美國銀行 (BAC) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Bank of America earnings announcement.

大家好，歡迎收看今天的美國銀行財報。

(Operator Instructions) Please note this call may be recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's conference over to Lee McEntire.

現在我很高興將今天的會議交給李·麥肯泰爾。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you, Katherine.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。

Thanks for joining the call to review our fourth quarter 2019 and our full year results.

感謝您參加回顧我們 2019 年第四季和全年業績的電話會議。

By now, I hope everyone's had a chance to review the earnings release documents, which are available on the Investor Relations section of bankofamerica.com website.

到目前為止，我希望每個人都有機會查看收益發布文件，這些文件可以在bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Before I turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for a few remarks, let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements during the call.

在我將電話轉給我們的執行長布萊恩·莫伊尼漢（Brian Moynihan）發表幾句話之前，請允許我提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述。

For further information on those forward-looking comments, please refer to either our earnings release documents, our website or our SEC filings.

有關這些前瞻性評論的更多信息，請參閱我們的收益發布文件、我們的網站或我們向 SEC 提交的文件。

After Brian's comments, our CFO, Paul Donofrio, will review more details on the 4Q results.

在 Brian 發表評論後，我們的財務長 Paul Donofrio 將審查有關第四季度業績的更多詳細資訊。

We'll then open up for questions.

然後我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

So let's get rolling.

那麼就讓我們開始行動吧。

Brian?

布萊恩？

Thank you, Lee.

謝謝你，李。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review our results.

大家早安，感謝您與我們一起回顧我們的結果。

I'm going to let Paul take you through the fourth quarter, which reflected a strong finish to close out 2019.

我將讓保羅帶您回顧第四季度，這反映了 2019 年的強勁收官。

But before that, I want to give you a high-level view on our results.

但在此之前，我想先向您介紹我們的結果。

Of course, our results continue to reflect the strength of the U.S. consumer in the biggest economy in the world.

當然，我們的結果繼續反映了美國這個世界最大經濟體的消費者實力。

We continue to be well positioned here in driving market share gains with great service and capabilities.

我們繼續處於有利地位，透過優質的服務和能力推動市場份額的成長。

This quarter is also one of transition from a period of rising rates in 2018 to one that is moving through the impact of the declining rates in the second half of 2019.

本季也是從 2018 年利率上升時期向 2019 年下半年利率下降影響過渡的時期之一。

How do you run a company, a big bank and deal with lower rates?

你如何經營一家公司、大銀行並應對較低的利率？

Well, we drive what we can control with our sempiternal commitment to responsible growth.

嗯，我們透過對負責任的成長的永恆承諾來推動我們能夠控制的事情。

We drive more loans, more deposits, more assets under management and driving growth with the right pricing and at the right risks.

我們推動更多貸款、更多存款、管理更多資產，並以正確的定價和適當的風險推動成長。

We also have to manage our cost base carefully while making the required investments, and we have to take advantage of a strong balance sheet to provide good capital return to our shareholders.

我們還必須在進行所需投資的同時仔細管理我們的成本基礎，並且我們必須利用強大的資產負債表為股東提供良好的資本回報。

At Bank of America, we checked the box on all these in the quarter.

在美國銀行，我們在本季度檢查了所有這些內容。

We grew loans -- average loans by 6% in our lines of businesses.

我們增加了貸款——我們業務領域的平均貸款增加了 6%。

We grew the deposits by 5% with very disciplined deposit pricing.

我們透過非常嚴格的存款定價將存款增加了 5%。

Our expenses were relatively flat again while we increased investments across our whole company.

當我們增加整個公司的投資時，我們的支出再次相對持平。

And in doing that, we earned $7 billion after tax this quarter, with a return on tangible common equity of 15.4%.

透過這樣做，我們本季稅後收入為 70 億美元，有形普通股回報率為 15.4%。

And due to our strong balance sheet, we returned $9.1 billion of capital to our common shareholders this quarter.

由於我們強大的資產負債表，本季我們向普通股股東返還了 91 億美元的資本。

At the same time, we deployed capital to support growth for our clients, communities and teammates.

同時，我們部署資本來支持我們的客戶、社群和團隊成員的成長。

Let me -- let's start on Slide 2. I'm referring to the full year results excluding third quarter '19 joint venture impairment charge.

讓我—讓我們從投影片 2 開始。我指的是全年業績，不包括 19 年第三季合資企業減損費用。

We generated $29 billion net income in 2019, a record for our company.

2019 年，我們實現了 290 億美元的淨利潤，創下了公司的記錄。

That was 3% better than the prior year's results.

這比前一年的結果好 3%。

We are also able to reduce shares by 9%, driving earnings per share up by 12% for 2019.

我們也能夠減持 9% 的股份，從而推動 2019 年每股收益成長 12%。

These results were driven by execution on all the pillars of responsible growth.

這些成果是由負責任成長的所有支柱的執行所推動的。

We grew by serving our clients well and improved our market share across the board.

我們透過為客戶提供良好的服務而成長，並全面提高了我們的市場份額。

We remain disciplined in our risk and our client selection framework.

我們在風險和客戶選擇框架方面保持嚴格的紀律。

And by the way, our results are more sustainable as our focus on operational excellence led to a 58% efficiency ratio in 2019 while making the investments we need to make.

順便說一句，我們的成果更具可持續性，因為我們對卓越營運的關注使得 2019 年的效率達到了 58%，同時進行了我們需要的投資。

Our return on equity was 11% for the year.

今年我們的股本回報率為 11%。

Our return on tangible common equity was 15.8% for the year.

今年我們的有形普通股報酬率為 15.8%。

Record earnings allowed us to invest in our client capabilities, invest in our people and invest in our communities, all while holding the expenses in check.

創紀錄的獲利使我們能夠投資於客戶能力、員工和社區，同時控制開支。

Take a look at Slide 3. You can see the investments we made across all our constituencies.

看一下投影片 3。您可以看到我們在所有選區進行的投資。

And at the same time, we delivered strong returns for our shareholders.

同時，我們為股東帶來了豐厚的回報。

To deliver for our clients, we continued our investment in talent.

為了為客戶提供服務，我們繼續對人才進行投資。

In 2019, we grew the company by 3,600 teammates.

2019 年，我們的公司增加了 3,600 名團隊成員。

Overall, we hired 32,000 teammates in 2019, including 6,300 new employees from low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, 4,000 college and MBA graduates, and we also completed our 5-year goal to hire 10,000 military veterans into our company.

總體而言，2019 年我們聘用了 32,000 名員工，其中包括 6,300 名來自中低收入社區的新員工、4,000 名大學和 MBA 畢業生，我們還完成了聘用 10,000 名退伍軍人進入公司的 5 年目標。

We completed more than $3 billion in new technology code initiatives last year, building on years of investments in award-winning digital and mobile capabilities to serve our clients better and help our teammates be more efficient.

去年，我們在多年來對屢獲殊榮的數位和行動功能的投資的基礎上，完成了超過 30 億美元的新技術代碼計劃，以更好地服務我們的客戶並幫助我們的團隊成員提高效率。

Most importantly, these investments are bearing fruit as you can see in our customer usage numbers that Paul will talk about.

最重要的是，這些投資正在取得成果，正如您可以在保羅將談論的我們的客戶使用數據中看到的那樣。

Just a simple example.

只是一個簡單的例子。

We surpassed 10 million clients using Erica, our industry-leading consumer AI agent.

我們使用業界領先的消費者 AI 代理商 Erica 的客戶數量已超過 1,000 萬人。

We introduced Erica about 18 months ago, and now it's starting to reap the scale benefits.

我們大約 18 個月前推出了 Erica，現在它開始獲得規模效益。

Erica is an example of billions of dollars of scaled innovation fueled by our work on operational excellence.

Erica 是我們卓越營運工作所推動的數十億美元規模創新的一個例子。

These savings generated by operational excellence also enable us to make capital investments in our company of $1.7 billion during 2019 for newer modernized facilities and other related priorities.

卓越營運帶來的節省也使我們能夠在 2019 年對該公司進行 17 億美元的資本投資，用於更新的現代化設施和其他相關優先事項。

And in the past 3 years, we've built 207 new financial centers and modernized more than 1,300.

在過去 3 年裡，我們新建了 207 個金融中心，並對 1,300 多個金融中心進行了現代化改造。

For our employees, we will start at $20 per hour minimum starting pay beginning in March.

對於我們的員工，從 3 月開始，我們的起薪最低為每小時 20 美元。

The cost of all these enhancements, importantly, are in our run rate of expenses, providing the capacity to keep investing in the future without increasing expenses.

重要的是，所有這些增強功能的成本都在我們的費用運行率中，提供了在不增加費用的情況下繼續投資未來的能力。

Also for 2019, for the third consecutive year, we shared our financial success with our teammates with special compensation awards to approximately 95% of them.

同樣在 2019 年，我們連續第三年與我們的團隊成員分享我們的財務成功，並向其中約 95% 的團隊成員提供了特別薪酬獎勵。

3 years of special compensation awards totaled $1.6 billion in compensation in addition to all other bonuses and merit and everything else, allowing our teammates to do more with their families.

3年的特別薪酬獎勵加上所有其他獎金和功績等一切，總計16億美元的薪酬，讓我們的隊友能夠與家人一起做更多的事情。

Last year, we also delivered more than $5 billion of community development financing for affordable housing and other important local priorities.

去年，我們也為經濟適用房和其他重要的當地優先事項提供了超過 50 億美元的社區發展融資。

We've made more than $250 million of philanthropic contribution to help drive economic mobility, including workforce training and development and many other local priorities where we help make a difference.

我們已經提供了超過 2.5 億美元的慈善捐款來幫助推動經濟流動，包括勞動力培訓和發展以及我們幫助做出改變的許多其他當地優先事項。

We also completed our 10-year $125 billion environmental business initiative goal in 2019.

我們也在 2019 年完成了 10 年 1,250 億美元的環境業務計畫目標。

We made that commitment 4 years ago.

我們四年前就做出了這個承諾。

And it was a 10-year commitment, and we completed 6 years early.

這是一個為期 10 年的承諾，我們提前 6 年完成了。

That's why, this year, we set a new goal of $300 billion environmental initiatives across the next decade.

這就是為什麼今年我們設定了一個新目標，在未來十年內為環保舉措投入 3000 億美元。

It was a strong year for our company and our team, capping our first decade.

對於我們公司和我們的團隊來說，這是強勁的一年，為我們的第一個十年畫上了圓滿的句號。

But here at Bank of America we have a saying, nice start.

但在美國銀行，我們有一句話：好的開始。

We know we can do so much more in the future.

我們知道未來我們可以做更多的事情。

So on Slide 4, I want to talk about the line of business results.

在投影片 4 上，我想談談業務部門的績效。

The team's hard work has created strong improvement in earnings across the board in our lines of business.

該團隊的辛勤工作為我們業務領域的全面盈利帶來了強勁的改善。

Dean Athanasia and the consumer team generated impressive $13 billion in after-tax earnings in our consumer and small business group by driving responsible growth.

Dean Athanasia 和消費者團隊透過推動負責任的成長，為我們的消費者和小型企業集團創造了令人印象深刻的 130 億美元稅後收入。

They continue to provide real value for clients through innovative products and services while driving improvements in upgraded facilities, entering new markets and driving innovation.

他們繼續透過創新產品和服務為客戶提供真正的價值，同時推動設施升級改進、進入新市場並推動創新。

Consumer's record level of efficiency and customer satisfaction scores reflect the hard work done the right way.

消費者創紀錄的效率水準和客戶滿意度分數反映了以正確方式完成的辛勤工作。

Andy Sieg and Katy Knox together run our Global Wealth & Investment Management businesses.

安迪西格 (Andy Sieg) 和凱蒂諾克斯 (Katy Knox) 共同經營我們的全球財富與投資管理業務。

They drove net new household growth in 2019 and more integration across those businesses with the rest of the franchise.

他們推動了 2019 年新家庭的淨成長，並推動了這些業務與其他特許經營業務的進一步整合。

Merrill Lynch alone brought in more than 40,000 net new affluent households during 2019.

2019 年，光是美林證券就淨新增超過 4 萬個富裕家庭。

Margins in that business remained near the record levels.

該業務的利潤率仍接近歷史最高水準。

We generated $1 billion-plus in quarterly earnings in the quarters of 2019 and topped, this quarter, $3 trillion in client balances for the first time.

我們在 2019 年季度的季度營收超過 10 億美元，本季客戶餘額首次突破 3 兆美元。

Tom Montag and his team across the Global Banking and Global Markets franchises are running one of the biggest commercial lending business in the world and one of the top market-making investment banking platforms.

湯姆·蒙塔格（Tom Montag）和他的全球銀行和全球市場特許經營團隊正在經營世界上最大的商業貸款業務之一和頂級的做市投資銀行平台之一。

This powerful combination of Global Banking and Global Markets generated $11.6 billion in after-tax net income this year.

全球銀行業和全球市場的強大組合今年創造了 116 億美元的稅後淨利。

The team continues to get its fair share of the fee pools across the globe and became more important partners for many of the world's largest clients.

該團隊繼續在全球費用池中獲得公平的份額，並成為許多全球最大客戶更重要的合作夥伴。

With a renewed focus, our investment banking team regained some of lost market share from a couple of years ago, and Paul will give you those numbers later.

透過重新關注，我們的投資銀行團隊重新奪回了幾年前失去的一些市場份額，保羅稍後會向您提供這些數字。

Matthew Koder and team have done a great job of doing that.

馬修·科德 (Matthew Koder) 和團隊在這方面做得非常出色。

In addition, that team across the board continues to drive innovation in our Global Treasury Services platform.

此外，該團隊全面繼續推動我們的全球財務服務平台的創新。

Paul is going to show you some of those capabilities in the slides later.

保羅將在稍後的幻燈片中向您展示其中一些功能。

All these business accomplishments across all these businesses while driving relatively flat cost.

所有這些業務所取得的所有這些業務成就同時推動了相對穩定的成本。

Let's move to the trends on Slide 5. Our strong balance sheet and strong earnings have driven a corresponding strong increase in our return of capital.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 5 中的趨勢。我們強勁的資產負債表和強勁的盈利推動了我們的資本回報率相應強勁增長。

We have now dropped below 9 billion shares outstanding, 9.1 billion shares on a fully diluted basis, as shown here on the left side of the page.

