美國運通 (AXP) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the American Express Q3 2019 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加美國運通 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Rosie Perez.

現在我想將會議交給我們的房東、投資者關係主管 Rosie Perez 女士。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Allen, and thank you all for joining today's call.

謝謝艾倫，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

As a reminder before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance.

在開始之前提醒一下，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務表現的前瞻性陳述。

These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些是基於管理層目前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

可能導致實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異的因素包含在今天的幻燈片和我們向 SEC 提交的報告中。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的討論也包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed.

可比較的公認會計準則財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。

All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We'll begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results.

今天我們將由董事長兼執行長 Steve Squeri 開始，他將首先介紹公司的進展和成果。

And then Jeff Campbell, CFO, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance.

然後財務長 Jeff Campbell 將對我們的財務業績進行更詳細的審查。

After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Jeff.

之後，我們將與史蒂夫和傑夫進行有關結果的問答環節。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

那麼，讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Rosie.

謝謝，羅西。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。

As you saw in our release earlier today, our third quarter results are a continuation of the consistent steady performance we've been delivering over the last few years.

正如您在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們第三季度的業績是我們過去幾年來一直保持穩定業績的延續。

We had strong FX-adjusted revenue growth of 9% in the quarter, and our EPS of $2.08 was 11% higher than last year.

本季經匯率調整後的營收成長了 9%，每股收益為 2.08 美元，比去年成長了 11%。

The consistently high levels of revenue growth we're delivering is the result of the focused approach we've taken in executing our strategy and the strength of our differentiated business model.

我們實現的持續高水準收入成長是我們在執行策略時採取的集中方法和差異化業務模式優勢的結果。

This was the ninth straight quarter where FX-adjusted revenue growth was 8% or higher.

這是連續第九個季度經匯率調整後的營收成長達到 8% 或更高。

I'm especially pleased that our revenue growth continues to be driven by a well-balanced mix of spend, loans and fees.

我特別高興的是，我們的收入成長繼續由支出、貸款和費用的均衡組合所推動。

Card fee revenues were particularly strong, growing 19% and exceeding $1 billion this quarter for the first time.

卡費營收尤其強勁，本季成長 19%，首次超過 10 億美元。

Nearly 70% of the cards we've acquired this year are fee-based products, providing us recurring subscription-like revenues.

我們今年收購的卡片中有近 70% 是收費產品，為我們提供了類似訂閱的經常性收入。

The trends we saw in the business remain consistent with an economy that continues to expand, albeit at a more modest pace than last year.

我們在業務中看到的趨勢與持續擴張的經濟保持一致，儘管成長比去年更為溫和。

Our FX-adjusted proprietary billings grew 7% led by strong growth in our U.S. and international consumer businesses.

在我們的美國和國際消費者業務強勁成長的帶動下，我們的外匯調整後自營業務收入成長了 7%。

We continued to deliver healthy loan growth, and our credit performance remained at industry-leading levels, in fact, better than the expectations we had at the beginning of the year.

我們的貸款持續保持健康成長，信貸表現維持在業界領先水平，甚至優於年初的預期。

So as you can see, even with some uncertainty in the global economic and political environment, our strategy of investing in share, scale and relevance is enabling us to deliver steady, solid results.

正如您所看到的，即使全球經濟和政治環境存在一些不確定性，我們對份額、規模和相關性的投資策略也使我們能夠取得穩定、堅實的績效。

With that in mind, I'd like to discuss our progress on the 3 company-wide initiatives I laid out at Investor Day.

考慮到這一點，我想討論一下我在投資者日提出的 3 項全公司舉措的進展。

As a reminder, these cut across all of our strategic imperatives.

提醒一下，這些貫穿了我們所有的戰略要務。

They are focusing on our customer as a platform for growth, expanding and leveraging our network of strategic partners and prioritizing our investments in international to drive growth.

他們專注於將我們的客戶作為成長平台，擴大和利用我們的策略合作夥伴網絡，並優先考慮我們在國際上的投資以推動成長。

Let's start with customers as a platform for growth.

讓我們從客戶作為成長平台開始。

Our global diverse customer base has become a major source of growth for us.

我們的全球多元化客戶群已成為我們成長的主要來源。

One of the ways we're deepening relationships with existing customers is through the disciplined strategic approach we've taken to continuously refresh our products.

我們深化與現有客戶關係的方法之一是透過嚴格的策略方法不斷更新我們的產品。

These refreshers are not just cosmetic changes.

這些更新不僅僅是表面上的改變。

We're redefining membership by adding innovative, experiential and rational value that our customers respond well to, and we're pricing for that additional value.

我們正在透過增加客戶反應良好的創新、體驗和理性價值來重新定義會員資格，並且我們正在為這些附加價值定價。

In the third quarter, we continued the refresh of our Platinum Card portfolio across several international markets, and we're following a similar playbook with our Gold Cards.

第三季度，我們繼續在多個國際市場更新白金卡產品組合，我們的金卡也遵循類似的策略。

Now we're updating our iconic Green Card.

現在我們正在更新我們標誌性的綠卡。

A few weeks ago, we introduced a new Ocean Plastic design.

幾週前，我們推出了新的海洋塑膠設計。

And later this month, we'll announce an array of changes to the product, including new benefits, broader payment flexibility and a digital focus.

本月晚些時候，我們將宣布一系列產品變更，包括新的福利、更廣泛的支付彈性和數位重點。

And just yesterday, we announced the major refresh of our Corporate Card program, which includes a number of new features, including new or enhanced benefits with Uber; Hilton; and CLEAR, which is the biometric identification system that expedites the airport security process.

就在昨天，我們宣布對公司卡計劃進行重大更新，其中包括許多新功能，包括 Uber 的新優惠或增強優惠；希爾頓； CLEAR 是一種生物辨識系統，可加快機場安檢流程。

As part of that announcement, we introduced an extension of our Corporate Card program designed to meet the needs of startups with features that include corporate liability and dynamic spending capacity.

作為公告的一部分，我們推出了公司卡計畫的擴展，旨在滿足新創公司的需求，其功能包括企業責任和動態支出能力。

As I've said on prior occasions, we typically see a significant increase in spending when our customers add an additional Amex product to their wallets.

正如我之前所說的，當我們的客戶在錢包中添加額外的美國運通產品時，我們通常會看到支出顯著增加。

And our Corporate Card members represent a great opportunity here.

我們的公司卡會員在這裡提供了絕佳的機會。

For many of our customers, the Corporate Card is their first American Express product.

對我們的許多客戶來說，公司卡是他們的第一個美國運通產品。

To encourage them to add a personal card, we're creating ways that provide benefits for carrying both such as a new program that offers an incentive for Corporate Card Members to obtain one of our select Consumer Cards.

為了鼓勵他們添加個人卡，我們正在創建為攜帶這兩種卡提供福利的方法，例如一項新計劃，旨在激勵公司卡會員獲得我們精選的一張消費卡。

These initiatives are proving to be a terrific platform for growth.

事實證明，這些措施是一個極好的成長平台。

We're seeing a lift in spending and engagement on our refreshed products.

我們看到更新產品的支出和參與度有所提高。

Over 60% of our total loan growth is coming from existing card members, and we're earning a steady stream of revenues as more customers move to fee-based products, which are priced to the additional value we're delivering.

我們總貸款成長的 60% 以上來自現有的持卡會員，隨著越來越多的客戶轉向收費產品，我們正在賺取穩定的收入，這些產品的定價取決於我們提供的附加價值。

Our customers have also become one of the best and most efficient ways to bring new card members into the franchise.

我們的客戶也成為將新卡會員引入特許經營的最佳、最有效的方式之一。

Through Our Member Get Member referral program, we've acquired over 250,000 new customers this year so far.

透過我們的「會員獲取會員」推薦計劃，今年到目前為止，我們已經獲得了超過 250,000 名新客戶。

In addition, successful referrals have increased 35% compared to last year's third quarter.

此外，與去年第三季相比，成功推薦增加了 35%。

Turning to partnerships.

轉向夥伴關係。

The third quarter continue to demonstrate the benefits of our powerful network of partners, who help us deliver enhanced value across the enterprise.

第三季繼續展示我們強大的合作夥伴網路的優勢，他們幫助我們在整個企業內提供更高的價值。

As I've said before, partnerships are essential to each of our strategic imperatives, and they take many forms: from the over 50 co-brand relationships we have around the world, to our recent digital partnerships, to expanding our merchant network.

正如我之前所說，合作夥伴關係對於我們的每項策略要務都至關重要，並且有多種形式：從我們在世界各地擁有的50 多個聯名品牌關係，到我們最近的數位合作關係，再到擴大我們的商業網絡。

When we talk about partnerships, we have to start with Delta, our largest, deepest and longest-running relationship.

當我們談論合作關係時，我們必須從達美航空開始，這是我們最大、最深入、持續時間最長的合作關係。

At the end of September, we announced 7 refreshed Delta SkyMiles co-brand cards as part of our renewed 11-year agreement with the airline.

9 月底，我們宣布推出 7 張更新的達美「飛凡哩程常客計畫」聯名卡，作為我們與達美航空續簽 11 年協議的一部分。

The new cards, which will be available in January in the U.S., will feature a range of customized travel benefits for both consumers and small business card members.

新卡將於一月在美國上市，將為消費者和小型商務卡會員提供一系列客製化旅遊優惠。

Also in the third quarter, we launched a new Small Business Credit Card in the U.K. with British Airways and one in Singapore with Singapore Airlines.

同樣在第三季度，我們在英國與英國航空合作推出了新的小型企業信用卡，在新加坡與新加坡航空合作推出了新的小型企業信用卡。

And we announced a -- we announced refreshed Consumer Cards in Canada with AIR MILES and Scotiabank.

我們宣布了——我們宣佈在加拿大推出透過 AIR MILES 和豐業銀行更新的消費卡。

In addition to co-brands, we've been expanding our digital partnerships.

除了聯合品牌之外，我們也一直在擴大我們的數位合作夥伴關係。

Earlier this week, we announced 2 new offerings with PayPal and Venmo for U.S. Consumer Card members.

本週早些時候，我們宣布與 PayPal 和 Venmo 合作為美國消費者卡會員提供 2 項新服務。

First is the ability to pay for purchases made through PayPal with membership rewards points, and we're also introducing split-the-bill functionality within the Amex mobile app.

首先是能夠使用會員獎勵積分透過 PayPal 支付購買費用，我們也在 Amex 行動應用程式中引入了分攤帳單功能。

On the merchant side, with the help of our OptBlue partnerships, we remain on track to achieve virtual parity coverage in the U.S. by the end of the year.

在商家方面，在 OptBlue 合作夥伴的幫助下，我們預計在今年年底前在美國實現虛擬平價覆蓋。

In international, our strategy of selectively increasing our investments to drive share, scale and relevance through a country-by-country approach is delivering strong results.

