Avient Corp (AVNT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Avient Corporation's webcast to discuss the company's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. My name is Norma, and I'll be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們先生們早上好，歡迎收看 Avient Corporation 的網路廣播，討論該公司第四季和 2023 年全年業績。我叫諾瑪，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播之用。

I would now like to turn the call over to Joe Di Salvo, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please proceed.

我現在想將電話轉給財務主管和投資者關係副總裁 Joe Di Salvo。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call today.

謝謝大家，今天參加我們電話會議的所有人早安。

Before beginning, I'd like to remind you that statements made during this webcast may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements will give current expectations or forecasts of future events and are not guarantees of future performance. They're based on management's expectation and involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statement. Please refer to the investor presentation for this webcast for a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，本次網路廣播中的陳述可能被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述將給出當前的預期或對未來事件的預測，而不是對未來業績的保證。它們基於管理階層的預期，涉及許多業務風險和不確定性，任何風險和不確定性都可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。請參閱本次網路廣播的投資人演示，以了解可能導致實際結果有所不同的許多因素。

During the discussion today, the company will use both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the presentation posted on the Avient website, where the company describes the non-GAAP measures and provides a reconciliation or historical non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

在今天的討論中，公司將使用公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。請參閱 Avient 網站上發布的演示文稿，其中該公司描述了非 GAAP 衡量標準，並提供了與其最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量標準的對帳或歷史非 GAAP 財務衡量標準。

Joining me today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Ashish Khandpur; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Beggs. We also have Bob Patterson who is serving in a transition advisory role with the company. Bob will briefly make some opening remarks before we start the discussion of performance.

今天與我一起出席的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Ashish Khandpur 博士；資深副總裁兼財務長傑米‧貝格斯 (Jamie Beggs)。我們還有鮑勃·帕特森 (Bob Patterson)，他在公司擔任過渡顧問職務。在我們開始討論表演之前，鮑勃將簡短地做一些開場白。

I will now hand the call over to Bob to begin.

我現在將把電話交給鮑伯開始。

Thanks, Joe, and good morning, everyone. Last November, I announced my plans to retire and pursue my lifelong passion for teaching and spending more time doing that at the University of Michigan, my alma mater.

謝謝喬，大家早安。去年 11 月，我宣布計劃退休，追求我一生對教學的熱情，並花更多時間在我的母校密西根大學從事教學工作。

Today, I have the privilege of introducing Dr. Ashish Khandpur who succeeds me as Avient's new President and Chief Executive Officer. Ashish took over on December 1, and brings a fresh perspective to our specialty portfolio that has undergone a tremendous transformation over the past decade. Ashish joined us from 3M, where he spent 28 years. A chemical engineer by education and trade, he began his career there and rose to become Chief Technology Officer of the company.

今天，我很榮幸向大家介紹 Ashish Khandpur 博士，他接替我成為 Avient 的新總裁兼執行長。Ashish 於 12 月 1 日上任，為我們在過去十年中經歷了巨大轉變的專業產品組合帶來了全新的視角。Ashish 在加入我們之前曾在 3M 工作了 28 年。他是一名受過教育和貿易的化學工程師，在那裡開始了他的職業生涯，並晉升為公司的首席技術長。

Over those nearly three decades, he distinguished himself as a brilliant scientist, innovator, and ultimately a proven business leader and operator. His last role at 3M was Group President of Transportation and Electronics, a $9 billion business. It's a business he took into high-growth end markets with new technologies and applications, which is exactly where Avient is focused.

在這近三十年的時間裡，他成為了一位傑出的科學家、創新者，最後也成為了一位久經考驗的商業領袖和經營者。他在 3M 的最後一個職位是運輸和電子業務集團總裁，這是一家價值 90 億美元的業務。他利用新技術和應用進入高成長終端市場，而這正是 Avient 所關注的領域。

I have been with the company almost 16 years in total and nearly 10 as CEO. During that time, we have upgraded our portfolio by divesting commodity businesses and reinvesting the proceeds in two transformational and 17 bolt-on acquisitions. We are the number one leading color formulator in the world. We have built a composites portfolio from scratch, which includes Dyneema, the world's strongest fiber. We've completely transformed where EBITDA is generated from and now have 100% of our businesses dedicated to formulating specialty solutions.

我在公司工作了近 16 年，其中擔任執行長近 10 年。在此期間，我們透過剝離大宗商品業務並將收益再投資於兩項轉型收購和 17 項補強收購來升級我們的投資組合。我們是世界第一的領先色彩配方設計師。我們從頭開始建立了複合材料產品組合，其中包括世界上最強的纖維迪尼瑪。我們已經徹底改變了 EBITDA 的產生方式，現在我們 100% 的業務致力於制定專業解決方案。

I look back on my time with the company with a lot of pride and appreciation for what we accomplished. The transformed portfolio is a perfect springboard for Ashish to elevate Avient to the next level of performance. I'm confident he will drive profitable growth and create long-term value for our shareholders. His background and experiences are perfect for the next era in Avient's journey. To our associates, shareholders, and Board of Directors, I thank you for your support and trust during my tenure.

回顧我在公司工作的時光，我對我們所取得的成就感到非常自豪和讚賞。轉型後的產品組合是 Ashish 將 Avient 的表現提升到新境界的完美跳板。我相信他將推動獲利成長並為我們的股東創造長期價值。他的背景和經歷非常適合 Avient 旅程的下一個時代。對於我們的員工、股東和董事會，我感謝你們在我任職期間的支持和信任。

I now leave you in very capable hands with Ashish, Jamie, and the 9,500 associates at Avient I've had the pleasure of working with.

現在，我將把你們交給非常有能力的人，包括 Ashish、Jamie 以及我有幸共事過的 Avient 9,500 名員工。

Thank you, Bob, and congratulations on your retirement.

謝謝你，鮑勃，恭喜你退休。

A transformation of any kind is difficult, difficult for an organization to go through, but even more challenging for the person leading it. These achievements of transforming Avient to 100% specialty portfolio took commitment, talent, and certainly leadership. Bob has provided all three. It is a retirement well earned, and I wish him the very best in health and happiness.

任何形式的轉型都是困難的，對組織來說是困難的，對領導者來說則更具挑戰性。將 Avient 轉變為 100% 專業產品組合的這些成就需要承諾、人才，當然還有領導力。鮑勃提供了所有這三個。這是他應得的退休生活，我祝福他身體健康、幸福快樂。

In the first two months I have been with Avient, I have had a chance to meet with several stakeholders including investors, customers, and, of course, our talented associates. A common question I get is, why did I join Avient? While there are many factors to consider when changing roles, it ultimately boiled down to the tremendous potential I see to profitably grow the company. Doing so requires a culture of strong customer focus and a relevant portfolio of technologies, both of which Avient possesses. Leveraging these, along with amplifying innovation in high-growth market segments all around secular trends, will help us grow profitably in a sustained manner. This will also require some bold thinking, prioritization, and acting with courage, which are all leadership traits I have personally developed and honed over the years and that I will be purposeful to instill in my teams as well.

