Azul SA (AZUL) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to Azul's Second Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. My name is (inaudible), and I will be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions) I would like to turn the presentation over to Thais Haberli, Head of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Azul 2022 年第二季度業績電話會議。我的名字是(聽不清),今天我將擔任您的接線員。 (操作員說明)我想將演示文稿交給投資者關係主管 Thais Haberli。請繼續。

  • Thais Haberli - IR Manager

    Thais Haberli - IR Manager

  • Thank you, (inaudible), and welcome all to Azul's second quarter earnings call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio of this call and the slides that we reference are available on our IR website. Presenting today will be David Neeleman Founder and Chairman; and John Rodgerson, CEO. Alex Malfitani, our CFO; Abhi Shah, our Chief Revenue Officer, are also here for the Q&A session.

    謝謝,(聽不清),歡迎大家參加 Azul 的第二季度財報電話會議。我們今天早上宣布的結果、這次電話會議的音頻和我們參考的幻燈片都可以在我們的 IR 網站上找到。今天的演講將是 David Neeleman 創始人兼董事長;和首席執行官約翰羅傑森。我們的首席財務官 Alex Malfitani;我們的首席營收官 Abhi Shah 也出席了問答環節。

  • Before I turn the call over to David, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not serial facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives, and expected performance constituent forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a range of assumptions that a company believes are reasonable, but are subject to uncertainties and risks that are discussed in detail in our CPM and SEC slides. Also during the course of the call, we will discuss non-IFRS reforms measures, which [all] should be considered in isolation. With that, I will turn the call over to David.

    在我將電話轉給大衛之前,我想提醒您注意我們的前瞻性陳述。今天討論的任何非連續事實的事項,特別是關於公司未來計劃、目標和預期業績構成前瞻性陳述的評論。這些陳述基於公司認為合理的一系列假設,但受制於我們的 CPM 和 SEC 幻燈片中詳細討論的不確定性和風險。此外,在電話會議期間,我們將討論非 IFRS 改革措施,[所有] 都應單獨考慮。有了這個,我會把電話轉給大衛。

  • David Gary Neeleman - Chairman

    David Gary Neeleman - Chairman

  • Thanks, Thais. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2022 earnings call. As always, I would like to start by thanking our crew members for taking care of each other and our customers on more than 1,000 daily flights. Abhi tells me that number is going to 1,000 flights by October, amazing. Thanks to our crew members' dedication and achieved record second quarter results in what is seasonally the weakest quarter of the year.

    謝謝,泰國人。歡迎大家,感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。與往常一樣,我首先要感謝我們的機組人員在每天 1,000 多個航班上互相照顧和照顧我們的客戶。 Abhi 告訴我,到 10 月,這個數字將達到 1,000 個航班,太棒了。感謝我們船員的奉獻精神,並在今年季節性最弱的一個季度取得了創紀錄的第二季度業績。

  • I'd like to remind you that Azul has one -- is one of the fastest and most profitable recoveries in the world and is the only airline I know of to deliver top-line revenue 50% above pre-pandemic levels. We continue to strengthen Brazil's largest network. Since 2019, we've got 35 new destinations. We are the only carrier in 80% of the routes that we serve and are the leader in terms of departures in 88% of our markets.

    我想提醒您,Azul 有一個——它是世界上復甦最快、利潤最高的航空公司之一,也是我所知道的唯一一家收入比大流行前水平高出 50% 的航空公司。我們繼續加強巴西最大的網絡。自 2019 年以來,我們新增了 35 個目的地。在我們所服務的 80% 的航線中,我們是唯一的承運人,並且在我們 88% 的市場中的出發率方面處於領先地位。

  • Our future growth will continue this laser focus on our network and what makes it strong. Our service to over 150 destinations contributes significantly to Brazil's development by providing opportunity to employment, trade links, and promoting tourism all over the country. Our network's popularity is unique and supported by a flexible fleet, enabling us to deploy the right aircraft in the right market at the right time, as you can see on Slide 4. As you can also see on Slide 4, we ended the quarter with the largest fuel-efficient fleet in the region, representing 70% of our ASKs. This reinforces our environmental commitment and our ability to grow efficiently and profitably. We could not be more enthusiastic about the continued runway ahead in our fleet transformation program. The continued up-gauging of the next-generation aircraft will drive down costs and resulting in higher margins. More news will be coming next week on the fleet transformation program, new developments.

    我們未來的增長將繼續專注於我們的網絡及其強大的原因。我們為 150 多個目的地提供服務,通過提供就業機會、貿易聯繫和促進全國各地的旅遊業,為巴西的發展做出了重大貢獻。我們的網絡廣受歡迎,並得到靈活機隊的支持,使我們能夠在正確的時間在正確的市場部署正確的飛機,如幻燈片 4 所示。如幻燈片 4 所示,我們在本季度結束時以該地區最大的節油機隊,占我們 ASK 的 70%。這加強了我們對環境的承諾以及我們高效和盈利增長的能力。我們對機隊轉型計劃中繼續前進的跑道充滿熱情。下一代飛機的持續上調將降低成本並帶來更高的利潤率。下週將有更多關於機隊改造計劃和新發展的消息。

  • Before I hand it over to John, I want to end on Slide 5 by showing you why I'm so proud of this team. We ended the quarter as the most on-time airline in the Americas and the third most on time in the whole world. Our customer satisfaction scores are industry-leading and higher than they've ever been, all of this while generating 19% more ASKs when compared to 2019, serving more than 150 destinations. And finally, a more efficient airline that is generating 11% more ASKs for FTE than before, a truly incredible achievement by the entire team. I'm confident about the future of Brazil's aviation market, our ability to grow profitably all the while creating the best experience for our crew (technical difficulty). We have created an incredible business that is generating billions and billions of cash flow from operations and the best is yet to come. With that, I'll turn the word over to John to give you more details on the second quarter results.

    在我把它交給 John 之前,我想在幻燈片 5 結束時向你展示我為什麼為這個團隊感到驕傲。我們在本季度結束時成為美洲準點率最高的航空公司,也是全球準點率第三高的航空公司。我們的客戶滿意度得分處於行業領先地位,並且比以往任何時候都高,與 2019 年相比,所有這些同時產生的 ASK 增加了 19%,服務於 150 多個目的地。最後,一家效率更高的航空公司為 FTE 產生的 ASK 比以前增加了 11%,這是整個團隊真正令人難以置信的成就。我對巴西航空市場的未來充滿信心,我們有能力一直盈利增長,同時為我們的機組人員創造最佳體驗(技術難度)。我們創造了一項令人難以置信的業務,它正在從運營中產生數十億的現金流,而最好的還在後頭。有了這個,我會把這個詞轉給約翰,給你更多關於第二季度業績的細節。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Thanks, David. I also want to thank our crew members. As a result of their incredible work, we're able to share these great results with you today. As you can see on Slide 6, the second quarter proved once again the strength of our business. Our top line revenue more than doubled compared to the same period last year, reaching BRL 3.9 billion, an all-time record revenue for any quarter in our history. Even more impressive is that revenue was up 50% compared to pre-pandemic levels in what is seasonally the weakest quarter of the year. This achievement was a direct result of the strong demand environment in our network. PRASK and RAS grew 57% and 44%, respectively, even with a 60% growth in our total capacity year-over-year. We were encouraged by the revenue performance in the second quarter and continue to see positive trends in yields and bookings going forward.

    謝謝,大衛。我還要感謝我們的工作人員。由於他們令人難以置信的工作,我們今天能夠與您分享這些偉大的成果。正如您在幻燈片 6 中看到的那樣,第二季度再次證明了我們業務的實力。與去年同期相比,我們的收入增長了一倍以上,達到 39 億雷亞爾,創下我們歷史上任何季度的歷史最高收入。更令人印象深刻的是,在今年季節性最疲軟的季度,收入與大流行前水平相比增長了 50%。這一成就是我們網絡中強勁的需求環境的直接結果。 PRASK 和 RAS 分別增長了 57% 和 44%,即使我們的總產能同比增長 60%。我們對第二季度的收入表現感到鼓舞,並繼續看到收益率和預訂量的積極趨勢。

  • As you can see on Slide 7, our EBITDA reached BRL 615 million in the quarter, representing a margin of almost 16%. If we use hedge accounting, our EBITDA would have been BRL 880 million in the quarter, 20% above the same period in 2019. Let me repeat, including our fuel hedging gains, our EBITDA for the quarter was higher than 2019. This is including the 112% increase in jet fuel prices and the 26% devaluation of the local currency. While we're seeing a very positive trend in revenues, we also continue to efficiently manage our costs.

    正如您在幻燈片 7 中看到的那樣,我們的 EBITDA 在本季度達到 6.15 億雷亞爾,利潤率接近 16%。如果我們使用對沖會計,本季度我們的 EBITDA 將是 8.8 億雷亞爾,比 2019 年同期高 20%。讓我再說一遍,包括我們的燃料對沖收益,我們本季度的 EBITDA 高於 2019 年。這包括航空燃油價格上漲 112%,當地貨幣貶值 26%。雖然我們看到收入的趨勢非常積極,但我們也繼續有效地管理我們的成本。

  • As you can see on Slide 8, productivity measured in ASKs per full-time employee increased 43% compared to the same period last year and 11% versus second quarter 2019. Fuel consumption for ASK dropped 3% versus last year and 10% versus second quarter 2019. Our fleet today is 10% more fuel efficient than 2019, and we'll continue to get more efficient going forward. Compared to second quarter 2021, CASK (Ex fuel) decreased 12%, mainly driven by our fleet transformation, cost reduction initiatives, and productivity gains. We made a promise to you that we would emerge as a more efficient airline, and that is exactly what we're doing.

