美國銀行 (BAC) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Bank of America Earnings Announcement.

大家好，歡迎收看今天的美國銀行收益公告。

(Operator Instructions) Please note today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意今天的通話正在錄音。

It is my pleasure now to turn the conference over to Lee McEntire.

現在我很高興將會議交給 Lee McEntire。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning.

早上好。

Thanks for joining the call to review our second quarter results.

感謝您加入電話會議以審查我們的第二季度業績。

I trust everybody has had a chance to review our earnings release documents.

我相信每個人都有機會查看我們的收益發布文件。

They're available on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website.

它們可在 bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分找到。

I'm going to first turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening comments and then ask Paul Donofrio, our CFO, to cover some other elements of the quarter.

我將首先將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Brian Moynihan，以獲得一些開場評論，然後請我們的首席財務官 Paul Donofrio 介紹本季度的其他一些內容。

Before I turn the call over to Brian, just let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements during the call.

在我將電話轉給布賴恩之前，讓我提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述。

And for further information on those forward-looking comments, please refer to either our earnings release documents, our website or our SEC filings.

有關這些前瞻性評論的更多信息，請參閱我們的收益發布文件、我們的網站或我們的 SEC 文件。

So with that, let me turn it over to you, Brian.

有了這個，讓我把它交給你，布賴恩。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you, Lee, and thank all of you for joining us for our results.

謝謝你，李，也感謝你們所有人加入我們的行列。

As I step back and thought about talking to you this quarter, I thought back to our discussion of last quarter's results.

當我退後一步並考慮在本季度與您交談時，我回想起我們對上一季度業績的討論。

In mid-April, as we were talking, we sat in the depths of the COVID-19 crisis.

4 月中旬，正如我們所說，我們正處於 COVID-19 危機的最深處。

We saw -- we're seeing a rise in virus cases.

我們看到 - 我們看到病毒病例有所增加。

We completed a massive move in our company and companies around the world to work from home, we were closing branches for safety and other facilities.

我們在公司和世界各地的公司中完成了一項大規模的在家工作的舉措，我們正在關閉分支機構以確保安全和其他設施。

We had 1 million customers who had already approached us by mid-April, asking for assistance in terms of paying their loans.

到 4 月中旬，我們已經有 100 萬客戶與我們聯繫，要求在償還貸款方面提供幫助。

We've seen a massive amount of commercial line draws in mid-March to mid-April and loan requests out of panic and the need to create instant liquidity.

我們已經看到在 3 月中旬至 4 月中旬期間出現了大量的商業貸款申請，以及出於恐慌和創造即時流動性的需要而提出的貸款請求。

And as the -- we saw a flood of deposits looking for a safe haven at the same time.

而且，我們看到大量存款同時在尋找避風港。

Yet at that time, the core economic projections were still catching up to the worsening predictions of the future and the reality of the health officials' projections of the virus path and the reality of shut down and stay-at-home orders.

然而，當時的核心經濟預測仍在趕上對未來惡化的預測，以及衛生官員對病毒傳播路徑預測的現實以及關閉和居家令的現實。

And now we're a quarter later.

現在我們晚了四分之一。

In some areas, the cases are still rising and some areas are rising less.

在一些地區，病例仍在上升，而一些地區的上升幅度較小。

Economic predictions have been revised, and the forward path has deteriorated from last quarter.

經濟預測已被修正，前進道路較上季度惡化。

Baseline projections now extend the length of the recessionary environment into 2022, deep into 2022.

現在，基線預測將衰退環境的持續時間延長至 2022 年，甚至延長至 2022 年。

We provide substantial additional reserves for expected future credit losses this quarter to reflect that, and that has impacted our earnings.

我們為本季度預期的未來信用損失提供了大量額外準備金以反映這一點，這已經影響了我們的收益。

On the other hand, there has been some encouraging signs.

另一方面，也出現了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。

Consumer spending activity has vastly improved since April.

自 4 月以來，消費者支出活動已大大改善。

Spending by Bank of America consumers during 2019 was a total of $3 trillion, so it's a sizable sample of U.S. activity.

美國銀行消費者在 2019 年的支出總額為 3 萬億美元，因此這是美國活動的一個相當大的樣本。

For the month of April, that spending was down 26% compared to April of 2019.

與 2019 年 4 月相比，4 月份的支出下降了 26%。

However, for the month of June, that spending was relatively flat to 2019.

然而，在 6 月份，該支出與 2019 年持平。

And so far through the first couple of weeks of July, we're seeing that total spending actually be above what it was last year.

到目前為止，到 7 月的前幾週，我們看到總支出實際上高於去年。

Customers and businesses have adapted to a new environment.

客戶和企業已經適應了新環境。

Some have reopened, and yes, some have also been reclosed or limited again.

有些已經重新開放，是的，有些也已重新關閉或再次受到限制。

We expect this start-stop to be the base case as we look ahead.

在我們展望未來時，我們預計這個起點將成為基本情況。

At present, core operating assumptions for making our credit projections and our reserving by the unemployment stays elevated and ends this year at around 10%.

目前，我們做出信貸預測和我們的失業準備金的核心經營假設保持在高位，今年年底在 10% 左右。

And it remains at 9% in the first half of 2021 and 7.5% at the end of '21.

2021 年上半年保持在 9%，到 21 年底保持在 7.5%。

In that provision setting scenario mix, it takes some time until late 2022 or early 2023 for the aggregate GDP level to get to the same size it was heading into 2020.

在這種撥備設置情景組合中，到 2022 年底或 2023 年初，GDP 總水平需要一段時間才能達到與 2020 年相同的規模。

So it will be a bit of work to get out -- to get back to that level.

因此，要退出- 回到那個水平將是一些工作。

The central banks around the world, led by actions of the Fed, provided unprecedented liquidity in the financial system.

世界各地的中央銀行在美聯儲的行動下，為金融體系提供了前所未有的流動性。

The U.S. government has also provided direct payments through unemployment supplements EIP, the PPP program and many other things to help American citizens weather the storm.

美國政府還通過失業補助 EIP、PPP 計劃和許多其他方式提供直接付款，以幫助美國公民度過難關。

Due to all that, the number of things are, in fact, different from our last quarter conversation.

由於這一切，事實上，事情的數量與我們上個季度的談話不同。

Panic borrowing has dissipated as it marks to provide a financing source for many companies to extend their maturities.

恐慌性借貸已經消散，因為它標誌著為許多公司提供融資來源以延長其到期日。

Most companies have stabilized their operations.

大多數公司已經穩定了運營。

Draw rates and middle market lines of credit are back to levels that they were mid last year.

提取率和中間市場信貸額度恢復到去年年中的水平。

In the smaller business segment, they are actually down as companies do not need the liquidity.

在較小的業務領域，它們實際上下降了，因為公司不需要流動性。

But many companies may not like where they are in terms of revenue growth, they have stabilized.

但許多公司可能不喜歡他們在收入增長方面的情況，他們已經穩定下來。

Consumers have benefited from direct stimulus and deferrals on loan payments from banks, such that delinquencies are far lower than what would be predicted in an 11% unemployment scenario.

消費者從銀行的直接刺激和延期還款中受益，因此拖欠率遠低於在 11% 的失業率情景下的預測。

Consumers have more money in their accounts.

消費者的賬戶裡有更多的錢。

For those that received the PPP, the small business that received it at Bank of America, we estimate that the money has been spent out of the PPP proceeds at only 35% level so far.

對於那些在美國銀行收到 PPP 的小企業，我們估計到目前為止，這筆錢已經從 PPP 收益中花掉了 35% 的水平。

So 65%'s left to be distributed from those companies to their employees and other vendors.

因此，剩下的 65% 將從這些公司分配給他們的員工和其他供應商。

Coronavirus assistance requests have fallen, the consumer, what we call CAP program, the week of request for the last 3 weeks are down 98% from where they were in mid-April.

冠狀病毒援助請求下降了，消費者，我們稱之為 CAP 計劃，過去 3 週的請求週比 4 月中旬下降了 98%。

The question we all get asked then is when will the storm end?

我們都被問到的問題是風暴什麼時候結束？

That is and has always been a health care question, not an economic one.

這一直是一個醫療保健問題，而不是經濟問題。

So our job continues to be prepared for whatever the economic scenario ahead brings.

因此，無論未來的經濟形勢如何，我們的工作都會繼續做好準備。

And how do you get prepared?

以及如何做好準備？

Well it's too late to start in the second quarter 2020.

好吧，在 2020 年第二季度開始為時已晚。

We did that through our adamantine team, decade-long effort to drive responsible growth in our company.

我們通過我們堅韌的團隊做到了這一點，十年來為推動公司負責任的增長而努力。

Portfolio is in great shape heading into this year.

投資組合在今年進入了很好的狀態。

And in the second quarter, we reviewed our commercial loan portfolios at a customer level across our businesses.

在第二季度，我們在整個業務的客戶層面審查了我們的商業貸款組合。

Our risk ratings are up to date.

我們的風險評級是最新的。

We're moving credit quickly to criticize our NPL designations.

我們正在迅速轉移信貸以批評我們的 NPL 指定。

We've also gone through every credit to assess the needs that they'll have to borrow in the near term for liquidity and business prospects.

我們還檢查了每筆貸款，以評估他們在短期內必須藉入的流動性和業務前景需求。

On our consumer books, we also benefit from the decade-long improvement in our underwriting standards.

在我們的消費類書籍中，我們還受益於長達十年的承保標準改進。

We remain consistent.

我們保持一致。

And since the virus, rising unemployment-related matters, we pared our consumer risk appetite.

而且由於病毒，與失業率上升相關的問題，我們降低了消費者的風險偏好。

A key difference in our company now versus the last crisis is the unsecured card portfolio.

我們公司現在與上次危機的一個關鍵區別是無擔保卡組合。

It's basically half of what it was going into the Great Recession and with better asset quality.

它基本上是大蕭條時期的一半，資產質量更好。

Another example of difference is our commercial real estate, especially the far less exposure, especially in the construction area.

另一個不同的例子是我們的商業地產，尤其是曝光率要低得多，尤其是在建築領域。

We saw recent stress tests prove this out again as we had the lowest losses among the large firms.

我們看到最近的壓力測試再次證明了這一點，因為我們在大公司中損失最低。

For the seventh of the 8 past -- for the seventh out of the 8 -- past 8 stress tests the Fed has run.

對於過去 8 次中的第 7 次——8 次中的第 7 次——美聯儲已經進行了 8 次壓力測試。

We've also improved our fortress balance sheet get even from year-end to today, all this amidst this crisis.

在這場危機中，我們還改善了從年底到今天的堡壘資產負債表。

We have built liquidity.

我們已經建立了流動性。

Our liquidity at the end of the quarter was up $800 billion on average.

我們在本季度末的流動性平均增加了 8000 億美元。

It is significantly up from year-end.

與年末相比大幅上升。

We've doubled our credit reserves to $21 billion from where they stood at year-end.

我們的信貸儲備從年底的水平翻了一番，達到 210 億美元。

We've built our capital levels, resulting in a common equity Tier 1 ratio at the end of the quarter of 11.4% versus 11.2% at year-end.

我們已經建立了資本水平，導致本季度末的普通股一級比率為 11.4%，而年末為 11.2%。

And we're 190 basis points above our regulatory minimum.

而且我們比我們的最低監管要求高出 190 個基點。

And as we disclosed to you after the stress test, we have room with -- even within a stressed capital buffer as we're floored at the 2.5% level despite the 2% actual calculation.

正如我們在壓力測試後向您披露的那樣，我們有空間——即使在壓力資本緩衝內，因為儘管實際計算為 2%，我們仍處於 2.5% 的水平。

We earned $7.5 billion year-to-date even as we built those reserves, and we returned $10 billion of capital to you in the first half.

即使我們建立了這些儲備，我們今年迄今仍賺取了 75 億美元，並且我們在上半年向您返還了 100 億美元的資本。

By the way, charge-offs in the quarter were stable, and the ratio remained low at 45 basis points this quarter, and our NPL has only increased modestly in this environment despite scouring the portfolio for rating changes.

順便說一句，本季度的沖銷是穩定的，本季度的比率保持在 45 個基點的低位，儘管我們對投資組合進行評級變化，但在這種環境下，我們的不良貸款僅適度增加。

Quarterly expenses of $13.4 billion remained in a tight 4-year long range of $13 billion to $13.5 billion with little exception, even as we continued our investments over the period and incurred higher COVID operating expenses.

134 億美元的季度支出保持在 130 億美元至 135 億美元的窄幅 4 年長期範圍內，幾乎沒有例外，儘管我們在此期間繼續投資並產生了更高的 COVID 運營費用。

During the crisis, we also haven't lost our way on our strategic programs.

在危機期間，我們的戰略計劃也沒有迷失方向。

During the first half, we have driven our promise as the digital leader across all our businesses.

上半年，我們兌現了作為所有業務數字化領導者的承諾。

Our capabilities have enabled smooth transitions for our companies and our institutional investors and our people who we work with as customers, whether they're working from home or shelter in place to transact their financial business whatever way they want to.

我們的能力使我們的公司和機構投資者以及與我們作為客戶一起工作的人能夠順利過渡，無論他們是在家工作還是在適當的地方工作，以任何他們想要的方式處理他們的金融業務。

Where this goes, we will see.

這將發生在哪裡，我們將拭目以待。

Our raw data has provided some signs of cautious optimism.

我們的原始數據提供了一些謹慎樂觀的跡象。

We emphasize cautious here.

我們在這裡強調謹慎。

We aren't in the (inaudible) state here.

我們在這裡不是處於（聽不清）狀態。

We are being diligent, and we're making sure we keep our company strong.

我們很勤奮，我們確保我們的公司保持強大。

In any regard, we are ready for whatever happens because of the last decade of hard work on responsible growth.

無論如何，由於過去十年在負責任增長方面的辛勤工作，我們已為所發生的一切做好了準備。

Most importantly, we're ready because we have 212,000 talented teammates who work with me every day to come and do a great job for the customers, communities and our shareholders.

最重要的是，我們已經準備好了，因為我們有 212,000 名才華橫溢的隊友每天與我一起工作，為客戶、社區和我們的股東做好工作。

So let's drop into quarter 2 results.

所以讓我們看看第二季度的結果。

We're going to do Slide 2 and Slide 3 together.

我們將一起做幻燈片 2 和幻燈片 3。

And I'd ask you to refer to that combination.

我請你參考那個組合。

The commentary on 3 talks about the charts on Slide 2. This quarter, we showed the balance in our company.

3 的評論談到了幻燈片 2 上的圖表。本季度，我們顯示了我們公司的平衡。

While our more credit-sensitive businesses saw lower earnings due to provisions and lower rates impacted our fast-growing deposit-intensive businesses, our position as a top capital markets platform for issuers and institutional investors allows us to produce solid overall results.

雖然我們對信用更敏感的業務由於撥備和較低的利率影響了我們快速增長的存款密集型業務而導致收益下降，但我們作為發行人和機構投資者的頂級資本市場平台的地位使我們能夠產生穩健的整體業績。

Markets served as an anchor to windward for the company.

市場成為公司迎風的錨。

In the second quarter, we produced $3.5 billion of net income.

在第二季度，我們產生了 35 億美元的淨收入。

This concluded building our loan loss reserve by $4 billion due to a total provision expense of $5.1 billion.

由於總撥備費用為 51 億美元，因此我們的貸款損失準備金增加了 40 億美元。

Earnings were $0.37 per share.

每股收益為0.37美元。

Earnings are down $3.8 billion from the second quarter of last year driven primarily by our reserve build.

與去年第二季度相比，收益下降了 38 億美元，主要是由於我們的儲備增加。

As I did last quarter, I think it's useful to draw your attention to the pretax preprovision income number.

正如我上個季度所做的那樣，我認為提醒您注意稅前預提收入數字很有用。

We believe that number helps assess the earnings power of the company to support credit costs in a downturn.

我們認為，該數字有助於評估公司在經濟低迷時期支持信貸成本的盈利能力。

We produced $8.9 billion of pretax preprovision income, which was down 9% from quarter 2 '19, given the changes in interest rates, in the growth of deposits and the impact it has in our company, the forgiveness in fees we've made to help accommodate our consumer customers in time of stress and the overall lower economic activity of record drops in this quarter.

我們產生了 89 億美元的稅前撥備收入，比 19 年第 2 季度下降了 9%，原因是利率的變化、存款的增長及其對我們公司的影響、我們對費用的減免幫助適應我們的消費者客戶在壓力和本季度創紀錄下降的整體經濟活動低迷時期。

It shows pretty remarkable resilience.

它顯示出非常顯著的彈性。

In fact, it's just below the average of pretax preprovision income for the level of the past 4 quarters.

事實上，這僅低於過去 4 個季度的稅前預提收入平均值。

The 3% year-over-year decline in revenue was driven by lower NII.

收入同比下降 3% 是由於 NII 下降所致。

NII fell to $11 billion this quarter.

本季度 NII 跌至 110 億美元。

This bearing the brunt of the significant first quarter rate cuts for the entire quarter.

這在整個季度的第一季度大幅降息中首當其衝。

Mitigating the revenue decline from NII was strong Global Markets results.

緩解 NII 收入下降的原因是強勁的全球市場業績。

Sales and trading revenues, excluding DVA of $4.4 billion were up 35% year-over-year.

銷售和交易收入（不包括 44 億美元的 DVA）同比增長 35%。

Investment Banking fees of $2.2 billion were a record and grew 57% year-on-year.

22 億美元的投資銀行費用創歷史新高，同比增長 57%。

In aggregate, we saw a $1.9 billion improvement in sales and trading investment banking year-over-year.

總體而言，我們看到銷售和交易投資銀行業務同比增長 19 億美元。

Most importantly, and we think about profit in this company, our Global Markets team produced $1.9 billion in after-tax profit as a separate segment.

最重要的是，考慮到這家公司的利潤，我們的全球市場團隊作為一個單獨的部門產生了 19 億美元的稅後利潤。

Our noninterest expense was $13.4 billion, as I said earlier, and it rough -- included roughly $400 million in net impact of expenses and savings related to COVID-19.