在我加入 Avient 的頭兩個月裡，我有機會認識了一些利害關係人，包括投資者、客戶，當然還有我們才華洋溢的同事。我常遇到的一個問題是，我為什麼要加入 Avient？雖然更換角色時需要考慮很多因素，但最終歸結為我看到公司獲利成長的巨大潛力。要做到這一點，需要一種以客戶為中心的文化和相關的技術組合，而這兩者都是 Avient 所擁有的。利用這些優勢，再加上圍繞長期趨勢在高成長細分市場中擴大創新，將有助於我們持續實現獲利成長。這還需要一些大膽的思考、優先順序和勇敢的行動，這些都是我多年來個人發展和磨練的領導特質，我也將有目的地灌輸給我的團隊。

Over the last several years, the company has highlighted its four key growth drivers of sustainable solutions, composites, healthcare, and emerging regions. I see these as secular growth areas, and they currently make up 60% of our business. The team did a great job laying out the market dynamics underlying sustainable solutions as well as showcasing many of our differentiated formulations at last September's Investor Day. I'm also impressed with the trajectory of our composites portfolio as it continues to displace wood, glass, or metal in an increasing number of applications. And while a smaller portion of our portfolio currently, the healthcare business is sticky, profitable, and an area that will continue to grow steadily as our population ages and people trend towards more self-care.

在過去的幾年裡，該公司強調了永續解決方案、複合材料、醫療保健和新興地區的四個關鍵成長驅動力。我認為這些是長期成長領域，目前它們占我們業務的 60%。該團隊出色地闡述了永續解決方案背後的市場動態，並在去年九月的投資者日展示了我們的許多差異化配方。我對我們的複合材料產品組合的發展軌跡也印象深刻，因為它在越來越多的應用中繼續取代木材、玻璃或金屬。雖然目前醫療保健業務只占我們投資組合的一小部分，但它具有黏性、獲利能力強，並且隨著我們的人口老化和人們更加自我保健的趨勢，這一領域將繼續穩定增長。

Now turning to our earnings announcement this morning. I'm extremely pleased to finish the year with fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.52, reflecting an increase of 24% over the prior-year quarter. Jamie will provide more details and some guidance for 2024 in a moment. But first, I'm going to share a few observations on the demand trends we are seeing across the end markets and the major regions of the world that we serve.

現在轉向我們今天早上的收益公告。我非常高興今年第四季調整後每股收益為 0.52 美元，比去年同期成長 24%。Jamie 稍後將提供 2024 年的更多詳細資訊和一些指導。但首先，我將分享一些關於我們所服務的終端市場和世界主要地區的需求趨勢的觀察。

As we noted in our earnings release, our two largest end markets of packaging and consumer benefited from the slowed pace of destocking during the fourth quarter. They make up a little more than 40% of our sales, and while still down year over year, they are much less so than in previous quarters. It is worth noting that both packaging and consumer sales were down sequentially only 4% and 3% respectively from the third quarter to the fourth despite the typical fourth-quarter seasonality we experienced in our business. This, along with the order trends to start the year and insights from our customers, gives us confidence that destocking has largely come to an end in these areas and that orders are more of a reflection of underlying demand.

正如我們在財報中指出的那樣，我們的兩個最大的包裝和消費者終端市場受益於第四季度去庫存步伐的放緩。它們占我們銷售額的 40% 多一點，雖然仍同比下降，但比前幾季少得多。值得注意的是，儘管我們的業務經歷了典型的第四季度季節性因素，但從第三季度到第四季度，包裝和消費者銷售額分別僅下降了 4% 和 3%。再加上年初的訂單趨勢和客戶的見解，讓我們相信這些領域的去庫存已基本結束，訂單更反映了潛在需求。

We discussed the healthcare end market in detail in our last quarterly earnings call. While fourth-quarter sales in healthcare were down 9% year over year, the pace of destocking has also started to slow. Q4 sales were up sequentially 3% from Q3. Fundamentally, the underlying demand from consumers for healthcare applications remained steady. Examples include the increased use of self-injection pens for drug delivery, continuous glucose monitors to manage diabetes, as well as catheters and tubings used in surgeries. And while some of our healthcare customers continue to manage their inventory levels to start the year. we expect to see improvement in demand as we progress through 2024.

我們在上一季的財報電話會議中詳細討論了醫療保健終端市場。儘管第四季醫療保健銷售額年減 9%，但去庫存的步伐也開始放緩。第四季銷售額較第三季成長 3%。從根本上講，消費者對醫療保健應用的潛在需求保持穩定。例如，越來越多地使用自註射筆進行藥物輸送、使用連續血糖監測儀來管理糖尿病，以及手術中使用的導管和管子。儘管我們的一些醫療保健客戶在年初繼續管理庫存水準。我們預計，隨著 2024 年的進展，需求將會有所改善。

In industries which are sensitive to interest rates and are more capital intensive such as building and construction and industrial, we do see continued softness both from destocking and overall demand. There are new business gains in composite applications replacing conventional building materials which should provide some offset to the industrial and building and construction end markets.

在對利率敏感且資本密集度較高的行業，例如建築業和工業，我們確實看到去庫存和整體需求持續疲軟。取代傳統建築材料的複合材料應用帶來了新的業務收益，這應該會為工業和建築終端市場提供一些抵消。

Telecommunications was the weakest end market for us in the fourth quarter, and we expect softness to continue in the first half of 2024. Rising interest rates and destocking have definitely impacted demand here as has the delayed timing of projects flowing from the BEAD program. Jamie will cover more details on this topic when we discuss SCM's performance.

電信是我們第四季最疲軟的終端市場，我們預計 2024 年上半年將繼續疲軟。利率上升和去庫存肯定影響了這裡的需求，BEAD 計劃項目的延遲也是如此。當我們討論 SCM 的性能時，Jamie 將介紹有關此主題的更多詳細資訊。

Rounding out the end markets, sales in defense applications continue to be strong as demand remains high in light of continued geopolitical tensions and recent conflicts overseas. The primary growth is in personal protection where Dyneema plays a significant role, protecting soldiers with ballistics vest helmets.

在終端市場中，由於持續的地緣政治緊張局勢和最近的海外衝突，需求仍然很高，國防應用的銷售繼續強勁。主要的成長是在個人防護領域，迪尼瑪發揮重要作用，用防彈背心頭盔保護士兵。

Moving on to the regional observations. Each of the regions have different fundamentals that have resulted in varying performance in 2023, and will continue to influence how we look ahead to 2024. Starting with our largest region, we expect the US and Canada to continue to improve as the year progresses given consumer sentiment appears to be resilient despite higher interest rates. This region does have slightly more exposure to healthcare, which implies potentially sluggish growth in the near term but should ultimately drive greater growth as destocking ends.

繼續進行區域觀察。每個地區都有不同的基本面，導致 2023 年的表現各不相同，並將繼續影響我們對 2024 年的展望。從我們最大的地區開始，我們預計隨著時間的推移，美國和加拿大的經濟狀況將繼續改善，因為儘管利率上升，但消費者信心似乎仍具有彈性。該地區的醫療保健業務確實略多，這意味著短期內成長可能會緩慢，但隨著去庫存結束，最終應該會推動更大的成長。

Telecommunications will also be a significant tailwind once destocking ends and when the federal funding is fully allocated to states to expand the installation of fiber optic cable under the BEAD program. In EMEA, demand remains stable with consumer staying cautious due to prolonged geopolitical issues, higher interest rates, and the lack of government stimulus or infrastructure spending compared to other regions. However, defense is a bright spot, and destocking appears to have ended for packaging, which is the largest end market in the region.