    正如您在幻燈片 8 中看到的那樣,以每位全職員工的 ASK 衡量的生產力與去年同期相比增加了 43%,與 2019 年第二季度相比增加了 11%。ASK 的油耗與去年相比下降了 3%,與第二季度相比下降了 10% 2019 年季度。我們今天的車隊的燃油效率比 2019 年提高了 10%,而且我們將繼續提高效率。與 2021 年第二季度相比,CASK(不含燃料)下降了 12%,主要是由於我們的車隊轉型、降低成本舉措和提高生產力。我們向您承諾,我們將成為一家更有效率的航空公司,而這正是我們正在做的事情。

  • On Slide 9, you can see that our immediate liquidity increased by BRL 530 million during the quarter without a capital raise driven by our strong operational performance. Our operating cash inflows surpassed our outflows by more than BRL 2 billion. Total liquidity remains strong at BRL 7 billion, and we ended the quarter with BRL 4 billion in immediate liquidity, even after paying down BRL 1.7 billion in leases, loans, deferral payments, interest, and capital expenses.

    在幻燈片 9 上,您可以看到我們的即時流動性在本季度增加了 5.3 億巴西雷亞爾,而沒有因我們強勁的運營業績而籌集資金。我們的經營現金流入超過流出超過 20 億雷亞爾。總流動性保持在 70 億雷亞爾,即使在支付了 17 億雷亞爾的租賃、貸款、延期付款、利息和資本支出後,我們的即時流動性仍為 40 億雷亞爾。

  • As you can see on Slide 10, we reduced our leverage in the quarter by 1.5 points to 6.2%, which puts us in a good position to finish the year starting with a 5. Our leverage is the lowest in the region, even when using 7x rent when accounting for operating leases. As a reminder, Azul has the largest fleet of new next-generation aircraft in the region. And since rent and lease liabilities increased as newer aircraft enter your fleet, that effect is already reflected in our numbers.

    正如您在幻燈片 10 中看到的那樣,我們將本季度的槓桿率降低了 1.5 個百分點至 6.2%,這使我們能夠以 5 分開始完成這一年。我們的槓桿率是該地區最低的,即使使用考慮經營租賃時,租金為 7 倍。提醒一下,Azul 擁有該地區最大的新一代新一代飛機機隊。而且由於隨著新飛機進入您的機隊,租金和租賃負債增加,這種影響已經反映在我們的數據中。

  • On Slide 11, you could see the strong booking trends continued through the quarter. Our network advantages allowed us to quickly adjust fares to the volatile cost environment. This trend continues. And what we're seeing now is bookings and revenue coming in at record high average fares.

    在幻燈片 11 上,您可以看到強勁的預訂趨勢持續到整個季度。我們的網絡優勢使我們能夠根據多變的成本環境快速調整票價。這種趨勢仍在繼續。我們現在看到的是預訂量和收入以創紀錄的平均票價進入。

  • On Slide 12, you can see how these positive trends set us up so well for the rest of the year. It's fair to say that demand for Azul's products and services has never been stronger. As I mentioned, we're currently seeing bookings at high average fares, the highest in our history in fact. This combined with the recent favorable movements in currency and fuel gives you a sense of the operating leverage and margin opportunities for the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

    在幻燈片 12 上,您可以看到這些積極趨勢如何讓我們在今年餘下的時間如此順利。可以公平地說,對 Azul 產品和服務的需求從未如此強烈。正如我所提到的,我們目前看到的平均票價很高,實際上是我們歷史上最高的。再加上最近貨幣和燃料的有利走勢,您可以了解 2022 年剩餘時間和 2023 年的運營槓桿和保證金機會。

  • Moving on to Slide 13. Our business units, Azul Cargo, TudoAzul, and Azul Viagens, further extend our competitive advantages. These fast-growing, high-margin businesses contribute to expand our industry-leading margins by leveraging the strength of our network and the flexibility of our fleet. Our cargo business continues to perform extremely well, with revenue almost tripling compared to 2019. TudoAzul maintained a strong growth pace during the second quarter with gross billings Ex-Azul up an impressive 60% year-over-year. Finally, Azul Viagens had a remarkable quarter. Revenue increased 70% compared to 2019, benefiting from the expansion of our dedicated flights. For this upcoming summer season, for example, we'll operate 2,000 flights exclusively for Azul Viagens. Each of these business units had a record revenue quarter, and each one is on pace to generate well over BRL 1 billion in bookings just this year.

    繼續幻燈片 13。我們的業務部門 Azul Cargo、TudoAzul 和 Azul Viagens 進一步擴大了我們的競爭優勢。這些快速增長的高利潤業務通過利用我們的網絡實力和我們機隊的靈活性,有助於擴大我們行業領先的利潤率。我們的貨運業務繼續表現出色,與 2019 年相比,收入幾乎翻了三倍。TudoAzul 在第二季度保持了強勁的增長速度,Ex-Azul 的總賬單同比增長了 60%,令人印象深刻。最後,Azul Viagens 有一個非凡的季度。受益於我們專用航班的擴展,收入與 2019 年相比增長了 70%。例如,在即將到來的夏季,我們將專門為 Azul Viagens 運營 2,000 個航班。這些業務部門中的每一個都創下了創紀錄的季度收入,並且每個部門都有望在今年產生超過 10 億雷亞爾的預訂量。

  • Moving to Slide 14. Another important development during the quarter was the decision by the regulatory agency, ANAC, regarding the slot distribution at the Congonhas Airport. The combination of this new rule, along with an increase in capacity ahead of its privatization is very positive and encouraging competition at the airport directly benefiting Azul customers. We believe that through these initiatives, Azul may more than double its daily departures at this airport over the next few years.

    轉到幻燈片 14。本季度的另一個重要發展是監管機構 ANAC 關於孔戈尼亞斯機場的航班時刻分配的決定。這一新規則的結合,以及在私有化之前增加容量是非常積極的,並鼓勵機場的競爭直接使 Azul 客戶受益。我們相信,通過這些舉措,未來幾年,Azul 在該機場的每日出發人數可能會增加一倍以上。

  • To wrap up on Slide 15, I couldn't be proud of our entire Azul team. We are running an incredible operation, as David noted. We're the most on-time airline in the Americas, our customers love to fly us and our crew members love their work. We're executing on our fleet transformation plan and the demand environment has never been stronger. Our business units are all producing record revenues, and we are emerging as a more efficient airline. We're truly excited about the opportunities ahead of us. With that, we'll turn it over for your questions.

    結束幻燈片 15,我不能為我們整個 Azul 團隊感到驕傲。正如大衛所說,我們正在進行一項令人難以置信的行動。我們是美洲最準時的航空公司,我們的客戶喜歡搭乘我們的航班,我們的機組人員也熱愛他們的工作。我們正在執行我們的車隊轉型計劃,需求環境從未如此強勁。我們的業務部門都創造了創紀錄的收入,我們正在成為一家更有效率的航空公司。我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到非常興奮。有了這個,我們會為你的問題轉過來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Savanthi Syth with Raymond James.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自 Savanthi Syth 和 Raymond James。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Savi, can you go again?

    薩維,你能再去一次嗎?

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • Could you hear me?

    你能聽見我?

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • Okay. Great. I'm not sure what happened there. I was not on mute. Good afternoon, everybody. I'm just curious if you could share any color on the corporate demand recovery side and just the health of leisure demand. I am trying to understand just how sustainable the fare levels and maybe the momentum that John talked about is here.

    好的。偉大的。我不確定那裡發生了什麼。我沒有靜音。大家下午好。我只是好奇你是否可以分享企業需求復蘇方面的任何色彩,以及休閒需求的健康狀況。我試圖了解票價水平的可持續性,也許約翰談到的勢頭就在這裡。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. Savi. Yes, absolutely. Look, overall, we were very happy with the performance in second quarter, increasing RASK 25.5% on a 19% ASP increase is obviously a very strong indication of demand levels. And actually, what's even more exciting is what we're seeing right now. So just the last 2 weeks, for example, as people have come back post-July holidays, the average fare the last 2 weeks have been the highest in our history in terms of the bookings, which has been very, very strong.

    是的。薩維。是的,一點沒錯。看,總體而言,我們對第二季度的表現非常滿意,RASK 增長 25.5%,平均售價增長 19%,這顯然是需求水平的一個非常強烈的指標。實際上,更令人興奮的是我們現在所看到的。例如,就在過去兩週,隨著人們在 7 月假期後回來,就預訂量而言,過去兩週的平均票價是我們歷史上最高的,而且非常非常強勁。

  • It's been corporate and leisure. And so I'll give an example. Our vacations business, Azul Viagens, actually had higher bookings in July than it did in June even though July is the month that you actually travel, which is a really good indication that the leisure market is strong and is already looking ahead to the second half of the year and the summer season.

    這是公司和休閒。所以我舉個例子。我們的假期業務 Azul Viagens 7 月份的預訂量實際上高於 6 月份,儘管 7 月份是您實際旅行的月份,這很好地表明休閒市場強勁並且已經展望下半年年和夏季。

  • Corporate as well is doing -- is coming back strong. We are right now over 100% in corporate revenue between -- about 130% in corporate revenue breaks down to about 80% in corporate volume and plus 50% in corporate average fares. So even with that great performance, there's still more corporate volume recovery that's going to happen in the second half of the year, which is seasonally the strongest. Lots of events. Our group's revenue is right now the highest it's ever been. Our small and medium business revenue is higher than it's ever been. So a lot of great events happening second half of the year and a lot of corporate movement.

