然後是惡性通貨膨脹的影響。

Well, no, what we have is an estimate, and again, preliminary estimate, because there are still high uncertainties around these numbers on a fully loaded basis.

嗯，不，我們得到的是一個估計，而且是初步估計，因為在滿載的基礎上這些數字仍然存在很大的不確定性。

So we're giving the fully loaded number.

所以我們給出滿載的數字。

We can't give any more details, really, until we have clarity on the RTSs to come.

事實上，在我們明確即將推出的 RTS 之前，我們無法提供更多細節。

Again, there are some expected by the end of the year, and then we will have a better outlook of what the impact will be going into 2025.

同樣，預計到今年年底會有一些結果，然後我們將對 2025 年的影響有更好的展望。

On FRTB, what I can say is that the impact is very limited.

對於FRTB，我能說的是影響非常有限。

So, thank you very much, Andrea.

所以，非常感謝你，安德里亞。

This was the last question.

這是最後一個問題。

Thank you very much for all of you for participating in this call.

非常感謝大家參與本次電話會議。

Let me remind that the IR team will be available to answer any questions you might have.

請允許我提醒您，IR 團隊將隨時回答您的任何問題。

And I hope you have a very nice summer.

我希望你度過一個愉快的夏天。

Thank you.

謝謝。