波音 (BA) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Boeing Company's third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

感謝您的耐心等候。各位早安，歡迎參加波音公司 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的電話會議將被錄音。

The management discussion and slide presentation, plus the analyst question-and-answer session, are being broadcast live over the Internet. (Operator Instructions)

管理層討論與投影片簡報，以及分析師問答環節，將透過網際網路進行即時直播。(接線員指示)

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Eric Hill, Vice President of Investor Relations, for opening remarks and introductions. Mr. Hill, please go ahead.

現在我將把電話會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Eric Hill 先生，請他致開場詞並介紹與會者。Hill 先生，請開始。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Boeing's quarterly earnings call. With me today are Kelly Ortberg, Boeing's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Malave, Boeing's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This quarter's webcast, earnings release, and presentation, which include relevant disclosures and non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website.

謝謝，各位早安。歡迎參加波音的季度財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：波音總裁兼執行長 Kelly Ortberg，以及波音執行副總裁兼財務長 Jay Malave。本季的網路直播、財報新聞稿與簡報（其中包含相關揭露與非 GAAP 調節表）已公布於我們的網站。

Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings. As always, we will leave time at the end of the call for analyst questions.

今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，可能受到風險與不確定性影響，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）申報文件中所述者。一如往常，我們會在會議最後保留時間供分析師提問。

With that, I will turn the call over to Kelly Ortberg.

接下來，我把電話會議交給 Kelly Ortberg。

Well, thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining in today's call. As we enter the final months of the year, we're continuing to make progress across our businesses, having completed many of the key milestones in our 2026 plan and building on the trust we've restored with our stakeholders. Through the third quarter, we delivered 161 commercial aircraft, the most since 2018. We received FAA certification for the 737-7 in July, and the 737-10 just last week.

謝謝你，Eric，各位早安。感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。在進入今年最後幾個月之際，我們持續在各項業務上取得進展，已完成 2026 年計畫中的多項關鍵里程碑，並在我們的利害關係人之間持續建立並鞏固已恢復的信任。截至第三季，我們交付了 161 架商用飛機，為 2018 年以來最高。我們在 7 月取得 737-7 的 FAA 認證，而 737-10 則在上週剛取得認證。

We reached a new four-year agreement with Union representing our engineering and technical workforce in the Pacific Northwest avoiding any work interruption. And we secured major program awards across our defense and space portfolio, including multibillion-dollar contracts on key programs like the PAC-3 and the F-15EX.

我們與代表太平洋西北地區工程與技術人員的工會達成新的四年協議，避免任何工作中斷。同時，我們在國防與太空產品組合中取得多項重大專案得標，包括在 PAC-3 與 F-15EX 等關鍵計畫上獲得數十億美元合約。

And we scored a generational win with the US Navy when they selected Boeing to design, build, and deliver its sixth generation fighter jet, making Boeing the exclusive sixth-generation fighter company for both the US Air Force and the US Navy.

此外，我們在美國海軍方面取得世代性的重大勝利：美國海軍選擇波音負責設計、建造並交付其第六代戰鬥機，使波音成為同時為美國空軍與美國海軍提供第六代戰鬥機的唯一公司。

These accomplishments reflect the significant progress we're making and they're made possible by the sustained focus of our team on safety, quality, and performance. We know there's more work to do, and I've said before, our progress is not always going to be perfectly linear, but we continue to improve, and I'm confident we are on the right track. I'll touch on the highlights I just shared, as well as areas that require more attention in the quarters ahead, and let's start with our development programs.

這些成果反映了我們正在取得的顯著進展，而這一切得以實現，仰賴團隊對安全、品質與績效的持續專注。我們知道仍有更多工作要做；我之前也說過，我們的進展不一定總是完全線性，但我們持續改善，我有信心我們走在正確的軌道上。我將談到剛才分享的重點，以及未來幾季需要更多關注的領域；先從我們的研發計畫開始。

All year, we said that certifying our new aircraft models is one of our most important goals. The FAA certification of the 737-7 and the 737-10 represents the culmination of nearly 1,500 test flights and more than 4,000 hours of ground and flight testing.

整個年度以來，我們都表示新機型取得認證是我們最重要的目標之一。737-7 與 737-10 取得 FAA 認證，代表近 1,500 次試飛與超過 4,000 小時地面與飛行測試的成果總結。

And I want to thank our employees who worked on or supported these programs and never lost sight of our mission; and to our customers and partners, I extend my gratitude for the steadfast support and confidence in these airplanes. And we look forward to the newest members of the 737 MAX family, delivering on their promise of greater efficiency and more capability.

我也要感謝所有參與或支援這些計畫的員工，始終不忘我們的使命；同時也向我們的客戶與合作夥伴致上謝意，感謝各位對這些飛機的堅定支持與信心。我們期待 737 MAX 家族的新成員能兌現其更高效率與更強能力的承諾。

With the 737-7 and 737-10 FAA certification were complete, our focus now centered squarely on the 777-9. We continue to make progress on flight testing and still need approval to begin the balance of the flight test program, including ETOPS testing. We continue to expect first delivery in 2027 and all of our latest assumptions continue to be within the EAC we reset last year.

在 737-7 與 737-10 的 FAA 認證完成後，我們的重點現在明確轉向 777-9。我們持續推進飛行測試，但仍需要取得核准，才能開始其餘的飛行測試計畫，包括 ETOPS 測試。我們仍預期於 2027 年首次交付，而我們最新的各項假設仍維持在去年重新設定的 EAC（完工估計）範圍內。

Turning now to our commercial factories. On 737, we continue to work towards stabilizing production at 47 airplanes per month. Our factory key performance indicators are performing well particularly in the final assembly, where we've seen a 40% improvement in rework since the start of last year.

接著談我們的商用飛機工廠。在 737 方面，我們持續努力將產能穩定在每月 47 架。我們工廠的關鍵績效指標表現良好，特別是在總裝線；自去年初以來，我們看到返工量改善了 40%。

However, as I mentioned at a conference last month, it is taking us longer than we had expected to demonstrate performance at rate 47. We're making progress, but we still have more work to do, and I'm expecting it will take us into next year to get fully stable at this rate.

不過，正如我上個月在一場會議中提到的，要證明在每月 47 架的節奏下達到穩定績效，所需時間比我們原先預期更長。我們正在取得進展，但仍有更多工作要做；我預期要到明年才能在此產能水準上完全穩定。

Our output of wings is improving, but we need to demonstrate sustained performance at this level and ensure we have a high confidence plan to step up to rate 52 when the system is ready. To reach 52 aircraft per month, we have to get the North Line certified and producing our back shops, including wings, stable and ready, and fuselages in which to stable at the higher rates.

我們的機翼產出正在改善，但我們需要證明能在此水準上持續穩定表現，並確保在系統準備就緒時，我們有一套高度可信的計畫把產能提升到每月 52 架。要達到每月 52 架，我們必須讓 North Line 取得認證，並使我們的後段製程（back shops，包括機翼）穩定且準備就緒，同時也要讓機身在更高產能下維持穩定。

Taken together and integrating our learning from this year, our financial plan will target rate 52 in the back half of 2027. And as I've said many times before, it's more important that we do this ramp right than what particular month we achieve a rate break, and we'll stay disciplined here.

綜合以上並整合我們今年的學習，我們的財務計畫將以 2027 年下半年達到每月 52 架為目標。而我也多次強調，把爬坡做對比在某個特定月份達到產能門檻更重要；我們會在這方面保持紀律。

Switching now to 787, we are stable at eight aircraft per month, while the factory is performing well. While we have stability in our factory, delivery cadence has been uneven month to month due to the seat certification challenges we've discussed previously.

再來談 787：我們已穩定在每月 8 架，工廠運作表現良好。雖然工廠端已具備穩定性，但由於我們先前討論過的座椅認證挑戰，交付節奏在各月份之間仍不均勻。

We are seeing increased stability in our supply chain and closely watching engine delivery performance as it remains the pacing item for rate 10. We still expect to start the transition to 10 per month yet this year, and we're making good progress on our Charleston expansion to support even higher production rates.

我們看到供應鏈的穩定性提升，並密切關注引擎交付表現，因為它仍是提升至每月 10 架的關鍵制約因素。我們仍預期今年內開始轉換至每月 10 架，同時在查爾斯頓（Charleston）擴建方面也取得良好進展，以支援更高的產能。

Beyond the progress we're making in our factories, we're also continuing to position Boeing for the long term. That is showing up in the quality of our backlog, the demand we're seeing across the portfolio, and in the investments in program wins that position us well into the future.

除了工廠端的進展之外，我們也持續為波音的長期發展布局。這反映在我們訂單積壓（backlog）的品質、我們在整體產品組合中看到的需求，以及我們對得標專案所做的投資，讓我們在未來具備良好定位。

Last month, we achieved a transformational win that will shape the company for decades to come when the US Navy selected Boeing as the winner of the F/A-XX competition. To be selected for another sixth-generation fighter program is a testament to our innovation, our team and trust we've built with our customers. It is a true honor to support the national security priorities and a responsibility we take very seriously.