在國際上，我們透過逐個國家的方法選擇性地增加投資以提高份額、規模和相關性的策略正在取得強勁成果。

Despite political and economic uncertainty in some regions, international remains the highest growth area of our business.

儘管某些地區的政治和經濟存在不確定性，但國際市場仍然是我們業務成長最快的領域。

Third quarter results showed continued strong growth across both consumer and small business segments driven by results on our top strategic countries, where we've allocated incremental investments.

第三季業績顯示，在我們分配增量投資的頂級策略國家表現的推動下，消費者和小型企業領域持續強勁成長。

Since the beginning of the year, we've launched 18 new or refreshed proprietary cards, 3 co-brand cards and 30 network cards across international.

自今年年初以來，我們已在全球推出了 18 款全新或更新的專有卡、3 款聯名卡和 30 款網卡。

As a result, we're taking share and generating strong billings growth in the -- in most of our proprietary countries with overall FX-adjusted consumer proprietary billings up 14% in the quarter and FX-adjusted SME billings up 18%.

因此，我們在大多數自營國家/地區取得了份額並實現了強勁的賬單增長，本季度經匯率調整後的消費者自營賬單整體增長了14%，經匯率調整後的中小企業賬單增長了18%。

And finally, we're making good progress on expanding merchant coverage, which is key to our overall international growth strategy.

最後，我們在擴大商戶覆蓋範圍方面取得了良好進展，這是我們整體國際成長策略的關鍵。

As you can see, we've made a lot of progress in each of our 3 priority areas since March, and there's more to come.

正如您所看到的，自 3 月以來，我們在 3 個優先領域中的每一個領域都取得了很大進展，而且還會有更多進展。

In summary, I feel very good about our performance in the quarter and year-to-date.

總而言之，我對我們本季和年初至今的表現感到非常滿意。

As we look ahead, I expect the consistent trends we've seen to continue into Q4, translating into revenue growth of 8% to 10% in the quarter.

展望未來，我預計我們所看到的一致趨勢將持續到第四季度，這意味著該季度的營收將成長 8% 至 10%。

And we're reaffirming our full year guidance of adjusted EPS between $7.85 and $8.35.

我們重申調整後每股收益在 7.85 美元至 8.35 美元之間的全年指引。

Our performance reinforces my confidence in our ability in today's environment to sustain high levels of revenue growth and consistent double-digit EPS growth, which creates value for our shareholders.

我們的業績增強了我對我們在當今環境下維持高水準收入成長和持續兩位數每股收益成長的能力的信心，這為我們的股東創造了價值。

I'm excited about the opportunities that lie ahead and look forward to updating you on our progress.

我對未來的機會感到興奮，並期待向您通報我們的最新進展。

Now let me turn it over to Jeff.

現在讓我把它交給傑夫。

Well, thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

好吧，謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。

It's good to be here today to talk about yet another solid quarter of steady and consistent performance.

很高興今天能在這裡談論又一個穩定一致的業績季度。

Let's get right to our summary financials on Slide 3. Third quarter revenues of $11 billion grew 9% on an FX-adjusted basis with this growth driven again by a well-balanced mix of spend, lend and fee revenues.

讓我們直接看投影片 3 上的財務摘要。第三季營收為 110 億美元，經匯率調整後成長了 9%，這一成長再次受到支出、貸款和費用收入的均衡組合的推動。

You continue to see a spread between our reported revenue growth of 8% and FX-adjusted revenue growth of 9%.

您將繼續看到我們報告的 8% 收入成長與 9% 的外匯調整收入成長之間的差距。

Although the U.S. dollar has strengthened recently, the spread between our reported and FX-adjusted revenue growth has lessened slightly relative to Q2.

儘管美元最近走強，但我們報告的收入成長與經過外匯調整的收入成長之間的差距相對於第二季度略有縮小。

As you recall, the year-over-year strengthening of the U.S. dollar began in the third quarter of last year.

如你所知，美元逐年走強是從去年第三季開始的。

Assuming the dollar stays roughly where it is today, you should see reported and FX-adjusted revenue growth levels more similar to each other in the fourth quarter 2019.

假設美元大致保持在今天的水平，您應該會看到 2019 年第四季度報告的收入增長水平和匯率調整後的收入增長水平更加相似。

Our strong top line revenue performance drove net income of $1.8 billion, up 6% from a year ago.

我們強勁的營收表現推動淨利潤達到 18 億美元，比去年同期成長 6%。

And earnings per share was $2.08, representing EPS growth of 11% in the third quarter.

每股收益為2.08美元，第三季每股收益成長11%。

This EPS growth was supported by the 4% reduction in our share count, enabled by our continued prudent management of the capital-generating capabilities of our business model as we returned $5.5 billion in excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the last 4 quarters.

每股盈餘的成長得益於我們的股份數量減少了4%，而這得益於我們對業務模式的資本生成能力的持續審慎管理，我們在過去4 年透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了55 億美元的超額資本。宿舍。

Turning now to the details of our performance.

現在轉向我們表演的細節。

I'll start with billed business, which you see several views of on Slides 4 through 6.

我將從計費業務開始，您可以在投影片 4 到 6 中看到多個檢視。

Starting on Slide 4. Our FX-adjusted total billings growth for the third quarter was 6%.

從投影片 4 開始。經過匯率調整後，我們第三季的總帳單成長率為 6%。

We think it is important though to continue to break out the billings growth between our proprietary and network businesses due to the differing trends as we exit our network business in Europe and Australia.

我們認為，由於我們退出歐洲和澳洲的網路業務時趨勢不同，繼續突破我們的專有業務和網路業務之間的帳單成長很重要。

We expect to fully lap the billings impact from these exits in 2020.

我們預計將在 2020 年完全消除這些退出對帳單的影響。

Our proprietary business, which makes up 86% of our total billings and drives most of our financial results, was up 7% in the third quarter on an FX-adjusted basis.

我們的自營業務占我們總營業額的 86%，並推動了我們大部分的財務業績，經匯率調整後，第三季度增長了 7%。

The remaining 14% of our overall billings, which comes from our network business, GNS, was down 2% in the third quarter on an FX-adjusted basis.

我們整體帳單的其餘 14% 來自我們的網路業務 GNS，經匯率調整後，第三季下降了 2%。

Turning to our proprietary billed business growth on Slide 5. The trends this quarter continue to be consistent with the economic tone.

轉向投影片 5 上我們的自營計費業務成長。本季的趨勢持續與經濟基調一致。

The U.S. Consumer continues to show solid growth with even some modest acceleration as we have gone through 2019.

2019 年，美國消費者持續呈現穩健成長，甚至略有加速。

The International Consumer shows even higher levels of growth, and our commercial customers are lapping a particularly strong 2018 with spending trends that have diverged a bit from the consumer segment.

國際消費者表現出更高水準的成長，我們的商業客戶在 2018 年表現尤為強勁，其支出趨勢與消費者領域略有不同。

You see this as you turn to Slide 6. We first spoke last quarter about potential signs of caution in commercial spending trends relative to the strong and steady growth we see in consumer.

當你翻到幻燈片 6 時，你會看到這一點。我們上個季度首次談到了商業支出趨勢相對於我們看到的消費者強勁而穩定增長的潛在謹慎跡象。

Over the last few months, the headlines in macro data would suggest that these trends continue, particularly among the larger corporations within our customer base.

在過去的幾個月裡，宏觀數據的頭條新聞表明這些趨勢仍在繼續，特別是在我們客戶群中的大型企業中。

We see these dynamics in our large and global Corporate Card trends, where we had a 1% decline in billed business on an FX-adjusted basis in the third quarter.

我們在大型和全球公司卡趨勢中看到了這些動態，第三季按匯率調整後的計費業務下降了 1%。

So adjusting for the reduction in spending from just 2 large customers where we saw some client-specific decreases, the growth rate would have been a bit above 1% this quarter.

因此，根據 2 個大客戶的支出減少（我們看到一些特定客戶的支出減少）進行調整，本季的成長率將略高於 1%。

In contrast, spending from our U.S. small and midsized enterprise Card Members, or SMEs, grew a solid 6% in the third quarter with importantly, relatively stable growth throughout the 3 months of the quarter.

相比之下，我們的美國中小型企業卡會員 (SME) 的支出在第三季度穩健增長了 6%，重要的是，在整個季度的 3 個月內增長相對穩定。

We continue to feel great about the long-term opportunities with both of these customer types.

我們仍然對這兩種客戶類型的長期機會感到非常高興。

And as Steve highlighted a few minutes ago, we are making investments that leverage our strong leadership position and differentiated business models take advantage of these opportunities.

正如史蒂夫幾分鐘前所強調的那樣，我們正在利用我們強大的領導地位和差異化的商業模式進行投資，以利用這些機會。

International SME remains our highest-growing customer type with 18% FX-adjusted billings growth in the third quarter.

國際中小企業仍然是我們成長最快的客戶類型，第三季經匯率調整後的帳單成長了 18%。

Given our focus on this segment and the low penetration we have in the top countries where we offer international small business products, we believe we have a long runway to sustain this strong growth.

鑑於我們對這一細分市場的關注以及我們在提供國際小型企業產品的頂級國家/地區的滲透率較低，我們相信我們還有很長的路要走，以維持這種強勁的成長。

Moving to U.S. Consumer, which made up 33% of the company's billings in the third quarter, billings were up 8% and taking the number out of decimal, actually a bit stronger than Q1 and Q2.

美國消費者業務在第三季占公司營業額的 33%，營業額成長了 8%（小數點後的數字），實際上比第一季和第二季強一些。

This growth reflects continued strong acquisition performance and solid underlying spend growth from existing customers.

這一成長反映了持續強勁的收購業績和現有客戶的基礎支出成長。

These trends also highlight the continued strength of the consumer in the U.S.

這些趨勢也凸顯了美國消費者的持續強勁。

Moving to the right.

向右移動。

International Consumer growth remained in the teens at 14% on an FX-adjusted basis.

經匯率調整後，國際消費者成長率仍維持在 14% 左右。

As we mentioned earlier, we continue to have widespread growth in our proprietary business across key markets despite the mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.

正如我們之前提到的，儘管宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境複雜，我們在主要市場的自營業務繼續廣泛成長。

While growth in Australia and Mexico moderated to the high single digits this quarter, we continued to see strong growth of 19% in both the U.K. and Japan as well as double-digit growth in our top markets across the EU, all on a FX-adjusted basis.

