美國運通 (AXP) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the American Express Q1 2020 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加美國運通 2020 年第一季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Vivian Zhou.

現在我想把會議交給我們的東道主投資者關係部主管周薇薇女士。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Alan, and thank you all for joining today's call.

謝謝艾倫，也感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance.

提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務業績的前瞻性陳述。

These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些基於管理層當前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

可能導致實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示幻燈片和我們向 SEC 提交的報告中。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的討論還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed.

可比較的公認會計準則財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。

All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We will begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's key priorities for 2020 in light of the COVID-19 pandemic; and then Jeff Campbell, Chief Financial Officer, will provide review of our first quarter financial performance.

今天，我們將由董事長兼首席執行官 Steve Squeri 開始，他將首先介紹公司鑑於 COVID-19 大流行而在 2020 年的主要優先事項；然後首席財務官 Jeff Campbell 將回顧我們第一季度的財務業績。

After that, we will move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Jeff.

之後，我們將與史蒂夫和傑夫進行有關結果的問答環節。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

那麼，讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Vivian.

謝謝，維維安。

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us on the call today.

大家好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

First of all, I hope you and your families are healthy and staying safe as we go through this COVID-19 crisis.

首先，我希望您和您的家人在我們度過這場 COVID-19 危機時保持健康並保持安全。

As we said on our investor call on March 17, we're in unprecedented times.

正如我們在 3 月 17 日的投資者電話會議上所說，我們正處於前所未有的時代。

Our results in January and February continued the strong trends we've seen over the past 10 quarters, but we're now operating in a very different world.

我們一月和二月的業績延續了過去 10 個季度的強勁趨勢，但我們現在的運營環境截然不同。

The deterioration in the economy due to COVID-19 impacts that began during the first quarter and accelerated in April has dramatically impacted our volumes.

第一季度開始並在 4 月份加速的 COVID-19 影響導致經濟惡化，極大地影響了我們的銷量。

Looking ahead, it's impossible to know when the economy will improve.

展望未來，不可能知道經濟何時會改善。

In the meantime, we're focused on supporting our colleagues and customers while remaining financially strong so that we could be in a position to grow when the crisis ends.

與此同時，我們專注於支持我們的同事和客戶，同時保持財務實力，以便在危機結束時我們能夠實現增長。

Jeff will take you through some detail on how this environment is impacting various components of our financial results.

傑夫將向您詳細介紹這種環境如何影響我們財務業績的各個組成部分。

My comments will focus on what we're doing to manage the company through the near term so that we can be in a position to take advantage of the growth opportunities that will be available when the economy improves.

我的評論將集中於我們在短期內管理公司所做的事情，以便我們能夠利用經濟改善時出現的增長機會。

Last year, as many economists were predicting an economic slowdown at some point, we put together a plan for managing through a range of potential economic scenarios, and we modeled what our response might look like in those scenarios.

去年，正如許多經濟學家預測經濟在某個時候會放緩一樣，我們制定了一項計劃來管理一系列潛在的經濟情景，並模擬了在這些情景下我們的應對措施。

Of course, the economic situation we're facing right now is nothing like those we modeled.

當然，我們現在面臨的經濟形勢與我們模擬的情況完全不同。

However, we developed a framework that we're using to guide us in managing the company through the short term as we plan for the future.

然而，我們開發了一個框架，用於指導我們在短期內管理公司並規劃未來。

Our framework for managing through this cycle is built on 4 principles you will see on Slide 2: Supporting our colleagues and winning as a team, protecting our customers and our brand, structuring the company for growth in the future and remaining financially strong.

我們在這個週期中的管理框架建立在您將在幻燈片 2 中看到的 4 項原則的基礎上：支持我們的同事並作為團隊獲勝、保護我們的客戶和我們的品牌、構建公司以實現未來的增長並保持財務實力。

I'll spend a few minutes talking about each of these principles, which represent our priorities for 2020.

我將花幾分鐘討論這些原則，它們代表了我們 2020 年的優先事項。

Turning to Slide 3. From day 1 of this crisis, our priority has been to take care of our people, the 64,000 American Express colleagues around the world.

轉向幻燈片 3。從這場危機的第一天起，我們的首要任務就是照顧我們的員工，即美國運通在全球的 64,000 名同事。

We wanted to ensure our colleagues felt secure in their jobs, which is why we committed to no COVID-19-related layoffs for the remainder of 2020.

我們希望確保我們的同事在工作中感到安全，這就是為什麼我們承諾在 2020 年剩餘時間內不會進行與 COVID-19 相關的裁員。

In addition, we're continuing to pay the salaries of colleagues who are affected by the virus without having to use their paid leave.

此外，我們將繼續向受病毒影響的同事支付工資，而無需使用他們的帶薪休假。

We also committed to paying all out-of-pocket COVID-related medical expenses for colleagues in our U.S. medical plans.

我們還承諾為美國醫療計劃中的同事支付所有與新冠肺炎相關的自付費用醫療費用。

As the virus spread rapidly around the world, we wanted to keep our colleagues safe and secure.

隨著病毒在世界各地迅速傳播，我們希望確保同事的安全。

So we moved quickly to a full-time work-from-home arrangement in all our locations, including thousands of our frontline service colleagues.

因此，我們迅速在所有地點實行全職在家工作安排，其中包括數千名一線服務同事。

A core value of our company from our earliest days has been supporting the communities from where we do business and where our colleagues live and work.

從成立之初起，我們公司的核心價值觀就是支持我們開展業務以及同事生活和工作所在的社區。

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, we committed over $6 million in grants of the American Express Foundation to a number of charitable organizations around the world that are supporting frontline workers in this crisis.

當 COVID-19 大流行爆發時，我們承諾將美國運通基金會向世界各地的許多慈善組織提供超過 600 萬美元的贈款，以支持這場危機中的一線工作人員。

We also pledged to match more than $1 million in Card member donations to Feeding America when U.S. Card members use their Membership Rewards points to donate to the organization through justgiving.com.

我們還承諾，當美國持卡會員使用其會員獎勵積分通過 justgiving.com 向 Feeding America 捐款時，我們將向該組織提供超過 100 萬美元的持卡會員捐款。

In addition, we're working with our partners to support our communities.

此外，我們還與合作夥伴合作支持我們的社區。

For example, we're partnering with Hilton to donate up to 1 million hotel room nights to frontline medical professionals across the U.S. And we're backing Marriott's Rooms for Responders initiative to provide hotel stays for health care professionals in some of the hardest-hit regions.

例如，我們與希爾頓合作，向美國各地的一線醫療專業人員捐贈多達 100 萬個酒店間夜。我們還支持萬豪酒店的“Rooms for Responders”計劃，為一些受災最嚴重的地區的醫療保健專業人員提供酒店住宿地區。

The next principle is protecting our customers and our brand.

下一個原則是保護我們的客戶和我們的品牌。

Our global customer base is one of our most important assets.

我們的全球客戶群是我們最重要的資產之一。

And like everyone, they're going through a difficult time right now.

和每個人一樣，他們現在正在經歷一段困難時期。

We're offering a range of financial assistance options to help our customers weather the storm, adding new product benefits to be relevant in today's environment and continuing to provide the world-class customer service our customers expect and rely on.

我們提供一系列財務援助選項來幫助我們的客戶渡過難關，增加與當今環境相關的新產品優勢，並繼續提供客戶期望和依賴的世界一流的客戶服務。

Our consumer and small business Card members are taking advantage of the various short-term financial assistance options we offer to help them navigate through this period, including temporary payment deferrals, interest and late-fee waivers and protections from collection calls and negative credit bureau reporting.

我們的消費者和小型企業卡會員正在利用我們提供的各種短期財務援助選項來幫助他們度過這一時期，包括臨時付款延期、利息和滯納金豁免以及免受催收電話和負面信用局報告的保護。

We also offer a range of longer-term assistance programs for certain customers who require more time.

我們還為某些需要更多時間的客戶提供一系列長期援助計劃。

We're expanding eligibility for these programs and enhancing them to provide for additional payment flexibility based on a customer's circumstances.

我們正在擴大這些計劃的資格並增強它們，以便根據客戶的情況提供額外的付款靈活性。

To enable our U.S. small business customers to obtain the financial assistance provided under the SBA's Paycheck Protection Program, we've been authorized as an SBA PPP lender and began to accept applications from our customers earlier this week, which we'll submit to the SBA as soon as that window opens.

為了使我們的美國小企業客戶能夠獲得 SBA 薪資保護計劃下提供的財務援助，我們已被授權為 SBA PPP 貸款人，並於本週早些時候開始接受客戶的申請，我們將把申請提交給 SBA該窗口一打開。

In addition to our financial assistance initiatives, we've enhanced our Membership Rewards programs, and we're adding new offers, benefits and rewards to our premium products that are particularly relevant for the times we're in now.

除了我們的財務援助計劃之外，我們還增強了我們的會員獎勵計劃，並且我們正在為我們的優質產品添加新的優惠、福利和獎勵，這些產品與我們現在所處的時代特別相關。

For example, since people are not currently traveling, eating out or shopping in store, we've adjusted our MR program to include discounts at Amazon when you pay with points and the ability to earn double points with orders from Grubhub and Seamless through the end of the year.

例如，由於人們目前沒有旅行、外出就餐或在商店購物，我們調整了 MR 計劃，以包括使用積分付款時在亞馬遜的折扣，以及通過 Grubhub 和 Seamless 下訂單賺取雙倍積分的能力。今年的。

We're also adding a range of limited-time offers, credits and rewards on stay-at-home services, such as wireless, streaming, grocery and food delivery, for our consumer and certain co-brand card customers, as well as business essentials like wireless office equipment and shipping for our small business customers.

我們還為我們的消費者和某些聯名卡客戶以及企業增加了一系列關於居家服務的限時優惠、積分和獎勵，例如無線、流媒體、雜貨和食品配送。為我們的小型企業客戶提供無線辦公設備和運輸等必需品。

For our co-brand customers, we're also working with our partners to extend card member benefits, such as airline companion certificates and hotel free night awards, so our mutual customers will have more time to enjoy these benefits.

對於我們的聯名客戶，我們還與合作夥伴合作，提供持卡會員福利，例如航空公司同伴證書和酒店免費住宿獎勵，以便我們的共同客戶有更多時間享受這些福利。

And for our travel customers, we're waiving fees for any flight changes or new bookings made through American Express Travel now through May 31.

對於我們的旅行客戶，從即日起至 5 月 31 日，我們將免除通過 American Express Travel 進行的任何航班變更或新預訂的費用。

In addition to our card members, we're supporting small businesses, as we have for many years, through Shop Small initiatives like Small Business Saturday and many others around the world.

除了我們的持卡會員之外，我們還像多年來一樣通過小型企業星期六等小型企業計劃以及世界各地的許多其他計劃來支持小型企業。

During the COVID-19 crisis, we're continuing to promote the positive impact consumers can have on their local communities and small businesses through our Stay Home and Shop Small campaign.

在新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 危機期間，我們將繼續通過“待在家裡、小店購物”活動，宣傳消費者對當地社區和小型企業的積極影響。

Earlier this week, we launched Stand for Small in the U.S., a coalition of more than 40 companies across various industries that have come together to back small businesses by providing a wide range of offers, complementary services, access to corporate assistance programs and other resources designed to help support them as they manage through the crisis.

本週早些時候，我們在美國推出了 Stand for Small，這是一個由 40 多家來自不同行業的公司組成的聯盟，這些公司聚集在一起，通過提供廣泛的優惠、補充服務、企業援助計劃和其他資源來支持小企業旨在幫助支持他們度過危機。

We look forward to many more companies joining this initiative over the coming weeks.

我們期待在未來幾週內有更多的公司加入這一計劃。

For our merchant partners, we're also temporarily extending the amount of time businesses must respond to disputes and have increased contactless transaction thresholds to reduce physical contact at the point of sale in 28 countries.

對於我們的商家合作夥伴，我們還暫時延長了企業必須響應爭議的時間，並提高了非接觸式交易門檻，以減少 28 個國家/地區銷售點的實際接觸。

Finally, our customer care professionals made a quick transition from our brick-and-mortar operation to a home-based servicing one, and we did so with minimal disruption.

最後，我們的客戶服務專業人員迅速從實體運營轉變為家庭服務，而且我們做到了這一點，並且干擾最小。

In fact, our servicing levels quickly came back to BAU levels, and our customer satisfaction results improved during the crisis and are at significantly higher levels now than in January.