上個月，我們取得一項具變革性的勝利，將在未來數十年形塑公司：美國海軍選擇波音成為 F/A-XX 競標案的得標者。能再度獲選另一個第六代戰鬥機計畫，證明了我們的創新能力、我們的團隊，以及我們與客戶建立的信任。能夠支持國家安全優先事項是一項真正的榮譽，而這也是我們極為嚴肅看待的責任。

In addition to F/A-XX, we continue to see strong demand for proven franchises across our defense and space portfolio. Boeing received a seven-year contract to accelerate and eventually triple the PAC-3 seeker production, supported by our early investments in facilities, workforce, and supply chain.

除了 F/A-XX 之外，我們也持續看到國防與太空產品組合中各項成熟主力平台的強勁需求。波音獲得一份為期七年的合約，用以加速並最終將 PAC-3 導引頭（seeker）產量提升至三倍；這得益於我們先前在設施、人力與供應鏈方面的前期投資。

In the quarter, we also received a contract to manufacture 22 more F-15EX aircraft for the US Air Force. And this award brings the total number of aircraft under contract to 120 with the potential for additional upside as the F-15EX continues to demonstrate the value of its unmatched payload and range capability.

本季我們也獲得一份合約，為美國空軍再製造22架F-15EX戰機。此項得標使合約在手的飛機總數達到120架，且隨著F-15EX持續展現其無可匹敵的載彈量與航程能力價值，未來仍有進一步上行空間。

Beyond new franchise wins, we also continue to see tangible benefits from the active management approach that we've talked about. As I said last quarter, Starliner was a program where we still had work to do with the customer.

除了贏得新的主力產品線訂單外，我們也持續看到我們先前談到的主動式管理方法帶來的具體效益。如我在上季所說，Starliner是一個我們仍需與客戶持續推進工作的專案。

We've since worked with NASA on a path forward to support future flights while reducing our program risk, including $359 million of additional NASA funding. Taken together, these are the kinds of actions and outcomes that will support our customers, strengthen Boeing, and position us well for the future.

此後我們已與NASA就支持未來飛行、同時降低專案風險的前進路徑展開合作，其中包括NASA額外提供的3.59億美元資金。綜合而言，這些行動與成果將支持我們的客戶、強化波音，並讓我們為未來做好更佳布局。

That long-term position is also beginning to give us greater visibility into the financial path forward. As I mentioned, over the last two years, we've made exceptional progress restoring trust, retiring risk, and transforming our culture and rebuilding the foundation of safety and quality that will help ensure durable success.

這樣的長期布局也開始讓我們對未來的財務路徑有更高的能見度。如我所提，過去兩年我們在重建信任、消除風險、轉型企業文化，以及重建安全與品質的基礎方面取得了卓越進展，這將有助於確保長期且可持續的成功。

We have also been deliberate about not getting ahead of ourselves given the range of outcomes tied to the production ramp, certification timing, and other critical program execution. But we appreciate that it's been difficult for shareowners to assess how our progress will translate into financial performance.

鑑於產能爬坡、認證時程以及其他關鍵專案執行所帶來的各種可能結果，我們也刻意避免操之過急。但我們理解，股東一直很難評估我們的進展將如何轉化為財務表現。

We're now at a point where the range of outcomes is narrowing. As we look ahead, our outlook is supported by a record backlog of $745 billion with improved pricing dynamics, a more stable production system, and better underwriting on development programs and our plans for continued progress on aircraft certification. Taken together, those factors give us confidence to share a multiyear free cash flow target for the business.

我們現在已來到結果區間逐步收斂的階段。展望未來，我們的前景受到7,450億美元創紀錄在手訂單的支撐，並伴隨更佳的定價動能、更穩定的生產系統、對研發專案更完善的承保評估，以及我們在飛機認證方面持續推進的計畫。綜合這些因素，我們有信心對外分享公司未來數年的自由現金流目標。

We've narrowed our range and expect to generate approximately $2 billion of free cash flow in 2026. I'm expecting that that will improve to about $3 billion in 2027, inclusive of the additional CapEx to support the F/A-XX development.

我們已縮小區間，預期在2026年產生約20億美元的自由現金流。我預期2027年將提升至約30億美元，其中已包含為支持F/A-XX研發所需的額外資本支出（CapEx）。

We believe this should improve to about $6 billion in 2028, as we start to burn off some of the headwinds and accelerate from there. And I expect to achieve the $10 billion target in 2029. Jay will provide further color on the elements driving this trajectory in his remarks, but it's important to highlight, we continue to see significant growth potential beyond the $10 billion, in line with our prior comments.

我們認為2028年可進一步提升至約60億美元，因為我們將開始消化部分逆風因素並加速成長。我預期在2029年達成100億美元的目標。Jay將在他的發言中進一步說明推動此一軌跡的各項要素；但重要的是要強調，依照我們先前的評論，我們仍看到超越100億美元的顯著成長潛力。

So to sum it up, we remain well positioned for the long term. I'm pleased with our progress we've made so far. We've come a long way, but we're entering a new phase and the bar is higher now, as it should be. Our job is to keep raising our performance to meet higher expectations while always prioritizing safety, quality, and stability. I'm confident we'll get there because we're doing the right work and taking the right actions to build more durable, dependable performance over time.

總結來說，我們在長期仍具備良好定位。我對目前取得的進展感到欣慰。我們已走過很長一段路，但我們正進入新階段，而標準也更高——這本就應該如此。我們的工作是在始終把安全、品質與穩定放在首位的前提下，持續提升績效以符合更高的期待。我有信心我們會達成，因為我們正在做正確的工作並採取正確的行動，隨時間建立更持久、可靠的表現。

So before I close, I want to thank all of our employees for the work they're doing every day to move Boeing forward.

在結束之前，我要感謝所有員工每天所做的努力，推動波音持續向前。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Jay to discuss our financial results in more detail before we move to question and answer.

接下來我把時間交給Jay，在進入問答之前更詳細說明我們的財務結果。

Thanks, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Starting with consolidated financial results for the quarter. Revenue of $24.2 billion was up 4%, primarily driven by higher defense and services volume, partially offset by less favorable commercial delivery mix in the quarter. Operating margin improved to 1.5% and core earnings per share improved to a loss of $0.34, reflecting higher segment earnings and lower corporate expenses.

謝謝你，Kelly，各位早安。先從本季合併財務結果談起。營收242億美元，年增4%，主要由國防與服務業務量增加所帶動，但部分被本季商用交付組合較不利所抵銷。營業利益率改善至1.5%，核心每股盈餘改善至虧損0.34美元，反映各事業部獲利提升以及公司層級費用降低。

Free cash flow was positive $464 million in the quarter, an improvement versus the prior year, driven by improved working capital, partially offset by the Department of Justice settlement payments of approximately $700 million and planned CapEx for our investments to expand capacity in Charleston and St. Louis.

本季自由現金流為正4.64億美元，較去年同期改善，主要受惠於營運資金改善；但部分被約7億美元的司法部和解金支付，以及為擴充查爾斯頓與聖路易斯產能投資所規劃的資本支出（CapEx）所抵銷。

Turning to BCA on the next page. BCA delivered 161 airplanes in the quarter. Revenue was $10.7 billion, down 3% year over year, driven primarily by less favorable delivery mix. Operating margin of negative 6.5% improved materially versus the prior year's results which were impacted by the 777X charge. That improvement was partially offset by a reduction in booking rates associated with production rate adjustments and higher estimated supply chain costs.

接著看下一頁的BCA（波音商用飛機）。BCA本季交付161架飛機。營收107億美元，年減3%，主要因交付組合較不利所致。營業利益率為負6.5%，相較去年同期顯著改善；去年結果受到777X一次性費用影響。該改善部分被與產量調整相關的接單率下降，以及供應鏈成本估計上升所抵銷。

Backlog at BCA increased again to a new record level of $612 billion. It includes over 6,300 airplanes. This includes orders during the quarter from Turkish Airlines, Ethiopian Airlines, and Lufthansa.

BCA在手訂單再次增加，創下6,120億美元的新高。其中包含超過6,300架飛機。本季訂單包括來自土耳其航空、衣索比亞航空與漢莎航空的訂購。

Clicking down on commercial program performance. Starting with the 737, we delivered 124 airplanes in the quarter. As we close out the year, the delay and stability at 47 per month is expected to translate to the lower delivery output and come in shy of the 500 delivery target. Let me remind you that we've built 737-7 and 737-10 aircraft prior to certification that will start delivering early next year.