正如我之前所說，我們的非利息支出為 134 億美元，而且很粗略——包括大約 4 億美元的與 COVID-19 相關的費用和儲蓄的淨影響。

Our return on tangible common equity was 8%.

我們的有形普通股回報率為 8%。

Let's go to Slide 4. Here, we note the continuation and expansion of the programs to support our teammates and clients initiated last quarter.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。在這裡，我們注意到上個季度啟動的支持我們的隊友和客戶的計劃的延續和擴展。

In quarter 1, we established broad measures to promote the health and safety of our teammates that helped limit their exposure to COVID.

在第一季度，我們制定了廣泛的措施來促進我們隊友的健康和安全，這有助於限制他們接觸 COVID。

In quarter 2, we continue to expand in those efforts and have remained mostly in the work-from-home posture with less than 15% of our employees in offices or financial centers or call centers around the world.

在第 2 季度，我們繼續擴大這些努力，並且主要保持在家工作的狀態，我們在全球辦公室、金融中心或呼叫中心的員工不到 15%。

We continue to provide ongoing access to comprehensive benefits and resources such as enhanced backup childcare and adult care services, among the many other supplements and incentives for frontline associates.

我們將繼續提供全面的福利和資源，例如增強的備用兒童保育和成人保育服務，以及為一線員工提供的許多其他補充和激勵措施。

And all those costs are in the numbers you're seeing this quarter.

所有這些成本都在你本季度看到的數字中。

And we honor our commitments to hire the 2,800 students for summer jobs and permanent jobs coming out of college.

我們履行我們的承諾，僱用 2,800 名學生從事暑期工作和大學畢業後的長期工作。

Taking care of employees is the right thing to do and enables each of them to play the important role they must as providers of critical services for the U.S. economy and the worldwide economy.

照顧員工是正確的做法，並使他們每個人都能發揮重要作用，為美國經濟和全球經濟提供關鍵服務。

In addition to keeping our financial centers open to serve clients continuously through the crisis, we continue to offer assistance in our commercial, consumer and small business clients affected by COVID.

除了保持我們的金融中心在危機中持續為客戶提供服務外，我們還將繼續為受 COVID 影響的商業、消費者和小型企業客戶提供幫助。

These actions include payment deferrals, refund of certain consumer fees, pausing certain foreclosure sales and repossessions of cars, evictions and other matters.

這些行動包括延期付款、退還某些消費者費用、暫停某些止贖銷售和收回汽車、驅逐和其他事項。

One noteworthy path was the PPP, the Paycheck Protection Program.

一條值得注意的路徑是 PPP，即薪資保護計劃。

We all -- we originated the largest number of loans in that program at 334,000-plus small business clients receiving loan, providing funding of $25 billion.

我們所有人——我們在該計劃中發起了最多的貸款，有 334,000 多家小企業客戶獲得貸款，提供了 250 億美元的資金。

We also supported the communities we live in.

我們還支持我們居住的社區。

After announcement of the -- in quarter 1 to donate $100 million to fight the immediate effects of the pandemic, we announced a new initiative in quarter 2. We recognized there are communities and certain people that have been disproportionately impacted by this health care crisis and the elevated racial tensions that existed for years in this country.

在第一季度宣布捐贈 1 億美元以抗擊大流行的直接影響後，我們在第二季度宣布了一項新舉措。我們認識到有些社區和某些人受到了這場醫療保健危機的不成比例的影響，並且這個國家多年來存在的種族緊張局勢加劇。

We announced a $1 billion 4-year commitment to advance issues of racial equality, economic opportunity and health care initiatives.

我們宣布了一項為期 4 年的 10 億美元承諾，用於推進種族平等、經濟機會和醫療保健倡議等問題。

Our market presidents and other leaders throughout the country are busy working to play their vital role in helping us plan how we deploy those critical funds to these critical actions.

我們在全國的市場總裁和其他領導人正忙於發揮他們的重要作用，幫助我們計劃如何將這些關鍵資金用於這些關鍵行動。

I'm proud of how my teammates serve their customers and clients during this COVID crisis, but I'm even prouder how they're playing a part more generally to help.

我為我的隊友在這場 COVID 危機期間如何為他們的客戶和客戶服務感到自豪，但我更自豪的是他們如何更廣泛地發揮作用來提供幫助。

On Page 5, we discuss the deferrals.

在第 5 頁，我們討論了延期。

The assistance program, the customer systems program, as we call it CAP, for our clients to provide easy access to request loan deferrals and ease their immediate financial burdens.

協助計劃，客戶系統計劃，我們稱之為 CAP，為我們的客戶提供方便的途徑來申請延期貸款並減輕他們直接的財務負擔。

Request built quickly, peaking in the first week of April at 415,000 requests in a single week.

請求快速建立，在 4 月的第一周達到峰值，一周內有 415,000 個請求。

They started dropping from that point and have continued to drop.

他們從那一點開始下降並繼續下降。

By mid-May, the request fell in the last 3 weeks, we've been consistently 98% below that peak.

到 5 月中旬，請求在過去 3 週內下降，我們一直低於該峰值 98%。

In total, we processed 1.8 million consumer deferrals with about 1.7 million of those remaining as we -- end of July.

總共，我們處理了 180 萬份消費者延期付款，其中大約 170 萬份仍在我們之前 - 7 月底。

This represents $30 billion of consumer balance with payments on deferral.

這代表了 300 億美元的消費者余額，其中包括延期付款。

The largest numbers of process deferrals, as you can see, are credit card holders.

如您所見，最大數量的流程延期是信用卡持有人。

Another area of concentrated request is the Practice Solutions group and small business.

另一個集中請求的領域是實踐解決方案組和小型企業。

Let me provide a little deeper insight into these categories.

讓我對這些類別進行更深入的了解。

You can see it on the lower right-hand part of the slide.

您可以在幻燈片的右下方看到它。

On credit card, 85% of the deferrals were initiated in late March, early April and has died down since then.

在信用卡方面，85% 的延期是在 3 月下旬、4 月初開始的，此後逐漸減少。

95% that initiated were current on their payments when the deferral was requested.

當請求延期時，95% 的發起人是按時付款的。

More than 60% of the active card deferrals have made at least 1 payment since going on deferral, 1/3 have made every payment every month.

超過 60% 的活躍卡延期自延期以來至少支付了 1 筆款項，1/3 每月支付了每筆款項。

As we look forward, if there are no other major changes in consumer spending habits or major macro deterioration, we'd expect card deferrals to decline significantly in quarter 3, given the expiration in these payment observations.

正如我們展望的那樣，如果消費者消費習慣沒有其他重大變化或宏觀宏觀惡化，鑑於這些支付觀察到期，我們預計第三季度信用卡延期將顯著下降。

Importantly, our credit reserving that you see in our P&L today reflects the individual credit characteristics of all these deferred borrowers and a higher risk they propose.

重要的是，您今天在損益表中看到的我們的信用準備金反映了所有這些延期借款人的個人信用特徵以及他們提出的更高風險。

Small business is where we saw the highest percentage of accounts requesting assistance.

小型企業是我們看到請求幫助的帳戶比例最高的地方。

As you may recall, last quarter, we talked about this.

您可能還記得，上個季度，我們談到了這一點。

These requests came from our business Practice Solutions group.

這些請求來自我們的業務實踐解決方案組。

These are mostly dentists and doctors who were shut down during the crisis, but now are open.

這些大多是在危機期間被關閉但現在開放的牙醫和醫生。

As that -- they reopen, our internal survey shows that 80% of these borrowers as of a few weeks ago were all back to work with steady revenue.

就這樣 - 他們重新開放，我們的內部調查顯示，截至幾週前，這些借款人中有 80% 都以穩定的收入重返工作崗位。

In our contacts with the accounts, 90% indicated no elevated level of continued distress and informed us they'll need not to continue their deferral.

在我們與這些賬戶的聯繫中，90% 的人表示持續的痛苦沒有升高，並告訴我們他們不需要繼續延期。

And while not in this chart, our deferrals for commercial accounts amounted roughly 2% of our loans, being 1% of those are unsecured or through -- and through conversations with these borrowers, we'd not expect many of these to request a second deferral.

雖然不在此圖表中，但我們對商業賬戶的延期大約占我們貸款的 2%，其中 1% 是無擔保或通過的——通過與這些借款人的對話，我們預計其中許多人不會要求第二次延期。

Now moving on to Page -- Slide 6 for consumer spending.

現在轉到第 6 頁——關於消費者支出的幻燈片。

After a significant slowdown in consumer spending in April, we began to see signs of improvement beginning in May.

在 4 月份消費者支出顯著放緩之後，我們開始看到 5 月份開始出現改善的跡象。

And while still early, we have seen momentum in early July.

雖然還為時過早，但我們已經在 7 月初看到了勢頭。

Chart on Slide 6 shows a 7-day moving average of payments and compares that to same week last year.

幻燈片 6 上的圖表顯示了 7 天的付款移動平均值，並將其與去年同一周進行了比較。

There are 3 lines representing credit, debit and total spending.

有 3 行分別代表信用卡、借方和總支出。

Again, credit is about 12%.

同樣，信貸約為 12%。

Debit's about the same amount.

借記卡的金額差不多。

And total spending, it's obviously the $3 trillion I talked about before.

總支出，顯然是我之前談到的 3 萬億美元。

Overall, in the first couple of months of the year, at -- in a healthy U.S. economy, payments were running as high single-digit percentage pace ahead of the same period in 2019.

總體而言，在今年前幾個月，在美國經濟健康的情況下，支付速度比 2019 年同期高出個位數百分比。

That changed as the pandemic spread and the economy shutdown.

隨著大流行的蔓延和經濟停擺，這種情況發生了變化。

We saw a severe decline across all payment types, particularly in discretionary spending on categories like travel, leisure and entertainment, which drives credit card spending to lower levels than other forms of payment, including debit card.

我們看到所有支付類型都出現了嚴重下降，特別是旅遊、休閒和娛樂等類別的可自由支配支出，這導致信用卡支出低於其他支付方式，包括借記卡。

This was followed by a large increase in payments for necessities around groceries and staples like health supplies.

緊隨其後的是對食品雜貨和衛生用品等必需品的支付大幅增加。

But as you can see, those payments are made largely with debit cards or cash.

但正如您所看到的，這些付款主要是使用借記卡或現金進行的。

As states began to reopen over the past couple of months, we saw an improvement in spending levels as customers became more active buying fuel and spending on home projects and eating out.

隨著各州在過去幾個月開始重新開放，我們看到支出水平有所改善，因為客戶變得更加積極地購買燃料以及在家庭項目和外出就餐上的支出。

Much of that improvement has been paid through debit usage as customers saw the stimulus payments and other assistance in their checking accounts.

由於客戶在支票賬戶中看到了刺激支付和其他幫助，因此大部分改進都是通過借記卡支付的。

On a monthly basis, comparing spending to the prior year's month, April '20 was down 26% from April '19.

按月計算，與去年同期相比，20 年 4 月的支出比 19 年 4 月下降了 26%。

May was down 13% from May '19.

5 月比 19 年 5 月下降了 13%。

And as I said earlier, June returned to basically flat.

正如我之前所說，六月恢復到基本持平。

We had seen some spending leveling off on a weekly basis as COVID cases rose recently in hotspots around the country, causing municipalities or states to pause further on further phases of reopening or impose more restrictions.

我們每週都看到一些支出趨於平穩，因為最近全國熱點地區的 COVID 病例有所增加，導致市政當局或州在重新開放的進一步階段進一步暫停或施加更多限制。

But even with that, July is actually running ahead of last year and is much higher during the shutdown periods of early April and May.

但即便如此，7 月實際上比去年提前，並且在 4 月初和 5 月的停工期間要高得多。

It appears consumers are demonstrating they're quickly adapting to the environment by changing shopping habits and moving back and forth between physical and online as needed and are doing the same with delivery and takeout restaurants as restrictions change.

消費者似乎正在通過改變購物習慣以及根據需要在實體店和在線店之間來回移動來證明他們正在迅速適應環境，並且隨著限制的變化，他們也在外賣和外賣餐廳做同樣的事情。

We continue to monitor this behavior every day and accept -- and expect that there'll be starts and stops as you see the ebbs and flows of cases and people's and government's reactions to them and also until we learn to operate in this new normal.

我們每天都會繼續監控這種行為並接受——並期望隨著你看到病例的起起落落以及人們和政府對它們的反應，以及直到我們學會在這種新常態下運作，會有起起落落。

Let us go to lending activity on Page 7 -- Slide 7. Here we see that the borrowing credit shows modest growth beyond the commercial activity involving loans and paydowns.

讓我們轉到第 7 頁的貸款活動——幻燈片 7。在這裡，我們看到借貸信貸在涉及貸款和還款的商業活動之外顯示出適度的增長。

We've seen some modest recovery in some consumer lab loan applications, which all troughed in April.

我們在一些消費者實驗室貸款申請中看到了一些溫和的複蘇，這些申請都在 4 月份達到了低谷。

As you can see during the quarter, total loans declined $52 billion from the end of quarter 1, but there are several dynamics worth mentioning, including the sale of $9 billion of mortgage loans.

正如您在本季度看到的那樣，總貸款比第一季度末下降了 520 億美元，但有幾個動態值得一提，包括出售 90 億美元的抵押貸款。

Within commercial, excluding PPP activity, loans grew $5 billion year-to-date as clients paid down $62 billion of the $67 billion loan growth in quarter 1. While this isn't good for the balance sheet and loan growth, it is a good sign as many borrowers in quarter 1 accessed emergency or panic borrowing to get liquidity but has since paid those funds back or they've accessed capital markets and termed out the financing, many of which we were able to assist in helping them do.

在商業領域（不包括 PPP 活動），由於客戶支付了第一季度 670 億美元貸款增長中的 620 億美元，因此貸款今年迄今增長了 50 億美元。雖然這對資產負債表和貸款增長不利，但這是一個好消息在第一季度簽署盡可能多的借款人進入緊急或恐慌借款以獲得流動性，但此後已經償還了這些資金，或者他們已經進入資本市場並終止了融資，我們能夠幫助他們中的許多人做到這一點。

As I said earlier, revolver usage has returned to levels in our middle market business about where it was last year and is lower than those levels in our business -- banking business.

正如我之前所說，左輪手槍的使用在我們的中間市場業務中已經恢復到去年的水平，並且低於我們的業務——銀行業務中的水平。

Consumer lending shows solid residential mortgage build -- growth but a decline in credit card during the spending levels I described earlier.

消費貸款顯示出穩健的住宅抵押貸款增長——在我之前描述的支出水平期間信用卡有所增長但有所下降。

The point is there are a lot of COVID-related activity.

關鍵是有很多與 COVID 相關的活動。

But underneath that, while soft, there were some underlying demands for loans in the first half of the year.

但在此之下，雖然疲軟，但上半年存在一些潛在的貸款需求。

Mortgage apps continued to be solid despite conservative price and credit at Bank of America.

儘管美國銀行的價格和信貸保守，但抵押貸款應用程序繼續保持穩健。

We've also seen auto loan apps fight their way back to the levels they were precrisis as dealers have opened and people have bought cars.

我們還看到，隨著經銷商開業和人們購買汽車，汽車貸款應用程序正在努力恢復到危機前的水平。

And last, I would note that we continue to supply capital to these customers.

最後，我要指出，我們將繼續為這些客戶提供資金。

Our total commitments have been consistent to our commercial customers.

我們對商業客戶的總體承諾始終如一。

And they've remained above $1 trillion throughout all these periods.

在所有這些時期，它們一直保持在 1 萬億美元以上。

And year-to-date, we've approved nearly $160 billion in new and expanded commercial commitments for our customers to help them weather the storm.

年初至今，我們已經為我們的客戶批准了近 1600 億美元的新的和擴大的商業承諾，以幫助他們度過難關。

On deposits, we talk about those on Slide 8. We see an impressive client activity, and that activity has continued during the quarter across every single line of business.

關於存款，我們在幻燈片 8 上討論了存款。我們看到了令人印象深刻的客戶活動，並且該活動在本季度的每一個業務領域都在繼續。

Since the end of 2019, total deposits have risen $284 billion to more than $1.7 trillion.

自 2019 年底以來，存款總額已增加 2840 億美元，超過 1.7 萬億美元。

It is also worth noting that the disciplined pricing of rates paid moved from 44 basis points paid to the customer to 9 basis points as short rates decline.

還值得注意的是，隨著短期利率下降，已付利率的嚴格定價從支付給客戶的 44 個基點變為 9 個基點。

Consumer deposits grew $123 billion or 17%.

消費者存款增長 1230 億美元或 17%。

69% of the growth has been in checking, further cementing our position as the leading core transactional bank for American consumers.

69% 的增長用於支票，進一步鞏固了我們作為美國消費者領先的核心交易銀行的地位。

Global Banking deposits have risen $118 billion or 31%.

全球銀行存款增加了 1180 億美元或 31%。

Our Wealth Management deposits were up $29 billion or 11%.

我們的財富管理存款增加了 290 億美元或 11%。

Continue to -- customers continue to value our company as, of course, a partner.

繼續——客戶繼續將我們公司視為合作夥伴。

Importantly, in -- on Slide 9, we'll talk about this.

重要的是，在幻燈片 9 中，我們將討論這個問題。

It's the last thing I'll mention before I turn it over to Paul to go more in-depth on numbers is our clients' digital usage.

在我把它交給保羅更深入地研究數字之前，我要提到的最後一件事是我們客戶的數字使用情況。

Our customers value the year as a continuous investment in innovation as they found an ever-increasing need for our digital capabilities in the COVID environment.

我們的客戶將這一年視為對創新的持續投資，因為他們發現在 COVID 環境中對我們的數字能力的需求不斷增長。

Providing this proves once again that we are a digital bank and a physical bank.

提供這一點再次證明我們是一家數字銀行和一家實體銀行。

In consumer, there are many examples, and I'll touch on a few.

在消費者方面，有很多例子，我會談到一些。

Digital log-ins were 2.3 billion log-ins in the quarter and have increased 20% in the past 12 months.

本季度數字登錄為 23 億次，在過去 12 個月中增長了 20%。

The average log-ins per user is also up 14%, demonstrating engagement in quantity of users and depth of use by those users.