現在，我們已發行的股票數量已降至 90 億股以下，完全稀釋後的股票數量為 91 億股，如頁面左側所示。

In total, we reduced the share count by nearly 2.5 billion shares from its peak a few years ago.

總的來說，我們的股票數量比幾年前的高峰減少了近25億股。

As we look into 2020, Paul will give you some specific guidance on the company's view of what we see in our outlook, but for more general guidance, our research team -- our award-winning research team sees more generally the U.S. GDP growth at just below 2% and a global GDP growth just above 3%.

在我們展望 2020 年時，保羅將就公司對我們的前景的看法提供一些具體指導，但對於更一般的指導，我們的研究團隊——我們屢獲殊榮的研究團隊更普遍地認為美國 GDP 增長為略低於2%，全球GDP 成長率略高於3%。

We at Bank of America have seen in our consumer business a substantial amount of activity.

美國銀行在消費者業務中看到了大量的活動。

In our consumer business, we see that our customers are coming off a strong finish in 2019 in their spending activity.

在我們的消費者業務中，我們看到客戶在 2019 年的支出活動表現強勁。

In addition, there's good loan demand.

此外，貸款需求良好。

This results from good employment levels and growing wages.

這是良好的就業水平和不斷增長的工資的結果。

At Bank of America spending by our consumers grew at 5.9% over $3 trillion in spending from 2019 over 2018.

與 2018 年相比，美國銀行 2019 年消費者支出成長了 5.9%，超過 3 兆美元。

We saw solid loan demand in our commercial client base throughout the year, but that moderated in the second half of the year as worries about global economic uncertainty and all the issues that are talked about every day dragged on.

全年我們的商業客戶群的貸款需求強勁，但由於對全球經濟不確定性和每天討論的所有問題的擔憂持續存在，下半年貸款需求有所放緩。

Today, we see some resolution of those issues.

今天，我們看到這些問題得到了一些解決。

And that, combined with continued consumer strength, leads us to expect to see businesses continue their solid activity, and we're hearing more optimism.

再加上消費者的持續強勁，我們預期企業將繼續進行穩健的活動，並且我們聽到了更多的樂觀情緒。

All this provides a great backdrop to drive responsible growth and continue to deliver for you.

所有這些都為推動負責任的成長並繼續為您提供服務提供了良好的背景。

With that, I'll turn it over to Paul.

有了這個，我會把它交給保羅。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

You can see the summary of our Q4 results on Slide 6, and I'm going to begin on Slide 7.

您可以在投影片 6 上看到我們第四季結果的摘要，我將從投影片 7 開始。

In the fourth quarter, we reported $7 billion in net income and $0.74 in EPS.

第四季度，我們公佈了 70 億美元的淨利潤和 0.74 美元的每股盈餘。

EPS increased 6% from Q4 '18, reflecting modestly lower earnings more than offset by a 9% reduction in average diluted shares.

每股盈餘較 18 年第 4 季成長 6%，反映出獲利小幅下降，但被平均攤薄股減少 9% 所抵銷。

Returns remained strong in Q4, with a return on assets of 113 basis points and a return on tangible common equity of 15%, well above the company's cost of capital.

第四季的報酬率依然強勁，資產報酬率為 113 個基點，有形普通股報酬率為 15%，遠高於公司的資本成本。

Our results were driven by our team's focus and solid progress on managing what we can control and gaining market share in an economy that grew at a low single-digit pace.

我們的表現得益於我們團隊的專注以及在管理我們可以控制的事物以及在低個位數成長的經濟中獲得市場份額方面取得的紮實進展。

In Q4, we again stayed focused on what we can control.

在第四季度，我們再次專注於我們可以控制的事情。

Client activity remained solid, allowing the benefit of loan and deposit growth to aid in offsetting the negative impact of lower short-term rates over the past 3 quarters.

客戶活動保持穩健，貸款和存款成長的好處有助於抵消過去三個季度短期利率下降的負面影響。

We also continued to see healthy consumer trends in spending and asset quality.

我們也繼續看到消費和資產品質的健康趨勢。

Lastly, we experienced a nice rebound in FICC trading from a more negative environment a year ago.

最後，我們的 FICC 交易從一年前更為不利的環境中出現了良好的反彈。

So having set the stage, let's turn to the details, starting with the balance sheet on Slide 8. Overall, compared to the end of Q3, the balance sheet was relatively flat at $2.4 trillion as growth of both loans and securities was modestly offset by lower global market assets.

因此，在做好準備之後，讓我們轉向細節，從幻燈片8 中的資產負債表開始。總體而言，與第三季末相比，資產負債表相對持平，為2.4 兆美元，因為貸款和證券的成長被適度抵消了。全球市場資產下降。

Deposits grew $42 billion and were first deployed to fund $11 billion of loan growth, with most of the excess funding the growth in debt securities.

存款增加了 420 億美元，首先用於為 110 億美元的貸款成長提供資金，其中大部分過剩資金為債務證券的成長提供資金。

Liquidity improved as the average global liquidity sources benefited from deposit growth.

由於全球平均流動性來源受益於存款成長，流動性有所改善。

Shareholders' equity declined $4 billion, driven mostly by the return of excess capital.

股東權益下降了 40 億美元，主要是因為過剩資本的回饋所致。

In Q4, we returned $9.1 billion in capital through net share repurchases and dividends, which exceeded the $7 billion earned.

第四季度，我們透過淨股票回購和股息返還了 91 億美元的資本，超過了 70 億美元的收入。

OCI declined by roughly $1 billion.

OCI 下降了約 10 億美元。

Note that our book value per share of $27.32 has improved 9% from Q4 '18.

請注意，我們的每股帳面價值為 27.32 美元，較 18 年第四季提高了 9%。

With respect to regulatory metrics, we remain comfortably above our minimum requirements, driven by the excess -- driven by the return of the excess capital I just reviewed.

就監管指標而言，在我剛剛審查的超額資本回報的推動下，我們仍然輕鬆地高於最低要求。

Our CET1 standardized ratio decreased to 11.2% but remained well above our 9.5% minimum requirement.

我們的 CET1 標準化比率下降至 11.2%，但仍遠高於 9.5% 的最低要求。

Our risk-weighted assets increased modestly from consumer loan growth and increased Global Banking exposures.

我們的風險加權資產因消費貸款成長和全球銀行業務敞口增加而小幅增長。

Lastly, our TLAC ratio also remained comfortably above our requirements.

最後，我們的 TLAC 比率也始終高於我們的要求。

Looking at how client activity impacted average balances.

查看客戶活動如何影響平均餘額。

Let's start with deposits on Slide 9. Average deposits grew $65 billion or 5% year-over-year.

讓我們從幻燈片 9 上的存款開始。平均存款年增 650 億美元，即 5%。

For 4.5 years now, we have grown deposits on a year-over-year basis every quarter by more than $40 billion.

4.5 年來，我們每季的存款年增超過 400 億美元。

Consumer Banking deposits grew $33 billion or 5% as we believe customers value the convenience of our financial centers and ATM network, leading online and mobile capabilities and our unique Preferred Rewards program.

消費者銀行存款增加了 330 億美元，即 5%，因為我們相信客戶重視我們金融中心和 ATM 網路的便利性、領先的線上和行動功能以及我們獨特的首選獎勵計劃。

But much of this growth continues to be led by checking balances, which we consider to be the core operational deposits of these customers.

但這種成長的大部分仍然是由支票餘額帶動的，我們認為這是這些客戶的核心營運存款。

Wealth management deposits grew $8 billion or 3% year-over-year.

理財存款年增80億美元，成長3%。

Global Banking deposits grew $19 billion or 5% year-over-year and reflected both our strong GTS platform and the additional bankers we have deployed over the past couple of years.

全球銀行存款年增 190 億美元，即 5%，反映了我們強大的 GTS 平台以及過去幾年我們部署的更多銀行家。

Looking at average loans on Slide 10.

查看幻燈片 10 上的平均貸款。

You see pretty consistent client activity.

您會看到相當一致的客戶活動。

Overall, average loans of $974 billion were up more than 4% year-over-year.

總體而言，平均貸款額為 9,740 億美元，年增超過 4%。

More importantly, average loans in our lines of business grew $54 billion or 6% year-over-year as consumer loans grew 7% and commercial loans grew 6%.

更重要的是，我們業務領域的平均貸款年增 540 億美元，成長 6%，其中消費貸款成長 7%，商業貸款成長 6%。

As you can see in the bottom right-hand chart, we continued to demonstrate a fairly consistent range of responsible growth.

正如您在右下角圖表中看到的那樣，我們繼續展示了相當一致的負責任成長範圍。

Commercial loan growth was broad-based.

商業貸款成長基礎廣泛。

Loans to middle-market clients grew 10%.

向中間市場客戶提供的貸款成長了 10%。

But I would note the more stable linked-quarter balances here as revolver utilization moved a bit lower.

但我會注意到，隨著左輪手槍利用率略有下降，這裡的連結季度餘額更加穩定。

We also saw growth in lending to small businesses, growing 7%, and within consumer, we saw strong growth of residential mortgages.

我們也看到小型企業貸款成長了 7%，而在消費者方面，我們看到住宅抵押貸款強勁成長。

I would also note that the stability of credit card balances, which reflects our decision last year to pull back on less profitable promotional balances as we continue to prioritize sustainable long-term profitability.

我還要指出的是信用卡餘額的穩定性，這反映了我們去年決定減少利潤較低的促銷餘額，因為我們繼續優先考慮可持續的長期獲利能力。

Turning to Slide 11 and net interest income.

轉向幻燈片 11 和淨利息收入。

On a GAAP non-FTE basis in Q4, NII was $12.1 billion, $12.3 billion on an FTE basis and was relatively flat compared to Q3 '19.

以 GAAP 非 FTE 計算，第四季的 NII 為 121 億美元，以 FTE 計算為 123 億美元，與 19 年第三季相比相對持平。

The benefits of loan and deposit growth, coupled with disciplined pricing, mostly offset the impact across short-term rates of a linked-quarter 47 basis point decline in the average Fed funds rate.

貸款和存款成長的好處，加上嚴格的定價，大部分抵消了聯邦基金利率平均下降 47 個基點對短期利率的影響。

And while long-term rates were up modestly on a spot basis, on average, for the quarter, there was little change.

儘管長期利率在現貨基礎上小幅上漲，但平均而言，本季變化不大。

For the full year of 2019, GAAP NII of $48.9 billion was up 1% despite lower short-term rates.

2019 年全年，儘管短期利率較低，但 GAAP NII 仍成長 1%，達 489 億美元。

This is consistent with the perspective we had conveyed to you since the middle of the year.

這與我們自年中以來向大家傳達的觀點是一致的。

We remain disciplined with respect to deposit pricing.

我們在存款定價方面仍然遵守紀律。

In Q4, the rate paid on total interest-bearing deposits of 61 basis points declined 15 basis points.

第四季度，計息存款利率61個基點，下降15個基點。

In Consumer Banking, which accounts for more than half of our $1.4 trillion of deposits, customer pricing remained relatively unchanged.

消費者銀行業務占我們 1.4 兆美元存款的一半以上，客戶定價相對保持不變。

On the other hand, in Global Banking and wealth management, the decline from Q3 in the rate paid on interest-bearing deposits was more in line with the 38 basis point drop in average 1-month LIBOR.

另一方面，在全球銀行和財富管理領域，計息存款利率較第三季的下降與平均 1 個月 LIBOR 下降 38 個基點更為一致。

Okay.

好的。

Looking forward, as we move into 2020, let me start by saying our expectations assume a stable economic and interest rate environment, i.e., flat rates relative to the end of the year.

展望未來，在我們邁入 2020 年之際，我首先要說的是，我們的預期假設經濟和利率環境穩定，即相對於年底的利率保持不變。

Given those assumptions, we expect NII in Q1 to be lower than Q4 as the benefits of loan and deposit growth will be more than offset by 3 things.

鑑於這些假設，我們預計第一季的NII將低於第四季度，因為貸款和存款成長的好處將被三件事所抵消。

First, with respect to Q1, we will have 1 less day of interest.

首先，對於第一季度，我們的利息將減少 1 天。

Second, we expect lower loan yields to be more fully reflected from the late October Fed rate cut.

其次，我們預期貸款殖利率的下降將更充分反映在 10 月底聯準會降息。

Third, reinvestment rates are expected to dilute securities yields despite fractionally higher long-end rates.

第三，儘管長期利率略有上升，但再投資利率預計將稀釋證券收益率。

Moving to Q2, we typically experience seasonally lower NII for 2 reasons.

進入第二季度，我們通常會遇到季節性較低的 NII，原因有二。

First, we typically see higher interest expense from funding increased seasonal Global Markets client activity in equities.

首先，我們通常會看到更高的利息支出來自於為季節性全球市場客戶的股票活動提供資金。

The benefit of this activity shows up in noninterest income instead of interest income.

這項活動的好處體現在非利息收入而不是利息收入。

Second, we also typically see lower average card balances as clients pay down their holiday balances.

其次，隨著客戶支付假期餘額，我們通常也會看到平均卡片餘額較低。

Both of these seasonal patterns have historically led to lower NII in Q2 compared to Q1.

從歷史上看，這兩種季節性模式都導致第二季的NII低於第一季。

So we would expect NII in the first 2 quarters of 2020 to be a bit lower than Q4 '19.

因此，我們預計 2020 年前 2 季的 NII 將略低於 19 年第四季。

From there, we would expect NII to rise modestly in the second half of the year driven by an additional day of interest and continued loan and deposit growth.

從那時起，我們預計在利息增加以及貸款和存款持續成長的推動下，NII 將在下半年小幅上升。

Turning to Slide 12 and quarterly expenses over the past 2 years.

轉向投影片 12 和過去 2 年的季度支出。

At $13.2 billion this quarter, expenses were 1% higher than Q4 '18 as increased investments throughout 2019 in people, real estate and technology initiatives were largely offset by savings from operational excellence and lower amortization of intangibles.

本季的支出為132 億美元，比2018 年第四季高出1%，因為2019 年全年在人員、房地產和技術計劃方面增加的投資在很大程度上被卓越營運帶來的節省和較低的無形資產攤銷所抵銷。

We have been operating in a tight range for more than 2 years now, with quarterly expense in the low $13 billion range in all but 1 quarter if you adjust for the 3Q '19 impairment.