進一步看商用機型專案表現。先看737，本季交付124架。隨著今年接近尾聲，每月47架的延遲與穩定狀態預期將反映為較低的交付產出，並將低於500架的交付目標。提醒各位，我們在取得認證前已先行生產737-7與737-10，預計明年初開始交付。

Going forward, we expect longer intervals between rate steps, the higher we go, which is more in line with our historical demonstrated performance. That said, our team has detailed plans for what is required to get to higher rates, and we continue to make investments to create more capacity and resiliency in our production system that will enable stronger performance at higher levels with a consistent focus on safety and quality.

展望未來，我們預期隨著產量提升，調升產率的步階之間間隔會更長，這更符合我們過往已證明的歷史表現。即便如此，我們的團隊已針對達到更高產率所需條件制定了詳細計畫；我們也持續投資以提升產能並強化生產系統韌性，使我們在更高水準下仍能在持續聚焦安全與品質的前提下，展現更強的表現。

On the 787, we delivered 22 airplanes in the quarter. We continue to expect to deliver 90 to 100 airplanes in the year, but expect it to be closer to the lower end, given the delays in getting to rate 10. In Charleston, our factory expansion is underway, and we expect the majority of the capability to come online late next year.

在787方面，本季交付22架。我們仍預期全年交付90至100架，但由於達到每月10架產率的進度延遲，預期將更接近區間下緣。在查爾斯頓，我們的工廠擴建正在進行中，預期大部分產能將於明年年底上線。

In addition to the two lines in our current footprint, our second final assembly building will add a third line that increases capacity, flexibility, and resiliency in our production system. On the current 777 metal-wing freighter, we received FAA approval for incremental production of up to 35 units, further extending the most popular dedicated freighter of all time.

除了現有廠區內的兩條產線外，我們第二座總裝廠房將新增第三條產線，提升生產系統的產能、彈性與韌性。在現行777金屬翼貨機方面，我們已獲FAA核准可逐步增產至最多35架，進一步延續史上最受歡迎的專用貨機機型。

During the quarter, our 777 freighter and 767 tanker production lines were disrupted by a supplier of wing components. Shipments from that supplier have resumed. However, there will be a gap in our production system that gradually flows through these production lines over the next few quarters. The cost of that disruption was not material in the third quarter, but will be treated as abnormal costs and period expense over the next few quarters.

本季期間，我們的777貨機與767加油機產線受到一家具翼部零組件供應商的影響而中斷。該供應商的出貨已恢復。然而，未來幾季我們的生產系統仍將出現缺口，並逐步傳導至這些產線。第三季該中斷造成的成本影響並不重大，但在未來幾季將以異常成本並作為期間費用處理。

Finally, on 777X, as Kelly mentioned, we remain on track for first delivery in 2027. As we get closer to certification, we have firmed up our production and delivery plan. We are currently producing airplanes at a rate of approximately one per month, and expect to stay at that level for most of 2027. These latest assumptions are within our EAC.

最後，關於 777X，如 Kelly 所提到的，我們仍按計畫在 2027 年進行首架交付。隨著我們更接近取證，我們已進一步確定生產與交付計畫。我們目前以約每月一架的速度生產飛機，並預期在 2027 年的大部分時間維持在該水準。這些最新假設均在我們的 EAC 範圍內。

With respect to program cash flow, we continue to expect 2027 to be a significant use of cash with 2028 improving before turning positive in 2029. Like the rest of our programs, we are prioritizing safety, quality, and stability as we ramp this new production system and work towards a delivery schedule that our customers can reliably plan for.

就專案現金流而言，我們仍預期 2027 年將是顯著的現金使用年度，2028 年將改善，並在 2029 年轉為正值。與我們其他專案一樣，在擴增這套新的生產系統並朝向客戶可可靠規劃的交付時程推進的同時，我們將安全、品質與穩定性列為優先事項。

Okay, let's shift over to BDS on the next page. BDS delivered 30 aircraft and three satellites in the quarter. Revenue increased 15% to $7.9 billion, driven primarily by higher volume, including growth on classified programs and missiles and weapons. Spirit contributed approximately $160 million of sales in the quarter or 2 points of growth.

好的，讓我們翻到下一頁，轉到 BDS。BDS 本季交付了 30 架飛機與 3 顆衛星。營收成長 15% 至 79 億美元，主要由更高的出貨量帶動，包括機密專案以及飛彈與武器業務的成長。Spirit 本季貢獻約 1.6 億美元銷售額，約帶來 2 個百分點的成長。

BDS operating margin was 6.2% in the quarter and includes a $252 million gain on the sale of HRL laboratories. Across the BDS portfolio, we continue to see operating performance gains in line with our expectations of steady margin improvement, and we remain confident in our path to high single-digit operating margins by the end of the decade.

BDS 本季營業利益率為 6.2%，其中包含出售 HRL Laboratories 所帶來的 2.52 億美元收益。在 BDS 的整體投資組合中，我們持續看到營運表現的提升，符合我們對利益率穩步改善的預期；我們仍有信心在本十年末達成高個位數的營業利益率目標。

BDS booked $23 billion in orders during the quarter with record backlog of $101 billion, and we remain committed to our strategy of entering into appropriate contract structures on new business. Importantly, in the quarter, BDS was selected by the US Navy to design, build, and deliver the F/A-XX next-generation fighter aircraft. This order was not included in our third quarter backlog pending completion of the source selection and evaluation process.

BDS 本季取得 230 億美元訂單，積壓訂單創新高達 1,010 億美元；我們仍致力於在新業務上採用適當的合約結構。重要的是，本季 BDS 獲美國海軍選定，負責設計、建造並交付 F/A-XX 下一代戰鬥機。由於尚待完成來源選擇與評估流程，該訂單未納入我們第三季的積壓訂單。

Now moving to Global Services on the next page. BGS sustained its momentum and delivered another quarter of strong financial performance. Revenue was up 4% to $5.6 billion. Excluding the impact of the Digital Aviation Solutions divestiture, revenue was up 11% from prior year, primarily driven by government and commercial modifications volume.

接著翻到下一頁，來看全球服務業務。BGS 延續動能，再度交出一季強勁的財務表現。營收成長 4% 至 56 億美元。若排除數位航空解決方案（Digital Aviation Solutions）處分的影響，營收較去年同期成長 11%，主要由政府與商用改裝業務量帶動。

Operating margin of 18.3% was up from prior year. Unfavorable volume and mix, partially offset by the divestiture last year. Both commercial and government businesses delivered double-digit margins in the quarter.

營業利益率為 18.3%，較去年同期上升。不利的出貨量與產品組合影響，部分被去年處分所抵銷。本季商用與政府業務皆繳出雙位數利益率。

Operationally, the BGS team continues to demonstrate process improvements across the business. For example, on the C-17 heavy maintenance program, we continue to perform work at record low rework levels while taking on greater scope of work for our customer, supporting revenue growth and margin performance. BGS received $5 billion of orders and ended the quarter with a backlog of $33 billion.

在營運面，BGS 團隊持續展現全業務流程改善。例如在 C-17 重型維修專案上，我們在返工水準創歷史新低的同時，為客戶承接更大的工作範疇，支撐營收成長與利益率表現。BGS 本季取得 50 億美元訂單，季末積壓訂單為 330 億美元。

Shifting over to cash and debt. Cash and marketable securities ended at $20.7 billion, primarily reflecting cash flow generated in the quarter. But that balance was unchanged from the prior quarter at $45.9 billion. We continue to maintain access to $10 billion of revolving credit facilities, all of which remain undrawn, and we remain committed to strengthening the balance sheet and supporting our investment-grade rating.

接著談現金與負債。現金與有價證券期末為 207 億美元，主要反映本季所產生的現金流。但該餘額與前一季持平，為 459 億美元。我們仍可動用 100 億美元的循環信用額度，且目前全數未動用；我們也持續致力於強化資產負債表並支持我們的投資級評等。

Now, let me provide some additional context on our free cash flow outlook and targets. First, as Kelly noted, we have narrowed our prior range and expect to deliver approximately $2 billion of free cash flow in 2026. This includes the assumption of the KC-46A Tanker Lot 13 order in advance as well as other seasonal working capital benefits in the quarter.

現在，我再補充一些關於我們自由現金流展望與目標的背景說明。首先，如 Kelly 所提到的，我們已收斂先前的區間，並預期在 2026 年實現約 20 億美元的自由現金流。其中包含對 KC-46A 加油機第 13 批次（Lot 13）訂單提前納入的假設，以及本季其他季節性的營運資金效益。

As Kelly said, we have increased clarity into our medium-term financial plan. In 2027, we expect to generate approximately $3 billion of free cash flow, followed by approximately $6 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029 with significant growth potential beyond that in future years. For financial planning purposes, these targets assume that 777X will be certified by midyear 2027.