每個用戶的平均登錄次數也增加了 14%，這表明用戶參與度和這些用戶的使用深度。

More customers discover these, convenience and safety in opening accounts digitally as the number of units sold digitally increased 20% since last year, representing 47% of sales.

隨著數字化銷售的單位數量自去年以來增加了 20%，佔銷售額的 47%，越來越多的客戶發現了這些，以數字方式開設賬戶的便利性和安全性。

We added over 1 million new mobile check deposit users with a surprising 22% of those being baby boomers or seniors who have been traditionally harder to engage digitally.

我們增加了超過 100 萬新的移動支票存款用戶，其中 22% 的用戶是嬰兒潮一代或老年人，他們傳統上更難進行數字化互動。

This engagement efforts are keeping our physical centers and call centers running have our customer satisfaction running at all-times high at Bank of America.

這種參與努力使我們的實體中心和呼叫中心保持運轉，使我們的客戶滿意度在美國銀行保持空前高漲。

On the commercial side, we've seen an equally impressive growth in our users and usage as commercial users have the need for similar conveniences, whether in a work-from-home mode.

在商業方面，我們的用戶和使用量同樣顯著增長，因為商業用戶需要類似的便利，無論是在家工作模式。

And Wealth Management, in addition to convenient online banking capability and increased engagement, we utilize WebEx and other methods to have secure video conference applications to engage with our clients, which result in household growth in our Wealth Management business even during the crisis.

而財富管理方面，除了便捷的網上銀行功能和增加參與度外，我們還利用 WebEx 和其他方法擁有安全的視頻會議應用程序與客戶互動，即使在危機期間，我們的財富管理業務也實現了家庭增長。

Digital log-ins across Merrill clients were up more than 100% year-over-year.

美林客戶的數字登錄同比增長超過 100%。

And 39% of checks deposit were digitally versus less than 25% last year.

39% 的支票存款是數字化的，而去年這一比例還不到 25%。

If you look on Slide 10, this looks at the more active consumer segment.

如果您查看幻燈片 10，則可以看到更活躍的消費者細分市場。

A lot of you focus on single-purpose payment providers.

你們中的很多人都專注於單一用途的支付提供商。

I want to draw your attention to the top right chart for Zelle to illuminate how much money is moving through our customers through that system.

我想提請您注意 Zelle 的右上角圖表，以說明通過該系統通過我們的客戶轉移了多少資金。

We now have 11 million customers actively using Zelle every month, adding 3 million in just the past 12 months alone.

我們現在每月有 1100 萬客戶積極使用 Zelle，僅在過去 12 個月內就增加了 300 萬。

And you can see in the chart, we nearly doubled the volume of transactions every year for the past 4 years to now more than 117 million transactions in the quarter.

您可以在圖表中看到，在過去的 4 年中，我們每年的交易量幾乎翻了一番，現在本季度的交易量超過了 1.17 億筆。

And that volume has resulted nearly doubling the dollars used to $32 billion in transfers during this quarter.

這一數量導致本季度用於轉移的美元幾乎翻了一番，達到 320 億美元。

That's impressive gains, given the fact that total payment volumes have dropped.

鑑於總支付量已經下降，這是令人印象深刻的收益。

And Zelle is free to our industry's clients and benefits our shareholders through lower costs.

Zelle 對我們行業的客戶免費，並通過降低成本使我們的股東受益。

Above all, it's better for our customers.

最重要的是，這對我們的客戶更好。

And with that, let me turn it over to Paul.

有了這個，讓我把它交給保羅。

Thank you, Brian.

謝謝你，布賴恩。

I'm going to start on Slide 11, with the balance sheet.

我將從第 11 張幻燈片開始，從資產負債表開始。

Our balance sheet, end of the quarter, at $2.7 trillion in total assets, increasing $122 billion since the end of Q1 driven by a surge in deposits.

在本季度末，我們的資產負債表總資產為 2.7 萬億美元，在存款激增的推動下，自第一季度末以來增加了 1220 億美元。

During Q2, deposits grew by $135 billion, while loans declined by $52 billion as commercial borrowers repaid much of their lines.

在第二季度，存款增加了 1350 億美元，而貸款減少了 520 億美元，因為商業借款人償還了大部分貸款。

Excess liquidity continued to be invested predominantly in cash and cash equivalents.

過剩流動性繼續主要投資於現金和現金等價物。

Shareholders' equity increased modestly as earnings exceeded distributions to shareholders.

由於收益超過對股東的分配，股東權益溫和增加。

With respect to regulatory ratios, for the past 2 years, our CET1 ratio under the standardized approach has been binding, but this quarter, the ratio under the advanced approach is lower and, therefore, binding.

在監管比率方面，過去兩年，我們標準法下的 CET1 比率一直具有約束力，但本季度，高級法下的比率較低，因此具有約束力。

Our CET1 ratio under the standardized approach improved 80 basis points linked quarter to 11.6% primarily driven by an $86 billion decline in RWA.

我們在標準化方法下的 CET1 比率提高了 80 個基點，與季度掛鉤至 11.6%，這主要是由於 RWA 下降了 860 億美元。

This RWA decline was mainly driven by commercial loan paydowns as well as lower credit card balances.

RWA 下降的主要原因是商業貸款還款以及信用卡餘額減少。

In addition, we earlier adopted the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk, aka SA-CCR, for derivatives.

此外，我們早些時候對衍生品採用了交易對手信用風險的標準化方法，即 SA-CCR。

Our CET1 ratio under the advanced approach improved to 11.4% as RWA under advanced declined modestly.

由於高級方法下的 RWA 適度下降，我們在高級方法下的 CET1 比率提高到 11.4%。

Also this quarter, we received our preliminary stress capital buffer, or SCB, from the Federal reserve pursuant to our CCAR results.

同樣在本季度，根據我們的 CCAR 結果，我們從美聯儲收到了初步壓力資本緩衝（SCB）。

Our stress depletion was approximately 150 basis points, and including the dividend add on, our SCB was a little under 2%; however, as you know, SCBs are floored at 2.5%.

我們的壓力消耗約為 150 個基點，加上股息，我們的 SCB 略低於 2%；但是，如您所知，SCB 的最低利率為 2.5%。

So our minimum standardized and advanced CET1 requirement is 9.5% and remained unchanged.

因此，我們的最低標準化和高級 CET1 要求是 9.5%，並且保持不變。

The capital cushion above our 9.5% CET1 minimum was $28 billion at quarter end.

季度末，高於我們 9.5% CET1 最低要求的資本緩衝為 280 億美元。

The CET1 ratio under the advanced approach became our binding ratio primarily due to the impact on RWA of the migration of corporate credit risk ratings under the advanced approach.

高級法下的CET1比率成為我們的約束性比率，主要是由於高級法下企業信用風險評級遷移對風險加權資產的影響。

Our TLAC ratios increased and remained comfortably above our minimum requirements.

我們的 TLAC 比率有所增加，並保持在我們的最低要求之上。

Turning to Slide 12 and net interest income.

轉向幻燈片 12 和淨利息收入。

On a GAAP non-FTE basis, NII in Q2 was $10.8 billion, $11 billion on an FTE basis.

按 GAAP 非 FTE 計算，第二季度的 NII 為 108 億美元，按 FTE 計算為 110 億美元。

Net interest income declined $1.3 billion for both Q1 '20 as well as Q2 '19.

20 年第一季度和 19 年第二季度的淨利息收入均下降了 13 億美元。

As we noted on our Q1 call and experienced this quarter, NII fell to roughly $11 billion this quarter as variable rate assets repriced lower following a more than 100-basis-point decline in average 1-month LIBOR from Q1.

正如我們在第一季度的電話會議中所指出的以及本季度所經歷的那樣，由於浮動利率資產在第一季度平均 1 個月 LIBOR 下跌超過 100 個基點後重新定價較低，本季度 NII 跌至約 110 億美元。

Other notable NII headwinds in the quarter include roughly $300 million of higher premium amortization on our asset-backed securities, given the lower rate environment and a decline in higher-yielding credit card balances.

鑑於較低的利率環境和高收益信用卡餘額的下降，本季度其他值得注意的 NII 不利因素包括我們的資產支持證券的溢價攤銷增加約 3 億美元。

These negative impacts were partially offset by deposit growth, coupled with lower deposit pricing.

這些負面影響被存款增長以及較低的存款定價部分抵消。

The addition of PPP loans in the quarter was marginally -- it also marginally aided NII as did lower Global Markets funding costs.

本季度 PPP 貸款的增加是微不足道的——它也對 NII 有所幫助，同時降低了全球市場的融資成本。

Given the sharp decline in NII, coupled with the increase in the balance sheet driven by deposit growth, net interest yields declined notably quarter-over-quarter by 46 basis points.

鑑於 NII 急劇下降，加上存款增長推動資產負債表增加，淨利息收益率環比顯著下降 46 個基點。

Looking at the bottom-right chart, the largest driver of that decline was lower interest rates quarter-over-quarter.

從右下角的圖表來看，下降的最大驅動因素是季度環比下降。

Another large impact was the increase in deposits, which is modestly helping NII, but diluting net interest yield, given that most of the excess funding in Q2 was invested in cash or cash equivalents, earning only 10 or 15 basis points.

另一個重大影響是存款的增加，這對 NII 有一定幫助，但會稀釋淨利息收益率，因為第二季度的大部分超額資金都投資於現金或現金等價物，僅賺取 10 或 15 個基點。

We continue to assess uncertainty with respect to the duration of these deposits.

我們繼續評估這些存款期限的不確定性。

Two other elements diluted net interest yield.

另外兩個因素稀釋了淨利息收益率。

They are the higher level of premium amortization, and the lower balances of high-yielding credit cards.

它們是較高的保費攤銷水平，以及高收益信用卡的較低餘額。

In terms of forward NII guidance, we believe the largest impact from the interest rate declines occurred in Q2 as expected.

在前瞻性 NII 指引方面，我們認為利率下降的最大影響發生在第二季度，正如預期的那樣。

As we enter Q3, we face a headwind from the paydowns of commercial loans, which could reduce NII by a couple of hundred million dollars.

當我們進入第三季度時，我們面臨商業貸款償還的阻力，這可能會使 NII 減少數億美元。

And as a reminder, NII will be impacted by the long end of the curve as our securities portfolio continues to reprice lower.

提醒一下，隨著我們的證券投資組合繼續重新定價較低，NII 將受到曲線長端的影響。

Beyond Q3, NII stability, absent material changes from the economic conditions, will be dependent on asset growth and/or redeployment of deposits into higher-yielding securities rather than cash.

第三季度之後，在沒有經濟狀況發生重大變化的情況下，NII 的穩定性將取決於資產增長和/或將存款重新部署到收益更高的證券而不是現金中。

Beyond NII, as Brian mentioned, the balance and diversity of our revenue streams, combined with strong expense management, has supported pretax preprovision income despite the unprecedented decline in interest rates.

正如布賴恩所說，除了 NII，我們收入流的平衡和多樣性，加上強大的費用管理，支持了稅前預提收入，儘管利率出現了前所未有的下降。

I would also just remind you that short-term rates were near 0 in 2014 and 2015 before rates rose.

我還要提醒您，在利率上升之前，短期利率在 2014 年和 2015 年接近於 0。

In those years, we produced solid profits.

在那些年裡，我們創造了可觀的利潤。

Plus today, we have $150 billion in higher loan balances and $500 billion in higher deposit balances with -- which will benefit NII versus those periods.

再加上今天，我們有 1500 億美元的更高貸款餘額和 5000 億美元的更高存款餘額——與那些時期相比，這將使 NII 受益。

Turning to Slide 13 and expenses.

轉到幻燈片 13 和費用。

At $13.4 billion this quarter, expenses were modestly lower than Q1 '20.

本季度的支出為 134 億美元，略低於 20 年第一季度。

For 3 years now, despite investments in areas such as technology, sales professionals, marketing, philanthropy, new or renovated financial centers, expanded benefits and increased minimum wage, we have managed expenses well and have operated in a tight range of $13 billion to $13.5 billion in expense each quarter outside of the impairment charge taken in Q3 '19.

3 年來，儘管在技術、專業銷售人員、市場營銷、慈善事業、新建或翻新金融中心、擴大福利和提高最低工資等領域進行了投資，但我們仍能很好地管理開支，並在 130 億美元至 13.5 美元的狹窄範圍內運營除了 19 年第三季度的減值費用外，每個季度的費用為 10 億美元。

This quarter was no exception even with the added costs related to COVID-19.

即使增加了與 COVID-19 相關的成本，本季度也不例外。

In Q2, we estimate that COVID-related spending versus COVID-related savings netted to an increase in expense totaling $400 million.

在第二季度，我們估計與 COVID 相關的支出與與 COVID 相關的儲蓄相比，總支出增加了 4 億美元。

We will be working hard to reduce this cost as we move through this crisis while, at the same time, ensuring that our customers and employees are safe.

在度過這場危機的同時，我們將努力降低成本，同時確保我們的客戶和員工的安全。

The higher cost of COVID was mostly offset by the absence of elevated payroll tax when comparing total noninterest expense to Q1.

將總非利息費用與第一季度進行比較時，COVID 的較高成本主要被沒有提高的工資稅所抵消。

With respect to expenses beyond Q2, please note that on July 1, we began accounting for merchant services provided directly to our customers versus through a joint venture.

關於第二季度之後的費用，請注意，從 7 月 1 日起，我們開始計算直接向客戶提供的商家服務，而不是通過合資企業提供的服務。

Accordingly, again in Q3, we will record revenue and expense for these operations separately as opposed to netting them under the equity method of accounting.

因此，再次在第三季度，我們將分別記錄這些業務的收入和費用，而不是根據權益會計法對它們進行淨額計算。

As a result, we expect the expense for this business to add roughly $200 million per quarter to our expense run rate.

因此，我們預計該業務的費用每季度將增加大約 2 億美元的費用運行率。

Additional revenue for merchant services in the near term should be roughly $100 million a quarter, improving as the economy recovers and operations become even more fully integrated, driving increased value for clients.

短期內，商家服務的額外收入應約為每季度 1 億美元，隨著經濟復甦和運營變得更加全面整合而有所改善，從而推動客戶價值的增加。

We are excited to integrate merchant services into our lines of business.

我們很高興將商家服務整合到我們的業務中。

Merchant services is an important product for many of our clients, from small businesses to large multinationals, who rely on accepting credit and debit cards for significant portions of their revenue.

商戶服務是我們許多客戶的重要產品，從小型企業到大型跨國公司，他們的大部分收入都依賴接受信用卡和借記卡。

As such, it is core to transactional banking and working capital management.

因此，它是交易銀行業務和營運資金管理的核心。

Because our LOBs enjoy leading market share across both consumers and businesses, we can innovate, connect and provide services that add value across the spectrum of payment users, including offering innovations in expedited settlement, enhanced authorization, lease cost routing, liquidity management, credit, FX data, analytics and many other products.

由於我們的 LOB 在消費者和企業中均享有領先的市場份額，因此我們可以創新、連接和提供服務，為各種支付用戶增加價值，包括在加速結算、增強授權、租賃成本路由、流動性管理、信貸、外匯數據、分析和許多其他產品。

Our new proprietary platform is flexible, resilient and enables us to grow and facilitate the evolution of the payment ecosystem as the marketplace evolves.

我們新的專有平台靈活、有彈性，使我們能夠隨著市場的發展而發展和促進支付生態系統的發展。

Turning to asset quality on Slide 14.

在幻燈片 14 上轉向資產質量。

Our underwriting standards have been responsible and strong for many years now, and we expect this fact to benefit us as we advance through this health crisis.

多年來，我們的承保標準一直是負責任和強大的，我們希望這一事實能夠在我們度過這場健康危機的過程中使我們受益。

One independent indicator of the relative quality of our balance sheet is the Federal Reserve's annual CCAR stress test.

我們資產負債表相對質量的一個獨立指標是美聯儲的年度 CCAR 壓力測試。

Our net charge-off ratio under this year's stress test was once again the lowest of our peers and has been the lowest in 7 of the last 8 years.

今年壓力測試下，我們的淨沖銷率再次成為同業中最低的，並且是過去 8 年中的 7 年中最低的。

Total net charge-offs this quarter were $1.1 billion or 45 basis points of average loans.

本季度的淨沖銷總額為 11 億美元或平均貸款的 45 個基點。

Net charge-offs rose $24 million from Q1, with an uptick in commercial losses, mostly offset by lower consumer losses.

與第一季度相比，淨沖銷額增加了 2400 萬美元，商業損失增加，大部分被消費者損失減少所抵消。

Provision expense was $5.1 billion.

撥備費用為 51 億美元。

Our reserve build of $4 billion reflects a weaker economic outlook since the end of Q1, which impacted expected future losses.

我們增加 40 億美元的儲備反映了自第一季度末以來經濟前景疲軟，這影響了預期的未來損失。

While we saw increases in commercial reservable criticized exposures impacted by the virus, overall, credit thus far has been better than expected as NPLs only rose modestly versus our expectations.

雖然我們看到受病毒影響的商業可準備金受批評風險敞口有所增加，但總體而言，到目前為止，信貸一直好於預期，因為不良貸款僅比我們的預期小幅上升。

As the economy reopened, we saw lower deferral requests, better payment trends from the stressed borrowers, a slower pace of commercial downgrades towards the end of the quarter and faster payments of line draws than we anticipated.

隨著經濟重新開放，我們看到了較低的延期請求，壓力較大的借款人的付款趨勢更好，到本季度末商業降級的速度較慢，以及劃線的付款速度比我們預期的要快。

On Slide 15, we break out our credit quality metrics for both our consumer and commercial portfolios.

在幻燈片 15 上，我們打破了消費者和商業投資組合的信用質量指標。

On the consumer front, COVID effects on asset quality remained benign.

在消費者方面，新冠病毒對資產質量的影響仍然是良性的。

This is driven by deferrals extended to consumer borrowers, coupled with government stimulus for individuals and small businesses.

這是由於向消費者藉款人提供延期付款，以及政府對個人和小企業的刺激措施。

Consumer net charge-offs declined $138 million, which is partially attributable to a deferral, which should be -- which should provide a better chance of recovery with stimulus and other assistance.