兩年多來，我們一直在狹窄的範圍內運營，如果對 2019 年第三季的減值進行調整，除第 1 季外的所有季度支出都在 130 億美元的低水平範圍內。

So annually, we've been able to maintain a $53 billion expense base despite increased investments in tech, infrastructure, buildings, people, philanthropy and the other costs that Brian mentioned in the opening of the call.

因此，儘管增加了對技術、基礎設施、建築、人員、慈善事業以及布萊恩在電話會議開頭提到的其他成本的投資，但我們每年仍能夠維持 530 億美元的支出基礎。

With respect to headcount, year-over-year savings from improved processes and workflows allowed us to fund an increase in the number of sales professionals as our LOBs added nearly 4,000 associates over the past 12 months.

就員工人數而言，改善流程和工作流程帶來的逐年節省使我們能夠為增加銷售專業人員的數量提供資金，因為我們的 LOB 在過去 12 個月內增加了近 4,000 名員工。

With respect to outlook, our expectations for expense in 2020 haven't really changed from where we provided it in 2016 despite all the added costs of the higher investments and unknowns like Brexit and others since 2016.

就前景而言，儘管自 2016 年以來更高的投資和英國脫歐等未知因素增加了成本，但我們對 2020 年費用的預期與 2016 年相比並沒有真正改變。

We expect our full year expense to be in the low $53 billion range this year, and as long as client activity and the economic environment remain stable, our investment plans will likely remain unchanged.

我們預計今年全年支出將在 530 億美元的低水準範圍內，只要客戶活動和經濟環境保持穩定，我們的投資計畫就可能保持不變。

Having said that, I want to provide you with a few reminders with respect to expenses.

話雖如此，我想向您提供一些有關費用的提醒。

First, Q1 is expected to include about $400 million of seasonally elevated personnel costs related to payroll taxes, with the remaining quarters of 2020 expected to return to a low $13 billion range.

首先，預計第一季將包括約 4 億美元與工資稅相關的季節性上漲的人員成本，2020 年剩餘季度預計將恢復到 130 億美元的低水平。

Also, beginning in Q3, the accounting for the BAMS JV is expected to change following its dissolution.

此外，從第三季開始，BAMS 合資企業的會計預計將在其解散後發生變化。

At that time, we will separately record revenue and expense from merchant servicing operations rather than reflecting our share of the joint venture earnings as a single amount in other income.

屆時，我們將單獨記錄商家服務業務的收入和費用，而不是將我們在合資企業收益中所佔的份額作為單一金額反映在其他收入中。

This will gross up both expenses and revenue with little bottom line impact.

這將增加支出和收入，而對利潤影響很小。

And like we told you in Q3, it's not included in our forward guidance.

正如我們在第三季告訴您的那樣，它不包含在我們的前瞻性指引中。

We will update you as we move closer to that time frame.

當我們接近該時間範圍時，我們會向您通報最新情況。

All right.

好的。

Turning to asset quality on Slide 13.

轉向幻燈片 13 上的資產品質。

Our underwriting standards have been responsible and strong for years now, and asset quality trend reflect this even in this relatively benign credit environment.

多年來，我們的核保標準一直是負責任和強大的，即使在相對良性的信貸環境下，資產品質趨勢也反映了這一點。

Total net charge-offs in Q4 were $959 million compared to $811 million in Q3.

第四季的淨沖銷總額為 9.59 億美元，而第三季的淨沖銷總額為 8.11 億美元。

When comparing to Q3, remember, we sold in Q3 -- we sold some loans in Q3 that resulted in recoveries totaling $198 million that reduced net charge-offs.

與第三季相比，請記住，我們在第三季出售了——我們在第三季出售了一些貸款，收回了總計 1.98 億美元的貸款，從而減少了淨沖銷。

Adjusting for those recoveries, net charge-offs declined $50 million.

根據這些回收情況進行調整後，淨沖銷減少了 5,000 萬美元。

And the net charge-off ratio declined 3 basis points to 39 basis points.

淨核銷率下降3個基點至39個基點。

Compared to Q4 '18, net charge-offs were modestly higher driven primarily by seasoning of the card portfolio.

與 18 年第 4 季相比，淨沖銷額略有上升，主要是由於信用卡組合的老化。

Provision expense was $941 million and mostly match net charge-offs with only modest releases in both Q4 '19 and Q4 '18.

撥備費用為 9.41 億美元，大部分與淨沖銷相匹配，2019 年第 4 季和 18 年第 4 季僅適度釋放。

On Slide 14, we break out credit quality metrics for both our consumer and commercial portfolios.

在投影片 14 中，我們列出了消費者和商業投資組合的信用品質指標。

These metrics show you that asset quality remains strong in both categories.

這些指標表明，這兩個類別的資產品質仍然強勁。

Before turning to the business segments, I will just provide a couple of perspectives on CECL.

在談業務之前，我先簡單介紹一下CECL的一些觀點。

Our day 1 implementation resulted in a $3.3 billion increase in allowance.

我們第一天的實施導致津貼增加了 33 億美元。

This is in line with the last update we gave you.

這與我們給您的最新更新一致。

All else equal, this would lower our CET1 ratio by roughly 20 basis points, but as you know, it is phased into regulatory capital evenly through 2023.

在其他條件相同的情況下，這將使我們的 CET1 比率降低約 20 個基點，但如您所知，它將在 2023 年之前平均分階段納入監管資本。

Okay.

好的。

Turning to the business segments and starting with Consumer Banking on Slide 15.

轉向業務部門，從幻燈片 15 上的消費者銀行業務開始。

Consumer Banking produced another solid quarter of revenue and earnings but was heavily impacted by lower rates in the second half of 2019.

消費者銀行業務又一個季度實現了穩健的收入和盈利，但受到 2019 年下半年利率下降的嚴重影響。

Net income of $3.1 billion declined 10% as revenue fell 4%.

淨利 31 億美元下降 10%，營收下降 4%。

As you know, we have been renovating and adding financial centers, adding sales professionals and advancing digital capabilities.

如您所知，我們一直在翻新和擴大金融中心、增加銷售專業人員並提高數位化能力。

Plus, we increased our minimum wage in 2019 and will again in Q1.

此外，我們在 2019 年提高了最低工資，並將在第一季再次提高。

Despite the cost of increased investments, we have been able to hold expenses relatively flat, and our efficiency ratio was 47%.

儘管增加了投資成本，但我們仍能將開支維持在相對穩定的水平，我們的效率率為 47%。

Away from the impact of rates, which we can't control, client momentum continued as we saw healthy spending, borrowing and savings by clients.

除了我們無法控制的利率影響之外，我們看到客戶的健康支出、借貸和儲蓄，客戶動力仍在繼續。

As a result, year-over-year average deposits increased by $33 billion, up 5% to $720 billion, while maintaining strong pricing discipline.

結果，平均存款年增 330 億美元，增幅 5%，達到 7,200 億美元，同時保持嚴格的定價紀律。

Client investments increased $54 billion, up 29% year-over-year to $240 billion, driven primarily by market, but we also saw $20 billion of client flows and our total net accounts grew 7%.

客戶投資增加了 540 億美元，年增 29%，達到 2,400 億美元，這主要是由市場推動的，但我們也看到了 200 億美元的客戶流量，我們的總淨帳戶增長了 7%。

Loans were up a healthy 7% driven by home loans.

在房屋貸款的推動下，貸款健康增加了 7%。

Debit and credit spending by our customers was up 6% year-over-year, consistent with a record holiday season and asset quality in this segment remained strong with a net charge-off ratio of 118 basis points, down modestly from last year.

我們客戶的金融卡和貸記卡支出年增 6%，與創紀錄的假期季節一致，該細分市場的資產品質依然強勁，淨沖銷率為 118 個基點，較去年略有下降。

Turning to Slide 16.

轉到投影片 16。

I will quickly note continued positive trends across deposits, loans and investments, all of which I touched upon earlier.

我很快就會注意到存款、貸款和投資方面持續的積極趨勢，所有這些我之前都談到過。

This level of activity continues to drive the acknowledgments and rankings in the upper left, and this is a short list of the more than 60 industry awards consumer and digital banking received in 2019.

這種活動水準繼續推動左上角的致謝和排名，這是 2019 年消費者和數位銀行獲得的 60 多個行業獎項的簡短清單。

Turning to Slide '17.

轉向幻燈片'17。

Digital banking continued to drive growth and client engagement as we continued to invest heavily in this channel as a strong complement to our financial centers and ATM network.

數位銀行持續推動成長和客戶參與，我們繼續大力投資這項管道，作為我們金融中心和 ATM 網路的有力補充。

Together, they allowed our customers to bank with us anywhere, anytime and any way they want.

他們共同幫助我們的客戶隨時隨地以他們想要的方式透過我們進行銀行業務。

Over 56% of our clients are now digitally active and logged in 8.1 billion times this year.

我們超過 56% 的客戶現在處於數位活躍狀態，今年登入次數達到 81 億次。

That's up 9% year-over-year.

較去年同期成長 9%。

Digital channels generated 27% of overall sales.

數位管道佔總銷售額的 27%。

34% of mortgages and 56% of client direct auto loans originated through our mobile app or online banking site.

34% 的抵押貸款和 56% 的客戶直接汽車貸款是透過我們的行動應用程式或網路銀行網站發放的。

The digital mortgage experience itself originated $11 billion in loans in 2019 as we continued to add capabilities such as the ability to transfer HELOC balances on a mobile device.

隨著我們不斷增加在行動裝置上轉移 HELOC 餘額等功能，數位抵押體驗本身在 2019 年帶來了 110 億美元的貸款。

And with respect to mobile car shopping, we closed the year with the ability to provide clients access to roughly 2 million cars from our participating dealer inventories.

在行動汽車購物方面，我們能夠為客戶提供從我們參與的經銷商庫存中購買約 200 萬輛汽車的能力，結束了這一年。

Our market share of Zelle payments continued to increase this year as well.

今年我們的 Zelle 支付市佔率也持續增加。

We now have 9.7 million Zelle users, and they sent and received 300 million transfers this year, totaling over $78 billion.

我們現在有 970 萬 Zelle 用戶，他們今年發送和接收了 3 億筆轉賬，總額超過 780 億美元。

Erica surpassed 10 million total users and completed nearly 100 million requests since its launch with 38% penetration of active BAC mobile users.

自推出以來，Erica 的用戶總數已超過 1,000 萬，完成了近 1 億個請求，活躍 BAC 行動用戶的滲透率為 38%。

27% of total deposits are now coming from mobile and over 50% of our clients have gone completely paperless, enhancing our efficiency and their experience.

現在，總存款的 27% 來自行動設備，超過 50% 的客戶已完全實現無紙化，從而提高了我們的效率和客戶體驗。

And customers increased their use of our mobile banking app to make appointments with 2.3 million digital appointments scheduled in 2019, up 19% year-over-year.

客戶更多地使用我們的手機銀行應用程式進行預約，2019 年安排了 230 萬次數位預約，較去年同期成長 19%。

Our efforts to move customers past enrollment to engagement and digital capabilities are stronger than ever and, we believe, industry-leading.

我們為讓客戶從註冊轉向參與和數位化能力而付出的努力比以往任何時候都更加強大，我們相信，這也是行業領先的。

Turning to Global Wealth & Investment Management on Slide 18.

轉向投影片 18 上的全球財富與投資管理。

Strong results were led by growth across AUM, loans and deposits as well as good market conditions in the quarter but also reflected the headwinds of lower interest rates.

強勁的業績得益於本季資產管理規模、貸款和存款的成長以及良好的市場狀況，但也反映出利率下降的不利因素。

Record-level client balances topped $3 trillion, and our full year pretax margin was 29%.

客戶餘額創歷史新高，突破 3 兆美元，全年稅前利潤率為 29%。

With $256 billion in deposits, this segment would rank standalone as the seventh or eighth largest bank in the U.S. So when rates fall, GWIM feels it, but much of the impact of falling rates was offset by advisories fees generated from our industry-leading wealth management platform.

該部門擁有2560 億美元的存款，將獨立成為美國第七或第八大銀行。因此，當利率下降時，GWIM 會感覺到，但利率下降的大部分影響被我們行業領先的財富產生的諮詢費所抵銷管理平台。

Net income was just over $1 billion, down 4% from Q4 '18, reflecting lower interest rates and the absence of a prior year gain from the sale of a noncore asset, which also impacted the revenue comparisons.

淨利潤略高於 10 億美元，比 18 年第 4 季下降 4%，反映出較低的利率以及去年出售非核心資產沒有帶來的收益，這也影響了收入比較。

Excluding the prior year gain, revenue was flat and earnings grew 3%.

排除上一年度的收益，營收持平，獲利成長 3%。

Asset management fees grew 5% year-over-year due to higher market valuations and the fees from AUM flows, which more than offset general pricing pressures and lower transactional revenue.

由於市場估值上升和資產管理規模流量費用增加，資產管理費用年增 5%，足以抵銷整體定價壓力和交易收入下降。

Expenses decreased slightly as investments in sales professionals, technology and our brand were more than offset by lower intangible amortization and deposit insurance costs.

費用略有下降，因為對銷售專業人員、技術和品牌的投資被無形攤銷和存款保險成本的降低所抵消。

Digital engagement with affluent clients continued to increase importance as 64% of Merrill clients are actively using our mobile or online platforms, and that statistic increased to more than 75% for our private bank clients.

與富裕客戶的數位互動持續變得越來越重要，因為64% 的美林客戶正在積極使用我們的行動或線上平台，而對於我們的私人銀行客戶來說，這一統計數據增加到75% 以上。

Moving to Slide 19.

轉到投影片 19。

GWIM activity reflects the confidence clients place in Bank of America and its advisers at both Merrill and the private bank.

GWIM 活動反映了客戶對美國銀行及其在美林和私人銀行的顧問的信心。

As Brian mentioned, household growth has been strong as Merrill added more than 40,000 net new households this year, and we added 60% more private bank relationships in 2019 than we did in 2018.

正如布萊恩所提到的，家庭成長強勁，美林今年淨新增超過 4 萬個家庭，而且 2019 年我們增加的私人銀行關係比 2018 年增加了 60%。

On the bottom right, note the $427 billion increase in client balances in Q4 '18.