事實上，我們的服務水平很快就恢復到了 BAU 水平，我們的客戶滿意度在危機期間得到了改善，並且現在的水平明顯高於 1 月份。

Our next principle is structuring the company for future growth.

我們的下一個原則是構建公司以實現未來的增長。

While we believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will generate certain changes in our business in the near term and likely over the long term, it will also generate opportunities.

雖然我們相信 COVID-19 大流行將在短期內並可能在長期內給我們的業務帶來一定的變化，但它也將創造機會。

And we intend to be in a position to take advantage of the opportunities as they present themselves.

我們打算能夠充分利用這些機會。

We're starting with a strong foundation.

我們從堅實的基礎開始。

The assets we have, our differentiated business model, particularly our brands, our customers and our merchant network, give us a great base to build upon.

我們擁有的資產、我們差異化的商業模式，特別是我們的品牌、我們的客戶和我們的商業網絡，為我們奠定了良好的基礎。

In addition, the strategic imperatives we've been focused on over the past few years remain just as relevant today.

此外，我們過去幾年一直關注的戰略要務在今天仍然具有現實意義。

And while we'll make some adjustments considering the current environment, we'll continue to pursue our overall strategies in the following areas: expanding our leadership in the premium consumer space; building on our strong position in commercial payments; strengthening our global, integrated network to provide unique value; and making American Express an essential part of our customers' digital lives.

雖然我們會根據當前環境做出一些調整，但我們將繼續在以下領域推行我們的總體戰略：擴大我們在高端消費領域的領導地位；鞏固我們在商業支付領域的強大地位；加強我們的全球綜合網絡以提供獨特的價值；使美國運通成為客戶數字生活的重要組成部分。

As the crisis unfolded, we knew that we had to reprioritize our investments in each of these areas to focus on those initiatives that are critical to retaining our premium customer base and strengthening our merchant network while, at the same time, continuing to invest in those areas that are key to our long-term growth strategy.

隨著危機的展開，我們知道我們必須重新調整在每個領域的投資優先順序，以重點關注那些對於保留我們的優質客戶群和加強我們的商業網絡至關重要的舉措，同時繼續投資於這些領域對我們的長期增長戰略至關重要的領域。

This led us to a thorough and thoughtful process to identify activities that we should stop, slow, accelerate and continue.

這使我們採取了徹底、深思熟慮的流程來確定我們應該停止、放慢、加速和繼續的活動。

What we're stopping for the time being includes items that are less critical in today's environment, including traditional advertising, marketing, sponsorships and customer acquisition activities.

我們暫時停止的項目包括在當今環境下不太重要的項目，包括傳統的廣告、營銷、贊助和客戶獲取活動。

We're slowing down the development and launch of some of the new products we had in the pipeline for this year.

我們正在放慢今年正在開發的一些新產品的開發和發布速度。

We're accelerating investments in mobile, servicing and credit and collections capabilities that are not only important today but are also important for our continued growth over the longer term.

我們正在加快對移動、服務、信貸和收款能力的投資，這不僅在今天很重要，而且對我們的長期持續增長也很重要。

And we're continuing our activities in a number of areas, including acquiring new merchants globally, our ongoing efforts to launch our new network in China, our network replatforming initiative, our premium product refresh strategy in both consumer and commercial and continuing to integrate and develop new digital capabilities as well as making longer-term enhancements in our servicing platform and other key areas that are important for our future success.

我們將繼續在多個領域開展活動，包括在全球收購新商戶、持續努力在中國推出新網絡、網絡平台重組計劃、消費者和商業領域的優質產品更新戰略以及繼續整合和開發新的數字能力，並對我們的服務平台和其他對我們未來成功至關重要的關鍵領域進行長期增強。

Finally, we entered this crisis with particularly strong capital and liquidity positions that will enable us to remain financially strong.

最後，我們以特別強勁的資本和流動性狀況進入了這場危機，這將使我們能夠保持財務實力。

While some of our expense categories, such as rewards cost and the cost of card member services, will decline automatically as spending declines and customer behaviors change, we're taking aggressive actions to reduce discretionary expenses across the enterprise by nearly $3 billion from our original plan in the areas I mentioned before, and we are redirecting some of those funds into new product benefits and longer-term investments I described a few moments ago.

雖然我們的一些費用類別（例如獎勵成本和卡會員服務成本）將隨著支出下降和客戶行為變化而自動下降，但我們正在採取積極行動，將整個企業的可自由支配費用從原來的基礎上減少近 30 億美元在我之前提到的領域進行計劃，我們正在將其中一些資金重新用於我剛才描述的新產品優勢和長期投資。

Looking ahead, in the near term, our earnings will be driven by the answers to 2 questions that no one yet can answer.

展望未來，在短期內，我們的盈利將取決於兩個尚無人能回答的問題的答案。

First, when and how strongly the spending rebound as the global economy recovers.

首先，隨著全球經濟復甦，支出反彈的時間和力度如何。

Second, how long do the challenges of high unemployment levels and small business shutdowns last, perhaps softened by the record levels of government support?

其次，高失業率和小企業倒閉的挑戰會持續多久（或許會因政府創紀錄水平的支持而有所緩解）？

And what does that mean for our credit losses?

這對我們的信用損失意味著什麼？

Until we all get to the answers to these questions, we're reducing our spending in every area that doesn't make sense in the current environment, consistent with our intention to not have any COVID-related layoffs in 2020 and consistent with our intention of protecting our customers and the brand.

在我們都找到這些問題的答案之前，我們將減少在當前環境下沒有意義的各個領域的支出，這符合我們在 2020 年不進行任何與新冠病毒相關的裁員的意圖，也符合我們的意圖保護我們的客戶和品牌。

So those are our principles we've established for managing through this period in a way that will position us to return to growth when the economy rebounds.

因此，這些是我們為管理這一時期而製定的原則，使我們能夠在經濟反彈時恢復增長。

Without a doubt, these are times that are unlike any that I've countered in my 35 years at American Express.

毫無疑問，現在的情況與我在美國運通 35 年來遇到的任何情況都不同。

But while the magnitude and uncertainty of today's challenges are more intense, the lessons we've learned through other crises will serve us well as we work through this one.

然而，儘管當今挑戰的規模和不確定性更加嚴峻，但我們從其他危機中汲取的經驗教訓將對我們在應對這一危機時大有裨益。

As always, we'll remain focused on what we can control in the short term while keeping an eye on the long term.

一如既往，我們將繼續關注短期內可以控制的事情，同時關注長期。

And like before, we intend to come back stronger.

和以前一樣，我們打算以更強的姿態回歸。

Our teams are working day and night all over the world to help our card members and our merchants, just as we have done throughout our history.

正如我們歷史上所做的那樣，我們的團隊在世界各地夜以繼日地工作，為我們的持卡會員和商戶提供幫助。

And when this is over, we intend to be in a position of strength ready to catalyze on the opportunities ahead because we've managed the short-term challenges while remaining focused on growth over the longer term.

當這一切結束後，我們打算處於有利地位，準備好迎接未來的機遇，因為我們已經應對了短期挑戰，同時仍然專注於長期增長。

Thank you for your time, and now I'll turn it over to Jeff.

感謝您抽出時間，現在我將把它交給傑夫。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。

Today, I'll take you through our results with more real-time granularity on recent trends than I normally do to help you understand how our business is performing in this rapidly evolving environment.

今天，我將帶您了解我們的結果，比平時更實時地了解最新趨勢，以幫助您了解我們的業務在這個快速發展的環境中的表現。

Starting with our summary financials, I'd encourage you to look at slides 4 and 5 together.

從我們的財務摘要開始，我鼓勵您一起查看幻燈片 4 和 5。

As you can see on Slide 5, while January and February were strong months, March was a very different month.

正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的，雖然 1 月和 2 月是強勁的月份，但 3 月卻是一個非常不同的月份。

And so the full quarter results are not so helpful for understanding our performance in the current environment.

因此，整個季度的業績對於了解我們在當前環境下的表現並沒有多大幫助。

As you recall, when we held our investor update on March 17, we said we expected first quarter earnings per share, excluding credit reserves, would be between $1.90 and $2.10, and that's where we've landed.

您還記得，當我們 3 月 17 日舉行投資者更新時，我們表示預計第一季度每股收益（不包括信貸準備金）將在 1.90 美元至 2.10 美元之間，這就是我們的目標。

We also said we expected FX-adjusted revenue growth would be in the 2% to 4% range, but we came in a bit below that due to spending trends at the end of March deteriorating even faster than we had expected as well as some of our ancillary revenue lines coming in a bit lower than expected.

我們還表示，我們預計經匯率調整後的收入增長將在 2% 至 4% 的範圍內，但由於 3 月底的支出趨勢惡化得比我們預期還要快，以及一些我們的輔助收入線略低於預期。

Turning now to the details of our performance, I'll start with billed business.

現在談談我們的業績細節，我將從計費業務開始。

Clearly, it is remarkable how much the world has changed in just the last month and a half.

顯然，在過去的一個半月裡，世界發生了巨大的變化，這是令人矚目的。

What's most important as you think about the near-term future is understanding what's happening today.

當你考慮近期的未來時，最重要的是了解今天正在發生的事情。

And so we've included a different view of our billed business than our typical quarterly disclosures, which you can still find in the Appendix on slides 25 to 27.

因此，我們對計費業務的看法與典型的季度披露不同，您仍然可以在幻燈片 25 至 27 的附錄中找到這些信息。

Instead, on slides 6 and 7, we have shown you our weekly proprietary billed business growth trends through the latest date for which our data is complete, which is April 19.

相反，在幻燈片 6 和 7 中，我們向您展示了截至我們數據完整的最新日期（即 4 月 19 日）的每周自營計費業務增長趨勢。

Looking at all this data, there are 4 key observations I'd make.

看了所有這些數據，我得出了 4 個關鍵觀察結果。

First, the volume declines accelerated dramatically in March, whereas January and February results were still in line with our performance over the last few years.

首先，3月份成交量急劇下降，而1月份和2月份的業績仍與我們過去幾年的表現相符。

Second, T&E, which was roughly 30% of our proprietary volumes in 2019, is down almost 95%.

其次，T&E 業務在 2019 年約占我們自營業務量的 30%，但下降了近 95%。

Third, non-T&E spending has declined more modestly.

第三，非差旅及娛樂支出下降幅度較小。

As you'd expect, some areas, such as grocery spending and some online commerce, have held up quite well and even accelerated, whereas other categories, such as other categories of more traditional retail, have been much weaker.

正如您所期望的那樣，某些領域（例如食品雜貨支出和一些在線商務）表現良好甚至加速，而其他類別（例如其他更傳統的零售類別）則要弱得多。

And fourth, you will see that our proprietary billings declines seem to have stabilized somewhat in April, with overall proprietary volume growth down around 45%.

第四，您會發現 4 月份我們的自營業務收入下降似乎有所穩定，自營業務整體銷量增長下降了 45% 左右。

Turning next to loan performance on Slide 8. Total loans declined by 3% year-over-year in the first quarter driven primarily by lower spending.

接下來轉向幻燈片 8 中的貸款表現。第一季度總貸款同比下降 3%，主要是由於支出減少。

In today's environment, where there are so many questions around credit, we felt it would be helpful to remind you about the composition of our loan book.

在當今的環境下，圍繞信貸存在如此多的問題，我們認為提醒您我們貸款簿的構成會有所幫助。

At the end of the first quarter, 70% of our outstanding loan balances were with U.S. consumers, 10% were with international consumers and the remaining 20% were with small businesses, almost all of which are in the U.S.

截至第一季度末，我們的未償貸款餘額中有 70% 屬於美國消費者，10% 屬於國際消費者，其餘 20% 屬於小企業，幾乎所有企業都在美國。

Moving on to Slide 9. We wanted to spend a minute focusing on our charge receivables.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們想花一點時間關注我們的應收賬款。

Because in an environment where spending volumes move dramatically, these balances move dramatically as well.

因為在支出量急劇變化的環境中，這些餘額也會急劇變化。

As you can see in the chart on the left, with only 1 month of spend declines, our charge receivables are down 21% versus the prior year and $13 billion below the prior quarter.

正如您在左圖中看到的，僅 1 個月的支出下降，我們的應收費用就比上一年下降了 21%，比上一季度減少了 130 億美元。

This dynamic is important as you think about liquidity and capital in this environment, which I will get to later in my remarks.

當你考慮這種環境下的流動性和資本時，這種動態很重要，我將在稍後的發言中談到這一點。

Of course, our charge receivables also have a different risk profile than our lending book.