消費者的淨沖銷減少了 1.38 億美元，部分原因是推遲，這應該是——這應該通過刺激和其他援助提供更好的恢復機會。

In commercial, we saw $162 million increase in net charge-offs with concentrations in commercial real estate and energy.

在商業方面，我們看到淨沖銷增加了 1.62 億美元，主要集中在商業房地產和能源領域。

Our commercial loan book, excluding small business, ended the quarter at 88% investment-grade or collateralized.

我們的商業貸款賬簿（不包括小企業）在本季度末為 88% 的投資級或抵押貸款。

One could see COVID impact more clearly in reservable criticized exposures, which increased $9 billion from Q1.

人們可以更清楚地看到 COVID 對可保留的批評風險的影響，這比第一季度增加了 90 億美元。

This increase was driven, not surprisingly, by exposures to cruise Iines, restaurants, real estate and retailing.

毫不奇怪，這一增長是由對郵輪、餐館、房地產和零售業的敞口推動的。

Turning to Slide 16.

轉到幻燈片 16。

This table provides a full picture of our allowance build since year-end 2019.

該表提供了自 2019 年底以來我們的配額增長的全貌。

As you can see, our allowance, including reserves for unfunded commitments, was $10 billion at year-end and has doubled to more than $21 billion, while our overall loan balances are relatively flat.

如您所見，我們的準備金（包括未到位承諾的準備金）在年底為 100 億美元，翻了一番，達到 210 億美元以上，而我們的整體貸款餘額相對持平。

Note that we ended Q2 with an allowance to loans and leases of 2%.

請注意，我們以 2% 的貸款和租賃準備金結束了第二季度。

I would also note that coverage ratio for credit card increased to 11%, total commercial loans increased to 1.6%, and CRE rose to 11.5% -- excuse me, 3.5%.

我還要注意到信用卡的覆蓋率增加到 11%，商業貸款總額增加到 1.6%，CRE 增加到 11.5%——對不起，是 3.5%。

These ratios reflect our loan mix with consumer concentrated and secured loans with consistent-high underwriting standards, which, for the past 10 years, has focused on high-FICO borrowers with whom we have strong relationships.

這些比率反映了我們的貸款組合與具有一致高承銷標準的消費者集中和擔保貸款，在過去的 10 年中，這些貸款一直專注於與我們有牢固關係的高 FICO 借款人。

It also reflects the investment-grade nature of our commercial portfolio with strong payment and debt service characteristics.

它還反映了我們商業投資組合的投資級性質，具有強大的支付和償債特性。

Our increase in reserves from Q1 reflect an outlook based upon the most recent economic consensus estimates.

我們從第一季度開始增加的儲備反映了基於最新經濟共識估計的前景。

In addition, we continue to include downside scenarios.

此外，我們繼續納入下行情景。

A weighting of these new scenarios produced a recessionary outlook with a deeper decline and gap to return to positive GDP.

這些新情景的加權產生了衰退前景，下降幅度更大，並且與 GDP 恢復正數之間存在差距。

It is worth noting that if one looks at the Fed's stress credit losses in the latest CCAR and just assumes that we have pushed all those losses into reserves today, our CET1 ratio would still be above 10.25% versus our minimum of 9.5%.

值得注意的是，如果在最新的 CCAR 中查看美聯儲的壓力信用損失，並假設我們今天已將所有這些損失推入準備金，我們的 CET1 比率仍將高於 10.25%，而我們的最低比率為 9.5%。

Obviously, there remain many unknowns, including how government fiscal and monetary actions will impact the outcome and how our own deferral programs will impact losses.

顯然，還有許多未知數，包括政府的財政和貨幣行動將如何影響結果，以及我們自己的延期計劃將如何影響損失。

But perhaps the biggest uncertainty is how long economic activity and conditions will be significantly impacted by the virus.

但也許最大的不確定性是經濟活動和狀況將受到病毒的顯著影響多長時間。

Okay.

好的。

Turning to the business segments and starting with Consumer Banking on Slide 17.

轉向業務部門，從幻燈片 17 上的個人銀行業務開始。

Despite the enormous financial challenges of various impacts -- COVID-related impacts, including dramatically lower rates, fee reductions, higher provision and increased expense, the business remained profitable in the quarter.

儘管各種影響帶來了巨大的財務挑戰——與 COVID 相關的影響，包括大幅降低費率、降低費用、增加撥備和增加費用，但該業務在本季度仍保持盈利。

And as Brian discussed, this health crisis has proven the value of our high-tech and high-touch strategy.

正如布賴恩所討論的，這場健康危機證明了我們高科技和高接觸戰略的價值。

The significant investments and innovation in our digital capabilities have been a valuable resource for our customers, complementing investments in our financial centers and differentiating us from peers.

我們對數字能力的重大投資和創新一直是我們客戶的寶貴資源，補充了我們對金融中心的投資，並使我們與同行區分開來。

Provision expense reflected higher expected future losses from the worsened economic conditions.

撥備費用反映了經濟狀況惡化導致的預期未來損失增加。

And note that net charge-offs in the period actually declined.

請注意，該期間的淨沖銷實際上有所下降。

So much of the financial burden of expected future losses were incurred in the first half of this year.

預計未來虧損的大部分財務負擔都發生在今年上半年。

And because of deferrals, significant charge-offs in this segment are not likely until the end of this year or later.

而且由於延期，這一領域的重大沖銷要到今年年底或更晚才可能發生。

Revenue in this business absorbed the brunt of company's NII decline as the segment has the bulk of our deposits.

由於該部門擁有我們的大部分存款，因此該業務的收入首當其沖地吸收了公司 NII 下降的影響。

And this segment also bore the brunt of the fee waivers, negatively impacting revenue.

而這部分也首當其衝受到費用減免的影響，對收入產生負面影響。

Card fees were down as a result of lower spending activity as well as fee waivers.

由於消費活動減少以及費用減免，信用卡費用下降。

Service charges were down as well due to fee waivers and fewer overdraft and related fees as a result of increased balances in customers' accounts.

由於客戶賬戶餘額增加導致費用減免以及透支和相關費用減少，服務費也有所下降。

With respect to expenses, as you know, banking is considered an essential service.

如您所知，就費用而言，銀行業務被認為是一項基本服務。

And across the country, we have managed to keep 60% of our financial centers open.

在全國范圍內，我們成功地保持了 60% 的金融中心開放。

The team worked through enormous challenges in the first half of the year to assure ongoing service, which has been a daily balance between the service our customers' need and the safety of our employees as well as customers.

該團隊在上半年克服了巨大的挑戰，以確保持續的服務，這是我們客戶需求的服務與我們員工和客戶的安全之間的日常平衡。

Our costs reflect this balancing act.

我們的成本反映了這種平衡行為。

We've added roles to service calls and managed digital interactions, not only for existing products and services, but also for small business applications to the Paycheck Protection Program.

我們為服務呼叫和託管數字交互添加了角色，不僅針對現有產品和服務，還針對薪資保護計劃的小型企業應用程序。

Many of these additional personnel work from home.

許多這些額外的人員在家工作。

We also continue to invest in the franchise.

我們還繼續投資於特許經營權。

We added salespeople in addition to the associates to handle customer calls that I have just mentioned.

除了員工之外，我們還增加了銷售人員來處理我剛才提到的客戶電話。

We renovated and added financial centers, and we increased minimum wages.

我們翻新並增加了金融中心，我們提高了最低工資。

The expense from these investments continued to be mitigated, at least in part, by process improvements, digitalization and technology improvements.

流程改進、數字化和技術改進至少部分地減少了這些投資的費用。

Client momentum continued as we saw average deposits rise $104 billion or 15% from Q2 '19.

隨著我們看到平均存款比 19 年第二季度增加 1040 億美元或 15%，客戶勢頭繼續保持。

Even more impressive was the fact that 70% of this growth was in checking accounts as clients received stimulus, delayed their tax payments and slowly are ramping up spending.

更令人印象深刻的是，70% 的增長來自支票賬戶，因為客戶收到了刺激措施，推遲了納稅，並慢慢增加了支出。

Average loans increased 8% driven by mortgage demand even in this low-rate environment.

即使在這種低利率環境下，在抵押貸款需求的推動下，平均貸款也增加了 8%。

Mortgage growth was mitigated by a decline in credit card and other consumer balances.

信用卡和其他消費者余額的下降減緩了抵押貸款的增長。

We continue to add consumer investment accounts and see strong flows into our Merrill Edge platform.

我們繼續增加消費者投資賬戶，並看到大量資金流入我們的 Merrill Edge 平台。

In Q2, we added 9% more customer investment accounts this year than last year, with more than 30% of those added digitally.

在第二季度，我們今年新增的客戶投資賬戶比去年增加了 9%，其中超過 30% 的新增賬戶是數字化的。

AUM rose 17%, driven by flows and market valuation.

在流量和市場估值的推動下，AUM 增長了 17%。

Let's skip Slide 18 and move to Wealth Management as I think we've covered most of the trends already.

讓我們跳過幻燈片 18 並轉到財富管理，因為我認為我們已經涵蓋了大部分趨勢。

So referring to Wealth Management and -- to wealth -- to Global Wealth and Investment Management on Slide 19 and 20, here again, you saw lower rates as COVID-related credit costs impact an otherwise solid quarter with good AUM flows as well as strong deposit and loan growth.

因此，在幻燈片 19 和 20 中提到財富管理以及全球財富和投資管理，您再次看到較低的利率，因為與 COVID 相關的信貸成本會影響原本穩健的季度，同時擁有良好的 AUM 流動和強勁存貸款增長。

Merrill Lynch and the private bank both continue to grow clients as we remained a provider of choice for affluent clients.

美林和私人銀行都在繼續發展客戶，因為我們仍然是富裕客戶的首選供應商。

Despite our sales force working from home, in Q2, we added nearly 6,000 net new households at Merrill Lynch and nearly 500 net new relationships in the private bank.

儘管我們的銷售人員在家工作，但在第二季度，我們在美林增加了近 6,000 個淨新家庭，並在私人銀行增加了近 500 個淨新關係。

Total client balances rose to $2.9 trillion from Q1 driven by the rebound in equity markets.

在股市反彈的推動下，客戶總餘額較第一季度上升至 2.9 萬億美元。

Compared to a year ago, they are up 1% driven by strong growth in deposits, AUM flows and loans.

與一年前相比，在存款、資產管理規模和貸款強勁增長的推動下，它們增長了 1%。

Net income of $624 million was down 42% driven by a 10% decline in revenue as well as higher provision expense.

由於收入下降 10% 以及撥備費用增加，淨收入為 6.24 億美元，下降了 42%。

The revenue decline was driven equally by the lower NII as well as fees.

收入下降同樣是由較低的 NII 和費用推動的。

Noninterest income decreased 7%, driven by lower transactional revenues and lower asset management fees driven by market valuations, partially offset by the benefit of AUM flows.

非利息收入下降了 7%，原因是交易收入下降和市場估值推動的資產管理費用下降，部分被 AUM 流動的好處所抵消。

Expenses were stable year-over-year as investments made in the past 12 months in sales professionals and technology were offset by lower revenue-related incentives and net savings associated with COVID.

由於過去 12 個月對銷售專業人員和技術的投資被較低的收入相關激勵措施和與 COVID 相關的淨節省所抵消，因此費用同比保持穩定。

Provision expense increased from reserves built for future COVID-related net charge-offs, while current net charge-offs remained low.

為未來與 COVID 相關的淨沖銷而建立的儲備增加了撥備費用，而當前的淨沖銷仍然很低。

Moving to Global Banking on Slides 21 and 22.

轉到幻燈片 21 和 22 上的全球銀行業務。

As noted earlier, Global Banking saw a strong average loan growth from Q1 line draws, record deposit levels and record investment banking fees.

如前所述，全球銀行業務從第一季度的貸款額、創紀錄的存款水平和創紀錄的投資銀行費用中看到了強勁的平均貸款增長。

But those benefits were not enough to offset the impact of lower rates and higher provision expense as a result of COVID.

但這些好處不足以抵消 COVID 導致的較低利率和較高的撥備費用的影響。

The business earned $726 million, falling $1.2 billion from Q2 '19, but this included adding $1.5 billion to the allowance for credit losses this quarter.

該業務賺取了 7.26 億美元，比 19 年第二季度減少了 12 億美元，但這包括在本季度的信貸損失準備金中增加了 15 億美元。

On a pretax preprovision basis, results improved 4% year-over-year driven by record Investment Banking results.

在稅前準備金的基礎上，在創紀錄的投資銀行業績的推動下，業績同比增長 4%。

In Q2, we were able to improve notably both our Investment Banking revenue and market share for the second straight quarter.

在第二季度，我們能夠連續第二個季度顯著提高我們的投資銀行業務收入和市場份額。

Investment Banking fees of $2.2 billion were up 57% year-over-year.

投資銀行費用為 22 億美元，同比增長 57%。

This record result included records in both investment-grade as well as equity capital markets.

這一創紀錄的結果包括投資級和股權資本市場的記錄。

While average loans were up 14% from Q2 '19, I would note that repayment of Q1 draws built significantly as the quarter progressed, which will be an headwind to NII in Q3.

雖然平均貸款比 19 年第二季度增長了 14%，但我注意到隨著季度的進展，第一季度的還款額顯著增加，這將是第三季度 NII 的逆風。

I would also note that new loan origination spreads increased quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

我還要指出，新的貸款發放利差環比和同比增加。

At the same time, we continued to see strong growth in deposits, which were up $131 billion or 36%, even as the rate paid decline following the decline in LIBOR rates.

與此同時，我們繼續看到存款強勁增長，增加了 1,310 億美元或 36%，儘管在 LIBOR 利率下降後支付的利率下降。

Rates paid are now back to levels seen at the end of 2015 just before rates began to rise.

支付的利率現在回到了 2015 年底利率開始上漲之前的水平。

Growth in Investment Banking fees, loans and deposits reflect, not only what we believe to be applied to quality, but also the addition of hundreds of bankers over the past few years, increasing and improving our client coverage.

投資銀行費用、貸款和存款的增長不僅反映了我們認為適用於質量的因素，還反映了過去幾年數百名銀行家的增加，增加和改善了我們的客戶覆蓋範圍。

Turning to digital on Slide 23 as we have already covered most of the important points around loan and deposit activity on 22.

在幻燈片 23 上轉向數字化，因為我們已經在 22 日介紹了有關貸款和存款活動的大部分要點。

As in consumer and GWIM, our digital capabilities are more important and useful than ever in this health crisis, enabling clients to work from home and seamlessly manage their treasury needs.

與消費者和 GWIM 一樣，我們的數字能力在這場健康危機中比以往任何時候都更加重要和有用，使客戶能夠在家工作並無縫管理他們的資金需求。

And it's no surprise that in this environment, we would continue to see increased use of these capabilities.

毫不奇怪，在這種環境下，我們將繼續看到這些功能的使用增加。

Switching to Global Markets on Slide 24.

在幻燈片 24 上切換到全球市場。

Our teams performed well in an unusual environment, producing the best quarter of revenue since the first quarter of 2012.

我們的團隊在不尋常的環境中表現出色，創造了自 2012 年第一季度以來最好的季度收入。

We saw the fixed income market mostly strengthen through the quarter and prices recover from Q1, with particular strength in credit products.

我們看到固定收益市場在整個季度大多走強，價格從第一季度開始回升，信貸產品尤其強勁。

As I usually do, I will talk about results excluding DVA.

像往常一樣，我將討論不包括 DVA 的結果。

This quarter, net DVA was a loss of $261 million.

本季度，淨 DVA 虧損 2.61 億美元。

Global Markets produced $2.1 billion of earnings in Q2, nearly doubling the prior year's period and increased 42% from solid Q1 results.

全球市場在第二季度創造了 21 億美元的收益，幾乎是去年同期的兩倍，並且比第一季度的穩健業績增長了 42%。

Year-over-year, revenue was up 34% from higher sales and trading results and improved Investment Banking fees, partially offset by the absence of a gain on an equity investment, which occurred in Q2 '19.

收入同比增長 34%，原因是銷售和交易業績的增長以及投資銀行費用的提高，但部分被 19 年第二季度股權投資收益的缺失所抵消。

Expenses were well controlled and flat compared to Q2 '19.

與 19 年第二季度相比，費用得到了很好的控制並且持平。

Within sales and trading -- within revenue, sales and trading improved 35% year-over-year, driven by a 50% improvement in FICC and a 7% improvement in equities.

在銷售和交易方面——在收入方面，在 FICC 增長 50% 和股票增長 7% 的推動下，銷售和交易同比增長 35%。

Compared to Q1, sales and trading revenue also improved as growth in FICC linked quarter overcame a decline in equities from a record in Q1.

與第一季度相比，銷售和交易收入也有所改善，因為 FICC 相關季度的增長克服了股票從第一季度創紀錄的下降趨勢。

Trading comparisons to Q2 '19 for FICC reflected better trading performance across all products, both macro and credit.

FICC 與 19 年第二季度的交易比較反映了所有產品（包括宏觀和信貸）的更好交易表現。

FICC results benefited from improved client flows, credit spread tightening, lower funding costs and asset prices, which rallied through the quarter.

FICC 業績受益於客戶流動改善、信貸利差收緊、融資成本降低和資產價格在本季度上漲。

Equity revenue was driven by stronger performance in cash and client financing, partially offset by a weaker performance in derivatives.

股票收入受到現金和客戶融資表現強勁的推動，但部分被衍生品表現疲軟所抵消。

On Slide 25, note the half year comparisons, which shows sales and trading up 28% year-over-year, but otherwise pretty stable over the past several years at around $7 billion.

在幻燈片 25 上，請注意半年比較，其中顯示銷售額和交易量同比增長 28%，但在過去幾年中相當穩定，約為 70 億美元。

Finally, on Slide 26, we show All Other, which reported a profit of $216 million.

最後，在幻燈片 26 上，我們展示了 All Other，它報告了 2.16 億美元的利潤。

Revenue benefited from a gain of $704 million from the sale of $9 billion in mortgage loans, which drove the improvement in revenue from Q1.