請注意右下角，2018 年第 4 季客戶餘額增加了 4,270 億美元。

$383 billion of that increase reflected strong market conditions increasing the value of assets.

其中 3,830 億美元的成長反映了強勁的市場狀況增加了資產價值。

$44 billion of the increase is from client flows.

其中 440 億美元的成長來自客戶流量。

AUM flows accounted for $25 billion while brokerage flows contributed $6 billion.

資產管理規模流量為 250 億美元，經紀業務流量為 60 億美元。

Bank product flows were driven by loans of $12 billion, which doubled from 2018.

銀行產品流由 120 億美元貸款推動，較 2018 年翻了一番。

And deposit flows were modestly negative as clients shifted cash back into investments during the year following the 4Q '18 equity market declines.

18 年第 4 季股市下跌後，隨著顧客在一年內將現金轉回投資，存款流量出現小幅負值。

Average deposits rose 3%.

平均存款成長3%。

Turning to Global Banking on Slide 20.

轉向幻燈片 20 上的全球銀行業。

The business earned $2 billion and generated 20% return on allocated capital in the quarter.

該業務本季獲利 20 億美元，分配資本回報率為 20%。

An 8% decline in net income was driven by lower NII and higher investment costs, which outpaced the improvement from investment banking income and leasing-related gains.

淨利潤下降8%是由於NII下降和投資成本上升，超過了投資銀行收入和租賃相關收益的改善。

Continued strong deposit and loan growth reflects the benefit of adding hundreds of bankers over the past few years, increasing our client coverage as well as continued advancement in how we deliver our loan product and treasury services.

持續強勁的存款和貸款成長反映出過去幾年增加了數百名銀行家、擴大我們的客戶覆蓋範圍以及我們提供貸款產品和財務服務方式的持續進步所帶來的好處。

These investments will continue to benefit the franchise for many years to come as new bankers deepen existing relationships and add new ones.

隨著新銀行家深化現有關係並增加新關係，這些投資將在未來許多年繼續使特許經營權受益。

Looking at trends on Slide 21 and comparing to Q4 last year.

查看投影片 21 上的趨勢並與去年第四季進行比較。

Throughout the year, we continue to add investment bankers both in the U.S. and internationally with a focus on expanding our client coverage.

在這一年中，我們繼續在美國和國際上增加投資銀行家，重點是擴大我們的客戶覆蓋範圍。

This benefited NII fees, with Q4 fees of nearly $1.5 billion, up 9% year-over-year.

這有利於 NII 費用，第四季費用接近 15 億美元，年增 9%。

Despite -- excuse me, double-digit increases in both debt and equity underwriting fees led the year-over-year improvement.

儘管——請原諒，債務和股票承銷費用的兩位數增長帶動了同比的改善。

Bank of America was involved in 7 of the top 10 debt deals and 6 of the top 10 equity deals in the quarter.

美國銀行參與了本季十大債務交易中的 7 項和十大股票交易中的 6 項。

Based upon Dealogic data, this performance drove a 50 basis point improvement in market share for the full year.

根據 Dealogic 數據，這項業績推動全年市佔率提高了 50 個基點。

Turning to Slide 22.

轉向投影片 22。

One of the reasons for the growth in deposits in Global Banking has been our consistent investment over multiple years in digital capabilities and transaction services.

全球銀行業存款成長的原因之一是我們多年來對數位能力和交易服務的持續投資。

Note the growth in mobile and digital uses at the top of the page and our focus on solutions for clients on the bottom of the page.

請注意頁面頂部的行動和數位使用的成長以及頁面底部我們對客戶解決方案的關注。

Switching to Global Markets on Slide 23.

在投影片 23 上切換到全球市場。

As I usually do, I will talk about results excluding DVA.

像往常一樣，我將討論不包括 DVA 的結果。

Global Markets produced $639 million of earnings.

全球市場產生了 6.39 億美元的收益。

Year-over-year, revenue was up 10% from both higher sales and trading results and improved investment banking fees.

由於銷售和交易業績的提高以及投資銀行費用的提高，收入同比增長了 10%。

Expenses were up a more modest 2% year-over-year.

費用年增幅較為溫和，為 2%。

Within revenue, sales and trading improved 13% year-over-year driven by fixed income, currency and commodities with more a risk on environment when compared to Q4 last year.

在收入方面，受固定收益、貨幣和大宗商品的推動，銷售和交易年增 13%，與去年第四季相比，環境風險更大。

FICC was up 25% from Q4 14 while equities declined modestly.

FICC 較 2014 年第四季上漲 25%，而股市小幅下跌。

FICC revenue showed improved results across most products but was particularly strong in mortgage products.

大多數產品的 FICC 收入均有所改善，但抵押貸款產品的表現尤其強勁。

The muted performance in equities was driven by lower client activities and derivatives, which was partially offset by our financing business where we have focused some investments.

股票表現疲軟是由於客戶活動和衍生性商品減少，但我們重點投資的融資業務部分抵消了這一影響。

On Slide 24, you can see that our mix of sales and trading revenue remains weighted to domestic activity, where global fee pools are centered.

在投影片 24 上，您可以看到我們的銷售和交易收入組合仍然以國內活動為主，全球費用池集中在國內活動。

Within FICC, revenue mix remained weighted to our credit products.

在 FICC 內，收入組合仍以我們的信貸產品為主。

And importantly, please note, on the bottom left, at roughly $13 billion, the consistency of our sales and trading revenue over the past 6 years in the face of declining fee pools.

重要的是，請注意，左下角大約 130 億美元，是過去 6 年在費用池不斷下降的情況下我們的銷售和交易收入的一致性。

It is particularly noteworthy considering the risk reduction noted at the bottom right.

考慮到右下角指出的風險降低，這一點尤其值得注意。

This goes against the perception that these revenues are generally considered to be more variable.

這與人們普遍認為這些收入變化更大的看法背道而馳。

Finally, turning to Slide 25.

最後，轉向投影片 25。

We show All Other, which reported a profit of $262 million.

我們展示了 All Other，其報告利潤為 2.62 億美元。

Comparing against Q3 '19 is tough because that period included the $2.1 billion pretax impairment charge on our Bank of America Merchant Services joint venture.

與 19 年第三季相比，情況很艱難，因為該時期包括我們的美國銀行商業服務合資企業 21 億美元的稅前減損費用。

But there are 2 things worth noting as I close out.

但在我結束時，有兩件事值得注意。

First, other income at the total company level this quarter included tax-advantaged investment partnership losses that were about $200 million higher when you compare to Q3.

首先，本季公司整體層面的其他收入包括稅收優惠的投資合夥企業損失，與第三季相比，損失增加了約 2 億美元。

The benefits of this activity shows up in Global Banking -- in our Global Banking business and are produced by client activity related to tax-advantaged solar and wind investments.

這項活動的好處體現在全球銀行業務中——我們的全球銀行業務中，並且是由與稅收優惠的太陽能和風能投資相關的客戶活動產生的。

These investments generate good returns.

這些投資產生了良好的回報。

However, the partnership losses, which reduced noninterest income, and the tax benefit in our tax line from these investments are not always realized in the same quarter, depending upon the type of investment.

然而，合夥企業損失（減少非利息收入）以及這些投資帶來的稅收優惠並不總是在同一季度實現，具體取決於投資類型。

The second thing I want to mention is the effective tax rate in the quarter of approximately 14%.

我想提的第二件事是該季度的有效稅率約為14%。

It included the impact of higher tax credits from the increased tax-advantaged investments, and it also included roughly $300 million in discrete benefits from the resolution of several tax matters.

其中包括稅收優惠投資增加帶來的更高稅收抵免的影響，還包括解決多項稅務問題帶來的約 3 億美元的離散收益。

Absent the discrete benefits in the quarter, our Q4 '19 tax rate would have been roughly 18%, and absent any unusual items, this is roughly where we expect the ETR for full year 2020 to be.

如果沒有本季的離散收益，我們 19 年第 4 季的稅率將約為 18%，並且如果沒有任何異常項目，這大致是我們預計 2020 年全年 ETR 的水平。

So thanks.

那謝謝啦。

And with that, we'll open it up to Q&A.

接下來，我們將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question today from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

（操作員說明）今天我們將回答來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald 的第一個問題。

Paul, wanted to ask on the NII outlook.

Paul 想問 NII 的前景。

When you put together your -- your commentary about the quarters, year-over-year, does that imply flat to down a little bit maybe on the NII in terms of your outlook against flat rates?

當您將您對各季度的評論與去年同期相比時，這是否意味著您對統一利率的前景持平或下降一點？

Yes.

是的。

Year-over-year, modestly, I would say.

我想說，年復一年。

Down modestly?

謙虛地下來？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

And then how are you feeling -- I guess if we think about positive operating leverage for this year, you mentioned the stability in expenses while you continue to invest.

然後你感覺如何——我想如果我們考慮今年的積極營運槓桿，你提到了在繼續投資的同時支出的穩定性。

How are you feeling on fee income growth and when you wrap it all together, the prospects for positive operating leverage into 2020?

您對費用收入成長有何看法？綜合考慮，您對 2020 年積極營運槓桿的前景有何看法？

So obviously, we talked about in the prepared remarks the transition that we're going through in the rate environment.

顯然，我們在準備好的發言中討論了我們在利率環境中正在經歷的轉變。

I would just remind everybody we had 18 consecutive quarters of positive operating leverage, and admittedly, it's a little bit more difficult to achieve operating leverage given the decline in interest rates last year and the associated impact on NII.

我想提醒大家的是，我們已經連續 18 個季度實現正營運槓桿，而且不可否認，考慮到去年利率下降以及對 NII 的相關影響，實現營運槓桿有點困難。

As I said though, assuming a more stable rate environment, we would expect NII to return to growth in the second half of 2020 driven by loan and deposit growth.

正如我所說，假設利率環境更加穩定，我們預計NII將在貸款和存款成長的推動下在2020年下半年恢復成長。

And remember, NII is not directly linked to expenses the way other revenue is in, for example, investment banking, sales and trading, wealth management.

請記住，NII 並不像其他收入（例如投資銀行、銷售和交易、財富管理）那樣與支出直接相關。

We run and invest in the company for the long-term sustainability and for growth.

我們經營和投資公司是為了公司的長期永續發展和成長。

And by the way, these investments over many years laid the foundation for operating leverage.

順便說一句，這些多年來的投資為營運槓桿奠定了基礎。

So having said all that, we're not blind to changes in the operating environment, but we are also not managing rigidly to quarterly financial metrics.

話雖如此，我們並不是對營運環境的變化視而不見，但我們也沒有嚴格管理季度財務指標。

We're focused on the things that we can control like driving like client activity, deposits, loans investments and efficiency improvements through our focus on operational excellence.

我們專注於我們可以控制的事情，例如透過專注於卓越營運來推動客戶活動、存款、貸款投資和效率提高。

So if things change, we'll adjust, but currently, we feel our client activity and market share gains continue to support our investment plans in the near term.

因此，如果情況發生變化，我們將進行調整，但目前，我們認為我們的客戶活動和市場份額的成長繼續支持我們近期的投資計劃。

We'll take our next question from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

我們將接受 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 提出的下一個問題。

I have a follow-up question on your comments on the promo balances in cards and your pullback there.

我有一個關於您對卡中促銷餘額以及您的撤回的評論的後續問題。

And I'm curious if that is a function of pricing getting tougher there, terms getting tougher there?

我很好奇這是否是那裡的定價變得更加嚴格、條款變得更加嚴格的結果？

Or is that your just responsible thought process 11 years into a recovery?

或者說，這就是您在經濟復甦 11 年後的負責任的思考過程嗎？

I think it's more a reflection of responsible growth and how we run, how we're focused on the customer and how we're focused on total revenue and not necessarily NII or fees.

我認為這更反映了負責任的成長以及我們的營運方式、我們如何專注於客戶以及我們如何專注於總收入，而不一定是NII或費用。

When you look at card balances, they certainly reflect a couple of items that we talked about, and it certainly reflects our focus more on profitability.

當您查看卡片餘額時，它們肯定反映了我們討論過的幾個項目，並且它肯定反映了我們更多地關注盈利能力。

First, we've been reevaluating some relationship prospects who are just looking to gain rewards or take a short term -- take short-term advantage of promo balances.

首先，我們一直在重新評估一些只想獲得獎勵或短期利用促銷餘額的潛在客戶。

So clearly, that's affected balances a little bit.

很明顯，這對平衡產生了一點影響。

Also, with less promo balances, the percentage of the portfolio paying off these much has risen a bit.

此外，由於促銷餘額減少，投資組合中償還這些巨額資金的百分比有所上升。

I think what you see though, if you look at our risk adjusted margin, that's up 25 basis points year-over-year to 8.7%.

我認為，如果你看看我們的風險調整利潤率，你會發現，比去年同期成長了 25 個基點，達到 8.7%。

If you adjust out the 4Q gains we had last year, and we continue to have more than 1 million cards each month.

如果你調整掉我們去年第四季的收益，我們每個月的卡片數量仍然超過 100 萬張。

Again, with a focus on profitability of new accounts.

再次強調新客戶的獲利能力。

So I think that line's going to start to grow from here?

所以我認為這條線將從這裡開始成長？

I think, Glenn, just to be -- Paul's last point (inaudible) production of new customers taking the card product from us and the usage continues to grow.

我認為，格倫，保羅的最後一點（聽不清楚）是新客戶從我們這裡拿走了卡片產品，並且使用量持續增長。

So we had 1 million-plus new cardholders.

所以我們有超過 100 萬的新持卡人。

We still have a lot of room to go from a 2/3 type of penetration at customer base and then how many people use that as a primary card.

從客戶群的 2/3 滲透率到有多少人將其用作主要卡，我們還有很大的空間。

So we really focus a lot on that.

所以我們真的非常關注這一點。

And what we're focusing on that, generating new customers who are serving is not exactly the strategy.

我們關注的重點是產生正在服務的新客戶，這並不完全是我們的策略。

And so it's a mix of profitability, but also really sticking to that core holistic customer strategy.

因此，這是獲利能力的結合，但也真正堅持核心整體客戶策略。

Appreciate that.

感謝。

Just 1 more, maybe on GWIM.