如 Kelly 所說，我們對中期財務計畫的能見度已提高。我們預期 2027 年可產生約 30 億美元自由現金流，接著 2028 年約 60 億美元、2029 年約 100 億美元，且未來年度仍有顯著的成長潛力。就財務規劃而言，這些目標假設 777X 將於 2027 年年中前取得認證。

For 2027, in addition to the absence of the DOJ payment made in 2026, we expect free cash flow growth to be driven by higher commercial deliveries, modestly improved cash margins on the 737 and 787 programs, continued improvement at BDS, and continued steady growth at BGS. We expect these fundamental growth drivers to be partially offset by the impact of less favorable working capital, including lower year-over-year BCA order deposits and around $1 billion of increased CapEx, which includes the growth associated with recent awards in BDS.

就 2027 年而言，除了 2026 年已支付的 DOJ 款項不再發生之外，我們預期自由現金流成長將由更高的商用交付量、737 與 787 專案現金利潤率的小幅改善、BDS 的持續改善，以及 BGS 的持續穩健成長所帶動。我們預期這些基本面成長動能將部分被較不利的營運資金影響所抵銷，包括 BCA 訂單預收款年對年下降，以及約 10 億美元增加的資本支出（CapEx），其中包含 BDS 近期得標所帶來的成長相關投入。

Keep in mind, as we discussed earlier this year, 2027 free cash flow will be significantly impacted by the legacy cash drags. Beyond 2027, we expect these legacy cash drags to continue to abate in a path to $10 billion to be underpinned by higher 737 and 787 deliveries with improving cash margins.

請記住，正如我們今年稍早討論過的，2027 年的自由現金流將受到既有（legacy）現金拖累的顯著影響。在 2027 年之後，我們預期這些既有現金拖累將持續減弱，而邁向 100 億美元的路徑將由更高的 737 與 787 交付量以及改善中的現金利潤率所支撐。

Positive cash contribution from 777X, profitable growth at BDS and BGS, and still elevated but lower CapEx. As we have said before, there remains significant growth beyond the $10 billion in the future. All of this is underwritten by the robustness in pricing included in our record backlog of $745 billion.

此外，777X 將帶來正向現金貢獻，BDS 與 BGS 將實現獲利性成長，資本支出仍偏高但將下降。如我們先前所說，未來在 100 億美元之上仍存在顯著成長空間。這一切都由我們創紀錄的 7,450 億美元積壓訂單中所包含的強勁定價所支撐。

As we advance, we would expect to provide additional assumptions in support of this free cash flow plan and other elements of the P&L.

隨著我們持續推進，我們預期將提供更多假設，以支持這項自由現金流計畫以及損益表（P&L）的其他要素。

Okay, summing it up. Our focus remains on deliberate and disciplined execution, consisting of steady deliveries, validated rate step-ups, and operational performance that builds upon itself. We will not sacrifice long-term durability. Every decision is made to enable us to deliver on the full potential of the business.

好的，總結一下。我們的重點仍是審慎且有紀律的執行，包括穩定交付、經驗證的產能提升，以及能夠自我強化的營運表現。我們不會犧牲長期的韌性。每一項決策都是為了讓我們能夠釋放業務的全部潛力。

With that, let's open up the line for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

（接線員指示）Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

Thanks. Good morning, Jay. You went through a lot there on the walk from '26 to '27 free cash flow, a lot of positives. But yet, it's only ex the DOJ payment, a few hundred million dollars of growth. Could you size the advances as being abnormal in '27? And then maybe walk us a little bit more on the $3 billion expansion in '28. Is that three-quarters from 777X, maybe just the combination of -- in '29? Thanks.

謝謝。早安，Jay。你在談從 2026 到 2027 的自由現金流變化時提到很多正面因素。但即便排除 DOJ 付款，成長也只有幾億美元。你能否量化一下 2027 年的預收款（advances）是否屬於異常水準？另外也請再多談一點 2028 年 30 億美元的擴張。其中是否有四分之三來自 777X，或是——在 2029 年的組合效應？謝謝。

Okay. Sure. Thanks, Myles. Let me maybe slow it down a little bit. I think I was moving pretty quick there through the materials.

好的。當然。謝謝你，Myles。我可能把節奏放慢一點。我想我剛才在講這些資料時講得滿快的。

And just go back and just another quick summary here. As you mentioned, Myles, the DOJ payment doesn't repeat in 2027. That's a $700 million benefit. As I also said during my prepared remarks, we'll get the benefit from a higher BCA delivery volume as well as modestly improving cash margins.

我再回到這裡做一個很快的總結。如你所提到的，Myles，司法部（DOJ）的付款在 2027 年不會重複發生。這帶來 7 億美元的利多。另外如我在事先準備的發言中所說，我們也將受惠於 BCA 交付量提高，以及現金利潤率小幅改善。

You may recall in the second quarter, I discussed BCA margins, and they were about -- for 2026 around breakeven. So our contribution from BCA will be largely from the improving cash margins in 2027.

你可能記得在第二季我談到 BCA 的利潤率，2026 年大約是——接近損益兩平。因此，我們來自 BCA 的貢獻在 2027 年將主要來自現金利潤率的改善。

Of course, we'll have continued growth from improvement from BDS and BGS. So those all taken together provide positive benefit to cash flow in 2027. As you mentioned and as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we will expect to have lower customer deposits by BCA. 2026 was just a very strong year. It's trending to be a record year.

當然，BDS 與 BGS 的改善也會帶來持續成長。所以把這些因素加總起來，將在 2027 年對現金流帶來正面助益。如你所提到、也如我在事先準備的發言中所提到的，我們預期 BCA 的客戶預收款會較低。2026 年確實是非常強勁的一年。

The market is strong. Our campaign activity and pipelines remains robust. So we still expect 2027 order cash to be pretty strong as well, but just not at the same record level of 2027. And yeah, I would size that in the range of a few billion dollars of impact.

趨勢看起來會是創紀錄的一年。市場很強。我們的行銷活動與案源管線仍然相當強勁。因此我們仍預期 2027 年的訂單現金流也會相當強勁，只是不會達到 2026 年那樣的創紀錄水準。

And then as I mentioned, just to close it out, the CapEx will be higher at $5 billion. So it's about $1 billion higher than 2024. So those are all the building blocks of 2027 free cash flow. As we get into '28 and really '29, it's a similar story. These legacy drugs continue to abate, and they come down.

And so we'll see improving cash margins and we'll also get the benefit -- a higher benefit from higher delivery volumes because now we'll be working from positive cash margins. And so we'll get a double benefit from both of those, and that's all supported by the backlog that we have.

As we get to 2029, more specifically, will be at higher production levels. And so I've said in the past that we expect that the building blocks have a $10 billion free cash flow on a normalized basis is around 52 on 737 for deliveries; on a delivery rate around 10 for the 787; on a delivery rate and positive cash generation out of 777 program.

In '29 specifically, we'll be operating at higher production levels, which will translate into higher delivery levels. And so we'll be closer to the mid- to high 50s on deliveries in '29. We'll be closer to around 12 per month on a 787, and we'll be generating positive free cash flow or expect to generate positive free cash flow on the 777X in '29. The reason we need to be at higher levels because we'll still have some residual drags in '29. And I expect those to be fully behind us for the most part by '29.

So there's runway, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, in 2030 and beyond above $10 billion. So hopefully, that encapsulates '27 and also the future year outlook for you.

All right. Thanks, Jay.

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

Hey. Thanks very much and good morning. Wanted to ask a little bit about the unit returns on aircraft. You talked in the release about some cost growth that we're seeing. If you could -- both from the supply chain and from the process of increasing rates. If you could give a little more color on what that is. And then also how it affects your thinking about unit cash profitability in the out years?

And then on the pricing side, the fact that we're looking at more gradual ramp-up in rates, is that affecting the ability to -- the timing on moving beyond some of these legacy drags on unit revenue?

Seth, let me walk you through, let me start with the BCA margins here in the third quarter. We did -- I did talk about them being impacted by the rate adjustments as well as higher supply chain costs. We had to rollout, as you know, through our EACs, which resulted in an impact to our booking rates.

Specifically on -- I also had to talk related to the 777 program, the existing freighter program in the 767 program, we expect some abnormal costs to carry forward now in the fourth quarter into the first half of the year. I expect those to put some pressure on call it, third quarter run rate margins over that period of time, but they will abate and pretty much diminish in the second half of the year.

When you take into account the benefit of cost-based extensions and higher price backlog and other performance with the higher volumes, we will make some significant improvement in the back half of the year, put ourselves in a position to get to about breakeven in early 2028.

As it relates to cash, all of this that we talked about in these impacts here in the third quarter, all contemplated and factored into our cash flow projections as well as the ramp in the cash margins over this period of time. And so I don't really see much of a difference there. We've absorbed it. We've contemplated that.

And with the price that's already in the backlog, I'm highly confident in the improving margin profile of the BCA programs, both the 737 and 787.