雖然本季澳洲和墨西哥的成長放緩至高個位數，但我們繼續看到英國和日本 19% 的強勁成長，以及歐盟頂級市場的兩位數成長，所有這些都得益於外匯 -調整的基礎。

Finally, on the far right, as I mentioned earlier, Global Network Services was down 2% on an FX-adjusted basis driven by the impacts of regulation in the European Union and Australia, where we are in the process of exiting our network business.

最後，正如我之前提到的，在最右邊，由於歐盟和澳洲監管的影響，全球網路服務公司在匯率調整後下跌了 2%，我們正在退出這兩個國家的網路業務。

Although network billings are down in these regions, if you were to exclude the European Union and Australia, the remaining portion of GNS was up 3% on an FX-adjusted basis.

儘管這些地區的網路帳單有所下降，但如果排除歐盟和澳大利亞，則經匯率調整後，GNS 的其餘部分增加了 3%。

Overall then, we continue to feel good about the breadth of our billings growth and the opportunities we see across the range of geographies and the customer segments in which we operate.

總體而言，我們繼續對我們的帳單成長的廣度以及我們在我們經營的各個地區和客戶群中看到的機會感到滿意。

Turning next to loan performance.

接下來轉向貸款績效。

On Slide 7, total loan growth was 9% in the third quarter with over 60% of that growth, again, coming from our existing customers.

在投影片 7 中，第三季總貸款成長率為 9%，其中超過 60% 的成長再次來自我們的現有客戶。

We feel good about our lending strategy, which is focused on taking advantage of the unique opportunity we have to deepen our share of our existing customers' borrowing.

我們對我們的貸款策略感到滿意，該策略的重點是利用我們擁有的獨特機會來加深我們在現有客戶借貸中的份額。

We believe we have a long runway to continue this strategy.

我們相信，繼續這項策略還有很長的路要走。

Moving to the right-hand side of Slide 7, net interest yield was 11.1% in the third quarter, up 30 basis points relative to the prior year, reflecting continued positive impacts from mix and pricing risk.

轉向投影片 7 的右側，第三季淨利息收益率為 11.1%，較去年同期上升 30 個基點，反映出組合和定價風險的持續正面影響。

We remain focused on optimizing our lending capabilities and pricing constructs, and we have seen lower loan balances on promotional offers as we have shifted towards more premium products.

我們仍然專注於優化我們的貸款能力和定價結構，隨著我們轉向更優質的產品，我們發現促銷優惠的貸款餘額有所下降。

The combination of loan growth and yield increases are contributing to the 12% growth in net interest income that we delivered this quarter.

貸款成長和收益率成長共同推動我們本季實現的淨利息收入成長 12%。

Slide 8 then shows the credit implications of our strategy.

然後投影片 8 顯示了我們策略的信貸影響。

As you can see, the trends on both write-off rates and delinquencies continued to be stable and benign, reflecting, in part, the low unemployment rate and relatively stable economy.

正如您所看到的，沖銷率和拖欠率的趨勢繼續保持穩定和良性，部分反映了低失業率和相對穩定的經濟。

We see these trends across both our consumer and commercial segments.

我們在消費者和商業領域都看到了這些趨勢。

The GCP net loss ratio remains lower than last year.

GCP淨虧損率仍低於去年。

And as you see on the tables that accompany our earnings release, both consumer and small business credit trends also remain steady.

正如您在我們的收益發布附帶的表格中看到的那樣，消費者和小型企業信貸趨勢也保持穩定。

These trends lead to the same conclusion we have reached in each quarter so far this year.

這些趨勢得出了我們今年迄今為止每個季度得出的相同結論。

We do not see anything in our portfolio that would suggest a significant change in the credit environment, both on the consumer and commercial side.

我們在我們的投資組合中沒有看到任何跡象表明消費者和商業方面的信貸環境發生重大變化。

In fact, all of these portfolios are performing much better than we expected at the beginning of the year.

事實上，所有這些投資組合的表現都比我們年初的預期要好得多。

This brings us to provision expense.

這給我們帶來了準備費用。

In the third quarter, provision expense growth was 8%, reflecting the greater stability in our credit trends that began in the second half of 2018.

第三季撥備費用成長 8%，反映出 2018 年下半年開始的信貸趨勢更加穩定。

Clearly, as we've gone through the year, credit performance for us as well as for others in the industry has been better than expected.

顯然，今年以來，我們以及業內其他公司的信用表現都比預期好。

That's what we saw again in the third quarter, and as a result, we now expect full year provision growth of around 10%.

這就是我們在第三季再次看到的情況，因此，我們現在預計全年撥備成長約為 10%。

While we are on the subject of provision though, let me take a few minutes to talk about CECL.

雖然我們正在討論條款的主題，但讓我花幾分鐘時間談談 CECL。

We are making good progress on our efforts to prepare for implementation on January 1, 2020.

我們為 2020 年 1 月 1 日實施做好準備的工作正在取得良好進展。

Consistent with our comments last quarter, based on our work so far, we estimate that if we implemented CECL today, our current total reserves of $2.8 billion would increase by roughly 25% to 40%.

與我們上季度的評論一致，根據我們迄今為止的工作，我們估計，如果我們今天實施 CECL，我們目前 28 億美元的總儲備將增加約 25% 至 40%。

This estimate includes a roughly 55% to 70% increase in lending card reserves, somewhat offset by a significantly lower charge card reserve, given the extremely short life of a charge receivable.

這項估計包括貸款卡準備金增加約 55% 至 70%，但考慮到應收帳款的壽命極短，借記卡準備金的大幅降低在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。

Stepping back, there were 3 important takeaways on CECL that I would like to leave you with.

退一步來說，我想向您介紹 CECL 的 3 個重要要點。

First, we believe that the capital impact of the onetime implementation increase in reserves will likely be very manageable, given our strong balance sheet, 30%-plus ROE and spend-centric model.

首先，我們認為，考慮到我們強大的資產負債表、超過 30% 的 ROE 和以支出為中心的模式，一次性增加準備金的資本影響可能是非常可控的。

Second, it is important to keep in mind that CECL will have an impact on our provision expense going forward.

其次，重要的是要記住，CECL 將對我們未來的撥備費用產生影響。

Although the ultimate impact will be heavily dependent on many factors, we will likely have higher provision expense under CECL relative to the current accounting methodology as we continue to grow our loan book.

儘管最終影響將在很大程度上取決於許多因素，但隨著我們繼續擴大貸款帳簿，相對於當前的會計方法，CECL 下的撥備費用可能會更高。

Since we are currently finalizing our CECL models and working on our 2020 plan, we'll provide more color on the expected 2020 impact from CECL on next quarter's call.

由於我們目前正在最終確定 CECL 模型並製定 2020 年計劃，因此我們將在下季度的電話會議上提供有關 CECL 對 2020 年預期影響的更多資訊。

Finally, CECL is nearly an accounting-driven acceleration of estimated losses.

最後，CECL 幾乎是會計驅動的估計損失加速。

There is no change to the underlying economics, our view of the risk profile or the ultimate expected losses in our portfolios.

基本經濟狀況、我們對風險狀況的看法或投資組合的最終預期損失並沒有改變。

Given this as well as our strategy of investing for growth, we do not intend to change our investment plans because of the impact CECL will have on provision expense growth in 2020.

鑑於這一點以及我們的成長投資策略，我們不打算改變我們的投資計劃，因為CECL將對2020年撥備費用成長產生影響。

Now let's get back to our results and turn to the strong revenue growth of 9% on an FX-adjusted basis that you see on Slide 10.

現在讓我們回到我們的結果，並轉向您在幻燈片 10 中看到的基於匯率調整的 9% 的強勁收入成長。

The consistent execution of our strategies and our focus on investing in share, scale and relevance has driven top line revenue growth of 8% or more for over 2 years.

我們對策略的一致執行以及對份額、規模和相關性的投資的重點推動了兩年多來收入增長 8% 或以上。

This consistent revenue performance has occurred in both the robust economic environment of 2018 and the somewhat slower growth environment of 2019.

這種穩定的營收表現既發生在 2018 年強勁的經濟環境中，也發生在 2019 年成長稍慢的環境中。

And despite the modest sequential deceleration in volume growth we saw this quarter, our revenue growth of 9.4% in the third quarter was relatively flat to the 9.6% growth we delivered last quarter.

儘管本季銷量成長略有放緩，但第三季 9.4% 的營收成長與上季 9.6% 的成長相對持平。

This revenue growth was, again, driven by broad-based growth across spend, lend and fee revenues as you can see on Slide 11.

正如您在幻燈片 11 中看到的那樣，這種收入成長再次受到支出、貸款和費用收入廣泛增長的推動。

And importantly, the portion of our revenue coming from spend and fee revenues remained at 80% in the third quarter, in line with those -- with both recent history and a much longer view of our history.

重要的是，第三季我們來自支出和費用收入的收入比例保持在 80%，與近期歷史和更長遠的歷史一致。

Discount revenue was up 6% on a reported basis and was up 7% on an FX-adjusted basis, which I'll come back to on the next slide.

根據報告，折扣收入成長了 6%，根據匯率調整後，折扣收入成長了 7%，我將在下一張投影片中討論這一點。

Net card fee growth accelerated to 19% and, as Steve said, surpassed $1 billion in the third quarter for the first time.

網路卡費用成長加速至 19%，正如 Steve 所說，第三季首次超過 10 億美元。

This is a financial outcome of the disciplined approach to product refreshment and our unique value propositions that Steve also talked about in his opening remarks.

這是嚴格的產品更新方法和我們獨特的價值主張的財務成果，史蒂夫在開場白中也談到了這一點。

We are really pleased by the confidence that our customers place in our value propositions when they choose to pay these subscription-like fees.

當客戶選擇支付這些類似訂閱的費用時，他們對我們的價值主張充滿信心，我們對此感到非常高興。

And as Steve mentioned earlier, but I think it bears repeating, we continue to see that the majority of our new card members, around 70% so far this year, are choosing our fee-based products as well.

正如史蒂夫之前提到的（但我認為值得重複），我們繼續看到我們的大多數新卡會員（今年迄今為止約 70%）也選擇了我們的收費產品。

Going forward, we feel good about our ability to maintain strong growth in these membership revenues, given the breadth of products that are driving this momentum across geographies and across customer segments.

展望未來，考慮到跨地區和跨客戶群推動這一勢頭的產品範圍廣泛，我們對保持這些會員收入強勁增長的能力感到滿意。

Net interest income grew at 12% in the third quarter driven by the growth in loans and net yield that I just mentioned a few moments ago.

在我剛才提到的貸款和淨收益率成長的推動下，第三季淨利息收入成長了12%。

So let's come back now to the largest component of our revenue, discount revenue, on Slide 12.

現在讓我們回到幻燈片 12 上我們收入的最大組成部分——折扣收入。

On the right, you see that discount revenue grew at 7% on an FX-adjusted basis, in line with the last 2 quarters, making this the eighth consecutive quarter with discount revenue growth above 6%.