    企業也在做——強勢回歸。我們現在的公司收入超過 100%——大約 130% 的公司收入細分為大約 80% 的公司收入,再加上 50% 的公司平均票價。因此,即使有如此出色的表現,下半年仍將出現更多的企業銷量復甦,這是季節性最強的。很多活動。我們集團的收入現在是有史以來最高的。我們的中小型企業收入比以往任何時候都高。因此,今年下半年發生了很多重大事件,還有很多企業活動。

  • And if you look at the ABRACORP data, which is the cooperation of -- the association of corporate travel agencies in June, we had the highest revenue of the 3 airlines in ABRACORP. And our average fare, which already was the highest, actually grew the most as well. And so -- and even when you include that, we are an 81.8% load factor in July. So we're not seeing any traffic pressures in terms of having to sacrifice fares to get traffic for the next -- for the foreseeable future.

    如果你看一下 ABRACORP 的數據,它是 6 月份企業旅行社協會的合作,我們在 ABRACORP 的 3 家航空公司中收入最高。而我們的平均票價,本來就最高的,實際上增長最快。所以 - 即使你把它包括在內,我們在 7 月份的負載率是 81.8%。因此,在可預見的未來,我們沒有看到任何交通壓力,因為我們不得不犧牲票價來獲得下一次的交通流量。

  • And in fact, I think what we're talking internally with our teams is let's keep testing the market. Let's see how much more there is in terms of demand, how much more there is in terms of average fares because the average fares that we are seeing are very, very strong and demand looks to be very sustainable. So I think everything is set up really well.

    事實上,我認為我們在內部與我們的團隊討論的是讓我們繼續測試市場。讓我們看看需求方面還有多少,平均票價方面還有多少,因為我們看到的平均票價非常非常強勁,而且需求看起來非常可持續。所以我認為一切都設置得很好。

  • And finally, if you look -- if you compare our average fares to the last week of February, which was the week before the war, heating oil is 15% above, the dollar is 2% down, and our fares are 52% above. And that gives you an idea of given the seasonality, given these bookings and fair momentum and the macroeconomic support, how much we can improve going forward.

    最後,如果你看 - 如果你將我們的平均票價與 2 月的最後一周(即戰前一周)進行比較,取暖油上漲 15%,美元下跌 2%,我們的票價上漲 52% .這讓您了解考慮到季節性、這些預訂和公平的勢頭以及宏觀經濟支持,我們可以在未來改進多少。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • That's very helpful and encouraging. If I might, I realized that there was no EBITDA update in this call. Just curious, I know things have been volatile, and that's maybe a moving target given the moving parts. But curious if you have any updated thoughts there and any financing thoughts related to that?

    這是非常有幫助和鼓舞人心的。如果可以的話,我意識到這次電話會議中沒有 EBITDA 更新。只是好奇,我知道事情一直不穩定,考慮到移動部件,這可能是一個移動目標。但好奇您是否有任何更新的想法以及與此相關的任何融資想法?

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes, Savi. We debated it pretty heavily. And obviously, fuel was up a lot in the second quarter. And these recent fuel price movements, there's a lag in when they kind of come off and we see the benefit. But we just want to reiterate that amazing revenue performance we're having right now, and we feel as strong as ever about this business going forward. And so nothing has fundamentally changed. Is it going to be BRL 4 billion? Is it going to be slightly below that?

    是的,薩維。我們對此進行了激烈的辯論。顯然,第二季度的燃料價格上漲了很多。而這些最近的燃料價格走勢,當它們開始下降時會有滯後,我們看到了好處。但我們只想重申我們現在擁有的驚人的收入表現,我們對這項業務的發展感到一如既往的強大。因此,一切都沒有從根本上改變。會是 40 億雷亞爾嗎?會不會略低於這個?

  • We're not that far away. We still have half the year to go, and we feel very strong about the business overall. We just didn't want to put a number out there, given that we're 45 days away from an election and things like that. But nothing has fundamentally changed in our business. We feel very strong about where we are today. And I think that, that sets us up nicely for 2023 and beyond. And so we feel very good. I think the cash flow generation that we had in the quarter is a testament to just how strong this business is overall. And I think a lot of people are concerned about that and focus on that. There's a lot of positive things in the seasonally weakest quarter of the year with fuel prices that have never been seen before in Brazil. Remember, when fuel is at $140 a barrel, 14 years ago, the BRL was at 2:1. Now the BRL at 5:1. So we've been able to significantly increase fares.

    我們並不遙遠。我們還有半年的時間,我們對整體業務感覺非常強勁。鑑於我們距離選舉和類似的事情還有 45 天,我們只是不想在那裡公佈一個數字。但我們的業務並沒有發生根本性的變化。我們對我們今天所處的位置感到非常強烈。我認為,這讓我們為 2023 年及以後做好了準備。所以我們感覺很好。我認為我們在本季度產生的現金流證明了這項業務的整體實力。而且我認為很多人都對此感到擔憂並專注於這一點。在一年中季節性最疲軟的季度,有很多積極的事情發生,燃油價格在巴西是前所未有的。請記住,14 年前,當燃料價格為每桶 140 美元時,巴西雷亞爾為 2:1。現在巴西雷亞爾為 5:1。所以我們已經能夠顯著提高票價。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes, Savi, this is Alex. We see -- and I think a lot of you agree and we see that in the models, this is essentially a steady state 30% EBITDA business. We see it when we talk to you, some of you have us in the high 20s, some of you have us in the low 30s, but obviously not this year. And I think that's the challenge. We know that steady state. We are a business that can generate that much EBITDA, that much operational cash. And with our size today, that would actually mean about BRL 5 billion of EBITDA in the year. But it is admittedly hard with everything that's going on with fuel with what we have 2 years of a pandemic of kind of nailing down exactly how much of that recovery and how much of our full profitability potential we can generate within a calendar year.

    是的,薩維,這是亞歷克斯。我們看到 - 我想你們中的很多人都同意,我們在模型中看到,這基本上是一個穩定的 30% EBITDA 業務。當我們與您交談時,我們看到了這一點,你們中的一些人擁有 20 多歲的我們,有些人擁有 30 多歲的我們,但今年顯然不是。我認為這就是挑戰。我們知道這種穩定狀態。我們是一家可以產生那麼多 EBITDA、那麼多運營現金的企業。以我們今天的規模,這實際上意味著今年的 EBITDA 約為 50 億雷亞爾。但誠然,對於燃料所發生的一切,我們已經經歷了 2 年的大流行,要確切地確定在一個日曆年內可以產生多少復甦以及我們可以產生多少全部盈利潛力,這無疑是困難的。

  • And when things happen like we had on the day of our last earnings call, when we had the Russian invasion, things shift around, as you mentioned. So like John said, we discussed a lot. It's really about EBITDA. I mean everything else in our guidance is very much on track. And probably our full EBITDA generation capability has shifted 3 or 6 months to the right. But the business remains very solid, and we're proving that we can pass through cost increases to fares. We prove that we can access cash. And I think that's all clear in our Q2 financials.

    正如你所提到的,當事情發生在我們上次財報電話會議那天,當我們遇到俄羅斯入侵時,事情就會發生變化。所以就像約翰說的,我們討論了很多。這真的是關於 EBITDA。我的意思是我們指導中的其他所有內容都非常正常。可能我們的全部 EBITDA 生成能力已經向右移動了 3 或 6 個月。但業務仍然非常穩固,我們正在證明我們可以將成本增加轉嫁到票價上。我們證明我們可以使用現金。我認為這在我們的第二季度財務狀況中都很清楚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Josh Milberg with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Milberg。

  • Joshua Milberg - Equity Analyst

    Joshua Milberg - Equity Analyst

  • Just -- and this relates a little bit to Savi's question on the funding side. But related to the BRL 1.7 billion you highlighted in payments, leases, deferrals, and other items. I just wanted to ask if you could touch on what you're expecting over the remainder of the year and also the potential for new deferrals of payments to lessors and to suppliers. And if you could, in a little more detail -- and I think this question is for Alex -- just give an update on the different funding options that you're looking at today and also touch on the status of the codeshare with United. If you could address that, that would be great.

    只是 - 這與 Savi 在資金方面的問題有點相關。但與您在付款、租賃、延期和其他項目中強調的 17 億雷亞爾有關。我只是想問一下你是否可以談談你對今年剩餘時間的期望,以及新的向出租人和供應商付款的可能性。如果可以的話,更詳細一點——我認為這個問題是給亞歷克斯的——只需提供有關您今天正在查看的不同資金選擇的最新信息,並涉及與美聯航代碼共享的狀態。如果你能解決這個問題,那就太好了。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. We'll talk about United. Josh, I think a lot of this is a bit of a circular reference because I think we've demonstrated that we'll adapt to whatever conditions are thrown at us. If we generate more EBITDA, we can spend all of the CapEx that we want to spend, that we would like to spend to prepare for the future, and we don't need to access significant cash from banks or suppliers. If we generate less EBITDA, then we can adjust on the CapEx side, and we can certainly access cash if we need to.

    是的。我們將談論曼聯。喬希,我認為其中很多內容有點循環引用,因為我認為我們已經證明我們將適應任何情況。如果我們產生更多的 EBITDA,我們就可以花掉我們想花的所有資本支出,我們想花這些錢為未來做準備,我們不需要從銀行或供應商那裡獲得大量現金。如果我們產生更少的 EBITDA,那麼我們可以在資本支出方面進行調整,如果需要,我們當然可以獲取現金。

  • Obviously -- and that's not even including the capital markets. The capital markets were available to us, which today we don't think they are, that's the main avenue, the main source of capital. But if we do need cash more than we expect and if the capital markets are not available to us, which at some time, they will be, then we'll adjust. We demonstrated in this quarter that we can access capital from our banks. We can maintain our payables around 100 days, which is the guidance that we gave you pretty much in the beginning of the pandemic, that payables would go up because we've got a lot of support from our partners, but then they would gradually converge down to 100, which is roughly where they are today. They can go up maybe 10 days, go down about 10 days. But we know that's a reliable source of working capital. And then we know that we can count on our suppliers because our suppliers can count on the heavy operational cash flow generation that we have. They make a lot of money by supporting Azul. We can make a lot of money together going forward and so we know that we can access it.