Okay. Thanks very much.

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

Thank you. Good morning, Jay, Kelly. Thank you so much for all that long-term color, Kelly. But maybe if we could just step back and talk about the macro, lots of interest around how higher for longer oil prices might affect the aerospace industry. And obviously, you have a key unique perspective on that.

Can you maybe talk to customer channels you're checking to assess the market, whether it's orders, the services business or just how you're seeing lease rates move around just given the capacity cuts. And with your long-term guidance of free cash flow, what oil price does that assume?

Yes, Sheila. So we are -- to confirm we are in constant contact with all of our customers here as we're navigating through these high fuel prices. I think the actual impact is going to be different depending on the airline. Obviously, a large portion of our backlog is going into replacement aircraft.

因此，對於那些引進新飛機以汰換舊機的客戶而言，這些新機型的燃油效率高得多。事實上，高油價正驅使他們非常、非常希望能更早取得這些飛機。因此，我們可能看到需求轉弱的領域會是在整體成長上，取決於航空公司整體的成長情況。

So for those customers who are bringing on new aircraft to replace older aircraft, these are much more fuel efficient. And in fact, the high fuel prices are driving them to really, really want these aircraft sooner. So the area that we may see softness is in the overall growth, depending on what the airline overall growth would be.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到——Sheila——我們沒有看到任何人想要重新規劃其訂單成長。如果真的發生，坦白說，考量到我們超賣的訂單積壓，我認為我們有機會進行調整與移轉，並加以管理度過。

So far, we haven't seen, Sheila, we haven't seen anybody wanting to replan their order growth. If that should happen, quite frankly, given our oversold backlog, I think there's opportunity for us to shift around and manage through that.

但顯然，這是我們必須持續關注的事情。到目前為止，航空公司大多已將較高的燃油成本轉嫁到票價上；我想在接下來幾個季度，我們必須觀察這點。但再說一次，從總體層面來看，即使我們在成長型市場看到一些需求走弱，我對我們的管理能力仍相當有信心，因為仍有很多客戶希望更快取得用於汰換的飛機。

But obviously, it's something we have to keep an eye on. So far, the airlines have been, for the most part, flowing the higher fuel into ticket prices, think over the next coming quarters, we'll have to watch that. But again, at a macro level, I feel pretty good about our ability to manage even if we do see some softening demand on the growth market because there's plenty of customers who are looking for airplanes faster for replacement.

因此，我們可能需要稍微重新調整一下我們的交付優先順序。如果真的發生，目前還沒發生，我們必須與客戶保持密切聯繫。

So we may have to rewicker a little bit of our firing order. If that happens, it's not happening yet, we have to keep close to our customers here.

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

David Strauss, Wells Fargo.

David Strauss，富國銀行。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Jay, the walk to '27, can you maybe just put a finer point on what you're expecting for MAX and 787 deliveries, including what you're assuming for liquidation of the 737-7 and 737-10 inventory? And then, 777X, I think that's obviously pretty big. The timing there is a pretty big risk item to the outlook. Let's say that slips out of '27 into '28, how much of a risk could that be to that $3 billion cash guide? Thanks.

謝謝。各位早安。Jay，關於走到2027年的路徑，你能否更精準地說明你對MAX與787交付的預期，包括你對737-7與737-10庫存去化（liquidation）的假設？另外，777X我認為顯然非常重要。其時程對展望而言是一個很大的風險項目。假設它從2027年延後到2028年，對你們那30億美元現金指引可能會造成多大的風險？謝謝。

Okay. Just on your -- on the inventory aircraft, next year, we expect between 737-7 and 737-10 deliver around 30 aircraft that are prebuilt going into the year. On the '27 cash bridge --- what was the --

好的。先談你提到的——庫存飛機，明年我們預期737-7與737-10合計將交付約30架，這些是在年度開始前就已預先建造完成的。至於2027年的現金橋接——你剛剛的——

It was on the 777. He was asking about the 777, if it would slip out.

是關於777。他在問777如果延後的話。

Okay, the 777X program, look, it's a scenario that would be significant. We're on a good path, though, as Kelly mentioned in his prepared remarks. I think the risk would be more of later in the year, which would have a some impact on deliveries. Think about deliveries next year between 10 to 15 in that ballpark. And so maybe you'd see some deliveries come down a little bit. And so I think that that could be absorbed within the guide that this $3 billion.

好的，777X專案，你看，這種情境會是重大的。不過如Kelly在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們目前進展良好。我認為風險更可能出現在年度較後段，這會對交付造成一些影響。想像一下明年的交付量大約在10到15架這個區間。因此你可能會看到交付量略為下修一些。我認為這應可在這30億美元指引的範圍內吸收。

Yeah. And I was also hoping to get just the -- what you're exactly assuming for MAX deliveries and 787 deliveries in total --

是的。我也希望能再了解——你們對MAX交付與787交付總量到底具體是怎麼假設的——

Okay. Yeah. That's the question I forgot. Appreciate it, David. So that -- we'll give a little more color in January. What I can tell you is think about total deliveries at BCA to be up 10%-plus, similar to this year. And we'll give more color on that more specifically by program in January.

好的。對，這是我剛剛忘了的問題。謝謝你提醒，David。所以——我們會在一月提供更多細節。我能告訴你的是，BCA的總交付量可望成長10%以上，與今年類似。我們會在一月按各機型更具體地提供更多說明。

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

Scott Mikus，Melius Research。

Good morning, Kelly and Jay. Jay, I think you mentioned in the out year 2029 timeframe, you're expecting 737 production in the mid- to high 50s and 12 per month on the 787. You're going to be at 52 per month in the back half of next year on the 37 moving to 10 per month on the 787 by the end of this year. I'm just curious why it will take roughly two years to move up to those higher rates contemplated in the '29 targets? Just has the outlook for the supply chain deteriorated at all?

Kelly、Jay，早安。Jay，我想你提到在更遠期、約2029年的時間框架，你們預期737產量在每月50多架的中高段，而787為每月12架。你們明年下半年737將達到每月52架，並在今年底把787提升到每月10架。我只是好奇，為什麼要花大約兩年時間才能提升到2029目標所設想的更高產能？供應鏈的展望是否有任何惡化？

No, good question. It's a very good question. And typically, what we have is deliveries do lag the production. But what I would characterize the reconciliation of that is really the upside opportunity that we have in 2029. If we're able to deliver at these higher rates that we're producing it and that would provide upside to the $10 billion target that we have out there.

沒有，問得好。這是個非常好的問題。一般而言，我們的交付確實會落後於生產。但我會把這之間的對應關係描述為：這其實是我們在2029年的上行機會。如果我們能以我們所生產的這些較高產能水準來交付，那將為我們提出的100億美元目標帶來上行空間。

Okay. Got it. And then if I could just follow up real quick. Any assumption on cash taxes or cash interest by the time you get to '29?

好的，了解。那我再快速追問一下。到2029年時，對現金稅或現金利息有任何假設嗎？

It's more of the same. We won't start to have taxes kick in into the early 2030s.

大致上維持相同。我們要到2030年代初期才會開始出現需要繳稅的情況。

Got it Thank you.

了解，謝謝。

I just will come down a little bit accordingly with the maturities, but not significant interest cash.

我想利息現金支出會隨著到期債務而相應略為下降，但不會是顯著的利息現金支出。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

Doug Harned，Bernstein。

Good morning. Thank you. Kelly, if I go back to August on the 737, we looked -- we talked in and things looked pretty stable. It seemed at 47 a month, although as you highlighted, the there were wings, Wichita -- all those things to think about. -- engines, I think, seem fine.

早安。謝謝。Kelly，如果我回到8月談737時，我們看——我們當時討論過，情況看起來相當穩定。似乎在每月47架的水準，雖然如你所強調的，還有機翼、Wichita——所有這些需要考量的事情。——引擎方面，我認為看起來沒問題。

But in September, you described the challenges on drilling holes on the wing, but as we look at getting the stability now, what has to happen is the wing issue resolved at this point? Where does Wichita stand?

但在9月，你描述了機翼鑽孔方面的挑戰；然而當我們現在看要取得穩定性時，必須發生什麼事情？機翼問題在此刻是否已解決？Wichita目前的狀況如何？

And how do we get comfortable that if the visibility wasn't that good back earlier in the summer, how do we get comfortable that things are moving on to the right track to get to that 52-point next year?

以及，如果在夏季較早時能見度沒有那麼好，我們要如何有信心，事情正朝正確方向推進，以在明年達到每月52架的目標？

Yeah. Okay. So let me, first of all, say that engines aren't a problem in this equation. So you can take that out of the equation. We had a series of flow enablers to allow us to ramp up production from 42 to 47 to support that in our wings back office or back shop. That's where we build all the wings for the 737 aircraft.