一旦去庫存結束，並且當聯邦資金完全分配給各州以擴大 BEAD 計劃下的光纖電纜安裝時，電信也將成為一個重要的推動力。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，與其他地區相比，由於長期地緣政治問題、較高的利率以及缺乏政府刺激或基礎設施支出，消費者保持謹慎，需求保持穩定。然而，國防是一個亮點，包裝產業的去庫存似乎已經結束，而包裝產業是該地區最大的終端市場。

In Asia, our outlook remains cautious due to uncertainties in the China economy, and it remains to be seen how the new government stimulus package will translate to spurring the economy in 2024. While Latin America only represents 5% of our business, we do view it as an important region, not only to tap into local market opportunities, but also as a region where our global customers look towards shifting production. Our sales were up year over year in Latin America in the fourth quarter in our largest end-market packaging, and we expect that momentum to continue into 2024.

在亞洲，由於中國經濟的不確定性，我們的前景仍然保持謹慎，新的政府刺激計畫將如何轉化為刺激 2024 年的經濟仍有待觀察。雖然拉丁美洲僅占我們業務的 5%，但我們確實將其視為一個重要的地區，不僅可以挖掘當地市場機會，也是我們的全球客戶尋求轉移生產的地區。第四季度，我們在拉丁美洲最大的終端市場包裝的銷售額將年增，我們預計這一勢頭將持續到 2024 年。

With that, I will now hand it off to Jamie who will discuss our fourth-quarter results as well as our initial outlook for 2024.

現在，我將把它交給 Jamie，他將討論我們第四季度的表現以及我們對 2024 年的初步展望。

Thank you, Ashish. Your overview provides good context to now dive deeper into our results.

謝謝你，阿什什。您的概述為現在深入了解我們的結果提供了良好的背景。

As Ashish mentioned earlier, we delivered adjusted EPS of $0.52, exceeding our guidance of $0.47. This was driven by a slight beat in sales and favorable net interest expense. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA margins of 15.9% was also slightly ahead of our guidance and reflects a 240-basis-point improvement versus the prior year. This margin expansion was driven by favorable mix, deflating input costs, and prudent cost management. Favorable mix came from improving demand in packaging and consumer end markets as well as certain applications in our composites platform such as defense. Regionally, Europe was a key contributor to the margin expansion and drove a year-over-year earnings growth in the quarter.

正如 Ashish 之前提到的，我們的調整後每股收益為 0.52 美元，超過了 0.47 美元的指導值。這是由銷售略有增長和有利的淨利息支出所推動的。第四季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.9%，也略高於我們的指引，與前一年相比提高了 240 個基點。這種利潤率的成長是由有利的組合、降低投入成本和審慎的成本管理所推動的。有利的組合來自包裝和消費終端市場需求的改善以及我們複合材料平台中的某些應用（例如國防）。從地區來看，歐洲是利潤率擴張的主要貢獻者，並推動了本季獲利年增。

Looking at performance versus the prior-year fourth quarter, sales were down 9% mostly due to weaker demand with some offset in price and mix and a marginal benefit from FX. Ultimately, our ability to price effectively, capture deflation, and manage costs allowed us to grow EBITDA by 7% and adjusted EPS by 24%.

從去年第四季的業績來看，銷售額下降了 9%，主要是由於需求疲軟，價格和產品組合以及外匯帶來的邊際收益抵消了一定影響。最終，我們有效定價、應對通貨緊縮和管理成本的能力使我們的 EBITDA 增長了 7%，調整後每股收益增長了 24%。

From a segment perspective, color additives and inks grew EBITDA 20% in the quarter, driven by the earnings improvement in Europe. As we discussed before, many of the remaining cost synergies related to the clearing acquisition were to come from Europe as we rationalized operations and adjusted staffing levels. These cost reductions helped the bottom line as well as the impact of raw material deflation. Color also benefited from improving demand in consumer and packaging market, which has a favorable impact on mix for the segment.

從細分市場來看，在歐洲獲利改善的推動下，色彩添加劑和油墨本季 EBITDA 成長了 20%。正如我們之前討論的，隨著我們對營運進行合理化並調整人員配置水平，與清算收購相關的許多剩餘成本協同效應將來自歐洲。這些成本降低有助於提高利潤並緩解原材料通貨緊縮的影響。顏色也受益於消費者和包裝市場需求的改善，這對該細分市場的組合產生了有利的影響。

The specialty engineered materials segment was down $6 million in EBITDA from the prior-year quarter, and $5 million of this reduction is due to exposure in the telecommunications end markets where demand was significantly down. Specifically, this impacted our Fiber-Line business that provides composite applications used in fiber optic cables. This end market has been impacted by inventory destocking and timing of the funding related to the BEAD program. For those who aren't familiar, BEAD, also known as broadband, equity, access, and deployment is a $42 billion program to expand high-speed Internet access by funding infrastructure and adoption programs in the US. State submitted plans to the government, and approval is imminent.

特種工程材料部門的 EBITDA 比去年同期減少了 600 萬美元，其中 500 萬美元的減少是由於電信終端市場的需求大幅下降所致。具體來說，這影響了我們提供光纖電纜複合應用的光纖線路業務。此終端市場受到庫存去庫存和與 BEAD 計劃相關的融資時間的影響。對於那些不熟悉的人來說，BEAD（也稱為寬頻、股權、接入和部署）是一項價值420 億美元的計劃，旨在透過資助美國的基礎設施和採用計劃來擴大高速網路接入。國家已向政府提交計劃，即將獲得批准。

We anticipate fiber optic cable demand to improve in the second half of 2024, as the states begin receiving funds for their broadband deployment projects and then become more significant in 2025. Similar to color, SCM also benefited from raw material deflation and favorable mix driven by certain composite applications in the building and construction space as well as in defense. These items, along with cost actions, partially offset the reduction in demand.

我們預計，隨著各州開始為其寬頻部署專案獲得資金，光纖電纜需求將在 2024 年下半年有所改善，並在 2025 年變得更加重要。與顏色類似，SCM 也受益於原材料通貨緊縮以及由建築和建築空間以及國防領域的某些複合材料應用驅動的有利混合。這些項目以及成本行動部分抵銷了需求的減少。

Moving to the fourth quarter EBITDA bridge, we highlight the impact of demand, price and mix, as well as raw material costs on a year-over-year basis. Starting with demand, it is down less compared to previous quarters as the pace of destocking slowed in most end markets. Also highlighted on this bridge is the impact of pricing and deflation, which more than offset lower demand. This is the third consecutive quarter we've seen raw material deflation on a year-over-year basis, and we expect that to continue as we start 2024.

轉向第四季度 EBITDA 橋樑，我們強調需求、價格和組合以及原材料成本同比的影響。從需求開始，由於大多數終端市場去庫存的步伐放緩，與前幾季相比降幅較小。這座橋上也強調了定價和通貨緊縮的影響，足以抵消需求下降的影響。這是我們連續第三個季度看到原材料同比下降，我們預計這種情況在 2024 年開始時將持續下去。

Further down, you'll also see the impact of certain cost reduction activities that were initiated at the beginning of 2023, including targeted European restructuring and reduced discretionary spend, which provided us $13 million benefit in the quarter. These cost control efforts more than offset wage inflation. All in all, we were able to grow EBITDA 7% despite sales being down 9% for the quarter.