在右側，您可以看到經匯率調整後折扣收入增長了 7%，與過去兩個季度一致，這使得折扣收入增長連續第八個季度超過 6%。

We see this as continued evidence that our strategy of focusing on driving discount revenue, not the average discount rate, is working.

我們認為這持續證明我們專注於推動折扣收入而不是平均折扣率的策略正在發揮作用。

Moving on now to the things we are investing in to drive our strong revenue growth.

現在轉向我們正在投資的事情，以推動我們強勁的收入成長。

Let's start with our customer engagement costs, which you can see on Slide 13 were $5 billion in the third quarter, up 11% versus last year.

讓我們從我們的客戶參與成本開始，您可以在投影片 13 上看到第三季的客戶參與成本為 50 億美元，比去年成長 11%。

Starting at the bottom.

從底部開始。

Marketing and business development costs were up 11% in the third quarter and were in line with Q2.

第三季行銷和業務開發成本成長 11%，與第二季持平。

Remember that this line has 2 components, our traditional marketing and promotion expenses and then payments we make to certain partners, primarily corporate clients, GNS partner banks and co-brand partners.

請記住，這條線有兩個組成部分：我們的傳統行銷和促銷費用，以及我們向某些合作夥伴（主要是企業客戶、GNS 合作銀行和聯合品牌合作夥伴）支付的款項。

Also remember that this is the second quarter where we are seeing the impact of our renewed agreement with Delta, which increased our marketing and business development costs by $200 million relative to our original outlook for the full year.

請記住，這是第二季度，我們看到了與達美航空續約協議的影響，該協議使我們的行銷和業務開發成本相對於我們最初的全年預期增加了 2 億美元。

Continuing on to rewards expense, you can see that it was up 9% relative to the prior year, a bit higher than our billing trends, given our evolving value propositions.

繼續討論獎勵支出，您可以看到，鑑於我們不斷變化的價值主張，與前一年相比，獎勵支出增加了 9%，略高於我們的計費趨勢。

Moving then to the top of the slide, Card Member Services costs were up 22% in the third quarter.

然後到投影片的頂部，卡片會員服務成本在第三季增加了 22%。

We continue to expect this line to be our fastest-growing expense category as it includes the cost of many components of our differentiated value propositions such as airport lounge access and other travel benefits, which we believe are difficult for others to replicate and help support the strong acquisition and engagement we are seeing on our fee-based products.

我們仍然預計該項目將成為我們成長最快的支出類別，因為它包括我們差異化價值主張的許多組成部分的成本，例如機場休息室使用權和其他旅行福利，我們認為其他人很難複製這些費用並幫助支持我們在收費產品上看到了強勁的收購和參與。

Moving on into operating expenses on Slide 14.

接下來討論投影片 14 上的營運費用。

We saw a 5% increase in the third quarter, consistent with our long track record of getting operating expense leverage by growing OpEx more slowly than revenues.

我們在第三季度看到了 5% 的成長，這與我們透過營運支出成長慢於收入成長來獲得營運支出槓桿的長期記錄是一致的。

I would offer 2 comments here.

我想在這裡提出兩則評論。

First, as I mentioned last quarter, some of the investments we are making to deliver continued strong revenue growth, growth in sales force, premium servicing, digital capabilities, these will cause us for this year to see more growth in this line than we have seen in recent years.

首先，正如我上季度提到的，我們正在進行的一些投資是為了實現持續強勁的收入成長、銷售隊伍的成長、優質服務、數位能力，這些將使我們今年在這一領域看到比以往更多的增長近年來所見。

Second, as a reminder, through our Amex Ventures group, we have a strategic investment portfolio of over 40 investments.

其次，提醒一下，透過我們的 Amex Ventures 團隊，我們擁有超過 40 項投資的策略性投資組合。

This quarter's OpEx included a net benefit of roughly $0.05 related to the impact of mark-to-market adjustments on our strategic investment portfolio, which is somewhat higher than the benefit we saw last year.

本季度的營運支出包括約 0.05 美元的淨收益，該淨收益與按市值調整對我們的策略投資組合的影響有關，這略高於我們去年看到的收益。

Altogether, I would just sum up by saying that we are confident that we have a long runway to continue to grow our operating expenses more slowly than our revenues.

總而言之，我想說的是，我們有信心，我們有很長的路要走，繼續以低於收入的速度成長我們的營運費用。

Turning to capital on Slide 15.

轉向投影片 15 上的資本。

Our CET1 ratio in the second quarter (sic) [third quarter] was 11%, at the top end of our 10% to 11% target range.

我們第二季（原文如此）[第三季]的 CET1 比率為 11%，處於我們 10% 至 11% 目標範圍的上限。

And we returned $1.8 billion of capital to our shareholders.

我們向股東返還了 18 億美元的資本。

As we've said, our primary focus is on maintaining our CET1 ratio within our 10% to 11% target range as the governor of our capital distribution plan.

正如我們所說，作為資本分配計劃的管理者，我們的主要重點是將 CET1 比率維持在 10% 至 11% 的目標範圍內。

We've historically been very focused on maintaining capital strength while aggressively returning excess capital to our shareholders, and we will continue with that philosophy going forward.

我們歷來非常注重維持資本實力，同時積極地將多餘資本回饋給股東，未來我們將繼續秉持這個理念。

So that brings us to our outlook, and then we'll open the call for your questions.

這就是我們的展望，然後我們將開始徵集您的問題。

With each quarter of this year, we've demonstrated consistent progress against our objectives of delivering high levels of revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth.

今年每個季度，我們都在實現高水準收入成長和兩位數每股收益成長的目標方面取得了持續進展。

Now looking ahead, given today's economic environment, we see a long runway to sustain this performance.

現在展望未來，考慮到當今的經濟環境，我們認為維持這一業績還有很長的路要走。

In the near term, give you a bit more color on the fourth quarter.

短期來看，第四季會給你更多的色彩。

We expect revenue growth to continue with the strong levels we have seen and to be within our 8% to 10% guidance range for the quarter.

我們預計營收成長將繼續保持我們所看到的強勁水平，並在我們本季 8% 至 10% 的指導範圍內。

And if FX rates stay where they are, the headwind from the strong dollar should lessen in the fourth quarter.

如果匯率不變，強勢美元帶來的阻力應該會在第四季減弱。

We expect the stability we have seen in our credit trends to continue with full year provision growth of around 10%.

我們預期信貸趨勢將保持穩定，全年撥備成長率將達到 10% 左右。

And given the consistent operating performance trends we have seen throughout the first 3 quarters of the year, we expect our Q4 EPS results will be very much in line with our year-to-date results, excluding the $0.05 mark-to-market benefit of our investment portfolio that we saw in the third quarter and, of course, any other contingencies that may occur in the fourth quarter, which would bring us to reaffirm our adjusted earnings guidance of $7.85 to $8.35 for the full year.

鑑於我們在今年前三個季度看到的一致的經營業績趨勢，我們預計第四季度的每股收益結果將與我們今年迄今的結果非常一致，不包括 0.05 美元的按市值計算的收益我們在第三季看到的投資組合，當然還有第四季可能發生的任何其他突發事件，這將使我們重申全年調整後的獲利指引為7.85 美元至8.35 美元。

In addition, we are working towards having a 2020 plan, showing high revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth off of the middle part of our 2019 EPS guidance range.

此外，我們正在努力製定 2020 年計劃，顯示高收入增長和兩位數的每股收益增長，超出 2019 年每股收益指導範圍的中間部分。

Of course, this assumes we do not see a material deterioration in the economic environment versus where we are today.

當然，這是假設我們沒有看到經濟環境與今天相比出現實質惡化。

And given my earlier comments around CECL, it does not factor in any potential impacts from CECL in 2020.

鑑於我之前對 CECL 的評論，它沒有考慮到 2020 年 CECL 的任何潛在影響。

To close, our year-to-date performance and expectations for the full year demonstrate consistent execution against our strategies as well as the financial growth algorithm I shared with you at our last Investor Day.

最後，我們今年迄今為止的業績和全年預期表明我們對我們的策略以及我在上一次投資者日與您分享的財務成長演算法的執行一致。

We remain focused on sustaining high levels of revenue growth and in today's environment, double-digit EPS growth.

我們仍然專注於維持高水準的收入成長，並在當今的環境下實現兩位數的每股盈餘成長。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Rosie.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給 Rosie。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

(Operator Instructions) And with that, the operator, we'll now open up the line for questions.

（接線員指示）接線員，我們現在將開放提問專線。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Craig Maurer from Autonomous Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Autonomous Research 的 Craig Maurer。

I had a question on net card fees that -- basically, what I'm trying to get at is you showed some acceleration in net card fee growth.

我有一個關於網卡費用的問題，基本上，我想了解的是網卡費用增長有所加速。

Cards in the U.S. -- basic cards-in-force has been largely range-bound throughout the year.

美國的信用卡－有效的基本信用卡全年基本處於區間波動狀態。

So can net card fees continue to accelerate if card remains somewhat flattish?

那麼，如果網卡費用維持平穩，網路卡費用還能繼續加速嗎？

And should card growth in the U.S. accelerate again?

美國的信用卡成長是否應該再次加速？

Or how should we think about that?

或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

Craig, as you recall, we tend to discourage people a little bit from looking at that gross cards-in-force number because what's really important here is the quality of the cards you have and the quality of the cards you're bringing in.

克雷格，正如您所記得的那樣，我們傾向於阻止人們查看有效卡牌總數，因為這裡真正重要的是您擁有的卡牌的質量以及您引入的卡牌的質量。

Both Steve and I talked about the fact that 70% of the new card members we're bringing in are on fee-based products.

史蒂夫和我都談到了這樣一個事實：我們引進的新卡會員中有 70% 使用的是收費產品。

We've talked for a couple quarters now about bringing in, in general, a more premium-oriented mix of Card Members.

總體而言，我們已經討論了幾個季度引入更高端的持卡會員組合。

And that cards-in-force number is also influenced by our periodic efforts, frankly, to go back and cancel some inactive card members.

坦白說，有效卡數也受到我們定期取消一些不活躍卡會員的影響。

So we feel tremendously strong about the breadth of the products that are driving card fee growth.

因此，我們對推動卡費成長的產品的廣度感到非常強烈。

I think there's a long runway to continue.

我認為還有很長的路要繼續。

Yes.

是的。

And I think the -- just to add one other point.

我想——只是補充一點。

I think the other thing that's really important is the recent strategy of consistently refreshing our products is critically important to not only growing card fees, but it's also what we've seen is we see an uptick in spending even from existing cardholders.