是的。好的。首先我先說，引擎在這個方程式裡不是問題。所以你可以把它從考量中排除。我們有一系列的流程促進措施（flow enablers），讓我們能把產量從每月42架提升到47架，以支援我們在機翼後段辦公區或後段工廠的產能。那裡是我們為737飛機製造所有機翼的地方。

And some of those flow neighbors just flat out did not yield the flow savings. Some did, some didn't. So we had to step back and make some changes to that. We've got some additional flow enablers. In some cases, we're adding some capacity where we didn't see the flow enablers yield, and we're going through that process right now.

而其中一些流程促進措施坦白說並沒有帶來預期的流程節省。有些有、有些沒有。因此我們必須退一步，對此做一些調整。我們還有一些額外的流程促進措施。在某些情況下，對於那些未能產生流程效益的部分，我們正在增加一些產能，而我們目前正進行這個流程。

Now, early signs are encouraging. We are improving, but we're not yet to where I can say we're stably producing wings to support the 47 a month rate. So we're going to want to dwell on that for a little while to make sure we're stable and don't end up in an unstable situation with production.

目前，早期跡象令人鼓舞。我們正在改善，但還沒到我可以說我們已穩定生產機翼、足以支撐每月47架產能的程度。因此，我們會希望在這上面再多花一點時間，確保穩定，避免生產陷入不穩定的狀況。

Now that informs our next rate increase, obviously. So we didn't go smoothly from 42 to 47 as we did from 38 to 42. And so we're going to want to make sure in the next rate break at 52 that we very much have understood and tested all of our rate enabling functions in the back shops to make sure that they're going to yield.

這顯然也會影響我們下一次的產量提升。所以我們從42提升到47的過程，並不像從38到42那樣順利。因此，在下一個產量階段提升到52時，我們會希望確保我們已充分理解並測試後段車間所有能支撐提產的功能，確保它們能達成預期。

The other thing is recognize that for rate 52, we've got to have the Everett line up and running as well. Really no change to our outlook there. That's going well. In fact, yesterday, we rolled out our first 737-10 from the Everett production facility. So look, we've got to get wings stable, and that's been a challenge for us.

另外一點是要認清，為了達到52的產量，我們也必須讓埃弗里特（Everett）產線啟動並運轉。我們對此的展望確實沒有改變。進展得很順利。事實上，昨天我們從埃弗里特生產設施推出了第一架737-10。所以你看，我們必須讓機翼生產穩定下來，而這一直是我們的挑戰。

And it's just as a result of the process improvement yields weren't there. And so we're going to lose learn from that and make sure before we go to the next rate, we've fully tested these improvement areas and make sure that they are going to yield the next rate increase.

而這只是因為製程改善的良率沒有達到。因此，我們會從中吸取教訓，並確保在提升到下一個產量之前，已把這些改善領域完整測試過，並確認它們能支撐下一次的提產。

But if I can, are there any other watch items here? In other words, if you get the wings really, is that done? Once that's done, things like fuselage is coming out of Wichita, other supply chain questions. Are there any other significant watch items, or will you feel pretty good on this once you've cleared the wing situation?

不過如果可以的話，這裡還有其他需要關注的事項嗎？換句話說，如果你把機翼問題真的解決了，那就結束了嗎？一旦那完成了，像是來自威奇托（Wichita）的機身段出貨、其他供應鏈問題。還有其他重大需要關注的事項嗎？還是說一旦你排除機翼狀況，你就會覺得相當有把握？

Well, I think right now, wings are what have caused us the instability. Part of that is because we do have inventory in fuselages. But once we get through wings, fuselage will be an important focus area for us as well.

嗯，我認為目前造成我們不穩定的就是機翼。其中一部分原因是我們確實有機身段的庫存。但一旦我們把機翼問題處理完，機身段也會成為我們的重要聚焦領域。

And backing up on that, remember that we are producing fuselages at a lower rate than the final assembly intentionally to burn down inventory. So the balance of this year and early into next year, we do have to see the ramp-up of fuselages also, and we get synchronized with the final assembly at rate 52. So that's all in the calculus of our go-forward plan here, getting wings stable, ramping up the fuselage.

再補充一下，請記得我們刻意讓機身段的生產速率低於總裝線，目的是去化庫存。因此，今年剩餘時間到明年初，我們也必須看到機身段的爬坡，並在52的產量下與總裝同步。所以這些都納入我們後續計畫的整體考量：讓機翼穩定、並提升機身段產能。

I wouldn't point you to anything else in the supply chain right now. I mean, there's always the pop-up things like we've had with the GKN windows that we're working to alleviate. But there's no systemic challenge I see right now. Again, I think it's wings, fuselage will be important for this next rate break.

就目前而言，我不會把你指向供應鏈的其他問題。我的意思是，總會有像我們之前遇到的GKN窗戶那樣的突發狀況，我們正在努力緩解。但我目前看不到系統性的挑戰。再說一次，我認為是機翼，而機身段會是下一次提產階段的重要項目。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Peter Arment, Baird.

Peter Arment，Baird。

Hey. Thanks. Good morning, Kelly and Jay. Kelly, you just touched upon Wichita a little bit, but maybe if you could just give us an update of the ongoing ramp of what you're seeing in Spirit. Any metrics you want to share on that progress.

嗨，謝謝。早安，Kelly和Jay。Kelly，你剛剛稍微提到威奇托，但也許你可以跟我們更新一下你在Spirit那邊看到的持續爬坡狀況。有沒有任何你想分享的進展指標？

And then, Jay, just confirming BCA cycling at much higher levels. It sounds like you're calling out a potential breakeven margin in play for '27. Are you expecting BCA margins to return to more historical levels with your '29 outlook? Just maybe any color there on the slope of the margin recovery at BCA, that would be helpful. Thanks.

然後，Jay，我想確認一下BCA在更高水準下循環運轉。聽起來你提到在'27可能會接近損益兩平的利潤率。你是否預期在你對'29的展望下，BCA利潤率會回到更接近歷史水準？如果能就BCA利潤率復甦的斜率提供一些說明，會很有幫助。謝謝。

Okay. Let me start with Wichita. So overall, the integration is going according to our integration plan. One of the things that we really are focused on, while we kept Wichita at a lower rate, was to implement our safety and quality plan at Wichita that we were very successful in implementing in Renton, as you know. And so we've been doing that.

好的。我先從威奇托開始。整體而言，整合正依照我們的整合計畫進行。我們真正聚焦的一件事是：在我們讓威奇托維持較低產量的同時，導入我們在倫頓（Renton）成功推行的安全與品質計畫，如你所知。所以我們一直在做這件事。

I would say that that's probably slowed them down a little bit as we've implemented some of these safety and quality features. So you'll see our inventory of fuselage is probably a little bit lower or burning down a little bit faster than what our baseline plan said.

我會說，隨著我們導入其中一些安全與品質措施，這可能讓他們的速度稍微慢了一點。因此你會看到我們的機身段庫存可能比基準計畫略低，或去化速度比基準計畫稍快一些。

But again, we've got the ramp-up plans in place that's contemplated in our forecast here as we go forward. And also contributing to making sure we stay stable at 47 a little bit longer before we move to 52.

但再說一次，我們已經有爬坡計畫，並已納入我們接下來的預測之中。同時，這也有助於確保我們在從47提升到52之前，能在47的水準上多維持一段時間的穩定。

On the margin recovery, Peter, we often anchor and compare to 2018 margins. What I could say there is on the 737, it will ramp up the margin profile, but we'll not reach what it was in 2018 either on a percentage or absolute basis. By contrast, the 787 by 2029 will exceed what it was on 2018, both on an absolute basis as well as on a percentage basis. Taken together, overall, will be in that benefit in '29.

關於利潤率復甦，Peter，我們常以2018年的利潤率作為錨點來比較。我可以說的是，在737方面，利潤率輪廓會隨著爬坡而提升，但無論以百分比或絕對金額來看，都不會回到2018年的水準。相較之下，787到2029年將會超過2018年的水準，無論是絕對金額或百分比。兩者合併來看，整體在'29會呈現那樣的改善效益。

Got it That's helpful. Thank you.

了解，這很有幫助。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

Noah Poponak，高盛（Goldman Sachs）。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Jay, it seems like a decent amount of the variance in the free cash trajectory you just provided versus maybe what some people are thinking is CapEx. So you gave us a '27 CapEx. Maybe you could just give us the capital plan for '28, '29 or when you get back to normalize as a percentage of revenue?

嗨，早安，各位。Jay，看起來你剛提供的自由現金流軌跡，與一些人原先的想法之間的差異，有相當一部分來自資本支出（CapEx）。你給了我們'27年的CapEx。也許你可以再提供一下'28、'29的資本計畫，或是你們何時會回到以營收百分比來看較正常化的水準？

And then on 777, I guess, it's fairly surprising to hear the answer to the prior question that you could absorb another slide. Just last time it had the slide, everybody had to move free cash around a lot. So should we interpret that as you are providing conservative numbers you want to be able to beat, or is it just that the 777 delivery plan is so late in '27 that it can slide?