還有 1 個，也許在 GWIM 上。

So market's up a lot and more people going fee-based offset lower rates, and you talked about that.

因此，市場上漲了很多，越來越多的人採用收費方式抵消了較低的費率，您也談到了這一點。

So we've been hanging in this 28% to 30% range, which is great.

所以我們一直保持在 28% 到 30% 的範圍內，這很好。

But the question I have is can -- as scale continues to build and all the investments that you've made there, can we see margins start to tick up a little bit above there?

但我的問題是，隨著規模的不斷擴大以及您在那裡進行的所有投資，我們能否看到利潤率開始略微上升？

I know we're constrained by payouts and things like that.

我知道我們受到支出之類的限制。

Just curious, bigger picture over the next couple of years.

只是好奇，未來幾年的更大前景。

Yes.

是的。

So think about it in 2 dimensions.

因此，請從二維角度考慮。

One, inside the Wealth Management business is a very large bank.

第一，財富管理業務內部是一家非常大的銀行。

So if rate's stable here from here, then the loan and deposit growth, which have been strong, we'll then pick up that, and that's very leveraged to the margin, contribute to the margin.

因此，如果利率從這裡開始保持穩定，那麼貸款和存款的成長一直很強勁，我們就會繼續成長，而這對利潤率的槓桿作用很大，會對利潤率做出貢獻。

That's 1 point.

那是1分。

So you're going through the same twist in that business with a 75 basis point drop in rates in the very late part of -- last few months of 2019.

因此，在 2019 年最後幾個月的最後幾個月，該業務也將經歷同樣的曲折，利率下降了 75 個基點。

That's no different than many other situations.

這與許多其他情況沒有什麼不同。

So that will mitigate and go forward.

因此，這將緩解並繼續發展。

If you think about the other side of the question, which is sort of, can you get it higher, you've got the basic thing, the way that the compensation system runs from a way of presentation is you've got 50% of the revenue.

如果你考慮問題的另一面，那就是，你能把它提高得更高嗎？你已經得到了基本的東西，薪酬體系從一種表述方式來看，你已經得到了 50% 的報酬。收入。

Round numbers goes into the compensation.

整數包含在補償中。

So you're basically making $0.30 on the other $0.50 in profit margin, which is a pretty strong margin.

因此，您基本上可以透過另外 0.50 美元的利潤率賺取 0.30 美元，這是一個相當高的利潤率。

So it has all the opportunities along the dimensions, which is a (inaudible) set of things that we've got to go after, which is you think about the Merrill Edge assets growing in the MEGI portfolio, which is over $4 billion and growing 30%, 50% a year type of things.

因此，它在各個方面都有所有的機會，這是我們必須追求的一系列（聽不清楚）事情，這就是你認為ME​​GI 投資組合中不斷增長的Merrill Edge 資產，該資產超過40 億美元，並且還在不斷增長。每年30%、50%之類的事情。

As they grow, and the products are available to Andy's to whole team of FAs, that provides additional efficiency.

隨著他們的成長，Andy 的整個 FA 團隊都可以使用這些產品，這提高了效率。

And then you think about the digitization of that customer base in both private bank and Merrill Lynch, which is the least penetrated of all the customer bases in terms of digital statements and things like that, we can drive the margins that way.

然後你會想到私人銀行和美林的客戶群的數位化，就數位報表等而言，這是所有客戶群中滲透率最低的，我們可以透過這種方式提高利潤。

Then the physical plant, we continue to increase the density of the physical plant with other physical plant in various cities and towns, consolidating offices and getting people in the common space that saves money.

然後是實體工廠，我們繼續增加實體工廠與各個城鎮的其他實體工廠的密度，整合辦公室並將人們安置在節省資金的公共空間中。

So there's a lot of way we can work on digitization, physical plant efficiency, adding more financial advisers to have more scale and contributing to overhead, which then generates more margin.

因此，我們可以採取許多方法來實現數位化、實體工廠效率、增加更多財務顧問以擴大規模並增加管理費用，從而產生更多利潤。

So it's -- you're working -- it's pretty good to make $0.60 -- 60% of your margin after comp and we're not changing the comp system, so -- but there's a lot of things forward, and I think we can continue to improve.

所以，你正在工作，能賺 0.60 美元就很好了，補償後利潤的 60%，我們不會改變補償系統，所以，但還有很多事情要做，我認為我們可以繼續改進。

It would be -- appear to be easier or if, in fact, rates stay stable and you drive loan growth, which is what our projection is, and if rates start rising again, it will look like (inaudible) in terms of margin.

這看起來會更容易，或者事實上，如果利率保持穩定並且你推動貸款成長，這就是我們的預測，如果利率再次開始上升，那麼在保證金方面看起來會像（聽不清楚）。

But we've been able to sustain it even in a falling rate environment.

但即使在利率下降的環境下，我們也能夠維持它。

Our next question comes from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So I wanted to ask a follow-up on fee income.

所以我想問一下後續的費用收入狀況。

So the NII resiliency has been quite impressive.

因此，NII 的彈性非常令人印象深刻。

Loan deposit account growth, as you noted, Paul and Brian continues to track very well.

正如您所指出的，保羅和布萊恩的貸款存款帳戶成長繼續保持良好勢頭。

The core fee growth was a bit softer this past year.

去年核心費用成長有點疲軟。

It declined modestly despite some of the strong market tailwinds.

儘管受到一些強勁的市場推動，該股仍小幅下跌。

I know, Brian, in the past, you haven't given explicit guidance on core fee growth expectations, but you did note that it showed traject in line with GDP.

我知道，布萊恩，您過去沒有對核心費用成長預期給出明確的指導，但您確實注意到它顯示出與 GDP 一致的軌跡。

And just given some of the moderating U.S. and global GDP growth expectations you cited earlier, just trying to think about how we should be modeling or forecasting fee income expectations in the coming years?

考慮到您之前提到的美國和全球 GDP 成長預期放緩，我們應該如何建模或預測未來幾年的費用收入預期？

I think each category -- if you think about the broad categories where most of them come through, the strategy in the consumer business has been to reduce reliance over the last decade-plus on penalty fees and things like that.

我認為每個類別——如果你考慮大多數類別所經歷的廣泛類別，消費者業務的策略是在過去十多年減少對罰款和類似費用的依賴。

We kind of hit status quo on that.

我們在這方面有點維持現狀。

In other words, we brought it down significantly from Reg BI and all that stuff is kind of done.

換句話說，我們從 Reg BI 中大幅降低了它，所有這些事情都已經完成了。

The interchange in the consumer fee areas, the card income and stuff, that's through the system at this point.

消費費用領域的交換、卡片收入等，此時都是透過系統進行的。

The rewards impact that, but you get the benefit back in a preferred rewards system through the ability to have that stable margin.

獎勵會影響這一點，但您可以透過擁有穩定的利潤的能力，在首選獎勵系統中獲得收益。

So I think we should see those fees, which have gotten to a point where they ought to grow marginally.

所以我認為我們應該看到這些費用，它們已經達到了應該小幅成長的程度。

But remember, the part of the strategy is to invest in our client base, loyalty to our company and our products.

但請記住，該策略的一部分是投資於我們的客戶群、對我們公司和產品的忠誠度。

And so they'll be modest because of the NII growth.

因此，由於國家資訊基礎設施的成長，它們將保持適度。

Think about 8% growth in checking balances year-over-year in consumer.

想想消費者的支票餘額年增 8%。

That is helped -- driven by people consolidating a relationship with you, which you pay back through the reward system through their card usage.

這是有幫助的——由人們鞏固與你的關係所推動，你可以透過他們的卡片使用情況透過獎勵系統進行回報。

So it's always going to be that.

所以事情永遠都是這樣。

When you go to wealth management, you tell me what the market's going to do, and you'll see that will be heavily influenced there.

當你進入財富管理領域時，你告訴我市場將會發生什麼，你會發現這將會受到很大的影響。

That should grow faster.

那應該會成長得更快。

As you know, trading, as Paul said, isn't as volatile as people wanted to discuss it.

如你所知，正如保羅所說，交易並不像人們想要討論的那樣波動。

But on the other hand, there's compression on the fee side.

但另一方面，費用方面也受到壓縮。

So each line items has a different element.

因此每個行項目都有不同的元素。

Treasury services revenue is up, I think, at the high single digits, but the fee line piece of it's flattish, that's because people are paying us through balances.

我認為，國庫服務收入以高個位數成長，但費用線部分持平，這是因為人們透過餘額向我們付款。

So I think that -- Steven, a guy like you has been around banks for a long time.

所以我認為——史蒂文，像你這樣的人已經在銀行工作很久了。

The differentiation between types of revenue fee versus spread is becoming harder as the business models have morphed them together in just terms of total revenue.

由於商業模式已經將收入費用與利差類型一起轉變為總收入，因此區分收入類型與利差類型變得越來越困難。

So we ought to go revenue slightly faster than the economy and have the expenses grow below that by a couple hundred basis points, and we've been able to do that.

因此，我們的收入成長速度應該略快於經濟成長速度，並使支出成長速度低於經濟成長幾百個基點，我們已經做到了這一點。

And as this twist in rates ends this quarter, you'll see us get back on that track as we move through 2020.

隨著利率的這種變化在本季結束，您將看到我們在 2020 年回到原來的軌道。

And maybe just a follow-up for you, Paul.

保羅，也許這只是你的後續行動。

You've been retaining a substantial percentage of mortgage loans on balance sheet.

您一直在資產負債表上保留很大比例的抵押貸款。

In lieu of selling those loans, you're deploying that excess liquidity into MBS.

您可以將多餘的流動性投入MBS，而不是出售這些貸款。

And I'm just wondering, as we prepare for CECL, does that inform your appetite or your willingness to continue down the same path?

我只是想知道，當我們為 CECL 做準備時，這是否表明您有興趣或願意繼續走同樣的道路？

And just separately, just given the strength of your credit position and a relatively clean balance sheet.

單獨考慮，考慮到您的信用狀況的實力和相對乾淨的資產負債表。

I was sort of hoping you guys could be CECL pioneers and maybe be the first bank to provide some more concrete guidance in terms of day 2 provision impacts or expectations?

我有點希望你們能夠成為 CECL 的先驅，也許成為第一家就第二天撥備影響或預期提供更具體指導的銀行？

Well, on your first point, we are originating mortgages and putting 94% of them, I think, this quarter on the balance sheet to continue the trend that we've been doing for many, many quarters now.

好吧，關於您的第一點，我認為本季度我們正在發放抵押貸款並將其中 94% 納入資產負債表，以延續我們許多季度以來一直在做的趨勢。

We'll see how that develops over the long term, but for now, that's our plan.

我們將看看長期發展如何，但就目前而言，這就是我們的計劃。

Clearly, we consider the effect on liquidity.

顯然，我們考慮了對流動性的影響。

We consider the effect on capital balancing, returning capital with growing the balance sheet.

我們考慮隨著資產負債表的成長對資本平衡、資本返還的影響。

Those loans don't really have a high amount of CECL impact.

這些貸款對 CECL 的影響並不大。

So -- but I'm not saying we're going to never change what we're doing there.

所以，但我並不是說我們永遠不會改變我們在那裡所做的事情。

In terms of CECL, I think we've given you the guidance that we're comfortable with.

就 CECL 而言，我認為我們已經為您提供了我們滿意的指導。

We would expect provision to be a little higher than net charge-offs in 2020.

我們預計 2020 年撥備將略高於淨沖銷。

And due to CECL, we've been running -- when you back everything out, we've been running at net charge-offs at approximately $1 billion a quarter.

由於 CECL，我們一直在運行 - 當你收回所有資金時，我們一直在以每季度約 10 億美元的淨沖銷運行。

We don't see that changing much in the future.

我們認為未來這種情況不會有太大變化。

And when you just factor CECL into that, it means that our provision's going to have to be a little bit higher than net charge offs.

當您將 CECL 納入其中時，這意味著我們的準備金必須比淨沖銷額略高一些。

You always have to remember that the -- not on the last part, but on the first part, at the end of the day, the reason why we have securities and mortgage-backed securities and treasuries is simple: When you generate $60 billion in deposit growth and your loan balances grow by $10 billion or whatever, $10 billion or $20 billion, the other half has to go to be invested somewhere and you're raising this money and all-in cost in the 40 basis points of deposit pricing across the whole board, and a lot of it's coming noninterest, you're not going to turn down that good customer activity.

你總是必須記住，不是在最後一部分，而是在第一部分，歸根結底，我們擁有證券、抵押貸款支持證券和國債的原因很簡單：當你創造 600 億美元存款增長，你的貸款餘額增長100億美元或其他，100 億美元或200 億美元，另一半必須投資到某個地方，你要在存款定價40 個基點的基礎上籌集這筆資金和總成本整個董事會，其中很多都是不感興趣的，你不會拒絕良好的客戶活動。

And we don't take credit risk in that part of the portfolio because we take enough credit risk around the rest of the company.

我們不會在投資組合的這一部分中承擔信用風險，因為我們對公司的其他部分承擔了足夠的信用風險。

And so the strategy on the investment side, mortgage-backed had put with treasuries, and think of that as just excess liquidity.

因此，抵押貸款支持的投資策略已與國債掛鉤，並將其視為流動性過剩。

On mortgages, paul told you that we've been putting on the balance sheet because they're better yielding than mortgage-backed securities.

關於抵押貸款，保羅告訴你，我們一直在資產負債表上，因為它們的收益率比抵押貸款支持證券更好。

And frankly, our credit risk is better than the mortgage-backed securities' availability, so why would we pay somebody else for taking that risk?

坦白說，我們的信用風險比抵押貸款支持證券的可用性要好，那麼為什麼我們要付錢給其他人承擔這種風險呢？

Fair enough.

很公平。

And I appreciate you guys taking the day 2 plunge as well.

我也很感謝你們在第二天的投入。

We'll take our next question from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利的貝特西·格拉塞克 (Betsy Graseck) 提出的下一個問題。

Brian, 10 years of excellent management here driving the bus on improving operating leverage, especially over the past 3, 4 years.

Brian，十年來的卓越管理推動了營運槓桿的提高，特別是在過去的三、四年。

Can you give us a sense as to how you see the rate of change go from here?