我認為另一件真正重要的事情是，最近不斷更新我們的產品的策略不僅對於增加卡費至關重要，而且我們所看到的是，我們甚至看到現有持卡人的支出也在增加。

So again, I think the number's a little bit deceptive because you've got a clean out, and you also have a switch.

再說一次，我認為這個數字有點欺騙性，因為你已經清理了，而且你也有一個開關。

You've got a lot of upgrades in there as well.

那裡也有很多升級。

So we feel really confident about the strategy we're on.

因此，我們對我們正在實施的策略非常有信心。

We'll next go to the line of Bob Napoli from William Blair.

接下來我們將轉到威廉布萊爾 (William Blair) 的鮑勃納波利 (Bob Napoli) 路線。

A question on your B2B payment strategy.

關於您的 B2B 支付策略的問題。

You acquired acompay during the quarter.

您在本季收購了 acompay。

You -- it does automated AP.

你——它會自動執行 AP。

You have a lot of different partnerships there.

那裡有很多不同的合作夥伴。

And so it's an area that massive market TAM that could move the needle, I would think, for American Express.

因此，我認為，對於美國運通來說，這是一個巨大的市場 TAM 可以推動發展的領域。

Can you update your thoughts on your investments in the B2B payment space and AP and AR automation and if that can move the needle materially for Amex over the long term?

您能否更新一下您對 B2B 支付領域以及 AP 和 AR 自動化投資的看法？從長遠來看，這是否能為 Amex 帶來實質推動？

Yes.

是的。

I think -- look, Bob, I think as we've said, and we said this at Investor Day as well, our belief this is a long-term opportunity.

我認為，鮑勃，我認為正如我們所說的，我們也在投資者日說過，我們相信這是一個長期的機會。

Having said that, we are -- we've entered into partnerships with people like Bill.com at the real small end of the market.

話雖如此，我們已經與像 Bill.com 這樣的公司在真正的小端市場建立了合作關係。

We've done MineralTree and WEX in sort of the midspace.

我們已經在中間空間完成了 MineralTree 和 WEX。

We've done Tradeshift.

我們已經完成了 Tradeshift。

We've done Ariba.

我們已經完成了 Ariba。

We have now an investment in ACON to help sort of automate those processes.

我們現在對 ACON 進行了投資，以幫助實現這些流程的自動化。

But one thing I will point out is while it is a long-term play, most of our spending in an SME segment today is B2B spending and that continues to grow.

但我要指出的一件事是，雖然這是一項長期投資，但我們今天在中小企業領域的大部分支出都是 B2B 支出，而且還在持續成長。

So we feel really confident about what we're doing.

所以我們對我們正在做的事情非常有信心。

But as I've said before, the integration into the procurement process, it's a tough integration and it takes time.

但正如我之前所說，整合到採購流程中是一個艱難的整合，需要時間。

And that's why we do these partnerships, that's why we make these investments and that's why we still believe it's a long-term play.

這就是我們建立這些合作關係的原因，這就是我們進行這些投資的原因，這就是為什麼我們仍然相信這是一項長期投資。

But we are seeing value just from a B2B perspective, especially in SME, where the majority of our spending is B2B, not T&E.

但我們僅從 B2B 角度看到了價值，尤其是在中小企業，我們的大部分支出是 B2B，而不是差旅娛樂。

Our next question, we'll go to the line of Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題是摩根大通的里克·肖恩 (Rick Shane)。

Just wanted to sort of delve into the divergence between acceleration of billed business on an account basis at the consumer level and deceleration on the commercial business.

只是想深入研究消費者層面上基於帳戶的計費業務加速與商業業務減速之間的差異。

Historically, has that provided any signal that we should be paying attention to?

從歷史上看，這是否提供了我們應該關注的任何訊號？

No.

不。

Not necessarily.

不必要。

I think if you look at the last recession, you would have seen sort of a reverse.

我認為如果你回顧上次的經濟衰退，你會看到某種逆轉。

You would have seen consumer coming down first and then commercial.

你會看到消費者先下降，然後是商業。

So I don't think that is a signal at all.

所以我認為這根本不是一個訊號。

As Jeff pointed out, our consumer business has grown slightly in the U.S. quarter-over-quarter, really strong across all segments as it relates to international whether it's SME or whether it's consumer, mid-teen, double-digit growth.

正如傑夫指出的那樣，我們的消費者業務在美國的季度環比略有增長，在所有領域都非常強勁，因為它與國際相關，無論是中小企業還是消費者，都以兩位數的速度增長。

Let me comment on where you may be seeing some softness as we look at the numbers.

讓我評論一下在我們查看這些數字時您可能會看到一些疲軟的地方。

You're seeing a 1% decline as it relates to global.

您會看到 1% 的下降，因為它與全球相關。

A couple of adjustments in there with maybe some jet fuel or things like that.

可能需要一些噴氣燃料或類似的東西進行一些調整。

But you also have to realize we're coming off a high.

但你也必須意識到我們正在走下坡。

It was almost 10% growth in the third quarter of last year.

去年第三季成長近10%。

So to me, that's almost stable.

所以對我來說，這幾乎是穩定的。

And when I think about large and global having been involved with this for a really long time, I'm pretty comfortable about that.

當我想到大型和全球性公司已經參與這個領域很長一段時間時，我對此感到非常滿意。

When you look at SME in the U.S., and we're about 6% up year-over-year, again, off a double-digit high, you've got to delve into it.

當你觀察美國的中小企業時，你會發現我們的同比增長約為 6%，再次脫離了兩位數的高點，你必須深入研究它。

When we look at it, we look at it sort of 3 components of that billing.

當我們查看它時，我們會查看計費的 3 個組成部分。

We look at, are we continuing to acquire?

我們來看看，我們是否繼續收購？

And that has been steady for us.

這對我們來說一直很穩定。

Are we losing accounts either from a competitive perspective or from the perspective of losses, accounts such as go out of business?

我們是否會失去帳戶，無論是從競爭的角度還是從虧損的角度，例如倒閉的帳戶？

And that has been steady.

而且這種情況一直很穩定。

Where we're seeing sort of a softening a little bit is in the organic spend.

我們看到有機支出略有軟化。

What -- if you think about it from a retail perspective, you would think of same-store sales.

如果您從零售角度考慮，您會想到同店銷售。

But even that, again, we came off a high in the third quarter of last year, and that's still a positive trend.

但即便如此，我們在去年第三季再次創下了新高，這仍然是一個正面的趨勢。

So what would concern me is if that same account spending had gone down, it is not.

因此，我擔心的是，如果同一帳戶支出下降了，但事實並非如此。

It is still in positive territory, albeit not in the same sort of significant growth that we saw.

儘管沒有達到我們看到的那種顯著增長，但它仍然處於正值區域。

And to be honest, that was growth that we had not seen before.

老實說，這是我們以前從未見過的成長。

So the sustainability of that was questionable in our minds anyway, and so we feel pretty good about it.

因此，無論如何，這種做法的可持續性在我們看來都是值得懷疑的，所以我們對此感覺很好。

And again, as Jeff mentioned, the credit quality, credit quality is still pristine.

再次，正如傑夫所提到的，信用品質、信用品質仍然是原始的。

We'll next go to the line of Bill Carcache with Nomura Instinet.

接下來我們將進入 Bill Carcache 和 Nomura Instinet 的系列。

I had a follow-up question on your fee-based products.

我對你們的收費產品有一個後續問題。

Some innovative fintech players like Square are enjoying some success in targeting the unbanked and underbanked customer segment, for example, with their cash app and goal of getting customers to use it as their primary bank account through direct deposit.

Square 等一些創新金融科技公司在針對無銀行帳戶和銀行服務不足的客戶群體方面取得了一些成功，例如，他們的現金應用程式以及讓客戶透過直接存款將其用作主要銀行帳戶的目標。

You guys were well ahead of this trend years ago when you identified an opportunity to generate fee-based income in the segment with products like Bluebird and Serve.

幾年前，當你們發現透過 Bluebird 和 Serve 等產品在該領域產生收費收入的機會時，你們就遠遠領先於這一趨勢。

Can you give us some general color on how you guys are thinking about those products today?

可以為我們介紹一下你們今天對這些產品的看法嗎？

Do you still see the growth opportunity there as attractive?

您仍然認為那裡的成長機會有吸引力嗎？

How focused are you on growing those products?

您對開發這些產品的關注程度如何？

Is continued innovation and enhancement of the underlying app something that you guys are investing in?

你們正在投資持續創新和增強底層應用程式嗎？

And just in general, are you seeing some customers use Bluebird and Serve for direct deposit?

總的來說，您是否看到一些客戶使用 Bluebird 和 Serve 進行直接存款？

Not -- we're not focused on it at all.

不——我們根本不關注它。

In fact, we sold that last year to InComm.

事實上，我們去年把它賣給了 InComm。

That's not a segment that we see as an opportunity for us.

我們認為這不是一個機會。

We took a run at it.

我們嘗試了一下。

And the theory of the case was that you would be able to upgrade those customers into our product, into our traditional product set.

該案例的理論是，您將能夠將這些客戶升級到我們的產品，並升級到我們的傳統產品集。

The reality is that was a bridge too far to cross.

現實是，那是一座太遠而難以跨越的橋。

And so we sold off that portfolio of Bluebird, of Serve and the gift cards to InComm last year.

因此，我們去年將 Bluebird、Serve 和禮品卡的投資組合賣給了 InComm。

And I think InComm's really happy with that transaction, and we are really happy with that transaction.

我認為 InComm 對這筆交易非常滿意，我們對這筆交易也非常滿意。

We do not see that as a growth opportunity for us at all.

我們根本不認為這對我們來說是一個成長機會。

Our next question will be from the line of Moshe Orenbuch with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Moshe Orenbuch。

Recognizing that credit, no sign of deterioration, in fact, actually has probably improved over the course of the year.

事實上，信貸沒有惡化的跡象，在這一年中實際上可能有所改善。

Any sense as to how to think about just the impact of CECL on ongoing provisions relative to that kind of 50-ish percent increase on the credit piece as we think about the growth of provisions into next year?

當我們考慮明年的準備金成長時，相對於信貸部分 50% 左右的成長，如何考慮 CECL 對持續準備金的影響有什麼意義嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Obviously, Moshe, that's a very fair question.

顯然，摩西，這是一個非常公平的問題。

We're still not ready to quantify.

我們還沒準備好量化。

I do think the range we've given for the onetime impact, you can sort of do some back-of-the-envelope math off of that.

我確實認為我們為一次性影響給出的範圍，您可以對此進行一些粗略的數學計算。

But there are so many complex pieces for CECL.

但 CECL 有許多複雜的部分。

Obviously, CECL will also require us to incorporate into our accounting provision forward-looking economic forecast amongst the over 100 other variables that will be part of the 150-plus customer segments and models that drive this.