再往下看，您還會看到 2023 年初啟動的某些成本削減活動的影響，包括有針對性的歐洲重組和減少可自由支配支出，這在本季度帶來了 1300 萬美元的收益。這些成本控制措施足以抵銷工資上漲的影響。總而言之，儘管本季銷售額下降 9%，但我們的 EBITDA 仍實現了 7% 的成長。

Turning to 2024, we're providing guidance today for the first quarter and full year. We expect Q1 earnings per share of $0.68, which would reflect an 8% increase over the prior year. This takes into account the end market and regional trends Ashish commented on earlier. To reiterate, we are seeing improving trends in our largest end markets, packaging and consumer, and strong demand for defense applications. Balancing this is the continued destocking in telecommunications and healthcare as well as end markets that are more sensitive to higher interest rates such as building and construction and transportation.

展望 2024 年，我們今天提供第一季和全年的指導。我們預計第一季每股收益為 0.68 美元，較上年增長 8%。這考慮到了 Ashish 之前評論的終端市場和區域趨勢。重申一下，我們看到我們最大的終端市場、包裝和消費者市場的趨勢正在改善，以及對國防應用的強勁需求。平衡這一點的是電信和醫療保健以及對利率上升更為敏感的終端市場（例如建築和交通運輸）的持續去庫存。

On a full-year basis, we anticipate adjusted earnings per share between $2.40 to $2.65 and adjusted EBITDA of $505 million to $535 million. We are providing a range to account for different scenarios of how demand could ultimately play out in 2024. We are optimistic that demand in the US will strengthen as destocking comes to an end across all end markets. We also see growth in emerging regions such as Southeast Asia and Latin America, though we are more conservative on our view of China since their growth will be dependent on increased consumer spending and sentiments.

在全年基礎上，我們預計調整後每股收益為 2.40 至 2.65 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 5.05 億至 5.35 億美元。我們提供了一個範圍來解釋 2024 年需求最終如何發揮的不同情境。我們樂觀地認為，隨著所有終端市場去庫存的結束，美國的需求將會增強。我們也看到東南亞和拉丁美洲等新興地區的成長，但我們對中國的看法更為保守，因為它們的成長將取決於消費者支出和情緒的增加。

Lastly, Europe's underlying demand is likely to be muted, but we can confidently say destocking is done, and we believe sustainable solutions, especially in packaging, will help us grow year over year. We do expect raw material deflation to provide a benefit in the first half of the year. Conversely, in the back half, we have some headwinds associated with an incentive reset. Interest expense is expected to be between $105 million and $110 million in 2024. This is slightly lower than 2023 based on the most recent silver curves and the full-year benefit of $100 million paydown that we did in August of last year.

最後，歐洲的潛在需求可能會減弱，但我們可以自信地說去庫存已經完成，我們相信可持續的解決方案，特別是包裝方面的解決方案，將幫助我們逐年成長。我們確實預期原料通貨緊縮將在今年上半年帶來好處。相反，在後半段，我們遇到了一些與激勵重置相關的阻力。2024 年利息支出預計將在 1.05 億美元至 1.1 億美元之間。根據最新的白銀曲線和我們去年 8 月支付的 1 億美元的全年收益，這略低於 2023 年。

In addition, we expect our effective tax rate to be between 23% and 25%. We are taking a balanced view of 2024, where we are optimistic that demand will improve, but also mindful that there are certain economic factors that could influence particular end markets and regions.

此外，我們預計有效稅率在 23% 至 25% 之間。我們對 2024 年持平衡看法，我們樂觀地認為需求將會改善，但也注意到某些經濟因素可能會影響特定的終端市場和地區。

Before we open the lines for questions, I'll now turn the call back over to Ashish for a few closing remarks.

在我們開始提問之前，我現在將把電話轉回給阿什什，讓他做一些結束語。

Thank you, Jamie. I'm very pleased that we finished the year better than expected, and we view that as positive news as we head into 2024. It has been a couple of months since I joined Avient, and I have spent much of my time in great discussions with investors, customers, and employees, digging into our businesses' portfolio and the innovation pipeline. Timing was perfect in that just two weeks ago, we hosted our annual leadership conference, where we brought together our top 150 leaders to engage and align on expectations as well as increase collaboration across businesses. Among my many encouraging takeaways from the conference is that we have a customer-focused team that loves to win and is fully committed to doing so going forward.

謝謝你，傑米。我很高興我們今年的業績好於預期，我們認為這是進入 2024 年的正面消息。我加入 Avient 已有幾個月了，我花了很多時間與投資者、客戶和員工進行深入討論，深入研究我們的業務組合和創新管道。時機恰到好處，就在兩週前，我們舉辦了年度領導力會議，匯集了 150 名頂尖領導者，共同參與和調整期望，並加強跨企業合作。我從這次會議中得到的許多令人鼓舞的收穫之一是，我們擁有一支以客戶為中心的團隊，熱愛勝利，並完全致力於向前邁進。

What's next for me is to continue having robust dialogue with our many stakeholders. Given the diversity of our customer base and technology portfolio, these conversations are proving to be extremely valuable as we further evolve how and where we serve our current and future customers to profitably grow our business, which leads me to a few top-of-mind things that will become core themes of our thinking as we evolve our strategy.

我下一步要做的是繼續與我們的眾多利害關係人進行積極的對話。鑑於我們的客戶群和技術組合的多樣性，這些對話被證明是非常有價值的，因為我們進一步發展我們為當前和未來的客戶提供服務的方式和地點，以實現業務的盈利增長，這讓我想到了一些首要問題隨著我們制定策略，這些事情將成為我們思考的核心主題。

First is driving profitable organic topline growth while expanding our margins on the bottom line. We have ample opportunities to drive profitable growth by focusing on our customers, leveraging secular trends, combining our technology platforms, and winning share in the marketplace. The second is amplifying innovation. This is an area of great interest and opportunity as well. Robust customer-driven innovation is near and dear to my heart, not just because of my background, but because I've seen first hand how it powers business and delivers growth and margin expansion.

首先是推動獲利性有機營收成長，同時擴大利潤率。透過專注於客戶、利用長期趨勢、結合我們的技術平台並贏得市場份額，我們有充足的機會來推動獲利成長。二是加大創新力道。這也是一個充滿興趣和機會的領域。強大的客戶驅動型創新是我的心頭好，不僅因為我的背景，還因為我親眼目睹了它如何推動業務、實現成長和利潤擴張。

We are an innovative company and, in our future, we will be even more so. And the third is around continuing to build and invest in our leadership and people. Avient has a highly competitive and collaborative culture. We live our brand of challenge accepted and embrace the work required to deliver on those challenges.

我們是一家創新公司，在未來，我們將會更加如此。第三是繼續建立和投資我們的領導和員工。Avient 擁有高度競爭和協作的文化。我們接受挑戰，並接受應對這些挑戰所需的工作。

Our next chapter of Avient will challenge us in new and exciting ways, so we will continue to ensure our teams are prepared for future success. Again, I will have more to share as our strategy and plans are built out. But let me close with this, in my short time here thus far, it has clearly solidified my very first impressions that Avient is a fundamentally strong company, and we have significant growth ahead of us.

Avient 的下一章將以令人興奮的新方式向我們提出挑戰，因此我們將繼續確保我們的團隊為未來的成功做好準備。再次強調，隨著我們的策略和計劃的製定，我將有更多內容要分享。但讓我結束這一點，到目前為止，在我任職的短暫時間裡，它顯然鞏固了我的第一印象：Avient 是一家本質上很強大的公司，我們面前有顯著的成長。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Jamie and I are happy to answer any of your questions now.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。傑米和我現在很高興回答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

（操作員指令）Michael Sison，富國銀行。

Congrats again to you, Bob, on your time. I guess, my first question, for '24, can you give us a thought of the range of sales growth for '24 relative to the guidance, the low end, bottom end? And maybe when do you think volumes will sort of inflect and turn positive?