當然，我們的應收賬款也具有與貸款賬簿不同的風險狀況。

And even within our charge receivables book, there are different types of credit exposure.

即使在我們的應收賬款賬簿中，也存在不同類型的信用風險。

And so we've included a breakout of where these charge receivables come from on the right-hand side of the slide.

因此，我們在幻燈片右側詳細列出了這些應收賬款的來源。

Around 35% of our charge receivables are from consumer charge card members and another 35% are from small business charge card members.

我們約 35% 的應收賬款來自消費者賒賬卡會員，另外 35% 來自小型企業賒賬卡會員。

The remaining 30% is from corporate cards, which have relatively lower risk exposure.

剩下的30%來自公司卡，風險相對較低。

Slide 10 then shows our traditional credit metrics for our lending and charge portfolios.

然後幻燈片 10 顯示了我們的貸款和收費組合的傳統信用指標。

The trends in both write-offs and delinquencies in the first quarter were solid and remained best in class, in part due to all of our risk management efforts over the past few years to prepare for an eventual downturn.

第一季度的沖銷和拖欠趨勢都很穩健，並且仍然是同類中最好的，部分原因是我們在過去幾年中為最終的低迷做好了風險管理工作。

You do see a modest increase in write-off and delinquency rates year-over-year and sequentially primarily due to lower loan and receivable balances as opposed to any significant change in credit performance.

您確實看到沖銷率和拖欠率同比和連續略有上升，這主要是由於貸款和應收賬款餘額減少，而不是信用表現的任何重大變化。

Further, were you to look at our TDR disclosures in our Q1 10-Q, those balances are also relatively in line with the prior quarter.

此外，如果您查看我們在 10-Q1 季度中披露的 TDR，這些餘額也與上一季度相對一致。

Now obviously, our traditional credit metrics all look fine because not enough time has passed for things to show up in these traditional metrics.

現在顯然，我們的傳統信用指標看起來都很好，因為沒有足夠的時間來讓事情顯示在這些傳統指標中。

What we are all trying to manage going forward is the collision of record levels of unemployment combined with record levels of government support.

未來我們所有人都在努力應對創紀錄的失業率與創紀錄的政府支持的衝突。

So turning to Slide 11, you will see the total balances that are enrolled in our Customer Pandemic Relief program, which we established to support our customers that have encountered hardship due to COVID-19.

因此，轉到幻燈片 11，您將看到參加我們的客戶流行病救濟計劃的總餘額，該計劃是我們為支持因 COVID-19 而遇到困難的客戶而設立的。

Since we created this program in March, we've had nearly 845,000 accounts enroll in the program globally through mid-April, just a few days ago.

自從我們在 3 月份創建該計劃以來，截至 4 月中旬（就在幾天前），全球已有近 845,000 個帳戶註冊了該計劃。

I'd also note that over 88% of the U.S. consumer and small business loan and receivable balances enrolled in this program are from prime and super-prime card members.

我還想指出，參與該計劃的美國消費者和小企業貸款及應收賬款餘額中，超過 88% 來自優質卡和超級優質卡會員。

And many of those card members have made some payments since enrollment.

許多持卡會員自註冊以來已經支付了一些費用。

In addition, we've seen the pace of new enrollments slow a bit from its peak a few weeks ago.

此外，我們還發現新入學人數的速度較幾週前的峰值有所放緩。

We are working hard alongside these customers to get to the best outcome for both our customers and our shareholders by providing payment deferrals, waiving interest and certain fees as well as protecting them from adverse bureau reporting and collections actions.

我們正在與這些客戶一起努力，通過提供延期付款、免除利息和某些費用以及保護他們免受不利的局報告和收款行動的影響，為我們的客戶和股東取得最佳結果。

We are also working, as people roll off these short-term programs, to develop new, longer-term solutions as well as leveraging our preexisting hardship programs to help them retain their membership and to get to a good financial outcome.

隨著人們退出這些短期計劃，我們也在努力開發新的長期解決方案，並利用我們先前存在的困難計劃來幫助他們保留會員資格並獲得良好的財務成果。

So one of the many uncertainties around the economic future is the outcome of those efforts, which will be one of the factors that influences our credit performance through this crisis.

因此，經濟未來的眾多不確定性之一就是這些努力的結果，這將是在這場危機中影響我們信貸表現的因素之一。

So let's move on to provision on Slide 12.

那麼讓我們繼續討論幻燈片 12 上的配置。

The first point I would make is that just as our credit metrics were relatively unchanged in the first quarter, our write-off dollars were also in line with our original expectations and do not yet reflect the incremental stress from the current crisis.

我要說的第一點是，正如我們的信貸指標在第一季度相對不變一樣，我們的沖銷金額也符合我們最初的預期，尚未反映當前危機帶來的增量壓力。

The growth in provision expense is all about the $1.7 billion credit reserve build.

撥備支出的增長主要源於 17 億美元的信貸準備金建設。

And the credit reserve build is all about the macroeconomic outlook as we close the books in early April, which was suddenly and significantly much more pessimistic than when we started the year.

當我們在四月初結賬時，信貸儲備的建設完全與宏觀經濟前景有關，這突然比我們年初時更加悲觀。

This outlook does attempt to incorporate all the uncertainties around the impacts of COVID-19 as well as any potential offsets from the unprecedented level of government stimulus.

這一展望確實試圖納入有關 COVID-19 影響的所有不確定性，以及史無前例的政府刺激措施帶來的任何潛在抵消影響。

So turning then to Slide 13, you see that our reserves at the end of the first quarter are almost double the reserve levels we had on our balance sheet at the end of last year.

那麼轉向幻燈片 13，您會看到我們第一季度末的準備金幾乎是去年年底資產負債表上的準備金水平的兩倍。

The increase is from a combination of the $1.2 billion of reserves we built when we implemented the Current Expected Credit Loss accounting methodology, CECL, on January 1 as well as the $1.7 billion of credit reserves we added at the end of the first quarter as a result of the worsening macroeconomic outlook due to COVID-19.

這一增長來自於我們在 1 月 1 日實施當前預期信用損失會計方法 CECL 時建立的 12 億美元準備金，以及我們在第一季度末增加的 17 億美元信用準備金。 COVID-19 導致宏觀經濟前景惡化的結果。

Today, our lending and charge credit reserves on the balance sheet represent 7% of our loan balances and 1% of our charge receivable balances, respectively.

如今，我們資產負債表上的貸款和收費信貸準備金分別佔貸款餘額的 7% 和應收收費餘額的 1%。

So the key underpinning of these reserves are the macroeconomic assumptions that informed the $1.7 billion credit reserve build we took in the first quarter, which we show you on Slide 14.

因此，這些儲備的關鍵基礎是宏觀經濟假設，這些假設為我們在第一季度建立的 17 億美元信貸儲備提供了依據，我們在幻燈片 14 中向您展示了這一點。

As you know, we do not have an in-house economist, and so we use an external provider and look at a range of macroeconomic forecasts that we weight together in our credit reserve models.

如您所知，我們沒有內部經濟學家，因此我們使用外部提供商並研究一系列宏觀經濟預測，並在信貸儲備模型中對其進行加權。

When we closed the books on the first quarter, those scenarios assumed that GDP would be down 18% to 25% and the unemployment rate would rise to 9% to 13% in the second quarter with a steady, modest recovery after that.

當我們第一季度結賬時，這些情景假設第二季度 GDP 將下降 18% 至 25%，失業率將上升至 9% 至 13%，隨後穩步溫和復蘇。

It's important to note that the latest macroeconomic outlook today reflects an even more significant deterioration in U.S. GDP and unemployment than when we closed the books on the first quarter.

值得注意的是，今天最新的宏觀經濟前景反映出美國 GDP 和失業率比第一季度結賬時更為嚴重的惡化。

If those forecasts were to hold or even worsen by the time we close the books on the second quarter, we would expect to have another large reserve build.

如果到第二季度結賬時這些預測保持不變甚至惡化，我們預計將再次大規模增加儲備。

So this gives you a clearer view of the assumptions behind our Q1 reserve build.

因此，這可以讓您更清楚地了解我們第一季度儲備金建設背後的假設。

But only time will tell what the ultimate level of write-offs will be given the completely unprecedented nature of the global environment.

但考慮到全球環境的性質是前所未有的，只有時間才能告訴我們最終的沖銷水平。

Turning next to revenue on Slide 15.

接下來轉向幻燈片 15 上的收入。

Net card fees remained our fastest-growing revenue line with 18% growth in the first quarter.

網卡費用仍然是我們增長最快的收入線，第一季度增長了 18%。

We expect this revenue line to decelerate less in the short term relative to other revenue lines based on our historical experience with strong card fee performance in a downturn as well as the fact that we have roughly $2 billion of deferred card fee revenue already sitting on the balance sheet today.

根據我們在低迷時期卡費表現強勁的歷史經驗以及我們已經擁有大約 20 億美元的遞延卡費收入這一事實，我們預計該收入線相對於其他收入線在短期內減速幅度較小。今天的資產負債表。

However, it's also important to note that the majority of the card fee growth we've seen over the past few years has been driven by growth in our fee-based portfolios, with around 70% of our new card acquisitions in 2019 on fee-based products.

然而，還需要注意的是，過去幾年我們看到的大部分卡費增長都是由我們的收費投資組合的增長推動的，2019 年我們的新卡收購中約有 70% 是收費的。為基礎的產品。

As the pace of new account growth slows in this environment, we would expect to see a modest slowdown in net card fee growth over time.

在這種環境下，隨著新賬戶增長速度放緩，我們預計網卡費用增長將隨著時間的推移而適度放緩。

Net interest income growth of 13% was faster than the 3% average loan growth we saw in the first quarter driven by a modest tailwind from interest rate reductions year-over-year as well as continued yield benefits from mix and pricing for risk.

淨利息收入增長 13%，高於我們在第一季度看到的 3% 平均貸款增長速度，這是由於同比降息帶來的溫和推動以及風險組合和定價帶來的持續收益收益所推動的。

The details around average AR and yield trends can be found in the appendix on Slide 28.

有關平均 AR 和收益率趨勢的詳細信息可以在幻燈片 28 的附錄中找到。

In addition, as I mentioned earlier in my remarks, we saw softness in some ancillary revenue lines, particularly from travel-related revenue streams that are relatively immaterial and typically don't change much quarter-to-quarter but were down significantly year-over-year in the first quarter.

此外，正如我之前在發言中提到的，我們看到一些輔助收入線疲軟，特別是與旅行相關的收入流，這些收入流相對無關緊要，通常季度與季度之間變化不大，但同比大幅下降- 年第一季度。

Turning then to the largest component of our revenue, discount revenue.

然後談談我們收入的最大組成部分，折扣收入。

I'd move you ahead to Slide 16.

我會將您移至幻燈片 16。

As you can see on the right, discount revenue declined 5% for the full quarter and 27% in the month of March.

如右圖所示，整個季度的折扣收入下降了 5%，3 月份下降了 27%。

The contraction in discount revenue was larger than the decline in billed business.

折扣收入的降幅大於計費業務的降幅。

On average, we earn higher discount revenues from our T&E merchants than we do from our non-T&E merchants.

平均而言，我們從差旅及娛樂商戶獲得的折扣收入高於非差旅及娛樂商戶獲得的折扣收入。

So given the much larger declines we are seeing in T&E spend, the divergence in T&E and non-T&E billing trends drove a 3 basis point decline in the average discount rate in the first quarter and a 10 basis point decline in the average discount rate in March relative to the prior year.

因此，考慮到我們看到的差旅及娛樂支出大幅下降，差旅及娛樂和非差旅及娛樂計費趨勢的差異導致第一季度平均折扣率下降 3 個基點，2019 年平均折扣率下降 10 個基點。 3 月份相對於去年。

Looking forward, if the spending trends we see in early April persist with T&E spending down about 95% for the entirety of the second quarter, our discount rate erosion in the second quarter could be as much as 14 to 18 basis points.

展望未來，如果我們在 4 月初看到的支出趨勢持續下去，整個第二季度的差旅及娛樂支出下降約 95%，那麼我們第二季度的貼現率下降可能高達 14 至 18 個基點。

Now let's talk about our expenses.

現在我們來談談我們的開支。

When you think about our cost structure, you've got the costs that come down naturally as spend declines and certain behaviors change.

當您考慮我們的成本結構時，您會發現隨著支出的減少和某些行為的改變，成本會自然下降。

And when you look at the 3 customer engagement expense lines shown on Slide 17, you see this dynamic in the sequential change in growth between 2019 and the first quarter of 2020.