    顯然——這甚至不包括資本市場。資本市場對我們來說是可用的,但今天我們認為它們不可用,這是主要的途徑,主要的資本來源。但是,如果我們確實需要比預期更多的現金,並且如果我們無法使用資本市場(有時會出現這種情況),那麼我們將進行調整。我們在本季度證明了我們可以從銀行獲得資金。我們可以將應付賬款維持在 100 天左右,這是我們在大流行開始時給您的指導,應付賬款會上升,因為我們得到了合作夥伴的大量支持,但隨後它們會逐漸收斂下降到 100,這大致是它們今天的位置。他們可能會上漲 10 天,下跌約 10 天。但我們知道這是可靠的營運資金來源。然後我們知道我們可以依靠我們的供應商,因為我們的供應商可以依靠我們擁有的大量運營現金流。他們通過支持 Azul 賺了很多錢。我們可以一起賺很多錢,所以我們知道我們可以使用它。

  • So the answer, Josh, I think is we -- I think it's more in the past than in the future because we got all the forecasts wrong. We underestimated how quickly demand could come back. Nobody saw what could happen with oil prices and with the war in Europe. So it's hard first to predict in the future what is going to happen and what will need to happen. But I think it's clear from the past and especially from this quarter that whatever happens, we will be able to access whatever cash we need.

    所以答案,喬希,我認為是我們——我認為這更多的是過去而不是未來,因為我們所有的預測都是錯誤的。我們低估了需求恢復的速度。沒有人看到油價和歐洲戰爭會發生什麼。因此,首先很難預測未來會發生什麼以及需要發生什麼。但我認為從過去,尤其是從本季度來看,無論發生什麼,我們都將能夠獲得我們需要的任何現金。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Hey, Josh. I just want to reiterate a couple of points. This business is generating billions of operating cash flow. We showed a number today of BRL 4 billion in cash and immediate liquidity if you include our receivables, more than double what it was in 2019. And so we've positioned ourselves in a very good position going forward. If I were to tell you, we were going to be up 50% compared to 2019 in the year 2020 or 2021, you would have thought it was smoking something. And so we delivered way above the expectations of any analysts in terms of revenue, and we feel very strong about our business going forward. And so I think we're very bullish, and I think our partners are as bullish as ever on the (inaudible) and I think the way we showed cash flow generation in the second quarter, it beat everybody's model as well. And so we feel very strong about our ability to execute.

    嘿,喬什。我只想重申幾點。這項業務正在產生數十億的運營現金流。如果包括我們的應收賬款,我們今天展示了 40 億巴西雷亞爾的現金和即時流動性,是 2019 年的兩倍多。因此,我們已經將自己定位在一個非常好的位置。如果我告訴你,在 2020 年或 2021 年,我們將比 2019 年增長 50%,你會認為這是在吸煙。因此,我們在收入方面的表現遠遠超出了任何分析師的預期,我們對未來的業務充滿信心。所以我認為我們非常看好,我認為我們的合作夥伴一如既往地看好(聽不清),我認為我們在第二季度顯示現金流產生的方式也超過了每個人的模型。因此,我們對自己的執行能力感到非常強烈。

  • Remember, Josh, we went through a period of 8 months with no revenue and we got through it. We had our crew members, everybody kind of rallied around. This is a fantastic business that's delivering great results, delivering unbelievable on-time performance that's got crew members engaged, and so we feel very good about our business on a go-forward basis. And so cash will take care of itself as we continue to run a great operation and continue to raise revenue.

    請記住,喬希,我們經歷了 8 個月沒有收入的時期,但我們度過了難關。我們有我們的船員,每個人都聚集在一起。這是一項了不起的業務,它帶來了巨大的成果,提供了令人難以置信的準時表現,讓工作人員參與其中,因此我們對我們的業務感到非常滿意。因此,隨著我們繼續開展出色的業務並繼續增加收入,現金將自行處理。

  • As for United Airlines, United has been a great partner of ours. They've been a partner for a long time. We're still talking to them, but there's also other great partners out there that we're talking to. We see what's happening with JetBlue in Fort Lauderdale with Spirit, really important partner of ours as we add our international flights into Fort Lauderdale. There's a lot of feed that comes in there that strengthens our long-haul network. And so we're going to continue talking to our partners, but the codeshare with United stays in place, and I think they're happy with it, we're happy with it.

    至於美聯航,美聯航一直是我們的重要合作夥伴。他們已經是很長時間的合作夥伴了。我們仍在與他們交談,但我們也在與其他優秀的合作夥伴交談。當我們將國際航班添加到勞德代爾堡時,我們與 Spirit 一起看到了勞德代爾堡捷藍航空的情況,這是我們非常重要的合作夥伴。那裡有很多信息可以加強我們的長途網絡。所以我們將繼續與我們的合作夥伴交談,但與美聯航的代碼共享仍然存在,我認為他們對此感到滿意,我們對此感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Alejandro Zamacona with Credit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Alejandro Zamacona。

  • Alejandro Zamacona Urquiza - Research Analyst

    Alejandro Zamacona Urquiza - Research Analyst

  • Regarding pricing and yield environment, is it fair to expect an even stronger yield for the second half, considering that there is usually a lag to reflect the higher fuel costs? And also, do you have any expectations beyond what we can see in '22, considering eventual cost normalization in fuel?

    關於定價和收益率環境,考慮到燃料成本上漲通常存在滯後性,預計下半年收益率會更高嗎?而且,考慮到燃料的最終成本正常化,您是否有超出我們在 22 年看到的預期?

  • Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Hi, Alejandro. Regarding the pricing environment, good bookings at high fares will lead to great flown revenue at high fares. And also we're supported by the seasonality second half of the year. So in terms of loan revenue, yes, it is very much possible that you will see higher yields and higher average fares in 3Q and 4Q. And that's certainly what we're looking towards and the seasonality, the corporate recovery, the demand environment, all of the economic activity that will happen in Brazil over the next 6 months definitely points to that. So it's -- we are getting into our peak season, our spring and summer, which is historically the best seasons of the year, which is very, very supportive of this current pricing environment and even a further improvement in the pricing environment.

    嗨,亞歷杭德羅。關於定價環境,高票價的良好預訂將帶來高票價的巨大飛行收入。此外,我們還受到下半年季節性因素的支持。所以就貸款收入而言,是的,你很有可能在第三季度和第四季度看到更高的收益率和更高的平均票價。這當然是我們所期待的,而季節性、企業復甦、需求環境以及未來 6 個月將在巴西發生的所有經濟活動都明確表明了這一點。所以它 - 我們正在進入我們的旺季,我們的春季和夏季,這是歷史上一年中最好的季節,這非常非常支持當前的定價環境,甚至是定價環境的進一步改善。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. And on the cost side, as we all know, there is a lag between what we're seeing on the screen in terms of oil prices and the currency and the price that we pay for jet fuel. So July and August jet fuel prices will probably be our peak from what we can see right now. But then you will see a downward trend in jet fuel prices, assuming everything stays the way it is or even if things improve from where they are. So we could have a very favorable environment in the second half with fares going up due to the strong demand environment and the positive seasonality and fuel prices going down from the improvement that we have already seen taking place.

    是的。在成本方面,眾所周知,我們在屏幕上看到的油價和貨幣與我們為航空燃料支付的價格之間存在滯後。因此,從我們現在可以看到的情況來看,7 月和 8 月的航空燃油價格可能會是我們的頂峰。但隨後你會看到航空燃油價格呈下降趨勢,假設一切都保持原狀,或者即使情況有所改善。因此,由於強勁的需求環境以及積極的季節性和燃油價格從我們已經看到的改善情況下下降,我們在下半年可能會有一個非常有利的環境。

  • Alejandro Zamacona Urquiza - Research Analyst

    Alejandro Zamacona Urquiza - Research Analyst

  • My second question, if I may, in terms of capacity, do you have any preliminary expectation for 2023?

    我的第二個問題,如果可以的話,就產能而言,您對2023年有初步的預期嗎?

  • Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. We haven't closed our plan yet, but you can expect something similar to what we're going to do in 2022 versus 2019. We expect to finish this year between 10% and 12% over 2019. So possibly something similar in 2023 over 2022.

    是的。我們還沒有結束我們的計劃,但你可以期待與我們在 2022 年和 2019 年做的類似的事情。我們預計今年將比 2019 年完成 10% 到 12%。所以可能在 2023 年完成類似的事情2022 年。

  • Alejandro Zamacona Urquiza - Research Analyst

    Alejandro Zamacona Urquiza - Research Analyst

  • Do you mean something similar in terms of the capacity in terms of 2019 or in terms of growth?

    您是指 2019 年的產能還是增長方面的類似情況?

  • Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • 2023 versus 2022 will be similar with growth. 2022 versus 2019.