收入受益於出售 90 億美元抵押貸款帶來的 7.04 億美元收益，這推動了第一季度收入的改善。

Our effective tax rate this quarter was 7%, reflecting the 11% tax rate expected for the rest of 2020 due to the greater impact of tax credits related to tax-advantage investments on lower pretax income as well as the related adjustment to the year-to-date tax rate.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 7%，反映了 2020 年剩餘時間預計為 11% 的稅率，因為與稅收優惠投資相關的稅收抵免對較低的稅前收入以及相關調整的影響更大-迄今為止的稅率。

Okay.

好的。

With that, let's open it up for questions.

有了這個，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們將首先與 Evercore 一起前往 Glenn Schorr。

Two quick clarifications.

兩個快速澄清。

On your net interest income comments of down a couple of hundred million, I'm assuming that is off the current base?

根據您的淨利息收入下降幾億的評論，我假設這超出了當前的基礎？

And then do we stabilize from there?

然後我們會從那裡穩定下來嗎？

I heard your comments about depending on how we assess the duration of and stickiness of the deposits.

我聽到了您的評論，這取決於我們如何評估存款的持續時間和粘性。

So maybe you could talk about how do you assess the duration.

所以也許你可以談談你如何評估持續時間。

It sounds good, but I don't know how you -- if clients can help you assess that, but how do you assess the duration and stickiness of the deposits?

聽起來不錯，但我不知道您如何——如果客戶可以幫助您評估，但您如何評估存款的持續時間和粘性？

And what would you redeploy into, if you thought that they were somewhat sticky?

如果你認為它們有些粘稠，你會重新部署到什麼地方？

Yes.

是的。

So just to be clear, we're talking about a couple of hundred million off of -- from Q2 to Q3.

所以為了清楚起見，我們談論的是從第二季度到第三季度的數億美元。

I won't repeat all the current drivers of that.

我不會重複所有當前的驅動程序。

Beyond Q3, NII is really kind of -- the growth of NII is going to be dependent upon sort of asset growth and redeployment of deposits into higher-yielding securities.

在第三季度之後，NII 確實有點——NII 的增長將取決於某種資產增長和將存款重新部署到高收益證券中。

We've added $284 billion in deposits since year-end.

自年底以來，我們已經增加了 2840 億美元的存款。

All of that has gone into cash, earning 10 basis points.

所有這些都變成了現金，賺取了 10 個基點。

So as we assess the future of this pandemic, as we kind of assess how much of that is going to stick around and we get a little bit more confident on those 2 elements, that can be deployed into securities or a portion of it, let's say, can be deployed into securities.

因此，當我們評估這種流行病的未來時，當我們評估其中有多少會持續存在並且我們對這兩個可以部署到證券或部分證券中的元素更有信心時，讓我們比如說，可以部署到證券中。

And that's -- there's a big difference even in these rates between what you can earn on a mortgage-backed security or a treasury bond and 10 basis points.

這就是 - 即使在這些利率之間，您可以通過抵押貸款支持的證券或國債獲得的收益與 10 個基點之間也存在很大差異。

So there's some opportunity there, but it has to -- I think we're going to be thoughtful about it, and it's one of those things I think you know when you see it.

所以那裡有一些機會，但它必須 - 我認為我們將對此進行深思熟慮，這是我認為當你看到它時你知道的事情之一。

Got it.

知道了。

Maybe a similar question on expenses.

也許關於費用的類似問題。

The $400 million in COVID-related expense, I'm assuming that's a combination of PPP and work-from-home related things.

與 COVID 相關的 4 億美元費用，我假設這是 PPP 和在家工作相關的事情的組合。

Do -- does that roll off starting now that stick around?

做 - 從現在開始，它會持續下去嗎？

I want to get to the core number that we're adding the $200 million of merchant servicing expenses on top of.

我想得到核心數字，我們在此基礎上增加了 2 億美元的商家服務費用。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So as we said, we're sort of estimating that if you take all the increases from COVID-related spending and all the decreases, you had a net $400 million.

因此，正如我們所說，我們在某種程度上估計，如果您從與 COVID 相關的支出中獲得所有增加和所有減少，您將獲得 4 億美元的淨收益。

If you think about all those increases, it's not just PPP, there's supplemental pay, there's child care, there's masks, there's food.

如果你考慮所有這些增長，不僅僅是購買力平價，還有補充工資，還有托兒服務，還有口罩，還有食物。

There's more financial guards at our financial centers.

我們的金融中心有更多的金融衛士。

You've got all the PPP-related expenses.

你已經得到了所有與 PPP 相關的費用。

You've got all the tech expenses, moving people -- virtually all our employees moving from home -- moving to work from home.

你已經承擔了所有的技術費用，讓人們——幾乎我們所有的員工都從家裡搬家——搬到家裡去上班。

You got some offsets in sort of some travel and other employee expenses in terms of meetings, that all kind of nets down this quarter to $400 million.

在會議方面，你得到了一些差旅和其他員工費用的補償，所有這些都在本季度下降到 4 億美元。

We're going to work on that.

我們將為此努力。

I don't think you can say it's all going to go away in Q3, but we're going to work on those expenses as we move forward.

我認為你不能說這一切都會在第三季度消失，但我們將在前進的過程中處理這些費用。

But of course, we're going to make sure anything we do, we're not jeopardizing the safety of our customers and employees, so we think there's some opportunity there.

但當然，我們會確保我們所做的任何事情都不會危及客戶和員工的安全，因此我們認為那裡有一些機會。

Okay.

好的。

Last one.

最後一個。

The Wealth Management reserve build, I wonder if you could talk about the profile of those loans?

財富管理準備金的建立，請問您能否談談這些貸款的概況？

How much of that is to things like a building for a wealthy individual that that's corporation?

其中有多少是為富人建造的公司？

Just curious on what in Wealth Management would require that build.

只是好奇財富管理中需要構建什麼。

I think most of it is mortgages.

我認為大部分是抵押貸款。

And there's some commercial lending in there, but it's all very high-quality and personal wealthy people's loans and some are -- there were 30% of our mortgage originations this quarter paid at the 25th.

那裡有一些商業貸款，但都是非常高質量的個人富人貸款，有些是——本季度我們 30% 的抵押貸款在 25 日支付。

And so it's a significant mortgage book, and that picks up some and just the estimates, whether it happens or not is a separate question.

所以這是一本重要的抵押貸款書，它只收集了一些估計，不管它是否發生是一個單獨的問題。

But we feel good about that portfolio, but it's just the same factors applied to the rest of the portfolio's applied in that business.

但是我們對該產品組合感覺良好，但這與應用於該業務的其他產品組合的因素相同。

We look at things like real estate exposure, we consider real estate exposure in that business that people have buildings and things we're talking about.

我們關注房地產風險，我們考慮人們擁有建築物和我們正在談論的事物的業務中的房地產風險。

There's -- going back, Glenn, to the many years, there's no hidden sort of really an exposure on our Wealth Management business that's handled as real estate.

有 - 回溯，格倫，多年來，我們的財富管理業務沒有任何隱藏的真正風險，它被視為房地產。

Next question is from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Mayo。

Brian, you mentioned July activity is above last year.

布賴恩，你提到七月份的活動高於去年。

Is that right?

是對的嗎？

So just a little bit more color on the green shoots.

所以只是在綠芽上多一點顏色。

It seems like the trends are all in your favor.

似乎趨勢都對你有利。

But I'm just wondering if that's backward looking.

但我只是想知道這是否是向後看。

In many of your markets, like Florida, or Texas or California, I mean, that's where you're big, you're seeing an increase in COVID cases.

在你的許多市場，比如佛羅里達、德克薩斯或加利福尼亞，我的意思是，在你做大的地方，你看到 COVID 病例有所增加。

And I guess that leads to death, and that leads to shutdown.

我猜這會導致死亡，這會導致關閉。

So from an on-the-ground perspective, do you expect these green shoots to continue?

所以從實地的角度來看，你認為這些綠芽會繼續嗎？

What advice do you give the governors in those states?

您對這些州的州長有什麼建議？

How does it all shake out?

這一切是如何擺脫的？

The first advice we give to everybody is try to be safe.

我們給每個人的第一個建議是盡量安全。

The faster you can get the environment to tip over, as you've seen in some of the hotspots we talked about last April, you can see the activity pick up.

正如您在我們去年 4 月討論的一些熱點中所看到的那樣，您可以越快地讓環境翻轉，您就會看到活動開始回升。

But just to be very precise, the data through the 14th of July.

但更準確地說，是截至 7 月 14 日的數據。

So that's about as recent as you might be able to get is up over last year.

因此，這大約是您所能獲得的最新數據，超過了去年。

If you look in the first 2 weeks of July, it fell a little bit in Texas and places like that, but it's still 25% higher as an aggregate than where they were in the shutdown phase.

如果您查看 7 月的前 2 週，德克薩斯州和類似的地方會有所下降，但總體上仍比關閉階段高出 25%。

So it will plateau a little bit, Mike, I think, and you'll see that ebb and flow.

所以它會有點穩定，邁克，我想，你會看到潮起潮落。

But there are other activities that just overwhelm that what you see in terms of the bars closing stuff, just the general activities, the improvement in people's homes, spending on their homes.

但是還有其他一些活動讓你在酒吧關門方面看到的一切都不堪重負，只是一般活動，人們家庭的改善，他們的家庭支出。

And you saw some of the data today that supports that in the retail sales numbers.

你今天看到了一些支持零售銷售數據的數據。

So yes, it's flattened a little bit because it flattened in credit card.

所以是的，它有點扁平化，因為它在信用卡中扁平化了。

You'll see that more dramatically because the credit card spending that goes on in restaurants and travel and stuff.

你會更明顯地看到這一點，因為在餐館和旅行等方面的信用卡消費。

But it -- just in the last couple of weeks, it fell mid-single digit percentages, I think, in some of those in Texas and Florida, but it's still 25% compared to that week-to-week -- the weeks before the reopening.

但它——就在過去幾週，我認為，在德克薩斯州和佛羅里達州的一些人中，它的百分比下降了中個位數，但與前幾週相比，它仍然是 25%。重新開放。

That's 25% up.

那是25%。

So we'll see it play out.

所以我們會看到它發揮作用。

It's hard to be any more down to date than July 14.

很難比 7 月 14 日更過時了。

And then a separate question.

然後是一個單獨的問題。

I guess you've added more to your reserve, what, $8 billion added to your reserves the last 2 quarters, another $4 billion this quarter, pretty remarkable.

我猜你的儲備增加了更多，過去兩個季度增加了 80 億美元，本季度又增加了 40 億美元，非常了不起。

And your net charge-off ratio was flat quarter-to-quarter.

您的淨沖銷率與季度持平。

Talk about a disconnect.

談論斷開連接。

However, maybe it's not a disconnect.

但是，也許這不是斷開連接。

So I guess it's a tough question.

所以我想這是一個棘手的問題。

But what would your charge-offs be?

但是你的扣款是什麼？

What would your NPAs be if you didn't have the forbearance in place?

如果您沒有適當的寬容，您的 NPA 會是什麼？

Like if it ended tomorrow and you had to recognize the full extent of the problems, just in a sense of order of magnitude, would it be 5% higher?

就像它明天結束，你必須認識到問題的全部程度，只是在數量級上，它會高出 5% 嗎？

Or 10% higher?

還是高出 10%？

15% higher?

高出 15%？

What?

什麼？

Just to give you a simple answer.

只是給你一個簡單的答案。

If you -- and a little bit of this, Mike, will always depend on timing because if you think about credit cards, then there's a roll rate to them, as you well know.

如果你——還有一點點，邁克，總是取決於時間，因為如果你考慮信用卡，那麼它們就會有滾動率，正如你所知道的。

But just for the second quarter, I think the number would have been another $40 million higher if you took all the stuff and assume the payment behavior took place, but there was no deferral.

但就第二季度而言，如果你拿走所有的東西並假設付款行為發生了，我認為這個數字會再高出 4000 萬美元，但沒有延期。

And so that's $40 million on what, $600 million to $700 million.

所以這是 4000 萬美元，6 億到 7 億美元。

So it's something small.

所以這是一件小事。

Interesting enough, for the nondeferred customers, the delinquency quarter-to-quarter actually went down 15 or 20 basis points.

有趣的是，對於非延期客戶，拖欠率實際上每季度下降了 15 或 20 個基點。

For the nondeferred customer, excuse me, the nondeferred customers.

對於非延期客戶，對不起，非延期客戶。

So 90% of people in cards that didn't defer their delinquency went down quarter-to-quarter, and so as you think about that, it's a mixed bag.

因此，90% 的持卡人沒有推遲他們的拖欠，每季度都有所下降，所以你想想看，情況好壞參半。

The other thing that's inherent in your question is all of us getting used to CECL versus the old methods of providing, which is you provide for a lifetime, and then the losses are going to come later down the road, by definition, or else you have it as CECL provision.

您的問題中固有的另一件事是，我們所有人都習慣了 CECL 與舊的提供方法，即您提供終生的服務，然後根據定義，損失將在以後出現，否則您將其作為 CECL 條款。

So yes, we'll see the actual losses that's come in later quarters.

所以是的，我們將看到後面幾個季度的實際損失。

But you're right, right now we are seeing nothing that is consistent with an 11% unemployment rate in the actual consumer payment behavior.

但是你是對的，現在我們在實際的消費者支付行為中沒有看到任何與 11% 的失業率相一致的東西。

And that has to do with the stimulus and things that's helping that -- the margins quite substantially.

這與刺激和有助於刺激的事情有關——利潤率相當可觀。

So it's hard to predict because there's a lot of factors in it, but that's kind of the data points I'd give you to give you a sense of it.

所以很難預測，因為其中有很多因素，但這是我給你的數據點，讓你了解它。

And just last follow-up.

只是最後一次跟進。

I mean, clearly, the stock market, based on your stock price doesn't believe you.

我的意思是，很明顯，基於你的股價，股市不相信你。

They think your customers are a lot weaker.

他們認為您的客戶要弱得多。

Are we just not seeing it yet?

我們只是還沒有看到它嗎？

I mean, 2 or 3 quarters from now, you say, "Ah, it was a lot worse than we expected." Or do you think this is going to play out in that like actually the borrowers are in better shape than people realize?

我的意思是，從現在起 2 到 3 個季度，你會說，“啊，這比我們預期的要糟糕得多。”或者你認為這會像實際上借款人的狀況比人們意識到的要好一樣？

I think part of this will play out in terms of how the path forward on Phase 4 stimulus and everything occurs.

我認為這部分將在第 4 階段刺激的前進道路和一切發生方面發揮作用。

But even on the commercial side, if you look our -- the NPLs went up $350 million or something on the commercial NPLs for the quarter and 40 basis points.

但即使在商業方面，如果你看看我們的 - 不良貸款在本季度的商業不良貸款上增加了 3.5 億美元或 40 個基點。

So even on the commercial side, and we went through -- we asked our team to go through every commercial borrower in our business banking and our middle market segment, which is tens of thousands of borrowers, and assess everyone and rerate to make sure they're all up to date.

因此，即使在商業方面，我們也經歷過——我們要求我們的團隊檢查我們商業銀行業務和中間市場的每一個商業借款人，也就是成千上萬的借款人，並對每個人進行評估並重新評估，以確保他們'都是最新的。

Make sure, yes, just really go work on it when the -- they were at home and not able to do as much.

確保，是的，當他們在家並且不能做那麼多的時候，就真的去做。

And they've gone through that book.

他們已經閱讀了那本書。

And what you see criticized moved up, and that's expected.

你看到的批評上升了，這是意料之中的。

The actual nonperformers aren't.

實際的表現不佳者並非如此。

And so their -- those commercial customers are adapting, and you're seeing it, so I think the -- we basically have looked at the assessment, the provision setting methodology is, as we said, 10% unemployment year-end, 9% first half of next year, it gets down to 7.5%.

所以他們的——那些商業客戶正在適應，你也看到了，所以我認為——我們基本上已經看過評估，正如我們所說，準備金設置方法是，年底失業率為 10%，9明年上半年，下降到7.5%。

So it's not a rosy picture in a lot of ways.

所以從很多方面來說，這並不是一幅美好的畫面。

But -- and the proof is, we give all those data to the Fed, as Paul said, and they do a stress test.

但是——證據是，正如保羅所說，我們將所有這些數據都提供給了美聯儲，他們進行了壓力測試。

And under those scenarios, our losses run, I don't know, 4%, 4.7%.

在這些情況下，我們的損失會運行，我不知道，4%，4.7%。

And we're sitting with 2% reserves today, and we're not in that scenario in terms of actual payment behavior by customers or delinquencies or -- and cash, and that has to do with the stimulus is different in this crisis than it's ever been.

我們今天有 2% 的準備金，就客戶的實際支付行為或拖欠或現金而言，我們不在那種情況下，這與刺激措施有關，在這場危機中與現在不同曾經。

It was given directly to consumers to sustain their ability to carry their day-to-day expenses.

它直接提供給消費者，以維持他們承擔日常開支的能力。

Hey, Mike.

嘿，邁克。

It's obviously -- hey, Mike, it's obviously hard to see data yet, right?

很明顯——嘿，邁克，顯然還很難看到數據，對吧？

But there are some clues out there, and you can start looking at those clues across the industry.

但是那裡有一些線索，您可以開始在整個行業中查看這些線索。

And I would -- you mentioned one of them, let's just look at losses.

我會 - 你提到其中之一，讓我們看看損失。

You can look at NPL growth.

你可以看看不良貸款的增長情況。

You can look at reserve credit growth.

您可以查看儲備信貸增長。

And then as Brian just said, I mean, it's not like this is one-time where our loss ratios in the Fed stress tests have been the lowest among peers.

然後正如布賴恩剛才所說，我的意思是，這並不是我們在美聯儲壓力測試中的損失率一直是同行中最低的一次。

They've done 8 exams.

他們做了8次考試。

Every one of those exams is kind of different.

每一個考試都有所不同。

They did this thing and that one stress this thing more on that other one and change something else on the next one.

他們做了這件事，那個人在另一個人身上更強調了這件事，並在下一個人身上改變了其他事情。

7 out of 8 of them, no matter what they changed, no matter what they did, we had the lowest loss rate.

其中 8 個中有 7 個，無論他們改變了什麼，無論他們做了什麼，我們的損失率都是最低的。

So there is some evidence out there if you look carefully at it.