當您查看幻燈片 17 中顯示的 3 個客戶參與費用項目時，您會看到 2019 年至 2020 年第一季度增長的連續變化中的這種動態。

One way you might think about this dynamic in the current environment is that as our revenue goes down in the near term, you could see about a 50% offset to the revenue movement in these lines.

在當前環境下，您可能會想到這種動態的一種方式是，隨著我們的收入在短期內下降，您可能會看到這些產品線的收入變動大約有 50% 的抵消。

Other expenses, such as marketing and OpEx, move based on management decisions.

其他費用，例如營銷和運營支出，根據管理決策而變化。

As Steve discussed, in light of the current environment, we're aggressively reducing costs across the enterprise.

正如史蒂夫所討論的，鑑於當前的環境，我們正在積極降低整個企業的成本。

In fact, we're cutting discretionary expenses through the end of the year by $3 billion relative to our original plans.

事實上，到今年年底，我們將比原計劃削減 30 億美元的可自由支配開支。

We're also choosing to selectively reinvest some of these savings in initiatives that are key to our long-term growth strategy.

我們還選擇有選擇地將部分節省下來的資金再投資於對我們長期增長戰略至關重要的舉措。

Looking at Slide 18, you see that the environment in March changed too quickly for us to see a significant impact from these decisions in our first quarter marketing and operating expenses.

查看幻燈片 18，您會發現 3 月份的環境變化太快，我們無法看到這些決策對我們第一季度的營銷和運營費用產生的重大影響。

So let me explain how we expect those cost reductions to impact these lines from a year-over-year standpoint going forward.

因此，讓我解釋一下，從未來逐年的角度來看，我們預計這些成本削減將如何影響這些生產線。

In the balance of the year, we expect to dramatically reduce our proactive marketing efforts and reinvest in the additional product benefits that Steve spoke about in his opening remarks while reducing many other costs.

在今年剩下的時間裡，我們預計將大幅減少主動營銷工作，並對史蒂夫在開場白中談到的額外產品優勢進行再投資，同時減少許多其他成本。

As a result, I would expect our operating expenses to be down about $1 billion year-over-year cumulatively over the next 3 quarters.

因此，我預計未來 3 個季度我們的運營支出將同比累計減少約 10 億美元。

On the marketing line, we are funding the additional product benefit adjustments that Steve discussed with our other marketing cuts.

在營銷方面，我們正在為史蒂夫與我們其他營銷削減討論的額外產品利益調整提供資金。

The net of the 2 should result in a modest reduction in marketing investment levels relative to last year.

兩者相加應該會導致營銷投資水平相對於去年略有下降。

Moving last to capital on Slide 19.

最後轉到幻燈片 19 上的大寫。

As Steve mentioned earlier, we are entering the current crisis with a strong capital position.

正如史蒂夫之前提到的，我們正以強大的資本狀況進入當前的危機。

Our CET1 ratio was 11.7% at the end of the first quarter, above our 10% to 11% CET1 target range.

截至第一季度末，我們的 CET1 比率為 11.7%，高於我們 10% 至 11% CET1 的目標範圍。

The sequential growth in our CET1 ratio was driven by the countercyclical nature of our balance sheet.

我們的 CET1 比率的環比增長是由我們資產負債表的反週期性質推動的。

As our balance sheet shrinks with declining AR and loan balances in the current environment, our risk-weighted assets drop accordingly.

在當前環境下，隨著我們的資產負債表隨著應收賬款和貸款餘額的下降而收縮，我們的風險加權資產也相應下降。

I would also note that our first quarter CET1 ratio includes a roughly 80 basis point impact from the 5-year transition option made available under the Fed rule to delay any capital effects of CECL until 2022.

我還要指出的是，我們第一季度的 CET1 比率包括根據美聯儲規則提供的 5 年過渡選項帶來的約 80 個基點的影響，該選項將 CECL 的任何資本效應推遲到 2022 年。

We repurchased $0.9 billion worth -- $900 million worth of shares in the first quarter but have suspended our share repurchase program as of mid-March, and we do not expect to resume share repurchases for the time being given the current environment.

我們在第一季度回購了價值 9 億美元（即 9 億美元）的股票，但從 3 月中旬起暫停了股票回購計劃，鑑於當前環境，我們預計暫時不會恢復股票回購。

However, with our strong capital position, we have the capacity and intend to continue to pay our dividend in the second quarter.

然而，憑藉我們強大的資本狀況，我們有能力並打算在第二季度繼續支付股息。

Turning to Slide 20.

轉向幻燈片 20。

The countercyclical nature of our business is also reflected in our particularly strong liquidity position during the first quarter.

我們業務的反週期性質也反映在我們第一季度特別強勁的流動性狀況上。

Our cash and investments balance increased from $32 billion to $41 billion in Q1 driven mainly by the decline in AR and loans.

第一季度，我們的現金和投資餘額從 320 億美元增加到 410 億美元，這主要是由於應收賬款和貸款的下降。

We also saw strong demand for personal savings deposits during the first quarter even as we adjusted pricing given the current rate environment.

儘管我們根據當前的利率環境調整了定價，但我們在第一季度也看到了對個人儲蓄存款的強勁需求。

Our personal savings deposit base is up 6% versus the prior quarter and up 16% year-over-year.

我們的個人儲蓄存款基礎比上一季度增長 6%，同比增長 16%。

Putting it all together, our capital funding and liquidity positions are strong, and we have significant flexibility to maintain a strong balance sheet in periods of uncertainty or stress.

總而言之，我們的資本融資和流動性狀況強勁，並且我們具有很大的靈活性，可以在不確定或壓力時期維持強勁的資產負債表。

In summary, we are certainly in unprecedented times.

總而言之，我們無疑正處於前所未有的時代。

And looking ahead, it's impossible to forecast our financial results for the rest of the year without knowing the answer to the 2 questions Steve posed earlier: when and how quickly the economy improves and what happens to unemployment and the pace of small business recovery.

展望未來，如果不知道史蒂夫之前提出的兩個問題的答案，就不可能預測我們今年剩餘時間的財務業績：經濟何時以及以多快的速度改善，失業率會發生什麼以及小企業復甦的速度。

Until then, we're focused on supporting our colleagues and customers, prudently managing our risk exposure and expense base and ensuring that our capital and liquidity levels stay strong so that we can take advantage of the inevitable rebound for our customers, colleagues and shareholders.

在此之前，我們將專注於支持我們的同事和客戶，審慎管理我們的風險敞口和費用基礎，並確保我們的資本和流動性水平保持強勁，以便我們能夠利用客戶、同事和股東不可避免的反彈。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Vivian.

說完，我會把電話轉回給薇薇安。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions.

話務員現在將開放提問線路。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani 線路。

And I hope you guys are well.

我希望你們一切都好。

I wanted to follow up on the cost reduction commentary.

我想跟進有關成本削減的評論。

And I'm curious, Steve and Jeff, you mentioned these are unprecedented times and a lot of the situation is fluid.

我很好奇，史蒂夫和傑夫，你們提到現在是前所未有的時代，很多情況都是不穩定的。

I mean if things continue to remain as depressed as they are or even get worse, how much more can you cut on costs?

我的意思是，如果情況繼續如此低迷甚至變得更糟，你還能削減多少成本？

Because it seems like you're selectively still making some investments here.

因為看起來你仍然有選擇性地在這裡進行一些投資。

Is there room to take down costs further than you've outlined?

是否有比您所概述的進一步降低成本的空間？

And just on a related note, as we think about your card product orientation being travel and entertainment driven, I mean, do you see people sort of shifting away to other cards as a result?

與此相關的是，當我們考慮您的卡產品定位是旅行和娛樂驅動時，我的意思是，您是否看到人們因此而轉向其他卡？

And are there any proactive strategies that you can employ as a result?

因此，您可以採取哪些積極主動的策略？

Okay.

好的。

So let me -- it's a very slick way of asking 2 questions, but let me answer the second one first.

所以讓我——這是一種非常巧妙的方式來問兩個問題，但讓我先回答第二個問題。

I think what's important to understand with our card base is that 73% of our spending is on non T&E.

我認為了解我們的卡庫的重要一點是，我們 73% 的支出用於非差旅費。

And while you look at the benefits that we do have on our card base, what our card members really appreciate is experiences of all types, great service and our brand.

當您看到我們的卡庫所提供的好處時，我們的持卡會員真正欣賞的是各種類型的體驗、優質的服務和我們的品牌。

And what you'll see coming out in early May is actual product refreshes to a number of our products, which will infuse additional value in addition to the value that a card may have.

您將在五月初看到我們許多產品的實際產品更新，這將在卡可能具有的價值之外注入額外的價值。

So if you look at our Platinum Card where you have fine hotels and resorts and you have Uber credits and you have other travel benefits and lounges and so forth, you will see other enhancements there, from wireless to streaming to maybe some other types of travel credits, which can be used in the future over a time period.

因此，如果您查看我們的白金卡，其中有優質酒店和度假村、優步積分、其他旅行優惠和休息室等，您會看到其他增強功能，從無線到流媒體，再到其他一些類型的旅行積分，可以在未來一段時間內使用。

But I think what you'll also see in the short term is card members using that and using the points.

但我認為短期內你還會看到持卡會員使用它並使用積分。

In the longer term, I think here's where our product refresh strategy really does help us, because we will continue to modify products as the environment continues to change and morph.

從長遠來看，我認為這就是我們的產品更新策略真正對我們有幫助的地方，因為隨著環境的不斷變化和變化，我們將繼續修改產品。

And so we think some of those benefits will come back over to -- some of the benefits that card members use will come back over time.

因此，我們認為其中一些福利將隨著時間的推移而恢復，持卡會員使用的一些福利將恢復。

So I don't think that we will see people switch products.

所以我認為我們不會看到人們更換產品。

And just a comment on the co-brand product, 90% of our co-brand spend is off the co-brand partner.

僅就聯合品牌產品而言，我們 90% 的聯合品牌支出都來自聯合品牌合作夥伴。

So if you think about Delta, you think about Marriott, you think about Hilton, it's less than 10% of that spending is actually at those properties for those particular things.

因此，如果您想到達美航空、萬豪酒店、希爾頓酒店，您會發現只有不到 10% 的支出實際上花在了這些酒店的特定用途上。

And so what I would say is we will continue to evaluate, we'll continue to monitor, but you will see value injection going back into these products.

所以我想說的是，我們將繼續評估，我們將繼續監控，但你會看到價值注入又回到了這些產品中。

And historically, and these are not historical times, but historically, there's a tremendous resiliency in our fee-based portfolios.

從歷史上看，現在不是歷史時期，但從歷史上看，我們的收費投資組合具有巨大的彈性。

And so you'll see a lot of fee -- you'll see a lot of value injection into those fee-based cards, as I had mentioned before.

所以你會看到很多費用——你會看到這些收費卡注入了很多價值，正如我之前提到的。

The one thing I will say, and then I'll let Jeff talk sort of technically to the cost, what I think is critically important for us is that we support our customers.

我要說的一件事是，然後我會讓傑夫從技術上談論成本，我認為對我們來說至關重要的是我們支持我們的客戶。

I mean I started out during this crisis, we moved rapidly to get our colleagues out of our facilities.

我的意思是，我從這場危機開始，我們迅速採取行動，讓我們的同事離開我們的設施。

Within a 2-week time period, we were basically 100% virtual around the world.

在兩週的時間內，我們在全球範圍內基本上實現了 100% 虛擬化。

The only people you'll find in our buildings today are security people and maintenance people and not a lot of them.

今天，您在我們的建築物中找到的唯一人員是保安人員和維護人員，而且數量不多。

And so we rapidly moved that.

所以我們迅速改變了這一點。

Once we did that, our next focus really turned to our customers.

一旦我們做到了這一點，我們的下一個重點就真正轉向了我們的客戶。

And what was really important through this crisis and through any crisis, and I've talked about this over the last sort of 10 quarters or so, is that it was important for us to protect our brand, it was important for us to be there for our customers and it was important for us to stick with those initiatives that inevitably would be important when this crisis ended.

在這場危機和任何危機中，真正重要的是，我在過去 10 個季度左右的時間裡一直在談論這一點，這對我們來說很重要，保護我們的品牌，對我們來說很重要對於我們的客戶來說，堅持這些舉措對我們來說很重要，當這場危機結束時，這些舉措不可避免地會很重要。

Merchant coverage will be important.