    2023 年與 2022 年的增長將相似。 2022 年與 2019 年相比。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. So somewhere in the low teens, I think it would be what -- kind of a working assumption. We still need to nail it down, and we'll see if we provide some firmer guidance. But I think that's -- with our fleet transformation, if you remember, we're going to be essentially replacing still a lot of old-generation jets with next-generation jets. They have more seats, they have lower rent and they burn less fuel than the old-generation aircraft. So we can increase capacity by keeping the fleet essentially stable. You will see more seats flying. We can get higher utilization of these assets. And we could even stimulate fares with the lower unit cost that those aircraft will provide. So it's something we're very excited about. And most of our growth comes from that, from the upgauging, and most of the growth, if not all of the growth happens in the markets where we are strong. It's in the Azul network. It's not going to stealing share from other competitors. It's really upgauging in the routes that we already fly.

    是的。因此,在青少年時期的某個地方,我認為這將是一種可行的假設。我們仍然需要確定它,我們將看看我們是否提供一些更堅定的指導。但我認為,隨著我們的機隊轉型,如果你還記得的話,我們將基本上用下一代噴氣式飛機取代許多舊式噴氣式飛機。與老一代飛機相比,它們的座位更多,租金更低,燃料消耗更少。因此,我們可以通過保持機隊基本穩定來增加容量。你會看到更多的座位在飛。我們可以得到更高的利用這些資產。我們甚至可以用這些飛機提供的較低單位成本來刺激票價。所以這是我們非常興奮的事情。我們的大部分增長來自於這一點,來自於上調,以及大部分增長,如果不是所有的增長都發生在我們強大的市場中。它在 Azul 網絡中。它不會從其他競爭對手那裡竊取份額。在我們已經飛行的航線上,它確實在升級。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Pablo Monsivais with Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Pablo Monsivais。

  • Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst

    Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst

  • I have a quick question on the lease payables. I mean I see the number that you provided in your financial statements, but I just -- for modeling purposes and capital purposes, I wanted to see if that's the right number we should think about? Or I remember that word on deferred payments that we have to take into consideration, and you have already talked about some negotiations with the lessors. Can you just shed some light in terms of lease payments for next year?

    我有一個關於應付租金的快速問題。我的意思是我看到了你在財務報表中提供的數字,但我只是——出於建模目的和資本目的,我想看看這是否是我們應該考慮的正確數字?或者我記得我們必須考慮的關於延期付款的說法,你已經談到了與出租人的一些談判。您能否就明年的租賃付款情況稍作說明?

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Sure. I think the way -- I think the easiest way to think about it, Pablo, is our steady state rent under current size and current foreign exchange, it's roughly BRL 3.2 billion. You'll see that this year, we're actually going to pay more than that because we had the second wave negotiation with lessors, where the first time we would negotiate with lessors we negotiated a big number with a big extension because obviously, there was a big impact from the pandemic from COVID-19. But we didn't assume a second wave. When the second wave happened, we negotiated a shorter deferral for a shorter period of time, which was essentially shifting some rents from 2021 into 2022.

    當然。我認為這個方法——我認為最簡單的方法是,Pablo,在當前規模和當前外匯匯率下,我們的穩定狀態租金約為 32 億巴西雷亞爾。你會看到,今年,我們實際上會支付更多的費用,因為我們與出租人進行了第二波談判,第一次與出租人談判時,我們談判了一個很大的數字,並有很大的延期,因為很明顯,那裡受到 COVID-19 大流行的巨大影響。但我們沒有假設第二波。當第二波發生時,我們協商了更短的延期時間,這實質上是將一些租金從 2021 年轉移到了 2022 年。

  • So in 2022, we're already paying more than that 3.2 million, and we're paying roughly what we're going to pay in 2023 because in 2023, we start paying the first deferral of leases, which will increase our steady state leases by about BRL 500 million to BRL 600 million. So essentially, we're paying about BRL 3.8 million this year, and we should be paying around BRL 3.8 million next year as well. That's roughly, I think, a good way to model the annual rent payments.

    因此,到 2022 年,我們已經支付了超過 320 萬的費用,而且我們支付的費用大致相當於 2023 年的費用,因為在 2023 年,我們開始支付第一次延期租約,這將增加我們的穩態租約約 5 億雷亞爾至 6 億雷亞爾。所以基本上,我們今年支付了大約 380 萬雷亞爾,明年我們也應該支付大約 380 萬雷亞爾。我認為,這大致是模擬年租金支付的好方法。

  • Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst

    Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst

  • Perfect. And I have another question, if I may. I mean the questions have -- we have asked a lot about the sustainability of your yields, they have been actually very impressive. How are you seeing the competitive environment? I mean, are the other guys actually following you? Are you seeing a rational behavior, or do you think that some of your competitors may take advantage of just charging to first to be more competitive and fuel some of market share?

    完美的。如果可以的話,我還有一個問題。我的意思是這些問題——我們已經問了很多關於你們產量可持續性的問題,它們實際上非常令人印象深刻。您如何看待競爭環境?我的意思是,其他人真的在跟踪你嗎?您是否看到了一種理性的行為,或者您是否認為您的一些競爭對手可能會利用只是先收費來提高競爭力並增加一些市場份額?

  • Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Pablo, I think the industry overall is pretty competitive. I think that all of the competitors, all of the airlines are trying to do what's right I think mostly within their own networks and within their strengths. And I think that what the industry has achieved in terms of fares since the start of -- end of February has been great and remarkable actually. We have the benefit that we are alone in so much of our network. So we can always do it ourselves if we need to, and we do those changes all the time. So we are less dependent on them in controlling our own destiny. But I would say that overall, the industry has been pretty disciplined. And I think we'll continue to be so. I think we're all looking for good results here.

    巴勃羅,我認為整個行業的競爭非常激烈。我認為所有的競爭對手,所有的航空公司都在努力做我認為主要在他們自己的網絡和他們的優勢範圍內的事情。而且我認為自 2 月底以來該行業在票價方面所取得的成就實際上非常出色。我們的好處是,在我們的網絡中,我們是孤獨的。因此,如果需要,我們總是可以自己做,而且我們一直在做這些改變。因此,我們在控制自己的命運方面較少依賴它們。但我想說,總的來說,這個行業一直很自律。我認為我們將繼續如此。我想我們都在這裡尋找好的結果。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • And Pablo, I would just want to add, we're in a hospital fuel environment, -- and the guy that has the most next-gen aircraft is in a privileged position. And so if you say 70% of our ASKs are coming from NEOs and E2s and our competitors are significantly less than that, significantly less than that. They need higher fares. And so I think that we don't see anybody doing crazy things going after market share because it's not in their best interest to do it because they would bleed significantly because they don't have the right aircraft type given the hostile fuel environment where we are today.

    還有巴勃羅,我只想補充一點,我們處於醫院燃料環境中,擁有最多下一代飛機的人處於特權地位。因此,如果您說我們 70% 的 ASK 來自 NEO 和 E2,而我們的競爭對手遠低於此,遠低於此。他們需要更高的票價。所以我認為我們沒有看到任何人為了追求市場份額而做瘋狂的事情,因為這樣做不符合他們的最佳利益,因為考慮到我們所處的惡劣燃料環境,他們沒有合適的飛機類型,他們會大量流血。是今天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Daniel McKenzie Seaport Global.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Daniel McKenzie Seaport Global。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • Congrats on the quarter here. So to put a finer point on the pricing feel sequentially stronger yields in the back half of the year that you've kind of been referencing to prior questions, can you get the profitability in the fourth quarter? And then just to put a finer point on cash, excluding accounts receivable, so cash in the checking account, so to speak, short-term investments, where do you expect to end the year?

    恭喜這裡的季度。因此,為了更好地說明定價,您會在今年後半段感受到連續更高的收益率,您一直在參考之前的問題,您能否在第四季度獲得盈利能力?然後只是對現金進行更詳細的說明,不包括應收賬款,所以支票賬戶中的現金,可以說是短期投資,你預計年底會在哪裡?

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Okay. Let me start with the cash, Dan. Thanks for the congratulations. We really model our cash, looking at cash plus receivables because I can transform my receivables into cash. I would just waste money doing that by paying interest expense that I don't need. But like we've said, I think those of you that are familiar with the way we sell tickets in Brazil, a lot of the tickets are sold in installments and credit cards. That credit card, once we've flown that ticket and we fly that ticket fairly quickly because Brazilians buy very close in. So the majority of our credit card receivables, we've already flown that revenue. And so I can call the bank in the morning and by lunchtime, the money will be in my account. But I'm going to pay risk-free rate plus 1 or 2 percentage points, which if I don't need to do that, I won't do that.

    好的。讓我從現金開始,丹。感謝您的祝賀。我們真正模擬我們的現金,查看現金加上應收賬款,因為我可以將我的應收賬款轉化為現金。我只會通過支付我不需要的利息費用來浪費錢。但就像我們說過的,我認為你們當中熟悉我們在巴西銷售門票的方式的人,很多門票都是分期付款和信用卡出售的。那張信用卡,一旦我們飛了那張機票,我們很快就飛了那張機票,因為巴西人買得非常接近。所以我們的大部分信用卡應收賬款,我們已經用了這筆收入。所以我可以在早上和午餐時間打電話給銀行,錢就會到我的賬戶裡。但我將支付無風險利率加上 1 或 2 個百分點,如果我不需要這樣做,我不會那樣做。

  • So what we're -- and I think we mentioned that in the previous calls. I mean, a lot of the cash position at the end of the year will depend on EBITDA, will depend on oil prices (inaudible). We feel comfortable that we will have a cash position that is roughly where we ended 2019, if not above. We've been actually carrying more cash than we had pre-pandemic. If we have as much cash as we had pre-pandemic -- I mean, some of you may remember that when we were before the pandemic, we were getting some suggestions from investors to actually start paying dividends and returning cash to shareholders. So the cash position that we had pre-pandemic was a (technical difficulty) and so if we can end any quarter after the pandemic with as much cash as we had then, it is a very healthy cash position.