顯然，CECL 還將要求我們將前瞻性經濟預測納入我們的會計準備中，其中包括 100 多個其他變量，這些變量將成為驅動這一趨勢的 150 多個客戶群和模型的一部分。

So directionally, I am very comfortable saying there is some -- given our levels of growth, some higher provision expense you would expect in a normal economic environment under CECL.

因此，從方向上來說，我很高興地說，考慮到我們的成長水平，在 CECL 的正常經濟環境下，您會預期會有一些更高的撥備費用。

I am just not ready to give an exact number.

我只是還沒準備好給出確切的數字。

I really want to emphasize though what I said in my earlier remarks, which are that from our perspective, this is pure accounting-driven acceleration of losses that ultimately would have run through our financial statements.

我真的想強調一下，我在之前的演講中說過，從我們的角度來看，這純粹是會計驅動的損失加速，最終將貫穿我們的財務報表。

Anyway, it has 0 impact on real economics.

無論如何，對實體經濟影響為零。

It has 0 impact on our view of risk.

它對我們的風險看法影響為零。

And that is why as we think about 2020, we think we are going to make a series of decisions about what we're willing and what we think is prudent to invest in continuing to drive the business for the long term.

這就是為什麼當我們考慮 2020 年時，我們認為我們將就我們願意和我們認為謹慎的投資做出一系列決定，以繼續長期推動業務發展。

And then we'll let the CECL changes to the recent fall where they will.

然後我們將讓 CECL 在最近秋天進行更改。

We'll go now to the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

現在我們將討論摩根士丹利的貝特西·格拉塞克 (Betsy Graseck) 的觀點。

Okay.

好的。

So I just wanted to dig in a little bit, Steve, to the comment that you were making earlier around the opportunity to penetrate your Corporate Card customers with Personal Card.

史蒂夫，我只是想深入探討一下您之前就透過個人卡滲透公司卡客戶的機會發表的評論。

And the reason I asked the question is, I would have thought this was something that was well done and already was maxed out.

我問這個問題的原因是，我以為這是一件做得很好並且已經達到極限的事情。

But your comment suggests it's not.

但你的評論表明事實並非如此。

So I wanted to understand is this -- is the go-to-market strategy different?

所以我想了解的是──進入市場的策略是否有所不同？

And what kind of opportunity set you could get?

您可以獲得什麼樣的機會？

And then Jeff, if you could just reiterate the mark-to-market benefit that you had and where we're supposed to strip that out?

然後傑夫，您是否可以重申您所擁有的按市值計價的好處以及我們應該在哪裡剔除它？

I'm getting a couple of questions in on exactly where we're supposed to strip that $0.05 out of things.

我收到了幾個問題，關於我們應該從哪些方面扣除 0.05 美元。

Yes.

是的。

The reality is we really have not focused on penetrating our Corporate Card base with our Personal Cards for pretty much forever.

現實情況是，我們實際上並沒有永遠專注於用我們的個人卡滲透我們的公司卡基礎。

We did some tests last year.

我們去年做了一些測試。

Part of it was a reluctance in our -- with our Corporate Card customers for us to access the base.

部分原因是我們的公司卡客戶不願意讓我們進入基地。

But the tide has changed.

但潮流已經改變。

The tide has changed.

潮流已經改變。

We've had companies come to us and ask us as they look to bring more value to their employees, "Can we do that?" And so this is a welcome opportunity for us.

有些公司來找我們，當他們希望為員工帶來更多價值時問我們，“我們能做到嗎？”因此，這對我們來說是一個值得歡迎的機會。

So I would say, it is absolutely new territory for us.

所以我想說，這對我們來說絕對是新領域。

So it's not been maxed out at all.

所以根本沒有達到極限。

That's not to say that our Corporate Card holders do not have Personal Cards, but it is to say that we've never utilized our Corporate Card distribution opportunities within the Corporate Card -- companies that have our Corporate Card.

這並不是說我們的公司卡持有者沒有個人卡，而是說我們從未利用過公司卡（擁有我們公司卡的公司）內的公司卡分銷機會。

So we're excited about the opportunity and think that it's going to provide another opportunity to lift our overall cards.

因此，我們對這個機會感到興奮，並認為這將提供另一個提升我們整體實力的機會。

On the mark-to-market, Betsy, I made 2 points.

關於以市值計價，Betsy，我提出了 2 點。

Just to remind everyone, beginning last January, we -- all companies began to have to mark-to-market various investments.

只是提醒大家，從去年一月開始，我們所有公司都開始必須以市值計價各種投資。

For us, that really means the 40-or-so investments we have through our Amex Ventures Fund.

對我們來說，這實際上意味著我們透過 Amex Ventures 基金進行了大約 40 項投資。

In general, those marks have not been material.

一般來說，這些標記並不重要。

This quarter, they were a little bit more material.

本季度，它們的材料更多了一些。

They netted to about $0.05 positive.

他們的淨收益約為 0.05 美元。

We see that as an ongoing part of our business.

我們將其視為我們業務的持續組成部分。

My only reference to the $0.05 in terms of -- to use your phrase, Betsy, not mine, stripping out was that when I talked about Q4, I made the observation that we feel really good about the consisting -- consistent operating performance of the company.

我唯一提到的 0.05 美元——用你的話來說，貝特西，而不是我的，剝離出來是，當我談到第四季度時，我觀察到我們對持續的運營表現感到非常好。公司。

And we expect Q4 to look very similar to the first 3 quarters.

我們預計第四季度的情況與前三個季度非常相似。

So as you think about the pure operating performance of the company in the first 3 quarters, in Q1, I take the merchant litigation charge out so that puts you at $2 a share in Q2, it's $2.07 a share.

因此，當你考慮公司前 3 季的純經營業績時，在第一季度，我去掉了商業訴訟費用，這樣你在第二季度的股價為每股 2 美元，即每股 2.07 美元。

And again, going back to this operating performance concept in Q3, that takes you to the about $2.03 level.

再次回到第三季的營運績效概念，這將使您達到約 2.03 美元的水平。

So that's the only context in which I was trying to bring up the $0.05.

所以這是我試圖提出 0.05 美元的唯一背景。

Thank you for the question.

感謝你的提問。

We will move on to the line of Mark DeVries with Barclays.

我們將繼續討論馬克·德弗里斯 (Mark DeVries) 與巴克萊銀行 (Barclays) 的合作。

I don't imagine you've gotten this question in a while, just given how strong your revenue growth has been.

考慮到您的收入成長有多強勁，我想您已經有一段時間沒有被問到這個問題了。

And it sounds like you're pretty confident in the outlook for 2020 as well around revenue growth.

聽起來您對 2020 年的前景以及收入成長非常有信心。

But I had been getting some questions from investors asking how much room you guys have to control and slow the growth of OpEx should revenue growth as Steve, I guess, is the guy who is responsible for getting those OpEx under control when revenue is weak?

但我一直收到投資者的一些問題，詢問如果收入成長，你們有多少空間可以控制和減緩營運支出的成長，因為史蒂夫，我猜，是負責在收入疲軟時控制這些營運支出的人嗎？

I'd be interested in hearing your commentary on thoughts there.

我有興趣聽聽您對那裡的想法的評論。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, look, I think if you look at sort of how we've controlled OpEx over the last 8 years, I think it was an aggregate growth of probably about 6% or so.

我的意思是，如果你看看我們在過去 8 年中如何控制營運支出，我認為整體成長率可能約為 6% 左右。

As we look at it and as we've sort of changed philosophy a little bit to look at high revenue growth, it made sense to not walk away from some of these OpEx opportunities that we had.

當我們看待這個問題時，我們已經稍微改變了理念來看待高收入成長，因此不放棄我們擁有的一些營運支出機會是有意義的。

As Jeff said, I don't think this is a consistent playbook that we're going to run.

正如傑夫所說，我認為這不是我們要執行的一致的劇本。

But I have all the confidence in the world in our ability to control OpEx.

但我對我們控制營運支出的能力充滿信心。

We're still providing operating leverage when you think about sort of 9 to 5 here, which is what we've done.

當你想到這裡的朝九晚五時，我們仍然提供營運槓桿，而這就是我們所做的。

The problem is when you're growing revenue at 4, and you're growing revenue at 5, if you want that leverage, you've got to grow OpEx at about 1. So the delta is relatively similar to what we've been doing.

問題是，當你的收入成長為4 倍，而你的收入成長為5 倍時，如果你想要這種槓桿作用，你就必須將營運支出成長到1 左右。因此，增量與我們之前的情況相對相似正在做。

And we'll look at good investment opportunities.

我們將尋找良好的投資機會。

But you're right.

但你是對的。

I was known as the OpEx guy here for a lot of years and still am.

多年來，我一直被稱為營運支出專家，現在仍然如此。

I still drive people crazy about it, and I will continue to do that.

我仍然讓人們為之瘋狂，而且我會繼續這樣做。

But we're not going to make any foolish decisions, and I believe that we still have operating leverage opportunities as it relates to OpEx and revenue.

但我們不會做出任何愚蠢的決定，我相信我們仍然擁有與營運支出和收入相關的營運槓桿機會。

We have a question from the line of David Togut with Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 David Togut 向我們提出了一個問題。

David, you there?

大衛，你在嗎？

David?

大衛？

All right.

好的。

We will move on to the line of Chris Donat with Sandler and O'Neill (sic) [Sandler O'Neill].

我們將繼續討論克里斯·多納特、桑德勒和奧尼爾（原文如此）[桑德勒·奧尼爾]的路線。

I had a question about marketing spend because as I think about this year and even last year, you had some elevated marketing spend with the brand refresh in 2018 that's built into 2019.

我有一個關於行銷支出的問題，因為我認為今年甚至去年，隨著 2018 年品牌更新（2019 年的品牌更新），行銷支出有所增加。

Then you have the Delta agreement, which also led to the $200 million of elevated spending.

然後是達美航空協議，這也導致了 2 億美元的支出增加。

And then you've all these product refreshes.

然後你就擁有了所有這些產品更新。

I'm just wondering as we think about 2020, do you come up against some easier comps on spending?

我只是想知道，當我們思考 2020 年時，您是否遇到過一些更容易的支出補償？

Or there are things in the pipeline that will likely absorb marketing spend in 2020?

或者正在醞釀的事情可能會吸收 2020 年的行銷支出？

Just thinking about how to compare 2020 to 2019.

只是想如何比較 2020 年和 2019 年。

Yes.

是的。

In many ways, Chris, I think the examples you cited are a wonderful illustration of why a few years ago, we began to encourage people to focus on broadly what we call our customer engagement costs, right?

從很多方面來說，克里斯，我認為你引用的例子很好地說明了為什麼幾年前我們開始鼓勵人們廣泛關注我們所說的客戶參與成本，對嗎？

Because we pull different levers at different times in the rewards category or to your point, in the traditional marketing category around brand spending or in spending we do in the payments department -- partner area with Delta.