您能否告訴我們您認為未來的變化率如何？

Because we've had, obviously significant improvement in the consumer side.

因為我們在消費者方面已經有了明顯的顯著改善。

And the question I get from people is, is it over?

我從人們那裡得到的問題是，一切都結束了嗎？

And by the way, how do you generate positive operating leverage in global banks and global markets given the SKU to producers?

順便問一下，考慮到生產商的 SKU，您如何在全球銀行和全球市場中產生積極的營運槓桿？

And is there that much opportunity in the back office side?

後台部門有那麼多機會嗎？

So maybe you could hit on those, that'd be helpful.

所以也許你可以找到這些，這會很有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

So let me paraphrase a little bit, but it's a delectation to be able to run this company with all the power and have the honor of doing it for decades.

因此，讓我解釋一下，能夠以全部權力經營這家公司並有幸這樣做數十年，我感到很高興。

So we just passed a decade with the team, and they've done a great job.

我們剛剛與團隊一起度過了十年，他們做得非常出色。

But what you pointed out is they've done a great job of putting a position.

但你指出的是他們在定位方面做得很好。

So if you look at the operating efficiency of the consumer business or the wealth management business or the banking business, which we show separate from the markets business, you can see these are 38%, 40% efficiency ratios here, 45% here.

因此，如果你看看我們與市場業務分開展示的消費者業務、財富管理業務或銀行業務的營運效率，你可以看到這裡的效率比是 38%、40%，這裡是 45%。

It's how can you improve.

這就是你如何改進。

And Betsy, what I'd say is we just don't know how far this digitization of the actual processes and work goes in the company.

貝特西，我想說的是，我們只是不知道公司實際流程和工作的數位化進展到什麼程度。

And we just keep coming up.

我們不斷湧現。

We have 6,000 simplified improved ideas over the last few years we've implemented -- they continue to produce great savings.

在過去的幾年裡，我們實施了 6,000 個簡化的改進想法 - 它們繼續帶來巨大的節省。

And so we just don't see an end to that.

所以我們看不到這種情況的結束。

And so leave aside that the economy is growing at sub-2% level predicted for 20, leave aside that the rate environment's slow.

因此，暫且不考慮 20 世紀經濟成長將低於 2% 的預測，也不考慮利率環境緩慢。

We've been able to push forward the activities that didn't -- can produce more efficiency.

我們已經能夠推進那些原本無法產生更高效率的活動。

And we think that's -- there's a lot ahead of us.

我們認為，我們還有很多事情要做。

And so I'd like to -- we'd say a nice start to our team saying, thanks for all the hard work you've done.

因此，我想對我們的團隊說一個好的開始，感謝你們所做的所有辛勤工作。

But also, we're only getting started here.

而且，我們才剛開始。

And if you start thinking about we just passed the number of checking accounts that we had in 2007 in this company this quarter.

如果您開始思考，本季我們剛剛超過了 2007 年該公司的支票帳戶數量。

And so we ran off all the non-primary accounts, but on the primary accounts, and now the average balance is 7,000.

所以我們把所有非主要帳戶都去掉了，只保留了主要帳戶，現在平均餘額是 7,000。

If you think about the cost of deposits in consumer, I think it went down by 4 basis points year-over-year, something like that.

如果你考慮消費者的存款成本，我認為它比去年同期下降了 4 個基點，類似的情況。

So they're just -- it's a grind, and it's a lot of hard work.

所以他們只是──這是一項艱辛的工作，而且是很多艱苦的工作。

But incremental efficiency that we can get at this scale by these investments and by the digitization and the further taking out activity, which costs more.

但是，透過這些投資、數位化和進一步的取出活動，我們可以在這種規模上獲得增量效率，而這些活動的成本更高。

Another example is checks written since Zelle became really pushed out there about 2 years ago has started dropping 10% per year.

另一個例子是，自從 Zelle 大約 2 年前真正被推出以來，開出的支票開始每年下降 10%。

So 5 years ago, we had almost 1 billion checks written by consumers.

5 年前，我們收到了近 10 億張消費者開出的支票。

Now, we're down to $600 million.

現在，我們的資金減少到了 6 億美元。

Each 1 of those checks is a piece of paper that requires processing time.

每一張支票都是一張紙，需要處理時間。

And you're seeing that drop by 10% a year.

你會發現這個數字每年下降 10%。

Is that going to change overnight when they're gone?

當他們離開後，情況會在一夜之間改變嗎？

Absolutely not.

絕對不。

But on the other hand, it's constant positive operating pressure benefit for us.

但另一方面，持續的正向營運壓力對我們有利。

So look for us to improve it across the board.

因此，期待我們全面改進它。

Your colleague earlier asked about the wealth management business.

剛才你的同事問到了財富管理業務的狀況。

We think we have upside there.

我們認為我們有上升的空間。

Andy and Katy and the teams are working on it.

安迪和凱蒂以及團隊正在努力解決這個問題。

There's a lot of process simplification that we've worked on hard.

我們努力簡化了很多流程。

There's a lot ahead of us.

我們還有很多事情要做。

And then you get the markets business, the electronification effect will make it more and more efficient over time, like we've seen in equities.

然後你就得到了市場業務，隨著時間的推移，電子化效應將使其變得越來越高效，就像我們在股票中看到的那樣。

As you know though, that's a market price business, so you're always fighting the revenue changes at the same time.

但正如您所知，這是一項市場價格業務，因此您總是同時應對收入變化。

In fact, if you look at most of us from 5 -- 4, 5 years ago, we actually had the same amount of trading profits we have then.

事實上，如果你看看我們大多數人 5、4、5 年前的情況，我們實際上擁有與當時相同數量的交易利潤。

We just turned it into this quarter, $600 million of profit, generally, $1 billion of profit when it's going a little bit better in the earlier quarters and the activity is higher.

我們剛剛將其轉變成本季度 6 億美元的利潤，一般來說，當前幾季情況稍好且活動較高時，我們將獲得 10 億美元的利潤。

That's a good business.

這是一門好生意。

It's just you're fighting both sides of the equation.

只是你在與等式的兩邊作鬥爭。

So look for us to improve everything.

所以期待我們來改善一切。

There's room to improve.

還有改進的空間。

Tremendous scale advantages, the new markets opening up provide extra lift, and it's our job to do it and the team's excited to.

巨大的規模優勢、開放的新市場提供了額外的推動力，這是我們的工作，我們的團隊對此感到興奮。

Okay, good.

好的。

Good forward look there.

那裡的前景很好。

Paul, on the longer term, Paul, maybe I could just be a little bit nearer term with a question for you.

保羅，從長遠來看，保羅，也許我可以更近一點地問你一個問題。

I think you mentioned a couple of times the NII expectation for 2020 being down modestly from 2019, full year, full year.

我想您曾多次提到 2020 年的 NII 預期比 2019 年全年略有下降。

But then you talked a little bit about a better second half than first half.

但後來你談到了下半場比上半場更好。

And maybe you could give us a little bit more detail on the granularity, why you expect that to be the case.

也許您可以向我們提供更多有關粒度的詳細信息，以及為什麼您希望出現這種情況。

I assume it's with the forward curve and flattish rates.

我認為這是遠期曲線和平坦利率的結果。

But -- and then you gave some color earlier on.

但是——然後你早些時候給了一些顏色。

But maybe give a little sense more, like what's behind that conviction level that year-on-year, you get some improvement in the back half?

但也許更有意義一些，例如與去年同期相比，你在後半段取得了一些進步的信念水平背後是什麼？

Well, I think it's -- look, it's about loan and deposit growth, and it's about deposit pricing discipline.

嗯，我認為這與貸款和存款的成長有關，也與存款定價紀律有關。

On deposit pricing, we plan some modest reductions in deposit pricing, assuming no further cuts.

在存款定價方面，假設不再進一步下調，我們計劃適度下調存款定價。

As we continue to bring deposit pricing to an appropriate level given the 3 (inaudible) -- the 3 cuts that we've experienced.

鑑於我們經歷了 3 次（聽不清楚）——我們經歷了 3 次降息，我們繼續將存款定價提高到適當水平。

If the forward curve materializes and we get another short end cut, we expect deposit rate paid for the industry and for us to decline even further as higher pass-through products in wealth management, global banking react relatively quickly to any rate cuts.

如果遠期曲線實現，我們再次短期下調，我們預計該行業和我們的存款利率將進一步下降，因為財富管理領域的傳遞產品更高，全球銀行業對任何降息反應相對較快。

So it's about the confidence we have in how we price our products and the confidence we have in growing deposits and growing loans.

因此，這關係到我們對產品定價的信心，以及我們對存款和貸款成長的信心。

The guidance is more about -- we have an extra -- 1 less day in Q1 we've got to deal with.

該指導更多的是——我們在第一季需要處理的時間多了——少了一天。

We have the second quarter.

我們還有第二季。

Normal activity that we see in equities, which, again, that's a plus.

我們在股票中看到的正常活動，這又是一個優點。

That just shows up in noninterest income instead of interest income.

這僅體現在非利息收入而非利息收入中。

And by the time you get to the third quarter, we would expect, assuming the current sort of economic environment, we would expect our loan and deposit growth, the lack of that seasonality, the deposit pricing to have an effect, and we'll start growing again.

到第三季時，我們預計，假設當前的經濟環境，我們預計我們的貸款和存款成長，缺乏季節性，存款定價會產生影響，我們將再次開始成長。

Just to add to that.

只是補充一下。

Your question and John's question go the same direction, which is you've got this quarter in the first couple of quarters because (inaudible), Paul just described it, you have to push through.

你的問題和約翰的問題是同一個方向，即你在前幾個季度中得到了這個季度，因為（聽不清楚），保羅剛剛描述了它，你必須堅持到底。

But what we see is getting back on as we move into the middle of 2020, we're back on that basic operating leverage through NII stability to growth and expense flatness.

但我們看到的是，隨著進入 2020 年中期，我們將透過 NII 穩定成長和費用平穩，恢復基本營運槓桿。

So it's -- but it just -- it takes a little while to get underneath the 75 basis point rate cut in 4 months.

因此，需要一段時間才能在 4 個月內降息 75 個基點。

Our next question comes from Jim Mitchell with Buckingham Research.

我們的下一個問題來自白金漢研究中心的吉姆·米切爾。

Maybe I could just follow-up on that last question in a different way.

也許我可以用不同的方式跟進最後一個問題。

Is your expectation that the net interest margin should start to stabilize in the back half of the year, is that what gives you the confidence in the NII growth?

您是否預計下半年淨利差將開始穩定，這是否給了您對NII成長的信心？

Or is it really -- do we still should expect maybe a grind down of NIMS, but the balance sheet growth starts to take over?

或者，我們是否仍應該預期 NIMS 可能會被削弱，但資產負債表的成長開始接手？

How do we think about when in the current rate environment, that sort of net interest margin, assuming mix is unchanged.

在目前的利率環境下，假設組合不變，我們如何考慮這種淨利差。

Obviously, it's a big assumption, but do we assume that NIM starts to stabilize in the second half of this year?

顯然，這是一個很大的假設，但我們是否假設淨利差在今年下半年開始穩定下來？

I think that's what -- you've correctly summarized succinctly what we said.

我認為這就是——你正確地概括了我們所說的內容。

Okay.

好的。

So maybe I get another question.

所以也許我還有另一個問題。

So just on the deposit growth...

所以就存款成長而言......

We'll reward you a bonus question for that one.

我們將獎勵您一個關於該問題的獎勵問題。

Just on the deposit growth, the industry, we've seen some acceleration in 4Q.

就存款成長而言，我們在第四季度看到了該行業的一些加速。

We have lower short-term rates.

我們的短期利率較低。

We have the Fed balance sheet expansion.

我們有聯準會的資產負債表擴張。

There tends to be some seasonality in 4Q.

第四季往往存在一些季節性。

How do we -- do you think this acceleration can continue into at least the first half of this year.

我們如何—您認為這種加速至少可以持續到今年上半年嗎？

I guess, how do you think about the deposit growth?

我想，您如何看待存款成長？

And if there -- if we could see continued sort of above mid single-digit growth.

如果有的話——如果我們能看到持續高於中個位數的成長。

Yes.

是的。

I think if you look at Page 9, when you have great movement due to the types of things that reestablish and reserve levels by the -- at the Federal Reserve, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, that's going to affect the lower -- our markets business in the lower right-hand in a banking, stuff like that.

我認為，如果你看看第 9 頁，當你看到由於美聯儲等機構重建和儲備水平的變化而發生巨大變動時，這將影響較低的 - - 我們的市場業務位於銀行的右下角，諸如此類。

But it really doesn't have that much of an impact in the bank -- the wealth management and the consumer banking area, and that's really what drives the value.

但它實際上對銀行——財富管理和消費者銀行領域——沒有那麼大的影響，而這才是真正推動價值的因素。

So for the $700-odd billion in the consumer business, which grew checking at 8% year-over-year, and that's fairly consistent with what they've been doing.

因此，對於價值 700 多億美元的消費者業務來說，該業務同比增長 8%，這與他們一直在做的事情相當一致。

You remember that's 11 basis points all-in, including the interest bearing, part of which also grew year-over-year.

你記得總共有 11 個基點，包括利息，其中一部分也逐年成長。

So that $700 million a year in total interest expense for $700 billion of deposits.

因此，每年 7,000 億美元的存款利息支出為 7 億美元。

That's what drives the economics.

這就是經濟的驅動力。

And then wealth management and Global Banking also, but the -- and so that doesn't really affect it by all the sort of broad macroeconomic variables.

然後是財富管理和全球銀行業，但是——所以這並沒有真正受到所有廣泛的宏觀經濟變數的影響。

That's just us doing a great job with consumers with great customer satisfaction, great product capabilities, great high-touch, high-tech, and then generating more and more checking accounts, while the average balance for checking account is $7,000 plus and growing.

這只是我們在消費者方面做得很好，客戶滿意度很高，產品功能強大，高接觸性，高科技，然後產生越來越多的支票帳戶，而支票帳戶的平均餘額超過7,000 美元，並且還在不斷成長。

And that's what's going to drive it.

這就是推動它的因素。

So I'd say you're absolutely right.

所以我想說你是完全正確的。

There can be momentary things that will enhance deposit growth in some of the pure institutional businesses.