鮑勃，再次祝賀你抽出時間。我想，我的第一個問題是，對於 24 年，您能給我們考慮一下 24 年相對於指導、低端、底端的銷售增長範圍嗎？也許您認為成交量什麼時候會有所變化並轉為正值？

Sure, Mike. Let me just answer that one to start with, and then Jamie will add to it. Actually, if you look at -- we are probably -- as you heard in the prepared remarks, we are not providing guidance on the sales per se, but to get to the estimates that we have provided on the range, you will see that you will need sales to grow from low-single digits to mid-single digits as a total range.

當然，麥克。讓我先回答這個問題，然後傑米會補充。事實上，如果你看看——我們可能是——正如你在準備好的評論中聽到的那樣，我們並沒有提供銷售本身的指導，而是為了獲得我們提供的關於該範圍的估計，你會看到您需要將銷售額從低個位數成長到中個位數。

With respect to your second part of the question on inflection point, I think it's a story of first half, second half as we see it. I think it's going to be a pretty flattish first half if you ask me, and then most of the demand growth is built into the second part.

關於拐點問題的第二部分，我認為這是一個我們認為的上半場、下半場的故事。如果你問我的話，我認為上半年將相當平淡，然後大部分需求成長都集中在下半年。

So Jamie, would you like to add something?

傑米，你想補充一下嗎？

Yeah. So Mike, I think we tried to describe in the call today the first half in particular, as we take a look at telecom and health healthcare, where we still see discontinued destocking. I think that's the reason why we believe that the first half will be slower than the second half in terms of volume recovery. But we do see some dynamics within the market in particular. If we look at defense and telecom potentially coming back, the back half will be stronger overall. And hopefully that gives you some further clarity on how we think sales could evolve for the year.

是的。麥克，我認為我們試圖在今天的電話會議中特別描述上半年的情況，因為我們審視了電信和醫療保健領域，我們仍然看到停止去庫存。我認為這就是我們認為上半年成交量恢復速度將慢於下半年的原因。但我們確實看到了市場內部的一些動態。如果我們考慮國防和電信業的潛在復甦，後半部整體會更強。希望這能讓您進一步清楚地了解我們認為今年的銷售額將如何發展。

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. Ashish, when you think about -- I know it's still a little bit early, but when you think about sort of the longer term earnings power for Avient, any initial thoughts of where the EBITDA could get back to in terms of our firm recovery over the next couple of years?

知道了。然後進行快速跟進。Ashish，當你想到時——我知道現在還為時過早，但是當你想到 Avient 的長期盈利能力時，任何關於 EBITDA 可以在我們公司復甦方面恢復到什麼程度的初步想法未來幾年？

Yeah, Mike. I think a couple of things here. One is that in near term, as we pointed out, our growth drivers, the four growth drivers of sustainable solutions, composites, healthcare, and the emerging regions are going to be a catalyst for not just growth because they are in high-growth markets growing at 5%-plus end market, but also for margin expansion because they're accretive to the margin. So I think that will help the EBITDA percentages to get better as that pie grows. So right now, those four growth drivers are 60% of the revenue, and so as they continue to grow, they'll become bigger piece of the pie and create more value.

是的，麥克。我想這裡有幾件事。一是，正如我們所指出的，短期內，我們的成長動力，永續解決方案、複合材料、醫療保健和新興地區的四個成長動力將不僅僅是成長的催化劑，因為它們位於高成長市場終端市場成長超過5%，而且還可以擴大利潤，因為它們可以增加利潤。因此，我認為隨著蛋糕的不斷擴大，這將有助於 EBITDA 百分比變得更好。目前，這四個成長動力佔收入的 60%，隨著它們的持續成長，它們將成為更大的蛋糕並創造更多價值。

Then on top of that, in the near term, we can augment that growth further by really notching up cross-selling and collaboration across businesses as well as replication at scale which means really how fast can we replicate our success with one customer at other places with scale, especially with some OEM accounts. That's a great opportunity for us.

最重要的是，在短期內，我們可以透過真正加強跨業務的交叉銷售和協作以及大規模複製來進一步擴大這種增長，這意味著我們能夠以多快的速度在其他地方複製與一個客戶的成功具有規模，特別是對於一些 OEM 客戶。這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。

And then on top of that, over time, we can build the new growth vectors which could be coming from markets which are growing fast. There's lots happening in the world of technology, in the world of regulatory, and so on and so forth. And so those create opportunities for us because materials will play a big piece as those technologies are getting realized. And so for us, it is finding a couple of more growth vectors that will scale where our technology portfolio is relevant and where we have access to the customer. So I think a combination of those three things that I mentioned would give us not just growth, but also good margin expansion because it will be differentiated.

最重要的是，隨著時間的推移，我們可以建立新的成長向量，這些成長向量可能來自快速成長的市場。技術領域、監管領域等發生了很多事情。因此，這些為我們創造了機會，因為隨著這些技術的實現，材料將發揮重要作用。因此，對我們來說，它正在尋找更多的成長載體，這些載體將在我們的技術組合相關性以及我們能夠接觸到客戶的地方進行擴展。因此，我認為我提到的這三件事的結合不僅會為我們帶來成長，而且還會帶來良好的利潤率擴張，因為它將是差異化的。

Got it.

知道了。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Hi, guys. It's Aziza on for Frank. For my first question, I was wondering, following these recent years of notable portfolio transformation that the company has undergone, how should we be thinking about capital allocation priorities for this year and maybe the next year?

嗨，大家好。阿齊扎替補弗蘭克。對於我的第一個問題，我想知道，在公司近年來經歷了顯著的投資組合轉型之後，我們應該如何考慮今年甚至明年的資本配置優先事項？

So Aziza, thanks for the question. As you've heard in my prepared remarks, one of our top priorities is to grow topline growth organically profitably, and so I think that sets the starting point for our capital allocation strategy as well. We will invest more in organic part than than we have been. And as we are identifying new growth vectors, that will need more our resources, not just R&D, but also commercial as well as operational side.

阿齊扎，謝謝你的提問。正如您在我準備好的演講中所聽到的那樣，我們的首要任務之一是實現有機盈利增長，因此我認為這也為我們的資本配置策略奠定了起點。我們將比以往更多地投資於有機部分。當我們正在尋找新的成長載體時，這將需要我們更多的資源，不僅是研發資源，還包括商業和營運方面的資源。

But I think organic growth will be our top priority. On the M&A side, we have done a great job for the portfolio piece that Bob mentioned in his remarks. And we are still integrating the two big acquisitions we did in the last three years. So in the near term, I don't see any big acquisitions on the horizon, but I would not rule out acquisitions per se.

但我認為有機成長將是我們的首要任務。在併購方面，我們在鮑伯在演講中提到的投資組合部分做得很好。我們仍在整合過去三年中進行的兩項大型收購。因此，在短期內，我認為不會有任何大型收購，但我不排除收購本身。

We have a cadence on M&A. And if any acquisitions are done, they will be smaller in size and probably bolt-on. And then, of course, our commitment to giving back to shareholders on dividends is there. We expand the dividends as our earnings will grow. That commitment is there.

我們有併購的節奏。如果進行任何收購，它們的規模將會更小，而且可能是補充性的。當然，我們也承諾以股利回饋股東。隨著收入的成長，我們會增加股息。這種承諾就在那裡。

And then finally, we have been paying debt, and over the last 15 months, we have paid $300 million of debt. And as our earnings grow and demand comes back, we will have flexibility in either paying the debt back or buying back shares. So those decisions can be made at our element.