商戶覆蓋範圍將很重要。

Our efforts in China will be important.

我們在中國的努力非常重要。

Our platform initiatives will be important.

我們的平台舉措將非常重要。

And so while we are very focused on staying financially strong, we're also focused on ensuring that when this crisis is over, we have been there for our customers and are ready to continue to hit the ground running.

因此，雖然我們非常注重保持財務實力，但我們也注重確保在這場危機結束後，我們一直為客戶服務，並準備好繼續開展業務。

And so we talked a lot about what we've stopped, what we've accelerated and what we've slowed down.

因此，我們談論了很多我們已經停止的事情、我們已經加速的事情以及我們已經放慢的事情。

And I'll tell you the $3 billion of cost that we cut out of our plan, and I've been doing cost cutting for decades at this company, was probably one of the largest cost cuts that we've ever done.

我會告訴你，我們從計劃中削減的 30 億美元成本，我在這家公司幾十年來一直在削減成本，這可能是我們有史以來最大的成本削減之一。

And this is not a run rate number.

這不是運行率數字。

This was $3 billion out of the plan in the next 8 months.

這超出了未來 8 個月計劃的 30 億美元。

And some of that money will be put back in for value injection.

其中一些資金將被重新投入價值注入。

So the reality is, is there more to go?

那麼現實是，還有更多的事情要做嗎？

There is always more to go.

總是有更多的事情要做。

There will always be more to go.

總會有更多的事情要做。

We decided to do no layoffs.

我們決定不裁員。

And the reason we decided to do no layoffs is -- there are numerous reasons for that.

我們決定不裁員的原因是——有很多原因。

Number one is humanitarian aspect of this.

第一是人道主義方面。

Number two is the disruption.

第二是破壞。

To try and lay off people in a virtual environment is nearly impossible.

在虛擬環境中嘗試裁員幾乎是不可能的。

And number three, we don't know what the world is going to look like.

第三，我們不知道世界會是什麼樣子。

And so while we're not going to take layoffs off the table for the future, we certainly are taking layoffs off the table for the rest of the year.

因此，雖然我們不會在未來取消裁員，但我們肯定會在今年剩餘時間內取消裁員。

I'll let Jeff comment on sort of the technical aspect of where we have it, where we have that opportunity.

我會讓傑夫評論一下我們在哪裡擁有它、在哪裡有這樣的機會的技術方面。

But you saw a large reduction year-over-year in operating costs, and most of your models assumed growth in operating costs.

但您發現運營成本同比大幅下降，並且大多數模型都假設運營成本增長。

So that came right out as well.

所以這也隨之而來。

But Jeff, let me turn it to you.

但是傑夫，讓我把它交給你。

Well, the only thing I'd add, Steve, is to your point, you can always react further, Sanjay, to the environment.

好吧，史蒂夫，我唯一要補充的是，就你的觀點而言，桑傑，你總是可以對環境做出進一步的反應。

And we asked ourselves 2 questions on cost.

我們問自己兩個關於成本的問題。

We took out everything we didn't need to support customers, as Steve said, and we left things in or we cut everything that couldn't be put back quickly or that we made sure we weren't cutting things that couldn't be put back quickly in the inevitable rebound.

正如史蒂夫所說，我們拿出了支持客戶不需要的所有東西，然後我們留下了一些東西，或者我們削減了所有無法快速放回去的東西，或者我們確保我們沒有削減那些無法恢復的東西。在不可避免的反彈中迅速放回去。

The other point I would make is we're not hiring people today.

我要說的另一點是我們今天不招聘人員。

So the reality is, when you have 64,000 people and you stop external hiring, with each passing quarter, our costs will be going down.

所以現實是，當你有 64,000 名員工並且停止外部招聘時，每個季度我們的成本都會下降。

And also, with each passing quarter -- since you raised the question is what if the world really radically changes and stays down for a long time, with each passing quarter, our view of what we might need to put back is going to change.

而且，隨著每個季度的過去——既然你提出了這樣的問題：如果世界真的發生了根本性的變化並長期處於低迷狀態，那麼隨著每個季度的過去，我們對可能需要投入的資金的看法將會發生變化。

So we will continue to react.

因此我們將繼續做出反應。

It will come from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

它將由富國銀行的唐·范德蒂 (Don Fandetti) 提供。

Steve, certainly good to see your billed business growth stabilizing in April.

史蒂夫，很高興看到您的賬單業務增長在四月份趨於穩定。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about -- coming out of the crisis in '09, you guys took share.

我想知道你們能否談談 09 年走出危機後你們分享的情況。

A lot of the banks were short in capital or struggling with capital issues.

許多銀行資本短缺或陷入資本問題。

Do you think -- how do you think the competitive dynamic looks on the other side of this?

您認為另一方面的競爭動態如何？

And do you think that you can be opportunistic and take share?

你認為你可以投機取巧並分享嗎？

Well, Don, certainly, that's the intent.

嗯，唐，當然，這就是目的。

I mean that's the intent, as Jeff just said, about not shutting down these channels.

我的意思是，正如傑夫剛才所說，這就是不關閉這些渠道的意圖。

If you shut down completely your acquisition channels, whether that be digital, whether that be direct mail, if you start cutting your sales organization and so forth, obviously it's going to be hard to do that.

如果你完全關閉你的獲取渠道，無論是數字渠道，無論是直郵渠道，如果你開始削減你的銷售組織等等，顯然這將很難做到。

It's hard to say where our competitors are overall in their overall business.

很難說我們的競爭對手的整體業務處於什麼位置。

Our business is, as you know, very monolithic.

如您所知，我們的業務非常單一。

The only piece of our business that we have to focus on is the credit card business, whether that is corporate, small business and premium consumer.

我們唯一需要關注的業務是信用卡業務，無論是企業、小型企業還是高端消費者。

How this whole pandemic plays out across all the other aspects of the financial services industry is yet to be seen.

整個流行病如何在金融服務業的所有其他方面發揮作用還有待觀察。

What's going to be the impact on commercial real estate, commercial lending, car loans, mortgages, so forth and so on?

這將對商業房地產、商業貸款、汽車貸款、抵押貸款等產生什麼影響？

Traditionally, what's happened is, we had bounced back a lot quicker.

傳統上，我們的反彈速度要快得多。

Our card base tends to be a lot more resilient, and there is pent-up demand for our products and services.

我們的卡庫往往更具彈性，並且對我們的產品和服務有被壓抑的需求。

This is not a traditional environment that we're in, but our intent is to come out of this very, very strong with our sales channels intact, with our acquisition engines pumping and actually to take share as we did in '09 and as we did after the Internet bubble.

這不是我們所處的傳統環境，但我們的目的是擺脫這種非常非常強大的局面，我們的銷售渠道完好無損，我們的收購引擎不斷運轉，並實際上像我們在 09 年所做的那樣，奪取市場份額。是在互聯網泡沫之後做的。

That's the intent, which is why we're sticking with a number of the growth initiatives.

這就是我們的意圖，也是我們堅持實施多項增長舉措的原因。

And more importantly, while it's easy to cut back on merchant acquisition, when all of this is said and done, people are going to have a huge pent-up desire to spend, and we want to make sure we're able to continue to provide the access to all the alternatives that are available to spend at a merchant -- from a merchant perspective.

更重要的是，雖然減少商家收購很容易，但當所有這些都說完並完成後，人們將會有巨大的被壓抑的消費慾望，我們希望確保我們能夠繼續從商家的角度來看，提供對商家可消費的所有替代方案的訪問。

Our next question will come from the line of Mark DeVries with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的馬克·德弗里斯。

Yes.

是的。

And I just want to thank you for the new slides.

我只想感謝您提供的新幻燈片。

There are some very good -- this is very clear.

有一些非常好——這一點非常清楚。

So my question is on the impact on the loan book.

所以我的問題是對貸款賬簿的影響。

If we see billed business at these levels, what sort of runoff should we expect?

如果我們看到這些水平的計費業務，我們應該期待什麼樣的徑流？

And what are the implications of that for a need to maybe resume share repurchases to avoid getting too capital inefficient?

這對於可能需要恢復股票回購以避免資本效率過於低下有何影響？

Well, it's a good question, Mark.

嗯，這是個好問題，馬克。

I think when you think about our loan book, there's, of course, a fair amount of just transactors in there.

我想當你想到我們的貸款簿時，當然，裡面有相當數量的正義交易者。

So I think you will probably, if the world stays as it is today, see a more significant decline in the loan book in the second quarter.

因此，我認為，如果世界保持現狀，您可能會看到第二季度貸款賬簿出現更顯著的下降。

Depending on how the world evolves, I frankly pass that might expect a little bit more stabilization.

根據世界如何演變，我坦率地認為可能會期望更加穩定。

From a capital perspective, the thing we are really focused on is making sure we stay really strong financially so we can be opportunistic about some of the things Steve was just talking about, trying to gain some share in the inevitable rebound or other opportunities that might come up in the current environment.

從資本的角度來看，我們真正關注的是確保我們在財務上保持真正強大的實力，這樣我們就可以對史蒂夫剛才談到的一些事情持機會主義態度，試圖在不可避免的反彈或其他可能出現的機會中獲得一些份額。在當前環境下出現。

The last point I'd make is that does mean when growth resumes, the balance sheet then goes in the opposite direction and it grows?

我要說的最後一點是，這是否意味著當增長恢復時，資產負債表就會朝相反的方向發展並增長？

So we need to make sure that we have enough capital to support very rapid growth when the inevitable rebound happens.

因此，當不可避免的反彈發生時，我們需要確保有足夠的資本來支持非常快速的增長。

And so what does that mean for share repurchase?

那麼這對股票回購意味著什麼呢？

Boy, I think, like so many things, Mark, we have to take that quarter by quarter and see where we are.

天啊，我想，就像很多事情一樣，馬克，我們必須一個季度一個季度地看我們的情況。

Our next question will come from the line of Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

One moment.

一會兒。

Mr. Shane, your line is open.

肖恩先生，您的電話已接通。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And I hope everybody is well there.

我希望那裡的每個人都一切都好。

When we look at the change in reserve, under CECL, charge was going to be treated -- it was going to have a very favorable treatment.

當我們看到儲備金的變化時，根據 CECL，費用將得到處理——它將得到非常優惠的處理。

And there was a pretty significant spike in the CECL in the reserve this quarter.

本季度儲備中的 CECL 出現了相當大的增長。

I'm assuming that that's associated with small business.

我假設這與小企業有關。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

And the second part of that question is, is there an opportunity to move some of the charge product to pay over time to give some relief?

該問題的第二部分是，是否有機會將部分收費產品逐步支付以提供一些緩解？

So you're correct, Rick, that the charge reserves under CECL were actually, to remind everyone, a reduction from the reserves we used to have under FAS 5, whereas, obviously, the lending reserves went in the other direction.

所以，Rick，你是對的，提醒大家，CECL 下的費用準備金實際上比我們以前根據 FAS 5 擁有的準備金有所減少，而顯然，貸款準備金卻走向了另一個方向。

You're also correct that when you look at charge and when you look at our loan book today, I think it's fair to say that the sector that has shown the most immediate stress is small business, right?

你也是對的，當你看看收費和今天我們的貸款簿時，我認為可以公平地說，表現出最直接壓力的部門是小企業，對嗎？

You shut down small businesses and a savvy business owner is going to say, boy, I need to go into cash conservation mode.

你關閉了小企業，精明的企業主會說，孩子，我需要進入現金節約模式。

And in many ways, what our pandemic relief programs are about is trying to help people through that transition.

從很多方面來說，我們的流行病救助計劃的目的就是試圖幫助人們度過這一過渡。

And so the question really is how long do shutdowns last.

因此，真正的問題是關閉會持續多久。

Can we help bridge our small business customers long enough to help them resume business?

我們能否為小型企業客戶提供足夠長的幫助以幫助他們恢復業務？

And we're exploring every possible avenue about how you help them with payment terms and fee deferrals, et cetera, to help them come back strong and help the economy grow.

我們正在探索各種可能的途徑，幫助他們解決付款條件和費用延期等問題，以幫助他們強勢回歸併促進經濟增長。

Yes.

是的。

And I think the other thing from a small business perspective, these are people that are not used to being in this situation at all.

我認為，從小企業的角度來看，另一件事是，這些人根本不習慣處於這種情況。

I mean you think about every other credit crisis we've ever had, no one ever shut down -- we never shut down the economy, right?