因此，如果您仔細觀察，就會有一些證據。

Next question is from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell。

Maybe, Brian, just a follow-up on your corporate credit comment.

也許，布賴恩，只是對您的公司信用評論的跟進。

If you look at your NPLs, you absolutely had the least amount of increase quarter-over-quarter versus your peers.

如果您查看您的 NPL，與您的同行相比，您的季度環比增幅絕對是最少的。

And I appreciate your comments that you did really a real micro as opposed to macro look at every individual loan.

我很欣賞您的評論，即您確實對每筆貸款進行了真正的微觀而非宏觀觀察。

So when we think about that, do you think it's -- your performance is more to do with the fact that you took a micro look rather than some peers maybe doing a macro look?

因此，當我們考慮到這一點時，您是否認為-您的表現更多地與您進行微觀觀察而不是某些同行可能進行宏觀觀察有關？

Or is it really just your higher exposure to investment grade, your industry mix?

或者這真的只是您對投資級別的較高敞口，您的行業組合？

And how do you think about the massive amount of capital raising in the second quarter and the liquidity that provides to corporate borrowers and how you factor that in?

您如何看待第二季度的大量融資以及為企業借款人提供的流動性以及您如何考慮這些因素？

Just -- that's it.

只是——就是這樣。

I'm not sure where it is in that sequence, but it's the latter part of it, which is that basically, it's the quality of the portfolio.

我不確定它在那個序列中的位置，但它是它的後半部分，基本上就是投資組合的質量。

So our commercial real estate exposure, as Paul said earlier, is much -- it's not going into last crisis, we had $14 billion or something of construction-related for housing.

因此，正如保羅之前所說，我們的商業房地產敞口很大——它沒有進入上一次危機，我們有 140 億美元或一些與建築相關的住房。

We have like $400 million or something like that.

我們有大約 4 億美元或類似的東西。

It's very little.

它很少。

So the kinds of exposure to get pulled on pretty quickly.

因此，這種曝光很快就會被拉上。

Remember, we took a lot of charge-offs in the first quarter for, what?

請記住，我們在第一季度進行了很多沖銷，是為了什麼？

For gas company exposure, I think a couple of hundred million, Paul.

對於天然氣公司的曝光，我認為有幾億，保羅。

And those -- yes, so we've been taking care of the portfolio.

還有那些——是的，所以我們一直在處理投資組合。

So it's not a macro-micro.

所以它不是宏觀微觀。

It's actually just the quality of what we have done in client selection across the last decade gets us there.

實際上，正是我們在過去十年中在客戶選擇方面所做的質量使我們到達了那裡。

And so -- and that's why you see differences in the rates in the stress tests and other things.

所以——這就是為什麼你在壓力測試和其他事情中看到利率差異的原因。

But that's responsible growth, and we built this company so there'd be adamantine in all times and fortress, and that's how we build it.

但這是負責任的增長，我們建立了這家公司，所以在任何時候都會有堅韌的堡壘，這就是我們建立它的方式。

And we'll see where this all goes.

我們會看到這一切的去向。

But remember that our SCB is under the floor, yet the losses -- and there's a lot of objective third-party evidence that shows, and that has a lot to do with our mix of businesses and how we build them.

但請記住，我們的 SCB 處於低位，但仍有虧損——而且有很多客觀的第三方證據表明，這與我們的業務組合以及我們如何建立它們有很大關係。

Yes.

是的。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

And then maybe on deposit growth, it continues to be, I think, surprisingly strong.

然後也許在存款增長方面，我認為它仍然出人意料地強勁。

Appreciate the comment of not sure how it holds up, and you're holding it in cash for now.

感謝您不確定它如何支撐的評論，並且您現在以現金持有它。

But when you think about -- is there any kind of trends throughout the quarter as the stimulus money got paid?

但是，當你想一想——隨著刺激資金的支付，整個季度是否有任何趨勢？

Do you see deposit growth slowing?

您是否看到存款增長放緩？

Or are you seeing it turn negative lately?

或者你最近看到它變成負面的？

How do we think about the ability for those, at least near term, what are you seeing in terms of deposits over the last month?

我們如何看待這些能力，至少在短期內，您在上個月的存款方面看到了什麼？

Well and I'll let Paul talk about this on the commercial side, especially because he used to run that business for us a long time ago before we got him to be a CFO.

好吧，我會讓保羅在商業方面談談這件事，特別是因為在我們讓他成為首席財務官之前，他很久以前就為我們經營過這項業務。

But the reality is this, the place we're uncertain is in the large cash inflows from corporate customers that you're not sure when they're going to start using the money and redeploy the money and you want them to, frankly.

但現實是這樣的，我們不確定的地方是來自企業客戶的大量現金流入，坦率地說，你不確定他們什麼時候會開始使用這筆錢並重新部署這些錢，而你希望他們這樣做。

We should want them to redeploy that money into the economy as opposed to having drawn or raise money in the markets and have it sitting on the balance sheet.

我們應該希望他們將這些資金重新部署到經濟中，而不是在市場上提取或籌集資金並將其放在資產負債表上。

So that's the real volatility question is, when do they -- when do those companies move some money out for higher yield because, yes, some of the money market has been through settling in with a little more yield to them and things like that, and the stability allows them to take -- think about putting it off a bank's balance sheet.

所以真正的波動性問題是，他們什麼時候 - 這些公司什麼時候將一些資金轉移出去以獲得更高的收益，因為，是的，一些貨幣市場已經通過給他們更多的收益以及類似的事情來安頓下來，並且穩定性允許他們採取 - 考慮將其從銀行的資產負債表中刪除。

So that's the volatility question in terms of deposits.

這就是存款方面的波動性問題。

It's around that.

就在這附近。

But when you look at consumer, just to give you a sense, the linked-quarter growth in consumer checking was $50 billion.

但是，當您查看消費者時，只是為了給您一個感覺，消費者檢查的相關季度增長為 500 億美元。

We had 180,000 net new checking accounts.

我們有 180,000 個淨新支票賬戶。

Year-over-year, up almost 900,000.

同比增長近 900,000 人。

Those are numbers that are normal quarters sort of net production.

這些是正常季度淨產量的數字。

I think we might have been 250,000 or something like that in a quarter like this.

我認為在這樣的一個季度中，我們可能會有 250,000 人或類似的人數。

And so what's happened is we still are building up that core consumer base, and the average amount in accounts are up 12%, 20%.

所以發生的事情是我們仍在建立核心消費者基礎，賬戶中的平均金額增長了 12%、20%。

Some of that's been spent down.

其中一些已經花掉了。

We think all the EIP-type stimulus is largely out of people's accounts, it's been gone through the system.

我們認為所有 EIP 類型的刺激措施大部分都來自人們的賬戶，它已經通過了系統。

Obviously, the unemployment supplements for the limited number of customers we have.

顯然，失業為我們擁有的有限數量的客戶提供了補充。

That's a small -- in any group, that's 10% of the population, so it's smaller than the whole.

那是很小的——在任何群體中，佔人口的 10%，所以它比整體要小。

But you're seeing that stimulus was -- that $1,200-type stimulus went -- came and went out of people's accounts pretty much.

但是您會看到刺激措施——那種 1,200 美元的刺激措施過去了——幾乎從人們的賬戶中來來去去。

On a small business, you're seeing the PPP, the 65% to be spent, which is also good because that's future stimulus to be deployed.

在小型企業中，您會看到 PPP，即要花費的 65%，這也很好，因為這是未來要部署的刺激措施。

And so if you think about all those pieces, I would focus more on this.

因此，如果您考慮所有這些部分，我會更加關注這一點。

Paul's comments about understanding whether this deposit are going to stick is more of a commercial question.

保羅關於理解這筆存款是否會堅持下去的評論更多的是一個商業問題。

And a large corporate question than it is a wealth management consumer question because what's going on behind this is we've ground out another even with half -- yes, 40% of our branches shut down due to the environment, we have ground out digital sales and digital growth and even nondigital growth to the tune of 180,000 new core checking accounts with average balance moving up at 92% core, and that sticks to your ribs money, and we will deploy that over time.

與財富管理消費者問題相比，這是一個更大的企業問題，因為這背後發生的事情是我們已經淘汰了另一個，即使有一半——是的，我們 40% 的分支機構由於環境而關閉，我們已經淘汰了數字銷售和數字增長，甚至非數字增長，達到 180,000 個新的核心支票賬戶，平均餘額以 92% 的核心增長，這對你來說很重要，我們將隨著時間的推移進行部署。

But you had to make sure that, like all of you are worried about where we go next, and that's why we're trying to keep the liquidity position that might run out of here for that clients' purposes or whatever.

但是你必須確保這一點，就像你們所有人都擔心我們下一步要去哪裡一樣，這就是為什麼我們試圖保持流動性頭寸，因為客戶的目的或其他原因可能會耗盡這裡的流動性頭寸。

So Paul, I think all the volatility comments were around on the institutional side.

所以保羅，我認為所有的波動性評論都在機構方面。

Yes.

是的。

I'm not sure to add anything, Brian.

我不確定要補充什麼，布賴恩。

Maybe just a macro point of obviously, if the money supply grows more, our deposit balances are going to go up.

也許只是一個宏觀點，很明顯，如果貨幣供應量增長更多，我們的存款餘額就會上升。

And you -- when you look at -- in addition, when you look at the treasuries, bank account at the Fed, it's got an enormous balance way higher than usual.

而且你——當你看——此外，當你看美國國債、美聯儲的銀行賬戶時，它的餘額比平時高得多。

And my guess is some of that's going to end up in the private sector as well.

我的猜測是其中一些最終也會進入私營部門。

So there were some -- perhaps some macro forces that would suggest that deposit balances are going to grow at banks, and we're going to get our fair share.

所以有一些——也許是一些宏觀力量表明銀行的存款餘額將會增長，我們將得到我們應得的份額。

There are a couple of little just tiny things about the third quarter that's worth reminding people.

第三季度有幾件小事值得提醒人們。

Tax payments were delayed, and they're going to get paid in the third quarter.

納稅被推遲了，他們將在第三季度得到支付。

Plus, we're all hoping, as Brian says, that spending continues to increase.

另外，正如布賴恩所說，我們都希望支出繼續增加。

And so some of that excess money that's sitting on people's accounts may get spent both in the corporate and consumer side.

因此，人們賬戶上的一些多餘資金可能會花在企業和消費者方面。

And then in GWIM, you've just got a lot of deposits came out of the market and went into deposit accounts.

然後在 GWIM 中，您剛剛有大量存款從市場流出並進入存款賬戶。

And if markets continue to feel good to people, you expect to see some of that come out of deposits and go back into the market.

如果市場繼續讓人們感覺良好，您預計會看到其中一些來自存款並重新進入市場。

Next question is from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

A couple of follow-ups there.

有幾個後續行動。

One on the points that you were making about the deposits.

一個關於你對存款的看法。

It's interesting that you had all those drawdowns and paybacks, but the deposits didn't leave yet.

有趣的是，你有所有的提款和回報，但存款還沒有離開。

That's basically what you're referring to, right?

這基本上就是你所指的，對吧？

Yes, Betsy, that's the interesting point.

是的，Betsy，這就是有趣的地方。

You'd expect if they pay them back, you would have seen it.

你會期望如果他們還錢，你會看到的。

But other cash came into those companies, and it came on the books, and I think we grabbed more than our fair share.

但是其他現金進入了這些公司，並且出現在賬簿上，我認為我們攫取的份額超過了我們應得的份額。

Nothing to do with the consumer side, but on the institutional side.

與消費者方面無關，而是在機構方面。

It's been interesting because our predictions would have been that we'd have seen the deposits decline already, and they haven't.

這很有趣，因為我們的預測是我們已經看到存款減少了，而他們沒有。

So my 2 questions.

所以我的2個問題。

One is on just the forbearance and the waivers.

一個是關於寬容和豁免。

Can you give us an update as to how you're dealing with those?

您能否向我們提供有關您如何處理這些問題的最新信息？

Do they roll off automatically?

它們會自動滾動嗎？

Are you going person-by-person?

你要一個人去嗎？

How should I be modeling this fee waiver fading?

我應該如何模擬這種費用減免的消退？

Is it going to come back?

它會回來嗎？

Do you kick it back in?

你把它踢回去嗎？

And I mean, do you stop the fee waivers in 3Q?

我的意思是，你會在第三季度停止費用減免嗎？

Or is it going to be more of a phase-in through 2021?

還是會在 2021 年之前逐步實施？

Just help us understand how you're dealing with that.

只是幫助我們了解您是如何處理的。

I think waiver side of mortgage has different aspects because of statutes and stuff.

我認為由於法規和東西的不同，抵押貸款的豁免方面有不同的方面。

The rest of the lending side stuff begins, especially like the small business, as I said earlier, it really runs off as we speak.

其餘的貸款方面的東西開始了，特別是像小企業，正如我之前所說，它真的在我們說話的時候跑掉了。

And then some of the other products run through.

然後其他一些產品通過。

We're always going to help consumers in distress.

我們總是會幫助陷入困境的消費者。

So if somebody calls up and says I'm unemployed and I can't work and stuff, we're going to work with them, and we're going to work both on the fee side and on the collection side, for the lack of a better term.

所以如果有人打電話說我失業了，我不能工作等等，我們會和他們一起工作，我們會在收費方面和收款方面工作，因為缺乏一個更好的術語。

But our view from the start was we want to have that dialogue with the consumer to help figure out where they stand.

但我們從一開始的觀點是，我們希望與消費者進行對話，以幫助弄清楚他們的立場。

And so that activity starts to pick up.

因此，這種活動開始回升。

The waivers, by definition, were 90 days and things they roll off.

根據定義，這些豁免是 90 天，並且它們會滾滾。

But in -- what you'll get away from is people who did it out of panic, which when you see somebody's paid every month, obviously, they didn't need the waiver.

但是在 - 你會遠離那些出於恐慌而這樣做的人，當你看到有人每月支付時，顯然，他們不需要放棄。

Those people roll off and disappear, and you'll get down to the people that you need to actually help.

那些人滾滾消失，你就會找到你真正需要幫助的人。

They're unemployed and struggling, and we'll help them.

他們失業了，苦苦掙扎，我們會幫助他們。

We'll work with them, like we always do in our collection efforts.

我們將與他們合作，就像我們在收集工作中一直做的那樣。

So that's the sort of credit side of the thing.

這就是事情的信用方面。

And the big numbers will move.

大數字將移動。

The numbers of requests, I said, have dropped 98%, so it's really nothing.

我說，請求的數量已經下降了 98%，所以這真的沒什麼。

If you look at our percentages relative to industry and mortgage were lower across the board 200 basis point, 150 basis points in terms of requests and stuff.

如果您查看我們相對於行業和抵押貸款的百分比，則全面降低了 200 個基點，就請求和東西而言，降低了 150 個基點。

So we feel good about that.

所以我們對此感覺很好。

When you get to the fees, this is really going to come down to this.

當你得到費用時，這真的會歸結為這一點。

We all -- we went into this thinking about it as a bit of a natural-disaster type approach process.

我們所有人 - 我們都將其視為一種自然災害類型的方法過程。

So that's going to come down to where the consumer lives, the market, the condition, what's going on in that market and whether they're able to work and things like that.

因此，這將歸結為消費者的居住地、市場、條件、該市場正在發生的事情以及他們是否能夠工作等等。

So we'll see that play out.

所以我們會看到結果。

If there's another round of stimulus payments, we waive the fees, so people wouldn't have the fees.

如果有另一輪刺激支付，我們將免除費用，這樣人們就沒有費用了。

We've held off on the fees that they had that could have been negative in their account to make sure they got the whole $1,200 in the case of last payment.

我們已經推遲了他們可能在他們的賬戶中為負數的費用，以確保他們在最後一次付款的情況下獲得全部 1,200 美元。

We will do that again because that's the right thing to do to make sure they get the benefits of that -- those payments.

我們將再次這樣做，因為這是確保他們從中受益的正確做法——那些付款。

But those things will sort of ease through the third quarter depending on really a specific question.

但這些事情將在第三季度有所緩解，具體取決於一個具體的問題。

And then as you get towards next year, they'll normalize.

然後當你接近明年時，它們會正常化。

And then as we go through this pandemic, obviously, we've got flash points building again in certain locations.

然後，當我們經歷這場大流行時，顯然，我們在某些地方再次出現了閃點。

Like you were asked earlier on the call, you've got a big footprint of branches in these locations.

就像您在電話中早些時候被問到的那樣，您在這些位置擁有大量分支機構。

So I would think that your programs are open, obviously, for folks who are coming back into that second wave.

因此，我認為您的計劃顯然是對那些重返第二波浪潮的人開放的。

Just want to confirm that.

只是想確認一下。

And then how are you thinking about the branch footprint just generally?

然後，您一般如何看待分支機構的足跡？

I mean, you mentioned earlier about opportunities to improve efficiencies to call back the $400 million net COVID cost increase that you experienced this quarter.

我的意思是，您之前提到過提高效率的機會，以收回您本季度經歷的 4 億美元的淨 COVID 成本增加。

But a little bit longer term, given the increase in digital, the fast ramp that we've seen in the most recent couple of months, does that make you think, "Hey, we can pull back on our branches even more than we had been thinking before?" Give us an update there.

但是從長遠來看，考慮到數字化的增加，我們在最近幾個月看到的快速增長，這會讓你想，“嘿，我們可以比以前更多地撤回我們的分支機構以前想過嗎？”在那裡給我們更新。

Yes.

是的。

I think the time to figure that out will be a little bit later, Betsy, not because we don't work it all the time.

我認為弄清楚這一點的時間會晚一點，Betsy，不是因為我們不是一直都在努力。

So even year-over-year, I think we're down 30 or 40 branches or something like that in terms of branch count.

因此，即使與去年同期相比，我認為我們在分支機構數量方面減少了 30 或 40 個分支機構或類似的數量。

This -- last year's second quarter or this year's second quarter, we're always working as dynamic.

這 - 去年的第二季度或今年的第二季度，我們一直在動態地工作。

They might be bigger and replace 2 or 3 small ones.

它們可能更大，可以替換 2 或 3 個小的。

They might be places that we just had too many, whatever, but we'll always be working that.