最後，我們一直在償還債務，在過去 15 個月裡，我們已經償還了 3 億美元的債務。隨著我們的收入成長和需求回升，我們將可以靈活地償還債務或回購股票。因此，這些決定可以由我們自行決定。

And Aziza, I think you know this, but we have a lot of flexibility when it comes to potentially either paying down debt or share repurchases because we don't have any near-term maturities until 2025, as well as we don't have any restrictive debt covenants. So we have a lot of flexibility in our capital structure to be able to pivot as we see opportunities in the marketplace.

阿齊扎，我想你知道這一點，但在償還債務或回購股票方面，我們有很大的靈活性，因為我們在 2025 年之前沒有任何近期到期日，而且我們也沒有任何限制性債務契約。因此，我們的資本結構具有很大的靈活性，能夠在我們看到市場機會時進行調整。

Perfect. And then the commentary on end markets and geographies is helpful thinking of the full-year guidance. I was wondering if it would be possible to break down that EBITDA $505 million to $535 million for some of the other underlying assumptions as far as net price benefit, cost inflation just for the full year, how you guys think about FX, and just some of the other underlying bridge items for 2024 EBITDA?

完美的。然後，對終端市場和地區的評論有助於思考全年指導。我想知道是否有可能將 EBITDA 5.05 億美元分解為 5.35 億美元，以考慮其他一些基本假設，例如淨價收益、全年成本通膨、你們對外匯的看法等等。2024 年 EpITDA 的其他基礎過渡項目是什麼？

Sure. So I'll start. So Aziza, one of the things that has been factored into our guidance, one, is to what Ashish mentioned earlier to Mike is probably low- to mid-single-digit topline growth first half versus second half dynamics, which he explained. We do expect raw material deflation in the first half and a little bit of an unknown in the second half, depending on how market conditions roll out. But that's probably $20 million to $30 million in the first half.

當然。那我就開始吧。因此，阿齊扎（Aziza），我們的指導中考慮的因素之一，是阿什什（Ashish）之前向麥克提到的，與下半年的動態相比，上半年的營收成長可能為低至中個位數，他解釋。我們確實預期上半年原料通貨緊縮，下半年會出現一些未知數，取決於市場狀況如何發展。但這在上半年可能是 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元。

And we mentioned this on the call. In the back half, we do have some headwinds with regards to incentives being reset. So that's something else to consider in the range. But those are the primary factors.

我們在電話中提到了這一點。在後半段，我們確實在激勵措施重置方面遇到了一些阻力。所以這是該範圍內需要考慮的其他事情。但這些是主要因素。

You mentioned FX. There's not going to be a whole lot of FX dynamics. I know the euro has strengthened from '23 to '24, but we also see some other currencies that have weakened against the US dollar like the Chinese yuan. That's basically going to offset most of that.

你提到了外匯。不會有太多的外匯動態。我知道歐元從「23」到「24」有所走強，但我們也看到其他一些貨幣兌美元匯率有所走弱，例如人民幣。這基本上可以抵消大部分。

Got it.

知道了。

Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

麥克·哈里森，海港研究夥伴。

Congrats on the new role, Ashish, and congrats on the national title, Bob.

恭喜獲得新角色 Ashish，並恭喜全國冠軍 Bob。

Finally. Thank you.

最後。謝謝。

I was wondering if we could maybe dig in a little bit more on the improvement that you've seen in the destocking trends in packaging and consumer. Would you say that the trends have been exactly the same in both of those markets? Maybe just a little more color on what you were seeing in Q4 and maybe what order patterns are looking like and what customers are saying so far in Q1.

我想知道我們是否可以進一步深入了解您在包裝和消費者去庫存趨勢中看到的改善。您是否認為這兩個市場的趨勢完全相同？也許只是對您在第四季度看到的情況以及第一季到目前為止的訂單模式以及客戶所說的內容有更多的了解。

Yeah. Maybe I'll start, and if Jamie would like to add, she can do that. I think Q4 to Q -- As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, right, the packaging and consumer declined slower than what we would see in typical seasonality from Q3 to Q4. So that was a positive of course. And then as we are looking into Q1 and how things are shaping up, we are seeing that those trends are continuing in the right direction. So we feel like we are -- we feel pretty good that most of the destocking is over in packaging and consumer markets.

是的。也許我會開始，如果傑米願意補充，她可以這麼做。我認為第四季到第四季——正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，包裝和消費者的下降速度比我們在第三季到第四季的典型季節性中看到的要慢。所以這當然是正面的。然後，當我們研究第一季以及事情的發展時，我們發現這些趨勢正在繼續朝著正確的方向發展。所以我們感覺——我們感覺很好，包裝和消費市場的大部分去庫存已經結束。

With respect to geographies, I think we still see some slowness in the European market with packaging and consumer, although the destocking is over, but demand side is a little bit slower. But the rest of the world, we are seeing underlying demand to keep moving in the right direction going forward.

就地區而言，我認為歐洲市場的包裝和消費仍然有些緩慢，儘管去庫存已經結束，但需求方面有點慢。但在世界其他地區，我們看到了繼續朝著正確方向前進的潛在需求。

So Mike, to add on to Ashish's comment, the packaging was down 5% on a year-over-year basis, which is a significant improvement from where we have been trending for 2023. And as we look forward to Q1, we expect that to become even a lower variance on a year-over-year basis. Consumer was down 12% in the fourth quarter.

Mike，補充 Ashish 的評論，包裝年減了 5%，這與我們 2023 年的趨勢相比有了顯著改善。當我們展望第一季時，我們預計同比差異將會更低。第四季消費者下降了 12%。

Although we believe destocking has come to an end, I do think that the demand associated with consumers is really not so much about restocking but just lower inventory levels to manage lower demand. And then if we take a look specifically in China, that's where we see some weakness in consumer, which is not to be unexpected. It's because of that sentiment that's in that region.

儘管我們認為去庫存已經結束，但我確實認為與消費者相關的需求實際上並不是重新庫存，而是降低庫存水準以管理較低的需求。如果我們專門看看中國，我們會發現消費者存在一些弱點，這並不奇怪。這是因為該地區存在這種情緒。

All right. That's very helpful. And then, Ashish, you're coming from a company with a much larger R&D organization with a lot of great capabilities. I know it's early days, but can you talk a little bit about what you see within the Avient R&D organization that you think they're doing well and maybe what areas you might look to improve?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，阿什什，你來自一家擁有更大研發組織、擁有許多強大能力的公司。我知道現在還為時過早，但您能談談您在 Avient 研發組織中看到的您認為他們做得很好的方面以及您可能想要改進的領域嗎？

Although I come from a big company, I can tell you Avient is pretty strong with processes and R&D capabilities as well. The biggest thing that R&D can do really good is focusing on the customer and starting from there to innovate, and I think that's one thing that Avient gets very well. So I'm really impressed with the customer focus this team has. The connection of technology portfolios over time with different acquisitions has given us many building blocks now that we can start putting together, mixing and matching, collaborating across businesses to create more value than what we have been doing in the past. That's an opportunity for us going forward.

雖然我來自大公司，但我可以告訴你，Avient的製程和研發能力也很強。研發真正能做的最重要的事情就是專注於客戶並從那裡開始創新，我認為這是 Avient 做得很好的一件事。因此，這個團隊對客戶的關注給我留下了深刻的印象。隨著時間的推移，技術組合與不同收購的聯繫為我們提供了許多構建模組，現在我們可以開始組合、混合和匹配，跨業務合作，創造比過去更多的價值。這對我們來說是一個前進的機會。

All right.