一些純粹的機構業務可能會出現一些短暫的事情，從而促進存款成長。

But it doesn't make much difference to the general U.S. consumer.

但這對美國一般消費者來說並沒有太大差別。

Our next question comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧。

A simple question is, what is the dollar amount of tech spending and investment spending in 2019, and how does that compare to last year and this coming one?

一個簡單的問題是，2019 年科技支出和投資支出的金額是多少？與去年和今年相比如何？

And the backdrop for that question is, the efficiency -- we've gotten a lot of questions on efficiency on this call, and it was worse in the fourth quarter.

這個問題的背景是效率——我們在這次電話會議上收到了很多關於效率的問題，第四季的情況更糟。

And your 58% efficiency for the year is not where some other banks are targeting, like 55%.

你們今年 58% 的效率並不是其他一些銀行的目標，例如 55%。

Now we know that you're spending a lot of money.

現在我們知道你花了很多錢。

We can see Slide 3. You've pointed out that the spending is paying off.

我們可以看到投影片 3。您已經指出支出正在得到回報。

So if you could just put a wrapper around the spending and put a number to it, then we, as analysts, can figure out, okay, a more core efficiency level, if you would.

因此，如果你可以對支出進行包裝並給出一個數字，那麼我們作為分析師就可以找出一個更核心的效率水平，如果你願意的話。

So 1 of the things that just in our efficiency ratio compared to other people were 58% for the year.

因此，我們與其他人相比，今年的效率是 58%。

But remember that we have a lot more wealth management at 30% -- 28%, 29% profit, pretax margin, i.e., 71% efficiency ratio than anybody else does.

但請記住，我們的財富管理水準比其他任何人都高得多，稅前利潤率為 30%、28%、29%，即 71%。

So that changes that answer relative to some of our core banking peers.

因此，相對於我們的一些核心銀行同行來說，這改變了答案。

It's just a bigger, bigger number because we have the biggest business with $3 trillion, assets making $1 billion a quarter after tax at the best margins, but it's just the sheer math.

這是一個越來越大的數字，因為我們擁有最大的業務，價值 3 兆美元，資產每季稅後利潤達 10 億美元，利潤率最高，但這只是純粹的數學數字。

So when you look at it by business unit by business unit, our efficiency is the top in the class, it's just our mix is different.

所以如果你照業務部門來看的話，我們的效率是同類中最好的，只是我們的組合不同而已。

So I'll let you figure that out, Mike.

所以我會讓你弄清楚這一點，麥克。

But back to your tech spend, we spent $3 billion -- $3.2 billion or $3 billion in '18, the same in '19.

但回到你的技術支出，我們在 18 年花了 30 億美元、32 億美元或 30 億美元，19 年也是如此。

We have it scheduled to be the same this year.

我們計劃今年也是如此。

It's just this constant level of spending.

這就是持續的支出水準。

Now it's different projects, obviously, every year.

現在顯然每年都有不同的項目。

That's pure technology initiatives.

這是純粹的技術舉措。

You put that on top of the backbone and everything, and the number people could talk about would be higher.

你把它放在主幹和所有東西之上，人們可以談論的數量就會更高。

But that is just to drive new products and capabilities through the system, and we aren't changing that because that's what's driving that ability to keep expenses flat.

但這只是為了透過系統推動新產品和功能，我們不會改變這一點，因為這就是推動支出穩定的能力的原因。

If you look across the chart Paul showed you, when you see '17, '18 and '19, and the expenses per quarter running [$13.1B, $13.3B] (corrected by company after the call), et cetera, think about how much we've done in there in terms of hundreds of new branches, thousands -- 2,000 -- 1,300 or so complete redos, new buildings for our teammates and wealth management, et cetera, et cetera.

如果您查看Paul 向您展示的圖表，當您看到“17”、“18”和“19”以及每季度運行的費用[$13.1B、$13.3B]（在電話會議後由公司更正）等時，請考慮如何我們在那裡做了很多工作，包括數百個新分支機構、數千個 - 2,000 - 1,300 個左右的完整重做、為我們的隊友和財富管理建立新建築等等。

And so that -- those are tremendous investment levels that are all in the run rate while we're chopping away, and that's coming from the operational excellence.

因此，這些巨大的投資水準都在我們削減開支時的運作率中，而這來自於卓越的營運。

So we're spending that much on technology, but the question isn't spend, Mike, it's are you getting the usage out of it?

所以我們在技術上花了那麼多錢，但問題不是花錢，麥克，而是你能利用它嗎？

And that's where you got to look at things like the usage of Zelle, which we're going at 80%, 90% a year.

這就是你必須關注 Zelle 的使用情況的地方，我們每年的使用率是 80%、90%。

The use of the cash pro mobile, which grew over 100% a year.

Cash Pro 手機的使用量每年增長超過 100%。

That usage, what I talked about, in checks written coming down.

我在寫下的支票中談到了這種用法。

When I talked about that we have 4,300 branches.

當我談到我們有 4,300 個分支機構時。

But in there, we've actually opened up in new markets for the last couple of years, 15 branch, 20 branches, et cetera, and continue to do that.

但在那裡，我們實際上在過去幾年中開闢了新市場，15 個分支機構、20 個分支機構等等，並將繼續這樣做。

So the efficiency of the rest of the markets funds that, even though your numbers of branches are relatively flattish, so they're coming down slightly.

因此，儘管您的分行數量相對持平，但其他市場的效率卻略有下降。

So it's a complex set of things.

所以這是一連串複雜的事情。

But hopefully, that gives you some color.

但希望這能給你一些色彩。

Yes.

是的。

I guess, I'll try 1 more time, since it's not in your tech number, like you are expanding to new markets, you are opening new branches, you are hiring new associates.

我想，我會再嘗試一次，因為它不在您的技術號碼中，就像您正在擴展到新市場，您正在開設新分支機構，您正在僱用新員工一樣。

How much does this investing increase the growth rate of expenses?

這項投資使費用成長率增加了多少？

It's $3.3 billion.

這是 33 億美元。

So it's in the run rate.

所以它在運行率中。

In last year, it will be like amount this year.

去年的金額，今年也差不多。

So could you take half of that out?

那你能把一半拿出來嗎？

You could, it'd just be not the right thing to do for the company.

你可以這樣做，但這對公司來說不是正確的做法。

But it's paid for by the other -- the cost takeout it supports or the mix and how the customer uses, which provides efficiency.

但它是由其他因素支付的——它支援的成本支出或組合以及客戶如何使用，這提供了效率。

So 50% -- more than 50% of our auto loans originated digitally.

我們 50% 的汽車貸款（超過 50%）是透過數位方式發放的。

Yes, I think we did see $4 billion to $5 billion of mortgage origination.

是的，我認為我們確實看到了 40 億至 50 億美元的抵押貸款發放。

So it's -- what we're reaping the benefits of my 3 years hence is the investments we made in '17 as you go into '20 are produced -- for example, digital auto did not exist.

所以，我們在這三年裡所獲得的好處是我們在 17 年所做的投資，當你進入 20 世紀時，這些投資已經生產出來了——例如，數位汽車還不存在。

And now, you're getting 58%.

現在，您獲得了 58%。

Just think how much more efficient that process is.

想想這個過程的效率有多高。

Digital mortgage -- yes?

數位抵押貸款——是嗎？

One more time.

再一次。

Like this tax spend to run the bank, changed the bank.

就像這個稅收花在經營銀行、改變銀行。

I assume you're spending more to change the bank today versus 3 or 4 years ago.

我認為與三、四年前相比，您今天在更換銀行方面花費更多。

That mix goes more towards change the bank.

這種組合更多地有助於改變銀行。

What are the figures and where do you think they're headed?

這些數字是多少？您認為它們的走向是什麼？

The $3 billion plus, obviously, with Brexit behind us, with a lot of the regulatory environment rules behind us in terms of implementing the CCAR and the capital rules and a lot of the modeling, and you're still spending money improving that data to make those models work.

顯然，隨著英國脫歐的過去，在實施 CCAR 和資本規則以及大量建模方面的許多監管環境規則也已經過去，您仍然需要花錢改進這些數據，以達到 30 億美元以上的目標。讓這些模型發揮作用。

That's gone.

那已經消失了。

The only thing that works against that is -- so yes.

唯一不利於這一點的是——所以是的。

If you thought about how much it's going to -- sort of new business initiatives, the mobile banking feature functionality, it's higher in 2020, it was in '19 than it was in '18, largely around this issue that you're running off some of these long-term projects, which is good.

如果你考慮過它會帶來多少——某種新的業務計劃、行動銀行功能，它在2020 年會更高，19 年的水平比18 年的水平要高，主要是圍繞你正在逃避的這個問題其中一些長期項目，這很好。

Our next question comes from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪。

Brian, can you remind us -- you touched on -- in some of your comments already about the number of checks that were processed 5 years ago versus today.

Brian，您能否提醒我們——您在一些評論中提到了 5 年前與今天處理的支票數量。

When you're moving from the paper to the digital, can you remind us what the cost savings are when you do that per unit?

當您從紙本材料轉向數位材料時，您能提醒我們每單位這樣做可以節省多少成本嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So that was going to be checks written by our customers, which is this good point because that stops the thing before it starts.

因此，這將是我們的客戶寫的支票，這是一個很好的點，因為這可以在事情開始之前停止它。

But basically, if you look at deposits, which I think is what you're referencing, Gerard, we are now more mobile than we are at the branches and have been for about 5 quarters.

但基本上，如果你看看存款，我認為這就是你所指的，傑拉德，我們現在比分行更具流動性，並且已經持續了大約 5 個季度。

And then the ATMs are still half.

然後ATM機還剩一半。

The mobile's a little over like 27% or something like that, and branches are the rest.

行動裝置的比例略高於 27% 左右，其餘的則是分公司。

So if you think about that, that is $5 in physical movement, $0.50 and $0.05.

因此，如果您考慮一下，實際移動費用為 5 美元、0.50 美元和 0.05 美元。

$0.50 at the ATM and $0.05 around numbers.

ATM 機上 0.50 美元，數字周圍 0.05 美元。

Great.

偉大的。

And then moving over to credit.

然後轉向信貸。

Can you guys give us any color -- I mean, credit's strong across the board for almost all the banks.

你們能給我們任何顏色嗎？我的意思是，幾乎所有銀行的信貸都很強。

And are you guys keeping an eye on any particular sectors within your portfolio?

你們是否正在關注投資組合中的任何特定行業？

And then as part of that question, we sensed from some of your peers that have reported that the corporates or commercial customers seem to be maybe a little more optimistic in the fourth quarter because of some of these trade issues.

然後，作為這個問題的一部分，我們從一些同行那裡了解到，由於其中一些貿易問題，企業或商業客戶在第四季度似乎更加樂觀。

If you could comment on that, if you're seeing that in your customer base as well?

如果您能對此發表評論，您是否也在您的客戶群中看到了這一點？

I'll take the second half, and I'll let Paul.

下半場我會主罰，我會讓保羅。

Yes, you are seeing, with the --- leave aside what happens day-to-day, but generally, the companies are seeing the resolutions emerge for some of these issues.

是的，你看到了——拋開日常發生的事情不談，但總的來說，公司正在看到針對其中一些問題的解決方案。

That makes -- a little bit more confidence.

這讓我們更有信心了。

In terms of their activities, we'll hopefully see that in the first half of this year, if nothing goes backwards.

就他們的活動而言，如果一切順利的話，我們預計將在今年上半年看到這一點。

The market being up, obviously, gives people a good feeling.

市場上漲顯然給人一種良好的感覺。

But one of the thing you have to think about is in the first part of '19, Gerard, you had your inventory decline recession, as people would call it.

但你必須考慮的一件事是，傑拉德，在 19 年上半年，你經歷了庫存下降衰退，正如人們所說的那樣。

That went through the system.

就這樣通過了系統。

So you've entered a new place, right?

那麼你已經進入了一個新的地方，對嗎？

So you come down, you hit a bottom, and then you start to grow off from there.

所以你下降了，你觸底了，然後你開始從那裡成長。

We're kind of in that transition phase.

我們正處於這個過渡階段。

So I think the combination of the external environment getting the deal today with China, obviously, is a resolution of 1 of the issues that was over people's minds.

因此，我認為今天與中國達成協議的外部環境的結合顯然解決了人們所關心的問題之一。

There are other USMCA.

還有其他 USMCA。

Everybody says it's going to be passed.

大家都說會通過。

I think if that got passed, it'd be very helpful to people.

我認為如果該法案獲得通過，對人們來說將會非常有幫助。

The fact that people have done what they needed to do, it was during the year '19, to change supply chains and think about it, that's disruptive without endpoint value to the customer, so to speak, and it's like us with Brexit.

事實上，人們已經做了他們需要做的事情，那就是在19 年，改變供應鏈並思考這一點，可以說，這對客戶來說是顛覆性的，沒有終點價值，就像我們英國脫歐一樣。

We spent $400 million plus money.

我們花了 4 億美元，還有其他錢。

The customers didn't get better services out of it.

客戶並沒有從中得到更好的服務。

We just had to create more entities and get them up and running.

我們只需要建立更多實體並讓它們啟動並運行。

Those things are sort of through the system.

這些事情都是透過系統進行的。

So I think that -- what you're feeling is a little bit of a relief on the other side of that work, which was being done, and worry, which is being done without a lot of activity.

所以我認為，你所感受到的，是對正在完成的工作的另一邊的一點緩解，以及在沒有大量活動的情況下完成的擔憂。

And so even capital expenditures, which grew at a much slower rate off the high in 2018, you're starting -- people -- our experts say will stabilize and kind of come out from there.

因此，即使資本支出的成長速度比 2018 年的高點要慢得多，但我們的專家表示，資本支出將會穩定下來，並從那裡開始恢復。

And on credit, Paul?

保羅，賒帳嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So on credit, I'd start by saying that we are always running through the portfolio, routinely analyzing various sectors, bringing it to senior management, discussing it.

因此，就信用而言，我首先要說的是，我們總是在審查投資組合，定期分析各個部門，將其提交給高階管理層並進行討論。

So we've got a real great process for always looking for some risks that are on the horizon.

因此，我們有一個真正出色的流程來始終尋找即將出現的風險。

As you know, we've been -- we've been running the company with strong underwriting standards for years now.

如您所知，我們多年來一直以嚴格的承保標準經營公司。

You see that in our CCAR results.