我的意思是，你想想我們曾經經歷過的所有其他信貸危機，沒有人曾經關閉過——我們從未關閉過經濟，對嗎？

I mean things got hard, things got tough, but we never shut down the economy and when you look at our small businesses and you look at sort of the credit profile of our small businesses, these are people that would have high FICO and they're prime and super-prime as well much like consumers.

我的意思是，事情變得艱難，事情變得艱難，但我們從未關閉經濟，當你看看我們的小企業，看看我們小企業的信用狀況時，這些人會有很高的 FICO，他們’ re prime 和 super prime 也很像消費者。

And if you look at our programs that we have, the programs are 1 to 3 months of relief, then we have short-term programs and then we have our longer hardship programs.

如果你看看我們的計劃，就會發現這些計劃是 1 到 3 個月的救濟計劃，然後我們有短期計劃，然後我們有更長的困難計劃。

So I think we'll be in good shape there because it's really getting people through this tumultuous period.

所以我認為我們會在那裡保持良好的狀態，因為它確實幫助人們度過了這個動蕩的時期。

As far as the charge product, the charge product has a pay-over-time feature, a what's called lending on charge.

就收費產品而言，收費產品具有分時付費的功能，即所謂的收費貸款。

And so people could use that.

所以人們可以使用它。

But they could also use one of our hardship programs.

但他們也可以使用我們的困難計劃之一。

And I think one of the things that we're really focused on is retaining membership at the end of this.

我認為我們真正關注的事情之一是最終保留會員資格。

So what is the carrot at the end?

那麼最後的胡蘿蔔是什麼？

These are good customers who are in a bad time through no fault of their own, and we'd like to retain them as customers.

這些都是好客戶，但他們並不是因為自己的過錯而陷入了困境，我們希望保留他們作為客戶。

And so as you look at our programs and how we're structuring them, we're also structuring them with a way to return to the franchise over time.

因此，當您查看我們的計劃以及我們如何構建它們時，我們也在構建它們以隨著時間的推移回歸特許經營權。

So that's in answer to your other question.

這就是對你的另一個問題的回答。

Our next question will be from Bill Carcache with Nomura.

我們的下一個問題將由野村證券的比爾·卡卡什提出。

Steve and Jeff, is there any indication that the customers who are filing for initial claims are broadly representative of the Amex customer base?

史蒂夫和傑夫，是否有任何跡象表明提出初步索賠的客戶廣泛代表了美國運通客戶群？

There's been some suggestion that a disproportionate percentage of those filing are, for example, entry-level restaurant employees who may not be representative of the Amex population.

有人認為，提交申請的人中，入門級餐廳員工的比例過高，他們可能無法代表美國運通公司的人口。

And therefore, some of the traditional relationships that we've seen between initial claims and reserve building could break down.

因此，我們所看到的初始索賠和儲備建設之間的一些傳統關係可能會破裂。

I would appreciate your thoughts on that.

我很感激你對此的想法。

Well, I think, Bill, I'd start by going back to something I said in my remarks, which is I think it's worth noting that over 88% of the balances, U.S. consumer and small business enrolled in the program, are from prime and super-prime card members.

嗯，我想，比爾，我首先要回到我在發言中所說的，我認為值得注意的是，超過 88% 的餘額（參與該計劃的美國消費者和小型企業）來自黃金時期以及超級卡會員。

And this goes back, I think, Steve, to your point, but these are not people who are used to being in stress.

我想，史蒂夫，這可以追溯到你的觀點，但這些人並不習慣承受壓力。

It's just such an unprecedented environment.

這真是一個前所未有的環境。

And so look, we'll have to see how this plays out, but these are good card members on the consumer side and thriving businesses until they suddenly were forced by the government to shut down on the small business side.

因此，我們必須看看這將如何發揮作用，但這些是消費者方面的良好持卡會員和蓬勃發展的企業，直到他們突然被政府強迫關閉小企業方面。

And that's why we're really focused on working hard with them to help bridge the current environment and also hopefully let some of the government programs kick in and help.

這就是為什麼我們真正專注於與他們努力合作，幫助彌合當前的環境，並希望讓一些政府項目發揮作用並提供幫助。

Our next question will be from Robert Napoli with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題將由羅伯特·那不勒斯和威廉·布萊爾提出。

Steve, Jeff, glad you guys are well and appreciate the call and all the additional detail.

史蒂夫、傑夫，很高興你們都安然無恙，感謝你們的來電和所有額外的細節。

The world is -- I mean, the post-COVID world is going to change, I think, at least somewhat.

我認為，我的意思是，後新冠疫情時代的世界將會發生變化，至少會有所改變。

I'm sure we've all been on a lot of Zoom calls or Microsoft Teams calls or whatever, but business travel has been an important part of your business.

我確信我們都參加過很多 Zoom 電話或 Microsoft Teams 電話或其他什麼電話，但商務旅行一直是您業務的重要組成部分。

I think consumer travel will return.

我認為消費者旅行將會回歸。

The business travel may be less -- materially less.

商務旅行可能會減少——實質上減少。

B2B payments, I think you're involved in B2B payments and through several partnerships with the bill.com or several other companies, MineralTree, et cetera.

B2B 支付，我認為您參與了 B2B 支付，並通過與 bill.com 或其他幾家公司、MineralTree 等的多個合作夥伴關係。

But what are your thoughts on how the world is going to change?

但您對世界將如何改變有何看法？

And how does Amex prepare for that?

美國運通為此做了哪些準備？

On the B2B payment side, are you seeing more demand for stuff like AP automation as well?

在 B2B 支付方面，您是否也看到了對 AP 自動化等產品的更多需求？

I know it's a small part of your business.

我知道這只是你業務的一小部分。

Yes.

是的。

So it's a great question.

所以這是一個很好的問題。

And we obviously listened to Ed Bastian's earnings call yesterday.

昨天我們顯然聽取了埃德·巴斯蒂安的財報電話會議。

And what Ed said, it's probably going to take 3 years for travel to come back to where it is.

正如埃德所說，旅行可能需要三年時間才能回到原來的狀態。

And let's just put this in context, I think, because I think that's really important.

我認為，讓我們將其放在上下文中，因為我認為這非常重要。

When you think about our commercial payments business, the majority of our commercial payments business is small business both in the U.S., international and middle market.

當你想到我們的商業支付業務時，我們的大部分商業支付業務都是美國、國際和中間市場的小型企業。

And a majority of that is 80% non-T&E with a focus on exactly what you talked about.

其中大部分是 80% 的非 T&E，重點關注您所談論的內容。

When you look at our corporate card business, our corporate card business is between 8% and 9% of our overall billings.

當你查看我們的公司卡業務時，我們的公司卡業務占我們總賬單的 8% 到 9% 之間。

60% of that is T&E.

其中 60% 是差旅費。

So you're looking at about 5% of our overall business which drives a lower proportionate share of not only revenue but net income as well.

因此，您看到的是我們整體業務的約 5%，這不僅導致收入的比例較低，而且淨利潤的比例也較低。

I think that will slow down.

我認為這會放緩。

But remember, in T&E, you've got multiple components.

但請記住，在 T&E 中，您有多個組件。

You've got restaurants, you've got hotel, you've got car rental and you do have air.

你有餐館，你有酒店，你有汽車租賃，你也有空氣。

And so I think we've all learned in this environment how to work virtually.

因此，我認為我們都在這種環境中學會瞭如何進行虛擬工作。

It is amazing, and we don't use Zoom, but we do use Webex, but it is amazing to see everybody on a Webex screen.

太神奇了，我們不使用 Zoom，但我們確實使用 Webex，但看到每個人都在 Webex 屏幕上真是太神奇了。

And quite honestly, I think there'll be more of that.

老實說，我認為還會有更多這樣的事情。

There'll be less of those trips that are needed.

所需的旅行將會減少。

And so I think you will see an inevitable decline in probably air travel.

因此，我認為航空旅行可能會不可避免地減少。

You'll still see people making trips in cars.

您仍然會看到人們開車出行。

You'll still see people going to restaurants, albeit restaurants will probably be reconfigured in the short term.

你仍然會看到人們去餐館，儘管餐館可能會在短期內重新配置。

But in the long term, I think it comes back pretty much to normal.

但從長遠來看，我認為它已經恢復正常了。

And so when you look at T&E, I think the travel piece of it and then the appropriate stay and the meal that goes along will probably go down, and it'll be a little bit of a reset moment.

因此，當你考慮差旅費時，我認為其中的旅行部分以及相應的住宿和膳食可能會下降，這將是一個重置時刻。

But our focus really has been on large corporate.

但我們的重點確實是大型企業。

And I said this before, not a lot of people were sort of driving T&E high.

我之前說過，沒有多少人會提高旅遊費用。

I mean they were sort of looking to maintain T&E to reduce T&E.

我的意思是，他們有點希望維持差旅費以減少差旅費。

And our focus with large corporate has been on B2B payments.

我們對大型企業的關注重點是 B2B 支付。

What we have seen in this short period of time is more automation of B2B payments.

我們在這麼短的時間內看到的是 B2B 支付更加自動化。

It is a small part of our business.

這是我們業務的一小部分。

But in a virtual environment, it has gone up significantly.

但在虛擬環境中，它卻顯著上升。

I mean not significantly enough to drive our overall volumes at this particular point in time, but it is amazing how much it's gone up from an automation perspective with our Acompay acquisition, with our integrations into Bill.com and MineralTree and Sage and others like SAP.

我的意思是，在這個特定的時間點，還不足以推動我們的整體銷量，但令人驚訝的是，從自動化的角度來看，通過我們收購 Acompay，以及我們與 Bill.com、MineralTree、Sage 和 SAP 等其他公司的集成，銷量增長了多少。

So I think you'll see more of a focus on that.

所以我認為你會看到更多的關注。

I think you'll see more spending there.

我想你會在那裡看到更多的支出。

And I think you will see an inevitable decline in some of the business travel and entertainment.

我認為你會看到一些商務旅行和娛樂活動不可避免地下降。

I think the consumer travel will come back over time.

我認為隨著時間的推移，消費者旅行將會回歸。

And I think the other thing is I am really happy with sort of the co-brand partners that we have.

我認為另一件事是我對我們擁有的聯合品牌合作夥伴感到非常滿意。

And Ed talked about this on his call yesterday in that from an airline perspective, safety will be defined in multiple ways now.

埃德昨天在電話中談到了這一點，從航空公司的角度來看，現在將通過多種方式來定義安全。

Safety was defined from a maintenance perspective, but it's also now going to be defined on how you treat your customers within the plane.

安全是從維護的角度來定義的，但現在也將根據您如何在飛機上對待乘客來定義。

It's going to be how you treat your customers within the hotel property.

這將是您在酒店內對待顧客的方式。

And I think when I think about Ed and Arne and Chris Nassetta, we're of equal minds there from a way to treat our customers.

我認為，當我想到埃德、阿恩和克里斯·納塞塔時，我們在對待客戶的方式上有著平等的想法。

And so I think you'll see a premiumness return actually to air travel, and I think that plays well for our customer base as well.

因此，我認為您會看到航空旅行的優質性回歸，而且我認為這對我們的客戶群也有好處。

And I think in this time, I think our acquisition of Resy is going to play really well in the short term as restaurants will probably reduce capacity and it will be harder to get reservations.

我認為，在這一次，我認為我們對 Resy 的收購將在短期內發揮得非常好，因為餐廳可能會減少容量，並且更難獲得預訂。

And we'll be able to utilize, as we talk about access and experiences, our assets to be able to help our card members get into and experience some of the great restaurants that are around this country.

當我們談論訪問和體驗時，我們將能夠利用我們的資產來幫助我們的持卡會員進入並體驗這個國家各地的一些很棒的餐廳。

Our next question will come from the line of Moshe Orenbuch with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸銀行的摩西·奧倫布赫 (Moshe Orenbuch)。

I wanted to follow up on that, Steve, because I think that you made some interesting points at the beginning about issues around your co-branded programs and the spending being kind of around outside of the partner and the comments about -- that you just made about kind of being special and at the top of the pile.

史蒂夫，我想跟進這一點，因為我認為您在一開始就圍繞聯合品牌計劃的問題提出了一些有趣的觀點，以及合作夥伴之外的支出以及有關的評論 - 您只是是為了顯得特別並且處於頂端。

But I guess the question that I have is, the fees that you just raised on a lot of those co-brands, the high-end cards, the actual benefits that the partner provides, whether it's Delta or one of the hotel chains, kind of are going to be less valuable to people at this point.