它們可能是我們擁有太多的地方，無論如何，但我們將一直在努力。

So 6,100 to 4,300 branches continue to work, and we're doing that by following customer behavior.

因此，6,100 到 4,300 家分支機構繼續工作，我們通過跟踪客戶行為來做到這一點。

So if this -- some of this behavior changes stick to the ribs, you'll see us keep fine tuning our system.

因此，如果這種行為改變中的一些堅持到了肋骨上，你會看到我們一直在微調我們的系統。

By the way, the cost of deposits now with all the operating costs in consumer over deposits actually went down year-over-year again to -- by about 7 basis points or something like that.

順便說一句，現在的存款成本加上消費者存款的所有運營成本實際上又同比下降了大約 7 個基點或類似的東西。

So we continue to manage that overall operating cost down.

因此，我們繼續降低整體運營成本。

And it's not just the branches, it's all of the call centers and all the things around it.

不僅是分支機構，還有所有呼叫中心及其周圍的所有事物。

So let us play that out.

所以讓我們發揮作用。

I don't think -- and then by the way, remember, we're deploying, and we opened branches in the middle of this thing in places in Ohio and stuff we didn't have.

我不認為 - 然後順便說一下，請記住，我們正在部署，我們在俄亥俄州的一些地方開設了分支機構以及我們沒有的東西。

And so that replaces on the account at a much different execution than something that may have been left over from years ago.

因此，與幾年前可能遺留下來的東西相比，它在賬戶上的執行方式大不相同。

So it will play out.

所以它會發揮作用。

I don't think they'll get -- they'll go one way or the other way dramatically.

我不認為他們會得到 - 他們會以一種或另一種方式戲劇性地走。

But what will happen is some of the count, we believe, will be consolidated markets as we've always been doing and deploy to markets where we don't have reach.

但我們相信，將會發生的事情將是整合市場，就像我們一直在做的那樣，並部署到我們無法觸及的市場。

I think on a given day, we're still getting 0.5 million business to the branches.

我認為在某一天，我們仍然為分支機構帶來了 50 萬筆業務。

So it is an important part of what we do, and the teammates in those branches have done incredible work being open every day during this crisis despite what was going on in the environment around them.

因此，這是我們工作的重要組成部分，儘管周圍環境發生了什麼事，但這些分支機構的隊友在這場危機期間每天都在開放，做出了令人難以置信的工作。

So I -- they will always be an important -- an incredibly important part, which makes us different.

所以我——他們將永遠是一個重要的——一個非常重要的部分，這讓我們與眾不同。

We are a big digital company and we're a big physical company, and that combination produces superior customer reach and results.

我們是一家大型數字公司，也是一家大型實體公司，這種組合產生了卓越的客戶覆蓋面和成果。

We'll go next to Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們將與德意志銀行一起去馬特奧康納旁邊。

Can you just talk about the small business PPP in terms of the timing of when you think it will be repaid or forgiven and remind us of the accounting there?

您能否就您認為何時會償還或寬恕的時間來談談小企業 PPP 並提醒我們那裡的會計？

And is that included in your net interest income outlook?

這包括在您的淨利息收入前景中嗎？

Why don't I start with the accounting?

我為什麼不從會計開始？

So the -- if you look at this quarter, there's about a little under $100 million.

所以 - 如果你看一下這個季度，大約有不到 1 億美元。

It will be a little more than that next quarter in NII for PPP.

對於 PPP 而言，這將比 NII 的下個季度多一點。

That's a function of 1% interest rate plus under FAS 91, you're going to amortize the fees into NII over the life of the loans.

這是 1% 利率加上 FAS 91 下的函數，您將在貸款期限內將費用攤銷到 NII。

In terms of the overall program, we're -- we did about 335,000 loans in a few weeks.

就整體計劃而言，我們在幾週內完成了大約 335,000 筆貸款。

That was quite expensive in terms of all that we had to do, to do that well.

就我們必須做的所有事情而言，要做到這一點，這是相當昂貴的。

And so I would not expect much, if any, profitability out of PPP.

因此，我對 PPP 的盈利能力不抱太大期望。

Okay.

好的。

And does that include the fees that you get if it's accelerated from a forbearance?

這是否包括從寬容中加速獲得的費用？

I think there were some articles out there that you're going to donate any profits.

我認為那裡有一些文章，您將捐贈任何利潤。

But obviously, there's just the focus on the revenue and, to your point, there is the cost as well, so.

但顯然，只關注收入，就您而言，還有成本，所以。

Yes.

是的。

If -- once there's forbearance, to the extent that we were amortizing the fees into NII, once a loan is forgiven, then you have to accelerate the remaining fees that haven't been amortized.

如果 - 一旦有了寬容，在某種程度上我們將費用攤銷到 NII 中，一旦貸款被免除，那麼你必須加速尚未攤銷的剩餘費用。

So it could be a spike in a quarter or 2 if we start seeing a lot of forbearance.

因此，如果我們開始看到很多寬容，它可能會在一季度或二季度內出現飆升。

But again, as you know, we've -- we said we're going to donate profits, but I wouldn't expect a lot of profits out of this program.

但是，正如你所知，我們已經 - 我們說過我們將捐贈利潤，但我不希望從這個計劃中獲得很多利潤。

335,000 loans in a quarter is probably, I don't know, I think somebody, a consumer, told me it was like 10 years of loans in small business.

一個季度可能有 335,000 筆貸款，我不知道，我想有人，一個消費者，告訴我這就像小企業的 10 年貸款。

This was a massive effort that involved people outside the company, in the company to get -- to do it well.

這是一項巨大的努力，涉及公司外部和公司內部的人員，以得到 - 把它做好。

Okay.

好的。

And then just separately, on the criticized commercial loans, it's helpful that you do disclose this.

然後單獨，關於被批評的商業貸款，你確實披露這一點是有幫助的。

I'm not sure everybody does.

我不確定每個人都這樣做。

So I appreciate that.

所以我很感激。

But how would you think about the loss content on that?

但是您如何看待其中的損失內容？

Obviously, it's a much bigger bucket than, say, nonperformers and -- are loans that you're watching.

顯然，它比不良貸款大得多，而且是您正在關注的貸款。

But how should we kind of think about the risk of loans that are kind of criticized versus, say, nonperforming?

但是，我們應該如何考慮受到批評的貸款與不良貸款的風險？

Or how much might flow into nonperforming?

或者有多少可能會流入不良行為？

Yes.

是的。

Well I'd say that, that's -- that depends on the loan.

好吧，我會說，那是 - 這取決於貸款。

They're largely secured.

他們基本上是安全的。

They're collateralized, what sort of recovery.

他們被抵押了，什麼樣的恢復。

But remember, the criticized is -- the ratings driven is a loss -- a probability to follow the loss, given default and then the collateral structure.

但請記住，受到批評的是——評級驅動是損失——在違約和抵押結構的情況下跟隨損失的可能性。

So that's all built into the reserving methodology that results in a reserve build.

因此，這一切都包含在導致儲備建立的儲備方法中。

So it's not something that you have to think of separately than NPLs.

因此，這不是您必須與 NPL 分開考慮的事情。

It's just -- there are different stages in the process of getting through the system.

只是——在通過系統的過程中有不同的階段。

But -- so it's really -- you have to say, if it's -- we -- for example, we have a lot of retailers who have gone through bankruptcy over the last several years.

但是 - 所以真的 - 你不得不說，如果是 - 我們 - 例如，我們有很多零售商在過去幾年中經歷了破產。

We haven't lost anything because of the method of securing yourself and things like that.

我們並沒有因為保護自己的方法和類似的事情而失去任何東西。

And that's -- but that's a business we've had for decades that has done a great job there.

那是——但這是我們幾十年來一直在做的一項業務，在那裡做得很好。

Whereas if it's an unsecured line and somebody, you have a follow-on -- somebody follows quickly, that can be more problematic.

而如果它是一條不安全的線路並且有人，你有一個後續 - 有人很快跟進，這可能會更有問題。

But it's -- just rest assured, it's all built into the methodology which produces the loss content, which produces the reserves, which -- in the scenarios we use.

但請放心，這一切都內置在產生損失內容的方法中，產生儲備，在我們使用的場景中。

Next question is from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies。

I had a couple of questions on the JV dissolution.

我有幾個關於合資企業解散的問題。

So just wondering, Paul, relative to your $100 million fees, first of all, where is it located, kind of where are we going to see it?

所以只是想知道，保羅，相對於你 1 億美元的費用，首先，它在哪裡，我們要去哪裡看它？

And second of all, can you help us give perspective of what it was maybe at its peak?

其次，您能否幫助我們了解一下它在巔峰時期的情況？

And you've mentioned it could get better as the economy improves.

你已經提到，隨著經濟的好轉，情況可能會好轉。

What's the best metric we can watch of your disclosures to track that progress?

我們可以觀察到您的披露以跟踪該進展的最佳指標是什麼？

A portion of that revenue is going to be in consumer.

該收入的一部分將用於消費者。

A portion of it is going to be in Global Banking.

其中一部分將用於全球銀行業務。

I -- we'd have to think about how to help you see it because it's -- it never -- certainly, on a net basis, it never was a big number in terms of net profits coming out of that JV.

我 - 我們必須考慮如何幫助你看到它，因為它 - 它從來沒有 - 當然，在淨額基礎上，就該合資企業的淨利潤而言，它從來都不是一個很大的數字。

We expect it, now that we can integrate it, do it our way, really leverage our customer relationships, put our full sales force more directly behind it and innovate.

我們期待它，現在我們可以整合它，按照我們的方式去做，真正利用我們的客戶關係，讓我們的全部銷售人員更直接地支持它並進行創新。

We think this is incredibly important to our customers, and we can grow it.

我們認為這對我們的客戶來說非常重要，我們可以發展它。

But right now, it's -- we gave you, I think we gave you some perspective.

但現在，我們給了你，我想我們給了你一些觀點。

It's about -- I would expect the revenues there to be about $100 million in the near term.

大約是 - 我預計短期內的收入約為 1 億美元。

But we would expect them to grow as we ramp up and some of our investments start to bear fruit.

但我們預計它們會隨著我們的增長而增長，我們的一些投資開始結出碩果。

And again, I don't know how to answer your question on how you can see it.

再說一次，我不知道如何回答你關於如何看到它的問題。

I have to think about that whether it's something appropriate for the supplement or not.

我必須考慮它是否適合補充。

Okay.

好的。

And just in terms of fees, other categories, wealth management, the asset management part was down.

而僅從收費、其他品類、理財方面來看，資管部分有所下降。

Was that because of the averaging effect?

是因為平均效應嗎？

And should that improve given the period-end market levels that we saw?

鑑於我們看到的期末市場水平，這種情況是否會有所改善？

Yes.

是的。

You have to remember that AUM fees are on a 1-month lag, so you're picking up there what happened at the end of the first quarter.

您必須記住，AUM 費用滯後 1 個月，因此您要了解第一季度末發生的情況。

Yes.

是的。

And lastly, just any comments about the Investment Banking pipeline, given the relative strength that we saw in the second quarter?

最後，鑑於我們在第二季度看到的相對實力，關於投資銀行管道的任何評論？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

The Investment Banking had a great, great quarter.

投資銀行有一個很棒的季度。

And we know we picked up significant market share.

而且我們知道我們獲得了可觀的市場份額。

We've been picking up significant market share for many quarters now.

許多季度以來，我們一直在搶占重要的市場份額。

I think all of you have sort of recognized that.

我想你們都已經意識到了這一點。

It was a record.

這是一個記錄。

I think our market share is above 8% at this point.

我認為我們目前的市場份額在 8% 以上。

And our market share in middle market investment banking is also rising, given our emphasis there on the bankers we add.

而且我們在中間市場投資銀行業務的市場份額也在上升，因為我們在那裡重視我們添加的銀行家。

I think we're up to -- we're over 9% there.

我認為我們達到了 - 我們在那裡超過了 9%。

A lot of activity as we help clients raise capital to address their needs.

當我們幫助客戶籌集資金以滿足他們的需求時，我們開展了大量活動。

You can't really expect -- I don't -- we don't know the answer, but we're already sort of seeing a little bit of a slowdown in activity in the first couple of weeks of this quarter.

你真的不能指望——我不知道——我們不知道答案，但我們已經看到本季度前幾週的活動有所放緩。

So I don't think you can expect that the third quarter is going to be as robust as the second quarter has been.

所以我認為你不能期望第三季度會像第二季度一樣強勁。

But what I will want to emphasize, we feel really good about the progress we have made with our clients in terms of market share, both for large companies around the world and the middle market companies.

但我要強調的是，我們對我們與客戶在市場份額方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，無論是對於世界各地的大公司還是中型市場公司。

We'll go next to Saul Martinez.

我們將在 Saul Martinez 旁邊。

I wanted to start off on NII, I want just a bit of a clarification.

我想從 NII 開始，我想澄清一下。

You said NII would be down a couple of hundred million quarter-on-quarter on commercial paydowns.

您說 NII 將在商業支付上環比下降數億美元。

You also said that long-end rates would also weigh on NII.

您還說長期利率也會對 NII 造成壓力。

Just can you give us a sense of what the order of magnitude could be in terms of additional NII pressure to the third quarter from long-end rates.

您能否讓我們了解從長期利率到第三季度的額外 NII 壓力可能有多大數量級。

I know -- I would assume that the redeployment of cash into securities is something that helped but only over a longer period of time.

我知道 - 我會假設將現金重新部署到證券中是有幫助的，但只是在更長的時間內。

And I know, Paul, in the past, we've talked about reinvestment risk and kind of sized up the impact of long-end rates on securities cash flow.

我知道，保羅，在過去，我們討論過再投資風險，並在某種程度上評估了長期利率對證券現金流的影響。

So if you can help us understand the potential impacts on third quarter, and how to think about it beyond that.

因此，如果您能幫助我們了解對第三季度的潛在影響，以及除此之外如何考慮它。

Yes, look, I will say in terms of our $200 million of current perspective being down quarter-over-quarter 2Q to 3Q, we're kind of putting all that stuff in there, right?

是的，看，我會說，就我們 2 億美元的當前前景而言，第二季度到第三季度環比下降，我們有點把所有的東西都放在那裡，對嗎？

You've got loans being potentially down.

您的貸款可能會減少。

You've got average LIBOR coming down.

你的平均 LIBOR 正在下降。

You've got the securities portfolio.

你有證券投資組合。

It's kind of all in there.

裡面都有。

Securities portfolio, about $20 billion, $25 billion matures every quarter.

證券投資組合，約 200 億美元，每季度到期 250 億美元。

And reinvestment yields right now are significantly below where that -- where the portfolio is.

現在的再投資收益率大大低於投資組合所在的位置。

So that's just going to slowly dilute over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，它會慢慢淡化。

We can offset some of that if we decide to take these deposits that are now sitting in cash and put them into securities, we can get a -- sort of a natural offset.

如果我們決定將這些現在以現金形式存放的存款並將其投入證券，我們可以抵消其中的一部分，我們可以獲得 - 一種自然的抵消。

But we have to sort of just see how that all plays out.

但我們必須看看這一切是如何發生的。

Okay.

好的。

I don't think -- I may have misunderstood.

我不認為——我可能誤解了。

I thought that you meant that, so the $200 million, a couple of hundred million is all in, not simply from the impact of commercial paydowns but from a number of things, I guess.

我以為你的意思是，所以 2 億美元，幾億美元全部投入，我猜不僅僅是商業回報的影響，還有很多事情。

The -- I guess, I wanted to go back and follow-up on Matt's question on PPP and get a little bit better sense for what the order of magnitude of the impact could be because I mean, when you have $25 billion of PPP loans, and I think it's fair to assume that a pretty sizable proportion of those will be forgiven.

- 我想，我想回去跟進馬特關於 PPP 的問題，並更好地了解影響的數量級，因為我的意思是，當你有 250 億美元的 PPP 貸款時，我認為可以公平地假設其中相當大的比例會被原諒。

And given the fee rates on those, I mean, we're not talking about small numbers, even relative to your -- the size of your NII, I mean, you get to easily over $1 billion.

考慮到這些費用，我的意思是，我們不是在談論小數字，即使是相對於你的 - 你的 NII 的規模，我的意思是，你很容易超過 10 億美元。

So I guess my first question is, why should we see a pretty significant spike in NII in 4Q and 1Q as those loans start to get forgiven and the income is recognized?

所以我想我的第一個問題是，為什麼我們會看到第四季度和第一季度的 NII 大幅飆升，因為這些貸款開始被免除並且收入得到確認？

And I guess, relatedly, on the expenses, I guess I'm trying to understand what do you mean by you're not going to make a lot of money on that.

我想，與此相關的是，關於費用，我想我試圖理解你的意思是什麼，你不會在這上面賺很多錢。

Is it just that it's sort of in the expense base already, and you've had to ratchet up expenses?

只是它已經在費用基礎上，你不得不增加費用嗎？

Or is it that as revenues are recognized from an accounting standpoint, you'll donate those accounting -- that accounting revenue away as one of your competitors is doing.

還是從會計的角度確認收入時，您將捐贈那些會計 - 作為您的競爭對手之一正在做的會計收入。

I guess I'm trying to understand the order of magnitude, timing and geography of the impact.

我想我想了解影響的數量級、時間和地理位置。

So they don't seem to be small to me.

所以它們對我來說似乎並不小。

We announced in April, I think it was, that we'd go away the net profits from this activity.

我們在 4 月份宣布，我認為是，我們將取消這項活動的淨利潤。

There's a lot of costs -- internal costs, obviously, allocation of 10,000 people we had working on the origination platform of this to the high point.

有很多成本——內部成本，很明顯，我們在這個創始平台上工作的 10,000 人的分配達到了最高點。

The forgiveness, what, we've got 3,000 people lined up to work on forgiveness that are already working on it, and we open for business in a couple of weeks.

寬恕，什麼，我們已經有 3,000 人排成一排，致力於寬恕，他們已經在努力，我們將在幾週內開始營業。

And then we had -- in part, we also had to hire third party to come and do some work and supplement us then -- and so there's a lot of elements.

然後我們 - 在某種程度上，我們還必須聘請第三方來做一些工作並補充我們 - 所以有很多元素。

So where it shows up in revenue and -- we'll deal with it.