您可以在我們的 CCAR 結果中看到這一點。

So I mean, I hesitate to sort of pick 1 sector or another because we noticed stuff out in the marketplace, but it may not affect us directly, given how we've run the company for years now.

所以我的意思是，我猶豫是否選擇一個部門或另一個部門，因為我們注意到市場上有一些東西，但考慮到我們多年來經營公司的方式，它可能不會直接影響我們。

But if you're looking for some sectors that we're paying attention to, not that we think we're overly concerned about them given how we've managed the company, but we're certainly paying attention to leverage loan market, leverage lending.

但如果你正在尋找我們正在關注的一些行業，並不是說考慮到我們管理公司的方式，我們認為我們過度關注它們，但我們肯定會關注槓桿貸款市場、槓桿借貸。

We're certainly paying attention to energy with respect to natural gas prices.

我們當然會關注能源方面的天然氣價格。

We're certainly looking at retail with respect to enclosed malls.

我們當然正在關注封閉式購物中心的零售業。

We've got our eye on -- always have our eye on spots around the world that maybe experiencing a little disruption.

我們始終關注世界各地可能遭受輕微幹擾的地區。

So that's how I'd answer that question.

這就是我回答這個問題的方式。

We'll now go to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

現在我們將和 Jefferies 一起去見 Ken Usdin。

Just a question on the balance sheet and capital.

只是關於資產負債表和資本的問題。

So you're at 11.2% CET1.

所以你的 CET1 為 11.2%。

Your stated target has been around 10%.

您設定的目標是 10% 左右。

We're still waiting for the SCB finalization.

我們仍在等待 SCB 最終確定。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

So one, any anticipated changes to where you think your capital goal might be?

那麼第一，您認為您的資本目標可能會發生什麼預期變化？

Depending on what we get.

取決於我們得到什麼。

And then secondly, have you gone to a point where you might rethink the mix between your dividend payout, which is lower than peers, and the buyback in terms of the mix?

其次，您是否已經到了可能重新考慮股利支付（低於同業）和回購之間的組合的程度？

Maybe I'll start on, I guess, buffers, and you can -- Brian, you might want to pick up on the dividend or buybacks.

我想，也許我會開始緩衝，你可以——布萊恩，你可能想獲得股息或回購。

But look, today, as you point out, we have a meaningful cushion.

但是，正如您所指出的，今天我們有一個有意義的緩衝。

So it's really not an issue for us right now.

所以現在這對我們來說確實不是問題。

In terms of what our ultimate buffer is going to be when we don't have as much of a cushion, we haven't really talked about that publicly because we don't think it makes sense today to pre-charge what a buffer needs to be given the size of the current cushion, and given, as you mentioned, regulations, SCB, other things are still changing and lots of things can affect that buffer when we get there.

當我們沒有那麼多緩衝時，我們的最終緩衝是什麼，我們還沒有真正公開討論過，因為我們認為今天預先充電緩衝所需的東西是沒有意義的考慮到當前緩衝的大小，並考慮到，正如您提到的，法規、SCB、其他事情仍在變化，當我們到達那裡時，很多事情都會影響緩衝。

So but I would just emphasize, we have a sizable buffer right now.

所以，但我想強調的是，我們現在有相當大的緩衝區。

In terms of dividend versus buyback, we will keep increasing the dividend as we move up to sort of the 30% level and earnings payout.

就股息與回購而言，當我們達到 30% 的水平和盈利支付時，我們將繼續增加股息。

We've been clear about that.

對此我們已經說得很清楚了。

And then the rest will go into reducing the share count.

然後剩下的將用於減少股份數量。

And when you look at the page we showed you earlier, part of the issue was the share count was a lot higher than we -- than people expected, sort of in the 2009 time frame after the Merrill transaction.

當您查看我們之前向您展示的頁面時，您會發現問題的一部分是股票數量比我們預期的要高得多，比人們預期的要高，大約是在2009 年美林交易之後的時間範圍內。

So we're pushing that back down, and we think that's a good use of our capital.

所以我們正在推遲這一點，我們認為這是對我們資本的一個很好的利用。

We don't need the capital to fund the loan growth and deposit growth.

我們不需要資金來為貸款成長和存款成長提供資金。

You're seeing us able to do that through continuing to fine-tune the balance sheet.

你看到我們能夠透過繼續微調資產負債表來做到這一點。

And so expect us to move the dividend up consistent with what we've done before, assuming CCAR approval and all that good stuff.

因此，假設獲得 CCAR 批准以及所有這些好東西，預計我們將按照先前的做法提高股息。

But it's -- the idea is we'll keep it at a level that allows us to use the share buyback to help drive the EPS growth, and you saw the benefits of that year-over-year in an environment where the rate movements mid earnings flatten in the second half of the year.

但我們的想法是，我們將把它保持在一個水平，使我們能夠利用股票回購來幫助推動每股收益的增長，並且在利率變動中等的環境中，你看到了同比的好處。下半年盈利趨於平緩。

What you saw was the EPS year-over-year was up double digits because we can retire the shares.

你看到的是每股盈餘年增了兩位數，因為我們可以註銷股票。

And so we think that's the best thing to do for the shareholders.

所以我們認為這對股東來說是最好的事情。

We'll take our next question from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行馬特·奧康納的下一個問題。

I was just wondering if you could talk about the pace of loan growth that you're expecting for 2020, maybe both kind of within the business lines and then net from the drive from runoff?

我只是想知道您是否可以談談您對 2020 年貸款成長的預期，也許既包括業務範圍內的貸款成長速度，也包括徑流驅動的淨貸款成長速度？

And then the drivers of growth, and if that's changing at all versus what it's been in the last kind of 6, 12 months.

然後是成長的驅動因素，以及與過去 6、12 個月相比是否有任何變化。

Obviously, commercial for the industry has slowed.

顯然，該行業的商業化已經放緩。

Maybe that's temporary.

也許那是暫時的。

So just talk about the pace and the drivers of loan growth this year.

那就談談今年貸款成長的速度和驅動因素吧。

Sure.

當然。

So look, growth in our business segments should continue to be kind of mid-single digits.

所以看，我們的業務部門的成長應該繼續保持在中個位數。

As you know, we grew 6% this quarter.

如您所知，本季度我們成長了 6%。

Both consumer and GWIM grew at 7%, driven by increased residential mortgage activity.

在住宅抵押貸款活動增加的推動下，消費者和 GWIM 均成長了 7%。

Global Banking grew 6% year-over-year, and that was driven by large corporates, middle market companies, leasing activity and solid growth in international regions.

全球銀行業務年增 6%，這是由大型企業、中型市場公司、租賃活動和國際地區的穩健成長所推動的。

So pretty broad-based.

基礎非常廣泛。

We anticipate solid growth in consumer loans, assuming the current economic environment, as well as the sort of pull-through of applications through the -- mortgage applications through the pipeline.

假設當前的經濟環境以及透過抵押貸款申請的拉動，我們預計消費貸款將穩定成長。

With respect to card, we've already talked a little bit about that.

關於卡，我們已經討論過一些了。

We expect that we can start growing card over time here.

我們希望隨著時間的推移，我們可以開始在這裡種植卡片。

With respect to residential mortgages, originations were strong this quarter.

就住宅抵押貸款而言，本季的發放量強勁。

They were up significantly.

他們的漲幅顯著。

So that's going to translate to solid Q1 growth.

因此，這將轉化為第一季的穩健成長。

However, you have to remember that, that's going to be partially offset by continued runoff of the non-core portfolio.

然而，您必須記住，這將被非核心投資組合的持續流失所部分抵消。

We expect all growth to be up modestly year-over-year.

我們預計所有成長都將比去年小幅成長。

We expect solid growth in small business.

我們預計小型企業將穩健成長。

And remember, in all these categories that I'm talking about, we remain focused on prime and super prime.

請記住，在我談論的所有這些類別中，我們仍然專注於素數和超素數。

And on commercial loans, our outlook remains favorable.

在商業貸款方面，我們的前景仍然樂觀。

Again, growth year-over-year should be in sort of mid-single digits.

同樣，同比增長應該在中等個位數左右。

So that's how I'd run through it.

這就是我的經驗。

Okay.

好的。

And then netting out the kind of mid- single-digit growth in the business segments with the runoff, do you think you could kind of stay in this pace of the 4% growth that you saw this quarter as some of the macro holes?

然後用徑流扣除業務部門的中等個位數成長，您認為您是否可以保持 4% 的成長速度（您認為本季存在一些宏觀漏洞）？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And if you look at the runoff chart on the loan page there in the upper right-hand corner, you'll see that we basically have gotten really to the point where that's now natural runoff.

如果您查看右上角貸款頁面上的徑流圖表，您會發現我們基本上已經達到了自然徑流的程度。

There won't be any sales of major impacts for purposes that we were doing before to continue to move loans, which we weren't getting income on because of their status in terms of restructuring and things like that out and clean the portfolio.

我們先前所做的繼續轉移貸款的目的不會有任何重大影響的銷售，由於它們在重組和清理投資組合方面的狀況，我們沒有獲得收入。

That's just smaller, so I think that helps the overall nominal growth number for the company.

只是規模較小，所以我認為這有助於公司的整體名義成長。

It's not going to be $1.5 billion to $2 billion...

不會是15億到20億美元......

Sorry.

對不起。

Maybe $1.5 billion or $2 billion of loan sales, but nothing major?

也許是 15 億美元或 20 億美元的貸款銷售，但沒什麼大不了的？

Is that what you're saying?

你是這麼說的嗎？

No, no, not loan sales.

不，不，不是貸款銷售。

The runoff.

徑流。

That's the runoff.

這就是徑流。

The runoff is running at about $1.5 billion, $2 billion per quarter.

決選金額約 15 億美元，每季 20 億美元。

Of just natural paydowns in those mortgages and home equities.

這些抵押貸款和房屋淨值的自然還款。

We'll take our last question today from Saul Martinez with UBS.

今天我們將回答瑞銀的索爾‧馬丁內斯提出的最後一個問題。

So forgive me for beating a dead horse on the efficiency ratio question.

所以請原諒我在效率比問題上的死馬。

But I guess I'll ask it in a slightly different way.

但我想我會以稍微不同的方式問它。

I mean, you guys are at, what, 57%, 58% even with GWIM being a big part of the overall mix, revenue mix.

我的意思是，你們的比例是 57%、58%，即使 GWIM 是整體組合、收入組合的重要組成部分。

But if we assume that revenue growth gets back to, say, GDP growth over time, is there any reason why you couldn't reduce your efficiency ratio below, say, the mid-50s percent range into the low 50s, given some of the opportunities you talked about, Brian, and just secular trends towards digitization, electronification of payments, which obviously reduce this unit cost pretty materially.

但是，如果我們假設收入成長隨著時間的推移恢復到GDP成長，那麼考慮到某些因素，是否有任何理由不能將效率比率降低到50%左右以下到50%左右以下？布萊恩，你談到的機會，以及數位化、支付電子化的長期趨勢，這顯然大大降低了單位成本。

Is there -- it doesn't seem like there's an obvious reason why you couldn't continue to drive that down pretty materially even from here?

是不是——似乎沒有明顯的理由讓你無法從現在起繼續大幅降低這一水平？

That's what we're doing.

這就是我們正在做的事情。

If you keep the expenses flat, and the basis of the premise was if the revenue grows, PDP plus, that's 200 basis points of operating leverage, and that will keep producing efficiency ratio by definition.

如果你保持支出不變，前提的基礎是如果收入成長，PDP加上，那就是200個基點的營運槓桿，並且根據定義，這將繼續產生效率比。

So you're stating what our job is, and we've been able to do it, and we'll continue to.

所以你說的是我們的工作是什麼，我們已經能夠做到，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

Okay.

好的。

So there's no obvious -- is there any point at which, or any obvious point at which it becomes just much more difficult?

所以沒有明顯的——是否有任何一點，或者任何明顯的一點，它會變得更加困難？

Or is there -- the glide path from here is just seems like there's nothing really to prevent you from doing that for a while?

或者是——從這裡開始的下滑路徑似乎暫時沒有什麼可以阻止你這樣做？

We'll let you know when we think we can't do it anymore, but we don't see it, so.

當我們認為我們不能再這樣做時，我們會讓您知道，但我們沒有看到它，所以。

So we have no further questions at this time.

所以我們目前沒有進一步的問題。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call back to Brian Moynihan for any closing remarks.

現在，我很高興將電話轉回給布萊恩·莫伊尼漢 (Brian Moynihan)，讓其發表結束語。

Well, I thank all of you for your attention on the call.

好的，我感謝大家對這次電話會議的關注。

We finished another strong year in 2019 for the team, and they did a great job growing the earnings, doing it the right way, making the investments across the franchise.

我們團隊在 2019 年又迎來了強勁的一年，他們在增加收入、以正確的方式進行投資以及對整個特許經營權進行投資方面做得很好。

As we say, it's a nice start.

正如我們所說，這是一個好的開始。

We'll continue to focus on responsible growth.

我們將繼續關注負責任的成長。

We've got a lot of room to run in this company.

我們在這家公司有很大的發展空間。

Every business had good client activity, the loan to deposit, underlying customer growth at the size and scale of this institution are tremendous work of our teammates.

每家企業都有良好的客戶活動、貸款存款、基礎客戶成長（該機構的規模和規模）是我們團隊成員的巨大工作。

And all that helped us provide stable performance with the rate cut that came through relatively late in the year.

所有這些都幫助我們透過今年相對較晚的降息來提供穩定的績效。

So we feel good about that, and we feel good about working through the other side of as Paul described earlier.

所以我們對此感覺良好，並且我們對解決保羅之前描述的另一面感到滿意。

We are focused on the cost, as many of you asked about, but we're focused on continuing to develop and implement products and services, which meet the market's needs and continue to help us grow our market share across every business at the rate we're doing it, which we think is an opportunity, which is ours to continue to take.

正如你們許多人所問的那樣，我們關注的是成本，但我們專注於繼續開發和實施產品和服務，以滿足市場的需求，並繼續幫助我們以我們的速度提高每項業務的市場份額。我們正在這樣做，我們認為這是一個機會，這是我們繼續抓住的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's program.

今天的節目到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect at any time.

您可以隨時斷開連線。