    所以我們是什麼——我認為我們在之前的電話會議中提到了這一點。我的意思是,年底的很多現金頭寸將取決於 EBITDA,將取決於油價(聽不清)。我們感到很舒服,我們的現金頭寸大致相當於我們在 2019 年結束時的水平,如果不是高於的話。實際上,我們攜帶的現金比大流行前還要多。如果我們擁有與大流行前一樣多的現金-我的意思是,你們中的一些人可能還記得,在大流行之前,我們從投資者那裡得到了一些建議,以實際開始支付股息並向股東返還現金。因此,我們在大流行前的現金狀況是一個(技術困難),因此,如果我們可以在大流行之後的任何一個季度結束時擁有與當時一樣多的現金,那將是一個非常健康的現金狀況。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Dan, just going to highlight, we were 1.5 turns down in leverage Q1 into Q2, we're going to be down again as we go into 3Q and into 4Q. And so the use of the cash is to deleverage. And so the operation, as I stated earlier, is generating an enormous amount of cash. And so any cash uses above and beyond that is to deleverage the business, which is a good use of cash.

    丹,只是要強調一下,我們在第一季度到第二季度的槓桿率下降了 1.5 倍,隨著我們進入第三季度和第四季度,我們將再次下降。所以使用現金是為了去槓桿。因此,正如我之前所說,這項業務正在產生大量現金。因此,任何超出此範圍的現金使用都是為了使業務去槓桿化,這是對現金的一種很好的利用。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. And the 4Q profitability is close to the EBITDA question. I mean if we delivered on BRL 4 billion EBITDA, that will tell you kind of what the 4Q profitability will be. I think our difficulty, again, with nailing down the short-term profitability leads to a difficulty in saying exactly how much. But 4Q is normally our best quarter in the year, everything that we see points that 4Q 2022 should be the best quarter in the year in terms of profitability. Fares are going to be up because of seasonality and because of the strong demand environment, assuming oil and effect stay where they are, fuel prices that we will be paying in the fourth quarter will be down from what we paid in Q2 and Q3. And so that should point to a very profitable Q4, which should give us very great momentum into 2023 as well. So we're very excited about that.

    是的。第四季度的盈利能力接近 EBITDA 問題。我的意思是,如果我們實現了 40 億巴西雷亞爾的 EBITDA,那將告訴你第四季度的盈利能力將如何。我認為,我們在確定短期盈利能力方面的困難再次導致我們難以確切地說出多少。但第四季度通常是我們一年中最好的季度,我們所看到的一切都表明,就盈利能力而言,2022 年第四季度應該是一年中最好的季度。由於季節性和強勁的需求環境,票價將上漲,假設石油和影響保持不變,我們將在第四季度支付的燃料價格將低於我們在第二季度和第三季度支付的價格。所以這應該指向一個非常有利可圖的第四季度,這也應該給我們在 2023 年帶來很大的動力。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • And Brazil is expected to win the World Cup in the fourth quarter as well, Dan, (inaudible) celebrating after that happened. So we're pretty excited about that.

    預計巴西也將在第四節贏得世界杯,丹(聽不清)在那之后慶祝。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • A lot to drive profitability there, right? Well, thanks for that, I appreciate it. In the script, you mentioned a fleet transformation announcement coming next week. So I'm not sure if the numbers are correct in the financial statements this morning, but as best I can tell, it looks like there's about 133 aircraft on firm order. And I guess my next question is, how many are coming in 2023? How many in 2024? And how many do you plan to retire? And what does that imply for '23 growth and CapEx? It's from the financial statements, it looks like CapEx should be flat next year, but I'm not quite sure how to triangulate that with the script this morning.

    有很多東西可以提高那裡的盈利能力,對吧?嗯,謝謝你,我很感激。在劇本中,您提到了下週即將發布的車隊轉型公告。所以我不確定今天早上財務報表中的數字是否正確,但據我所知,看起來大約有 133 架飛機在確認訂單。我想我的下一個問題是,2023 年會有多少人? 2024年有多少?你打算退休多少人?這對 23 年的增長和資本支出意味著什麼?它來自財務報表,看起來明年資本支出應該持平,但我不太確定今天早上如何用腳本進行三角測量。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Dan, it's our best interest to accelerate fleet transformation, and that's what we're going to be looking at. So there's opportunities in the market. You know we have a lot of aircraft that are going to do lease returns over the next 36 months. And so we're looking at ways to potentially accelerate that. And that's what David was referencing and David always gets ahead of himself and kind of pushes us there. And so -- but there's a lot of good news on that front. So as we look to get into 2023, I think you're going to see us flying more next-generation aircraft. And so as Alex said, maybe net were about the same or up a couple of shelves, but with a lot more next-generation ASKs in there, which, again, further pushes our competitive advantage in the market.

    丹,加速機隊轉型是我們的最大利益,這也是我們將要關注的。所以市場上有機會。你知道我們有很多飛機將在未來 36 個月內進行租賃退貨。因此,我們正在尋找可能加速這一進程的方法。這就是大衛所引用的,大衛總是超越自己,把我們推到那裡。所以 - 但在這方面有很多好消息。因此,當我們展望 2023 年時,我想你會看到我們駕駛更多的下一代飛機。正如亞歷克斯所說,也許 net 差不多或上架了幾個架子,但那裡有更多的下一代 ASK,這再次進一步推動了我們在市場上的競爭優勢。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. And I think that's another source of flexibility that we negotiated during the pandemic. I think we're comfortable keeping the fleet constant. I think because we have the ability to accelerate deliveries. There's certainly enough demand for us to keep the fleet constant. And then we don't need to overcommit to capacity. And as we see demand firming up and then we know that we can count demand for a long period of time, then we can accelerate additional aircraft from our order book. So I think that's a very rational way to manage the possible volatility that we can see in demand in Brazil. Kind of be essentially short ASKs, but have the ability to increase ASKs easily once demand firms out.

    是的。我認為這是我們在大流行期間協商的另一個靈活性來源。我認為我們很樂意保持艦隊不變。我認為是因為我們有能力加速交付。我們肯定有足夠的需求來保持艦隊的穩定。然後我們不需要過度使用容量。當我們看到需求穩定,然後我們知道我們可以計算很長一段時間的需求時,我們可以從我們的訂單中加速增加飛機。因此,我認為這是一種非常合理的方式來管理我們在巴西看到的需求可能出現的波動。基本上是短期 ASK,但一旦要求公司退出,就有能力輕鬆增加 ASK。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • Understood. And then how do we think about CapEx next year?

    明白了。那麼我們如何看待明年的資本支出?

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • I think if we assume something flat to this year, that's reasonable. As I think most of you know, our CapEx is essentially maintenance CapEx. The delivery of aircraft in 2022 and 2023 will all be operating leases. So there's no cash outflow regarding those deliveries. And so it's really engine maintenance that we're talking about when we're talking about CapEx. So you can assume something flat to this year.

    我認為,如果我們假設今年的情況持平,那是合理的。我想你們大多數人都知道,我們的資本支出本質上是維護資本支出。 2022年和2023年交付的飛機都將是經營租賃。因此,這些交付沒有現金流出。因此,當我們談論資本支出時,我們真正談論的是引擎維護。所以你可以假設今年的情況是平的。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • And a portion of that can always be financed as well. I think that that's something that you need to keep in your model as well.

    其中一部分也總是可以融資的。我認為這也是你需要保留在模型中的東西。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg。

  • Shannon Doherty - Research Associate

    Shannon Doherty - Research Associate

  • This is actually Shannon Doherty on for Mike. Great job this quarter. Alex, maybe one for you. I think around this time last year, you were expecting your unit costs, excluding fuel, to be below 2019 levels for the full year. Obviously, a lot has happened since then on the macro side. And as mentioned before, but with the progress that Azul made on productivity gains and the cost savings combined with the 10% to 12% growth rate that you kind of outlay for '23, would you say that this target is achievable by next year?

    這實際上是邁克的香農多爾蒂。本季度做得很好。亞歷克斯,也許給你一個。我認為大約在去年這個時候,您預計全年的單位成本(不包括燃料)將低於 2019 年的水平。顯然,從那以後在宏觀方面發生了很多事情。如前所述,但是隨著 Azul 在生產力提高和成本節約方面取得的進展,再加上您在 23 年投入的 10% 到 12% 的增長率,您認為這個目標可以在明年實現嗎?

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. So I think there's certainly further improvement on our unit cost that we can get just by the fleet transformation. Like I said, we're going to pay less rent on each E2 that comes in, then we pay on each E1 that leaves. They will generate more ASKs, they have more seats and they burn less fuel, and they're more productive as well. So we can get more productive at airports. We can get more productive with pilots and flight attendants. And then we're going to continue pursuing opportunities like we did over the last couple of years. I think we are encouraged by the fact that even though we consider ourselves an efficient airline, wherever you look, there is opportunity. You can manage processes better, you can invest in technology. There's just a lot of stuff that we're going to continue pursuing essentially forever to keep our costs as low as possible because that is necessary for us to continue expanding margins.

    是的。所以我認為我們的單位成本肯定會進一步提高,我們可以通過車隊轉型來獲得。就像我說的,我們將為每個進入的 E2 支付更少的租金,然後我們為每個離開的 E1 支付。他們會產生更多的 ASK,他們有更多的座位,他們燃燒的燃料更少,而且他們的生產力也更高。因此,我們可以在機場提高工作效率。我們可以通過飛行員和空乘人員提高工作效率。然後我們將繼續像過去幾年那樣尋求機會。我認為我們感到鼓舞的是,即使我們認為自己是一家高效的航空公司,但無論你看哪裡,都有機會。您可以更好地管理流程,您可以投資於技術。我們將永遠追求很多東西,以保持我們的成本盡可能低,因為這對於我們繼續擴大利潤是必要的。

  • So you can count on the unit cost reduction, fleet transformation, and you can count on us continue to pursue other efficiency opportunities around the organization.