因為我們在獎勵類別或您的觀點中的不同時間拉動不同的槓桿，在圍繞品牌支出的傳統營銷類別或我們在支付部門（與達美航空合作夥伴領域）的支出中。

And at other times, we used to put resources into Card Member Services.

在其他時候，我們曾經將資源投入卡片會員服務。

So the trends in any one of those lines may vary a little bit from year-to-year or from quarter-to-quarter.

因此，其中任何一條線的趨勢每年或每季都可能略有不同。

The broad group of all of them, however, is what we're using to drive high levels of revenue growth.

然而，我們正在利用所有這些因素來推動收入的高水準成長。

And we've been very consistent for some years now, Chris, in saying we do expect that collectively, those costs are going to grow a little bit faster than revenue.

克里斯，多年來我們一直非常一致地表示，我們確實預計總體而言，這些成本的成長速度將比收入的成長速度快一些。

But that's what's going to enable us to drive, in today's environment, 8% to 10% revenue growth.

但這將使我們能夠在當今環境下推動 8% 至 10% 的營收成長。

It's why the OpEx leverage, Steve just talked about, is so important to help mitigate that margin compression you get from customer engagement because OpEx would grow more slowly than our revenues.

這就是為什麼史蒂夫剛才談到的營運支出槓桿對於幫助緩解客戶參與帶來的利潤壓縮非常重要，因為營運支出的成長速度比我們的收入慢。

You combine that with our strong balance sheet, and that's how we have a model that is consistently producing double-digit EPS.

將其與我們強大的資產負債表相結合，這就是我們如何擁有持續產生兩位數每股收益的模型的原因。

Our next question will be from the line of Dominick Gabriele with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自多米尼克·加布里埃爾（Dominick Gabriele）和奧本海默（Oppenheimer）的問題。

Look, the diversity of the revenue growth is really strong, for sure.

看起來，收入成長的多樣性確實很強，這是肯定的。

And I think one thing that is taking some investors by surprise is not only the fee for card or the NIM expanding this quarter but -- to some extent, but really the discount rate has been on quite a nice trajectory.

我認為讓一些投資者感到驚訝的一件事不僅是信用卡費用或本季淨利差擴大，而且在某種程度上，折扣率實際上一直處於相當不錯的軌道上。

And I know that you talked about not managing to the discount rate.

我知道您談到無法達到折扣率。

But your strategy has shown at least over the last number of quarters that the discount rate is moving up as well, and that's a nice benefit as well.

但你的策略至少在過去幾季顯示折扣率也在上升，這也是一個很好的優點。

Can you just talk about what you've lapped?

能簡單談談你所經歷的事情嗎？

And what's going into the discount rate expanding just as a natural piece of the puzzle here?

貼現率的擴大會導致什麼問題呢？

Yes.

是的。

As you know, and I always say this, I really don't focus on the discount rate all that much.

如你所知，我總是這麼說，我真的不太關注折扣率。

Yes, it's been consistent.

是的，一直是一致的。

It's a little bit up.

有點漲了。

But I think you've got a couple things going on.

但我認為你有一些事情正在發生。

I mean you've got -- there's some strategic renegotiations that we lapped.

我的意思是，我們已經進行了一些策略重新談判。

There was activity in Europe.

歐洲有活動。

There was activity in Australia.

澳洲有活動。

In any given quarter, there's a mix of business.

在任何特定季度，業務都是混合的。

And so all those things contribute.

所以所有這些事情都有貢獻。

What I really focus in on is the consistent discount revenue growth.

我真正關注的是折扣收入的持續成長。

And if you want to project this out, the reality is, is that as you expand into B2B, you're not going to have the same kind of discount rate in B2B.

如果你想預測這一點，現實是，當你擴展到 B2B 時，你不會在 B2B 中獲得相同的折扣率。

But again, there, what I'd like to focus on is what the margin is, right?

但同樣，我想關注的是利潤是多少，對吧？

And so if you look at a lower discount rate, you'll also look at lower rewards costs and things like that.

因此，如果您考慮較低的折扣率，您也會考慮較低的獎勵成本等。

And so ultimately, what we really focus in is the margin between the discount rate and the cost that go along with those billings.

因此，最終，我們真正關注的是折扣率與這些帳單相關的成本之間的差額。

But we're really pleased with the way discount revenue has gone.

但我們對折扣收入的變化感到非常滿意。

And when all the numbers come in, the discount rate is flattish to up and that's okay, too.

當所有數字都進來時，折扣率會持平或上升，這也沒關係。

We'll go to the line of James Friedman with Susquehanna for your question.

我們將聯繫詹姆斯·弗里德曼和薩斯奎哈納來回答你的問題。

Congrats on the numbers, guys.

恭喜你的數字，夥計們。

I just wanted to ask, Jeff, with regard to the GNS, Slide 6, up 3% adjusted.

我只是想問，傑夫，關於 GNS，幻燈片 6，調整了 3%。

I think you made -- in your prepared remarks, you said that we were -- lapping that in 2020 might be -- this might be over, meaning like the tough compares.

我認為你在準備好的演講中說過，我們正在——2020 年可能會——這可能會結束，這意味著艱難的比較。

Is 3% what we should be thinking about as kind of the new norm when we expect the business...

當我們預期業務成長時，3% 是我們應該考慮的新常態嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So a couple of questions or a couple of comments, James.

詹姆斯，有幾個問題或一些評論。

First, remember, in many ways, the most important aspect of our GNS network these days is driving coverage in 170-or-so countries around the globe.

首先，請記住，從許多方面來看，如今我們的 GNS 網路最重要的方面是推動全球 170 多個國家/地區的覆蓋範圍。

And we rely on a network of great partners to do that for us in many countries, and that's priority 1.

我們依靠優秀合作夥伴網絡在許多國家為我們做到這一點，這是首要任務 1。

Second thing is that not all GNS billings are the same.

第二件事是並非所有 GNS 帳單都是相同的。

In general, as you know, the financial contribution from GNS itself is more modest than its billing contribution.

一般來說，如您所知，GNS 本身的財務貢獻比其計費貢獻要小。

That contribution also varies a lot from country to country.

不同國家的貢獻也有很大差異。

And we have a few large countries that drive a whole lot of billings, much more modest economics.

我們有一些大國，它們帶來了大量的收入，但經濟規模卻小得多。

And those billings can be a little bit volatile quarter-to-quarter.

這些帳單每個季度可能會有點波動。

So I don't -- I wouldn't take the 3% as a mark of what you will consistently see once we finish lapping Europe and Australia.

所以我不會——我不會把 3% 當作我們完成歐洲和澳洲繞行後你將持續看到的標誌。

I think you'll see it probably trend back up a little bit from there.

我想你會看到它可能會從那裡開始回升。

But the most important thing to keep in mind is the GNS network around the globe is really about coverage.

但最重要的是要記住，全球的 GNS 網路實際上是覆蓋範圍。

We have a question in queue from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

我們有一個來自美國銀行 Jason Kupferberg 的問題。

I'm Jeff.

我是傑夫。

Just wanted to put a finer point on your EPS math because I know you didn't formally narrow the full year EPS range, but it sounds like you're pointing us to around $2.03 or so for Q4, which I think would get us to around $8.19 or so for the full year.

只是想對您的EPS 數學進行更詳細的說明，因為我知道您沒有正式縮小全年EPS 範圍，但聽起來您向我們指出第四季度的每股收益約為2.03 美元左右，我認為這會讓我們全年約為 8.19 美元左右。

So I just wanted to clarify that.

所以我只是想澄清這一點。

And then do you think that we've troughed in terms of large enterprise volume growth, just the down 1 this quarter?

那麼您是否認為我們在大型企業數量成長方面已經觸底，但本季下降了 1？

I know there were some moving parts there, but...

我知道那裡有一些活動部件，但是...

Well, let me make a few comments on guidance, maybe including philosophy, Jason.

好吧，讓我對指導發表一些評論，也許包括哲學，傑森。

And then, Steve, you can comment on the large and global customers.

然後，史蒂夫，你可以對大型全球客戶發表評論。

Look, our philosophy, which we have tried to be true to this year as we come out at the beginning of the year, and we tell you, "Here is our expectation for the full year," and we give you some color around that.

看，我們的理念，我們在今年年初推出時就試圖忠實於這一理念，我們告訴你，“這是我們對全年的期望”，我們給你一些關於這一點的顏色。

And then our expectation is as we report our results each quarter, we're going to tell you if something has happened so dramatically that it takes us out of that original range.

然後我們的期望是，當我們每個季度報告業績時，我們將告訴您是否發生了戲劇性的事情，導致我們超出了最初的範圍。

But beyond that, we're just going to give you some color about how things are going.

但除此之外，我們只是想讓您了解事情的進展。

We also really we want to emphasize that we are running the company for the long term.

我們也確實想強調，我們正在長期經營公司。

We're certainly not running it to produce quarter-by-quarter results, but we will be true to our annual kinds of earnings commitments.

我們當然不會運行它來產生季度業績，但我們將忠實於我們的年度收益承諾。

So that's just, I think, important background.

所以我認為這只是重要的背景。

As to the specific math, look, I think, Jason, you did your math.

至於具體的數學，我想傑森，你已經做了數學。

I'm not going to confirm or not confirm your specific math.

我不會確認或不確認你的具體數學。

But I think I was trying to be very clear that our operating performance has been really consistent across the first 3 quarters.

但我想我試圖非常清楚地表明，我們前三個季度的經營業績確實保持一致。

You can measure that $2 a share or $2.07 a share, probably $2.03 for this quarter.

您可以衡量每股 2 美元或每股 2.07 美元，本季可能為 2.03 美元。

And we'd expect the fourth quarter to look something like that.

我們預計第四季會是這樣。

Yes.

是的。

As far as global and large accounts, global and large accounts in 2018 had a really terrific year.

就全球和大客戶而言，2018 年的全球和大客戶確實度過了非常棒的一年。

And so going into this year, our expectations weren't the same expectations as they were last year.

因此，進入今年，我們的期望與去年的期望不同。

As we think about sort of planning forward, I would think about sort of the 0% range for the fourth quarter for global and large accounts.

當我們考慮未來的規劃時，我會考慮全球和大型帳戶第四季度的 0% 範圍。

And then I think it gets back to historical levels for us, which is anywhere between 1% and 4%.

然後我認為它會回到我們的歷史水平，即 1% 到 4% 之間。

It's just because a lot of that is T&E.

只是因為其中很多都是差旅費。

As we start to penetrate more into the B2B space, then I think you'll see that go up.