但我想我的問題是，你剛剛向許多聯合品牌、高端卡收取的費用，合作夥伴提供的實際好處，無論是達美航空還是連鎖酒店之一，都可以。此時，對人們的價值將會降低。

And so how do you think about what people do, whether they down-tier or actually shift their spending to another card?

那麼您如何看待人們的行為，無論他們是降級還是實際上將支出轉移到另一張卡上？

And how does that process work?

這個過程是如何進行的？

Yes.

是的。

I think what you'll see in the coming weeks is you'll see other benefits that will be added to those cards to sort of balance out the value.

我認為在接下來的幾週內，您將看到這些卡將添加其他好處，以平衡其價值。

I mean look, we're very focused on it.

我的意思是，看，我們非常專注於此。

Obviously, if you go in a blog, a blog is very focused on what is the value that you get for what you're paying.

顯然，如果您訪問博客，博客非常關注您付出的代價所獲得的價值。

And so you'll see enhancements to those cards that are not specifically either air or hotel related and, in particular, to those cards where fees were raised.

因此，您將看到那些與航空或酒店無關的卡的增強功能，特別是那些提高費用的卡。

And so you'll see extensions on benefits, but you'll also see other things that are non-hotel, non-air related which will provide more utility to the card in general.

因此，您會看到福利的擴展，但您還會看到其他非酒店、非航空相關的內容，這些內容通常將為該卡提供更多實用性。

I mean people have those cards to accumulate points for hotel stays, for airline and for so forth.

我的意思是，人們用這些卡來積累酒店住宿、航空等積分。

But I think, as I said and you just pointed out again, 90% of that spend is in other areas.

但我認為，正如我所說和你剛才再次指出的那樣，90% 的支出都花在了其他領域。

And so what we'll do is we'll enhance those products so that the value propositions are more in an equilibrium to what the environment is today.

因此，我們要做的就是增強這些產品，使價值主張與當今的環境更加平衡。

And that's what we'll continue to do, which is why I think having built the DNA in the company now to constantly refresh products is very important.

這就是我們將繼續做的事情，這就是為什麼我認為現在在公司中建立不斷更新產品的 DNA 非常重要。

And not just constantly refresh them on a sort of we run a 3- to 4-year cycle, but the ability within a couple of months now to add other benefits and to add other credits and other access and things like that will serve us well as we go through this because we're going to watch it very carefully.

不僅是在我們運行 3 到 4 年的周期中不斷刷新它們，而且現在能夠在幾個月內添加其他福利、添加其他積分和其他訪問權限以及類似的事情，這將為我們提供良好的服務當我們經歷這個的時候，因為我們會非常仔細地觀察它。

We're going to work with our partners very carefully to put those benefits that will continue to maintain the value and continue to maintain the price value that we strive to have with these cards.

我們將與我們的合作夥伴非常仔細地合作，以繼續保持這些卡的價值並繼續保持我們努力擁有的價格價值。

So I think it's a great question, and that's what the teams are working on with our partners.

所以我認為這是一個很好的問題，這也是我們的團隊正在與合作夥伴共同努力的方向。

Next question will be from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck 提出。

Steve and Jeff, I know we spoke a little bit earlier about small business.

史蒂夫和傑夫，我知道我們之前談到過小企業。

It is the single biggest question that I get on American Express ranging from credit quality questions to persistency of the business as we go through this COVID crisis.

這是我在美國運通遇到的最大問題，從信用質量問題到業務的持久性，我們經歷了這場新冠危機。

So I just wondered if you could refresh your comments with some more details around the -- how you see the credit quality, the different industries that are really dominating your small business portfolios.

所以我只是想知道您是否可以更新您的評論，提供更多有關您如何看待信用質量、真正主導您的小型企業投資組合的不同行業的詳細信息。

And if you could help us understand how long you feel your partners or your small business customers are set up to endure this shutdown that they have to deal with?

您是否可以幫助我們了解您認為您的合作夥伴或小型企業客戶能夠忍受他們必須應對的這種關閉需要多長時間？

Well, maybe I'll start, Betsy, with a few comments, and then Steve can chime in.

好吧，貝特西，也許我會先發表一些評論，然後史蒂夫可以插話。

So I am going to start by reciting for a third time the statistic I pointed out earlier that when you look across both consumer and small business, because many of our small business card members, well, they run their small business on a card, they still have credit scores and personal FICO scores, we can track.

因此，我將首先第三次回顧我之前指出的統計數據，當你縱觀消費者和小型企業時，因為我們的許多小型名片會員，嗯，他們在卡上經營他們的小型企業，他們還有信用評分和個人FICO評分，我們可以追踪。

So 88% of those people are prime and super-prime.

所以其中 88% 的人是素數和超素數。

And I just think that's an important first thing to think about.

我只是認為這是首先要考慮的重要事情。

Second, we have, I think, a lot more diversity in our small business card members than perhaps many people realize.

其次，我認為，我們的小型名片會員的多樣性可能比許多人意識到的要多得多。

And so, Steve, you were just talking earlier about the importance of restaurants to our value propositions and our partnership with Resy.

所以，史蒂夫，你剛才談到了餐廳對我們的價值主張以及我們與 Resy 的合作關係的重要性。

If you look at our OPEN card members, actually, restaurants are a fairly immaterial part of the card member base.

如果你看看我們的 OPEN 持卡會員，實際上，餐館在持卡會員群體中只是一個相當無關緊要的部分。

And in fact, the card member base is in some places you might not think about intuitively, Betsy, like construction, building materials, professional services, lawyers, doctors.

事實上，卡會員基礎存在於一些你可能無法直觀地想到的地方，貝特西，比如建築、建築材料、專業服務、律師、醫生。

And if you think about many of those kinds of small businesses, those are the businesses that are going to come back and thrive.

如果你考慮一下許多此類小型企業，就會發現這些企業將會回歸併蓬勃發展。

But clearly, when the government tells them, you've got to shut the doors, they would be, I think, financially irresponsible if they didn't say, boy, for a little while, I could pay American Express, but I just need to kind of hold on to my cash while I understand the environment.

但顯然，當政府告訴他們，你必須關門時，我認為，如果他們不說，孩子，暫時我可以支付美國運通卡，那麼他們在經濟上就是不負責任的，但我只是在了解環境的同時需要保留我的現金。

And that's a lot of the anecdotal dialogue we're having with our customers.

這就是我們與客戶進行的很多軼事對話。

So we'll have to see.

所以我們得看看。

As we said all along, the question is how long does unemployment stay at the astronomical levels it appears to be at now and how long do small businesses stay shut down.

正如我們一直以來所說的那樣，問題是失業率會在目前看來的天文數字水平上保持多久，以及小企業會關閉多久。

But Steve, you can add a little more.

但是史蒂夫，你可以再補充一點。

Yes.

是的。

No, I think it's a great question, and it's one that we look at all the time.

不，我認為這是一個很好的問題，也是我們一直在關注的一個問題。

But Jeff said a small percentage.

但傑夫說比例很小。

So less than 5% of our small business customers are actually restaurants.

因此，我們的小型企業客戶中實際上只有不到 5% 是餐館。

And when you look at sort of almost 25% of our small business customers, it's things like contractors, plumbing, electrical work, air conditioning.

當你觀察我們近 25% 的小型企業客戶時，你會發現它們是承包商、管道、電氣工程、空調等。

All those things are actually still continuing today maybe at a more reduced level because people don't want other people in the house.

所有這些事情實際上今天仍在繼續，也許程度有所降低，因為人們不希望其他人呆在家裡。

But they're not going -- those people are not going to go anywhere, and they usually have a lot of low overhead.

但他們不會去——那些人不會去任何地方，而且他們的管理費用通常很低。

But they may need that 3 months to get through it.

但他們可能需要3個月的時間來度過難關。

And when you look at business services, it's legal, it's automotive repair, it's beauty salons, barber shops, things like that, and a lot of those will still be there and come back as a lot of them are single proprietary institutions.

當你看商業服務時，它是合法的，它是汽車維修，它是美容院，理髮店，諸如此類的東西，其中很多仍然會在那裡並回來，因為其中很多都是單一的專有機構。

The other thing that I'll point out about our small businesses, while we do have a very high share of the market from a spend perspective, when you look at the overall sort of loan books, whether that be working capital, whether that be mortgage loans, auto loans and small businesses have just their own loan servicing, we're probably less than 2% of the U.S. market when it comes from an exposure perspective.

我要指出的關於我們小企業的另一件事，雖然從支出角度來看，我們確實擁有非常高的市場份額，但當你查看貸款賬簿的整體類型時，無論是營運資金，還是抵押貸款、汽車貸款和小企業只有自己的貸款服務，從風險敞口的角度來看，我們在美國市場的份額可能還不到 2%。

So when I look at it from a credit perspective, I think you just can't look at the card.

所以當我從信用的角度來看時，我認為你不能只看卡。

You need to look at the entire small business sort of ecosystem of what is out there.

您需要了解整個小型企業的生態系統。

And we're less than 2% of that.

而我們還不到其中的 2%。

And I would also leave you with the fact we are very, very diverse in terms of what our small business set is.

我還要告訴您一個事實，即我們的小型企業非常非常多樣化。

So we think it'll bounce back, and we feel good about our small business portfolio.

因此，我們認為它會反彈，而且我們對我們的小型企業投資組合感覺良好。

But it will go through -- like everything else, it will go through a tough period of time until the world starts to open again, which is why we think our relief programs are ideally suited for small businesses.

但它會經歷——就像其他事情一樣，它將經歷一段艱難的時期，直到世界重新開放，這就是為什麼我們認為我們的救濟計劃非常適合小型企業。

Our next question will come from Eric Wasserstrom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的 Eric Wasserstrom。

Can you hear me okay?

你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Not quite, but we can get it.

不完全是，但我們可以得到它。

All right.

好的。

Good.

好的。

Good, good.

好好。

So my question is about the credit experience.

所以我的問題是關於信用體驗。

Just doing the quick back-of-the-envelope from your ACL ratio suggests maybe an expectation around a 4.5-ish kind of percent peak loss experience.

僅從您的 ACL 比率快速粗略地了解一下，可能會出現 4.5% 左右的峰值損失體驗。

And I'm wondering if you can maybe put that in context of past downturns.

我想知道您是否可以將其放在過去經濟低迷的背景下。

I think, as I recall from your peak quarter of losses in '09, something like 9.7%, something like that.

我想，正如我所記得的，你們 09 年虧損最高的季度，大概是 9.7% 之類的。

So I was wondering if you could just maybe put that in context.

所以我想知道你是否可以將其放在上下文中。

And maybe the broader question is does this circumstance perhaps suggest -- or has it caused it to -- caused you to reconsider whether expanding lending is most value maximizing for Amex?

也許更廣泛的問題是，這種情況是否可能暗示——或者是否導致——讓你重新考慮擴大貸款是否對美國運通來說是最大的價值最大化？

So let me maybe make a few comments about the credit reserves, Steve, and you might talk about risk management in the current environment.

因此，讓我對信貸儲備發表一些評論，史蒂夫，你可能會談論當前環境下的風險管理。

So Eric, gosh, if you think about past experiences, the Great Financial Crisis, I think it took 6 quarters for the economy to get up to close to 10% unemployment rates.

所以埃里克，天哪，如果你想想過去的經歷，金融危機，我認為經濟花了 6 個季度的時間才達到接近 10% 的失業率。

And in the current environment, in 6 weeks, we appear to have gone way beyond that.

在當前環境下，六週內，我們似乎已經遠遠超出了這個範圍。

So that makes it very hard to predict exactly how things are going to play out.

因此，很難準確預測事情將如何發展。

Clearly, if unemployment stays at the level it is at now, then you should expect lifetime losses across the entirety of the financial services sector that are greater than what you saw in the Great Financial Crisis.

顯然，如果失業率保持在目前的水平，那麼整個金融服務業的終生損失應該會比金融危機期間更大。

On the other hand, the government is throwing unprecedented amounts of money at things here.

另一方面，政府正在為此投入前所未有的巨額資金。

We'll have to see where that goes.

我們必須看看它會走向何方。

I'm also not sure peak write-off rates really make -- are a useful way to think about this, right?

我也不確定峰值沖銷率是否真的是思考這個問題的有用方法，對嗎？

Under CECL, we're trying to, every quarter, close the books and put on the books a reserve for the lifetime losses we expect for what loans and receivables are on the books.

根據CECL，我們試圖每個季度關閉賬簿，並為賬簿上的貸款和應收賬款預期的終生損失記入準備金。

And that's what we did, is we closed the books in April.