好的。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大，杰弗里斯。

It's Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. So you mentioned that raw material costs are deflating in the first half, is that going to be followed by some price givebacks to your customers?

丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo) 替補勞倫斯 (Laurence)。您提到上半年原物料成本下降，接下來是否會對您的客戶進行一些價格回饋？

So we don't see -- From our perspective, we see that the team has done a good job maintaining the pricing discipline even as things have begun to normalize, so we don't see much impact of a pricing decrease on revenue. If there is anything, it's going to be very isolated and minimal in nature. We feel like we create differentiation by bringing value to the customers. And that gives us a little bit more sticking power and competitive advantage versus our competition.

所以我們沒有看到——從我們的角度來看，我們看到團隊在維持定價紀律方面做得很好，即使事情已經開始正常化，所以我們認為定價下降對收入沒有太大影響。如果有什麼的話，它本質上也將是非常孤立和最小的。我們覺得我們透過為客戶帶來價值來創造差異化。與競爭對手相比，這給了我們更多的堅持力和競爭優勢。

Okay, great. And then as volumes turn positive and potentially accelerate, how should we think about incremental margins in the two different segments?

好的，太好了。然後，隨著銷售轉正並可能加速，我們應該如何考慮這兩個不同細分市場的增量利潤？

So on the CAI side, the color side, we should expect incremental margins just because we have done a lot of good work there with respect to driving synergies, but also the cost reductions and things like that. So that should translate into -- and we are seeing in fourth quarter, the results that Jamie showed, how strong the margin was. And the team has done a great job on cost reduction, maintaining price discipline and also margin expansion.

因此，在 CAI 方面、色彩方面，我們應該期待利潤率的增加，因為我們在推動協同效應方面做了很多出色的工作，而且還降低了成本等。因此，這應該轉化為——我們在第四季度看到傑米展示的結果，利潤率有多強。該團隊在降低成本、維持價格紀律以及擴大利潤率方面做得非常出色。

So on the SCM side, margin expansion story will depend on what happens to the destocking story on the telecom side, what happens to the destocking story on the healthcare side, but also how strong the demand for Dyneema remains which, as you know, is pretty accretive to our margins. So all those three things would play a big important mix to define the margins on the SCM side. And then that, of course, determines the total margin for the company as well.

因此，在供應鏈管理方面，利潤擴張的故事將取決於電信方面的去庫存故事的情況，醫療保健方面的去庫存故事的情況，以及對迪尼瑪的需求仍然有多強勁，正如你所知，相當增加我們的利潤。因此，所有這三件事將在定義 SCM 方面的利潤方面發揮重要作用。當然，這也決定了公司的總利潤率。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer & Co.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默公司

Great. Thank you. Good morning, and I'll express my thanks also to you, Bob, and congratulations, Ashish. I wanted to ask about the free cash flow outlook for next year. I mean, as you are talking about a potential return to growth seeing some of the mix benefits and then some of the working capital that you've been carrying over the last couple of years, just how we should think about free cash flow in the context of return to growth?

偉大的。謝謝。早安，我還要向你表示感謝，鮑勃，並祝賀你，阿什什。我想問一下明年的自由現金流前景。我的意思是，當您談論潛在的成長回報時，看到一些混合效益，然後看到過去幾年您一直持有的一些營運資本，我們應該如何考慮自由現金流恢復成長的背景？

Yeah. Great question, Kristen. So there's a couple different dynamics on the cash flow just to take into consideration. So to return to growth, we would expect a cash used in working capital. A good way to think about that in your models is, we do have about a 12% working capital run rate. We expect that to continue. And the team has done a really great job managing inventory in light of sales being more uncertain. So that's going to be one of the factors that will be used for this coming year.

是的。好問題，克里斯汀。因此，現金流有幾個不同的動態需要考慮。因此，為了恢復成長，我們預期現金將用於營運資本。在您的模型中考慮這一點的一個好方法是，我們確實有大約 12% 的營運資金運行率。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。鑑於銷售更加不確定，該團隊在庫存管理方面做得非常出色。因此，這將是明年使用的因素之一。

Another dynamic, what you saw in the guidance slide, is that our capital expenditures will move up to $140 million. We did about $120 million last year. The increase is really primarily focused on certain IT investments to drive greater productivity, efficiency, as well as to use data. And that's really centered around the S/4 Hana implementation that will begin this year and will go into the next couple of years. And we gave information on the tax rate as well as interest, so that should give you the primary components as we think about free cash flow for the year.

您在指導幻燈片中看到的另一個動態是我們的資本支出將增加至 1.4 億美元。去年我們做了大約1.2億美元。這一成長實際上主要集中在某些 IT 投資上，以提高生產力、效率以及數據的使用。這實際上以 S/4 Hana 實施為中心，該實施將於今年開始並將持續到未來幾年。我們提供了有關稅率和利息的信息，因此當我們考慮今年的自由現金流時，這應該為您提供主要組成部分。

Okay, that's great. I did want to ask about that CapEx number. So thank you for the context there. Somewhat of a related question to sort of investment for growth and organic growth opportunities and, Ashish, you mentioned in your prepared remarks particularly around Latin America. And as we are thinking about some of the near-shoring trends, can you just help us understand the market positioning in Latin America, how you're positioning to capture some of those trends?

好的，太好了。我確實想問一下資本支出數字。所以謝謝你提供的背景。這是一個與成長投資和有機成長機會相關的問題，阿什什，您在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，特別是在拉丁美洲。當我們正在考慮一些近岸趨勢時，您能否幫助我們了解拉丁美洲的市場定位，以及您如何定位以捕捉其中一些趨勢？

Actually, with respect to R&D on the organic side, if you think about Latin America specifically, the biggest markets are packaging and consumer. And so we have to work as nearshoring happens, whether that goes into whatever industry is opening, wherever our customers are opening, we have to play with them in that part of the world. And that's what gives us the speed, market-to-speed advantage. That's what give us the closeness to customer advantage and other relationships that we build.

事實上，就有機方面的研發而言，如果你具體考慮拉丁美洲，最大的市場是包裝和消費者。因此，我們必須在近岸外包發生時開展工作，無論是哪個行業正在開放，無論我們的客戶在哪裡開放，我們都必須在世界的那個地區與他們合作。這就是我們的速度、市場速度優勢的原因。這就是我們與客戶優勢和我們建立的其他關係的緊密聯繫的原因。

So I think, in the end, we follow where our customers are going. And if Latin America becomes a bigger hub, we will accordingly scale our operations and our capabilities in that part of the world as well.

所以我認為，最終我們會跟隨客戶的發展方向。如果拉丁美洲成為一個更大的中心，我們也將相應地擴大我們在該地區的業務和能力。

Great.

偉大的。

David Huang, Deutsche Bank.

黃大衛，德意志銀行。

Ashish, getting your focus on organic growth, I got two questions. One, given the service intensity your business has, should we expect a period of elevated SG&A cost given your focus to drive growth and reinvest? And then second, I think R&D historically is below 3% for Avient, is that the right level going forward?