當我們開始更多地滲透到 B2B 領域時，我想您會看到這一數字的上升。

But as I said, traditionally, as I've met with CFOs and so forth, they're not driving to move their T&E spend up.

但正如我所說，傳統上，正如我與財務長等會面的那樣，他們不會推動增加差旅費支出。

What they're looking for us to do is actually to help them manage their T&E spend down.

他們希望我們做的實際上是幫助他們管理差旅和娛樂支出。

And so it's a very interesting business in that our value proposition is we help you manage your cost down.

因此，這是一項非常有趣的業務，因為我們的價值主張是幫助您降低成本。

And we do that through benchmarking, we do that through helping them negotiate, and we do that by providing insights.

我們透過基準測試、幫助他們談判、提供見解來做到這一點。

And so it's an interesting business where to retain count -- to retain accounts, you actually help them shrink a little bit.

因此，保留計數是一項有趣的業務，為了保留帳戶，您實際上可以幫助它們縮小一點。

And so then you need to go get some more accounts.

那你需要去獲得更多帳戶。

So we're very comfortable with sort of the traditional levels.

所以我們對傳統的關卡非常滿意。

I think what you saw last year was just people getting out a lot more, including ourselves actually and just spending a little bit more on T&E.

我認為你去年看到的只是人們更多地外出，實際上包括我們自己，只是在差旅費上花費了更多。

But I think it's fair to think about this in sort of the 0% to 3% range going forward.

但我認為，以 0% 到 3% 的範圍來考慮這一點是公平的。

We'll go next to the line of Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

我們將沿著唐范德蒂 (Don Fandetti) 與富國銀行 (Wells Fargo) 的路線進行。

Yes.

是的。

So wanted to dig in a little bit on the small business year-over-year spend growth rate.

因此想深入了解小企業的年比支出成長率。

I mean there's a couple of factors.

我的意思是有幾個因素。

Obviously, you've got potentially like weaker or more caution on the core business front.

顯然，您在核心業務方面可能會變得更弱或更謹慎。

But I assumed you're still getting that secular penetration.

但我以為你仍然能獲得世俗的洞察力。

I want to know if that's still happening at the same rate.

我想知道這種情況是否仍然以同樣的速度發生。

And then also your position in small business is remarkably higher than your peers.

而且你在小企業中的地位也明顯高於你的同行。

Is there any change in competition?

競爭有變化嗎？

Are you holding share?

你持有股份嗎？

Or is this all just sort of normal caution and tougher comps?

或者這只是一種正常的謹慎和更嚴格的比較？

And then lastly, around that same thing, when does B2B kick in as these small businesses automate accounts payable, accounts receivable?

最後，圍繞著同樣的事情，隨著這些小型企業自動化應付帳款、應收帳款，B2B 何時開始發揮作用？

I think you had said you get a 42% uplift in spend if that happens.

我想您曾說過，如果發生這種情況，您的支出將增加 42%。

I mean is it just still early in that process, what we see in 2020, '21?

我的意思是，我們在 2020 年、21 年所看到的情況是否還處於這個過程的早期階段？

Yes.

是的。

So, Don, the last question first.

那麼，唐，首先是最後一個問題。

I think it's still early in the process.

我認為這個過程還處於早期階段。

Automating that spend and what you do with someone like acom or what you do with some of the other providers, these are interfaces to whatever sort of accounts receivable, procurement systems that they have.

自動化支出以及您與 acom 等公司或其他一些提供者的合作，這些都是他們擁有的任何類型的應收帳款、採購系統的介面。

And it's not always their priority to do that.

而且這並不總是他們的首要任務。

So that takes a little bit of time.

所以這需要一點時間。

So you'll see a little bit of uptick in 2020, 2021, so forth and so on.

因此，您將在 2020 年、2021 年等等看到一點點上升。

Look, I think that let's just talk about sort of secular penetration.

聽著，我想我們就談談世俗滲透吧。

I think we are still acquiring accounts.

我認為我們仍在獲取帳戶。

And we don't look at so much at accounts as we look at acquired billed business.

我們關注的不是客戶，而是收購的計費業務。

We're acquiring billed business at pretty much the same rate we've been acquiring it.

我們收購計費業務的速度與收購它的速度幾乎相同。

As I mentioned before, we're not losing accounts at any higher level or lower level than we've had probably for the last 8 quarters.

正如我之前提到的，我們失去的帳戶數量不會比過去 8 個季度的水平更高或更低。

We're pretty consistent on that.

我們在這一點上非常一致。

As far as our overall position in the market, I think it's really, really consistent and hasn't really changed.

就我們在市場中的整體地位而言，我認為它非常非常一致，並且沒有真正改變。

I think I'll point you back to what I said before.

我想我會讓你回到我之前所說的。

I think the downturn that we've seen in our growth rate here is really around what we would call organic.

我認為我們在這裡看到的成長率下降實際上是我們所說的有機成長。

And now that it's not growing, it's just not growing fast enough or it's not growing at the same rate it did last year when it had a lot of momentum, especially from the Tax Act.

現在它沒有成長，只是成長不夠快，或者成長速度不如去年，當時它有很大的動力，尤其是來自稅法的推動力。

Having said all that, there is more competition in this space than we've seen in a long, long time because much like banks found after sort of the Great Recession that the consumer credit card business was an attractive area.

話雖如此，這個領域的競爭比我們長期以來看到的還要激烈，因為就像銀行在大衰退之後發現消費者信用卡業務是一個有吸引力的領域一樣。

Banks have now found out that this area is attractive as well.

銀行現在發現這個領域也很有吸引力。

Having said that, if you added the next 5 largest issuers up in the small business space, I'll have the same refrain that I've had for the last 2 years, we're bigger than them all put together.

話雖如此，如果你把小型企業領域接下來的 5 家最大發行人加起來，我會像過去兩年一樣強調，我們的規模比它們加起來還要大。

So we're really comfortable where we are.

所以我們現在的處境真的很舒服。

We don't see anything, from a competitive perspective, that is any different other than it keeps to step up the competition, but -- and we continue to add to our array of products whether it's working capital terms, whether it's merchant financing, cross-border and, obviously, the continued enhancements to our small business products.

從競爭的角度來看，我們沒有看到任何不同，除了不斷加強競爭之外，但是 - 我們繼續增加我們的產品系列，無論是營運資金條款，無論是商業融資，跨境，顯然還有我們小型企業產品的持續增強。

So we still feel really good about where we are from a small business perspective.

因此，從小型企業的角度來看，我們仍然對自己的處境感到非常滿意。

Our final question will come from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

Maybe just to follow up with some of the lines of questioning previously.

也許只是為了跟進之前的一些問題。

When you guys think about your comfort in delivering the high levels of revenue growth next year, which I assume is within the range of what we saw in 2019, how possible is it to hit those numbers with some more moderation in billed business volumes?

當你們想到明年實現高水準收入成長的舒適度時（我認為這在我們 2019 年看到的範圍內），如果計費業務量更加適度，如何可能達到這些數字？

Is your level of comfort because you feel like some of the investments you've made will sustain that type of billed business growth?

您是否感到放心，因為您覺得您所做的一些投資將維持這種類型的計費業務成長？

Or do you expect the high levels of fee income growth will persist, given the Delta fees come on in 2020?

或者考慮到 2020 年開始實施達美費用，您預計費用收入的高水準成長將持續下去嗎？

Any color would be helpful.

任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, look, I think when you're making -- here's the issue, right?

所以我的意思是，聽著，我想當你製作時——這就是問題所在，對吧？

So many investments that you make this year don't pay off this year.

你今年所做的許多投資今年都沒有得到回報。

They pay off as it goes next year.

明年他們就會得到回報。

And so you hit the nail on the head.

所以你一語中的。

When you think about sort of what we've done from a Delta perspective, when you think about the cards that we've acquired, when you think about so many investments that we've made in some of the digital properties, when you think about sort of the consistent high discount revenue that we've had, yes, even with a tick down in billings, that still will be positive and yet our fee revenue due to our continued maniacal focus on card refreshes.

當你從達美航空的角度思考我們所做的事情時，當你思考我們已經獲得的卡片時，當你思考我們在某些​​數位資產上進行的大量投資時，當你思考關於我們一直以來的高折扣收入，是的，即使帳單有所下降，這仍然是積極的，但由於我們持續瘋狂地關注卡刷新，我們的費用收入。

The other thing I would point out is that this is a growth story globally.

我要指出的另一件事是，這是一個全球成長的故事。

This is not a growth story just in the United States.

這不僅僅是美國的成長故事。

And so when you think about 14% billings growth in consumer internationally, 18% SME growth, even a tick or 2 down there is not really going to hurt you all that much.

因此，當你考慮國際消費者 14% 的帳單成長、18% 的中小企業成長時，即使下降一兩個刻度，也不會對你造成太大傷害。

And we've been pretty consistent from an SME and consumer perspective.

從中小企業和消費者的角度來看，我們的觀點非常一致。

So I think when you think about the 3-legged stool that we have from a revenue perspective of fees, net -- interest income and discount revenue, we feel really comfortable.

所以我認為，當你從費用、淨利息收入和折扣收入的收入角度考慮我們擁有的三腳凳時，我們感到非常舒適。

And that's why as Jeff said in his -- sort of at the end of his remarks, in this same economic environment, we feel good about 8% to 10%.

這就是為什麼正如傑夫在他的演講結束時所說的那樣，在同樣的經濟環境下，我們對 8% 到 10% 的成長率感覺良好。

Look, the billings wasn't -- the billings this year weren't exactly what we had projected and look at where we are from a revenue perspective.

看，今年的帳單並不完全符合我們的預期，從收入的角度來看我們的情況。

So yes, our comfort level is there.

所以是的，我們的舒適度就在那裡。

With that, we'll bring the call to an end.

這樣，我們就結束通話。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Thank you, again, for joining today's call, and thank you for your continued interest in American Express.

再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議，並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。

The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions.

IR 團隊將隨時解答任何後續問題。

Operator, back to you.

接線員，回到您身邊。

Ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be made available for digitized replay beginning at 11:00 a.m.

女士們、先生們，本次會議將於上午 11 點開始提供數位化重播。

Eastern Time today and running until October 25 at midnight, Eastern Time.

東部時間今天持續到東部時間 10 月 25 日午夜。

You can access the AT&T teleconference replay system by dialing 1 (800) 475-6701 and entering the replay access code 471806.

您可以透過撥打 1 (800) 475-6701 並輸入重播存取碼 471806 來存取 AT&T 電話會議重播系統。

International participants may dial 1 (320) 365-3844 with the access code 471806.

國際參與者可撥打 1 (320) 365-3844，接入碼為 471806。

That will conclude our conference call for today.

我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive TeleConference Service.

感謝您的參與並使用 AT&T Executive TeleConference Service。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。