    因此,您可以依靠降低單位成本、進行車隊轉型,並且可以依靠我們繼續在組織內尋求其他效率機會。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • I just want to highlight, we've got very engaged crew members. Engaged crew members are helping us to deliver a fantastic experience. I mean, you see the problems that the U.S. carriers are having, European carriers are having right now, and look at what a great operation we're running in more than 150 cities in Brazil with a diversified fleet type. And so a couple of things. We're building new hanger in Confins. And so we saw all of the benefit that our hanger provided for us in Campinas. We're going to do that again because we have more work to be done. So there's more things that we can bring in-house at a much cheaper cost. And so I think having great people that are very engaged in working with us provides for additional opportunities to make this airline a much more efficient airline going forward.

    我只想強調,我們有非常敬業的工作人員。敬業的工作人員正在幫助我們提供美妙的體驗。我的意思是,你看到美國航空公司面臨的問題,歐洲航空公司現在面臨的問題,看看我們在巴西 150 多個城市運營的多樣化機隊類型是多麼出色。還有幾件事。我們正在孔芬斯建造新的衣架。因此,我們看到了我們的衣架在坎皮納斯為我們提供的所有好處。我們將再次這樣做,因為我們還有更多工作要做。因此,我們可以以更便宜的成本在內部帶來更多的東西。因此,我認為擁有與我們密切合作的優秀人才提供了額外的機會,使這家航空公司成為未來更高效的航空公司。

  • Shannon Doherty - Research Associate

    Shannon Doherty - Research Associate

  • Got it. That's helpful. And maybe to Abhi or John, are you able to comment on how you plan to use the additional (inaudible) slots that you expect to get over the coming years or quarters? And I understand it's a busy airport in downtown San Paulo, but it also has a strong corporate foothold. So any color that you can add would be helpful.

    知道了。這很有幫助。也許對 Abhi 或 John,您能否評論一下您計劃如何使用您希望在未來幾年或幾個季度獲得的額外(聽不清)插槽?我知道這是聖保羅市中心的一個繁忙的機場,但它也擁有強大的企業立足點。因此,您可以添加的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

  • Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes, Shannon, we haven't obviously finalized our network, but you can expect the large business markets that we don't currently fly to and also flying to our hubs. We'd like to connect downtown Sao Paulo to our hubs because that provides connectivity and access to destinations that today, those customers don't have. And so it will be a combination of the 2, some of the large business markets but also some very much flying to our hubs that further strengthens our network.

    是的,香農,我們顯然還沒有最終確定我們的網絡,但您可以期待我們目前沒有飛往的大型商業市場,也可以飛往我們的樞紐。我們希望將聖保羅市中心與我們的樞紐連接起來,因為這樣可以提供連接和訪問當今那些客戶所沒有的目的地的通道。因此,這將是兩者的結合,一些大型商業市場以及一些非常飛往我們的樞紐的航班,進一步加強了我們的網絡。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Hi, Shannon. If I could just add, we've got several customers that experienced Azul for the first time when we went into Congonhas. And now they fly to Lisbon. They fly to Lauderdale. They experienced a great product onboard the aircraft, the free WiFi, the snacks, the TV, and they said, "Wow, I'm willing to go out to Viracopos. I'm willing to go to other destinations." They get into your loyalty program, they get to a credit card. And so as you expand the Congonhas Airport, there's just more and more people that Azul becomes their #1 airline. And I think that's fantastic for us going forward.

    嗨,香農。如果我能補充一點,當我們進入孔戈尼亞斯時,我們有幾位客戶第一次體驗了 Azul。現在他們飛往里斯本。他們飛往勞德代爾。他們在飛機上體驗了很棒的產品、免費 WiFi、小吃、電視,他們說:“哇,我願意去 Viracopos。我願意去其他目的地。”他們進入您的忠誠度計劃,獲得信用卡。因此,隨著您擴建孔戈尼亞斯機場,越來越多的人將 Azul 成為他們的第一航空公司。我認為這對我們前進來說太棒了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Felipe (inaudible), Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Felipe(聽不清)。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • So I have 2 questions on my side. One is regarding non-ticket revenue. Could you share some -- your expectations on medium to long-term possibility of revenue generation and revenue growth in terms of those opportunities like Cargo, TudoAzul et cetera? And the second question is regarding expectations on more M&As in South America markets.

    所以我有兩個問題。一是關於非門票收入。您能否分享一些 - 您對 Cargo、TudoAzul 等機會的中長期創收和收入增長可能性的期望?第二個問題是關於對南美市場更多併購的預期。

  • Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. I can start with the first part. That's the question. Yes, I mean, our business units are growing faster than the airline overall. And so they will continue to contribute in a more meaningful way as we go forward. Cargo, for example, almost tripled in revenue from 2Q '19 to 2Q '22. And we've just actually started to put our E1s, our dedicated Embraer aircraft into service. We have 5 of them flying right now. And hopefully, we'll have more pretty soon. So we're excited about those opportunities. And as we've said before, there is a large road market that a lot of that -- a lot of those goods could be converted to air. For example, we just started with Shopee, for example. And we're starting to onboard other large customers as well. So we're excited about cargo. And we think that, that growth is going to continue to be above average for the next few years.

    是的。我可以從第一部分開始。這就是問題所在。是的,我的意思是,我們的業務部門的增長速度快於整個航空公司。因此,隨著我們的前進,他們將繼續以更有意義的方式做出貢獻。例如,從 19 年第二季度到 22 年第二季度,貨運收入幾乎翻了三倍。實際上,我們剛剛開始投入使用我們的 E1,我們專用的 Embraer 飛機。我們現在有 5 架在飛行。希望我們很快就會有更多。所以我們對這些機會感到興奮。正如我們之前所說,有一個很大的公路市場,其中很多 - 很多這些商品可以轉化為空氣。例如,我們剛剛從 Shopee 開始。我們也開始招募其他大客戶。所以我們對貨物感到興奮。我們認為,未來幾年的增長將繼續高於平均水平。

  • Our loyalty program hit a record in July in terms of monthly active users. A lot of engagement. Our billings Ex-Azul are up 60%, 70%. And so we're seeing a lot of engagement. And as we bring back the network, as we bring back our international network, those customers want to redeem those points. We saw in the pandemic, they were redeeming for coffee machines and AirPods, and now that we're deeming for travel, and that trend is going to continue. And I think probably the highlights so far this year has been our vacations business. We'll have 2,000 flights dedicated this summer season. It's almost going to be doubling this year versus 2019. And just a lot of new city pairs, a lot of new network opportunities. And as we've said before, this allows us to fly the aircraft on the weekends, the other times that we don't have those opportunities. So it's very accretive in other ways as well.

    就每月活躍用戶而言,我們的忠誠度計劃在 7 月份創下了記錄。很多參與。我們的賬單 Ex-Azul 上漲了 60%、70%。所以我們看到了很多參與。隨著我們恢復網絡,恢復我們的國際網絡,這些客戶想要兌換這些積分。我們在大流行中看到,他們正在兌換咖啡機和 AirPods,現在我們認為是旅行,而且這種趨勢將繼續下去。我認為今年迄今為止的亮點可能是我們的假期業務。今年夏季,我們將專門安排 2,000 趟航班。與 2019 年相比,今年幾乎翻了一番。而且只有很多新的城市對,很多新的網絡機會。正如我們之前所說,這使我們能夠在周末駕駛飛機,而其他時候我們沒有這些機會。所以它在其他方面也非常具有增值性。

  • So, yes, I think those businesses are going to grow at a faster rate than the airline overall and keep contributing.

    所以,是的,我認為這些業務將以比航空公司整體更快的速度增長並繼續做出貢獻。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. As for the M&A, we've never felt better about our stand-alone plan. Keep in mind, this airline is 50% larger in terms of revenue than it was in 2019. We've got this new generation fleet coming on. We now have access to the Congonhas Airport. We feel very good about where we are. Obviously, we'll always look at opportunities that exists in the markets. And we think some of the moves that we've seen in Latin America are very healthy. We think all airlines in Latin America need to focus on profitability, and that's a good thing going forward. And so really no news, and we're focusing on our stand-alone business at this time.

    是的。至於併購,我們對獨立計劃的感覺從未如此好過。請記住,這家航空公司的收入比 2019 年增加了 50%。我們擁有新一代機隊。我們現在可以進入孔戈尼亞斯機場了。我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。顯然,我們將始終關注市場中存在的機會。我們認為我們在拉丁美洲看到的一些舉措是非常健康的。我們認為拉丁美洲的所有航空公司都需要關注盈利能力,這是一件好事。所以真的沒有消息,我們現在專注於我們的獨立業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Lucas Barbosa, Santander.

    我們的下一個問題來自桑坦德的 Lucas Barbosa。

  • Lucas Teixeira Barbosa - Research Analyst

    Lucas Teixeira Barbosa - Research Analyst

  • Congratulations for the results. John, I hope you're right about Brazil winning the World Cup. So I have a question on balance sheet, maybe for Alex. Is the ATL line expansion just a reflection of the normal business seasonality and future price expansion or was there any campaign that accelerated forward bookings? Maybe another way to ask it is: do you think you can maintain the BRL 4 billion of ATL by year-end, given the increase in ticket prices and higher capacity going forward? And I'll do my second question later.