另外關於777，我想聽到你對前一個問題的回答，說你們可以吸收再一次延宕，這相當令人意外。上一次發生延宕時，大家都得大幅調整自由現金流。所以我們是否應該解讀為：你們提供的是偏保守、希望能超越的數字；或者只是因為777的交付計畫在'27年很後段，所以可以再往後滑？

Yeah. Let me address 777, and I'll let you talk about the cash flow. When we did the reset last -- the last reset, major reset on the 777 program, we definitely put management reserve in there to allow for additional schedule pressure going forward. Now, I don't want to imply that the 777 program has moved to the middle of next year. We are still driving to the team for certification.

是的。我先回應777，然後我讓你談現金流。在我們上一次重置——也就是777專案上一次重大重置時——我們確實在其中納入了管理準備金（management reserve），以因應未來可能出現的額外排程壓力。不過，我不想暗示777專案已經移到明年年中。我們仍在推動團隊朝取證（certification）目標前進。

But what we're saying is we've financially provisioned such that if certification delays to the middle of the year that we'll still be able to do that within our EAC. We're driving to a much earlier date right now. We don't yet, as I said in my prepared remarks, we don't yet have the full authorization for the flight test program.

但我們要表達的是，我們在財務上已做足準備，因此即使認證延遲到年中，我們仍然能在我們的EAC（完工估算成本）範圍內完成。我們目前正推動把時間點提前得多。正如我在事先準備的發言中所說，我們目前仍未取得飛行測試計畫的完整授權。

There's a couple of things I will note is the FAA had a tremendous amount of work to do on the 737-7 and 737-10 certification as did our test teams. And having that work behind us really does allow us to -- both parties to put more resources on the 777 test work that's yet ahead of us. So I'm hopeful to see us accelerate that here as we run through the balance of the year and run into next year.

我想補充幾點：FAA在737-7與737-10的認證上有大量工作要做，我們的測試團隊也是如此。而把這些工作完成之後，確實讓我們——雙方——能把更多資源投入到仍在前方的777測試工作上。因此我希望在今年剩餘時間以及進入明年時，我們能看到進度加速。

Airplanes are flying. We're making progress on the test program. We are getting some incremental authorization for additional flight testing from the FAA that think of it as an extension to the TIA 4B. We still have these big flight tests yet ahead of us -- flight test authorizations yet ahead of us. So we're working hard to get all that done.

飛機正在飛。我們在測試計畫上持續取得進展。我們正從FAA取得一些針對額外飛行測試的增量授權，你可以把它想成是對TIA 4B的延伸。我們前面仍有這些大型飛行測試——也就是仍有待取得的飛行測試授權。所以我們正努力把這些都完成。

I will also say that I think we now know after the 737-7 and 737-10 what it takes to get certification complete in this new post world of regulation. And so that's factored into our planning and we're off executing that with the FAA now.

我也要說，我認為在737-7與737-10之後，我們現在已經知道在這個新的、後監管環境下，要完成認證需要什麼。因此這已納入我們的規劃之中，而我們現在正與FAA一起執行。

On your question, Noah, on CapEx, for '27, about $5 billion, as I mentioned, '28 and '29 would be around $4 billion in each year. And just going back -- circling back on the 777X on the cash. Again, it was in the context of really the way Kelly just laid it out. We're talking an impact of a few months, a month or two is what I was quantifying.

回到你的問題，Noah，關於資本支出（CapEx），2027年約50億美元，如我提到的，2028與2029年每年大約40億美元。另外再回到——再回到777X的現金影響。同樣地，這是在Kelly剛才所描述的脈絡下。我量化的是幾個月的影響，大概是一到兩個月。

Okay. And Jay, going to $4 billion is still 3% of revenue that company was running two or even a little below two for a while. Is it structurally higher? Does that -- you just have a lot of new projects and that does eventually work back down as a percentage of revenue?

好的。Jay，降到40億美元仍然是營收的3%，而公司之前一度是2%甚至略低於2%。這是否在結構上更高？還是說——你們只是有很多新專案，之後占營收比重會再降回來？

Yeah. I would expect it to be higher than 2%. It will come down, I think, over time, but it will be 3 plus -- 3% to 4% is the right way to look at it on a normalized basis out in the future.

是的。我預期會高於2%。我認為隨著時間推移會下降，但在未來以常態化的角度來看，3%以上——大約3%到4%是比較合適的看法。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

John Godyn, Citi.

花旗的John Godyn。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Kelly and Jay, obviously, a lot of new detail about the free cash flow over the next few years. If we took it at face value, it seems like all the numbers are just parallel shifting lower. And what I want to ask about is just make sure we haven't lost sight of the North Star beyond 2029.

嗨，各位。謝謝讓我提問。Kelly和Jay，顯然你們提供了未來幾年自由現金流的許多新細節。如果按字面理解，看起來所有數字都只是平行下移。我想問的是，確認一下我們沒有忽略2029年之後的「北極星」目標。

Obviously, you don't have specific numbers out there. But if we thought about our model should be changing in 2031 -- or 2030 and 2031 or whenever you view getting past this period of ramp, has that ultimate number that more full earnings power changed in your mind? Has that North Star shifted at all? And any other color on that, that you're willing to give would be helpful.

顯然你們沒有提供具體數字。但如果我們思考在2031——或2030與2031，或你們認為能走出這段爬坡期的時間點——我們的模型是否應該改變：你們心目中那個更完整的獲利能力最終水準有改變嗎？那個「北極星」有任何移動嗎？你們願意提供的任何補充說明都會很有幫助。

No, I don't believe so. But I think both Kelly's and I comments both said the same thing, which was we expect significant growth beyond 2029. And so we will see runway -- continued runway on the margin improvement, and that will be a continued source of increasing cash flow in addition to volumes.

不，我不這麼認為。但我想Kelly和我的評論其實都在說同一件事：我們預期2029年之後會有顯著成長。因此我們會看到跑道——利潤率改善的跑道會持續延伸，而這將在出貨量之外，成為現金流持續增加的來源。

Back on the prior question where we're talking about what we're assuming for 2029 from a delivery perspective, that also provides runway to deliver out of rate 63 and at a rate 14 on 787. So that will be a compounding benefit going beyond 2029.

回到前一個問題，我們在談2029年從交付角度的假設時，這也提供了跑道，讓我們能在2029年之後，持續以63的產能速率交付，並且787以14的速率交付。因此這會在2029年之後帶來複利式的效益。

So is it fair to describe what's happening here is a steepening of the overall free cash flow profile but getting to the same point?

所以，用這樣的方式描述是否公平：整體自由現金流曲線變得更陡，但最終仍到達同一個點？

John, I look at it as almost like a -- from expectations, more of a one-year shift to the right. I don't think our expectations about the slope or the absolute endpoint has changed at all.

John，我的看法是，從市場預期的角度來看，幾乎像是整體往右移了一年。我不認為我們對斜率或最終的絕對終點的預期有任何改變。

Appreciate that. Very clear. Thanks.

了解，謝謝。非常清楚。謝謝。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的Ron Epstein。

Kelly, Jay, I promise I will not ask a cash flow question, but let's talk about something more fun. You guys won 47, you won F/A-XX. It would appear that the future of tactical aircraft, military aviation for the US is in Boeing's hands.

Kelly、Jay，我保證我不會問現金流的問題，我們來聊點更有趣的。你們拿下了47，也拿下了F/A-XX。看起來美國戰術飛機、軍用航空的未來掌握在波音手上。

So Kelly, how are you thinking about that for BDS? We think more broadly about BDS. How could BDS grow? What's that mean for margin? I mean, that's a real structural change, right? I mean, just a couple of years ago, I don't think anybody thought that was in the cards here. So how do you think about it?

所以Kelly，你如何看待這對BDS（波音國防、太空與安全事業）的意義？更廣泛地看BDS，它要如何成長？這對利潤率意味著什麼？我的意思是，這是一個真正的結構性改變，對吧？幾年前，我想沒有人認為這會發生在這裡。所以你怎麼看？

Yeah. So well, first of all, we are going to see higher growth out of our defense portfolio than maybe what we thought a year ago. I think we were thinking more in terms of low single-digit revenue growth. Clearly, that's going to be more towards the high -- middle single digit or higher going forward.

是的。首先，我們的國防產品組合的成長將高於我們一年前的預期。我想當時我們的想法比較偏向營收低個位數成長。很明顯，未來將更接近中高個位數，甚至更高。

The important part is all these programs are also being underwritten with the right contract type. So not only are we booking more orders, we're working more orders that won't result in some of the challenges we've had.