所以它出現在收入中的地方 - 我們會處理它。

But just I -- well the revenue you're saying is not insignificant.

但只有我——你說的收入並不是微不足道的。

The issue is there's a lot of cost against it.

問題是反對它的成本很高。

Some are in the P&L and some are going to be next quarter's P&L because on the forgiveness side, we have these teammates working on it.

有些在損益表中，有些將成為下個季度的損益表，因為在寬恕方面，我們有這些隊友在努力。

So we'll reconcile it all for you, but the base of commitment was to give away the net profits.

所以我們會為你調和這一切，但承諾的基礎是放棄淨利潤。

That was something we committed in April.

這是我們在四月份承諾的事情。

This is not new news.

這不是新消息。

Okay.

好的。

But am I thinking about it right in terms of -- yes.

但我是否正確地考慮了它——是的。

Go ahead.

前進。

You're not going to see -- to your point on the revenue, you're not going to see it in the revenue until the loans start to get forgiven.

你不會看到——就收入而言，在貸款開始被免除之前，你不會在收入中看到它。

Yes, which we would assume is what, fourth quarter?

是的，我們假設是什麼，第四季度？

First quarter?

第一季度？

Or?

或者？

We don't know when it's going to be.

我們不知道它會是什麼時候。

Yes.

是的。

And by the way in Phase 4, they're talking about extending and doing more loans, and -- yes, there's a bunch of proposals.

順便說一句，在第 4 階段，他們正在討論延長和提供更多貸款，而且——是的，有很多提案。

So a little bit of this was hard to predict because if they say you can do loan A and then do another loan or extend it, that's -- even in the last quarter, we're going from 8 weeks to -- or 12 weeks to 24 weeks and things like that.

所以這有點難以預測，因為如果他們說你可以做 A 貸款，然後再做另一筆貸款或延長它，那就是 - 即使在最後一個季度，我們也會從 8 週縮短到 - 或 12 週到 24 週之類的。

So it's -- just, look, there's no mystery here.

所以它 - 只是，看，這裡沒有什麼神秘之處。

We'll just -- we just don't know until we get through it what exactly is going to happen because the rules change so much.

我們只是 - 我們只是不知道直到我們完成它到底會發生什麼，因為規則變化如此之大。

Next question is from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Brian, Paul, a question that I wanted to just clarify.

布賴恩，保羅，我想澄清一個問題。

The consumer loans that have been deferred, I'm presuming in sort of late June or early July, you started to see some of those stock to get through that deferral period, just deferrals on 90 days.

已經延期的消費貸款，我假設在 6 月底或 7 月初，你開始看到其中一些股票通過延期，只是延期 90 天。

And so what are you seeing in the ones where

所以你在那些地方看到了什麼

deferrals are done?

延期完成了嗎？

What percentage are re-upping and asking for a deferral to continue versus how many are going off?

有多少百分比正在重新增加並要求繼續延期，而有多少百分比正在關閉？

And of those going off, what are you seeing?

在那些離開的人中，你看到了什麼？

We're not -- the -- your point, Vivek, is that we're sort of -- it's now the time for that.

我們不是 - 你的觀點，Vivek，是我們有點 - 現在是時候了。

It all kind of -- the time period that most of it occurred is now in a time period where it rolls off.

這一切 - 大部分發生的時間段現在處於它滾動的時間段。

And so we'll know better.

所以我們會知道得更好。

But you separate the card, we've already seen a couple of hundred thousand roll off, and a bunch of them are rolling off as we speak.

但是你把卡片分開，我們已經看到幾十萬滾下來了，我們說話的時候還有一堆滾下來。

So that is 85% of our card, and so separate that.

所以這是我們卡的 85%，所以分開。

From the standpoint of all the other aspects, what I said earlier about small business, which is the next biggest -- which is the biggest-percentage category, yes, those are docs and dentists in there.

從所有其他方面的角度來看，我之前所說的關於小企業，這是下一個最大的 - 這是最大百分比的類別，是的，那些是那裡的醫生和牙醫。

They've all told us they're paying us, and their payments are now coming up in July and early August.

他們都告訴我們他們正在付錢給我們，現在他們的付款將在 7 月和 8 月初到來。

In terms of home loans, we're seeing the numbers on deferral drop every week because the new requests are less than people who have continued to pay.

在住房貸款方面，我們每週都看到延期付款的數量下降，因為新的請求少於繼續付款的人。

And so it's going to come down to cards, and we're in that period of time.

所以這將歸結為卡片，我們正處於那個時期。

But there are substantial reserves set up based on the credit characteristics of those individual card holders and what our expected outcome for them are.

但是，根據這些個人持卡人的信用特徵以及我們對他們的預期結果，我們設置了大量的準備金。

And as we said earlier, a lot of them -- a substantial number have been paying us every month, some haven't been paying us at all, some have been paying us partly and that all play out this quarter.

正如我們之前所說，他們中的很多人 - 很多人每個月都在向我們付款，有些人根本沒有向我們付款，有些人一直在向我們支付部分費用，所有這些都在本季度發揮作用。

When they charge-off with them, we'll be down -- as that plays out over the roll-rate type of thing.

當他們與他們沖銷時，我們會失望 - 因為這在滾動率類型的事情上發揮作用。

But it's all in the reserves today and while we say there is a decent chunk of reserves in the card business that is specifically built by these deferred loans.

但這一切都在今天的準備金中，雖然我們說信用卡業務中有相當一部分是由這些延期貸款專門建立的準備金。

What I said earlier, if you didn't hear it, was that for the second quarter, for the people who had deferred, the actual increase in charge-offs would have been about, I don't know, $30 million, $40 million on a basis to $600-and-some million, whatever it is.

我之前說過，如果你沒有聽到的話，第二季度，對於那些推遲的人來說，實際的核銷增加大約是，我不知道，3000 萬美元，4000 萬美元以 600 美元和數百萬美元為基礎，不管它是什麼。

So it wasn't a substantial difference yet.

所以這還不是一個實質性的區別。

And so those have been people that are only good enough that they were rolled and charged off during the quarter.

因此，那些人只是足夠好，以至於他們在本季度被淘汰和沖銷。

So let us see it play out.

所以讓我們看看它的發揮。

It's in the reserves.

它在儲備中。

It will be covered by the reserves.

它將由儲備金支付。

Our next question is from Brian Kleinhanzl with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brian Kleinhanzl。

Just 2 quick questions.

只需 2 個快速問題。

I mean, first, on the expenses.

我的意思是，首先，關於費用。

Just how we should be thinking about the expense trajectory as we look out to the third quarter, fourth quarter?

當我們展望第三季度、第四季度時，我們應該如何考慮費用軌跡？

I get the extra $200 million from merchant services, but then how much of these COVID-type expenses are expected to roll off into the third quarter and then that still if we get the typical seasonality as well in the back half of the year?

我從商家服務中獲得了額外的 2 億美元，但是這些 COVID 類型的費用中有多少預計將滾落到第三季度，如果我們在下半年也獲得典型的季節性，那還有多少？

Yes.

是的。

So all of those factors, I think Paul laid out earlier, but what we were reminding people is last year when we unwound the joint venture and told you about it this time last year, we said when we took it from a joint venture interest through a -- through the P&L on the balance sheet interest, it was going to increase our expenses.

所以所有這些因素，我認為保羅早先列出了，但我們提醒人們的是去年我們解散合資企業並在去年這個時候告訴你的時候，我們說當我們通過a -- 通過資產負債表上的損益表利息，這將增加我們的開支。

That $200 million, this is the quarter where it happens.

那 2 億美元，這是它發生的季度。

And so we just want to make sure people are factoring that in.

因此，我們只想確保人們將其考慮在內。

Absent that, you know that we manage expenses tightly in this company and we'll manage them down, and we'll have some pluses and minuses, and we'll work it down, but we didn't want people to forget that we told you that last year.

如果沒有這一點，你知道我們在這家公司嚴格管理費用，我們會管理它們，我們會有一些優點和缺點，我們會減少它，但我們不想讓人們忘記我們去年告訴過你。

All the rest of it will be the same sort of management practice we had.

其餘的一切都將與我們的管理實踐相同。

You have some PPP expenses come down a little bit.

你有一些 PPP 費用下降了一點。

You have -- as we've -- people have moved around, opened up a little bit, you have a little more business activity expenses.

你有 - 正如我們一樣 - 人們已經四處走動，開放了一點，你有更多的商業活動費用。

We'll see it play out.

我們會看到它發揮作用。

But then, and you have the seasonality as you mentioned.

但是，你有你提到的季節性。

And that will all be standard fare, but the key difference is we want to make sure people didn't forget what we told you last year.

這都是標準票價，但關鍵的區別是我們要確保人們不會忘記我們去年告訴你的內容。

Okay.

好的。

And then a separate one, just simple, is the tax rate guide that you gave in the second half, does that roll forward into 2021?

然後一個單獨的，很簡單，是你在下半年給出的稅率指南，它會延續到 2021 年嗎？

I don't think we have a good answer for year 2021 yet.

我認為我們對 2021 年還沒有一個好的答案。

At least I don't have an answer, but we can get back to you on that if you need it.

至少我沒有答案，但如果您需要，我們可以回复您。

But for the rest of the year, it will be around 11%.

但在今年剩下的時間裡，這一比例將在 11% 左右。

And we'll take our final question today from Charles Peabody with Portales.

今天，我們將從查爾斯·皮博迪（Charles Peabody）和 Portales 那裡回答我們的最後一個問題。

Yes.

是的。

I wanted to get some more color on your consumer and community bank and particularly the profitability of the various product lines like cards, mortgages, autos, branching.

我想為你的消費者和社區銀行增加一些色彩，特別是各種產品線的盈利能力，如信用卡、抵押貸款、汽車、分行。

And I ask that because on a relative basis, your consumer and community bank has done much better than the other big 3, Wells, JPMorgan and Citi.

我之所以這麼問，是因為相對而言，你們的消費者和社區銀行比其他三巨頭——富國銀行、摩根大通和花旗銀行做得好得多。

And I know a big part of it is probably cards, where the other businesses are losing money -- the other companies are losing money in cards.

而且我知道其中很大一部分可能是卡片，其他企業正在賠錢 - 其他公司正在賠錢。

So can you talk a little bit about the profitability of your different product lines and the relative value that they produced for you guys versus other major banks?

那麼你能談談你的不同產品線的盈利能力以及它們為你們創造的相對價值與其他主要銀行相比嗎？

I'm not sure.

我不知道。

I frankly agree with your premise that the profitability of our consumer bank is driven by the deposit business.

我坦率地同意你的前提，即我們消費銀行的盈利能力是由存款業務驅動的。

And so given that you're in the middle of a twist right now with rates falling and the floors of 0 rates in the consumer business.

因此，鑑於您現在正處於一個轉折之中，利率正在下降，消費者業務的利率最低為 0。

That -- the card, it fell this quarter, but that would be expected as you go through this twist.

那張卡片，本季度下跌了，但是當您經歷這種轉折時，這是可以預料的。

So it's been running -- the deposit segment have been running $2-billion-a-quarter type of numbers.

所以它一直在運行——存款部分一直在運行每季度 20 億美元的數字。

And if that's in the consumer lending segment would have been running even back in '19 about $1 billion a quarter.

如果這是在消費貸款領域，甚至可以追溯到 19 年，每季度大約 10 億美元。

So it's a business which is -- and that's all lending, not just the card lending.

所以這是一項業務——這都是貸款，而不僅僅是信用卡貸款。

So it's a business which is driven by the deposit business and when the rates fell this quickly and we moved rates down in the quarter, it's going to take a little while to catch back up.

因此，這是一項由存款業務推動的業務，當利率下降如此之快並且我們在本季度下調利率時，需要一段時間才能趕上。

And -- but that's -- but I'm not sure I agree with the premise and that is driven by the card business.

而且 - 但那是 - 但我不確定我是否同意這個前提，這是由卡業務驅動的。

The card business is a portion of that 1/3 of the general operating profit.

卡業務是一般營業利潤的 1/3 的一部分。

I think you're right, Brian.

我認為你是對的，布賴恩。

I think it -- the way to think about it is we started at a position of profitability before rates came down.

我認為它 - 考慮它的方式是我們在利率下降之前從盈利的位置開始。

That was stronger than many of our competitors, given the strength of our deposit franchise and given how careful we have been with respect to credit -- unsecured consumer credit.

鑑於我們的存款專營權的實力以及我們對信貸（無擔保消費信貸）的謹慎態度，這比我們的許多競爭對手都強。

You're now seeing us getting hurt on the -- because that deposit franchises and those deposits aren't as valuable in a lower-rate environment, but you're not seeing us have the same sort of potential losses in unsecured consumer because we just don't have as much as others.

你現在看到我們受到傷害——因為存款特許經營權和這些存款在低利率環境中沒有那麼有價值，但你沒有看到我們在無擔保消費者身上有同樣的潛在損失，因為我們只是沒有其他人那麼多。

Yes.

是的。

Be that as it may, the lending portion's lost money this quarter and the deposit business continue to make money this quarter.

儘管如此，貸款部分在本季度虧損，而存款業務本季度繼續賺錢。

So I'm not sure I get the starting point, but just to give you a sense.

所以我不確定我是否得到了起點，只是為了給你一個感覺。

And so there wasn't a lot of money overall, but it was made by the deposit business.

所以總體上沒有很多錢，但它是由存款業務賺來的。

I guess the starting point was that the card businesses tend to be an outsized product for the other big banks, and they're -- they clearly are losing money.

我想起點是卡業務對於其他大銀行來說往往是一個超大的產品，而他們——他們顯然正在虧損。

And so is that the big differentiation?

這就是最大的差異嗎？

Is your card business losing money this quarter as well and -- but less so than the other big businesses, other big companies?

你的信用卡業務本季度是否也在虧損——但比其他大企業、其他大公司少？

Yes.

是的。

The lending business lost money.

貸款業務虧損。

We don't -- I don't have a separate card P&L.

我們沒有——我沒有單獨的損益表。

But the lending business and consumer lost money.

但是貸款業務和消費者都賠錢了。

The deposit business made money and brought it to profit and offset $0.75 billion of losses on the lending side because of the provisions versus $0.75 billion of profit after tax.

存款業務賺錢並實現盈利，抵消了貸款方面的 7.5 億美元損失，因為這些準備金與 7.5 億美元的稅後利潤相比。

So -- but remember, what drives the profitability consumer business is the position we have across all of the products.

所以——但請記住，推動盈利能力的消費者業務是我們在所有產品中的地位。

We don't think of a lending business.

我們不考慮貸款業務。

And as we think of a customer business, that is #1 position in deposits, 92% core checking account.

當我們想到客戶業務時，即存款排名第一，核心支票賬戶佔 92%。

Checking account growth of 1 million accounts year-over-year.

支票賬戶同比增長 100 萬個。

The average balances of accounts growing year-over-year or even taking out the COVID impact, they're still growing at double digits typically in a year.

賬戶的平均餘額同比增長，甚至消除了 COVID 的影響，它們通常在一年內仍以兩位數的速度增長。

That -- the operating cost coming down year-over-year in terms of as a percentage of deposits.

那 - 就存款百分比而言，運營成本同比下降。

These are all good measures that give you a great anchor, but when -- It gets tougher when rates are very low.

這些都是很好的措施，可以給你一個很好的錨，但是當利率非常低時，它會變得更加艱難。

That's -- we played that.

那是——我們玩過那個。

I've been CEO for what, this is my 11th year and (inaudible), I think that the Fed fund rate has basically been 0 a quarter.

我擔任 CEO 的目的是什麼，這是我的第 11 年，而且（聽不清），我認為聯邦基金利率基本上每個季度都為 0。

And so that that's what we're doing.

這就是我們正在做的事情。

The card business is a nice business.

信用卡業務是一項不錯的業務。

We keep it to a size that we think is consistent with our adamantine commitment for responsible growth.

我們將其保持在我們認為符合我們對負責任增長的堅定承諾的規模。

And therefore, that it's never going to drive the P&L one way or the other way.

因此，它永遠不會以一種或另一種方式推動損益。

And the risk-adjusted margin is 8% in that business today.

如今，該業務的風險調整後利潤率為 8%。

They're in actual charge-offs.

他們在實際沖銷。

Remember what we've -- what's causing the losses is you're putting up reserves for the rest of the life of the portfolio in one quarter, given an economic scenario that's deteriorated.

記住我們所擁有的——考慮到經濟形勢惡化，造成損失的原因是你在一個季度內為投資組合的剩餘生命期存入準備金。

So it's a good -- it's a wonderful business for us.

所以這是一件好事——這對我們來說是一項了不起的業務。

It's our biggest business in terms of profit.

就利潤而言，這是我們最大的業務。

And it -- but we don't run it as a card business or as a home loan business.

而且它 - 但我們不會將其作為信用卡業務或房屋貸款業務來運營。

We got out of that many -- a decade ago, saying it is the consumer business, and we drive it on a unified basis.

我們擺脫了這麼多——十年前，說這是消費者業務，我們統一推動它。

It appears we have no further questions.

看來我們沒有其他問題了。

I'll return the floor to Brian for closing remarks.

我將把發言權交還給布賴恩以作結束髮言。

Well thank you, and thank you for spending time with us this morning.

好吧，謝謝你，謝謝你今天早上花時間和我們在一起。

It's another quarter where we've driven responsible growth.

這是我們推動負責任增長的另一個季度。

We continue to manage this company tightly, given the environment we're in, and we continue to drive the core activities forward.

鑑於我們所處的環境，我們將繼續嚴格管理這家公司，並繼續推動核心活動向前發展。

And this quarter, we're especially pleased with the work our team did in Global Markets and Investment Banking area, that gaining share and providing the earnings power to have us earn twice our dividend, build our capital, build our liquidity and have that in the worst economic quarter since the Great Depression.

本季度，我們對我們的團隊在全球市場和投資銀行領域所做的工作感到特別滿意，即獲得份額並提供盈利能力，使我們獲得兩倍的股息，建立我們的資本，建立我們的流動性並將其納入自大蕭條以來最糟糕的經濟季度。

So thank you.

所以謝謝。

We'll talk to you next time.

我們下次再談。

This will conclude today's program.

今天的節目到此結束。

Thanks for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。