    祝賀結果。約翰,我希望你對巴西贏得世界杯的看法是正確的。所以我有一個關於資產負債表的問題,也許是亞歷克斯。 ATL 線路擴展是否只是正常業務季節性和未來價格擴展的反映,還是有任何活動加速了遠期預訂?也許換一種方式問它:鑑於票價上漲和未來容量增加,您認為您能否在年底前維持 40 億雷亞爾的 ATL?我稍後會回答我的第二個問題。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Great. Thanks, Lucas. Yes, I think if you look at the ATL in terms of days of sales, you're going to see that since fourth quarter, it's essentially flat. It may go up a little bit, down a little bit, but it's kind of hovering around the same number. So most of the increase in ATL is the increase in sales, really. And there's some seasonality. For example, normally in Q1, we don't sell a lot, but we fly a lot. And normally, in Q2, we sell a lot but don't fly a lot. So it's normal also for you to see an increase in ATL in the quarters where sales are strong, but we don't fly as much. So yes, we believe that if you look at the ATL in terms of days of sales, you can expect something pretty constant and something -- so that means that the balance in ATL should actually grow as we continue growing our revenues.

    偉大的。謝謝,盧卡斯。是的,我認為如果你從銷售天數來看 ATL,你會發現自第四季度以來,它基本上是持平的。它可能會上升一點點,下降一點點,但它有點徘徊在相同的數字附近。因此,ATL 的大部分增長實際上是銷售額的增長。並且有一些季節性。例如,通常在第一季度,我們不會賣很多,但我們會飛很多。通常,在第二季度,我們賣得很多,但飛得不多。因此,對於您來說,在銷售強勁的季度看到 ATL 增加也是正常的,但我們的飛行量沒有那麼多。所以是的,我們相信,如果你從銷售天數的角度來看待 ATL,你可以期待一些相當穩定的東西——這意味著隨著我們繼續增加收入,ATL 的餘額實際上應該會增長。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. I just want to highlight another thing, and Abhi will give the exact numbers, but what percentage of our international network was being sold in first quarter and second quarter versus third quarter and fourth quarter? And so as the restrictions to fly internationally have dropped in Europe and the United States, we've seen an uptick. And as you go into the third and fourth quarter, international revenues come on very strong. We haven't talked about that. That's obviously very positive for ATL because those bookings are a lot farther out.

    是的。我只想強調另一件事,Abhi 會給出確切的數字,但我們的國際網絡在第一季度和第二季度與第三季度和第四季度相比有多少百分比?因此,隨著歐洲和美國的國際飛行限制減少,我們看到了上升。當你進入第三和第四季度時,國際收入非常強勁。我們還沒有談到這一點。這顯然對 ATL 非常有利,因為這些預訂要遠得多。

  • Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Abhi Manoj Shah - Chief Revenue Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. Overall, we're going to be finishing -- the first half of the year, we were probably at 40% to 50% international recovery. We will finish the year closer to 80% to 90% international recovery and getting to 100% by first quarter of 2023. So that's going to be very helpful in driving those forward bookings as well.

    是的。總體而言,我們將完成——今年上半年,我們的國際復甦可能達到 40% 到 50%。我們將在今年完成接近 80% 到 90% 的國際復甦,並在 2023 年第一季度達到 100%。因此這也將非常有助於推動這些遠期預訂。

  • Lucas Barbosa: Super clear. And since I raised the point on forward bookings on the first question, can you give us some color on how you're seeing the pricing on forward bookings in the second quarter, the PRASK was 20% higher than 2Q '19? From what you're seeing on booking so far, can we see a comparison to pre-covid profit becoming even higher in the next quarters?

    Lucas Barbosa:超級清晰。既然我在第一個問題上提出了關於遠期預訂的觀點,您能否就您如何看待第二季度遠期預訂的定價給我們一些顏色,PRASK 比 19 年第二季度高出 20%?從您目前在預訂中看到的情況來看,我們能否看到與疫情前的利潤相比在接下來的幾個季度會變得更高?

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Yes. Our expectation is that 3Q will be even higher than the number that -- the 25% in 2Q.

    是的。我們的預期是,第三季度將甚至高於第二季度的 25%。

  • Lucas Teixeira Barbosa - Research Analyst

    Lucas Teixeira Barbosa - Research Analyst

  • Super clear. And John, I hope you're right about it, the World Cup.

    超級清晰。還有約翰,我希望你是對的,世界杯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Pablo Monsivais, Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Pablo Monsivais。

  • Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst

    Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst

  • Apologies for asking one more question. But I was just taking a look at your balance sheet and you are putting something called debtor risk for BRL 660 million. I just want to have more color on what is exactly this metric that you're putting.

    抱歉再問一個問題。但我只是看了一下你的資產負債表,你把一個叫做債務人風險的東西放在了 6.6 億雷亞爾。我只是想對你提出的這個指標有更多的色彩。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Hi, Pablo. Yes, it's what we mentioned a few calls ago -- a few answers ago, we can get support from our suppliers, for example, to get better terms. But sometimes there's a win-win that could happen for both us and the suppliers because we have -- we essentially pay a lower interest than our suppliers. And sometimes suppliers have a much harder access to capital than we do. So this is essentially supplier financing, where sometimes they can negotiate an extension with a supplier from 30 days to maybe as long as 120 days, but then that supplier can go and finance themselves with a bank. We're essentially using bank risk. So that also shows our access to credit directly with the banks. So it's essentially another source of capital, another source of cash that we can access if we need to.

    嗨,巴勃羅。是的,這就是我們在幾個電話之前提到的——幾個答案之前,我們可以從我們的供應商那裡獲得支持,例如,以獲得更好的條款。但有時對我們和供應商來說可能會發生雙贏,因為我們有——我們基本上支付的利息低於我們的供應商。有時供應商比我們更難獲得資金。所以這本質上是供應商融資,有時他們可以與供應商協商將期限從 30 天延長到 120 天,但隨後供應商可以去銀行為自己融資。我們本質上是在利用銀行風險。因此,這也表明我們可以直接從銀行獲得信貸。所以它本質上是另一種資金來源,另一種現金來源,如果我們需要,我們可以使用它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Guilherme Mendes, JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Guilherme Mendes。

  • Guilherme G. Mendes - Research Analyst

    Guilherme G. Mendes - Research Analyst

  • A quick one here, just in terms of fuel hedging if you could comment on your fuel hedging strategy going forward, that would be great.

    一個快速的,就燃料對沖而言,如果你能評論你未來的燃料對沖策略,那就太好了。

  • Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    Alexandre Wagner Malfitani - CFO, IR Officer & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • We have a policy that we can hedge up to 40% of our next 12 months' exposure. Right now, we're at about high teens, 15%, a little bit over 15%. We've been using forward contracts up to this point. And that's the reason why you're seeing the big positive result that we had. And this is actual cash that we can access if we need to. We can -- we look a lot at what the industry is doing. We're not trying to convince you that we're going to guess better than the market whether oil prices are going to go up or down. We essentially want to protect the tickets that we have already sold, which have -- obviously, their fares are already locked, and to any kind of volatility in fuel prices that we may have between selling that ticket and flying that ticket.

    我們有一項政策,可以對沖未來 12 個月風險敞口的 40%。現在,我們大約處於青少年時期,15%,略高於 15%。到目前為止,我們一直在使用遠期合約。這就是為什麼你看到我們取得了巨大的積極成果的原因。如果需要,這是我們可以訪問的實際現金。我們可以——我們非常關注這個行業在做什麼。我們並不是要讓你相信我們會比市場更好地猜測油價是上漲還是下跌。我們本質上想保護我們已經售出的機票,顯然,他們的票價已經被鎖定,以及我們在出售機票和飛行機票之間可能存在的任何燃料價格波動。

  • But we also look a lot at what the industry is doing. And the industry is fairly underhedged right now. I mean, overall, we look at hedging as insurance. We expect to lose money in insurance. We expect to lose money in hedging, not a lot on either one, but it's not a profit line for any airline. If you can make money guessing whether fuel prices are going to go up or down, you shouldn't be running an airline.

    但我們也非常關注這個行業在做什麼。而且該行業目前的對沖不足。我的意思是,總的來說,我們將對沖視為一種保險。我們預計會在保險上賠錢。我們預計在對沖中會虧損,任何一方都不會虧損,但這不是任何航空公司的盈利線。如果您可以通過猜測燃油價格是上漲還是下跌來賺錢,那麼您就不應該經營一家航空公司。

  • So I think you can expect a similar approach to fuel hedges, but we will also be monitoring what the industry is doing overall.

    因此,我認為您可以期待類似的燃料對沖方法,但我們還將監控整個行業的整體情況。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • We're just frustrated we didn't have hedge accounting in the quarter, to be honest with you.

    老實說,我們只是對本季度沒有對沖會計感到沮喪。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would like to invite Mr. John to proceed with his closing statements. Please go ahead, sir.

    女士們,先生們,今天的問答環節到此結束。我想請約翰先生繼續他的閉幕詞。請繼續,先生。

  • John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

    John Peter Rodgerson - CEO & Member of Board of Executive Officers

  • Thank you for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, obviously, our IR team and Alex, Abhi, myself will be available, and we appreciate your time today and look forward to meeting you at the conferences. Take care.

    感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題,很明顯,我們的 IR 團隊和 Alex, Abhi,本人將隨時待命,我們感謝您今天的時間,並期待在會議上與您會面。小心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the Azul's audio conference call for today. Thank you very much for your participation. Have a good day.

    謝謝你。 Azul 今天的音頻電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。祝你有美好的一天。