重要的是，這些專案也都以正確的合約類型來承作。因此我們不只是接到更多訂單，我們執行的訂單也不會再導致我們過去遇到的一些挑戰。

And it's not just the order booking, Ron. We've moved MQ-25. We've moved T7 2 milestones see on both of those, a big new order on F-15EX and there's more to come on that, the PAC-3 seeker growth. And we've done MOUs with all of our customers on these big fixed price development contracts, and we've got Starliner under control here in the last quarter.

而且不只是接單而已，Ron。MQ-25我們推進了；T-7我們在兩個里程碑上也都有進展；F-15EX拿到一筆大新訂單，而且後續還會有更多；PAC-3導引頭（seeker）也有成長。此外，我們也已與所有客戶就這些大型固定價格開發合約簽署了MOU（合作備忘錄），而Starliner在上一季也已在我們掌控之中。

So look, I feel much, much better about both the growth profile but also the margin performance profile. We still have to get through. We're not done with the development programs until we're done. But Steve Parker and his team are doing a really, really good job of finding win-win scenarios with our customers to get these projects move forward.

所以你看，我對成長曲線以及利潤率表現曲線都感覺好很多、很多。我們仍然必須把這些專案走完。在開發專案真正結束之前，我們都還不能說完成。但Steve Parker和他的團隊做得非常、非常好，與客戶一起找出雙贏的方案，讓這些專案能持續向前推進。

So the outlook is strong. Our products across the board are in strong demand, and the budget supports additional growth. So look, I think our defense portfolio is a little bit of a sleeper here.

所以前景相當強勁。我們全線產品需求都很強，且預算也支持進一步成長。所以你看，我認為我們的國防產品組合在這裡有點像被低估的亮點。

Okay. Just as a follow-on, just to reiterate a question, we've got a lot, and this is for either of you guys. On F/A-XX or F-47, if you can say, people ask, is it fixed price development? Can you hit? Is it not? I'm hoping it's not. Can you give us a hint there?

好的。接著追問一下，重申一個問題，我們這邊有很多問題，這題你們兩位都可以回答。關於F/A-XX或F-47，如果你們能說的話，大家會問：這是不是固定價格的研發合約？你們能做到嗎？還是不是？我希望不是固定價。你們能給我們一點提示嗎？

So the F-47 is cost plus and the F/A-XX, I can't say, but I'd just say it's an appropriate contract type.

F-47是成本加成（cost-plus），至於F/A-XX我不能說，但我只能說那是合適的合約類型。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

UBS的Gavin Parsons。

Thank you. Good morning. I was hoping to get your latest thoughts on the possibility of a new single-aisle aircraft. And then separately, whether or not there's any assumption for higher R&D and CapEx related to that in the '29 free cash guide? Thanks.

謝謝。早安。我想請教你們對於推出新一代單走道飛機可能性的最新看法。另外，『29年自由現金流指引』中，是否有納入與此相關、較高的研發（R&D）與資本支出（CapEx）假設？謝謝。

So really, nothing has changed on our outlook on a new airplane. We've got a team working in our product development right now, trying to define what that what looks -- that looks like and what the market timing is. So really no change in our outlook. And certainly, that's -- any investment we need for that is contemplated in our cash outlook here.

就我們對新機型的展望而言，基本上沒有改變。我們目前在產品開發部門有一個團隊在運作，試圖界定那會是什麼樣子，以及市場時點為何。所以我們的展望確實沒有變。當然，我們在這裡的現金展望中已經把所需的任何投資納入考量。

Yeah, that's right. And there's not significant types of investments here. More of our investments would be in R&D tech development type

對，沒錯。而且這裡不會有很大規模的投資類型。我們的投資更多會是在研發技術開發這一類。

And we will be ramping down as we finish the -- well, we're ramping down right now as we finish the 737 program. When we finish the 777 program, you will see a shift of resources and spending from those development programs to new programs.

而且隨著我們完成——嗯，我們現在正隨著737專案接近完成而逐步降低投入。等到我們完成777專案時，你會看到資源與支出從那些開發專案轉移到新的專案上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

TD Cowen的Gautam Khanna。

Yes. Good morning, guys. I was wondering if you could elaborate on the shape of deferred production across the three programs. If you can give us some sense for how much those balances will grow in aggregate next year. And then when they will decline and by how much in '28 and '29 in your assumptions? Thank you.

是的。各位早安。我想請你們更詳細說明三個專案的遞延生產成本（deferred production）的走勢形狀。能否讓我們了解一下，明年這些餘額合計大概會增加多少？以及在你們的假設中，這些餘額會在『28與『29年何時開始下降、下降多少？謝謝。

Yeah. Gautam, I'm going to get into the specific changes, but what I'll tell you is in the 737 and 787, essentially start to flat out next year. So they're lower use of cash. Going into '28 and '29, they become sources of cash and they've become pretty significant sources of cash and drive working capital in total to continue to be a source of cash.

好的。Gautam，我不會進到非常具體的變動數字，但我可以告訴你，737和787基本上明年會開始趨於持平。所以它們對現金的消耗會降低。進入『28與『29年後，它們會變成現金來源，而且會成為相當顯著的現金來源，並帶動整體營運資金持續成為現金來源。

And so those are, I think, directionally where they're going. The 777X program because it's going to be early on in deliveries, that will grow and that will grow over the next few years. But again, the cash drivers will be because of improved profitability on the 737 and 787 programs, we'll see a nice benefit from deferred production reductions on those two.

所以我認為方向上就是如此。至於777X專案，由於交付初期仍在早期階段，遞延生產成本會增加，且未來幾年都會增加。但同樣地，現金驅動因素會來自737與787專案獲利能力改善，我們會從這兩個專案的遞延生產成本下降中看到不錯的效益。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Operator, we have time for one more analyst question.

接線員，我們還有時間再接一位分析師提問。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research Partners.

Vertical Research Partners的Robert Stallard。

Thanks so much. Good morning. Kelly, maybe just to round things off here. I was wondering if you could comment on what has allowed you to give this free cash flow guidance here. What has changed in terms of your outlook that gives you the confidence to give these numbers?

非常感謝。早安。Kelly，或許在最後做個總結。我想請你談談，是什麼讓你們能在這裡給出自由現金流指引。你們的展望有哪些改變，使你們有信心給出這些數字？

Yeah, Rob. Look, it's been a couple of years of really taking challenges faced on in getting those challenges put to bed. We have significantly reduced the risk of this portfolio. If you look at just two years back, every one of our fixed-price development programs was challenged. We've got that at hand.

是的，Rob。你看，過去幾年我們一直正面迎戰所面臨的挑戰，並把這些挑戰逐一解決。我們已大幅降低這個產品組合的風險。如果你回頭看兩年前，我們每一個固定價格的研發專案都面臨挑戰。我們已經把這些掌握住了。

We didn't know whether we'd won any of the next-generation six-gen fighters. We've won both of those. So we've got that well at hand. And we can see the improved performance in how we're underwriting our defense business.

我們當時也不確定是否能贏得任何下一代第六代戰機專案。我們兩個都贏了。所以這部分也已經很穩。而且我們也看到在國防業務承作與風險定價（underwriting）方式上，績效有所改善。

We also we're -- if you recall, two years ago, we were coming out of a strike, and we were producing at zero in our commercial factories. We've successfully ramped up to 38, albeit the ramp to 47 has probably taken longer than anybody wants. Everybody wants us to go faster. I get that. But we're going to stay disciplined as we ramp up here.

另外，如果你還記得，兩年前我們正從罷工中走出來，商用飛機工廠的產量一度是零。我們已成功拉升到38架，儘管從38拉升到47可能比任何人希望的都花更久時間。大家都希望我們更快。我理解。但我們在這裡拉升產能時會保持紀律。

And I think what we -- as we've looked at this, we feel like we have a better handle on the risk to where we can provide you an outlook that we can meet. And so I think now is the time the bar, as we said in the previous -- in our prepared remarks, the expectations are rising.

我認為，當我們審視這些之後，我們覺得對風險的掌握更到位，因此可以向各位提供一個我們能達成的展望。所以我認為現在是時候了；正如我們在先前——在事先準備的發言中所說，門檻正在提高，市場期待正在上升。

We recognize that, and I think that's good and the expectations on ourselves are rising. And -- so we're providing this with confidence that the team is ready to go execute. There's still things out there that we got to deal with, but not near the uncertainty we had before, so I feel like it's a good time to do it.

我們也意識到這點，我認為這是好事；我們對自己的期待也在提高。因此我們有信心提供這些指引，因為團隊已準備好去執行。外面仍然有一些事情需要處理，但不再像以前那樣充滿不確定性，所以我覺得現在是個好時機。

That's great. Thanks, Kelly

太好了。謝謝你，Kelly。

And that completes the Boeing Company's third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Thank you for joining.

以上為波音公司2026年第三季財報電話會議。感謝各位參與。