Ashish，讓您專注於有機成長，我有兩個問題。第一，考慮到您的業務的服務強度，考慮到您專注於推動成長和再投資，我們是否應該預期銷售管理及行政費用 (SG&A) 成本會在一段時間內上升？其次，我認為 Avient 的研發歷來低於 3%，這是未來的正確水準嗎？

Service intensity, as I said, I mean, a lot is happening with respect to the world changing as the intensity is increasing. But there's also technology getting available to serve our customers better. And I think a little bit of that is what Jamie was mentioning with the S/4 Hana and utilizing data to serve customers in a more efficient way. So I don't expect our SG&A to grow bigger with respect to serve the intensity for the customers to serve our customers better.

正如我所說，服務強度，我的意思是，隨著強度的增加，世界正在發生很多變化。但也有一些技術可以更好地為我們的客戶服務。我認為 Jamie 在 S/4 Hana 中提到的一點就是利用數據以更有效的方式為客戶提供服務。因此，我不期望我們的SG&A在為客戶服務的強度方面會變得更大，以便更好地為我們的客戶服務。

I think our teams are doing a very good job in terms of really doing the best use of customer stratification and utilizing data and information to serve our customers in a more proficient way. And even technology, especially in color, for example, we are now using digital tools to turn around color matches faster with our customers from four days to two days, for example. And then I think that's a real improvement and will give us a competitive advantage. So that's just an example of how we're using technology to serve our customers better.

我認為我們的團隊在真正充分利用客戶分層以及利用數據和資訊以更熟練的方式為客戶服務方面做得非常好。甚至技術，特別是在顏色方面，例如，我們現在使用數位工具更快地與客戶進行顏色匹配，例如從四天到兩天。我認為這是一個真正的進步，並將為我們帶來競爭優勢。這只是我們如何利用科技來更好地為客戶服務的一個例子。

An the R&D at 3%, I don't think there's a magic number for R&D as a percentage. As I said right now, we are looking at how we prioritize whatever we are spending in the places where we should be spending it, which are the areas of growth for us and are we feeding them in the appropriate way. And as we've all watched strategy and build new vectors, if we need to add more, we'll do that, not just in R&D, but other parts of the organization as well because, as I said, everything has to be linked to the strategy in the end, and whatever is needed to do that, we'll put resources accordingly.

R&D 佔 3%，我認為 R&D 的百分比並不存在一個神奇的數字。正如我現在所說的，我們正在考慮如何優先考慮我們在應該花錢的地方的支出，這些是我們的成長領域，我們是否以適當的方式餵養牠們。正如我們都專注於策略並建立新的載體，如果我們需要添加更多，我們會這樣做，不僅在研發方面，而且在組織的其他部分也是如此，因為正如我所說，一切都必須聯繫起來最終的戰略，無論需要什麼，我們都會相應地投入資源。

Got it. And then on leverage, I don't think you're assuming debt paydown this year, but I think previously you had a target of 2.2 times by '24. Is that still a valid target?

知道了。然後在槓桿方面，我認為你們今年不會假設償還債務，但我認為之前你們的目標是到 24 年達到 2.2 倍。這仍然是一個有效的目標嗎？

Yeah. I mean, our goal is to get down closer to 2 times. We ended the year about 3.1 times. Based on where we're anticipating the year to end up, we'll be below that as well. And as you know, we use a net debt number. So regardless if we actually pay down debt or keep it on the balance sheet, that leverage number doesn't move, but we're committed to being closer to two times over time.

是的。我的意思是，我們的目標是接近 2 次。我們今年結束時大約是 3.1 倍。根據我們對今年結束的預期，我們也將低於該水準。如您所知，我們使用淨債務數字。因此，無論我們是否真正償還債務或將其保留在資產負債表上，槓桿數字都不會變化，但我們致力於隨著時間的推移接近兩倍。

Okay.

好的。

(Operator Instructions) Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指令）Vincent Andrews，摩根士丹利。

Hi, this is Turner Hinrichs on for Vincent. I'm wondering if you could size or just provide additional color on the opportunity for fiber optic mentioned for 2025? And what are you expecting as that ramps up in the second half of this year?

大家好，我是文森的特納辛里奇斯。我想知道您是否可以對 2025 年提到的光纖機會進行尺寸調整或提供額外的顏色？隨著今年下半年的成長，您有何預期？

So that's our telecom business specifically our Fiber-Line business, which represents about 4% of sales just to put that in context. We do expect the first half to still be in a destocking mode with some recovery in the back half. But I would say it's pretty muted. On a year-over-year basis, I don't expect there to be much growth there considering how much first half destocking we still expect there to be.

這就是我們的電信業務，特別是我們的光纖線路業務，它佔銷售額的 4% 左右。我們確實預計上半年仍處於去庫存模式，下半年將會復甦。但我想說的是，它非常安靜。與去年同期相比，考慮到我們仍預計上半年去庫存的程度，我預計該地區不會出現太大增長。

And as we look into 2025, I mean, really it's dependent on how that BEAD program is rolled out. There's a tremendous opportunity with regards to fiber optics and laying down and bringing Internet access across rural areas. We did provide some information at one of our last Investor Day that was back in September about how that opportunity can grow. And we still believe in that, but we're not providing any guidance at this point for 2025.

當我們展望 2025 年時，我的意思是，這實際上取決於 BEAD 計劃的推出方式。在光纖以及在農村地區鋪設和提供網路存取方面存在著巨大的機會。我們確實在 9 月的最後一次投資者日上提供了一些有關如何發展這一機會的資訊。我們仍然相信這一點，但目前我們不會為 2025 年提供任何指導。

Thanks, makes sense. So how is your order visibility this quarter? And can you provide any notes on mix? Las quarter specifically, you had noted visibility was shorter than normal due to plant shutdowns. Is that affecting the first quarter at all?

謝謝，有道理。那麼您本季的訂單可見度如何？你能提供一些關於混音的註解嗎？特別是上個季度，您注意到由於工廠關閉，能見度低於正常水平。這對第一季有影響嗎？

So from a visibility standpoint, and we mentioned this in the last quarter as well, is that all of our customers are managing inventory very tightly as they monitor the demand from their customers. So it's about 20 days out now versus maybe a few months ago or a year ago. It was closer to like 45 days. So it is something that we are monitoring. We have to be nimble in our supply chain to be able to meet that.

因此，從可見性的角度來看，我們在上個季度也提到了這一點，我們所有的客戶在監控客戶的需求時都非常嚴格地管理庫存。因此，與幾個月前或一年前相比，現在大約需要 20 天。接近45天了。所以這是我們正在監控的事情。我們的供應鏈必須靈活才能滿足此要求。

I mean, some visibility issues as we think about the first quarter is that we're in the middle of Chinese New Year. So how Asia is going to come back is a factor that we're looking at, and so they actually started placing orders again. That's a factor. And then how it ends up playing out, even with Easter coming in a little bit differently in the first quarter versus the second quarter last year is something that we're also watching.

我的意思是，我們對第一季的一些可見性問題是，我們正處於農曆新年中期。因此，亞洲將如何回歸是我們正在考慮的一個因素，因此他們實際上又開始下訂單了。這是一個因素。然後，即使第一季的復活節與去年第二季的復活節略有不同，結果如何也是我們也在關注的。

But that should give you some context. It's a little bit shorter. We are confident in our guidance that we're giving out for the first quarter, but it is a much shorter visibility than we've had historically.

但這應該會給你一些背景資訊。有點短了。我們對第一季的指導充滿信心，但其可見度比歷史上短得多。

Great. Thanks for the color.

偉大的。謝謝你的顏色。

Thank you. I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

謝謝。我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。