這就是我們所做的，我們在四月份關閉了賬目。

Now we'll have to see where we are at the end of June.

現在我們必須看看六月底的情況。

But I am going to close, before I turn it over to Steve, by saying but unemployment today is worse than it was in the Great Financial Crisis and worse than it was in any CCAR or DFAST test, and you've tacked onto that shutting down small businesses in the U.S. So we'll have to see how long that goes.

但在我把它交給史蒂夫之前，我要結束語是，今天的失業率比金融危機時期更嚴重，比任何 CCAR 或 DFAST 測試都更糟糕，而且你已經補充了這一點美國的小企業倒閉，所以我們得看看這種情況會持續多久。

Yes.

是的。

So let me answer the last part of the question.

那麼讓我回答問題的最後一部分。

Is there a regret to be in lending?

貸款有遺憾嗎？

And the answer is no.

答案是否定的。

I don't think you could be in a payments business without providing a wide range of services.

我認為如果不提供廣泛的服務就不可能從事支付業務。

And so I think our strategy of lending to our customers and understanding who we're lending to, I think that will play out for us well during this pandemic.

因此，我認為我們向客戶提供貸款並了解我們向誰提供貸款的策略，我認為這將在這場大流行期間對我們產生良好的效果。

I think the other thing is what's important to note is that you go back a couple of years, we really started to even invest even more heavily in our credit capabilities.

我認為另一件事值得注意的是，幾年前，我們確實開始加大對信貸能力的投資。

And so the difference between 2009 and today is a chasm.

因此，2009 年和今天之間的差異是巨大的。

I mean we're not even the same company as it relates to it.

我的意思是我們甚至不是同一家公司。

And when I think about what we've done from an external monitoring perspective, how we do modeling and risk assessment, whether it's machine learning and how we do more through-the-cycle evaluation, just our overall customer evaluation, our ability to flex up and down spend and lend capacity, the way we risk price and our credit and collections capability are so much better, including our hardship programs.

當我從外部監控的角度思考我們所做的事情時，我們如何進行建模和風險評估，是否是機器學習以及我們如何進行更多的全週期評估，只是我們的整體客戶評估，我們靈活應變的能力上下支出和貸款能力、我們承擔價格風險的方式以及我們的信貸和收款能力都好多了，包括我們的困難計劃。

I mean we had no hardship programs through the Great Financial Crisis, and now we roll out the CPR program in a matter of weeks.

我的意思是，我們在金融危機期間沒有製定任何困難計劃，現在我們在幾週內推出了心肺復蘇計劃。

We have other programs that are coming out in addition to our traditional hardship programs, which, by the way, were not traditional in 2009.

除了傳統的困難計劃外，我們還推出了其他計劃，順便說一下，這些計劃在 2009 年並不是傳統的。

I think the key thing as we move forward through this cycle will be our constant evaluation of our customers, our constant ability to modify the spend and lend that we have and our credit and collections capabilities and our ability to be able to talk to our customers, understand their situations and really work with them so that those customers that have the potential to be good customers when this is over, we ensure that we were there for them.

我認為，我們在這個週期中前進的關鍵是我們對客戶的不斷評估，我們不斷修改支出和貸款的能力，我們的信貸和收款能力以及我們與客戶交談的能力，了解他們的情況並真正與他們合作，以便那些在這一切結束後有潛力成為好客戶的客戶，我們確保我們在他們身邊。

So I think I don't regret sort of expanding our lending at all.

所以我認為我一點也不後悔擴大貸款。

And I think we are much better positioned, much, much better positioned than we were in 2009 and much better positioned than we were just 2 years ago.

我認為我們的定位比 2009 年好得多，比 2 年前好得多。

Our next question will be from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的瑞安·納什。

Maybe just a follow-up on the last question.

也許只是最後一個問題的後續。

So you talked about 88% of customers being prime, super-prime.

所以你談到 88% 的客戶是優質、超優質的。

But Jeff, you also mentioned that unemployment is higher than where we were in the financial crisis.

但是傑夫，你也提到失業率比金融危機時還要高。

So I guess do you have any visibility on where job loss is across your customer base, how that plays into your loss forecasting?

所以我想您是否了解您的客戶群中失業的情況，這對您的損失預測有何影響？

And I guess, broadly speaking, just how do we think about the relationship between job losses and unemployment across your customer base?

我想，從廣義上講，我們如何看待整個客戶群中失業和失業之間的關係？

Well, I think we've said for a while that certainly, general levels of unemployment, while it's just one of many, many, many factors that influences our ultimate credit losses, is probably the single most important factor.

好吧，我想我們已經說過一段時間了，總體失業率雖然只是影響我們最終信貸損失的眾多因素之一，但可能是最重要的因素。

I think your question also goes to, though, when we look at our consumer customer base, we would believe that the unemployment levels amongst our customers are well below the general levels of unemployment when you think about who's gotten laid off.

不過，我認為你的問題也在於，當我們審視我們的消費者客戶群時，我們會相信，當你考慮誰被解僱時，我們客戶的失業率遠低於總體失業率。

When you look at small business, we talked earlier about the range of actual card members we have who are small businesses.

當您關注小型企業時，我們之前討論過我們擁有的小型企業實際持卡會員的範圍。

And they're in lots of different industries, but you have probably a more representative sample amongst our card member base because we cut across all industries.

他們分佈在許多不同的行業，但我們的持卡會員群體中可能有更具代表性的樣本，因為我們跨越所有行業。

And if a small business gets shut down, that's a tough thing in the short run for them.

如果一家小企業被關閉，從短期來看這對他們來說是一件艱難的事情。

So we'll have to see how this plays out, but I think I'm going to go back to where Steve kind of finished his last answer.

所以我們必須看看結果如何，但我想我要回到史蒂夫完成他最後一個答案的地方。

We've built tremendously stronger risk management capabilities over the last decade.

在過去十年中，我們建立了極其強大的風險管理能力。

We have taken many steps in the last couple of years to tighten up our risk management practices.

過去幾年，我們採取了許多措施來加強我們的風險管理實踐。

And we go into this, I would remind you, with best-in-class credit metrics.

我想提醒你，我們會用一流的信用指標來探討這個問題。

We think we have best-in-class capabilities, and we think we have a customer base, both consumer and small business, that absolutely is more premium oriented that should help us, depending on whatever the outcome is, here economically.

我們認為我們擁有一流的能力，我們認為我們擁有消費者和小型企業的客戶群，這絕對是更注重高端的客戶群，無論結果如何，這都應該在經濟上對我們有所幫助。

Our next question will come through Craig Maurer with Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題將由 Autonomous 的 Craig Maurer 提出。

So 2 questions.

所以有2個問題。

I was hoping you could update us on your U.S. regional exposures.

我希望您能向我們介紹您在美國地區的最新情況。

And secondly, in what I'm sure have been extensive conversations with Ed Bastian and others, can you provide a little bit of thought around how you expect travel to reemerge in terms of cross-border versus domestic?

其次，我確信在與埃德·巴斯蒂安（Ed Bastian）和其他人進行的廣泛對話中，您能否就您期望跨境旅行與國內旅行如何重新出現提供一些想法？

One of the biggest debates we currently have with investors is the pace at which cross-border travel can resume.

目前我們與投資者最大的爭論之一是跨境旅行恢復的速度。

Well, let me...

好吧，讓我...

Go ahead, Jeff.

繼續吧，傑夫。

Quickly hit the regional one, Steve, and then you can talk about travel because the regional answer, Craig, is pretty short, which is, I think, as you would expect, where our heavy concentrations of our premium-oriented card member base is, well, places like California, the Northeast, Texas.

史蒂夫，請快速回答地區問題，然後您可以談論旅行，因為克雷格，地區問題的答案非常簡短，我認為，正如您所期望的那樣，我們的高端卡會員基礎集中在哪裡，嗯，像加利福尼亞州、東北部、德克薩斯州這樣的地方。

All places that have been fairly significantly hit within the U.S.,

美國境內所有受到相當嚴重打擊的地方，

When you go outside the U.S., particularly in the big urban areas, the Londons, the Paris, the Tokyos.

當你去美國境外時，特別是在大城市地區，倫敦、巴黎、東京。

So I'd say we are right in the mainstream of the COVID-19 challenge when it comes regionally.

因此，我想說，當涉及到區域性的 COVID-19 挑戰時，我們正處於主流地位。

We don't particularly see any differences, though, when we look across all those regions and countries in terms of credit performance or volume performance.

不過，當我們審視所有這些地區和國家的信用表現或銷量表現時，我們並沒有看到任何特別的差異。

It's remarkably similar globally, I would say.

我想說，全球範圍內的情況都非常相似。

Yes.

是的。

So look, I talk to Ed probably once a week.

所以看，我大概每周和埃德聊一次。

Not only are we good partners, but we're good friends as well.

我們不僅是好夥伴，而且還是好朋友。

And I think he would tell you that you will see more emergence of domestic travel before you see cross-border.

我想他會告訴你，在看到跨境旅行之前，你會看到更多國內旅行的出現。

And the reason you will see that is I think look, I mean, how will countries open up their borders to inbound flights, number one.

你會看到這一點的原因是，我認為，我的意思是，各國將如何向入境航班開放邊境，這是第一。

And how will the psychology work from a consumer perspective?

從消費者的角度來看，心理學將如何發揮作用？

I think there'll be a pent-up demand to do something in the summertime, in September, but I think a lot of U.S. consumers will probably do that in the United States, may do that in the islands.

我認為在夏季、九月份會有被壓抑的需求去做某事，但我認為很多美國消費者可能會在美國、在島嶼上這樣做。

So I think travel will emerge more domestically first than it will internationally.

因此，我認為旅遊業將首先在國內出現，而不是在國際上出現。

Having said that, I talked to Willie Walsh a couple of weeks ago and -- at BA and their flights to China are going back and forth and relatively full as those markets reopen as well.

話雖如此，幾週前我與威利·沃爾什（Willie Walsh）交談過，在英國航空，隨著這些市場重新開放，他們飛往中國的航班正在往返，並且相對較滿。

So I think it's going to be -- it'll be interesting.

所以我認為這會很有趣。

But I think what is going to make the difference here is how safe you make your airline and how safe you make the travel experience.

但我認為，最重要的是你讓你的航空公司變得多麼安全，以及你讓旅行體驗變得多麼安全。

And certainly, we will work with Ed and our other partners to do our part to help that whether it's from a boarding process, and he'll take care of once you're on a plane, they do a fantastic job.

當然，我們將與埃德和我們的其他合作夥伴合作，盡我們的一份力量來提供幫助，無論是在登機過程中，還是在您登機後他都會照顧您，他們做得非常出色。

And he and his team are thinking about those things, and I'm sure they will come up with a really high-quality and premium product as they always do.

他和他的團隊正在考慮這些事情，我相信他們會像往常一樣推出真正高質量和優質的產品。

So -- but I do believe domestic will emerge more than cross-border, and I think it will take more time get back to cross-border travel, that would be my sense.

所以，但我確實相信國內旅行將比跨境旅行更多，而且我認為需要更多時間才能回到跨境旅行，這是我的感覺。

And I think that's obviously a better question for Ed and the other airline executives, but we do have a sort of a dog in this fight as well.

我認為這對於埃德和其他航空公司高管來說顯然是一個更好的問題，但我們在這場鬥爭中也確實有一條狗。

So -- but I think that's what will happen, Craig.

所以——但我認為這就是將會發生的事情，克雷格。

With that, we will bring the call to an end.

至此，我們將結束通話。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Thank you again for joining today's call, and thank you for your continued interest in American Express.

再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議，並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。

The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions.

IR 團隊將隨時解答任何後續問題。

Operator, back to you.

接線員，回到您身邊。

Ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be made available for digitized replay beginning at 2 p.m.

女士們先生們，本次會議將於下午 2 點開始提供數字化重播。

Eastern Time today and running until April 30 at midnight Eastern Time.

東部時間今天持續到東部時間 4 月 30 日午夜。

You can access the AT&T Teleconference Replay System by dialing toll-free (866) 207-1041 and entering the replay access code 2060183.

您可以通過撥打免費電話 (866) 207-1041 並輸入重播訪問代碼 2060183 來訪問 AT&T 電話會議重播系統。

You may also dial 1 (402) 970-0847 with the access code 2060183.

您也可以撥打 1 (402) 970-0847，接入碼為 2060183。

That will conclude our conference call for today.

我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive Teleconference Services.

感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 行政電話會議服務。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。